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The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Obama and McCain Have Breakout Game
BYLINE: By RICHARD SANDOMIR.
E-mail: sportsbiz@nytimes.com
SECTION: Section B; Column 0; Sports Desk; TV SPORTS; Pg. 13
LENGTH: 788 words
A confused-looking Richard Nixon asked, ''Sock it to me?'' (emphasis on the ''me,'' not the ''sock'') on ''Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In'' during the 1968 presidential campaign, flinging open the door for candidates to troll for votes in nontraditional ways.
So, two years after Senator Barack Obama played a Halloween guest (wearing an Obama mask) at the Clintons' costume party on ''Saturday Night Live'' -- and a few days after Senator John McCain hosted a faux QVC sale of campaign gewgaws, also on ''SNL'' -- it is a natural evolution of the electoral process that the two presidential candidates would star on election eve at halftime of ESPN's ''Monday Night Football.''
No late-night rallies could place them in front of as many supporters as the 12 million or so who were expected to watch the Steelers-Redskins game.
The surprise wasn't that Obama and McCain accepted ESPN's request (they also taped interviews with Jim Gray for CBS Radio/Westwood One's ''Monday Night'' pregame and postgame shows).
The surprise was that it took this long to so explicitly mix football and the presidential race on ''Monday Night,'' which has been alive through 10 elections.
''Maybe in the past, there was a desire to keep the election separate and not turn 'Monday Night' political,'' said Norby Williamson, an executive vice president of ESPN, which is in its first presidential election cycle with ''Monday Night.''
Two members of ABC Sports' former ''Monday Night'' team said that in their time it would have been the place of ABC News to do presidential interviews.
''ABC News obviously would have had first dibs on presidential politics,'' said Fred Gaudelli, the former producer, who now produces NBC's ''Sunday Night Football'' games. Al Michaels, who called ABC's games from 1986 to 2005 before heading to NBC, said, ''ABC News had election eve specials, and I'm sure they would have wanted to ride herd on something like this.''
Williamson said that ABC News was supportive of ESPN's monthslong pursuit of the Obama and McCain interviews and offered to promote them on ''World News Tonight.''
McCain and Obama will not be in the ESPN booth, unlike the celebrities the network paraded in front of viewers in 2006 and 2007 before realizing that the game was more important than Christian Slater. Instead, Chris Berman, working from ESPN's studios in Bristol, Conn., interviewed Obama first Monday afternoon, from Jacksonville, Fla.
Berman spoke next with McCain, who was in Indianapolis.
The order that they ran, at about 10:10 p.m. Eastern, was determined during a coin flip by Kordell Stewart, the former Steeler who is an ESPN analyst.
''He said, 'Heads, Obama; tails, McCain,' '' Williamson said. It came up heads.
The interviews were cut into three-minute segments separated by a 30-second commercial. Berman did not give either man a Bermanian nickname, so there was no need to worry about its presidential respectability.
ESPN, of course, promoted the interviews thusly: ''Obama! McCain! Boomer!'' Imagine a 1960 equivalent, CBS-style: ''Kennedy! Nixon! Uncle Walter!''
McCain played ESPN's game, using a Berman phrase to answer the question about what he wanted people to think about him as they voted.
''He. Could. Go. All. The. Way to the White House,'' McCain said, moving Berman to abandon the sober demeanor he had adopted.
Both candidates talked about high school coaches, one who taught Obama that ''this isn't about you, it's about the team,'' and one who guided McCain to appreciate literature and to ''do the honorable thing even when nobody's looking.''
Obama said he advocated a college football playoff (he told Gray, jokingly, that it would be ''one of my legislative priorities''); McCain wants to take ''significant action'' against performance-enhancing drugs.
This was not Obama's first appearance on ''Monday Night.'' He was the star of its opening segment two years ago before a Chicago Bears-St. Louis Rams game, when he was still teasing the public about a run for the White House. He spoke somberly to the camera about critical questions facing America, as if ready to announce his candidacy. ''I am ready,'' he said, putting a Bears cap on his head, ''for the Bears to go all the way, baby.'' Then he loudly hummed the first four notes of the ''Monday Night'' theme.
Only one man who has become president, Ronald Reagan, visited the ''Monday Night'' booth. Reagan was the governor of California in 1973 when he was spotted in the back of ABC's booth talking football fundamentals to John Lennon, an incongruous sight to any sensate human aware of the men's politics. Grasping the moment, Howard Cosell told Frank Gifford to talk to Reagan, and, ''I'll take the Beatle.''
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The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Beyond Election Day
BYLINE: By BOB HERBERT
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 35
LENGTH: 789 words
Conservative commentators had a lot of fun mocking Barack Obama's use of the phrase, ''the fierce urgency of now.''
Noting that it had originated with the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Senator Obama made it a cornerstone of his early campaign speeches.
Conservatives kicked the phrase around like a soccer ball. ''The fierce urgency of now,'' they would say, giggling. What does it mean?
Well, if your house is on fire and your family is still inside, that's an example of the fierce urgency of now.
Something like that is the case in the United States right now as Americans go to the polls in what is probably the most important presidential election since World War II. A mind-boggling series of crises is threatening not just the short-term future but the very viability of the nation.
The economy is sinking into quicksand. The financial sector, guardian of the nation's wealth, is leaning on the crutch of a trillion-dollar taxpayer bailout. The giant auto companies -- for decades the high-powered, gas-guzzling, exhaust-spewing pride of American industry -- are on life support.
As the holiday shopping season approaches, the nation is hemorrhaging jobs, the value of the family home has plunged, retirement plans are shrinking like ice cubes on a hot stove and economists are telling us the recession has only just begun.
It's in that atmosphere that voters today will be choosing between the crisis-management skills of Senator Obama, who has enlisted Joe Biden as aide-de-camp, and those of Senator John McCain, who is riding to the rescue with Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber in tow.
As important as this choice has become, the election is just a small first step. What Americans really have to decide is what kind of country they want.
Right now the United States is a country in which wealth is funneled, absurdly, from the bottom to the top. The richest 1 percent of Americans now holds close to 40 percent of all the wealth in the nation and maintains an iron grip on the levers of government power.
This is not only unfair, but self-defeating. The U.S. cannot thrive with its fabulous wealth concentrated at the top and the middle class on its knees. (No one even bothers to talk about the poor anymore.) How to correct this imbalance is one of the biggest questions facing the country.
The U.S. is also a country in which blissful ignorance is celebrated, and intellectual excellence (the key to 21st century advancement) is not just given short shrift, but is ridiculed. Paris Hilton and Britney Spears are cultural icons. The average American watches television a mind-numbing 4 1/2 hours a day.
At the same time, our public school system is plagued with some of the highest dropout rates in the industrialized world. Math and science? Forget about it. Too tough for these TV watchers, or too boring, or whatever.
''When I compare our high schools with what I see when I'm traveling abroad,'' said Bill Gates, ''I am terrified for our work force of tomorrow.''
The point here is that as we approach the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the United States is in deep, deep trouble. Yet instead of looking for creative, 21st-century solutions to these enormous problems, too many of our so-called leaders are behaving like clowns, or worse -- spouting garbage in the pubic sphere that hearkens back to the 1940s and '50s.
Thoughtful, well-educated men and women are denounced as elites, and thus the enemies of ordinary Americans. Attempts to restore a semblance of fiscal sanity to a government that has been looted with an efficiency that would have been envied by the mob, are derided as subversive -- the work of socialists, Marxists, Communists.
In 2008!
In North Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Dole, a conservative Republican, is in a tough fight for re-election against a Democratic state senator, Kay Hagan. So Ms. Dole ran a television ad that showed a close-up of Ms. Hagan's face while the voice of a different woman asserts, ''There is no God!''
Americans have to decide if they want a country that tolerates this kind of debased, backward behavior. Or if they want a country that aspires to true greatness -- a country that stands for more than the mere rhetoric of equality, freedom, opportunity and justice.
That decision will require more than casting a vote in one presidential election. It will require a great deal of reflective thought and hard work by a committed citizenry. The great promise of America hinges on a government that works, openly and honestly, for the broad interests of the American people, as opposed to the narrow benefit of the favored, wealthy few.
By all means, vote today. But that is just the first step toward meaningful change.
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LOAD-DATE: November 4, 2008
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3 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Minute by Minute, a Final Hectic Day on the Campaign Trail
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 21
LENGTH: 2172 words
The final full day of campaigning was a blur of rallies, plane rides and meet-and-greet encounters for the candidates, and at every step of the way four New York Times reporters were there to chronicle the hectic final push. The following are dispatches from Elisabeth Bumiller on the McCain campaign, Jeff Zeleny on the Obama campaign, John M. Broder on the Biden campaign, and Julie Bosman on the Palin campaign.
8:40 a.m.
Senator Barack Obama leaves his hotel in Jacksonville, Fla., where he had arrived seven hours before on a late-night flight from Ohio. As he went to the gym for a morning workout, he did not say anything, but he had received word around 8 a.m. that his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, had died after a battle with cancer. In talking about her later, he called Mrs. Dunham ''a quiet hero.''
9:30 a.m.
Well, here we are in Tampa, Fla., at Senator John McCain's first stop on a seven-state, 20-hour odyssey across America. He is already running a half hour late. Not a good sign. ''Hurry up! Hurry up!'' yell Secret Service agents at reporters scurrying from the campaign plane into the waiting motorcade.
Within minutes, Mr. McCain arrives at his rally at Raymond James Stadium, the home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a Barack Obama-sized site with a 65,000-person capacity. Mr. McCain is not actually in the stadium, which sits empty on a warm Florida morning, but across the street in the parking lot. The crowd here is small, in the hundreds, but Mr. McCain is tearing into his stump speech as if he were addressing the Rose Bowl, although with a bit of sleep in his voice. He got to his hotel in Coral Gables, the Biltmore, at 1:30 a.m., after a midnight rally in Miami.
''With this kind of enthusiasm, this kind of intensity, we will win Florida!'' he shouts. He seems to be waking up. Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida is here, as is Senator Mel Martinez, also of Florida.
Mr. McCain runs through a truncated version of his stump speech. Mr. Obama cannot be trusted to run the country, he will raise your taxes, kill jobs, and so on.
Wow, now he is already winding up. ''Fight for a new direction for our country!'' And ''fight to clean up the mess of corruption!''
He is already done. His speech clocked in at a little more than 13 minutes. This might be a record.
11:03 a.m.
Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri steps to the microphone to introduce Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. in Lees Summit, Mo., and notes that the Republican vice-presidential nominee, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is also in Missouri this morning, at a rally in Jefferson City.
The crowd boos. Ms. McCaskill hushes them. ''As Barack Obama says: 'Don't boo. Vote.' ''
Ms. McCaskill then adds, speaking of Mr. Biden, ''Barack Obama chose the very best person in the country who could be president of the United States, and, well, let's just say, John McCain didn't.''
11:15 a.m.
For more than three hours, supporters have been filling the seats of the hall in anticipation of Mr. Obama's visit to Veterans Memorial Auditorium in Jacksonville, not far from the banks of the St. Johns River. Then the candidate arrives.
''I have just one word for you, Florida: Tomorrow,'' Mr. Obama says, drawing huge bursts of applause. ''We are one day away from changing the United States of America.''
With Mr. McCain already well into his day, was Mr. Obama sleeping in this morning? No, his aides say.
After arriving at the Hyatt in downtown Jacksonville in the early morning hours, he emerged from the hotel at 8:40 a.m. -- yes, that was the Democratic nominee in a ball cap and black sweat pants -- and took a short ride to a Gold's Gym. For about 45 minutes, he worked out.
When he returned to the hotel at 9:28 a.m., he went into seclusion. Aides said he had breakfast, made phone calls and met with a few advisers who were briefing him on his day, which includes rallies in Jacksonville, in North Carolina and in Virginia.
Why only three states for Mr. Obama, when Mr. McCain is racing to seven over the next 20 hours? First, aides said, the Obama rallies are held in large arenas, not airport hangars, so they take more time. And second, they said, the rallies are intended to sign up supporters to help on Election Day, so it is important to have a big crowd, rather than just a quick stop for the local cameras.
11:26 a.m.
Yes, Mr. Obama is using a teleprompter for his speech in Jacksonville, but apparently he is not reading it carefully. About 10 minutes into his address, Mr. Obama is talking about the television commercials that Republicans have been showing against him.
''Here in Ohio,'' Mr. Obama begins. He pauses momentarily, as people in the crowd shout at him. Realizing his mistake, he quickly corrects himself. ''Florida!''
''I've been traveling too much,'' Mr. Obama says, before continuing with his remarks.
11:50 a.m.
Stop No. 2 for Mr. McCain, still some 20 minutes behind schedule. Tennessee's electoral votes are not up for grabs in this reliably red state, but Mr. McCain has descended into Blountsville in this far northeastern corner to reach into television markets in southwestern Virginia and a bit of North Carolina, two states he desperately needs to win.
We are in an airplane hangar and the crowd is roaring and big, in the thousands. Mr. McCain's campaign plane is parked right behind him as a backdrop for the television pictures. The day is gorgeous, sunny and crisp. The loudspeakers are terrible.
''This microphone is brought to you by the Democratic National Committee,'' Mr. McCain intones, to laughter.
And here he is, Joe the Plumber. Big boos as Mr. McCain says, yet again, that Mr. Obama wants to ''spread the wealth around.'' And ''he's in the far left lane of American politics.'' And he has never taken on the leaders of his own party. And he said he would sit down unconditionally with dictators. And so on. Mr. McCain is pumped up.
''The Mac is back!'' he shouts.
On the plane from Tampa, someone asked Mark Salter, Mr. McCain's close adviser, how he planned to get through the day. ''Crystal meth,'' he replied, not missing a beat. ''Me, personally, that's how I'm going to do it.'' He was kidding. But he did not bother to say he was speaking off the record.
12:36 p.m.
The Palin entourage just arrived in Jefferson City, right in the center of Missouri. We are at a rally staged on the steps of the State Capitol, on a dazzling, sunny 70-degree afternoon. As the reporters are ushered to their workspace, a few people in the crowd throw out a few stray heckles. ''Come on, reporters, why don't you do a good job for once!'' an elderly woman calls out. ''Booo, liberals!'' another man shouts.
There is a large crowd here, but nowhere near the estimate of 20,000 people that a campaign staff member just told reporters. There is little sign of Mr. McCain -- most of the signs say ''Country First'' or ''Reform, Prosperity, Peace.'' A group of women wearing T-shirts that say ''Sometimes it takes a woman to clean house'' are chanting ''Sarah! Sarah!'' and the song ''Everyday People,'' by Sly and the Family Stone, a Palin favorite, is playing.
Sounding hoarse, Ms. Palin introduces Hank Williams Jr., who delivers an off-key rendition of the national anthem and a song about the ''left-wing liberal media,'' which makes the crowd go wild.
Ms. Palin delivers a 25-minute speech, attacking Mr. Obama for his tax proposals, and making a passing reference to the weather. ''The sun is shining on his plans for where he wants to take America,'' she says of Mr. Obama. ''His whole tax plan is so phony that it's already starting to unravel.''
She points out a sign in the crowd: ''Like that sign -- not just drill, baby, drill and mine, baby, mine, but vote, baby, vote!''
1:50 p.m.
Stop No. 3 Mr. McCain, in Moon Township, Pa. This is one of the great datelines. In fact it is very much of this world -- the site of the Pittsburgh airport and conveniently located in Western Pennsylvania, home to all those pro-gun, working-class voters that Mr. McCain is trying to call his own. Representative John P. Murtha, a Democrat who represents the region, went so far last month as to call it a ''racist area,'' a remark the McCain campaign rejected.
We are in another airplane hangar, the crowd not so big as before. Mr. McCain has just started speaking and he is already shouting that it is time ''to fight to get out economy out of the ditch.'' That's our cue, time to go. He has got this aerobic speechifying down pat.
Forgot to mention that at the last stop he brought up Tina Fey's impersonation of his running mate, Ms. Palin, on ''Saturday Night Live.'' Mr. McCain was on the show himself on Saturday and met Ms. Fey.
''I really believe that Sarah Palin and Tina Fey were separated at birth, I really do,'' Mr. McCain told the last crowd. ''I really do.''
2:30 p.m.
Mr. Obama hustles up the stairs to his campaign plane, boarding a 53-minute flight for Charlotte, N.C. Since his rally ended more than two hours ago, Mr. Obama has conducted a series of radio interviews, including one with Ann Compton of ABC News.
Here are highlights:
Ms. Compton: Best moment of campaign?
Mr. Obama: The Iowa caucus night was wonderful.
Ms. Compton: Was there a worst moment? Or what keeps you up at night?
Mr. Obama: The night we lost New Hampshire was tough. We had been 10 points up according to the polls going into Election Day and lost by two, and that's one of the reasons why we take nothing for granted in this race and we don't believe those polls.
3:01 p.m.
Mr. Biden, ordinarily the most superstitious of politicians, can smell victory.
''There's something in the air, guys,'' he tells a gaggle of reporters on his plane shortly before landing in Columbus, Ohio, for the first of two appearances in the state this afternoon.
You can see the confidence in Mr. Biden's smile and his new accessibility to the reporters who have accompanied him for two months. He spoke to them for 20 minutes on his plane, the first time he has done so since early September. He said he had been avoiding his press pack since one news organization reported some comments he had thought were off the record.
3:55 p.m.
Stop No. 4 for Mr. McCain, the Indianapolis airport. The tarmac is sunny and pleasant; beautiful golden late-afternoon light. But Mr. McCain's presence here on the eve of Election Day means he is still battling Mr. Obama's incursions into this longtime red state. Not great news for him, but polls show him tied.
Adding to the troubles, there is something wrong with the speaker system. Again? He repeats his dig about the microphone being ''brought to you courtesy of the Democratic National Committee.''
He is hard to hear, and on top of that, he is beginning to sound like he has a large frog in his throat. Many of those traveling on Mr. McCain's campaign plane have a spectacular cold, and it sounds like the candidate has caught it himself.
''He's getting a little scratchy,'' Mr. Salter says. ''Only has to do it three more times today.''
4:15 p.m.
Mr. Obama steps off his plane in Charlotte without talking to reporters.
4:30 p.m.
Mr. Obama announces in a statement that his grandmother died about 12 hours earlier. He waited to make the public announcement, his aides said, to get through part of his campaign day.
5 p.m.
Mr. Obama tosses a tiny red and blue football into the air as he makes calls to North Carolina voters. On the fifth call, he turns his back to cameras as he talks about home health care, saying, ''My grandmother was able to stay in a home all the way until recently.''
5:48 p.m.
Stop No. 5 for the McCain campaign, Roswell, N.M. We are here in the supposed land of space aliens on a warm desert evening. Another airport rally, another rendition of the speech.
''We need to win New Mexico tomorrow!'' Mr. McCain hollers. ''Get your neighbors to the polls. I need your vote!''
Now here is something really different: Out of the blue, he shouts out, ''I am pleased to announce that I have received the alien endorsement!''
This gets a huge laugh. Two more stops to go.
8:21 p.m.
Stop No. 6. We're at Henderson Pavilion, an outdoor amphitheater in Las Vegas, in a state leaning in Mr. Obama's direction. Mr. McCain is shouting again. ''What happens in Las Vegas stays in Las Vegas!'' he says. And then, ''What starts here is going to end with us winning this election tomorrow!''
The crowd roar is huge. Mr. McCain doesn't look too worse for the wear, considering that he left his hotel nearly 17 hours ago. Can't say the same for the press corps.
He mentions out of blue that his running mate, Ms. Palin, has ''never been to a Georgetown cocktail party, but she knows how to lead this nation!''
Hard to believe this is still not over.
10:25 p.m.
As Mr. Obama pulls up to his final rally of the campaign at the Prince William County Fairgrounds near Manassas, Va., a bus driver in the motorcade says, ''Oh, Lord, look at all those people.''
A sea of people stretches on to hillsides in the distance, beyond where the eye can see.
As he walks onstage to Bruce Springsteen's ''The Rising,'' Mr. Obama sums up his surroundings: ''What a scene. What a crowd. Wow.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Senator Barack Obama on Monday evening told an audience in Charlotte, N.C., about the death of his grandmother. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
Senator John McCain, on the third stop of the day on Monday, spoke in Moon Township, Pa. (PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHEN CROWLEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., on Monday on a flight to Columbus, Ohio. At right, Hank Williams Jr. sang at a rally for Gov. Sarah Palin in Jefferson City, Mo. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY OZIER MUHAMMAD/THE NEW YORK TIMES
TODD HEISLER/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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4 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Obama Pays Tribute to His Grandmother After She Dies
BYLINE: By JEFF ZELENY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 529 words
DATELINE: CHARLOTTE, N.C.
Madelyn Dunham, who watched from afar as her only grandson rapidly ascended the ranks of American politics to the brink of the presidency, did not live to see whether he was elected.
Mrs. Dunham, 86, Senator Barack Obama's grandmother, died late Sunday in Hawaii after battling cancer, which Mr. Obama announced upon arriving here on Monday for a campaign stop on the eve of Election Day.
''She has gone home,'' said Mr. Obama, his voice tinged with emotion as he briefly spoke of her death at a campaign rally here. ''She died peacefully in her sleep with my sister at her side, so there's great joy instead of tears.''
Mr. Obama learned of his grandmother's death at 8 a.m. on Monday, aides said, but appeared at a morning rally in Florida without making an announcement. A written statement was issued around 4:30 p.m., in the name of Mr. Obama and his sister, before he spoke at an evening rally in Charlotte. The delay was intended to allow his sister, who was six hours behind in Hawaii, time to take care of a few details before the death became public.
Mrs. Dunham was the final remaining immediate family member who helped raise Mr. Obama during his teenage years in Hawaii. He called her Toot, his shorthand for ''tutu,'' a Hawaiian term for grandparent.
Mr. Obama left the campaign trail late last month to travel to Honolulu to bid his grandmother farewell. He spent part of two days with her, as she lay gravely ill in the small apartment where he lived from age 10 to 18.
While Mrs. Dunham was too sick to travel to see her grandson on the campaign trail, Mr. Obama and other family members said that she closely followed his bid for the presidency through cable television. Yet she became a figure in his campaign, seen through images in television commercials intended to give him a biographical anchor.
Mrs. Dunham, who grew up near Augusta, Kan., moved with her husband, Stanley Dunham, to Hawaii.
In the early stages of his candidacy, Mr. Obama spoke wistfully about his grandparents, whose all-American biography was suddenly critical to establishing his own American story. He spoke of how his grandmother worked on B-29s at a Boeing plant in Wichita.
For Mr. Obama, the loss came on the final full day of his presidential campaign against Senator John McCain. Campaigning in New Mexico, Mr. McCain offered his condolences and said: ''He is in our thoughts and prayers. We mourn his loss, and we are with him and his family today.''
The illness of Mr. Obama's grandmother had been weighing on him in recent weeks, friends said, which is why he insisted on interrupting his schedule to visit her late last month. While she was gravely ill, aides said, he carried on a limited conversation with her. He kept the visit to one day, advisers said, partly out of her own insistence that people not create a fuss.
''She was one of those quiet heroes that we have all across America,'' Mr. Obama said. ''They're not famous. Their names are not in the newspapers, but each and every day they work hard.
''They aren't seeking the limelight. All they try to do is just do the right thing. In this crowd there are a lot of quiet heroes like that.''
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The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Your Tube
BYLINE: By SARAH WHEATON
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 24
LENGTH: 178 words
2008 was the year that YouTube became a mainstream tool for political communication.
Most-Watched Obama Video: Senator Barack Obama's sweeping exploration of race in America, delivered in March, in the midst of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. controversy. More than 5.1 million views, despite its length -- 37 minutes, 39 seconds -- marking YouTube's emergence as a vehicle for substantive discourse, not just silly clips.
Most-Watched McCain Video: ''He's the biggest celebrity in the world,'' this ad for Senator John McCain said, as it flashed images of Britney Spears, Paris Hilton and Mr. Obama speaking in Berlin. ''But is he ready to lead.'' Nearly 2.2 million views on YouTube. It is also responsible for Ms. Hilton's response: ''I'm, like, totally ready to lead.''
Other big hits:
ObamaGirl. Her crush has been celebrated 10.5 million times.
The McCain Girls' disco parody, ''It's Raining McCain.'' More than two million views.
will.i.am's ''Yes, We Can.'' Mr. Obama's words set to music has been watched almost 11.3 million times.
SARAH WHEATON
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The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
The '08 Campaign: Sea Change for Politics as We Know It
BYLINE: By ADAM NAGOURNEY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1115 words
The 2008 race for the White House that comes to an end on Tuesday fundamentally upended the way presidential campaigns are fought in this country, a legacy that has almost been lost with all the attention being paid to the battle between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.
It has rewritten the rules on how to reach voters, raise money, organize supporters, manage the news media, track and mold public opinion, and wage -- and withstand -- political attacks, including many carried by blogs that did not exist four years ago. It has challenged the consensus view of the American electoral battleground, suggesting that Democrats can at a minimum be competitive in states and regions that had long been Republican strongholds.
The size and makeup of the electorate could be changed because of efforts by Democrats to register and turn out new black, Hispanic and young voters. This shift may have long-lasting ramifications for what the parties do to build enduring coalitions, especially if intensive and technologically-driven voter turnout programs succeed in getting more people to the polls. Mr. McCain's advisers expect a record-shattering turnout of 130 million people, many being brought into the political process for the first time.
''I think we'll be analyzing this election for years as a seminal, transformative race,'' said Mark McKinnon, a senior adviser to President Bush's campaigns in 2000 and 2004. ''The year campaigns leveraged the Internet in ways never imagined. The year we went to warp speed. The year the paradigm got turned upside down and truly became bottom up instead of top down.''
To a considerable extent, Republicans and Democrats say, this is a result of the way that the Obama campaign sought to understand and harness the Internet (and other forms of so-called new media) to organize supporters and to reach voters who no longer rely primarily on information from newspapers and television. The platforms included YouTube, which did not exist in 2004, and the cellphone text messages that the campaign was sending out to supporters on Monday to remind them to vote.
''We did some very innovative things on the data side, and we did some Internet,'' said Sara Taylor, who was the White House political director during Mr. Bush's re-election campaign. ''But only 40 percent of the country had broadband back then. You now have people who don't have home telephones anymore. And Obama has done a tremendous job of waging a campaign through the new media challenge.
''I don't know about you, but I see an Obama Internet ad every day. And I have for six months.''
Even more crucial to the way this campaign has transformed politics has been Mr. Obama's success at using the Internet to build a huge network of contributors that permitted him to raise enough money -- after declining to participate in the public financing system -- to expand the map and compete in traditionally Republican states.
No matter who wins the election, Republicans and Democrats say, Mr. Obama's efforts in places like Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia -- organizing and advertising to voters who previously had little exposure to Democratic ideas and candidates -- will force future candidates to think differently.
''The great impact that this election will have for the future is that it killed public financing for all time,'' said Mr. McCain's chief campaign strategist, Steve Schmidt. ''That means the next Republican presidential campaign, hopefully a re-election for John McCain, will need to be a billion-dollar affair to challenge what the Democrats have accomplished with the use of the Internet and viral marketing to communicate and raise money.''
''It was a profound leap forward technologically,'' Mr. Schmidt added. ''Republicans will have to figure out how to compete with this in order to become competitive again at a national level and in House and Senate races.''
This transformation did not happen this year alone. In 2000, Mr. Bush's campaign, lead by Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman, pioneered the use of microtargeting to find and appeal to potential new supporters. In 2004, the presidential campaign of Howard Dean was widely credited with being the first to see the potential power of the Internet to raise money and sign up volunteers, a platform that Mr. Obama tremendously expanded.
''They were Apollo 11, and we were the Wright Brothers,'' said Joe Trippi, the manager of Mr. Dean's campaign.
Terry Nelson, who was the political director of the Bush campaign in 2004, said that the evolution was challenging campaign operatives who worked for every presidential campaign, and would continue in 2012 and beyond.
''We are in the midst of a fundamental transformation of how campaigns are run,'' Mr. Nelson said. ''And it's not over yet.''
The changes go beyond what Mr. Obama did and reflect a cultural shift in voters, producing an audience that is at once better informed, more skeptical and, from reading blogs, sometimes trafficking in rumors or suspect information. As a result, this new electorate tends to be more questioning of what it is told by campaigns and often uses the Web to do its own fact-checking.
''You do focus groups and people say, 'I saw that ad and I went to this Web site to check it,' '' said David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager. ''They are policing the campaigns.''
Mr. Schmidt said the speed and diversity of the news cycle had broken down the traditional way that voters received information and had given campaigns opportunities, and challenges, in trying to manage the news.
''The news cycle is hyperaccelerated and driven by new players on the landscape, like Politico and Huffington Post, which cause competition for organizations like The A.P. where there is a high premium on being first,'' he said. ''This hyperaccelerates a cable-news cycle driven to conflict and drama and trivia.''
Among the biggest changes this year is the intense new interest in politics, reflected in jumps in voters registration, early voting and attendance at Mr. Obama's rallies. To no small extent, that is a reflection on the unusual interest stirred by his campaign. Thus, it is hardly clear that a future candidate who appropriated all the innovations that Mr. Obama and his campaign tried would necessarily have the same success as Mr. Obama.
''Without the candidate who excites people,'' Mr. Plouffe said, ''you can have the greatest strategy and machinery and it won't matter.''
Mr. Trippi, who worked for one of Mr. Obama's rivals in the Democratic primary, former Senator John Edwards, said: ''It has all come together for one guy, Barack Obama. But now that it's happened, it's a permanent change.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Volunteers for Barack Obama in Chicago, top
a campaign office in Florida, middle
his presence on the Web, above. The Obama campaign's use of the Internet to organize supporters and to reach voters has been cited as playing a large role in upending how presidential races are fought. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY YANA PASKOVA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
ERIC THAYER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
PETER WYNN THOMPSON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES) (pg.A24)
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The New York Times
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Nominees Pack In Visits to G.O.P.-Leaning States as Campaign Closes
BYLINE: By JEFF ZELENY and ELISABETH BUMILLER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 23
LENGTH: 1195 words
DATELINE: JACKSONVILLE, Fla.
A campaign waged under the specter of war and financial crisis drew to an anxious finish on Monday as Senators Barack Obama and John McCain raced across nine states and asked voters on both sides to discount polls and predictions on the closing day of a two-year pursuit of the presidency.
Mr. Obama surrendered the race to the judgment of the American people as he told a booming crowd here, ''Now, it's all about who wants it more, who believes in it more.'' Mr. McCain sought to motivate Republicans who worried aloud that it could be a bleak election, declaring, ''The Mac is back!''
In the final hours of his second bid for the presidency, Mr. McCain dashed through Republican-leaning states from Florida to Indiana and New Mexico to Nevada. He stopped in Tennessee, hoping to reach voters in adjacent North Carolina and Virginia, and he swung by only one normally Democratic state, Pennsylvania. He planned to return home for a rally in Arizona in the small hours of the night.
Mr. Obama, confident in his standing on Democratic terrain, devoted his final day of campaigning by trying to push Florida, North Carolina and Virginia into his column. He pressed ahead after he awoke to news that his grandmother, the woman chiefly responsible for his upbringing, had died in Hawaii.
The election eve travels of both men, as well as their running mates, offered a viewer's guide of the states whose outcomes will play a large role in settling who will become the nation's 44th president.
Their last-minute efforts were amplified by their muscular ground organizations and unprecedented advertising barrages in all forms. The Obama campaign tested its text-messaging program to remind voters, particularly young ones, to go to the polls. The McCain campaign activated its automated phone system to check with any voter who had shown an interest in the Republican ticket.
In their pitches to voters, each candidate struck an optimistic chord, delivering a few gracious words about his opponent and offering a vow to change Washington. Yet neither refrained from reprising the piercing criticisms that have become the soundtrack for the five-month general election fight.
''At the end of this long race, I want to congratulate him on the tough race that he has fought,'' Mr. Obama said of Mr. McCain in a morning speech here at Veterans Memorial Auditorium. ''He can point to a few items where he has broken with President Bush, but when it comes from the central issue of this election, the plain truth is John McCain has stood with George Bush.''
Mr. McCain delivered a truncated version of his stump speech at each stop but grew hoarser as the day progressed. His aides said he appeared to be catching the bad cold that had waylaid many others in the petri dish of his campaign plane. By late afternoon in Indiana, he was sucking on throat lozenges to try to finish the marathon.
''My friends, you know that I've been fighting for this country since I was 17 years old, and I have the scars to prove it,'' he said at a rally in Indianapolis as he battled to prevent Mr. Obama from taking a state that has not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.
Four hours later, Mr. McCain dropped out of the sky into the supposed home of space aliens, Roswell, N.M. ''I am pleased to announce that I have received the alien endorsement,'' he told the crowd, to a roar of laughter.
As the contest headed to its finish, an air of normalcy surrounded Mr. Obama. There was no rush of friends or advisers on the plane for the final flights. His demeanor, at least from his public appearances, seemed the same as it has for months. His schedule of rallies was no different than at any point in the general election.
Only a few close advisers knew that at 8 a.m. he had received word from his sister that his 86-year-old grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, had died. When he arrived at a rally, he spoke briefly about his grandmother, whom he visited last month in Honolulu.
''She has gone home,'' Mr. Obama said, his voice tinged with emotion. ''She died peacefully in her sleep with my sister at her side, so there's great joy instead of tears.''
Mr. McCain, as he sprinted through seven states, warned voters at every stop of the differences between the outlooks and policies of the two tickets. He did not dally, spending 30 minutes at each stop, with his argument boiled down to fit the frenzied moment.
''Senator Obama's running to punish the successful,'' Mr. McCain said at his opening stop in Tampa, Fla. ''I'm running to make everyone successful.''
The mood on the McCain campaign plane was upbeat and punchy throughout the day as Mr. McCain's advisers continued to hammer their belief that the polls were tightening and that Mr. McCain's chances of winning the presidency were difficult but not impossible.
''Winning 270 is right in the cards,'' Rick Davis, the campaign manager, insisted around midnight Sunday, as Mr. McCain's plane headed from New Hampshire to Florida.
Mr. McCain drew stirring applause from his crowds -- as well as jeers directed at the Democratic rival -- when he said Mr. Obama wanted to ''spread the wealth around,'' Adding,
''He's in the far left lane of American politics.''
The barnstorming rallies, the dawn-to-dusk television commercials and the armies of volunteers flooding neighborhoods disguised how the United States now elects its president: with millions of ballots already having been cast in early voting.
In Ohio, voting lines looped in and out of doors, upstairs and around corners at the registrar's office in Columbus, with a record number of voters adding their ballots to those that have been collected for nearly a month. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than two to one.
In Florida, about 37 percent of registered voters have already cast ballots, state officials said, setting the stage for potentially record-breaking turnout.
In Virginia, where more restrictions are placed on early voting, the state has processed 465,962 absentee ballots. And more than 300,000 Virginians voted in person by an absentee ballot. In 2004, a total of 222,059 absentee ballots were cast.
Worried about the outlook in Virginia, where a Democrat has not won the presidential race in more than four decades, Mr. McCain's campaign sued the state's election board on Monday. The campaign asserted that the absentee ballots had not been mailed on time to members of the military serving overseas.
Mr. Obama held his final rally in Virginia, a sign Democrats were waging an all-out push for the state, which is seen as a barometer for the fight with Mr. McCain. In Virginia and around the country, both sides are keeping a close eye on the weather .
''I think if it rained mud, it won't make a difference,'' said L. Douglas Wilder, the former governor of Virginia, who was the state's first black chief executive. ''They're coming out. Trust me, they're coming out.''
The First Results Are In
DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. (AP) -- Mr. Obama easily won early Tuesday in Dixville Notch, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on. Mr. Obama defeated Mr. McCain 15 to 6.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Residents lined up to cast early ballots at the city courthouse in Lafayette, Ind., on Monday, the last full day of campaigning in a long presidential race.(PHOTOGRAPH BY YANA PASKOVA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
Left, a woman handed out Obama campaign material Monday in Midland, Pa., while her baby slept . Right, Carole Holland, 72, a part-time special-needs teacher, made her views clear in Sarasota, Fla. Both candidates struck an optimistic chord on election eve.(PHOTOGRAPH BY BEATRICE DE GEA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
(PHOTOGRAPH BY CHIP LITHERLAND FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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USA TODAY
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Senator mourns loss of his grandmother
BYLINE: Kathy Kiely
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 341 words
CHARLOTTE -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama suffered a heavy loss on the eve of the election that he hopes will win him the White House. Madelyn Dunham, the grandmother who helped raise him, died from cancer in Honolulu. She was 86.
"She was one of those quiet heroes we have all across America," Obama said at a rally here, deviating from his stump speech. "I'm not going to talk about it too long because it's hard to talk about."
Someone in the crowd called out: "We're sorry."
Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his wife, Cindy, offered their "deepest condolences to Barack Obama and his family as they grieve the loss of their beloved grandmother."
"Our thoughts and prayers go out to them as they remember and celebrate the life of someone who had such a profound impact in their lives," the McCains said in a statement.
Obama learned of his grandmother's passing around 8 a.m. ET Monday in Florida, several hours after she died in her Hawaii home, adviser Robert Gibbs said. He didn't mention it in his first speech in Jacksonville. The campaign did not release the news until afternoon, as Obama arrived here.
The news was not unexpected. Obama broke off campaigning late last month to make a 22-hour visit to his grandmother, noting her health was failing.
"She's been the rock of my family," Obama said on CBS on Oct. 8. "She worked very hard all of her life, and she made a lot of sacrifices on my behalf."
Born Madelyn Payne in 1922, Dunham grew up in Kansas and attended the University of Washington. She married Stanley Dunham in 1940 and worked as a Boeing aircraft inspector during World War II. In 1960, they moved to Hawaii with daughter, Stanley Ann. That's where the daughter would meet Obama's father, Barack Hussein Obama Sr., a Kenyan student at the University of Hawaii.
The Dunhams raised Obama while his mother and sister lived in Indonesia during the 1970s and he remained in Hawaii to finish high school. In 1970, Dunham became one of the first two female vice presidents of the Bank of Hawaii.
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The Washington Post
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
Congressional Republicans Work to Thwart Democratic Gains
BYLINE: Paul Kane; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 988 words
In the closing days of the campaign, congressional Republicans and their allies have launched a furious, last-minute effort to prevent Democrats from making significant gains in the House and Senate today.
One embattled incumbent, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), accused his opponent, Al Franken, of secretly orchestrating a lawsuit alleging that Coleman's wife received $75,000 for no-show consulting work. Another, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), yesterday accused a federal judge and prosecutors of overseeing an "unjust trial" that resulted in Stevens's conviction on felony charges for failing to disclose gifts.
And in Wyoming, Vice President Cheney made a rare campaign appearance in his home state to support the Republican running for the House seat that Cheney himself held from 1979 to 1989 without facing a competitive reelection fight. The race is considered almost a tossup today.
Senate Democrats held out hope of gaining the nine seats needed for a filibuster-proof 60 seats, while House Democrats could add more than two dozen seats to their ranks, which would give them control of more than 60 percent of the chamber's 435 seats.
"We're going to pick up a significant number of seats that will change the face of the Senate," Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said yesterday. Calling a 60-seat majority "possible but not likely," Schumer said a Democratic majority in the upper 50s would result in sweeping changes as long as Sen. Barack Obama is elected president.
Girding for large losses, Republicans said their incumbents could win if they succeed in establishing an identity independent of President Bush, Sen. John McCain and congressional GOP leaders. "Republican candidates that have established their own personal brand and have framed their races around a personal choice will survive this," said Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Only a handful of House Democrats are considered vulnerable, while more than 50 Republican seats are in play. The NRCC invested $600,000 to target one prominent Democrat, Rep. John P. Murtha of Pennsylvania, a 34-year House member who has been a leading opponent of the Iraq war. Murtha raised more than $1 million in the last 13 days, and former president Bill Clinton campaigned for him in Johnstown, Pa., yesterday.
Senate Republicans have increasingly framed their reelection battles as a way to rein in a possible Obama White House and raised the specter of Democrats capturing 60 seats. A Gallup Poll last week showed voters split on the question of which party should control Congress if Obama wins, with 48 percent favoring Republicans and 47 percent favoring Democrats.
Just a few races may decide whether Democrats reach 60 seats. Republicans have given up hope in three states with retiring GOP incumbents, and Democrats hold leads in four others: New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Alaska. If Democrats win those seven races, they would need to win two of the four races in Minnesota, Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi.
Holding a narrow lead, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) continued raising funds through the weekend, sending out missives from former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in recent days. After some worries last week, Democrats were buoyed by internal polls suggesting Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich had opened a sizable lead over Stevens.
Stevens, the Senate's senior Republican, bought ad time for a two-minute commercial that was expected to air last night, one week after his conviction. Yesterday, after a juror in the trial was reprimanded for lying to the judge about her father's death to get out of jury deliberations [Story, A15], he said in a statement that it was "now even clearer this was an unjust trial and a flawed verdict."
Some races saw the final moments of the campaign turn toward personal attacks.
At a debate in Georgia, former state representative Jim Martin (D) questioned his opponent, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), about whether he had inappropriately used political funds for golf vacations with lobbyists. Chambliss denied the allegation and accused Martin of relying heavily on liberal donations that are out of step with Georgia's political leanings. By Georgia law, a candidate must get more than 50 percent of the vote to win the race, and with an independent in the race, it's possible the race won't be resolved until a Dec. 2 runoff.
But no Senate race has gotten quite as personal as the one in Minnesota, where three candidates, the political parties and outside groups will spend well in excess of $50 million, making it the most expensive in the nation.
In a debate Sunday, Coleman accused comedian-turned-candidate Franken of working secretly to promote a lawsuit that a disgruntled Texas businessman filed against a Minnesota investment firm executive, which alleged the businessman steered $75,000 to the consulting firm at which Coleman's wife is employed.
Coleman denied the allegation, just as Franken rejected the charge that he was behind the lawsuit. The DSCC is airing ads showing Coleman refusing to answer questions from local reporters about the allegations, which prompted Coleman to put up his own ads accusing his opponents of attacking his wife's character. Republicans, for their part, are airing ads accusing Franken of not being "fit for office" because of his past satirical writings, including a guest column for Playboy that was allegedly demeaning toward women.
Trailing in North Carolina, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) launched a second round of ads last weekend questioning whether state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) supported a "godless" agenda because Hagan attended a fundraiser at the Boston home of a board member for a group espousing atheist views. Hagan has responded with ads forcefully declaring her Christianity and accusing Dole of "bearing false witness."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Eric Miller -- Reuters; Sen. Norm Coleman, left, and Democrat Al Franken have waged a spirited battle in Minnesota, with Dean Barkley, center, mounting a third-party campaign.
IMAGE; Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) trails in North Carolina despite late aggressive ads.
IMAGE; State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) has responded forcefully against Dole.
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The Washington Post
November 4, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
Running In Place: The Predictable Election
BYLINE: Robert G. Kaiser; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1407 words
Election Day at last -- the never-ending campaign is finally over. Now we wait anxiously for the result, wondering whose campaign strategy, whose tactics, whose television commercials and whose organization has won the prize.
That's one way to look at it -- arguably, the wrong way. What if all the hubbub, the $2.4 billion spent, was a waste of time and money? Maybe the outcome was predictable in August -- or even earlier.
On Aug. 22, three days before the Democratic National Convention, the Washington Post-ABC poll said Barack Obama led John McCain by 49 to 45 percent among likely voters.
That was what the pollsters call "a snapshot," not a prediction. But at about the same time, in late August, Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political science professor, made his quadrennial prediction of the November result using a mathematical formula he has applied to every presidential general election since 1952: Obama 54.3, McCain 45.7. (Abramowitz's formula calculates the share of the vote to be won by the two major-party candidates only.) The final Post-ABC poll, released last evening, put Obama ahead of McCain by 53 to 44 percent.
Now here's the eerie part: Abramowitz's formula appears to really work. Only the 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore flummoxed Abramowitz, who predicted that Gore would win. Of course, Gore did win the most votes in 2000, but he got less of the major-party popular vote than Abramowitz predicted. Still his prediction (calculated months before the election) was more accurate than nearly all the final national polls published on the eve of the voting.
"The effects of campaigns are usually at the margins," Abramowitz says. "In a really close election they can make a difference if one campaign is much better than the other." The Bush campaign was a lot better than the Gore campaign in 2000, and that may have mattered. Typically, Abramowitz observes, the two campaigns "cancel each other out."
Abramowitz's formula for predicting elections combines three factors: how long the incumbent party has been in power, how highly the incumbent president is rated by the public, and how well the U.S. economy did in the second quarter of the election year. Its one novel element is Abramowitz's conviction that the natural pendulum of politics produces a "time for a change" factor that becomes influential as soon as a party has had two terms in the White House.
This is heresy to believers in traditional presidential politicking, as perpetuated by political consultants and the media, including this news organization. In that model, the campaign is waged to win the votes of a body of swing voters who can be persuaded to vote, say, for a Republican one year and a Democrat four years later, since most Americans stick religiously to their party's candidates. The media presume these swing voters are susceptible to the usual campaign tactics and will make rational choices.
Not all political scientists believe in formulas such as Abramowitz's, but they share a strong consensus that politicians and the journalists who cover them over-interpret campaigns and undervalue "the long-term fundamentals," in the words of Princeton University's Larry Bartels. The most important of these is the state of the economy.
Another significant one is "party identification," which has shifted dramatically in the Democrats' favor. In 2003, according to a Pew poll, 42 percent of voters identified themselves as Republicans or said they leaned that way, and 44 percent said they were Democrats or Democratic leaners. By last year those numbers were 36 for the Republicans and 50 for the Democrats.
A related fundamental is the popularity and longevity of the incumbent president. At the end of his second term, President Bush has lower approval ratings than any modern president but Richard M. Nixon.
The political scientists look for patterns over time, and journalists hunt and hope for news. The two groups have, says Bartels, a "fundamental conflict of interest." The professors' incentive "is to assume and convince people that in some relevant way, this year will be the same as past years have been. So we want to downplay the idiosyncratic elements of this year. Journalists' big professional incentive is to make people think that what happens today is really consequential, and 'Hey, you have to get up in the morning and read The Washington Post to see what is important.' "
These political scientists base their analyses on one bedrock belief: "The election is a referendum on the incumbent president," as Abramowitz puts it, and "it doesn't really matter who the candidate is." When times are bad, the party of the sitting president gets the blame, and when times are good, that party gets the benefit.
In 2008, times have been really bad. Never in the history of polling have so many Americans felt that the country is "off on the wrong track" -- 90 percent, according to the latest Post poll. That's the highest it has been this year, but the number was high in January, too -- 77 percent then. Similarly, voters have perceived a bad economy all year long. Months before the financial crisis and stock market crash, voters ranked the economy as the most important issue.
The idea that a professor using a formula can accurately foresee an election result seems designed to drive political junkies crazy. How could predicting an election be so simple? But it works. Months ago Abramowitz said Obama would win nearly 55 percent of the votes cast for the two major candidates. (To check the accuracy of the prediction tomorrow, add up the total of votes cast for Obama and McCain, and divide that total into the number cast for Obama. It may take a few days to get really complete numbers.)
Okay, it's time to take a deep breath. Obviously, this is Election Day; we won't know what happens until later tonight at the earliest. Tomorrow this story could qualify for inclusion in an anthology of embarrassing media goofs. As Yogi Berra famously warned, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
And even if the election turns out precisely as Abramowitz and the Post poll suggest (they are just one percentage point apart, well within the margin of error for such calculations), that will only demonstrate the predictability of campaigns, not their irrelevance. This is a curiosity worth pondering: Even if campaigns don't have a lot of influence on the outcomes of elections, they have a big impact on the country, and on politics generally.
"Saying that campaigns don't matter," says Samuel Popkin of the University of California at San Diego, "is like saying, 'Do we have to have the wedding?' But that's how the families get to know each other." In other words, there's more to a campaign that its outcome.
Campaigns change the country and its politics. They introduce new players (Obama and Sarah Palin, for example). They draw the country's attention, for a few months, to questions of politics and leadership that are largely ignored between presidential campaigns. "Campaigns create our collective memories," says Popkin. "They give people a stake in the election and give some candidates time to build up public understanding of what they are like as people."
Most significant, perhaps, campaigns establish politicians' legitimacy and strength. Ronald Reagan was a much more powerful president, says Popkin, because he won the presidency by an unexpected landslide. The other participants in the system had to adjust to his obvious political strength.
UCLA's Lynn Vavreck, in her forthcoming book "The Message Matters," elaborates on Abramowitz's observation that campaigns have an impact "at the margins." She cites three cases in which a candidate should and could have won if he had conducted a better campaign: Nixon in 1960, Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968 and Al Gore in 2000. All three were the beneficiaries of strong economies, and all three failed to exploit that fact effectively in their campaigns and lost the prize of a third term for their parties.
But she found no examples of a party winning a third term in bad economic times. That of course was John McCain's challenge this year. "It could just be impossible" to win in such circumstances, she said. McCain might have been more successful if he had seized on issues other than the economy, she said, but "he did have the deck stacked against him."
Which is just what Alan Abramowitz's formula said in August.
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Washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2008 Tuesday 7:00 PM EST
Potomac Confidential: Election Special
BYLINE: Marc Fisher, Washington Post Metro Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 8853 words
HIGHLIGHT: Welcome to Election Night on Potomac Confidential, where Metro columnist Marc Fisher was online to check in on the results of national and local races, including the Virginia senators race, the Maryland slots measure, the D.C. city council and school board and more.
Welcome to Election Night on Potomac Confidential, where Metro columnist Marc Fisher was online to check in on the results of national and local races, including the Virginia senators race, the Maryland slots measure, the D.C. city council and school board and more.
He'll fielded questions, comments or complaint you may have about your voting experience.
A transcript follows.
Special Note: Because of the anticipated length of the discussion, responses will be posted in reverse order, with the most recent answers at the top.
____________________
Marc Fisher: That wraps up tonight's show--lots more coming up here on the site tonight and into the morning. We'll come together at our regular time, noon on Thursday, to sift through all the races and look ahead in Virginia, Maryland and the District. Thanks for checking in on this historic night.
_______________________
Marc Fisher: TV networks: Obama elected president.
_______________________
Falls Church, Va.: Marc,
In Virginia, when are both the true absentee ballots (mailed in) and the advance voting ballots tallied? Are they part of the tallies we're seeing now? With such a close race in Virginia and with what I believe to have been much heavier than usual absentee/advance voting, this seems quite relevant!
Marc Fisher: The paper absentee ballots won't be counted for a while. Those in-person absentee ballots can be processed immediately.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va: Beside the White House, what other notable residential real estates would be affected by the election results tonight?
Mark Warner is staying put where he is, and so is Gerry Connoly.
If Obama wins, would that turn the metro area even bluer with his policy wonks and aids moving/settling into the region?
Marc Fisher: The real estate turnover involved in a change of administrations, even one that switches the party in power, is always overblown. Most of the players who will assume top administration positions already live here and will simply change offices. But there is always an influx of lower and mid-level folks who were campaign workers and local officials and now take their place in the political positions in the various agencies. So you'll see more movement in the moderate levels of the real estate market than at the higher levels--most of the top White House staff and agency heads will come from Washington government jobs or from their parking spots at the various think tanks, non-profits, universities and the like.
_______________________
Georgtowner: How do I find out results about the council races?
How'd Patrick Mara do vs. the "independent" Brown?
Did Christina Culver land some hits on Jack Evans?
Marc Fisher: Republican Culver will be lucky to hit 20 percent of the vote in her longshot challenge to Democrat incumbent Jack Evans in that Ward 2 race. Evans is running away with it, as expected.
_______________________
VIRGINIA: FOXNEWS CALLS IT FOR OBAMA
Marc Fisher: Rush to judgment? Perhaps not, given that Obama has only 50.5 percent of the vote, but much of the outstanding vote is from Fairfax County, so you complete the equation.
_______________________
Marc Fisher: We finally have our first returns from the District tonight. Obama is winning 92 percent of the vote in the city--some supporters had brashly predicted he might hit 95 percent.
Sadly, shadow senator Paul Strauss is trouncing Republican Nelson Rimensnyder despite Strauss's arrest for drunk driving last month.
And in the one real contest for D.C. Council, At large member Kwame Brown is running away with the race as expected, and the second seat is a closer contest: With just 15 percent of the vote counted, Michael Brown is in the lead with 19 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Patrick Mara with 13 percent and incumbent Carol Schwartz, waging a write-in campaign, trails with 11 percent. Still a long way to go on that one.
_______________________
Marc Fisher: Some Montgomery County numbers coming in now: Surprise--slots is winning in MoCo, 53 percent to 47 percent.
Also, longtime school board member Stephen Abrams is in danger of losing his seat; he's down 51-49 at this point to challenger Laura Berthiaume.
_______________________
Marc Fisher: Maryland: Associated Press calls victory for the legalization of slots. The Yes vote is leading by 60-40 percent with 40 percent of the vote counted.
Also in Maryland, in that First District House race, Democrat Frank Kratovil is clinging to a very tight lead over Republican Andy Harris, 49 percent to 48.6 percent, with about a third of the vote reporting.
_______________________
"We'll be back": Republicans don't have to worry too much. Eighteen months from January, Obama's cool demeanor will look like boredom and detachment as he raises everyone's taxes at the same time that inflation goes into hyper drive, while the "bailed-out" market will still below 10,000 and no less corrupt. I predict that halfway through his term, he will have ratings in the low 30s or high 20s, and the solidly Democratic Congress will be even lower. The Republicans will have four years to regroup and fund-raise and will look America's savior in 2012.
These things go in cycles, you know.
Marc Fisher: Isn't that getting just a tad ahead of the game?
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Fairfax, Va.: Ok...I'm willing to accept the "not enough resources" answer about coverage of third party candidates during the campaigning process, but what about the results? Sure, 99 percent of the vote is going to the major party candidates, but is it too much to ask, with only four names on the ballot, that you show the voting results for all candidates in a local race? C'mon...throw us freaks a bone!
Marc Fisher: Fair enough.
I just did a quick scan through the results in those states that are reporting any significant numbers and I don't see Bob Barr reaching 1 percent in any state. Ralph Nader makes it to 1 percent in a couple of places. In Maryland, Nader is at 0.6 percent and Barr, the Libertarian, is at 0.4 percent. In Virginia, both of those candidates are at 0.3 percent.
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Alexandria, Va.: Marc -- the one thing I hope we see moving forward is serious people doing serious work. Too many ninnies at my work talking about socialism and other white noise. It will be nice to see the grownups back in charge.
Marc Fisher: Obviously, the polarization fomented by TV news and partisan web sites has an impact on how some people talk about politics, and so you hear the same inflammatory phrases coming from both ends of the spectrum. Will that dissipate as a new administration settles in? To some extent, and depending on events and how the new folks handle themselves, but ratcheted-up rhetoric is part of our new politico-media reality and the parties will have to get used to it and perhaps find ways to push political language back toward the center as they seek ways to build new majority coalitions.
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Muncie, Ind.: I heard on the news that in Indianapolis a poll worker had to be replaced for challenging Democratic voters just on the basis that they're Democrats.
If this election is a rout, will the Democrats still pursue cases of voter suppression? A lot of us are still angry about Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004.
Marc Fisher: There are always going to be rogue pollworkers and dirty tricks and so on--isolated instances are easy to deal with. What you want to be on the lookout for is anything on a larger scale, and there have been no credible reports of anything like that today.
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washingtonpost.com: A Real McCain Supporter? Or Just a Clintonite on the Rebound? (Post, Sept. 21)
Marc Fisher: Here's my piece from earlier in the fall on Lynette Long, a Hillary Clinton supporter who switched over to McCain-Palin.
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Marc Fisher: With most of the votes now counted, it looks like those downstate Virginia House upsets by two Democrats, Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello, may hold. But there's a bit of a surprise in northern Virginia too, where Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is only about three percentage points ahead of Republican Keith Fimian in the race to succeed Tom Davis. Connolly is still likely to win, but what had once looked like an easy victory is looking instead like a reasonably close race.
The one big runaway is that of Frank Wolf, the Republican congressman from Fairfax, Loudoun and points west. He's leading Democratic challenger Judy Feder by a powerful 62-36 margin with about 60 percent of the vote counted. Why Democrats didn't look for a stronger challenger to Wolf is a question the party bosses will likely be asking themselves tomorrow.
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Palin : Shortly after the Republican convention you ran an interesting story about many women who were going to switch their allegiance to the Republicans in this election because of Palin. I am wondering what ended up happening with these women as they got to know Palin better. Did they stick with their original thoughts or change their minds?
washingtonpost.com: In Poll, McCain Closes the Gap With Obama (Post, Sept. 9)
Marc Fisher: Those women, several of whom I profiled soon after the Palin choice, fell into a couple of different categories. Some were genuinely attracted by Palin's life story and her seemingly fresh and atypically political rhetoric and personality. Others were Hillary Clinton supporters who somehow blamed Obama for dashing their dreams and were so embittered that they wanted to switch teams to send Obama and other Democrats a message. Many of those in the first camp stuck with McCain-Palin; many of those in the second camp got over their disappointment and rejoined the Dems.
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Nostalgia: I always went to the polls with my parents or grandparents. We went behind a current and pulled a lever on a big voting booth. I loved this and as an adult have never gotten an opportunity to do so. It has been all bubble sheets and computers. I was lamenting this on the phone with my sister. Come to find out she gets to go into the booth in Manhattan. And my parents are in the booth in Philly. I am totally jealous. I want to pull a lever!!
Marc Fisher: I love the lever! There aren't many states left where that admittedly ancient technology is still in use, but it's enormously satisfying because it's a physical, mechanical act and because it makes a great sound. I think the sound is the key.
Since we're talking about slots tonight, we should make that analogy: Although modern electronic slot machines don't need to make any noises, they've maintained not only the old sounds of the mechanical machines but also the one-armed bandit lever, even though it doesn't actually move any gears anymore. It's all about the physicality of the game--same with voting.
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Falls Church, Va.: While I understand that technically there is no early voting in Virginia, the people administering the early in-person absentee voting in Virginia really did not care what your excuse was.
Marc Fisher: To the extent that is true--and it is--you could look at this year as something of an experiment with early voting. But still, this year's experience here doesn't begin to approach what happens out West, where half the population or more votes early and the Election Day experience is greatly diminished.
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Marc Fisher: Maryland's votes are finally starting to come in in some significant numbers and the House race in the 1st District has shifted and Democrat Frank Kratovil has taken a tiny lead over Republican Andy Harris.
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Marc Fisher: With 80 percent of the vote counted, Obama just took his first lead in Virginia.
With the same new batch of votes, the two Democratic House challengers downstate took leads over Reps. Virgil Goode, an independent who caucuses with the Republicans, and Thelma Drake, a Republican.
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The Book: Voting in previous elections in NE DC I cannot tell you how much I learned to hate the book. The poll workers were elderly, the voters were elderly and the book was overwhelming to everyone. People just could not get their signatures on the correct lines, find the names efficiently, etc.
Marc Fisher: I like the book because you can see who your neighbors are and whether they've voted yet that day. It's a rare vestige of the time when voting was a much more public and communal act.
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Anonymous: From the freerepublic.com:
Post-Mortem Time? Tuesday, November 04, 2008 9:41:30 PM - by henkster - 1 replies - 128+ views Assuming the numbers hold, McCain lost. We have our first socialist regime.
Marc, what do you say to people like that?
Marc Fisher: What can you say? After Reagan won, there were similarly immature folks on the other side who announced to their friends that the country was becoming fascistic. In both cases, it's probably best to just ignore such ravings.
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No Whining?: Well, someone on the chat tonight complained about having to wait in line 10 WHOLE MINUTES, in the "mobbed" line for A-D voters while voters in the E-I line "sailed" by . . . .
But I agree generally that most people I saw around the polls seemed to be exhibiting a lot more patience and good cheer.
I second the poster who said we all owe a debt of thanks to those who volunteer to work the polls, including for elections that are much less glamorous (and unfortunately less well attended) than the one taking place today. It is work that it is both critical and underappreciated (as well as neighborly). Bravo!
Marc Fisher: There will always be whiners, but today's voting went remarkably smoothly, especially given the size of the turnout.
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Durham, N.C.: I was truly disappointed to find no line whatsoever when I went to vote this afternoon. I was looking forward to being in a line, being able to share the excitement of the day -- and, not to stereotype, but since my precinct is heavily African-American, it would have been very exciting, I'm sure. As it was, it was the six officials with the alphabet books, the two handing out the paper ballots, the guy giving out "I Voted" stickers, and me (although 780 people had already voted ahead of me -- our machines register that when you slide in your paper ballot). We had early voting here in NC and they're saying nearly half of all voters did in fact vote early. It made today a lonely experience.
Marc Fisher: That's the downside of early voting...
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Washington, D.C.:"This was a powerful argument for maintaining Election Day as a one-day, communal event."
I agree, sort of. Seems to have been a relatively error free day voting wise, and couldn't one reason for that be the EARLY VOTING? I like the notion of communal voting. But to make sure everyone has a chance to vote, and when we get more and more people registered, it seems that we Americans cannot pull off a one day election. There are just too many mistakes and too much disenfranchisement.
(Also, we don't know the extent of any voting errors yet. And we may never know.)
Marc Fisher: If we had early voting in this region and the Election Day process then went easily, you'd certainly have an argument for using early voting as an escape valve in instances of huge turnout. But we don't yet have early voting in Virginia, Maryland or the District. Rather, all we have is the usual absentee voting procedure, so you can't credit early voting for making today relatively smooth going.
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Marc Fisher: No D.C. returns as yet.
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Marc Fisher: Maryland update:
You can probably expect to be able to gamble on slots in Maryland sometime in the next couple of years. With about 15 percent of the vote counted, Marylanders are voicing their approval of slots gambling by a 59 percent to 41 percent margin. They're approving early voting by a much wider margin.
In Maryland's one tight congressional race, in District 1 on the Eastern Shore and Anne Arundel County, in the early going, Republican Andy Harris has a very slim lead over Democrat Frank Kratovil, 51-46.
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Anonymous: biggest surprise/unexpected outcome so far for you?
Marc Fisher: Probably seeing how close the races are in a couple of the Virginia House contests that just a few weeks ago would have seemed easy reelection bids for Republican incumbents.
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Four Corners, Md.: How should Republicans look at the future mid-term and, a little farther down the road, Presidential election.
It's hard not to feel like the world has collapsed around us. But so many of my like-minded friends tell me that we're just due for a repeat of 1992-94 and, like Arnold, "we'll be back."
I'm not feeling it but would be curious for an unbiased opinion.
Marc Fisher:"We'll be back" is the mature and reasonable response of any party that's ousted from power--the period after a defeat is time to figure out how to rejigger the message and agenda of that party. If that's the battle cry we hear in the coming weeks, that would be a far sight better than "the election was stolen" or any of the other cynical and crass stuff that's dominating talk radio this evening.
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Anonymous: Most counts have Obama up about 195-90 in electoral vote, but have the popular vote almost tied. How does that happen? Much higher percentage of turnout in the red states, despite their smaller overall populations?
Marc Fisher: The electoral vote and the actual popular vote count progress along very different tracks. The electoral votes you're seeing here on the site and on TV are the tally of projections that are made state by state based on exit polls and, in many cases, on scattered actual returns in those states. The popular vote is an aggregated actual count of those votes that have been counted in all states where polls have closed. So while a big state like New York with its mother lode of electoral votes is included in that electoral tally, there may only be a few thousand New York votes included in that popular vote tally you're seeing. You shouldn't compare the two at this early stage of the count.
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Washington, D.C.: re: lots of red in Virginia
One thing to remember is that those large swatches of red don't have the population density of the areas generally considered to be Obama's strongholds.
Marc Fisher: Right--in fact, a fairly dramatic story may be developing in Virginia, where what had originally been expected to be one Democratic House pickup could turn into two or three.
Gerry Connolly looks like he'll pick up Tom Davis's seat in Fairfax County, but Rep. Thelma Drake is locked in a 50-50 contest with Democratic challenger Glenn Nye in the Hampton Roads area, and now in the 5th District, independent Rep. Virgil Goode is running only a couple of percentage points ahead of Democratic challenger Tom Perriello.
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washingtonpost.com: Maryland State Board of Elections
Marc Fisher: That's the state's site for raw vote count.
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Maryland Ballot Questions: Hi Marc,
Do you have a good Web site where I can go to see (eventually) the results of these ballot measures? Thanks.... (oh and I waited 3 1/2 hours to vote today in Silver Spring, Md. ... I picked the worst time to vote obviously, right when the polls opened at 7 a.m., but it was well worth the wait to vote for Obama.)
Marc Fisher: Here's the site to check but the numbers are coming in very slowly in Maryland. Probably you'll see a big surge there in about an hour.
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Arlington, Va.: On Virginia timing: MSNBC just said that 0 percent are reporting from Arlington. Still have a ways to go on that one.
Marc Fisher: Yes, there are now huge gaps in the reporting of Virginia votes.
There are parts of the state where 60 percent of the vote has been counted, yet only 16 percent is in in Fairfax and the congressional race to succeed Tom Davis there is still not called because of that slow count. But Gerry Connolly is leading Republican Keith Fimian by a fair margin there.
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"Rather, I saw one emotional scene after another...": Absolutely! I spent 2 hours waiting to vote today and was able to spend that time talking to people in my neighborhood in Silver Spring that I otherwise never would have had the chance to. It was a great day.
Marc Fisher: As the election moves closer and closer to an Obama victory, I am reminded again and again of the passion that many voters, black and white, demonstrated at the polls today, their desire to be part of a history-making day, and their palpable satisfaction in doing that together with their neighbors. This was a powerful argument for maintaining Election Day as a one-day, communal event.
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No More Book: Voting in Maryland today registration was by computer. I gave them my name and a receipt was printed that was signed by myself and the election judge. Very, very efficient.
Marc Fisher: You won't be surprised to learn that I like the book. I'm sure the advocates of electronic voting are correct that their systems are theoretically superior in accuracy and speed, but I hear voters talking quite frequently about their greater trust in paper, whether it's the registration books or the ballots or the receipts. This may be a generational shift, but at least for the foreseeable future, trust lies in paper, and voting is all about trust.
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Four Corners, Md.: Fox projects Ohio for Obama.
It's all done now.
Marc Fisher: Ohio is your ultimate bellwether state. NBC has also projected Obama in Ohio.
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Washington, D.C.: The general rule for these things is that votes from urban areas in swing states get counted last, so states tend to trend Democratic as the night goes on, right?
Marc Fisher: That's usually the case. In most places, small, rural communities report their votes faster, in part because they have fewer votes to report and in part because they just seem to be better at the job. In most Rust Belt states, it's a pretty longstanding part of the political tradition that the inner city areas report last, sometimes because of traffic congestion and sometimes because the pollworkers go out for a quick one before driving the boxes downtown.
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Denver: Hi,
In Denver County you can stop by and vote at any precinct -- they have all the different ballots at each one. Is this not the case in other places where you have to go to just one place? I forget how many years ago Denver implemented that decision but it sure is convenient so you can vote by work or your home or where you think the line will be smaller.
Marc Fisher: No, in most states you must vote at your local neighborhood polling place--it's mainly in states with early voting or mail-in voting that there is a new, more flexible attitude about where people vote. I far prefer the old system because it adds a whole additional level of security--the neighbors who recognize and know many of those who come to vote. That's a kind of security that makes a much greater difference than does checking an ID card.
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Bowie, Md.: Marc, why can't we use this scrolling format (most recent at the top) all the time, like during Thursday lunch?
Marc Fisher: Interesting idea--I'll ask the powers that be to compare the two and think about their relative merits.
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Bristow, Va.: When I drove by my polling place this morning just before the polls opened, the line stretched all the way to the end of the bus loop at the school. I left work a little early and was prepared to face long lines when I voted after work, even bringing a paperback ("Democracy in America") with me. I was kind of disappointed to encounter no lines at all at 5:30 PM. It wasn't a matter of excess staffing or polling stations -- there just wasn't anyone there at that time. I'm sure glad I skipped the opportunity to vote absentee early (my commute qualified me).
On the plus side, our school board chairman was handing out sample ballots outside, and I was able to have a good conversation with him about some issues that are important to me. So, I still got my taste of representative democracy, just not in the way I'd anticipated.
Marc Fisher: I have to say that despite all the whining and handwringing that took place prior to today about early voting and long queues at the polls and the lousy election technologies that various localities use, I heard no such complaints out there today. Rather, I saw one emotional scene after another as people struck up conversations with others in line, told their stories about why this election means more to them than previous ones, and generally relished this day.
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Anonymous: What will The Post, Times, CNN, MSNBC, FOXNews, Huffington Post, Drudge, Jon Stewart, etc. have to talk about after the election? Will we go back to celebrity trials an runaway brides?
Marc Fisher: Serious news organizations such as The Post will redouble our focus on the federal government, from the transition to the new president's program and efforts to work with a Democratic-dominated Congress. The cable TV channels will likely return to celebrity fare and the sensational menu of political and other news that dominated their airwaves prior to the campaign.
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Tyson's Corner, Va.: At what point can they call the Virginia race? I see a lot of counties in red (for McCain) and very few in blue, although Fairfax county is only reporting 9 percent...but can Obama take Virginia with so many counties reporting McCain?
Marc Fisher: If, as expected, Obama wins Fairfax with more than 60 percent of the vote, that could alter the statewide picture rather dramatically. Northern Virginia accounts for about 30 percent of Virginia's votes. So the fact that McCain is now up in Virginia with about 51 percent of the vote doesn't necessarily say much about the eventual outcome. Stay tuned.
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Fairfax, Va.: The early results have Obama up in Ohio and Pennsylvania by a lot, and close in Florida and Indiana, but way behind in Virginia -- and that's despite all the support that went to Warner. What's the deal?
Marc Fisher: At this early stage in the raw count, the numbers can be highly skewed according to which parts of the state are reporting their counts. In Virginia, for example, some of the southside and central Virginia districts have reported more than half of their votes, while much of Fairfax County has reported less than 10 percent of its vote.
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Chantilly, Va.: Just a comment about breaking up the poll book by last name: at my polling place, where I worked as a new election official, the books were distributed and divided equally by last name. Interestingly, at some points during the day, one line had many more than the others, while at other times the other lines had more. So: while the book was divided equally, the citizens were arriving at different rates and it was not equally distributed across the alphabet.
Marc Fisher: Sounds like a job for some enterprising algorithm writers.
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DC Voter Rolls/Alphabet: My experience was the opposite of your earlier posters. At my precinct this, I was marveling that there was just one line devoted just to names beginning with the letters R and S -- I didn't fall into that category, but it clearly reflected some kind of forethought about alphabetic distribution of names. It don't know if the breakdown is the same city wide, or if it differs from precinct to precinct.
Marc Fisher: I bet it varies quite a bit precinct by precinct, depending on the demographic makeup of that area.
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Fairfax, Va.: They just called the Senate race in NC--Libby Dole lost! What does that say about the state of the Republican party?
Marc Fisher: It implies that Obama has drawn huge support from blacks in North Carolina and that Dole alienated her base, and it also may say that North Carolina is changing in some ways quite similar to Virginia, both in the increasing minority population and in the more educated and affluent population in some of the urban and suburban parts of the state.
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Marc Fisher: TV networks calling NC Senate for Kay Hagan over Elizabeth Dole.
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Alexandria, Va.: Marc - lots of complaining about how elections are administered around here. What, exactly do people expect of what is essentially a volunteer organization? If we were serious about this, we would have trained state election officials running the polls. We would have more polling places, and there would be real funding. To say nothing of having a national standard for voting methods.
Hats off to the people who do go out there at 5 AM to make this happen. They are patriots, and should be applauded as such.
Marc Fisher: Well said--and exactly right. Voting is a matter of trust, and it's a community effort. The people running your local polling place are your neighbors, doing this work out of the goodness of their hearts.
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Falls Church, Va.: The poster referring to himself as Dunn Loring, Va., only sees what he wants to see. Just FYI in response to questions DL raised across a -couple of discussions last week, my next-door neighbor has a flag and an Obama poster (and is a vet) and the truck parked on the other side has a Semper Fi sticker next several Obama stickers.
Marc Fisher: That tracks my reporting in a number of Virginia neighborhoods with heavy military family populations--while McCain had strong support there, Obama was winning over lots of hearts and minds as well.
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Washington, D.C.: re: alphabet and voting lines. I had the same discussion last year with a bunch of friends. Most of us complained about the stupidity of not dividing the names equally, but one person came up with a much better theory -- it's the efficiency of the poll worker at each line that makes the difference.
Marc Fisher: Yes, that's very true--some poll workers are quick and others glacial. It's really not fair to complain about it since they are either volunteers or barely paid at all, so the right thing to do is to just thank them for their service and swallow it. But it's not too much to ask the professionals to design a system that divides people into queues more equitably. And I did think that having the guy with severe shakes be in charge of separating the paper ballots from their pad and handing them to voters was a bit, well, cruel.
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Alexandria, Va.: Umm, how is Indiana too close to call good for McCain (the underdog)? After all this is a state Bush carried by a huge margin. Isn't it more that having your opponent's base states be too close to call is good for your candidate?
Marc Fisher: Too close to call is good for the underdog, whomever he may be. In the case of Indiana, that would be Obama.
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Laurel, Md.: The Slots question language stipulates that it will only include certain counties, including Anne Arundel. Is it decided what the venue will be (e.g. Laurel Racetrack)?
Marc Fisher: The wording of the law doesn't specify the actual location, but the locations have indeed been chosen, if unofficially, and that's why those county locations are named in the ballot measure. Yes, the Anne Arundel location is the Laurel track. What remains to be seen, though, is whether the gambling industry will go ahead and put those slots casinos into tracks that are otherwise failing. The companies that own horse tracks are in deep financial trouble in many cases and, as the suspension of racing at Rosecroft demonstrates most dramatically, it's not clear that those companies can keep going on.
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Chapel Hill, N.C.: Hi, Marc, thanks for doing this tonight! What's up with the map on the Web site's front page? It shows South Carolina in red, with 1 percent of the vote counted and an Obama lead? And Maine and Connecticut are shown in blue already, but with no results available at all. Seems kinda sloppy to me .. .
Marc Fisher: Those are projections based on exit polling. When exit polls show substantial and clear leads, news organizations base their projections on that information and declare the race. But when polling is close, it's prudent to wait for the official count to see if the actual vote is tracking the exit polling.
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Anonymous: If turnout is as high as expected, o you think people will say "the system works" and ideas like weekend voting or making Election Day a day off of work will loose whatever momentum they had?
Marc Fisher: The winners will say the system worked and the loser will, sadly, either grumble about irregularities or, as I've been hearing on talk radio tonight, yammer on about "stolen" elections. It's awful to say, but it appears the age of the graceful concession is slipping away from us.
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Four Corners, Md.: Does it favor either candidate the longer states remain "too close to call"?
Marc Fisher: The underdog is always the one who wants the count to go long and late--that's his only hope, of course. An early night goes to the favorite.
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Silver Spring MD: Marc -- What's your feeling on the congressional race in Maryland's 1st district, the Harris-Kratovil race? Harris's campaign manager says that "the only (vote) that matters to the Constitution is +1 ... but I think we'll win by more than one vote." (He told that to PolitickerMD.com.) Is the Harris campaign overly sure of themselves in this race? Or does Obama actually have coattails on the Eastern Shore?
It seems that Republican Roscoe Barlett will win re-election. How many cycles do you think it'll take for the Democrats to win in Western Maryland? (Or will they tonight?)
washingtonpost.com: Meekins: 'I think we'll win by more than one vote' (politickermd.com)
Marc Fisher: It's hard to imagine Barlett losing tonight, but the Eastern Shore race should be close. No results in yet, but this is one that could go fairly late.
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Slots: I have never been so torn about an election question in my life. I just hate the idea of earning money for the state through gambling. It seems morally wrong. However, I am very active in my kids' pubic school and the recent budget cuts are having a real impact on the schools. More money would be quite helpful. In the end, after much reading, researching and thinking I voted NO but I really cannot see being disappointed if the vote goes the other way. Not sure what that says about me. A little bit I feel like I am having other people do the dirty work and my kids will reap the reward.
Marc Fisher: Sounds like you made the right choice, but I doubt your side will prevail tonight. No numbers yet out of Maryland but both sides on the slots issue tend to agree that the measure will win.
The sad truth is that slots won't necessarily add a single dollar to state education spending. More likely, even if the ambitious goal of $600 million is met, that money would simply free up other dollars for other state priorities. And remember that large portions of each gambling dollar will go to the slots casino operators, and to prop up the state's horse industry.
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washingtonpost.com: District of Columbia Board of Elections & Ethics
Marc Fisher: Here's where to check for the latest D.C. numbers.
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Washington, DC: Where on this site (or another) can I see updates of the ANC races in DC? Curious about my very local reps. Thanks.
Marc Fisher: The District government won't count the votes for ANC races until Thursday, so if that's what you're waiting for, you can head off to bed!
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D.C. Council -- At Large Race: Any sense of when we will have the results for Council races? Tonight or tomorrow?
Marc Fisher: We should see numbers from the District in the next hour or two, but the council race is a special case--because Carol Schwartz is running a write-in campaign, if the number of write-ins is high enough to make a difference in the outcome, those ballots will be counted later--most likely tomorrow, so there wouldn't be a real result until at least then.
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Arlington, Va.: Marc, Real Clear Politics has McCain up 57-43 percent in Virginia. Any thoughts, other than "it's early"?
Marc Fisher: That's a wider margin than the exit polling shows, but, as you predicted, I'll stick with "it's early."
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Washington, D.C.: What do you think an Obama presidency would do for the prospects of D.C. statehood?
Marc Fisher: Nothing. Just as we heard before Bill Clinton took over the White House, there's lots of noise about how a President Obama would finally put some oomph into efforts to win voting rights for the District. Don't believe a word of it. No president is going to lift a finger for the District, and the let-them-move-elsewhere attitude that is so prevalent in Congress is very much a bipartisan sneering. Remember, the one big, realistic push for a House seat for the District was spearheaded by a Republican, Tom Davis of Fairfax County.
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Washington, D.C.: Hi Marc, I just posted a similar comment on Robert's (also superb) chat, but realized maybe it was better suited over here.
Today was my first time voting as a D.C. resident (though I grew up in the burbs here), and what really struck me was less the historic presidential vote, and more the number of races on the ballot that were essentially uncontested races for impotent offices. I had given his very little thought before (embarrassingly), but it is frankly galling, in my view, that full-fledged, taxpaying United States citizens are simply 100 percent shut out of the legislative branch of our government, that every other citizen is entitled to participate in.
Does the Post have a position on D.C. statehood? How is this not a truly fundamental civil rights issue?
Marc Fisher: The state of democracy in the District is grim indeed--uncontested council races in too many wards, a meaningless school board, also infected with uncontested races, and a continuing legacy of congressional interference in everything from the administration of taxi fares to tax and spending policy.
I don't think statehood is necessarily a civil liberties issue, but surely voting rights is, and the District's residents will not have a chance to forge their own way until and unless they have a right to vote in Congress.
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Re: Mark and John: Did John Warner ever state who he was voting for in the Senate race?
Marc Fisher: No, John Warner never endorsed Jim Gilmore as his successor. Sen. Warner didn't come out for Democrat Mark Warner either, but his silence spoke volumes. John Warner did contribute to Gilmore's campaign last spring, but after Gilmore came out against the bailout package this fall, John Warner very conspicuously failed to endorse his party's nominee.
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Anonymous: Outside of the presidential race, which other national races interest you the most? Minnesota senate? Prop. 8 in California?
Marc Fisher: I'm a big ballot questions and initiatives fan, so I'm watching not only the slots and early voting questions in Maryland, but also the abortion measures in California, South Dakota and Colorado; the anti-affirmative action measures in Colorado and Nebraska; and the same-sex marriage votes in several states.
There are also some interesting votes on cutting state budgets and limiting taxes in several states.
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Washington: Marc, you penned a column skeptical of early voting. Given the 2-3 block-long lines at some places in town today, are you having any second thoughts on the issue? Of course it's worth the wait and makes a nice statement, but 2 hour waits have to be a problem for some people.
Marc Fisher: I was surprised and pleased to find that as I interviewed people who had been in line for two or even three hours, not a one complained that there was anything unacceptable about this. To the contrary, they consistently said it was worth the wait.
Obviously, elections should be run as efficiently as possible. And there are good and serious questions to be asked about whether voting machines and polling places are properly allocated. But I am even firmer in my views about early voting now--it's not only unnecessary, but--more important--it's destructive to the remarkable sense of common cause that even political enemies have on Election Day. That spirit of coming together to do democracy's work is a valuable part of our political culture and it would be a shame to see it disappear into yet another piece of atomized daily life.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Have the Post reporters broken out the champagne yet or are they waiting for official confirmation that Obama won?
Marc Fisher: Just as there's no cheering in the press box at sports events, there are no expressions of any political views in a newsroom. I don't know the political views of my colleagues and I don't want to. I do know that most reporters are vastly more interested in the story, no matter where it leads, than in any particular ideology, party or personality.
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Four Corners, Md.: Drove by the polling place this morning and saw a line out the door. I went to vote at 4 p.m. this afternoon and my husband at 7 p.m. Both of us had NO ONE in front of us -- literally walked right up and voted.
My husband turned down an opportunity to respond to an exit poll. He said he just didn't feel comfortable sharing his answers.
Marc Fisher: I've never seen an election as frontloaded in the day as this one--nearly everywhere, people came out in droves in the morning, to such an extent that by midday it was clear there would be no PM rush. I guess week upon week of scare reporting about the possibility of long queues and inadequate voting machines did the trick.
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Alexandria, Va.: If there appears to be pretty solid evidence that Virginia has muffed the voting process, and the presidential vote in the state ends up close, but Obama wins the rest of the country handily, what happens? I'm assuming there's no recount unless he feels the need to ask for one, right?
Marc Fisher: I don't see any evidence that Virginia has muffed the process. To the contrary, all reports indicate that Virginia voting is going even more smoothly than four or two years ago.
And yes, there's no automatic recount.
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Four Corners, Md.: Will we get Election Night results on the two constitutional questions in Maryland? Or is that something we'll have to wait for tomorrow?
Marc Fisher: That should be available tonight, and probably fairly early. Check in here in an hour or so and I'll try to get you the latest numbers.
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Virginia: If Obama wins Virginia, combined with the Warner blow out, Webb's win in '06 (which, okay, had some extenuating macacca-induced circumstances) and two consecutive Democratic governors...do you think it's entering a new long-term period of blueness, or that these were a just a cluster of flukey elections?
Marc Fisher: Somewhere in between. Without a doubt, the demographic evolution of Virginia is helping the Democrats, and the enormous increase in the state's minority population is not a good match for the Republicans' emphasis on the illegal immigration issue last year. But Virginia remains an essentially conservative state certainly in fiscal matters, and low taxes are a priority for both parties.
At this point, it looks like Virginia Republicans will have to enter a phase of figuring out a new direction, either a harder affirmation of conservative social values or a tacking to the center. That's the big debate coming up if Obama and Warner win Virginia and if the Republicans lose a couple of House seats as well.
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Anonymous: When do you expect we'll be able to call this sucker?
Marc Fisher: I'd be surprised if any responsible news organization will be willing to call it until we see how cleanly actual results are lining up with exit polling data--that is, whether any of the yammering we've heard for the past six months about the Bradley effect or about hidden racism or about a late McCain surge is really true. Once there are real numbers from a few of the battleground states and those numbers can be reliably compared to the exit polling, if the two are well aligned, you'll see some folks start to call the election. My wild guess is that that won't happen until the 10 pm range (Eastern time.)
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dividing up the electoral roll in DC: Say - could the Board of Electors divide up the roll to better suit how many people have names beginning with certain letters of the alphabet?
It happens every election time -- those of us who have names beginning with A-D watch as hordes of people who don't pass us by because there are less of them. Please, please, divide up A-B and C-D.
I was standing in the queue next to E-I and in the 10 minutes I was standing in A-D the volunteer at E-I only had 3 people. A lot of the time she just sat there as another volunteer was trying to find people for her. Meanwhile A-D is mobbed.
There are better ways to break up the alphabet.
Marc Fisher: I had exactly this conversation with my daughter as we stood in line this morning. We waited in the E-I queue, which was four times as long as any other chunk of the alphabet's line, and the poor clerk manning the S-Z queue sat there twiddling his thumbs as no one, but no one, showed up for a long stretch of time.
This, again, is a knowable fact: A look at the registration rolls would allow the elections officials to determine which parts of the alphabet have most of the names in that precinct, and they could adjust their division of the alphabet accordingly. But they don't.
Sounds like a project for some college stats class.
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Anonymous: Odd question, why is it we rarely see a resume for many folks that run for office? Is political experience comparable with real world employment? I guess the question I am trying to get to is how do we bridge the gap between policy and applied challenges?
Holding office and being involved is one thing but managing a government office, department or agency would offer a world of experience versus simply running for office.
Marc Fisher: Good question--actually, a politician's resume is but a click away. You'll find here on the big web site and on many other sites lots of detail about the voting records of those candidates who already hold office. For novice candidates, you'll find resume data in The Post's voter's guides, which are available online and in print.
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Alexandria, Va.: About a year ago I sat next to you at a sushi-making party and told you that Obama was going to get the nomination and win the election. You said he would never beat Hillary Clinton to get the nomination in the first place. Are you ready to eat some crow?
Marc Fisher: I'll certainly cop to not having foreseen Obama's nomination from a year out. But I think your memory is playing tricks on you--as a search of my writings will make clear, I had argued from the very start, well more than a year ago, that there was no way Americans were going to elect Hillary Clinton president.
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Washington, D.C.: Marc, thanks for this chat. I voted this morning just after 10. Lines were minimal and everything went smoothly. My only complaint has to do with my local ANC race. I live in Chevy Chase/Tenleytown, the site of a lot of much-discussed NIMBYism. I hate that stuff and wanted to do my part to vote against the NIMBYs, but I tried and tried and couldn't find any information about my current commissioner other than his name. When I got my ballot, two entirely new names were on it, that I knew nothing about. I ended up picking at random, but it made me mad that I had to do that.
Where can a citizen go for information on the ANC process and candidates? I work full-time and go to school part-time, so I can't attend the meetings, but I still want to have some say.
Marc Fisher: Those down-ballot candidates can sometimes be tough to learn about. In my neighborhood, both Advisory Neighborhood Commission candidates knocked on all the doors on my block and gave each voter a good chunk of time to talk about development and other hot issues. In addition, check out your community weekly newspapers--where you live, the Northwest Current did in-depth stories on the ANC races. Those districts are so tiny that a big metropolitan newspaper can't cover each one of those races, but community papers can. Surprisingly, no web startups have come along that take those elections seriously.
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washingtonpost.com: 10 Questions For Election Night
Marc Fisher: Here's my list of the 10 questions that tonight's returns may help answer as we look to the political future in Virginia, Maryland and the District.
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Laurel, Md.: After hearing stories at work about the long lines people had seen that morning, I was prepared to drive by my polling place and keep driving.
Instead, I was in and out in 10 minutes. (In 2004, I had waited in line 45.)
Marc Fisher: The story I'd love to see reported after this is all over is the dreadful imbalance of voting machines--in some places, lines wrapped around the block while just a few blocks away, there'd be no queue whatsoever. That's a fixable problem, since elections officials know well in advance what the number of registered voters is in each precinct.
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Arlington, Va.: What was the state of Virginia's rationale for not providing more voting machines? I stood in line for 90 minutes, because there were only four electronic voting machines at a community center. The elapsed time would have been longer if I didn't fill out a paper ballot.
Marc Fisher: The number of voting machines was sharply increased this year, but probably no one could have predicted this historic turnout far enough in advance to have bought enough machines to eliminate long waits. That said, the long queues were mainly bunched in the early morning hours. By mid-morning, and extending well into the afternoon, the queues were light to non-existent. Indeed, the elections chiefs at several polling places told me that they were stunned by light the traffic was later in the day--everyone was so freaked by the possibility that they'd be shut out if they waited too long that they all voted in the morning!
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Northern Virginia: Marc: I'm not a political person, but I wonder -- how do you take your party back? Before Election Day, Warner was up more than 30-points against Gilmore. Maybe they elected not to campaign or even advertise in Northern Virginia (or should I say, communist country) but I did not see one Gilmore ad. I just think it's absurd that the state party essentially chose Gilmore and did not support Tom Davis's desire to compete for the seat. Does ideology trump winning in some cases?
Marc Fisher: It wasn't so much ideology as raw political power that prevailed in the Republicans' choice of Gilmore over Tom Davis for the right to take on (and lose to) Mark Warner. Davis wanted his party to allow a primary, but Gilmore's allies managed to force a convention, which Davis could not win.
But you're absolutely right about the invisibility of the Gilmore campaign, especially in northern Virginia. Driving around today, I saw fields and fields of McCain, Obama and Warner signs but not a single mention of Gilmore, not in the median strips, not outside polling places, nowhere. It was a very strange choice by a party that does indeed seem to have lost its way in a state it had dominated for decades.
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Marc Fisher: Just in: The Washington Post has declared that Mark Warner will win his bid for the U.S. Senate seat from Virginia, handily defeating his fellow former governor, Jim Gilmore.
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Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, folks, for the first of several hours of discussion here about the presidential race and all local and statewide races in Virginia, Maryland and the District.
Huge turnouts are being reported across the region, and at the dozen or so polling places I visited today, I found a striking number of first-time voters who saw their participation today as more than a civic duty--many people referred to it using almost religious language, talking about this vote being a calling or an act of faith or hope.
But this is now an hour of actual numbers, as the polls have just closed in Virginia. Maryland and the District follow at 8 p.m.
Let's get right to your comments and questions, and please do send along your thoughts about today's voting experience....
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2008 Tuesday 7:00 PM EST
Analysis: Election Night 2008
BYLINE: Robert G. Kaiser, Washington Post Associate Editor, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 13342 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 7 p.m. ET to break down the general election returns as they're announced and examine what they mean for the parties, the executive branch, Congress and the nation.
Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 7 p.m. ET to break down the general election returns as they're announced and examine what they mean for the parties, the executive branch, Congress and the nation.
He was joined at points during the evening by Mark Blumenthal, editor of Pollster.com; Ryan Thornburg of the Project on Public Life at the University of North Carolina; Washington Post reporter Kevin Merida; and Robert Struckman, editor of New West.
Special Note: Because of the anticipated length of the discussion, responses will be posted in reverse order, with the most recent answers at the top.
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Chicago: I just returned home from the Grant Park celebration outside the fence. What a happy occasion, where the goodwill, relief and peacefulness was palpable. The crowds were somber and subdued and perhaps introspective, but incredibly happy. A few passing cars with horns blaring, but few whoops. On the walk over I joined a diverse group of young adults just coming off the L that hadn't heard Obama had been declared the winner. Their faces lit up as if a breeze came over embers, and for a moment there was pure, quiet joy. Walking home I noticed a black woman security guard at a college building leaning out the door to be a part of this moment, and the same reaction from a parking lot attendant across the street. The sense of peace and hopefulness was pervasive.
washingtonpost.com: Folks, we're done for the night but I wanted to post this nice from-the-scene report before we wrapped up. Join us tomorrow for a special discussion hosted by Post reporter Dana Priest that will bring in six guests to examine various aspects of how the Barack Obama administration will be built and may govern.
Posted 0:52 a.m., 11.5.2008
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San Antonio, Texas: Now that it's finished, will he rule from the left or the center?
Kevin Merida: Obama will probably try to capitalize on the working majorities he has in Congress, though there are such pressing national issues that spin from the economic calamity, that his domestic agenda will likely need some reworking.
Posted 0:44 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Arlington, Va.: Where is Joe Biden -- is he in Delaware?
Kevin Merida: Joe Biden joined Obama onstage in Chicago after Obama's victory speech.
Posted 0:41 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Bethesda, Md.: Wonder why McCain decided to be the man he always was tonight. Had he run the true-but-gracious warrior style, he might have won -- or at least had a closer race that would have made it hard to say that Obama had a mandate.
Kevin Merida: There will be a lot of postmortems about how mccain ran his campaign. was he too nice or too mean? did he stray from the independence he had carved out for himself in the republican firmament and decide to placate his right flank? or did he not run hard enough and persistently enough at obama's weaknesses? there will be a lot of questions, but those are for another day.
Posted 0:41 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Washington: How remarkable is it for a newbie senator, ranking just about at the bottom of the pack, to become the new president? It feels like one heck of a promotion. Is there much precedent for that? I'm wondering how it compares to JFK, for example.
Kevin Merida: JFK also was very young, and considered untested. but he had many of the qualities that seem to have attracted people to obama.
Posted 0:35 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: I am going to sign off and leave this to my colleagues. Thanks to all. We have shared a night to remember in American history.
Posted 0:32 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Los Angeles: Good evening from California. I'm 36, almost 37 years old, and I never have been as proud of America as I am right now. After the most recent two elections I didn't think we had it in us as a nation to do what we are doing tonight. Tonight we show the world again that America is full of suprises and that we can again be a moral, spiritual beacon for the rest of the world. Thank you.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this.
Posted 0:30 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Washington: Will Axelrod be in the new administration? What's the path for the chief strategist of the campaign when they win?
Robert G. Kaiser: He has said repeatedly that he will stay in Chicago. Not certain about that.
Posted 0:30 a.m., 11.5.2008
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washingtonpost.com: We're about to be joined by Post reporter Kevin Merida, who has written extensively on Obama's campaign and life.
Posted 0:17 a.m., 11.5.2008
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New York: Mr. Kaiser, I'm really appreciative for your chats at key moments in the nation's history, and I'm here tonight again. I'm already starting to hear some pundits demand "bipartisanship" from Obama -- and, of course conservatives (for whom it's suddenly very convenient, after eight years of caring nothing for it) are calling for the same.
My question is simple: With Republicans having left the economy in tatters, involved us in an unnecessary war, run Congress in a brutally single-party fashion and turned government into a cash-cow for their supporters, why on earth would Obama want to involve them? Isn't that like rehiring Brownie to run FEMA? Thanks for your comment!
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. Being a hopeless romantic myself, I'm going to disagree with you. I've written a book, coming out in January, about how our politics descended into the toilet over the last 30 years. One of the important reasons was partisan warfare. If we can't break out of the cycle of zero-sum, all-out war between the parties, we won't be able to deal with the huge problems before us. Will we? I have no idea. Is it worth a try? I think it is.
Posted 0:17 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Helena, Mont.: Do you think that now the Republicans finally may see that the American people don't want more culture war -- the constant fight against gays, the abortion debate, the theocrats trying to impose their god on us -- and just want competent government? And when will McCain do a mea culpa on all the sleaze of this campaign and redeem himself with the media?
Robert G. Kaiser: Don't know. Thanks for posting.
Posted 0:01 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: Mr. Kaiser, thank you, sir, for hosting this forum. It has been a memorable evening.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you.
Posted 0:00 a.m., 11.5.2008
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washingtonpost.com: We're now joined by Robert Struckman, editor of New West. Send in your questions about Rocky Mountain races now.
Posted 0:00 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Robert Struckman: Hi. Robert Struckman here at NewWest.Net in Missoula, Montana. I'm glad to join the conversation again. Thanks for having me.
Posted 0:00 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Stockholm, Sweden: Thanks for showing the small comment -- we cannot forget what we are up against every single day.
Robert G. Kaiser: You're welcome.
Posted 0:00 a.m., 11.5.2008
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To Washington from an African-American woman: If black people voted only for black people, Alan Keyes would have tied Obama in 2004, and tonight might have looked a lot different. Or Alan Keyes would have been elected senator in Maryland in 1988 or 1992. To go with your supposition, Keyes should have split the vote with Obama tonight -- he ran under the Constitutional party. None of that happened, because blacks, whites, Latinos, Asians, young, old, rich, poor -- more than 45 million people voted for him. It's policy and ideals and beliefs and hope that got Obama elected, not skin color.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this.
Posted 0:00 a.m., 11.5.2008
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Yonkers, N.Y.: To get back to grimy politics, the Democrats wanted to break into the Western region, and they seem to have done so. The GOP stands accused of being a Southern regional party.
Robert G. Kaiser: Don't forget the upper plains states. But you're right, it's a smaller Red America for sure.
Posted 11:43 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: When will the African American community allow itself to be held accountable for its own bigotry? Tomorrow, I hope we ask African Americans who voted for Obama why they voted for him. Because he is a socialist? Because he is pro-abortion? Or was it primarily because he is black? Sadly, Obama's race is likely to be the primary reason that most African Americans chose Obama. That is bigotry.
Robert G. Kaiser: If I may say so, and I guess I can, this is a really small and nasty comment. I thought about ignoring it, but decided to let everyone see it.
The exit polls show that more than 40 percent of white voters cast their ballots today for Obama. Why did they vote for Obama? Might they have thought him the best man for the job? Might black and brown voters had the same opinion?
Posted 11:42 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Oak Hill, Va.: Great concession speech by McCain. Had that been his message all along, I would have voted for him. I wonder why he went Rovian instead of staying on board the Straight Talk Express...
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 11:38 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Fairfax, Va.: My memory of Gore's and Kerry's concession speeches is a bit fuzzy, but is it common to hear boos from the crowd whenever the winner's name is mentioned? I found it to be an odd reaction to the name of the next president-elect of the United States
Robert G. Kaiser: I thought that was a remarkable moment. Those initial boos were indeed typical of such situations; the emotionally committed supporters didn't want to acknowledge what had happened. But McCain's powerful speech overcame those initial emotions. Soon the crowd was applauding McCain as he congratulated Obama for his accomplishment. Quite something.
Posted 11:38 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Eastern Shore, Md.: From an Obama supporter: McCain is giving what sounds to me like a pretty gracious concession speech. If his campaign had been conducted in a similar tone, he might have had a different result.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 11:26 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Ann Arbor, Mich.: Yes, fireworks are legal (different chatter!) John McCain's concession speech is proof at how his campaign was grossly mismanaged. He already sounds like the fantastic senator we knew before. We were blessed with two amazing candidates, and are lucky two great Americans want to lead this country.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. I agree; it is a remarkable speech, still going on.
Posted 11:24 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: Robert -- do you believe that campaign insiders (on either side) are generally surprised by the incredibly narrow margin in the popular vote nationally? To what extent has the electoral map really been "redrawn" given this tight margin?
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't thnk the margin will be narrow in the morning. Remember, California.
Posted 11:24 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Barbados, West Indies: Not a question but a comment. I am very happy that Elizabeth Dole lost. I hope that this will make politicians think twice about extremely negative ads.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 11:18 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Ann Arbor, Mich.: In the middle of the city, there are fireworks going off.
Robert G. Kaiser: Is that legal?
Posted 11:18 p.m., 11.4.2008
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The Economy, Stupid: If that's what got Obama in, how long a honeymoon is he going to have? It's not clear to me how a president turns around an economy on a dime. Might disappointment settle in rather quickly if economic malaise continues or increases?
Robert G. Kaiser: Presidents' ability to improve an economy are indeed very limited. FDR didn't do throughout the '30s. But he won support from a depressed nation by trying very hard to make things better. Don't know if Obama could do that.
I do think we have opened a new door, and are moving out on something entirely new that we should not try to judge by the standards of the old politics. I could of course be wrong!
Posted 11:18 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Happy in the Heartland: Whatever else Barack Obama does as president, the enthusiasm he has summoned in our young people is truly gratifying. I work on a college campus, and four years ago I had students in my office weeping when Bush won. In the past year, I have been so heartened by the hope and energy Sen. Obama has inspirted in these young people. Our country will need all of that youthful energy to work its way back.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 11:15 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: McCain has phoned Obama to congratulate him, according to NBC
Posted 11:15 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Asheville, N.C.: Response to speculation posted earlier, on Virginia and North Carolina -- these states have a history of voting for Democratic governors and senators but Republican presidents. In other words, voters have a history of splitting tickets in these states. I tend to think anyone voting for Hagan or Warner would be inclined otherwise to vote for a generic Democrat over a generic Republican, but don't leap to the conclusion that it necessarily is racial. Man am I hoping North Carolina goes to Obama. I may be up late waiting for that call.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks
Posted 11:06 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Fairfax, Va.: How many votes are left to be counted?
Robert G. Kaiser: Millions, but we know the result.
Posted 11:06 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Lewisville, N.C.: After living through a very dark and divisive time in American history, for the first time in many years I am feeling truly optimistic about our future. My 10-year-old son got very involved in the political process -- we placed a yard sign, carved an Obama "rising sun" jack-o-lantern, he participated in exit-polling at his school and I took him with me to the polls where he and I pressed the touch screen together for Obama, after waiting in line for three hours (during which I explained to him that waiting three hours was no big thing compared to the sacrifices by those who ensured our ability to do so). This is certainly a historic election that I mark as a turning point -- in which we live in an America where anything is truly possible, anyone can grow up to be president, and extremism no longer rules.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you for sharing this.
Posted 11:04 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: Just want to thank George Bush (and maybe Sarah Palin) for getting us our first black president!
Robert G. Kaiser: And I thank you.
Posted 11:04 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Seattle: What do you make of Palin releasing her medical records the night before the election when they were promised much earlier? They were short and not negative, so it is hard to see why there was a delay. Was it just to show that the press essentially is toothless?
Robert G. Kaiser: Not much
Posted 11:01 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Oak Hill, Va.: Robert, Its time to tag 'em and bag 'em. McCain is toast -- it's just a question of whether he's well-done or extra-crispy.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Can't quarrel.
Posted 11:01 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: ABC and other networks are calling the election for Obama at this hour.
We have a new country.
Posted 11:01 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: Any prediction on the North Carolina presidential vote, based on the remaining precincts?
Robert G. Kaiser: Just talked to a smart friend in NC who says that Obama will sin. Let's wait a while.
Posted 11:00 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: What more do folks need to call Virginia for Obama? He is winning with 88 percent reporting, and the remaining precincts predominantly are in Democrat-friendly areas.
Robert G. Kaiser: The Post is now contemplating the question; I expect a call for Obama in Virginia soon.
Posted 10:59 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Los Angeles: I'm never asked for ID when voting either. Of course, my neighbor over the back fence and her daughter -- both of whom know me -- always are poll-workers at the table, and call out the street I live on to the person looking up in the address book.
Robert G. Kaiser: I'm pretty sure that most states don't require ID.
Posted 10:59 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Northern Virginia: Obama pledged not to raise taxes for those who make under $250,000 What about capital gains tax? Many who make less than that pay capital gains on stocks and business sales. At some point he said he would raise that tax as much as needed. What's your feeling about where the capital gains tax will go under an Obama administration?
Robert G. Kaiser: I expect Obama to propose major tax reform. Capital gains tax and taxes on dividends could both go up.
Posted 10:58 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Northeast Washington: What's the latest on the Carol Schwartz numbers?
washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Marc Fisher on Local Election Results (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
Robert G. Kaiser: It's close. Here's a link to Marc Fisher's chat, where he is writing about this.
Posted 10:58 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: Off the top of your head, who on the Republican side may be preparing for 2012? Personally I think the euphoria won't last that long. It won't even take some "testing" of a new president's mettle -- reality will set in. I'm no conservative, I'm just jaded.
Robert G. Kaiser: Republicans face huge problems. They are going to be at each other's throats. They have a serious paucity of national leaders. Today I'd bet that you'll see hats in the 2012 ring from Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee. Will that excite the country?
Posted 10:56 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Barbados, West Indies: I think, from someone watching the election from afar, that the main reason the Hispanic vote went for Obama is the McCain/Palin message that some people are more American than others. Not a comforting message if you speak with an accent and have browner skin...
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 10:55 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Salisbury, N.C.: Seems locally that the early voting numbers (both locally and statewide in North Carolina) were not accurate predictors of voter turnout. We had far less voting today than we expected based on early voting numbers. Is that holding true throughout the country?
Robert G. Kaiser: Do you know that for sure? I'm dubious.
Posted 10:55 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Salt Lake City: Assuming for the moment that Obama wins, do you think we will see a decline in negative ads in the next campaign cycle? Dole is out -- and as you mention, McCain was viewed as even more negative. Is it a fluke this year that negative campaigning didn't work, or is it a seismic shift?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. And I think we can assume for more than the moment that Obama is our president-elect. He has 202 electoral votes on The Post home page, and there are 73 more to come from California, Oregon and Washington alone.
He needs, as I know you remember, 270 to win.
Negative ads defeated Liddy Dole, I'd argue. They hurt all the Republicans running for Senate.
But they did no good for McCain, obviously. I doubt we've seen the last of them, not least because some will argue that Obama's negative ads helped him.
Posted 10:54 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Kristol on Palin: I don't know if you are watching it, but this "Daily Show"/Colbert thing on right now is a little disappointing.
Robert G. Kaiser: Hey, I'm chatting with you! "The Daily Show" has to wait.
Posted 10:52 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Re: Third Term in a Bad Economy: What was the economy like in 1988 when Bush won "Reagan's third term"? I don't remember, I was only three years old.
Robert G. Kaiser: It was in good shape.
Posted 10:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Minnesota Senate race: I just don't get what is happening with Coleman and Franken. Does anybody in Minnesota actually think that a "Saturday Night Live" comedian with no political experience will make a good senator? It'll take just one long, drawn-out hearing of the Agricultural Committee to make Franken regret his decision -- I just don't see him as having any interest in doing the often boring, work-a-day business of running a government. I think he ran just to get rid of Coleman, but anybody who votes for a candidate simply to get rid of another one is just nuts. You'd think people would know better.
Robert G. Kaiser: Hey, Americans have been throwing the bums out forever. It's an old national instinct.
Posted 10:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Reston, Va.: How can they call states that aren't reporting many precincts -- New Mexico, for instance?
Robert G. Kaiser: On the basis of thin returns and very strong exit poll results.
Posted 10:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Winchester, Va.: I agree with Helena, Mont. -- the democratic process in the United States isn't error-free, but we historically have weathered the change of parties and administrations calmly and without the violence and blood you see in other nations. While I firmly believe in the Democratic Party, the fact that our country is so evenly divided means it would be difficult for any branch to make major changes to our systems. As much as I would love to see some Democratic measures passed, I'm glad we have Republicans to temper any extremes. Thank you to the founding fathers for a system that, in its basic principles, works well.
On a side note I'm incredibly excited at the prospect of an Obama administration -- not because I think he's going to change the world, but because I think he's going to inspire us all to participate in our communities, in our country, in our world. We need a leader who asks us to look outward again.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 10:50 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Alexandria, Va.: Do you think a Democratic supermajority would enact the kind of legislation GOP fearmongers warned about, such as new gun bans, higher taxes, etc.? Recall there was a 10-year gun ban and high tax rates under Clinton until Bush came in.
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't. I expect Obama to govern with some caution, and to make a serious attempt at the bipartisanship he has been talking about. How serious? Don't know.
Posted 10:50 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Las Vegas: I think it's pretty obvious Obama is going to win more than 300 electoral votes tonight. I just hope hope McCain gets up there and concedes without any fuss.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 10:30 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: I voted today at 16th and Q streets N.W., and wasn't asked for identification. My friend, who voted at the same precinct about 15 minutes before me, also wasn't asked. Though I had to sign the book, there was no signature from previous years to confirm I was who I said I was. Is this legal? How do they know there isn't voter fraud?
Robert G. Kaiser: I voted at 14th and U streets and was not asked for ID either. I don't remember ever being asked for it in Washington.
Posted 10:30 p.m., 11.4.2008
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St. Paul, Minn.: Any chance Obama might get one electoral vote out of Nebraska?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, as indicated a moment ago. If Esch wins that House seat, Obama gets one vote.
Posted 10:29 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Tarboro, N.C.: It has been said in many television reports that Sarah Palin was a "drag" for the McCain ticket. Many so-called "experts" claim that her down-home image appeared to many voters as phony, which in turn hurt the McCain campaign. Do you think that there is any truth to those statements?
Robert G. Kaiser: There is a lot of truth to them, polls indicate, but because so many Americans concluded that Palin was not qualified to become president on short notice. On the other hand, as I've said earlier, I think the Republicans were probably doomed to lose this year no matter who they had running.
Posted 10:29 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Helena, Mont.: Watching the large crowd in Chicago and the large crowds in Denver, St. Louis, etc., one thing has really made an impression on me -- the quiet and calmness of these crowds. They're not rowdy, not violent, nothing like that -- just very calm. These are serious people taking their responsibility as citizens of this country seriously. I am so happy for that.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 10:28 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Los Angeles: Regarding why are Americans apolitical, in my humble opinion it's in part a result of our system. We have fixed terms, so there's almost no chance of a change of government between elections; even when Nixon resigned, another Republican took his place, and it would have been his chosen running mate if Agnew hadn't had to resign as well.
Compare with a parliamentary system -- you don't have a powerful president, and it's the balance of parties that determines who is prime minister; there is no fixed election schedule, and the press always is saying what would happen if an election were held today; and if the government makes a terrible gaffe -- like Bush has done so often -- they can be out of office instantly via a no-confidence vote.
All that makes parties and a parliamentary majority more important compared to politicians, which in turn makes issues and policies important compared to the personal qualities that are stressed in the U.S. Gov. Palin is a choice example. Our Constitution was set up in part to constrain the president's (king's) power, but European parliamentary countries have evolved to a point where the monarch has so little power that they're not relevant, and the checks and balances operate at other levels rather than between parliament and the crown.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks. I don't agree, but it's an interesting comment. I think we're apolitical because we're apolitical. DeToqueville saw it a long time ago.
Posted 10:28 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Virginia: Is it safe to guess that Obama will take Virginia? It looks like Fairfax has the most votes to count, and they seem to be voting overwhelmingly for Obama.
Robert G. Kaiser: To guess, sure. I am guessing so myself. But it's still a guess.
Posted 10:27 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: "Capable for electing candidates regardless of their race" ... make that "despite their race." You have to admit that the economy, Obama's well-run campaign and his own persona helped his candidacy. It's not the same thing as America being ready to elect the next qualified nonwhite person. Qualifications, however equal, just don't do it.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks. Don't be too parsimonious with your recognition of what has happened here. It is, as Ed Sullivan used to say, Really Big.
Posted 10:26 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Stockholm, Sweden: Robert, I'm still with you, barely. Any sense how long after the polls close on the West Coast before McCain concedes? I really want to watch that speech. Of course, I want to watch Obama's more, but first things first.
Robert G. Kaiser: I would guess that there will not be a concession before 11:30 EST, an hour from now, and it could be later. Sorry!
Posted 10:26 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Logan, Utah: Any news from Nebraska?
Robert G. Kaiser: McCain is winning, but narrowly. Esch, the Democrat in the Omaha district, is ahead in early returns.
Posted 10:25 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Falls Church, Va.: First, I am so glad to be able to change the channel from CNN to a real news station -- Comedy Central. Second -- any news on the overall turnout and whether we are looking at any serious history-making?
Robert G. Kaiser: Turnout is very high, but until we know about California, we don't know enough.
Posted 10:23 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Austin, Texas: Assuming things continue this way, at what time do you expect McCain to concede, and Obama to make a victory speech?
Robert G. Kaiser: We have no info on this. obviously it's too early now for either to do so. Polls on the West Coast are open until 11 p.m. EST.
Posted 10:22 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Fargo, N.D.: Congratulations on your win tonight! Obama could never have done this without the overwhelming support of the supine press. Who needed journalism anyway?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think this is a really foolish view. There are no, I repeat NO cases in American history of a party winning a third consecutive term in the White House when the economy is in bad shape. The Republicans did themselves in here, I think.
Posted 10:22 p.m., 11.4.2008
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washingtonpost.com: Running In Place: The Predictable Election (Post, Nov. 4)
Posted 10:21 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Alexandria, Va.: There are some exit poll numbers asking voters who they would have picked in a Clinton-McCain race. Any thoughts on how that contest would have played out?
Robert G. Kaiser: That question was not asked. I think myself that clinton would have won, Dodd would have won, Biden would have one, any plausible Democrat would have won this year. Just my hunch.
I'll ask Chris Hopkins to link here to a story of mine from today's paper which helps explain why I think this.
Posted 10:21 p.m., 11.4.2008
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The Map: The red/blue divide on the map is looking very much like the Civil War. The only part that is that is blanketed red is the South. What conclusions can be drawn from this? Is the South just not ready for a black president yet? When you look at Virginia in particular, Warner took the state in a landslide, while Obama only may win because of Northern Virginia. This will make for fascinating analysis.
Robert G. Kaiser: Obama can win North Carolina. More important, I suspect, is how much closer many other southern states will be this time.
Posted 10:21 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Laurel, Md.: Is Virginia ready to be called by looking at the counties remaining? What about Florida, where Obama still leads by about 200,000 votes? What is up in the District of Columbia ... no votes counted still? Thanks guys!
Robert G. Kaiser: Washington is painfully slow. Virginia and Florida both look good for Obama to me, but let's wait a while longer.
Posted 10:20 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: Any chance one of the moderate Republicans switches parties?
Robert G. Kaiser: Doubt it, but I don't know.
Posted 10:19 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: I am a former student of Obama's who took one of his classes while he was contemplating running for the Senate. It is almost surreal to think that, come morning, he will be the president-elect. Regardless how one might feel about his policies (I tend to agree with him), I cannot stress enough how kind, decent, thoughtful and intelligent Obama is. This is a good night for our country.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 10:19 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Bellingham, Wash.: Mr. Kaiser, are we possibly witnessing a generational, rather than racial (or gender if you count the primaries) shift in American politics tonight? I always have thought Obama's appeal was that he represented the end of Baby Boomer bickering, and that was why the Clintons, etc., reacted so negatively to his candidacy -- and why young people were so energized...
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. I think we could go even further: this is the beginning of a new phase of American history, and an end to the era that began with Ronald Reagan's election in 1980. Or so it seems to me.
Posted 10:19 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Obama/Biden Senate seats: Do the appointeess get to stay for the whole term, or until there is some special election? Do Delaware and Illinois both have Democratic governors? I won't press you to suggest possible replacements -- I'll save that for Cillizza later this week (*smile*).
Robert G. Kaiser: Both governors are Democrats. They appoint a fill-in to serve until 2010 in both states, I believe -- sure about Delaware, checking on Illinois.
Posted 10:18 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Chapel Hill, N.C.: Do the election results indicate that the United States no longer can be considered a "racist country"? Certainly the country still has many racists, but it seems quite capable for electing candidates regardless of their race. This seems like more than a milestone.
Robert G. Kaiser: You are right about that.
Posted 10:16 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Laurel, Md.: Assuming the rest of the night follows script, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that the Democrats won the White House when Barack Obama delivered the keynote address at the 2004 convention. He wasn't even a senator yet (he was the nominee for that position). Who decided that he should deliver that speech?
Robert G. Kaiser: John Kerry decided. But I disagree with you. A bad economy, a gloomy public and a disastrously unpopular incumbent president were the most important factors, I think.
Posted 10:15 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Minneapolis: How much credit should Howard Dean be getting for the expansion of the map for the Democrats?
Robert G. Kaiser: A good deal, but less than Plouffe, Axelrod and Obama.
Posted 10:14 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Sun Prairie, Wis.: How are votes counted in Georgia? I understand there was a lot of early voting in that state -- are early votes tabulated first, or are votes reported by counties however they were cast?
Ryan Thornburg: I don't know specifically about Georgia, but in most states the early votes are released when polls close.
Posted 10:08 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Kansas City, Mo.: With Obama at 200 electoral votes and California with 55, Hawaii with 4, Oregon with 7 and Washington with 11, isn't this over? I called it at 9:30 p.m. central time.
Robert G. Kaiser: As I've said already, Ohio was the death knell for McCain.
Posted 9:59 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Salt Lake City: Mr. Kaiser, thanks to you (and your guests) as always for these wonderful evening chats. I am anxiously awaiting the polls out here in Utah -- I know the state will go to McCain, but would not be surprised to see Obama cut his support to less than 60 percent. The enthusiasm for Obama in Salt Lake County and Summit County (Park City) is huge, and we had a very cold rainy/snowy day that may have kept some lukeworm McCain supporters home. Anyhow, I'm hoping our state senator is defeated in part because of Obama turnout helping her challenger. (My husband will fess up to looking forward to having our yard uncluttered by signs!)
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks.
Posted 9:59 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: Has opposition to the winner-takes-all rule died down in the midst of the Obama excitement? I can't wrap my mind around why this doesn't trouble more people -- it just doesn't seem fair.
Robert G. Kaiser: It has never really been an issue in the country, has it?
Posted 9:59 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Falls Church, Va.: Any news on your end about Maryland polls still being open (or at least still taking voters who were in line two-and-a-half hours ago)?
Robert G. Kaiser: Just checked with the Maryland desk; no polls are still open. The counting is slow.
Posted 9:54 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Albuquerque, N.M.: NBC just called New Mexico for Obama. How does this impact Gov. Richardson's chances for being a major player in an Obama administration?
Robert G. Kaiser: Way too soon to say.
Posted 9:53 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: As a sleepyhead, I wonder how both McCain and Obama sleep, and how much they've slept in, say, the past week, and how much will they sleep in the next week. Do you think/know they'll just fall down in exhaustion tonight and stay in bed for a couple of days?
Robert G. Kaiser: I'm with you! I don't know how they do it. Nor do I know how many Zs they'll be getting now.
Posted 9:53 p.m., 11.4.2008
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To the London Commenter, Re: Palin: I think Gov. Palin really energized the people who already were going to vote Republican, and not enough independents.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks
Posted 9:52 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Former Virginia Resident: Although the race looks better for Obama, I can create a plausible McCain win scenario: McCain would need to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and then take Minnesota. Until we know the Florida, Virginia or North Carolina numbers (not exit-poll-based predictions), I won't feel secure.
Robert G. Kaiser: Don't hold your breath.
Posted 9:52 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Falls Church, Va.: What happens to Biden's and Obama's Senate seats?
Robert G. Kaiser: I believe both are replaced by appointees by the governors of their states.
Posted 9:52 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: Mr.Kaiser, washingtonpost.com's homepage shows Sen. Obama with 175 electoral votes. That, plus the 55 he is sure to win in California, gives him 230 -- only 40 away. Then you have 27 in Florida and 15 in North Carolina -- both states he is leading by sizeable margins. This evening is, in some respects, turning out to be less than tantalizing. Don't get me wrong -- I'm supremely thankful for that.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, with the fall of Ohio to Obama, McCain has run out of luck.
Posted 9:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: What are the odds that Bush/Cheney will become high-paid employees of Halliburton or another Defense contractor shortly after leaving office? Will they be able to directly profit from their wars?
Robert G. Kaiser: I doubt it.
Posted 9:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Falls Church, Va.: I am watching CNN, this chat, and listening to WJFK. I haven't seen anything about the House races -- how many seats are the Democrats picking up there?
Robert G. Kaiser: Let me see what I can find out...
Posted 9:50 p.m., 11.4.2008
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washingtonpost.com: Last of the Culture Warriors (Post, Nov. 3)
Posted 9:42 p.m., 11.4.2008
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London: If Sarah Palin drew such crowds during her campaign, why is she being written off already? She was perhaps the best colloquial presenter for a long time in this election -- no mean feat, given her experience. Do you think she is finished as a leader?
Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a link to a good column from The Post on Palin. What happened in this campaign was fascinating. When the country first met her in early September, she was widely liked and admired, the polls reported. But since then her standing has plummeted. She became a real drag on the ticket.
Is she finished? Who knows? But I would not invest heavily in her future as a national leader.
Posted 9:42 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: Professor Thornburg, if you had to pick one defining moment of the Hagan vs. Dole campaign, which comes to your mind? Was it the "Godless" uproar?
Ryan Thornburg: I think the ad was a big part of it, although a recent Elon poll found that North Carolinian's thought McCain's campaign was more negative than Doles. Also, negative ads tend to work in North Carolina -- and elsewhere.
A big part of it might have been a Winston-Salem Journal story earlier in the campaign saying that Dole spent little time in North Carolina. The Dole campaign said the article was inaccurate, but I never saw their proof to the contrary. In any case, from anecdotal conversations, I think that article played in to a belief that many North Carolinians had about Dole not being as visible on constituent service as Helms had been.
Posted 9:37 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Tottori, Japan: I wonder what your opinion is on how much Sarah Palin has affected this election result?
Robert G. Kaiser: Polls show that Sarah Palin's standing with voters plummeted over the last two months, and a great many voters say they cannot imagine her a heartbeat away from the presidency. Nevertheless, in the end I don't think we will see her role as significant. In my view, the Republicans' problems in this race reflect fundamental facts and trends in this country that established the context for this election.
Posted 9:37 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Laurel, Md.: MSNBC has called Ohio for Obama and beat CNN on the Pennsylvania call. Can you clarify on why CNN is waiting on Ohio and missed the Pennsylvania call?
Robert G. Kaiser: CNN is being very, very cautious tonight. They just called Ohio for Obama.
Posted 9:36 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Gaithersburg, Md.: The Democrats seem headed for their projected 57-58 senators. With such a strong majority, how likely is it that they'll toss Lieberman from the caucus for supporting McCain?
Robert G. Kaiser: My hunch is that they will remove him as committee chairman (of the committee on homeland security and government affairs), perhaps not kick him out of the caucus. But he has burned bridges to his former friends and colleagues that won't be easily repaired.
Posted 9:33 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Asheville, N.C.: Okay, it won't last, but how strange is it to see Texas and Houston -- with almost 2,000,000 and 600,000 votes respectively -- colored blue?
Ryan Thornburg: I'd echo Bob's comments about Texas turning more blue at least at some level. Democrats there are hoping to pick up nine seats in the state House to take control of that body.
Posted 9:31 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Spartanburg, S.C.: Why the gap between Warner and Obama in early reporting in Virginia?
Ryan Thornburg: From what I see at quick glance in exit polls, it's this: 39 percent of white voters in Virginia are going for Obama and 56 percent are going for Warner.
Posted 9:28 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: CBS has just called OHIO for Obama. We have seen this coming. I think it means that Obama will be our next president, but that's just me talking. The Post will make a more formal call later.
Posted 9:25 p.m., 11.4.2008
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To Professor Thornburg: One political strategy book this past cycle was called "Whistling Past Dixie," and described how the Democrats could, should and would become the majority by ignoring the South and running against its political values. The map is shaping up about that way. Is this election a firm repudiation by the rest of the country of the kind of politics represented by George W. Bush, Trent Lott, Mitch McConnell, Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey?
Ryan Thornburg: I'm not sure what kind of politics those are, other than Republican politics, but it is interesting to note that McCain appears to be winning the values voters in the South while Obama is winning the voters for whom the economy is the most important issue.
I also think that the lines between "South" and "not-South" are blurring. See another book, "Dixie Rising."
Posted 9:24 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Alphabet No Longer: I voted in Maryland today and the registration process was electronic -- no more standing in line by last name. I went in and they asked my name, I handed over my identification (my last name is not spelled phonetically), they printed a receipt much like a credit card receipt, and I signed it the chief election judge signed it. Easy and efficient. I remember voting in Northeast Washington, where the average poll worker in our precinct was 102 and it took them forever to find my name in their books.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks
Posted 9:20 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Asheville, N.C.: How well does Obama have to do in the 1-85 corridor to make up for the Peidmont and mountains? He seems to be doing really well there, but how well is necessary? I'm a Tar Heel who would love nothing more than to see Jesse Helms's home state commit its delegates to an African American presidential candidate.
Ryan Thornburg: That's a good question. I'll certainly be looking at North Carolina's largest 15 counties -- many along the I-85 corridor from Durham down through Charlotte -- and comparing returns there to the other 85 counties. I'll also be looking to see how Obama does in the rural east compared to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bev Perdue.
Posted 9:19 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Reston, Va.: Hi, and thanks for doing this chat. I just heard on the local NBC affiliate that 50 percent of eligible voters in Virginia had voted by 10 a.m. this morning. I think this is astonishing (in a great way!). I mean, when was the last time 50 percent of eligible voters turned out for anything, much less that early? I'm thrilled to be part of this.
Ryan Thornburg: The early turnout will be interesting to watch to see whether overall turnout is boosted. I believe that turnout in Virginia in 2004 was around 60 percent of the voting age population. In North Carolina, about 40 percent of registered voters turned out early, but lines were short today -- perhaps an indication that the pool of voters hasn't changed much. They may have just changed when the voted. The head of the state Board of Elections here had made aggressive turnout predictions that now appear to be a bit shy.
Posted 9:17 p.m., 11.4.2008
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washingtonpost.com: Thanks for having me today. I'm coming to you live from the basement of the School of Journalism and Mass Communication in Chapel Hill, where we've just watched Kay Hagan oust Elizabeth Dole -- who was once rated by Gallup as the third most admired woman in the world -- from the U.S. Senate after one term. Now we're turning our attention to other races around the South.
Posted 9:12 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Denver: Will Obama take Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Missouri and the possible surprise of Texas to obtain the 270 to be president of the united States?
Robert G. Kaiser: And who will win the World Series next year? A little patience please. We'll all know soon.
Posted 9:09 p.m., 11.4.2008
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San Francisco: Now that Obama appears to have won Pennsylvania, does McCain have any more avenues to victory?
Robert G. Kaiser: Theoretically yes. Bush lost Pa. in 2004.
Posted 9:08 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Albany, N.Y.: What accounts for differences across networks in how much time it takes to "call" individual states? Are they all doing basically the same thing and looking at the same data, or are methods different enough to require more or less data to make a defensible call?
Robert G. Kaiser: Once they fought to be first; now they seem more concerned about being right. This is a positive change. They do all have their own methods, and of course their own people.
Posted 9:08 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Mark Blumenthal: Thanks everyone! That 30 minutes really flew by. Hope to see some of you at Pollster.com.
Posted 9:02 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Jericho, N.Y.: Always great to read your comments. Thanks for providing an interesting forum. It is helping me deal with the suspense!
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for checking in. Breathe deeply! Have a beer!
Posted 9:02 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Santa Fe, N.M.: What do you think was the most important factor in Obama's ability to poll so well in previously red states?
Mark Blumenthal: Short and sweet: It's all about both the economy and dissatisfaction with President Bush. Americans are ready for a change.
Posted 9:00 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: Is it just me, or do you also pay attention to the pictures chosen for the candidates? For example, your front page shows a smiling Obama and a slightly-sour McCain. CNN has a cautious Obama, a jubilant McCain. And that "other" paper? Wow, their pictures of both are just terrible.
Robert G. Kaiser: Photo editors choose pictures for their emotional content and artistic merit, they tell me. I can assure you there is no politics involved.
Posted 8:58 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Anonymous:: As you examine returns, try to give us the breakdown of urban, suburban and rural voting patterns. Thanks.
Mark Blumenthal: I'm going to cop out a little and point you to where you can find the answers yourself: MSNBC, CNN and CBS are all posting exit poll tabulations right now that you can use to check those breaks yourself.
Posted 8:58 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Alexandria, Va.: If Spartansburg is asking why Warner is doing so much better than Obama, it's because Mark Warner is so hugely popular throughout the state. No presidential candidate (other than Mark Warner, had he run) would have a chance to win anywhere near the votes Warner will. Whichever presidential candidate carries the state, Warner has the Senate seat by a landslide.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 8:57 p.m., 11.4.2008
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To Blumenthal: Same question Kaiser answered: Do the states mostly show a consistent, universal shift from last time (like Obama equals Kerry plus 3 percent), or are the changes very different in various states?
Mark Blumenthal: It is a little early to try to form judgments about that, since what we are seeing now are preliminary estimates. As we learned in 2004 and during the primaries this year, those early estimates can sometimes be off by more than a few points. If we go off of the pre-election polls, we did see far bigger gains for Obama in the Western states and the midwestern states that border Illinois.
Posted 8:55 p.m., 11.4.2008
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washingtonpost.com: Joining the discussion shortly: Associate Professor Ryan Thornburg of the University of North Carolina's Project on Public Life. Send in any questions you have about Southern-state races now!
Posted 8:54 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Las Vegas, N.M.: I'd like to pick up on the point about America being an apolitical country. I know Mark is joining you and I am curious as his views on this topic of political engagement. In specific, I am curious as to whether people are apolitical because they feel powerless, or apolitical because -- despite problems -- they think they are A-okay. Has this ever been polled? If so, what were the results?
Mark Blumenthal: Wow. Great question. Political scientists have spent many years studying political engagement in many forms, though I'm not sure I have a quick snappy answer to your question. You will certainly see expressions of a sense of powerlessness among those who are not engaged in politics, although the causes of political alienation are very much debated by those who study it.
Posted 8:52 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Supreme Court Question: While not explicitly stated, abortion is a Supreme Court issue. I am 34 and never have lived in a time when abortion was illegal. I think this make the argument more theoretical to me than to older women. Today on the phone my mother said "we should be safe for years if Obama wins." She was talking about the Supreme Court. Many of her friends feel the same way. Living in the time before Roe, my mom saw the consequences of illegal abortions first-hand.
This is a critically important issue for her, so a former Republican committeewoman, Regan and Nixon and George H.W. Bush voter, took herself to the Democratic National Committee headquarters this year and phone-banked for Obama. She sports an "old white woman for Obama" button on her purse and is creating very real stress in my Republican father's life. It was bad enough that both his daughters ended up liberal; his wife turning is more than he can take.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for sharing this family drama.
Posted 8:52 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Falls Church, Va.: Can you update us on the abortion referendums in Colorado and California? Also, how is Elwyn Tinkleberg doing?
Robert G. Kaiser: Polls still open in both states. Minnesota too, I think.
Posted 8:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Rochester, Minn.: Has anything gone wrong for Obama yet tonight? Are there any indicators of a possible McCain victory?
Robert G. Kaiser: No, and none. Which doesn't mean it's over, it isn't. But it's a good way to think about what has happened so far.
Posted 8:51 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Cameron, N.C.: What is the definition of a first-time voter? I moved to North Carolina and registered early this year. Does this make me a first-time voter even though I've been voting for 40 years in other states?
Robert G. Kaiser: You want to be a first-time voter? You're a first time voter! In North Carolina, anyhow.
Posted 8:50 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Bainbridge Island, Wash.: I live in a strongly Democratic area, but ususally we have a loud Republican minority here. I have yet to see a McCain yard sign. There were plenty of Bush signs the past two elections, but the Republicans seem chastised and embarrassed here. I wonder how that is going to play out in local and state levels, to have only muted support for the national ticket.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Of course polls have said Obama will win very easily in Washington State.
Posted 8:49 p.m., 11.4.2008
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California: Why is CNN giving South Carolina to McCain when the current data shows Obama polling ahead? How do they make these calls?
Mark Blumenthal: Not sure which numbers you are looking at. The actual count being posted here on the Post shows McCain leading, as do the estimates reflected in the exit poll tabulations (which incidentally, you can see on our Election Night map at Pollster.com).
But you will sometimes see a network make a call in one direction when the first scattered returns seem to point the other way.
The reason is that the networks conduct exit polls and then gather vote returns very quickly for a random sample of precincts in each state. Unlike the raw count, they know that there results are representative (within predictable ranges of error) and so they can make such calls.
Bottom line: They are not relying on the raw and often unrepresentative results we see crawling at the bottom of our TV screens.
Posted 8:47 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Arlington, Va.: Mr. Kaiser, thanks for taking my earlier question in Re: exit polls and Pennsylvania. As a follow-up, does The Post intend to release exit-poll data after the election? I'm curious to see where the exit polls stand next to actual results. Thanks!
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, we and others will publish the exit polls when they are complete.
Posted 8:41 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Boston: Shouldn't the networks always report (for context) the partial precinct numbers with a comparison to how those precincts/counties voted in the previous election? They have the data, as some of them periodically have picked specific counties to show that comparison.
Robert G. Kaiser: It's hard, and boring, to read so many numbers, I think. As I said earlier, CNN is doing this well.
Posted 8:41 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Spartanburg, S.C.: Why the gap between Warner and Obama in early reporting in Virginia?
Robert G. Kaiser: we never know why such gaps occur; we depend on the Associated Press for our election results.
Posted 8:40 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: Jean Shaheen has won a big victory in New Hampshire over incumbent Senator Sununu. And Obama carried the state too.
Posted 8:39 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Albany, N.Y.: For Mark Blumenthal: You folks on Pollster repeatedly have noted that the key to Obama doing well in the South is an extremely high black turnout, which reduces the share of the white electorate Obama needs to win. From what you can tell so far, is the black turnout high enough (or, conversely, the white vote low enough) to make any of the Southern states reachable for Obama?
Mark Blumenthal: At the moment, the national exit poll is showing a 13 percent African composition, which if it holds would represent a 2-percentage-point increase since 2004. However, I think it is a little premature to be making too much of these early exit poll numbers. The racial composition will likely change as the vote estimates used to weight the exit polls gradually improve over the course of the evening.
Big blue: If Barack Obama pulls out a win in North Carolina (the initial tabulations show him with a slight lead) it's certainly a sign that black turnout was high enough.
Posted 8:39 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: Hey Mark, just wanted to thank you for giving us such a great product with pollster.com. It is so easy to read and interpret, and I have been obsessing over the data since the summer. Truly a fantastic Web site that has caused my work productivity to plummet!
Mark Blumenthal: Well, first Hello to everyone, and thanks for the kind words. We've worked hard on it (and are, of course, still working hard tonight. Now, on to your questions.
Posted 8:35 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: I was disappointed upon entering the booth this morning that there was so little choice. A couple races were completely uncontested. There were too, too few third-party candidates. Massive turnout we should all be proud of -- but little choice? We can do better.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 8:34 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Gaithersburg, Md.: After all the votes are counted, will most states just show a consistent shift from last time (like Obama equals Kerry plus 3 percent), or have some states truly gone in a different direction?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. Though I cannot answer it yet based on today's votes, I think it is already safe to say that yes, the country has changed a lot since 2004. I expect tonight's final map to look considerably different than the 2004 version.
Posted 8:33 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: ABC has just called the North Carolina Senate race for Kay Hagan, the Democrat. She appears to have beaten Liddy Dole quite decisively. This is a good sign for Obama's chances there as well, I think.
Posted 8:32 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Cleveland: According to Ohio media, Sen. Obama has a commanding lead in this state right now. It looks like election machines here are working as designed. What will be the tightest U.S. state tonight?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. Ohio looks pretty good for Obama right now, you are right. I have no idea which state will turn out to be the closest.
Posted 8:31 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Asheville, N.C.: Okay, it won't last, but how strange is it to see Texas and Houston -- with almost 2,000,000 and 600,000 votes in. respectively -- colored blue?
Robert G. Kaiser: You know, Kay Bailey Hutchison, the Texas Republican senator, has been telling her colleagues for some time that Texas was becoming a Democratic state. This is a result of Demographics, especially the growing Latino population there. So maybe we should get used to a really competitive Texas. Not that I expect Obama to win it this year, but the state is in flux.
Posted 8:30 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Harrisonburg, Va.: As a "first-time voter" I voted for Obama because it's true that the Republicans do not deserve any sympathy. As you stated earlier, we are heading into a new political era and I believe Obama's pragmatism and clear leadership abilities will bring us the change we desire.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 8:27 p.m., 11.4.2008
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The Young Vote: The Republican's next challenge will be coming up with a nominee under 70 who isn't the son of an ex-president.
Robert G. Kaiser: You think?
Posted 8:25 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Arlington, Va.: NBC called Pennsylvania for Obama shortly after polls closed. I thought all major networks had concluded exit polls were unreliable? How can they then call this state so early?
Robert G. Kaiser: Can't speak for NBC. I can say that the exit poll offers reassurance that NBC had a basis for its decision, but it isn't enough for The Post yet.
Posted 8:24 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Asheville, N.C.: How well does Obama have to do in the 1-85 corridor to make up for the Peidmont and mountains? He seems to be doing really well there, but how well is necessary? I'm a Tar Heel who would love nothing more than to see Jesse Helms's home state commit its delegates to an African American presidential candidate.
Robert G. Kaiser: How well? Well. Stay tuned, you'll have a result soon I suspect.
Posted 8:21 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Almost over...: I'm glad Election Day is here and that we are on our way to a new era! The election season cannot end without acknowledging the stamina of the candidates and the press pool! I saw the same reporters on television at all hours of the day .(Please, Andrea Mitchell, take a couple of hours off!) The ability of the candidates and surrogates to get to any and all points around the country -- amazing! I'm tired thinking about it, and hope that all involved get some well-deserved rest
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
Posted 8:21 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Columbia, Md: Hi there. I always enjoy the chats. I am wondering about all the early voting and absentee ballots sent in days and weeks ago. Can't they be revealed after the polls close? Shouldn't the actual numbers be presented sooner? Thanks.
Robert G. Kaiser: Already replied to a similar question: in most cases, absentee and early votes will be counted and reported today.
Posted 8:15 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Palo Alto, Calif.: If you were Star Trek's Mr. Spock, what would you put the proability at for an Obama win at?
Robert G. Kaiser: A Trekie I am not. A predictor I am not either. Sorry.
Posted 8:15 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: Do we know where the tallies are in in Virginia? I know McCain is leading right now. Are the results from Northern Virginia in yet? Thanks for taking my question!
washingtonpost.com: Map: Virginia Presidential and U.S. Senate Race Results
Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a link to help you keep up. The exit poll suggests that Obama is doing well in Virginia. We will wait for more details before stating it any more strongly.
Posted 8:14 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: Another intriguing tidbit: "First time voters," those casting their first presidential ballot this year, are even stronger for Obama than young voters.
Posted 8:13 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: A lull in the questions allows me to spend some time with the exit polls that we have. One fascinating number: so far in the national exit poll, young voters under 30 are going for Obama by more than 2:1. Of course the key may turn out to be how many such young people cast ballots, but this is compelling evidence of the Republican Party's big new problem. Young Americans just aren't sympathetic to Republicans.
Posted 8:12 p.m., 11.4.2008
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washingtonpost.com: Quick note: We'll be joined by Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com at about 8:30 p.m., so send in any questions you might have about exit polls or other polling.
Posted 8:08 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Iowa: My son is serving in the Peace Corps in Panama and he just called from the one and only phone in his remote mountain village to find out the latest election results. Alas, not much to report, as the projections seem to be coming in very slowly. (He voted absentee for Obama -- the Peace Corps volunteers were very happy to hear Obama say in the most recent debate that he would like to expand the program.)
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for this. How's his Internet connection, I wonder? Just kidding!
Posted 8:05 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Re: Edison Mitofsky: So is 2004 why the networks aren't calling Pennsylvania? What do they need to do -- confirm that the precinct results basically are matching the exit polling? Help us novices!
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes that is right. Everyone is gunshy because of the 2004 experience, as they/we should be. It's 8 p.m.; we don't have to rush, do we?
Posted 8:04 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Reston, Va.: Hi, and thanks for doing this chat. I just heard on the local NBC affiliate that 50 percent of eligible voters in Virginia had voted by 10 a.m. this morning. I think this is astonishing (in a great way!). I mean, when was the last time 50 percent of eligible voters turned out for anything, much less that early? I'm thrilled to be part of this.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Of course, a lot of them voted early, which was possible in Va for a number of days.
Posted 8:04 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Stockholm, Sweden: Hi Robert. I always love these chats, but now I live six hours ahead of Eastern Time. What can you do to help speed things up a bit? Of course, I'm only joking -- I plan to stay with this as long as it takes, even if I fall asleep standing up at work tomorrow, er today. By the way, I cast my vote by mail three weeks ago. Thanks.
Robert G. Kaiser: Sorry, my time machine is in the shop. I too hope for something speedier than 2000 and 2004.
Posted 7:55 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: Where is Palin tonight? Is she still in Alaska? What if McCain wins? Shouldn't she be in Arizona?
Robert G. Kaiser: She is in Arizona with McCain.
Posted 7:55 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Laurel, Md.: "Robert G. Kaiser: News flash: Pennsylvania is going to Obama, according to Edison-Mitofsky, proprietors of the exit poll, which just called the race. New Hampshire also goes for Obama, Edison-Mitofsky says." This is the outfit that called the election for Kerry in the middle of the day in 2004, and sent the stock market down 100 points, right?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes. They of course wee more embarrassed by what happened in 2004 than anyone. They have worked hard to do better this time. We'll see if they have.
Posted 7:54 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: While we're waiting for more concrete results to come in, believe it or not, what moved me today (my first time voting as a D.C. resident), was less the historic presidential vote and more the number of races on the ballot that essentially were uncontested races for impotent offices. I had given his very little thought before (embarrassingly), but it is frankly galling, in my view, that full-fledged, taxpaying United States citizens simply, 100 percent, are shut out of the legislative branch of our government, that every other citizen is entitled to participate in. Does The Post have a position on D.C. statehood? How is this not a truly fundamental civil rights issue?
Robert G. Kaiser: Wow, you are a newcomer. Yes, The Post has crusaded on its editorial page for years in favor of both statehood and congressional representation. As a native Washingtonian myself, I don't mind saying that I agree with you entirely. I am not sure statehood is practical, but we could surely have voting representation in Congress.
Posted 7:53 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Robert G. Kaiser: News flash: Pennsylvania is going to Obama, according to Edison-Mitofsky, proprietors of the exit poll, which just called the race. New Hampshire also goes for Obama, Edison-Mitofsky says.
Posted 7:48 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Washington: Hi Robert. How can Vermont be called for Obama if 0 percent of the precincts have reported? Now, I am not naive and figure Obama will win Vermont along with other New England states -- you can say the same with McCain and Texas and some Southern states. What's stopping the networks from calling states that are almost certain to go to either one of the candidates? Thank you.
Robert G. Kaiser: I suspect because the Vermont exit poll is just overwhelming, but I don't know. The Post did not buy the Vermont poll (these things cost us a lot of money.)
Posted 7:45 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Boston: How many of the polling sites in Virginia actually are closed? Everyone in line at 7 p.m. gets to vote, right?
Robert G. Kaiser: Correct. We have no way of knowing how many are not yet closed.
Posted 7:44 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Re: Supreme Court: There was much less emphasis on wedge issue of all kinds. The problems are too obvious for anyone who spent their whole time arguing about gay marriage or the Pledge of Allegiance to look like a non-serious candidate in a serious time.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for this. (Confused readers: see an earlier question below on the role of the Supreme Court in the election.)
Posted 7:44 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Palo Alto, Calif.: I know its illogical, but I'm extremely nervous. I really want to see Obama win. I don't want to be disappointed again. How many seats do you expect Democrats to wind up in the Senate?
Robert G. Kaiser: There are books to be written about your anxiety--and that of like-minded Democratic voters.
I expect 57 or 58 Democrats in the next Senate. This is a guess.
Posted 7:43 p.m., 11.4.2008
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St. Petersburg, Fla.: I think it might be a good idea to issue a reminder every 10 minutes or so that these numbers being reported on the news are not final or necessarily accurate results. Precincts report at different rates; sometimes 1 percent reporting can tell you a lot, and sometimes 50 percent reporting can leave a lot to be told. Everyone needs to remember to breathe for the next few hours.
Robert G. Kaiser: You are right. This is just a basic fact that everyone should keep in mind for the next couple of hours.
Posted 7:43 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Seattle: Is it true that the main question tonight will be whether the Senate goes gets to 60 Democratic votes, or is stuck on 59?
Robert G. Kaiser: No, I think this is overrated. 60 Democratic senators would be huge of course, but not all Democratic senators think alike, and indeed, not all Republican senators do either. In actual cloture votes, as they are called, where 60 votes are needed to end a Senate debate and bring the pending matter up for a vote, I would expect the next Senate to reveal interesting intraparty differences. In other words, I don't expect either GOP or Dems to impose ironclad discipline.
Posted 7:39 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Rockville, Md.: With all the computer technology available (and I'm sure, in use) it wouldn't be too hard to put some context behind the totals with "7 percent of precincts reporting," by comparing the totals with four years ago from the same precincts. If it's 50 percent to 50 percent today but those same precincts were 40 percent to 60 percent four years ago, that's pretty good info to know. I do things like that at work all the time, in a different field.
Robert G. Kaiser: You're right. The problem is bandwidth, so to speak. There is no easy way to convey such information systematically. I note that CNN is telling viewers how tonight's early results differ from 2004's. That's useful.
Posted 7:37 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Cannon Falls, Minn.: Mr. Kaiser, thanks for doing this. I was with you in 2006 too. I love these chats! I read The Washington Post now everyday because of these interactions with reporters. Thanks for being here tonight. I'm so excited about this election, and hoping that my guy Obama meets the high expectations.
Robert G. Kaiser: Nice to hear from you. Thanks. Your excitement will be resolved before too long, I think.
Posted 7:36 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Yonkers, N.Y.: So if the polls are right, does Howard Dean become the new genius, the successor to Rove in the high esteem of political junkies?
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't know, of course, but it occurred to me looking at the final polls yesterday that Dean's "50-state Strategy" was looking a lot better than its critics thought it could a year ago.
Posted 7:29 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Laurel, Md.: In 2004, CNN started the evening by listing the nine battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, West Virginia, New Hampshire and a couple of others. At 11 p.m., when the polls had closed across the continental U.S., they had called the other 39 states, and none of the contentious ones. Will it be midnight before a battleground state gets called?
Robert G. Kaiser: I strongly doubt it.
Posted 7:14 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Pittsburgh Transplant: McCain's closing forays into Western Pennsylvania scared me. Having lived in the area, I know race is a strong underlying issue. I question the will of many (not all) to vote for a black man in that area. How do you analyze for that impact? Or, what type of voter was McCain targeting?
Robert G. Kaiser: You know, all the best polls have had Pennsylvania clearly in Obama's corner for weeks. Personally I have quite a lot of confidence in these findings. We'll know soon enough if that confidence was warranted.
Posted 7:14 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Southern Maryland: I'm a registered Republican woman, and today I cast my first vote ever for a Democrat. I simply could not vote for the "politics of fear" -- whether the messenger is John McCain (a man I respect) or Sarah Palin. (Can she focus on the issues vs. telling us what's wrong with everything?) I am proud of my vote, especially having just viewed the new Republican Party ad featuring the Rev. Wright. To my party leaders: We are done with the Rove-scare-tactics approach to politics. Real life is scary enough. You lost my vote because you focused on hate and fear instead of the real world. President Obama will lead us, not scare us.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for this.
Posted 7:12 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Temecula, Calif.: I am very nervous. I can't watch, but I have to watch. When can Obama supporters feel encouraged? What states, what times? How will we know when we'll have a long night?
Robert G. Kaiser: Soon, soon.
Posted 7:11 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Helena, Mont.: I know that anecdote is not data, but I'm working in Indiana and it's just astounding -- early voting in Franklin, Ind., (Johnson County) is off the chart. There were four-hour waits all last week (Monday through Saturday) and today. I never ask anyone who they are voting for because I never reveal that to anyone (not even close family) but this seems like such a good thing to me -- people wanting to vote and willing to stand in line for it.
Robert G. Kaiser: Many such anecdotes reaching us today. But don't trust anecdotes! Before the night is done we will be able to evaluate the turnout -- not definitively, but with quite a lot of confidence.
Posted 7:11 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Stanford, Calif.: I'm puzzled by how little I'm hearing about the possibility (or likelihood?) that with 20 percent to 30 percent of the electorate voting early, a huge number of votes won't be looked at till tomorrow, or maybe later. My understanding -- which could be way wrong -- is that typically, the mail-in votes aren't counted on Election Day.
I'm even less sure about how and when the early voting votes get counted (the voting usually doesn't take place at the normal precinct place). And then there are the vote-by-mail folks who bring their ballots to their precinct and drop them into a special box -- who knows when they get counted? I also wonder if this is a topic that doesn't get much publicity because people like to think their votes are part of the "deciding" votes when winners are declared on Election Night. Any thoughts from you or your experts on this?
washingtonpost.com: Discussion Transcript: Early Voting and Exit Polling (washingtonpost.com, Nov. 3)
Robert G. Kaiser: You are wrong; most absentee and early votes will be counted today.
Chris Hopkins, my distinguished producer, has given you a link here to a helpful discussion.
Posted 7:09 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Brisbane, Australia: What do you think of Obama's chances in North Carolina and Indiana? The way I see it, if Obama can secure those two states the race is over.
Robert G. Kaiser: Hello Australia! You have asked the right question, and we don't have to guess about it, we can have the actual numbers in the next half hour. I think. We decided to start this chat at 7 p.m. because of the importance of these two states. So stay tuned, or come back soon.
Posted 7:08 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Weston, Fla.: Thanks for doing this. Why wasn't control of the Supreme Court more of an issue is this campaign?
Robert G. Kaiser: I wish I knew. It seems to be a fact that most voters don't think of the Court as one of the stakes in a presidential campaign. I don't think we've ever seen a year in which it was a real factor.
Partly this reflects a fact about America that the political class doesn't often acknowledge: This is an apolitical culture. As political scientists keep telling us, a great many American voters are ignorant about many basic details of our government and how it works.
Posted 7:07 p.m., 11.4.2008
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New York: How scared are the pollsters tonight?
Robert G. Kaiser: Our pollster, Jon Cohen, seems remarkably calm. The best pollsters have (with reason) a strong sense that their numbers will be born out, as they have been for many years really. Yes, I'm sticking my neck out a little, but let's see what happens...
Posted 7:05 p.m., 11.4.2008
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: Regardless of the outcome of the results today, I am very, very glad to say goodbye to the era of Bush, Cheney, Rove and DeLay, and their abusive politics. What a disservice they did to our country. It really can't get worse than the past eight years, can it?
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for this. Regardless of whether others share your conclusions, there's no doubt about your larger historical judgment: we are ending an era in the United States. What comes next is going to be very different.
By the way, I was intrigued by the news that Rove himself predicted a big Obama victory over the weekend.
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Chicago: Will exit polling play a large role in tonight's reporting after the screw-ups in 2000?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good first question. Exit polling is enormously helpful, eventually. Through the night we will get more and more numbers, which will give us useful demographic information. But we have to be careful, which means slow for a while.
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Robert G. Kaiser: Good evening. We've done this often, but I think tonight is going to be special, and memorable. We have many hours of discussion ahead of us. I will do as much of it myself as I can, but there is a splendid supporting cast on hand to help me out and give me some breaks.
The Washington Post newsroom is buzzing in a way it only does once every four years. Dozens of journalists are deployed, and I can walk around and ask questions, so don't be shy about asking. Washingtonpost.com gives you a zillion ways to follow what's going on--take advantage!
Yes, we do have some exit polls, but we are not yet confident enough in what we have to write about them. I can say now only this: at this hour, we have not been amazed by anything we have seen. I will tell you a lot more as the evening proceeds, and as my colleague Jon Cohen, our director of polling, allows me to report actual numbers.
Please feel free to offer your own commentary as the night goes on. I will post readers' comments, often without any additional comment from me.
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Washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2008 Tuesday 5:44 PM EST
Obama, Berman Win on 'Monday Night'
BYLINE: Leonard Shapiro, Special to washingtonpost.com, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 1402 words
HIGHLIGHT: It seems unlikely that Chris Berman's halftime interview of the two major-party candidates on ESPN's "Monday Night Football" the night before the 2008 presidential election might actually impact on the final outcome.
It seems unlikely that Chris Berman's halftime interview of the two major-party candidates on ESPN's "Monday Night Football" the night before the 2008 presidential election might actually impact on the final outcome.
And yet, didn't you want to stand up and cheer when Barrack Obama, asked by Berman to name the one thing in sports he would like to change, smiled into the camera and fairly shouted, "I think it is about time we had playoffs in college football. I'm fed up with those computer rankings. Get eight teams -- the top eight teams -- right at the end. You got a playoff. Decide a national champion."
Now, before you totally scoff at the notion that Obama's loud-and-clear, no-spin position could win him a vote or two, let's go to the battleground state of Pennsylvania and have a little speculative fun.
Say you're a fan of Penn State's undefeated football team, currently No. 3 behind Alabama and Texas Tech in the BCS rankings. If those two teams win out and finish in the same order, the Nittany Lions and their octogenarian coach could actually get shut out of a shot at a national title, something that would not make you very happy.
So here comes Obama, saying in prime time--at halftime of a game featuring one of Pennsylvania's most popular sports teams--that he wants to see a college football playoff, one that this season almost certainly would have to include Penn State and Joe Paterno.
If you were living in Pennsylvania and still undecided on your choice for president, isn't it possible that you might recall Obama's call for a playoff just before you pulled the lever?
And let's take this one step further. Maybe a couple of hundred previously undecided Penn State football fans tuning in to the Steelers game actually based their vote for Obama on his college playoff stance (it sure beats flipping a coin, right?). And then, maybe he wins a critical battleground state that had been up for grabs by those same couple of hundred votes, making it impossible for McCain to win the electoral college.
Stranger things have happened.
For a prime example, go Google "Supreme Court and Al Gore."
By the way, John McCain's answer to the same Berman sports-related question was focused on his desire to "take action" on eliminating performance enhancing drugs.
Memo to the senator from Arizona: Congress already has tried to take action, even conducting highly publicized (and politicized) hearings starring the likes of Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Roger Clemens. Clearly, this ship has already sailed, leaving McCain (and Barry Bonds) in its wake.
But could you imagine an Obama administration throwing its weight behind a college football playoff following the inaugural parade in January? Whoa Nellie, Keith Jackson might even be tempted to come out of semi-retirement and go rumblin' stumblin' and bumblin' all the way to Capitol Hill to testify in favor of the idea.
And so, let's give full credit to Berman for a job well done on Monday night. Seriously, he asked some really smart, legitimate questions during his edited satellite chats with both candidates, taped earlier in the day Monday. We'll never know what stayed on the cutting room floor, but both Obama and McCain also were definitely good sports for participating ¿ even if the side benefit was a bit of very free national television exposure the night before the nation's voters headed to the polls.
Perhaps Monday night might also represent a turning point in Berman's own career. He actually looked the part of a legitimate news anchor and got at least one provocative, news-making answer out of the session. He didn't fool around with ridiculous nicknames or his signature "back, back, back, back" call, and he wasn't even featured as a pitchman in a single beer commercial during the telecast.
We've been saying for years that real anchors don't take money to shill for products in television commercials. So who knows? Maybe Berman has been paying attention and Monday night represented the start of a welcome trend. And now, if the so-called "Swami" gazes into his crystal ball, is it possible he could actually see a new gig as host of Meet The Press in his future?
Just kidding.
ESPN's wide-ranging, seemingly all-encompassing 90-minute NFL pregame show before the Washington Redskins succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers predictably used Tuesday's election as a clichéd backdrop virtually from start to finish.
Berman began at the top of the show by telling the audience "thank you for putting us on your ballots tonight." He ended with his introduction of game predictions from his analyst colleagues by wondering, "will it be a landslide or will it be a split decision?"
Still, in between, ESPN, with Berman as a multi-tasking and entertaining ringmaster, offered its viewers an almost overwhelming tidal wave of interviews, analysis, breaking news, pointed opinions, taped highlights from the previous day's games and discussion of various NFL hot topics, all presented by a seeming cast of thousands.
I particularly enjoyed the "C'mon Man" feature, focusing on all manner of football follies -- dropped passes, dumb penalties, big-time fumbles -- each foible followed by an exasperated "C'Mon Man" chorus from the panel of Berman, Cris Carter, Keyshawn Johnson, Tom Jackson and Mike Ditka.
I also had to laugh when Carter actually said on national television that former quarterback Jeff George, one of the great busts in league history, was "more talented" than Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger. Jeff George? The very same genius who once said during a mercifully brief stint with the Redskins that leadership at the quarterback position was overrated?
The good news is that Carter's fellow panelists vehemently and occasionally mockingly disagreed with Carter. Talk about a "C'mon Man" moment.
Redskins fans had to be delighted to hear ESPN analyst and Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young describe running back Clinton Portis and quarterback Jason Campbell as legitimate most valuable player candidates. Young also predicted that in Jim Zorn, Washington has "a coach who's going to be here for 10 years. ¿ The Redskins can go all the way this year." Of course, that was said before the 23-6 loss to the Steelers.
Former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer apparently is ESPN's new pregame bomb thrower, and we're not talking 60-yard practice throws during warmups.
In response to the report that former No. 1 draft choice Brady Quinn would be replacing Derek Anderson at quarterback for the struggling Cleveland Browns, Dilfer said "this shows so many layers of dysfunction on the Browns. You don't bench the quarterback on a bad football team. ¿ I played in Cleveland for a year and I was amazed by how much the front office is influenced by public opinion, one of the reasons this team makes these knee-jerk decisions."
So Trent, tell us what you really think.
Sadly, Dilfer was only on camera for a few minutes, but this is a guy who definitely needs more air time.
The Paralympics have never received much attention from the print or broadcast media save for the occasional uplifting story focusing on these inspirational and, yes, world-class disabled athletes.
But that's going to change starting Sunday on NBC and continuing the following week on the Universal Sports network, available to 30 million cable viewers.
NBC has produced a 90-minute special narrated by Bob Costas focusing on eight U.S. individual athletes and the players on the American wheelchair basketball team. They all competed in the recent Paralympics in Beijing following the 2008 Summer Games, including wheelchair racer Tatyana McFadden of Clarksville, Md.
I've seen some of the footage from NBC's Sunday afternoon special (starting at 2:30 p.m.) without Costas's voice-over. Trust me, with the Redskins on a bye week, it would behoove viewers to temporarily tune out the NFL and tune in to NBC for what should be a dramatic and more than occasionally emotional documentary.
Starting on Monday and running through Nov. 16, Universal cable will air four hours a night of previously taped competition from 7 to 11 p.m., a total of 28 hours. It's a fraction of the coverage devoted to the Olympics, but this is definitely a start, as well as sure-fire, must-see television.
Leonard Shapiro can be reached at Len.Shapiro@washingtonpost.com
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14 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2008 Tuesday 1:15 PM EST
The Chat House with Michael Wilbon: Pittsburgh Fans Invade Landover;
Sports News
BYLINE: Michael Wilbon, Washington Post Sports Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3712 words
HIGHLIGHT: Welcome to another edition of The Chat House, where Post columnist Michael Wilbon was online Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 1:15 p.m. ET to take your questions and comments about the Redskins-Steelers, the invasion of Pittsburgh fans at FedEx and to offer some thoughts about the election.
Welcome to another edition of The Chat House, where Post columnist Michael Wilbon was online Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 1:15 p.m. ET to take your questions and comments about the Redskins-Steelers, the invasion of Pittsburgh fans at FedEx and to offer some thoughts about the election.
A transcript follows.
Discussion Archive* Column Archive* Talking Points Videos
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washingtonpost.com: Michael will begin answering questions around 1:30 ET.
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Dodgeville, Wisc.: Michael,
You have always demonstrated reasoned opinions on matters of sports and race and even just race. Could we get you to comment on the following: African-American youth, when seeking same-race role models in media images, have had mostly athletes and artists to choose from. How powerful will the change be when that choice is widened to include the nation's chief executive? Thanks
Michael Wilbon: Hi everybody...good to be with you on this Election Day, sitting here in Washington, D.C. no less. We'll discuss the Redskins, the NFL, college football and to some degree the election...And since this is an issue close to my heart we'll start here...First, I don't know if my opinions are reasoned or not -- I'm glad they seem that way to you -- but they are mine, and I don't pretend to speak for anybody else...I wonder about what kids of all races, particularly black children, will see in that context in a black president of the U.S., should that happen tonight.
I think it will be just as great a shock to the system of black kids also. I HOPE this will divert their attention from sports and entertainment. I hope. But I don't know. Just as some conservatives have looked at Obama and in their own bigoted way called him "uppity," many black folks with no idea of what a Harvard education can afford see Obama as being very different from them, of living a life of privilege many of them have no capability or interest in pursuing.
Yes, there will be some immediate identification based on skin color. Of course there is. Every race of people on the face of the earth has that, and our extreme set of experiences as African-Americans often takes us in that direction to the greatest degree imaginable. Still, we're a diverse people. After the immediate identification based on race, then what? Will Obama represent and symbolize the dreams and goals of all black teenagers? No. Of most? Perhaps...Will they see themselves in him? I think so. But I also think it's going to take time. This is such a dramatic step in American history and I'm more interested in seeing the journey unfold than I am predicting what will happen.
But I do feel, with 100 percent certainty, that the image we have or ourselves will change if Obama is elected President tonight. And the greater range of images any people has of itself the better...If women have had, as Hilary Clinton says famously, a "glass ceiling" I don't know what it is black folks have had...a cast-iron ceiling?
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Maryland: Texas vs. Texas Tech -- best college game this year, yes or no?
Michael Wilbon: Yes, the best this year. I thought Tech would win but what a great game...I loved every second of it. I don't think Tech can go undefeated though, not with Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma and then the Big 12 championship game. If Tech DOES go undefeated, they should be No. 1 ahead of Penn State and Alabama, neither of whom has played as tough a schedule as Texas Tech...Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are two of the 10 best players in the country...
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Washington, D.C.: Michael, A while ago, you said you have interacted with both candidates at some point or another. From your conversations, what can you tell us about their sports fanaticism? Obama: pro-hoops or college? Cubs/White Sox? McCain: hoops, football? Bush clearly loves sports. Are we going to get four more years of a sports fan in the White House or are we going to get something else?
Michael Wilbon: I do know both men, and I've talked to both about sports. McCain is an absolute expert on boxing. Loves college football, pro football, has been seen at a few Suns games in his time...Obama (and I forgive him for this) hates the Cubs and is a South Sider all the way...Loves the White Sox...Bears, Bulls...HUGE March Madness fan...When my son was born in late March he called to congratulate me and we talked about our brackets...They are both fairly fanatical about sports, pro and college. McCain has been a guest on PTI and during a couple of flights with him to Arizona we talked about sports and his depth of knowledge was way impressive. When PTI first came on the air more than seven years ago, I have it on good authority that McCain, on more than one occasion, took the clicker and turned off C-SPAN and found PTI at 5:30 eastern...Pretty high compliment, don't you think?
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New York: It bothers me that you felt the need to take a shot at Redskins fans in your article this morning, calling us "Average at best". I'm one of the FANATIC Redskins fans who gather every Sunday at a packed Redskins bar on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. The bar is filled every Sunday with screaming Redskins fans and their babies in Portis jerseys.
This is hardly average. I don't see any Jaguars, Cardinals or Rams fans gathering every Sunday in an out of town location, packing a bar. The Steelers happen to be one of the most popular franchises in sports and if thousands of fans living in the DC area or making the trip want to buy up a bunch of tickets - that's their right. The stadium holds 90,000, there are always going to be tickets available one way or another. Redskins fans are more than Average, your comment was insulting and inaccurate.
Michael Wilbon: You don't have ANY idea of what you're talking about. Fans of all those teams pack bars in different cities all the time. How would you know? Would you ever go to those bars? No, you go to a Redskins bar, which is fine. So for starters, your premise is incredibly flawed. Second, just because you are a fanatic doesn't mean Redskins fans are any better than average. Steelers fans are, I think, the best in the NFL...After that, Cowboys fans, Bears fans, Giants fans. All those fans travel...Redskins fans bailed on their team last night and sold their tickets to Stub Hub or whatever service. You think Steelers fans would have done that? No. Broncos fans? Bills fans? No. I KNOW that doesn't happen to the same degree in those cities. You think Philly fans would have stood for that? No chance. Bears fans? No way. The Browns? Nope...Sorry, you're not going to get me to kiss up to Redskins fans after that sorry performance of support last night...At least 20,000 fans were in Steelers garb waving terrible towels...Tony says it was closer to 30,000...There was no home field advantage. It was a neutral field last night...Sorry.
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Arlington, Va.: I am embarrassed to be a Redskins fan today. Any season ticket holder who gave their tickets to Steelers fans should have them revoked immediately. There is no excuse for that, we don't deserve to be cheering for guys like Portis and Fletcher if that is how we show up to a Monday Night game.
Michael Wilbon: I'll publish a few of these so our Redskins friend of the last question can see them...
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Washington, D.C.: Michael,
As a Pistons fan, I tend to give Joe Dumars the benefit of the doubt. But why can't I shake this feeling that we just stepped over the edge of a cliff? Is the Billups-Iverson trade just freeing contract room for next year, or can they beat the likes of Boston and Cleveland with this lineup? Seems like we just sent a lot of toughness to Denver.
Michael Wilbon: It's like Kornheiser wrote this question. This is EXACTLY Ton's position. Are you giving up toughness when you get Allen Iverson? I don't think so, and I'm a BIG Chauncey Billups fan...Joe clearly didn't believe this lineup, as it has been constructed, could get past the conference final...He thinks Iverson is going to give the team a bump with his energy, with his scoring and recklessness and total disregard for his body...Tony, sitting across from me just said, "I love Allen Iverson. He has thrown himself around the court like nobody has...for forever...But that's just it. I don't think the end is very far off for him because of the way he's played..." This is going to be a fascinating trade to follow...Clearly, Joe Dumars took on risk here, but he's also going to have more than $25 million in cap space next summer to pursue either LeBron (the summer after that) or Joe Johnson, or D.Wade...Lots of free agents coming up in '09 and '10...
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New York: Would an Obama win help the NBA, in that we'd have our first basketball-first President? Can't you just see the President of the United States in courtside seats, with players falling into his lap and stuffy Secret Service guys not knowing what to do?
Michael Wilbon: That's a great question...I wonder when the last time that happened...Well, Clinton is from a state (Arkansas) with great tradition in both sports and is a HUGE NBA fan...Clinton often went to see Michael Jordan play and showed up at NBA games when you surely didn't expect it...But Obama is definitely a hoopster...first and foremost. I would think that the NBA should exploit this if possible.
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College Playoffs: So I figure Obama got your vote since he proclaimed the need to have playoffs vs the bowls....right!?!?
Michael Wilbon: He took MY position on the college playoff system! Stolen! But I can forgive that...
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Washington, D.C.: You hit the nail on the head. Would Cowboys, Giants, Bills or Bears fans stand for 20k of the other teams fans showing up? No. You know why? They play in reasonably sized stadiums. You take 15-20K seats out of Fed Ex and make it the same size as the Meadowlands, Soldier Field, etc., then you don't have this problem. Be interesting to see what happens in Dallas next year.
Michael Wilbon: I do agree with you on that. No stadium should be 90,000 plus...No stadium. That's 30,000 too many people. That's 30,000 (at least) who just roll out there to wear a jersey and get drunk. It's sad...I gave my tickets in the club level last night to two good friends, a man who played college football, and his wife...Wonderful people. They left before the game was over because of the drunkenness surrounding them, the language...thought the guy sitting behind them was going to vomit on them. Are you kidding me? If it wasn't for my wife, who grew up here and loves to go to Redskins games but never the night games, I would never have these tickets...I guess I'll have to take Matthew there when he gets to that age but it will be with great, great reluctance.
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New York City: Michael,
Great article on Byron today! Byron deserves another shot as a starter in this league. GO HERD!
washingtonpost.com: Quite a Homecoming (Post, Nov. 4)
Michael Wilbon: Thank you...I love Byron Leftwich...love him to death...And I couldn't be happier for him than I am today (and last night) after he won that game here at home.
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Waldorf, Md.: Am I wrong to be appalled that Tennessee booted Phil Fulmer out the door? I know it has been a bad season, but really, who are they going to get that will take the program up a notch?
Michael Wilbon: I think it's crazy...Nebraska did this when Frank Solich "slipped" to 9-3. How's it worked out for Nebraska since? It hasn't. Fulmer was 10-4 last year...Okay, he hasn't won a championship lately? How many coaches have? Who is Tennessee going to hire that will win more national championships than Fulmer?
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Not a Sports Question:..but then, this is hardly a typical day. I'm curious -- what is being in The Post newsroom like on a day such as this? My polling place this morning was electric. I would think the newsroom is even more so!
Michael Wilbon: I'm not in The Post newsroom; I'm in the little PTI studio where there's no difference from any other day. I have spent quite a few Presidential Election Days in The Post newsroom and there's nothing like it. Twice I drove down to the newsroom at night just to sit around the TV and watch the hustle and bustle (and take some slicers of the pizza delivered when I was young and stupid)...It is electric. My polling place was quiet, which was good...I was in line 10 minutes and done.
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Philadelphia: Mike, First off, how about some dap for the Phillies? Written off by most sports people and prognosticators (you included), they swept through 3 rounds of the playoffs with great pitching, an 11-3 playoff record, and the World Series crown.
Secondly, what do you make of some noted sportswriters (Peter Gammons and Buster Olney, among others) who suggest that this bad weather playoffs should mean a neutral location for the Series? That's a lot of hooey to me, and I wonder if they'd be singing that tune if there were rainouts in Boston, New York, or Chicago? Probably not.
Michael Wilbon: Yes, dap for the Phillies...And no, neutral site for the World Series is NOT a good idea. I hate it. But when the series is scheduled to end (Game 7, if necessary) next year Nov. 7, we can expect more of what we just got, unless it's Dodgers vs. Angels or some such...
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Washington, D.C.: In today's Internet age, with Stub Hub and the like, is it just plain impossible to fill the stands with the home team's crowd? Last night it was embarrassing to see so many Steelers fans at the 'Skins home game, especially with the 'Skins doing so well this year.
Michael Wilbon: Thanks for that...
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WIlliamsburg, Va.: Against an aggressive Steelers defense, did the Redskins playcalling leave you wondering...where are the slant passes and misdirection plays? As they were under Gibbs II, are the Redskins predictable on offense?
Michael Wilbon: No, I didn't wonder anything. I watched the Steelers climb inside the Redskins jerseys no matter what plays were called...Slant routes are tough to run when you have Steelers with hammers running through the middle on defense. The Redskins, if you want to point out one thing, have lost decisively to the two teams they played that have tons of physical toughness: Giants and Steelers. Both beat the Redskins and beat them up...That might be a concern. Still, 6-3 is pretty darn good. Only four teams in the NFL have fewer than three losses...The Redskins are in the next wave.
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Arlington, Va.: There were 30,000 Steelers fans in the stadium last night because of the Redskins' policies over the last decade. In the RFK days, the same, loyal fans came to every game for decades. Those RFK fans never would have given up their tickets, let alone sell them to Steelers fans.
That changed with the move to Fedex Field, and the change to Snyder management. He jacked up prices too high, he leapfrogs higher-payers ahead in the season ticket line, and he encourages fans to show up early to mitigate traffic woes.
The result: it's too expensive for fans to go to every game, so fans keep the division or warm-weather games and sell the others. At such high prices, it is often hard to find a buyer; the easiest buyers to find are other teams' fans who never get to see their teams.
Also, with so many young men tailgating for hours, the result is extremely obnoxious, hostile, drunken testosterone-filled behavior. I once took my 8-year old nephew to a game, but never again. It was awful. It's an awful stadium, and the Redskins manage it to soak as much money as possible out of it. And last night was the result.
Michael Wilbon: Thank you for that...
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Reston, Va.: Who do you like in the Cowboys/Redskins matchup? My money is on the Redskins only because the Cowboys seem to be self-destructing.
Michael Wilbon: Redskins...The Cowboys were overrated, now injured and overrated. The Redskins need to win that game at home...And their fans need to attend the game and not sell their tickets to Stub Hub...Wonder if they can manage that?
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Washington, D.C.: Michael,
What's your take on AI to Detroit? Can he run the point effectively enough? Will we see them turn Prince into a point forward? Let Stuckey run the show and bring Iverson in off of the bench?
Michael Wilbon: Iverson, more Stuckey, more Jason Maxiell...This is the way the Pistons are going now. I like it personally...But I'm not going to sit here and tell you I'm certain...
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Fort Washington, Md.: The last line of your column hurt my Cowboys sensibilities. After watching Leftwich last night I went to bed saying "Damn, if he was in Dallas we would at least be competitive offensively in Romo's absence" and then I read it in the paper this morning.
Michael Wilbon: The Cowboys didn't do a good enough job getting a backup QB...Leftwich was available to everybody. He might have to start this next game for the Steelers...
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Washington, D.C.:"It really gets a little tiresome hearing how great Redskins fans are...Really, they're a very average lot, at best." Get your flack vest on Michael. Me and many other expats living here will agree with you, but boy oh boy, are you going to catch grief from the locals for that one.
washingtonpost.com: Leftwich's Homecoming Goes All Right (Post, Nov. 4)
Michael Wilbon: You think I'm going to take cover and stay in the house? Sorry...
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San Francisco: Congrats to the Phillies; however, now I'm a little confused. My math skills aren't what they used to be, but does this mean it's now been 72 years since Philadelphia won a championship?
Michael Wilbon: I love that. thank you.
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Chicago: Come on Michael,
At least one person has written in about that great finish Northwestern had against Minnesota! 7 wins, you must be pretty happy, right?
Michael Wilbon: Ha ha! What a way to end the chat, which I have to do since Kornheiser is fretting over our production time...YEAH, Baby! I'm hoping we can beat Michigan or Illinois or both. AND I want to be in the Insight.com Bowl...I wonder if I can stump for that. New Year's Eve in Tempe, Arizona? That's my kind of year-ender...That new QB rushing for 217 yards is going to have me gushing soon...Okay, gotta run...must prepare for PTI and get ready for a long evening that I hope is historic. See you guys next week, live from Arizona where the Cardinals and 49ers will play Monday Night. Back to Monday, back to 1:15...See ya'.
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Washington, D.C.: I love your columns. Thanks for doing these chats.
On the Skins stadium situation, my dad has been a season ticket holder for more than 40 years. I grew up going to the games on his lap until I was big enough for my own seat. Sadly, when the Redskins cut off the Metro shuttles to the stadium, forcing fans to walk about a mile from train station to the stadium, it made it almost impossible for him to attend. It broke my heart to see how upset this made him.
Michael Wilbon: Thanks for that.
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Tampa: Who would you rather have as a backup quarterback: Johnson, Bollinger or Grossman?
Michael Wilbon: Leftwich. Write-in candidate.
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Alexandria, Va.: On the flip side, I never could get a seat at RFK. At FedEx a Skins fan can buy a ticket.
Michael Wilbon: Thanks for that.
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Columbia, S.C.: The real issue with the Fulmer or Bowden firing is the buyout. These are public employees (yes, they are) and they receive million dollar buyouts at a time where universities are getting cut - 15 percent of state dollars in my state. So, where is the outrage people? Sure, this may be donor or AD money -- but the team wouldn't exist without the university. Sickens me.
Michael Wilbon: Remember, the buy outs are often taken care of by boosters...In fact, buy-outs of coaches are being affected by boosters who lost money recently in the market crash...The fat cats aren't as quick this season to write a check for $500,000 or $1 million to get rid of a coach since a $20 million account might now be down to $8 million.
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Bowie, Md.: I can deal with the loss. It happens, teams play bad games and get beat. Campbell was due for an INT (or two). Whatever.
What I do have a problem with was how bad we got beat in the stands. As Skins fans, we like to think we're up there with Packers, Chiefs, Broncos, Pittsburgh, and those types of places as far as loyalty and passion. But the game last night was closer to a neutral site game than a Redskins home game. Every seat filled by a Pittsburgh fan was given to them by a Redskins fan. It's not like they just raided the box office.
I understand that the Steelers travel well, like the Red Sox, and that they have fans everywhere. I also understand that late games are tough for a variety of reasons. But seriously, if you could not make the game, you couldn't find a way to get a Redskins fan in your seat?
You know the majority of people were just looking to make a quick buck. I know you can get top dollar for your seat, but what's the point of having season tickets if you're not going to go to one of the biggest home games in years?
There are tons of excuses for why people would sell their seats to Steelers fans, but come on, would this have happened in Pittsburgh? In Kansas City? In Philly? In Green Bay? Give me a break. They would never let other fans OVERRUN their stadium. It's just a testament to what a terrible sports town this is when we can't even support the one team we do actually obsess over.
Michael Wilbon: Thanks.
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Washington, D.C.: Michael,
I know people are unhappy today about last night, but if you had said to me that the Redskins would be 6-3 at the bye week, I would have taken that in a heartbeat.
Michael Wilbon: Of course you would...And so should they. They should take a cue from you...
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2008 Tuesday 1:00 PM EST
Station Break: Election Overdose?;
Pop Culture and More
BYLINE: Paul Farhi, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3654 words
HIGHLIGHT: Feel as if you've been in stuck in the middle of a political science lecture for the past six months? Paul Farhi can't promise he won't chat about the election, the media that covers the election and the critics of the media that cover the election, but he'll try. Oh, heck, maybe he won't.
Feel as if you've been in stuck in the middle of a political science lecture for the past six months? Paul Farhi can't promise he won't chat about the election, the media that covers the election and the critics of the media that cover the election, but he'll try. Oh, heck, maybe he won't.
Farhi was online Tuesday, Nov. 4, at 1 p.m. ET for his weekly Station Break pop culture chat.
A transcript follows.
Farhi is a reporter in The Post's Style section, writing about media and popular culture. He's been watching TV and listening to the radio since "The Monkees" were in first run and Adam West was a star. Born in Brooklyn and raised in Los Angeles, Farhi had brief stints in the movie business (as an usher at the Picwood Theater), and in the auto industry (rental car lot guy) before devoting himself full-time to word processing. His car has 15 radio pre-sets and his cable system has 500 channels. He vows to use all of them for good instead of evil.
Subscribe to this discussion
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Paul Farhi: Greetings, all, and welcome to our Very Special Election Edition. I just want to say that I hope all of you get out to vote today and exercises your inalienable rights to stand in very long lines. I want to say "Vote!" because it is the obligatory thing to say, and as a proud advocate of democracy I certainly don't disagree. But when you think about it, as an individual matter, we should be advocating the exact opposite: Don't vote. Because if you don't vote, MY vote counts incrementally more, in the scheme of things. But, yeah, do that voting thing.
Moving on (as Colbert would say): My Esteemed Producer points out (and his very entertaining blog, www.roccifisch.com), a great Barbara Harrison moment. And I quote:
"News4 Washington's Barbara Harrison read this "teaser" going into a commercial break on one of their morning broadcasts last week: "How a cup'a joe [coffee] could change your bra size." (I noticed that co-anchor Joe Krebs did not read this news item.) This "fact" was based on a report from the British Journal of Cancer which said a study of 300 women revealed that drinking just three cups of coffee a day can affect the hormones and therefore, breast size (make them smaller).
. . . When Harrison read the entire story after the break, there was a little good-natured banter on the set between her and Joe and a few (nervous?) laughs (they laugh a lot on that show). It was obvious that that story was thrown in there as a light touch and not for serious journalistic purposes."
All the Babs haters on this channel will be gratified to learn this, I'm sure.
Let's go to the phones....
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Rockville, Md.: Paul, one of the oldest cliches when satirizing the early days of TV is to call something "the show that asks the question..." Do you know what was the original show that asked a question? It was not The Odd Couple; that came later, after the catch-phrase was already well known.
Paul Farhi: Well, I've never heard this catchphrase. Could it be an early game show thing? If so, I'll go with "21" or "Joker's Wild." But I will not, under any circumstances, say "Jeopardy!"
Do I win a big, big prize, Alex?
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Laurel, Md.: Paul, if you watched the SNL special last night, did you notice they never parodied Barack Obama in any sketch? In all the scenes that involved him, the jokes were about the other characters.
Paul Farhi: Actually, I don't recall that SNL has made fun of Obama at all. Ever. I can't think of one really cutting thing they've done about him. All of SNL's jokes have been aimed at McCain and Palin, and before that, Hillary. But Obama? Pfft!
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Silver Spring, Md.:3 1/2 hours to vote at the NOAA building today in downtown Silver Spring. Madness.
Paul Farhi: Wow! That's awful. I voted at my usual place. Been going there about 18 years, I figure. And I've never seen it so crowded. Line out the door and down the block--at 10:15 a.m., when the rush hour's supposed to be over. Lots of pro-Obama chatter in line.
Based on this highly scientific observation, I am predicting that Obama will carry Maryland. Bold prediction, sure, but that's how I roll.
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Nosy Parker: I haven't in recent times been so disgusted as I was last night by repeated venomous comments from a few hateful individuals who posted messages online in the wake of the death of Barack Obama's grandmother (who had played a major role in his upbringing and for whom he took a recent break from campaigning in order to visit one last time).
First of all, what is wrong with these people? And, based on your professional experience, what percentage of the American population comprises this group of wingnuts? Do you think they've always existed in such numbers, or that widespread access to the Internet has changed American popular culture for the worse (as well as, at other times, the better)?
Paul Farhi: No disrespect, but you just discovered this? Have you ever read, say, the posted comments under any politics story? If the internet has revealed anything, it is that the world is filled with idiots. Not just idiots you disagree with, but idiot idiots who hide behind the anonymity of screen names to post bilge for others to see.
And you know what? Bring 'em on. Let's see what the jerks and dopes and morons have to say. They deserve their free speech just as much as the thoughtful people do. And they're easily ignored. Good speech will always triumph over lousy speech in the ol' marketplace of ideas.
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Atlanta, Ga.: Can you tell Chuck Todd to shave his goatee? I mean, he's an adult, right?
Paul Farhi: Hey, what's wrong with goatees? (Signed, actual adult with goatee).
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washingtonpost.com: Paul Farhi (Thumbnail size photo)
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SNL parodying Obama: I suspect Obama is tough to make fun of, just because he's so bland (I was going to say "vanilla" or "white bread," but thought better of it).
However, SNL did parody Campbell Brown and other CNN reporters for being "in the tank" for Obama, which is the next best thing to parodying the man himself.
Paul Farhi: That's one of the striking and often overlooked things about Obama, isn't it? I mean, other than his patented, scripted Soaring Rhetoric speeches, he's really kind of a dull, cautious speaker. Nothing particularly wrong with that, of course, but he wasn't terribly inspiring during, say, the debates.
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washingtonpost.com: Paul Farhi (Thumbnail size photo)
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Scopes, Tex.: Is Alex Trebek really Art Fleming in disguise?
Paul Farhi: I grew up watching Art Fleming, sir. And Alex Trebek is no Art Fleming. Art was jovial and fun. He didn't act like he knew all the questions/answers like Trebek. He didn't have that slightly sneering tone that Trebek adopts when a contestant blows an easy one. Oh, no, Trebek is no Fleming.
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Columbus, Ohio: ESPN interviewed Obama and John McCain last night, asking them the same question -- "if you're elected, what would be the one change they'd like to bring to the sports?"
Obama's choice is a playoffs system to college football, while McCain mentioned a better sytem to battle doping.
Do you think if there is any underlying political motivation behind their answers?
Paul Farhi: Well, I figure everything has an underlying political motivation. But I tried parsing those answers and couldn't come up with what each guy was trying to sell (your thoughts appreciated). And by the way, I'm not sure the question was phrased quite like that...
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washingtonpost.com: Jeopardy: The Art Fleming Years
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"Good speech will always triumph over lousy speech in the ol' marketplace of ideas. ": Well said, sir. And may I add that the success of this very chat further reinforces the validity of your statement.
Paul Farhi: Well, I'm not sure this is exactly what the Framers had in mind with that whole First Amendment business, but the Station Break Nation thanks you.
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Beverly Hills, Calif.: Why is Cloris Leachman dancing on a television show?
Paul Farhi: You got a problem with that? I think that's the coolest thing ever on "Dancing with Your Stars" (admittedly, not a whole to choose from in that category).
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Baltimore, Md.: Big radio news up here in Baltimore, as WHFS was changed to WJZ, and its format was changed from talk to all-sports, and in the process, Kirk McEwen and Mark Ondayko lost their shift as the morning show hosts, just two years after they left their perch at 98 Rock. Now, no station has the call letters WHFS for the first time in about 40 years -- THANKS CBS! -- and two talented broadcasters with homes and families and young children are suddenly out of a job -- THANKS CBS!
Paul Farhi: A little beyond our purview, but this is just one teeny little indication of the turmoil in the radio business. Yes, every business is in turmoil, but the thing about the media business is, everyone notices its turmoil. But: Kirk and Mark are very talented guys; they'll land somewhere. I'm not feeling too sad about 'em.
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M Factor: How come when I read the title to your chat that song from M Factor runs through my head with the title of your chat in place of the word "music." Talk about...pop culture, talk about...pop culture. London, New York, Paris, Munich everybody talk about...pop culture. Now that the pop culture Solid Gold dancers are gone, maybe you should consider this your theme song?
Paul Farhi: Great idea! And the Solid Gold dancers may be gone (where have you gone, Denny Terio?), but....yes!...the Station Break Dancers are back! Won't you put your hands together and welcome them!!
[Station Break Dancers appear onstage wearing skimpy red, white and blue outfits, with thumping bass line blasting, and confetti guns blowing. Balloon drop in 3...2...1...]
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What's wrong with goatees?: You should ask the goatee.
Paul Farhi: If I may, could I modify the joke?
Set-up: What's wrong with goatees?
Punchline: You should ask the goatER.
Thank you.
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Bring back the paper ballot: At my voting arena, an elderly lady was stymied by the voting wheel. She didn't have the motor control to make it stop at her candidate. The workers wouldn't help her because they weren't allowed to cast her vote, they could only tell her how the infernal machine worked. So the wheel spun back and forth and back and forth ...
Paul Farhi: As a Middle-Aged American, I am increasingly sensitive to the little bitty declines in my motor functions, so I guess I'm sympathetic to the elderly lady. But it shows you the enormous difficulty of designing election systems that respect the vast differentials in physical capabilities and/or technological familiarity. The problem, I think, can be defined in two words: Butterfly ballots.
Didn't those rather simple things screw up an election pretty well?
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College Park, Md.: I'm 20 years old, a college student, a guy, and I'm physically attracted to this Cloris Leachman woman! She's hot! Is this okay?
washingtonpost.com: Cloris Leachman on Dancing With the Stars ( ABC, via Google)
Paul Farhi: I will reluctantly allow it, but I'd feel better if your attraction was based on the Cloris of "The Mary Tyler Moore Show" era or of "The Last Picture Show" era.
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Burbank, Calif.: Joaquin Phoenix has announced that he is "retiring" from making movies and he's going to try and make it as a musician!
Questions: Where will Joaquin Phoenix be in five years, and how much money does he have in the bank?
Paul Farhi: In five years, after the failure of his musical career, he will be back making movies. In fact, make that two years.
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Campaign Junkie: Paul, please tell me...when does C-Span crank up "Road to the White House 2012"? I want to see Bobby Jindal scarfing a pork chop on a stick at the Iowa State Fair. I want to check out John Deere tractors at a dealership with John Thune. I want to see Mitt Romney slapping people on the back at a diner in New Hampshire. I'm already going through withdrawal! Help me, man! HAHAHAHA...
Paul Farhi: You don't have to wait long. The next campaign officially starts in about 12 hours.
And curious: If you're assuming an Obama victory, you don't think you'll see Sarah Palin in 2012, too?
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washingtonpost.com: Cloris Leachman as Phyllis Lindstrom ( YouTube)
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Baltimore, Md.: Re venomous online comments: I once asked Eugene Robinson in an online what sort of e-mail he receives and he said much of it was unbelievable and unprintable. Part of me thinks that people should somehow be forced to sign their own, real names to their comments online. (For what it's worth, my Post comments ID is my first and middle initials and my last name.) Another part of me reckons that at least the nutjobs and haters have a place to vent.
Paul Farhi: Yes, I think signing real names would utterly transform the discourse. People say things anonymously that they'd never say if their names were attached. As is, the internet enables a kind of giant prank phone call....
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Me Again:"And curious: If you're assuming an Obama victory, you don't think you'll see Sarah Palin in 2012, too?"
You betcha (wink)!
Paul Farhi: Thought so.
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Bakersfield, Calif.: Hi from the Charles Schulz Estate! We've decided, like the crazy Lynn Johnston, to go back and "re-tell" all of the "Peanuts" strips, starting at the very beginning in the 1950s! We'll be "updating" and "re-doing" all of the dialogues in all of the "Classic Peanuts" comic strips that generations have loved and hated for all of these years! Isn't that exciting? We might integrate "Peanuts" with "For Better or For Worse," and maybe have Linus date Elizabeth for a while, and have Schroeder date April for a while! And Snoopy and Farley will strike up a "special dog friendship" for a while! This will be fun, and it will totally revolutionize the comics! And maybe we'll get R. Crumb to draw some of the "re-done" strips! All the fun starts in December!
Paul Farhi: Wow, comic mash-ups! That would be kinda cool, actually. Let's see: How about B.C meets Beatle Bailey? B.C. pulls out his club; Beetle faces him down in a tank.
Okay, maybe not...
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Hi! This year for Christmas, I'm getting everyone in my family, including my parents, "Influence," the new book by Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen! And I'm buying a copy for myself! It will greatly add to my growing Olsen Twins collection that has taken over the garage! We have all of their movies, too!
Paul Farhi: Taken over your garage? What are you going to do with all the American Girl dolls you have stored there?
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'Actually, I don't recall that SNL has made fun of Obama at all. Ever.': That's because, perceived liberal bias aside, there's really nothing to ridicule about Obama -- as opposed to Bush, who's legacy will be that he was the most ridicule-ready president in the history of the republic.
Paul Farhi: Not really true, of course. And even if true, that would be a sad day for comedy, and for America. ALL people in power (or who pretend to it) should be made fun of. It's the American Way, not, say, the Uzbeki Way (although maybe in Uzbekhastan they have a great tradition of political satire, I dunno).
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Washington, D.C.: Voting wheel?
Paul Farhi: Yeah, I kinda wondered about that, too, but worried that I would be betraying my own technological ignorance. What IS a voting wheel?
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Malibu, Calif.: Why do Sarah Silverman and Frank Caliendo have television sketch/sitcomish shows? Sarah's beautiful, but her show is terrible. Frank's funny with standup, but his show is terrible. Sarah should be doing movies -- she can act pretty well and she lights up the screen -- and Frank should do standup and a traditional sitcom. But their current shows? Sorry.
Paul Farhi: Well, hold on there, pardner (that was my George W. Bush imitation; did you like it?). I concede that Caliendo's show is not hilarious; but he is a great impersonater and, in theory, should have been able to carry a sketch-comedy show built around him. As for Sarah, her show is really rather astonishing. It is Seinfeldian in the sense that it is very much a "quirky" and unusual take on the traditional sitcom. I'm not sure it's "good," but it's amazing to watch. She goes off in a dozen unexpected directions.
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SNL and Obama: I don't know whether you would count this as making fun of him, but in one of the last two debate skits, Fred Armisen as Obama confessed that William Ayers was his best friend and closest advisor, and made a couple of other similarly devastating admissions (the joke being that he could say anything at that point and it wouldn't matter).
Paul Farhi: Okay. I didn't remember those, but, yep, that counts. Obama has officially been made fun of. More please.
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Rockville, Md.: I'm voting for McGovern today!
Paul Farhi: Hahaha. Thanks, Ms. 1972...
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Laurel, Md.:
I'm sure they'll find a home, but their act has never been the same since they lost Lopez to cancer.
Paul Farhi: Roger that. I met Lopez several months before he died. He really added a lot to that show--a kind of calm, adult, intelligent sensibility, which Mark and Kirk played off very well. RIP.
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Re: Palin: I'd really like to see Palin run in 2012. The Republican primary debates will be SO much more watchable.
Paul Farhi: She did fantastically huge numbers in her debate with Biden, so clearly the public agrees with you.
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Oakton, Va.: Paul,
My voting saga today:
8:00 Showed up 8:01 Got in line 8:02 Voted and handed ballot to be scanned in 8:03 got in car and drove to work.
So much for long lines in Virginia
Paul Farhi: Hard to say, really. Every precinct is so different. Depends on the turnout (obviously), the number of voting machines, and, I guess, the crowd management skills of the poll workers. My people in Rockville were awesome. They had the drill nailed.
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Arlington, Va.: Can we get Cloris her own show? She absolutely killed at the roast for Bob Saget and she was the best thing on DWTS.
Plus she was in Beerfest.
Paul Farhi: I somehow missed "Beerfest," though I like beer and fests, but I did see her on the Saget roast. Wow--did she bring da noise and da funk. Kind of amazing, and just a little embarrasing, too. Dignity, woman, dignity!
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'Actually, I don't recall that SNL has made fun of Obama at all. Ever.': There are jokes about Obama in SNL, but they tend to be pretty subtle. Did you listen to Fred Armisen's lines in the primary recap which showed Obama as half a face, Hilary's as the other half, and the two voices united only sometimes? It captured very well the fact that we think of Obama as sweetness, but he's driven to win like any other candidate. The Daily Show has been much stronger in its Obama humor with the mythic hero and messiah jokes. Anyway, agreed we need to mock our leadership and people will just have to listen harder for the jokes in Obama '08
Paul Farhi: Well, if he wins, you can guaran-damn-tee that the jokes are coming. Tons upon tons. Nobody becomes prez without becoming Joke Target No. 1.
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eSlate with voting wheel: eSlate With Voting Wheel
Paul Farhi: Mystery solved.
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Fleming, Wisc.: With the new Ronco "Voting Wheel" -- TM -- Art Fleming personally visits your voting precinct and, in the middle of the room, spins a huge wheel for every voter, and they get five tries to get to the candidate they want to vote for! If their candidate does not come up, they lose! And the vote goes to the Libertarian candidate! The Ronco "Voting Wheel"--TM--system was adopted in 19 midwestern states via laws enacted by drunken state legislators! Now everyone can have tons of fun voting with the new Ronco "Voting Wheel!" But even if your candidate loses, you still leave with a wonderful parting gift of the Ronco Fly Fishing Master Rod and Reel and two containers of the patented world-famous Ronco Car Wax Treatment! Everyone loves to play "Voting Wheel!!"
Paul Farhi: Are you finished?
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Washington, D.C.: Did anybody see SNL Saturday night during Ben Affleck's spoof of Keith Olbermann. There was a great deal of nervous laughter at it in the audience for whatever reason, maybe many have no idea who Olbermann is, but it was absolutely hilarious and really brought out Olbermann's tendency to oh, I don't know, make every issue overblown with his self importance. Anyway, if you haven't seen it, do check it out.
Paul Farhi: Well, see, I thought that fell short. Went on too long. And Affleck didn't really capture Olbermann's blowhardery, I thought. Imagine if that thing was a little better writeen and had been done by Darrell Hammond. Would have killed.
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Washington, D.C.: Why oh why do networks put the score for sporting events in type that is too small to read? Not eveyone has a 40-inch TV screen.
Paul Farhi: Maybe you need to stand closer to the set?
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Paul Farhi: Well, I think I'll wrap 'er up here, folks, to give you even more time to go out and stand in line. But let's do this again next week, when we can be the first to discuss the failed Obama or McCain Administration. Until then...regards to all. --Paul.
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washingtonpost.com: Affleck As Olbermann/ ( NBC)
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LOAD-DATE: November 5, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza, Washingtonpost.com Political Blogger, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4389 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Chris Cillizza, washingtonpost.com political blogger, was online live Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
Read the latest post from The Fix or follow him on Twitter.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Chris Cillizza: HAPPY ELECTION DAY!
It's amazing for me -- after two years -- for the big day to finally be here.
Thanks to everyone who checked out The Fix or tuned into these chats; as I hope you can tell, The Fix is a labor of love for me.
Lots of questions in the queue so I will try to keep my answers relatively short so I can get to as many as possible over the next hour.
And remember: it's just 1,463 days between now and the 2012 presidential election!
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New York: Okay Chris ... deep breaths ... you can get through this. You can sleep tomorrow ... well maybe not tomorrow, we'll all want our wednesday morning analysis -- but Thursday is all yours. Here's a wonky question that is right up The Fix's alley: It never has happened before, but what are the odds that one of the candidates strips off one of the electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska that are approtioned via congressional district, rather than winner-take-all? My guess is if it happens, it is Obama peeling off the Nebraska district that abuts the currently very blue state of Iowa. What do you think?
washingtonpost.com: The Fix's Final Electoral Map (washingtonpost.com, Nov. 3)
Chris Cillizza: This is a big two days for me...the election today and then tomorrow my wife's field hockey team plays in their conference semifinal game. So, not a lot of sleep but a lot of excitement.
I think there is a real chance that Obama carries Nebraska's 2nd district tonight -- peeling away an electoral vote in a very Republican state. A private poll last week showed Obama ahead in that district and a win is a real possibility.
I don't think McCain can answer with a win of his own in Maine's 2nd. It is the more conservative-minded of the two Mained congressional seats but the northeast has moved strongly in the direction of Democrats over the past few elections and my guess is that trend will continue tonight.
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Ohio: Chris, thanks for your always thoughtful, knowledgeable commentary. What time do you think we'll start to see meaningful returns tonight? I'd hate to miss some important states (like mine) being called. Will there be good information shortly after the polls close, or will it take longer for the dust to settle? Two hours? Five?
washingtonpost.com: Pass the time tonight with Post Associate Editor Robert G. Kaiser (and guests) or Metro columnist Marc Fisher (washingtonpost.com, 7 p.m. ET tonight)
Chris Cillizza: Thanks, Ohio.
My guess is we will start having a real sense of where thing stands around 10 pm. Some states -- Connecticut, Utah, Illinois to name just a few -- will be called by the television networks as soon as the polls close. Others -- Ohio, North Carolina, Florida -- will likely take some more time as they are almost certain to play host to a closer race between McCain and Obama.
I put together an hour-by-hour viewer's guide for tonight's vote; it will go up on The Fix in the early pm today so make sure to check it out.
A side note: Is there a better invention in the last five years than the "genius" button on Itunes? So cool.
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Indianapolis: I have on my JFK, Win with Taft, Bryan/Kern and MacArthur for America buttons in honor of Election Day! The report from Indianapolis (I have a asked a bunch of my co-workers) is that there are long lines in the city. The townships are doing brisk business too (although not quite as heavy). The only exception, earlier today, was in Southport (a far south part of Indianapolis) where it wasn't too busy. Good for Obama? It's too soon to tell.
washingtonpost.com: Don't forget to share your voting experiences with other readers or report problems at the polls with our Voting Monitor.
Chris Cillizza: Thanks for this Indianapolis....folks, you can check out the links above to share your election day experiences with us.
We want to hear from you!
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Roseland, N.J.: FYI, even here in New Jersey, where there's no doubt who's going to win the electoral votes -- polls are mobbed. Bring a Thermos and an iPod, folks! Which leads me to this comment: In my opinion, in a lot of these critical battle ground states, the official poll closing times are not going to be the actual poll closing times. If the lines into the polling places are as bad as we think, there are going to be courts that say "keep 'em open another hour." So even if it is a landslide, it won't be called officially as early as we think.
Chris Cillizza: This is a good -- and important -- point.
The general rule of thumb is that if you are in line when the polls officially close in your state, you will usually be allowed to vote.
My guess is that with such heavy turnout being predicted across the country, Roseland is right -- it might be a little late before we know even if one or the other candidate scores a major win.
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Arlington, Va.: Is it possible that all the dire predictions of long lines could discourage people from going out? The news I have been hearing is that lines were long when polls opened but that they moved pretty quickly, so lots of places were line-free. I voted early before that all got going in earnest, so it only took me about 10 minutes a couple of weeks ago.
washingtonpost.com: Lines Grow For Early Morning Voters (washingtonpost.com, Nov. 4)
Chris Cillizza: There is no question in my mind that turnout will set a record today.
But, election officials have know for a LONG time that interest in this race is the highest in modern history and maybe (just maybe) they have acted and prepared accordingly.
Thanks for this report Arlington.
Any other folks had experiences (good or bad) at their polling places this morning?
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Valdosta, Ga.: Chris - thanks for taking my question. How big does the African American turnout have to be for Martin to have a chance in my state? For Obama to have a chance? Just curious what I should be looking for.
Chris Cillizza: A slew of Senate and House questions....LOVE it! Keep 'em coming.
Early vote in Georgia was VERY encouraging for Democrats. African American voters comprised 35 percent of all early ballots cast -- a stunningly high number that if it holds could give Obama a huge upset in the Peach State and carry Martin into the Senate as well.
If blacks wind up making up 25 percent of voters in Georgia, Chambliss is likely to win or at least hold the lead going into the Dec. 2 runoff. If the black percentage approaches 30 (or even higher) than all bets are off.
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Rochester, N.Y.: Quick, who wins New York's 26th and 29th congressional districts?
Chris Cillizza: Thanks, Rochester -- the home of John F. Harris!
I wish I knew what was going to happen in either of these districts.
Both are Democratic takeover opportunities with the 26th perhaps slightly more likely because it is an open seats.
Rep. Randy Kuhl (R), the member from the 29th, is a notorious underperformer, however, and can't afford to let that happen again today.
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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Chris. Out here in Minnesota we anxiously are awaiting your final prediction on the Franken/Coleman and Bachmann/Tinklenberg races. What do you think? My sense is that Coleman is going to pull it out, but barely. Same with Bachmann. Hope I'm wrong about both.
Chris Cillizza: Hello St. Paul. A GREAT city.
Holy cow what a Senate race you guys have in the state.
I think this may well be the closest Senate race in the country. Both sides believe they are going to win -- albeit narrowly.
The x-factor is Dean Barkley, the independent candidate. If he gets in the low double digits, Coleman may well eke it out. If he gets closer to 20, it could be Sen. Franken.
In the 6th, the question is whether Bachmann has done enough to rehabilitate her image in the wake of her "anti-American" comments on "Hardball" a few weeks ago.
She is clearly damaged politically but benefits from sitting in a district that is strongly conservative.
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Alexandria, Va.: I woke up at 5 a.m., was at my polling place at 5:45 a.m., and was told at approximately 6:45 a.m. that I needed a federal ID to vote that and my Virginia-issued driver's license was not enough. Thankfully another poll worker corrected the poll person, and I was able to cast my vote. I had to share this. Pay attention, folks, and don't step out of line for any reason.
Chris Cillizza: Agree. Know your rights. Voting=incredible privilege. Don't give it up.
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Washington: Well, the traffic jam near my normal polling place (Wisconsin and Calvert streets) was horrible this morning as I drove to work. The lines looked longer than normal but not really bad. I voted abesntee last week -- I genuinely expected to be out of town today -- and it took an hour and 45 minutes.
Chris Cillizza: More reporting from the field.
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New York: Wouldn't Chambliss be a prohibitive favorite in a run off, as black turnout would have to diminish considerably with Obama not on the ballot?
Chris Cillizza: I am not sure he would be a "prohibitive" favorite but he clearly would have to be considered the frontrunner for just the reason you cite, New York.
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Alexandria, Va.: You asked for voting experiences -- my husband went at 6 a.m. this morning, hoping to beat the rush. It was packed, and he stood in line for two hours. I waited until 10 a.m. and was in and out in 15 minutes.
Chris Cillizza: Power to late risers!
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Silver Spring, Md.: Chris, thanks for your appropriately named blog -- against my better judgment about how to use my time, I have become addicted to election news. Okay, my question: I just waited 90 minutes to vote in reliably blue Maryland. Do you think there is any chance that the polls have become outdated by not adequately assessing or querying who will vote, and the outcome will be a landslide for the Democrats? That is, McConnell, Chambliss and maybe Wicker (not to mention more House Republicans) will get swept away?
Chris Cillizza: There is always the possibility that polling is missing a significant swath of voters -- particularly in an election like this one where Obama has put such a huge amount of emphasis (and money) on finding and registering new voters.
The good thing about elections is that all -- or at least most -- will be known tonight or early tomorrow am.
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Webster Groves, Mo.: How does it look for Dole in North Carolina? I was absolutely appalled by her "Godless" ad!
Chris Cillizza: Webster Groves! Love it. Mrs. Fix is a St. Louis native. She's a Vivette!
I think Dole is done for -- barring some sort of miraculous comeback today. Tracking polls for both parties over the weekend suggested that her "Godless" ad -- attacking state Sen. Kay Hagan's religious beliefs -- backfired, putting Dole even further behind the Democrat.
It's been a VERY rough four years for Dole. She chaired the Senate campaign arm in 2006 when Democrats retook control of the chamber and now she appears to be headed for defeat in her own right today.
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Charlotte, N.C.: Chris, I was astounded to read in yesterday's Charlotte Observer that 54 percent of newly registered voters in North Carolina had voted early. What a number, considering that you are luck to get 40 percent of new voters to vote a all.
washingtonpost.com: Are newly registered really going to vote? (Charlotte Observer, Nov. 3)
Chris Cillizza: It is a remarkable number and a testament to the excitement and interest in this campaign.
Will the early vote be enough to hand Obama an upset win in NC? I am still somewhat skeptical although if ever North Carolina could be won by a Democrat for president, Obama is the candidate and this is the year.
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Ashburn, Va.: Per your request on voting experiences this morning, I arrived at 5:55 a.m. to vote, and there were about 200 or 250 people in front of me. It took an hour, and when I left, I would estimate there were 350 in line to vote. However, several of my co-workers who waited until 9 a.m. or 10 a.m. to vote said the lines were very short, if there was one at all.
Chris Cillizza: Holy cow!
5:55 am? The Fix has NEVER been up that early. Point of pride.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. FiveThirtyEight.com seems to think it's likely the Dems won't get 60 seats in the Senate; they'll miss by one, maybe two. Which two or three moderate Republicans will be under the most electoral pressure to prove they are really moderates on cloture votes? Is that list the same as the list of the two or three moderate Republicans most likely to vote for cloture because that's how they really want to vote (i.e., not for electoral reasons)?
washingtonpost.com: Final Senate Projections (FiveThirtyEight.com, Nov. 4)
Chris Cillizza: Nate Silver and the other guys at 538 are GREAT and have been a revelation in this election.
I, too, in my Crystal Ball predictions for the Post over the weekend, predicted that Democrats would come up a single vote short of 60.
If that scenario does come to pass, people like Sens. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), Olympia Snowe (R-Me.) and Susan Collins (R-Me.) will get A LOT more attention starting in January.
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Minneapolis: My husband and I voted at 7 a.m. in our upscale liberal neighborhood, and the lines were very long. Just for fun, I voted for Franken and the guy I married voted for the Independence Party candidate, Barkley. He was annoyed with me because he knows I wasn't 100 percent in love with Franken, and he thinks I betrayed my values.
Chris Cillizza: We now have an updated Minnesota Senate race vote count:
Franken 1
Barkley 1
Coleman 0
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Arlington, Va.: I was in line at 5:55 a.m. and voted at about 7 a.m. The line was very long, but was shorter when I left. It seemed like a much shorter wait, because I struck up conversations with others in line. There was one man walking up and down the line saying he was representing "Voters Rights" or something and was available to assist anyone with questions/problems. I didn't get a chance to ask him, but I wondered whether he was from the government, a nonprofit, or another kind of organization.
Chris Cillizza: Love it. So great everyone is up and at 'em this morning. But, seriously, 5:55 am? Is it even light out then?
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Rockville, Md.: In North Bethesda I and my wife got there at 6:40 a.m. and voted at 7:40 a.m. My guess was the line moved twice as fast as in the most recent election (four years ago).
Chris Cillizza: More fodder....
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Fresno, Calif.: No line in my precinct at 7:30 a.m. There was a 15-minute line in the adjacent precinct.
Chris Cillizza: A turnout report from the left coast!
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Washington: I'm a native Californian -- what's your latest line on Proposition 8 and any of the other ballot initiatives in California?
Chris Cillizza: Great question.
For those of you who don't know, Prop. 8 would add a constitutional amendment to the California constitution banning same sex marriage in the state.
Pro and anti 8 forces have spent tens (maybe even hundreds) of millions on their efforts and cultural warriors on both sides of the political spectrum see it as a seminal moment in the gay marriage debate.
A Field Poll last week showed 49 percent opposed to the measure and 44 percent supporting it -- results that suggest the vote today could go either way.
On other thing to keep an eye on in California: Prop. 11. It would establish an independent committee to draw the districts lines in the state Assembly and Senate following the decennial census. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been Prop. 11's most ardent backer.
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Missouri: Care to go out on a limb and call the Missouri's 9th District? Republican former Rep. Hulshof is the sacrifical lamb against soon-to-be Gov. Nixon. Two newcomers battling for the 9th District.
Chris Cillizza: I;ll give it a shot.
While Obama's focus on Columbia (home to the University of Missouri) should help state Rep. Judy Baker (D), my guess is that former state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) pulls out the win.
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Cleveland: I live in blue Cuyahoga County, Ohio, and voting went well this morning (that is, as well as usual). The line was out the door as the polling location opened, but diminished within an hour. Took me about 50 minutes from start to finish. Unscientific observation: I live in a diverse precinct, but I noticed many more African Americans at the polls than in past years -- and, thankfully, many more volunteers at the polling location controlling traffic and answering questions. It's so heartening to see the big turnout and to see people excited about voting!
Chris Cillizza: Thanks for the report from one of the central battlegrounds in today's election.
_______________________
2016: Enough about today...who do you think gets the Democratic nod: Secretary Emanuel, Sen. Napolitano; Vice President Kaine or Gov. McCaskill? Oh,and big congrats on your great news!
Chris Cillizza: LOVE it.
Even I can't look that forward into the future.
Here's what I will offer though. If the polls are right and Barack Obama is elected president today, here's a quick guesstimate on the 2012 GOP field:
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Former House Speaker Newt Ginchrich
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford
Who am I missing?
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Dixville Notch: Chris, as silly as it may seem, is the fact that Dixville Notch, N.H., voted overwhelmingly for Obama (first time since 1968 that they voted for a Democrat) a significant "early return?"
washingtonpost.com: Obama wins in earliest vote in tiny New Hampshire town (AP, Nov. 4)
Chris Cillizza: Not really. But I will tell you that Dixville Notch is home to the summer vacation hotel of the Fix's childhood: The Balsams.
Seriously, it's the greatest place in the world.
Check it out: http://www.thebalsams.com/
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Speaking of Propositions...: We have one here in Wisconsin that would provide universal health care, funded by higher taxes on junk purchases (like tobacco and fast food).
Chris Cillizza: Fascinating...
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Pittsburgh: Dude, it was Steelers 23, Redskins 6. Take the rest of the day off.
Chris Cillizza: The Fix grew up a Giants fan -- during the Phil Simms, Phil McConkey and the original LT (Lawrence Taylor) days.
Despite living in Washington for the last decade, we still don't bleed burgundy and/or gold.
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Anonymous: Is there any evidence that robocalls work? Here in Arizona, I received at least six distinct, very negative, in some cases false robocalls this past weekend from the Republican National Committee. If I had been inclined to vote for McCain, this would have turned me against him.
Chris Cillizza: There is SOME evidence they work to push negative information out to the general public that is too controversial to put into a television or radio ad.
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San Francisco: No, it's not light out at 5:55 a.m. -- sunrise today was at 6:37 a.m., thanks to Sunday's time change. I have not voted yet, because I have to be on the road before our polls open, but I am looking forward to pulling out my sheet of 34 propositions and filling out my four-page California ballot. Voting is a lovely right, but I do wish that the California legislature would make a decision about something without sending it out for referendum.
Chris Cillizza: California is sort of the wild west when it comes to ballot initiatives/referenda....
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New York: Where and how do you watch the returns? Do you divide your attention between the networks and the Internet, or do you have some sort of super-special journalistic satellite feed the rest of us don't? (P.S. I'll be watching the returns with some newly naturalized first-time voting friends and eating lots of yummy-but-really-bad-for-you Bosnian food.)
Chris Cillizza: I will be at the post.com tonight -- filing reports on important moments throughout the night on The Fix and appearing on our live webcast of tonight's festivities.
Some predictions:
Total pumpkin spice lattes consumed by Fix: 3
Pieces of pizza eaten: 9
Cokes consumed: 6
Times I say "Holy cow, did you see this?": 75
_______________________
Minneapolis: I seriously doubt that was my wife posting, as our neighborhood is mid-scale, not upscale, but we split the same way: one unenamored Franken voter, one unenamored Barkley voter.
Chris Cillizza: Franken and Barkley knotted at TWO votes each. Will Coleman receive a single vote?
We are kidding, Coleman folks. Kidding.
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: Hi Chris. If Minnesota ends up electing Franken (following the Ventura debacle), how long would it take to pass an amendment to strip the state of its Senate privileges?
Chris Cillizza: I laughed out loud at this one.
Well played, sir.
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Alexandria, Va.: It took me 45 minutes to vote this morning at 6 a.m. The woman in front of me in line said she had open-heart surgery two weeks ago, but still wanted to make sure she voted.
Chris Cillizza: WHOAH!
_______________________
Annapolis, Md.: One that for the longest time wasn't in play, but looks to be a tight one: Maryland's 1st District -- what do you think?
Chris Cillizza: Hello Annapolis. Awesome town I need to spend more time in.
Maryland's 1st is a good bellwether to see how good a night it will be for House Democrats.
By the numbers, state Sen. Andy Harris (R) should win this eastern shore seat easily but longtime Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R) has endorsed the Democratic candidate and both sides acknowledge the race is close.
If Democrats can pull off an upset in the 1st, they are likely headed to a national gain of more than 30 seats.
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Redskins: I think Pittsburgh is referring to the Redskins predictor. If they lose their game prior to the election, the party in power loses the White House. I was very, very conflicted last night.
Chris Cillizza: AHA!
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Northeast Florida: I tried to early vote on several occasions, but there were long lines, with waits of at least an hour. I guess a lot of people voted early, because the lines today are short!
Chris Cillizza: There was HUGE early vote in Florida...my guess is there will be massive day-off voting there as well.
Keep an eye on the Sunshine State. If Obama wins there, it badly complicates McCain's electoral path to 270.
_______________________
New York: Has The Fix voted yet? Do you and Mrs. Fix go together?
Chris Cillizza: The Fix does not vote. Journalistic objectivity and all that.
Mrs. Fix left to vote about 30 mins ago.
_______________________
Milwaukee: On my way home from the gym at 6:45 a.m., there were huge lines...
Chris Cillizza: On the way HOME from the gym at 6:45 am?!?
Man do I feel like a slacker.
_______________________
Ann Arbor, Mich.: Oh no! In my Obama fever I accidently voted no against Proposition 1 (legalizing medical marijuana) in Michigan. Do you have any clue as to how things are looking for this proposal? I've had enough disappointment this fall with Maize and Blue football -- I don't need Proposition 1 to fail too.
Chris Cillizza: I wish I did but I between covering the presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial races, I haven't spent as much time as I would have liked to watching these propositions.
I can tell you how the Michigan season will end, however: not good.
_______________________
Abingdon, Md.: So, will The Fix go on hiatus for the next two years or so? Also, do you think one of the reasons this cycle ran so long was because the sitting vice president did not run and the field was open on both sides? Do you think that whoever wins tonight, there will be in all likelihood no one opposing the president in power (from his own party) in 2012, keeping at least one party's primary short and sweet? And what might the other side look like?
washingtonpost.com: Thank You (and Two Notes on the Future of The Fix) (washingtonpost.com, Nov. 4)
Chris Cillizza: The Fix will DEFINITELY be taking it slow for the remainder of the week as Catholic field hockey is playing in the semifinals tomorrow and then, when they win, the championship game on Saturday.
But, per our Fix post today, we will be back at it relatively soon. The Fix is going to turn to focus on the White House over the next few years and I will be part of a four person team covering 1600 Pennsylvania Ave for the Post as well.
Never fear, however. The Fix will still be all over the Virginia and New Jersey governors races in 2009 as well a the 2010 midterm elections and the race for the White House in 2012.
So please make sure to check back early and often!
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/11/thank_you_and_a_note_on_the_fu.html
_______________________
Chris Cillizza: Folks,
My time is up! Thank you for joining me today, for sharing your voting stories and for your continued support of The Fix both today and as we pivot to focus on the White House in the days to come.
Remember to check out our election night viewer's guide on The Fix this afternoon and our updates all night long on the news you need to know from the most exciting day in politics in the last four years!
Have a great election day!
Chris
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
November 3, 2008 Monday
The New York Times on the Web
Campaigns Focus on States Their Parties Lost in 2004
BYLINE: By SHARON OTTERMAN; Contributing reporting were Michael Cooper, Jeff Zeleny, John M. Broder, Julie Bosman and Michael Falcone.
SECTION: Section ; Column 0; National Desk; Pg.
LENGTH: 1510 words
On the last Sunday before the election, the presidential candidates and their running mates kept up a relentless pace by visiting states their respective parties had lost in 2004.
Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee who is trailing in national polls, was making appearances in two states that voted Democratic in 2004, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where he will hold his final town hall. On Monday, he will visit five swing states -- starting with a midnight rally in Florida then Virginia, Indiana, New Mexico and Nevada -- along with a stop in Tennessee before flying home to Arizona for Election Day.
''Now let me give you a little straight talk about the state of the race today,'' Mr. McCain said hoarsely at a morning rally at Strath Haven High School in Wallingford, Pa. ''There's just two days left. We're a couple of points behind in Pennsylvania. The pundits have written us off, just like they've done before.''
Then his voice cleared: ''My friends, the Mac is back!''
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, spent Sunday speaking at rallies in the largest cities in the hotly contested state of Ohio, with Bruce Springsteen taking the stage Sunday evening in Cleveland to warm up the crowd. On Monday, he will visit three states that voted Republican in 2004, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, before heading home to Chicago.
''We are at the crossroads, and its been a long, long, time coming,'' Mr. Springsteen said, strumming a guitar before breaking into a song, ''The Rising.'' ''I am honored to be on the same stage with Senator Obama. From the beginning, there's been something in Senator Obama that's called upon our better angels.''
Mr. Obama entered the stage all smiles.
''I've got to tell you the last couple of days I've just been feeling good,'' he said, adding that it was in part due to the presence of his wife, Michelle, and daughters Malia and Sasha on the campaign trail. ''You start to think we might be able to win an election on Nov. 4.''
But he warned against complacency, urging his supporters to go to the polls on Election Day: ''We can't give up now, not when there is so much at stake. We got to go out there and win this election.''
Mr. Obama spent the morning in Columbus addressing tens of thousands of people on the grounds of the Ohio State House. ''It won't be easy, it won't be quick, but you and I know it's time to come together and change this country,'' Mr. Obama said. ''We can't let this slip away.''
Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, was also appearing in Columbus on Sunday during her own four-city Ohio tour.
''The time for choosing is near, and the choice is going to come down to what we believe in, Ohio,'' she said in Canton. ''We believe in the forward movement of freedom, not the constant expansion of government.''
Senator Joseph R. Biden. Jr., Mr. Obama's running mate, addressed supporters in Florida, starting in Tallahassee, moving on to Gainesville before a final appearance in Daytona Beach. In his first stop, he said the country's divisive politics must end.
''We cannot stay blue and red, really, we cannot stay divided,'' he said on the campus of Florida State University on Sunday afternoon. ''We can't strengthen the economy if we are pitted one against the other.''
''We cannot move past the politics of division unless we reach out to those people in the parking lot,'' he added, referring to a dozen noisy pro-McCain protesters nearby.
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, also speaking on ''Face the Nation,'' said that Senator McCain was poised to make a final surge.
''Well, what we've seen in the last two weeks is very much a tightening of the race in the states that matter,'' Mr. Graham said. ''We see closing in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Ohio. We have him [Mr. Obama] under 50, in the margin of error.''
For all of the last-minute campaigning, many Americans have already voted. A record 27 million absentee and early votes were cast in 30 states as of Saturday night, according to The Associated Press.
Off the trail, the Obama campaign tried to make the most of Vice President Cheney's support of Mr. McCain in a speech in Laramie, Wyo., on Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the Obama campaign had produced a television ad highlighting Mr. Cheney's remarks as an ''endorsement.'' The ad ends with two photos of Mr. McCain with President Bush, emphasizing Mr. Obama's refrain of linking the two.
While Mr. McCain has spent months distancing himself from President Bush and his policies, he did take the unusual step of praising the president during his Wallingford, Pa., appearance on Sunday. The remarks came after he had been introduced by Tom Ridge, the former Pennsylvania governor and Homeland Security secretary.
''I think that Tom Ridge -- and President Bush -- deserve some credit for the fact there's not been another attack on the United States of America since 9/11,'' Mr. McCain said.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party in Pennsylvania released a new attack ad featuring Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Mr. Obama's controversial former pastor. The McCain campaign said it had not authorized the ad.
The 30-second spot, titled ''Judgment,'' juxtaposes images of Mr. Obama and Mr. Wright. A narrator says: ''Barack Obama -- he chose as his pastor a man who blamed the U.S. for the 9/11 attacks. Does that sound like someone who should be president?''
It was unclear how often the ad had been broadcast, and the state group was raising money on its Web site to get more air time.
For the most part, the candidates hammered home the central messages of their campaigns in rally after rally.
In Columbus, Mr. Obama vowed to not raises taxes on any American earning less than $250,000 a year, and reminded voters he was the candidate who would move quickly to get troops out of Iraq.
''It's time to stop spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while the Iraqi government sits on a huge surplus,'' he said. ''As president, I will end this war.''
Mr. McCain, meanwhile, continued to play on comments by Senator Biden indicating that Mr. Obama would likely face an international crisis during the first six months of his campaign.
''My friends, I have been tested, Senator Obama hasn't,'' McCain said at an afternoon rally Scranton, Pa., with Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut standing behind him. ''And we know, Senator Obama won't have the right response to that test, because the short time he's been in the Senate we've seen the wrong response from him over and over again.''
The night before, Mr. McCain had appeared on ''Saturday Night Live.'' He opened the show doing a mock QVC segment, with Tina Fey as Sarah Palin on his side.
Standing in a suit and tie, Mr. McCain hawked knives for cutting pork for the shopping network; and offered 10 blank commemorative plates celebrating the joint town-hall-style meetings that he had wanted to have with Mr. Obama. His wife, Cindy McCain, displayed shiny gold necklaces named after his signature campaign finance reform bill, McCain-Feingold.
At one point, the fake Sarah Palin went rogue, attempting to sell Palin 2012 T-shirts.
The skit was a wry take on Mr. Obama's half-hour television spot on Wednesday, which cost his campaign more than $3 million. ''Look, would I rather be on three major networks?'' Mr. McCain said. ''Of course. But I'm a true maverick -- a Republican without money.''
Keeping with the joking theme, the real Sarah Palin unwittingly took a prank telephone call Saturday from a Canadian comedian posing as President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, who told her she would make a good president someday.
''Maybe in eight years,'' replies a laughing Palin, who spent several minutes on the call bantering with the fake president about hunting and other subjects before being told it was a prank.
The call was made by Marc-Antoine Audette, who with his comedic partner, Sebastien Trudel, is notorious for prank calls to celebrities and heads of state.
Meanwhile, the government was investigating whether any laws had been broken in the disclosure that Barack Obama's aunt was living in the country illegally.
The Associated Press reported on Friday that Mr. Obama's half-aunt on his father's side, Zeituni Onyango, has been living in Boston public housing even though she was ordered to leave the country in 2004.
The Homeland Security Department is not permitted to disclose details about an individual's immigration status, but two sources, one of whom is a federal law enforcement official, told The A.P that Ms. Onyango was in the country illegally. The A.P. said it could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in the information's release.
Mr. Obama's campaign pledged on Saturday to return her $265 in campaign contributions, which Ms. Onyango, a 56-year-old Kenyan citizen, donated in increments in as small as $5. Only American citizens are allowed to donate to political campaigns.
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The New York Times
November 3, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Inside the Times, November 3, 2008
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 2270 words
International
FIGHTING IN CONGO STIRS FEAR
That Instability Could Spread
The relatively small-scale bush fighting in Congo over the last week has attracted intense diplomatic activity. The reason is that violence in Congo, a vast country that borders nine nations in the heart of Africa, usually ends up involving its neighbors. And many foreign officials believe that if Congo collapses, it will drag other countries down with it. PAGE
CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON TAINTED FEED
Facing growing concern that China's animal feed industry could be contaminated by an industrial chemical, regulators there said that they had confiscated and destroyed more than 3,600 tons of the animal feed tainted with the substance, called melamine. The government also said it closed 238 feed makers in a series of sweeps that involved more than 369,000 government inspectors. PAGE A8
LIBYAN LEADER VISITS RUSSIA
In his first visit to the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the leader of Libya, visited Moscow over the weekend for talks on oil and natural gas deals. The trip to Russia came just months after he met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and it suggested that Colonel Qaddafi is maneuvering to play Russia and the United States against each other for commercial and political favors. PAGE A11
THE TALIBAN'S WIDENING SHADOW
Fear of the Taliban and other militant groups has trickled down to Lahore, Pakistan, long considered the country's cultural and intellectual capital. Lahore's liberal and tolerant outlook has been under attack from Taliban-style moral policing, and anonymous threats have led many shopkeepers to stop selling their wares. ''We didn't want to take any chances,'' one trader said. PAGE A8
ISRAEL TO HALT SETTLEMENT FINANCING
Ehud Olmert, the departing prime minister of Israel, announced several measures in response to a rise in violence by extremist Jewish settlers in the West Bank. One of those measures included halting all direct or indirect government financing of illegal outposts -- an acknowledgment that public money was still being spent on the outposts. PAGE A9
DELEGATES DEFECT FROM A.N.C.
The events of this weekend may go down in South African history as a watershed: a time when 6,400 political delegates from around the nation defected and charted a new course that loosened the African National Congress's grip on government power. Then again, the movement might turn out to be a flop, a lot of batting of wings without sustained takeoff. PAGE A11
NATIONAL
THE FOOT SOLDIERS
On the Floor of Battle
It is still the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, still the center of the amorphous, temperamental, life-altering thing called ''Wall Street.'' But it is quieter now, the humor is not quite as black, and the brokers are a dwindling bunch. Not all leave of their own volition. This Land, by Dan Barry. PAGE A12
GOVERNOR SAID TO BE CLEARED
Gov. Jim Gibbons of Nevada has been cleared by the Justice Department of any wrongdoing in connection with an inquiry into whether he helped a friend win defense contracts in exchange for gifts, his lawyer said. The lawyer, Abbe D. Lowell, said the investigation spanned 18 months and began when a former staff member of a technology company run by a friend of the governor made accusations of influence peddling. PAGE A14
FOR PALIN, A TENDER CONNECTION
Among the many drawn to see Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, are those who come because they see in her an advocate for children with special needs. Ms. Palin, 44, is herself the mother of a child with Down syndrome. The families look to her not only because of her promise of improved policies, but because she offers a connection to their struggles and needs. PAGE A19
WELCOME TO A GAWKERS' PARADISE
As he does every year to celebrate the day Nevada became a state, Dr. Lonnie Hammargren opened his house to the public on Sunday. Once a one-story house, it now has three floors and is attached to houses on each side that Dr. Hammargren has bought and similarly overloaded with a lifetime of acquisitions fit for a proud, eccentric pack rat. ''Eclectic'' does not begin to describe it. PAGE A13
OBITUARIES
MILTON KATSELAS, 75
An iconoclastic acting teacher whose 30 years in Hollywood raised him to guru status in the eyes of hundreds of actors, many of them famous. He was a pragmatist who declared himself open to any and all acting theories if they got results. PAGE A29
RABBI MOSHE COTEL, 65
An acclaimed pianist and composer whose works were often infused with themes emanating from his deep Jewish roots, a weave of influences that only later in life led him to the pulpit. Rabbi Cotel was ordained five years ago and since then had been spiritual leader of Temple Beth El in Manhattan Beach, Brooklyn. PAGE A29
BUSINESS
FORECASTERS LOOK TO READ
Wall Street's Political Tea Leaves
Market forecasters like to find a link between presidential election results and the stock market. Some have pointed out that declines in the market immediately before voting generally favor the challenging party. Some research shows that stocks tend to do better the day after a Republican presidential victory. Other data shows that, over time, stocks perform better under Democratic administrations. Or maybe there is no connection at all. PAGE B1
A NEW MEDIA LANDSCAPE
Consider that when Senator John Kerry ran against President Bush in 2004, YouTube did not exist to host candid videos of politicians (like the clip of Barack Obama and a voter, above), The Huffington Post had not yet debuted, and Facebook barely reached beyond the Ivy League. But when election returns start coming in on Tuesday night, the expanded number of new-media options available for getting the newswill even include some old-media entries. PAGE B1
TELEVISION AS COMFORT FOOD
CBS, which supposedly does not fixate on the 18- to 49-year-old demographic, has twice as many shows in the Top 20 among young adult viewers as any of its network competitors. Its lineup -- of police procedurals where the criminals always get caught and sitcoms that are reliably funny in unchallenging ways -- seems to be becoming a safe haven for viewers worried about their jobs and mortgages. PAGE B1
A GROWING INTERNET AD PIE
Local advertisers are expected to spend $12.9 billion online this year, almost five times what they spent in 2004, according to Borrell Associates, a local media research firm. Small businesses are helping drive the growth, and some newspapers are changing their approach in hope of capturing a bigger portion of the sales. PAGE B6
THE END OF THE RIDE
Among those who are not looking forward to the end of the election season are the staff members, variously called ''campaign embeds'' or ''off-air reporters,'' that news media outlets hire to shadow candidates during the campaign. They may end up with great tales to tell, a great resume filler -- and no job. PAGE B10
WORDS YOU CAN'T SAY ON MTV
MTV's muzzling of Weird Al Yankovic; Internet gossip sinks Frank magazine; American Banker chooses its Banker of the Year in a decidedly off-year for bankers; and the bottom falls out for ''Wall Street Warriors.'' Media Talk. PAGE B10
Persian Gulf Asked to Increase Aid B4
Student Loan Company Settles B4
Microsoft Reports Security Status B9
NEW YORK
A HISTORIC WATERWAY
Shows Signs of a Comeback
After decades of decline, commercial shipping has returned to the Erie Canal, though it is a far cry from the canal's heyday. The number of shipments rose to 42 so far this year during the season the canal is open, from 15 during last year's season. Once nearly forgotten, the relic of history has shown signs of life as higher fuel prices have made barges an attractive alternative to trucks. PAGE A23
TURNING TO CONGRESS FOR HELP
Some 600 other survivors of Nazi Germany and Vichy France, so far unsuccessful in a federal lawsuit that accuses the national French railroad of carrying more than 72,000 Jews and thousands of others to Nazi camps, have pinned their hopes on a bill in Congress that would permit their class-action suit to go forward. PAGE A27
A STEP UP IN CLASS
Ylon Schwartz beat out more than 6,800 competitors to get to the finals in the World Series of Poker Main Event, which is considered the unofficial world championship. Even the last-place finisher will take home $900,000. It is a far cry from the day he won $340 by managing to throw a lemon across Church Street from Liberty Plaza and onto the roof of a Burger King near the World Trade Center. PAGE A26
SPORTS
A KNACK FOR ODD CONVERSATION
And Winning Football Games
Mike Leach is a law school graduate who never played football in college and is given to conversations that have nothing to do with the game. He is also coach of the Texas Tech football team, which scored the biggest victory in its history, beating the nation's No. 1 team, Texas, on Saturday night. And with just two years remaining on his contract, he could become one of the most sought-after candidates for coaching jobs at places like Clemson and Washington. PAGE D1
LIFE WITHOUT BASEBALL
Eight years into his retirement from baseball, Jim Leyritz has been shunned by the Yankees. The nearly $11 million he earned as a player is gone, as is his lucrative speaking career. He is awaiting trial in Florida on charges of manslaughter and driving under the influence of alcohol after a fatal crash in December. But not every detail of his life fits the fable of the self-destructive athlete. PAGE D1
GUARD PASSES IN WOMEN'S TENNIS
A year ago Justine Henin and Maria Sharapova played one of the best finals in the 36-year history of the women's season-ending championships. But when the Sony Ericsson Championships begin on Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, neither Henin nor Sharapova will be in the eight-woman field. PAGE D8
Arts
PROFESSORS' LIBERALISM CONTAGIOUS? NEW STUDIES SAY PROBABLY NOT
An article of faith among conservative critics of American universities has been that liberal professors politically indoctrinate their students. A few weeks ago Michael Barone, a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, warned in The Washington Times that ''the liberal thugocracy'' seems to be taking ''marching orders'' from ''college and university campuses.'' But three new studies have found such worries to be overwrought. The three sets of researchers concluded that professors have virtually no impact on the political views of their students. PAGE C1
GIVING VOICE TO MANY, AND HIMSELF
Studs Terkel's radio voice was unforgettable, as if each phrase scraped the ear with a scoop of gravel. What remains in memory, too, is the earnestness that could turn both fervent and sentimental, Edward Rothstein writes of Mr. Terkel, who died last week. And there was the music -- jazz and blues that often provided a respite from the trademark persona. But what Mr. Rothstein remembers of Mr. Terkel's radio shows in Chicago is that even though Mr. Terkel had some terrific guests, he rarely stood aside. PAGE C1
CELLO FAILS TO FIND HIGH SUITOR
It was a remarkable cello, with an equally remarkable pedigree, and by all accounts it was primed to draw a record price as serious bidding began on the Web site of Tarisio, auctioneers of fine stringed instruments and bows. There was the first bid, $1.35 million. And then there was silence. When the auction ended, there was only that first bid, which was lower than the cello's confidential reserve price. The 1717 cello, one of only 60 or so made by Antonio Stradivari, went unsold. PAGE C3
SEX, DEATH AND CABARET
Karen Kohler's new two-act show, ''Little Death: Songs of Coming and Going,'' at the Zipper Factory on 37th Street in New York, is as cosmopolitan a work of musical theater as the critic Stephen Holden can remember. ''Little Death'' fearlessly blurs the lines separating cabaret, theater and rock 'n' roll, he writes, and Ms. Kohler is a performer who stretches her resources to their limits and sometimes beyond. Between the first act, ''Sex Act,'' and the second, ''Death Act,'' she transforms from a prowling seductress with her hair loose to a more demure mourner. PAGE C2
EYES THAT ARE MOVING
Priyadarsini Govind, who specializes in the South Indian dance tradition of Bharata Natyam, turns into a mischievous Krishna, a grieving mother and a spurned lover at the Skirball Center for the Performing Arts in Greenwich Village. The focal point, whether conveying tragedy or comedy, is Ms. Govind's searing, kohl-lined eyes.
Biker Chicks Rule in Dance C5
'America in the Age of Jackson' C7
Editorial
LAME DUCK SUMMIT
President Bush will be the lamest of ducks by Nov. 15, when leaders of 20 nations meet in Washington to discuss the global financial crisis. But the meeting cannot wait. The global economic powers need to air their concerns, and global markets need to see that political leaders are ready to work together to restore stability. PAGE A26
Op-Ed
WILLIAM KRISTOL
The bad news for liberals is that John McCain could still win the election. The good news? That wouldn't be so terrible for them. PAGE A27
PAUL KRUGMAN
Defeat should cause some Republican soul-searching, as the party asks itself how it lost touch with the national mainstream. But my prediction is that the party will become even more extreme. PAGE A27
NO MORE ECONOMIC FALSE CHOICES
The next president, according to the prevailing wisdom, will have to make hard choices: between increasing public spending and reducing the deficit, between improving regulation and protecting free markets. In an Op-Ed article, Robert E. Rubin and Jared Bernstein write that these decisions, in many important ways, should not be viewed as tradeoffs. PAGE A27
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A3)
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The New York Times
November 3, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
The Soiled Envelope, Please
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL; Pg. 30
LENGTH: 325 words
There are no awards for the season's slimiest political messages (Swift Boat statuettes?), but two deserve consideration in the character assassination category.
In the first, Republicans in Pennsylvania flooded 75,000 Jewish voters with an e-mail alarum from a retired Jewish judge equating a vote for Barack Obama with the ''tragic mistake'' of Jews who ignored the warning signs of the Holocaust. Quick apologies and retractions were offered once this surfaced in the press, but too late for the unspeakable to be spiked.
In the second, the campaign of Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, who is in a very tight race, broadcast her desperation by attacking her opponent, State Senator Kay Hagan, for accepting ''godless money'' at a ''secret'' fund-raiser whose hosts included a leader of a secularist group.
At the end, the TV screen fills with a shadowy photo of Ms. Hagan, an elder at her Christian church, as a female voice fairly shrieks: ''There is no God!''
Then there is the fringe madness of ''Letter from 2012 in Obama's America'' -- an apocalyptic fiction making the rounds from the conservative Christian group Focus on the Family Action. It foresees an Obama incumbency marked by terrorist attacks on American cities, rampant crime as guns are confiscated, a nuclear attack on Israel and the Boy Scouts' disbanding to avoid court-empowered gay leaders.
It seems just another straight-line for Jon Stewart until the nation remembers that the group's leader is James Dobson. He is one of the most prominent leaders on the evangelical right, with an audience measured in the scores of millions.
The Democrats have their share of slimy ads, like one targeted at the elderly that falsely claims John McCain would cut Social Security benefits in half. We're not excusing that ad or any other policy distortions. But frankly, it's not even an also-ran compared with what the McCain campaign and its allies have been up to.
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The New York Times
November 3, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Unauthorized Ad Reminds Voters About a Certain Pastor
BYLINE: By MICHAEL FALCONE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 445 words
This 30-second advertisement released by the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, titled ''Judgment,'' was not authorized by the campaign of Senator John McCain.
PRODUCER Not provided.
THE SCRIPT A narrator says: ''If you think you could ever vote for Barack Obama, consider this -- Obama chose as his spiritual leader, this man.'' The Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.: ''Not God bless America, God damn America.'' Narrator: ''He also picked Wright to baptize his children.'' Mr. Wright: ''The U.S. of K.K.K.A.'' Narrator: ''Barack Obama, he chose as his pastor a man who blamed the U.S. for the 9/11 attacks. Does that sound like someone who should be president?'' Mr. Wright: ''God damn America.''
ON THE SCREEN The advertisement opens with a profile photograph of Senator Obama followed by one of Mr. Wright. Then the advertisement cuts to the sermon Mr. Wright gave in which he declared, ''God damn America.'' More images juxtaposing Mr. Obama and Mr. Wright lead into a clip of a second fiery sermon by the preacher. The advertisement ends with a shot of Mr. Obama next to the words, ''Judgment to Lead? No.''
ACCURACY The advertisement includes short excerpts of Mr. Wright's most incendiary remarks and accurately notes that he was Mr. Obama's pastor and the man who baptized his children. After Sept. 11, 2001, Mr. Wright delivered a sermon suggesting that the terrorist attacks were a consequence of American foreign policy. But there is no evidence that Mr. Obama was present for this or the other sermons cited. And it omits the fact that Mr. Obama began distancing himself from Mr. Wright months ago after some of the preacher's controversial remarks surfaced. Mr. Obama delivered a speech in late April denouncing some of Mr. Wright's statements as ''divisive and destructive.'' He withdrew his membership at Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago, where Mr. Wright served as pastor for more than three decades.
SCORECARD This last-minute effort by the Republican Party to bring up the Wright issue is aimed at the crucial white voters Mr. Obama must court to win an important state like Pennsylvania. Though some voters may be aware that Mr. Obama severed ties with Mr. Wright during the primaries, the spot's aim is to keep the controversy front and center and to plant doubts in the minds of voters considering backing Mr. Obama. Mr. McCain once indicated he would avoid using his opponent's ties to Mr. Wright as a line of attack but since has been less rigid on the point. On Sunday, Charlie Black, an adviser to Mr. McCain, confirmed that the campaign did not authorize the advertisement and wished that the party had not made it.
MICHAEL FALCONE
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USA TODAY
November 3, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Fox studio hosts brake for truck ad
BYLINE: Michael Hiestand
SECTION: SPORTS; Pg. 3C
LENGTH: 685 words
Sponsor plugs are especially prominent in TV sports, where stats and replays and just about everything else can be "brought to you" by somebody. But Fox managed to take product placement to a new level Sunday -- having its announcers sell you a truck in the middle of its top-rated NFL studio show. Really.
Fox brought in Jeff Hammond, who dissects cars on Fox's NASCAR coverage, to describe a Ford truck with a "luxury look to it" that had been brought in the studio. Analyst Michael Strahan got in the back seat to show all the leg room while Terry Bradshaw jumped up and down in the truck's bed.
"One thing we try to do at Fox is work with advertisers," said Fox studio producer Scott Ackerson Sunday. "Ford came to us and said, 'This is important to us, could you make something happen?'"
Savvy viewers could have guessed why Fox's Howie Long, on set, didn't help out with the tire-kicking: He does Chevy truck ads.
Pantsgate: That new San Francisco 49ers coach Mike Singletary last week pulled his pants down (in the locker room) to motivate his players was an irresistible topic for Sunday's NFL shows. Fox's Jimmy Johnson called the move "kind of stupid" while CBS' Bill Cowher went clearly on-the-record: "I think pulling your pants down is inappropriate."
But Fox's Strahan suggested pants-dropping would affect concentration: "As a player when a coach does something like that, you're more concerned in the second half about what just happened. You're thinking, 'My coach just pulled his pants down.' Mulling over that could make you miss the snap count."
Singletary, on the NFL Network on Sunday, says he'll "tone it down a little bit. ... We are not in the era of 'What is said in this room stays in the room.' I've seen some things in the locker room that would blow your mind."
Serious stuff: On Sept.16, HBO's Real Sports debuted a Bernard Goldberg report from India showing that children are forced to miss school and work long hours stitching soccer balls. But British ball-maker Mitre, as reported by the New York Post on Sunday, filed a federal lawsuit claiming HBO paid children to go on-camera and misrepresent their lives. Said HBO's Ray Stallone on Sunday: "We are not going to comment on pending litigation." ... ESPN's Outside the Lines Sunday looked at the death of Ereck Plancher, the Central Florida football player who collapsed and died during a March 18 team workout. James Jamison, who was at the workout as Plancher's teammate, said when Plancher collapsed, the coaches said he was all right, and then asked the players to stand Plancher up. "So we stood him up, and he fell again," Jamison said.
Politics in sports: TNT's Ernie Johnson, after colleague Charles Barkley said the resume of the Phoenix Suns' bench was "thinner than Sarah Palin's," offered this: "I can see Alaska from the set." (The set is in Atlanta.) ... After the Republican nominee in a U.S. Senate race in Illinois in 2004 dropped out, ESPN's Mike Ditka was recruited to take on then-state senator Barack Obama. Sunday, Ditka reminisced about what might have been: "Sometimes, the scrutiny that these politicians get is ridiculous. I think there are a lot of good people who stay out of it. Not that I'm a good person." ... Candidates likely to get nicknames: John McCain and Barack Obama each appear in taped one-on-ones with Chris Berman at halftime of tonight's Monday Night Football.
Spice rack: Fox's Curt Menefee on Sunday suggested some NFL teams listen to anybody: "It absolutely amazes me the impact sports talk radio and the Internet has had on the mind-set of people in the NFL. ... Why let Larry from Longmont on Line 3 influence your decisions? Too many team decision-makers don't know any better because they don't have a football background." So they turn to radio shows? ... New York Giant Plaxico Burress, who signed a $30million contract before the season opener, has been fined more than $200,000 this season. Fox's Strahan, an ex-teammate, says Burress has the team "reaching their boiling point." But Burress, to Fox's Pam Oliver Sunday, said, "I've never been ashamed of anything I've done."
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USA TODAY
November 3, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Lobbyists go for congressional seats;
Candidates say experiences will work in lawmaking
BYLINE: John Fritze
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 8A
LENGTH: 767 words
WASHINGTON -- In a year when most candidates are sneering at the influence of special interests in Washington, Republican Sydney Hay is making what may be the toughest pitch in politics: lobbyist for Congress.
Running to represent northeast Arizona in the House, Hay has faced a barrage of negative advertising over her 18-year-old Arizona lobbying firm, Southwest Policy Group. But being a lobbyist, she insists, shouldn't be an impediment to elected office.
"Without someone like me, taxpayers have no voice," said Hay, who lobbies for an Arizona mining association, a school-choice group and three other interests, state lobbying reports show. "I advocated for the jobs that mattered in this district."
While candidates across the USA, including the presidential nominees, battle for the mantle of reform in this year's election, an analysis by USA TODAY and the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics indentified 15 current and former lobbyists who are running for Congress. Nine are challengers; six are current members.
Of the 15, nine are in competitive races, including three incumbents, according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report, which rates the races.
Many of the candidates said the skills they learn as lobbyists -- convincing others, finding compromise -- will make them strong lawmakers. In almost every case, though, their past work has also provided a political opportunity for their opponents.
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts aired television ads noting that his opponent, Democrat Jim Slattery, worked as a lobbyist for the Washington firm Wiley Rein.
"For the last 14 years he's been a Washington lobbyist," the narrator in one Roberts ad says as Slattery's face is shown next to a mounting pile of $100 bills.
Slattery, a former member of the House, released a list of his clients from 1995 to this year, which included Kansas City Southern Railway, Motorola, Spirit Airlines, the wheat gluten industry and 28 others.
Congress approved a lobbying bill last year that required more frequent reporting of lobbyist expenditures and also forced senators to wait two years after retirement, instead of one, to begin lobbying. House members still may lobby after one year.
The new rules follow the Jack Abramoff scandal, in which a former lobbyist was convicted of plying public officials with gifts in return for political favors.
Watchdog groups have focused on members of Congress who become lobbyists. There are 158 lobbyists who served in Congress -- 73 Democrats and 85 Republicans -- according to Congressional Quarterly.
Less attention is paid to people moving the other direction.
Brian Bilbray is an example of both. He became a federal lobbyist after losing his House seat in 2000. The California Republican won a special House election in 2006, despite being criticized by opponents for his years as a lobbyist.
In a tight race for re-election, Bilbray again faces criticism. "Brian Bilbray is a lifetime politician, and when he wasn't, he was a lobbyist," Bilbray's Democratic opponent, Nick Leibham, told the North County Times.
Bilbray's campaign manager, Kurt Bardella, declined to comment.
Lobbyists have been maligned in past election seasons, but the rhetoric increased this year as Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain run on themes of changing Washington. "I imagine this year it's a tougher sell, or it's an easy mark for an opponent," David Kimball, a political scientist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said of candidates. "The public perception of lobbyists has never been that great. They rank somewhere around used-car salesmen."
Other lobbyist challengers include Democratic Idaho Senate candidate Larry LaRocco, Alabama House Republican hopeful Wayne Parker and Republican New Jersey Senate candidate Dick Zimmer. LaRocco and Zimmer served in Congress.
In addition to Bilbray, incumbents running for re-election who were lobbyists include Reps. Jason Altmire, D-Pa.; Jo Ann Emerson, R-Mo.; Dan Lungren, R-Calif.; and Doris Matsui, D-Calif.
"We definitely view it as a strength," said Jean McNeil, a spokeswoman for LaRocco, who does not mention his lobbying on his website biography. She cited LaRocco's experience in banking and financial services.
In Ohio, Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers is running against Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in a seat left vacant by retiring Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce. Stivers served as a lobbyist for Banc One Ohio in Columbus for seven years, a line on his resume that Democrats frequently raise.
"Most people see this as just politics," Stivers said, adding that he needs to tell "the rest of my story."
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USA TODAY
November 3, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Candidates seek impact up to the end;
Obama pursues votes of the working class
BYLINE: Kathy Kiely
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 564 words
CLEVELAND -- At numerous rallies during the course of his 21-month race for president, Barack Obama has walked onstage to the Bruce Springsteen song The Rising. On Sunday night here, he got the live version.
The Democratic nominee got a high-wattage endorsement from The Boss himself as Obama made a final push for the working-class voters who inspired many of the rock icon's songs.
"I've spent most of my life measuring the distance between the American dream and the American reality," Springsteen said, strumming on an acoustic guitar as he warmed up a crowd packed onto Cleveland's lakefront mall for a rally on a chilly autumn evening. "I believe Sen. Obama has taken the measure of that distance in his own life and his own work."
Springsteen played a mini-concert for the throng estimated by police to be 80,000 while they waited for Obama. He then segued into The Rising, introducing "the next first family" as Obama came onstage with his wife, Michelle, and daughters Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7.
In the middle of Obama's speech, the skies opened with a cold rain, but neither the candidate nor the crowd appeared daunted. "Sunshine is coming!" Obama ad-libbed.
Obama is taking pains to rebut Republican John McCain's charges that his spending plans will require tax hikes. He said his plan will reduce taxes for 95% of earners "so that you can get onto iTunes and get the latest Bruce Springsteen tune."
Obama ended the race's last weekend in Ohio, a state that sealed President Bush's 2004 re-election -- and, this year, handed Obama one of his most bitter disappointments of the primary campaign.
Weekend polls showed Obama leading McCain in Ohio, a sign Obama may reverse his loss in the March primary to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as well as the Democrats' narrow losses here in 2000 and 2004.
In the morning, Obama told a crowd that police pegged at 60,000 on the west lawn of the Ohio Statehouse in Columbus that he would do more for the middle class than McCain.
"The last thing we can afford is four more years of the stale, tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else," Obama said.
"Go vote right now," he said, urging the crowd to vote at a nearby polling place before it closed Sunday evening. "Do not delay, because we have work to do."
In an unusual move that reflects the extent to which the unpopularity of the Bush administration is benefiting Obama, the Democrat's campaign released an ad publicizing Vice President Cheney's endorsement of McCain.
Obama quoted the vice president in his Columbus speech as saying he was "delighted" to back McCain.
"You've never seen Dick Cheney delighted before, but he is," Obama joked.
Along with Ohio on Sunday, Obama spent the weekend in states Republicans carried in 2000 and 2004. He spent Saturday in Nevada, Colorado and Missouri. Today, he plans stops in Jacksonville and Charlotte before his final appearance in Manassas, Va., in a state that hasn't backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.
After voting in Chicago on Tuesday morning, he'll make one last campaign stop in Indianapolis, the capital of another traditionally Republican state that Democrats are hoping to win.
By Election Day, it will have been a week since Obama last stumped in a state that the Democrats won in 2004: He appeared in Chester, Pa., on Oct. 28.
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The Washington Post
November 3, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
The Trail
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LENGTH: 590 words
'A BIG HILL TO CLIMB'
McCain Fans in Pa. Express Hope
WALLINGFORD, Pa. --The men and women who stood for hours in the Strath Haven High School gym here Sunday said they view John McCain's election as critical, though they remain unsure he will emerge victorious Tuesday.
"We're cautiously optimistic, but we're also realistic. We know we have a big hill to climb," said Marie Furey, 67, a retired Philadelphia schoolteacher.
Furey said she is backing McCain because "I'm a Republican, have been for many years," while her two children, who are in their mid-30s, are backing Barack Obama in part, she said, because they're worried about McCain running mate Sarah Palin.
"I think there are some issues, beyond her energy," she said, choosing her words carefully. "Others perceive her to be -- not experienced. It's a small concern for me. It's a large concern for my children."
But Jeff Bater, 55, who works on real estate development for a Middle Eastern private equity group, said he sees Palin as "a breath of fresh air" and is encouraged by the recent tightening in the polls in states such as Pennsylvania.
"I hope he pulls it out because the election is going to affect us for the next 10 to 15 years, easily," Bater said, adding that he thinks McCain has the experience to handle the international and domestic crises now faced by the United States. "It even affects my guys in Kuwait. Even though they're sitting on piles of oil, what happens here affects everybody."
McCain's wife, Cindy, spoke to those concerns when she introduced her husband, unveiling a new pitch for the GOP standard-bearer. "He's not a man for all times, but he's definitely a man for these times," she said, sparking a massive round of cheers.
One member of the audience even had a new moniker for McCain's rival, rather than the "Marxist" and "socialist" labels that have cropped up in rallies. When the senator from Arizona started criticizing Obama for not having faced international challenges in the past, the man shouted, "Obama's a marshmallow!"
-- Juliet Eilperin
EXPLOITING GOP FISSURES
Obama Ad Stars Cheney and Palin
A day after Vice President Cheney spoke in support of the Republican presidential ticket, Barack Obama's campaign sought Sunday to capitalize on divisions within the GOP, producing a television ad that ties the McCain-Palin ticket to the deeply unpopular vice president while associating the Democrat with Colin Powell, the respected former secretary of state.
The ad also seeks to capitalize on growing doubts about the Republican vice presidential candidate.
"Delighted," which the Obama campaign says will air starting Monday on national cable TV, once again emphasized Obama's long-standing position that a John McCain administration would represent a continuation of Bush administration economic and national security policies.
"Barack Obama. Endorsed by Warren Buffett and Colin Powell. And John McCain's latest endorsement?" the announcer in the spot says, as the ad cuts to video of the vice president at a GOP event in Wyoming.
Cheney is seen saying: "I'm delighted to support John McCain and . . . I'm pleased that he's chosen a running mate with executive talent, toughness and common sense, our next vice president, Sarah Palin."
The announcer's conclusion: "And that's not the change we need."
This is the second time in a week that she has starred in an Obama-Biden ad -- a sign the campaign is not only no longer afraid of a backlash for attacking her but now sees her as a wedge to use against McCain.
-- Garance Franke-Ruta
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The Washington Post
November 3, 2008 Monday
Met 2 Edition
A Positively Negative Home Stretch;
McCain, Obama Break Tradition By Staying On the Attack
BYLINE: Shailagh Murray, Juliet Eilperin and Robert Barnes; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1277 words
The waning hours of the longest presidential campaign in history elicited a fresh round of stinging attacks from Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain and their supporters on Sunday, a departure from the positive messages that candidates normally revert to before an election.
The two candidates kept swinging at each other as their campaigns focused on a handful of states that will determine the election. Obama cut an ad that used Vice President Cheney's endorsement of McCain to reinforce his central argument that his rival represents a third term of the unpopular Bush administration.
Republicans in Pennsylvania brought back the controversial comments of Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., despite McCain's admonition that he should not be used as a political weapon, and the campaign unleashed robo-calls that employed the withering dismissal that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton made of Obama's experience when the two were competing against each other in the Democratic primaries.
McCain adviser Charlie Black said his candidate would have preferred that the Pennsylvania GOP not air the ad using Wright's controversial anti-American statements. But "as McCain said back in the spring, he can't be the referee of every ad," Black said.
Ending a campaign on a positive note, said Republican strategist Scott Reed, "may be part of the old way, but this is unlike any campaign we've ever seen. There is such a small slice of undecided out there, I think both sides are going to finish the campaign really going after them."
Those voters, according to polls, represent McCain's last, best hope. But his campaign manager, Rick Davis, made the rounds of the talk shows to forcefully rebut pollsters and pundits uniformly predicting an Obama victory. "I think what we're in for is a slam-bang finish," Davis said on "Fox News Sunday." "I mean, it's going to be wild. . . . John McCain may be the greatest closer politician of all time."
He will need to be. Even Davis acknowledged that McCain will probably need to walk a tightrope to put together enough states to eke out the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. To that end, McCain campaigned in two states leaning toward Obama, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, that he hopes will provide part of the solution to that puzzle.
Obama's campaign architects said their sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation and months of organizing give the senator from Illinois multiple paths to victory. "Our number one strategic goal was to have a big playing field," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said on the same morning show. "We did not want to wake up on the morning of November 4 waiting for one state. We wanted a lot of different ways to win this election."
The closing days' schedules served as a guide to the states that will loom large on the networks' maps Tuesday night: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada.
Obama spent the entire day in Ohio, where voters have been going to the polls for weeks and a victory would be a back-breaker for his Republican rival. "Go vote right now," he told supporters at the Ohio Statehouse in Columbus, and his campaign aides expressed confidence that they are better organized than any Democrat in years to deliver the vote.
The Democratic nominee played to huge crowds in Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he and his family were introduced by musician Bruce Springsteen. Campaign officials are confident that their ground game here is far more potent than the organization that Sen. John F. Kerry fielded four years ago, when he lost Ohio to President Bush by 51 percent to 49 percent. In 2000, Bush beat Al Gore by four percentage points.
As the electoral map shrinks in these final hours, Ohio has become a must-win for McCain. But if Obama succeeds here, it will avenge not only the Kerry and Gore defeats but also his loss to Clinton during the primary, a defeat that underscored Obama's struggles with working-class white voters.
With a few hours left, Obama's closing addresses feature a blistering final assault on McCain.
He said Cheney's endorsement in Laramie, Wyo., on Saturday was evidence that a McCain presidency would mean the perpetuation of the Bush administration.
"Yesterday, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location and hit the campaign trail. He said that he is, and I quote, 'delighted to support John McCain,' " Obama told the crowd in Columbus. When he was repeating his lines later in Cleveland, rain started to fall.
"You notice what happened when I started talking about Dick Cheney," Obama said with a chuckle. "But a new day is dawning. Sunshine is on the way."
But Obama's schedule, and much of his message, speaks to a more immediate concern, getting voters to the polls on Tuesday. The campaign has been able to test its vaunted field organization during early voting, and Plouffe said "we're thrilled with what we're seeing."
Obama appeared concerned that his lead in the polls -- the Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll gives him an advantage of 54 percent to 43 percent, larger than many other national polls -- will inspire overconfidence in his supporters.
"Don't believe for a second this election is over. Don't think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in these last few days, because it does," he told the Cleveland crowd.
Clinton was making the case for Obama in Northern Virginia, where Obama is scheduled to campaign Monday night. "I hear that John McCain and the Republicans are trying to mislead voters and use my words against Senator Obama," Clinton said at a rally at George Mason University. "My name is Hillary Clinton, and I do not approve that message."
McCain put his faith in a battle-tested Republican get-out-the-vote effort and a defiant underdog message that acknowledged only those polls that showed the race tightening.
"My friends, the Mac is back," he told an audience in suburban Philadelphia. He also campaigned in Scranton and in New Hampshire, the state that saved his campaign during the Republican primaries. It was more than a nostalgic trip -- the state's four electoral votes could be key to McCain's strategy.
"I came to say thank you, but I came to ask for one more effort," McCain said in Peterborough. "We will disagree on a specific issue, but I will put my country first, and I will never let you down."
Although McCain's pitch to voters in his final days focuses primarily on the theme that he is more experienced and would manage the economy better than Obama, he has also increasingly shifted to the right in recent weeks as he courts voters in swing states.
In one of the clearest indications of that move, the candidate who once spoke repeatedly of the need to curb climate change now devotes his speeches to touting the need to boost oil and coal production, two of the biggest contributors to global warming, while campaigning in those coal-producing states.
Indeed, the one new line he unveiled Sunday -- which his aides said he would use several times during his seven-state swing in the run-up to Election Day -- was to make fun of something Obama had told a reporter, "The only thing I've said with respect to coal, I haven't been some coal booster."
Speaking before a crowd in Scranton, McCain said, "My friends, I've been a coal booster, and it's going to create jobs, and we're going to export coal to other countries and we are going to create hundreds of thousands of jobs."
Murray was traveling with the Obama campaign, Eilperin with the McCain campaign; Barnes reported from Washington. Staff writer Christian Davenport in Fairfax County contributed to this report.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Melina Mara -- The Washington Post; In Scranton, Pa., John McCain seized on an Obama remark about not being a "coal booster." "My friends, I've been a coal booster," McCain said.
IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; In Cleveland, Barack Obama chuckled when rain came down after he mentioned Vice President Cheney. "Sunshine is on the way," Obama said.
IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Barack Obama talks to Browns fans as he shakes hands after his speech in Cleveland. The Democratic candidate also appeared in Cincinnati and Columbus.
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The Washington Post
November 3, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
It's Well Past 3 a.m. Do You Remember the Election's Best Ads?
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 1025 words
Every two years, The Fix picks some of the best (and worst) television ads from the election season. (For the full results, you'll need to check The Fix -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/thefix -- later this week, but a little sneak peek couldn't hurt anyone, right?)
Here are a few of our favorites from the presidential candidates:
· Barack Obama, "Our Moment is Now." Borrowing footage from Obama's speech at the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Dinner late last year the ad effectively captured the idea of the senator's campaign as a movement. "America, our moment is now," Obama says in the ad as music rises and the crowd cheers. Powerful stuff.
· Hillary Rodham Clinton, "3 a.m." By far the most talked-about ad in the Democratic primary race, the ringing-phone commercial focused on the issue of crisis management and framed the choice between the experienced and steady hand of Clinton and the untested Obama. Unfortunately for Clinton, the ad was too little, too late.
· John McCain, "Celebrity." It's hard to argue that the daring ad, which sought to draw comparisons between Obama and celebrities such as Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, didn't work. Using images of the massive crowd Obama drew in Berlin during his midsummer European tour, McCain's campaign turned what could have been a strength for their Democratic opponent into a weakness. A brilliant piece of political jujitsu.
· Bill Richardson, "Job Interview." Give the New Mexico governor this: He's not afraid to take chances. Surrounded by better-known candidates in the Democratic primary campaign, Richardson played the role of a job interviewee; the series of ads made the point, in a humorous way, that he has a lengthy résumé and record of accomplishments. A good twist on the traditional biographical ad.
· Mike Huckabee, "Chuck Norris Approved." The breakout star of the Republican primaries (He runs marathons! He plays the bass guitar!) topped himself with this spot featuring the action star. Best line? "Chuck Norris doesn't endorse; he tells America how it's gonna be."
Murtha, Blindsided and Scrambling
Is Jack Murtha in trouble? He is sure acting like it.
The veteran House Democrat got into hot water last month when he suggested that Barack Obama may underperform in his western Pennsylvania district because it's a "racist area." Now he's pushing the political equivalent of the panic button, by calling in the Clintons to campaign for him.
Bill Clinton and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton recorded last-minute robocalls for Murtha. And the former president will headline a rally today in Murtha's home town of Johnstown, before heading to Wilkes-Barre to help out another embattled senior Democrat, Rep. Paul Kanjorski.
Hillary Clinton was among the first to answer the SOS sent out by Murtha, cutting a $5,000 check from her HillPAC to the incumbent's campaign. All told, Murtha raised $917,000 in a 12-day period ending Saturday, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. The overwhelming majority of contributions came from the political action committees of fellow Democrats, but a few cut checks from their personal bank accounts, such as the $2,300 from Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.). Elsie Pascrell, wife of Rep. William Pascrell (D-N.J.), gave Murtha $1,000 from her personal funds.
Murtha, 76, is a decorated Vietnam War veteran who chairs the House Appropriations subcommittee on defense. One of his party's most prominent voices on military issues, he became an unlikely liberal darling when he turned against the Iraq war.
But the 17-term lawmaker is also a typical previously "safe" incumbent, utterly unprepared for the backlash over his "racist" remark. It earned him a parody on "Saturday Night Live," and Republicans promoted it as a Democratic version of conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann's infamous anti-Obama rant on MSNBC.
A late-October survey by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review showed Murtha barely leading his aggressive and well-funded Republican opponent, Bill Russell.
"I was blindsided this time. It was my own fault. I take full responsibility, and I'm worried that I waited too long to get people activated," Murtha, 76, told volunteers at his campaign headquarters last week, according to the Associated Press.
A Chance for Extra Innings
For those of you already suffering withdrawal symptoms with Election Day just around the corner, never fear. Your fix -- pun intended -- may come from Georgia.
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) is locked in a tight battle with former state representative Jim Martin (D), a race that many insiders suspect could determine whether Democrats reach their goal of a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats. The Peach State requires a true majority of at least 50.1 percent of the vote to win, and Libertarian Allen Buckley has been taking 2 to 7 percent of the vote in public polling over the past week. Chambliss has been ahead in almost every poll, but is mired in the mid- to upper 40s.
With former congressman Bob Barr (Ga.) on the Georgia ballot as the Libertarian nominee for president, some Republicans fear that Buckley could prevent Chambliss from getting to the magic number.
A runoff between the two top vote-getters would be held Dec. 2, setting up a month-long battle that would draw waves of tested (and worn-out) campaign operatives and millions of dollars in contributions.
"Boy, oh, boy," Charles Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said at the thought to reporters last week. Asked how much money he thought would flood Georgia under such a scenario, Schumer said simply, "A lot."
Republicans privately suggest Chambliss would have the upper hand in a special because the expected large African American turnout for the historical significance of Obama's campaign would be hard to replicate a month later, in a race without Obama at the top of the ticket.
Staff writer Paul Kane contributed to this column.
1 DAY: It's (almost) here! After all the waiting and anticipating, Election Day 2008 arrives in less than 24 hours. Make sure to get out and vote.
1,464 DAYS: Let the countdown to 2012 begin! We're fewer than 1,500 days away from Nov. 6, 2012.
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November 3, 2008 Monday 12:38 PM EST
Cheney's Parting Gift
BYLINE: Dan Froomkin, Special to washingtonpost.com, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 4181 words
HIGHLIGHT: President Bush is hiding from public view until the election is over -- and for good reason. But Vice President Cheney briefly emerged from the shadows on Saturday to praise the McCain-Palin ticket. And Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama quickly brandished Cheney's appearance like a cudgel.
President Bush is hiding from public view until the election is over -- and for good reason. But Vice President Cheney briefly emerged from the shadows on Saturday to praise the McCain-Palin ticket. And Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama quickly brandished Cheney's appearance like a cudgel.
"John McCain's latest endorsement?" asks a rapidly-prepared Obama campaign ad. Up pops Cheney, proclaiming: "I'm delighted to support John McCain, and I'm pleased that he has chosen a running mate with executive talent, toughness, and common sense, our next vice president, Sarah Palin."
Cheney was speaking at a "victory rally" in a high school in Laramie, Wyoming, on Saturday. "[I]n three days, we'll choose a new steward for the Presidency, and begin a new chapter in our history," Cheney said. "It's the biggest decision that we make together as Americans, a lot turns on the outcome. I believe the right leader for this moment in history is Senator John McCain."
Jim Provance and Tom Troy write in the Toledo Blade that Obama mentioned Cheney on the stump as well: "'President Bush is sitting out the last few days before the election,' [Obama] said in Columbus. 'But yesterday, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location.
"'Don't need to boo. You just need to vote,' he said in response to the crowd's reaction.
"'Dick Cheney came out, and he hit the campaign trail, and he said, and I quote, that he is "delighted" to support John McCain,' Mr. Obama said. 'You've never seen Dick Cheney delighted before, but he is. That's kind of hard to picture. So, I would like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement, because he really earned it.
"'Here's my question to you, Ohio,' he said. 'Do you think Dick Cheney is delighted to support John McCain because he thinks John McCain is going to bring change, because he thinks that somehow John McCain is really going to shake things up, get rid of the lobbyists, and Haliburton, and the old boys club in Washington? Ohio, we know better.'"
Shailagh Murray, Juliet Eilperin and Robert Barnes write in The Washington Post: "When he was repeating his lines later in Cleveland, rain started to fall.
"'You notice what happened when I started talking about Dick Cheney,' Obama said with a chuckle. 'But a new day is dawning. Sunshine is on the way.'"
The AFP reports from an Obama rally in Pueblo, Colo.: "The vice president made the endorsement because he 'knows that with John McCain you get a two-fer: George Bush's economic policy and Dick Cheney's foreign policy,' Obama said."
Ewen MacAskill writes for the Guardian that Cheney's "endorsement may help McCain among loyal Republicans, but not with Americans disenchanted with the Bush-Cheney administration, or among independents angry over the stewardship of the past eight years. . . .
"Cheney had announced his endorsement for McCain before, but, like Bush, had been largely absent from the campaign trail during the past two months. His decision to participate in the Laramie rally at the weekend was prompted partly by a desire to speak on behalf of Republican congressional candidates and to deliver what amounted to an emotional look back on his career. He will retire from politics on inauguration day, January 20."
Pollsters don't ask about Cheney very often, but when they do, his numbers tend to be even worse than Bush's.
Sheryl Gay Stolberg wrote for the New York Times on Friday: "With Mr. Bush's job approval ratings at historic lows, political analysts have long said Republican candidates simply do not want to be seen with him. But now, with the election just days away, it seems that Republican candidates do not want Mr. Bush to be seen, period.
"'One of McCain's biggest challenges has been how to deal with Bush, and he never quite got it right,' said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who ran Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign. 'Now, the best thing is silence.'
"So the president has temporarily dropped out of sight. Until recently, Mr. Bush was giving talks about the battered economy on nearly a daily basis, prompting some Republicans to grumble privately that so much presidential face time was hurting their election chances. This week, Mr. Bush stepped back, holding just four public events, none with real policy implications. . . .
"Joe Lockhart, a former Clinton press secretary, said Mr. Bush's absence from the public stage, though brief, had consequences. 'This has an impact,' Mr. Lockhart said. 'The world marches on; we're in an economic crisis. We have tensions at home and abroad, yet I think if you walk down the street and ask people, "Has the president already left?" you'd have a lot of people saying, "Yeah, I think so."'"
As for the election itself, Stolberg writes: "If the past is any guide, Mr. Bush will be matter-of-fact about the result. At [a celebration last week in honor of the 150th birthday of Theodore Roosevelt], the president 'seemed sort of fatalistic' about Mr. McCain's chances and his own place in history, said Representative Peter King, Republican of New York, who was there. Mr. King said his wife grew emotional, telling the president how much she would miss him. Mr. Bush did not grow emotional in return.
"'He just said, "Yeah, yeah," -- he seemed like, what happens, happens,' Mr. King said. 'I always feel that he thinks it's his job to keep everybody's spirits up.'"
Indeed, as unlikely as it seems, Bush's aides insist the president isn't showing any signs of despair.
Dan Eggen writes in The Washington Post: [T]he economy is melting down, his own party has shunned him and Tuesday's election is shaping up as a searing rebuke to his eight years in office.
"Yet according to allies inside and outside the White House, Bush's mood remains buoyant and his attention is focused on the global financial collapse. In private meetings with business leaders, Bush has made a point of saying that he is happy the crisis happened on his watch so the next president and a new economic team do not have to grapple with it."
Some aides are evidently in a different state of denial. Writes Eggen: "Others inside and outside the administration, however, say the upbeat talk masks disappointment and frustration among many White House staffers, who believe Bush's reputation has been unfairly maligned for a series of calamities -- from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to the financial crisis -- that were beyond his control and which he handled well. GOP nominee John McCain's escalating attacks on Bush's tenure have added to irritation, these people said.
"'Everybody kind of wanted to spend the last 100-plus days doing some legacy things, and the financial crisis has thrown a wrench into that,' said one prominent Republican who regularly talks with senior White House officials.
"'You have a combination of no legacy stuff, a horrible economic mess and the likelihood that Obama is going to win,' this person added. 'There is a real sadness there.'"
Richard Wolffe and Holly Bailey write for Newsweek that "those who know the president well say he has withstood the attacks with characteristic equanimity. Bush has never been one to torture himself with doubt or punish himself with what-ifs. . . .
"The opinion of the American people matters to him, and close friends and aides say he is not deaf to the fact that he has become an object of ridicule. But they say he also remains unshakably convinced history will see his decisions, on Iraq especially, as the right ones. The same air of self-confident resolve--reassuring to some, maddening to others--that allowed Bush to claim, during the 2004 campaign, that he could not name a single mistake he had made as president, now girds him in his final, difficult and somewhat lonely months in the White House."
As Wolffe and Bailey note: "Bush, whose poll numbers now hover in the 20s, will leave office in January with perhaps the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. Bush bashing is nearly as popular among Republicans as it is among Democrats."
So how does he maintain the bubble? "As his presidency winds down, Bush has seeded his calendar with . . . informal, non confrontational events in which he can showcase his softer personal side before appreciative audiences who are proud, even thrilled, to be in the presence of the president. Outside the White House, they are not easy to find."
And then there's this: "Some Bush aides privately express relief that political reporters, preoccupied with the campaign, no longer bother to scrutinize the president's every move and misstep."
Wolffe and Bailey also have more backstory about the White House's hurt feelings over Bush getting the bum's rush at the Republican convention in September. But a "senior McCain adviser" tells them that with a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast, "[t]he last thing this party needed was for people to be reminded of every dumb mistake this administration made with Katrina." As for hurt feelings: "Bush understands the political environment we're in," the adviser says. "Or, hell, maybe he doesn't."
Dan Eggen writes in The Washington Post about more bubble-preservation tactics: "With less than three months left in the Bush administration, the president's schedule in recent weeks has been full of fond farewells -- from last visits with foreign leaders to get-togethers with those who have worked for him over the past eight years.
"Thursday was a good example. Bush went to Quantico, Va., to attend his last graduation ceremony at the FBI Academy, then stopped off to bid adieu to the military squadron responsible for maintaining and operating presidential helicopters."
His corpse isn't cold yet, but the devastating looks back at Bush's legacy are starting to pour in.
The British newspaper, the Guardian, asked seven American authors to reflect on the Bush era. Their essays are scathing.
Tobias Wolf writes about get-togethers with friends: "When we meet for dinner we do our best to take up other subjects - books, gossip, movies, our children - but then, like the addicts we've become, we sneak back to the drug of outrage, shooting up the latest barefaced lie and squalid revelation, not forgetting to list yet again the national and global catastrophes brought about by the incompetence, hypocrisy, muddleheadedness, venality, truculence, mendacity, callousness, zealotry, machismo, lawlessness, cynicism, wishful thinking, and occasional downright evil of the administration of George W Bush. Our economy is in freefall, our public school system a disgrace, our military exhausted, the wounded and traumatised dying of neglect, yea, the very earth groaning for relief - and he's optimistic! Yessiree! Looking forward to it! Leaning toward us over the podium with that exasperated little squint and that impatient, dentist-drill voice, utterly at a loss as to how he got saddled with a nation of such gloomy Guses and crybabies.
"Eddying around our own indignation again and again, as if caught in some Bermuda Triangle of complaint, we are unable not to remind each other of the fatal character of George Bush's incomprehension, the thousands upon thousands who have died by his blithe actions and inactions, and his inability to understand at any level - political, moral, emotional - the terrible damage he has done, this man whose idea of sharing in the grief of parents who've lost a son or daughter in Iraq is to give up playing golf! If he really did.
"There - I've stepped in the trap again. I can't help it. And for many of us that has been a defining condition of life in George W Bush's reign, this unanswerable need to register anew and aloud our shock and dismay, indeed our disbelief, at finding him at the wheel as we wake each morning."
Siri Hustvedt writes: "For years, Americans have been listening to a president who has essentially cut the world in two. We are 'the protectors of freedom' fighting the 'evil-doers' who 'hate freedom'. . . .
"Playing on the age-old fear of malignant outsiders and foreigners, both those residing on American soil and elsewhere, the administration successfully created an atmosphere of absolutism after 11 September 2001. The exhortation 'If you're not with us, you're with the terrorists' is a form of political speech that makes dialogue impossible. There is no legitimate response because anyone who counters with another thought has already been lumped with an inhuman enemy. In psychiatric parlance, rigid polarities like those the President has made time and again are regarded as pathological: 'splitting'. The patient is unable to tolerate ambiguity and insists on viewing the people in his life through an 'all good' or 'all bad' lens. Bush and his cohorts have been masterful splitters, employing a language that gives no room for exchange and necessarily distorts reality, which, unfortunately, is usually murky. This kind of speech does not recognise an interlocutor, a real human other. It is speech without empathy, and it is startlingly similar to the rhetoric of the Muslim radicals who spew venom on the West and 'the enemies of Islam'."
Walter Mosley writes: "Bush, along with his cronies - Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice and Rove - received the strongest hand that could be dealt a sitting president and squandered the potential for true personal, party, national and international advancement. After the World Trade Centre disaster we (Americans) had the sympathy and support of much of the globe on our side. But instead of capitalising on this largesse we declared war on the world and upon our own people - especially the poor. . . .
"Our soldiers have been killed and maimed, scarred physically and psychologically. Most have seen no remuneration and their homeland is no safer or any more secure.
"Bush has done many things wrong. Sometimes these transgressions have hurt us but even when we are wounded we learn. We now have a glimmer of understanding why so much of the world hates us and why so many others have disdain for our archaic sense of pride and vacuous moral authority."
Aleksandar Hemon writes: "I am no historian but it is my guess that the Bush regime would be in the running for the worst elected government in the history of Western civilisation. The score sheet is catastrophic: American foreign policy and international prestige are in tatters; the deficit and the national debt are reaching Zimbabwean proportions; states are impoverished and national infrastructure is falling apart; the practices of democracy have been so devalued that a militant bimbo is a viable vice-presidential candidate, while race-baiting is acceptable campaign practice. What to say of the destruction of New Orleans and the collapse of financial markets, neither of which the Bush court seemed particularly interested in until it was too late? Nothing Bush and his administration handled has remained undamaged, no stone misturned, all children left behind to forage through the debris in the aftermath of the past eight years."
Rick Moody writes: "The Ownership Society! That was the name for this second term of Bush's America, and it's logical to assume Bush didn't come up with the coinage himself, because how could he have? He has trouble getting through a simple sentence. Probably some staffer, gifted with ad speak, came up with it, coining what was already de facto policy, the notion that the government needs to remove itself entirely from the business of regulation and owning industries, leaving the oversight of corporate capital - as well as derivatives, packaged mortgages, and so on - to an ill-equipped marketplace.
"What the Ownership Society came to feel like to the overwhelming majority of Americans was feudalism. The modern return of the robber barons. No backstop in the case of catastrophic illness. No backstop in case of corporate malfeasance. No backstop in the case of a despoiled natural environment. No backstop in the case of cascading corporate bankruptcies. The wealthy and the large corporations, now largely unregulated, were free to do as they wished in most if not all areas, in order to increase the bounteous riches of their executives."
Edmund White writes: "Perhaps the most depressing moment in the last eight years was Bush's re-election. As a teacher, I've long lamented the dumbing down of America; now I was tempted to see our educational failure as a plot to keep the electorate stupid and gullible. In America, a tiny elite receives a rigorous education and the rest of the population is kept in darkest ignorance, just as a small percentage of our youngsters constitute Olympic champion athletes and the rest of the population is grotesquely obese: a strange idea of democracy. I was prepared to believe that Dubya's first election had been a mistake or a cheat, but the idea that the voters could re-elect him was too grim to contemplate."
Joseph L. Galloway writes in his McClatchy Newspapers opinion column: "They played on our fears like a mighty Wurlitzer Organ, frightening us with lies into an unnecessary war in Iraq. Frightening us into re-electing George Bush, even after we knew that he was anything but presidential, anything but intelligent, anything but a worthy, effective leader.
"They frightened us so badly that we voluntarily surrendered the precious rights that a million American soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, Coast Guardsmen and others bought for us with their lives during two centuries of freedom and democracy.
"They used fear to violate international law, to torture and imprison thousands of suspected enemies without charges or trials. They used fear and invoked national security to suspend the right of habeas corpus, the foundation of our freedoms.
"For these and far too many other sins and transgressions to list in so short a space as this, we the people have every right, and perhaps a duty, to cast them aside, and with them their only hope of avoiding justice and judgment -- John McCain, who voted with them 90 percent of the time."
Deborah Solomon interviews economist James Galbraith for the New York Times Magazine.
Galbraith: "Reagan's economists worshiped the market, but Bush didn't worship the market. Bush simply turned over regulatory authority to his friends. It enabled all the shady operators and card sharks in the system to come to dominate how we finance."
Solomon: "So you claim in your recent book, 'The Predator State,' but will President Bush actually be leaving Washington a richer man?"
Galbraith: "Presidents don't make money in office; they do so afterward. In his case, I hope he won't. Maybe his friends will abandon him."
Nicholas D. Kristof writes in his New York Times opinion column: "Mr. Bush's presidency imploded not because of any personal corruption or venality, but largely because he wrenched the United States out of the international community. His cowboy diplomacy 'defriended' the United States. He turned a superpower into a rogue country. Instead of isolating North Korea and Iran, he isolated us -- and undermined his own ability to achieve his aims.
"So here's the top priority for President Barack Obama or President John McCain: We must rejoin the world. . . .
"The new president should also start a Truth Commission to investigate torture and other abuses during the 'war on terror.' This should not be a bipartisan panel but a nonpartisan one, dominated by retired generals and intelligence figures like Brent Scowcroft or Colin Powell."
Marc and Craig Kielburger write in an opinion piece for the Toronto Star: "The current economic meltdown, a fumbled response to Hurricane Katrina and a banner reading 'Mission Accomplished' are but a few of the things that will make up Bush's legacy. But it can be argued that through his ineptitude, Bush has shaken the electorate out of their apathetic daze, and in doing so, strengthened democracy in the United States.
"How's that for irony?"
The New York Times op-ed page asked six writers to reflect on what they have most admired about Bush.
Semi-official Bush biographer Robert Draper calls him loveable and loyal: "When the vault of the 43rd presidency is sealed, it will include, among many things, evidence of President Bush's virtue."
Former press secretary Ari Fleischer writes: "I'll miss President Bush's moral clarity. The president's critics hated his willingness to label things right or wrong, and the press used to bang me around for it, but history will show how right he was."
Bushisms chronicler Jacob Weisberg writes: "In the face of defeat, Mr. Bush remains unbowed by grammar. You've got to admire that, kind of."
Turncoat former press secretary Scott McClellan writes: "While he did not always choose wisely in his efforts to advance human dignity, his motives were genuine. And in those somber moments when he visited wounded troops or families of those who'd made the ultimate sacrifice, I saw -- ever so briefly -- a glimmer of self-doubt."
Joan Lowy writes for the Associated Press: "A judge has ordered the Justice Department to produce White House memos that provide the legal basis for the Bush administration's post-Sept. 11 warrantless wiretapping program.
"U.S. District Judge Henry Kennedy Jr. signed an order Friday requiring the department to produce the memos by the White House legal counsel's office by Nov. 17. He said he will review the memos in private to determine if any information can be released publicly without violating attorney-client privilege or jeopardizing national security.
"Kennedy issued his order in response to lawsuits by civil liberties groups in 2005 after news reports disclosed the wiretapping.
"The department had argued that the memos were protected attorney-client communications and contain classified information. . . .
"'We think just as a common sense matter the legal theories for the president's wiretap programs cannot be classified and should be available to the public,' said Marc Rotenberg, president of the Electronic Privacy Information Center, one of the groups seeking the memos.
"'It's an important decision because up to this point the judge has relied on the government's assertion that it has done everything properly under the law and that it has disclosed everything it needs to disclose,' Rotenberg said Saturday."
Jesse J. Holland writes for the Associated Press: "A group suing Dick Cheney to preserve a wide range of records from his time as vice president can depose one of his top aides, federal courts ruled Friday.
"U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly ordered Claire O'Donnell, the vice president's deputy chief of staff, to make herself available to lawyers from a private group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, known as CREW.
"CREW is suing Cheney and the Executive Office of the President in an effort to ensure that no presidential records are destroyed or handled in a way that makes them unavailable to the public.
"The group had wanted to depose Cheney's chief of staff, David Addington, but a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia said deposing Addington 'would constitute an 'unwarranted impairment' of the functioning of' the vice president's office."
Deborah Zabarenko writes for Reuters: "As the U.S. presidential candidates sprint toward the finish line, the Bush administration is also sprinting to enact environmental policy changes before leaving power.
"Whether it's getting wolves off the Endangered Species List, allowing power plants to operate near national parks, loosening regulations for factory farm waste or making it easier for mountaintop coal-mining operations, these proposed changes have found little favor with environmental groups. . . .
"Even some free-market organizations have joined conservation groups to urge a moratorium on last-minute rules proposed by the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency, among others."
Bryan Walsh writes for Time: "There is no shortage of people eager to see President George W. Bush hit the road -- his approval rating hovers at 25% -- but few will celebrate the end of the Bush era more than environmentalists.
"From the green perspective, the Bush Administration has been an unmitigated disaster, with sins of omission (the failure to do anything significant on climate change) and commission (stealthy attempts to weaken environmental protections such as the Endangered Species Act). . . .
"It doesn't help that President Bush seems bent on dismantling as many of the nation's environmental regulations as possible before his time runs out."
San Francisco Chronicle columnists Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross remind us of that city's all-important referendum tomorrow: "Proposition R, the proposed renaming of a sewage-treatment plant after George W. Bush. . . .
"'The potential irony here is that this is a modern facility that protects the ocean and the environment every day,' [Public Utilities Commission spokesman Tony] Winnicker said, 'and I'm not sure that's the right legacy for President Bush.'
"No, but there would be no mistaking the smell."
Tom Toles on Bush the uniter, Garry Trudeau on the majesty of the office, Ben Sargent on the end of the ride, and Marshall Ramsey on Bush's lack of concern.
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November 3, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Critiquing the Press
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3214 words
HIGHLIGHT: Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
He was online Monday, Nov. 3 at noon ET to take your questions and comments.
The transcript follows.
Media Backtalk transcripts archive
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Bluffton, S.C.: Your Media Notes blog today was spot-on, but I don't understand why you waited until the day before the election to point out this kind of blatant favoritism toward Obama that has existed for the whole year. Starting on Wednesday I have to wonder what these chat shows -- not to mention all sorts of pundits, columnists, etc. -- will do for Topic A the next four years when they can't find any Republicans to bash.
washingtonpost.com: Softer Shows Hard on McCain (Post, Nov. 3)
Howard Kurtz: Well, most of my attention has been on the political shows, as with last week's column on the parallel universes inhabited by Sean Hannity and Keith Olbermann. (Nice take on that in Sunday's NYT; I liked it better the first time.) So while I've repeatedly talked about the impact of The View and Letterman on my show (and played the clips), this was the first chance I had to write about it.
The View ladies sounded a tad defensive discussing the column this morning. Whoopi even went negative on me! But it was smart for them to tackle it head-on.
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Fort Myers, Fla.: Thanks for quantifying what we already knew: The decline of the political process, led by the increasingly irrelevant Letterman and those harpies on "The View."
Howard Kurtz: But they're not irrelevant at all. They draw big audiences. Letterman's audience dwarfs that of most cable shows, and The View has been a pop culture phenomenon. I have no problem with them, or Ellen, sounding off about politics. They're all entitled to their opinions. But the pattern in which a number of these shows have been rough on McCain and easy on Obama is unmistakable.
Whoopi Goldberg, by the way, made the point this morning that Obama's he's-so-sexy interview came in the spring, while McCain's your-ads-are-lies encounter came in the general election, and that Obama has refused to come back. I quoted the show's executive producer as making that very argument.
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Hampton Cove, Ala.: Maureen Dowd gets kicked off McCain plane, it makes front-page news; three reporters get kicked off Obama plane and they are called pawns of radical right-wing newspapers. Joe the Plumber gets destroyed by government employees and he is called a fraud; Obama's aunt is living illegally in government housing, illegally collecting government benefits, illegally donating to Obama, and The Washington Post portrays it as a violation of her rights as a citizen (which she is not). A British newspaper broke the story, yet the The Washington Post blames Republicans. I never have seen such bias in my life. How can the public trust the media when it has turned a blind to any transgression by the Obama campaign?
Howard Kurtz: Your examples are wayyy off. As the guy who was first to report that the McCain camp had barried Maureen Dowd from its plane, I gave it one sentence in a column; no one put it on the front page. My story last week on the Obama campaign kicking off reporters for the Washington Times, New York Post and Dallas Morning News ran as an item in the Trail column. And no one described their employers as radical right-wing newspapers; I simply quoted the editor of the Washington Times as saying the Obama campaign did this three days after his paper's editorial page endorsed McCain, and the other two newspapers recently endorsed McCain as well. The Obama camp claims it was a space issue.
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Medina, Ohio: Why any person would care what Whoopi thinks is beyond me. That people even think "The View" has any influence is just plain dumb.
Howard Kurtz: Well, then put me in the dummy category. Shows like The View are important because they reach a different (and in this case heavily female) audience that isn't necessarily watching Meet the Press, Hardball and O'Reilly. They also allow the candidates to show a lighter side of themselves. And I guess Obama and McCain must be dummies because they took the time to appear on the show (and Michelle and Cindy as well). And Sarah Palin must be in that camp as well, since she was happy to have Elizabeth Hasselbeck join her on the campaign trail.
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Seattle: One of the problems with Wolf Blitzer subsuming your show into his is that my TiVo doesn't catch it. I got the last part, though. In the end of all this, could you answer the question of which media really matters? Do the TV networks influence more voters than the cable 24-hour jobs? Does a 30-minute infomercial hit better than robocalls? And what should we think about newspapers?
Howard Kurtz: Well, we'll be back next week. You know, it's hard to rank one form of media over another. Blogs, talk radio, TV ads, robocalls, YouTube, they all play into the mix. But I think it's fair to say that much-maligned newspapers still do the deepest and most extensive reporting on political campaigns (or any other subject, for that matter), and that TV shows, Web sites and just about everyone else often feed off the facts they uncover.
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Pittsburgh: Why haven't the mainstream media pressed Sarah Palin harder on releasing any of her medical records yet, as she promised? Or is this essentially an admission that Palin will lose, so why bother?
Howard Kurtz: The press has raised this several times, and the Palin campaign promised it would do so. Then, on Friday, Palin aides said they needed more time. (How much more? Till Nov. 5?) Since we don't have subpoena power and the election is tomorrow, there's not much more we can do.
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Laurel, Md.: Have there been any particularly nasty or unfair weekend-before ads? The kind the candidate hopes only reach the desired audience before they can be dissected?
Howard Kurtz: Not really, at least not from the campaigns. Obama put up a last-minute ad Sunday that touted his endorsements by Colin Powell and Warren Buffett and then said McCain had been endorsed by...Dick Cheney. There was even a sound bite from Cheney. No distortion there. But pretty amazing that a vice president, to no one's surprise, backs the nominee of his own party, and it winds up in a commercial for the other side.
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Prescott, Ariz.: Could you thank your buddies at the Sunday talk shows for not having any women guests on their programs the weekend before the presidential election? I am glad to see that the traditional media feels (like most of flyover country) that a woman's place is in the home.
Howard Kurtz: I didn't see the shows as I was in New York doing CNN. But two of my guests were Gloria Borger and the Huffington Post's Rachel Sklar, and then I was on a panel with Borger and Campbell Brown. So you can't say that about Late Edition. And come to think of it, Donna Brazile was on This Week. I haven't had a chance to check the others.
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Kettering, Ohio: Good afternoon Howard. Did you see the Michael Malone post on ABCNews.com? He took the media to task for what he considered over-the-top bias toward Obama. Is this the rant of a conservative-leaning reporter, or the real deal?
Howard Kurtz: Michael Malone, according to his bio, is an author and Silicon Valley technology writer who has also contributed to the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, Fortune and the New York Times. So he's an opinion guy, but also someone whose work has appeared in some fairly prestigious outlets.
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Montreal: Hi Howard, as the campaign comes to a close, are there any stories that you feel the media, in general, did an especially good job on? And the reverse? Thanks for chatting, it's always a pleasure.
Howard Kurtz: We were all over that lipstick on a pig thing. And the Paris Hilton ad? We ruled on that one. McCain's seven houses? Edwards's $400 haircut? Hillary's laugh? Palin's wardrobe? It was hard to beat our intrepid coverage.
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Burke, Va.: Your column about media coverage makes the typical invalid assumption that the two sides are roughly equal. There has been nothing on Democratic side on par with a vice-presidential candidate who, when pressed to name a newspaper or magazine that she reads, cannot do so. Or a candidate who claims that the proximity of her state to Russia (and Putin's rearin' head) gives her some kind of foreign affairs expertise. Or spending $150,000 on clothes while posturing as Ms. Hockey Mom -- $150,00! John Edwards is still being lampooned by Fox for his $400 haircut.
Howard Kurtz: I don't quite see the connection between the obvious difficulties Sarah Palin has faced -- and which I've written about extensively -- and the way McCain and Obama have been treated on some of these entertainment shows. Even if you believe that Palin's inexperience is so glaring that it justified the way Letterman grilled McCain about his running mate, is there no issue involving Obama that Dave could have pressed equally hard when Barack was on?
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Alabama: You did a good job of debunking some of the charges made by your chatter from Alabama, but failed to address the coverage The Post gave to the illegal release of information about Obama's aunt compared to zero coverage about the search by government officilas into Joe the plumber's files. Care to expand upon your comments?
Howard Kurtz: The Post should have run something on the Wurzelbacher search. Here's the latest:
Toledo Police have confirmed that a TPD records clerk is accused of performing an illegal search of information related to 'Joe the Plumber.'
Julie McConnell, has been charged with Gross Misconduct for allegedly making an improper inquiry into a state database in search of information pertaining to Samuel Wurzelbacher on Oct. 16.
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Boston: I enjoyed the Rachel Maddow interview of Obama and thought of the "Meet the Press" of my childhood with several distinct voices asking the questions. Why not have a "Meet the Press" with Maddow, Tucker Carlson and David Gregory, for instance, so that the questions could come from left, right and center?
Howard Kurtz: You get all kinds of opinion on cable. Sunday morning shows ought to be a place where the moderator (or moderators) has no ideological point of view in attempting to interview guests, or at least tries as hard as humanly possible to keep personal opinions out of it.
The left-right combination pioneered on Crossfire still exists on such programs as Hannity & Colmes, but largely seems to have fallen out of favor. Viewers apparently like watching a host who agrees with them.
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Women on yesterday's talk shows: Michelle Norris was on "Meet The Press."
Howard Kurtz: Thanks. Looks like that questioner's survey was, shall we say, less than complete.
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Boston: In your column today you imply a double standard, and I am sure bot sides agree with you -- they just think it is the "other side" that is getting the good treatment while the media abuses their candidate. As an Obama supporter I see a lack of coverage on McCain's pal Keating and hardly a mention of most recent Palin ethics violation as some "you hate us" moment from the press. Do you think by this time both sides are a little crazy?
Howard Kurtz: The Washington Post ran a lenghty, front-page story on McCain's role in the Keating Five and how the episode changed him about two weeks ago. I'm not sure what you mean by Palin's latest ethics violation, but certainly there was plenty of coverage of the so-called Troopergate scandal (despite the report's release late on a Friday night). The other story, about charging the state of Alaska for taking her kids on trips, was reported by got overshadowed by the RNC's $150,000 shopping spree on her behalf.
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Chattanooga, Tenn.: Lumping "The Daily Show" in with the others is a bit of a stretch -- they lampoon everybody. If it's more fun to lampoon Republicans, it's not their fault. But I remember specifically they spoofed Obama as "the chosen One," just like our boy Milbank.
Howard Kurtz: I did NOT lump in the "Daily Show," which indeed pokes fun at everyone. But Jon Stewart's views are no secret. He said he was voting for Kerry four years ago, and did a very soft interview with Kerry in the final days. His interview with Obama last week was also quite friendly. But in fairness, Stewart has had McCain on close to a dozen times, and although they went at it about a year ago, Jon has certainly treated him with respect and given him a platform. He also had Bill Kristol on last week to make the case for McCain.
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Alexandria, Va.: One more woman on yesterday's shows: Mara Liasson on Fox News Sunday.
Howard Kurtz: I wonder what shows that person was watching.
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Midland, Mich.: Everyone's talking about McCain's QVC skit on "Saturday Night Live," but I loved the way they spoofed Olbermann. I admit to being in Obama's camp, and I've watched a lot (too much) of MSNBC. That 8 p.m. hour is getting kinda hard to take.
washingtonpost.com: "Countdown" With Keith Olbermann ("Saturday Night Live," Nov. 1)
Howard Kurtz: Ben Affleck's satire was devastating. Olbermann tells Time's Ana Marie Cox that he found a note from the actor saying:
""Keith - Remember, a) I didn't write this; b) it took years of study - fondly, Ben."
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Philadephia: These are entertainment shows, right? So, it's not as though the nightly news program is coming out slamming one side/endorsing the other (the news part of it, not the editorial part). Anyway, Bush is unpopular, to say the least, so he'd be the normal target of late-night jokes and commentary, but he's lying low so the target shifts to his party flag-bearer, who is McCain.
Also, McCain has selected running mate who has made it so that writers can be lazy and just pull up transcripts of her quotes, spit them out, and they're hilarious. With the way things are looking at this moment, the writers are going to have four years to kick around Obama and Biden. I for one am looking forward to seeing the writers have to work a bit harder to find a way to skewer our politicians than they've needed to in the past 20 years or more.
Howard Kurtz: On the comedy front, it's certainly true that it's easy to make McCain age jokes and Palin has been a godsend, not just to Tina Fey but to anyone who makes people laugh for a living. It's equally clear that the comedians haven't quite gotten a handle on Obama yet (although Jon Stewart has done some nice Messiah stuff). But I was largely focused on programs that have actually *interviewed* McCain and Obama as opposed to just poking fun at the candidates.
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Ames, Iowa: I would not argue that Obama has been treated better on some shows, but I agree with some of the comments on your story: There are consequences to constantly ridiculing the mainstream media to gain votes from your base. There are also consequences to running a nasty, "scary" negative campaign (as I sit here listening to the commercials on Rev. Wright -- yeah, McCain had no idea any group would run those and he can't do anything about them, not even a phone call -- and earlier, the "chicken button" commercials).
Howard Kurtz: Say what you want about McCain's campaign -- and I have chronicled its war on the press more extensively than anyone, and pointed out the distortions and falsehoods in some of its ads -- but John McCain lived up to his word that he would not make Jeremiah Wright an issue in this election. The truth is, he can't control whether some independent group drops a last-minute commercial about the reverend, any more than Obama can rein in left-leaning groups making ads. In fact, the law prohibits any cooperation between these groups and the campaigns.
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San Diego: Do you see the difference in the "soft media" coverage as a problem? If so, is the difference in the talk raido coverage a problem too?
Howard Kurtz: It's not a "problem" in that Ellen DeGeneres, David Letterman, Joy Behar, Elizabeth Hasselbeck and company can say whatever they want. They're not journalists and they don't have to adhere to any standard of balance. (The same goes for radio talk show hosts.) But I certainly think it's noteworthy that the tilt has been so sharply in Obama's direction, especially from people who don't primarily make their living yakking about politics.
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Santa Maria, Calif.: It should be extremely alarming that one of the candidates wishes to censor the media. Do the American people wish to elect a president that needs to censor news coverage and control his public image? We already know too little about Obama's actual beliefs and ideology, not to mention his associations, his resume, the gaps in his memoirs, and his experience or lack thereof -- and the more details that we come to know about him raise many more questions than answers.
I hope this media censorship causes outrage even among the media that supports this candidate. The job of the president is too important and there is too much at stake not to ask very tough questions. The American people have a right to know, it is the media's job to ask, and any candidate that does not welcome that should be denied access to the Oval Office.
Howard Kurtz: I'm not sure what censorship you're referring to. Perhaps you've read that some Democrats want to bring back the Fairness Doctrine? I haven't seen Obama talk about that and I doubt it's going anywhere. As for knowing "too litte" about Obama's policies and associations, the man has endured 22 months of saturation media coverage in the white-hot crucible of a presidential campaign. Perhaps you don't like his positions, and perhaps some outlets have been soft on him, but he has clearly been put through the American media wringer, participated in 25 televised debates, and somehow he's still leading.
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Fairfax, Va.: I keep reading stories about papers losing ad revenue and subscriptions. [apers becoming web-only, etc. Who is going to do the original reporting that blogs and cable news comment on if newspapers go out of business?
Howard Kurtz: The answer: No one. Obviously good journalism is practiced elsewhere, but newspapers are really the last line of defense for serious and sustained reporting, especially at the local level. So here's hoping they can figure out a way to not just stay in business but to thrive in the new media environment that is transforming the world we all live in.
Thanks for the chat, folks.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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November 2, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Vote For ( )
BYLINE: By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 10
LENGTH: 829 words
Here's what strikes me this election eve: I can't remember a presidential campaign that was so disconnected from the actual challenges of governing that will confront the winner the morning after. When this election campaign began two years ago, the big issue was how and for how long do we continue nation-building in Iraq. As the campaign comes to a close, the big issue is how and at what sacrifice do we do nation-building in America.
Unfortunately, you'd barely know that from the presidential debates. Watching them in the context of the meltdown of the financial system was like watching a game show where the two contestants were kept off-stage in a soundproof booth and brought out to address the audience without knowing the context.
Since the last debate, John McCain and Barack Obama have unveiled broad ideas about how to restore the nation's financial health. But they continue to suggest that this will be largely pain-free. McCain says giving everyone a tax cut will save the day; Obama tells us only the rich will have to pay to help us out of this hole. Neither is true.
We are all going to have to pay, because this meltdown comes in the context of what has been ''perhaps the greatest wealth transfer since the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1917,'' says Michael Mandelbaum, author of ''Democracy's Good Name.'' ''It is not a wealth transfer from rich to poor that the Bush administration will be remembered for. It is a wealth transfer from the future to the present.''
Never has one generation spent so much of its children's wealth in such a short period of time with so little to show for it as in the Bush years. Under George W. Bush, America has foisted onto future generations a huge financial burden to finance our current tax cuts, wars and now bailouts. Just paying off those debts will require significant sacrifices. But when you add the destruction of wealth that has taken place in the last two months in the markets, and the need for more bailouts, you understand why this is not going to be a painless recovery.
The Bush team leaves us with another debt -- one to Mother Nature. We have added tons more CO2 into the atmosphere these last eight years, without any mitigation effort. As a result, slowing down climate change in the next eight years is going to require even bigger changes and investments in how we use energy.
Given that Times columnists are not allowed to ''formally'' endorse candidates and given that the context of this election has changed so much from the policy positions the candidates started with, all I can suggest is that you vote for the candidate with these character traits:
First, we need a president who can speak English and deconstruct and navigate complex issues so Americans can make informed choices. We have paid an enormous price for having a president who could not explain and reassure us during this financial meltdown. We wasted a huge amount of time pretending that we could punish Wall Street without punishing Main Street -- when, in fact, they are intricately intertwined.
A major money market fund -- Reserve Primary -- failed in September because the extra interest it offered customers derived, in part, from the $785 million in high-yielding Lehman Brothers commercial paper and notes it was holding. Depositors who told their congressmen to just let that greedy Lehman Brothers fail were shocked to discover this meant that their own money market would be frozen. No, we don't need a president defending greed on Wall Street, but we do need one who can explain that we are all in the same boat, that a leak at one end can sink everyone and that while we must regulate, we don't want to kill risk-taking and the rewards that go with that -- which are essential to growing our economy.
Second, we need a president who can energize, inspire and hold the country together during what will be a very stressful recovery. We have to climb out of this financial crisis at a time when the baby boomers are about to retire and going to need their Social Security and eventually Medicare. We are all going to be paying the government more and getting less until we grow out of this hole.
Third, we need a president who can rally the world to our side. We cannot get out of this crisis unless China starts consuming more and unless Europe keeps lowering interest rates. Everyone is interconnected, and everyone is still looking to America to lead.
So, bottom line: Please do not vote for the candidate you most want to have a beer with (unless it's to get stone cold drunk so you don't have to think about this mess we're in). Vote for the person you'd most like at your side when you ask your bank manager for an extension on your mortgage.
Vote for the candidate you think has the smarts, temperament and inspirational capacity to unify the country and steer our ship through what could be the rockiest shoals our generation has ever known. Your kids will thank you.
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The New York Times
November 2, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Black Turnout May Hold Key
BYLINE: By SHAILA DEWAN and ROBBIE BROWN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; GEORGIA; Pg. 27
LENGTH: 421 words
DATELINE: ATLANTA
On Friday, Senator Barack Obama's campaign began broadcasting two commercials here, in a sign of its renewed hopes that Georgia could be truly competitive in this election.
It was a swift turnaround. The campaign initially had Georgia on its wish list, but just two months ago, it went off the air here and moved out some of its paid staff members. Senator John McCain's campaign, meanwhile, treated Georgia as an automatic win.
But then came the reports from early polling stations: people were waiting more than four hours in some places to cast their ballots, and 35 percent of them were black. By the time early voting closed on Friday, more than 1.7 million of Georgia's 5.6 million registered voters had cast their ballots, and many of them were in left-leaning urban counties in and around Atlanta, where support for Mr. Obama is at a fever pitch.
''I feel like this is the year out of every other year in history that Georgia could go for a Democrat,'' said Triniece Britt, a client relations manager at a mortgage company and an Obama supporter, who was waiting in a four-hour line to vote on Friday ''People are hungry for something different. People want change so bad that they'll wait as long it takes.''
Polls still show Mr. McCain leading. But what remains to be seen is the demographics of the turnout on Election Day. Analysts are not certain if it will be overwhelmingly white, or if it will more closely mirror the demographics of the electorate, which is 29 percent black, keeping black turnout high.
''If it's anything close to 30 percent in the end, that would give Obama a big chance,'' said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University.
Long lines at early polling stations have also raised concerns that the voting system is not equipped to handle an expected surge on Tuesday.
Matt Towery, a Republican political consultant and pollster, said he would not be surprised if the margin of victory in Georgia came down to 10,000 or 20,000 votes -- well within battleground range. Just six years ago, he noted, the state was controlled by Democrats, but lately the party's base has not turned out.
''Because Barack Obama is running, he has brought that Democratic voting base back out,'' Mr. Towery said. ''If Georgia votes at full strength, then it's a highly competitive state.''
He added, ''You cannot be the fastest-growing state in the nation for African-American population and be drifting to become a massively Republican red state.''
SHAILA DEWAN and ROBBIE BROWN
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November 2, 2008 Sunday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
In Florida, Organizing and Fighting for Every Last Vote
BYLINE: By DAMIEN CAVE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 29
LENGTH: 1304 words
DATELINE: ORLANDO, Fla.
Lew Oliver's McCain-Palin T-shirt advertised his intentions, and the woman in the S.U.V. gave him an opening. ''I'm undecided,'' said Nicole Ellington, 31, a paralegal with two young children. ''You have two minutes. Go.''
Mr. Oliver knew that her family leaned Republican because she was on his get-out-the-vote list, and he rapidly delivered a pitch honed over 22 years of volunteering for local campaigns. ''Wow, you're good,'' she said. And as she drove away, Mr. Oliver smiled with satisfaction.
But did he really win her over? Ms. Ellington had pointed to the ''Palin'' on his T-shirt and said, ''I'm worried about this one.''
''I don't know,'' Mr. Oliver said after giving it some thought. ''She may have been being polite.''
Mr. Oliver, 47, a real estate lawyer who walks and talks in bursts, is the kind of party regular who is not usually one to doubt. He has been the Orange County Republican Party chairman since 1999, and with his encyclopedic knowledge of the neighborhoods and demographics of Orlando, he built the grass-roots effort that pushed George W. Bush to victory here and statewide in 2000 and 2004.
But this year, Mr. Oliver said, the challenge is tougher. Part of it is the ''collapse of the economy of the Western world,'' he said. Part is the competition, a campaign by Senator Barack Obama that has poured more money and people into the state than Senator John McCain. Even the most seasoned Republicans now acknowledge that they face an uphill fight.
''This is as difficult an environment for Republicans as there's been since Watergate,'' said George LeMieux, the former campaign manager for Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican.
Mr. Oliver agrees. And like many Republicans trying in the final days to push their party to victory, he says he has found inspiration in Mr. McCain, the perseverant prisoner of war who came from behind to seize the Republican nomination. The current call to arms is simple: ''If anyone can pull it off, it's John McCain.''
The same could be said for Mr. Oliver. Even his counterparts in the local Democratic Party describe him as one of the best organizers in Florida, a tireless terrier of campaigns who has missed only four of the county party's meetings in 22 years.
Mr. Oliver claims to dislike politics, seeing it as a way to fulfill the civic duty that led his father and two brothers to the military. But he is single and admits that the Republican Party consumes much of his free time.
On Thursday, his day began at 9 a.m., calling his Orlando neighbors from a phone bank list he carries everywhere so he can reach voters during down times. By 10 a.m., he was inside a local TV news studio, where he debated the race with the local Democratic Party chairman.
On camera, Mr. Oliver emphasized that ''no one is giving up.'' He said that the polls were close in Florida and that slight movement could bring victory.
During a commercial break, though, he quoted Bill Clinton (''It's the economy, stupid'') and said, ''If I had a videotape of Barack Obama shooting someone, he'd still be up in the polls.''
What really frustrated him, he said, was that voters did not seem to be recognizing what he admired about John McCain: his pragmatism, his toughness, his proven willingness to buck his party and reach across the aisle on tough issues like immigration.
But lately, Mr. Oliver's task has become complicated as he finds himself competing with a burning fear voiced by some McCain supporters. It can be seen in the anti-Obama book at the McCain office in Altamonte Springs; or in Maitland, where someone posted a letter on the wall that said: ''This is the scariest election we as Christians have ever faced, and from the looks of the polls, the Christians aren't voting Christian values.''
Just a few feet away, a larger poster near an American flag stated: ''Obama -- too dangerous for our America.''
Mr. Oliver, when told about the messages, said they did not reflect the party's official position and would be taken down. At the Orlando headquarters, where he usually spends his time, no such language was visible.
But in an unscientific show of hands among 30 volunteers, more people said they were motivated by a fear of Mr. Obama than by a love of Mr. McCain or Gov. Sarah Palin. Such passions are double-edged: some party officials worry that the negative tone alienates independent voters; on the other hand, it has pushed volunteers to great lengths.
About half of the volunteers at the headquarters had come from outside Florida, representing at least eight states, including Alaska, Georgia and Texas. Many said they were volunteering for the first time, spending as much as $2,000 of their own money to try to keep the Democrats from winning.
Krista Parrett, 37, said she came from Syracuse to volunteer because she feared that an Obama victory would make the United States like Uzbekistan, a former Soviet state ruled with an iron fist, where she once lived. Marlene Heineman, 58, a flight attendant who had come to the office during a long layover, said she worried about who might be behind Mr. Obama's rapid rise to prominence.
''He has a lot of shady connections,'' Ms. Heineman said. ''He hasn't been forthcoming.''
Other interviews brought similar sentiments, though one volunteer, Michael Walzak, 46, a member of the county's Republican Executive Committee, said he was ''disappointed that so many people are that fearful.''
Mr. Oliver, for his part, has stayed focused on what he knows: how to win. At 3:30 p.m., he returned from his law office, speeding into the campaign headquarters in Nike running sneakers and jeans, with not just a McCain-Palin shirt but also a hat.
The operation had just shifted from asking voters whether they had received and sent in their absentee ballots to the get-out-the-vote effort.
This two-pronged emphasis, on absentee ballots and getting voters to the polls, has been the party's focus in Florida for decades. Mr. Oliver says that it works in part because Republicans tend to be less transient than Democrats, making them easier to reach, and because they have historically been more loyal to their party.
As an example, he said that 81 percent of registered Republicans in Orange County voted in 2004 compared with about 75 percent of Democrats.
To try to continue that tradition, Mr. Oliver grabbed a list of 181 addresses in Baldwin Park, an area of working professionals.
The first house he visited took him to James Sims, 50, who said he was happy to see fellow McCain supporters in the neighborhood. The second voter he encountered also promised to vote Republican. ''No matter how sick you are?'' Mr. Oliver said. ''Even if you have to drag yourself there on a wagon?''
''Yes,'' the woman said.
It was a well-honed pitch. In his 22 years, he said he had learned a few things about voter contact. First, knock and ring the doorbell. Second, step a few feet back to avoid looking threatening. And third, use humor. Introductions like ''Hi'' -- big smile -- ''we're not selling anything'' are usually effective.
Or at least they get the conversation going. What happens next, this year at least, seems more unpredictable. Just after Mr. Oliver said he had not yet found a house with Republicans who said they would vote for Barack Obama, he encountered two of them in a row.
Beth Moriarty said that her 62-year-old husband, for the first time in his life, was going to vote for a Democrat.
Patricia Millar, 50, a registered independent, also said that sheand her husband, Jeffery Bergenthal, a Republican, were not voting for Mr. McCain. A blue Obama sign fluttered in her lawn. She seemed unsure of how to break the news.
''We think he's a great guy,'' she said of Mr. McCain. ''We're just a little disappointed with the ticket this year.''
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LOAD-DATE: November 2, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: November 9, 2008
CORRECTION: A note last Sunday with an article about get-out-the-vote efforts in Florida's Orange County, along the Interstate 4 corridor, misstated Florida's vote in the 2000 presidential election in some editions. President Bush won by 537 votes statewide, not in Orange County alone.
GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Lew Oliver, chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County, Fla., going door to door. (PHOTOGRAPH BY JOSHUA LOTT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES) MAP: Map details the Interstate 4 corridor of in Florida.
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The New York Times
November 2, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
First Real Race In a Generation
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; NORTH CAROLINA; Pg. 26
LENGTH: 400 words
DATELINE: ROCKY MOUNT, N.C.
At a rally here with Michelle Obama the other day, little slips of paper were tucked into the windshields of cars in the parking lot. They announced a free breakfast, paid for by local Democrats, on behalf of Senator Barack Obama on Saturday, the last day of early voting.
The fliers were a small reminder of something big: the Obama organization in this state.
North Carolina has not seen a real presidential race for a generation. But in one of the biggest surprises of this long campaign season, Mr. Obama has pulled even in the polls with Senator John McCain.
Mr. Obama has more than twice as many offices, more than twice as many paid staff members and thousands more unpaid volunteers. He has outspent Mr. McCain more than eight to one on television advertising, although Mr. McCain has increased his spending in recent weeks.
Both campaigns have stepped up their face time here, with Mr. McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, appearing Saturday and Mr. Obama expected to be back on Monday.
A record number of people have voted early; twice as many were Democrats as Republicans.
''My people didn't always have the right to vote,'' said Joseph Scott, 40, who works in banking, as he stood in line in Greensboro for more than an hour to vote for Mr. Obama.
Blacks like Mr. Scott make up about 21 percent of registered voters, and the degree to which they turn out for Mr. Obama will be a critical piece of the puzzle.
But Mr. McCain's selection of Ms. Palin has inspired cultural conservatives. Her rallies are energetic; she had the country stars Gretchen Wilson in Asheville belting out ''I'm a Redneck Woman'' and Hank Williams Jr. in Elon singing his own ''McCain-Palin Tradition.''
Through rallies, commercials and automated calls, the McCain campaign casts Mr. Obama as a radical.
''He's a socialist,'' Bob Hartsock, 78, who works in real estate in Concord, said after a McCain rally there.
Working to Mr. Obama's advantage is an influx of new voters -- potentially more moderate -- and the mounting economic crisis.
Ruby Hill-Benjamin, 53, a registered nurse, was one of hundreds of people in an overflow room here shrieking for Mrs. Obama. She said she had voted for President Bush because she liked his faith initiative. But Mr. McCain is ''running on the past,'' she said, and she is inspired by the Obamas: ''They are speaking for all Americans.''
KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
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The New York Times
November 2, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Tuesday Night's Party Lines
BYLINE: By JAN HOFFMAN
SECTION: Section ST; Column 0; Style Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1231 words
THIS Tuesday night, as history of one sort or another is being made, where will you be watching election returns?
If you happen to be in Alaska, know that the doors of the Wasilla Multi-Use Sports Complex will be flung open at 3 p.m. for food, beer, wine and -- in between updates on giant televisions -- dancing to a new local rock band, Sarah and the Pit Bulls. Although this Civic Festival is ostensibly nonpartisan, it is billed on the Web as a ''victory celebration.''
At the same hour in Washington -- 7 p.m., East Coast time -- the doors to the New Bethel Baptist Church will be flung open for what the Rev. Walter E. Fauntroy, a former aide to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., calls a ''watch-night service,'' also replete with food and televisions (but minus the alcohol).
''I am cautiously optimistic that before the night is out,'' said Mr. Fauntroy, the church's pastor, ''I will experience what I do at weddings: someone singing, 'This is the moment.' ''
On the evening of Nov. 4, true believers from each party will gather at churches, meetings halls, block parties, bars and parks between Wasilla and Washington, anticipating a communal exaltation of historic dimension.
But for millions of others, it will be a night infused with body-quaking fear on a seismic scale, about the economy, employment, war. Conversations last week with quotidian voters -- as well as not-so-quotidian ones -- suggest that many people may want to gather less for a party than for a huddle, a support group. Republicans are hedging their bets. Democrats say they are wary, skeptical, superstitious even. Judging by them, and not the polls that favor Senator Barack Obama, if there's a donkey braying in the land, that would be Eeyore.
''I don't know anyone who is planning to whoop it up,'' said Diane Asadorian Masters, an Obama supporter from West Lafayette, Ind.
Kyle T. Smoke, chairman of the College Republicans at the University of Texas at Dallas, said that his group will not attend the student government's bipartisan party. Instead, members will watch with the grown-ups at the Dallas County Republican Party's gathering. ''Tensions are high,'' he said. ''We think it's in the best interest to be with our own people so we can either celebrate or sulk together.''
Ayelet Waldman, a novelist from Berkeley, Calif., who campaigned hard for Mr. Obama, will fly to Chicago on Tuesday to work the phones, knocking wood and spitting over her shoulder as she does so. ''I cannot take comfort in the polls,'' said Ms. Waldman, who, with her husband and four children, planned to gather with Obama supporters that evening in Grant Park.
Referring to the tight races in 2000 and 2004, she said: ''It's like Charlie Brown and the football: once, twice, a million times burned. I'll be in Chicago because I either want to celebrate with Barack or grieve with him''
Pam Young, a Republican mother of three from Fort Worth, Tex., said she would probably have a few friends over. ''I think my guy is going down for the count,'' she said, referring to Senator John McCain. She has many liberal friends with whom she traded nyah-nyah text messages during the debates. On Tuesday night, she said, with a sigh, ''They will abuse me with it.''
The evening presents an emotional challenge for Susan Bodnar Schatsky, a Manhattan Democrat. She'll be struggling to contain her battle-scarred cynicism, even as she encourages the excitement of her children, 9 and 11, who baked money-raising cookies and knocked on doors in Pennsylvania for Mr. Obama. ''Our kids need to be allowed to idealize,'' she said. ''We'll acknowledge that it's a special, fun night. But if it doesn't work out, we need to have a protective place for their tears.''
Bob Casselman has his protective place ready. Mr. Casselman, a middle school teacher from Zionsville, Ind., said he was voting for Mr. McCain but was apprehensive about the outcome of the evening, which he intended to spend at home with his wife. He has a shrinking retirement account and two college tuitions to cover. ''I'll certainly watch the returns,'' he said, ''but I'll also be reading a fun book'' -- David Baldacci's ''Stone Cold'' -- ''so I can take my mind off the serious stuff. I've been saving it for election night.''
By contrast, the ebullience of organizers of Tuesday night's events in Wasilla and Washington seemed unassailable. Perhaps that was because they will be celebrating themselves as much as their candidates.
In Wasilla, Mr. McCain and the Republican Party seem like afterthoughts, wafting after what is essentially a love-fest for Sarah Palin and small-town Alaska.
Typically on an election night, said Lynn Gattis, an organizer of the Wasilla event, ''We go to a local bar or watch on our own TVs, but this one is a big hoo-hah.''
The festival will feature gun-safety sessions, a flag ceremony from the Boy Scouts and vendors hawking Palin memorabilia, including wineglass charms -- trinkets to identify one's glass at an event -- in shapes like lipstick and high-heeled shoes. The Colony High School Marching Band from nearby Palmer will perform what Mrs. Gattis contended would be a special preview.
''The band is going to the inaugural parade!'' Mrs. Gattis said. ''We bought their uniforms on eBay, and they've been practicing. I've got my inaugural ball gown, tan-spray can and all.''
Across the country, Mr. Fauntroy, a founding member of the Congressional Black Caucus, sees in Mr. Obama the fulfillment of a dream more than 40 years old. ''This is the great harvest,'' he said, his voice breaking. ''The moment for which Martin Luther King Jr. gave his life. I've been saying to people ad nauseam: 'Pray and then vote. Put feet to your prayers.' ''
He expects at least 500 people at New Bethel on Tuesday night. ''I am so full of anticipation that I am ashamed of myself,'' Mr. Fauntroy said. ''I can almost hear the children singing and the church bells ringing.''
As if to defuse their anxiety, some hosts have intentionally created bipartisan guest lists. The marquee bipartisan party in New York is likely to be the one given by Harvey Weinstein, the ardent Democrat (and film and theater producer), and Georgette Mosbacher, the ardent Republican (and top executive at Borghese, the beauty company), along with Cindi Leive (undeclared) and Jim Nelson (Democrat), the editors in chief, respectively, of Glamour and GQ.
During a conference call with Ms. Mosbacher and Mr. Weinstein, that notion of friendship trumping partisanship was almost savaged, especially when Ms. Mosbacher, alluding to the candidates' tax proposals, described herself as ''a small-business owner.''
Mr. Weinstein all but gagged.
''I have a $100-million business,'' Ms. Mosbacher explained. ''I have to make a payroll on the first and the 15th of the month!''
Their guest list includes Robert. M. Morgenthau, the Manhattan district attorney; Eva Mendes, the actress; and Salman Rushdie, the writer. There will be, Mr. Weinstein chimed in, ''a lot of small-business owners of $100 million and above.''
''And a lot of limousine liberals,'' Ms. Mosbacher shot back.
Each acknowledged the gravity of the election, as well as the historic symbolism. If and when a winner is announced, Champagne will be served.
''If Barack wins, I'm buying,'' Mr. Weinstein said.
''And if McCain wins, he'll still be buying,'' she added.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: RECIPES: McCain, above, and Obama mixes. Shaken and Stirred, Page 8. (PHOTOGRAPH BY GABRIELE STABILE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(ST1)
PARTYING FOR PALIN: Lynn Gattis is an organizer of the ''victory celebration'' in Sarah Palin's hometown, Wasilla, Alaska. (PHOTOGRAPH BY JOSHUA BOROUGH FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
VOTES AND PRAYERS: The Rev. Walter E. Fauntroy expects a crowd at church. (PHOTOGRAPH BY ANDREW COUNCILL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(ST11)
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The Washington Post
November 2, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
Disclosure About Obama's Aunt May Have Broken Federal Law
BYLINE: Spencer S. Hsu and Judy Rakowsky; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A07
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The Department of Homeland Security is investigating whether its privacy policy was violated after a news organization reported that an aunt of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama is an illegal immigrant from Kenya, officials said yesterday.
The woman, Zeituni Onyango, 56, lives in a public housing complex in Boston and is the half sister of Obama's late father, who spent most of his life in Kenya before dying in a car accident in 1982.
The Associated Press reported late Friday that Onyango was denied asylum by an immigration judge and that she was instructed to leave the United States in 2004. The AP cited two unnamed sources, identifying one as a federal law enforcement official.
Federal privacy law restricts U.S. immigration agencies from disclosing information about citizens and permanent residents, and DHS policy similarly limits disclosures about the status of legal and illegal immigrants. Asylum-seekers are granted greater protection, because of the sensitive nature of their claims and the risks of retaliation.
In a statement, a spokeswoman for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said the matter has been referred to the agency's Office of Professional Responsibility and its parent department's inspector general.
"They are looking into whether there was a violation of policy in publicly disclosing individual case information," ICE spokeswoman Kelly Nantel said. "We can't comment on individual cases."
After Obama's campaign announced yesterday morning that it will refund a small number of contributions made by Onyango, two government officials confirmed that Onyango had sought asylum, citing violence in her native Kenya. One federal law enforcement official confirmed that a federal administrative judge ruled in 2004 she was not legally entitled to be in the United States and that a final order was entered for her deportation.
While such denials can be appealed, cases are generally decided within a year or two, according to federal statistics. Of about 12 million illegal immigrants estimated to be in the United States, about 550,000 are "fugitive aliens" staying in violation of deportation orders.
Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show Onyango gave Obama's campaign a total of $265, including several contributions of $5 and $25. The latest recorded contribution, of $5, was on Sept. 19. Only U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents, known as green cardholders, can legally contribute to federal presidential campaigns.
"Given the information that has been brought to our attention, the contributions are being refunded," said Ben LaBolt, an Obama campaign spokesman. "Senator Obama has no knowledge of her status but obviously believes that any and all appropriate laws be followed."
Mark Salter, a McCain adviser, called the issue "a family matter."
In his 1995 memoir, "Dreams From My Father," Obama described meeting the woman he calls Auntie Zeituni and other members of his large paternal family after he first traveled to Kenya in 1988 upon learning of his father's death. Obama wrote that Onyango was a tall, spirited woman who called herself "the champion dancer" and worked as a computer programmer in Nairobi.
Obama was raised mostly by his mother and her family in Hawaii after his father returned to Kenya when Obama was 2. Obama was reunited with his father once, for a month, at age 10.
Obama and his future wife, Michelle, met Onyango on a subsequent visit to Kenya in 1992, and she visited the Obama family in Chicago on a tourist visa about nine years ago, his campaign said. Onyango attended Obama's U.S. Senate swearing-in ceremony in 2005, and the senator last heard from her about two years ago, according to the campaign.
A campaign source said Obama provided Onyango no assistance in obtaining a tourist visa or housing, or in her immigration case.
In an interview with the Times of London, which first reported Onyango's presence in Boston and her campaign contributions, Onyango said she had traveled to and from the United States since 1975. Commercial databases indicate she received a Social Security card in 2001, indicating she was legally present and authorized to work at that time.
Onyango was not at her state-subsidized West Broadway residence yesterday in South Boston, and no one answered her telephone.
William McGonigle, deputy director of the Boston Housing Authority, said Onyango applied for public housing in 2002 and was approved in 2003 as an eligible noncitizen. She was paid a small stipend for volunteering as a resident health advocate starting in December 2007, he said.
McGonigle said that housing officials were not notified of her deportation order and that they followed all federal rules and laws in providing her stipend. He said housing officials were not aware that Onyango was related to Obama until the Times of London phoned last week.
Rakowsky reported from Boston. Staff writers Keith B. Richburg in New York and Matthew Mosk, and staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Elise Amendola -- Associated Press; An aunt of presidential candidate Barack Obama was ordered to be deported but lives here in South Boston.
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The Washington Post
November 2, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
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Colorado (9 electoral votes)
The Rocky Mountains have become the newest presidential battleground, with Colorado looming as the biggest prize in the region this fall. Colorado hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1992, but it increasingly looks like Barack Obama country.
Democrats targeted the state early and held their convention in Denver to signal their determination to continue a political conversion in the state. And Obama has tried to overwhelm John McCain with money and manpower. The senator from Illinois has more than 50 offices around the state to mobilize his voters, compared with McCain's dozen. McCain drew several thousand enthusiastic supporters in Denver a week ago; two days later, Obama drew 100,000. An Obama victory here would close off a critically important avenue that the senator from Arizona needs to reach 270 electoral votes.
Democrats hope to continue their recent success in other races by picking up the seat of retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R). Rep. Mark Udall (D) is the heavy favorite over former representative Bob Schaffer, who saw the Republican senatorial committee pull down its ads more than a week before the election.
In House races, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) is in trouble against Betsy Markey (D), a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar (D). Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R), who served a tour as a Marine officer in Iraq, is expected to easily defeat Democrat Hank Eng in the race to replace Tom Tancredo in the strongly Republican 6th District. Tancredo is retiring after a failed bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Udall's 2nd District seat, which includes Boulder, is likely to be won by Democrat Jared Polis, a former chairman of the Colorado Board of Education. He faces Republican Scott Starin, who works in the aerospace industry.
Florida (27)
The state at the center of the 2000 presidential election is one of a handful of true tossups in the fight between McCain and Obama.
Obama spent millions of dollars on commercials in the late summer and early fall before McCain responded with ads of his own. While polling initially showed Obama's ads having little effect, as the fall has worn on the race for the Sunshine State has tightened considerably, with most surveys showing the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.
The crucial area is the Interstate 4 corridor, which crisscrosses Florida from Flagler County on the east coast to Sarasota County on the west coast. Every recent statewide election has been decided in this area, and all six statewide elected officials hail from one of the 12 counties considered part of the I-4 corridor.
The state is also rife with competitive House races. Two Orlando-area Republicans -- Reps. Tom Feeney and Ric Keller -- appear headed for defeat. Feeney is being challenged by former state representative Suzanne Kosmas, Keller by lawyer Alan Grayson.
In the Miami area, the GOP brothers Diaz-Balart -- Lincoln in the 21st District, Mario in the 25th -- face serious challenges from well-known figures in South Florida's Hispanic community. Republicans are more optimistic about Lincoln's chances against former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez than they are about Mario's challenge from Joe Garcia, the former Miami-Dade Democratic chairman.
In South Florida's 16th District, Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) -- brought low by his high-profile admission of extramarital affairs -- is a likely loser against lawyer Tom Rooney (R), whose family owns football's Pittsburgh Steelers.
Rep. Verne Buchanan (R), who won by just 369 votes in 2006, seems safe in his 13th District rematch against Christine Jennings (D). In the state's only open-seat contest, state Sen. Bill Posey (R) is the favorite over physician Steve Blythe in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Dave Weldon (R) in the Space Coast 15th District.
Georgia (15)
Georgia has been a solidly Republican state, but Obama invested heavily in voter-registration efforts, hoping a huge turnout among blacks could push him toward victory. When polls showed McCain in good shape earlier this fall, the Obama campaign took down its television ads but kept some staff in the state. With polls now tightening and early-vote numbers looking positive, Obama decided to begin running ads again this weekend. McCain still rates a narrow favorite, but the margin could be smaller than expected.
The surge of black voters and the Obama campaign's aggressive voter registration could help the Democrats defeat Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), who is in a tossup race with former state representative Jim Martin.
Rep. Jim Marshall (D), who won by only two points in 2006, is in another tough race in central Georgia against Rick Goddard (R), a retired Air Force major general. In a district that Bush carried easily in 2004, Marshall has distanced himself from Obama. Rep. John Barrow (D), who won by 864 votes in 2006, is favored to hold his seat against former congressional aide John Stone (R).
Indiana (11)
Usually a solid state for Republicans, Indiana is so competitive this year that Obama paid a late visit to pump up the black vote in Gary. Since a narrow loss in the primary, he has launched an unprecedented ground campaign, opening 44 offices and launching a major registration effort. The key battleground is around Fort Wayne, and if the early-reporting results show Obama scoring there, watch out.
Gov. Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. (R), the former Bush administration budget director, had a rough stretch in the first two years of his term, with controversies over the leasing of the Indiana Toll Road and daylight saving time. But he has emerged with high approval ratings and is cruising to a second term over ex-U.S. representative Jill Long Thompson (D).
Democrats gained three House seats in 2006 and are favored to hold all of them, including the 9th District, where Rep. Baron P. Hill (D) has traded victories with former congressman Mike Sodrel (R) in three straight races. They will square off for the fourth time Tuesday. Rep. Mark Souder (R), who represents Fort Wayne, is favored over youthful lawyer Michael Montagano (D).
Iowa (7)
The place where it all began for Obama is one of the states most likely to switch from Republican to Democratic on Tuesday. Public polls show Obama with a healthy lead, although McCain advisers say the race is much closer than that.
Iowa has produced extremely close elections in the past two presidential campaigns. But in 2006, Democrats made major gains, and Obama spent almost a full year traveling the state on the way to his victory in the January caucuses that launched his candidacy. McCain, in contrast, skipped Iowa in his 2000 campaign and spent little time there during the Republican caucuses.
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is cruising toward reelection to a fifth term. There are no changes expected in the state's five congressional districts, where Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage. Democrats believe a strong turnout for Obama could boost Becky Greenwald, who is challenging Rep. Tom Latham (R) in the 4th District, but the Republican remains the favorite.
Missouri (11)
In the past 104 years, Missouri has voted for the presidential loser only once -- in 1956, when it went for Democratic Sen. Adlai Stevenson, who hailed from the neighboring state of Illinois. That record has rightly earned the Show-Me State its reputation as a presidential bellwether.
Will it hold on to that coveted status after this election? McCain opened up a comfortable lead in the state over the summer, but a concerted television campaign by Obama has helped narrow the gap, and most polls now suggest that the race is a dead heat.
Democrats have made strides in recent years -- highlighted by Sen. Claire McCaskill's win in 2006 -- thanks to a heavy focus on the more rural portions of Missouri between St. Louis in the east and Kansas City in the west.
Using that blueprint, state Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) is a heavy favorite to defeat Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) in the gubernatorial race caused by the retirement of one-term Gov. Matt Blunt (R).
In the northwestern part of the state, Democrats have high hopes for former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes in her challenge to 6th District Rep. Sam Graves (R). The incumbent has successfully painted Barnes as a liberal, but she has the edge. In Hulshof's open 9th District, state Rep. Judy Baker (D) is hoping that a huge turnout in Columbia -- home of the University of Missouri -- will boost her against former state representative Blaine Luetkemeyer (R). But the district's Republican roots may be too strong for Baker to overcome.
Montana (3)
Commonly known by natives as the Last, Best Place, Montana is also one of the last states that anyone would have expected to be a battleground.
The last Democrat to carry Montana at the presidential level was Bill Clinton in 1992, although that came with a major assist from independent candidate Ross Perot, who won 26 percent of the state's vote that year. Since then, Montana has moved heavily toward Republicans at the presidential level.
Despite that, Obama has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television ads here, and polling shows that the race is competitive -- although McCain maintains a narrow edge.
Gov. Brian Schweitzer, the man credited with the Democratic resurgence in Montana, is virtually assured of a second term in his race against Republican Roy Brown. Sen. Max Baucus (D), too, will cruise to reelection and a sixth term.
Nevada (5)
Nevada sided with Bush in the past two elections, but Democrats have done an impressive job over the past year in changing the composition of the electorate. That has given Obama hopes of picking off the state Tuesday, but McCain is fighting hard to keep Nevada red. Heading into the final days, it leans slightly toward Obama.
Four years ago, Republicans and Democrats were at rough parity in voter registration, but in the past year Democratic registration has surged, and the party now enjoys an advantage of just over 100,000. Another positive sign for Obama is in early-vote statistics. In the two big population areas -- Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno) -- Democratic early votes significantly outnumber Republicans'. And, in contrast to John Kerry four years ago, Obama also has spent time courting rural voters.
In Nevada's 2nd District, Rep. Dean Heller faces stiff competition from state Democratic Chair Jill Derby in a rematch from 2006; the race narrowly leans his way. In the 3rd District, Rep. Jon Porter is in an even tougher race against 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus.
New Hampshire (4)
This state, which saved McCain in January's GOP primary (as it did in 2000) and caused Obama heartburn by backing Hillary Rodham Clinton, appears poised to reverse signals now. Obama has a lead approaching double digits, which McCain will try to stall with a visit today.
Anti-Bush sentiment, which fueled a Democratic sweep in 2006, is the biggest challenge for Sen. John E. Sununu (R) in his rematch with former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D). She has held leads from four to six points in most polls. In their final debate Sununu tried to focus independent voters on the endorsements he has gained from newspapers that supported Shaheen in their 2002 Senate battle.
Popular Gov. John Lynch (D) is headed for a third-term win over state Sen. Joe Kenney (R), a Marine reservist who took the nomination better-known Republicans had turned down.
Democrats captured both House seats in 2006, and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) is clinging to the slightest of leads in her rematch with former congressman Jeb Bradley (R).
New Mexico (5)
At the start of the 2008 election season, Republicans controlled two of the state's three House seats and one of its Senate seats, and were still riding high on Bush's narrow victory in the Land of Enchantment four years earlier. But for months now, Republicans have acknowledged that Obama is almost certain to carry New Mexico on Tuesday, and they have ceded the state in order to conserve resources for Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, among others.
The Democratic whitewash will continue in the Senate race, where Rep. Tom Udall (D) is comfortably ahead of Rep. Steve Pearce (R) for the seat of retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R).
The House delegation will see new faces in January as all three members -- Udall, Pearce and Rep. Heather A. Wilson (R) -- left their seats to pursue the Senate seat.
The 1st District, based in Albuquerque and one of the most closely divided in the country, appears to be tilting Democrats' way, with former Albuquerque city councilman Martin Heinrich (D) favored over Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R). In the southern 2nd District, former Lea County commissioner Harry Teague (D) is favored over wealthy businessman Ed Tinsley (R) despite the area's conservative bent. Ben Ray Luján (D), son of the longtime New Mexico state House speaker, is a heavy favorite to replace Udall in the Democratic-friendly 3rd District.
North Carolina (15)
The top three races here couldn't be closer. Obama won big in the primary and has mounted a huge TV and ground game ever since, but McCain has fought hard to keep the state's record of being in the GOP column since 1976. Democrats figure that the black vote share would have to climb six or seven percentage points above the normal 18 to 20 percent for Obama to make it.
With Gov. Mike Easley (D) term-limited after eight years, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) was the early favorite, but seven-term Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) has captured the change theme. In the past, Republicans have won the governorship only in years of big presidential victories.
Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) became a target for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which ran largely unanswered TV ads all summer for her opponent, Kay Hagan (D). Dole found herself trailing in the polls and has opened a negative attack on Hagan, even linking her to atheism, but shut out of local newspaper endorsements, she may not have reacted in time.
Rep. Robin Hayes (R), who won by 329 votes last time, is facing the same opponent, populist teacher Larry Kissell (D), who this year has much stronger national support. Hayes added to his problems by telling a McCain rally that "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God." The incumbent has dipped into his own fortune to try to save the seat.
North Dakota (3)
Despite the state's long history of supporting Republicans for the White House, four late polls showed the McCain-Obama race within the margin of error. In addition to the problems plaguing the GOP nationally, McCain has been hurt here by his vote against the farm bill and his criticism of ethanol subsidies. Obama folded his operation early, when the first post-convention polls showed McCain with a comfortable lead, and that decision may cost him in what has turned into a close race.
Gov. John Hoeven (R), the nation's longest-serving current governor, is headed for a third term over state Sen. Tim Mathern (D).
Ohio (20)
No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio, and there's no realistic way to chart a course for McCain that doesn't include the Buckeye State. He and Sarah Palin are showering Ohio with attention, but he is in a struggle to keep Ohio in the Republican column. This state is rated a tossup, but polls have shown Obama with a small but consistent lead.
The most famous political figure in Ohio politics this fall is Joe the Plumber, the Toledo-area everyman who has become McCain's proxy in the economic debate. The economy is McCain's biggest burden here. Next to Michigan, Ohio may be the Midwestern state hardest hit by the economic downturn, and its slump long predates the mortgage and financial industry collapse.
Obama's hopes for converting Ohio lie in huge turnouts in the bigger cities and improving over Kerry's performance in small-town and rural southern Ohio. Obama ran poorly in those areas in the primary, and McCain is counting on those voters to pull him through.
Republicans are braced for the loss of House seats here. Rep. Steve Chabot is in a tossup race against state Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) in the 1st District, where a large black turnout for Obama could sink the Republican. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) also faces stiff competition in her rematch against Democrat Victoria Wulsin, but her strongly Republican district may save her.
Retirements have created two vulnerable Republican seats. In the 15th District, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who nearly defeated Rep. Deborah Pryce in 2006, is now in a tossup race against state Sen. Steve Stivers (R). In the 16th District, where Ralph Regula (R) is retiring, state Sen. Kirk Schuring faces real competition from state Sen. John Boccieri. Democrats say a big Obama victory also could pull in the district of retiring Rep. David L. Hobson (R), where Republican Steve Austria faces Sharen Neuhardt (D).
Pennsylvania (21)
Almost no state has seen more of McCain and Palin in the closing days than Pennsylvania, but Obama appears to be holding his hard-earned advantage. After losing the primary here to Hillary Clinton, he solidified his position by choosing Scranton native Joseph R. Biden Jr. as his running mate and rallied a blue-collar Democratic base. McCain and Palin have fought hard for those voters and lead among them in some polls. But Palin's weakness among suburban independents and the prospect of a massive black vote in Philadelphia tilt the race toward Obama.
Democrats, who gained four House seats in 2006, are favored for all of them, although Rep. Chris Carney (D) is getting a challenge from entrepreneur Chris Hackett (R). A more serious threat faces veteran Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski (D), weakened by publicity over earmarks that benefited a family-owned business. He faces Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazleton, who won national attention for an ordinance banning employment of illegal immigrants. Kanjorski was worried enough to enlist the help of former president Bill Clinton.
Longtime Rep. John P. Murtha (D) has found himself in trouble over remarks suggesting that his district is "racist" or "redneck." That brought fresh support from Washington for his opponent, William Russell (R), a retired Army lieutenant colonel. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats have rushed funds to Murtha, and he is expected to survive. Democrats have targeted seven-term Rep. Phil English (R) and are running a new candidate, landscape architect Kathy Dahlkemper, known for her work as director of the Lake Erie Arboretum.
The retirement of Rep. John E. Peterson (R) opens the way for former Centre County GOP chairman Glenn Thompson to come to Congress.
Virginia (13)
No state has seen its politics change more dramatically over the past four years than Virginia.
In 2004, Bush won it rather easily -- 54 percent to 45 percent -- over Kerry, the 10th straight time the Republican presidential candidate had carried the commonwealth.
The intervening years, however, have brought almost no good news for the GOP. Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine claimed the state's highest office in 2005, and the following year Sen. George Allen (R) fell in a stunning upset to James Webb (D).
Democrats seem likely to keep up their momentum Tuesday. Polls conducted in recent weeks have shown Obama leading McCain by between four and nine points.
Former Democratic governor Mark Warner is cruising to a victory over another former governor -- Republican Jim Gilmore -- in the race to replace retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R).
The House is filled with possibilities for Democrats as well. Northern Virginia's 11th District, held by retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R) since 1994, is almost certain to be represented by Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) in 2009. He faces newcomer Keith Fimian. Republicans are also increasingly pessimistic about Rep. Thelma Drake's chances in the 2nd District, which includes large swaths of Norfolk and Virginia Beach and has a 21 percent African American population. She is being challenged by Glenn Nye (D), who has been promised a seat on the locally vital Armed Services Committee. The 5th District, a conservative redoubt held by party-switching Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr., is also in jeopardy as Goode finds himself in a much more competitive race against Democrat Tom Perriello than expected. Tenth District Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R) is facing a rematch with Democrat Judith Feder but should win.
West Virginia (5)
After the shellacking Obama took in West Virginia during the primaries, there was little expectation that the state would become competitive in the general election. McCain is still favored, but Obama has held it closer than his performance in the spring would have foreshadowed.
The Mountain State was solid Democratic territory for years, but in 2000, it shifted to the Republicans in the presidential race, and Bush expanded his margin here in 2004. Obama got only 27 percent in the primary against Hillary Clinton but has converted some of those voters. Still, if Obama picked off the state, he would be on his way to an overwhelming electoral college margin.
In the Senate race, John D. Rockefeller IV (D) is breezing toward reelection to a fifth term, although he remains the junior senator to the venerable Robert C. Byrd (D). Gov. Joe Manchin III (D) also is cruising toward a second term.
The only House member with a race is Republican Shelley Moore Capito, although she is favored to hold her seat over Anne Barth (D), a former aide to Byrd.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE
IMAGE; By Melina Mara -- The Washington Post; Support is on display at a John McCain rally in New Mexico. The state is one of several that have been solidly Republican in past years but where McCain is now running closely against Democrat Barack Obama.
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IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; A crowd listens to Barack Obama at a town hall meeting in Ohio, one of several states rated as tossups.
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Discord on Economies In a World Of Trouble;
Conflicts Emerge as Nations Seek Solutions
BYLINE: Steven Mufson, Mary Jordan and Edward Cody; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
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Presidents and prime ministers from major countries around the world will gather in Washington in two weeks to begin heated negotiations over the shape of global financial regulation as they scramble to avoid a deep worldwide recession and restore confidence in markets.
Key European allies are pushing for broad new roles for international organizations, empowering them to monitor everything from the global derivatives trade to the way major banks are regulated across borders. But the Bush administration has signaled reluctance to go that far. In the past, it has resisted similar proposals as potentially co-opting the independence of the U.S. financial system or compromising free markets.
Some economists and policymakers say the summit could launch important reforms. But others predict it could turn into an economic tower of Babel, with weak political leaders promoting solutions fundamentally at odds with one another. And if leaders cannot bridge their differences, they could risk another bout of financial disarray.
There are also differences of opinion on the issue of timing. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who pressed for the 20-nation summit, says it must produce concrete and immediate results. But the host, President Bush, is a lame duck who says the meeting will be "the first in a series" and should focus on principles even though "the specific solutions pursued by every country may not be the same." Emerging proposals to sharpen existing regulatory tools appear to conflict with plans to create entirely new ones.
What is clear is that expectations for the summit among many observers are high.
"At the moment, I don't think it would be acceptable for the major leaders to come back from this conference and to go to their respective parliaments or whatever and say, 'Yes, we rearranged the deck chairs a little bit.' Because this is genuinely a Titanic crash," said Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics and former head of Britain's financial regulator, the Financial Services Authority.
The summit does have a precedent, one reaching back more than six decades. At the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, world leaders gathered to design the current international financial architecture, laying the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The Nov. 15 summit has been popularly referred to as Bretton Woods II.
But this time is different. Two years of preparation went into the 1944 summit. And whereas the United States and Britain largely shaped the postwar financial system, financial regulation and coordination will now require the participation of a broader and more unwieldy group, including emerging economies, many of them loaded with foreign exchange reserves, foreign debts and influence over global financial markets.
Those emerging economies, far from being "decoupled" from traditional industrial powers as many analysts believed just a few months ago, have found that they and more developed nations need one another.
One unknown factor, for now at least, is the U.S. president-elect. Both Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have said little about their views on the summit. The White House has said it does not expect the winner of Tuesday's election to attend, but to have input to some extent.
Bush, meanwhile, has been reserved. "We need to proceed with caution and care but also with all due speed," White House press secretary Dana Perino said recently. "The president is concerned about moving too far too fast and wanting to avoid unintended consequences."
Locking In Allies
World leaders are already maneuvering for position. Sarkozy, in particular, has methodically sought allies.
He won a key, although carefully worded, endorsement for action from China on Oct. 25 in Beijing, where a Europe-Asia economic cooperation summit called for more regulation of global financial markets.
"Each of us perfectly understood that it was not possible to meet [Nov. 15] just to talk," Sarkozy told reporters at a closing news conference.
"This is about no less and no more than the creation of a new financial constitution," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.
Sarkozy has also called a Nov. 7 summit of the European Union's 27 heads of state and government in hopes of winning a Europe-wide mandate to demand swift action in Washington. Recognizing Britain's special contacts with the United States, Sarkozy invited Prime Minister Gordon Brown to a strategy session Tuesday at a presidential retreat in Versailles.
Still, despite all the posturing, there are different views on what concrete action would mean.
Sarkozy and Brown have voiced support for a new international regulatory body to supervise large transnational banks. Brown has called for strengthening the Financial Stability Forum, created after the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The group of central bankers, finance ministry officials and international financial institution representatives produces important recommendations, Brown said in a speech this week, but, he added, "It never had enough teeth."
Merkel, who has been more conservative in dealing with the crisis than the hard-charging Sarkozy, favors a stronger International Monetary Fund, giving it a supervisory role in international finance and making it a "guard" of financial stability. Brown, too, has proposed making the IMF "an early-warning system" for financial problems, singling out low bank capital ratios or wildly mispriced securities.
IMF officials have embraced the idea that the fund could take on a larger role, perhaps as part of a secretariat involving other multilateral institutions.
Sarkozy has also sought support for proposals to curtail tax havens with new international investigative powers; require increased transparency on high-risk hedge fund investments; and regulate financial traders' compensation packages in a way that would reduce the incentive to make risky investments. But a French analyst said Sarkozy may scale back some of those ambitions given U.S. opposition. "He may have overreached a bit," said the analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity so that he could speak candidly.
Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, in power just five weeks, spelled out in a nationally televised speech Thursday night what he wants from the summit: international regulation of financial institutions and of credit rating agencies as well as standardized accounting for international business and markets.
"The current system under which the authorities in each individual country supervise their respective financial institutions is insufficient," Aso said.
He blamed "grave shortcomings" in the credit ratings of subprime mortgage securities and questioned whether the U.S. accounting requirement that firms value securities at market value made sense "given the tremendous volatility in the financial markets that we are currently seeing." Many financial institutions have argued that market panic drives down the value of those securities too far; other experts say that alternatives give financial institutions too much leeway to come up with their own, often inflated, valuations.
China may prove more cautious than any other nation. Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, said he thinks Chinese officials, while joining their European counterparts in calling for an overhaul of current regulatory systems, would stop short of supporting a proposal for a worldwide organization with significant power.
"It is important to have an agency which can coordinate the global market and policies of different countries," Wu said. "But China doesn't like the idea of having a global SEC since no organization should affect the sovereignty of countries."
Prospects for Politicians
For some leaders, the financial crisis offers a political opportunity at a time when electorates are deeply concerned about the future. Brown, Merkel and Sarkozy are all facing low approval ratings.
"I think all of the governments are uncomfortably aware that they have got very, very nervous electorates. Point one is just to show that somehow there is an agenda which can allow people to feel that something's under control," said Davies, the director of the London School of Economics. "People like Sarkozy, in particularly, and Brown know that their future depends on it appearing that they are responding adequately to this crisis."
There are dangers, though. The pressure to be seen as taking vigorous action could lead to overregulation, say many business leaders, especially in London, where the financial services sector plays a key role in the economy.
Willem Buiter, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker, said he feared "we will . . . end up regulating so tightly that a lot of financial institutions will be untenable and unprofitable and we will spend the next decade slowly chipping away at over-regulation."
Disunity is another risk. If world leaders fail to coordinate, the consequences could be severe. Their staggered responses to the financial crisis in September contributed to bank runs and currency fluctuations, as money fled to whatever country was promising the most generous guarantees.
"If we forbid alcohol in two pubs only, everyone would just go to the other pubs," said Dimitrios Tsomocos, professor of financial economics at Oxford University and a consultant to the Bank of England, who added that one nation's regulatory scheme must not be more attractive to business than another's.
"Now, with the crisis I think the chances have improved for coming to an international consensus," said Michael Meister, a parliamentarian with Merkel's Christian Democrats. "I hope the crisis will serve as a chance for real reform. . . . The more time elapses, the more difficult it will be to change regulations because once the urgency passes, there will be reluctance for action."
Robert Hormats, a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and former National Security Council staffer, said that the November summit would be valuable if it became the first in a series of G-20 meetings, widening economic coordination.
"We're at a point of time where the role of emerging economies has become very apparent and where the G-7 does not have the capacity in the eyes of many people in the world to solve this problem alone," Hormats said.
"We've learned from this crisis that you can't conceivably in the future try to pretend that the global financial system can be run by the occasional phone call between the Fed, the Bank of England, the SEC and the FSA," Davies agreed. "That's not going to work anymore."
Brown, in a speech to business leaders in London this week, said, "We have got to . . . involve China, India and all the emerging market economies because the world economy is changing before our eyes, and the system that is just built on Europe and America will not survive the test of time."
Jordan reported from London, Cody from Paris. Correspondents Blaine Harden in Tokyo and Ariana Eunjung Cha in Shanghai, as well as special correspondents Karla Adam in London, Akiko Yamamoto in Tokyo, Shannon Smiley in Berlin and Stella Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By David Gray -- Reuters; France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, left, turns to German chancellor Angela Merkel, right, last month in Beijing, where Asian and European leaders traded views on the global downturn, climate change and international security.
IMAGE; Pool Photo By Patrick Kovarik Via Reuters; Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown at a strategy session at a presidential retreat in Versailles.
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November 2, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
Don't Blame the Bradley Effect
BYLINE: Ken Khachigian
SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B01
LENGTH: 1257 words
They call it "the Bradley effect."
Pundits and politicians speak of it in ominous tones. It surfaced in New Hampshire in January, when Barack Obama's eight-point lead on the eve of that state's primary dissolved into a shocking come-from-behind victory for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Could it have been the Bradley effect? Chris Matthews of "Hardball" and a host of other talking heads thought so.
As Obama continues to hold a lead in the presidential polls against John McCain, the specter of the Bradley effect still haunts the campaign. It's a reference to the 1982 California governor's race, which Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American, lost to state Attorney General George Deukmejian even though a popular election-eve poll showed Bradley ahead by a solid seven points. If Obama should lose on Nov. 4, there are those who'll maintain it was the Bradley effect at work. Even in faraway Kenya, the Los Angeles Times found a Nairobi choreographer to quote: "There's this thing called 'the Bradley effect' that we are all very afraid of."
Enough. This urban legend, which holds that white voters may be telling pollsters they're voting for Obama while they're secretly harboring racial reservations about him, deserves to be banished from our political conversation. As a senior strategist and day-to-day tactician in Deukmejian's 1982 campaign, I'm happy to send it packing once and for all.
There were several reasons why Bradley lost the governor's race in 1982 -- and none of them had to do with race. In the last two weeks of that campaign, Bradley was cruising through California on a languid victory tour. Conventional wisdom and early polling had made him smug and complacent. Nine days before the voting, a United Press International story observed: "Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley hasn't even been elected governor yet, but Democrats already are talking him up as a potential candidate for vice president in 1984." You could hardly blame them. Deukmejian's campaign manager had resigned three weeks before Election Day, and the political obituaries for the Republican candidate had become routine.
With our backs to the wall, the "Duke's" campaign regrouped. We got a large infusion of late cash from loyal supporters and shed our defensive posture in favor of hard-hitting messages homing in on Bradley's two principal vulnerabilities: non-Angeleno antipathy toward Los Angeles and the mayor's "soft-on-crime" liberalism.
With a little more than a week left, I drafted copy for two new television commercials. The first built on Bradley's opposition to the death penalty and California's Victims' Bill of Rights, both of which had been overwhelmingly approved by state voters. Four former chiefs of Bradley's own police department had endorsed Deukmejian, the author of California's death-penalty statute and other tough-on-crime laws.
A second commercial sharply exploited the wariness that other major California cities felt toward Los Angeles, something that surveys by our pollster, Lance Tarrance, showed to be a sure vote-getter in San Diego, the San Francisco Bay Area and growing suburbs across the state. Hence the tag line: "We deserve a governor for all of California's cities, not just one." It's noteworthy that no Los Angeles mayor has been elected governor in modern California history.
But rural California wasn't in line merely to reject Los Angeles. There were two other central concerns. First, guns. Gun control advocates had put an initiative to freeze handgun sales -- Proposition 15 -- on the ballot. The NRA and the firearms industry raised millions of dollars to run the "No on 15" campaign and, through California gun stores, registered 300,000 new voters, few of whom were likely to vote for gun-control advocate Bradley.
Add that to Bradley's unpopularity among Central Valley farmers -- he'd supported the United Farm Workers' grape boycott and couldn't escape being identified with vastly unpopular Gov. Jerry Brown -- and it's easy to see why rural California flocked to the polls to voice its opposition to his candidacy.
Finally, exit polls showing Bradley winning were skewed by the unprecedented wave of absentee voters. In early September, the state GOP apparatus had set in motion a campaign to promote absentee-ballot voting -- something quite common today but more unusual a quarter-century ago. The party's push contributed to more than a half-million absentee voters, 50 percent more than in the previous gubernatorial election. As so many other observers, Democrats as well as Republicans, have noted, Bradley may well have won with actual precinct voters. But he was swamped by overwhelmingly Republican absentee ballots counted late into the night and the early morning hours.
Analysts shouldn't overlook an element of flawed polling that contributed to the Election Day surprise. Tarrance continued his tracking polls for the Deukmejian campaign right up through the eve of Election Day. His final tracking poll was taken on Sunday and Monday nights and showed Deukmejian within one point of Bradley, confirming the steady gains we'd been making since taking the offensive in the last two weeks. Mervin Field, whose firm was then the state's gold standard of polling, took his final poll over the weekend, including both Friday and Saturday, the two days when it's most difficult to reach the most valid samples of voters. Field not only may have had sampling errors, but his timing was also massively flawed and failed to capture Deukmejian's surging momentum.
Lost in all the shallow analysis of that gubernatorial campaign is what might really be called "the Deukmejian effect." Less than three weeks before election day, Field had released a poll analysis showing that about 5 percent of voters were disinclined to vote for an African American candidate. But the poll also found something else: "On the other hand 12 percent of the voters say they are disinclined to vote for a candidate of Armenian descent (which describes Deukmejian). In the face of these findings, it would appear that Deukmejian's Armenian background could potentially act as a greater drag to his chances of becoming governor than being Black works against Bradley."
Indeed, when poll callers recorded verbatim responses to the question "What is the main reason you have for voting for/against George Deukmejian?", an alarming number included angry attacks on the candidate's Armenian ancestry. Moreover, his was not exactly the most "average"-sounding of names. Deukmejian's six immediate predecessors had been named Brown, Reagan, Brown, Knight, Warren and Olson. Race aside, "Bradley" was a familiar name that fit the mold.
In the end, voters managed to sort everything out -- and Deukmejian's ancestry and Bradley's race may have canceled each other out. Polling errors, absentee votes, gun rights activists, anti-L.A. sentiment and Tom Bradley's liberal positions all added to his narrow defeat -- by just a little more than 1 percent of the vote -- by a better-run campaign that created driving momentum in its final days. Any notion of race as an issue was put to bed when Bradley sought a rematch in 1986, and Deukmejian trounced him by 23 percent -- the biggest gubernatorial landside in California in the last half of the 20th century.
As Tarrance recently wrote, the "Bradley effect" is a "theory in search of data." If we want honest debate about the role of race in elections, it's time to put a stake through its heart.
Ken Khachigian, a California lawyer, was a senior aide to President Ronald Reagan.
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Opposite Sides of the Fence but Equal Lawn Time
BYLINE: Michael Laris; Washington Post Staff Writer
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LENGTH: 1204 words
The two plastic yard signs planted in the mulch in Fairfax County confound passersby. Same with two others stuck in a lawn four blocks away. What kind of people -- at the end of a divisive campaign, in a battleground state -- would have signs for both Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama in front of their homes?
Alex Fetgatter stepped inside out of the drizzle one recent night, dropped his gray fleece on Ezzie, the family poodle, and, along with his dad, Jim, started to explain.
They have been living together south of Alexandria since Alex graduated from the University of Virginia this summer, and the old patterns are still in play: Father takes on the liberal media at the breakfast table, seeing bias in the coverage. Photos capturing unflattering Republican facial expressions are always a good trigger. Holding forth may then ensue.
"It's amazing what you can do with a picture," Jim, 63, says.
"I just tease him about how obsessed he is with all this," says Alex, 22.
"I'm really not."
"Umm, I don't know about that."
They do a lot of jabbing and joking, and that's the way they approach their private conversation about the nation's politics.
There are no bespectacled moderators or 90-second time limits in the places where most Americans argue about politics, just the love, history and imperfect patter of communication and miscommunication that shape family life. Campaign signs can be quick distillations of those debates. More rarely, the flimsy plastic exclamations advertise unresolved clashes.
After Jim's McCain sign went up, Alex parked his Jeep Cherokee -- well, the Jeep Cherokee he was borrowing from his dad -- in front to block the view. Jim, who had a Bush sign four years ago, said he'd prefer if his son got his own.
"I woke up at 6:30, and it was there -- a magic mushroom," Jim said.
And that was that. Though it wasn't, really.
Alex's older brother, Ryan, 24, who lives in Rosslyn and works in real estate development, occupies the family's right flank. Uprooting his brother's sign and leaving it to be discovered behind a bush became a favorite provocation.
While Alex and his father have been keeping the political talk tamped down while living under the same roof, things devolve when Ryan joins them for dinner.
"Then it's . . ." Jim begins.
"Oh, God," adds Alex.
"Wide open," Jim says.
"Then it explodes," Alex says. "I really hate talking about politics, actually. You're not going to change anyone's opinion, and to be honest, I'm not that well-informed, so . . . "
"Obviously," his dad can't help but interject.
Alex voted for President Bush shortly after leaving home for Charlottesville, where he studied history. He was "kind of Republican by association," he said. He now works at a private contractor for the Department of Agriculture and believes that a more activist government, led by Obama, will better protect the environment. He welcomes "more direct, intense government involvement in things, 'cause I feel like that's really the only way to get people to change."
It would also be a striking feat for the United States to have a black president, Alex adds. And he thinks Obama would be better at defending the civil rights of Alex's gay friends.
That's "not even worth talking about right now, with everything else going on," says Jim, who runs an association for foreign real estate investors. His focus is economics, terrorism and stopping a Democratic sweep. On the Iraq war, "McCain has been right all along, and Obama has been wrong along," he adds.
Despite the sparring, they agree on some big things. They think the campaign has gone too long, with too much minutiae and gossip. ("I find it hard to even watch Fox News anymore," Jim says.)
Most important, they still share the same family values.
"Being honest," Alex says. "Being a good friend."
"Work ethic," his father adds. And the value of education.
Alex offers: "The importance of family."
Less than a half-mile away, teacher Barbara Leonard saw the new blue accompaniment to her McCain/Palin lawn sign as she headed out for church.
It was two Sundays ago, and her son Alden, who works as a paralegal for an immigration law firm in the District, had come home after 2 a.m. from a party in Dupont Circle and posted his pro-Obama counterpoint.
The precipitating event was the appearance of the Alaska governor's name on his mom's two most recent signs. Her solo McCain sign had been stolen, and she had replaced it with ones that included the Arizona senator's running mate.
But Alden's sign was quickly overshadowed. On the drive to church with her husband Chip, Barbara heard that former secretary of state Colin Powell was endorsing Obama. "I was just furious," she says. "I talked about it nonstop for the next two days."
Add the torrent of Obama advertisements flowing over family dinners in front of the nightly news, like the one about McCain voting with Bush 90 percent of the time or one on health care she thinks is unfair, and Barbara was feeling besieged.
"They'll jump in and say, 'The McCain camp is doing the exact same thing with Obama's plan. You really don't have a right to complain,' " says Barbara, 58. "I'm the odd man out anyway because I'm the only woman in this household of men. I guess I get a little tired of that sometimes."
Barbara's parents were so conservative that talking politics could easily be seen as talking back, which could get her banished to her room. "If that was the case today, I'd never leave my room," says Alden, 23.
Barbara, an independent, twice voted for Bush but had been inspired by her husband to campaign for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primary. Chip Leonard, 59, a military research analyst, had volunteered for Clinton across the country, sometimes paying his own expenses. He loved her passion and ability to see the big picture, and his family fed off his enthusiasm. Alden organized a campus group for the New York senator at the College of William and Mary. Barbara liked how Clinton laid out detailed plans, something she doesn't find in Obama.
"It was fun in the beginning, because we were all on the same page," she says. "We'll talk about it when we're in the nursing home. 'Remember that year?' "
She had hoped she could pull some family members with her to McCain, but she learned this week that her two other sons, one in Charlottesville and another in Colorado, also a key swing state, have decided to go for Obama.
Chip is still ambivalent. He said earlier that he was considering writing in Clinton's name, but he's still weighing what's important to him.
Alden had been down on Obama, too. "He was so angry with Obama months ago for stealing the nomination from Hillary. He had said things like, 'I would never vote for him.' He's really come around. It's like talking to a different person. But Obama's very persuasive," Barbara says.
On Monday night, Alden sent his mom an e-mail full of links. She had said McCain would be better than his rival on health care and would restore America's status abroad. Wrong candidate, he argued.
"It just seems more and more he's on me now about the way I should vote," Barbara says.
But he's too late. She voted absentee last week, something she's not sure her son heard. "He doesn't listen to everything I say."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Dominic Bracco Ii -- The Washington Post; Chip Leonard, left, is still undecided, his wife Barbara favors Sen. John McCain and son Alden is backing Sen. Barack Obama.
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Will She Ever Get There?
BYLINE: Anne E. Kornblut
SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B01
LENGTH: 1627 words
As the presidential campaign draws to a close, it's commonplace to hear 2008 heralded as an excellent year for women. But has it been?
First Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ran the most serious presidential campaign of any woman in U.S. history. Then Gov. Sarah Palin, the first woman on a Republican ticket, sparked an initial rush of excitement. Never before have women played such a prominent role in national politics, the reasoning goes, and that has laid the groundwork for even greater advancement the next time a woman runs.
But both women's campaigns devolved into such strife, their candidacies provoking such frenzied passions and mocking caricatures along the way, that it's only fair to ask whether the first woman's path to the White House was eased this year -- or whether Clinton and Palin simply unearthed the land mines without defusing any of them. If Democrat Barack Obama wins on Tuesday, he will have broken a huge barrier. But another one still awaits.
On Tuesday, Palin will emerge, win or lose, as the figure most transformed by her brief time in the public eye. After bursting onto the national scene as a moose-hunting mother of five who could rescue John McCain's campaign, the Alaska governor wound up sinking in the polls and getting entangled in a classic "girl story" about her now famous Republican National Committee-financed shopping spree. Her campaign handlers promptly threw her overboard and anonymously declared her a "whack job" and a "diva" -- hardly a moment of profound advancement. In the end, Palin seems to represent less "an explosion of a brand-new style of muscular American feminism" (in the words of the contrarian feminist Camille Paglia) than the stereotypical former-beauty-queen-made-good who seeks affirmation about her abilities while people just titter about her clothes.
Clinton moved along a different trajectory, from the lofty status of former first lady and commanding front-runner to the scrappy underdog in the Democratic primaries, fighting her way to the end of the contests and winning a sweeping 18 million votes in the process. But the New York senator's uncharacteristically tearful moment on the eve of the New Hampshire primary will forever be linked to her victory there, deservedly or not. And after her campaign ended, some of her supporters threatened to revolt if Obama picked a woman other than Clinton as his running mate. "That's feminism?" one senior Obama adviser asked me pointedly at the time.
More than just groundbreaking candidates, Clinton and Palin became cultural flashpoints. That Clinton would be ridiculed and mimicked and scrutinized came as no surprise to her team -- many of them had seen her go through a similar wringer in the White House and upon her arrival in the Senate -- but some of her advisers chalked the rough treatment up as much to her being a Clinton as to her being a woman. As the 2008 primary campaign went on, however, they increasingly spoke of a genuine double standard rooted in gender; by the end, they openly complained of sexist treatment in the media, which goes some way toward explaining why Clinton declined to criticize Palin once McCain chose the Alaska governor as his running mate.
Palin lost her luster soon after the Republican convention, stumbling on basic substance in interviews, hiding from most of the media and making claims about her record (such as having opposed the so-called bridge to nowhere) that were debunked. But rather than move to confront her weaknesses, her campaign swiftly seized on sexism as a reason Palin was being grilled in the first place. Most notably, the Republican campaign arranged a conference call to denounce Obama for using the phrase "lipstick on a pig" because just days earlier, Palin herself had made a reference to lipstick ("Disgusting comments, comparing our vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, to a pig," said former Massachusetts governor Jane Swift, a McCain surrogate). Professionals will argue about the political wisdom of that tactic -- it did, after all, distract attention from more serious issues that were failing to boost McCain's standing -- but few would cite it as a trailblazing moment in the history of gender politics.
More recently, another Palin subplot, in addition to the $150,000 boutique wardrobe, had emerged -- her attractiveness, and whether McCain had picked her on that basis. A recent New Yorker article by Jane Mayer noted the swoon among several neoconservatives when they met Palin in Alaska in 2007. ("Exceptionally pretty," said Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard.) In a focus group conducted by the Democratic pollster Peter Hart last Sunday in Ohio, undecided voters were asked which of the four candidates they would most like to sit next to on an airplane. One initially picked Palin, saying, "Geez, I'm a 29-year-old male." (He then changed his answer, saying he'd rather sit with Obama.) Obama views Palin as such a liability that he ran an ad last week featuring her winking. And Palin allies are blaming her McCain handlers for her fall, starting with top communications adviser Nicolle Wallace, who helped arrange the CBS interview with Katie Couric that began Palin's downward slide. The complaints have ballooned into an ugly cat fight. Progress? Really?
Prominent women in politics have been largely focused on the good news -- that Clinton and Palin were there at all. And regardless of which ticket wins on Tuesday, a woman will have a rightful claim to being head of the opposition party. Meanwhile, many Democrats, still scared of picking the scabs from the primary wounds, have embraced Obama's ascent as a positive harbinger of its own.
"Every time we break down one barrier, the other quickly comes down as well," said Donna Brazile, the onetime campaign manager for Al Gore. "Throughout the year, most observers have tried to put race versus gender -- like, what is the greatest disadvantage? As if some of us don't represent both."
Brazile urged people to look beyond the presidential tickets for signs of advancement. "It took us 88 years to get here," she noted. "We have a speaker of the House, a secretary of state, a phenomenal woman who ran for the Democratic ticket and a woman competing to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. It has elevated the process."
Many women in the feminist movement's dominant, largely Democratic wing seem to feel that Clinton's campaign, however flawed, was a step forward -- while Palin's was a step back. "If Hillary cracked the glass ceiling, I think Sarah Palin slipped on some of the pieces of glass," said Ellen Malcolm, the founder of EMILY's List, which supports female candidates who favor abortion rights.
Except, of course, that Clinton didn't actually crack that glass ceiling. Rather, she dented it (18 million times, as she famously pointed out in her final speech in June). And along the way, her candidacy fractured the traditional women's movement: The abortion-rights group NARAL endorsed Obama (deeply angering the Clinton campaign and wounding the candidate personally), while EMILY's List and other groups stood by her, even after it appeared that she wouldn't have enough delegates to win the nomination.
That has left today's feminist movement struggling to define its mission or wondering whether it even has one. Is the goal to promote and elect women everywhere, or is it to support the candidate viewed as the best for the job, whether male or female? Wouldn't the latter be the more progressive course? Is the common purpose to back candidates who back abortion rights and liberal policies? The questions became unexpectedly urgent when McCain picked Palin in August, but they were already bubbling up by the early spring.
Then, in a strikingly similar fashion, conservative women broke into two angry camps as they struggled with whether they were obliged to stand by Palin. McCain's high command had hoped that Palin would peel away resentful Clinton supporters; in fact, she has driven away some GOP stalwarts. The conservative writer Kathleen Parker led the Republican defections, followed by former Ronald Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan, who disgustedly waved Palin off in one of her Wall Street Journal columns as an unqualified empty vessel who "doesn't seem to understand the implications of her own thoughts." The exodus was rooted in disdain for Palin's intellect, but in a way, the Republican departures have been even more disloyal than the feminists who chose Obama over Clinton: Parker, Noonan and others were not abandoning Palin for another partisan of stature, as the Democrats had in their primaries. They were just abandoning her.
Along the way, there have been rogues with their own takes on gender politics. Ann Coulter, a conservative provocateur who openly loathes McCain, declared herself a Clinton supporter. Paglia praised Palin's "frontier grit and audacity" (even though she has said she still intends to vote for Obama), and Ellen Lafferty, a former editor of Ms. magazine and a Clinton supporter, showed up onstage recently at a Palin rally.
But the massive wave of Clinton supporters that Republicans predicted would sweep toward McCain has never materialized, at least not according to the late-October polls. Palin's selection has turned out to be the one example in recent history of a vice presidential pick having a measurable effect on the direction of the race -- a negative one.
In the months and years before she announced her candidacy, Clinton was often asked whether the country was ready to elect a woman president of the United States. "Well, we won't know until we try," she always said.
Having tried, heading into 2009, the question is still out there.
kornbluta@washpost.com
Anne E. Kornblut covers politics for The Washington Post.
LOAD-DATE: November 2, 2008
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CORRECTION-DATE: November 4, 2008
CORRECTION: A Nov. 2 Outlook article misidentified a former editor of Ms. magazine Sarah Palin. who appeared onstage at a recent rally for Republican vice presidential nomineeHer name is Elaine Lafferty, not Ellen Lafferty
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November 2, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. AA03
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Arizona (10 electoral votes)
John McCain remains the favorite in his home state, but the contest has tightened. Several polls in the past week have pegged his lead at five points or less, and Barack Obama's campaign has begun to advertise in the state.
In the sprawling 1st District, Rep. Rick Renzi (R) is retiring as he awaits trial on federal corruption charges. Former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is considered the favorite to replace him over conservative activist Sydney Hay (R).
In the Phoenix-based 3rd District, Rep. John Shadegg (R) is facing a tougher-than-expected challenge from lawyer Bob Lord (D), though polls have shown Shadegg retaining a solid lead. Two Democratic freshmen, Harry E. Mitchell in the 5th District and Gabrielle Giffords in the 8th District, are now favored to retain their seats.
Oklahoma (7)
Polls show McCain leading by an average of roughly 30 points in the state, which President Bush won by more than 31 points in both 2004 and 2000.
Sen. James M. Inhofe (R) is a strong favorite to win reelection against state Sen. Andrew Rice (D), boasting a double-digit lead in every publicly released survey. None of the state's five House incumbents faces a serious challenge.
Texas (34)
McCain will win Texas; the question is whether Republican Sen. John Cornyn's race against state Rep. Rick Noriega (D) will even be close. Cornyn is favored, but his victory does not appear assured.
Two House races bear watching. The suburban-Houston-based 22nd District looks to be one of the GOP's few genuine pickup opportunities in the nation. Rep. Nick Lampson (D) is trying to hold onto the Republican-leaning district formerly held by onetime House majority leader Tom DeLay (R), and the Democrat faces a well-funded challenge from ex-Senate aide Pete Olson (R).
Also in Houston, Rep. John Culberson (R) is favored to win reelection in the 7th District against energy executive Michael Skelly (D), though the last public survey pegged the incumbent's lead at seven points.
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IMAGE; By Toni L. Sandys -- The Washington Post; Delegates from Texas, a heavily Republican state, attend the GOP's national convention in St. Paul in September.
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November 2, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
The Post-Racial Election
BYLINE: Jim Hoagland
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. B07
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No presidential election is about one thing only. It takes many strands fused together to account for victory or defeat. But when the last ballots are counted, that will not stop a judgmental world from using one criterion above all to analyze the outcome: Did the United States elect a black president or not?
This will be true although -- to an astonishing and admirable degree -- Americans have relegated the politics of race to the back burner in the long presidential campaign now in its final hours.
Barack Obama has succeeded brilliantly in casting his candidacy -- indeed, his whole life -- as post-racial. Even before the votes have been cast, he has written a glorious coda for the civil rights struggle that provided this nation with many of the finest, and also most horrible, moments of its past 150 years. If the results confirm that race was not a decisive factor in the balloting, generations of campaigners for racial justice and equality will have seen their work vindicated.
But on travels abroad this election year, I have found other nations reducing the complex arguments here about health care, national security and tax policy to a one-dimensional discussion of whether American race relations have really changed enough for Obama to win. I have seen this especially in countries that have their own concerns about race and politics and often project those concerns onto us.
This was underlined to me in France recently by this question from a fellow journalist: "Why do Americans insist on describing Barack Obama as 'black'?"
Wait a minute, I responded. The U.S. electorate and the media have, with some deplorable exceptions, worked hard not to treat Obama as a black candidate -- and to focus scorn on those who do.
But it slowly became apparent that my questioner was getting at a more precise sense of racial classification than Americans use today. In the French scheme of things, Obama is not black, and he is not white. He is both. And that is the true meaning of post-racial.
Ideally, this campaign has helped Americans become more comfortable with this reality. The nation is fashioning a functional equivalent of metis -- i.e., post-racial -- largely through a successful exercise in cognitive dissonance by the Obama campaign.
In his nationally televised half-hour campaign ad Wednesday night, viewers saw Obama extolling his white mother and grandparents for their "Midwestern values." They heard him reassuringly say that he had been shaped more by the absence than the presence of his African father -- a statement many of us can sympathize with from our own chaotic childhoods of absent parents and care-giving grandparents but one nonetheless with subliminal political undertones.
And viewers have repeatedly been reminded that it was Patton's army that Obama's grandfather marched in, not one of those shamefully segregated black units that still stir guilt among whites and a mix of pride and anger among blacks. Obama's values in some measure transcend the civil rights struggle. They were its beneficiary.
Overt race-baiting has actually declined as the campaign has progressed, especially since Obama's masterful March 18 speech in Philadelphia that defused the controversy surrounding his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. When discussing race, the media have usually focused on technical and procedural issues such as whether white voters tell pollsters the truth about their intentions to vote for black candidates, rather than on moral and value questions.
An Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in September quantified the potential racist vote -- people who explicitly say they will not vote for Obama because he is "black" -- at about 6 percent of the electorate. (The pollsters helpfully determined that most Republicans would not vote for a Democrat of any color, proving that for some, red and blue are more important than black and white in this election.)
And a Big Ten Battleground Poll of the same vintage suggests that voters who rank race as an important factor will divide nationally between Obama and John McCain pretty much along the same lines as the non-racially-minded population. Go figure.
Those who fear that the pollsters are being deceived could turn out to be right Tuesday night. But grant me this: The campaign has dramatically narrowed the ground on which the politics of race can be practiced in the United States. That is a reality the rest of the world should absorb, acknowledge and get over, as Americans seem to be doing.
jimhoagland@washpost.com
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November 1, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
GOP Slide in Mich. Hews to Economy;
Democrats Say They Expect to Gain
BYLINE: Paul Kane; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 1119 words
DATELINE: JACKSON, Mich.
Almost everything seems to be on the wane in the self-proclaimed birthplace of the Republican Party.
Jackson County, population of about 150,000, is on pace for about 1,400 foreclosures this year. Unemployment hovers around 11 percent. Talk of the collapse of one of the Big Three automakers permeates local conversation. One of the area's biggest employers, a giant GM plant that builds increasingly unpopular sport-utility vehicles, has become a symbol of the direction people think things are headed.
With all that has gone wrong, the prospects of Democrat Mark Schauer have gone up. The state senator declared last week that his campaign was going "as good as I could have imagined," and Democrats are hopeful of capturing a House seat that's been in GOP hands for decades.
"What the nation is experiencing now is what Michigan has been experiencing the last eight years," said Schauer, 47, who is running neck and neck in his bid to unseat Rep. Tim Walberg (R).
Schauer hopes to be one of several Rust Belt Democrats to take advantage of resentment about the economy. Party leaders are eyeing more than a dozen seats held by House Republicans across the Midwest, a down-on-its-luck region that could provide a huge chunk of the roughly 30 seats that are expected to flip to Democrats.
It's a dramatic turnaround for what was once fertile ground for Republicans. After the 1998 midterm elections, Republicans held six of the eight governor's mansions in the Midwestern states whose universities are part of the Big 10 Conference. They held nine of the 16 Senate seats in the region. The House had just elected as speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), a former high school wrestling coach.
After Tuesday's election, Republicans are expected to hold one or two governorships in those same eight states, which are likely to send four or five Republicans to the Senate. The Midwesterner who now leads the House Republicans, Minority Leader John A. Boehner (Ohio), is fighting for his position.
The sagging manufacturing-based economy has played a central role in almost every successful Democratic campaign, particularly in Michigan. A private economist recently labeled the state's loss of 497,000 jobs this decade as an "unprecedented, Depression level" shedding of 10.5 percent of its total workforce.
The state is facing such tough times that one embattled GOP incumbent, Rep. Joe Knollenberg, is not suffering politically for his support of the controversial $700 billion rescue plan, in large part because voters think the auto industry needs a similar boost. That's a departure from most races in most other states, where support for the rescue plan is weighing down those who backed it.
"We've been through so many rough spots here, I don't think most people blame Joe," said Dennis G. Cowan, chairman of the Republican Party of Oakland County.
Instead, Michigan Democrats are finding success in blaming President Bush for the state's economic woes.
"I would like to think of myself as a Republican at heart," said Travis Beard, 31, co-founder of Worry Free, a landscaping company with 27 employees. But Beard's company is struggling from a heavy influx of competition, mostly, he said, from laid-off white-collar workers trying to make ends meet. Beard used to charge from $14 to $15 per square foot of lawn maintenance, but he has slashed his prices to $10 per square foot to stay competitive.
"I'm ready for change. I'm ready for the gas prices to drop," Beard said at the Royal Oak Chamber of Commerce's awards dinner in Detroit's northern suburbs. He expects to vote for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) for president and is not sure what he will decide about Knollenberg's race.
That Knollenberg, 74, an eight-term veteran, is fighting for votes from the local Chamber is a sign of the tough political times. "They're putting the blame on Bush, and they're connecting me to Bush," he said after the awards dinner at Red Run Golf Club.
Knollenberg faces other challenges, too. After working with the entire state delegation to secure funding for a $25 billion loan guarantee to help automakers make the transition to building fuel-efficient cars, the credit crisis hit and put the industry in an even more dire situation.
Then Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) folded his presidential campaign in Michigan, deciding that the economic woes there made victory impossible. The National Republican Congressional Committee also abandoned plans for an ad campaign on Knollenberg's behalf.
Knollenberg is not used to such tough fights -- his campaign war chest still inexplicably had more than $1.5 million as of mid-October -- and is doing almost all the campaign work on his own. His 69-year-old wife, Sandie, has been going door to door five hours a day.
His opponent, former state senator Gary Peters, is running a high-tech voter turnout program with the help of Obama's campaign, an operation that Democratic leaders have identified as one of the nation's best. A couple of dozen volunteers make 5,000 calls a day from numbers listed on bar-encoded sheets so contact data can be maintained. Last weekend, volunteers dropped off 85,000 door-hangers with Peters's image, a strategy that will be repeated this weekend at the other 85,000 homes in the district.
Peters also is focusing intensely on tough economic times that have hit even wealthy Oakland County, which has lost 75,000 jobs this decade. "Most people are coming to the conclusion that the policies of the past have failed us," he said in an interview. "It all ties in with the insecurity people are feeling."
Walberg and Knollenberg's battles underscore the difficulty for Republicans. Walberg, 57, is a first-term representative from the GOP's conservative wing -- he is opposed to abortion rights, government spending and regulation. Knollenberg is a classic country-club Republican whose seat on the Appropriations Committee has allowed him to seed his district with tens of millions a year.
In Jackson, Schauer works out of the county's Democratic Party headquarters on Mechanic Street across the street from Dicker & Deal Cash Center, a pawnshop promising "instant cash" for DVDs, shotguns and bows and arrows. Not far from here, the first convention of the Republican Party was held in 1854.
When he won his state Senate seat in 2002, Schauer became the first Democrat to represent portions of Jackson County since 1899. Mapping out his campaign a year ago, Schauer assumed the Republican presidential nominee would carry the district, just as Bush did by more than eight percentage points in 2004. Instead, his internal polling shows Obama leading McCain by as many as nine points.
"It is truly kitchen-table economics," Schauer said. "We've got to stop the hemorrhaging."
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November 1, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
Gubernatorial Race In Wash. State Elicits That Deja Vu Feeling;
In Rematch, Rivals Again Tied in Polls
BYLINE: Karl Vick; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 1063 words
DATELINE: SEATTLE
In Washington state, all the elements are in place to make Nov. 4 feel a lot like Feb. 2. Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi are running for governor, and polls show a dead heat.
"It's pretty amazing. It was a dead-even tie four years ago, and most polls show it a dead-even tie this time," said Todd Donovan, a political scientist at Western Washington University. "There's a 'Groundhog Day' kind of thing to it."
In 2004, it took two months and three recounts to determine which candidate Washington voters had selected as their governor. Rossi, a Republican, was certified the winner first. But it was Democrat Gregoire who went on to spend the next four years in the governor's mansion, after a judge ruled that the final recount could include ballots discovered six weeks after voting ended. The official margin of 133 votes was .00475 percent of the 2.8 million ballots cast.
Rossi retreated to his commercial real estate business, wrote a book and awaited the rematch now unfolding across a state that has seen it all before. "Re-elect Rossi," read buttons in the overflow crowd that recently greeted the candidate in Silverdale, across Puget Sound from the governor's Seattle stronghold.
"We're going to finish what we started, folks," Rossi told the crowd. "Because of your help, we're going to win."
"Again."
Gregoire smiled a knowing smile in the booth of the diner where her mother worked as a short-order cook in what remains of downtown Auburn, now a Seattle suburb.
"Anger is a powerful incentive," the incumbent said, noting that Rossi's supporters spent four years simmering with him. "In June, people were pretty well locked in to where they were four years ago."
"It never ends -- literally," said Stuart Elway, a Seattle pollster. "This is a governor's race that's been going on for five years!"
In fact, a fair amount has changed since Round One. Gregoire has a record to defend. As governor, she has increased spending on education, health insurance for children and the environment. The expansion in government, including a rainy day fund, accompanied a surging state economy that added a quarter-million jobs and doubled exports.
The irrepressibly cheerful Rossi highlights his experience as a businessman and a successful budgeter, citing his work as chairman of the state Senate Ways and Means Committee. He calls Gregoire, who has worked only in state government, a captive of unions. She casts him as a hard-hearted conservative whose amiable sales patter obscures a social agenda out of line with the state's residents.
With the state government facing a $3.2 billion deficit amid falling tax revenue, the race sizes up as yet another referendum on whom to blame for the hard times voters see rumbling toward them.
"That's the million-dollar question," Donovan said. "How much are people going to blame her for the economic conditions, which aren't as bad here as they are in other states but are still down."
The ballot is also different. In the latest incarnation of Washington's ever-changing electoral system, candidates now appear on the ballot not as representatives of a party but as individuals who "prefer [fill-in-the-blank] party." Gregoire filled the blank "Democratic."
Rossi opted for "prefers GOP party."
"That is way smart," said Ryan Yokoyama, 23, from his perch at a seafood stand in Pike Place Market in downtown Seattle. Polling shows that a significant number of voters do not know that the abbreviation stands for Grand Old Party, a nickname for the Republican Party. Political professionals, including Gregoire, say that in a cycle in which President Bush has so degraded the value of the Republican brand, Rossi's choice of words could bring him as much as an additional 2 percent of the vote.
But the 2008 ballot also harbors potential for Gregoire. Because the Nov. 4 ballot is restricted to the top two vote-getters in the state's sole primary, the general election includes no third-party candidates who might bleed support from her Seattle base.
Rossi said the tight 2004 race was evidence of his crossover appeal, coining the term "Rossi-crats" years before "Obamacan" had entered the political lexicon.
"People have a different relationship with their governor than other offices," Rossi said in an interview. "They want to like their candidate for governor."
He offered the remark after listing liberal states -- Vermont, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Rhode Island -- that have Republican governors. But it also underscored misgivings about Gregoire's persona. Widely viewed as austere and even stern on camera, Gregoire is campaigning as "Chris" this time around; in 2004, she was "Christine."
Rossi still calls her that.
"He's a salesman," Gregoire said. "That's his profession. He keeps talking about change. Tries to saddle up next to Obama."
Gregoire's approval ratings, which started low after the recount soap opera, climbed above 50 percent early last year and have held steady. Public opinion surveys show voters' evaluations of state government as "not great, but the point is no clamor for change," said Elway, the pollster. "There's no throw-the-bums-out atmosphere."
Tough ads from both sides saturate Seattle television and provide grist on the stump. Gregoire tells of comforting an 8-year-old girl frightened by a "fearmongering" Rossi spot that said the state lost track of 1,300 sexual offenders. Rossi says Gregoire's spots distort his views on reducing the minimum wage, a potent issue in hard times.
The latest poll, released Monday by the University of Washington, showed the dead-even tie loosening and Gregoire ahead by six points.
The survey put Sen. Barack Obama's lead over Sen. John McCain at 21 points, or three times the margin Sen. John F. Kerry had over Bush in 2004. That theoretically offers down-ballot Democrats coattails three times as long.
Gregoire said she has learned the hard way to take nothing for granted.
"I know best," the candidate told volunteers setting out to canvass the suburb of Des Moines on a recent afternoon. "Every vote counts."
Rossi, cheered by the full house at the Silverdale community center, said he expects a different outcome from voters and the state's revamped electoral apparatus.
"It's the number one question I get all over the state," he said. "If I win it again, is the same thing going to happen?"
"I tell people, 'There's no way I'd do this again on the same playing field.' "
LOAD-DATE: November 1, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Kris Holland -- Associated Press; Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi play nice after a debate last month in Yakima, Wash. Rossi lost their 2004 face-off by 133 votes.
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November 1, 2008 Saturday
Met 2 Edition
True Believers In McCain Flock to Pa.
BYLINE: Eli Saslow; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1368 words
DATELINE: STATE COLLEGE, Pa.
He hated the helplessness of watching John McCain's efforts from afar, so Joe White, 62, loaded up his trailer in South Carolina and drove here last weekend. He set up camp in a Wal-Mart parking lot, bought a map of State College and started knocking on strangers' doors -- 25 houses per hour, 10 hours each day.
On Tuesday morning, more than four days and 1,100 houses into his trip, White approached a rancher with a McCain sign in the front yard. Beverly Blood, 71, answered the door.
"You're here for John McCain?" Blood said. "I'm for him, too, but some people are saying it's not looking so good."
"Well," White said, "I'm one of those people who thinks it's not over until the fat lady sings."
During the last two weeks, thousands of volunteers such as White have flocked to Pennsylvania -- the land of last resort for McCain's campaign. Among staffers and volunteers working frantically in this state, the typical line of thought goes like this: If McCain can somehow score an upset in Pennsylvania, he will earn 21 electoral votes, compensate for potential losses in some traditionally Republican states and narrowly defeat Sen. Barack Obama for the presidency. On their T-shirts and hats, McCain volunteers reduce the strategy to a simple slogan: Twenty-one.
It's the promise of twenty-one that persuaded McCain's campaign to redirect so many of its efforts to Pennsylvania; that drew McCain and vice presidential nominee Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to the state for eight rallies this week alone; that compelled McCain to confess to a crowd in Hershey, "We need to win in Pennsylvania on November the 4th."
Pennsylvania has not gone for a Republican candidate for president in 20 years, and several polls indicate Obama maintains a double-digit lead here. But, on an electoral map that looks increasingly grim for McCain in swing states such as Virginia, Colorado and Florida, advisers said they have reasons to hope in Pennsylvania. Obama lost badly to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in this state's primary, in part because he struggled to connect with white working-class voters. Because Pennsylvania does not allow early voting, McCain has more time to make his comeback.
For the strategy to work, McCain will have to woo unprecedented support from registered Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by more than 1.2 million. His campaign helped launch more than a dozen Democrats for McCain groups across the state, and it bused in Democratic volunteers from New Jersey and New York. Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a top fundraiser for Clinton's campaign, will spend several days speaking to Democrats on McCain's behalf.
"I think Pennsylvania could be a big surprise to the conventional thought in the Democratic Party," Rothschild said. "Pennsylvania is a conservative Democratic state, and John McCain can win it. We are targeting independents and Democrats, and they're just not comfortable with Barack Obama's plan for America, because it's outside of the mainstream. This is the most important thing I've done in politics. The election could turn right here."
Obama's campaign has responded to McCain's efforts by fortifying its own operation in Pennsylvania. Obama held a rally Tuesday in Chester, and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., visited four cities last week. Less than 16 hours after a Palin rally in State College on Tuesday night, Bill Clinton took the same stage and spoke on Obama's behalf.
"As unlikely as it is for them to succeed [in Pennsylvania], we've got to take that seriously, and we will," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.
Said McCain spokesman Peter Feldman: "Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as in play."
Which is why White, the South Carolina volunteer, decided to travel to this college town in central Pennsylvania last week. While driving through the state, he listened to a cycle of competing campaign commercials on radio stations and heard news broadcasts announcing one small-town presidential rally after the next. White had never volunteered for a presidential candidate before, but he thinks that McCain would make a better guardian of the country than Obama. "I think we'll be safer with him as commander in chief, and that's too important to mess with," White said.
He took a 10-day vacation from his small business as a medical supplier and signed up for a volunteer program called McCain's Mavericks. When he arrived in State College, he visited McCain's local office to procure a list of addresses for registered voters.
As he trudged through the snow, White drew enough cold stares to understand McCain's challenge. For the first time in 30 years, Centre County has more registered Democrats than Republicans -- the result of a 10,000-person registration drive for Obama at Penn State University. Among its 100,000 voters, Centre now has 5,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. White knocked on the doors of enough bitter conservatives to learn that "these kind of places are just getting more liberal."
But White also learned enough about politics in Pennsylvania to maintain his optimism. Even two of the state's most powerful Democrats -- Gov. Edward G. Rendell and Rep. John P. Murtha -- seemed to suggest McCain had a chance. Rendell told a reporter that, "the undecideds are most likely not going to go in Obama's direction." Murtha recently told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that "there is no question western Pennsylvania is a racist area," a comment that has put his own reelection in jeopardy even though he apologized. A new Mason-Dixon poll this week showed Obama's lead in Pennsylvania at a tenuous 4 percent -- though other polls still show him with a larger margin.
"We're really ahead in this election, but we're not going to let anybody know until next Tuesday," White told one McCain supporter who answered the door. "You'd be surprised how many people I've already talked to around here who said they just won't vote for Obama. I'm telling you, there's a whole community of us."
The McCain believers showed up en masse Tuesday night on the Penn State campus, forming a 7,000-person line in the snow for a chance to attend a Palin rally in a student gymnasium. They came to see the potential vice president, but many supporters said they were more impressed by the crowd. Three thousand people crammed onto the floor, two levels of arena seats filled to capacity and hundreds of people waved McCain signs. It was a visual reinforcement of Republican support.
Alex Smith, a Penn State junior and the president of the College Republicans, stood shirtless in the upper deck, his chest painted with a purple "C" to help spell out "MAVERICK." He had been teased regularly for the last three months, an outsider on a campus dominated by Obama supporters. Now, he gestured at the crowd. "It feels good to be around like minds," he said.
Ken Pasch, a 55-year-old independent, helped direct traffic near the stage. He had "pinballed between Obama and McCain" before finally deciding to support McCain three weeks ago. "I think there's a chance McCain can take it," he said. "Otherwise, I wouldn't be here."
Mitch Hagmaier, a 36-year-old Democrat, stood near the entrance and pointed out a handful of other Democrats he recognized in the crowd. A self-described "national security" voter, Hagmaier had decided to support McCain after Obama defeated Clinton in the Democratic primary. For the last three weeks, Hagmaier had volunteered in McCain's State College office six days each week, calling undecided voters from 5:30 p.m. until 9 p.m.
"If McCain can hit Pennsylvania, he has it made," Hagmaier said. "It's striking how many registered Democrats are here or working in the office. We're starting to get some momentum going our way. With Palin coming here, and this crowd, you can feel it starting to turn."
But after Palin spoke, the crowd exited the arena to a somber reminder of the difficult task ahead. More than two hundred Obama supporters stood across the street, handing out bumper stickers and waving signs. As the Palin crowd walked by, a few student Democrats held up a sign showing Obama's lead in the Pennsylvania polls, and began to taunt.
"Scoreboard," they chanted, over and over.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Carol Guzy -- The Washington Post; Joe White, a volunteer who drove from South Carolina to canvass for McCain, shows Beverly Blood and her dog Zoey a photo of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin from a rally at Penn State University.
IMAGE; Photos By Carol Guzy -- The Washington Post; During the last two weeks, thousands of volunteers such as Joe White have flocked to Pennsylvania to canvass for McCain.
IMAGE; After White got a list of addresses for registered voters in State College, he got to work.
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The Washington Post
November 1, 2008 Saturday
Met 2 Edition
Battling on the Other Side's Turf;
Obama Presence in Rural Va. Symbolizes Effort to Compete Across the Map
BYLINE: Kevin Merida; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 2333 words
DATELINE: CHASE CITY, Va.
Highway 47 winds past Elke's Dog Resort, past the big yard full of old tires and shiny hubcaps, and the barren, barbed-wired fields with horses in the distance. Like many small towns in rural America, this one has a Main Street, which you'll come to soon enough, and right there next to the Municipal Building is the first presidential campaign office that longtime residents can remember seeing.
Sen. Barack Obama's field office here was once a dress shop but is now the hub for a four-county voter turnout operation in Southside Virginia, where Democrats typically get clobbered. The roster of Democratic politicians who have been whipped in this region is impressive. Take Mecklenburg County, where Chase City is located: Jim Webb was beaten here by 19 points in 2006, Tim Kaine by 12 points in 2005, John Kerry by 16 points in 2004, Al Gore by 16 points in 2000. Even Mark Warner, the most successful Democrat of note in Southside Virginia, lost in Mecklenburg County en route to winning the governorship in 2001.
That Obama would open an office here, one of at least 49 across the state, is as much a curiosity as it is a symbol of the campaign's efforts to stretch the electoral map well beyond traditional Democratic territory. It is a strategy that is testing the relationship between politics and community, especially in small towns like Chase City, where the canvassers are local volunteers who often eat, pray and shop with those whose votes they are soliciting.
Gayle Clancy, who has lived here for 22 years and owns the Main Street Cafe, views the Obama office as a marvel, even though she never votes, will not vote next week, and considers politics a dirty business "all the way down to town politics." Still. "This is the first time I remember seeing a presidential campaign office since I've been living here. Absolutely. I was very, very surprised. I was like, 'Wow!' They're there until 10 o'clock at night sometimes."
Recently, the Obama campaign office had a bomb scare -- false alarm -- and the mere fact of it became a happening. A package received in the mail contained a smudged return address from Chevy Chase, Md., and because volunteers weren't expecting the parcel -- and had been alerted by the campaign hierarchy to report suspicious mailings -- local police were called. This set in motion a five-hour chain of events that included evacuating the office and an adjacent building, yellow-taping the block, calling in the Virginia State Police, the Mecklenburg County Sheriff's Department and the city's volunteer fire department and rescue squad, and notifying federal authorities.
"They even sent in the little robot," said Clancy. She was referring to the state's bomb-detecting robot, whose presence elicited oohs and ahhs from the gathered crowd. In the end, all the commotion was over a padded manila envelope containing Obama buttons and bumper stickers donated by a Montgomery County couple.
Volunteers working long hours to mine votes in Southside Virginia -- the region east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and south of the James River -- have had bigger problems than false bomb scares. Barry Carter, a small-business owner and chairman of the Occoneechee tribe in Virginia, bought 200 signs through the Democratic Party and put them up in the Clarksville area of Mecklenburg. He soon discovered that more than 150 of them had disappeared, and a handful more were slashed, he said. The peculiar thing, Carter noted, was that the Obama signs had been placed next to those of Democratic congressional candidate Tom Perriello, and his signs were untouched. "Both are Democrats. They're running on similar issues," Carter said of Obama and Perriello. "In our mind, it's a racial issue."
Carter reported the signs as stolen to the Mecklenburg County Sheriff's Department. "Every campaign, we have problems with signs somewhere," said Maj. James Snead, the chief deputy sheriff, who said patrols had been beefed up in the neighborhoods where the Obama signs had disappeared.
While a recent Washington Post poll had Obama with an eight-point lead in the state, the difficulties in Southside Virginia cannot be underestimated. Democrats have long struggled in rural America. According to polling data, Obama trails Sen. John McCain among rural voters both nationally and in Virginia, pulling 40 percent in the nation and 43 percent in the state. Those percentages roughly match Sen. John F. Kerry's performance in 2004.
The 5th Congressional District contains the heart of Southside, landscape that is both flat and hilly and steeped in history. This is where Robert E. Lee surrendered and Harry Byrd resisted school integration, where textile mills died and tobacco production is mostly a romantic memory. The district's politics are conservative, as embodied by six-term congressman Virgil Goode. Elected as a Democrat in 1996 -- perhaps the most conservative House Democrat in the nation -- he soon found political life too uncomfortable under his own party's banner and ran for reelection in 2000 as an independent. He switched parties in 2002, and has been running successfully as a Republican ever since.
McCain has but 21 offices in the state, and no heavy presence in Southside, but he has Goode and George Allen and Jerry Kilgore, all Republicans who have done well here. "We think we're going to do very well in all of Southside," said McCain spokeswoman Gail Gitcho. "They're always going to have more offices than us, more staff than us, more money than us. But we have our battle-tested staff and volunteers who know how to win Virginia."
Not many political observers are betting on Obama in Southside -- even Obama supporters are uncertain. But campaign spokesman Clark Stevens said making the effort is the point. "It's important for us to have a presence in as many communities as we can. We are out in areas that may be traditionally more Republican, but we are interested in connecting with as many voters as possible. Offices are about giving members of the community the tools they need and the information they need to make a decision on November 4th."
* * *
Chase City, 80 miles southwest of Richmond, is where the Obama campaign decided to concentrate its forces for the Southside battle. It is a town of 2,457 people, according to Census Bureau figures, and is 54 percent white and 45 percent black. Those demographics have not put a dent in the GOP hold on the region, but Obama volunteers are hoping that a surge in black voter turnout will help this time. Not to mention some surprises. Former longtime mayor A. Duke Reid, whom volunteers had counted as a McCain supporter, recently indicated he was backing the senator from Illinois instead. Looking back on his 10 years as mayor, Reid linked his service to what he believes Obama is trying to do through his candidacy. "I guess the biggest thing I've always wanted in Chase City is to make sure we had no racial divides," said Reid, who is white. "There's not a single black person in town who could say I'm pro-white."
Chase City sees itself as an ideal retirement community: simple but affordable, with Main Street all spruced up, courtesy of a state grant and a $1.2 million renovation. The downtown streets are freshly paved, the concrete sidewalks redone to look like painted brick, the new street lights are fastened with flapping banners that read: "A city for all seasons." Amid the modern polish is the gritty country charm: Mom-and-pop general stores where you can get gas and fried chicken. A pawnshop that advertises loans without credit checks and cash in 15 minutes. The hot debate in town is whether to back or derail a planned ethanol plant in the county. And the hot item at the Main Street Cafe is the pulled-pork sandwich.
Finch Parker remembers when Chase City had three car dealerships, a shirt factory, a shoe factory, a soft-drink bottling factory, a department store. Of course, Finch Parker is 92. "Years ago, you'd ride the street to find a place to park," he said. "People would come from other counties to shop. Every Saturday. You don't see that no more."
Things changed, and Parker bought a farm four miles outside of town, but he still comes into town. Every morning at 7, you can find him at the Main Street Cafe eating breakfast in his jeans and boots. That's been his ritual since his wife died in spring of 2007. Breakfast in town, life on the farm. And he still trail-rides horses.
"I don't get tied up in politics," Parker said. "I leave that to the other man. That way I won't make a mistake." But that doesn't stop the people in politics from coming to see him.
Obama volunteers have been to his farm on multiple occasions, trying to lock down this one vote. Parker, whom everyone in town seems to know, might bring others with him, the reasoning goes. The volunteers usually catch him out in his yard, sometimes playing with his dogs or horses. "They tell me I've gotten too old to be fooling around with horses," Parker recalled. They also tell him "how the United States is in terrible shape," courtesy of the Bush administration, he said.
Parker set up a ring in his yard so local kids could be taken around for a loop on one of his steeds, just like at a carnival. One day Obama volunteers showed up with their children to ride Parker's horse. You've got to give them credit for initiative, Parker said. But he's not sure about voting Obama, or voting at all. "I've just got to study it out. Figure it out," he said.
While Finch Parker was being worked on, Obama volunteers were also paying visits to William Thomas, who has one dental practice in town and another nearby. The first visit was about a month ago. He wasn't home; they talked to his wife. The second time was a couple of weeks ago. Thomas was out cutting his grass. He told the Obama volunteer then that he was undecided. "I think what I'd like to see is a little bit of both of them," Thomas said, referring to Obama and McCain. Of course, a split vote is not possible. Joe the Plumber and concerns about taxes going up in an Obama administration has Thomas leaning toward McCain.
The Obama volunteers -- as many as 100 work out of Chase City -- are not easily discouraged. Some put in eight to 10 hours a day. Some make 600 to 800 calls a day. Some wonder how they even came to be there. Madolyn Hayne had been retired for 12 years when she got a cold call from Obama field organizer Steve Spencer in August asking for her help staffing the office.
"What do you need me to do?" Hayne replied.
"Come up to the office," Spencer said, "and we'll let you know."
What she didn't want to do, she told him, was canvass neighborhoods, or work phone banks. But she used to be a secretary, and Spencer said that was exactly what the campaign needed: someone to log into a computer the record of voters reached by phone and whether they are for or against Obama or are undecided. That she could do, Hayne said. "I've never been involved in a campaign before. Never." She figures Spencer must have found her name on some Democratic list. "I never meant to work this hard," Hayne said, but the work somehow became infectious. "It's the best job I've ever had and the hardest I've ever worked for the least amount of money." Which is to say no money at all.
Some Chase City residents consider their participation a calling. "How did we get involved? We basically obeyed the spirit," said Jean Goode. "When the Lord says move, you move."
And move is something her husband does well, all over town, but slowly, deliberately. When the Rev. James Goode of Silone Baptist Church comes calling, folks listen.
* * *
Goode cruised past the Tastee Freeze, turned on Washington Street and pulled his silver '95 Bonneville to the curb. He left the motor running. Goode is 82 with curly white hair combed back. He has been a Democrat all his life, always remembering what his mother told him when he was a boy, after the family had suffered through the Great Depression: Never vote Republican because it will get you in trouble. "She was pretty much right," he said.
Curtis L. Jones, 69, was mixing paint on his porch when he saw Goode's car pull up. He came to the street to chat.
"I know you to be a Democrat," the preacher began, holding his lists of voters.
"I'm a Democrat," Jones replied, "but I told you I don't vote for nobody."
"You going to vote this year?" Goode continued.
"I'm too old now," Jones said. "I'll put it to you this way: I came up the hard way." And Jones started into his rap about the hard way, the odds growing up, the segregation, the lack of opportunity, etc.
Goode listened for a bit, patient, but finally cut him off. "Let's get back to Obama." Goode knew Jones, knew he was stubborn. Jones cut grass down at the church. Goode appealed to Jones's sense of history, and pleaded a better life for future generations.
"I know what you're saying, Rev. But I don't vote. My wife vote, but I don't. I ain't giving you no short answer."
Finally, Goode conceded. "Okay." He turned to leave and opened the door to his running Bonneville. One final thought, Goode had. "Will you say a prayer for him?" he called out to Jones.
Jones promised to pray for Obama, and mentioned again that his wife and sister-in-law would be voting for Obama, and then went back on his porch to stir paint. "No hard feelings," he shouted to Goode. "I hope y'all win."
Goode would make several more stops, hearing from a woman wearing a tattered robe who said she'd "probably" vote for Obama, and hearing from a man who desperately wanted Obama yard signs that were in short supply. He stopped to see Marvin Hatcher, the local fire chief who has a medical transport business and promised to provide rides to the polls. But as he was cruising back to the office, he kept thinking about Curtis L. Jones.
"He's a good guy," Goode said. "I thought he always voted. I can't figure out why he doesn't."
The preacher was thinking that maybe he'd make one more run at Curtis L. Jones before Election Day.
Polling director Jon Cohen contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: November 1, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Virginia
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jahi Chikwendiu -- The Washington Post; The Rev. James Goode, 82, is among many volunteers in Chase City, Va., doing their best to get out the vote for Sen. Barack Obama.
IMAGE; Photos By Jahi Chikwendiu -- The Washington Post; Volunteers Qu'Amere Brantley, right, and the Rev. James Goode go door to door in Chase City, trying to secure votes for Sen. Barack Obama. Victory in the area would be a significant feat.
IMAGE; Chase City has about 2,500 people -- 54 percent of them white and 45 percent of them black. Despite the demographics, it is GOP country.
IMAGE; "I don't get tied up in politics," says Finch Parker, 92. But Obama volunteers are courting him.
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The Washington Post
November 1, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
NAMES & FACES
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C03
LENGTH: 600 words
Making History Ahead of Time
Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Garry Trudeau is putting his money (and ink) on Barack Obama. Trudeau's "Doonesbury" comic strip for next Wednesday -- already submitted and sent to newspaper editors across the country -- declares the Illinois Democrat the victor of Tuesday's presidential contest.
"If I didn't call the election, I'd have no premise for the week and be forced to write about something else. I didn't want to write about something else. This is history," Trudeau told our colleague Michael Cavna, who writes The Post's Comic Riffs blog.
Trudeau calls his prediction "rational risk assessment." "Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight.com is now giving McCain a 3.7 percent chance of winning -- pretty comfortable odds," he said. "If Obama wins, I'm in the flow and commenting on a phenomenon. If he loses, it'll be a massive upset, and the goofy misprediction of a comic strip will be pretty much lost in the uproar." (Hmm. Last time we checked, newspaper editors aren't huge fans of "goofy mispredictions.")
Trudeau's syndicate confirmed as much yesterday. Universal Press Syndicate had already received a dozen calls and e-mails from newspaper editors requesting substitution "Doonesbury" strips, rep Kathie Kerr said.
"Some of them haven't made a decision about running them, but they do want access to them," Kerr said. "Still, that's not a huge percentage, considering the size of Garry's client list," which includes about 1,400 newspapers, this one among them.
The Washington Post plans to run the strip as scheduled.
Gun Found in Hudson Family Case
Forensic testing has confirmed that a gun recovered by Chicago police Wednesday was the weapon used to kill actress and singer Jennifer Hudson's mother, brother and nephew, the Chicago Tribune reported yesterday.
Police found the .45-caliber Sig Sauer semiautomatic pistol in the bushes of a vacant lot, one block away from where a white Chevy Suburban containing the body of Hudson's 7-year-old nephew, Julian King, was found Monday. King had been missing since last Friday, when police found Hudson's mother, Darnell Donerson, 57, and brother, Jason Hudson, 29, shot to death on Chicago's South Side.
Sources told the Tribune that unfired bullets in the gun matched the make and model of shell casings found at the crime scene. Federal officials had also traced the gun to its original owner in Michigan, who reported it stolen. Now officials are trying to figure out how it got to Chicago.
William Balfour, estranged husband of Jennifer Hudson's sister, Julia, remains in custody after being questioned. He has not been charged in the slayings.
Armani Gets More Beckham Spice
Armani just can't get enough Beckham: Hot on the heels of David Beckham's racy Armani underwear ads comes word that wife Victoria Beckham will be the spokeswoman for the fashion house's new lingerie line.
The company said Friday that Beckham will debut in the spring-summer 2009 advertising campaign for Emporio Armani women's underwear.
If the modeling gig isn't praise enough, Armani called the former "Posh Spice" of the Spice Girls a "style icon, a dynamic lady whose influence and recognition will add great excitement" to the ad campaign.
End Quote
"I think she wants to just be not pregnant anymore. . . . It's a struggle to go up and down the stairs. Going out in public is insane." -- Fall Out Boy bassist Pete Wentz, 29, on his "very pregnant" wife, singer Ashlee Simpson-Wentz, 24. Wentz told DJ Ryan Seacrest on Thursday that Simpson-Wentz is due to give birth any minute.
-- Marissa Newhall, from staff, wire and Web reports
LOAD-DATE: November 1, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Toby Talbot -- Associated Press; Drawing conclusions: Garry Trudeau's "Doonesbury," which is submitted in advance, declares Obama, left, the winner.
IMAGE
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The New York Times
October 31, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Hitting the Backroads, And Having Less to Say
BYLINE: By JOHN M. BRODER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 903 words
DATELINE: WILLIAMSPORT, Pa.
On Wednesday, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, played before a couple of thousand people at a minor-league ballpark in Florida. On Thursday, Mr. Biden drew fewer than 1,000 in a college gymnasium in this Pennsylvania city, home to the Little League World Series.
That is not to say that the man who has taken to calling himself Joe the Biden is strictly small-time. He appeared Wednesday night before an estimated 20,000 people at the BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla. (However, he was the undercard for a guy named Obama.)
With the political world fixated on the Barack Obama phenomenon and the Sarah Palin curiosity, Mr. Biden is flying low, speaking at smaller locations and in out-of-the-way towns in battleground states. While he avoids the national news media, fearing a major gaffe, he has done an estimated 200 interviews with local television and radio stations and regularly appears on the front pages of newspapers in places like Williamsport; Greenville, N.C.; and Danville, Va.
The Biden operation feels more like an early primary enterprise than a campaign in the final week of an intensely contested presidential race. His traveling entourage is relatively small. And the crowds at his rallies -- lately numbering in the low thousands, rather than the low hundreds seen earlier this fall -- are dwarfed by those who come out for Senator Obama, of Illinois; Senator John McCain of Arizona; and Governor Palin, of Alaska.
Yet at the Biden rallies, there is a genuine enthusiasm among the people, who sense the historic nature of the race and for whom a speech by Mr. Biden is as close as they will get this year to seeing a national candidate.
Many at the Biden stops know only the outlines of his biography, but they all know that he has spent much of his life in the Senate, is a foreign-policy expert and is not Ms. Palin, his counterpart on the Republican ticket. They tend to be quite a bit older than the people who show up at Obama events, and, naturally, they are partisans.
An unscientific sample of Florida voters was given a short word-association test this week.
Joe Biden?
''Change,'' said Patrice Kelly, 55, a commercial photographer from Jupiter.
''Good guy,'' said Walt Huston, 57, an unemployed former furniture-store manager from Ocala.
''He speaks his mind,'' said Zonnie Woods, 64, a retired teacher from McIntosh. ''I love him, O.K.?''
Dave Bowden, 65, of Leesburg, a publisher of training manuals for music teachers, said, ''Honest.'' As for the Alaska governor, Mr. Bowden said, ''I think she's gorgeous but, bless her heart, she's not ready to be president of the United States.''
Somewhat Silenced
On the trail this fall, Mr. Biden has curbed his noted volubility -- or, rather, had it curbed for him by his masters at Obama headquarters, in Chicago. He never goes to the press section of his campaign plane to talk to the reporters who accompany him, he has not held a news conference since early September and he does not take questions from his audiences (not since he told one person that he thought Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York would have been a better choice for vice president). Then again, Mr. Biden's assignment does not include outreach to the national news media.
Still, Mr. Biden has not been fully silenced, leading even Mr. Obama to chide him for what Mr. Obama referred to diplomatically as ''rhetorical flourishes.'' Some Biden musings last week about Mr. Obama most likely being tested by a hostile power in his early months in office were turned into an attack advertisement by the McCain campaign and a spoof on ''Saturday Night Live.''
These days, Mr. Biden races through his thoroughly vetted stump speech, sometimes delivering it in as few as 15 minutes -- a mere throat-clearing for the old Joe Biden. He reads from a teleprompter, altering the text only slightly to mention the place where he is speaking and the local dignitaries who are present. (Mr. Biden will also occasionally slip in a geographically appropriate pander. ''How 'bout them Phillies?'' he said in Williamsport of the team that won the World Series. And on Wednesday in South Florida, he mentioned his longtime support for Israel.)
Connecting With Voters
A national poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press released last week found that 60 percent of respondents viewed Mr. Biden favorably, while 44 percent had a similar view of Ms. Palin.
Surveys indicate that he is well regarded in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, states where he has been spending a large share of his time and where his task is to attract blue-collar workers, Roman Catholics and older people.
Because of the lighter security cordon around him, Mr. Biden can connect with voters in a more visceral way than Mr. Obama. Last week, at an ice-cream shop in Charleston, W.Va., he spoke in a whisper for five minutes with Sara Beal, a young woman who had suffered a ruptured brain aneurysm like the one that almost killed him 20 years ago.
During a stop on Tuesday in Titusville, Fla., he met a 1-year-old named Hunter. That happens to be the name of Mr. Biden's younger son, who is traveling with the campaign this week.
Mr. Biden fetched Hunter Biden, 38, from the motorcade and introduced him to the toddler. ''Hey Hunter,'' the senator said. ''Meet Hunter.''
And the old man, bless his heart, was beaming.
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LOAD-DATE: October 31, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Joseph R. Biden Jr., on Thursday in Williamsport, Pa., has been visiting out-of-the-way places and reining in his talkativeness.(PHOTOGRAPH BY OZIER MUHAMMAD/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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The New York Times
October 31, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
For Incomes Below $100,000, a Better Tax Break in Obama's Plan
BYLINE: By STEVEN GREENHOUSE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 14
LENGTH: 1024 words
Independent analyses of the presidential candidates' tax proposals show that those who make less than $250,000 a year would not see their taxes raised under Senator Barack Obama's plans. Further, Mr. Obama would generally cut taxes more than Senator John McCain would for households with incomes less than $100,000 a year.
Mr. McCain would cut taxes generally on par with Mr. Obama for those making $100,000 to $250,000 a year, the analyses found, but those making $250,000 a year and above would typically pay less in taxes under Mr. McCain.
The analyses were conducted independently by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, and Deloitte, the accounting giant, at the request of The New York Times.
Mr. McCain has been sounding the traditional Republican tax-cutting theme, trying to convince voters that Mr. Obama, the Democratic nominee, wants to increase taxes and spread the wealth like a socialist.
Helped by the emergence of Joe the Plumber and using Mr. Obama's own words, Mr. McCain has insisted that Mr. Obama's tax policies would hurt small businesses and upwardly mobile individuals, while providing welfare for low-income Americans.
Mr. Obama has been fighting those accusations in stump speeches and commercials, in recent days asking members of his audience to raise their hands if they made less than $250,000 a year. Fewer than 3 percent of households make more than $250,000.
But the tax proposals are complicated, and tax bills are affected by personal variables. Analysts at the Tax Policy Center and Deloitte tried to explain the ramifications of the candidates' plans by applying their tax policies to various situations.
Roberton Williams, principal research associate at the Tax Policy Center, said the analysis found that: ''On the average, people with income below $100,000 would get more from Obama than from McCain. From $100,000 to $250,000, they'd be fairly even under Obama and McCain. For those over $250,000, Obama increases taxes.''
Mr. McCain's plan includes extending President Bush's income-tax cuts and doubling exemptions for dependent children to $7,000 by 2016. He would also give a refundable tax credit to households that buy health insurance and would impose taxes on employer-provided coverage.
Mr. Obama opposes extending President Bush's tax cuts. Instead, he proposes various tax breaks, including a $500 tax credit for each person in a household who works, a larger child care tax credit, a $4,000 tax credit each year for the first two years of college, and eliminating all income taxes for those over 65 with income less than $50,000 a year.
To reduce the deficit and inequality, he would raise the tax rate for single households with incomes of $200,000 or more and for families with incomes over $250,000. He would also raise taxes on capital gains and dividends.
The median household income nationwide is $50,233, according to the Census Bureau. The Tax Policy Center found that, for married couples with incomes of $50,000, two children and both parents working, income taxes would be cut by $284 more under Mr. Obama's plan -- by $1,005, compared with $721 under Mr. McCain's plan.
Deloitte also examined such a couple and found similar benefits; a $700 cut under Mr. McCain's plan and $1,000 under Mr. Obama's.
For married couples with incomes of $500,000 with two children and both parents working, the Tax Policy Center found that Mr. Obama would raise income taxes by $3,363, from $110,955 now, while Mr. McCain's plans would leave taxes unchanged. Deloitte found that a $500,000-a-year couple would pay $3,100 more under Mr. Obama, with no change under Mr. McCain.
Clint Stretch, Deloitte's managing principal of tax policy, said most families would benefit under Mr. McCain's plan because of an increased exemption for each child. That, he said, would reduce taxes for low-income families by about $230 per child and for high-income families by about $800.
To help low-income families in particular, Mr. Obama would give a ''Making Work Pay Credit'' equal to 6.2 percent of a worker's first $8,100 in wages. That would yield a tax credit of $500 for a single person, and $1,000 for a couple in which both adults work. As a result, a low-income couple now paying no income taxes might receive a $1,000 refund.
But Mr. McCain has told audiences that Mr. Obama's ''plan gives away your tax dollars to those who don't pay taxes. That's not a tax cut, that's welfare.''
Mr. Obama responded last week in Kansas City, Mo.: ''McCain is so out of touch with the struggles you are facing that he must be the first politician in history to call a tax cut for working people welfare.''
Mr. Obama wants to eliminate income taxes for people over age 65 who earn less than $50,000 a year. So under his plan, a single person that age with income of $50,000 would experience a $2,339 tax cut, according to the Tax Policy Center. Under Mr. McCain's plans, that person's taxes would remain unchanged.
''What Obama's doing,'' said Mr. Stretch of Deloitte, ''is he's taking more money from people like me, and spending it on exemptions for the elderly and on tax credits for education.''
But Mr. Stretch added, ''When Obama says he cuts taxes for every working family under $150,000, I'd say that's true.''
A single head of household with one child and $15,000 in income now receives a tax refund of $3,859, largely because of the earned income tax credit, according to the Tax Policy Center. That refund would increase by $500 under Mr. Obama's plan. Under Mr. McCain's plan there would be no change for that taxpayer.
According to Deloitte's calculations, a single taxpayer who earns $35,000 a year and has no children would get a $500 tax cut under Mr. Obama's plan -- to $3,000 a year from the current $3,500. Mr. McCain would leave that person's taxes unchanged.
Mr. McCain also proposes giving many households a $5,000 tax credit when they buy family health insurance, which costs $12,000 nationwide on average. But households would for the first time have to pay taxes on employer-provided insurance.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 31, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: PHOTO: A show of hands at an Obama rally Thursday after the candidate asked who made less than $250,000. Senator Barack Obama says those audience members would benefit from his plan.(PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES) CHART: Case Studies of Tax Proposals: Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama have proposed significant changes to the tax code. Mr. Obama's proposals include a tuition tax credit, while Mr. McCain's include one for health insurance, as well as a plan to tax health insurance obtained through employers. Here is how those proposals would affect people in different income groups, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.(Sources: Tax Policy Center) Chart details total income tax. (pg. A22)
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The New York Times
October 31, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
With Ambitious Campaign, Obama Is Both Big Spender and Penny Pincher
BYLINE: By MICHAEL LUO and MIKE McINTIRE; Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 18
LENGTH: 1274 words
Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign has collected a record-shattering $640 million, but only two of his staff members are among the 15 highest-paid workers in the general election, according to campaign finance records. The rest, including the three highest paid, are employed by Senator John McCain.
The Obama campaign, despite having more than 700 field offices across the country, compared with fewer than 400 for Mr. McCain, has spent slightly less on rent than its counterpart.
And even though Mr. Obama has raised $400 million more than Mr. McCain, he has spent less on fund-raising consultants.
Mr. Obama has devoted enormous sums in this election to nearly everything, including more than $280 million for advertising and $31 million for his campaign's payroll. His half-hour prime-time commercial on Wednesday, which cost well over $3 million, was perhaps the most visible flexing of his financial muscle.
But the Obama campaign, under the watchful eye of its manager, David Plouffe, has worked hard to maintain a reputation for frugality. The campaign has escaped the glare that has come with spending excesses that dogged other candidates, including the millions that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton handed to her pollster Mark Penn, John Edwards's $400 haircuts and the large outlays for consultants and other expenses that nearly bankrupted Mr. McCain's primary campaign last year.
''It's both extravagant and frugal at the same time,'' Joe Trippi, a former top adviser to Mr. Edwards and the manager of Howard Dean's campaign in 2004, said about Mr. Obama's operation. ''Extravagant in its mission and ambition but frugal in how they implemented it.''
McCain campaign officials pointed to steps they have taken to save money, a challenge made urgent after the campaign's implosion last year. But the campaign has also had far less to work with, constrained by the $84 million given to it for the general election under the public financing system.
Having opted out of public financing, Mr. Obama has spent far more than the combined total spent by President Bush and Senator John Kerry in 2004, according to Federal Election Commission records.
The Obama campaign's gaping advantage is sharpest in its advertising budget and payroll. Last week, the Obama campaign spent nearly twice as much as Mr. McCain and the Republican National Committee on television advertising. Mr. Obama's payroll had nearly 800 employees in the first half of October, twice as many as Mr. McCain's, with far more Obama-paid workers in closely contested states than McCain-paid workers.
Nevertheless, a review of F.E.C. records shows that the Obama campaign has used several methods to keep expenses down.
Both campaigns have relied heavily on volunteers. The Obama campaign has increased its ranks beyond salaried employees who receive regular paychecks and benefits by enlisting hundreds of local per diem workers for get-out-the-vote efforts. The Obama campaign has made $3.2 million in per diem payments, many no more than a few hundred dollars and most often made for brief periods during the Democratic primaries. The McCain campaign has reported relatively few per diem expenditures.
Unlike its Republican counterpart, the Obama campaign has frequently used a provision in campaign finance law that allows supporters to donate work space for the campaign. The campaign has credited more than 250 people with making in-kind rent contributions totaling $210,000.
When Mr. Obama's field workers arrived in Kentucky before that state's primary in May, Flora Templeton Stuart, a lawyer in Bowling Green, offered to make her office and its seven phone lines available on weekends and evenings for about three weeks. The campaign booked a $100 in-kind contribution from Ms. Stuart, who said she felt more than compensated by being invited to stand behind the stage when Mr. Obama spoke at an event.
''My reward,'' she said, ''was to hug him.''
The use of in-kind donations for office space can be problematic if the estimated value is substantially lower than what it would cost to rent the same space on the open market. Kenneth A. Gross, a lawyer in Washington who specializes in election law, said the F.E.C. was usually reluctant to challenge a campaign's estimates as long as some in-kind credit had been recorded.
To be sure, a close look at campaign finance data shows that the Obama campaign has indulged in its share of luxuries. It has spent more than $5 million on renting arenas and other places for Mr. Obama's sprawling campaign events. Obama campaign officials also appear to have devoted significantly more than Mr. McCain's organization to polling, about $3.8 million since July, compared with just over $1.1 million for the McCain campaign.
The Obama campaign spent more than $57,000 at the Four Seasons in Amman, Jordan, during the candidate's overseas trip in July, although a spokesman said that much of that was for rooms for the traveling press corps and that the campaign would be reimbursed by the news organizations. The campaign spent about $60,000 on the staging for Mr. Obama's speech in Berlin on that trip. Then there is the $140,000 that the campaign has spent at companies that make American flags, apparently mostly for campaign events, compared with just $7,000 spent by the McCain campaign.
But these seem to be more the exception than the rule.
The three highest-paid staff members in the presidential campaign since July, when the general election campaign began in earnest, were Mark Salter, Mr. McCain's speechwriter; Robert DeServi, who produces the campaign's events; and Trey Walker, who manages Mr. McCain's campaign in the mid-Atlantic region. The highest-paid Obama staff member was Julianna Smoot, his finance director.
The Obama campaign's rules for limiting expenses are strict. Workers at the Chicago headquarters are reimbursed for trips to the airport only if they take public transportation. Staff members on the road receive a $30 per diem for meals, compared with $40 for members of the McCain campaign. In the primaries, the Obama campaign required workers to drive if they were going somewhere less than a five-hour drive away.
''Even though the budget was large,'' Mr. Plouffe said, ''because of the aggressiveness of the strategy, you really have to watch every dollar.''
The best-compensated people in campaigns are usually not staff members but consultants. Media consultants have typically received some of the biggest paydays from presidential campaigns, earning 6 to 7 percent of the total advertising purchases by Democrats in the last several elections. The Republicans saved money in 2004 by paying flat fees to their media strategists. Democratic campaigns, including Mr. Obama's, began clamping down as well in this election, capping the fees.
Mr. Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, said his firm, where Mr. Plouffe is a partner but is on leave, is likely to collect about 1 percent of the total amount spent on advertising. Democratic media consultants divided amongst themselves nearly $9 million in 2004, approximately what the Bush campaign paid its consultants for a more extensive advertising effort. Mr. Axelrod said he believed that the media firms involved in the Obama campaign would collect a similar amount, even though it has aired tens of millions of dollars more in advertisements.
Mr. Axelrod likes to joke that at the Obama headquarters, if someone waves a hand in front of the automated paper towel dispenser in the men's room, a section of paper towel is dispensed; wave at it again and a note spits out, ''See Plouffe.''
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USA TODAY
October 31, 2008 Friday
FINAL EDITION
GOP takes new approach in ads for Senate contests;
Ads seem to suggest that Democrats will win many seats
BYLINE: Ken Dilanian
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 639 words
WASHINGTON -- In the waning days of the 2008 elections, Republicans from the top of the ticket on down are making a remarkable appeal: Vote for me, because the rest of my party seems headed for defeat.
A spate of new ads paid for by the National Republican Senatorial Committee are premised on Barack Obama beating John McCain. Some even say that Democrats could pick up enough Senate seats to have a filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes. McCain, meanwhile, is arguing that a vote for him is a check against a Democrat-dominated Congress.
"Sending Jeff Merkley to the U.S. Senate could give one party a blank check ... again," says an announcer in an ad for Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, a Republican in a close race with Merkley, a Democrat. "Especially in this economy, Oregon needs an independent voice in the U.S. Senate."
In North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is at risk of losing to Democrat Kay Hagan, the announcer intones, "Who's the Senate race really about? Hagan or Dole? Neither one. It's about liberals in Washington. They want complete control of the government ... The left wants 60 votes in the Senate."
In Louisiana, another ad paid for by the Republican committee said of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu: "Landrieu votes with Barack Obama 81% of the time. Landrieu endorsed Obama. ... Don't give Washington liberals complete control; don't give them a blank check."
"We are not by any means suggesting that John McCain is going to lose this election," said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the Republican senatorial committee. "What we are saying is, if he does, and if the Democrats win a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, you are looking at radical changes to the direction of our country."
Non-partisan election handicappers see an increasing chance that Democrats could win enough Senate seats to prevent Senate Republicans from blocking legislation. That hasn't happened since Jimmy Carter was president.
Democrats control the Senate by a voting margin of 51 to 49, though their ranks include two independents who side with them. Jennifer Duffy, who watches the Senate for The Cook Political Report, predicts that Democrats will gain between seven and nine seats.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent nearly twice as much in key races as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, by a count of $55.3 million to $29.3 million, reports the non-partisan Campaign Finance Institute.
As Senate Republicans hypothetically write him off, McCain has been quick to return the favor by warning that an Obama victory would mean Democrats running both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. In Colorado on Sunday, McCain said: "The answer to a slowing economy is not higher taxes, but that is exactly what is going to happen when the Democrats have total control of Washington."
"It's really striking, because Republicans as a political tribe have always put a very high premium on party loyalty," said John Hinshaw, a history professor at Lebanon Valley College in Pennsylvania. "It might blow up in their faces, because voters might think, 'Maybe let's give the Democrats a shot at fixing this.'"
Some doom-saying Republicans aren't even on the ballot. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, a McCain rival in the GOP primary, wrote in a fundraising e-mail that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford, "will be a reliable vote for the Democrats. And as we face the very real possibility of an Obama presidency, that's the last thing we need."
One reason candidates are employing that rather stark message is that they were having trouble breaking through the intense public interest in the presidential campaign, Fisher said.
Matt Miller, spokesman for the Democratic senatorial committee, had a different take: "Looks to me like a circular firing squad."
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USA TODAY
October 31, 2008 Friday
FINAL EDITION
Montana sharply split over candidates' energy policies
BYLINE: Karl Puckett
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 6A
LENGTH: 806 words
GREAT FALLS, Mont. -- Wind farm development has many Montanans turning green. Now the question is how many of them will turn blue when they vote for president Tuesday.
Since 2006, 178 giant turbines have sprouted in farm fields at four commercial facilities churning out a combined 270 megawatts of electricity, with even more projects in the planting stages, according to the state Department of Commerce.
Energy policy is front and center for presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama, and Montana, where wind and coal are equally abundant, is paying close attention.
"They are all promising alternative energy," says Peter Wipf, who says he tends to vote Republican but remains undecided.
Wipf lives at the Martinsdale Hutterite Colony, which is 130 miles south of here in the heart of rural Montana. The colony, communally owned, has leased farmland to Texas-based Horizon Wind Energy, Wipf says.
The 60-megawatt first phase calls for erecting 27 to 33 turbines on colony and adjacent state land; there will be a possible later expansion to 200 megawatts, according to Joy Potter, a project manager for Horizon Wind Energy.
Obama's policies supporting renewable energy are striking a chord with many Montanans who are boosting energy produced from wind, solar and biofuels, says Theresa Keaveny, executive director of Montana Conservation Voters in Billings. McCain, she adds, has consistently opposed alternative energy and supports more oil drilling, "which Montanans don't want."
Montana has 120 billion tons of coal reserves, the most in the nation, and each year 41 million tons is shipped by train to coal-fired generating plants around the country, according to the Montana Coal Council. McCain's "all of the above" approach, which includes using coal, oil, nuclear and alternative energy, appeals more to Montanans, says Erik Iverson, the chairman of the Montana Republican Party.
"The bottom line is, who are you going to trust to get that coal out of the ground and create jobs?" Iverson says.
The Big Sky state has voted Republican red since 1992 in races for the White House. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 gave Republican John McCain a 50% to 45% edge over Democrat Barack Obama. But a Montana State University-Billings poll conducted Oct. 16-20 put Obama ahead 44% to 40%; 10% are undecided.
All the polls show Obama doing better here than Democrats have in recent elections. George W. Bush outpolled John Kerry 59% to 39% in 2004 and beat Al Gore 58% to 33% in 2000. A Democrat hasn't taken the state since Bill Clinton won in 1992. Before that, the last Democrat to win was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
"Montana is not a red state when it comes to the Legislature and statewide office," Keaveny says, "so at what point do we quit calling it a red state?"
Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who touted the state's "clean and green" energy agenda and Obama in a speech at the August Democratic National Convention in Denver, is running for re-election and is leading Republican challenger Roy Brown 60 % to 27%, according to the latest Montana State-Billings poll.
Democrat Jon Tester narrowly unseated longtime incumbent Republican Conrad Burns for a U.S. Senate seat in 2006.
Now Obama is trying to shift the state's political winds for president. He's visited five times -- McCain has yet to campaign here. Obama has 19 staffed offices across the state, while McCain shares six field offices with the Montana Republican Party. Bud Clinch, executive director of the Montana Coal Council, says he worries if too much focus is placed on renewable energy, federal funding for carbon-capture technology at greenhouse-gas emitting coal-fired power plants will be neglected.
Sandra Broesder, a commissioner in Pondera County who is allowing a wind developer to prospect on her ranch, is backing McCain. Business-minded Republicans are pushing hard for wind development, which will increase the tax base while generating jobs and attracting new families to sparsely populated rural Montana, she says.
"The support, either for or against wind development, has more to do with personal impacts than any political ideology," she says.
"It's interesting Obama hasn't given up," says Craig Wilson, a political scientist at Montana State University-Billings. With fewer than a million residents, Montana has only three electoral votes. Wilson suspects Obama is attempting to prove to Western states and the nation, "'I'm a credible candidate.'" He's predicting a close finish.
"We can win in places people might not expect," says Caleb Weaver, Obama's Montana communications director. The Montana Republican Party's Iverson says the Obama camp is spending money in Montana to bait McCain to campaign here, which would take resources away from battleground states.
Puckett reports for the Great Falls Tribune in Montana
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
Kansas Congresswoman Isn't Capitalizing on Her (D)
BYLINE: Lyndsey Layton; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A05
LENGTH: 1044 words
DATELINE: LAWRENCE, Kan.
Rep. Nancy Boyda wants voters in her Kansas district to know that she works hard, is moderate and worries about the middle class. What she doesn't advertise is that she's a Democrat.
Even in an election that is shaping up to be stellar for Democrats, when analysts predict the party will claim the White House and significantly expand its majorities in Congress to cement control over Washington, Boyda and more than two dozen other Democrats are trying to play down their ties to the party.
"When someone asks 'Are you a Republican or a Democrat?' I throw my arms around them," said Boyda, a centrist who voted against the $700 billion rescue plan for Wall Street.
Boyda and other Democrats who got elected on an anti-Republican wave two years ago are trying to defend those seats in conservative districts that were easily carried by President Bush in 2004. Dozens more are challenging Republican incumbents or seriously competing for open seats in GOP territory -- a sign that Democrats have made inroads.
"Anywhere that's happening, they're competitive because they're putting distance between themselves and party," said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The word "Democrat" does not appear on Boyda's campaign literature, on her bumper stickers, or on the outsize signs farmers stick in their wheat and cornfields. In gatherings with voters, she scrupulously avoids mentioning party. Boyda frequently talks about the failings of Washington, even though she has spent the past two years working there as a member of Congress and wants voters to send her back.
She stayed home from the Democratic National Convention, saying she preferred time with family and constituents to schmoozing with party leaders. She declined the health insurance available to members of Congress, saying she would rather endure the "nightmare" of private insurance to better understand the struggles her constituents face.
And she is the only freshman Democrat in a tight House race to refuse help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which was prepared to spend more than $1 million on her race, an amount that would have nearly doubled her campaign coffers. Boyda declined to join the Frontline Democrats program, which provides fundraising and strategic help to vulnerable incumbents.
"What I wanted was to be able to make independent decisions about how I ran this campaign," said Boyda, 53, a chemist before entering politics. "What I'm fighting against is Washington's control over me, my message, the way I run."
In what has become one of her stock tales, Boyda likes to describe her first run for office in 2004. She hired Washington political consultants. They imposed their will. She tanked. It was a disaster.
She ran again in 2006, but on her own terms, with her husband as campaign manager. They bought airtime on farm radio and used a $99 software program to produce newspaper inserts about her positions on the military, the economy and other issues -- a low-tech formula she is repeating this election. Boyda surprised both parties by unseating 10-year incumbent Republican Jim Ryun.
Boyda's opponent, State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, is hoping her background as a certified public accountant will appeal to voters in the midst of an economic crisis. Even though Republicans outnumber Democrats in her district 42 percent to 30 percent, she, too, is trying to create distance between herself and her party. "I don't have to tell you this, but Washington, D.C., has failed us," Jenkins said in an April speech. "Let's not mince words. The Democrats are failing us right now. But Republicans have also failed us in recent years."
Jenkins has the difficult task of trying to persuade voters to "fire their member of Congress twice in a row," and she doesn't appear to be making headway, Wasserman said. He recently changed his rating of the race from "tossup" to "leans Democratic."
Still, Boyda is taking no chances. At coffee last week with supporters in the relatively liberal college town of Lawrence, Boyda declined several chances to say anything supportive about Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), who is expected to generate a massive voter turnout that could help Democrats such as Boyda.
"I've stayed away from presidential politics," she demurred when an Obama supporter asked whether she prefers Obama's health-care plan to Republican John McCain's. "I just don't get into it. I stay in my lane."
In the depressed farm town of Atchison, Boyda changed into cowboy boots to walk the route of the annual Halloween parade, lined with weathered men in Caterpillar caps and middle-aged women in sweat shirts. A candidate for county commissioner rode on a tractor. Many said they would be voting Republican at the top of the ticket.
"Not Obama" is how Robert Hosier described his choice for president. Hosier, a single father of two young boys, sat on the broken concrete sidewalk along Commercial Street, across from the Salvation Army. He is 45, but with a graying beard and worried eyes, looks a decade older. He earns $21,000 a year as a security guard and has no health insurance.
He thinks he might vote for Boyda. "She hasn't been that bad," he said, even though the economic crisis has ignited his anger at Congress. "I say throw them all out and start over again and get some common people in there."
While she refused help from the DCCC, Boyda has accepted more than $50,000 in donations from political action committees controlled by Democratic House leaders, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (Md.), Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) and Rep. Charles B. Rangel (N.Y.), the subject of pending ethics investigations.
"If you're sending a check back, you're sending a strong statement," Boyda said, explaining why she kept the money. "I did it because it's crazy out there. I have to raise money."
An independent arm of the DCCC also recently reserved $104,000 worth of television airtime to promote Boyda in the last days of the campaign.
That offered Boyda yet another opportunity to exert her independence. In an open letter she wrote, "If anyone who is running ads in my support is reading this letter, here's my message to you: Thanks, but no thanks. Please stay out of my race."
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
In Tightfisted Turn, Economy Contracts;
Drop in Spending Is Drag on Growth
BYLINE: Neil Irwin and Lori Montgomery; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1117 words
Through recession, countless natural disasters and a major terrorist attack, there has been one constant in the U.S. economy: American consumers have bought more stuff in any given quarter than they did in the previous one.
Not anymore. Personal consumption expenditures fell at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the government said yesterday, the worst decline since 1980. The data show that even before the financial crisis deepened in October, American households were being walloped to a degree that has no recent precedent. Conditions, economists said, are almost certain to get worse before getting better.
"This is a major about-face in consumer spending," said Robert A. Dye, a senior economist with PNC Financial Services Group. "It's no surprise why. We've had a drop in the value of houses and stock portfolios, a very weak labor market and a tightening of credit."
Overall, the nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic growth, declined at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the three months ended Sept. 30, the Commerce Department said. The economy would have shrunk even more had it not been for strong export growth and government spending, as well as a buildup in business inventories -- all factors that are poised to offer less of a boost in the future.
Analysts yesterday had been braced for even worse economic data, and the stock market rose following the announcement. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 190 points for the day, or 2.1 percent, amid some decent earnings reports and some signs of healing in the troubled credit markets.
Many analysts think the country is already in a recession -- although the panel of economists that makes such determinations has not yet ruled -- and that the economy will contract at perhaps a 3 or 4 percent annual rate in the final three months of the year.
The GDP figures gave new impetus to calls for a government stimulus package. Congressional Democrats are now considering crafting a spending proposal of around $100 billion, with the hope that -- if endorsed by President Bush and the president-elect -- the package could be passed next month and signed by the end of the year. Democrats may then consider another package in January, the third in 12 months, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) said.
Publicly, White House officials have not been particularly receptive to the idea of additional spending. But their rhetoric has softened in recent weeks, and political observers said there may be room for compromise, perhaps involving trade deals with Colombia and Panama, which are high priorities for Bush but opposed by many congressional Democrats.
"The White House has some things they want, like Colombia and Panama. So I think the opportunity is there," said John J. Castellani, president of the Business Roundtable, an association of 160 of the nation's largest companies, which joined the call for additional government stimulus spending.
Yesterday's economic data became grist in the presidential campaign. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) attributed the weak growth to Bush's policies, arguing that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would continue them. A top McCain aide said that Obama's tax policies would only exacerbate the slump.
The negative turn in consumer spending -- which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity -- shows how severely the financial crisis has affected Americans' ability to buy the goods they are used to buying. In the 2001 recession and aftermath of the terrorist attacks that year, by contrast, Americans kept spending despite millions of lost jobs.
There's one major difference now. In 2001, consumers could borrow money -- with credit cards, for example, and home equity lines of credit -- to get through bad times without necessarily curbing their overall spending. Now, credit is hard to get, which means many people cannot support standards of living artificially boosted by the now-ended lending boom. Those who suffer short-term setbacks have less ability to ride out the bad times.
The result: The freight train of American consumption has been derailed. Purchases of durable goods fell at a remarkable 14.1 percent annual pace, as Americans pulled back on their demands for automobiles, home appliances and other big-ticket items that often require credit to purchase.
Even spending on nondurable goods -- food, clothing and items expected to last less than three years -- fell 6.4 percent.
Exports proved to be a major bright spot in the report, rising at a 5.9 percent annual pace. But that growth was driven by two trends that seem to be dissipating. First, economies in the rest of the world are deteriorating rapidly, meaning foreigners will be less able to buy American goods in the months ahead. And the value of the dollar has been rising relative to other currencies in recent weeks, making U.S. exports less competitive on price.
"We're entering a global recession, so it's hard to imagine net exports giving much of a positive boost down the road," said Jay Bryson, a global economist at Wachovia.
Government spending, which grew by 5.8 percent, also kept the overall GDP number from being more negative than it was. But the growth there could be misleading. The strongest gains were in defense spending, which is highly volatile quarter-to-quarter. And state and local governments spent more money, a trend that may reverse itself as many face budget crunches in the coming year.
"The underlying data in this report is weaker than the headline number would suggest," Bryson said. "We're going to get a nasty number in the fourth quarter."
Economists testifying yesterday before Congress's Joint Economic Committee said the new GDP numbers reflect a recession that began earlier this year and is likely to last through 2009. New York University economist Nouriel Roubini predicted that it would be the nation's worst downturn since the 1930s.
"When it walks and quacks like a recession duck, it is a recession duck," Roubini told lawmakers, citing depressed economic growth, rising unemployment and grim news from nearly all sectors of the economy.
Both Roubini and Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, urged Congress to act quickly to approve a massive injection of federal funds -- at least $300 billion, Roubini said, and as much as $450 billion, according to Johnson -- to offset the contraction in economic activity.
"This fiscal stimulus should be voted on and spent as soon as possible, as delay will make the economic contraction even more severe," Roubini said in his written testimony. "A stimulus package legislated only in February or March of next year when the new Congress comes back will be too late."
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Referendum on Trickle-Down
BYLINE: E. J. Dionne Jr.
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 750 words
DATELINE: SHIPPENSBURG, Pa.
-- Emily Daywalt decided to go to the first political rally of her life because she wanted to cheer Sarah Palin, who was here a few days ago to inspire the faithful. Daywalt said she likes that Palin "hunts and that she believes in God and that she is a strong, independent woman."
But ask the 19-year-old from South Mountain, Pa., why she is voting against Barack Obama, and she homes right in on John McCain's closing argument. Obama, Daywalt said, "wants to spread the wealth," which she interprets as meaning that he'd "give it to people who don't do anything."
For all of the McCain campaign's relentless use of guilt-by-association techniques, the 2008 campaign is concluding on a remarkably substantive argument. It is a debate about what constitutes social fairness and whether a top-down or a bottom-up approach to economic growth will define the country's future.
Obama is often described as cautious, but he has been bold and unrelenting in his criticism of trickle-down economics and tax cuts concentrated on the wealthy. He used yesterday's negative numbers on economic growth to press his case against theories that conservatives have been touting for decades.
"The decline in our GDP didn't happen by accident," Obama said. "It is a direct result of the Bush administration's trickle-down, Wall Street-first, Main Street-last policies that John McCain has embraced for the last eight years."
Yes, economic populism is thriving right now, and if Obama wins, his election would not simply be a non-ideological verdict against the status quo. It would be a clear repudiation of conservative economic ideas and McCain's claim that a more egalitarian approach to growth constitutes "socialism." McCain's attacks on Obama's thinking have been so forceful and direct that they require this election to be seen as a referendum that will settle a long-running philosophical argument.
Obama has presented McCain with a problem. By endorsing tax cuts for Americans earning less than $200,000 a year -- i.e., the vast majority of taxpayers -- Obama has complicated the typical Republican claim that Democrats always support raising taxes.
Obama is candid in saying that he thinks the wealthy should pay more so that most Americans can pay less. He also thinks government can help vulnerable members of the middle class and the poor secure health care and go to college.
This has complicated McCain's effort to root his argument on taxes in middle-class self-interest, since Obama already has that covered. So McCain has actually had to defend giving large tax benefits to the wealthy and to business, and engage in a wholesale argument against any sort of redistribution.
McCain regularly charges that Obama wants to be the "redistributor in chief." Speaking at the rally here at Shippensburg University, Palin was forced to say this about Obama's support for a variety of tax credits aimed at helping the poor and middle class: "He says that he is for a tax credit, which is when government takes your money in order to give it away to someone else."
That is, of course, a mighty peculiar definition of tax credits. It is also an odd argument from a ticket that itself is committed to a research-and-development tax credit for corporations.
It's true that Obama favors "refundable" tax credits to help low-income workers, including some who may pay no income taxes but do pay many other taxes. McCain has argued that Obama's refundable tax credits amount to "welfare." That, too, is a strange claim, since McCain favors refundable credits as part of his health plan. But the whole idea is to convince voters such as Emily Daywalt that Obama really is just out to help those "who don't do anything."
And that is why Obama's 30-minute advertisement on Wednesday night was targeted directly to voters such as Daywalt, or at least to those like her who are still persuadable. It was Obama's tribute to the country's working people who seek nothing more than decent incomes, health care and a chance to see their children succeed. It was less a political ad than a documentary about the value of work and the responsibilities of family life.
For years, Republicans have argued that the way to help struggling working people is to give more money to the wealthy. Obama is saying that we should cut out the middleman and help working people directly. My hunch is that Obama's argument will prevail, and that conservatives will then work overtime to try to deny the judgment that the people have rendered.
postchat@aol.com
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
The Debates: No Drama but a Dramatic Effect
BYLINE: Robert G. Kaiser; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1365 words
"This cake looks baked," says Charlie Cook of the 2008 election. The normally cautious proprietor of the Cook Political Report, famous for its cogent and careful election analysis, is certain of the outcome: a Democratic landslide. He has lots of company among his peers.
Of course, the Charlie Cooks don't decide elections -- voters do, and they still must be heard from. So let's just say that Barack Obama has had a remarkable October. It's been quite a month -- financial collapses, Sarah Palin and Tina Fey, Joe the Plumber and more political commercials on television than we have ever seen before.
But what if none of that was as important as four 90-minute television programs seen by more Americans than any episode of "American Idol"? Here's a brash assertion: The debates did it.
Okay, okay, this is an oversimplification. Lots of things "did it." We could fill today's Post with the details. Nor is this an obvious conclusion that is widely shared. In fact, our pundits appear to have put the debates behind them, hardly mentioning them in the past fortnight. After all, there were no zingers, no blood on the floor, no egregious goofs -- nothing happened!
Well, not exactly. There is now a lot of evidence from polls and focus groups suggesting that Sen. Obama has significantly improved his standing with a great many Americans since the first debate on Sept. 26, exactly five weeks ago. Americans find Obama more empathetic, stronger, better prepared to be president and just more sympathetic a figure than they did before the debates.
Most important, Obama has moved into the lead. In early September, the race was tied. In the Washington Post-ABC News poll on Sept. 9, soon after the Republican convention, McCain had a two-point lead among likely voters, 49 to 47 percent. By the poll taken just after the second Obama-McCain debate, released Oct. 13, Obama led 53 to 43. In the three weeks since, the race has been utterly stable. Yesterday, the Post-ABC tracking poll had Obama ahead 52 to 44 percent. (The margin of error in all of these polls is plus or minus 3 percent.)
Were the debates responsible for these developments? Probably. They attracted many more Americans than any other event or aspect of the campaign. According to Nielsen, the four debates this fall attracted a total audience of 242 million (of course, many people watched all four). "The debates had a big impact," says Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, the dean of American pollsters. "Obama won all three by huge margins."
Curiously, the McCain and Obama campaigns shared a strong interest in avoiding any drama or surprises in the debates. They negotiated a 31-page "memorandum of understanding" to govern the debates that reeks of anxiety about unexpected developments. The moderators' roles are carefully spelled out, including instructions for Tom Brokaw on how to handle any unruly questioner in the town hall debate held in Nashville on Oct. 7. If a member of the audience who was allowed to ask a question departed from the text of the question Brokaw had previously chosen, "the moderator will cut off the questioner and advise the audience that such non-reviewed questions are not permitted." The candidates agreed to bring "no props, notes, charts, diagrams" into a debate, and to forswear "any challenges for further debates" and promised not to "address each other with proposed pledges." (These quotations come from a copy of the memo provided to The Post.)
The fulfillment of the shared desire for no surprises is just what disappointed the pundits looking for drama and points to be scored. But the sponsors of the debates were not disappointed.
Frank Fahrenkopf, chairman of the Republican National Committee during most of the Reagan era, is the Republican co-chairman of the Commission on Presidential Debates, which brings us these quadrennial spectacles. "We were extremely pleased with the way the debates turned out" this year, Fahrenkopf said this week. "I think they were very important."
Fahrenkopf offers an analysis of the debates that has historical roots:
"I analogize this election to 1980," he says, using a brand of English that suggests too many years spent in Washington. That year, he recalls, the country was in terrible shape and voters ached to make a change, but the candidate offering change was a former movie actor named Ronald Reagan. "The American people wondered, was this guy up to it?" All that uncertain voters wanted was reassurance that Reagan wasn't too risky a choice, Fahrenkopf says.
Reassurance was slow in coming. A week before Election Day, polls showed Reagan and President Jimmy Carter in a virtual dead heat. That was the date of their only televised debate. Before a huge audience, Reagan came off as everyone's lovable uncle. "There you go again!" he scoffed when Carter (quite accurately) described Reagan's past opposition to the Medicare program. At the end of the debate, in a closing statement, Reagan asked: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" The prime interest rate at the time was 14.5 percent; inflation was running at an unprecedented 13 percent. Almost no one in America felt "better off" than a year earlier.
With help from Iranian ayatollahs who refused to release their American hostages before the election, a landslide developed in just a few days. Reagan trounced Carter by nearly 10 percentage points. The debate made the big difference, Fahrenkopf says (and many scholars agree). "The country was reassured."
And this year has been similar, though less sudden. "I think it took Obama three debates for people to see how calm he was, how composed he was, that you couldn't get to this guy," says Fahrenkopf. "He was very well organized. By the time that final debate was over, I think he satisfied the qualms of the American people."
"Then," he adds, "when the economy went into the ditch, McCain had a really tough battle."
Another student of elections who has long been comparing this race to 1980 is Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who, with Republican Neil Newhouse, conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. In an interview last spring, Hart said the country was aching to make a change of party in the White House. Obama, like Reagan, was an agent of change whom the country would embrace if he could reassure voters that he was up to the job, that it wasn't too risky to elect him, Hart thought.
"But Barack Obama faced a special problem," Hart said this week. Obama is "the least credentialed" challenger for the presidency in the modern era. At the same time, expectations for his debate performance, "because of his rhetorical skills, were much higher" than for challengers in the recent past.
Obama rose to the occasion, Hart said. "In the debates, his ability to crystallize issues and present them in a cool, intellectual and reassuring way provided an important contrast to John McCain, because McCain showed such an unsteady and erratic pattern going into the first debate over the economic situation." Hart was referring to McCain's brief "suspension" of his campaign, suggested postponement of the first debate, then about-face. That first debate "was a chance for Barack Obama not only to show his skills, but also to contrast himself with the more mature but less steady John McCain," Hart said.
Looking back just weeks later, the talking heads who passed instant judgments on the presidential debates don't look too wise. From the first ("McCain won the debate," said William Kristol of the Weekly Standard) to the last ("This debate went to John McCain," said Andrea Mitchell of NBC), most of the commentary seemed out of sync with the more scientific evidence.
Those with the best seats for the debates were the moderators. Bob Schieffer of CBS, who moderated the final one, says of Obama, "I think he won on demeanor."
"The vote for a president is different," Schieffer observes. "People vote for the person they feel most comfortable with, especially in a crisis." In Obama, he speculates, "people saw somebody who seemed very composed, very sure of himself, and I think they liked that."
Research editor Alice Crites contributed to this report.
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
In Final Stretch, McCain to Pour Money Into TV Ads
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk; Washington Post Staff Writer
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Sen. John McCain and the Republican National Committee will unleash a barrage of spending on television advertising that will allow him to keep pace with Sen. Barack Obama's ad blitz during the campaign's final days, but the expenditures will impact McCain's get-out-the-vote efforts, according to Republican strategists.
McCain has faced a severe spending imbalance during most of the fall, but the Republican nominee squirreled away enough funds to pay for a raft of television ads in critical battleground states over the next four days, said Evan Tracey, a political analyst who monitors television spending.
The decision to finance a final advertising push is forcing McCain to curtail spending on Election Day ground forces to help usher his supporters to the polls, according to Republican consultants familiar with McCain's strategy.
The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices. This week, a number of veteran GOP operatives who orchestrate door-to-door efforts to get voters to the polls were told they should not expect to receive plane tickets, rental cars or hotel rooms from the campaign.
"The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground," said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. "The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel."
Obama has maintained a substantial financial advantage during the general election campaign, forcing McCain to make tough decisions when locking down a final spending plan about two weeks ago.
Scott Reed, an informal McCain adviser who in 1996 ran then-Sen. Robert J. Dole's presidential bid, said the campaign made the right call by dedicating more money to its media effort. Ads are the most efficient way to persuade undecided voters, and possibly convince some who are only tepidly backing Obama, he said.
"Obama still has not closed the deal," Reed said. "He's still polling under 50 [percent] in most of these battleground states. Don't forget, a lot of people make these decisions late."
Tracey said everything McCain and the RNC are doing is "basically aimed squarely at 'undecideds' and 'lean Obamas.' They've got to bring 'soft Obamas' over their way. TV is the best place to do that."
McCain also is being aided in the campaign's final weekend by several conservative groups, which are airing ads supporting him in key media markets.
Left-leaning groups are also on the air. MoveOn.org announced yesterday it has begun airing ads backing Obama in Arizona.
RNC officials said the party would be picking up the slack for a portion of the Election Day field effort, but it would not be running the entire operation as it did in 2004. The RNC will pay per diems and travel costs for 750 volunteers who fanned out to battleground states yesterday.
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
God, Country and McCain;
At Liberty University, Republican Students Campaign Hard, Fearing a New Era of Liberal Activism if Obama Prevails
BYLINE: Anne Hull; Washington Post Staff Writer
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LENGTH: 2328 words
DATELINE: LYNCHBURG, Va.
Claire Ayendi is dealing with the fading kick of two double shots of espresso. It's the eve of homecoming weekend at Liberty University, and Ayendi, the president of the college Republican club, is trying to rig up a parade float in support of Sen. John McCain. She whips around Lynchburg in her Infiniti SUV, a pink iPod shuffling a mix of indie tunes as she mobilizes her fellow soldiers via cellphone: "If you happen to see a big 'Virginia is McCain Country' sign, could you, perchance, ask to, like, borrow it a few hours?"
Ayendi spots the perfect sign in front of an office building at a busy intersection half a mile from campus and turns into the parking lot. Wearing a faux-alligator headband and pouring on the charm, the pre-law senior talks her way past two secretaries and gains permission from a third to borrow the sign before calling a friend who has a pickup truck. Inside of 12 minutes, the job is done.
To be a college Republican in the face of Obama Nation takes a measure of fortitude. For Ayendi, it also requires tons of prayer and caffeine. McCain's poll numbers are sliding. Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is a bottomless pit of money and energy. Even the hay bales on the rolling hills of once solidly GOP Lynchburg are painted red, white and blue with the name "Obama." And at Liberty University, founded by the Rev. Jerry Falwell in 1971, the first student Democratic club has sprung up.
For eight years, Liberty students have had one of their own in the White House with George W. Bush: a conservative Christian who has spoken about his conversion experience and funded abstinence-only sex education, appointed two antiabortion Supreme Court justices and supported a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. A pipeline of jobs stretched from evangelical colleges such as Liberty to the executive branch.
Now a new dawn threatens, and young activists such as Ayendi are fighting hard to the final hour, in part to prepare for the new phase of activism they foresee in the event of an Obama victory.
"It's the same impulse that Democrats have, the same passion," Ayendi says. "Aside from moral issues -- homosexuality and abortion -- I advocate small government."
Her friend Meghan Allen is more direct. "If Obama wins, I'm gonna want someone to get in there and reverse it ASAP," she says.
Obama has energized the youth vote, but he also has provoked a counter-movement. An astonishing 80 percent of Liberty's 11,400 residential students are registered, and most are Republicans. With polls showing Virginia on the verge of going Democratic, Liberty has canceled classes on Election Day and will provide buses to the polls. The school has also encouraged out-of-state students to switch their registration to Virginia.
Besides taking a full load of classes, Ayendi has been putting in 40-hour weeks on behalf of McCain. She makes phone calls, canvasses, operates a database of student volunteers, uses Facebook as her bully pulpit and will talk to anyone about how she thinks that Obama's promise to redistribute wealth is an affront to the Constitution. The campaign has galvanized her friends and served as an excellent primer on what lies ahead in their adult lives.
Ayendi and Allen playfully dog one of their Liberty friends for wanting to go into the seminary.
"If you want to get anything changed around here, you have to go through the courts," Ayendi says. "You gotta be a lawyer."
Totally, Allen agrees. "My goal is not to make laws Christian but to make government as small as possible so you can be as biblically Christian as you so choose," she says.
Both plan on spring internships abroad and then law school. But an Obama victory would not send these them into the wilderness. To the contrary, the fight would begin anew.
New Generation of Evangelicals
For now, the fight for McCain is still on.
On the cold and bleak Friday of homecoming weekend, Liberty holds a 10 a.m. church service for students in the 10,000-seat basketball arena. Convocation is mandatory three times a week, and this morning's service features a parade of sleepy students lugging laptops and coffee mugs. They wear skinny jeans and hipster high-tops and Ugg boots, but Liberty operates in a parallel universe from other colleges. Alcohol and sex are prohibited. Students caught watching R-rated movies are brought before a court of their peers. Bulletin boards around campus advertise "Pre-Marital Workshops" and the bookstore sells T-shirts that say "I [Heart] Christian Boys." An ad flashes on the screen at morning convocation for a workshop aimed at "Beginning the Process of Lust-Free Living."
Liberty's founder died last year, but a red basketball jersey with the name "Falwell" hangs front and center in the arena. The ghost of the fiery minister is everywhere, most prominently in his 46-year-old son, Jerry Jr., who now serves as the university's chancellor and carries out his father's vision of blending faith and politics. While the younger Falwell has not publicly endorsed a presidential candidate, he reminds students of the importance of their vote. "So much is at stake," he says from the stage. He announces that the Obama campaign has been in touch with Liberty about a possible appearance and he urges courtesy. "If they come, I hope you show them respect and don't shout them down like they do our folks," he says.
McCain was not the first choice for many at Liberty, owing in part to his strained history with the Christian right. While campaigning against Bush in the 2000 primaries, McCain accused the elder Falwell of being an "agent of intolerance" along with Pat Robertson and said both preachers were pulling the GOP toward extremism. But when McCain began gearing up in 2006 for another run, he accepted Falwell's invitation to deliver Liberty's graduation speech.
Claire Ayendi supported former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries but is now fully behind McCain. For the Nigerian who grew up in lefty Silver Spring, her spiritual journey began when she was 12 and went on a church mission trip. After graduating from James Hubert Blake High School in 2005 she decided on Liberty, and as a freshman in this politically conservative environment her ideals took shape. In addition to opposing abortion and same-sex marriage, she is against social welfare programs and overtaxation by the government.
In any other campaign, Ayendi's views would be in synch with those of most Liberty students, but in a year when the nation has its first black presidential nominee -- a candidate with an African father -- Ayendi is taking enormous heat. Black students make up 9 percent of Liberty's population, and many are putting aside their convictions on abortion to vote for Obama. And there is Ayendi sitting behind the "Vote for McCain" table. She has been accused of racial betrayal.
In the fall, she attended an Obama rally to see what the Democrat was all about. "It's amazing and historical," she says of his candidacy. "I would be so excited if he were a conservative. But we're looking at the appointment of two, maybe three Supreme Court justices."
Rumors fly around campus that Ayendi is a plant for the Obama campaign. The pressure comes from all sides, and her face is showing the strain. Her friend Allen gives her daily pep talks and says the campaign is God's way of making her dig deep. "No one works harder for McCain than Claire," Allen says.
The two friends balance each other out: Ayendi is quiet, judicious and guarded, while Allen is a smoking pistol who says things like "God is sovereign, man is fallen, I'm not gonna be perfect, get over it!" As part of a new generation of young evangelicals, Allen rejects the impersonal mega-churches of her youth in favor of mission work and a connection with those she is helping. They both gulp chai tea, eat vegan and listen to Vampire Weekend like other college students, and their career agendas are just as sharply focused as those of their Democratic counterparts. Both are hesitant to criticize Bush but share disappointment that the size of government has swelled under his watch. Neither support Washington's $700 billion bailout of Wall Street and believe that churches, synagogues and mosques -- and not the federal government -- should provide help to the needy.
Ayendi in particular believes that welfare programs promoted by Democrats hold back African Americans. "You go out there in this country and you work hard and you can make it," says Ayendi, the daughter of a diplomat and a nurse. "You can have your white picket fence." At the same time, she often finds herself explaining the complications of race to her white Republican friends.
After convocation, Ayendi and Allen walk to their 11 a.m. government class and unpack their books. "Did anyone watch 'The Office' last night?" a student asks. "It was SO good."
"Has anyone watched the British version?" Allen asks. "It's way more ha-larious and way more out of bounds."
"Hey, Meghan?" a student says.
"Yeah, babe?" Allen says. Just then, Tom Metallo, an associate professor at Liberty's Helms School of Government, calls the class to order. He opens with a prayer: "Father, we thank you for the rich heritage you've given us. As we approach this election season, we pray that you give us the wisdom as we choose the next representatives of our government, some for four years, some for two years. We pray that they serve the general interests and not the special interests."
Metallo says he has a treat for the culturally deprived. A recent "Saturday Night Live" clip featuring Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, as a guest, with cast member Amy Poehler filling in on a caribou-rap number when the Alaska governor demurs.
How you feel, Eskimo?
Ice cold!
All the mavericks in the house put your hands up!
Students laugh; some wave their hands.
When I say Obama
You say Ayers
"I love that part," says Allen.
Metallo takes the class through Britain's government structure, at one point explaining how voting rights were gradually widened, and not always for good. "The expansion of the electoral franchise led to the growth of the welfare state," the professor says. "People are able to vote money out of your pocket and into their own." Before dismissing the class, Metallo invites everyone to his house over homecoming weekend for coffee and dessert.
Ayendi and Allen swing by the dean's office at the Helms school. George E. Buzzy welcomes them and they sit in wingback chairs. Buzzy says he sees Liberty students more engaged in presidential politics than ever before, and he predicts their activism will not end after the election. "Health care, the economy, the appointment of Supreme Court justices, right to life -- these issues don't change on November 4," he says.
Outside the dean's office, Allen paraphrases one her favorite quotes by Tolstoy: "Without knowing my purpose, life is impossible."
Ayendi signs up two students for the final weekend of McCain canvassing in Virginia Beach. "It will be amazing," she promises her new recruits.
'God Is More Important Than This'
Late Friday afternoon, Ayendi makes her final stop at Starbucks for a grande green tea. She takes a table by the window and works her cellphone. While the campaign is a full-time job, she has no desire for a political career. "I'd turn into a shrewd person," she says. "If you don't continually check yourself, it's easy to fall into. I've seen a pro-life candidate change. As they gain momentum, they lose values and answer to money interests."
Not all of Ayendi's friends at Liberty are in political lockstep, made evident by the arrival of Ray Woolson, a biology major who pulls up a chair. Woolson is ripe for ribbing: His Razor scooter is in the back seat of his Volvo, which bears an Obama bumper sticker. And not just any scooter.
"A scooter with a cup holder!" Ayendi teases. "When you want to come over to the real world, you can come over to my side. How can you be a liberal?"
Woolson is calm. "I think being a liberal is the most compassionate thing you can do," he says. "Jesus was a pacifist who chose to spend his time with the poor people. They weren't Big Oil, they were prostitutes."
Ayendi shakes her head in pity. Woolson gives it back. "There are a lot of kids at school who are blindly conservative," he says.
"Americans have gotten too soft and expect too much," Ayendi says.
"Like affordable health care?" Woolson asks. "The conservatives want to have tax cuts for Big Oil CEOs."
They could debate for hours, and they often do, but Woolson has to take off. When he leaves, Ayendi says: "Ray is so random. I'm not. I do as I'm told. I'm really proper. Liberals are very indie, very emo, just very fun. When we go out, we put on button-downs and Sperrys. I think ahead. I'd rather dress like this now, because when I'm in law school this is how I'll be dressing. Liberals are like, 'Live, take a load off!' My friends at home say I have to be perfect 24 hours a day. It's just who I am."
She pauses. "I should recycle more."
Ayendi's cellphone rings. It's one of the leaders of the newly formed Democratic club on campus. Ayendi tries to pry from him how big the Obama float will be in the homecoming parade. "We don't have all the money and the flashy cool things you guys have," she tells him.
Then she makes a proposal. "The Monday night before the election, we are gonna do a day of prayer at the Helms school," she says. "It's not a Republican or a Democrat thing. It's not an Obama or McCain or whatever thing. It's just, 'Let His will be done.' Ultimately what matters is that we are all Americans. I know, Monday night we are all supposed to be phone-banking, but God is more important than this."
Inside, Ayendi is trying to prepare herself for whatever happens. She acknowledges that evangelicals have had a long golden moment in the sun. What now?
"When things don't go your way, you get on your knees and pray to God," she says.
Staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jahi Chikwendiu -- The Washington Post; Claire Ayendi, right, president of Liberty University's Republican club, and Grace Woodson prepare to campaign for John McCain in Lynchburg, Va.
IMAGE; Claire Ayendi, left, and Meghan Allen share a Bible verse before the start of a class at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. The two friends are conservative activists who are campaigning fiercely for Sen. John McCain. Says Allen: "If Obama wins, I'm gonna want someone to get in there and reverse it ASAP."
IMAGE; Photos By Jahi Chikwendiu -- The Washington Post; Ayendi and Grace Woodson, left, gather McCain campaign signs to use on the college Republican club's homecoming float.
IMAGE; Kendra Johnston is among the Liberty University students who are campaigning for McCain.
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The Washington Post
October 31, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
An 'Idiot Wind';
John McCain's latest attempt to link Barack Obama to extremism
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY
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WITH THE presidential campaign clock ticking down, John McCain has suddenly discovered a new boogeyman to link to Barack Obama: a sometimes controversial but widely respected Middle East scholar named Rashid Khalidi. In the past couple of days Mr. McCain and running mate Sarah Palin have likened Mr. Khalidi, the director of a Middle East institute at Columbia University, to neo-Nazis; called him "a PLO spokesman"; and suggested that the Los Angeles Times is hiding something sinister by refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 dinner in honor of Mr. Khalidi at which Mr. Obama spoke. Mr. McCain even threw former Weatherman Bill Ayers into the mix, suggesting that the tape might reveal that Mr. Ayers -- a terrorist-turned-professor who also has been an Obama acquaintance -- was at the dinner.
For the record, Mr. Khalidi is an American born in New York who graduated from Yale a couple of years after George W. Bush. For much of his long academic career, he taught at the University of Chicago, where he and his wife became friends with Barack and Michelle Obama. In the early 1990s he worked as an adviser to the Palestinian delegation at peace talks in Madrid and Washington sponsored by the first Bush administration. We don't agree with a lot of what Mr. Khalidi has had to say about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the years, and Mr. Obama has made clear that he doesn't, either. But to compare the professor to neo-Nazis -- or even to Mr. Ayers -- is a vile smear.
Perhaps unsurprisingly for a member of academia, Mr. Khalidi holds complex views. In an article published this year in the Nation magazine, he scathingly denounced Israeli practices in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and U.S. Middle East policy but also condemned Palestinians for failing to embrace a nonviolent strategy. He said that the two-state solution favored by the Bush administration (and Mr. Obama) was "deeply flawed" but conceded there were also "flaws in the alternatives." Listening to Mr. Khalidi can be challenging -- as Mr. Obama put it in the dinner toast recorded on the 2003 tape and reported by the Times in a detailed account of the event last April, he "offers constant reminders to me of my own blind spots and my own biases."
It's fair to question why Mr. Obama felt as comfortable as he apparently did during his Chicago days in the company of men whose views diverge sharply from what the presidential candidate espouses. Our sense is that Mr. Obama is a man of considerable intellectual curiosity who can hear out a smart, if militant, advocate for the Palestinians without compromising his own position. To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable -- especially in a campaign where Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults. To further argue that the Times, which obtained the tape from a source in exchange for a promise not to publicly release it, is trying to hide something is simply ludicrous, as Mr. McCain surely knows.
Which reminds us: We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that "I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over." That's good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign's increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 31, 2008 Friday 2:00 PM EST
Election 2008: What to Expect at the Polls
BYLINE: Doug Chapin, Dan Seligson and Sean Greene, Director, Editor and Research Director, Electionline.org, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3350 words
HIGHLIGHT: Can you wear an Obama button into the polling place? How far away do you have to be to wave your McCain sign? What ID should you bring? Who should you notify if you see voter suppression or illegal voters? Director Doug Chapin, editor Dan Seligson and research director Sean Greene of the Pew Center for the States's Electionline.org were online Friday, Oct. 31 at 2 p.m. ET to answer all your questions about voting, polling place etiquette and rules in 2008, and other questions you might have about the election.
Can you wear an Obama button into the polling place? How far away do you have to be to wave your McCain sign? What ID should you bring? Who should you notify if you see voter suppression or illegal voters? Director Doug Chapin, editor Dan Seligson and research director Sean Greene of the Pew Center for the States's Electionline.org were online Friday, Oct. 31 at 2 p.m. ET to answer all your questions about voting, polling place etiquette and rules in 2008, and other questions you might have about the election.
Be sure to visit washingtonpost.com's Vote Monitor on Election Day to tell us if you encounter any problems voting, and to keep track of voting-related news.
The transcript follows.
____________________
Seneca, S.C.: Can you wear a political button in the polling place? If not, can you have a sign for your candidate within a certain distance of the polls?
Doug Chapin: Thanks for having us here today. We have tons of information on our Web site, and we're looking forward to your questions.
In response to the first question, state rules vary on political garb at the polls. Some states will ask you to remove anything you're wearing with the candidate's name. They might give you tape or something else to cover the name. Point is, however, you cannot be denied the opportunity to vote based on what you're wearing.
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: Everyone is talking about the lines being epically long. When's the best time to go? First thing in the morning or after work? Also, I heard that as long as you're in the door by 7 p.m., you'll still be allowed to vote. So is it better to show up just before the polls close?
Dan Seligson: Excellent question -- in contrast to previous years, there may not be a "good" time to go. The mid-afternoon tends to be slow -- in most years. But that might not be the case if we have the expected historic turnout on Tuesday. Be patient, and as more than one election official has suggested, bring a book.
_______________________
Washington: Is there any reason I should have more confidence in Florida's ability to run a fair election this time around?
Dan Seligson: Florida has certainly been the "poster child" for election reform since 2000... but no state has done more to try address the problems it's been facing. The amount of change in the Sunshine State has been staggering - in South Florida they'll be using the third separate voting technology in as many presidential elections. That said, the Secretary of State (himself a former county election official) has repeatedly told his colleagues that they must do whatever they can to "not be the next Florida."
_______________________
Loudoun County, Va.: Please be sure to let everyone know that if they have any problems at their polling location -- if they have their drivers license or other valid identification and are turned away for any reason, or if they have any issues with the voting process, ballots or voting machine -- they immediately should call 1-800-OUR-VOTE. Volunteers will assist them. Don't walk away without voting!
Dan Seligson: Agreed. The only vote that is definitely not going to count is the one that doesn't get cast.
_______________________
Takoma Park, Md.: Is there a movement among states to provide early voting in the future? Has the early voting in Virginia been deemed a success? Specifically, is it something Maryland ever would consider?
Sean Greene: No-excuse absentee voting and in-person early voting are on the rise nationally. We have seen estimates that this year, a third of all ballots will be cast before polls open on Tuesday. Maryland voters will consider a measure that could open the door for early voting in the future.
_______________________
Great Falls, Va.: I have heard that during early voting in Virginia, election officials are making phone calls to verify each voter's status when they arrive at the polls, creating very long lines. Is this accurate? Will this happen on Election Day also?
Dan Seligson: That is true. That's part of the "in-person absentee" process in Virginia. That does not happen on Election Day because poll workers have a list of all registered voters for the precinct.
_______________________
Washington: Do I have any recourse if my requested absentee ballot does not arrive in the mail? Also, have there been reported problems with D.C. absentee ballots?
Dan Seligson: Sorry to hear about that. Have you tried calling the election office? If you did not receive a response, have you considered going to the election office to vote early in person? There were problems with misprinted absentee ballots in the District, and I'm not sure if that's the hold up with yours.
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: I voted last night -- it was nice to do it ahead of time because I always worry that I'll somehow miss it on Nov. 4. I wondered two things though: I stood in line for two hours, and worry that if it took that long to vote yesterday, the lines be worse on Nov. 4. Also, the polls were supposed to be open from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., but they still were allowing people to get in the two-hour line right before 7 p.m. How does that work? Thanks for doing this chat.
Sean Greene: The general rule across the country is that you can get in line at any point up to the time that polls close. Everyone in line at poll closing time is eligible to cast a ballot.
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Manassas, Va.: Do absentee votes get counted on the night of the election? If not, then Election Night may not decide. You may have to wait until all absentee votes are counted. Could it be that close?
Doug Chapin: Most jurisdictions start counting absentee ballots on Election Day. This year, however, with so many absentee or vote by mail ballots, that count may not be completed by election night. Contrary to some rumors out there, all absentee ballots are counted whether or not they affect the outcome.
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Montgomery County, Md.: Thanks for doing this chat. Could you remind voters to mark their sample ballots and bring them with them to the polling place to speed their time in the voting booths? I'm sure everyone will have decided who they are voting for in national races -- but have they decided whether they support, for instance, the proposed amendments to the Montgomery County charter? We are expecting record turnout in all three metro-area jurisdictions -- the time to start thinking about who you want to vote for county judge is not when you are in front of the voting machine with 100 people in line behind you. Thanks!
Doug Chapin: Many of you may have heard the commercials by a local clothing store that an educated consumer is our best customer. That same approach applies to Election Day. Just as important is knowing where you vote, verifying your registration status and knowing what you might need to bring with you to the polling place, such as an ID.
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Washington: I saw a report yesterday that a vast number of requested absentee ballots in Colorado have not yet been returned. Is it typical for people to drop the ball with absentee ballots? Is there a statistic on return percentage?
Dan Seligson: We don't have definitive research yet but we're hearing stories from across the country that many voters are holding on to their absentee ballots longer. Los Angeles County, Calif., for example, has seen huge numbers of these ballots dropped off at polling places on Election Day. Maybe people aren't trusting the mail?
As a side note, anyone interested in early voting turnout should check out the United States Election Project hosted by Prof. Michael McDonald of GMU.
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Boston: Could you take a minute and talk us down after watching that West Virginia instructional video in which the touch screen unexpectedly turns Obama votes into votes for minor third-party candidates, or Democratic Ticket votes into Republican votes, while McCain votes stay the same? Even after the technician helpfully "recalibrated" it, it turned Obama votes into Nader votes.
Sean Greene: There is a lot of concern about voting systems. Nearly 60 percent of voters will be casting their ballots on paper this election. I think what's important is that if someone sees a machine acting strangely, they alert a poll worker before finalizing the ballot.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Any difference between absentee voting and day-of voting? I have to go out of town that day at the last minute and plan to vote this afternoon in Montgomery County. Will my vote definitely be counted?
Sean Greene: Your vote will be counted. When voting absentee, make sure to double check your ballot for any stray marks, over-votes, under votes, etc. and that you sign the envelope and do whatever else is asked.
Again, all absentee votes get counted.
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Pittsburgh: I'm worried that because Pennsylvania has no early voting, and only allows absentee balloting under strictly limited situations, plus really nice autumn weather is forecast for Tuesday, so the polls will be mobbed here in the Keystone State. I'm fortunate enough to be able to go vote during the normally lighter mid-day, but I worry that unusually long lines will discourage especially our new voters. Do you know if there'll be more voting machines here than before?
Re: Touch-screen voting machines, I've heard about problems in neighboring West Virginia, where early voting has been going on for a while, that some people who press the screen for one presidential candidate are claiming their vote was recorded for the other. Does this only happen for people who split their tickets (i.e., registered in one party, but voting for the presidential ticket of the other party)? How can a voter determine if this is happening, and if one can, how does one go about rectifying the situation?
Dan Seligson: I'm going to watch the vote in Pittsburgh on Tuesday and I too expect to see some seriously long lines. In a state that does not have early voting or no-excuse absentee voting, that's just par for the course.
I think new voters have been hearing the news and they will expect a wait when they get to the polls. The early voters in a number of states have endured 4-5 hour lines, and we haven't seen a lot of reports of people walking away without voting.
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Washington: I have the luxury of being off from work Tuesday. When would be the best time for voting, considering I live in a semi-large suburb of Washington? I was thinking maybe 11:30 a.m. Thanks.
Doug Chapin: Dan and Sean have already voted. I'm going to vote tomorrow. As we said before, there may be no good time to vote. Just pick a time when it would bother you least to spend a couple of hours in line.
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Washington: Thanks very much for all the helpful information. I wanted to let people know that I called the D.C. Board of Elections to check on the status of my absentee ballot. While it rang many times, someone very helpful picked up and told me it was in the mail. It should be here today. But I was surprised to get a real person, and not all sorts of prompts.
Dan Seligson: We're here to help! Glad to know that they're working it out.
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Fairfax, Va.: My elderly grandmother is going blind and would like to have some assistance in the voting booth to make sure she votes for the correct candidates. Can a family member go into the booth with her, or a poll worker? What are the rules with this?
Doug Chapin: As part of the Help America Vote Act, every polling place now has a voting system accessible for people with disabilities. Your grandmother should be offered the choice of using a machine that uses audio prompts and a keypad to allow her to cast a ballot secretly and independently. However, if she wants assistance, she can choose who she wants to help her.
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Herndon, Va.: It seems like election procedures are about 30 years behind the times. How do we go about getting poll hours extended? 7 p.m. is way too early to close -- many people still are stuck in traffic then. Also, why do I have to be in my home precinct to vote? I work 20 miles from home, and it would be more convenient to vote at a polling place near my office at midday. Shouldn't they be able to provide me with the appropriate ballot by looking up my name and address? How can I work on getting these changes made for the next election?
Sean Greene: Most states are still using a precinct-based system on Election Day; however, more and more are offering convenience voting such as early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. A few - mostly in Colorado - are experimenting with vote centers, which allow a voter to cast a ballot anywhere in their county (or jurisdiction) albeit with a reduced number of polling locations.
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Arlington, Va.: This only applies to Virginia: No one can wear any partisan materials in the polling place -- buttons, hats, stickers, T-shirts and so on. If you do enter with this, you will be asked to take it off or turn shirts inside out. The morning is likely to be busiest period on Election Day. If you can, consider voting in the early afternoon. All voters in line at 7 p.m. will get to vote.
And though I agree that voters should be vigilant, some take this too far. Election officers volunteer and are there to make the process work. We are not the enemy! For instance, in Virginia, you must be registered and vote in your precinct. If you are not in the correct precinct and insist on voting there anyway, we will give you a provisional ballot, but I can guarantee that it will not be counted. So when the chief election officer tells you where you need to go to vote, don't argue -- we are just following the law and giving you the info you need to vote. From a Chief Election Officer in Virginia.
Doug Chapin: That's important for everyone to remember. For all of the discussion of voting machines, election laws and other procedures, elections are basically a human endeavor. Voting may be an act of civic engagement, but Election Day, especially this year, will require civil engagement as well.
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Washington: Do we have people from other countries monitor the fairness of our elections, or at least the presidential ones? I just find it ironic that we go to supervise the elections of others but we can't seem to get them right ourselves.
Doug Chapin: I have had lots of opportunities in the last month to meet and speak with observers and reporters from around the world. The Office for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has a delegation here and I know of several other unofficial delegations here to observe the vote. The foreign press has been acutely interested in the process this year as well.
One thing they have in common -- they marvel at the decentralization of the American electoral system. Or rather the 51 (including the District of Columbia) election systems in this country.
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Washington: I registered in Washington before the deadline, but the election office doesn't have me in the system. They said I could do a "special ballot." What are the chances that my vote actually will be counted? I made a copy of my voter registration form before I mailed it in. Is this kind of thing typical of the D.C. government?
Sean Greene: Good idea making the copy. I can't promise that it will be counted, but you have evidence that you submitted a registration application. They will offer you a provisional ballot (a special ballot) at the polls and you will be able to find out whether the vote counted by going to the District's Web site - www.dcboee.org.
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Denver: Denver is not using the voting centers this election, so all Election Day voters must vote at their precinct location. Early voting, which wraps up today in Denver, was available at different locations around the city. I don't know about the rest of Colorado.
Dan Seligson: Almost 20 counties in Colorado are using vote centers. Denver had a rather difficult roll out of vote centers in 2006 and may have wanted to avoid a repeat this time around.
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Washington: I was approached by someone outside of my voting location who wanted to know whom I was planning on voting for -- specifically asking if I was going to vote for a particular candidate. Is this legal?
Doug Chapin: As long as they respect the boundaries set up by the precinct captain that bars electioneering within a certain distance of a polling place, then yes, it's perfectly legal. There should be a mark outside the door delineating the boundaries of where campaigning can and can't occur.
I get those questions all the time too. Of course, you are under no obligation to answer.
If a campaign volunteer is being too aggressive, don't hesitate to mention it to a poll worker.
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A couple of hours in line?: What a disincentive to voting ... how many folks are gonna say "why bother?" Any reason we couldn't have a three-day voting period, including weekend day?
Dan Seligson: A lot of people are taking a 3-day period for voting - that's early voting. This is a debate you frequently hear regarding a holiday for election day or weekend voting. But recently, the explosion in early voting suggests that people are choosing their own election day.
In all but a handful of states, voting on election day is less of a requirement than a choice.
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Alexandria, Va.: Okay, now I'm confused. I called the City of Alexandria elections department yesterday to inquire about early voting and they told me that Virginia does not have early voting, and that you have to certify you will not be able to vote on Nov. 4. Was I given incorrrect information? What is the truth about early voting in Virginia? Thanks for taking the question.
Sean Greene: Great question. Virginia has in-person absentee voting and you are supposed to have a reason for not being able to go to the polls on Election Day.
In many jurisdictions in the state, anyone who says they will be out of their county for any period of time (even minutes) can vote via an in-person absentee ballot. The absence requirement, in other words, is being liberally construed in an effort to alleviate crowds on Election Day.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: Like "Pittsburgh", I am worried about long lines in Pennsylvania. Since we now require identification checks and provisional ballots, it is expected that both sides will have people challenging voters from the other party. Is there anything that could be done if it becomes clear that one side is doing this deliberately to make the lines longer to discourage voters of the other party to vote?
Dan Seligson: The identification requirement is only for first-time voters. Photo and certain kinds of non-photo IDs are accepted.
I think you're right about provisional ballots. With this many new voters in the system, there is the possibility that some records were incorrectly entered or otherwise slipped through the cracks.
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Washington: Saw in an earlier discussion topic that Florida is working on its kinks. Any predictions of who will take its place in fouled-up elections this time around?
Doug Chapin: We picked 12 states to watch -- you can read that article here.
We hate to predict a meltdown on Election Day. We can, however, say that there are indications that Colorado could be interesting and Ohio, with its pre-election day litigation, might be worth watching.
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Sean Greene: Thank you all for your excellent questions. We'll be tracking developments nationwide on our Web site and will report from the ground in several states.
As Bob Schieffer's grandmother once said, "Go vote. It will make you big and strong."
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Washingtonpost.com
October 31, 2008 Friday 12:12 PM EST
Bush and Cheney's Last Shot
BYLINE: Dan Froomkin, Special to washingtonpost.com, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 4091 words
HIGHLIGHT: Did we really expect President Bush and Vice President Cheney to go quietly?
Did we really expect President Bush and Vice President Cheney to go quietly?
R. Jeffrey Smith writes: "The White House is working to enact a wide array of federal regulations, many of which would weaken government rules aimed at protecting consumers and the environment, before President Bush leaves office in January.
"The new rules would be among the most controversial deregulatory steps of the Bush era and could be difficult for his successor to undo. Some would ease or lift constraints on private industry, including power plants, mines and farms.
"Those and other regulations would help clear obstacles to some commercial ocean-fishing activities, ease controls on emissions of pollutants that contribute to global warming, relax drinking-water standards and lift a key restriction on mountaintop coal mining.
"Once such rules take effect, they typically can be undone only through a laborious new regulatory proceeding, including lengthy periods of public comment, drafting and mandated reanalysis. . . .
"The burst of activity has made this a busy period for lobbyists who fear that industry views will hold less sway after the elections. The doors at the New Executive Office Building have been whirling with corporate officials and advisers pleading for relief or, in many cases, for hastened decision making."
Emma Schwartz reports for ABC News: "Every administration tries to pass last minute rules in hopes of leaving a lasting mark. But experts say the Bush administration is expected to approve a greater number more quickly than previous administrations -- something they said could lead to bad and costly policy.
"'The administration wants to leave a legacy,' said Gary Bass, executive director of OMB Watch, which has been critical of these proposals. 'But across the board it means less protection for the public.' . . .
"It wasn't supposed to be this way. In May, Josh Bolten, then-head of the Office of Management and Budget, which oversees regulatory approval, issued a memo barring new proposals after June. It also required that all new regulations be completed by Nov. 1.
"That hasn't been the case. Many proposed regulations have yet to be finalized and new ones have already come out since the June deadline.
"A spokesperson for OMB said in an email response that the Bolten memo 'wasn't intended to wholesale shut down work on important regulatory matters after November 1st, but to emphasize due diligence.'
"She added: 'Ensuring the integrity of the process is important to the Administration.'"
Among the examples cited by Smith is a proposed rule put forward by the National Marine Fisheries Service that would lift a requirement that environmental impact statements be prepared for certain fisheries-management decisions and would give review authority to regional councils dominated by commercial and recreational fishing interests.
Watchdogs are up in arms. The Pew Environment Group says the rule "threatens to completely undermine application of the law that protects ocean ecosystems." OMB Watch reports: "In addition to the hundreds of thousands of public comments opposing the proposed rule, 80 members of Congress have also expressed their opposition, including a letter joined by 72 members of the House of Representatives. The letter states that the proposed rule fails to meet congressional intent made clear during the reauthorization of the [fisheries act]. Hundreds of scientists and environmental organizations have also signed on to oppose the rule."
Another example is something Siobhan Hughes wrote about in the Wall Street Journal on Monday: "The Bush administration is moving to adopt rules that would loosen pollution controls on power plants, by judging the plants on their hourly rate of emissions rather than their total annual output, people familiar with the matter said. . . .
"As long as a power plant's hourly emissions stay at or below the plant's historical maximum, the plant would be treated as if it were running more cleanly, even if its total annual emissions increased as plant operators stepped up operations."
I've been calling attention to yet more examples of the Bush administration's midnight rule-making for the past several months. For instance, back in May, Juliet Eilperin wrote in The Washington Post: "The Bush administration is on the verge of implementing new air quality rules that will make it easier to build power plants near national parks and wilderness areas."
Carol D. Leonnig wrote in The Washington Post in July: "Political appointees at the Department of Labor are moving with unusual speed to push through in the final months of the Bush administration a rule making it tougher to regulate workers' on-the-job exposure to chemicals and toxins."
Alicia Mundy wrote in the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago: "Bush administration officials, in their last weeks in office, are pushing to rewrite a wide array of federal rules with changes or additions that could block product-safety lawsuits by consumers and states."
And of course there's the push for a last-minute regulatory overhaul that would effectively gut the Endangered Species Act.
Juliet Eilperin wrote in The Washington Post in August that the new rules would "allow federal agencies to decide whether protected species would be imperiled by agency projects, eliminating the independent scientific reviews that have been required for more than three decades."
Dina Cappiello wrote for the Associated Press just 10 days ago that Interior Department officials were rushing so hard to ease the endangered species rules before Bush leaves office that they were "attempting to review 200,000 comments from the public in just 32 hours."
And on Monday, Cappiello reported that -- surprise! -- the administration had concluded "that changes it wants to make to endangered species rules before President Bush leaves office will have no significant environmental consequences."
And yet another one to add to the list. In today's Post, Juliet Eilperin writes: "The federal Bureau of Land Management is reviving plans to sell oil and gas leases in pristine wilderness areas in eastern Utah that have long been protected from development, according to a notice posted this week on the agency's Web site.
"The proposed sale, which includes famous areas in the Nine Mile Canyon region, would take place Dec. 19, a month before President Bush leaves office."
Keep in mind that rule-making is by definition a public process. So what else is going on, beneath the surface? I raised a slew of questions in that vein for NiemanWatchdog.org back in June. Among them:
* Are major contracts being let out that have long-term ramifications? And are any of those related to outsourcing?
* Are appointees in federal agencies trying to cover their tracks? Are documents being properly retained?
* Are Bush political appointees working on last-minute reorganizations within the federal government?
* Are Bush loyalists burrowing into the civil service? Will political appointees engage in a last-minute flurry of hiring and promoting Bush loyalists into key civil service jobs? Will political appointees try to make the jump into the civil service?
Sheldon Alberts writes for the Canwest News Service that Republican presidential candidate John McCain's camp responded furiously to a new ad from the Barack Obama campaign linking McCain to Bush.
"'I would say that the most amazingly bankrupt line of argument that I've ever seen in this campaign has been the constant and heavily financed effort on the part of the Obama campaign to make George Bush John McCain's running mate,' Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said in a conference call with reporters.
"'To me it's outrageous. Everybody who knows John McCain, who has spent any amount of time following his life and times, knows that he has been probably one of the biggest flies in the ointment for the Bush administration on Capitol Hill when it comes to putting his country first.'"
Lauren Vernon writes for The Hill: "John McCain's presidential campaign on Thursday said the Arizona senator would win the race for the White House if Democratic rival Barack Obama keeps seeking to link the GOP nominee to President Bush.
"McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said the attempt of the Illinois senator's campaign to link the current White House occupant to the new Republican standard-bearer is 'a desperate attempt at the end of this campaign by Obama to try and stem the flow of people away from his campaign.'"
As Alberts notes, sparking Davis's ire was this ad- titled Rearview Mirror - that the Obama campaign plans to air heavily in key battleground states this weekend. In the ad, images of Bush keep popping up in the rearview mirrors of a car as road signs outside highlight criticisms of McCain's economic policy.
Via CBS News: "'Wonder where John McCain would take the economy? Look behind you,' an announcer says as the spot opens. Onscreen, a man driving his car is shown looking in his rearview mirror, where he sees Mr. Bush's face.
"'John McCain wants to continue George Bush's economic policies,' the announcer continues . . . 'Look behind you: We can't afford more of the same.'"
And as much as the McCain camp wishes it weren't so, the fact remains that voters generally don't see their candidate as enough of a change from Bush.
Gary Langer writes for ABC News: "For all the focus on the economy as John McCain's greatest problem, there's another right behind it: George W. Bush. . . .
"Fewer than half of likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, 47 percent, think McCain would lead in a new direction; 50 percent instead say he'd mainly continue on Bush's path. McCain has not exceeded 48 percent 'new direction' all year, at a time when dissatisfaction with the country's current course has hit record highs.
"It matters: Among those who think McCain would lead in a new direction, 82 percent support him. But among those who think of him as Bush 2.0, 90 percent prefer Barack Obama instead -- one of the starkest dividing lines between the two candidates.
"Similarly, while McCain overwhelmingly is supported by the relatively few remaining Bush approvers, he loses Bush disapprovers -- 72 percent of likely voters -- by nearly a 3-1 margin, 71-27 percent."
Michael Cooper and Dalia Sussman write in the New York Times about the latest New York Times/CBS News poll: "With just days until Americans choose a new president, the survey found them deeply uneasy about the state of their country. Eight-five percent of respondents said the country was pretty seriously off on the wrong track, near the record high recorded earlier this month. A majority said the United States should have stayed out of Iraq. And President Bush's approval rating remains at 22 percent, tied for the lowest presidential approval rating on record (which was President Harry S, Truman's rating, recorded by the Gallup Poll in 1952).
"Mr. McCain's renewed efforts to cast himself as the candidate of change have apparently faltered. Sixty-four percent of voters polled said Mr. Obama would bring about real change if elected, while only 39 percent said Mr. McCain would."
CBS News reports: "Fifty-three percent expect the GOP nominee to continue Mr. Bush's policies. Forty-one percent do not."
Bush talks a lot these days about how he's looking forward to going home to Texas. But it may not be quite as warm a homecoming as he was hoping for.
Dave Montgomery writes for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram about how Texans are "joining the rest of the nation in registering sharp disapproval of his job performance as the nation's chief executive, according to a newly released statewide poll.
"Only 34 percent of Texans polled in a University of Texas survey approved of Bush's handling of the presidency, with just under 10 percent approving 'strongly.' By contrast, 55 percent disapproved, with 38.7 percent strongly disapproving.
"While the approval ratings are somewhat higher than national polls, the Texas findings reflect a significant downturn in popularity for a native son and former Texas governor who drew 61 percent of the Texas vote in his re-election victory over Democratic Sen. John Kerry four years ago. Throughout much of his two-term presidency, Texas has generally provided Bush with a safety net of robust support while he was losing favor elsewhere."
Sam Youngman writes for The Hill: "While President Bush has conspicuously stayed on the sidelines in the final days until the election, others close to him are venturing out on behalf of embattled Republican candidates.
"First Lady Laura Bush, always a popular draw for Republicans, was in Mississippi on Thursday to stump for Sen. Roger Wicker (R), and on Monday she will do the same for House candidate Brett Guthrie at a rally in Kentucky.
"That the first lady is hitting the road while the president stays in Washington speaks volumes to this election season's dilemma: Republican candidates have to run away from the administration and its policies while still looking for help in races that were considered runaways in once-reliably red states. . . .
"McCain . . . appears with the president only in commercials paid for and approved by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama or the Democratic National Committee (DNC). McCain spends most of his days seeking as much distance between he and the president as he can find."
And Youngman notes that "the first lady isn't the only current occupant of the White House getting in on the act.
"Vice President Dick Cheney, who enjoys approval ratings lower than the president's, is scheduled to attend a Victory rally in Wyoming on Saturday."
Jennifer Loven writes for the Associated Press: "Under fire from Democrats and Republicans alike, the White House on Thursday defended giving billions of bailout dollars to banks that plan to reward shareholders and executives -- or even buy other banks.
"Allowing banks to engage in such normal business activities actually could help loosen lending and revive the sagging economy, said Ed Lazear, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. He said the administration would not impose any conditions on banks beyond those required when Congress created the bailout program, which authorized the government to buy stock in financial institutions. . . .
"Lazear was put before the cameras in the White House briefing room amid a rising chorus of complaints from lawmakers about the latitude that banks will have when they receive bailout money from Washington.
"That bailout was originally sold by the administration as a plan for the government to purchase toxic mortgage-based assets from financial institutions, to get them off their books and inspire the resumption of normal lending. After passage, though, the administration decided the better course would be to devote $250 billion into buying ownership stakes in banks.
"With taxpayers' money flowing into their vaults, banks are going ahead with paying dividends to shareholders, giving bonuses to top executives and acquiring competitors. Lawmakers are asking why banks with the money to do those things need taxpayer-funded help."
Alison Vekshin and Robert Schmidt write for Bloomberg: "The White House and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are seeking to scale back a proposal by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair to guarantee mortgages to help stem foreclosures, according to two congressional aides briefed on the matter.
"The Bush administration is reluctant to sign off on the plan because of its cost, the two people indicated."
Daniel W. Reilly writes for Politico: "A group of Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee sent President Bush a letter Thursday, accusing the administration of not dedicating 'the time, attention or resources needed' to address the foreclosure issue.
"In the letter, the senators called on the Treasury Department to work with the FDIC to allow banks to restructure mortgages to keep more people in their homes.
"'Mr. President, time is short,' the senators wrote. 'Every day we delay, thousands more families face the specter of losing their homes. We cannot afford another delay.'"
Peter Finn and Del Quentin Wilber write in The Washington Post: "A federal judge yesterday questioned the motives of Justice Department lawyers for withdrawing allegations linking a Guantanamo Bay detainee to a 'dirty bomb' plot in the United States shortly before they were required to hand over exculpatory evidence to the defense.
"'That raises serious questions in this court's mind about whether those allegations were ever true,' said U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, who is overseeing a lawsuit brought by Binyam Mohammed, 30, a resident of Britain who is challenging his detention at the U.S. military facility in Cuba. Sullivan warned that 'someone is going to rue the day those allegations were made' if it turns out that the government had evidence that they were unfounded. . . .
"Mohammed said the CIA rendered him to Morocco weeks after he was arrested in Pakistan in April 2002. His attorneys argue that the government's allegations are based on confessions their client made after his detention and torture in Morocco, where, they say, he was slashed with razors.
"'He parroted what his torturers wanted him to say,' said Zachary Katznelson, one of Mohammed's attorneys. 'All they have are Mr. Mohammed's own words, and they were extracted at the tip of a razor blade.'
"The government said Mohammed voluntarily confessed to a number of terrorist crimes, including the dirty-bomb plot, in 2004 at Bagram air base in Afghanistan before his transfer to Guantanamo Bay. The government has never acknowledged that he was in Morocco."
William Glaberson writes in the New York Times: "In 2002, John Ashcroft, then the attorney general, announced that a plot to detonate a radioactive bomb in the United States had been foiled and an American citizen, Jose Padilla, detained. The Pentagon has claimed that Mr. Mohamed assisted Mr. Padilla.
"After Mr. Padilla was held for three and a half years in a naval brig, the Justice Department abandoned its dirty-bomb claims against him. He was convicted of other charges in 2007."
But wait, there's more. As Robert Verkaik writes for the Independent: "Senior CIA officers could be put on trial in Britain after it emerged last night that the [British] Attorney General is to investigate allegations that a British resident held in Guantanamo Bay was brutally tortured, after being arrested and questioned by American forces following the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington in 2001.
"The Home Secretary Jacqui Smith has asked Baroness Scotland to consider bringing criminal proceedings against Americans allegedly responsible for the rendition and abuse of Binyam Mohamed, when he was held in prisons in Morocco and Afghanistan.
"The development follows criticism of US prosecutors by British judges who have seen secret evidence of torture committed against Mr Mohamed, including allegations his torturers used a razor blade to repeatedly cut his penis. The Attorney's investigation is expected to include allegations that MI5 colluded in Mr Mohamed's rendition. Mr Mohamed, 30, an Ethiopian national and British resident, was arrested in Pakistan in 2002, when he was questioned by an MI5 officer.
"On Tuesday, Government lawyers wrote to the judges hearing Mr Mohamed's case against the UK government in the High Court. In the letter they said 'the question of possible criminal wrongdoing to which these proceedings has given rise has been referred by the Home Secretary to the Attorney general for consideration as an independent minister of justice'. Baroness Scotland has been sent secret witness statements given to the court and public interest immunity certificates for the proceedings."
And in news of another case, Peter Finn writes in The Washington Post: "A military judge has refused to reconsider the sentence of Osama bin Laden's former driver, forcing the Bush administration to either release a man it insists is a dangerous terrorist in two months or continue to hold him at Guantanamo Bay as an enemy combatant despite his having served his time after a trial and conviction."
Robert H. Reid writes for the Associated Press: "Iraq wants to eliminate any chance U.S. forces will stay here after 2011 under a proposed security pact and to expand Iraqi legal jurisdiction over U.S. troops until then, a close ally of the prime minister said Thursday.
"Those demands, which were presented to U.S. officials this week, could derail the deal -- delivering a diplomatic blow to Washington in the final weeks of the Bush administration.
"Failure to reach an agreement before year's end could force a suspension of American military operations, and U.S. commanders have been warning Iraqi officials that could endanger security improvements."
Olivier Knox writes for AFP: "The White House on Thursday charged that politics and posturing in Iraq were delaying a controversial US-Iraq security accord but said it remained 'hopeful and confident' about the pact.
"Days before the November 4 US elections, spokeswoman Dana Perino said 'on our side, I don't think that politics is playing a lot of a role in it' because both US presidential hopefuls were generally supportive of the accord.
"'On the Iraqi side, I can't say the same when it comes to internal politics there. And they might even be looking at our domestic politics and trying to game that out, some people, maybe,' she told reporters."
Jonathan S. Landay writes for McClatchy Newspapers: "Two years ago, President Bush hailed Najim al Jabouri as a symbol of success in the battle to curb Iraq's sectarian violence. Today, Jabouri is a symbol of how uncertain that success is.
"Last month, Jabouri quietly left Tal Afar, an ancient city near Iraq's desert border with Syria where he was the police chief and the mayor, collected his wife and four children and flew to safety in the United States. . . .
"His decision underscores the fragility of the relative calm that's settled on Iraq, obscuring the unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions, political infighting and anger at the U.S. occupation, economic paralysis and continuing terrorism."
Jonathan Karl reports for ABC News that Gen. David Petraeus "proposed visiting Syria shortly after taking over as the top U.S. commander for the Middle East.
"The idea was swiftly rejected by Bush administration officials at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon.
"Petraeus, who becomes the commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom) Friday, had hoped to meet in Damascus with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Petraeus proposed the trip, and senior officials objected, before the covert U.S. strike earlier this week on a target inside Syria's border with Iraq."
But as Salon blogger Glenn Greenwald points out, this is not the exclusive Karl claims.
Syria Comment blogger Joshua Landis writes that he "has been writing since August 2008 that Petraeus tried to go to Damascus in the fall of 2007, but was refused permission by the Vice President. It wasn't the president. (That little bit of info is an SC exclusive told to me by a top intelligence officer.)"
Ken Herman blogs for Cox News Service: "President Bush hasn't held a news conference since July 15. And that one ended with this comment from Bush: 'OK, I've enjoyed it. Thank you very much for your time. Appreciate it.'
"Apparently he didn't enjoy it and appreciate all that much. He hasn't had a news conference since then and generally has ignored questions lobbed his way at White House events. . . .
"Can we expect a presidential news conference anytime soon?"
Not likely. From yesterday's press briefing:
Q. "Dana, looking ahead to the election, you said a while back that the President was trying not to give any press conferences while the campaign was going on, to let the candidates sort of have their own spotlight. When will we hear from the President once the election is over?"
Perino: "You'll probably hear from me that night, and then we'll see after that."
Q. "In terms of, you know, a press conference, obviously many of these questions were questions we'd love to direct to him."
Perino: "How long have you covered the White House, this White House? Do we ever forecast when we're going to have press conferences? No. And I really don't think that's going to change after November 4th. So you'll just have to keep dressing up everyday, and then we'll see."
Lee Judge on the real October Surprise, John Sherffius on George the "Contractor", and Larry Wright and Rob Rogers on scary costumes.
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October 31, 2008 Friday 12:00 PM EST
Election 2008 Key States: Minnesota
BYLINE: Eric Black, Political Reporter, MinnPost.com, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3073 words
HIGHLIGHT: MinnPost.com political reporter Eric Black was online Thursday, Oct. 30 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential, U.S. Senate and competitive U.S. House races in Minnesota.
MinnPost.com political reporter Eric Black was online Thursday, Oct. 30 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential, U.S. Senate and competitive U.S. House races in Minnesota.
Also this week: More discussions on key states
The transcript follows.
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Eric Black: Hello, I'm Eric Black of Minnpost.com and long-time political reporter in Minnesota. What can I tell you?
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Harrisburg, Pa.: How popular was Jesse Ventura at the end of his term as governor, and how popular is he now? How do Minnesota viewers regard his service as governor, in retrospect?
Eric Black: Not very popular at the end of his term and not very popular now. A lot of Minnesotans ending feeling embarrassed by his antics and I don't believe he would have been reelected. On substance, his term had several impressive accomplishments. But his obnoxious personality got in the way. Nonetheless, in Minnesota's unusual tripartisan system, and given the high negatives of both Al Franken and Norm Coleman, if Ventura had run for Senate this year, he might have been a very serious contender. In a three-way race, you can have 50 percent-plus negatives and still win.
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New York: Bachman, Franken, Coleman ... you guys are totally out of hand up there in the land of Nice. Is this the wackiest election season you can remember? As a New Yorker, I feel cheated. Maybe we need to bring Spitzer back.
Eric Black: Very wacky, very tacky. It's strange to have a field in which there are no really well-liked candidates. For for strangeness, even Minnesota has produced many contenders. We had, of course, Sen. Wellstone die two weeks before the last election and all the strangeness that followed that. A few cycles back, the Republican nominee for governor withdrew close to the election after allegations of swimming topless with his teenage daughters friends. We'll have to wait for some perspective to decide what's weirdest.
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Washington: With Minnesota unlikely to be a presidential swing states, what sort of help are Franken and the Democratic congressional candidates getting from appearances by Obama, Biden or other major surrogates? Any word about last-minute appearances? When I was in college, the Monday before Election Day in 1980 Ronald Reagan came into New Haven, Conn., to try to push the Republican candidate for the open congressional seat over the top. It worked, switching a Democratic seat to Rrepublican (the Democrat happened to be Joe Lieberman). With Franken as a potential 59th or 60th vote, you'd think this would be more important than the difference between an electoral vote of 364 or 375.
Eric Black: We had Bill Clinton here last night for Franken. Coleman is getting major help from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce which sees his election as crucial to get the Repubs to at least a filibusterable 41 in the Senate. They are mostly focused on the EFCA/Card Check issue. I don't guess Coleman wants help from anyone associated with McCain. There's also a late-breaking story alleging that Coleman received improper income through a wealthy supporter. Too soon to say whether that is influencing the race.
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Native Minnesotan: Has Al Franken resorted to being funny at all yet in the campaign? Being funny got Jesse Ventura elected.
Eric Black: Franken is occasionally very slightly funny of late. But, for obvious reasons, he is being very careful about jokes. I attended one of his house parties a while back and during his remarks, he made an only slightly racy remark, then looked right at me and said "and please don't report that. I've got enough problems."
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Reading, Pa.: Eric, it sounds like you folks have quite a choice with Coleman and Franken. Franken has no experience in government and is no doubt hindered by his past as a satirist, so I'm wondering why the third-party candidate isn't picking up more steam.
Eric Black: This is a great opportunity for a third-party candidate and under Minnesota law, the Independence Party has "major party" status and a bit of infrastructure. But IP nominee Dean Barkley has stagnated in the mid-to-high teens for weeks now and it is probably too late for him to become a more serious contender. He has not run a strong campaign, has no money, only just started airing his first tv ad. He needed to break through during the televised debates and didn't get it done.
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Baltimore: Any suggestion from the McCain camp that they regret not picking Gov. Pawlenty? I assume he could have delivered Minnesota and helped in Wisconsin/Michigan, and also rallied the opposition against Franken. Unrelated -- where is Jesse Ventura these days?
Eric Black: I think Pawlenty would have helped the ticket more and have written that. But no suggestion from Team McCain to that effect. Ventura divides his time between Minnesota and his surfer home in Mexico. One of the biggest reasons he didn't enter the Senate race this year was that doesn't want to give up his surfer life. When he is in Minnesota, he generally keeps a low profile.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. Did Al Franken debate Norm Coleman? What was Mr. Franken's debate personna like? Glib, serious?
Eric Black: Yes, there have been four debates with one more on Sunday. None of them have big game changers. As I mentioned a moment ago, those were the main opportunity for IP nominee Dean Barkley (and he was included in all debates) to break through, so the biggest impact is that he didn't get that done. Franken's debate personna has worked for his special needs. Aggressive but not too obnoxious. Mildly funny but no risky jokes. It becomes an opportunity for him to demonstrate mastrey of policy details and I would say he got that done.
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Bachmann: Is she really that out in left feild? If so, how did she get elected in the first place? Also, what are her chances now that she has exposed herself as a loon?
Eric Black: You mean right field. She is a total and fairly extreme conservative in all areas, fiscal, social and foreign policy. During her days in the state Senate, she was best known for bashing gay marriage. She has a devoted following in the churches. She is not a big political talent and has a tendency to commit big gaffes. I covered the 06 race in which she was first elected to Congress. Won fairly easily. The Dem nominee was a beloved figure but a weak candidate. The district went for Bush by something like 15 points. She was considered a sure thing for reelection this year until her Hardball disaster. I wouldn't count her out this round but public polls show her trailing within the margin.
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New York: As an Indian-American, I always am excited and proud when members of my community get involved in American politics. I know that Ashwin Madia is running for Congress this year. What do the polls indicate about his race? Does he have a chance? Thanks for taking my question.
Eric Black: Madia definitely has a chance. Most public polls show him leading slightly, within the margin. Coming from nowhere, it's pretty amazing that he finds himself in this position in a district that has been Repub for decades. I generally expect that the superior Dem ground game and Obama enthusiasm will help Dems in close races like this one, don't you?
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Crestwood, N.Y.: Is the latest revelation/claim about the money paid to Coleman's wife, and the on-again-off-again lawsuit against Franken having any effect? Who exactly is this guy doling out the money and renting the apartment to Coleman?
Eric Black: Nasser Kazeminy is a super-wealthy Iranian immigrant who has supported Coleman. Coleman portrays the relationship as one of personal friendship. Can't say yet what effect these stories are having. The evidence that this alleged scheme is funneling money into the Coleman family's pockets so far rest entirely on the statement of the guy filing the lawsuit, although it was a sworn statement.
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Bremerton, Wash.: What's Eleanor Mondale up to these days? Has she ever thought of following her father's footsteps?
Eric Black: Eleanor has a radio talk show. She has been fighting cancer, so far, thankfully, successfully. She has no political aspirations of her own. Her brother Ted Mondale is the politician in the next generation. Has been a state Sen and has sought statewide office, so far without success. Vice President Mondale is one of the classiest and most decent guys I've ever met.
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New York: What are the main sources of Franken's high negatives? It just can't be the nasty jokes or the tax thing; after all, Americans never took it out on Reagan for smacking Angie Dickinson in the face in one of his later movies. Do they see Franken as a carpetbagger?
Eric Black: I'm afraid the Reagan analogy doesn't apply very well. Franken's brand of humor, while successful for his show biz career, has several aspects that make the transition to Senate candidate awkward. Extreme foul language, very aggressive tone, straying into very racy topics. And until he got that aspect of his personality under control, he came across to many as obnoxious earlier in the campaign.
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Minneapolis: Eric, good to see you here -- what a pleasant surprise. Do you see any chance for Barkley's new ad to break through the significant noise already on the airwaves? It seems to me that he has squandered a golden opportunity to challenge two candidates who don't inspire much enthusiasm in the electorate. Barkley seems like the third leg of a boring stool. Will the Minnesota electorate surprise us (this Minnesota voter included)?
Eric Black: I'd be very surprised if the new ad changes the race. Barkley has missed his opportunities, which were mostly in the debates. I'm not that taken with the ad myself and, as you suggest, it's hard to break through the clutter now.
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Philadelphia: This helped elect Nixon in 1968, so let me ask: If John McCain goes on "Saturday Night Live" and says "sock it to me," will that help him carry Minnesota?
Eric Black: No. But maybe if he could get on "laugh-in."
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Berks County, Pa.: Eric, doesn't Pawlenty have enough problems of his own, with reports that some bridges weren't maintained properly leading to several deaths? Is this an issue with traction?
Eric Black: Pawlenty seems not to have suffered much political damage from the bridge. He has high approval ratings. He was perceived as doing everything right after the bridge fell (the new bridge is built and open by the way)and the investigations of the cause of the collapse have not pointed to anything he could reasonably have done about it. He remains personally popular but with the Dems surging in every other area, he faces tough sledding on any legislative agenda moving forward. I epxect him to at least explore a presidential run.
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Minneapolis: I see lots of Senate questions. Are there any suprises lurking in House races? Rep. Bachmann effectively appears to have eliminated herself; can you comment on that race, Minnesota's 3rd District and whether Kline is really at risk in the 2nd District?
Eric Black: Democrats Ashwin Madia in the third district and Elwyn Tinklenberg in the sixth both have serious shots at winning, both of which would be Dem pickups. Kline's challenger, Steve Sarvi is a significantly longer shot. If he wins it will means the Dem tsunami crested very high. But if the other two races go Dem, Minnesota will have delegation of 7 Dems and Kline. Heading into 06, we had a 4-4 split. Big change.
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Anonymous: Does Franken's religious beliefs come into play? What are Minnesota's demographics regarding religious belief?
Eric Black: If by religious belief, you mean the fact that he is Jewish, there are these very odd facts. Coleman is also Jewish. Wellstone was Jewish. His predecessor Rudy Boschwitz is Jewish. The Jewish population of Minnesota is roughly one percent.
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Atlanta:"I covered the 2006 race in which she was first elected to Congress. Won fairly easily." The 2007 congressional directory has her winning with 50 percent. Are you misremembering, or was it a three-way race?
Eric Black: Three way race. She beat the Democrat 50-42. The IP candidate got eight. But the IP has endorsed her opponent this time.
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Evanston, Ill.: Who has the better ground game among the Senate aspirants?
Eric Black: I would bet on Franken getting more benefit from ground game mostly because of the ability to coordinate with the Obama turnout machine. Obama's Minn coordinator is Wellstone's political Jeff Blodgett. Grass roots is huge for them. The Kerry turnout operation in '04 was considered the best in the country.
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Former Minnesotan: I haven't lived in Minnesota for 26 years. Does this mean I can come back and run for Senate? I think it's astounding the Democratic-Farmer-Labor didn't have a real native candidate available and chose Franken.
Eric Black: Sure, c'mon back and run. Franken's carpetbagger issue is not so unusual. What's more surprising, especially considering the negative baggage that everyone knew Franken brought into the race, is that he didn't get more serious competition for the DFL nomination. DFLers have been complaining for years that they have a "weak bench." Word is, there's some significant younger talent on the way up.
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Northville, N.Y.: Coleman is extremely fortunate that Iraq has been forgotten as an issue because of the surge, the stand-down by the Sunnis and the financial meltdown, or he would be toast. They would have been playing that embarrassing de-pantsing he got in the Senate at the hands of that British raidcal George Galloway on a continuous loop. As it is now, he's got at least an even chance to win.
Eric Black: I must disagree. The switch to the economy as the number one issue has helped Franken and hurt Coleman as it has helped most Dems and hurt most Repubs.
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New York: Why does someone with such fringe ideas like Bachmann go on a show like "Hardball"? Is national exposure, even on a left-leaning show, too hard to pass up? Sometimes becoming a national figure is not a good thing.
Eric Black: It was a huge blunder. In one of her interviews after she stepped in the poo, Bachmann said she was unfamilar with the show and didn't know what she was getting herself into. Can that be true? Anyway, a better politician could easily have escaped when Mathews asked her whether she was alleging anti-Americanness. Bachmann's been a regular lately on Larry King (where the questions are easier). But she's trying to be more careful now.
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Yonkers, N.Y.: What's the status of the Coleman lawsuit against Franken? This is the one where he objects to being called the fourth most corrupt Senator. Who were one through three? Did Stevens make the cut?
Eric Black: Colemann's campaign announced yesterday they would file the suit. Don't know if they have yet. It is getting drowned out by the suit against Coleman.
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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Eric -- glad to see you hosting this chat. I really have appreciated your excellent writing and insight over the years. Even though it has been six years now, my sense is that a lot of Minnesotans are not really "over" the loss of Wellstone, and there's a feeling that Coleman "stole" his seat and would not have won had it not been for the infamous memorial service that was seen widely as a campaign rally (I was there and didn't think it was that bad, but there you go). What are you thoughts?
Eric Black: What you say is true for some voters. They will never forgive Coleman for replacing Wellstone. Franken may be in this group. He regularly brings up the fact that Coleman once said he was a 99 percent improvement over Wellstone. But voters who feel that way probably wouldn't have voted for Coleman anyway.
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Pennsylvania: How do Minnesotans feel about Sarah Palin's faux Minnesota accent?
Eric Black: Minnesotans believe in absolute freedom of accent as guaranteed by the first amendment.
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Alexandria, Va.: So, is Minnesota the real America? Or would the real America only exist outside the Twin Cities?
Eric Black: My latest information is that alexandria, Virginia is the real america.
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Anonymous: You mention Paul Wellstone, and I recall how his accidental death caused the Senate to fall into an even split. My question is, was there a thorough investigation into that tragic plane crash? What were the findings?
Eric Black: Basically, pilot error. There are still conspiracy theories floating around but I have no basis to credit them. It was a terrible tragedy.
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Maplewood, N.J.: What is it about Minnesota -- the well-educated, solid, sensible state -- that always finds a place for weird (and sensible) third-party politicians? Are the rest of us just missing something? (Not that we need a Jesse Ventura to make New Jersey weird).
Eric Black: Personally, I'd be happy to see the rise of credible third parties. Minnesota's election law is fairly friendly. The IP (the Ventura/Barkley party) has to get five percent in at least one statewide race (it can be for auditor) at least once every four years to maintain its legal status as a major party, which gets them automatic ballot access. Minnesota cities are also trying to experiment with Instant Runoff Voting, which also will advantage third parties.
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Minneapolis: Coleman is a very skilled politician, but many people in Minnesota think he's got a lot more skeletons in his closet besides Kazeminy's suits and his payoff. Is more going to come out before the election, do you think?
Eric Black: We'll see.
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Eric Black: Thanks everyone. I enjoyed it. Back to work for me. You?
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washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: Rules and Expectations for Voting on Election Day (washingtonpost.com, 2 p.m. ET today)
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 31, 2008 Friday 9:48 AM EST
Breaking Ranks
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2361 words
HIGHLIGHT: It must be more than a bit discouraging for Republicans to see some of their medium-size names jumping ship and embracing Barack Obama.
It must be more than a bit discouraging for Republicans to see some of their medium-size names jumping ship and embracing Barack Obama.
It started in the pundit world, with the likes of David Brooks, Kathleen Parker and David Frum ripping Sarah Palin as unqualified, and Christopher Buckley actually taking the leap to endorse Obama. Then we had the Colin Powell bombshell on "Meet the Press."
Now there's been a steady trickle of GOPers -- William Weld, Ken Adelman, Charles Fried, Scott McClellan, Mac Mathias, John Chafee, Susan Eisenhower -- saying they cannot bring themselves to support John McCain and are going with his Democratic rival. Some are moderates, but others are certified Reaganauts. They have seen a quality in Obama that has prompted them to back the man whom their party's nominee is attacking daily as a risky, untested near-socialist who pals around with terrorists. (The right-leaning Economist just backed him as well.)
I take this with several grains of salt. It's not like the rise of the Reagan Democrats; the numbers are, for now, too small. And there may be a bit of bandwagon-jumping here. It's not exactly a profile in courage to embrace the leading candidate a week before Election Day. If Obama was so inspiring, why didn't these folks make their move a couple of months ago, when the race was tied?
But it's not nothing. It indicates that Obama's candidacy, with its talk of post-partisanship and its inherently historic nature, has a certain cross-party appeal. Of course, an Obama administration, if there is one, could bitterly disappoint conservatives. Or he could tack to the center and disappoint his liberal base. That's the thing about winning an election--then you've got to deliver.
The defectors get no respect from Noah Pollak in Commentary:
"It might be more accurate to call the Obamacons something like 'Obamatunists.' It makes life much easier in Washington to have been counted as a supporter of the incumbent administration, especially when a side benefit of having switched sides is to be lavished with media attention and hailed as a great visionary. I doubt more than one or two of these characters would have announced for Obama if his and McCain's polling numbers were reversed. Would Colin Powell have done so? Unthinkable."
Jonah Goldberg says these folks are destined to be disappointed:
"The Obamacons have reached sufficient voice and number to be more than the 'statistical noise' you get every election year. That said, I would still say that while the phenomenon isn't entirely phony, I have a very hard time saying the same thing about the arguments the Obamacons use. I think the idea that there would be much that is recognizably conservative in an Obama presidency is absurd."
Andrew Sullivan hits back at the Pollak posting:
"Oh, please. Some of us anti-Bush conservatives took a stand five years ago and were not exactly hailed a great visionaries by anyone. And many of the criticism we made in 2003 -- fiscal recklessness, massive spending, dreadful war management, legalizing torture -- have subsequently been vindicated even by many now supporting McCain. There are many, good conservative reasons to back Obama this time. . . . Maybe if the partisan right had addressed the conservative critique of Bush-Cheney substantively five years ago, the conservative movement would not now be in a state of near-collapse."
Another conservative who's off the reservation is George Will, who says Tuesday will bring the "probable repudiation of the Republican Party":
"Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain's saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin's never having attended a 'Georgetown cocktail party' is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents 'are in charge of the United States Senate'? . . .
"Palin may be an inveterate simplifier; McCain has a history of reducing controversies to cartoons. A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: 'So, who is the villain? "
So, who's gonna win? Still an open question, says Karl Rove:
"The last national poll that showed Mr. McCain ahead came out Sept. 25 and the 232 polls since then have all shown Mr. Obama leading. Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.
"But the question that matters is the margin. If Mr. McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he's down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible. In truth, however, no one knows for sure what kind of polling deficit is insurmountable or even which poll is correct."
Is McCain -- What is the technical term? " Crazy" -- to think he can win?
"The McCain campaign is somewhere between self-delusion and truth," says Slate's John Dickerson.
"The landscape looks pretty bleak. A flood of public polls show that McCain is down in several important, traditionally Republican states. The news organizations and analysts that have reported and sifted the numbers guess that, at the moment, Obama would garner upward of 310 electoral votes by winning not only all the states John Kerry won but also Ohio, Virginia, and several other states that went for Bush in 2004.
"In McCain's most optimistic scenario, he loses a few Republican states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. He just has to hope that he doesn't lose too many of them. (Losing a biggie like Florida or Ohio would be curtains.) He could make up for a small loss of GOP states with a victory in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire.
"How do McCain aides get around this dire picture without the aid of strong drink? Let's just say that McCain's campaign now relies on hope more than Obama's does. They hope that the Obama organization isn't as impressive as signs suggest it is. They hope that the greater enthusiasm apparent among Democrats turns out to be less than advertised on Election Day. They hope that the public polls that show a big Obama lead are poorly designed, overstating participation by young voters and African-Americans. They hope undecided voters will all break to McCain in the end."
Latest tracks: WP, Obama 52-44; Gallup, 51-44; Fox, 47-44.
And this is becoming a familiar theme, from the New York Times:
"All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.
"And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain's image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain."
The NYT/CBS margin: 51-40, Obama.
More reviews coming in on the infomercial (seen by 33 million folks, by the way). The New Republic's Eve Fairbanks notes, as I did, that O impersonated an MSM person:
"Obama, who's presented himself as so many things this campaign cycle -- activist hero, writer, celebrity -- transformed himself into yet another character: the journalistic chronicler.
"In between the standard-fare bits, Obama channeled a Katie Couric vibe, gently relating other people's stories exactly like a soft-news anchor does. Most man-on-the-street campaign ads let their men on the street speak entirely for themselves; instead, Obama narrated some of the details he'd learned about various worried people he'd met on the trail himself: 'Ten years ago she bought a house outside the city' (Rebecca Johnston) . . . 'Every morning, she's up before the sun' (Juliana Sanchez) . . . and so on. The stories -- and the details of their lives that Obama lingered over -- were small, even mundane, unlike the pathos-filled heroics of the Everyman figures John Edwards or Hillary used to talk about."
But a definite thumbs-down from National Review's Mark Steyn:
"The show itself was slick only in a drearily generic way. The waving wheat and music made it seem like a standard campaign commercial, only longer -- 'It's Morning, Noon And Night In America,' which is a big enough problem thanks to the media's Obama cultists without the candidate himself piling on. As for the King Barack Meets [Insert Name Of Downtrodden Subject Here] stuff, aside from the fact that I don't recognize the hellhole this country apparently is, there's something faintly ridiculous in doing it in the middle of the Phillies winning the World Series . . . And then The Daily Show kibbitzing stepped all over the infomercial even more."
Since the chattering class is chattering about whether David Axelrod will leave Chicago for a big White House job, former Bush/McCain adviser Mark McKinnon counsels that he Just Say No:
"It's almost impossible to resist the temptation and seductive power of taking part in a new administration. But let me offer you the same advice Paul Begala offered me eight years ago: Don't do it. If you do, you will likely regret it. You will sacrifice the life you know for one that will leave you exhausted, frustrated, and potentially penniless (after you pay all your legal bills). And you'll find it maddening and depressing to discover just how difficult it is to make something happen when you're dealing with the federal bureaucracy. Ain't like the campaign world you're used to, where you can wake up with an idea and get it done by the 6:00 p.m. news.
"Most importantly, you will lose the special and unique quality of the relationship you once had with your friend and former client because, once you become part of the White House staff, you ultimately will be treated like staff. It's just part of the hierarchical nature of the White House. Everyone is staff. No one is a pal."
Now there's talk that Rahm Emanuel might be Obama's chief of staff. Though I can't imagine, since he's already been a top White House official, why he'd want to give up his House seat.
Sign of things to come: Sarah Palin calendars.
Amazing: four days out, and the chatter is still about Palin. Roger Simon still can't fathom the choice:
"Who chose to put this 'whack job' on the ticket? Wasn't it John McCain? And wasn't it his first presidential-level decision? And if you are a 72-year-old presidential candidate, wouldn't you expect that your running mate's fitness for high office would come under a little extra scrutiny? And, therefore, wouldn't you make your selection with care? (To say nothing about caring about the future of the nation?) McCain didn't seem to care that much. McCain admitted recently on national TV that he 'didn't know her well at all' before he chose Palin.
"But why not? Why didn't he get to know her better before he made his choice? It's not like he was rushed. McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination in early March. He didn't announce his choice for a running mate until late August. Wasn't that enough time for McCain to get to know Palin? Wasn't that enough time for his crackerjack 'vetters' to investigate Palin's strengths and weaknesses, check through records and published accounts, talk to a few people, and learn that she was not only a diva but a whack job diva? . . .
"Is she really a diva and a whack job? Could be. There are quite a few in politics. (And a few in journalism, too, though in journalism they are called 'columnists.')"
Ba-da-bump.
Is Palin admitting she has 2012 ambitions? Ed Morrissey says an ABC interview has been widely misinterpreted:
" 'ELIZABETH VARGAS: If it doesn't go your way on Tuesday . . . 2012?
'GOV SARAH PALIN: I'm just . . . thinkin' that it's gonna go our way on Tuesday, November 4. I truly believe that the wisdom of . . . of the people will be revealed on that day. As they enter that voting booth, they will understand the stark contrast between the two tickets . . .
'VARGAS: But the point being that you haven't been so bruised by some of the double standard, the sexism on the campaign trail, to say, 'I've had it. I'm going back to Alaska.'
'PALIN: Absolutely not. I think that, if I were to give up and wave a white flag of surrender against some of the political shots that we've taken, that . . . that would . . . bring this whole . . . I'm not doin' this for naught.'
"Eh. They're trying to spin that last bit as though the VP run is just a vehicle but it reads more to me like, 'I won't give my critics the satisfaction of seeing me slink home with my tail between my legs.' It's a statement of defiance, in other words, not ambition."
And here's someone willing to say a nice word about the Alaska governor. Elaine Lafferty, the former editor of Ms., vouches for Palin:
"It's difficult not to froth when one reads, as I did again and again this week, doubts about Sarah Palin's 'intelligence,' coming especially from women such as PBS's Bonnie Erbe, who, as near as I recall, has not herself heretofore been burdened with the Susan Sontag of Journalism moniker. As Fred Barnes -- God help me, I'm agreeing with Fred Barnes -- suggests in the Weekly Standard, these high toned and authoritative dismissals come from people who have never met or spoken with Sarah Palin. Those who know her, love her or hate her, offer no such criticism. They know what I know, and I learned it from spending just a little time traveling on the cramped campaign plane this week: Sarah Palin is very smart. . . .
"Palin is more than a 'quick study'; I'd heard rumors around the campaign of her photographic memory and, frankly, I watched it in action. She sees. She processes. She questions, and only then, she acts. What is often called her 'confidence' is actually a rarity in national politics: I saw a woman who knows exactly who she is."
What a bold stance! From a journalist! And she -- oh wait. Lafferty is now a consultant to the McCain-Palin campaign.
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October 31, 2008 Friday 7:41 AM EST
Breaking Ranks
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2357 words
HIGHLIGHT: It must be more than a bit discouraging for Republicans to see some of their medium-size names jumping ship and embracing Barack Obama.
It must be more than a bit discouraging for Republicans to see some of their medium-size names jumping ship and embracing Barack Obama.
It started in the pundit world, with the likes of David Brooks, Kathleen Parker and David Frum ripping Sarah Palin as unqualified, and Christopher Buckley actually taking the leap to endorse Obama. Then we had the Colin Powell bombshell on "Meet the Press."
Now there's been a steady trickle of GOPers--William Weld, Ken Adelman, Charles Fried, Scott McClellan, Mac Mathias, John Chafee, Susan Eisenhower--saying they cannot bring themselves to support John McCain and are going with his Democratic rival. Some are moderates, but others are certified Reaganauts. They have seen a quality in Obama that has prompted them to back the man who their party's nominee is attacking daily as a risky, untested near-socialist who pals around with terrorists. (The right-leaning Economist just backed him as well.)
I take this with several grains of salt. It's not like the rise of the Reagan Democrats; the numbers are, for now, too small. And there may be a bit of bandwagon-jumping here. It's not exactly a profile in courage to embrace the leading candidate a week before Election Day. If Obama was so inspiring, why didn't these folks make their move a couple of months ago, when the race was tied?
But it's not nothing. It indicates that Obama's candidacy, with its talk of post-partisanship and its inherently historic nature, has a certain cross-party appeal. Of course, an Obama administration, if there is one, could bitterly disappoint conservatives. Or he could tack to the center and disappoint his liberal base. That's the thing about winning an election--then you've got to deliver.
The defectors get no respect from Noah Pollak in Commentary:
"It might be more accurate to call the Obamacons something like 'Obamatunists.' It makes life much easier in Washington to have been counted as a supporter of the incumbent administration, especially when a side benefit of having switched sides is to be lavished with media attention and hailed as a great visionary. I doubt more than one or two of these characters would have announced for Obama if his and McCain's polling numbers were reversed. Would Colin Powell have done so? Unthinkable."
Jonah Goldberg says these folks are destined to be disappointed:
"The Obamacons have reached sufficient voice and number to be more than the 'statistical noise' you get every election year. That said, I would still say that while the phenomenon isn't entirely phony, I have a very hard time saying the same thing about the arguments the Obamacons use. I think the idea that there would be much that is recognizably conservative in an Obama presidency is absurd."
Andrew Sullivan hits back at the Pollak posting:
"Oh, please. Some of us anti-Bush conservatives took a stand five years ago and were not exactly hailed a great visionaries by anyone. And many of the criticism we made in 2003 - fiscal recklessness, massive spending, dreadful war management, legalizing torture - have subsequently been vindicated even by many now supporting McCain. There are many, good conservative reasons to back Obama this time . . . Maybe if the partisan right had addressed the conservative critique of Bush-Cheney substantively five years ago, the conservative movement would not now be in a state of near-collapse."
Another conservative who's off the reservation is George Will, who says Tuesday will bring the "probable repudiation of the Republican Party":
"Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain's saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin's never having attended a 'Georgetown cocktail party' is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents 'are in charge of the United States Senate'? . . .
"Palin may be an inveterate simplifier; McCain has a history of reducing controversies to cartoons. A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: 'So, who is the villain? "
So, who's gonna win? Still an open question, says Karl Rove:
"The last national poll that showed Mr. McCain ahead came out Sept. 25 and the 232 polls since then have all shown Mr. Obama leading. Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.
"But the question that matters is the margin. If Mr. McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he's down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible. In truth, however, no one knows for sure what kind of polling deficit is insurmountable or even which poll is correct."
Is McCain--What is the technical term? " Crazy"--to think he can win?
"The McCain campaign is somewhere between self-delusion and truth," says Slate's John Dickerson.
"The landscape looks pretty bleak. A flood of public polls show that McCain is down in several important, traditionally Republican states. The news organizations and analysts that have reported and sifted the numbers guess that, at the moment, Obama would garner upward of 310 electoral votes by winning not only all the states John Kerry won but also Ohio, Virginia, and several other states that went for Bush in 2004.
"In McCain's most optimistic scenario, he loses a few Republican states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. He just has to hope that he doesn't lose too many of them. (Losing a biggie like Florida or Ohio would be curtains.) He could make up for a small loss of GOP states with a victory in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire.
"How do McCain aides get around this dire picture without the aid of strong drink? Let's just say that McCain's campaign now relies on hope more than Obama's does. They hope that the Obama organization isn't as impressive as signs suggest it is. They hope that the greater enthusiasm apparent among Democrats turns out to be less than advertised on Election Day. They hope that the public polls that show a big Obama lead are poorly designed, overstating participation by young voters and African-Americans. They hope undecided voters will all break to McCain in the end."
Latest tracks: WP, Obama 52-44; Gallup, 51-44; Fox, 47-44.
And this is becoming a familiar theme, from the New York Times:
"All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.
"And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain's image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain."
The NYT/CBS margin: 51-40, Obama.
More reviews coming in on the infomercial (seen by 33 million folks, by the way). The New Republic's Eve Fairbanks notes, as I did, that O impersonated an MSM person:
"Obama, who's presented himself as so many things this campaign cycle -- activist hero, writer, celebrity -- transformed himself into yet another character: the journalistic chronicler.
"In between the standard-fare bits, Obama channeled a Katie Couric vibe, gently relating other people's stories exactly like a soft-news anchor does. Most man-on-the-street campaign ads let their men on the street speak entirely for themselves; instead, Obama narrated some of the details he'd learned about various worried people he'd met on the trail himself: 'Ten years ago she bought a house outside the city' (Rebecca Johnston) . . . 'Every morning, she's up before the sun' (Juliana Sanchez) . . . and so on. The stories -- and the details of their lives that Obama lingered over -- were small, even mundane, unlike the pathos-filled heroics of the Everyman figures John Edwards or Hillary used to talk about."
But a definite thumbs-down from National Review's Mark Steyn:
"The show itself was slick only in a drearily generic way. The waving wheat and music made it seem like a standard campaign commercial, only longer -- 'It's Morning, Noon And Night In America,' which is a big enough problem thanks to the media's Obama cultists without the candidate himself piling on. As for the King Barack Meets [Insert Name Of Downtrodden Subject Here] stuff, aside from the fact that I don't recognize the hellhole this country apparently is, there's something faintly ridiculous in doing it in the middle of the Phillies winning the World Series . . . And then The Daily Show kibbitzing stepped all over the infomercial even more."
Since the chattering class is chattering about whether David Axelrod will leave Chicago for a big White House job, former Bush/McCain adviser Mark McKinnon counsels that he Just Say No:
"It's almost impossible to resist the temptation and seductive power of taking part in a new administration. But let me offer you the same advice Paul Begala offered me eight years ago: Don't do it. If you do, you will likely regret it. You will sacrifice the life you know for one that will leave you exhausted, frustrated, and potentially penniless (after you pay all your legal bills). And you'll find it maddening and depressing to discover just how difficult it is to make something happen when you're dealing with the federal bureaucracy. Ain't like the campaign world you're used to, where you can wake up with an idea and get it done by the 6:00 p.m. news.
"Most importantly, you will lose the special and unique quality of the relationship you once had with your friend and former client because, once you become part of the White House staff, you ultimately will be treated like staff. It's just part of the hierarchical nature of the White House. Everyone is staff. No one is a pal."
Now there's talk that Rahm Emanuel might be Obama's chief of staff. Though I can't imagine, since he's already been a top White House official, why he'd want to give up his House seat.
Sign of things to come: Sarah Palin calendars.
Amazing: four days out, and the chatter is still about Palin. Roger Simon still can't fathom the choice:
"Who chose to put this 'whack job' on the ticket? Wasn't it John McCain? And wasn't it his first presidential-level decision? And if you are a 72-year-old presidential candidate, wouldn't you expect that your running mate's fitness for high office would come under a little extra scrutiny? And, therefore, wouldn't you make your selection with care? (To say nothing about caring about the future of the nation?)McCain didn't seem to care that much. McCain admitted recently on national TV that he 'didn't know her well at all' before he chose Palin.
"But why not? Why didn't he get to know her better before he made his choice? It's not like he was rushed. McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination in early March. He didn't announce his choice for a running mate until late August. Wasn't that enough time for McCain to get to know Palin? Wasn't that enough time for his crackerjack 'vetters' to investigate Palin's strengths and weaknesses, check through records and published accounts, talk to a few people, and learn that she was not only a diva but a whack job diva? . . .
"Is she really a diva and a whack job? Could be. There are quite a few in politics. (And a few in journalism, too, though in journalism they are called 'columnists.')"
Ba-da-bump.
Is Palin admitting she has 2012 ambitions? Ed Morrissey says an ABC interview has been widely misinterpreted:
"ELIZABETH VARGAS: If it doesn't go your way on Tuesday . . . 2012?
GOV SARAH PALIN: I'm just . . . thinkin' that it's gonna go our way on Tuesday, November 4. I truly believe that the wisdom of . . . of the people will be revealed on that day. As they enter that voting booth, they will understand the stark contrast between the two tickets . . .
"VARGAS: But the point being that you haven't been so bruised by some of the double standard, the sexism on the campaign trail, to say, 'I've had it. I'm going back to Alaska.'
"PALIN: Absolutely not. I think that, if I were to give up and wave a white flag of surrender against some of the political shots that we've taken, that . . . that would . . . bring this whole . . . I'm not doin' this for naught.
"Eh. They're trying to spin that last bit as though the VP run is just a vehicle but it reads more to me like, 'I won't give my critics the satisfaction of seeing me slink home with my tail between my legs.' It's a statement of defiance, in other words, not ambition."
And here's someone willing to say a nice word about the Alaska governor. Elaine Lafferty, the former editor of Ms., vouches for Palin:
"It's difficult not to froth when one reads, as I did again and again this week, doubts about Sarah Palin's 'intelligence,' coming especially from women such as PBS's Bonnie Erbe, who, as near as I recall, has not herself heretofore been burdened with the Susan Sontag of Journalism moniker. As Fred Barnes--God help me, I'm agreeing with Fred Barnes--suggests in the Weekly Standard, these high toned and authoritative dismissals come from people who have never met or spoken with Sarah Palin. Those who know her, love her or hate her, offer no such criticism. They know what I know, and I learned it from spending just a little time traveling on the cramped campaign plane this week: Sarah Palin is very smart . . .
"Palin is more than a 'quick study'; I'd heard rumors around the campaign of her photographic memory and, frankly, I watched it in action. She sees. She processes. She questions, and only then, she acts. What is often called her 'confidence' is actually a rarity in national politics: I saw a woman who knows exactly who she is."
What a bold stance! From a journalist! And she--oh wait. Lafferty is now a consultant to the McCain-Palin campaign.
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The New York Times
October 30, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
The Last Week Quiz
BYLINE: By GAIL COLLINS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 39
LENGTH: 765 words
We are so ready to wrap up this presidential race. It's been a great ride, but once you realize you've got the Barack Obama TV special on your to-do list next to recaulking the bathtub, you know the magic's gone. Time to stop talking and start worrying about whether the voting machines have all their working parts.
Sarah Palin almost got me back in the ring when she suddenly attacked federal funding for scientific research that uses fruit flies. Is she a member of a fruit-fly rights group? Opposed to basic research? Or does she want to limit federal funding to labs that do all their testing on puppies?
No, I'm not going there. We need a break. Dare you to answer this end-of-the-endless-election quiz:
Take the interactive version of the quiz <check>
Take the text version of the quiz <check>
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
1. Speaking about the campaign, John McCain said: ''It's not an easy business. It's not ...
A) Mumblety-peg.
B) Beanbag.
C) Tiddledy Winks.
D) Table Skittles.
******
2. Which one of these statements did Barack Obama make while campaigning?
A) ''I've now been in 57 states. I think one left to go.''
B) ''Most of all, I believe in you, Nebraska. Or South Dakota. Or wherever I am.''
C) ''We've come so far since we began this campaign 21 years ago.''
******
3. When Tom Brokaw asked McCain to compare himself to a movie character, McCain's first response was to mention:
A) The entire cast of ''Hoosiers.''
B) Knute Rockne, urging his team to win one for the dead Gipper.
C) The dead Gipper.
D) Leonardo DiCaprio in ''Titanic,'' saving the girl before going down for the third time.
E) Rocky, Rocky, Rocky, Rocky, Rocky.
******
4. Levi Johnston, Bristol Palin's fiance, gave an interview to The Associated Press in which he revealed that, at first, he was nervous about appearing with the Palin family at the Republican convention, but later:
A) Was excited by the chance to meet Mitt Romney.
B) ''... was like, 'Whatever.' ''
C) Prepared by reading up on the party platform.
******
5. Which of the following did Joe Biden NOT say while he was campaigning for vice president?
A) That he hated one of Obama's anti-McCain commercials, then retracted his criticism since he hadn't actually seen it.
B) That Hillary Clinton ''might have been a better pick than me.''
C) That to find out what Americans think, you had to walk ''down Union Street with me in Wilmington and go to Katie's Restaurant,'' an eatery that has been closed for nearly 20 years. And was never on Union Street.
D) That even though he takes the Amtrak home to Delaware every night, he's never once sat in the quiet car.
E) Asked a Missouri state senator to stand up and be recognized, apparently forgetting that the man was wheelchair-bound.
******
6. Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, struggling in the polls, released an ad that appears to have her opponent saying ...:
A) ''Deep in my heart, I know Elizabeth is the better choice.''
B) ''There is no God.''
C) ''We need to concentrate on Wall Street instead of Main Street.''
D) ''The Tar Heels stink.''
******
7. Democrat Tim Mahoney of Florida, who was elected to replace the Congressional-page-obsessed Mark Foley, has now admitted to ''multiple affairs'' and is being investigated for allegedly paying one former lover/staff member $121,000. His campaign slogan when he ran against Foley was:
A) ''Keeping Our Philandering Heterosexual.''
B) ''Restoring America's Values Begins at Home.''
C) ''Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.''
******
8. Which of the following did Representative Charles Rangel, the chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, NOT do during the current campaign season?
A) Announce he was giving up a rent-stabilized apartment that he used as an office while keeping three others.
B) Explain his failure to pay taxes on rental income from a Dominican Republic vacation home by saying he got confused because his business partners kept speaking Spanish.
C) Call out to some New Yorkers who were coughing from pepper spray in the lobby of a hotel in Denver during the Democratic convention: ''I'm outta here! I'll send you cigarettes!''
D) Say of Sarah Palin's wardrobe: ''For $150,000, you'd think she'd get better shoes.''
******
9. At his final appearance before the United Nations, President George W. Bush assured world leaders that his administration was responding to the economic crisis by taking:
A) Bold steps.
B) Baby steps.
C) Another look at invading Iran.
******
ANSWERS: 1-B, 2-A, 3-C, 4-B, 5-D, 6-B, 7-B, 8-D, 9-A
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The New York Times
October 30, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
Now Playing
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 26
LENGTH: 103 words
Obama Commerical: ''His Choice.'' No spoken words, just images, upbeat music and a dig at Gov. Sarah Palin. Three quotations on-screen from Senator John McCain, saying that his strength is not economics and that he ''might have to reply on a vice president that I select'' for help. Then: A winking Ms. Palin. ''His choice?''
McCain Commercial: ''TV Special.'' His dig at Senator Barack Obama's 30-minute infomercial mocks his ''fancy speeches, grand promises and TV special'' and concludes that he ''lacks the experience America needs.'' But note the script's last word: ''The fact is Barack Obama's not ready yet.''
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The New York Times
October 30, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
At Rallies of Faithful, Contrasts in Red and Blue
BYLINE: By MARK LEIBOVICH
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1477 words
DATELINE: SHIPPENSBURG, Pa.
Supporters of Senators Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. often look like Benetton-colored billboards, decked out for their candidates in Obama-Biden hats, T-shirts and buttons. Supporters of Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin like logo merchandise, too, but tend more toward pompoms (yes, pompoms), homemade signs (''Pitbulls 4 Freedom''), flag pins and chest paint.
There is more dancing at Democratic rallies, more shouting out at Republican ones. They chant ''Yes, we can'' (or ''Si, se puede'') at Obama and Biden rallies, ''U.S.A.'' and ''Drill, baby, drill'' at McCain and Palin rallies; the D's bounce to blaring folk-rock and Motown (Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder) and the R's counter with country-pop (including Dolly Parton's ''9 to 5'') and arena rock ( AC/DC).
Democratic rallygoers seem more worried about Ms. Palin than about Mr. McCain. They speak of feeling weary of ''the politics of fear'' and claim Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin are ''irrelevant'' -- unless they win, as one supporter in Charleston, W.Va., said with a smile-cringe.
When you ask Republicans what they think of Mr. Obama, the word ''socialist'' comes up more often than not. They mention that he is a smooth talker, and not in a good way. A lot of them seem to have real problems with Michelle Obama, too, though they cannot pinpoint why. And they do not much care for that Joe Biden, either, or whatever his name is -- many cannot immediately summon it.
What can we learn from a close-in view of Democratic and Republican events at the end of a bitter, exhilarating campaign? It has become a cliche to say that the country is ''divided,'' but the anthropologies displayed at 11 campaign stops in recent days offer glimpses of partisan America.
In these last shopping days before the political Christmas, the distinctions -- and some similarities -- were marked. Mr. Obama's crowds were the biggest and loudest, followed by Ms. Palin's (with Mr. McCain's third, and Mr. Biden's fourth).
In audience volume, age and enthusiasm, Ms. Palin's rallies have more in common with Mr. Obama's than with Mr. McCain's. Fans often crush toward Mr. Obama and Ms. Palin after they are finished speaking, clicking cellphone cameras over their heads.
The rallygoers keep a more respectful distance from the tickets' grayer eminences, Mr. McCain and Mr. Biden, whose crowds appear older, more traditional party-base types (a lot of veterans for Mr. McCain, labor guys for Mr. Biden).
You can tell that Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin are all about being ''mavericks,'' because they remind you about it until they are red in the face; just as you can tell Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden are all about ''change,'' because they do the same until they are blue in the face.
Ms. Palin is the best on the rope lines, working them with the gusto of someone who has been at this campaign racket for only two months, as opposed to two years.
Mr. Biden gets off the best one-liners, saying things like ''John McCain criticizing George Bush is like Butch Cassidy going after the Sundance Kid.'' He invokes his family a lot, too, including his 10-year-old granddaughter, Finnegan. (''Hull-o,'' she says.)
Mr. McCain is most prone to ad-libbing, saying Tuesday in Harrisburg, Pa., that ''no one will delay the World Series with an infomercial when I'm president.'' (Mr. Obama bought half-hour advertisements before a World Series game Wednesday night.)
Mr. Obama has a knack for always coming off morning fresh, even at nighttime events. ''Wow, look at this,'' he has said, marveling at the size of his crowds.
Ms. Palin's events could be Woodstocks, too, though Woodstocks that are attended by hollering home-schoolers, hockey moms and heavy-metal heads.
There are more children on parents' shoulders at Democratic rallies, more large young families together at the Republican events, many wearing matching clothing (often with anti-abortion-themed messages).
There are more school groups at Democratic events, church groups at Republican gatherings; more Democratic protesters outside Republican events than vice versa, although Republicans tend to treat Democratic agitators with a greater contempt than vice versa. (''Communist, socialist, liberal, I hear that all a lot,'' said Matthew Lengao, who was holding up an Obama sign outside a McCain rally in Mesilla, N.M., last weekend, which provoked several raised middle fingers by passing motorists.)
Obama and Biden rallies tend to be more transactional than those of their Republican counterparts. Warm-up speakers spend several minutes urging everyone to call or text-message a certain number in order to get into the ''pipeline,'' so the campaign can contact them to volunteer, or at least vote.
Republican speakers issue obligatory reminders for people to call their friends, make sure they get out and vote. Then they move on to the Pledge of Allegiance and the singing of patriotic songs (''The Star-Spangled Banner,'' ''God Bless America,'' ''America the Beautiful'').
Democrats can be defensive about patriotism, often protesting that they love the United States as much as their counterparts do. Can Republican rallies be heavy with implication to the contrary? You bet.
''Have you ever heard the word 'victory' pass Senator Obama's lips?'' Mr. McCain asked a crowd Tuesday in Hershey, Pa., drawing a chorus of ''Nooo's.'' One of Ms. Palin's biggest applause lines is that she is tired of all the apologizing for the United States of America.
After a group recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance at a Palin event in Salem, N.H., this month, someone in the crowd yelled out, ''Say that, Obama!''
The candidates and audiences also recite the pledge and sing the national anthem at Obama and Biden gatherings, but the crowds tend to be less vigilant about removing caps and placing their hands on their hearts.
''I love you, Barack,'' is probably the most familiar cry at Obama rallies, which the candidate often obliges with a reassuring ''I love you back.''
The wealthy, though, get a little less love at Mr. Obama's rallies. ''How many people here make less than $250,000 a year?'' Mr. Obama says, asking for a show of hands, wanting to recognize all of those whose taxes he says would not be raised in an Obama administration. Hands shoot up, followed by big cheers -- people celebrating nonwealth.
People at McCain and Palin rallies often accuse Democrats of just wanting handouts. ''A lot of people on the other side just want free money,'' said Susan Emrich, at a McCain-Palin rally in Hershey on Tuesday. A real-estate agent, she wears a T-shirt that says, ''I'm voting for Sarah Palin and that White Haired Dude.'' Ms. Emrich would like to attend another rally later that day in nearby Shippensburg, but can't. ''I have to work,'' she explains. ''I'm a Republican.''
Every Republican cheering Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin and every Democrat cheering Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden claim to have dear friends in the other party, even family members. But the other people in the other party can seem to be in a whole other world, especially now.
The candidates say as much. ''When I hear some of those Republican ads, I think, 'What planet are they on?' '' Mr. Biden said at a rally in Charleston, W.Va.
Likewise, it is inconceivable to Bill Howland, a McCain supporter in New Mexico, that Barack Obama could win on Tuesday. ''When I think of the other side, I think of a giant troop of lemmings,'' Mr. Howland said. ''I see their eyes spinning while they're walking over a cliff together.''
Mr. Howland has lucked out: he is a plumber, and won a backstage audience with the candidate in Albuquerque. ''One of the great honors of my life,'' said Mr. Howland, who postponed an ankle operation so he could don his ''Plumbers for McCain'' T-shirt, decorate himself with McCain-Palin buttons (and a Fox News lapel pin) and get his picture snapped with Mr. McCain.
But there is an edge to Mr. Howland (the idea that Mr. Obama might prevail elicits an emphatic ''God forbid'') that many in the audiences at Republican events share these days. They complain that the Republican ticket has been shortchanged by the news media, that pollsters have ignored them and that ''people have been very badly educated about Obama's socialist beliefs,'' as Carol Schorr, a retired teacher from Edgewood, N.M., put it.
There is an edge at Obama rallies, but it is less of frustration, more of fear. Those supporters worry that the election may be stolen from them, that race could skew against an African-American candidate, or that something unspeakable might befall Mr. Obama -- but they will speak it nonetheless, in hushed tones.
Bipartisan consensus can exist, however. A lot of people at rallies for both camps say they are ready for this campaign to be over. But you kind of sense many of them don't mean it.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: (PHOTOGRAPHS BY DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES
ROBYN BECK/A.F.P. -- GETTY IMAGES) (pg.A1)
Crowds for Senator Barack Obama, like this one in Denver, tend to be the largest. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
Audiences for Mr. Obama, like this one in Chester, Pa., often yell out, ''I love you, Barack!'' (PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
''Hockey moms'' announce themselves at McCain-Palin events, like this one in Hershey, Pa. (PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHEN CROWLEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
Young families like this one in Denver, sometimes dressed alike, are common at McCain events. (PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHEN CROWLEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES) (pg.A24)
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October 30, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
The Day
BYLINE: By PATRICK HEALY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 26
LENGTH: 190 words
Florida, Florida, Florida. If the state's 25 electoral votes were the bane of Democrats' existence in 2000, they have emerged as a target of opportunity for Senator Barack Obama in 2008. He ended his day at a rally in Kissimmee with President Bill Clinton -- their first joint event.
Senator John McCain campaigned in Florida, too, and unleashed a new attack on Mr. Obama -- and The Los Angeles Times. Mr. McCain denounced the newspaper's decision not to release a video of Mr. Obama at an event with a former leader of the P.L.O. The Times said it had promised the source of the video that it would not be released.
Mr. Obama spoke to television viewers in a 30-minute commercial and taped ''The Daily Show.'' Mr. McCain hoped to get a word in by appearing on ''Larry King Live.''
Takeaway: It was a pedal-to-the-metal day for both tickets. The McCain-Palin team tried to beat up Mr. Obama with multiple lines of attack. But Mr. Obama revealed deep resources: Millions of dollars for television time, and a popular former president on his arm. (Mr. McCain would prefer that George W. Bush stay in bed for the next five days.)
PATRICK HEALY
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October 30, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
Following the Script: Obama, McCain and 'The West Wing'
BYLINE: By BRIAN STELTER
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; The Arts/Cultural Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1169 words
When Eli Attie, a writer for ''The West Wing,'' prepared to plot some episodes about a young Democratic congressman's unlikely presidential bid, he picked up the phone and called David Axelrod.
Mr. Attie, a former speechwriter for Vice President Al Gore, and Mr. Axelrod, a political consultant, had crossed campaign trails before. ''I just called him and said, 'Tell me about Barack Obama,' '' Mr. Attie said.
Days after Mr. Obama, then an Illinois state senator, delivered an address to the 2004 Democratic National Convention, the two men held several long conversations about his refusal to be defined by his race and his aspirations to bridge the partisan divide. Mr. Axelrod was then working on Mr. Obama's campaign for the United States Senate; he is now Mr. Obama'a chief strategist.
Four years later, the writers of ''The West Wing'' are watching in amazement as the election plays out. The parallels between the final two seasons of the series (it ended its run on NBC in May 2006) and the current political season are unmistakable. Fiction has, once again, foreshadowed reality.
Watching ''The West Wing'' in retrospect -- all seven seasons are available on DVD, and episodes can be seen in syndication -- viewers can see allusions to Mr. Obama in almost every facet of Matthew Santos, the Hispanic Democratic candidate played by Jimmy Smits. Santos is a coalition-building Congressional newcomer who feels frustrated by the polarization of Washington. A telegenic and popular fortysomething with two young children, Santos enters the presidential race and eventually beats established candidates in a long primary campaign.
Wearing a flag pin, Santos announces his candidacy by telling supporters, ''I am here to tell you that hope is real.'' And he adds, ''In a life of trial, in a world of challenges, hope is real.'' Viewers can almost hear the crowd cheering, ''Yes, we can.''
Comparisons between Senator John McCain and the ''West Wing'' Republican candidate, Arnold Vinick, a white-haired Senate stalwart with an antitax message and a reputation for delivering ''straight talk'' to the press, also abound. Vinick, played by Alan Alda, is deemed a threat to Democrats because of his ability to woo moderate voters. And he takes great pride in his refusal to pander to voters, telling an aide: ''People know where I stand. They may not like it, but they know I'll stick with it.''
Even the vice-presidential picks are similar: the Democrat picks a Washington veteran as his vice presidential candidate to add foreign policy expertise to the ticket, while the Republican selects a staunchly conservative governor to shore up the base.
Certainly some of the parallels are coincidental. It is unlikely, for example, that the writers knew Mr. Obama had an affection for Bob Dylan when they made Santos a Dylan fan. But it is the unintentional similarities that make the DVDs of the sixth and seventh seasons, which at the time received mixed reviews, so rewarding to watch now. In both ''The West Wing'' and in real life, for example, the Phillies played in the World Series during the election campaign.
As the primaries unfolded this year, ''I saw the similarities right away,'' said Lawrence O'Donnell, a producer and writer for the series who has appeared on MSNBC as a political analyst. Mr. O'Donnell had used Mr. McCain as one of the templates for the Vinick character in the episodes he wrote, though he said that ''McCain's resemblance to the Vinick character was much stronger in 2000 than in 2008.''
Echoing the criticism Mr. McCain faced during the primaries, a White House aide in ''The West Wing'' contends that Vinick is ''not conservative enough'' for the Republican base. Sometimes the two candidates' situations are almost identical: when the press starts asking where Vinick attends church, he tells his staff that ''I haven't gone to church for a while.'' Asked in July by The New York Times about the frequency of his church attendance, Mr. McCain said, ''Not as often as I should.''
Mr. Alda and Mr. McCain are the same age. When a hard-edged strategist played by Janeane Garofalo joins the Santos campaign, she immediately alludes to Vinick's age. ''He's been in the Senate for like 90 years. He was practically born in a committee room,'' she says.
In the same way that Obama surrogates have subtly knocked Mr. McCain's lack of computer skills, the Garofalo character remarks to the Santos campaign manager, Josh Lyman: ''Why are you always talking about high-tech jobs? Because Vinick uses a manual typewriter.''
Conversely, Santos staffers talk about getting video of the candidate with his ''adorable young children hugging their hale and vital dad.'' The casting of Mr. Smits introduced story lines about the prospect of a minority president. But when an aide suggests a fund-raising drive in a Latino community, Santos snaps: ''I don't want to just be the brown candidate. I want to be the American candidate.'' The Obama campaign has made similar assertions.
Still, ''The West Wing'' -- like Mr. Obama -- does not ignore racial issues entirely. In the seventh season Santos delivers a speech on race at a critical moment for his campaign, and staffers privately worry that voters will lie about their willingness to vote for a minority candidate.
If the show sometimes seems like a political fantasy -- a real debate where politicians are required to answer questions? a candidate rejecting an attack ad? -- it also reflects the tenor of the real-life campaign season.
Santos wins the nomination only after a lengthy fight on the convention floor, an inexact parallel to Obama's extended primary fight with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. Just as the Obama campaign pivoted to the economy this fall, Lyman tells Santos staffers that ''this new economic message may be our ticket,'' and he winds up being right. An economic crisis does not ensue, but back-to-back emergencies on ''The West Wing'' -- a nuclear power plant malfunction and a dispute in Kazakhstan -- bring to mind the election-defining qualities of the actual economic crisis.
''Dramatically, they are exactly the same thing: the unforseeable,'' Mr. O'Donnell said.
As President Bush did during the bailout talks, Jed Bartlet, the Democratic ''West Wing'' president played by Martin Sheen, brings both candidates to the White House for a briefing. Facing the prospect of deploying 150,000 American soldiers to Kazakhstan three weeks before the election, Vinick grumbles, ''I can say goodbye to my tax cut.'' He tells Santos, ''Your education plan's certainly off the table.''
Santos emerges victorious weeks later, but only after a grueling election night. Online, some ''West Wing'' fans are wondering whether the show will wind up forecasting the real-life result as well. In Britain, where the series remains popular in syndication, a recent headline on a blog carried by the newspaper The Telegraph declared: ''Barack Obama will win: It's all in 'The West Wing.' ''
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October 30, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
An Infomercial, Big, Glossy and Almost Unavoidable
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 28
LENGTH: 638 words
Senator Barack Obama broadcast a half-hour prime time infomercial on Wednesday on three of the major broadcast networks -- Fox, NBC and CBS -- as well as Univision, BET, TV One and MSNBC. It was the first program of its kind in 16 years.
THE PROGRAM The program gave a new meaning to the word ''infomercial'' and, for that matter, to all notions of political advertising. Executed with high standards of cinematography, with help from the director of ''An Inconvenient Truth,'' Davis Guggenheim, the infomercial was part slickly produced reality program; part Lifetime biography; and part wonkish policy lecture with music that could have come from ''The West Wing.''
Its imagery was acutely Middle American: suburban lawns, American flags, corn fields and factories. It was packed with swing state and Midwestern governors and senators who spoke in glowing terms of Mr. Obama; a brigadier general, now retired, vouched for his national security credentials.
At the heart of the program were the stories of four everyday families of different backgrounds who told stories of lost health care benefits, the necessities of food rationing and the need to hold more than one job. Mr. Obama told how his mother had to worry about whether the health care provider at her new job would cover her as she battled ovarian cancer. And he retold his background as the grandson of a man who fought in ''Patton's Army'' and a grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line in World War II.
But for much of the program Mr. Obama stood before a presidential desk as he laid out his tax plans, health care plans and his approach to world affairs, saying that, as commander in chief, ''I'll renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression.''
In somewhat jarring fashion, the infomercial ended with Mr. Obama addressing an auditorium audience in Florida, live.
ANALYSIS As in his speech in Berlin and his stadium nomination speech last summer, Mr. Obama's campaign was again practicing its brand of big-event politics with this infomercial: Taking over a huge chunk of the television dial in an effort to make a closing sale with an audience that was likely to be well into the millions. And like the gambits before it, the advertisement held risks just by definition of what it was: A giant financial outlay that made Mr. Obama almost unavoidable to television viewers who are by now weary from all these many months of politicking.
Because Mr. Obama is already running the most intensive and wide-ranging presidential advertising campaign in history, with electronic billboards for his candidacy showing up even in home video games, it raised the obvious question, ''How much is too much?'' With a heavy-handed style of filmmaking devised to pull at heart strings as Mr. Obama ticked through the commercial's hard-luck stories, it risked seeming manipulative.
(Senator John McCain's campaign wasted no time in issuing a statement that read: ''As anyone who has bought anything from an infomercial knows, the sales-job is always better than the product. Buyer beware.'')
But at other times, the infomercial appeared to serve perhaps a safer, workmanlike purpose. With no attacks on Mr. McCain or his running mate, it was largely in keeping with Mr. Obama's strategic imperative this year: Make voters comfortable with the idea of him in the Oval Office while at the same time presenting him as a candidate who can connect with everyday, middle-class voters struggling through the toughest economic times in generations.
It would seem a fool's errand to score the success of the program immediately after it was shown. First impressions this year have at times proved to have short shelf lives, especially those shared in the news media. JIM RUTENBERG
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USA TODAY
October 30, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
McCain works to gain Florida;
Polls have him trailing Obama by single digits
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 509 words
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- John McCain crisscrossed Florida on Wednesday, trying to keep the state in the Republican column as some supporters worried about whether he can catch the better-funded Barack Obama.
"I wish I didn't feel like it was over," said Dawn Poole, a McCain backer who saw him speak at a lumberyard in Miami. "It looks that way, but it's not going to stop me from voting.
"Maybe we'll be surprised," she said.
Greta Rodriguez, a retired administrative assistant from Miami, is "hoping and praying" for McCain to prevail. While Obama is "a little bit ahead in the poll," a "silent majority" could emerge and pull out Florida for McCain, she said. McCain needs to open the "Pandora's Box" of Obama's background to win, said John Piscola, a former New York school principal who lives in Miami Beach.
A series of Florida polls released between Monday and Wednesday showed Obama with anywhere from a 2- to a 7-percentage-point lead.
"We've got to win the state of Florida, my friends, and we're going to win here," McCain said in Miami.
Republican Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez, who traveled with McCain on Wednesday, echoed the Arizona senator's optimism about Florida.
McCain continued to hammer Obama on Wednesday on the economy and national security, saying the Democrat lacked the experience to handle either. The question is whether Obama "has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda, and other grave threats in the world," McCain said in Tampa. "And he has given you no reason to answer in the affirmative."
Retired major general J. Scott Gration, an Obama campaign spokesman, criticized McCain for supporting a Bush foreign policy that has not captured bin Laden.
Both candidates hit prime time TV on Wednesday. Obama ran a 30-minute commercial at 8 p.m. ET, and a McCain interview in Tampa with CNN's Larry King aired at 9 p.m. ET.
At events in Miami and Riviera Beach, McCain warned that Obama and a Democratic Congress would raise taxes, slowing down the economy even more. After a brief meeting with local business owners in Riviera Beach, McCain criticized Obama's half-hour "infomercial."
"As with other infomercials, he's got a few things he wants to sell you," McCain said, blasting Obama's plans for "government-run" health care and redistribution of income. He said Obama broke his pledge to take public financing and voters should remember that the ad "was paid for with broken promises."
Obama, during a speech in North Carolina, said McCain is distorting the details of his economic plan. "If you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime," he said.
In Tampa, McCain conducted a national security roundtable featuring former military officials and supporters such as former Pennsylvania governor and Homeland Security secretary Tom Ridge and Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut independent.
McCain also criticized Obama for being soft on former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. McCain said he would only meet with new ruler Raul Castro "after they empty the political prisons."
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USA TODAY
October 30, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Obama blankets TV with ad;
Times Clinton appearance for 11 p.m. news
BYLINE: Kathy Kiely
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 619 words
KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- Barack Obama pulled out all political and technological stops Wednesday, barnstorming across Republican territory, making a late-night appearance at a rally here with former president Bill Clinton, and blanketing the airwaves.
Obama's first joint campaign appearance with Clinton, the last Democrat to serve in the White House and husband of his former rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., came on the same evening as his campaign aired a 30-minute TV ad.
In what Obama aide Linda Douglass described as "a bit of a high-wire act," the campaign cut from the pre-taped ad with a live feed from a rally Obama held in Sunrise, Fla., a suburb of Orlando, with his running mate, Joe Biden.
Obama's ad ran simultaneously on several broadcast and cable networks at a cost of more than $4 million. It intertwined stories of families facing financial and personal difficulties with Obama's comments on how he plans to help them. It cut to the live rally just as Obama was reaching the climax of his speech.
"If you'll stand with me, and fight by my side, and cast your ballot for me, then I promise you, we will not just win Florida, we will win this election," he said to the roaring crowd during the last part of the ad.
The ad highlighted the enormous financial advantage enjoyed by Obama, who opted out of the public campaign finance system. McCain, who accepted public funding, is limited to $84 million for the general election campaign. In September, Obama raised $153 million and spent $106 million in the first two weeks of October.
Buying a half-hour block of TV time was a chance for Obama to capture the nation's attention and control the news cycle, said Ken Goldstein, head of the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin. "Campaigns usually have very, very few chances to get through unfiltered to voters," he said.
After the ad aired, Tucker Bounds, spokesman for Republican rival John McCain, said: "As anyone who has bought anything from an infomercial knows, the sales-job is always better than the product. Buyer beware."
At his appearance with Bill Clinton, timed for the 11p.m. ET news, Obama took a shot at the current president and the Republican who wants to succeed him.
"We've dug a deep hole, and George Bush wants to hand the shovel to John McCain," Obama said.
Clinton's willingness to share a stage with Obama was also a sign of Obama's success in unifying the party after a bruising primary battle with Clinton's wife.
"I am honored to be here to voice my support," Clinton said.
The two Democrats' appearance came at the same hour that an interview Obama had with Jon Stewart aired on the comedian's Daily Show.
In the interview, Obama joked that his daughters were appalled at his big TV buy. He quoted 10-year-old Malia as saying "'Are you saying that my programs are going to be interrupted?'
"I said, 'No, we didn't buy on Disney,'" Obama said.
Obama spent the day trolling for votes here and in North Carolina, two states where early voting is underway.
The last Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. The last to win Florida was Clinton in 1996.
In Raleigh, Obama poked fun at attacks on his economic policies by McCain: "By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret Communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten."
Contributing: Fredreka Schouten in Washington, D.C., and Martha T. Moore in New York City
On the trail
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain campaigned in Florida on Wednesday. Obama began in North Carolina. McCain spent the night in Ohio.
Florida: 27 electoral votes. President Bush won in 2004 with 52%.
North Carolina: 15 electoral votes. Bush won in 2004 with 56%.
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USA TODAY
October 30, 2008 Thursday
FIRST EDITION
Obama blankets TV with ad;
Times Clinton appearance for 11 p.m. news
BYLINE: Kathy Kiely
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 588 words
SUNRISE, Fla. -- Barack Obama pulled out all the political and technological stops Wednesday, barnstorming across Republican territory and blanketing the airwaves.
As an unusual 30-minute commercial aired on several broadcast and cable networks, the Democratic presidential nominee appeared here at a packed basketball arena with his running mate, Joe Biden. In what Obama aide Linda Douglass described as "a bit of a high-wire act," the campaign cut from the pre-taped ad with a live feed from the rally.
Obama's ad ran simultaneously on several broadcast and cable networks at a cost of more than $3 million. It intertwined the stories of families facing financial and personal difficulties with segments in which the candidate discussed how he plans to help them and other Americans like them overcome their challenges.
"This election is a defining moment," Obama said during the beginning of the ad. "The chance for our leaders to meet the demands of these challenging times and keep faith with our people."
The ad included testimonials about Obama from leading politicians, including two former rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, Biden and Gov. Bill Richardson. The ad didn't mention his current rival, Republican John McCain.
The airing of the ad highlighted the enormous financial advantage enjoyed by Obama, whose fundraising has been so successful that he opted out of the public campaign-finance system. McCain, who accepted public funding, is limited to $84 million for the general election campaign. Obama raised $153 million in September alone, and spent $106 million in the month of September.
After the rally, Obama was to head to his first joint campaign appearance with former president Bill Clinton, timed for the 11 p.m. ET news in central Florida, the state that gave President Bush the White House in 2000 and helped re-elect him in 2004. The pair's rally in Kissimmee, just outside Orlando, was scheduled to start at the same time that an interview Obama had with Jon Stewart aired on the comedian's Daily Show.
In the Stewart interview, Obama joked that his own children were appalled at his big television buy. He quoted his 10-year-old daughter, Malia, as saying "'hold up a second. Are you saying that my programs are going to be interrupted?'
"I said, 'No, we didn't buy on Disney.' So she was relieved," Obama said.
In a sign of his confidence that his Democratic base is secure, Obama spent the day trolling for votes here and in North Carolina, two states where early voting is underway and where Republican presidential candidates usually win. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. The last to win Florida was Clinton, who beat Bob Dole here 48%-42% in 1996.
The former president's willingness to share a stage with Obama also represents a sign of Obama's success in unifying the party after a bruising primary with the Clinton's wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.
In Raleigh, Obama poked fun at attacks on his economic policies by McCain. "By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret Communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten," he told a lunchtime crowd of 28,000 in Raleigh.
Contributing: Fredreka Schouten
On the trail
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain both campaigned in Florida on Wednesday. Obama began in North Carolina. McCain spent the night in Ohio.
Florida: 27 electoral votes. President Bush won in 2004 with 52%.
North Carolina: 15 electoral votes. Bush won in 2004 with 56%.
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The Washington Post
October 30, 2008 Thursday
Met 2 Edition
In Ohio, Wary Eyes On Election Process;
Fears of Fraud and Blocked Votes
BYLINE: Mary Pat Flaherty; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1341 words
DATELINE: CLEVELAND
With Ohio still up for grabs in next week's presidential election, the conversation here has expanded from who will carry the state to how -- the nitty-gritty of registration lists, voting machines, court challenges and whether it all will play out fairly.
Tim Tatarowicz, who runs a small supermarket on Cleveland's east side, said his worry has grown as he has watched the push to add new voters and get them to cast ballots early. When actor Forest Whitaker appeared at a registration drive outside the store, the parking lot was packed.
"It was all to drive up numbers for Obama; I understand that," said Tatarowicz, 44. "But it's pushing absentee ballots that bothers me," he said, because "that makes cheating too easy."
Cheating is not easy, countered Geraldine Tallie, 61, who lives in the housing project across the street. But she does believe that people can make it too hard to vote.
Political parties and elected officials for weeks have been trading sharp accusations and litigation over voting issues here, often for political advantage. But now, among the people whose ballots are at stake, the question of whether their votes will count has become deeply personal.
During the primary, Tallie was one of those caught in long lines at a recreation center, one of 21 East Cleveland precincts ordered by a federal judge to remain open an extra 90 minutes to replenish ballot supplies. But because the order came through late, only 10 polling places reopened -- and state officials say just five additional votes were cast.
That convinced Tallie to vote early this time, not just to avoid the lines but also to make sure her ballot was in. "I wanted my say," she said.
The vitriol over voting increased this week when the Ohio Republican Party released a statewide radio ad that opens with the ticking of a clock and asks, "Could Ohio's election be stolen?" The ad will run up to 20 times a day in some markets and accuses Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner of failing to fight voting fraud.
Brunner has accused the Republicans of positioning themselves to challenge the election results if Barack Obama wins, arguing that a series of GOP-backed lawsuits are meant to suppress votes, help John McCain, and "segregate and pick off ballots if it's a close race."
In recent years, elections in Ohio have not gone smoothly. Four years ago, the weeks before the vote were filled with partisan legal battles, and Election Day was marred by long lines, too few machines in some precincts, and reports of poorly trained poll workers. After the election, amid recriminations, some charged that thousands of frustrated voters had gone home without casting ballots.
Those memories are still fresh, brought to the surface in recent weeks with Republicans and Brunner in court over a range of disputes, including how to resolve mismatched registrations for 200,000 new voters. That case went to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled against the Republicans.
All of the fighting gets attention in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County, which has 1.1 million of Ohio's 8.2 million voters. It also has had the biggest jump in new registrations -- 123,000 since January, an increase of nearly 13 percent.
"Did I register? Three times," joked a supervisor of a demolition crew tearing down an old public housing complex on the east side.
"I signed 73 times, got a cigarette every time I put down my name," said worker Randy Kinney, bringing up one of the much-publicized local voter-registration problems being investigated by the county elections board.
His co-worker Kevin Jackson shook his head. He said he isn't happy that some bad registrations cards were submitted, but his big worry was the lawsuit that challenged new voters whose personal information did not match other state records, sometimes because of slight clerical mistakes.
"I've been thinking I need to go down to the county and make sure it all is good," said Jackson, 40, who changed his registration when he recently moved to neighboring Parma. "I know we're joking about it, but this is serious stuff, and I want to be make sure I get to vote with no trouble."
"Okay, it is serious," Kinney said, relenting, "but here is the fix" -- and he raised his thumb. "Get some of that purple ink they have in Baghdad" to mark who voted.
"Please do not start up with that ink again," Jackson begged.
Kinney, 46, is a McCain supporter who lives about 40 miles southwest of Cleveland and has a disdain for what he sees as the loose ways of city politics. "They want change up here, and I'd rather go backwards."
Jackson is an Obama backer, and "loose" is not the word he uses. "I don't want voter fraud, but I think it seems to be going the other way, where people may be kept off the voter lists when they should have been kept on."
Both men said they will vote, and both said they believe their votes will count -- a triumph of faith over skepticism that was not uncommon among nearly three dozen voters interviewed last week in Ohio's most populous county.
Across town from the demolition site, Patty Ruccella, 44, whipped around her shoulder bag and pointed to a small pink "I [Heart] Sarah Palin" button to prove her interest in the election.
"People around me are talking about whether bad registrations got through by people hired to collect them, and it looks like some did," said Ruccella, who lives on Cleveland's west side. But she believes that any tainted names are being weeded out. "I have to have faith the system works."
This election cycle, Brunner has required counties to have a plan to distribute voting machines more equitably across neighborhoods and to have extra ballots on hand. But those improvements have not eliminated court disputes.
Lawsuits over election issues have become increasingly common, said Richard L. Hasen, an election law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, adding that "Ohio is one of the worst . . . with more partisan wars."
Some lawsuits seek a concrete result -- Hasen cited Democratic efforts to knock Ralph Nader off the ballot in 2004 -- but the recent Ohio litigation, he said, along with "the talk about voter fraud and mismatching, is more for political consumption."
Daniel P. Tokaji, a law professor and associate director of Ohio State University's election law center, said Ohio voters "do tend to focus on election mechanics more than [voters] elsewhere." It has reached such a pitch, he said, that "you would have to have been under a rock" not to know about it.
In 2004, the bickering centered on then-Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, a Republican who co-chaired the Bush campaign in Ohio. He decided that votes cast in the wrong precinct would not count, and he required a certain stock of paper for registration applications; both rules were viewed as disqualifying many urban voters. He relented on the paper stock, but not in time to avoid an outcry.
This year, it is the Democratic Brunner being criticized.
Republicans here and elsewhere around the country have also cited problems with fake registrations collected by the community-organizing group ACORN, including 80 cards signed by a 19-year-old in exchange for cigarettes. The man was already a legally registered voter but has never voted in Cleveland, according to elections board spokesman Mike West.
Kimberly Balas, 48, a yoga instructor, said she and her friends have talked about bogus voter registrations, but "I'm not worried it would become voter fraud, because how would that work? You would need someone to show up and commit a crime by posing as someone or lying about being eligible."
Balas, a registered Republican who "may not vote that way," said she does have concerns about mail-in ballots. "I would want to know those are accurate -- that the right ones count and no wrong ones get through."
Thomasine Clark, 42, a longtime voter, is hoping that all the attention on registration problems does not discourage new voters from showing up.
"That worries me," she said. "I just don't understand why it's always we Democrats made out to be doing something dishonest."
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The Washington Post
October 30, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
Spanish Political Ads' Multiple Translations;
Outreach Can Send a Mixed Message
BYLINE: David Montgomery; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C08
LENGTH: 997 words
How fitting that the most Latinized presidential campaign season in history enters its final week with the Democratic candidate looking deep into our eyes and carefully pronouncing 65 words in Spanish.
"Compartimos un sueño. . . . Este es el sueño Americano."
Just two questions about Barack Obama's new television ad: What is he saying, and to whom is he saying it?
The translation is easy enough: We share a dream. . . . This is the American dream.
But what is he saying, and who gets it? Also, what was the point of buying 30 minutes on Univision last night to run a translated version of his "American Stories" infomercial that simultaneously aired on several English-language networks?
The same can be asked of Republican candidate John McCain, who has aired several commercials with his spoken English translated into Spanish.
Is this just a little bit of linguistic showing off? Most Latino registered voters don't need to be addressed in Spanish. Those born in the United States tend to speak English fluently, and those naturalized as citizens had to pass an English test. The Pew Hispanic Center reports that 84 percent of Latino voters speak English very well or pretty well.
Also: Nearly a quarter of Latino registered voters speak little or no Spanish at all. Won't Obama's and McCain's messages in Spanish be lost on them?
Maybe not. The politics of language and the language of politics are full of bank shots, meta-messages. Sometimes the language is more meaningful than the words. The language is the music, never mind the lyrics.
"It allows that one-on-one cultural touch between the Latino community and a presidential candidate who simply cannot go shake everybody's hand," says Lorena Chambers, a Latina Democratic political consultant with Chambers Lopez & Gaitán.
"When you do something in Spanish, you're trying to communicate a bigger message than the message you're ostensibly sending," says Antonio Tijerino, president of the Hispanic Heritage Foundation. "It resonates. The bigger message is, 'We care about Latinos.' "
But a candidate has to be careful. Latinos, like anybody else, don't like being talked down to. Fluent Hispanic English speakers are proud of their language mastery. They're galled by the charge hurled by some in the immigration debate that Latinos can't or won't learn English.
"They don't like to have people assume they speak Spanish, not English," says Brent Wilkes, executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens.
But making that assumption is a social misstep between individuals -- like goofily breaking into Spanish every time you meet a Latino. That may not be a concern in mass advertising, Wilkes says. "The ad is addressed to everybody. . . . Why watch Univision if you don't want to see ads in Spanish?"
Complicating matters, in a single Latino family there may be, across generations, diversity in language, citizenship, even immigration status. Family members will put political information in English and Spanish to different uses. Tijerino says he gets most news and advertising from English-language sources, while still glancing at Spanish-language sources. His father and uncles speak English and are registered voters -- but their primary sources are in Spanish, secondary in English.
We've reached this point after a primary and general election cycle where Spanish has played a bigger role than ever, and the politics of language has seemed ready to explode at any moment.
You can date the new Latinized age -- with all its irony and paradox -- to the spring of 2007, when Newt Gingrich, not a candidate himself, apologized for saying that anything but English is "the language of living in a ghetto." To do penance, he went on YouTube -- and spoke for several minutes in grammatically flawless Spanish, which he studies assiduously.
There arose the first major Latino presidential primary contender and fluent Spanish speaker, Bill Richardson -- who never found a way to let Latino voters know he was Latino without coming off as too Latino. Another contender, Christopher Dodd, gave discourses in his decent Peace Corps Spanish, while Mitt Romney tried some phrases on the trail in Miami that backfired when he inadvertently quoted Fidel Castro's favorite battle cry.
Meanwhile, on the Hill, the Senate was debating whether English should be the "national" or "official" language.
Politicians have wanted to have it both ways ever since Jackie Kennedy delivered a campaign commercial in Spanish on behalf of her husband in 1960. They have wanted to reach Latinos by any means necessary -- but they have not wanted to show weakness in their allegiance to English and "American" culture.
Thus, when Obama does speak of his plan to give illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, he always makes clear it will include a requirement that they learn English.
But this week, he is speaking Spanish. Mano a mano, McCain hasn't matched Obama's linguistic feat. But his campaign reacted to the Spanish ad with a statement -- in English and Spanish -- from Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), who said in part: "This election is about more than beautiful words."
Obama's campaign overstated the case when it claimed Obama is "the first presidential candidate" to deliver an ad in Spanish. John Kerry did it in 2004 in an ad created by Chambers's firm.
Spanish affords one subtlety lacking in English to communicate a candidate's personal style: Kerry used the formal "su voto" in asking for "your vote," while Obama has adopted the informal "tu voto" to make the same appeal.
Speaking Spanish is good as far as it goes, say members of the target audience. But there's more to Latinos than the language of the old countries.
"Thinking you're going to reach the entire diverse Latino population by doing a Spanish-language advertisement is as naive as thinking that you're going to connect with all Latinos by saying 'Happy Cinco de Mayo' to Peruvians and Nicaraguans," Tijerino says. "But I do appreciate the effort by Senator Obama."
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Obama Airs 30-Minute Spot, Releases Anti-Palin Ad
BYLINE: Peter Slevin; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A06
LENGTH: 1179 words
DATELINE: SUNRISE, Fla., Oct. 29
Eager to cement his case for the presidency in voters' minds before the campaign's frenetic final weekend, Sen. Barack Obama blitzed the television airwaves and deployed one of the Democratic Party's biggest names to deliver his message of change.
Obama's campaign spent more than $3 million to air a 30-minute infomercial on seven networks simultaneously. He appeared at one Florida rally with his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., and another with former president Bill Clinton as local news shows went live in this crucial battleground state.
The campaign also unleashed its first advertisement critical of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin as Obama addressed big crowds Florida and North Carolina, where he hopes to snap a Republican run.
In a day capped with a taped interview on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show," the Illinois Democrat also cautioned his supporters against overconfidence despite his lead in most polls. He told them: "Don't believe for a second this election's over."
In the 30-minute advertisement, which GOP nominee John McCain dismissed as a "gauzy, feel-good commercial," Obama aimed to etch a portrait as a candidate who understands the economic toll the nation is enduring and who would turn the page on the current administration.
He introduced voters -- a group carefully selected by his campaign that cut across lines of geography and race and discussed their struggles with mortgage payments, access to health care and fears of a losing a job.
Obama offered details about his approach to issues such as housing, taxes, the Iraq war and energy policy. Between snippets of speeches and endorsements from colleagues, he spoke of his mother, who died of cancer, and said, "We've been talking about the same problems for decades, and nothing is ever done to solve them."
The program ended with two minutes of live footage of Obama speaking to 20,000 cheering supporters in South Florida, where he hopes to stockpile votes in a state in which polls show him with a slender advantage. As the national audience tuned in, Obama said: "In six days, we can choose hope over fear and unity over division. The promise of change over the power of the status quo."
McCain was skeptical, likening Obama to an infomercial salesman.
"He's offering government-run health care," the Republican told a crowd in Riviera Beach, Fla., "an energy plan guaranteed to work without drilling . . . and an automatic wealth spreader that folds neatly and fits under any bed."
Obama scheduled his first public appearance with Clinton in the general-election campaign for a rally near Orlando timed for the 11 p.m. news. Clinton, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, backed him only after questioning his readiness during a bitter primary fight but is now campaigning on his behalf in a string of contested states.
The pair, introduced as "the 42nd president and the next president," took the stage to cheers from a crowd of 35,000. Declaring that Obama "represents the future," Clinton predicted that Obama would be a smart president "who wants to understand, and he can understand."
To demonstrate that his support is firm, Clinton gave four reasons to choose him:
He pointed to Obama's philosophy, policies, his ability to make a decision and his ability to execute that decision. Saying that Obama "represents the future" he called on the crowd to "find the people who are still teetering and wavering, and tell them why they ought to be with us."
Clinton asked the crowd to vote, and then go out and "find the people who are still teetering and wavering, and tell them why they ought to be with us."
The timing of the Obama-Clinton appearance is a tactic the campaign intends to repeat in the coming days. An aide said a central goal is to maximize face time on local news broadcasts -- and to cover as much ground as possible before he votes Tuesday in Chicago.
By the end of the day Saturday, Obama will have campaigned in eight states in four days, moving from North Carolina to Florida, then north to Virginia and west to Missouri, Iowa and Indiana. On Saturday, he plans to start in Nevada and finish in Colorado.
"It's campaign from dawn to dusk," the aide said. "We're campaigning as though we're five points down, to the very end."
The decision to bombard the airwaves on Wednesday and Thursday was grounded in the belief that, by Friday, much of the media coverage will be focused on the horse race and producing stories heavily influenced by the candidates' last-minute travels and maneuvers.
By Monday, Obama strategist David Axelrod said, it will be too late because the vast majority of voters will have chosen a candidate.
"At this stage," Obama told host Jon Stewart on "The Daily Show," "everything that needs to be said has probably been heard by a lot of voters, and what you want to do is just remind them one more time, 'Here's what I'm going to do,' not oversell, and let people make up their own minds."
McCain and the Republican National Committee made their own case, with ads that called Obama unready for the White House. One called him "risky." Another airing frequently in North Carolina shows stormy seas and asks, "What if this storm does get worse?" Perhaps most striking was a McCain spot arguing that the Democrat is not ready for the White House "yet."
The ad also mocks Obama's Internet-savvy campaign by finishing with the words "Barack Obama: untested."
Obama's newest 30-second advertisements directly target Palin after weeks of letting others question her credentials. The campaign links McCain's comments about the economy with the Alaska governor, who until last year was the mayor of a town of 6,000.
Against a gloomy backdrop, the silent ad presents McCain's own statements, including the December comment that "the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should."
The final comment comes from a November debate among GOP rivals, when he said, "I might have to rely on a vice president that I select." The screen shifts to two words -- "His choice?" -- and a video of Palin speaking and winking.
Obama's campaign has long shied away from direct criticism of Palin. But with opinion polls showing widespread doubts about her ability to handle the duties of the Oval Office, an Obama aide said the advertisement was designed to use McCain's words to raise doubts about his own ability to deal with the economy, "and what he hopes to get out of his vice presidential candidate."
The campaign, the aide said, wants voters to ask themselves "whether they're comfortable with Sarah Palin in that role."
In Raleigh, N.C., where 28,000 people gathered on a windswept downtown common, Obama joked about McCain's attempt to label him a socialist.
"Lately, he calls me a socialist for wanting to roll back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans so we can finally give tax relief to the middle class," Obama said.
"I don't know -- by the end of the week he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten. I shared my peanut butter and jelly sandwich."
LOAD-DATE: October 30, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, introduced as "the 42nd president and the next president," appeared before a crowd of 35,000 at a campaign rally near Orlando. Clinton said Obama "represents the future."
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Suburban Edition
ObamaVision: An Appeal to the Masses
BYLINE: Tom Shales
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 869 words
Barack Obama fired the final salvo in the great battle of images that is the 2008 presidential campaign last night with a half-hour, multimillion-dollar television infomercial that could be considered not the "feel-good" but rather the "feel-better" movie of the year.
Somehow both poetic and practical, spiritual and sensible, the paid political broadcast, which aired on seven major cable and broadcast networks (on Univision, it was identified as "Historias Americanas"), was a montage of montages, a series of seamlessly blended segments interweaving the stories of embattled Americans with visions of their deliverer, Guess Who.
As political filmmaking, "Barack Obama: American Stories" was an elegant combination of pictures, sounds, voices and music designed not so much to sell America on Barack Obama as to communicate a sensibility. The film conveyed feelings, not facts -- specifically, a simulation of how it would feel to live in an America with Barack Obama in the White House. The tone and texture recalled the "morning in America" campaign film made on behalf of Ronald Reagan, a work designed to give the audience a sense of security and satisfaction; things are going to be all right.
Obama was narrator of his film, but also its star, appearing in excerpts from speeches delivered before tremendous crowds (including the finale to the Democratic convention, a nearly biblical pageant), sitting or standing in a flag-bedecked office that looked comfortable and White Housey, and in campaign footage out amongst the folks, the people, the faithful, the huddled masses.
It also included brief testimonials from estimable figures -- running mate Joe Biden; Michelle Obama, the candidate's wife; Google chief executive Eric Schmidt; Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine; New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson; and others.
Absent were the kinds of figures and graphics featured in some of Obama's bread-and-butter commercials: his economic plan vs. that of competitor John McCain, his health plan vs. that of McCain, and so on. And while there was some outright rhetoric ("the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression" . . . "eight years of failed policies"), most of the talk was conversational in that laid-back, not-to-worry, calmly passionate, defiantly hopeful Obaman way.
Although McCain was not seen during the half-hour, one could easily summon the contrasting image of the Republican while watching Obama. McCain has come across on television as relatively worried, whiny, fusty and falsely folksy. He brought bad news; he has come to epitomize and personify it. Obama brings you medication along with the list of symptoms; he has developed a great bedside, as well as fireside, manner.
It was the easiest thing in the world, watching the skillfully edited hodgepodge put together by his campaign, to picture Obama as president. That's one thing the film was designed to do, especially for the doubters and those scared, "undecided" voters out there.
The vignettes -- Obama called them "stories that reflect the state of our union" -- were brief and dealt with or had ties to the current global economic strife. In North Kansas City, Mo., a family of eight in which the husband and father continues working at a tire retread plant even though he should have a leg operation, because he can't afford it. In Sardinia, Ohio, would-be retirees who have to defer the "golden years" because of a home equity loan and the lack of health insurance.
Interspersed with the vignettes were Obama's personal stories of hardships overcome while growing up and of the values inculcated by the grandmother who was largely in charge of raising him. For the umpty-umpth time, he told the story of how Granny woke his 8-year-old self up at 4:30 a.m. to go over homework and how, when he grumbled about it, she'd respond with, "Well, this is no picnic for me, either, buster."
Obama also spoke again of his mother's death from cancer, and how an insurance company refused to pay for the care she needed because her illness was coldly deemed "a preexisting condition." What Obama promises to fight are a number of preexisting conditions, too. Strangely or not, one of those -- the war in Iraq -- was barely mentioned. The war being fought by those portrayed in the film is strictly on the home front, though there was a weirdly retro reference at one point to curbing "Russian aggression."
The half-hour was underscored with music in a kind of elegiac, Aaron Copland mode -- sorrow and stature. Obama seemed as heroic a figure as Henry Fonda's Tom Joad in "The Grapes of Wrath," but with more of a Jimmy Stewart personality. He has come, the film said, to show us all the way, and if we don't know it by now, and after all those millions spent to tell us, it's our fault.
There didn't have to be a big finish to the show, but there was: a live appearance by Obama, joined at the last moment by Biden, from a stadium in Florida. "America, the time for change has come," Obama boomed, and the crowd's roar grew louder with his voice. Now it seemed to be turning into a Frank Capra movie; after all, "Grapes of Wrath" did not have a happy ending, but, according to last night's multicast -- in spectacular ObamaRama -- this movie will.
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CORRECTION-DATE: November 8, 2008
CORRECTION: · An Oct. 30 Style review of Barack Obama's 30-minute infomercial the week before the election incorrectly described an anecdote about a young Obama being awakened to go over his homework. Obama said he was awakened by his mother, not his grandmother.
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; Images From Obama Campaign Via Associated Press; Scenes from "Barack Obama: American Stories" included the candidate in a setting evoking the Oval Office and meeting with a family whose lot his administration's policies would presumably improve.
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Suburban Edition
Both Camps Underscore Choices
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 642 words
THE AD
Behind the fancy speeches, grand promises and TV special lies the truth: With crises at home and abroad, Barack Obama lacks the experience America needs. And it shows. His response to our economic crisis is to spend and tax our economy deeper into recession. The fact is, Barack Obama's not ready -- yet.
ANALYSIS
The most telling word in this John McCain ad is the last one: "yet."
By charging that Barack Obama is not experienced enough to lead the country -- yet -- the McCain camp is making an appeal to those who would like to see Obama in the White House one day but have qualms about his thin national résumé. The implicit suggestion is that the Navy veteran is the safe choice while the former community organizer from Chicago should be given time to become a more seasoned leader.
The commercial reprises the theme of McCain's Paris Hilton ad this summer -- which mocked Obama as a celebrity -- by showing rapid images of the senator from Illinois speaking to huge crowds, in one instance before the Greek columns erected for his Democratic convention speech. This gives way to grim images of a boarded-up house, unsold cars and a depressed-looking woman with her daughter.
The spot is also an attempt to blunt what it calls the "TV special," the unusual 30-minute Obama infomercial that aired last night.
The accusation that Obama would tax the country into a deep recession is misleading, as were previous McCain ads, because Obama proposes to increase taxes only on those earning more than $250,000, while cutting rates for 95 percent of taxpayers. Obama is pushing major spending programs, such as one to extend health insurance, but insists that his budget pays for them. The commercial uses pictures instead to help depict Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal, a standard Republican charge that has become McCain's closing argument.
What's not clear is whether the novel argument that Obama might be ready someday, but not now, will prove persuasive with wavering voters.
THE AD
Text: "I'm going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated."
Wall Street Journal, 11/26/05
"The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should."
Boston Globe Political Intelligence, 12/18/07
"I might have to rely on a vice president that I select" for expertise on economic issues.
GOP Debate, 11/28/07
His choice? [Footage of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin winking]
On November 4th, You Get to Make Yours
ANALYSIS
This Barack Obama ad is a complete departure from a two-month strategy of largely ignoring John McCain's running mate.
By showing the briefest snippet of Sarah Palin winking, the commercial tries to convey that she is too frivolous to be vice president or a potential president -- all without a spoken word from a narrator. In an apparent effort to avoid a backlash over criticizing a female candidate, the ad frames the choice of the rookie Alaska governor entirely as a matter of McCain's judgment.
Since Aug. 29, when the senator from Arizona unveiled Palin as his choice, Obama (and running mate Joseph R. Biden Jr.) has carefully described her as a competent politician in an effort to avoid having the Democratic nominee run against the No. 2 candidate, who happens to be a woman. This ad is surprising because Obama is ahead in the polls in this final week and has no urgent need to make Palin the issue.
But with some polls showing that a majority of Americans regard her as unqualified to be vice president, the commercial deftly uses McCain's own words to tie his past admissions of uncertainty on the economy -- the overriding issue in this campaign -- to the choice of the increasingly controversial Palin. She is used as a visual punch line to discredit the man who chose her.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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He's Everywhere: Obama Wraps Small-Screen Barrage With 'Daily Show' Appearance
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C07
LENGTH: 975 words
"This is the Obama infomercial!" Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama conceded to Jon Stewart on "The Daily Show" last night of his 30-minute time buy on CBS, NBC, Fox, MSNBC, Univision, BET and TV One.
In a satellite interview that aired three hours after Obama's half-hour message to the American public, the senator told the late-night cable-show host that he hoped people would come away with the feeling that "this election is really important" and that the four struggling families profiled in the infomercial would remind them of someone they know.
"At this stage, everything that needs to be said probably has been heard by a lot of voters," Obama acknowledged.
All day long, Barack Obamavision had been on the minds of the made-for-TV navel-gazers in the small-screen firmament.
Most of them had some fun with that clip of Obama's GOP rival, John McCain, mocking the time buy:
He's measuring the drapes, and he's planning his first address to the nation, an infomercial. By the way, I will never delay the start of the World Series for an infomercial.
Fox News Channel reported that "tonight it's almost all Obama all the time -- on Fox, CBS, Univision, NBC and three other TV stations. Starting at 8 p.m., Barack Obama will star in the largest campaign buy in history -- a last-minute, 30-minute plea to undecided voters and a living testament to his campaign's deep pockets."
The Obama camp's purchase of time on the major broadcast networks -- ABC excepted -- and several cable networks, reportedly cost $3 million to $5 million.
On CNN, Jessica Yellin reported breathlessly that Obama would be "interrupting prime time for millions of Americans."
On ABC News's "Good Morning America," they trotted out clips of Elisabeth Hasselbeck discussing the time buy with sometime-ABC News-journalist Barbara Walters on Babs's Sirius satellite radio show, "Barbara Live":
Babs: He's got the money and he wants to win.
Hasselbeck: That to me is, in terms of the economy -- that is repulsive.
Just to make sure we're clear here:
1. ABC News
2. Covering the campaign strategy of a presidential candidate -- the country's historic first African American major-party presidential candidate
3. Using quotes from former "Survivor" contestant turned daytime-TV hostess
4. And, again, not to put too fine a point on it -- ABC News.
Back in the comfort of her own show, ABC's syndicated "The View," Hasselbeck toned it down a bit. "I just think at this point to spend $1 million per network on this ad seems a little excessive," she said.
"It bothers me a bit we can't ask him -- it's a 30-minute ad. . . . People I think have a lot of questions, especially now, given his spread-the-wealth conversation," Hasselbeck told the other Ladies of "The View." (Babs was noticeably missing, though it's also her show.)
Moderator Whoopi Goldberg explained, slowly, to Hasselbeck that when people contribute to Obama's campaign, "that money is not meant to be given to the person to go and give to charity. . . . That is to get out [the candidate's] word. And he's doing it. And I think you can't fault the guy. I'm pretty sure if John McCain had the opportunity and the dough, he would probably do the same thing, as most candidates would."
"But Barack broke his promise -- he said he'd take public financing," Hasselbeck whined.
"That's the point you want to make. The point that I am making is that the people gave him this money to do exactly what he's doing with it," Whoopi shot back.
"GMA" also trotted out footage of the last presidential candidate to make campaign time buys: billionaire Ross Perot in 1992, making his case by using flow charts, to which he pointed with a "voodoo stick" Perot said had been sent to him by some lady.
"It's unclear that Senator Obama will use flow charts or not," ABC News's senior national correspondent Jake Tapper told viewers at home.
Nice.
Tapper also noted that Obama was running a grave "oversaturation" risk, because his 30-minute message to voters will appear on three whole broadcast networks and a handful of cable nets, not to mention a same-day sit-down on ABC's own evening newscast and an appearance on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show."
Over at NBC's "Today" show, Chris Matthews likened the time buy to the election-eve speech John F. Kennedy delivered from Faneuil Hall in Boston 48 years ago, and said what Obama needs to do in his 30 minutes is make white men feel better.
"The toughest thing that neither candidate has really done yet, and Barack included, they haven't really gone to the American male -- white male, if you want to put it that way, brutally -- and said to them, 'Look, you've got a tough row to hoe. . . . You take pride in providing for your family and putting food on the table and maybe getting the kids into college. . . . I'm going to help you do it. I'm not going to get in the way with high taxes. . . . I'm going to be one of your helpers. I'm not going to get in your way,' " Matthews said Obama needs to say.
CBS's "The Early Show" went out and found two former White House gofers -- Dee Dee Myers and Dan Bartlett -- to debate the merits of the time buy. Myers, who was an aide to Bill Clinton, noted this is the first time a real contender for president has had the resources to make a time buy across three broadcast networks and multiple cable nets. Bartlett, a former George W. Bush aide, said Obama ran the risk of looking like he thinks he already has the job, "taking over network time like this."
During his one-on-one with Obama for the ABC evening newscast, Charlie Gibson was not joined by Hasselbeck, and he did not talk to Obama over his Skinny Glasses of Intimidation and did not ask him to explain the Bush Doctrine. Instead, Gibson asked Obama such penetrating questions as: "Finish this sentence: 'On November 5, I'm so happy I won't have to . . .' "
(Obama went with "pack.")
LOAD-DATE: October 30, 2008
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October 30, 2008 Thursday 2:00 PM EST
Election 2008: Both Sides With Tucker Carlson and Ana Marie Cox
BYLINE: Tucker Carlson and Ana Marie Cox, MSNBC Senior Campaign Correspondent; Time Magazine Blogger, Radar Magazine Washington Editor, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3645 words
HIGHLIGHT: Conservative MSNBC senior campaign correspondent and Daily Beast contributor Tucker Carlson and liberal Radar Magazine Washington editor and Time Magazine blogger Ana Marie Cox were online Thursday, Oct. 30 at 2 p.m. ET (and every Wednesday afternoon through Nov. 5) to dissect and debate the issues and latest developments in the 2008 campaigns.
Conservative MSNBC senior campaign correspondent and Daily Beast contributor Tucker Carlson and liberal Radar Magazine Washington editor and Time Magazine blogger Ana Marie Cox were online Thursday, Oct. 30 at 2 p.m. ET (and every Wednesday afternoon through Nov. 5) to dissect and debate the issues and latest developments in the 2008 campaigns.
The transcript follows.
____________________
Ana Marie Cox: Hello. I'm in Real America with Sarah Palin, who assures me that it's real.
_______________________
Minneapolis: Ana Marie -- read your post on Nicole Wallace, then I heard that even Palin was "blaming" her too. The Latest is that Palin called to smooth things over with her. I read the transcripts but was there subtext/tone that you picked up on?
washingtonpost.com: A Q and A With Nicolle Wallace, Palin's Chaperone Daily Beast, Oct. 28
Ana Marie Cox: I think Nicole was understandably annoyed and frustrated that someone who was a total stranger would call her a coward on national TV, and one of the reasons why we're all so captivated by stories like this is that this is the story of a losing campaign -- the sniping and the blame game. Nicole's a smart girl, and knows that even talking about it feeds into that narrative, and so she was frustrated. She doesn't even know who to be frustrated with.
The other weird thing about that story is that we know who spent that money -- it wasn't Nicole. There's a name on the bill the RNC put out.
And an aside: Here's how real the America I'm in -- I can't even get 3G access for my lap-top right now.
_______________________
Garfield, N.J.: Hey, love The Beast, and Time, well, it's not that bad either. Which is more startling, Palin going into business on her own, or Sheppard Smith straying from the straight Roger Ailes line? Did you see him go after that formidable intellectual Joe the Plumber? At first I wondered if Fox had taken away his parking spot, but I notice that Chris Wallace has transgressed more and more frequently in recent days. Could this be a slight course shift at Fox to mark the collapse of Bush/Cheney radicalism and the emergence of MSNBC as the liberal network? An effort to move slightly to the center, like candidates do?
Tucker Carlson: Good afternoon. And thanks for the nice words about the Daily Beast. I did see the Shepard Smith/Joe the Plumber clip. Amazing. But I think you may be reading too much into it. I doubt what Smith said was a reaction to any another network, or part of larger strategy. My impression was, he simply couldn't stand to listen to remarks that stupid without challenging them. It happens.
Ana Marie Cox: I think Fox and Friends is a remarkably low bar for intellectual discussion, but Sheppard has always struck me as at least concious of his own intellectual dignity. I also think the Fox Network is properly seen as a GOP instrument, not a Bush instrument -- they pushed back very hard on his immigration plan. I think this is part of the breakdown you see with McCain at the top of the ticket vs. the "Real America." With mcCain looking like he'll lose, Ailes may be positioning the network for after the election, not wanting to look like they're part of the McCain campaign.
_______________________
Washington: I'm an Obama fan, but I thought that his 30-minute infomercial was a bit much. That whole "amber waves of grain" opening shot did not tear at my heartstrings, it made me roll my eyes. Was this smart campaigning? To me it was just overkill, and it emphasized that I want this election -- more so the campaign -- tediousness to be over with, ASAP!
Tucker Carlson: To Obama people, there's no such thing as too much Barack. The concept doesn't even compute. Could you have too much happiness? A glut of joy? A surfeit of inner peace?
Let's be honest: It's a cult. They're not moderate on the subject of Obama's greatness.
Ana Marie Cox: Well, I think there is a segment of Obama supporters who deserve Tucker's sarcasm, but I think you should remember that the majority of the people who will vote for him haven't gotten a tattoo or worse. They're average Americans who have decided that they want him to be their next president.
If there was any risk of overkill, I think those people avoided the show. I think strategically for Obama, the bigger thing was that people knew he bought prime-time ads on seven different networks. He could have shown the Yule-Tide log or burning stacks of cash for half and hour and it would have sent the appropriate message -- I have so much money, I can do whatever we want.
_______________________
Please define: What does it mean to be "functionally tied in the battleground states"? Thank you.
Tucker Carlson: It means we don't have confidence in the poll numbers we're getting, so who knows what could happen?
Ana Marie Cox: Again, I'm forced to agree with Tucker. It means they're functionally unable to admit that they're probably going to lose. They are right that anything could happen, though.
I think "functionally tied" brings a whole new definition to "functional." I don't think I want my contractor telling me "your toilet is functionally fixed -- try it out, see what happens!"
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Roseland, N.J.: Tucker, any comment on Cloris Leachman lasting longer on "Dancing With the Stars" than you?
Tucker Carlson: I'm not surprised. I haven't seen the show lately -- or any non-campaign-related television -- but I'm sure she's better than I was. Anyone would be. I was terrible, remember? It was a blessing to be euthanized after one episode.
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Baltimore: So, will Joe Lieberman have a committee chair come January? Heck, will he have a committee seat anywhere come January?
Tucker Carlson: Democrats badly want to kick Lieberman out of the party. Badly. I don't think there's any question they'll try to prevent him from being chairman of anything in the new congress.
Ana Marie Cox: I that has to be balanced with the fact that Democratic leadership realizes it won't do much good to punish him. It would be an ego-trippy thing to do that would have meaning only within the Senate. There are other ways to punish Joe Lieberman. He has to be Joe Lieberman for the rest of his life. I'm not saying it won't happen, but there are more rational heads in the game who might prevent it from happening.
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Iowa: Looking back on this painfully long and torturously twisted election campaign, what single event surprised each of you the most?
Tucker Carlson: Hillary losing. I never thought it could happen. The Clintons considered the Democratic Party their personal property, and for good reason. They controlled everything. Except apparently they didn't. I'm still amazed she's not the nominee. I suspect she feels the same way.
Ana Marie Cox: I'm going to invert Tucker's answer and say Barack winning the nomination. I never was fully sold on the Clinton candidacy, but I think the extraordinary campaign Obama has run and his incredible story don't stop being incredible just because he's on his way to the White House. People talked about him running four years ago, and there once was a glimmer that Colin Powell might run for the presidency, but I think even a year ago there was a good percent of Americans who would not have believed that with the very sordid racial relations history we have that we'd get to this point so quickly, and with so little violence or controversy.
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Columbia, Md.:"Powerful House Democrats are eyeing proposals to overhaul the nation's $3 trillion 401(k) system, including the elimination of most of the $80 billion in annual tax breaks that 401(k) investors receive." If this is true, why would anyone want to vote for Obama and the Democrats?
Tucker Carlson: Good question. It's hard to believe they could get away with that, though. There'd be a revolt.
Ana Marie Cox: I think that too. This has been another edition of "What Tucker Said."
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Richmond, Va.: Ana, has Butterstick endorsed a candidate yet?
Ana Marie Cox: I think Butterstick is running on his own ticket. He would win, but there are some questions about his citizenship I think. Talk about a unity ticket, talk about some racial healing. The Stickman. I'd vote for Butterstick. The Stick in '16.
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Sniff: However are we going to cope after next Wednesday? Its like having our favorite couple written out of one of our soaps. Surely, you two are not going to leave us? CNN, I got an idea for you...
Tucker Carlson: Thanks. But take heart: as in your favorite soap, no matter how preposterous the storyline, we can always be written back in.
Ana Marie Cox: That's right. And remember -- we'll be back on Wednesday after the election. It'll be like the reunion episode of a reality show, only we won't fight. You will find out that we've been secretly married the entire time.
I think someone should put Tucker and I on a reality show. I'm not sure what we would do. Maybe cook?
Tucker Carlson: Bicker, but in a charming way.
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Washington: As a person who studied political propaganda in college, and who ended up writing several film school papers and a politics papers on propaganda, I have to say that Obama's half-hour ad rivals the work of Leni Riefenstahl in terms of its balance of imagery and symbolism in its attempts to redefine nationalism. From purely a talent standpoint I think that their campaign has raised the bar of propaganda, getting A-list directors involved in campaigning for them, and I worry this is going to happen more in the future, as most Americans are not trained to separate being in favor of a politician's policies vs. being swayed by beautiful imagery, soft music and excellent narration. Thoughts?
Tucker Carlson: Are you suggesting that people pay closer attention to pictures than to words? As someone who works in television, let me take a pass on that.
Ana Marie Cox: First of all, the Obama campaign's design aesthetic I think is one of the most innovative of any campaign, although compared to normal commercial presentation it isn't as impressive. It takes the design standards of companies like Apple and applies it to a politician. If you look at his campaign's branding scheme, it's flawless. It's pervasive. I think the cult-like atmosphere that Tucker talked about can be seen in this. People have embraced Obama almost the way they would a band.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good afternoon. There's a faction of the Republican party that is pre-blaming their losses this year to insufficient conservatism. I'll buy that with regard to the prescription drug program, but I don't see any evidence that that bill is hurting the Republican slate. Other than that, in what areas have the Republicans been too liberal, on things that really matter? By that I mean, you can't say earmarks, because earmarks are pretty small potatoes in the context of our budget, and include popular items such as aid to Israel.
Ana Marie Cox: I think the bailout struck a lot of conservatives as not being conservative at all. And McCain has a whole history of party apostasy.
Tucker Carlson: That's for sure. It's pretty hard to argue you're the conservative free-market guy when you're in favor of nationalizing industries.
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Ana Marie Cox: The seemlessness of Obama's branding and the relentlessness of it tends to make people think of that candidate as less a person working for them, which is what politicians are. When you have someone set themselves up as less your employee and more as your leader, it becomes harder to set the same standards for them. It's something that happened with Republicans with Reagan and carried over to Bush, and he was able to be a terrible leader for years and years before the cult of personality wore off. People need to think of Obama as just another person who happens to be president, with the same capability for mistakes.
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Bayonet Point, Fla.: Here in West Central Florida, the campaign has gotten very ugly. Every day there are letters and editorials in the local papers denouncing the "Socialist Obama." Today there was actually a letter stating that Democrats were "anti-Christian" and that a vote for Obama was a vote for Satan. This has gotten ridiculous! People actually are destroying political signs on private property. My question is, no matter who is elected. Do you think these wounds and divisiveness ever can be healed?
Tucker Carlson: Yes. A blowout will lower the volume. I'm not impressed by Obama's ideas (to the extent I even understand what they are) and I'm not voting for him. But I do think a decisive victory would improve the atmosphere, because landslides always do. We had three elections in a row ('92, '96 and 2000) in which the winner didn't win the majority of the popular vote. This allowed the losing party to act as if the guy who beat them didn't really win and wasn't really the legitimate president. By contrast, when you get unequivocally spanked -- Mondale '84, for example -- you have no choice but to accept that you lost fairly and deal with it. That's a good thing. So while I'm not hoping for an Obama victory, I do hope that if he does win it's by a significant margin, simply so we won't be arguing about it for the next four years.
Ana Marie Cox: I'm trying to avoid having all my answers be "Tucker has a good point," although he does. But I don't think the popular vote will be that much of a blowout. Not that it matters, except in the sort of psychological ways Tucker mentions. However, I think the people behaving in the terrible ways Bayonet Point mentions are a very small minority who will be properly shamed. I think they're responsible for McCain falling in the polls, really. I don't know if anyone's seen the Liddy Dole ad accusing Kay Hagen of literally being godless, but it's the most over-the-top thing outside of "Saturday Night Live." I couldn't even get offended by it, in a way, because I didn't think anyone would buy it. People will turn off their television sets and vote for Kay Hagen. I think this is why you're seeing a lot of Republican defectors -- they don't see anger as the proper campaigning tone for the mood of the country, and they're rejecting that anger, probably moreso than they're rejecting McCain.
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Re: Wednesday: Which pundits should we be watching Wednesday for the most egregious over-statements and/or greatest chance of on-air heart attack?
Ana Marie Cox: Well, Chris Matthews never really fails to deliver moments of high drama, and he does often seem to be hyperventilating if not actually having a heart attack -- and I say that with love. But I think there's a lot of people, mostly in New York, who are going to be giddy -- I waxed sort of rhapsodic about Obama's place in history myself and I think you'll see a lot of that. "Oh wow, we're such a great country for doing this!" And if he loses, I think a lot of media elite will operate on the assumption of voter fraud.
Tucker Carlson: Voter fraud, but also -- perhaps mostly -- racism. A McCain victory would, in the eyes of the media, prove decisively that this is a bad country. Once the rioting stopped, we'd never hear the end of it.
I've never seen an election where the press framed the choice in starker moral terms: Obama deserves to win. All we need to do is get out of the way and let the right thing happen. In other words, this is more than a political contest; it's a referendum on our decency as a nation.
That's the bottom-line message from the pundit class.
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Evanston, Illinois: Dana Milbank, in his chat, just endorsed Cynthia McKinney on the grounds that she would be the best material for his work. In your opinions who would be the best choice for the comedy industry?
Ana Marie Cox: I might be alone in this, but I think that with great power comes great comedic potential. People have been saying that Obama has been so on-point it'll be hard to find laughs, whereas McCain would be a font of humor. But when you put someone in a position of tremendous responsibility, they're automatically opened up for ridicule. That's how it should be. Thou shalt make fun of your leaders.
Tucker Carlson: You'll never shake me from my conviction that Al Sharpton would have been the most amusing president ever. (Full disclosure: He promised to make me head of Amtrak if he won, so I had a vested interest in promoting him.) This year, though, Dennis Kucinich stole my heart in the first few debates, and never gave it back. The biomass campaign bus? The Department of Peace? The Roswell connections? Come on. He was the best.
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Bethesda, Md.: Tucker, I loved your essays about traveling with the 2000 Straight Talk Express (especially the boozing driver). How has the McCain campaign changed since then?
Tucker Carlson: I was a magazine writer then, not a TV guy, so I had a much more tactile sense of the campaign then I do now. But I did travel with McCain in the primaries and have many friends on the road with him now, and my sense is it's a lot more buttoned-up and regimented and sober, and probably less profane and fun. Of course it would have to be. There's more at stake this time. But the main difference is obvious to anyone watching the coverage from home: In 2000, when he was running against Bush, the press liked McCain and gave him the benefit of the doubt. Now that he's a speed bump on the way to the Obama coronation, he gets no such courtesy. The media have contempt for him, and he for them. All very hostile. It's sad to see. The 2000 McCain campagin really was fun as hell to cover.
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Mt. Vernon, Va.: Can we bury the myth of the "October Surprise" once and for all? Every presidential election year pundits predict one, yet as far as I know such a surprise never, ever has occurred.
Tucker Carlson: There are all sort of October surprises. I've got an in-box full of them right now, some of which are probably even true. The thing is, they never change the course of the election. People discount late revelations as false or unfair even when they're not. Plus, this year a lot of the voting has already taken place.
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North Carolina: Honestly, is this race sewn up for Obama? Is there a reason to stay up on Election Night?
Tucker Carlson: Of course there is: To watch cable news.
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Florissant, Mo.: I have to say, it would have been nice if Obama taken some of the half-hour to focus on what's important -- Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, endangering children, being a celebrity, Paris Hilton, Britney Spears and ACORN. Instead we heard all about people whining because they can't make ends meet, then paying over $20 to take their families out to dinner. Whiners.
Ana Marie Cox: Phil Gramm, is that you?
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Asheville, N.C.: Watching so many prominent centrist Republicans walking out on McCain, it's hard to remember this was once the guy who's biggest problem was going to be motivating the "base." Frankly, today's loss of the center just seems shocking in that context. Was it really all Palin, or was a civil war in the Republican Party inevitable this year?
Tucker Carlson: Both. The choice of Palin did shock a lot of establishment Republicans, though some have used to her as a pretext to do the convenient thing and bail on a losing campaign. But the real problem is what you suggest: The GOP has no idea what it is at the moment. Big-government social conservatives (i.e., many evangelicals) have just about nothing in common with socially-liberal free-market types. Huckabee and Giuliani, in other words, really don't belong in the same party. So whose party is it? That's what the current fight is about.
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Germantown, Md.: One of the two senators must lose the election; who has burnt more bridges with his party and Senate colleagues? I would think that, in part because of age, Sen. McCain might have less influence (unless of course he becomes a Sen. Byrd or Sen. Stevens).
Ana Marie Cox: I think, despite what we were saying about Lieberman earlier, that the Senate is such an exclusive club than civilians might think. McCain is a known quantity. I think he might have some trouble with Chris Dodd and Joe Biden, because of how they used their relationship with him to delegitimize him, but I don't think any of McCain's actual relationships will be affected. I think Obama, win or lose, will be one of the most popular guys in the Senate. No senator would say no to that kind of fundraising power.
I have to go, thank you, and thanks Tucker. I've got to go into the bunker for a Palin rally.
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Evanston, Ill.: Hey Tuck Tuck -- I loved the fact that you supported Ron Paul and featured him on MSNBC. What did you make of those racially provocative newsletters that surfaced from the '90s? Apparently Lew Rockwell ghosted them, but they still were published and disseminated under Paul's name.
Tucker Carlson: Ron Paul has a lot of great and interesting and important things to say. The problem with libertarians is that they have trouble keeping the wackos out of their movement. They so hate to tell other people what to do, they have trouble drawing the line. It's a temperament thing. What makes them decent people(their hatred of authoritarianism), makes them terrible at politics. It's too bad, I think.
Thanks a lot for having me. See you next Wednesday.
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washingtonpost.com: Discussion: University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
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Washingtonpost.com
October 30, 2008 Thursday 2:00 PM EST
Election 2008: Purple State Videos
BYLINE: Elizabeth Gotsdiner and Bert Sobanik, Citizen Journalists, Purple States, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 6112 words
HIGHLIGHT: Purple States citizen journalists Elizabeth Gotsdiner and Bert Sobanik were online Thursday, Oct. 30 at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the documentary video project, and what they've learned on their travels through swing states ahead of Tuesday's election.
Purple States citizen journalists Elizabeth Gotsdiner and Bert Sobanik were online Thursday, Oct. 30 at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the documentary video project, and what they've learned on their travels through swing states ahead of Tuesday's election.
The transcript follows.
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Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Hey everyone! It's Lizz!
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Dallas: What is the deal with Obama's plan. I first heard that everyone under 250,000 will get a tax break. Yesterday, Obama said now everyone will get it who makes under 200,000. Now we are hearing from Biden it is going to be 150,000. Is anyone going to get anything? Why the change in the last couple of days before election? Should he not change it then right after he wins?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I've been hearing all this same rhetoric. This is one issue that makes me uncomfortable with Obama. For starters, I think distribution of wealth is not the best idea. I believe in earning what's yours. Initially I found $250 K to be to little a number, but as the number has continued to drop I've been very turned off. Plus, these developments have happened after early voting, and maybe this would have swung some voters the other way. I have chosen to wait until voting day for a reason.
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St. Petersburg, Fla.: Many voters or potential voters feel that the two major parties are both failures in their own rights. It's apparent that the American populace clearly wields no true influence over its government (just look at the opposition to the bailout). As someone who shares concerns about civil liberties and war, but also about the failures of the welfare state and our undeniably socialist moves (especially the nationalization taking place right now), do you see any viable alternative to my motivation to vote third-party, if nothing else as a "protest vote"? Do you expect to see a spike in third-party votes this election season?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Third party candidates are candidates, and deserve the attention and recognition that comes along with running for the presidency. The mainstream media hasn't given them much time of day, but ya wonder what came first, the chicken or the egg? Is it due to the lack of coverage that they are not heard, or the do not recieve coverage because not enough voters identify with them?
I know a number of voters who are voting third party as "protest vote". The reasoning is logical enough, but I unfortunately am not familiar enough with these candidates to vote for them. What if I voted on principle alone and later found out that I disagreed with the fundamentals of the candidates? Bert has said this in the past, and I will reitterate. Vote your conscience.
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Brooklyn, N.Y.: How do swing-state voters react to the name-calling and negative campaigning? Do you see any credit going to the candidate who avoids doing this, or has negative campaigning in this cycle -- like many others -- worked to move swing voters?
Bert Sobanik: We in Maine are among the few states that actually divide out our minuscule number of electoral votes. There is talk that one will go to John McCain from the eastern district. That said I blanch when I see men one of whom will lead our country, take cheap shots during a commercial or a debate.
When I saw Huckabee getting all worked up at the debate in Myrtle Beach about how Iran would "enter the gates of hell" if they fired on one of our destroyers in the Straits I felt a little ashamed for him since it was so out of character from the way I knew him at the start of his campaign. He changed his demeanor entirely once the GOP handlers "remade" him.
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San Francisco: What steps are being undertaken to ensure that we have a "democratic" election, so that people are not disenfranchised again in swing states like Ohio, Florida and New Mexico? In what ways can journalists be diligent in getting real information out as opposed to parroting what they are being told, so that we can guarantee that the election has allowed for the sanctity of the vote?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Honestly, I was a little put off by Bush taking Florida in the last election. I voted for Kerry. But after I spoke with Kerry a few weeks ago in New Hampshire I now regret that vote. I wonder, though, how disenchanted I would have truly been during the last election had I known more about those guys... because I honestly really didn't know much. It was my first election.
Super delegates and electoral votes confuse me, and jeopardize the importance of my vote in my mind. But it still counts, and its still important! I was rooting for Ron Paul for some time, and I took criticism for supporting him. My point was if we vote honestly then we can see our faults. We can see what people care about, and who they truly support. But if people keep voting for the two main parties, how can we dog that? I mean, they are still getting the majority of the votes, right?
Bert Sobanik: The states themselves are responsible for maintaining the integrity of their voting system.
I would welcome oversight from internationals (from friendly Nations of course) who have no axe to grind here, to provide oversight, much as we have done in countries where election procedures are suspect.
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Pentagon City, Va.: I thought it was a tax increase if you make over 250K like Joe the Plumber, and a tax cut under 200K. So 200-250K would be status quo, i suppose.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Sorry, I don't have the published answers in front of me. Yes, I meant tax increase. Now, not to say that I think higher tax brackets should get tax cuts, and if the amount of money was more around one million and up I would be more comfortable with "taxing the rich". I just don't see $150-$250 K as being enough to tax along side the very rich.
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Realameri, CA:"distribution of wealth is not the best idea. I believe in earning what's yours."
News flash: The U.S. has had income taxes since 1861.
Bert Sobanik: The Bush tax cuts during a time of war are definitely a redistribution of wealth. The rich get richer, right now, later on when the debt gets distributed, I guarantee that the Lion's share ends up on the backs of the middle class,.....if there even is one at that time.
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New York, N.Y.: Can you tell us about the things you found most surprising when you got to interact with the candidates directly?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Well, at first I was terrified and nervous to speak to them. I thought that I was going to make a fool of myself, or they were going to be mean to me or laugh at my level of political knowledge. As time passed, I realized I had control, and the last thing they want to happen is for a camera to catch them being crude to a curious citizen. So I learned to take advantage of that. I think they are more scared of us than we are of them.
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Rolla, Mo.: Look, this isn't that hard. Obama has always said if you make less than $250,k you won't see your taxes go up. Above $250,k you'll see an increase. If you make less than $200,k you'll get a tax cut (between the two, no impact). Those under $150k will get a tax credit in addition to a cut. Can you understand?
Bert Sobanik: The promises made during campaign season have a way of giving way to reality once the candidate takes office. The deficits of recent time will become unacceptable to our creditors soon, at that time I think there will be another "new deal" where we have to start paying for more of our programs as we go instead of "later on"
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Shartlesville, Pa.: I don't understand what your point is in this video, Lizz. If Barack Obama is aiming too high with his plan, and John McCain is aiming too low, isn't the best idea to vote with the one who's at least trying?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I wouldn't necessarily say aiming high or low. I think it's more a matter of practicality and possibility. If McCain was a little more generous in healthcare I would much more comfortable with him, but I disagree with forcing people to pay into a pool for everyone. My main concern with Universal healthcare is the quality and availability of care. I don't see us holding our position of having the best medical practice in the world if we don't have restrictions on it.
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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Undecided still? Well there must be good reason. What are the issues that are keeping you from deciding? Perhaps the two major candidates seems like a choice between two evils. What are some of the best third-party options and what does voting for them actually accomplish? Also, I try to pick the issues that tie most closely into my concerns and the concerns of my family, and then whatever candidate's views are best, I support.
washingtonpost.com: Video: Still Undecided Just Days Before the Election (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 29)
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Of course all voting is relative to the voter. I'm pretty much decided at this point, but so nervous and skeptical about it. I wish our options were better. That's the truth. But who knows, I might get in that voting both and vote for Bill McKay.
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Durham, N.C.: I saw the video today. How can you be undecided? You have one guy happy to be in the quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan, and one guy who wants to leave. You have one guy who wants universal health coverage, and one guy who wants to throw you a tax credit. You have one guy who wants to "drill baby drill," and one guy who will drag his feet on drilling. You have one guy who wants more regulation of the banking industry, and one guy who really doesn't. One guy who raises money from corporate bundlers, and one guy who raises money $86 bucks at a time. This is about as black and white as it gets.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: To be entirely honest, everything they say are "promises". I found myself growing exceedingly skeptical as the year has passed, and now I'm in a rut and a hard place. For starters, They both want out of war, McCain just has a longer time table for that to actually happen. And as for Obama, he has changed his stance on his time table. Starting in the primaries he said "the day I become president I will begin bringing home one to two brigades a month..." now he says he will sit down and discuss it. With no difinate time table. That for one has frusterated me.
NAFTA was another point for me. Initially I was against globalization and free trade, and I believed Obama would be the guy to bring jobs back. Well, as I have been researching NAFTA for a paper I'm writing in Foreign Policy, I found Obama has no plan or policy in place about NAFTA. I don't like how vague he has become.
Universal healthcare... not my bag baby. I'll end this novel on that note :)
Bert Sobanik: There is more to a candidate than their campaign promises, remember first bush, "read my lips", but there were so many more, the promises are only binding until the election is won, then come the excuses, and the need to pay back the "big" contributors. Obama, in Flint said he would increase the size of the military!, and also that he would only remove "Combat" troops from Iraq. Please do not think that the Dem candidate is not getting corporate "bundles" the point is if you watch real close the two front runners are proposing near identical leadership, with only tiny shades of difference to thrill the electorate.
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Vincennes, Ind.: If people are tempted to vote -- again -- for the lesser of two evils, maybe they should stop worrying about how their vote might affect that horse race and use it to escape the "lesser evil" trap? It's simple. Find someone who hates your lesser evil, and agree to remove your votes from that horse race -- one from each candidate -- and cast them honestly for the third party or independent candidate you'd really like to see in office. Or show up and either cast a "blank" for the race, or write in anyone from Ron Paul to Homer Simpson (knowing your vote won't be counted) in order to increase the number of "none of the above" votes this year.
We don't have to keep puking over the results you get if enough of us just get off the merry-go-round!
This idea is explained in more detail at VoteBuddy.org and VotePact.org.
Comments?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I understand your point of view. I'm been listening to it for months now. And I agree with it. But I don't know the third party candidates, and after the year I've endured and had to learn about the "Repulocrats", as they are so often called, I do not have to time to brush up on the third party candidates. With the next election I will keep a closer eye on them though :)
I have considered this year my learning curve.
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Orlando Fla.: Hi Bert, hi Lizz. In 2000, Ralph Nader split the Democratic vote and perhaps cost the Democrats the White House. His rationale was that this would cause an upswing in left wing activism -- even if it hurt the Democratic party. What results do you hope to achieve from your support of third party candidates?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I've chosen not to support a third party candidate...so I will just let Bert have this one ;)
Bert Sobanik: The problem here is not that Nader took to many votes,it is that he did not get enough to win. Heck if your candidate cannot win the election without the votes of another voter's candidate maybe they need to strengthen their platform instead of blaming someone else.
Ross Perot did not screw up Geo H Bushes election in favor of Clinton, he simply did not get enough to win himself (he got mine and won several counties here in Maine)!
If any candidate is so weak that they cannot stand out in a larger field than just "us or them" then they do not deserve the office. This election will see more third party voters than ever, increasing the chance that issue sensitive elections may occur sometime soon.
Just because their are voters who cannot see beyond two candidates (that are largely shoved down their throats) does not make me feel that I have to vote for Red or Blue.
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Q and A: Q: How do you know when you've become an "inside the Beltway" type? A: When you type phrases like " I just don't see $150-$250 K as being... rich."
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I have a few questions lined up similar to this one. Let me try to clarify...
People that are making this amount of money are well off. I'm not saying there not. They are also people that get up every day, go to work, work hard, work harder, don't get government aid, pay for everything they own (even though they probably credit some) and created that life for themself. They also pay for their children's college. I'm completely novice at this. So don't pick on me too much. I'm still learning. I'm not sure exact numbers, but I do know that lower income will recieve government aid all the want. So why should we tax people in the upper MIDDLE class to pay for everyone else? How does breaking even and working harder make it fair?
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New York: Is the race over? It seems like Obama is running away with it, but is that what the two of you have seen as well?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: No!! The race is not over until November 4th-5th. It's going to be an exciting week! More so, it's going to be an exciting four years! Who ever gets into office sit back and relax, it's going to be one hell of a show!
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Re: Graduated tax structure:"For starters, I think distribution of wealth is not the best idea. "
So you favor a flat tax?
And you can read about the tax plan on Obama's website. $250k for families, $200k for individuals.
Bert Sobanik: Mike Huckabee's platform of switching to a flat rate consumption tax, got my attention right away. Consumption tax would insure that those who are contributing the most to resource depletion and global warming pay the most taxes for doing so. It would also be much easier to administrate, freeing up hours and hours for people all over the country in early April. Also this would reward people who save to buy a home or send their children to college since saving money would not cause you to pay taxes on interest, or the earnings. Our current economic crisis did not come about because Americans are saving to much.
The IRS is a huge bureaucratic beast, specially managed so that big earners in our society do not pay the Taxes proportionate to the benefits that our society affords them.
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Reality, Tex.: You both should not vote. You have no grasp of any of the platforms, nor a grasp of reality. Study up a bit, find out what is important to you -- since the choices and postions are stark. So, if you are undecided, wait until 2012...do not vote now, you are of clueless.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: That's just rude, dude.
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New York, N.Y.: You guys have been around the country. How divided are we? Is the rift repairable?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I wouldn't even say we are divided. Yes, there are strong republican and strong democrats... but I think it's best to describe them as strong McCain supporters and strong Obama supporters. At the end of the day we are all American, and everywhere I've been I've gotten nothing but a deep sense of pride and honor for my country. If not from the candidates, from the American people. Not one time in this past year, or in my life for that matter, when I have been to a rally and heard our national anthem did I not get goose bumps. Love it. :)
Bert Sobanik: The country is nowhere near as divided as the candidates and the media portray it to be. The people who are polarized in party dogma are out there, however on the Purple States trail the more we learned (my observation) the more tolerant and understanding we became.
Everywhere I went I was able to talk to people who were different in race, gender, creed, political stripe, and profession without the feeling that they would hate me for holding my own beliefs.
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Dallas, Tex.: I think trying to pin down the candidates on the exact details of their plan is unrealistic. Neither candidate know the full scope of any one of these issues, and the process is sufficiently complicated and fluid that you need to adjust frequently. It's sort of like a job interview, no one really knows every single detail of the job they are interviewing for. That's why I would look at a more generalized view, to get a sense of the candidates philosophy, because the details are important but they can't be set in stone.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Agreed.
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Sedona, Ariz.: Ha! Liz, you are hilarious. It's a circus and you've been following the circus from town to town. Does it make you lose and gain respect for the state of American Politics?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Hehe. A complete circus. I particulary like the schedule of the rallies. Watching them come in like red carpet celebrities with "eye of the tiger" playing... that's the part where I slap my knee the whole time!
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Alrington, Va.: No matter who wins taxes will eventually rise. Someone has to pay for the bailout and the bill will come due sooner rather than later
Bert Sobanik: Truer words have not been said, the "bail-out" is actually more of a "keep it going just a little longer". There have been no fundamental changes in our financial system to modify the basic causes of the problem. Never once did I hear a call to repeal any of the bad legislation that led to this mess.
Just more monkeying around with the once good system that we gave up in the name of "De-Regulation" and "fair mortgage practices" all which were written by the finance industries themselves.
_______________________
How does breaking even and working harder make it fair?: Earth to Elizabeth: Life's not fair. Get over it.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I believe in personal responsibility. At the end of the day my actions were my choices. I have no one to blame but myself. Then you would say, that having things unfair are OK. That's perfectly fine. Enjoy your matrix.
_______________________
Vincennes, Ind.: Any voter in a "safe" red or blue state who hates the Demolican status quo has no reason to vote for either Obama or McCain. After all, if Obama, say, is going to win your state, he doesn't need your vote -- and your vote won't help McCain. So why not take the opportunity to use your vote to indicate exactly what direction you want the country to move in, by picking the minor candidate closest to your views?
Bert Sobanik: WOW, that is a new spin on don't waste your vote, and as much as I like it I still feel like I want to vote for the Candidate that I would like to see in the presidency regardless of the long shot. The way I look at it is if I can ignore the polls, the media bombardment and the hoards of well or not so well wishers, so could every one else!
I will vote libertarian, and maybe enough disgusted US citizens will do the same that we get some action going!
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: This is my third presidential election cycle I will vote in and I am appalled at how the media has tripped over itself in building up Obama. For the first time in my life I am NOT proud of this Country for allowing BIG MEDIA to exert so much control over national policy
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: This I can identify with. The agenda setting can be aggrevating sometimes. I have found the Obama supporters to much louder and have larger masses. When I am having conversations with people in my neck of the woods about Obama and McCain, however, the Obama supporters have lacked the knowledge of his policies opposed to those of McCain's. This isn't speaking for everyone, everywhere though.
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"So don't pick on me": You're in The Washington Post, reporting on Politics! You signed up to get picked on.
That said, I think you're doing well and I hope to read more of you in the future.
Boston, Mass.
Bert Sobanik: Yo Boston, we are "off the streeters" just getting our fifteen minutes of fame. Pick if you must, but also try to identify the lack of polish as being the genuine reactions of people new to this game, and the media is definitely part of the "game" in politics.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: ya take that!
_______________________
Princeton, N.J.: I am 70 years old and I can tell you that you can live very well on 100k a year in a very expensive place. If 200k is not rich, it is certainly very well-to-do. Look, the overall US tax rate is 26.1 percent and Sweden's is 50.1 percent. Not only did Sweden have higher per capita GDP growth, but their people get high quality health care, free education including college and they live longer and are happier. Low taxes are always good; high taxes are not always bad.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: The US situation is nothing like Sweden's. We are multicultural and they are not. They are starting to be and their system is starting to break down. We should be proud of what we have here and continue to support the constitution and what it says.
_______________________
"Universal health care": Have you actually read what Obama is proposing for health care? We are not talking about universal health care. What he wants is that anyone who wants health insurance can get it for a reasonable price, even if they have pre-existing conditions. He's not forcing anyone to have any particular type of insurance, except if you have kids - then they have to be insured. But this is very different from what Canada and many European countries have, which actually is universal health care.
Bert Sobanik: The way I see it is the Health Care Insurance industry in this nation is so huge and profitable that it cannot be changed even regulated by an act of congress. The figures I keep getting show that somewhere between 35-50% of the money spent on health care goes for the administration of health care. Claims processing, profits, actuaries, appeals, malpractice insurance, up to half the cash is going to profits and paper work! It would take a true giant among men to be able to push that big money grabbin' operation back into what was once a non-profit "mutual' industry. Another poster child for "de-regulation".
_______________________
Go ahead: Liz,
By now we all know who you will vote for, so just go ahead and vote for him. Whether he wins or not you won't feel as bad as you would for voting for the other guy. You don't have to prove anything to anyone. Being undecided at this point is a joke. You are leaning towards one side, and making one million (not under) is rich to you, vote your conscious/wallet. Maybe you just might get that guy in office who will continue giving you the tax credit or cut you are looking for, after all you have worked so hard to earn yours, and you should keep it, forget everyone else.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: No, not forget everyone else at all. Personal responsibility. I would not consider someone at this point foolish for being undecided. I've spent this entire year learning and absorbing. There's a lot out there. Taking everything in has been quite overwhelming. This entire experience has been quite overwhelming. In the greatest sense.
_______________________
Dallas, Tex.: Obama has been consistent on his tax plan -- he says it two ways though. No tax increases under K$250 $250K and tax cuts under K$200. $200.K Really there will be tax cuts under K$200, $200,K K$200 to K$250 $250K will be the same.
Both candidates have two different economic plans, bottom-up OR top-down. Neither is particularly new or earth shattering. We had a structure similar to Obama's plan in the Clinton years and a structure similar to Bush's plan in the Bush years. History can tell us a lot in thins respect.
Bert Sobanik: The Clinton years economy was in large part due to Alan Greenspan's "overheating" the economy with excessively low interest rates (see the results?) and also that was before we had the Clinton double whammy of "NAFTA" and "permanent most favored nation trade status for China" these two pieces of bad trade legislation make it highly unlikely that either candidate can bring back the "good old days" of American Manufacturing glory.
_______________________
Los Angeles, Calif.: Are you decided on who to vote for? Who? How long have you known? When did you know? How did you come to that decision? How confident are you that you are making the right decision? Thanks.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I am finally a decided voter. Ah! You asked the golden question I am so hesitant to respond to! I've known, and danced on egg shells, for a few days, really. I was doing an international interview with CNN, and I kind of showed my true colors. HA! Confident? No way. Uncomfortable to the max. But I don't see it being any other way.
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Alexandria, Va.: I think people look at tax breaks in too much of black and white terms. Many people graduate from college, make far less than even 150K, are saddled with student loans and find that they are paying more in taxes then those who make more money but can afford to pay accountants to do their taxes thus finding them all the loopholes the rest of us know nothing about.
That is maddening.
It is not just "lazy" people who are benefiting, it's new grads, those who would prefer to work in non profits but can't afford to due to health care costs and tax rates, families who can't afford the day care to have more than one parent work, and all those who don't live in the cities where it is very rare to see anyone make 150-250K.
Bert Sobanik: The lack of health care coverage in this country stifles innovation and small business growth. I worked with people who were dying to open their own business, but "I would lose the family health plan" also I worked with people who had great ideas for new innovation but had to stay with "the old grind" just because they could not afford heath care insurance if they pursued new opportunities. Meanwhile we provide health care to people in prison. This one makes my head hurt. All the other industrialized trading partners subsidize their manufacturing base by providing health care, look at our manufacturing base lately?
_______________________
I don't see us holding our position of having the best medical practice in the world if we don't have restrictions on it. : WHO ranks the U.S. 37th in health care -- above Slovenia, but below Costa Rica. If you rank the U.S. and the 12 other wealthiest developed countries according to the 16 basic public health statistics (infany mortality, life expectency, etc.), we rank last or next to last in each category. Other wealthy countries get much better health care and they pay less than half of what we pay. The evidence is overwhelming.
Bert Sobanik: What? do you want to take the profit out of this huge cash cow just for the sake of dying babies and old folks that can not afford Med's? Sounds down right UN-American to me:)
_______________________
Black Mountain, N.C.: This is a question for Bert. If conservatives are red, and liberals are blue, what color are libertarians? (It's not a riddle -- I really want to know the answer.)
Bert Sobanik: White, from many years in the closet I guess.
_______________________
Loving the spins: Bert,
If the Clinton years gave us these bad times, what will the 'W'(Bush) years give us?
Bert Sobanik: The Apocalypse most likely, these guys have subjugated every possible freedom, and source of honest wealth that the generations before us ever held dear. We were to busy watching ESPN to feel how badly we were getting burned.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.: The Ronald Reagan earned income tax credit was a pure reditribution plan. This country, with the progressive tax HAS ALWAYS redistibuted wealth, that is what taxes do...sorry. Fact, the roads built, trains and infrastructure, public tranist etc., all support the COMMON good and not the selfish slug who wants to sit in a tower and horde what is mine.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: So should everyone recieve equal pay? I don't consider earning hording.
_______________________
We had a structure similar to Obama's plan in the Clinton years and a structure similar to Bush's plan in the Bush years.: We also had a tax picture similar to Obama's in the period 1946 - 73. Was the prosperity then due to Greenspan?
Bert Sobanik: Greenspan's low interest rates urged on the risk takers and "venture capitalists" to do take overs, introduce marketing schemes and generally persuade a large potion of the public that being in debt is a "natural" state of being for Americans.
The wealth that was drawn against peoples homes, along with credit card debt went almost entirely overseas for imported autos, electronics, clothing, footwear, and expensive doo dads of all nature.
Debt is not the answer, debt is the problem.
Low interst rates, made artificially low by the federal reserve punish savers and reward borrowers, who is going to blame the savers for the current problem?
_______________________
Ellicott City, Md.: A strong argument (to me at least) for a two party system is that when it comes down to it, voters have to choose one or the other. Neither candidate will be perfect, but one will be chosen over the other. How hard is it to govern if you win an election with 30 percent of the vote? Additionally, a candidate who gets 50 plus percentage of the vote would be more open to compromise with the other side than someone who can win by stirring up 30% support from "true believers".
Runoffs would alleviate this while complicating elections, but I think the final vote needs to come down to two candidates.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I can't say that I agree that the vote SHOULD come down to two candidates, but it does. For that reason, among others, I will be voting for one of them.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Do you think the Republican Party is going to last after this election? I'm predicting a major split.
Bert Sobanik: Any time a party loses the House and two years later the Executive I would expect that there will be a shake up.
I went to the Maine GOP convention this year and the Ron Paul supporters (who made up the majority of the under 55 crowd) in spite of a large, noisy showing were completely ignored by the party "leaders" at the podium, I was deeply disillusioned when I saw that this was not a bottom up process, but instead a top down arrangement where Ron Paul in spite of his popularity, could not even get his name mentioned from the podium.
The Republican party needs a darn good shaking in my opinion, they had six years of total dominance (2000-2006) and they returned nothing to the citizens, patriot act tax cuts for the wealthy and massive debt for everyone else, I hope they implode.
_______________________
Curious but . . . :"the Obama supporters have lacked the knowledge of his policies opposed to those of McCain's"
How would you be able to judge that without knowing what Obama's positions are yourself? You've pretty clearly indicated that in this chat. Perhaps McCain's supporters are spouting what they hear in the sound bites, which isn't necessarily the truth.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: I'm not trying to portray myself as onmiscient in any sense. A year ago I couldn't even name the candidates running. I will continue to learn, grow, and become politically saavy as I get older. I know the basics. I live on a college campus, and I can't say that for everyone. That was my point.
_______________________
Ann Arbor, Mich.: The Republicans have been in charge of the Legistlative branch for 12 of the past 14 years. The Republicans have been in charge of the Executive branch for the past 8 years. Wow. Don't you think its obviously time for a change?
Bert Sobanik: It is time for a change that was what the Dems promise us. That is also what "Dubya" promised at the end of the Clinton mess.
I want change that is not just more of the same old stuff by the other party. They both nurse on the same big money PAC's niether one is able to break free.
_______________________
Obama's tax breaks:K$200 is the magic number for individuals; K$250 $250K for families, I believe.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: When is successful too successful?
_______________________
What?: You spoke to Kerry and he so upset you that you now wish you had supported Bush in 2004? Did he leave a crappy tip or something? Have you had a check-up?
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Oh no... I never said I would vote for Bush! I would not vote for Bush. I just think we feel we have an insane election now, but I wasn't as aware then as I am now. I would have been really flustered in the last election if I didn't vote just to vote.
_______________________
Princeton, N.J.: Your theory that low interest rates in the '90s caused later problems would be good except for the fact interest rates were not low under Clinton. Thirty-year fixed rates ranged between 6 percent and 8 percent from 1992 to 2000, and were much lower later. Look it up.
Bert Sobanik: How about my theory that "permanent most favored nation trade status for China" blew our most basic wealth generator, Manufacturing, of shore?
By the way I did not state interest rates in absolute numbers but only in direction, Grenspam lowered the rates while the economy did not indicate necessity of it, thus the dependency of Wall st. on "cheap money".
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: What's up with Arizona turning pink? Why is McCain having to run robocalls in his own state?
Bert Sobanik: If I recall, Gore did not take Tenn. in the primaries. It all probably has to do with the fact that most politicians with any time in have a certain amount of "bagage" that is most apparent to those who know them best, the people of their state.
_______________________
For Dallas: Obama's K$250 $250K is for joint filers; K$200 $200K is for single filers.
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: That helps clear some things up for me. I will have to go check it out for myself now... that's one big thing I learned. Check your sources.
Bert Sobanik: I never made half that much, even when I worked eighty hours a week, I would say that in order to make that much this nation is giving you some sweet deal and you should be paying a good amount of taxes to the good of the state, next thing is, the Government should spend no more than it takes in, last year we paid $430 billion in interest on the debt, this year will be a lot more, more than we spend on the war even. I say if you don't like the taxes cut the spending, don't up the borrowing.
_______________________
Elizabeth Gotsdiner: Thanks everyone! Have a great day!
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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October 30, 2008 Thursday 1:24 PM EST
McCain Delivers Remarks in Defiance, Ohio
BYLINE: CQ Transcripts Wire, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 2215 words
HIGHLIGHT: REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE JOHN MCCAIN: I need your energy. I need your enthusiasm.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE JOHN MCCAIN: I need your energy. I need your enthusiasm.
And, my friends, I know history. I know the last time anyone was elected president of the United States without carrying the state of Ohio was John F. Kennedy. My friends, we're going to carry Ohio, and we're going to win the presidency, and we need you out there working every single moment for the next five days.
(APPLAUSE)
We need a new direction, and we have to fight for it, my friends. And I've been fighting for this country since I was 17 years old, and I have the scars to prove it.
(APPLAUSE)
And there's others who have been fighting for this country in this group of people and great Americans who are here today. And I'd like to ask them to raise their hands. Thank you for your service to our country, our veterans. Thank you so much. Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you. My friends, if I'm elected president, I will fight to shake up Washington and take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last. I'm not afraid of the fight; I'm ready for the fight.
(APPLAUSE)
I have a plan to hold the line on taxes and cut them to make America more competitive and create jobs here at home. We're going to double the child deduction for working families. We'll cut the capital gains tax. We'll cut business taxes to help create jobs and keep American businesses in America.
(APPLAUSE)
We have a clear difference, Senator Obama and I do. He wants to raise your taxes. Raising taxes makes a bad economy much worse.
Look at history. Keeping taxes low creates jobs, keeps money in your hands, and strengthens our economy. If I'm elected president, I won't spend nearly $1 trillion more of your money. Senator Obama will, and he can't do that...
(BOOING)
MCCAIN: And he can't do that without raising your taxes or digging us further into debt. I'm going to make government live on a budget, just like you do.
(APPLAUSE)
I'll freeze government spending on all but the most important programs, like defense, veterans care, Social Security, and health care, until we scrub every single government program, get rid of the ones that aren't working for the American people.
And, my friends, I will veto every single pork-barrel earmark bill that comes across my desk. I will make them famous, and you will know their names.
(APPLAUSE)
No more. No more pork, my friends. No more bridges to nowhere. No more DNA -- $3 million to steady the DNA of bears in Montana. I don't know if that was a criminal issue or a paternity issue, but we're not doing it anymore.
(APPLAUSE)
I'm not going to spend $750 billion of your money just bailing out the Wall Street bankers and brokers who've got us into this mess. Senator Obama will.
I'm going to make sure we take care of the working people who were devastated and are being devastated by the excesses and greed and corruption of Wall Street and Washington.
I'm a reformer. I've fought for reform. Senator Obama has never taken on the leaders of his party on any major issue, and that's a matter of rhetoric -- a matter of record and not of rhetoric.
My friends, I have a plan to fix our housing market so that your home value doesn't go down when your neighbor defaults and so that the people in danger of defaulting have a path to pay off their loan.
That's the American dream. We've got to buy up these bad mortgages, and keep people in their homes, and give them an affordable mortgage. That's the American dream, staying in one's home. That's my first priority for the American people. (APPLAUSE)
If I'm elected president, we're going to stop sending $700 billion a year to pay for oil from countries that don't like us very much.
(APPLAUSE)
Now, my friends, the other night in the debate that I -- last debate I had with Senator Obama, I -- I recognized his eloquence. I appreciate it. But you've got to pay attention to the words.
Remember when we started talking about drilling off-shore? He said he would, quote, "consider" drilling -- we're going to drill off- shore and we're going to drill now. When I'm president, we're going to do it now.
(APPLAUSE)
And -- and we're going to build nuclear power plants, and we can create 700,000 new jobs by building 45 new nuclear power plants. There are some Navy veterans in this crowd who will tell you, we've sailed ships around the world with nuclear power plants on them and it's safe. Senator Obama won't do that.
And, my friends, we will use clean-coal technology. Clean-coal technology will restore the economy of this part of the country. The United States of America sits on the world's largest coal reserves. Clean-coal technology will do it. Today...
(APPLAUSE)
Today, ExxonMobil reported record profits. Senator Obama voted for billions in corporate giveaways to the oil companies; I voted against it.
When I'm president, we're not going to let that happen. As I said, we're going to invest in all energy alternatives, nuclear, wind, solar, tide. We'll encourage the manufacture of hybrid, flex-fuel, and electric automobiles.
And we will restore the automobile industry in America to its pre-eminent position. We must do that for the future of our children and our grandchildren.
And we will lower the cost of energy within months, and we'll create millions of new jobs in America and get this economy out of the ditch.
(APPLAUSE)
You know, we've learned more -- we've learned more about Senator Obama's real goals for our country over the last two weeks than we learned over the last two years. And that's only because Joe the plumber asked him the right question right here in Ohio.
(APPLAUSE)
That's when Senator Obama revealed he wants to, quote, "spread the wealth around," spread your income around.
Joe's with us today. Joe, where are you? Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today? Joe, I thought you were here today.
All right. Well, you're all Joe the plumber, so all of you stand up and say -- and I thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
You know, I -- I saw Joe on television this morning. He did a great job. And whatever -- wherever you are, Joe, let's give him a round of applause for what he's done for America.
(APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: Now, Joe didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to this house, and he certainly didn't ask to be famous, and he most certainly didn't ask for the political attacks on him from the Obama campaign. And they're investigating everything about him.
What's that all about? What's that about?
(BOOING)
Joe's dream is your dream, to own a small business that will create jobs. And the attacks on him are an attack on small businesses all over this nation. Small businesses employ 84 percent of Americans, and we need to support these small businesses.
Taxing small businesses will kill jobs. We can't let that happen. After...
(APPLAUSE)
So we finally learned what Senator Obama's goals are, and to spread the wealth. In a radio interview revealed this week, he said the same thing, that one of the, quote, "tragedies" of the civil rights movement is that it didn't bring about redistributive change.
You see, Senator Obama believes in redistributing wealth and income, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs. He said that, even though lower taxes on investment help our economy, he favors higher taxes on investment for, quote, "fairness."
There's nothing fair about driving our economy into the ground. We all suffer when that happens, and that's the problem with Senator Obama's approach to our economy. He's more interested in controlling wealth than creating it and redistributing wealth instead of spreading opportunity.
I'm going to create wealth for all Americans by creating opportunity for all Americans.
(APPLAUSE)
Senator Obama is running to be redistributionist-in-chief. I'm running to be commander-in-chief.
(APPLAUSE) Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama is running to punish the successful. I'm running to make everyone successful.
(APPLAUSE)
You know, he and Senator Biden made a lot of promises. First, he said people making less than $250,000 would benefit from his plan. Then this weekend, he announced in an ad that, if you're a family making less than $200,000, you'll benefit.
But this week, Senator Obama said tax relief should go only to middle-class people, people making under $150,000 a year.
See where we're headed, my friends? It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won't be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just $42,000 a year should get a tax increase.
We can't let that happen. We can't let that happen to America.
(APPLAUSE)
This Democratic Congress -- this -- this Reid-Pelosi group of liberals, including Congressman Barney Frank, is planning all sorts of new taxes this week. This week, we're hearing they want to tax your 401(k) contributions.
(BOOING)
This is a time when we need to be encouraging more investing, not taxing it. We can't let them get away with making a bad economy even worse. Now's the time to grow our economy, and that's what I'm going to do.
(APPLAUSE)
My friends, my opponent's massive new tax increase is exactly the wrong approach in an economic slowdown. The answer to a slowing economy isn't higher taxes, but that's exactly what's going to happen when the Democrats have total control of Washington.
We can't let that happen. We need pro-growth and pro-jobs economic policies, not pro-government spending programs paid for with higher taxes.
This is the fundamental difference between Senator Obama and me. We both disagree with President Bush on economic policy. The difference is he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high.
(APPLAUSE)
If we're going to change Washington, we need a president who has actually fought for change and made it happen.
MCCAIN: The next president won't have time to get used to the office.
We face many challenges here at home and many enemies abroad in this dangerous world. You know, just the other day, Senator Biden warned that Senator Obama would be tested with an international crisis. I have been tested; Senator Obama has not.
(APPLAUSE)
Senator -- Senator Biden referred to how Jack Kennedy was tested in the Cuban missile crisis, and I have a little personal experience in that. I was on board the USS Enterprise, sat in a cockpit on the flight deck, waiting to take off.
I had a target. I know how close we came to a nuclear war, and I will not be a president who needs to be tested.
(APPLAUSE)
We know Senator Obama won't have the right response to that test, because we've seen the wrong response from him over and over during this campaign. He opposed the surge strategy that's bringing us victory in Iraq and will bring us victory in Afghanistan.
He said he would sit down unconditionally with the world's worst dictators.
(BOOING)
When Russia invaded Georgia, Senator Obama said the invaded country should show restraint. He's been wrong on all of these. When I am president, we're going to win in Iraq, win in Afghanistan, and our troops will come home in victory and honor, not in defeat.
(APPLAUSE)
So let me give you the state of the race today, my friends. There's less than a week to go, five days. The pundits have written us off, just like they've done several times before.
My opponent is working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid of their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq.
(BOOING) He's measuring the drapes, and he gave his first address to the nation before the election. We're a few -- just never mind. We're a few points down, but we're coming back. Last night...
(APPLAUSE)
Last night, Senator Obama said that, if he lost, he would return to the Senate and try again in four years with a second act. That sounds like a great idea to me. Let's help him make it happen.
(APPLAUSE)
My friends, I know you're worried. America's a great country, but we're at a moment of national crisis that will determine our future.
I want to ask you this: Will we continue to lead the world's economies or will we be overtaken? Will the world become safer or more dangerous? Will our military remain the strongest in the world? Will our children and grandchildren's future be brighter than ours?
My answer to you is yes. Yes, we will lead. Yes, we will prosper. Yes, we will be safer. Yes, we will pass on to our children a stronger, better country.
(APPLAUSE)
But we must be prepared to act swiftly, boldly, with courage and wisdom. I am an American, and I choose to fight.
Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage and fight. Fight for a new direction for our economy. Fight for what's right for America. Fight to clean up the massive corruption, in-fighting, and selfishness in Washington.
Fight to get our economy out of the ditch and back in the lead. Fight for the ideals and character of a free people. Fight for our children's future. Fight for justice and opportunity for all. Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.
Stand up. Stand up and fight. America is worth fighting for.
(APPLAUSE)
Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history; we make history.
Now, let's go win this election and get our country moving again. Thank you, and God bless. Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
END
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82 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 30, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
Potomac Confidential;
Washington's Hour of Talk Power
BYLINE: Marc Fisher, Post Metro Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 8125 words
HIGHLIGHT: Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Today's Column: What's Real About the Split In Virginia
Fisher was online Thursday, Oct. 30, at Noon ET to invite voters to make their last-ditch pitches for their favorite candidates and examines the state of play and the prospects for smoothvoting in Virginia, Maryland and the District.
A transcript follows.
Check out Marc's blog, Raw Fisher.
In his weekly show, Fisher veers wildly from serious probing to silly prattle, and is open to topics local, national, personal and more.
Archives: Discussion Transcripts
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Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, folks. I'm just back from the news conference announcing the 80-plus exhibits, concerts, and other events that will celebrate Abe Lincoln's 200th birthday in Washington early next year, and it was a refreshing respite from the barrage of sniping and barking email from and about the two presidential campaigns. Lincoln was of course not even close to the warm and cuddly uniter that he's become over the course of the past 140 years; he ran hard, tough campaigns and he drove a hard bargain as president. But the more you read of his work and the more you learn about how he operated, the more it is possible to have some hope about blending the good rough and tumble of campaigns with a more searingly honest approach to the difficulties the country faces.
Something to look forward to: The Lincoln celebration will include a reenactment of the 1939 Marian Anderson concert at the Lincoln Memorial, with Denyce Graves playing Anderson's role; a collection of Lincoln's writings at the Library of Congress; and a display of items related to his last hours and the physicians who tended to him, at the National Museum of Health and Medicine. Plus many, many more shows and events.
But more immediately, there's the vote. It grates at me to hear all the blowhards on TV and radio speaking in the past tense about this election, pretending that their beloved polls and the conventional wisdom add up to some sort of insider knowledge about how it's all going to turn out. They don't know, you don't know, I don't know. First, you have to play the game, no?
Which a great many people are doing early, which was the topic of my Sunday column, which somewhere between one and two percent of you agreed with. You like early voting and you see nothing wrong with changing the structure of our election system to make it more convenient. I do. We can discuss.
Today's column, on the "real Virginia" vs. "fake Virginia" divide, which has become such a big part of the presidential campaign in the Old Dominion, is creating lots of comment and we'll get into that.
Over on the blog, I have a contest going--see yesterday's post--on which upsets are most likely to occur in Tuesday's voting. Please add your voice and your prediction. Winners will get prizes from the Vast Vat of Values.
On Election Night, I invite you to join me here on the big web site for a special edition of this here chat as we get into the Virginia presidential outcome and all the Maryland, Virginia and D.C. races.
For now, it's on to your many comments and questions, but first, let's call the Yay and Nay of the Day:
Yay to Virginia and Maryland for deciding to return to paper ballots after this election. As The Post's Chris Davenport reports this morning, the popular unhappiness with the various experiments in electronic voting technology, as well as some very unfortunate experiences with breakdowns, are compelling many states to revert to good old paper--the optical character reader technology that worked perfectly well for decades. The state elections officials tend to love the touch-screen new tech stuff, but they're often in the pockets of the industry sales folk who hawk those systems to the states. Voting is about trust, and while most of us love web technology, we tend to trust paper more. That's true whether we're talking about financial and legal documents, or journalism, or voting technology. It may change someday, but not yet.
Nay to the District's public schools and other big city systems around the country that have glommed on to the crass and ultimately destructive practice of paying children to go to school and to get decent grades. The evidence is piling up showing that this experiment is potentially dangerous, as those for whom payments (read: bribes) cease seem to lose interest in learning and achieving. It's time to stop this experiment on our children before an entire generation is subjected to this desperate and cynical tactic.
Your turn starts right now....
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washingtonpost.com: Paper Ballot Has Md.'s, Va.'s Vote ( Post, Oct. 30)
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washingtonpost.com: In Early Voting Trend, Democracy Is the Biggest Loser ( Post, Oct. 26)
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Silver Spring, Md.: Writing this before your chat so I don't know what your yay and nay of the day is yet, but I really hope the big NAY is for Maryland getting rid of electronic voting. For the last few years I've laughed at other states fumbling with paper ballots as our system is incredibly simple to work. For me, it is worth every penny because it's so easy, almost fool proof. With paper ballots we're going to see massive problems in the elections ahead. This is a real shame, not to mention a waste of millions since according to the Post article MD is ending the electronic voting a few years early but will still have to pay for them for 2 or 3 years more. Common sense has truly gone out the window.
Marc Fisher: Sorry, but that's my Yay, not my Nay.
Voting is about trust--despite all the handwringing about security and verification, we still pretty much allow anyone to come on in and vote, without any real check on who they are. So the voting system has to be one that people trust. And as in so many other aspects of life, we're totally fascinated and in love with new technologies, but when it comes to matters of deep trust, we still revert to paper. That's true of legal documents and financial papers, it's true in our reading habits and the credibility we give to various kinds of journalism, and it's true in voting.
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Early voting: Marc, Marc, Marc. Really?
I voted early in Virginia about a week ago. It was a Saturday. There were five or six people in line in front of me, and another five or six came in behind me while I waited. It was more than I ever saw on Election Day in my polling place in the small Pennsylvania town I grew up in. So, there's your community.
But even if I had voted alone, I would gladly give up the sense of community I got if it made it easier for someone else to vote on Election Day. Maybe you've got two hours to kill on a Tuesday, but it's not that easy for everyone. By voting early, I help make the lines shorter on Election Day. It drives me mad that people could possibly argue that this is a bad thing.
Marc Fisher: I'm sure voting early is indeed much easier, and especially in this unusual year, it can very much be a social experience. But that's not normally the case. More important, by voting early, you are essentially taking part in a different election. If something big happens to change the dynamic of a campaign in its final two weeks, you will have voted in a very different election from your neighbors who vote on Election Day.
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Bethesda, Md.: When you're wrong, you're REALLY wrong -- and you went way off track with your column on Early Voting. It may be nice to say that the inconvenience of taking time off from work isn't that big a deal, and to wax eloquently about the common experience of voting as a community on the same day, in the same place; but for many people, it just doesn't work out that way.
Anything that encourages people to vote, that makes it possible for more people to participate, is a Good Thing. We've had far too many instances of voter suppression tactics in recent years as is. If Early Voting makes it possible for even 5-10 percent of the population to vote when they otherwise might not, we should embrace and celebrate it.
Reports now say that in states with Early Voting, as many as a third will cast their ballots early this year in what promises to be a record turnout. Not only will that help relieve the congestion at the polls for those who do show up on November 4th, but many of them might not have the opportunity otherwise.
I'll be casting my vote for Maryland to join the Early Voting states, and look forward to voting in 2010 at MY convenience, not yours.
Marc Fisher: If early voting really increased turnout, I'd feel compelled to give it a hard second look. But it doesn't. Don't believe me on that--check the academic research yourself. Even those researchers who really pushed hard for early voting as a reform that would boost turnout have concluded that it does no such thing.
See, the core reason why people vote is so that they can be seen voting--by family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, whomever. Those "I Voted" stickers have huge, powerful social importance. Put the whole process into a black box--make it by mail or in secluded early voting centers--and the whole psychological foundation of the act starts to crumble.
That said, this election is something of an anomoly--you're seeing huge early voting, a result of Obama's unique appeal to young people and blacks, many of whom don't ordinarily vote.
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Independent in Maryland: You quoted someone in your column: "I don't see how any person who believes in Jesus Christ could vote for Obama or any Democrat." This is one of my biggest issues with today's Republican Party. I was raised in a very conservative state. My father campaigned for George Wallace and Richard Nixon. I agree with several of the old Republican party ideals, like fiscal conservatism. But when Jerry Falwell and his gang of thugs began forcing the idea that God was a socially conservative Republican, the party lost me. There are as many faithful Christians who don't buy into that crap -- they're just not as obnoxiously vocal about it. I was raised religious, but I was also raised to understand that there are many religions in the worlds and I should be respectful of others' beliefs. This country was founded on freedom of religion, and a separation of church and state. Keep your religion out of my politics!
Marc Fisher: I think your view is one that is quite common, though it tends not to get a lot of TV time or ink because it's so, um, non-inflammatory.
At the Palin rally this week, some people carried signs that said "Keep America Jesusful--Palin for President." But there was a real difference in the crowd at this Palin rally as compared to the one in September in Fairfax--at that one, there was a real mix of people, both strong conservatives from the home-schooling, stay-at-home-mother, church-driven political activism crowd as well as traditional fiscal conservatives and even good old Republican moderates. But this time, it was that first crowd that totally dominated. The moderates and independents were gone. That may say something about Virginia's direction next week.
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Arlington, Fake Va. : Great column, Marc. One question, though: Do you think the split in Virginia is not a physical boundary, but rather a state of mind? I'd argue that there are places in the "real" Virginia that are "fake" because of the population. Take Charlottesville with UVA students, grads and profs. On the other, Arlington also has a lot of military personnel with the Pentagon and such, thus making it more "real."
washingtonpost.com: What's Real About the Split In Virginia ( Post, Oct. 30)
Marc Fisher: Absolutely--there are plenty of pockets, some of them quite large, all around the state where people get plenty riled up if they are lumped into the big category of "real" Virginians who trumpet their conservative social values. Whether it's college towns such as Lexington and Williamsburg or crunchy portions of Abingdon and Roanoke or urbane areas of Richmond or Hampton Roads, there are lots of places that identify culturally more with Arlington and Alexandria than with the rural Southwest or Prince William or Stafford.
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Arlington, Va.: Just to give you some perspective on the real/fake dichotomy, it didn't start with modern political spinsters. I am a history Ph.D. with a specialty in nationalism. Most modern European national identities were scripted in the 19th century by urban intellectuals who harbored illusions that the "real" Germans, French, Italians, et cetera, ad nauseum, were the peasants who worked the soil. Just about every American of European descent who ever had to wear "traditional" costume to some ethnic festival is dressing in the way these urban intellectuals fantasized that "their" peasants actually dressed. More times than not, when flash points caused populations to show their colors, so to speak, peasants showed little interest in fighting for the nations that they supposedly emblemized.
Marc Fisher: Thanks--good point. And we see that same eagerness to assimilate and to move on from the old values shot through our own popular culture--think of Barry Levinson's "Avalon" and other movies that portray our intense desire to get beyond the hangups and awkwardnesses of the immigrant generation. Or look at second-generation Miami Cubans and their loosening ties to the anti-Castro outlook of their parents.
But there are still those who, many generations later, find rich rewards in keeping up those traditions, and the southern identity is one that has outlasted most ethnic identities.
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Alexandria, FVA (Fake Virginia): Here is my metric for determining whether a citizen of the commonwealth lives in Real of Fake Virginia:
If your county gets back less than all the money it sends to Richmond in taxes, you live in Fake Virginia. If your county gets back more, you live in Real Virginia.
Real Virginians need to stop whining.
Marc Fisher: Folks who fancy themselves real Virginians do have one major advantage over northern Virginians--their sense of identity compels them to pay more attention to state government and so their voices tend to be heard more in Richmond. Northern Virginians, who, by and large, tend to face toward Washington often lose out because politicians correctly perceive that those voters don't pay a whole lot of attention to what happens at the state level.
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St. Paul, Minn. (raised in Annandale, Va.): Marc,
I applaud you for your article on the odd divide that is "real" Virginia from "fake" Virginia. As a native of the state who always loves going home to see friends and family, it was a good read.
After leaving home I used to tell people I was from "Washington, D.C.," I guess to hide my VIRGINIA roots.
Over time, I realized this was silly and I loved the state I was raised in (and not just the northern part by any means) and started to say "I'm from a town in Virginia called Annandale." Which certainly sounds more southern (perhaps even more "real Virginia?") than "I'm from D.C."
I'm not the only one I've known who has had this "I'm from DC/VA" issue in their lives. It's another little complicated issue for what is a VERY complicated issue in terms of "real"/"fake" Virginia.
To me Northern Virginia is unique in the weird way it represents some of the best AND worst elements of both southern and northern culture.
I think your article could have been twice it's length with the amount of intricacies in this "real"/"fake" Virginia debate.
Marc Fisher: We could easily devote this chat to the real/fake Virginia issue every week for a year and still not mine all of its levels of cultural meaning.
I've lived in Washington for nearly a quarter century and I'm still fascinated by the number of people I know who were born and grew up in places like Annandale, Chevy Chase, Fairfax City or even as far out as Clinton (Md) or Clifton (Va.) and yet who introduce themselves as being from...Washington.
I don't think that happens nearly as much in many other metro areas, and yet many of those Washington suburbs are far more distinctive than similarly distant suburbs of other cities.
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Leesburg, Va.: I'm just curious about something... all those people down in "real Virginia" - are you willing to live without the taxes paid by the "unreal" folks and businesses in Northern Virginia?
If they really feel that way, then let each county keep and spend its own taxes. We'll finally have the roads we need, and "real Virginia" will live in the tax-free squallor they want so much.
I'm really getting tired of being told I'm not "real" and I'm not "pro-America" just because I happen to be a Democrat.
Marc Fisher: That's the argument that northern Virginia legislators have been making for years, to little effect.
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Leesburg for Obama: I'm not sure that this will answer your question about the political dividing line, but this site, Strange Maps, has an entry about the sweet tea dividing line: Tea as a North/South Litmus Test
Maybe it's the same line. I've personally never developed a taste for iced tea of either persuasion, and I tend to be oblivious to most of the culture battles. Except one: In my 28 years living in this area (having moved here from Massachusetts), I have been happy to see the racial divide all but erased. I once might have been able to draw a North-South line for you, right through the middle of Manassas, but now only the remnants of a line remain, in far, far Southwest Virginia.
So, I do believe that Virginia will go for Obama.
Marc Fisher: I love that map and we've batted around that question here at various points over the past few years--but while I used to be a big believer in the Sweet Tea Line as a useful indicator of the cultural boundary, I'm afraid it is a less and less useful one, mainly because of the decline of locally owned eateries and the triumph of the faceless national chains.
Still, as my colleague Steve Hendrix has written, it's a valuable marker even now. If I didn't dislike sweetened tea so much, I'd take on the ultimate reporting boondoggle and head out to document the true tea boundary.
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Alexandria, Va.: Oops. I mean Fake, Va..
Real Virginia is everywhere there are people who wish the Confederacy had won The War Between The States.
Marc Fisher: These are all broadbrush portraits, of course--there are plenty of liberals and northerners in Hampton Roads and Richmond and all over the commonwealth, and plenty of folks who value southern traditions and conservative values in Fairfax and even in Arlington and Alexandria.
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Anonymous: Marc -- I hate the attitudes you found in today's piece. I hate this Us vs. Them, and nobody listens. Jesus doesn't get your roads fixed, money and political will does. Belief in the Old South doesn't fund your failing schools in "Real" Virginia -- property taxes and state funds do. I am under no illusions that there isn't this deafness on both sides, but I find the particular flavor delivered from the right to be so much less palatable.
My greatest hope for Obama is that, while not easy, at the end of four years, some of this can be put behind us. It is a stupefying request to make of any individual.
Marc Fisher: It is hard to imagine that any president could, at this stage in our rapid evolution to a frayed and disconnected media environment, achieve that kind of unity. The nastiness and the polarization we see in today's political rhetoric is to a pretty large extent a result of the loss of mass in our media. We have retreated into our own media cocoons, swimming in the same information as those who share our values and beliefs--and we have ever less cause to spend time with those who disagree. It will be awfully difficult for any president to bring together people who reside in wholly separate media environments.
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Germantown, Md.: It's probably too late for a contest but I wonder what your readers think is the over/under number for Obama's percentage of the vote in Maryland and the District. My guesses are 75 in Maryland and 89 in D.C.
Marc Fisher: The Maryland seems way too high and the D.C., believe it or not, too low. But others will disagree.
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Political humor: Lincoln, when he was running for president in 1860, wrote a humorous dialog between his two Democratic opponents, Douglas (anti-slavery) and Breckinridge (pro-slavery). He wouldn't have made it as a humor columnist today.
Lincoln: Speeches and Writings
Marc Fisher: I used to have a theory that the funnier candidate always loses, Bob Dole and Al Gore being strong arguments for my theory. But if the polls are right, my theory isn't going to work this time.
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Unreal, Va.: Marc, in 2004, President Bush won every one of the 16 states with the lowest percentage of college graduates. The state with the largest percent among those who voted for Bush was Virginia; largely because they're concentrated in the part that voted for Kerry.
Marc Fisher: Quite a few of you are drawing from today's column the idea that the divide in Virginia is the well-educated vs the less-educated, or the better informed vs. the ignorant. But I don't buy that. At the Palin rally, for example, I met one person after another who espoused views that many of you would find highly intolerant, yet who had clearly been reading deeply on this campaign and on many of the big issues. They knew details about the tax and health plans, they were up on the surge and the latest from Iraq. What was different was that they had segregated themselves by listening to and reading only material that reflected their world view. They're of course not remotely unique in this--the left does this too.
This is the new political reality. The people, for the most part, still live in the center--most people in this country can agree on many big issues. But increasingly their information sources are skewed way to the right or left, and that tends to pull them away from the political center.
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Arlington, Va.: Yet another anthropological foray into the wilds of northern Virginia so you can write a sad little column about the freaks in Hicksville!
Could you please re-enact the recent Howard Stern stunt, and go into DC neighborhoods asking Obama supporters about why they support their candidate, and when they say that it's because of the issues not his skin color, read them all of McCain's positions as they head-bob and amen their support?
That would be serious journalism compared to what we've been fed these last couple months.
Marc Fisher: I hadn't caught Stern's foray into political stunting, but I like the idea. Of course, it could well be argued that you could do that in any neighborhood of any political stripe, with equally startling results, because all rhetoric aside, the two major party candidates are really not that far apart on most issues.
Bailout? Both on the same side, both in opposition to most Americans.
Guns? Both on the same side, both ticking off a huge minority of the country.
Gay marriage, both on the same side, both ticking off a huge minority of the country.
Even on issues on which they ostensibly disagree, do they really? One supports abortion rights and the other doesn't, but as one Republican administration after another has demonstrated, there's stuff you say to get elected and then there's what you do in office, and the two often have nothing whatever to do with each other.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Based on your own statements in this chat, wouldn't it be fair to say that "real" Virginians are those you actually say "Virginia" when asked where they're from?
Marc Fisher: Great point! I love that.
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Fairfax County, Va. : So was the Palin rally in Leesburg another gathering of pretty much all white folks?
As for your column today, frankly it distresses me. I'm a proud Yankee transplant here. There are times when I would love nothing better than to "stick it" to RoVA, secede and take away their cash cow here in NoVA, and tell them they can have their Massive Resistance mindset and stay in the 19th century where they belong. But it doesn't feel any better in the long run, and it doesn't solve the common problems we have both in the state and as a country.
Ultimately, it may take the passing of generations and their accumulated mental poisons (on both sides) for mindsets and actions to change. We've been at each others' throats now for 40, 50+ years, and it won't go away overnight. I hope for better out of our kids.
Marc Fisher: Yes, the Palin rallies in Leesburg and Fredericksburg drew overwhelmingly, almost uniformly white audiences. This does not surprise you, does it? Despite a decade of effort by some Republicans to persuade their message-makers that the party must broaden its appeal, the illegal immigration issue pretty much froze or rolled back that effort.
I like your long-term view of the NoVa/RoVa issue. And you're absolutely right--time and migration will settle all this, eventually. But upstate/downstate divides are a mainstay of American politics--look at Illinois, New York, Florida....
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Omar: I grew up in Silver Spring (but was actually born and lived in D.C. for sometime) and when I got to college I always said I was from D.C. or the D.C. area because most people had no idea where Silver Spring was or they identified the whole Metro area as D.C. When I encountered people who were really familiar with the area I'd tell them I was from Silver Spring. I still do that as a matter fact. It just makes life easier.
Marc Fisher: Yes, easier, but what does it do to your own sense of where you are from? I'm not saying, just asking.
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Washington, D.C.: Any suggestions for D.C. organizations (of any political stripe) that are providing endorsements for local elections? Thanks.
Marc Fisher: There must be more than 50 organizations that do endorsements. Here's just a random sampling....
http://www.steindemocrats.org/date/news/
http://tenac.org/?q=node/76
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/02/AR2008090202444.html
http://www.dcexaminer.com/opinion/Changes_needed_on_DC_Council.html
http://www.dclabor.org/ht/d/ProgramDetails/i/245
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Marc Fisher: I used to have a theory that the funnier candidate always loses, Bob Dole and Al Gore being strong arguments for my theory. But if the polls are right, my theory isn't going to work this time. Has Obama ever been funny? Or, do you just think he has a better personality? Please explain.
Marc Fisher: I've never met Obama, so I have to take the word of my colleagues who have--and I also watched Obama on Jon Stewart's program last night. Conclusion: He appreciates humor, but he's not a terribly funny guy. He can deliver jokes very well--check out the YouTube vid of him at the Alfred Smith dinner in New York a couple of weeks ago. He's great with written material. But folks who know him say he's not a natural quipster.
Whereas McCain has a biting wit--not quite Dole's fabulously pejorative and self-deprecating wit, which made covering the '96 campaign a total joy, but still, very high up there among politicians. But of course McCain's delivery isn't nearly as polished as Obama's.
Dole and Gore are by far the funniest of presidential candidates in the past 30 years.
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Reston, Va. - Couldn't be FURTHER apart on guns: I would urge you to read their actual stances on issues like taxing the sale of guns or ammunition or banning concealed carry permits. These two candidates could not be further apart.
http://www.gunbanobama.com
Marc Fisher: Ok, but while I'm at it, check out the Jim Webb video about how Obama's big on guns:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRR5v5C0JLk
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Book Recommendation: Confederates in the Attic by Tony Horwitz is a fascinating look into the feelings of people in the South towards the Civil War. I believe the book may have been published 10 years ago but it is truly timely for this election. The book gives true insights into racial feelings and tensions in the South.
Marc Fisher: Great book--and yes, now is an excellent time to read (or re-read) it.
And in Sunday's column, I'll have a movie recommendation that, despite the flick being half a century old, I think you'll find is the most instructive and meaningful thing you can take in as you prepare for this election.
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Purcellville, Va.: There was an article a while back in the Post that asserted that Virginia, once the largest colony, lost its influence on the rest of the nation because of its anti-tax stand in reference to public education. The states that willfully funded public education in the early 1800s, like New York, grew dominant as Virginia's role diminished.
As a rural Southeast Virginian who moved to Northern Virginia 23 years ago, I think that's what still divides "real" Virginia from the rest of us: education. It's not New Yorkers moving here, it's that we have open minds due to our valuing education.
Marc Fisher: Yes, that was my column on Susan Dunn's book, "Dominion of Memories."
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/rawfisher/2007/10/the_long_corrosive_impact_of_v.html
But if that's the big divide in Virginia, how do you square that theory with the fact that the commonwealth has one of the better state university systems in the nation?
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Chicago, Ill.: Dewey Defeats Truman!
Yeah, Mark, I agree with you on that point. This election isn't over until the votes are counted, the winner named and the loser concedes.
But what I'm really going to miss is Tim Russert and his white board electoral tally.
Marc Fisher: I was never a member of the Russert cult--sweet guy, very smart guy, but I didn't get the idea that his election analysis was all that far out in front--but I do very much miss the idea that television could trust itself to present one or two well-researched and perceptive analyses, rather than the gaggle of shouting silly people that now pass for analysis. Anytime you're presented with a jury-sized panel of analysts, you know you're getting more noise and less meaning.
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Do real Virginians really believe fake Virginians are bad people?: I think one of the more disturbing trend shot just in your article, but in political discourse in general, is the very real sensation that people who have very different views see each other as not only wrong (which is fine) but as bad.
Even for people that I vehemently disagree with on issues like Iraq, the economy, abortion, etc., I don't think they are bad people. If they are kind, treat their fellow human beings with respect and compassion, and are responsible citizens I harbor no ill will towards them.
It seems though that we now not only disagree with each other, but we demonize each other as well. That is sad.
Marc Fisher: It is sad, but I'm not sure it's really true. Of course we see it on both edges of the political spectrum, but in that vast middle where most of us reside, I think most people look at the shouting and the disparaging of the other and say, What is wrong with these people?
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Washington, D.C.: Marc, I'm a bit late but the early voting issue. Until Election Day is a national holiday early voting makes it MORE fair.
When I worked at a machine shop prior to college outside Detroit, the guys working 12 hour shifts (7 a.m. - 7:30 p.m.) didn't get to vote on Election Day. They couldn't afford to lose the 3 hours of overtime come the end of the week. The white collar guys up front (engineer two owners and three salesmen who all most likely voted R) all took time out of their salaried day to go vote.
Just one perspective.
Marc Fisher: I'm with you on the national holiday idea, though it's important to make it mid-week so that it doesn't become one more three-day weekend on which people travel or shop rather than doing their civic duty.
Another reform I'd move to far quicker than early voting is 24-hour voting. One day, but not just 12 or 13 hours--open the polls for a full 24, and that way you eliminate all the whining and moaning about how people can't get to and from work and take care of their kid-shuttling obligations and still vote.
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Anonymous: I think the sweet tea map is more significant than we realize. One thing about the "real" south is they generally do not care what the other folks think at all, and y'all folks need to adapt to their way, not vice versa. I'm a native Washingtonian that lived over 15 years in the south post college before coming back home. I found that northern or more cosmopolitan folks generally were more compromising of self. I think your northern VA example is a case in point. NVA looks to DC, as in big picture issues that effect the whole, while so-called "real" VA simply looks out for itself via Richmond. this is the same scenario in ATL, Charlotte, and many other places in the south.
Marc Fisher: Generally, I think you're right, but I'd argue with one piece--southern identity is not, despite its bluster, a hugely confident one. As historians of the south from Cash to Vann Woodward and on to today have long pointed out, it is the very lack of confidence--the fear that better educated northerners might point out their backward ways--that has driven much of southern identity through the centuries.
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Chantilly, Va.: Just as an aside, because I'm not sure what it means, but the most prominent politician from "Real Va." is now Rep. Eric Cantor, who is the only Jewish Republican in the House.
When he did a chat on here I asked him how he could feel comfortable in the GOP caucus. Of course he parried the question, but he strikes me as what used to be known as a "House Jew" (no pun intended).
Marc Fisher: Just one more piece of evidence that the categories we're talking about are not impermeable and that while old prejudices do linger in some ways in some places, they are much more malleable now than at any other time in our history. Ask Doug Wilder about that.
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Arlingtonton Va.: When driving south on 95 towards Richmond I always have a laugh. The Welcome to Virginia Visitor Center is about halfway between the Potomac and Richmond. I always thought it reflected where the Virginia pols thought the border was. Northern Virgina was some quazi-D.C.-Not-quite-Virginia state.
Marc Fisher: I've never understood how that welcome center got put where it is. Surely there's a great story behind it. Or maybe it's as simple as the state not wanting to give out so many free maps as they'd have to if the center were located anywhere near the DC metro area.
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Metro Bag Searches: Marc: Since Metro has no interest in hearing from its customers, could someone at The Post please ask them why riders should believe that the Transit Police are capable of detecting explosive devices when they are INcapable of enforcing the no eating/no drinking rules; and have no intention of policing out of control teens?
Thanks.
washingtonpost.com: Metro to Randomly Search Riders' Bags ( Post, Oct. 28)
Marc Fisher: I wish this topic had come up some week other than the one before the election, because it deserves a whole lot of time and attention. Let's try to get deeper into this in two weeks, after we're done digesting Tuesday's results.
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Undecided, USA: Marc -- The presidential election is next week and I still am undecided. I don't have enough time to read all the position papers. Is there a Web site where I can answer a few questions and it will tell me which candidate I should vote for? Thanks
Marc Fisher: There are a zillion of them--there's even one right here on this web site. It asks you issue questions and you drill down and learn with whom you most agree.
I'll ask Rocci to find you a link...
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Washington, DC: Marc,
I am required by my job to attend a conference in Europe next week and I learned this in the middle of October. I would be disenfranchised, with your blessing, were it not for DC's early voting. You literally wrote a column encouraging those like us to be disenfranchised. That is a dangerous, dangerous thing sir, and you stepped into a weird political territory populated with Poll Taxers, literacy tests, and lonely conspiracy theorists.
What would you suggest to someone like me, who is assigned European Union work when the politicals in the office refused to travel? Just lose my right to vote?
Marc Fisher: Hardly. You're the classic absentee voter. Every state has absentee voting, and you can do it by mail or in person. Absentee voting requires a reason, which you have. Early voting is different--it requires no reason.
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Anywhere: OK, I am getting fed up with all of the ads and pundit-parsing of the candidates' tax plans. Here's a question I'd really like to see, maybe you can get the National desk to ask it: considering that Congress will dispose on any tax proposal from the President, where is the magic line on the lower limit of family income for raising taxes that would incur a veto? IOW, if the President proposes a $250k bright line and Congress comes back with $150k, will he sign the bill?
Marc Fisher: That's not a question that anyone can answer during a campaign. Only the crucible of the legislative process can force a true answer to that. And that's where your judgment of the character of the candidates comes into play--who will negotiate hard and fair, who knows when to bend, those kinds of questions.
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Laurel, Md.: I have to take issue with your comment "the commonwealth has one of the better state university systems in the nation", as off-topic as it may be. Can you tell me where I can find this information? Because growing up there and going to school there, the "commonwealth" has made it nearly impossible for Virginians to attend their schools (I only got into one state school, my younger brother to none).
Marc Fisher: Yes, Virginia's colleges have become more selective, and that's troubling to those who struggle to get in, but it's also a sign of the rising quality of the institutions, which are defined not only by the level of their faculty and the research they produce, but also by the achievement and commitment of the students.
A great state system has institutions at all levels, and Virginia has strong top-shelf universities as well as a good community college network, especially in the DC region.
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Virginia: I miss the mechanical voting machines, where you push down the levers for your choices and then pull the big lever back to record them and open the curtain. That always seemed like a good middle ground.
Marc Fisher: Best part of those machines: The sounds they make. Now that was real voting.
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National Holiday: We have 9 national holidays, and on at least seven of them most retail stores are open (Thanksgiving is unfortunately lurching into a shopping day). On all of them, most food & entertainment-type business are open. So, if we make election day a national holiday, how does that help people working in the service economy (most of us now)?
24-hour voting is good in theory, but try getting election judges for every precinct for 3 a.m.
Marc Fisher: Pay them and they'll be there.
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Confused: Marc - I don't understand why election day should be a holiday. I believe that if people consider voting to be important then they will make the decisions that allow them the time to vote. Some people consider buying Christmas gifts for their kids to be important so they save up for months to pay for the toys. Can't people cut their personal vacations short by one day so they can take a vacation day to vote? People will vote if they want to vote ... or not.
Marc Fisher: I'm inclined to agree with that, but I hear so many stories from readers about the real difficulties in getting to vote that I think a 24-hour vote would help--after all, our work shifts, retail hours, commuting times and other indicators of how we live have all shifted toward a 24-hour day, so why shouldn't voting shift as well?
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washingtonpost.com:
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24 hour voting: Not a bad idea! Maybe we could replicate the "Midnight Madness" excitement of college hoops. Okay, maybe not, but it'd be fun to try.
Marc Fisher: I'd love to work the polls during the graveyard shift. Just to get to see who comes in.
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DC Again:24 hour voting - did a study while on college that even opening up the polls at 4AM captured a 10% larger slice of the voting age population (again in Michigan) which at the time was nearly 960,000. That doesn't guarantee they all vote, but it does make it easier for them to be able to.
Another one we studied was removing restrictions on absentee ballots to allow access so long as they were requested. Michigan had a list you had to meet in order to get one.
Marc Fisher: In most places, the list of acceptable reasons for requesting absentee ballots has ballooned, but more important, the lists are generally ignored. If you just say you can't make it, that's often good enough.
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washingtonpost.com: Choose your Candidate quiz
Marc Fisher: Here's that Choose Your Candidate quiz thing we mentioned earlier....
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washingtonpost.com:
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Washington, D.C. (No, Really): Marc: "Marc Fisher: We could easily devote this chat to the real/fake Virginia issue every week for a year and still not mine all of its levels of cultural meaning.
I've lived in Washington for nearly a quarter century and I'm still fascinated by the number of people I know who were born and grew up in places like Annandale, Chevy Chase, Fairfax City or even as far out as Clinton (Md.) or Clifton (Va.) and yet who introduce themselves as being from...Washington."
Interesting point, but I think we in this area do this out of recognition - possibly sub-consciously - that we live in a transient region. One where many come and go based on political shifts; one with many top colleges and universities; one with a sizable and shifting immigrant population. I think with all of those things in mind, it simply becomes easier to say one is from DC than from Annandale.
Or maybe we all just think it's more impressive to say "I'm from Washington" than "I'm from Germantown"...
Marc Fisher: Could be--that's a good theory.
But I'm always a tad suspicious of theories based on the notion that this is a particularly transient region. It's not. In fact, it's less transient than most Sunbelt metro areas. Remember, government once accounted for a gigantic share of employment in the Washington area, but it doesn't anymore--not since the development of the Dulles tech corridor, the I-270 biotech corridor, and the overall diversification of the local economy.
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Waldorf, Md.: I'm related to one of the men who was killed by the speeding police officer whose case was not sent to the jury, even though the chase violated several PD rules. In situations like this, it would be a huge help if the judge explained his reasoning. Obviously, we're biased, but we thought the testimony clearly showed wrongdoing. The prosecutors also expressed disappointment and (I probably shouldn't say this) but indicated there was no way that particular judge was ever going to find a police officer guilty of anything. And now we have no recourse whatsoever. It's very sad.
Marc Fisher: That was indeed a shocker of a ruling. I wasn't there, so I can't say for certain, but it sure looked like there were enough issues and enough evidence for a jury to at least take a look.
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Suburban Washington: Hi Marc --
I have to disagree with your premise about Suburban DC residents being so much different from suburbanites elsewhere in terms of saying where they are from.
I grew up in Edina, MN (very comparable to Bethesda) and almost invariably told people that I was from "a suburb of Minneapolis." Now, I live in Bethesda, and tell people (outside of DC) that I live in a "suburb of DC." I would expect that my children will do the same when they get older.
Marc Fisher: Yes, I'm sure that's the common way of doing it in much of the country, but maybe the real distinction is between those who say "I'm from Virginia, right near DC," and those who say just "DC."
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Confederates in the Attic by Tony Horwitz is a fascinating look into the feelings of people in the South towards the Civil War: Yeah, but as a 7th generation Richmonder, I can tell you there are few people who still think that way. Those who do are very vocal and get noticed, but please don't imply that any significant number of people still think that way. At the dedication of the Arthur Ashe statue, the only protesters had to be bussed in from Danville.
Marc Fisher: Good point--thanks.
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Arlington, Va.: For NoVA sticking it to RoVA - the money would be awesome to keep- but then we'd have no college football team to cheer for in NoVA... oh then there's that small thing about losing political clout in the House of Reps.
Marc Fisher: But isn't it odd that no great public university has developed in such a densely populated area as northern Virginia. Mason is getting stronger all the time, but it clearly doesn't get the share of resources and attention within the state system that it ought to.
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Burke, Va.: You may not buy that the divide in Virginia is "the better informed vs. the ignorant", but when Sarah Palin makes condescending remarks about fruit fly research (hello, Sarah, that would be genetics), is there any question about which segment of the population the Republicans are targeting?
Marc Fisher: Anti-intellectualism in American life--the great Hofstadter book that's as fresh today as it was half a century ago--is a theme of this campaign cycle that academics will be exploring for many years to come.
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Kingstowne, Va.: I have no issue with early voting as long as the tallies are not released until election day. One of my pet peeves is the tracking of the race as it is happening ("with 30% reporting, the other guy doesn't have a chance, the rest of you don't need to bother voting"). When the states have finished counting ballots, they can then report the results.
Bonus benefit: we wouldn't have to suffer all the election night insanity on TV.
Marc Fisher: That's a tough question, but in general, it's a rare case when there is a very strong argument for suppressing information, just for a couple of hours.
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Re: Unreal, Va.: Last Sunday's Doonesbury may explain the divide. It isn't necessarily about being more informed or more educated. It's about the supposed distinction between "book learning" and "common sense," the false idea that the two are incompatible or contradictory. This seems to involve a reverse elitism. I've encountered MANY people without college educations who automatically assume that I would look down on them simply because I have a degree.
Marc Fisher: Precisely--I'll try to get into this in Sunday's piece.
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Chantilly, Va.: Could you please explain to me (in regular everyday folk-speak vs. cop-speak) how, exactly, searching random people will make it safer aboard Metro? If I were a terrorist carrying a backpack (or wearing a vest of) C4 and I saw a checkpoint, I'd turn around and walk away.
The Metro police chief said that they have other ways of determining whether a suspect is suspicious. If that's the case, why not just look for suspicious looking folks in the first place?!?
This whole charade will do nothing to increase safety anymore than the TSA has done at the airports.
Marc Fisher: Right--read Jeffrey Goldberg in this month's Atlantic about what a farce the TSA security is at the airports.
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Marc Fisher: That has to wrap things up for this week--apologies to the many, many I couldn't get to this time. Please come on back Election night and next Thursday at this hour so we can figure out what we've just done.
Thanks for coming along and write if you get work.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 31, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 30, 2008 Thursday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Paul Kane, Washington Post Congressional Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4259 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post congressional reporter Paul Kane was online live Thursday, Oct. 30 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Paul Kane: Is it really possible that I -- of all Post reporters -- get to do this morning's chat? Seriously, a lifelong Philadelphia Phillies phan like myself. Wow. I apologize in advance for all my baseball/Phillies references in this chat. I can't help myself. But, there's something perfect about a baseball season, sort of like a political campaign. You throw yourself into it and it becomes the way you mark time. And, if your like me, the two begin to blend together. When did Rick Renzi get indicted? Feb. 22, while I was on a golf trip with my brother Matt and my hometown friends. The next day, we went to Clearwater to watch the Phillies practice. Our new relief pitcher, Brad Lidge, stepped onto the mound to throw and I proclaimed our entire season rested on his shoulders. On the next pitch he got hurt, and it started to pour down rain. Practice cancelled. On my 38th birthday my friends thew a party at a bar we now call "PK's Rec Room", and a GOP staffer told me that there was a bubbling scandal with Obama's small-dollar contributions. Oh, and Brad Lidge blew a save in the all-star game that night, his only blown save of the year, meaning the National League would be the away team in the World Series. On the night of Sept. 18, Carl Hulse of the NY Times and I were supposed to go to the Nationals-Mets game, so I could cheer on the Nats as my Phillies chased down the Mets. Instead, Bernanke and Paulson came to the Hill to tell Congress the world had changed. And last week, while on the campaign trail covering House and Senate races, I sat by myself in a suburban Detroit hotel room screaming and yelling at the TV like some mad man. It's a wonder I didn't get kicked out of the hotel. Folks, on to the politics, but first, let me just say: We did it. And thanks to Brody and Lauren for letting me watch all the games in their condo on nights I was here in DC. I couldn't possibly watch it all by myself. -- pk
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Fairfax, Va. -- Connolly vs. Fimian: Do you have any polling numbers for the Connolly vs. Fimian race? That one is rather nasty, with allegations on both sides.
Paul Kane: You know, I haven't even paid any attention to this race, I'm sorry. I think it was one that was supposed to be a blockbuster back in the winter when Rep. Tom Davis announced he was retiring. But the environment in northern Virginia is just so pro-Obama, it's impossible for a first-time Republican to win. The Rothenberg Political Report has already placed this race in the "Democrat favored" category. You know, Tom Davis is a big baseball fan. I wonder what he thinks about the Phillies.
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Philadelphia: Yea Phillies! Paul, isn't it time to call Arizona a swing or battleground state? If McCain and the press are saying that about Pennsylvania (which nearly every poll has at plus-nine for Obama) shouldn't they say it about Arizona, where we've seen McCain go from up 20 percentage points to up four?
Paul Kane: See, this person knows how to play to my preferences to get me to answer his/her question. I don't know what to think of Arizona. Yes, it's been a swing state in the past. But I just don't think it's going to be that close. I mean, if it is, that means Obama wins around 400 electoral votes. I just don't think that's going to happen. People are acting silly. This is sort of like the Bush-Cheney campaign in '00, when they thought they could win New Jersey. Obama's folks should just focus and finish on the states that get them the White House and not worry about those other places.
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Paterson, N.J.: Congrats on the Phillies. You obviously should take full credit for the victory. My question is whether the intense campaign season and extended congressional session divided too much of your attention and hindered your full enjoyment of what hopefully (and probably) will be the last Philadelphia major sports championship for at least another quarter century?
Paul Kane: Ben, is that you? Or one of your coworkers? Is Pascrell making you all work hard so he gets 75% this year?
It was a tough fall, covering the usual congressional end-game and then the $700 billion bailout and now all the races. I watched one play of the division-clinching win against the Nats -- the double-play to end the game -- because it was the Saturday of the marathon negotiations that led to the first bailout "deal". But hey, I got to watch all the key moments of the playoffs.
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Montreal: Paul, are there any good historical parallels for the arc of Joe Lieberman's recent career? Vice-presidential nominee on the Democratic ticket in 20OO, lost his own primary but got re-elected in a Democratic state in 2006, pretty much part of the Republican ticket in 2008. Talk about picking the wrong team at the wrong time!
Paul Kane: I can't think of any parallel like Lieberman. This guy was a good Democrat just 8 years ago, and I mean "good" in the sense that he was a party loyalist. Sure, he was a big moral values guy, but the Dems liked having him around because it helped with the Clinton scandal issues. He was a moral compass for them.
I mean, Jim Jeffords switching parties and giving the Dems control of the Senate in 2001 was pretty wild and crazy, but, let's face it, Jeffords was never a key figure with Republicans.
No, I can't think of anything like what Lieberman has done. I guess the only parallel would be to have placed a really big bet on the Rays winning the world series after Pedro Feliz drove in what amounted to the winning run of last night's game.
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Chapel Hill, N.C.: I hope you will comment on the new ad being run by Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her race against Kay Hagan. In this ad, Sen. Dole insinuates that Kay Hagan is "godless" because she accepted money from an atheist group. Further, the ad closes with "she took Godless money -- what did she promise in return?" I am incredibly angry at the new low that Elizabeth Dole has brought to this election, and the embarrassment she has brought to our state. Kay Hagan has been a Presbyterian elder and Sunday School teacher. Where does this stop?
Paul Kane: I'm going to watch the ad today, I'm sorry I haven't watched it yet. I saw it emailed to me yesterday but I figured the "godless" accusation was so far out there, it wouldn't resonate. However, Mason-Dixon has a poll out this morning showing Dole edging ahead of Hagan. That would be a real blow to the Democrats, who believed a week ago that this was a race they had in the bag. Instead, this could be turning into Tester-Burns, the race in '06 in which Burns closed really strong and ended up losing only by a couple thousand votes.
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Salinas, Calif.: So Paul, do you think that the Pennsylvania voters McCain desperately has been trying to reach will appreciate the irony that "Joe the Plumber" will be more likely to breach Obama's $250,000 tax threshold now that he's signed with a Nashville PR firm for a national speaking tour?
Paul Kane: About 1/3 of all Pennsylvania voters are in the southeast corner of the state, around Philadelphia, and they spent the past week arguing over Bud Selig's decisions about when to start or delay baseball games. (Bud, thanks for starting the game Saturday night after 10 pm, because I was there to watch in person!)
Seriously, it's hard to over-state how much the Philly area focused on the Phillies and not presidential politics the past two weeks. I doubt my family knows who Joe the Plumber is.
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Cheesesteak: You know what? I'm not worried about next Tuesday or about next Wednesday. I'm worried about the following weeks when I keep trying to hit "refresh" on the Politico and Washington Post Web sites, when I keep looking for the same high from Milbank's antics, but instead find myself wandering alone at 3 a.m. through the broken shards of outdated polls. Then, finding rock bottom, I turn to Hazelden ... wait, no, Betty Ford! Yes, the Betty Ford Clinic in a swing state. That should do the trick.
Paul Kane: Hah, that's a funny reaction. Because this campaign has been sooooo long, so never-ending. I mean, think about it, Obama announced in mid-February 2007 in Springfield, Ill. In that time two World Series champions have been crowned, the Democrats have seized the House seats of Denny Hastert and two Deep South Republicans. Hillary Clinton's gaffe in a debate on driver's licenses for immigrants in Philadelphia seems like a few years ago. It's amazing how long this has gone on.
You'll get through this, don't worry. There's a whole transition to go through, confirmation hearings, all sorts of stuff. Plus, as soon as the election's over, there's the whole what-happens-to-Lieberman stories to get you through the night.
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Rolla, Mo.: Last night's 30 minute ad is another example of how well Obama has run his campaign. Whether you agree with his positions or not, whether you plan to vote for him or not, it's hard to argue that his campaign hasn't been managed masterfully. I don't know how this translates to running the White House, but it's in stark contrast to the campaign on the other side.
Paul Kane: David Plouffe -- Obama's campaign manager, a huge Phillies fan and, most importantly, a University of Delaware Fightin' Blue Hen -- thanks you for that question. But honestly, maybe I was just too intensely focused on the World Series, but my friends and I turned that thing on and after 10 minutes I was bored. I don't know what I was expecting, but it wasn't very compelling. Again, I was very distracted so take my views with a proverbial grain of salt. But personally, I think he shoulda just re-aired the Iowa caucus speech. Nah, I'm kidding.
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Hey!: Is this a sports chat or a political chat?
Paul Kane: Sorry, sorry, but I did pre-emptively apologize.
Look, every once in a while over on "Freedom Rock" -- my colleague J. Freedom duLac's music chats -- he just declares it to be an all-Springsteen chat.
Well, today is close to an all-Philadelphia chat. I cant' help myself.
By the way, I can't believe that Pennsylvania seems to not even be a focal point of the final days of this campaign. After so much focus went into it in '00 and '04, it just seems odd.
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Lieberman? That's nothing, really: Paul, John Connally forever will be the most dramatic party-switching story in modern American politics, with the late-life transformation of George Wallace a close second. Jewish Americans are an important constituency in the Democratic Party, and many right-wing Jews like Lieberman have spent a great deal of time as Democrats before eventually becoming de facto Republicans (Ed Koch readily comes to mind).
Paul Kane: Yeah, the Texas governor is a pretty big one, come to think of it. Going from being at Kennedy's side in Dealey Plaza to running for the GOP nomination. Ok, I'll buy that. As for Lieberman and conservative Jewish voters, we'll see what happens. But the Democratic plan right now seems to be to strip Lieberman of his committee chairmanship but not to outright expel him (that would involve stripping him of every committee assignment; instead, he'll lose the chairmanship but get to stay on all his committees). I don't know if that's enough to push him over the edge and walk across the aisle to caucus with Republicans.
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Ashbury Park, N.J.: Paul, it has been a while since you've gotten a juicy Boss question, so I thought I'd toss you a bone. I've been thinking about which song I'd choose to epitomize each candidate's campaign. (As of late I'm thinking "Reason to Believe" or "Leap of Faith" for McCain and "Prove It All Night" for Obama.) What would your picks be? Thanks and hope you get a break after Election Day!
Paul Kane: A Springsteen question! Honestly, the best song for McCain right now is The Rising. Unfortunately, it's the Democrats that are using it. But "The Rising" is about dedicated servants running into a towering inferno unsure of what's about to happen but still dedicated to the cause. As for Obama, it kinda feels like he's just sitting on his lead right now, so it's more of a lullaby-type song, something like "Waiting on a Sunny Day" or "Hungry Heart".
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Alexandria, Va.: First things first, congratulations all Phillies fans on the World Series win last night. I'm a Yankees fan, but I was rooting for you guys. I think the city of Philly and the surrounding suburbs deserve it -- great team, fun to watch. Secondly Paul, I am an independent in Virginia who a few months ago decided to vote for Obama. I still will, but last night's "political message" -- while very nicely done -- made me take notice at one point because there is a serious discrepancy between what Obama has been saying about his tax plan and what he said last night.
Last night he said everyone under $200,000 will get a tax cut; however, on the stump and in debates and on his Web site he has been saying that everyone under $250,000 will get one. This is a glaring difference, and while $50,000 may not be a big deal for some people, for others it definitely is. Has anyone reported on this yet? Again, I'm still going to vote for him, but I am worried (and other independent family members are as well) that he already is backtracking from his campaign promises.
Paul Kane: Amen to your first point. As for your substance question, I'm not sure of the answer, but he most certainly has always said $250,000 in every format I've seen.
The important thing to remember in all this is, it's all gonna be worked out up here on Capitol Hill anyway. That's a very nice tax propsal President Obama (or President McCain), but now it's time for Chairman Charlie Rangel and Chairman Max Baucus to give their own input to that plan. So, in the end, you've got to remember that the Democrats in Congress will have a bigger say on this tax plan than Obama lets on right now. And, with deficits soaring the way they are, it's not at all clear that Obama will be able to deliver on the tax cut proposals he talks about on the stump.
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Princeton, N.J.: I'm 70. I saw my first Phillies in, I believe, 1948. It was a doubleheader against the Reds. We lost the first game, and when my father saw the warm up of their pitcher for the secong game, he said "let's skip it." It was Ewell Blackwell's rookie season. Okay: Suppose Obama gets 370, we get 60 in the Senate and 270 in the House. Won't the prescence of so many really comservative Democrats make it hard for a lot of very liberal programs from getting through?
Paul Kane: And that, ladies and gentleman, is what it's like to be a Phillies fan, your 1st father-son experience at the ballpark being a double-header loss. Man, that's terrible. From the way you've asked your question, I'm assuming you're a Democrat. I guess the Phillies win has gone to your head and you're now super optimistic on everything. Because, look, it's a long way to 370 electoral votes and 60 Senate seats. A long way. Democrats need to focus and finish, do the basics, get out all the votes. Dole could be mounting a come back in NC, Coleman seems to be turning the needle in Minnesota.
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New York: Speaking of the bailout, this has gone from trickle-down to I know not what, now that the banks are not even going to loan the money out to businesses and other banks. Any chance the entire thing gets repealed?
Paul Kane: I don't think there's any ability to "repeal" the law once the money goes out the door of the Treasury. But the 2nd batch of cash, the last $350 billion, needs congressional approval. So, yes, that's the chit Congress has left to play here. If they don't like the way things are going, they can refuse to allocate that money to Paulson or his successor at Treasury.
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Valdosta, Ga.: Paul -- congratulations to the Phillies. I have seen no poll about Jack Kingston here in Georgia. Do you know anything about the race? His opponent is a former military man -- is there any chance we can send Rep. Kingston back to his family? Recall that he didn't want to work a four days a week, only three. Some of us in his district would like him to not have the job!
Paul Kane: I can't tell you anything about the polling down there, but I know that it's not a race on anyone's radar right now. So, i assume both parties believe it's safely in Kingston's hands.
You know, after Democrats won Mississippi 1 in the special election, Rep. Chris Van Hollen called me at my desk and told me something interesting: The environment was so bad for Republicans, that Democrats could put any seat in play that they wanted to. It was bravado, sure, but I really wonder what would have happened if Van Hollen blind folded himself and threw a dart at a map. Let's just say the dart hit the district of Rep. John Sullivan in Oklahoma, a conservati who regularly wins with 60% or more, whose district gave Bush 65% in 2004. If Van Hollen and the DCCC just decided on a whim to pump $2 million into a race against Sullivan, could they have knocked him off? Made it close? I don't know, but it's intersting to think about.
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Anonymous: If Ted Kennedy decides to retire, who is likely to take his seat ?
Paul Kane: Ah, the Kennedy succession game. Four years ago at this time, with John Kerry possibly headed for the White House, everyone in Boston was focused on the World Series win of the Red Sox -- except for about 5 people who were angling for the chance to get Kerry's Senate seat. Marty Meehan, the congressman who's now a university president in the U-Mass system, is still sitting on about $5 million in his campaign account. He wanted the Kerry seat and will want Ted Kennedy's seat whenever it comes open. So too does Rep. Ed Markey and a few other members of the state's delegation. Now that he's a committee chairman, Barney Frank is not as likely to go for the seat if Kennedy were to retire because of his health.
Two things to remember. As of now, Kennedy is trying to send signals that he's getting better. And, don't forget, but for a brief interval after Jack's White House victory, this seat has basically been in the Kennedy family since 1952. I think former Rep. Joe Kennedy, son of Bobby and nephew of the senator, may be able to stake a family claim there.
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Washington: I think I read that $200,000 is for individuals and $250,000 for families. I have heard him refer to both figures -- check his Web site for clarification though.
Paul Kane: http://origin.barackobama.com/taxes/
There's the link to the tax plan.
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York, Pa.: This has been the worst political chat I've read. If I wanted to talk about sports I would wait for one of the sports chat to come on. When will the discussion about politics actually happen? I hope that there is another chat on today that actually focuses on politics.
washingtonpost.com: As a matter of fact ... Noon: Western States in the General Election; 1 p.m.: Washington Sketch with Dana Milbank; 2 p.m. Tucker Carlson and Ana Marie Cox; Purple State Citizen Journalist Videos; 3 p.m.: Larry Sabato.
Paul Kane: Our readers, gotta love them.
_______________________
Lexington, Mass.: I can't believe you found the Obama film boring. I am a 55-year-old father of two -- my wife works with people who are mentally retarded and I am a headhunter -- and we barely get by! I found the stories of other folks who are struggling like we are to be quite moving. Maybe you political writers don't have the same kind of economic worries most Americans have right now.
Paul Kane: Again, I said I was kind of distracted. I don't know what I was looking for, maybe what I just felt like hearing was one of those soaring rhetoric speeches. So much about life is expectations. And I just wasn't expecting that. The stories of those people were moving and captured the feel of this country at this time, I'm sure. I'm just saying that, it wasn't what I was expecting.
And as for newspaper reporters, we have worries, don't worry. Our industry has been in one long depression now for this entire decade.
_______________________
Anonymous: Has Howard Dean been reported missing yet ?
Paul Kane: Great question. Dean really hasn't been seen much at all, not since the convention. There are still a lot of Dean diehards out there who believe his 50-state strategy laid the groundwork for Obama's campaign. If nothing else, his '04 campaign's tapping into the Internet certainly provided a roadmap for all Democrats for fundraising and other cyber-strategies. The Dems are far ahead of the Republicans on that score, for certain.
_______________________
Iowa: Any chance that Becky Greenwald will pull out a win over Tom Latham in Iowa's 4th Congressional District? Iowa never has sent a woman to Congress. The Des Moines Register endorsed her this week.
Paul Kane: Looking at my latest Rothenberg Political Report, that race is not on the map right now. Just means that the Dems aren't actively campaigning there with the DCCC's money. That really is funny how Iowa hasn't ever sent a woman to Congress. Anyone else remember when Hillary Clinton got in trouble for bashing Iowa for that about a year ago? Then she pivoted and said something about how she'd expect that of Mississippi -- prompting Trent Lott to get all upset. Man, that feels like it was three years ago.
_______________________
South Bend, Ind.: Paul, conservatives out here really have honed in Obama's support for the Freedom of Choice Act (FOCA) and its potential impact on abortion restrictions. My understanding, though, is that FOCA basically has been languishing in committee for almost 20 years. Should the Democrats win big on Election Day, do you expect they actually will spend political capital on passing FOCA?
Paul Kane: I don't expect abortion issues to come to the forefront at all in the 111th Congress. Seems that the Democrats basically just want to stop the march toward repealing Roe v. Wade.
I don't think they have any interest in actually taking up expansive abortion language, if for no other reason than it will tear their own party apart. (Guys like Bob Casey are now winning Senate seats for them.)
_______________________
Looking past Tuesday...: Is there any chance that we could see true election reform in this country? I am suspicious of different states having such widely varying times for "early" voting ... wouldn't it be better to continue allowing absentee voting, but also set aside one three-day weekend (Friday through Sunday) for folks to vote, then have one day for counting (Monday) and not have such disparate systems?
Paul Kane: You know, I love this idea. Something about this early voting and easy-to-do absentee voting just makes me feel odd. I like the idea of having at least two days of the polls being open, and I like the idea of it ending on a Saturday.
All that said, I just don't think there's a chance of anything like that happening. Reform, of any stripe, never happens when one party controls all the levers of power. And we're on the verge of that. True reform only happens when there's divided government, because both parties come together on something (think McCain-Feingold in '02, when Dems controlled the Senate).
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: I was at Game Four and there were numerous "Joe The Pitcher" references. Pennsylvania is going red -- last night was just the first step.
Paul Kane: Hahaha. Pennsylvania's getting more and more blue, except tomorrow when the Phillies start off the parade outside my brother Jim's office at 20th and Market. That's a Red October in Philadelphia.
_______________________
Paul Kane: OK folks, time to get going. I took a few extra questions there because, well, some of you were complaining about the Phillies stuff. Again, I apologize. But, it's an awesome feeling. Having been able to be at game 3, watching that slow roller down the 3rd base line at 1:47 a.m. for the Phillies win, just an awesome feeling. And this stuff gets in people's minds during the presidential campaign. It's a stress reliever. I'm sure David Plouffe's only moments of levity for the past year were the few hours he got to watch the Phillies in Obama HQ.
Now, back to politics. Just a few days till we know the results. Amazing times ahead people. Will Obama win in a landslide? A McCain comeback? Will the Dems get 60? Will Alaskans vote for a convicted felon to return to the Senate even though he's facing jail time?
We're just days away from the results. Amazing. Almost as amazing as a Phillies World Series. Almost. --pk
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 31, 2008
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84 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 30, 2008 Thursday 10:46 AM EST
The Big Show
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2252 words
HIGHLIGHT: It was like a well-produced "60 Minutes" report on the struggling middle class, if those who are struggling all happened to live in swing states. Call it "30 Minutes."
It was like a well-produced "60 Minutes" report on the struggling middle class, if those who are struggling all happened to live in swing states. Call it "30 Minutes."
Obama did the voice-over, playing the role of correspondent, and the goal, of course, was to intertwine his personal story with the difficulties and aspirations of ordinary Americans whose votes he needs to put him over the top.
The Obama infomercial last night began in a faux Oval Office -- the desk, the tree behind the windows, the flag pin on the man who once disdained them -- that to my eye seemed a tad presumptuous. It was, naturally, designed to get you to envision him as the 44th president.
The mini-portraits -- the injured tire worker in Missouri, the retired railroad worker in Ohio, the widow with two jobs in New Mexico, the teacher in Colorado, the auto worker in Kentucky -- were polished and, at times, quite moving. Obama wants it known that he is fighting for them.
What also worked was depicting Barack in people's living rooms, talking about what he wants to do for them. (Although how did the tax cuts suddenly move down from people earning $250,000 to those at 200K?)
What didn't work were the brief tributes by senators and governors -- who might as well have been touting the slice-o-matic -- and the snippets of Obama's Greek column convention speech. We've already seen that, and it was out of sync with the tone of the ad.
Which brings me to the final three minutes. The idea of moving from the safety of a videotape to a live event was inspired. But doing it in a cheering Florida stadium with Obama going to the overblown rhetoric and vowing to "change the world," not so much. The whole idea of the show was to bring Obama down from the clouds and into the street. The big rally came close to canceling out the man-of-the-people image so carefully constructed in the previous 27 minutes.
Still, the show was on CBS, NBC, Fox and four other networks -- the biggest such splash since Ross Perot's pie charts -- and it probably helped at the margins. Even if it didn't, I don't get some of the advance criticism that the show would boomerang because of its excessive nature. No one had to watch. They could always switch over to "Pushing Daisies" on ABC.
If the press were inclined to hammer the Democratic nominee for buying the election after blowing off public financing, the infomercial would be Exhibit A. But the press is giving him a pass on the issue.
One other observation: Has Obama been watching too many Palin speeches? He kept talking about "workin' families" and was in full g-dropping mode.
"As a piece of political theater," says USA Today, "the program was a low-key triumph, a message perfectly attuned to the cool side of the medium."
"It offered even the swiftest channel-flipper the chance to see Obama looking presidential, helping to condition voters to that possibility," says the Los Angeles Times. "And once again it proved to John McCain, and everyone else, how Obama's deep pool of campaign cash has allowed him to rewrite the rules of the campaign."
"As in his speech in Berlin and his stadium nomination speech last summer," says the New York Times, "Mr. Obama's campaign was again practicing its brand of big-event politics with this infomercial: Taking over a huge chunk of the television dial in an effort to make a closing sale with an audience that was likely to be well into the millions. And like the gambits before it, the advertisement held risks just by definition of what it was: A giant financial outlay that made Mr. Obama almost unavoidable to television viewers who are by now weary from all these many months of politicking."
"The America he depicted was not exactly America the Beautiful," says the New York Post. "It was more like America the worried -- with last night's show stressing everything that is wrong with America and little right with it. If the show represented Obama's 'message of hope,' I'd hate to hear what he has to say when he feels pessimistic."
Is the race tightening? Well, maybe, says the New Republic's Noam Scheiber:
"Obama's lead in the national tracking polls looks to be around five points (I get 5.5 when I average all six of the trackers I mentioned, along with the Hotline and Battleground trackers, which haven't changed much in the last few days). If that drops two-to-three points, as it easily could in a week, I don't think it's crazy to think McCain will have a shot at winning Pennsylvania, Virginia, and/or Colorado. Unlikely, yes, but not crazy. According to sites like Real Clear and Pollster.com, Obama's lead in those states is currently larger than his 5.5 point national lead (significantly so in Pennsylvania). But, as I argued last week, the relationship between battleground-state numbers and national numbers can change significantly as we approach the finish, and those state averages you see could easily be a week out of date.
"My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge -- the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week -- and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early."
Chuck Todd, who's been standing in front of blue maps lately, says the ballgame is the remaining undecideds:
"These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.
"The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?
"If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain -- as I've argued before -- will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote."
Conservatives, such as Powerline's John Hinderaker, are taking heart in a couple of tracking polls:
"Barack Obama's national lead over John McCain is down to two points in Gallup's 'traditional' turnout poll, and Wednesday morning Rasmussen Reports has Obama's lead dwindling to three points . . . Obama's lead may or may not be three points, but I think we can rely on Rasmussen for the proposition that McCain is closing the gap.
"The history of this campaign has been one of McCain climbing the hill, only to roll back down on account of events in the news, most critically the financial crisis. Whenever the news cycle is quiet, McCain moves toward parity."
This Politico item carries a whiff of impropriety:
"Aides to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) scheduled pricey luncheons, roundtables, readings, VIP receptions and policy dinners with campaign officials and advisers, offering donors a taste of his potential administration.
"Supporters could eat dinner in Los Angeles with Warren Buffett, an Obama adviser and one of history's shrewdest investors, for $28,500, the federal limit for donations by an individual to a national party committee. Or they could attend a 'VIP reception' with the sage of Omaha for $10,000, or an 'economic roundtable' for just $1,000. The Obama campaign declined to comment on the schedule.
"A 'Round Table Discussion' in Boston with Robert E. Rubin, who was Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and talked on the phone with Obama as the financial crisis broke out, cost $28,500. And a reception in Boston with former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), a possible chief of staff in an Obama White House, was offered for $500 or $2,500."
This sort of access-peddling is not unusual, but it doesn't exactly sound like a candidate who's leaving behind old-style politics, does it?
The McCain campaign is hitting hard at the L.A. Times for refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 banquet at which Obama praised Palestinian rights activist Rashid Khalidi. The paper did break the story last April, but perhaps the Times should have done a better job of explaining its position, as when I called Monday night. Now comes the belated reason:
"The Los Angeles Times did not publish the videotape because it was provided to us by a confidential source who did so on the condition that we not release it," said the newspaper's editor, Russ Stanton. "The Times keeps its promises to sources."
It's not clear to me why the source would leak the story but put the video off-limits. On the other hand, McCain has backed a federal shield law for journalists, so it's interesting that he's pounding the paper for keeping its promise.
The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg calls the LAT a pro-censorship organization.
It's Obama by a landslide . . . at Slate. McCain gets only one vote.
Slate Editor-in-Chief Jake Weisberg on the Democratic nominee: "I've been following his career since he was in the Illinois Senate and rooting for him to run for president since the spring of 2006, when I read his first book and interviewed him for a magazine story. I came away from that encounter deeply impressed by Obama's thoughtfulness, his sensitivity to language, and his unusual degree of self-knowledge. This guy is the antidote to the past eight years."
Media man Jack Shafer is for Bob Barr: "I've continued to punch Libertarian on my ballot because no other candidate or political party comes close to reflecting my political views of limited government, free markets, civil liberties, and noninterventionist foreign policy."
The lone GOP supporter, deputy managing editor Rachael Larimore: "This is a difficult election for me. But voting for John McCain is an easy choice. He's a man I admire, I agree with many of his policy positions, and, since I am a moderate but loyal Republican, I feel a kind of kinship with him."
The Sarah Palin debate rages on, particularly among women, such as Salon's Joan Walsh:
"Both of the following observations are true:
"A) Palin is a nasty and very skilled political opportunist who is giving as good as she's getting, smacking Barack Obama, Joe Biden and now McCain (his staff, anyway) with savage glee. and
"B) She's being scapegoated in a personal way that seems sadly familiar for female candidates, in very sexist terms: First 'diva,' then 'whack job;' next she'll be Glenn Close in 'Fatal Attraction.' Oops, sorry, that was Hillary Clinton . . .
"Still, it's hard not to notice that a woman is being blamed and shamed yet again, when the real screw-up here is McCain himself, who presided over possibly the worst V.P. pick in modern history."
Conservative Danielle Crittenden challenges the notion that Palin's critics are elitists:
"In fact, not only did I NOT go to Harvard, I have no education to speak of. Not beyond high school anyway (and it was one of those large, urban high schools from which many of the most successful graduates went on to become garage mechanics) . . .
"Maybe it's because of my background that I've been wary of Palin from the get-go -- and more than taken aback by those who insist the only reason a conservative could oppose her would be because of intellectual snobbery.
"Don't get me wrong: I love the idea of Sarah Palin. She conforms to an early American (and pre-feminist) ideal of womanhood: rifle on one hip, baby on the other. I love her modern incarnation of this ideal, complete with Sex-in-the-Tundra wardrobe and kick-ass Jimmy Choos (even if they are paid for by the RNC). I love the idea she represents 'common sense' over fancy-pants theorizing. I love -- and certainly identify with -- her real world, 'out there' experience over her opponents' closed-off years in Washington. Truly, there are few women I'd rather share a beer with.
"The problem is that the reality of Sarah Palin does not match the idea of Sarah Palin. It's as plain as day -- glaringly obvious! -- that she's unfit for the job she's running for. We wouldn't expect the best darn regional car saleswoman to be appointed the next vice president of General Motors. We wouldn't fly in a commercial plane piloted by someone with a Cessna license because we trusted her gut. We wouldn't follow a woman into battle because she's a crack shot at moose hunting. Why is it unreasonable -- or snobbish! -- to have expected a better choice from our party for the next potential leader of the free world?"
Just in case you thought being on the trail was glamorous:
"After the longest, most sustained campaign on record, political reporters are running on little more than the scant sustenance of yet another slice of pizza. Some are running out of energy; others are running out of ideas. 'The one conversation I keep having with reporters is, 'What the hell do we write about? What are the interesting stories left to cover in this election?' ' says The New Yorker's Ryan Lizza. 'There are a lot of people scratching their heads trying to find a new angle at the end.'
"Others, like soldiers who have served one tour too many, are slowly losing touch with the world outside the candidate's orbit. [The NYT's Matt] Bai, who is married to a Fox producer, has seen the strains of life on the road. 'You lose contact with the outside world,' says Bai. 'You call your spouse at home and talk about the trail and the person at home just doesn't get it or care, because it's the same story over and over again. It's murder on relationships.' Every four years, Bai says, there's at least one divorce or break-up. 'It's just not a normal human experience.' "
We're collateral damage. Except that nobody forces us to do this.
LOAD-DATE: November 2, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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85 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 30, 2008 Thursday 8:00 AM EST
The Big Show
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2247 words
HIGHLIGHT: It was like a well-produced "60 Minutes" report on the struggling middle class, if those who are struggling all happened to live in swing states. Call it "30 Minutes."
It was like a well-produced "60 Minutes" report on the struggling middle class, if those who are struggling all happened to live in swing states. Call it "30 Minutes."
Obama did the voice-over, playing the role of correspondent, and the goal, of course, was to intertwine his personal story with the difficulties and aspirations of ordinary Americans whose votes he needs to put him over the top.
The Obama infomercial last night began in a faux Oval Office--the desk, the tree behind the windows, the flag pin on the man who once disdained them--that to my eye seemed a tad presumptuous. It was, naturally, designed to get you to envision him as the 44th president.
The mini-portraits--the injured tire worker in Missouri, the retired railroad worker in Ohio, the widow with two jobs in New Mexico, the teacher in Colorado, the auto worker in Kentucky--were polished and, at times, quite moving. Obama wants it known that he is fighting for them.
What also worked was depicting Barack in people's living rooms, talking about what he wants to do for them. (Although how did the tax cuts suddenly move down from people earning $250,000 to those at 200K?)
What didn't work were the brief tributes by senators and governors--who might as well have been touting the slice-o-matic--and the snippets of Obama's Greek column convention speech. We've already seen that, and it was out of sync with the tone of the ad.
Which brings me to the final three minutes. The idea of moving from the safety of a videotape to a live event was inspired. But doing it in a cheering Florida stadium with Obama going to the overblown rhetoric and vowing to "change the world," not so much. The whole idea of the show was to bring Obama down from the clouds and into the street. The big rally came close to canceling out the man-of-the-people image so carefully constructed in the previous 27 minutes.
Still, the show was CBS, NBC, Fox and four other networks--the biggest such splash since Ross Perot's pie charts--and it probably helped at the margins. Even if it didn't, I don't get some of the advance criticism that the show would boomerang because of its excessive nature. No one had to watch. They could always switch over to "Pushing Daisies" on ABC.
If the press was inclined to hammer the Democratic nominee for buying the election after blowing off public financing, the infomercial would be Exhibit A. But the press is giving him a pass on the issue.
One other observation: Has Obama been watching too many Palin speeches? He kept talking about "workin' families" and was in full g-dropping mode.
"As a piece of political theater," says USA Today, "the program was a low-key triumph, a message perfectly attuned to the cool side of the medium."
"It offered even the swiftest channel-flipper the chance to see Obama looking presidential, helping to condition voters to that possibility," says the Los Angeles Times. "And once again it proved to John McCain, and everyone else, how Obama's deep pool of campaign cash has allowed him to rewrite the rules of the campaign."
"As in his speech in Berlin and his stadium nomination speech last summer," says the New York Times, "Mr. Obama's campaign was again practicing its brand of big-event politics with this infomercial: Taking over a huge chunk of the television dial in an effort to make a closing sale with an audience that was likely to be well into the millions. And like the gambits before it, the advertisement held risks just by definition of what it was: A giant financial outlay that made Mr. Obama almost unavoidable to television viewers who are by now weary from all these many months of politicking."
"The America he depicted was not exactly America the Beautiful," says the New York Post. "It was more like America the worried - with last night's show stressing everything that is wrong with America and little right with it. If the show represented Obama's 'message of hope,' I'd hate to hear what he has to say when he feels pessimistic."
Is the race tightening? Well, maybe, says the New Republic's Noam Scheiber:
"Obama's lead in the national tracking polls looks to be around five points (I get 5.5 when I average all six of the trackers I mentioned, along with the Hotline and Battleground trackers, which haven't changed much in the last few days). If that drops two-to-three points, as it easily could in a week, I don't think it's crazy to think McCain will have a shot at winning Pennsylvania, Virginia, and/or Colorado. Unlikely, yes, but not crazy. According to sites like Real Clear and Pollster.com, Obama's lead in those states is currently larger than his 5.5 point national lead (significantly so in Pennsylvania). But, as I argued last week, the relationship between battleground-state numbers and national numbers can change significantly as we approach the finish, and those state averages you see could easily be a week out of date.
"My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge--the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week--and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early."
Chuck Todd, who's been standing in front of blue maps lately, says the ballgame is the remaining undecideds:
"These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.
"The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?
"If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain -- as I've argued before -- will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote."
Conservatives, such as Powerline's John Hinderaker, are taking heart in a couple of tracking polls:
"Barack Obama's national lead over John McCain is down to two points in Gallup's 'traditional' turnout poll, and Wednesday morning Rasmussen Reports has Obama's lead dwindling to three points . . . Obama's lead may or may not be three points, but I think we can rely on Rasmussen for the proposition that McCain is closing the gap.
"The history of this campaign has been one of McCain climbing the hill, only to roll back down on account of events in the news, most critically the financial crisis. Whenever the news cycle is quiet, McCain moves toward parity."
This Politico item carries a whiff of impropriety:
"Aides to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) scheduled pricey luncheons, roundtables, readings, VIP receptions and policy dinners with campaign officials and advisers, offering donors a taste of his potential administration.
"Supporters could eat dinner in Los Angeles with Warren Buffett, an Obama adviser and one of history's shrewdest investors, for $28,500, the federal limit for donations by an individual to a national party committee. Or they could attend a 'VIP reception' with the sage of Omaha for $10,000, or an 'economic roundtable' for just $1,000. The Obama campaign declined to comment on the schedule.
"A 'Round Table Discussion' in Boston with Robert E. Rubin, who was Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and talked on the phone with Obama as the financial crisis broke out, cost $28,500. And a reception in Boston with former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), a possible chief of staff in an Obama White House, was offered for $500 or $2,500."
This sort of access-peddling is not unusual, but it doesn't exactly sound like a candidate who's leaving behind old-style politics, does it?
The McCain campaign is hitting hard at the L.A. Times for refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 banquet at which Obama praised Palestinian rights activist Rashid Khalidi. The paper did break the story last April, but perhaps the Times should have done a better job of explaining its position, as when I called Monday night. Now comes the belated reason:
"The Los Angeles Times did not publish the videotape because it was provided to us by a confidential source who did so on the condition that we not release it," said the newspaper's editor, Russ Stanton. "The Times keeps its promises to sources."
It's not clear to me why the source would leak the story but put the video off-limits. On the other hand, McCain has backed a federal shield law for journalists, so it's interesting that he's pounding the paper for keeping its promise.
The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg calls the LAT a pro-censorship organization.
It's Obama by a landslide . . . at Slate. McCain gets only one vote.
Slate Editor-in-Chief Jake Weisberg on the Democratic nominee: "I've been following his career since he was in the Illinois Senate and rooting for him to run for president since the spring of 2006, when I read his first book and interviewed him for a magazine story. I came away from that encounter deeply impressed by Obama's thoughtfulness, his sensitivity to language, and his unusual degree of self-knowledge. This guy is the antidote to the past eight years."
Media man Jack Shafer is for Bob Barr: "I've continued to punch Libertarian on my ballot because no other candidate or political party comes close to reflecting my political views of limited government, free markets, civil liberties, and noninterventionist foreign policy."
The lone GOP supporter, deputy managing editor Rachael Larimore: "This is a difficult election for me. But voting for John McCain is an easy choice. He's a man I admire, I agree with many of his policy positions, and, since I am a moderate but loyal Republican, I feel a kind of kinship with him."
The Sarah Palin debate rages on, particularly among women, such as Salon's Joan Walsh:
"Both of the following observations are true:
"A) Palin is a nasty and very skilled political opportunist who is giving as good as she's getting, smacking Barack Obama, Joe Biden and now McCain (his staff, anyway) with savage glee. and
"B) She's being scapegoated in a personal way that seems sadly familiar for female candidates, in very sexist terms: First 'diva,' then 'whack job;' next she'll be Glenn Close in 'Fatal Attraction.' Oops, sorry, that was Hillary Clinton . . .
"Still, it's hard not to notice that a woman is being blamed and shamed yet again, when the real screw-up here is McCain himself, who presided over possibly the worst V.P. pick in modern history."
Conservative Danielle Crittenden challenges the notion that Palin's critics are elitists:
"In fact, not only did I NOT go to Harvard, I have no education to speak of. Not beyond high school anyway (and it was one of those large, urban high schools from which many of the most successful graduates went on to become garage mechanics) . . .
"Maybe it's because of my background that I've been wary of Palin from the get-go -- and more than taken aback by those who insist the only reason a conservative could oppose her would be because of intellectual snobbery.
"Don't get me wrong: I love the idea of Sarah Palin. She conforms to an early American (and pre-feminist) ideal of womanhood: rifle on one hip, baby on the other. I love her modern incarnation of this ideal, complete with Sex-in-the-Tundra wardrobe and kick-ass Jimmy Choos (even if they are paid for by the RNC). I love the idea she represents 'common sense' over fancy-pants theorizing. I love -- and certainly identify with -- her real world, 'out there' experience over her opponents' closed-off years in Washington. Truly, there are few women I'd rather share a beer with.
"The problem is that the reality of Sarah Palin does not match the idea of Sarah Palin. It's as plain as day -- glaringly obvious! -- that she's unfit for the job she's running for. We wouldn't expect the best darn regional car saleswoman to be appointed the next vice president of General Motors. We wouldn't fly in a commercial plane piloted by someone with a Cessna license because we trusted her gut. We wouldn't follow a woman into battle because she's a crack shot at moose hunting. Why is it unreasonable -- or snobbish! -- to have expected a better choice from our party for the next potential leader of the free world?"
Just in case you thought being on the trail was glamorous:
"After the longest, most sustained campaign on record, political reporters are running on little more than the scant sustenance of yet another slice of pizza. Some are running out of energy; others are running out of ideas. 'The one conversation I keep having with reporters is, 'What the hell do we write about? What are the interesting stories left to cover in this election?' ' says The New Yorker's Ryan Lizza. 'There are a lot of people scratching their heads trying to find a new angle at the end.'
"Others, like soldiers who have served one tour too many, are slowly losing touch with the world outside the candidate's orbit. [The NYT's Matt] Bai, who is married to a Fox producer, has seen the strains of life on the road. 'You lose contact with the outside world,' says Bai. 'You call your spouse at home and talk about the trail and the person at home just doesn't get it or care, because it's the same story over and over again. It's murder on relationships.' Every four years, Bai says, there's at least one divorce or break-up. 'It's just not a normal human experience.' "
We're collateral damage. Except that nobody forces us to do this.
LOAD-DATE: November 2, 2008
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All Rights Reserved
86 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
October 29, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Closing Arguments
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 184 words
Senator Barack Obama
At a rally in Chester, Pa.
''
When it comes to the issue of taxes, saying that John McCain is running for a third Bush term isn't being fair to George W. Bush. He's proposing $300 billion in new tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and big corporations. That's something not even George Bush proposed. Not even George Bush proposed another $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 C.E.O. Not even George Bush proposed a plan that would leave out 100 million middle-class families. That's not change.''
Senator John McCain
At a rally in Hershey, Pa.
''
Senator Obama has made a lot of promises. First he said people making less than $250,000 would benefit from his plan; then this weekend he announced in an ad that if you're a family making less than 200,000, you'll benefit -- but yesterday, right here in Pennsylvania, Senator Biden said tax relief should only go to 'middle-class people, people making under $150,000 a year.' You getting an idea of what's on their mind? Heh? A little sneak peak? It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down.''
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October 29, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
APPEALS COURTS PUSHED TO RIGHT BY BUSH CHOICES
BYLINE: By CHARLIE SAVAGE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 2358 words
WASHINGTON -- After a group of doctors challenged a South Dakota law forcing them to inform women that abortions ''terminate the life of a whole, separate, unique living human being'' -- using exactly that language -- President Bush's appointees to the federal appeals courts took control.
A federal trial judge, stating that whether a fetus is human life is a matter of debate, had blocked the state from enforcing the 2005 law as a likely violation of doctors' First Amendment rights. And an appeals court panel had upheld the injunction.
But this past June, the full United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit voted 7 to 4 to overrule those decisions and allow the statute to take immediate effect. The majority argued that it is objectively true that human life begins at conception, and that the state can force doctors to say so.
Mr. Bush had appointed six of the seven judges in the conservative majority. His administration has transformed the nation's federal appeals courts, advancing a conservative legal revolution that began nearly three decades ago under President Ronald Reagan.
On Oct. 6, Mr. Bush pointed with pride to his record at a conference sponsored by the Cincinnati chapter of the Federalist Society, the elite network for the conservative legal movement. He noted that he had appointed more than a third of the federal judiciary expected to be serving when he leaves office, a lifetime-tenured force that will influence society for decades and that represents one of his most enduring accomplishments. While a two-term president typically leaves his stamp on the appeals courts -- Bill Clinton appointed 65 judges, Mr. Bush 61 -- Mr. Bush's judges were among the youngest ever nominated and are poised to have an unusually strong impact.
They have arrived at a time when the appeals courts, which decide tens of thousands of cases a year, are increasingly getting the last word. While the Supreme Court gets far more attention, in recent terms it has reviewed only about 75 cases a year -- half what it considered a generation ago. And Mr. Bush's appointees have found allies in like-minded judges named by Mr. Bush's father and Reagan.
Republican-appointed judges, most of them conservatives, are projected to make up about 62 percent of the bench next Inauguration Day, up from 50 percent when Mr. Bush took office. They control 10 of the 13 circuits, while judges appointed by Democrats have a dwindling majority on just one circuit.
David M. McIntosh, a co-founder and vice-chairman of the Federalist Society, said the nation's appeals courts were now more in line with a conservative judicial ideology than at any other time in memory.
''The level of thoughtfulness among sitting judges on constitutional theory and the role of judges is higher than certainly any other time in my life,'' said Mr. McIntosh, a former Reagan legal team member and Indiana congressman. ''For somebody who has spent a lot of my life promoting those ideas, it's very encouraging to see.''
The consequences of the evolving judiciary are only beginning to play out.
In the case of the 2005 South Dakota abortion law, the dissenters -- including two Democratic appointees, a Reagan appointee, and a Bush appointee -- portrayed the court's decision as a sharp change in direction.
The majority, they contended, had not only bypassed ''important principles of constitutional law laid down by the Supreme Court'' but also violated the appeals court's established standards for issuing preliminary injunctions.
The Eighth Circuit, with headquarters in St. Louis, now has the appeals courts' highest proportion of judges appointed by Republicans -- 9 of its 11 judges. But while other circuits have also grown more conservative, none have yet produced a comparably startling outcome.
Appeals courts tend to change the law incrementally rather than in rapid shifts. They are constrained to follow Supreme Court precedent, and most of their work consists of unanimously disposing of routine cases.
Still, every year courts encounter some controversial cases in which they have greater discretion. In such circumstances, several studies have shown that judges appointed by Republican presidents since Reagan have ruled for conservative outcomes more often than have their peers.
They have been more likely than their colleagues to favor corporations over regulators and people alleging discrimination, and to favor government over people who claim rights violations. They have also been more likely to throw out cases on technical grounds, like rejecting plaintiffs' standing to sue.
Mr. McIntosh defended that record, saying the conservative judges are bringing a neutral application of the law to a judiciary that liberals had politicized. But Nan Aron of the Alliance for Justice, a liberal legal group, said Mr. Bush had ''packed the courts'' with ''extremists'' who share an agenda of hostility to regulations and the rights of women, minorities and workers.
''George W. Bush has made great strides in cementing the ultraconservative hold on the federal courts which began with Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, when he set out to impose his agenda on the country through his court appointments,'' Ms. Aron said.
Mr. Bush's commitment to moving the courts rightward has been important not only to elite conservative thinkers, but also to the social conservatives who have been his base of support.
His judicial selections set off fierce clashes with Senate Democrats. Until a compromise was brokered in 2005, Democrats blocked votes on several nominees for years. More recently, the Senate has not voted on Peter Keisler, a former Justice Department official who defended Mr. Bush's detainee policies. Still, most of Mr. Bush's nominees became judges. He is set to leave 15 vacancies; Mr. Clinton left 27.
Conservative and liberal legal activists alike are trying to motivate voters to view the balance of the judiciary as a major issue in the election. Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, has promised to appoint judges in the same ideological mold as Mr. Bush did, while Senator Barack Obama, a Democrat, has said he will select judges with greater ''empathy'' for the disadvantaged.
An Obama victory could roll back the Republican advantage on the appeals courts and even create a Democratic majority by 2013, according to a study of potential vacancies by Russell Wheeler of the Brookings Institution. But if Mr. McCain wins, Republicans could achieve commanding majorities on all 13 circuits.
The conservative effort to reshape the judiciary began as a backlash to a string of liberal court rulings in the 1960s and 1970s. Conservatives objected that judges were usurping the role of legislators and should strictly interpret the Constitution based its original meaning. Liberals countered that this approach was a mask for advancing conservatives' policy preferences.
The debate intensified when Reagan came to power. His administration scrapped the ad hoc, patronage-style process previous presidents had used and began vetting potential nominees to find those who shared its philosophy. After the first George Bush became president in 1989, his legal team continued that approach.
His son's 2000 victory revived those vetting practices and -- with the participation of Mr. Bush's political adviser Karl Rove -- escalated them.
The White House ended the American Bar Association's traditional role in evaluating potential nominees' qualifications. But the administration had other help: the Federalist Society, whose size and influence has rapidly grown since the 1980s.
The society does not formally suggest or vet nominees. Rather, through its conferences and publications, it enables lawyers to identify themselves as committed to a conservative judicial ideology, said Steven M. Teles, the author of ''The Rise of the Conservative Legal Movement: The Battle for Control of the Law''
About 46 percent of Mr. Bush's appeals court judges are Federalist Society associates, according to an Alliance for Justice review.
A study in 2006 confirmed that the judges appointed by Republicans beginning with the Reagan administration are, as the Federalist Society's president, Eugene Meyer, put it, ''a very different type of judge.''
The study, overseen by Cass Sunstein, a Harvard Law School professor who is now an adviser to Mr. Obama, analyzed whether judges voted for a liberal or a conservative outcome in 20,000 appeals court cases. It found that as a group the appellate judges appointed by Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon and Gerald Ford voted for a conservative outcome in 52 percent of their cases. Mr. Clinton's judges had an identical record.
By contrast, the appeals court judges appointed by Reagan and the two Presidents Bush took the conservative position in 62 percent of cases. And that number was larger in certain ideologically charged areas, like abortion, affirmative action, environmental protection and whether states have sovereign immunity from federal lawsuits.
Sheldon Goldman, a professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, said recent Republican judges had consistently nudged the law rightward in those cases where they could exercise some discretion. Over time, Mr. Goldman said, this can result in ''enormous influence.''
That said, Mr. Goldman cautioned that not all of the recent Republican appointees were cut from the same cloth. Some are true movement conservatives, comparable to Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court, he said, but others are moderate conservatives like Justice Anthony M. Kennedy.
Still, Michael Greve, an American Enterprise Institute scholar and longtime figure in the conservative legal movement, noted that even when the judges considered by his faction to be ''truly spectacular appointments'' were outvoted, they still served as informal ''monitors'' by flagging decisions that conservatives on the Supreme Court might overrule.
One such example is Michael W. McConnell, a member of the 10th Circuit, in Denver, a former Reagan legal team member who went on to become a respected legal academic known for questioning court-imposed barriers between church and state.
Judge McConnell's role in registering objections was illustrated by a First Amendment case last year. A Utah city had placed a donated monument of the Ten Commandments in a public park, but it rejected another group that wanted to place a monument to the tenets of its faith, the ''Seven Aphorisms of Summum,'' in the same park. The Summum, a religious organization that promotes mummification, sued.
A trial judge and the appeals court ruled that a government might not discriminate between the two religious messages: If the city put the Judeo-Christian monument up, it also had to erect the Summum monument. Judge McConnell dissented, arguing that it should be fine for the city to accept only the monument whose message it favored.
A colleague accused Judge McConnell of taking an ''unprecedented and dangerous'' view that ignored ''well-established'' First Amendment principles. But the Supreme Court has accepted the city's appeal.
Another new conservative anchor is Jeffrey S. Sutton, on the Sixth Circuit, in Cincinnati. Before his appointment, Mr. Sutton, as state solicitor for Ohio, was a leading voice in the push to revive states' rights. He has continued that approach as a judge.
For example, Judge Sutton has opposed federal interference with death sentences imposed by state courts. Last summer, he called into question a ruling that ordered Ohio not to execute a mentally retarded man. A colleague, noting that the Supreme Court had outlawed the execution of retarded criminals, accused Judge Sutton of ''efforts to stir controversy where none exists.''
Still, Judge Sutton's support for states' rights is not without challenge. He led the 10-to-6 majority -- which included seven appointees of Mr. Bush -- that sided with the Republican Party this month after it sued Ohio's secretary of state, asking for a federal order changing the state's policy on verifying new voter registrations. The Supreme Court quickly reversed their ruling.
A third new conservative judge attracting attention is Brett M. Kavanaugh, a former legal aide to Mr. Bush. Last summer, Judge Kavanaugh, of the District of Columbia Circuit, dissented in a 2-to-1 decision upholding an accounting oversight board set up by Congress after the Enron scandal. He argued that because the board answered to the Securities and Exchange Commission instead of the president, it violated the Constitution under an expansive theory of executive power that was developed by the Reagan legal team and adopted by movement conservatives.
Still, even conservatives who generally share the same overall approach to the law have intellectual disagreements.
For example, Judge Janice Rogers Brown, a Bush appointee whose appointment was blocked for two years by Democrats, joined the opinion dismissing Judge Kavanaugh's concerns as an effort to ''create constitutional problems where there are none.''
Judge Brown, a former California Supreme Court judge who had given fiery libertarian speeches, disagreed with Judge Kavanaugh nine times out of 15 split decisions in which both participated, according to a New York Times review of the decisions.
Such disputes among conservatives demonstrate the difficulty of achieving major changes in legal doctrine. Despite the anguish expressed by liberals, ''the big surprise for a lot of movement conservatives is how little has been accomplished through that kind of sustained effort over a generation,'' said Bradford Berenson, who helped vet judges as an associate counsel in the Bush White House from 2001 to 2003.
Still, Mr. Berenson said, the movement might have already accomplished something sweeping, if invisible: slowing the creative exercise of judicial power that was generating many new rights a generation ago.
''Maybe the progress we've made in the courts is best measured by the unknowable crazy things the courts did not do, rather than the things the courts did,'' he said. ''The triumph of the conservative legal revolution is halting the progress of the liberal one.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Eugene Meyer, top right, of the Federalist Society, and, clockwise, three Republican-appointed judges, Janice Rogers Brown, Brett M. Kavanaugh and Michael W. McConnell.(PHOTOGRAPH BY CHAMBERS OF JUDGE MICHAEL MCCONNELL)
(PHOTOGRAPH BY JAMIE ROSE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
(PHOTOGRAPH BY DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
(PHOTOGRAPH BY CHIP SOMODEVILLA/REUTERS)(pg. A16) CHART: Federal Courts of Appeals, Then and Now: President Bush has appointed more than a third of the 164 judges on the federal Courts of Appeals who are expected to be actively serving on the day he leaves office. How the distribution of judges is projected to differ in January 2009 compared with when he took office in 2001.(pg. A16)
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October 29, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
With Time Running Short, Campaigns Engage in a Noisy Air War
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 19
LENGTH: 1260 words
DATELINE: NORFOLK, Va.
The campaigns of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain are making their last-ditch advertising pitches in a loud, televised shouting match over health care and taxes, terrorism and presidential readiness, trying to sway the few remaining undecided voters or to push wavering supporters to the polls on Tuesday.
Mr. McCain and the Republican Party are ending their advertising campaign with a blistering run of commercials that use images of tanks, Islamic extremists, and stormy seas to paint Mr. Obama as a risky choice in dangerous times.
In a bid to win over undecided ''security moms'' who watch programs like ''The View'' and ''The Oprah Winfrey Show,'' one of Mr. McCain's most widely shown commercials this week features recent comments from Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Mr. Obama's running mate, warning of ''an international crisis'' that will ''test the mettle of this guy'' (namely, Mr. Obama).
The commercials are part of an insurgent advertising campaign by Mr. McCain, who has redirected dwindling resources to vital parts of critical states like this one, surgically picking spots to confront an unprecedented television onslaught by Mr. Obama that dwarfs Mr. McCain's effort almost everywhere else.
Mr. McCain has had help recently from the independent advertising unit of the Republican National Committee, which embarked upon a $26 million campaign in the final weeks of the election, including efforts to buttress Mr. McCain in reliably Republican states like West Virginia and Montana.
But even with that help, Mr. McCain is in many ways shouting into the roar of a locomotive. The nearly $21 million that Mr. Obama spent on advertisements last week was nearly twice what Mr. McCain and the Republican party had spent in the same period.
Mr. Obama, with virtually limitless resources, is ending his advertising campaign with a dizzying array of commercials striking mostly economic arguments: A spot running heavily here promotes Mr. Obama's tax cuts (''A nurse earning 60 grand?'' an announcer says, ''You get a thousand bucks under Obama -- under McCain, just $150''); spots in Colorado and Pennsylvania accuse Mr. McCain of helping companies that ''ship jobs overseas,'' and a commercial running heavily in retiree-rich Florida, falsely accuses Mr. McCain of proposing large cuts to Medicare.
Mr. Obama will further flex his advertising muscle on Wednesday with a half-hour infomercial in prime time on four broadcast networks: Fox, NBC, CBS and Univision. In the program, some of which was reviewed by The New York Times, Mr. Obama speaks directly to the camera at times while sharing the stories of families struggling in the current economy.
Unable to match the Obama juggernaut, Mr. McCain is making a last stand in towns he needs to win, like this one, where he and the Republican National Committee have combined resources to advertise as heavily as Mr. Obama, who has not needed similar help from his party. The situation is similar in Cincinnati; Harrisburg, Pa.; and Richmond, Va., which are among the places where Mr. McCain has tried to match Mr. Obama.
There have been consequences for Mr. McCain, who has had to reduce his advertising in swing states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin so he can advertise in states he must win, like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Analysts say he has little choice. ''If you're the McCain campaign, there are two columns right now in your thinking: places you have to win and places you need to win,'' said Evan Tracey, the chief operative officer of CMAG, a company that monitors political advertising. Translating that into laymen's terms, Mr. Tracey said, ''You don't have to eat, but you need to breathe.''
''There's no White House without Virginia,'' he said. ''So it doesn't matter what happens in Wisconsin or New Hampshire if he doesn't win there.''
And so, while the advertising war can feel awfully lopsided for Mr. Obama in the most expensive cities to advertise in, like Miami, Philadelphia and Washington (which reaches Northern Virginia), viewers in Cincinnati, Harrisburg and here in Norfolk are in the middle of a full-scale, spot-for-spot advertising war.
The battle starts with the big morning news programs, runs through ''The Young and the Restless,'' ''The View'' and ''The Oprah Winfrey Show,'' ''Jeopardy'' and ''Wheel of Fortune,'' the late local news and, finally, ''Late Show With David Letterman'' and ''The Tonight Show With Jay Leno.''
Senior strategists in both campaigns said in interviews this week that they had identified women, specifically the so-called ''security moms'' who are worried about national defense, as a crucial part of the undecided vote.
That both campaigns have tried hard to reach them this year is underscored by the list of their top shows compiled by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project: ''The Oprah Winfrey Show'' is the top, non-news program for the advertising of both campaigns, followed by programs like ''Regis & Kelly,'' ''Rachel Ray'' (one of the few programs that has included more advertisements from Mr. McCain than from Mr. Obama) and ''The View.''
On Tuesday, just before ''The View'' began here, Mr. McCain showed a spot featuring Mr. Biden's quotation from a recent fund-raiser, ''Mark my words, it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama.''
As Mr. Biden speaks, the spot plays ominous music and shows threatening images of the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez; and Islamic extremists in black arm bands holding machine guns and marching.
The advertisement is in line with two being run by the Republican National Committee: One shows the presidential chair in the Oval Office as an announcer says, ''Barack Obama: He hasn't had executive experience, this crisis would be Obama's first crisis, in this chair.'' The other shows a storm-swept sea as an announcer says, ''Some now say this storm cannot get worse, our nation is so off course that Barack Obama's quick rise to power and inexperience should not matter. But what if the storm does get worse, with someone who's untested at the helm?''
Speaking of that line of attack, Brad Todd, who is running the Republican Party effort, said, ''We have settled in on that difference.''
But, in an example of how Mr. Obama's resources have allowed him to meet every charge, just before ''The Oprah Winfrey Show'' began, his campaign responded with a commercial in which a narrator said, ''John McCain's playing with audiotapes, selectively editing Joe Biden's words.'' The spot goes on to include the rest of Mr. Biden's quote: ''They're going to find out this guy's got a spine of steel.''
Similarly, throughout the day, local stations here featured a McCain advertisement with various voters saying, ''I am Joe,'' a reference to Mr. Obama's recent conversation with ''Joe the Plumber,'' in which Mr. Obama said his tax plan would help ''spread the wealth.''
''Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?'' one of the characters asks in the advertisement.
But that spot is up against one from Mr. Obama showing his Web site's tax-cut calculator and the savings he says middle-class families would get under his plan.
That advertisement is among Mr. Obama's heaviest this week, apparently adding to what several polls have found as an advantage Mr. Obama holds over Mr. McCain ontaxes. Still, it is one that Mr. McCain's campaign hopes will dwindle with six more days of counterprogramming in crucial markets like this one.
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GRAPHIC: CHART: Three Week's Worth of Campaign Advertisements: A New York Times analysis of the images in campaign advertisements that ran within the last three weeks found that both candidates show their opponents nearly as often as they show themselves.(Source: CMAG)
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October 29, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Obama Infomercial, a Closing Argument to the Everyman
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 19
LENGTH: 648 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
Senator Barack Obama will use his prime-time half-hour infomercial on Wednesday night to make what is effectively a closing argument to a national audience of millions. At times he will speak directly into the camera about his 20-month campaign, at others he will highlight everyday voters, their everyday troubles, and his plans to address them.
Mr. Obama's campaign agreed to provide The New York Times with a minute-long trailer for the 30-minute program, which is to run on four broadcast networks at 8 p.m. It will be the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate has bought network time, in prime time, for a prolonged campaign commercial.
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: ''We've seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that's wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.''
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: ''We've been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I've traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.''
Jim Margolis, Mr. Obama's senior advertising strategist, said the program would then go on to feature ''the stories of four different Americans, or American families, and kind of what they're confronting.''
He said the stories would highlight ''the challenges people are facing and what we should do in terms of solutions.'' He said Mr. Obama would also share the story of his mother, ''who struggled through her bout with breast cancer and the difficulty she had with her insurance company, to help viewers understand why his health care reform program is what it is.''
It will also have a live component, featuring Mr. Obama at a rally in Florida. The infomercial has been under production for weeks in the Virginia office of Mark Putnam, whose firm, Murphy-Putnam, is part of the Obama advertising team.
The program is to be shown on NBC, CBS, Fox, Univision, MSNBC and two cable networks that cater to African-Americans, BET and TV One. Ross Perot, the last presidential candidate to run similar programming, broadcast eight long infomercials to an average of 13 million viewers, with one of them getting 16.5 million viewers.
Costing the campaign more than $3 million, the infomercial is the ultimate reflection of Mr. Obama's spending flexibility. Mr. McCain, with far less money in the bank, has been unable to produce a similar commercial.
The McCain campaign has seized on the advertisement as excessive, with Mr. McCain pointing to reports that Mr. Obama's infomercial would bump back the World Series on Fox by 15 minutes. ''No one will delay the World Series with an infomercial when I'm president,'' he said, in Hershey, Pa.
(Fox executives have said that they, and not the Obama campaign, had initially asked Major League Baseball to move the start of Wednesday's game to 8:35 p.m. from 8:20, to make way for his infomercial. But as it turns out, such a delay was not necessary anyway; none of the World Series games has started before 8:30, and two started after 8:35.)
For its part, Mr. Obama's campaign said it was not worried about turning off viewers.
''Many people have 150 channels; they've got plenty of other choices,'' Mr. Margolis said. ''Or they can drop into a video game.'' Then again, Mr. Obama is advertising in video games, too.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Senator Barack Obama at a rally at Widener University in Chester, Pa., Tuesday. A preview of his 30-minute-long infomercial was heavy on Americana.(PHOTOGRAPH BY DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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USA TODAY
October 29, 2008 Wednesday
FINAL EDITION
Californians go to 'war' over proposed gay-marriage ban
BYLINE: William M. Welch
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 7A
LENGTH: 794 words
LOS ANGELES -- There is little suspense over the presidential race here, but a ballot initiative to overturn gay marriage is garnering the attention of politicians, activists and big spenders.
Proposition 8, which would amend California's constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman, was put on the ballot after a state Supreme Court ruling in May said a ban on gay marriage was unconstitutional.
The ruling triggered a rush to the altar by gay and lesbian couples, including many from other states seeking legal recognition of their unions. That prompted what has become a pricey and exuberant battle.
"This is the most expensive cultural war in America, ever," says John Duran, a West Hollywood City Council member and fundraiser for opponents of Prop 8. "It's a cultural war over the role of gay and lesbian Americans in California."
Opponents of same-sex marriages are determined to trump the court at the ballot box and have unleashed a massive campaign of organizing, television ads and fundraising.
Their early success at fundraising forced gay-marriage advocates to step up their own campaign efforts, and now the two sides are on track to spend more than $60 million, about evenly divided. The issue has made impromptu demonstrations a common sight across Southern California, as people from both sides wave signs at motorists from suburban street corners.
California's record as a trend-setter for the rest of the nation means the implications go beyond the borders of a state that is home to roughly 12% of the nation. While similar issues face voters in Florida and Arizona, both sides believe victory here is of paramount importance to shape public attitudes about same-sex marriage nationally under the next administration.
"This is the second-biggest race in the country," says Sonja Eddings Brown, spokeswoman for the Yes on 8 campaign. "And the impact of Proposition 8 is going to set a precedent for the United States of America."
Despite a tendency to elect Republican movie stars as governor, California has become reliably Democratic in presidential races. President Bush lost here twice, by 11 percentage points in 2000 and 10 in 2004.
This year, Republican John McCain has campaigned little in the state even though it offers the largest prize of all the states, 55 electoral votes.
An Oct. 25 Rasmussen Reports poll showed Obama leading 61%-34%.
California TV viewers have seen a deluge of ads on Prop 8. Ads supporting the amendment warn that schoolchildren "will be taught about gay marriage unless we vote yes on Prop 8."
The other side responds with commercials featuring the state's top educator, Superintendent Jack O'Connell, saying the issue has nothing to do with schools or kids. "Our schools aren't required to teach anything about marriage, and using kids to lie about that is shameful," he says.
The Yes on 8 campaign points to education officials who feel it should be taught. And it cites the example of Massachusetts, where the state Supreme Court legalized gay marriage in 2004. A federal appeals court ruled in February that the state can deny parents the right to remove their second-graders from classes that required reading books such as King and King, which is about two princes marrying.
The charges have stirred grass-roots campaigning by people who aren't normally involved in campaigns. William Adams, 51, of Irvine has festooned his Chevy pickup with hand-drawn wooden signs urging a vote for Prop 8 and declaring it a matter of parents' rights to control what kids are exposed to.
Adams says he fears his church, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, could be sued for discrimination for not recognizing gay couples.
"We're not afraid of the homosexual movement; We are afraid of the government," Adams says.
He has planted more than 50 yard signs and led groups of others in knocking on doors for votes for Prop 8. The door-to-door canvassing, as well as telephone voter-turnout efforts, are organized by his Mormon ward, or local church, Adams says.
Brown, the spokeswoman for Yes on 8, estimates 40% or more of the $28 million the group reported raising by Oct. 18 had come from Mormon donors. But she says the coalition to overturn gay marriage is broad and even includes groups that tend to vote Democratic.
"We expect turnout in the African-American community to be an asset to us," she says.
Geoff Kors, a member of the executive committee of the No on 8 campaign, says, "Every poll suggests this is a dead heat."
Brown hopes that after Tuesday, gay marriage will be history in California. "We really are at a cultural crossroads in America where we are going to be forced one way or another to decide whether the rights of children or the rights of gay adults are going to come first," Brown says.
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USA TODAY
October 29, 2008 Wednesday
FINAL EDITION
A campaign of living history;
The 2008 presidential contest will go down as one of the most interesting, and most important, races of at least the past half-century. Why? Major crises, compelling debates and strong -- indeed, historic -- candidates.
BYLINE: Sandy Grady
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 11A
LENGTH: 838 words
Whether it was the hard times, serious national mood or a superb cast, 2008 will go down as a year of great political theater.
At this stage in past elections, we've all heard pseudo sophisticates gripe, "This is so endless and boring; wake me when it's over." Or jaded malcontents grumble, "Out of 300 million people, couldn't we get better candidates than these bums?"
Not this time.
As someone who covered presidential campaigns for three decades, traveling with candidates and interviewing voters, the 2008 election has crackled with the highest level of intensity in my memory.
Whether Republican nominee John McCain will defy the doomsday pollsters or Democratic candidate Barack Obama will launch a historic landslide win, the political season that began in Iowa and New Hampshire has been a vivid show -- diverse actors, weird plots, dumbfounded pundits. Only hindsight will tell whether 2008 was a game-changing election in the way that Roosevelt-Hoover in 1932 led to the New Deal, Kennedy-Nixon in 1960 intensified the Cold War, or Reagan-Carter in 1980 began a Republican dominance.
But there's no doubt that millions have felt a heightened sense of importance: This time it really matters. One clear reason is the gloom of impending crisis -- two wars, the global economy and U.S. stock market in belly-churning tumble, and 85% of Americans saying we're on the "wrong track."
Voters are energized
You only have to look around to see the evidence. Early voters swarming in lines as though free Super Bowl tickets were being dished out. New voter registrations in record numbers. In states I visited this fall, I saw a back-to-the-old-days array of yard signs and car stickers for Obama and McCain. It looked like the '60s. And campaign rallies are drawing monster 100,000-people crowds.
Another yardstick of 2008's political intensity is the way the campaign has infiltrated pop culture. Saturday Night Live skits are a hot item (who was real, Sarah Palin or Tina Fey?), Oprah, Comedy Central, David Letterman and Jay Leno are thriving on political hijinks. CNN, Fox and MSNBC are politics 24/7. And, of course, the Internet has become a Babble Machine for argument and money raising.
Sure, it's an American art form to sneer at politicians, their hypocrisy and cupidity. But even at the beginning of the 2008 campaign, the level of competitors was exceptionally high -- Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards and Obama for the Democrats; Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and McCain for the Republicans.
When McCain and Obama fought their way through that maze, the skepticism that we didn't get the best two Oval Office candidates quickly faded.
But a word here for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Her admirable, up-and-down persistence in the primaries and debates against Obama was to my mind the most stirring drama of 2008. The topsy-turvy narrative of Obama vs. Clinton was more fierce than most recent general elections.
A historic year for women
Give Clinton credit for lighting fires, especially among women, that have endured through the fall campaigns. And far beyond.
Nor should we ignore the cultural force of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, who spiraled from "who?" to "wow!" to "whoa!" in public view. Whether she turns out to be a disaster or bonus for McCain, Palin has been a shot of Tabasco to 2008 politics.
Happily, this has been a chaotic election year when conventional wisdom and print and television pundits and polls got blindsided. Remember when McCain was too old, too broke and too disorganized to become the nominee? Or when Obama was too inexperienced, just a showboat orator, sure to be doomed by secretly racist voters?
Voters kept shoving the professionals aside and taking over the election.
Sure, there is a queasy excess -- too much campaign money sloshing around, too many TV ads, too many polls constantly taking temperatures in every state. But by the standards of other years -- the Willie Horton ad in 1988, Swift-Boating in 2004 -- it wasn't an excessively dirty campaign. For that we could partially thank McCain, whose sense of honor forbade employing racial overtones against Obama.
Nor can we complain that we haven't gotten enough policy detail. We were inundated by "my plan and his plan" in three presidential debates. Never mind that Congress will decide the surviving plan. What we really gauged on TV was the candidates' personas -- McCain aggressive behind the smiling mask, Obama quick-witted and unflappable.
When all the bluster and bloviating fade, maybe we'll remember only snippets from the TV blur: "Lipstick on a pig," "Joe the plumber," "terrorist," "socialist," "the real America," "that one," "I am not George Bush." But I hope we'll remember 2008 for an electric, engaged election, to me the most dynamic campaign in a half-century.
In a perilous year, people took charge and made their own history.
Sandy Grady has covered eight presidential campaigns. He is a member of USA TODAY's board of contributors.
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The Reliable Source
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It May Be Time to Drop a Few Balls Around Town
Mothball those ball gowns! Washington's black-tie blowouts are going the way of your 401(k). Monday's gala for the Shakespeare Theatre's Harman Center for the Arts took a hit -- and that's only the beginning of what looks like a seismic shift on the charity scene.
The $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser (honoring Chita Rivera, choreographers Rennie Harris and Peter Martins, and benefactor Sidney Harman) raised almost $900,000, but fell short of the $1.2 million goal -- even though most of the money was raised before the economy went south. Individual patrons were "very, very generous," but corporate donations fell off, co-chair Beth Dozoretz said. "We worked very hard. Usually these things happen with just a push. This was a lot of asking." To save money, designer David Stark filled the National Building Museum with white ribbon streamers and candles instead of flowers; organizers hired a DJ instead of a band.
Doesn't bode well for D.C.'s spring fundraisers, which will have to fight over donors or downscale dramatically. And what does this all mean for January's inauguration? Still too many of those overcrowded, underwhelming fancy balls, no doubt, but nothing like the $40 million celebrations of 2000 and 2004.
He Might Not Be Political, but He Knows the Score
Republicans and Democrats are increasingly singing the same tune -- at least in their campaign ads.
From his studio in Clarendon, composer Todd Hahn provides the soundtrack for candidates across the country. He's worked for both teams over the years and says their tastes are slowly converging.
The GOP sound -- like the ads he scored for John McCain in 2000 -- used to be "very heroic, very cinematic," with studio-synthesized French horns and timpani, "big, dense, orchestral." The Dems leaned toward a "Bruce Springsteen sound" with guitars. Now everyone likes an acoustic, "organic" sound, he says.
"The music is the subliminal delivery agent of the message," Hahn says. "They're like 30-second film scores, designed to tweak people's emotions good or bad."
For a positive Obama ad ("Three Bedroom Ranch"), Hahn scored talk of the candidate's economic plan with twinkly soft-rock. For a negative one ("Book") blasting McCain's plan, Hahn laid down agitated rhythms and an ominous whoosh he calls "ethereal wash."
As for Hahn's own politics, "I'm right up the middle," he said. "I failed all my government courses in high school. I still don't know a lot about it."
This Just In . . .
· Ted Kennedy returned to his D.C. home last night -- his first time in the city since July. "He thought this would be a good time to be back," said spokesman Anthony Coley. "He may pop into the office at some point." Kennedy, battling brain cancer, will stay until Thanksgiving; undecided if he'll join the post-election Senate session.
· Libertarian Bob Barr -- who brags he's the only presidential candidate with a concealed-firearm permit (he holsters a .45 Glock) -- yesterday offered a "new, in the box, hard to find, 12 gauge Mossberg Model 590A pump shotgun" to the donor who contributes the highest sum by midnight tonight.
End Quote
"If some thug breaks into my home, I can use my roundhouse kick. But I prefer he look down the barrel of my gun."
-- "Black-belt patriot" Chuck Norris urging voters to seek out gun-rights candidates in his first-ever NRA ad, which rolled out yesterday in 10 battleground states. The Mike Huckabee supporter recently wrote that John McCain won his vote by picking Sarah Palin as his running mate.
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Obama's Ad 'Roadblock' Gets Traction
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
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Univision, BET and TV One are joining CBS, NBC and Fox to carry Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's paid half-hour TV address tonight -- just six days before the election.
And while MSNBC also will join in the fun, CNN reports that it took a pass, and Fox News Channel confirms it wasn't even asked to the party.
ABC, the only major broadcaster not carrying the infomercial after the network hemmed and hawed so long the Obama camp moved on, is weirdly being rewarded with a Wednesday one-on-one with the candidate for its evening newscast, which will air shortly before "The Barack Obama Show" takes over prime time at 8 p.m.
But, if watching Charlie Gibson peer over his skinny glasses to ask Obama what the Bush Doctrine means is your idea of some kind of not fun, you can instead catch Obama's infomercial postmortem at 11 p.m. on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show," where he will appear via satellite as a giant talking head.
In between "The Barack Obama Show" and the Comedy Central postmortem, Obama's GOP rival, John McCain, also will have a chance to spin the infomercial -- on CNN's "Larry King Live."
CNN was approached by Obama's campaign about taking tonight's time buy, but unlike MSNBC took a pass. "We'd rather use our air to continue to cover the campaign, candidates and issues like we always do from all points of view with the best political team on television," CNN said in a statement. Whatev.
In other Barack Obama Is Taking Over Wednesday news, Mother Nature cast her vote Monday, when she not only rained out Game 5 of the World Series after 5 1/2 innings -- the first time a World Series game wasn't played to completion on the same day -- but kept up the downpour so long it forced Major League Baseball to announce that Game 5 would not be wrapped up until tonight.
What's expected to be a very short night of baseball -- maybe just a three-inning "game" -- pretty much ensures Obama's speech will air on the three major broadcast networks at the start of prime time on the West Coast as well as the East Coast, shoring up the desired "roadblock" programming effect.
Originally, the Fox broadcast network accepted the time buy only after Major League Baseball agreed to postpone the first pitch of Game 6 of the World Series by about 15 minutes to enable Fox to air the 30-minute time buy at 8. Fox told Obama's camp it could run the speech at 8 in the Eastern time zone but had to wait until after the game to air the message on the West Coast because of its contractual obligations to Major League Baseball.
Fox execs expect Game 5 Part Deux to end well before 8 p.m. Pacific time, which means they can run the Obama buy at 8 in that time zone.
* * *
The World Series face-off between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays on Fox couldn't distract enough viewers from CBS's procedural crime dramas, keeping the eye network at the top of the ratings heap for a fourth consecutive week.
Here's a look at the week's most and least:
WINNERS
"The Cleaner." A&E renews its Benjamin Bratt intervention series, which, according to Nielsen Media Research, is the most engaging cable show among Democrats and Republicans alike.
"Ghost Whisperer." Blog chatter about ominous-ish things that may be happening to Melinda's husband scared up more than 10 million viewers -- the CBS show's biggest audience in nearly three years.
"Life." When NBC's sophomore do-over series showed signs of life, including rampant DVR-viewing, the network plucked it from certain death on Friday and sent it to the relative safety of Wednesday.
"Mad Men." Some critics can't stand this period drama's 1960s pacing, but nearly 1.8 million viewers showed up for the second-season finale on AMC Sunday -- compared with 926,000 viewers for the first season's wrap-up.
"D.L. Hughley Breaks the News." Debut of CNN's newsedy show, featuring former Bush press secretary Scott McClellan's latest Dumping on the GOP act, attracted 1.5 million viewers Saturday night. That's 72 percent more people than had watched CNN's actual news show in the time slot this year.
"Gary Unmarried." CBS's latest exercise in Male Pattern Optimism -- doughy, dumb-ish guy scores the hot chick -- logs its best numbers to date, 7.6 million viewers, mostly because Fox did not air "Bones" that night, driving its chicks to "Gary." CBS rewarded the Wednesday farm-team sitcom with a Monday night tryout.
"Dancing With the Stars." ABC scrubs Ashton Kutcher's reality series "Opportunity Knocks," replaces it with more granny on the dance floor in age-inappropriate costumes -- a.k.a. "Dancing With the Stars" recap show starring Cloris Leachman -- and the time slot jumps from 5 million viewers to 9 million.
LOSERS
"Stylista." "America's Next Top Model" welcomes new "Stylista" with a lead-in audience of 4.4 million; "Stylista" fumbles all but 2.4 million of the viewers, which is barely better than CW was doing in the time period with repeats of the next generation of "90210."
World Series. With the Tampa Bay Rays in the mix, Saturday's game rained out until 10 p.m. and Monday's game carried over two nights due to rain, this year's series is on track to be the lowest-rated ever, though even in its depressed state, the World Series still managed to attract as many as 15.5 million viewers on Sunday.
"The Ex List." "Ghost Whisperer" delivers a lead-in advantage of 4 million to the newcomer, which, by its second half-hour, had fallen to fourth place in its Friday time slot. CBS yanked "Ex List" because it had only a narrow, young-female appeal. Maybe NBC wants it.
"Lipstick Jungle." NBC's other sophomore do-over series struggles on Wednesday, causing the network to send it to Friday, where all chick dramedies go to die. RIP, "Lipstick Jungle."
The week's 10 most watched programs: CBS's "CSI"; ABC's "Dancing With the Stars"; CBS's "NCIS"; ABC's "Dancing With the Stars" results show and "Desperate Housewives"; Fox's World Series Game 4; CBS's "The Mentalist," "Criminal Minds" and "Two and a Half Men"; and Fox's World Series Game 1.
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Met 2 Edition
How They Would Change Health Care;
McCain's Proposal for High-Risk Coverage Is Similar to a Program in Minnesota
BYLINE: Amy Goldstein; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
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DATELINE: MINNEAPOLIS
When Diane Derichs's husband was retiring from his assembly-line job making fruit bars for ConAgra Foods, the couple invited over an insurance agent to help her find a health plan.
A part-time hairdresser, Derichs, at 58, was too young for the Medicare that her husband, Vernold, could already get. Sitting at their kitchen table in a St. Paul suburb, Derichs told the agent about the back surgery she had once needed for her scoliosis, the bad tendons in her feet, the lupus that causes painful sores on her skin.
Blue Cross Blue Shield, the agent discovered, wouldn't accept her. Nor would Mutual of Omaha. Or any other company he checked. "It's like, whammo, don't get sick," Derichs said. "As soon as I said 'lupus,' it was just like: 'Red flag. Sorry, can't do anything.' "
And so, on the agent's advice, she signed up for the Minnesota Comprehensive Health Association, a last-ditch chance at coverage that the state offers to those the insurance industry does not want.
How well this nonprofit corporation -- and similar ones set up by nearly three dozen other states -- can serve insurance castaways such as Derichs is a test of Sen. John McCain's road map for the nation's health-care system. High-risk pools, as such arrangements are known, are a linchpin of the Republican presidential nominee's thinking about how to make health insurance more plentiful and less expensive.
If McCain is elected president next week, he has said, he would work to remove the tax preference for company health benefits and offer Americans tax credits to put toward any health plan they choose. He wants to let people buy health plans from insurance companies anywhere in the country, preempting state regulations that spell out whom insurance carriers must cover and what kinds of benefits they must provide.
McCain acknowledges that such a free-market climate would inevitably freeze out some people with serious medical problems who are looking for insurance on their own. So he is calling for a guaranteed access plan, a federal effort to share the cost of high-risk pools and dramatically expand their reach -- from fewer than 200,000 Americans in state plans today to perhaps 5 million.
A philosophical difference between the presidential candidates over health insurance comes down to this: Given that relatively few people have extremely expensive medical problems, is it better to require insurance companies to include them with everyone else, as Democrat Barack Obama favors, or to separate them, as McCain prefers, in insurance pools just for them?
Among the high-risk pools in 34 states, Minnesota's is the oldest, largest and, many believe, the most successful. "It just seems to work," said Doug Holtz-Eakin, senior policy adviser to McCain.
Created in a wave of health-care changes here in the late 1970s, the Minnesota Comprehensive Health Association (MCHA) had a membership of 28,000 last year, equaling nearly 7 percent of the state's uninsured population. Small as that share was, it far exceeded any other state's, according to the National Association of State Comprehensive Insurance Plans.
The price of belonging to MCHA is lower than in most states, set one-fifth above the cost of the average individual insurance policy in Minnesota. Like all such programs, MCHA requires a waiting period for new members before it will pay for treatment of medical problems they already had -- but the six-month wait here excludes drugs and is shorter than in some places.
Its finances are strained and getting worse, but less so than in other states. California's high-risk pool is so strapped that it put a limit on enrollment this year and lowered the maximum it would spend on anyone's treatment. Tennessee's pool has had to eliminate low-income subsidies for new members. Florida's pool has not let in anyone since 1991.
The Maryland Health Insurance Plan, the only high-risk pool in the Washington area, has been growing so fast that it needed to raise the fees on hospitals that help pay for the program and require new members to wait longer for coverage of existing illnesses -- or pay extra for it.
Here in Minneapolis, Lynn R. Gruber, MCHA's president, said: "We treat them like gold. It's all we do, focus on these chronically ill members, what their needs are." Members get discounts on specialty drugs. Those who are particularly sick get letters or phone calls coaching them on how best to manage their ailments.
Members must be rejected by at least one insurance company to join. Some come and go from the program, but many find it a long-term insurance haven.
Betty Clark joined 22 years ago when she left a corporate job to start her own business auditing insurance carriers for businesses. She was in her late 30s with no major health problems and was startled to be rejected for coverage because she weighed 190 pounds.
Clark, now 59, pays nearly $500 a month in premiums. MCHA has covered a hysterectomy, spine surgery, two stents in her heart and diabetes treatment. "Without MCHA, I never would have my company," she said.
Still, even MCHA's most ardent supporters believe a risk pool is not the best solution for those who are hard to insure. "It is not a panacea. . . . We need to be moving in the direction of universal coverage," said Gruber, who has run MCHA for 18 years. "No one should be rejected because of their health conditions. Our federal government has failed us . . . if we are still here in five or 10 years."
Kristin Flaten, one of two consumer representatives on the board of directors, said: "The most vocal people in MCHA are mad about being in MCHA. They don't like being told they are high risk. They don't like paying the extra money. There is a perceived unfairness they are being treated like that, and the insurance companies are getting away with it."
No one in Minnesota can say for certain how many people who need MCHA stay away because of the price or the waiting period. But the American Cancer Society says that only a tiny fraction of the more than 100 Minnesotans it has referred to the program because they were rejected by insurance companies ever signed up, according to Stephen Finan, the society's associate director of policy.
As another sign of the financial burden, an increasing number of MCHA's members lately have been choosing to pay more out of their pockets -- deductibles as high as $10,000 -- in order to have less expensive monthly premiums.
Some cannot afford MCHA at all. LaVonne Kees, 59, a widow in the suburb of St. Louis Park, was diagnosed with Stage IV colon cancer in August 2007. She was still getting chemotherapy when she was laid off in June from her job as a distribution clerk for a hospital supply company.
Along with her job, she lost the United HealthCare plan that had cost her $22.50 a month. She went on COBRA, a federal arrangement that lets displaced workers temporarily keep group health benefits, but she lost that coverage in a dispute over when her second premium was due. Her small retirement account made her not quite poor enough for Medicaid, so she called MCHA.
The woman on the phone told her it would cost $500 to $600 a month. "I thought, 'Oh, really?' " Kees said. Living on $900 unemployment checks, with rent and car payments, "there is no way I could pay that." After her last chemotherapy treatment, she got a $26,000 bill. She canceled scans in September that would have determined whether she needed more chemotherapy. She canceled an appointment with her oncologist. "As of right now," she said, "everything is kind of at a standstill."
High as they are, members' premiums cover only half of MCHA's costs. The leftover losses -- absorbed by fees on some insurance companies -- have been growing fast. They more than doubled in six years, to $120 million in 2007, and are rising this year more quickly than expected, with recent estimates close to $150 million.
"I don't know how you run a thing with a $120, $130 million loss a year. It seems to be getting a bit large," said MCHA's board chairwoman, Kathy Mock, who is also vice president for public affairs at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Minnesota.
As the program is getting more expensive, fewer insurers are helping to pay for it because of a federal legal quirk that exempts self-insured companies. As a result, the losses are being spread among a shrinking group of commercial insurance carriers. Gruber called it ironic that the Minnesota government in 2005 became self-insured for state workers, so even it no longer chips in.
McCain has said that, under his guaranteed access plan, the federal government would cover half the cost of such pools, with the rest paid by states and the insurance industry. In the spring, Holtz-Eakin estimated that the federal share might be $7 billion or $8 billion a year. "It's going to be twice that, realistically," he said in a recent interview.
Minnesota has been getting a small amount of federal help lately, through grants Congress approved to subsidize people with low incomes. The money, though, has been unpredictable. MCHA recently decided to let people with slightly higher incomes qualify for that help, only to discover that its grant this year was less than the last one. That means each eligible person will get a smaller check.
In such an environment, members such as Derichs are grateful for the coverage but resentful of its price. MCHA has helped Derichs pay for a hernia repair this spring and the expensive drugs she takes for lupus. She is scheduled for a second foot surgery next month.
Yet her monthly premium has gone from $389 when she joined two years ago, to $439 when she turned 60 last winter, to $506 with a rate increase in June. "Oh, man, it's almost too much," Derichs said.
"I guess the thing that kind of saddens me is, we were people who did put money aside for retirement. We weren't planning to go to Hawaii or Florida for six months -- just a comfortable retirement," Derichs said. Paying for MCHA "is a real struggle. It's almost to the point people say, to hell with it. . . . But our priorities at this point are, yes, we need health insurance, because we have health situations. Right now, we can't take that chance."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Nikki Kahn -- The Washington Post
IMAGE; By Melina Mara -- The Washington Post; With a week left until the election, the presidential candidates campaigned in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Democrat Barack Obama greets supporters at a rally in the Philadelphia suburb of Chester, while 90 miles away, Republican John McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, are cheered in Hershey. The economy has become the focus for both campaigns. Story, A6.
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Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself;
Skeptics Challenge Assumptions Made
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz; Washington Post Staff Writer
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Could the polls be wrong?
Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.
"We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable," Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.
Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. And pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago -- ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day.
Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.
"I have been wondering for weeks" whether the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race, said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota. Borrowing from lingo popularized by former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Schier asked what are the "unknown unknowns" about polling this year: For instance, is the sizable cohort of people who don't respond to pollsters more Republican-leaning this year, perhaps because they don't want to admit to a pollster that they are not supporting the "voguish" Obama?
If so, that could mean the polls are routinely understating McCain's support. "I have no evidence that this is happening," Schier said, but he added: "I'm still thinking there's a 25 percent chance that this is a squeaker race and McCain pulls it out."
Other experts are less uncertain. Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the Center for American Progress and the Century Foundation, said averaging the daily polls points to "pretty much the same thing -- that the race is pretty stable and that Obama has a stable lead. Typically, when you are this far ahead at this point, it's hard to lose."
"It is very unlikely that we are going to get surprised by a last-minute movement," said John R. Petrocik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Missouri. "Obama has been running six to eight points ahead for the better part of two weeks, and it's hard to imagine that turning around."
The McCain campaign's case that the race is closer than many polls suggest appears to rest largely on the proposition that the composition of the electorate this year will closely resemble that in 2004.
McCain pollsters do anticipate that turnout could be even higher this year than the robust turnout four years ago, but they also expect that Democratic gains among African American voters and younger voters will be offset by higher turnout among more Republican-leaning voters. They also assert the race is tightening in battleground states, with independent voters increasingly receptive to McCain.
"As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday," McCain pollster Bill McInturff wrote in a memo released last night by the campaign. Obama officials voiced confidence in their ultimate victory but said they have always expected the election to be close.
To buttress its point of view, the McCain team points to results reported yesterday by the Gallup organization, whose daily tracking poll showed Obama up 49 percent to 47 percent using Gallup's traditional turnout model, which assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections. Obama has a larger lead, seven points, using a model that allows a higher presence of first-time voters.
A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday shows a 15-point lead for Obama, a result based on relaxed criteria for when to consider an African American respondent a likely voter, said Andrew Kohut, president of the center. He said the poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, "we've consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that."
Kohut said several variables signal Obama has not convinced voters, such as a large number of respondents in the Pew poll who see the Illinois Democrat as a risky choice. But Kohut said the odds are against "a huge shift" in voter preferences by Election Day.
Some polls show Obama with a healthy lead even without an assumed surge in African American and young voters. Obama's seven-point lead in the Washington Post-ABC News poll is not premised on disproportionately higher turnout among those demographic groups. The poll's turnout model currently shows that 10 percent of likely voters are black, compared with the 11 percent who voted in 2004, according to the network exit poll. Voters younger than 30 make up 16 percent of the Post-ABC sample, little different from the 17 percent four years ago.
Post polling director Jon Cohen said the survey designers "carefully consider a range of likely voter scenarios and use our best judgment. Our polling throughout the campaign has been on target and, we believe, helpful to understanding what is really happening. I hope it stays that way."
He noted that to address "one potential pitfall," The Post and ABC conduct interviews with a random selection of those who have only cellular phone service alongside a traditional random sample of those with residential phone service. One recent criticism of current polling has been that it does not accurately capture the sentiments of those who primarily use cellphones.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Michael Williamson -- The Washington Post; Sen. Barack Obama greets supporters during a rally at James Madison University in Harrisonburg, Va. An array of polls yesterday showed the Democratic presidential nominee leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points.
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October 29, 2008 Wednesday 12:00 PM EST
Election 2008 Key States: Ohio
BYLINE: Mark Naymik, Cleveland Plain Dealer Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2070 words
HIGHLIGHT: Cleveland Plain Dealer political reporter Mark Naymik was online Wednesday, Oct. 29 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential race in Ohio -- the deciding state in the 2004 election -- and to discuss the competitive House races in the state.
Cleveland Plain Dealer political reporter Mark Naymik was online Wednesday, Oct. 29 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential race in Ohio -- the deciding state in the 2004 election -- and to discuss the competitive House races in the state.
Battleground Cheat Sheet: Ohio; Also this week: More discussions on key states
The transcript follows.
____________________
Fair Elections: So glad to see Blackwell out of there. Has there been a marked difference in having a Democrat in charge of the voting process in 2008 as opposed to 2004? What changes have you noted to prevent voter suppression efforts in this cycle?
Mark Naymik: Former Ohio SOS Ken Blackwell also served as a honorary co-chair of the Bush 2004 campaign in Ohio, which created a lot of concern, most overblown. (Democrats tried to link him to Diebold voting machine problems.)
Blackwell issued several directives that were controversial, including one that required voter registration cards be submitted on heavy paper stock. It was recinded. Okay, that's four years ago.
The new SOS, Jennifer Brunner, as you note is a Democrat, but she has not been immune to charges of partisan politics.
She rejected absentee ballots sent by the McCain campaign that were missing a check mark on a box. The GOP sued her and won. The move led many editorial pages to accuse her of partisan politics.
She has also been locked in several legal battles over what to do with mismatches in the new statewide voter file. The GOP said she creating the potential for fraud; she said she's protecting the voters who might unfairly be knocked off the voter file.
The concern over bad voter registration cards submitted by ACORN has also generated a lot of hype that has heightened attention to the SOS office.
Brunner has issued more clear directives on election day observers and other provisional ballot related issues that has lessened some concern.
In the end, there is slightly less concern.
_______________________
Lakewood, Ohio: Are Ohio Democrats worried about voter supression effort by the GOP? Will the Republicans resort to their usual suppression efforts? Are they using any new tactics?
Mark Naymik: I get this question a lot. And people worry that the GOP will send party members into the polls to challenge voters in Democratic areas on Election Day. From what I've seen in past elections, such challenges do not really take place. I have not seen GOP volunteers in heavily Democratic areas challenging voters. To be candid, race may play a role in this. Many heavy Democratic areas are in predominately black inner cities. Both parties don't want to inflame potential differences by pitting white challengers against black voters.
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Washington: There is a lot of talk about "working-class voters," but "working class" seems to be defined by education or income rather than occupation or even work status. For example, Hillary Clinton's supporters were described as "working class," but also predominantly were older. That means a low-income, non-college-educated retiree might be called "working-class." Nothing against retirees, but most of them aren't in the workforce, so you can't call them "working." Has there been any attempt to tease out support by actual workforce status? Do we know how people who actually work full-time are voting in Ohio?
Mark Naymik: Fair question. We have not looked at those demographics. The campaigns are ultimately focused on turnout of voters and we know that older retireers are very regular voters so I don't imagine the campaigns will worry too much about the distinction between working and non-working within that group. You raise a good point on the "working class" vote. Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in Ohio by nine percentage points on the strength of "working class" and retiree voters, exit polls show. So it's not a surprise that Obama is trying very hard to speak to the middle-class working voters. I think we will see him make that appeal tonight in his 30 minute commercial.
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Alexandria, Va.: How has early voting been going in Cuyahoga County? Long lines, long waits or fairly smoothly?
Mark Naymik: I assume you mean IN-PERSON early voting. In-person voting in Cuyahoga has been picking up in the last few days. Since it began, about 1,000 people a day were voting. On Sunday, thanks to bus loads of church goers, the board processed more than 2,000 early voters. Since the board offices are in downtown Cleveland, it is a safe bet that the bulk of the voters are Democrats. If you live in the suburbs, it is easier to mail in your absentee ballot. (Remember, voters who vote in person are also casting an absentee ballot.) Early voting - both in person and by mail - is up statewide from 2004. About 1 and five voters have voted already in Ohio, the Secretary of State's office says.
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Philadelphia: While I am optimistic that Obama can pull out a win in Ohio, it still would be a major upset on Election Day. How do you see it? What areas of the state will you be looking to for early returns on Election Night to clue you in on the outcome?
Mark Naymik: An Ohio Newspaper Poll released Sunday shows Obama up by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is a statistical dead heat. But since our first of three polls in mid Sept., Obama has gained seven points; McCain has lost two points. The trend favors Obama.
But McCain is campaigning hard in Ohio - he'll be here Thursday for a two-day bus trip. Running mate Sarah Palin is here today and will continue to campaign in the state. (She should run for governor she's been here so much.)
The big cities - Cincy, Columbus, and Cleveland -- will go for Obama. Clues to victory will be how well Obama does in rural and ex-urbia - Butler, Deleware, Medina counties - and in swing counties like Lake County. (There's plenty other examples, as well.) Problem is that Ohio - largely thanks to Cuyahoga County's slow count - may not have results in early. The election might be called before we know. If the election comes down to one state, Ohio will be the one we wait on.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: ACORN has been very active in Ohio and several Obama supporters have acknowledged improperly registering and voting in Ohio, but so far the only votes challenged by Jennifer Brunner has been to Republican absentee ballots. Despite the views of your first two questioners, doesn't this indicate that any voter suppression is likely to be against Republican voters?
Mark Naymik: I urge people on this issues to remember that voter registration fraud (it's real, with plenty of examples in Ohio to support it) does not equal voter fraud. The GOP is concerned that illegal votes will cancel out legal votes, ultimately creating supression of good votes.
But we have seen few cases - I can think of one or two reported in Ohio -- where people cast illegal ballots. Why? ACORN registers fake people to collect a paycheck, not help a candidate. A famous case of REGISTRATION fraud from 2004 is Jive Turkey, a name turned in by ACORN.
Mr. Turkey never showed up at the polls. I would have liked to see his ID.
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washingtonpost.com: The Democrats picked up one of Ohio's House seats in 2006; how many do you expect them to gain this year? Are these wins the result of demographic shifts, or could they be reversed if the Democratic wave recedes?
Mark Naymik: Ohio Democrats are confident that can pick up at least four , enough to give them control of the House. I don't see more than three. But the Democrats are benefiting from some weak GOP candidates, a lingering anti-Republican mood. We have not seen significant population shifts impact this.
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Pittsburgh: Now that Joe-the-Plumber has given the McCain/Palin ticket his formal endorsement, have intrepid reporters been checking his bank account for any recent infusions of cash from GOP fat-cats, which might enable him to actually buy his boss's plumbing firm?
Mark Naymik: No. But we are looking at why Democrats in state government used state databases to look into Joe the Plumber's background - drivers license and child support etc. This story is getting a lot of traction in the state. The Columbus Dispatch first broke the story after a tip.
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Austin, Texas: I have a sister who lives in Cincinnati. She won't talk politics with me -- says it's too volatile a subject (she voted enthusiastically for Bush in 2000, less enthusiastically in 2004). Anyway, what it the prediction on the House race in the 2nd Congressional District? Has Jean Schmidt made enough enemies to lose?
Mark Naymik: Conventional wisdom from both parties is that she holds on.
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Columbia, Md.: This is my first voting experience after becoming a proud U.S. citizen. I have two kids and am taking Nov. 4 off, and yes part of it is so I can vote. Do they allow kids in polling booths, or do I have to find a babysitter? I would appreciate your help.
Mark Naymik: Speaking only to Ohio's rule: A child is allowed in with a parent.
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New York: Simple question: Who will win in Ohio?
Mark Naymik: Two days before the 2004 election, I finally thought Kerry might pull it out in Ohio. He did not. The Ohio GOP/McCain operatin is not as big as Obama's this year, but I am not predicting this time what will happen in Ohio.
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Portland, Ore.: Is there any lingering effects of the past Republican scandals that Democrats were able to capitalize on in the past election? I'm thinking of the governor's race especially. Any of that carrying over to this election, or is that all old news?
Mark Naymik: Good question. The anti-Republican mood is from the top -- Bush's poor poll numbers. In Ohio, Republicans are benefiting from Democratic scandals, the biggest being the Democratic AG who resigned in spring after a sex scandal. Locally, the FBI is investigating Cuyahoga County's top two Democratic politicians. This has been a huge story here and Republicans are using it in ads against Dems.
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Washington: Mark, thanks for doing this chat. You guys have been a key "battleground state" forever. I'm just curious if things feel different "on the ground" this year from say, 2004 or 2000. If so, how?
Mark Naymik: Obama has a much more organized campaign than John Kerry in 2004. There is also far fewer outside groups -- like the now defunct America Coming Together -- doing door knocking and other GOTV efforts that seemed to duplicate efforts in Dem areas.
The Ohio Democratic Party is far stronger.
As for McCain: his operation is less organized than Bush's. Part is do to the fact that McCain isn't the incumbent. He also doesn't have the resources. The Ohio GOP is still the backbone here and doing its thing.
As for ground game, I've written a bit that Obama has the edge.
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Kansas City, Mo.: What's the outlook this time for matching up voting equipment with voters? There were stories in 2004 about voters waiting hours to vote.
Mark Naymik: Election officials claim they have learned lessons from 2004 and will pay better attention to new registrations/primary activity to help them plan.
Important to remember that some of the problems in 2004 were the result of bad planning by Democratic officials, so I don't see this as a conspiracy in anyway, just bad planning.
FYI: More than half - about 53 counties -- in Ohio will use touch screen systems. Most of the others on are optical scan machines, which have the ability to handle surges becasue people can just fill in the paper ballot and it can be scanned at the polling location later.
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Re: Voter Challenges: It seems you and Kai Wright are looking at two different 2004 elections in Ohio. From Kai's chat (going on now): "In 2004, for instance, the GOP sent 1,400 challengers to Ohio's Cuyahoga County. Not coincidentally, that's where we saw historically long waits to vote." You said there was no indication of voter challenges gumming up the works. Who's right?
Mark Naymik: Cuyahoga County has 1,500 precincts so the number is not huge.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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October 29, 2008 Wednesday 11:10 AM EST
McCain Delivers Remarks in Miami, Fla.
BYLINE: CQ Transcripts Wire, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 1603 words
HIGHLIGHT: MCCAIN: It's great to be back in Florida. We need to win Florida on November 4th, and with your help -- we're going to win here, and bring real change to Washington. We need a new direction, and we have to fight for it.
MCCAIN: It's great to be back in Florida. We need to win Florida on November 4th, and with your help -- we're going to win here, and bring real change to Washington. We need a new direction, and we have to fight for it.
I've been fighting for this country since I was seventeen years old, and I have the scars to prove it. If I'm elected President, I will fight to shake up Washington and take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last. I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it.
I have a plan to hold the line on taxes and cut them to make America more competitive and create jobs here at home. We're going to double the child deduction for working families. We will cut the capital gains tax. And we will cut business taxes to help create jobs, and keep American businesses in America. Raising taxes makes a bad economy much worse. Keeping taxes low creates jobs, keeps money in your hands and strengthens our economy.
If I'm elected President, I won't spend nearly a trillion dollars more of your money. Senator Obama will. And he can't do that without raising your taxes or digging us further into debt. I'm going to make government live on a budget just like you do.
I will freeze government spending on all but the most important programs like defense, veterans care, NASA, Social Security and health care until we scrub every single government program and get rid of the ones that aren't working for the American people. And I will veto every single pork barrel bill Congresses passes.
I'm not going to spend $750 billion dollars of your money just bailing out the Wall Street bankers and brokers who got us into this mess. Senator Obama will. I'm going to make sure we take care of the working people who were devastated by the excesses of Wall Street and Washington.
I have a plan to fix our housing market, so that your home value doesn't go down when your neighbor defaults, and so that people in danger of defaulting have a path to pay off their loan.
If I'm elected President, we're going to stop spending $700 billion to buy oil from countries that don't like us very much. Senator Obama will argue to delay drilling for more oil and gas and against building new nuclear power plants in America. If I am president, we will start new drilling now.
We will invest in all energy alternatives -- nuclear, wind, solar, and tide. We will encourage the manufacture of hybrid, flex fuel and electric automobiles. We will invest in clean coal technology. We will lower the cost of energy within months, and we will create millions of new jobs.
We've learned more about Senator Obama's real goals for our country over the last two weeks than we learned over the past two years, and that only because Joe the plumber asked him a question in Ohio. That's when Senator Obama revealed he wants to quote "spread the wealth around."
Now, Joe didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to his house, and he didn't ask to be famous. He certainly didn't ask for the political attacks on him from the Obama campaign. Joe's dream is to own a small business that will create jobs, and the attacks on him are an attack on small businesses all over the country. These are people like Gus the homebuilder and Peter the exterminator right here in Miami. Small businesses employ 84 percent of Americans, and we need to support these small businesses, not tax them.
After months of campaign trail eloquence, we've finally learned what Senator Obama's economic goal is: to spread the wealth. In a radio interview revealed this week, he said the same thing -- that one of the quote, "tragedies" of the civil rights movement is that it didn't bring about "redistributive change."
You see, Senator Obama believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs. He said that even though lower taxes on investment help our economy, he favors higher taxes on investment for quote "fairness." There's nothing "fair" about driving our economy into the ground. We all suffer when that happens, and that is the problem with Senator Obama's approach to our economy. He is more interested in controlling wealth than in creating it, in redistributing money instead of spreading opportunity. I am going to create wealth for all Americans, by creating opportunity for all Americans.
Senator Obama is running to be Redistributionist in Chief. I'm running to be Commander in Chief. Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama is running to punish the successful. I'm running to make everyone successful.
Senator Obama has made a lot of promises. First he said people making less than 250,000 dollars would benefit from his plan, then this weekend he announced in an ad that if you're a family making less than 200,000 dollars you'll benefit -- but this week, Senator Biden said tax relief should only go to "middle class people -- people making under 150,000 dollars a year." It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won't be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just 42,000 dollars a year should get a tax increase. We can't let that happen.
This Democratic Congress is planning all sorts of new taxes. This week, we are hearing they want to tax your 401k contributions. This is a time when we need to be encouraging more investing, not taxing it. We can't let them get away with making a bad economy even worse. Now is the time to grow our economy, and that's what I'm going to do.
My opponent's massive new tax increase is exactly the wrong approach in an economic slowdown. The answer to a slowing economy is not higher taxes, but that is exactly what is going to happen when the Democrats have total control of Washington. We can't let that happen. We need pro-growth and pro-jobs economic policies, not pro-government spending programs paid for with higher taxes.
This is the fundamental difference between Senator Obama and me. He thinks taxes are too low, and I think that spending is too high. If we are going to change Washington, we need a President who has actually fought for change and made it happen. The next President won't have time to get used to the office. We face many challenges here at home, and many enemies abroad in this dangerous world.
Senator Biden warned that Senator Obama would be tested with an international crisis. I have been tested. Senator Obama hasn't. Senator Biden referred to how Jack Kennedy was tested in the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have a little personal experience in that. I was on board the U.S.S. Enterprise, and I sat in a jet cockpit on the flight deck waiting to take off. We had a target. I know how close we came to a nuclear war and I will not be a president that needs to be tested.
We know Senator Obama won't have the right response to that test, because we've seen the wrong response from him over and over during this campaign. He opposed the surge strategy that is bringing us victory in Iraq and will bring us victory in Afghanistan. He said he would sit down unconditionally with the world's worst dictators. When Russia invaded Georgia, Sen. Obama said the invaded country should show restraint. He's been wrong on all of these. When I am president, we are going to win in Iraq and win in Afghanistan, and our troops will come home in victory and honor.
Let me give you the state of the race today. There's less than a week to go. We're a few points down. The pundits have written us off, just like they've done before. My opponent is working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid of their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq. He's measuring the drapes, and he's planned his first address to the nation for before the election. I guess I'm old fashioned about these things -- I prefer to let the voters weigh in before presuming the outcome.
What America needs now is someone who will finish the race before the starting the victory lap, someone who will fight to the end, and not for himself but for his country.
I have fought for you most of my life, and in places where defeat meant more than returning to the Senate. There are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to back down when the stakes are high.
I know you're worried. America is a great country, but we are at a moment of national crisis that will determine our future.
Will we continue to lead the world's economies or will we be overtaken? Will the world become safer or more dangerous? Will our military remain the strongest in the world? Will our children and grandchildren's future be brighter than ours?
My answer to you is yes. Yes, we will lead. Yes, we will prosper. Yes, we will be safer. Yes, we will pass on to our children a stronger, better country. But we must be prepared to act swiftly, boldly, with courage and wisdom.
I'm an American. And I choose to fight. Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight. Fight for a new direction for our country. Fight for what's right for America.
Fight to clean up the mess of corruption, infighting and selfishness in Washington.
Fight to get our economy out of the ditch and back in the lead.
Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.
Fight for our children's future.
Fight for justice and opportunity for all.
Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.
Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history. Now, let's go win this election and get this country moving again.
END
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Washingtonpost.com
October 29, 2008 Wednesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Shailagh Murray, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2061 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Wednesday, Oct. 29 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. Have you been hearing any buzz about more retirements from House Republicans? Informed speculation? My understanding is that, unlike the Senate, it's no fun to be in the minority in the House. The Democrats figure to pick up another 20-30 seats, and a key factor has been House Republican retirements. Is that going to get worse?
Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone. Six days left! Can you believe it?
I see Raleigh is already jumping the gun. I have not heard talk of new retirements but that is certain to be a concern -- if there are indeed Republicans left to retire. It would be hard to be believe that the GOP hasn't hit rock bottom this cycle. But let's see how the Democrats handle their supermajorities.
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Pennsylvania: Shailagh, given that (almost) everyone pretty much has called the election for Obama, is there any sense that the still many days left to go works against Obama -- i.e. do you think his campaign wishes that the election was now, and that the longer there is to go, the more McCain could actually pull closer (and maybe even pull this out)?
Shailagh Murray: No question, the Obama campaign would love this election to happen right now. Who wouldn't? But in fact it is happening right now because people are voting early in so many states, at a pace that suggests we may be heading into an era when elections take place over the course of several weeks, with the first Tuesday in November viewed as a deadline as opposed to a starting point.
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Alexandria, Va.: Brava on your appearance in the drinking game video with Milbank. You are braver than I.
washingtonpost.com: Washington Sketch Video: Buzzword Bingo (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 16)
Shailagh Murray: Thanks! I must say, that video got far more attention than any debate story I've ever written. And that was non-alcoholic beer, for the record.
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Fort Lee, N.J.: No matter what happens on Tuesday, has Howard Dean's 50-state strategy been vindicated, just because the GOP has had to fight in areas they never thought they would have to visit again?
Shailagh Murray: Absolutely it's been vindicated. This election is being fought not just state by state, but in Maine and Nebraska, within individual congressional districts. How great is that? At some point both parties will figure this out and then anything goes.
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And that was non-alcoholic beer, for the record: I'd think just hanging out with Milbank and Balz would be intoxicating enough!
Shailagh Murray: Absolutely. My colleagues, my heroes.
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Bethesda, Md.: Do you think Obama's 30-minute infomercial is a good strategy? Seems like overkill at this point, and delaying the World Series seems like a bad idea.
Shailagh Murray: Doesn't it all seem like overkill at this point?
Keep in mind the guiding principle of the Obama campaign: the more time people have to get to know him, the more inclined they are to support him. So consider this part of the effort to close the deal.
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Washington: Assuming Obama wins, any idea what cause Michele Obama would pursue with the First Lady's pulpit? I thought Kathleen Parker's article about Laura Bush's influence was interesting.
washingtonpost.com: Laura Bush's Bully Pulpit (Post, Oct. 29)
Shailagh Murray: She's been focused on military families these past months, and I would expect that to continue. I would be shocked to see her take on a big ambitious policy agenda. It's not her style.
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Fairfax, Va.: Who is in greater danger: Saxby Chambliss or Mitch McConnell? What chance do you give that either loses on Tuesday?
Shailagh Murray: I will go out on a limb and say Saxby Chambliss. He hasn't been around as long, and Obama has a lot of strong support in Georgia, including hundreds of thousands of African American voters who weren't even registered before this year. Either would be a big upset, and would surprise me, but the Obama factor makes Georgia the bigger wildcard.
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Voter Registration: The Canadians have a very simple and fool proof voter registration system: You check off that you would like to be registered to vote when you file your taxes. Why can't we just import the system?
Shailagh Murray: I'm not sure about Canada, but elections are run by local governments here, so it's very tough to take any sort of national approach to voting in the U.S. Check out some of websites that keep track of early voting -- it's astonishing how much the rules vary.
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McCain-Palin Friction: Is this story growing in intensity with the whack-job and ignoramis comments being floated out of teh McCain campaign? It seems the campaign is falling apart just at the time they need it to close ranks? Or is this an internal indicator of the McCain campaign staff deciding they're going to lose, so it's every man/woman for themselves?
Shailagh Murray: Losing campaign fall apart, that's just political gravity. And of course Sarah Palin is going to take a lot of the heat, because for better or worse, she has defined the last six weeks of the election. Chances are we haven't seen anything yet, compared to the stories that are likely to flow after next Tuesday.
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Girard, Ohio: Obama's not delaying the World Series -- the first pitch will be thrown on time, but the pre-game show will be truncated, according to FOX account executive Joe Coppola. Just FYI.
Shailagh Murray: Thanks for the clarification.
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Alexandria, Va.: Why were Democrats unable to get these new African American voters to the polls in previous election cycles?
Shailagh Murray: Because they didn't compete for a lot of states that have large black populations -- like much of the South.
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Minnesota: What do you think about Palin in 2012? It seems to me that her base of support is too narrow to be at the top of a ticket.
Shailagh Murray: Remember when people were wondering about Obama after his 2004 speech? Hard to believe that was just four years ago.
I'm not sure Palin has the talent to climb that high, that quickly. Strictly as the chief executive of his campaign, Obama has no rival in politics. But I'm fully prepared to be surprised.
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Takoma Park, Md.: Has Biden had plastic surgery? His face looks odd. Reminds me of Greta Van Susteren on Fox News.
Shailagh Murray: I don't know!
Keep in mind that Biden has undergone two rounds of mega-brain surgery, which means two de facto face lifts. It was 20 years ago, but still -- he was in his 40s. So maybe that's what people are seeing. He doesn't look different to me, compared to a few years ago.
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Bloomington, Ind.: Good morning Shailagh. Where are you? Still reporting about that old presidential campaign? My lovely companion can't wait for the election to be over because it's all I talk about. As a pro, how do you get away from all the political chatter?
Shailagh Murray: The country is going to sink into a massive national depression after this is over. People will have no idea what to do with all the energy they've spent stressing out about their candidate, watching all that cable TV, and refreshing websites.
I recommend a fantasy baseball team. It's basically the same exercise described above, but you can win money.
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Fort Myers, Fla.: Pew has Obama up by 16 points, but Rasmussen has him up by only 3. What gives? They're both decent pollsters, right?
Shailagh Murray: Polls are so scary these days, because of the cell phone factor and the uncertainty about who will vote. Focus on the averages compiled on websites like fivethirtyeight.com and pollster.com and on the individual state polls, which are sampling more narrow groups.
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Chicago: Hey Shailagh, what drinking game are you and Milbank going to play on election night?
Shailagh Murray: I sure wish Dana were going to be in Chicago on Tuesday, but I think he's planning to spend the evening in Arizona.
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Washington: Why is Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) running unopposed for re-election? I find it hard to believe that the GOP could not find someone to run against him. If he really is that popular, does he have national aspirations?
Shailagh Murray: Republicans had terrible problems recruiting this year, and we're about to find out why. Actually, in the interest of being fair and balanced, I wouldn't call this a standout year for Democratic Senate and House candidates, either. The 2006 crop was far more impressive.
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Princeton, N.J.: I am 70 years old. When I was young there were the Taft wing and the Rockefeller wing of the Republican Party. The Rockefeller wing is dying. The Taft wing has been taken over by anti-intellectual religious zealots. Is their any hope that the Republican Party can get back to its roots?
Shailagh Murray: It certainly doesn't seem to be headed in that direction now. But how the Republican Party picks itself up and moves forward will surely be a fascinating parallel narrative over the next few election cycles.
_______________________
Avon Park, Fla.: As an Obama supporter I'm a little concerned that his infomercial tonight could cause overexposure, which could lead to voter fatigue about him. Is there a significant chance that people could get tired of Obama and thus move to McCain as a result?
Shailagh Murray: I can tell you're an Obama supporter because you're exhibiting the telltale signs: anxiety, impatience, paranoia.
Sure, this probably is overkill. It's also a novelty, so it won't come off as just another ad, but it certainly is a splashy way to end.
_______________________
Purcellville, Va.: Do you see Mark Warner's impressive lead in Virginia having a coattail effect not only for Obama but for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House? For example, many people may not be familiar with the 10th District's Judy Feder, but while they're voting a Democratic ticket, will she likely get a boost?
Shailagh Murray: Maybe. Dozens of marginal House seats fall into this category, especially suburban districts and those that include college towns. If Obama has massive turnout, and McCain does just okay getting his folks to the polls, there could be a tsunami.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.: Good morning, Shailagh. What congressional races in particular will you be watching on Election Night to determine overall trends, including a possible Democratic wave? Thanks.
Shailagh Murray: Great question.
Here's a list of a few where the polls close early and that we consider telling: Virginia 2, Indiana 3, Kentucky 2, Florida 21 and 25.
_______________________
Scarsdale, N.Y.: Thanks, Charlie Crist. Thanks a lot, traitor. You just handed Florida to Obama by extending the hours for early voting.
Shailagh Murray: Or maybe he was just trying to keep the Supreme Court out of this election. My guess is Florida doesn't want another voting controversy on its doorstep.
Folks, I can't believe I am saying this, but goodbye until after the election!!! And when you vote on Tuesday, wear comfortable shoes and bring a book.
Cheers, Shailagh
_______________________
washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Ohio and the General Election (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
_______________________
washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Voter Suppression and Ballot Problems (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Putting Faith in Obama
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE and MEGAN THEE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; ADVERTISING; Pg. 16
LENGTH: 262 words
The Matthew 25 Network, a relatively new political action group aimed at Christian voters, began broadcasting two radio commercials on Monday on behalf of Senator Barack Obama.
The spots are running on Christian music stations in several contested states, including Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
One, called ''Source of Hope,'' replays Mr. Obama's words as he describes his faith as a source of hope. He refers to ''kneeling beneath a cross'' and embracing Christ, an implicit declaration of his Christianity as false rumors persist in suggesting that he is Muslim.
The other, called ''Pro-Life, Pro-Obama,'' features Douglas W. Kmiec, a Catholic legal scholar who was a legal counsel under President Ronald Reagan. Mr. Kmiec makes his appeal to those who oppose abortion rights and says that Mr. Obama, who supports abortion rights, also supports prenatal care, maternity leave and adoption. Mr. Kmiec says these policies would reduce the number of abortions.
The commercials are intended to appeal to Christian voters who have not been inspired by Mr. Obama's rival, Senator John McCain.
In the most recent New York Times/CBS poll, conducted Oct. 19-22, white voters who describe themselves as evangelical Christians supported Mr. McCain over Mr. Obama by 65 percent to 22 percent. (Voters over all supported Mr. Obama over Mr. McCain by 51 percent to 38 percent.) In 2004, they were more supportive of President Bush; he won 78 percent of the white evangelical Christian vote, exit polls showed.KATHARINE Q. SEELYE and MEGAN THEE
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The New York Times
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
New to Campaigning, but No Longer a Novice
BYLINE: By PATRICK HEALY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 16
LENGTH: 1396 words
DATELINE: AKRON, Ohio
On a visit to her husband's campaign office here the other day, Michelle Obama was handed a phone and a script of talking points and made calls to a few undecided voters. Mrs. Obama mixed policy on taxes and health care with chitchat about Ohio, laughter about her life in politics and tidbits about her family.
After a couple of calls, she realized that she had not been following the typewritten notes. ''I didn't look at the script,'' she said, speaking more to herself than to the volunteers on the phones next to her.
But no matter. While some of Senator Barack Obama's advisers once viewed Mrs. Obama as an unpredictable force who sometimes spoke her mind a little too much, she is now regarded within the campaign as a disciplined and effective advocate for her husband. She has also, advisers believe, gone a long way toward addressing her greatest unstated challenge: making more voters comfortable with the idea of a black first lady.
Mrs. Obama and her aides have carefully chosen her appearances on the national stage this fall, mostly selecting high-profile venues that are politically safe. Joking Monday night with Jay Leno on ''The Tonight Show,'' she told of her older daughter's ordering Mr. Obama not to ''mess with my TV'' regarding his 30-minute commercial on Wednesday night, which will pre-empt some shows. She also expressed some sympathy for Gov. Sarah Palin over the recent wardrobe controversy, while noting that the Obamas bought their own clothes.
By the standards of a national political campaign, Mrs. Obama does maintain a somewhat limited schedule. (She has stumped outside Chicago on 20 of the 57 days since Labor Day, the traditional start of the fall election season.) Most of the time she is at home taking care of the couple's 10- and 7-year-old daughters, a choice that advisers hope will pay dividends among women of all races who can relate to her priorities.
But when she is at political events -- occasionally with Mr. Obama, though much more often on her own -- she is drawing large crowds, speaking with new confidence and generally avoiding gaffes as she confronts one of the trickiest tasks in the campaign. Many voters view first families as symbols of the nation, and Mrs. Obama is selling a package that for large numbers of Americans poses a real change.
Addressing a raucous rally in a gym here on Friday, Mrs. Obama had the crowd -- a mix of a few thousand black and white voters -- laughing and cheering throughout.
''So many precious little babies like that one!'' she said after noticing one infant near the stage. ''Just completely delicious!''
The audience roared with delight. And many clapped, too, when she said: ''I also come here as a mother; that is my primary title, mom in chief. My girls are the first thing I think about when I wake up in the morning and the last thing I think about when I go to bed. When people ask me how I'm doing, I say, 'I'm only as good as my most sad child.' ''
In one sign of the campaign's confidence in her, Mrs. Obama is being deployed where it matters most. Since Labor Day, she has spent three days campaigning in Florida and two days each in Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as days in other swing states (sometimes two in a day).
She usually holds rallies (her biggest was with 11,000 people in Gainesville, Fla., last week) or small round tables on the needs of working women and military families, the two groups she speaks about the most. On Saturday, she delivered the Democratic Party's weekly radio address, urging her husband's supporters to turn out on Election Day.
As first lady, Obama advisers say, Mrs. Obama would focus first on her family and then on the issues facing women and military spouses as those groups deal with the economic crisis and the return of troops from Iraq. She also plans to take up national service as an issue, aides say. She will not have a major policy role, they say, and does not plan to have an office in the West Wing.
Advisers to the spouses of past Democratic nominees -- Teresa Heinz Kerry in 2004, Tipper Gore in 2000, Hillary Rodham Clinton in 1992 -- say they spent more time campaigning in the fall than has Mrs. Obama. All their children were older, however, and Mrs. Kerry and Mrs. Clinton were often sent to secondary media markets, because they were unpopular with some undecided voters and independents.
Chris Lehane, an adviser and spokesman for the Gore campaign, said Mrs. Gore traveled constantly in the fall of 2000, and he described a somewhat larger traveling retinue than Mrs. Obama has. (She is accompanied by a handful of aides and a Secret Service contingent, but there is no press corps on her plane.)
Echoing private comments of some Obama advisers, Mr. Lehane said he believed that the Obama campaign had been unsure at first about Mrs. Obama's potential appeal, in part because of some early missteps and in part because of the novelty of a black woman's auditioning for the role of first lady.
''My sense,'' Mr. Lehane said, ''is that the campaign was initially apprehensive, because they recognized that she was going to be treated unfairly and held to a hard-to-meet standard.''
Indeed, for months Mrs. Obama was a political target. A Fox News anchor referred to an affectionate fist bump between the Obamas as a ''terrorist fist jab.'' Republicans, including Cindy McCain, criticized her for saying in February that ''for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country.'' (They omitted the words that followed: ''And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change.'') A blogger supporting Senator Clinton spread an unfounded rumor that Mrs. Obama had once used the word ''whitey.''
The Obamas' need to deal with race as a factor in the campaign came to the fore this spring as Mr. Obama confronted incendiary remarks by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., who had married the couple and baptized their children. As the son of a white mother from Kansas and a black father from Kenya, Mr. Obama has often drawn on his biracial experience to help bridge racial divides. Mrs. Obama does not have that background to draw on, making her political challenge that much more complex.
David Axelrod, Mr. Obama's chief strategist, said in an interview that Mrs. Obama, not being a politician, had gone through a period of ''getting comfortable'' with campaigning. She learned a great deal on her own, Mr. Axelrod said, noting that aides had not had to tell her to avoid fist bumps or remarks like ''proud of my country'' in the future.
''I didn't think she needed to be told,'' he said. ''She is very, very smart and sensitive, and I think she learned from experience that in this business, you have to be very precise with your words so people don't misinterpret them. That's part of the learning experience. There's no question that she's learned.''
Still, the Obama campaign has limited interviews that would entail tough questions from national newspapers and cable news programs. ''There is not one vote she will get from doing Wolf Blitzer,'' an aide said.
Instead, she has appeared several times on the morning network programs and on entertainment shows like ''The View,'' ''Ellen,'' ''The Daily Show,'' ''Rachael Ray'' and, twice each, ''Access Hollywood'' and ''Entertainment Tonight.''
If Mrs. Obama is not as blunt as she once was (in describing some of her husband's habits, for instance), she is by no means hiding herpersonality, either. On ''The Tonight Show,'' she noted that she and her husband still sparred privately like the lawyers they are, and added: ''You want to know how Barack prepares for a debate? He hangs out with me, and he's ready.''
At the Akron rally, she drew appreciative laughter from many in the audience when, her voice at once growing hushed and yet rising in pitch, she referred to her husband as ''baby'' while sharing an anecdote.
''My assumption,'' she said, ''is that Barack Obama is going to be the underdog until he is sitting in the Oval Office. At the start of this, I said to him, 'Look, baby, you can do a lot of things.' He believes he can do a whole lot. If he works hard, he can change the world.''
But, she added, if he is to win, he needs for his supporters to be sure to vote. The audience erupted in applause.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Michelle Obama at a campaign phone center in Akron. Ohio is just one swing state where she has stumped since Labor Day.
In a raucous rally last week at a school gym in Akron, the would-be first lady had the audience laughing and cheering throughout. ( PHOTOGRAPHS BY MARK LYONS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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USA TODAY
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
McCain, que paso?;
The GOP nominee is paying for his party's sins -- specifically the mishandling of immigration reform. Democrats, though also guilty, have escaped blame.
BYLINE: Ruben Navarrette
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 11A
LENGTH: 889 words
SAN DIEGO -- Just a week before Election Day, John McCain's advisers are probably looking at the trend line of the Latino vote and wondering: Que paso?
McCain is poised to have his worst showing ever with Latino voters, a constituency with which he has done extremely well in the past thanks to his personal relationships, war hero status, moderate positions and independent streak. In his 1998 Senate re-election in Arizona, McCain got 65% of the Hispanic vote. In 2004, it was 70%. But this year, on a national level, it's another story.
In a July survey by the Pew Hispanic Center, 23% of Latinos support McCain, while 66% back Barack Obama. A third of respondents said the immigration issue would influence their vote. Fifty percent said Obama was the better candidate for immigrants; 12% said that about McCain. According to another survey, many Latinos in the USA say they're being picked on, discriminated against and turned into scapegoats. And they blame the Republican Party.
Be sure to catch the irony: McCain is being punished for the very sins he tried to prevent other Republicans from committing, while Obama is being absolved of sins that he and other Senate Democrats actually did commit.
An unheeded warning
Former Senate Republicans such as Rick Santorum and Bill Frist have acknowledged that, during the 2007 immigration reform debate, McCain warned them explicitly that they were badly mishandling the issue and making the GOP brand poisonous to Latinos.
McCain was dead-on. Republicans flunked immigration reform by clinging to an enforcement-only approach, making culture the issue by declaring English the national language, ignoring the anti-Latino racism in the debate and gutting sanctions for those who hire illegal immigrants. Republicans also tinkered with legal immigration by trying to ditch family reunification as the guiding principle.
Yet, Republican demagoguery is only part of the story. Senate Democrats also had a hand in killing immigration reform in 2007 by trying to torpedo GOP support for a bipartisan compromise. House Democrats, under orders from Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., kept the controversial issue off the legislative agenda in 2008. Why? Organized labor. Democrats' slavish adherence to unions required that they derail any proposal that includes guest workers, as any bill with a chance to win Republican support would have to do.
In spring 2007, in a maneuver that enraged Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., Majority Leader Harry Reid used political sleight of hand and spin to make it seem as if a powerless GOP minority had somehow mustered up the power to kill immigration reform.
The power lay with Senate Democrats, including Obama, who supported a series of "poison pill" amendments intended to weaken guest-worker provisions and drive away Republicans. Obama even proposed one such amendment himself.
Millions of undocumented immigrants in the USA blame Republicans for denying them green cards, but Democrats deserve most of the blame. The truth might have come out if not for loudmouths on right-wing talk radio who claimed credit for derailing comprehensive reform, which included a path to legalization for the undocumented (what critics called "amnesty"). The chest thumping was good news for Reid, who let the right-wing radio talkers confuse the issue.
And when a hard-hitting Spanish-language ad from the McCain-Palin campaign tried to set the record straight, the Obama-Biden campaign tried to confuse matters even further by calling upon Hispanic lawmakers, including Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, to once again blame Republicans for killing reform. Many Latino members of Congress rent their services like mariachis and always sing the same tune: The Democratic Party is the only one for Latinos.
The Obama-Biden campaign responded with its own Spanish-language ads, which tried to link McCain to radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh and then tried to paint Limbaugh as anti-Latino. The tactic fell apart when some in the news media pointed out that Limbaugh and McCain had butted heads over immigration reform.
Both camps are using Spanish-language ads as part of their underground campaigns to reach out to Latino voters. They get to make their pitch without incurring the wrath of English-speaking voters who don't like it when candidates engage in His-pandering.
Still in play
Because neither Obama nor McCain has had much to say to English-speaking Latinos since they spoke to a series of Latino advocacy groups last summer, it's no surprise that a significant percentage of Latino voters in key battleground states -- 10% to 12% -- are still undecided. That's the finding of a new survey by the Educational Fund of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. The survey of registered Latino voters in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico found that they plan to turn out in high numbers and that like most Americans, the economy is their top concern. But beyond that, they remain a mystery.
McCain might have one last chance at a reprieve. And if he racks up wins in key states, he'll have some old amigos to thank.
Ruben Navarrette is an editorial board member of the San Diego Union-Tribune, a nationally syndicated columnist with the Washington Post Writers Group and a weekly contributor to CNN.com.
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USA TODAY
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Obama ads overwhelm TV presence of McCain;
His 3 half-hour spots among $230M of buys
BYLINE: Fredreka Schouten
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1A
LENGTH: 388 words
WASHINGTON -- Democrat Barack Obama, who is on track to spend a record $230 million on television advertising, will punctuate his broadcast strategy Wednesday with prime-time commercials on CBS, NBC and Fox.
The three 30-minute ads, which cost Obama nearly $1 million apiece, mark the first time in 16 years that a White House hopeful has aired commercials of that length on broadcast networks. Billionaire Ross Perot paid for 11 half-hour ads during his unsuccessful 1992 bid as an independent.
Obama's ad spending will easily surpass the record $188 million President Bush spent in 2004, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ads. "Obama has rewritten the playbook on running a presidential campaign," he said. "There's nothing he can't afford to do."
Republican John McCain, who is limited to spending $84.1 million because he accepted taxpayer funds for the general election, has teamed up with the Republican National Committee to share advertising costs. They are likely to hit $130 million in TV ads by Election Day, Tracey said.
The advertising disparity "is one of our challenges, but we're still in this game," McCain senior aide Mark Salter said. "We feel it tightening."
Last week alone, Obama outspent McCain by 3-to-1 in TV ads. Both are spending in traditional battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania and GOP strongholds such as North Carolina.
"We are playing a lot more offense than defense" in states that Bush won four years ago, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said recently.
In his network gambit, Obama has tapped media consultant Mark Putnam to work on his ad. Putnam was behind New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's popular Job Interview spot during the Democratic primaries. In that ad, a bored interviewer ticks off Richardon's resume before asking him, "So, what makes you think you can be president?"
CBS, NBC and Fox have juggled their schedules for the Obama ad, which will air at 8 p.m. ET. ABC and Obama could not reach a deal. If necessary, Fox will delay the start of the World Series game.
"The big question is how many people will watch," said William Benoit, a University of Missouri-Columbia professor who studies political advertising. "It could just have the effect of rallying the faithful and making them more likely to vote."
Contributing: David Jackson
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The Washington Post
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
GOP Senator Banks on Obama in Oregon Race;
Ads Using Illinois Democrat Play to Tradition of Centrism
BYLINE: Karl Vick; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 1222 words
DATELINE: PORTLAND, Ore.
In the state where President Bush has his lowest popularity ratings in the nation, the incumbent Republican senator is reaching across the aisle and groping for the coattails of Barack Obama.
Sen. Gordon Smith, a two-term moderate in a state with a history of embracing centrist Republicans such as Mark Hatfield, has put the Democratic candidate for president in not one, not two, but three of his television ads.
How many mention John McCain?
"Zero," said Brooks Kochvar, manager of a Republican campaign that cannot accurately be described as running away from its party label. This is more of a sprint.
"Yeah, he's registered Republican," a timber man says in one Smith ad, "but . . ." But he worked with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.), says another spot. Yet another invokes Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), whose name still appears on fading bumper stickers in liberal Portland. "If you need any more telling indication of where the race is, or where the Republican Party is, what else can you say?" said Tim Hibbits, a Portland pollster whose surveys are among the many showing Smith falling behind Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley.
"He's in a hell of a mess," Hibbits said. "This is a state that tends to lean Democratic to begin with. Bush basically has destroyed the Republican brand here."
On a national electoral map remade by the economic crisis, Oregon offers Democrats one of the trickier challenges in the quest for the 60 seats that would make their majority filibuster-proof.
Enthusiasm for Obama clearly has hastened Oregon's shift from swing state into the Democratic column. This year, registration drives brought 167,000 more Democrats onto rolls, against a rise of 7,000 for Republicans. Democrats now have a 43 percent to 32 percent registration advantage.
"That's indicative of the shift that's going on underneath the surface of our politics here," said William Lunch, a political scientist at Oregon State University, noting steady Democratic election gains since 2002.
Before last week, the Obama campaign had offered scant help to Merkley, who said, "He has so much money, he's doing his own thing here." But on Friday afternoon, Obama began showing up on Oregon television, addressing the camera directly to say "With Jeff Merkley in the U.S. Senate, we can get our country back on track." The spot was the first Obama has done for another candidate since endorsing Bill Foster in a House special election in Illinois last February.
In Oregon, the need for attention "down the ballot" was acute. The May 20 mail-in primary gave Obama a thumping victory over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton but held ominous implications for Merkley: On the Democratic side, more than 90,000 ballots came back with no choice ticked in the Senate race.
"When you vote, don't stop at the top," a new TV spot counsels first-time voters, one of a flurry of new ads pointing out that Merkley is the Democrat in the race. "Give Obama the team he needs."
The spots reflect the concerns of some Oregon Democrats that Smith's contortions are proving effective. If the telegenic heir to a frozen-food fortune succeeds in melding his message to Obama's through their common appeal for bipartisan cooperation, ticket-splitters could make up the gap in new registrations.
"It isn't about politics," Smith said, straight-faced, at a press conference last week. "It's about presenting what honestly exists."
Smith, looking the part of a country club Republican in a blue blazer and bright yellow sweater vest, addressed reporters from a lectern labeled "Democrats for Smith." Two of the 22 registered Democrats flanking him sported Obama pins.
"The problems that confront us, no party can solve on its own," the candidate said.
Smith's claim of partnership with Obama appears thin. The Republican added his name to the list of co-sponsors on a bill the Illinois Democrat wrote requiring more fuel-efficient cars. Critics point out that Smith cast earlier votes against the same requirement.
"His record is so out of sync with Oregon," Merkley said.
But Smith does have lunch weekly and appears frequently in town halls with Oregon's senior senator, Ron Wyden, the state's most popular politician and a Democrat. "It's a question of finding common ground, and Senator Smith, my friend, my partner, always meets me halfway," Wyden says in archival footage the Smith campaign has turned into another television ad.
A Portland television station reported receiving calls from viewers wondering whether Wyden had endorsed both candidates. But he made it clear he backs only Merkley.
"The obvious intent of the ad is to confuse voters," said Wyden's chief of staff, Josh Kardon, who publicly asked Smith to remove Wyden's image. Smith demurred.
It is far from the most controversial commercial in a race that, but for Smith's embrace of the rival party, would be remembered for its nastiness.
The most notorious spot showed Merkley sloppily eating a hot dog while answering a question from the Republican operative who was filming him about the Russian invasion of Georgia. The words "Need a moment?" appear on-screen.
The spot, made by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, aired so relentlessly that Smith eventually condemned it. His own ads paint Merkley as hard on seniors and soft on rapists.
"There has been so much icky stuff," said Marny Gleboff, a retired librarian in Washington County, a Portland suburb that analysts call pivotal in voting that began last week, when Oregonians received their mail-in ballots. "Why doesn't he just quit being a Republican?"
"I think it stinks," said Judy, a retired utility worker and registered Democrat who said she twice before voted for Smith and who would give only her first name. "I think Smith has just shot himself in the foot, cut his own throat.
"I think if he just laid in the woods and paid attention to his own business, he might be okay."
Merkley has also faced bumps along the path to Nov. 4. The son of a lumber mill worker in rural Oregon, he did stints as a presidential national security fellow at the Pentagon and running Habitat for Humanity in Portland. In Salem, the self-described "policy guy" presided over a new Democratic majority in the state House during its most productive sessions in years.
But he challenged Smith only after more prominent Oregon Democrats declined to run and was nearly beaten by Portland activist Steve Novick in a primary Smith tried to influence by advertising against Merkley.
In the general election, most of the $27 million the two sides have spent on advertising has come from outside groups. One Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spot accuses Smith's frozen-food business of hiring illegal immigrants.
"He voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time," said Merkley, irked by Smith's effort to slipstream Obama.
But some voters say that if Smith survives, it will be thanks to an Oregon tradition Hatfield embodied.
"We cannot get away from the fact that Oregon is benefiting from a conservative Mormon senator and a liberal Jewish senator," said Deborah Burton, head nurse at a Portland hospital, referring to Smith and Wyden, respectively. The registered Democrat said she was at Smith's side last week because of his abiding support on a long list of issues.
"I can't speak for the rest," she said, "but health care is nonstop where it needs to be."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jim Craven -- Medford Mail Tribune Via Associated Press; Sen. Gordon Smith (R), a two-term moderate, points at opponent Jeff Merkley (D) during a lighter moment in their second debate in Medford. Voters' enthusiasm for Obama has translated to a swell in Democratic voter registrations. Recently, amid concerns that Smith's embrace of Obama was working, the nominee has appeared in ads for Merkley.
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The Washington Post
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
Regional Edition
The Trail
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LENGTH: 732 words
ATTACK ON OBAMA POLICY
McCain Team Seizes On Syria Strike
John McCain's campaign said Monday that the successful U.S. strike against a terrorist target in Syria would not have happened if Barack Obama had been president.
In a sharply worded e-mail, McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb said: "If Barack Obama had his way, U.S. forces would not have been in a position to launch this strike. So does Barack Obama support this action -- an action that would not even have been possible if his policies had been implemented?"
The U.S. military reported killing or wounding a terrorist leader and killing several other men near Syria's border with Iraq on Sunday.
McCain's statement also raised again Obama's willingness to meet with adversarial foreign leaders and the decision of one of Obama's foreign policy advisers to travel to Syria for meetings with its government.
In the statement, Goldfarb said: "Barack Obama has pledged to meet personally and unconditionally with Syria's leaders during his first year in office. While John McCain has been demanding that Syria do more to crack down on terrorists moving from its territory into Iraq, Barack Obama allowed one of his closest foreign policy advisers to travel to Syria for discussions with the leaders of that rogue regime."
The Obama campaign said that adviser, Daniel Kurtzer, President Bush's former ambassador to Israel, did not represent the Democrat on that trip. It also noted that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met in New York last month with Syria's foreign minister, a meeting that, according to Syrian state media, was requested by Rice.
-- Michael D. Shear
PRAIRIE BATTLEGROUND
Republicans to Start Advertising in Montana
The Republican National Committee will begin running television ads in Montana beginning on Wednesday, a sign of how heavily the playing field is tilted against the GOP with just eight days left in the presidential campaign.
Montana has been a Republican stronghold for years at the presidential level. President Bush carried it with 59 percent in 2004 and 58 percent four years earlier. Bill Clinton carried Montana when he first ran for president in 1992 -- but that was a year when Ross Perot took 26 percent of the vote.
Barack Obama has been advertising steadily in Montana for the past few months, and John McCain and the RNC had seemed content to let the Illinois senator have the airwaves to himself.
But recent polling shows that Obama is well within range of McCain -- perhaps prompting the RNC's decision to begin advertising.
-- Chris Cillizza
BILINGUAL APPEAL
Obama's Half-Hour Ad To Air in Spanish, Too
Barack Obama's campaign will air a Spanish-language version of its 30-minute infomercial Wednesday night on Univision, the highest-rated Spanish-language television network in the United States.
"Barack Obama: Historias Americanas," or "Barack Obama: American Stories," will air at 8 p.m. Eastern and Pacific time (7 p.m. Central and Mountain time), the same time the English-language version airs on CBS, Fox and NBC.
Miami Mayor Manny Diaz (D) announced the arrangement in a conference call with reporters. "The ad is going to highlight real American stories from across the nation," Diaz said. "This ad buy is historical. The fact that it will air on Univision is testament to the campaign's outreach to the Hispanic community."
The campaign also announced that it will continue to air three Spanish-language ads through Election Day: an ad about the senator's education proposals, called "Oportunidad," which is already on the air; an ad called "Por Encima," which delivers Obama's "closing arguments" and desire to "rise above" attacks made by Republicans and the McCain campaign; and a two-minute direct-to-camera message delivered by Obama in Spanish only, a first for any presidential candidate.
That ad, "Sueño Americano," or "American Dream," is aimed at voters in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia, the first time the campaign will air Spanish-language television advertising targeting Old Dominion Latinos. The ads will air in the D.C. market, which includes Northern Virginia.
In response to the direct-to-camera ad, the McCain campaign issued a statement by Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.): "This election is about more than beautiful words, it's about who decides how your money is spent, who chooses your doctor, and our standing around the world."
-- Ed O'Keefe
LOAD-DATE: October 28, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE
IMAGE; By Melina Mara -- The Washington Post; John McCain at a rally in Dayton, Ohio. Under a President Obama, a McCain aide said, "U.S. forces would not have been in a position" to strike in Syria.
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The Washington Post
October 28, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
ABC Jumps Too Late On Obama's 'Buy'
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 808 words
ABC finally offered Barack Obama's camp the 8 p.m. half-hour in its Wednesday lineup for his campaign-related program -- which will air at that time on the other major broadcast networks.
But, in an ironic twist, the Democratic presidential candidate's campaign passed on ABC's offer, saying it has allocated the funds elsewhere.
"We were in discussion with the Obama campaign and had offered them the half-hour, but at this point that's not happening and 'Pushing Daisies' will air in its regular time slot," an ABC spokesman told The TV Column yesterday. ABC already has begun airing ads telling viewers, "Wednesday you have a choice -- get political with the other networks or" watch a new episode of "Pushing Daisies" at 8 p.m.
More then two weeks ago, Obama's campaign approached the broadcast networks about purchasing the first half-hour of tomorrow's prime time -- a highly unusual, and relatively expensive, buy for a candidate -- to make what navel-gazers are now calling his "closing argument" to voters in re why he should be elected president.
CBS and NBC were the first to agree to sell Obama's camp the program time, at around $1 million each.
Fox followed days later, after Major League Baseball agreed to postpone the first pitch of Game 6 of the World Series by about 15 minutes to enable the network to join CBS and NBC, and its cable network, MSNBC, in running Obama's 30-minute message just six days before the election. Fox agreed to air the Obama "program" at 8 in the Eastern and Central time zones, and after the game on the West Coast. Fox is contractually obligated to carry a Game 6 tomorrow, should the series come to that. Otherwise, the network had nothing to lose by airing Obama programming in the time slot, given that its World Series fallback plan is always "Some Rerun."
That left ABC as the only major broadcast network that had not sold that half-hour to the Obama campaign.
ABC, which has spent the gross national product of a Third World country trying to relaunch its three struggling Wednesday sophomore dramas, originally offered to sell Obama's campaign other time slots on other nights. That way it wouldn't have to preempt one of its hour-long shows to make room for Obama's 30-minute telecast.
But the Obama camp passed, hoping to create what's called a "roadblock" across broadcast TV.
A viewing roadblock occurs when all the broadcast networks air the same program simultaneously. The most notable roadblock may be the celebrity-studded two-hour "America: A Tribute to Heroes" fundraiser for victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, which was telecast simultaneously on not only the broadcast networks but many cable networks, as well.
ABC execs finally decided to slide their entire prime-time lineup to make space for the Obama buy, which involved discussions with affiliate stations. But "by the time ABC got back to us, our plans were already set," an Obama campaign rep told The TV Column.
Speaking thereof, Nielsen Media Research just posted an updated analysis of presidential campaign advertising in the seven key swing states: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. And, not surprisingly, Obama's advertising in those states continues to surpass the number of ad units run by his opponent, John McCain.
In those states, Obama placed 155 percent more ad units (62,022 vs. 24,273) than McCain between Oct. 6 and 26, Nielsen reports. Obama's advertising continues to be heaviest in Florida. He ran 18,909 ads there in the same time frame, outpacing McCain's 5,702 ads by 232 percent, Nielsen added. The data include national and local spots seen in these states, as well as syndicated advertising but do not include local cable ads.
Yesterday afternoon, Obama's half-hour "program" was fed to the networks that will carry it at 8 p.m. tomorrow.
Political observers were calling the speech Obama delivered yesterday in Ohio the template for tomorrow's time-buy address. In the speech, Obama told his audience: "In one week we can choose hope over fear, unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo. In one week, we can come together as one nation, and one people, and once more choose our better history. That's what's at stake. That's what we're fighting for. And, if in this last week, you will knock on some doors for me, and make some calls for me, and talk to your neighbors, and convince your friends; if you will stand with me and fight with me and give me your vote, then I promise you this -- we will . . . not just win this election, but together we will change this country and we will change the world."
Obama also told the packed house at the Canton Civic Center that "all of us must do our part as parents to turn off the television and read to our children and take responsibility for providing the love and guidance they need."
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Washingtonpost.com
October 28, 2008 Tuesday 1:00 PM EST
Station Break: Campaign Ads, McCain, Obama, Palin, Biden, Brook Shields Commercials, Joe the Plumber, Christian Science Monitor;
Pop Culture and More
BYLINE: Paul Farhi, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4523 words
HIGHLIGHT: Down to the wire: Who wins your plaudits and damnation among the mainstream media's vast array of talking heads during this political season? Station Break's Paul Farhi was online Tuesday, Oct. 21, at 1 p.m. ET to offer some high- and low-lights.
Down to the wire: Who wins your plaudits and damnation among the mainstream media's vast array of talking heads during this political season? Station Break's Paul Farhi was online Tuesday, Oct. 21, at 1 p.m. ET to offer some high- and low-lights.
A transcript follows.
Farhi is a reporter in The Post's Style section, writing about media and popular culture. He's been watching TV and listening to the radio since "The Monkees" were in first run and Adam West was a star. Born in Brooklyn and raised in Los Angeles, Farhi had brief stints in the movie business (as an usher at the Picwood Theater), and in the auto industry (rental car lot guy) before devoting himself full-time to word processing. His car has 15 radio pre-sets and his cable system has 500 channels. He vows to use all of them for good instead of evil.
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Paul Farhi: Greetings, all, and thanks for stopping by...I am, as you know, officially neutral in all things political (Me? Have opinions? Impossible!...), but the election is over as far as the popular culture is concerned. By popular culture, I mean everything from late-night comics to YouTube video makers to musicians to email smart alecks. And in this regard the clear winner is Barack Obama. Has John McCain scored even one popular (i.e., pro-McCain) video? Obama has dozens, dating way back to Obama Girl and and will.i.am song and continuing on all the way to the more recent Ron Howard and Charles Stone/"Wazzup '08" vids (see links below).
Late-night-wise, it's not even close. Leno, Letterman et al love to bash McCain. Here's the actual joke count from the Center for Media and Public Affairs, which runs a monthly tally of political cracks made by Leno, Letterman, Conan, Daily Show and Colbert:
Sept. (latest month available):
Jokes about:
--McCain: 138
--Bush: 58
--Obama: 29.
--Palin: 168.
Me, I'm a little surprised by this. Yeah, young people make the videos and Obama has a huge appeal among young people, but where are the McCain people to spread the word? Is his crowd just too old, too non-tech savvy to get into YouTube? Or is his image just too tired and grumpy, making him the more natural butt of the jokes?
Better yet, what do you think?
Let's go to the phones...
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washingtonpost.com: Video: Ron Howard's Call to Action ( Funny or Die)
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washingtonpost.com: Wassup 2008 ( YouTube)
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Anonymous: Tuesday, October 28, 2008 11:46 a.m.
Paul, Through the years of reading your columns and listening to your responses, I've always admired your sense of humor. What popular culture figures have inspired your ready wit? Or does it come from someone in the past? A Fan from Bluffton, S.C.
Paul Farhi: Aw, shucks. You're much too kind. But now that you mention it, I will have to credit my dear mother! Taught me everything I know. Well, not everything....
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Commie Land, Va. (aka Arlington): I was all set to vote for Sen. Obama but then I saw an RNC ad showing an EMPTY CHAIR with OMINOUS MUSIC and a deep voiceover saying HE ISN'T PREPARED. Now I have made an informed decision to vote for the other guy (not named).
Seriously, I know that history shows us that negative ads work, and this one isn't even from the McCain campaign, but how in the world does someone make a decision based on this piece of superficial dreck? When voting for president, this is the level of decision making?
I cannot wait for next Wednesday and NO MORE POLITICAL ADS.
Paul Farhi: Well, this is a slight digression, but, yes, this campaign has produced few memorable ads, negative or otherwise. I think the thing that will be most remembered, though, is McCain's really negative set of ads since the convention (Obama's gone negative, too, just not quite as...um...hard as McCain). But it'll be the tone of the lot of 'em, not any one in particular.
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Jokes?: None about Biden? What's that old saying, I don't care what they say about me, as long as they spell my name correctly?
Paul Farhi: CMPA counts 11 jokes about Biden in September (I bet there were many more in October), but that's a surprisingly low total. Consider: CMPA counts 12 jokes during the same period about Bristol Palin. And I'm not sure what she's running for.
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Chattanooga, Tenn.: Is the Andy Taylor in the Opie Cunningham video CGI or a muppet? I can't tell.
Paul Farhi: He may have had a little work done, but National Treasure Andy Griffith is still National Treasure Andy Griffith.
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Anonymous: Any chance that the Obama Variety Half Hour might actually be aired during the infomercial time slot? Bill Clinton and those dancing ladies were a good bit.
Paul Farhi: I suspect that would be far more entertaining than the Obama infomercial that will roadblocking primetime TV tonight. Any suggestions for drinking-game phrases? My money's on "main street" and "Wall Street."
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Old Blue in Exile: Cal 41, UCLA 20. Go, Bears!
When I first moved to the D.C. area in the '70s, and in reply to the inevitable question about where I'd gone to school I said "Cal," everyone automatically assumed I meant UCLA, owing to the Bruins' basketball reign-of-terror under John Wooden. Finally, a little r-e-s-p-e-c-t.
Paul Farhi: Well, that's some teeny tiny respect you got there, Old Blue. You can have your semi-meaningless regular season football victory. Bruins will stick with their 11 NCAA basketball titles.
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Michelle Obama's wardrobe: Even before I found out how much Sarah Palin's new clothes cost, I didn't think they were all that. Then some supporter of hers made a crack that Palin couldn't be expected to wear a turtleneck from LL Bean, or clothes from the J. Crew catalog.
My first question is, why not? Heck, since my best(!) turtlenecks are from LL Bean, I took personal umbrage at her remark. Or does that make me a hick or rube?
Also, last night on Jay Leno, Michelle Obama proudly replied to one of his questions that she was wearing a J. Crew ensemble, and that owing to time restrictions she does a lot of her shopping from catalogs online.
Paul Farhi: The funny thing about Palin's outfits was, they were nice, all right, but not $150k nice. I mean, was anyone really impressed by those fancy duds? She looked perfectly presentable, of course. But why did they need 150 large, when they could have made her equally attractive for far less (and defused the criticism of her clothes in the process). But maybe I don't know anything about women's clothes.
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washingtonpost.com: Michelle Obama on Leno ( YouTube)
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The only political ad I like: is the one where McCain is shown talking about how he's voted in line with George W. Bush even more than his Republican colleagues.
Paul Farhi: I'm sort of surprised that the Obama campaign didn't make more use of that now-famous photo of McCain hugging Bush. It's iconic, and illustrates the voted-with-the-president-more-than-90-percent-of-the-time charge very vividly.
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Alexandria, Va.: The thing that galls me about that "empty chair" ad is that there is nobody that is more unprepared to sit in it than Sarah Palin, should a certain 72-year-old fall into poor health. If "unprepared-ness" is your biggest fear (which is what that ad seems targeted at), then why would you take a chance of that happening?
Paul Farhi: Ain't gonna touch this one. Remember, I'm Mr. Neutral.
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Washington, D.C.: Paul, the media has truly skewed the images of the presidential nominees. They are supossed to be unbiased but do not come close. This is not fair to the American public...most folks do not know what goes on inside the Beltway. Do you think some of the lack of Obama jokes have to do with this and some have to do with the fact that peole would be called racist if there were jokes?
Paul Farhi: To be honest, the fear-of-racism thing MAY play some part in this, but I couldn't begin to calculate WHAT part. On the other hand: 1) There are plenty of non-racist ways to joke about Obama or anyone else for that matter; and 2) the news media doesn't make up these jokes or grassroots videos; they're the opinion of voters based on voters' own perceptions, prejudices and points of view.
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Any suggestions for drinking-game phrases?: Yes we can!
Paul Farhi: How about that oldie but goodie, "Change"?
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Radioland: Who does the news for Jack Diamond? Her voice is almost as canned as Diamond's.
Paul Farhi: She also sounds like she's being piped in from a studio on the other side of the galaxy. Very strange.
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McCain Backer: Holy socks! Sheriff Taylor is for Obama?
That's it. Fold up the tents and snuff out the campfire, this weenie roast is over..
Paul Farhi: Yeah, I had the same reaction: I wonder who takes political instruction from Opie, Andy and the Fonz. And please don't make me watch Ron Howard take his shirt off again...
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Obama Show: It's on Wednesday night, not tonight.
Paul Farhi: Oh, jeez. Of course. Thanks.
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Infomercial: will be on at 8 Eastern tomorrow, not tonight (although tomorrow will now be the end of Game 5 of the World Series, not Game 6, as they've just postponed the end of Game 5 from tonight until tomorrow).
Paul Farhi: Yep. Right. We stand corrected. Twice.
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Political Ad: One TV ad that sticks in my mind was produced by Keith Fimian, running for Tom Davis's seat. It's a very negative ad against his competition, Gerry Connolly. It's the ending tag line that got me: Gerry Connolly -- too corrupt, even for Congress. That certainly sets the bar pretty low!
Paul Farhi: That one caught me by surprise. I'd never heard of either of those guys. And I thought, "Am I supposed to vote for one of them?" Then I discovered they're running in a different state--Wyoming, I think--than the one I live in. Phew.
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washingtonpost.com: Game 5 Postponed
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washingtonpost.com: Keith Fimian Ad ( YouTube)
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Commonwealth of Pennsylvania: There are so many commercials here in the Keystone State, especially for Obama but also plenty for McCain, that I wonder whether our local TV station stations are making more money selling that time to them than if they were simply running ads for, say, local businesses. Do local advertisers get partially frozen out of the TV ad market during the presidential campaign, or are those political ads in slots that might otherwise have been used for non-revenue-producing Public Service Announcements or house ads for their own programming? I assume the same thing is occurring in the battleground Commonwealth of Virginia.
Paul Farhi: Yes, local advertisers DO get frozen out when the candidate downpour is heavy. TV stations tend to appreciate the additional revenue from political ads, but with a couple of caveats. Caveat No. 1: Candidates, by law, get the cheapest rates that stations charge. Caveat No. 2: Candidates get dibs on news programming, which is some of the most valuable real estate stations sell.
On the other hand, all those political ads tends to soak up so much time that it drives up what the station can charge for the rest of the fourth quarter, during the holiday "selling" season. Supply and demand, you see...
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Then I discovered they're running in a different state--Wyoming, I think -- than the one I live in. Phew. : Actually Paul, that race is in Virginia, definitely the D.C. Metro area.
Paul Farhi: Ah. That explains why it was on my local news...(And, for the record, I DO know where Fairfax County is).
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Clothes and Politics: Do you remember when Nancy Reagan got flak for buying a pair of jeans at Sears? Seems like those in the public eye can't win. Buy expensive, people complain. Buy cheap, people complain.
Paul Farhi: But wait. These are special circumstances. Nancy Reagan was KNOWN as a clothes horse; she wore all kinds of expensive designer clothes. So the Sears thing kinda looked like she was self-consciously trying to change her image. And the Palin thing just strikes some people as excessive, particularly for a candidate whose appeal is that she's so down to Earth. Most of the time--heck, almost all the time--clothes aren't an issue.
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Arlington, Va.: Okay -- watching Opie take his shirt off, get his nose hair trimmed and apply various toupees was a highlight -- not saying it was a good highlight since I'm eating lunch -- but a highlight. I bet Aunt Bee would vote McCain/Palin...
Paul Farhi: Yeah? And where would Barney Fife and Floyd the Barber fall on the political spectrum?
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Alexandria, Va: I had a 'conversation' with someone over the weekend who buys into that whole thing about Obama's middle name.
I asked if he would not have voted for Obama if he ran 8 years ago before negative connotations of that name. He had no answer. I also asked if he would not have voted for someone with a Russian last name during the cold war, he had no answer.
Paul Farhi: The whole "Hussein" business certainly has gotten bent out of shape. I realize that McCain's supporters are trying to suggest an unsavory association by repeating it endlessly, but it got really crazy when people were shouting "terrorist!" when Obama's name was mentioned. Really? He's a terrorist? Not just a guy with an Arabic middle name? Crazy.
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Tysons, Va.: The pop culture divide is representative to the cultural divide between Obama and McCain supporters. It is about people who embrace change and technology vs. people who are stuck in old ways of doing and old ways of thinking.
P.S. The empty chair commercial by the RNC seems so desperate...
Paul Farhi: See, I doubt this. McCain has plenty of tech-savvy, youthful supporters. Surely, one or two or 200 of them know how to make a clever video. I still can't figure out why they haven't.
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Charlotte, N.C.: Floyd the Barber totally a Ron Paul guy.
Paul Farhi: Ah. Naturally.
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Rockville, Md.: The N..Y Times is reporting the Christian Science Monitor will stop its print edition and move to online only in April. The beginning of a tectonic shift in the j-biz? Should I short ink and paper stocks?
washingtonpost.com: Christian Science Monitor to Publish Online Only Online ( The New York Times, Oct. 28)
Paul Farhi: Oh, wow. Big news, yes. We're all going to be there someday, I think. Problem is, no one in newspapers has figured out how to make online work. Print still pays the bills, though print is in steep decline.
If anyone has the answer to this problem, I have my publisher's number.
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Worse than political ads: are the new Bud commercials about how Bud has "drinkability." Is saying it's "drinkable" the best they can do?
Paul Farhi: Very underwhelming indeed. "Drinkability" actually does have some kind of meaning to beer aficionados, but darned if I know what it is. It just seems to mean "you can drink it." Sort of like saying of a car "it travels from Point A to Point B." Not exactly a very persuasive pitch.
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Alexandria, Va.: Gomer was first going for McCain, but then he was outed, moved to Hawaii, and became a big Obama supporter. Thought you would like to know.
Paul Farhi: I don't even want to think about how Otis would be voting, although I suspect some unscrupulous political operators would be buying his vote cheap.
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Richmond, Va.: Why are they still showing the "I'm Joe the Plumber" ads when he's been revealed as a TAX EVADER? Do we have no morals anymore [that] tax evaders are held up as role models?
Paul Farhi: Well, Joe IS on record advocating lower taxes. I guess he just lowered his own.
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Halloween:1. Best halloween candy? 2. Worst halloween candy? 3. What will you give out?
Paul Farhi: Best Halloween candies, in order:
1. Little Mounds bars (NOT Almond Joys, thank you).
2. Reese Peanut Butter Cups.
3. KitKats and/or Twix.
Worst:
1. Candy Corn.
2. Razor-blade apples.
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VW Ads: I just don't get these -- the ones with Brooke Shields. Are they funny?
washingtonpost.com: Brooke Shields VW Ad
Paul Farhi: I don't really get what Brooke is talking about. Pregnant? What? Huh? But she looks nice.
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Making Online Papers Work: I think the Wall Street Journal charges for their online edition -- but they started in that business mode from the beginning, never "giving it away." The trick is how The Post, Times et al can move from free to "paid" online content. Being old school, I don't know how the Sunday insert (comics, magazines, ads) could translate from print to electronic.
Paul Farhi: Yes, which is why print remains our bread and butter. Plus, online ads are sold for much lower prices than the print kind. The assumption is that people are actually spending time with their newspapers, not darting in and out as they are on the web. Plus, there are thousands and thousands of sites to advertise on on the internet. There are only a few newspapers (and often one) in most towns.
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Anonymous: Why the Candy Corn hate?
Paul Farhi: Always thought they were kind of chalky tasting. Plus, they tend to jam in your teeth, adding to the usual tooth rot of Halloween. Besides, do we really want a candy with the word "corn" in it?
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I just don't get these -- the ones with Brooke Shields. Are they funny?: No. Every time these come on my husband and I look at each other with a puzzled look and say Huh?
Paul Farhi: But at least she's pretty.
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Waldorf, Md.: The McCain Web site offers a kit where you can make signs modeling your name and profession after "Joe the Plumber" ("Ed the Gardener", etc). How would YOUR sign read, sir?
washingtonpost.com: McCain-Palin Web Site
Paul Farhi: Paul the Word Processor.
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Alexandria, Va.: Next time you (or anyone here) run into someone out there who thinks that Obama's middle name is an issue -- ask them if they know John McCain's middle name.
Paul Farhi: Oooh. I do! I do! Call on me....(It's Sidney. Which, now that you mention it, does seem rather sinister).
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Garrison, N.Y.: Surely there are a variety of reasons that popular culture has favored Obama. I've wondered if, under the influence of Fox and talk radio and more recently the blogosphere, bias is just more accepted in the media these days. Also, it seems to me that Obama just isn't a very good object of ridicule -- he doesn't move funny (like Ford), sound funny (like both Bushes), carry himself oddly (like Gore and Dukakis), look cranky (like Dole and McCain), hasn't committed many obvious gaffes (like Kerry), and hasn't flip-flopped very often or spectacularly (like Kerry and McCain).
Paul Farhi: Wait. Stop. Can we please stop conflating the opinions of voters and political operatives with "the media." The media's opinions don't really matter. But to the rest of your point(s): I think while some of that is true, it's incumbent on satirists, parodists and all-around wits to FIND the points of ridicule. "Saturday Night Live," by the way, has done a very poor job of satirizing Obama. They've been much, much tougher on Hillary and McCain.
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Wall Street Journal charges for their online edition : True, but I think they make most of their money by selling to corporations who see WSJ as a must-read. Companies buy a site license so their employees can all access the WSJ online from work.
Paul Farhi: Yes, the Journal is a specialized case. It's a national paper and targeted to business readers. But I think the general point is a good one here: The Journal charges for its exclusive content and has for a long time. I wonder how the newspaper industry would look today if every local newspaper had made the decision long ago not to give away its staff-written content and instead charged readers for this. Although it's not a perfect comparison, newspapers in Japan put very little of their content on their web sites. And newspaper circulation in Japan has held steady for some time.
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Brooke Shields VW Ads: Since the mini-van is targeted for families with young kids, the premise is that people are getting pregnant for the sole purpose of buying the van. Or something.
She does look great....
Paul Farhi: Right. Big stretch there. They may as well have said that VWs have "drinkability."
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Candy Corn: But you can put them inside your mouth upside down and pretend to have fangs. So fun!
Paul Farhi: Fair point. But I still hate Candy Corn!
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RE: Least Favorite Halloween Candy: So, I guess the big problem with candy corn is its "eatability"...
Paul Farhi: Hahahaha....
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Palin couldn't be expected to wear a turtleneck from LL Bean, or clothes from the J. Crew catalog. : Remember that year Sharon Stone was praised for her sleek outfit and she revealed it was a Gap turtleneck? The woman makes the clothes and Valentino or not, Palin's an outback sorta gal.
Paul Farhi: I dunno. She looks perfectly nice to me. But I'm sure she would have looked just as nice in a cheaper outfit.
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Joe the Plumber: This is another example of the media and/or political party shooting the messenger if his/her message is not liked. In Joe's case, he engaged Obama on taxes, with Obama saying he wants to spread the wealth. Joe did not force Obama to pronounce a socialist stance. With that exchange, we know a little more about Obama, and that can factor into everyone's evaluation (regardless if you are politically left or right). But instead, we're focusing on the evils of Joe, which is not pertinent to the election.
Paul Farhi: Good point. Although I'm confused about the "spread the wealth" thing. Isn't Obama saying that taxes should be LOW, so that you can keep more of the income you earn (i.e., so that wealth will spread)? Or have I just missed the socialist for the trees?
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Since the mini-van is targeted for families with young kids, the premise is that people are getting pregnant for the sole purpose of buying the van. Or something. : Aah, because it wouldn't be cool to get the van if you didn't have kids. Okay.
Paul Farhi: We're all learning something here...
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Worst Radio Ad: I was listening to the radio yesterday and couldn't believe I heard an ad for a hangover prevention product. Was this for real? It was during Rush Limbaugh's show. Are they expecting a lot of people to need it on Tuesday night?
Paul Farhi: Or Wednesday morning maybe...My question: Does stuff like that (and the ubiquitous Head On) really work? If not, why are they allowed on the air?
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RE: Brooke: Why is a celebrity who has struggled with highly publicized postpartum depression issues in the past, now the spokesperson for people who make irrational decisions regarding kids, in order to help sell automobiles?
Paul Farhi: I hate to say it, but this occured to me, too (the post-partum thing, not the allegedly irrational decision). But, then, I just chalked it up to thinking too much. I've stopped now.
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VW: I think the purpose of those ads is not necessarily to make sense, but to present the product and generate discussion about the ad, so that the product sticks...
...and here we are.
Paul Farhi: I feel so used!
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If anyone has the answer to this problem, I have my publisher's number.: Have every newspaper agree to move to online and charge money to access it. It doesn"t work if one or two or 10 papers do it. It will only work if every major newspaper does it. If that doesn't work then I'm afraid there will be a song in 10- 20 years that reaches number one on the charts called "Internet killed the organized news collecting source." It will be all the rage in the clubs.
Paul Farhi: Hahahaha...You are entirely right. EVERY newspaper has to make the same move at once (antitrust! antitrust!) for everyone to benefit equally. Not gonna happen.
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Arlington, Va.: Well, the whole point of the progressive tax code (which we've always had by the way) is that the people who make more money pay higher taxes. That spreading the wealth seems like a pretty good idea to me, and I suspect to most people. While it fires up McCain's base I think the moderates are scratching their heads.
Paul Farhi: I'm gonna get killed for saying this, but I don't know why politicians regularly tear down the very notion of paying taxes. It's a dirty word. It's also (duh!) a necessity. I'm not advocating anyone's tax plans here, but you'd think from some of the campaign rhetoric that paying ANY taxes is a terrible idea.
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Atlanta: That VW minivan is a repurposed Dodge and looks it.
Paul Farhi: Anyone remember the Vanagon? One of VW's lesser hits, I think.
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Mayberry, N.C.: We call Andy Griffith the nuclear bomb of N.C. politics. He doesn't endorse often, but when he does KA-BOOM, it's all over.
Paul Farhi: I guess this means Obama's going to take N.C. next week. The Andy Index says it is so.
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But instead, we're focusing on the evils of Joe, which is not pertinent to the election.: It's pertinent to him being praised as a role model! By the law and order party, no less. If you want lower taxes, you legislate them, not refuse to pay (thereby spreading the obligatino to other people to pay for your roads.) Talk about spreading the wealth.
Paul Farhi: True. If he's your role model, you have to take some responsibility for the company you keep.
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Foggy Bottom, Washington, D.C.: Paul, why isn't there a Wiki entry on you? I feel like the whole pop culture experience is incomplete!
Paul Farhi: I'm planning to bypass Wikipedia altogether and go straight to the Rock n' Roll Hall of Fame. I'm hoping that my tragic lack of musical talent doesn't affect my entry.
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Severna Park, Md.: What's the deal with that crazy anchor lady interviewing Biden the other day?
washingtonpost.com: Orlando TV Anchor and Joe Biden ( YouTube)
Paul Farhi: That was nuts, wasn't it? She had four minutes of satellite time with Biden, and I guess she was going to make the most of it. Now she's got her 15 minutes of fame.
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Paul Farhi: Folks, time to go back to the real world (darn it). Next week, the chat is scheduled for Election Day and I'm not sure if we'll be interrupted for some very special programming (Election Day seems to be a big deal around here). So stay tuned for further announcements, if any. In the meantime, a big shout out to everyone. Regards to all!...Paul.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 28, 2008 Tuesday 12:00 PM EST
Chatological Humor: Gramatically Correct;
aka Tuesdays With Moron
BYLINE: Gene Weingarten, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 9739 words
HIGHLIGHT: Gene Weingarten's humor column, Below the Beltway, appears every Sunday in The Washington Post magazine. It is syndicated nationally by the Washington Post Writers Group.
Gene Weingarten's humor column, Below the Beltway, appears every Sunday in The Washington Post magazine. It is syndicated nationally by the Washington Post Writers Group.
At one time or another, Below the Beltway has managed to offend persons of both sexes as well as individuals belonging to every religious, ethnic, regional, political and socioeconomic group. If you know of a group we have missed, please write in and the situation will be promptly rectified. "Rectified" is a funny word.
On Tuesdays at noon, Gene is online to take your questions and abuse. He will chat about anything. Although this chat is updated regularly throughout the week, it is not and never will be a "blog," even though many persons keep making that mistake. One reason for the confusion is the Underpants Paradox: Blogs, like underpants, contain "threads," whereas this chat contains no "threads" but, like underpants, does sometimes get funky and inexcusable.
This Week's Poll.
Not chat day? Visit the Gene Pool.
Important, secret note to readers: The management of The Washington Post apparently does not know this chat exists, or it would have been shut down long ago. Please do not tell them. Thank you.
Weingarten is also the author of "The Hypochondriac's Guide to Life. And Death" and co-author of "I'm with Stupid," with feminist scholar Gina Barreca.
New to Chatological Humor? Read the FAQ.
P.S. If composing your questions in Microsoft Word please turn off the Smart Quotes functionality or use WordPad. I haven't the time to edit them out. -- Liz
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Gene Weingarten: Good afternoon.
I attended an Obama rally last week in Leesburg and then wrote a column about it. This column was for publication after the election. It was a resourceful and courageous bit of journalistic derring-do, making ironic use of the fact that the writer, but not the reader, would be ignorant of the results of the election. This sort of high-wire act would not be attempted by a lesser columnist. Alas, you will never read this column because my editor, Tom the Butcher, informed me that it was "stupid, unfunny, incomprehensible, juvenile and tasteless." The juvenile and tasteless part was because much of the column was about how I had been hiding out in the press section without proper credentials, meaning I could not risk visiting the secret-service-guarded media-only Port-a-Potty, something I biologically needed to do.
Also, not knowing who I was, the Obama campaign people had randomly chosen me to sit behind Obama in the grandstands, waving a placard and cheering on cue, something I would have loved to accept just for the silliness of it, had I been willing to be immediately fired afterwards.
However bad the column was, it did make some observations in this column that were entertaining, and I will share them now:
1. Tens of thousands of people showed up two hours before this event, clogging downtown Leesburg streets. These including a six-year-old child dressed head-to-toe in a bear costume, holding the hand of his ma, who looked just a little sheepish. I suspect this was the kid's drop-dead condition for attendance, and ma really wanted to go see Obama, so
2. While it is obviously an unfair cliche that all Obama supporters are Birkenstockian, peasent-frocked, back-to-the-earth, bunny-hugging greenie socialist hippies, and that an Obama cabinet will resemble a meeting of the Sierra Club circa 1977, I could not help but notice that when I arrived at the metal detectors, security personnel were seizing any objects that might be used as projectiles. Hundreds of these confiscated potential missiles were gathered in piles, and, bizarrely, they were all the same. Apples.
3. Vendors were doing a brisk, impromptu business selling from the tailgates of their cars campaign souvenirs, many of which I strongly suspected were unofficial and unauthorized, such as the ladies' underpants that read, "No More Bush."
4. "In America," Obama told the crowd, "our destiny is not written for us, it's written by us." As always, this line got a thunderous ovation even though -- I must point this out in the spirit of today's poll-- it is an illiteracy. "Destiny," if you believe in such a thing, is predetermined. We can no more write our own destiny as we can predetermine, 10 days before an election, who is going to win. (Oooh, see what I was doing there? Isn't it unspeakably clever? No, Tom the Butcher didn't think so, either. )
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I had a dream last night in which I was taking the written driver's exam. It had a whole bunch of unusual questions, including "Does Barack Obama own The Onion?" (The answer, apparently, was yes.) Also, it asked me to grade the various shapes of human poop (This was clearly occasioned by an upcoming chat posting that I read yesterday), and also to identify 15 or 20 ladies hairstyles. This last question so terrified me, I woke up.
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Some weeks ago, I was IMing with my friend Caitlin Gibson when the following occurred, verbatim.
Cast of characters: Cait is a writer, and the administrator in The Post's legal office. Marcus Brauchli is the brand-new Executive Editor of The Post, and a Very Important Potentially Scary Person.
Caitlin: S--- !
Caitlin: marcus brauchli just asked me for a notepad and i didn't have a new one so i just ripped the top sheet off one on my desk and gave it to him
Me: that is fine.
Caitlin: and i think
Me: that is resourceful.
Caitlin: i doodled cartoon ducks
Caitlin: on the back page of it
Me: hahahahahahaha.
Caitlin: S--- s--- s---.
me: hahahahahaha.
Caitlin: i am trying to find another pad that has the ducks
Caitlin: so i can know it wasn't the one i gave him
Caitlin: but i can't find the ducks
Caitlin: i think i gave him the ducks
Caitlin: one was wearing a party hat
Caitlin: this is what it looked like.
Caitlin: S---. I haven't said ten words to him yet and I give him a cartoon duck in a party hat.
Me: Wow. Can I use this in a chat?
Caitlin: I suppose so. If he has my ducks, and he sees this in the chat, maybe he will forgive me.
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Please take today's poll. So far, and I need to say this kindly, you guys are mostly sucking. The answers are very hard, though. I will explain 'em fairly early in the chat, but will reveal this now: The first question in the poll is what prompted me to ask Pat to write the rest of the poll. It is the verbatim first line of my column on Sunday. That is how it appeared in The Washington Post. Elsewhere in the country, in newspapers that are my clients for syndication, it read "Bob Woodward and I," not "Bob Woodward and me." Yes, there is an interesting story behind this.
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Today we have a tandem CLOD, and they must be viewed in succession. Here they are: First this, then this.
The CPOW is Sunday's Doonesbury. The First Runner up is Thursday's Get Fuzzy. Honorables: Thursday's Prick City, Friday's Rhymes with Orange, Friday's Brewster Rockit, Friday's Speed Bump, and today's ... Baldo!
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Gene Weingarten: Oh, Redskin Chris Cooley has a blog, the same one in which he recently accidentally posted a photograph of his penis. This week, he decided to publish some of his own limericks. They were dreadful, but looked Shakespearean next to those that his readers submitted.
So I submitted two to the blog. Here they are:
Not one of you writes decent verse:
You can't rhyme, and your meter is worse.
Better stay football fans,
And just sit on your cans,
Swill beer, pick your wedgies, and curse.
--
In Britain, Chris, we're just agog
'Cause your fan base seems dumb as a log.
All in all, we would rather
Been been spared all that blather.
(Not the first time you've cocked up your blog.)
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Reston, Va.: Gene -- a friend was at the Obama rally in Leesburg last week and caught a picture of you! Can I send it in?
Gene Weingarten: Sure, but send to weingarten (at) washpost.com. I tend not to post pics of myself here, but will consider for an update.
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Rally for Oba, MA: Why would you have been fired? Does The Post really think you're an impartial political observer? Wouldn't you essentially be the equivalent of an Op-Ed contributor?
Gene Weingarten: Because I cannot literally let myself be used as a political backdrop. It would be the equivalent of contributing money to a campaign. Not allowed, for good reason.
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Ellicott City, Md.: Is "Rocking Chair" the best song by the Band?
Gene Weingarten: No, but you've got the right album. The Band's brown album is probably the best folk-rock album of all time, and it contains the five best songs ever by The Band, which are, in order: Across the Great Divide, Rag Mama Rag, Jemima Surrender, The Night They Drive Old Dixie Down, and Rocking Chair.
Gene Weingarten:"Unfaithful Servant" might be in the mix, too. An amazing album.
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Dude: Caitlin draws really good ducks.
Gene Weingarten: Her mommy is a really talented artist.
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Today's Poll: One great joy of graduating high school is I don't have to take grammar tests anymore. You described the answers as "very hard." Way to sell it, Gene. I'm guessing this poll will rank pretty low in participation. Do you keep records?
Gene Weingarten: It's doing fine.
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Washington, D.C.: My mother attended an Obama rally last weekend in Reno, Nev. She called me later with only one complaint about the event -- that they had confiscated her apple at the gate!
I think you are on to something here, Gene.
Gene Weingarten: It was completely bizarre. Huge piles of apples.
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Fairfax, Va.: Dear Gene,
My partner and I decided that you are the only person qualified to arbitrate on this question. Which is worse:
Opening your mouth in an enclosed space (read shower) just in time to inhale (actually, eat) the other person's fart (of the deadly variety)
or
being on the receiving end of a burp (also the deadly kind) during open-mouthed kissing.
Both of these happened recently (luckily, for balance's sake, to different receivers) and we've been back and forth trying to decide who was worse off. Thoughts?
Gene Weingarten: I am sitting here laughing.
Rib: Why are you laughing.
Me: The concept of "eating a fart."
Rib:
Me: Never mind.
So, that's worse. Simply by the way it is explained.
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Anonymous: I hate this poll more than any poll
Gene Weingarten: I have a dozen posts saying, essentially, "I love this poll more than any other poll."
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Dunn Loring, Va.: I've noticed an interesting phenomenon. As I drive around different neighborhoods, it's rare (I'd venture maybe 2 percent) that I see a house with both an Obama yard sign and an American flag. By comparison, around 10 percent of McCain supporters fly an American flag. Is there some unspoken rule that I missed?
Gene Weingarten: Clearly, people who support Obama hate America.
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Writing our Desti, NY: You may be the only professional author here, but don't get too jealous of the prerogatives that go with it. Obama's comment that we write our own destiny isn't an illiteracy any more than William Ernest Henley's line in Invictus, "I am the master of my fate." As long as these guys don't venture into humor, you should ease up and give them some license to be literary. They're not so bad at it.
Gene Weingarten: It's lazy, though. I don't like it. Sports people are particularly guilty of this, when they talk about controlling their own destiny.
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Reston Peas: So, a few weeks ago my mortgage sharing girlfriend and I decided to split up, and I found out I was getting laid off in the same day. Not one of my favorite days. I'm driving home, impatient, being an arse of sorts. This lady cuts me off, I get annoyed, practically do everything those radio commericals and metro bus ads say not to. Somewhere in there she gets the finger. (I would swear this up and down if I wasn't an atheist) I of course got the finger back. Except it wasn't the usual suspect, but the pointer accompanied by the thumb, calling into question the size of my manhood. Honestly, it made me laugh, thinking about the chat et. al, and realize what a Richard I was being. I took a deep breath and happily obliged (most) traffic laws the rest of my commute.
Gene Weingarten: OOOhh. Possibly it was a reader of these chats! I have advocated just such a move.
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Arlington, Va.: Speaking of The Band, which do you think works best? "I got me a date with a purty little girl from Greece" as Levon Helm sang it or "I got me a date with Boticelli's niece" as Dylan wrote it.
Gene Weingarten: Uh, Botticelli. Botticelli's niece is fabulous.
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ThePo, Ll: I loved today's poll, but my answers aren't in line with the majority. I'll assume it's because I'm right and everyone else is wrong. Agreed?
Gene Weingarten: Probably. He are the correct answers:
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Gene Weingarten: Okay, the poll.
Except for the first answer, which is in dispute, there is something wrong with ALL OF THEM.
1. On the first line, from my column: The confusion seems to have come from my use of "such as" for pompous-sounding effect, instead of "like," which would have been straightforward and carried a "me," not "I". With "such
as," an ambiguity arises and knowledgeable people could come down on either side of this issue. Pat would have gone with "I," because it sounds better, but invites other grammarians to dissent. I wrote "I" and a Post copy editor changed it. The Syndicate copy editor did not. We are not prepared to allege that either was "wrong."
2. The expressioIt is free rein, not free reign. A word usage problem. This is about loosening the reins on someone, not weakening their control of government.
3. In the Pulitzer prize sentence, there is a problem of parallelism. It is presented as a list, but in fact is not a list, because the third item is not parallel. It could be most simply fixed by adding an "and" before the second item in the list.
4. Word usage problem. The musical term "crescendo" is a gradual building, not an apex. You don't really "reach" a crescendo at all. Very common misuse.
5. This is clearly grammatical. The sirens and horns are not surrounded by glass. This is a dangling participle.
6. Who is the better person for the job, not whom.
7. Ooh, so many of you got this wrong. The prize will go to whoever can explain, the point being that 'whoever"
is the subject of "can explain," not the object of "go to."
8. Something can't be five times bigger than something else. It can be five times as big. "Bigger" allows only addition, nut multiplication as the modifying factor. "Five times bigger" is meaningless.
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Regarding Size and Shape of Poop: You published an email in your WED or THURS update regarding the size (width) of a person's poop. Bet you didn't know that there is actually a scale that doctors use to help determine your GI health by the shape of your stool. It is called the Bristol Scale. If you type "Bristol Stool Scale" into wikipedia, you will be greeted with a chart showing the Bristol Scale (with graphical representations).
Gene Weingarten: Liz, can we link to this?
I wonder if Sarah Palin knew about this? Probably not.
washingtonpost.com: Bristol Stool Scale| Bristol Palin
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Chris Cooley: OMG - I really like Chris Cooley and now I have to think that he is a moron. Really, blogging is a dangerous thing!
BYW - is the picture of his penis still on the blog? And why does anyone take a picture of his penis - unless he plans to send it to a doctor because of some really ugly rash?
Gene Weingarten: I mentioned this in the Gene Pool a couple of weeks ago. He blogs naked, and was taking a picture of the Redskins playbook on his lap, and, uh, forgot. He. Was. Naked.
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crescendo: Crescendo means the build-up, not the final state. Word usage.
Gene Weingarten: Correct.
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Washington, DC: Gene, have you ever posted something during a chat that you really shouldn't said? Would you go to the extreme as editing from the chat or do you go by the standard that if it has been posted, it stays there.
Gene Weingarten: The Post doesn't let us yank something unless it libelous or causes grave injury, or something.
I have written HUNDREDS of things that I regret. They're all still out there.
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Splitting Hai, RS: Let's get this straight, Gene:
1. Giving money to a campaign (and having your name posted as a contributor): bad.
2. Sitting on a stage for a compaign: bad.
3. Writing articles in the bloody newspaper itself that call Obama the Man of Destiny or McCane/Palin the Little Ducks with Party Hats: fine.
That's the sort of ethical hair-splitting up with which I will not put.
Gene Weingarten: These are not parallel. I think most people see why. As a columnist I am allowed to/supposed to have and express opinions. I am not allowed to materially help a campaign as a partisan, other than what I do openly and publically, in the course of my job.
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New York, NY: Metro to Randomly Search Riders' Bags: Your thoughts? I'm a die hard civil liberties fan, and find security theater of this sort offensive. I'm not sure you've ever given a position on privacy rights in this field.
Gene Weingarten: Well, I'm not sure. I don't object to it at a football game. This seems different, but I'm not sure why, if there is a perceived threat.
I don't like it, though.
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Ducky: Cait -- Would you really want to work for a guy who did anything other then smile if he saw your party duck? I think this is a good way to judge the man behind the job. If he smiles potential good guy.
Gene Weingarten: Truth is, he'd smile.
And if he's reading this chat, he'll REALLY smile.
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Poorgramm, AR: From Merriam-Webster:
Crescendo 1 a: a gradual increase ; specifically : a gradual increase in volume of a musical passage b: the peak of a gradual increase : climax
Gene Weingarten: Aaaaugggh.
I hate that, but even allowing that, in this sentence, it is not the peak of a gradual increase.
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Theba, ND: Don't forget that "Up On Cripple Creek," with its great lyrics and fun ending ("But deep down, I'm kinda tempted/To go and see my Bessie again") is on that album too.
Gene Weingarten: You're right. Gad, what an album. A monster album.
Hey, when we were both about 25, Rick Danko and I looked almost identical. Practically indistinguishable.
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HoCo, MD: I have an Obama sign, an ACLU membership, and an American flag. I know all the words to God Bless America, too.
I can't wait for this election to be over so I can start existing again.
Gene Weingarten: Noted.
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Mud: I'm in Baghdad. I have to walk about a block-and-a-half to the toilet when I wake up to pee in the middle of the night and now that it's started to rain I have to walk that block-and-a-half in six inches of mud. On the bright side nobody's shooting at me. BTW, I voted for Barak Obama and so did everybody in my office.
Gene Weingarten: Based on similar reports about absentee balloting, my theory is that Obama has already won the election.
Come home safely.
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Arlington, Va.: Gene,
If elected, will Barack Obama be the first ever second-generation American President? It has been difficult to absolutely confirm on line, but it appears that both parents of all prior US Presidents were born in the US (or the 13 colonies).
To me, this seems even more remarkable than him being, you know, black. It means that, for all our immigration debate, we really are a land of opportunity.
As a Professional Journalist whose beat includes Presidential ancestry, can you help us out here?
Gene Weingarten: I can help, and you are wrong.
I am proud of myself here: I checked one name, and was right. There might be others.
Both of Andrew Jackson's parents were born in Carrickfergus, Ireland. The emigrated here two years before Andy was born in 1760-something.
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Hickeyville: Here's one for you , Gene --
I am a 34-year-old married female. I am in the process of looking for a new job. I'm a good interview, but I have one issue- I have a strawberry birthmark on my neck that looks like a hickey. It's definitely noticeable, and I have yet to find a cover up that completely conceals it. I am trying to figure out if it's a good idea to bring it up in the interview -- something like, "Oh, just an fyi, this is a birthmark on my neck, I know it looks rather like something else, just wanted to be upfront about it". Or something like that. Or should I not say anything at all and hope they don't notice? They totally will, though. On the first day of my current job, my manager told me that she didn't care what I did extracurricularly, but I had to look professional at work and then nodded at neck. This has happened a few times. Of course, when I tell them it's a birthmark, they're extremely apologetic. So I'm conflicted. What would you do in this situation?
Gene Weingarten: I would do nothing.
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New York, N.Y.: When they search you before entering an airport or a football game, you know ahead of time they will search you before you enter a private facility. You buy a ticket based on the idea that you must submit to the search to enter the property.
The random searches that the NYPD undertakes before allowing you to enter the PUBLIC mass transit system is something completely different and bothers the hell out of me. When it was new, I was shocked at how few people shared my view on this.
Gene Weingarten: Well, if they announce it as a program, you know ahead of time, right?
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WTF?: I've called my husband at work three times this month and have been told he and so and so were out to lunch. I ask him about his day when he gets home and he says he was so busy he didn't eat. I don't think there's any hanky panky happening, but why would he lie to me?
Gene Weingarten: If you don't think there is hanky panky, why are you asking us, and not him?
You think there is hanky panky.
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No Nookie-ville: Hi Gene. My boyfriend of five years has little to no sex-drive. I was always more interested in sex than he was, but over the past year or two, we have become all but celibate. Counseling is probably down the road, but first the plan is to rule out physical causes. There is a plan for a visit to an actual doctor, but as you are my window into the male brain and body... what could cause a 29-year-old male to lose interest in sex? FWIW his "equipment" still works; it's just that sex has just become as urgent as folding the laundry: it should be done, but it can be put off until later, like next month. I love this man. I want to marry him. But sometimes I am so depressed about our sex life I want to cry. Please, please, please lend me what insight you can.
Gene Weingarten: I have no explanation, but he should definitely seek counseling and medical advice. AT 29, this should not be the case. I'm not sure why you would want to marry someone and look at a lifetime of no sex.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Metro time waster. As someone pointed out in Dr. Gridlock's discussion: here is how the dance plays out.
Sir, you have been selected blah blah blah. No, I do not consent. You cannot ride metro and must leave. (you walk out of the station, wait a minute and simply re-enter)
Like I said, a time waster.
Gene Weingarten: Good point!
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Editor's note: I see that washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties. Are you a third party, Gene, since the paper Post and the e-Post are different entities?
And, if so, and if no one is responsible for your posting, may we discuss a certain hygiene/shaving issue that has been bubbling beneath the surface for months now?
washingtonpost.com: Allow me: No and no.
Gene Weingarten: And we know who calls the shots here.
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Washington, D.C.: My friends and I have been discussing: Is there any one book, movie, or TV show, that having as a favorite is an automatic deal breaker? What interests would prove to you that someone is totally unfunny, has a different worldview, and that this relationship would never work?
Some say "Da Vinci Code" as a favorite book is a deal breaker. The best example I've come up with is ruling out someone whose favorite television show is "Everybody Loves Raymond."
Gene Weingarten: Dan Quayle's favorite movie was, famously, "Ferris Beuller's Day Off."
I judge people by their taste in comic strips, where there are obvious and cliched deal breakers. But there are also subtle red flags. I'm worrying about someone who claims to like "Prickly City" or "Mallard Fillmore."
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Anonymous: As a male, I have a question that I never had the courage to ask, especially since I believe my source is something I heard Howard Stern say years ago. Is it true that in many breast enlargement surgeries that some women lose nipple feeling? In other words, the woman has decreased abilities for sensual pleasure, all in exchange for supposedly making herself more attractive to men? (Only to learn that, for a lot of men, that is not an issue?) If this is so, shouldn't there be greater warnings to women, or do they know this and proceed with the surgeries anyway?
Gene Weingarten: A quick Google search confirms this. Permanent loss of sensation is not uncommon. As you point out, the irony here is disturbing.
I don't get the whole breast enhancement thing, but I'm not a woman and don't pretend to understand the calculus behind it.
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Another Error: Succubus and Incubus should have been capitalized, as they are proper names, yes?
Gene Weingarten: No, they are not.
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Pat the Perfect, ME: Re: Crescendo. I'm not surprised that the meaning of "peak" has made it into Merriam-Webster, since it's often used that way and MW is a descriptive dictionary; i.e., it's describing what's said out there, not what OUGHT to be said. So is the dictionary that The Post uses, Webster's New World; our edition, however, still doesn't give that meaning, surprisingly.
What surprises me is that as a musical term meaning to grow louder, "crescendo" is learned by every child who ever studies a musical instrument, which must be a huge proportion of the population. So you'd think that a meaning that's so different from the original wouldn't catch on. I guess people either forgot or didn't like the alternatives, such as "climax."
I think using "crescendo" to mean peak is especially unfortunate if you're talking about music. But still, i think it's sloppy and that it prevents its use as a great word for its original meaning, a big swell of volume.
Gene Weingarten: I'm not sure that the percentage of kids learning music remains high, Pat.
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Strawberry mark: I would cover it up with a scarf or turtle neck for the interview. I had an informational interview with my friend's cousin the other day. He is highly qualified, has an impressive resume, and was recently laid off. He deserves a new job -- he is highly competent and experienced, pleasant, resourceful and is networking like mad. However, he has some sort of skin condition and has many, many (I'm talking hundreds, possibly) small cysts or warts on his face. There are so many that it is distracting -- for the first 20 minutes, I could barely concentrate on anything he was saying because I was so curious about his condition. You don't want your interviewers to be distracted or speculating about anything but your qualifications for the job and fit with the organization. Please cover it up.
Gene Weingarten: See next post.
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Birthmark on neck: Um, I've done a lot of recruiting, and believe me, the majority of people will not think it's a hickey. Even if it looks exactly like one. Most people will assume it's a birthmark or other sort of mark (what's that mark that violin players get on their necks?). Because, honestly, most recruiters are going to assume that most people are avoiding behavior that would engage in hickeys before a job interview.
Gene Weingarten: Getting many strong opinions on this. Who knew?
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Whoever vs. Whomever: I disagree and still think it is "whomever can explain". The "can explain..." part modifies the "whomever" (the sentence would make sense without it; it simply specifies the person to whom you are referring). "Whomever" is still the object of the "goes to". It is not the subject of the sentence as a whole.
Gene Weingarten: You are wrong.
This is not debatable. It's simple grammar.
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Capitol South, DC: Are you familiar with New Zealand's anti-speeding campaign, " Speeding. No one thinks big of you." I love that it's state sponsored.
Gene Weingarten: Yep. We've linked to this before. It's great.
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Leesburg, VA: You didn't give us the correct answer for #2 in the poll - the one about the hole-in-one and pants-vibrating fart.
You're #2 answer is actually for question #3 on the poll, etc.
Inquiring minds want to know!
Gene Weingarten: Oh, sorry. Many of you are wrong about that one. The verb is not singular, it is plural. One of the few who.... The subject is few, not "one."
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For Liz: Thank you, thank you for the link to the Ricky Gervais and Thandi Newton clip this morning. It is only moderately NSFW.
washingtonpost.com: You're welcome. For everyone else, here are Newton and Gervais reenacting a scene from the Sarah Palin-inspired porno flick.
Gene Weingarten: Very nice! Thandie does this WAAY better than she did Condi in W.
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The Gym: Gene,
I have a question which I believe you are uniquely qualified to answer. I recently joined a new gym in town - the membership an anniversary gift from my wonderful SO - and have been working out there every morning. I love to run, and because I'm a freak of nature, I will sometimes run on a treadmill for an hour and a half at a time while watching the news. I don't know, it's my therapy. Oh, I should also mention that I'm a 26-year-old woman, but look considerably younger. People assume my 21-year-old sister is older than me. So anyway, I'm running along yesterday, and a man in his late 60s, probably, approaches me. He says he admires that I've been running since he got there and he's showered and leaving now, and that I'm a very beautiful girl. That last bit makes me uncomfortable, but I decided being pleasant wouldn't kill me, and he walked away anyway. Then, this morning, same thing. He walks up to me while I'm running, carries on a semi-flirty conversation, harasses me because he thinks I forgot his name (I didn't), and leaves. I don't know why, but he makes me nervous. Is he, do you think -- harmless? Should I not worry about anything yet? Am I paranoid? If he makes a habit of commenting on my appearance, what do I do? I hate conflict but I also hate feeling leered at. You're my dad's age, but far less likely to drive 1,000 miles here to shoot someone, so I'm asking you. Thanks! Virtual panties, etc.
Gene Weingarten: I'm not sure what you're asking. Yes, he is hitting on you, but you already know that. Yes, it is starting to make you uncomfortable, so you have to stop it. And yes, you are going to have to do something uncharacteristic that makes you seem unfriendly and cold, which shouldn't have to be, but in many ways the world is unfair.
Next time stop, and tell him flatly, without a smile, that you're sorry, but you don't like to talk while exercising. He will go away and not come back unless he is a REAL jerk, which he probably isn't.
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Who is Pat the Perfect: As a relatively new chatter, can you give us a quick background on who Pat is?
Gene Weingarten: Her name is Pat Myers, and she is the world's funniest copy editor. She works at The Post and is a close friend of mine.
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Nether Scaggsville, Md.: Do you or your readers ever do this?
When it is my turn to be waited on in some retail transaction, I don't continue to wait patiently for the functionary to finish her conversation with her co-workers, her cousin on the cell phone, or even the departing customer before me. I neutrally and clearly state my order, with a "please", and that is usually enough to bring the person around. I'm sure they think I am rude, but I don't give a damn.
Of course if the functionary is attending to some critical personal or business need (unjamming the register tape, putting a call on hold, or concluding a sneeze), I do mildly wait it out. I am not a maniac. But as I am now in the late-afternoon tea-time of my life, I am not going to let anyone else waste my time.
Gene Weingarten: I do it wordlessly, through comically impatient body language. Must less honest. Liz, can you link to a column I did about this a couple of years ago? Search for me, stamps, and Louisiana Purchase.
washingtonpost.com: Below the Beltway, ( Post Magazine, Sept. 24, 2006)
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Pat the Perfect, ME: Re "The prize will go to whomever/whoever wins the race":
This is a tricky construction, because "whom" is an object and usually follows the preposition "to." But in this case, "whom" is replaced with the whole phrase "whoever wins the race" -- "who" must go with "wins." In old-fashioned English, one could say "to him who wins the race"; now we'd say "to whoever wins" or "to the person who wins."
Gene Weingarten: Exactly.
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TP Questi, ON: Do you know what average toilet paper usage is? This week on the PostSecret Web site (yeah, I know I have no life), someone sent a postcard saying "I strongly suspect that I use a LOT more TP than other people... but I have no way of knowing." This has left me really paranoid that I use more TP also. What if my roommates think I am some sort of excessive TP user?! I thought if anyone could help me out, it's you.
Gene Weingarten: I happen to know the answer, or part of the answer, based on a study I wrote about many years ago. There is almost an even divide among women, after peeing: Half use two squares and half use three squares. (Which is why squares are so small: To allow both options.
I do not believe quantity has been studied while pooping, though topology and morphology has: Half the people fold it, and half bunch it.
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Don't you remember: There was one thing you wrote in this chat that WAS removed, I believe, because it would have cut the panty-throwing by a significant amount....
Gene Weingarten: No, I don't. Neither does Liz. Do you wish to tell us?
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Indianapolis, Ind.: One sunny day in 2009 an old man approached the White House from across Pennsylvania Avenue, where he'd been sitting on a park bench.
He spoke to the U.S. Marine standing guard and said, "I would like to go in and meet with President Bush."
The Marine looked at the man and said, "Sir, Mr. Bush is no longer president and no longer resides here."
The old man said, "Okay" and walked away.
The following day, the same man approached the White House and said to the same Marine, "I would like to go in and meet with President Bush."
The Marine again told the man, "Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Bush is no longer president and no longer resides here."
The man thanked him and, again, just walked away.
The third day, the same man approached the White House and spoke to the very same U. S. Marine, saying, "I would like to go in and meet with President Bush."
The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at the man and said, "Sir, this is the third day in a row you have been here asking to speak to Mr. Bush. I've told you already that Mr. Bush is no longer the president and no longer resides here. Don't you understand?"
The old man looked at the Marine and said, "Oh, I understand. I just love hearing it."
The Marine snapped to attention, saluted, and said, "See you tomorrow."
Gene Weingarten: Nice.
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Assu, ME: I have often felt awkward about using "assume" vs. "presume" in a sentence. Because you are the new "Mr. Language Person," I hope that you can give me some guidance.
Sample sentence: "I presume that you are qualified to become Vice President of the United States." Is this correct?
Gene Weingarten: I had to look this up. I thought I wouldn't, but I did.
In the sense you are using the words -- meaning, to suppose, or take for granted that -- these words are essentially interchangeable. However some 80 years ago a very learned wordsmith noted a very minor difference between them: "Assume" tends to connote something taken on faith, or through belief, whereas "presume" suggests you suppose it based on more empirical fact and evidence. These are trifling differences, of interest mostly to persons like me and Ms. Perfect.
Your example, though, is appalling. When one is dealing with the potential vice president, one must not presume competence. One must demand proof.
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Hopes, MA: Hi Gene, I know you've been busy and all, but you forgot to mention Baby Hope's birthday the last two weeks! She turned three on October 15th, and let me tell you she would give you a run for your money.
Her new favorite joke is that when she goes in to use the potty she will pull down her pants and stand facing the toilet. Then she tells me that she wants to pee like a boy. I get increasingly nervous as this goes on, since I know that she still doesn't have a whole lot of control here. But she just looks at me sideways and giggles and won't sit down until she thinks she has "sneezed" (that means teased) me enough.
I emailed a photo to you and Liz if you want to share it.
Gene Weingarten: Ah, here we go:
washingtonpost.com: Baby Hope
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Name Ga, ME: Gene, as the wise arbiter of all things name-related, I need your help.
My husband and I are completely stuck on names for our soon-to-be-born son. He wants something really unique and based in old legends/mythology. I'm afraid that the child will be teased endlessly and be labeled with "weird." (The name my husband currently likes is Tyr - pronounced like tear as in teardrop).
What do we do? The middle name has already been chosen (passing on a family name) so unfortunately that's not an option for balancing out. I'm getting a bit stressed, although we still have a couple months to decide. I think this is one of the biggest decisions I've ever had to make and I'm afraid of screwing it up.
Gene Weingarten: The answer to this is simple. In choosing a name, each parent has total veto power and must not be bashful about using it. A veto need no be defended. It just is, and we move on.... This tends to militate toward safety (if not boredom), which is fine. Names should not be an exercise in ego for the parents.
Tyr is unconscionable, as you well know, so put your foot down. No. Next?
The Rib and I had a couple of vetos exercised; in a loving marriage, these should not be a strain, they are simply a valuable filtering device. I said Molly would not be Kate. I had my reasons but was not called upon to explain them. She said Molly's middle name could not be Eliza. Again, that was simply accepted.
We had named Dan six years before he was born, so that evoked no debate at all. Liz, can you link to the column I did about Dan's name? Search me and kamikaze and "have no scar"
washingtonpost.com: 5 for the Fourth, ( Post Magazine, July 1, 2001)
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Los Angeles, Calif.: How excited were you to find that Kathleen Parker wrote an entire serious-ish column last week that apparently used your column as its main source?
washingtonpost.com: Tragic Flaw, ( National Review Online, Oct. 24)
Gene Weingarten: Her MAIN point came not from the column, which mentioned the research study, but from the chat, where YOU guys first made the Palin connection.
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Jargonville, Mo.: Because you're so uptight about pronunciations, I thought I would ask how you pronounce "what."
Yes, that common word is correctly pronounced "hwhat," as in you sound out a breathy h first. (I believe Stewie in an episode of Family Guy keeps saying it that way). I did not believe my friends when they told me this until I checked the dictionary and realized, with much horror, they were right. The same rule actually applies to any word that starts with "wh." I've tried to be good and say it right, but I just can't stand it! Please, please tell me that even the pronunciation dictators will let me get by with saying good ol' "what."
Also, I have a suggestion for a new poll: words or phrases that most need to die a painful death. My candidate is interface.
I'm a reporter at Midwestern newspaper, and one of the local mayors I frequently have to interview loves to use this word in place of "speak," as in, "I will interface with the public on upcoming changes."
It's like nails on a chalkboard every time she says it. This is not her only sin - she loves anything that she thinks makes her sound more serious. But it is by far her most egregious and common one. Please, Gene, interface with us and tell us all hope is not lost.
Gene Weingarten: All hope is lost. Liz, can you link to my column on how I pronounce "what"?
(Search me and "Michael Agnes.")
Gene Weingarten: (Eventually, there will be no topic about which I haven't written a column.)
washingtonpost.com: Below the Beltway, ( Post Magazine, Sept. 17, 2006)
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Eating a Fart: A friend of mine once got so upset with a U-Haul rental place that he angrily suggested that the gentleman "Suck a fart out of his a--"
Gene Weingarten: This reminds me of the best and most shocking line in the brilliant, tragically underrated movie "Citizen Ruth."
I cannot repeat it here, or even intelligibly allude to it.
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New York, N.Y.: Would talking the the gym management about that guy be wise?
Gene Weingarten: I don't think so because I don't think he has stepped over a line yet. He is being slightly rude and transparent.
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For the Female Gym Runner: Wear a wedding band to the gym. Doesn't have to be fancy or anything. Problem (hopefully) solved.
Gene Weingarten: That won't do it, even if he notices the band.
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Pat the Perfect, ME: Gene Weingarten: Oh, sorry. Many of you are wrong about that one. The verb is not singular, it is plural. One of the few who.... The subject is few, not "one."
Well, the subject is "Gene" and the verb is "is." But then we get to the second part of the sentence, "one of the few people who is/are capable of xxx." Gene is not one of the few people period; he's one of the FEW PEOPLE WHO ARE CAPABLE OF XXX. So the agreement isn't between "one" and "people." It's Gene IS ONE of -these few people]/
Gene responded to someone earlier that the answer was "simple grammar." It's not simple grammar. It's complicated grammar. But it's not a judgment call.
Gene Weingarten: Okay, ma'am. What you said.
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RE: Who is Pat the Perfect?: And you forgot -- she may or may not be sleeping with the Emperor Consort of the Post Style Invitational.
Gene Weingarten: That is a private matter between Pat, Mr. Perfect, the Empress, and the Emperor consort. It is not our business to make assumptions.
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Mountain View, Calif.: As I was doing the poll, it seemed to me that the sentence about the Arena Stage building was grammatically correct, although I'd prefer a semicolon to the dash for formal writing. What I can't figure out is how the sirens and car horns are going to get inside that thick glass wall surrounding Sixth and Maine. And do they enter by themselves, or are they accompanied by vehicles?
Gene Weingarten: Exactly.
Gene Weingarten: That wording -- or something very close to it -- is actually on the wall at Arena. They have yet to correct the error. It is a classic dangling participle.
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DowntheDrai, IN: Gene --
What was your reaction to Sunday's "Doonesbury?" I have trouble with this whole "attack Joe the Plumber" thing. For all you, I or Trudeau knows, Joe's a great plumber -- or maybe a terrible one -- but why should we care? The cartoon comes across as just a vicious personal attack on the guy for having the temerity to disagree with Obama.
So I figured there must be a deeper point being made -- some metaphor about the candidates -- but if Trudeau is trying to suggest that one of them will prove to be an inept bumbler who doesn't know what he's doing -- well, Obama's the one without the track record of accomplishment, but somehow I don't think that's where Trudeau was going.
Was this funny and I just missed it?
washingtonpost.com: Doonesbury, ( Oct. 26)
Gene Weingarten: Yes, it was funny and you just missed it. First off, you need to understand that because of Sunday comic deadlines, Trudeau must have punched this out in minutes, the day after the last debate, when it became manifest that Joe the Plumber was not a licensed plumber.
Is this fair satire? Yep. Why? Because Trudeau knows exactly as much about Joe the Plumber as McCain apparently did before he hauled him out to be the CENTERPIECE of his failing, desperate campaign. McCain had already created this ridiculous stalking horse, and Trudeau is doing exactly what his job is: Exposing the hypocrisy behind it.
It doesn't matter whether Joe is a competent, unlicensed plumber. He's a caricature, and McCain made him one.
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Washington, D.C.: Deal-breaker TV show: "Curb your Enthusiasm." It tells me that this person enjoys embarrassment humor, and I see that trait as a personality flaw.
washingtonpost.com: Man, I love that show. And the egg is usually on Larry David's own face, so I don't see the problem.
Gene Weingarten: All humor is embarrassment humor.
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Art, VPL and paparazzi: Gene, this is a long but interesting profile of Ron Galella, the "first true paparazzo" (though he seems to consider himself more of an artist; his work is in the MoMA and other "legit" places). I was amused to read that his views on VPL are bang on with yours:
"For me, it's the mystery. What's behind her clothes? What excites me is panty lines - and yet the women, they don't want no panty lines. To me, it's the sexiest thing."
We know your love for VPL, but have you ever discussed your views on the paparazzi? Do you think this guy's pictures are art? Some of them look just as invasive as today's pap shots, but some of them are kind of striking.
Gene Weingarten: I think Ron Gallela is an artist specifically BECAUSE he was first. He created an art form which has been imitated by many people far less skilled than he is.
He is saying EXACTLY what I have said about VPL, pointing out the irony of men liking it and women trying to hide it; an intriguing battleground oer the power of sex.
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Germantown, Md.: The Internet Movie Database has the quote from "Citizen Ruth". How did I miss that movie? Love Laura Dern and it sounds pretty good!
Gene Weingarten: It's better than pretty good. It's blindingly brilliant. I have no idea why it is not better known.
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Metro searching: It's more intrusive because people rely on Metro as a part of their daily life, in a way that sporting events and even flying is not. The article says the searches will "focus" on explosives, but doesn't exactly say what and what is not permitted. Do people have to worry about carrying perfectly legal, but potentially dangerous objects? Do I need to edit my bag to TSA standards? What happens if they find something they deem inappropriate? What is considered "explosive"? Firecrackers? Flammable liquids, such as lighter fluid for your bbq? What about something with which they are unfamiliar?
I'm not saying it's wrong, but clarification would be very helpful. The whole food police debacle a few years ago doesn't inspire confidence in the method in which they will implement this new program.
Gene Weingarten: The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced it's wrong, and pointless. A terrorist COULD decline to be searched, then come back in.
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Warshington: How many of the 15 Amazon reader reviews of "Old Dogs" did you personally write?
Gene Weingarten: Not a one. I have never reviewed my own book, though without my knowledge my kids once ananymously, hilariously reviewed my Hypochondria book. They were 17 and 14 at the time. They recommended the book, then noted that they had never before recommended a book to anyone, then noted that this fact is particularly odd because they are a librarian. This happened to be the first review of the book, and it is forever archived at Amazon.
I do think anonymous self-review is sadly legion in Amazon: If you look skeptically at many books with only a few reviews, you can often get a whiff of a suspicion of it. I think Amazon reviews should have to be signed.
They can also be annoying to a writer. The only less-than-good review of Old Dogs so far -- the reason it is four and a half stars, and not five stars -- is from some person who never bought the book, never read the book, never even LOOKED AT the book. She asked that a free page of it be sent to her Kindle reading machine, and was apparently disappointed that this page did not contain a photo of a dog.
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TP: No way do most women use 2 or 3 squares. Absolutely not. I am stingy with TP, to the point that I sometimes feel a trickle down my leg after I'm standing and zipping up my pants (darn it).
And I can tell you from being in the bathroom with my girlfriends that they use WAY MORE than two or three squares. In fact, I am appalled by how much they use. They will let the TP roll over 2-3 times' worth.
Gene Weingarten: Just for wee-wee?
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Speaking of Grammar...: Is it just me, or is anyone else bugged by the Obama ad where he talks about it being the responsibility of every parent to sit down and read to "their" child. I'm an Obama fan, but shouldn't someone have vetted that before they put it out there? You know the he knows that "their" isn't correct as it's used in the ad. Is he pandering to people who don't know good English? Or to those who think using proper English is elitist?
Gene Weingarten:"Their" in that circumstance has become acceptable. I used to hate it, but have become resigned to it because it is not an ignorance so much as it is an agreed-upon convenience. "His or her" is clumsy, and there is no less clumsy alternative. I don't hate it. Anymore. I've been beaten down by this one.
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Communist Arlington, Va.: Gene,
Have you seen this brilliant Web site yet?
Gene Weingarten: I am not as impressed with this as others are.
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Anonymous: Yesterday I was waiting for my order at a cafe. There was a mother with a young (perhaps 5-year-old) daughter, also waiting. With them was a man who appeared to be the mother's boy friend. At first he "play-punched" at the little girl, who screamed. Mother told him to cut it out. Then he did it again, and again, and again, each time coming closer to her. Eventually, she stopped crying. Then he took out a cigarette lighter, flicked it on, and pushed it toward her face (really fast). Again mom told him to cut it out (while the little girl cried and tried to hide). Again, he kept doing it and doing it and doing it, bringing the flame closer and closer to her face. I was absolutely horrified, but couldn't think of anything to do other than glaring at him across the room, (and yes, he saw me, and smirked) since the mother quit protesting pretty quickly. What would you have done?
Gene Weingarten: I hate question like this because they're so disturbing, and there's no good answer.
I don't think you do anything, except feel bad afterward. You're looking at bad parenting, but I don't think you're looking at anything tangible enough to intercede. I'd like to hear if someone has any better ideas.
Gene Weingarten: I was talking to a friend last night who recommended something interesting: Go up to the child and say something neutral, but friendly: "Hi, how you doing? I like your shoes!" Whatever. This does not directly confront the parents, but tells the child there is an adult there who considers her a human being and likes her and is concerned for her wellbeing. Might shame the adults into acting more in her interest.
I think this is good advice.
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McLean, Va.: I wish that elementary and high school English courses would bring back the old and arcane practice of diagramming sentences. Diagramming sentences helped me more with my grammar and word usage than any other activity in school. I wish I could find an old (i.e. pre-Chomsky) book of American English grammar.
Gene Weingarten: I believe Ms. Perfect, who is perfect, says she could never competently diagram sentences. I might be misremembering, and will be so informed forthwith.
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Citizen Ruth: I believe that the quote Gene is referencing is listed on the movie's IMDb memorable quotes page. Very easy to spot, even if out of context it does disturb one's lunch a bit.
Gene Weingarten: It is, apparently, but it must be seen in context to have its humor understood. It is uttered by citizen Ruth at a point when the people she is with have no reason to believe her to be anything but a lady. It comes as something of a major surprise.
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Costu, ME: I know you've taken the position before that there is no such thing as an offensive Halloween costume. However, what about this yard display? Is it wrong?
Gene Weingarten: There is a distinction between what costume is worn at a party -- where guests have to abandon their self-righteousness at the door -- and what is placed out in public view for passersby to see.
I was initially on the fence on this; I do see it as public art, and certainly as free speech. But I asked myself how I would regard it if it were an Obama effigy, and the answer is it would feel really, really wrong. If joking about lynching is wrong in one direction, it's wrong in the other direction. Decendy compels that this one come down.
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Hickey Birthmark: I have the same thing. Wear a scarf.
Gene Weingarten: Okay!
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Incorre, CT: No way do women only use two or three tp squares after urinating. It's far too few and it is likely their hands would get wet with urine. No doubt you were citing a study conducted by a man.
washingtonpost.com: Agreed. I use at least 8 - 15 depending on the thickness of the TP.
Gene Weingarten: Good lord.
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Old Dogs: As my dog ages (he's 13 now) he is more and more likely to perform a traveling poop, i.e. spanning many steps. Is this an old dog thing?
Gene Weingarten: Indeed, I even mention it in the book.
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Desti, NY: You're right that destiny is written for us. But I've always believed that someone who can write her own destiny is a go-getter, someone who is unwilling to accept what Fate has in store and goes out and creates a reality of her own making. In that spirit, it seems to make sense.
Gene Weingarten: Then you should say "write your own future."
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Leesburg: Me again suggesting, directly this time, you change the way the link to Prickly City has been spelled. The "ly" has been omitted!
Gene Weingarten: Not an error. It is how I refer to it.
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Misdirecti, ON: The answers in the poll result remove the apostrophe from the "It's" at the beginning of each option. As if "It's got" wasn't imprecise enough (in the poll), in the results it's grammatically incorrect as well.
I would inveigh more forcefully if I weren't somewhat suspicious that this might have been deliberate.
washingtonpost.com: Nope. The polling software either a) stripped them out because of some odd tech glitch or, b) is becoming self aware and having a joke at our expense.
Gene Weingarten: It ALWAYS does that. Drives me nuts.
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Tip or Not?: I get lunch from local restaurants. I order on the phone, show up, pay, and leave. Should I leave a tip?
Gene Weingarten: I do, but just a little. Someone had to bag up the food for you.
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Don't Treadmill on Me: If headphones and a ring don't work, try farting. Eat chili before you run and then, true or not, squeak one out and say "ooh boy, got the trots, I'm done for the day!"
Gene Weingarten: Hahaha.
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Toled'OH: In response to the bathroom incident described in last Wednesday's update, I would like to hear somebody explain how anyone has ever dropped car keys in the toilet. Why would keys ever be anywhere other than in a pants pocket or a handbag while their possessor is engaged in bathroom activity?
Gene Weingarten: It's a fair question. I can't answer it, but I can tell you something that a man in a Verizon store once told me: Cell phones getting dropped in the toilet is so common it is basically an epidemic. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred, it is caused when a man has his cell phone in his shirt pocket, and bends over to pull up his pants.
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Woman, going #1: I went to the bathroom mid-chat, and absentmindedly pulled off TP for my wee - then caught myself before I used it because I remembered the chat, so had a chance to count.
13 squares. And it's nice and fluffy, too.
Gene Weingarten: WOW.
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Speaking of baby names: In the newspaper from my childhood home, population approximately 600, in the middle of nowhere Oklahoma, there were two baby announcements this week. One named "Braydyn", and the other (completely unrelated) named "Tatym".
It's in middle-of-nowhere middle-America now. It can't be stopped.
Gene Weingarten: It is just so awful. The Kaitlyn phenomenon.
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Publically: Ew. Hate that variant. Ew.
Gene Weingarten: That is a variant? That is a mistake, no? Did I write that?
If I did, it is time for me to go.
I loved today's chat. Thank you all.
I am sorry there will be no updates this week. For the next month or two, updates will be sporadic. I will tell you when, during the chat. The Gene Pool will remain always active.
See you next week. Election Day. Excitement.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 28, 2008 Tuesday 11:48 AM EST
McCain Delivers Remarks at a Hershey, Pa. Rally
BYLINE: CQ Transcript Wire
LENGTH: 1578 words
HIGHLIGHT: SPEAKER: SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, R-ARIZ.
SPEAKER: SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, R-ARIZ.
[*] MCCAIN: It's great to be back in Pennsylvania. We need to win Pennsylvania on November 4th, and with your help we're going to win here, and bring real change to Washington, DC. We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: hoping for our luck to change at home and abroad. We have to act. We need a new direction, and we have to fight for it.
I've been fighting for this country since I was seventeen years old, and I have the scars to prove it. If I'm elected President, I will fight to shake up Washington and take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last. I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it.
I have a plan to hold the line on taxes and cut them to make America more competitive and create jobs here at home. We're going to double the child deduction for working families. We will cut the capital gains tax. And we will cut business taxes to help create jobs, and keep American businesses in America. Raising taxes makes a bad economy much worse. Keeping taxes low creates jobs, keeps money in your hands and strengthens our economy.
If I'm elected President, I won't spend nearly a trillion dollars more of your money. Senator Obama will. And he can't do that without raising your taxes or digging us further into debt. I'm going to make government live on a budget just like you do.
I will freeze government spending on all but the most important programs like defense, veterans care, Social Security and health care until we scrub every single government program and get rid of the ones that aren't working for the American people. And I will veto every single pork barrel bill Congresses passes.
I'm not going to spend $750 billion dollars of your money just bailing out the Wall Street bankers and brokers who got us into this mess. I'm going to make sure we take care of the working people who were devastated by the excesses of Wall Street and Washington.
I have a plan to fix our housing market, so that your home value doesn't go down when your neighbor defaults, and so that people in danger of defaulting have a path to pay off their loan.
If I'm elected President, we're going to stop spending $700 billion to buy oil from countries that don't like us very much. Senator Obama will argue to delay drilling for more oil and gas and against building new nuclear power plants in America. If I am president, we will start new drilling now. We will invest in all energy alternatives -- nuclear, wind, solar, and tide. We will encourage the manufacture of hybrid, flex fuel and electric automobiles. We will invest in clean coal technology. We will lower the cost of energy within months, and we will create millions of new jobs.
We've learned more about Senator Obama's real goals for our country over the last two weeks than we learned over the past two years, and that only because Joe the plumber asked him a question in Ohio. That's when Senator Obama revealed he wants to quote "spread the wealth around."
Now, Joe didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to his house, and he didn't ask to be famous. He certainly didn't ask for the political attacks on him from the Obama campaign. Joe's dream is to own a small business that will create jobs, and the attacks on him are an attack on small businesses all over the country. Small businesses employ 84 percent of Americans, and we need to support small businesses, not tax them.
After months of campaign trail eloquence, we've finally learned what Senator Obama's economic goal is: to spread the wealth. In a radio interview revealed this week, he said the same thing -- that one of the quote, "tragedies" of the civil rights movement is that it didn't bring about "redistributive change."
You see, Senator Obama believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs. He said that even though lower taxes on investment help our economy, he favors higher taxes on investment for quote "fairness." There's nothing "fair" about driving our economy into the ground. We all suffer when that happens, and that is the problem with Senator Obama's approach to our economy. He is more interested in controlling wealth than in creating it ... in redistributing money instead of spreading opportunity. I am going to create wealth for all Americans, by creating opportunity for all Americans.
Senator Obama is running to be Redistributionist in Chief. I'm running to be Commander in Chief. Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama is running to punish the successful. I'm running to make everyone successful.
Senator Obama has made a lot of promises. First he said people making less than 250,000 dollars would benefit from his plan, then this weekend he announced in an ad that if you're a family making less than 200,000 dollars you'll benefit -- but yesterday, right here in Pennsylvania, Senator Biden said tax relief should only go to "middle class people -- people making under 150,000 dollars a year." It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won't be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just 42,000 dollars a year should get a tax increase. We can't let that happen.
My opponent's massive new tax increase is exactly the wrong approach in an economic slowdown. The answer to a slowing economy is not higher taxes, but that is exactly what is going to happen when the Democrats have total control of Washington. We can't let that happen. We need pro-growth and pro-jobs economic policies, not pro-government spending programs paid for with higher taxes.
This is the fundamental difference between Senator Obama and me. We both disagree with President Bush on economic policy. The difference is that he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high.
If we are going to change Washington, we need a President who has actually fought for change and made it happen. The next President won't have time to get used to the office. We face many challenges here at home, and many enemies abroad in this dangerous world. Senator Biden warned that Senator Obama would be tested with an international crisis. I have been tested. Senator Obama hasn't. Senator Biden referred to how Jack Kennedy was tested in the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have a little personal experience in that. I was on board the U.S.S. Enterprise, and I sat in a jet cockpit on the flight deck waiting to take off. We had a target. I know how close we came to a nuclear war and I will not be a president that needs to be tested.
We know Senator Obama won't have the right response to that test, because we've seen the wrong response from him over and over during this campaign. He opposed the surge strategy that is bringing us victory in Iraq and will bring us victory in Afghanistan. He said he would sit down unconditionally with the world's worst dictators. When Russia invaded Georgia, Sen. Obama said the invaded country should show restraint. He's been wrong on all of these. When I am president, we are going to win in Iraq and win in Afghanistan, and our troops will come home in victory and honor.
Let me give you the state of the race today. There's one week to go. We're a few points down. The pundits have written us off, just like they've done before. My opponent is working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid of their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq. He's measuring the drapes, and he's planned his first address to the nation for before the election. I guess I'm old fashioned about these things I prefer to let the voters weigh in before presuming the outcome.
What America needs now is someone who will finish the race before the starting the victory lap ... someone who will fight to the end, and not for himself but for his country.
I have fought for you most of my life, and in places where defeat meant more than returning to the Senate. There are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to back down when the stakes are high.
I know you're worried. America is a great country, but we are at a moment of national crisis that will determine our future.
Will we continue to lead the world's economies or will we be overtaken? Will the world become safer or more dangerous? Will our military remain the strongest in the world? Will our children and grandchildren's future be brighter than ours?
My answer to you is yes. Yes, we will lead. Yes, we will prosper. Yes, we will be safer. Yes, we will pass on to our children a stronger, better country. But we must be prepared to act swiftly, boldly, with courage and wisdom.
I'm an American. And I choose to fight. Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight. Fight for a new direction for our country. Fight for what's right for America.
Fight to clean up the mess of corruption, infighting and selfishness in Washington. Fight to get our economy out of the ditch and back in the lead.
Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.
Fight for our children's future.
Fight for justice and opportunity for all.
Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.
Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history. Now, let's go win this election and get this country moving again.
END
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Washingtonpost.com
October 28, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk, Washington Post Campaign Finance Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2695 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post campaign finance reporter Matthew Mosk was online live Tuesday, Oct. 28 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Matthew Mosk: Good morning,
A busy day on the campaign trail today with, gulp, one week left. Also, plenty of news in Washington, starting with the Ted Stevens conviction. As many of you will have just read, Sen. John McCain called on Stevens to step aside this morning. What do you think?
Eager to hear your thoughts today.
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Evanston, Ill.: Let's say Sen. Stevens had fully reported all the gifts. Is it really normal for an oil company to facilitate the adding of a story to a politian's home? Could such a deal really be legal on either side of things?
washingtonpost.com: Stevens Found Guilty on 7 Counts (Post, Oct. 28)
Matthew Mosk: This is a great question, and I've just been bouncing it around with my colleagues. The short answer is, yes, kindof. Senators can accept gifts if they are out of friendship. But they can't accept gifts that are the result of their official position, or are in exchange for some official action.
The Feds in this case decided not to try and prove that these gifts were about more than friendship (although Stevens was in a position to help the oil services firm), instead deciding to simply prove that he received the gifts and failed to report them.
Here's a link to the Senate rules and a snippit of them:
http://rules.senate.gov/senaterules/rule35.php
(B) In determining whether a gift is provided on the basis of personal friendship, the Member, officer, or employee shall consider the circumstances under which the gift was offered, such as:
(i) The history of the relationship between the individual giving the gift and the recipient of the gift, including any previous exchange of gifts between such individuals.
(ii) Whether to the actual knowledge of the Member, officer, or employee the individual who gave the gift personally paid for the gift or sought a tax deduction or business reimbursement for the gift.
(iii) Whether to the actual knowledge of the Member, officer, or employee the individual who gave the gift also at the same time gave the same or similar gifts to other Members, officers, or employees.
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Medford, Ore.: What happens if Sen. Ted Stevens wins the election?
Matthew Mosk: Another good question, and not out of the realm of possibility. I spent a couple weeks in Alaska this fall, and was interested to find a tremendous amount of good will for Sen. Stevens and mistrust of the Washington, DC, jury.
A Stevens victory will, at minimum, buy him some time to figure out whether he can survive this conviction. Odds are he can't. So what happens then? Here, courtesy of election law expert Rick Hasen, is the relevant portion of the Alaksa Code:
Sec. 15.40.010. Conditions and time of filling vacancy by appointment and special election.
When a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator, the governor, at least five days after the date of the vacancy but within 30 days after the date of the vacancy, shall
(1) appoint a qualified person who, if the predecessor in office was nominated by a political party, has been, for the six months before the date of the vacancy, and is, on the date of appointment, a member of the same political party as that which nominated the predecessor in office to fill the vacancy temporarily until the vacancy is filled permanently by election; and
(2) by proclamation and subject to this chapter, call a special primary election and a special election to fill the vacancy for the remainder of the term of the predecessor in office if the predecessor's term would expire more than 30 calendar months after the date of the vacancy.
_______________________
About the Ted Stevens Deal: So I"m reading that John Mccain has now come out and said Stevens should resign, and all it took was a felony conviction! If the Republican Party were serious, wouldn't they have tried doing this before the primary so that a Democrat would have a harder time getting into office?
Matthew Mosk: I think what happened is that Stevens tried to speed up the trial on the chance that he would be acquitted, and that courtroom victory would propel him to electoral victory. My guess is that Republicans thought that was their better option, rather than by calling for him to resign and trying to find a new candidate to run against the Anchorage mayor.
_______________________
Silver Spring, Md.: Sarah Palin seemed to throw fellow Alaska Republican Ted Stevens under the bus yesterday, with her commenting on the "corrupting influence of the big oil service company that was allowed to control too much of our state." How did she describe this influence -- I assume mentioning Stevens by name -- when she campaigned for governor? Interestingly, the Democrats do not seem to have made that much mention of Palin's own condemnation on ethics charges (which she trumpeted as a victory, because the panel criticized her on only some of the charges).
Matthew Mosk: Hello Silver Spring,
You are right to point out that it is very hard to figure out what Gov. Palin's relationship with Sen. Stevens is like. When she ran for governor, she cut an ad with Stevens towards the end of the campaign. And while she ran as a reformer who wanted to rid her own party of corruption, she was less vocal about Stevens. That may be a matter of political calculation -- Stevens has remained very popular in Alaska as the case against him unfolded.
_______________________
New York: Matthew, an early question because I'm traveling: When people say that this election marks the end of campaign finance reform, what exactly do they mean? Thanks.
washingtonpost.com: Obama's Huge Haul Should End This Fight (Post, Oct. 26)
Matthew Mosk: Seems a good moment for some campaign finance questions. Here's the big picture question.
Some folks who have argued against most campaign finance restrictions believe that Obama's fundraising proves that a politician can raise money in an unfettered way without risking the corrupting influences that people have long associated with political donors. That's because instead of focusing primarily on seeking large contributions from the wealthy and special interests, Sen. Obama raised hundreds of millions from small 'kitchen table' donors.
_______________________
Providence, R.I.: Matthew, if John McCain had forgone public campaign financing, do you think he could have raised enough money to be competitive with Barack Obama's war chest? Thanks for the chat.
Matthew Mosk: This is a great question, Providence, and one reason to consider the possibility that public financing is not as obsolete as people think.
I think a case could be made that without the $84 million infusion of cash, Sen. McCain would have been at a WORSE financial disadvantage going into October. I suspect the general election fundraising we saw from the RNC (with McCain and Palin leading the effort) represented the best McCain had to offer.
_______________________
Glenmont, Md.: I'm sorry, but when friends give gifts, they buy each other books and sweaters, and maybe even a flat-screen TV if you've got money to throw around. A barca-lounger, okay. Even a weekend getaway at some resort -- that I could see. But remodeling the house? Get outta here. There's an issue of scale that defies any notion that a gift is given out of friendship.
Matthew Mosk: That makes sense to me, Glenmont. But apparently the Feds thought they'd have a challenge trying to make that case in court.
_______________________
Washington: Please answer me this -- now that Stevens is a convicted felon, does he have the right to vote?
Matthew Mosk: This question just popped up on Politico, this morning, too. Here's the section of law they referenced:
"According to the state of Alaska, A person convicted of a crime that constitutes a felony involving moral turpitude under state or federal law may not vote in a state, federal, or municipal election from the date of the conviction through the date of the unconditional discharge of the person."
I don't know whether this applies to Sen. Stevens, but will endeavor to find out before our hour is up.
_______________________
Washington: Hi Matthew. Assuming Sen. Obama is elected president, care to venture any predictions about whether he'll support changes tightening restrictions on campaign donors? And if John McCain remains in the Senate, do you foresee any changes in his stance?
Matthew Mosk: I think the big question facing both of them will be about the presidential public financing system. There is legislation pending to update the rules to prevent a candidate from being in the situation that Sen. McCain has found himself -- at a huge financial disadvantage. Ironically, Sen. Obama has signed on as a supporter of this bill, while Sen. McCain has not. Whether their positions could change will be an interesting question to watch.
_______________________
Campaign Fundraising:"That's because instead of focusing primarily on seeking large contributions from the wealthy and special interests, Sen. Obama raised hundreds of millions from small 'kitchen table' donors." A minor point of clarification: While he did raise money from "kitchen table" donors, the bulk of the money he raised -- 75 percent -- was from large contributions ... or so said The Washington Post.
Matthew Mosk: Yes indeed. That is true. But even with just a quarter of his overall take coming from donors who gave under $200, the amount of money involved was considerable.
_______________________
Helena, Mont.: Your article on tricksters donating under false names to the Obama campaign was pretty short on skepticism. Have you ever tried to use your credit card online to make purchases or donations? You can't do it unless the name and address you give is the same as what the card company has on file. Try moving sometime and give your new address before the credit card company has changed your address on their records -- can't do it. So my questions are: Did these tricksters have cards in the names of the donors they told you they had used on Obama's site? Did you see the cards? Did you even raise this question with them? Or did you just take their word at face value?
washingtonpost.com: Campaign Finance Gets New Scrutiny (Post, Oct. 26)
Matthew Mosk: Hi Helena,
You raise good questions. The Obama campaign has acknowledged that people have given money under false names -- these donations even showed up on their campaign reports. Their argument has been that they have gone back and swept their donor lists for evidence of problem donors, and during these sweeps, have found them and returned the money.
_______________________
Vancouver, Wash.: Hi Mr. Mosk. Does the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's decision to stop running ads in the Alaska senate race imply that Sen. Schumer thinks that Stevens is (excuse the expression) dead meat now that he has been convicted of seven felony counts? And have you heard of any talk regarding a possible presidental pardon? Thanks.
Matthew Mosk: Hi Vancouver,
Our White House reporters tell me they have not heard discussion of a presidential pardon for Stevens.
_______________________
Matthew Mosk: I've just spoken with Marc Mauer, a lawyer with the Sentencing Project, about whether or not Sen. Stevens has lost his right to vote in the upcoming election.
Mauer said there is a question of whether he has to be formally sentenced. "It's almost always defined as the conviction. But that may just be shorthand for how it's implimented. Every state has a convoluted way of describing it. I think most people would say that he probably could not vote. The best example of this I can think of is when Eugene V. Debs ran for president from his prison cell. He got a million votes, but he couldn't vote for himself."
_______________________
Fort Myers, Fla.: I've heard from smoe people that late-deciders are prone to vote for Obama because late-deciders tend to lean Democratic and McCain is of the incumbent party, but I've also heard some commentators say that late deciders will lean toward McCain because, well, he's white and more trandtionally presidential looking. Is there an established conventional wisdom on this, or is it a true point of disagreement?
Matthew Mosk: I'm not sure there's any conventional wisdom on this, other than that the candidate with an effective early-voter turnout program will benefit. Right now, our polling indicates that it is the Obama campaign that is benefitting from early voting.
_______________________
Boston: On the ledge at "The Corner" several bloggers incited several readers to make donations to the Obama campaign under assumed identities. I know both camps regularly send back millions in inappropriate donations, and the FEC is supposed to review donornames. I just wonder if it is a crime to ask others to make fraudulent contributions to a campaign...
Matthew Mosk: I don't know if it is a crime to "incite" people to make false donations. But making a donation "in the name of another" is a crime. I can understand the urge to try and test these campaigns to see what their screens will catch. But breaking the law seems ill advised.
_______________________
Beverly Hills, Calif.: What is the status of Hillary Clinton's deficit? Has she been able to raise substantial funds for Obama?
Matthew Mosk: Thanks for this question -- I hadn't checked this in some time. Sen. Clinton's latest filing indicates she is still saddled with about $8 million in debt. A good portion of it, $5,279,535, to be exact, is owed to the firm of strategist Mark Penn. This makes some sense, since a number of the Obama donors enlisted to try and help Clinton wipe away her debt explicitly did not want their money to be used to pay Penn. All that said, Sen. Clinton's effort on behalf of Sen. Obama (she's campaigning for him in Florida this week) should guarantee that if he wins, he'll help Clinton raise money at the start of next year.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.: Is The Post going to have its list of celebrity pundits and their predictions of the races, like they did during the 2004 campaign?
Matthew Mosk: I am told by OUTLOOK editor John Pomfret that, yes, you can expect to see this feature Sunday.
_______________________
Baltimore: At what point does the Republican National Committee cut its losses and focus on the Senate races? I feel like there are several senate races that could use an infusion of money, while I don't know if continuing to feed money into the presidential race would make too much of a difference.
Matthew Mosk: This is a subject that has been discussed with some intensity inside the RNC, according to sources I've spoken with. As far as I know, that's not the direction they opted to go.
_______________________
Princeton, N.J.: It's snowing here in the plains of New Jersey. If the weather is bad on Nov. 4, will that help Obama in some places like North Carolina, because of early voting?
Matthew Mosk: Hi Princeton -- congratulations on getting your first snowfall. I'm not sure we'll have to answer this question. Forecast for the Northeast next Tuesday: Partly Cloudy, 60 degrees.
Thanks for all the great questions, and stay tuned for an exciting final week!
_______________________
washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Southern States and the General Election (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
October 27, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
The Day
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 17
LENGTH: 198 words
Sunday was the 41st anniversary of the day Senator John McCain was shot down over Vietnam, an event that might put into perspective these last nine days before the election in which he is trailing in the polls. He has been through worse.
On ''Meet the Press'' on NBC, he undermined his attempt to separate from President Bush by saying, ''Do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course.'' Senator Barack Obama immediately worked that into his speech, calling it ''a little straight talk,'' at last.
If there is friction between Mr. McCain's camp and that of his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, he gave no hint of it on ''Meet the Press,'' where he defended her integrity in the wardrobe flap (''She lives a frugal life''). On the trail, he said that a vote for Mr. Obama would give ''total control'' of Washington to Democrats, including Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts liberal.
Takeaway: The attacks may fire up his base, but will they win over independents? Mr. Obama, meanwhile, barely suppresses a new glow (overconfidence?). His new television commercial calls Mr. McCain ''out of ideas, out of touch and out of time.''
KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
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The New York Times
October 27, 2008 Monday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
Democrats in Steel Country See Skin Color, and Beyond It
BYLINE: By MICHAEL POWELL
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1419 words
DATELINE: ALIQUIPPA, Pa.
Voting for the black man does not come easy to Nick Piroli. He is the first to admit that.
To the sound of bowling balls smacking pins, as the bartender in the Fallout Shelter queues up more Buds, this retired steelworker wrestles with this election and his choice. A couple of friends, he says, will not vote for Senator Barack Obama.
''I'm no racist, but I'm not crazy about him either,'' said Mr. Piroli, 77. ''I don't know, maybe 'cause he's black.''
He winces at himself. ''We was raised and worked with the black, the Serb,'' he said. ''It was a regular league of nations. And the economy now, it's terrible.''
''I've got to vote for him,'' he said finally.
Him? ''The Democrat, Obama,'' Mr. Piroli replied. ''I can't be stupid.''
Mr. Obama's Republican rival in the presidential campaign, Senator John McCain, has placed a sizable electoral bet that he can sweep predominantly white, working-class Beaver County and a dozen more Pennsylvania counties like it. Last week, Mr. McCain spoke before thousands in Moon Township, and two days later his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, drew more than 2,000 fans to a rally in Beaver.
But to walk the back streets of the Beaver River mill cities -- the biggest mills were long ago shuttered -- and to visit rural hamlets like Economy and Hookstown is to hear more than a few Democrats saying they intend, however reluctantly, to support their party's standard-bearer, particularly as the world economy cracks and heaves. Many Democrats, and a few independents, wonder if Mr. McCain is too old and Ms. Palin too unsophisticated to take his place.
Such sentiments could bode ill for Mr. McCain, who hopes for a surprise victory in Pennsylvania to rescue his presidential bid. And they dovetail with poll findings that show a gravitation of white voters, female and male, toward Mr. Obama's camp. To try to stanch that flow and tap into doubts about Mr. Obama, Mr. McCain will return to the state on Monday for the second time in a week and then appear on Tuesday with Ms. Palin as they try to sway voters like Mr. Piroli.
Mr. McCain may have an opening: 35 interviews over three days offer up a conversation about race and presidential choices, and that is where the greatest uncertainty lies for Mr. Obama. Sometimes race talk runs like a subterranean river. Sometimes it floats right on the surface.
In Ambridge, a Beaver River factory town named after the company that gave it fame -- American Bridge -- Olga Permon, a 71-year-old steelworker's widow and a lifelong Democrat, climbs the stoop of her yellow-brick home. She considers the field: Mr. McCain? A grouchy old man. Ms. Palin? Please. No way. What about Mr. Obama?
Her pause goes on and on. ''He scares me,'' Mrs. Permon said. ''The coloreds are excited, but my friends and I plan to write in Hillary's name.''
These are not gentle lands for Mr. Obama. A visit here in August found even deeper suspicions of him in Beaver County, where Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton beat him by 40 percentage points in the Democratic primary. Democrats outnumber Republicans, but voters here tilt either way in presidential elections.
Still, a worsening economy has worked to the Democrats' advantage. Mr. Obama and his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., drew 8,000 to a rally in Beaver a month ago; John J. Sweeney, the A.F.L.-C.I.O. president, stumped on Saturday in Beaver; and many dozens of union members go door to door each weekend, rounding up votes. They remind their fellow workers that Mr. McCain had supported privatization of Social Security, a move they say could have left worker retirement accounts trapped in a plummeting stock market.
''This is McCain's Hail Mary; they looked at the huge margin here for Hillary Clinton in the primary and figured, 'Hmm, we have a shot,' '' said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, in Lancaster. ''But it's going to be very difficult here for him to get the margins needed to offset the cities and the eastern suburbs.''
In Ambridge, Vince Pisano, 47, a union plumber, reflects that challenge. As he sits on his porch, he considers collapses -- of the economy and his retirement account. He is firm for Mr. Obama, but he is in a small club.
''Close friends, real close, tell me they can't get past his race,'' said Mr. Pisano, flashing his give-me-a-break look. ''If Obama were white, this would be a landslide around here.''
Beaver was known as the cake-eater's town. Steel management lived here, and its elegant Edwardian and Victorian homes, with oak and mahogany beams, lend a grace to the streets.
Ms. Palin has taken a lead role in wooing culturally conservative counties like Beaver. She held a rally here and obtained the endorsement of the Beaver High School football coach, who paraded his players and cheerleaders onto the field for her, and the crowds cheered when she spoke of her opposition to abortion. This is a theologically conservative province -- Catholic churches vie with conservative Protestant and evangelical churches.
''She's what we need, a live one,'' said Steve Matoic, a 6-foot-6 truck driver in a camouflage jacket and with a flag bandana on his head.
''The head of our ticket is good, but sometimes his energy ----'' he said, his voice trailing off.
The Palin fires, however, show signs of banking. Over at Sheffield Lanes, mention of her name summons no glint from older bowlers, or from Jeremy and Joe Long, in their 20s, tipping Buds. They liked Mrs. Clinton but pass on Ms. Palin.
''She's always talking about the 'Average Joe,' '' Jeremy Long said. ''Average me! I don't want myself in the Oval Office. I want someone smarter.''
The next day, just up the street on Linden Avenue, Grace Ruscitti, a retired schoolteacher, stood on her porch on a block of modest steel-worker bungalows. She was still upset about Mr. McCain's choice of Ms. Palin. ''That was an insult to our intelligence,'' Ms. Ruscitti said. ''This barracuda nonsense. Tell me, where'd they find her?''
None of which is to suggest that Mr. McCain does not have deep reservoirs of support. The Rev. Chris Noyes, a Presbyterian minister in Beaver Falls, a city with broad avenues and storefronts that are more vacant than not, estimates that two-thirds of his congregation supports the Republican ticket.
Talk to Derek Wood, 28, as his Dalmatian tugs at a leash, and he says he is voting for Mr. McCain. He likes the tax cuts.
People here have voted for Democrats since the 1930s, Mr. Wood said, and what is left? Ghosts hang from oaks and pumpkins sit on porches, but there are no children to demand trick or treat. If you are 28, you rent a U-Haul truck and leave.
''It's a great place to live from 45 and up,'' Mr. Wood said.
The Republicans have also poured money into advertising. Until early October, the McCain campaign had outspent the Obama campaign in Pennsylvania. And commercials and e-mail messages from unaffiliated groups have sown doubt: about Mr. Obama's ties to William Ayers, the former member of the 1960s-era Weather Underground radical group; about his connection to Acorn, an organizing group being accused of voter-registration fraud; about his religion. The rumors and charges form a subliminal closed loop.
The white-haired Judy Miller, ''Miss Judy'' to customers, slaps together a turkey hoagie in Hookstown, near the West Virginia border. Mention of Mr. Obama brings a frown. ''Who is he? Who's behind him?'' she said. ''This radical at the university thing, the Muslim stuff.''
A union distributes a leaflet here titled ''The Truth About Barack Obama,'' which says: ''Is he a Christian? Yes. Was he sworn in on a Bible? Yes. Was he born in America? Yes.''
Still, doubts about Mr. Obama persist. Mrs. Permon, the steelworker's widow, plans to write in Mrs. Clinton's name. Rita Ratjer, another steel widow, plans to sit it out altogether.
But in between sits the housebound Peggy Doffin. Her knees are gone and she takes groceries, mail deliveries and interviews through her first-floor window. At 79, with her fat tabby cat in her arms, she has lived through the Great Depression and fears another coming. Once she was a confirmed ''Hillary woman'' and not a fan of Mr. Obama. Then she listened to his convention speech and, she said, ''chills ran down my back.''
''Race just don't matter to me any more,'' she said. ''But a lot of Democrats out there'' -- she shrugged -- ''we'll find out on Election Day, won't we?''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 27, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: October 28, 2008
CORRECTION: An article on Monday about the attitudes of voters in mill cities in Western Pennsylvania toward voting for a black man for president referred incorrectly to the location of Ambridge, Pa. It lies on the Ohio River, not the Beaver River.
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Old factory towns like Ambridge, Pa., are traditionally Democratic, but there is skepticism about Senator Barack Obama.
Vince Pisano, 47, an Obama supporter in Ambridge, with his wife, Sandy, and children Dominic, 11, and Samantha, 8.
Peggy Doffin, 79, said she became an Obama supporter during his convention speech when ''chills ran down my back.'' (PHOTOGRAPHS BY JEFF SWENSEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(A18) MAP: Map details Aliquippa, Pennsylvania.(A1)
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The New York Times
October 27, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Campaign Gravy Train At an End
BYLINE: By DAVID CARR.
E-mail: carr@nytimes.com
SECTION: Section B; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; THE MEDIA EQUATION; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1069 words
Let's be honest. As much as we are looking forward to Nov. 4, when a historic and riveting presidential campaign will finally reach a verdict, it's going to take more than a few aspirin and a nap to get rid of the hangover we will feel the next day.
No more nights of watching Anderson Cooper make the eager hand-off to the wise David Gergen. Keith Olbermann and Bill O'Reilly will have to make do with political autopsy, while Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert will have to find humor speculating about those first 100 days. And if the current polls hold (and don't hold your breath), Tina Fey might have to make do without Gov. Sarah Palin, along with the rest of us.
But however bereft you and I, along with our broadcast political familiars, might be feeling once the balloons drop, it will be nothing compared to those who live and die on local television advertising. For the last several months, local stations, and to some degree networks, have been frolicking in all the money spilled by the Democratic campaign and the efforts of the Republicans to play catch-up.
Given all of the bailing that the government has been doing in the private sector, perhaps it is only fitting that politics has been a lifesaver for a media industry. It is one of the certainties of democracy that America will never run out of hot air.
Last week, the Obama campaign surpassed the record in advertising spending set by the Bush campaign in 2004, and the end of the campaign has yet to be counted. These final days are when campaigns spend the most to influence the least -- those last few undecided voters.
By some estimates, Senator Obama will have spent $250 million on local, cable and network television in just five months, a rate of advertising that outstrips Burger King, Apple and Gap on an annualized basis. And it dwarfs the $188 million that President Bush spent in 2004.
''Right now, he is one of the leading brands out there,'' said Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group of TNS Media Intelligence, which monitors political advertising. ''We have never had a candidate for president who did not take public financing, so he is sort of rewriting the rule book. We are on new ground here.''
But even political spending, along with a popular Olympics, may not salvage the year. Marci L. Ryvicker, vice president for equity research at Wachovia Capital Markets, is estimating that total ad sales will be down 1 percent: the decline in top categories like automotive, retail and financial services wiped out a record year in political ads.
The every-other-year cycle of Congressional races has long been a lifeline. ''This is the first year in history that advertising could decline in an even year,'' Ms. Ryvicker said. ''The finance guys, the auto guys, the retail sector are used to getting pushed off the air by the political ads and then returning, but this year, they won't be coming back.''
Brand Obama began as a social network phenomenon online, with a database of not only willing volunteers but also folks who opened up their checkbooks. And this being a hybrid media age, money gathered on the Web is now being spilled on the traditional box in the den. The next time around, the Web may be the vehicle where money is both harvested and spent, but in 2008, it is those spot ads on the local television news that still constitute the sweet spot of political persuasion.
Campaign advertising comes and goes in two-year cycles, with presidential years being a particular bonanza, and then it reliably goes away. But the bubble was bigger this year: In the last presidential election cycle, all political advertising spending was about $1.7 billion. This year it will be $2.5 billion, according to current estimates. The bullish year in broadcast political bull has served as something of a Band-Aid on a hemorrhaging ad market. Pulling that bandage off on Nov. 5 is going to hurt.
''We always plan for feast and famine, not famine and more famine,'' said Gary Belis, a spokesman for Television Bureau of Advertising, a trade association for local television broadcasters. Several crucial categories for local television advertising are down hugely: according to research done by the bureau, as of August, auto advertising was off 13.9 percent, movie ads were down 20.9 percent and television buys for department stores were off 18.5 percent.
Even the networks, not historically huge players in a landscape of focused buys in battleground states, have had some of the money slosh their way. By the time the last hanging chad is accounted for, the Obama campaign will have spent $20 million on network advertising and Senator McCain will have spent more than $10 million.
But while big media companies like Viacom and the News Corporation own dozens of local television stations, it is a relatively minor part of their business. It is smaller, less diversified players -- Hearst-Argyle, Gray Television, Sinclair Broadcast Group, Young Broadcasting and Belo -- that could be hurt the most.
''There is not going to a be a lot of demand for inventory in the fourth quarter,'' said Brad Adgate of Horizon Media. ''There has been so much consolidation in retail and now financial services that there are not enough brands to go around.''
But for now, there is a fire hose of spending under way. Seventy percent of election spending happens in the final 60 days, and Mr. Obama has so much money, he is looking for places to stuff it, including a 30-minute buy on most networks and some cable outlets this Wednesday. (Who would have ever thought that the Democrats would use overwhelming financial force to wrest the megaphone from the Republicans? Maybe they'll use it to make some nice speeches about campaign finance reform.)
In addition to a year of record fund-raising in the presidential campaign and countless hard-fought battles for seats in the Senate and the House, the so-called 527 groups are being allowed to spend in the final days of the campaign after a change in the law, which only adds to all of the late money coursing through television right now.
Given the stakes and the current climate, broadcasters could hardly be blamed for hearing the sound of the cash register when it's time for voters to pull a lever.
''On the bright side, 2010 is going to be starting earlier than ever,'' said Mr. Tracey of TNS. ''They won't have long to wait.''
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October 27, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Voter 'anger' has Dems set for big gains in Congress;
GOP incumbents at risk as electoral ground shifts
BYLINE: John Fritze
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1A
LENGTH: 2074 words
WASHINGTON -- Out of money and down by double digits in the polls a month ago, Georgia Democrat Jim Martin's campaign for U.S. Senate was all but dead. Now, those polls show, it's dead even.
The race for the Georgia Senate seat should have been as comforting as peach cobbler for Republicans, but this month the non-partisan Cook Political Report changed its outlook for Sen. Saxby Chambliss' re-election from a safe bet to a tossup.
"The mood across the country is not particularly good right now," says Chambliss, a first-term senator who adds that he suspected the early lead wouldn't stick. "We knew it was going to be very close."
An unpopular president, fundraising doldrums and the burden of defending 27 more open seats than the Democrats are factors forcing GOP leaders to play defense in congressional races across the USA, as the Democrats angle for even wider majorities. Open seats do not have an incumbent.
Democrats have a 38-seat advantage in Congress now and, despite their own low approval ratings, the party could add as many as 28 seats in the House and seven to nine in the Senate, according to Cook.
As late as September, many Republicans thought the energy created by vice presidential pick Sarah Palin and the party's populist response of drilling to reduce gas prices could stem the losses.
But that was before the economic meltdown sent financial markets -- and GOP poll numbers -- tumbling as Americans linked the downturn to the Bush White House.
Even once-safe Republican seats -- such as in North Carolina where Sen. Elizabeth Dole faces Democrat Kay Hagan -- have become the focus of tight races.
In Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman is in a contentious contest with Democrat Al Franken, the writer and comedian. Others, such as Chambliss and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., still have leads, but narrow ones.
Democrats seized control of Congress in 2006, picking up 36 seats. Usually when a party wins big one year it has to defend the gains in the next election, notes Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill.
This year, however, polls indicate Democrats are en route to bucking that trend.
"Republicans are still hung over from 2006, and they're about to get kicked in the gut again," says David Wasserman, who tracks House races for Cook.
"Voters are intent on taking out their anger on the party they perceive to have mishandled the economy."
Battling for open seats
Northern Virginia sent Republican Rep. Tom Davis to Congress for 14 years. This year, Davis is retiring, and his voters are flirting with a Democrat.
"The district is turning bluer by the hour," says Democratic candidate Gerry Connolly, who faces Republican Keith Fimian for Davis' seat. "The Republican label is a tough label this year."
The race, which Cook predicts is likely to go Connolly's way, illustrates a major problem Republicans face: a high number of hard-to-defend seats left open by retirements.
Republicans are leaving open five Senate seats; Democrats, one. In the House, 29 Republican seats are open, and Cook predicts 16 of those are in jeopardy of going Democratic.
Six Democratic seats are vacant in the House, but the GOP appears to have a shot at winning just one, in northern Alabama.
Defending an open seat is harder, in part because challengers lack the visibility and fundraising muscle that come with elected office. In 2006, 94% of House incumbents and 79% of senators won re-election, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics.
Open seats also cost more to win.
First-time winners in open House races two years ago spent an average $700,000 more than successful incumbents, the center reports. This year, polls show Democrats ahead for open Republican Senate seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado.
"People really do want change," says Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, who the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report forecasts to win the Colorado Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard.
Hoping to defy conventional wisdom, Republicans are pressing on. In Northern Virginia, Fimian says he believes his race against Connolly will be closer than predicted.
"The more people I get in front of, the better my chances," he says.
Republican Bob Schaffer, who is trailing Udall in Colorado's Senate race, says his polling shows 10% of voters are undecided. He expects many of those voters to break his way Election Day.
"People are making their minds up that the economy and pocketbook issues are the driving force behind their decision-making," says Schaffer, a former energy executive who describes himself as the low-tax candidate.
"If this race is about the economy, I'm going to win."
Like many Republican candidates, Schaffer acknowledges Democrats will pick up seats. But, he says, "we don't intend for it to be in Colorado."
For Democrats, the challenge is different.
They need to defend incumbents who won in Republican-leaning districts two years ago. Four freshmen House Democrats are in races Cook calls tossups.
Democrats boost spending
Democrat Larry Kissell, a North Carolina social studies teacher who has never held public office, came within 329 votes of Republican Rep. Robin Hayes in 2006.
This year, Kissell's party isn't taking any chances.
The Democratic Party's national fundraising arm is helping Kissell overcome his financial disadvantage by pumping $1.7 million into his campaign -- one of the biggest infusions of party support in the nation.
"The money itself controls the volume knob on a lot of things," Kissell spokesman Thomas Thacker says.
Outside cash has paid for TV ads that link Hayes to President Bush.
"Robin Hayes must have his head in the clouds," the narrator of one ad says as a picture of Hayes floats in the sky. "He seems to think George Bush's economic policy is working."
The party that controls Congress typically has an advantage in fundraising. So far in this general election, Democratic candidates have spent 29% more than Republicans -- a reversal from 2006, when Republicans outspent Democrats, according to the center's analysis.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent $52 million on "independent expenditures" to help its candidates, according to the congressional newspaper Roll Call.
By contrast, the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent $12 million.
"The fact the DCCC is bankrolling this race is very telling that Larry Kissell needs Washington to run this race for him," Hayes said in a statement.
"The effect is that the voters are being bombarded with negative attacks that come from Washington, D.C."
Democrats poured $1.5 million into central Arizona's 3rd District, where Democrat Bob Lord is running against seven-term Republican Rep. John Shadegg.
And in Ohio's 15th District, the Democratic Party has spent $1.5 million to back Mary Jo Kilroy, who is seeking an open seat.
"Democrats are more energized, organized and well-funded than the Republicans," says Nathan Gonzales, political editor at Rothenberg.
"Republicans either don't have the money to respond in some districts or can't respond at the same levels."
'Blame the Republicans'
As bad as the political climate was for Republicans during the summer, it got worse in September when the financial crisis forced the Bush administration to ask Congress for a $700 billion bailout of Wall Street.
Incumbents in both parties said they received thousands of phone calls from constituents angry that the government would consider using taxpayer money to bail out private institutions. Many members in tight elections voted against the measure.
Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., supported the bill and came under fire from his Democratic opponent, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who called it "incredibly fiscally irresponsible."
The two are locked in a tight race that Congressional Quarterly says has no clear favorite.
"It goes right to the heart of Gordon Smith's view that you let the big boys do what they want, this willingness to put your hands over your eyes," says Merkley, who aired a TV ad criticizing Smith over the bailout just before Congress approved it.
Smith's campaign manager, Brooks Kochvar, argues that Merkley's message is not resonating.
"Sen. Gordon Smith faced a decision to do something, though not perfect, to help Main Street, or to do nothing at all," Kochvar says. "Our opponent's message is to do nothing at all."
Anger over the economy is likely to hurt Republican incumbents no matter how they voted on the bailout, says David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.
That resentment explains the Democrats' momentum, he says.
"The negative perceptions of Bush and the Republican administration have spilled over to Republicans more generally in Congress," he says.
"Here, more than anywhere, people tend to blame the Republicans because they blame Wall Street."
Turnout may change the game
Another factor that could drive House and Senate races has nothing to do with the congressional candidates: turnout in the historic presidential race.
Nearly 590,000 new voters have registered in Georgia in the past year, for instance, and both Senate candidates there say they are watching the effect Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's candidacy may have on black voters, who tend to choose Democrats.
Most polls have given Republican presidential nominee John McCain a slight lead in Georgia, which could help Chambliss.
So far, however, African Americans are casting a disproportionately high number of early voting ballots. Black turnout for Obama also could affect congressional races in North Carolina and Mississippi.
"Our challenge is for those first-time voters who are coming out to say 'I want to vote for Barack Obama for president' is to make sure they stay in the booth long enough and vote for the congressional candidates," says Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the DCCC.
Davis, a former chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee, says high voter registration does not necessarily translate into turnout on Election Day.
"But there is no question that there is going to be an enhanced African-American turnout in this," he says.
"They are unlikely to vote for Obama and come back in significant numbers for Republicans at the congressional level."
Martin, the Democratic Senate candidate in Georgia, says it is not just an increase in black voters that will shape the election.
"People are coming from all different sectors of our society to exercise their rights as citizens to vote," he says.
"They're demanding change, and they're participating in numbers that we've not seen in many, many years."
Where Dems could pick up House seats
House seats held by Republicans in jeopardy of being lost to Democrats, according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report:
Likely to go Democratic (4)
State District Incumbent
Arizona 1st Rick Renzi {+1}
New York 13th Vito Fossella {+1}
New York 25th Jim Walsh {+1}
Virginia 11th Tom Davis {+1}
Leaning Democratic (5)
State District Incumbent
Illinois 11th Jerry Weller {+1}
Minnesota 3rd Jim Ramstad {+1}
New Jersey 3rd Jim Saxton {+1}
New Mexico 1st Heather Wilson {+1}
Ohio 16th Ralph Regula {+1}
Tossups (24)
State District Incumbent
Alabama 2nd Terry Everett {+1}
Alaska At large Don Young
Colorado 4th Marilyn Musgrave
Connecticut 4th Christopher Shays
Florida 8th Ric Keller
Florida 21st Lincoln Diaz-Balart
Florida 24th Tom Feeney
Idaho 1st Bill Sali
Illinois 10th Mark Kirk
Louisiana 4th Jim McCrery {+1}
Maryland 1st Wayne Gilchrest {+1}
Michigan 7th Tim Walberg
Michigan 9th Joe Knollenberg
Minnesota 6th Michele Bachmann
Missouri 9th Kenny Hulshof {+1}
Nevada 3rd Jon Porter
New Jersey 7th Mike Ferguson {-1}
New Mexico 2nd Steve Pearce {-1}
New York 29th Randy Kuhl
North Carolina 8th Robin Hayes
Ohio 1st Steve Chabot
Ohio 15th Deborah Pryce {+1}
Pennsylvania 3rd Phil English
Washington 8th Dave Reichert
1 -- Seats in which the incumbent is not running for re-election
Where the GOP could gain in the House
House seats held by Democrats in jeopardy of being lost to Republicans, according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report:
Likely to go Republican (1)
State District Incumbent
Florida 16th Tim Mahoney
Tossup (6)
State District Incumbent
Alabama 5th Bud Cramer {+1}
Louisiana 6th Don Cazayoux
New Hampshire 1st Carol Shea-Porter
Pennsylvania 10th Christopher Carney
Pennsylvania 11th Paul Kanjorski
Texas 22nd Nick Lampson
1 -- Incumbent is not running for re-election
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USA TODAY
October 27, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Deep divide splits Washington state;
Voters happy to hop parties as they move down ballot
BYLINE: William M. Welch
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 6A
LENGTH: 760 words
RENTON, Wash. -- If this election is about change, as Barack Obama and John McCain say, Democrats here in Washington state are asking voters not to go too far.
An increasingly blue state on the national electoral map, Washington hasn't voted for a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Washington is more evenly split politically when it comes to local politics, and a close rematch in the governor's race is proving that once again.
First-term Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire, 61, who won by 133 votes out of 2.8 million cast, is facing the man she beat in 2004, Republican Dino Rossi, in a tough re-election fight.
"It's hard to be running with a national message of change and still turn around and say, 'We don't want any here,'" says Cathy Allen, a Democratic political consultant in Seattle.
Rossi, a former state senator, has been hitting Gregoire with calls for change in TV ads. Rossi, 49, points out that under Gregoire, the state has seen higher unemployment, an increase in the gasoline tax, rising business failures and a $3.2 billion deficit.
"If this is what Chris Gregoire did in four years, do you really want to see what she can do in eight?" one Rossi ad asks.
Gregoire has been countering with the difference between the two on social issues. A former state attorney general, she points out in ads that Rossi opposes abortion: "In these tough times, don't turn back the clock. Dino Rossi is not the change we need."
The two campaigns are spending more than $20 million, making it impossible to miss their TV ads and creating dismay among some voters.
"I really don't want to vote for either one," says Kristen Ballou, a mother from Kent who supports McCain. "The governor's race is ugly."
Washington's politics reflect a divide between Seattle, overwhelmingly Democratic and liberal, and the area east of the Cascade Mountains, where Republicans tend to do well and at least one poll shows Rossi besting Gregoire 2-1.
Both presidential and governor's races may be decided in this in-between battleground east of Seattle and Lake Washington.
It is an area whose residents include Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder. It includes the high-tech, high-growth city of Bellevue, and Renton, where Boeing produces its 737 jetliners.
Interviews with voters here showed sharp divisions over the presidential race but also a willingness among many voters to split their tickets.
"The last two years, I have been very disgusted with where we've ended up," says Jason Thiry, 31, a regional vice president of a carpeting company from Renton who voted for President Bush four years ago.
This time, he says he and his wife will support Obama. But the Democratic governor has not completed her sale to Thiry, who holds her accountable for the region's economic problems.
"It's pretty bad. It's on her watch, too," he says.
Rachael Clemmons, 33, a nurse from Renton, is eager to vote for Obama. She has a 6-year-old daughter with a heart condition and says keeping her health insurance is her biggest concern.
Gregoire cannot yet count on her vote. "I see all these ads on TV and I don't know what to believe," she says.
Sometimes the ads can have unintended effects.
Tharon Knittle, 35, a mother from Renton supporting McCain, said she decided to vote for Rossi for governor because she saw ads saying he opposes abortion -- ads run by Gregoire, his opponent. Knittle says she figures if Rossi opposes abortion, as she does, "the other policies will fall in line more with what I feel."
Yet Rossi hasn't completed the sale with some McCain voters.
Robert Johnston, 51, a writer and transplanted Southerner now in Renton, says he has followed the campaign closely and is "leaning toward McCain."
"He's been tried by fire, and I think our country needs the experience, integrity and courage McCain has to offer," Johnston says. Yet he is attracted to Gregoire by her character as well.
"I'm a conservative in a lot of areas, but I have a real high opinion of Gov. Gregoire and her honesty," Johnston says. "There is something about her -- I think her integrity is unquestioned."
Two October polls, by Survey USA and Rasmussen, show Gregoire ahead by 1 and 2 percentage points respectively, within the margins of error.
Still, the prospect of Obama voters turning the Democratic governor out of office is alarming to her partisans, local political observers say.
Luke Esser, state Republican Party chairman, says straight-ticket voting isn't expected in Washington, where voters don't register by party: "In this state, it's every candidate for him or herself," he says.
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October 27, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Voters blasted by variety of radio ads;
Presidential contest floods airwaves
BYLINE: Jill Lawrence
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 693 words
WASHINGTON -- Stuck in traffic in a battleground state? Chances are you'll be barraged with radio ads from presidential candidates and those who love -- or hate -- them.
Democrat Barack Obama has money to burn and is spending it everywhere. Republican John McCain has been watching his wallet, and radio spots are good value. Labor unions and the National Rifle Association are also in the mix.
"Radio was all but given up for dead," media analyst Evan Tracey says. "We're going back to the future."
Radio ads are cheap to make and run, and easy to target. Obama and McCain ads run the gamut from stem cell research and taxes to Iraq and trade, on stations aimed at blacks, Hispanics, conservatives, evangelicals, news and sports junkies, and hunters.
As Election Day nears, independent groups are making closing arguments and imploring people to vote. In AFL-CIO ads on urban and Spanish stations in 16 cities, celebrities such as rapper Ludacris advise listeners to bring ID to the polls and stay in line even after closing. The American Federation of Government Employees, in a national buy, urges people to disregard race and gender in deciding their vote.
The NRA is telling gun owners in key states that Obama will take away their rights. The pro-McCain Family Research Council and the pro-Obama Matthew 25 Network (after the Bible verse about being judged on how one treats "the least" among us) are fighting over Obama's abortion views on Christian radio.
The United Auto Workers union is spending $3 million in six states on TV and radio ads about jobs and health care. "Radio is a very good medium to reach people who work for a living, going back and forth to their jobs," UAW spokesman Roger Kerson says.
Northern Virginia, in the Washington, D.C., media market, is a top battleground. Tracey says it costs an average $1,700 to $2,500 to run a 30-second political ad on a network TV affiliate.
A 30-second ad on all-news radio in the same market costs the NRA $500 to $600 per airing, NRA spokesman Andrew Arulanandam says. The ads run often and "people hear your message more than once," he says.
Interest groups usually publicize their plans, but political radio ads are hard to track. TV ad watchers don't follow them and candidates rarely announce them.
A recent Internet search yielded eight McCain radio spots and 14 for Obama. Obama spokesman Bill Burton called that "pretty far under the mark" but did not provide further details. McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds also said he could not comment on radio strategy.
This approach keeps the other side off-guard and also helps obscure the tone of the ads. They are often negative and sometimes make misleading claims.
McCain, for example, has charged that Obama's tax plans are "a recipe for economic disaster," said he'll raise taxes on just about everyone, accused him of using tax money to "reward his friends" and attacked him (wrongly) for opposing clean coal technology.
Obama has accused McCain of opposing federally funded stem cell research (false) and abortion (true). He has gone after McCain's health care plan and his position on Iraq.
In Colorado, Obama attacked McCain's stand on a water compact. In Ohio, he tried to tie McCain's campaign manager to a threatened plant shutdown. In Milwaukee, he has highlighted McCain's 2004 comment that he'd "hate to live in Milwaukee."
When radio ads are announced, it's usually an endorsement. McCain recently spread word of a Florida ad in which Republican Gov. Charlie Crist calls him "my friend" and says he'll cut taxes.
Among the ads Obama has announced: Indiana musician John Mellencamp vouching for him in Indiana, Democratic Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (a former astronaut) doing the same in Florida, and bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley -- against guitar-picking and wailing vocals -- telling rural southwest Virginians that Obama is a "devoted husband" who will "cut taxes for everyday folks."
Tracey says many people now use iPods and "radio is suffering." But it's playing an important role in the 2008 campaign, he says, as are traditional network newscasts and anchors: "The old medias at least for this election have made a very strong comeback."
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The Washington Post
October 27, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
For GOP, Some Good News at Last -- on the Gubernatorial Front
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 981 words
The 2008 election could be the worst in a generation for Republicans, with the White House slipping away and heavy losses predicted in the Senate and the House.
Looking for a bright spot? Look no further than two governor's races, in Washington state and North Carolina.
In each, the Republican candidates have successfully snatched the "change" mantle from the Democratic candidates, and polls show both states are the truest of tossups.
In Washington, former state senator Dino Rossi (R) is back for a rematch against Gov. Christine Gregoire (D), to whom he lost by 129 votes after a series of contested recounts in 2004. The race has been tied since the Republican announced his second candidacy, and strategists on both sides acknowledge that it could go either way with a week remaining before the vote.
Working in Rossi's favor is Gregoire's long résumé in politics -- three terms as state attorney general before being elected governor, disadvantages in this year's hostile climate -- and some sense of buyer's remorse among the Washington state electorate. Working for Gregoire is the strong Democratic wind in the state and the power of incumbency.
In North Carolina, the departure of Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, term-limited out of office, seemed to open the door for his lieutenant governor, Bev Perdue, to step into the governor's mansion.
But Republicans smartly nominated Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a business-minded, pragmatic politician who has successfully painted Perdue as a defender of the status quo.
A recent Civitas Institute poll showed Perdue and McCrory knotted at 43 percent, with the Libertarian candidate receiving 2 percent.
Although Republicans could be on the ascent in Washington and North Carolina, not all the news on the gubernatorial front is good. In Missouri, Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) is swamping Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) in the open seat race to replace retiring Republican Gov. Matt Blunt.
Bachmann Digs Big Hole for Herself
The electoral saga of Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) continues.
Bachmann, a freshman Republican seen as close to a shoo-in for reelection just 10 days ago, now finds herself struggling for her political life -- all because of an inexplicable decision.
That decision? To appear on national television -- MSNBC's "Hardball" with Chris Matthews, to be specific -- and suggest that Sen. Barack Obama holds "anti-American" views.
Whoops. In the immediate aftermath of Bachmann's comments, former Blaine mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg, whose campaign seemed close to finished before the controversy, received a massive influx of donations, to the tune of more than $1.5 million. (That sum, raised in a single week, is more than what any other Democratic challenger has raised in a fundraising quarter in the entire two-year election cycle.)
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began banging on Bachmann with $1 million worth of ads. The National Republican Congressional Committee, rapidly running out of fingers to plug the leaks that have sprung up of late nationwide, canceled its ad buy, leaving Bachmann to fend for herself.
"Some candidates, like Congresswoman Bachmann, are sitting on more than $1 million cash on hand in districts that President Bush won in 2004 by double digits," wrote Karen Hanretty, communications director for the NRCC, in a memo to reporters explaining the committee's decision.
Backed into a corner, Bachmann did what comes naturally to imperiled politicians: apologize (sort of).
On Friday, Bachmann launched an ad in which she only obliquely references the "Hardball" hoopla. "I may not always get my words right, but I know my heart is right because my heart is for you," Bachmann says in the commercial.
That semi-sorry may be too little, too late, according to a new poll conducted for Minneapolis Public Radio that showed Bachmann at 45 percent and Tinklenberg at 43 percent. In the survey, roughly four in 10 voters in the suburban 6th District said Bachmann's comments made them less likely to support her Nov. 4, compared with 8 percent who said the remarks made them more likely to back the incumbent.
Home State Advantage Slipping?
Is Arizona, the home state of Sen. John McCain, in play at the presidential level on Nov. 4?
A new poll conducted by two pollsters for Project New West, a Democratic strategy group, showed McCain with a 48 percent to 44 percent edge, well within the survey's margin of error. In the last poll conducted for New West in the state, in mid-September, McCain held a 14-point edge.
The good news for McCain is that the most recent New West poll shows the race to be far closer than other surveys conducted in Arizona.
Pollster.com's average of polling conducted in the state puts McCain at 48.9 percent and Sen. Barack Obama at 39.1 percent.
And, neither campaign has advertised in the Grand Canyon State, a sign that Arizona and its 10 electoral votes are not part of Obama's efforts to expand the playing field next week. Arizona went for President Bush by 11 points in 2004; he had won by a narrower six-point margin in 2000.
McCain doesn't seem to be in danger of following in the footsteps of Vice President Al Gore. Gore, who had represented Tennessee in the House and Senate for better than two decades, lost the Volunteer State to Bush by a four-point margin, 51 percent to 47 percent. Had Gore carried his home state -- and its 11 electoral votes -- he would have been elected president.
Eight days: After months of waiting, Election Day is almost here. Will it be an early night for political junkies?
36 days: If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 4 in the U.S. Senate race in Georgia, the battle for a filibuster-proof Democratic majority could extend all the way into an early December runoff. National Democrats have poured money into the state of late under the belief that Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) can be beaten, either on Nov. 4 or Dec. 2.
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IMAGE; By Ted S. Warren -- Associated Press; Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, left, and former state senator Dino Rossi might offer Republicans some cheer, with the governor's races in North Carolina and Washington state running neck and neck. A recent poll showed McCrory and his Democratic challenger tied at 43 percent. In Washington state, where Rossi is battling the Democratic incumbent, strategists on both sides say that the contest could go either way.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 27, 2008 Monday 2:00 PM EST
Outlook: Obama and the End of Fundraising Limits;
Democratic Campaigns Actions Show Campaign Finance Reform Is a Partisan Tool, Not Good Policy
BYLINE: Bradley A. Smith, Former Chairman, Federal Election Commission; Chairman, Center for Competitive Politics, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3710 words
HIGHLIGHT: "The most extraordinary development in this year's election may well be the Obama fundraising juggernaut. First, the Illinois senator raised and spent record amounts in winning the Democratic nomination. Then, unlike Sen. John McCain, he decided not to take a taxpayer subsidy to run his general election campaign. ... That's fine by me. Obama's epic fundraising should put to rest all the shibboleths about campaign finance reform -- that it is needed to prevent corruption, that it equalizes the playing field, or that tax subsidies are needed to prevent corruption."
"The most extraordinary development in this year's election may well be the Obama fundraising juggernaut. First, the Illinois senator raised and spent record amounts in winning the Democratic nomination. Then, unlike Sen. John McCain, he decided not to take a taxpayer subsidy to run his general election campaign. ... That's fine by me. Obama's epic fundraising should put to rest all the shibboleths about campaign finance reform -- that it is needed to prevent corruption, that it equalizes the playing field, or that tax subsidies are needed to prevent corruption."
Former FEC chairman and current Center for Competitive Politics chairman Bradley A. Smith was online Monday, Oct. 27 at 2 p.m. ET to discuss his article on what Obama's astounding donation totals mean for the future of money in politics.
The transcript follows.
Archive: Transcripts of discussions with Outlook article authors
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Bradley A. Smith: OK, Brad Smith here.
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Redmond, Wash.: Good afternoon. If I gave to the Obama campaign monthly either $50, $75, or $100 at a time since February, am I a small donor, as no donation was greater than $200, or am I a large donor, as the total is somewhere around $1,500? There are many of us who have done this, and I'm just curious as to how we are characterized? I would prefer to be known as just an average American individual without an agenda. Thanks.
Bradley A. Smith: Good question. People tally it different ways, which is why you will see some claims that almost 50% of Senator Obama's contributions are under $200, and other claims that only about 25% are under that amount. I think the smaller number, based on number of individuals, not number of donations, makes more sense in measuring his support.
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Bel Air, Md.: The huge amount of money raised in this election by Obama spells the death of campaign finance reform. Looks like that several people donated more than the whatever limit it is by using fictitious names and addresses and contributing several under-$200 donations. Names like Mickey Mouse and Will B. Good may be flagged easily, but if they were a step more clever and used innocuous names, they would not be flagged. Contrary to your assessment, this indeed is corrupting the process.
Bradley A. Smith: Well, not really. These contributions are made by credit card. The campaign therefore has a way to track the real donors, and a legal obligation to report the sources accurately or refund the money. I'm comfortable that will happen. You might say the process is working.
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Alexandria, Va.: I was surprised to see the over- and under-$200 divide. As a first time poitical contributor, through the months my four or five small donations probably add up to about $235 for Obama, but I don't feel like a big contributor, but instead a connected, in-it-for-the-long haul participant. And for the first time, I didn't feel like any small contribution I might give to a candidate was not of substantive value, because the big money wasn't driving the election. Am I overly naive here? I would like to think there are a lot of folks like me who got to our total in small amounts over time.
Bradley A. Smith: Well, there is always a question as to what is a "small donor." People use the $200 cut-off because that's the threshold at which the campaign must itemize donor information.
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Melbourne, Fla.: How can anyone believe that those millions upon millions of dollars didn't come with strings attached? What price will the people have to pay if BHO is elected and the donors come looking for payback?
Bradley A. Smith: How could over one million donors get "payback?" I don't think it's much of a secret what Obama wants to do, and lots of people are going to vote for him for those reasons. I think they're wrong, foolish, I don't think they've thought it through. But I can't dictate their votes or their financial support.
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Anniston, Ala.: It is disturbing that Obama has more than $250 million in credit card contributions of $200 or less, where the sources have not been made public. I understand that by law this is not required, but what happens if, after he is elected president, we learn that these contributions came from foreign countries that are our enemies or that support terrorism?
Bradley A. Smith: I presume a tremendous political backlash, massive Republican gains in 2010, and possibly even impeachment before then.
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Falls Church, Va.: I've been asking this question for days and have yet to get an answer. Please help. If there are funds left in the Obama campaign coffers on Nov. 5., what happens to them? Thank you.
Bradley A. Smith: Basically, he can give them to the Democratic Party; save them and transfer them to his re-election campaign for President or Senate, or give them to charity.
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Arlington, Va.: Do we know what percentage of Obama's money has come from small donations, and how much has been from big-money "bundlers" and lobbyists?
Bradley A. Smith: You know, "bundlers" are just people who ask their friends and acquaintances to contribute. The government already knows if you gave to Obama (or McCain), and if I gave to Obama (or McCain). Does it really need to keep a database noting that I gave to Obama because you asked me to? Does it need to track our political conversations? I think far too much is made of bundlers. And if we were to introduce the Patriot II Act, with a goal of keeping foreing money out of politics by having government keep a database of citizen political participation, we'd be chased off the stage. But call it "campaign finance reform," and people are happy to tolerate invasions of privacy.
Anyway, to answer your question, there is no definitive number, but Obama has a bit over 500 identified "bundlers" - people raising at least $50,000 - who have helped him raise somewhere in excess of $63 million, or about 10% of his haul, maybe up to 25% or so.
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Nosh1: Odd, I don't remember any Republicans expressing concern or outrage when George W. Bush decided not to take public financing in 2004, when he was outraising and outspending Kerry by two to one margins. I don't remember any Republicans complaining that Bush was buying that election, so why the outrage now? Oh, thats right ... it's "do as I say, not as I do." Got it.
Bradley A. Smith: Well, 1) Bush did not outspend Kerry by anything close to two to one - it was about a seven to six ratio; 2)Bush did take public financing in the general election; neither Kerry nor Bush took tax financing in the primaries; and 3) that's one point of my article - Republicans weren't complaining then, and Democrats were; now the shoe is on the other foot, and many people in both parties change their tune.
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mattrose: The principle difference I see (as an Obama supporter) is the lack of Pioneers and Rangers in the Obama campaign. You try to define a "large" contribution as $200, or $1,000. But when you donate $1,000 you are still wholely unremarkable, and therefor not eligible to buy influence regarding U.S. spending policy.
The Bush and now McCain fundraising model was desiged around creating identifiable "Pioneers" and "Rangers" who were responsible for "bundling" $100,000 or $250,000. These individuals were then given direct access to influence policy decissions and reward themselves with government spending and tax breaks. On the other hand, if I donate $2,300 to Obama, I get nothing except the satisfaction of knowing I'm helping to elect someone who doesn't consder my tax dollar "spoils to the victor."
Bradley A. Smith: As noted in an earlier answer, in fact Obama does have his bundlers - I don't recall if he has created a catchy title for them, such as "Ranger" or "Pioneer." But they're responsible for raising at least $63 million for him. That's the thing - the Obama campaign really isn't different, it's just more successful.
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Corolla, N.C.: I'm not sure I agree with your basic premise that Obama's fundraising ability this year points to a new way of political fundraising and that there is no need for limits in political contributions. Are the many contributors of small dollars to Obama always going to come back and participate financially in coming elections? Could it be that the large number of small-dollar contributors only are giving money because of things unique to this election, such as the war(s), President Bush's partisan ways and the unique candidacy of Sen. Obama ?
Bradley A. Smith: Could be. My position would stand - campaign finance restrictions have not addressed corruption, do not make the system more fair or equal, and in fact they gum up the system, intrude on our rights, and most harm small, grassroots campaigns.
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Bozeman, Mont.: I didn't understand what you meant by this answer: "I don't think it's much of a secret what Obama wants to do, and lots of people are going to vote for him for those reasons. I think they're wrong, foolish, I don't think they've thought it through. But I can't dictate their votes or their financial support."
Bradley A. Smith: Obama has been pretty clear on his likely policies, I think they are wrong on won't work, but other people like them and plan to vote for him for those policies. That's democracy.
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SteadyState: What is not examined in this article would be the reasons why someone like Barack Obama would have to raise so much money to combat an incumbent party that relies on personal attacks over substance in the issues. Clearly, given the gap in expenditures in comparison to the polls, it has taken quite a bit of money for the Obama/Biden ticket to advertise their message effectively above the vile McCain/Palin attempts.
Does this high amount of fundraising have potentially negative implications? Absolutely. We do need to avoid "special favors" going to big donors. However, they have to fight the infectious slime the Republican National Committee no doubt has prepared or already has dished out. Given the number of people still questioning Obama's associations, from a sociological perspective, Obama had a mountain to climb to ease people into the idea of a black president with a foreign-sounding name. Had Obama simply accepted the tax-funded campaign budget, could he have won?
Bradley A. Smith: You won't win me over with partisanship. It seems to me that no President has fought such personal villification as Bush, and that no candidate I can recall, even Dan Quayle, has ever been so personally villified. It's all perspective.
The problem comes when you lose your perspective, and think one side is evil, and the other is the party of angels. Partisans always think the other side is making unfair arguments.
But could Obama have won if he'd taken the tax subsidy in the general election? Sure, I think so. I guess we'll never know for sure, though. And it doesn't bother me.
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Arlington, Va.: Just to counter some of the paranoid posts -- I'm one of those small donors that you fear so much. In prior elections the only thing I ever did to support any candidate was to vote for him or her -- I never gave money or volunteered my time. I intended to do the same this year and already had decided to vote for Obama, but back in early September I became so disgusted with the McCain/Palin campaign that I went to Obama's Web site and made a donation.
I since have made two additional donations. All three were responses to something that was said by the McCain/Palin campaign. In all I've given less than $100. I was born in the U.S. and have lived here all my life, and despite various Republican's claims I'm not a communist or anti-American. I'm just a regular person who has every right to vote and to support a candidate with my time and money.
Bradley A. Smith: I wish more people thought like you; not your support for Obama ;-) - but about your motives for supporting Obama and your willingness to back up your beliefs.
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Reston, Va.: McCain keeps saying that Obama is trying to buy the election. Isn't it more like the citizens are? They're the ones contributing the money.
Bradley A. Smith: Right on!
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If there are funds left in the Obama campaign coffers on Nov. 5., what happens to them?: Can he also use them to hire lawyers for the inevitable ballot counting disputes?
Bradley A. Smith: Didn't I answer this? They can go to the Party, be used in future campaigns, or be given to charity.
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Wilmington, N.C.:"Former FEC chairman." Given your obvious political leanings, I must say I find that very disturbing. Is that a partisan political post? Should it be?
Bradley A. Smith: The FEC has six commissioners, with no more than 3 from any one political party. Four votes are needed for most action. So one party can't dictate outcomes. I found that the Commission worked pretty well.
But you've really hit the nail on the head - how can you maintain over time a truly unbiased political police? That's why I generally would deregulate the system, or at least start in that direction. We need separation of campaigns and state, you might say.
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Maryland: The other day a friend and I were having a friendly argument. He was saying there should be more rules to limit how much a campaign can spend because $200 million is outrageous. I said "$200 million is rock-bottom cheap for a good presidential administration!" It's just a fifth of a billion dollars -- compare that to the cost of the Iraq war. Just saying.
Bradley A. Smith: You are right. Political spending needs to be kept in perspective. Americans will spend about $12 billion on potato chips this cycle. Coca Cola will spend more on advertising this year than will be spent by all the candidates who have run for president. Auto makers will spend more than twice as much this year advertising cars as all political spending for federal office. It cost money to communicate, whether you are talking about cars, cola, or politicians.
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Alexandria, Va.: The FEC audits all presidential campaigns that accept public money. Does that mean that the Obana campaign never will be audited by the FEC? Although I will vote for Obama, I think it would be good public policy to have all the major presidential campaigns receive such a public audit.
Bradley A. Smith: Since Obama is not taking the tax subsidy, he will not be automatically audited. However, he does have to file reports; the FEC does have analysts who review these reports, and too many errors can trigger a full audit. Also, the FEC can investigate complaints, with full subpoena power - and complaints have been filed. So there will likely be some scrutiny.
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Calvert County, Md.: What happens to the $84 million Obama did not take? Are the rules any different on how the candidates spend money if they take public financing or do not?
Bradley A. Smith: He saved the taxpayers $84 million. It will remain available for 2012.
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Washington: Some people seem very concerned by the large number of $200 or less donors. What's the cause for concern? Isn't the goal of campaign finance reform to limit influence through donations? If you get enough small donations, you don't have to go after the "big fish." Doesn't that mean you're beholden to nobody and can speak/act freely?
Bradley A. Smith: I think the concern people have is that the campaign doesn't have to disclose information on all those small donors. In theory, it would possible to, for example, take $50 million from Al Qaeda and then say it was all "small contributions" that are unitemized.
In reality, for many reasons, I see that as pretty far fetched. Every presidential campaign returns thousands of dollars in donations to people who intentionally, or much, much more often inadvertently, violate the law. Obama has raised over $600 million - if he has to return even $2 or $3 million as coming from people not eligible to contribute, or to contribute as much as they have, that is not terribly shocking. It's what? about three-tenths of one percent?
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Boston: What do you think of contribution limits? I do like that people like Soros and Pickens can't just hand over huge chunks of money, which would mean that a candidate without wealthy donors would have to have hundreds of thousands of donors to just match up; $2,300 is more than I can afford, but me and nine friends can contribute $23 and match the richest person.
Bradley A. Smith: I think contribution limits should be much higher. Contribution limits most harm challengers to incumbents and political newcomers - both groups rely more on large contributions. The limit was first imposed in 1974 at $1000. Today it is $2300, but if it were fully adjusted for inflation, it would be about $4300. I would at least start with that - let's raise it for inflation. After all, the campaigns of 1976 and 1980 weren't so bad.
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Richmond, Va.: I'm an Obama supporter, and I received an e-mail from an acquaintance stating a concern that Obama was being funded heavily by foreign donors. Is this true? Is this even legal?
Bradley A. Smith: Foreign contributions are illegal. The FEC has flagged the Obama campaign for a few million dollars that appear to have come from foreign addresses. But note that much of this may be from U.S. citizens living overseas, which would be legal. Some of it may be data entry errors when the reports were filled out, for example a person's state abbreviated "ON" (Ontario) rather than "OH" (Ohio). And some may be overly zealous aliens making contributions, which will have to be returned. The campaign could be fined for accepting illegal contributions.
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Detroit: When you talk about removing campaign financing restrictions because Obama has raised so much money, doesn't that ignore the fact that he has had so many donors? When you have a limit $2,300, if you want to raise a lot of money you have to seek out a lot of people. As far as I know, Obama has many "big" donors giving the max, but his fundraising base is so much larger than anything ever encountered in American politics.
That funding base may be more about Bush and the state of the country then Obama -- it's hard to know -- but if you remove contribution limits, what's to stop some a few billionaires from donating millions of dollars themselves? Isn't the entire point of contribution limits to try to limit the individual influence of the donors? Sure, you might have bundlers, but the point is to avoid unions, corporations or other huge funding sources buy candidates in chunks.
Bradley A. Smith: Well, a few billionaires is not all bad. Eugene McCarthy's 1968 anti-war campaign was funded by a few multi-millionaires. Teddy Roosevelt's campaigns were funded that way. So were Franklin Roosevelt's for that matter, some multi-millionaires plus unions.
Voters can look at the data and make judgments.
The reality is that large contributions are most needed by challengers, especially real challengers to the status quo, such as McCarthy. Precisely because they challenge the status quo, there aren't lots of people with them. They need the true believers to open their wallets.
Think of it this way - imagine if you wanted to open a business with a neat, brand new idea, but no one bank could contribute more than $2300: you'd never get enough banks to loan you the money. But it wouldn't matter how many banks turned you down if one bank could make a loan for the full amount. Then your business is up and running, and the market decides.
Why not do that with campaign finance: Make it easier to raise money, to get all voices heard, and let the voters decide?
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London: Okay, so I live in London -- temporarily. I'm an American citizen (my direct line backward has been in what is now the U.S. since the 1740s), registered voter, and I'm returning to the U.S. in 2010. But I wasn't able to donate online using a credit card -- when I tried to select the "donate now" button to see if I could, my IP immediately was flagged and I was told I couldn't. So how were people able to work around that? (I know I could have sent a check, but I am asking just about the credit cards online.)
Bradley A. Smith: Don't know. It may be that the campaign has responded to the criticism by limiting overseas addresses, but that's just speculation on my part.
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Anonymous: My parents are now divided politically. Both had been Republicans for decades, but my mother has decided that she is a Democrat. I am glad this occurred long after I moved out. After McCain's air quotes moment in the debate ("life of the mother") my mom decided she wanted to give money to the campaign without dad knowing, and asked if I would pass along a donation from her. From everything I could find on Obama's Web site this would not be okay. Not wanting to get her new party in trouble, mom is working the phone banks and not giving cash. Are we right? Would this have been wrong?
Bradley A. Smith: It is illegal to give money in the name of another person.
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Bradley A. Smith: Well, thanks, it has been fun. Here are a few links for campaign finance junkies:
www.opensecrets.org has lots of info on candidate fundraising. I don't agree with their policy prescriptions, but as a source of info, it's good.
www.fec.gov is the Federal Election Commission site. There you can view the raw data in reports and the like.
www.campaignfreedom.org is the Center for Competitive Politics, which offers a more deregulatory view of campaign finance. I founded the Center in 2005.
www.moresoftmoneyhardlaw.com is the site of election attorney Bob Bauer, General Counsel to the Obama campaign. Bob always has an interesting take on election and campaign finance issues.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 27, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Election 2008 Key States: Virginia
BYLINE: Tim Craig, Washington Post Virginia Politics Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2715 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post Virginia politics reporter Tim Craig was online Monday, Oct. 27 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential race in Virginia -- which could vote for a Democratic prsidential candidate for the first time since 1964 -- and to discuss the Warner-Gilmore Senate race and the competitive U.S. House and state legislature races in the state.
Washington Post Virginia politics reporter Tim Craig was online Monday, Oct. 27 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential race in Virginia -- which could vote for a Democratic prsidential candidate for the first time since 1964 -- and to discuss the Warner-Gilmore Senate race and the competitive U.S. House and state legislature races in the state.
Battleground Cheat Sheet: Virginia; Also this week: More discussions on key states
The transcript follows.
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Tim Craig: Good afternoon. I am here. One week to go. Its been an exciting year to cover Virginia politics. Ready to take some questions
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Washington: Which are the most combative counties in Virginia, where is the race closest? Thanks.
Tim Craig: The big battle this year in Virginia is in the exurbs. Whichever candidate wins Loudoun and Prince William in the outer Washington suburbs will likely prevail statewide. Both of these places had been reliably Republicans, and easily went for Bush in 2004, but Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) won them in 2005, as did Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) in 2006. Also keep an eye on Henrico County in suburban Richmond. Hampton Roads is also a major battleground. With its mix of African-Americans, military voters and suburbanites, the region has some pretty dynamic politics. Its been trending Democratic, but national security and taxes remain huge factors in the region.
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Columbia, Md.: Pardon me for asking, but how do the major parties get a hold on their voters in a state that does not have a "party box" on voter registrations? I have been trying to figure this out for a few weeks.
Tim Craig: This is a major challenge for both parties, but one they have managed to overcome. The lack of party registration means both political parties have to devote considerable resources to identifying and tracking voters they believe are supportive. Democrats, for example, have compiled a massive database with the names of voters they know (or suspect) are supportive of their candidates. If someone votes in a Democratic primary, for example, it's a pretty safe assumption that person leans Democratic. Democrats also deploy canvassers into the neighborhoods every year to talk to voters individually. When they come across a someone who identifies themselves as being a Democrat, that information is entered into the database. Republicans have a similar system. The information is then used to target voters in get-out-the-vote efforts. Both parties also know that people who live in certain neighborhoods or communities tend to lean toward one party or another.
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Seattle: To what extent do Obama's gains in Virginia represent a lasting shift in Virginia's partisan alignment at the presidential level? Is this something that only Obama can pull-off, or are partisan affiliations in Northern Virginia so rooted in demographics that Democrats can count on Virginia as at least a swing state for the forseeable future?
Tim Craig: Excellent question, but one I don't think we will know the answer to fully for at least another presidential election cycle. There is no doubt that Northern Virginia has moved sharply toward the Democrats over the past decade. Some of this is due to President Bush, but a lot of it has to do with fundamental demographic shifts. People often forget that, until four years ago, Fairfax County was reliably Republican in presidential contests. John Kerry was the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the county in 44 years. Obama is currently polling in the high 50s or low 60s in Fairfax. The change corresponds with the rapid diversification of the region. One staggering statistic - one in four of Fairfax County's 1 million residents are now foreign born. It will likely be increasingly difficult for a GOP presidential nominee to carry Fairfax County, but I suspect it will still come down to the right combination of Republican and Democratic candidates. Could a very moderate GOP nominee defeat a very liberal Democratic nominee? Probably in the short term, but probably not in the long-term as Fairfax becomes more urban.
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Washington: How many newly registered voters are there in Virginia? Where are most of these voters located within the state?
Tim Craig: There was a net increase of 436,000 newly registered voters this year, a 10 percent increase over a year ago. There is no party registration in Virginia, but communities with a history of supporting Democratic candidates appear to have logged the greatest percentage increase. African-Americans also appeared to be registering in higher numbers. The city of Richmond, for example, saw its registration rolls grow by nearly 20 percent this year. Many Republican-leaning counties in the rural western part of the state saw their registration numbers grow by less than 5 percents. But some traditional Republican exurban counties also saw a big jump in registration. A big unknown is whether the new voters in the exurbs are traditional GOP voters who recently moved into places such as Chesterfield County in suburban Richmond or are they Democrats who are now registering for the first, which could help offset historical GOP strengths in those areas. Democrats believe the latter. I tend to agree with the Democrats, but we will not know for sure until Nov. 4.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: I see this morning that Chuck Todd on MSNBC moved Virginia from "leaning toward Obama" to being likely Obama. What do you think of this recategorization of Viriginia in this year's presidential election?
Tim Craig: Obama has led in every major poll of Virginia that I have seen over the past six weeks. In some polls, he leads by at least 10 points. He was up 8 in the Washington Post poll this morning. Looking just at those numbers, I think you would be safe assuming it looks like Obama will win Virginia. But considering the state's history of supporting GOP candidates, I am hesitant to call it for Obama. Republicans also seem to stage a bit of a comeback in Virginia at the last moment. In 1996, President Clinton thought he had a shot to win Virginia, but Bob Dole prevailed. Also, Democrat Jim Webb was suppose to have a three or four point lead heading into the 2006 Senate race, but he won by only 9,000 votes. I would advise both sides to continue to assume Virginia could go either way on Nov. 4.
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Rest of Virginia: Any predictions on the 2nd, 5th, and 11th congressional districts?
Tim Craig: All three are held Republican held seats, but U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va) is retiring in the 11th.
Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the 11th, and I see no reason to doubt that given the increasing Democratic tilt of Fairfax.
In the 2nd District, U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake (R-Va)is fighting Democrat Glenn Nye. Drake is probably the favorite - she survived a tough fight in 2006 - but the Virginia Beach- based district is 20 percent black so a big showing for Obama could result in Drake getting bounced.
In the 5th, U.S. Rep. Virgil Goode is facing a stronger than expected challenge from Democrat Tom Perriello. It would be a huge upset if Goode loses in the historically conservative district. With that said, some Democrats are starting to talk about this being the surprise of the night on Nov. 4.
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Baltimore: What role has former Sen. George Allen played in the campaign for Virginia? Has McCain deliberately tried to distance himself from him because of the '06 controversy?
Tim Craig: No, Senator Allen has emerged as one of McCain's biggest surrogates in Virginia. Allen does events for McCain almost everyday. Allen's image has been somewhat reformed since 2006, but McCain is still taking a risk. Overall, however, it probably does not matter one way or another.
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Tappahannock, Va.: Tim, do you think the move of Virginia to swing state has been overstated a bit? Much has been made of the 2006 Senate race going to Webb, but I don't think he won it as much as the Allen campaign completely imploded after the "macaca" incident. I think the state has turned a little purple, but not to the extent everyone is saying.
Tim Craig: There is no doubt that Virginia is purple. But the outcome of this year's presidential race as well as next year's governor's race could help determine whether it will remain purple or even trend a bit more blue. Large swaths of Virginia remain very conservative, but so are large swaths of Illinois. All it takes in Illinois is Chicago to turn the state from Republican to Democratic. Eventually, if current trends persist for another decade or so, Northern Virginia could become Illinois's Chicago. Next year's governor's race really will say a lot about the political future of the state. If Democrats win three consecutive governor's race, it will be hard to argue against the trend
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Anonymous: Is Jim Webb out there stumping for Obama? Is Webb popular?
Tim Craig: Webb has cut a radio ad for Obama. Webb did a round of campaign events last week, but he has not been a major presence on the trail.
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Arlington, Va.: Do you think the violent incident with Frank Wolf's associates assaulting two Judy Feder staffers will push the 10th District race into competitive territory?
Tim Craig: An update to this story has just been posted on the Virginia politics blog.
blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics
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Alexandria, Va.: Tim, with a seemingly insurmountable lead by Mark Warner and a Virginia Republican party in some state of disarray, how much of a reverse coattail effect might there be for Obama?
Tim Craig: I am sure Warner helps Obama some in the rural parts of the state, but overall I am not one to believe there is such as thing as "reverse coattail effect." If you look at the polls in North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, etc, its clear that Obama is doing well in a state like Virginia because of his message, the economy and President Bush. With that said, Warner could help Obama pick up a point or two in Southwest Virginia, but I tend think most people are going to be showing up to vote in the presidential contest. I actually think that Obama could end up helping Warner gain a few points. Obama is going to drive up African-American and young voter turnout to historic levels, and those people are going to turn around and vote for Warner.
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Arlington, Va.: The Arlington Democrats had set a goal of 80 percent turnout, with 80 percent Democratic votes, I believe. Based on what I've seen of canvassing in Arlington, that seems like a stretch, but it's still possible. What's your take? A big margin in Arlington has the potential to help carry the state for Obama.
Tim Craig: I am skeptical Arlington will be able to achieve that goal. The high points have been in Kaine and Webb's recent elections, when Arlington voted about 75 percent Democratic. I think in a presidential race, its going to be hard to move much beyond that. People tend to forget that Northern Virginia is still home to tens of thousands of people who make a living by working for Republicans or conservative causes. There is also a huge workforce at the Pentagon and in the defense contracting industry. There comes a point when Democrats reach a ceiling in Northern Virginia.
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Richmond, Va.: Any word on the Cantor-Hartke race in the 7th District? Is that such a Republican stronghold that even if Obama holds on to a large lead in Virginia, it's still a sure thing for Cantor?
Tim Craig: Haven't followed this race too closely, but Cantor is up on the air in Richmond with a major ad buy. He should be easily reelected given the conservative nature of his district. Bush carried it with 61 percent of the vote in 2004.
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Alexandria, Va.: What are the standard voter turnout percentages for Virginia during presidential elections? Could 2008 surpass them? By how much?
Tim Craig: Virginia historically has a pretty good voter turnout. In 2004, turnout was about 71 percent. I would not be surprised if it approaches 85 percent this year. In 1992, turnout was 84.5 percent, according to State Board of Elections.
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Hampton Cove, Ala.: Military family Web sites are abuzz with the news that Rokey Suleman, the Fairfax County Election's chief who also happens to be a Democrat operative, is rejecting military absentee ballots. I would think this would be covered in The Washington Post, but as the military community has found, the bias at The Post has become so extreme that the motto is "if it doesn't benefit Democrats, censor it."
Tim Craig: we wrote a story about this last week.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302881.html
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Burke, Va.: Has Sen. Obama made any significant progress in wooing likely voters in Southwest Virginia to vote for him?
Tim Craig: This will be fascinating to watch on Election Day. During the primary, Obama failed to get even 15 percent of the vote in several of these counties. But recent polls indicate Obama may now be getting close to 40 percent of the vote. I think he is making progress, but I now Democratic strategists remain nervous about how well he will actually do on Election Day down there. He doesn't have to win Southwest Virginia to prevail statewide, but he has got to keep McCain's margins down to reasonable levels. He probably needs somewhere between 40 and 44 percent of the vote.
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Virginia: Interestingly enough I have spoken to several people in Virginia who are going to vote for Obama but wouldn't say so in public, because of the bias towards Republicans in rural Virginia. Do you think there are others?
Tim Craig: Interesting..
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Clifton, Va.: How long beofre the Virginia Republican Party realizes that putting up Gilmore for the Senate, Fimian in 11th District and Cuccinelli for Attorney General just will not work anymore? Social issues just don't work with Cathloic independents like me. Home-schooling your kids autoamtically means I won't vote for you. I would vote for Davis over Gilmore, and just about any more middle-of-the-road Republican over the most crooked politician in Virginia, Connolly. Now, I am pro-life and reasonably conservative, but stop giving me nutcases to vote for like Fimian and Cuccinelli!
Tim Craig: I predict, if McCain loses this year, the Virginia GOP will move even farther to the right. They will argue that McCain would have done better had he been stronger on illegal immigration, abortion and other social issues. There is a real divide within in GOP. Yes, in Northern Virginia a little moderation would probably help the party. But in the rest of Virginia, the conservative brand still sells effectively. Attorney General Robert McDonnell, the GOP nominee for governor, is going to have to figure how he positions himself. I think the civil war within the Virginia GOP will break out in 2010 if McDonnell loses next year. If McDonnell wins, the party will chalk up its loses this decade to President Bush and the war in Iraq.
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Richmond, Va.: The VCU poll this morning has Obama up 51 percent to 40 percent. It is unusual to have 9 percent undecided basically a week before the election?
Tim Craig: I think a lot of those undecideds will break for McCain. I had to call some undecided voters two weeks from a previous poll, and I got a sense they were more inclined to support the GOP. With that said, if Obama is at 51 or 52 percent, he wins so long as his base of support remains solid... But I would be shocked if Obama gets 54 or 55 percent of the vote on Election Day. If he wins Virginia - which remains "if" - it won't be by more than a few points.
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Tim Craig: Thanks everyone. Sorry I couldn't get to all the questions. If you have something else you would like me to answer, email me at craigt@washpost.com
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 28, 2008
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119 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 27, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post White House Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2405 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Michael Abramowitz was online Monday, Oct. 27 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Fairfax County, Va.: It looks to me as though Barack Obama's decision to leave the trail to visit his gravely ill grandmother had absolutely no effect on the outcome of this presidential election, pro or con. Is that correct? If so, is this something future presidential candidates should point out to their schedulers as the big day approaches? Contrary to past conventional wisdom, maybe it's okay to be human and take off a couple of days after all. The same observation applies to Joe Biden's recent compassionate leave for his mother-in-law's death and funeral as well. The campaign seemed to trundle along then also.
Michael Abramowitz: Good morning everybody: I am back from a week with the McCain campaign.
I absolutely agree with you that Obama's departure from the campaign trail had little impact on the race; in fact, it might have even helped him a bit by producing a flurry of stories about him and his grandmother that humanized him a bit.
I will also add, however, that I suspect it would have hurt McCain if he had been forced to do this. So much of the communications from the Obama campaign has been from paid advertising, but McCain relies much more on the free attention he gets from local media covering his rallies and doing interviews with him. That's simply a function of the heavy advantage Obama has in financial resources. So McCain he were forced to leave the trail for a couple of days, I think it would hurt him more.
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Helena, Mont.: This election and the midterm in 2006 should put to rest that legislatures can redistrict and make "safe" congressional seats for all time -- or even for 10 years. I remember the venerable Bob Schieffer in 2004 going on about how the House of Representatives was just going to stay the same because of redistricting. We should throw that conventional wisdom in the trash heap. I hope the Democrats see the value of being responsive to the voters in their districts, even with Obama in the White House -- it's what "representative democracy" is all about.
Michael Abramowitz: I think this is a valuable point. I do think in normal times, it's pretty hard to dislodge a congressional incumbent. But this seems like it could be one of those elections that comes along every 10 or 15 years where even seemingly safe incumbents get swept away in a larger tide.
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Cleveland: The latest (and very good) McCain ad -- or more appropriately, anti-Obama commercial -- shows an empty chair in the Oval Office, indicating that there's a problem with Obama being "tested" early in his administration. Is the ad supposed to let me know that Obama's not ready to be tested, that no one will dare to test McCain for whatever reason, or that he's such a maverick that no one knows how he'd respond to a situation, just that he'd respond?
Michael Abramowitz: I think it's some combination of the first two points: That Obama is untested, and that McCain is tested--and hence voters should trust him more to handle the inevitable crises that come the president's way.
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Anonymous: The subject of the deficit has come up occasionally during the campaign (I believe McCain promsied to eliminate the deficit, even as he continues the $10 billion-a-month wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and in fact promises to increase defense spending), but it certainly has not been mentioned as much as taxes. Just how realistic is it to promise tax cuts and a lowered, if not eliminated, deficit at the same time? I cannot see a candidate getting elected on a platform of "Maybe No Lower Taxes for Now, but No More Deficit." The fact that the deficit largely is financed by other countries is worrying to me but apparently not to the people eager for lowered taxes (and no cuts in services, of course).
Michael Abramowitz: I don't think it is realistic, and I don't think either candidate has offered a plausible plan for reducing the deficit. Now I will add that many economists don't think now is the time to try for a serious deficit reduction program, given the state of the economy. But the political reality is that there is little salience in deficit reduction as a political winner at almost any time. (There is, occasionally, some salience in proposals to reduce spending, but this may be one year where most voters don't care that most about spending.)
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Baltimore: Hi Michael. So, what's the mood like with the McCain campaign?
Michael Abramowitz: I get asked this question all the time: I don't think they are particulaly happy with the way the election is going, and they are realistic about their prospects. But they are not giving up either.
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Sewickley, Pa.: Have you traveled with McCain before? Do you see a difference in his demeanor toward reporters? What is the mood on the campaign plane?
Michael Abramowitz: I have traveled with McCain a little bit this fall, but I have not been with him in his previous incarnations as someone who has a lot of interaction with the traveling press. He is doing interviews (like Meet the Press this past Sunday) and he has been talking to local reporters. When we had a bus tour through Florida last week, the national press was largely kept away, though he did a round of interviews with local reporters. I found his staff resonably friendly and helpful given the circumstances they find themselves now. As I suugested in my last answer, they are realistic but still defiant, hoping to pull a rabbit out of their hat.
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Euless, Texas: I see the Republicans are trying to push the idea of "checks and balances" in government -- that that's why we need a Republican president. I didn't hear them worrying about that from 2000 to 2006. Do you think that talking point holds any water?
Michael Abramowitz: Well, when you are behind, you use every argument you can. I do think that voters in general do like divided government, but again this may be one of those elections where the traditional arguments don't hold water. Where perhaps it may help the GOP is in some of those Senate races, like in Kentucky, where the GOP is hoping to keep the Democrats from getting a veto-proof majority.
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New Orleans: Michael, In your estimation, is McCain tiring on the campaign trail? Yesterday on "Meet the Press" he looked tired. It wasn't so much that he forgot George Schulz -- that can happen to anybody -- but that he took so long with it even into the next question. I'm sure they are all tired, but the wear-and-tear on a 72-year-old man must be tough,
Michael Abramowitz: I agree he looked a bit tired on Meet the Press, but my general impression has been surprise at how vigorous he has looked in the wake of what must be a back-breaking scheduled for a candidate of any age. He is very fiesty and undaunted fo the most part.
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Woodbine, Md.: Has the Bush administration been entirely outfoxed on its Sudan policy by the regime in Khartoum?
Michael Abramowitz: A non-political question in a sea of politics!
I wouldn't say they have been outfoxed. The Khartoum regime is wily and has a good sense of how to survive. The reality is that no one in the world, including the US., Europe and others, has an interest in a military campaign to depose President Bashir. Given that, its been hard to have much influence there, as both the Clinton and Bush administrations found. The White House feels that its economic sanctions are having an impact, but it's a slow process, and now we will have a new administration that I am sure will have its own Sudan policy. (I am not saying military action is a good idea, but I am just pointing out the realities.)
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Anonymous: After the elections, the pressure to name a Treasury secretary in these times of economic uncertainity, a G-20 meeting on Nov. 15, the expiring of the U.S./Iraq status of forces agreement and other issues will be huge. Bush soon will be the lamest of lame ducks, and the country, the world and the media will want to look past him. How do see the 3 months between the election and inaguaration unfolding? It should be fascinating.
Michael Abramowitz: I agree with you. I am sure that given the financial crisis, the new president, whether is Obama or McCain, will not want to wait to start putting its imprint on things. If it's Obama, I suspect there will be an immediate push in a lame-duck Congress for a new economic stimulus package. If McCain scores an upset, I am sure he will also try to cook something up, though the philosophical divide between him and the congressional Democrats is broad.
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Chicago: From your perspective covering the campaign, do McCain's people seem to be paying any attention to the criticism they're getting from the right? Bill Kristol, for example, uses every New York Times column he writes to critique what the campaign is doing. Frum wrote in The Post that the campaign should look at triage for the greater good of the party. Is this getting through to them, or are they actually upbeat? (Is the Straight Talk Express a bummer-free zone?) Thanks.
washingtonpost.com: Sorry, Senator. Let's Salvage What We Can. (Post, Oct. 26)
Michael Abramowitz: I think they are well aware of the criticism, but they are trying to tune it out. This is what happens to campaigns that are perceived to be losing: they get a lot of unwanted and unsolicited second-guessing and advice.
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Biden's "Gaffe": I have to know, what was it about Biden saying that Obama would be tested during his first six months that was a "gaffe"? If I were one of the "Axis of Evil" or "bad guys," I'd want to throw trouble to the new guy to see what he was made of. It's one thing for the McCain campaign to make a big deal of it -- that is expected -- but why does the press think it a "gaffe"? What was factually wrong about what he said? It's not the same as saying that FDR went on TV in 1929.
Michael Abramowitz: It's not the same, but it did gave McCain an opening to say that the other guy is untested. I suspect Biden would like to have that comment back.
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Veto-proof majority: I don't think the Democrats have a chance for a veto-proof majority in the Senate. Perhaps you were thinking about the cloture issue?
Michael Abramowitz: Right. I meant filibuster-proof majority. Thanks.
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Southwest Nebraska: Whose decision was it to go into Syria? Does the commander on the ground have that kind of leeway?
Michael Abramowitz: Reporters are still gathering information about this, but this kind of thing has happened before, and the commanders on the ground have leeway to do this. We have no reason to think, as another reader asked, that President Bush ordered this.
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Arlington, Va.: For many years, some folks have claimed the results of the Redskins game the weekend before the election will predict the election. (I don't remember how, though...) However, this year the 'Skins are off the weekend before the election. How will this effect the results?
washingtonpost.com: They're not off -- the Steelers visit FedEx for Monday Night Football on Election Eve.
Michael Abramowitz: As my friends at washingtonpost.com point out, the 'Skins are playing Monday night, so I don't know whether that changes the significance of this valuable indicator!
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Southwest Nebraska: Will Condi Rice endorse either candidate for President? When, or why not?
Michael Abramowitz: She will not, because she still works for the administration.
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Fort Worth, Texas: What are the latest poll figures for Obama and McCain, please?
Michael Abramowitz: Our latest poll shows Obama up 52-44 among likely voters.
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Montgomery Village, Md.: So Gov. Palin is in Virginia today. Is she really attracting any new voters or changing any undecideds, who seem to be migrating much more to Obama? It seems like all she does is bring out her already-convinced supporters. Is ther much talk within the McCain camp that she is running a "rogue" campaign and positioning herself for the future?
washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: The Post's Tim Craig on the State of the Election in Virginia (washingtonpost.com, noon ET today)
Michael Abramowitz: I don't sense, from my reading of our polls, that she is helping broaden the appeal of the ticket beyond the GOP base. There has been some reports of friction between the McCain and Palin advisers, which I suspect have some grounding in truth.
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Where are the McCain people?: I have canvassed for Democratic candidates for the last three elections. Out door-knocking in the neighborhoods, you have a nice camaraderie with your opposing canvassers, a "we're all in it together" mentality. That's changed this year -- not because it's a bitter election, but because I've yet to see any McCain canvassers or literature drops in New Hampshire (and I'm being sent to undecideds and Republican voter homes only). Where are the McCain people?
Michael Abramowitz: From talking with my colleagues who have been watching the so-called "ground game," the GOP does have a considerable volunteer army. But this year, the Democrats appear to have a larger, better-funded and more energized ground operation. So that may explain the discrepancy you see.
I am out of time, but I will be on-line again Friday answering questions.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 28, 2008
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120 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
October 26, 2008 Sunday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
The Making (and Remaking and Remaking) of the Candidate
BYLINE: By ROBERT DRAPER.
Robert Draper is a correspondent for GQ and the author of ''Dead Certain: The Presidency of , George W. Bush.''
SECTION: Section MM; Column 0; Magazine Desk; Pg. 54
LENGTH: 8570 words
On the morning of Wednesday, Sept. 24,John McCain convened a meeting in his suite at the Hilton hotel in Midtown Manhattan. Among the handful of campaign officials in attendance were McCain's chief campaign strategist, Steve Schmidt, and his other two top advisers: Rick Davis, the campaign manager; and Mark Salter, McCain's longtime speechwriter. The senator's ears were already throbbing with bad news from economic advisers and from House Republican leaders who had told him that only a small handful in their ranks were willing to support the $700 billion bailout of the banking industry proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The meeting was to focus on how McCain should respond to the crisis -- but also, as one participant later told me, ''to try to see this as a big-picture, leadership thing.''
As this participant recalled: ''We presented McCain with three options. Continue offering principles from afar. A middle ground of engaging while still campaigning. Then the third option, of going all in. The consensus was that we could stay out or go in -- but that if we're going in, we should go in all the way. So the thinking was, do you man up and try to affect the outcome, or do you hold it at arm's length? And no, it was not an easy call.''
Discussion carried on into the afternoon at the Morgan Library and Museum as McCain prepared for the first presidential debate. Schmidt pushed for going all in: suspending the campaign, recommending that the first debate be postponed, parachuting into Washington and forging a legislative solution to the financial crisis for which McCain could then claim credit. Exactly how McCain could convincingly play a sober bipartisan problem-solver after spending the previous few weeks garbed as a populist truth teller was anything but clear. But Schmidt and others convinced McCain that it was worth the gamble.
Schmidt in particular was a believer in these kinds of defining moments. The smartest bit of political wisdom he ever heard was dispensed by George W. Bush one spring day at the White House residence in 2004, at a time when his re-election effort was not going especially well. The strategists at the meeting -- including Schmidt, who was directing the Bush campaign's rapid-response unit -- fretted over their candidate's sagging approval ratings and the grim headlines about the war in Iraq. Only Bush appeared thoroughly unworried. He explained to them why, polls notwithstanding, voters would ultimately prefer him over his opponent, John Kerry.
There's an accidental genius to the way Americans pick a president, Schmidt remembers Bush saying that day. By the end of it all, a candidate's true character is revealed to the American people.
Had Schmidt been working for his present client back in 2000, he might have disputed Bush's premise. After all, in McCain's first run for the presidency, ''true character'' was the one thing the Vietnam hero and campaign-finance-reform crusader seemed to have going for him eight years ago in the Republican primaries. Bush had everything else, and he buried McCain. What campaigns peddle is not simply character but character as defined by story -- a tale of opposing forces that in its telling will memorably establish what a given election is about. In 2000, the McCain effort played like that of a smart and plucky independent film that ultimately could not compete for audiences against the Bush campaign's summer blockbuster. Four years later, in the race against John Kerry, Schmidt and the other Bush strategists had perfected their trade craft. With a major studio's brutal efficiency, they distilled the campaign into a megabudget melodrama pitting an unwavering commander in chief against a flip-flopper, set in a post-9/11 world where there could be no room for error or equivocation.
Schmidt has been in charge of strategy for the McCain campaign since early this summer, and his effort to prevail in the battle of competing story lines has been considerably more problematic. The selling of a presidential ''narrative'' the reigning buzz word of this election cycle has taken on outsize significance in an age in which a rush of visuals and catch words can cripple public images overnight. Mitt Romney, it is said, lost because he could not get his story straight. Hillary Clinton found her I'm-a-fighter leitmotif too late to save her candidacy. By contrast, the narrative of Barack Obama has seemed to converge harmonically with the shifting demographics and surging discontent of the electorate. It may well be, as his detractors suggest, that Obama is among the least-experienced presidential nominees in our nation's history. But to voters starved for change, the 47-year-old biracial first-term Democratic senator clearly qualifies. That, in any event, is his story, and he has stuck to it.
John McCain's biography has been the stuff of legend for nearly a decade. And yet Schmidt and his fellow strategists have had difficulty explaining how America will be better off for electing (as opposed to simply admiring) a stubborn patriot. In seeking to do so, the McCain campaign has changed its narrative over and over. Sometimes with McCain's initial resistance but always with his eventual approval, Schmidt has proffered a candidate who is variously a fighter, a conciliator, an experienced leader and a shake-'em-up rebel. ''The trick is that all of these are McCain,'' Matt McDonald, a senior adviser, told me. But in constantly alternating among story lines in order to respond to changing events and to gain traction with voters, the ''true character'' of a once-crisply-defined political figure has become increasingly murky.
Schmidt evidently saw the financial crisis as a ''true character'' moment that would advance his candidate's narrative. But the story line did not go as scripted. ''This has to be solved by Monday,'' Schmidt told reporters that Wednesday afternoon in late September, just after McCain concluded his lengthy meeting with his advisers and subsequently announced his decision to suspend his campaign and go to Washington. Belying a crisis situation, however, McCain didn't leave New York immediately. He spent Thursday morning at an event for the Clinton Global Initiative, the nonprofit foundation run by former President Bill Clinton. As McCain headed for Washington later that morning, he was sufficiently concerned about the situation that Schmidt felt compelled to reassure him. ''Remember what President Clinton told you,'' Schmidt said, referring to advice Clinton had dispensed that morning: ''If you do the right thing, it might be painful for a few days. But in the long run it will work out in your favor.''
After arriving on Capitol Hill nearly 24 hours after his announcement, McCain huddled with three of his closest political allies: fellow senators Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman and Jon Kyl. Later that day at a White House meeting convened by Bush and also attended by Congressional leaders of both parties as well as both candidates, McCain said almost nothing, even when House Republicans declared that they were not yet willing to sign onto the administration's $700 billion proposal. Despite the fact that the deal maker had produced no deal, McCain announced the next day that his campaign would resume -- ''optimistic that there has been significant progress towards a bipartisan agreement,'' as a campaign statement put it -- and traveled to Mississippi that Friday afternoon to debate Obama. On Sunday morning, Schmidt went on ''Meet the Press'' to insist that his boss's foray had been crucial in bringing ''all of the parties to the table,'' with the result that ''there appears to be a framework completed.'' The next day -- Monday, Sept. 29, the day by which Schmidt had earlier warned the crisis ''has to be solved'' -- the House Republicans played the key role in defeating the bailout legislation.
Scene by scene, McCain failed to deliver the performance that had been promised. Of course, this was no mere movie. America was in crisis. Perhaps with the Bush theory in mind, Steve Schmidt had advised McCain to ''go in all the way'' on the financial crisis so as to reveal his candidate's true character. But given a chance to show what kind of president he might be, McCain came off more like a stymied bystander than a leader who could make a difference. Judging by the polls, the McCain campaign has yet to recover.
In reporting on the campaign's vicissitudes, I spoke with a half-dozen of McCain's senior-most advisers -- most of them more than once and some of them repeatedly -- over a period that began in early August. I spoke as well to several other midlevel advisers and to a number of former senior aides. Virtually all of these individuals had spoken with me for previous articles concerning McCain. Their insights and recollections enabled me to piece together conversations and events. My repeated requests to interview McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, were denied, and with only a couple of exceptions those who spoke to me did so with the stipulation that most or all of their comments not be attributed to them.
Despite their leeriness of being quoted, McCain's senior advisers remained palpably confident of victory -- at least until very recently. By October, the succession of backfiring narratives would compel some to reappraise not only McCain's chances but also the decisions made by Schmidt, who only a short time ago was hailed as the savior who brought discipline and unrepentant toughness to a listing campaign. ''For better or for worse, our campaign has been fought from tactic to tactic,'' one senior adviser glumly acknowledged to me in early October, just after Schmidt received authorization from McCain to unleash a new wave of ads attacking Obama's character. ''So this is the new tactic.''
NARRATIVE 1:
The Heroic Fighter vs. the Quitters
Steve Schmidt is 38, bald and brawny, with a nasal, deadpan voice and a relentless stare. He is also a devoted husband and father of two young children, introspective and boyishly vulnerable for someone of such imposing stature. On mornings, he can be seen standing outside the McCain campaign headquarters in Arlington, Va., smoking a cigarette while he scowls at his BlackBerry. After campaign events in the evening, he often hangs out at a hotel bar drinking beer with fellow campaign workers and members of the media. Whenever possible, he flies back to California to spend the weekend with his family. He is not a hothead and tends to hesitate for several beats before offering a well-tailored, often wry answer to a question. Though commonly described in the press as a Karl Rove protege, Schmidt was a Republican operative for a dozen years before he ever worked for Rove. When Bush returned to the White House, Schmidt was not among those from the 2004 re-election effort who were rewarded with plum jobs, despite his well-regarded work overseeing the campaign's rapid-response unit. After spending the first half of 2005 heading up the press office for Vice President Dick Cheney, Schmidt was sent to Baghdad to improve the administration's anemic communications strategy in Iraq. He also orchestrated the Senate confirmation hearings of the Supreme Court nominees John Roberts and Samuel Alito and their presentation to the outside world. Along the way, Schmidt never really developed the personal relationship with Bush that would have enabled him to advance in accordance with his talents. In early 2006, when an opportunity came to jump ship, Schmidt took it, departing the Bush administration to spearhead the successful re-election campaign of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in California. He still lives outside Sacramento, far from Washington. Though Schmidt often brandishes his geographical remove from the Beltway and his lack of interest in another White House job as proof of his equanimity, you get the sense that a McCain victory would bring him no small measure of personal vindication.
For a man who seems to relish Rove-like alley fighting, Schmidt is not an ideologue and claims he harbors no ambition of delivering the Republican Party to a state of lasting supremacy. He also displays great nuance in office politics. Until Schmidt consolidated his power this summer, McCain, it's fair to say, was not a big believer in organization. The important decisions were all made by him, with various confidants of ambiguous portfolio orbiting around him and often colliding with one another (and often staying in the picture well after their departure -- as was the case of Mike Murphy, a strategist from the 2000 campaign, who remained close enough to McCain that rumors of his return persisted until fairly recently).
A year earlier, in the summer of 2007, the McCain campaign all but collapsed under the weight of financial woes, vicious infighting and the conservative base's fury over his moderate stance on immigration. Among the senior staff members who walked out were McCain's longtime political guru John Weaver and several alumni of the well-oiled 2004 Bush campaign. Schmidt -- who until that point was not particularly influential -- decided to stick around, even without pay. He began to earn McCain's trust while also befriending the senator's two closest advisers, who happened not to care for each other.
One was Rick Davis, a charming Southern lobbyist and Republican jack-of-all-trades who had assumed control of the campaign's day-to-day operations. McCain and Davis have for years called each other a half-dozen times a day, but Davis has also cultivated a close bond with Cindy McCain, who once when talking to Katie Couric referred to Davis as ''our best friend.'' The other adviser was 53-year-old Mark Salter, a brilliant, pugnacious writer who has composed all of McCain's books and major speeches and in a more encompassing sense is McCain's definer, looking after what Salter himself calls the ''metanarrative'' of McCain's transformation from a reckless flyboy and P.O.W. to a courageous patriot. The complicated interdependence between McCain and Salter could be glimpsed during the candidate's acceptance speech at the Republican convention. Salter sat in the front row, dead center, no more than 15 feet from McCain. I watched as Salter gazed intently at McCain throughout, making subtle motions with his hands and face, and when McCain came to the pivotal line in his P.O.W. tale -- ''I was no longer my own man; I was my country's'' -- its author leapt to his feet and applauded.
But in the summer of 2007, Salter and McCain's relationship frayed when Salter and others tried to marginalize Davis, and McCain resisted. While Salter brooded and Davis spent his hours at headquarters begging donors and volunteers not to jump ship, Schmidt stepped into the void. There was still more than a year until the election, he figured. The problem was that McCain was spending his time talking about Iraq, in distinctly funereal tones. ''It's long and it's hard and it's tough,'' the senator told one audience in Gilford, N.H., that summer. ''I could recommend books on it that'll make you cry. . . . I know how frustrated you are. I know the sorrow you experience.'' Virtually all of his senior staff members, Schmidt and Davis among them, had been begging McCain to focus on the economy, health care and tax policy. Anything, really, except Bush's war. But according to several senior advisers, the candidate felt a deep sense of responsibility to cheerlead for the troop surge, which he believed would turn the tide in Iraq. It began to dawn on Schmidt that McCain's stubborn patronage of an unpopular war wasn't impeding the campaign's quest for narrative -- it was the narrative.
''Sir, is the surge working?'' he said he asked McCain one day. ''Are we winning?''
''Yes,'' McCain said.
''That's not what you're saying on the trail.''
''It is!''
''No, sir. It's not. You're saying things are getting better. Do you believe we're actually winning now?''
McCain indicated that he did.
''Well, going forward, that's what you should say,'' Schmidt replied. He encouraged McCain to denounce the Democrats for advocating a withdrawal of troops -- a kind of surrender in the face of victory. Thus did Schmidt initiate the No Surrender Tour late in the summer of 2007, a push through the early primary states that saw John McCain surrounded by war veterans while he lashed out at weak-kneed war critics. Employing considerable artistic license, Schmidt linked McCain's stance on Iraq with his bravery during his years in captivity in Vietnam, something the candidate had shied away from. Indeed, as McCain told me two years ago, he decided to write his Vietnam memoir, ''Faith of My Fathers,'' with Salter largely to put the subject to rest once and for all: ''I just got bored telling the same old story over and over again. . . . After the 3,000th time, you think, Hey, I'd rather talk about something else.''
As one adviser told me two months ago: ''It's against his better nature to be self-aggrandizing. But everybody was telling him, 'This is about the election, the election's about your character and this stuff goes along with your narrative.' '' Schmidt warned McCain that declining to discuss personal matters like his P.O.W. days and his religious faith would very likely have ramifications at the polls. The candidate acquiesced. In speeches, debates and advertising, the McCain campaign made liberal use of his war-hero metanarrative. On March 28, 2008, with the Republican nomination secured, McCain's first national ad was shown. It concluded with grainy black-and-white footage of the wounded P.O.W. reciting his serial number to his captors, followed by a spoken line that Schmidt loved and adamantly defended, even when others inside the campaign argued that it made no sense: ''John McCain. The American president Americans have been waiting for.'' Thereafter, McCain seldom wasted an opportunity to extol his own patriotism.
NARRATIVE 2:
Country-First Deal Maker vs. Nonpartisan Pretender
Schmidt spent this spring futilely trying to broaden the story line. Americans, he knew, did not share McCain's devotion to the surge in Iraq. Their concerns lay at home. Accordingly, Schmidt toured McCain through Annapolis, Alexandria and Jacksonville, the towns of his beginnings (an idea conceived by Karl Rove, according to a senior adviser), and then made an empathy swing through poor regions of the country. Both came off as contrivances. McCain's speech in New Orleans on June 3 of this year -- the night Obama effectively clinched the nomination -- was delivered against a sickly green backdrop, a poorly executed version of an idea Schmidt borrowed from the eco-friendly 2006 Schwarzenegger campaign. Contrasted with Obama's ringing articulation of change in St. Paul that very night, McCain's speech (with its ''That's not change we can believe in'' refrain) struck even some Republicans as churlish. McCain was so frustrated by his own, at times, stumbling performance that he vowed never to deliver another teleprompter speech again.
The campaign was in the throes of an identity crisis by June 24, when a number of senior strategists gathered at 9:30 a.m. in a conference room of McCain's campaign headquarters in Arlington. As one participant said later, the meeting was convened ''because we still couldn't answer the question, 'Why elect John McCain?' '' Considering that the election was less than five months away, this was not a good sign.
''We had a narrative problem,'' Matt McDonald recalls. ''Obama had a story line: 'Bush is the problem. I'm not going to be Bush, and McCain will be.' Our story line, I argued, had to be that it's not about Bush -- it's Congress, it's Washington. And Obama would be more about partisanship, while John McCain would buck the party line and bring people together.''
The others could see McDonald's line of reasoning -- and above all, the need to separate McCain from Bush. But the message seemed antiseptic, impersonal. That was when the keeper of McCain's biography, Mark Salter, took the floor. There's a reason McCain bucks his party, McDonald remembers Salter arguing. It's because he puts his country ahead of party. Then the speechwriter, who is not known for his dispassion, began to yell: ''We're talking about someone who was willing to die before losing his honor! He would die!''
Salter stalked out of the meeting to have a cigarette and didn't return. But he had said enough. The metanarrative of Heroic Fighter was now joined with one that evoked postpartisan statesmanship. The new narrative needed a label. The first version was ''A Love for America.'' Then ''America First.'' And finally, the one that stuck: ''Country First.''
The McCain campaign maintained that in contrast to Obama, their candidate had taken on his own party while working with Democrats on such issues as immigration and campaign-finance reform. ''Obama pays no price from his party -- never has,'' Salter told me. ''My guy has made a career out of it. So, how can you get people to believe that if you can't get the press to make an honest assessment of it? You tell a story. 'When it came down to a choice between my very life and my country, I chose my country.' That's why the story's important. Just as Obama's story is important to him. I don't gainsay it. You know, tell your story!''
Salter and Schmidt had hoped that the mainstream press would warm to this new narrative. But the matter of which candidate had shown more acts of bipartisan daring failed to become Topic A. The two advisers -- each of whom had friendly relations with the media but had grown increasingly convinced that Obama was getting a free ride -- took this as further proof that today's reporters were primarily young, snarky, blog-obsessed and liberal. To Schmidt's and Salter's minds, John McCain had always been honest and straightforward with the press, and the press in turn was not acting in good faith toward their candidate. As such it was now undeserving of McCain's unfettered ''straight talk.''
But this rationale for shutting out the press has its limitations. For one, when McCain's Straight Talk Express first rolled out in 1999, the notion was not conceived simply out of the sense that being transparent with the media -- and by extension the voters -- was just the right thing to do. Instead, it was implemented because the 2000 campaign lacked the money to compete with Bush's ad campaign. As John Weaver, McCain's former strategist told me, ''We needed the coverage.'' For another, McCain happened to like passing the time with reporters, whom he would sometimes refer to as his ''base.'' In addition, talking openly with the press had some important advantages early on for McCain. According to some of his aides, McCain's victory in the make-or-break New Hampshire primary in January of this year might not have transpired had he not spent time talking to and overtly courting every editorial board in the state for their endorsements.
Regardless, this summer Schmidt sought to convince his voluble candidate that the press was no longer his friend. By July, a curtain was literally drawn to separate McCain from the reporters traveling on his plane. He no longer mingled with them, and press conferences were drastically curtailed. The Bushian concept of message discipline -- the droning repetition of a single talking point -- that had been so gleefully mocked by McCain's lieutenants in 2000 now governed the Straight Talk Express.
NARRATIVE 3:
Leader vs. Celebrity
''Gentlemen, let me put a few things on the table for observation and discussion,'' Steve Schmidt said to his fellow strategists while sitting in a conference room in the Phoenix Ritz-Carlton. ''Would anyone here disagree with the premise that we are not winning this campaign?''
No one disagreed. It was Sunday, July 27, and Obama had just concluded an eight-day swing through the Middle East and Europe that received practically round-the-clock media coverage. ''Would anyone disagree with the premise,'' Schmidt went on, ''that Mr. Obama has scored the most successful week in this entire campaign? I mean, they treated him like he was a head of state! So tell me, gentlemen: how do we turn this negative into a positive?''
''It's third and nine,'' Bill McInturff, a pollster, observed. ''Time to start throwing the ball down field.''
Eventually, it was Schmidt who blurted out the epiphany concerning Obama. ''Face it, gentlemen,'' he said. ''He's being treated like a celebrity.''
The others grasped the concept -- a celebrity like J-Lo! or Britney! -- and exultation overtook the room.
John and Cindy McCain showed up at the end of the daylong meeting, and Schmidt took the opportunity to run the celebrity concept by them. The McCains liked it -- though the candidate was otherwise cranky: he was tired of being overscheduled and always late and demanded that this change immediately. (It did, according to a senior adviser: ''After that meeting, you will rarely see McCain do an event before 9 in the morning.'')
Three days later, the new ad went up. ''He's the biggest celebrity in the world,'' a female voice intoned, as images of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton flashed on the screen. ''But: is he ready to lead?'' In a conference call with reporters that morning, Schmidt framed the issue with a binary choice straight out of the 2004 playbook: ''Do the American people want to elect the biggest celebrity or an American hero?''
The idea, McDonald told me, was ''to exalt Obama's eloquence. Push it up to a place where there's no oxygen. Make it an Icarus thing.'' The notion of Obama's apparent presumptuousness seemed to grow on viewers. And when Russia invaded the fledgling republic of Georgia on Aug. 8, McCain's strategists saw an opportunity for another stark binary choice -- albeit one that abruptly shifted the story line back to the international arena: combat-ready leader versus unready celebrity.
The execution of the new narrative left something to be desired, however. Three days after the invasion, McCain made a statement to reporters in Erie, Pa., intended to showcase his mastery of the Russia-Georgia situation. Instead, the candidate mispronounced the name of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, three times. The next day, I watched as McCain appeared in York, Pa., to engage in one of his free-form town-hall meetings. But he began the event by standing next to a lectern and reciting Russia-Georgia talking points from prepared notes. Though no doubt this was intended to avoid his previous flubs, McCain's scripted performance seemed more like that of a foreign-policy novice than a sure-handed sage.
When I mentioned this episode later to one of McCain's advisers, he winced and said: ''This is part of the Schmidt gotta-have-absolute-message-discipline thing. That's one of the disagreements. And John can be really resistant. He's always worried about being put in a box. He's got a very sensitive nerve about it. A lot of times I would hear him say: 'Don't control me. This is my campaign.' But I think Steve has convinced him that we've got to do this if we're going to win.''
NARRATIVE 4:
Team of Mavericks vs. Old-Style Washington
On Sunday, Aug. 24, Schmidt and a few other senior advisers again convened for a general strategy meeting at the Phoenix Ritz-Carlton. McInturff, the pollster, brought somewhat-reassuring new numbers. The Celebrity motif had taken its toll on Obama. It was no longer third and nine, the pollster said -- meaning, among other things, that McCain might well be advised to go with a safe pick as his running mate.
Then for a half-hour or so, the group reviewed names that had been bandied about in the past: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (of Minnesota) and Gov. Charlie Crist (of Florida); the former governors Tom Ridge (Pennsylvania) and Mitt Romney (Massachusetts); Senator Joe Lieberman (Connecticut); and Mayor Michael Bloomberg (New York). From a branding standpoint, they wondered, what message would each of these candidates send about John McCain? McInturff's polling data suggested that none of these candidates brought significantly more to the ticket than any other.
''What about Sarah Palin?'' Schmidt asked.
After a moment of silence, Fred Davis, McCain's creative director (and not related to Rick), said, ''I did the ads for her gubernatorial campaign.'' But Davis had never once spoken with Palin, the governor of Alaska. Since the Republican Governors Association had paid for his work, Davis was prohibited by campaign laws from having any contact with the candidate. All Davis knew was that the R.G.A. folks had viewed Palin as a talent to keep an eye on. ''She'd certainly be a maverick pick,'' he concluded.
The meeting carried on without Schmidt or Rick Davis uttering an opinion about Palin. Few in the room were aware that the two had been speaking to each other about Palin for some time now. Davis was with McCain when the two met Palin for the first time, at a reception at the National Governors Association winter meeting in February, in the J. W. Marriott Hotel in Washington. It had not escaped McCain's attention that Palin had blasted through the oleaginous Alaska network dominated by Frank Murkowski and Ted Stevens, much in the same manner that McCain saw himself doing when he was a young congressman. Newt Gingrich and others had spoken of Palin as a rising star. Davis saw something else in Palin -- namely, a way to re-establish the maverick persona McCain had lost while wedding himself to Bush's war. A female running mate might also pick off some disaffected Hillary Clinton voters.
After that first brief meeting, Davis remained in discreet but frequent contact with Palin and her staff -- gathering tapes of speeches and interviews, as he was doing with all potential vice-presidential candidates. One tape in particular struck Davis as arresting: an interview with Palin and Gov. Janet Napolitano, the Arizona Democrat, on ''The Charlie Rose Show'' that was shown in October 2007. Reviewing the tape, it didn't concern Davis that Palin seemed out of her depth on health-care issues or that, when asked to name her favorite candidate among the Republican field, she said, ''I'm undecided.'' What he liked was how she stuck to her pet issues -- energy independence and ethics reform -- and thereby refused to let Rose manage the interview. This was the case throughout all of the Palin footage. Consistency. Confidence. And . . . well, look at her. A friend had said to Davis: ''The way you pick a vice president is, you get a frame of Time magazine, and you put the pictures of the people in that frame. You look at who fits that frame best -- that's your V. P.''
Schmidt, to whom Davis quietly supplied the Palin footage, agreed. Neither man apparently saw her lack of familiarity with major national or international issues as a serious liability. Instead, well before McCain made his selection, his chief strategist and his campaign manager both concluded that Sarah Palin would be the most dynamic pick. Despite McInturff's encouraging new numbers, it remained their conviction that in this ominous election cycle, a Republican presidential candidate could not afford to play it safe. Picking Palin would upend the chessboard; it was a maverick type of move. McCain, the former Navy pilot, loved that sort of thing. Then again, he also loved familiarity -- the swashbuckling camaraderie with his longtime staff members, the P.O.W. band of brothers who frequently rode the bus and popped up at his campaign events, the Sedona ranch where he unwound and grilled wagonloads of meat. By contrast, McCain had barely met Palin.
That evening of Aug. 24, Schmidt and Davis, after leaving the Ritz-Carlton meeting, showed up at McCain's condominium in Phoenix. They informed McCain that in their view, Palin would be the best pick. ''You never know where his head is,'' Davis told me three weeks later. ''He doesn't betray a lot. He's a great poker player. But he picked up the phone.'' Reached at the Alaska State Fair, Palin listened as McCain for the first time discussed the possibility of selecting her as his running mate.
These machinations remained thoroughly sub rosa. McCain's close friend, Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator, continued to argue passionately for Lieberman -- ''a McCain-Plus ticket,'' he would say. McCain, referring to Romney, at one point said that ''Mitt's been awfully helpful with fund-raising,'' according to a senior aide who was present during the discussion. ''And he'd bring us Michigan.'' Pawlenty's name frequently came up in internal discussions, says that aide. But as for Palin, says another: ''She just wasn't one of the names. I mean, we heard more about Bloomberg.''
On Tuesday, Aug. 26, Schmidt picked up the phone around noon and called Jon Berrier, an old friend and partner at Schmidt's consulting business in Northern California. Berrier was asked to get on a plane to Anchorage, check into a hotel, await further details and tell no one. The next morning, Davis White, who oversaw all of McCain's travel logistics, met Berrier for breakfast in Anchorage. White informed Berrier that they would meet Palin at a private airstrip that afternoon, and that White would fly with Palin to Arizona to meet with Schmidt and Salter that evening -- and then, the following morning, with McCain. If McCain offered the vice-president slot to Palin, White told Berrier, then Berrier would surreptitiously fly Palin's husband, Todd, and their children to Ohio on Thursday evening, and a public announcement would be made there the next morning. The final decision wasn't to be made until Thursday morning, but they should proceed as if it was going to happen.
Palin and her assistant, Kris Perry, met Schmidt and Salter on Wednesday evening in Flagstaff, at the house of Bob Delgado, the chief executive of Hensley & Company, Cindy McCain's beer distributorship. McCain's speechwriter had never spoken with Palin before. A senior adviser said: ''Salter was always a big Pawlenty fan -- son of a truck driver, salt of the earth, genuine guy. Just thought he was a good, honest addition to the McCain brand as opposed to, say, Romney.'' That so much momentum had been building in Palin's favor was likely a surprise to Salter, says one of the few individuals privy to the vice-presidential selection process: ''Mark was new to it, and so it was important to us to make sure that he was in on the situation that was brewing.''
For two hours, Salter and Schmidt asked Palin questions based on the vetting material. Salter says they discussed her daughter's pregnancy and the pending state investigation regarding her role in the controversy surrounding the state trooper who had been married to her sister. The two advisers warned her that nothing was likely to stay secret during the campaign. Salter says that he was impressed. ''The sense you immediately get is how tough-minded and self-assured she is,'' he recalled three weeks after meeting her. ''She makes that impression in like 30 seconds.''
Now all three of McCain's closest advisers were on board. The next morning was Thursday, Aug. 28. Salter and Schmidt drove Palin to McCain's ranch. According to Salter, the senator took the governor down to a place where he usually had his coffee, beside a creek and a sycamore tree, where a rare breed of hawk seasonally nested. They spoke for more than an hour. Then the two of them walked about 40 yards to the deck of the cabin where the McCains slept. Cindy joined them there for about 15 minutes, after which the McCains excused themselves and went for a brief stroll to discuss the matter. When they returned, McCain asked for some time with Schmidt and Salter. ''And we did our pros and cons on all of them,'' Salter told me. ''He just listened. Asked a couple of questions. Then said, 'I'm going to offer it to her.' ''
Late that same evening, a McCain spokeswoman, Nicolle Wallace, and the deputy speechwriter, Matthew Scully, were ferried to the Manchester Inn in Middletown, Ohio. Schmidt instructed them to turn off their cellphones and BlackBerrys. Then he opened the door of Room 508 and introduced them to McCain's running mate. The two aides were surprised. Palin and Scully spoke for about 45 minutes, and the governor handed him a copy of the speech she had intended to give as one of the Republican convention's many guest speakers. With this scant information in hand, Scully began his all-night drafting of Palin's first speech to a national audience.
During the evening, Scully also traded e-mail messages with Matt McDonald, who had just gotten the news from Schmidt that the vice-presidential pick was someone who did not quite fit the campaign's current emphasis on ''readiness.'' The story line, Schmidt informed McDonald, was now Change. The two of them, along with Rick Davis, talked through this rather jolting narrative shift. What they decided upon was workable, if inelegant. First, define the problem as Washington, not Bush. Second, posit both McCain and Palin as experienced reformers. And third, define Obama and his 65-year-old running mate, Senator Joe Biden, as a ticket with no real record of change. McDonald in turn transmitted this formulation to Scully and Salter, who was busily drafting McCain's announcement speech.
The spunky hockey mom that America beheld the next morning instantly hijacked Obama's narrative of newness. (''Change is coming!'' McCain hollered, almost seeming startled himself.) And five days later, in the hours after Palin's stunningly self-assured acceptance speech at the G.O.P. convention, I watched as the Republicans in the bar of the Minneapolis Hilton rejoiced as Republicans had not rejoiced since Inauguration Night three and a half long years ago. Jubilant choruses of ''She knocked it out of the park'' and ''One of the greatest speeches ever'' were heard throughout the room, and some people gave, yes, Obama-style fist bumps. When the tall, unassuming figure of Palin's speechwriter, Matthew Scully, shuffled into the bar, he was treated to the first standing ovation of his life. Nicolle Wallace confessed to another staff member that she had cried throughout Palin's speech. Allowing his feelings to burst out of his composed eggshell of a face, Schmidt bellowed to someone, ''Game on!''
Just as quickly, he resumed his natural state of arch contemplativeness. ''Arguably, at this stage?'' he observed. ''She's a bigger celebrity than Obama.''
A commotion erupted, followed by outright hysteria. It was 11:45, and the Palins had entered the bar. Dozens of staff members and delegates flocked to the governor, cellphone cameras outstretched. Todd and Sarah Palin posed, shook hands and extended their gracious appreciation for 15 minutes. Then, no doubt realizing that they would never be able to enjoy a drink in peace, they withdrew for the evening, again to raucous applause.
While all of this was going on, an elegant middle-aged woman sat alone at the far end of the bar. She wore beige slacks and a red sweater, and she picked at a salad while talking incessantly on her cellphone. But for the McCain/Palin button affixed to her collar and the brief moment that Tucker Eskew, Palin's new counselor, spoke into her ear, she seemed acutely disconnected from the jubilation swelling around her.
In fact, the woman was here for a reason. Her name was Priscilla Shanks, a New York-based stage and screen actress of middling success who had found a lucrative second career as a voice coach. Shanks's work with Sarah Palin was as evident as it was unseen. Gone, by the evening of her convention speech, was the squeaky register of Palin's exclamations. Gone (at least for the moment) was the Bushian pronunciation of ''nuclear'' as ''nook-you-ler.'' Present for the first time was a leisurely, even playful cadence that signaled Sarah Palin's inevitability on this grand stage.
In the ensuing two and a half weeks (which surely felt longer to the Obama campaign), the Palin Effect was manifest and profound. McCain seemed, if not suddenly younger -- after all, the woman standing to his side was nearly the same age as his daughter, Sidney -- then freshly boisterous as he crowed, ''Change is coming, my friends!'' Meanwhile, Palin's gushing references to McCain as ''the one great man in this race'' and ''exactly the kind of man I want as commander in chief'' seemed to confer not only valor but virility on a 72-year-old politician who only weeks ago barely registered with the party faithful.
But just as you could make too much of Shanks's quiet coaching of Palin, you could also make too little of it. The new narrative -- the Team of Mavericks coming to lay waste the Beltway power alleys -- now depended on a fairly inexperienced Alaska politician. The following night, after McCain's speech brought the convention to a close, one of the campaign's senior advisers stayed up late at the Hilton bar savoring the triumphant narrative arc. I asked him a rather basic question: ''Leaving aside her actual experience, do you know how informed Governor Palin is about the issues of the day?''
The senior adviser thought for a moment. Then he looked up from his beer. ''No,'' he said quietly. ''I don't know.''
NARRATIVE 5:
John McCain vs. John McCain
In the period before the campaign's decision earlier this month to wage an all-out assault on Obama's character as the next narrative tactic, McCain was signaling to aides that it was important to run an honorable campaign. People are hurting now, McCain said to his convention planners as Hurricane Gustav whirled toward the Gulf Coast. It's a shame we have to have a convention at all. But because we have to do this, tone it down. No balloons, nothing over the top. When his media team suggested running ads that highlighted Obama's connection with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, McCain reminded them that he pledged months earlier not to exploit the matter, and John McCain was not about to go back on his word. In such moments, the man who renounced negative ads during the 2000 campaign because he wanted (as he told his aghast advisers back then) ''to run a campaign my daughter can be proud of'' has been thoroughly recognizable.
But that John McCain had lost. Of the noble but perhaps naive decision in 2000 to unilaterally take down his attack ads, Rick Davis would vow: ''That's not gonna happen a second time. I mean, the old dog can learn a few new tricks.'' And yet on this landscape of new tricks -- calling your opponent a liar; allowing your running mate to imply that the opponent might prefer terrorists over Americans -- McCain sometimes seemed to be running against not only Barack Obama but an earlier version of himself.
The flipside to John McCain's metanarrative of personal valor has always been palpable self-righteousness. In this campaign, his sense of integrity has been doubly offended. First, an adviser said, ''He just really thinks the media is completely in the tank for Obama and doesn't feel like he's getting a fair shake at all.'' And second, another said, ''I don't think John likes people who try to do jobs they're not qualified for'' -- referring, in this case, to Barack Obama.
In June, McCain formally proposed that he and his Democratic opponent campaign together across America in a series of town-hall-style meetings. He had in fact suggested the same thing to Joe Biden three years earlier, Biden told me back then: ''He said: 'Let's make a deal if we end up being the nominees. Let's commit to do what Goldwater and Kennedy committed to do before Kennedy was shot.' We agreed that we would campaign together, same plane, get off in the same city and go to 30 states or whatever together.'' According to Biden, he and McCain sealed their agreement with a handshake. When McCain extended the same offer to Obama in 2008, the Democrat said that he found the notion ''appealing'' but then did little to make it happen. Since that time, McCain has repeatedly told aides what he has also said in public -- that had Obama truly showed a determination to have a series of joint appearances, the campaign would not have degenerated to its current sorry state.
But to McCain, that Obama failed to do so carries a deeper significance. Authenticity means everything to a man like McCain who, says Salter, ''has an affinity for heroes, for men of honor.'' Conversely, he reserves special contempt for those he regards as arrogant phonies. A year after Barack Obama was sworn into the Senate, Salter recalls McCain saying, ''He's got a future, I'll reach out to him'' -- as McCain had to Russ Feingold and John Edwards, and as the liberal Arizona congressman Mo Udall had reached out to McCain as a freshman. McCain invited Obama to attend a bipartisan meeting on ethics reform. Obama gratefully accepted --but then wrote McCain a letter urging him to instead follow a legislative path recommended by Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate. Feeling double-crossed, McCain ordered Salter to ''send him a letter, brush him back a little.'' Since that experience, says a Republican who has known McCain for a long time, ''there was certainly disdain and dislike of Obama.''
A senior adviser to McCain said: ''The town halls, the ethics bill, immigration reform -- all are examples. I think McCain finds it galling that Obama gets credit for his impressive talk about bipartisanship without ever having to bear the risk that is a part of that. It is so much harder to walk the walk in the Senate than to talk the talk.'' By extension, then, if the McCain campaign's conduct would appear to be at odds with the man's ''true character,'' it is only because the combination of a dishonorable opponent and a biased media has forced his hand. Or so goes the rationale for what by this month was an increasingly ugly campaign.
The worry among his aides had long been that McCain would let his indignation show. Going into the debates, an adviser expressed that very concern to me: ''If he keeps the debates on substance, he's very good. If it moves to the personal, then I think it's a disaster.'' Accordingly, Salter advised McCain before the first debate to maintain, one person privy to the sessions put it, ''a very generous patience with Obama -- in terms of, 'I'm sure if he understood. . . .' ''
''The object wasn't to appear condescending at all -- really, the opposite,'' an adviser said of Salter's tactic, which judging by the postdebate polls seemed to backfire. ''You put a bullet in a gun, figuring it'll get shot once. We had no idea it would be shot 10 times.''
NARRATIVE 6:
The Fighter (Again) vs. the Tax-and-Spend Liberal
Having fallen back on the most cliched of political story lines -- the devil you know versus the devil you don't -- only to see the negative tactic boomerang, Schmidt and his colleagues cobbled together one last narrative with less than a month to go. Kicking it off atan event in Virginia Beach on Oct. 13, McCain delivered a speech that did not mention ''maverick,'' or ''country first,'' or ''no surrender.'' The new motif was a hybrid of the previous five story lines, especially the first. Mentioning some version of the word ''fight'' 19 times, McCain was once again a warrior -- only more upbeat, more respectful of his opponent, more empathetic to suffering Americans and far more disapproving of the president. Rick Davis told me in September, ''The worst scenario for Obama is if he winds up running against the McCain of 2000,'' an authentic independent. But if this was the McCain that was now emerging, it was awfully late in the game, and he was encumbered by other versions of McCain gone awry.
In the final debate on Oct. 15 at Hofstra University on Long Island, McCain barely mentioned any version of the word ''fight'' but performed forcefully, perhaps even indignantly. By the time Steve Schmidt entered the postdebate spin room, his Obama counterpart, David Axelrod, had already been holding the floor for 20 minutes. Schmidt wore a pinstripe suit and his blue eyes carried a victor's gleam. Like every other McCain aide I encountered that night, he was convinced not only that the senator had turned in his best performance but that viewers would see him as the clear winner.
Schmidt vowed that McCain would spend the final days of the campaign focused on the economy -- and on Joe the plumber, the kind of entrepreneur (so McCain thought at the time) who would become an endangered species in an Obama administration. But that did not stop Schmidt from a lengthy monologue questioning Obama's character and assailing the opposition's ''vicious'' and ''racially divisive'' ads. At a certain point, when a member of the foreign media asked him if all of this spinning was likely to help McCain, Schmidt allowed himself a small grin and said: ''Well, look. One of the things I always wonder is why we come in here at the end. . . . It doesn't really matter, to be totally truthful with you. It's just part of the ritual. Like eating turkey on Thanksgiving.''
A few minutes later, his close friend and colleague Nicolle Wallace tugged Schmidt away from the scrum. They exited the spin room while Axelrod was still holding forth and flew back to Washington late that night.
McCain and a number of his advisers remained at their hotel on Long Island. At the hotel bar where many of them lingered into the late hours, I asked one of them whether the debate could make a difference at this late stage. The adviser maintained that regardless of the instant-poll numbers, Joe the plumber and other talking points would likely resonate in the weeks to come.
Then the adviser said with a helpless smile, ''Hopefully that'll change the narrative.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 28, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: October 26, 2008
CORRECTION: The cover article on Page 52 this weekend about Senator John McCain's campaign misspells the given name of Mr. McCain's fellow senator from Arizona and the surname of the governor of Florida, both McCain supporters. The other Arizona senator is Jon Kyl, not John, and the Florida governor is Charlie Crist, not Christ. The article also misstates the name of the Ohio city where some McCain campaign staff members first met Mr. McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. It is Middletown, not Middleton. And the article overstates the duties of Tucker Eskew, a member of Ms. Palin's team. He is officially her counselor, not her chief of staff, though campaign officials say that he performs many of the same duties.
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: For months, the McCain campaign has shifted from script to script. (pg.MM53)
Mark Salter, standing (without tie), and Steve Schmidt, center, with reporters at the New York Hilton after Senator John McCain announced he would suspend his campaign and fly to Washington to deal with the financial crisis. (pg.MM55)
Nicole Wallace, a McCain campaign spokeswoman, and the adviser Mark Salter outside the Renaissance Philadelphia airport hotel. In earlier campaigns, McCain referred to the press as his ''base.'' This time, an aide said, McCain felt the press was ''in the tank for Obama.'' (pg.MM56) (PHOTOGRAPHS BY LAUREN GREENFIELD/VII, FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
121 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
October 26, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
No Ordinary Woman
BYLINE: By JUDITH WARNER.
Judith Warner writes Domestic Disturbances, a column at nytimes.com.
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-EXTRA COLUMNIST; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 750 words
DATELINE: Washington
In 1977, Bella Abzug, the former congresswoman and outspoken feminist, said, ''Our struggle today is not to have a female Einstein get appointed as an assistant professor. It is for a woman schlemiel to get as quickly promoted as a male schlemiel.''
In other words: women will truly have arrived when the most mediocre among us will be able to do just as well as the most mediocre of men.
By this standard, the watershed event for women this year was not Hillary Clinton's near ascendancy to the top of the Democratic ticket, but Sarah Palin's nomination as the Republicans' No. 2.
For Clinton was a lifelong overachiever, a star in a generational vanguard who clearly took to heart the maxim that women ''must do twice as well as men to be thought half as good,'' and in so doing divorced herself from the world of the merely average. In that, she was not unlike Barack Obama -- taxed by his race to be twice as reassuring, twice as un-angry, twice as presidential as any white candidate.
Mediocrity, after all, is the privilege of those who have arrived.
Palin is a woman who has risen to national prominence without, apparently, even remotely being twice as good as her male competitors. On the contrary, her claim to fame lies in her repudiation of Clinton-type exceptionalism.
She speaks no better -- and no worse -- than many of her crowd-pleasing male peers, dropping her g's, banishing ''who'' in favor of ''that,'' issuing verbal blunders that linger just long enough to make their mark in the public mind before they're winked away in staged apologies.
She is a woman who is able to not only get by but also be quickly promoted on the kinds of attributes that were once the exclusive province of unremarkable white men: rapport, the right looks or connections, an easy sort of familiarity.
In the days leading up to Palin's pick as vice-presidential nominee, according to an article in The New York Times Magazine today, Rick Davis, who is John McCain's campaign manager, said a friend had told him how best to choose a running mate: ''You get a frame of Time magazine, and you put the pictures of the people in that frame. You look at who fits that frame best -- that's your V.P.''
Donny Deutsch, the ad executive turned talk show host, put it less elegantly on CNBC right after the Republican convention. ''Women want to be her, men want to mate with her,'' he said, describing Palin as a ''new creation that the feminist movement has not figured out in 40 years.''
And this was the crux of the Palin Phenomenon: she was a breakthrough woman who threatened no one.
The McCain crowd would have you believe that Palin is the perfect representation of the post-feminist woman, a candidate whose very existence marks the end of feminism -- of the old ''liberal feminist agenda,'' as McCain himself has put it -- and the start of a more global kind of triumph for the great mass of women.
Just as some young women in recent years have argued that appearing topless on ''Girls Gone Wild'' is an act of sexual liberation, putting an untested Alaskan governor on the road to the White House was spun as a sign of the arrival of real, hot-blooded women into the mainstream of power.
But the finer points of what it takes for real women to make progress in seizing power don't seem much to trouble Palin.
''Someone called me a 'redneck woman' once, and you know what I said back? 'Why, thank you,''' she told the country singer Gretchen Wilson at a recent Republican rally.
I guess Palin has never seen Wilson's ''Redneck Woman'' music video, which, in addition to images of an attractive Wilson driving a variety of fuel-inefficient vehicles, features a couple of stripper-styled babes dancing in cages, one of which is made of chains.
With her five children, successful political career, $1.2 million net worth and beauty pageant looks, Sarah Palin is really not an average woman, much less the worthy schlemiel envisioned by Abzug. She's actually, as Colin Powell carefully said, quite ''distinguished'' -- for her looks, her grace and charm, her ability to connect with an audience, her ambition and her drive. Those are admirable, even enviable qualities. But the American public, defecting from the McCain ticket in a slow bleed, is clearly not convinced that they amount to vice-presidential qualifications.
Seems like ''real America'' wants something more than a wife, mother or girlfriend in a female political leader.
Maybe we've come a long way after all.
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October 26, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
The Invisible Renter
BYLINE: By JOSH BARBANEL.
E-mail: bigdeal@nytimes.com
SECTION: Section RE; Column 0; Real Estate Desk; BIG DEAL; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 230 words
WHILE the presidential candidates are competing with each other over plans to bail out home mortgages across the country, pity the suffering renters of New York who are left out in the cold. The voluminous tax-cutting plans by Senators Barack Obama and John McCain do not address the fundamental disparity in the tax codes that allows homeowners huge deductions on mortgages but does not provide a similar benefit to renters, who make up around two-thirds of the city's households.
Senator Obama, for example, has promised to cut taxes on American families earning less than $250,000 a year. But the Obama-Biden tax calculator on his Web site, barackobama.com, shows that a family earning only $200,000, but without a mortgage, will get no tax cut under his plan, while a family with a $400,000 mortgage will get significant savings.
That is because the plan assumes a ''considerable amount of deductions'' in its tax estimates for the typical higher-income taxpayer, according to Jeffrey D. Gramlich, a professor of accounting at the University of Southern Maine, who prepared his own tax calculator to compare the candidates' plans. (His Web site is electiontaxes.com.) Renters would have fewer deductions, he said.
The average monthly rent for a lease signed in September on a two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan was $3,630, according to a market report from Citi Habitats.
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The Washington Post
October 26, 2008 Sunday
Every Edition
Death Knell Tolls For More Businesses
BYLINE: Erica Garman
SECTION: EXTRAS; Pg. LZ03
LENGTH: 1269 words
Living in LoCo is Erica Garman's blog devoted to all things interesting in Loudoun County. You can find it at http://www.loudounextra.com. This column of highlights from the blog appears in this space every Sunday.
The worldwide financial crisis is hitting close to home, as more Loudoun County businesses close or consider closing because of fewer customers.
Ron Richards, co-owner of an Image Sun Tanning Center in Ashburn, told me Thursday that his business and a number of other shops and restaurants in the Broadlands Marketplace are losing money every day and are in danger of shutting down unless the property owner, Van Metre, reduces rents and increases promotion of the strip mall.
"We don't want to step on any toes," Richards said. "But we're in danger of falling apart. They have to do something to work with us."
Richards said that he has applied for several small-business loans to make it through the slowdown but that banks are not lending.
Most of the businesses at Broadlands Marketplace signed 10-year contracts when the strip mall opened 3 1/2 years ago. Rents are rumored to range from $5,000 to $12,000 a month.
Lessees were promised that an office building would be built across from the mall, which would bring in business, Richards said. "Now, Van Metre tells us that project is not happening any time soon," he said.
Mitchell Baron, who owns a dental practice next to Image Sun, echoed Richards's concerns. "It's 4:45 p.m. on a Thursday," he told me on the phone, "and there are only three cars in the parking lot."
Ty Hausch with Van Metre Properties, who is a resident of Broadlands, said that the rents at Broadlands Marketplace are less than those at similar shopping centers in Brambleton and Lansdowne.
"Van Metre has already spent over $100,000 in advertising, direct mail, events and signage to market this shopping plaza, and we are still educating consumers about the businesses here," he said, adding that the office building project across the street is on hold because of the market conditions.
Hausch said he plans to meet with the tenants Wednesday to address their concerns and go over the shopping plaza's marketing plan.
So, are the business owners' concerns an indicator that more Loudoun shops and services will close for good?
Several weeks ago, the upscale Cafe Panache closed in Broadlands, and Kirkpatrick's Irish Pub in Ashburn Village just shut down. Last week, it was announced that the beer-brewing operation at Old Dominion Brewing Co. in Ashburn will be moving next year to Dover, Del. In a statement Tuesday, Coastal Brewing said that it will continue to brew Dominion beer at a consolidated center in Delaware and that the company is offering positions there for the 15 or so employees who work in Ashburn.
Political Signs Cause a Stir
This dispatch comes from Val Cavalheri, Living in LoCo's South Riding correspondent.
As the presidential candidates firm up their stands in the last days of the campaign, a South Riding couple are taking a stand by displaying political signs in their yard.
A few weeks ago, Krista and Chris Woods put up two John McCain signs on their front lawn. Krista Woods said they had seen political signs in yards during last year's election and thought nothing of it.
What followed surprised them both.
First was the letter they received Oct. 6 from their homeowners association telling them they had five days to take down the signs. South Riding Proprietary prohibits signs posted on lots and common areas but allows them to be displayed in the windows of residents' homes. Accepting the homeowners association's decision, the Woodses thought they would keep the signs up for the rest of the week, which was within the five-day period.
Two days later, they found another letter in their mailbox. "The signs are offensive," it said, "and must be taken down immediately." The letter also said the couple would be fined $35 per day per sign. It was signed "Neighborhood Watch Patroller."
South Riding has a Neighborhood Watch program, but officials with that committee and with the homeowners association denied approving the letter.
In an e-mail to Chris Woods, Elaine Stoner, the covenants director for South Riding, wrote that she understood the couple's "disbelief" about the note. But Stoner renewed her request that the Woodses comply with homeowners association rules by removing the signs, saying she was "receiving angry e-mails daily about them."
With only a few days left before the deadline to remove the signs, Chris Woods decided to illuminate them with a floodlight. That evening, Krista Woods said, she was outside when a "car barrels out, almost running us over. The window rolls down and a woman asks me if I knew that the signs were against South Riding rules. When I told her, 'Yes,' she yelled that I was a 'stupid idiot.' "
The Woodses, who are moving to Ashburn, did some research and concluded that they could extend the sign removal process to as much as 30 days by appealing the homeowners association's decision. So they decided not to take down the signs until after the election.
The dirty looks have continued, but the couple have received some support.
The Woodses' nanny, Motalane Tseptse, a huge fan of Barack Obama's, recently had a party at her employers' home. Knowing that many Obama supporters would be attending, Krista Woods asked whether Tseptse wanted her to take down the signs for the evening. "No," Tseptse said, "I'm proud of what you're doing."
The Woodses' next-door neighbors, Lisa and Chris Romano, agreed.
"It's their property. They should be able to put up signs," Lisa Romano said, adding, "We still love them, even though they are voting for the wrong candidate."
Going Green in Cascades
I thought I'd highlight a community that is striving to make its neck of the woods a "greener" place to live. I spoke a few days ago with Cascades general manager Martha Kaczmarsky, who shared with me some of the ways that residents are trying to reduce the community's carbon footprint.
A handful of residents, Kaczmarsky said, formed the Cascades Green Team in March. The group's goal is to educate the area's approximately 6,000 households about ways to save energy and protect the environment.
The Green Team meets at 7:30 p.m. on the third Thursday of every month at the Lowes Island Community Center to swap ideas and brainstorm. Through the homeowners association's newsletter, the group shares conservation tips with neighbors.
The Green Team was instrumental in getting residents the larger 46-gallon recycling bins with wheels and lids, which make hauling plastic, glass, aluminum and newspaper a little easier, Kaczmarsky said.
This month, the group organized a Green Expo, at which public and private vendors were invited to share information about their energy-efficient services and products. Some of the organizations in attendance were Home Depot, Loudoun Water, Con-Serve Industries, the Pedal Shop and Standard Solar.
In addition to exhibit booth information, the event featured giveaways of reusable shopping bags and compact fluorescent light bulbs. Attendees also got a chance to see firsthand the homeowners association-approved rain barrel, the community's new recycling bins and an in-home kitchen composter demonstration.
Next on the Green Team's agenda is a community-wide cleanup from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Nov. 2.
In the future, the group wants to help certify Cascades as a wildlife habitat through the National Wildlife Federation, and there are plans to organize community-wide activities in recognition of nationwide observances such as Bike-to-Work Day, Arbor Day and, of course, Earth Day.
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IMAGE; By Val Cavalheri; Krista Woods and her husband put political signs in their yard in South Riding, but their homeowners association said they must be removed.
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The Washington Post
October 26, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Mailed Ads Have Become Mostly Negative, Experts Say
BYLINE: Eli Saslow; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A13
LENGTH: 1053 words
They raise money through text messages and release videos directly to the Internet, but Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are relying on the old-fashioned U.S. Postal Service to deliver that staple of a presidential campaign's final weeks: the attack ad.
During the past month, the two presidential campaigns and their allies have bombarded voters in swing states with one contemptuous brochure after the next. A review of two-dozen direct-mail advertisements sent on behalf of Obama or McCain documents a below-the-radar battle in which the public message of the candidates becomes something more spiteful, more exaggerated and often more ominous.
Registered voters in Virginia received a flier from the state's Democratic Party warning that McCain "is hiding something he doesn't want us to know." Similarly, the Republican National Committee sent half a dozen swing states mail adorned with the slogan "Barack Obama: Not who you think he is."
McCain and Obama disparage the opposing side's attacks as unfair even as they approve more mailings of their own because direct mail has a 30-year history of swaying voters late in elections. By targeting brochures to specific kinds of voters in specific neighborhoods, politicians free themselves from the burdens of advertising to a mass audience on television, marketing and campaign experts said. Such ads can be more negative. They can be more alarmist.
"It's really a matter of 'the more emotional you are, the more rabid you are; the more extreme you are, the better it will work,' " said Richard Armstrong, a political-advertising expert who wrote a book about direct mail. "It's really just a matter of getting people's attention in their homes, where they live, and making sure it's something they'll remember. You want to get them angry."
Direct mail has influenced political campaigns ever since Richard Viguerie started compiling mailing lists by hand for conservative groups in the late 1960s, and its influence has grown steadily. In the last 20 years, experts said, direct-mail campaigning has become predominantly negative because candidates find it less damaging to their image to make attacks through the mail than on TV. Mail has become, Viguerie said, "kind of the country cousin of television or radio, your typically more glamorous forms of advertising."
So, in a campaign where few advertisements have qualified as glamorous -- a study by the Wisconsin Advertising Project showed McCain's ads are 74 percent negative, compared with 60 percent of Obama's -- direct mail has turned particularly ugly.
"The one advantage is you can get a really nasty piece of mail into the household, and it may well be passed around," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Letters are rare enough now that people actually look at them and pay more attention. A good message in the mail is going to stand out."
The Republican National Committee designed a series of mailers that essentially ignore McCain and his policies. Instead, each flier takes a standard attack against Obama -- that he's a vapid celebrity; that he's weak on terrorism -- and escalates it.
In New Mexico, voters opened their mailboxes to find a picture of Obama under the Sunset Boulevard sign in Hollywood with the message, "Obama put Hollywood above America." In Ohio, the RNC included an explicit-content-style warning in a bold, red font -- the story you are about to read is graphic and shocking, but true . . . -- before exaggerating Obama's stance on a type of late-term abortion its opponents call "partial-birth abortion."
The North Carolina Republican State Executive Committee sent a picture of Obama next to this quote: "I don't regret setting bombs. I feel we didn't do enough." Those words were not spoken by Obama but by Bill Ayers, the former 1960s radical whom Obama met years later in Chicago. The brochure left the quote unattributed.
In perhaps most controversial mailing, the RNC sent a flier to voters in Virginia and Missouri that depicts the nose of an airplane inched next to the glass exterior of a building. The brochure warns: "Terrorists don't care who they hurt," but "Barack Obama think terrorists just need a good talking to." When a reporter asked McCain about the ad last week, he said he "absolutely" supports it and thinks it revealed one of his opponent's shortcomings.
It probably surprised McCain when Obama decided to send the terrorist ad to his network of supporters Thursday morning. In a mass e-mail, Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, included a picture of the ad and requested that Democrats donate $25 to Obama's campaign to "push back." He included a link to a page on the Obama Web site that read:
"John McCain is trying to win this election by scaring voters with truly vile attacks . . . We cannot let McCain take the low road all the way to the White House."
But Democrats have traveled a similar path. According to Democratic mailings, McCain is a "disaster for healthcare" and an opponent of equal working rights for women. The Virginia State Democratic Party sent out one flier asserting that McCain's campaign is run by "seven Washington lobbyists."
The AFL-CIO, which supports Obama, has sent more than 57 million pieces of political mail during this campaign in an effort it refers to as the "largest and most targeted" in its history. The organization stuffs mailboxes in 21 battleground states -- it added West Virginia to the list last week -- after concentrating on 13 states for the 2004 election.
The ads are the result of a sophisticated program the AFL-CIO launched in 2003. Each ad is first sent to test group of 20,000 union members, and the AFL-CIO chooses the most effective ads and sends them to the union audience most likely to be influenced by them. Most of the ads have been negative. One refers to the "Bush/McCain financial crisis." Another outlines a three-point McCain economic plan that the candidate himself would probably take issue with: "Send jobs overseas. Put Wall Street first. Ignore Main Street."
"We can now be sure that what we're sending out is what will be most effective," said Mike Podhorzer, the deputy political director for AFL-CIO who oversees the mailing program. "If you use direct mail the right way, it can be four or fives times more influential than ever."
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October 26, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
Obama's Huge Haul Should End This Fight
BYLINE: Bradley A. Smith
SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B01
LENGTH: 1539 words
On Wednesday night, Sen. Barack Obama plans to air a half-hour campaign commercial in prime time on at least three television networks. Whether people click right past it or blame the campaign for a slightly delayed World Series Game 6 or interfering with an episode of "The New Adventures of Old Christine," the ads -- said to cost at least $1 million per network -- are an imposing show of the financial strength of the Obama campaign, which has raised more than $600 million for the primaries and general election combined.
The most extraordinary development in this year's election may well be the Obama fundraising juggernaut. First, the Illinois senator raised and spent record amounts in winning the Democratic nomination. Then, unlike Sen. John McCain, he decided not to take a taxpayer subsidy to run his general election campaign. Under the law, each major-party candidate had the option of accepting almost $85 million in tax dollars, with one big hitch: Except for a separate fund for legal and accounting expenses, that would be all he could spend. Before Obama, no major candidate had ever turned down this subsidy. Early in his campaign, he said he would take the subsidy and limit his spending if McCain would do the same. But as it became apparent during Obama's primary bid that he was raising money like no candidate had before, he decided to forgo public financing and its accompanying spending limit. He gambled that he could raise and spend more money from private sources. And has he ever.
That's fine by me. Obama's epic fundraising should put to rest all the shibboleths about campaign finance reform -- that it is needed to prevent corruption, that it equalizes the playing field, or that tax subsidies are needed to prevent corruption.
Don't expect those misguided efforts to change the system to end here, though. While Obama is benefiting from a fundraising advantage this year, in most elections since the 1960s, Republicans have held a spending advantage. Democrats always complained that that was unfair. Where are they now? Meanwhile, don't be surprised if some Republicans suddenly become champions of "reform" after this election.
In early September, basing my estimate on Obama's best primary fundraising months, I predicted that he would outspend McCain, but not by a substantial amount. I estimated that Obama could raise somewhere in the neighborhood of $140 million for the general election, which, after deducting fundraising expenses and accounting for the $15 million or so that McCain could raise for his legal and accounting fund, would give Obama a real financing edge of about $25 million -- not insignificant, but not huge, especially given that he would have to devote time to fundraising in states such as California and New York while McCain was campaigning in battleground states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. It seemed like a good bet at the time, but then I picked the Tigers to win the American League this year.
In September alone, Obama raised more than $150 million, giving him roughly $225 million for the general election -- before we add in any of his October fundraising. McCain is limited to his $84.1 million government subsidy. Like most observers, I was left slack-jawed by Obama's September cash haul. I served as chairman of the Federal Election Commission in 2004, when George W. Bush and John F. Kerry shattered every previous fundraising record to raise a combined total of $696 million -- something it looks like Obama will surpass all on his own just four years later. I've studied all the great fundraisers of the past, from William McKinley to Richard Nixon and George W. Bush. American politics has never seen anything remotely like this before.
As a Republican, I am not thrilled to watch a Democrat so vastly outspend my party's nominee. But why is Obama's record haul unsettling? Other than partisanship, is there anything wrong with Obama raising and spending record sums?
I don't think so, but that's not necessarily true of the fundraising boom's biggest beneficiary. In theory, Obama thinks something is wrong -- he claims to support campaign finance "reform," including more limits on private contributions and support for taxpayer-funded campaigns. But sometimes, actions speak louder than words. Much louder.
We are constantly told by reform advocates (including, in the past, Obama) that large contributions corrupt the candidates. Indeed, Obama has called money "the original sin" in politics. But the Democratic nominee obviously doesn't feel corrupted by the contributions to his effort. Indeed, campaign manager David Plouffe has said that the campaign is "proud" of the donors who constitute "the backbone" of the campaign. Plouffe and others argue that the reason Obama's fundraising machine doesn't pose a threat of corruption is that his campaign is somehow different: Contributions to Obama's campaign come from millions of small donors, not from "fat cats."
But this is not the full picture. Obama has indeed attracted record numbers of small contributors, many giving just a few dollars over the Internet. By the end of October, however, the Obama campaign will almost certainly have raised more money in contributions of $200 or more than any previous presidential candidate has raised in total contributions of any size. Here's another key comparison: A greater percentage of Obama's funds have come from donors contributing more than $200 than the percentage of funds President Bush raised from such donors in his 2000 and 2004 campaigns. Don't think $200 is a "large" contribution? Well, Obama is also likely to raise twice as much money in contributions of $1,000 or more than any previous candidate in history. In short, if every small contribution, however defined, were taken away from the Obama campaign, he would still have raised more money in large contributions than any candidate before -- by a very substantial margin. Yet Obama isn't worried about any corrupting effects of all this cash, and neither are his supporters, who continue to open their wallets.
Another concern that some campaign finance reform advocates have is simple inequality. It's just not fair, goes the argument, for one candidate to spend so much more than the other. Oddly, this conflicts with another argument we frequently hear, that a candidate's financial support should reflect his or her popularity. But however one looks at it, the inequality doesn't really seem to bother Obama. After all, he could solve any cash imbalance immediately by deciding to limit his spending. Not much chance of that.
Some object that Obama simply must spend more to offset attacks from "outside groups," such as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, whose ads helped sink Kerry back in 2004. But this is not true either. In fact, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, groups supporting the Democratic candidate have spent more than groups opposing him, while groups supporting McCain have been outspent by groups opposing him. In other words, "outside" groups only tip the scales further in Obama's favor.
Others note that the Republican National Committee is outspending the Democratic National Committee. This is true, but even with that difference included, Obama is still outspending McCain by a sizeable margin.
Obviously, given a choice, Obama thinks that it is more important that he get his message out to the American people as often as possible than that he and McCain spend an equal amount of money. And so do his supporters. September's amazing fundraising totals will hardly persuade Obama backers to start making contributions to McCain in order to show their commitment to equality.
This suggests that partisanship, rather than principle, is what drives most support for campaign finance reform. When one side is being outspent, its partisans naturally want to limit the fundraising of the other side. But if we really are concerned about "fairness," the best approach is probably to remove restrictions on fundraising altogether, rather than limit the speech of those who are raising money successfully.
Campaign finance laws never affect all candidates equally. For example, the one area where McCain has an advantage this cycle is the fundraising success of the RNC versus the DNC. But because of the byzantine campaign finance rules (for which he bears considerable responsibility), the Arizona senator cannot take full advantage of that edge. Due to the rules, the RNC can only use a portion of those funds to campaign for its presidential nominee. This is illogical and, this year, increases the inequality in campaign spending.
We should consider it a healthy thing when Americans support their political beliefs with their dollars. What we see in this election is that contributions don't really cause "corruption" and that we don't really want the government deciding who has spoken too much and who has not spoken enough. If Obama's fundraising shows us the emptiness of the arguments for campaign finance "reform," he will have done us a great service, in spite of himself.
Bradley A. Smith, a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, is a professor of law at Capital University and chairman of the Center for Competitive Politics.
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October 26, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
A New England Brawl
BYLINE: David S. Broder
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DATELINE: HENNIKER, N.H.
New Hampshire may be the only state where you can turn on the television and see a commercial in which the Democratic candidate for the Senate lavishes praise on President Bush.
Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor now running for the Senate, expresses her heartfelt support for the war in Iraq and the Bush tax cuts, before repeating the line, "I'll stand with President Bush."
The quotes are authentic but horribly out of date. They were uttered in 2002, the first time Shaheen tangled with a young John Sununu for the Senate. Six years after he won that race -- barely -- Sununu is fighting for his political life in a climate far less benign for Republicans. His ad, called "Remember," is designed to raise doubts about Shaheen in the minds of the many independent voters who clearly want to use their Senate vote to send a message of disapproval to Bush.
When they held their first televised debate at New England College here the other night, it was evident that this grudge fight, now six years old and counting, has exhausted the patience and good will of both candidates. They started quarreling with the first question -- Sununu supporting the financial rescue package and Shaheen condemning it as a giveaway to Wall Street. And they never stopped. When Sununu tried to detail the changes he'd supported in the bailout to help consumers and investors, Shaheen cut him off. "That's so much Washington mumbo jumbo," she said.
Their fight has drawn heavy outside money from both parties, as Democrats strive for a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority and as Republicans try to save one of their bright future stars. Shaheen, 61, a New Hampshire campaign manager for Gary Hart and President Jimmy Carter before she won the first of her three terms as governor, is exceptionally well connected with Democratic powers.
But Sununu, 44, whose father served three terms as governor before becoming George H.W. Bush's White House chief of staff, began building his own networks as a three-term member of the House. In the Senate, he has traveled the world with John McCain.
This is a year that has proved to be a severe test for both McCain -- the winner of the 2000 and 2008 Republican New Hampshire presidential primaries -- and Sununu.
Demographic changes, particularly the migration of educated high-tech workers from Massachusetts and other states, and the popularity of Democratic Gov. John Lynch, have given the Democrats a new lease on life. In 2006, they took both House seats from the GOP and captured both houses of the Legislature. Though Barack Obama was upset by Hillary Clinton in January's primary, he never shut down his operations here -- and has a formidable organization.
A poll in the Concord Monitor this week showed Obama with a seven-point margin over McCain and Shaheen with an identical lead over Sununu, though the Senate race tightens when only those firmly committed are counted.
Dante Scala, the head of the political science department at the University of New Hampshire and an expert on the state's politics, commented that Sununu was "trying to climb a pretty steep mountain" even before the economic tailspin began last month. "He hoped to use her record on taxes as governor and her opposition to nuclear power and offshore drilling to bring her down.
"But the economy just knocked him into a ditch, and he's trying to figure out how to climb out."
Sununu, like McCain, has struggled to convince voters that while he voted 90 percent of the time for Bush policies, he really is independent. He cites his opposition to an early Bush energy bill and his successful fight to add civil liberties protections to the Patriot Act.
He has a fan club on both sides of the aisle and is talked about in Republican circles as a potential presidential candidate.
The youngest member of the Senate has found himself running for reelection in one of the toughest years that Republicans have faced since 1974 -- when Democrats elected their big class of "Watergate babies."
His timetable is in serious jeopardy.
davidbroder@washpost.com
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October 25, 2008 Saturday
Met 2 Edition
Comedian Becomes Serious Contender;
Democrat Franken Leads Senate Race in Minn.
BYLINE: Paul Kane; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1369 words
DATELINE: MANKATO, Minn.
Al Franken settled into the Wagon Wheel Cafe and for 45 uninterrupted minutes talked with a handful of Minnesota farmers about the promise of cellulosic ethanol, the impact of the sinking dollar on crop prices and his pledge to secure a seat on the Agriculture Committee if he is elected to the U.S. Senate.
Then the Democrat worked the diner crowd, shaking hands and asking for support like a seasoned statesman, betraying no hint that he was once a longtime writer and actor on "Saturday Night Live" and a sharp-tongued liberal talk-radio host.
Nevertheless, after Franken left, Jodi Dickey dismissed his candidacy, saying it was "like Tina Fey running for office." But then the undecided voter thought a bit more about the state of the country and reconsidered. "Actually, maybe that's not such a bad idea."
The political climate this year is such that Franken -- best known for starring in an "SNL" skit in which his character stares into a mirror and attempts to reassure himself that, doggone it, people like him -- has pulled ahead in his Senate race against Republican Sen. Norm Coleman.
Just weeks ago, Coleman appeared to be headed for victory, one of a handful of Republicans expected to win in a tough year for the GOP. But then a bad economy turned grim, the public's faith in Congress cratered, and support for Franken started to grow. The latest poll, a University of Wisconsin survey that came out Thursday, showed Franken ahead of Coleman 40 percent to 34 percent, his biggest lead of the race. Independent Dean Barkley was favored by 15 percent of those surveyed.
As the race has tightened, its importance nationally has increased greatly. Leaders of both parties see the contest as one of a critical few that will determine whether Democrats win a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate, so both parties are directing high-profile supporters and millions of dollars to Minnesota.
Officials at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, fearful of a union-friendly Democratic Senate, have dubbed the race "ground zero" in the effort to stop a 60-seat majority. The chamber and its affiliates have spent more than $3 million on ads designed to scare voters about Franken and Democrats, according to sources on both sides.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is on the air with an ad called "Character," in which Franken's past satirical work is attacked for allegedly demeaning women and minorities. An angry Franken is shown on a blood-red screen, pumping his fist at a political rally.
On Franken's side has been Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who has campaigned with him and appears in one of his latest ads. Last month former vice president Al Gore headlined a Franken rally, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has run more than $6 million worth of advertisements, almost all accusing Coleman of being a close ally of the Bush White House, according to an estimate from a Democratic source monitoring media purchases.
On the campaign trail, the race is largely about Franken, with the Democrat trying to convince voters he is a serious candidate and Coleman attempting to cast him as too inexperienced and insincere to help solve their problems.
"Serious times require serious leadership," Coleman told two dozen voters Monday in Glencoe, a conservative town about 45 miles from the Twin Cities.
Franken, 57, grew up in St. Louis Park outside Minneapolis and moved to New York in the mid-1970s to begin his career as a comedy writer for "Saturday Night Live," for which he won five Emmys. By the 1980s he was appearing on the show as Stuart Smalley, a self-help guru who became the linchpin of the 1995 film "Stuart Saves His Family."
Thirty years after leaving Minnesota, Franken returned home in late 2005 and began laying the groundwork for the race against Coleman. Franken's outspoken critiques of conservatives -- his mid-1990s book "Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot" was a bestseller -- made him a hero among liberal activists. But having never run for office, and having written decades worth of pieces that were funny but sometimes inflammatory, Franken was considered a long shot.
Franken said he believes that his comedic past and his time as a talk-radio host helped attract initial attention to his candidacy, but that to win he will have to demonstrate a grasp of the impact of two wars and a global financial crisis on voters' lives.
"I think the people that are paying attention -- the reason I'm doing so well right now -- they understand that I'm talking about the issues that affect them and that I'm a serious guy," he said in an interview outside the Wagon Wheel.
To that end, Franken campaigned Tuesday as if he were an old farmhand. Sen. Tom Harkin (D), the Agriculture Committee chairman from neighboring Iowa, appeared at the diner to promise Franken a seat on his committee. Franken took notes on a yellow pad as the farmers discussed biofuel production and, in vowing more funding for wind farms, he informed them that the state's 1st Congressional District is the sixth windiest in the nation.
In the spring and summer, Franken was on the defense, dealing with criticism that he failed to pay tens of thousands of dollars in taxes earlier this decade and for writing an article in Playboy that some said was derogatory toward women.
Coleman has dealt with controversy, too. Minnesota Democrats have questioned whether he is getting an unduly favorable deal on his $600-a-month Capitol Hill rental, which is owned by one of his political consultants. The senator said he has only a small bedroom in the apartment and pays a fair amount. And he recently denied allegations that he received free suits from a longtime campaign contributor.
Coleman, who this month pulled his negative advertising, said he hopes voters will consider his background as a prosecutor, city councilman, mayor and senator. He also encourages voters to consider Franken's background.
"What have you done for middle-class families in the state of Minnesota; what have you done in the last 30 years? I can point to 50 things I've done. . . . Tell me one thing. You're running for United States Senate. This is serious -- that's a fair question for folks to ask," Coleman said in an interview after campaigning at Gert and Erma's coffee shop in Glencoe.
But Coleman is struggling to get that message through the anti-Republican mood among Minnesota voters, particularly since the financial markets collapsed and he supported the $700 billion rescue plan. Franken was opposed to the bailout and rails against it on the stump.
In conservative Glencoe, the type of town where Republicans need to do well to offset Democratic strength in cities, Coleman faced heated questions about the bailout. "If I lose this race, it's because of the American economy and voting for a rescue package," he said afterward.
At several stops Monday, Coleman did not mention his party's presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain. A poll this week showed McCain trailing Sen. Barack Obama by almost 20 points in Minnesota. And the only sign of President Bush was a Franken staffer wearing a Bush mask outside a Coleman event in Redwood Falls in southwestern Minnesota, an ever-present attempt by the Democrat's campaign to remind voters of Coleman's once-close ties to the White House.
Even as Franken tries to convince voters he's sincere, the comedian in him still emerges. At a rally Tuesday with 2,000 supporters at the University of Minnesota, he ad-libbed jokes throughout his 20-minute speech and poked fun at Clinton. He urged voters to get "Franken for Senate" bumper stickers, but to not cut off other drivers until the election is over.
Franken then started bantering with the crowd as he recited positive economic statistics from the Clinton White House era, rhetorically asking the audience if they recalled those times. "Vaguely," a man yelled, prompting laughter.
"I'll do the jokes, sir," Franken replied, drawing even more laughs.
After the rally, Ann Jaede, 73, said she had been very hesitant to support Franken in the spring because of "the comedian aspect of it."
Now, Jaede said: "He's become more serious. I think he's taken the edge off. That's his personality. He's made it work for him, not against him."
LOAD-DATE: October 25, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Cory Ryan -- Getty Images; Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been campaigning in Minnesota with U.S. Senate hopeful Al Franken.
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The Washington Post
October 25, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
McCain Blasts Rival On Stump in Colorado;
Obama Is Ahead in Polls in GOP State
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 596 words
DATELINE: DENVER, Oct. 24
Sen. John McCain opened up a fresh line of attack against his presidential rival in Colorado on Friday, saying Sen. Barack Obama's election would give Democrats unchecked authority over the nation's purse strings.
"The answer to a slowing economy is not higher taxes, but that's exactly what's going to happen when the Democrats have total control of Washington," he warned, while also taking a swipe at Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) for suggesting that taxes and spending may need to be increased to deal with the nation's economic crisis. "When he says that, quote, there are, quote, 'a lot of very rich people out there whom we can tax,' it's safe to assume that means you," McCain said.
McCain spent the day in Denver, Colorado Springs and Durango, campaigning in a traditionally Republican state where Obama is leading in the polls and has been flooding the airwaves with advertisements. McCain was accompanied by John Elway, a former Denver Bronco quarterback legendary for fourth-quarter heroics, who told the Denver crowd that he "knows a thing or two about comebacks" and expressed confidence that McCain would defy predictions that he will go down to defeat here.
Judging from his speech Friday morning, McCain plans to keep hammering away at Obama on taxes, spending and the question of whether he is ready to become commander in chief, the subject of a McCain campaign ad released Friday.
"Senator Obama said yesterday that if you want to know how he would respond in a crisis, look what he's done during his campaign," McCain said. "But we've seen the wrong response from him over and over during this campaign."
McCain noted that Obama "opposed the surge strategy that is bringing us victory in Iraq and will bring us victory in Afghanistan," continuing: "He said he would sit down unconditionally with the world's worst dictators. When Russia invaded Georgia, Senator Obama said the invaded country should show restraint. He's been wrong on all of these."
The GOP nominee also picked up on new reports of rising foreclosures to sharpen his critique of the administration and Congress for not moving fast enough to help struggling homeowners. McCain wants the federal government to spend up to $300 billion to buy bad mortgages and give homeowners a break, and on Friday morning he appeared to refer to reports that the federal government may start guaranteeing home mortgages.
"Finally Congress and the administration are putting together a plan to address this problem," McCain said. "Let me say: It's about time."
Obama, who was off the campaign trail on Friday visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii, has worked to deflect his rival's attacks, insisting that in his administration taxes would go up only for people making more than $250,000.
But in a conference call, senior aides to Obama described an electoral map that heavily favors their candidate and an organizational juggernaut aimed at sweeping the battleground states that are still up for grabs.
The best news for Obama, campaign manager David Plouffe said, is that McCain is not seriously threatening in any state that voted for Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry in 2004.
McCain is making an aggressive run at Pennsylvania, but Plouffe pointed out that Democrats hold a 1.2 million voter-registration advantage in the state, double the 2004 edge.
The "cold, hard numbers," as Plouffe put it, are this: McCain would have to win 15 percent of the Democratic vote, 95 percent of the Republican vote, and 60 percent of independents to carry Pennsylvania on Nov. 4.
Staff writer Shailagh Murray contributed to this report
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The Washington Post
October 25, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
Obama Has Burst in Ad Spending in Early October
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk and Sarah Cohen; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 436 words
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama reported spending $82 million on advertising during the first two weeks of October -- more than half of what Sen. John F. Kerry spent on television commercials for the entire 2004 presidential campaign.
The burst of spending came on the heels of Obama's record month of fundraising and has, in some key markets, enabled the presidential nominee to broadcast as many as seven commercials for every one aired by Republican Sen. John McCain.
"It's beyond saturation," said Evan Tracey, a media analyst.
The overall differences in the way each campaign spent money during the critical first weeks of October are stark.
The reports filed with the Federal Election Commission late Thursday show that Obama and the Democratic Party committees that are supporting his effort spent nearly $105 million from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15. McCain and Republican Party entities, by contrast, spent just over $25 million.
Ten days ago, the campaigns each had about $100 million left in the bank to carry them through Election Day. But Obama's decision to forgo public financing for the general-election campaign has left him free to continue to raise money in the race's waning weeks. The Democrat raised an additional $37 million in the first half of the month, most of it via online donations.
For fundraising, McCain has relied on the Republican National Committee, which reported bringing in about $15 million through various entities during the first half of October.
The spending advantage has enabled Obama to blunt any potential for criticism of the negative ads he has run by complementing them with twice as many biographical and issue-oriented spots. And he has been able to advertise in costly media markets that reach battleground states, such as the Boston market (New Hampshire), the Washington, D.C., market (Northern Virginia) and even the Chicago market (Indiana).
"Obama has spent more in these markets than McCain had to spend for the entire general election," said Tracey, whose firm tracks spending on political ads.
The advantage has also been in evidence on the ground. In October, Obama and the Democratic National Committee had $2.3 million in payroll costs, compared with about $1 million for McCain and the RNC.
One of those salaries garnered media attention yesterday -- $36,000 in payments the RNC made to makeup artist Amy Strozzi, and about $19,000 it paid hair stylist Angela Lew. These charges are not entirely uncommon -- all campaigns have a theatrical element to them and require some attention to the appearance of the candidate, or in this case, vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
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The New York Times
October 24, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Polls Show Obama Gaining Among Bush Voters
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG and MARJORIE CONNELLY; Marina Stefan, Dalia Sussman and Megan Thee contributed reporting for this article.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 18
LENGTH: 1228 words
Senator Barack Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls.
Underscoring his increasing strength in the final phase of the campaign, Mr. Obama led Mr. McCain among groups that voted for President Bush four years ago: those with incomes greater than $50,000 a year; married women; suburbanites and white Catholics. He is also competitive among white men, a group that has not voted for a Democrat over a Republican since 1972, when pollsters began surveying people after they voted.
Of potential concern for Mr. Obama's strategists, however, a third of voters surveyed say they know someone who does not support Mr. Obama because he is black.
Voters were also closely divided about Mr. Obama's ability to handle a crisis, a finding that came as Republicans seized on remarks by his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, that foreign leaders were likely to test him in the first months of his term if he is elected.
Over all, however, the poll found that Mr. Obama would defeat Mr. McCain if the election were held now, with 52 percent of those identified as probable voters saying they would vote for Mr. Obama and 39 percent saying they would vote for Mr. McCain.
Among registered voters in the latest poll, the spread is almost identical, with 51 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Obama and 38 percent saying they would vote for Mr. McCain. A New York Times/CBS News poll taken a week ago showed a similar margin of victory for Mr. Obama.
The latest nationwide telephone poll was conducted Sunday through Wednesday with 1,152 adults, of whom 1,046 said they were registered to vote. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
To measure support for the candidates among specific voting blocs, The Times combined data from the latest poll with one conducted last week because some of the subgroups were too small to be statistically reliable when extracted from a single survey.
Despite Mr. McCain's continued questioning of Mr. Obama's readiness, the number of voters surveyed who say Mr. Obama has prepared himself well enough for the presidency was at its highest yet in the newest poll, 56 percent.
When The Times and CBS News first asked the question, more voters said they believed Mr. Obama was not ready, 49 percent, than believed he was, 44 percent. Mr. McCain still holds an advantage on that front, with 64 percent saying they believe he is prepared for the presidency.
There was also fresh evidence that Mr. McCain's attacks on Mr. Obama's character and qualifications in commercials, mailings, speeches and automated telephone calls were, if anything, harming Mr. McCain. The percentage of people who view Mr. McCain unfavorably was at its highest level since The Times and CBS began asking the question in 1999. Forty-six percent said they held unfavorable views of him, with 39 percent saying they viewed him favorably. Mr. Obama was viewed favorably by 52 percent of those surveyed, and unfavorably by 31 percent.
Voters were almost evenly split over Mr. Obama's ability to handle a crisis wisely: 49 percent said they were confident he could and 47 percent said they would be uneasy. Respondents showed less ease with Mr. McCain: 51 percent said they would be uneasy with his approach and 46 percent expressed confidence.
Mr. Obama fared better than Mr. McCain on economic matters: 65 percent said they were somewhat confident or very confident in Mr. Obama's ability to handle the economy; 47 percent said the same thing about Mr. McCain.
In spite of Mr. McCain's sustained attack on Mr. Obama's proposal to raise income taxes on households and businesses that earn more than $250,000 a year, Mr. Obama's plan received significant support in the new poll. When voters were asked whether they supported the tax increase to help provide health insurance for those who are not covered, 62 percent said it was a ''good idea'' and 33 percent said it was a ''bad idea.''
Voters were evenly divided over Mr. McCain's plan to make permanent Mr. Bush's 2001 tax cuts.
In another area where Mr. McCain could take heart, the last two polls offered fresh evidence that his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate had helped to excite two traditional bases of support for Republican presidential candidates. White voters who say they attend church every week preferred Mr. McCain over Mr. Obama by 61 percent to 29 percent, and voters who live in the South preferred him over Mr. Obama by 51 percent to 40 percent.
But, over all, the percentage of those who view Ms. Palin unfavorably, 40 percent, was higher than those who view her favorably, 31 percent.
Senior strategists of both parties have viewed the unpopularity of Mr. Bush and the Republican Party as major drags on Mr. McCain's chances. Favorability ratings for both are at all-time lows. Mr. Bush's approval rating of 22 percent is tied for its worst in the history of the Times/CBS poll, and opinions of the Republican Party are at their lowest since the poll first included questions about the political parties in 1985. Only 36 percent expressed a favorable opinion of Republicans, compared with 56 percent who expressed a favorable view of Democrats.
That difference was reflected in comments from some respondents who said they had voted for Mr. Bush in 2004 but were planning to vote for Mr. Obama.
''I've always been a Republican, but I've switched in the last four years,'' said Helen Taylor, 63, of Los Fresnos, Tex., in a follow-up interview. ''I voted for Bush because I knew more about him than Kerry, and I stuck with the Republican stance on things at that time. But I became concerned about things Bush was doing, and now I'm more in line with the Democratic platform. I also like Barack Obama because he has intelligence and class and the ability to think on his feet.''
Mr. Obama has a 16-point advantage over Mr. McCain among women in the combined data of the last two polls; Senator John Kerry outpolled Mr. Bush by three percentage points among women in 2004, according to exit polls.
Mr. Obama is supported by 45 percent of white women, and Mr. McCain is preferred by 42 percent; Mr. Bush beat Mr. Kerry with 55 percent of the vote among white women, according to exit polls.
Mr. Obama is tied with Mr. McCain among white men, a group that President Bush won with 61 percent of their vote. Mr. Bush's father, George Bush, was favored by more white men than those who preferred Mr. Clinton when he won the White House in 1992.
Some voters ascribe racial motives to those opposing Mr. Obama. Among the 33 percent who said they knew someone who did not support him mainly because he is black was Robert Richter, a Democrat from Dunbar, Pa.
''Some people are prejudiced and don't want to vote for him, for one thing, because he's black and for another, because they feel he's a Muslim,'' said Mr. Richter, a gas station worker. ''I think for some people saying Obama is a Muslim is their way of getting around the black issue.''
Mr. Obama is a Christian, but e-mail has circulated falsely identifying him as a Muslim.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 24, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Bob Hiett, 64, listening on Wednesday to a speech by Senator Barack Obama at a Democratic rally in Richmond, Va. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES) POLL: Tracking Preferences: A comparison of groups' preferences in the 2004 presidential election with the groups' current support. (2008 aggregated data based on New York Times/CBS News telephone polls conducted nationwide Oct. 10-13 with 972 registered voters and Oct. 19-22 with 1,046 registered voters. 2004 data based on nationwide exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.)
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USA TODAY
October 24, 2008 Friday
FINAL EDITION
Independent groups spend millions bypassing TV, radio;
Some say phone calls, canvassing, mail more effective
BYLINE: Matt Kelley
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 675 words
WASHINGTON -- As the presidential campaign heads into its final days, hundreds of workers are knocking on doors and calling voters in Wisconsin, trying to persuade them to vote for Democrat Barack Obama.
They don't work for the Obama campaign. They're hired by Advancing Wisconsin, a new liberal group that has reported spending more than $550,000 this month in support of Obama. None of that money has gone for radio or TV ads.
"We leave that to other people," says Mike Tate, founder of Advancing Wisconsin. "We think what's an effective tool is going out and knocking on people's doors and talking to people."
Although political radio and TV ads get the most attention, Federal Election Commission (FEC) records show that independent political groups are spending millions of dollars in the presidential campaign on canvassing, direct mail, live and automated phone calls, e-mails and text messages.
Independent groups spent more than $13.4 million on those activities in support or opposition to Obama or Republican John McCain from Sept. 5, when the political conventions ended, through Tuesday, a USA TODAY analysis of FEC records shows.
That spending heavily favors Obama: $9.1 million went for activities helping Obama and $4.3 million for McCain, the analysis shows.
Much of that advantage is thanks to the Service Employees International Union, which poured more than $4.8 million into door-to-door canvassing since the conventions, FEC records show. Anna Burger, SEIU's secretary-treasurer, said the union has "thousands of members (knocking) on the doors."
One of McCain's biggest supporters is the National Right to Life Political Action Committee, which spent more than $1.2 million on pro-McCain mailings. "Millions upon millions of unborn babies will die if Barack Obama is elected president," the group's website says.
Independent groups are turning away from broadcast ads because they're expensive and don't necessarily reach the target audience, Democratic political consultant Marty Stone says.
Voters who haven't been contacted yet can expect to be before the election. A national survey by the Pew Research Center in 2006 found that 71% of voters got political mail and 64% got a recorded phone message in the two months before the election.
The under-the-radar forms of voter contacts can be vehicles for nasty rhetoric, says Dennis Johnson, associate dean of the School of Political Management at George Washington University.
"We have a very distinct difference between what you can say on television and what you can say in a direct-mail piece or some other device," Johnson says.
The source for some of those claims is a conservative group called the National Campaign Fund, which FEC records show has spent more than $1.2 million on anti-Obama messages this year. The group's website and e-mails to supporters include dubious accusations ("Why is Obama afraid to admit he was born and raised a Muslim?") and bizarre claims ("Obama uses hypnosis to direct his followers").
"We're coming in and saying some things that maybe McCain can't say," says Jim Lacy, the National Campaign Fund's treasurer and co-founder. The group's other co-founder, Floyd Brown, says the group is not spreading false attacks. "If there's anything on our site that's not documented, factual and true, I'll take it down," Brown says. "I think the record is pretty clear. What we've done is very well documented."
Obama is a Christian.
On the other side, two liberal groups have produced an Internet video that begins with a picture of McCain after a bout with skin cancer in 2000 with the words, "John McCain is 72 years old and had cancer 4 times." The Brave New PAC and Democracy for America, a group founded by Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean and run by his brother, split the costs of briefly running the ad on MSNBC last month. Republican National Committee spokesman Danny Diaz released a statement calling it a "despicable and cheap smear."
The Price of Power is an ongoing series tracking the role of money in politics.
Contributing: Ken Dilanian.
LOAD-DATE: October 24, 2008
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GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, B/W
GRAPHIC, B/W, Julie Snider, USA TODAY, Source: USA TODAY analysis of Federal Election Commission records (Bar chart)
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The Washington Post
October 24, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
McCain's Pitch to Average Joes Focuses on Taxes
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 383 words
The Ad: (BARACK OBAMA): I think when you spread the wealth around it's good for everybody.
(1st WOMAN): I'm Joe the plumber.
(2nd WOMAN): I'm Joe the plumber.
(3rd WOMAN): I'm Joe the plumber.
(NARRATOR): Spread the wealth?
(1st MAN): I'm supposed to work harder . . .
(2nd MAN): . . . just to pay more taxes.
(3rd MAN): Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?
(4th WOMAN): I'm Joe the plumber.
(NARRATOR): Barack Obama. Higher taxes. More spending. Not ready.
Analysis: This John McCain ad is based on a faulty premise.
The "ordinary" folks who say they are like Joe Wurzelbacher, the Ohio plumber constantly invoked by the Republican nominee, are meant to convey that they, too, are working-class Americans. But if they are anywhere near the income status of Joe the plumber, they would receive a tax cut under Barack Obama's plan -- not, as the commercial suggests, a tax increase.
Obama would raise taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year, which is why the ad carefully skirts any mention of income. Wurzelbacher, who makes roughly $40,000 a year, has acknowledged that his taxes would be cut by the Obama proposal. His complaint to the Democratic nominee during a campaign stop about having to pay higher taxes was based on his hope that one day he would buy a business and earn more than six times his current pay.
The "spread the wealth" remark, captured on videotape as the senator from Illinois talked to Wurzelbacher, is fair game for political attack. The unidentified people who complain that Obama would take more of their income to pay for government spending undoubtedly reflect a widespread resentment among taxpayers.
But redistributing wealth -- that is, taking a bigger slice from the affluent than from those in lower brackets -- has long been a feature of the progressive income tax. The Obama campaign disputes the trillion-dollar figure and says the candidate has made clear how he will pay for new spending -- in part through the higher levy on upper-income taxpayers.
Joe the plumber has become a potent symbol for the McCain campaign, but as this ad demonstrates, his circumstances don't fit the charge that Obama would raise taxes on plumbers, and others, in his financial situation.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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The Washington Post
October 24, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
Ideology Aside, This Has Been the Year of the Woman
BYLINE: Lois Romano; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1582 words
Two months after Sarah Palin joined the GOP ticket, and four months after Hillary Clinton ended her quest for the presidency, 2008 is turning out to be a transformative year for women in politics, according to women leaders across the political spectrum.
As Election Day nears, it's clear that gender was not a disqualifying factor for either Clinton or Palin. Voters who turned against them did so for other reasons, just as they do with male candidates. Women from both parties also perceive with satisfaction a heightened emphasis on their issues in this year's race.
Palin's candidacy has sent a jolt through traditional liberal women's organizations as she tries to redefine feminism, suggesting that the old movement has become detached from the hockey moms Palin champions. The mother of five and former beauty queen is the antithesis of the bra-burning militant libbers of the '60s, and she is adamantly antiabortion. Yet Palin has grabbed the feminist label vigorously and has been hailed as one by the thousands of supportive women who wave their lipstick tubes at her rallies.
"She is a direct counterpoint to the liberal feminist agenda for America," John McCain declared last weekend.
While liberal groups have strong ideological differences with Palin, some nonetheless rallied to her defense when she was accused of neglecting her family for the campaign trail. "Would they be asking whether a man with five children should be running for high office?" wrote Kim Gandy, president of the National Organization for Women, in an online column. ". . . I feel for Palin, and for all women struggling to be taken seriously in a man's realm."
Although she finds the Alaska governor's views on issues critical to women "a disappointment," Gandy said in an interview that she believes it's important for her own teenage daughters "to see women competing at the highest levels of American politics."
All in all, when the votes are cast and the country moves on, the women's movement will have lots of reasons to feel good about the 2008 election year. "I never thought I'd see another woman on a national ticket in this cycle after Hillary lost," said Geraldine Ferraro, who 24 years ago became the first women to run on a major party's national ticket. "But it's like a ripple effect. Hillary's candidacy, my candidacy -- they have a ripple effect far beyond the immediate results."
The unexpected recognition of a conservative as a role model for women has forced some traditional feminists to reconsider the movement's mission. "It's going to take us a while to find our bearings," said Sarah Stoesz, who runs the Planned Parenthood office that oversees Minnesota and the Dakotas. "As feminists, we've always thought that a core aspect of women's equality is about being in control of our reproductive lives. But Sarah Palin is throwing the calculus out the window and demonstrating a view that some people would call feminism: I can be governor, I can have five children, I can shoot and field-dress a moose, and I don't need access to abortion.
"There's a big debate inside the leadership of the women's movement about how much abortion should be a key political issue."
Even if Palin's star fades, many women think that her impact on the definition of a feminist will be lasting. April Ponnuru, 30, said that though she wishes Palin had more policy experience, "at the end of the day, she is a conservative woman who has strong convictions on life and other conservative issues -- and she made it."
"There are really a lot of us out there," said Ponnuru, the executive director of the National Review Institute and the mother of a 3-year-old. "We are vastly underrepresented in politics, and she's the first truly national politician to make a strong statement about being a pro-life woman -- and that's very appealing."
Conservative activist and lawyer Cleta Mitchell started her career as a liberal women's rights politician in Okalahoma, fighting for the passage of the Equal Rights Amendment in the '70s. "We never said equal rights was just for some of you girls depending on your political philosophy -- that was never part of the deal," Mitchell said. "It was about having options and choices."
One option women have today is that they don't have to dress like a man to make it in politics -- although the frenzy about Palin's $150,000 designer shopping spree shows there are limits to what the public will accept.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) makes no bones about favoring Armani suits and Chanel shoes -- and has been criticized for it; Clinton has developed a consistent fashionable look with regular hairstyling and St. John suits. Palin, with her long hair, slim skirts and red high heels, is surely the first national female candidate to be called "hot," as Alec Baldwin did last weekend on "Saturday Night Live."
"Back in 1984, Geraldine Ferraro could not have dressed like Sarah Palin and been on the ticket with Walter Mondale," said Michelle D. Bernard, president of the conservative Independent Women's Forum. "She is feminine and she is fashionable, and that is okay now." Further, Mondale and Ferraro barely touched in public; McCain and Palin routinely greet each other with a hug.
The next big issue for women, Bernard surmised, is to determine whether both sides of the ideological spectrum can find common ground. "Is there a big enough tent -- can we all find the common ground in the push for women's rights regardless of women's position on abortion?" she asks.
In recent years, vocal groups such as IWF and Feminists for Life have stepped forward to fight the perception that only liberal women can be in favor of equality and independence. By calling herself a feminist -- once considered a dirty word by the religious right -- Palin proclaimed that feminism is no longer synonymous with liberalism but something that could be shared and celebrated by all women.
Palin is not only antiabortion; her position is even more restrictive than McCain's (although she has never pushed to legislate on it as governor). She favors banning abortion unless the life of the woman is in jeopardy, whereas McCain would make exceptions in cases of rape or incest.
"It's just nonsense to say you can't be a feminist and be against abortion," says former Clinton fundraiser and supporter Lynn Forester de Rothschild, who now backs McCain. "Democrats use [abortion] as a noose around your neck," says de Rothschild, who is in favor of abortion rights. "Sarah Palin," she says, "rocks all the stereotypes of feminism and can only enhance progress for women. "
Karen O'Connor, director of the Women and Politics Institute at American University, argues that while Palin "has had extraordinary accomplishments . . . to be a feminist, you have to believe women deserve equal pay for equal work." (McCain announced his opposition to the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which was blocked in April by other GOP senators; Palin has said the bill would encourage too much litigation.)
While family and economic issues have long been the focus of politicians, leading voices for women's rights maintain that this year is the first time women have been so aggressively targeted as a must demographic for victory. Many of these voters found their voice through Clinton's campaign, and since the senator from New York left the race in June, both Barack Obama and McCain have been fighting for her supporters. Obama has made significant ad buys targeting women, including one during "SNL" last weekend. A few days later, Palin surrounded herself with women leaders in Nevada -- including two defectors from Clinton's campaign -- to loudly castigate Obama for not choosing Clinton as his running mate. "Our opponents think they have the women's vote all locked up, which is a little presumptuous," she thundered.
Voters have responded to all the attention. Cindy Curry is a 43-year-old mother of two from North Carolina and a registered independent who says she has closely followed the race. A CPA, Curry supported Clinton and was initially "very excited" when McCain selected Palin as his running mate but has since cooled on her. Still, what has moved Curry the most is the mere fact that there were two accomplished, attractive women to consider. "I like to see strong women, and I like to see women succeed," said Curry, who will likely vote for McCain.
Independent Julia Lynch, 53, a professional federal supervisor from Georgia, will vote for Obama, but despite her philosophical differences from Palin, she stated: "You go, girl! These women have moved the process along for us. . . . It's just a matter of time before gender will not matter at all as people choose leaders."
Palin has not been universally embraced by her party. The Republican Majority for Choice, an organization that supports abortion rights, last month announced that it would not endorse the ticket. "She is not pro anything we support," says Jennifer Blei Stockman, co-chairman of the group.
And some GOP women, along with their Democratic counterparts, have openly questioned Palin's qualifications. Mitchell has an answer to that. "Even if Sarah Palin is as 'unqualified' as the left would have us believe," she wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal, ". . . then former congresswoman Bella Abzug's lifelong goal has been achieved. She used to say that she was 'working for the day when a mediocre woman could get as far as a mediocre man.' "
Staff writers Robert Barnes and Peter Slevin contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 24, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Carlos Barria -- Reuters; The National Organization for Women's president says that "to see women competing at the highest levels" sends a positive message to children.
IMAGE; By Ricky Carioti -- The Washington Post; "Geraldine Ferraro could not have dressed like Sarah Palin and been on the ticket with Walter Mondale," one conservative said of John McCain's running mate.
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The Washington Post
October 24, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
As an Issue, Taxes Favor Obama;
Polls Lean Toward Democrat on a Traditional GOP Strength
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz and Robert Barnes; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 1163 words
DATELINE: SARASOTA, Fla., Oct. 23
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, John McCain has turned to an argument that has served Republicans well in recent history, using stump speeches and television ads to drive home the idea that the Democratic presidential nominee would raise taxes on average Americans.
Campaigning across the battleground state of Florida in his "Straight Talk Express" bus on Thursday, McCain invoked Joe the Plumber, the Ohio tradesman who McCain argued is the kind of voter who would be harmed by Sen. Barack Obama's economic policies.
"There's Joes all over here," McCain said, as he surveyed thousands of supporters spread out across a lumberyard at Allstar Building Materials in Ormond Beach. "We shouldn't be taxing our small businesses more, as Senator Obama wants to do. We need to be helping them expand their businesses and create jobs."
But for the first time in decades, Democrats appear to have the upper hand in the debate over taxes. Independent analysts estimate that only a small fraction of small-business owners would see their taxes increase under Obama's plan, and polls show that voters are beginning to accept Obama's argument that more Americans would see their taxes cut under his proposals. Even some Republicans said they worry that Obama has more than neutralized a signature GOP issue with the promise of a tax cut for middle-class Americans, while putting McCain on the defensive by alleging -- unfairly, in the view of independent analysts -- that the Republican would raise taxes on health-care benefits.
Campaigning in Indianapolis on Thursday, Obama mocked McCain for making "the strange argument that the best way to stop companies from shipping jobs overseas is to give more tax cuts to companies that are shipping jobs overseas. More tax cuts for job outsourcers. That's what Senator McCain proposed as his answer to outsourcing."
A day earlier, Obama ridiculed the use of Joe the Plumber. While Joe is "cool," Obama said, "let's be clear who Senator McCain is fighting for. He's not fighting for Joe the Plumber. He's fighting for Joe the Hedge-Fund Manager."
Appearing on CNN Wednesday, McCain defended his proposal to cut corporate tax rates by saying that high corporate taxes are what force American companies to look overseas for expansion. He said Obama is "all about" trying to take money from the wealthy, and that corporations already pay their "full freight" of 35 percent. He wants to cut this tax rate to 25 percent.
Virginia Governor Timothy M. Kaine (D) said: "Virginians and Americans feel like the McCain strategy's already been discredited. Focusing tax cuts on the wealthiest and deregulating the economy -- hey, that's been the strategy that's been tried for the last eight years, and that's why we are where we are."
In the latest Washington Post-ABC tracking poll, Obama maintains a 51 to 43 percent lead over McCain on handling taxes. Obama's edge on this question in the Post poll is identical to the one President Bush held over John F. Kerry at this stage four years ago. At about this same point eight years ago, Bush was up 13 points on taxes over Al Gore.
Sara M. Taylor, former White House political director for Bush, said she does not think that Obama will implement his tax plan as promised, but she expressed grudging admiration for his success in making political headway on the issue. "Senator Obama has made it a central part of his campaign that most of the people are going to get a tax cut," Taylor said. "While that may or not be true in reality, they have done a good job of convincing people it is true."
Both McCain and Obama are proposing tax cuts, although Obama is also proposing increases on wealthy Americans. McCain says he would cut taxes on corporations and capital gains, give a bigger child tax credit, and permanently extend the Bush tax cuts for all income levels. Obama would limit the extension of the Bush tax cut to those making less than $250,000 a year, while providing targeted tax breaks for workers, retirees and other specific groups.
Under Obama's plan, for instance, most working-class families would receive a net tax cut, thanks to a rebate for payroll taxes of $500 for individuals and $1,000 for couples. That part of the Obama plan has come under most intense fire from McCain and his allies in recent days.
McCain aides said they will fight back hard on the issue and concede that they must regain lost support on taxes if they are to make the case that their candidate would be a better steward of the economy. To that end, they plan to spend heavily on a new ad that builds upon the conversation Obama had recently with Joe the Plumber (Samuel J. Wurzelbacher of Holland, Ohio), in which Obama was quoted as saying he wants to "spread the wealth," prompting McCain to accuse the Democrat of being eager to engage in wealth redistribution.
McCain's ad features several different people looking into the camera and saying, "I'm Joe the Plumber." One man accuses Obama of wanting to use the man's "sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending."
McCain's advisers said their private polling suggests the Joe the Plumber campaign is gaining traction, and that people understand that taxes should not be raised in a recession, even on the wealthy. Small-business owners are apoplectic about Obama's tax and spending plans, McCain adviser Nicolle Wallace said. "We have a very powerful closing argument," she said in an interview. "Most people generally believe you should lay a foundation for growth. Most people don't believe you take success and spread around the wealth."
But McCain's allies say Obama's ability to flood the airwaves on the issue, particularly with an ad that goes after McCain's plan to eliminate the tax deductibility of employer-provided health coverage, has shifted the conversation (The money would be made up with a refundable tax credit for individuals to buy health insurance, but Obama has made headway by arguing that the plan amounts to a major tax increase on the middle class).
Grover Norquist, a leading anti-tax activist, said the ads are swamping McCain's message. "The candidate that is running as the tax-cut candidate in the ads is Obama," he said, adding that McCain's credibility as a tax cutter has also been undermined because he opposed Bush's tax cuts before embracing them.
Democrats in battleground states professed to be unconcerned about McCain's criticism on taxes. Former Virginia governor and U.S. Senate candidate Mark Warner said the GOP tax message lacks credibility this year, because the country realizes what a tough economic condition exists and that the next administration must do something.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Gov. Edward G. Rendell said recently that, in his state, Obama had reversed the perception that he would raise most people's taxes. Along with Obama's plan to stimulate the economy, "That's what people want to hear, and that's what's turned the election," Rendell said.
Barnes reported from Indianapolis.
LOAD-DATE: October 24, 2008
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October 24, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
McCain for President
BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 757 words
Contrarian that I am, I'm voting for John McCain. I'm not talking about bucking the polls or the media consensus that it's over before it's over. I'm talking about bucking the rush of wet-fingered conservatives leaping to Barack Obama before they're left out in the cold without a single state dinner for the next four years.
I stand athwart the rush of conservative ship-jumpers of every stripe -- neo (Ken Adelman), moderate (Colin Powell), genetic/ironic (Christopher Buckley) and socialist/atheist (Christopher Hitchens) -- yelling "Stop!" I shall have no part of this motley crew. I will go down with the McCain ship. I'd rather lose an election than lose my bearings.
First, I'll have no truck with the phony case ginned up to rationalize voting for the most liberal and inexperienced presidential nominee in living memory. The "erratic" temperament issue, for example. As if McCain's risky and unsuccessful but in no way irrational attempt to tactically maneuver his way through the economic tsunami that came crashing down a month ago renders unfit for office a man who demonstrated the most admirable equanimity and courage in the face of unimaginable pressures as a prisoner of war, and who later steadily navigated innumerable challenges and setbacks, not the least of which was the collapse of his campaign just a year ago.
McCain the "erratic" is a cheap Obama talking point. The 40-year record testifies to McCain the stalwart.
Nor will I countenance the "dirty campaign" pretense. The double standard here is stunning. Obama ran a scurrilous Spanish-language ad falsely associating McCain with anti-Hispanic slurs. Another ad falsely claimed that McCain supports "cutting Social Security benefits in half." And for months Democrats insisted that McCain sought 100 years of war in Iraq.
McCain's critics are offended that he raised the issue of William Ayers. What's astonishing is that Obama was himself not offended by William Ayers.
Moreover, the most remarkable of all tactical choices of this election season is the attack that never was. Out of extreme (and unnecessary) conscientiousness, McCain refused to raise the legitimate issue of Obama's most egregious association -- with the race-baiting Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Dirty campaigning, indeed.
The case for McCain is straightforward. The financial crisis has made us forget, or just blindly deny, how dangerous the world out there is. We have a generations-long struggle with Islamic jihadism. An apocalyptic soon-to-be-nuclear Iran. A nuclear-armed Pakistan in danger of fragmentation. A rising Russia pushing the limits of revanchism. Plus the sure-to-come Falklands-like surprise popping out of nowhere.
Who do you want answering that phone at 3 a.m.? A man who's been cramming on these issues for the past year, who's never had to make an executive decision affecting so much as a city, let alone the world? A foreign policy novice instinctively inclined to the flabbiest, most vaporous multilateralism (e.g., the Berlin Wall came down because of "a world that stands as one"), and who refers to the most deliberate act of war since Pearl Harbor as "the tragedy of 9/11," a term more appropriate for a bus accident?
Or do you want a man who is the most prepared, most knowledgeable, most serious foreign policy thinker in the United States Senate? A man who not only has the best instincts but has the honor and the courage to, yes, put country first, as when he carried the lonely fight for the surge that turned Iraq from catastrophic defeat into achievable strategic victory?
There's just no comparison. Obama's own running mate warned this week that Obama's youth and inexperience will invite a crisis -- indeed a crisis "generated" precisely to test him. Can you be serious about national security and vote on Nov. 4 to invite that test?
And how will he pass it? Well, how has he fared on the only two significant foreign policy tests he has faced since he's been in the Senate? The first was the surge. Obama failed spectacularly. He not only opposed it. He tried to denigrate it, stop it and, finally, deny its success.
The second test was Georgia, to which Obama responded instinctively with evenhanded moral equivalence, urging restraint on both sides. McCain did not have to consult his advisers to instantly identify the aggressor.
Today's economic crisis, like every other in our history, will in time pass. But the barbarians will still be at the gates. Whom do you want on the parapet? I'm for the guy who can tell the lion from the lamb.
letters@charleskrauthammer.com
LOAD-DATE: October 24, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 24, 2008 Friday 9:56 AM EST
Barracuda Bandwagon
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2606 words
HIGHLIGHT: The media spotlight has swung back to Sarah Palin, and it's not just the designer outfits that cost more than some families might spend to send a kid to college.
The media spotlight has swung back to Sarah Palin, and it's not just the designer outfits that cost more than some families might spend to send a kid to college.
It's not just that Obama is off to Hawaii. It's not just that McCain hasn't changed his stump speech for days. It's not just that we're all tired of Joe the plumber. It's not just that things are so slow Drudge is touting this link-- "VIDEO: Obama Sneezes on Reporter." (What's next, Obama scrapes gum from shoe?)
It's that the punditocracy has concluded the Republican ticket is going down and is already fighting the next war.
Doggone media -- they inflict this election on us for two excruciating years, and now, before it's even over, they've moved on to 2012.
Yes, the very same people who once told you Hillary couldn't lose are now handicapping Palin's chances in the Republican primaries four years from now. That is, when they're not churning out pieces about how Obama will govern.
Got whiplash yet?
I'm not buying that Barack has this wrapped up, even with the spate of favorable battleground-state polls. (Roughly tied in North Carolina? How can that be?) But I am interested in how the prognosticators can in one breath be portraying Palin as Ms. Liability and in the next talking her up as a presidential candidate in her own right. That's quite a comeback, especially when she hasn't yet lost this election. But I think it also has something to do with the ongoing civil war in conservative circles, as we've chronicled here, which is forcing some pundits to embrace or reject Palinism -- something that didn't exist (at least outside of Juneau) before Aug. 29.
So forget about the prospect of Vice President Palin. Or at least, scratch the vice.
Atlantic's Marc Ambinder kicks off the action:
"There's a suspicion in some McCain loyalist precincts that Gov. Sarah Palin is beginning to play the Republican base against John McCain -- McCain won't let her campaign in Michigan . . . McCain won't let her bring up Jeremiah Wright . . . McCain doesn't like her terrorist pal talks . . . Think ahead to 2010 . . . 2011 . . . 2012. Palin is ambitious. Very ambitious.
"And if she wants the job, she's easily the frontrunner to become THE voice of the angry Right in the Wilderness. She is a favorite of talk radio and Fox News conservatives, and speaks their language as only a true member of the club can. (Her recent Limbaugh interview was full of dog whistles that any Dittohead would recognize. Including her actual use of the word ditto.) . . .
"Palin will be judged to be 'ready' in four years. George Will and David Brooks and Peggy Noonan will all swoon over her once more. Ok, maybe not George Will. . . . Republicans tend to pick the next guy in line. Strangely enough, the next guy in line is now Sarah Palin, by virtue of her being the VP nominee this year. She will have the benefit of being both an outsider candidate and the natural heir to the nomination; indeed, the only candidate who will have experience in a general election campaign."
You betcha.
Former GOP operative Patrick Ruffini sees a Lazarus scenario in a post titled "Is Sarah Palin the Right's Howard Dean?" (who bounced back from 2004 to become DNC chairman):
"Everyone remembers Howard Dean for the 'scream' but I think his example provides a context in which Sarah Palin could lose the election, but ultimately win the party and pave the way for a conservative victory in the future more meaningful than McCain-Palin '08 would be.
"I'm rooting for Sarah Palin, and in temperament she is nothing like Dean . . .
"Who seems to be the flashpoint in this elite-grassroots war currently raging in the GOP? Like Dean, it's Sarah Palin.
"Yet, there is a big risk coming up in 15 days. If McCain-Palin loses, and the conventional wisdom hardens that Palin was a big part of the reason for it, the GOP could will learn the wrong lessons from 2008. It will be said that McCain should have picked an uninspiring establishment VP. If we listen to Brooks, Noonan, and Frum, the next time out, the establishment will be emboldened in its natural distrust of happy warrior populists like Palin who bring their own political base to the table . . .
"If instead the lesson of Palin is that we need to pick safe, uninspiring candidates (who will get utterly clobbered by Obama's $1 billion+ re-election campaign, btw) who don't offend Christopher Buckley, then I fear we are in for a long winter indeed."
We're certainly in for a long winter of feuding pundits unless McCain-Palin pulls it out.
David Corn, still focused for some reason on 2008, is less generous:
"My rough survey of the Rs and conservatives I have encountered on the street, at political events, and in green rooms at TV studios is that about one half to two-thirds will admit they believe is that Palin is either a misguided error on McCain's part that can be overcome or an act of blatant misjudgment that has led to a freakin' disaster . . .
"The RNC has done a lot more than put lipstick on a pig. It's been dressing up an albatross.
"Should McCain lose on November 4, I wonder if he will ever acknowledge that Palin was a major part of his downfall."
In the Washington Examiner, Mark Tapscott blames the party bigwigs for the fashion disaster:
"Every time I think the campaign professionals at the Republican National Committee can't possibly do anything else to sink the party, they do something else that simply defies logical explanation. Like taking a candidate who epitomizes Middle American values and spending $150,000 to dress her up in Saks Fifth Avenue finery.
"Apparently, they just couldn't stand the thought of a GOP candidate for vice president actually wearing the same clothes on the campaign trail that she wears in real life. No, they had to go make her look like . . . one of them.
"Did nobody over there think it through and realize doing this would hand Obama and the Democrats the last perfect piece of evidence of how out of touch Republicans are with the real world?"
CNN's Campbell Brown, who as I noted the other day has drawn the wrath of the McCain campaign, says it's fine for the RNC to pay for Palin's wardrobe and stylists:
"Women get scrutinized based on appearance far more than men. And look, I speak from experience here. When I wear a bad outfit on the air, I get viewer email complaining about it. A lot of email. Seriously. When Wolf Blitzer wears a not-so-great tie, how much email do you think he gets?
"My point is for women unfortunately appearance is part of the job. If Wolf or Anderson shows up on the air without make-up, you think you would even notice? I show up without make-up? Trust me, you'll notice."
This just in. "SNL" costume designer says Palin wanted to wear nicer outfits: "I had to get her to understand why she needed to wear the same thing as Tina [Fey]. We had gone off and created it for the first time a month ago, a look we identified as Sarah Palin. She had moved on in her own image of herself."
In her first newspaper interview, Palin tells the Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman that the clothing story has been distorted:
" 'That whole thing is just, bad!' she said. 'Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. It's kind of painful to be criticized for something when all the facts are not out there and are not reported,' said Palin, saying the clothes are not worth $150,000 and were bought for the Republican National Convention. Still, she has been wearing pricey clothes at campaign events this fall. She said they will be given back, auctioned off or sent to charity. Most of them, she said, haven't even left the belly of her campaign plane."
Most polls (except for the AP) still favor Obama:
"Senator Barack Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls.
"Underscoring the building strength of Mr. Obama's candidacy in the final phase of the campaign, he was ahead of Mr. McCain among various groups that voted for Mr. Bush four years ago: those with incomes greater than $50,000 a year; married women; suburbanites; white Catholics, and is even competitive among white men -- a group that has not voted for a Democrat over a Republican since 1972, when pollsters began surveying people after they voted."
The NYT margin: 52-39 Obama. Oh, and Bush is at 22.
To no one's surprise, the Times endorses Obama.
Salon looks at the year's media misfires, which is another way of saying how the McCain campaign blew it. In fact, Mike Madden and Walter Shapiro lead off with " The Cult of Sarah Palin":
"McCain's choice of a running mate on the eve of the Republican National Convention set off a wave of emotions that quickly veered from 'Sarah Who?' to 'Sarah Wow!' Even amid the initial gooey-eyed gush, there were dangerous signs that the McCain team had done a sloppy job in researching her background. But the boffo convention speech, the giddy poll numbers and Palin's rock-star crowds gave rise to half-baked theories about the veep pick's ability to transform the presidential race and even snare a chunk of the feminist vote. After the disastrous Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric interviews, however, the Palin pick seemed less a moose-hunter's delight and more like stale (Dan) Quayle. A Pew Research Center national poll released this week found that 49 percent of voters now hold negative opinions about Palin, compared to 32 percent voting thumbs down in mid-September. The Pew survey discovered that a stunning 60 percent of all women under the age of 50 currently have negative feelings about Palin.
" Steve Schmidt Is a Genius. When McCain took the lead after the GOP convention in many national polls, the immediate reaction was to lionize top strategist Steve Schmidt for imposing order and discipline on the unruly campaign. But, in truth, Schmidt's ascension probably only intensified a problem that has dogged McCain from the outset -- a focus on day-to-day tactics over long-term strategy and a coherent rationale for the campaign. McCain often dominated the daily news cycle, but failed to dominate the hearts and minds of voters. Many in the Obama campaign believe that the turning point in the race came when McCain dramatically suspended his campaign on the eve of the first debate in order to fly to Washington to join in the ineffectual dithering over the economic crisis. Schmidt's war-room mentality (he ran the rapid-response team for the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004) may have been ill-suited for a political year when McCain needed a Big Idea to compete with Obama . . .
" The Hillary Holdouts Will Never Come Back. During July and August, just about the easiest way to get on television was to announce that you were an angry Hillary voter who would never, ever support Obama. Of course, political science studies dating back three decades show that party loyalty invariably trumps hurt feelings by the time November rolls around. Guess what? For all the PUMA nonsense that filled the airwaves over the summer, the Pew Research Center poll this week shows that Obama is beating McCain by a 91-to-5-percent margin among self-identified Democrats. So while independent-minded blue-collar voters who may have opted for Clinton in the primary are still being wooed by the Obama campaign in states like Pennsylvania, virtually all the dyed-in-the-wool Democrats have (surprise!) returned to the fold."
I kept saying at the time that of course most Hillary voters wouldn't defect to McCain. But the media loved that story line.
Former McCain 2000 adviser Mike Murphy offers the RNC some "possible spin lines" for Neiman Marcusgate:
"What you sneering critics in the liberal MSM fail to see here is . . . a Jobs Program! Saks floorwalkers, cashiers, a team of sweating porters to haul the merchandise from the store to the motorcade . . . chiropractors to treat those porters. Sarah Palin knows how to create jobs!
"Still cheaper than Mitt Romney's hair products. We're saving money here . . .
"William Ayers is a terrorist!
"New ad slogan: 'Clothes for Gov. Palin? $150,000. Time machine to go back two months to late August and ask what the Hell were Schmidt and Davis thinking when they cooked up this idea and sold it to McCain? Priceless.' "
Of course, as Adam Nagourney notes here, Murphy gave me rare behind-the-scenes access during the 2000 campaign and is not averse to self-promotion. But he's a media analyst now and is supposed to be candid.
Could things have been different if Murphy had worked for Mac instead of NBC and Time? The New Republic's Jason Zengerle ponders:
"What's been most riveting about Murphy's criticism of McCain has been the thread of regret that's run through it. Prior to the denouement this past summer, Murphy was presumably offering these criticisms to McCain in private; the two men were known to talk frequently (much to the consternation of some members of the McCain campaign). But, according to one Murphy friend, Murphy hasn't spoken with McCain since July -- 'either because McCain stopped calling him, or because Schmidt confiscated McCain's cell phone.' So, instead, Murphy seems to be trying to communicate with McCain through his TV appearances and blog posts -- which, as Murphy himself seems to recognize, is a doomed effort. 'My advice, as usual,' he wrote in a long blog post offering McCain some tips before the final debate, 'is probably the opposite of what his people are advising him.' . . .
"Reading and watching Murphy, you get the sense that he'd happily trade the professional accolades for the personal satisfaction of having worked for McCain this one last time."
Look at this latest Obama broadside against the problems that piled up during the Bush years:
"Spending, the conduct of the war in Iraq for years, growth in the size of government, larger than any time since the Great Society, laying a $10 trillion debt on future generations of America, owing $500 billion to China, obviously, failure to both enforce and modernize the [financial] regulatory agencies that were designed for the 1930s and certainly not for the 21st century, failure to address the issue of climate change seriously."
Oh wait -- that's McCain, talking to the Washington Times. Isn't that what Palin accused Biden of, looking backward?
There is one group that doesn't think Obama is a lock:
"Two weeks out, only the Democrats in Washington think Obama might not win," says Tucker Carlson. "That's not the result of a scientific study, but instead the conclusion I've reached after many lunches, dinners and elevator rides with DC Democrats. Against all evidence, a good number of them have convinced themselves that John McCain is going to be the next president.
"Partly this is superstition, like throwing salt over your shoulder when you spill the shaker: predictions are bad luck. But it's also the voice of experience . . .
"Give them a few drinks and many Democrats make remarkably self-loathing noises: we're disorganized, our interest groups are out of control, the rest of the country hates us. To these Democrats, Obama isn't really winning; the Republicans are losing. They fear fate could intervene at the last minute to change the course of the election . . .
"No one's more confident in Republican efficiency than Democrats. It's almost touching, and totally unwarranted. In real life, there are no WMD: Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. The operation is as disjointed as it looks."
You mean the October surprise is no surprise? Who knew?
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USA TODAY
October 23, 2008 Thursday
Correction Appended
FINAL EDITION
Spending $5.3B on political races looks scary, but it could be worse;
The likely tally for Halloween: $6B
BYLINE: Fredreka Schouten
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1A
LENGTH: 433 words
WASHINGTON -- The campaign to elect a new president and members of Congress is on pace to hit an unprecedented $5.3 billion, the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics said Wednesday.
The money raised and spent by candidates, parties and outside groups on campaigning, advertising, conventions and other political activities in this election has shattered records.
But the total, while an eye-popping figure, pales compared with other spending. For example, it's less than the nearly $6 billion the National Retail Federation estimates Americans will shell out for Halloween next week.
The cost of the presidential race alone -- a record $2.4 billion -- is less than the $2.6 billion Coca-Cola spent on advertising in 2006. The old record for White House campaign spending was $1.6 billion, set in 2004.
"This is a relatively small investment when you consider all the things that are far less important but on which we spend far more money," said Sheila Krumholz, the center's executive director. "But in terms of political finance, these numbers are staggering."
All White House contenders have collected $1.5 billion in contributions since fundraising formally kicked off in January 2007. That's nearly double the haul of presidential candidates four years ago.
"The jury is out on whether all this spending is effective," said Kenneth Cooper, a former Federal Election Commission official and a campaign-finance expert. "There's so much money flooding the airwaves that there's a real question as to whether or not it's moved voters."
Other trends:
*The economy might be in meltdown, but employees in finance, insurance and real estate companies dominate political giving, contributing more than $370 million. Employees at Goldman Sachs and the company's political action committee top the corporate-giving list with $5 million, the center found.
*Democrats, who have outraised Republicans this election season, are on track to collect nearly $6 out of every $10 raised. Four years ago, the party split was about even.
*Outside political groups, known as 527s for the section of the tax code under which they operate, play a smaller role. The groups that focus on federal races have reported $424 million in fundraising to the IRS, a 12% decrease from 2004.
This year's heavy spending means voters in hotly contested states are inundated.
Carmen Cabrera, who runs a general store in Asheville, N.C., is overwhelmed. Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are campaigning hard there for the White House. "Every other commercial is about politics," she said.
"I'll be glad when it's all over."
LOAD-DATE: October 28, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: October 27, 2008
CORRECTION: A former Federal Election Commission official was misidentified in a 1A story about political spending on Thursday. He is Kent Cooper.
GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, Color, Julie Snider, USA TODAY, Source: Center for Responsive Politics (Chart)
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USA TODAY
October 23, 2008 Thursday
Correction Appended
FINAL EDITION
How to look like 150,000 bucks;
Palin's spree turns heads left and right
BYLINE: Olivia Barker
SECTION: LIFE; Pg. 3D
LENGTH: 463 words
The total bill might make Joe Six-Pack spew his brew, but to image experts, the $150,000 that the Republican National Committee has spent on wardrobing Sarah Palin since she was tapped as the GOP's vice presidential candidate isn't shocking -- in fact, it's arguably necessary.
"When you think about costumes for literally every day of the week, for a couple-month period, it's not outrageous," says Susan Scafidi, who teaches fashion law at Fordham Law School. As long as the outfits are worn for campaigning only and not for personal use, it's a "perfectly legal" item on the RNC budget, Scafidi says. (The clothing is destined for charity post-election, according to the McCain campaign.)
What is shocking, Scafidi says, is the context. "When you see that number in the middle of a credit crunch" and consider the irony of "spending enormous amounts to reach ordinary people" for whom $150,000 is probably more than a year's salary, the spree is "a political disaster."
The expense "doesn't seem frivolous to me," says Simon Doonan, creative director at Barneys, a stop on Palin's shopping trip. (The tally at the company's New York store: $789.72, according to Politico, which broke the story.) In her role, "you don't have to be high fashion, but you have to be elegantly dressed. "
Dressing to impress costs an arm and a well-tailored pantleg, says Amy Tara Koch, who analyzes the art of power dressing on her Inc. blog. Barack Obama, for instance, has a hankering for Hart Schaffner Marx suits, which go for $1,500 in department stores. "If you're in the position of handling the economy" -- a top task for next term -- "you should always overdress," she says. "You really need to reflect seriousness of task at hand."
And until recently, Palin wasn't impressing, Koch says. "She was a badly coiffed deer in the headlights. She looked like she was straight out of a LensCrafters ad. She did not look like a power player. She looked very peripheral." Now "she looks more acceptable."
But looking polished, professional and even vice presidential doesn't require a college tuition budget, counters Scafidi. "There's a JC Penney in almost every mall in every small town in the 'real America' as (Palin) puts it. So why did she have to leave it? At least it would have been image-consistent. "
What $150,000 buys
At Target you could buy every piece in designer Isaac Mizrahi's 20-look fall collection (that includes more than 70 items of apparel from shoes to clothes) for yourself and about 60 of your friends.
At Nordstrom you could buy 51 BOSS Black Suits for $1,445 each and 83 Lafayette 148 New York suits at $896 each.
At Neiman Marcus you could buy eight $5,990 Oscar de la Renta dresses, 29 pairs of Manolo Blahnik boots (at $1,695 each) and 15 Gucci bags (at $3,295 each).
LOAD-DATE: October 28, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: October 24, 2008
CORRECTION: A story Thursday on page 3D was unclear in characterizing the money the Republican National Committee spent for Sarah Palin's campaign wardrobe. The $150,000 the committee spent was for both Palin and her family.
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USA TODAY
October 23, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
N.M. teams realize every vote counts;
State sees flurry of volunteers working to mobilize supporters
BYLINE: John Fritze
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 7A
LENGTH: 811 words
ALBUQUERQUE -- In this battleground state, Jennifer Chadwell-Feld is at war.
Chadwell-Feld, 58, dials voters from a small warehouse, gauging support for Republican presidential nominee John McCain and reminding them a vote Nov. 4 could be crucial in one of the nation's tightest swing states.
"Since you support McCain, would you be willing to volunteer for the campaign?" the volunteer says and records the answers, which will be entered into a computer. "Can we get you a yard sign?"
In New Mexico, where President Bush eked out a win in 2004 by fewer than 6,000 votes, the race between McCain and Democrat Barack Obama may depend as much on volunteers as any stump speech or television ad by the candidates.
Nearly 127,000 New Mexicans have registered to vote in the past year -- a 12% increase -- state election data show. Volunteers are engaged in a grass-roots effort to ensure supporters turn out to vote.
"We're just seeing intense mobilization efforts," says Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico. "We've already had a lot of early voting turnout."
Generating votes
Energized by the idea that every vote may count, Jesse Cresdin, 21, an Obama volunteer, moves quickly through a neighborhood in Las Vegas, N.M. Obama is the first candidate he can recall opening an office in town, he says.
Obama has 39 campaign offices statewide, according to his campaign. McCain has 24, the state Republican Party says, but that includes GOP county offices.
"We're just making sure that everybody ... is registered to vote," Cresdin, clipboard in hand, tells Alfred Marquez, 31, before handing him an "Obamanos" sticker, a play on Obama's name and the Spanish word vamonos, "let's go."
The get-out-the-vote effort was a major component of the 2004 presidential election, says Donald Green, a political science professor at Yale University. This year, as battle lines harden, campaigns rely more on those mobilization tactics, he says.
Volunteers call to ensure a voter supports their candidate. If the voter does, the volunteers follow up with phone calls and personal visits. Both campaigns keep computerized lists of the people they contact. About a week before Election Day, campaigns check in to make sure the voter turns out.
"Part of the reason you see resources shifting each election toward the ground game is that the ground is a steady investment, whereas (advertising) is hit-or-miss," says Green, co-author of the book Get Out the Vote! "Its main advantage is that it generates votes at a fairly reliable pace."
Republicans mastered using marketing databases to target likely supporters and also have had members of certain demographics -- outdoorsmen, for instance -- call other members of that group. Democrats have adopted many of the same tactics, Green says. A well-organized get-out-the-vote effort can swing an election 3 percentage points, he says.
That slim advantage could be key in New Mexico, which supported Bush in 2004 but Al Gore -- by 366 votes -- in 2000. An Albuquerque Journal poll released Oct. 5 showed Obama with a 5-percentage-point lead.
In 2004, Bush rallied voters in rural portions of the state, says Joe Monahan, who runs joemonahan.com. a political blog. That effort helped Republicans offset gains Democrats made in Albuquerque and other cities. This year, Monahan says, McCain is taking a similar path. "If he's going to win New Mexico, he's going to try to do it the same way George Bush did, a surge in the south," he says.
'A critical election'
Southern New Mexico is sparsely populated and defined by vast prairies. The region tends to support Republicans, past election results show. The north, the base of the Rocky Mountains, is a Democratic stronghold.
Forty-four percent of residents identified themselves as Hispanic in 2006, and nearly 10% said they are American Indian.
For Melanie Wood, 24, the state's battleground status compelled her to get involved. She suspended her studies and signed up to intern with the Obama campaign, working to register fellow students at the University of New Mexico.
Both parties emphasize absentee voting, which began Oct. 7 in New Mexico, and Wood says she helped send out 175,000 vote-by-mail applications. Volunteers follow up with those voters to make sure they turn in those applications.
"It's definitely something that I felt like I needed to do work for, not just vote in," Wood says.
In Roswell, about 170 miles southeast of Albuquerque, Jeanette Schaffer, 44, is equally committed, but to McCain. She walked in to the campaign headquarters on Main Street in late September and has been calling voters ever since. It was the first time she volunteered for a campaign, she says.
"I'll do whatever they need me to do because I just think this is such a critical election," Schaffer says between phone calls. "I'm definitely going to make myself available."
LOAD-DATE: October 23, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, B/W, Carlos Roig and Dave Merrill, USA TODAY, Sources: Census Bureau (2007)
USA TODAY research
Almanac of American Politics (Chart)
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PHOTO, B/W, Shari Vialpando, Las Cruces Sun-News, via AP
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The Washington Post
October 23, 2008 Thursday
Met 2 Edition
Jock the Vote: NBA Players Raise Their Voices;
Defying Political Convention, Some Star Athletes Choose Sides in Presidential Race
BYLINE: Michael Lee; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: SPORTS; Pg. E01
LENGTH: 1060 words
Etan Thomas emerged from the Washington Wizards' locker room at Verizon Center this week looking like a walking campaign advertisement. He wore a black T-shirt adorned with a picture of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and the words "Yes We Can" in bright gold lettering.
It's not uncommon for the Wizards center to publicly express his political leanings. An outspoken opponent of the Iraq war since it began, Thomas has participated in several Democratic campaign events, including attending the party's convention in Denver and teaming with Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean at voter registration rallies in Northern Virginia.
But Thomas, 30, has discovered that during this presidential campaign he is one of several NBA players taking an active role. "Everybody knows where I stand, but it's great to see other players involved," Thomas said. "The guys I admire did that. The Jim Browns, the Kareem [Abdul-Jabbar]s, the Muhammad Alis. They used their position as a platform. Now, a lot of different athletes are coming out."
This presidential election, featuring an African American nominee for president and a female nominee for vice president, has prompted even NBA players, known for their political apathy in recent years, to take interest.
"Guys are paying attention to what's going on in the world, and I think that many players realize the impact our voice can have," said Los Angeles Clippers point guard Baron Davis, an Obama supporter, who recently spoke at a "Women for Obama" rally in Los Angeles. "We should take it upon ourselves to educate and inspire others about issues that are important to us. We shouldn't wait for someone else to stand up and try to make a difference."
Support for Obama is far from unanimous around the league. Spencer Hawes, a second-year center with the Sacramento Kings, created a Facebook page for fans of conservative pundit Ann Coulter and had a bumper sticker on his car in high school that read, "God Bless George W. Bush." Hawes, 20, said he is backing Republican nominee John McCain and is excited about voting for president for the first time. Hawes hasn't campaigned on behalf of McCain but said, "but I'd be ready and willing if I was asked."
But most players interviewed for this story said they were backing Obama.
Los Angeles Lakers guard Derek Fisher and New York Knicks point guard Chris Duhon were also at the Democratic convention in Denver. Duhon, a teammate of Obama personal aide Reggie Love at Duke, attended the final presidential debate between Obama and McCain at Hofstra University last week.
New Orleans Hornets point guard Chris Paul encouraged people to vote in a Web commercial for the Obama campaign-sponsored Web site. Detroit Pistons guard Chauncey Billups introduced Obama at a rally in Michigan. Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless and Channing Frye of the Portland Trail Blazers spoke on behalf of Obama at a voter registration drive at Portland State University.
Cleveland Cavaliers star LeBron James donated $20,000 to the Democratic White House Victory Fund, a joint committee set up by Obama and the Democratic Party for the presidential race, and gave the Illinois senator an autographed basketball when both appeared on CBS's "Late Night With David Letterman" in September. James recently participated in a voter registration rally in Cleveland with hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons and told an adoring crowd, "All of us want change."
Although the NBA is predominantly African American, the Wizards' Thomas said the enthusiasm for Obama has less to do with him being black than with his views on the economy, health care and education. Obama "is . . . laying out the plans. He's not talking around the issues. There is a sense that things will be different."
Political activism among athletes today doesn't come close to that of the 1960s and 1970s, but it does contrast with the past 20 years, when athletes often chose not to take a stand or share their beliefs for fear of ridicule or financial hits.
In the early 1990s, Michael Jordan famously refused to publicly support Harvey Gantt, a black Democrat running against Republican Jesse Helms in a North Carolina U.S. Senate race, saying, "Republicans buy sneakers, too." Jordan eventually donated money to Gantt, and also contributed to the presidential campaigns of Bill Bradley in 2000 and Obama.
Steve Nash sparked a minor controversy when he showed up at the 2003 All-Star Game in Atlanta wearing a T-shirt that read, "No War. Shoot for Peace." Orlando Magic center Adonal Foyle, another critic of the Iraq war, said athletes shouldn't be afraid to share their political views.
"There is some risk, there is no doubt about that, but I think that's part of the responsibility," said Foyle, 33, who in 2001 founded Democracy Matters, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that works on campaign finance reform. "Saying what you think is going to come with a certain amount of people being mad at you, but so what? People are mad at you when you beat them at a basketball game anyway. They boo you anyway. Really, what has changed? I think it all depends on how you do it."
Foyle, a native of St. Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, recently became a U.S. citizen and plans to vote for Obama. "This is truly a remarkable time to be involved in politics. I feel absolutely honored and special to be voting at this particular juncture," Foyle said.
The political climate has led to debates in locker rooms around the league. "Those are the hot topics because that's where all the news is from," Hawes, who is white, said, adding that he takes some heat from teammates for his views. "You see the 'Saturday Night Live' sketches. It's not really just politics right now. It's become intertwined with pop culture as a whole."
However, some players still refuse to get excited about the election. "People get sour-faced when you talk about politics and voting," said Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas, adding that he doesn't plan to vote.
Arenas, who is slated to earn $14.5 million this season after signing a six-year, $111 million contract this past summer to remain with the Wizards, said he is fearful that both candidates will raise his taxes.
"The first Bush said he wasn't going to tax nobody," Arenas said. "It doesn't really matter who the president is. They say whatever they need to say to get in office."
LOAD-DATE: October 23, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Rocky Widner -- Nbae Via Getty Images; Kings' Spencer Hawes backs John McCain and, at age 20, will vote for president for the first time.
IMAGE; By Jahi Chikwendiu -- The Washington Post; Wizards' Etan Thomas supports Barack Obama and attended the Democratic convention in Denver.
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The Washington Post
October 23, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
In Ads, GOP Stresses Obama's Ties to Chicago Developer;
But Nominee's Relationship With Rezko Appears to Be Having Little Impact on Voters, Polls Find
BYLINE: Joe Stephens; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 989 words
In recent weeks, Republicans launched a series of commercials designed to highlight what they consider a serious ethical lapse by Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama: his relationship with Chicago developer Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a longtime donor, former fundraiser and, now, convicted felon.
Bankrolled by rival John McCain's campaign and the Republican National Committee, the ads allege that Rezko tutored Obama in the ways of shady politics and that Obama rewarded Rezko with millions in tax money.
Yet the emphasis on Obama's friendship with Rezko has had little impact on voters, polling data show, even after Rezko returned to the headlines this month. On Oct. 8, prosecutors asked a federal judge to delay his sentencing on 16 counts of fraud, money laundering and abetting bribery while "the parties engage in discussions." Analysts said that probably means that Rezko is cooperating with the widespread investigation of influence-peddling in Illinois.
The most direct indication that Rezko has not seriously damaged Obama's image was in a New York Times-CBS News poll last week that showed that among the 44 percent who said they were bothered by "anything" to do with Obama's background or past associations, one respondent mentioned Rezko.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that Obama held a 10-point advantage over McCain on the question of which candidate has higher personal and ethical standards. A poll earlier in the week had the senator from Illinois eight points up as the more honest and trustworthy candidate.
Obama has weathered repeated efforts to make Rezko an issue. During the Democratic primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) called Rezko a "slum landlord." Obama's foes have described his connections to Rezko as at odds with the candidate's reformer image.
"This relationship undercuts the entire message of Obama's career and campaign," said Danny Diaz, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
But Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said Obama has "led the fight for ethics reform and worked to reduce the influence of money over the political process."
No evidence surfaced in Rezko's long federal trial to suggest any wrongdoing by Obama, but the two have a long history. Over the course of Obama's political career, Rezko raised contributions for him, introduced him to powerful aldermen and listened when Obama recommended a friend for a job. Rezko even offered expert real estate advice when Obama bought an expensive house on Chicago's South Side.
The two met in the early 1990s. Obama has said he was finishing Harvard Law School when Rezko and his business associates first contacted him about a job possibility in development.
David Brint, then-executive vice president at Rezmar, Rezko's development company, said he called Obama after he was named the first black president of the Harvard Law Review and later introduced him to Rezko.
When Obama entered politics a few years later, records listed three contributions on his first day of fundraising for his Illinois Senate bid. Two, totaling $2,000, came from Rezko's food company and an unincorporated business at the same address. Obama has estimated that Rezko personally raised 10 to 15 percent of his funds.
"At that stage in his life, Barack was looking for people who were willing to help him. And Tony was willing to help him." said Anthony Licata, a Chicago lawyer and longtime Rezko acquaintance.
Over the next decade, Rezko contributed or helped raise as much as $250,000 for Obama. (Obama's campaigns now have donated to charity $159,000 in contributions linked to Rezko. Rezko has not donated to, or raised money for, Obama's presidential campaign, officials said.)
Obama said he had performed no favors for Rezko. Last year, the Chicago Sun-Times discovered a 1998 letter from Obama urging local officials to fund a senior living project proposed by a firm controlled by Rezko and a partner. The campaign and Rezko's attorney later said that Rezko did not request the letter.
Over time, Rezko and Obama met socially. Obama told reporters that he and his wife, Michelle, once visited the Rezko home on Lake Geneva in Wisconsin and that the two couples dined together at a Chicago restaurant.
Rezko, a native of Syria, has an impressive life story, Brint said.
"He came over here, he didn't speak any English," he said. "He built strong relationships, people trusted him."
Rezko also raised money for Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and screened candidates for posts in his administration. Obama said he had "formal discussions" with Rezko about a job for Eric Whitaker, a physician and friend. In 2003, Blagojevich named Whitaker director of the Illinois Department of Public Health.
Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004 and the next year decided to buy a house in Chicago priced at $1.95 million. He later said that Rezko toured the home and advised him to buy it. Around the same time, Rezko's name was surfacing in connection with reports about questionable dealings in local government.
In June 2005, Obama and his wife closed on the house for $300,000 less than the asking price. That same day, in what Obama has said was an independent transaction, Rezko's wife, Rita, bought a lot that served as the house's side yard for the full asking price of $625,000.
In January 2006, Rita Rezko sold the Obamas one-sixth of the lot for $104,000, one-sixth of the original purchase price. Obama acknowledged later that he "should have seen some red flags" in making the purchase.
In October 2006, federal authorities culminated their three-year investigation of the Illinois government. Rezko's trial, which began in March, detailed how he used political influence to collect kickbacks from companies seeking state business.
In a statement, Obama said: "This isn't the Tony Rezko I knew." Rezko's next hearing is set for Dec. 16.
Polling editor Jon Cohen and research editor Alice Crites contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 23, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 23, 2008 Thursday 2:00 PM EST
Celebritology Live: Sarah Palin Must Be a Celeb, Cuz We Can't Stop Talking About Her;
You've Been Served... a Heaping Plate of Gossip
BYLINE: Liz Kelly, washingtonpost.com Celebritology Blogger, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4320 words
HIGHLIGHT: When stars shave their heads, couch-jump, spend countless minutes in jail, commit a fashion faux pas and/or other random acts of ego-inspired inanity, washingtonpost.com Celebritology blogger Liz Kelly is on the job. Every weekday, Liz shares the buzz, offers perspective and provides crucial links to juicy alternate news sources and, of course, takes your reaction in her daily blog.
When stars shave their heads, couch-jump, spend countless minutes in jail, commit a fashion faux pas and/or other random acts of ego-inspired inanity, washingtonpost.com Celebritology blogger Liz Kelly is on the job. Every weekday, Liz shares the buzz, offers perspective and provides crucial links to juicy alternate news sources and, of course, takes your reaction in her daily blog.
Join Liz LIVE every Thursday at 2 p.m. ET to gab about the latest celebrity pairings (and splittings), rising stars (and falling ones), and get the scoop on the latest gossip making waves across the Web.
In her pre-celeb obsessed days (as if!), Liz ran washingtonpost.com's Discussions section, where she enjoyed talking to really interesting people -- sometimes even Post reporters -- on the phone. She still produces Pulitzer-prize winner Gene Weingarten's weekly Chatological Humor discussion and serves as co-proprietress of post.com's "Lost" Central.
Celebritology Live Archive
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Liz Kelly: Afternoon and welcome back to the chat. Lots of excitement in blog land today as the site switched us over to only allow comments from registered users. It's working for some, not for others and generally causing mayhem. We held off on posting today's main item -- a creative captioning pic -- because of the switch and its hiccups, but we're tired of waiting. Editor Nancy will post it momentarily. I'll let you know. It's a slowish day in celeb news, though producer Rocci may have some headlines to share below. I did, tho, like this pic of Spencer Pratt posted to Us Weekly today. He's carrying his gun and wearing a "Palin For VP" t-shirt. Nice. Let's get started...
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Team Shatner!: I say anyone who can keep carrying a grudge this long, that gets renewed with perceived slights over a wedding he probably wouldn't go to anyway, is my kind of feisty!
Liz Kelly: Amen. I'm tempted to cast aspersions on Shatner in the hopes that he'll aim his indignation in my general direction.
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Costumery: Have you ever dressed the charming Page in a doggie Halloween costume?
Liz Kelly: I have, actually. Here she is as Katie Couric a couple of years ago.
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Liz Kelly: Oopsy -- Here's that Spencer Pratt pic.
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Hockey Mom: I'd ask a question, but I'm too busy shopping at Saks!
Liz Kelly: Well, save some Dolce for the rest of us.
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Cleveland Park, NW, Washington, D.C. - Will the tabs ever tire of Aniston?: A new Angelina movie, another round of Brad-Angie-Jen heartbreak/betrayal stories in the tabs. Yawn. Does anyone out there really care anymore? It this point it seems about as fresh as Eddie Fisher leaving Debbie Reynolds for Liz Taylor. Does this story still move issues off the stands?
Liz Kelly: It seems that a large contingent of interested parties never tire of the "Jen was wronged" story. I'm not saying she wasn't, just that there are some folks out there who still can't let a mention of Angelina Jolie's name pass without commenting on it. Though it looks like there's enough Jen news to talk about without bringing Angie into it.
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GOOP must die!: Just knowing it exists makes me want to yank out my hair. Maybe we should just make the prisoners at Gitmo read it? Ugh
Liz Kelly: I had a friend write me today -- a friend who I admire and look up to, who is smart, worldly and a published author -- to ask, "Is it depressing that I secretly like Goop? I kind of want to make her recipes." She also sent along this take on Gwynnie's latest post.
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Flat-front pants!: I was at Nordstrom Rack at Potomac Mills this week, and I was delighted to see a rack of men's dress pants labeled "Flat-Front." There were many more there than at a regular Nordstrom.
Liz Kelly: That's nice that they're clearly guiding men to them. I know that will make the shopping experience that much easier.
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Austin, Tex.: I'm really incensed over SNL's decision to have Sarah Palin on the show. I understand featuring candidates from both parties, but Palin's brand of vitriol and divisiveness is too much. I declared I would never watch the show again, despite the fact that my wife and I can hold entire conversations comprising nothing but lines from SNL skits. Can Tina Fey talk me out of my declaration? It may seem stupid, but I'm pretty distraught about this.
Liz Kelly: Really? I watched Saturday's Palin spots and I don't think they did anything to sway voters already dead set against her or dissuade those firmly in her camp. And "SNL" hardly gave her a platform for furthering her message which, some would argue, has definitely been on the negative end of the spectrum of late. In fact, I thought the news segment -- the Amy Poehler rap -- was downright biting to Palin, yet she sat there and took it. It was as if she was oblivious to the fact that we weren't laughing with her, but at her. I'll add another commenter's take next...
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Washington, D.C.: Tina, you are very funny in general, but I believe your portrayal of Gov. Palin has been a disservice to her and to McCain's campaign. Gov. Palin is not a professional politician, like many other politicans that have been parodied by SNL. I believe that your portrayal has helped to put forth this constructed image -- now mainstream narrative -- that Gov. Palin is "ditsy," unintelligent, and unready to lead. I believe these are unfair characteristics, and I don't believe that Gov. Palin has been given a fair chance to prove herself to the national audience. If my concerns are reflective not only of conservatives, but perhaps of a broader audience, then would you be somewhat concerned of the impact that your portrayal has had on the narrative of this campaign?
Thanks for your time.
Liz Kelly: I appreciate the sentiment, but I'm not sure Tina Fey did any more than Charlie Gibson or Katie Couric to convey the impression that Gov. Palin is ditsy.
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Tinseltown: John Grogan mentioned in yesterday's chat that Jennifer Aniston was very nice to him and his family. Does that count for anything?
washingtonpost.com: Book World Discussion With John Grogan (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 22)
Liz Kelly: Well, it makes sense that she'd be nice to the guy on whom one of her upcoming movies is based. But I've never heard it mentioned that Aniston was anything other than pleasant.
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Office of the Vice President, undisclosed location: You forgot to mention the beer that Spencer Pratt was carrying. You know, beer and guns don't always mix well.
Liz Kelly: Listen, he's just trying to emulate Joe Six Pack.
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Wardrobe mistress: Liz, since you traffic in celebrities, where do you purchase your wardrobe items? (i.e., what does one wear to ComicCon?)Won't ask about your clothing budget since I assume The Post is not as generous as the RNC.
Liz Kelly: I shop everything from H&M to Neiman Marcus and, like many other average Americans, know a thing or two about credit card debt.
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Tralfamad, Ore.: Did anybody not predict a Madonna-Ritchie break-up? Who gets custody of Madge's fake British accent?
Liz Kelly: Since Paris Hilton is reportedly contemplating a move to England, I believe she'd be the rightful heir.
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Halloween costumes:: So what celebrity can I be for Halloween (besides Sarah Palin)? My husband informs me that my first choice -- Britney with a half-shaven head is soooo last year.
Liz Kelly: Why, thanks for asking. We'll have a special feature ready for Celebritology tomorrow that will help everyone prep a celeb-inspired Halloween costume.
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Bennington, Vt.: How does Tina Fey do her impression of Gov. Palin and not just burst out laughing?
Liz Kelly: She's a professional, that's how.
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Portland, Ore.: Liz,
I am going to try out Gwyneth Paltrow's insouciant carmelized black pepper chicken recipe this weekend. I'll let you know how it goes.
Liz Kelly: Just go light on the insouciance, heavy on the pepper.
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Austin, Tex.: I agree they didn't give her a platform. It was just the simple fact that she was invited for the sake of ratings. I dunno, you got to the meat of the matter since she was almost a non-participant and the rap def was biting. It just really bothered me for some reason. Thanks for the help!
Liz Kelly: I hear ya, Austin. But I think it would've been worse if SNL had not welcomed her. They would've been missing out on a big ratings opportunity and probably accused of being part of the liberal intelligentsia.
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Celebrity Rehab countdown!: Is it wrong I am counting the minutes until this awesome trainwreck of a show starts again tonite? Busey and Dr. Drew -- perfect together!
Liz Kelly: No, not wrong at all. Thanks for the reminder.
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Washington, D.C.: Is Gene lurking around the chat? I was wondering if he has the hots for Gov. Palin after seeing her in knee-high boots and a skirt. It looks like she has at least two pairs of boots. Maybe Gene will vote for McCain just to keep the boots around for 4 years.
Liz Kelly: Somewhow I doubt that.
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Methinks: Wow. What about that America Ferrara vs. Lindsay Lohan piece in the N.Y. Post. You go America! And in a real catfight, you know she's got Lindsay pinned to the mat.
With all the "news" coming in about the Guy Ritchie/Madonna breakup, have you thought about giving that stuff its own ongoing headline as you did with the Brit Watch when she was going all crazy?
Liz Kelly: My favorite part about that story, maybe Rocci can link (it was in the Morning Mix, Roc) was that America had accidentally rendered Lilo bottomless and Lilo cried. And, yes, I almost caved and gave Madge her own section this morning. If this divorce continues to build into a franchise, it will definitely happen.
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Liz Kelly: We have an official response from Weingarten as to his thoughts on Sarah Palin's boots and skirt look: "She has a great butt. And great butts are handsomely accessorized with boots and skirt." So there you have it.
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Gwyneth Paltrow's insouciant carmelized black pepper chicken recipe: You mean she's not vegetarian? Oh, the humanity!
Liz Kelly: She used to be a vegan, but I think I remember her saying she eased back into a more omnivorous diet when she was pregnant with Moose, or Moses or whatever that kid's name is.
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Philadelphia, Pa.: Wait a minute: Washington said "Gov. Palin is not a professional politician, like many other politicans that have been parodied by SNL."
Well, either Palin's a politician with experience to step up and lead from day one (as the vice president is supposed to be prepared to do), or she's not. And if she isn't, then why is she on the ticket and why are people claiming that she has more experience than Obama, or that her years as mayor of Wasilla (a truly hard-hitting occupation) and months as governor of Alaska (with a population smaller than many of our major cities) make her qualified? She can't be both qualified/experienced and "not a professional politician."
Liz Kelly: Right. I think that missive was an attempt at tongue-in-cheek humor. I'm thinking maybe the poster needs to go back to the drawing board.
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Jamie Lynn: Has her camp "officially" denied the pregnancy rumors?
Liz Kelly: Well, if Jamie Lynn's best friend -- who was the alleged source of the leak -- counts, then yes, they've effectively shut this one down.
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Sully: Liz -- I'm freaking out a little bit. I'm registered on washingtonpost.com, but it's telling me I'm not registered when I try to leave comments. What do I do? Is there a specific registration for comments?
Liz Kelly: Okay, this is such a McGyver fix, but according to other posters what works is this: Go to Achenblog and make like you're going to leave a comment. There you will be asked to sign in. Then, return to Celebritology and you should be golden. I love upgrades.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Spencer/Heidi need to just go away. He is carrying a gun AND beer while she is strolling next to him in her hooker shoes on a dirt road -- there is just so much wrong with this picture. Wait -- maybe she will trip and fall down the cliff and break a leg. Then Spencer would have to shoot her. All is right with the world.
Liz Kelly: Always looking for that silver lining, eh?
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Ferrerra vs. Lohan: Who do you side with?
I really WANT to like Lindsay. She was a good actress at one point. But I think those reports from the set sound very true. And America has shown no similar signs of trashiness.
Here's a crazy idea -- Lindsay should go to college. Expand her mind and her experience and maybe get back some of that intelligent promise she had at 14.
Liz Kelly: I completely agree. But here's why I'm still on team Lindsay: She's got a lot to overcome and didn't grow up with any kind of instructions on how to cope and get along with other people. Her parents are both publicity -- umm -- hounds who couldn't wait to make a buck from their offspring. Part of her entourage is apparently a sober chaperone, so that's a start. She's got to figure all this out for herself with little traditional familial support. So I don't begrudge her a few tantrums here and there.
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Gov. Pal, IN: Not for Halloween!
Attention Partygoers
Liz Kelly: That's fabulous. The costume shop owners I talked to this week were, of course, inundated with requests for Sarah Palin wigs. They've been taking go-go girl wigs and refashioning the hair into a bouffant.
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Port of Pain, Possum Island: Hi Liz! Without your blog, Jon Stewart, and Stephen Colbert, I think I'd be even crazier than I am. I have a question about Mr. Colbert's show. Behind his desk, it looks like there is a photo of Edward Norton. Do you know why this might be so? Are they buds? Thanks!
Liz Kelly: I have no idea. Maybe someone else out there knows?
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Oh, the humanity!: To Rocci: It's "Owe -sic], the humanity!" Please don't edit the lizards.
Liz Kelly: I will have a talk with Rocci and share the Celebritology glossary with him.
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The Lost trailer is up!: Hooray! I forgot how much I missed this show!
Dark UFO Spoilers: Lost
Liz Kelly: I know. And it looks good, dang it.
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Keanu and Claire, what's the deal: Couple or not? Weren't there rumors of an engagement yrs ago?
Keanu, Claire (Jezebel)
Liz Kelly: Well, according to recent reports they've been "dating."
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washingtonpost.com: I'm sorry that at times I'm not so hip as thee's audience.
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byool, IN: This morning the Lovely Mrs. byoolin asked me, "Where has Amy Winehouse been?" and I realized I didn't know the answer.
Should someone maybe go by her house and make sure she's not been dead on the floor for two weeks?
Liz Kelly: Good question. Amy has definitely been out of the spotlight lately. But this report did surface in London last week: The Grammy award-winning singer, 25, was filmed ranting about music officials and she screamed that Satan was giving her drugs. According to reports, the Back to Black star could only play two notes on her 3,000 guitar before smashing it up at the West London studio where she is trying to record her third album.
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Washington, D.C.: Spencer/Heidi. The book she is holding is upside down!
Liz Kelly: Well, as long as she's not reading it.
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Richmond, Va.: A poster on an earlier chat accused someone of being part of the cultural elite. I honest to God don't know what that means. Ballet vs. wrestling? Can you give me a thumb print description, like soccer mom, everyone can tell who that describes.
Liz Kelly: I'm not sure I even want to go there. So I'll deflect this question with a lame attempt at humor: For the purposes of Celebritology cosmos, I suppose it's "Rock of Love" vs. The Kennedy Center Honors.
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Lohan U: But if LiLo goes to college, she'll probably end up like many girls and experiment with alcohol and lesbianism and... oh, never mind.
Liz Kelly: Right -- see, she'll have a leg up on the rest of the freshman class. Oh, wait.
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Skirts and boots: I'm wearing the look today, sans hose/tights. (I hope my butt is up to the task.) I didn't much care for Palin's dark hose under black boots -- but since I don't have my own shopper and a K$150 $150K budget, I assume I'm in the wrong, fashion-wise.
Liz Kelly: That's right. And let this be a lesson to all of us that red leather jackets did not die with the demise of Merry Go Round.
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Halloween: Not a celebrity, but might as well be among my group of friends -- we're going as "my new haircut" on YouTube. Accents, fake tan and all. We'll be keeping tallies on those who get the joke and those who think we're one of them...
Liz Kelly: Anyone else want to share their costume plans? I'm going as crazy Britney. All I need is the pink wig (check) and a frappucino.
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Update: Dog Adoption: Hi, Liz! I wrote in months ago asking for suggestions on shelters to adopt a dog. Just wanted to let you know that we've been proud puppy parents for almost 2 months now. Just wanted to share the good news!
Liz Kelly: That's great news! Would love to see a pic if you have one.
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Re: Shatner: Do any of his former castmates like him? Is the speaking out just desperate attempts to stay in the spotlight?
Liz Kelly: From what I understand, he's not popular with the rest of the Enterprise crew. Though from what I've read, "Boston Legal" co-star James Spader doesn't mind him. In fact, he even once said that Shatner smelled pleasantly. Here's the quote: "He had a very sort of, a strangely very attractive sort of pungent sort of gamey, sort of a venison or a lamb sausage... and a little bit of rosemary with a touch of ranch dressing."
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Wanting to be back in lost-ville: Did you see Dr. Ethan from "Lost" on "Criminal Minds" last night? When will our Losties return?
Liz Kelly: Nope, I didn't. Lost returns the last week of January.
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washingtonpost.com: Lohan's Betty Gig (Page 6, Oct. 23)
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re: my wife and I can hold entire conversations comprising nothing but lines from SNL skits. : That's me and Seinfeld. Any situation, I can quote the same situation on Seinfeld and what George did about it. I'm starting to realize it's no longer hip nostalgic, but getting into Star Trekkie in the basement world.
Liz Kelly: That's me and Mr. Liz and the Simpsons. There is a line perfectly tailored to every single thing we have to communicate to each other.
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All my exes live in, TX: Claire Foralini is married to Dougray Scott, and I think Keanu is dating Parker Posey. Although Claire and Keanu were together in the past.
Liz Kelly: Right you are, though here are some pix of Keanu and Claire on a friendly dinner date last night.
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Centreville, Va.: Liz, wouldn't you also need a bag of Cheetos and/or a green umbrella to complete the "Crazy Britney" look?
Liz Kelly: Good point. But I'm stopping short of the Marlboro lights and ambulance.
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Alexandria: Hi, I'm the one that commented a few weeks ago about Taylor Momsen's horrible haircut. I assume you see what I mean with today's headline?
Also: Taylor Momsen: "I'm Naturally Thin" (Us Magazine, Oct. 21)
Momsen (omg!)
I thought this was just Taylor's awful style, but an article on OMG today says that next week Jenny Humphrey gets rebellious. (I haven't watched this week's episode yet.)
Liz Kelly: I don't think it's that bad. It's sort of reminiscent of late Carol Brady. It just looks kind of severe in that pic.
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I suppose it's "Rock of Love" vs. The Kennedy Center Honors. : Boring AND boring.
Liz Kelly: What's your poison?
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Ahhh, the Simpsons: Is there any dialogue more romantic? My long-term boyfriend wooed me when we first met using Dr. Nick voices. I was devastated when he died in the movie...
Liz Kelly: When Mr. Liz and I were first dating, I think I maybe dialed or e-mailed him something like "I really like you" one night when I'd had a few too many beers. And, pitch perfect, he e-mailed back this line originally delivered by Homer Simpson: "Beer, the cause of and solution to all our problems." It was definitely love.
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Alexandria, Va.: Hey, that Daily Mail site you keep sending us to said that Keanu was with Parker Posey but had been spending time with Trinny (from the Brit version of What Not to Wear) to console her on her failed marriage.
Oh, and he has ear wax.
You know, there are days when I really hate you, Liz Kelly.
Liz Kelly: What's with the hate? Because I'm sending you to the fabulous Daily Mail or because Keanu has ear wax or some else?
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A methinks Halloween: I'm dressing up as Joan Holloway from Mad Men, right down to the pen hanging around her neck. Unfortunately after this past Sunday's episode she's cutting a more melancholy figure.
Liz Kelly: Right. Sunday was a pretty rough episode for Joanie. I saw some great wigs that would make a perfect Joan this week.
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Not a Vegan: Gwynnie was never vegan. She was macrobiotic. Big difference. The latter eat meat (certain special types).
Liz Kelly: I think she's flirted with veganism, actually. In the past she's said that she didn't do meat or dairy, but would slip and have occasional cheese. Looks like she's back to enjoying a range of foods. Maybe it's the influence of pal Mario Batali.
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D.C. all the way: What do you think of Fringe? Personally I think it's not on par with X-Files but it is entertaining and when did Pacey(sp?) become hot because he's looking good on the show?
Liz Kelly: Pacey is def. hot, but I'm not liking the show. I can't put my finger on it except to say that the female lead is kind of wooden and Pacey's dad is a huge scenery chewer.
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Ratchet the soldier's dog: Finally made it to his new home in Minnesota from Iraq after 67K people signed a petition to help save him. He promptly went to sleep on the floor in the baggage claim area in the Mpls. Airport -- which was a lot quieter neighborhood than what's he used to. Welcome, Ratchet!
washingtonpost.com: Ratchet the Iraqi pup arrives in Minn., takes nap (AP, Oct. 23)
Liz Kelly: Awww.
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Tinseltown: Is it that Charlie Sheen is expecting twins, or that people expect he'll look at the baby and see twins?
Liz Kelly: No, in this case he and his new wife are actually expecting twin sons. So glad he's still out there procreating!
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Joan Crawford: Could be a good Halloween costume -- all you need is heels, a beehive hairdo, and a bag of (wait for it) wire hangers.
Liz Kelly: NO WIRE HANGERS!
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Halloween again: So if you're going as pink wig crazy Britney, does that in fact mean that I 'can' go as shaved-head Britney and not be uncool?
Liz Kelly: Sure, just don't forget your umbrella.
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Wasilla, Alaska: When I go clothes shopping for my husband, should I buy pleated pants?
Liz Kelly: No, no, no -- what your husband needs is a flak jacket.
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Zuvielekatzen: What did Sharon Stone do to herself? I just got my copy of "More" magazine (the mag for us chicks past the age of 40), and she along with Jane Fonda and Tea Leoni are on the cover. I didn't even recognize her! She's still attractive and all, but she doesn't LOOK like herself anymore.
Liz Kelly: Annoyingly, they don't have that cover posted on their Web site, so I'll have to reserve my judgment until I can run down to the local drug store.
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Alexandria, Va.: The faux hate is because I keep getting sucked into the Daily Mail vortex obsessively reading about strange people (like Trinny, WAGs, young royals).
Liz Kelly: Right. That site is such a guilty pleasure. I love it.
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washingtonpost.com: I'm surprised anyone in this chat even knows who Joan Crawford is. (Bitter Baby Boomer)
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Yikes: Well, she sure fell off the vegan wagon hard:
Gwyneth Paltrow Flaunts the Fur in New Ad Campaign (Ecorazzi)
Liz Kelly: I know. She's definitely reinventing herself these days, though still as insouciant as ever.
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Bawlmer aka area: Any tips on timely and witty celebrity Halloween costumes for those among us that do things last-minute? I'd like to go as Sarah Silverman, but then I'd have to leave every party after forty minutes.
Liz Kelly: Off the top of my head: buy a $15 buck long black hair wig and six baby dolls and go as Angelina. Oh, and be sure to check out Celebritology tomorrow for a special Halloween feature.
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Halloween costume: Me and the boyfriend are going to be Scully and Mulder. I have the red hair, he's tall and dark and mysterious, and all we need are business clothes and FBI badges. Costume done.
Liz Kelly: There you go.
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Liz Kelly: I'm out of here for the afternoon. Today's main post is finally up, so please leave your best captions before heading back to work. See you here next week and in the blog tomorrow...
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 25, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 23, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
Washington Week With Gwen Ifill
BYLINE: Gwen Ifill, Journalist, Moderator, "Washington Week With Gwen Ifill and National Journal", washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2352 words
HIGHLIGHT: Each week, the country's top reporters join moderator Gwen Ifill for an in-depth discussion of the week's top news from Washington and around the world. The longest-running news and public affairs program on PBS, "Washington Week and National Journal" features journalists -- not pundits -- lending insight and perspective to the week's important news stories. Now, Ifill brings "Washington Week" online.
Each week, the country's top reporters join moderator Gwen Ifill for an in-depth discussion of the week's top news from Washington and around the world. The longest-running news and public affairs program on PBS, "Washington Week and National Journal" features journalists -- not pundits -- lending insight and perspective to the week's important news stories. Now, Ifill brings "Washington Week" online.
Ifill was online Thursday, Oct. 23 at noon ET to take questions and comments.
The transcript follows.
Ifill is moderator and managing editor of "Washington Week" and senior correspondent for "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer." Ifill spent several years as a "Washington Week" panelist before taking over the moderator's chair in October 1999. Before coming to PBS, she spent five years at NBC News as chief congressional and political correspondent. Her reports appeared on "NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw," "Today," "Meet the Press" and MSNBC. Ifill joined NBC News from The New York Times where she covered the White House and politics. She also covered national and local affairs for The Washington Post, Baltimore Evening Sun, and Boston Herald American.
" Washington Week with Gwen Ifill and National Journal," airs on WETA/Channel 26, Fridays at 8 p.m. and Saturdays at 6:30 p.m. ( check local listings).
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Gwen Ifill: Hello everyone. Happy to be back chatting. Fire away.
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Bronx, N.Y.: Hello Gwen -- speedy recovery to you! Why are some Republicans saying that Gen. Colin Powell (ret.) is backing Sen. Obama because he's black? After more than 40 years of service to the United States, that's incredibly insulting.
Gwen Ifill: Hi and thanks for your good wishes. The ankle is healing nicely.
All I can say about the Colin Powell blowback is that I can guarantee the same people criticizing him now would have been happy to praise him to the skies if he had endorsed their candidates. It remains an open question why such criticism is only race-based when the target is a person of color. (Anyone suggesting race loyalty when the endorsed and the endorser are white?)
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Atlanta: How would you rate the debate performance of the vice-presidential candidates, as well as your own?
Gwen Ifill: It would have been nice if both candidates had come prepared to debate each other. My questions were designed to elicit discussion, not interrogation.
Still, the feedback I have received indicates that most viewers saw through all that, listened closely to some of the pretty illuminating answers and non-answers, and reached their own conclusions -- which is what I was hoping for.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Congrats on being immortalized on "Saturday Night Live" by Queen Latifah. What'd you think of her impression?
Gwen Ifill: All hail the Queen.
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Washington: As you have watched this election process from the beginning, what is your guess on who will win the White House?
Gwen Ifill: Nice try, but I don't do guesses. Besides, we'll know in just a few days, so what's the point?
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Alexandria, Va.: We continue to be avid viewers who thoroughly enjoy Washington Week. You do an outstanding job. Is the current Democratic congressional leadership -- Reid and Pelosi -- likely to continue in the next session, or have their positions on certain legislative issues (e.g. offshore drilling) placed either of them in jeopardy?
Gwen Ifill: The Democrats at this moment seem supremely unconcerned about their own political peril.But anyone who inherits this economy and these wars should certainly realize that immediate political advantage can fade quickly.
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Anonymous: How are your negotiations for a $150,000 clothing allowance from PBS coming?
Gwen Ifill: Ha!
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Not a "real" American, evidently: Gwen, isn't all this "real" American palaver by certain candidates just code-language, the verbal equivalent of a wink to voters who pine for the "good old days" of racial segregation -- just like Jesse Helms's notorious TV commercial in North Carolina a few years depicting the white hands of the applicant whose failure to get hired was supposedly unfair because of affirmative action? And the expression "real Virginia" evokes a geographical part of the state where a senatorial candidate (mistakenly, as it turned out) felt he could utter "macaca" with crowd approval.
Gwen Ifill: I am not willing to concede that everyone who uses this "real America" shorthand is engaged in winking code. But if they are, it sure doesn't seem to be working.
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Congrats on being immortalized on "Saturday Night Live" by Queen Latifah: I was just so relieved that it wasn't Kenan Thompson in drag.
Gwen Ifill: You know, that had occurred to me too. Love Kenan Thompson, but don't want to be him.
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Re:"(Anyone suggesting race loyalty when the endorsed and the endorser are white?)" Although I agree with the crux of your point, I think that would be an irrelevancy in most campaigns, as both of the people running are generally white. Now, if a white person endorses a white person of the opposite political affiliation and they happen to be running against a black person, then I do think that it would raise some eyebrows.
Gwen Ifill: You mean like Joe Lieberman?
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Re: Vice-Presidential Debate: I want to congratulate you on your performance during the vice-presidential debate. I initially was disappointed with the lack of follow-ups and attempts for clarification, but after some time and thought, I realized that you didn't give either candidate something to push-back against or any question to protest as "unfair. Was that your take or plan?
Gwen Ifill: I did not change a single question I had prepared because of that silly brouhaha over my supposed fairness. Anyone who has wached the way I do my job (when there are NOT 70 million people watching) could have predicted how I would run this debate. After all, it wasn't my first time at the rodeo.
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Arlington, Va.: Do you get an feel for the direction each candidate will take up in terms of alternative energy (solar, wind, etc.)?
Gwen Ifill: They both have said they favor the expansion of solar, wind, etc. They are less clear about nuclear energy, clean coal, etc. And neither can commit to spending what it will take to develop emerging technologies at a time when the nation will be cash strapped.
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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Gwen -- glad to hear that you're on the mend. I've been following this election more closely than any other I've ever voted in, including the polls. How do you account for the conflicting messages we seem to be receiving? Obama is pulling away, McCain is closing the gap, Pennsylvania is out of reach for McCain, Pennsylvania is tightening ... all at the same time. It's driving me a little batty.
Gwen Ifill: Yes, we have all reached that point in the campaign where it's best to take a deep breath. If you read enough polls, you can find a lot of apparently conflicting information. Just keep in mind that It Will All Be Over in just a few days.
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Toronto: Lately we have been hearing Republicans describe certain Democratic policies as "socialist." I was wondering if you think this word is used to suggest fiscal irresponsibility (such as "liberal") or dangerous ideology (such as "communist")?
Gwen Ifill: Ummm. Sure.
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Kansas City, Mo.: Hi Gwen. I love Washington Week! I've been missing you as moderator the past few weeks -- your fill-ins can't compare. As an undecided voter from the swing state of Missouri, I was lucky enough to attend rallies for both Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama in the past week. It was an interesting comparison. I was disappointed by the tone at the McCain rally -- it was full of negativity and booing. Is that supposed to appeal to someone like me, who leans toward McCain on issues but is tired of the politics of division?
Gwen Ifill: Hi. Never fear. I will be back Friday night, with the crutches just out of sight.
Thanks for the observations from tipping-point land. We'll be watching you out in Missouri on the 4th.
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Re: "You mean like Joe Lieberman?": Relevancy is a qualifier. Joe Lieberman's contrarian habits are predictable and simply match a pattern of behavior. Colin Powell's endorsement was much more of a surprise and departure, so people are going to wonder what the underlying causes really are.
Gwen Ifill: I would agree with you if I hadn't watched Powell speak for a half an hour on Meet the Press on his "underlying causes" and reasoning. Funny that no matter how much he explained, there would always be more questions.
Plus, last time I checked, Lieberman was still a Democrat on any number of policy points. I don't think that makes his support of McCain that predictable.
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Just keep in mind that It Will All Be Over in just a few days.: That's what we thought in 2000 also!
Gwen Ifill: Now, now.
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Seattle: With Sen. McConnell in a tight race and Rep. Boehner likely to lose more than 15 seats from his side of the aisle, have you seen indications of leadership changes among Republicans?
Gwen Ifill: It's possible to be premature on all this. I think it's fine to leave speculation about leadership changes until after the election.
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Austin, Texas: How much on average do you pay for the clothes you wear on-air? (Seriously. I'm a guy, and I want to have an idea how much it costs for a woman to dress well and professionally, as you do.)
Gwen Ifill: If you find a woman who would answer that question online, I'd like to meet her.
But I think you can assume that, of the two women on the stage at the VP debate,I was not the more expensively dressed one (although I have not seen the medical bill yet for the crutches).
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Lake Canada, N.Y.: To me, the startling part of the Powell endorsement was what went along with it: a condemnation of GOP tactics and a devastating attack on Palin's qualifications. This was out of character for a man not known for extravagent statements. Sounds like he truly has been appalled with what has happened to his party since the Reagan years, and this was his chance to explode (in his quiet fashion).
Gwen Ifill: I found it most interesting that he is the only big name I have seem attack the premise of the Obama-is-a-Muslim rumor, not just its substance.
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Cleveland: Gwen, I'm curious -- you've seen Sarah Palin up close and have asked her questions. Is there an objective view you have on her qualifications to be president? Say, compared to Biden? You must have a personal view, which you probably feel you can't reveal, but objectively this seems to be a large issue in what is dragging down McCain right now. Any thoughts?
Gwen Ifill: As am sure you know, it's not my job to tell you what to think about candidates -- or even what i think. Matter of fact, I'd bet I trust your thoughts as much as my own.
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Anonymous: As a long-time fan of yours, I was disappointed by your debate performance. Your questions weren't being answered and you did nothing to prod the candidates to answer your questions. I think the hype your upcoming book received influenced your performance in a negative way.
Gwen Ifill: Read my earlier response on my approach to debates. It is my job to spur engagement from both candidates, not to grill one or the other. I am completely certain others would have done it differently, but I am equally as sure little else would have been gained.
There is a line I observe between covering the story and being the story. Interviews are different from debates.
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Lesson Learned: Overall, I'd say all four debate moderators did just fine, because they stayed out of the way, didn't try to make themselves the stars, didn't call attention to themselves and didn't ask foolish "gotcha" questions that do nothing to help the electorate make its decision. I would say that the Democratic blacklisting of ABC, which conducted a miserably stupid debate during the primaries, had its intended effect.
Gwen Ifill: Gosh I agreed with you -- right up until that last line.
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Los Angeles: Why do you folks call yourselves "journalists" when even you on Oct. 17 tried to smear Joe the Plumber rather than even mention Sen. Obama's statement that it is a good thing to spread the wealth around.
Gwen Ifill: Since I was sitting on my couch with my foot elevated on Oct. 17, I can only assume someone has encouraged you to suggest a smear where none existed.
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"Contrarian habits": Powell is well known as not agreeing with neoconservative foreign policy (which McCain has completely embraced) and as generally socially liberal. Maybe the people who think his endorsement is racially based never bothered learning his political views. There is a reason that both parties have tried to recruit him as a presidential candidate.
Gwen Ifill: Interesting point.
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Although I have not seen the medical bill yet for the crutches: Those aren't clothes, those are accessories!
Gwen Ifill: Everything is definition, isn't it?
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Seattle: On your show tomorrow I assume you will address the primary issues at this point in the Presidential campaign. Can you give us a preview of what these issues are?
Gwen Ifill: We will have a great show tomorrow night, examining the candidates' closing arguments and their closing challenges.
David Shribman of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Jeanne Cummings of Politico, John Dickerson of Slate, Shailagh Murray of the Washington Post and Michael Viqueira of NBC News will provide the roundup.
Thanks for chatting!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 25, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 23, 2008 Thursday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Lois Romano, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2682 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Lois Romano was online live Thursday, Oct. 23 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Lois Romano: Good Morning Everyone. Glad you could join us today. So here we are, less than two weeks before the election. Seems like only two years ago that the campaign started! I'm looking forward to your questions.
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Fort Worth, Texas: Hi there, Lois. Here's a question that has been bugging me: I've seen polls that show that third-party candidates get up to 10 percent of the vote when they're included in the options. Why no coverage of them? It seems that time has been spent on less-than-ground-shaking articles about the two main candidates, so why no time spent on the others?
Lois Romano: We simply do not have the resources at this late stage of the game, to send reporters to cover fringe candidates that are not going to win. This is an extremely important election, and our readers care about the two main candidates. Also, I think 10% is a stretch.
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Poplar Bluff, Mo.: Lois, thanks for the questions. McCain and Palin are spending quite a bit of time in Pennsylvania, and polls show a lead for Obama. Gov. Rendall personally has asked for Obama to come back to campaign. Why is Obama losing ground in the Keystone State?
Lois Romano: Obama is up ten points in Pennsylvania so he's is very good shape there. Clearly, something in McCains internal polling is showing he has opportunity there, so Rendell is being cautious. Democrats always do well in Pennsylvania. Its a long-shot for McCain.
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Sewickley, Pa.: During the primary season, I frequently noticed Sen. Clinton's suits and would say to myself "oh she's wearing the brown one again -- that's my favorite" or "there's the powder blue one again." While she always looked put-together, her wardrobe didn't seem excessive. What do you estimate the price tag for her campaign wardrobe was?
Lois Romano: I have no idea, and thats the way she wants it. She has very nice, designer lothes-- St Johns knits, Charles Nolan- but they are largely understated and she pays for them herself. So, you wont see any bills for $150,000 flying around.
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Rochester, Minn.: A question related to Powell's endorsement of Sen. Obama: Are there any other prominent Republicans who haven't made endorsements and might endorse Obama, or prominent Democrats who haven't made endorsements and might endorse McCain?
Lois Romano: I think we've seen what we're going to see on that front.
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Burke, Va.: Ms. Romano, I hope you and your friends don't come down like a ton of bricks on the clothing expenses of Sarah Palin -- as your paper's own fashion critic said, her clothes are not ostentatious. She obviously dresses with great care because she is the highest profile woman in America today, with tens of millions watching and critiquing her every move on television, in debates, in speeches and on "Saturday Night Live." Critics would would hammer her for dressing like a hick backwoods hockey mom if she made the slightest fashion faux pas. Now she is being hammered for not dressing like a hockey mom. She is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't.
Palin did not pay for the clothes herself, and will not keep them after the campaign. The other candidates and their wives wear very expensive clothes (McCain wears $500 loafers and Obama has $1,500 custom-made suits while a Kenyan farmer makes $30 a year), and yet the media doesn't make a big fuss. Mark this down in your notebook: this clothing "scandal" doesn't turn me off to the hockey mom candidate. Her tastefully dressed appearance, plus her poise and grace under fire, makes me support her even more.
washingtonpost.com: After a $150,000 Makeover, Sarah Palin Has an Image Problem (Post, Oct. 23)
Lois Romano: All good points. But it sure is alot of money and most people cannot fathom how one could even get to that amount. Its was reported this morning that she wore a Valentino jacket at the convention-- one of the most expensive designers on the planet.
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Alexandria, Not-Real Virginia: The polls here in Virginia seem to indicate that Obama has a pretty comfortable lead, moreso than in some states with much closer numbers. But we're still in the toss up category. Why are the numbers not more convincing to pollsters?
Lois Romano: The pollsters can tell how decisive the voters are by certain questions. Virginia has long been a red state and and so perhaps the pollsters are seeing that some voters could still be swayed.
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New York: Reading the New York Times' breathless front-page coverage of the Republican campaign spending $150,000 for Sarah Palin's wardrobe, I felt like screaming "enough already, guys"! You've done your job and you've done it well -- your man will win and it looks like he will win in a landslide. You can afford to move just a wee bit out of the Obama tank now. It is beginning to seem the "Saturday Night Live" in-the-tank-for-Obama was actually understated. Do you think there will be a point when even the most committed Obama supporters begin to recognize the one-sided nature of mainstream media coverage of this election cycle?
washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: Project for Excellence in Journalism on Winning the Media in Election 2008 (washingtonpost.com, noon ET today)
Lois Romano: I have a theory that at some time or another, all coverage of politicians and presidents evens out. John McCain enjoyed effusive media coverage for years--starting with his 2000 race. The coverage of Palin, while perhaps over the top for you, is what the media sees as accountability coverage. She has pitched herself as a middle class hockey mom. And not too many of them spend $150,000 on clothes.
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Pittsburgh: What was Sarah Palin wearing the past few years before her $150,000 makeover, anyway? Surely some of her clothes were still-serviceable classics; I know this is true of my wardrobe, and am betting it's probably yours as well. Also, if Palin gives away her new clothes after the campaign, what will she wear afterward? Fleece? On a related note, when Geraldine Ferraro ran for vice president in 1984, did she buy her own new clothes for the campaign, or wear what she already owned, or did the Democratic National Committee buy her a new wardrobe?
Lois Romano: Im sure Geraldine Ferraro bought her own clothes.
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Boston: How much do you think the McCain's campaign decision to release all negative ads to the media contributed to the impression that he is so much more negative than Obama -- whose negative ads run under the radar as much as possible? Seems smart to let people in the non-swing states view Obama as positive. What's normal from previous campaigns?
Lois Romano: The reason McCain is being labeled as negative is because his ads seem so personal. Granted I haven't seen every Obama ad out there, but his attacks ads are about issues. McCain's effort to repeatedly suggest Obama cohorts with terrorists is over the top, in many people's view.
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Indiana: It is my understanding that the $150,000 was for clothes for the whole family -- so it's a generous allowance, but not outrageous.
Lois Romano: That is what has been reported but the lions share went for her clothes. Even if Todd bought 5 suits at $2000 each and a few pair of expensive shoes, you're still only at $11,000 or thereabouts. Outfits for the kids for the convention-- and other $5,000 maybe. Thats still alot of money. Ive been trying to do the math since yesterday and Im having trouble getting to that allowance. Unless she bought a fur coat and her inaugural gown.
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Boston: Hi Lois. I keep reading how McCain would have attracted more Independents and moderate Democrats if he had stuck with his opposition to the Bush tax cuts and his "agents of intolerance" take on some of the more extreme evangelicals. Would the net effect of that have been zero with him giving up the usual Republican base, or would they have gone for McCain anyway?
Lois Romano: So hard to say. But I do think he lost alot of traction recently with the attacks and negative ads. People dont want to be called unpatriotic. How did one part of the country become more patriotic than another? Why is one part of Virginia the "real Virginia?"
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Washington: Lois, thanks for the good chat. I felt when McCain pulled out of Michigan, that was the death knell. And I still feel that way. Is there any realistic scenario where he wins this thing, barring some total bombshell?
Lois Romano: The bomshell is his best bet right now.
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Washington: Assuming Obama wins the Presidency, what schools will his children attend -- D.C. public schools, or will they be sent to a private school?
Lois Romano: Good question and it's always an issue. In all fairness, its fairly difficult for a president to send his children to public schools in 2008. It would cost the taxpayers more to protect them that tuition for a private school.
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Washington: Any word on jury deliberations in the Stevens case?
washingtonpost.com: 'Stressful' deliberations continue in Stevens case (AP, Oct. 23)
Lois Romano: not yet.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Robin Givhan briefly mentions that Obama wears $1,500 suits and that Michelle wears designer clothes. Could you tell me where The Post's expose on their clothing expenses are?
Lois Romano: The Obamas pay for their own clothes. The expense are not public record. Hillary Clinton also pays for her own clothes-- no record.
The RNC footed the bill for Palin's clothes and then listed it in an FEC report. When John Edwards charged his haircuts to his campaign, it was widely and critically reported.
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Herndon, Va.: I read that up to a third of all votes may be cast early. Do you have any information on how they will be counted and reported on Election Night? That is, could we get a lot of results early in the night, or will the votes cast on Election Day be counted and posted first, then the early votes?
Lois Romano: My understanding is everyone holds back until all polls are closed.
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Alexandria, Va.: Greetings -- I look forward to the chats you do every other week. As a resident in the Alexandria area I have received two mailings that caught my attention. I don't want to jump to any conclusions and say there is some sort of coordination going on between these two groups, but what follows seems like an awfully big coincidence. On Monday I received in the mail some sort of DVD called "Obsession" about how Radical Islam from the West wants to take over, and then two days later I received in the mail a brochure from the Virginia GOP about Obama being a friend of Bill Ayers. Why would these organizations do this? My understanding from polling showed that the American people were worried about other issues, like the economy.
Lois Romano: I have been perplexed by the hammering on Bill Ayers. I can only guess that McCain's polls show it engergizes his base and he needs them to come out next Tuesday.
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Helena, Mont.: Get out your crystal ball and predict -- if Obama wins, do you think he still will draw 100,000 when he goes somewhere and makes a speech as president? I think yes, he will -- people want to hear him talk, whether in the campaign or if he were president. The one thing his campaign has done for me is restore my faith in my fellow citizens that they have an attention span for more than the 30-second ad.
Lois Romano: He's not going to have too many large venue opportunities to test your theory. But I would guess that, yes, he will remain a big draw.
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Alexandria, Va.: You said vote next Tuesday -- you meant a week from next Tuesday, Nov. 4, right?
Lois Romano: yes.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Do you think Obama will lose any ground by taking a day off the campaign trail to be with his grandmother? His commercials are still up and the Bidens and Michelle Obama are making appearances he still has a very big presence in battleground states. If necessary, he also could do appearances by satellite from Hawaii. So it really should be a non-issue. I don't think there is any political motivations to the trip, but it also will personalize him for some voters. It's certainly better than taking a day off to give a deposition for an investigation of your own alleged abuse of power.
Lois Romano: Who knows? He'd probably lose more ground if he didn't go because everyone would accuse him of abandoing his grandmother on her deathbed.
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Arlington, Va.: Re: Stevens case. Is the lack of a quick jury decision a bad sign for the senator?
Lois Romano: Not necessarily. Maybe they can't agree.
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Champaign, Ill.: In the story by Michael Abramowitz and Juliet Eilperin, they report that McCain aides dismissed the story as not important during a time of financial and foreign crisis. $150,000 on clothes is not important during a financial crisis? What are these yo-yos thinking?
Lois Romano: They are thinking that they unwittingly created a scandal 12 days before the election and they hope it goes away.
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New York: The upcoming New York Times Magazine article seems to suggest dissention in the McCain camp as to why they are losing and ultimately will lose. Is it that bad from the rumblings you are picking up on the trail?
Lois Romano: There will be enough blame to go around and yes, its starting now.
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Obama schools: Considering Obama's children are in a private school now, I'd assume that's not likely to change if he becomes president...
Lois Romano: probably true.
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Northern Virginia: We have heard a lot about negative and positive ads from both candidates. Is there any analysis out there to describe how many of these negative ads are issue contrast ads, rather than character attacks?
Lois Romano: not sure but might trying looking onthe website for the Project for Excellance in Journalism. They camparative studies you might find useful.
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Lexington Park, Md.: Maryland's Secretary of State is expecting an 85 percent turnout for this election; if you were a gambler, would you take the under or over? What if the mark were lowered to, say, 70 percent? Despite all of the hooplah, I suspect we'll stay in the 50 percent to 55 percent range -- a real disappointment!
Lois Romano: This election--primaries etc-- has had highest turnout in history in most states. I suspect that wont change. Its a highly charged race.
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Indianapolis: Obama is speaking here in a few minutes. A Democrat in Indiana, less than two weeks before the election. Can you believe it? This is an astounding end to an incredible campaign.
Lois Romano: This has indeed been an astounding race from start to finish-- never a dull moment. Just make sure you all vote-- don't take anything for granted.
Thank you all for joing me. See you in two weeks.
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Lois Romano: Just a reminder to join my colleagues here every day at this time. Enjoy your day!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 25, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 23, 2008 Thursday 10:03 AM EST
On Shopping and Patriotism
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2717 words
HIGHLIGHT: My fellow Americans:
My fellow Americans:
Let me make clear at the outset that I have no wardrobe allowance.
I have never shopped at Neiman Marcus. I once bought an expensive shirt at Nordstrom, but that was an emergency because I was out of town and on the plane my daughter had attacked, with a crayon, the only dress shirt I had.
But I believe people who shop at Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue and Barneys are as patriotic as those who get their duds at Wal-Mart.
I question the political wisdom of those who think it's a good idea to spend $150,000 on clothing, wardrobe and makeup for a vice presidential nominee of any gender. But I question even more the judgment of those who divide the country into "pro-American" and "anti-American" camps.
It's really depressing. Having covered campaigns for decades, I have a high tolerance for candidates ripping each other apart. I have a lower tolerance for the attacks on patriotism. And some of them are starting to backfire.
Sarah Palin expressed regret on Tuesday for having praised "these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America, being here with all of you hardworking, very patriotic, very pro-America areas of this great nation." The governor told CNN: "I certainly don't want that interpreted as one area being more patriotic or more American than another. If that is the way it has come across, I apologize."
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann said of Obama, "I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views," and also told Chris Matthews that the media should investigate which members of Congress harbor anti-American views. North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes said, "Liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God." Hate them? Bachmann later said she had been misinterpreted and Hayes denied making the comment.
Liberal bloggers are up in arms, starting with Joe Klein:
"Anyone who talks about the 'pro-American' parts of the country is making an anti-American statement.
"Anyone who talks about the 'real' parts of Virginia doesn't understand that all of Virginia is real -- just not the reality as fantasized by the sort of people who see some parts of the country as more 'pro-American' than others.
"Anyone who describes one part of the country as 'most patriotic' has lost all sense of what patriotism means. (And any congressman who describes his own constituents as 'rednecks' and 'racists' probably doesn't have much of a future in politics, no matter how much pork he hauls home. I'm talking about you, John Murtha.)"
Salon's Glenn Greenwald deconstructs the charges and subsequent apologies and evasions:
"There's clearly something interesting -- and different -- happening here. It's not that right-wing politicians are accusing liberals and Democrats of being unpatriotic, anti-American subversives. There's nothing new about that. To the contrary, that McCarthyite accusation has virtually been a central plank -- one could say the defining plank -- in the GOP platform for the last three decades, at least.
"What's different -- markedly so -- is that once they do it, they feel compelled to backtrack, deny they said it or meant it, rescind it, and -- in the case of Palin -- actually 'apologize' for it . . .
"Apologies in general are viewed as marks of weakness on the Right and are extremely rare; but in particular, the idea that any of them would apologize for insulting liberals or impugning their patriotism is simply unfathomable. Yet in a period of one week, that's what all three of these right-wing candidates have done -- quite abjectly. . .
"Why are those tactics suddenly not working? If anything, one could have expected that equating Democrats with anti-American, vaguely foreign, radical subversion would have been more potent this year than any other -- given that the Democratic presidential nominee is a previously unknown, black politician from Chicago with a mixed African and Arab name, a portion of his childhood in Indonesia, and substantial parts of even his immediate family still in Kenya to this day. But that line of attack has gotten Republicans nowhere -- other than sinking further into the mud of defeat."
Kos says the press has enabled this sort of thing, until now:
"Remember, Republicans have been able to score cheap points for a long time by playing to the media's sense of 'fairness'. Hence, the 'he said, she said' tradition arose. As a reporter, you couldn't write 'the sky is blue' without getting 'the other side' of the story to tell you 'the sky is purple'. Truth and fact are irrelevant.
"And in the old world, blatant lies like this could be easily covered up. A reporter catches you saying something stupid? Who cares! Just lie and deny it. At that point it becomes a 'he said, she said' question, and people will shrug their shoulders unable to independently determine who is right.
"Enter YouTube. Both Hayes and Bachmann can blatantly lie and it doesn't matter because we have the video and we can see for ourselves what was actually said."
Now Bachmann is saying that Matthews trapped her and that she'd never seen "Hardball." Huh?
Okay, here's the trick question:
MATTHEWS: Do you believe that...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: ... that Barack Obama may have anti-American views?
BACHMANN: Absolutely. I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views.
I mean, how underhanded is that?
Earlier, Bachmann wouldn't comment to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, but the paper ran an op-ed by her anyway. And Minnesota reporter Eric Black writes about his past difficulties in getting the congresswoman to return calls on remarks she later claimed had been misconstrued.
All right, let us turn our attention to Palin's own version of "spread the wealth" --spending the dollars of Republican donors on her high-end clothing. Clearly, this is not an issue on which the fate of the republic rests. But it hardly fits her image, does it?
The Politico scoop does give the MSM the chance to run cheeky headlines, such as the NYT's "May Alter Tailor-Made Image":
"Sarah Palin's wardrobe joined the ranks of symbolic political excess on Wednesday, alongside John McCain's multiple houses and John Edwards's $400 haircut, as Republicans expressed fear that weeks of tailoring Ms. Palin as an average 'hockey mom' would fray amid revelations that the Republican Party outfitted her with expensive clothing from high-end stores."
Or the LAT with "Sarah Palin's $150,000 Wardrobe Malfunction":
"Sarah Palin, small-town hockey mom and everywoman? More like Sarah Palin, pampered princess."
Or Slate's "Sarah Shops Saks": "It explodes the idea that she's a middle-class woman of the people. . . . The first is that the price tag is just too high, too many teacher and nurse and firefighter salaries. The second is that all this money spent on clothes, etc., points out exactly how much Palin is trading on her sexuality, her winks, her look," writes Emily Bazelon.
It can't help that, as the WP reports, "American Idol" make-up artist Tifanie White got $8,672 last month for beautifying McCain, while Amy Strozzi, head make-up artist on "So You Think You Can Dance," was paid $13,200 for her work on Palin.
GOP types who went bonkers over Bill Clinton's Christophe haircut and John Edwards's $400 haircut can hardly cry foul.
Well, maybe they can, according to Marc Ambinder:
"There is already an attempt to blame the media -- as in, the liberal media would have looked askance at Palin if she wasn't clad in Neiman Marcus, but this won't wash. Republicans, RNC donors and at least one RNC staff member have e-mailed me tonight to share their utter (and not-for-attribution) disgust at the expenditures. This sort of spending is without precedent -- the closest approximation for any campaign I've ever covered is make-up expenses for television interviews and commercial shoots -- , and Schmitt's weakly defensive response tonight indicates that the campaign is deeply embarrassed by it and has nothing to say in their defense."
Liberal blogger Taylor Marsh sounds doggone sympathetic -- almost:
"We beauty pageant veterans know all about the importance of style, don't we, Sarah? A girl's gotta do what a girl's gotta do . . .
"As a woman who loves nice clothes, I don't begrudge anyone a fancy outfit, especially if you're running for vice president. I'd just prefer the woman wearing the Neiman Marcus markup or the Saks Fifth Avenue suit bother to strap a few g's on to her words and leave the betcha by golly malarkey in the dressing room along with her war paint."
Matthew Yglesias:
"Now that I think about it, there was a story about John Edwards getting an expensive haircut that's like a rounding error compared to Palin's September hair and makeup expenses. The total bill is well over double the median household income in the United States."
Ann Althouse:
"There is an uneven burden on men and women. A male candidate can wear whatever business suits and shirts and ties he's had in his wardrobe for years. It's hard to go wrong. But the woman will be scrutinized, and there are so many pitfalls. Especially when she is suddenly elevated to the national stage -- like Sarah Palin -- a woman need major fashion assistance."
And we're talking major.
Red State's Josh Painter changes the subject to . . . Barack:
"Now the Obamunist media is upset over the shopping spree the RNC sent the Palin family on soon after John McCain named Alaska's governor as his running mate. The talking heads among them won't dare mention that their own fancy threads are freebies, btw."
Not me, btw!
"My search engine was unable to find a price tag for Sen. Obama's Hartmarx suits and Michelle's Maria Pinto dresses for their DNC convention appearances. Suits similar to the ones made for BHO go for $1,500 off the rack, but these were custom-made threads, not off the rack fare. Custom-tailored suits can easily ring up at $5,000 each or more. The Burberry suits that make up the bulk of Obama's wardrobe start at about $900 per . . .
"If the RNC had not invested heavily in clothing for the Palin clan to stand in front of the TV cameras and crowds, the elitist media would have decried the Palins for looking like the Clampetts. They would have sniffed, 'Somebody buy them some nice clothes!' "
The polls have been looking pretty good for Obama, prompting these observations from Roger Simon:
"The Democrats are poised on the brink of victory. And they cannot stand it. The news is too good. Something has to go wrong. On Saturday, Charlie Cook, an independent analyst and author of the Cook Report, wrote: 'This election isn't over, but it is looking very bad for Republicans -- and seems to be getting worse.' This plunged the Democrats into a deep gloom. Good news is always bad news for them . . .
"In October, he has outspent McCain 4-to-1 in advertising.' Awful news. Obama has a money problem. And you know what it is? He might run out of time to spend all the money he has! Election Day might come and go before Obama can spend the $5 million a day he is now raising. (If this does happen, I suggest he borrow a page from Oprah and buy everyone in America a Pontiac. Just as a gesture.) Obama himself has reacted to the dismal drumbeat of good news. At a fundraising concert in Manhattan last Thursday featuring Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel, Obama got up and said: 'Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up.'
"Which is the prevailing mood in the top echelons of the Democratic Party right now. The McCain campaign cannot possibly be as hapless as it looks, party leaders feel. It is lulling the Democrats into complacency. The Republicans have to have an October surprise, because the Republicans always have an October surprise . . .
"For the robocalls to be effective, the Republicans would need Bill Ayers to plant bombs today and not when Barack Obama was 8 years old. They need Ayers to plant bombs in key states right now with stickers on them that say: 'I am Barack Obama, and I endorse this bomb.' "
Are Joe Biden's gaffes getting the coverage they deserve? That was a doozy the other day, when Biden said his young running mate, a la JFK, would be tested by an international crisis within six months of taking office. As Palin told CNN: "Why does Joe Biden get a pass on such a thing? Can you imagine if I would have said such a thing? . . . If I would have said that, you guys would have clobbered me."
The newspapers didn't exactly play up the Biden blunder, and that set off Michelle Malkin:
"Hysterical Sarah Palin-bashers on the unhinged Left and Elitist right have dominated campaign press coverage and pop culture. They've ridiculed her family, her appearance, and her speech patterns. They've derided her character, her parenting skills, her readiness, and her intellect. Meanwhile, the increasingly erratic, super-gaffetastic Joe Biden gets a pass. What does the guy have to do to earn the relentless scrutiny and merciless mockery he deserves? Answer: wear high heels, shoot caribou and change the 'D' next to his name to an 'R.' . . .
"This week, Biden warned America that an Obama victory would invite a dangerous global showdown between tyrants and the naif Obama. 'Mark my words,' Biden said Sunday at a Democratic fundraiser. 'It will not be six months [after the inauguration] before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.' In a follow-up appearance, he told supporters to brace for the worst and 'gird your loins.' Out of Biden's mouth, this is called candor. Out of anyone else's mouth, it would be 'fear-mongering,' 'negative campaigning' and a 'distraction.' . . .
"Nightly news shows still haven't tired of replaying Palin's infamous interview with Katie Couric. But how many times have they replayed Biden's botched interview with Couric last month -- in which he cluelessly claimed: 'When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed.' "
Former Newsweek reporter Michael Hastings, writing in GQ, spills the beans on what really goes down between campaign journalists and operatives:
"I quickly realized Rudy was a maniac. I had a recurring fantasy in which I took him out during a press conference (it was nonlethal, just something that put him out of commission for a year or so), saving America from the horror of a President Giuliani. If that sounds like I had some trouble being "objective," I did. Objectivity is a fallacy . . .
"The dance with staffers is a perilous one. You're probably not going to get much, if any, one-on-one time with the candidate, which means your sources of information are the people who work for him. So you pretend to be friendly and nonthreatening, and over time you "build trust," which everybody involved knows is an illusion. If the time comes, if your editor calls for it, you're supposed to [betray them] . . . and they'll throw you under a bus without much thought, too. (I should say that personal friendships can actually develop, despite the odds.) For the top campaign officials and operatives, seduction and punishment of reporters is an art. Write this fluff piece now; we'll give you something good later. No, don't write it this way, write it that way. We'll give you something good later."
Next up was Mike Huckabee, and Hastings describes "how the press felt about the man. We thought he was a joke, from his views on evolution to gun control to homeschooling. But we cut him some slack because he was entertaining, and he played up being a yokel because he knew it worked with us . . .
"There was no small amount of hypocrisy when it came to journalists discussing the sex lives of the people they cover, since fidelity wasn't exactly a prized virtue among reporters on the campaign trail. For my part, I watched a lot of porn."
He was with Hillary when her campaign began to sink:
"I wanted out. I wanted Obama to win enough delegates to end this thing. But Hillary didn't lose, and even though the math was clear for everyone to understand, she kept on going. So I kept e-mailing and phoning and cornering her staff, trying to find out what was happening, what she was thinking. But I didn't care anymore if I got an interview. I didn't want to pretend that I thought she should win. I didn't want to pretend that I was enjoying being 'a part of history.' "
LOAD-DATE: October 25, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 23, 2008 Thursday 7:50 AM EST
On Shopping and Patriotism
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2717 words
HIGHLIGHT: My fellow Americans:
My fellow Americans:
Let me make clear at the outset that I have no wardrobe allowance.
I have never shopped at Neiman-Marcus. I once bought an expensive shirt at Nordstrom's, but that was an emergency because I was out of town and on the plane my daughter had attacked, with a crayon, the only dress shirt I had.
But I believe people who shop at Neiman-Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue and Barney's are as patriotic as those who get their duds at Wal-Mart.
I question the political wisdom of those who think it's a good idea to spend $150,000 on clothing, wardrobe and makeup for a vice-presidential nominee of any gender. But I question even more the judgment of those who divide the country into "pro-American" and "anti-American" camps.
It's really depressing. Having covered campaigns for decades, I have a high tolerance for candidates ripping each other apart. I have a lower tolerance for the attacks on patriotism. And some of them are starting to backfire.
Sarah Palin expressed regret on Tuesday for having praised "these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America, being here with all of you hard-working, very patriotic, very pro-America areas of this great nation." The governor told CNN: "I certainly don't want that interpreted as one area being more patriotic or more American than another. If that is the way it has come across, I apologize."
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann said of Obama, "I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views," and also told Chris Matthews that the media should investigate which members of Congress harbor anti-American views. North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes said, "Liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God." Hate them? Bachmann later said she had been misinterpreted and Hayes denied making the comment.
Liberal bloggers are up in arms, starting with Joe Klein:
"Anyone who talks about the 'pro-American' parts of the country is making an anti-American statement.
"Anyone who talks about the 'real' parts of Virginia doesn't understand that all of Virginia is real--just not the reality as fantasized by the sort of people who see some parts of the country as more 'pro-American' than others.
"Anyone who describes one part of the country as 'most patriotic' has lost all sense of what patriotism means. (And any congressman who describes his own constituents as 'rednecks' and 'racists' probably doesn't have much of a future in politics, no matter how much pork he hauls home. I'm talking about you, John Murtha.)"
Salon's Glenn Greenwald deconstructs the charges and subsequent apologies and evasions:
"There's clearly something interesting -- and different -- happening here. It's not that right-wing politicians are accusing liberals and Democrats of being unpatriotic, anti-American subversives. There's nothing new about that. To the contrary, that McCarthyite accusation has virtually been a central plank -- one could say the defining plank -- in the GOP platform for the last three decades, at least.
"What's different -- markedly so -- is that once they do it, they feel compelled to backtrack, deny they said it or meant it, rescind it, and -- in the case of Palin -- actually 'apologize' for it . . .
"Apologies in general are viewed as marks of weakness on the Right and are extremely rare; but in particular, the idea that any of them would apologize for insulting liberals or impugning their patriotism is simply unfathomable. Yet in a period of one week, that's what all three of these right-wing candidates have done -- quite abjectly. . .
"Why are those tactics suddenly not working? If anything, one could have expected that equating Democrats with anti-American, vaguely foreign, radical subversion would have been more potent this year than any other -- given that the Democratic presidential nominee is a previously unknown, black politician from Chicago with a mixed African and Arab name, a portion of his childhood in Indonesia, and substantial parts of even his immediate family still in Kenya to this day. But that line of attack has gotten Republicans nowhere -- other than sinking further into the mud of defeat."
Kos says the press has enabled this sort of thing, until now:
"Remember, Republicans have been able to score cheap points for a long time by playing to the media's sense of 'fairness'. Hence, the 'he said, she said' tradition arose. As a reporter, you couldn't write 'the sky is blue' without getting 'the other side' of the story to tell you 'the sky is purple'. Truth and fact are irrelevant.
"And in the old world, blatant lies like this could be easily covered up. A reporter catches you saying something stupid? Who cares! Just lie and deny it. At that point it becomes a 'he said, she said' question, and people will shrug their shoulders unable to independently determine who is right.
"Enter YouTube. Both Hayes and Bachmann can blatantly lie and it doesn't matter because we have the video and we can see for ourselves what was actually said."
Now Bachmann is saying that Matthews trapped her and that she'd never seen "Hardball." Huh?
Okay, here's the trick question:
MATTHEWS: Do you believe that...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: ... that Barack Obama may have anti-American views?
BACHMANN: Absolutely. I'm very concerned that he may have anti- American views.
I mean, how underhanded is that?
Earlier, Bachmann wouldn't comment to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, but the paper ran an op-ed by her anyway. And Minnesota reporter Eric Black writes about his past difficulties in getting the congresswoman to return calls on remarks she later claimed had been misconstrued.
All right, let us turn our attention to Palin's own version of "spread the wealth"--spending the dollars of Republican donors on her high-end clothing. Clearly, this is not an issue on which the fate of the republic rests. But it hardly fits her image, does it?
The Politico scoop does give the MSM the chance to run cheeky headlines, such as the NYT's "May Alter Tailor-Made Image":
"Sarah Palin's wardrobe joined the ranks of symbolic political excess on Wednesday, alongside John McCain's multiple houses and John Edwards's $400 haircut, as Republicans expressed fear that weeks of tailoring Ms. Palin as an average 'hockey mom' would fray amid revelations that the Republican Party outfitted her with expensive clothing from high-end stores."
Or the LAT with "Sarah Palin's $150,000 Wardrobe Malfunction":
"Sarah Palin, small-town hockey mom and everywoman? More like Sarah Palin, pampered princess."
Or Slate's "Sarah Shops Saks": "It explodes the idea that she's a middle-class woman of the people . . . The first is that the price tag is just too high, too many teacher and nurse and firefighter salaries. The second is that all this money spent on clothes, etc., points out exactly how much Palin is trading on her sexuality, her winks, her look," writes Emily Bazelon.
It can't help that, as the WP reports, "American Idol" make-up artist Tifanie White got $8,672 last month for beautifying McCain, while Amy Strozzi, head make-up artist on "So You Think You Can Dance," was paid $13,200 for her work on Palin.
GOP types who went bonkers over Bill Clinton's Christophe haircut and John Edwards's $400 haircut can hardly cry foul.
Well, maybe they can, according to Marc Ambinder:
"There is already an attempt to blame the media -- as in, the liberal media would have looked askance at Palin if she wasn't clad in Neiman Marcus, but this won't wash. Republicans, RNC donors and at least one RNC staff member have e-mailed me tonight to share their utter (and not-for-attribution) disgust at the expenditures. This sort of spending is without precedent -- the closest approximation for any campaign I've ever covered is make-up expenses for television interviews and commercial shoots -- , and Schmitt's weakly defensive response tonight indicates that the campaign is deeply embarrassed by it and has nothing to say in their defense."
Liberal blogger Taylor Marsh sounds doggone sympathetic--almost:
"We beauty pageant veterans know all about the importance of style, don't we, Sarah? A girl's gotta do what a girl's gotta do . . .
"As a woman who loves nice clothes, I don't begrudge anyone a fancy outfit, especially if you're running for vice president. I'd just prefer the woman wearing the Neiman Marcus markup or the Saks Fifth Avenue suit bother to strap a few g's on to her words and leave the betcha by golly malarkey in the dressing room along with her war paint."
Matthew Yglesias:
"Now that I think about it, there was a story about John Edwards getting an expensive haircut that's like a rounding error compared to Palin's September hair and makeup expenses. The total bill is well over double the median household income in the United States."
Ann Althouse:
"There is an uneven burden on men and women. A male candidate can wear whatever business suits and shirts and ties he's had in his wardrobe for years. It's hard to go wrong. But the woman will be scrutinized, and there are so many pitfalls. Especially when she is suddenly elevated to the national stage -- like Sarah Palin -- a woman need major fashion assistance."
And we're talking major.
Red State's Josh Painter changes the subject to . . . Barack:
"Now the Obamunist media is upset over the shopping spree the RNC sent the Palin family on soon after John McCain named Alaska's governor as his running mate. The talking heads among them won't dare mention that their own fancy threads are freebies, btw."
Not me, btw!
"My search engine was unable to find a price tag for Sen. Obama's Hartmarx suits and Michelle's Maria Pinto dresses for their DNC convention appearances. Suits similar to the ones made for BHO go for $1,500 off the rack, but these were custom-made threads, not off the rack fare. Custom-tailored suits can easily ring up at $5,000 each or more. The Burberry suits that make up the bulk of Obama's wardrobe start at about $900 per . . .
"If the RNC had not invested heavily in clothing for the Palin clan to stand in front of the TV cameras and crowds, the elitist media would have decried the Palins for looking like the Clampetts. They would have sniffed, 'Somebody buy them some nice clothes!' "
The polls have been looking pretty good for Obama, prompting these observations from Roger Simon:
"The Democrats are poised on the brink of victory. And they cannot stand it. The news is too good. Something has to go wrong. On Saturday, Charlie Cook, an independent analyst and author of the Cook Report, wrote: 'This election isn't over, but it is looking very bad for Republicans -- and seems to be getting worse.' This plunged the Democrats into a deep gloom. Good news is always bad news for them . . .
"In October, he has outspent McCain 4-to-1 in advertising.' Awful news. Obama has a money problem. And you know what it is? He might run out of time to spend all the money he has! Election Day might come and go before Obama can spend the $5 million a day he is now raising. (If this does happen, I suggest he borrow a page from Oprah and buy everyone in America a Pontiac. Just as a gesture.) Obama himself has reacted to the dismal drumbeat of good news. At a fundraising concert in Manhattan last Thursday featuring Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel, Obama got up and said: 'Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up.'
"Which is the prevailing mood in the top echelons of the Democratic Party right now. The McCain campaign cannot possibly be as hapless as it looks, party leaders feel. It is lulling the Democrats into complacency. The Republicans have to have an October surprise, because the Republicans always have an October surprise . . .
"For the robocalls to be effective, the Republicans would need Bill Ayers to plant bombs today and not when Barack Obama was 8 years old. They need Ayers to plant bombs in key states right now with stickers on them that say: 'I am Barack Obama, and I endorse this bomb.' "
Are Joe Biden's gaffes getting the coverage they deserve? That was a doozy the other day, when Biden said his young running mate, a la JFK, would be tested by an international crisis within six months of taking office. As Palin told CNN: "Why does Joe Biden get a pass on such a thing? Can you imagine if I would have said such a thing? . . . If I would have said that, you guys would have clobbered me."
The newspapers didn't exactly play up the Biden blunder, and that set off Michelle Malkin:
"Hysterical Sarah Palin-bashers on the unhinged Left and Elitist right have dominated campaign press coverage and pop culture. They've ridiculed her family, her appearance, and her speech patterns. They've derided her character, her parenting skills, her readiness, and her intellect. Meanwhile, the increasingly erratic, super-gaffetastic Joe Biden gets a pass. What does the guy have to do to earn the relentless scrutiny and merciless mockery he deserves? Answer: wear high heels, shoot caribou and change the 'D' next to his name to an 'R.' . . .
"This week, Biden warned America that an Obama victory would invite a dangerous global showdown between tyrants and the naif Obama. 'Mark my words,' Biden said Sunday at a Democratic fundraiser. 'It will not be six months [after the inauguration] before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.' In a follow-up appearance, he told supporters to brace for the worst and 'gird your loins.' Out of Biden's mouth, this is called candor. Out of anyone else's mouth, it would be 'fear-mongering,' 'negative campaigning' and a 'distraction.' . . .
"Nightly news shows still haven't tired of replaying Palin's infamous interview with Katie Couric. But how many times have they replayed Biden's botched interview with Couric last month -- in which he cluelessly claimed: 'When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed.' "
Former Newsweek reporter Michael Hastings, writing in GQ, spills the beans on what really goes down between campaign journalists and operatives:
"I quickly realized Rudy was a maniac. I had a recurring fantasy in which I took him out during a press conference (it was nonlethal, just something that put him out of commission for a year or so), saving America from the horror of a President Giuliani. If that sounds like I had some trouble being "objective," I did. Objectivity is a fallacy . . .
"The dance with staffers is a perilous one. You're probably not going to get much, if any, one-on-one time with the candidate, which means your sources of information are the people who work for him. So you pretend to be friendly and nonthreatening, and over time you "build trust," which everybody involved knows is an illusion. If the time comes, if your editor calls for it, you're supposed to [betray them] . . . and they'll throw you under a bus without much thought, too. (I should say that personal friendships can actually develop, despite the odds.) For the top campaign officials and operatives, seduction and punishment of reporters is an art. Write this fluff piece now; we'll give you something good later. No, don't write it this way, write it that way. We'll give you something good later."
Next up was Mike Huckabee, and Hastings describes "how the press felt about the man. We thought he was a joke, from his views on evolution to gun control to homeschooling. But we cut him some slack because he was entertaining, and he played up being a yokel because he knew it worked with us . . .
"There was no small amount of hypocrisy when it came to journalists discussing the sex lives of the people they cover, since fidelity wasn't exactly a prized virtue among reporters on the campaign trail. For my part, I watched a lot of porn."
He was with Hillary when her campaign began to sink:
"I wanted out. I wanted Obama to win enough delegates to end this thing. But Hillary didn't lose, and even though the math was clear for everyone to understand, she kept on going. So I kept e-mailing and phoning and cornering her staff, trying to find out what was happening, what she was thinking. But I didn't care anymore if I got an interview. I didn't want to pretend that I thought she should win. I didn't want to pretend that I was enjoying being 'a part of history.' "
LOAD-DATE: October 25, 2008
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The New York Times
October 22, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Inside the Times, October 22, 2008
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 2280 words
International
TOP MILITARY OFFICERS TALK
In U.S.-Russia Conference
In an effort to improve strained relations, the United States and Russia sent their top military officers to Helsinki, Finland, for a secretly arranged meeting. It was the first meeting between Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his counterpart, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, since the Russian was appointed to his post this summer. ''I think it's important that we talk when there isn't a crisis,'' Admiral Mullen said after the meeting. Page A14
TORTURE INQUIRY FAULTS MOUNTIES
A Canadian inquiry found that the passing of inflammatory information from Canadian police and intelligence officials to the United States contributed to the jailing and torture of three Canadian citizens by Syria. The head of the inquiry faulted the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service for making strong claims about the men that were mainly unsupported. PAGE A14
INDIA AIMS FOR THE MOON
India has launched its first unmanned spacecraft to orbit the moon, part of an effort to assert its power in space and claim some of the business opportunities there. The spacecraft, called Chandrayaan-1, will not land on the moon, though it is supposed to send a small ''impactor'' probe to the surface. The trip has increased talk of a space race with China. PAGE A8
NEW SENTENCE IN BLASPHEMY CASE
An appeals court in Afghanistan sentenced a young Afghan journalist to 20 years in prison for blasphemy, overturning a death sentence ordered by a provincial court. The ruling raised further concerns of judicial propriety in the case, in which the defendant, 23-year-old Sayed Parwiz Kambakhsh, was accused of printing and distributing an article from the Internet about Islam and women's rights, on which he had written some comments about the Prophet Muhammad's failings on that issue. PAGE A12
ITALY'S PREMIER RIDING HIGH
Even as the economic crisis took huge tolls on some of the companies he owns, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's billionaire prime minister, has been in good spirits. The reason? Mr. Berlusconi, who is already at the center of the nation's economy and politics, now stands to control billions of dollars in public money to bail out private companies should they need it, and they probably will. PAGE A6
WHERE THE CAESAR WAS FIRST TOSSED
Caesar's Restaurant sits in the seediest of spots, along Tijuana's Avenida Revolucion, and specializes in salad. But Caesar's claims a distinguished title: inventor of the Caesar salad. PAGE A10
National
PALIN MADE MINE MORE LIKELY, PITTING 2 INDUSTRIES AS RIVALS
Two years ago, Sarah Palin landed near Ekwok, Alaska, and spoke of her love for the vast delta that drains into Bristol Bay. ''I could not support a project that risks one resource that we know is a given and that is the world's richest spawning grounds, over another resource,'' she said, referring to the millions of wild salmon that spawn in those waters. But as governor, Ms. Palin has helped ease the way for a proposed copper and gold mine at the headwaters of Bristol Bay that would rival the world's largest mines. That prospect has ignited a war between Alaska's two historic industries: mining and fishing. PAGE A22
ARREST IN CHICAGO POLICE SCANDAL
Scores of criminal suspects, many poor and black, have come forward in the last few decades and said they were routinely brutalized during the 1980s by Jon Burge, above, and the mostly white officers under his command on the South Side of Chicago. Authorities arrested Mr. Burge, now 60, at his Florida home Tuesday, charging him in the police brutality scandal that continues to be one of the most racially charged chapters in the city's history. PAGE A16
ACORN REPORT RAISES QUESTIONS
An internal report by a lawyer for the community organizing group Acorn raises questions about whether the web of relationships among its 174 affiliates may have led to violations of federal laws. The report, written by Elizabeth Kingsley, a Washington lawyer, spells out her concerns about potentially improper use of charitable dollars for political purposes, money transfers among the affiliates and potential conflicts created by employees working for multiple affiliates, among other things. PAGE A17
THROUGH GAPS IN A FENCE
Families and friends, some of them unable to cross the border because of immigration trouble, meet in Friendship Park to exchange kisses and news through small gaps in the tattered chain-link fence that marks the meeting of Mexico and the United States in Imperial Beach, Calif. But in a sign of changing times, construction of new border fencing will begin next month, limiting any fence-side socializing. PAGE A16
OLD BOAT'S LAST VOYAGE (MAYBE)
As the Delta Queen pulled away from her dock in Cincinnati into the Ohio River, tears flowed among passengers, crew members and some of the hundreds of onlookers. The 10-day cruise to Memphis could be the last commercial voyage for America's last original, paddle-wheeled, steam-driven, overnight passenger boat. PAGE A18
Barack Obama's Grandmother A20
Business
THE PITFALLS IN PLANS
For a Homeowner Bailout
The head of the agency that guarantees bank deposits said the government should do more to prevent foreclosures, and both presidential candidates have called for assistance to homeowners. But David Leonhardt writes that each of those plans has an inherent problem: how does a large-scale homeowner bailout work without also helping millions of people who don't need help? PAGE B1
WAL-MART TO ALTER ITS SUPPLY CHAIN
In its latest effort to respond to criticism of its business practices, Wal-Mart said it would require manufacturers supplying goods for its stores to adhere to stricter ethical and environmental standards. Executives for the retail giant plan to reveal a new agreement that would require manufacturers to allow outside audits and to adhere to specific social and environmental criteria. PAGE B1
REGIONAL BANKS IN DIRE STRAITS
Five regional banks reported another round of painful results, and experts say their business will get worse as the economy deteriorates. Some of those banks sold stock to the government to shore up their finances, but as the losses mount, it is unclear how many small and midsize lenders the government will save. PAGE B9
YAHOO TO LAY OFF 1,500 WORKERS
Yahoo released its results after the market closed, and the news was not good. With the turmoil on Wall Street and an economic downturn weighing on the online advertising business, the company continued to falter in the third quarter, and the company said Tuesday that it would cut at least 10 percent of its work force, or about 1,500 workers, in the current quarter to reduce costs. PAGE B1
New York
DEVELOPER OF NETS' ARENA
Can Use Tax-Exempt Bonds
Federal tax officials ruled that the developer of a billion-dollar basketball arena for the Nets at the Atlantic Yards project in Brooklyn can use tax-exempt bonds to pay for the building. They also allowed the Yankees and the Mets to issue a new round of tax-exempt bonds for their new stadiums. But the teams may have difficulty finding investors to buy the bonds in the current economic climate. PAGE A26
FLAGS OF THEIR NEIGHBORS
A four-leaf clover? Plausible. A white tiger? It's been known to happen. A bastion of Republican supporters in the deeply blue enclave of Park Slope, Brooklyn? Wait, what? Oh, but it's true: four brownstones on a single block are waving a flag with a word rare enough in this liberal fortress to stop passers-by cold: ''McCain.'' PAGE A25
Dining
NATION'S RESTAURANTS FEEL PINCH AS DOWNTURN SLIMS DINERS' WALLETS
Across the country, restaurants are feeling the economic bite as patrons curb their spending habits. Restaurant owners are responding, with changed menus and added value options while diners order fewer appetizers and cheaper bottles of wine. Major chains are being affected more than their smaller, more malleable, independent counterparts, but experts say that nobody is going to escape this downturn unscathed. Page D1
A DIFFERENT SORT OF MICROBREWERY
Presenting a Japanese transplant, by way of Kentucky: Bluegrass Soy Sauce. Matt Jamie developed the idea while thinking about small-batch bourbon and artisanal olive oil. Why not do the same with soy sauce? The resulting product is turned out in batches of around 1,600 and sticks close to the original Japanese methods of brewing, except for the old bourbon barrels it is aged in. Page D3
Arts
A CUT-THROAT COMPETITION
For Overqualified Fashionistas
In the new reality show ''Stylista,'' contestants vie for an editorial position at Elle magazine. The show's judge is an imperious magazine editor, one of those exacting types who is particular about, say, the way she likes her breakfast, and the show's commentary on our economic times may be accidental, but it was hard for Ginia Bellafante to miss. ''It is a brutal world indeed when securing a job to procure coffee for women in six-inch heels suddenly means going up against adversaries who speak Mandarin,'' she writes. PAGE C1
YOUNG MALES IN THEIR FUTON YEARS
Charles Isherwood writes that the beginning of the Second Stage Theater's revival of ''Boys' Life,'' a sensitive 1988 comedy by Howard Korder about three postadolescent men, misplays some of its early moments. ''But the staging matures almost by the minute,'' he writes ''and when the actors begin consistently hitting the right notes, Mr. Korder's mosaic of youthful dissatisfaction achieves a jazzy sense of melancholy.'' PAGE C1
THE ENGINES OF CHINA'S GROWTH
China's boom has been fueled by what Leslie T. Chang calls the ''the largest migration in human history'' -- the movement of millions of migrant workers into the country's cities. Her new book, ''Factory Girls,'' explores that shift, and offers an extended aside in which she explores her ancestors' roots in China. ''The results are deeply affecting,'' writes Howard French. PAGE C6
Sports
A CHILD OF THE CHEAP SEATS
Now in the Owner's Box
As a child, David Montgomery would sit in the upper deck of Connie Mack stadium to watch the Phillies play. When he went to the University of Pennsylvania, he would sit in the bleacher seats with his friend Ed Rendell, the city's future mayor and Pennsylvania's future governor. And Montgomery worked his way up from an entry-level job with his beloved team to become its chief executive. PAGE B12
SOME NOSH AND A PENNANT
The Tampa Bay Rays are the rare sports team that allows its fans, above, to bring their own food into the stadium. And, George Vecsey writes, the outstanding good karma for that practice has helped propel the Rays to the World Series. PAGE B15
THE MISSING PIECE?
Lebron James is arguably the best player in the N.B.A., and with his contract heading into its final phase, the pressure is on the Cleveland Cavaliers to build a championship team. A big part of their plan relies on the recently signed Mo Williams, who has become a solid scorer after falling to the second round of the 2003 draft. PAGE B12
WITH FAVRE, NEVER A DULL MOMENT
When the Jets traded for Brett Favre they knew they were getting from Green Bay a gunslinger with three Most Valuable Player awards. But allegations that he called the Packers' opponent last week to tell them some of the nuances of the Green Bay offense underscores the other thing that Favre brings: drama -- a whole lot of it. William C. Rhoden, Sports of the Times. PAGE B13
CALL TIMEOUT, KICKERS DON'T MIND
It's an age-old football tradition. If the game is on the line, and the kicker is lining up to boot a field goal for the victory, the opposing team's coach calls a timeout to get in his head. But kickers say it does not work; indeed, it gives them more time to prepare and adjust. So what of the new practice of calling a timeout immediately before a kick, in essence nullifying the first attempt? The Fifth Down. PAGE B13
Obituaries
GAIL ROBINSON, 62
She was a winner in the Metropolitan Opera National Council Auditions at 19, and for nearly two decades starting in 1970, she went on to a career as a teacher and guide for emerging singers. PAGE A25
RUDY RAY MOORE
A standup comic, singer and actor whose earthy rhyming tales of a vivid gaggle of characters lurching from sexual escapade to sexual escapade helped shape today's hip-hop PAGE A25
Editorial
ONLY HALF A BAILOUT
As millions of Americans continue to default on their mortgages, banks will continue to suffer big losses. Unless something is done quickly to help American homeowners avoid foreclosure, those losses will swamp the bailout effort. PAGE A28
COURTING CHAOS IN MASSACHUSETTS
Next month, voters in Massachusetts will face a tempting ballot question on whether to eliminate the state's income tax. It is a reckless proposal that would hurt all taxpayers. Voters should reject the idea. PAGE A28
FLU VACCINE FOR PRESCHOOLERS
New Jersey's new mandate that all children in preschools must be vaccinated against influenza has generated intense opposition. But allowing people to opt out would be a serious mistake. PAGE A28
Op-ed
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Last week, retail gasoline prices fell below $3 a gallon -- to an average of $2.91 -- the lowest level in almost a year. But as gas prices fall, the budding clean-technology revolution suffers. PAGE A29
A MATTER OF LIFE AND DEBT
Debt, the bond between a borrower and a lender, is a fundamental human relationship, based on fairness, that stands at the center of both religion and literature, the novelist Margaret Atwood writes in an Op-Ed article. PAGE A29
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 22, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS
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PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
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The New York Times
October 22, 2008 Wednesday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
After a Year on the Road, Obama Is Changing His Tempo
BYLINE: By MICHAEL POWELL; Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting from Miami.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 959 words
DATELINE: ROANOKE, Va.
Where's Miles Davis? Who kidnapped Elvis?
Up there on the riser in the Virginia arena, there is this careful guy reading from a teleprompter and keeping his tone not exactly monotone but not exactly soaring, and he is repeating more or less the same lines that he read the night before and the same lines he will read the day after.
Once, the artist formerly known as Barack Obama, the slim, smooth-faced fellow with the close-cropped hair and the trumpet of a voice would riff on 14 varieties of hope and propel crowds higher and higher until he sent them spinning out into the night ready to change the world. Teleprompters were for the earthbound.
Now this candidate, with noticeably more gray flecking his hair, is talking about ''the changes and reforms we need.'' He goes on about ''a new era of responsibility and accountability on Wall Street and in Washington.'' He hankers for ''common-sense regulations to prevent a crisis like this from ever happening again.''
''Bottom-up growth,'' he promises brightly.
What happened to the ''fierce urgency of now''?
It is tempting, in contrasting the Obama of a year ago with the presidential candidate of today, to conclude that Miles Davis has turned himself into Barry Manilow. That is not quite the case; he still draws crowds -- 100,000 in St. Louis on Saturday -- that would warm a rocker's heart. And his words can still soar, as when he and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton formed a campaign duet Monday in Florida. But this Mr. Obama is a consciously, carefully, intentionally more grounded one, and a touch duller for the metamorphosis.
The slow muting of Mr. Obama's rhetorical dial, particularly noticeable as world markets gyrate and unemployment spikes, speaks to a candidate who has run a rigorously disciplined campaign. His goal a year ago was to soar while rivals still cast their eyes down; now he must convince voters that he can walk just a step or two ahead of them, and so help navigate treacherous ground.
Hope is about paying the mortgage.
''He is intent on making a very pointed and precise case,'' said David Axelrod, Mr. Obama's chief strategist. ''We are offering a solid leader with a sober vision.''
At his most effective, this 47-year-old Democrat forces everyone -- his Republican rival, his aides, the voters -- to adapt to his tempo. So Mr. McCain entered each debate frowning, scoffing and tossing pugnacious roundhouses; Mr. Obama, playing with a grin, slipped to this side and to that, reframing questions, fighting on his terms.
The Obama of the campaign trail is at once more prosaic and perhaps more proficient. Early this year, when his appearances were more happening than rally, one could count on a constant: Someone would scream, ''I love you, Obama!''
And Mr. Obama would, almost without looking up, answer quickly, ''I love you back.''
Then the McCain campaign began running commercials portraying Mr. Obama as a separated-at-birth celebrity brother of Paris Hilton.
Shouts of ''I love you'' went unrequited this past weekend.
Mr. Obama is of two minds about the artifice of politics. Last spring he often resisted the impulse to pretend he was just folks; he held tight to his gerunds. And, slender fellow though he is, he refused to gorge on the artery-clogging sausage and sweets found on the campaign trail.
But to listen in Roanoke last weekend was to hear him backstroking in the regional accent pool. ''We went to this din-ah,'' he told the crowd, sounding a bit like a fellow who wandered down from the Appalachian Mountains. ''Y'know, I lahk some sweet potato pie.''
And a little later: ''I don't think it's right,'' said the Harvard-trained lawyer. ''In fact, it ain't right.''
No indeedy.
Mr. Obama rarely pushes down hard on the base pedal on race. History suffuses his campaign; there is no need to make explicit what is so evident. Black crowds, from Fayetteville, N.C., to North Philadelphia, recognize precisely the historical narrative playing out before their eyes.
As Mr. Obama roams the whiter hinterlands of Missouri, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina, he as often travels with a white companion -- particularly those popular among the white working class -- Governors Ted Strickland of Ohio and Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, and Senators Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Jim Webb of Virginia.
He is just like you, they tell audiences. He grew up middle class. He is a father and a husband. Their talks can be quite frank. From time to time, though, words strain at the bounds of what the eye can see. So Mr. Webb, a red-haired, proudly Scots-Irish pol with a John Wayne cadence, introduced Mr. Obama in Roanoke and began: He's one of you.
Mr. Webb offered a complicated formula that involved putting to the side Mr. Obama's Kenyan father, then tracing the lineage of Mr. Obama's white mother, who was born in Kansas to parents whose grandparents came from Kentucky and whose ancestors somewhere in their wanderings from Ireland and Scotland presumably settled for a spell in southwestern Virginia.
Mr. Webb finished with a broad smile. He has divined the backwoods white bonafides of an urbane, mixed-race Chicagoan.
''They say he's not like you.'' He shook his head, sternly. ''Barack Obama is just like you.''
The crowd puzzled for a second, then clapped at his effort.
On Tuesday in Lakewood, Fla., Mr. Obama held a ''jobs summit'' with Google's chief executive, Eric E. Schmidt, and Paul A. Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve. The crowd tensed, pulsed, here he comes, that man who makes so many hearts leap.
''Yes, we can! Yes, we can!''
No he can't, not today. The candidate wags his head and asked, politely, for silence. ''No cheerleading. We have some serious business to do.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 22, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: October 27, 2008
CORRECTION: A Reporter's Notebook article on Wednesday about Senator Barack Obama's change in tempo on the campaign trail misidentified the city in Florida where Mr. Obama focused on the issue of jobs on Tuesday. It was in Lake Worth, not Lakewood.
GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Obama supporters on Tuesday stood around a cardboard stand-in before the start of a meeting on jobs in Palm Beach, Fla. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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149 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
October 22, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
Democrats or Republicans, Latinas Are Swaying the Vote
BYLINE: David Montgomery; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1745 words
They use lipstick as a beauty accessory and a political weapon. At home, they're the boss. They keep in touch via Facebook. When they call to ask for your vote, in English or Spanish, you hear their children in the background. They say what matters this election are education, taxes, health care, immigration reform and "values."
These politically charged Latinas agree on almost everything -- except which presidential candidate will actually deliver what they want.
"Who said you couldn't get Latinas out here in their high heels being political?" says Rep. Loretta Sanchez, the California Democrat, warming up the crowd at a vice presidential debate-watching party in a bar in Arlington.
The women pass around red lipstick to symbolically redeem the accessory after Sarah Palin's quip about lipstick being the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull.
"Latinas for Biden wear lipstick, too!" the women shout. "We are Latinas for Obama!"
* * *
Another night, a smaller crowd of fired-up Latinas in heels, this time at a business club in downtown Washington.
"Latinas for McCain, we go where the voters are," says Tibi Ellis, a business owner from Las Vegas who co-founded the group. She's visiting tonight to inspire the local Latinas. They wear white buttons with a declaration in red: "I use lipstick and I vote."
"I'll see you back here in Washington for the inauguration!" promises Ellis.
* * *
Niche activism is self-validating and effective. "Jews for McCain" and "Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders for Obama" can target people with whom they have more in common than mere party affiliation. There are "Women for McCain" for all females who support the GOP nominee. There are "Amigos de Obama" for todos los Latinos who support Obama.
But Latinas for this guy or that guy? That's slicing the demographic pie pretty thin. Political passion is sifted through not one but two filters: gender and ethnicity. Is it the age of micro-targeting and Facebook tribalism run amok?
Not at all, say the women. They were Latinas before they were Democrats or Republicans, and they share a bipartisan insight about their culture: Women are the values-keepers, message-bringers, decision makers. They make the men look good. They're vital to political conversation and conversion.
"In the Hispanic household, the whole household votes the way the woman votes," says Ellis, sporting a sparkling "McCain 2008" pin. "Men are the patriarchs. When it's time to serve dinner, the first steak goes to the head of the table, which is the man. But the steak was bought in the store the woman chose and fixed the way the woman wanted it to be cooked."
"In the Latino community, the woman in the family, the mother, plays a very important role," says Emma Violand-Sánchez, an organizer of Latinas Unidas por Obama, and a candidate for the Arlington school board.
She spent part of a recent Saturday canvassing registered Latino voters in Annandale. The women answering doors in a garden apartment complex invited her into their living rooms, where they would settle in for a chat in Spanish about kids, the future, the Democratic candidate.
"People underestimate the power of mujer-to-mujer, woman-to-woman," Violand-Sánchez says.
* * *
Latinos make up fewer than 5 percent of eligible voters in Virginia, but with the state turning into a battleground, Latinos -- and therefore politically proselytizing Latinas -- could make a difference.
So activistas from Maryland and Washington are crossing the Potomac River to reinforce their sisters in the commonwealth. They are business owners, professionals, holders of graduate degrees -- women of accomplishment for whom political engagement is the luxury of a station in life where they have the understanding and wherewithal to influence events.
Laura RamÃrez Drain, 42, grew up in Mexico, where she was a volunteer for the relatively conservative party of former president Vicente Fox. Her mother had a business designing wedding dresses. Her father was an opera tenor. Campesinos heading north spoke highly of a man named Ronald Reagan, who they said was a friend of immigrants and who enabled their self-reliant dreams. Later, she heard of Reagan's famous quip "Hispanics are Republicans, they just don't know it yet."
Drain got a job with Hewlett-Packard, which sent her to the United States to be a sales manager for the Southeast and then for Latin America. She settled in the Washington area, where she founded the Hispanic Professional Women Association and also a nonprofit group to help Latina high school students.
This year she became a citizen. She registered Republican. To her friends in the nonprofit world, most of whom are Democrats, "it was a shock," she says. "I lost a couple friends. I won over two or three Democrats."
One of her first political acts was becoming a delegate from Virginia to the Republican National Convention, and then she helped organize Latinas for McCain.
Drain and Latinas for McCain spent part of one Saturday canvassing in Annandale, too, less than a mile from where the Latinas for Obama were at work. Drain's group included her 7-year-old son and her husband, an engineer and a Republican, so no lobbying has been necessary at home.
Why McCain?
The Latinas for McCain cite moral values. He is antiabortion and for "the sanctity of marriage."
They give McCain enduring credit for being a champion of immigration reform, even if lately he has somewhat modified his approach to the issue. "For the girls in my foundation, the Dream Act is the most important thing," Drain says, referring to a bill that would give high school graduates who arrived illegally as children a chance to acquire legal status and receive college financial aid.
(McCain was an early co-sponsor the Dream Act, but last year he skipped a vote that would have advanced it in the Senate. McCain's spokesmen did not return three phone calls for comment on his current position. Obama supports the act.)
They admire Sarah Palin, a strong woman rising so high. For all the Democrats' snickering about her recently acquired passport, the Latinas for McCain wonder why the supposedly worldly Obama has spent so little time in Latin America, and why he is skeptical of free trade with their countries.
"Another thing you find with Latinas and Hispanics in general is, back home, they had a little shop, a tiendita, and we're carrying those traditions here," says Fabiola Francisco, daughter of a Bolivian immigrant, active in the family enterprises here that include government contracting and an imported-crafts store. "Less taxes goes perfectly with an entrepreneur."
"Obama's plan would kill my business," says Marilyn Ehrhardt, referring to the Democrat's tax plan. "Whether I want to or not, I can't afford to vote for him."
Ehrhardt's family came from Cuba. Her company provides information technology to health clinics serving the poor. She is one worried Latina, and so she is voting for McCain:
"This election triggered me to become politically active. I'm a naturalized U.S. citizen. I came here for the values this country offered, dealing with personal responsibility, market freedom. I see those in jeopardy. The economy is in jeopardy. Security is in jeopardy."
* * *
The De La Inés hair and beauty salon in the Chevy Chase neighborhood of Northwest Washington is busy on a recent Sunday afternoon, but the women (and a couple of men) sitting before the tall mirrors or beneath the hair dryers are not being styled.
They hold cellphones to their ears, and in their laps they balance bilingual scripts and lists of registered Latino voters who live around Roanoke. Sundays, the salon becomes a phone bank for Obama.
"¿Fuerte por Obama?" Strong for Obama? "¡Qué bueno!" Great!
Depending on how the voter answers the phone, the caller will speak in Spanish or English.
A handful of children scamper around, including the 11-year-old son of Roxana Cazares Olivas, the salon's co-owner and a founding member of Latinas Unidas por Obama.
Olivas, 35, knows what it's like to be a Latina Republican -- she used to be one.
She grew up in El Paso, the daughter of Mexican immigrants from just across the border in Chihuahua. Her father is a retired real estate broker.
Being Republican is a family tradition, the origins of which she does not recall. Like many Texas Latinos, the members of her family liked their governor, George W. Bush. He seemed to understand and appreciate Latinos, in the manner of that other former Western governor, Reagan. Running for president, Bush spoke Spanish in campaign commercials and declared: "There are people in this country who would like to build walls between Mexico and America. And make no mistake about it: A president George Bush will work to tear those walls down."
Olivas became a member of Amigos de Bush in El Paso, and helped cut a music CD for the campaign that played locally. Fours year later, in 2004, with waning enthusiasm, she voted for him again.
"This is the first time I'll be voting Democratic," she says.
Why Obama?
"Immigration, the war, the economy, Katrina," she says. "We just need a change. . . . He not only captured me in his actions but also captured my heart."
She doubts McCain's continued commitment to immigration reform, and says she has never forgotten Obama addressing a huge march for immigrant rights in Chicago in 2006. She wants the Dream Act enacted as much as Drain does. Obama told Latino audiences in Washington this fall that he supports it.
Values matter, too. Sanctity of marriage? Olivas asks which candidate left his first wife and broke up his family. Abortion is tough. She balances it with immigration reform, which she sees as a moral issue, as well.
"Yes, we're not for abortion, but immigration is a deal-breaker," she says.
The day before the election, she and her business partner in the salon, Dina Busacco, will mark the first anniversary of their business. They don't accept the claim that Republicans are the party of enterprise, the Democrats of interference.
"That's such an old-school mentality," Olivas says.
So she's doing what the Latinas for McCain are doing. Using all her powers of persuasion to make a difference.
Her husband is already a strong Democrat. But many in her extended family back in El Paso lean Republican. They are a project. Her sister became a Democrat this year, was strong for Hillary Clinton, now is coming around to Obama. And her father?
"Even my father's for Obama!" Olivas says. "I definitely credit myself with that one."
LOAD-DATE: October 22, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE
IMAGE; Top Photo By Michael Williamson, Bottom By Katherine Frey -- The Washington Post; Women organizing on the political front are not necessarily in the same partisan camp, but each side is equally energetic, particularly when it comes to appeals that rely on cultural connection.
IMAGE; Top Photo By Michael Williamson, Bottom By Katherine Frey -- The Washington Post; Women organizing on the political front are not necessarily in the same partisan camp, but each side is equally energetic, particularly when it comes to appeals that rely on cultural connection.
IMAGE; By Katherine Frey -- The Washington Post; At a D.C. salon, from left, Roxana Cazares Olivas, Elizabeth Jenkins-Joffe and Adriana Gallegos work phones for Obama.
IMAGE; By Katherine Frey -- The Washington Post; Dina Busacco, co-owner of the De La Inés salon, helps with weekly calls on behalf of the Democrat.
IMAGE; By Michael Williamson -- The Washington Post; At a GOP-sponsored debate-watching party, Luis Quiñonez chats with Marilyn Ehrhardt, center, and Laura RamÃrez Drain, a newly registered Republican.
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The Washington Post
October 22, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
Obama's Iffy Numbers On McCain Health Plan
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 560 words
"How would your golden years turn out under John McCain? His health-care plan would cut Medicare by $800 billion. That means a 22 percent cut in benefits. Higher premiums and co-pays. More expensive prescription drugs. Nursing home care could suffer. . . . After a lifetime of work, seniors' health care shouldn't be a gamble. John McCain's plan? It's not the change we need."
-- Obama campaign's "Your Golden Years" ad
Barack Obama has been telling seniors that their hard-won Medicare benefits are at risk if his rival wins the election. The message has been hammered home in a series of speeches and television ads, including the one shown above, set against a backdrop of spinning lottery balls. Is it true, as the Democratic senator asserts, that his Republican opponent is planning to "gamble" with Medicare benefits?
THE FACTS
The Obama claim rests primarily on a Wall Street Journal interview with McCain's top economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, that was published Oct. 6. Holtz-Eakin told the Journal that McCain would pay for his health plan "in part" by looking for "savings" in Medicare and Medicaid. He was vague about where the savings would come from, other than talking about the need to cut fraud and waste in the programs.
"It's about giving [Medicare and Medicaid recipients] the benefit package that has been promised to them by law at lower cost," Holtz-Eakin told the newspaper.
In other words, contrary to the claim in the Obama ad, the McCain campaign was specifically promising not to "cut benefits" but to provide the promised benefits at a lower cost. The Obama ad misleadingly cites the Wall Street Journal interview as the source for the alarming "22 percent cut in benefits."
How did the Obama campaign come up with the claim of an $800 billion cut in Medicare (described in another Obama ad as an $882 billion cut)? Answer: some back-of-the-envelope calculations by a liberal think tank, the Center for American Progress.
The think tank bases its findings on the assumption that McCain will need to save around $1.3 trillion over 10 years to pay for his health-care plan. (This is based on an analysis by the independent Tax Policy Center that has not been challenged by the McCain campaign.) The senator from Arizona has promised to give Americans a $2,500 refundable tax credit to be spent on health care in exchange for taxing the health benefits they receive from their employers.
It may be that McCain is wildly optimistic in believing that he can find sufficient savings in Medicare and Medicaid to pay for his promised refundable health-care tax credit. But such a criticism also applies to Obama, who is relying on similar cost cuts to fund his health-care plan. The senator from Illinois says that a shift to electronic health records will generate savings of around $120 billion a year, a claim termed "wishful thinking" by many independent experts.
THE PINOCCHIO TEST
John McCain has not provided a convincing explanation for how he will fund his health-care plan. But it is a huge stretch for the Obama campaign to argue that the McCain plan will inevitably result in an $800 billion (or $880 billion) cut in Medicare programs over 10 years, or a "22 percent cut" in benefits paid to American seniors. McCain's top economic adviser has specifically promised not to cut benefits.
THREE PINOCCHIOS: Significant factual errors.
LOAD-DATE: October 22, 2008
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151 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
October 22, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
The 'Socialist' Scare
BYLINE: Ruth Marcus
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 753 words
DATELINE: WOODBRIDGE
John McCain should not have to be here, not on a crisp October Saturday scarcely two weeks before the election. Prince William County is the electoral Maginot line between the Washington suburbs and what a McCain spokeswoman has just unhelpfully described as "real Virginia." George W. Bush twice won 53 percent of the vote in this booming exurb, mirroring his statewide totals.
But here is McCain, in front of one sign reading "Phil the Bricklayer" and another proclaiming "Rose the Teacher." If there are any undecided voters here, I have not found them, and McCain does not seem to be looking. His red-meat message is not pitched to the wavering.
"Senator Obama's economic goal is, as he told Joe, quote, spread the wealth around," McCain warns, to angry cries of "Socialist!" Obama's tax plan "is not a tax cut -- it's just another government giveaway," McCain warns. "I won't let that happen to you. You're paying enough taxes."
Outside the rally, a man is handing out "Obama for Change" bumper stickers -- with a Soviet red star and the "g" rendered as a hammer-and-sickle.
There is an ugliness to the McCain campaign's closing days. Sarah Palin talks about "pro-America areas of this great nation." Minnesota Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann pronounces herself "very concerned that [Obama] may have anti-American views." Ohio Republican Sen. George Voinovich, ordinarily much more sensible, says, "With all due respect, the man is a socialist."
And McCain is the stoker in chief of the argument that Obama is Eugene V. Debs revisited. "Obama raises taxes on seniors, hardworking families to give 'welfare' to those who pay none," a McCain ad warns. "Joe, in his plain-spoken way, said this sounded a lot like socialism," McCain said in a recent radio address. "And a lot of Americans are thinking along those same lines."
The candidates have different visions about the proper role of government; these are fair, and important, grounds for debate. Obama has committed his share of fouls, scaring seniors about McCain's designs on their Social Security and Medicare and mischaracterizing McCain's health-care program.
And, yes, all hard-fought elections turn nasty, despite the best intentions of the candidates. But for all the hand-wringing over Swift-boating in 2004, those charges came from an outside group, not the candidate they sought to benefit, and went to John Kerry's character, not the legitimacy of his governing philosophy.
There are two equally worrying aspects of the toxic fallout from the McCain campaign's closing argument. The first is how much harder it will be for the next president to unite a divided country in the way that both McCain and Obama say they want. Ominous talk about socialism and welfare, about pro- and anti-America, threatens to make that task harder, no matter who is elected.
The second is the long-term damage to the ability to move beyond the stale "no new taxes" debate and have an adult discussion about how to raise the revenue the country needs to make investments for the future, even as it provides for an aging population.
McCain's angry denunciation of socialist wealth-spreading ignores the fact that the country has always had a progressive tax code. McCain himself once seemed to embrace the sensible notion that those who reap greater rewards should contribute more back.
"I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle-class Americans," he said in voting against the 2001 Bush tax cuts.
When McCain inveighs against Obama's plan to give tax credits to "those who pay none," he ignores the fact that the 40 percent who do not owe income tax still have 7.65 percent taken out in payroll taxes.
Even now, McCain's own health-care plan offers a tax credit to people who owe no income taxes. In Woodbridge, McCain brags about his own "refundable tax credit" to help people purchase insurance -- just minutes after assailing Obama's refundable credit as a "government giveaway."
"I make over $250,000 a year, between my wife and I," Thomas Jacoby, a 62-year-old contractor, tells me in Woodbridge. "I don't want to share it with anybody."
As any parent understands, sharing is not the most natural of human instincts. But government is fundamentally about sharing for the common good; taxes are, as Oliver Wendell Holmes said, the price of a civilized society.
McCain is running a campaign both uncivil and uncivilizing -- one I expect he will rue, win or lose.
marcusr@washpost.com
LOAD-DATE: October 22, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Carlos Barria -- Reuters; Sen. John McCain campaigns in Woodbridge on Saturday.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 22, 2008 Wednesday 2:00 PM EST
Government Contracting and Small Businesses
BYLINE: Carol D. Leonnig, Washington Post Government Accountability Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3102 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post government accountability reporter Carol D. Leonnig will be online Wednesday, Oct. 22 at 2 p.m. ET to discuss problems with the government's measurements of its contracting work with small businesses.
Washington Post government accountability reporter Carol D. Leonnig will be online Wednesday, Oct. 22 at 2 p.m. ET to discuss problems with the government's measurements of its contracting work with small businesses.
Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.
____________________
Bethesda, Md.: I recall that the Small Business Administration hired a new administrator who was supposed to help clean up some of the mess there, but that he has now moved on to Housing and Urban Development. He seemed to be more of a technocrat than a loyal Bushie, but are things any better as a result of his efforts, or is it same old/same old?
Carol D. Leonnig: Welcome everyone. And good afternoon. I'm Carol Leonnig, and I work on the Washington Post's National desk doing enterprise and investigative work looking at federal agencies. I'm interested to hear your questions on Small Business contracting by the federal government, so let's get started.
This first question is about Steve Preston, who used to lead SBA, and was asked by the President to lead HUD earlier this year when a somewhat disgraced HUD Secretary was pressured to resign his post amid a criminal investigation and contracting scandal at HUD.
Preston got high marks from his staff at SBA, and from the White House. Some small businesses had mixed reviews on his ability to clean up the errors in agencies' reports of how much work they did with small firms.
_______________________
Marriottsville, Md.: Hello Ms. Leonnig. I am looking to start an engineering consulting company in the next 12 months. I will be sole proprietor and initially it will be just me, but as I look at work to be bid, I may need to bring temporary help on board. How will the SBA loans work for someone like me needing money for start-up materials, printer, computer, paper for cards, brochures, etc.?
Carol D. Leonnig: This is really outside my expertise, so I would recommend that you tap into the Small Business Administration's office of small business advocate. They have a very good website on the loans, as well as shared information and advice on starting up.
_______________________
Washington: The Defense Industrial Initiatives Group at CSIS has been looking at some of these issues from the service-contracting side for about four years. Given the range of errors we've seen in the FPDS, your findings seem quite sound and add a lot to the discussion. I'm curious whether you looked at the issue of small-business set-asides. We're adding some information on that to the next version of our free report, and the issue becomes much more serious if large companies are not just being called small businesses but are getting contracts specifically set aside for small businesses. Thanks again, and good work.
Carol D. Leonnig: Great question. For this specific article, the Post focused on the prime contracts and whether agencies were really meeting the goal or overstating. Obviously, we only skimmed the surface, and found a surprising amount of glaring errors... some of which an average taxpayer without any small business knowledge could spot as a mistake. However, what I heard over and over again in my reporting was that many parts of the contracting stats were skewed and overstated -- and that small businesses feel very much cast aside and outmuscled -- in both prime contracts, and subcontracting. We will do some more reporting on set-asides, but again, what we hear from critics of that system are two problems: first, firms with connections get the work, and second, some firms assert they are small or disadvantaged, but no one is really checking.
_______________________
Denver: Does an 80-person woman-owned company qualify for different treatment?
Carol D. Leonnig: This is one of those fascinating things about our federal government. There is no one-size-fits-all definition for a small business. It all depends on the category of work you are competing to perform.
So an 80-employee women-owned business could have an advantage in competing for some work. It could also get preferences in bidding on work that is explicitly tailored for small, minority and disadvantaged businesses. These programs provide some chance for small firms, including those owned by women, African-Americans, veterans and the disabled, to compete with each other for work, rather than with mega-corporations.
_______________________
Anonymous: Given the bleeding and misuse of money in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and Katrina aftermath, why do you think nothing has been done to track government spending? Do you feel it is incompetence, or outright corruption?
Carol D. Leonnig: I hear you on federal spending. And maybe that's what has small business owners so up in arms. Federal expenditures and contracting are going through the roof in the last four years, but the piece of the pie provided to small businesses is actually falling as a percentage.
As for whether this is incompetence or fraud, as a reporter, I stick with what I know from documents and sources who clearly know. And at this point, all I can say is that every federal agency we scrutinized is making multi-million-dollar errors in crediting themselves with doing work with small businesses. Some of the errors are so obvious, it raises questions about how those agencies could make such a clear-cut mistake.
Electric Boat is one of my favorite examples. How can the Pentagon and the Navy not know, that this company, a submarine builder for a century and now a division of General Dynamics, is not a small business. Yet that's what they claimed.
_______________________
Kansas City, Mo.: The article notes that the SBA lacks the staff and the clout to effectively monitor awards to small businesses. The current acting SBA Administrator is the wrong person for the job. He previously headed the Commerce Department's Economic Development Administration, has no record advocating for or working with small businesses, and spent time at the agency reducing agency staff, refusing badly needed additional financial and human capital resources, failing to standardize agency operations, and failing to formulate a strategic plan to efficiently and effectively lead the agency.
Carol D. Leonnig: SBA's staff has been one of the hardest hit in budgets during this administration. The GAO just reported that the SBA staff dropped roughly 26 percent since President Bush's first term.
Today, acting SBA administration said he was committed to making sure errors in small business contracting were fixed, but said he hadn't had time in his short tenure to assess whether more staff need to be put on that particular task.
_______________________
Tucson, Ariz.: These small business errors seem to be an ongoing theme of incompetence, poor work performance and no accountability on the part of government agencies/employees. Anyone working in the private sector with these job performances would be fired. What can the ordinary citizen do to shape up the government? Are there citizen oversight committees or organizations in existance to join? Is there an Internet site(s) for improving the transparency of these agencies?
Carol D. Leonnig: One element of this reporting that I found pretty fascinating was that there are no penalties for making these enormous errors. Today at a press conference, another reporter asked the acting SBA administrator why the SBA couldn't find these problems if a House subcommittee staff could (a few years ago) and if a Washington Post reporter did now. The question was never really answered.
But what my sources in government tell me is that SBA has very little clout, and that the only people who can make this a priority are the White House and the Office of Management and Budget. OMB issued an order last year that agencies had to ensure their data for FY 2007 was correct. Yet the agencies missed the government-wide goal again this year, and there appears to be no penalty.
As for citizens getting involved, there are both House and Senate subcommittees on Small business very active on this issue, chaired by Nydia Velazquez and John Kerry, respectively.
_______________________
Seattle: I initially started my career working for a defense contractor in Northern Virginia. It was considered a small business under some of the agencies. At the time it was geting close to a line with employees, so it spun off one division as a stand-alone company. The company was in essence a subsidiary of SAIC, when you consider that it owned at the time about 25 percent of the internal company stock.
What I noticed with contracting -- and you really didn't address this specifically for a layman in the article -- is that some small businesses are fronts for large businessess. For example a contract is awarded to a small business under the definition, they retain 51 percent of the contract, but then subcontract the other 49 percent of the contract to the larger companies.
At the company I was working for, a contract was awarded to my company but then the subcontractors on the contract consisted of people from Raytheon, SAIC, Johns Hopkins and a few other large companies. I can understand the problem with the governemnt if they do not have an up-to-date list of what companies are really owned by what companies -- many defense contractors are partly or entirly owned by large parent companies such as SAIC or Lockheed. I am also willing to bet that the government employees trying to verify the company status will call the company to ask them, trying to trust them.
Carol D. Leonnig: Great comment. I have heard this often in my reporting, and find it an area very much worth pursuing. Some fronts are very easy to prove; others more complicated because they involve corporate insiders. I'd be happy to talk to you in person or on the phone about your ideas.
_______________________
Washington: What steps, specifically, are being taken by the SBA to rectify the problem and to renew integrity? Is there any hope that this issue will go away?
Carol D. Leonnig: Honestly, let's be practical. Nobody at SBA is going to say this at a press conference, but we are in the final hours of the Bush administration. The only way this will be resolved is if the next administration, whomever that may be, makes this a priority to fix.
Small business owners argue to me that nobody is fixing this problem because the big corporations are happy getting the bulk of the work, and the political appointees are just happy that the big corporations (also big donors) are happy.
The small businesses certainly have less power in this Washington power grid. Some have banded together to make their case.
And as the economy continues to falter into recession, small businesses may have a better argument that doing work with them will help restore and grow jobs.
_______________________
Washington: Carol, thank you so much for your article on the government not doing as much business with small businesses. I am a certified woman-owned small-business on the GSA schedule, specializing in temporary placement of contract attorneys, paralegals, law clerks, technology and executive management people in law firms, legal departments in corporations and legal departments within the government.
The process of getting on the GSA schedule is a lengthy one (three years). After we were approved, we tried numerous times to do business with the Anti-Trust Division of the Department of Justice and other divisions of Justice, only to see CACI get the business. This happened with Lockheed Martin as well. We would love to get more of the contracts directly with Justice without subcontracting with CACI or Lockheed. We also would like to directly contract with other legal departments within the government. How can this be done?
Carol D. Leonnig: I don't know the answer, in all candor. It sounds like you're run the traps you were supposed to. Without knowing more about the specific contracts of work, the bidding details, its hard to know whether there was something inappropriate about other large contractors being chosen to win the work.
If you think there's something fishy, you could head to the SBA's Inspector General for their take. If you just want to better position yourself, I would recommend the SBA's small biz advocacy office.
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Alexandria, Va.: Carol, I work with a number of small businesses and was happy to see your article today. I know this issue has been growing for the past several years and am glad you are on top of it. I wanted to let you know that this is only the tip of the iceberg, because large corporations already have found another loophole. Large businesses basically are partnering with small businesses -- and I use that word very loosely.
The small business bids on the contract and wins it, but it's the large corporation that does all the work, including writing the proposal. Some don't even hide it. For example, on a small-business Web site they may say that if you want to order from commercial accounts click on their logo, but if you are a government customer click on the logo of the large corporation. I would love to talk with you about this issue as well as it plays into the same issue you wrote about today -- large businesses are taking more and more contracts from legitimate small businesses.
Carol D. Leonnig: Another great area of inquiry, and one I've heard mentioned before. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Please feel free to call me at the National Desk, 334-7410, and ask them to connect you to Carol Leonnig.
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Washington: Hello Carol -- thanks for your expertise on this. In a related subject, what are your thoughts about efforts in Congress to loosen the criteria for qualifying as a small business? Specifically I'm refering to allowing small firms that are owned up to 99 percent by two or more venture capital firms to meet small-business eligibility requirements.
Carol D. Leonnig: Very interesting issue, one being scrutinized by SBA and several agency IGs. I contacted a venture capital firm about a few dozen firms it owned which were listed as small businesses by agencies. Yet the owner was enormous, raising questions about whether its subs could properly compete for work as small businesses. I still don't have a firm answer.
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Washington: In the article you mention the American Small Business League ... how representative is this organization of small businesses in the U.S., and why is its voice not heard more often -- and more loudly -- on the issues you raise?
Carol D. Leonnig: I'd like to give a tip of the hat to The American Small Business League, which has definitely shone a light on this problem for years and which is like a junkyard dog on the subject. It, and leader Lloyd Chapman, will not give up.
That said, I think at times the organization has been viewed as so strident in its arguments that it has turned off some of its adversaries, and even some of its potential allies. That's not my field of expertise, but I've picked up on that vibe in reporting on this relatively small community of folks who work in small business contracting.
Still, at the core, despite the strong language and the as-yet unproven allegations of widespread government fraud, the league's complaints about the U.S. government overstating small businesses' share of federal work have been validated time and again by independent reporting.
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Virginia: Why did the SBA removed the Handicapped Loan Program in the 1980s? There is nothing now for people with disabilities. Thanks.
Carol D. Leonnig: I'm so sorry. I know nothing about this loan program. I wish I could help you, but I can recommend you call SBA directly with that question.
SBA Answer Desk
1-800-U-ASK-SBA ( 1-800-827-5722 )
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Chantilly, Va.: How does one go about requesting price considerations on contracts/requests for proposals that a SDB/Hub-zone company is entitled to? I know that if a hub-zone business is competing with another small or large business, the contracting officer has to give some price considerations to Hub-Zone company, up to 8 percent, but how does one request that without upsetting the contracting officer/evaluator of the bid?
Carol D. Leonnig: This is a good question for one of the many associations that advocate for small disavantaged businesses and Hub-zone firms. It seems like a delicate dance for which someone in that field would be much better at giving advice.
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Washington: Any thoughts on who would be appointed SBA administrator under an Obama or McCain administration?
Carol D. Leonnig: We've been doing some reporting here at the Post about the transition teams for Obama and McCain camps, and their first priority is naming top-flight economics advisers for this enormous bailout of Wall Street firms, banks and mortgage institutions. Possible SBA names are being bandied around, but I have no confirmed intel for you at this point.
Also one of the operating theories is that in a McCain administration, he would keep on deck some of those political appointees who worked in the Bush administration, so there would be less changeover.
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Washington: Thanks for a great article, Carol. I'm on your side on this issue, but looking solely at the numbers ($5 billion out of $89 billion in contracts erroneously reported) seems to put things in proportion; I mean, $5 billion is a lot of money, but it's still only about 6 percent of the total contracts. Shouldn't government agencies get a 6 percent margin of error?
Carol D. Leonnig: Point taken. And that's word for word the point that acting administrator Sandy Baruah made today in a press conference about the errors. In the best case scenario, that makes sense.
But what small businesses argue is that the Post identified $5 billion in errors while only looking at a small sample ($13 billion of the $89 billion) of contracts that agencies claimed went to small firms.
So we really don't know what the true error rate is yet.
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Carol D. Leonnig: Well, thanks everyone. Back to writing for the next day's paper. Your questions were great. And feel free to stay in touch when you have suggestions about contracting and small business reporting and how our federal agencies are doing in hiring firms for government services.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 22, 2008 Wednesday 12:00 PM EST
The Reliable Source: Palin Wardrobe, Tina Fey, Jessica Cutler, The Kennedys
BYLINE: Amy Argetsinger and Roxanne Roberts, Washington Post Staff Writers, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 7691 words
HIGHLIGHT: Reliable Source columnists Amy Argetsinger and Roxanne Roberts were online Wednesday, Oct. 22, at Noon ET to discuss your favorite gossip, what you think about their recent columns or who you want to see them writing about in future ones.
Reliable Source columnists Amy Argetsinger and Roxanne Roberts were online Wednesday, Oct. 22, at Noon ET to discuss your favorite gossip, what you think about their recent columns or who you want to see them writing about in future ones.
In Wednesday's New Reliable Source Blog: We don't think the McCain-Palin team meant to advertise alongside the fake-Palin porno. D.C. reality series ruins friendships before it even airs. Tina Fey says Palin is "five times better-looking." Courtroom dramas for Britney, Duchovny, Pepa.
In recent days: Leo a no-show at Italian gala. Sarah Jessica Parker's Washingtonienne drama won't have much Jessica Cutler in it. High-powered D.C. lawyer by day, high-roller by night. Diplomats stay diplomatic about the election. Snowmobile vs. snowmachine?
E-mail and bookmark Reliable Source Blog.
A transcript follows.
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Amy Argetsinger: Good morning everyone. Don't forget, we can also talk about Madonna's divorce. Or did we tackle that last week? Anyway, she's still getting divorced, and A-Rod is either still or Kabbalah soulmate or never was. Looking forward to your questions.
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Alexandra: That Italian American dinner sounded really entertaining, even without Leonardo DiCaprio there. Did you guys get the chance to talk to Jack Valenti? From the picture in your paper, it looks like he was there.
Amy Argetsinger: Stop teasing us, you meanie! Answer, and link, to follow.
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washingtonpost.com: No Leo but Plenty of Stellas at NIAF Gala ( Post, Oct. 20)
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Hollywood, Calif.: Okay, guys, we're fans of the column, but a bunch of us has to ask: How on earth did a picture from 2006, featuring Jack Valenti, who died in April, 2007, at the age of 85, appear with the item on the Italian Foundation dinner on Monday, October 20, 2008, saying that Valenti attended and "mingled" at the 2008 dinner?
washingtonpost.com: Corrections
Amy Argetsinger: Thanks for asking. Obviously, this was a terrible mistake, one that caused me to nearly spit out my toast with Nutella (from the gala gift bag) when I saw it in the paper Monday morning.
What happened is this: A layout editor, working late at night, was looking for more photos of the event to go along with the Gina Lollabrigida photo, and because of the search terms plugged in, the photo database coughed up an image from the same event two years ago. And somehow none of the late-night editors who glanced at the page noticed the mistake before it went to print. Also fair to note that the other two guys in the photo -- Mel Brooks and Alan Alda -- were NOT at this year's event. I mean, don't you think I'd have mentioned them in the story instead of Boom Boom Mancini?
Anyway, everyone felt terrible about it Monday morning, and the correction ran yesterday. It also made us very nostalgic for Mr. Valenti whom we all miss. It's not a black-tie gala without him.
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The Palin Makeover: So, the GOP has spent $150,000 on clothes, hair styling, and makeup artistry for Gov. Palin and family! I'm thinking Nancy Pelosi doesn't spend that much in 3 months (maybe because it's her own money, not someone else's), and she usually is flawless. Not sure whether I'm outraged, disgusted, or merely understanding why bloggers refer to the VP candidate as "Bible Spice." Your thoughts?
Roxanne Roberts: My thoughts: That's a LOT of money, even if they bought an entire wardrobe for her. Which----given that most people are cutting back and afraid to spend much right now---doesn't exactly fit with the "average hockey mom" persona. Even if they felt she needed a wardrobe makeover, someone at the campaign made a bad call by shopping at high-end stores.
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Separated at Birth?: This occurred to me last week when Paul Krugman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. Someone else did all the work putting the pictures next to each other in one Web site:
Clooney/Klugman ( Google Images)
Amy Argetsinger: That link should say "Krugman" not "Klugman" (though we don't write enough about Jack Klugman, do we?)... Eerie, isn't it?
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Potomac, Md.: Where are Sargent and Eunice Shriver, at 92 and 87 years old, going to live if and when they sell their Potomac house for $11 million? Where are they moving to? And why is the Shriver son not having the Best Buddies fundraising ball any more? Why hold a bike race instead of a ball to raise money? Why not just hold the Best Buddies ball at another location? There are several hundred -- more than 500, at least -- alternate possible locations for the ball.
washingtonpost.com: Annual Best Buddies Ball Rolls to a Glitzy Finale ( Post, Oct. 20)
Roxanne Roberts: The Shrivers are selling the place because they don't really live there anymore. Eunice, 87, and Sargent, 92, both ave serious health issues and spend most of their time at the homes of their kids or the Kennedy compound in Massachusetts.
As for the ball---after 20 years, it's not a bad idea to change formats. Fundraising is getting increasingly hard,and events can get "been there, done that" after a few years. Maybe a bike fundraiser will attract a new group of donors.
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Jealous: If I'd offered to run for vice president, would the Republican National Committee have bought me a $150,000 new wardrobe too?
Roxanne Roberts: You betcha!
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Rockville, Md.: What is Sarah Jessica Parker thinking? Her plans for her new HBO "show" sounds simply like a lame, lazy rip-off of her previously overrated "Sex and the City." Why spend money and time purchasing the rights to "The Washingtonienne," which has its own distinct and original character, style, vibe and atmosphere, if you're just going to ignore the book and its atmosphere and produce a lame "Sex and the City" rip-off? And how involved is Jessica Cutler, the original Washingtonienne who wrote the book, in the television show? Did you talk to Cutler? And what is she doing now? What does Cutler think about Parker's plans for her book?
Amy Argetsinger: We finally reached Jessica, too late to get into print, and she's sanguine about the whole thing. I think her line was, "it's a TV series, not a documentary!" She's impressed by SJP and excited to see how it works out. I don't think she has much involvement with the series at this point.
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Is it true...: that the GOP spent $75,000 at Neimann Marcus on clothes for the Palins?
washingtonpost.com: RNC Shells Out $150K for Palin Fashion ( Politico, Oct. 22)
Amy Argetsinger: Here's one story that lays it out.. .
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Pledge Drive: Roxanne --
Loved hearing you on WAMU on Saturday morning during the pledge drive: "We don't need your support. My cat gives me support. We need your money!"
Roxanne Roberts: The brutal truth of pledge drives. My mission was to make it a tiny bit less horrible.
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washingtonpost.com: Washington's Last Corner Of Camelot Is On the Market Reliable Source, Sept. 12)
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Falls Church, Va.: Don't know if anyone cares, but cute cop and I have been living together for a couple of months now. He has accepted a job in California (big promotion) so we'll be moving in December. I hope my dog likes the beaches in Coronado.
Amy Argetsinger: Oh, we absolutely care. That's great news. Are you excited about SoCal? You should pick up surfing.
(To those of you wondering: Yes, this is a long-running saga we've been following, ever since Falls Church asked us for advice about the cute cop neighbor who was always being nice and helpful. So bring us your love questions -- Hax is really too busy -- and we'll give you terrible advice, and maybe it will all work out for you too!)
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Sweet Seventeen: Madonna is 17 years older than A-Rod. Does that qualify as a cougar pounce?
Amy Argetsinger: Stipulated that that's an offensive term, blah blah blah -- yeah, I think so.
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Maryland: Do you girls and Wonkette ever get together?
Amy Argetsinger:"Girls"? Um, thanks?... I've had the pleasure of getting to know most of the editors who've run Wonkete over the past three years -- at least those who live here; there are a couple on board right now who work from afar, I think, and who I haven't met.
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Palin's wardrobe: Not necessarily high-end fashion clothes. Could just be expensive because they were bullet-proofed. When you live in a state that has some parts close to Russia, you need to be careful.
Amy Argetsinger: Ha!
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Potomac, Md.: Some of the recent stories weren't clear about why Leonard Slatkin left the NSO to go to -- Detroit? Why leave the NSO, the Kennedy Center, Washington, D.C.? No offense to Detroit, which is a great town, but the city's cultural scene, its symphony, and its symphony home literally don't quite match the levels of the NSO and the Kennedy Center, and Detroiters admit as much. One Detroiter, when told that Slatkin was coming there, recently said, "Why is he coming here?" So why is he going to Detroit?
Roxanne Roberts: My guess? Time for a change. He recently split from his wife, ran a respectable but not steller course at the NSO, and is probably looking for a new challenge and fresh start. Plus, Detroit is not his only gig: He's guest conductor of the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra, the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra, and works with the Nashville Symphony Orchestra.
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Palin fashion makeover: Well, at least she can shoot her own fur coat.
Roxanne Roberts: Best line of the day!
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Another Last Corner of Camelot: Did Ethel Kennedy ever sell HIckory Hill?
Amy Argetsinger: Nope, still on the market last we checked. And a bargain, now, at a mere $12.5 million.
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"Reality TV Hard On Friendships": Duh...because nobody is 100 percent perfect, 100 percent happy, or 100 percent easy to get along with.
Amy Argetsinger: And how do you think reality-TV cameras and the glare of publicity factor into that?
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Ratchet the dog: It warmed my heart to read that Ratchet the Iraq puppy befriended by a U.S. soldier is safely in Washington and headed to his new home in Minneapolis this afternoon after 68K people signed a petition to bring him to America. I know, it's just one little dog, but I'm happy for him and the young soldier who will be welcomed by him when she returns.
washingtonpost.com: Happy Ending: Soldier, Puppy to Be Reunited ( Post, Oct. 21)
Roxanne Roberts: Awwww---me too. It was stupid that officials were so inflexible about it to begin with. I do, however, hope someone gave Ratchet a warm doggie coat---winters in Minnesota will be a shock to the little guy.
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New Blog: I'm finding it a bit confusing. Your names and pics are at the top, but Marissa writes all the entries? Are you exchanging some of your columns for blog entries?
Amy Argetsinger: New format, if you haven't noticed. That's our regular old print column, but presented in a way that we hope will more reader-friendly online -- more photos, easier to link to and comment on, easier to find your way back to. Those first four entries when you go to our column link are the same four items you see in print today. Marissa's name showing up there is a technical oddity, based on the fact that she's inserting the photos and is thus the first person to handle the story files. Either that or it's going to turn out that she's the puppet master who really runs this show.
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Falls Church, Va.: We're really stoked about the move, and as a native of Florida, it'll be up to me to teach cute cop Paul how to surf.
Thanks for all of your advice!
Amy Argetsinger: Good for you. Well, I hope you stay in touch in the chats, even though they'll be at 9 a.m. for you. Good luck with the move. There are supposedly all kinds of amazing real estate bargains in the San Diego area now.
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Philadelphia, Pa.: Please congratulate Falls Church! Hooray for happy endings and new beginnings. Best of luck to you both.
Roxanne Roberts: The first Reliable Source romance. Maybe we should run Date Lab!
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Wardrobes: Have either of you ever spent $150K on upscale garments in two months? Boggles the minds of those of us shopping at TJ Maxx and Marshalls.
Roxanne Roberts: Oh, pleeeese! Amy and I together haven't spent $150K in our lifetimes on clothing. They never heard of the sale rack?
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Marriage Advice: The wife comes home from a business trip tonight.
From a woman's perspective, what should I do to make her feel welcome after a trip-other than cleaning the house to what I think are her expectations?
She will be sad if Beckham does not return from Milan next year. Boo hoo
Amy Argetsinger: Have dinner ready. And, well, you know.
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washingtonpost.com: Reliable Source Blog
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Washingtonienne: If you're going to do a series on young career women in Washington, both Dog Days by Ana Marie Cox (erstwhile Wonkette) and the books by Kristin Gore (Sammy's House and Sammy's Hill) are much better written and I suspect more accurate depictions of this sub-genre. Plus, Gore's heroine has a BF who is a sharky Washington Post political reporter.
Amy Argetsinger: Actually... Cutler's book got some not bad reviews, including from our own Jonathan Yardley, if I recall. We'll pull up a link.
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Well, at least she can shoot her own fur coat: Would that be moose, with polar bear trim?
Amy Argetsinger: That would be HOT.
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Palin vs. Brangelina: Sarah Palin and her brood schlepping around the country is starting to remind me more and more of Brangelina, and not in a good way, I might add. Why aren't the Palin girls in school this time of year? Did the pregnant eldest daughter drop out? And on a similar note, are Obama's daughters in school this fall?
Amy Argetsinger: Good questions, none of which we can answer with certainty and accuracy off the top of our heads but we'll look into it.
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"My cat gives me support.": You must have an unusual cat. My cat pretends to give support, but it's all a carefully crafted method of getting some treat for herself.
Roxanne Roberts: Once in a while, after there's plenty of food in the dish, he'll curl up on my lap and start madly purring. His brother has dibs whenever I'm sitting at the computer. I realize my main role is a reliable food delivery system I still like it.
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In fairness: Has any journalist investigated whether Michelle Obama or Jill Biden ever gets any of their clothes thanks to the DNC?
Amy Argetsinger: I believe the Politico story said they could not find any comparable expenses in the DNC filings.
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Washington, D.C.: Is it just me, or do your other readers get this empty, depressed, I need-a-shower feeling I have upon following your discussions? This is the third chat of yours I've read, and I can't take it anymore, I tell you ... thanks.
Amy Argetsinger: So... why are you here? No, seriously -- I'm curious.
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Amy -- you are absolutely right: I hate that Cougar term. So insulting and demeaning. If a man is dating someone 17 years younger, there is nothing wrong with that. For a woman, there is something predatory about that. I can deal with making fun of Hillary Clinton's pantsuits or Sarah Palin's answers, but this is really insulting.
Amy Argetsinger: Thanks.
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Pelham Park: Ladies, Our little church group got to see Equus this past week. Really heavy drama, and no singing or dancing. Also, I realize Broadway is more minimalist now than ever but that poor Daniel Radcliffe didn't even have a costume for a good deal of the first act!
Amy Argetsinger: It hasn't been getting great reviews. Apparently the story seems pretty hackneyed and dated, from what the critics I've read have said.
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Washington, D.C.: A question I must know the answer to so I can figure out how much credibility to give your chat/column: do either of you have pets?
Roxanne Roberts: Never NOT had pets. Grew up with dogs, cats, fish, hamsters, birds. Currently own two Siamese cats.
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washingtonpost.com: Capitol Hill Siren's Tell-All Fiction
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Amy Argetsinger: Sorry, meant to add to that pet question. I used to have two cats, but one died (natural causes) and I lost a custody fight over the other to my parents.
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Best Buddies: I obviously went to the Best Buddies ball at exactly the wrong time, between its early fun phase as a smallish dinner and its glamour phase (about to end.) It was the early 90s, and I went there at the behest of a PR person I knew, who was trying to find friends to go with. I didn't understand why until we got there. The "ball" (I don't recall there being any dancing or even an option to dance) took place at a large auditorium somewhere downtown (who remembers?) where we were subjected to endless appearances on stage by pre-Kathy Griffin D-list celebs, lamely and ignorantly extolling the virtues of this charity they knew nothing about. There were rumors that JFK Jr. was going to show, but he didn't. We got Wilt Chamberlain instead. This was immediately after his book came out, the one in which he bragged about having slept with 20,000 women. It was bizarre and skeevy, and I was sorry I had spent money on it. I would have preferred to make a larger donation to Planned Parenthood or WAMU.
Roxanne Roberts: I bet a lot of people went hoping JFK Jr. would show up.
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Silver Spring, Md.: You have a blog! Now I'll never get any work done!
Amy Argetsinger: It's really just our print column in a more online-friendly format. Eventually we may start posting more stuff during the day. And if you post a comment, we might respond.
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Arlington, Va.: Any word on what Piper Palin is going to be for Halloween?
Amy Argetsinger: Something ADORABLE, I'm sure. Seriously, this could be the GOP's October Surprise that changes everything.
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Newark, Del.: I saw a promo for a new Patrick Swayze series last night. Is this a recycle or has he recovered? He looked great in the promo. There hasn't been much in the press on his condition. Thanks.
Amy Argetsinger: This is a series that he started work on since his pancreatic cancer diagnosis. Supposedly he's doing well, though the prognosis is rarely good with that particular form of cancer.
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Washingtonienne: I went to a Jessica Cutler book signing a few years back to get a copy for a friend of mine in California who was obsessed with the story (Seriously, it was not me). I asked her to sign it to my friend Tony, so which she signed "To Tony, the best sex of my life." I didn't ask her to do that, but it oddly made me respect her so much more.
Amy Argetsinger: That's strangely impressive. I mean, she knows what the fans want. Good for her.
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Thanks for answering my blog question: I think it was only confusing to those of us who don't read the print version of The Post and only read your columns online.
But know that I "get it" I do think the blog format will be easier to follow, so that's cool.
Amy Argetsinger: More photos! That's always good.
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New York: The big question -- will the Washingtonienne TV show help get Jessica Cutler out of bankruptcy? Or is she not making money off this show?
Amy Argetsinger: This is what I'd love to know. She probably got a check when they sold the TV rights; does her deal allow for more money if the show airs and prospers? People tend to be cagey with these kind of financial details, though.
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Palin's Wardrobe: I'd like to defend the expenditure, but I'm laughing too hard to pull together something coherent. Too bad no one in the GOP watches "What Not to Wear," because they would have realized that a respectable wardrobe could be put together for $5k.
$150k is the budget a Windsor would need when attending many ceremonial functions and changing clothes 4 times a day. And having to look royal while doing so, instead of merely respectable.
Roxanne Roberts: That's the thing: Gov. Palin just needs to look neat and well groomed. No fancy dresses or jewelry. No need for a $3,000 suit when a $300 suit would do just fine. It's really tone-deaf to spend that much during the campaign.
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Currently own two Siamese cats. : Oh, ha ha. Nobody "owns" Siamese cats. They would be so insulted if they knew you said that!
Roxanne Roberts: I NEVER let them see the chat.
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Currently own two Siamese cats. : Rox, your chat needs a copy editor. Surely you meant to say "Currently owned by two Siamese cats."
Roxanne Roberts: So true. One of them casually destroyed my couch arm, and I love him anyway.
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The Great Beyond: I see Richard Blackwell bit the dust. Did he have a real job or did some Hollywood entity actually pay him to spew his fashion advice?
Amy Argetsinger: Apparently he had a regular writing gig with one of the tabloids. We'll post a link to Robin Givhan's story on him.
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Indianapolis: I had no idea Jack Valenti had passed away until I read your chat just now. Um, thanks for informing me.
Amy Argetsinger: Our copy editors will feel a whole better knowing they're not alone here.
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Tysons Corner, Va.: What are your thoughts on Tysons kicking out their long-time Santa? I'm kinda sad about it...
washingtonpost.com: Longtime Mall Santa Out in the Cold ( Post, Oct. 22)
Amy Argetsinger: Sad story. And a great story. I predict Tysons Santa be booked on the Today show by the end of the day and will have a new job by the end of the week. Just my guess.
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washingtonpost.com: The Pins and Needles of Outrageous Fashionl ( Post, Oct. 21)
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Capitol Hill : PLEASE tell me what was going on at the Sewall Belmont house last night...one of the policemen told me that the POTUS was there but why? All I wanted was a chance to see my wedding reception venue all done up for a party but I couldn't get within four blocks of the place. thanks.
Amy Argetsinger: Got your answer: The National Republican Senatorial Committee was having a fundraiser there last night.
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New York: Can you help me figure out what Gisele Bundchen sees in Tom Brady ?
Amy Argetsinger: Ladies? (Or gentlemen?) Anyone want to weigh in on this?
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Palin's Shopping Spree: I still think John Edwards overpaid for his $400 haircut.
Amy Argetsinger: The Hair Cuttery would agree.
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Washington, D.C.: I have it from a very very reliable source that Nancy Pelosi does indeed drop some coin on her clothes at Neimans in D.C. and probably gives Palin more than a run for her money
Amy Argetsinger: No secret: Pelosi wears a lot of Armani. Her husband picks out a lot of her suits.
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Washington, D.C.: Do you know if Bruce Springsteen will be in town for the Washington Horse Show? His daughter Jessica competes and they've been here before. Not that I'm planning on stalking or anything.
Amy Argetsinger: That's that the horse show people are promising. Also Mike Bloomberg's daughter and... the daughter of another rich guy, I can't remember which.
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Cutie palin halloween costume: Oh please be the purple Teletubby! Or she could be Tina Fey and her sister could be pregnant Amy Poehler.
Amy Argetsinger: Adorable!
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Washingtonn, D.C.:"If a man is dating someone 17 years younger, there is nothing wrong with that."
Really? Is that the conventional wisdom at this point? I actually find that pretty creepy. (I'm a man by the way. One who could legally date a woman 17 years younger than me.)
Roxanne Roberts: It's not creepy, per se. (Each to his/her own.) I think it makes less difference the older the people are---but still, after a while, what do they talk about?
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Anonymous: That Huckabee show is a real dog. I caught it by accident the other day. How is your plan for the Huckabee Variety show going or will this kill the deal ?
Amy Argetsinger: I think it improves my chances, especially if I can sign Piper. Because my show is going to be like totally different. You'll love it.
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Dogs Welcome on Coronado Beach: Soon to be former Falls Churcher and the cute cop are in luck; there's a formal "dog beach" on Coronado, north of the "Hotel Del" (where Some Like It Hot was filmed)
Coronado Dog Beach
"Coronado's Dog Beach is leash-free year-round on the western part of the beach. It's marked by signs that run along Ocean Blvd. from Sunset Park on Ocean Drive to the border of the U.S. Naval Station. For scenery, it doesn't get much better than this. On one side there's the beautiful Hotel del Coronado; the Point Loma skyline fills the view to the north."
Roxanne Roberts:"Some Like It Sandy"
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Palin costume: How cute would she be as Joe the Plumber?
Amy Argetsinger: Ohmygod, SO adorable! That's my new first choice now. We have to make that happen.
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After a business trip: I find my wife likes to be greeted with flowers and kisses on the back of the neck. Just sayin'.
Amy Argetsinger: What you said.
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Wait a minute: As a guy who is over 35 and still single, I think there is always a chance that a guy dating someone that much younger is a predator. Clearly not always the case, but when I meet a woman that much younger than me I have to admit I'm wary of the father issue possibility and when I meet a guy who seems to date only young women, I immediately am suspicious of his motivations psychosis as well.
Amy Argetsinger: Fair enough. The whole "women mature faster than men" argument only goes so far.
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Palin's wardrobe: Remember, she's standing on a stage next to Cindy McCain's rich outfits.
Roxanne Roberts: Cindy's not a candidate---and she has her own checkbook. Big difference.
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Kensington, Md.: Wow, that bit in your blog about the porno and the banner ads almost caused a coffee spit take.
I do have to say, as a blue-blooded Dem, I thought Gov. Palin did a pretty good job on SNL. I still would never vote for her. In fact, my GOP brother changed his choice after she was picked with the comment, "I used to respect Sen. McCain". My bro has never voted Dem in his life. And he's in Florida.
washingtonpost.com: They Don't Approve THIS Message! ( Post, Oct. 22)
Amy Argetsinger: What do we think -- does anyone change their vote based on a SNL appearance?
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Depressed person who needs a shower : Dear Depressed Person: Please stop the hating. I'm so sorry you don't like this chat. Please go to Sietsema's chat if you don't like this one -- he rarely dishes (pun intended) on anyone, except the occasional snooty-pants chef. This chat is one of the highlights of my week. And I say this as someone who bounds out of bed every day, happy to be alive, embracing what the day has to offer! I think you two are adorable.
Amy Argetsinger: Now that you highlight the depressed/non-showering part, I feel bad. Maybe we aren't taking this seriously enough. Hax would at least have cared enough to send this chatter to AmIDepressed.com or TalkToATrainedProfessional.org or something like that. Sorry!
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Why Tom Brady?: Because he's very hot in a perfect sort of way. You know that eventually, the discipline allowing him to be the best QB around will start to annoy . . . then you'll succumb to behaving badly cause he's so darn perfect and you're so alone.
But who wouldn't want to spend time with a guy like that? If he were in the military, he'd be a field general. There's just something striking about the ability to lead.
Amy Argetsinger: Okay, thanks for your vote.
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Kensington, Md.: Re: Giselle and Tom. If you believe TMZ, he's basically her errand boy, running out for coffees, to the store, whatever she wants. He's a lap dog with millions of dollars. Hey, I want a lap dog with millions of dollars!
Amy Argetsinger: Yeah, what's the problem here?
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Amy Argetsinger: So... why are you here? No, seriously -- I'm curious. : Thanks for taking this ... and I meant no disrespect toward either of you ...
To answer your question, I guess gossip is a guilty pleasure for me ... but I think less of myself when I indulge.
Roxanne Roberts: Don't be so hard on yourself. The gossip here is like chocolate----a small indulgence in an otherwise serious diet. We try not to pass on ugly rumor or untruths. So settle in and enjoy. It will be our little secret.
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If a man is dating someone 17 years younger, there is nothing wrong with that: John McCain was 43 and married, Cindy Hensley only 25 -- i.e., an 18-year difference -- when they hooked up.
Amy Argetsinger: Oh, and you know the cute story about how they both lied when they met -- he claimed he was five years younger, she claimed she was five years older or something? It's great.
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re: As for the ball -- after 20 years, it's not a bad idea to change formats. Fundraising is getting increasingly hard, and events can get "been there, done that" after a few years. : The old "Ball" demographic is aging, 80-90 years old just like the Shrivers. Younger boomers aren't interested in gala balls, they like more interactive fundraisers like runs, rides, wine tastings, etc.
Roxanne Roberts: There you go.
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Washington, DC: The difference- Pelosi spent her own money. The RNC spent donors' money. If I were a donor, I would wonder where the money was for MY 150k wardrobe.
Roxanne Roberts: And Pelosi can afford to pay for it herself.
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Bayou Way: Are there lessons to be learned from the mess former Miss Louisiana Teen, Lindsey Evans, finds herself in or is this maybe a good chance for her to launch a reality TV show biz career ?
Amy Argetsinger: This is the one who skipped out on a restaurant bill and left her purse with the marijuana in it behind?
I mean, would we have ever heard of Miss Louisiana Teen if this *hadn't* happened? Now she's destined to be a running thread on TMZ.
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Bethesda, Md.: Now that Falls Church is leaving the area do you think she might share a snap of her and her cute cop? I am dying to see them.
Amy Argetsinger: Oh, but I'd be so sad to learn all these messages have been coming from a 15-year-old boy!
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Grumpy Repbublican Here: OK, I think I should jump in here to defend the expenditure on Gov. Palin and her family. If you view it in the context of..what I mean, is that..
(Sigh)
Oh, blarney. I got nothing.
Roxanne Roberts: Can't WAIT to hear what the campaign has to say.
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Anonymous: Meow, Meow, growllll, meow, growllll, grrr, tehehe.
We read the chats.
The cats
Roxanne Roberts: That explains shredding the couch.
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What do we think -- does anyone change their vote based on a SNL appearance? : Sarah Palin's or Tina Fey's? I'm betting that people did change their opinion based on Tina Fey's appearance. SP, not so much. I don't know if anyone has checked in with Alec Baldwin since Saturday, however. Don't forget that he's single and looking, and middle-aged men in that state are known to do really stupid things.
Amy Argetsinger: Actually, Alec Baldwin posted an interesting essay on Huffington Post the other day defending SNL's decision to have Palin on. Apparently some of his left-leaning pals viewed SNL as their turf, and thought they were wrong to host the "enemy." And Baldwin was basically saying, c'mon, it's a comedy show, and she's a ratings tsunami, how can you NOT have her on the show?
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Hartford, Conn.: Hi Ladies. Have you met Cindy McCain? Do you think she is as much a "fish out of water" in Washington as the N.Y. Times indicated? Thanks.
washingtonpost.com: Behind McCain, Outsider in Capital Wanting Back In ( The New York Times, Oct. 17)
Amy Argetsinger: Haven't read the story yet, but it's true, she's spent very little time in Washington. Not her scene.
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"We try not to pass on ugly rumor or untruths.": Heck now I'm starting wonder what I'm doing here then?
Roxanne Roberts: We're a "safe for the office" chat. Heck, the editors wouldn't even let us print the name of the Palin porn movie. You'll have to Goggle it.
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Halloween: My nine-year-old granddaughter is just naturally funny. She entertains the kids on the bus with her Sarah Palin imitation and loves to say, "I can see Russia from my house," among other phrases.
Anyhow, for Halloween she's going as Sarah Palin, with her hair in a clip, glasses, a Miss Wasilla banner and a rifle. Her ten-year-old brother will be Russia, wearing a foam-core map of Russia, a Russian fur hat and a bear rug. Their five-year-old sister already wants to be a polar bear, so that fits right in. They're still trying to convince their seven-year-old brother to go as a moose. He says, "maybe," especially if he gets to carry a rifle and shoot back.
Their dad is worried that this will severely diminish their candy take. What do you think?
Amy Argetsinger: No, it's adorable. They'll clean up on Halloween.
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Clothes? What about makeup?: At least the $150,000 in clothing will last at least several months, presumably.
But, check THIS out: $13,200/month for her makeup.
Are you k-i-d-d-i-n-g?
It's $22,000/month for McCain and Palin combined for makeup. That is approximately the per capita annual income in this country, for one month of makeup that all washes away in the shower.
Where is my cake? (They're going to let me eat ...)
Roxanne Roberts: You know, historians say Marie Antoinette never actually said that.
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Are winebars still in vogue?: I think you all mentioned cocktail society in a column some time ago -- is that something I can join and does it mean I get to stay drunk most of the time?
Amy Argetsinger: Cocktail society is a state of mind. You can be the president and a member of this club.
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re: I still think John Edwards overpaid for his $400 haircut. : The critical difference being HE paid for that - -NOT regular folk who thought they were donating to elect representatives, not give them a high dollar makeover.
Amy Argetsinger: Actually, sorry -- his campaign committee picked up that bill. That's the only reason we all know about it.
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Falls Church, Va.: This chat rules. I gotten romance advice, dog beach advice. To the poster who has to shower, all I can tell you is you might need better deodorant.
Even though this is the ether of the Internet, I'll be working at 9 a.m. PST and probably unable to do what I do now, and that's chew a sandwich and enjoy. I'm going to miss this. So take a shower, go to bed, get some Zoloft, whatever.
Amy Argetsinger: Thanks. Well, stay in touch with us one way or another.
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Oh, and you know the cute story about how they both lied when they met -- he claimed he was five years younger, she claimed she was five years older or something?: He also lied when he said he was divorced.
Amy Argetsinger: Whoops.
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Do People Vote Based on SNL Appearances?: No, but I am waiting to see who Tony Danza endorses.
Amy Argetsinger: What about Kirk Cameron? Well, that's probably a no-brainer.
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Lessons to be learned: Lesson one: hide your stash better.
Lesson two: if you must dine and dash at least leave a nice tip.
Amy Argetsinger: Truly. Do they not teach etiquette in the Miss Louisiana Teen organization anymore?
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Palin just needs to look neat and well groomed.: She's a beauty queen, peeps! She needs fabulousness!
Amy Argetsinger: I think YOU're fabulicious for using that word.
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Custody hearing: I have an image of Amy's parents at one bench (well of someone's parents since I've never to my knowledge ever seen Amy's parents) sitting teary eyed at one table with Amy and her law team at the other and the judge asking the cat to choose. Where upon the cat opens an eye, licks a paw and resumes napping. When pressed the cat bolts and is caught by Amy's dad since Amy's Caribou and Polar bear coat tripped her up.
Okay yes, I've got too much time on my hands.
Amy Argetsinger: Oh, here's the thing that will outrage you: My dad is the Family Court judge in Schuyler County, NY. So clearly this was an abuse of power.
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Roxanne Roberts: Can't WAIT to hear what the campaign has to say.: Their initial response is that they were always planning on donating the clothes after the campaign. but if Palin is elected, she will have to buy... more clothes?
Roxanne Roberts: Donating? Yeah, right.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Arnold and Maria's 18-year-old daughter looked very pretty in that picture the other day -- what does she do? Is she a high school senior, or a college freshman, or is she working somewhere? What about the other Arnold-Maria kids -- how old are they?
Amy Argetsinger: I wish I had more time to research this question for you today. Fourth generation Kennedys are just as fascinating as third generation Kennedys, and we really don't know enough about them. How could a child of Arnold and Maria not be striking?
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re: Their dad is worried that this will severely diminish their candy take.: Send the kids to the RNC, apparently there giving away loads of stuff.
Roxanne Roberts: Yes!
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The new blog: Just looked for the first time and LOVE it. Maybe it's my age or generation or whatever, but really, I love it and the opportunity for comments too.
Amy Argetsinger: Why, thanks. We're hopeful.
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Fairfax, Va.: Why all the outrage over the amount spent on Palin's makeover? It's not taxpayer money, is it? If I donate to one of the two parties I pretty much leave it up to them on how to spend it wisely or otherwise.
Amy Argetsinger: Fair point. Caveat emptor, I guess.
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Palin's wardrobe: Interesting how this information came out the day after Mr. Blackwell died.
Amy Argetsinger: Sad, really.
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RE: Wine Bars: Cheesetique in Del Ray is one happening wine bar! Place is mad busy.
Amy Argetsinger: They do wine as well as cheese? My sister-in-law is a die-hard partisan of that place. She always has good cheese on hand.
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Tom Brady: Reading the posts about Tom and Giselle, he needs to stop hanging around with models and underemployed actresses. Frankly between the two (Tom and Leo DiCaprio), I'd go with Leo. He's not in danger of getting a concussion, among other things. And he might introduce me to his friend George Clooney.
Amy Argetsinger: Well, if he shows up, that is. Ah, just kidding. He's reportedly laid up with pneumonia, which has got to stink.
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Anonymous: Did you ever meet Skipper the dog?
Roxanne Roberts: I did! He's adorable---smallish for a lab, wearing black tie. I was at the embassy, sitting on the floor in my ball gown talking to Skipper, when other guests walked in and thought I'd fallen down in a drunken heap. I had to explain that, no, Skipper and I were just bonding.
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Kensington, Md.: Forget Madonna, George Clooney went back to Krista Allen?
Amy Argetsinger: According to the NY Daily News this a.m., anyway. So hard keeping track of these two crazy kids. She should set some boundaries here. And maybe hook up with a cute cop neighbor instead.
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Anonymous: I'm sorry about Mr. Blackwell but Jack Valenti is okay, right ?
Amy Argetsinger: Stop, you.
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Washington, D.C.: I'm liking the new web design. Did your agents threaten you guys would walk off the chat if you didn't get your photos attached?
Amy Argetsinger: Sort of the opposite. The deal with getting the new format is that they forced us to post a photo, and you know how weird we've always been about that. I hope to update that image of us sooner or later -- maybe one of the two of us with Jack Valenti?
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Dinner Tonight For Wife: Ok, I've got artisinal pasta, a chicken breast, some parm, and capers.
Amy Argetsinger: Don't forget salad. Ladies like salad. But you're on the right track.
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It was stupid that officials were so inflexible : I don't think so. I don't pay taxes so soldiers can adopt dogs, that's not their job, not why we're there. Good feelings, happy thoughts, and whatever, buy it is not the role of the governement to adopt or transport dogs.
Roxanne Roberts: The government didn't pay to transport the dog---that was paid by private donations and a volunteer organization. Really, a little kindness and humanity in what is otherwise a brutal posting isn't going to keep the soldiers from doing their jobs.
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Rosslyn, Va.: I'm sure you won't post this but I have to get this out. I like and respect SJP. However, let's be honest here The Washingtonienne is someone who sold their dignity and sex for money. And the people she slept with, not that it would make it better, were nobodies. Why are we rewarding people like Ms. Cutler for being nothing more than naive loose moron?
Amy Argetsinger: It's a business. SJP and HBO bought the story because they think they can make a series that people will want to watch. Simple as that.
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Arlington, Va.: Do you think LiLo will ever return to D.C. w/her DJ GF?
Amy Argetsinger: I hope so, because we really don't have enough initials or acronyms in our column.
Actually, probably not. Did you see her sulky blog posting on the subject? She didn't have a great time, apparently.
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Manhattan: Good Afternoon you two Goddesses of Gossip :
How exactly does Gwyneth Paltrow expect to comfort Madonna? Do you think Madonna is really that broken up over Guy?
Amy Argetsinger: Gwyneth Paltrow is exactly the person I turn to after a breakup. But she's always recommending vegan brownies and Pilates, which totally doesn't do it for me.
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Amy's Dad: What a coincidence. I just named my baby Schuyler.
Amy Argetsinger: Well, congratulations! And hope you stay out of Family Court.
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West Falls Church, Va.: Which is going to sell first?
The Shriver 11 mil house in Potomac or Hickory Hill for 12.5 mil in McLean? Which would you guys buy if you married a professional athlete or hit the lottery tomorrow?
Amy Argetsinger: I think I'd buy Halcyon House in Georgetown instead. After my $150K shopping spree.
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Name of Palin Movie: Hate to tell you - but the name shows up on the screen shot you guys have in the print version.....
Roxanne Roberts: You have very good eyesight.
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Family judge in Schuyler County: New York judicial rules require that he recuse himself in that case. You should have petitioned for a rehearing, AND a change of venue. No way could you get a fair hearing in Schuyler County.
Amy Argetsinger: I'm going all the way to the Supreme Court with this one. But wait -- uh oh, then I might get the cat back.
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Siamese Cats: They freak me out. Ever since that Disney movie.
I can't look at them, they are up there with basset hounds. Shivers just typing this.
Roxanne Roberts: They got a bad rap in that movie.
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Congrats to Falls Church: Wow, I remember when that first advice comment was posted and it felt so random. But now I want news of when and if they actually marry! It's such a sweet story. Now for my advice needs -- I'm mid/late 20s and trying to decide if I want to tell the guy I've been with for three years that it's time for us to get forever-serious. He enjoys reading gossips rags and blogs with me on occasion, if that's a factor.
Amy Argetsinger: You're too young. Wait until you're 30.
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Dinner Tonight For Wife: Keep the meal light, so she won't fall asleep right after dinner.
Amy Argetsinger: See, we're full of good advice today.
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Blog pix: NOW I can cast the Reliable Source movie! Sela Ward and Molly Ringwald!
Amy Argetsinger: And who is who?
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Ames, Iowa: Is there a surprise Holiday party in the works? Imagine a chance to meet all your readers! Maybe we could get The Post to pick up the tab at a nice restaurant recommended by Tom? I know I would fly in for that!
Amy Argetsinger: Well, then it wouldn't be a surprise.
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I don't think so. I don't pay taxes so soldiers can adopt dogs, that's not their job, not why we're there. : Who paid for the rabies shot? The food? The U.S. Government, taxes, me. Who justifies spending U.S. money on dogs when kids run the sidewalks with less food? Dogs are cute, but Irani children are starving.
Roxanne Roberts: No taxpayers dollars involved, people. And it would be a great world if the choice between saving one dog and saving starving children were that simple.
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Halcyon House: Really? I like it but it seems a bit too...square. Something funkier (good funky not bad funky) I think...
Amy Argetsinger: When it comes to real estate I am so un-funky. I like old houses.
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Their dad is worried that this will severely diminish their candy take: Well, are they trick or treating in Real America or Fake America?
Roxanne Roberts: So many questions, so little time. We are WAY over our allotted hour, and editors are demanding we write an actual column for tomorrow---so we'll have to resume next week. In the meanwhile, send your tips, ideas and wardrobe suggestions to reliablesource@washpost.com Get scary, people!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 23, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 22, 2008 Wednesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2900 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Michael D. Shear was online Wednesday, Oct. 22 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Michael D. Shear: Good morning everyone.
Less than 13 days left now. It's looking good for Obama -- the polls have turned decidedly in his direction since I last chatted. But who knows what could happen in the time left. McCain has now settled on a new accusation: Obama is a socialist. He's hammering it hard, using Joe the Plumber as his main foil. Obama takes a day off this week to be with his grandmother.
Let's get to it.
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Allison Park, Pa.: What's the cumulative effect of Palin's "Real America" comment and new family travel expense allegations? Her popularity ratings have swung a good deal in her very short time as a national ticket candidate. Thanks in advance for taking questions this morning.
Michael D. Shear: A Sarah Palin question to start us off.
Palin's star seems to have faded quickly, especially among the Republican establishment, but also with voters. Polls show her more of a drag than a help now on the ticket. Her "Real America" comment and the family travel allegations won't help.
But perhaps the biggest blunder is the news this morning that the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 on clothes for her in the days after she was picked to be the nominee. That's sure to undercut the campaign's argument that they are campaigning for the little guy.
Remember the $400 haircut?
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Helena, Mont.: How much of an impact has the economic downturn had on the Republican big donors being able to fund 527s or donate to Republican Party? It's easier for a lot of people to donate $25 or $50 a month even in bad economic times than it is for a few to donate $28,000 or so.
Michael D. Shear: Actually, it's been surprising to me that the fundraising on both sides has been as strong as it has been given the economic troubles.
Clearly, Obama has broken every record (and not, by the way, only because of little donations. He's had plenty of $10 million fundraisers with really big donors). But McCain and the RNC have broken records too. I was at a fundraiser the other day in New York with McCain (as the "pool" reporter covering it) and it pulled in $10 million in one night.
So while lots of people are losing lots of money in the stock market, it seems that there's still a lot of money out there for political campaigns
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Seattle: Of the four candidates, Sarah Palin alone has refused to release any medical records and this has received very little press attention. Given the lack of press focus, do you think future candidates may decide that there is no real reason to release their records?
Michael D. Shear: Interesting question. As one of the reporters who spent three hours reviewing Sen. McCain's medical records earlier this year, I believe all the candidates should provide as much detail as possible on their health. I do not know why her records have not been released. I suspect that there will continue to be pressure from the press on future candidates -- at least, I hope so.
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Anonymous: I don't care much about Palin's clothes purchases, but she appears to have made no effort to reach out to voters except for conservatives who already agree with her. Energizing the base is important, but so is reaching out to moderates who aren't firmly in the Democratic camp (especially as the GOP is still a minority party). It does make me wonder -- have there been other vice presidential candidates picked to energize a party's base versus reaching out to others?
Michael D. Shear: It's interesting. My sense from talking to the campaign is that they thought Palin would be helpful in reaching out to women, Clinton Democrats and "reform" minded voters.
As it turns out of course, it looks like that didn't turn out to be true at all. Polls suggest, as you point out, that Palin mainly energizes the base -- and that's certainly anecdotally true at the rallies she holds across the country.
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Palin again: About the clothing expenditures -- is the RNC allowed to spend money on that? I thought the campaigns weren't allowed to coordinate?
Michael D. Shear: I think there's a bunch of wiggle room here. There are some things that the campaign can coordinate with the RNC, within limits. Some ads, for example, can be jointly paid for and developed.
I think the laws and advisory opinions that govern this stuff are likely to be somewhat vague. The campaign's comment last night -- that they had always said they would donate the clothes to charity -- struck me as a legalistic response that might indicate there's some rule that allows them to do that as long as the candidate doesn't keep the clothes.
Stay tuned.
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Albany, N.Y.: I have read that it is illegal to use campaign contributions to buy candidates clothes, because these are considered personal items, essentially on the theory that the candidate would have to wear clothes even if they weren't a candidate. Is there anything to this?
Michael D. Shear: See above. We're looking into this.
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Sacramento, Calif.: THanks for taking my question. What is McCains most likely electoral path to victory? I was playing pundant with CNN's calculator, and it seems all Obama needs to do is win everything Kerry won and then get Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. Conversly even, if McCain wins Florida and Ohio, he still must beat Obbama in one of those three states, and I have a hard time seeing that happen with the polls how they are and the lack of "values" voters in those states who might get cold feet.
Michael D. Shear: The electoral map is looking more and more grim for McCain every day. The campaign has always said that they could win with two of the following: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Ohio is close -- a dead heat. It looks like McCain campaign folks feel like their best shot at the second is Pennsylvania, even though the polls show him far behind.
But that assumes that he holds the other Bush states -- Virginia, Florida, Indiana, etc. Those look shaky too right now
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Re: Fundraising:"Actually, it's been surprising to me that the fundraising on both sides has been as strong as it has been given the economic troubles." Well, it appears that your view is not held by an analysis of the situation. Politico has a huge article on how the stock market and John McCain's own campaign have, in fact, affected contributions.
washingtonpost.com: No cavalry coming for McCain (Politico, Oct. 22)
Michael D. Shear: I believe the Politico piece makes a different point -- that the immediate stock market downturn makes it less likely that a single, wealthy donor or donors bankrolls an independent effort on McCain's behalf. I would wonder whether there is more to it than that -- McCain has condemned such efforts and has not been popular with some of the conservatives who might be the most likely candidates.
But I stick by my broader assertion that during the past year or so, as the economy has steadily gotten worse, the amount of money going into both of these campaigns is staggering.
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Claverack, N.Y.: I'm a deep-blue Democrat who nearly hit the ceiling when I heard what Joe Biden had said in private to contributors about how Sen. Obama was going to be "tested." Was he out of his mind?! I expected I'd see Sen. Biden on every nightly news show trying to get himself out of that, but nothing. Does the Obama camp just not see this as a big deal, or are they terrified of Joe saying something even worse?
Michael D. Shear: Welcome to Joe Biden Land, where gaffes are something that are expected. To be fair, though, it's unclear that Biden was really saying anything more than the common assumption that a new president -- any new president -- is likely to be tested as the world adjusts to a post-Bush world. Still, Biden has clearly given an opening to McCain to shift the conversation back to foreign affairs, where he still has an advantage.
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Re: Early Voting: With all of this early voting going on, how will that impact exit polls, which I think are what the networks use to call states on Election Night, no?
Michael D. Shear: From Jon Cohen, our pollster:
Exit pollsters complement Election Day interviews with phone surveys in a number of states where early voting is common (there is also a national version). High early voting, though, certainly adds to the challenges, particularly in the states where there is little precedent for what may happen this year.
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Arlington, Va.: If Palin really wanted to reach out to the undecideds, she should have purchased clothes at Macy's, Foley's, or Dillard's. But I know how it works -- the Republican National Committee hired a personal shopper and gave them the sizes, colors and other preferences of the client. I'm showing my age, but I remember all of the bad publicity from Nancy Reagan's demands for free clothes from designers. Sorry RNC, you're not absolved for saying "but we're donating the clothes to charity afterward."
Michael D. Shear: What about Target? That's where I buy my shirts. (A reporter's salary, you know!)
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Georgia: How do you honestly think the Georgia race will go? The polls give McCain a seven percentage point lead, yet the Chambliss-Martin race is tied (within the margin of error). Registrations are up, and early voters are primarily African American. Can my state go blue? Is Chambliss scared? I certainly hope so!
Michael D. Shear: I'm no expert, but I would say McCain wins Georgia. (I know. I'm going out on a limb there.) For the real story on the Chambliss-Martin race, head over to The Fix, and my colleague, Chris Cilizza.
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Bloomington, Ind.: Hello Michael. Next Wednesday, Oct. 29, Obama will deliver what could be the most watched campaign commercial in history. Has there been any talk about the format or setting? It certainly will be interesting to see if this time is spent talking directly to the voters one-on-one, or if Obama uses it to present his vision for the country's future in an inspirational tone.
Michael D. Shear: I have not heard any details about this. But it will certainly be interesting to see how he uses it. I know that for myself, watching another 30-second ad sometimes gets tiring. So I assume he's trying to figure out how to get people to pay attention for 30 minutes
_______________________
Jefferson City, Mo.: Okay, there's polling data to indicate Palin's a drag on the ticket outside of the true believers, but everybody seems to forget that McCain mostly had lost the hard-right evangelical wing of the party from the get-go. Like it or not, without them, he didn't stand a chance. Palin at least brought them on board. Of course, his campaign didn't think about the repercussions of that, but you go to war with the candidate you have, not the candidate you wished you had. Or something like that.
Michael D. Shear: Agreed. Totally. Palin helped McCain with the base. And it's an interesting question to wonder whether the base would have become energized in the end anyway. But it seems clear that Palin was not the draw that they thought she might be with independents and "reformers"
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Washington: In a blog post yesterday you said that the McCain campaign has been sending you ads on Betamax tape, implying that the campaign was out-of-touch and using outdated technology. In the comments section, many people suggested that you must have been mistaken, and that the format must have been BetaSP, which is different than Betamax and is still a common format in broadcast television news. Have you checked that? I work in television news and I think that they probably are correct. If so, you should issue a correction to your blog post.
washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Republicans' Betamax Media Strategy (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 20)
Michael D. Shear: Actually, the comments were correct. It's not Betamax. It's BetacamSP.
But it still doesn't fit in my VHS machine.
_______________________
Washington: If the McCain folks are worried about the polls, will they throw the Rev. Wright issue out in front as a last resort? Wouldn't showing the Rev. Wright seemingly shouting rhetoric play into the Republican hands that Obama has "anti-American" views and can't be trusted? What other October Suprises do you see from either camp?
Michael D. Shear: It seems unlikely to me that the McCain campaign will use the Wright issue in these last days, despite the comments by its campaign manager that they will "rethink" everything.
My guess is that a decision to use Wright now would be seen as a desperate move, and part of the narrative that seems to have been established that McCain is the more negative campaigner right now.
There's always the possibility that another group, not connected to the campaign, could run with that. But so far, there's no indication that's about to happen. We'll see.
_______________________
Early Voting in Virginia: Can you or someone out there shed some light on early voting in Virginia? I understand that it's an option, but where does one find info about it? I went to the Board of Elections Website and they only refer to absentee voting -- which I do not qualify for. I'd love to go and vote early, but I can't seem to find out where and how to do it. Help!
Michael D. Shear: I believe -- and will stand corrected if someone out there knows differently -- that absentee voting is the only form of early voting that exists in Virginia. And the absentee voting in Virginia is restricted, unlike some states, which allow everyone to take that option.
Here, from the State Board of Elections, is who is eligible to vote absentee:
1. Any person who, in the regular and orderly course of his business, profession, or occupation or while on personal business or vacation, will be absent from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
2. Any person who is a member of a uniformed service of the United States, on active duty, or a member of the merchant marine of the United States, or who temporarily resides outside of the United States, or the spouse or dependent residing with any person listed in, and who will be absent on the day of the election from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
3. Any student attending a school or institution of learning, or his spouse, who will be absent on the day of election from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
4. Any person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of election because of a physical disability or physical illness;
5. Any person who is confined while awaiting trial or for having been convicted of a misdemeanor, provided that the trial or release date is scheduled on or after the third day preceding the election. Any person who is awaiting trial and is a resident of the county or city where he is confined shall, on his request, be taken to the polls to vote on election day if his trial date is postponed and he did not have an opportunity to vote absentee;
6. Any person who is a member of an electoral board, registrar, officer of election, or custodian of voting equipment;
7. Any duly registered person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of the election because he is primarily and personally responsible for the care of an ill or disabled family member who is confined at home;
8. Any duly registered person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of the election because of an obligation occasioned by his religion.
9. Any person who, in the regular and orderly course of his business, profession, or occupation, will be at his place of work and commuting to and from his home to his place of work for eleven or more hours of the thirteen that the polls are open.
_______________________
The Al-Qaeda Endorsement: Any word from the McCain camp on getting this one?
washingtonpost.com: On Al-Qaeda Web Sites, Joy Over U.S. Crisis, Support for McCain (Post, Oct. 22)
Michael D. Shear: As we speak, I am listening to a McCain conference call in which they blast this story. They say it does not reflect anything more than a single blogger, and they read out statements of praise for Obama from officials in Hamas, Iran and Libya. Stay tuned for more reaction.
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Michael D. Shear: Ok. It's about that time. Thanks for all the good questions.
My next day is two weeks from today -- the day after the election. I guess we'll have plenty to talk about.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 22, 2008 Wednesday 9:53 AM EST
The Pulse of the Pol
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2198 words
HIGHLIGHT: I spent a few minutes with Barack Obama on my last campaign outing, and one thing struck me during our brief chat.
I spent a few minutes with Barack Obama on my last campaign outing, and one thing struck me during our brief chat.
He was genial and relaxed, but more than that, he wasn't on, the way so many politicians are when courting voters or journalists. He wasn't trying to impress me. He was just being himself.
A small thing, to be sure, but rather unusual in his profession. The first time I had a lengthy conversation with Bill Clinton, he was fascinating and charming but also performing, conveying the impression he had nothing better to do in the world than talk to you. The first time I tagged along with George W. Bush, he was joking and talking baseball with me and other reporters on his campaign plane, most of whom had already received nicknames.
But Obama marches to his own drummer. He's a low-metabolism guy, even during periods when he's under assault and the pundits are urging him to get mad. That, aides tell me, is the way he is, never too high or too low.
We've always known this, on some level, in that we've seen his reserved manner, the way he listens sympathetically to people on the trail but doesn't usually hug them or outwardly feel their pain. In the past few weeks, though, as his cautious response to the financial crisis has been contrasted with John McCain's zigzag approach, the Democratic side has been touting this as a major selling point. No Drama Obama and all that.
And it matters: A new poll gives him a 20-point edge over McCain for having the "right temperament."
But is that quality also responsible for his difficulty in "connecting" with working-class voters, as opposed to more educated types who admire his speechmaking and writing abilities?
This trait comes up in three recent pieces and is worth pondering as Obama prepares to leave the trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Matt Bai, in the NYT Magazine:
"Obama's greatest asset as a candidate, the trait that has enabled him to overcome both a thin résumé and the resistance of his own party's establishment, is his placidity. Even more than through his ability to give a rousing speech (plenty of other candidates, from Ted Kennedy to Howard Dean, could do that), Obama has differentiated himself from recent Democrats by conveying a sense of inner security that is highly unusual in a business of people who have chosen to spend every day asking people to love them. He does not seem like a candidate who's going to switch to earth tones in his middle age or who's going to start dressing up in camouflage to rediscover his inner Rambo. Obama is content to meet the world on his terms, and something about that inspires confidence.
"And yet that same lack of pathetic neediness may in fact be a detriment when it comes to persuading voters who, culturally or ideologically, just aren't predisposed to like him. I once heard a friend of Obama's compare him with Bill Clinton this way: if Clinton sees you walking down the other side of the street, he immediately crosses over to shake your hand; if Obama sees you coming, he nods and waits for you to cross."
Paul Waldman, in American Prospect:
"While McCain's campaign is showing who he is and what he'll stoop to, voters are discovering that whatever else you think about Barack Obama, the man is calm. Like a human Xanax, he soothes all those around him. Unlike McCain, who reacted to the economic crisis with as many different policies as there were days in the week, Obama related the events to his fundamental message of change, and assured Americans in Rooseveltian terms that the country would endure. As they watched the debates, many voters were no doubt surprised to see not the crazy radical they had been led to believe Obama was, but a perfectly sane fellow who sounded more reasonable -- and much more in control -- than his opponent."
David Brooks sees the same qualities:
"He has shown the same untroubled self-confidence day after day. There has never been a moment when, at least in public, he seems gripped by inner turmoil. It's not willpower or self-discipline he shows as much as an organized unconscious. Through some deep, bottom-up process, he has developed strategies for equanimity, and now he's become a homeostasis machine . . .
"At Obama rallies, the candidate is the wooed not the wooer. He doesn't seem to need the audience's love. But they need his. The audiences hunger for his affection, while he is calm, appreciative and didactic."
Human Xanax. Homeostasis machine. Not usually the qualities associated with ambitious candidates. And could it lead to what journalists secretly fear most: a boring presidency?
Now for the new numbers: Obama leads McCain 52 to 42, "with a growing number of voters saying they are comfortable with his values, background and ability to serve as commander in chief, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll . . .
"Fifty-five percent of voters say Gov. Palin isn't qualified to be president if the need arises, up from 50% two weeks ago. And when given a list of possible concerns about Sen. McCain, voters were by far most likely to say they worry about Gov. Palin's qualification to be president."
By the way, I'm all for candidates looking good, but doggone it, do they do this in the "real America"?
"The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August."
This includes a K$75 $75K shopping spree at Neiman Marcus. What would Joe Sixpack say about that?
At times Palin seems to be putting us back in the Clinton administration. First there was Troopergate, and now Travelgate:
"Gov. Sarah Palin charged the state for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited, and later amended expense reports to specify that they were on official business," the AP reports.
"The charges included costs for hotel and commercial flights for three daughters to join Palin to watch their father in a snowmobile race, and a trip to New York, where the governor attended a five-hour conference and stayed with 17-year-old Bristol for five days and four nights in a luxury hotel."
Total expenses charged for the three daughters: $21,012.
In the absence of the slightest bit of media outrage, McCain and his allies are pressing the issue of whether it's fair for one candidate to amass $150 million in a month while the other one is limited to $42 million. National Review Editor Rich Lowry wonders what would happen if the situation was reversed:
"Imagine if a Republican presidential candidate had pledged to take public financing, but instead dealt the post-Watergate campaign-financing system a blow from which it will never recover. If he raised $600 million and out-advertised his opponent nationwide by 4-1. This candidate's campaign would be pronounced 'an obscene effort to buy the election.' Powell, no doubt, would be 'troubled.' But Barack Obama does it and everyone stands back in admiration."
Speaking of Lowry, he accuses a CNN correspondent of distortion for telling Palin that someone at his magazine had written: "I can't tell whether Sarah Palin is incompetent, stupid, unqualified, corrupt or all of the above." Lowry is right -- the NR piece was about the way the media covers her: "Watching press coverage of the Republican candidate for vice president, it's sometimes hard to decide whether Sarah Palin is incompetent, stupid, unqualified, corrupt, backward, or -- or, well, all of the above."
First I reported that Maureen Dowd had become persona non grata on the McCain plane, and now Politico reports that the club is growing:
"Time columnist Joe Klein, who's been a forceful critic of the McCain campaign (and already said he's unwilling to accept a post-election apology), has found himself without a seat on the McCain or Palin planes the past four months. In June, Klein was kept from boarding the McCain plane over what they said had been a security issue. More recently, when trying to fly on the Palin plane last week, Klein told Politico over e-mail that the campaign's response was he 'couldn't be accommodated at this time.'
" 'I've done nine presidential campaigns and this is the first time this has ever happened to me,' Klein said. 'I was even allowed -- I won't say welcomed -- on the Clinton plane in the summer of 1996 after I was revealed as the author of Primary Colors.' . . .
"Campaign spokesperson Michael Goldfarb responded that 'we don't allow Daily Kos diarists on board either.' "
Kind of a low blow, if you ask me.
Here's the Joe Klein response to bloggers' suggestions that Time should pull all its correspondents in solidarity:
"My job is different from Jay Carney's, Michael Scherer's and Mark Halperin's. They are paid to report and, to a certain extent, analyze. They operate under real, and valuable, journalistic restrictions. Their jobs are especially tough when covering a campaign as despicable as McCain's has been: an important part of their brief is to try to see the race through the eyes of the McCain campaign and explain to the rest of us what that looks like . . . I'm paid to have opinions."
Tina Brown is sympathetic to John McCain's running mate:
"I suspect that Palin is harboring an angry contempt for her running mate and his handlers. The way they chose her in the first place reeked of dismissiveness. When Hillary got whacked, they made it clear that any skirt on the ticket would do, as long as she was sure to rouse the base. Then they treated her as a retard and wouldn't let her talk to a reporter. The Couric debacle was just about those idiots giving her the wrong lines . . .
"The new received wisdom is that when the Republicans lose, Palin, with a supporting Reality Show cast of Todd, Bristol, Track and Trig, will cash in politics to become a high-rolling TV star. Why does it have to be either or?"
Christopher Hitchens, on the other hand, is . . . not:
"The problem with Gov. Palin is not that she lacks experience. It's that she quite plainly lacks intellectual curiosity. It is not snobbish to harbor grave doubts about somebody who seems uninterested in reading for pleasure or recreation and whose only interest in her local public library is sniffing round its shelves for books that ought to be removed for expressing impure ideas.
"Nor is it snobbish, let alone sexist, to express doubts about someone who, as late as March 2007, could tell Alaska Business Monthly, 'I've been so focused on state government, I haven't really focused much on the war in Iraq. I heard on the news about the new deployments, and while I support our president, Condoleezza Rice and the administration, I want to know that we have an exit plan in place.' This statement deserves to be called mindless, because, first, it is made up of stale and received and overheard bits and bobs from everyday media babble and, second, because you cannot really coherently say that you support both the administration and an 'exit plan.' "
At Right Wing Nuthouse, Rick Moran tells his fellow nuts to get a grip:
"The point is very simple -- too simple for some who seek to complicate matters by ascribing the absolute worst possible motives to Obama and fear his coming administration as medieval peasants feared the appearance of a comet. Ignorance of history and a lack of common sense has caused many on the right to go stark raving, around the bend, screw loose, bat out of hell nutzo.
"Obama will not turn America into a Marxist state. There will be no gulags or prison camps where conservatives and Obama regime opponents will be rounded up and sent for re-education (even though there is a sizable subset of Obama supporters who would no doubt crave such treatment of righties).
"Obama will not cancel future elections, initiate Soviet style restrictions on free speech (more on the Fairness Doctrine later which, btw, is hardly 'a Soviet style restriction'), make us stand in line for toilet paper, or place his smiling visage on 10 story high office buildings in order to perpetrate a cult of personality (I think).
"Obama will not 'take away' your guns, close churches, shutter conservative newspapers, shut down Fox News, darken conservative blogs, or take any other actions that would smack of dictatorship or authoritarianism.
"Holy Christ! We just went through 8 fricking years of listening to the left babble on about all of this crap and now we have to read this kind of garbage from conservatives? Will you listen to yourselves? We have stood shoulder to shoulder these past 8 years laughing at, belittling, screaming about, and pointing a finger of shame at the left for saying many of the exact same things about Bush that you are already saying about Obama."
Obama has been on a roll with newspaper endorsements, winning a bunch in papers that backed Bush last time. But former Philadelphia Inquirer staffer Tom Ferrick points out:
"The Inquirer endorsed Barack Obama on Sunday. Sort of.
"There was a dissenting opinion that ran below the main editorial that stated the case for John McCain. Insiders at the paper tell me that was added at the insistence of Brian Tierney, a life-long Republican who also happens to be the newspaper's publisher."
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The New York Times
October 21, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
U.S. Is Said To Be Urging New Mergers In Banking
BYLINE: By MARK LANDLER
SECTION: Section B; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1092 words
WASHINGTON -- In a step that could accelerate a shakeout of the nation's banks, the Treasury Department hopes to spur a new round of mergers by steering some of the money in its $250 billion rescue package to banks that are willing to buy weaker rivals, according to government officials.
As the Treasury embarks on its unprecedented recapitalization, it is becoming clear that the government wants not only to stabilize the industry, but also to reshape it. Two senior officials said the selection criteria would include banks that need more capital to finance acquisitions.
''Treasury doesn't want to prop up weak banks,'' said an official who spoke on condition of anonymity, because of the sensitivity of the matter. ''One purpose of this plan is to drive consolidation.''
With bankers traumatized by the credit crisis and the loss of investor confidence, officials said, there are plenty of banks open to selling themselves. The hurdle is a lack of well-capitalized buyers.
Stable national players like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo are already digesting acquisitions. A second group of so-called super-regional banks are well positioned to take over their competitors, officials said, but have been reluctant to undertake or unable to complete deals.
By offering capital at a favorable rate, the government may encourage them to expand. In this category, industry analysts point to regional leaders, like KeyCorp of Cleveland; Fifth Third Bancorp of Cincinnati; BB&T of Winston-Salem, N.C.; and SunTrust Banks of Atlanta.
With $125 billion left over after investing in the nine largest banks, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., said there was enough capital to invest in every qualified bank.
''We have received indications of interest from a broad group of banks of all sizes,'' he said at a news conference. ''This program is not being implemented on a first-come, first-served basis.''
Mr. Paulson did not address the issue of bank mergers in his remarks, but officials say it has been widely discussed within the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which has been burdened in recent months by having to support teetering banks like Wachovia.
Providing capital to help facilitate a merger, officials say, is also a way to track how the capital is used. Some analysts have questioned how much control the government can exert over its investment, when it is injected into banks in return for nonvoting preferred shares.
''We think there will be pressure behind the scenes by Treasury to push together companies that should have merged months or years ago,'' said Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Portland, Me. ''If you can create stronger companies, that is a positive.''
In selecting banks, Mr. Paulson said the Treasury would also rely on advice from the quartet of regulators who oversee the banking industry: the Fed, the F.D.I.C., the comptroller of the currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision.
But Mr. Paulson made clear that the final decision of who gets federal money rests with the Treasury. And he reiterated that the government expected the banks that got money to lend it out rather than hoard it -- putting in a special plea for homeowners with troubled mortgages.
''We expect all participating banks to continue to strengthen their efforts to help struggling homeowners,'' he said. ''Foreclosures not only hurt the families who lose their homes, they hurt neighborhoods, communities and our economy as a whole.''
The Treasury's bank rescue comes amid a rising clamor in Washington that the government should focus on helping mortgage holders directly. But officials say it is unlikely that the Bush administration will present a new plan for homeowners between now and the election.
''There's no inexpensive, easy way to address the terms of people's mortgages,'' said Robert J. Shapiro, an economic consultant who is chairman of the globalization initiative of NDN, a left-leaning research group in Washington. ''I think that's why they haven't addressed it.''
Most likely, he said, the campaigns of Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama will hone their own proposals. Then, if Congress reconvenes after the election in a lame-duck session, the new president-elect will try to push through a bill with new measures.
Under the terms of the $700 billion rescue plan approved by Congress early this month, the Treasury has authority to purchase whole mortgages. Treasury officials also note that Mr. Paulson has pressed banks and loan servicers to show flexibility in modifying loans to avoid foreclosures.
Still, Treasury's recent efforts have been almost wholly focused on stabilizing the banks -- first by proposing to buy distressed assets from the banks, and later by injecting capital directly into them. There were some signs in the credit markets Monday that those efforts were paying off.
On Monday, Mr. Paulson described a process for banks to apply for government investments that is little more complicated than the one-page term sheet he handed to the chief executives of the nation's nine largest banks at a meeting last week at the Treasury Department.
The institutions, he said, must fill out a standardized two-page form and submit it to their primary regulator by Nov. 14. The Treasury will receive the applications, with a recommendation, from the regulator. Once it decides whether to inject capital, it will announce its investment within 48 hours. It will not disclose banks that withdraw or are turned down.
The Treasury's program is open to large and small banks, as well as thrifts. Officials said they had received inquiries from other financial institutions, including insurance companies, but the plan did not provide for them.
Given the potential weakness of insurers, some analysts said the government should consider expanding the eligibility for capital injections. These analysts said $250 billion would not be enough.
''They should see themselves as having $700 billion to recapitalize the industry in creative ways,'' said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
While the Treasury's offer of capital is attractive, analysts cautioned that cash alone might not be enough to reshape the industry. Recent deals, they note, have featured distressed banks sold at fire-sale prices.
''There are a lot of obstacles to mergers in the banking industry,'' Mr. Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets said. ''I don't know how the government could persuade banks to do deals at below book value.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Monday that there was enough stabilization money left over to assist every qualified bank.(PHOTOGRAPH BY GERALD HERBERT/ASSOCIATED PRESS) (pg. B8)
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The New York Times
October 21, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Copyright and Politics Don't Mix
BYLINE: By LAWRENCE LESSIG.
Lawrence Lessig, a law professor at Stanford, is the author of ''Remix: Making Art and Commerce Thrive in the Hybrid Economy.''
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Pg. 29
LENGTH: 821 words
THROUGHOUT this election season, Americans have used the extraordinary capacity of digital technologies to capture and respond to arguments with which they disagree. YouTube has become the channel of choice for following who is saying what, from the presidential campaign to races for city council.
But this explosion in citizen-generated political speech has been met with a troubling response: the increasing use of copyright laws as tools for censorship.
A recent dispute in a race for New York State Assembly is a perfect example. A Democrat, Mark Blanchfield, is challenging the Republican incumbent, George Amedore, in the Assembly district that includes the upstate New York city of Schenectady. Last month, Mr. Blanchfield released television and radio advertisements that included a clip from a video interview with The Albany Business Review in which Assemblyman Amedore said, ''I don't look at the Assembly position as a job.''
Mr. Amedore complained that the ads took his remark out of context, and the newspaper's lawyers sent Mr. Blanchfield letters calling the ads ''an infringement of our client's exclusive copyright rights'' (redundancy in the original), and threatening Mr. Blanchfield if he didn't cease using the material. Never mind that Mr. Blanchfield's use couldn't possibly have harmed the financial interest of The Albany Business Review. Whatever the newspaper's motive, the result is the censorship of Mr. Blanchfield's campaign.
This problem isn't limited to New York Assembly races. It has directly affected the presidential campaigns. Last year, Fox News ordered John McCain to stop using a clip of himself at a Fox News-moderated debate. Last month, Warner Music Group demanded YouTube remove an amateur video attacking Barack Obama that included its music, while NBC asked the Obama campaign to pull an ad that included some NBC News video with Tom Brokaw and Keith Olbermann. No doubt, these corporations are simply trying to avoid controversy or embarrassment, but by claiming infringement, they are effectively censoring political speech.
Senator McCain has taken a lead in responding to this copyright extremism. In a letter addressed to YouTube last week, the McCain campaign rightly criticized the Web site's decision to remove work that is ''clearly privileged under the fair use doctrine'' of copyright law and called upon YouTube to be more protective of political speech by conducting a more extensive review of material before it gets taken down.
Copyright law has become a political weapon because of a statute passed a decade ago: the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. That law tells carriers like YouTube that unless they quickly remove material posted by users that is alleged to infringe copyright, they themselves could be liable for the infringement. Understandably, YouTube and others have become quite vigilant in removing allegedly infringing content. Indeed, the Web site has gone beyond the requirements of the law and has begun to shut down the accounts of people alleged to have violated copyright just three times.
The digital copyright act gives the alleged infringer an opportunity to demand that the content be restored. But in the height of a political campaign, even a few hours of downtime can be the difference between effective and ineffective. The law thus creates a perfect mechanism to censor political speech during the only time it could matter. Recognizing this, campaigns and their allies are beginning to exploit this weapon.
The answer to this problem is not to abolish or ignore copyright. Instead, the law should be revised, bringing focus to the contexts in which its important economic incentives are needed, and removing it from contexts where it isn't.
After all, a 95-year copyright on ''Wall-E'' may encourage Pixar to make innovative movies, but we can be confident our presidential candidates don't require any first-to-the-market advantages before they agree to debate, nor is there a need to protect their answers as though they were record albums or new technologies. This is why both Senators McCain and Obama joined in a campaign to persuade the networks to make the raw feed from their debates available free of any copyright restrictions.
What content owners need to recognize is that in the long run, it's unwise to ask for a definition of ''fair use'' in the middle of a presidential campaign. Judges are very unlikely to find copyright infringement in a political ad, and a law of ''fair use'' expanded to allow such uses could well weaken the legitimate claims of musicians and Hollywood studios.
It would be far better if copyright law were narrowed to those contexts in which it serves its essential creative function -- encouraging innovation and ensuring that artists get paid for their work -- and left alone the battles of what criticisms candidates for office, and their supporters, are allowed to make.
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The New York Times
October 21, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Joe the Marketer Responds to a Category 5 Hurricane
BYLINE: By STUART ELLIOTT
SECTION: Section B; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; ADVERTISING; Pg. 4
LENGTH: 899 words
ORLANDO, Fla.
HERE is a look back at some of the highlights, lowlights and sidelights at the 98th annual conference of the Association of National Advertisers, which 1,200 people attended here last Thursday through Sunday.
HURRICANE, TORNADO, TSUNAMI Concerns about the financial crisis permeated the conference, from the speeches to the conversations at dinner to the talk at the hotel bar.
''I'm very glad that it's Saturday,'' said Claire Bennett, senior vice president for marketing at American Express, as she began her presentation at a general session. ''There's not going to be much news about the stock market.''
When Jez Frampton, chief executive at Interbrand, an Omnicom Group agency, described how his new Best Global Brands study estimated the total value of leading brands at $1.2 trillion, he added, ''That's just about enough to bail out the American banking system.''
As Jonah Bloom, editor of the trade publication Advertising Age, started his remarks at a dinner, he looked out at the full ballroom and said, ''I take it you all registered before the economy went south.''
One reason attendance was so high despite the uncertain business climate was that the conference hotel required two nights' deposit and a 30-day notification of cancellation for a full refund. That fine print, said several people who had considered not coming, led them to keep their plans to attend.
The scope of the economic crisis seemed immense enough that attendees needed several ways to describe it. Joseph V. Tripodi, chief marketing and commercial officer at the Coca-Cola Company, likened the situation to ''a Cat 5,'' as in a Category 5 hurricane.
Nick Utton, chief marketing officer at E*Trade Financial, upped the ante weatherwise, calling it ''a hurricane, a tsunami and a tornado, all combined.''
NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER The coming presidential election was discussed almost as much as the economy. For instance, Mr. Tripodi began his remarks by declaring: ''I'm not Joe the plumber. I'm Joe the marketer.''
On Saturday, Joe Trippi, a Democratic consultant debated Tony Blankley, former press secretary for Newt Gingrich, the Republican and former House speaker. Afterward, attendees used instant polling devices to tell how they planned to vote next month.
Seventy percent said they would vote for Senator Barack Obama and 26 percent said they would vote for Senator John McCain. (''Other'' and not voting accounted for the rest.) By comparison, at a dinner at the 94th annual conference in October 2004, 49 percent of those voting said they would support President Bush and 46 percent said they would support the Democratic nominee, Senator John Kerry.
Those who voted for Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama were then asked who they believed would win the election, regardless of whom they supported. The margin for Mr. Obama was even larger, 86 percent to 14 percent.
Those outcomes may not have been completely surprising. One attendee was seen carrying a purse with an Obama button. Another attendee wore an Obama football jersey at the hotel pool.
The campaign effort for Mr. Obama also won a vote requested by Mr. Bloom of Advertising Age to decide which of six finalists would be named his publication's marketer of the year. Mr. Obama drew 36.1 percent of that vote. Apple, the 2007 winner, ranked No. 2 with 27.3 percent, and the online retailer Zappos came in third with 14.1 percent.
The McCain campaign finished last at 4.5 percent, behind No. 4 Nike (9.4 percent) and No. 5 Coors beer (8.7 percent).
BROUGHT TO YOU BY For the first time in several years, the number of companies sponsoring the conference -- paying fees that help the association defray the cost of the meeting -- fell compared with the previous year. There were 44, down from 51 in 2007 (and 2006).
Still, their pitches were hard to avoid. The hotel room keys were embossed with ads for DirecTV. Attendees had to walk past a corridor lined with tables of sponsors' wares to enter and leave the general sessions. The large attendance meant hallway gridlock the first couple of days of the conference, much to the delight of sponsors like Google, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia and the Magazine Publishers of America.
In another sign of the economic climate, attendees swarmed the shelves that were stocked by the magazine association with free copies of almost 100 publications. Mr. Obama had a strong showing there, too, turning up on the covers of magazines like Creativity, Ladies' Home Journal, Men's Health and Time.
The most popular table may have been the one staffed by a graphologist who analyzed the signatures and handwriting of attendees, courtesy of a company called SAS Customer Intelligence. One attendee was pleased to learn that he was ''wise beyond his years,'' although at age 39 it seemed less of a compliment than if his age had started with a 2.
JARGON WATCH Each year the conference exposes students of language to the buzzwords and buzzphrases (if that is a word) in vogue among marketers. Among those heard during the speeches this time: ''forward predict'' (as if there could be ''backward predict''), ''stakeholder engagement,'' ''maximizing the shelf sets,'' ''single-point accountability,'' ''enablement experience,'' ''tailored solutions'' and ''relevant touch points'' (as if there could be irrelevant ones).
Also, several buzzwords were used as nouns and verbs, among them ''benchmark,'' ''bonus'' and ''silo.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: April 8, 2011
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Speaking in Orlando, Joseph V. Tripodi, left, chief marketing and commercial officer at Coca-Cola, and Jonah Bloom, editor of Advertising Age.(PHOTOGRAPHS BY DOUG GOODMAN)
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
159 of 972 DOCUMENTS
USA TODAY
October 21, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
McCain camp vows to beat funding mismatch
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 6A
LENGTH: 500 words
BELTON, Mo. -- Republican John McCain has a $47 million budget for October, but his campaign insists he will have enough to overtake Democrat Barack Obama and his deeper pockets.
A day after Obama announced a record $150 million raised last month, McCain's campaign disclosed Monday it spent $37 million in September out of the $84.1 million in taxpayer funds it has accepted for the general election. Obama opted out of public financing and can raise and spend unlimited amounts.
McCain campaign manager Rick Davis vowed that the GOP presidential nominee has the resources -- combined with aid from the Republican National Committee (RNC) -- to wage an effective ad campaign and get-out-the-vote effort in the states won by President Bush in 2004 and 2000. McCain also plans to compete in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, both won in 2004 by Democrat John Kerry.
"We've got to win one of the three or four big states in play or a combination of any two of the littler ones," Davis said. Campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds said Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada -- where Obama is running aggressively -- "will not be taken for granted" by McCain.
The national party raised a record $66 million in September and is on pace for another record-breaking month, RNC spokesman Alex Conant said.
For his part, McCain told a crowd in this Kansas City suburb that Missouri is a "must win" for him. McCain's travels on Monday took him to two counties won by Bush: Cass, where Belton is located, and St. Charles.
McCain tried to appeal to voters' pocketbook concerns by saying Obama's goal is to redistribute income. In St. Charles, northwest of St. Louis, he said Obama would offer tax credits to people who don't pay taxes, which McCain decried as "just another government giveaway."
McCain also seized on Obama's lack of experience. He said that a new president "won't have time to get used to the office" and that the first-term Illinois senator has offered the "wrong response" on such foreign policy challenges as Iraq and Iran.
Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said McCain is "flailing" with a new charge every day. Seeking to link McCain to President Bush, Sevugan said the Republican nominee "hasn't found a compelling message to persuade voters that he is offering something other than four more years of the same failed policies."
Statewide polls show that Obama and McCain are essentially tied in Missouri, which has backed the winner in every presidential election since 1900 except one. In 1956, state voters backed Adlai Stevenson, who lost nationally to President Eisenhower. "We are the bellwether of bellwethers," said Tina Hervey, communications director for the Missouri Republican Party.
No one ideology or business interest dominates the state, and the electorate tends to be practical, said Wayne Fields, a professor of American culture studies at Washington University in St. Louis. "The socialist argument works better in good times," Fields said. "As things get bad, people are looking for solutions."
LOAD-DATE: October 21, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: PHOTO, B/W, Stephan Savoia, AP
DOCUMENT-TYPE: POLITICS
PUBLICATION-TYPE: NEWSPAPER
Copyright 2008 Gannett Company, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
160 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
October 21, 2008 Tuesday
Met 2 Edition
McCain Emphasizes Distance From Bush;
Criticism of Administration Stepped Up
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz and Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1162 words
DATELINE: BELTON, Mo., Oct. 20
Battling George W. Bush for the GOP presidential nomination in 2000, John McCain lashed out at the Texas governor, denouncing his proposed tax cuts as a giveaway to the rich.
Eight years later, this time running as the Republican presidential nominee, the senator from Arizona is again criticizing Bush and his financial policies, as he renews his efforts to demonstrate that he would represent a departure from the current administration.
At virtually every campaign stop, McCain is reprising a line he used last Wednesday in his final debate with Sen. Barack Obama: "I am not George Bush." And in a television ad introduced last week, McCain looks into the camera and says, "The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they?"
As he struggles to pull his campaign out from beneath the shadow of a president whose approval ratings have reached historic lows, McCain is offering some of his toughest criticism of the Bush White House. In recent weeks, he has focused his message on the administration's handling of the nation's financial crisis, suggesting that the Treasury Department has been more interested in "bailing out the banks" than helping struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure.
"I am so disturbed that this administration has not done what we have to do, and that is to go out and buy up these bad mortgages," McCain told Jewish leaders in a conference call Sunday morning.
The new rhetoric has drawn roars of applause at some campaign stops and represents a tacit acknowledgment that McCain has not distanced himself sufficiently from the administration in his bid. One senior adviser said the campaign had to do something to counteract the Obama operation's decision to spend "tens of millions of dollars pushing" the idea that McCain is a virtual clone of Bush. "The majority of the swing voters don't believe it, but some do, and we have to convince them that we are different from Bush," said this adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss campaign strategy.
Bush is hardly the only problem for McCain as he struggles to close a gap with Obama. Voters perceive Obama as better prepared to handle the economic crisis, the GOP brand has been severely tarnished in recent years, and McCain is at a huge financial disadvantage.
But with the Republican president's approval ratings languishing, the perceived connection with him is a significant drag on the party's nominee. Nearly half of all voters in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll said McCain would mainly carry on Bush's policies, and among those who would consider a McCain presidency as a continuation of the current administration, 90 percent support Obama. And the prized independent voters who link McCain and Bush also overwhelmingly tilt toward the Democrat.
McCain has made progress in distancing himself from the president. Among independents, 54 percent now see the senator as offering a new direction, up from 44 percent before the third presidential debate, where he introduced his new language on Bush.
Among all likely voters, the percentage associating McCain with Bush is less than 50 percent for the first time, albeit barely, at 49 percent. Forty-eight percent said McCain would mainly continue to lead in Bush's footsteps.
A senior Republican close to the campaign said internal GOP polling underscores those findings.
"It's night and day," the source said. "You have somebody whose public approval is in the 20s. There's just not a 'there' there anymore in terms of residual support."
After the two waged a fierce campaign for the Republican nomination in 2000, McCain remained a burr in Bush's side in the early part of his administration, although he strongly supported the Iraq war and came to endorse Bush's tax cuts despite initial misgivings. During his 2008 campaign, McCain has irritated the White House with his coolness, criticizing as a "failure" its response to Hurricane Katrina and almost never appearing in public with Bush.
Yet these efforts have done little to convince a skeptical electorate. Even McCain's acknowledgment of Bush's wartime leadership at the Republican National Convention, without mentioning him by name, made listeners unhappy, according to internal GOP focus groups.
Many Democrats doubt that McCain will be able to make enough progress to change the trajectory of the race in the final two weeks, no matter what new rhetoric he may offer. They argue that he dug his own grave when he embraced Republican orthodoxy on the utility of tax cuts to help stimulate economic growth, shifting his own position and embracing the approach Bush pushed aggressively.
"McCain, like Bush, is emerging as someone who makes rapid, gut-level decisions," said Bill Galston, a centrist Democratic strategist who worked in the Clinton White House and is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He said McCain "has made remarkably little headway with the 'I'm not Bush' argument."
Mark McKinnon, Bush's former media adviser and a former consultant for McCain, played down the idea that the president is as much of a burden as his party label is this year. "I think voters figured out long ago that John McCain is not George Bush," he wrote in an e-mail exchange. "But it doesn't matter much either way. John McCain is a Republican, and in the current environment, that's about a 10-point anchor dragging on your chances."
McCain spent Monday in Missouri, a critical swing state, where he continued his efforts to sow unease about Obama's economic policies as a plan to redistribute wealth rather than grow the economy. "I think a lot of blame is put on George Bush that does not deserve to be there," said Carol Pappas, 52, a stay-at-home mom. "On the other hand, a lot of Americans are blaming George Bush for the economy, which I disagree with. In order to have a chance in this election, McCain . . . has to have them understand that this is not another eight years of what they perceive as bad government."
Some of the people at a rally in St. Louis criticized Obama for making more of a connection between Bush and McCain than is warranted. "He isn't George Bush," said Cathy Beck, 49, who runs a small business with her husband. "I think this has been one of the unfairest campaigns of my lifetime."
Craig Shirley, a conservative consultant and author of the forthcoming "Rendezvous With Destiny," about Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign, said in an interview that McCain is doing the "right thing" before Election Day. But he said the senator avoided the one major break he could have made with Bush -- opposing the Wall Street rescue package.
Going against Bush would have put voters on notice that McCain is a different kind of politician, Shirley said.
"He would have helped himself immensely if he had opposed the bailout," he said. "All the elites were all arrayed against the American people. He would have been the populist champion standing up" to them.
Shear reported from Washington. Polling director Jon Cohen contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 21, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Virginia
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Ricky Carioti -- The Washington Post; Sen. John McCain meets with local business leaders at Buckingham Smokehouse Bar-B-Q in Columbia, Mo.
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The Washington Post
All Rights Reserved
161 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 21, 2008 Tuesday 1:00 PM EST
Station Break: Talkng Heads, Presidential Debates, Palin, Actors and Age Differences;
Pop Culture and More
BYLINE: Paul Farhi, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4771 words
HIGHLIGHT: Down to the wire: Who wins your plaudits and damnation among the mainstream media's vast array of talking heads during this political season? Station Break's Paul Farhi was online Tuesday, Oct. 21, at 1 p.m. ET to offer some high- and low-lights.
Down to the wire: Who wins your plaudits and damnation among the mainstream media's vast array of talking heads during this political season? Station Break's Paul Farhi was online Tuesday, Oct. 21, at 1 p.m. ET to offer some high- and low-lights.
A transcript follows.
Farhi is a reporter in The Post's Style section, writing about media and popular culture. He's been watching TV and listening to the radio since "The Monkees" were in first run and Adam West was a star. Born in Brooklyn and raised in Los Angeles, Farhi had brief stints in the movie business (as an usher at the Picwood Theater), and in the auto industry (rental car lot guy) before devoting himself full-time to word processing. His car has 15 radio pre-sets and his cable system has 500 channels. He vows to use all of them for good instead of evil.
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Paul Farhi: Greetings, all, and step right up. Since we're coming down to the wire in "the most important election of our lives" (I've heard that said for several elections and not sure what it means, exactly), I thought it might be apropos (or not) to offer a completely subjective list of the winners and losers from the media-entertainment industrial complex during this campaign. So here goes (and feel free to hector the typist):
Winner: The mainstream media. Yes, I'm a card-carrying member of the dreaded MSM, but I still think my colleagues here and out there have done a very good job of covering this wretchedly long campaign. For all the noise kicked up by bloggers, I can't think of many big stories that we owned and they didn't (shout out, however, to the awesomely named blogger Mayhill Fowler for breaking Obama's "bitter-guns-religion" comments during the primaries).
Loser: Keith Olbermann. KO has successfully turned himself into the anti-O'Reilly and a scathing Bush critic, but what now? If Obama wins--I said "if"--doesn't he lose half his act?
Winner: Rush Limbaugh, Fox News' pundits, conservative talkers. Flip side of the Olbermann Conundrum. These folk always have something to rant about, but a liberal administration and Congress looks to be a big fat pinata. Conservatives seem to do their best work while casting themselves in the role of aggrieved underdog. This time, it might even be true.
Loser: Frank Caliendo. Caliendo, an outstanding impersonator/impressionist, does a great John Madden, but his McCain is still a work in progress and his Barack Obama is still largely unseen.
Winner: Fred Armisen. He's "Saturday Night Live's" go-to Obama guy. Again, assuming the polls are right, he could have a four- to eight-year job guarantee.
Loser: Every liberal filmmaker/documentarian (which is just about every filmmaker, period). The Bush Administration was an unending gift to Michael Moore and his ilk. Would Obama be as kind?
Winner: John King's "Magic Wall." CNN's King has that whole "let-me-show-you-how-women-are-voting-in-Cuyahoga-County" touchscreen thing down. It's a gimmick, sure, but a really gee-whiz gimmick.
Well, enough. Let's go to the phones...
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Purcellville, Va.: Hi Paul,
Those of us who aren't old enough to remember the Kennedy/Nixon debate in 1960 have been told that the candidates' physical appearance on TV changed a lot of minds (Kennedy good-looking, Nixon unshaven, etc.). Watching the last debate between Obama and McCain on my big-screen, high-def TV (thankfully, it's paid for), I was struck by McCain's appearance. His eyes were red-rimmed and watery, for example, and in the split-screen format, we could see his satisfied smile after answering a serious question and while Obama was talking. Maybe part of it was the lighting for this particular debate (for his part, Obama looked sallow and angular), but that doesn't explain McCain's seeming lack of self-control when he thought he was off camera. My question is, have you heard anyone else talking about this? Despite the pundits calling the debate a draw immediately afterward or praising McCain's stronger performance, the public polling in the following days gave Obama a clear win. It seems that appearance does still matter, at least with televised debates.
Paul Farhi: Hi, P-Ville (which sounds very much like it could be in "the real Virginia," as determined by McCain aide Nancy Pfotenhauer on MSNBC the other day, not that commie Northern Virginia)...There's been a fair amount of comment about the split screen differences between the two. On balance, I thought it didn't help McCain (for all the reasons you cite). But Obama didn't come off all that great, either. He kept smiling whenever McCain attacked him (which was often). What's up with that?...But I'm not sure how much that really matters. Reason: Palin looked better than Biden in their debate, yet poll after poll found Biden the winner.
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Washington, D.C.: I thought SNL dropped the ball with the McCain-Obama debate. They should have used the split screen and accentuated McCain's creepy and incessant blinking. Also, it would not have been original, because they did it with Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, but I would have loved to have seen them show each candidate's "inner thoughts" as the other was speaking. I always remember when they had Poppy imagining Clinton in full hippie regalia shrouded by a cloud of "smoke." Perhaps Obama thinking about decorating the White House while McCain is speaking and McCain fuming about whether Obama had a pulse.
Paul Farhi: I thought that entire show was a bit of a disappointment. Maybe my expectations were too high, but they had some great elements to work with: the election, the real Palin, the fake Palin (Fey), two fake George Bush's (Josh Brolin and Jason Sudeikis), plus Alec Baldwin, Oliver Stone and Marky Mark. And outside of the Palin "rap" -- which Palin didn't even do -- there weren't all that many laughs or much satire.
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Arlington, Va.: How can I find out who plays Rachel, the girl who is in the Sprint Instinct commercial who wants to "have it all" with a phone? Why don't they make this type of information easy to find, like a TV commercial IMDb?
washingtonpost.com: Sprint Instinct Commercial
Paul Farhi: Maybe because they're worried about creepy stalker people? (I'm not calling you a CSP, Arlington, I'm just sayin'...). My advice, however: Track down Sprint's ad agency; they might tell you.
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Falls Church, Va.: Lou Dobbs calls himself "Mr. Independent," but a more a propos title would be "Mr. Windbag." I'm amazed he can get guests on his show, since he rarely lets any guest actually answer the questions asked, but interrupts them to pontificate his own opinion. He is far from independent. He leans very far to the right of independence.
Paul Farhi: You know who I feel sorry for? The reporters and journalists who have to deliver the Dobbsian slant on their stories. Poor Kitty Pilgrim (what a great name!): She has to play the straight woman to Grumpy Lou...
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Detroit, Mich.: Paul: what's up with all these ads on the radio? There are too many of them. Please tell all of your radio friends that there are too many ads, and they need to play some more songs.
Paul Farhi: Agree. As I've said before, I can't imagine that those 5, 6 7-minute "pods" or clusters of ads work. Does anyone sit through one of those relentless assaults? I know I'm hitting the buttons as soon as I hear the "we have to take a break, stick with us" message.
One thing that I think works on WTOP, by the way, is how they drop in the ads around the news, weather, traffic. A minute here, a minute there. It works much better. And as I understand it, WTOP is the top revenue station, by far, in the Washington area.
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Lake Ridge, Va.: Further proof that the broadcast radio business is in the dumps, both Don Geronimo and the Greaseman have listed their $1.5 million McMansions for sale.
Paul Farhi: A shame to lose the likes of 'em both. I suspect we won't see their kind again.
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Fairfax City, Va.: Paul: we just got back from being out of the country for a few months, and we missed the end of "For Better or For Worse." Is it true that the entire extended family died in a horrific plane crash in the Northwest, and that the only character who survived is the old dog?
Paul Farhi: I dunno, because I've always put "For Better or For Worse" in the same lame category as "Family Circle" and "Cathy." To me, FBOFW makes "Beetle Baily" seem hip n' happenin'...
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Cleveland, Ohio: Paul: what if Queen Latifah had married Steven King and taken his last name? She would have been Queen King. Names are funny sometimes, aren't they?
Paul Farhi: Some red-carpet TV interviewer once actually asked Queen Latifah if her date was her husband, King Latifah....
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Greater Green Bay: Actually, Limbaugh should get a Loser tag; he bought the New York Post story that Michelle Obama was living it up at the Waldorf when, in actuality, she never stayed there (today's N.Y. Post Page 6 makes the correction). Limbaugh and other nut job talkers made much of this and it's fun to see it go bad on them.
Paul Farhi: Yeah, but he can always blame the stinkin' MSM for steering him wrong. So he's covered. Kind of.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Hi Paul, I think the talking heads of comedy will shine through no matter who wins. They have upped their games in the last two years, regardless of the target. They aren't dependent on a left or right-leaning viewpoint -- just a point of view on the day's events and absurdities, which are sure to continue no matter who's in charge. And it looks like a couple of conservative pundits may now have new work on the left!
Paul Farhi: Staying neutral is almost always the best career move. I thought Dennis Miller's post-9/11 transformation into a "conservative" comic was a disaster. Message to entertainers: No one really cares about your politics. They care about your entertaining-ness.
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Rockville, Md.: There's this dumb new "show" on NBC that isn't funny and isn't clever called "Kath and Kim," and Molly Shannon, who in real life is 44 years old, plays the mother of a character played by Selma Blair --- who in real life is 36 years old. Although the two women are attractive, Molly Shannon looks like a woman in her early 40s, and Selma Blair looks like a woman in her mid 30s. That's just reality. In no way do they look like a mother and daughter -- in fact, they look like suburban next-door neighbors. Just how stupid have the producers and executives at NBC become? They all need to be fired -- and so does this show.
Paul Farhi: I'll caveat this next comment by saying I haven't seen "Kath and Kim" yet. But: 1) the promos for it were consistently hilarious; and 2) the age difference makes no difference if the characters/situations are funny and convincing...My favorite in this regard is "The Graduate." Dustin Hoffman was, I think, 28 at the time, playing a 22-year-old. Anne Bancroft was, I think, 36 at the time, playing, well, an older woman who seduces the 22-year-old Hoffman. And tell me that that situation didn't work?
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Ballston, Va.: It's time for Nicole Richie, Paris Hilton, Jessica Simpson, Pam Anderson, all of the Kadashians, Tara Reid, Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan and Miley Cyrus to retire. Just retire. So we don't have to hear about them ever again for the next 50 generations.
Paul Farhi: I'm still trying to figure out what social need coverage of these ladies fulfills. Because there's obviously a very large market for it. Could it be that we just like to see pretty/wealthy/famous-for-being-famous people in some kind of turmoil (rehab, car wrecks, divorce, arrests, etc.) because it makes us feel better about the turmoil in our own lives? Or do we just like pictures and stories about pretty young women, period?
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Winner: The mainstream media: I thought you guys were the "liberal elite media."
Paul Farhi: I liked Tina-as-Sarah's phrasing the other night: "The liberal elite media and the regular liberal media." Because poorly paid reporters from, I don't know, Idaho or Wyoming probably don't consider themselves very elite...
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Potomac Village: Is it true that Citadel is going to buy all of the radio stations from ClearChannel, Bonneville, Liberty, Westwood, Radio One, ABC, CBS, Bloomberg, Hearst, RKO, Dumont and Acme Radio?
Paul Farhi: Citadel? Isn't its stock worth even less than an Iceland bank?
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Fairfax Apartments #12-J: Age in movies -- one of the more famous examples is that Angela Lansbury was just three years older than Lawrence Harvey when she played his mother in "The Manchurian Candidate."
Paul Farhi: Wow. Even better than "The Graduate"! And I gotta say, Angela really did seem like Larry's mom in that movie (I guess Angela, who has been a very talented performer for a very long time, has always played "old," even when she wasn't')....
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Falls Church, Va.: Greaseman's gone again!? I only just rediscovered him.
Paul Farhi: Gone to Jacksonville, Fla., from whence he came back when.
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Don Geroni, MO: Before he retired from the air -- didn't Don Geronimo make it pretty clear that he was packing up and moving to the Eastern Shore (Ocean City, Md.) area? So, it doesn't surprise me that his north Virginia home would be for sale.
Paul Farhi: Right. And between his non-compete contract with CBS, he wasn't coming back to this area for a while, anyway...Don, by the way, seriously considered retiring to the beach in Florida several years (he walked away from buying a place there at the last minute). This was not long before his wife died and everything changed for him.
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The Airless Cubicle: Hey, Paul -- I like hulu.com very much. Why can't CBS and ABC build their video-on-demand sites to have similar functionality? My daughter reclaimed her TV when she moved out and wife and I are using the 'pute until December sales of digital TVs make them affordable in a recession.
Paul Farhi: Am a fan of the Hulu, too. But CBS just made an announcement about building out their video offerings (and with a chat-function as well, in case you want to type while you watch )...And funny, isn't it? As TVs get bigger and TV pictures get better, we're still watching shows on crappy small screens; only now the screens are computers instead of TV sets.
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Falls Church, Va.: On the Dick Van Dyke Show, he was actually about 35 and Mary Tyler Moore was about 20.
Paul Farhi: Well, close but not quite. Says here DVD is 82 and MTM is 71.
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Say hey to your mother for me...: I thought the Marky Mark bit was funny.
Paul Farhi: I thought it was a movie promo wrapped in a tortured one-note joke that went on far too long.
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Blinking equals Lying: Detectives and psychologists use excessive blinking as a way to determine whether or not a person is lying. McCain was blinking so hard in the last debate I thought his eyeballs were going to roll out onto the floor! LOL!
Paul Farhi: Maybe he just had something in his eyes. Or maybe it has something to do with age. Or maybe you're right. Or not.
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Keystone Stater: Sarah Palin dichotomizes our country into pro-American and anti-American parts. Minnesota's Michele Bachmann blames Chris Matthews for putting words in her mouth after she replied to him that Obama "absolutely" has anti-American views (when all she needed to have said was "No he doesn't, but I think...").
Do you think these statements are more effective in rallying the Republicans' extreme-right base to turn out the vote in their favor, or in mobilizing Democrats and undecideds to vote against them? Are there data on how effective polarizing statements have been in past elections?
Paul Farhi: I'll leave the political analysis to others....Well, okay, I won't: Between Nancy Pfotenhauer's "real Virginia" comment and John-bro Joe McCain's public joke that he was once stationed in the "commie" part of Virginia (i.e., Arlington and Alexandria), this can't be great for the Republicans in NoVa. And NoVA is the most important (vote-wise) part of the state. Whoever wins there is going to win Virginia, real or imagined.
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CBS online: Just found the 90210 'classic' episodes on CBS.com. So, so, so much better than the new show. I watched Brenda and Dylan's first break-up on Sunday and it was just as moving as it was in 1992. Thank you CBS!
Paul Farhi: The internet provides...
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Purcellville, Va., again: Paul, you may be right about my town being inside Pffuffin- whatever's "real Virginia," but I'm very excited about seeing Obama tomorrow in nearby Leesburg!
Here's another question for you: What hot new TV shows are you recording but not watching? For me, it's "Fringe," which is filling up my DVR and I am debating deleting.
Paul Farhi: I've watched "Fringe." I would delete it. I liked "Chocolate News" on ComCentral, but I will caveat that by saying I've only seen one episode. It was very good, but comedy (particularly sketch comedy) is far more uneven and inconsistent than regular old series TV.
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And outside of the Palin "rap" -- which Palin didn't even do: Stupid question warning:
Was she supposed to do it? I thought the joke and the script had her say that she decided not to do it so Pohler ("unexpectedly") jumped in. Was Palin really supposed to do the rap and didn't do it at the last moment? Was her bowing out ad libbed? I didn't think so but your comment above and several on TV made me think I was wrong.
Paul Farhi: I have no insight on this, but my reading was this: She couldn't do it, partly as a political matter and partly as a performance matter. If you've never rapped before (and I'm assuming there aren't all that many open-mic nights in Wasilla), it's pretty easy to mess up. I'm thinking she avoided looking silly, on several levels.
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Mom-daughter age difference: On the 1950s TV series "Meet Millie," the mom of the title character (Elena Verdugo) was played by Flo Halop (decades later a bailiff on "Night Court"). Flo was only two years older than Elena.
Paul Farhi: Okay, how about Vivian Vance and William Frawley on "I Love Lucy." Vance was barely two years older than Lucille Ball, and came to resent being "married" to Frawley, who was 21 years older than her. She thought it made her seem older than she was.
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Rachel Maddow: Can I just say as a conservative leaning Republican (I say leaning because I'm voting for Obama, the days of voting for neocons are over for me) that I love her show? It's absolutely excellent, and yeah she's a liberal, but she isn't so in an obnoxious way like Olbermann is, and on the right O'Reilly is. You can tell she's very smart (even before finding out about her Ph.D. from Oxford) and she actually lets people with other opinions on her show. I love seeing her and Pat Buchanan have it out, though in a surprisingly respectful and light-hearted way.
Paul Farhi: I am attracted to her intelligence/smarts, too. But the whole thing about letting people give their opinions? Yeah, that's PBS or NPR. She'll never last on regular cable.
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For Better or for Worse: I stopped reading it a long time ago so I don't know what happened. But that comic strip had a huge following. People got crazy over it. When one of the characters came out of the closet, there was an uproar; some people canceled their newspaper subscriptions. I mean, just stop reading the stupid strip if it upsets you.
Paul Farhi: Understood. People are very, very devoted to their favorite strip(s). As you probably already know, we delete strips at our peril. Readers go nuts, nuts, nuts when we yank their fave. Always have.
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Was she supposed to do it? : I don't think so. I think that was how they got her to agree to do the show. She was able to come on without doing anything too embarrassing. And her comments with Lorne were like "I don't think one of my press conferences would have gone like that."
All scripted.
Paul Farhi: Right. There was a heavy flavor of lawyering and pre-show vetting to her appearance. I can totally understand it. This is an absolutely critical time for both campaigns. No one is going on a show like that without knowing exactly what's in store...On the other hand, Letterman's interview with John McCain last week was one of the tougher I've seen.
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But the whole thing about letting people give their opinions? Yeah, that's PBS or NPR. She'll never last on regular cable. : You may be wrong, the Post's evil competitor in New York had a story today saying that Maddow is kicking Larry "Middle of the Road" King's butt on some nights.
Paul Farhi: Point noted. And, of course, King has lasted forever on CNN without much opinion mongering (although I hear he really, really likes Sinatra)...
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Vance was barely two years older than Lucille Ball, and came to resent being "married" to Frawley, who was 21 years older than her. She thought it made her seem older than she was. : Okay, so don't take the part then.
Paul Farhi: I guess her attitude must have evolved over time, as the show became enormously popular. But you're right -- it made Vivian Vance's career. Can you name anything else she was in?
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Mother-son age difference:"Alexander" -- Angelina Jolie was Colin Farrell's mother. 1 year age difference.
Paul Farhi: Wow. Unless we go into negative-differential territory, that's surely gonna be our winner. Stay on the line and we'll get you a big, big prize....
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For Better or For Worse: Ummm, according to this article it's staying.
The Verdict on For Better or For Worse ( The Oregonian, Oct. 20)
Paul Farhi: Did we say it was going? Lynn Johnston announced recently that she was gonna re-write her originals....
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People are very, very devoted to their favorite strip(s). : We sure are. I have avoided you snobbish, effete, latte-sipping elitists ever since you dropped "Andy Capp." Why couldn't you people appreciate Andy for the bourgeois satire that it was? No, all you guys heard was the 'limey accent...
Paul Farhi: I grew up reading Andy Capp. I never really got it, but I like the accents.
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I live in Farifax: and everyone I know out here is voting for Obama, including my parents who until the last couple of years would never have voted for a Democrat. I always thought of Fairfax County as conservative, but have we crossed over into being anti-American?
Paul Farhi: Welcome to the, um, un-American part of America, Fairfax. Which, according to the polls, is now about 51-5 percent of the country.
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Age difference: Estelle Getty was a year younger than Bea Arthur, though she played Bea's mom on The Golden Girls.
Paul Farhi: No! Lemme check that...YES! Estelle: Born July 1923. Bea: Born May 1922.
Houston, we have achieved negative differential! (Please withdraw the big, big prize from the Jolie-Farrell contributor and award it by Estelle-Bea, please...)
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Blinking: You know what else causes blinking? Being in front of bright lights, say like when you're doing something that's being filmed for TV.
Paul Farhi: But didn't Obama have the same lights to stare into as McCain? And Obama didn't blink nearly half as much....
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Age difference: Sally Field playing Tom Hanks' girlfriend in "Stand Up" and then his mother in Forrest Gump. Eww.
Paul Farhi: Now that's a separate category -- the funky dual role. And, yes, that one really does mess with one's head! Maybe Sally didn't age too good (actually, on the face of the evidence, she's aged perfectly well)....
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Laurel, Md.: Jeff Greenfield in "The Real Campaign" points out that in 1960 there would have been profound demographic differences between people who watched the presidential debate on TV (and thought Kennedy won) and listened on radio (and thought Nixon won). The TV and radio audience would likely have skewed for Kennedy and Nixon, respectively, anyway.
Paul Farhi: Right -- that's one of the pieces of conventional wisdom about the 1960 debate. But, um, not a whole lot of relevance here. Do many people listen to the debates on radio anymore? A few, sure, but it hardly gets factored in, like it did in '60.
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Ethel Mertz: I must admit that blonde and gray don't look much different in black and white.
Paul Farhi: Interesting point. Frawley sure seemed like a geezer on that show, but perhaps the age difference was muted by the B&W (plus Vance was a little more rotund than Lucy, which possibly accentuated the perceived age difference between 'em).
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Age Difference: Glenn Close played Robin William's mom in "The World According to Garp".
Paul Farhi: But have we achieved the vaunted neg-age diff? Let's go to the Google machine:
Close: Born March 1947,
Williams: Born July 1951 (some sources say 1952).
Survey says...No.
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Can you name anything else (Vivian Vance) was in? : Although "Lucy" in its various incarnations made Vance's career, according to IMDb she also appeared in, inter alia, Blake Edwards' "The Great Race," and episodes of "Love, American Style," "Rhoda," and guested 5 times on Red Skelton's show.
Paul Farhi: Yeah. But you had to check IMDb. Try that unassisted. Couldn't be done.
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa: FBOFW: The strip ended with a capping off telling what happened to the characters in the rest of their lives. Ms. Johnston has gone back to the beginning redoing the strip. The local paper here in Cedar Rapids has stopped running the strip and I have quit following it since it has run its course.
Bring back Calvin and Hobbes!
Paul Farhi: Right, but I bet hard-core fans are eating up the re-do. To each his/her/their own.
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Taneytown, Md.: I live in a blue state, but in a red county. Am I un-American, or just a commie sympathizer? It gets so confusing.
I can't wait until November 5...
Paul Farhi: Sure. And what if you were gay in a red county in a red state? Or Muslim in Utah? Or pro-choice anywhere? Or...oh, Lord, my head is spinning....
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State College, Pa.: Paul, I can't believe you name the MSM as a winner. Once again, most of the attention is on the horse race aspect of the election, not an examination of the issues and policies. Even more disappointing is the utter and complete lack of attention given to the Libertarian, Green, Constitutional and other so-called third-party candidates. None of them were even invited to be part of the "debates." The media should cover these other candidates with similar gusto as the Big Two, and insist that they be part of the process.
Paul Farhi: I did a profile of Ralph Nader earlier this year, and he certainly made those points. It is true that by keeping everyone but the "major" party candidates out of the debates, you're reinforcing the idea that there are only two major parties. But that's not the media's doing; the private debate commission makes/made those calls. And there's actually a fair amount of media coverage of the other party candidates. Not nearly as much as Obama and McCain, of course (not even close), but that stuff is out there.
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Arlington, Va.: Crispin Glover (April 20, 1064) played the father of Michael J. Fox (June 9, 1961) in Back to the Future.
Paul Farhi: Judges?....[Sound of buzzer}. Oh, sorry. Too late. The valuable prizes have already been awarded. But we have some lovely parting gifts....
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Paul Farhi: Folks, once again, you've validated my faith in the wonders of the crowd. I'm pretty sure there's nowhere else in America today, or the world, dammit, where a group of people got together and discussed the important matters that we considered here today. And we should be happy for that (someone has to actually work). So, we should leave it there for the moment. But we can try again next time. What say a week from now, hmmm? I'll pencil you in...In the meantime, have a great week. And as always, regards to all...Paul.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 21, 2008 Tuesday 12:00 PM EST
Chatological Humor: In Which Gene Reveals Himself to be a Word Snob of the First Order (UPDATED 10.22.08);
aka Tuesdays With Moron
BYLINE: Gene Weingarten, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 10049 words
HIGHLIGHT: Daily Updates: WED
Daily Updates: WED
Gene Weingarten's humor column, Below the Beltway, appears every Sunday in The Washington Post magazine. It is syndicated nationally by the Washington Post Writers Group.
At one time or another, Below the Beltway has managed to offend persons of both sexes as well as individuals belonging to every religious, ethnic, regional, political and socioeconomic group. If you know of a group we have missed, please write in and the situation will be promptly rectified. "Rectified" is a funny word.
On Tuesdays at noon, Weingarten is online to take your questions and abuse. He will chat about anything. Although this chat is updated regularly throughout the week, it is not and never will be a "blog," even though many persons keep making that mistake. One reason for the confusion is the Underpants Paradox: Blogs, like underpants, contain "threads," whereas this chat contains no "threads" but, like underpants, does sometimes get funky and inexcusable.
This Week's Poll: 37 and Younger| 38 and Older
Important, secret note to readers: The management of The Washington Post apparently does not know this chat exists, or it would have been shut down long ago. Please do not tell them. Thank you.
Weingarten is also the author of "The Hypochondriac's Guide to Life. And Death" and co-author of "I'm with Stupid," with feminist scholar Gina Barreca.
New to Chatological Humor? Read the FAQ.
P.S. If composing your questions in Microsoft Word please turn off the Smart Quotes functionality. I haven't the time to edit them out. -- Liz
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Gene Weingarten: Good afternoon.
I seldom see first-run movies in real time, meaning I almost never get the opportunity to review them here in any helpful way. But on Saturday, I saw "W.", and have some exciting news. The bad news is that "W." is a poor movie -- simplistic and heavy-handed, as Oliver Stone movies tend to be -- but the good news is that it delivers a must-see performance. After an adulthood of searching, I have finally found a worthy successor to Shelley Duvall in "The Shining" for the Worst Single Acting Job in Film History.
Remember Shelley as Wendy Torrance? Googly-eyed, bobbleheaded, open-mouthed, a one-dimensional, manic, yowling Munch-ian absurdity? I have said that no one could create a worse role, but someone has. It's Thandie Newton as Condoleezza Rice, a lookalike role she plays, for some reason, with an unintelligible, unmodulated simper. It's hard to figure whether the portrayal was intended to be funny, or critical, or surreal, or what. In my theater it drew some nervous, bewildered laughter, but mostly slack-jawed disbelief. The reviews I have seen so far are somewhat unkind to Ms. Newton, and to Mr. Stone for misusing her. These reviews were not nearly unkind enough.
(Please note that I make a distinction between the worst acting PERFORMANCE of all time and the worst ACTOR of all time. The worst actor of all time, at least in the age of cinema, was Peter Lupus, who started in low-budget gladiator films but graduated to the ensemble role of the muscleman Willy Armitage in TV's original "Mission: Impossible." Peter's acting deficits were so great that over the run of the show they had him say fewer and fewer lines until he was reduced entirely to grunts and muscle flexor. On the two or three occasions when he had to attempt to adopt an Eastern European accent to fit into some undercover role, the results wound up moistening more than a few 60s-era living room beanbag chairs.)
Anyway, that's my review. Thandie Newton as Condoleezza Rice: Must-see cinema.
--
Today's poll ( 37 and Younger| 38 and Older) was created by me, based upon my own insufferable certitude about word pronunciation. I make none of the mistakes listed in the poll. Several posters have already denounced me for elitism, a charge I would like to address preemptively. My elitism was driven into me at a young age by my mother, who was icily intolerant of mispronunciation. She had a reason. In the late 1930s, the New York City school system was trying to limit the number of first-generation Jewish women it hired, while still adhering to the letter of the fair-hiring laws. They did this with a northern version of a poll tax or literacy test: They insisted that all new teachers speak with completely unaccented English, a daunting task for some young women who, like my mother, grew up in Russian, Polish, or Yiddish-speaking households.
To this day, my ma remains the only person I've ever know who pronounced the word "ed-you-kay-shun."
(Manteuffel says "Your mother actually did what they wanted: She took the 'Jew' out of education.")
Several readers are asking why I did not include the "nucular" option in the poll. Simple: It would have provoked political, not linguistic, outrage, and the results would have been suspect. Also, for those who aksed, I didn't go there because I believe there is an ethnic component to that mispronunciation. Same reason I didn't do "all right already," an abomination never uttered by a gentile.
So, take the poll. I find it curious that the young'uns on the average make more mistakes than we oldies, and also that, for some reason, the yoot is MUCH more likely to say "man-aise."
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I may have posted this many months ago. It seems familiar, but if so it remains intriguing: Pick your right foot off the floor and make clockwise circles with it. While doing this, draw the number 6 in the air with your right hand. Your foot will change direction, or at the least become hopelessly confused.
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Two CLODS today, on the same topic. The first is this dramatic reading by Chris Schneider of an actual Wasilla town meeting.
And this is Saturday's Daily Show sendup of Wasilla.
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We had a terrible comics week, and I will award no prizes, though there are some things worth noting.
First, last week's Doonesbury sequence ( Tues| Thurs), in which we learn Obama hit eight of 10 three-pointers in two pickup games of "Horse" with our troops is neat because of an inside joke: Obama actually did confirm this personally to Trudeau, just as he does to Rick Redfern in the strip. Of course, Trudeau's reach is a little greater than that of a blogger.
Second, I direct you all to Frazz on Monday, which is a fine strip, possible worthy of CPOW, except for an egregious error. "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock" may well be unconventionally rhymed, but it is hardly "free verse." Check this out:
LET us go then, you and I,
When the evening is spread out against the sky
Like a patient etherised upon a table;
Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,
The muttering retreats
Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels
And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:
Streets that follow like a tedious argument
Of insidious intent
To lead you to an overwhelming question ...
Oh, do not ask, "What is it?"
Let us go and make our visit.
In the room the women come and go
Talking of Michelangelo.
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Boo to Wednesday's Beetle Bailey for ruining a joke. It would have hurt them to say "poop'"?
And finally, I liked today's Mother Goose and Grimm.
Okay, let's go.
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Washington, D.C.: Hooray for today's poll! I love passing judgement on the way other people use language. Especially when they try to make some lame "languages evolve" argument to defend themselves.
Here's another one for you: a very high-powered Washington insider who has been to more plenary sessions than I have hairs on my head, and STILL pronounces it "plenerary".
washingtonpost.com: Me, I like passing judgment on people who misspell judgment.
Gene Weingarten: I like passing judgment on people who criticize others for errors in judgement when, in fact, the issue is a permitted variant.
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Ellicott City, Md: There is one you don't have in your poll, that grates on me to no end, Specifically pronounced as Pacifically.
Gene Weingarten: Yes, very bad. Others have mentioned this.
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Gene Weingarten: Oooh, a confession.
In researching common mispronunciations, I did find a word I mispronounce all the time. Apparently, a herb, as in oregano, is not an erb. It is a herb.
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Chevy Chase, DC: Gene, knowing what a dog lover you are, I had to submit this story to you. This past Saturday, I brought my 4 year old collie/retriever mix to the groomer for a bath. The groomer was about 2.5 miles down Connecticut from my house. After dropping her off, I returned home to find a voice mail on my phone telling me that they had had an "incident" in which my dog had jumped out of her crate, over the counter, and ran out the front door of the store. So there she was, running around Cleveland Park, with half the staff of the store chasing after her in their cars. Upon receiving this call, I immediately started to gather up her favorite treats to head out to look for her and envisioned a long night of searching and putting "Missing Dog" fliers up. Just as I was about to leave the house, I heard a faint barking outside. I knew that bark. I went to our back porch, and sure enough, there was my dog, standing in the neighbor's yard, barking at the house because she couldn't get over the fence. In less than an hour, my dog had traversed more than 2 miles through heavy traffic on Connecticut Ave. to make her way directly home. Do I officially have the smartest dog ever?
Gene Weingarten: The second smartest.
"Old Dogs" contains a similar story, but in reverse. Stanley the Jack Russell terrier found his way from his home to his vet. Why? Because he had liked what had happened there the day before, when his semen was extracted for a mating.
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"Exact same": My dad used to get on me for saying this--saying it was incorrect grammar and unnecessarily repetitive. I still say it, and feel like a tool every time I do.
Gene Weingarten: It is terrible. Pat the Perfect disagrees with me, one of the few areas where she is imperfect.
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New York, N.Y.: Last week in the times, there was an article about the history of the use of Hebrew on campaign buttons to pick up the Jewish vote. A particularly good one from 2000 had pictures of Gore and Bush. Under Gore's picture was the Hebrew transliteration of "Gore." Under W's picture was "Gore-Nischt."
A yiddish pun! I want this! Other than ebay, where can I find it?
Gene Weingarten: Ebay.
And yes, it's brilliant. "Gore-nischt," to my memory, basically means "Nuttin'"
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Prufrock: My husband of 24 years used to recite Prufrock to me while dating. thanks, it brought back a fond memory.
Gene Weingarten: I also have it memorized.
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Arlington, Va.: I assume you saw the abomination that was Godfather III. How does Thandie Newton's work in "W" compare to the horribleness that was Sofia Coppola in G-III? She was thrust into the role at the last minute because Winona Rider was too tired to fulfill her commitment (huh?) and performed like a deer with a high watt spotlight trained in her eyes at all time.
I was so happy for her when she found directing and had success on that side of the camera. However, I will have to see "W" just to see if Ms. Newton has replaced Ms. Coppola as worst performance by a serious actor in a serious film. I consider it a high bar to reach.
Gene Weingarten: It's a smaller role, so the comparison will be tarnished.
It's impossible to do any role worse than Thandie did this.
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Spit question: Asking you a health question is much easier than trying to find a doctor to ask, so... what does it mean when your saliva tastes metallic and your tongue is a bit numb, or thick feeling? This began a few weeks ago. I'm not on any medications and I feel fine, but it's unpleasant. Do I need to go to a doc or a dentist? Or just get used to it?
Gene Weingarten: Sounds like the onset of a cold or a minor nasal infection.
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You forgot...: Moot/Mute -- this is like nails on a chalkboard to me!!
Conversate/Converse
Gene Weingarten: Who the heck says conversate?
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It Drives Me Nuts: (not the steering wheel on the pirate's pants)
People who say their area of expertise is their "fort-ay". It ain't.
Gene Weingarten: I fixed that some years ago.
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Gaithersburg, Md.:"Little Dog Lost" -- Do you like this strip? I don't think much of it -- is it just me?
Gene Weingarten: I'm not ready to make a pronouncement. It is a character-driven strip, meaning you really need to know these guys before you can decide if you like 'em. I like how old and grouchy the tortoise is, and I like that there is an opportunistic vulture.
I haven't seen enough make-me-laugh gags yet. But I'm still watching.
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Annandale VA: In this week's poll, there should be some way to determine what part of the country the respondant is from --
Some of the mispronunciations could be merely the result of accent. For instance, both verbiage and foliage are both easily elided to remove the i syllable.
Some of the correct pronunciations are so uncommonly heard that they sound pretentious, or as we might say , stuck-up.
Gene Weingarten: Sorry, but "folage" and "verbage" are simply illiteracies. They are not regionalisms. They are utterances of people who think those are the right words.
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Surviving Oba, MA: To the conservative/Republican person last week who expressed angst and loathing at the thought of a President B.O., I can tell her how I'm approaching this apparent Democrat ascendancy: It won't last.
By my math, I give the Dems six years in power -- eight tops. By that time, our entitlement system will be crashing in on itself, because none of the liberals will want to "cut" Medicare and Social Security, even though they're paying out benefits that everyone knows we can't afford. The dollar will crash, interest rates (and mortgage rates) will rise, and Republicans will be called upon to fix the mess. It will pretty much be a repeat of what we're dealing with now, only cleaning up government rather than the private sector.
So the poster should just bide her time and take the long view -- it's what I'm doing...
Gene Weingarten: On Sept. 11, 2001, I turned to a coworker and said that I was really hoping that in three years I would vote for George W. Bush out of gratitude.
So.
Your views have been noted.
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Pronunciationville: I consider myself very well spoken but I can't figure out some of your pronunciation options.
What exactly is the difference between prerogative and perogative when spoken? Are you really articulating that r? If so, how? Is it like Pree-rogative? That sounds really wrong to me.
Who says Febooary? I say Feb-you-ary. I know I'm not pronouncing the r but really does anyone say "boo" like a ghost?
I predict that the ones that bother people the most will not correspond to the ones that they themselves are most likely to say.
Li-berry would get to me the most. I mean, really. Yes. I'm a bit of an elitist.
Gene Weingarten: You're not enough of an elitist if you do not hear the difference between prerogative and perogative. And no, it is not "pree" but yes, both r's should be clearly pronounced.
I am informed that more people say "asteriks" than say "asterik." Both pronunciations are wrong.
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Pat the Perfect, ME: In America at least, the primary accepted pronunciation is urb for herb. But an oregano-eating animal is A (not an) herbivore.
Who told you otherwise?
Gene Weingarten: It is?
A couple of websites swore it was Herb. Like Herb Tarlek.
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Long Beach, Calif.: They all looked like little kids doing impressions of famous people, aside from Brolin, Dreyfus and Cromwell, who was fabulous because he didn't even try to look like/imitate H.W.
Gene Weingarten: The guy who played Rove was the best of all. Totally nailed that character.
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Washington, D.C.:
The Republicans sent out video tapes touting McCain's wonderfulness. They used BETAMAX.
Gene Weingarten: By cracky, they have!
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Volkswagen: Have you seen any of the new Volkswagen commericals with Brook Sheilds? Here's one.
Am I being an oversensitive Jew to find them a little distasteful?
Gene Weingarten: To me, it's distasteful mostly because it's stupid.
If the couple had been Stanley and Leah Kaminsky, maybe it's also tasteless.
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think, IN: Gene
Is there such thing as an email affair? I think I'm getting involved in one where each of the two parties are sharing intimate - though not overtly sexual - sides of ourselves to seek validation from someone who is not our spouse. In real life we are over 1500 miles apart and haven't seen each other in 20+ years. Thought you might be a good person to ask with all of the virtual panties thrown your way. It feels good and safe now, just wondered what might be down the road.
Gene Weingarten: Everytime I express the opinion that there is nothing wrong with this sort of thing I get inundated by posts by indignant individuals who claim marriage permits no intimacy of thought whatsoever outside the bond.
So I won't say it this time.
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Washington, D.C.: How DO you say February? I have struggled with this all my life. It is my month of birth and it never seems to sound right no matter how I say it. I tried saying FebUary to fit in with my friends when I was younger, but that never seemed quite right as there was always that pesky R there. I say Feb-roo-ary now, which I suspect is closer to correct, but still doesn't feel right and often makes me feel pretentious, especially when others around me are pronounciating (just kidding) it differently. Usually I just try to say it very quickly, so that the middle sound is indistinguishable, so that my listening audience hears the important parts, the Feb and the ary. Please help me with this. I would define myself as an elitist when it comes to these matters, and while I try not to correct others because I want to still have friends, I hold myself to the highest standards. Thanks for bringing up this subject, Gene. It's a special one for me.
Gene Weingarten: February.
The dictionary also lists Febyouerry. Which I contemn.
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Herb: Who says "erb" is wrong? The two dictionaries I just checked listed both, with "erb" first. Merriam-Webster's says in the US it's usually "erb" and in Britain usually "herb."
Gene Weingarten: Okay, I guess we have hestablished that. Good. So I'm never wrong, after all.
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Washington, D.C.: Sometimes, I see a movie preview clip that is so awful, it guarantees that I will never see the movie. That's the case with 'W.' There was a scene about a Cabinet meeting -- I think they're discussing faulty intelligence on the war -- and Bush goes into his, 'Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice - you won't get fooled again' line. It's one that he only used in public once, and he stumbled over it so badly that it seemed clear that it wasn't one that he frequently used. But that clip seemed to suggest that he used it all the time, and stumbled over it just as badly in the same spot each time. I don't think so.
Gene Weingarten: The movie is immaturely filled with just exactly those moments, jammed in willy-nilly. Slam dunk is in there. So is misunderestimate.
It's a movie with a 97 IQ.
It has one great moment -- an extended scene -- very near the end.
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Gene Weingarten: There is also a nifty scene that is an in-joke for Spanish speakers. We see Bush talking Spanish to the wife of an injured soldier. The subtitles are in perfect English, but his Spanish is pidgin Spanish.
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Washington, D.C.: Gene Weingarten: It is? A couple of websites swore it was Herb. Like Herb Tarlek.
You relied on a couple of random web sites and didn't even bother to ask Pat the Perfect? Tsk. Tsk.
Gene Weingarten: I know shame.
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New York, NY:"Gene Weingarten: I like passing judgment on people who criticize others for errors in judgement when, in fact, the issue is a permitted variant."
Officially the smuggest thing ever typed in this or any chat ever.
Gene Weingarten: It's not smug so much as obnoxious and mannered and unfunny.
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Arlington, Va.: My forte is looking things up! The American Heritage Dictionary is my favorite because they have votes of a Usage Panel.
On forte, it says: "...the two-syllable version is widely accepted by educated speakers, and is preferred by 74 percent of the Usage Panel. -Those who use one syllable are] at an increasing risk of puzzling their listeners."
Gene Weingarten: I like that!
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Beta not Max:"Washington, D.C.:
The Republicans sent out video tapes touting McCain's wonderfulness. They used BETAMAX.
Gene Weingarten: By cracky, they have! "
Read the comments - they are not BetaMax, but modern professional grade digital video tapes whose format name happens to start with the word "Beta".
I'm still not voting for McCain, but give his campaign a little credit. I hope he needs all the credit he can get!
Gene Weingarten: Oh. Drat and tarnation.
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Palo Alto, CA: Re: Obama and Gay America
As I see it, your assertion at the end of last week's chat was this. Obama has certain views that he's sharing with most of the country. Then he has secret views that he's only sharing with a select part of the country. This part includes gay people and smart people. And they're all agreeing to keep the rest of the country in the dark, because they can't be trusted to make a decision based on all the facts.
I'm probably voting for Obama, but this is one of the reasons that I'm not terribly excited to do so.
Gene Weingarten: I didn't say that. I said there are things he believes that he cannot say. This has been true ever since people began running for office. To pretend that this is some great failing is to be very naive about politics.
Abe Lincoln could not say that he thought black people deserved an equal place in society. It would have killed him politically. Would you have preferred that he have said it, and not be elected?
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Pat the Perfect, ME: Gene Weingarten: It is?
A couple of websites swore it was Herb.
Note, people, that a professional writer, born 1951, when searching for a definitive ruling on the pronunciation of a word, now no longer thinks to look it up in a dictionary.
Gene Weingarten: We have already noted this. Thanks, Pat.
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Dr. Gene: I know you'll know this, O wise one. There are times when I am aware that I am not asleep, e.g., my mind is "awake". My husband will jostle me and tell me I'm snoring. How come I can't hear it if I'm not asleep? Why don't I hear snoring when I AM asleep -- there's apparently a lot of noise going on!
Gene Weingarten: This is true with me as well. Rib will inform me that I am snoring when I am patently COMPLETELY AWAKE.
She once proved it with a tape recorder. I am actually meeting with a memory expert this weekend, on an unrelated issue, and will ask and report back.
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Springfield, Va.: i don't understand the Volkswagon ads. I understand the words - but not the sense of it, certainly not enough to be offended. Will you explain, please?
Gene Weingarten: The suggestion is that women are getting pregnant so they can start a family and thus buy this spiffy VW SUV. But it doesn't actually explain why bringing her there is an "intervention." Moronic.
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McLean: I have not seen "W", but, based upon your description, Thandie Newton's performance may not be as horrid as you think.
Condoleezza Rice can come across as a bumblehead. My ex-wife encountered her during the transition in the basement of the transition building on G Street. Rice was attempting to find the door to the garage. According to my ex, Rice was totally disoriented, and was bumbling around the basement, trying to find the exit. This would have not been an issue if this had been Rice's first day in the building. However, this occurred about a month into the transition, when Rice had been shown the door to the garage several times. Apparently, Rice has neither directional nor spatial sense. That would easily lead to bobblehead behavior.
Gene Weingarten: See the movie, then report back.
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W and Thandie: Gene, every single review of that movie said both that it was bad and that Thandie Newton's performance was embarassingly bad. Why on earth did you waste the money? There are a lot of much better movies out that you could have seen. Life's too short to spend a few hours watching drek, no?
Gene Weingarten: I felt I had to see this movie for reasons related to my job.
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Misheard?: A woman I once worked with told me her mother had died from a combination of two conditions: ammonia and oldtimer's disease.
Gene Weingarten: Did she also have fireballs of the eucharist?
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Mispronunciations: Alas, you did not include the one my husband uses at least once a day: "acrosst" instead of "across." Yes, I have brought it to his attention, although I do not anymore because he doesn't even hear himself say it. Let's not even start on his regular usage of "could of went."
It does provides me with regularly occurring moments in which I, an English major and writer/editor, wonder why I married him. Then I consider my own flaws and go give him a kiss.
Gene Weingarten: Okay, this is cruel, but:
I could not marry someone who says "could of went."
Seriously.
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Rural Weddingsville, Va.: Hi Gene!
I am a reporter at a small weekly. Somehow, the tedious task of typing wedding announcements has fallen to me.
I just finished one, where the bride wore "a white taffeta strapless mermaid style gown with a sweetheart neckline." It was also "adorned with beaded lace embellishments featuring a ruched bodice that draped asymmetrically at the waist and a beaded motif accented the side front and back." I won't get into what her veil and bouquet looked like, or what the others in the wedding party wore.
I'm 23 and female, but I just don't get it. Why, Gene, do we have to print this?
Gene Weingarten: You have to print it because you work for fearful, unimaginative people who dare not take responsibility for change. So things are done as they always have been.
Also, it is essential to beat out of you any desire for creativity or edge. Resist it; this job will pass.
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W: I am embarrassed by GWB and his administration and how he has represented our country. However, I believe in having respect for the Office of the President of the United States and will not support (with my money) a movie that is so disrespectful to a President who is still in office. I hope I am not alone in this belief.
Gene Weingarten: You know, the rib and I were discussing this fact aftward; ultimately, this is a sympathetic portrayal. He is painted as an abject failure, but you feel sorry for him.
Still a lousy movie.
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Pronunciati, ON: If you watch a lot of sports on TV, you hear about a team's "resiliency," which drives me bat-poop because you say the same thing by using the word "resilience."
Also, maybe you can help me out. I have maintained for years that "awake" is an adjective, not a verb. A person is "awake," but he/she does not "awake" in the morning. Am I wrong?
Gene Weingarten: I think you might be wrong about awake.
I never understood discussing a pitcher's "repertory." They mean his repertoire, no?
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Not a Native: I figure you'll know the answer to this, or at least feign something interesting.
Why is there no J Street?
Gene Weingarten: It is not because Pierre L'enfant hated John Jay. That had long been the rumor, and it was a fine one, if completely unsupported by fact.
It's that handwritten I's and J's were nearly indistinguishable back then. People feared confusion. Apparently Thomas Jefferson even engraved many of his personal objets "T. I."
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DC: Do you know anyone who doesn't say "man-aise"? I don't. But then again...why do we say mayo, but not mayonaisse? I don't really like mayonaisse, so this is not so much of an issue for me. I also don't like Merkel Whip.
Gene Weingarten: Okay, prepare for a shock to your system:
The reason people say "mayo" is that the only correct pronunciation is "mayo-naise" and you and your elision-drunk friends are all mispronouncing it.
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Wait a second: The dictionary says a lot of the "mispronunciations" listed in your poll are valid pronunciations.
Now see here, buddy, you don't get to decide over the dictionary what constitutes a misuse of English just because you dislike some variants.
And don't argue that it's the matter of a liberal dictionary bending to to the whims of the rabble--some of these words have always had those pronunciation variants, and some of the ones you list as "misuse" are the primary variant.
And don't say it's about hewing to a word's spelling, because I bet you look down on people who pronounce the "t" in "often."
Gene Weingarten: The reason I didn't include off-ten is that the dictionary -- driven by flagrant mispronouncers -- has begun to list that godawful variant.
Where else in this list do you find the same thing? I tried to avoid it. I require examples. You all are deputized.
Gene Weingarten: Aaargh. I see "folage," which is illiterate, is now not illiterate.
Any others? I have tried most.
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Re: Language Evolution argument: Language DOES evolve. There is a reason we don't all walk around talking about "al-oo-min-ee-um" soda cans or saying "thee" or speaking in German. The notion that there are rules to enforce is only a matter of cleaning things up, to streamline communication. The people who insist upon rules of grammar and pronunciation are not elitist, though they wish they were. To be an elite you have to have a reason to claim a something is better than another and argue it validly. You have to know why you like things. Opera is better than NASCAR because it relies on emotion and aesthetics and nuance, whereas NASCAR does not. The same cannot be said for feeling "mirror" is better than "meer" because "it's the correct pronunciation." They're entrenched reactionaries. They're snobs, but they don't know why. Language changes, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. Not even if you're French, who have an academy just for deciding the correct things about languages. The rules of language came after people decided something worked and we developed a linguistic taxonomy for them, not the other way around.
Gene Weingarten: I agree with all of this. But what is depressing is that so many things evolve due to ignorance.
Many dictionaries now list "infer" as a synonym for "imply," rather than its opposite. This is because of decades of ignorant misuse. Sorry, but I don't feel like celebrating this.
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Pat the Perfect, ME: Dear Wedding Reporter:
YOU HAVE A JOB IN JOURNALISM! It's a rare thing these days.
Gene Weingarten: Sigh. A girl weighs in.
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Drug, AD: Gene--Have you seen the commercials for this medication called "Abilify"? I wonder if I'm the only person out there who thinks this sounds like a word that George W. Bush coined to describe one of his policies: "By ousting Saddam Hussein, we will abilify the Iraqis to democrafy themselves." "No Child Left Behind will abilify our kids to be taught gooder English."
Gene Weingarten: That reminds me: What is "salsify" all about? That sure doesn't sound like a foodstuff.
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Greater Green Bay, Wis.: RE: Virginia wedding ... I remember reading years ago about a wedding announcement submitted by a groom's mother that went on for several paragraphs about the particular gray in his tuxedo, his silk tie, the make of the buttons and provenance of the cufflinks he wore...and ended with "The bride wore the usual white."
Gene Weingarten: Hahahahaha.
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Elision City: Are you trying to piss off as many of us as possible? Is this some evil prank for the purpose of an upcoming column?
Gene Weingarten: I acknowledge the obnoxiousness of my stance.
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J Street: The explanation of I and J being too similar has always made sense to me. However, why is "Eye Street" commonly used when they don't need to distinguish it from a "Jay Street"?
Gene Weingarten: Because i looks like one.
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Houston Texas: Re foot/hand confusion: I also tried the do the same thing with my left hand and left foot (I am right-handed) with the same result. However, when I use the opposite hand/foot combo, I could do it. Weird.
Gene Weingarten: I shall ask the memory expert about this, too.
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Southerner in Boston: What's your position on "might could"? This is a usage that puzzled my Bostonian wife no end when we first started dating, but I have now got not only her but her sister saying it.
Personally, I think it's a fine bit of phrasing, and anyone who thinks otherwise can bite me.
Gene Weingarten: I first encountered this 15 years ago when writing a big story about Clinton's father. I reached the key interview, a guy in Texas, I believe, who had witnessed the accident that took the dad's life.
He said, as i heard it "I might've could've saved him."
Someone on the copy desk, from the same region, caught it, and persuaded me that I must've gotten the quote wrong. That "might could've" was a very strong regionalism.
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Baltimore:"Many dictionaries now list "infer" as a synonym for "imply," rather than its opposite. This is because of decades of ignorant misuse. Sorry, but I don't feel like celebrating this."
First of all, yuck. I can't believe that dictionaries are doing such a thing.
Second of all, "infer" and "imply" aren't "opposites," exactly, but of course your point is well-taken.
Lastly, language and meaning shifts aren't to be celebrated, nor are they necessarily to be disparaged. They just ARE. They change all the time - always have, always will.
Gene Weingarten: Right, but not all emerge from flagrant misuse and ignorance.
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J St, D.C.: You had an article a while back on the Department of Hoaxes at Commerce, I think? In this article, I seem to recall that Ms. Hoax Boss said that there was no J St. because Corcoran ran around moving all the street signs in the middle of the night so that he could name a street after himself. When the sun rose, he was holding the J St. sign and tossed it in the river. Not true?
Gene Weingarten: No, I made that up. The entire column was made up, for April Fool's day.
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Often - With a T: I guess you call that thing you get on your birthday a "giff".
What a dope.
Gene Weingarten: So you say "lis-ten," too, eh?
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Will you: watch the world series?
Gene Weingarten: No.
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Pat the Perfect, ME: For some reason, those silly dictionaries accept the pronunciation "di-sect" for "dissect," when obviously the prefix is dis- and the word breaks into syllables as dis-sect.
I guess it has to do with the fact that 99 percent of people pronounce it disect, as in bisect. I would venture that none of them ever thought about it. I always say dis-sect, but just to be ptheppy. It's not as if I think they're all illiterates.
Gene Weingarten: And the great Obama pronounces divisive with the middle syllable rhyme with "miss." Can someone check and confirm this is wrong?
Should sound like divide, right? Not division?
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Noo Yawkism: So, Gene, do you know what "from hunger" means?
Gene Weingarten: I do. And no one else out there from elsewhere does, right?
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College Park: On this dumb new show on NBC, "Kath and Kim," which isn't funny, Molly Shannon, who in real life is 44 years old, is cast as the mother of a character played by Selma Blair--who in real life is 36 years old. Selma Blair is absolutely beautiful, and hot, but, well, she looks like a woman in her mid 30s, and Molly, who is attractive, looks, well, like a woman in her early 40s. They do not look in any way like a mother and daughter. They look like sisters or suburban next-door-neighbors. What is wrong with the eyesight of the show's producers and NBC morons? It's just dumb.
Gene Weingarten: In "W," Josh Brolin plays "W" at the age of 57, and also at the age of 19. It really, really doesn't work.
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Mispronounciation: I marked February as one of the most commonly mispronounced words, although I think your description is incorrect - I hear Febyoo-ery far more often than Feboo-ery, and have been known to use it myself on occasion, though I know better.
Gene Weingarten: Again, I didn't use that one because the egregious dictionaries now say Feb-YOU-erry is fine.
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Del Ray, VA: So - I asked this a few months ago - and I'm not sure if you covered it already. If you did - please post again and just give me the answer - Please!!!
I read/overheard/saw something about women should sleep at night without underwear (in fact my friend's kids - a boy and a girl - wear PJ's - but no underwear to bed).
I've always worn both my underwear and pj's - and for all you people who talk about how great it is to sleep naked - I get cold. Really cold - I need the clothes, my sheets and my down blanket.
At this point (37) this isn't something I'm comfortable asking either my doctor or any of my friends - so you are the last resort!
If it is "unhealthy" to wear underwear 23 1/2 hours a day - then frankly I must be used to it becuase I haven't had one of those problems in many, many, years.
THANKS!
Gene Weingarten: I seem to remember that the discussion focused on sleeping in cotton undies (good) versus man-made fabrics (bad). Do I misremember?
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Somewhere: I have not told my husband that I have cheated on him, more than once, over the course of our marriage (seven years this June). In many ways, we do have a loving relationship, but in the last three years, our sex life has been pushed way back on the list of priorities. I feel like I have tried initiate way more than he ever does, and have talked about getting couples' counseling. Still, I feel tremendous guilt about the sexual encounters I have had with other men, and I think if I do tell him he will leave me. I understand why he would. These were not emotional relationships with other men, and I remain very much in love with my husband, I want our marriage to work. We have no kids yet, but have been thinking about it.
So, the only friends I have spoken to about this say that I have to tell him, and I imagine you and the rest of the chatters would agree. I don't know how to do this, how to change the entire course of our lives here, and knowing that I am so much responsible for it all, I'm terrified.
If it matters, it has been three different men that I have been with for short-lived trysts. I fully believe that I would never do this again, but I cannot expect anyone else to believe me. Is there any way to salvage this relationship?
Gene Weingarten: I am not even going to try to answer this. I just don't know how I feel about it.
I will put it out to the group.
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Memory expert: I've always wanted to talk to a person like this. Here's the reason: I was 7 when President Kennedy was assassinated, and the reason that I remember the days of that week so clearly is that my father died a few days beforehand. In my very clear, distinct memory, their funerals were held on the same day. Because children often weren't taken to funerals in those days, my brothers and I stayed at home -- watched over by an aunt. Again, very clearly, I remember watching the president's funeral procession with my aunt while all the others were gone.
That memory has stayed with me my entire life, and I talked about it with my mother recently. "That's interesting," my mother said, "because it's not what happened." Evidently, their funerals were held two days apart. So how do I account for this? The realization that my memory was so wrong was shocking, and I can't account for it.
I don't know why you're interviewing him, but if it's on a similar track, I'm looking forward to the story.
Gene Weingarten: This doesn't surprise me. You are conflating two enormous events in your life that happened nearly simultaneously.
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Re: Gene Weingarten: I agree with all of this. But what is depressing is that so many things evolve due to ignorance. : Me again.
But ignorance is fine. Language is an ad hoc system of communication. New words pop up all the time. Meanings change. Sometimes they flip. And you, for the most part, will still be able to know what someone is talking about.
Why don't we celebrate this? Flexibility? Inventiveness? Creativity? You may call it ignorance and mistakes, but I know the rules. I was an English major, I work as an editor. I correct mistakes because I'm paid to. But spoken language is wonderful and beautiful when it is fast and jarring and inventive and combative.
I know I should get off on being right. I usually do, but not about this. For me, it is a sosoome, or however you spell it.
Gene Weingarten: Sosumi.
Maybe that word gets in the dic in about 20 years. I think I might have coined it.
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Regionalism?: I've heard "on tomorrow" from a couple of people in Louisiana. As in, "I'll have that report for you on tomorrow" instead of simply "tomorrow."
Also, from Kentuckians, I've heard, "Would you mind to do that for me?" instead of "Would you mind doing that for me?"
Regional or just wrong?
Gene Weingarten: Not sure.
My friend Tim Belknap uses "meant" and "supposed to" interchangably. As in, "Crud, I was meant to stop at the store before going home."
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Undies at night: Better not to. Pajamas are okay, because they are loose. Cotton is better than man-made.
Gene Weingarten: Okay.
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Springfield, VA: Two comments...first, you would be surprised how many people actually say "conversate". It drives me up a wall and as I type this, even my spellchecker catches it !
Also, I used to say mayo...wrong all the time. Until I saw An Officer and a Gentleman and I will NEVER get the sound of "MAYO NAISSE" out of my head, as screamed by Louis Gossett Jr to Richard Gere. It always helps me remember how to pronounce it correctly.
Gene Weingarten: Couple of people have mentioned this scene. I don't remember it.
Boy, I hated that movie.
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Knoxville, Tenn.: Gene,
This game is ever-so-addictive. My best score so far is 3.89.
I'm not sure what would make someone better or worse at the game, though I'm finding that I do better with practice.
Gene Weingarten: I love this game. I got a 3.4. I keep screwing up on the centerpoint of the triangle.
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Re Somewhere: You need to speak to a therapist first, to figure out whether you should even stay in your marriage. You can't be sure you won't cheat again, and then if you have told him about the first three times and sworn not to do it again, your marriage will be toast. If you decide to stay and work on it, you work with your therapist to figure out whether to tell him. I would be devastated if my husband had cheated, even for the reasons you describe, and I am a great believer in honesty. I'm just not sure that you talk to him first about it.
Gene Weingarten: Okay.
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re: affairs: I think you have to ask whether telling him does anything other than make him feel bad and lessen the burden of your guilt. If that's the only reason to tell him, don't. I do think you should start going to counseling to find out what is really causing you to have affairs instead of trying to fix whatever is going on in your marriage. And, yeah, something is wrong with your marriage. It's either fixable or it isn't. Counseling will help you figure out which is the case.
Gene Weingarten: A similar thought. Thank you.
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Poorly Verb, AL: Ha! I'll tell you what really crisps my quesadillas: "hone in on." I hear it all the time now. I hear it on NPR, where I always assumed that the hosts and reporters have some education. My mistake. It's "home," people! "Home!" HOME in on. Like a homing pigeon, for goodness' sake. A honing pigeon? That would be something to see!
Perhaps I need more caffeine in my diet.
Gene Weingarten: Indeed.
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Herndon, Va.: How about crayon as crown? I hate that one! (and for the record, I'm one of the few that said it bothers me a lot, and I am completely right)
Gene Weingarten: Tom the Butcher, man of lost syllables, pronounces it "cran."
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Columbus, Ohio: When did people start using "went missing"? Why can't they just say the person 'disappeared'?
Gene Weingarten: Oooh, that is a MAJOR bugaboo of The Rib.
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Alexandria, VA: For the cheating wife: yes, it is possible for a marriage to recover from infidelity and become stronger than ever, but it's hard. (It took several years in my case)
I would find a good marriage couselor, and meet with him/her alone to decide the best way to share the truth.
You can't get away with not telling the truth at this point - this is not some minor slip. At some level you know full well that if you don't get help, you are going to do it again and again, until you get caught. Better to try and tackle the problems directly than subject your husband to that.
And whatever you do, DON"T have kids. Whatever strains are already in the marriage, kids make worse. Too many people think otherwise.
Gene Weingarten: Okay.
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Capitol Hill: Gene, I saw you and the Rib at metro center on Saturday night. Let me be the latest to say nice job, and, how in the hell did you swing that?
Gene Weingarten: I don't know. I have never figured it out.
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Cheatin' Somewhere: Don't tell your husband. Just don't.
You should feel like a zit on a turd for cheating on him. And that guilt is what you get to live with for cheating on him. Don't foist this information on him to alleviate your guilt a bit by coming clean. His trust in you (and likely women in general) will be shattered. His view of you, his marriage and your sex life will be forever tarnished. Live with your guilt and keep it to yourself.
And finally, why don't you think you will do it again? It seems that something is missing in your relationship and that you simply require that something. I would definitely try and fix that something prior to having kids because most serial cheaters do get caught and the only thing worse than dumping your guilt on this man and basically forcing him to dump your cheating behind is to be caught cheating by this man and basically forcing him to dump your cheating behind when there is now a kid involved.
Gene Weingarten: Also, okay.
Thank you all for trying here.
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For Somewhere: Deal with it now, please.
I had three short affairs over many years for much the same reasons you describe--saying it was just physical and I had no intention to leave my husband.
The fourth one, though it started the same way, ended up being the catalyst for my leaving my husband. I spent 8 years with that man in what was in many ways an unfulfilling relationship to justify my awful behavior. I felt horribly guilty and it took me years to forgive myself.
I am now happy in a second marriage, and I guess that bumpy road is what it took me to get here, but I am not proud of what I did to my first husband in my self-delusion.
Gene Weingarten: I'm liking the variation.
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Gore-nischt: Having read your chats for years, I noticed something about all the Yiddish words that come up. New York Yiddish is EXACTLY like German with a very, very thick Viennese accent. There are some exceptions, notably in very common words. But really, it's astounding. I myself life in Vienna, Austria and looked it up-- apparently, everyone who lives here already knew that. Does EVERYONE know this??? Have you ever been to Vienna? You ort to.
Gene Weingarten: I've always felt yiddish sounds like German as uttered by someone with severe cramps.
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Gotcha, AK: Yesterday's Doonesbury, with Zonker's nephew ducking his prof's question, is an all time great. How could it not be a CPOW? I imagine anyone already out of the education system who read it was filled with envy with the realization that Ms Palin has added a new weapon to the student's arsenal of avoidance.
washingtonpost.com: Doonesbury, ( Oct. 20)
Gene Weingarten: It was fine. Not a CPOW.
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Arlington: Gene --
Love the chats. Not to confuse you with Michael Dirda, but if you're interested in issues of pronunciation and word meaning, you should check out "The Mother Tongue," by Bill Bryson. It's basically an exploration of what English is, and how it came to be, in Bryson's own inimitable way. I love reading it, because I learn at least one new fact on every page. As I recall, there is a great chapter on how word meaning shifts over time, due to usage -- all of which suggests your concern over "infer vs. imply" (which I share) is completely futile.
All the best!
Gene Weingarten: I love Bryson and haven't read this yet. Will.
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In li, NE: One regionalism that especially drives me nuts is New Yorkers standing "on line." And the main thing that bugs me about it is that NOBODY says that outside the Tri-State Area, but you Eastern Media Elites are way overrepresented in the national media, so it's crammed down our throats.
Gene Weingarten: I am constantly editing my own copy to turn "on line" into "in line." I believe next Sunday's column held this regionalism until the last minute of editing.
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Coc, KY: If, I say if, because we all dread some errant event, the Brady effect and the possibility the pollsters are just wrong, but IF, only IF, Obama wins the sweeping electoral college mandate you predicted, before the August slump, the Palin boomlet and the dramatic economic events of the past 4 weeks, how insufferable do you plan on being?
Gene Weingarten: It will mark the first time in my life that I have presciently and correctly predicted a major political event.
Sadly, I am never going to take full credit because I did not anicipate the meltdown, and without it, I think these things would be much closer now. What I do feel I was right about, earlier than anyone else, was calling the unmitigated disaster of the Palin choice. Within two hours of the leak of her name, while others were mulling her "compelling personal narrative," The Gene Pool asked "Sarah Palin -- Complete Disaster or Monstrous Gaffe?" A couple days later, as the Sarah boomlet swelled, The Gene Pool asked "Sarah Problem Here?"
Okay, so, yeah. There will be some inappropriate backpatting on this end.
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US of A: Gene, I didn't get a chance to chat last week due to work (the horror!) but I just wanted to take this opportunity to thank you (and fling my hot panties at you). Last week you called out McCain on his comment and his general distaste towards Arabs. It's heartening to see that most people aren't willing to put up with this sort of indirect racism. So thanks again!
Gene Weingarten: And Colin Powell called him out on the Muslim thing! What's wrong with being a Muslim?
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Arlington: I am less irritated by pronunciations that elide a word or syllable (which is perfectly normal for words, and how they change, a la bedlam from Bethleham) than I am by mispronunciations that show someone is simply not bothering to read carefully and thus transposing or adding letters.
One of my students used to talk about "anticdotes," which I assume is a story told really quickly.
Gene Weingarten: I once worked in a small newspaper office where one of the copy editors insisted that stories have "antidotes." As in, little complete narratives within the story.
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Gene Weingarten: Okay, I copy us down.
Thank y'all. I will be updating through the week. I hope the reluctantly cheatin' lady has gotten some helful advice.
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Yiddish: I thought I heard it was combination of German and phlegm.
Gene Weingarten: German and MORE phlegm.
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UPDATED 10.22.08
Gene Weingarten: We start today with this great email from Katharine Liu --
Two years ago, I was a grad student at The Shakespeare Institute, and we put on a student production of "Othello". The word "student" is important here: most of us were academics, not actors, and the show was an extracurricular activity on the level of pick-up soccer.
Someone must have thought the venue made it important, because today I found a professor's review in the highly respected "Shakespeare Bulletin." What makes this review special is that, despite a few lines about the other characters, this guy essentially based an ENTIRE scholarly article on the fact that Kelly, the hot 20-something actress who played Desdemona, was clearly wearing a THONG beneath her costume. The view of the thong began with Desdemona's entrance, continued when she addressed her father, and apparently crescendoed when she turned away from the audience. This all took no more than 30 seconds of a two-hour play.
What's hilarious is how the reviewer tries to place his ordinary horndoggery under the auspices of scholarly interest. He speculates that "The Thong" represents a deliberate attempt to complicate Desdemona's "performed sensuality/virtuosity", or to pose "problematic, perhaps unanswerable" questions about 21st century productions of "Othello", or to demand "a level of audience negotiation between sheer distraction and informed, if problematic, directorial concept."
Only at the end of the article does he admit that, after interviewing both the director and the actress, he found out that the visible thong represented nothing more than an accidental wardrobe-transparency malfunction.
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Gene Weingarten: I am grateful to Henry Chen for this, which he aptly labels "a personification of willful stupidity."
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BBFL: I thought you might be interested to know that I presently have only one nipple. There was a "nipple incident" during my breast reduction surgery last Monday. The left one turned out great. The right one is good, except for the fact the nipple is not technically attached to my body.
You know what makes me the happiest, Gene? When I am at the computer, or at a table eating dinner, it is now completely possible to spill food on the napkin that polite society has deemed the lap the appropriate place for those things. I can't tell you how many shirts have food spillage where my "fun bags" used to be. I can look down and see my feet. I can go jogging (when fully reattached and recovered, obviously) and not have to wear Oprah's Yentl Bra. It uses the philosophy that keeping the breasts as close to the body as possible will prevent the effects of time in joggers. It binds
A few last words. You know the line in the movie "Knocked Up" where Seth Rogan says that having a breast reduction is like slapping god in the face? I could go on and on with an expletive-laden response, but I will say this -- you (men) try carrying 20 pounds around your necks all day, every day and night for 40 years on the off chance you might get sex. Gene, please tell me men wouldn't actually do that. They may be horny, but I think laziness trumps horniness in this situation. Even if the answer is yes, I haven't had sex in 10 years, so it's about time I chopped them off like I should have done 15 years ago. They sure weren't doing me any good.
And the writer of the movie, I believe it was Judd Apatow, should seriously rethink his version of funny. I happened to recently get cash to enable me to have the surgery, but every week you can see examples of women who suffer from this very affliction right before they say, "MOVE THAT BUS!" I swear one woman was about to give herself a concusssion and broken kneecaps in one jump.
I will advise you of the nipple situation next Monday or Tuesday. I have pictures (for purely scientific purposes, let me assure you) if you would like to see them. I'll take that as a no.
Gene Weingarten: I am speechless. About all of it, but especially the temporarily missing right nipple. In a later e-mail, this woman informs us that the doctor has told her it will take another couple of weeks before the nipple will be reattached.
Speechless. Thank you for sharing and please keep us abreast of further developments.
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Sister's question: So last night I get a call from my sister with the following question. How wide is your typical poo? Carrot, banana or zucchini in width? This is something she and her husband had been discussing and felt only really comfortable asking me. Well I agreed with my sister (bananna) but that could be biological so could you open this question to all of your readers? That would give a better cross section of the population
Gene Weingarten: This reminds me of the medical tomes I read when researching my hypochondria book; some include a poop diameter index, and I recall that "pencil thin" is a variety of stool one wishes not to have. Persistent pencil diameter stool can be a sign of colon cancer.
I think, though, that the dimensions and topology of poop varies with many different factors. I personally have experienced the banana, the summer squash, the Twizzler and even, rarely, the pomegranate.
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Anonymous: from this AM WTOP news.
Deputies found numerous bottles and boxes of alcohol at the house. A 17-year-old girl and a 16-year-old boy were suffering side effects from consuming alcohol and were taken to local hospitals as a precaution.
I thought the side effects were the next day...
Gene Weingarten: Good point.
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Onst, AR: Gene,
My sister in law sent me this story regarding a good friend of hers. Might provide a good InstaPoll question about what the chatters would do in the same situation.
"As part of her job, she frequently travels within the region to give presentations to various groups. Recently, she was asked to drive to a city about an hour and a half from home to give a 45 minute presentation on a Saturday. After the presentation, she would be done for the day so she brought along her husband and son, thinking they could have lunch together and maybe see a movie--make a day of it. And, as a bonus, she could drive the company car and not have to pay for gas.
She dropped husband and son off at a nearby mall and went to the hotel where she would be giving her presentation. She told them she would meet them back at the same entrance in an hour or so.
The presentation went smoothly and as she was gathering her things she realized she should probably make a stop in the ladies room before she left for the mall. While in the restroom, she somehow managed to drop the car key in the toilet. This is the key to the company car, mind you.
She's sitting there, contemplating her options. She realizes almost immediately that the only option is reaching in for it. After all, it's the key to the company car, she's stranded an hour and a half from home, not to mention her husband and son stuck at the mall waiting for her, and her cell phone is locked inside the company car because she never brings it in during presentations. So even though it's icky-, she takes a deep breath, stands up and...the toilet is an automatic flusher and the key is gone."
Gene Weingarten: I was wondering where this was going. Good end, as it were.
Her dilemma, however, was a no-brainer; in my Hypochondria book, my dentist recounted a patient who had to face a more difficult decision. He had accidentally swallowed his bridgework. His choice was to pay a couple thousand dollars for new bridgework, or to wait until he passed it naturally, to clean it up as best he could, and then pop it back in his mouth.
Frugality prevailed.
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Next Week's Chat
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LOAD-DATE: October 22, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 21, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 5395 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Anne E. Kornblut was online live Tuesday, Oct. 21 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Anne E. Kornblut: Hi everyone -- sorry to disappoint, but Shailagh had something come up, so I'll be filling in today. What's going on?
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Southern Maryland: Well, I guess I now have a name for myself -- I'm a "Powell Republican." The reasons he cited for endorsing Sen. Obama match mine. I simply no longer can associate myself with this party (although Mr. Powell did not go that far -- I'll be changing my status to independent). The party is marginalizing itself. Don't Republican leaders recognize they are alienating many like me -- not an extreme conservative in terms of religion, but conservative in terms of government? After the Bush years with their incredible spending, I have had enough. I can't take talking heads calling some states "pro American" and calling citizens' patriotism into question. Enough. Goodbye.
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for bringing up this topic -- I think it's one on a lot of people's minds after Powell's very provocative appearance over the weekend. What I found so interesting wasn't as much his endorsement of Obama (which many saw coming) but the criticisms of the party that you point out. That's not something I've heard the conservatives who are attacking him for endorsing Obama because of race address.
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Seattle, Wash.: Great to have you, Anne.
Sorry to hear Obama needing to leave the campaign to visit his Grandmother in Hawaii. It's the right thing to do, but is he sacrificing one of the Toss-up States to make this trip?
Anne E. Kornblut: My understanding is that he was supposed to be visiting Iowa and another midwestern state over the course of Friday and Saturday -- I'm not sure which, and I'm not entirely positive that's right, so don't hold me to it -- but that he will be able to send surrogates instead. He is, however, staying on the road to visit Virginia and Indiana before he goes -- much "redder" states. It looks to me like they're trying to give him a window to visit his grandmother that does not cut too far into their campaigning time, which they consider their most precious asset.
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Virginia polling: I've lived in northern Virginia almost my whole life, so it's absolutely stunning to see the polls now putting Virginia in the solidly blue column. Really?! How is this possible? Don't get me wrong, I'm really excited, but I worry that it's misleading and there's some systemic bias or the polls are just missing something. Is it really possible that Obama is that far ahead in my home state?
washingtonpost.com: Virginia: The New Battleground (washingtonpost.com)
Anne E. Kornblut: Aha, so you don't live in the real Virginia? (A joke -- a reference to a McCain campaign spokeswoman's assertion last weekend that northern Va. isn't the real part of the state). Look, states can shift over time, and Virginia has been trending more Democratic -- not just this year but in earlier, state elections. I'm not a big fan of labeling states "red" or "blue" because it leaves the impression that they are immutable. That aside, it does look as if Obama has made tremendous inroads there, and his campaign describes it as one of their greatest efforts and goals, one where they've devoted a lot of resources. So my tendency is to say that, yes, it is leaning much more "blue" -- with the caveat that we won't know anything for sure until 14 days from now.
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Rockville, Md.: While the press has been digging into Palin's records of College, Wasilla, and etc., why haven't they gone after Obama's record in college? Has it been proven he was actually born in Hawaii? I still think he was born in Kenya.
Anne E. Kornblut: It has been proven, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Obama was born in Hawaii. He was not born in Kenya. I am going to try to post here a link to fact check.org, which sent a reporter to the Obama campaign headquarters to examine the birth certificate and certify that it is real; he was, I repeat, born in Hawaii.
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Anne E. Kornblut: Here is a link to the fact.check.org site --- http://www.factcheck.org/election-2008/born_in_the_usa.html. If I am doing this incorrectly, you can also go straight to their site.
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Re: Pennsylvania: Anne: If reports are correct that the McCain camp is giving up on Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, he now has to win Pennsylvania to have any chance. Why do they think they have a chance there? Most polls show them way behind.
Anne E. Kornblut: The McCain campaign disputes that they are giving up in those states, and it appears that McCain will be campaigning in Colorado later in the week. But you are correct -- it would be quite hard for them to bank on Pennsylvania as their salvation, judging from the state polls, which have McCain behind.
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Anonymous: The polls seem to be all over the place. The Post has Obama up by a comfy 9 points, while others have it only 2, which is a statistical tie. What's the real sense on the part of the campaigns as to where the election now stands?
Anne E. Kornblut: I have a better handle on the Obama campaign, but let me give this a shot. On the Obama end, their focus, pretty much relentlessly, is on the state-by-state polls and where that leaves them in the electoral college (the goal being to get to 270 electoral college votes). The McCain campaign is, naturally, focused on the same; we've heard McCain also say that he thinks he is about 6 points behind nationally, even though, as you point out, there are other polls that are more generous to him. If you factor in margin of error, a "comfy" lead can appear less so -- it seems to me both campaigns believe it is at about 5 points nationally. But again, they care much less about than how they are doing in getting to 270.
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Obama WAS born in Hawaii...:... but looks like McCain was born in Panama!
McCain's Canal Zone Birth Prompts Queries About Whether That Rules Him Out ( The New York Times, Feb. 28)
Anne E. Kornblut: He was, indeed -- but I think it is pretty well resolved that because that was a US territory, there is no question whether he can legitimately run for/be president. Still, pretty neat that the two nominees are from off the mainland, right?
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washingtonpost.com: FactCheck.org
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Silver Spring, Md.: I was sorry to hear of Sen. Obama's grandmother's illness. But I was confused by the statement about her from his campaign: "Along with his mother and his grandfather, she raised him in Hawaii from the time he was born until the moment he left for college." I thought his grandparents lived in Kansas, didn't they? And didn't he live there also, as well as in Indonesia for a brief time as a child?
Anne E. Kornblut: Actually, Obama's grandparents were from Kansas, but eventually moved to Hawaii, and that's where he was born and raised -- although you are right that for a period of time in the middle there he also lived in Indonesia with his mom, before moving back to be raised by his grandparents in Hawaii.
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New York: Anne, Hillary Clinton has been energetically campaigning for Obama, so she'll probably have a prominent role in an Obama administration. So what do you think has been discussed? I know Obama says she'll have a big role in health care policy, but in what way? Thanks.
Anne E. Kornblut: The Clinton folks are being exceptionally mum on this point. My sense is that nothing has been decided -- that she is doing her part to get him elected now, and will obviously have a powerful political base of her own going forward, but that we'll have to wait and see what she does with it. In terms of health care, should Sen. Kennedy recover enough to go back to the Senate, he would be the natural leader on it; Clinton would almost certainly play a role, too. But we don't know yet what his health status will be come January.
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Bethesda, Md.: What effect will early voting have on this election? I voted a week ago. Will there be alot more early voting this year then in past years?
Anne E. Kornblut: It sure appears that way. A number of states have early voting in place, which helps on a number of fronts -- more people can get it out of the way earlier, reducing lines on Nov. 4; and activists can be freed to go do their work getting other people to the polls that day. But the count will not actually happen until Nov. 4.
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Mystified in Minnesota: Please explain how some states can have "early" voting? Is this another way to say "absentee" or is there really a window during which people can vote? Why does this happen?
Anne E. Kornblut: It's up to the states -- and yes, it is separate from absentee voting (which in some places requires you to prove that you can't be there on election day and happens by mail). In some places, right now, you can go vote as if it were election day. The idea, largely, is to reduce confusion on Nov. 4, and to give people with odd work schedules a chance to participate in the process, rather than restricting it to people who can make it on that day.
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Boston, Mass.: Thanks for taking my question. Is it just me, or does Sarah Palin seem to have gone off on her own? I get the feeling that the McCain campaign is not coordinating at all with her and that her goal is to help build her own political future, with no consideration of how she is impacting his campaign.(imho, by next year at this time we will all be saying Sarah who?)
Anne E. Kornblut: My colleague John Dickerson over at Slate wrote a nice column last night about the number of ways that Gov. Palin has differed from McCain on various things -- such as dropping out of Michigan -- and what that might mean. To their credit, she did say from the outset that she would disagree with him occaionally (she said in that first Charlie Gibson interview that she was still working on him when it came to drilling in ANWR). But it would not be surprising to discover that Palin -- who is, after all, only 44 -- is also keeping an eye on her own political future. If they were to lose, she would have a strong claim as the leader of the Republican party, having been on the ticket this year, and it wouldn't be shocking to see her run on her own in 2012.
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Richmond, Va.: Do you think that this is a hard election to poll because of all the new voters? There seems to be a big number difference in polls betwee registered and likely voters.
Anne E. Kornblut: With the caveat here that I'm no polling expert, I am told that the question of new voters remains a thorny one. At this stage of the game, "likely voters" are the ones that we tend to pay attention to -- and you're right, those polls show a tighter race, generally. But it is not always clear how much they take into account new voters, who tend to be less reliable about actually getting up and voting on election day. It will be interesting to see if what happened in the Iowa caucuses (where Obama motivated a lot of young people to actually caucus, despite predictions they'd flake out as they had for Howard Dean four years earlier) can translate in some way on Nov. 4.
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washingtonpost.com: Palin's Campaign vs. McCain's/ ( Slate, Oct. 20)
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Alexandria, Va.: Based on the signs in my neighborhood, the McCain supporters live on the corners and the Obama supporters live in the middle. Is it the same in your neighborhood?
Anne E. Kornblut: How interesting. But do we know which plumbing service each of them uses?
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Stone Harbor: Where is the front page story on Biden's latest gaffe?
washingtonpost.com: Biden Warns World Will 'Test' Obama, Prompting McCain Response ( The Trail, Oct. 20)
Anne E. Kornblut: As you know (or maybe not?) reporters don't get to decide what stories run where. But we did have the story about the "international crisis" comment in the paper, and we'll post the link here.
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New York: Anne, I've been baffled as to McCain's strategy for attacting swing voters, who are usually moderates. It seems for months he's been appealing to the base, especially with the Palin pick. But these folks probably would have voted for him anyway, if not enthusiastically. So my question is, why all the focus on the base?
Anne E. Kornblut: This is a great question, and I suspect when all the after-action reports on the campaigns are conducted, this will be one of them. Don't forget -- President Bush had a two-fold strategy in 2004, of appealing to Hispanics and some moderates, but also very heavily turning out his own base. The idea is to drive up your numbers in certain parts of reliable states (think of the map Bush won in 2004) and not worry about the middle. And McCain could win if he just holds onto the Bush states. But the challenge for him is that some of those states (think Iowa) are less conservative than they were four years ago, and may remain, despite the Palin pick, lukewarm about him.
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Washington, D.C.: Hi Anne Thanks for doing these chats! With early voting and increased absentee voting, do you think that there will eventually be a national holiday on election day to provide more people with the opportunity to more conveniently vote?
Anne E. Kornblut: That's an idea that's been tossed around -- along with having it on a Saturday, so people with demanding jobs and travel issues can make sure to vote.
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Albany, N.Y.: If McCain loses, why do you feel that Palin will be the leader of the Republician Party? Being on a ticket that is not successful does not mean you are the leader by default
Anne E. Kornblut: Sorry, I should have been clearer --you are absolutely right, there's nothing that says she would be the leader by default. But she certainly would have a claim to trying to be that -- her huge crowds, her ratings on SNL suggest she has a following -- and if anything, it would be surprising to have her fade away as an afterthought after all the excitement she has generated. But that is different from saying she would assume leadership of the party.
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Claverack, N.Y.: A growing complaint among Republicans I'm hearing is that "McCain can't compete because he took public financing." But my guess is, McCain couldn't possibly have been competitive with Obama if he had forsaken the system, and the money discrepancy would have been even more apparent, generating even more morose headlines for the GOP. Agree?
Anne E. Kornblut: Entirely possible -- and entirely impossible to ever know the answer to. One great storyline coming out of this campaign, regardless of who wins, is what the state of the campaign finance system is and should be, because of how lopsided this race has been.
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Reston, Va.: Hi, Anne. The opportunity to chat with you will absolutely make my day.
Question: Have we ever had a woman secretary of defense? Is that a possible position for Hillary Clinton?
Thanks!
Anne E. Kornblut: Answer: No, we have not. And what an intriguing idea -- Clinton does sit on the Armed Services Committee, and has made military issues a strong focus of her time in the Senate. I haven't heard her name floated by the Obama folks, but it's early yet. Stay tuned.
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Early Voting: If the networks call states based primarily on exit polls and returns, how will early voting affect their ability to call states in a timely matter on November 4th?
Anne E. Kornblut: What a great question. I have no idea, and now I'm curious. Let me find out.
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Arlington, Va.: What Ms. Pfotenhauer is doing is playing on the Northern virginia/Rest of Virginia attitudes that already have been exploited to little effect here. As you can see, I'm from the communist part of the state (according to McCain's brother) and therefore am not part of the Real Virginia, or even the Real America. My family has been here since the 1600s and my great grandfather fought in the Army of Northern Virginia during the Civil War. Is that Real enough for the McCain people? This tactic is divisive and infuriating.
Anne E. Kornblut: I have to say, as a native of Virginia myself, I was a little surprised to hear her go that route -- if only because such a large voting population is now in that part of the state, thus making it a politically dicey thing to say. But I hope the folks in her Oakton neighborhood are being kind to her at the grocery store anyway. It's been a long, exhausting campaign.
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If McCain loses, why do you feel that Palin will be the leader of the Republician Party?: It didn't work for Jack Kemp or even Dan Quayle, let alone William Miller (who parlayed his obscurity into the first "do you recognize me" TV commercial), so why should it work for Palin?
Anne E. Kornblut: And it hasn't worked on the Democratic side, either -- not for Lieberman, or for Edwards. So I have thoroughly debunked my own theory, with your help. Still, I maintain that we will see Gov. Palin as a national political figure again, regardless of the outcome of this election.
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Bethesda, Md.: Reading an article in the Post today I came across a clip from the Constitution describing the requirements to be president. As we all know, you have to older than 35 and born in the U.S. They put in a clause that you have to have lived in the U.S. for 14 years. 14 is a strange number. Do you have any idea how they arrived at that exact number? Were they trying to exclude or include anyone in particular?
Anne E. Kornblut: No clue, but I'm going to post it here and see if anyone else does.
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Tucson, Ariz.: Thanks for taking my question. As an Obama supporter, I'm concerned about his security during a rally that attracts 100,000 people. Can secret service really screen that many people?
Anne E. Kornblut: I've gotten this question a lot -- and the answer is, I'm no security agent, but I do know how hard they work and how sophisticated their thinking is, and it inspires a lot of confidence. (I am knocking on wood as I type this). The agents are often in a position to both screen the press and protect us, when we're traveling with the candidates, and their professionalism is impressive. There have been some troubling reports lately about agents blocking reporters from talking to crowds -- but that's a different matter.
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Washington, D.C.: My sister-in-law and I (both non-obvious minorities)have noticed in our dealings with people from Northern Virginia that when they don't think a minority is present, they'll say racist or intolerant things. Often they use a hushed voice. This observation leads me to believe that whatever Obama is polling in Northern Virgina, the Bradley effect will likely come into play.
I know that by definition predicting the Bradley effect is like trying to hear a tree fall in a forest when no one's not around. However, are there any indications that Northern Virginia will actually be as Democratic as polls say.
Anne E. Kornblut: This is a perpetually unanswerable question (at least not until Nov. 4). And it's a good one. I suspect that people's casual intolerance in private company is not operating in the same part of their brains as choosing a president -- that a lot more seriousness goes into the latter, in a time like this -- I certainly heard borderline-sexist things said about Hillary Clinton as a woman when I was covering her from people who intended to vote for her. And the Obama campaign has been adamant in its insistence that they are not worried about the race factor. But we just don't know.
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Potomac, Md.: Fantastic move by McCain-Palin to double-down on Pennsylvania. There's no early voting in Pennsylvania, so you only have to gear up for Election Day. Run heavy challenges in Democrat precincts to create long lines and make people go home, as keep-out-the-vote works far more efficiently than get-out-the-vote. Combine with Ayers/Wright ads and leaflet droppings, and you steal a big Kerry state and create breathing room. Smart, smart move.
Anne E. Kornblut: And another view...thank you, great observations.
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"Her ratings on SNL": Funniest thing you've ever written. You think Palin's base were the ones watching her on "Saturday Night Live"? I'm guessing it was more likely people like me who hoped to watch her get made a fool of!
Anne E. Kornblut: I'm not saying those people will vote for her!! I'm just saying, if it were me, and I drew that large an audience, I would think that I had a legitimate claim to run for higher office again. And I think everyone should not discount her so quickly. I may be proven wrong. But that's my take.
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Fourteen Years: They were trying to keep anyone who wasn't in the colonies before the start of the Revolution from becoming president. In terms of particular people, maybe Alexander Hamilton?
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you, a really good point.
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Hoboken, N.J.: Would Palin really stay on as governor of Alaska after this election? I would think doing a Fox News Channel show would propel her into the 2012 primaries far more effectively. It also would give her more time with the babies.
Anne E. Kornblut: And be warmer. But what of Todd's Iron Dog race?
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Alexandria, Va.: Isn't the national headquarters of the McCain campaign in "occupied Virginia"?
Anne E. Kornblut: Indeed!
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Monmouth, Ore.: Hello, Ms. Murray. I have read that the McCain camp essentially is conceding the popular vote and going for the electoral vote. If by chance they succeed, what would be the ramifications? Would it finally drive the stake through the Electoral College's heart? Is there any serious move now to get rid of this archaic method of electing a president? Many of us still are fuming about 2000, so if this happened again I fear there would just be wholesale chaos/disgust/maybe worse. Your thoughts? Thanks.
Anne E. Kornblut: I'll not speak for Ms. Murray (she'll be back doing a chat soon, don't worry!) but instead say that I think both campaigns are -- rightly -- focused on winning the electoral college, because that is, simply, the only way to become president. As we saw in 2000, the popular vote is meaningless. A nice number, and one that might give a president a glowing feeling of, well, popularity, but not the way the rules are constructed. There have been attempts to get rid of the rules (did I read somewhere this week that more bills have been introduced in Congress to get rid of the electoral college than any other topic, over time?) but for now, they stand. So I expect to see both campaigns working hard to get to 270, period.
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Austin, Tex.: Early voting started here yesterday. Numbers are apparently huge.
Is is safe to assume that a higher turnout nationwide favors Obama?
Anne E. Kornblut: You know what they say about the word "assume." I'm willing to assume that Obama is doing well in Austin, however. As for the rest of Texas: if Obama is ahead there, McCain has serious problems. But again, we just won't know until they start counting ballots.
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Williamsburg, Va.: Since the last two presidential elections have been close, I've forgotten what "non-close" elections are like in the final days. In 1996, did Dole's campaign really claim that they had a path to 270, and was it realistic? If McCain is relying on winning a state where he's now behind by ten or more, that wouldn't be considered realistic. Do you recall 96 (or 88) in the final days?
Anne E. Kornblut: If my memory serves, it was pretty bleak for Dole at this point in '96. But it hadn't always been so - it had been much closer earlier on.
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New York: For those of us who like to analyze even the most minor development in this campaign to decide whether we should be excited or nervous about our candidate: What is the impact of Obama heading to Hawaii for 36 hours? It takes him off the trail at a crucial time, but also gains him sympathy. Might the Republicans tone down their rhetoric for that time? If so, will that benefit them with voters who think they've been to negative? On the flip side, what does McCain going on Letterman and Palin going on "Saturday Night Live" do for them? It makes that seem a bit more human, but will that help them in the polls?
Anne E. Kornblut: I think the Hawaii trip is an unknown -- great question. It will be harder for the McCain folks to attack him in a personal way on the campaign trail, I would suspect, but not in robocalls and the like. Also, we don't know what kind of coverage the trip itself will generate. As for the TV appearances, of course, you're completely right, the goal is to humanize them. I'm just not sure that either of them was so aloof or remote that they needed to be humanized at this point. You could argue that Letterman was an attempt just to get Dave to stop bashing McCain so constantly.
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Arlington, Va.: I recall from high school history that the natural-born clause in the requirements for the president was aimed at Alexander Hamilton, who was born in Jamaica. Don't know about the 14 years, however, except that it is longer than similar requirements for senators and congressmen.
Anne E. Kornblut: More history! Thank you.
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Bloomington, Ind.: Hello Anne. I heard that you were pulled from covering Sarah Palin's campaign for some reason. Is that true? If so, why?
Anne E. Kornblut: Nope. I cover Obama. I was with Palin for a week, helping out the reporter who does cover her, and had a lovely trip to Alaska. But it is very amusing that there might be rumors of that sort out in Indiana!
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Re: McCain's Strange Moves: I'm certain that the McCain campaign has done polling on how Rev. Wright plays in various parts of the country, and I suspect that reactions out West (Colorado, New Mexico) differ significantly from reactions in the Appalachian region (Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania) and the South (North Carolina and Florida). If that's true, the calculation may be that a racially loaded closing strategy may have a better chance of putting Pennsylvania in play than Colorado, despite what current poll numbers are saying.
Anne E. Kornblut: That's another thought; thank you for sharing it.
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Testing a new President: Not just JFK, but the first World Trade Center bombing occurred less than six weeks after Clinton took office -- reportedly they had another bombing planned if Dole had won and taken office in '97, but scrapped it because he didn't. Then the second World Trade Center bombing occurred less than eight months after Bush 43 took office. Do you think the Republicans want to try to claim this is a good reason to vote for McCain? To me it sounds like capitulating to the terrorists.
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for a reminder of the history; that's a really good point, and I think it's basically what Biden thought he was saying.
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Fletcher, N.C.: I spent three hours working at my church yesterday, across from a voting precinct in western North Carolina. From 2 p.m. to 5 p.m., our parking lot averaged about 50 vehicles from the overflow, and the voting line extended out the doors. After standing in line in Alabama on Nov. 2, 2004, for five hours and watching hundreds of people give up, I have to wonder why anyone ever fought early voting. Yes, we appear to have a lot of reasons for an energized electorate this year, but how much do professionals think these extended voting periods increase voter participation? Watching all these people getting out to vote makes me feel a lot better about our future, regardless of which candidate they're choosing.
Anne E. Kornblut: I am sure someone will crunch the numbers when this is all over and figure out how much of an effect it seemed to have (though I don't know how you could differentiate between increased turnout based on the early voting versus enthusiasm for one candidate or another). But it does seem like a good idea to give people a chance to vote even if they don't have flexible work schedules or easy transportation on the given day of the election.
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Bluffton, S.C.: In previous chats you've complained about Sarah Palin's inaccessability to the press. I understand that -- unlike Joe Biden -- she is now speaking with reporters. Are you still glum?
Anne E. Kornblut: I'm not out covering her, but you can see from the footage that she is talking on the plane now, which is really good -- not just for us whiny reporters, though it is, but also for her. She seems a lot more comfortable now that she's been doing it more often, only begging the question of why they kept her under wraps for so long.
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St. Paul, Minn.: There keep being questions about Senator Clinton, or other high-ranking Senators taking places in an Obama administration. History seems to suggest that almost no sitting senators will be appointed to the cabinet, and very few would want those jobs because they then hitch their wagon to someone else who could lose power. I do expect Daschle and maybe Tim Roemer to be in such a cabinet (knock on wood), but I really think the Hillary talk seems silly, don't you?
Anne E. Kornblut: Who knows? It's a good point -- and you're definitely right about Daschle's being in the mix -- but we'll just have to wait and see. And the same is true should McCain win...
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Toronto, Ontario: It's frightening to see the increasing polarization that some in the GOP seem to want to foster -- you agree with us, or else you are anti-American, you agree with our position or else you are evil and a terrorist. Why is not possible to have a genuine policy disagreement and intelligent debate? Why not rise to the demands of this trying time and attempt to inform, explore and discuss the problems facing the U.S., and come to terms with what damage has been done domestically and globally by the last eight years. Instead, it's all about fear-mongering, lies, and as much as possible, keeping people (who in the U.S. already are deprived of an appreciation of history, global geography etc), even more ignorant?
Anne E. Kornblut: And the view from further north...thank you for this.
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Clifton, Va.: As a still-undecided voter, I am made to feel like an idiot. I may have a preference, but I have not made a decision. Although this delay means I can't vote early, I really don't see the harm in not having decided yet. I plan to see what other news/speeches comes out, as well as reading the platforms on both candidates' Web sites. Am I doing this wrong by being deliberate? Should I be voting more instinctively?
Anne E. Kornblut: Who says it's wrong? I know people think that the choice is so stark there's no way to be "undecided" -- but that is probably true for political junkies, not for people who have other things going on in their lives. Good for you for taking it seriously, and good luck figuring it out.
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Anne E. Kornblut: So many good questions today -- thank you all so, so much for taking the time to participate in the chat, as always. You make it worthwhile going out and reporting! I really appreciate it. See you soon.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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As Fuel Prices Fall, Will Push For Alternatives Lose Steam?
BYLINE: Steven Mufson; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1709 words
Just four months ago, a conference here on electric cars drew four times as many people as expected. District fire marshals ordered some of the crowd to leave, and the atmosphere was more like that of a rock concert than an energy conference. A brief film depicted an electric car owner driving off with a beautiful woman to the strains of "The Power of Love" while her original companion struggles to pay for gasoline. The audience cheered.
One discordant note in the series of enthusiastic speeches came from Bill Reinert, one of the Toyota Prius designers. He cautioned that designing and ramping up production of a new car takes five years.
"If oil goes down to $60 or $70 a barrel and gasoline gets back to $2.50 a gallon, and that very possibly could happen," he said, "will that demand stay the same or will we shift back up?"
It didn't take five years to hit those numbers. One type of oil shock has given way to another. Even more swiftly than the price of oil rose, it has tumbled to the range that seemed far-fetched when Reinert spoke and oil was more than $130 a barrel. Now that drop threatens a wide variety of game-changing plans to find alternatives to oil or ways to drastically reduce U.S. consumption.
"Declining oil prices can give us an artificial and temporary sense that reducing oil consumption and energy consumption is an issue we can put off," said Greg Kats, a managing director of Good Energies, a multibillion-dollar venture capital firm that invests in global clean energy.
The credit crisis is compounding that threat by making it more difficult to finance capital-intensive projects, whether they are new auto assembly lines or solar panels or wind turbines. General Motors has been touting the Chevy Volt as the first mass-marketed, plug-in hybrid vehicle. GM, which has been holding merger talks with Chrysler, believes the project will help justify federal financing. It hopes to deliver the car by the end of 2010.
Tesla Motors, a maker of a handful of pricey electric sports cars, had planned to unveil a cheaper sedan next year. But on Thursday it delayed the new model because of trouble lining up financing. It also said it would close two offices and has replaced its chief executive.
The uncertain future of electric cars points to a sticky aspect of the global oil equation. The price of oil can change rapidly, but responses that would cut petroleum use take time. As oil prices climbed, major automakers including GM, Mitsubishi, Renault-Nissan and Toyota moved ahead with plans to produce plug-in vehicles. But the first of those cars won't be ready for a couple of years. What the price of oil will be then, and what consumers' appetite for plug-in cars will be then, is anybody's guess.
Focusing on Efficiency
Doing something about the amount of gasoline Americans use is essential to defusing future oil shocks. The American motorist is among the most profligate in the world. More than one out of every nine barrels of oil produced worldwide ends up in the gas tanks of cars in the United States. The amount of petroleum burned by U.S. motorists exceeds the entire crude oil output of Saudi Arabia, and that has propped up demand -- and prices.
Yet U.S. cars are among the least fuel efficient in the world. "The U.S. dependence on oil imports is based on waste, not on needs," said Paolo Scaroni, chief executive of Italian oil giant Eni.
Electric cars aren't the only answer. More efficient cars, whether better combustion engines or hybrids like the Prius, may be a cheaper way to achieve big fuel savings.
Some firms are creating substitute fuels such as ethanol derived from corn or diesel derived from algae. Biofuel players range from the oil majors, such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell, to ethanol giants VeraSun Energy and Poet, to tiny firms like Solarzyme, which started in its founders' garage five years ago and is now testing an algae catalyst in a large commercial vat. Many firms are working on cellulosic ethanol, derived from organic materials such as grasses or wood chips, but those factories are still in the pilot or demonstration stage.
Almost all of those alternatives rely on federal subsidies or are counting on lower costs as technology evolves. The cheaper oil gets, the bigger those technological improvements need to be to compete.
The electric car has the potential for making a bigger impact than alternative fuels because it would be powered by the electricity grid, which relies on a mix of coal, nuclear, natural gas and renewable energy sources. Moreover, recharging an electric car is much cheaper than refueling a gasoline car.
Its proponents say the electric car has transformative potential that other transportation alternatives lack. "We want customers to see the Volt as the game changer it is, not only for the technology, but also for business, and maybe more importantly for the way the world drives," said Troy A. Clarke, president of GM North America.
"Reducing our oil dependency meaningfully in the U.S., under any scenario, requires radically improving the efficiency of our vehicles," says Saurin D. Shah, a vice president at investment firm Neuberger Berman who expects an explosion of hybrid and plug-in cars by 2030. He predicts hybrid and electric cars will replace conventional vehicles as swiftly as electric locomotives replaced steam-driven ones.
But because their batteries are expensive, plug-in cars are going to cost as much as $8,000 more than conventional gasoline cars. The lower the price of gasoline, the longer it is going to take for fuel savings to make up for the car purchase premium. That is one reason why Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has proposed a $7,000 tax credit for consumers who buy electric cars. Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) favors a $5,000 tax credit for cars with ultra-low emissions.
A Long Road to Transition
More than a decade ago, GM killed an electric car called the EV1; the company said motorists weren't interested, but many analysts said a hidebound GM lacked interest. The car ended up as an expensive public-relations debacle. It didn't help that oil prices at the time had collapsed.
But even if oil prices are high, there are bumps in the road to a plug-in automobile future.
If large numbers of electric cars are plugged in at the wrong time of day, they could strain utility capacity. "Today, our electric grid cannot support massive quantities of plug-in hybrid vehicles very well," said Peter Darbee, chief executive of Pacific Gas and Electric. Depending on a utility's fuel mix, plug-in vehicles could boost particulates, or soot. And only half of Americans have electrical outlets where they park their cars at night, according to a major auto firm executive.
Electric vehicles might not solve all strategic issues, either. James Woolsey, former head of the CIA, promotes electric cars because, he says, "We can, we should, and we must, as a major national priority . . . absolutely, totally, completely destroy oil's monopoly" to break the U.S. dependence on foreign oil.
But Irving Mintzer, an energy expert, notes that most electric vehicle motors contain rare elements such as neodymium, and about 95 percent of the world's supply currently comes from China. The United States might swap one form of dependence for another, he said.
And then there is the question of consumer tastes and habits.
Alan L. Madian, director of consulting firm LECG, notes that it takes time for motorists to get used to new types of cars; it has taken a decade for Toyota to sell 1 million Priuses, less than 1 percent of the cars on the road. Madian said that even with "heroic" assumptions about the sales of new electric cars, they would make up 50 percent of new vehicles by 2030 and only 8 percent of cars on the road.
"These transitions take a long time," he said.
Financing Challenges
Ultimately the future of all alternatives to oil comes down to money. That's why one of the most intriguing promoters of electric cars isn't an automobile person at all.
Shai Agassi, once a contender for the chief executive slot at international software giant SAP, says that the right business model will put electric cars in the fast lane.
He wants to make owning an automobile more like owning a cellphone. In exchange for signing up for refueling service, he would give you an electric car for free. You could plug it in at public parking spaces or at home. You'd pay for electricity with a card, like a phone calling card. During long trips, motorists could pull into recharging stations resembling car washes and swap a battery running low on juice for one fully charged in just a bit more time than it takes to fill a tank with gasoline and check the oil.
Agassi's plan will get a test drive in Israel and Denmark, whose governments have pledged support. Agassi's Silicon Valley-based firm Project Better Place has raised $200 million venture capital from the likes of Morgan Stanley, VantagePoint Venture Partners, Wolfensohn & Co. and oil refiner Israel Corp. Renault-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn has promised to deliver tens of thousands of electric cars by 2011.
"We started with the following question: How do you run an entire country without oil?" said Agassi. The cost of installing half a million recharging stands and 120 battery swap stations would come to $5 billion, he said, considerably less than Israel's annual bill for oil imports -- at least earlier this year.
Falling oil prices, however, make Agassi's plan a tougher sell. With gasoline at $7 a gallon, he can recover the cost of the car he gives away through his recharging stations. The price at the pump, combined with heavy taxes, was higher than that in Israel and most of Europe this summer. But this week, prices fell even in countries with heavy fuel taxes; in Britain, prices fell as low as $5.40 a gallon.
Keeping electric car projects going could be even tougher for the big automakers in the United States, where fuel taxes are much smaller.
"If you have to spend X dollars and your profitability has just gone into the black hole and you're having issues getting financing and just keeping the lights on, are you going to spend a lot of money on a high-risk product?" asked analyst Shah. "Probably not."
LOAD-DATE: October 20, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Justin Sullivan -- Getty Images; Demand for electric cars like this Saturn hybrid may flag if gas prices keep sliding.
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IMAGE; By Stelios Varias -- Reuters; Motorists filled up at a Woodbridge gas station on Friday. U.S. drivers are among the world's most profligate, yet U.S. cars rank low on efficiency.
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October 20, 2008 Monday
Regional Edition
The Democrats' Daunting Digits
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 1014 words
Numbers -- like hips -- don't lie.
In a political world increasingly dominated by spin and increasingly dismissive of substance, it's important from time to time to remember that, for all the back-and-forth, sometimes the numbers are the numbers.
The Fix was reminded of this late last week when we got our hands on a document detailing the massive state-by-state voter-registration gains scored by Democrats between the last presidential election and this one. The memo, which was produced by the Atlas Project, a Democratic research and analysis firm, and obtained late last week by The Fix, provided a bunch of eye-opening facts and figures.
To wit:
· In the 13 battleground states that require voters to register by party, there are nearly 1.5 million more Democrats than at this time in 2004. The comparable Republican numbers, by contrast, have fallen by 61,000 during that time.
· Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by more than 3.3 million in these same 13 battleground states, roughly double the edge -- 1.8 million -- they enjoyed over the GOP four years ago.
· In the 10 battleground states without voter registration by party, total registration has risen by 1.4 million between 2004 and 2008.
· In Florida, there are almost 400,000 more registered Democrats today than in 2004, while Republican registrants have grown by less than 150,000 in that same time. In Pennsylvania, Democratic registration has increased by more than 430,000 since 2004 while GOP registration has gone up by 175,000. And in North Carolina, Democrats have added nearly 175,000 new voters, compared with just under 61,000 for Republicans.
While the above numbers are impressive for Democrats, it's important to remember that simply being registered as a voter for one party or the other doesn't guarantee a vote for Barack Obama or John McCain. Democrats, for decades, have enjoyed voter-registration edges in the South, for example, but have struggled to win these states because of the culturally conservative nature of registered Democrats.
Whether these registration numbers will pay off in actual votes for Obama remains to be seen. But they are yet another testament to the decided tilt of the national playing field toward Democrats this fall.
An Obama Effect in Missouri?
Barack Obama drew 100,000 people in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon, and at least 75,000 people in Kansas City a few hours later. That's very good news for Kay Barnes and Judy Baker.
The two Democrats are trying to win solidly Republican House seats, and the harder Obama works the Show-Me State, the better their chances of scoring upsets.
Baker, a state House member, is competing against banker Blaine Luetkemeyer for the 9th District seat being vacated by Republican Kenny Hulshof, who is running for governor (though trailing state Attorney General Jay Nixon badly in polling). Democratic political analysts said a big Obama turnout in Columbia, home to the University of Missouri, could tip the scale for local resident Baker, even though John Kerry lost the 9th District to President Bush by 59 percent to 41 percent in 2004. Recent polls show a tight race with a large undecided vote.
Barnes faces longer odds in her bid to unseat GOP Rep. Sam Graves in the northwestern 6th District. The former Kansas City mayor is getting a big assist from Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, who beat GOP incumbent Jim Talent in 2006 in one of that cycle's bigger upsets. Barnes has a shot if turnout is huge in the Kansas City suburbs at the district's edge, and so long as McCain's coattails don't drive new Graves voters to the polls in the more rural parts of the district.
Speaking to reporters after Obama's St. Louis rally on Sunday, McCaskill said the harshly negative turn that McCain's campaign had taken in Missouri, with its blast of anti-Obama robo-calls and direct mail, could repel even the most conservative rural voters.
McCaskill called the tactics "mean," "nasty" and "petty" and added: "The more they do that, the more it's going to chase people to our side."
'Anti-' Maimed?
The ghost of Mike Pappas may be coming back to haunt Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.).
In 1998, Pappas, then a freshman Republican congressman from New Jersey, was cruising to reelection when he took to the House floor to read an homage to independent counsel Kenneth Starr set to the tune of the children's classic "Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star." Um, not smart. The song caused a national fervor and led directly to Pappas's defeat at the hands of five-time "Jeopardy" champion Rush Holt.
Bachmann could be headed down that same ignominious path after comments she made on MSNBC last week in which she expressed concern that Barack Obama holds "anti-American" views.
The remark, which quickly drew national attention, has re-invigorated Democratic candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg (awesome name!), who has raised more than $600,000 since Bachmann's appearance Friday on "Hardball."
National Democrats, buoyed by an internal poll last week that showed Bachmann leading Tinklenberg by a narrow margin of 42 percent to 38 percent, are pouncing and are set to begin $1 million worth of television advertising in the district tomorrow.
Bachmann, elected in 2006, should have had little trouble holding this suburban Twin Cities district, which President George W. Bush carried in 2004 with 57 percent. But she has been a lightning rod for controversy throughout her first two years in office and is now in the fight of her political life.
Could "anti-American" be the new "Twinkle, Twinkle Kenneth Starr"?
1 DAY: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton travels to the Twin Cities to campaign with comedian Al Franken (D) in his race against Sen. Norm Coleman (R). "Hillary Clinton is a fighter for the middle class, a champion for change, and a friend and hero of mine," said Franken. Left unsaid: He's good enough, he's smart enough, and doggone it, people like him.
9 DAYS: Barack Obama floods the airwaves -- or at least the broadcast channels -- with a 30-minute infomercial/political ad. The last man to do such a thing? Ross Perot, way back in 1992.
LOAD-DATE: October 20, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Brianna and Joshua Parker, 15 and 11, with parents Jerome and Deborah behind them and pal Jayden Brown, 9, at right, cheer in Kansas City.
IMAGE
IMAGE; The turnout for Obama in St. Louis and Kansas City is a good sign for underdog Missouri Democratic congressional candidates Kay Barnes, left, and Judy Baker.
IMAGE; C-span; Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) seems to have missed the musical moral of the story that put the "then-" in then-Rep. Mike Pappas.
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October 20, 2008 Monday
Met 2 Edition
Obama Endorsed By Colin Powell;
Democrat Wins Praise From Prominent Republican, Announces Record $150 Million Fundraising Month
BYLINE: Karen DeYoung; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1406 words
Colin L. Powell yesterday became the most prominent Republican to endorse Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, with the former secretary of state and retired four-star general declaring the senator from Illinois to be a "transformational" figure who would "electrify our country . . . [and] the world."
Powell's endorsement, on NBC's "Meet the Press," came as Obama's campaign announced it had raised more than $150 million in September, more than doubling the previous record for monthly fundraising and giving him a vast financial advantage over Republican John McCain in the final weeks before Election Day.
Powell said he respects McCain and considers him a friend. But he said that McCain's "unsure" response to the ongoing economic crisis and his selection of a running mate whom "I don't believe is ready to be president of the United States" disappointed him, as had the recent negative tenor of McCain's campaign and a "narrower and narrower" Republican approach to serious national problems.
"I watched Mr. Obama," particularly in recent weeks, Powell said, and "he displayed a steadiness, an intellectual curiosity, a depth of knowledge . . . in not just jumping in and changing every day, but showing intellectual vigor."
Obama "has given us a more inclusive, broader reach into the needs and aspirations of our people," he said. "He is crossing lines -- ethnic lines, racial lines, generational lines." Powell added that the Democratic senator had chosen in Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. a running mate who "is ready to be president on Day One."
In a telephone interview yesterday, Powell said his decision had been "emerging since the conventions, when I heard the convention speeches, saw who the vice presidential candidates were and then watched the debates."
"The real question," he said, "was whether to go public. . . . I just felt I had to, and I crossed that bridge last week" after consulting with close friends and family members. He said he had not informed either campaign in advance.
The announcement is a blow to McCain, a fellow Vietnam War veteran whose 2000 presidential campaign Powell supported before George W. Bush won the Republican nomination. McCain had publicly pledged during that campaign to name Powell as his secretary of state.
McCain sought to shrug off yesterday's endorsement, saying that he has always "admired and respected" Powell and that it "doesn't come as a surprise." He said that he was pleased to have the support of four other former Republican secretaries of state, and he said he had "a respectful disagreement" with Powell over whether Obama is ready to lead the country.
Powell, 71, served as secretary of state during President Bush's first term, but most of the power of his endorsement comes from his 35-year military career, during which he served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, and earlier as national security adviser to President Ronald Reagan.
Still reviled by some Democrats for his support of the Iraq war, Powell did not oppose the 2003 decision to invade the country. But inside the administration, and in public after leaving office, he was sharply critical of the conduct of the occupation. He has said that his February 2003 United Nations speech on Iraq's supposed weapons of mass destruction was based on faulty intelligence and remains a "blot" on his record.
Since his departure from government in January 2005, however, Powell has regained much of the stature he held before joining the Bush administration; he remains highly respected at home and abroad as a foreign policy "pragmatist" and political centrist. His stamp of approval is likely to improve Obama's already favorable chances in once-reliable Republican states such as Virginia, and with the military community.
Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), on CBS's "Face the Nation," called Powell a "uniting figure" whose endorsement should overcome any lingering concern over Obama's lack of national security experience.
Republican former House speaker Newt Gingrich said on ABC's "This Week": "What that just did in one sound bite -- and I assume that sound bite will end up in an ad -- is it eliminated the experience argument. How are you going to say the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, former national security adviser, former secretary of state was taken in?"
Campaigning in North Carolina, Obama said he was "beyond honored and deeply humbled to have the support" of "a great soldier, a great statesman and a great American." A campaign spokesman said Obama called Powell after his appearance to thank him and say that he looked forward to taking advantage of Powell's advice in the two weeks before the election and, if he is elected, over the next four years.
Powell, an African American who headed the armed forces during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, was touted in 1995 as the only person who could upset Clinton's 1996 reelection bid. Then a registered independent, he rejected a run at the presidency but announced he would join the Republican Party and try to reverse what he considered its dangerous turn to the right. But Powell quickly withdrew from politics and turned his attention to working with minority youth. He reentered the political limelight when he agreed to support George W. Bush's 2000 campaign.
In his television appearance yesterday, Powell said that he had watched McCain and Obama over the past two years and told "my beloved friend and colleague . . . a friend of 25 years, 'John, I love you, but I'm not just going to vote for you on the basis of our affectionate friendship.' " And Powell said he told Obama: "I'm not going to vote for you just because you're black. . . . You have to pass the test of 'Do you have enough experience? Do you bring the judgment to the table that would give us confidence that you would be a good president?' "
During the recent economic crisis, Powell said, Obama had shown "steadiness, intellectual curiosity, a depth of knowledge." As for McCain, he said, "I've found that he was a little unsure as to how to deal with the economic problems that we were having, and almost every day there was a different approach to the problem. And that concerned me. I got the sensing that he hasn't had a complete grasp of the economic problems that we had."
Powell said he was also concerned by McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whom he called "a distinguished woman" but someone not ready to be president. "That raised some question in my mind as to [McCain's] judgment," he said.
In explaining his decision, Powell was more critical of the Republican Party and McCain's campaign than of the candidate himself. He said Republican attempts to tie Obama to the 1960s domestic terrorism of William Ayers amounted to "demagoguery" and a distraction from pressing issues.
"I understand what politics is all about," Powell said, ". . . but I think this goes too far. . . . It's not what people are looking for."
Powell also said he was troubled by Republicans who "said such things as 'Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim.' Well, the correct answer is 'He is not a Muslim; he is a Christian. He's always been a Christian.' But the really right answer is 'What if he is?' "
"Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country?" he added. ". . . Is there something wrong with some 7-year-old Muslim American kid believing that he or she could become president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, 'He's a Muslim, and he might be associated with terrorists.' This is not the way we should be doing it in America."
Powell, who supports affirmative action for minorities and abortion rights, has also expressed concern about McCain's positions on domestic social issues. "I would have difficulty with two more conservative appointments to the Supreme Court," he said.
While saying that race was not a decisive factor in his decision, Powell said, "I can't deny that it will be a historic event for an African American to become the president."
Powell said he would not campaign for Obama, noting the short amount of time that remains until Election Day. He also said that he is "in no way interested in returning to government" but that he would consider any offers made by the next president.
Staff writers Michael Abramowitz, traveling with the McCain campaign, and Shailagh Murray, traveling with the Obama campaign, contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 20, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Brendan Smialowski -- "meet The Press" Via Associated Press; Colin Powell, former Bush secretary of state, told Tom Brokaw he was concerned about the direction of his friend John McCain's campaign.
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October 20, 2008 Monday
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Obama's September Haul Provides Huge Advertising Edge;
Amount More Than Doubles Old Record
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 1198 words
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama announced yesterday that he raised more than $150 million in September, obliterating previous fundraising records and giving him an enormous tactical advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain in the final weeks of the presidential campaign.
With tens of millions more to spend than McCain, Obama has gone on the offensive in dozens of states, including several once considered long shots, such as North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. He is running three television ads to every one aired by McCain, and he has built a massive operation to reach voters on Election Day.
The campaign has raised so much money that it is considering passing some along to Democratic Party committees to try to help grow the party's majorities in Congress, according to a campaign source.
Obama's September fundraising effort well more than doubled the record of $67 million that he set in August and more than tripled the record set during the 2004 race. The Democrat did it largely by continuing to tap the enthusiasm of novice donors contacted through Web ads and e-mail appeals. The campaign said 632,000 people made their first donation to Obama in September, and the average contribution was less than $100.
The single biggest spike in online giving for the month came when the campaign took in $10 million between convention speeches by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the GOP's vice presidential pick, and McCain.
Overall, 3.1 million donors have contributed to Obama's campaign, which has raised more than $575 million through the primaries and general-election campaign.
Veteran campaign finance experts called the September effort staggering, noting that Obama raised on average more than $200,000 an hour. "He has just completely changed the scale of presidential fundraising," said Anthony Corrado, who has been writing about presidential fundraising since the mid 1980s.
Unlike Obama, McCain opted to take $84 million in public funding for the general election and to bank on the support of the Republican National Committee, which raised $66 million last month. The Democratic National Committee announced that it raised $50 million in September.
McCain spent $32.3 million of the public funds last month, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission, his campaign reported last night. Two-thirds of that amount, $22.6 million, went for advertising.
Obama's decision to become the first presidential candidate in history not to take public money was considered a gamble, especially because it meant being criticized for breaking a pledge to work within the confines of a public financing system born out of Watergate-era reforms.
"I said at the time that I thought McCain would not be particularly disadvantaged by taking public funds," said Bradley Smith, a former Republican appointee to the FEC. "Then Senator Obama goes out and doubles anything that's been seen before. It really is amazing."
The gamble has been paying off for weeks. Instead of having to choose which battleground states to which he will direct resources, as McCain is forced to do, Obama is spending prolifically in all of them.
Instead of reaching out to voters primarily on television, through the mail, and in automated calls, as McCain is doing, Obama is running ads that are popping up in such unconventional spots as Web sites, infomercials and video games.
Instead of running only negative ads during the campaign's final month, as McCain has done, Obama has run not only just as many negative spots, but also more positive ones.
"You see it in the breadth of the ad campaign. You see it in the enormity of the organization. They have not been forced to make resource choices that are typical in a presidential campaign," Corrado said.
Obama's efforts in Florida, where he began airing television ads weeks before McCain, highlight the difference having so much money can make. The head start was a trademark of his primary campaign, but Republicans in the state said Obama was throwing money down the drain in a state he could not win.
"Many people thought it was a head fake, even in the Democratic party," said Mark Gilbert, a top Obama bundler in Florida. "But it's the reason you see the very, very close race there now."
At the same time, Obama is spending in states he has virtually no chance of winning, such as Utah, where Gilbert has a second home.
"They know they're in the reddest of the red states," Gilbert said. "But his supporters are helping by going into western Colorado. They're going into Nevada to help with the ground game there. And the campaign knows that putting some resources there sends the message that Senator Obama wants to be president of all 50 states."
Obama's fundraising effort began taking shape in January 2007, when he first sat down with financial advisers in a rented office suite, three blocks from the Capitol. Obama showed them the thin list of potential donors he had gathered during his 2004 Senate bid and while helping other politicians in 2006. The aides were unimpressed.
The plan they devised involved a novel recipe for fundraising. It would be one part Howard Dean, whose 2004 Democratic primary campaign was the first to harness the power of the Internet to raise cash. And it would be one part Sen. John F. Kerry, the party's 2004 nominee, who built an impressive structure for tapping support from those who could write checks up to the limit of what election laws would allow.
During the primaries, Obama had help from scores of bundlers, many from long-standing Democratic money circles in Hollywood and on Wall Street, and many who joined from his home town of Chicago. But Peter Daou, a key Internet strategist to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's primary bid, said it was the sophistication of Obama's online fundraising effort that set him apart.
"They've taken things we've all used for a couple years now and turned it into a well-oiled machine," Daou said. "They've been creative and innovative along the way, certainly. But this is not just gimmicks. To me they're like the Michael Jordan of fundraising."
Republican National Committee officials have expressed concerns about the potential for abuse with small-dollar fundraising on this scale. They have cited examples of fake names used to donate through the Internet and an example of a foreign contribution, which was returned. The Obama campaign has said it has vetted donations as quickly as possible and would return any questionable contributions.
In June, the Center for Responsive Politics and several other campaign finance groups urged Obama and McCain to publish information about their small donors -- election law does not require campaigns to release information about donors who give less than $200.
Massie Ritsch, a spokesman for the center, said the Obama campaign could have avoided questions about its donations had it responded. At the same time, Ritsch said, there is nothing to suggest that fake or foreign donations are a large-scale problem.
"It's very hard to corrupt the system on a large scale," he said. "The amount of coordination that would be required to corrupt a campaign that's raised more than half a billion dollars is really just impossible."
LOAD-DATE: October 20, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has raised enough money to blanket the airwaves and place ads in nontraditional spots, such as video games.
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
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168 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 20, 2008 Monday 1:00 PM EST
Pet Songs;
Celebrating Animal Companions Through Music and Video
BYLINE: Joe Heim, Dan Zak and Anne Midgette, Washington Post Staff Writers, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2407 words
HIGHLIGHT: Last month, the Sunday Source section invited readers to compose original songs about their pets, record themselves singing them and send in the videos. Dozens of people did so, using guitars, dulcimers, and pink wigs to pay tribute to the beloved dogs, cats, and rats in their lives.
Last month, the Sunday Source section invited readers to compose original songs about their pets, record themselves singing them and send in the videos. Dozens of people did so, using guitars, dulcimers, and pink wigs to pay tribute to the beloved dogs, cats, and rats in their lives.
Sunday Source's Joe Heim and Dan Zak, along with contest judge and classical music critic Anne Midgette, were online Monday, October 20 to discuss the results of Sunday Source's inaugural Pet Songs contest.
Click here to see all six finalists' videos and vote for YOUR favorite!
A transcript follows.
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Dan Zak: Welcome to this chat. Despite its ridiculousness, it will be more entertaining than your only other chat option in the 1 o'clock hour ("Waterborne Diseases"? Really? Who wants to chat about sewage overflow during lunch?). If you haven't already, please take a moment to view the Pet Song videos. I have a favorite: "Bones," all the way. That song is boss. Now let's have a really controversial discussion about SINGING TO YOUR PET.
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For the critics ...: Your comments were tongue-in-cheek, right? You weren't REALLY trying to "review" these, right? Just looking for the silly song you liked best?
Anne Midgette: Well, this represented a rare chance for a classical music critic. I usually only get to review animals in music when a stage director puts a horse on stage at the Metropolitan Opera. And I missed the night when a dog began singing along with Renee Fleming in "Manon" (subsequently immortalized in the children's book "The Dog Who Sang at the Opera"). So obviously I wanted to make the most of this opportunity.
As to my degree of seriousness, I would say that my comments stood in the same relation to serious music criticism as the entries did to MTV videos.
Which is to say, my remarks were just as tongue-in-cheek as the songs were. You decide.
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McLean, Va.: How many submissions did you get in all? And how bad were the ones you didn't include?
Dan Zak: We got maybe 20-something submissions -- way more than we expected. None of them were horrifying, although some definitely tended toward the pathetic. But pathetic in a good way, you know? I mean, what do you expect when you ask a nation of cat people to send in home videos?
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Washington, D.C.: Individually, which would you say are your favorites? Outside of the group staff or critics' picks?
Joe Heim: I think Georgia was the sweetest and Mr. Scrappers the most entertaining. But Bones has a delicious edge, so that's probably my favorite.
Dan Zak: There's something to like about each. The dulcimer in Rat Song, the sweetness of Georgia and Sami Cat, the production value of Rescue Dog, the lyrical inventiveness of Bones, the insanity of Scrappers.
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Singing Dog: Our family had a dog (that actually looked a lot like Bo Bo) that used to howl along ONLY when we sang Happy Birthday. Weird, huh?
Joe Heim: It probably had some unpleasant associations with birthdays. Aging seven years every year can't be easy.
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Atlanta, Ga.:"Georgia" isn't doing very well in the votes, but I can say it was the one that stuck in my head the most. And it's so sweet! I liked that the videos ran the gamut from silly to sincere.
Dan Zak: I've been singing "Sami Cat" for a solid month now. The melody just sticks in your brain. Very sweet. And Georgia isn't getting votes because it lacks the flash of Scrappers and Rescue Dog Rock. Georgia is almost too sincere and wistful to be the crowd favorite. But we're glad you like it.
Anne Midgette:"Georgia" certainly grew on me on a second hearing. I think its straightforward production values perhaps masked its musical charms; I give this points as a diamond in the rough.
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Anonymous: Mr. Scrappers is hilarious! But Georgia is the best musically; great voice and guitar playing. I loved watching these. I love that people take the time to do stuff like this!
Joe Heim: We love that people take the time to do this too. There are lots of talented readers out there. For our next contest we may ask readers to compose and recite an epic poem on video. Must be at least 45 minutes long. That should get page views.
Anne Midgette: I see the makings of an annual competition here. It is but a short step from here to a "Capitol Pet Song Video Festival" on the Mall.
Dan Zak: Maybe we could do a contest of people singing about Peeps?
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Washington, D.C.: I hate you. I have been singing "Mr. Scrappers, you're a good boy ..." for two days now.
Joe Heim: Don't hate us. Hate Randy Scope. He wrote the song.
Dan Zak: Or hate Mr. Scrappers. I get the feeling he's a snooty dog.
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Washington DC: In your estimation, which of these dogs could have a chance on the hit TV show "America's Greatest Dog"?
Anne Midgette: This is impossible to answer, on the grounds that "Rescue Dogs" alone presented far too many candidates to evaluate in a mere 60 seconds.
But I suspect that popular opinion would lean toward Mr. Scrappers.
Dan Zak: If destroying mail were a prerequisite to winning America's Greatest Dog, then Scrappers would definitely win.
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Hmmm: Gee... thanks so much for captioning the videos so that those of us with a hearing loss could enjoy them too! Please note the sarcasm here...
Dan Zak: Noted for next year.
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Rats!: Mr. Scrappers is good but you can't beat the whimsy of "We've got three rats." Rats are cool but much maligned and this song is an anthem for rats.
Anne Midgette: I was also inclined to give "We've got three rats" points for originality on the grounds that all the other videos I saw were cat- and dog-centric. I don't know whether to infer from this that lizard, ferret, fish or parrot owners are somehow less vocal in their admiration for their animal companions or that their videos just didn't make the final cut.
Dan Zak: We didn't get any lizards, ferrets, fish or parrots. The rats were by far the most exotic of the animals. The rest were cats and dogs.
Anne Midgette: And this on a day when Book World devoted two whole pages to reviews of books about parrots.
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D.C.: Why were critics even brought into the process? Don't you think you marginalized the Source staff by doing so?
Dan Zak: The Source staff loves being marginalized. It's a fetish.
Actually, the staff was in charge of narrowing the field down to six finalists. So we did have a say. But we though it would be funny to have the Post's heretofore serious critics look at these videos with the same eye/ear they'd use to assess Dylan, Scorsese or Ivan Fischer interpreting Mahler.
Anne Midgette: After all, the Source staff picked one favorite. And we critics, acting in the time-honored contrarian spirit of our breed, picked a different favorite. (Voting was, of course, anonymous.)
Anne Midgette: I should add that I'm a little worried about that "heretofore serious" comment. (Perhaps this implies that criticism is now going to the dogs?)
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Rescue Dog respect: This is a wonderful contest. I voted for Mr. Scrappers, no contest there, but would have chosen the rescue dogs as No. 2. The video is a little over the top (pink boas? c'mon!) but leaps with dog-love. Yea to Washington Post for the concept. I loved the illustration in the paper edition.
Dan Zak: You loved the illustration? Liliane, is that you? (Liliane's our art director.)
Anyway, yeah: Rescue Dog Rock was impressive. These people sunk serious money into producing the video. And it's kinda for a good cause too. But if you judge everything purely by melody, this one definitely loses.
Anne Midgette: I don't know - I love melody as much as the next critic, but I thought the production values on Rescue Dog Rock were pretty impressive.
I suppose to be consistent, Josh DuLac and I should have judged mainly the music and Ann Hornaday should have judged mainly the merits of the videos/productions, but I suspect that we all took it upon ourselves to espouse a more global approach.
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Manassas, VA: I liked the Rescue Dog one and Bones and found it hard to vote for 1 but I did. I liked the production and the message of Rescue Dog. I liked the bluesy ness of Bones.
I voted for Rescue Dog. It looks like my niece's dog.
Joe Heim: It's just like voting for president. Choose the one that most reminds you of your niece's dog.
Dan Zak: Which is why I'm writing in a vote for Fred Thompson.
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Westminster, MD: Technically, your chat is also competing with Wilbon but since he's also about 30 minutes late-I think you're in the clear.
Dan Zak: Who is this Wilbon fellow?
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DC: grrr ruff ruff ruff grrr ahroooooo ahrooooo!
Dan Zak: Down, boy.
Joe Heim: down boy!
Anne Midgette: This would appear to be a comment from Bo Bo, who is understandably resentful of all the attention going to Mr. Scrappers.
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No originality here: I, like others I am sure, sing to my pets, though not original songs. Felix the dog's song is, naturally, sung to the tune of Feelings: "Felix, whoa whoa whoa, Felix..." Lulu, my other dog, does have a crazy, maniacal sing songy call which my boyfriend made up, "Luuuuluuuuu" which makes her come running over to frantically start to lick your eyelids. Upon reflection, I guess that's pretty original!
Joe Heim: Be sure to send a video next year. Sounds extremely promising.
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DC: Can the winners be judges next time around?
Joe Heim: The winning pets or their owners?
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D.C.: Mommy first read the page in the Post and decided this was a family voting endeavor. So the parents collected the 3 year old Amelia and 1.5 year old Wachemo to watch and listen. Daddy liked Georgia -- best musically, truly impressed when he read that the artist first learned her guitar skills at 12. After replaying all the tunes three times, Amelia said she liked Rats best. Why? "Because I do." Wachemo grooved best to Rescue Dogs and Bones, when he wasn't trying to rip the newspaper. And Mommy's choice ... toss up between Georgia and Sami, with the edge to Sami. We all laughed at Mr. Scrappers and could totally relate. Big question: how can we download these to add to our music collection???? Great job everyone!
Dan Zak: Wachemo!
Anne Midgette: While I am vastly entertained by your description of your own judging process, I fear that you are delinquent in having failed to submit a song yourself. Wachemo is obviously just waiting for his big chance. (I am not entirely clear from your post whether Wachemo is of the animal or human persuasion, but my observation stands regardless.)
Dan Zak: I figured Wachemo was human. Hence my reaction. But whichever: Great name.
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Ballot Box: No question, just a comment! My kids are very sad that you're only allowed to vote once- they're all under 13 and therefore unable to (legally) have their own WaPo account. My 7, 5, and 3 year old argued for half an hour before I was allowed to cast our solitary vote for Bones (had I been voting on my own, I would have picked Georgia, and my 7 yr old is still bummed that she didn't get to vote for Sami Cat). Once we voted my 3 year old was ready to listen to Bones and Mr. Scrappers the rest of the day. I finally had to turn the computer off so he'd quit asking.
Thanks for doing this, it was a huge hit at my house!
Dan Zak: Children should be focused on their studies.
Joe Heim: I recommend taking them down to the local library and letting them vote on as many different computers as they can. You're never too young to learn about ballot stuffing.
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Anywhere: Tough, tough, tough call between "Mr. Scrappers" and "Bones." In the end I picked "Bones" and was rewarded with the revelation that I'd chosen the, ahem, underdog.
Dan Zak: Bones is running a solid third behind Scrappers and Rescue Dog (due partially to what I suspect are very successful get-out-the-vote campaigns).
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College Park, MD: I was afraid to vote for Bones, my favorite tune, because of the verse about cat killing. What can I say, I'm a crazy cat lady. What a relief to read that the real dog is mellow and not at all like the alter ego of the song! I can enjoy the song without guilt. Go Bones!
Anne Midgette: I found it striking that the dog-related songs tended to be flashy and involve fairly intricate production values, while the cat songs were mellow, female, and accompanied by guitar. Are there conclusions to be drawn here?
But I am glad to hear that a cat person can enjoy dog music. The premise we critics were given about "Bones" is that the song was exploring the dog's imaginary inner life.
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Bethesda, MD: I think Mr. Scrappers attacking the mail is what sealed the deal for me. Maybe McCain can borrow that for an ad and he might just close the gap on Obama.
Joe Heim: We don't have a dog in this fight.
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Richmond: Did Michael Vick submit an entry?
Dan Zak: Yes. The video consisted of pit bulls dancing to Jailhouse Rock.
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LonelyTown USA: I Love My Dog My heart goes a flutter Everytime I reach for A jar of peanut butter He doesn't care where I choose to spread it He's just so happy When I yell COME AND GET IT!!
What do you guys think?
Anne Midgette: Unfortunately I cannot give an official review to an entry submitted outside the time limits of the competition. (We classical music critics are uptight that way.)
Off the record, I'd say, Get that on a video and send it in next year.
Dan Zak: Uh, on second thought: Don't get that on video. Our contest rules specifically state "no pornography."
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Dan Zak: Okay, that's enough. Thanks for chatting, and forward the video links to your friends. If you can only vote in one election this season, vote for Pet Songs! In the meantime, check out the Sunday Source in section N of the Sunday paper, or online at www.washingtonpost.com/source. Become a fan of the section on Facebook. Also, e-mail the Three Wise Guys at wiseguys@washpost.com And just love us, generally.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 21, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Web Publication
Copyright 2008 Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive
All Rights Reserved
169 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 20, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Critiquing the Press
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3717 words
HIGHLIGHT: Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
He was online Monday, Oct. 20 at noon ET to take your questions and comments.
A transcript follows
Media Backtalk transcripts archive
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Akron, Ohio: As an undecided voter in Ohio I'm not impressed with Mr. Powell, being a conservative ,supporting Sen. Obama. He is quoted as saying" an African American president would be electrifying" so guess he is supporting him because Obama is black. He appears to be just like Mr. Lewis who certainly put a knife in Sen. Clinton's back who seems to be supporting Obama because he is black. Over the week-end on our T.V. there were so many negative ads from Obama maybe I'm not undecided. What a waste of money !
Howard Kurtz: I think that's a really unfair assumption. Powell carefully laid out the reasons he was breaking with McCain despite a 25-year friendship: He doesn't like the tactics McCain has been using, such as harping on Bill Ayers. He thinks Sarah Palin is unqualified. He's troubled by the GOP's shift to the right. He thinks Obama has been steadier than McCain in the financial crisis. You can never totally remove race as a factor in voting or endorsements, and you're free to dismiss Powell's reasoning, but to simply reduce it to race strikes me as simplistic.
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Tuckahoe, N.Y.: The claim by Sarah Palin that she said "no" to the bridge to nowhere has been exposed as false many times, but isn't it true that she's still out there, day after day, delivering this same line to rapturous audiences as if it were true? What can reporters do if candidates abuse the process like this; mention in every article covering the candidate that he/she has told a falsehood? If they do nothing, where is the incentive for a politician to stop lying to the people?
Howard Kurtz: Usually, when so many major news organizations debunk a politician's claim, as in this case, he or she will at least modify the language, if not drop it entirely. Sarah Palin has steadfastly refused. Charlie Gibson pinned her down, and she still kept repeating it in her speeches. She could have said she used the money for something else, rather than falsely claiming she had said "thanks but no thanks" in the first place. All journalists can do is repeatedly point out when someone is misstating the facts, and it's up to voters to judge whether that's the case and whether it's an important distortion.
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New York, N.Y.: It seems to be common wisdom by both sides that Obama will be the most left-wing president since LBJ, if not FDR. That being the case, why is it "intolerant" for National Review to drop Christopher Buckley's column as a result of his endorsement of Obama? Obama's political plans and ideology are 180 degrees from National Review's outlook. Why on earth should they not get him go? Do you think The Nation would continue to publish a columnist who endorsed McCain? Why should they?
Howard Kurtz: Without adopting your "common wisdom," I'd just say: What's wrong with a little intellectual debate in National Review, or any other opinion magazine? Does everyone have to march in lockstep? Buckley told me on Reliable Sources yesterday that his father would have devoted six pages of NR to voices denouncing him for embracing Obama, and it would have been good journalism. For the record, Buckley offered to drop the column because of the negative reaction, which he said included a donor vowing not to give the magazine any more money as long as he was associated with it. The resignation was quickly accepted.
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Fairfax, Va.: So is it time to lambaste Colin Powell now? Buchanan and Rush have already started with the "if he was not black theme."
Howard Kurtz: Everyone is entitled to his or her opinion. I think a better route is to take on the arguments that Powell carefully laid out on Meet the Press and in his press conference afterward. This guy was a hero on the right. Is he now to be denigrated simply for deciding that Obama would make a better president than McCain? If a white liberal came out for McCain, would we say that was because they're both white?
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Boston, Mass.: Howard
With regards to the Robocalls, my guess is that this happens during every election cycle. Is it Obama's strategy to utilize the press to shine a light on it, and therefore diminish the results?
Howard Kurtz: Sure. These calls do happen every election cycle - the Obama camp has not denied doing its own robocalls - and the offended party always tries to publicize them as a way of neutralizing their impact. The question is what is in the recordings and whether the message is distorted or unfair. In this case, they include William Ayers and the claim that Obama has an extreme position on abortion. I assume the latter refers to McCain's debate charge that Obama would not support a ban on partial-birth abortion, which Obama rebutted by saying he was only insisting on an exception for the life of the mother.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.: I'm trying to figure out if we live in one of the pro-American areas of the country or if we have unwittingly settled in an anti-American enclave. Seriously, with all the polls indicating that voters have shifted steadily away from calling themselves Republicans and are identifying themselves as Independents or Democrats, how does the GOP expect to get votes by insulting us?
Howard Kurtz: Pittsburgh, huh? Big city. Probably plenty of union members. You're definitely suspect...
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Falls Church, Va.: It was very interesting seeing Powell say that there would be nothing wrong with a Muslim president. I'm pretty sure 80% of Americans would not agree with that. Not very helpful to Obama.
Howard Kurtz: Whether it was politically helpful or not, it was an honest statement on Powell's part. And why should it hurt Obama, who, scurrilous rumors to the contrary, is a Christian?
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Arlington, Va.: How can papers like the New York Times or the Washington Post claim to have a firewall between the newspaper and editorial board when the Chairman and head editor sit in on important editorials like endorsing a president. Also these papers have never endorsed a republican for president (at least in the last couple of decades). There is always an excuse as to why the democrat is a better candidate in their mind, but at some point the facts speak for themselves. The people running these organizations support liberal candidates.
Howard Kurtz: I'm afraid you have little conception of how newspapers work. The "head editor" - the person who runs the newsroom - has absolutely, positively nothing to do with the editorial page or any candidate endorsements. The publisher does, which is fine, because the publisher is not involved in day-to-day newsroom decisions about coverage. The Post's editorial page, by the way, does not only take the Democratic side of political battles, as underscored by its strong support for the invasion of Iraq. And in 1988 the editorial page made no endorsement rather than support Michael Dukakis for president. The Chicago Tribune, meanwhile, has just endorsed the first Democratic presidential candidate in its history.
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Kurtz: "scurrilous rumors": I think it was Powell's whole point is that "rumors" of somebody being of the Muslim faith should not in any way be considered "scurrilous."
Howard Kurtz: My point is the following. There is nothing wrong with being a Muslim. We have a Muslim member of Congress. But if you are not a Muslim, and are accused in a rumor-mongering campaign of being a Muslim, that is dirty politics, simply because it is a lie.
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Alexandria, Va: There are reports suggesting that the crowds at Obama rallies also make ugly, inappropriate remarks about Palin and McCain, along the lines of what the McCain/Palin crowds are saying about Obama. Is the reporting about what happens at Dem. rallies an attempt at even handedness or is the hostility as bad on the left as it is on the right?
Howard Kurtz: I think the ugliness at the McCain-Palin crowds has been overblown as a news story. And the same standard should apply to Democratic crowds. There are always a few whack job jobs at rallies. One difference is that McCain actually called on several people who made intemperate statements, including the woman who insisted Obama is an Arab, prompting the senator to correct her.
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Berryville, Va.: The Akron poster seems all too typical, on the question of race.
What, are we to assume that all endorsements of white candidates by white followers are race-based, too?
We have to get past this ugliness, and I am glad that General Powell took the time to discuss issues and candidates and the needs of the country. Too bad that some refuse to listen to what he said, and would rather judge his endorsement by his skin color. He took great care to make certain his endorsement was not based on irrational factors. Too bad it's being taken the wrong way.
Howard Kurtz: I don't think it's unfair to point out that Powell must feel great pride at the prospect of an African-American president. But to say that is the *only* reason he made the endorsement strikes me as unfair and dismissive.
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washingtonpost.com: President Obama? ( Post, Oct. 20)
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Re: lambasting Colin Powell: I suspect what really ticked off Buchanan, Rush, etc.,. was when Powell said that the truly correct answer to whether or not Obama was a Christian was to reply not just "Yes, Obama's a Christian," but words to the effect that the U.S. is the sort of nation where even a young native-born Muslim child could dream of growing up to become President. While I'm sure it didn't change the right-wing based from supporting McCain, I wonder if you've seen any polling of undecided-voter reactions to this statement?
Howard Kurtz: That would be difficult, since Powell made the comments only 24 hours ago. I have long argued that the media overplay political endorsements, and I don't know whether this one is in a different category. It could provide reassurance to some wavering Republicans or independents who are leaning toward Obama but unsure whether he has the experience to be commander-in-chief. One thing I know: Powell's move has dominated the last two news cycles, and that is a setback for McCain, who has a limited number of days to play catch-up.
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Florissant Valley, Mo.: A pleasure to chat with "Reliable" Howard! here's a question that's been bothering me. It was amazing how quickly Joe the Plumber got on national news. Why has there been no comparable effort by our supposedly balanced media to contact and interview William Ayres? You would think that at least the Washington Times or Chicago Tribune would have sought him out. It does make you wonder whether the Obama campaign has him under wraps. What's the story? Thanks
Howard Kurtz: William Ayers has repeatedly refused to do interviews for the past year, since his association with Obama became known. He could talk to the Chicago Tribune; he could hold a news conference and everyone would cover it. But he has chosen not to, and there's not a shred of evidence the Obama campaign has had anything to do with that. Joe the Plumber, by contrast, has been happy to do interviews with Katie Couric, Diane Sawyer and Mike Huckabee (for his new Fox show), and held a news conference outside his home. So Joe has not exactly shied away from the limelight.
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Chicago, Ill.: Fox News has now another special investigation special on Obama, I guess Hannity's didn't have enough impact. After all the questions on Hannity's main source and the one-sideness of Greta's, why does the press concentrate on any failings of MSNBC. Does the media itself not respect FOX and figure "it's just Fox"?
Howard Kurtz: I think there has been a focus on both Fox and MSNBC. The New York Times, to cite one example, did a big piece on the anti-Obama commentator with a history of anti-Semitism who was the centerpiece of that edition of "Hannity's America."
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Judith Miller: I got a kick out of your scoop that Judith Miller will be joining Fox. Do you think they will team her up with Oliver North on Afghanistan/Iraq reporting? That would be awesome! They could call it "The Jail Bait Fantasy Newshour" or something like that.
Howard Kurtz: I'm told Judith Miller will be an on-air analyst but will not be doing reporting for Fox News. It's a part-time gig.
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New York, N.Y.: I'm guessing the home stretch McCain campaign whine will be that it's unfair that Barack Obama has so much money. This will likely resonate with the press -- and they'll compensate. Fortunately that compensation will largely involve giving more free media to McCain and Palin which will be of no help to their campaign.
Now tell me, Howard. Which part of that is wrong?
Howard Kurtz: To the contrary, I think if McCain had raised $150 million in one month and Obama was limited to $42 million a month in public financing we'd be seeing a number of stories questioning whether McCain was trying to buy the election. That is especially true since Obama went back on his word in promising to negotiate a public-financing agreement with McCain.
I put that question to Time's Mark Halperin on my show yesterday, and this is what he said:
"We'd also see a lot of stories about his going back on his word saying that he would accept the public money and would reach out to Senator McCain to try to work out a deal. So I think this is a case of a clear, unambiguous double standard, and any reporter who doesn't ask themselves -- why is that, why would it be different if it's a Republican? -- I think is doing themselves and our profession and our democracy a disservice."
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Powell's endorsement: Ordinarily don't tune into political talk shows (and I don't have cable, so sorry, Howard!) but I did turn on Meet the Press in time to catch Powell's endorsement.
You are right about people needing to see the full context of his comments. I was struck more by his comments about the direction of the Republican party ("my party") than about either candidate. And addressing the "Obama is a Muslim" question: he brought tears to my eyes talking about the mother embracing her son's gravestone -- the one with the crescent and star of Islam. That was a commander speaking, mourning one of his own.
Declaring that Powell's endorsement is only about race is an insult.
Howard Kurtz: Thanks for the comment.
Now go out and get cable!
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Journalism: What does it say about the state of your profession that the only guy who saw fit to confront McCain with the laughable hypocrisy of the Ayers business by mentioning his continuing association with the unrepentant criminal Liddy was ... David Letterman? Remember "head shots!"? Where's the apology?
Howard Kurtz: A ticked-off David Letterman is a fearsome sight to behold. Other journalists have questioned McCain about his use of the Ayers issue, including, at last week's debate, Bob Schieffer. But McCain hasn't been giving a whole lot of interviews, and has talked to his traveling press corps exactly once in nearly two months.
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washingtonpost.com: Obama's Personal Ties Are Subject of Program on Fox News Channel (New York Times, Oct. 7)
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Baltimore Md.: Re the "undecided" voter from Akron: My question is, since this race has been going on hot and heavy since January '07, how can anyone who has a pulse possibly be "undecided" unless they really have no interest in politics at all, never read a newspaper and never see the news. No matter which side you might favor, the differences between the two candidates are stark, as they have repeatedly told us. Are people who call themselves "undecided" at this stage not likely to vote at all, or will they go in the booth and make their choice with their eyes closed?
Howard Kurtz: Look, a lot of people tune into these things late. They have lives. They question whether politics affects their lives. Or maybe they just want to get on TV in one of those "undecided" focus groups.
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San Francisco, Calif.: Hello Mr. Kurtz, thanks for chatting today. What exactly is newsworthy about Judith Miller going to work for FOX News? Isn't the news actually that it's taken her this long to be absorbed by the neo-con mothership?
Howard Kurtz: Well, it seems to have been picked up by lots of blogs. I would say it represents a return to journalism by one of the best-known and most controversial reporters in the business, both because of her flawed WMD reporting and because she wound up going to jail before acknowledging that Scooter Libby had been her source in the Valerie Plame case.
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Re: Cable: "Now go out and get cable." Who pays the bills in your house -- since no one can restrain the monopoly of a few cable stations with their out-of-sight cable costs, lots of people can't afford it. And many now, are giving it up to put food on the table. My cable company just raised its already high rates, higher.
Howard Kurtz: I was being a little tongue-in-cheek. Everyone's so sensitive these days!
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Falls Church, Va.: So, Joe the Plumber asked Barack Obama a critical question while on a rope line, and the press immediately swung into action to destroy him. Quickly, the media dragged out his marital history and his tax problems to discredit him, which presumably serves to intimidate any other ordinary citizen who might criticize Obama. As bloggers on the right have pointed out, the media has arguably gone after this particular Obama critic harder and faster than it has gone into elements of Obama's own life.
Whatever happened to speaking truth to power, afflicting the comfortable, etc.?
Howard Kurtz: I would quarrel with the word "destroy." Joe put himself out there to a certain extent. It was his home-state Toledo Blade that first discovered he doesn't have a plumbing license and had unpaid taxes. Then everyone else piled on. My biggest problem with Joe is that McCain is using him to make the case against Obama's K$250-plus $250-plusK tax increase, when in fact he makes $40,000 and would get a tax cut under Obama. It's fine for him to say he hopes to one day buy a business and make enough to be hit by Obama's higher taxes on the affluent, but there's nothing wrong with news organizations pointing out the discrepancy.
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Montgomery Village, Md.: Howard, On election night, how will the networks report on the results? Will they call state by state as polls close and their exit polling projects a "winner"? If so , won't some key states where the polls close early --Va., N.C., Pa., N.H., Fla., etc. -- pretty much give us an idea of who the winner will be nationally even while people are still voting out West? How do the networks make the decision to declare a winner?
Howard Kurtz: They project a winner in each state after that state's polls have closed, based on exit polling and other factors, if one candidate has a big enough margin in that state to make network staffers feel comfortable with such a call. When one candidate gets to 270, they call the election. To be sure, if Obama carries, say, Virginia early, you will know it's going to be a good night for him well before the electoral math falls into place. But the networks haven't forgotten the debacle of 2000, so they're likely be cautious.
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Anonymous: The hate among McCain supporters toward Obama is far greater than the reverse. McCain supporters are bringing stuffed monkeys labeled Obama to rallies. That's akin to carrying a doll wearing prison garb and labeling it McCain.
Howard Kurtz: Perhaps, but how many people are doing that? A tiny fraction of 1 percent? I just think we have to be careful about making these generalizations?
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Phoenix, Ariz.: Howard,
It appears that factional talk radio has played little to no role in this campaign. Are we finally seeing its demise in the face of serious issues we all face in common?
Howard Kurtz: I don't agree with the premise. When Rush Limbaugh and others opposed McCain in the primaries, it definitely had an impact. Now Limbaugh, Hannity, Ingraham and others are hammering Obama daily. Just because he's ahead doesn't mean it has no impact. And while conservative talk radio is a far stronger force, Obama does benefit from Ed Schultz, Stephanie Miller and others on the left.
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Ashburn, Va.: Double standards exist. It's all about the degrees. Republicans complaining about campaign money just doesn't warrant. Imagine if Michelle Obama showed up to the convention in a K$300 $300K dress. Or if she advocated the separatist movement like Todd Palin. Elections are full of hypocrisies. Its what sticks that counts.
Howard Kurtz: A $300,000 dress? I'd like to see that!
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Un-Joe the Un-Plumber : The right wing has never been shy about attacking anyone, even a kid who appeared in an ad about health care a couple years ago, and Joe the Plumber is giving so many interviews that he doesn't have time to worry about how media scrutiny is 'destroying' him. (I wish the media would destroy me like this). It would be journalistic malpractice to ignore the many discrepancies in his story, because he's still being used as a poster boy by the campaign to support its arguments, and his situation doesn't support those arguments at all. That's a story.
Howard Kurtz: I figure Joe either ends up with a book deal or he can jack up his rates.
Thanks for the chat, folks.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 21, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 20, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Dan Balz, Washington Post Chief Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2674 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post chief political reporter Dan Balz was online Monday, Oct. 20 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Dan Balz: Good morning to everyone. Two weeks and a day left in Campaign 2008. Senator Obama is in Florida, where early voting is starting. Senator Obama is in Missouri. Both are competitive states. Both were won by President Bush four years ago. That tells you how the landscape is tilted at this point. We'll get to your questions.
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U.S.: Dan, I am sure you will have a ton of question in the queue today regarding the endorsement of Gen Powell. My only question, which is being touted by Buchanan and Rush, is whether this is a racially motivated gesture. Given Gen. Powell's history, do you consider this a valid argument?
Dan Balz: Tom Brokaw asked Secretary Powell about that on "Meet the Press" yesterday. Powell said if it were just about race, he could have made this endorsement months ago. He did not understate the potential significance of America electing its first African American president and said that would be something that should make all Americans proud. But he said there was far more than race that went into his decision.
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Dallas: Thanks for the chats, Dan; I'm sure you're looking forward to a break soon. This is less of a question than a proposal: With Obama collecting record amounts of money, it's starting to appear a little unseemly to just throw it at wall-to-wall TV advertising. As a supporter, I would love to see him use it to hire thousands of young people and set them loose on a big community-service project -- a river cleanup in Ohio or senior meals outreach. Something like this would feel like money well-spent, and would be a good tone with which which to start a presidency (fingers crossed), as well as a positive appeal to voters. The campaign-ad model seems very stale to me; doesn't it seem like it's time to think beyond it?
Dan Balz: This is an interesting notion. There are any number of questions already this morning -- and I suspect more on the way -- about Senator Obama's enormous fundraising advantage and the remarkable numbers he posted for both August and September. I'll post other questions/suggestions/thoughts about the money as we go along.
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Helena, Mont.: I supported public financing of campaigns, but I have rethought this. Obama's cash allows him to expand the election to more than the usual blue states plus one or two swing states -- he can make it a national election, where all voters are asked to vote. That's not possible when the candidates are hamstrung with $85 million plus party cash. I think Congress should revisit campaign finance reform and see how they can make it more possible for future campaigns to reach all voters. I know we in Montana have felt more a part of this election than any of the others, because at least one party is asking for our vote and we are being targeted.
Dan Balz: Here's another thought about the value of Senator Obama's fundraising -- that it has brought the campaign to many states that haven't felt part of previous presidential campaigns. All things considered, that's probably good. If Congress were to look at this with the idea of figuring out how to make it possible for future campaigns to reach all voters -- and there were calls to reinvigorate public financing -- then the amounts given to the two nominees would have to be increased significantly.
One worrisome note about the financial disparity between Senator Obama and Senator McCain is that it goes against the earlier, accepted, view that the general election should be fought on a relatively level playing field in terms of money. This year it's obviously no close and there will be some vigorous debate about that once the election is over. Senator Obama's fundraising shows there is great enthusiasm for his candidacy. The more that people want to be involved, in whatever way, in presidential campaigns, the better. So you've got competing notions of what's good for democracy playing out here.
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Seattle: Dan you said, "Sen. Obama is in Florida, where early voting is starting. Sen. Obama is in Missouri. Both are competitive states." I was unaware he can be in two places at once! That can be pretty handy as president.
Dan Balz: Sorry about that. Obama in Florida, McCain in Missouri. Obama was in Missouri on Saturday, with some pretty big crowds. Thanks for waking me up.
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An owner of a piece of this campaign: Obama also could give his donors a survey to find out what they would want him to do with leftover money, if any. He already gives them (us) surveys from time to time to find out what issues we care about. I really would appreciate a gesture of this type on his part. Obviously the timing has to be right, but he seems to be good at that.
Dan Balz: Thanks for the suggestion. Have you sent this idea to the Obama headquarters?
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Washington: Mr. Balz, your statement last week about the media having to take a harder look at Obama because he was ahead in the polls was indefensible. If I am not mistaken, America has a choice between two candidates. Isn't it the responsibility of the media to examine the two alternatives with equal vigor? Your proposal is precisely what is wrong with the media today. Obama is ahead, let's go after him. McCain is picking up steam, let's go after him now. Your comments betray the media's obsession with the horse race and the desire for a narrow race. The polls are what they are. It is not your job to callibrate your examination of the candidates based on the fluctuations of the polls. Shame on you.
washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Questioning Obama (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 13)
Dan Balz: If you read that piece, it did not say the media should not be examining Senator McCain. It was an effort to say we should be doing more than reporting on the problems with the McCain campaign and begin to look at Senator Obama as well, particulaly on substantive issues. I recall the media being criticized in the past for not asking harder questions of Candidate and President Bush at various points from 2000 forward. I don't think that asking and trying to answer substantive questions about a candidate's positions represents going after him. I also thought the effort by my colleagues at the Post over the weekend to look at what a transition might bring for either Obama or McCain was helpful and there's probably more that we can do.
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Montreal: Hi Dan -- thanks as always for chatting. Who are some up-and-coming leaders on the non-social-conservative side of the Republican Party? Who's out there to speak for the, for want of a better label, David Brooks Republicans? The moderate wing of the party may have been out of favor lately, but I sense a major comeback coming.
Dan Balz: Without starting a list of names, I'd think that, if Senator McCain loses this race, you will start hearing from the Republican governors. The congressional wing of the party will be very much on the defensive but the governors will assert themselves as new voice for the party.
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Vancouver, Wash.: Hi Mr. Balz. What effect will the TV media have on the outcome of the election on the West Coast if they release exit polling data from the East and Midwest when the polls out here still are open? I would guess it will diminish voter turnout and impact the "down-ballot" races. How do they plan on handling this? Thanks.
Dan Balz: The networks don't release exit poll data or make projections in states until all the polls in that state have closed. It's certainly possible that the outcome of this election could be foreshadowed by some of the states that close earliest. Virginia is one. If it looks like Senator Obama is carrying Virginia early in the evening, that will be a clue that he's likely to have a very good night. Both campaigns have extensive get-out-the-vote operations in many western states and they'll be doing everything they can to get their supporters out. It's possible some voters may be discouraged if the trends are clear, but there is so much interest in this election that I'd like to think people will come out regardless.
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Amherst, N.H.: Hi Dan. Thoroughly enjoying your coverage of this wild election cycle. I can't help thinking that even when it's over, it won't be over, what with the voter registration questions now being raised in key states like Ohio. But my main interest is money: Obama's September total is staggering, but put it in perspective against the 527 money from the GOP side he has to battle against. How much is the NRA spending to spread their message?
Dan Balz: There is far less 527 activity this year than in 2004. That's actually a big change and our team has chronicled that. Groups like the NRA are not 527s and they are active in behalf of the Republicans. But organized labor is spending tens of millions in behalf of the Democrats. I don't know how all that balances out, but I think it's clear at this point that Senator Obama has a big advantage in the direct competition, which is the most important this year.
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New York: What is the impact of McCain on Letterman and Palin on "Saturday Night Live." Will that help them in the polls at all? On another note, why is there so little coverage of the Clintons on the campaign trail? They have events every day but we rarely hear about it. And where is Al Gore?
Dan Balz: Letterman and SNL are good fun but probably not doing a lot to move the polls. The Clintons actually have not been out every day although they will be more active in the final couple of weeks. The media gives them some coverage but we have to keep our focus on the two presidential and, to a lesser extent, the two vice presidential candidates, plus all kinds of other stories we're trying to do.
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Washington: Why do you think that 527 groups have played such a small role this cycle?
Dan Balz: On the Democratic side, Senator Obama's campaign explictly said they didn't want their allies to give money to 527s and it had a big impact. The Republicans haven't gotten their act together.
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Keystone-Stater: We've been getting so many commercials for Barack Obama on TV here in Pennsylvania that, as an Obama supporter, I worry it could have the unintended consequence of turning off undecided voters. Has there ever been any research done on the effects of too much campaign advertising?
Dan Balz: I don't know about specific research, though there may be some. But it is a potential problem. People just get tired of it and don't want to hear it after a point. There is some risk there.
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Ohio: Being a young adult, I appreciate the extent that Obama is reaching out into our mobile world. He's advertising extensively on hulu.com and on the text mobile service ChaCha. I saw elsewhere that he's advertising in video games. All of these are targeting the 18-to-25-year-old crowd, so we'll see if it pays off. I'm sure it's not as expensive as tv ads, but it's reaching my age demographic in new ways, and I think that's exciting.
Dan Balz: Thanks for sending that along. They have certainly exploited technology to reach younger voters.
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Jacksonville, Fla.: At 10 a.m. as early voting began today, there were about 100 people standing in line in front of the voting site in downtown Jacksonville. No one remembers ever seeing so many people on the first day of early voting in previous elections. The 14 other early voting sites in the county also reported lines.
Dan Balz: Here is some breaking news, as the cable networks say. This just arrived from Jacksonville. We'll see what happens elsewhere in the state today.
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Miami: I feel these are the best candidates we've ever had run for president. My primary question is, which one is more likely to follow his conviction rather than political expediency? I never had much doubt that McCain, right or wrong, absolutely would follow his conviction. Now that it looks like Sen. Obama will have a potentially substantive win, will this provide the cover for him to get beyond the less-than-statesmenlike Reid and Pelosi -- who are even less liked (for good reason) than Bush -- and truly offer a vision beyond his party?
Dan Balz: If Senator Obama wins, one of his challenges will be managing the relationship with Democratic congressional leaders, who are likely to have even bigger majorities in the new Congress than they do now. Bill Clinton mortgaged his presidency to Democratic congressional leaders at the start of his presidency and regretted it. This is a different time but if he is president, that will be something to watch. Senator McCain, if he becomes president, will have to deal with Democrats to get things done. That alone seems to require giving ground on some things for the sake of results.
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Garfield, N.J.: A hundred thousand in Missouri. Realistically, how good an indicator is this that the candidate is doing well? Do we have any recent examples of losing campaigns that drew record crowds?
Dan Balz: Well, let's think back to the Pennsylvania primary. On the Friday night before the primary, Senator Obama drew about 30,000 in Philadelphia. He went on to lose that primary to Senator Clinton decisively. So crowds are not always the best indicators. They can tell you how passionate a particular candidate's supporters are, but they can't tell you about the tens of millions of people who never go to political rallies. Still, that was an impressive crowd.
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Fairfax, Va.: Does it seem that Powell broke new ground, or is he just joining the long list of other moderate Republicans to express distaste for the McCain campaign and the Palin selection (Brooks, Parker, Buckley, Will, etc.)?
Dan Balz: One big difference is that he actually endorsed Obama. Most of the others -- Buckely is certainly an exception -- have expressed dissatisfaction with the McCain campaign but haven't given Obama the kind of fulsome endorsement that Powell did. Also, Powell is a much, much better-known person, so he speaks with a megaphone.
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Nov. 5: What exactly do you guys do after the election is over?
Dan Balz: Here's a good one to end on. We sleep for about six months!
Truthfully, transition to a new president and a new administration means lots of work, starting on Nov. 5. So people will have only a little time to catch their breath.
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Wilmington, N.C.: I voted last Thursday and experienced the same crowd as in Jacksonville. Monitors who worked all day said it never let up. It feels good to be a part of it, especially given our poor track record.
Dan Balz: Here's another report, this one from North Carolina. Thanks.
We'll end on that note, with voters now streaming to the polls in states with early voting, or sending in their absentee ballots, or hearing from the two campaigns about making sure they show up on Election Day.
Thanks to everyone for participating. Have a great week!
Dan Balz
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 21, 2008
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The New York Times
October 19, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
WILL GUN-TOTTING, CHURCHGOING WHITE GUYS PULL THE LEVER FOR OBAMA?
BYLINE: By MATT BAI.
Matt Bai, who covers politics for the magazine, is the author of ''The Argument: Inside the Battle to Remake Democratic Politics.''
SECTION: Section MM; Column 0; Magazine Desk; Pg. 38
LENGTH: 8603 words
For a guy who just four years ago was running his first statewide campaign, Barack Obama has made startlingly few missteps as a presidential candidate. But the moment Obama would most like to take back now, if he could, was the one last April when, speaking to a small gathering of Bay Area contributors, he said that small-town voters in Pennsylvania and other states had grown ''bitter'' over lost jobs, which caused them to ''cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them.'' That comment, subsequently posted by a blogger for the Huffington Post, undercut one of the central premises of Obama's campaign, an argument he first floated in his famous 2004 convention address -- that he could somehow erode the tired distinctions between red states and blue ones and appeal to disaffected white men who had written off national Democrats as hopelessly elitist. Instead, in the weeks that followed, white working-class primary voters, not only in industrial states like Pennsylvania but also in rural states like Kentucky and West Virginia, rejected his candidacy by wide margins, and he staggered, wounded, toward the nomination.
''That was my biggest boneheaded move,'' Obama told me recently. We were sitting across from each other on his plane, the one with the big red, white and blue ''O'' on the tail, flying some 35,000 feet above Nebraska. ''How it was interpreted in the press was Obama talking to a bunch of wine-sipping San Francisco liberals with an anthropological view toward white working-class voters. And I was actually making the reverse point, clumsily, which is that these voters have a right to be frustrated because they've been ignored. And because Democrats haven't met them halfway on cultural issues, we've not been able to communicate to them effectively an economic agenda that would help broaden our coalition.''
Obama was wearing his classic starched white shirt (how many of those shirts does he have, exactly?), along with a tie the color of a robin's egg. One on one, he has a crisp and effortless conversational style; his answers are thoughtful, but you rarely glimpse the thought process itself, the internal calibrations that every politician is constantly making. The only outward sign that Obama is laboring over his formulations is the way he will often elongate the word ''and'' for several seconds, a processing hitch that enables him to preview in his own head what he is about to tell you, like one of those five-second delays the networks use so they can bleep out profanity.
''I mean, part of what I was trying to say to that group in San Francisco was, 'You guys need to stop thinking that issues like religion or guns are somehow wrong,' '' he continued. ''Because, in fact, if you've grown up and your dad went out and took you hunting, and that is part of your self-identity and provides you a sense of continuity and stability that is unavailable in your economic life, then that's going to be pretty important, and rightfully so. And if you're watching your community lose population and collapse but your church is still strong and the life of the community is centered around that, well then, you know, we'd better be paying attention to that.''
In a few minutes, Obama would arrive in Colorado for a campaign stop, followed by another in Nevada -- two critical states that neither of the previous two Democratic nominees, Al Gore and John Kerry, came all that close to winning, largely because of their abject failure to connect with white men, especially lower- and middle-class men in rural and exurban counties. A few weeks earlier, I watched Obama campaign in the coal country of Appalachian Virginia, where no one I talked to could remember ever seeing a Democratic nominee come through town. I asked Obama how he thought he could convey to these voters that he was not, in fact, an anthropological observer of the culture. Four years ago, Kerry, a man who was once actually pretty comfortable holding a semiautomatic weapon, donned his hunting gear and traipsed into the woods of Ohio, trailed by cameras, to shoot some geese. The stunt made him look absurd, like an investment banker at rock-'n'-roll fantasy camp.
''First,'' Obama said, ''you have to show up. I've been to Elko, Nev., now three times.''
''Elko?'' I asked twice, straining to hear him over the engine noise.
''E-L-K-O.'' He sounded vaguely annoyed, as if I had just confirmed something about the media he had long suspected. ''That, by the way, is the reason we got more delegates out of Nevada, even though we lost the popular vote there during the primary. We lost Las Vegas and Clark County, but we won handily in rural Nevada. And a lot of it just had to do with the fact that folks thought: Man, the guy is showing up. He's set up an office. He's doing real organizing. He's talking to people.
''No. 2 is how we talk about issues,'' Obama went on. ''To act like hunting, like somebody who wants firearms just doesn't get it -- that kind of condescension has to be purged from our vocabulary. And that's why that whole 'bittergate' episode was so bitter for me. It was like: Oh, this is exactly what I wanted to avoid. This is what for the last five or six years I've been trying to push away from.''
As we talked, consequential events were reshaping the world below. At that very moment, Republicans in Washington were scuttling a $700 billion emergency plan for Wall Street, causing the markets to hemorrhage more value in a single day, in terms of sheer dollar amounts, than at any time in American history and dragging the economy back into the center of the campaign -- precisely where John McCain and the Republicans didn't want it. And yet, what Obama and I were discussing, this cultural disconnect between Democrats and large swaths of white men, remained a lingering and crucial question. It now appeared that the only thing that could still threaten Obama's march to the presidency was the same resistance from these voters that had, at the last moment, dashed the dreams of both his Democratic predecessors. Gore and Kerry tried, somewhat dutifully, to prove their cultural affinity for regular white guys; when that didn't work, they tried to change the subject to policy platforms instead, hoping in vain that voters would just sort of forget about all that guns and church stuff. In both cases, that failure translated directly into defeat. According to exit polls in 2004, Kerry lost white men by a crushing 25-point margin.
Given the fact that he is not, in fact, a white male, Obama would seem to face an even-less-forgiving landscape among white-male voters. While voters overall give Obama the advantage over John McCain when asked which candidate is better equipped to navigate these tumultuous economic times, Gallup polls throughout the summer and into the fall consistently showed McCain with a double-digit lead among white men who haven't been to college.
And yet Obama has persevered, devoting far more time and money than either of the last two Democratic nominees on an effort to persuade working-class and rural white guys that he is not the elitist, alien figure they may be inclined to think he is. The Obama campaign has more than 50 state offices throughout Virginia, a state no Democrat has seriously contested since Obama was a teenager. In Indiana, there are 42 offices; in North Carolina, another 45.
Mathematically, Obama can probably win the election without winning any of these states -- or Nevada or Montana or any of the other conservative states where he has campaigned in the past several months. What he probably can't do, if he doesn't convert enough voters to throw at least a few traditionally red states into the blue column, is get beyond what he dismissively refers to as the ''50-plus-1'' governing model, the idea that a president need only represent 50 percent of the country (plus 1 additional vote) to command the office. From the start, Obama has aspired not simply to win but also to stand as a kind of generational break from the polarized era of the boomers, to become the first president in at least 20 years to claim anything more than the most fragile mandate for his agenda. Absent that, even if he wins, Obama could wake up on Nov. 5 as yet another president-elect of half the people, perched uncomfortably on the edge of an impassable cultural divide.
WHENLYNDON JOHNSONSIGNED the Civil Rights Act of 1964, he famously predicted that his party had just signed away the South for a generation to come. In truth, the outcome was more profound than Johnson could have imagined. The culture war, whose Bunker Hill was the campus quad of the 1960s, soon spread to just about every region of the country, where rural and working-class white voters, already anxious over economic change, recoiled at the vehement strain of antimilitary, antiestablishment liberalism that took hold of the Democratic Party in the era after Selma and Saigon. The effect, especially on the presidential level, was immediate and drastic. In the 32 years before Johnson made his pronouncement, Democrats controlled the White House for all but 8 of them, and only twice -- in 1948 and 1960 -- had the Democrat won by what could be considered a narrow margin. In the four decades since, only two Democrats have managed to get elected, and only one has claimed a majority of the popular vote. (This was Jimmy Carter, who eked out exactly 50.1 percent without winning a single state west of Texas.) By the turn of the century, almost completely driven from the South and West, Democratic presidential candidates had taken to focusing all their efforts on an ever-shrinking pool of coastal and industrial states.
Obama, though, has talked from the beginning about running a ''50-state'' campaign, and he has spent considerable time and money in more culturally conservative parts of the country where Democrats rarely, if ever, venture, from Elko and Appalachia to Billings, Mont., and Las Cruces, N.M. To a large extent, this reflects Obama's personal conviction about modern politics, which he first laid out in his 2004 convention speech when he talked about worshiping ''an awesome God in the blue states'' and having ''gay friends in the red states.'' He told me, when we talked, that Washington's us-versus-them divisions had made it impossible for any president to find solutions to a series of generational challenges, from Iraq to global climate change. ''If voters are similarly polarized and if they're seeing two different realities, a Sean Hannity reality and a Keith Olbermann reality, then we're not going to be able to get done the work we need to get done,'' Obama said.
It is also true, however, that a series of circumstances beyond his control have conspired to make a truly national campaign more feasible for Obama than for any Democrat since Carter ran in the dark days after Watergate. First, of course, there is the national sense of despair over the Bush era, which has made the president more of a uniter than he ever intended and which has enabled Democrats to get a hearing in parts of the country where they were being run off the land 10 years ago. Then there's the advent of the Internet as a veritable money vacuum, which has enabled Obama to raise more money than any Democrat in history (about $460 million, at last count), meaning he can afford to pour some resources into states he has only a remote chance of winning. Perhaps most important, though, Obama's campaign has also been able to take advantage of a drawn-out Democratic primary campaign that came through all 50 states before it was over -- a draining experience that nonetheless established networks of volunteers and newly registered Democratic voters in states that in any other year would have been overlooked. In three states -- Texas, Indiana and North Carolina -- more people voted in Democratic primaries this year than voted for Kerry on Election Day in 2004.
For Obama's political advisers, expanding the electoral map is not about making a philosophical statement; it is simply a strategic imperative. Presidential campaigns, after all, are about getting to 270 -- the minimum number of electoral votes needed to win. In relying on the same 20 or so winnable states over the past few elections, Democratic nominees have given themselves almost no margin for error. By contrast, Obama's campaign, in addition to fighting for the usual complement of about a dozen swing states, has shifted considerable resources into a group of states -- the list has, at one time or another, included Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota and Georgia -- that haven't been strongly contested for at least three elections, if not longer. (Alaska was on the list, too, until McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate.) The idea here is that the more states you put in play, the more permutations there are that lead to victory.
''If you expand the map, you improve your chances,'' David Axelrod, Obama's lead strategist, told me recently. ''We didn't want to be in that same dreary position where the entire election hinges on three states, and you stay up all night waiting to see who won them.''
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Obama starts with the same relatively safe 19 states (plus the District of Columbia) Kerry won in 2004, along with Iowa, which Gore won and where polls have shown Obama comfortably ahead. He could actually prevail without winning either of the two big perennial battleground states, Ohio and Florida, simply by winning Indiana by itself or by winning both New Mexico and Virginia. It is McCain, in fact, who, having earlier this month abandoned a foray into blue-collar Michigan, seems now to be facing the more restrictive map, betting on the notion that he can hold just about every reliably Republican state while also winning in battlegrounds like Florida and Ohio.
At times during these final months of the campaign, though, Obama's optimism about the impermanence of blue and red shading has run up against the hard reality that after 40 years of culturally divisive politics, colors don't easily bleed. Before the conventions, for instance, most polls in North Dakota showed McCain in front by only a few points. When I spoke to Byron Dorgan, the Democratic senator from North Dakota, last month, he sounded ecstatic about Obama's multiple trips to the state and the more than $400,000 the campaign had already dumped into ads there. ''I think it's the first time you've turned on a television set and seen a persuasion ad for a Democratic candidate,'' Dorgan said.
Not a week later, however, a new round of post-convention polls showed McCain opening up a double-digit lead in North Dakota, and the Obama campaign abruptly pulled its ads. Dorgan called me back. ''I do think this is going to come back to be a fairly close race in North Dakota, but I understand we need the resources in some of the other battleground states at this point,'' he said, sounding resigned. ''I just called to say, 'Never mind.' ''
THE ONE STATE THAT NO ONE expects Obama to surrender before Election Day is Virginia, which may be the most critical of what the Obama campaign labels its ''nontraditional'' battleground states, both symbolically and mathematically. Like North Dakota, Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee since Johnson beat Goldwater. (It was the only state of the Old South to go with Gerald Ford over Carter in 1976.) But the onset of the postindustrial economy has probably wrought more change on Virginia in the last 15 years or so than the state saw in the half-century before that. The new technology corridor running along I-66 in Northern Virginia, just across the Potomac River from Washington, is one of the nation's most vibrant, and the self-sustaining exurbs growing up around it have rapidly transformed horizons of farmland into expensive town-house clusters and strip plazas. (The area now boasts such high-end stores as Tiffany, Gucci and Hermes.) New exurbs in the central part of the state aren't far behind, populated by commuters who work in corporate offices in Richmond, the capital of the old Confederacy. Of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the country, 6 of them are in Virginia.
The influx of new residents -- many of them highly educated, some of them recent immigrants -- has created in Northern Virginia one of the nation's more reliable and rapidly expanding Democratic voting blocs. In the more socially conservative south and southwest of the state, however, where manufacturing towns once thrived and coal miners once worked the Appalachian seam, the population has been falling steadily as high-school graduates strike out in search of stable work elsewhere. Not surprisingly, the number of statewide voters identifying themselves as Democrats has risen sharply over the last two years, far outpacing Republican growth. The last two governors have been Democrats, and come January -- when Mark Warner, the former governor, is widely expected to replace John Warner (no relation) in Washington -- both of its senators will likely be Democrats, too. John Kerry lost the state by nine points in 2004, but that was a relatively small margin when you consider that he never bothered to contest it. The McCain campaign is concerned enough about holding onto Virginia, where polls this month showed Obama pulling ahead, that it recently opened 10 new offices there.
Any Democrat who wants a general blueprint for how to win Virginia need only look to election maps from the last few statewide elections, in which the voters narrowly installed Tim Kaine as governor and Jim Webb in the Senate. First, you have to pile up huge margins among liberal voters in the state's Democratic strongholds, most notably the inner suburbs of Northern Virginia, where Kaine captured more than 60 percent of the vote in his race. (In the southeastern part of the state, black voters are a major Democratic constituency; overall, African-Americans could account for close to a fifth of the statewide vote.) Next, you want to pull off wins in the exploding exurban counties in Northern Virginia and at least come close in the exurbs outside Richmond. Finally, in order to make the overall math work, you have to hold down your losses in the rural areas to the south and southwest. That probably means capturing at least 40 percent in the economically devastated, gun-loving countryside that borders North Carolina and Tennessee to the south and Kentucky and West Virginia to the west.
Obama should have at least a good shot at achieving the first two of those objectives. His campaign says it's on pace to register as many as 200,000 new voters in reliably liberal parts of the state, and most analysts expect black voters to come to the polls in higher numbers for Obama than they have for other Democrats. For turnout, the campaign is relying on some 10,000 volunteers in the state, who are being trained to work in ''neighborhood teams'' that go door to door registering and lobbying voters. Obama's campaign seems to have patterned its turnout effort after George W. Bush's 2004 campaign, which employed a fervent volunteer network to churn out the suburban votes that put Ohio, among other states, into the Republican column.
In the mostly white exurbs, meanwhile, the economy alone should guarantee Obama a better hearing than Kerry could have expected. Like their counterparts in other states, young Virginians began moving into the exurbs over the last decade in search of something closer to their parents' version of the American dream. In the cities and suburbs where many of them grew up, housing prices were rising so rapidly that they couldn't afford to live in the towns with large lots and great schools. Farther out, however, in the brand-new exurbs that used to be farming towns, they found lower taxes, sprawling malls and affordable mini-mansions with driveways big enough for a couple of S.U.V.'s. For some Virginians, the extended commuting time to Richmond or Washington was worth the extra quality of life.
Perhaps no one is feeling as disoriented by the economic reversal of the past few years as these exurban voters, whose paradises are fast becoming prisons. They're watching as the value of their stocks and homes plummets, even as the cost of filling up the tank and heating the house soars. Traffic congestion along the state's main arteries has become a potent political issue, but fixing the problem requires more tax dollars. L. Douglas Wilder, the former Virginia governor and now mayor of Richmond, has seen the desperation rise. ''They're saying, 'I'm working as hard as I've ever worked in my life, but I can't save any money and I have to cut back, so what's gone wrong here?' '' Wilder told me recently. ''People who think they had it made -- doctors, lawyers, engineers -- everybody is feeling the pinch.''
FOR A NATIONAL DEMOCRAT, the hardest part of the electoral formula is probably the last piece -- holding one's own in the sea of small towns in the southern and Appalachian regions of the state that are far more similar to the rest of the Deep South than they are to Virginia's northern counties. Voters here haven't known economic expansion in decades, and they seem to have decided long ago that neither party was especially serious about stopping the decline, or even knew how. There is a strong sense in these communities, and not unreasonably, of suffering endless condescension -- a feeling that urbane America has already written off the rural lifestyle as a relic or, worse, as a joke. For that reason (and this is actually the point Obama says he was trying to make in San Francisco), cultural issues matter far more in the rural areas than they do in the exurbs, because voters see those issues as a test of whether politicians respect their values or mock them -- a construct that Republican strategists have become expert at exploiting.
Democrats running for governor or the Senate can spend a lot more time shaking hands in these parts, working to distance themselves from the national party's smug image, than can a presidential candidate, who also has to carry all of the extra baggage of the party's stands on social issues -- especially if he happens to be the first black nominee of either party. It probably isn't encouraging for Obama that in this year's Virginia primary, which he won easily, Hillary Clinton nonetheless dismantled him in the rural southwest. In tiny Dickenson County, along the western border with Kentucky, Clinton received 1,491 votes to Obama's 210. Next door in Wise County, it was Clinton 2,310; Obama, 459.
Obama has responded to this challenge principally by doing precisely what he told me he had to do: he has shown up. The first thing he did as his party's presumptive nominee in June, two days after closing out the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana, was to get on a plane and come to Bristol, Va., on the Tennessee border. He has returned twice more since then to the southern part of the state, and Joe Biden recently headlined a mineworkers' rally there. Local Democrats told me that Obama's campaign office in the old manufacturing town of Danville was so unusual for a candidate of either party that its opening was treated almost as a curiosity, as if a smoldering meteor had smashed into the town green.
No Virginia Democrat knows more about how to win over white rural voters than Mark Warner, whose ''Virginia story'' is now legend for national Democrats. Running for governor in 2001, when Republicans had a virtual monopoly in Virginia, Warner visited the southern areas of the state dozens of times, promising to revive local economies by bringing broadband lines through the region and luring high-tech companies. He not only cut his losses in those remote counties; he carried many of them outright. His proudest achievement as governor, or at least the one he talks about with the most enthusiasm, came just weeks before the end of his term (Virginia is the last state in the union to limit its governors to one term), when he induced two large high-tech companies to open facilities in the tiny southwestern town of Lebanon, bringing more than 700 jobs with them.
When I asked Warner, who has campaigned with Obama, what Obama needed to say to earn the trust of rural Virginians, he suggested Obama spend less time talking about economic despair and more time reminding voters of the hopeful things happening in southern Virginia.
''Celebrate Lebanon,'' he said. ''Celebrate that we've got a place for your community in the 21st century.'' ''Change'' was a good slogan, Warner told me, and people surely wanted it, but you also had to give them a sense that you understood the challenges specific to their communities. ''I'd like to hear him talk more about infrastructure, about broadband,'' Warner said. ''I think he's still got to make the case that your kids shouldn't have to leave your hometown to find a world-class job.
''People make a judgment about whether you really care or not. Is it just a drive-by, or are you really going to invest?''
IF YOU WANT TO GET TO LEBANON, a town of about 3,200, the easiest way is to fly into the Tri-City Airport on the Tennessee side of the Appalachians, then drive about 45 minutes northeast through some of the most gorgeous hill country in America. The back road that leads to Lebanon High School is lined with trailer-size houses on the edge of collapse, their front porches buckling in the sun. But then, as you approach the school, you see a few neat rows of brand new town houses, with prices in the high $200,000s -- the unmistakable landscape of the new economy. Lebanon is slowly becoming a symbol of hope for towns all over the region that dream of turning southwestern Virginia, with its abundant land and cheap labor, into the next high-tech hub. Local counties have raised up a half-dozen ''shell buildings'' -- essentially empty warehouses already connected to sewers and broadband lines -- to attract businesses looking for ready-made space. Inspired by the influx of tech jobs, officials in the area have started what they call the Return to Roots program, in which they aggressively seek out qualified graduates who have moved away for other jobs and try to lure them back home.
Barack Obama came to Lebanon High for a town-hall meeting with voters on the Tuesday after Labor Day, marking the first time any presidential candidate stepped foot in the area since Jimmy Carter came to nearby Castlewood in 1976. The campaign made tickets available to its local offices a few days before the event, and a lot of the roughly 2,400 attendees waited in line to get them. As a result, most of the voters in the school gymnasium seemed to be committed Obama backers already.
The program opened with the validators. This is a critical part of Obama's small-town strategy -- getting respected surrogates to stand up and say that Obama is a guy you can trust. The first person on stage was Ralph Stanley, the 81-year-old legendary bluegrass musician, who was born in nearby Stratton and makes his home in Dickenson County. He unfolded a piece of paper and read, in a shaky voice: ''I want to endorse Barack Obama as the next president of the United States. Thank you very much!'' The gymnasium exploded. (When the candidate met Stanley backstage, Obama told him that he had some of Stanley's banjo music on his iPod. Stanley nodded appreciatively, but a few minutes later he turned to a friend and asked, ''What's an iPod?'')
Stanley was followed by Cecil Roberts, the white-bearded president of the mineworkers' union, who preached as if he were at a revival, putting Obama's early years into a framework that southwestern Virginians could understand. ''Moses was a community organizer!'' Roberts thundered. ''And yes, Jesus was a community organizer!'' Then came Rick Boucher, the owlish congressman who represents Lebanon and its surrounding counties in Washington. ''Senator Obama is a friend of coal and the thousands of jobs it brings to Southwestern Virginia,'' Boucher assured the crowd. In fact, he repeated this line -- ''Barack Obama is a friend of coal'' -- no less than five times in 10 minutes.
Obama finally bounded onstage to an ovation that rocked the bleachers. He delivered a newly sharpened version of his basic rally speech, pacing the stage as he spoke, his pitch rising as he punctuated each point in a long list of indictments against the Bush years and John McCain. He stressed his own American story -- the mother on food stamps, the grandfather who fought in ''Patton's army,'' the father-in-law who worked a shift job with multiple sclerosis and never missed a day. The speech wasn't appreciably different from one he would have given at an arena packed with 20,000 people in Philadelphia or St. Louis.
It was only after the speech, prompted by questions from the audience, that Obama tried to reassure the crowd -- without ever referring to the ''bitter'' comment, of course -- that he was not some San Francisco liberal who pitied rural people for their religiosity and their pastimes. One man wanted to know what Obama thought of those who looked down on Sarah Palin because she was evangelical. No doubt thinking of the persistent rumors still flying around the Internet that say he is a closet Muslim, Obama reiterated, for about the seven millionth time this year, that he, too, is a practicing Christian. ''This is a nation of believers,'' he said, ''and I'm one of them.''
A teenage girl asked Obama what he might do specifically for rural America. I found it odd that Obama had to be prompted to address this question, but he warmed to it immediately, ticking off a list of public investments that his administration could bring to the region: broadband lines, school financing, the development of biodiesel fuels. He talked about creating more jobs for local students, ''so when they graduate from college those kids can stay here and live in Lebanon instead of having to go and work someplace else.''
Having finished that thought, Obama suddenly straightened up, as if something else important had just occurred to him. ''One thing I want to make clear while we're on this topic of rural America,'' he said, looking around the gym. ''There are a lot of folks who come up to me and say, 'You know, Barack, I like your economic plan, and I'm tired of George Bush, but you know, I got my N.R.A. mailing, and I'm worried you're gonna take my gun away.' '' Obama likes to do this -- to momentarily inhabit the mind of some composite character and act out his side of the conversation -- and he was met with knowing chuckles.
''I just want to be absolutely clear, O.K.? I just don't want any misunderstanding when you all go home and you talk with your buddies, and they say, 'Oh, he wants to take my gun away.' You heard it here, and I'm on television, so everybody knows. I believe in the Second Amendment. I believe in people's lawful right to bear arms. I will not take your shotgun away. I will not take your rifle away. I won't take your handgun away.
''So if you want to find an excuse not to vote for me, don't use that one!'' Obama said, eliciting laughter and cheers from the crowd. ''It just ain't true!''
OBAMA ACHIEVED his main objective in Lebanon: he showed up where no modern Democratic nominee had before, taking on social issues and planting himself squarely in the mainstream, and he hit on the list of issues that Warner and others urged him to mention. When I caught up with Congressman Boucher not long after the event, he told me it had been ''terribly important.'' Boucher had recently commissioned a poll in his district, which he gave to the Obama campaign, and while he wouldn't tell me any of the specifics, he did volunteer that McCain was ''significantly ahead.'' Still, the poll showed an unusually high number of undecided voters -- perhaps not surprising given that in the Republican primary McCain lost badly to Mike Huckabee in the southwestern counties. ''People are not enthusiastic about McCain,'' he told me. ''They want to get to know Barack Obama better. They're waiting to be persuaded.
''The grapevine is the single most powerful form of communication in my district,'' Boucher continued. ''All those people in that gymnasium, I'll bet every one of them went out and told 10 people, 'Hey, he was terrific.' ''
Still, it occurred to me that during his appearance in Lebanon, Obama did little more than briefly nod to a series of local concerns, as if he had been carrying around a list that needed to be checked off before he got back on his plane and headed east to Norfolk. ''Keeping jobs at home'' was a great applause line, but Obama didn't betray any awareness of the novel public programs that might make that goal possible, like the shell buildings or the Return to Roots campaign. Far from celebrating Lebanon, as Warner suggested, Obama made only passing reference to the new jobs that were revitalizing the town, a success story that would seem to have justified his coming there in the first place. Obama mostly made the same general appeal he was making in more diverse and liberal parts of the country, with a few perfunctory detours along the way.
It is often said in politics that a candidate's strength is also his weakness. Obama's greatest asset as a candidate, the trait that has enabled him to overcome both a thin resume and the resistance of his own party's establishment, is his placidity. Even more than through his ability to give a rousing speech (plenty of other candidates, from Ted Kennedy to Howard Dean, could do that), Obama has differentiated himself from recent Democrats by conveying a sense of inner security that is highly unusual in a business of people who have chosen to spend every day asking people to love them. He does not seem like a candidate who's going to switch to earth tones in his middle age or who's going to start dressing up in camouflage to rediscover his inner Rambo. Obama is content to meet the world on his terms, and something about that inspires confidence.
And yet that same lack of pathetic neediness may in fact be a detriment when it comes to persuading voters who, culturally or ideologically, just aren't predisposed to like him. I once heard a friend of Obama's compare him with Bill Clinton this way: if Clinton sees you walking down the other side of the street, he immediately crosses over to shake your hand; if Obama sees you coming, he nods and waits for you to cross. That image returned to me as I watched Obama campaign in Lebanon. Clinton wouldn't have wanted to leave that gym until every last voter had been converted, even if that meant he had to memorize the scheduled sewer installation for every home in Russell County. Mark Warner, a similarly tenacious glad-hander, went to rural Virginia again and again because, deep down, he needed to change people's perceptions of who he was. Obama doesn't connect to the world that way, which is probably why his campaign has always preferred big rallies to hand-to-hand venues. Obama gives the impression that he's going to show up and make his case, and if you don't fall in love with him, well, he'll just have to pick up the pieces and go on.
In some other election year, that probably wouldn't have been enough to sway the subset of undecided voters who came to see Obama at Lebanon High. But this isn't any other election year. Bush's approval ratings are the lowest on record, the Republican nominee is an erstwhile foe of the N.R.A. and taxpayers are doling out loans to Wall Street while their own credit suddenly dries up. As this campaign's symbol of change (the word is all but tattooed on his forehead), Obama has become, in a sense, the default candidate -- the guy you choose if he can clear even a modest threshold of acceptability. Voters in places like Lebanon were not, as Obama joked, looking for excuses not to vote for him; they were looking for reasons they should. The uncommitted voters in the gymnasium might not have run back home to tell their friends how ''terrific'' Obama had been, but they may well have said that Obama didn't seem alien or condescending -- that he wasn't the contemptuous, tax-loving liberal they had heard so much about. And maybe, this time, that would be enough.
A WEEK AFTER OBAMA VISITED Lebanon and Norfolk, I went to see Jim Webb in his Capitol Hill office. Obama's campaign considers Webb, a war hero and former Republican, to be one of its most critical validators all over Virginia, specifically because he appeals to white men who are skeptical of Democrats in general. In fact, Webb's Scots-Irish family hails from coal country. Not long after he entered the Senate, he became embroiled in a mini-controversy when an aide accidentally carried one of Webb's favorite guns onto the Capitol grounds.
I was surprised, then, when Webb told me that while he was enthusiastic about Obama and would campaign for him, he did not intend to vouch for him on social issues. ''I believe that Barack Obama has the temperament and the intellect and the ideas to be president,'' Webb said. ''But I don't talk about his positions, and I don't defend his positions.'' When I commented that Webb wasn't where Obama was on gun rights (Obama favors what he calls some ''common sense'' restrictions), Webb cut me off. ''No, he's not where I am on guns,'' he said pointedly. It occurred to me that this was probably the kind of validation Obama could do without. (Webb appears to have softened his stance. A few weeks later, he decided to tape an ad promising voters in southwestern Virginia that Obama would not, in fact, confiscate their guns.)
Webb and I discussed the conventional wisdom taking hold -- in discussions not only about Virginia but about Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan as well -- that white men weren't breaking Obama's way mostly because he's black. Webb disagreed. When it came to white working-class and rural voters, Webb said, what mattered was whether Obama seemed to share the same basic small-town values. ''Does he understand me?'' Webb said. ''Can I trust him?''
At one point, when we were talking about the southwestern part of the state, Webb suggested, half seriously, that I should talk to his cousin Jimmy, who writes a column for The Lebanon News. (The number of Webb's cousins is something of a joke in Virginia; he's basically related in some way to the entire western part of the state.) So when I got back to my office, I tracked down cousin Jimmy, who, it turns out, is 78 years old and knows Virginia politics as well as he knows the old coins he sells to collectors. Jimmy Webb told me he was a strong Obama supporter, but he had a slightly different take on things than his famous cousin.
''When you get past Roanoke and out this way,'' he told me, ''in southwestern Virginia and eastern Tennessee, blacks are just not that popular. That's one of Obama's problems. I've had Democrats tell me that they're not even going to the polls.'' I heard much the same thing from Steve Cochran, the Democratic committee chairman in Montgomery County. (Believe it or not, Cochran, too, is somehow a distant cousin of Webb's.) ''I think if the people of southwestern Virginia had the opportunity to meet Barack Obama and see how intelligent he is and how genuine he is and how caring he is, there would be no question,'' Cochran said. ''But there is still this little bit of skepticism in Appalachian Virginia, as there is in a lot of other parts of the country, that this guy is still just a little bit not like me. I see people having a little trouble getting around that color barrier.''
How race affects Obama's effort to broaden the electoral map is the most persistent question surrounding his campaign -- and perhaps the least answerable. A bracing poll released last month by The Associated Press and Yahoo, in conjunction with Stanford University, concluded that Obama might be losing as many as six percentage points nationally because he's black. This was based on the finding that 40 percent of white Americans admitted to some negative views toward blacks. Such polls are frequently cited as proof that Obama would be walking away with the election were he more than half white.
And yet from all available data Obama isn't actually doing any worse with white men than the last two Democratic nominees, both of whom also ran at a time when the national climate offered considerable advantages -- Gore because the country had enjoyed a long period of prosperity, Kerry because of the failing war in Iraq. According to exit polls, Kerry lost the overall white vote by 17 points in 2004. Recent Gallup tracking polls, while somewhat erratic from week to week, have shown Obama running above that level; polling in early October had him down by only eight points among white voters. ''Obama's doing better than Gore or Kerry,'' says Dee Davis, who founded the Center for Rural Strategies in Whitesburg, Ky. ''And I think both of those guys were white the last time I looked at the paper.'' According to exit polls, Kerry received only 27 percent of the white-male vote in Virginia in 2004, a figure Obama is poised to surpass, according to a pollster from another campaign who is working in the state.
Perhaps the problem with this entire discussion about race is that it begins with the wrong question. Most polls focus on determining the prevalence of racial bias among white voters and whether it will affect their choices on Election Day. This may be the best way we have to measure the impact of race, but it is hardly revelatory; no one should be surprised to learn that racial stereotypes exist, particularly among lower-income and less-educated white men, or that such stereotypes affect the way voters see Obama. The more important question is not whether race is a factor in people's votes but whether it is a determinative factor -- that is, whether Obama's being black is the disqualifying fact for white voters that it might have been 20 years ago or whether it has now been reduced to one of those surmountable obstacles that any candidate has to overcome.
When Al Smith, New York's Democratic governor, ran for president in 1928, his Catholicism was a deal breaker. When John F. Kennedy ran in 1960, the prejudice remained, but it had lost its defining intensity. Kennedy felt sufficiently disadvantaged by his religion to address it in a major speech, just as Obama did on race during the primaries, but in the end, some sizable segment of Protestant voters who had concerns about pulling the lever for a Catholic did so anyway. In other words, it may be possible for racial prejudice to exist, as all the polls suggest it does, but for it to be only one significant influence among many, including voters' views on the economy and on McCain as an alternative.
There is another parallel in the Kennedy example that may prove relevant if Obama's strategists have their way. While Kennedy undoubtedly lost the votes of some Protestants who feared papal influence over the White House, their numbers were more than canceled out by the Catholic voters who came to the polls at a level never before seen. Obama's strategists accept that there will be some number of voters -- particularly white men -- who will reject Obama solely because he is black. But they are betting, first, that most of these voters wouldn't have voted for a Democrat in any event and, second, that the groundswell of black support for Obama will produce enough new African-American votes in a lot of states to offset them.
In 2004, 60 percent of voting-age black Americans went to the polls (compared with 67 percent of white voters), and about 88 percent of them voted for Kerry. Those are pretty impressive numbers, historically. And yet, with Obama on the ticket, it is not unrealistic to think that black turnout could increase by as many as five points and that Obama could increase the Democratic share of that vote to well over 90 percent. All of which means that if Obama can perform at least as well as Kerry among white men in some of the reliably red states he's trying to turn blue, most notably Virginia and North Carolina, race as an overall factor in the election could end up winning Obama more votes than it takes away.
WHEN I SAT WITH OBAMA on his plane, just three days after his first debate with McCain and not quite a week since the nation's credit system went into meltdown, the White House must have felt, finally, within his reach. National tracking polls showed him holding a consistent lead of four to six points for the first time in the campaign. In a string of familiar battleground states where Obama had been struggling to capitalize on anti-Bush sentiment and economic angst, a new round of polls showed him breaking out at last. He had finally put some distance between himself and McCain in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and he was on the verge of driving the Republicans from the latter state altogether. In Ohio and Florida, states that Bush carried twice, Obama appeared to have broken a stalemate and moved solidly into the lead. Such readings were merely snapshots, of course, subject to change at any moment, but even so, both campaigns seemed to sense that McCain's window for taking command of the campaign was beginning to close.
In Virginia, according to both private and public polling, the shift was especially pronounced. Several polls would soon show Obama pulling ahead of McCain by a significant margin, and two would have his lead in the state soaring into double digits. More staggering was the data concerning white voters and, specifically, men. According to a random telephone poll by SurveyUSA (though often derided by rival pollsters, the outfit compiled a surprisingly strong track record in the primaries), McCain was leading among men in Virginia by 10 points just after the conventions; by the beginning of October, Obama was leading by 11. Among white voters in the state overall, McCain's 22-point September lead had shrunk to single digits. In the rural Shenandoah Valley region, running along the state's western border and down into coal country, McCain had led by 24 points in September. Now he and Obama were tied.
And yet it seemed fair to question whether anything about this sudden movement actually validated Obama's central argument about American politics -- this notion that the cultural fault line in the electorate can somehow be bridged by a generational change in leadership -- or whether it spoke to some more immediate, more desperate impulse in a shaken electorate. The campaign had become pretty much a referendum on the current economic carnage and eight years of mostly bad news turning to worse, and for the moment, at least, the crisis on Wall Street appeared to have accomplished what Obama's strategists had been unable to do for months leading up to it: change the focus from Obama's readiness and supposed elitism to George W. Bush's myriad failures. In 2004, voters in the newly influential exurbs chose cultural identity over their concerns about war and the economy, and this choice cost John Kerry Ohio and the presidency; this year, it seemed increasingly likely that those voters might tip the other way -- and take the election with them.
OBAMA WOULD gladly take that outcome, of course. But it would not be the transformational victory he envisioned when he set out to run, the one in which white men in exurbs and rural counties wouldn't just grudgingly vote for a Democrat out of frustration with the alternative but actually come around to the idea that a Democrat can share their values. ''If I'm able to change this,'' he told me on his plane, meaning the cultural breach in our politics, ''then it's probably going to be most powerful after I'm elected, when you're no longer in the context of day-to-day battle, and I can prove it by what I do.''
I asked Obama if it was frustrating to have seen, throughout the campaign, so many polls that showed him trailing badly among white men with lower incomes or less education.
''It's not frustrating,'' Obama said, shaking his head. I found this believable; Obama seems almost impervious to frustration. ''There are a couple of things at work here. No. 1, let's face it -- I'm not a familiar type.'' He laughed. ''Which means it would be easier for me to deliver this message if I was from one of these places, right? I've got to deliver that message as a black guy from Hawaii named Barack Obama. So, admittedly, it's just unfamiliar.
''Which, by the way, is a different argument than race,'' Obama continued, pausing to make sure I understood. ''I'm not making an argument that the resistance is simply racial. It's more just that I'm different in all kinds of ways. I'm different even for black people. I went through similar stuff when I ran against Bobby Rush on the all-black South Side of Chicago.'' In that race, a Democratic primary for Congress in 2000, Rush, the black incumbent, handed Obama his first and only political defeat. ''It's like: 'Who is this guy? Where'd he come from?' So that's part of it.
''The second part of it is that I'm trying to do this in an environment where the media narrative is already set up in a certain way. So it's hard to not be dropped into a box.''
He reminded me that back in March, for instance, he accepted a spontaneous invitation from a voter in Altoona, Pa., to bowl a few frames, and it turned out Obama was basically a god-awful bowler. Some commentators gleefully used this deficiency to portray him as out of touch with the common man, in a John Kerry-windsurfing sort of way. (Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC, used the word ''prissy.'') To Obama, this brought home the bleak reality that, as a Democratic nominee, he was going to be typecast, fairly or not.
''I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,'' Obama told me. ''If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn't vote for me, right? Because the way I'm portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?
''I guess the point I'm making,'' he went on, ''is that there is an entire industry now, an entire apparatus, designed to perpetuate this cultural schism, and it's powerful. People want to know that you're fighting for them, that you get them. And I actually think I do. But you know, if people are just seeing me in sound bites, they're not going to discover that. That's why I say that some of that may have to happen after the election, when they get to know you.''
Hearing him say this a second time, it seemed to me a remarkable admission -- if not a retreat from his driving vision, then at least a deferral. Normally, in political campaigns, you hope people get to know you and then decide to vote for you; Obama now believed that perhaps only the inverse was possible. Once, he might have thought that if he could only win a bunch of red states and pile up 350 electoral votes, he could obliterate the red-blue paralysis of the last decade and wield his mandate like a machete against the culture warriors in Washington. Now, it seemed, he understood that even a Reaganesque triumph wouldn't suddenly erase the effect of 40 years of exploiting peoples' darkest fears or ignoring their legitimate anxieties, the twisted and bipartisan legacy of a lost political generation. If he won, Obama would likely start out as a 50-plus-1 president, no matter what the map had in store. And then the campaign would begin again.
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After midnight at an automotive plant in Indianapolis in May as a late shift ends. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES) (MM42-43)
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The New York Times
October 19, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
He Just Can't Quit W
BYLINE: By FRANK RICH
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 13
LENGTH: 1538 words
OLD Mr. Straight Talk has become so shaky a speaker that when he does talk straight, it's startling. On Wednesday night, John McCain mustered exactly one such moment of clarity: ''Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.''
Thanks largely to this line, McCain's remaining base in the political press graded his last debate performance his best. The public, not so much. As with the previous debates, everypollfound Barack Obama the winner, this time by as much as two-to-one ratios. Obama even swept the focus group convened by the G.O.P. pollster Frank Luntz in the once-impregnable McCain bunker of Fox News.
Perhaps voters were unimpressed by McCain's big moment because they can figure out the obvious rejoinder: Why didn't McCain run against President Bush four years ago -- as he had four years before that? Instead McCain campaigned for Bush's re-election, cheered for Bush policies he once opposed and helped lower himself and America into the pit where we find ourselves today.
The day after the debate, McCain put up a new ad trying yet again to shake the president. ''The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they?'' he asks, as if he were an innocent bystander the entire time. But no matter what McCain says or does, he still can't quit the guy. Heading from a Midtown hotel to a fund-raiser the night before facing Obama onstage on Long Island last week, the McCain motorcade lined up right next to the New York red-carpet premiere of Oliver Stone's ''W.'' A black cat would have been a better omen.
The election isn't over, but there remain only three discernible, if highly unlikely, paths to a McCain victory. A theoretically mammoth wave of racism, incessantly anticipated by the press, could materialize in voting booths on Nov. 4. Or newly registered young and black voters could fail to show up. Or McCain could at long last make good on his most persistent promise: follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell and, once there, strangle him with his own bare hands on ''Hannity & Colmes.''
Even Republicans are rapidly bailing on a McCain resuscitation. It's a metaphor for the party's collapse that on the day of the final debate both Nancy Reagan and Dick Cheney checked into hospitals. Conservatives have already moved past denial to anger on the Kubler-Ross scale of grief. They are not waiting for votes to be counted before carrying out their first round of Stalinist purges. William F. Buckley's son Christopher was banished from National Review for endorsing Obama. Next thing you know, there will be a fatwa on that McCain-bashing lefty, George Will.
As the G.O.P.'s long night of the long knives begins, myths are already setting in among the right's storm troops and the punditocracy alike as to what went wrong. And chief among them are the twin curses of Bush and the ''headwinds'' of the economy. No Republican can win if the party's incumbent president is less popular than dirt, we keep being told, or if a looming Great Depression 2 is Issue No. 1.
This is an excuse, not an explanation. It absolves McCain of much of the blame and denies Obama much of the credit for their campaigns. It arouses pity for McCain when he deserves none. It rewrites history.
Bush's impact on the next Republican presidential candidate did not have to be so devastating. McCain isn't, as he and his defenders keep protesting, a passive martyr to a catastrophic administration. He could have made separating himself from Bush the brave, central and even conservative focus of his campaign. Far from doing that, he embraced the Bush ethos -- if not the incredible shrinking man himself -- more tightly than ever. The candidate who believes in ''country first'' decided to put himself first and sell out his principles. That ignoble decision is what accounts for both the McCain campaign's failures and its sleaze. It's a decision McCain made on his own and for which he has yet to assume responsibility.
Though it seems a distant memory now, McCain was a maverick once. He did defy Bush on serious matters including torture, climate change and the over-the-top tax cuts that bankrupted a government at war and led to the largest income inequality in America since the 1930s. But it isn't just his flip-flopping on some of these and other issues that turned him into a Bush acolyte. The full measure of McCain's betrayal of his own integrity cannot even be found in that Senate voting record -- 90 percent in lockstep with the president -- that Obama keeps throwing in his face.
The Bushian ethos that McCain embraced, as codified by Karl Rove, is larger than any particular vote or policy. Indeed, by definition that ethos is opposed to the entire idea of policy. The whole point of the Bush-Rove way of doing business is that principles, coherent governance and even ideology must always be sacrificed for political expediency, no matter the cost to the public good.
Like McCain now, Bush campaigned in 2000 as a practical problem-solver who could ''work across the partisan divide,'' as he put it in his first debate with Al Gore. He had no strong views on any domestic or foreign issue, except taxes and education. Only after he entered the White House did we learn his sole passion: getting and keeping power. That imperative, not the country, would always come first.
One journalist who detected this modus operandi early was Ron Suskind, who, writing for Esquire in January 2003, induced John DiIulio, the disillusioned chief of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives, to tell all. ''There is no precedent in any modern White House for what is going on in this one: a complete lack of a policy apparatus,'' DiIulio said. ''What you've got is everything -- and I mean everything -- being run by the political arm. It's the reign of the Mayberry Machiavellis.''
If politics strongarm everything, you end up with the rampant cronyism, nonexistent long-term planning and abrupt, partisan policy improvisations that fed the calamities of Iraq, Katrina and the economic meltdown. Incredibly, McCain has nakedly endorsed the Bush-Rove brand of governance in his own campaign by assembling his personal set of lobbyist cronies and Roveoperatives to run it. They have not only entangled him in a welter ofconflicts of interest, but they've furthered cynical political stunts like the elevation of Sarah Palin. At least Bush and Rove didn't try to put an unqualified hack like, say, Alberto Gonzales half a heartbeat away from the presidency.
As if the Palin pick weren't damning enough, McCain and his team responded to the financial panic by offering their own panicky simulation of the Bush style of crisis management in real time. Fire the S.E.C. chairman and replace him with Andrew Cuomo! Convene a 9/11 commission to save Wall Street! Don't bail out A.I.G.! Do bail out A.I.G.! Reacting to polls and the short-term dictates of 24-hour news cycles, McCain offered asmanyeconomic-policyrebootsin amonth as Bush offered ''Plans for Victory'' during the first three years of the Iraq war.
Now McCain is trying to distract us from his humiliating managerial ineptitude by cranking up the politics of fear -- another trademark Bush-Rove strategy. But the McCain camp's quixotic effort to turn an ''old washed-up terrorist'' into a wedge issue as divisive as same-sex marriage is too little, too late and too tone-deaf at a time when Americans are suffering too much to indulge in 1960s culture wars. Voters want policies that might actually work rather than another pandering, cynical leader who operates mainly on the basis of his ''gut'' and political self-interest.
The former Bush speechwriter David Frum has facetiously written that McCain could be rescued by ''a 5,000-point rise in the Dow and a 20 percent jump in home prices.'' But the economy, stupid, can't be blamed for McCain's own failures, any more than Bush can be. Even before the housing bubble burst and Wall Street tumbled, voters could see that the seething, impulsive nominee isn't temperamentally fit to be president.
That's where the debates have come in. There may have been none of those knockout blows the press craves, but the accretional effect has been to teach the public that McCain isn't steady enough to run the country even if the economy were sound, and that Obama just might be.
In Debate No. 1, you could put the volume on mute and see what has proved to be the lasting impressions of both candidates start to firm up. In Debate No. 2, McCain set the concrete: he re-enacted the troubling psychological cartography of his campaign ''suspension'' by wandering around the stage like a half-dotty uncle vainly trying to flee his caregiver. After the sneering and eye-rolling of McCain's ''best'' debate on Wednesday, CNN's poll found the ever-serene Obama swamping him on ''likeability,'' 70 to 22 percent.
At least McCain had half a point on Wednesday night when he said, ''I am not President Bush.'' What he has offered his country this year is an older, crankier, more unsteady version of Bush. Tragically, he can no sooner escape our despised president than he can escape himself.
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October 19, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Proof Pudding
BYLINE: By WILLIAM SAFIRE.
Send comments and suggestions to: safireonlangauge@nytimes.com
SECTION: Section MM; Column 0; Magazine Desk; ON LANGUAGE; Pg. 16
LENGTH: 858 words
Seeing is not always believing.
Gwen Ifill of PBS, my former Times colleague, who has a book centering on Barack Obama and other rising black political leaders due to come out on Inauguration Day, kept her cool when her impartiality was questioned as she was about to be the moderator of the Palin-Biden debate. Her reaction was expressed in these words: ''The proof is in the pudding. They can watch the debate.'' And sure enough, she played the moderating role commendably straight.
But the ''pudding'' -- the debate -- was not what supplied the proof. Ifill, like most who use that ''old saying,'' shortened it in a way that leached out its historic meaning. The saying is not ''the proof is in the pudding,'' but ''the proof of the pudding is in the eating.'' Same thing, no?
No. The first dispute over this saying is in its coinage. The Oxford Dictionary of Quotations says only that it dates from the ''early 14th century,'' and the backup provided me by Oxford's Jesse Sheidlower cites King Alisaunder around 1300 writing ''Jt is ywrite that every thing Hymself sheweth in the tastyng.'' (See? You can read Middle English. But no puddyng.) The Oxford English Dictionary cites William Camden's ''Remains Concerning Britain,'' dated 1605: ''All the proof of a pudding is in the eating.'' Bartlett's Quotations, 17th edition, however, cites Miguel de Cervantes's novel ''Don Quixote,'' first published that same year. That was a later English translation; Cervantes's phrase in the Spanish original means ''you will see it when you go to fry the eggs.'' I'll let these magisterial sources fight it out, but apparently this phrase, in more than one language, was in the air about four centuries ago, and all agree that in the eating was in the quotation.
Why am I burdening you with this arcana? The proof, better defined as ''test,'' is not in the pudding, which could be delicious or fattening or themeless; rather, the judgment is in the mind of the person conducting the test -- in the eating. As Ifill concluded, ''Watch the debate'' and then it's up to you to decide what the test proves. That was her substitute for ''is in the eating.''
In The Daily Telegraph of London in 2004, Michael Quinion of worldwidewords.org took on this tasty subject. ''The principal trouble with 'the proof is in the pudding' is that it makes no sense,'' Quinion, a leading British word maven, wrote. ''The full proverb is 'the proof of the pudding is in the eating' and the word 'proof' has the sense of 'test.' The proverb literally says that you won't know whether the food has been cooked properly until you try it. Or, putting it figuratively, don't assume that something is in order or believe what you are told, but judge the matter by testing it; it's much the same philosophy as 'seeing is believing.' ''
See what you miss when you chop off the end of an adage? I will allude to the contrast of literally (''exact, verbatim'') and figuratively (''metaphorical, symbolic'') toward the end of this column, but first to Quinion's reference to the related seeing is believing. This was coined in 1609 by a student at Cambridge around the time Cervantes was writing ''al freir de los huevos lo vera,'' ''you will see it when you go to fry the eggs.'' The seeing-is-believing proverb was effectively undermined by a scene in the 1933 movie ''Duck Soup'' in which Chico Marx, disguised in bedclothes and a mustache as Groucho, demands of Margaret Dumont, ''Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?''
Verbal Tics
A tic is a frequent minor muscular spasm, usually of the eyelid or cheek, sometimes accentuated at moments of tension.
A verbal tic is a word or phrase used frequently by a speaker who may be unconscious of its repetition but is noticed by the audience. It is a figurative tic, not a literal one.
John McCain's tic was my friends, interjected into many of his ad-lib sentences. Alerted to its repetition in this space last month (and the history of the salutation's popularization by F.D.R.), he cut down on its overuse.
Obama's tic was distraction, his word chosen to brush aside any criticism, which he also has reduced since the device was well remarked. As the days of campaigning dwindle down to a precious few, the refutation that springs most often to his lips begins with ''I've got news for'' (whomever, usually McCain), which has been magnified in his commercials to the point that McCain, in the campaign's second TV debate, used it himself.
Joe Biden's tic is the adverb literally. After observation here and elsewhere of his undue reliance on the intensifier, he clapped his hand over his mouth -- figuratively speaking -- and has literally, if not radically, reduced its usage. (Biden's legendary verbosity recalls the self-mocking line of Hubert Humphrey, also a speaker who went on and on, who said, ''I'm like the little boy who learned how to spell 'banana' but never knew when to stop.'')
Sarah Palin's repeated Americanism does not qualify as a verbal tic because she uses it consciously, along with a deliberate, nonspasmodic wink. Now that it has been widely called to her attention, is she likely to continue to use it? ''You betcha!''
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October 19, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
A Hale Chief? Better Check Up on That.
BYLINE: Robert Dallek
SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B03
LENGTH: 1379 words
The American public seems pretty sure that it knows everything it needs to know about whether John McCain and Barack Obama are healthy enough to be president. I'm not. And whenever I think about whether both men are fit to serve, physically speaking, I think about the sinking feeling I had one lovely spring afternoon in 2002 when an archivist at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library wheeled out the cartload of files showing how badly we had all been deceived about JFK's health.
The secret details of Kennedy's medical history were buried in 10 beat-up old cartons of records the library had held for 40 years. Past requests for access to these materials had all been refused by a committee of loyalists that included one of JFK's closest advisers, speechwriter Ted Sorensen. To my surprise, the committee had given me the chance to read the files; I had to agree not to photocopy them but was free to take notes or read passages into a tape recorder. Now I -- along with a physician friend, Jeffrey Kelman -- felt as if I were breaching a wall of secrecy. Here were not the usual neat boxes of presidential records, preserved in red-blue-and-silver-trimmed containers, but musty cardboard cartons that seemed to have sat untouched in some corner of the library since Janet Travell, one of Kennedy's physicians, had given them to the library after JFK's assassination in November 1963.
Between May 1955 and October 1957, Kennedy had been hospitalized nine times for a total of 44 days, including one 19-day period and two week-long stretches. Despite his public image of "vigah," as his accent rendered it, he suffered from bouts of colitis, accompanied by abdominal pain, diarrhea and dehydration; agony in his back triggered by osteoporosis of the lumbar spine; prostatitis, marked by severe pain and urinary infections; and Addison's disease, a form of adrenal insufficiency. Some of his difficulties, such as his back pain and Addison's, were open secrets among the press corps during his 1960 run for the White House, but the extent and severity of his problems -- to say nothing of the promiscuous variety of medications and doctors he relied upon to maintain his health -- had remained undisclosed. That's largely because the Kennedy campaign made every effort to hide his health problems -- obviously convinced that these disclosures, combined with his youth and Catholicism, would sink him.
Kennedy was following in a little-known but troubling tradition in American politics -- and one we should remember when we assume that McCain and Obama have told us everything we need to know. Since that day at the Kennedy library, I have been advocating the full disclosure of all presidential candidates' medical histories, physical and psychological, in no small measure because the Kennedy campaign's deceptions were in line with the deceits or shadings offered by Woodrow Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt during their own presidential bids.
Unbeknownst to the public, Wilson had suffered several small strokes before he ran in 1912 and continued to suffer them while in office; they proved to be preludes to a massive stroke in September 1919 that left him with a paralyzed left arm and leg and limited cognitive function. He could not stay alert for sustained periods of time or keep anything resembling a normal presidential work schedule. But the White House hid, as best it could, the extent of the president's incapacity from the public. Even though Wilson still had 18 months remaining in his term, which was being dominated by an economic recession and widespread fears of radicalism provoked by the Bolshevik revolution in Russia, the press, foolishly, deferred to the president's desire for privacy. White House subordinates declined to reveal the truth about the president's condition -- an amazing display of recklessness.
The public did not fully understand how badly Roosevelt's health was failing when he ran for a fourth term in 1944. He died the following April, during the waning months of World War II, of a cerebral hemorrhage brought on by arteriosclerosis. When Winston Churchill's physician saw FDR at Yalta in February 1945, the British doctor predicted that the president would be dead in a matter of months. After his death, shocked Americans wondered whether he should have run again in 1944 and whether he had performed as effectively as he might have at the Yalta conference with Stalin.
If Wilson, Roosevelt and Kennedy had fully disclosed their health problems, it might have cost them the Oval Office. Wilson would have been pressured to resign, something he considered doing in January 1920, and turn the presidency over to his vice president, former Indiana governor Thomas R. Marshall. Wilson's and his closest advisers' decision to keep the president's disability secret was an undemocratic abuse of presidential power.
If FDR and JFK had allowed the public to know about their own health problems in 1944 and 1960, respectively, they might well have lost. Then again, Roosevelt's hold over the electorate remained considerable, so he might have prevailed. And if JFK had leveled with the public about the pain he bore, he might have been seen as heroic for achieving so much despite his suffering.
But such calculations are beside the point, then and now. Politicians' political problems are their own. Their health problems belong to all of us, and if candidates don't like that, they need not run for president. It was and is the public's right to have the fullest possible information about a potential president's physical condition. If you want to be the most powerful person in the world, you will also have to be one of the least private. Voters deserve to know the full picture -- no ifs, ands or buts.
Those who squirm at this standard often point to the examples of Abraham Lincoln and Winston Churchill, both of whom suffered from depression, and argue that these titans might never have taken office if they had offered full disclosure of their emotional struggles. I do not take so dim a view of the electorate and believe that American and British voters would still have recognized their greatness. Democracy rests on informed decision-making, and I see no decent argument for secrecy -- especially if we may be passing the world's largest nuclear arsenal into ailing hands.
So on Oct. 3, when I read a full-page ad in the New York Times by 2,768 medical doctors calling on John McCain to release fully his health records to the public, I cheered. The voters' judgments should rest on the fullest possible information about the presidential candidates' potential performance in office. The fact that McCain could be our oldest elected president, a 72-year-old man with a history of skin cancer and a largely untested running mate, makes it all the more urgent that we know more about his health before voting. It's admirable that he shared 1,173 pages of his medical records with a small number of reporters during a three-hour period in May. But the limits the McCain campaign imposed on the review of those materials -- the eyebrow-raising time constraints, the exclusion of a New York Times reporter with an M.D. from the pool, the refusal to permit photocopying -- raise questions about what medical experts might find if given unrestricted access.
The requirement for full disclosure should apply to Barack Obama as well. His campaign has released only a single page of information about his health history. He is just 47 and seemingly in excellent health, but nobody is immune from illnesses that voters might want to take account of in November. And remember, we all thought JFK was the picture of youthful vigor, too.
Advances in modern medicine and in public understanding of diseases suggest that someone with a history of cancer or some other life-threatening illness need not be seen as barred from serving as president. But in an era when presidents shoulder such staggering responsibilities, voters in the United States -- and people around the world -- are entitled to know as much as possible about the person who will have so much to say about all our lives and futures.
rdallek@aol.com
Robert Dallek is the author of "An Unfinished Life: John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963." His latest book is "Harry S. Truman."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Harold Valentine -- Associated Press; The picture of health: Back pain forced President Kennedy to use an Air Force lift to board his plane. Voters never knew the extent of his ailments.
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The Washington Post
October 19, 2008 Sunday
Correction Appended
Regional Edition
Economic Downturn Sidelines Donors to '527' Groups
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A09
LENGTH: 1158 words
The recent collapse on Wall Street appears to have found another victim: the independent political groups aiming to make an impact on the 2008 elections.
Expected to be a force in the final weeks of the presidential race, outside groups and the pointed advertising they brought to the airwaves in recent campaigns are barely evident this year. Political operatives say the fact that many wealthy potential donors have shied away from investing in efforts such as the infamous Swift Boat Veterans for Truth is that they are simply too busy trying to salvage their own financial portfolios.
"After the [GOP] convention, things looked good," said Phil Musser, a Republican fundraising consultant. "Major donors interested in issue advocacy were tuned in, political juices were flowing, polling looked good, and then, blammo! Most donors lost 20 or 30 percent of their net worth in eight days. With few exceptions, that pretty well shut down the money discussion for a lot of folks."
Four years ago, groups operating outside the party structure invested more than $130 million in television commercials, often carrying the kind of negative messages that the candidates themselves wished to avoid. This year, total spending by such groups is at about $17 million so far, with no single organization playing a dominant role, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group.
Their decline was underway before turmoil swept through the markets. Both Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) openly discouraged their supporters from backing such groups early on in the campaign. They considered the efforts, often waged by entities known as 527s because of their tax designation, as running counter to the reformist images both candidates were attempting to burnish.
Several major players from past years announced that they would not participate this time around. Most notable among them was T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman who helped back the Swift Boat Veterans ads targeting Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) four years ago.
The legal climate has also changed. After the 2004 campaign, the Federal Election Commission issued an unprecedented $2.6 million in fines against seven 527 groups. This year, lawyers advising the donors to those groups warned that the FEC fines could be a precursor to action by the Justice Department.
But fundraising consultants say the economic collapse ultimately slammed the door. One of the groups expected to emerge as a major player, the conservative Freedom's Watch, hinted that it could spend as much as $200 million on congressional races around the country.
Freedom's Watch launched with a splash, announcing an advisory board that included figures such as billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and former Bush White House press secretary Ari Fleischer. A year ago, the group launched the first round of what it said would become a steadily escalating barrage of ads with a $15 million campaign supporting President Bush's Iraq war strategy.
"We're forming a never-ending campaign," Bradley Blakeman, a former White House aide who was among the founders, said at the time. "We're taking on generational issues that are not decided at the ballot box."
An early infusion of donations fueled $30 million in expenditures, including ads seeking to influence several congressional special elections. But as November approached, several of the moguls who had been supporting the group became distracted by their own financial distress.
Perhaps most notable among them was Adelson. As his company, Las Vegas Sands, struggled through steep September declines, Adelson saw $4 billion of his personal fortune evaporate as a result of the slumping national economy, and that was before the slow-motion stock market crash. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that between Aug. 29 and Oct. 1, Adelson suffered the steepest drop among those who lost $1 billion or more during the credit crisis.
A spokesman for Adelson, Ron Reese, said "Mr. Adelson does not comment on his political activity."
Another Freedom's Watch patron, New York financier Paul Singer, also stepped back his involvement. His firm, Elliott Associates, had minor exposure to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, leading to speculation among some Republican fundraisers that the economic crisis was to blame. Singer helped raise more than $1 million for Republicans in the current election cycle and was viewed as an important potential resource among those trying to find support for independent groups.
A spokesman for Singer declined to comment on his political activity this year but noted that his hedge fund as of Sept. 30 was up 6 percent for the year.
One Freedom's Watch adviser familiar with appeals to Singer said efforts to enlist his eleventh-hour support have gone unanswered. "Understandably," said the adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because discussions with donors are confidential. "The guy's got a business to worry about."
Senior staff members at Freedom's Watch said they consider their efforts in several key House and Senate races to be a significant first step. "We have put out $30 million in expenditures, and that's nothing to sneeze at," said Ed Patru, the group's spokesman. "After Election Day, we'll measure our success based on the impact we've had on the issues that are important to us."
The slowdown in giving appears to have had a disproportionate impact on Republicans. Obama holds an enormous money advantage in the closing weeks of the campaign. His ads have been bolstered by mail and phone-bank efforts largely financed by labor unions. The AFL-CIO alone has directed more than $50 million to persuade its members to support Obama and other Democrats.
Another major source of support for Democrats has come from MoveOn.org, which in the past had raised its money almost entirely from wealthy donors. In this cycle, the group shifted its approach, using its enormous e-mail list to raise "hard money" -- direct donations that are within legal limits and reported to the FEC. "Despite the much ballyhooed chill on 527s, there are a lot of groups with hard-money capacity," said Tom Matzzie, a Democratic operative who previously served as Washington director for MoveOn. "There's less hard money on the right."
The outside group that has spent the most on ads this cycle is the American Issues Project, the creation of another Swift Boat Veterans patron, Texas billionaire Harry Simmons. When the group surfaced, it announced $2.6 million in ads, including the first television spot linking Obama to the controversial Vietnam-War-era radical William Ayers. But the effort has tailed off in recent days.
"I don't get the impression that these guys have a ton of money," said Tracey, the media analyst. "I think it's just an unwillingness for people to plunk down big checks right now. I don't know if that money's going to show up in the next two weeks or if it's pretty much over at this point."
LOAD-DATE: October 19, 2008
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CORRECTION-DATE: October 24, 2008
CORRECTION: · An Oct. 19 A-section article incorrectly described the amount of financing MoveOn.org has received from wealthy donors in past years. Wealthy donors accounted for a modest portion of MoveOn.org's budget.
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The New York Times
October 18, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Last-Minute Mischief
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 594 words
All presidents indulge in end-of-the-term environmental rule-making, partly to tie up bureaucratic loose ends but mainly to lock in policies that their successor will be hard pressed to reverse.
President Bill Clinton's midnight regulations were mostly good, including a rule protecting 60 million acres of national forests from road-building and most commercial development. Not surprisingly, most of President Bush's proposals are not.
Exhibit A is a set of six resource management plans covering 11 million acres of federal land in Utah. They would open millions of acres to oil and gas drilling and off-road vehicles, risking priceless cultural artifacts and some of the most breathtaking open spaces in America. The plans, each more than 1,000 pages, were dumped on an unsuspecting public in the last few weeks by the Bureau of Land Management.
The bureau claims that it wasn't trying to pull a fast one and that drafts were available months ago. But the final documents are what count. The public now has only a few short weeks to register objections before the secretary of the interior makes them final.
Why the rush? The agency says it had to wrap things up before it ran out of planning money. What we are really seeing, though, is the last gasp of the Cheney drill-now, drill-everywhere energy strategy; one last favor to the oil and gas drillers and the off-road vehicle enthusiasts before a more conservation-minded president (both Senators Barack Obama and John McCain have far better records than Mr. Bush) comes to town.
Environmentalists are also suspicious of the Interior Department's recent proposal to revoke a longstanding if rarely used regulation that gives Congress and the interior secretary emergency powers to protect public lands when commercial development seems to pose immediate environmental dangers.
Dirk Kempthorne, the interior secretary, decided that the rule was unnecessary after Representative Raul Grijalva of Arizona and about 20 other members of the House Natural Resources Committee ordered him to withdraw about 1 million acres near the Grand Canyon from new uranium mining claims to give officials time to assess potential damage to the air and water.
Arguing that the committee did not have a quorum and that he had other means of guarding against damage, Mr. Kempthorne not only refused to obey the committee's order but proposed to rescind the departmental rule requiring him to obey it. The public has been given 15 days to comment, after which Mr. Kempthorne will be free to jettison the rule.
Mr. Kempthorne is also pressing ahead with plans to scale back important protections required by the Endangered Species Act by eliminating some mandatory scientific reviews by the Fish and Wildlife Service of federal projects that could threaten imperiled animals and plants.
The new rule -- which could be made final at any moment -- would allow projects likes roads, bridges and dams to proceed without review if the agency in charge decides they would cause no environmental harm. The National Audubon Society and other groups have compiled an extensive list of cases in which the agencies misjudged the threat and Fish and Wildlife Service scientists had to intervene to protect the species.
Some of the administration's recent regulations have been helpful -- one tightening pollution controls on small engines like lawnmowers, another tightening lead emissions. But others could cause serious and lasting damage. And there are still three nerve-racking months to go before Mr. Bush leaves office.
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The New York Times
October 18, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
NEARING RECORD, OBAMA AD EFFORT SWAMPS McCAIN
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1366 words
DATELINE: PHILADELPHIA
Senator Barack Obama is days away from breaking the advertising spending record set by President Bush in the general election four years ago, having unleashed an advertising campaign of a scale and complexity unrivaled in the television era.
With advertisements running repeatedly day and night, on local stations and on the major broadcast networks, on niche cable networks and even on video games and his own dedicated satellite channels, Mr. Obama is now outadvertising Senator John McCain nationwide by a ratio of at least four to one, according to CMAG, a service that monitors political advertising. That difference is even larger in several closely contested states.
The huge gap has been made possible by Mr. Obama's decision to opt out of the federal campaign finance system, which gives presidential nominees $84 million in public money and prohibits them from spending any amount above that from their party convention to Election Day. Mr. McCain is participating in the system. Mr. Obama, who at one point promised to participate in it as well, is expected to announce in the next few days that he raised more than $100 million in September, a figure that would shatter fund-raising records.
''This is uncharted territory,'' said Kenneth M. Goldstein, the director of the Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin. ''We've certainly seen heavy advertising battles before. But we've never seen in a presidential race one side having such a lopsided advantage.''
While Mr. Obama has held a spending advantage throughout the general election campaign, his television dominance has become most apparent in the last few weeks. He has gone on a buying binge of television time that has allowed him to swamp Mr. McCain's campaign with concurrent lines of positive and negative messages. Mr. Obama's advertisements come as Republicans have begun a blitz of automated telephone calls attacking him.
The Obama campaign's advertising approach -- which has included advertisements up to two minutes long in which Mr. Obama lays out his agenda and even advertisements in video games like ''Guitar Hero'' -- has helped mask some of Mr. Obama's rougher attacks on his rival.
''What Obama is doing is being his own good cop and bad cop,'' said Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer of CMAG, who called the advertising war ''a blowout'' in Mr. Obama's favor.
Based on his current spending, CMAG predicts Mr. Obama's general election advertising campaign will surpass the $188 million Mr. Bush spent in his 2004 campaign by early next week. Mr. McCain has spent $91 million on advertising since he clinched his party's nomination, several months before Mr. Obama clinched his.
The size of the disparity has even surprised aides to Mr. McCain, who traded accusations with Mr. Obama over the advertising battle in this week's debate, with Mr. Obama telling Mr. McCain that ''your ads, 100 percent of them have been negative'' and Mr. McCain saying that ''Senator Obama has spent more money on negative ads than any political campaign in history.''
The most recent analysis of the presidential advertisements by the University of Wisconsin, based on the period from Sept. 28 through Oct. 4, found that nearly 100 percent of Mr. McCain's commercials included an attack on Mr. Obama and that 34 percent of Mr. Obama's advertisements, which were more focused that week on promoting his agenda, included an attack on Mr. McCain.
That finding reflected the McCain campaign's strategy of trying to make Mr. Obama an unacceptable choice in the eyes of undecided voters and Mr. Obama's goal of making undecided voters comfortable with him.
But the Wisconsin Advertising Project says that since Mr. Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination in June, 54 percent of Mr. McCain's advertisements have been completely focused on attacking him, roughly a quarter have mixed criticism of Mr. Obama with a positive message about Mr. McCain, and 20 percent have been devoted solely to promoting Mr. McCain.
In the same period, the study found that 41 percent of Mr. Obama's advertisements had been devoted solely to attacking Mr. McCain, one-fifth mixed criticism of Mr. McCain with a positive message about Mr. Obama, and 38 percent were solely devoted to promoting Mr. Obama.
The group reported that Mr. Obama has also had several weeks in which his advertising was nearly 100 percent negative or contrast advertisements, though considerably fewer such weeks than Mr. McCain has had.
The percentages do not reflect the vastly greater number of spots run by Mr. Obama. But Mr. Goldstein said Mr. McCain had shown more purely negative advertisements than Mr. Obama had, in spite of Mr. Obama's spending advantage.
Here in Philadelphia, the biggest media market in a critical state, both candidates showed a mix of positive and negative advertisements on Friday. The spots seemed to show up across the dial as regularly as the affable Geico gecko or the ambling ne'er-do-wells of FreeCreditReport.com.
During ''Dr. Phil'' on the CBS affiliate here, Mr. Obama showed a minute-long positive commercial recounting ''one of my earliest memories: going with Grandfather to see some of the astronauts, being brought back after a splashdown, sitting on his shoulders and waving a little American flag.''
But minutes earlier during the late afternoon news on the NBC station, Mr. Obama had criticized Mr. McCain over a health care plan that an announcer alleges ''could leave you hanging by a thread.''
Toward the end of the 4 p.m. newscast on the CBS station, Mr. McCain ran one of his rare purely positive spots, speaking directly into the camera and telling viewers, ''The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they?'' He promises, ''I have a plan for a new direction for the economy.''
But on the NBC affiliate an advertisement approved by Mr. McCain was tying Mr. Obama to Antoin Rezko, a Chicago real estate developer convicted of fraud who is listed as among the friends Mr. Obama is said to reward ''with your tax dollars.''
That spot was co-sponsored by the Republican National Committee, which is allowed to split the costs with Mr. McCain on an unlimited number of advertisements, helping him to double the number of advertisements he can buy.
Mr. McCain has used such advertisements to keep up with Mr. Obama's advertising in vital cities like this one, where the campaigns have combined to spend the most in the general election but where Mr. Obama has recently outpaced Mr. McCain by nearly two to one. But such advertisements come with a caveat: they must include a reference to Congressional issues and leaders, making the message generally less direct.
The spot with Mr. Rezko also shows the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi of California, and Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts.
But for every city like Philadelphia, in a state Mr. McCain views as important to his chances for victory, there are those like Miami, Washington and Chicago, where Mr. Obama has often been able to run advertisements nearly unopposed. Washington and Chicago are particularly expensive, and Mr. Obama will easily win both. But their stations reach parts of the contested states of Indiana and Virginia.
Mr. McCain is also getting help from the Republican Party's independent advertising unit, but it cannot coordinate with the party leadership or Mr. McCain's campaign, meaning it is not always in line with Mr. McCain's campaign message. And a smattering of outside groups are running hard-charging advertisements against Mr. Obama, but he has the money to immediately meet those attacks with spots directly addressing their charges.
Now spending almost as much as he can in local television markets, Mr. Obama has increased his advertising on the broadcast television networks, including on National Football League games and soap operas.
''They're doing the networks'' said Mr. Tracey, of CMAG, ''because they've saturated these markets and they're looking for more time.''
Last Sunday, Mr. Obama bought so heavily on football games and other nationally televised programs that, according to CMAG, he spent $6.5 million on a day when Mr. McCain spent less than $1 million.
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LOAD-DATE: October 18, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Senator Barack Obama on Friday in Roanoke, Va. Analysts say his campaign is on pace to surpass next week the record of $188 million in advertising spending in a general election. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES)(A14) CHARTS: The Content of the Campaign Ads: According to an analysis by the Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin, about 80 percent of Senator John McCain's ads have included a negative message.
The tone of the ads from June 3 to Oct. 15
The most frequent ads in the week ending Oct. 12 (Sources: Wisconsin Advertising Project, from TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG data
TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG)(A14)
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The New York Times
October 18, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Is Anybody Happy?
BYLINE: By GAIL COLLINS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 23
LENGTH: 806 words
Now is the October of our discontent.
First of all, George W. Bush showed up on TV Friday morning to reassure the nation. What could possibly be worse?
Everybody knows that anything our president says is very likely wrong, and certainly won't happen. If he announced: ''I'm sending government agents to Spokane to arrest the looters,'' we would expect that the officials would get lost, nobody would be arrested, and the looters probably never existed in the first place.
So hearts sunk throughout the nation when Bush appeared at a Chamber of Commerce gathering to say that the economy would recover.
''America is the most attractive destination for investors around the globe. America is the home of the most talented and enterprising and creative workers in the world,'' said the president, who also insisted that ''democratic capitalism remains the greatest system ever devised.''
Which translates into: all the money is going to Asia, nobody will ever get a job again and Karl Marx was right after all.
Bummer.
Americans are also in a very low state about the presidential elections. Once again we've hit that magic moment when both sides are sure they're going to lose.
The Republicans are deeply depressed. Only Sarah Palin is chipper, perhaps because, as she told her supporters, the staff won't let her watch the news.
The Democrats are terrified. They're convinced something terrible is going to happen because something terrible always happens. Look at 2000! Look at 2004! All the exit polls said it was going to be Kerry and then he lost. How could that happen? Because God hates Democrats, that's why.
It's like the curse of the Bambino. The Democrats fear they're under a jinx because they committed some sin, the political equivalent of trading away Babe Ruth. If so, it probably started with nominating Joe Lieberman for vice president.
The only people who seem to have faith that Barack Obama can pull this off are the Republicans. They thought McCain did well in the final debate and were crushed when viewers only saw his rolling eyes and glares.
Maybe McCain's problem is not his temperament but his positions. It's hard to be cheerful and self-satisfied when you're peddling an unpopular product.
This week, when McCain made appearances at the Al Smith dinner and ''The Late Show With David Letterman,'' he was funny and self-deprecating. Suddenly you remembered -- this guy used to be likeable. Back before he was trying to argue that what a country in economic collapse needs most is tax cuts for the rich and an end to Senate earmarks.
With less than three weeks to go, saddled with an unpopular ideology and an unattractive candidate, the McCain campaign's deep thinkers decided the only possible hope was ...
Joe the Plumber! Joe is, of course, the conservative guy from northwestern Ohio who told Obama: ''Your new tax plan is going to tax me more'' because he planned to buy a business that he hoped would reel in more than $250,000 a year in profits.
The proper answer, as Obama should have known, was: ''No, it won't.''
Instead, he engaged JtheP in conversation, remarking that it might be helpful in this time of crisis to ''spread the wealth around'' a little. Since this was before George W. Bush put the nail into the coffin of capitalism at the Chamber of Commerce speech, Joe was appalled.
The Republican presidential campaign is now all Joe, all the time. Obama's plan to give tax breaks to people making less than $200,000 a year is being described on a McCain Internet ad as ''welfare government handouts.'' In Miami, Lieberman told a rally that McCain would ''fight for Jose el plomero!''
Meanwhile, Joe was happily standing in his front yard, holding forth to the assembled national news media on his theories about everything from Social Security (bad) to the war in Iraq (good). And do not condemn him, people, unless you imagine that if all the cable television reporters in the world were in your driveway, begging for your opinion on the state of the nation, you would say: ''No, I leave that to the experts.''
You should, however, understand that once the interview is over, the reporters will go down the street and ask the sanitation man whether you've ever failed to recycle.
Joe the Plumber, it turns out, is actually named Samuel and is not a licensed plumber. He has a lien on his house for unpaid taxes. While his professional life is still a little hazy, there is not much evidence he's ever going to become a small business owner. And he would be a beneficiary of the Barack Obama tax plan.
I think the lessons here are very clear:
1) Do not organize your presidential campaign around a guy you've only seen on YouTube.
2) Before you become a media sensation, examine your conscience and start separating the bottles and newspapers.
3) Never let George W. Bush mention you at a Chamber of Commerce speech.
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The New York Times
October 18, 2008 Saturday
The New York Times on the Web
Campaigns Tangle Over Health Care
BYLINE: By KEVIN SACK
SECTION: Section ; Column 0; National Desk; Pg.
LENGTH: 822 words
In a coordinated air and ground attack, Senator Barack Obama has charged that his Republican rival for the presidency, Senator John McCain, would make $882 billion in ''drastic cuts to Medicare'' to pay for his health care proposal.
That assertion, which could resonate among elderly voters in crucial swing states like Florida, is being angrily disputed by the McCain campaign. Mr. McCain's top domestic policy adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, said Friday that the Democrat's latest assault on the McCain health plan constituted the ''worst and most sustained distortion of policy in this entire campaign.''
In fact, the Obama campaign's new television advertisement, which Mr. Obama reinforced on the stump in Roanoke, Va., does mischaracterize Mr. McCain's plan by stitching together vague language from a news report with back-of-the envelope calculations by a partisan policy group.
The Obama Medicare ad asserts that the McCain plan would require ''cuts in benefits, eligibility or both.'' In his speech, Mr. Obama added that ''it would mean a cut of more than 20 percent in Medicare benefits next year.''
''If you count on Medicare,'' he said, ''it would mean fewer places to get care, and less freedom to choose your own doctors. You'll pay more for your drugs, receive fewer services, and get lower quality care.''
But Mr. McCain has not suggested cutting Medicare benefits, though it is always possible he might find it necessary to make his plan pay for itself. Rather, Mr. Holtz-Eakin said Friday that Mr. McCain would fill any budget hole in the plan through a variety of changes that would largely leave benefit levels untouched. And he pointed out that Mr. Obama supports many of the same changes.
Among the cost-saving measures listed by Mr. Holtz-Eakin in a conference call with reporters Friday were accelerating the computerization of health records, eliminating fraudulent Medicare claims, requiring high-income beneficiaries to pay more for pharmaceuticals, speeding the use of generic drugs, and eliminating government subsidies for private Medicare Advantage plans. He also spoke, as Mr. Obama often does, of saving money through more effective treatment of chronic diseases and reconfiguring the Medicare payment system to emphasize prevention and primary care.
Economists agree that many of those initiatives should save money over the long term, but estimates of how much and how fast are varied and totally speculative. Nonetheless, both candidates rely on such guesswork to present plans that appear fiscally balanced.
The centerpiece of Mr. McCain's plan, which is intended to make the insurance markets more equitable and competitive, is the elimination of the provision that allows workers to exclude the value of employer-sponsored health benefits from taxable income. That tax advantage, often worth thousands of dollars a year, is not available to those who buy insurance individually. In exchange, Mr. McCain would offer all consumers tax credits of $2,500 per individual or $5,000 per family to purchase health coverage.
Mr. McCain's aides have long asserted that their plan would not add to net government spending. But in July, the Tax Policy Center, a group of analysts from the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, estimated that the change in tax treatment would cost the government $1.3 trillion over 10 years. Mr. Obama's plan to subsidize coverage for low-income workers was estimated to cost $1.6 trillion.
The Tax Policy Center analysts wrote that they had not evaluated whether the health care savings proposed by either candidate would be sufficient to fill the gaps in their plans.
Last week, an article in The Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Holtz-Eakin said any budgetary hole would be filled with reductions to Medicare and Medicaid, without providing much detail. The next day, the Center for American Progress Action Fund, which is led by John D. Podesta, former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton, issued a report asserting that a proportional cut would mean eliminating $882 billion from Medicare and $419 billion from Medicaid.
The Obama ad released Friday cites both the Journal article and the Center for American Progress study. Mr. Obama used the $882 billion figure in his speech without attributing it to the center, which primarily advocates for Democratic positions.
Mr. Holtz-Eakin declined Friday to either accept or reject the Tax Policy Center estimate of the McCain plan's cost. ''We believe and have believed from the day we rolled out our health care plan that the comprehensive reforms are budget-neutral,'' he said.
He emphasized, however, that any reductions would not touch benefits. ''No service is being reduced,'' he said. Every beneficiary, now and in the future, will see exactly the same benefits they have been promised.''
As for Mr. Obama's assertions, he said, ''It's an attempt to simply scare America's seniors.''
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The Washington Post
October 18, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
Questions Linger About McCain's Prognosis After Skin Cancer
BYLINE: David Brown; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 938 words
In May, the presidential campaign of 72-year-old cancer survivor John McCain tried to put to rest doubts about his health by allowing a few reporters to inspect his medical records, but the effort has failed to quell questions about his odds of surviving an eight-year tenure in the White House.
One loosely organized group of physicians has been claiming in Web-based videos, op-ed columns and newspaper ads that McCain's risk of dying from a recurrence of the skin cancer he had treated eight years ago may be as high as 60 percent.
However, data on cancer survival rates compiled by the federal government suggest that people in McCain's situation have no more than a 10 percent chance of dying from melanoma over the next decade.
The key to the favorable prognosis is that McCain has already survived eight years without a recurrence. Even if the cancer was more serious in 2000 than his doctors judged, the fact that he is alive today suggests it had not spread by the time it was removed on Aug. 19, 2000, at the Mayo Clinic's campus in Scottsdale, Ariz.
The McCain campaign has rejected releasing additional records. A campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, said in an e-mail that letting reporters look at 1,173 pages of medical documents "was an unprecedented level of disclosure. . . . It was certainly more significant than the one-page doctor's note [Democratic candidate Barack] Obama released!"
The gist of the critique is that McCain's cancer was more advanced than his physicians concluded and that the chance of recurrence is consequently higher. Melanoma that spreads widely through the body -- "metastasizes," in medical parlance -- is rapidly fatal.
The effort to learn more about McCain's health gained steam after he chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. More than 2,700 physicians signed a full-page ad in the New York Times on Oct. 3 calling for a "full, public release" of the candidate's medical records. Others urged that microscopic slides of tissue removed before and during his operation be made available for review by independent pathologists.
"Voters need to know who is most likely to be running the country in 2010 if Senator McCain is elected in 2008," Wendy Epstein, a New York dermatologist and Obama supporter, wrote in an eight-page analysis of the senator's risk circulating on the Internet.
She and some other critics believe the odds of McCain surviving 10 years after his surgery is 36 to 56 percent. The senator's physicians, while eschewing precise predictions, have said that his risk of developing metastatic melanoma is in the "single digits."
Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Institutes of Health support the more optimistic view. The SEER database is drawn from representative areas that together contain about one-quarter of the population. It is considered the most authoritative compendium of American cancer patients' survival rates.
At the request of The Washington Post, biostatisticians at the National Cancer Institute, where SEER is housed, "interrogated" the database with McCain's demographic variables. None of the data are linked to patients' names.
The melanoma patients in SEER are categorized by whether the disease was "localized," "regional" or "distant" at the time it was found. This staging system is simpler than the one currently used by dermatologists, who divide patients into Stages I to IV, and then into many subcategories.
McCain's physicians concluded after some debate that he was Stage IIa, which would put him in SEER's localized category. Epstein and many of the doctors calling for the release of his records say McCain was Stage IIIb, which falls into SEER's regional group.
The SEER data show that a white male whose cancer was diagnosed in his early 60s and who is now an eight-year survivor of melanoma has a 2 percent risk of dying of the disease in the next five years if the original tumor was localized, and a 4 percent risk if it was regional.
The first estimate was based on the experiences of 1,481 people and has an error range of plus or minus 0.4 percent. The second was drawn from only 83 people and has more uncertainty -- 2.6 percent.
If one looks out 10 years from now, a person with McCain's experience has a 4 percent probability of dying if the tumor was localized and 10 percent if it was regional. The error ranges of those estimates are 0.7 and 5.1 percent, respectively.
Someone with McCain's variables can, of course, die of other causes. According to SEER, such a person has an 85 percent overall chance of surviving five years and a 66 percent chance of living 10 years, regardless of whether the cancer was localized or regional.
In their analysis, many of the critiquing doctors point to a comment made by two pathologists at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Washington who were asked by the Mayo Clinic to look at microscopic slides from McCain's biopsy.
Those doctors said the tissue's appearance "is highly suggestive of a metastasis of malignant melanoma and may represent a satellite metastasis."
A satellite metastasis is an island of cancer that has spread from a nearby tumor. In terms of risk, it is equivalent to finding cancer in the nearby lymph nodes, which makes the disease regional and no longer localized.
The Mayo Clinic doctors concluded that McCain did not have satellite metastases. However, to be safe, they did a much more extensive operation than is usual for purely localized disease, removing more than 30 lymph nodes from McCain's face. No cancer was found in any of them.
Research editor Alice Crites contributed to this report.
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The Washington Post
October 18, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
Bush Defends Rescue Plan;
Government Cash Infusion Was a 'Last Resort,' He Says
BYLINE: Dan Eggen; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: FOREIGN; Pg. A08
LENGTH: 756 words
President Bush yesterday mounted a vigorous defense of his efforts to cope with the global financial meltdown, saying that the move to purchase stock in major U.S. banks was a "last resort" to shore up collapsing credit markets.
Bush, whose administration has come under growing criticism for its uneven response to the crisis, also urged Americans to be patient and allow time for the government's market interventions to take hold.
"The federal government has responded to this crisis with systematic and aggressive measures to protect the financial security of the American people," Bush said in a speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. He added later: "It took a while for the credit system to freeze up; it will take a while for the credit system to thaw."
The 20-minute speech marked Bush's lengthiest and most detailed public comments on the crisis since Sept. 24, when he delivered a prime-time address urging passage of a $700 billion federal bailout plan that is now being implemented. Bush and his senior aides have faced criticism from lawmakers and financial experts over their handling of the crisis, particularly the decision to buy stakes in nine major banks after the administration said it had no intention of doing so.
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and other key economic aides have taken the lead in organizing the administration's response to the crisis, with Bush keeping a relatively low profile. The White House said yesterday's speech was aimed in part at explaining the government's actions to the wider public.
Appearing forceful and at times defensive, Bush said the roots of the crisis go back "more than a decade," effectively laying part of the blame for the crisis on his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton. Bush also stressed that the move to invest taxpayer money in banks is temporary and will not lead to a lasting government investment in private markets.
"I know many Americans have reservations about the government's approach," Bush said. "As a strong believer in free markets, I would oppose such measures under ordinary circumstances. But these are not ordinary circumstances. We took this measure as a last resort."
Much of the address appeared aimed at fiscal conservatives, who have bristled at a series of rescues and other steps that amount to the most extensive government intervention in the markets since the Great Depression.
Bush said he was forced to make such moves because "the hole in our financial system would have grown larger" if he did not. He also noted that the U.S. government has a history of limited interventions in the financial system, most recently during the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s.
"In every case, the government relinquished its ownership stakes after the crisis ended," Bush said. "And we will do so again. The government intervention is not a government takeover."
Bush also said the country should "never lose sight of the enormous benefits delivered by the free-enterprise system," calling it "the greatest system ever devised." World leaders such as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez have characterized the crisis as reflecting the limitations of U.S.-style capitalism.
The economic crisis has broadened at a time when Bush's popularity has plunged to the lowest levels of his presidency. Bush has also come under increasingly sharp attacks from presidential candidates Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who declared this week that he was "not George Bush."
Bush's public statements on the economy have had little apparent impact on financial markets. His remarks yesterday came before U.S. markets opened but after an announcement that the pace of new home construction dropped in September to its lowest level since 1991.
"It's background noise, really," said Ed Yardeni, an investment strategist. "It's cheerleading, and the only thing that is going to cheer people up is if these rescue plans start to work. Cheerleading doesn't work here anymore."
Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at Merk Investments, called Bush's speech "a robust defense of democratic capitalism" that should have been delivered a year ago. But he said that only statements from Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other top economic officials carry weight right now.
"It is unfortunate it doesn't matter," Brusuelas said. "He gave a good speech. It is too bad the public and the market weren't paying attention."
Staff writer Renae Merle contributed to this report.
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
ON NYTIMES.COM
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LENGTH: 298 words
In The Canopy of Pennsylvania
At the Spring Mountain ski area, in Schwenksville, Pa., leaf peeping takes an extreme twist as visitors cut through the deep forest on a challenging combination of swaying sky bridges, cable traverses and zip-line pathways.
nytimes.com/escapes
SLIDESHOW: THE TRINITY ALPS
In the far reaches of Northern California, the Trinity Alps are pocket-sized next to the vast Sierra Nevada. The region, 60 miles southwest of Mount Shasta and a five-hour drive from the San Francisco Bay area, exudes the feeling of a place that time is in the process of forgetting.
nytimes.com/escapes
SLIDESHOW: PRESERVING A LANGUAGE
With only about 200 Arapaho speakers still alive, the tribal leaders on the Wind River Indian Reservation in Wyoming fear their language will not survive.
nytimes.com/national
VIDEO: THE PREGAME HUDDLE
The Times' Pete Thamel joins Connor Ennis to discuss the final week of action in college football before the season's first Bowl Championship Series rankings are announced.
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INTERACTIVE: THE AD WARS
The McCain and Obama campaigns have spent more than $286 million in advertising since June. Watch the commercials, see where they have aired and what they have focused on.
nytimes.com/politics
INTERACTIVE: RADICAL REDESIGN: THE TKTS TICKET BOOTH
A photo slide show and infographic examines the bold new look of the TKTS discount theater-ticket sales booth in Times Square.
nytimes.com/nyregion
VIDEO: URBANEYE
Gets Country
In her UrbanEye video series, Melena Ryzik visits the benefit for the Country Music Hall of Fame.
nytimes.com/arts
Opinion
Campaign Stops: Bill Barich In Virginia and West Virginia, the author finds anxiety amid the natural beauty and staunch respect for tradition.
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Polls Cause Campaigns to Change Their Itineraries
BYLINE: By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JIM RUTENBERG; Michael Cooper and Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 1191 words
Confronting an increasingly bleak electoral map, top aides to Senator John McCain said Thursday that they were searching for a ''narrow-victory scenario'' and would focus in the final weeks on a dwindling number of states, using mailings, telephone calls and television advertisements to try to tear away support from Senator Barack Obama.
Mr. Obama's advisers said they would use the remaining 19 days of the campaign to focus mainly on capturing states that President Bush won in 2004; he is going to Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia, over the next three days and spending two days in Florida next week.
In a sign of the differing fortunes of the candidates, advisers to Mr. Obama said he was escalating his effort in West Virginia, which Mr. Bush won by 13 points in 2004, with a surge in advertising spending and a campaign swing there in the coming days by Mr. Obama or his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr.
''West Virginia is real,'' said Mr. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe. ''We have been watching it for a long time.''
By contrast, Mr. McCain is spending the next three days campaigning in states that Mr. Bush won in 2004 and that earlier this year Republicans had considered relatively safe: he will visit Florida on Friday, followed by North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. Republicans said their hopes of capturing any state the Democrats won in 2004 appeared to be dwindling, though they said they held out hope for Pennsylvania, where Mr. McCain campaigned on Thursday but where he has recently slipped far behind Mr. Obama in some polls.
The emerging strategies were described by top aides to the candidates as the long campaign turned to the final chapter, following the last presidential debate Wednesday night. By every indication, Mr. Obama entered this post-debate period in a significantly stronger position than Mr. McCain, with broader support in polls, more options for an Electoral College victory and voters increasingly fixated on the economic crisis, to the decided advantage of Mr. Obama.
Mr. McCain's advisers said that in his speeches, television advertisements and mailings, he would seize on a remark Mr. Obama made in an encounter with an Ohio voter, Joe Wurzelbacher, who had pressed him to explain his support for a tax increase for upper-income filers. Mr. Obama responded by saying he wanted to ''spread the wealth.'' Mr. McCain repeatedly invoked that encounter with the man, whom he called ''Joe the Plumber,'' during the debate on Wednesday.
''Spread the wealth around: We will focus acutely on that,'' said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain's chief strategist. ''Spread the wealth around is a big mistake.''
With a sense of anxiety rising among Republicans, many were urging the McCain campaign to abandon its effort to win back the four Democratic states where Mr. McCain is still competing but is behind in polls --Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- and instead put all its resources into holding on to the states Mr. Bush won in 2004. In one sign of this, the Republican National Committee, which operates independently of the McCain campaign, pulled its advertisements out of Wisconsin, a state where polls show Mr. Obama pulling away.
But Mr. McCain's advisers made clear that their candidate would continue to campaign aggressively in those states, even as they acknowledged that their options were limited.
''The scenario for winning for us is a narrow-victory scenario,'' Mr. Schmidt said. ''The fact that we're in the race at all -- within striking distance with a 5 percent right track -- is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong.''
Mr. Plouffe said he viewed Colorado and Virginia as the two states that Mr. Obama had the best chance of pulling from the Republican column.
Mr. Obama outspent Mr. McCain on television by four-to-one nationally last week, displaying a financial advantage that Mr. McCain's advisers described as smothering.
Still, the Republican National Committee and Mr. McCain by all appearances have retained a significant amount of money to pay for a late surge of television advertisements, get-out-the-vote calls and mailings. On Thursday, an independent unit of the party began an $18 million advertising campaign that will run until Election Day and started with a commercial questioning Mr. Obama's qualifications to lead.
Called ''The Chair'' and running in eight states -- including Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia -- the spot shows the president's desk in the Oval Office as an announcer says of the current financial crisis, ''This crisis would be Obama's first crisis -- in this chair.''
The effort also includes what Republicans said would be an ambitious automated telephone get-out-the-vote operation, with calls already going out in 10 states. Some appeals invoke Mr. Obama's passing dealings in Chicago with William Ayers, a member of the Weather Underground radical group in the 1960s.
In Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and several other states, the party was running a robotic call in which a man says he is calling because ''you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home and killed Americans.'' (It does not say that Mr. Obama, in fact, worked with Mr. Ayers, now a professor of education, on two nonprofit boards.)
Mr. Obama is preparing to announce his September fund-raising figures in the next three days, with several top contributors saying the tally is estimated at more than $100 million. The campaign is already so heavily invested in television advertising that it is having serious problems finding open spots to place more commercials. The fund-raising has so exceeded its projections, aides said, that the campaign decided to take the rare step of buying time on network television, including a half-hour informercial in prime time across several networks later this month.
For Mr. Obama, complacency has become a critical worry. E-mail alerts and text messages will be sent in the coming days to re-energize supporters. With that in mind, he intensified on Thursday his criticism of Mr. McCain, amplifying the arguments that he had made in the debate instead of simply ignoring his rival.
''We don't take anything for granted,'' said Mr. Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod. ''We've been up and down and sideways over these past two years. We have to be ready for anything. We're not going to let up for one week.''
Mr. Obama admonished his supporters on Thursday not to grow overconfident about his recent surge in crucial electoral battlegrounds and national polls, making public a worry he has privately been raising for more than a week with his circle of advisers.
''For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire,'' he told top contributors at a fund-raising breakfast in Manhattan. ''I've been in these positions before, when we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: John McCain
his wife, Cindy
Joseph I. Lieberman
and Mr. McCain's mother, Roberta, at a rally Thursday in Pennsylvania, where some polls have shown Mr. McCain far behind Barack Obama.(PHOTOGRAPH BY RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
Mr. Obama campaigning on Thursday at Mack's Apples in Londonderry, N.H. ''We have to be ready for anything,'' said his strategist, David Axelrod. ''We're not going to let up for one week.''(PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES) CHART: The Race So Far: Current estimate, by The New York Times, of how each state is leaning in the presidential election.
270 electoral votes needed to win
SOME KEY STATES. Chart details statistics.
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Rivals' Visions Differ on Unleashing Innovation
BYLINE: By WILLIAM J. BROAD and CORNELIA DEAN; Kenneth Chang contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; IF ELECTED ...; Pg. 1
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For decades, the United States dominated the technological revolution sweeping the globe. The nation's science and engineering skills produced vast gains in productivity and wealth, powered its military and made it the de facto world leader.
Today, the dominance is eroding. In 2002, the nation's high-technology balance of trade went south, and it never came back. By 2007, the annual gap between high-tech exports and imports had grown to $53 billion. The gap this year is expected to be the largest ever -- approaching $60 billion.
Both presidential candidates, in their careers and in their campaigns, have made detailed arguments for how the nation should deal with technology rivals, sharpen its competitive edge and improve what experts call its ''ecology of innovation.''
Yet their visions are strikingly different. They diverge mainly on the appropriate role for the federal government in education, in spending on research, and in building, maintaining and regulating the complex infrastructure on which innovation depends. The visions both face tough questions on their viability amid the nation's deepening financial crisis.
Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, seeks to encourage innovation by cutting corporate taxes and ending what he calls ''burdensome regulations'' that he says inhibit corporate investment. But Mr. McCain has also repeatedly gone up against business if he sees a conflict with national security, for instance, in seeking to limit sensitive exports.
In Senator Barack Obama's view, the United States must compete far more effectively against an array of international rivals who are growing more technically adept. Mr. Obama, the Democratic nominee, looks to the federal government to finance science, math and engineering education and the kind of basic research that can produce valuable industrial spinoffs.
The personal styles of the candidates also contrast. Mr. McCain says his leadership of the Senate commerce committee has versed him in technology issues, but he also jokes about his ignorance of personal computers and e-mail. Mr. Obama, an avid BlackBerry user, commenced an aggressive drive for campaign donations over the Internet.
Mr. Obama embraces the theory of evolution and argues that the teaching of intelligent design and other creationist ideas ''cloud'' a student's understanding of science. While Mr. McCain says he personally believes in evolution, he has also said children should be taught ''all points of view.''
Mr. McCain has written five books, starting in 1999, but none discuss in any detail how the nation might respond to technical rivals -- a central theme of Mr. Obama's second book, published in 2006. Mr. Obama posted a detailed set of technology proposals on his Web site late last year; Mr. McCain did so in recent months.
It remains to be seen how the candidates would pay for their proposals.
At the request of The New York Times, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a nonpartisan research group in Washington, estimated the annual costs of the plans and put Mr. Obama's at $85.6 billion and Mr. McCain's at $78.8 billion, excluding his proposed reductions in corporate taxes.
''The pressures of an unfolding fiscal crisis make these priorities recede on the list of what politicians want to do,'' said Robert Reischauer, director of the Congressional Budget Office from 1989 to 1995.
Nevertheless, there is wide agreement among economists and other experts that the capacity to innovate is central to growth, quality of life and success in the global marketplace -- a point on which the candidates agree.
''If we don't have an innovation agenda, if we don't invest in science research, if we don't provide encouragement for our kids to pursue careers in math and science, I don't see where our country can go economically in the future,'' said John Edward Porter, a Republican former congressman who is the board chairman of Research!America, an advocacy group.
Several experts faulted both campaigns for failing to give the innovation issue higher visibility, despite their many plans and proposals.
''I understand the immediate pressures and vicissitudes of elections,'' said Charles M. Vest, president of the National Academy of Engineering and former president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ''But I'd like to see them raising the discussion on this, which is absolutely fundamental to the future of jobs and the economy.''
Restoring the nation's competitive edge is urgent, said Norman R. Augustine, a former chief executive of the aerospace giant Lockheed Martin who led an influential innovation study by the National Academies.
''If we don't wake up,'' Mr. Augustine said in an interview, ''there's a high chance that the generation of children we're leaving behind will have a much lower quality of life.''
McCain as Committee Leader
The golden age of American invention began after World War II, when the government and industry poured big money into research and produced advanced goods like the transistor, the laser, new drugs, fiber optics, new kinds of jets and spacecraft, modems and the desktop computer. All were exported in vast quantities.
Signs of trouble appeared in September and October of 1995, when the nation registered its first negative balances of trade in advanced technology goods, according to the Foreign Trade Division at the Census Bureau.
In 1997, Senator McCain, of Arizona, became chairman of the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, beginning a tenure that, with an interruption in 2001 and 2002, went until early 2005.
Though often approving of business and deregulation, he could reverse course if the issue impinged on what he saw as national security. An early initiative of his sought to restrict American exports of certain high-tech goods, even as the Clinton administration pushed for trade liberalization.
''It's critical that safeguards are in place,'' he said in opening a 1998 hearing on missile and satellite exports to China. Later, Republicans charged the Clinton administration with dangerous irresponsibility in allowing the Chinese to import high-performance computers. Getting the export issue right, Mr. McCain said at a hearing in 2000, is ''one of the greatest challenges of our time.''
The drive helped tighten export regulations. But technology analysts faulted the attack as political and the tightening as unnecessary.
James A. Lewis, an export specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote in 2001 that the new system ''expends enormous resources on trivial and unimportant security risks'' and threatens to damage important sectors of the economy, like the defense industry. The Republicans ''closed off space exports,'' he added in an interview this month. ''So, many countries started their own space programs to get around the export controls.''
Domestically over the years, Mr. McCain's committee sought to spur things like Internet development, the private space industry and the commercial licensing of federally owned inventions.
But in 2002, for the first time, the nation registered negative balances of trade in advanced technology goods for a whole year. ''Time to wake up,'' Representative Donald Manzullo, an Illinois Republican, said as he led a hearing in July 2003 on preserving the defense industrial base.
Mr. McCain, who held no hearings on the issues, did push for new innovations. For instance, he introduced a bill in 2005 to limit heat-trapping gases that sought to spur the development of green technologies.
A few months later, the National Academies issued its influential report ''Rising Above the Gathering Storm.'' The academies, the nation's most eminent scientific and engineering organization, called for an urgent effort to strengthen American competitiveness.
The report said industries like chemical, semiconductor and automotive were growing in other countries while comparable American efforts atrophied. The patent office issued most of its information technology patents to foreigners. The United States ranked 17th among industrialized nations in high-school graduation rates, and the country had become ''a net importer of high-technology products,'' many from China.
The report added that corporations were cutting back on basic research and eliminating in-house laboratories.
Among other things, it proposed that the government finance 10,000 scholarships for math and science teaching careers and 30,000 scholarships for college-level study of science, math and engineering; increase the basic research budget by 10 percent a year for seven years; and establish programs to make broadband available nationwide at low cost.
Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, a New York Republican who was chairman of the House science committee, praised the report at a hearing and said, ''Complacency will kill us.''
Outlook in Obama Book
In October 2006, Mr. Obama, who had been elected to the Senate from Illinois two years earlier, published his second book, ''The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream.'' He wrote of visiting Google headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., where, among other things, he saw a map of the world with lights showing where Google searches were going on. Swaths of Africa and South Asia were dark. But so were portions of the United States, he wrote, where ''thick cords of light dissolved into a few discrete strands.''
Many of the engineers Mr. Obama met at Google were from Asia or Eastern Europe. ''As far as I could tell, not one was black or Latino,'' he wrote. His guide told him that finding American-born engineers of any race was getting so hard that American companies were setting up shop abroad, in part for access to talent.
America, Mr. Obama wrote, cannot compete with countries like China and India simply by cutting costs and shrinking government. ''If we want an innovation economy,'' he added, ''one that generates more Googles each year, then we have to invest in our future innovators -- by doubling federal funding of basic research over the next five years, training 100,000 more engineers and scientists over the next four years, or providing new research grants to the most outstanding early-career researchers in the country.''
He acknowledged that his plan would cost about $42 billion over five years -- ''real money, to be sure, but just 15 percent of the most recent federal highway bill.''
The next year, Mr. Obama joined other senators to introduce a bill that built on the recommendations of ''The Gathering Storm.'' It eventually drew 69 co-sponsors from both sides of the Senate aisle; Mr. McCain was not among them.
Mr. Obama then offered amendments to the bill intended to increase federal support of science education, particularly among women and underrepresented minorities. ''If we do not tap the diversity of our nation,'' he said on the Senate floor, ''we will diminish our capacity to innovate.''
The Senate passed the bill 88 to 8. Mr. McCain abstained. President Bush signed the bill, the America Competes Act, into law. But Congress has yet to finance its programs, estimated to cost about $43 billion for the first three years.
Candidates' Platforms
Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama acknowledge the importance of scientific research. The two men, for instance, advocate making research and development tax credits permanent. They would move the presidential science adviser back into the close orbit of the White House, a position it occupied until 2001, and they support the human exploration of space.
Though their approaches differ, both call for changes in the operation of the patent office, agree that access to broadband must be expanded and advocate steps to encourage technically trained foreigners to enter and stay in the United States.
But Mr. Obama looks to encourage basic research with infusions of federal cash. Mr. McCain says easing regulatory and tax burdens will encourage private spending on research. (Experts say industry now tends to focus on near-term applications, while government finances more basic research that has greater breakthrough potential.)
Mr. Obama has proposed doubling federal financing for basic research in physics, life sciences, mathematics and engineering over 10 years. He has promised to review export rules he calls outdated and sees as having ''unduly hampered the competitiveness of the domestic aerospace industry.''
By contrast, even before the current economic crisis, Mr. McCain proposed freezing, at least initially, almost all discretionary federal spending -- a budget category that includes federal research efforts.
And he makes hay on the stump by citing, as an example of wasted money, a study of the DNA of grizzly bears in Montana, wondering aloud why anyone would think bears were involved in paternity suits or criminal activity. (In fact, the project, undertaken by the United States Geological Survey, intended to find ways of estimating the region's population of grizzlies, endangered in the lower 48 states.)
The McCain campaign has said he will encourage corporate research by reducing the capital gains and corporate taxes and promoting ''conditions favorable to investment.'' In response to a survey by Science Debate 2008, a private group that tried to arrange a debate on science issues, he cited ''burdensome regulations'' as inhibiting innovation in the United States and said he would work to remove them.
''I am uniquely qualified to lead our nation during this technological revolution,'' he said in the survey response, pointing to his Navy experience with advanced technologies as well as his leadership on the Senate commerce committee. ''Under my guiding hand,'' he added, Congress developed a wireless spectrum policy that prompted the rapid rise of mobile phones and Wi-Fi technology.
Seeking to reduce the government's role in choosing technologies and to increase that of entrepreneurs, Mr. McCain has now proposed federal sponsorship of a $300 million prize to encourage the development of a revolutionary new battery for electric cars.
Mr. Obama supports expanding research on human embryonic stem cells. The research is regarded as a promising avenue toward novel treatments for serious diseases. But because such research involves destruction of early stage human embryos, opponents of abortion rights oppose it. Mr. Bush severely restricted the work in 2001.
Mr. McCain has voiced support for this research, but he now adds that he hopes it will soon be unnecessary to use these cells. In his response to the Science Debate 2008 questionnaire, at sciencedebate2008.com, Mr. McCain said the nation should refuse ''to sacrifice moral values and ethical principles for scientific progress.''
Mr. McCain's campaign did not respond to repeated requests for information. According to the journal Science, he has ''no formal structure'' for seeking science advice. It reports that Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former economic adviser and head of the Congressional Budget Office under Mr. Bush, serves as Mr. McCain's ''point man'' on science, having been in touch with experts on climate, space and ''science in general.''
On the other hand, Mr. Obama established a science advisory committee led by Dr. Harold Varmus, a Nobel laureate who is president of the Memorial-Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Dr. Varmus said the group's leaders communicated almost daily with the campaign's policy leaders. And this month, the campaign announced that 61 American Nobel laureates in science had endorsed Mr. Obama. (When Martin Chalfie, a Columbia biologist, learned last week that he had won the Nobel Prize in chemistry, he said one of the first things he did was to call one of the 61 to ask how to add his name to the list.)
Dr. Varmus acknowledged that finding the money to pay for the Obama innovation agenda ''is not an easy question.'' But he said Mr. Obama would focus on federal spending on high priority areas ''and among the things he mentioned as being central to economic recovery are science and technology.''
Experts agree that the immediacy of the financial crisis is overshadowing the innovation debate and predict little headway until a new president has settled into office and confronts budgetary realities.
''The problem,'' said Mr. Boehlert, the former chairman of the House science committee, who left Congress last year, ''is that it takes an immediate investment that won't pay immediate dividends, and people are looking for an instant fix.''
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LOAD-DATE: April 7, 2011
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: JOHN McCAIN: ''I am uniquely qualified to lead our nation during this technological revolution.'' (PHOTOGRAPH BY JEFF CHIU/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
BARACK OBAMA: ''If we want an innovation economy, one that generates more Googles each year, then we have to invest in our future innovators.'' (PHOTOGRAPH BY DANIEL ACKER/BLOOMBERG NEWS) (A18) CHARTS: HIGH-TECH IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: Since 2002, imports of advanced technology products have exceeded exports. This year the gap in the balance of trade in technology is expected to approach $60 billion. (Source: Commerce Department)
The Technology Race: Some of the ways the two major presidential candidates say they would promote scientific and technical innovation. (Sources: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
candidates' statements and answers to a questionnaire from Science Debate 2008)(A18)
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Debates Over, Candidates Begin Final Sprint
BYLINE: By JEFF ZELENY and MICHAEL COOPER
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DATELINE: LONDONDERRY, N.H.
With their final debate behind them, Senator Barack Obama admonished his supporters on Thursday to avoid overconfidence and Senator John McCain warned that his Democratic opponent would raise taxes on small-business owners, as the two candidates opened the final chapter of a 19-day sprint to the election.
''For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire,'' Mr. Obama told top contributors during a fund-raising breakfast in Manhattan, alluding to his recent gains in opinion polls. ''I've been in these positions before, when we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked.''
With that lesson in mind, Mr. Obama arrived at a rainy afternoon campaign stop here in New Hampshire, a state whose primary he lost nine months ago to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. The outcome set off the longest nomination fight in the party's history.
Mr. McCain rallied supporters in Downingtown, Pa., reprising the character of ''Joe the Plumber'' as an example of business owners who he said would be affected by Mr. Obama's tax plan. But even as he was cheered at the rally, questions and scrutiny of the employment and tax records arose for Joe Wurzelbacher of Holland, Ohio, who had met Mr. Obama at a campaign stop on Sunday.
''The real winner last night was Joe the Plumber,'' Mr. McCain said, adding: ''He won and small businesses won across America, they won, because the American people are not going to let Senator Obama raise their taxes in a tough economy.''
Mr. McCain then recounted his version of the encounter Mr. Obama had with the man who is suddenly the most famous plumber in America. He is a worker who would apparently get a tax cut under Mr. Obama's plan, but who also expressed concerns that his taxes would increase if he ever makes enough money to buy his own business and net more than $250,000 a year.
''You know what Senator Obama had to say to Joe?'' Mr. McCain asked. ''That he wanted to spread his wealth around, he wanted to spread his wealth. What does that mean? He wants government to take Joe's money and give it to somebody else. His hard-earned dollars! We're not going to stand for that. America didn't become the greatest nation on earth by spreading the wealth; we became the greatest nation by creating new wealth.''
Here in New Hampshire, Mr. Obama dismissed the criticism from Mr. McCain.
''He's trying to suggest that a plumber is the guy he's fighting for,'' Mr. Obama said. ''How many plumbers do you know who's making a quarter of million dollars a year? I have a different set of priorities.''
Trying to keep his supporters motivated, he added: ''Now, in the closing weeks, John McCain thinks he can make this campaign all about me -- but the truth is, this campaign is about you.''
Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain were both headed back to New York on Thursday afternoon for the annual Alfred E. Smith charity dinner at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel. In the waning days of the presidential campaign, it will be the second consecutive night -- and likely the last -- that the two rivals will spend time in the same place.
Both campaigns released new commercials on Thursday, which were made overnight after the debate at Hofstra University on Long Island. Mr. Obama's message sought to tie Mr. McCain to President Bush, charging that his rival would ''keep spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while our own economy struggles -- same as Bush.'' For his part Mr. McCain in his ad distanced himself from the administration, saying ''We need a new direction, and I have a plan.''
Even as Mr. Obama warned his supporters against overconfidence, he told them he would need their help, not only in the final days of the campaign but also in his administration should he win the election.
''Once we're done, there is extraordinary expertise in this room, and we're going to need good advice,'' Mr. Obama told about 120 business executives and other contributors sitting in a gilded room in the Metropolitan Club on Fifth Avenue. ''And who knows, there might be even some of you who decide that you want to spend a little time in government. We're going to need people who can roll up their sleeves and make sure that Washington and Wall Street and the country as a whole are working.''
In a brief morning speech to contributors, Mr. Obama said the end of the campaign was in sight, but the most the pressing challenges still lay ahead.
''One of the things that I think we have to remember is that we are now 19 days, not from the end, but from the beginning,'' Mr. Obama said. ''The amount of work that will be involved for the next president is going to be extraordinary.''
While in New York, Mr. McCain was preparing to appear on ''The Late Show'' with David Letterman on Thursday evening, Mr. Obama is set to attend an evening fund-raiser headlined by Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel.
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Spare Times: For Children
BYLINE: By LAUREL GRAEBER
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CFA-IAMS CAT CHAMPIONSHIP
This weekend both Barack Obama and John McCain will appear at Madison Square Garden. They won't debate, give speeches or sign autographs, and they may not even make eye contact. Any expressed hostilities are likely to be, well, catty.
That's because this Obama and this McCain are cats. Barack Obama, a Bombay, and John McCain, a silver tabby, will star at the CFA-Iams Cat Championship. Balloting stations will be near their cages, and visitors, especially children, will be encouraged to vote in what promises to be a rather unorthodox election.
''Our intention is that people will vote for the cat that they like,'' said Allene Tartaglia, executive director of the Cat Fanciers' Association, which sponsors the show with Iams, the pet food company. The championship, she stressed, is never political, at least not in the Washington sense. ''We became aware of this Bombay cat named Barack Obama,'' she said, ''and we thought this could be fun.''
Fun is emphasized at the show, which is a family event as well as a serious competition. Young spectators can learn more about the 41 feline varieties, including the American curl, the Russian blue and the Egyptian mau, at the Breed Showcase, which will also offer information like how to bathe a cat (without water, and, yes, carefully).
And while domestic cats aren't exactly known for jumping through hoops for humans, many are expected to do just that (above, a Japanese bobtail). Cats from TV commercials will demonstrate their abilities, and ordinary pets will show off in the Feline Agility Competition (entries are now closed), which involves navigating tunnels, mazes and stairs. ''When food is introduced, it is amazing what cats will do,'' Ms. Tartaglia said.
In addition to the competitors the show will feature dozens of adoptable cats from the Mayor's Alliance for NYC's Animals. All are solid, appealing candidates -- for pets, that is. (Saturday, 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.; Sunday, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.; the Expo Center, 877-232-7469, cfa-iams-cat-championship.org; $15 a day; $13 for 62+ and 12 and under.)
FOR CHILDREN
'ADVENTURES WITH DORA AND DIEGO' (Friday through Sunday, and Tuesday through Thursday) The young Latino stars of the Nickelodeon animated television series ''Dora the Explorer'' and ''Go, Diego, Go!'' have taken their expeditions into new territory at the Children's Museum of Manhattan, whose exhibition has separate Dora and Diego environments, including Diego's Animal Rescue Center and Dora's Fiesta. Intended for ages 2 to 6, the interactive, bilingual displays are designed to teach language, science and music skills, as well as facts about Latin America. From 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., the Tisch Building, 212 West 83rd Street, (212) 721-1223, cmom.org. Free with museum admission: $10; $7 for 65+; free for under 1 and members.
AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY (Friday through Thursday) Creatures that creep, crawl, slither and even swim are definitely the museum's stars. The popular 2006 exhibition ''Lizards & Snakes: Alive!'' has returned, with more than 60 breathing (and hissing) examples, from five continents. The museum is also showing the Imax film ''Sea Monsters: A Prehistoric Adventure'' every hour on the half-hour from 10:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Its subject is not the monsters of myth but very real species, like Dolichorhynchops and Styxosaurus, which swam the oceans while T. rex walked the earth. Open daily, 10 a.m. to 5:45 p.m., at Central Park West and 79th Street, (212) 769-5200, amnh.org. Tickets to the special exhibition or Imax films (includes museum admission): $24; $18 for students and 60+; $14 for 12 and younger.
'ARCHAEOLOGY ZONE: DISCOVERING TREASURES FROM PLAYGROUNDS TO PALACES' (Sunday, Monday and Thursday) Children will step into the shoes of an explorer like Indiana Jones in this exhibition at the Jewish Museum, but the adventures will be purely scholarly. Still, there is plenty of excitement in analyzing artifacts like a jar handle, a clay jug and a bangle and figuring out the purpose behind ancient pieces like a Greek helmet and a bull-shaped vessel. This interactive show also includes a recreated room from the Ottoman period (about 1900), where young archaeologists can dress in costume. (Through June 15, 2009.) Sunday, 11 a.m. to 5:45 p.m.; Monday, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m., 1109 Fifth Avenue, at 92nd Street, (212) 423-3200, thejewishmuseum.org. Free with admission: $12; $10 for 65+; $7.50 for students; free for under 12 and members.
BANK STREET SCHOOL FALL FAIR (Saturday) The fun will be both outdoors and in, and for teenagers as well as toddlers, at this annual benefit. Among the outside activities are a big slide, an obstacle course and a tae kwon do demonstration, and those in the school include games, a pitching cage, arts and crafts and a flea market. From 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., 610 West 112th Street, Morningside Heights, bankstreet.edu; free.
BIG MOVIES FOR LITTLE KIDS (Monday) This series is intended to introduce small children (though all ages are welcome) to classic films. The latest show, recommended for cinephiles over 4, is ''Splish Splash,'' a 75-minute group of shorts from the Canadian Film Board dealing with a favorite childhood subject: water. The selections include ''Tzaritza,'' about a Bulgarian girl who finds a magic shell, and ''Paddle to the Sea,'' about a toy Indian canoe. At 4 p.m., Cobble Hill Cinemas, 265 Court Street, at Butler Street, Brooklyn, (718) 596-4995, bigmoviesforlittlekids.blogspot.com; $6.50.
'BOO AT THE ZOO' (Saturday and Sunday) Why not get an early start on Halloween? With its bats, vultures, snakes and hissing cockroaches, the Bronx Zoo offers spooky fun all year, but for the next three weekends it will have special Halloween activities, including magic, storytelling, music, crafts and an animal-costume parade. Treats will also be provided, for both humans and animals. (Through Oct. 26.) From 11 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., Bronx River Parkway and Fordham Road, Fordham, (718) 367-1010, bronxzoo.com. Free with admission: $15; $13 for 65+; $11 for 3 to 12; free for under 3 and for children in costume when accompanied by a paying adult (limited-admission tickets).THE BROWNSTONE SCHOOL HALLOWEEN FUN FAIR (Saturday) This festival offers all manner of explorations, whether children prefer the challenging (an obstacle course) or the simple and sweet (a life-size Candyland course). Plans also include a bouncy castle, a train ride, crafts and food. From 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., P.S. 87 school yard, 160 West 78th Street, Manhattan (or, if it rains, Holy Trinity Church, 213 West 82nd Street), (212) 874-1341; free.
B.Y.O.K. (Sunday) Once people become parents, they often leave their B.Y.O.B. days behind. Now 92YTriBeCa, a new satellite of the 92nd Street Y, is offering the perfect substitute: B.Y.O.K., or Bring Your Own Kid. As the title implies, this series is devoted to cross-generational fun, and for its inaugural event it will feature a cross-generational bill: AudraRox, a family-oriented rock band founded by Audra Tsanos, and Toxic Muffin, a tween rock band led by Ms. Tsanos's son Tino. At 11 a.m., 200 Hudson Street, at Canal Street, (212) 415-5500, 92ytribeca.org; $15.
'CAPITALS OF MUSIC: BERNSTEIN'S NEW YORK' (Saturday) Leonard Bernstein was a pioneer in creating concert programs for the young, so it's only fitting that the current celebrations of his life and work should include an event for children. This season-opening program in the New York Philharmonic Young People's Concert series (which Bernstein founded) is devoted to his works about New York, like excerpts from ''West Side Story'' and ''On the Town,'' as well as pieces by Gershwin, Copland and Sebastian Currier. Bernstein's daughter Jamie Bernstein will host. At 2 p.m. (preconcert musical activities at 12:45), Avery Fisher Hall, Lincoln Center, (212) 875-5656, nyphil.org; $11 to $32.
'DAISY IN DISGUISE' (Saturday and Sunday) A rose by any other name might smell as sweet, but Daisy is convinced that changing her own name -- not to mention her identity -- will make a world of difference. In this new musical by Stacie Lents and Simon Gray, presented by Vital Children's Theater, Daisy, tired of not being invited to play ball with the boys, decides to disguise herself as David, with intriguing consequences. (Through Nov. 16.) Saturday and Sunday at 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., the McGinn-Cazale Theater, 2162 Broadway, at 76th Street, fourth floor, (212) 579-0528, vitaltheatre.org; $20.
'THE GAZILLION BUBBLE SHOW' (Friday through Sunday, and Wednesday and Thursday) Children love bubbles, and Ana Yang, in this interactive show, promises not just a gazillion but also some of the largest ever blown (her husband, Fan Yang, holds the world record), along with light effects and lasers. Audience members may even find themselves in bubbles of their own. (Through January.) Wednesdays through Fridays at 7 p.m.; Saturday at 11 a.m. and 2 and 7 p.m.; Sunday at noon and 3 p.m.; New World Stages, 340 West 50th Street, Clinton, (212) 239-6200, gazillionbubbleshow.com; $41.50 to $86.50.
PAUL GREEN'S SCHOOL OF ROCK BEST-OF-SEASON SHOW (Saturday) You don't have to be a grown-up to be a rocker. (Some would argue that adulthood, at least as a state of mind, is a disqualification.) The performers at this three-hour concert will prove it. Ages 7 to 17, they are from various New York and New Jersey branches of the Paul Green School of Rock, the Philadelphia-based music institute that was the subject of the documentary ''Rock School.'' At noon (doors open at 11 a.m.), Blender Theater, 127 East 23rd Street, Manhattan, livenation.com; $12 in advance, $15 at the door.
'GUSTAFER YELLOWGOLD'S MELLOW SENSATION' (Saturday) Ready for a new kind of mellow yellow? Hailing from the Sun and looking like an animated drop of butter, Gustafer Yellowgold is the creation of the illustrator and award-winning composer Morgan Taylor, who is returning for another series of shows about his hero's adventures. Like Gustafer's other appearances, this one includes live music (with new songs celebrating the fall), slides and narration. (Through Dec. 6.) At 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., DR2 Theater, 103 East 15th Street, Manhattan, (212) 239-6200; $25.
HALLOWEEN HARVEST FESTIVAL (Saturday) Superheroes, witches and dogs -- what more could you ask for to delight young Halloween revelers? This year the harvest fair at Socrates Sculpture Park in Queens has a superheroes theme, and artists affiliated with the park will lead children in making appropriate costumes. At 1 p.m. pet owners can take part in the annual Canine Costume Contest (decked-out dogs will be registered at the gate), and at 2 p.m. the Red Door Theater Company will present an adaptation of Roald Dahl's children's novel ''The Witches.'' From 11 a.m. to 2 p.m., rain or shine, Broadway and Vernon Boulevard, Long Island City, (718) 956-1819, socratessculpturepark.org; free.
HARVEST FESTIVAL AT JEFFERSON MARKET GARDEN (Saturday) The pumpkins at this annual event are supposed to be as big as the children, who will be invited to decorate them for Halloween. Young visitors are encouraged to come in costume and enjoy other crafts in this community garden, as well as entertainment from the Jefferson Market Library. From 11 a.m. to 2 p.m., junction of Greenwich Avenue, Avenue of the Americas and 10th Street, Greenwich Village, jeffersonmarketgarden.org; free. (Rain date, Sunday.)
'HOUSE ABOUT IT' (Friday through Sunday, and Tuesday through Thursday) This exhibition gives new meaning to playing house. Created by the Staten Island Children's Museum, the show, whose centerpiece is a child-size house under construction, introduces young visitors to all aspects of the building trades. Activity stations include an architect's office, a space to examine foundation materials and a workbench to practice sawing and drilling. The house offers opportunities for tiling and shingling, and a dollhouse lets young decorators ponder fabrics and furnishings. At 1000 Richmond Terrace, Livingston, (718) 273-2060, statenislandkids.org. Hours: Friday, and Tuesday through Thursday, noon to 5 p.m.; Saturday and Sunday, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Free with admission: $5; free for members.
'I BELIEVE IN MAKE BELIEVE' (Saturday and Sunday) With characters including a cat, a rooster, a princess, elves and a variety of robbers, you can be sure that this musical lives up to its title. Written by Carol Lynn Pearson and J. A. C. Redford, it is an adaptation of several Grimm fairy tales, presented here by the actors, ages 5 to 12, of the Pied Piper Children's Theater Company. Saturday at 3 and 7 p.m., Sunday at 4 p.m., Holy Trinity Church, 20 Cumming Street, near Dyckman Street, Inwood, (212) 544-2976; $8; $6 for under 16 and 65+.
'LEARN TO RIDE' (Saturday) This workshop, sponsored by Bike New York and the Parks and Recreation Department, promises to reduce both the skinned knees and frayed nerves that frequently accompany first bicycle outings. To be held in various locations through early November, it will teach children how to balance and how to start, stop and steer. Participants must bring their own helmets and bicycles. From 10 a.m. to 1 p.m., yard of I.S. 27, Broadway and Forest Avenue, West New Brighton, Staten Island. Free, but registration is required: bikenewyork.org.
MANHATTAN COUNTRY SCHOOL FARM FESTIVAL (Saturday) Introducing a country experience to young city dwellers is one of the aims of Manhattan Country School, and its annual festival continues the theme. The attractions at this fund-raiser will include hayrides, pumpkin decorating, farm produce, live folk and country music, and a haunted house. From 11 a.m. to 4 p.m., rain or shine, 96th Street between Madison and Fifth Avenues, (212) 348-0952, manhattancountryschool.org; free.
MILKSHAKE (Sunday) This is the kind you taste with your ears. A band for young rockers (3 and older), Milkshake has been featured in the children's equivalent of MTV: music videos on PBS Kids. And since the members have indie-rock experience, they're palatable to parents too. At this concert they will celebrate their new DVD, ''Screen Play.'' At noon (doors open at 11 a.m.), Highline Ballroom, 431 West 16th Street, Chelsea, (212) 414-5994, ticketweb.com; $15; $10 minimum per person at tables.
'MOEY LIVE: P IS FOR PARTY' (Sunday) Moey (a k a Melissa Levis) of Moey's Music Party describes her new show as like '' 'Rocky Horror' for toddlers.'' So prepare for your little ones (and even children as old as 8) to dress up and go crazy as they follow Moey in a musical adventure whose purpose is to plan a fabulous party with things like puppets, princesses, pompoms and pirates. Yes, the whole thing is brought to you by the letter P. (Through Oct. 26.) At 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., DR2 Theater, 103 East 15th Street, Manhattan, (212) 239-6200, moeysmusicparty.com; $25.
NEW YORK CARES DAY (Saturday) This is one Saturday when everyone should go to school -- not to study, but to paint classrooms, reorganize libraries, plant flowers, clean storage areas and other helpful activities. Sponsored by New York Cares, the volunteer organization, the effort will also raise money for the city's public schools through funds pledged for time worked. Events are scheduled for all five boroughs and a total of 119 schools. From 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Registration and locations: newyorkcaresday.org.
NEW YORK ROAD RUNNERS FOUNDATION YOUTH JAMBOREE (Saturday) Young athletes -- runners, jumpers and shot putters -- can show their stuff in this competition, from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. Events for ages 4 to 10 are in the morning; those for 11 to 15 are in the afternoon. Everyone takes home a ribbon and aT-shirt, and spectators are welcome. At the Icahn Stadium, Randalls Island, (646) 758-9675, nyrrfoundation.org.; free.
'THE ORCHESTRA -- A HAPPY FAMILY' (Saturday and Sunday) The Lolli-Pops concerts from the Little Orchestra Society, geared to ages 3 to 5, use friendly animal characters like Bang, Bow, Buzz and Toot to introduce music: in this case the different sections of the orchestra. Children will see how well these relatives get along in pieces by Gershwin, Debussy, Mozart and Rossini. Saturday at 10:30 a.m. and noon, Sunday at 1 and 2:30 p.m., the Kaye Playhouse, 68th Street between Lexington and Park Avenues, (212) 971-9500, littleorchestra.org; $10 and $40.
'PETER AND THE WOLF' (Saturday and Sunday) An old wolf learns some new tricks in this production, which opens the season at Manhattan Children's Theater. Adapted by Allison Gregory, the show, for ages 4 and older, is inspired by the classic tale but has contemporary elements, including a score by Hummie Mann that builds on Prokofiev's classical themes. Here too the young hero tries to re-educate the wolf. (Through Nov. 9.) At noon and 2 p.m., 52 White Street, near Church Street, TriBeCa, (212) 352-3101, mctny.org; $20. PRESERVATION DETECTIVES' FAMILY TOURS (Sunday) The Lower East Side has transformed over the last century, but the past still comes vibrantly alive in many of its corners. One is the Eldridge Street Synagogue, the landmark 1887 building where many Jewish immigrants worshiped. Now the Museum at Eldridge Street, the organization that recently restored the synagogue, is leading a family tour every Sunday. Children 5 to 10 can view artifacts, learn neighborhood and cultural lore and role-play a little history, including making a copy of a stained-glass window. At 10:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m., 12 Eldridge Street, between Canal and Division Streets, (212) 219-0302, eldridgestreet.org; $10; $6 for ages 5 through 18 and 65+.
ROOSEVELT ISLAND KIDFEST (Saturday) You can think of it as Woodstock for the small set, with outdoor concerts each weekend of this month featuring child-friendly performers, along with food and rides. This Saturday it's Uncle Rock, or Robert Burke Warren, a former stay-at-home dad and former member of rock bands. A current star among the young, he is inspired by sources like Roald Dahl, Pete Seeger and Shel Silverstein. From 2 to 4 p.m., central lawn, Riverwalk Commons, Roosevelt Island, rooseveltislandkidfest.com; free.
'THE SELFISH GIANT' (Saturday and Sunday) Storybook giants are notoriously ill behaved, and the title character in this musical, adapted from the Oscar Wilde fairy tale, refuses to share his beautiful garden. The production, from Literally Alive Children's Theater, includes dance and puppetry, as well as a preshow workshop to make decorations for the stage. (Through Oct. 26.) Workshop at 10 a.m., performance at 11 a.m., the Players Theater, 115 Macdougal Street, Greenwich Village, (212) 352-3101, literallyalive.com; $25.
'THEATRESPORTS' (Sunday) It may involve actors, but it's still an athletic event: The members of Freestyle Repertory Theater, an improv troupe, break up into two teams and perform skits based on suggestions from the audience. Children attending not only vote on the outcome but also participate onstage. At noon, Gallery Players, 199 14th Street, Park Slope, Brooklyn, (718) 595-0547, Ext. 6, galleryplayers.com; $8 for children; free for adults. LAUREL GRAEBER
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USA TODAY
October 17, 2008 Friday
FINAL EDITION
'Joe the Plumber' caught in post-debate glare;
Obama tax plan would likely help Ohioan
BYLINE: Dennis Cauchon and Peter Eisler
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 2A
LENGTH: 742 words
HOLLAND, Ohio -- It turns out "Joe the Plumber," the unexpected focus of Wednesday night's presidential debate, has a different first name and no plumber's license, owes back taxes to the state of Ohio and would likely get a tax cut under Democrat Barack Obama's plan.
As details emerged Thursday about the man Republican John McCain said would pay higher taxes under Obama's plan, Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, 34, retreated inside his house after being besieged by interview requests.
Wurzelbacher lives in a small, beige ranch house in a tree-lined, working-class neighborhood outside Toledo. His street was crowded Thursday with 30 journalists from as far as Italy and four satellite TV trucks.
Wurzelbacher conducted a round of TV interviews on morning news shows and with reporters in his driveway before he went into his house, saying he was through talking.
More details about Wurzelbacher emerged throughout the day Thursday. Ohio records show he has a lien on his home from January 2007 for failing to pay $1,182.98 in state income taxes. The lien has not been settled.
He also had to settle a lien for $1,261.37 that was placed in July 2007 by a local hospital for outstanding bills. It was lifted last October after the debt was satisfied.
Wurzelbacher said Thursday that he isn't a licensed plumber but works with a plumber.
The experience left him dazed, he said. "I'm kind of like Britney Spears having a headache. Everybody wants to know about it."
"Somebody like Britney Spears would be able to handle this because she asked for it. Joe the Plumber didn't ask for it," said Lucas County Republican Chairman Jon Stainbrook, acting as a spokesman for Wurzelbacher.
Wurzelbacher was thrust into the spotlight after Obama knocked on some doors in his neighborhood during a campaign stop Sunday. Wurzelbacher chatted with Obama about the candidate's plan to raise federal taxes on couples earning more than $250,000. He said he objected to it. Obama replied, "I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."
Wurzelbacher didn't know McCain would mention him during the debate, Stainbrook said, and has received more than 1,000 phone calls since then.
McCain touted Wurzelbacher on Thursday.
"The real winner last night was Joe the Plumber," McCain said at a rally in Pennsylvania. "Joe's the man. He won, and small businesses won across America."
McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said the campaign saw no reason to check out Wurzelbacher's situation before McCain brought him up in the debate.
"We don't have the time or the resources to research the background of every American who gets a tax increase under Barack Obama's economic plan," he said.
Wurzelbacher told the Associated Press he does not make more than $200,000 a year -- the threshold for an individual getting a tax increase on income, capital gains and dividends under Obama's plan. But he said he still objected to Obama's thinking behind the tax hike.
"It's not right for someone to decide you made too much -- that you've done too good and now we're going to take some of it back," he said.
Wurzelbacher also told The (Toledo) Blade newspaper that he has no specific plan to buy the two-man plumbing business where he works but has talked generally with owner Al Newell about someday taking it over.
"It is utterly bizarre that McCain chose this guy as the poster child, because this guy would get a tax cut under Obama, and wouldn't under McCain," says William Gale, co-director of the Tax Policy Center, which has analyzed both Obama's and McCain's tax plans.
The center is run jointly by the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, two liberal-leaning Washington think tanks.
Gale said commercial business databases suggest Newell Plumbing and Heating apparently has annual sales of about $100,000. "This guy's not in any danger from Obama's tax hikes," he said.
Wurzelbacher told the AP that he doesn't need a plumber's license as long as he is working on site with Newell. Wurzelbacher's claims angered Thomas Joseph, head of the local plumbers union.
"He makes himself out to be something other than what he is," Joseph said.
Wurzelbacher, Joseph said, applied for an apprenticeship in November 2003 but never completed his apprentice training nor applied for a license with the city of Toledo. Apprentices must complete about five years of training then pass a licensing test.
Contributing: David Jackson and Richard Wolf, reporting from Washington along with Eisler
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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The Washington Post
October 17, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
Last Debate Is Not a Winner, In the Ratings
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1144 words
Nearly 60 million viewers watched the third and final -- and most contentious -- debate between presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain.
Which, yes, means the faceoff you most wanted to see this election year was the one between vice presidential candidates Joseph Biden and Sarah Palin. It clocked more than 73 million viewers, and was the second-most-watched debate in U.S. history, presidential or vice presidential.
Wednesday's final debate, from Hofstra University, did not amass the 66 million viewers who watched the second debate. But that town-hall-style event was held just a week after the highly anticipated and much-watched veep faceoff and in the early electrifying days of the Wall Street meltdown.
The least-watched Republican vs. Democrat debate of this election was the first, which logged 55 million viewers.
Wednesday's debate, in which the two candidates for the first time sat spitting distance from each other, might have drawn a bigger crowd had it not run up against Fox's broadcast of a championship-deciding Game 5 between Los Angeles and Philadelphia -- those teams' cities being the country's second- and fourth-largest TV markets.
Though CBS News's Bob Schieffer moderated, CBS's coverage attracted the fewest viewers among the major broadcasters, 9.2 million. ABC logged 10.6 million; NBC led with 11.3 million.
Fox News Channel enjoyed its biggest debate crowd of this cycle, 9.1 million viewers. Another 8.9 million went with CNN and 3.7 million chose MSNBC.
The overall tally also includes Univision, CNBC, BBC America, MUN2, Telemundo and PBS. PBS estimates are not included in Nielsen's stats, but the public television network provides its own audience estimate.
* * *
Major League Baseball has agreed to postpone the first pitch of Game 6 of the World Series (should the game be needed) by about 15 minutes to enable Fox to join CBS and NBC in running Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama 's 30-minute message to voters Oct. 29.
That leaves only ABC among the major broadcast networks still undecided as to whether it will let Obama's campaign buy the 8 p.m. half-hour slot on its prime-time schedule.
"Fox will accommodate Senator Obama's desire to communicate with voters in this long-form format," the network said in a statement. "If requested, the network would be willing to make similar time available to Senator McCain's campaign."
Fox is contractually obligated to carry the game if this year's World Series comes to that.
Obama's campaign is ponying up just shy of $1 million each to NBC and CBS for the half-hour buy. The camp likely would pay a similar amount to Fox. That's considerably less than NBC and CBS would otherwise get for the 10 or 11 ad "units" they run during that half-hour. But Obama is not getting a price break; the campaign will be charged what's called the "lowest unit cost" in compliance with federal law.
ABC and Obama's camp are still in talks about whether the network will make available the time slot, which would enable the candidate to create a so-called "roadblock" on the broadcast networks.
With those networks these days accounting for only about half the audience watching TV at any given time, it's a less dramatic programming stunt than it would have been a decade or so ago, but pretty dramatic nonetheless.
ABC has scheduled an episode of its struggling dramedy series "Pushing Daisies" at 8 that night. The show is one of last year's freshman series hurt by the writers' strike; ABC is trying to relaunch it this fall, but so far without much luck. ABC execs may believe there is opportunity for "Daisies" to get more sampling if the network does not join in the Obama buy, particularly now that Game 6 would not start until 8:35 p.m. -- more than halfway through the "Daisies" broadcast.
* * *
John McCain, so pugnacious in his encounters with his Democratic rival, folded like a tent when confronted last night by late-night host David Letterman, whom McCain stood up last month.
"I screwed up," McCain said of his last-minute decision to cancel his appearance on CBS's "Late Show" last month, forcing Letterman to scramble to find a replacement guest.
Letterman, who's been laying into McCain every night since then, started in immediately last night when the candidate walked onstage at the Ed Sullivan Theater.
"Can you stay?" he asked, dripping cynicism.
"Depends on how bad it gets," McCain answered.
The candidate admitted he "screwed up" but bravely tried to suggest he'd done Letterman a favor by backing out of his previous date.
"Look at all the conversations I gave you . . . including having Mr. Olbermann on."
(MSNBC on-air talent Keith Olbermann, who had filled in after McCain told Letterman he had to rush back to Washington to save the melting-down economy, though he in fact went to be interviewed by Katie Couric, was shown standing in readiness backstage at yesterday's taping should McCain bail a second time.)
"I haven't had so much fun since my last interrogation," said McCain, a Vietnam War POW.
With regard to the current economic situation, which McCain stood up Letterman to return to Washington to fix, the candidate said Americans are "the victims of a drive-by shooting by Washington and Wall Street."
Really?
"Now's not the time to raise anybody's taxes -- except yours, and I guarantee when I'm president I'll do it," McCain told Letterman.
After that, the interview got a lot more heated:
Letterman pressed McCain for details about his debate remark that he knows how to get Osama bin Laden.
"In 19 days. I'll be elected . . . look --" McCain tried to joke.
"Bin Laden. Let's just start there," Letterman persisted.
"First of all, obviously, you don't want to say exactly, but the point --"
"But you have a plan," Letterman said.
"I know what we need to do, okay?" McCain responded. ". . . I think I know, because of my many years being involved in these issues, how to develop a plan. One of the areas, of course, is human intelligence, which we're very badly lacking. And I am confident that we can get him."
McCain also said Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was "absolutely" his "first choice" for vice president, while adding, "I didn't know her well at all -- I knew her by reputation."
But is Palin "the woman to lead us through the next 9/11 attack," Letterman wondered.
"Absolutely," McCain said. "She has inspired Americans. That's the thing we need."
After discussing Barack Obama's relationship with former Weather Underground member William Ayers, Letterman brought up McCain's relationship with G. Gordon Liddy, convicted in the Watergate scandal.
"I met him, you know, I mean," McCain said.
"Didn't you attend a fundraiser at his house?"
"Gordon Liddy's?" McCain asked.
They cut to commercial.
Coming back, McCain said, "I know Gordon Liddy. He paid his debt, he went to prison, he paid his debt. . . . I'm not in any way embarrassed to know Gordon Liddy."
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By John Paul Filo -- Cbs Via Reuters; After bailing out on a "Letterman" appearance last month, John McCain finally makes it back last night.
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The Washington Post
October 17, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
As McCain's Road Gets Steeper, Obama Warns of Overconfidence
BYLINE: Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A08
LENGTH: 1191 words
DATELINE: NEW YORK, Oct. 16
Republican John McCain may have stayed on the offensive during his final debate with Democrat Barack Obama, but for the last 19 days of the presidential campaign he will be playing nothing but defense.
The global financial crisis, coupled with Obama's steady performance through the three presidential debates, has left McCain with an extremely difficult path to the White House. Absent his ability to pick off any state won by the Democrats four years ago, he must prevent Obama from winning any of half a dozen Republican states that now appear vulnerable.
Republican strategists see trouble almost everywhere, facing the prospect of not only losing the White House but seeing Democratic majorities in the House and Senate grow as well. That could force a competition for resources during the final weeks, but strategists said a McCain comeback would be most helpful in relieving some of the pressure on other GOP candidates.
"The Republican brand's in trouble for all these guys," said Alex Castellanos, a party strategist. "It seems like an eternity ago, but it was only a few weeks, that the Republican brand was defined as populist, outsiders, McCain-Palin who are going to change Washington. Now we're back to a Republican brand that is George Bush, economy, and Wall Street and Washington insiders. That's hurt everybody."
The Republican National Committee's independent-expenditure ad unit, which is not legally permitted to coordinate with McCain, will spend $18 million over 18 days in just eight states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Colorado. All but Pennsylvania voted Republican in 2004.
Without a shift of voters back toward McCain, Republican candidates and party leaders may be forced in the next two weeks to confront the question of whether they should move more money to targeted congressional races to hold down anticipated losses in the House or Senate, or continue to try to hold the line for McCain in the Republican battlegrounds.
On the day after their clash at Hofstra University, Obama warned his supporters against overconfidence, while McCain sought to convince his that, despite national and state polls that show him trailing, there is time enough left to turn the race back in his direction.
Both campaigned in states won by the Democrats four years ago -- McCain in Pennsylvania, Obama in New Hampshire -- before returning here to appear Thursday night at the Al Smith Dinner, where they were expected to poke fun at themselves and each other.
But there was little levity on the GOP side about the plight of McCain and his campaign. The political climate has worsened, the electoral battlegrounds have shifted away from him over the past two weeks, and Obama enjoys a significant advantage in money to spend on television ads and voter mobilization.
At this point, strategists in both camps have virtually conceded Iowa and New Mexico, two states won narrowly by Bush in 2004, to Obama. McCain's campaign and the RNC still point to Pennsylvania and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire as potential pickups. But McCain has so many red states to defend that he may not have either the time or the money to convert Democratic turf.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that, in addition to Iowa and New Mexico, he feels increasingly good about Virginia and Colorado. If Obama holds all the states Democrats won in 2004 and adds Iowa and New Mexico to his column, then he will need only one of those two to win the election. "The fact that both Virginia and Colorado have strengthened for us strategically could not be more important," he said.
But that also leaves Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri as potential wins, and Plouffe said the Obama campaign will go after not just the seven red states where the RNC has decided to make a stand in McCain's behalf but also such states as Nevada, West Virginia and Montana. "I think where this is headed is they're going to have to hold on to all the Bush states and play exclusively defense," he said.
McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt did not try to play down the obstacles his candidate faces but said he thinks the senator from Arizona remains in the fight. Schmidt said his reading of the election is that McCain is now running behind Obama by four to six points nationally.
"There is no question that we are operating in a political environment that is much more challenging for the McCain campaign than the Obama campaign," he said. "But despite the challenging environment, they have not been able to put the race away. We are within striking distance with every ability to win this election."
Obama sought to pump up his supporters with a stern message not to take the race for granted. "For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire," he told top contributors at a fundraising breakfast at the Metropolitan Club in New York, referring to his surprise loss to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primary there. "I've been in these positions before when we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked."
Though Obama spent his day in New Hampshire, his schedule this week speaks to the campaign's confidence. The Democrat spent three days in Toledo preparing for the final debate. He travels to Roanoke on Friday, heads to St. Louis and Kansas City on Saturday, and goes to Fayetteville, N.C., on Sunday.
McCain took his debate performance to the Philadelphia suburbs, where he talked about "Joe," the Ohio plumber who became the focal point of Thursday's debate. McCain railed against Obama for wanting to raise taxes, a mistake that he said would plunge the country from recession to depression.
"I thought I did pretty well," McCain said. "The real winner last night was Joe the Plumber. Joe's the man. He won, and small businesses won across America. . . . The American people are not going to let Senator Obama raise their taxes."
Schmidt said that Obama's comments to the Ohio plumber last week, in which the senator from Illinois said he wants to spread the wealth to more Americans, were "anathema" to the American people and set up a sharp contrast for the last weeks of campaigning. "Obama has every potential to tax and spend the country into a depression, and we will focus acutely on that," Schmidt said.
McCain faces challenges in so many states that Republican strategists said there is no state-by-state answer to his problem. "He's too far in the hole," said Mike Murphy, a former McCain adviser. "He has to move the whole country his way to get back in the game, and at that point the North Carolina-type problems will fade and he will be back in battle in places like Colorado, Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada."
But Plouffe said he thinks Obama is actually stronger in the battleground states than he is nationally, thanks to a months-long focus on building individual campaigns in each of those places. "We believe we are disproportionately strong in the battlegrounds," he said.
Staff writers Chris Cillizza in Washington and Michael D. Shear in New York contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
Where Prescription Drugs and Doctor's Appointments Don't Mix;
__
BYLINE: Al Kamen
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A23
LENGTH: 1254 words
Ken Johnson, senior vice president for communications and public affairs at the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), the giant drug lobby, is trying to clamp down on what he sees as staff abuse of administrative leave.
So he sent his 20 staffers a sharply worded e-mail ordering everyone to get approval well in advance if they want to take some time off. "In the future," he said, "if you send me an email at 1:00 pm. saying you have a doctor's appointment at 3:00 pm, you had better be dying or it will count toward your vacation time."
"Requests to attend to family matters," he continued in the Oct. 2 missive, "or other personal matters, religious holidays and anything of a similar nature must also be approved in advance. Additionally, all vacation requests must continue to be submitted in advance as well."
Johnson, asked about his unusual management style, said the company's human resources department had already "told me that wasn't the appropriate way to word it, but they understand my dark sense of humor."
Johnson said the e-mail was sparked by his having seen an aide walk into a nearby department store. But when he inquired as to the aide's whereabouts, he was told the fellow was at a doctor's appointment.
"In retrospect, I violated my own cardinal rule never to put it in an e-mail," Johnson said. "I should have just gone in and ball-and-chained the person to his desk."
"I push my people pretty hard some times, but the tone was meant to be a jest. Obviously someone didn't take it that way. I have never denied anyone's request for personal leave for any reason," he said, "vacation, religious holiday or just time off to get away from me."
Which isn't easy with a ball and chain.
Security and Numbers
Should Barack Obama be lucky -- or unlucky -- enough to win the presidency, he's going to find the transition process a lot easier than Bill Clinton or George W. Bush did. Both predecessors inherited a government run by the opposition party, obliging them to clear out most anyone left on Jan. 20 and then refill several hundred key jobs as fast as they could.
That meant waiting for FBI clearance checks, with delays of up to two months, before people could be named to top posts or have their names sent to the Senate for confirmation.
Obama would inherit similar circumstances, of course. But the 2004 Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act, passed as part of the post-9/11 Commission reforms, allows both candidates, after they are formally nominated, to submit an unspecified number of requests for security clearances for prospective transition-team members "who will have a need for access to classified" info.
That obviously applies to folks working on transition teams involving national security -- the Pentagon, the State Department, the Department of Homeland Security and the intelligence agencies. But it's fuzzy enough to sweep in many more who'll be involved in the Department of Health and Human Services (biochem and all that), Transportation, Treasury, and the Justice Department -- along with the White House itself. It could include chiefs of staff, counsels and others who might need the clearance.
In all, the number could be anywhere from 100 to 200 people, and the Obama transition has been sending names over to the bureau for some time. (Unclear whether the McCain transition team has taken similar advantage of this opportunity, but they would not necessarily be confronting a near-void at senior positions.) The law says the FBI should complete the investigations by the day after the election, a manageable deadline at least for those people who held clearances in the Clinton administration.
Since many transition-team members have been known to move into top jobs where Senate confirmation is necessary, this should also speed nominations and reduce the number of "home alone" Cabinet members, a problem at some agencies that can last for several months after Inauguration Day.
Faster Than a FEMA Trailer
It's getting down to the wire for people with old television sets to switch to digital before the Feb. 17 deadline. A just-completed Consumers Union poll shows general awareness of the impending change to be 93 percent. Given that, some folks at the Federal Communications Commission think resources should now go to a system to answer calls and to assist seniors, the disabled, non-English speakers and others with their converter boxes and such.
But FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, back home yesterday in Charlotte, a hotbed of NASCAR activity, announced a nifty new public awareness project to have the FCC sponsor NASCAR driver David Gilliland and put a digital awareness ad on his No. 38 Ford in three races, starting Sunday.
FCC folks, alluding to idle chatter that Martin may be thinking of a run for GOP Rep. Sue Myrick's seat when she retires, are wondering about the NASCAR gambit, which is budgeted at $355,000. Martin, in his news release, said it's "an extremely effective way" to make sure racing fans know about the switch.
Upper House or Big House?
Back in much happier times, specifically on April 12, 2007, a couple of dozen senators rose on the floor of the chamber to pay tribute to Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) during the week he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history.
Senator after senator rose to pay homage to the man they reverentially called "The King of Pork." Counting those who later added their tributes, some 30 of his colleagues rose to honor Stevens. All but four were Republican. The Democrats included his close friend Sen. Daniel Inouye (Hawaii), who noted that he and Stevens "have received the crown of being 'pork men of the year.' We are number one in add-ons in the U.S. Senate."
Sen. Robert Byrd (W.Va.) called Stevens "a man of immense integrity, high personal principles and unqualified honesty." There were warm toasts from Sen. Edward Kennedy (Mass.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.).
Now Stevens's Senate career may be in the hands of 12 residents of the District of Columbia, the jury in his trial in federal court on charges of failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts and home improvements he received from a pal at an oil services company.
If the jury finds him not guilty, the political pundits say, he may well retain his seat. He's only slightly behind in the polls as it is. If he's convicted, well, there may be some lawmakers who'll want to, as they say, "revise and extend" their remarks.
Democrats' Good News, Bad News
Speaking of legal and ethical matters, Democrats are bemoaning the increasingly kinky news out of Florida, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney enjoyed a healthy lead until news broke of his alleged affair with, and alleged subsequent payments to, a former staffer. And then there were reports of an alleged affair with another woman.
This is in the district long represented by Republican Mark Foley, who was forced to give it up after certain e-mails surfaced involving male ex-pages. (What's with that district? The water? The heat?) So that district, which leans GOP anyway, appears lost to the Dems. There are reports that the party is pulling the plug.
But the upside is that they stand to save maybe more than $1 million they would have spent on ad buys in a fairly expensive media market, trying to hold it for Mahoney. That money now can be spent on other candidates.
On the other hand, the Democrats have so much money they wouldn't even notice the savings.
Must be nice.
Research editor Alice Crites contributed to this column.
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Who's Playing the Race Card?
BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer
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Let me get this straight. A couple of agitated yahoos in a rally of thousands yell something offensive and incendiary, and John McCain and Sarah Palin are not just guilty by association -- with total strangers, mind you -- but worse: guilty according to the New York Times of "race-baiting and xenophobia."
But should you bring up Barack Obama's real associations -- 20 years with Jeremiah Wright, working on two foundations and distributing money with William Ayers, citing the raving Michael Pfleger as one who helps him keep his moral compass (Chicago Sun-Times, April 2004) and the long-standing relationship with the left-wing vote-fraud specialist ACORN -- you have crossed the line into illegitimate guilt by association. Moreover, it is tinged with racism.
The fact that, when John McCain actually heard one of those nasty things said about Obama, he incurred the boos of his own crowd by insisting that Obama is "a decent person . . . that you do not have to be scared [of] as president" makes no difference. It surely did not stop John Lewis from comparing McCain to George Wallace.
The search for McCain's racial offenses is untiring and often unhinged. Remember McCain's Berlin/celebrity ad that showed a shot of Paris Hilton? An appalling attempt to exploit white hostility at the idea of black men "becoming sexually involved with white women," fulminated New York Times columnist Bob Herbert. He took to TV to denounce McCain's exhumation of that most vile prejudice, pointing out McCain's gratuitous insertion in the ad of "two phallic symbols," the Washington Monument and the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
Except that Herbert was entirely delusional. There was no Washington Monument. There was no Leaning Tower. Just photographs seen in every newspaper in the world of Barack Obama's Berlin rally in the setting he himself had chosen, Berlin's Victory Column.
Herbert is not the only fevered one. On Tuesday night, Rachel Maddow of MSNBC and Jonathan Alter of Newsweek fell over themselves agreeing that the "political salience" of the Republican attack on ACORN is, yes, its unstated appeal to racial prejudice.
This about an organization that is being accused of voter registration fraud in about a dozen states. In Nevada, the investigating secretary of state is a Democrat. Is he playing the race card, too?
What makes the charges against McCain especially revolting is that he has been scrupulous in eschewing the race card. He has gone far beyond what is right and necessary, refusing even to make an issue of Obama's deep, self-declared connection with the race-baiting Rev. Wright.
In the name of racial rectitude, McCain has denied himself the use of that perfectly legitimate issue. It is simply Orwellian for him to be now so widely vilified as a stoker of racism. What makes it doubly Orwellian is that these charges are being made on behalf of the one presidential candidate who has repeatedly, and indeed quite brilliantly, deployed the race card.
How brilliantly? The reason Bill Clinton is sulking in his tent is because he feels that Obama surrogates succeeded in painting him as a racist. Clinton has many sins, but from his student days to his post-presidency, his commitment and sincerity in advancing the cause of African Americans have been undeniable. If the man Toni Morrison called the first black president can be turned into a closet racist, then anyone can.
And Obama has shown no hesitation in doing so to McCain. Weeks ago, in Springfield, Mo., and elsewhere, he warned darkly that George Bush and John McCain were going to try to frighten you by saying that, among other scary things, Obama has "a funny name" and "doesn't look like all those other presidents on those dollar bills."
McCain has never said that, nor anything like that. When asked at the time to produce one instance of McCain deploying race, the Obama campaign could not. Yet here was Obama firing a preemptive charge of racism against a man who had not indulged in it. An extraordinary rhetorical feat, and a dishonorable one.
What makes this all the more dismaying is that it comes from Barack Obama, who has consistently presented himself as a healer, a man of a new generation above and beyond race, the man who would turn the page on the guilt-tripping grievance politics of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.
I once believed him.
·
Last week I wrote that in 1995 Bill Ayers gave Barack Obama a fundraiser in his home. I should instead have called it a campaign event.
letters@charleskrauthammer.com
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
'We Tried Not to Cross the Line of Truth';
'We Tried Not to Cross the Line of Truth'
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1250 words
DATELINE: NEW YORK
Oliver Stone is perhaps best known as the purveyor of compelling cinematic narratives of JFK and Nixon that had a loose association with the historical record. This time around, he is eager for his audience to understand that he is a rigorous fact-checker.
"Everything in the movie is annotated," Stone asserts during an interview Wednesday as he asks an assistant to retrieve a notebook containing the backup for all the scenes in "W.," his new biopic about George W. Bush, which opens Friday. The material will be posted on the movie's Web site, he says, and the world will see that though the director has taken certain liberties for dramatic effect, his basic findings and themes flow directly from the considerable body of work already published about Bush and his presidency.
"We're dramatists. I don't claim to be a historian or a documentarian," says Stone, looking intense and a tad disheveled the morning after the red-carpet premiere of his movie in Manhattan. "But we did read everything we could, and we tried not to cross the line of truth."
That proposition will surely be questioned for a movie that invents dialogue between Bush and his advisers in the Oval Office, speculates about the dreams that may haunt the president and presents a Freudian explanation for the invasion of Iraq as some kind of payback for a life-long series of resentments Bush has nursed against his dad, former president George H.W. Bush.
The release of "W." will also test whether there's any remaining commercial interest in a president whose approval ratings have bottomed out in recent months. By Stone's own telling, a number of Hollywood studios passed on the project, convinced there wasn't a market for a movie about Bush, leaving the 62-year-old director to finance the enterprise through foreign investors.
Even so, Stone is convinced that he still has a fantastic story to tell, the details of which he claims are still unknown by many Americans. "He's a character that you couldn't make up, bigger than fiction," Stone says, a fleck of his preppy upbringing in Connecticut and New York still audible in his voice. "He's bumbled his way into this mess -- into this extraordinary nightmare. Frank Capra could not make this up. He's the reverse of 'Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.' "
"It's a great story, for Chrissake," Stone goes on. "Mark Twain would tell it. Dickens would tell it. How could you ignore this guy? They ask me about Obama and McCain every day. . . . God, these are pygmies compared to what he has done. They are going to live in his shadow for a while."
Stone's obvious interest in the psychological roots of his character, a fascination Bush and his father famously detest, has Bushworld ready to trash a project few have actually seen. "From what I have seen from the script and from I have seen of the trailers, this is how the lunatic asylum inmates would write it," says Karl Rove, Bush's onetime political adviser. "It is so laughable to suggest that the actions of this president are driven by a dysfunctional relationship with his father."
Asked for her reaction, White House press secretary Dana Perino says only that "The Post's readers will understand that we have more important things to do than comment on this ridiculous movie."
Still, Stone's movie is probably more nuanced than the president's defenders might expect from a director they see as a kooky left-winger. Stone has tried to debunk some of the traditional stereotypes about Bush -- in particular the notion that he's been led around by the nose by Dick Cheney or Rove. A number of scenes make clear Stone's view that Bush is the dominant player in these relationships and that Bush is shrewder than his critics will concede.
As portrayed by Josh Brolin, Stone's Bush, while perhaps goofier than the real president, also conveys the powerful charisma that propelled the onetime black sheep of the Bush family to the presidency after his alcohol-dominated younger days. "He's oddly likable," Stone says. "I am empathetic, not sympathetic."
The empathy may stem from some shared personal experiences. Both Bush and Stone grew up as the children of privilege (Stone was the son of a wealthy stockbroker). Both matriculated at Yale in 1964, though Stone would drop out and later volunteered for combat duty in Vietnam. Bush finished his degree and headed south, where he avoided the war by serving in the Texas and Alabama Air National Guard.
Stone, whose Vietnam experience fueled some of his most successful work ("Platoon," "Born on the Fourth of July"), says he did not know Bush at Yale but "knew the type" -- "retrograde" frat boy, as he puts it. They met once, in 1999, when Stone was invited to a Bush fundraiser in Los Angeles. After the event, Stone met privately with the then-Texas governor and says he came away charmed and convinced that Bush would be elected president the next year.
Stone says the movie relied heavily on journalistic accounts of Bush that he says have broken through a "veil" of secrecy surrounding the administration; he cites in particular Bob Woodward's books, an account of prewar spin by Michael Isikoff and David Corn, Ron Suskind's "The One Percent Doctrine," and books by New York Times correspondents Michael Gordon and James Risen.
"We could not have made this movie without those breakthroughs -- those books," Stone says. He also says he got little cooperation from anyone in the Bush family or the administration, not surprising given his leftist reputation; he does say he got some technical assistance from unidentified people in the military who helped him structure a key scene in the situation room.
There will be much that purists for accuracy won't like about this movie. Bush does not call his dad "Poppy," as the imaginary president does, nor does the elder Bush call his son "Junior." Stone and screenwriter Stanley Weiser take real quotes and place them in different contexts; they have Laura Bush telling her future husband, "I read. I smoke. I admire," a comment she actually made to Bush's grandmother. Nor did Rove routinely attend national security meetings, as the movie suggests, and he's a more robust figure in real life than as portrayed by Toby Jones, perhaps best known for playing Truman Capote in a previous film.
More seriously, Stone's account almost certainly overstates the amount of formal debate inside the administration about the decision to go to war in Iraq, and assigns to former secretary of state Colin Powell (played well by Jeffrey Wright) a much more vigorous role as war skeptic than the historical record so far seems to support. Stone concedes as much, saying he elevated Powell's role to sharpen the dramatic tension. But he says he captured the essential truth -- that, as he puts it, Powell was rolled by Bush and signed off on the invasion.
Similarly, Stone believes he's on target about the fundamental nature of the Bush-Rove relationship, what he describes as an intense "heterosexual attraction" between the pol and his closest adviser. Yet while he describes Rove as "Bush's brain," he says Bush is "in charge" and is not "this manipulated guy."
"I am sure he will be pleasantly surprised that he's not as ugly as he's perceived," Stone says of Rove, somewhat quixotically. "I think he's far uglier, and I think we gave him the benefit of the doubt, like we did with Powell."
Stone says his departures from literal truth were reasonable accommodations to heighten dramatic interest: "I think we got the overall thing right."
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Sidney Ray Baldwin -- Lionsgate; Director Oliver Stone, left, consults with the cinematic George W. Bush, played by Josh Brolin. "Everything in the movie is annotated," the director says.
IMAGE; By Chris Pizzello -- Associated Press
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The Washington Post
October 17, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
After Debate, Glare Of Media Hits Joe;
Plumbers Union, Tax Collectors Notice
BYLINE: Robert Barnes; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 940 words
"The real winner" of Wednesday night's debate, John McCain said yesterday at a campaign stop in Downingtown, Pa., "was Joe the Plumber."
That might depend on the definition of "winner."
Joe the Plumber, a.k.a. Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher of Holland, Ohio, is suddenly (sort of) a household name, featured in a McCain ad and sought after by networks news anchors and newspaper reporters. McCain would like to meet him in person this weekend, but Wurzelbacher's got a date on Mike Huckabee's Fox News show and might not have the time.
But the emergence of Joe has allowed the state of Ohio to locate the man it says owes nearly $1,200 in back taxes. His motives for confronting Sen. Barack Obama at a campaign stop in his neighborhood earlier this week are the subject of intense Internet speculation. The city of Toledo is preparing a letter to his employer seeking to determine whether he is violating city codes, and the plumbers union is on his tail.
"Joe the Plumber really isn't a plumber," said Thomas Joseph, business manager of Local 50 of the United Association of Plumbers, Steamfitters and Service Mechanics, whose national membership has endorsed Obama.
Wurzelbacher, 34, had already taken tentative steps onto the national stage after talking to Obama on Sunday as the Democrat toured his suburban neighborhood outside Toledo. Wurzelbacher told Obama that he wants to buy the plumbing company he works for, and that his potential income of more than $250,000 would make him eligible for increased taxes under Obama's proposals.
"Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn't it?" Wurzelbacher asked.
Obama's answer to that and a question about the flat tax -- that Obama thought it better to "spread the wealth around" -- captured the attention of conservative media and the McCain campaign.
"Joe wants to buy the business that he has been in for all of these years, worked 10, 12 hours a day," McCain told Obama at the start of Wednesday night's debate. "And he wanted to buy the business, but he looked at your tax plan and he saw that he was going to pay much higher taxes," deferring what McCain called "the American dream."
Joe the Plumber quickly became a metaphor for the middle class, and between them, McCain and Obama mentioned him more than two dozen times.
The result was an avalanche of attention: "CBS Evening News" anchor Katie Couric on the phone, "Good Morning America" awaiting an interview, reporters in the driveway of his modest home.
"I'm completely flabbergasted with this whole thing," he told reporters. He did not return a phone call from The Washington Post.
The morning also showed that the spotlight can be unwelcome. Reporters wondering who Wurzelbacher is quickly found that he owes the state of Ohio $1,182 in back taxes, leading sharp-tongued liberal commentators to say he was not so much concerned about rising taxes as paying taxes at all. (A spokeswoman for the state said it is possible Wurzelbacher did not know about the lien.)
Wurzelbacher also acknowledged to reporters that he did not have a plumber's license but said he did not need one to do residential work with the two-man Newell Heating and Plumbing Co., which does have a license.
David Golis, a manager in Toledo's office of building inspections, said that is incorrect. "We were just discussing that we will send a letter to the owner of Newell reminding him" of the city's requirement that all who do plumbing work be licensed or in apprentice or journeyman programs, Golis said.
Union manager Joseph said that Wurzelbacher applied for an apprentice program in 2003 but never completed the work.
And Wurzelbacher told reporters that the goal of buying the business was more aspirational than firm. He said his income is "not even close" to the levels at which Obama's proposed tax increases would kick in.
Even if Wurzelbacher's hypothetical were true, tax experts said it is unclear whether he would pay higher taxes under Obama's plan.
Wurzelbacher told Couric that it is Obama's approach to tax increases that are worrisome. "When's he going to decide that $100,000 is too much, you know?" the divorced father of a 13-year-old son said. "I mean, you're on a slippery slope here. You vote on somebody who decides that $250,000 and you're rich? And $100,000 and you're rich? I mean, where does it end?"
McCain senior adviser Matt McDonald said Thursday that the Republican nominee had mentioned Wurzelbacher's encounter with Obama in a previous speech, but the campaign had not said he would be the centerpiece of McCain's debate performance.
That Wurzelbacher is not a licensed plumber or that his situation is not relevant to Obama's tax proposal did not give him pause, McDonald said. "He's a guy who asked a question that needed to be asked," McDonald said. "He's not a campaign staffer; he's not a surrogate. He's not someone who was vetted, and this wasn't something orchestrated by the campaign."
Appearing on CBS's "Late Show With David Letterman" on Thursday night, McCain mentioned the attention Joe the Plumber was getting and said, "Joe, if you're watching, I'm sorry."
Earlier in the day in New Hampshire, Obama said McCain advocates tax plans that favor the rich.
"He's trying to suggest that a plumber is the guy he's fighting for," Obama said. "How many plumbers do you know that are making a quarter-million dollars a year?"
Wurzelbacher has made that he is conservative and no fan of Obama -- he told Couric that Obama's answer to his question was a "tap dance" that was "almost as good as Sammy Davis Jr." -- but declined to say who he will be voting for Nov. 4.
That is between him and the lever in the voting booth, he said.
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
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October 17, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Two Answers to the Question 'More of the Same?'
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A10
LENGTH: 611 words
MCCAIN AD
McCain: The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they? I'll make the next four better. Your savings, your job and your financial security are under siege.
Washington is making it worse -- bankrupting us with their spending. Telling us paying higher taxes is "patriotic"? And saying we need to "spread the wealth around"? They refuse common-sense solutions for energy independence.
So every day we send billions to the Middle East. We need a new direction, and I have a plan. Your savings. We'll rebuild them. Your investments. They'll grow again. Energy. We'll drill here, and we'll create a renewable-energy economy. Lower taxes and less spending will protect your job and create new ones. That'll restore our country.
Stand up with me, let's fight for America.
OBAMA AD
McCain: Senator Obama, I am not President Bush.
Narrator: True, but you did vote with Bush 90 percent of the time. Tax breaks for big corporations and the wealthy. But almost nothing for the middle class -- same as Bush. Keep spending 10 billion a month in Iraq while our own economy struggles -- same as Bush. You may not be George Bush, but . . . (McCain:) I voted with the president over 90 percent of the time, higher than a lot of my even Republican colleagues.
ANALYSIS
Both candidates, in these quickie spots after their final debate, are tackling the question of whether a McCain administration would differ little from that of President Bush. John McCain's 60-second ad contains a remarkable admission for a Republican candidate, essentially declaring the two terms of the president of his party a failure. In declaring that he'll make "the next four better," the senator from Arizona is trying to distance himself not just from specific Bush policies but from the president himself. If Washington is "bankrupting us with their spending," as McCain says, it is Bush who was in charge, along with a Republican Congress for six of the eight years.
McCain undercuts his case by not explaining whom he is quoting. The line about how paying taxes is "patriotic" comes from Barack Obama's running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Obama made the "spread the wealth" comment in discussing tax policy with the man whom McCain kept invoking in Wednesday's debate, "Joe the Plumber" from Ohio. The effect is just to blame the country's direction on "Washington" -- where McCain has been a member of Congress for 26 years -- rather than draw a sharp contrast with the Democratic ticket. McCain is not specific about his economic and energy plans, but his promise of "lower spending" fails to acknowledge that he recently voted for the $700 billion federal bailout of the banking system. Obama's 30-second ad is effective because it ties his opponent to Bush by using McCain's own words. The senator from Illinois is being selective in charging that McCain would shower tax breaks on "big corporations and the wealthy." By extending the Bush tax cuts, McCain would continue the lower rates for all businesses and individuals who pay taxes, although the most affluent would receive the biggest share. The ad says McCain would continue to spend $10 billion a month on Iraq but sidesteps the fact that Obama would also have to spend billions on the war because, under his best-case scenario, it would take 16 months to withdraw all U.S. troops. But no one can argue with McCain himself declaring that he's voted with Bush 90 percent of the time, when he was still trying to win the GOP nomination. The focus of these dueling ads is at the heart of the campaign: whether McCain credibly represents change, or more of the same.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 17, 2008 Friday 12:00 PM EST
The Financial Crisis And You: Effects on the Election
BYLINE: Sebastian Mallaby, Council on Foriegn Relations; Washington Post columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3494 words
HIGHLIGHT: Post columnist Sebastian Mallaby was online Friday, Oct. 17 at noon ET to take your questions and comments about how the current financial turmoil will impact the presidential and congressional races and the outcome of the election.
Post columnist Sebastian Mallaby was online Friday, Oct. 17 at noon ET to take your questions and comments about how the current financial turmoil will impact the presidential and congressional races and the outcome of the election.
A transcript follows.
Sebastian Mallaby is a biweekly columnist for The Post, specializing in globalization, trade, investment trends, international development and economic policy. His column appears every other Monday. A member of the paper's editorial board from 1999-2007, Mallaby now directs the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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Arlington, Va.: From everything I've read on this horrible financial crisis, including news reports from a few years back, it looks like certain officials from the Clinton administration and several Democrats on Capitol Hill bear significant responsibility for putting bad policies into place and resisting calls for regulatory reform. We can't do anything about the Clinton officials, but we can do something about the Democrats still in Congress who resisted regulatory reform and protected Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Are there any grassroots efforts or any public interest groups forming to put a spotlight on the members of Congress and hold them accountable? Thank you.
Sebastian Mallaby: Hi, I'm not an expert on grass roots movements, but I think your account of who's responsible is only partly right. The Clinton Treasury shared the view that Fannie and Freddie were too big; people in Congress, mainly Dems but by no means only, were the ones who protected Fannie and Freddie, and even pushed them to lend more aggressively to people with dubious credit. I guess members such as Barney Frank are not about to lose their seats in this election, so I'm not sure what citizens' best method of pressuring them is.
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Washington, D.C.: Which was more fun, predicting economic destruction at the Economist or the WP?
Sebastian Mallaby: Both The Economist and the Washington Post are great places to work. Predicting economic destruction is less fun, but unfortunately it can be necessary.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: We've gone from the "it's the economy, stupid" to "it's this stupid economy." Has anyone correlated economic indicators with the polls? It seems when the market was crashing Obama gained in the polls. Once the market began rebounding, McCain rebounded. Is this anecdotal or can anyone find any statistical correlation?
Sebastian Mallaby: I think it's pretty well recognized that good economies favor the incumbent party and bad ones favor the challengers. Clinton won in 1992 partly by running on the economy and blaming the downturn, which actually had ended by the time of the election, on Bush the elder. He cruised to victory in 1996 because the economy was going great then. Gore was in the dog house until his climate change comeback because he managed to lose in 2000 despite a strong economy.
Of course, when you have the White House incumbent leaving office one could argue that blame for a bad economy could favor either side. I think McCain is suffering partly because he is from Bush's party and Obama has spent oodles on painting McCain as a continuation of Bush. But McCain might now be faring better if he was himself more fluent on the economy and had put together a better team of advisers. There was a revealing poll of academic economists published in The Economist recently. Not only did the vast majority of economists support Obama over McCain. Even Republican economists said that Obama's economic policies were superior.
When you consider that Obama's economic policies actually have considerable flaws--for example his populist anti-trade stuff--this is a remarkable indictment of McCain.
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Anonymous:"It's the economy, stupid" worked for Clinton, yet most of the elections over the past half century have been won by fear. We need to be protected from "wolves in the forest." Whether it is communists, murdering parolees, or terrorists, the Republicans have been there to remind us just before election day that we voters need their protection from these fears. Seeing how McCain improves as the market improves, how much might fear replace the economy? I see the robocalls and commercials reminding me that while Obama is not a terrorist, he just hangs up with a terrorist, and remember, Barak Hussein Obama is not really an Arab.
Sebastian Mallaby: You are right that people vote their fears. After 9/11, the fear was terrorism. Today, the fear is job loss, melting 401Ks, etc. This is why Obama is winning.
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Chicago: Hey Sebastian, I am curious about what you think the foreign policy implications are for the financial crisis. If we ever got to the point where foreigners balked at buying our debt, would the Iraq occupation have to come to a rapid close? Do you believe the financial version of MAD will allow us to borrow from the rest of the world for the foreseeable future?
Sebastian Mallaby: This is really great question. I have tried to think through the foreign policy implications of the financial crisis with some smart collaborators on a Council on Foreign Relations online Forum--see www.cfr.org/forum. Since that discussion was conducted, we've seen the Iceland episode play out: Even though Iceland is a NATO member, neither the US nor the IMF bailed that country out; instead it looks as though Russia will come to the rescue. What does Russia want in return? Maybe it wants Iceland to block Georgia's or Ukraine's entry into NATO? Anyone who's interested in that question should check on the "Featured Issue" on www.cfr.org/cgs.
You ask the question about US debt and power. Russia and China opposed the US operation in Iraq while financing it by buying US Treasury bonds and other US securities. Will this go on? For the moment, you can see that the dollar has recovered the value it lost in the first half of the year, so there's no real sign of money deserting US assets. But in the future, who knows? I'm inclined to think that foreigners bought US assets because they believed in the excellent regulation and transparency of US capital markets. After this bust, they may think again--assuming that there are better alternatives out there.
Anyone who really wants to learn about the interactions of US debt and power should check out the recent report by Brad Setser, which got a good write up recently from Steve Coll in the New Yorker. See www.cfr.org/publication/17074/sovereign_wealth_and_sovereign_power.html
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New Jersey: I have seen plenty of acknowledgments from all sides that "the system has failed," or "our economic landscape has changed forever."
Yet every effort seems to be directed at shocking the same old system back to life and "restoring confidence" in, yes, The System. Isn't this a contradiction?
I haven't any confidence in the system any more. There is blatant manipulation and insider trading going on. I feel I am being cheated whenever I make any sort of decision.
Is anyone (any politician or policy-maker) promising that The System itself will be changed significantly? In ways that will impede the ability of financial firms to control so much? Is that what the government stake will accomplish?
Sebastian Mallaby: You are right that there is a difference between crisis management--preventing a melt down--and fixing the system in the longer term. In the short term we just need to get money flowing through the system by having the central banks lend on very easy terms. But in the long term we want to discourage these pyramids of debt: lending will have to get more restrictive. There's no easy way out of this tension between long and short term.
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Washington, D.C.: Assuming Barack wins, how would you expect Paulson to transition with Jim Wolfensohn as Treasury Secretary, if Wolfensohn is actually displeased with his current work for the Clinton organization?
Sebastian Mallaby: Wolfensohn for Treasury secretary is a new one on me.... But having written a book about the guy, I guess I wouldn't exclude anything.
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Sugar Land, Tex.: Would you agree that Congressional Democrats and Republicans alike created dishonest accounting, legislated lower credit standards and hamstrung regulatory enforcement in order to stimulate consumer borrowing/spending in order to produce the economic expansion necessary to generate tax revenues that Congress needed to finance its addiction to spending.
And that Congressional actions and inaction created the environment for the first wealth meltdown, the dot-com securities market meltdown, and the current sub-prime mortgage market meltdown.
And that another wealth meltdown, is likely to occur as a result of Congress' failure to address the looming Medicare and Social Security crisis?
Sebastian Mallaby: There's some truth here. First, I certainly agree that the long term Medicare/Soc Sec cost has to be addressed, and that by building up those long term promises to folks without figuring out how to pay for them, the government is behaving like a family that took out a mortgage with a vicious reset on the interest rate that it could never pay for. Second, I think it's true that the government, including the Fed, was too tolerant of build ups of debt in the past. The dot-com bust encouraged the Fed to believe that it could clean up asset bubbles after they popped relatively painlessly. Well, it ain't painless this time.
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Princeton, N.J.: Fannie and Freddie were not the cause of the subprime mess. They didn't buy any subprimes until two years after the private banks went wild (think "New Century"). They never held a significant portion of their portfolio in those loans. The cause was lack of regulation and enforcement on the mortgage brokers and investment banks. This was due to conservative philosophy that the "free market" always is best, not the liberal philosophy that the poor and middle class deserve a fair shake.
Sebastian Mallaby: This is a serious assertion, but I don't fully agree with it. You are right that private mortgage lenders did most of the subprime stuff and also that they led the process, with Fannie and Freddie following. But it is still a fact that F and F bought hundreds of billions of dollars of subprime paper. And if you count subprime as including semi-bad stuff, you get to a number like $1 trillion of dubious loans, or one third of the bad paper that was created in the bubble. So we can debate how much F and F were responsible, but they certainly played a role. And many people say that they conferred a feeling of legitimacy on the sector. European banks felt okay about buying CDOs because Fannie and Freddie were buying them.
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Washington, D.C.: What IS the principal reason for the economic collapse? Is it fair to blame McCain for it?
Sebastian Mallaby: It's not fair to blame McCain. The collapse has its origins in loose monetary policy, and that was the Fed's fault. It was exacerbated by Fannie and Freddie, which McCain opposed. The trouble was also fueled by lax regulation of Wall Street, and I think both parties failed to lift a finger to change that. But although it is unfair to blame the crisis on McCain, it is nonetheless true that his responses to the crisis have been less measured than Obama's. One thing that infuriated me was when he demanded the resignation of the SEC chairman, Chris Cox. Trying to decapitate a government agency in the middle of a crisis is irresponsible.
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South Glastonbury, Conn.: I read today that the banks receiving MY money (which was supposed to be used to unfreeze the credit market) are going to hold/hoard the money, rather than putting it into the credit market.
Why is it no one of any political persuasion pushing to make bailout bucks contingent upon the recipient bank putting such monies in the lending market?
Sebastian Mallaby: Fair question, but the last thing we want is the government looking over banks' shoulders and telling them how much to lend and to whom. The British government is talking about that sort of oversight and I think it is a disaster. The point is that banks have plenty of incentive to lend, since interest rates for private borrowers are very high. When they judge it is safe to do so, the money will start flowing.
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Evanston, Ill.: If we are going into a sharp recession, why would the banks, even if recapitalized, start vigorous lending again? What's the risk that we get a bunch of Japanese-style zombie banks?
Sebastian Mallaby: I mentioned in my last answer that banks will eventually lend again because interest rates are very attractive. For example, I heard that you can earn more than 10 percent per year by lending to Morgan Stanley. So the extreme credit crunch that we've been experiencing for the past few weeks will subside if banks judge that other banks are not about to blow up. Beyond that, however, you are right that we are in a recession and so regular business lending will be more cautious than it was in the boom years, which now seem so distant.
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Anonymous: What do you think of the idea of the government paying money directly to lenders' homeowners equal to their negative equity instead of buying the mortgages outright? Methinks it would cost a lot less while infusing cash into lenders' coffers and hopefully spur a recovery in housing values as forclsoures decline.
Sebastian Mallaby: I'm sympathetic to the idea of helping home owners, and then letting that assistance trickle up to the banks that have lent to those same home owners. Politically, it would be nice to balance trickle down economics with a bit of trickle up economics. But the problem is practical. How would we judge the amount of negative equity, since house prices are hard to judge in this environment? Also, how would we answer the people who said this was an unfair reward to people who bought irresponsibly on no-doc loans? What about helping people who bought responsibly, or who did not buy at all because they did not want to overstretch? As I think through those questions, I come to favor fiscal stimulus-- a tax rebate for everyone. That would be fairer than just plugging the negative equity holes.
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washingtonpost.com: Sovereign Wealth and Sovereign Power - Council on Foreign Relations
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Princeton, NJ: You say (like everybody else), "I certainly agree that the long term Medicare/Soc Sec cost has to be addressed" I think these concerns have been overblown.
For SS, I am a mathematician and I believe we simply cannot make long term economic predictions. Remember "Surpluses as far as the eye can see"? Actually what is done are projections, i.e. IF A, B, and C happen, then D will happen with some probability. BUT A, B, and C depend on future events and are unknowable. This is why the SS projections when used as predictions are no better than reading the entrails of a goat.
As for health care, this is an easy problem at least for the medium term. It is one that has been solved by every other wealthy country. Other wealthy countries get much better health care as measured by all the basic public health statistics and they pay less than half the cost per patient. A more efficient system will at least put off the day when we have to make the really difficult decisions.
Sebastian Mallaby: On SS, surely you would agree that shaky projections about the future are better than no projections? In the absence of any projections at all, we couldn't plan anything. Besides, the SS actuaries have consistently reported, through good times and bad, that we face a looming problem.
On health, you are right that other countries do better. Last time I looked, the US spent 16 percent of GDP on health care while the OECD average was something like 11-12 percent, but the US had life expectancy that was no better. Some of that gap my reflect demographics--high immigration rate in the US, etc. But maybe half the gap reflects the staggering waste of the way we do health care in this country.
Politically, though, fixing health care is, uh, difficult.
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"And if you count subprime... : as including semi-bad stuff, you get to a number like $1 trillion of dubious loans, or one third of the bad paper that was created in the bubble."
Look, the most F & F spent on subprimes was in 2006 when under 15 percent of their investments were in subprimes. The Repubs want to put the blame on F & F because they believe the Dems were associated with them, and you have fallen for it. Same for CRA which was mainly against red-lining.
Sebastian Mallaby: The Sunday NYT a while back had a long investigative piece on this. A do not regard the NYT as part of the vast right wing conspiracy!
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Reston, Va.: A consumer base is needed in which personal debt is minimized. Incomes need to rise faster than inflation in order to enjoy true growth. The middle class bell curve we enjoyed in the '50s and '60s is gone.
The next global economic engine is probably China.
Sebastian Mallaby: Trouble is that if we want to minimize personal debt, we are going to go through a long period of doing something that we stopped doing a while back: saving. A higher household savings rate will mean lower demand and lower GDP growth, other things equal. This is part of the "great unwind" of excess debt that is going to have to happen in the financial sector too.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good afternoon. Inside baseball question here. Given the partisan breakdown in the House on the bailout package (it was significantly stronger with Dems than GOPs), is there any evidence that Wall Street political donors are shifting money from House Republicans to either House Democrats or Senate Republicans? How might this play out in the medium term, with reapportionment coming up after 2010? It just seems that if the House Republicans lost the financial backing of the financial industry AND have a less-white electorate every cycle AND face gerrymandering and retirements, that it'll be a long, long time until there are 200 House Republicans again.
Sebastian Mallaby: I think industries like to contribute to the winning party, so that explains part of the swing to the Dems. Remember that after 1994 people talked of a permanent Republican majority in Congress. I think the cycles change faster than such predictions would suggest.
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Rockville, Md.: Hi Sebastian- I'd love to hear a candidate say we're going to stop taxing savings. Sure some parameters would have to be set, but eliminating the taxes on money you're able to save -- after paying taxes on it -- would be a great thing for me and the economy in general I think. I know I'm dreaming, but what's wrong with the idea? (Except the fact we can't afford it -- although that doesn't prevent other crazy ideas from being proposed/promised.)
Sebastian Mallaby: There's some merit in a consumption tax. The problem is that it tends to be regressive. The forces out there in the globalized economy are pushing toward greater inequality, so I think we should hesitate before embracing tax plans that reinforce that.
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Portland, Ore.: The religious non-profit I've worked for the last 10 years is suffering from the current financial crisis and is considering laying off staff. The real issue for me is health insurance. I have two chronic genetically-related conditions that cost approximately $35,000/year to treat. I currently gross $42,000/year. Fortunately I have very good employer-provided health insurance, but no private insurer in their right mind would take me if I'm laid off.
COBRA? There is no way I could pay $887/month for it while unemployed. I'm fairly certain that if I lose my job I will be bankrupt within one year, and perhaps dead from lack of medical treatment within two.
Is there anything I can do to prevent this from happening? (The Oregon Health Plan is currently not taking anyone, and the last time it did, it was through a lottery which very few won.) I've been thinking and researching for months but have not come up with any solution. Can you please tell me one?
Sebastian Mallaby: I wish I could answer this question better. Your case makes the point that the current system is broken. If Obama's plan is enacted, there would be the option of buying into a government insurance program, hopefully at an affordable rate.
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Sebastian Mallaby: Thanks for all the questions, folks. It's been fun discussing this stuff with you.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 17, 2008 Friday 9:40 AM EST
A Leaky Argument
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2653 words
HIGHLIGHT: Surely I've got better things to do than to flush this column down the drain by yammering on about Joe the Plumber.
Surely I've got better things to do than to flush this column down the drain by yammering on about Joe the Plumber.
Actually, not at the moment.
The media simply swooned over Joe Wurzelbacher, regular guy from Ohio. Hard-working heartlander. Antithesis of a Wall Street shark or Washington lobbyist. John McCain kept mentioning him, and then Barack Obama kept mentioning him, and the next thing you know he's on with Katie Couric and Diane Sawyer.
I did find something odd about Joe-mania. Usually politicians find ordinary folks who perfectly symbolize the point they want to make. Joe told Obama at a rally that he objects to the Democrat's tax plan. But Joe's taxes wouldn't go up under Obama's plan, because he doesn't make anything close to 250K a year. (In fact, he took in $40,000 two years ago.) Joe doesn't want a hike in case he someday moves up the income ladder. But for McCain, that was close enough.
Joe was feeling the hot breath of the MSM on his neck for 12 hours or so. But soon it didn't smell so sweet.
The Toledo Blade: " 'Joe the Plumber' isn't a plumber -- at least not a licensed one, or a registered one."
And Politico: "Joe the Plumber really is no fan of paying taxes. According to records from the Lucas County (OH) Court of Common Pleas found by my colleague Avi Zenilman, Samuel J. Wurzelbacher has a lien placed against him to the tune of $1,182.92."
Ah -- his first name isn't even Joe. So much for Joe-mentum.
The plumber guy "suddenly found himself facing celebrity-level scrutiny" ( New York Times). He "conducted a string of media interviews while becoming the subject of Web speculation about his motives" ( Los Angeles Times). "Joe the plumber's 15 minutes of fame took a sour turn" ( Boston Globe). "Joe the plumber's story has some cracks" ( Chicago Tribune). "Unlicensed? Say It Ain't So, Joe" ( New York Post).
I wonder if he's raising his rates.
National Review's Jim Geraghty blames the "Obamabots" for "targeting" Joe:
"Thank God we live in a free country, where you can speak your mind on public issues, without fear that those who disagree will respond by exposing anything you've ever done that you regret or that could embarrass your family.
"Oh, wait, never mind. We have to know, according to some, about Joe the Plumber's tax lien, and how he doesn't have a license -- which, if the smear artists bothered to check the law, he only needs for commercial work, not residential work.
"This is the way our opponents operate now. Destroy anyone who stands in your way. Humiliate them. Make sure that anyone else who ever wants to skeptically question Barack Obama knows that every last bit of their dirty laundry will be aired for all the world to see. Bristol Palin, Trig Palin, -- hey, it's all fair game. They've got to make an example of them. Show them that this sort of dangerous speech won't be allowed in the New America."
Our opponents? Such as the Toledo Blade? And if the McCain camp is going to hold this fellow up as an exemplar, wouldn't it follow that journalists would ask a few questions about him?
Now for a broader look at the post-Hofstra coverage. I think we should be spending more time on the substance of McCain's attacks and whether they're valid. Too much of the chatter has been about how Obama remained cool and unruffled. So what? Is criticism of an opponent's tax policy valid only if he whines or cries or staggers backward? Yes, the candidates' demeanor matters, but part of our job is to explore what they say, and not just in fact-checking pieces. Will Obama's offhand "share the wealth" comment hurt? Where do the two candidates stand on abortion, which McCain brought up? Does Obama have a record of challenging his own party?
Instead, there's been too much Joe, Joe, Joe.
All right, I give in. Let's go to Joe Klein:
"I did want to say a few things about my colleagues -- in general, no names -- and the coverage of the campaign this year.
"Pundits tend to be a lagging indicator. This is particularly true at the end of a political pendulum swing. We've been conditioned by thirty years of certain arguments working -- and John McCain made most of them last night against Barack Obama: you're going to raise our taxes, you're going to spend more money, you want to negotiate with bad guys, you're associated somehow -- the associations have gotten more tenuous over time -- with countercultural and unAmerican activities.
"Again, these arguments have 'worked' for a long time. The Democrats who got themselves elected president during most of my career were those most successful at playing defense: No, no, I'm not going to do any of those things! And so the first reaction of more than a few talking heads Wednesday night was that McCain had done better, maybe even won, because he had made those arguments more successfully than he had in the first two debates. I disagreed, even before the focus groups and snap polls rendered their verdict: I thought McCain was near-incomprehensible when talking about policy, locked in the coffin of conservative thinking and punditry. He spoke in Reagan-era shorthand. He thought that merely invoking the magic words 'spread the wealth' and 'class warfare' he could neutralize Obama.
"But those words and phrases seem anachronistic, almost vestigial now. Indeed, they have become every bit as toxic as Democratic social activist proposals - -government-regulated and subsidized health care, for example -- used to be . . .
"Journalism is, naturally, about the past. We are much better at reporting things that have happened than in predicting the future. We never seem so foolish or obnoxious, especially on TV, as when we accede to the constant demand for crystal-balling. But the obvious danger inherent in journalism is that we tend to get trapped in the assumptions of the past. Too often this year, my colleagues -- especially those who are older than me, but also my fellow baby boomers -- have seemed a bit moldy in our questioning of politicians: What are you going to do about budget deficits? What are you going to do about entitlement programs?
"These are valid questions, but less relevant in a financial crisis that will probably lead to a severe recession -- and especially after 30 years of government neglect of its basic responsibilities."
Maybe that explains the media obsession with whether McCain would utter the words "William Ayers" in debate.
A similar argument from the other Klein, American Prospect's Ezra Klein:
"Part of what's led McCain awry is that elites are, in certain crucial ways, behind the voters. I tend to watch these debates in a room filled with politically involved liberals, and most all of them anxiously cringe every time McCain goes on the attack. Liberals are scarred. They remember all too well the elections they've lost because they were attacked as untrustworthy on national security, profligate with federal dollars, punitive with taxes. So they hear McCain put his Greatest Hits collection on the phonograph and they recoil, sure that those golden oldies will work.
"But voters aren't tuning into the 1988 debate. They see Wall Street falling apart and bridges falling down and employer-based health care dissolving and can't figure out why McCain keeps talking about earmarks, or why they should care who will cut taxes a little bit more. Taxes aren't their biggest problem anymore. Reagan succeeded. Taxes aren't even in the Top 5. But health care is. Education is. And when the conversation turns to those subjects, McCain stumbles and tap dances."
Arianna is angry about McCain's anger:
"John McCain scored the zinger of the night with, 'I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.'
"But his performance in the third debate was, in fact, incredibly Bush-like, mirroring Bush's signature stubbornness -- especially on Iraq -- by doubling down on a failed strategy.
"McCain's reliance on angry, negative, personal attacks on Obama -- including the pathetic Ayers smear and ACORN 'destroying the fabric of democracy' -- has been an unequivocal failure, with the poll numbers to prove it. But instead of course-correcting, McCain doubled down tonight -- coming across as angrier and meaner than ever before.
"This debate wasn't decided on the arguments being made. It was won on the reaction shots. Every time Obama spoke, McCain grimaced, sneered, rapidly blinked, or rolled his eyes . . .
"McCain's contemptuous reactions were so intense and frequent, they've already been turned into a YouTube video."
For the New Republic's Noam Scheiber, McCain lacked a certain fluidity:
"Obama wasn't close to his best. He was much less crisp and coherent than last week, and generally looked a little fried . . .
"Obama was much, much more coherent than McCain, who stopped and started and bobbed and weaved so jarringly he looked like a running back evading a swarming defense (often unsuccessfully) . . .
"Beyond garden-variety incoherence, McCain had three problems I could detect. First, he had a way of turning talking points into complete non sequiturs by slapping them on the end of unrelated answers. My favorite came at the end of his second pass at Ayers and ACORN, when he added, hopefully: '[M]y campaign is about getting this economy back on track, about creating jobs, about a brighter future for America.' Riiiight . . .
"As in previous debates, McCain's most glaring defect was his persistent sneering and dismissiveness. Here's McCain on the Colombia trade deal: 'Free trade with Colombia is something that's a no-brainer. But maybe you ought to travel down there and visit them and maybe you could understand it a lot better.' "
And did I mention I've been to Waziristan?
Tucker Carlson is dispirited:
"Time and again, McCain seemed close to completing an actual argument against Obama, only to pull back at the last moment and meander off onto another point. It was weird -- almost as weird as the creepy smile Obama maintained as McCain attacked him."
And Mac was fighting on the wrong battlefront, says Betsy's Page:
"It's pretty bad when the thing that gets McCain the most passionate is a low attack on his own honor. When the market has gone down over 700 points, the Asian markets are tanking as the debate goes on, and people are worried about their personal finances, no one really cares all that much about what John Lewis said about McCain. It would be different if Obama had said it. But to come back again and again begging for an apology was just lame and off the target of what anyone else cares about when they tune in to watch the debate."
At Right Wing Nuthouse, Rick Moran says McCain sealed his doom:
"Frankly, McCain never came close. He made a couple of good points about education, scored best with his pointed questions (that Obama never answered) about Ayers and ACORN, and had a couple of other nice moments. (I am not sure that McCain gained any support with his eye rolling, sneering, head shaking, and unmanly giggles. Those things matter to many people and I believe we might see over the next 24 hours that voters were turned off by his reactions.)
"But it was hopeless from the start for McCain. This race is pretty much on cruise control now with Obama comfortably (not decisively) ahead. As long as Obama didn't show up drunk, he accomplished what he had to accomplish at the debate.
"McCain needed Obama to show up drunk. He didn't . . .
"Obama's comfortable 6-8 point lead will mushroom in the next 3 weeks and make election day a holy living hell for the GOP with a landslide in both the popular vote and electoral college for Obama and a sweeping away of many Republican stalwarts in the House and Senate. It will be an historic repudiation of Republicans and will place the party in a position where it will probably spend a decade or more in the wilderness."
But Paul Mirengoff at Powerline is more optimistic, citing a new Rasmussen poll:
"If McCain really is, say, 5 percentage points behind Obama, then he's certainly within striking distance. Some might even argue that, at that spread, Obama isn't really ahead, given (a) the margin of error, (b) what happened to him during certain primaries and (c) the notion that black candidates tend to 'underperform' on election day in comparison to how they poll.
"That's not my opinion, particularly in view of the likelihood of voter fraud and Obama's concentration of resources in key states. But I'm pretty sure that, in theory, two and a half weeks is sufficient time to overcome a 5 point lead (assuming, again, that this is what Obama has)."
We're about to find out.
Who knew Fox News was so powerful?
"I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls," Obama tells the NYT Magazine. "If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn't vote for me, right? Because the way I'm portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?"
The Times-reading part is especially damaging.
Now this is enough to give you heartburn: A minor Republican functionary in California comes up with Obama Bucks, which are food stamps, you see, with the senator's picture, and that is illustrated, get this, with a bucket of fried chicken and a slab of watermelon. The woman, Diane Fedele, says she didn't see anything racist about it. Of course not.
Remember Vicki Iseman? Of course you do. She's the Washington lobbyist that the New York Times attempted to link to McCain last February, based on the suspicions of two unnamed former aides. Now she breaks her silence with National Journal's Ed Pound:
" 'I did not have a sexual relationship with Senator McCain,' she said in a three-hour interview last month in a seventh-floor conference room in the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. 'I never had an affair or an inappropriate relationship with Senator McCain, and that means I never acted unethically in my dealings with the senator.' Iseman, a partner in the lobbying firm of Alcalde & Fay, where she has worked for 18 years, adds, 'I have never even been alone with Senator McCain.'
"Iseman says she answered every question put to her by The Times, but that the newspaper 'chose to disregard' many of her answers. 'The New York Times set out to write a story about a 'romantic relationship' in exchange for legislative favors . . . Make the lobbyist a prostitute -- pretty heady stuff. The only problem was, they were wrong on all counts.'
"In strong language, Iseman also lashed out at John Weaver, a former top McCain strategist who left the campaign after a power struggle in July 2007. She said that Weaver had an 'ax to grind' and had used The Times to orchestrate the story and damage McCain's presidential campaign. 'The New York Times had four reporters [work] almost four months on this,' she said in an e-mail to National Journal this month, 'and John Weaver made them his marionettes.' Weaver, she says, was 'Machiavellian' and a 'Benedict Arnold.'
"Weaver, a seasoned political operative, flatly denied Iseman's assertions. 'I love John McCain,' he said in an interview, 'and I wouldn't do anything to harm him.' Weaver said he responded to only one of eight written questions from The Times and put the answer on the record. 'I responded accurately,' he told NJ. 'I did not help leak that story.'
"The Times stands behind its article. 'I think that the story stands up, an important story, a strong story,' says Dean Baquet, an assistant managing editor who runs the newspaper's Washington bureau and who helped oversee The Times' reporting. The newspaper 'had ample, multiple sources for the story,' he says, and had aggressively pursued Iseman's side, staking her out, sending her e-mails, and leaving her phone messages. He says that his reporters sought her comment 'very early on in the process,' but 'we couldn't get her to sit down and talk.' "
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The New York Times
October 16, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
G.O.P. Boos Obama for Ad Buy
BYLINE: By JULIE BOSMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; WORLD SERIES; Pg. 28
LENGTH: 250 words
Memo to Senator Barack Obama: It could be dangerous to mess with the national pastime.
Yet that is what Mr. Obama has possibly done in buying a 30-minute block of time on Oct. 29 on three networks, including Fox, which happens to be running the World Series. Because of the ad, Major League Baseball has agreed to push back the first pitch if there is a Game 6 that night.
That immediately drew the rebuke of the Republican National Committee, which portrayed the ad buy as another example of Mr. Obama's putting himself first. (The theme of Senator John McCain is ''Country First.'')
''It's unfortunate that the World Series' first pitch is being delayed for Obama's political pitch,'' Alex Conant, a spokesman for the R.N.C., said in a statement. He added later, via instant message, of Mr. Obama: ''He puts himself first -- literally.''
But Scott Grogin, a spokesman for the Fox Broadcasting Company, said Wednesday that it was the network that made the request to Major League Baseball to delay the start of Game 6 by 20 minutes. The network did so after Fox received the request from the Obama campaign to buy the block of time, at a cost of nearly $1 million.
Mr. Grogin added that the network would be willing to make time available to Mr. McCain's campaign, if requested.
Of course, if the series is decided in four or five games, the schedule change would not be necessary. ''If there's no Game 6,'' Mr. Grogin said, ''It'll air at 8 p.m. in lieu of other programming.'' JULIE BOSMAN
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USA TODAY
October 16, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Final fact check: Claims re-examined;
Rivals' third round covers tax cuts, Iraq
BYLINE: Richard Wolf and Ken Dilanian
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 590 words
A look at the claims made by Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama at the third and final presidential debate Wednesday:
Tax cuts
The claim: Obama said his tax plan offers three times the tax relief as McCain's plan does for the middle class.
The facts: The non-partisan Tax Policy Center shows that is the case for the first year of Obama's plan, but not over the long haul, and only for a narrow slice of the "middle class" -- those making between $37,595 and $66,354. The group says Obama's plan would save those families $1,042 in the first year, compared with McCain's $319. In later years, the difference is not nearly as great. In 2012, the last year of the next president's term, the difference is smaller: a $2,197 tax cut under Obama's plan, compared with $1,441 under McCain's. And for people earning more but who still consider themselves middle class -- those earning up to $112,000 -- Obama's plan would cut their tax bill by $1,264 in 2009, McCain's plan by $994.
Iraq
The claim: McCain said Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden had proposed dividing Iraq into three countries. He called it a "cockamamie idea."
The facts: In 2006, Biden, as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, proposed partitioning Iraq into three regions -- Kurdish, Shiite Arab and Sunni Arab -- with a central government in Baghdad. He said it would "maintain a united Iraq by decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group ... room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests." He did not propose that it become three separate countries.
Negative advertising
The claim: Obama said McCain's television advertisements have been "100% negative." McCain denied it.
The facts: Obama's claim apparently was based on an analysis released Oct. 8 by the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin. The report said, "During the week of Sept. 28-Oct. 4, nearly 100% of the McCain campaign's advertisements were negative. During the same period, 34% of the Obama campaign's ads were negative." The report also said that, overall, 73% of McCain's ads and 61% of Obama's have been negative. The study used information obtained from TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which analyzes data on the airing of every presidential ad in the top 186 TV markets in the country.
McCain's health care plan
The claim: In discussing his $5,000-per-family tax credit for health care, McCain said the average cost of a health care plan is $5,800.
The facts: The average cost of a family plan purchased by employers this year hit a new high, $12,106, according to an annual survey of nearly 2,000 employers by the non-partisan Kaiser Family Foundation, a research group based in Menlo Park, Calif. Individual coverage premiums averaged $4,479.
Obama's health care plan
The claim: McCain said that under Obama's health care plan, a small business could be fined for not offering coverage to its employees.
The facts: The key to this charge is what defines a "small" business, and the Obama campaign has not said. Obama has said he would exempt small businesses from having to contribute to their employees' health coverage or pay into a national fund. He has not, however, said what size company he has in mind for the exemption. In August, Obama adviser Jason Furman said companies with 10 or fewer employees would likely be exempted, but he did not limit it to that size. Obama has not said how he would enforce his requirement that parents get coverage for their children.
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USA TODAY
October 16, 2008 Thursday
FIRST EDITION
Economy again is front and center;
Candidates spar over rescue plans, ad tactics
BYLINE: Susan Page
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 787 words
HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- The final presidential debate was held Wednesday night in a converted basketball arena at Hofstra University, but John McCain and Barack Obama might just as well have been battling on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, a 31-mile commute to the west.
The Dow Jones industrial average scored its most precipitous fall ever last week, followed by its biggest one-day surge on Monday; it closed Wednesday after a breathtaking 733-point drop. The stock-market roller coaster set the stage for a debate that was dominated at the beginning by the nation's precarious financial situation and what the next president might do about it.
In the opening question, the two scrapped over the affections of an Ohio plumber who spoke to Obama last week at a campaign stop. McCain said the man -- Joe Wurzelbacher, referred to by both as "Joe the plumber" -- had expressed concerns that Obama's economic plan might mean he couldn't afford to buy a small business because of the tax burden.
"He's been watching some ads of Sen. McCain," Obama replied. He said his tax cuts would help the middle class while McCain's were directed at the affluent.
The 90-minute forum was McCain's last chance to curb the momentum that has helped Obama open a small but consistent lead in nationwide polls, and an edge in a series of battleground states. The debate wasn't the only event that could change the campaign's course -- a national security surprise or personal scandal still could shake things up -- but it presumably was the final one under McCain's control.
The Arizona senator, a master of comeback politics, started out with a friendlier tone than he did in the first two debates, saying it was "good to be here" with him again.
Obama was cool, careful and low-key, wearing a red tie and sporting an American flag pin in his lapel. The two sat on swivel chairs at a horseshoe-shaped table with moderator Bob Schieffer of CBS.
McCain, wearing a blue striped tie, was crisply aggressive about the economy and challenged Obama to name a single time he had challenged the leadership of his party.
When Obama sought to link McCain to President Bush -- a theme throughout the campaign -- McCain shot back: "Sen. Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."
Obama replied, "Essentially, you're proposing eight more years of the same thing."
Each candidate touted the proposals they unveiled this week aimed at easing the pain Americans are likely to feel from the credit crunch, stock market slump and economic slowdown.
And both blasted the other for the negative ads and attacks directed at them, and McCain accused Obama of breaking his word to accept public financing.
"I don't mind being attacked for the next three weeks," Obama replied. "What the American people can't afford is four more years of failed economic policies."
On Tuesday, McCain proposed help for the jobless -- for two years, they wouldn't have to pay income taxes on unemployment benefits -- and for seniors, who could delay withdrawing funds from their retirement accounts while the markets are so low. He also called for cutting the 15% capital gains tax rate in half.
Obama on Monday backed a tax credit for businesses that hire new full-time workers, a 90-day moratorium on some home foreclosures and extended unemployment benefits.
A cascade of economic catastrophe has driven all three of the fall debates and the presidential campaign itself.
Of course, there are limits to the impact of even the most caustic remarks or dramatic exchanges. "A debate will change the atmospherics vs. changing the fundamentals," Republican strategist Kevin Madden said, "and this campaign is being driven much more by the fundamentals."
Those fundamentals have favored Obama. In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 85% of those surveyed rated the economy as poor and predicted it was getting worse. Obama was preferred over McCain on handling the economy by 14 percentage points, and he far outdistanced McCain as someone who "understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives" and as someone who "has a clear plan for solving the nation's problems."
Still, partisans on both sides agreed the race wasn't over yet.
"The public is still taking the two candidates' measure," Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel, a Chicago Democrat who is close to Obama, said as he arrived at the debate site.
"No. 1, no one should ever count out John McCain under any circumstances," said Todd Harris, an aide to McCain in his 2000 presidential bid, "and No. 2, in a race that has seen as many twists and turns over the last 18 months as this one, it would be silly to assume we don't have at least one more."
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October 16, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
'Latinos '08': A Split Ticket;
PBS Documentary Questions Assumptions About Voters
BYLINE: David Montgomery; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 966 words
Jackie Kennedy looks into our eyes and speaks perfect French-accented Spanish, politely soliciting votes for her husband in a 1960 campaign commercial.
It was the first time a presidential campaign paid such attention to Latino voters, and it was good for the Democrats. To this day, some Mexican restaurants have pictures of JFK posted next to images of Our Lady of Guadalupe.
The competition for those votes has gotten only more sophisticated and bipartisan. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain have deployed rival Hispanic outreach teams in a parallel universe of dueling Spanish-language campaigns in battleground states.
One of the best things about the new PBS documentary "Latinos '08" (10:30 tonight on Maryland Public Television) is that it challenges a premise of such efforts -- the assumption that the Latino vote is a monolithic bloc that can be appealed to and delivered as one. The film commits an even more refreshing heresy: It questions whether the Latino vote really is as critical as everyone says it is.
"There is an industry promoting how important the Latino vote is," says Rodolfo de la Garza, a professor at Columbia University, one of many analysts interviewed. "It is one of the most overstated, self-congratulatory exercises in American politics today."
Yet credit the higher truth-telling of this brisk, brief (one-hour) political, demographic and cultural tour that it also resists taking refuge in easy contrarianism, which is as overly simple as the conventional wisdom. Rather than present us with a neat package of the Latino influence as either-or, this-or-that, it unwraps the package and reveals something with more to it than many presume.
Director Phillip Rodriguez knows his way around this territory of ironies and pieties layered upon an undeniably real demographic bedrock. Last year he made "Brown Is the New Green: George Lopez and the American Dream," about how efforts to profit from the ballooning Latino market are shaping perceptions of the Latino identity.
In Rodriguez's account, Kennedy's outreach put the Latino vote in the pocket of the Democrats, who proceeded to take it for granted. Along came Ronald Reagan and President Bush, former Western governors who showed that the Latino political identity is not so predictable. Bush won more than 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, a GOP record.
Rodriguez lets his parade of analysts consider the rival appeals of McCain and Obama. Has McCain backslid on his commitment to immigration reform? Is Obama's race a problem for some Latinos? (A weakness of the film is its reliance on these talking heads, as eloquent and unpredictable as they are.) Some polls show Latinos supporting Obama over McCain nearly 3 to 1.
But what about cultural identity, and how does that inform decisions made inside the voting booth?
De la Garza describes a bar in Houston. Mexicans go Friday nights, Chicanos on Saturday nights. The crowds rarely mix: Immigrants and descendants of immigrants have a lot not in common.
Latinos also lack a common national story, hailing from more than a dozen countries. Some are born citizens (Puerto Ricans); some are welcomed as soon as they touch American soil (Cubans). Latinos in the West display more of a self-assured swagger than Latinos in some parts of the East, where they are newly arrived and under siege.
"The Latino community, depending on where you are, is the only one where if you say 'salsa,' half of them start dancing and half of them start eating," de la Garza says.
And yet, seeming disunity and diversity aren't the whole story. The common threat of immigrant-bashing created a pan-Latino identity that appeared strongest in 2006, when hundreds of thousands marched for immigration reform.
"God bless the racists, they managed to unite us," says columnist Ruben Navarrette Jr.
The tough-on-illegal-immigration crowd doesn't understand why many legal residents and citizens take its rhetoric personally. It's another nuance of Latino identity: Vast numbers of illegal immigrants have children, spouses or other family members who are legal residents.
"You start going after them and you are disrupting American families," de la Garza says. "That won't play."
Since rhetoric against illegal immigrants is a staple of more Republican campaigns than Democratic ones, the GOP might want to think about this: Roughly half a million Latinos become eligible voters each year just by turning 18.
"If you are attacking us, we will remember," says the Rev. Luis Cortés Jr., president of a powerful federation of evangelical churches. "That means you will never have a Republican president in the future."
But translating demographic power into political power is no sure thing. Rates of Latino voter eligibility and turnout among eligible voters both lag behind those of whites and blacks.
Obama's newest Spanish-language TV and radio spots subtly acknowledge the target audience's diversity: The narrator in Florida has a Caribbean-Spanish accent, whereas the narrator in the other states sounds more Mexican.
Maybe we've learned something since Jackie Kennedy's day.
But looking into the future, his camera sentimentally panning the classic American monuments of Washington -- a bit of heavy-handed symbolism -- Rodriguez leaves open the ultimate political meaning of this expanding minority with its hard-to-figure identity.
"Over time, there's going to be so many Latinos that they can be a national elections player," de la Garza says. "But will they be Latinos when you get that many?"
Cortés says, "My concern is that we will still maintain a grain of identity that says, 'I am Latino.' "
De la Garza has the film's last word, one that seems honest and real: "What will it mean to be a Latino? I don't know."
Latinos '08 (one hour) airs tonight at 10:30 on Maryland Public Television.
LOAD-DATE: October 16, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Claudio Rocha; "Latinos '08," directed by Phillip Rodriguez, below, ponders whether the Latino vote is a unified bloc or even critical.
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The Washington Post
October 16, 2008 Thursday
Met 2 Edition
Both Campaigns Distorting Facts on Money Matters
BYLINE: Michael Dobbs; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 1327 words
John McCain has asserted that his Democratic rival plans to raise taxes on anyone making more than $42,000 a year and will force all Americans into a "government-run" health-care system. Barack Obama has accused the GOP presidential candidate of planning "the largest middle-class tax increase in history" and gambling with the Social Security earnings of millions of American seniors.
All these allegations, a sampling of charges traded back and forth on the campaign trail and in the three presidential debates over the past few weeks, are false.
During the final presidential debate last night, both candidates made their share of factual errors and distorted their rivals' positions. Obama again was misleading in describing the effects of McCain's health-care proposal, while McCain again recycled the false assertion that Obama had voted to raise taxes on people making $42,000 a year.
Some of the sharpest back-and-forth over economic issues concerned the taxes that an Ohio plumber named Joe Wurzelbacher stands to pay under a possible Obama administration. McCain was correct in stating that Joe the Plumber will end up paying a higher marginal tax rate under the Obama plan if his small business makes more than $250,000 a year. But McCain was wrong to say that Obama is planning to fine Joe the Plumber and other small-business owners if they fail to provide health insurance for their employees.
As the U.S. economy has unraveled, both McCain and Obama have been stepping up their efforts to convince voters that disaster lies ahead if their opponent ends up in the White House. At the same time, economists say, both candidates have played down the sacrifices that will be necessary to put the nation back on a path to fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets.
While there is no evidence that today's candidates are any more untruthful than their predecessors, the explosion of media outlets and the rise of the Internet have made it difficult for fact-checkers to keep track of the fibs peddled by the rival political camps. Exaggerations, misstatements and outright falsehoods crop up daily in a cascade of campaign spin, from major speeches to political blogs to video releases targeted at specific markets.
"It's like drinking from a fire hose," said Brooks Jackson, director of the Web site FactCheck.org, who has been truth-squadding presidential campaigns since 1991.
Many of the misleading attacks reflect standard partisan positions, Jackson said, with Republicans attacking Democrats for an alleged propensity to raise taxes and with Democrats criticizing Republicans for ignoring more vulnerable Americans. He noted that McCain had "systematically misrepresented Obama's tax proposals over a long period of time," prompting Obama to turn around and do "the same thing" with the McCain health-care plan.
"The big McCain deception about Obama is that he will tax everybody," said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a professor of communication at the University of Pennsylvania. "But there is nothing in the Obama plan that can reasonably be described as higher taxes on people who make less than $250,000 a year."
McCain and his surrogates have repeatedly accused the senator from Illinois of voting to raise taxes on people making $42,000 a year, and suggested that this is a key part of the Democrat's campaign platform. The charge stems from the Democrat's vote in favor of nonbinding resolutions that assume, for budgeting purposes, that the Bush tax cuts will expire in 2011, as scheduled. Obama has promised to extend the Bush tax cuts for all but the highest-income groups.
Similarly, there is little to support McCain's charge that Obama would "force families into a government-run health-care system where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor." The Obama plan bears little resemblance to the socialized national health systems in Britain and some other European countries and is based instead on expanding the current U.S. system of privately backed health insurance.
The Obama campaign, meanwhile, has repeatedly mischaracterized the McCain health-care plan as "the largest middle-class tax increase in history," in the phrase of a recent Obama television ad. While it is true that McCain wants to tax employer-provided health insurance for the first time, he is also promising a tax credit of between $2,500 and $5,000 to encourage Americans to buy their own health insurance. According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the tax credit will more than offset the higher tax for most Americans over the next decade.
As the Wall Street meltdown accelerated last month, Obama told Florida retirees that their Social Security earnings would have been "tied up" in the falling stock market "if my opponent had his way." While McCain has expressed support for a Bush administration plan to allow some Americans to establish "private retirement accounts," the proposal would not have applied to current retirees, and nobody would have been obliged to participate.
An even bigger question, economists said, is whether the election promises of either candidate are at all realistic at a time of rising international indebtedness and growing budget deficits. Both Obama and McCain have talked in general terms about the need for economic sacrifice but have shied away from spelling out what this will mean.
"No candidate has ever won office by identifying the tax increases and spending cuts that they will have to implement if elected," said Eugene Steuerle, a Reagan-era Treasury official now with the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. "That's been the case throughout history, and it is certainly true of this election."
While McCain has talked about the need to eliminate earmark spending, and Obama has said he would increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans, "those are very small numbers" in relation to the scale of the problem, Steuerle said. The Tax Policy Center has projected a $459 billion deficit by 2012 under an Obama administration, and a $604 billion deficit under a McCain administration, even before the latest "economic stimulus" packages announced this week.
Both candidates have sought to blame the rival political party for the current meltdown on Wall Street through a very selective telling of history. McCain has blamed the crisis on the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac making overly risky loans "with the encouragement of Senator Obama and his cronies and friends in Washington." Obama has blamed deregulation efforts championed by Republicans such as McCain.
Independent analysts said that it is a distortion to single out any one factor as the cause of the meltdown. Both political parties had deep ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Democrats supported deregulation of Wall Street during the Clinton administration.
"They both want to assign partisan blame for the economic crisis, which is kind of silly, as there is so much blame to spread around," said Jackson of FactCheck.org.
The verbal brinkmanship has not been confined to the economy. According to Jamieson, some of the most egregious deception has concerned the character of the candidates. She cites McCain campaign attacks on Obama for "palling around with terrorists" -- a reference to his acquaintance with former Weather Underground co-founder William Ayers -- and subtle hints by the Obama camp that McCain is too old to be president.
An Obama ad released in August that was titled "Out of Touch" used slowed-down video of McCain and President Bush at the White House following footage of the senator from Arizona with George H.W. Bush in a golf cart. The effect of the slowed-down footage, says Jamieson, was to show McCain "blinking his eyes really slowly, with jerky motions, reinforcing the age stereotype." An off-screen commentator said McCain "cannot even remember anymore" how many houses he owns, twisting his original words.
An Obama spokesman, Tommy Vietor, said that the conclusion drawn by Jamieson was "completely ridiculous."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; Democrat Barack Obama is misleading in describing how McCain's health-care proposal would affect Americans.
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October 16, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
Candidates Make A Name for This Guy Joe
BYLINE: Tom Shales
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Jackie Gleason, famous comedian of first-generation television, often played an everyman character named Joe the Bartender -- but it was everyman Joe the Plumber who unintentionally stole the show last night at the final presidential debate between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain, aired live from Hofstra University in New York. It was an unusual situation: a real man who became apocryphal before the night was over, so often was he summoned as an example of this or that by whichever candidate found it expeditious to cite him.
News organizations no doubt set to work scrambling to find Joe the Plumber and give him the rest of his 15 minutes of fame; the electronic media are ever on the lookout for ways to trivialize the democratic process. Meanwhile, the other most-conspicuous notable name mentioned at the debate was George the President -- George W. Bush, whom McCain made reference to in a line reminiscent of Lloyd Bentsen's famous rejoinder to Dan Quayle that "you are no Jack Kennedy."
It took weeks, months, but McCain and his people finally came up with a snappy and succinct way to distance the Republican candidate from the hugely, wildly, almost incomparably unpopular Bush and to undercut Obama's frequently repeated reference to "eight years of failed policies" that Obama says Bush propagated and McCain will continue.
"I'm not President Bush," said McCain, looking at Obama as he normally seems so loath to do. "If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."
It was the best line of the night, probably scripted, but political expert George Stephanopoulos on ABC News said in his postscript that McCain should have used it in the first debate, not the last. There were other ghosts of debates past, including one that seemed to go barely noticed: Obama wore a flag pin in his lapel, something he had been superficially chided for failing to do in the April Democratic debate moderated by Stephanopoulos and Charles Gibson. McCain stood there with a naked lapel, nary a teeny-tiny flag in sight. Maybe he wore flag cuff links or a flag tie tack.
Post-debate pundits seemed to feel that McCain started out strongly but then settled back into old patterns and repetitious rhetoric that probably did nothing to persuade those elusive undecided voters to cast their ballots for McCain instead of Obama. But Obama brought no new tricks to the table, either, relying instead on old arguments, using 50-cent words such as "prioritize" and "reprioritize" that have to be turn-offs for many in the audience, and starting too many answers with "look" or "well, look" as in "Well, look . . . we expect political campaigns to be tough."
McCain may deserve kudos for cheekiest trick of the campaign when he twice tried to ridicule Obama for being eloquent. This seemed a new tactic: cast doubt on a candidate who seems suspiciously articulate, as if misusing words, fracturing syntax and bumbling through sentences were signs of honor. If that were the case, George W. Bush would be revered instead of lampooned nightly on the David Letterman show (where McCain is scheduled to make a notoriously delayed appearance tonight).
The tone and toughness of the campaigns themselves occupied too much of the time, but the subjects raised by moderator Bob Schieffer of CBS News did seem to encourage Obama and McCain to speak directly to each other, to mix it up as other debate moderators have tried, and mostly failed, to get them to do. Obama claimed that no fewer than "100 percent" of McCain's TV commercials have been "negative," which sounded like an overstatement to understate it. McCain brought up tired old charges against Obama of being pals with '60s radical William Ayers even though those claims have been shot down time and time again by the Obama campaign.
Without mentioning GOP vice presidential candidate and famous Alaskan hockey mom Sarah Palin by name, Obama referred to McCain's "running mate" and the raucous rallies at which she has spoken, with Obama looking askance at rally rowdies who shouted out "terrorist" when Obama's name was mentioned and even the unnerving and obscene "Kill him!" McCain got huffy, as he does with barely a moment's notice, and said he was "proud of the people who come to our rallies." Obama said it was incumbent on the candidates to "disagree without being disagreeable" and to avoid characterizing each other "as bad people."
Schieffer probably did the best job of any debate moderator in keeping the candidates from wandering off point and getting them to answer the questions he asked, though both candidates tried their darnedest to speechify rather than improvise something fresh and new.
On CNN after the debate, from among the roiling mob of commentators assembled for analysis (twice as many as were probably needed), Anderson Cooper wisely noted that people who watched the debate on the cable-news network or on another channel that relied heavily on a split screen -- Obama on the left, McCain on the right, visibly reacting to each other's allegations -- probably had a different impression, especially of McCain, than those who saw the debate as a series of single shots of each candidate.
On the split screen, viewers could see Obama laughing at charges made by McCain, a reaction that did seem to diminish the charges. Viewers also could see McCain looking somehow inflated and aloof. Sometimes he struck such a lofty pose that he could have been posing for a spot on Mount Rushmore. Other times, he looked as though he might explode.
"The reaction shots were killing McCain," said Democrat Paul Begala on CNN. "He looked like Grumpy McNasty again." In less risible language, commentator David Gergen agreed: "He looked angry. It was almost an exercise in anger management for him" as he struggled "to contain himself" while "Obama maintained his cool."
NBC News employed the tired and rarely helpful gimmick of bringing in a focus group of supposedly ordinary Americans to watch the debate and then react, with Ann Curry padding her part as she questioned the respondents. There were only six, a pretty paltry sample, but one woman (from Potomac Falls) said of the Republican candidate, "McCain's temperament is scary to me."
She could have been a Democrat repeating what has been one of the party's operative mantras of the campaign, part of a concerted attempt to portray McCain as a potentially dangerous hothead. Or the woman may have been honestly expressing what is a common concern among some voters.
McCain repeated his complaint that the candidates participated in debates instead of "town meetings" and said that by now, he and Obama could have starred in 10 town meetings together. There was an obvious irony in that, since McCain's performance at the one debate with a town-meeting format was among his poorest. Last night's, at least, was a step up -- but most likely the proverbial too little, too late.
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Every Edition
At Height of Election Season, a Full Haul of Blog Items
BYLINE: Virginia Notebook
SECTION: EXTRAS; Pg. PW15
LENGTH: 943 words
This week's Notebook is a compilation of items from The Washington Post's "Virginia Politics" blog. To get your fix throughout the week, check out http://blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics or http://www.washingtonpost.com/vablog.
Gilmore Signs Pledge Against Earmarks
Former House majority leader Richard K. Armey (R-Tex.), known for his opposition to higher taxes and earmarks, praised U.S. Senate candidate James S. Gilmore III in a conference call with Virginia reporters Tuesday.
Armey said the popularity of earmarks in Congress is "so far out of control" that only with determined opposition can members halt them.
In recent weeks, Gilmore, a former governor, has come out against the $700 billion federal economic rescue package and earmarks. He signed a "no earmarks" pledge this week.
Gilmore said that he opposed the bailout bill partly because it was filled with earmarks, including money for rum manufacturers and a company that makes wooden arrows. He said the practice of securing earmarks is open to "fraud and abuse."
Armey is chairman of FreedomWorks, a group dedicated to "lower taxes, less government and more freedom."
Gilmore faces former governor Mark R. Warner (D) for the Senate seat being vacated by the retiring John W. Warner (R).
-- ANITA KUMAR
Economic Crisis Prompts New Ads From Warner
Former governor Mark R. Warner will begin broadcasting new radio and television ads this week in his Senate race against former governor James S. Gilmore III.
The 30-second TV ad, called "Fresh Approach," features Warner discussing the nation's economic crisis. A 60-second version will be broadcast on radio statewide.
"For too long, there were too many people both in Washington and on Wall Street asleep at the switch," Warner says in the ad. "We need a fresh approach where we don't allow CEOs on Wall Street to walk away with millions of dollars while their companies go into the ditch. We've got to have leaders in Washington who put our country's interest first, not partisanship. That's what I'll do if you send me to Washington."
-- ANITA KUMAR
Endorsement of Obama Could Backfire in Va.
The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence announced Monday that it is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign.
"Senators Obama and [Joseph] Biden know that we make it too easy for dangerous people to get dangerous weapons in this country," Brady President Paul Helmke said in a statement. "They know that our weak gun laws have too many loopholes, which lead to over 30,000 deaths and 70,000 injuries from guns every year."
But in a state such as Virginia, which is home to the National Rifle Association and more than 1 million hunters, the endorsement carries considerable risk. The NRA, which has endorsed GOP nominee John McCain, is already running ads in Virginia noting that Obama once supported a ban on handguns in Chicago.
And if Obama (D-Ill.) has made any gains in rural Virginia, it will be tempting for Republicans to use the Brady Campaign endorsement to undercut him on the gun issue.
According to the Associated Press, Obama supported a ban on all forms of semiautomatic weapons and other restrictions on firearms when he was in the Illinois legislature. Obama now says he is a strong supporter of the Second Amendment and would not, as president, seek to interfere with an individual's right to own a gun for hunting and self-protection.
-- TIM CRAIG
Remark on Bin Laden Rattles Republican Unity
Donald Scoggins, a prominent African American Republican in Prince William County, condemned Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeffrey M. Frederick on Monday for comparing Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to Osama bin Laden.
Scoggins said that he's been involved in the Republican Party for 40 years and that Frederick's remarks are "totally unacceptable." Scoggins once headed Republicans for Black Empowerment, which sought to recruit more African American Republicans to run for office.
"At this point in time, not just in Virginia, but all over, there needs to be a lowering of the decibel of hatred, and that was very much uncalled for," said Scoggins, who has been in touch with other GOP activists and leaders to discuss Frederick's remarks. "For him to equate [Obama] with someone as vile and destructive as bin Laden is just very much beyond the pale."
Scoggins said Frederick's message runs counter to the platform he ran on this summer during his campaign to oust former lieutenant governor John H. Hager as party chairman. Frederick, who is Hispanic, vowed he would make the party more inclusive.
Scoggins said Frederick instead appears to be focused on "appealing to a shrinking base."
"He can't get any more out of the base, so what he is doing is counterproductive," Scoggins said.
Scoggins said he has never supported a Democratic presidential candidate. But he is not sure how he will vote this year.
"I am going to figure out who will be the best person for the country," Scoggins said. "With the kind of talk Frederick did, that does not help blacks who would like to support McCain."
Frederick said he was making a joke. Chuck Smith, an African American who used to be chairman of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, rose to Frederick's defense.
"It was an inappropriate statement and he shouldn't have made it, but was he calling Obama a terrorist? No," Smith said. "Was he saying black people are terrorists? No."
Smith added: "We as Republicans need to stand our ground and get away from the sense that if we attack Obama it is insensitive to the African American community. Obama is fair game for attacks. What Jeff was saying is his association with William Ayers is a basis from which he can be attacked."
-- TIM CRAIG
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Obama Turns to State's Leading Democrats;
Campaign Wants Kaine, Warner, Webb to Appear in Ads to Capitalize on Popularity
BYLINE: Anita Kumar; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: METRO; Pg. B05
LENGTH: 498 words
DATELINE: RICHMOND, Oct. 15
Sen. Barack Obama is asking the state's top three Democrats to appear in advertisements for him in the final weeks of the presidential race as he competes with Sen. John McCain in the battleground of Virginia.
Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) has recorded a radio ad for Obama (D-Ill.) that began airing in parts of the state this week.
Obama's campaign expects to ask Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and former governor Mark R. Warner, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, to do the same.
"We're looking to involve all three top Democrats in Virginia," said Kevin Griffis, a spokesman for Obama in Virginia.
Campaign officials hope the three men, well known and popular with different populations in different parts of the state, will send a signal to Virginians that they can trust Obama.
Kaine, a national campaign co-chairman who was on Obama's short list as a vice presidential running mate, said Wednesday that he was filmed for a potential ad in August at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
"I have cut a lot of footage for Senator Obama in Denver that I gave them all-purpose authority to use how they see fit," Kaine said.
Warner, who is depicting himself as a bipartisan leader in his campaign against former governor James S. Gilmore III (R), has not committed to appear in an ad.
"We are talking daily with the Obama folks about ways we can be helpful in the final three weeks of this campaign," said Kevin Hall, a Warner spokesman.
Webb, Kaine and Warner have been part of a Democratic resurgence in Virginia, winning three statewide races this decade.
No Democratic presidential candidate has carried Virginia since 1964, but recent polls show Obama and Republican nominee McCain (Ariz.) locked in an extremely competitive race. A Washington Post-ABC News poll late last month indicated that Virginia's likely voters are divided 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain.
This year, strategists from both parties say Virginia could be critical to capturing the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House. Virginians do not register by party, and many have been known to split their tickets.
Obama will make his seventh trip to Virginia since he secured his party's nomination when he holds a rally in Roanoke on Friday. McCain will hold his third campaign event in the state, visiting Prince William County on Saturday.
Webb will campaign for Obama on Thursday in southwest Virginia, with rallies planned for Bristol, Marion, Pulaski and Blacksburg. He also will appear with Obama on Friday in Roanoke.
In his radio ad, billed as an "important message to Virginia sportsmen and working families," Webb, a Marine Corps veteran and member of the National Rifle Association, recounts how his dad gave him his first rifle when he was 8 years old.
"I know my friend Barack Obama will protect our Second Amendment rights," Webb says in the ad. "So don't be misled about Barack Obama in the closing days of this campaign. . . . I trust him to protect our right to keep and bear arms."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, shown with Barack Obama at a forum in Chester, Va., in August, has cut footage for Obama's staffers "to use how they see fit."
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Aggressive Underdog vs. Cool Counterpuncher
BYLINE: Dan Balz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1304 words
DATELINE: HEMPSTEAD, N.Y., Oct. 15
John McCain threw everything he could at Barack Obama here Wednesday night.
Down in the polls and with time running out, McCain took every opportunity to put Obama on the defensive, looking to turn a race that has been slipping away from him back in his direction in the final 20 days. It was what many of his supporters, including running mate Sarah Palin, had urged him to do, and McCain responded with vigor and seeming enthusiasm.
Obama was repeatedly forced Wednesday night to explain himself. But he did not lose his cool under his opponent's persistent criticism, parrying time and again with measured explanations designed to take the sting out of McCain's charges with voters who may still be making up their minds.
This debate may have been McCain's strongest performance of the three, but it was also an example of how Obama has used the encounters to try to show that he has not only the knowledge of the issues but also the temperament and the judgment that voters are looking for in a successor to President Bush.
In the end, given the overwhelming desire for change in the country, that may be enough to keep him in the driver's seat. McCain will have to continue to press his case relentlessly in the final days to change the shape of the campaign.
In the past two weeks, the race has taken an ugly turn -- whether in television commercials, the remarks of the candidates, or, in particular, the comments of their surrogates or supporters. On Wednesday night, much of that came into play in the hall at Hofstra University, where CBS's Bob Schieffer guided the two candidates into a direct confrontation over what has been said.
That produced a debate that not only dealt with the deep philosophical differences between Obama and McCain on the economy, government, health care and energy but also brought to the table Obama's association with 1960s radical William Ayers and a little-known group called ACORN that has been accused of voter fraud in several states.
McCain accused Obama of failing to repudiate some of the worst attacks leveled by Democratic allies, pointing to comments over the weekend by Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), who compared McCain to segregationist George Wallace and warned that McCain and Palin were empowering the kind of sentiment that led to violence during the civil rights movement.
"Senator Obama," he said, "you didn't repudiate those remarks. Every time there's been an out-of-bounds remark made by a Republican, no matter where they are, I have repudiated them."
Obama said the comparison with Wallace was inappropriate, but he also fired back at McCain, saying that at GOP rallies, "when my name came up, things like 'terrorist' and 'kill him,' . . . your running mate didn't mention, didn't stop, didn't say, 'Hold on a second -- that's kind of out of line.' "
Obama challenged the suggestion that he had spent time "palling around with terrorists," opening up a discussion of Ayers, who was a member of the Weather Underground, a radical group that carried out domestic bombings during the Vietnam War era.
"He engaged in despicable acts with a radical domestic group," Obama said. "I have roundly condemned those acts. Ten years ago he served and I served on a school reform board that was funded by one of Ronald Reagan's former ambassadors and close friends, Mr. [Walter] Annenberg. . . . Mr. Ayers is not involved in my campaign. He has never been involved in this campaign. And he will not advise me in the White House."
(Annenberg was actually an ambassador under President Richard M. Nixon.)
There were other such moments. McCain at one point pressed Obama to explain why he had voted against a measure in the Illinois legislature that he said would have denied medical treatment to a child born of a failed abortion. "It's not true," Obama countered, arguing that another law already assured such treatment and that the measure he opposed was also opposed by the Illinois Medical Society.
McCain hit Obama for breaking his pledge to take public funding for the general election and accused him of spending more on negative ads than any candidate in history. Obama pointed to polls showing that many more Americans believe that McCain has run a primarily negative campaign, and he claimed that 100 percent of McCain's ads have been negative.
Despite these kinds of exchanges, the debate once again highlighted sharp differences between the two on the issues that Americans care most about. McCain, more systematically than in the past, set out to portray Obama as a Democrat who believes deeply in bigger and more intrusive government, and he invoked a plumber named Joe Wurzelbacher, whom Obama had encountered on the campaign trail, as his foil to hammer Obama's policies.
At times, it seemed as if the entire campaign came down to which candidate could win over Wurzelbacher's vote. "What you want to do to Joe the Plumber and millions more like him is have their taxes increased and not be able to realize the American dream of owning their own business," McCain asserted.
When McCain charged that Obama's health plan would force Wurzelbacher to provide insurance for his workers or pay a fine, and demanded that his rival say how much the fine would be, Obama looked into the camera and said: "Joe, too, if you're out there. Here's your fine -- zero."
Democratic strategists watching from afar said they thought Obama had done what he needed to do by staying calm in the face of McCain's criticisms, focusing on an economic message aimed squarely at the middle class and once again using the 90 minutes to project reassurance.
Republican analysts watching the debate said McCain had done what he could to change the dynamic of the election. But they did not underestimate the size of the hill McCain must climb.
Even before Wednesday's debate, it was clear that Obama was making progress in overcoming the doubts about his candidacy. The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, taken over the weekend, showed that by 54 percent to 40 percent, voters see Obama as the stronger leader. In June, as the general election was beginning, it was McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent.
In June, the public was evenly divided -- 48 percent to 48 percent -- on whether Obama had the experience to be president. Today it's 54 percent yes, 45 percent no. That's not an overwhelming vote of confidence, but in a divided country at the height of what has turned into an intensely partisan contest, it is a sign that Obama has made progress with doubters.
More remarkably, in the latest poll, McCain is seen as a riskier candidate than Obama. On that question, 50 percent of voters said the Republican nominee would be a risky choice and 50 percent said he wouldn't. For Obama, it was 55 percent saying he was a safe choice and 45 percent saying he would be a risky pick. In June, McCain was 16 points positive on that question, Obama two points positive.
Republican strategist Tom Rath said McCain showed in the debate how he thinks he must run now that he is behind. "He forced Obama regularly to defend his positions," he said. "I think it shows where the McCain team thinks they must go, which is back to the base, back to the Bush map of 2004. Over and over again McCain hit hardest on base issues and forced the discussion to that segment of the electorate which holds his best -- and maybe only -- chance of winning."
But Democratic strategist Tad Devine said that Obama still has the edge and that his huge financial advantage will now prove difficult to overcome. "This was the closest debate of the three," he said. "The sit-down was better for McCain than the two previous formats. But Obama still got the better of it, since he was not tripped up by McCain, and throughout did better at getting his core message across. . . . I think the voters will now settle in, with the advantage to Obama."
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In Targeting Online Ads, Campaigns Ask: Who's Searching for What?
BYLINE: Peter Whoriskey; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 1184 words
A day after Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin winked playfully during the recent vice presidential debate, the number of people typing "palin wink" into the Google search engine surged, rising to No. 3 on the service's list of newly popular queries.
There, the phrase caught the attention of Eric Frenchman, an expert hired by the McCain-Palin campaign to develop online advertising.
"I might use it," said Frenchman, who describes himself as a "voracious" reader of Google search statistics.
Discovering how people search for candidate information -- exactly what words they type into a search box -- is a budding science that is paying big dividends in the presidential race between Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).
As never before, the campaigns are buying ads to run along with the results of specific search queries on Google, Yahoo and Microsoft's Live. Because the ads catch people just as they are searching for information and because they can be tailored to the users' immediate interest -- the phrases they type in -- both campaigns are spending millions on the method, which is relatively new in politics.
There is an art to choosing the keyword phrases for which to buy advertising -- among them are "water conserving faucets," "inheritance tax" and "fuel calculator." And it requires avid monitoring to keep up with evolving popular interests and campaign messages.
Many of the hundreds of keywords chosen by the campaigns for advertising are obvious -- simple variations of the candidates' names.
Others reveal what kinds of issues the campaigns are trying to engage voters on: "gas prices," "chavez" and "global warming" have been used, according to AdGooroo and SpyFu, firms that track search-term advertising.
But others stray far from policies: "Lipstick," "hanoi hilton," "obama muslim" and "hot wife" also have been purchased, according to the ad trackers.
Federal election records show that the Obama campaign has spent $5 million on Google, although some of that went for traditional display ads. The McCain campaign's ad expenditures are harder to track, but based on the volume of its online advertising, its tally reaches into the millions as well.
"The beautiful thing about search advertising is that it's people looking for information about you," Frenchman, of Connell Donatelli in Alexandria, said last week. "Right now I'm seeing 'palin wink' on Google Trends. I might use it. But first I would see what type of traffic is on it and what kind of discussion is around it. If I think it's positive, I would just dump it in with the rest of the words we're buying."
Anticipating the public's curiosity is a tricky business, however. To judge by the top political search terms, popular interests more often dwell on matters of personality, celebrity and gossip than on policy.
The Web research firm Hitwise, which samples data from 10 million U.S. Internet users, has ranked, for each candidate, the top 25 search phrases that include the candidate's last name.
For example, ranking among the top 25 search terms that include the word "palin" are "bristol palin," "sarah palin pictures," "sarah palin photos," "sarah palin hot photos" "sarah palin hot" "sarah palin affair" "snl video of palin clinton" "sarah palin swimsuit" "sarah palin pics" "palin affair" "sarah palin scandal" "sarah palin bikini" and "sarah palin beauty pageant."
Among the top 25 search phrases that include "mccain" are "how old is cindy mccain," "cindy mccain age" and a handful about the candidate's first wife and their children.
Among those for Obama are "obama jokes" "obama antichrist" "obama muslim" and "obama birth certificate."
"You have to go pretty far down these lists to find issues," said Bill Tancer, general manager of global research at Hitwise and author of "Click," a book about what people search for online.
The superficiality of the inquiries regarding Palin is striking, Tancer said, and reflects the newness of her celebrity.
"Sarah Palin is the new Paris Hilton," he said.
The McCain campaign has purchased thousands of keyword phrases. The Obama campaign appears to have bought fewer, but the search terms it is known to have purchased reach at least into the hundreds.
According to AdGooroo and SpyFu, among the thousands of terms purchased to send people to McCain Web sites are:
· "Hot wife," which linked to a biography of Cindy McCain.
· "Sarah palin pictures," which directed users to official campaign pictures.
· "Chavez" and "castro," which linked to a page advertising McCain's foreign policy.
· "Katrina" "against abortion," "global warming," "environmental pollution" and "gas prices," all tied to policy issues.
Among the search phrases that have been purchased to direct people to Obama Web sites are:
· "Barack muslim," which linked to a page informing viewers that he is not a Muslim.
· "Diane von furstenberg," which linked to a site selling Obama clothing.
· "Clinton" and "edwards," an effort to reach voters for his Democratic rivals in the primaries.
"Our search advertising accounts for a large portion of our new media strategy," said Nick Shapiro, an Obama spokesman.
Search ads also allow highly targeted negative advertising, and it can be done without inviting the level of scrutiny that accompanies print or television advertising.
For example, a voter searching for online information about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) last month, and who entered "hillary" in the search box, might have seen this ad pop up.
Is Obama The One?
Barack Obama
A Worldwide Sensation
But Is He Ready to Lead?
Learn More. JohnMcCain.com/TheOne
The ad, discovered by AdGooroo, directed viewers to a video stream on the McCain site that mocks Obama's lofty rhetoric and suggests that he sees himself as a religious figure -- there is even a clip of Charlton Heston as Moses parting the waters.
"It shall be known that in 2008 the world will be blessed," the announcer says, as clips of Obama float by. "They will call him 'The One.' He has anointed himself. . . . He can do no wrong. . . . Barack Obama may be the one, but is he ready to lead?"
"Our job as marketers is give them relevant advertising," Frenchman said.
Likewise, the Obama campaign ran an array of attack ads last month, targeting McCain's assertion of being a maverick ("Is McCain a Maverick? Nope.") and his links to lobbyists "McCain's Trip to Bermuda/Learn About the Lobbyists That Gave/McCain $50,000," among other issues.
The Obama campaign recently bought the term "diabetes" and other related phrases. A person seeking information about the disease would have found this blurb from the campaign, according to AdGooroo:
Do You Have Diabetes?
You Might Not Be Covered Under John McCain's Health Plan. Learn More.
BarackObama.com/Diabetes
"Everyone Googles now," said Richard Stokes, president of AdGooroo. "It's an unprecedented method to reach out to an audience with information at the exact instant that they're looking for information."
Or, as Sara Holoubek, a consultant who recently moderated a panel in New York on search advertising and the campaigns, said: "This is the year the campaigns finally got search."
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Joe Again? Say It Ain't So.
BYLINE: Dana Milbank
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 977 words
DATELINE: HEMPSTEAD, N.Y., Oct. 15
Before Wednesday night's final presidential debate, the big question had been whether John McCain would hit Barack Obama with Bill Ayers. Instead, he hit him with Joe the Plumber.
Ayers, the "washed-up terrorist," as McCain called him, had but a bit role; the Republican nominee instead focused on a plumber from Toledo who fears that Obama will make him pay higher taxes.
"Senator Obama was out in Ohio and he had an encounter with a guy who's a plumber. His name is Joe Wurzelbacher," the Republican nominee said at the start of the debate. Turning to Obama, McCain leveled a severe accusation: "What you want to do to Joe the Plumber and millions more like him is have their taxes increased and not be able to realize the American dream of owning their own business."
"Is that what you want to do?" the moderator, CBS's Bob Schieffer, asked Obama.
"That's what Joe believes," McCain maintained.
Obama, the front-runner, suddenly found himself on the defensive on the Joe issue. He sought to clarify "the conversation I had with Joe the Plumber."
McCain would not yield. "Small-business people like Joe the Plumber are going to create jobs unless you take that money from him and spread the wealth around," he said.
Obama, still embattled on the Joe front, acknowledged that "my friend and supporter, Warren Buffett, for example, could afford to pay a little more in taxes."
"We're talking about Joe the Plumber!" McCain interjected.
An hour later, they were still turning Joe into a real-life version of "Swing Vote," the Kevin Costner film in which one man single-handedly decides the presidency.
The Joe maneuver was emblematic of McCain's tactics in the final debate: He answered critics' demands that he go after Obama, but he did it with apparent ambivalence.
The first two debates had been relatively bland affairs, and McCain's failure to raise serious doubts about Obama left him badly trailing his opponent just three weeks before the election. The pre-debate conversation all but assumed the election was over and Obama was the president-elect. The question wasn't so much whether McCain could turn things around, but whether he would choose to go down fighting (likely sacrificing his dignity along the way) or choose to lose quietly but honorably.
Last night, McCain finally went on the attack against Obama, but he had to be coaxed into it by Schieffer. "Senator McCain, your commercials have included words like 'disrespectful,' 'dangerous,' 'dishonorable,' 'he lied.' Your running mate said he 'palled around with terrorists,' " the moderator said. "Are each of you tonight willing to sit at this table and say to each other's face what your campaigns and the people in your campaigns have said about each other?"
With a bit more prodding, McCain made his much-anticipated Ayers attack. "Mr. Ayers -- I don't care about an old washed-up terrorist, but as Senator Clinton said in her debates with you, we need to know the full extent of that relationship," he ventured. "We need to know the full extent of Senator Obama's relationship with ACORN, who is now on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy."
After a detailed defense by Obama, McCain pressed one more time. "You and Mr. Ayers, together, you sent $230,000 to ACORN," he charged. "And you launched your political campaign in Mr. Ayers's living room. . . . Senator Obama chooses to associate with a guy who in 2001 said that he wished he had have bombed more, and he had a long association with him. It's the fact that all the -- all of the details need to be known about Senator Obama's relationship with them and with ACORN and the American people will make a judgment.
"And my campaign is about getting this economy back on track," he added.
Obama chuckled. Schieffer moved on to another question -- and Ayers and ACORN, after a five-minute cameo, were gone.
In those five minutes, the Republican nominee became the man America had seen in his ads, whose slashing personal attacks on his opponent's character have, by most measures, done him more harm than good. Perhaps mindful of that, or perhaps set back by Obama's mild responses to his attacks, McCain, though delivering sharper jabs than he had in the earlier debates, was unwilling, or unable, to mount a sustained effort to undermine Obama's personal standing.
McCain quickly abandoned the personal line of attack for the more substantive but less cutting. "Senator Obama, your argument for standing up to the leaders of your party isn't very convincing," he said. And "Senator Obama . . . has never traveled south of our border." And Joe Biden "had this cockamamie idea about dividing Iraq into three countries."
Then, of course, there was Joe the Plumber. Some time after his first mention of Joe, McCain returned to the subject. "I've, I've talked to people like Joe the Plumber and tell him that I'm not going to spread his wealth around; I'm going to let him keep his wealth," he said. An hour after the first Joe mention, McCain reminded everybody that "my old buddy, Joe, Joe the Plumber, is out there" and would pay a fine under Obama's health plan. "I don't think that Joe right now wants to pay a fine," he said.
Obama appealed to Joe. "I'm happy to talk to you, Joe, too, if you're out there," he said. "Here's your fine -- zero. . . . In fact, Joe, if you want to do the right thing with your employees and you want to provide them health insurance, we'll give you a 50 percent credit."
"Joe, you're rich, congratulations," McCain said with sarcasm. McCain reminded the plumber that "Senator Obama wants government to do the job. I want, Joe, you to do the job."
Replied Obama: "All I want to do, if you've already got health care, is lower your costs. That includes you, Joe."
"Let's stop there," Schieffer recommended.
Is that okay with you, Joe?
LOAD-DATE: October 16, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jae C. Hong -- Associated Press; Barack Obama, face to face with plumber Joe Wurzelbacher in Ohio.
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The Washington Post
All Rights Reserved
208 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 16, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
The Financial Crisis And You: Impact on Your Investments
BYLINE: Tim Hanson, Investment Analyst, The Motley Fool, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4069 words
HIGHLIGHT: Motley Fool analyst Tim Hanson will be online Thursday, Oct. 16 at noon ET to take your questions and comments about what the tumultuous times on Wall Street mean for your investments.
Motley Fool analyst Tim Hanson will be online Thursday, Oct. 16 at noon ET to take your questions and comments about what the tumultuous times on Wall Street mean for your investments.
A transcript follows.
Tim Hanson is a senior analyst for The Motley Fool, and a contributor for Motley Fool Hidden Gems, a service that uncovers stocks that are underfollowed, undervalued and under Wall Street's radar. A graduate of Georgetown University, Tim specializes in the energy industry, following trends in oil, gas and alternative energy investments, as well as financial companies, retail businesses and restaurants.
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Arlington, Va.: Not really a question about investments, but rather timing. It seems that many big stock market crashes (1929, 1987, 2008) occur in October. Any particular reason why October? End of fiscal year? Start of school year, and end of summer vacations? Cool weather leads to pessimism? Any ideas?
Tim Hanson: Good question. I don't know.
The summer is usually pretty slow in the market because Wall Street -- and lots of us -- tend to be on vacation/not paying attention. Perhaps the problem with October is that it's about the time that everybody's gotten back in the office and had a few weeks to figure out just how bad it's gotten since they were last paying attention in May.
The market's a pretty insane and illogical place, though. Remembering that during times like these offers some comfort (to me, at least).
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Tim Hanson: Hello from Fool Global HQ in Alexandria, VA. We're celebrating our 15th anniversary this week, and it's interesting to look back at all of the financial crises we've dealth with since then. There was the Asian Contagion of 1997, the dot com bust of 2000, September 11th, and now the current global financial credit calamity. These are certainly interesting times, but it's important to remember that our system is periodically stressed and that we'll get through this eventually. In the meantime, let's see if we can help more investors deal with current market conditions and -- hopefully -- come out stronger on the other side.
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Washington, D.C.: Hi Tim - with all of the market volatility, I'm feeling like I should be moving some of my 401K investment money from small cap funds into mid- or large cap funds. Is this a smart move in general?
Tim Hanson: It looks like we're going to get a lot of asset allocation questions this afternoon. The general answer to all of them is that it depends on your investment timeline. The general rules of thumb are that if you're more than 10 years from retirement, you want to be 80% to 90% in stocks. If you're 3 to 10 years from retirement, you want to be 60% to 70% in stocks. And if you're nearing or in retirement, you want to be about 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds and principal-protecting treasuries.
As for the small cap/large cap question, that, too, depends on your timeline. Small caps are going to be more volatile than large caps generally, but as these past few weeks prove, large caps are not immune from swings. I'm partial to the small-cap sector myself (being a Hidden Gems employee), and if you have more than 10 years to retirement, I'd stick with a healthy small cap allocation since the sector historically offers the best returns.
But you need to do what's right for you. If you're fretting the current volatility, by all means do some reallocating. If there's a silver lining to the current crisis, it's that lots of sectors have gotten cheap at once. That gives long-term investors the opportunity to really perfect their portfolios by making sure we have exposure to all market caps, all countries, and all industries...because you're not paying a valuation premium to move around.
I'd also encourage folks who are looking to reallocate their 401(k)s to look hard at international options. Most Americans are underexposed to foreign stocks, and while these too will be volatile, the value/growth opportunity surrounding China, Brazil, and few other markets today is compelling.
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Great Falls, Va.: The financial crisis has just confirmed that the average american can no longer sit on the sidelines and hope their 401K investments will bail them out when they retire. Beyond the company match, why bother? Did you know during the last bull market 75 percent of mutual fund managers couldn't beat the S&P 500? We need to look beyond the mutual fund industry and wall street which has trapped so many Americans into thinking this is the only way to save. Investments in private equity like your own business, partnerships, commercial real estate, or other hard assets need to be considered.
Tim Hanson: I disagree with the premise here. If you're a young person with a 401(k), you need to keep contributing. If you have 20 to 30 years until you retire, your 401(k) is going to be much bigger then than it is today. The key, though, is to make sure your 401(k) is properly allocated relative to your timeline. If 401(k) participants near retirement were had a healthy allocation of bonds, they would have been spared a lot of pain these last few weeks. Young folks who have lost money shouldn't really care that much (but they should remember this when they're tempted to leave their money in stocks as they near retirement).
I read the other day that Congress held a hearing on abolishing 401(k) plans. I agree they're imperfect as currently constructed (let's give people more options and lower fees), but they're a powerful long-term savings vehicle. I hope that the next Congress doesn't use a few months of Wall Street chaos to limit the ability of Americans to own shares of the world's great businesses.
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Houston: Are small caps the place to be right now? What percent of your portfolio would you weight to small caps at this time?
Tim Hanson: I enjoy following small companies and am particularly partial to the micro caps (and specialize in studying them). That's because I think they're generally underfollowed by Wall Street and thus give investors the rare opportunity to gain and informational advantage over the market when it comes to valuing them.
But as I said earlier, these guys can be excrutiatingly volatile. They've been sold off en masse by risk-averse investors recently, and I think there are a number of very compelling micro cap opportunities right (indeed, I've bought a few). But if you want to invest, do your homework and buy a basket of them in the position size that you would normally allocate to one large cap.
If you don't want to research individual stocks, there are some good small cap funds out there run by Bridgeway and Royce.
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Rockville, Md.: Tim, Can you explain why gas prices are still a lot higher than they were the last time oil was at this price? Also why is it that when I went by a Shell gas station on Monday, gas was selling there for $3.70. At the BP gas station right next door, it was selling for $3.29! Is this an example of price gouging by the oil companies?
Tim Hanson: Retail gas prices are influenced by a lot of things. It could be that the folks at Shell don't change their signs until Tuesday.
I know lots of folks suspect that energy companies are gouging them, but it's not true. These guys are selling a product into the marketplace at a going rate. What's more, they operate in a cyclical and capital intenstive industry that can see violent boom and bust cycles (and they don't get a lot of sympathy when they're busting).
This is not to say that I'm a Big Oil apologist, but if you find yourself getting angry at gas prices, consider buying shares of some energy companies instead. It's a worthwhile business to be in.
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London: Could it be a good idea to leverage slightly now that we are nearing a possible bottom? Say, 10 percent leverage on top of a diversified portfolio?
Obviously, this is not money I need for the next few year...
Tim Hanson: We're not in the business of calling bottoms, and I think we still have some way to fall given the need for housing prices to come down a bit more to return to historically normal levels.
Moreover, given the crazy volatility we've seen recently (check out the VIX), I don't think leverage is a good idea. After all, as Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake Energy learned this week, margin calls can come at very inopportune times.
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Manassas, Va.: Hi, my TSP (government retirement savings plan)value dropped about 20 percent since the stock market tanked. About 90 percent of my TSP is in stocks with a mixture of small caps, international stocks, and common stock.
Although this drop makes me nervous, I decided to stay put and not reallocate my investment funds into more secure funds such as those guaranteed by government. I plan to retire in about 20 years.
Good idea, or should I shift to more bonds and less stocks?
Thanks!
Tim Hanson: If you've got 20 years to retirement, I wouldn't worry about what your balance is today. Sounds like you're heeding the general asset allocation guidelines I outlined above.
In times like this, lots of investors feel the need to get out of stocks and into safety. That's the fault of their brains. A recent book by Jason Zweig called Your Money & Your Brain showed that we're hardwired to hate losing money, and that we actually feel physically pain when we do.
But if you find yourself buying stocks after the market has had a great run and selling them when the market is tanking, then you're buying high and selling low, which is a very quick way to incinerate cash.
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Virginia Beach, Va.: We finally opened a Roth IRA for 2008 and maxed out about two months ago. While we know we're in it for the long term, we've watched it dwindle by almost $1K already.
For 2009, should we save up the money and dump into the account after we know things have stabilized a bit? Or do the monthly contributions throughout the year? FYI -- we're in our early 30s and already contribute to our TSPs. Thanks!
Tim Hanson: What you're talking about is something called dollar-cost averaging, and for most individual investors, I think it's a pretty sound idea.
After all, I don't know where the bottom will be in this market. But if you average in, you can get more bang for your buck as the market drops.
The flip side is that if the market rises, you won't do as well, but if you're clairvoyant about this market, then you should be doing this chat...not me!
One thing to keep in mind is to make sure you invest in chunks that are big enough to keep transaction costs to less than 1% or 2% of your investment. Otherwise, you're putting yourself in a hole when it comes to making money. Thankfully, transaction costs are pretty low nowadays, which is another reason to embrace dollar cost averaging.
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21771: Last week, getting nervous, I moved about one-third of my 401K in to government bonds. And all future contributions too. My thinking was to protect some of the funds against more loss and to leave some funds there for eventual recovery (when the market rises). Thoughts?
Tim Hanson: Again, it depends on your age. There is no perfect investment strategy. Rather, everyone needs to figure out the investment strategy/asset allocation strategy that's perfect for them.
If you're in/near retirement, you want to be protecting your principal and moving into bonds. If not, you should be sticking with stocks...and not quoting them daily (that's a good way to lose some hair as I'm fast finding out).
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Los Angeles: Reports that Americans' retirement plans lost $2 trillion in the past 15 months due to the stock market plunge should forever lay rest to Bush's Social Security restructuring scheme calling for private investment accounts. Prominent Republicans including McCain backed Bush's scheme. Doesn't the recent mortgage mess and decline in value of mortgage backed securities show that private investment accounts was another bad Bush idea, and that equity markets are too risky and unpredictable as a panacea for restructuring the Social Security program? McCain recommends an up or down congressional vote on Social Security reforms recommendations by a commission. Doesn't appear to be much leadership (mavericky or otherwise).
Tim Hanson: I've heard that statistic, and I think it's a little intellectually dishonest. Again, the state of your retirement savings depends entirely on how close you are to retirement. If $1.9999 trillion of that was lost by people 40 and under, then I'm not concerned. If $1.9999 trillion of that was lost by 65-year-old retirees, then I'm very concerned about the lack of education we're giving to investors.
Given my profession, you can probably guess that I'm pretty in favor of helping more Americans learn how to invest in the stock market. But in order to do so, we need to make sure there are learning resources out there. That's one of the reasons why I'm a proud Fool.
In all, stocks can be very mavericky over short periods of time, but they're pretty reliable over timespans that are measured in decades. That's why it's important to get investors started early, to teach them about asset allocation, and to help folks understand that times like this -- for long-term investors -- are opportunities, not disasters.
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Evanston, Ill.: What does the Motley Fool think of Hyman Minsky?
Tim Hanson: That's a sweet sweater vest in that picture.
Obviously, debt can be a very big problem, and the American economy has probably been living on cheap, borrowed money for too long. We're feeling the consequences of that today.
The takeaway for investors is to make sure you diversify outside of the U.S. China, for example, has an enormous budget surplus and a high national savings rate that should both help them weather a global economic downturn.
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Washington, DC: I'm 41, have a stable job, no serious debt, etc. I've been putting about 15 percent of my salary into stock index funds for the last year. Bad timing, obviously! (Most of my previous savings were put in -- and stayed -- in CDs and such. Poor returns, but I'm not much of a risk taker.)
I'm not planning on taking the money I put into index funds out -- why make the paper losses real? But, do you think I should reduce the amount I put into those funds every month? I.e., put a higher percentage into CDs and less into indexes?
Or, just keep with the habit and take the opportunity to buy stocks while they are low, even if I'm not likely to see any return for 5 years or more?
Thanks!
Tim Hanson: There's a relevant apocryphal investing aphorism/truism that can help here:
It's not timing the market that matters, but time in the market.
I'm not a registered investment advisor, so I can't give you specific advice, but remember the general rule that if you have more than 10 years to retirement, then stocks are your friend. And index funds are a great choice. They're generally low-cost, broadly diversified, and offer returns that most well-paid active mutual fund managers can't beat.
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New Orleans: Should Obama be elected and subsequently raise tax rates on capital gains and dividends, how might you adjust your portfolio? Would any sectors actually benefit under such a scenario?
Tim Hanson: This is fascinating question. Historically, the stock market has performed better under Democrat administrations than Republican ones, which seems slightly counterintuitive given tax issues.
But I don't think there's a clear cause & effect scenario here. (Cause & effect is extremely hard to pin down in a place that is as dynamic and chaotic as the stock market.)
That said, while there are certainly some policy implications depending on who wins the election (industries such as healthcare and energy may see their tax rates or profit margins affected), the longest an presidential administration can last is 8 years and the cynic in me would say that there will only be 2 functionally consequential years where things get done.
As for sectors that *might* benefit, alt energy and infrastructure seem like two industries Senator Obama has been talking up.
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NY: I'm wondering what effect all of this mass selling is having on the amount of now taxable capital gains accumulating in my mutual fund accounts? Is it possible that I will have lost 40 percent and still end up paying a big tax bill??
Tim Hanson: This is a very real possibility. That's why I chuckled the other day when Senator Obama mocked Senator McCain for wanting to lower cap gains rates. He said something like, "No one -- not even the smartest investors -- have capital gains today." That's an example of being too clever by half.
In fact, with all of the selling going on, mutual fund investors might get a pretty hefty year-end tax bill. You can offset some of those cap gains by selling companies you've lost faith in a realize capital losses, but the details will vary with your individual situation.
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Albany, N.Y.: I have about 20K money in my emergency fund. You know, in case I lose my job or need a new roof. I have kept it in a money market account with a decent return that keeps it fairly liquid. I am getting a little nervous about money markets these days. Where is the best place for your liquid assets these days?
Tim Hanson: If that 20K is in an FDIC-insured account, you are well below the government threshold for guaranteeing those funds. And kudos for having an emergency fund. It's something every needs to have.
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Abolishing 401k plans?!: How on earth could they do that? Would the investment companies have to payout every fund to its owner? That's an especially stupid move to consider in a down market, when our fund values are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Another topic - I have my 401k completely invested in one of those lifeband products - my target retirement date is 2040-ish. How will the health of those automatically recalibrated funds pull through this?
Tim Hanson: I'm shocked as well and don't think it's a good idea. This was the relvant hearing in the House: http://edlabor.house.gov/hearings/fc-2008-10-07.shtml
Target retirement funds are a great option for folks who just want to set and forget their 401(k)s. You keep contributing, and they'll keep reallocating for you. I hope more folks catch onto and employ these Target Retirment options.
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Sacramento, Calif.: Is now a good time to sell stock and rebalance my portfolio because of the reduced capital gains?
Tim Hanson: I said earlier that this is a great time to be rebalancing because so many sectors are cheap. Normally in the market, one or two sectors will get cheap at a time. A lawsuit against Merck might cause pharma to fall, for example. Decreased consumer spending could hurt retail.
But right now, there are lots of bargains out there. I think everyone should take a look at their portfolio and figure out what you have and what you don't have. And I'll say it for a third time, look abroad. Most Amercians are underexposed to foreign economies and currencies and would do well to get some exposure to Brazil, China, India, Europe, and the like.
After all, if you live here in the USA, you are likely invested in US stocks, own US assets, have a US job, and have all of your savings denominated in dollars. When something goes haywire, that makes you dangerously concentrated in one specific geographic region.
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Anonymous: I have a hard time explaining to my wife that any losses I show due to the market downtown are largely losses only if I sell now (there are, of course, lower dividends), and I plan on holding on to my investments (mainly mutual bonds and bonds such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and Pepsi Bottling) for at least 5 years so we don't yet have to panic. When SHOULD I panic?
Tim Hanson: You're not panicking yet???
Just kidding.
I've talked about this stuff so much with my wife, that she now tells me when she thinks there's a buying opportunity to be had. As for your question, there are times when there is a permanent impairment of value. Given what's happened at Fannie and Freddie, and the government involvement that now seems to dictate their fates, those may be stocks that are not coming back whether you sell them or not. Generally speaking, if you own an index fund, that's going to be so broadly diversified that owners have no reason to panic.
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Aldie, Va.: Huge cash infusion by governments = inflation, right? I understand the short-term liquidity needs, but long-term doesn't this have a large negative impact on savings?
Tim Hanson: Yes, there will be significant long-term effects, but this was a case where the alternative was looking pretty awful. We heard from some of our contacts in China that the Chinese and Japanese governments were on the verge of selling our treasuries into the open market unless our government stood up and stabilized this mess. Such a scenario would have diminished the government's ability to borrow money, crushed the dollar, and likely caused a crisis of confidence that would have caused capital to flee our markets like no other. Not good.
There is never a free lunch, but without these injections, I think we were staring down a far worse scenario.
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Germantown, Md.: I know I am not the only one, but I feel lost. I used up much of my 401K with the dot com bust, and more to provide nursing home care for my mother before she died. I was left with $365K in my Wachovia 401K, which is now down to $150K. I will be 60 on Monday, and don't think that staying with Wachovia Securities will do much for me at this point. I am open to suggestions as to where I could invest what little I have left.
Tim Hanson: This is a very sad story.
If your 401k was administered by Wachovia, that doesn't mean you were invested in Wachovia stock. That's a crucial distinction. You can stick with your administrator now that Wachovia has been acquired.
As for what to do, the general guidelines for people who are in retirement is that they need to be invested in principal protecting bonds and treasuries.
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State College, Pa.: We have heard a lot about the banking system being stressed due to a lack of trust, with ramifications rippling through other sectors that depend on banks. My question is, do you see other areas of the economy that similarly do business based on trust and so might be expected to freeze up? How about the stock market itself? It seems to me that a disappearance of liquidity might cause stock market declines that are not related to intrinsic value or even investor psychology. Who maintains the liquidity in the stock markets and are they affected by today's tight credit environment?
Tim Hanson: I'll close here with the famous quote from Warren Buffett's teacher Ben Graham:
In the short-term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long-term, it's a weighing machine.
That means that over short periods of time, the stock market will often respond violently and irrationally to news. Just look at the crazy volatility we've seen these past few weeks corresponding to moves and non-moves by the government.
Over the long-term, however, stocks are much more predictable, and if you focus on diversification, smart allocation, and companies with strong brands, balance sheets, and good management teams, you can be a successful long-term investor.
The current credit market issues are going to mean low, no, or negative growth this year and possible next. The stock market may fall further. But don't let that dissuade you from pursuing your investment goals. Good companies will attain to their intrinsic/fundamental values over the long term.
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Tim Hanson: We're out of time. I didn't get to all the questions, but I hope folks found this interesting and helpful.
Stay Foolish and come visit us on Fool.com for more stock market talk, asset allocation guidance, and investment ideas.
And let's go Hoyas. We're only a few days away from Midnight Madness.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 17, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Web Publication
Copyright 2008 Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive
All Rights Reserved
209 of 972 DOCUMENTS
Washingtonpost.com
October 16, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
Potomac Confidential;
Washington's Hour of Talk Power
BYLINE: Marc Fisher, Post Metro Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 7928 words
HIGHLIGHT: Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Today's Column: Longtime Slots Lover Doesn't Like the Action in Md. and complimentary Blog Post: Slots And The Politics Of Desperation
Fisher was online Thursday, Oct. 16, at Noon ET to look at the slots debate in Maryland, the presidential showdown in Virginia and budget cuts throughout the Washington area.
A transcript follows.
Check out Marc's blog, Raw Fisher.
In his weekly show, Fisher veers wildly from serious probing to silly prattle, and is open to topics local, national, personal and more.
Archives: Discussion Transcripts
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Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, folks. With two and a half weeks to go, Virginia is very much a key battleground state in the presidential race, and despite polls showing Barack Obama opening up a lead in the state, Republican party officials say they think John McCain's visit to Prince William County this coming Saturday is a sign of a revived effort that should keep the contest very close.
What would it take for McCain to regain the momentum in Virginia, and what does the prospect of a big Democratic victory in the state mean for the future of the GOP there? Will Frank Wolf end up as the only Republican member of the House of Representatives from inside the Beltway? How close are Democrats to taking two Republican House seats in Maryland--the one on the Eastern Shore and Ann Arundel County being vacated by Wayne Gilchrest, and the one from northern Montgomery and Frederick counties and points northwest now held by Roscoe Bartlett?
And in the District, does Carol Schwartz's write-in candidacy to retain her at-large Council seat stand a chance? Are you seeing evidence of a campaign active enough to drive voters to write in her name?
Today's column and a blog item as well look at the slots referendum in Maryland. Most polls say slots will win, perhaps handily, but what movement there is has been toward the No side.
On to your many comments and questions, but first, let's call the Yay and Nay of the Day:
Yay to the designers of Georgetown Waterfront Park, which has finally opened after many years of planning and several years of construction. The riverfront walkway and its gentle grassy knolls and a little maze that's pure fun make for an inviting and calming oasis along the Potomac, stretching from the Key Bridge to the Georgetown Harbour development. In a city that provides far too little pedestrian access to its waterfront, this is a great step forward--you can now walk along the water from Key Bridge to the Lincoln Memorial and beyond, sort of (it still gets a little cumbersome between Georgetown Harbour and the Watergate.) The city needs more of this, but this is an excellent start.
Nay to the bosses at the newly combined Sirius-XM satellite radio, who have begun a process that looks like it will lead to the end of XM's Washington headquarters, a big blow to the emerging NoMa (north of Massachusetts Avenue) area of Northeast Washington. XM was a pioneer in creating that new office and residential cluster, and the newish Metro station there probably wouldn't exist but for XM's gamble on the area. Satellite radio is in deep trouble as a business, so some consolidation was inevitable. But the move to sack 80 or so employees at the D.C. offices and studios is a sign of bad things to come, and it's happening just when that area can least afford it.
Your turn starts right now....
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Mt. Rainier, Md.: Marc, Mr. Roberts is so very right about slots and the lottery. I have argued against both of these for years. I have no problem with individuals playing poker or betting on a team; if it adds spice to their life, cool. But now the states are getting into the action and spending sincere amounts of money to convince us to buy lottery tickets or play slots, that this is going to be a grand way to win a million. Hah! Stand out in the rain and hope to be struck by lightening first, the odds are a ton better. It is unconscionable what they are doing to the most desperate people. Rich folk DON'T play slots.
Marc Fisher: Quite right, though the pro-slots people do have a point when they argue that there is a middle class audience for slots parlors that has more money than the generally less affluent group that played the numbers when that game was mob-run, or even than the state-run lotteries. Still, there's no question but that slots appeal to a less affluent demographic than would provide those tax dollars to the government through a progressive tax structure, and that's the fairness issue at the heart of the slots debate.
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CH in Bowie, Md.: What I don't understand about the slots proponents is if there are slots allowed in W.Va., Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware and they have budget problems what does Md., think is going happen? That magically we will have budget surpluses for the forseeable future? It is irresponsible for Md., legislators and Gov. O'Malley to think that this is anything other than a political ploy and appeasement of the horseraceing industry (I use the term industry) lightly. Finally, I will say that if all of the mid-Atlantic states have slots then won't there be a saturation point and all of the supposed revenue will dry up. Given the current financial woes (built around another type of gambling) I think this discussion is counterproductive and blurs the real issues and solutions.
Thank you.
Marc Fisher: The state's studies in favor of slots present an overly optimistic set of numbers that fails to take into account the dilution that would occur when all states in the region offer slots gambling, nor does Gov. O'Malley's campaign for slots account for the possibility that a gambling arms race would develop in which neighboring states move to full casino gambling to counter Maryland's move toward slots. I'm generally not one for "where does it end" arguments, but in this case, it's easy to see how state lotteries led to slots which in turn would lead to casino games.
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Palmer Park: The slots debate seems to boil down to a moral argument that gambling is evil, the poor don't know what's good for them, and slots lead to increased crime. There is no credible study of which I'm aware directly tying slots to an increase in crime. The idea that the poor need to be protected from their urges, reminds me of the 19th Century characterization of India's poor "the white man's burden." So we're left with "gambling is evil." Any comments?
washingtonpost.com: Longtime Slots Lover Doesn't Like the Action in Md. ( Post, Oct. 16)
Marc Fisher: I don't buy the "gambling is evil" argument in the slightest, and I still think slots are a dumb and immoral proposal for Maryland. Here's why: Gambling is indeed, as you say, something that people want to do, and if the state's people and elected officials think that's ok, that's fine with me. So I'd be perfectly happy to see sports gambling legalized, for example. But my objections to this slots plan are twofold:
First, I don't think government has the right to balance its budget based on sucking poor and middle class people dry. Taxation should be progressive--the rich should pay more than the poor, and slots turn that equation on its head.
Second, I don't see any reason why taxpayers should subsidize the horse racing industry. If people are no longer interested enough in that sport to support it on their own, then let the market forces prevail and let the sport fade away.
I don't buy the crime or morality arguments in the least.
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Baltimore, Md.: I am against slots and will vote no next month but I expect it to pass, as the necessary budget cutting O'Malley is carrying out will make the undecided go for the pro slots argument.
Marc Fisher: That sounds right, but isn't it sad that a governor who campaigned against slots then comes in and dishonestly presents it as the only alternative to dramatic cuts in the quality of public education?
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Alexandria, Va.: Marc -- a constant theme from you this year is that our public discourse is driven by a small but vocal minority on both sides of the political spectrum. While I don't necessarily disagree, I'd like to offer a different view. The number of ways to participate in the process these days is staggering. Between blogs, comments on news sites, local races, party precincts, county meetings, etc., there is a way to participate to fit whatever your leanings and time commitments. As a local civic association president, I can't get people to come and talk with our country supervisor when they come to our meetings. Many people don't participate simply because they can't be bothered. If they don't like the results of that, they shouldn't be surprised at the results.
Marc Fisher: Good thought--it's always important to remember that despite the fact that people like the folks who join the conversation here on the big show are considerably more involved than the average bear, and that for many, if not most, people, politics seems an irrelevant sideshow. I was reminded of this yesterday when I was visiting Northern Virginia Community College to talk to first-time voters, and in the course of three hours, I found hardly any students who were following the presidential race in anything that could be described as even a cursory manner, let alone in any depth.
I spoke to more than 100 students, and only two had watched any of the debates in anything more than the 30-second clips that might pop up on the news or on some entertainment site. Keep that in mind as we wade through the info overload in the more intensely involved world that many of us live in.
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Anonymous: Any reports on how many fradulent names have been registered to vote by ACORN in Maryland, D.C. and Virginia? I've been hearing that the actual impact on elections would be small since, for example, Mickey Mouse (one of those supposedly registered) would not show up to vote, but now Fox News says many have been able to vote. Perhaps conservatives are getting ready to, in the event of an Obama victory, charge that the Democrats stole the election? Ah, memories of 2000.
Marc Fisher: I haven't heard of any such activity by ACORN or other groups locally. It's unfortunate that the virus of elections fraud allegations has been loosed into our campaigns in this country, when the overwhelming majority of elections boards and officers throughout the country do an excellent job of running a system that is based largely on trust. The calls for paper receipts and the like are adding an element of mistrust to a system that has survived well based mainly on people coming to the polls and being who they say they are, without much of a mechanism for checking that out. There is no way to move more than a hundred million people through the polling places in a few hours with the kinds of safeguards that some partisans call for, nor should we engage in that kind of security hysteria.
It's the same as the national security issue and the phony checkpoints and safeguards that have been foisted upon us since 9/11--you either have an open society or you don't, and part of the decision to have an open society is to accept that there will be the occasional violation, which we will try to minimize, but about which we won't be crazy.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Do you think a well written Post endorsement would help seal the deal for Obama in Virginia? Usually, newspaper endorsements don't mean that much, but the imprimatur of The Post could persuade some moderate Northern Virginian residents. He may not need it, but what do you think?
Marc Fisher: I don't think newspaper endorsements have any impact on big races, whether it's Senate, governor or president. There are pretty good studies showing the lack of impact that endorsements have on presidential races. Where endorsements do matter and where they can be helpful to voters is on the smaller races, the local candidates and ballot questions on which most voters don't have the time or inclination to do much research on their own.
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Arlington, Va.: The Secret Service has now labeled the "Kill him" report as unfounded Secret Service says "Kill him" allegation unfounded ( Timesleader.com, Oct. 15)- why isn't the Post giving this report as much coverage as the original false report received?
Marc Fisher: I'm sure there'll be some further coverage of this. The latest news has the Secret Service saying both that they've been unable to confirm the original allegation of a shout of "Kill him," and that they are now investigating a second allegation along those lines. I was disappointed to hear Obama use that example in the debate last night--he ought to rise above that sort of ugliness, especially in the always-murky question of who shouted what in a big crowd. The issue between the campaigns ought to be the tone that each candidate sets, not the ravings of some lunatic in the crowd. There will always be lunatics, but how a candidate chooses to campaign is the important question.
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Arlington, Va.: I believe tough economic times require radical decisons. It's time for this country to go back to the original 13 states. California goes back to Mexico and Russia. Texas, Ariz., and N.M. back to Mexico too. Native Americans can have the rest.
And we go back the Constitution and just the Bill of Rights. No amendments.
Marc Fisher: Strip the Bill of Rights out of the Constitution and you might find that eventually a fair number of people would want to live in those lopped-off states rather than in your fantasy land of original intent.
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washingtonpost.com: Secret Service looking into Obama threat at rally ( AP)
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SilSpri, MoCo: Marc -- You have to follow up on the piece in today's paper about the widow of the cop killed in PG whose in-laws have kept his life insurance proceeds at the expense of the kids. I feel that some public shaming needs to come of this. Amazing.
washingtonpost.com: 'It's Still Day by Day,' Says Widow of Pr. George's Officer ( Post, Oct. 16)
Marc Fisher: This is the story of a widow of a slain officer whose life insurance proceeds are going to the officer's mother and brother rather than to the widow and the officer's two daughters.
It sounds like an internecine family battle royal and we don't know the half of it, I'm sure. In a perfect world, you'd want the kids to get the money, but without knowing the details of the family antagonisms, I can't say I see a clear path toward a rant.
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Clifton, Va.: Good news regular was selling for $2.98 a gallon at the Exxon in Catlett. In another couple of weeks unless something unexpected happens the price of gallon of regualr should be below $3.00 in the closer in NOVA burbs.
The combination of a worldwide recession and China dumping all the gas and oil they didn't need for the Olympics is helping prices.
Marc, time for you to see the Dodge Boys and get that 2009 V10 powered 4x4 dualie pick-up you have lusted for!
The price of a barrel of oil may hit $35 before prices level off.
Marc Fisher: In Manassas yesterday, I got regular for $2.79, which is just amazing. Especially when you consider that there are still plenty of stations in the District and Maryland where regular is still bumping up against $4.
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Burke, Va.: Marc,
Nice job with the coverage of the Gilmore/Warner Senate race in Virginia. Any chance you will look at the local House races before the election? I've seen little or no coverage of the local races in either the paper or on the Web site . . .
washingtonpost.com: A Lead Like Warner's Might Make Obama More Interesting ( Post, Oct. 9)
Marc Fisher: It's coming.
I hope to get into at least a couple of the House races in the next couple of weeks, and I know we will have news coverage on some of those races as well.
The close ones are likely to be Maryland 1, the Kratovil-Harris race to succeed Wayne Gilchrest, and perhaps the Jennifer Dougherty challenge to Roscoe Bartlett in Maryland 6. In Virginia, I haven't found many on either side of aisle who think that Judy Feder stands much of a chance of displacing Rep. Frank Wolf in his Fairfax/Loudoun and points west district, but there are signs that Rep. Thelma Drake may be in some trouble from Democrat Glenn Nye's challenge in the 2nd District.
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Arlington, Va. (someone else): Marc, he said "And we go back -- to -- the Constitution and just the Bill of Rights..."
So it doesn't sound like he wants to strip out the Bill of Rights.
Marc Fisher: Ah, I missed that bit--sorry. Thanks for the correction.
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Alexandria, Va.: Slots... if people in Md., want them, that's fine.
As long as they understand that the casinos have engineered the slots to get money from your pocket into theirs in the quickest manner possible. You don't have to pull the lever any more. Most machines won't take cash or coins -- you have to load up a card and use the card at the slot machine. Once you've made the emotional commitment to put $XX cash on the card, you'll play until you've hit a jackpot, or until the card is depleted.
As long as people know that, then slots are okay.
Marc Fisher: The man I profiled in today's column, Whitey Roberts, showed me how the old mechanical slot machines could be played with some skill--like a safecracker, a savvy slots player could learn to feel the grooves of each lever, so that you could measure your pull and enhance your chances of winning. That's not remotely possible with the electronic slots machines, which are set for all different levels of payout, so that some machines pay more often (but with smaller jackpots) than other machines. It's a sucker's bet, of course, and you're far better off at the gaming tables at a real casino.
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Just as fun as playing the slots: I'd like to invite those who enjoy the slots to come over my place to throw their money into my mail slot. I'll keep a garbage can on the other side to collect. Thanks!
Marc Fisher: But you have to agree to supply the players with bells, whistles and lots of colorful lights!
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washingtonpost.com: Longtime Slots Lover Doesn't Like the Action in Md. ( Post, Oct. 16)
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Prince Frederick, Md.: Peter Franchot has been campaigning against slots all over the state, but he sponsored and wrote two bills proposing slots in Maryland (in 1998 and 2001)! Since then, he's said that he was "misinformed" back then, but now he understands the issue, which is why he's against it. My question is -- how can a legislator sponsor and write bills that he is misinformed about, and if we can't trust him to understand issues he takes a stand on, how can we trust him now?
Marc Fisher: Sounds like you're preparing for a career writing TV ads for presidential candidates!
Why would any voter care whether Peter Franchot was or wasn't for or against slots at any given point of his career, or even whether he's campaigning against slots now? Voters should make up their minds on slots based on the merits--how should government raise money for essential services? Is it right to rely on people's greed and entertainment to raise public dollars? Should states compete for gambling dollars? Those are the questions that matter, not the motives or history of any politician on any side of the issue. (And yes, that means that my carping about O'Malley and Ehrlich's switcheroos is as irrelevant as yours about Franchot's.)
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Silver Spring, Md.: I was saddened and amused to read the story in The Post this week about the hotel that put up a sign/banner in favor of the McCain/Palin candidacy. People were calling the NAACP? Sheesh, having a different viewpoint these days seems tantamount to hate speech. There does not seem to be any respect for differing opinions. This is a sad state of affairs in my estimation. People only seem to talk anymore to those who agree with them and think like them. Then, they go on to blogs where those thought processes get reinforced. It impedes open and honest communication of the differences and is a sad state of affairs that our society has backed itself into.
washingtonpost.com: Candidate Banners Can Leave Clients, Businesses Bruised ( Post, Oct. 12)
Marc Fisher: I was fascinated by that story too. Sure, people have a right to decide not to frequent a business that makes a bright public show of its support for one political cause or candidate. But to say that the business owner is wrong or bad for publicizing his viewpoint rubs me the wrong way.
Most business owners are smart enough to steer clear of partisan politics because they want all customers to feel equally comfortable coming to do business with them. But when any citizen feels compelled to take a stand and try to persuade their neighbors of that position, that's a good thing. So I applaud the hotel owners for standing up for their candidate--but they have to do so knowing that some folks on the other side will say, hey, I'm taking my business elsewhere.
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Washington, D.C.: What's your take on Michelle Rhee hiring and then firing the principal of Shepherd? I really am rooting for her to succeed for the sake of the students, but this seems to suggest some major judgment flaws.
Marc Fisher: Excellent story by The Post's Bill Turque today getting as close as we can into that decision to fire the principal that she apparently hand-picked. Rhee has chosen to live or die on the theory that getting rid of incompetents and hiring dynamic new principals and teachers is the key to improving the city's schools. So it's fair to judge her on these principal moves.
In the case of the principal she sacked from her own kids' school, it sounds as though she made the right move--even the faculty there seem to believe this principal had to go. But I think Rhee should have recused herself from any role in determining who's in charge at the school her own kids attend or even from commenting on that decision. Surely there are others in the school system hierarchy who could have been entrusted with that decision.
In the case of the Shepherd principal, it sounds like there was a failure to vet the woman properly--when the folks at her previous school were not even approached for comment, that's a problem.
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Woodley Park, Washington, D.C.: Cleveland Park Giant.
This has been almost 10 years in the making. Will we see groundbreaking or will the Cleveland Park NIMBYs prevail again?
Marc Fisher: The NIMBYs are coming out of the woodwork again on that long-delayed project. You would think that after years of life with a largely-shuttered retail strip in that tony part of the city, even the reflexively anti-development crowd would start to see that doing nothing is a bad idea. But never underestimate the desire of some urban residents to pretend they live on a farm.
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washingtonpost.com: Candidates Touch On D.C. Schools ( Post, Oct. 16)
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Falls Church, Va.: I understand your Nay of the day but seriously look at the bigger picture. 80 people layed off is not nearly as serious as 1,000's of people when a manufacturing plant closes in a small town. I do not think D.C. is as close to the edge as you think. There are many other communities that have already fallen off. We have a lot to be thankful for.
Marc Fisher: Right--if it were just 80 people, the XM layoffs would be a minor story. But if this is just the first wave and if the plan is to shut down the Washington headquarters entirely, that will have a major impact on that chunk of the city and on the development of the District as a media center. Yes, the District as a whole is better off and will survive the recession better than many other communities, but that doesn't mean it will be smooth sailing, and the XM move, if it happens, is a signal to D.C. politicians that they have to get serious about budget cuts.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Marc, do you approve of XM/Sirius minimizing music in favor of sports and talk and if so, is it because there are no commercials on the music channels?
Marc Fisher: No, I think that's a bad move strategically. The talk and news on satellite radio is for the most part programming that's also easily available on broadcast radio and TV. What's distinctive about satellite programming is the music and the sports, so even if there are no commercials on the music channels, that's what's selling those subscriptions, not the chance to hear the same old political blather from the same old talkmeisters.
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I was fascinated by that story too: I bet you would be infuriated if the situation was reversed and someone complained about an Obama sign. Of course whoever complained would be labled as racist by The Post, because if you're not for Obama you MUST be racist, right?
Marc Fisher: I can't imagine why the story would be any different if flipped around as you suggest. The same principles apply, and the sign would have the same effect, alienating a similarly sized portion of the potential customer base.
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Montgomery Village, Md.: While I am on THIS side of the river, what is the deal with Virginia election officials saying that voters may not wear t-shirts, buttons, hats, etc., which indicate support or opposition to any candidate or cause in the polling place? It seems the ACLU or somebody will have a field day with this. Good thing Bush isn't running this time or you couldn't wear your Nats cap to the polls!
Marc Fisher: Ha!
The regulations on that are all over the map as you look across different states. The ACLU is indeed taking action to challenge the Virginia rule. The same shirt that would get you tossed from your polling place in Virginia is just fine in the District. That's our federal system, of course, but you'd think that the voting rules would reflect the fairly consistent line of court rulings on clothing as protected speech. Even schools are generally required to allow kids to wear clothes that express a political perspective, though principals do get to set rules about community standards.
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Bowie, Md.: In the debate last night Sen. McCain said that if Sen. Obama wanted to run against Pres. Bush, then he should have run 4 years ago. My question is if Sen. McCain was so against Pres. Bush's policies for the past 8 years and is such a maverick then why didn't he run 4 years ago? Wasn't Pres. Bush unopposed in his nomination in 2004?
Marc Fisher: Good one. We're writing these guys lines for them--too bad there is no fourth debate.
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"Health of the Mother": I know the Democrats have long used the overturning of Roe as a scare tactic. But I am quite confident that I am not the only woman in the country who found McCain's "health of the mother" argument last night upsetting. I was not alive before Roe. I do not know if somehow people were exaggerating claims to their lives to have an abortion. But to claim that protecting the mother's health and life in an "extreme" stance in the pro-choice movement is absurd and condescending.
Marc Fisher: I was surprised that McCain allowed himself to be pulled into an abortion debate--but apparently he feels he still needs to shore up his base. It's awfully late in the process to be still making that sale; by now, you'd think he'd be frantically tacking to the center to try to capture votes from the vast majority of Americans who don't want the government telling them whether or not they can resort to abortion.
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Chicago, Ill.:" There will always be lunatics, but how a candidate chooses to campaign is the important question"
Right, but I think that was the entire point: implying Obama is a "secret Muslim Arab" while 'explicitly' calling him someone who "pals around with terrorists" is inflamatory. "How the candidate chooses to campaign" is 'exactly' the issue.
Why pretend these things are unrelated?
Marc Fisher: The distinction I was making was between what the candidates say and do versus what random, unknown people in the crowd might say. So yes, when the folks introducing McCain and Palin on stage get into the "Hussein" business, that's a choice by the campaign and the campaign ought to be held accountable for that. But for Obama to harp on the ravings of some nutjob in the crowd is to spread fear and loathing in an unacceptably low manner.
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Senior Citizens: Why are the presidential debates only moderated by old, white men? Is there not a single qualified person who is not eligible to collect Social Security qualified to moderate the debates? Maybe having Ifill do one of the presidential debates as she is none of the above, old, white or male. It just seems so incredibly behind the times to not step out of this mold. Can you imagine the rights uproar if all the debates has been moderated by African-American men in their 40s?
Marc Fisher: Why would it matter what age, race or other demographic category the moderator of a debate is? The only issue should be whether the moderator can control the debate and push the candidates off their packaged and unhelpful responses. Bob Schieffer uniquely among this year's moderators was able to do that; the others made little or no headway.
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Bowie, Md.: So I spent Sunday afternoon watching a couple of football games and was struck by the campaign ads being run. Not by the number of them, but by the fact that every single one of them was an Obama ad. He must have a MAJOR money advantage at this point. By the way, very few of the ads featured Obama, except for the "I approve this ad" section. Most feature his opponent.
Marc Fisher: This was McCain's sly way of turning around the debate last night--since Obama's ads so vastly outnumber McCain's, McCain was able to contend that Obama is running more negative spots. But of course the issue was what portion of each candidate's ads are attacks.
So here's my question: If, as the polls keep telling us, people want to hear about issues and don't like the attacks, then what is the research backing up the decision to go mainly with attacks? I'd love to see a smart piece comparing those two sets of data--the one that supports the notion that voters--and especially undecided voters--don't like attack ads, and the other that supports the consultants who sell the candidates on going with the hard attack focus.
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Woodbridge, Va.: I was in Ohio last weekend with about 30 other women and ended up spending/buying all sorts of stuff that I love but don't really need.
Do I get a gold star for the day -- helping retail sales come back? Now will the Dow rise again?
Marc Fisher: No, you'd get the star if you had done your shopping locally. But now we keep hearing that we're supposed to save, not spend. Here we were thinking after 9/11 that the patriotic thing to do was spend money we didn't have, and now all of a sudden, the nation's leaders want us to save. This is yet another issue on which the presidential candidates refuse to speak, though Obama did obliquely refer last night to the idea that we have some lifestyle changes ahead of us.
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Blue, Virginia: I wonder if the Virginia Republican party's choice of a senatorial candidate is doing to the tilt. I'm a Democrat who has voted for Tom Davis in the past -- he, like John Warner seems to try to represent all Virginians, not just the party's base. Every time Jim Gilmore opens his mouth, and the center flocks to the very competent, moderate Mark Warner, I wonder if the presidential candidate benefits.
Marc Fisher: I'm not seeing a whole lot of reverse coattails there. Mark Warner is an Obama supporter and he mentions that wherever he goes, but he's also very careful to welcome McCain-Warner voters. We had a story, I think yesterday, that noted that the Obama camp is asking Warner, Gov. Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb to step out more overtly for Obama in Virginia, and I'll be interested to see if we do get to see Warner embracing Obama in TV spots in the coming days.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Many voters around here are the children or grandparents of immigrants. Thus I was taken aback by John McCain's avowed pride during his closing remarks over generations of McCains having served the U.S. -- as though those of us whose families haven't been here long enough to compile such a record somehow aren't as good Americans as his family is. Did you think McCain made a misstep with this comment, or was it an intentional slap at immigrant families?
Marc Fisher: Certainly not an intentional slap of any kind. But that kind of reference to four generations of service, while obviously stated with patriotic pride, can rub relative newcomers the wrong way. Still, given McCain's courageous stand in favor of immigration and immigrants against the bulk of his own party is, I think, more meaningful than whatever implications you might have drawn from that comment in the debate.
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But you have to agree to supply the players with bells, whistles and lots of colorful lights! : I'll throw in a margarita!
Marc Fisher: Free? Very big of you.
How about a few pretzels, too? Or would you rather that your visitors be reeling from an all-liquid diet?
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Bethesda, Md.: D.C. a media center? Where in the world did you pull that idea from? Sure NPR is located in D.C. as well as outposts for the large media but c'mon if the choice is N.Y. or D.C., N.Y. is going to win everytime
Marc Fisher: Of course New York is and will be by leaps and bounds the bigger and more important media capital. But XM was a powerful statement that this region has a strong secondary role to play, whether it's in the video production field, with Discovery and National Geographic being huge, if not dominant, figures in that sector, and on the journalism side as well. The presence of XM and NPR made for a powerful statement about this region's role on the audio side.
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Virginia: I'm an election official; we have been told every time I've worked a precinct that the polling place is supposed to be neutral. That's why we have the rule keeping campaign workers 40 feet away from the entrance to any polls.
We have had people show up in t-shirts with some snotty things on them (and I was for these candidates so it's not like I was taking it personally). We allowed them the option to go into the bathroom, turn over the t-shirts and get back into line. If they had on buttons, we'd ask them nicely to take them off while they were in line. Everyone was pretty cool except for one woman's HUSBAND who pretty much threatened me. I just said, "These are the rules. I didn't make them; contact your local legislator if you disagree." Luckily his wife asked him to calm down. I understand the First Amendment rights but I think the IDEA behind it is to provide people with a neutral place.
(Granted, I would be shocked that anyone could come to vote without having their mind made up. OTOH, we had people who didn't have a clue about the Marriage Law and would ask us what it was about and "how we should vote." And we'd say vote your conscience...)
Marc Fisher: Good for you for calmly enforcing the rules as they were handed to you. But if we're talking about the merits of the rules, I can't say that I see any real distinction between the impact of a partisan t-shirt in a polling place and one worn at a workplace, in a school or out on the street. The rule against electioneering at the polls is a good one; no one wants someone with an Obama or McCain sign hovering over them at the booth. But if the guy in the next booth is wearing a Nader shirt, so what?
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Shopping machines?: So, if Woodbridge, Va., (who spent the day shopping for things she didn't need) lived in Maryland, would we have to impose state restrictions on her shopping for things she didn't need since if she is lower or middle class, that is essentially a tax that shouldn't be forced to bear. Only the rich and upper classes should be able to go out shopping for things they don't need.
Marc Fisher: I love it when you folks craft these beautiful transition posts so I can easily pivot back to an earlier topic. A final few slots posts follow....
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20036: You appear to think that only the poor would take advantage of slots if they pass. Do you want to ban drinking, smoking, and the lottery because poor people engage in those vices which they really can't afford? Do you also want to get rid of upscal stores like Neiman Marcus or Saks because the poor can't afford to shop there (but they do anyway)?
Life doesn't revolve around just one group of people. Aren't we all in this together?
Marc Fisher: I don't want to ban any of those activities, and if the public consensus is that they should be legal, then let's have at it. What I do object to is the government shirking its responsibility to raise money fairly--so sure, legalize slots, legalize casinos, legalize sports gambling, just don't take any money for public functions from those sources. If as you say we are all in this together, then we should all do our part to pay for the services we collectively need from government, and that means that we don't fob that responsibility off on those who are foolish enough to waste their money on bad bets.
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It's their choice to make:"First, I don't think government has the right to balance its budget based on sucking poor and middle class people dry. Taxation should be progressive -- the rich should pay more than the poor, and slots turn that equation on its head."
However, if this is a tax, this is a voluntary tax. No one is deducting this money from their paychecks. No one is driving them to the tracks and making them put money into the slot machines at gunpoint. If they want to spend them money on a pipedream, let them. You can't stop people from wasting their money. Are you going to stop people from buying products that they can't afford? Are you going to stop lower income people from investing their money in bad investments, businesses, or services? There is only so much that we can mollycoddle people. Most of them will find a way to spend that money whether on slots here or driving to another state. Why don't we save them gas and earn the income here in Maryland where at least they'll get some small percentage of that back in state services rather than have them give that money to neighboring states?
Marc Fisher: It's not mollycoddling to tell folks that, hey, you're free to gamble away every penny you have, but we as a society are not going to choose to profit off your dumb behavior. So sure, legalize casinos and yes, tax them like any other business, but don't get the state involved as a player and don't put the state in the business of encouraging people to gamble away their savings.
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Anonymous:"It's a sucker's bet, of course, and you're far better off at the gaming tables at a real casino."
This is untrue. Unless you are proficient at card-counting in blackjack.
Marc Fisher: Right--there's skill involved in card-counting, and none in slots. (Yes, card counting is against the rules, but the point is that there is some skill involved, just as there is in blackjack without card-counting.)
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Exiled in New England: Hi Marc,
I used to work on 9th and E, and we're planning a visit back this coming weekend. We're now suburbanites with a car. Where can we park for about an hour on Friday afternoon in the vicinity of Gallery Place/Chinatown or Navy Memorial/Archives? Thank you!
Marc Fisher: There are plenty of public lots right there, including at Gallery Place itself, but you'd be a lot happier and you'd spend less money if you park somewhere outside the city or outside of downtown and took Metro to either of those stations.
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Washington, D.C.: The moderator point is very good one. It matters because it shows exactly who has great power in the media. And if it doesn't matter - then let's change the default and have Barbara Walters, Connie Chung, and Katie Couric moderate. I doubt they could do any worse than Lehrer, Brokaw, and Schieffer.
Marc Fisher: I'd far rather see the commission select unknown moderators--the choice of TV celebrities only adds to the perception that politics is about celebrity and is a game among famous people. There's no reason for the moderator to be anyone that the audience has ever seen or heard of. A good debate professor or a journalist who isn't a TV star or a reformed former politician might provide better steering for a presidential debate.
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Silver Spring, Md.: It's impossible for me to get pregnant, so it's not personal, but McCain's nastiness on the health of the mother issue closed the deal for me.
Not even Catholic hospitals these days save babies at the expense of mothers in labor.
Geesh.
Marc Fisher: We're out of time, so just a few last bits....
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Ifill on debate: Remember that she wrote a book about Obama. It was sketchy enough on the VP debate, but the conflict would be too obvious if she were moderating a presidential debate.
That's not to say she did a bad or biased job with Biden/Palin -- it's the optics.
Marc Fisher: But isn't the only thing that matters how she handled the debate?
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Washington, D.C.: Before the merger Sirius never hid the fact that consolidation would lead to the eventual suspension of operations in D.C. And even if they hadn't been forthcoming did you really think they would keep both HQs open when the entire purpose of the merger was to cut costs?
Marc Fisher: Actually, Sirius management said exactly the opposite--that the Washington operations would be maintained.
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Washington, D.C.: No commercials on the music channels? I have XM in my car, and I can think of at least 3 channels on my 16 music channel presets that run commercials or "advice" type segments (the latter on channel 24). Just like regular radio, I start pushing buttons to find something else.
Marc Fisher: The music channels programmed by XM have no commercials. A few of the music channels are programmed by outside companies, such as Clear Channel, and they do have ads.
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Union Station, D.C.: What are your thoughts on campaign bumper stickers and yard signs? I'm not sure what to make of them.
Marc Fisher: I like them as a quick, easy, if unscientific, guide to where you are and who lives there and how people are thinking. In Manassas yesterday, I got to see the debate that's going on between Obama and McCain supporters in the same downtown neighborhood, where some signs have been defaced or destroyed and people are fighting back with new signs challenging their neighbors to respect free speech.
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Virginia: In listening to Gilmore, it doesn't seem to him that he created any financial problems for the state with "No Car Tax" program. I guess I'm curious. How does he reconcile the budget problems? Obviously Mark Warner wasn't handing out money to everyone. I guess it's a rhetorical question, do these guys believe their own BS?
Marc Fisher: Some of them do, and that's scary. The ones who don't believe their own nonsense can be very entertaining, but ultimately, the gap between what they say and what they believe is even more frightening.
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Bethesda, Md.: I haven't seen any polls, but I'd be quite surprised if Roscoe Bartlett's congressional seat is in any jeopardy. Got to bear in mind that his highly-gerrymandered district includes just about every Republican-majority area in Western Maryland. Even including that little piece of Northern MoCo that habitually votes GOP.
Marc Fisher: Quite right, and I expect he survives, but people are in a definite throw-the-bums-out mood, so there are likely to be some surprises.
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Better off at the gaming tables: I am opposed to the slots referendum for two reasons.
I see no reason why gaming tables should not be allowed if slots are allowed.
Second, I am opposed to the sweetheart deals that this proposal will give to a few developers.
I would have voted for a referendum which legalized all gambling and left it up to the local governments for zoning approval.
Marc Fisher: Interesting--good points.
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Political signs at businesses: I think the point was the business put up the sign in an area where Obama supporters were prevalent and that the hotel was frequently used for Democratic functions. It would be like a hotel in Lynchburg that was often used for Republican functions putting up a pro-Obama sign.
As a free speech purist, I say go for it, but don't be surprised by the outcome.
Marc Fisher: Right.
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Baltimore, Md.: Slots -- Moral and Crime issues aside, what about the fact that the ballot initiative will be changing our state Constitution to REQUIRE us to have slots and to REQUIRE them to be placed in specific locations in the state? The fact that this is changing our constitution is why I am opposed.
Marc Fisher: Another good reason.
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Regarding the slain officer: I think the "moral" of that story is to CHECK your insurance documents, wills, etc., periodically, and ESPECIALLY if you have a change of life situation -- you get married, have a new kid or grandkid, your parent or sibling dies, etc.
I've seen too much family drama over situations where the black sheep grandkid inherited the dead kid's share of the grandparent's estate. It's also not fun when you have a relative die and all the heirs the relative named in his will are deceased too.
I'm not trying to say anything nasty about a police officer whose sacrifice I honor. But, please, check your paperwork so that the same thing doesn't happen to you.
Marc Fisher: Good advice.
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Bethesda, Md.: I'm a longtime Washington Post reader, and while I'm still undecided about this issue, I frankly have been very disappointed with The Post's seemingly slanted coverage of the slots debate. Most recently, anti-slots folks are talking about this study that questions the revenue that slots will bring in, but this study was paid for by anti-gambling interests. It claims to be objective, but I'm skeptical that the anti-slots folks didn't just get exactly what they paid for. Even if a pro-slots study emerged from somewhere like the Kennedy School of Gov't, if it had been funded by gambling interests, the Post and others would be crying foul.
Marc Fisher: Slanted in which direction? My mail accuses us of bias both for and against slots, in pretty even numbers.
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Marc Fisher: That has to kick things in the head for today. Thanks very much for coming along, and apologies to those I couldn't get to. More on the blog every day, plus more politics in Sunday's column. And fall is coming, tonight! Finally!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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October 16, 2008 Thursday 11:48 AM EST
'Not President Bush'
BYLINE: Dan Froomkin, Special to washingtonpost.com, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 3717 words
HIGHLIGHT: Debating in the shadow of a financial collapse and a presidency that has been found wanting, Republican presidential candidate John McCain made his most dramatic attempt yet to distance himself from his party's leader last night.
Debating in the shadow of a financial collapse and a presidency that has been found wanting, Republican presidential candidate John McCain made his most dramatic attempt yet to distance himself from his party's leader last night.
"I am not President Bush," McCain told Democratic candidate Barack Obama during the final presidential debate. "If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago. I'm going to give a new direction to this economy in this country."
But at last night's debate on domestic policy, Obama repeatedly tied McCain to Bush's dismal legacy -- particularly his economic policies.
"When President Bush came into office, we had a budget surplus and the national debt was a little over $5 trillion. It has doubled over the last eight years. And we are now looking at a deficit of well over half a trillion dollars," Obama said. "So one of the things that I think we have to recognize is pursuing the same kinds of policies that we pursued over the last eight years is not going to bring down the deficit. And, frankly, Senator McCain voted for four out of five of President Bush's budgets. We've got to take this in a new direction, that's what I propose as president."
After McCain's not-Bush retort, Obama continued to press his point: "The fact of the matter is that if I occasionally have mistaken your policies for George Bush's policies, it's because on the core economic issues that matter to the American people, on tax policy, on energy policy, on spending priorities, you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush.
"Now, you've shown independence -- commendable independence, on some key issues like torture, for example, and I give you enormous credit for that. But when it comes to economic policies, essentially what you're proposing is eight more years of the same thing. And it hasn't worked. And I think the American people understand it hasn't worked. We need to move in a new direction."
McCain, for his part, ticked off his differences from Bush: "It's very clear that I have disagreed with the Bush administration. I have disagreed with leaders of my own party. I've got the scars to prove it. Whether it be bringing climate change to the floor of the Senate for the first time. Whether it be opposition to spending and earmarks, whether it be the issue of torture, whether it be the conduct of the war in Iraq, which I vigorously opposed. Whether it be on fighting the pharmaceutical companies on Medicare prescription drugs, importation. Whether it be fighting for an HMO patient's bill of rights. Whether it be the establishment of the 9/11 Commission. I have a long record of reform and fighting through on the floor of the United States Senate."
And he concluded with another dig at the current president: "My friends, as I said in my opening remarks, these are very difficult times and challenges for America. And they were graphically demonstrated again today. America needs a new direction. We cannot be satisfied with what we've been doing for the last eight years."
Steve Benen blogs for Washington Monthly about this morning's new campaign ads. McCain's starts off: "The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they? I'll make the next four better." Obama's ad shows footage of McCain saying: "I voted with the president over 90% of the time -- higher than a lot of my even Republican colleagues."
R. Jeffrey Smith writes in The Washington Post about the "at least 303 out-of-town trips by senior Bush appointees meant to lend prestige or bring federal grants to 99 politically endangered Republicans [in 2006], in a White House campaign that House Democratic investigators yesterday called unprecedented in scope and scale.
"Federal law prohibits the use of public funds or resources for partisan activities . . . but the agencies involved said most of the trips were paid for by taxpayer funds, according to the draft report released by the Democratic majority of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. . . .
"A July 2006 White House e-mail said that as the elections got closer, officials would have to participate in at least five 'recommended events' per month. The message went to the appointed liaisons at 18 departments and agencies, who sometimes functioned like political commissars, enforcing discipline and rallying top appointees to the cause."
But the report says that since many of those "involved in organizing the trips are no longer in office, 'there is no effective remedy' for any related violations of the 1939 Hatch Act, which restricts the use of public funds for partisan gain. . . .
"The existence of the White House effort to turn federal officials into instruments of the 2006 Republican campaign effort is already well known. [See, most notably, this August 2007 Washington Post story, How Rove Directed Federal Assets for GOP Gains.] But the House report, based on a review of more than 63,000 pages of internal documents, includes fresh details about which Cabinet members participated and who benefited."
Smith writes that the Democratic contention that this behavior was unprecedented was disputed by the committee's senior Republican, Rep. Tom Davis (Va.). "'The same kind of things [were] done by every administration since Eisenhower,' he said, and he compared the Democrats' 'angry swooning' to the scene in 'Casablanca' when the police captain feigns shock at finding gambling in Humphrey Bogart's nightclub. Not since then, he said, has 'righteous indignation seemed quite so contrived.'"
Is this sort of activity going on right now? It's certainly possible -- and worth looking into. While few Republican candidates are clamoring to be associated with the current administration, that wasn't what the 2006 trips were really about. They were primarily about boosting the prestige of incumbent Republican congressmen and senators in tight races by showing how effective they were at bringing federal money to their home districts and states.
Robert Pear reports for the New York Times about Bush's trip to Grand Rapids yesterday: "A longtime champion of free-market principles, Mr. Bush looked uncomfortable as he defended the huge sudden expansion in the role of the federal government, which is buying up to $250 billion of bank stock in an effort to encourage new lending. The exercise of federal power, he suggested, was virtually forced on him by the crisis on Wall Street and the threat it posed to creditworthy consumers and businesses across the country.
"'I frankly don't want the government being involved with businesses, owning businesses -- it's not -- I don't think it's good for the country,' Mr. Bush told reporters gathered in a small parking lot behind the restaurant. 'It was necessary that the stock be purchased to help us through this financial crisis, but in the long run it's not good for the country.'
"The whole purpose, he said, is 'to restore confidence in our financial system' and thus to get the 'economy back on its feet again.'
"Before leaving Washington on Wednesday, Mr. Bush met with his cabinet at the White House to discuss the financial rescue plan.
"'It's very important for the American people to know that the program is designed to preserve free enterprise, not replace free enterprise,' Mr. Bush said. 'Decisions we took to enhance liquidity and make sure our financial instruments are strong is a temporary decision.'"
Stephen Gandel writes for Time: "It was on a sunny day in the White House Rose Garden that President George Bush announced his plan to enable as many as 700,000 American families to avoid foreclosure amid a growing mortgage crisis. 'I've made this a top priority to help our homeowners navigate these financial challenges,' he said, 'so that as many families as possible can stay in their homes.' That was in the summer of 2007.
"More than a year -- and a half a dozen rescue plans -- later, little progress has been made in turning the tide. The nation's foreclosure rate has risen in every month since the middle of 2007, according to FirstAmerican LoanPerformance, which tracks the mortgage market. As of August, nearly 3% of all homeloans were in foreclosure, and a further 6% were more than 60 days late on their mortgage payments. But the picture is far grimmer among sub-prime borrowers, those with less than perfect credit: As of July, nearly one third of those borrowers were more than 60 days late on their mortgages. All told, some 6.5 million families will lose their homes to foreclosure in the next few years, according to the projections of financial firm Credit Suisse.
"Even so, the troubled U.S. homeowner is not among the priorities of those in Washington dishing out rescue funds."
Qassim Abdul-Zahra writes for the Associated Press: "American troops could face trial before Iraqi courts for major crimes committed off base and when not on missions, under a draft security pact hammered out in months of tortuous negotiations, Iraqi officials familiar with the accord said Wednesday.
"The draft also calls for U.S. troops to leave Iraqi cities by the end of June and withdraw from the country entirely by Dec. 31, 2011, unless the Baghdad government asks some of them to stay for training or security support, the officials said.
"It would also give the Iraqis a greater role in U.S. military operations and full control of the Green Zone, the 3 1/2-square mile area of central Baghdad that includes the U.S. Embassy and major Iraqi government offices.
"One senior Iraqi official said Baghdad may demand even more concessions before the draft is submitted to parliament for a final decision. The two sides are working against a deadline of year's end when the U.N. mandate authorizing the U.S.-led mission expires."
Dan Eggen writes in The Washington Post: "Vice President Cheney, who has a long history of serious cardiovascular problems, was successfully treated with an electric shock yesterday after developing an abnormal rhythm in the upper chambers of his heart, according to the White House. . . .
"Cheney was previously treated with an electric shock for atrial fibrillation last November. Cheney has also suffered four heart attacks since age 37 and has undergone quadruple bypass surgery, two angioplasties, and an operation to implant a defibrillator device to monitor and regulate his heartbeat.
"The health problems prompted Cheney to cancel plans yesterday to host a $500-a-plate luncheon in Illinois for GOP candidate Marty Ozinga, who is vying against Democrat Debbie Halvorsen for the congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.)"
The big surprise to many readers may be that Cheney was actually on the campaign trail at all. But in a few races around the country, Republican candidates have found it worth risking the bad press to sneak Cheney in for a stealth fundraiser.
Josh Kraushaar writes in Politico that the decision to have Cheney headline an Ozinga fundraiser "was made out of financial necessity: his Democratic opponent, Debbie Halvorson, has been outspending him on television. And Ozinga, who has the means to self-finance the campaign, has apparently opted not to spend much of his own personal fortune."
Some candidates apparently have had second thoughts, however. As Kraushaar notes, Rep. Tom Feeney canceled a Naples, Florida event with Cheney on September 19, "ostensibly for possible votes on energy legislation in Washington."
A planned September 24 trip to New Mexico to raise money for Republican congressional candidate Ed Tinsley was also called off at the last minute, ostensibly on account of the turmoil in the financial markets.
There's at least one more fundraiser being planned, at least for now.
Rudi Keller writes for the Southeast Missourian: "Vice President Dick Cheney will visit Cape Girardeau later this month for a private fundraiser to benefit Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder.
"According to the invitation, individuals will pay $250 each to attend a reception Oct. 20 at the home of lawyer and conservative author David Limbaugh. Big spenders will be able to get their picture taken with Cheney for $1,250 for individuals and $2,500 for couples." (And yes, that's Rush Limbaugh's brother.)
You may recall that in August, when the State Department scrambled to put together Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's trip to Georgia's capital of Tbilisi, officials quickly realized that the plane they wanted was being used by Cheney for a fundraising trip to Colorado and California.
Indeed, on August 11, Cheney delivered remarks at a reception for Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in Littleton, Colo. Two days later, he headlined a reception for Rep. Ken Calvert at Richard Nixon's former home in San Clemente.
On October 6, Cheney flew to New Orleans to raise money for Rep. Steve Scalise in New Orleans.
Richard S. Tedlow and David Ruben write in a Boston Globe op-ed: "The next president will be elected on Nov. 4, but will not take office until Jan. 20. Normally, this lag time is not an issue. But with the financial system in meltdown, the 'real' economy threatening to follow, and a feckless, lame-duck administration unable to lead, this yawning interval is a problem. If history is any guide, a very big problem. . . .
"But there is a way out - if our political leaders are smart, courageous, and public-spirited enough to take it.
"Assume that Barack Obama wins the election, as polls show is increasingly likely. The following day, Vice President Cheney should be prevailed upon to resign. Using his powers to designate a successor under the 25th Amendment, President Bush should then appoint, and Congress should confirm, Obama as vice president (just as Richard Nixon appointed Gerald Ford vice president in 1973 when Spiro Agnew resigned). Bush himself should then resign, elevating Obama to the presidency - as Ford became president when Nixon resigned. Obama should then appoint Joe Biden as vice president."
Sandy Levinson blogs that Cheney's heart problem presents a unique opportunity to begin the process.
Joseph Morton writes for the Omaha World-Herald: "When President Bush signed a defense policy bill this week, he attached a statement saying he could ignore some of the legislation's new restrictions on U.S. spending in Iraq.
"Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., who co-authored those restrictions, criticized the move Wednesday.
"'It is unimaginable that the White House would not want to show leadership on this issue and instead chooses to resist shifting this burden from U.S. taxpayers to the government of Iraq,' Nelson said.
"A member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Nelson has said the new restrictions will end the Bush administration's 'blank check' approach to spending on Iraq. . . .
"Bush singled out several sections of the bill, including one that requires the administration to negotiate a cost-sharing agreement with the Iraqi government for U.S. military operations. The bill requires that the administration report to Congress on the status of those negotiations within 90 days. . . .
"Nelson noted that the senators who worked on the new restrictions did so in consultation with administration officials.
"'Either those officials didn't speak for the White House, or the White House didn't know what they were doing or they planned to ignore Congress' intent all along,' Nelson said. 'In the end, it will be taxpayers who suffer.'"
Beverley Lumpkin blogs for the Project on Government Oversight about the signing statement Bush attached to a measure giving inspectors general greater independence from White House control: "In a statement provided to POGO, Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN), the prime mover behind the bill, said: 'the President's signing statement shows his extreme reluctance to accept basic government reforms involving IGs. Despite repeated and overwhelming congressional approval, Bush had threatened to veto the entire IG bill and, after its passage, still seems bent on stymieing its objective of developing tougher taxpayer watchdogs, with teeth, inside each federal agency.'"
The New York Times editorial board blogs: "George W. Bush has only a few months left in the White House, and he seems destined to leave office with some of the lowest approval ratings in the history of the presidency. But he is not pulling back on most of the controversial policies that have marked his presidency -- like presidential signing statements. . . .
"Mr. Bush's signing statements undercut the roles the Constitution has set out for the three branches of government -- hardly the only time he has done that. Congress, the people's branch, gets to pass the laws -- with the president's signature or without it, if they override his veto.
"President Bush, however, has acted like he gets to play a role in drafting Congress's legislation, picking and choosing which parts he likes. It's a practice we hope will come to an end when a new president takes office next year."
Lara Jakes Jordan writes for the Associated Press: "The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee accused the White House on Wednesday of withholding documents showing it authorized the CIA to use waterboarding and other tough interrogation tactics on suspected terrorists.
"Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., was reacting to a report that two White House memos, in 2003 and 2004, gave the CIA written approval for using specific interrogation techniques on al-Qaida suspects. Those memos followed an earlier Justice Department opinion clearing the way for harsh interrogations so long as the methods did not cause intense pain similar to causing death or organ failure. . . .
"'If White House documents exist that set the policy for the use of coercive techniques such as waterboarding, those documents have been kept from the committee,' Rockefeller said in a statement. 'That is unacceptable, and represents the latest example of the Bush administration withholding critical information from Congress and the American people in an attempt to limit our oversight of sensitive intelligence collection activities.
"'As chairman, I will not allow the Bush administration's stonewalling to prevent a full accounting of the facts,' said Rockefeller, whose committee is already investigating whether the CIA's interrogation program was legal."
Elizabeth Jensen writes in the New York Times: "'Torturing Democracy,' a documentary examining the Bush administration's detention and interrogation policies, will be shown on WNET in New York on Thursday and on a grab bag of other public television stations nationwide in coming weeks. But some of the country's viewers will have to watch online if they want to see the program anytime soon because PBS decided that no national airdate was available until Jan. 21, a day after a new presidential administration takes office.
"The film's producer and writer, Sherry Jones, rejected that offer and, with the help of Bill Moyers, a PBS mainstay, has been appealing to stations individually to find time on their schedules before 2009. Stations serving about 85 percent of the nation's viewers have agreed to carry the program on some date. But a major gap is Washington. Mary Stewart, a spokeswoman for that city's largest public station, WETA, said, 'It's a show we are looking at, but we haven't scheduled it yet.'..
"'Torturing Democracy' can be seen at torturingdemocracy.org. It explores the evolution of United States policy and internal administration battles over the use of coercive interrogation techniques on military detainees, including suspected terrorists. Interview subjects include former government and military officials and former detainees; several current administration officials declined to participate."
Scott Horton blogs for Harpers: "The last hundred days of any presidency are frequently known as 'legacy time.' The die may be cast, but the occupant of the White House begins making plans to leave and wonders inevitably about how he will be seen by posterity. So what image will dominate the Bush presidency? The Iraq War? The management of Hurricane Katrina? The meltdown of the financial markets? I believe one issue is likely to shape the historical perception of the Bush 43 presidency: torture."
Joe Neumaier writes in the New York Daily News: "Finding substance in George W. Bush where there seemed to be only thin air, and confident that what's past is prologue, Oliver Stone's 'W.' is not the hatchet job some may have expected (or hoped for). It is instead a measured and thoughtful meditation on a leader who, this terrific movie believes, inadvertently made the world as roiling as his soul."
Stone tells Bloomberg's Rick Warner: "This is a story that Preston Sturges could only invent -- a guy who was a complete failure at 40 becomes president at 54. . . . And look what happens . . . the world changes forever."
Jill Serjeant interviews Stone for Reuters:
Serjeant: "Why is it important to release 'W.' so near to the 2008 U.S. presidential elections when President George W. Bush is not running for office again?"
Stone: "We are dealing with the phenomenon of Bush and whoever wins the election, his impact is going to be in the shadow of this huge presence that existed for eight years and which changed the world. I think a lot of people should come because it's good for them, before the election, to think about who they elected in the last eight years, and about where we are as a country right now."
Serjeant: "Why didn't you make this movie four years ago, when President Bush was running for reelection?"
Stone: "We did not have the information. The 2000-2003 period was a veiled Orwellian masterpiece, where they closed off all documents and fired anyone in the inner circle who talked to the press. This guy was infallible for three years. It was only in about 2004-2005 that this was starting to come out. Without all the investigative reporters, where would we be?"
Via U.S. News, Jay Leno: "Vice President Dick Cheney was treated, today, for an irregular heartbeat. His doctors aren't sure what caused it. They figured it was either stress or the sudden drop in oil prices. . . . Well, doctors now say drinking alcohol may shrink your brain. . . . Their proof -- the last eight years of the White House."
Tom Toles on Bush's bankrupt reputation, Jeff Danziger on Bush's fan, Tony Auth on Bush's endorsement, Bruce Plante on cause and effect, and Paul Szep on a real horror movie.
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The New York Times
October 15, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
An Oregon Republican Reaches for Coattails -- Obama's
BYLINE: By WILLIAM YARDLEY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 1202 words
DATELINE: WEST LINN, Ore.
John Lee, the vice chairman of the Republican Party here in Clackamas County, winced more than once Thursday night while watching Senator Gordon H. Smith debate his Democratic challenger, Jeff Merkley.
While Mr. Lee is no fan of Mr. Merkley, it was Mr. Smith, a Republican from rural eastern Oregon, who sometimes made his stomach turn. First there were Mr. Smith's kind words for Senator Barack Obama, then for another Democrat, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. What about Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee? One quick compliment, yes, but Mr. Smith clearly was not reaching for coattails.
''It upsets me,'' Mr. Lee said after watching the debate with a small group of local Republican leaders in a coffee shop here.
At a time when many Republicans are distancing themselves from their party, Mr. Smith is a study in the extreme. He is not just saying nice things about Democrats; he has run television commercials suggesting that he, Mr. Obama and Senators John Kerry and Edward M. Kennedy, both of Massachusetts, are of like minds on a variety of issues, including alternative energy and hate crimes.
''Everybody's an independent in an election year, but he's not merely emphasizing his independence,'' Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst who tracks Congressional races, said of Mr. Smith. ''He's trying to link himself with Obama in front of voters.''
Mr. Smith, seeking his third term, has emphasized his sharp criticism of the Iraq war in recent years, his support for environmental issues, like increasing mileage standards for cars, and his efforts to pass measures extending hate crimes protection to gay men and lesbians. He frequently notes that he is rated one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate by nonpartisan Congressional publications.
But even as Mr. Smith compliments Democrats and criticizes the Bush administration, momentum and math seem to be working against him. He is the only Republican senator representing a West Coast state outside of Alaska, and although he cruised to re-election in 2002, some local polls show him in a dead heat with Mr. Merkley, the low-profile speaker of the Oregon House. Mr. Merkley is benefiting from a growing shift in the state to the Democratic Party, as well as voters' deep distaste for President Bush and the Iraq war and their passion for Mr. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee.
''The momentum with Merkley is because he's got a 'D' by his name,'' said Tim Hibbitts, a longtime pollster in Oregon. ''He's not winning because of his personality. He's winning because in this particular state in this particular year, the Republican brand has gone to hell.''
At the end of last year, Oregon had about 756,000 registered Democrats and 686,000 Republicans. There are now about 894,000 Democrats and 677,000 Republicans, with much of the increase in Democrats driven by voters wanting to support Mr. Obama in the presidential primary in May.
In 2002, Mr. Smith won every county in Oregon except one, Multnomah, which includes liberal Portland and its close suburbs. This year, with Democratic registration growing in Multnomah, political experts say Mr. Smith must win by even bigger margins in suburban and rural counties than he did six years ago.
Clackamas is one of those counties, but it is also one of several where voter registration has shifted in favor of the Democrats in the last year. Last December, the county had about 3,000 more Republicans than Democrats; it now has about 11,000 more Democrats than Republicans. The number of unaffiliated voters has largely remained flat.
''I was going door to door the other day and someone asked, 'Why don't you put ''Republican'' on these fliers?' '' said Bill Kennemer, a longtime Clackamas County commissioner who is running for the State House as a Republican. ''I said, 'Because I don't want to lose.' ''
Mr. Smith has portrayed Mr. Merkley in television commercials as concerned only about the interests of Portland, an appeal to resentments among rural Oregonians that liberals and environmentalists in the city have shackled the state with excessive government, including restrictions on timber harvesting and land-use planning.
''What Pendleton wheat farmers need is Portland longshoremen,'' Mr. Smith said in the debate Thursday. ''I bridge that gap. Jeff Merkley deepens it.''
Mr. Merkley said in an interview that ''the great irony here is that Smith calls himself bipartisan'' but that ''he wants to drive a wedge between rural and urban Oregon.''
Mr. Merkley, a former director of Habitat for Humanity in Portland, receives low marks from agricultural and business groups, and high ones from unions and environmentalists. He has promised to visit every county in the state every year as senator. He frequently mentions that his father worked in a lumber mill in the small Oregon town where he grew up. In campaign advertisements, he wears thick flannel shirts.
With Mr. Merkley as House speaker, the Legislature passed some of the nation's strongest incentives for creating alternative energy, and it established Oregon's first ''rainy day'' savings reserve. The state has not suffered from the budget deficits affecting its coastal neighbors, Washington and California.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent heavily on the race, and a consultant to Mr. Smith's campaign said the Republicans had been outspent on television advertising by about $13 million to $7 million. The Democrats accuse Mr. Smith of supporting the Iraq war in most of his votes and of moderating his positions on environmental issues, like whether to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, only when an election nears.
The bitterness of the campaign was a subject of the debate on Thursday and in another on Monday.
In Thursday's debate, one voter e-mailed a question asking each candidate to say three nice things about his opponent's record. Mr. Merkley praised the senator's work on mental health issues and other areas, while Mr. Smith said nice things only about Mr. Merkley's family.
''His voting record,'' Mr. Smith said, ''that's a little harder to do.''
Although Mr. Smith has praised Democrats, few prominent ones have endorsed him. Mr. Obama has endorsed Mr. Merkley, as has Oregon's other senator, Ron Wyden, a Democrat.
Mr. Smith's overtures to Democrats risk alienating conservative voters. Mr. Lee, the Republican leader in Clackamas County, said that Mr. Smith had ''ticked off a lot of Republicans'' and that he would vote for him only because he was the ''lesser of two evils.'' Mr. Hibbitts, the pollster, said surveys showed ''softness'' in the Republican support for Mr. Smith.
Adding another wrinkle, a third-party candidate, David Brownlow of the conservative Constitution Party, has registered in the high single digits in some recent polls. Political experts say that if the race is close and Mr. Brownlow has an impact, he is likely to hurt Mr. Smith the most.
''They're talking about health care and education and cutting taxes like this is just any other year,'' Mr. Brownlow said. ''Isn't anybody reading the paper? There's a financial meltdown out there. It's a whole new game.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 15, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Senator Gordon H. Smith, left, with his Democratic opponent, Jeff Merkley, on Monday at a campaign debate in Medford, Ore. Polls show a close contest.(PHOTOGRAPH BY JIM CRAVEN/MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE)
A television advertisement for Senator Smith, a Republican, promotes his ties to Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee for president. Over a picture of Mr. Obama's letterhead, the announcer talks about how in 2006 Mr. Smith co-sponsored an Obama bill that would raise fuelefficiency standards.
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The Washington Post
October 15, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
The Trail
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 697 words
THE AYERS CONTROVERSY
Obama Responds With New Ads
Barack Obama is pushing back anew against the "palling around with terrorists" charge -- running two television advertisements and a radio spot in states where the Republican Party has ads noting his association with 1960s radical Bill Ayers.
The Obama ads directly take on charges that he launched his political career in Ayers's living room, among others. One of Obama's TV ads shows an exterior shot of a Ramada Inn, and a narrator, with a weary-sounding tsk-tsk, says Obama started his "first campaign here, not in anyone's living room."
The controversy over Ayers appears to have had little negative impact on Obama. In a just-released New York Times-CBS News poll, nearly two-thirds of respondents said they had already heard "a lot" or "some" about Obama's association with Ayers. Nine percent volunteered that they were bothered by that connection. A majority, 56 percent, said there was nothing about Obama's background or past associations that concerned them.
The poll showed Obama up 14 points over John McCain overall.
The subject of Ayers is expected to arise in tonight's debate. McCain, in fact, said Obama had "probably ensured" that it will come up after Obama accused him of being too afraid to say it to his face in their two earlier encounters.
"It's not that I give a damn about some old washed-up terrorist and his terrorist wife," McCain told a radio interviewer.
"What I care about, and what the American people care about, is whether [Obama] is being truthful with the American people, whether it be on raising taxes or whether it be his commitment to take public financing or whether it be his association with Ayers, who he said was a guy in the neighborhood when the fact is he launched his political career in Bill Ayers's living room," McCain said.
-- Anne E. Kornblut
GROUP UNDER SCRUTINY
Obama Addresses His Past ACORN Link
TOLEDO -- Barack Obama distanced himself from the voter registration group ACORN on Tuesday while also playing down the allegations of fraud that have embroiled the organization.
ACORN offices are under scrutiny in numerous states for allegedly having registered thousands of people under fake names.
Taking a break from debate preparations, Obama told reporters during a brief news conference this afternoon, that his "relationship to ACORN is pretty straightforward. It's probably 13 years ago when I was still practicing law, I represented ACORN, and my partner in that representation was the U.S. Justice Department in having Illinois implement what was called the 'motor voter' law, to make sure that people could go to DMVs and driver's license facilities to get registered. It wasn't being implemented. That was my relationship and is my relationship to ACORN."
He said he had further interactions with the group through its Chicago office, in his capacity as a local elected official. Obama added, "We've got the best voter registration and turnout and volunteer operation in politics right now, and we don't need ACORN's help."
-- Shailagh Murray
AD BUYS
AFL-CIO Spending Big In Support of Obama
The AFL-CIO announced a new wave of mail Tuesday that is part of a $53.4 million voter-mobilization effort aimed at gun owners, veterans and retirees in key states.
"The mail pieces will be followed by phone calls and door visits by union volunteers to this group to reinforce the central message: 'I want to protect two things: my job and my gun. That's why I'm supporting Barack Obama,' " Steve Smith of the AFL-CIO said in a statement.
The Service Employees International Union also reported this week $356,000 in phone banking and mailers, along with a hefty run of TV ads focused on health-care issues and paid for by the union's political action committee. Environmental groups also sponsored mailers attacking John McCain; the League of Conservation Voters reported spending $280,000 for a "media buy" opposing McCain.
The National Rifle Association reported small expenditures for literature opposing Obama. And a group called the National Republican Trust PAC reported spending $75,000 in the past 24 hours on e-mails and online banner ads opposing Obama.
-- Matthew Mosk
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October 15, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
With Huge Money Advantage, Obama Ramps Up Ads
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk; Washington Post Staff Writer
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Sen. John McCain stepped into a ballroom at the Grand Hyatt in New York last night for what was likely to be his last fundraiser of the 2008 presidential campaign.
But while the event, which was expected to net $8 million to $10 million for the Republican National Committee, will provide a much-needed infusion for the GOP nominee, it will do little to whittle down the massive financial advantage that Sen. Barack Obama is using to dominate the electoral landscape.
Exactly how much money the Democrat has raised will not be clear until next week, when the two campaigns are required to report their September fundraising totals to the Federal Election Commission, although some strategists are openly speculating that he could approach $100 million for the month. That would shatter a record Obama set in August, when he brought in $67 million.
As the first presidential candidate to run a general-election campaign entirely with private donations, Obama is building a significant fundraising advantage and is now using that imbalance to swamp McCain on the airwaves and in building turnout operations coast to coast.
Voters in large swaths of Florida will see Obama television commercials dozens of times before catching sight of a McCain ad. A drive across Virginia will wend past 51 Obama field offices, compared with 19 for McCain. "It's given them resources to compete in multiple battlegrounds in all dimensions -- on the ground, through the mail, with media, everything," Chris Kofinis, a Democratic political strategist, said of Obama's fundraising success. "I think people will look back and say this was one of the most pivotal decisions in his campaign."
Since accepting $84 million in public funds, McCain has been barred from raising money for his own campaign. He has sought to keep pace with Obama's effort by holding RNC fundraisers like last night's event in New York. The party committee raised $66 million in September and has begun to expand its presence on television with ads featuring blistering attacks on Obama.
At the same time, the RNC is leading an effort to challenge the legality of millions of dollars in "un-itemized" donations that Obama has collected. Under FEC rules, his campaign does not have to document the names of donors who give less than $200.
The RNC is keeping a growing list of phony donors and unexplained credit card charges that it believes point to more than a simple inability by the Obama team to keep track of all the money flowing in. Steve and Rachel Larman, a Missouri couple who vote Republican, told local reporters that they found a $2,300 charge for a donation to the Obama campaign on their credit card statement that they could not explain. Patricia Phillips, a Virginia Republican, had a similar experience, she said, when she opened her MasterCard statement last month to discover a $5 charge from the Obama campaign. "I thought, 'Oh, my! This is not from me,' " she said.
Other donations have arrived under such obviously bogus names as Edrty Eddty and Es Esh.
Experts called it a common problem on an uncommon scale -- while there have always been donors who, for a host of reasons, tried to circumvent federal election rules and give campaign contributions without providing their real names, they are more frequent with Obama because of the volume of donations his campaign is processing.
"I'm sure they have a system in place to screen out improper donations," said Scott Thomas, a former FEC chairman. "Their problem is they have such a massive donor base and so many of these coming in that it's hard to keep up."
Obama campaign aides said they have followed a policy of sending immediate refunds to people who contact the campaign to say that they have been charged for a contribution they did not make. "While no organization is protected from Internet fraud, we have taken every available step to root out improper contributions, updating our systems when necessary," said Ben LaBolt, a campaign spokesman.
So far, the complaints have not prompted FEC action. And Obama's controversial decision to forgo public funding and instead raise money on his own is paying huge dividends.
The most noticeable evidence of his spending advantage has been on the airwaves, where, in some states, Obama been running seven or eight times as many commercials as McCain. Evan Tracey, an analyst with the Campaign Media Analysis Group, called the disparity stunning.
"McCain's in a shouting match with a guy holding a bullhorn," Tracey said.
Obama booked nearly $4 million in ads in Virginia last week, compared with $487,149 spent there by McCain. He held a similar spending edge in almost every battleground state, Tracey said, enabling him to respond to negative ads by McCain while keeping a regular cycle of positive ads running as well.
Obama has so much money available that he is continuing to push into advertising venues rarely, if ever, visited by political candidates. He has plans for a prime-time infomercial -- the first of its type since Ross Perot used the format 16 years ago. And Advertising Age reported yesterday that an Obama "in-game advertisement" appeared in the EA video game Burnout Paradise. The racing game features a Barack Obama billboard announcing that early voting has begun and references VoteForChange.com, a site paid for by the Obama campaign.
Republican political strategists have acknowledged the Obama advantage, but they argue that if a financial edge is all it takes to win an election, McCain would not be the nominee. (He was massively outspent by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani during the primaries.)
The biggest difficulty for McCain, said Republican political consultant Kevin Madden, is that he has been forced to play defense in states -- such as North Carolina and Indiana -- where he should not be spending money at all at this point.
"The campaign with the money can pin the other campaign down in places where they don't want to be," Madden said.
One result of Obama's decision to opt out of the public financing system is that his campaign accounts will not automatically be subject to an audit after the election, as is standard with campaigns financed from the U.S. Treasury.
Last week, RNC lawyers filed an FEC complaint that they hope will prompt an investigation and audit. The complaint said the RNC believes that the Obama campaign "has accepted prohibited foreign national contributions and knowingly done so through its failure to reasonably investigate contributions originating abroad."
Obama aides dispute this, saying they have bent over backward trying to root out illegal contributions. But that task, they said, has been made difficult by the sheer volume of contributions, many in increments of $5 and $10.
The campaign has taken a number of steps to intercept illegal contributions, whether they are from people using fake names or from donors who are not U.S. citizens, Obama aides said. The campaign has initiated procedures to flag questionable contributions and follow up with donors to determine whether those contributions are lawful or should be refunded.
"Every campaign faces the challenge of screening and reviewing its contributions," LaBolt said. "And we have been aggressive about taking every available step to make sure our contributions are appropriate, updating our systems when necessary."
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October 15, 2008 Wednesday 10:30 PM EST
Analysis: Final Presidential Debate
BYLINE: Robert G. Kaiser, Washington Post Associate Editor, washingtonpost.com
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HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 10:30 p.m. ET to critique the performances of Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama in their final presidential debate.
Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 10:30 p.m. ET to critique the performances of Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama in their final presidential debate.
The transcript follows.
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Robert G. Kaiser: Hello everyone. Hard to believe this year's debates are over already! I look forward to hearing from you, and will post as many comments and questions as I can over the next hour or so. Please feel free to provide your own commentary if you'd like. And I will try to answer your questions, as always.
I'm never confident that my personal reactions are significant at times like this. I am hardly a typical viewer. I don't know how this played with voters. But I do think it's a safe bet that this debate did not change many minds. Barack Obama came into the debate clearly ahead, the polls tell us, and I don't think that will be changed by what we saw over the last 90 minutes.
I did find this the most real of the debates. We got some real human interaction at that table. And Bob Schieffer wins my prize for best moderator. He tried the hardest to keep the debaters on topic, and to evoke some new responses
The split screen--used, it appears, on CBS, ABC, CNN and C-SPAN--gave viewers a lot of nervous grins and raised eyebrows from McCain, and a lot of Obama grins too. How did that play? I'd love to hear opinions. Once again, I had the sense that Obama looked a lot more comfortable debating than McCain did.
Now over to you.
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Durham, N.C.: This feels like the first debate where the moderator has been able to move the candidates to engage beyond talking points. Do you agree? Do you think it was Schieffer's moderation, the format, McCain throwing caution to the wind in face of bad polls, or some other factor?
Robert G. Kaiser: Shieffer deserves some of the credit, the table does too. And maybe we should credit the candidates as well. It was the best of the three debates, I thought.
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DeKalb, Ill.: I think the question about negative campaigning initiated an unnecessary negative response. As a college student who has the possibility to be largely affected by the next president, it seemed pointless to ask such a question, opening the door for the candidates to continue to make attacks on each other. While I realize that most people already have made their decision, the negative personal attacks, I felt, did not deserve the amount of attention they received in this final debate, so close to the election with so many more national problems to discuss.
Robert G. Kaiser: Good point. But Schieffer tried to do something original and potentially significant by asking them to repeat at the table, to each other, the charges they have made in commercials. McCain partially took him up on that with his remarks on Bill Ayres, which I suspect won him zero votes. Obama took a pass, didn't he?
This is not the place for a dissertation on negative campaigning, but it has a 30-year history now and is ingrained in our politics.
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London: It's 3:30 a.m. here in England, but that debate was well worth staying up for! It was definitely the most lively and interesting of all the others, and I thought Schieffer did the best job in asking tough, pointed questions and making sure the candidates didn't get away with pat responses. As for the "verdict," is it just me, or did Obama crush McCain? I thought the other debates were fairly close, but Obama seemed vastly more in-touch, youthful and intelligent than his opponent. In particular, he really seemed to take the high road when it came to the discussion of negative campaigning.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Glad we agree about this being the most interesting one. Did Obama crush McCain? I just cannot say.
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New York: I thought this was McCain's best performance. That said, I still found him angry, sarcastic and the more negative of the two. I agree that Bob Scheiffer was the best of the moderators. On taxes and health care, there have been so many claims and counterclaims, that I suspect it is hard for most of us to know what is correct and what is not. Question: Are the concluding remarks read from a teleprompter?
washingtonpost.com: The Fact-Checker blog addressed several of the tax claims made during the debate.
Robert G. Kaiser: Producer Chris Hopkins here provides a link to the Fact-Checker, who is having a good night in my opinion (he always has a good night!).
No teleprompters allowed. They had to memorize.
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Dallas: Finally, McCain took the offense. Do you believe tonight's debate was enough to shift the polls a little bit in favor of McCain? Thanks!
Robert G. Kaiser: Maybe a bit, but I doubt very much. But I could be wrong!
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Falls Church, Va.: This way by far the best debate! The candidates talked about important issues, they had enough time to discuss each question and the responded to each other. The moderator was fair. What do you think the biggest takeaway is from this debate? The most memorable point?
Robert G. Kaiser: A consensus is emerging...
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Washington: Considering that McCain failed to deliver the much needed "knockout blow" in this debate, will the media continue to be surprised as Obama pulls away in the polls?
Robert G. Kaiser: Hey, I can't speak for "the media." I can point out how wildly wrong many of the pundits and talking heads have been during this long campaign, way back to the inevitability of McCain's defeat in the Republican primaries and Hillary Clinton's victory. It's been a bad year for them.
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Chantilly, Va.: This finally seemed like more of a debate than a dual press conference, and I was glad I to hear the candidates' responses to some of each other's most common attack ads. On another note, I was really struck by some of McCain's more extreme facial expressions. They were kind of funny, charming, and scary at the same time.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Re: Abortion: Overall, I thought Schieffer did a tremendous job, but I think we need to move beyond the "litmus test" question on the abortion issue. If you think a Democrat is going to nominate someone who isn't pro-choice, you're crazy. If you think a Republican is going to nominate someone who isn't pro-life, you're crazy. But what are reasonable restrictions? What about waiting periods and parental consent? What about the morning after pill? What about going beyond abstinence-only education in high schools?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think McCain did admit that no one who supported Roe v. Wade would be appointed to the Court by him, didn't he? And Obama did talk about restrictions, no?
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San Francisco: Has Sen. Obama spent the most on negative ad campaigns ever?
Robert G. Kaiser: I have no idea, but I think what McCain was basing this on was the fact that Obama is spending more on all forms of advertising than any candidate ever has (as every television viewer in America must realize by now) because he rejected public financing and raised so much money. In fact most Obama commercials are not negative, but the portion that is has cost a lot of money. Since "negative" is a subjective judgment, I doubt this argument can be resolved.
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Baltimore: Schieffer mismanaged this big time. He allowed for follow-ups, so I give him credit for that, but he spent 15 minutes on attacks, and it seemed like very few questions were asked overall, given the amount of time.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this, with which, I've already made clear, I disagree, but so what?
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Blacksburg, Va.: My husband and I had very different reactions to the debates, ones that matched our gender's Instapolling on CNN. I thought Obama came off as presidential, strong and looking for common ground, and McCain came off looking like a bully. I cringed when McCain would interrupt with a harsh attack. My husband thought that McCain did very well, certainly better than any of his previous debates. Do you think this debate will have more of an effect than others?
Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting, thanks. Of course the way you describe it, you could both be right!
As I've said, I think this debate doesn't change the game.
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Arlington, Mass.: Regarding the negativity question, I thought that Obama came across as being unable to stand up to McCain, as opposed to just restraining himself from responding strongly.
Robert G. Kaiser: I wonder who you are supporting. Hah.
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Arlington, Va.: McCain was big on the attack. Obama retaliated a bit, but mainly just sat back. McCain seemed a bit snide and sniping at times. How do you see this being received?
Robert G. Kaiser: The new CBS-NY Times poll suggests that McCain has paid a significant price for his negativity thus far, and I don't think what we heard tonight helped him a lot, as noted already.
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Wellington, New Zealand: Will you have any polling data on the debates for us tonight?
Robert G. Kaiser: The Stanley Greenberg polling organization again has a bunch of "undecided" voters whose reaction will be reported in a conference call at 10:55. I'll listen and give you a report.
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Palo Alto, Calif.: Definitely the best debate of the three. I thought Senator McCain performed far better than in previous debates, but still the basic lack of substance in his approach to topics such as health care, the environment and education became steadily more clear with each give and take between him and Sen. Obama. I felt that Senator Obama gave a weaker performance than the past three but still was the superior of the two. Do you think the success of this debate will prompt more "roundtable discussions" in presidential debates in the future? The format seems far superior to both the traditional debate and the town hall.
Robert G. Kaiser: I wouldn't be surprised if this format caught on in the future. The Debate Commission has favored it in the past. But the campaigns get to decide, alas.
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New York: Not a bad night for Scheiffer, but really, is calling someone "erratic" is the same as accusing him of "palling around with terrorists"? This is media equivalence at its most foolish.
Robert G. Kaiser: Agreed.
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Woodstock, N.Y.: I thought that the moderator wanted to start a thing about Palin, but Obama didn't bite into it? Do you think it was a smart move or a lost opportunity?
Robert G. Kaiser: Probably smart. Sarah Palin has, frankly, proven to be a huge drag on the Republican ticket, all the polling confirms this. McCain's defense of her followed by his own statement reminding everyone how much experience Joe Biden has in foreign policy was quietly powerful I thought. I suspect the Obama camp decided in advance that they didn't have to do anything about Palin; Tina Fey and Katy Couric did it all for them.
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Berryville, Va.: I am an Obama supporter, but am disappointed, again, that he failed to use his legal expertise to fully address issues respecting the reversal of Roe v Wade. It was his best effort thus far, but he has been in the best position of any recent Democrat to explain the import of a constitutionally protected right, and the significance of stare decisis, and he did not give it his best effort. And it is unfortunate that the issue continues to be presented as one of "morality" respecting the rights of the "unborn," as though the rights of a living adult citizen are insignificant by comparison.
Democratic candidates will continue to lose votes unnecessarily so long as they appear to be defending a morally weak position respecting Roe, and it's just a shame that Barack did not better defend the Constitutional underpinnings of the decision for the protection of basic individual rights. His political response was weak. A legal response would have been strong. Also, Bob Schieffer has improved with age and experience. He's the man.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Denver: I had to respond to this. You wrote that "this is not the place for a dissertation on negative campaigning, but it has a 30-year history now and is ingrained in our politics." John Adams distributed pamphlets saying that if Thomas Jefferson was elected president, prostitutes would start operating out of churches. Andrew Jackson was accused of murdering six people in cold blood in the Coffin Handbill. Negative campaigning is much older than 30 years.
Robert G. Kaiser: See, I told you I shouldn't get into it! Yes, I know this history and a lot more besides. But there were no 30-second attack ads then, they started in a significant way in 1978, and they aren't the same as 19th Century negative campaigning in my view.
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Spokane, Wash.: I support Obama, but I think McCain did very well at this debate -- I might even say better than Obama. He definitely appeared to be in better form than at the town hall "debate" (or was it debacle?) He was much more specific in his answers than before. Obama still reiterated what we've heard time and again (and not much more specific, either). However, McCain hasn't seemed to have improved on the issue of health care. I was very pleased with the honesty and depth of the discussion tonight.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Oakton, Va.: McCain repeatedly mentioned Obama's refusal to take part in a number of additional town meeting-style get togethers. Do you know why this is? What effect do you think McCain's again mentioning this will have on the American people? Does this matter to them? Would more meetings have benefited one of the candidates more than the other?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. The Obama camp has never really explained its position on this, but my hunch is they had a game plan in place when McCain began to revive the town-hall idea, and they didn't want to abandon it. Part of the game plan was to take advantage of what has turned out to be a huge money advantage, which might have been largely neutralized by a long series of townhalls that networks would have covered, perhaps, for free. But this is something we need to learn more about.
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Ames, Iowa: No one sighed. No one checked his watch. (I do wonder whatever happened the lockbox that was so popular in 2000?) When Obama passed up on a clear chance to comment unfavorably on Palin's qualifications, I thought it was a tad churlish for McCain to then snipe at Biden (who has taken some pains to note that he and McCain have worked together in the past).
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Churlish and probably a little dumb, given that what McCain said about Biden must have reminded a lot of people that no one could have disagreements with Palin's positions (what positions?) on national security issues.
Congress and the Bush administration cleaned out the lockbox early in the first Bush term, when the cut taxes and returned us into the red.
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Arlington, Mass.: "Arlington, Mass.: Regarding the negativity question, I thought that Obama came across as being unable to stand up to McCain, as opposed to just restraining himself from responding strongly. Robert G. Kaiser: I wonder who you are supporting. Hah."
In fact, I'm an Obama supporter. What I'm remembering is the debate between Dukakis and Bush Sr.m where the former came off as too cool and detached when asked about how he would feel if his wife were raped.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. In that case, I just disagree with you. I knew Michael Dukakis, and Barack Obama is no Michael Dukakis.
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New York: This was definitely the most interesting debate so far. I knew that McCain would be trying to be aggressive in this one because of the polls -- he needed a big break in order to have a hint of a chance at this election. I don't think he got it. I thought Obama was more specific on the economy, giving strong arguments for helping the middle class and students, while it seemed that McCain was sticking to his talking points.
One question: People are saying Obama was "off," but it didn't seem that way to me at all -- I thought he was totally on game tonight. Any thoughts on this point? By the way, my favorite part was when Obama said "If you'll let me, I'd like to talk to Joe, too."
Robert G. Kaiser: I think "off" is one of those judgments that reside in the eyes of the beholder. I thought Obama was just a little edgy tonight, probably because he knew all he had to fear was making a goof.
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Richmond, Va.: Is there any sense of whether this debate would be watched as much as, more than, or less than the other two? I can't tell if the public is debated-out by now or still wanted to hear more. Do you know one way or the other?
Robert G. Kaiser: Won't know until tomorrow. I bet it was a big audience.
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Joe the Plumber: I think Obama wisely chose to avoid multiple town hall meetings -- I think most of us would have tuned out by now, and that the freshness and novelty of Obama would have been diminished in that kind of constant discussion. Frankly, McCain would not have been well-served by additional town hall meetings and should thank his lucky stars they never happened.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Joe the Plumber: www.joetheplumber.com is a guy in Amarillo, Texas. Really! He's the real winner tonight!
Robert G. Kaiser: You betcha!
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Chicago: Did either candidate rise to todays extraordinary times and provide any big answers to the economic crisis that is roaring down our streets? I am afraid not. This is the one pressing, dramatic and dangerous issue that really could provide -- and I would argue where we desperately need -- a game-changer.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Asuncion, Paraguay: Hi Bob. I thought for the first 25 minutes McCain really had Obama on the defensive. Obama's campaign said they knew McCain would come out aggressively, but Obama acted shocked and off-balance. It's tough to understand how he came in so unprepared for what was so clearly going to be a barn-burner. I never thought he really recovered, though he finished well. What do you think?
Robert G. Kaiser: I didn't see that, sorry.
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First poll results: CBS news poll of undecideds found 53 percent thought Obama won, while 22 percent thought McCain did. ... I believe this is the largest difference of all debates.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. In a couple of minutes I'll report on Stan Greenberg's focus group of McCain-leaning undecideds in Denver, which came to a similar conclusion.
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Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a report from the Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner focus group of undecided voters in Denver, all of whom said they were leaning toward McCain before the debate began:
The results of this one "look more decisive than the first two," Stan Greenberg just reported. Both of those groups, after the first two debates, thought Obama won cleanly. This one came to the same conclusion more decisively.
"If Sen. McCain was looking for a break in this race, there is absolutely nothing in this reaction that would do that." McCain was seen much less favorably after the debate than before it. And Obama got "an astonishing result," Greenberg says -- a dramatic increase in his "favorability" as a result of the debate.
"The big gains that Obama made were on things that matter." Many more thought Obama "shares my values." He got a very positive response on education and health care.
Who is a strong leader? McCain had a big advantage before the debate began, and a much smaller one afterwards.
Another interesting one: the group was 50-50 on who would best handle the financial crisis before the debate, and overshelmingly for Obama on that issue afterward.
So these voters -- not a scientific poll, but an interesting piece of anecdotal evidence -- suggests that McCain made no headway tonight, while Obama made a lot of progress.
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Potomac, Md.: Do you think many people will regard Obama's cool(er) responses to McCain's accusations as wimpy? I understand it would not be politically correct to lay into Palin but...
Robert G. Kaiser: I do not. Obama's cool seems to be going down very well, judging by the polls.
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Vienna, Va.: I thought Obama was much stronger, clearer on substance, but I think he missed an opportunity to invoke a grace note on the John Lewis question. It would have been nice had Obama said that John McCain is a good, patriotic man, but they disagree on many issues. Aside from all else, perhaps McCain would have reciprocated and then we could have gotten back to issues sooner.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Re: Abortion: Did I really hear McCain say that the health of the mother shouldn't be considered in abortion? That seems a bit out of the mainstream, doesn't it?
Robert G. Kaiser: Well, he said that invoking the health of the mother was a ploy increasingly used by the "pro abortion" forces. I have a hunch that did not play well with women who aren't fervidly pro-life.
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Debate Moderators: All three presidential debates have been moderated older, white men. I believe the average age of a debate moderator is 71. I think this is an advantage to Obama. Visually the appearance is two "old guys" and one more youthful, more energetic guy. This also made me think about the newcasters themselves: Correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe a single national nightly news show on cable, broadcast or public television is lead by an African American man. Not one. I know there are commentators and interviewees and lots of local news anchors that are African American men, but not nationally.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for an intriguing -- and accurate -- comment.
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Helena, Mont.: I still don't understand why McCain emphasizes his disagreement with the Republican Party and then complains that Obama doesn't have disagreements with the Democratic Party. It seems to me that if you don't agree with your party, you are free to just up and leave. To run with an "R" after your name and then try to get votes based on how you really aren't a Republican is not very reassuring.
Robert G. Kaiser: Hey, he's a maverick.
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Philadelphia: Robert, I know that toward the end of campaigns things can get very heated, but do you think McCain and Obama even respect each other at this point? Maybe McCain is a little more obvious with his body language during the debate, but it feels like both men really hate each other.
Robert G. Kaiser: "Hate" might be a little strong. I've had the impression from the outset that McCain holds Obama in what you might call minimal high regard. I think Obama's disdain for his opponent has been growing steadily.
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Ammon, Idaho: I watched "Frontline" last night and came away feeling comfortable about the character and experience of both candidates. I felt no need to watch tonight's debate. I am pleased to hear that it was more substantive than I expected. I would recommend your viewers check out the PBS program for more insight. It beats watching ads or watching political posturing.
washingtonpost.com: PBS Frontline: 'The Choice 2008'
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for your comment. I missed the PBS documentary myself. But I bet you could learn even more from reading detailed stories in the best newspapers (This is an old prejudice of mine, of course). Here's a link to the PBS, and then a link to a terrific story about McCain that ran in The Washington Post last weekend.
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washingtonpost.com: Seeing White House From a Cell in Hanoi (Post, Oct. 13)
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New Orleans: Robert, the media is criticized daily as "in the tank" for Obama. Can you settle a bet for me? The last time a vice presidential candidate was an unproven nobody with little elective experience, did The Washington Post pounce like you are on Palin? Can you compare and contrast your coverage of John Edwards, who I believe was a one-term senator when he was Kerry's vice presidential nominee, with your coverage of Palin?
Robert G. Kaiser: I haven't done the homework to be able to provide a serious comparison, but I do wonder if the two are really comparable? Edwards had run a plausible campaign for president when he was chosen as Kerry's running mate. He had won the admiration of many Democrats and a lot of others too (he may not still have it tonight, but that's another matter). He was no lightweight, though he was not heavy on foreign policy either. He was able to answer, and did answer, reporters questions for a long year before he became the VP candidate.
In my experience (45 years of this so far), no previous candidate was in Palin's class.
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Melbourne, Australia: Watching the debate from far-away Australia, John McCain describes Obama as "eloquent" in his speech. For me a president should be eloquent, and I think would make a refreshing change from the past eight years, particularly in terms of foreign perception of America (George Bush probably not being the most eloquent president ever)! Is this important for you and Americans?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think Obama's eloquence has been a huge boon to his candidacy. I suspect McCain thinks that too. He was, I thought, trying to turn his own lack of eloquence into some sort of straight-talking advantage with those comments. I doubt he succeeded.
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Oviedo, Fla.: For this lifelong Democrat -- McCain rocked it. He did cite a lot more experience and put the rest to the energizer-bunny "no more of the same eight years." That is too simplistic, and I was impressed at the decisiveness with which McCain stood up for himself. Obama sometimes has micro-expressions that he is challenged; I think he is too accustomed to rooms (or halls) full of quiet people listening to him and nodding. Game not over, but we had a good debate. Obama is losing me...
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Obama supporter here, and I thought he came out a little flat. I thought this was McCain's best effort. I'm a little surprised to see the instant polls tilting so strongly toward Obama. I think the bottom line is that people have decided they just don't like McCain.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this as well.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Am I the only one that thought McCain came off really angry tonight? It was really off-putting.
Robert G. Kaiser: Another precinct heard from...
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Minneapolis: Super secret kung fu political move by McCain! Remember when a few months ago, everyone was wondering why Sen. McCain was disappearing off the face of the earth to make a trip to Colombia? What possible purpose could it serve? He was missing out on crucial press support, which was being directed to Senators Obama and Clinton. ... Well, it was all a strategic move to set Sen. Obama up for the third and final debate, when he could bring up an obscure free trade agreement and accuse Sen. Obama of making the wrong vote and -- wait for it -- not even bothering to ever travel south of the border! Brilliant strategic political move, Sen. McCain!
Robert G. Kaiser: You think?
I know, I know, you Minnesotans are comics. Like Al Franken.
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Clarendon Hills, Ill.: I'm surprised not to read very many "Joe the plumber" comments. McCain must have brought Joe up a good 10 times or more. Frankly, to me, McCain going back and back to Joe the Plumber was just goofy. If a plumber makes $250,000 a year, I just don't think most Americans will be that worried about him (or believe he was a plumber...)
Robert G. Kaiser: Cynic.
I agree with you.
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Undecideds: The bottom line is that these two candidates are really only talking to about 10 percent to 15 percent of the public. It appears, based on the past few weeks, that the undecided voters really want to hear solutions and not attacks. In that regard, I think Obama won this debate. He was even-keeled and McCain came off as angry. What are your thoughts? By the way -- these two are so different -- what people are still undecided? Do they live under a rock?
Robert G. Kaiser: See the report above from the Denver focus group. And thanks for posting.
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"I do not believe a single national nightly news show on cable, broadcast or public television is lead by an African American man ...": Lester Holt anchors the weekend NBC Nightly News, and he is one of the best in the business.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you. I guess I never watch on Sunday nights. Football.
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Arlington, Va.: I'm an Obama supporter, and I think he debated the way the Redskins play football: not to lose. He's ahead in the polls and he thinks he can coast to victory by avoiding mistakes and hoping his opponent beats himself. Is that really wise? We've seen lots of elections -- Reagan/Carter comes to mind -- with huge last-minute swings. Why not keep fighting? McCain was beating him over the head with Ayers and ACORN and massive new spending -- he even called him "Sen. Government"! The Redskins' record in the past few years pretty much shows you the value of "playing not to lose."
Robert G. Kaiser:1) Under Jim Zorn, I don't think the Redskins now deserve that rap.
2) I see no basis for comparing Obama of '08 to Carter of '80. Much more likely that Obama is comparable to Reagan of '80.
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Sea Isle City, N.J.: Sen Obama claims John McCain will tax health benefits. Is this correct? What would that mean to seniors?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes it is correct. Seniors are on Medicare, which would not be taxed like private insurance.
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Maryland: You Post chatters are the best. In the old days (primary season) I got the debate Internet rundown from the New York Times Caucus, but they got nothin' on you.
Robert G. Kaiser: An excellent point!
And thank you.
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San Jose, Calif.: I have a totally different view about Bob Scheiffer. To ask for a number on how much imported oil would be saved by the candidates' energy plans during the next president's first term was, I thought, downright silly. And when McCain went on and on about all those clean coal and nuclear plants ... does Schieffer have a clue about how long it takes to bring a new nuclear or new-technology coal plant on line? McCain certainly didn't. But Schieffer never followed up about some of the vaporous ideas they came up with. This was no debate. American presidential candidates don't debate!
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Philadelphia: Definitely thought this was the best of the debates. We have an inconsequential question, but one that has been bugging us. Is there any coordination between the campaigns (perhaps in the pre-date agreement) about the color of their ties? Tonight Obama wore a red-striped tie, and McCain a blue striped tie ... coincidence?
Robert G. Kaiser: I have never heard of any wardrobe coordination. I doubt it happens.
Thanks for posting.
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Bismarck, N.D.: The progression of the three debates has been fascinating as the two candidates have refined their debate styles in relation to one another. McCain won the first debate against a seemingly flustered Obama, who wasted a significant amount of time defending himself. The second contest actually was perhaps "a draw" as so many pundits carefully opined -- but primarily because of the lack of substance in favor of talking points by both candidates. By this third debate, Obama was in control and able to stay on-task, making McCain's attacks seem desperate and, frankly, "erratic."
Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting comment, but according to every poll I have seen, also wrong. Obama clearly won both of the first two debates, according to our poll, the NY Times-CBS poll, the Pew Center poll and the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll.
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Cincinnati: It's funny -- left-leaning media like The Washington Post saw an Obama first-round knockout. I didn't see that at all. I noticed that every Obama proposal included spending more money -- my money. I noticed that Joe the Plumber landed some punches on Obama that McCain couldn't. (By the way, is that guy a Republican plant? If so, the Republicans should teach Hillary how to plant a questioner in a crowd!) Is it just because I'm a grouchy white guy from Ohio?
Robert G. Kaiser: No, it's just because you have your own opinions, as you should! Previous reply reports on what the polls found, but none of them were unanimous. You have lots of company. Those who thought Obama won have even more company.
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Kingston, Ontario: Is it just me, or has John McCain repeatedly confused autism with Down Syndrome? He kept referring to autism and stating that "Sarah Palin understands this better than most people" ... however, her youngest child was diagnosed with Down Syndrome, not autism.
Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting. I know of no expertise that Palin brings on autism, but wonder if I have missed something? Or perhaps you figured it out. Sorry, can't clear it up.
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Chicago: I thought Bob Scheifer's query on negative adds was genius. Okay, you two have said some pretty low things about each other in advertisements ... either of you have the guts to say it across the table? McCain swallowed the bait and gave Obama the enviable opportunity to refute the Ayers charges in a logical and measured response to millions of Americans. Obama couldn't have paid enough for a better opportunity and venue to rebut all of McCain's and Palin's attack. Then Obama, in response to the same question, went "general" -- giving McCain no similar opportunity to hit the softball.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you. And thanks to everyone for taking part in our chat, another interesting one from my perspective.
I'll be back for a marathon discussion on Election Night, and look forward to it. I think we'll start around 7 p.m., but there will be an announcement on the washingtonpost.com homepage that day. Please join us then. Chris Hopkins is lining up a lot of other guests to allow me to perform certain vital functions during the night.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 16, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 15, 2008 Wednesday 3:00 PM EST
Real Life Politics
BYLINE: Ruth Marcus, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 5564 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post opinion columnist Ruth Marcus was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 3 p.m. ET to discuss her recent columns, her posts on the Post Partisan blog and the latest news.
Washington Post opinion columnist Ruth Marcus was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 3 p.m. ET to discuss her recent columns, her posts on the Post Partisan blog and the latest news.
The transcript follows.
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Ruth Marcus: Hi everybody, sorry to be starting a bit late. The complete truth is that I was sittering here wondering what, exactly, we at the editorial board should think about writing about the debate tonight that has not yet taken place. This is a little peak behind the scenes, but our first edition deadlines are such that we can't really reflect very much about the debate before that goes to press, so we need to write something that won't look TOO outdated...
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Chicago: Thanks. Is it too much to hope for that maybe we could hear some discussion of public policy re: transportation? Higher education? Gobal warming? Agriculture? Urban issues? Crime? Housing (apart from the meltdown)? Executive privilege? Obviously the economy is a red-hot topic, but I fear that even that only will get cursory talking points. Am I too cynical, or too hopeful?
Ruth Marcus: Well, I for one would love it if tonight's debate could touch on some of those things. Maybe we should make you the moderator!
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Sun Prairie, Wis.: Ms. Marcus: After eight years with George Bush as President, isn't it time someone asked the two candidates what they plan to continue or change about the way Bush has run his White House? Do either Obama or McCain plan to allow greater press access, use the security classification to keep embarrassing information quiet, ignore subpoenas and stonewall investigations? Will their vice president have a role similar to Dick Cheney's? Will their senior campaign operatives have policy responsibilities in the White House?
It may be hard for someone asking questions like these to show empathy with struggling middle-class voters in battleground states, but we already know the debate is likely to be boring. Why not give the candidates a chance to explain how they would conduct themselves differently than the president we have now?
Ruth Marcus: Another great question--especially the first sentence of it which is not as politically loaded.
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Rolla, Mo.: If Obama maintains a sizeable lead in the polls going into election day, won't this ACORN stuff be meaningless? They aren't exactly responsible for him polling 8 percentage points ahead right now, are they?
Ruth Marcus: I really think the ACORN stuff is a measure of the desperation and anger Republicans are feeling right now.
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Baltimore: Ruth, is it just my impression or is the split between the small-town, religious-type conservatives (e.g. Huckabee/Palin) and the really rich plutocrat-type conservatives (e.g. Bush/Cheney) growing? How do you see the Republican Party reconstituting itself after what looks to be another drubbing at the polls this year -- certainly in congressional races if not the presidential race? Thanks.
Ruth Marcus: I'm not sure I see the split exactly that way--if so, where would you put McCain?--but I do think that in the aftermath of the election, if it goes as expected, there is going to be a fight for the soul of the Republican party that is going to be fascinating. Not necessarily social versus economic conservatives, but more purists vs. realists, I think, Old Guard "accommodationists"--I'm looking for a less loaded term--vs. younger true believers.
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Boonsboro, Md.: Love your articles and the way you respond to the moonbats that demand you conform to their party's talking points, but if you really think the next administration will act selflessly, you need to return to this planet. Not happening.
Ruth Marcus: Not in interplanetary travel yet, I don't think, just making the silver lining point that this might actually give the next president some political maneuvering space.
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Montgomery Village, Md.: Ruth, besides the many other topics mentioned by an earlier poster, why has there been so little discussion about immigration during this campaign? It seems barely a year ago that it was one of the hottest topics going. Has it become the new "third rail"?
Ruth Marcus: General agreement between the two candidates, not a big benefit for either of them to raise it, not on the legislative landscape, voters riled up over other issues...
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Minneapolis: Hi Ruth -- thanks for taking questions today, I appreciate your clear-eyed insights. Maybe it's a sad commentary on the state of politics, but part of me feels like the Republican circular firing squad (Kristol, Brooks, et al) in a knot about McCain's campaign and prospects is all a Rovian ruse to get Democrats so comfortable that they don't think they have to vote ... and voila! Republicans sneak in and squeak by. Please tell me I'm overthinking this.
Ruth Marcus: You're overthinking. I think the race is closer than some of the polls suggest, but I don't think the Republicans had a big meeting at which they secretly planned to wring their hands without meaning it so Dems would ease up.
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Diamondhead, Miss.: What would you do with the Department of Homeland Security after all the problems since it was created?
Ruth Marcus: Live with it as is for the meantime, anyway. Bigger fish to fry, try making it as functional as possible.
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Scarsdale, N.Y.: Not to tar all reporters with the same brush (or in homage to Paul Newman in "Hud," "don't go shootin' all the dogs because some have fleas") but I see definite signs already that some of them are doing their damndest to make this race seem closer than it is (check out Devid Gregory's creative use of old polls on his show yesterday for example). I'm not saying that the race is over, but if one candidate has a substantial lead with three weeks to go, and all indicators are going one way, why mislead the reader/viewer that some sort of comeback is starting when there is absolutely no proof that one exists?
It's stuff like this that makes people suspect that your industry is much more about generating profits by creating drama where there is none than it is about providing accurate information. Again, I'm not saying that it's over; I'm just saying that some of these people are just out to entertain, and don't show much responsibility to the public.
Ruth Marcus: Boy, one minute we're big cheerleaders for Obama, the next we're corporate shills just trying to make nonexistent news. Sorry, not accepting either characterization.
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Arlington, Va.: There is a big story in the New York Post about Obama responding to an Ohio Plumber's tax question. The plumber asks why he will be taxed more for achieving the American dream, and Obama responds by telling him that we will be better off if we "share the wealth." Is this the hanging curveball the GOP has been waiting for? This guy claims to be a centrist, but in reality he is an extremely liberal first-term senator.
Ruth Marcus: I saw some references to that but not the full context. It is true that Obama's tax plan is more redistributionist--a word they don't like in Obamaland--than McCain's, but the truth is that the concept of a progressive tax code is to "share the wealth." Probably not what the political advisers would want him to say, however.
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Oviedo, Fla.: Thanks for your chats and insights. I loved seeing you on PBS -- please stay in place 30 more years! On the excellent PBS Frontline election show last night, Tom Daschle candidly discussed how he advised Obama to run now, early in his national career, because there was little or no record (votes and so on) that would pop up and have to be explained later. I swear he said this, at some length. No a gotcha snippet. How craven is this cynical logic? An almost-blank resume is a ... good thing? Political know-how and cunning are one thing, but suggesting that virtual newcomers are ideal in that they are an easier sell made me really uncomfortable. Really, really uncomfortable. Want a new pilot, rookie surgeon or an outta-the-box broker? Um, no.
Ruth Marcus: Well, I didn't see the show--though I love PBS also and I really enjoy being on it--but it is true that a long Senate record has been a problem for previous presidential candidates who come from the Senate. Just look at how much hay Republicans made of Obama's vote on the budget resolution (this is the spurious basis for the voted to raise taxes on those making more than $42,00 a year charge) and on the 94 times he allegedly voted to raise taxes. So Daschle may be cynical, but he may also be right.
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Richmond, Va.: Maybe it is too early to ask this, but do you think Palin is the new face of the Republican party? If so, what is it that the Republicans will want with someone like Palin?
Ruth Marcus: I've been thinking a lot about that. I certainly think that, as a friend of mine said, a lot of political consultants, if McCain loses, will be headed to Anchorage to explain how they could position her for 2012, and that she will be, at least initially, in the front tier of candidates. Part of me thinks that she would be a formidable contender because of her strong communication skills; part (the bigger part) believes that she does not have the knowledge/gravitas to survive a regular election process (in other words, not parachuting into the vice presidential nomination but slogging it out in Iowa and New Hampshire with Mitt Romney at all).
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Provo, Utah: Who would the candidates appoint to the White House staff and to the cabinet? My anger and frustration with the current excuse for a president is at least half at the self-serving, power hungrey mob he has had in his staff! (Think Cheney/Haliburton, Alberto Gonzales, etc.!)
washingtonpost.com: Cabinet Maker (CQpolitics.com)
Ruth Marcus: First place is to look at who they have around them in their campaigns. One of the strong selling points for me with Obama is the quality in particular of his economic team.
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Prescott, Ariz.: I read your " When Life Hands You Deficits..." article, and I think you fall into a common (at least to Washington) trap, which is assuming that a recession is a time for the government to tighten its belt and stop thinking big. I don't think this is necessarily the case, and I think I can explain it using health care.
Is it not the case that Americans consume more of their GDP (by a large margin) on health care than the rest of the first world? Doesn't this mean that our system is incredibly inefficient? When us Americans were sold NAFTA, we were told that trade as it stood was incredibly inefficient, and while knocking down trade barriers would hurt some workers the resulting efficiency gains would be so large that the displaced workers easily could be retooled into the larger, more efficient economy.
Now I partly disagree with the validity of this argument of economic growth as applied to NAFTA, but I think it does work as a template on how reforming health care to be more efficient would unlock American potential that currently is wasted. A lot of American productivity is lost to chronic health issues that weren't treated when they were less expensive and less chronic. Further, A lot of American workers are slaves to a health care plan and can't go out on a entrepreneurial limb and start their own businesses (like myself, a childhood cancer survivor who can't realistically get insurance on the open market). I am saying that a better health care system could increase productivity and American ingenuity. In return the government would get more tax proceeds, and an initial outlay that looked expensive or not doable is actually a bargain.
Ruth Marcus: I'm sure I should have been clearer on this in the column, but I was not arguing for mid-recession belt-tightening. We're all Keynesians now and I am open to stimulative action in the short term. What I am hoping for is that the moment could be used as a way to forge a more responsible, more productivity-enhancing budget in the longer term, that could fund investments in important things like health care, and free the next president from some of his more unaffordable promises.
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Ohio plumbers make more than $250,000 a year?: Yeesh, am I in the wrong line of work.
Ruth Marcus: ME TOO!!!
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Raleigh, N.C.: In the short term, I don't care if Obama (or McCain, but looking at the polls...) doesn't care about the deficit. The economy needs rescuing. But in the long term, I am concerned that Obama will look at the recent history and see that Reagan/Bush Sr. exploded the deficit and debt by being conservative on tax cuts and defense spending, then Clinton raised taxes and was cautious on spending and got control of our fiscal situation, and then Bush Jr. re-exploded the debt and deficit by being conservative.
Obama may well say: "You know what? I'm not playing that game. I'm not going to be the 'adult' and put off my liberal agenda and enable the next president to be another feckless, reckless conservative." Really, if you were Obama, and you wanted to create a health care plan and cut taxes for workers and transition to a greener economy, why in the heck would you put that off even while the economy recovers? And if Obama were to be replaced by a conservative Republican, it would be that guy who would be forced by fiscal realities to be pragmatic and not ideological.
Ruth Marcus: That would be pretty depressing, and it would suggest that Obama is unconcerned about the long-term well-being of the country. I think he is concerned and I think he will try--how hard is another question--to govern responsibly if he is elected.
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Savannah, Ga.: As you pointed out, the Young Turks of the Republican Party are about as ideological as you can get. When recent events seem to show these ideals as hollow, why rally around them? For instance, how can you demand lassiez faire capitalism in this environment?
Ruth Marcus: Because the party has pushed out almost everybody else?
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: So what does this election -- and to a lesser extent the 2006 congressional elections -- say about Karl Rove's grandiose "permanent Republican majority"?
Ruth Marcus: Oops. I'm not sure it was ever going to happen, given demographic trends, but the behavior of the Republican party helped make sure of that.
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Washington: Why does it matter what McCain's domestic policy proposals are when he'll face an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress?
Ruth Marcus: Because President McCain would still have the veto pen, the Democrats won't have a monolithic or veto-proof majority, and so there will be give and take in a McCain presidency. In short, it matters what the president proposes--and will ultimately accept.
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Durham, N.C.: If you think we have banking problems now, just wait for all these reverse mortages that the banks are pushing to fail. We need to stop this now!
Ruth Marcus: I see a lot of those ads on cable TV and have been wondering about them.
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Champlain, N.Y.: Who won the Canadian Elections yesterday? Curious!
washingtonpost.com: Canada's Harper Returned to Power As Prime Minister (Post, Oct. 15)
Ruth Marcus: here you go.
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The irony of ... timing?: I can't help thinking recently that Hillary Clinton was the economy candidate, and for many of us who supported her it was primarly for that very reason and because we believed things would be worsening over time -- although it accelerated more than many believed it would (I always thought it was underneath much worse than the pundits and people in power would acknowledge).
Obama was the anti-war candidate, McCain the security candidate. Here we are and I still think the Democrats on the primary and party level chose with their rose-colored wishes, not their brains. This cruelty of fate, timing and short-term thinking on the part of pundits and voters is truly annoying, if you ask me.
Ruth Marcus: It has always been thus (cruelty of timing.) John Kerry believes he lost the election because of an Osama videotape released the weekend before. It is an interesting question how an economic meltdown would have affected the primary race if it had happened back in Jan. or Feb. instead of now. But I do agree the country needs to think about who is the right president for the long term and for the unforseen/unforseeable circumstance.
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New York: Reports have Hillary Clinton in the debate audience tonight. This brings up the question of whether, notwithstanding her reputation as the "divisive" Democratic nominee, the present economic environment would have sufficed to put her over the top were she the standard-bearer on Nov. 4? Any thoughts?
Ruth Marcus: Any Democrat would be doing well against any generic Republican in this environment, I think. And this would have played to a particular strength of Sen. Clinton's.
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Silver Spring, Md.: What do you see Bush and Cheney doing with their time come Jan. 21? What about Condi Rice?
Ruth Marcus: Bush: raising money for library, Cheney: maybe writing memoirs Rice: something back in academia, maybe.
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Arlington, Va.: Ms. Marcus, this morning you discussed -- as part of tax reform -- eliminating "hidden entitlements," including "mortgage interest or employer-sponsored health care." Why is it that "pundits" such as yourself focus on how the middle-class needs to sacrifice? Why not increased taxes on the top 5 percent of income-earners? Why not eliminate no-bid contracting? Why not ban the outbreak of dumb wars like the one in Iraq that you advocated? Why do you fail to specify acts that would impact the Washington cocktail-party circuit?
Ruth Marcus: Oh please. Those are the two biggest "tax expenditures," which is why I mentioned them, and they happen to provide a greater benefit to those in the upper brackets than to those in the middle or toward the bottom. I have spent most of this campaign--all of it actually--railing against McCain and other GOP candidates for not being willing to undo the top bracket tax cuts. And my point today is that we should look at the entire budget, including these tax expenditures, and figure out whether we are dividing the pie in a rational, fair and compassionate way. Like finding money to spend on children's health or for education, rather than tax subsidies for people to buy million dollar houses.
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Washington: Re: Immigration, Latinos are a large voting block. Why stir that pot? We're not stupid, we know anti-immigration usually means anti-Latino.
Ruth Marcus: There was a particularly disturbing Obama ad linking McCain to Rush Limbaugh and anti-immigrant frothers.
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New York: Two things I've read in the last couple of days that concern me are that the Obama camp may be taking the Black vote for granted, and that in a desperate situation, McCain might announce that if elected he only would serve one term, ostensibly allowing him to focus on the issues without the focus on re-election politics. Do you agree with the first? And how likely is the second scenario?
Ruth Marcus: Probably not, I think the turnout will be huge.
As to the second, wouldn't that make things fun! Probably a little late to try that, though, and dicy because of the Palin effect.
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Re: Arlington, Va.: Wait, so anyone who supports something other than a flat tax is "extremely liberal"? Having the wealthy pay more to take care of those in need does not equal Socialism.
Ruth Marcus: Hummm, did I say that? Not sure what you're responding to but that is not what I think.
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The Debate: Here's a pre-debate topic: How do they get the attendees at these debates to maintain silence, and how do they weed out the shouters and disrupters? Do they threaten everyone with criminal prosecution for example, as with people who run out on the field during a baseball game? I remember during the Democratic debates a few people taking issue, loudly with the dopey questions asked by George Stephanopoulos and Charlie Gibson. Hasn't happened yet, has it? What's better, the security or the questions?
Ruth Marcus: Haven't been in person at any of those debates, but it's pretty hard to get a ticket to be in the audience and I am sure there is a lot of "pre-game" warning.
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Bellingham, Wash.: Ms Marcus- Thanks for taking my question. I am curious why Obama allows McCain to say (repeatedly) that "the surge is working" during these debates without pushing back a bit. While it is true that Iraq is a safer place for U.S. soldiers (not that they went there to be safe, just ask them), the "surge" has not yielded any of the benefits promised by both Bush and McCain.
There has been virtually no political progress, there are more troops in Iraq now than before the "surge," Iraqis still get blown up while running errands, there is no work for the unemployed, availability of water and electricity is spotty at best, and kids still are dying of cholera for gosh sake. At this point, McCain's foreign policy cred hangs on the success of the "surge." Why does Obama seem to be giving him a pass on it?
Ruth Marcus: I disagree with your analysis that the surge has not yielded any of the promises benefits.
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One viewer's debate evolution: Debate 1: I champed at the bit all day and eagerly tuned in at night. Fascinated with parallel Twitter feed on a laptop. Cheered my candidate (Obama) out loud. Debate 2 (Biden-Palin): Pretty psyched to watch. Played Palin Bingo during the debate and beat my husband, even though he had "maverick" on his card and I didn't on mine. Debate 3: We went to a bar to watch. I couldn't hear a lot of it but had a good time drinking and chatting. The candidates seemed to be doing their thing and Obama looked good, so I didn't mind not getting it all. Tonight: I have to miss the debate for a church volunteer commitment. Don't really care -- nothing new will happen.
Ruth Marcus: You'll have ample avenues to watch it later. And, for my sake, let's hope something happens so there is something interesting to write about!
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Chicago: Please people, just stop it with the wistful Hillary nostalgia. Sure she had strengths, but she also had huge weaknesses. Her husband would have been out alienating people left and right, we would have been spending serious time talking about every little scandal and controversy anyone could dream up about her, Palin wouldn't have been the GOP vice president (meaning McCain's ticket might have looked a lot more attractive to voters hoping for stability in the White House), etc., etc. She lost -- it's done. Please move on. Thanks.
Ruth Marcus: Ok, posting so people will stop wallowing in what might have been. Actually, I don't think I've been hearing very much of that among Clintonistas, since Obama seems to be doing quite nicely.
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Long Beach, Calif.: Re: The republican divide, I tend to think it will be the neocons and religious wing-nuts vs. the educated, fiscally conservative. In other words, "Statesmen vs. Ideologues." If the religio-facist/neocon contingent wins, the Republican brand is doomed for a generation -- they are the Bush administration. If the statesmen/technocrats win the fight, our system of democracy might even be reinvigorated. Ideas and policy effecting disussion with an eye toward efficacy, vs. the current party's valuation of lock-step ideology and loyalty in the face of "rule of law," would be beneficial. Do you think the statesmen/technocrats can win, or do you think the Rovian ideologues and religio-facist "true believers" will win the party mantle?
Ruth Marcus: I think this is not the divide I see. Because there is a difference within the party between the fiscally conservative and those who would not tax anything ever no matter what.
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Charlottesville, Va.: Do you think the personal dimensions of this race largely are behind us, and that the last three weeks mostly will be issue-focused (i.e. the economy), or will the ad hominem attacks (by both sides) escalate as the days dwindle?
Ruth Marcus: Tonight may answer some of that, but I think we have definitely not seen the last of personal attacks. From campaigns or, more likely, outside groups.
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Cameron, N.C.: Re: ACORN voter registration, I moved to North Carolina in January; when I filled out my voter registration card I had to supply, in addition to my name and address, my driver license or social security number. So when the elections board gets a registration card that does not match have the proper ID, it does not issue a voter's card. Where is the problem? I guess the Republicans are just looking to rile up the base for the next four to eight years instead of accepting the blame for Bush.
Ruth Marcus: The evidence of actual voter fraud--that is, people who are voting who are not entitled to--is pretty thin, and the much bigger problem, to my mind, is people who are eligible to vote not being allowed to cast ballots.
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Atlanta: The liberal news media and the liberal popular culture really got in sync this year and delivered a certain win for Obama. Do you think we ever will see a Republican president again?
Ruth Marcus: Yes. Boy, that liberal news media and liberal popular culture haven't done very well with exercising their power over the last 40 years.
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East Lansing, Mich.: How many questions do you think the candidates will answer? I know they're going to talk continually, but how many specific questions do you think they will answer specifically, instead of just saying what they want to say?
Ruth Marcus: I think they will say what they want to say.
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Media, Pa.: So if Palin becomes the face of the New Republican Party if McCain loses, which gains more: the Libertarian Party or the Democratic Party?
Ruth Marcus: I think in the end she does not become the face. But it will be interesting to watch. I'd love to interview her, say, in Iowa in Dec. 2011.
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Regarding one-party government: Didn't Clinton start out with a Democratic Congress? Didn't help get us universal health care, did it? So, nice try McCain campaign, but I wouldn't buy it.
Ruth Marcus: Clinton and Carter both messed up with Democratic congresses. But...I do think it is worth spending some time worrying about excesses with one party in control of government.
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Washington: Ruth, I was reading on Politicker today about Nancy Pelosi's comments in Ohio this morning. She said that not ending the war in Iraq has been her biggest disappointment. With congressional Democrats poised to expand their margins in the House and Senate, do you think that Pelosi will be more forceful on "ending the war," or will she have to walk a fine line to keep her fractured caucus together? Will the GOP continue to use her as a punching bag for such comments?
washingtonpost.com: Pelosi: Not ending Iraq war is my biggest disappointment (Politicker, Oct. 15)
Ruth Marcus: I think she's said that before. There is going to be a lot of pent-up demand on the left for action, now, on Iraq and other matters, if Obama is elected.
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Debates: What is interesting to me is that on every debate day there has been very bad economic news. Now, tonight, the retail figures for September are lower than expected and the Dow is down more than 600. McCain doesn't exactly have good luck, does he?
Ruth Marcus: He has great luck (pulled the nomination rabbit out of the empty hat, after all) and terrible luck.
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Washington: As someone who is supporting Obama, I admit that I don't see the debate the same way uncommitted voters do. But I have lived and worked in small-town Iowa and Michigan as well as New York (for Giuliani no less), and we all have a lot more in common than the political ads and pundits want to admit. I am guilty of smacking my forehead when someone in a swing state talks about how Sarah Palin seems just like them. but I wish we could go further than the infuriating sound bite. Why are some people so uncomfortable with Obama? What is so reassuring about Palin? How do facts about each ticket affect people's opinions?
Ruth Marcus: Well, Obama is, as they say at Harvard Law School, sui generis. One of a kind--no one else has his exact background and I think he is harder to identify with. And there is obviously still a certain racial discomfort, if not animus, among some voters. And Palin--well, I don't find her reassuring, but I'm a soccer mom, not a hockey mom.
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Clancy, Mont.: The press really has run with this notion of "angry" Republicans lashing out at Obama, but the press has ignored the many attacks on McCain/Palin: Obama backers showing up at Palin events with T-shirts that call her a "c---," McCain campaign offices around the country being vandalized or torched, McCain backers being verbally harassed as they march in New York, and so on. Why has the reporting on this been so one-sided?
Ruth Marcus: Don't know. Don't know if it has. There's always bad behavior from supporters on both sides. I think the important thing is that candidates call people out on stuff like that when they hear it/see it/know about it.
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Philadelphia: I must say the ACORN stuff is coming across as desperate and ridiculous -- registrations don't equal voters. Of course, I went to high school with a guy whose grandparents were still registered (Republican) voters 10 years after their deaths. ... Meanwhile, I am concerned about poll workers' behavior. In 2004, all the workers in my voting location were wearing "W" lapel pins. What are poll workers allowed to do/wear in the location while working? Where can I find the guidelines (and print them out)? I was laughed at them when I said it was inappropriate, at the very least back then.
Ruth Marcus: These are state by state rules, and I would search for the guidelines on your Secretary of State's office, or Voter Registration office. That does not sound appropriate to me, either.
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I think they will say what they want to say: Then why even go through the pretense of having a moderator?
Ruth Marcus: I was being a little too flip. Look, the moderator can ask better or worse questions, and engage in more or less pointed (and informed) follow-up. But there are limits to what even the most skillful moderator can do with these rules, and the candidates (and their debate prep teams) know it.
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Silver Spring, Md.: I'd like to hear a question about gay rights (i.e. ending "Don't Ask Don't Tell) or gay marriage. What are the chances of this happening? Thanks!
Ruth Marcus: Reasonable, I think. I'd like to see it too, and smartly phrased so that the candidate can't just wiggle out of it.
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Didn't Clinton start out with a Democratic Congress? Didn't help get us universal health care, did it?: Even if the Democrats score a massive electoral victory, won't the anti-universal-health-care lobby just revive Harry and Louise?
Ruth Marcus: It's interesting, I think the industry is in something of a different place ideologically than it was back then--less reflexively opposed to health care reform because they know the current system is not sustainable.
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Excuse me? : Um Ruth ... did I just read that you favor elimination of the mortgage interest deduction as an economic/tax policy benefit to the nation? Please tell me that you were only mentioning a large area of tax deductions, and not a workable econometric strategy for turning around the economy and budget deficit! You apprently don't know it, so this former 17-year financial consultant will try and educate you.
Elimination of the mortgage interest deduction immediately would destroy anything left of the current housing market, a traditional pillar of our economy. Thus, the main engine of wealth capture and growth in American households would be eliminated. The "American Dream" would be virtually unatainable for all but the top 5 percent of income-earners in the nation. We would become a land of haves and have-nots overnight. The landed would be the landlords of the nation. Wow, and I thought Palin didn't get it!
Ruth Marcus: No, you did not read that I favor eliminating it. I do think it could be rethought and restructured to be more equitable. But I have to say I don't think the best way to have this discussion is for you to talk down to me. I try not to do that to questioners.
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Ruth Marcus: Ok, I need to go back to the not-very-productive pre-debate thinking I was doing before we got started. It was, as always, very fun chatting with you. I really enjoy the questions (most of them, anyway!)and the chance to engage.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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October 15, 2008 Wednesday 12:43 PM EST
Torture's Smoking Guns
BYLINE: Dan Froomkin, Special to washingtonpost.com, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 4196 words
HIGHLIGHT: Had they embarked on a serious inquiry into the legality, morality or even utility of torturing terror suspects, members of the Bush administration would have had no alternative but to conclude that what they were authorizing was illegal, unconscionable, and ineffective to boot. But soul-searching, evidently, was not a high priority.
Had they embarked on a serious inquiry into the legality, morality or even utility of torturing terror suspects, members of the Bush administration would have had no alternative but to conclude that what they were authorizing was illegal, unconscionable, and ineffective to boot. But soul-searching, evidently, was not a high priority.
The people closer to the operational level did, however, spend plenty of time making sure their asses were covered.
And the result is documentary evidence that perhaps some day will serve as Exhibit A that White House officials at the highest levels explicitly endorsed tactics that by any reasonable standard constituted torture, violated domestic and international law, and cast aside the respect for basic human dignity that has so long been central to our values as a country.
Joby Warrick writes in The Washington Post: "The Bush administration issued a pair of secret memos to the CIA in 2003 and 2004 that explicitly endorsed the agency's use of interrogation techniques such as waterboarding against al-Qaeda suspects -- documents prompted by worries among intelligence officials about a possible backlash if details of the program became public.
"The classified memos, which have not been previously disclosed, were requested by then-CIA Director George J. Tenet more than a year after the start of the secret interrogations, according to four administration and intelligence officials familiar with the documents. Although Justice Department lawyers, beginning in 2002, had signed off on the agency's interrogation methods, senior CIA officials were troubled that White House policymakers had never endorsed the program in writing. . . .
"As early as the spring of 2002, several White House officials, including then-national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and Vice President Cheney, were given individual briefings by Tenet and his deputies, the officials said. Rice, in a statement to congressional investigators last month, confirmed the briefings and acknowledged that the CIA director had pressed the White House for 'policy approval.'
"The repeated requests for a paper trail reflected growing worries within the CIA that the administration might later distance itself from key decisions about the handling of captured al-Qaeda leaders, former intelligence officials said."
"'The CIA believed then, and now, that the program was useful and helped save lives,' said a former senior intelligence official knowledgeable about the events. 'But in the agency's view, it was like this: "We don't want to continue unless you tell us in writing that it's not only legal but is the policy of the administration." '
"One administration official familiar with the meetings said the CIA made such a convincing case that no one questioned whether the methods were necessary to prevent further terrorist attacks. . . .
"But others who were present said Tenet seemed more interested in protecting his subordinates than in selling the administration on a policy that administration lawyers had already authorized."
Warrick notes what appears to be, at best, half-hearted pushback from some corners of the White House.
"Rice last month became the first Cabinet-level official to publicly confirm the White House's awareness of the program in its earliest phases. In written responses to questions from the Senate Armed Services Committee, Rice said Tenet's description of the agency's interrogation methods prompted her to investigate further to see whether the program violated U.S. laws or international treaties. . . .
"'I asked that . . . [then-attorney general John] Ashcroft personally advise the NSC principles whether the program was lawful,' Rice wrote. . . .
"Rice, now secretary of state, portrayed the White House as initially uneasy about a controversial CIA plan for interrogating top al-Qaeda suspects. . . .
"But whatever misgivings existed that spring were apparently overcome. Former and current CIA officials say no such reservations were voiced in their presence."
Today's news doesn't substantially change the already well-documented torture narrative, which puts the responsibility for approving waterboarding and other abusive tactics squarely at the highest levels of the White House. See, for instance, my April 14 column, Bush OK'd Torture Meetings, and my July 14 column, The Outlaw Presidency, about author Jane Mayer's tale of fear and its exploitation by Vice President Cheney.
Ostensibly, of course, this was all to protect the nation from terror attacks, and President Bush himself has claimed success. In a February Fox News interview, for instance, Bush said: "The American people have got to know that what we did in the past gained information that prevented an attack. And for those who criticize what we did in the past, I ask them, which attack would they rather have not permitted -- stopped? Which attack on America did they -- would they have said, well, you know, maybe it wasn't all that important that we stop those attacks."
But there's absolutely no evidence in the public domain to support Bush's assertion -- and no thwarted attacks to choose between.
And despite repeated assertions by Bush and his aides that " we don't torture," waterboarding -- a method of controlled drowning -- has been an iconic and almost universally condemned form of torture since the Spanish Inquisition.
Furthermore, interrogation experts say torture is counterproductive. There is nothing remotely logical about embracing torture, unless your goal is to extract confessions.
It remains unclear what tactics the CIA is still approved to use in the future. Bush in March successfully vetoed a bill that would have imposed on the CIA the same anti-torture prohibitions mandated by the Army Field Manual -- prohibitions against such tactics as waterboarding, prolonged exposure to freezing temperatures, forced nudity, sexual humiliation, mock executions, the use of attack dogs, the application of electric shocks and the withholding of food, water and medical care.
Incidentally, Steven Aftergood blogs for Secrecy News: "A newly reissued Department of Defense directive explicitly prohibits several of the more controversial interrogation techniques that have previously been practiced against suspected enemy combatants.
"So, for example, the new directive states that 'Use of SERE [Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape] techniques against a person in the custody or effective control of the Department of Defense or detained in a DoD facility is prohibited.' Waterboarding, in which a sensation of drowning is induced, is one such SERE technique."
Charlie Savage writes in the New York Times: "President Bush asserted on Tuesday that he had the executive power to bypass several parts of two bills: a military authorization act and a measure giving inspectors general greater independence from White House control.
"Mr. Bush signed the two measures into law. But he then issued a so-called signing statement in which he instructed the executive branch to view parts of each as unconstitutional constraints on presidential power.
"In the authorization bill, Mr. Bush challenged four sections. One forbid the money from being used 'to exercise United States control of the oil resources of Iraq'; another required negotiations for an agreement by which Iraq would share some of the costs of the American military operations there.
"The sections 'purport to impose requirements that could inhibit the president's ability to carry out his constitutional obligations,' including as commander in chief, Mr. Bush wrote.
"In the other bill, he raised concerns about two sections that strengthen legal protections against political interference with the internal watchdog officials at each executive agency. . . .
"The White House has defended Mr. Bush's use of signing statements as lawful and appropriate. But in 2006, the American Bar Association called the device 'contrary to the rule of law and our constitutional system of separation of powers.'
"Mr. Bush has used the signing statements to assert a right to bypass more than 1,100 sections of laws. By comparison, all previous presidents combined challenged about 600 sections of bills."
As I noted in my October 1 column, Bush's first signing statement in eight months actually came two weeks ago, appended to a $630 billion-plus stop-gap spending bill and vaguely objecting to "certain provisions similar to those found in prior appropriations bills passed by the Congress that might be construed to be inconsistent with my Constitutional responsibilities."
Alicia Mundy writes in the Wall Street Journal: "Bush administration officials, in their last weeks in office, are pushing to rewrite a wide array of federal rules with changes or additions that could block product-safety lawsuits by consumers and states.
"The administration has written language aimed at pre-empting product-liability litigation into 50 rules governing everything from motorcycle brakes to pain medicine. . . .
"This year, lawsuit-protection language has been added to 10 new regulations, including one issued Oct. 8 at the Department of Transportation that limits the number of seatbelts car makers can be forced to install and prohibits suits by injured passengers who didn't get to wear one.
"These new rules can't quickly be undone by order of the next president. Federal rules usually must go through lengthy review processes before they are changed. Rulemaking at the Food and Drug Administration, where most of the new pre-emption rules have appeared, can take a year or more. . . .
"The use of rulemaking to protect corporations from product liability was discussed from early in the Bush administration, said former Bush domestic-policy adviser Jay Lefkowitz, who was instrumental in the process. . . .
"Mr. Lefkowitz said the administration decided not to press its pre-emption agenda in Congress, where it might lose. 'There was already authority within federal government statutes and regulations to start the reform process without legislation,' he said. 'Using that and legal briefs, we proceeded.'"
There's much more in a report from the American Association for Justice, the trial lawyers' lobby, based on its repeated attempts to learn more through the Freedom of Information Act.
Jeff Bliss writes for Bloomberg: "President George W. Bush overstepped his authority by withholding an FBI interview of Vice President Dick Cheney from a congressional panel probing the leak of a CIA agent's identity, a draft bipartisan House report said.
"The interview may shed light on who disclosed former CIA agent Valerie Plame's identity, the draft report said. The report was circulated by House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, a California Democrat, and Virginia Representative Tom Davis, the panel's senior Republican.
"The president's decision to withhold the interview transcript from the committee in July 'was legally unprecedented and an inappropriate use of executive privilege,' the report said. . . .
"White House spokesman Tony Fratto today objected to the report and another one circulated by Waxman that said the administration wrongly asserted executive privilege regarding a separate panel investigation of climate change and Clean Air Act policies.
"Fratto said the committee received 'upwards of a million pages of documents' from the administration and that today's reports were partisan and unhelpful."
From the bipartisan report: "At its core, the doctrine of executive privilege is intended to preserve the ability of the President to receive confidential advice from the President's closest advisors. In the case of the FBI interview with the Vice President, there is no legal basis -- or precedent -- for asserting executive privilege in a situation like this. The Vice President had no reasonable expectation of confidentiality regarding the statements he made to Mr. Fitzgerald and the FBI agents. . . .
"There is no precedent holding that summaries of presidential conversations given to third parties -- as opposed to the original conversations themselves -- are subject to claims of executive privilege. . . .
"There is also no precedent in which executive privilege has been asserted over communications between a vice president and his staff about vice presidential decisionmaking. The Administration's refusal to produce the Vice President's interview report is particularly puzzling in light of the position taken by the Office of the Vice President that the Vice President is not an 'entity within the executive branch.' The logical extension of the Vice President's position is that executive branch confidentiality interests would not be relevant to his communications."
For background, see my Dec. 3 column, Bush Blocking Fitzgerald Cooperation, and my July 17 column, Mukasey the Obstructionist.
A draft report from House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Henry Waxman out this morning charges that in the months before the 2006 elections, the White House Office of Political Affairs "enlisted agency heads across government in a coordinated effort to elect Republican candidates to Congress," directing them "to make hundreds of trips -- most at taxpayer expense -- for the purpose of increasing the electability of Republicans."
More tomorrow.
John Whitesides writes for Reuters: "A record low of 21 percent in a Zogby poll gave positive marks to Bush's job performance. . . .
"Ratings for the Bush administration's foreign and economic policy plummeted over the last month, with the number of people who give positive marks to economic policy falling to a paltry 7 percent from 13 percent."
Cathleen Decker writes in the Los Angeles Times that a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll makes it clear that Republican presidential candidate John McCain "remains tethered to an unpopular president. Obama has repeatedly pressed the argument that the Republican's first term would be akin to George W. Bush's third. Americans generally agreed: 52% said McCain would continue Bush's policies, compared with 42% who said he would not."
Kristin Jensen and Heidi Przybyla write for Bloomberg: "Bush's influence is palpable in the survey: 84 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track. Only 23 percent approve of the way he's handling his job, less than the level of support for Richard Nixon before he resigned in 1974."
Michael Cooper and Megan Thee write in the New York Times on the latest New York Times/CBS News poll: "With the election unfolding against the backdrop of an extraordinary economic crisis, a lack of confidence in government, and two wars, the survey described a very inhospitable environment for any Republican to run for office. More than 8 in 10 Americans do not trust the government to do what is right, the highest ever recorded in a Times/CBS News poll. And Mr. McCain is trying to keep the White House in Republican hands at a time when President Bush's job approval rating is at 24 percent, hovering near its historic low."
Walter R. Mears writes for the Associated Press: "In times of national stress, Americans usually turn to the White House for reassurance. But President Bush's attempts to provide it haven't registered because he does not inspire trust. His standing sagged to record lows in the polls even before the financial meltdown, undermining his credibility as the administration tried to chart a way out of it. Fear of financial collapse, not the persuasion of the president, got the $700 billion bailout enacted."
Dan Eggen writes in The Washington Post: "In announcing plans to partly nationalize nine major banks yesterday, President Bush found himself in the unusual position of having to reassure Americans that he was not, in fact, opposed to capitalism. . . .
"The ongoing global financial crisis has prompted a series of unlikely decisions by Bush, an avowed advocate of laissez-faire economics who has nonetheless approved dramatic government interventions over the last month in an attempt to free up credit and stabilize collapsing financial markets."
Richard Wolf writes for USA Today: "For a former small businessman, Bush's interventionist policies represent a quantum leap from the free market approach he brought to Washington from his native Texas. 'I made a decision that is really opposite of my philosophy,' he told[Chantilly, Va.] small-business owners last week.
"The latest venture into commercial banks -- 'capital injection' in White House lexicon -- is but another in a series of philosophical concessions Bush has made when convinced that sticking to his principles would bring on economic calamity."
John Farmer writes in his Newark Star-Ledger opinion column: "The Bush administration has come full circle -- from Karl Rove to Karl Marx.
"Who'd have believed it? Socialism with a Republican face!
"With political guru Rove leading the laissez-faire chorus, no U.S. administration ever has been as ideologically committed to regulation-free market capitalism as the Bush team -- not even the Coolidge-Hoover administrations of the 1920s, when another speculation spree preceded the Great Depression.
"Yet the level of government intervention under Bush is unmatched by anything since the liberal Roosevelt administration in the Depression-dogged 1930s. Predictably, it has produced a wave of fear and loathing in deeply conservative circles."
Indeed.
Matthew Benjamin and Rich Miller write for Bloomberg: "The heirs to the Reagan revolution say the free-market principles that have held sway for almost three decades in the U.S. are being undermined. And many of them blame the Bush White House.
"This week's announcement that the Treasury will buy equity stakes in nine banks for $125 billion capped a month of the deepest government intervention in the economy in seven decades. More is likely to come, as lawmakers extend oversight of financial institutions and other industries."
Libertarians, supply-siders and tax-cut advocates agree "that the Bush administration is the main culprit for the betrayal of President Ronald Reagan's philosophy, which has underpinned the Republican Party for a generation.
"'It was brought about by George W. Bush abandoning any kind of Republican principles,' said William Niskanen, chairman emeritus of the Cato Institute, a libertarian Washington research group. . . .
"Bush's Republican critics say the president was pushing for a bigger government role long before the rescue. They point to moves ranging from the $168 billion stimulus plan the administration negotiated with Democrats in February, to the 2003 Medicare prescription-drug program, which is expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade."
Former congressman John LeBoutillier writes in his blog that Bush's "presidency has been anything but conservative. In fact, it has been the most incompetent, dis-honest and un-conservative administration - ever!
"Just look at these few items which, if done by a Democrat, would have brought calls from us on the Right not only to impeach but to imprison for life:"
His 16 bullet points include: "Lied, distorted and cherry picked US intelligence to scare the Hell out of a nervous American people after 9/11 to justify a pre-emptive invasion of a country that had not attacked us," "Mis-managed every aspect of the war in Iraq," "Showed true ineptitude - and a total lack of compassion - after that Compassionate Conservatism nonsense - in dealing with Hurricane Katrina," "Blustering and boasting and bragging at every turn about how we might bomb or attack or invade any country who dared to disagree with us" and "And now this year: one massive bail-out after another - over a trillion dollars - with talk of nationalizing banks and other industries."
John D. McKinnon writes in the Wall Street Journal: "The federal government ran a deficit of almost $455 billion in fiscal 2008, the White House reported, a record that will likely be far exceeded by the red ink in the current fiscal year.
"The widening deficit -- up from $162 billion for fiscal 2007 -- stemmed in large part from lower revenues and higher expenditures due to the troubled economy, as well as higher defense spending in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"As bad as 2008 was, the current fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, is widely expected to be far worse. The director of the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated the annual deficit could hit $750 billion given the potential impacts from a possible recession and the financial markets' problems. Some private economists put the 2009 deficit at as much as $1 trillion."
Matthew Lee writes for the Associated Press: "U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have agreed on a draft security pact that would govern the presence of American troops in Iraq after January, Bush administration officials say, but its final approval is far from certain.
"The draft calls for U.S. troops to pull out of Iraqi cities by the end of June next year and leave Iraq by Dec. 31, 2011, unless the Baghdad government asks them to stay. It also includes a compromise on the biggest bone of contention: legal immunity for American forces. . . .
"The compromise allows Iraq to claim jurisdiction over Americans while preserving nearly all the protections U.S. forces and employees now hold in Iraq. The vagueness appears deliberate, thus allowing both sides to argue they got concessions they needed. . . .
"The draft, reached after months of halting and often tense talks, contains elements that are expected to further aggravate an already difficult effort to get the Iraqi government and parliament on board, the officials said.
"It also may draw objections from U.S. lawmakers, whose support is not legally required but is considered essential to the eventual success of any deal, according to the officials.
"However, the negotiating teams have decided they cannot improve on the proposal and have sent it to higher-ups for a political decision as time runs out on both the Bush administration and the U.N. mandate under which U.S. troops now operate, which expires on Dec. 31, they say."
Vice Presidential Press Secretary Megan Mitchell announced this morning that Cheney had cancelled a planned campaign event in Illinois today to get his heart restored to normal rhythm.
"During a visit with his doctors this morning, it was discovered that the Vice President is experiencing a recurrence of atrial fibrillation, an abnormal rhythm involving the upper chambers of the heart," she said in a statement. "Later this afternoon, the Vice President will visit George Washington University Hospital for an outpatient procedure to restore his normal rhythm."
Deb Riechmann notes for the Associated Press that this is "the second time in less than a year that he will have the procedure."
Helene St. James writes for the Detroit Free Press: "President George W. Bush treated them like old friends who'd come back for one last visit, mentioning several by name and speaking in great detail of their accomplishments.
"The Red Wings enjoyed the last bit of pomp and circumstance befitting an NHL Stanley Cup champion Tuesday afternoon at the White House when they were honored by the president in a ceremony in the East Room. . . .
"'In 2002, the Red Wings were the first NHL team I hosted for a Stanley Cup ceremony,' the president said. 'Turns out they are the last team I'll be hosting. You guys may be back next year -- but not me. So I welcome you here.'...
"The team saw part of the White House before the ceremony, and spent a few moments talking to Bush in private.
"'I don't know how a president can ever be regular,' coach Mike Babcock said, 'but he is.'"
In her blog, St. James writes: "I'll say this: Regardless of one's political views, there's no doubt President George W. Bush knows how to talk sports."
Roger Friedman writes for Fox News that "the real success of 'W' is that our current president comes off as sympathetic more often than not. [Director Oliver] Stone and his screenwriter Stanley Weiser do much to portray him as tortured son with a domineering father, a gullible lightweight who becomes almost a pawn in the hands of more demonic players. . . .
"Stone told me that during the making of the film, he actually came to feel sorry for George W. Bush. 'As a dramatist,' he said, 'not as a voter.' The movie, he agreed, plays more like a tragedy than a comedy."
J. Hoberman writes for the Village Voice: "This W. is the saga of a tormented, father-obsessed [expletive] who manages to play out his family drama on a world-historical stage."
Jeff Dufour and Patrick Gavin write for the D.C. Examiner about the movie's New York premiere last night: "The red carpet was filled with members of the 'W.' cast who were less than supportive of the current Republican administration. . . .
"James Cromwell, who played George Bush Sr., thinks Bush 43 ran the country like 'imperial Rome' and said that all he needs after being president 'is a good lawyer.'"
Upon reading yesterday's column, While Bush Fiddled, reader Max Lumens suggested the following neologism: "Nero-cons, the inevitable successors to Neo-cons. And boy, have we been conned."
David Fitzsimmons on Che Bush and Britain's Peter Brookes asks: Who's the poodle now?
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October 15, 2008 Wednesday 11:00 AM EST
Pearlstein: Financial Meltdown
BYLINE: Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4877 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post columnist Steven Pearlstein was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 11:00 a.m. ET to discuss the stock market's return to a state of relative calm and where we go from here.
Washington Post columnist Steven Pearlstein was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 11:00 a.m. ET to discuss the stock market's return to a state of relative calm and where we go from here.
A transcript follows.
About Pearlstein: Steven Pearlstein writes about business and the economy for The Washington Post. His journalism career includes editing roles at The Post and Inc. magazine. He was founding publisher and editor of The Boston Observer, a monthly journal of liberal opinion. He got his start in journalism reporting for two New Hampshire newspapers -- the Concord Monitor and the Foster's Daily Democrat. Pearlstein has also worked as a television news reporter and a congressional staffer.
Pearlstein was honored with the Pulitzer Prize for commentary for his columns about mounting problems in the financial markets. His award was one of six Pulitzer Prizes won by The Washington Post this year.
Read Pearlstein's latest columns.
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Woodbridge, Va.: You said something yesterday to the effect of "the economy will get worse. expect it. prepare for it." How do you know this and what signs should we look for?
Thank you.
Steven Pearlstein: Obviously, nobody "knows" it. It's a guess based on a fair amount of observation and experience, which after all is what economics is. You can look at the current data on retail sales today, or industrial production and payroll and unemployment data and pretty much conclude that growth is somewhere around zero now. And you can look at the trendlines, and what's happening in financial markets, and reason that we've not hit the bottom yet. The one bright spot is that energy and other commodity prices are falling fast and this will take a good deal of pressure off family budgets and help to bolster consumer confidence a bit. But given the impact of the financial crisis on confidence and behavior of households and companies, the good news on commodities will probably get swamped.
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Rockville, Md.: So many people are racing to blame either Republicans or Democrats for whatever happens. Do you think there is a chance that coming changes in Executive branch and Congress will stop (or, at least, reduce) this and people in charge will start concentrating on the real issues and solutions rather than continue this pointless fighting?
Steven Pearlstein: Between now and the election, that would be like asking politicians to act like saints. Not a likely possibility. .After that, I think there is a good chance that political leaders will behave in a more constructive,bipartisan, problem-solving way. The country is sick and tired of the years of bickering and gridlock, and so, frankly, are the politicians. The crisis is upon us. They know their longterm future is tied to their success in getting government working again and showing some leadership (which in many cases involves intelligent followship). And whatever you think about their programs, both of the presidential candidates have real leadership abilities and a willingness to ignore and challenge the special interest groups that have been the source of the gridlock. So I am actually very hopeful of what we can expect from Washington after the election.
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New York, N.Y.: Mr. Pearlstein, How likely do you think it is that the Dow will go below 8000 before this is all over? Thank you.
Steven Pearlstein: I think it is likely it will get close to 8,000 to test that as the new floor. From what I saw last week, there are a lot of computerized buying programs that kick in when it reaches 8,000 right now. But if economic conditions deteriorate further, it is possible that the humans who put in those buy orders and set up that programmed trading will change their minds and put the number even lower. That is what we have to test. But 8,000 would surely be a moment to begin making some selected purchases and seeing what happens. Don't expect that there will be one moment where you should jump back in with everything. You're not that smart -- nobody is. You need to think about making purchases in small batches at different levels, to hedge things a bit.
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Manzanita, Ore.: Steve, It seems that this financial crisis won't be over until the shadow banking system is dismantled. On Charlie Rose and in other media appearances you've called for establishing a CDS Clearing House. But don't we need to unwind the alphabet soup of high risk investment vehicles in the shadow banking system before we can really move forward?
Thanks for your clear and helpful comments in the Post and elsewhere!
Steven Pearlstein: There is no putting the genie back int he bottle when it comes to the shadow banking system. It will be part of the financial architecture because there are efficiencies and risk-dispersion characteristics that make it attractive. What we have to do is bring the system out of the shadows, shine some light on it, adopt some rules and regulation so that the decision of whether to go through the banks or through the markets is based on the relative business merits of each channel, not based on regulatory arbitrage.
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Brest, France: Nouriel Roubini, whose forecasts about the credit cycle to date have been frighteningly accurate, says that the next president should fire Bernanke, Paulson and spend like mad on public works projects to create jobs that shore up the US economy. Do you agree, and would you please give your reasons?
Steven Pearlstein: I don't know if Nouriel spoke of firing Bernanke. Paulson is a short timer, by his own request but Bernanke actually is appointed for a term and can't be removed and surely shouldn't be, if for no other reason than the last thing you want at this moment is to politicize the Federal Reserve. Nor does Bernanke deserve to be fired -- he's doing a fantastic job under difficult circumstances. Nouriel and I both have criticized Bernanke for being slow to acknowledge the housing and credit bubble and take steps to deal with it, but that is water under the bridge at this point. He's been moving very aggressively in recent months and actually pushed Bush and Paulson farther and faster than they would have otherwise gone.
Yes, as I said today, the focus needs to be on direct job creation by the federal government, both in terms of providing cash to state and local governments so they can keep vital services flowing (and state workers employed) and through SMART investment in badly needed infrastructure. It doesn't have to be just roads and bridges. Surely public transit should be a priority, which means building tracks and trolley lines and ordering rolling stock. It means upgrading the air traffic system, from air traffic control to the airports. It means investment in new regional electric transmission line, building new power plants and oil refineries, drilling for natural gas, erecting lots of windmills. It could also mean expanding the physical plant of state university systems to accomodate more students. Since this is going to be ra relativeloy long downturn, the usual criticism of such "public works" projects -- that they take too long to get up and running-- isn't as valid. If they get going a year from now, that will be good, because that is about when the economy will be flat on its back.
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Asheville, N.C.: Recession is good. Finally this problem has gotten our attention, but what will it take to really fix the problem? I'm not hearing the "D" word yet but maybe that is what is needed. I just heard Kevin Phillips on NPR this morning and you both seem to see this thing clearly. I am advising friends and relatives "Be Prepared" and keep up with Steven Pearlstein and Kevin Phillips as this thing develops.
Steven Pearlstein: If there is any place I'd like to be riding out a recession, it's Asheville, N.C., particularly in the fall. The thing about Kevin Phillips is how clever he has been about reinventing himself and seeing the next big issue before other people. I'm a big admirer, too, although I think he is sometimes over the top. But I admire that about him too, his willingness not to be constrained by conventional wisdom.
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Cabin John, Md.: Warren Buffett says in his letters to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway that he expects the next generation to repudiate the debt incurred for our follies. Does this mean that the 11 trillion never gets paid back and that holders of government paper should beware? Is this why the Chinese stopped buying our bonds?
Steven Pearlstein: I don't know what he means -- he doesn't consult me, alas. I suspect what he may mean is that we'll let inflation rise, which is a way of screwing creditors without actually defaulting.
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Santa Cruz, Calif.: What do you think of owning some gold (e.g. GLD) as a hedge against inflation and dollar devaluation?
Steven Pearlstein: There are lots of ways to "own" gold, but that sounds like a good plank in any investment strategy for the next several years.
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Kensington, Md.: From your Oct. 14 column: "Then comes commercial real estate, where values are already plummeting, vacancy rates are rising and permanent financing is difficult to find. A collapse in this sector would be particularly bad news for regional banks and insurance companies." Can you elaborate on the bad news for insurance companies? How will this be bad news for insurance companies? I may want to ditch my insurance stock before this news hits the fan.
washingtonpost.com: It's Wall Street's Turn to Bolster Confidence ( Post, Oct. 14)
Steven Pearlstein: A lot of commercial real estate is owned and financed by large insurance companies -- its one of the thing they do with all those premiums between when you pay them and when you die or make a claim.
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Falls Church, Va.: Your column was fine today, until the part at the end where you say we can revitalize the economy through transfer payments and road-building. This has been tried many times, and it's never worked. It didn't work for FDR (the economy didn't pick up until WWII), and it didn't work for the Japanese (a decade of doldrums and a network of empty highways). Please, let's not turn a crisis into ten years of disaster.
washingtonpost.com: Buckle Up -- We Haven't Reached Bottom Yet ( Post, Oct. 15)
Steven Pearlstein: Transfer payments to people who have lost their jobs works very well. They spend it, it helps to put a floor under aggregate demand and its a humane thing to do. And in the current situation, intelligent investment in public works is just smart. The cost of money is low, the longterm payoffs can be very high and it also helps to put a floor under aggregate demand. The Japanese didn't invest wisely -- it was all political and very boring stuff with low payoff. As to whether it worked during the New Deal, two things: first, you don't know how bad things might have been without it; and, second, it is likely not to have as good an effect in priming the pump when the financial system is bankrupt. I don't think that is the case now.
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Boulder, Colo.: I felt that the worst thing about how much housing prices rose in the past few years was how hard it made buying a house for the average, prudent-spending working person - who 'DIDN'T' feel comfortable committing to a huge amount on a monthly mortgage. I am hoping that house prices will fall, fall, fall, back to the level where a normal person (making, say, $45,000 a year) could buy a small, decent house in a pleasant neighborhood with a fixed rate mortgage and be able to sleep well at night. What is your best guess as to where home prices may fall to?
Steven Pearlstein: We should all hope that housing prices fall back to a level where they make sense in terms of the cost of other goods and the incomes of the people who live in them. There are places now where prices have fallen as much as 40 percent, and others, like my street in Washington.DC, where they haven't fallen at all. So its hard to generalize. But it's fair to say that even if prices have fallen to reflect the oversupply and the increased cost of money and the lack of speculative buying, they still don't reflect the reality of an economic recession in many parts of the country. So it is unlikely that prices have bottomed just yet, although they may have stabilized temporarily in some places.
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Severna Park, Md.: Good morning Steven - first, thanks for chatting with us so often (although it is a shame there is so much to talk about).
In your article today, you actually mentioned that stock prices should rise and fall with corporate profits -- this is a point that I think has been lost in the discussion of bailouts, meltdowns and recessions. I know that emotions have always had a role on Wall Street but that corporate health was what drove the market. Lately though it seems that emotions are driving the market, and the decisions being made about how to handle this crisis. Do you agree, or has it always been like this, just exaggerated right now?
washingtonpost.com: Buckle Up -- We Haven't Reached Bottom Yet ( Post, Oct. 15)
Steven Pearlstein: Yes, there is always an emotional/psychological component to stock market pricing, and there are times when that is the dominant driver, as over the last several weeks and during the final year of the Internet bubble. But over longer terms, the fundamentals tend to reassert themselves, which means corporate profits and profit growth. Until two months ago, the stock market was simply not factoring in a serious enough recession and most analysts were much too optimistic in their profit projections, which is why you had these "bottom up" forecasts of double digit growth in the S&P 500 from some of the major investment houses for the coming year. For some reason, it just takes them a long time to get real about the macroeconomic outlook and actually have that reflected in their micro-projections.
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Fairfax, Va.: I understand the desire to help homeowners with unaffordable mortgages, but how can the government do it without rewarding bad behavior? Interest rates were at historic lows and anyone who bought on an interest- only ARM should have known better, of course rates would rise. Does moral hazard not apply here?
Should a mortgage buyout plan include a condition directing any potential profit from a future home-sale back into taxpayers hands?
Steven Pearlstein: As I've written before, we need sometimes to suspend our moral indignation and our concerns about moral hazard and do things that will make the rest of us better off. There are ways to "help" struggling homeowners without costing the government too much and without letting people totally off the hook. The best way I know is, where possible, refinance an adjustable mortgage into a fixed rate mortgage at 85 percent of the current market price of the property. That requires the original lender to take a writeoff of the principal, and it should require the homeowner to give the government a share of any profit he might make from the eventual sale of the property. And the economy benefits from not having a lot of people thrown out of their houses and a lot of forelcosed houses thrown on the market all at the same time. That was the logic behind the housing bill pushed through by the Democrats in Congress and signed by the President, and it should provide the template for what we do in this area going forward.
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Manassas, Va.: Mr. Pearlstein,
As someone not well versed in the stock market, perhaps you can clear up some of my confusion. Stocks are essentially ownership in the companies listed on that given board, correct? Thus, a drop in stocks, particularly a precipitous drop, reflects some guestimation that those companies are either about to or will suffer significant drops in profit and may even lose money, correct? So the market drops serve as an indicator of the broader potential damage to the economy? Perception of the market then is a leading indicator, even in the absence of hard, fast numbers that show lost profits? If that is the case, how can we be sure what portion of the perception may be manipulation by some?
Thanks!
Steven Pearlstein: I don't think there is much manipulation here, but there is panic. Your construction assumes more rationality than we have seen in recent weeks. Rationality will eventually reassert itself.
\ That said, stocks are a good leading indicator, and to some extent the recent panic reflected a belated realization by investors and traders that the economy, the global economy, was headed into a worse recession than they had believed.
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Alexandria, Va.: During the Panic of 1893, Wall Street bailed out the Fed by supplying it with $65 million in gold and floating a $100 million bond. A hundred years later, their patriotism has evaporated like so much summer dew and today's titans of finance scurry around to hide as cockroaches after the light has been turned on.
Steven Pearlstein: Hey, have you thought about becoming a business columnist. You can write!
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NW Washington, D.C.: Now I know who is getting the bailout money, it must be with all these hours you are working! I sincerely hope you are getting some rest. Back to back discussions, columns and TV can be tiring! Please don't have me drop names. Enjoy your work, but take good care of yourself.
Steven Pearlstein: As it happens, I'm off to Europe for a long planned vacation with my wife and some friends. Brining along a laptop, however, just in case. But thanks for your concern.
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Reston, Va.: Not to get too political here, but you hinted at something in today's column that I have been studying in the candidates' platforms: the need for investment in infrastructure as a means toward creating jobs. I don't know much about the Great Depression, but I believe that this could be vital to restoring the economy. Obama has put this concept forward (sort of a WPA for the modern era), but I can't find anything comparable from McCain. You may have already addressed this in a column that I missed (I try to read them all), but would you share your opinion of the candidates' current -- it seems to change -- postions on economic stimuli?
washingtonpost.com: Buckle Up -- We Haven't Reached Bottom Yet ( Post, Oct. 15)
Steven Pearlstein: McCain is so invested in fighting "pork" that is is very difficult for him to come out in favor of a big program of government infrastructure investment. What he should say, in my opinion, is something like this:
"We are in a terrible economic situation and we are going to have to use all the tools available to us, including stepped up infrastructure spending, to help put a floor under this economy. And who is better suited to make sure that that spending is done wisely, apolitically, done in a way that gets the greatest bang for the buck, than me, John McCain, the most credible fighter of political pork in the United States Congress. Because you know, and I know, that when governor X or senator Y or labor leader Z calls up and says, Mr. President, we need some of that public works money to build a bridge to nowhere, I'm going to be the guy that suggests that the person hang up the phone and forget this conversation ever took place, because otherwise I'm going to go right out there to the press room and tell the world what you just asked me to do."
And, you know, that would be a very powerful campaign theme. Unfortunately, McCain has taken the old Republican line that the way you revive the economy is throwing tax breaks at everyone -- households, businesses, investors. Frankly, those are pretty dumb ideas, given the circumstances. I'm a bit disappointed in that.
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Urbana, Ill.: Steven: Thanks for taking my question and also for your well reasoned articles on our economic crisis. My question is, with the global economy clearly entering recession won't there be additional material amounts of "toxic assets" on financial companies balance sheets from car loans, credit card debt and other types of home mortgages besides subprime? And how will the home market ever reach bottom in this environment? Are we going to need another $700 million to bailout the first tranche? I realize everyone wants to believe that we have turned the corner but all I see is more problems until at least 2010 and very likely for longer. My grandmother who lived and worked through the Great Depression called it whistling going past the graveyard. Thanks
Steven Pearlstein: It may well take more money and that money won't prevent a recession -- it will only prevent it from being worse than it needs to be because of the bad dynamics that can develop where selling begets selling, losses beget more losses and things spin out of control.
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College Park, Md.: Steven,
In your Tuesday article you said Paulson has been more nimble than his European counterparts in this crisis. However the plans to inject capital directly into banks for equity, add loan guarantees and increase deposit insurance seemed to follow similar moves in Europe, not lead them. Is that not true?
Thanks.
Steven Pearlstein: For some reason, people seem to have gotten all fixated on the fact that some other people suggested bank capital injections first and that Paulson has had to change his mind on that, so isn't he a fool.
First of all, the Americans were taking dramatic action to stem this crisis long before any other country, starting with Bear Stearns and continuing through the rescues of AIG, Fannie, Freddie, etc. The Fed was the first to set up the new facilities to pump liquidity into the banking system. Other countries followed our lead. There is a reason we were first, of course: a lot of the problems started here. But to suggest that we've had to be dragged kicking and screaming into government ownership and control of financial institutions is simply factually wrong. Remember, it was Paulson that took control of Fannie and Freddie against their will.
Second, if Paulson saw that the situation had quickly deteriorated and changed course in response to that, should we criticize him for being flexible or even admitting he was wrong? I thought those were qualities we want in a leader, like Franklin Roosevelt switching from wanting to balance the federal budget to ditching that for Keynsian stimulus.
Third, this is not Britain or Europe. We have many more banks and those banks are not as important in realm of financial intermediation as they are in Europe, so it is aquite possible that in Europe, recapitalizing banks is more important than it is here. In the case of Britain, for example, some of the biggest banks were in serious, immediate trouble and capital injections and nationalization were the ONLY answer. We don't have that situation, at least not yet. So the idea that there needs to be one solution for all countries is silly.
Final point: injecting small amounts of capital into hundreds of small banks in the US is, frankly, a waste of time and money, in my opinion. Nobody has explained yet why this is such a great idea. And surely nobody knows yet whether it is going to have much effect. This is still to be proven. So to argue that it is a FACT that is a better idea than reviving the market for mortgage-backed secufrities is just premature. That may turn out to be true, but we don't know that yet, do we?
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Evanston, Ill.: Hey Steven, what do you think about the capital gains tax exemption for the first half million dollars on real estate? This was instituted in 1997, precisely the time the housing market broke from its long term price trend. Do any politicians understand (save Ron Paul) the distorting effects of such tax policies?
Steven Pearlstein: DUMB.
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Dripping Springs, Tex.: Mr. Pearlstein and the Washington Post. Thank you for spending the time and money to answer questions directly through these chats. They are the best source of news anywhere! I've lost 80K in the last few months because I only took most of my money out of the market last year. Thank goodness I at listened "mostly" to your advice!
Steven Pearlstein: Thanks. Didn't know we had an audience down there in Dripping Springs.
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Rehoboth Beach, Del. : Every time I think I have come to a rudimentary understanding of the financial crisis and the interests of various financial groups in proposed solutions, it escapes me. Until I read your columns yesterday and today, I had assumed that the banks would have welcomed infusions of cash from the government whether in the form equity investmentsor the purchase of toxic debt. Apparently the banks are reluctant to do so. If, in the bankers' view government intervention is NOT the answer, what is? Wouldn't banks welcome infusions of new capital so they can go about the business of lending -- which is after all how they make a profit
Steven Pearlstein: The banks that don't need it don't see it as the solution, the ones who do will welcome it. And the ones who don't need it now may change their tune in a few months -- or not. The banks tended to like the idea of jump starting the market in mortgage backed securities so they could sell some of the bad stuff on their books at a discount, but less of a discount than was available from a market with no buyers. And that is an idea that is still worth trying, despite the objections from academic economists, the financial press and the left wing blogosphere.
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Bethesda, Md.: What if we, as a household, have been living within our means. Do we have anything to fear from a protracted recession?
Steven Pearlstein: Yeah, you could lose your job!
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Cleveland Park, Washington, D.C.: Steven,
You've proven over the past few months/year that you're a great analyst....and a great analyst should know what the weakness are in his or her opinion and analysis. So what are the possible and impossible surprises and possibly flawed assumptions that would make your prognostications in today's column wrong?
Steven Pearlstein: That's a very good question and I need to come up with a good answer, because I know there is one. But I'm not sure what it is.
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Richmond, Va. : Do you believe the smaller community banks that are sound should be forced to give the government an equity position "for the good of the country"?
Smaller Banks Resist Federal Cash Infusions ( Post, Oct. 15)
Can they legally be complelled to do this?
Steven Pearlstein: No, they won't be forced to do this and most won't. In theory, regulators could force them to by raising capital requirements. If that capital couldn't be raised privately, than the government might be the only source.
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Atlanta, Ga.: If the banks continue to resist lending to each other and the rest of us, what measures are available or should be considered to get this started?
Steven Pearlstein: The government could get into the direct lending business somehow, or find other channels to provide credit.
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Washington, D.C.: Back in June/July, you said you were going to be surprised if the market dropped below 10,000. Obviously, we've crossed that line. Do you think last week was the bottom of the readjustment -- or in your opinion -- are we likely to drop further as more people realize begin to see eye-to-eye with new realities?
Steven Pearlstein: Did I really say that. Wow. Too optimistic for once. As I said, 8,000 is the new bottom and it will be tested. Whether it holds or whether it falls farther, I can't really say. Depends on the economic situation and the market psychology, which I know is a big dodge.
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Denver, Colo.: I love your columns and these chats! I notice you often make the point that before this can really be fixed every day Americans have to cut back their standard of living and that seems to be an extremely important point that a lot leave out. Could you clarify what that means though? Is this simply going back to the way we were always advised to live i.e., keeping our cars for at least 7 years before we replace them, saving 10 percent or more of our income for a rainy day or retirement etc? Or are we talking about really serous cut backs like only eating meat once a week?
Steven Pearlstein: It means only spending 95 percent of your income and saving the rest, to put it in simple terms. How you adjust to that lifestyle is up to you and depends on what things you most value. But it is important to remember that we have a very high living standard and there are lots of things we can "cut out" while still being very comfortable and happy and satisfied, materially and in other ways.
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Steven Pearlstein: I'm afraid we're out of time for today. "See" you all in a couple of weeks. Cia0.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
October 14, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Big Government Ahead
BYLINE: By DAVID BROOKS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 29
LENGTH: 823 words
We're in the middle of a financial crisis, but most economists say there is a broader economic crisis still to come. The unemployment rate will shoot upward. Companies will go bankrupt. Commercial real estate values will decline. Credit card defaults will rise. The nonprofit sector will be hammered.
By the time the recession is in full force, Democrats will probably be running the government. Barack Obama will probably be in the White House. Democrats will have a comfortable majority in the House and will control between 56 and 60 seats in the Senate.
The party will inherit big deficits. David Leonhardt, my colleague at The Times, estimates that the deficit will sit at around $750 billion next year, or five percent of G.D.P. Democrats had promised to pay for new spending with compensatory cuts, but the economic crisis will dissolve pay-as-you-go vows. New federal spending will come in four streams.
First, there will be the bailouts. Once upon a time, there were concerns about moral hazard. But resistance to corporate bailouts is gone. If Bear Stearns and A.I.G. can get bailouts, then so can car companies, airlines and other corporations with direct links to Main Street.
Second, there will be more stimulus packages. The first stimulus package, passed early this year, was a failure because people spent only 10 percent to 20 percent of the rebate dollars and saved the rest. Martin Feldstein of Harvard calculates the package added $80 billion to the national debt while producing less than $20 billion in consumer spending.
Nonetheless, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promises another package, and it will pass.
Third, we're in for a Keynesian renaissance. The Fed has little room to stimulate the economy, so Democrats will use government outlays to boost consumption. Nouriel Roubini of New York University argues that the economy will need a $300 billion fiscal stimulus.
Obama has already promised a clean energy/jobs program that would cost $150 billion over 10 years. He's vowed $60 billion in infrastructure spending over the same period. He promises a range of tax credits -- $4,000 a year for college tuition, up to $3,000 for child care, $7,000 for a clean car, a mortgage tax credit.
Fourth, there will be tax cuts. On Monday, Obama promised new tax subsidies to small business, which could cost tens of billions. That's on top of his promise to cut taxes for 95 percent of American households. His tax plans aren't as irresponsible as John McCain's, but the Tax Policy Center still says they would reduce revenues by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.
Finally, there will be a health care plan. In 1960, health care consumed 5 percent of G.D.P. By 2025, it will consume 25 percent. In the face of these rising costs, Obama will spend billions more to widen coverage. Obama's plan has many virtues, but the cost-saving measures are chimerical.
When you add it all up, we're not talking about a deficit that is 5 percent of G.D.P., but something much, much, much larger.
The new situation will reopen old rifts in the Democratic Party. One the one side, liberals will argue (are already arguing) that it was deregulation and trickle-down economic policies that led us to this crisis. Fears of fiscal insolvency are overblown. Democrats should use their control of government and the economic crisis as a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make some overdue changes. Liberals will make a full-bore push for European-style economic policies.
On the other hand, the remaining moderates will argue that it was excess and debt that created this economic crisis. They will argue (are arguing) that it is perfectly legitimate to increase the deficit with stimulus programs during a recession, but that these programs need to be carefully targeted and should sunset as the crisis passes. The moderates will stress that the country still faces a ruinous insolvency crisis caused by entitlement burdens.
Obama will try to straddle the two camps -- he seems to sympathize with both sides -- but the liberals will win. Over the past decade, liberals have mounted a campaign against Robert Rubin-style economic policies, and they control the Congressional power centers. Even if he's so inclined, it's difficult for a president to overrule the committee chairmen of his own party. It is more difficult to do that when the president is a Washington novice and the chairmen are skilled political hands. It is most difficult when the president has no record of confronting his own party elders. It's completely impossible when the economy is in a steep recession, and an air of economic crisis pervades the nation.
What we're going to see, in short, is the Gingrich revolution in reverse and on steroids. There will be a big increase in spending and deficits. In normal times, moderates could have restrained the zeal on the left. In an economic crisis, not a chance. The over-reach is coming. The backlash is next.
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The New York Times
October 14, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Both Sides of the Aisle See More Regulation, and Not Just of Banks
BYLINE: By JACKIE CALMES
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 1540 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
For 30 years, the nation's political system has been tilted in favor of business deregulation and against new rules. But that is about to change, now that the government has been forced to intervene in the once high-flying financial industry to avert an economywide crash.
An expansion of the government's role in financial markets is certain: on Friday the Treasury Department updated its recommended reforms of the existing regulatory structure, which it will leave to the next president and Congress.
Congressional leaders and both presidential candidates already have their own, more far-reaching ideas, from further restricting executives' pay to remaking the entire regulatory structure so that it better supervises both traditional activities and newer ones like credit-default swaps that are unregulated.
But the pro-regulation climate will probably spill over into other sectors. That seems especially likely now that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve are pumping money into corporations of all types to shore up their capital and to finance day-to-day operations until credit markets recover, and with the auto industry separately getting billions in government assistance.
That will give impetus to those who seek new emission curbs and energy limits to address climate change; or who want health care mandates to expand insurance coverage and restrain costs; or who are calling for new safeguards for food, prescription drugs and toys from China and other less-regulated trading partners.
''We now have a collective anger, disgust, over our whole financial system and it's obvious we're going to get a regulatory backlash,'' said Robert E. Litan, an economist at the Brookings Institution who has studied financial and regulatory issues for decades. ''And we know it's going to come in a big way in 2009.''
Mr. Litan predicts a spillover effect to other industries because voters have the perception that ''big companies are animals and they need to be put in their cages.''
He added: ''The only open question going forward in this new era is, are we going to overdo it? Is the pendulum going to go completely over in the other direction?''
Whatever policies result, the political fallout of this renewed respect for government regulation is evident in the current election campaigns.
Democrats, who typically have been on the defensive in recent decades as the more pro-regulatory party, now are playing offense. Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, is leading his party's charge, blaming Republicans and their candidate, Senator John McCain, for the lax oversight that contributed to the financial crisis. Mr. Obama recently charged that Mr. McCain supported an economic theory ''that basically says that we can shred regulations and consumer protections.''
Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, who is unexpectedly fighting for re-election in Kentucky, is the target of a television ad that says, ''Wall Street and the big banks gave Mitch McConnell $4.4 million for his campaigns, and he fought for less regulation of Wall Street.''
Yet Republicans, led by Mr. McCain, are promising that they, too, will support toughened government regulations. ''I think we're going to have to see smarter regulation,'' Mr. McCain's chief economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, said in an interview.
Others are more cautious about the prospect for a major shift in political attitudes toward regulation. Sam Peltzman, a University of Chicago professor and free-market conservative who is widely considered the intellectual godfather of deregulation, said the outlook did not depend solely on who was elected. ''It depends on the economy itself,'' he said, adding that the government, under either party's control, would most likely not impose costly regulations on business in bad times.
For example, Mr. Peltzman noted that Senators McCain and Obama were both committed to action against climate change, through a mix of regulations and market forces. ''But I think it will be put off because of a slowdown in the economy,'' he said. As for health care, ''that depends a lot on how strong the Democrats are in Congress.''
There will be no putting off the action on re-regulating finance. Both of the presidential candidates and Congressional leaders like Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, the Senate banking committee chairman, and Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the House Financial Services Committee chairman, would go further than the Bush Treasury. They say they want to overhaul the current system next year to rid it of overlapping regulatory agencies, give other agencies new powers and perhaps create a new overseer for the whole system.
Financial institutions are likely to face tougher rules on maintaining capital and liquidity. Companies and instruments that currently are not regulated could be brought under the government's thumb; unregulated derivatives, hedge funds, mortgage brokers and credit-rating agencies all have been implicated in the current crisis.
Democrats and Mr. McCain talk of limiting executives' compensation, while Democrats would also give shareholders more say about who sits on corporate boards. Mr. Obama, if he is elected president, would join with the Congressional Democrats, who are likely to increase their majorities in the House and Senate, to revive their unsuccessful proposals to impose new penalties for predatory lending, including mortgage lending.
There are proposals for a new agency to protect consumers against a variety of financial abuses, involving mortgages, auto and student loans and credit cards. Credit card companies' marketing, billing and interest rates will very likely be reviewed. The insolvency at the insurance giant American International Group is reviving talk in Congress of federal regulation of the insurance industry, which prefers its current, mostly friendly patchwork system of state oversight.
The financial industry ''is not the only area where the deregulation ideology got completely out of hand,'' Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said in an interview. While Mr. Waxman is already holding hearings on the financial crisis and possible new regulations, he said, ''I'm looking forward to working on'' issues like climate change and health care insurance in coming years.
Mr. Waxman, who was first elected from California in 1974, said he did not believe the economic downturn would impede new regulations. ''Over the years I've heard industry after industry come in and say, 'We cannot survive economically if we have these regulations,' '' he said. Instead, he argued, studies showed that their compliance was less costly than predicted, and companies emerged more efficient and competitive.
While political stereotypes portray Democrats as favoring regulation and Republicans as deregulators, recent history is more complicated.
A Republican president, Richard M. Nixon, presided over one of the most active regulatory periods of the last half-century, working with the Democrats who controlled Congress in the early 1970s. His legacy includes the Environmental Protection Agency, the Consumer Product Safety Commission and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and, for a time, wage and price controls.
Later in that decade, a Democrat, President Jimmy Carter, began the deregulatory era that has continued with notable breaks to the present. While people in both parties associate his Republican successor, Ronald Reagan, with making regulation a dirty word politically, it was the Carter administration that instituted cost-benefit analyses for new regulations and deregulated the airline, railroad and trucking industries.
Mr. Reagan's record was more antiregulation than deregulatory. He and President George H. W. Bush fought Congressional Democrats' charges that they were not enforcing environmental regulations, among others.
In political campaigns, the Republicans made gains in part by painting Democrats as the party of big government. Studies showed, however, that the number of federal regulations spiked under the first President Bush, in part because of new rules for banks and thrift institutions after the savings and loan scandals of the late 1980s. Also, Mr. Bush signed into law a new Clean Air Act, a nutrition-labeling law and the landmark Americans With Disabilities Act, among others.
A conservative analyst, Bruce R. Bartlett, a Treasury official at the time, recalled that Mr. Bush was so angered by a 1991 magazine report headlined ''The Regulatory President'' that he ordered a moratorium on all regulations. Sixteen years later, the same magazine, National Journal, ran a similar article about Mr. Bush's son, calling George W. Bush ''the biggest regulator since the Nixon-Ford years.''
That record, however, mostly reflects the many new homeland-security regulations since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. In other areas, President Bush has moved more aggressively than his father and President Reagan away from enforcing existing regulations, choosing to rely on the financial services industry and manufacturers, among other groups, to regulate themselves.
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GRAPHIC: CHART: REGULATORY SPENDING, BY ADMINISTRATION: Spending on regulation grew markedly during the Bush administration, partly because of the increase in the bureaucracy from the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. (Sources: Veronique de Rugy and Melinda Warren, George Mason University, from government data)
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Obama Adds $60 Billion to Economic Plan; McCain Expected to Unveil Proposals Today
BYLINE: Robert Barnes and Shailagh Murray; Washington Post Staff Writers
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DATELINE: TOLEDO, Oct. 13
Democrat Barack Obama advocated an immediate and expensive economic assistance package Monday, while Republican John McCain readied a set of specific new proposals of his own, as the candidates entered a three-week sprint toward a presidential election that appears certain to turn on fixing the nation's faltering economy.
Obama consulted with Democratic congressional leaders and then proposed an additional $60 billion in tax breaks and other benefits for his economic stimulus plan. He and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said they favor a lame-duck session of Congress immediately after the Nov. 4 election to pass such a measure.
"We can't wait to help workers and families and communities who are struggling right now -- who don't know if their job or their retirement will be there tomorrow, who don't know if next week's paycheck will cover this month's bills," Obama said at a speech here.
McCain delayed announcing new proposals until Tuesday, and he used a speech in Virginia Beach to offer a gloomy assessment of the country's financial status, present himself as the tested leader ready to address problems, and to separate himself from the policies of President Bush.
In the face of new polls that showed a widening Obama lead, McCain instead bucked up a boisterous crowd of about 12,000 with a pledge to "never give up" the fight to lead the nation.
"Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator [Harry M.] Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections and concede defeat in Iraq," he said. "You know what they forgot? They forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them."
In delving more and more into the specifics of potential financial remedies, Obama and McCain are moving beyond trying to convince voters that he is best prepared to handle the crisis to offering specific proposals for relief, particularly to voters who think that "Main Street" was not addressed when Congress passed a plan to rescue Wall Street.
Polls show that the economy is by far the most important issue to voters. In a recent Washington Post-ABC News survey, 53 percent of respondents said it will be the decisive issue, as opposed to 11 percent who cited national security.
Having specific programs and proposals may also be crucial in Wednesday night's final presidential debate, in Hempstead, N.Y., which is slated to focus on domestic issues.
Obama largely avoided mention of McCain on Monday and instead focused on his new proposals.
"It's a plan that begins with one word that's on everyone's mind, and it's spelled J-O-B-S," he said.
The proposals include:
· A temporary tax credit for firms that create jobs in the United States.
· Penalty-free 401(k) and IRA withdrawals through 2009, to allow struggling families to withdraw up to 15 percent of their savings, up to $10,000. (Obama acknowledged that McCain had earlier proposed a similar but more limited plan.)
· A 90-day foreclosure moratorium for homeowners making "good-faith efforts" to keep up with their mortgage payments.
· A new entity created to lend to state and local governments, allowing for an effort similar to the liquidity assistance that the Federal Reserve recently extended to commercial banks.
· The temporary elimination of taxes on unemployment insurance benefits.
[McCain economic policy adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin told the Reuters news service Tuesday morning that the senator from Arizona would outline an estimated $52.5 billion in new proposals. Most of that would go to pay for a lower tax rate of 10 percent on money that seniors withdraw from IRAs and 401(k) retirement plans in 2009 and 2010, Holtz-Eakin said. McCain would also propose expanding the tax deduction for investment losses to $15,000 a year for the tax years 2008 and 2009, the aide told Reuters.]
Obama also raised the prospect of government aid to the automobile industry and more aggressive federal action to help banks and free up consumer credit. He has already outlined benefits such as a middle-class tax break -- delivered immediately in the form of a check -- and small-business incentives that would total about $115 billion over two years.
"CEOs got greedy. Politicians spent money they didn't have. Lenders tricked people into buying homes they couldn't afford, and some folks knew they couldn't afford them and bought them anyway," Obama said as the crowd of about 3,000 applauded. "We've lived through an era of easy money, in which we were allowed and even encouraged to spend without limits; to borrow instead of save."
He conceded: "For many folks, this was not a choice but a necessity. People have been forced to turn to credit cards and home-equity loans to keep up, just like our government has borrowed from China and other creditors to help pay its bills. But we now know how dangerous that can be. Once we get past the present emergency, which requires immediate new investments, we have to break that cycle of debt."
The Toledo speech coincided with a meeting of House Democratic leaders to discuss action on a stimulus bill when the chamber reconvenes, as planned, after the election.
Exiting what she called an economic summit, Pelosi told reporters that the nation is in "survival mode." Declining to outline a specific plan, she appeared with a group of liberal economists who endorsed a massive federal government investment in infrastructure and cash transfers to state and local governments that are facing shortfalls and layoffs. They also endorsed another 13-week extension of unemployment benefits.
Pelosi said the new proposals are a necessary counterpoint to the $700 billion rescue plan Congress passed for Wall Street.
"It seemed it was a largely Republican package with largely Democratic votes. If it's going to happen that way, we might as well write the bill ourselves and do the right thing for the American people," she said.
On a conference call with reporters, Holtz-Eakin called Obama's new ideas "hypocrisy."
He accused the Democrat of supporting tax increases that would more than offset the tax credit he proposed Monday. And he said Monday's proposals would "hardly undo" the damage to the economy created by Obama's plan to boost the top marginal income tax rates.
"He pretends to offer a, quote, 'rescue,' " he said of Obama. "But the rescue is simply from the threat of his own policies."
McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said it was always the campaign's intention to devote Monday's speech to "John McCain's view of this race and what the stakes are."
In his address, McCain frankly acknowledged that he is behind in polls but said he has been counted out before.
McCain portrayed himself as the pugnacious underdog. He revived his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention and used a version of the word "fight" at least 17 times.
"What America needs in this hour is a fighter, someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people," he said. "I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life."
He added: "There are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."
He also sought to put light between himself and the current occupant of the White House. The next president "will need experience, courage, judgment and a bold plan of action to take this country in a new direction," McCain said. "We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change."
The settings for Monday's events told much about the campaign's state of play. McCain was on the stump in Virginia -- where no Democratic presidential candidate has won since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964 -- and North Carolina, which has a 24-year streak of supporting Republican White House candidates. Polls show Obama ahead in the Old Dominion and running close in the Tar Heel State.
Obama, meanwhile, continued his habit of conducting his debate preparations in red states. He readied for the first debate in Florida and the second in North Carolina and is now in Ohio -- all states that voted for Bush in 2004.
Staff writers Michael D. Shear, traveling with McCain, and Paul Kane in Washington contributed to this report.
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IMAGE; By Joe Raedle -- Getty Images; Barack Obama talks to Ohio residents at the SeaGate Convention Centre in Toledo, where he announced his new proposals for the economy.
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October 14, 2008 Tuesday
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Time to Be Outward Bound;
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BYLINE: Eugene Robinson
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Since George W. Bush became president, the Republican Party has presided over massive, out-of-control government spending, converted a federal budget surplus into a half-trillion-dollar deficit, and looked the other way while Wall Street's greed and stupidity turned the hallowed free market into scorched earth. Now the party has to watch as a Republican president orchestrates the biggest government intervention in the workings of the private sector since the New Deal.
Can any Republican candidate claim with a straight face to represent the party of small government? For that matter, can any Republican candidate plausibly explain what the party is supposed to stand for these days?
It's pathetic to hear right-wing talk radio blowhards try to associate Barack Obama with "radical" or "socialist" views when a Republican administration is tossing aside "Atlas Shrugged" and speed-reading "Das Kapital."
The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it will make unlimited quantities of dollars available for currency swaps with the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, as these institutions scramble to keep major commercial banks from failing -- and potentially taking U.S. banks with them. None of Bush's Cabinet members could be heard sniffing about the irrelevance of effete "Old Europe."
This attitude adjustment is necessary, mind you. The question isn't whether some kind of drastic, frankly socialistic measures are needed to save the American economy but which measures -- buying up toxic mortgage-based investments (as the White House said it would do), buying up the troubled mortgages themselves (as John McCain wants to do), or pouring money into selected banks and taking part ownership (as the White House now says it will do). Sitting back and letting the dire situation correct itself is not an option, because the market's phoenix-like solution begins with self-immolation.
Politically, though, there is at least some justice in the fact that a Republican president has to deal with this Republican-made crisis. That little piece of irony isn't worth $700 billion, but so far it's all we're getting.
After eight years of the Bush administration, the Republican Party -- to put it bluntly -- is a mess and a fraud.
There is an intellectual case to be made for the economic philosophy that the party purports to represent. I disagree with it strongly, but I respect its integrity -- in a way that this administration and the Republican leadership in Congress clearly did not.
The Republican Party said it believed in free and unfettered competition, but it picked winners and losers through a system of crony capitalism. All it takes to make my point is a name: Jack Abramoff.
The Bush tax cuts, which heavily favored the wealthy, showed that the president and his allies in Congress didn't believe in progressive taxation. I think that's outrageous, but the administration goes further and actually seems to prefer a regressive tax scheme. That's the only explanation I can think of for why hedge fund managers making hundreds of millions of dollars a year pay taxes at a lower rate than their chauffeurs.
Now that it's election time, the party -- as usual -- is trying to convince Americans that it stands on the side of the little guy. Sarah Palin has been trotted out to convince everyone that the party cares deeply about the eternal roster of cultural issues -- God, guns, gays, abortion, etc. If McCain and Palin were elected, the party would doubtless return these issues to the storage locker until the next election, at which point they would be dusted off once more.
Oh, and isn't the Republican Party supposed to stand foursquare against intrusions on privacy? Then why were Republicans so unmoved when it was revealed that the Bush administration had been conducting unprecedented surveillance of Americans' private electronic communications?
When Ronald Reagan was president, I had a sense of what ideas and principles his party stood for. When Newt Gingrich and his "Contract With America" brigade took Washington by storm in 1994, I knew what they believed -- loopy though it was -- and what they hoped to accomplish. I defy anyone to give a coherent explanation of what today's Republican Party, under George Bush and now John McCain, wants to do except perpetuate itself in power.
When a political party reaches the point of lurching incoherence, the most effective cure is a good, long spell in the wilderness. Americans should help Republicans out by sending them home to get their act together.
The writer will answer questions at 1 p.m. today at http://www.washingtonpost.com. His e-mail address is eugenerobinson@washpost.com
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October 14, 2008 Tuesday
Regional Edition
McCain Attack Ads Called Inevitable -- And Ineffective
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz; Washington Post Staff Writer
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Joe Trippi, the veteran Democratic strategist, said there's a reason John McCain's attack ads don't seem to be hurting Barack Obama.
"I don't think they matter hardly at all," Trippi, who worked for John Edwards during the primaries, said of both sides' commercials. "Most people are looking at the financial crisis, looking at their 401(k)s, and in between they're seeing the two candidates beat the living daylights out of each other and rolling their eyes."
Alex Castellanos, the veteran Republican strategist, said Obama's image is hard to tarnish because voters have come to know the senator from Illinois.
"They've seen him for a year and a half in debates," said Castellanos, who worked for Mitt Romney in the primaries. "They've been barraged with television. To come up now and say, 'Don't believe your lying eyes -- this candidate is not who you think he is,' is a very tough challenge."
As the presidential candidates open their war chests in the campaign's final stretch -- spending a combined $28 million on television ads in the week that ended Oct. 4 -- political pros are mixed on whether they're getting their money's worth. Obama, who faces no fundraising restrictions because he declined to accept public financing, is outspending the senator from Arizona on the air by a 2 to 1 margin.
But some analysts say neither side's spots are changing the campaign dialogue. This has been particularly true, analysts say, during the recent financial crisis that has at times overwhelmed the campaign itself.
"This race is not being moved by television advertising, with the fundamental factors so much to the advantage of the Democrats," said Ken Goldstein, who directs the University of Wisconsin's advertising project. "It's just adding to the fog of information out there. . . . Obama's huge spending makes McCain have to scream even louder to get his message heard."
Both campaigns are putting a handful of ads into heavy rotation, while barely airing others that are designed to generate cable news coverage and Internet traffic.
For the two weeks that ended last Friday, Obama's ads aired 66,169 times and McCain's 32,027, said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group. "Obama's just turning up the volume to a level that's never been seen before," he said.
McCain's most frequent 30-second spot -- airing 8,490 times -- accuses Obama of being "mum on the market crisis" and calls him "a risk your family can't afford." In second place, airing 7,904 times, is an ad that calls Obama "dishonorable" for saying that U.S. troops in Afghanistan were "just air-raiding villages and killing civilians." In fact, Obama said he wanted to avoid such occurrences, which have been confirmed by the Pentagon.
Both commercials were made in partnership with the Republican National Committee, which can underwrite a bigger rollout. But under federal rules, such hybrid ads must be based on issues and cannot feature a candidate asking for support.
"All you can do is basically run a negative campaign" in such hybrid ads, said Tad Devine, a top strategist for Sen. John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign, which faced a similar dilemma. "You have McCain, whose content is limited, versus Obama, who can say whatever he wants."
One example is a hybrid ad released Friday that assails Obama for his relationship with former radical William Ayers but then abruptly switches to an attack on liberal Democrats in Congress over the mortgage meltdown.
McCain has put out a number of phantom ads, such as one charging that Obama's career was "born of the corrupt Chicago political machine" and invoking convicted businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko. That ad, which drew considerable media coverage, aired 11 times. Another spot begins: "Who is Barack Obama? The National Journal says he's the Senate's most liberal. How extreme." It aired twice.
Obama's most frequently aired commercials were a pair of health-care spots, which were seen 32,990 times. One notes that McCain "says that he's going to give you a $5,000 tax credit. What he doesn't tell you is that he's going to tax your employer-based health-care benefits, for the first time ever." Flush with cash, Obama is running a two-minute spot about his economic plan.
Obama also produced a commercial last week accusing McCain of "smears" in his advertising, but there is no record of it having run. McCain's ad the same day, accusing Obama of having "lied" in his claims, aired twice.
While McCain's advertising is almost 100 percent negative and Obama's is one-third negative, those figures are somewhat misleading. Obama's spending is so great, said Tracey, that he is matching the volume of McCain's negative ads while churning out even more spots of the positive variety.
Strategists could think of only two commercials this year that had a significant impact on the campaign dialogue. One was Hillary Rodham Clinton's "3 a.m." ad, which questioned Obama's readiness to handle an emergency phone call, and the other was McCain's spot likening Obama to Paris Hilton, which triggered a debate over the celebrity aspects of his candidacy.
But while positive spots are often deemed less newsworthy, a sustained campaign can yield results over time. Devine said Obama's lead in battleground states where he has advertised heavily is greater than in states where he has been on the air less often. In one recent ad, Obama talks about the values instilled by his mother and grandparents.
"Obama has told his bio, a lot of his story," Castellanos says. "It's especially important for the new guy that people don't know. With McCain, it's harder to fill up a glass that's already full."
Even if McCain and the RNC were to boost spending on the ad involving Obama and Ayers, several analysts doubted it would be effective during the current financial crisis.
"It's very hard for people to care about old hippie terrorists when the world is collapsing around them," Tracey said.
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October 14, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
GOP Officials Assail Community Group;
McCain Campaign Accuses ACORN of Voter Fraud, Highlights Ties to Obama
BYLINE: Steven A. Holmes and Mary Pat Flaherty; Washington Post Staff Writers
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ACORN, a community organizing group that has operated for nearly 40 years outside the national spotlight, suddenly finds itself a central issue in the presidential campaign.
Republican officials and advisers to Sen. John McCain have sought to paint the group -- which focuses on low-income housing, voter registration, the minimum wage and other issues -- as radical and have accused it of playing a role in the economic crisis and fomenting voter fraud. At the same time, the McCain campaign has sought to tie the group closely to Sen. Barack Obama.
The charges have come repeatedly, in news releases, conference calls to reporters and remarks on the campaign trail.
Republican National Committee spokesman Danny Diaz called ACORN a "quasi-criminal group" last week during one of a series of news conferences, charging that the group was committing fraud during its voter-registration drives. "We don't do that lightly," RNC chief counsel Sean Cairncross said.
All this leaves leaders of ACORN -- formally known as the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now -- agape.
"It's pretty shocking that anyone would say such a thing," Bertha Lewis, interim chief organizer for National ACORN, said of Diaz's assertion. "It's a lie, it's irresponsible, and I'm really disappointed that they would say such a thing. What's the meaning of 'quasi-criminal' anyway?"
Cairncross accused ACORN of engaging in a "systematic effort to undermine the election process" through its voter-registration drives. Media reports have cited problems in 12 states, in which registration cards submitted by ACORN were incomplete or had false or duplicate names or were turned in without a person's knowledge.
Much of the political attention has stemmed from a program in Nevada, where ACORN hired 59 inmates in a work program to help register voters. The state attorney general halted the program. Nevada authorities last week seized records from ACORN's Las Vegas office after accusing the group of submitting fraudulent registration forms, which included names of players for the Dallas Cowboys.
State officials in North Carolina and county officials in Missouri are also investigating registrations submitted by ACORN.
ACORN has helped register 1.3 million voters in 21 states and routinely notifies local officials of incomplete or suspicious registration cards, Lewis said in a recent interview. She said local election officials sometimes use those cards to "come back weeks or months later and accuse us of deliberately turning in phony cards."
In a statement, Lewis said that "groups threatened by our historic success" have gone after ACORN because of whom the group registers: As many as 70 percent of the new voters are minorities, and half are younger than 30.
The McCain campaign also has sought to link ACORN to the financial crisis. One of the campaign's online ads says the Chicago chapter of the group was engaged in "bullying banks" to issue "risky" mortgages -- "the same type of loans that caused the financial crisis we're in today," the ad's narrator says.
ACORN officials acknowledge that the group lobbied for passage of the Community Reinvestment Act in 1977, which required banks to try to increase lending to low-income home buyers. The group also urged banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to loosen requirements on mortgages available to low-income applicants.
But ACORN officials, supported by several economists, say it is absurd to blame the crisis on the Community Reinvestment Act, which has been in place for decades. They also note that much of the subprime lending came from investment banks not under the act's jurisdiction. In fact, they say, they have been pressuring federal regulators since 1999 to crack down on many of the institutions that provided subprime loans.
"ACORN, more than any other group, pleaded with regulators . . . to please, please regulate these institutions because they were stealing market share from banks that were making safe loans and inflating housing prices," said Mike Shea, executive director of ACORN Housing, an arm of the group that focuses on building low- and moderate-income housing.
ACORN fired back yesterday at the McCain campaign, releasing a 2006 photo of the Arizona senator delivering the keynote speech at a pro-immigration rally in Miami that the group sponsored. "Maybe it is out of desperation that Senator McCain has forgotten that he was for ACORN before he was against ACORN," Lewis said in a news release.
In the interview, Lewis said the attacks are aimed at discrediting not only ACORN but also Obama, noting that the group is what Obama boasts of once being -- a community organizer.
"Look, he's got a funny name, and he started out in a funny profession that is always challenging the status quo," she said.
Republicans have often pointed to links between ACORN and Obama. The McCain campaign has asserted that Obama once represented ACORN in court and did work for it and that it is an arm of his campaign, with Obama trying to conceal an $800,000 payment to the organization for campaign work.
Obama's presidential campaign was endorsed by ACORN's political action committee. And Obama campaign officials acknowledged paying a group affiliated with ACORN more than $800,000 to conduct get-out-the-vote operations during the Democratic primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. The campaign said $80,000 of that money went directly to ACORN.
Campaign officials also said the payment was originally reported to the Federal Election Commission as going toward "staging, sound and lighting" as part of advance work. Officials said that the report was the result of a clerical error and that the campaign later filed amended forms.
Early in Obama's career, he took part in training sessions for ACORN staff members in Chicago, according to campaign and ACORN officials. And in 1995, Obama was one of three lawyers from the law firm of Miner, Barnhill and Galland assigned to represent a coalition of organizations suing the state of Illinois over failure to implement the National Voter Registration Act, or the motor-voter law. The groups included ACORN, the League of Women Voters and the U.S. Justice Department.
The national attention comes at a time when ACORN is trying to dig itself out of an internal scandal.
Its founder, Wade Rathke, resigned after it was alleged that his brother Dale had embezzled nearly $1 million from the organization in 1999 and 2000 through faulty credit card charges. That prompted several foundations providing funding for ACORN to halt making grants until they were assured the organization had cleaned up its operations.
ACORN's board of directors hired an outside auditing firm and the law firm of Sidley Austin -- Barack and Michelle Obama's old law firm -- to advise it.
"Once it was revealed, the board acted swiftly," Lewis said. "They said they wanted a financial review, top to bottom, of our system."
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October 14, 2008 Tuesday 1:00 PM EST
Station Break;
Pop Culture and More
BYLINE: Paul Farhi, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
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HIGHLIGHT: Need advice about what to do with your investments during this turbulent time? In that case, you should probably avoid Paul Farhi's weekly chat about TV, radio, advertising and all things popular culture, where it's always a bull market.
Need advice about what to do with your investments during this turbulent time? In that case, you should probably avoid Paul Farhi's weekly chat about TV, radio, advertising and all things popular culture, where it's always a bull market.
This week: Rating the presidential candidate impersonators. Join Farhi was online Tuesday, Oct. 14, at 1 p.m. ET to discuss this and much more of whatever's on the political and pop culture landscape.
A transcript follows.
Farhi is a reporter in The Post's Style section, writing about media and popular culture. He's been watching TV and listening to the radio since "The Monkees" were in first run and Adam West was a star. Born in Brooklyn and raised in Los Angeles, Farhi had brief stints in the movie business (as an usher at the Picwood Theater), and in the auto industry (rental car lot guy) before devoting himself full-time to word processing. His car has 15 radio pre-sets and his cable system has 500 channels. He vows to use all of them for good instead of evil.
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Paul Farhi: Greetings, all, and welcome back....Last week's very, shall we say, "eclectic" chat, got me to thinking about our other, extremely visible candidate impersonations--Fred Armisen as Obama and Darrell Hammond as McCain. I'll reserve my own judgement here while soliciting yours. Getting the job done or no? As you may recall, there was a bit of a flap about Armisen, who is of Caucasian and Asian descent, playing a candidate who is of black and white parentage. But I'm not talking about that--I'm talking about the quality(ies) of the impressions themselves. Any thoughts out there?
Meanwhile, I am also pleased to report that we here in the Mainstream Media are giving equal time to happy-face floor trader photos (at least we did yesterday, on a 900-plus point gain in the stock market) as we have been giving to sad-face floor trader photos. That's what we journalists like to call balance!
Of course, if the economic news goes to heck again, look for more sad-face stuff.
Let's go to the phones...
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washingtonpost.com: Stock Market Trader
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McPherson: Paul: I listen to WTOP a lot and hear ads from Chris Core pushing everything from windows to body scans. Who is Chris Core? I'm sure he has creditability with some, but he's pushing so many different products that I tune out when his commercials run. Love the chats!
Paul Farhi: Chris Core is a longtime local radio talk-show host who has, presumably, built up some credibility and a loyal following in his 30-plus years as a local radio talk-show host. Of course, he built up that credibility and presumed loyal following on a station OTHER than WTOP (WMAL, to be exact). But who's quibbling?
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washingtonpost.com: Did 'SNL' Go Beyond the Pale With Fauxbama? ( Post, Feb. 29)
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Ballston Dude: Why do reporters walk toward the camera when they start a segment?
They even walk out of a corner to the camera.
Paul Farhi: I think because it shows "dynamism," the idea that the news is "always on the move" and so are the reporters who bring it to you. It also probably shows that the story the reporter is reporting is "static"--i.e., boring--and the reporter has to become "dynamic" to create the illusion that something is happening. Even if it isn't.
Hey, it's TV.
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washingtonpost.com: Radio Ratings Device Flawed, Stations Say ( Post, Oct. 1)
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People Meters: Funny, isn't it? Every time a more precise methodology is employed, those being measured protest because they can't defend thirty (seventy?) years of lying to their advertisers about the size of their audiences.
I've been selling advertising for fifteen years, across all kinds of electronic and print media, and the only thing advertisers care about is being told the truth about delivery so they can plan their campaigns.
Radio sales reps in particular have been exaggerating their numbers for years, because radio has always been the most difficult to measure vs. print circulation or even cable subscribers. Gonna be a tough budget season for some folks at Clear Channel...
Paul Farhi: The diary method for collecting radio ratings has always seemed like the most slipshod, throw-a-dart means of measuring an audience ever (for those unfamiliar: Radio ratings have been collected for decades by recruiting sample audiences, handing them diaries, and telling them to write down what they listened to over the course of a week). I mean, how many buttons did you press in the car on the way to work today? And you're going to remember what you listened to several days later? No way. And radio stations and advertisers know it. But: the diary method was the only game in town. Arbitron is a monopoly, and there wasn't a better way to do it. Now there is--the people meter, which electronically/automatically records all your button-popping ways. Arbitron DOES need to ensure that it's sample is fair, but there's no doubt that it's theoretically a better way to end the fiction that radio audiences were being fairly measured.
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SNL Impersonations: Darrell Hammond is the very definition of versatile. He has nailed Clinton, Gore, Cheney and now McCain. His performance on Thursday night's special was spot-on, particularly the vacant roaming of the stage while Obama spoke (and his referring to Obama as "pee pants over there" -- oh my...).
Paul Farhi: Thought that was hilarious, too. Has Armisen (or really the SNL writers) gotten a similar comedic take on Obama? I can't think of a "defining" joke about him yet...
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"Why do reporters walk toward the camera when they start a segment? ": Remember Eric Idle in The Rutles? The truck kept speeding up as he was trying to walk towards the camera...
Paul Farhi: No, don't remember that because I've never seen The Rutles, which is one of those movies that you (meaning "I") want to see but have not. Incidentally--and I'm almost ashamed to admit this--I saw "Casablanca" from start to finish for the first time a few weeks ago. I've seen scenes from it for years and years, of course, so I feel like I "know" it. But I'd never seen the whole thing beginning to end.
Pretty good movie. You really ought to check it out.
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Armisen: Without having spent much (okay, any) time watching him, I'd guess that Armisen is exactly half-right to portray Obama. On the other hand, he's around 65 percent right to portray Tiger Woods.
Paul Farhi: No need for him to play Tiger. Tim Meadows did a wonderful job on him several years ago ("As I was walking down the last fairway at the Master, I was thinking 'Ka-ching, ka-ching'!"). Just bring Tim back (SNL does that from time to time, you know--ex-cast member Chris Parnell was on as Tom Brokaw last week).
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Harrisburg, PA: What up, P-Far?
At your last chat, a poster said something like all cop shows are right-wing. I guess they haven't seen "Law and Order" lately; and though "The Wire" isn't really a 'cop show' (even though it kinda sorta is), David Simon is as big a left-winger as John Milius is for the right (maybe if Walter got involved in "American Carol", it would actually be decent. More violent, but decent).
Paul Farhi: Well, I don't think all cop shows are right wing. Because "right wing" equals arresting people and solving crimes? Don't think so. This is kind of conservative propaganda--the idea that conservatives "own" law and order issues, patriotism, defense, etc. Liberals can hold their own on those issues, too.
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Are the People Meters minute-by-minute?: I'd love to see the breakdowns on a minute-by-minute basis...you know, when the driver hits all the buttons during the five-minute commercial breaks. You could take a station from 60 to Zero if you timed it right.
Paul Farhi: I'm not sure about this, but I believe the meter does show minute-by-minute behavior. And I would bet that radio is far more subject to channel surfing than TV. When you don't like a song, or hear a commercial, you (meaning "I") tend to skeddaddle a lot faster than when you're jumping around with the TV remote. In any case, I channel surf a lot slower with TV than I do with radio.
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washingtonpost.com: The Rutles: I Must Be In Love ( YouTube)
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A Defining Obama Joke: I'd say they haven't, but to be fair he is very hard to pin down. Armesen has gotten a lot better at capturing his speaking cadence, but that's about it.
My suggestion to them -- Sen. Obama has a habit of prefacing his remarks by saying something along the lines of "As I have said repeatedly...", no matter the topic at hand. The writers could have some fun with that, perhaps..
Paul Farhi: Not bad. Incidentally, a person related to me by childbirth suggests that the defining phrase for Obama is "Well, look..." with "look" rendered in a very clipped manner. Try it. You might impress your friends (or not).
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SNL impersonations: Armisen's Obama is good with the delivery, but the writing needs to be sharper. Sudeikis' Biden was nearly spot-on; and Hammond really does nail McCain.
I have to second your take on Hartmann's Stockdale; a truly gifted performer, but it was just too easy (Dennis Miller once said a pretty smart thing about Stockdale- how he was an all-around good man who committed the one unpardonable sin- being bad on TV)
Paul Farhi: Yes, the one thing--the only thing--that anyone remembers/knows about Stockdale was his weird intro at the veep debate in '92, perhaps because of Hartman's parody. Stockdale had a long and distinguished military career, but no one remembers that.
And Sudeiki's Biden, I thought, was less of an impersonation as an impression. Slightly, but crucially different: He really didn't try to mimic Biden's tone or mannerisms, but he did capture his energy and rhetoric very well. And the writing was very sharp.
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"I've never seen The Rutles": In the interest of fairness, you should have disclosed this fact to us readers YEARS ago. I am out of here, pal.
I feel so...used.
Paul Farhi: How...how...can I ever make it up to you? I'm sorry, I swear. Oh, God, I'm sorry...
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Silver Spring, Md.:"And you're going to remember what you listened to several days later? No way."
I was an Arbitron listener a few years back, and I was expressly told to keep the diary on a daily basis so I would remember.
That's why they call it a diary, eh?
Paul Farhi: Well, "expressly told" isn't "I did as instructed." I mean, YOU may have, but what about all the other folks in the sample? And even if you did, there's no way you could have remembered exactly what you listened to even a few hours later. Sorry, diaries are lame.
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Silver Spring, Md.: The FOX Football robot hitting baseballs on Sunday got a bit annoying. He did it after every commercial break during both FOX games. I get it baseball is also on FOX, but way too much batting robot. I think they should have him doing the dances like the ones on the mortgage pop-up ads. By the way if we are in such a financial crisis why are those people still doing their gigs?
Paul Farhi: The aforementioned relative-by-childbirth and I were analyzing the robot's swing. Pretty nice, we agreed, but he was throwing the ball up in a weird way, and his legs were positioned a bit oddly.
And, yes, this IS what guys talk about while watching the game.
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Debate Drinking Game: I'd rather drink a shot for every "Well, look" than for every "my friends."
Of course, watching these debates is bad for my liver anyway.
Paul Farhi: I have a theory about drinking games: They don't really exist. Or like "key parties" in the 1970s, they barely existed, but their existence has taken on exaggerated proportions.
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Silver Spring, Md.:"SNL does that from time to time, you know -- ex-cast member Chris Parnell was on as Tom Brokaw last week."
Yes, and there was that Tina Fey chick too.
Paul Farhi: Ah. Of course. Or as Mike Meyers would say as Wayne: "Chahh!"
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Annandale, Va.: The problem with Armisen's Obama impression is that while he may look like Obama, he sounds like Jimmy Carter. He really needs to work on the voice. Plus, he does the same quick, choppy sentence delivery over and over. He should work on finding more Obama quirks to exaggerate.
Paul Farhi: Interesting. Never thought of the Carter parallel, but I will now.
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Cleveland Park, Washington, D.C.: Of course, SNL didn't always care about creating a credible physical representation. Remember Chevy Chase doing Gerald Ford (and Chase didn't even try to do a vocal impression either) or Dan Ackroyd (with moustache) doing Jimmy Carter?
It's like a editorial cartoon where they have to label the characters because the artist can't draw decent likenesses. As long as the joke is good, it's okay.
Paul Farhi: Yes! That's almost the definition of a successful impression--you don't even care if the actor/actress looks and sounds like the person being imitated if the joke is good enough. Sudeikis' Biden qualifies here as well.
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SNL Alums: And let's not forget "William Murray", who asked a great question about his forever doomed Cubs on Thursday night's special.
Paul Farhi: Chahhh II.
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SNL -- Biden/Palin: Jason Sudeikis got Biden's bellow down. But Fey is almost TOO good as Palin; it almost humanizes her. Best SNL veep impression: Michael J. Fox as a befuddled Dan Quayle
Paul Farhi: Wow, don't remember Fox-as-Quayle, although the casting is near perfect.
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SNL casting: I think it was mentioned in Tom Shales's book that SNL just doesn't really do right by black actors (and no, it wasn't Eddie Murphy who said it); Garret Morris had a tough time of it, Murphy is in the same boat as Norm McDonald when it comes to Lorne's rolodex, and while Chris Rock used SNL as a springboard, Damon Wayans had to make his own show in order to get seen (getting fired mid-sketch didn't help his situation). I guess Stewie Griffin was right in wondering if Ellen Cleghorn will ever get a good vehicle.
Paul Farhi: Morris was VERY bitter in Shales book, "Live from New York," (highly recommended). But I think the general point is accurate: For whatever reason, SNL has not had a lot of great black performers. Murphy broke out, of course, but Rock had to rebuild himself via stand-up after appearing on the show. The list of others is pretty short...
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Bethesda, Md.:"I have a theory about drinking games: They don't really exist."
Really?! I assume you must have gone to college. My small, East Coast college had a few drinking games that nearly everyone played, and I had friends at large, midwestern universities that had different sets of games, but the ultimate purpose was, of course, the same.
Or are you just referring to things like debate-specific games? (Actually, I'm pretty sure we played those in college too...)
Paul Farhi: Well, college, sure... I guess what I mean is, the concept has been generalized into a cliche. Anytime anyone uses a phrase repeatedly, someone has to say, "That's going to be in the drinking game." For the sake of everyone's liver, I hope that there are far fewer drinking games in reality than there are in the cliches.
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SNL Presidential Impressions: We must give a shout out to Dana Carvey for his yeoman work in the '92 campaign, doing a terrific President George HW Bush and spot-on Ross Perot, as well as a good Jerry Brown in the primary season.
Also, current senatorial candidate Al Franken did a very funny Paul Tsongas that season. Good times!
Paul Farhi: Carvey, of course, became legendary for his GHWB. Wonder if Armisen will have a similar long-running annuity for his Obama is Obama wins on Nov. 4.
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washingtonpost.com: Live From New York ( Salon, Oct. 14)
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I've never seen The Rutles: Yes, you really should have this in your bio. I mean, they advertise your chat as being about Popular Culture.
I HOPE you've at least seen Spinal Tap. Any chance you saw "Bad News," a fake band documentary by those guys who did "The Young Ones" on MTV?
Paul Farhi:"Spinal Tap"? You're asking me if I've seen "Spinal Tap"?
Punk.
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Upper Peninusla, Mich.: Hi Paul, Not that you asked, but here's the top ten SNL impersonations of presidents and Candidates.
10-Amy Poehler: Dennis Kucinich 9- Phil Hartman: Ronald Reagan 8- Dana Carvey: H Ross Perot 7- Dan Akroyd: Richard Nixon 6- Amy Poehler: Hillary Clinton 5- Darrell Hammond: Bill Clinton 4- Tina Fey: Sarah Palin (yeah, VP Candidate, so what?) 3- Will Ferrell: George Bush (this one) 2- Chevey Chase: Gerald Ford 1- Dana Carvey: George "Poppy" Bush
Paul Farhi: Interestingly, no one has ever memorably done Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale (perhaps too boring), Gerry Ferraro, and other recent major candidates.
And, a good list, with one major omission: Darrell Hammond as Al Gore ("Under mah plan..." "Lock box...")
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St John's, Newfoundland: Waitaminute!
"Biden" was "Floyd" (from 30 Rock)? Man, I did NOT get that at all. Is that a good sign?
I haven't watched SNL in YEARS (it is on at 1 a.m. here), but just watched 30 Rock on DVD. (Great show, btw).
Paul Farhi: It's on at 1 a.m.? Newfoundland is, like, so foreign....
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SNL and black performers: The problem may come from a lack of black writers -- or, at least, writers who can figure out how best to work with the black cast members' talents. This was a theme in "Studio 60" (okay, so it wasn't Sorkin's best, but I kind of liked it!), where D.L. Hughley's character struggled with it, and used his clout as a longtime star of the fake show to bring on some new writers to work mostly with him.
Paul Farhi: Quite possibly true, but...But performers on SNL write their own material, too. Of course, they don't get to greenlight their own material...
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Right Wing Shows: As I think about the question, it seems to me that the most right-wing show would be "The Sopranos": they operate in unregulated markets of their own making, they mete out swift justice, and the only government officials you see are corrupt.
Of course, that last one might just be a Jersey thing...
Paul Farhi: Ohmigosh--"The Sopranos" as right-wing icon. Never thought of it that way.
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Cleveland Park, Washington, D.C.: re: SNL impressions
Norm MacDonald and Dan Ackroyd both did very good Bob Dole impressions. And Al Franken's Pat Robertson impression wasn't bad either.
Paul Farhi: Yes. Loved MacDonald's take on Dole for the "Real World" spoof: "That's Bob Dole's peanut butter. You know it, I know it, and the American people know it."
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There are some white comics not happy with SNL.: Just ask Jay Mohr. He's very bitter about his experience there.
Paul Farhi: If you read Shales' book, you'll find that there are MANY comedians who were unhappy with their time on the show (Mohr, Harry Shearer, Janeane Garofalo, etc.). It's a very competitive environment, with an obvious--and perhaps justified--star system. Some people are bound to be disappointed.
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Washinton, D.C.: My wife once received an Arbitron radio diary. After looking at it, she handed it to me and told me to do what I wanted with it. I did, and I listened for two weeks to the only D.C. radio station owned by someone that I had personally met. Since I was involved once in the distant past with the business side of an educational FM station in another city, I had an idea about who should benefit from my wife's diary.
Paul Farhi: Interesting. I wonder if this kind of thing goes on a lot. On a more boring level, people tend to write down their favorite station(s), rather than the ones they actually listened to. This makes the ratings somewhat self-perpetuating--if your station is/was popular/well known, it will tend to do well in the ratings for the simple reason that it's easy to remember it and write it down.
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"No one has done...Ted Kennedy": Au contraire, mon ami. The late great Phil Hartman did a fabulous Sen. Kennedy in a skit about the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hall controversy. In quizzing Justice Thomas about his (alleged) come-ons to Ms. Hill, Hartman's Kennedy asked, "Well, did you, uhh, eveh think about getting her drunk?" Skit also featured Dana Carvey as Strom Thurmond talking about the virtues of "soft porn"....
Paul Farhi: I stand corrected! That was a great skit, written and performed just a day or so after the actual hearing. As I recall, that one had Al Franken as Sen. Paul Simon (he really looked like him) and the aforementioned Ellen Cleghorne (I think) as Anita Hill. Genius.
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Newfoundland Time: Newfoundland is 1 1/2 hours ahead of Eastern time, so when SNL goes live at 11:30 p.m. Eastern, it's 12:30 a.m. Atlantic time (which is what the rest of the Canadian Maritimes are under). Newfoundland being Newfoundland, their time zone is one half hour ahead of the Atlantic time zone. Ergo, 1:00 a.m.
Paul Farhi: These chats are so educational!...And why am I thinking of George Carlin's famous opening to his newscast bit: "It's 5 o'clock in New York!....It's 4 o'clock in Chicago...In Baltimore, it's 4:19....Time for the 6 o'clock news."
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Richmond, Va.: Some of the women SNL performers said the same thing: all they got was "wife of funny guy" roles and the resonse from L was for them to write their own characters. God bless Gilda Radner... what a genius.
Paul Farhi: Right. I think that criticism has waxed and waned over the years of the show. Hard to make the same case in the past few years, however, as we discussed last week...
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Richmond, Va.: My fiance had actually NOT seen Spinal Tap! I am not making this up! I Netflixed it immediately and saved the marriage.
Paul Farhi: I think every American (and even most of Newfoundland) should be required to see "Spinal Tap." Also, "Office Space" and "Anchorman." "Casablanca," too, but you can take as long as you want....
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Live from Maui: What is the deal with CNN's "Debate Night in America" shtick? It's almost as dumb as their Ballot Bowl gimmick (um, an election is already a contest!), and may be worse because they appear to have stolen the title from NBC's dumb Football Night in America, which in turn was, uh, borrowed from Canadian TV's venerable Hockey Night in Canada. Can't CNN come up with something more creative?
Paul Farhi: Why have any "titles" for these things in the first place? If we don't know that there's a debate coming, just tell us. As is, it's not even about the event itself; it's about the network's *coverage* of the event. What's wrong with just saying, "Tomorrow night, we'll be covering the third presidential debate"?
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Fairfax, Va.: Some have said that Obama is all the time too serious and that there's nothing to make fun of. You agree? Think he'll loosen up?
Paul Farhi: He IS very serious but I refuse to accept the idea that there's nothing to make fun of. It's our right--no, our sacred obligation--as Americans to make fun of these people. Have at it, folks.
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SNL comics: So who is more responsible for the quality of the show? The writers or the performers? Because there's usually only one or two good skits a night. And those two good ones are usually hilarious, but the rest suck. You used to be able to rely on the fake news to give you a chuckle, but that's been terrible since Tina Fey left.
Paul Farhi: I disagree. The writing has improved since Fey's departure. And both elements are important. Sometimes a great performance can overcome weak writing, and great writing can cover a so-so performance. But when you get both, you're golden.
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Waldorf, Md.: Every American should also be legally required to watch "Monty Python and the Holy Grail." If one of the candidates made this a campaign plank, they would have my vote.
Paul Farhi: The more daring requirement would be to watch "Life of Brian." But I will settle for "Holy Grail." Alternative credit given for seeing "Spamalot."
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Dynamism: Yep, static shots are boring and tend to lose the audience quicker. That's why a lot of interviews are done outside while walking (a "walk and talk"). And that's why when they show shots of folks to illustrate a story they're almost always walking. I worked for cable news for several years and every day heard "I need a walking shot of Bush!" being yelled out.
Paul Farhi: Ah. Thank you. See, it's in the TV News Playbook!
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Key Parties in the '70s: Twentysomething reader here, not clear what this means. Is it people getting together to sing show tunes? I'm confused...
Paul Farhi: Ah, sorry. Key parties, at least according to legend, were those in which a bunch of swinger couples got together and everyone pitched their car keys into a basket. People picked the car keys out one by one and went home with the person (of the opposite sex, I assume) whose keys the person had picked. For a glimpse of how hideous this was, check out Ang Lee's very good "Ice Storm." (It will make your skin crawl...)
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Obama: He is very serious, but he has shown indications of having a sense of humor. Remember his comment when that photo came out of him riding a bike, complete with helmet? Said his family told him he looked like Steve Urkle -- and I sensed he, not a campaign staffer, came up with it..,
Paul Farhi: More of that, please! We all need a laugh right about now.
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Paul Farhi: Folks, thanks for another lively, eclectic (I love saying "eclectic") exchange of news and views. I couldn't get to every thing this time, but that's why God invented next week. I'll be back at it again then; hope you'll be, too. Same time, same computer. In the meantime, regards to all...Paul.
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washingtonpost.com: Trailer: The Ice Storm ( YouTube)
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Washingtonpost.com
October 14, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk, Washington Post Campaign Finance Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3239 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post campaign finance reporter Matthew Mosk was online live Tuesday, Oct. 14 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Matthew Mosk: Good morning. We are now just three weeks from Election Day, and the end to this most grueling ultra political marathon. I know there are some political reporters who can't wait to get to the finish line. So what's on your mind today, as Obama takes a day for debate prep, and Sen. McCain shoots up to New York (with running mate in tow) to raise some money for the final push?
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Waterville, Maine: Good morning. What are the projections of Obama's fundraising total in September? There are rumors that he could exceed $100 million, crushing all other records. Do we have any idea how much "cash on hand" each candidate has at this point in the race? It seems to me that Obama has a huge advantage here, but I would assume the Republican National Committee is pumping a lot of money into McCain's campaign to try to level the playing field.
Matthew Mosk: Ah, fundraising. Thanks so much Mainer, for this question. There has, indeed, been much speculation about the number Sen. Obama will post for his September fundraiser. The operative figure working its way through the rumor mill is $90 million, but if I have learned anything over the past 22 months, it's don't trust the rumor mill. I think there's no question he will post a record number, in excess of the $67 million he raised in August. Evidence of that is in the incredible amount of spending he has been doing in the past few weeks. He is vastly outspending Sen. McCain on television in almost every battleground state.
As for the RNC, they have just purchased $5 million of additional television time. But that is a drop in the bucket compared to Obama.
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Cincinnati: How do contributors skirt the $2,300 general election limit by going to fundraisers? Is the chicken Kiev with garlic mashed potatoes valued at $16,000?
Matthew Mosk: Hello Cinci. One way they are getting around this limit, legally, is by contributing money to the Democratic National Committee. When Congress worked out new fundraising rules back in 2002, they got rid of unlimited "soft money" contributions. But they did allow a single individual to donate up to $28,500 to the party. The party can then spend that money to promote its presidential candidate.
I doubt the chicken is worth it. We'll have to wait till after the election to see if the donors believe their money was well spent.
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Los Angeles: What happened to expenditures by liberal independent groups? I have seen no evidence of such spending, but have seen them from conservative or McCain-supporting groups.
Matthew Mosk: In fact, L.A., the liberal groups are alive and well. Most of the liberal spending is coming from longstanding organizations such as unions and interest groups. For instance, a check of the latest reports (filed this morning) show the group Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just plunked down more than $200,000 on television ads attacking McCain on the environment. VoteVets and Healthcare for America Now (which is union-backed) have between them bought $6.6 million in pro-Obama ads last week.
On the conservative side, there are a handfull of groups that have popped up. But this type of group continues to struggle for funds.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. There's a suggestion that Elizabeth Dole is starting to self-fund. Is that because of unexpectedly poor fundraising, or because of an unexpected need to spend more money?
Matthew Mosk: I had not heard this about Sen. Dole's campaign, but there certainly have been signs of trouble for her. The Raleigh newspaper today reported on a poll by Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina firm, showing Democrat Kay Hagan leading Dole by five points.
The paper reports that Dole has stepped up her advertising in recent days, and that could change the landscape there.
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Dialing for Dollars: As McCain slips in the polls, doesn't it make his fundraising that much more difficult? Particularly when he is trying to raise money on Wall Street after roundly (and correctly) criticizing them.
Matthew Mosk: I think the answer to this question is yes. And I have been told that the flip side is true -- the more that polls show Obama solidifying a lead, the easier it will be for him to raise money.
This is especially the case with respect to internet fundraising, which fluctuates much more wildly based on the news of the day.
The caveat to this is that most of the big-dollar fundraising events (like McCain's RNC fundraiser tonight) have been planned well in advance, and much of that money was scooped up before he started to slide in the polls.
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Elmwood Park, N.J.: So, have any of the pundits and reporters who excoriated Obama for not taking public funds admitted that they were as dumb as a box of rocks, and agreed never to opine on anything political ever, ever again?
Matthew Mosk: I'd say so. A couple weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that Obama may not see any real advantage -- that the RNC was successfully raising enough money to help McCain keep pace with Obama financially, especially after McCain received an $84 million government check.
But the picture seems to have changed, at least based on what we're seeing with the campaigns' spending.
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Southwest Nebraska: How much will a 30-minute primetime slot on several networks cost Obama's campaign?
washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Obama's Primetime Buy Comes at Bargain Price (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 10)
Matthew Mosk: Hello Southwest Nebraska! Thanks for your questions.
For those who have not been following this, Sen. Obama has so many gobs of money that he is not only going to be doing conventional TV ads, he will also be airing infomercials on prime time television a few days before the election. He gets a good deal on price, too, because of federal rules that require networks to provide political candidates the lowest possible market rates for airtime. Here's how my colleague Lisa deMoraes put it:
"The Democratic presidential candidate's camp is paying under $1 million to each network to run the programming it will produce for the first half-hour of primetime that Wednesday night, less than a week before the election. This is considerably less than the networks would otherwise get for the 10-11 ad "units" they run during that half hour, between 8 and 8:30 p.m."
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Halifax, Nova Scotia: There is a national election being held today in America's closest economic ally, its largest trading partner and the largest foreign supplier of energy to the U.S. It speaks volumes about Canada's relevance in the American mindset that one of the most important newspapers in the U.S. does not consider this event to be newsworthy enough to cover, aside from a few wire stories from AP or Reuters. Are we really that irrelevant in the U.S., or are Americans just so self-absorbed that unless we flood your nation with illegal immigrants or elect a mullah as Prime Minister today, there is no way the American media will take any note of what happens up here?
washingtonpost.com: Final Canada poll shows stronger Conservative minority (Reuters, Oct. 14)
Matthew Mosk: This seems as good a time as any to remind ourselves that there is a whole wide world out there -- and they don't all care about our insanely interesting presidential campaign. Thanks for the reality check, Halifax!
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Florissant Valley, Mo.: Morning, Matthew. Do you think there's a chnace that if the market keeps springing back and people get less antsy about the economy, McCain's numbers could rise? Or is the national "mood" pretty well set in stone and it would take a major seismic event to reverse the trends? Thanks.
Matthew Mosk: Thanks for this question, Mo. The honest answer is, I really have no idea. But I think it's clear that as the country fell into a panic over the economic collapse, polling showed people turning towards Obama. I don't know how peoples' confidence about the economy will change over the next three weeks, but it stands to reason that if they become more confident, they could shift their allegiences again.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Mr. Mosk, this morning on C-SPAN a caller claimed that the $700 billion package for Wall Street included money (I believe she said $500 million) for the voter registration group ACORN. Is this a rumor? What is the source of this idea? Thanks.
Matthew Mosk: This sounds to me as though it is almost certainly, completely wrong. I think you may have misheard this.
But I have a number of questions lined up about ACORN, so I'll post a few and we can discuss the group and the allegations against them.
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Detroit: I'm really surprised how disinterested the media is in Obama's combined fundraising and voter registrations scandals. Mickey Mouse is registered to vote in Florida, courtesy of ACORN -- and he'll vote for Obama, naturally. And Obama's record-setting donations are sprinkled with fake names. No investigation has been done as far as I can tell to see how deeply corrupt his fundraising practices are. Are you willing to discount the Mickey Mouses, or do you think it's a sign of a deeper, more troubling corrupt core at the heart of Obama?
Matthew Mosk: Here's another... Just to be clear, there are two sides to this story.
The RNC has alleged that ACORN is filing fraudulant voter registrations. The RNC's chief spokesman last week called ACORN a "quasi-criminal group" during one of a series of news conferences, charging that the group was committing fraud during its voter-registration drives. "We don't do that lightly," RNC chief counsel Sean Cairncross added.
Here's what an ACORN official told The Post yesterday: "It's pretty shocking that anyone would say such a thing," Bertha Lewis, interim chief organizer for National ACORN, said of the assertion. "It's a lie, it's irresponsible, and I'm really disappointed that they would say such a thing. What's the meaning of 'quasi-criminal' anyway?"
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Washington: With all due respect, Matthew, I think Halifax's comment about the Canadian elections meant to convey that we in the U.S. don't seem to care about their elections (which is true: the U.S. public doesn't care about anybody else's elections unless we think the potential winner is an "enemy.") I think most of the rest of the world is very interested in our presidential election because the U.S. is a powerful force in the world.
Matthew Mosk: Yes. Now that I read it again, I realize you're right.
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The Numbers: Okay, if 95 percent of ACORN's 1,300,000 voter registration forms are perfectly accurate that still leaves 65,000 "joke" or padded forms; 65,000 sounds great for an anti-Obama talking point, but in context does it amount to anything? Especially considering that ACORN points out troubling forms to the election boards? Why has this non-story jumped from the crazy pages at Michelle Malkin's house of hate and onto Page 2 of my paper?
Matthew Mosk: Well, I don't think this is a story that we can ignore. Here's why: If this winds up being a close election, every element of the process from registrations to hanging chads will be under a microscope.
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washingtonpost.com: GOP Officials Assail Community Group (Post, Oct. 14)
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Ashland, Ore.: Matthew, how close is the Republican National Committee to cutting bait on McCain and shoring up congressional candidates like Dole or Chambliss? Or would cutting bait on McCain hurt imperiled senators more than the money would help?
Matthew Mosk: This is a terrific question, Ashland. It's a subject of considerable internal debate inside the Republican Party. That's because the fundraising arm of the Republican senators, the NRSC, has been significantly outspent by their counterparts on the Democratic side. At this point, though, the RNC is largely populated with McCain people. He is essentially the head of the party. So my bet would be that the RNC stays on its mission to get McCain elected.
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Arlington, Va.: How do Obama's infomercials not violate the equal time clauses in states like California? It sounds like this is the exact kind of thing the law is supposed to prevent.
Matthew Mosk: I don't think there is anyone telling McCain he cannot do the same thing. It's a question of money. That's why the financial imblance is becoming such a significant part of the political story.
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Chicago: How much longer can the McCain campaign afford to keep staff and advertise in states where recent polls show him down by double digits (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc.)? When will we see the McCain camp start pulling out of states to concentrate on the ones they think they really can win? Will Obama have to pull out of any? How much did Obama pull out of Michigan after McCain ceded the state to him?
Matthew Mosk: This is another, similar question, that we are following closely. I think we'll have a better sense next week, when we see the latest campaign finance reports, how many tough decisions the McCain campaign will face regarding spending. Right now, they are focusing their money on key television markets within the swing states, while Obama is spending statewide in those states.
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New Orleans: I think Obama's flip-flop on public financing wasn't just a bad day for pundits -- it was a bad day for America. Billion-dollar presidential elections are not good for democracy. You've either got to be personally wealthy or tied to the corrupt Chicago political machine to compete in that world -- or both, in Obama's case.
Matthew Mosk: Thanks for this comment, N.O.
There is a push in congress to update the presidential public financing system so that candidates won't feel pressure to exit the system and take the free-spending approach. It will be interesting to see how it progresses after this election is over. This campaign is giving us the first real look at how unlimited spending would work.
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New York: Matthew, does having more money win the race, or does winning (i.e., people like the message) bring in the money? Which is more important, money or message?
Matthew Mosk: I think most people will tell you that money alone does not win a campaign. (if that were true, John McCain would not be the Republican nominee right now). But money at this moment is giving Obama an awful lot of freedom to get his message out in key states. There's no way to know whether that will be decisive. But it certainly is not hurting him.
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Mickey Mouse is registered to vote in Florida and he'll vote for Obama: Really? The actual Mickey Mouse will arrive at a polling place and cast a ballot? Will you be reporting this momentous event, Matthew?
Matthew Mosk: I will gladly cover the Orlando polling stations to see what happens! (you think the Post will let me bring my kids?) :)
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Princeton, N.J.: Look there's a big difference between registration fraud and voter fraud. Do you expect Mickey to actually vote? People got paid to register people, just as conservatives did for the referendum in California about gay marriage. Some of them in both cases put down extra names to get a little more dough. Some of it was jokes. There never had been any cases of voter fraud associated with ACORN.
Matthew Mosk: This is a more serious response to the previous question. Thanks, Princeton reader.
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Falls Church, Va.: If a half-hour ad buy on a network is less than $1 million for a presidential campaign, why don't we see it happening more often?
Matthew Mosk: I think there is some question about how effective it will be (especially if it winds up opposite Game 6 of the World Series) (Go Dodgers!)
Honestly, my sense from folks I've spoken to is that the 30-second ad is more efficient, and the advertiser is better able to reach a targeted voter. In essence, it's more precise.
A half-hour of network tv is really a luxury that not many candidates have tried. My recollection is that Ross Perot did several, and we can see how that worked out.
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Hampton Cove, Ala.: Have you spent time marveling at the contrast in coverage to the sexual exploits of Mark Foley and Tim Mahoney? It seems it's front page when it's a Republican and buried when its a Democrat. Rahm Emanuel knew about it for a year. Where is the outrage that a politician can pay off a mistress with taxpayer money and then get endorsed by his party (the Democratic Party)?
washingtonpost.com: Scandal Embroils Congressman (Post, Oct. 14)
Matthew Mosk: Good question, Bama. I will pass this along to our Ombudsman, who spends a lot of time studying our coverage trends and looking for problems with balance. She'd be better equipped to evaluate this. Her name is Deborah Howell, and this link will take you to some of her recent work on this subject:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/03/25/LI2005032500838.html
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Alaska: Do you sense that Sarah Palin has done more to energize the left than any other factor thus far? It seems to have been all downhill after the short-term boost of her base.This group is not large enough to get McCain elected, but she sure has brought out the indies and moderates to the Obama camp.
Matthew Mosk: I'd be curious for other opinions on this. I subscribe to the view that the vice presidential pick rarely if ever winds up influencing the outcome of a presidential election.
For a few days there, I wondered if Gov. Palin might challenge that idea. But at this point, especially with whatever impressions are left by tomorrow's debate, I no longer think she'll have a significant impact on the outcome.
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St John's, Newfoundland: Sadly, it seems as if most Canadians don't really care about this election, either.
Matthew Mosk: Did I mention that the Caps crushed the Canucks last night? (Go Caps!)
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Collingswood, N.J.: Actually, Ross Perot's TV time got him a lot ... he was the only third-party candidate to make a serious splash a presidential election in my lifetime (more than 40 years).
Matthew Mosk: Hmmm. Okay. This is a fair point.
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Matthew Mosk: Well gang, this was fun. Nice to see how fired up everyone is. Should be an interesting day of political news as the candidates gear up for a big debate. Stay tuned.
Thanks!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 15, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Web Publication
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226 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
October 13, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Writing Memoir, McCain Found a Narrative for Life
BYLINE: By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE LONG RUN; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 2866 words
WASHINGTON -- For 25 years after his release from a North Vietnamese prison, Senator John McCain tried to build a reputation as more than a famous former captive. ''I never want to be a professional P.O.W.,'' he often told friends. He refused to let his campaigns use pictures from his incarceration, and he never mentioned his torture.
''When somebody introduces me like, 'Here is our great war hero,' I don't like it,'' Mr. McCain complained in a 1998 interview with Esquire magazine. ''Jesus,'' he said, ''it can make your skin crawl.''
Mr. McCain's impatience with his war story soon changed, however, when he became not only its protagonist but also its author. His 1999 memoir, ''Faith of My Fathers,'' for the first time put his prison camp ordeal at the center of his public persona. In its pages, he recalled the experience as much more than a trial: a turning point from glory-seeking flyboy to responsible patriot, the final resolution of a rebellion against his father's expectations, and the origin of a drive ''to serve a cause'' larger than himself.
A descendant of Navy admirals who wrote unpublished novels and quoted Victorian poetry, Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, often surprises aides and friends with his literary musings and bibliophilic appetite. He cites characters from fiction and film as role models.
As he recounted his history to his speechwriter and co-author, Mark Salter, Mr. McCain echoed their stories; his memoir incorporated some of the defiance of Marlon Brando's outlaws, the self-discovery of W. Somerset Maugham's ''Of Human Bondage'' and the stoicism of Ernest Hemingway's dying hero in ''For Whom the Bell Tolls.'' (''You know he is a fictional character?'' Mr. Salter said he once asked Mr. McCain, who replied, ''I know, but he was influential!'')
Mr. Salter, taking a little literary license, assembled from Mr. McCain's recollections a neat narrative that he had never before articulated. It became a best seller, a television movie and the first of five successful McCain-Salter volumes. And on the eve of Mr. McCain's 2000 Republican primary run, its story line reshaped his political identity. In interviews and speeches, Mr. McCain has increasingly described his life in the book's language and themes, and never more so than during his current campaign, which has turned back to the story of ''Faith of My Fathers'' for everything from its first television commercial to his speech at the Republican convention.
Politics was imitating art, said Stephen Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown who has studied Mr. McCain's career and memoir. ''It is almost as if McCain had described himself as a literary character,'' Professor Wayne said, ''and then he tried to be that person in real life.''
Some friends say it is only natural that Mr. McCain would begin to sound like his autobiography. ''If I have some thoughts in my mind and I take the time to write them down,'' said Orson Swindle, a close friend from prison camp, ''I find that I will be inclined to say them exactly that way over and over, too.''
Still, other friends say they marvel at how heavily the McCain campaign relies on the chastened-hero image created by ''Faith of My Fathers,'' for example, citing his prison experience to deflect questions on array of unwelcome questions about his campaign tactics, his personal wealth and his health insurance, among other matters.
Robert Timberg, a marine wounded in Vietnam who became Mr. McCain's biographer and admired his memoir, said the John McCain he knew 15 years ago would never have suggested that he was more patriotic than a rival the way the senator has in attacking his Democratic opponent, Senator Barack Obama.
''Political campaigns have a way of distorting reality and turning political candidates into caricatures of themselves,'' Mr. Timberg said, adding, ''In some ways that has happened to him, and in some ways he may have contributed to that.''
Mr. Salter called that assertion ''deeply offensive.''
''People who say that kind of thing -- I know a lot of reporters who have said it -- don't have the faintest concept or grasp of what motivates John McCain and his personal conception of honor,'' Mr. Salter said. ''He earned the right to tell that story.''
Reluctant Memoirist
Mr. McCain's career as an author began not long after the 1995 publication of Mr. Timberg's book, ''The Nightingale's Song,'' which explored the legacy of Vietnam through the lives of the senator and four other graduates of the Naval Academy. It drew critical praise but moderate sales. Mr. Timberg's literary agent, Philippa Brophy, saw a whole book in Mr. McCain alone.
When she visited his office, however, Mr. McCain resisted. He had turned down plenty of other book offers, and he worried that the image of him as a prisoner could make him look weak, several advisers said. He preferred to rely on black humor in talking about the period -- telling an anecdote about stealing a fellow prisoner's wash rag, or falling out of a shower trying to catch a glimpse of a ponytailed Vietnamese laundress.
Until then, Mr. McCain had always campaigned as an uncomplicated go-getter, full of energy and ideas. A former Navy liaison to the Senate, he presented himself as a well-connected insider with ''experience in Washington,'' in the words of his first 1982 campaign commercial, who could get things done for Arizona, his newly adopted home. He brought up his five years in Hanoi mainly to rebut criticisms that he was a carpetbagger (prison had made him appreciate the Arizona sunset, he said in the advertisement, smiling behind the wheel of a sports car).
Mr. McCain told Ms. Brophy that the only book he wanted to write was a tribute to others, like John F. Kennedy's ''Profiles in Courage'' -- just what every senator says, she recalled thinking to herself.
Whom might he profile? she said she asked, playing along. Mr. McCain started by naming his grandfather and father, both four-star admirals with storied careers.
''And you!'' she interrupted. ''That's your book. You're done.''
Conceiving of the project as a tribute to his family, Mr. McCain signed on, tapping Mr. Salter to help write it. Mr. Salter, now 53, had been writing speeches for Mr. McCain, 72, for nearly a decade. ''Mark literally loves John McCain like a father,'' Mr. Swindle said. ''Like brothers,'' Mr. McCain has said.
An admirer of William Trevor, the often-bleak Irish author -- a taste Mr. McCain has picked up -- Mr. Salter is known among colleagues for his gloomy view of human nature and the world. Mr. McCain has a similar streak. ''It's always darkest before it's totally black,'' he often says, a motto borrowed from the ''Peanuts'' character Charlie Brown that he jokingly misattributes to Mao.
The McCain-Salter collaboration imbued the memoir with its confessional, often foreboding tone, friends say. The combination ''was like taking darkness and fatalism, then pulling down the shades and contemplating our dark fate,'' said John Weaver, a friend and former adviser to Mr. McCain.
Mr. McCain grew up in a family full of aspiring writers, where ''people talked about characters in books as though they were real people,'' said Elizabeth Spencer, a novelist and a second cousin of Mr. McCain's who spent much of World War II with him as a child at the family's Mississippi plantation.
A beloved uncle, Bert Andrews, won a Pulitzer Prize as a reporter for The New York Herald Tribune in 1948. The senator's grandfather, the first Adm. John S. McCain, had left behind a drawer full of unpublished fiction, including adventure stories under the pseudonym Casper Clubfoot. And the senator's father, Adm. John S. McCain Jr., loved to recite martial poems to his sons, especially ''Ave Imperatrix,'' Oscar Wilde's eulogy for the waning British Empire.
As a student, Mr. McCain was always more enthusiastic about reading and writing than science or math. At the Naval Academy and then in flight school, he almost flunked out because of his indifference to technical subjects like fluid dynamics, Mr. Swindle said. ''He would rather be reading 'The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.' ''
Influential Heroes
Sitting down with Mr. Salter for more than 50 hours of recorded interviews that furnished the memoir's raw material -- many episodes were set in print almost as Mr. McCain described them, Mr. Salter said -- the senator often brought up the stories and characters that influenced him and they in turn infused the book. ''When he tells his story,'' Mr. Salter said, ''they come through.''
The John McCain of ''Faith of My Fathers,'' for example, bears more than a little resemblance to the fictional Robert Jordan of ''For Whom the Bell Tolls,'' the Hemingway hero Mr. McCain later celebrated in another book with Mr. Salter, ''Worth the Fighting For,'' which was named for a line of Jordan's dying thoughts. He was ''a man who would risk his life but never his honor,'' Mr. McCain wrote with Mr. Salter, a model of ''how a great man should style himself.''
Each book is heavy with premonitions of mortality. Robert Jordan and John McCain each confront great tests (the temptation to escape a doomed mission for one, the offer of early prison release for the other) in the service of a lost cause (the socialists in the Spanish Civil War, the Americans in Vietnam). And in accepting his fate, each makes peace with his father and grandfather.
Mr. McCain's admirers, like Mr. Timberg, have often puzzled over what drew him to Maugham's ''Of Human Bondage.'' It is a convoluted psychodrama about a young man with a club foot; he seethes with resentment over his disability and nearly ruins his life in the thrall of a waitress-turned-prostitute who rejects him. But the character's final realization could fit almost as well near the conclusion of Mr. McCain's memoir: ''It might be that to surrender to happiness was to accept defeat, but it was a defeat better than many victories.''
''That explains it,'' Mr. Salter said when he heard the line. ''Perfect McCainism.''
The appeal of the young Marlon Brando, whose career was at its height during the senator's adolescence in the 1950s, is easier to see. Both he and Mr. McCain were short (about 5-foot-9) tough guys with volatile tempers and surprisingly soft voices. (Friends say Mr. McCain likes to imitate Brando erupting in rage: ''You scum-sucking pig!'')
Brando would have been well cast as the young John McCain of ''Faith of My Fathers'' -- a thin-skinned troublemaker with an authority problem and a righteous streak.
Mr. McCain has often described the Brando film ''Viva Zapata!'' as the ''greatest movie of all time.'' It is the tale of a mercurial Mexican revolutionary who forms a new government, then fights against it. ''I loved so much the idea of one man on a white horse, fighting for justice,'' Mr. McCain wrote. ''That was the essential truth of his life: he was a man who fought.''
Like ''Faith of My Fathers,'' Mr. McCain's other Brando favorite, the Western ''One-Eyed Jacks,'' is a father-son story of sorts. Brando played an outlaw known as Kid who kills a former accomplice-turned-sheriff named Dad and runs off with his stepdaughter.
To Mr. Salter, Mr. McCain opened up about his feelings for his father -- discomfort at his binge drinking, resentment of the presumption that the son would follow his father to the Naval Academy, and the unexpected emotions he experienced in midlife when his fame had at last exceeded his father's.
''It is a wonderful narrative, spiced with psychological insights,'' said Stanley Renshon, a psychoanalyst and political scientist at the City University of New York who has written about Mr. McCain and his book. ''Almost like McCain's version of psychoanalysis.''
Political Theme
But Mr. McCain was still reticent about his experience in Hanoi. ''He kind of shorted me on the prison stuff,'' Mr. Salter said.
To fill in the details, Mr. Salter consulted the McCain family, Navy archives and fellow former P.O.W.'s. ''I would say 50 to 60 percent of it was from McCain,'' Mr. Salter said.
Mr. Salter said he found a summary of what became the arc of the story in a quote tucked deep inside Mr. Timberg's book, from a Senate aide and Korean War veteran who admired Mr. McCain. ''I knew 200 John McCains,'' said the aide, William Bader. ''They're vaguely paunchy, overgrown boys. If John McCain had not had this Vietnamese experience, of prison, of solitude, of brutality, he would have just been one more Navy jock.''
Retelling his captivity as a coming-of-age tale was partly a literary device, Mr. Salter acknowledged. By the time Mr. McCain, a Navy pilot, was shot down at age 31, he had already outgrown his extended adolescence, married and become a father, and gotten serious about his Navy career, he told Mr. Salter.
Still, Mr. McCain also said more vaguely that he had matured in prison, that he had learned to see that life was about more than his career and his reputation, Mr. Salter said. As Mr. McCain had put it in his first television commercial, ''I have certainly become a better and enriched person for having had that experience, in a myriad of ways.''
In the memoir, Mr. Salter helped sharpen that point into what became the new refrain of his boss's political ascent. Mr. McCain had thought ''all glory was self-glory,'' but prison taught him ''there are greater pursuits than self-seeking,'' Mr. Salter wrote for the senator. ''Glory belongs to the act of being constant to something greater than yourself, to a cause, to your principles.''
In the United States Naval Institute archives, Mr. Salter found an oral history in which the senator's father recounted his last meeting with his own father, on an American ship in Tokyo Bay at the end of World War II.
''Son,'' the first Admiral McCain had told the second, ''there is no greater thing than to die for the principles -- for the country and the principles that you believe in.''
Senator McCain might have heard the sentiment, but he had never seen the quotation. ''He was pretty fascinated,'' Mr. Salter said.
To tie together the three generations of Mr. McCain's family memoir, Mr. Salter put the grandfather's words into the mind of the young John McCain as he was returning home from Vietnam on the last page of ''Faith of My Fathers'': ''Down through the years, I had remembered a dying man's legacy to his son,'' Mr. Salter wrote in Mr. McCain's voice, ''and when I needed it most, I had found my freedom abiding in it.''
Critics praised the book as a much more gripping tale than the usual Washington fare. Some who knew the senator and Mr. Salter, though, rolled their eyes at the heavy emotion and tidy moral. ''I thought, 'Oh guys, come on!' '' recalled Victoria Clarke, Mr. McCain's friend and former press secretary. ''In his early years,'' Ms. Clarke said, ''he tried so hard to make sure people didn't see him as a P.O.W.''
But when 1,200 people crammed into a church near Kansas City for a book signing on a September night in 1999, Mr. McCain's campaign managers realized they had found a potent new tool. They quickly expanded a two-week book tour into a major part of Mr. McCain's 2000 Republican primary campaign. ''Faith of My Fathers'' sold more than 500,000 copies, easily exceeding the $500,000 advance. (Mr. McCain gave half the proceeds from his books to Mr. Salter, with the other half going to charity.)
When it came time to write Mr. McCain's speech accepting the Republican presidential nomination this summer, Mr. Salter said, it was only natural to return to ''Faith of My Fathers.'' ''To remind people who he is,'' Mr. Salter said. '' 'Here is who I am, here is why you can believe me.' ''
Mr. McCain owes much to the book, said Mr. Weaver, who guided the senator's 2000 campaign. ''It made his persona much grander, much more cause-oriented,'' Mr. Weaver recalled. ''The book played a major role in creating the brand that has served McCain so well.''
The Long Run: This is part of a series of articles about the lives and careers of the Republican and Democratic candidates for president in 2008.
Correction: October 16, 2008, Thursday
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: A picture on Monday with the continuation of a front-page article about Senator John Mc- Cain and his 1999 memoir, ''Faith of My Fathers,'' was published in error. The photograph, of Marlon Brando, whose characters were an inspiration to the young Mr. McCain, was digitally altered. The alterations were made last week when the picture was used as part of a ''before and after'' illustration for an article on nytimes.com about a software program that can create a supposedly more attractive face. The ''before'' picture of Mr. Brando was supposed to have been used with the McCain article.
Correction: October 20, 2008, Monday
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: An article last Monday about Senator John McCain's memoir referred incorrectly to archives containing an oral history of Mr. McCain's father, Adm. John S. McCain Jr. The archives belong to the United States Naval Institute, an independent nonprofit organization located at the United States Naval Academy; they do not belong to the United States Navy.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: April 9, 2011
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: John McCain signing copies of his memoir in 1999. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DENIS POROY/ASSOCIATED PRESS)(A1)
COLLABORATIVE EFFORT: In writing memoirs with an adviser, Mark Salter, above, John McCain drew parallels between himself as a young aviator, below left, and characters that inspired him, like those played by Marlon Brando, below right. (PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHEN SAVOIA/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
NEW APPEAL: Mr. McCain, signing his book in 1999, used his memoir's story line to shape a campaign message. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DITH PRAN/THE NEW YORK TIMES)(A17)
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Series
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
227 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
October 13, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
On the Bus, But With No Reason to Go?
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1515 words
DATELINE: INDIANAPOLIS
The reporters waded gingerly into two-inch-deep mud and settled behind scratched wooden tables as Barack Obama was being introduced to more than 10,000 screaming fans at the state fairgrounds here.
Before the Democratic nominee took the podium, the text of his speech arrived by BlackBerry. The address was carried by CNN, Fox and MSNBC. While he was still delivering his applause lines, an Atlantic blogger posted excerpts. And despite the huge foot-stomping crowd that could barely be glimpsed from the media tent, most reporters remained hunched over their laptops.
Does the campaign trail still matter much in an age of digital warfare? Or is it now a mere sideshow, meant to provide the media with pretty pictures of colorful crowds while the guts of the contest unfold elsewhere? And if so, are the boys (and girls) on the bus spinning their wheels?
"Anything interesting that happens on the road is going to be eaten up before you can get to it," says Slate correspondent John Dickerson. "By the time you see the papers, you feel like you know it all."
On the road, some of the nation's top print journalists morph into bloggers who post paragraphs on each mini-development, giving them a more stenographic role that leaves less time for actual reporting, or even thinking. Obama advisers have concluded that newspaper and magazine stories no longer have the same resonance but that a brief item by, say, Politico bloggers can spread like wildfire.
With a single correspondent's campaign travel costing as much as $10,000 a week, the number of cash-strapped news organizations willing to pony up has been dwindling in recent years. Only five newspapers -- the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune -- are traveling regularly with Obama and John McCain. The big regional papers, USA Today and Time magazine are there only intermittently, and Newsweek, which had been a constant presence on the trail, pulled back last week for financial reasons. (The networks, which used young off-air "embeds" during much of the primary season, now have front-line correspondents on board to do daily live shots.)
In the slower-paced, pre-cable age, what newspaper reporters wrote each day had major impact. These days, the candidates' rallies are often carried live on cable. Top strategists hold dueling conference calls for the press and send out the audio for those who miss it. Each new ad is instantly on YouTube, each new e-mail assault splashed across the Web. What, then, is the value of being on the plane?
"Having a blog is a terrific bonus for me because I get to put out everything I know in a constant way," says Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times. But, she says, "being on the plane is very, very expensive and does not necessarily provide stuff you could not get elsewhere. When you have limited resources, it's a corner to cut."
The greatest advantage of campaign travel, journalists say, is access to senior officials who rarely return calls or e-mails. Beyond that, says Chicago Tribune reporter Jill Zuckman, "you look at a campaign with a more critical eye when you're there. You get a better sense of crowds and enthusiasm levels and mood that you cannot get off TV."
Lack of access is accepted as a given. Obama held his last press availability two weeks ago, while McCain -- once renowned for his nonstop schmoozing with journalists -- has held one brief news conference in a month and a half.
Boston Globe reporter Sasha Issenberg, who covers McCain, says he gets more richly textured stories on the road. But, he says, "I haven't had any personal interaction with McCain for months. In any reasonable cost-benefit analysis . . . it's probably getting harder to justify. When we're on the plane and there's no TV and you can't read blogs, we're more walled off from the story we're covering than I would be if I were in my bureau."
David Broder, the Post veteran who covered his first White House campaign in 1960, says the daily speeches chronicled by journalists were once newsworthy. But campaign officials eventually "learned that that let the reporters decide what the sound bite of the day was. They could control that by shrinking the options that reporters had. You went to the abandoned mill or polluted stream and delivered your two sentences, and that was it for the day."
As recently as 2000, Broder recalls having dinner with McCain three nights in a row while working on a profile. Now, he says, "I notice that in our stories we routinely start out writing about Obama and McCain, but very quickly we're quoting some spokesman who's sent us an e-mail commenting on what Obama and McCain have said."
A reporter's observation can occasionally start a brush fire. In Dana Milbank's Post column last week, a couple of sentences about a crowd at a Sarah Palin event hurling obscenities -- and in one case a racial epithet -- at journalists led to days of stories, sometimes overblown, about anger and ugliness at GOP rallies.
Last Wednesday -- the day after the second presidential debate -- was typical for journalists traveling with the campaigns. As reporters flew with Obama from Nashville to Indianapolis, chief spokesman Robert Gibbs did not come back on the plane to spin reporters. The reason: He was napping, after an early-morning MSNBC debate with McCain adviser Nicolle Wallace.
Grabbed on the tarmac, Gibbs said the financial crisis would force the campaign to talk about the economy every day until the election. "This is one of the few times when a presidential campaign has been overtaken by events," he said. "It's even subsuming the debates at this point. You've just got to ride the wave."
The day's only event -- the only thing resembling "news" -- was the noontime rally in normally red-state Indiana. An Obama press aide said the senator from Illinois would sharpen his debate attack on McCain's plan to tax employer-provided health insurance, but the reporters didn't seem to care much.
A nine-paragraph post appeared on the New York Times blog two hours later, saying that Obama, who did not "break any new policy ground," had said "that he could endure four more weeks of Republican attacks 'but America can't take four more years of John McCain's Bush policies.' " A Post blog, updated later in the afternoon, said Obama had delivered "a confident and inspirational speech that asked Americans to 'believe in each other' as the country faces a historic challenge to fix the economy."
The press corps remained in the muddy tent for two hours, in part because Obama was sitting down for an interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson.
Dickerson, a former Time correspondent and one of the few who ventured outside the tent, says occasional travel is valuable. But, he says, "you have to spend a lot of time not on the road, or else you can never think four feet off the ground. It's ridiculous to be on the bus, as we all are, have events unfold in front of you and totally ignore them. You sit and watch a rally, and you're not paying any attention to it because you're writing a story about a swing state 600 miles away."
On the subsequent flight to Chicago, Obama spokeswoman Linda Douglass came into the press section and invited questions. She criticized McCain's new mortgage-bailout proposal, which had already been the subject of an e-blast from the Obama campaign. NBC's Lee Cowan asked about a slam hours earlier by McCain's wife, Cindy, who said "the day that Senator Obama decided to cast a vote to not fund my son when he was serving sent a cold chill through my body."
"John McCain has also voted for cutting funds for the troops," Douglass said, adding: "I understand she's got a son and she's worried." No one followed up.
While virtually every detail of the day could have been gleaned back home, several journalists -- such as John Heilemann of New York magazine -- noticed that Obama seemed to hit his stride in talking about the economy's impact on the middle class.
"One of the things I got out of the speech is how much more fluid he is talking about this stuff and how much the financial crisis has helped him," Heilemann says. "I've been critical of Obama for not ever developing an economic narrative, a story about what's going on in America. He obviously gets criticized for being too professorial. He's still not 100 percent there, but he's found a touch, a kind of soft populism."
It was the sort of observation that doesn't show up in the box score but can shape perceptions of the game.
Sympathetic Journalism
A Michelle Obama profile in the women's magazine More describes her as "casually elegant," "warm" and "focused." The headline: "Camelot 2.0."
The author, Geraldine Brooks, mentions that she first met the potential first lady at a Martha's Vineyard fundraiser, as a donor to her husband's campaign.
"I certainly pointed it out to the assigning editor and editor in chief and said it would have to be disclosed," Brooks says. "I was intrigued by her." Her sympathies, Brooks says, were "made pretty obvious by the fact that I was at a high-dollar fundraiser for him the year before."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Alex Brandon -- Associated Press; Candidates' speeches, like this one by Barack Obama last Wednesday, end up on YouTube, reducing the need for traveling reporters.
IMAGE; By Brian Snyder -- Reuters; McCain aide Mark Salter talks to reporters in New York. The traveling press corps often finds itself with no access to the candidates, and some reporters feel that the demand for instant blogging has turned them into stenographers.
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Clintons Join Biden to Campaign for Obama in Scranton;
Democratic All-Stars Take Nominee's Case to Blue-Collar Area That Spawned His Running Mate but Voted for His Primary Foe
BYLINE: Robert Barnes; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 966 words
DATELINE: SCRANTON, Pa., Oct. 12
Everything in politics is recyclable. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. left this state while in grade school, but he can still talk of "we Pennsylvanians." Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's childhood summers at a nearby lake can be turned into the declaration that "here in northeast Pennsylvania, we don't go down without a fight."
Even one of Clinton's favorite lines from her historic, this-close race for the Democratic nomination can be reworked for the man who defeated her, Sen. Barack Obama.
"It took a Democratic president to clean up after the last President Bush; it's going to take a Democratic president to clean up after this president," Clinton said Sunday at a loud rally here, where she appeared with vice presidential nominee Biden.
Back when she was the front-runner for her party's nomination, she used to say it took Clintons to clean up after the Bushes.
Those Clintons were both here to stump for Obama in a part of Pennsylvania that remains cool toward the Democrat despite increasingly favorable signs elsewhere in the state. As has been the case since Obama became the nominee, the assignment seemed harder on Bill Clinton than on the woman who actually lost the race.
To be fair, the former president's job was to introduce his wife, so he mentioned the word "Obama" only four times in his eight-minute speech. One of those came when he said he had to leave early because "I have been dispatched by the Obama-Biden campaign to go to Virginia, where we're going to win for the first time in 40 years."
It was more of a "Joe and Hillary" day anyway, billed as a homecoming for a favorite son and goddaughter.
Scranton is Biden's home town, even if he left more than 50 years ago and represents Delaware, and his wife, Jill, was born in Pennsylvania as well. Hillary Rodham's grandfather worked in the lace mills, her father is buried here, and she spent childhood summers in a family cabin on a lake nearby. She made the connection stick in April, when she resoundingly defeated Obama in the state's primary.
The long battle turned Scranton's 75,000 residents into the most politically pampered populace in the country. The local Democratic leader unblushingly describes the blue-collar city as the "epicenter" of American politics, and it's hard to prove him wrong.
Obama's Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, has been to this region twice since securing the nomination; his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, mentioned the city in her acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, and on Tuesday she will be in the same indoor athletics complex where Sunday's speeches took place.
Many in the crowd wore "Hillary Sent Me" buttons, and the senator received a louder reception than did the former president. She was unsparing in her praise of both men on the Democratic ticket.
"Barack Obama and Joe Biden are for you, and that's why I am for Barack Obama and Joe Biden," Clinton said. "My friends, this is an all-hands-on-deck moment for America. We've got to work hard, and we've got to work together. This is a fight for the future, and it is a fight we must win."
Clinton said she looked forward to "being on the back lawn of the White House, on a beautiful day like this, when President Obama signs into law quality, affordable health care for you and you and you."
On that day, Biden responded, Obama will hand the signing pen to Clinton for her work on the issue. He lavishly praised the senator from New York, saying, "Hillary and I truly, truly are friends."
Biden also delivered a tough speech about his "old friend" McCain, hammering the Republican for his reaction to the financial meltdown. He reminded the audience, in what has become a standard Democratic repetition, that McCain's initial response Sept. 15 to the turmoil on Wall Street was that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were "sound," followed several hours later by his saying that the economy was in "crisis."
"Folks, that's what we Catholics call an epiphany," the senator from Delaware said to laughter. "The problem with John McCain -- God love him, as my mother would say -- John's epiphany wasn't that he saw the light. What John saw was the presidency receding from his grasp."
Hillary Clinton is scheduled to campaign Monday in the "collar" suburbs around Philadelphia, where McCain is also scheduled to go this week. But Democrats are brimming with enthusiasm about the state, which Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) narrowly won in the 2004 election.
McCain had hoped to capitalize on some of the same misgivings about Obama that Clinton had exploited in the primary -- especially his remarks at a private fundraiser in California, when he said small-town voters sometimes "get bitter" and "cling to guns or religion" because of their frustrations.
But public polls in Pennsylvania show Obama with a double-digit lead. Obama made four campaign stops in Philadelphia on Saturday and has flooded the airwaves there with commercials. Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a strong Clinton supporter now working hard for Obama, said he believes the Democrat is in surprisingly good shape.
Obama is "doing as well in central Pennsylvania as any Democrat has done in a long time," said Rendell, who said economic worries have trumped any cultural concerns about Obama.
Democratic voter registration is up about 500,000 since 2004, and there are 1.2 million more Democrats than Republicans in the state.
The recent news has been such that Hillary Clinton felt the need to issue a warning.
"Sure, the polls show Barack and Joe ahead now, and that's good news," she said, but "nobody should be lulled into any false sense of security."
She noted there have been 10 presidential elections since she became active in politics, and Democrats "have only won three of them." She paused. "And, of course, Bill won two out of the three."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jimmy May -- Associated Press; Bill Clinton speaks at an Obama-Biden rally in Scranton, Pa. With him on the podium are Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., who was born in Scranton; his wife, Jill Biden; and the former president's wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
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Down, Down, Down East for the GOP?
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza And Ben Pershing
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 943 words
Amid signs that the Senate playing field has badly eroded for GOPers in the past two weeks, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is preparing to launch ads in Maine -- a contest until recently regarded as a long-shot pickup for Democrats.
The ads, which are set to go up early this week in the Portland media market at a cost of $150,000, are the first tangible evidence that Sen. Susan Collins (R) may not be shielded from the strong wind blowing in the face of Republicans nationally.
The NRSC did not respond to a request for comment about their latest ad buy, but Matt Miller, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was only too happy to cast the new commercials in Maine as a sign that another race had come into play for his side.
"Tom Allen has cut Susan Collins's lead in half in the past month, and now even the NRSC recognizes that he is showing momentum with three weeks to go," said Miller, pointing to a poll earlier this month that showed Collins at 49 percent, compared with 41 percent for Allen, a Democratic congressman. (Barack Obama led John McCain 52 percent to 35 percent in the state, according to the survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.)
Collins, first elected to the Senate in 1996 and reelected easily six years later, is a political moderate who came into the election cycle with extremely high job approval ratings, and Allen struggled for months -- and months -- to make any dent in despite running a solid and well-financed campaign.
But the focus on the financial crisis gripping Wall Street in recent weeks has caused a general movement toward Democrats nationwide.
Republican senators in Oregon, North Carolina, Kentucky, Minnesota and Georgia have seen their poll numbers sink during that time, and neutral handicappers, such as Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, have revised their predictions of Democratic gains significantly upward. Rothenberg, in his column for Roll Call newspaper, went so far as to say that the holy grail of a filibuster-proof 60-seat Democratic majority is a possibility.
Already two Republican-held open seats in Virginia and New Mexico are close to certain takeovers for Democrats. Two other seats in Colorado and New Hampshire lean in the direction of Democrats, and in a handful of other contests, in such states as Oregon, Alaska and Minnesota, the races are dead heats.
While gains for Democrats are a virtual certainty given the national playing field, if they want to pick up the nine seats they need to get to 60, the party must find a way to win in a state such as Maine (or Kentucky or Mississippi). The NRSC's decision to take to the airwaves in support of Collins is a sure signal that no Republican incumbent is safe in an environment as toxic as this one is for the GOP.
Bzzzzz!
With the final presidential debate scheduled for this week and the last session -- the "town hall" in Nashville -- garnering less-than-stellar reviews, organizers could be looking for ways to shake things up when John McCain and Barack Obama meet at Long Island's Hofstra University. The solution might just be in Indiana.
Last week, Larry Shickles, the Republican Party chairman in Indiana's 9th Congressional District, proposed a twist for the Oct. 21 debate between Rep. Baron P. Hill (D) and his GOP challenger, Michael E. Sodrel. No, Shickles did not suggest a longer "discussion period" or using questions from YouTube. He wanted a different addition -- polygraph machines.
"While this format may be unusual, I feel strongly that voters need to be able to make a clear decision without all the usual spin," Shickles wrote in a letter to his local Democratic counterpart, according to the Associated Press, suggesting that the candidates be hooked to the "lie detector" machines during the event.
Alas, it is not to be. Alan Johnson, dean of Vincennes University's Jasper campus, which will host the debate, told the Herald newspaper of Jasper: "Our planning committee worked up the format and rules, and we are not inviting negotiations from the candidates." (This despite the fact that Sodrel, a former congressman looking to regain his old seat in his fourth consecutive matchup against Hill, actually agreed to the proposal.)
Putting aside the debatable accuracy of polygraph machines, wouldn't strapping McCain and Obama into the contraptions make for a better debate on Wednesday?
Tweets, Short and Sweet
Bored with the second presidential debate last Tuesday night in Nashville? (And who wouldn't have been?) You should have checked out The Fix's Twittering of the proceedings -- as we dispensed observations on Life, the Universe and Everything. If you missed it, never fear. Some of our favorite tweets from the debate that was are below and you still have 48 hours to sign up for the Fix feed (http://www.twitter.com/thefix) before the final presidential set-to at Hofstra University on Wednesday night.
· "Obama forces McCain to explain his 'bomb Iran' comments. A nice moment for the Illinois Senator."
· "Lots of talk about 'fundamental differences' from both McCain and Obama. Trying to draw the lines for undecided voters."
· "McCain just called Obama 'that one.' Um, odd."
· "McCain brings out the big guns -- compares Obama to Hoover. The president not the vacuum."
2 DAYS: The granddaddy of them all -- the third and final presidential debate -- will go down in New York. Can McCain change the narrative? Does he need to?
16 DAYS: The cash-flush Obama campaign is buying 30 minutes of precious prime-time television on CBS and NBC to make a final appeal to voters just six days before the election. The last person to do that? Ross Perot!
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CORRECTION-DATE: October 14, 2008
CORRECTION: · The Monday Fix column in the Oct. 13 A-section incorrectly reported that the National Republican Senatorial Committee was launching ads in Maine's U.S. Senate race. The NRSC purchased ad time in the Portland, Maine, media market, but that expenditure was intended for New Hampshire's Senate race.
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Mark Wilson -- Getty Images; The second Obama-McCain debate made some long for polygraphs to spice up the third one. But you'll have to settle for The Fix's Twitter feed.
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Stuck In the Muck;
Mudslinging Isn't New. Here's the Messy Truth.
BYLINE: Libby Copeland; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1735 words
You want to talk dirty politics? Oh, we'll talk dirty. We'll talk about . . . 1800!
Thomas Jefferson was attacked by ministers who accused him of being an "infidel" and an "unbeliever." A Federalist cartoon depicted him as a drunken anarchist, and the president of Yale warned that if Jefferson came to power, "we may see our wives and daughters the victims of legal prostitution." A Connecticut newspaper warned that his election would mean "murder, robbery, rape, adultery and incest will openly be taught and practiced" -- though the paper, which is now the Hartford Courant, did apologize some years later.
In 1993. "You turned out to be a good influence on America," the editors wrote. Whoops! Never mind.
John Adams, the sitting president, got hit with his share of slung mud that year. James Callender, a journalist who was in league with Jefferson, told the country that Adams was a rageful, lying, warmongering fellow, a "repulsive pedant" and "gross hypocrite" who behaved neither like a man nor like a woman but instead possessed a "hideous hermaphroditical character." There was also a nasty rumor that Adams had sent his veep to Europe to bring back four mistresses, two for each of them.
Today's handwringers, who are disgusted by the tone of modern political campaigns, might be reassured (or slightly depressed) to learn that we've always been this way. Almost from the birth of the nation, presidential campaigns have been filled with vitriol and deception.
"Everybody always assumes there was a golden age of presidential campaigning that occurred 20 years ago," says Gil Troy, an American history scholar at McGill University. "Almost from the start, American politics had its two sides -- it had its Sunday morning high church sermon side, and it had its Saturday night rough-and-tumble ugly side."
Things have gotten negative in this year's presidential race lately, and there's been much discussion of when negative becomes dirty, and who's being dirty, and who's willing to get even dirtier. Reporters have been counting the negative ads, which are numerous on each side, and John McCain's wife has accused Barack Obama of conducting "the dirtiest campaign in American history," while Obama aide Robert Gibbs has said, "If people want to get down in the mud, we're prepared to get dirty."
Will anybody achieve the great lows of the 19th century, though?
The years "1800 and 1828 and the one against Lincoln, I think -- those were worse than anything we've had," says historian Paul F. Boller, who has written about the history of dirty politics and who, at 91, takes the long view of things.
Back in the day, political rhetoric was, as David Mark puts it in "Dirty Politics," "shriller, hyperbolic, and downright mean." It was racist -- more than one candidate was rumored as being half-this or part-that -- as well as hostile to certain religions and deeply personal. It was also occasionally bizarre. Historians differ on whether Jefferson was ridiculed for being raised on a diet of "hoe-cake" and "fricasseed bullfrog." During Martin Van Buren's presidency, a Pennsylvania congressman accused him of being so decadent that he landscaped the White House grounds into hills resembling "an Amazon's bosom."
Oh, "John Quincy Adams was accused of pimping for the czar," Troy says. Really. The czar of Russia. The press backing Jackson labeled Adams "The Pimp."
As historian Kathleen Hall Jamieson writes in "Packaging the Presidency," the Founding Fathers intended the nascent nation's elections to be a dignified, deliberative activity, carried out by a small number of wealthy, well-educated men. "The ideal unraveled rapidly." Vitriolic handbills and fiercely partisan newspapers took up one side or another. Laws about who could vote opened up the franchise -- somewhat, at least. Party identification was strong. Political feelings were expressed in the strong language of the time, and even people we think of now as above politics were not spared. To wit: George Washington.
"If ever a nation was debauched by a man, the American nation has been debauched by Washington," Benjamin Franklin's grandson wrote in 1796.
Or Abe Lincoln. According to an 1864 edition of Harper's Weekly, Lincoln was disparaged as a "Filthy Story-Teller," a "Buffoon," a "Usurper," a "Monster" and a "Land-Pirate," whatever that is. His enemies also described him as "A Long, Lean, Lank, Lantern-Jawed, High Cheeked-Boned Spavined Rail-Splitting Stallion," which actually makes Lincoln sound kind of hot, except for the "spavined" part. (We looked it up. It invokes horses with diseased joints, or more generally, decrepitude and decay.)
As Jamieson notes in another book, "Dirty Politics," long before there was potent television imagery juxtaposing an innocent girl with the threat of nuclear war (LBJ's '64 Daisy ad), or tying a menacing-looking black murderer to a Democratic candidate (the '88 Willie Horton ad), presidential campaigns were thick with oversimplified attacks aiming at the gut, not the intellect.
"Campaigns generally ally the favored candidate with things uncritically accepted, such as flag and freedom," Jamieson writes, "and tie the opponent to such viscerally noxious things as the murder of innocent men, women and children."
In the 1828 election, Jamieson writes, Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams got into a tiff we might call the War of the Handbills. Jackson's supporters distributed handbills portraying Adams as a nasty dude who drove away a "crippled old soldier" who asked for charity -- drove him away with a horsewhip, no less. Adams's supporters put out handbills undermining Jackson's reputation as a military hero by painting the general's execution of six deserting soldiers as a bloodthirsty act, invoking the image of gallant young men "welter[ing] in their gore!!" Jackson's supporters replied with handbills parodying their opponents' handbills, suggesting that Jackson had not executed the soldiers but "swallowed them whole, coffins and all, without the slightest attempt at mastication!!!!!!"
They were big on exclamation marks back in the day.
Joseph Cummins, the author of "Anything for a Vote," has compiled a list of top 10 historic smears and rumors, which he delivers Letterman-style over the phone from his home in Maplewood, N.J., counting down to one. Among the classics are "You're not tough enough," "You'll drive us into war," "You're too old" (sound familiar?), "You're an egghead" (sound familiar?) and "You're drunk all the time" -- the last of which, Cummins says, was more popular in the 19th century, for whatever reason. There were also the sexual accusations, like "You're a slut," which is Cummins's playful way of characterizing an enduring smear that has usually amounted to You're an immoral degenerate who has either preyed on a poor maiden or enjoys the company of a lascivious and money-grubbing bimbo, depending on how the love interest is portrayed.
There's also what Cummins calls "You're at least a little bit gay." When he served in the House, James Buchanan, a bachelor, and his housemate, Sen. William King of Alabama, were both the subject of such rumors. According to historian Jean H. Baker, King was known as "Aunt Fancy," while Buchanan was, in the words of Andrew Jackson, "Aunt Nancy."
In 1835, Davy Crockett -- who briefly considered a run for the presidency -- released a ghost-written campaign tract with one of those really long titles they used to use back then: "The life of Martin Van Buren, heir-apparent to the 'government,' and the appointed successor of General Andrew Jackson, Containing every authentic particular by which his extraordinary character has been formed, With a concise history . . . " You get the idea.
Inside, Crockett made note of Van Buren's baldness, described his face as "a good deal shrivelled," compared Van Buren to "dung" and described his personality as "secret, sly, selfish, cold, calculating." Then he got nasty. Van Buren, he wrote, was "a dandy. When he enters the senate chamber in the morning, he struts and swaggers like a crow in the gutter. He is laced up in corsets, such as women in a town wear, and, if possible, tighter than the best of them."
Tough rhetoric, though it's hard to say how many people would have heard it back when it was made. For the bulk of the 19th century, it was considered unseemly for presidential candidates to make speeches on their own behalf. The arguments over whom to vote for were circulated by surrogates and in written documents. As Jamieson points out in an interview, without television and radio and the Internet and with fewer people able to read, it's hard to gauge how many people heard the dirty stuff.
"That was an entirely different world," Jamieson says. "How do you measure the effect of a broadside? We don't know how many people saw it."
But in those instances when the candidates did speak, and an audience did hear them, it appears Americans back then -- just like Americans now -- had a taste for blood.
In 1858, during the first of the Lincoln-Douglas debates, as the Senate candidates argued over issues like the Dred Scott decision and the Missouri Compromise, their remarks about each other were thick with sarcasm. The crowd loved it. Much like the crowds at modern-day rallies, where people are apt to shout things like "Booo!" (about the opponent) and "You're a hottie!" (about Sarah Palin), the audience at the first Lincoln-Douglas debate erupted with cries like "hark" and "humbug" and "hit him again." At one point, as Lincoln prepared to read a document, a heckler cried, "Put on your specs!"
"Yes, sir, I am obliged to do so," Lincoln replied.
Stephen Douglas spoke condescendingly of Lincoln "following the example and lead of all the little abolition orators, who go around and lecture in the basements of schools and churches." He allowed that Lincoln had some good points -- as a young man, Lincoln had been top-notch at "running a foot-race" and "could ruin more liquor than all the boys of the town together." (Here we imagine Douglas doing a hearty 19th-century chortle.)
Lincoln responded by correcting the assertions of "Judge Douglas" on several matters, allowing that he was certain Douglas wasn't intending to lie. At one point, he said, "I know the judge is a great man, while I am only a small man" -- and then proceeded to gut him.
He also compared Douglas to an "obstinate animal" and added, "I mean no disrespect."
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CORRECTION: · An Oct. 13 Style article on negative politics misstated the title of a book by David Mark. It is called "Going Dirty," not "Dirty Politics."
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IMAGE; Upi; Both George Washington, at center in left picture, and John Adams, at right, were subject to some harsh language. James Buchanan, above, was referred to as "Aunt Nancy."
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What McCain Hasn't Tried
BYLINE: Fred Hiatt
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John McCain likes Barack Obama. He admires and respects Obama. He believes Obama is "very impressive, he's thoughtful, he's centrist." Obama has "probably got a great future." He is "a very honest and fine person" -- "absolutely" qualified to be president.
How do we know McCain feels this way? Because he said so, in public comments ranging from 2005 to as recently as May. And as the McCain campaign grew uglier last week -- casting Obama as dangerous, dishonest and un-American -- it was tempting to imagine the campaign McCain might have waged if he had based it on the respect for his opponent, and for the process, that he had long professed.
Last week, for example, McCain was angrily promising to "name the names" of those who caused the nation's worst financial crisis in decades. He was blaming Obama and his "cronies," and the "corruption" that Obama had "abetted" in Washington. Meanwhile, almost as if there were no meltdown, his running mate remained stuck on attacking Obama for "palling around with terrorists."
But imagine if McCain had selected for his running mate not a partisan attack dog but someone with deep knowledge of the economy and a record of reaching across the aisle.
Imagine if McCain himself had decided to respond to this crisis as an American first, a candidate second. "Yes," he might have said, "Democrats contributed to our problems with their lobbyist-fueled defense of Fannie and Freddie. But let's not pretend that Alan Greenspan, Phil Gramm, George W. Bush -- and John McCain -- weren't part of this, too. Warren Buffett saw this coming, but not many of the rest of us did. Let's postpone the recriminations and work together to fix this thing."
Last week, McCain was asking darkly, "Who is the real Senator Obama?" Imagine, instead, if he had followed his own advice from the spring, when he repudiated a state party attack ad that he said "distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats." Imagine if he were challenging Obama on those policy differences.
I'm sure, in the crazed intensity of a presidential campaign, it's easy to start believing your consultants and television ads -- believing that the other guy is dangerous and that only you can save the country. That must be especially true when the other guy is insulting you. The mud flies both ways in this campaign, with Obama and his allies relentlessly pounding McCain as out of touch, erratic, dishonest and, over and over again, dishonorable.
And honor is at the core of McCain's self-image. He's been running for president, more on than off, for almost a decade, but his determination hasn't had much to do with a highly defined ideology, program or set of policies. What underlies his ambition are values: service, patriotism, duty, honor.
It may be that it's easier for such a campaign to get blown off course. In an exceptionally pro-Democratic year, against an exceptionally unflappable opponent, it's not surprising that a campaign without bedrock policy goals would try first one thing, then another, with one of those things being character assassination.
I certainly can't prove that a McCain campaign built on respect and attention to issues would be faring better than the real thing. Without Sarah Palin to rally the base, and without the insidious questioning of Obama's patriotism, McCain might be even further behind.
But he also might be doing better -- and he might be happier, too. That, at least, is one way to interpret an intriguing exchange that took place at a rally in Minnesota on Friday.
A woman took the microphone to say that Obama could not be trusted because he is an "Arab" -- not a surprising misconception, given the Republicans who have taken to stressing Obama's middle name, Hussein. But McCain rebuked her: "No, ma'am, he's a decent family man, a citizen, who I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. And that's what this campaign is all about."
It's not what this campaign is all about, and as McCain was speaking, his campaign ads were calling Obama a liar. But it's what the campaign could have been about, if McCain had really wanted it that way.
fredhiatt@washpost.com
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October 13, 2008 Monday
Regional Edition
The World Vote;
Barack Obama is almost universally favored over John McCain outside the United States. Should that matter to Americans?
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BY NOW it is well known that if the rest of the world had a vote, Barack Obama would be the next U.S. president. Polls and studies by the Pew foundation, BBC and the Gallup organization have shown that Europeans, Latin Americans, Africans and Asians not only favor Mr. Obama overwhelmingly over John McCain but believe he will improve U.S. relations with the rest of the world. Americans seem to be attracted by such findings; polls here show that many voters are concerned about the deterioration of U.S. prestige during the Bush administration and want the next president to restore it. This invites a question: If Mr. Obama were elected, how likely would he be to fulfill those high expectations? And could he really deliver results that are beyond the grasp of Mr. McCain? The answer is not as obvious as the survey results suggest.
One caveat comes in the report of the Pew Global Attitudes Project, which points out that Obamamania is largely absent in the region where U.S. influence most needs a boost: the Middle East. Only 34 percent of Lebanese, 31 percent of Egyptians and 22 percent of Jordanians said they have confidence in Mr. Obama to do the right thing in world affairs; in Pakistan the figure was 10 percent. Israel is one of the few countries in the world where at least some polls have shown Mr. McCain leading Mr. Obama. Many Israelis fear that Mr. Obama will be too soft on Iran; many Arabs predict that he will be too soft on Israel. The new administration, whether that of Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain, may have to accept anti-Americanism in Pakistan as the price of staying on the offensive against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
Mr. Obama's huge popularity in Western Europe -- his favorable ratings are over 80 percent in France and Germany -- seems to reflect an expectation that the Democrat would reverse the policies of President Bush. But Mr. Obama favors sending large numbers of additional troops to Afghanistan, while public opinion in every NATO country but Britain favors withdrawal. At the governmental level, some senior officials in Germany, France and Britain say that they object to Mr. Obama's plan to pursue negotiations with Iran unconditionally; the European policy has been to require Tehran first to suspend work on its nuclear program. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are likely to alleviate two of the largest irritants in U.S.-European relations by closing the Guantanamo Bay prison and adopting a serious program to combat climate change.
The outpouring of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama in places such as Berlin -- where a smaller share of people say they have favorable views of the United States than in Russia or China -- seems to reflect a longing to repair a broken relationship. An Obama presidency offers the possibility of building on those sentiments. Mr. McCain would have to start cold. Neither may have a good chance of obtaining more European troops for Afghanistan or major new sanctions against Iran. But on the intangible but critical question of American prestige and the willingness to accept U.S. leadership that comes with it, Mr. Obama has more to offer.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 13, 2008 Monday 1:00 PM EST
Election 2008: Ground Games;
Obama Has Bodies to Win Get-Out-the-Vote Aspect of Race
BYLINE: Alec MacGillis, Washington National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2619 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post national political reporter Alec MacGillis will be online Monday, Oct. 13 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss his article comparing the field operations of the Obama and McCain campaigns, and what Obama's numerical edge could translate into on Election Day.
Washington Post national political reporter Alec MacGillis will be online Monday, Oct. 13 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss his article comparing the field operations of the Obama and McCain campaigns, and what Obama's numerical edge could translate into on Election Day.
Obama Camp Relying Heavily on Ground Effort (Post, Oct. 12)
Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.
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Kensington, Md.: I keep hearing about the huge advantage Obama has for getting out the vote in some states because he has so many more field offices there. While I hope that's true, I always thought that getting out the vote was done with phone-banking, which can be done from anywhere via the magic of volunteers' unlimited long distance plans on their cell phones? What good is having local offices?
Alec MacGillis: Hello everyone, thanks for joining us here today. I'm glad to take any of your campaign questions but am especially interested in any thoughts you have on the campaigns' ground organizations, which are obviously going to be a big decider in the home stretch, and which we wrote about in an article yesterday.
I'll start with this good question here, which really gets at one of the differences between the campaigns. Obama has spent a lot on offices -- more than 700 around the country, 51 in Virginia, 56 in Florida, 71 in Ohio. More than $1.4 million in rent as of August. You're right, this might seem odd given that phone calling can be done from anywhere now. But here's why they do it -- they think the visibility helps them. One of the pillars of their ground game is that they want the campaign to be as easy as possible to access for potential volunteers. That means a top-flight Web site but it also means having an actual office on as many Main Streets as possible so that people can just wander in.
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paulhrice: I'm from a pretty important state, Florida, and I don't know anyone that has seen or heard from any of these workers and volunteers.
Alec MacGillis: Really? That's interesting. Where in Florida are you? What this may get at is that for all Obama's organizational manpower, the campaign has actually been pacing itself to some degree -- it spent most of the summer and even into September building up its ranks of volunteers, arranging them in "neighorhood teams" covering 8-10 precincts each, and also registering new voters. It's only now that it has moved more aggressively into traditioal canvassing/voter persuasion in a lot of places.
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Fairfax County, Va.: As a typical Obama volunteer in Northern Virginia, I was tickled again this past weekend to see references in several newspapers and TV shows to Obama volunteers as "college kids." Sometimes it is the McCain campaign being dismissive, but sometimes it's the journalists, too. Of course, the paid field staff consists largely of twentysomethings who still have the stamina to work 24-7, bless their hearts. But the amazing thing is that actual, local volunteers are more likely to be middle-aged, like me (I'm 46 -- one year younger than Barack).
We talk about it among ourselves all the time. There are still college kids, retirees and high-schoolers, but now the rest of us have shown up. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to be thought of as a college kid at my age, but where does this come from? It's so nearly universal and so inaccurate that I really am curious.
Alec MacGillis: You raise a very good point, and something I think a lot of people have been getting wrong about the Obama organization. No doubt, Obama is being helped by a probably unprecedented surge of youth/college support. But it's a mistake to assume that it's college students who are driving the ground game. Yes, the paid field organizers tend to be young, mostly in their 20s, and some are indeed college students who have taken a leave for the campaign. But the vast majority of volunteers are older than that, so much so that it creates an interesting kind of reverse parent-child dynamic in the field offices, where you have 23 yearolds giving guidance to a lot of 45-year-old moms and dads. Part of this misunderstanding, I think, comes from some wishful thinking from Republicans who are hoping that the Obama ground effort will turn out to be as shallow as what Howard Dean mustered in Iowa four years ago, when he had a lot of young supporters coming in from out of state to go door to door, all of them identified by orange stocking caps. Results suggested that didn't go over too well on caucus day. But Obama's volunteer ranks are simply a different animal than that.
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New York: Can you explain why the McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan, where polls show Obama with an eight-point lead, but is fighting hard in Wisconsin, where polls show Obama with an eight-point lead?
Alec MacGillis: This is a good question. A lot of us were surprised by the Michigan withdrawal because it seemed like a Kerry state where some local dynamics actually worked against Obama -- Gov. Granholm being blamed for the bad economy there, the Detroit mayor's sex and ethics scandal, the fact that Obama never campaigned there during the primaries. One theory is that the economic news in Michigan has been so extraordinarily bad (huge drops in car sales on top of the market collapse) that McCain figured that the economic dynamic he was fighting would be extra strong there. Also, Michigan's more expensive to advertise in than Wisconsin so pulling out there saved more money. Wisconsin was closer in '04 than Michigan was. And perhaps demographics played into it as well -- Michigan's African-American population is far bigger than Wisconsin's. But you're right, Wisconsin is tough territory as well -- Obama did well in the primary there, and it's got some of that same Upper Midwest progressive/populist tendency that has helped Obama in Minnesota and Iowa.
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Bainbridge Island, Wash.: The usual "state combined campaign" has now been co-opted by the Obama "campaign for change." We're still taking orders from the state party, but we see some efforts coming from Chicago. I don't really think is an entirely bad thing, but we know Obama is going to win the Evergreen State. The much tighter race is Gov. Gregoire's re-election bid. Is there normally a little bit of National-Local friction in these efforts?
Alec MacGillis: There definitely is always that kind of friction, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit more of it this year especially in places where Obama is well ahead but downticket races are closer, like Gregoire's. My sense is that the Obama campaign has been much more assertive in taking the lead in a lot of states and more reluctant than past presidential campaigns to let itself be subsumed into a 'coordinated' approach. In some states they weeks ago agreed at least in name to go the coordinate route, but in others they won't really be doing true coordination until the final GOTV push, when all Democratic canvassers will be working toward the same goal of getting their voters out.
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Baltimore: Do you think how candidates organize campaigns is a good predictor of how they will perform as president? Hillary loved to claim she would be "ready from day one," but her campaign never seemed ready for primetime. Fair?
Alec MacGillis: That certainly was a knock against Hillary's claims to executive capability, just as Obama's partisans have cited his well-run campaign as proof that he would fare well in office. But one can always find a counter-example, right? Karl Rove ran a great turnout campaign for Bush in 2004, but a year later we had Katrina. There are, after all, some differences between campaigning and governing.
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McLean, Va.: Wow, no mention of ACORN and voter fraud in the entire article. Do you think you are providing unbiased reporting? It seems that the Obama campaign's effort on the ground has created an atmosphere where Obama volunteers will do whatever they can to get voters, including voter fraud. Is this a risk?
Alec MacGillis: I've gotten several questions about ACORN, which is much in the news now. I think there is an important distinction to make here. Questions have indeed been raised in several states about ACORN workers submitting blatantly bogus registrations to state officials -- the names of pro football players, etc. But realize what this means -- this is voter registration fraud, but it is not proof of actual voter fraud until someone actually shows up at the polls trying to vote under one of these bogus names, and there is no sign yet of that being attempted. From all indications, these workers are defrauding ACORN itself -- they are submitting false names to get paid more for their work. Indeed, ACORN has cooperated on the investigation in Nevada. This is not to say that that organization or any other will not be bending any rules on Election Day, and we'll be monitoring things closely on that score. But what has been reported so far is simply another matter.
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Bethesda, Md.: Although there is a bit of time left in this election, I do have to say that one underlying theme that keeps coming up: "A candidate is only as good as his or her campaign staff." This was true with Hillary's campaign and possibly for McCain's. Your thoughts?
Alec MacGillis: This kind of goes to a similar question we already had. It's true that both Hillary's and McCain's campaign have experienced more dissension and less consistency in approach than has Obama's. But isn't it possible that this is in fact a reflection of the candidate? From all we know of Obama, his main mantra to his staff from the start of the campaign has been 'no drama.' It seems quite possible that he hired people who he thought would follow that edict, and the campaign's cohesion is just a matter of people heeding his word.
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Dumb question: Is there any connection between the organizational skills that Obama brought to (or learned from) his work as a community organizer in Chicago, and the fact that his campaign is well-organized? Or are these different kinds of "organization"?
Alec MacGillis: This is something I was hoping to get into more in the article we ran yesterday but lacked the space for. No doubt, Obama's background as organizer -- and as someone who led a 150,000 person voter registration drive in Chicago in 1992 -- has played a big role in the campaign's bottom-up approach. But what's interesting is that in some ways the campaign is doing things differently than what Obama did as an organizer, perhaps because of the lessons he drew from that experience, which his memoir makes clear was quite frustrating and far more fruitless than the way he now makes it out to be on the trail. Obama's organizing was modeled on the theories of Saul Alinsky, the organizing guru who believed in trying to appeal to people's self-interest by finding some practical issue or need in their life to engage them on -- better housing, etc. This didn't get Obama very far on the South Side, and he eventually gave it up for law school. What the campaign is now operating on is a different school of thought put forward by Marshall Ganz, another organizing theorist, who worked with Cesar Chavez. Ganz argues for "values-based" organizing, getting people to rally around a whole set of shared values rather than specific issues. He argues that this is what the conservative movement has done to great effect in the past few decades. And it's what he's been training Obama organizers and volunteers in over the past two years. He thinks it's one reason why Obama's been successful and thinks it could give Democrats a more sustained movement after this campaign if it catches on.
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New York: Why would McCain campaign in Iowa, given that the conventional wisdom says the state is in Obama's column and McCain should focus his scant resources on shoring up his defenses in Ohio/Florida/Pennsylvania/Virginia, etc.? Is there another line of thinking on this?
Alec MacGillis: You're right, McCain's emphasis on Iowa has puzzled a lot of people, given that Obama has such a base there thanks to the caucus, that the state has been trending more Democratic in general, and that McCain has been staunchly anti-ethanol for so long. My best guess: the campaign may believe that Sarah Palin's popularity with evangelical Christians can make a difference in Iowa, which has a strong social conservative community. It's worth noting in this context that McCain's director of evangelical outreach nationally is Marlys Popma, a legendary social conservative activist from Iowa, and she may really believe that Iowa can be turned by Palin. But it's also possible that McCain's experience in the caucus -- when he saw Mike Huckabee surge out of nowhere large thanks to evangelicals -- may have given him a slightly distorted view of the state.
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Malvern, Pa.: An interesting article this morning about the possibility of the Republican National Committee moving all of its money into down-ballot races and cutting McCain loose. Do you think this is a real possibility? In retrospect, given where we are today with the economy and credit crisis, would McCain have been better off picking Portman or Romney?
Alec MacGillis: This is definitely something to keep an eye on -- we noted this morning that the RNC is now pouring money into Maine to help Susan Collins, whose lead is shrinking. It seems, though, as if the party will want to wait at least a little while longer to see if McCain's self-desribed 'comeback' push gets any traction. There is a flip side to this as well, of course -- at some point will Obama feel pressure to try to help out Senate challengers in Georgia or Mississippi to try to get that filibuster-proof majority?
On veeps: no doubt, the pick might have been different had the markets crashed a couple weeks earlier. But do not underestimate just how much distaste there is within the McCain campaign toward Mitt Romney following the primaries. That surely was a factor in passing him over.
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Arlington, Va.: Is there are way to find out the number of people voting early in the various states that allow it? In Virginia the early voting started a couple weeks ago, and the demand appears to be high.
Alec MacGillis: There is, in some states, and we'll try to keep tabs on this. In Ohio, the results from the first week of early voting showed low participation, which Republicans took as a heartening sign that Obama's operation there wasn't as strong as touted. But it's possible that the campaign there was still focusing on registration, and waiting til the registration deadline had passed to focus on early voting.
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Re: paulhrice: My mother lives in St. Pete, Fla. She's been working hard on registering, and now they're proceeding to canvassing and preparing for getting out the vote. Apparently she gets a better reception when she wears a Tampa Bay Rays jersey.
Alec MacGillis: Yes, that fits with the schedule they've been following. But wow, just a year ago, who'd have thought that a Rays jersey would be a sign of local pride. As a Sox fan, native of western Massachusetts, I'll just have to let that pass for now.
And with that, I'm going to sign off for today. Thanks to all for the good questions, and see you back next time.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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October 13, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Shailagh Murray, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3457 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray will be online Monday, Oct. 13 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.
Submit your questions and comments before or during today's discussion.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Chicago: Good morning and thanks for chatting. What is the one election result (House, Senate or individual state result for president) that come Nov. 5 we will all be saying "wow I never saw that one coming"? It obviously can't be something virtually impossible, like McCain carrying Vermont or Obama carrying Alabama, but there must be a few races out there where a huge upset is possible. If so, which one of those possibilities is most likely to be the topic of conversation on Nov. 5?
Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone and greetings from Toledo, where Sen. Obama is preparing for his final debate on Wednesday. Bring on your questions -- and thanks in advance for participating.
Chicago, in terms of upsets, the wild card here is the degree to which Obama draws stronger-than-expected turnout in some weird places. He may not win, say, Georgia, but heavy Democratic volume could could conceivably cost Saxby Chambliss his Senate seat. Similarly, Rep. Virgil Goode -- whose seat includes part of Charlottesville, Va., could get swamped, and Republicans could lose that Kenny Hulsoff seat in central Missouri, because part of it includes Columbia.
In terms of states, I think I just saw a poll that had Obama up in North Dakota. I don't see any big surprises for McCain, but hey, we still have three weeks to go.
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Voting early in Iowa: This very morning, there was a satellite voting place set up in my university campus building. There's a steady stream of folks voting, probably 70 percent students. Poll watchers for both campaigns are monitoring the action.
Shailagh Murray: I love these reports and will post anything along these lines that you folks send me over the next hour.
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Reston, Va.: I think it's pretty clear we're going to see a change in leadership on the House GOP side, but what about in the Senate? If McConnell is re-elected, does he keep his spot as minority leader? Who could challenge him? Jim DeMint?
Shailagh Murray: Excellent question. You cannot underestimate the potential for a total GOP meltdown if the party gets wiped out next month. And the biggest group left standing will be committed post-1994 conservatives. I do not see a DeMint rising up in the Senate -- nobody particularly likes the guy -- but I also don't see many options beyond a reshuffling of the current team. If Harry Reid comes out with 57 or 58 votes, the most powerful people in the Senate will be a handful of Republicans like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, along with Joe Lieberman.
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Detroit: I have been impressed with the strategic thinking of the Obama media buys -- advertising on the Big Ten network, during NFL and college football games and during the Sunday shows. I understand that Obama is flush with money, but I have not seen a single McCain ad during these days; am I missing something?
Shailagh Murray: We have received numerous reports from readers noting the exact same thing -- Obama is everywhere, and no evidence of McCain. No question, Obama has a crushing cash advantage at this point, and obviously McCain has pulled out of your home state, but I don't understand why McCain's national ads aren't getting noticed, and why folks are saying he seems dark in places like Pennsylvania and Indiana.
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New York: Shailagh, do you agree with CBS News reporter Dean Reynolds that the McCain campaign treats the press better than the Obama campaign does? Reynolds blogged on the CBS site that the Obama press plane is dirty and smelly, and the staff doesn't keep the press informed about Obama's plans or whereabouts. I thought they were so well organized? Thanks!
washingtonpost.com: Reporter's Notebook: Seeing How the Other Half Lives (CBSnews.com, Oct. 7)
Shailagh Murray: I like Dean a lot, but I don't share his frustrations. Definitely we're all sick of the road (and the TV folks absolutely have it worse than the print reporters). But the Obama travel staff, and the charter folks and advance people, could not be more helpful. I just had breakfast with a McCain reporter who agreed that they're a real stand-out group, compared to previous campaigns we had both covered. But it's been a long, long road, and yes, that plane does look pretty shabby.
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Bethesda, Md.: What topic(s) will the debate this Wednesday night cover?
Shailagh Murray: The subject is the economy, so I assume they will stick to that.
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Is it over?: I keep getting the feeling when I see reporters on TV that y'all aren't really allowed to say it out loud, but Obama has, for all intents and purposes, already won the election. Is it just wishful thinking, or is there any way McCain can still pull this out of the dumper for the GOP?
Shailagh Murray: I have certainly learned this year to expect the unexpected, and I would imagine most campaign reporters would concur. Does Obama have some pretty clear advantages right now? Yes. Is his turn-out operation far superior? Probably more so than we even realize. But that's all we know for sure at this point.
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Indianapolis: We're getting a ton of Obama ads here; the only McCain ads are RNC commercials. I don't know whether Obama can carry Indiana, but it's nice to know that my vote might count this year, for a change.
Shailagh Murray: From the Hoosier front lines...
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Providence, R.I.: Shalaigh, I thought that, with the Republican National Committee coffers plus his own, McCain's finances were on a par with Obama's. Now I hear he's got less money. Did Obama raise a boatload since his nomination? Thanks.
Shailagh Murray: Yes, it appears there is no recession in Chicago. I think we will see an absolutely jawdropping total for September.
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Frederick, Md.: He's dark in the Washington D.C. metro area, which targets Virginia too. If he doesn't carry Virgnia, he has zero chance to pull an upset. It makes no sense -- it's like he's waving a white flag. Are they waiting for the last debate? Waiting for the market to rebound? Waiting for the last week of the campaign? Waiting for Godot? As a McCain supporter, it is dispiriting.
Shailagh Murray: Don't do anything drastic, McCain supporter. But I would expect that your candidate has probably cut his losses in Maryland and No. Virginia.
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Fairfax, Va.: How will all the early voting affect Election Night returns? Will these ballots be counted along with the ones cast on Election Day or what?
Shailagh Murray: Yes, they are counted on election day. But most election offices report the number of ballots they receive on a regular basis before election day -- which field organizers use to narrow their target lists.
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Henly, Texas : I'm sure I'm among a tiny number of people who read most of the Palin investigator's actual report. I was struck not by the criminality (or lack thereof) of her actions, but by what a small person she seems to be. After all, carrying on a grudge solely for the sake of personal retribution for years after a divorce is much more "Jerry Springer" than "Meet the Press." Doesn't the report raise more of a character question than a legal question about Palin and her fitness for the second-highest office in the land?
washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Palin Talks to Alaska Reporters about Troopergate (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 12)
Shailagh Murray: But it's perfect fodder for the HBO series or Coen Bros. movie that will surely arise from all this.
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Athens, Ga.: I voted last week, and a local paper says that our region already had more than 250,000 early votes! Yay.
Shailagh Murray: Memo to Saxby Chambliss...
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El Segundo, Calif.: Hi Shailagh. The other day I saw on the Daily Beast blog that Christopher Buckley (son of William F.) endorsed Obama. He did it there because he didn't have the stomach to endure abuse similar to that hurled against conservative partisans like Kathleen Parker when she said Sarah Palin was an embarrassment. Now there is a headline in The Washington Post that says the head of the GOP in Virginia compared Obama to bin Laden. The conservative base seems to have lost control of itself. Comment?
washingtonpost.com: GOP Head Compares Obama to Bin Laden (Post, Oct. 13)
Shailagh Murray: The Republican Party surely seems woefully short on leadership, doesn't it? Everyone seems to be working off their own script. I would note that it's an approach without a promising track record.
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Ad Buys: Do you think McCain, because of his funding issues or lack therefo, is reserving his cash for the final "surge" that will take place in the last five or 10 days before the election to target areas of concern with ad blitzes? That may be too little too late, but it also may be the only options left at this point, given that he is broke. Secondly, do you think Palin has helped or hurt McCain beyond the base? He clearly cannot win with only that support group.
Shailagh Murray: Clearly, if McCain's resources are limited -- and we know they are -- he will have to start narrowing his focus to a few key states where he has a clear shot. One of his problems, it seems to me -- but I would note that I've focused almost exclusively on Obama this year -- is that he's playing on the same map as his Democratic opponent, which he can no longer afford to do. A week or so from now, it seems unrealistic that he can afford to go all out in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, etc. I saw ad spending numbers last week that showed McCain spending more in Iowa than in other states where the polls are much closer. Who knows, this could all make sense. Like I've said many times, nothing would surprise me.
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Gettysburg, Pa.: Have you heard anything from GOP insiders about how bad they expect their losses to be this fall?
Shailagh Murray: In the House, they're looking at a spread of about 15-25. In the Senate, I'd say the range is 4-9.
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Kensington, Md.: Sarah Palin characterized the "abuse of power" finding by the Alaska legislature as a politically motivated witchhunt by "Obama supporters." How can that be when both the legislature at large and the committee that ran the investigation were controlled by Republicans? Is the Alaska GOP for Obama? Has anyone asked her about this incredible excuse?
Shailagh Murray: She was grilled on it over the weekend and news organizations have called her out on it. Especially ABC -- check that website.
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Chantilly, Va.: Why on earth would any politician voluntarily show up for a sports event in Philadelphia? I know Gov. Palin is big on hockey, but she picked a city that is infamous for booing Santa Claus and their own superstars (not to mention throwing a few batteries). Wouldn't Pittsburgh have been a wiser option for wooing Pennsylvanians?
Shailagh Murray: I could not agree more. That one was a total mystery.
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Albany, N.Y.: Is there any chance we'll see the old McCain -- the straight-talking maverick who captured America's heart -- in the final few weeks of the campaign?
washingtonpost.com: Kristol: Fire the Campaign (New York Times, Oct. 13)
Shailagh Murray: I think those chances are probably pretty good. But he's going to have to be consistent and even creative about it, in order to make an impact that this point.
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Reston, Va.: With respect to voter turnout, any idea why ACORN's ... issues ... aren't getting much play in the media?
Shailagh Murray: I think that issue is getting some attention. And will get more attention, undoubtedtly, depending on what unfolds.
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Falls Church, Va. : I don't think McCain is dark in Virginia, but I do see about four Obama ads for every McCain ad.
Shailagh Murray: Update from Falls Church.
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McLean, Va.: Maybe I'm cynical, but I'm still concerned that voters will get into the booth on Nov. 4 and have an oh-my-god moment and balk at voting for Obama because he's black or because his name is funny or something like that. There's not really any way for polling to get at this possibility, right? Am I driving myself crazy, or do you think this is legitimately something to worry about?
Shailagh Murray: Yes, you are driving yourself crazy. This is called bracing yourself for the inevitable disappointment that Democrats have come to expect from general elections. Obama has faced voters in every state, right? And he's done pretty well -- or well enough to get to this point. No question, a lot of people are going to feel weird about voting for him, because he's so different from the old white guy model we've known all these centuries. But the narrative is so different this year that it's hard to see anything clearly.
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Sarasota, Fla.: McCain may be invisible in some places, but on ABC last night I twice saw McCain ads followed by Obama ads back-to-back.
Shailagh Murray: A sighting in Florida.
_______________________
Atlanta: Well, about a year and a half ago McCain was completely written off. The press was talking about Romney as the nominee, saying that McCain most definitely would not make it past New Hampshire. Now, I know it looks pretty bleak for McCain -- but seriously, I never would rule him out.
Shailagh Murray: Exactly. Plus, if we were to rule him out, what would we do for the next three weeks?
_______________________
In rely to Kensington, Md.: While the Alaska Senate has a majority of Republicans, the "majority party" is actually a bipartisan group of moderate Republicans and Democrats. The head of this group was quoted immediately following Palin's nomination as saying that she wasn't qualified to be governor, let alone vice president. Palin is more closely aligned with the "republican minority" group.
Shailagh Murray: From our Arctic front.
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Palin in Philadelphia : She was at the Philadelphia Flyers game because the owner is an ultra-right-wing conservative. I think he is the leader/founder/funder of Freedom Watch. I heard she was booed lustily, and that you can hear it over the loud music.
Shailagh Murray: I would not go before a Philly crowd of any kind, for any reason, unless I'd won a title for one of their teams.
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"She was grilled on it over the weekend"?: Palin did a press conference?!
Shailagh Murray: Check on the network sites, and on the political blogs, but at one point Saturday or Sunday she did a conference call with reporters, and eventually sort of backed off her assessment that she had been fully cleared.
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Re: Reston, Va.: More coverage of ACORN would be great, to show the difference between registration fraud (somewhat common) and electoral fraud (almost unexistent). It also would show how ACORN and any other voter registration agency has to submit any possibly fraudulent registrations to the state electoral boards. Finally, as a lesson of simple statistics: If you do something 95 percent perfect, but that something is registering 1,000,000 new voters, 5 percent of people filling out "joke" registrations will result in 50,000 rejected registrations.
Shailagh Murray: More on Acorn.
_______________________
New York: Just a comment: I'm at home today (thanks Christopher Columbus!) and just saw two Obama ads during "The Price is Right." I dunno, but that seems like a good ad buy for Obama, reaching housewives, etc. What do you think?
Shailagh Murray: And we wonder why his numbers with women have gotten so strong.
_______________________
Princeton, N.J.: How about Paul Krugman winning the Nobel Prize? Is everybody out to get Bush and McCain?
washingtonpost.com: Columnist Paul Krugman Wins Nobel Economics Prize (Post, Oct. 13)
Shailagh Murray: Oh come on, those Swedes are a bunch of socialists.
_______________________
Endorsements: Barack Obama picked up at least 16 newspaper endorsements this weekend, including six in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. John McCain, as far as Editor and Publisher knows, gained just two. Do you think this matters, in the greater scheme of things?
Shailagh Murray: It just feeds the perception that he's the frontrunner. I do think the small paper endorsements can have an impact in their communities; but for papers that have a clear editorial slant, the impact probably isn't as great.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.: We've seen Gordon Smith running ads highlighting his work across the aisle with Democrats, even John Kerry, but as things look more and more out of reach for John McCain, do you expect to see Republicans senators and House members in tight races running ads talking about the importance of divided government and putting a check on a potential Obama administration?
Shailagh Murray: I doubt it. Keep in mind that many of the contested House districts are in the suburbs, where people are not keen on partisanship. Plus, I don't many folks vote defensively.
_______________________
Kansas City, Mo.: Missouri must be a toss-up, as during the evening news last night I think I saw at least two McCain ads and two Obama ads. ... On the ACORN thing, is there any way to require the government to have their citizens in the voter registration database? Don't companies with stock ownership have to make a strong effort to ensure all stock owners can vote? Why can't governments work together on this? It would eliminate the need and the complaining about ACORN...
Shailagh Murray: I'm still depressed about the Mizzou game.
Obviously if we're going to have a lot of people voting in this country, as opposed to our usual bare minimum, then the whole process is going to have to be overhauled.
_______________________
Washington: The market is up strongly today. If this trend continues and we see a real upswing in investor confidence, do you think Obama's numbers will tank?
Shailagh Murray: Ummm, no. Can we collectively agree to stop viewing the stock market as the economy? GM, GE, United Airlines, Apple, all those small businesses in strip malls near your house -- that's the economy.
_______________________
Minnesota: I saw my first Obama ad yesterday. It had been all McCain up until then.
Shailagh Murray: Another dispatch...
_______________________
Poplar Bluff, Mo.: Southeast Missouri, a very conservative area with plenty of McCain yard signs, is being saturated with Obama ads from local TV network affiliates. Is McCain-Feingold coming back to haunt its sponsor?
Shailagh Murray: I think the Obama campaign actually charges for yard signs.
_______________________
Iowa: I don't think the new "nice guy" McCain is just happenstance. I think they planned to go as far as they possibly could in the "attack Obama" mode and then have McCain walk away from it at the last minute, when all the negative ideas already had been planted firmly in the voters' minds.
Shailagh Murray: It's going to be tough for Sen. McCain. People are following this election very closely. Their perceptions of both candidates may not have solidified, but they have been forming over a long period of time, based on many events and experiences. So it's hard to reverse course without carrying all your baggage with you.
At the end of the day, these are rough times for a lot of folks, and I expect most voters view the election as a very serious exercise. In the next three weeks, both candidates better bring their A games.
Thanks for all the great questions, and see you in two weeks. Cheers, Shailagh
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washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: Comparing the Campaigns' Ground Games (washingtonpost.com, 1 p.m. ET today)
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 13, 2008 Monday 9:41 AM EST
The Bus to Nowhere
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 2751 words
HIGHLIGHT: INDIANAPOLIS -- The reporters waded gingerly into two-inch-deep mud and settled behind scratched wooden tables as Barack Obama was being introduced to more than 10,000 screaming fans at the state fairgrounds here.
INDIANAPOLIS -- The reporters waded gingerly into two-inch-deep mud and settled behind scratched wooden tables as Barack Obama was being introduced to more than 10,000 screaming fans at the state fairgrounds here.
Before the Democratic nominee took the podium, the text of his speech arrived by BlackBerry. The address was carried by CNN, Fox and MSNBC. While he was still delivering his applause lines, an Atlantic blogger posted excerpts. And despite the huge foot-stomping crowd that could barely be glimpsed from the media tent, most reporters remained hunched over their laptops.
Does the campaign trail still matter much in an age of digital warfare? Or is it now a mere sideshow, meant to provide the media with pretty pictures of colorful crowds while the guts of the contest unfold elsewhere? And if so, are the boys (and girls) on the bus spinning their wheels?
"Anything interesting that happens on the road is going to be eaten up before you can get to it," says Slate correspondent John Dickerson. "By the time you see the papers, you feel like you know it all."
On the road, some of the nation's top print journalists morph into bloggers who post paragraphs on each mini-development, giving them a more stenographic role that leaves less time for actual reporting, or even thinking. Obama advisers have concluded that newspaper and magazine stories no longer have the same resonance but that a brief item by, say, Politico bloggers can spread like wildfire.
With a single correspondent's campaign travel costing as much as $10,000 a week, the number of cash-strapped news organizations willing to pony up has been dwindling in recent years. Only five newspapers -- the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune -- are traveling regularly with Obama and John McCain. The big regional papers, USA Today and Time magazine are there only intermittently, and Newsweek, which had been a constant presence on the trail, pulled back last week for financial reasons. (The networks, which used young off-air "embeds" during much of the primary season, now have front-line correspondents on board to do daily live shots.)
In the slower-paced, pre-cable age, what newspaper reporters wrote each day had major impact. These days, the candidates' rallies are often carried live on cable. Top strategists hold dueling conference calls for the press and send out the audio for those who miss it. Each new ad is instantly on YouTube, each new e-mail assault splashed across the Web. What, then, is the value of being on the plane?
"Having a blog is a terrific bonus for me because I get to put out everything I know in a constant way," says Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times. But, she says, "being on the plane is very, very expensive and does not necessarily provide stuff you could not get elsewhere. When you have limited resources, it's a corner to cut."
The greatest advantage of campaign travel, journalists say, is access to senior officials who rarely return calls or e-mails. Beyond that, says Chicago Tribune reporter Jill Zuckman, "you look at a campaign with a more critical eye when you're there. You get a better sense of crowds and enthusiasm levels and mood that you cannot get off TV."
Lack of access is accepted as a given. Obama held his last press availability two weeks ago, while McCain -- once renowned for his nonstop schmoozing with journalists -- has held one brief news conference in a month and a half.
Boston Globe reporter Sasha Issenberg, who covers McCain, says he gets more richly textured stories on the road. But, he says, "I haven't had any personal interaction with McCain for months. In any reasonable cost-benefit analysis . . . it's probably getting harder to justify. When we're on the plane and there's no TV and you can't read blogs, we're more walled off from the story we're covering than I would be if I were in my bureau."
David Broder, the Post veteran who covered his first White House campaign in 1960, says the daily speeches chronicled by journalists were once newsworthy. But campaign officials eventually "learned that that let the reporters decide what the sound bite of the day was. They could control that by shrinking the options that reporters had. You went to the abandoned mill or polluted stream and delivered your two sentences, and that was it for the day."
As recently as 2000, Broder recalls having dinner with McCain three nights in a row while working on a profile. Now, he says, "I notice that in our stories we routinely start out writing about Obama and McCain, but very quickly we're quoting some spokesman who's sent us an e-mail commenting on what Obama and McCain have said."
A reporter's observation can occasionally start a brush fire. In Dana Milbank's Post column last week, a couple of sentences about a crowd at a Sarah Palin event hurling obscenities -- and in one case a racial epithet -- at journalists led to days of stories, sometimes overblown, about anger and ugliness at GOP rallies.
Last Wednesday -- the day after the second presidential debate -- was typical for journalists traveling with the campaigns. As reporters flew with Obama from Nashville to Indianapolis, chief spokesman Robert Gibbs did not come back on the plane to spin reporters. The reason: He was napping, after an early-morning MSNBC debate with McCain adviser Nicolle Wallace.
Grabbed on the tarmac, Gibbs said the financial crisis would force the campaign to talk about the economy every day until the election. "This is one of the few times when a presidential campaign has been overtaken by events," he said. "It's even subsuming the debates at this point. You've just got to ride the wave."
The day's only event -- the only thing resembling "news" -- was the noontime rally in normally red-state Indiana. An Obama press aide said the senator from Illinois would sharpen his debate attack on McCain's plan to tax employer-provided health insurance, but the reporters didn't seem to care much.
A nine-paragraph post appeared on the New York Times blog two hours later, saying that Obama, who did not "break any new policy ground," had said "that he could endure four more weeks of Republican attacks 'but America can't take four more years of John McCain's Bush policies.' " A Post blog, updated later in the afternoon, said Obama had delivered "a confident and inspirational speech that asked Americans to 'believe in each other' as the country faces a historic challenge to fix the economy."
The press corps remained in the muddy tent for two hours, in part because Obama was sitting down for an interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson.
Dickerson, a former Time correspondent and one of the few who ventured outside the tent, says occasional travel is valuable. But, he says, "you have to spend a lot of time not on the road, or else you can never think four feet off the ground. It's ridiculous to be on the bus, as we all are, have events unfold in front of you and totally ignore them. You sit and watch a rally, and you're not paying any attention to it because you're writing a story about a swing state 600 miles away."
On the subsequent flight to Chicago, Obama spokeswoman Linda Douglass came into the press section and invited questions. She criticized McCain's new mortgage-bailout proposal, which had already been the subject of an e-blast from the Obama campaign. NBC's Lee Cowan asked about a slam hours earlier by McCain's wife, Cindy, who said that "the day that Senator Obama decided to cast a vote to not fund my son when he was serving sent a cold chill through my body."
"John McCain has also voted for cutting funds for the troops," Douglass said, adding: "I understand she's got a son and she's worried." No one followed up.
Although virtually every detail of the day could have been gleaned back home, several journalists -- such as John Heilemann of New York magazine -- noticed that Obama seemed to hit his stride in talking about the economy's impact on the middle class.
"One of the things I got out of the speech is how much more fluid he is talking about this stuff and how much the financial crisis has helped him," Heilemann says. "I've been critical of Obama for not ever developing an economic narrative, a story about what's going on in America. He obviously gets criticized for being too professorial. He's still not 100 percent there, but he's found a touch, a kind of soft populism."
It was the sort of observation that doesn't show up in the box score but can shape perceptions of the game.
Sympathetic Journalism
A Michelle Obama profile in the women's magazine More describes her as "casually elegant," "warm" and "focused." The headline: "Camelot 2.0."
The author, Geraldine Brooks, mentions that she first met the potential first lady at a Martha's Vineyard fundraiser, as a donor to her husband's campaign.
"I certainly pointed it out to the assigning editor and editor in chief and said it would have to be disclosed," Brooks says. "I was intrigued by her." Her sympathies, Brooks says, were "made pretty obvious by the fact that I was at a high-dollar fundraiser for him the year before."
Moving right along . . . Think the press believes McCain is going down?
NYT: "After a turbulent week that included disclosures about Gov. Sarah Palin and signs that Senator John McCain was struggling to strike the right tone for his campaign, Republican leaders said Saturday that they were worried Mr. McCain was heading for defeat unless he brought stability to his presidential candidacy and settled on a clear message to counter Senator Barack Obama."
LAT: "The financial crisis has turned the last three weeks into a crucial and possibly decisive period in the presidential contest -- a time when many Americans have taken a new look at each candidate and then moved toward Democrat Barack Obama."
A WP poll has Obama ahead 53-43, while Newsweek gives Obama a 52-41 lead: "Underlying Obama's surge in support: An historic boiling over of dissatisfaction with the status quo. An astounding 86 percent of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, while a mere 10 percent say they are satisfied. That's the highest wrong track/right track ratio ever recorded in the NEWSWEEK poll."
Ombudsman Clark Hoyt says only 10 percent of the Times's general election stories have been about policy. Depressing. And I doubt anyone else fared much better.
Add National Review's Rich Lowry to the list of conservatives who are unhappily anticipating an Obama administration:
"Obama repeatedly promised 'fundamental change' in the second debate, but otherwise portrayed himself as the embodiment of moderation, nay, even a kind of conservatism. In his own telling, he wants to cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans, reduce spending, preserve but improve the current health-care system and win the war in Afghanistan while prudently drawing down troops in Iraq . . .
"The Democrats are on the verge of a strange victory. If Obama is elected, they will arguably have won the most left-wing government in American history. FDR and LBJ had raging Democratic majorities in Congress early in their presidencies, with which they forged massive increases in the size of government. But that was before the post-Vietnam culture revolution in the Democratic Party that produced a leftward lurch on social issues and a reflexive hostility to American power. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton also had Democratic majorities, but they both consistently ran as, and had records as, Southern moderates. But no one can know whether Obama is the leftist his associations suggest, or the irenic uniter of his iconic 2004 convention speech; whether he's the down-the-line liberal who kowtowed to the base of his own party in the Democratic primaries, or the pragmatist who readjusted to the center as soon as enthralled liberals handed him the nomination."
Bill Kristol also concedes McCain is losing -- but says it's not the candidate's fault:
"It's time for John McCain to fire his campaign.
"He has nothing to lose. His campaign is totally overmatched by Obama's. The Obama team is well organized, flush with resources, and the candidate and the campaign are in sync. The McCain campaign, once merely problematic, is now close to being out-and-out dysfunctional. Its combination of strategic incoherence and operational incompetence has become toxic. If the race continues over the next three weeks to be a conventional one, McCain is doomed." Instead, the Arizonan should go back to "running as a cheerful, open and accessible candidate."
Okay, but who exactly is responsible for assembling this staff and taking its advice?
I happen to think the whole McCain's-angry-crowds theme is being overplayed. There are often protesters and wack jobs at political rallies -- including at the Obama rally I watched in Indiana -- and how exactly is this McCain's fault? But CQ's David Corn disagrees:
"Many of the folks in charge of the McCain campaign don't really care that much for him. Worse, they are treating McCain as a generic Republican candidate -- smothering whatever once was special about him. And McCain has allowed this to happen. He has emasculated himself.
"Look at those recent McCain rallies. His supporters are shouting "terrorist" when McCain mentions his opponent. And does McCain chastise them for doing so? No. In fact, he has been pushing the Obama-hangs-with-terrorists theme. Sarah Palin did so explicitly a few days ago by accusing Obama of 'paling' around with terrorists -- note the plural -- a reference to Obama's past association with William Ayers, a former Weather Underground member who became a much-respected education expert."
The whole argument really sets off Rick Moran at Right Wing Nuthouse:
"According to this breathless, fearful account published in The Washington Post, that's not all they did:
"There were shouts of 'Nobama' and 'Socialist' at the mention of the Democratic presidential nominee. There were boos, middle fingers turned up and thumbs turned down as a media caravan moved through the crowd Thursday for a midday town hall gathering featuring John McCain and Sarah Palin.
"I weep for America. In God's name, what are we coming to? To actually show disdain and unhappiness at the mention of The One? And what's this about giving the finger to our friends in the press? Don't they know that a free press is vital to our democracy? How dare they make such a vulgar display in the direction of those who toil so unselfishly in service to the republic.
"Gee -- you'd think the crowd believed the press was the enemy or something . . .
"I can't tell you how much contempt I have for the Post and other media outlets who have been pushing this meme -- that it is somehow dangerous, or racist, or indicative of something horribly ugly in the mindset of GOP supporters to show strong emotion at the mention of Obama. Not when similiar outbursts happen at Democratic rallies."
It had to happen: a proposal (and acceptance) on Twitter. Keepin' it brief!
Last week I wrote that the media had failed to alert us to the brewing financial crisis, even though pieces of it were reported over the years. Naturally, some journalists told me they beg to differ. The Wall Street Journal did run a zillion editorials over the years about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being out of control. Jesse Eisinger had some prescient warnings about Wall Street banks in Portfolio. And my Washington Post colleague Kirstin Downey had this front-page story in March 2007:
"Immigrants are emerging as among the first victims of a growing wave of home foreclosures in the Washington area as mortgage lending problems multiply locally and across the country."
But look at some of her other pieces and how they got played:
September 2006: "Federal banking regulators yesterday issued a strongly worded warning to lenders about the growing use of nontraditional, or 'exotic,' home loans, telling them they must make sure consumers have the money to repay the loans." (Page F-1)
December 2006: "About 2.2 million homeowners with high-interest mortgages have lost their homes to foreclosure or could do so within the next several years, according to a report from a nonprofit group that opposes predatory lending." (Page D-2)
January 2007: "Consumer advocates say the loosened standards are putting more people at risk as loans originally designed for sophisticated individuals are being marketed to far-less-savvy borrowers." (Page F-1)
If only we'd all paid more attention.
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The New York Times
October 12, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Are We Rome? Tu Betchus!
BYLINE: By MAUREEN DOWD
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 11
LENGTH: 792 words
With modernity crumbling, our thoughts turn to antiquity.
The decline and fall of the American Empire echoes the experience of the Romans, who also tumbled into the trap of becoming overleveraged empire hussies.
As our sand-castle economy washes away under the tide of bad gambles and debts, this most self-indulgent society lurches toward stoicism (even bankrupt Iceland gives us the cold shoulder and turns to a solvent superpower). It's going to require more than giving up constant infusions of stocks, Starbucks and Botox.
As Seneca, the Roman Stoic who advised treating the body ''somewhat strictly,'' wrote in a letter: ''Avoid whatever is approved of by the mob, and things that are the gift of chance. Whenever circumstance brings some welcome thing your way, stop in suspicion and alarm ...They are snares. ... we think these things are ours when in fact it is we who are caught. That track leads to precipices; life on that giddy level ends in a fall.''
The study of Latin and Greek, with illuminations on morality, philosophy, mob rule and chariot races, reached a nadir in the greedy '80s and '90s, when it seemed irrelevant for kids who yearned to be investment bankers and high-tech millionaires. But now we've learned the hard way that greed is bad -- avaritia mala est -- and the classics have staged a comeback. Amo Latinam, so I was happy to see last week's Times story about the soaring enrollment for Latin classes in New York.
In high school, I translated swatches of Julius Caesar's ''The Battle for Gaul'' from Latin to English while nibbling cheese crackers. To boost the felicitous new trend toward Latin, I enlisted Gary D. Farney, an associate professor of history at Rutgers University, to translate (loosely and creatively) from English to Latin ''The Battle of Gall,'' my take below on why the hyperventilating Republicans are not veni, vidi, vici-ing.
Bellum Gallium
Manes Julii Caesaris paucis diebus aderant -- ''O, most bloody sight!'' -- cum Ioannes McCainus, mavericus et veteranus captivusque Belli Francoindosinini, et Sara Palina, barracuda borealis, qui sneerare amant Baracum Obamam causa oratorii, pillorant ut demagogi veri, Africanum-Americanum senatorem Terrae Lincolni, ad Republicanas rallias.
Rabidi subcanes candidati, pretendant ''no orator as Brutis is,'' ut ''stir men's blood'' et disturbant mentes populi ad ''a sudden flood of mutiny,'' ut Wilhelmus Shakespearus scripsit.
Cum Quirites Americani ad rallias Republicanas audiunt nomen Baraci Husseini Obamae, clamant ''Mortem!'' ''Amator terroris!'' ''Socialiste!'' ''Bomba Obamam!'' ''Obama est Arabus!'' ''Caput excidi!'' tempus sit rabble-rouseribus desistere ''Smear Talk Express,'' ut Stephanus Colbertus dixit. Obama demonatus est tamquam Musulmanus-Manchurianus candidatus -- civis ''collo-cerviciliaris'' ad ralliam Floridianam Palinae exhabet mascum Obamae ut Luciferis.
Obama non queretur high-tech lynching. Sed secreto-serventes agentes nervosissmi sunt.
Vix quisque audivit nomen ''Palinae'' ante lunibus paucis. Surgivit ex suo tanning bed ad silvas in Terram Eskimorum, rogans quis sit traitorosus, ominosus, scurrilosus, periculosus amator LXs terroris criminalisque Chicagoani? Tu betchus!
''Caeca ambitio Obamana,'' novum rumorem Palina McCainusque dixit. ''Cum utilis, Obama laborat cum amatore terroris Wilhelmo Ayro. Cum putatus, perjuravit.'' McCainianus bossus maximus Francus Keatinx vocat Obamam, ''plebeium,'' et ut iuvenum snifferendum cocaini minimi (''a little blow.'')
Cum Primus Dudus, spousus Palinanus, culpari attemptaret ''Centurionem-Gate,'' judices Terrae Santae Elvorumque castigat gubernatricem Palinam de abusu auctoritatis per familiam revengendum.
Tamen Sara et Ioannes bury Obama, not praise him. Maverici, ut capiunt auxilium de friga-domina, hench-femina, Cynthia McCaina Birrabaronessa, (quae culpat Obamam periculandi suum filum in Babylonia), brazen-iter distractant mentes populares de minimissimis IV 0 I K.ibus, deminutione ''Motorum Omnium,'' et Depressione Magna II.0. Omnes de Georgio Busio Secundo colossale goofballo. ''V'' (because there's no W. in Latin) etiam duxit per disastrum ad gymnasium.
Gubernatrix (prope Russia) Palina, spectans candidaciam MMXII, post multam educationem cum Kissingro et post multam parodiam de Sabbatis Nocte Vivo atque de Tina Feia, ferociter vituperat Obamam, ut supralupocidit (aerial shooting of wolves) in Hyperborea.
Vilmingtoni, in Ohionem, McCain's Mean Girl (Ferox Puella) defendit se gladiatricem politicam esse: ''Pauci dicant, O Jupiter, te negativam esse. Non, negativa non sum, sed verissima.'' Talk about lipsticka in porcam! Quasi Leeus Atwater de oppugnatione Busii Primi ad Dukakem: ''non negativus, sed comparativus.''
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The New York Times
October 12, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Out Of Panic, Self-Reliance
BYLINE: By HAROLD BLOOM.
Harold Bloom teaches at Yale.
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Pg. 12
LENGTH: 1361 words
DATELINE: New Haven
IN the spring of 1837, a great depression afflicted the northeastern United States. All the banks in New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore suspended cash payments, as did many in Boston. Of the 850 banks in the United States, nearly half closed or partly failed. If the crisis of 2008 was caused by poor lending, the Panic of 1837, too, featured speculation and inflation.
The bank failures of 1837 were followed by high unemployment that lasted into 1843. Foreign over-investment (chiefly British) had augmented the bubble, which burst when the wily English pulled their money out. President Martin Van Buren, a Jacksonian Democrat, refused any government involvement in a bailout, and so was widely blamed for the panic. Van Buren was defeated in his re-election bid in 1840 by his Whig opponent, William Henry Harrison.
The similarities between the crashes of 1837 and 1929 are evident again today. I am not an economist or a political scientist, but having been born in 1930, I retain poignant early memories of the impact of the Great Depression upon my father, a working man who struggled to maintain a family with five children in a very hard time. I am a scholar of literature and religion, and would advise whoever becomes president to turn to Ralph Waldo Emerson, whose influential vision of America was deeply informed by the crisis of 1837:
I see a good in such emphatic and universal calamity as the times bring, that they dissatisfy me with society. Under common burdens we say there is much virtue in the world, and what evil co-exists is inevitable. I am not aroused to say, ''I have sinned: I am in a gall of bitterness, and a bond of iniquity''; but when these full measures come, it then stands confessed -- society has played out its last stake; it is checkmated. Young men have no hope. Adults stand like day laborers, idle on the streets. None calleth us to labor. The old wear no crown of warm life on their gray hairs. The present generation is bankrupt of principles and hope, as of property. I see man is not what man should be. He is the treadle of a wheel. He is a tassel at the apron string of society. He is a money chest. He is the servant of his belly. This is the causal bankruptcy, this is the cruel oppression, that the ideal should serve the actual, that the head should serve the feet. Then first, I am forced to inquire if the ideal might not also be tried. Is it to be taken for granted that it is impracticable? Behold the boasted world has come to nothing. Prudence itself is at her wits' end.
Pride, and Thrift, and Expediency, who jeered and chirped and were so well pleased with themselves, and made merry with the dream, as they termed it, of Philosophy and Love, -- behold they are all flat, and here is the Soul erect and unconquered still. What answer is it now to say, ''It has always been so?'' I acknowledge that, as far back as I can see the widening procession of humanity, the marchers are lame and blind and deaf; but to the soul that whole past is but one finite series in its infinite scope. Deteriorating ever and now desperate. Let me begin anew. Let me teach the finite to know its master. Let me ascend above my fate and work down upon my world.
It may shock that the Sage of Concord should react to catastrophe with such idealistic glee. Most Americans -- the governor of Alaska, who never blinks, doubtless among them -- would be startled by the admonition to begin anew and ascend above our fate.
There is little disagreement that Emerson was the most influential writer of 19th-century America, though these days he is largely the concern of scholars. Walt Whitman, Henry David Thoreau and William James were all positive Emersonians, while Herman Melville, Nathaniel Hawthorne and Henry James were Emersonians in denial -- while they set themselves in opposition to the sage, there was no escaping his influence. To T. S. Eliot, Emerson's essays were an ''encumbrance.'' Waldo the Sage was eclipsed from 1914 until 1965, when he returned to shine, after surviving in the work of major American poets like Robert Frost, Wallace Stevens and Hart Crane.
Beyond literary tradition, Emerson has maintained an effect upon American politics and sociology. The oddity of Emerson in the public sphere is that he has the power to foster fresh versions of the two camps he termed the Party of Memory and the Party of Hope. The political right appropriates his values of remembering private interests as part of the public good, while the left follows his exaltation of the American Adam, a New Man in a New World of hope. The rivalry between these polarized camps is very much apparent in this election.
Emerson was electrified by financial storms. The depression beginning in 1837 spurred his famous oration at Harvard, ''The American Scholar'':
The literature of the poor, the feelings of the child, the philosophy of the street, the meaning of the household life, are the topics of the time. It is a great stride. It is a sign -- is it not? -- of new vigor, when the extremities are made active, when currents of warm life run into the hands and feet .... Let me see every trifle bristling with the polarity that ranges it instantly on an eternal law; and the shop, the plow and the ledger referred to the like cause by which light undulates and poets sing.
Emerson would have understood our current raging polarities. That American cultural nationalism should have been stimulated by a banking disaster is a wholly Emersonian paradox. Another enigma is the direct link between the lingering financial crisis and Emerson's formulation of his mature religious stance, crucially in his essay, ''Self-Reliance,'' of 1839-40:
Life only avails, not the having lived. Power ceases in the instant of repose; it resides in the moment of transition from a past to a new state, in the shooting of the gulf, in the darting to an aim .... Why then do we prate of self-reliance? Inasmuch as the soul is present there will be power not confident but agent. To talk of reliance is a poor external way of speaking. Speak rather of that which relies because it works and it is. Who has more obedience than I masters me, though he should not raise his finger. Round him I must revolve by the gravitation of spirits. We fancy it rhetoric when we speak of eminent value. We do not yet see that virtue is height, and that a man or a company of men, plastic and permeable to principles, by the law of nature must overpower and ride all cities, nations, kings, rich men, poets, who are not.
By ''self-reliance'' Emerson meant the recognition of the god within us, rather than the worship of the Christian godhead (a deity that some Americans cannot always distinguish from themselves). Whether they know it or not, John McCain and Barack Obama seek power in just this ultimately serious sense, although that marvelous passage means one thing to Emersonians of the right and something very different to Emersonians of the left. Senator Obama's mantra of ''change'' celebrates the shooting of the gulf, the darting to an aim, setting aside ''the having lived.'' Senator McCain's ''change'' reflects what remains most authentic about him, the nostalgia of the Party of Memory.
Barack Obama emanates from the tradition of the black church, where ''the little me within the big me'' is part or particle of God, just as the Emersonian self was. But he is a subtle intellectual and will not mistake himself for the Divine, and he has the curbing influence of Senator Joseph Biden, a conventional Roman Catholic, at his side.John McCain's religiosity is at one with the Party of Memory, but he has aligned himself with Gov. Sarah Palin, who, as an Assemblies of God Pentecostalist, presumably enjoys closer encounters with the comforting Holy Spirit.
Regardless of these differences, whoever is elected will have to forge a solution to today's panic through his own understanding of self-reliance. As Emerson knew in his glory and sorrow, both of himself and all Americans: ''The wealth of the universe is for me. Every thing is explicable and practical for me .... I am defeated all the time; yet to victory I am born.''
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Late Edition - Final
The Terrorist Barack Hussein Obama
BYLINE: By FRANK RICH
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 10
LENGTH: 1584 words
IF you think way back to the start of this marathon campaign, back when it seemed preposterous that any black man could be a serious presidential contender, then you remember the biggest fear about Barack Obama: a crazy person might take a shot at him.
Some voters told reporters that they didn't want Obama to run, let alone win, should his very presence unleash the demons who have stalked America from Lincoln to King. After consultation with Congress, Michael Chertoff, the homeland security secretary, gave Obama a Secret Service detail earlier than any presidential candidate in our history -- in May 2007, some eight months before the first Democratic primaries.
''I've got the best protection in the world, so stop worrying,'' Obama reassured his supporters. Eventually the country got conditioned to his appearing in large arenas without incident (though I confess that the first loud burst of fireworks at the end of his convention stadium speech gave me a start). In America, nothing does succeed like success. The fear receded.
Until now. At McCain-Palin rallies, the raucous and insistent cries of ''Treason!'' and ''Terrorist!'' and ''Kill him!'' and ''Off with his head!'' as well as the uninhibited slinging of racial epithets, are actually something new in a campaign that has seen almost every conceivable twist. They are alarms. Doing nothing is not an option.
All's fair in politics. John McCain and Sarah Palin have every right to bring up William Ayers, even if his connection to Obama is minor, even if Ayers's Weather Underground history dates back to Obama's childhood, even if establishment Republicans and Democrats alike have collaborated with the present-day Ayers in educational reform. But it's not just the old Joe McCarthyesque guilt-by-association game, however spurious, that's going on here. Don't for an instant believe the many mindlessly ''even-handed'' journalists who keep saying that the McCain campaign's use of Ayers is the moral or political equivalent of the Obama campaign's hammering on Charles Keating.
What makes them different, and what has pumped up the Weimar-like rage at McCain-Palin rallies, is the violent escalation in rhetoric, especially (though not exclusively) by Palin. Obama ''launched his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist.'' He is ''palling around with terrorists'' (note the plural noun). Obama is ''not a man who sees America the way you and I see America.'' Wielding a wildly out-of-context Obama quote, Palin slurs him as an enemy of American troops.
By the time McCain asks the crowd ''Who is the real Barack Obama?'' it's no surprise that someone cries out ''Terrorist!'' The rhetorical conflation of Obama with terrorism is complete. It is stoked further by the repeated invocation of Obama's middle name by surrogates introducing McCain and Palin at these rallies. This sleight of hand at once synchronizes with the poisonous Obama-is-a-Muslim e-mail blasts and shifts the brand of terrorism from Ayers's Vietnam-era variety to the radical Islamic threats of today.
That's a far cry from simply accusing Obama of being a guilty-by-association radical leftist. Obama is being branded as a potential killer and an accessory to past attempts at murder. ''Barack Obama's friend tried to kill my family'' was how a McCain press release last week packaged the remembrance of a Weather Underground incident from 1970 -- when Obama was 8.
We all know what punishment fits the crime of murder, or even potential murder, if the security of post-9/11 America is at stake. We all know how self-appointed ''patriotic'' martyrs always justify taking the law into their own hands.
Obama can hardly be held accountable for Ayers's behavior 40 years ago, but at least McCain and Palin can try to take some responsibility for the behavior of their own supporters in 2008. What's troubling here is not only the candidates' loose inflammatory talk but also their refusal to step in promptly and strongly when someone responds to it with bloodthirsty threats in a crowded arena. Joe Biden had it exactly right when he expressed concern last week that ''a leading American politician who might be vice president of the United States would not just stop midsentence and turn and condemn that.'' To stay silent is to pour gas on the fires.
It wasn't always thus with McCain. In February he loudly disassociated himself from a speaker who brayed ''Barack Hussein Obama'' when introducing him at a rally in Ohio. Now McCain either backpedals with tardy, pro forma expressions of respect for his opponent or lets second-tier campaign underlings release boilerplate disavowals after ugly incidents like the chilling Jim Crow-era flashback last week when a Florida sheriff ranted about ''Barack Hussein Obama'' at a Palin rally while in full uniform.
From the start, there have always been two separate but equal questions about race in this election. Is there still enough racism in America to prevent a black man from being elected president no matter what? And, will Republicans play the race card? The jury is out on the first question until Nov. 4. But we now have the unambiguous answer to the second: Yes.
McCain, who is no racist, turned to this desperate strategy only as Obama started to pull ahead. The tone was set at the Republican convention, with Rudy Giuliani's mocking dismissal of Obama as an ''only in America'' affirmative-action baby. We also learned then that the McCain campaign had recruited as a Palin handler none other than Tucker Eskew, the South Carolina consultant who had worked for George W. Bush in the notorious 2000 G.O.P. primary battle where the McCains and their adopted Bangladeshi daughter were slimed by vicious racist rumors.
No less disconcerting was a still-unexplained passage of Palin's convention speech: Her use of an unattributed quote praising small-town America (as opposed to, say, Chicago and its community organizers) from Westbrook Pegler, the mid-century Hearst columnist famous for his anti-Semitism, racism and violent rhetorical excess. After an assassin tried to kill F.D.R. at a Florida rally and murdered Chicago's mayor instead in 1933, Pegler wrote that it was ''regrettable that Giuseppe Zangara shot the wrong man.'' In the '60s, Pegler had a wish for Bobby Kennedy: ''Some white patriot of the Southern tier will spatter his spoonful of brains in public premises before the snow falls.''
This is the writer who found his way into a speech by a potential vice president at a national political convention. It's astonishing there's been no demand for a public accounting from the McCain campaign. Imagine if Obama had quoted a Black Panther or Louis Farrakhan -- or William Ayers -- in Denver.
The operatives who would have Palin quote Pegler have been at it ever since. A key indicator came two weeks after the convention, when the McCain campaign ran its first ad tying Obama to the mortgage giant Fannie Mae. Rather than make its case by using a legitimate link between Fannie and Obama (or other Democratic leaders), the McCain forces chose a former Fannie executive who had no real tie to Obama or his campaign but did have a black face that could dominate the ad's visuals.
There are no black faces high in the McCain hierarchy to object to these tactics. There hasn't been a single black Republican governor, senator or House member in six years. This is a campaign where Palin can repeatedly declare that Alaska is ''a microcosm of America'' without anyone even wondering how that might be so for a state whose tiny black and Hispanic populations are each roughly one-third the national average. There are indeed so few people of color at McCain events that a black senior writer from The Tallahassee Democrat was mistakenly ejected by the Secret Service from a campaign rally in Panama City in August, even though he was standing with other reporters and showed his credentials. His only apparent infraction was to look glaringly out of place.
Could the old racial politics still be determinative? I've long been skeptical of the incessant press prognostications (and liberal panic) that this election will be decided by racist white men in the Rust Belt. Now even the dimmest bloviators have figured out that Americans are riveted by the color green, not black -- as in money, not energy. Voters are looking for a leader who might help rescue them, not a reckless gambler whose lurching responses to the economic meltdown (a campaign ''suspension,'' a mortgage-buyout stunt that changes daily) are as unhinged as his wanderings around the debate stage.
To see how fast the tide is moving, just look at North Carolina. On July 4 this year -- the day that the godfather of modern G.O.P. racial politics, Jesse Helms, died -- The Charlotte Observer reported that strategists of both parties agreed Obama's chances to win the state fell ''between slim and none.'' Today, as Charlotte reels from the implosion of Wachovia, the McCain-Obama race is a dead heat in North Carolina and Helms's Republican successor in the Senate, Elizabeth Dole, is looking like a goner.
But we're not at Election Day yet, and if voters are to have their final say, both America and Obama have to get there safely. The McCain campaign has crossed the line between tough negative campaigning and inciting vigilantism, and each day the mob howls louder. The onus is on the man who says he puts his country first to call off the dogs, pit bulls and otherwise.
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October 12, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
In Tight House Race, Bush Record Is Battleground
BYLINE: By FRAN SILVERMAN
SECTION: Section CT; Column 0; Connecticut Weekly Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1242 words
DATELINE: BRIDGEPORT
AS the last Republican United States representative left in Connecticut -- and in all of New England -- Christopher Shays of the Fourth District is familiar with close contests. He came within about 6,000 votes of losing his Congressional seat in 2006 at a time when constituents were angry about the war in Iraq, which he voted to support.
Now, he faces perhaps the closest race yet as he tries for an 11th term, running against Jim Himes, a Democrat from Greenwich, at a time when constituents are angry about the economy and the Wall Street bailout. Mr. Shays, 62, voted in favor of both versions of the bailout bill despite the fact that constituents who contacted his office were against it, 30 to 1.
''I'm not going to play Russian roulette with Main Street,'' Mr. Shays said recently during an interview at his home in Bridgeport overlooking Long Island Sound.
Mr. Shay's district in southwestern Connecticut is one of the wealthiest in the nation, encompassing portions of Fairfield and New Haven Counties and the communities of Greenwich, Stamford, Bridgeport and Westport.
Once a Republican stronghold, the Fourth District has voted for a Democrat in every presidential race since 1996. Political experts say Mr. Shays has hung onto his seat because he has been seen as an independent -- fiscally conservative but socially progressive -- and is seen to be effective in constituency work.
But this election comes against the backdrop of an economic crisis and a presidential election. Not only is the state considered to be safely in Senator Barack Obama's column, but state polls also show the Democratic presidential candidate running strong in Mr. Shays's district. That trend, coupled with what the secretary of state's office says is a record number of voters registered in Democratic-leaning Bridgeport this election, may present the biggest challenge ever to Mr. Shays, who has been in office for 21 years.
Still, political experts say that while voters may be upset with President Bush's administration, they often take other issues into account when voting for their own Congressional representatives.
''I'm not sure people in this district are blaming Shays for the problems we are having,'' said Gary L. Rose, a political science professor at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield. ''The issues Shays has favored have appealed to so many constituent groups, such as housing for the poor, health care, pro-choice. He just seems to placate every aspect of the Fourth District with his positions.''
Based on Mr. Shays's voting record, Congressional Quarterly ranked him the No. 1 moderate Republican in the House.
A poll conducted from Sept. 22 to Sept. 25 by WSHU Radio/Sacred Heart University showed Mr. Shays leading Mr. Himes by 10 percentage points, with 30 percent of voters undecided. Professor Rose said that two-thirds of undecided voters often cast their ballots for the challenger. The Sacred Heart poll had a 5 percentage point margin of sampling error.
Mr. Shays said he was not surprised that the race was close. ''I realize my district hates Bush,'' he said.
With the Nov. 4 election less than a month away, the economy has become the dominant issue in the race.
Mr. Himes, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, who has said he would have voted for the bailout legislation also, has tried to tie Mr. Shays to the Bush administration's economic policies.
He has reminded voters that in September, Mr. Shays said that the fundamentals of the economy were sound, and he has questioned why, with Mr. Shays's position as a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee, on which he has served since 2001, he has failed to take measures to prevent the banking meltdowns.
Mr. Himes, who has raised more than $2 million -- more money than any of Mr. Shays's previous challengers -- said Mr. Shays was out of touch with his constituency on the two main issues on the minds of voters.
''He was dead wrong on Iraq and has supported the administration's disastrous economic policies,'' Mr. Himes said during a recent interview at his campaign headquarters in Norwalk. He likes to remind voters of how often Mr. Shays voted to support President Bush's policies.
In 2002, Mr. Shays voted 82 percent of the time with the Bush administration, but in 2007, Mr. Shays voted 33 percent of the time with the president, according to Mr. Shays's campaign.
Mr. Himes said Mr. Shays's policy of supporting deregulation left the economy vulnerable to abusive and reckless actions by banks. Having worked as an investment banker, Mr. Himes said he knew what needed to be done to better regulate the financial industry.
Mr. Shays bristles at his opponent's criticism, saying he was one of the first to voice concerns about lack of oversight of the mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, supporting legislation in 2003 to require the two companies to comply with the same reporting requirements as publicly traded companies despite fierce opposition and pressure from his party and lobbyists. In 2006, he said, he raised concerns about the increased commercial operations of banks in a letter to the comptroller of the currency. But Mr. Himes retorts: ''While the basement was full of dynamite, Chris Shays was checking on the smoke in the attic.''
Mr. Shays also says in campaign literature and commercials that he has the hope of Mr. Obama and the straight talk of Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate. He said he supports Mr. McCain and Mr. McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, saying he views them as fellow reformers. And he said he wondered why Mr. Himes was running against him when the two hold similar positions on many issues including health care, support of Roe v. Wade and the environment -- both support a continued ban on drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Mr. Himes said Mr. Shays sided with Republicans on close votes. Nine out of 10 times, he said, Mr. Shays voted with his party on issues like tax cuts for the middle class and timetables for withdrawal of troops from Iraq. ''He voted against withdrawal timelines five times,'' Mr. Himes said. ''He's been dishonest with us. He says what he needs to say to get elected.''
Mr. Shays does favor a timeline, he said, and has voted for one that includes withdrawing most combat troops from Iraq by December 2009. He has said that he voted against other proposals that he thought withdrew troops too quickly.
As House candidates, Mr. Himes ranked No. 2 and Mr. Shays No. 3 in the amount of campaign contributions received from securities and investment firms in 2008, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group. Mr. Himes received $393,254, and Mr. Shays received $362,720. Mr. Himes has also received contributions from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has spent more than $300,000 to air two television commercials on his behalf.
The two candidates have scheduled seven debates beginning on Tuesday.
''This race will be decided by a tiny margin,'' Mr. Himes said. ''But instead of one issue, the war, that almost got him beaten, we've got two where he's been wrong, the war and the economy.''
Mr. Shays said he is taking nothing for granted.
''People wrestle with, can I be an Obama and a Shays supporter. I can work with McCain or Obama,'' he said. ''I listen, I learn, I help, I lead and I listen again.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: IT LOOKS CLOSE: Representative Christopher Shays, left, a Republican, is fighting to keep his seat from Jim Himes, a Democrat. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY JANET DURRANS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(CT1)
INTRODUCTIONS: Jim Himes at the South Norwalk train station.
ON THE TRAIL: Representative Christopher Shays in Shelton. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY JANET DURRANS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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October 12, 2008 Sunday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
McCain Campaign Sustains the Focus on Obama's Links to a 1960s Radical
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; ON LINE; Pg. 34
LENGTH: 1007 words
The name William Ayers is perhaps more widely known today than it was when he helped found the Weather Underground four decades ago. Back then, there were only three television networks and no Internet or cable television to spread the word far and wide and over and over.
But now, you can hardly tune in (to TV) or turn on (your computer) without coming across a reference to Mr. Ayers, the 1960s radical who has said the Weathermen were responsible for a dozen bombings in the early '70s and had planned attacks on the Capitol and the Pentagon.
Mr. Ayers's chief publicity machine these days is the presidential campaign of Senator John McCain, which has made Mr. Ayers a household name.
The McCain campaign brought him up all last week even as the Republican candidate slipped further behind his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, in the polls.
Mr. McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, began last week by saying Mr. Obama was one to ''pal around with terrorists who targeted their own country.''
And the McCain campaign released a new commercial on Friday that lumps Mr. Ayers into a dog's breakfast of negative buzz words: ''Obama's blind ambition. When convenient, he worked with terrorist Bill Ayers.'' It veers to a mention of ''risky'' subprime loans and almost begs the listener to link Mr. Ayers and Mr. Obama with the collapse of the housing market.
With fewer than four weeks until the election, why is the McCain campaign so focused on Mr. Ayers?
Mr. McCain told ABC News in an interview broadcast Friday that Mr. Ayers was not just ''a guy in the neighborhood,'' as Mr. Obama has said, and that Mr. Obama had ''launched his political career'' in Mr. Ayers's living room. (Mr. Ayers held a gathering for Mr. Obama in 1995, one of several in which Mr. Obama discussed whether to run for office.)
''I don't care about two washed-up old terrorists that are unrepentant about trying to destroy America,'' Mr. McCain told ABC, referring to Mr. Ayers and his wife, Bernardine Dohrn, who was also a member of the Weather Underground. ''But I do care, and Americans should care, about his relationship with him and whether he's being truthful and candid about it.''
Mr. McCain added, ''I don't care about Mr. Ayers, who on Sept. 11, 2001, said he wished he'd have bombed more.'' (Mr. Ayers said in an interview with The New York Times that was published on Sept. 11, 2001, ''I don't regret setting bombs,'' and added, ''I feel we didn't do enough.'' He later said he meant that he did not do enough to protest the Vietnam War.)
In any case, it is clear that Mr. McCain thinks -- or hopes -- that the Ayers issue has traction, and some analysts agree that it might, at least with the Republican base and possibly with the dwindling number of undecided voters.
Darrell West, a political scientist at the Brookings Institution, said Mr. Ayers was a potent symbol.
''Bill Ayers combines 9/11 and Willie Horton into one target,'' Mr. West said, referring to the convict in Massachusetts who was let out on a prison furlough and raped a woman and whose image was used against Michael Dukakis in his failed 1988 presidential campaign.
Mr. West added: ''Ayers represents someone who is far out of the mainstream and who endangered American security. So in the age of terrorism, he's a great symbol.''
Robert J. Thompson, a professor of popular culture at Syracuse University, said Mr. McCain was trying to plant seeds of doubt about Mr. Obama's character and who he really is so that undecided voters would think he is ''risky.''
''He's just hoping that if you throw enough doubts out there, one of them will find its way to the craw of an undecided voter,'' Mr. Thompson said.
This has been evident at McCain rallies.
''Who is Barack Obama?'' Mr. McCain asked at a recent rally in New Mexico. The answer came back: ''Terrorist!'' At another rally in Pennsylvania, someone shouted, ''He is a bomb!'' At yet another rally, a supporter called out, ''Off with his head!''
Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, a Democrat, looked at the McCain tactic this way: ''The McCain-Palin campaign and some of their followers unfortunately want you to be afraid of Barack Obama.''
And some people say they are. One man at a McCain rally on Friday said he was ''scared'' to raise a child under a President Obama. Mr. McCain pulled back, saying Mr. Obama was a decent man, only to be jeered by his own supporters.
Mr. Obama himself has highlighted Mr. McCain's tone as a way of contrasting it with his own. ''It's easy to rile up a crowd by stoking anger and division,'' he said Friday. ''But that's not what we need right now in the United States. The times are too serious.''
A McCain spokesman, Brian Rogers, instantly fired back, saying in a statement that ''Barack Obama's effort to silence and shame those who seek answers should make everyone wonder exactly what he is hiding.''
Despite the McCain campaign's zeal for invoking Mr. Ayers, however, Mr. McCain himself did not bring him up at his debate with Mr. Obama on Tuesday.
He may have been concerned about doing it face to face with Mr. Obama -- and did not want to provoke Mr. Obama into responding with a reference to Mr. McCain's own questionable ties to Charles Keating, of the savings and loan scandal (not a good reminder in a time of financial crisis).
Whatever the reason Mr. McCain did not bring up Mr. Ayers, that he continues to focus on him on the trail suggests that he thinks the name is energizing his base, those voters who are already committed to him, and perhaps those who are looking for a reason not to support Mr. Obama. And he wants to ensure they remain energized through Election Day.
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LOAD-DATE: October 19, 2008
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CORRECTION: An article in some copies last Sunday about Senator John McCain's criticism of Senator Barack Obama for his association with William Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground, misspelled the given name of a political scientist who said Mr. Ayers was a potent symbol. He is Darrell West, not Darrel.
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The Washington Post
October 12, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
Those Negative Ads Are a Positive Thing
BYLINE: John G. Geer
SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B01
LENGTH: 1567 words
It's that time again. With the mud flying in the presidential race, pundits, journalists and political observers of all stripes are denouncing the campaign's new, strikingly negative tone. Listening to them, you'd think that the very fabric of our democracy were being ripped apart every time a candidate aired a tough attack ad, threw an elbow or issued a sharply worded statement. It's no surprise that the public has joined the chorus to denounce negativity in politics. But as someone who has spent years studying negative advertising, I say hold the handwringing over attack ads. They're actually pretty good for the country.
Before you throw down the paper in disgust at my heresy, let me offer, as Sen. John McCain likes to say, some "straight talk." For starters, let's not be prudish about this. Really, what did we expect to happen? The polls all show that Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a significant lead over McCain, who is saddled with a sagging economy and a wildly unpopular president. Senior GOP operatives recently told The Washington Post that the McCain campaign would take a newly aggressive tone to try "to change the subject here," as one McCain hand put it. So is it any wonder that McCain is airing mostly negative ads at this point?
And Obama's not innocent, either. While McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, blasted the Democratic nominee for his rather thin ties to a seemingly unrepentant member of the Vietnam-era Weather Underground, Obama responded with an ad reminding voters of McCain's role in the "Keating Five" savings-and-loan scandal of the 1980s. Recent data from Nielsen suggest that the campaigns have aired roughly the same number of negative ads. Even Karl Rove, who knows a thing or two about attack ads, has declared that both sides have gone too negative.
Most people assume that negativity in politics is a bad thing. But they're wrong. Attack ads aren't just inevitable; they're actually helpful to voters. Negative ads, on average, are actually more informative than positive ones. This claim sounds like sacrilege in light of all the negativity about negativity, but the data are clear. Believe it or not, I've examined all the ads aired by presidential candidates on television from 1960 to 2004, and my analysis has led me to some startling conclusions:
First, negative ads are more likely than positive ads to be about the issues.
Second, negative ads are more likely to be specific when talking about those issues.
Third, negative ads are more likely to contain facts.
And finally, negative ads are more likely to be about the important issues of the day.
How is this possible? How can something so widely reviled actually turn out to be good for us? It's like finding out that Big Macs are nutritious.
The problem is that we rarely consider what's necessary for a negative ad to work. Obama can't just say that a McCain presidency would be bad for the economy. Instead, he must make an argument, even a 30-second one, showing how McCain's policies will supposedly lead to an economic downturn. That forces Obama to be much more specific than he is when he's out on the stump touting his own vague desire to grow the economy.
Moreover, attacks need evidence to work. Could Obama attack McCain as unprepared to serve as commander-in-chief? Not in this lifetime. McCain has the necessary experience, and claiming otherwise would backfire. Similarly, McCain can't question Obama's intelligence because the Democrat is clearly smart. When ads lack the evidence to support their claims, they tend to work against the candidate who aired them. Just consider the flak McCain took recently after running his "sex education" ad. It simply wasn't credible to claim that Obama supported sex education for 6-year-old kids.
Part of the reason people don't like negative ads is that attacks aren't fun; learning about someone's weaknesses isn't enjoyable. Nonetheless, it's important. In 1988, for example, then-vice president George H.W. Bush's campaign was criticized for airing the famous "tank ad," which used footage of a helmet-wearing Michael S. Dukakis driving around in a tank while the narrator listed defense programs that the Massachusetts governor opposed. Sure, the video made Dukakis look like Snoopy, but the ad also raised important themes for voters. With the Cold War raging, the public needed to know about the candidates' views on defense policy. If you listened only to Dukakis's own ads, you would have thought that he was a bigger supporter of defense than Bush. But the record suggested otherwise.
That ad was an important corrective to the overly generous account candidates usually offer about their own records. In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry described himself as someone who supported tax cuts. The Bush campaign had to point out the many times Kerry had supported tax increases. Is that hitting below the belt? Hardly. The public needed to know Kerry's full record on taxes. Kerry never would have provided it -- but the negative ads did.
The bottom line: Candidates are great at telling us all about their strengths, but they just won't tell us about their weaknesses. So that task falls to their opponents. We need this negative information to make an informed choice.
I'll push my own Straight Talk Express even further: Any democracy demands negativity. Our nation rests on the idea that ordinary citizens can replace one set of leaders with another. But to make that change, we need those out of power to explain what's wrong with those in charge. The beauty of our system is the peaceful transfer of power, and that absolutely requires negativity.
Some may say that purely negative campaigns undermine this country and produce nothing of value. Perhaps. But if you want to see some truly "negative" campaigns, forget 2008 or 1988 and go back to the founding of the republic. First, consider the Declaration of Independence -- one of our most hallowed documents. It is also strikingly negative, attacking King George's actions toward the colonies. Or consider the debate over the adoption of the Constitution. Its foes waged a harsh, nasty and sometimes personal campaign against the Federalists and our new founding charter. By one estimate, 90 percent of all the anti-federalists' statements were attacks on the Constitution. The result of all this negativity? The Bill of Rights -- not a bad outcome at all.
Not every attack this season has been a good thing, of course. The number of attack ads seems excessive to me, too. We're usually told that all these negative commercials are aired because they work. But that doesn't hold water. Despite that conventional wisdom, there's no systematic evidence that attacks ads work better than positive ones. We can all point to famous negative ads that seemed to swing an election, but the same can be said of positive ads. Remember Ronald Reagan's beautiful "Morning in America" ads, which laid out the many successes of Reagan's first term? Walter Mondale sure does.
The reason we have so many negative ads in 2008 has less to do with their efficacy or virtue than with the way the media cover campaigns. Today's coverage gives candidates far more incentive to run negative ads than they had 20 or 30 years ago. Consultants know that reporters and bloggers love harsh, negative ads. Journalists relish the battle and revel in the attacks. When was the last time you saw a news story about a positive ad? I recently asked a panel of journalists this question, and only Joe Klein of Time magazine could say that he had recently written about one of Obama's more uplifting ads. The sugary stuff may work with voters, but it doesn't set journalists' and pundits' pulses racing.
Hence this cycle has seen an increase in nasty ads online and lots of negative spots airing in just a few media markets. The campaigns are, in effect, fishing: dropping a lot of lines in the water in hopes of hooking the media. Take all the attention the McCain team's "Celebrity" ad received earlier this year by linking Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. This ad was clever, and it offered a theme that the media found interesting and relevant: Is Obama ready to lead?
But the best, and most troubling, illustration comes from the 2004 presidential race. We all know the term "Swift Boat," but not because many of us saw the actual ad that ripped Kerry's Vietnam service. The ad didn't get much air time, but the media lavished attention on the controversial spot. I did a systematic search of media coverage from August to November 2004 and found that the term "Swift Boat" got nearly twice as many mentions in major U.S. newspapers as the term "Iraq war."
All this straight talk may be received with, well, some negativity. As a defender of negativity, I can only say: Bring it on. We need to continually evaluate, judge and criticize our ideas, and that means we need negativity. It plays an important role in letting the country decide who's ready to lead. It may not be pretty, but democratic politics rarely are. U.S. elections are pitched battles for control of the federal government. The stakes are huge, and tempers flare. But the candidate left standing will be battle-tested for the fiery trial that awaits him when he takes that oath of office.
John G. Geer is a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University and the author of "In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns."
LOAD-DATE: October 14, 2008
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IMAGE; By Tracy Baker -- United Press International; Damned spot: Michael S. Dukakis's Sept. 1988 ride in a tank provided an image that his Republican foes pounced on.
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The Washington Post
October 12, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Candidate Banners Can Leave Clients, Businesses Bruised
BYLINE: Avis Thomas-Lester; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: METRO; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1203 words
The sign went up Sunday evening, bold black letters against the stark white background of the marquee at the Colony South Hotel & Conference Center in Clinton: "Country First. McCain/Palin."
By daybreak, pandemonium had broken loose all across heavily Democratic Prince George's County. Many local supporters of Democrat Barack Obama, jolted by the message as they headed down Branch Avenue on their Monday morning commutes, grabbed cellphones and BlackBerrys to notify friends. Operators of neighborhood e-mail group lists cried foul to their memberships. The NAACP logged calls. Community leaders demanded boycotts of the hotel, a common venue for Democratic events.
"Businesspeople have to be mindful of the sentiments and sensibilities of their market trading area, and Prince George's County is overwhelmingly for Obama," said community activist Arthur Turner of Kettering, who was among those advocating a boycott. "People I have talked to look at the sign as a slap in the face. They feel it was blatant disrespect. . . . I have heard people say they will no longer patronize Colony South because of that disrespect."
The outcry over the hotel marquee tapped into the passion -- and sometimes anger -- that has characterized this fall's presidential campaign. Supporters of Republican candidate John McCain have vented their rage at rallies this week, applauding thunderously as McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists."
Prince George's, though, is clearly Obama Country. As the nation's wealthiest mostly black community, where about 77 percent of registered voters are Democrats, residents have Obama placards in their yards, bumper stickers on their cars and the candidate's visage on their T-shirts.
The marquee supporting the GOP ticket in "an area that is strongly African American was like putting a stink bomb in the middle of the living room," said University of Maryland political Professor Ron Walters. "What it does show is the emotions that are around this campaign and this election."
Colony South General Manager Alan Vahabzadeh said that the hotel, one of several Washington area businesses that has dared to venture into the political thicket, got the message after about 100 phone calls and three dozen e-mails. The sign came down Wednesday afternoon.
"I didn't even realize it was going to be like this," he said in an interview. The last thing "we want to do is lose business," he added.
But Friday afternoon, motorists noticed new signs -- broad banners attached to wooden stakes in the hotel's front yard -- again touting the Republicans.
Vahabzadeh did not return later calls seeking comment, but an employee said the phones were again ringing with complaints.
And Democratic activists started talking boycott. That could mean canceling political events at the hotel and urging residents to skip its Wednesday night karaoke events and Sunday brunches.
"While a business has the right to display what it chooses, the public has a right to show its contempt for that decision, including boycotting," said Mel Franklin, president of the Greater Marlboro Democratic Club.
Other business owners who have gotten into the political game have drawn less grief. At the Big Bad Woof pet store in liberal Takoma Park, bumper stickers urging people to "Vote for Bark Obama 2008" are available for sale. No such items were available for "John McCanine."
At B. Smith's restaurant in Union Station recently, a waiter sported an Obama campaign button. At the Old Town Trading Post in Alexandria, which sells hemp necklaces, African figurines and incense, among other novelties, an array of McCain T-shirts and a bumper sticker that reads "Friends don't let friends vote Democrat" are available for sale. A giant sign at Parson's Farm nursery in Prince William County proclaims the area "McCain Country."
Richard D'Amico, a stylist at Axis, a hair salon on Connecticut Avenue NW, has declared his work area a "Sarah Palin-Free Zone" by posting on his mirror a photo he cut out of a magazine marked with a red circle and a slash across it. The salon has Obama bags in the window. None of the clients has protested or demanded equal time for McCain, he said.
"It was such a topic of conversation -- everybody wants to talk about Sarah Palin. Even my clients stop me on the street and say, 'How about that Sarah Palin?' " said D'Amico, an Obama supporter. "So I decided I had to put a sign up."
The political partisanship, residents said, is their right as Americans.
Some Prince George's Democrats acknowledge as much.
"This is a highly charged election where the stakes are extremely high and emotions are running high on all fronts," said Orlan Johnson, a lawyer who lives in Bowie and is on Obama's national finance team. "But it is difficult for me to believe that individuals shouldn't continue to have the opportunity to exercise their right to free speech. It would be un-American to not allow that to happen."
Others say residents have a right to register their dissent.
"For a business to display a huge McCain-Palin sign in the middle of such a pro-Democratic and pro-Obama area is business suicide," Franklin said.
At Colony South, Vahabzadeh said the "Country First" message had been posted on the marquee Sunday evening by security guards after they received a memo instructing them to put it up.
Vahabzadeh said he did not know who wrote the memo and has been unable to find it. He has not spoken to the security guards, who work the midnight shift, he said.
The hotel's owner, Francis P. Chiaramonte, could not be reached at the hotel or at his home. His son, Michael Chiaramonte, chairman of the board of the Prince George's County Business Roundtable, did not return a call to his office or to the roundtable office yesterday.
"We support everyone here," Vahabzadeh said of the facility, whose front lawn is frequently adorned with signs for Democratic candidates and has been the venue for the annual prayer breakfast for former state delegate Obie Patterson (D-Prince George's), a recent home foreclosure program called by Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) and a meeting of the African American Democratic Club.
Two weeks ago, a fundraiser for Obama was held there. "If I was so Republican, why would I book an Obama fundraiser?" Vahabzadeh asked.
Bob Ross, 63, a community activist who lives near the hotel, said Obama supporters should see the sign as a reminder that they should "stay vigilant."
"That sign should serve as a reminder that everybody who supports Obama should make sure to bring five or six people with them to the polls Nov. 4. It means that there is still more work to be done."
June White Dillard, president of the Prince George's chapter of the NAACP, said the type of events Colony South has booked in the past is the reason the sign cut so deeply.
Mary Brantley, a travel agency owner from Upper Marlboro, belongs to the health club at Colony South and was among those who complained to the hotel. She was heartened to see the marquee changed Wednesday. It now advertises football games.
But as she drove past the hotel Friday afternoon, she couldn't help notice the two large banners in the front yard proclaiming: "McCain Palin. Country First." Again.
LOAD-DATE: October 14, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jenna Johnson -- The Washington Post; Signs for the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin near the marquee at Colony South Hotel & Conference Center in Clinton -- right in Barack Obama territory -- have spurred calls for boycotts of the facility.
IMAGE; By Nikki Kahn -- The Washington Post; "Everybody wants to talk about Sarah Palin," said Richard D'Amico of Axis hair salon in Northwest Washington. So the Obama supporter put a sign up discouraging that. The salon also has Obama bags in its front window.
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October 11, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
McCain Draws Line on Attacks as Crowds Cry 'Fight Back'
BYLINE: By ELISABETH BUMILLER; Adam Nagourney contributed reporting from New York.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 12
LENGTH: 1088 words
LAKEVILLE, Minn. -- After a week of trying to portray Senator Barack Obama as a friend of terrorists who would drive the country into bankruptcy, Senator John McCain abruptly changed his tone on Friday and told voters at a town-hall-style meeting that Mr. Obama was ''a decent person'' and a ''family man'' and suggested that he would be an acceptable president should he win the White House.
But moments later, Mr. McCain, the Republican nominee, renewed his attacks on Mr. Obama for his association with the 1960s radical William Ayers and told the crowd, ''Mr. Obama's political career was launched in Mr. Ayers' living room.''
The dizzying statements came on a confused day when Mr. McCain's campaign pounded Mr. Obama as a ''liar'' in an incendiary television commercial about Mr. Ayers and as Mr. McCain abruptly announced another economic policy proposal, this time a plan to suspend mandatory withdrawals from 401(k) retirement accounts.
The events reflected Mr. McCain's frequently lurching campaign. For the past several weeks, as the polls have shown Mr. Obama, the Democratic nominee, gaining increasing ground, Mr. McCain's traveling road show has veered from message to message and from pumping up hostile crowds to trying to calm them down. Each news cycle seems to bring another tactic as the campaign appears to be trying anything and everything to see what might work.
His temporary embrace of Mr. Obama came as Mr. McCain was repeatedly implored by voters at the town-hall-style meeting to ''fight back'' against Mr. Obama at the next presidential debate, on Wednesday, and to stop him from becoming president. But unlike at an earlier town-hall-style meeting this week in Wisconsin, where Mr. McCain sharply agreed with voters who urged him to punch back, this time he drew a line.
When a man told him he was ''scared'' of an Obama presidency, Mr. McCain replied, ''I want to be president of the United States and obviously I do not want Senator Obama to be, but I have to tell you -- I have to tell you -- he is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared'' of ''as president of the United States.'' The crowd booed loudly at Mr. McCain's response.
Later, a woman stood up at the meeting, held at Lakeville South High School in a far suburb of Minneapolis, and told Mr. McCain that she could not trust Mr. Obama because he was an ''Arab.''
Mr. McCain replied: ''No, ma'am, he's a decent family man, citizen who I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. And that's what this campaign is all about.'' At that, the crowd applauded.
Mr. McCain and his campaign have been harshly criticized this week by Mr. Obama, Democrats, some Republicans and a number of columnists, commentators and editorial writers for stoking angry crowds at rallies, particularly those in which Mr. McCain appears with his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.
Crowds in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have repeatedly booed Mr. Obama and yelled ''off with his head,'' and at a rally in Florida where Ms. Palin appeared without Mr. McCain, The Washington Post reported that a man yelled out ''kill him.'' At the same rally, a racial insult was hurled at an African-American television cameraman.
Representative Elijah E. Cummings, a Maryland Democrat, said Friday in an interview that he was surprised that neither Mr. McCain nor Ms. Palin had reacted, either by chastising audience members or discussing the events later. ''It concerns me greatly when people come to the point where they take a political race, a race for president, and holler out words like 'kill him,' '' he said. ''I just think our country is so much better than that.''
At the same time, Mr. McCain's advisers sought to minimize the impact of those images of angry voters that have repeatedly been broadcast on television in the last two days.
''I don't think it's that big a deal,'' Rick Davis, Mr. McCain's campaign manager, told reporters in a conference call on Friday. ''I think political rallies have always attracted people who have an emotional connection to the outcome of an election.''
Nicolle Wallace, one of Mr. McCain's senior aides, tried to turn the tables on Mr. Obama on Friday and accuse him of denigrating the people who go to Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin's rallies. ''Broadsides against our supporters are insulting,'' she said. ''He attacks the same people he once called bitter.''
Within the campaign, there is a difference of opinion on the attacks, and some of Mr. McCain's closest advisers have felt he should also criticize Mr. Obama for his ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. But they say Mr. McCain believes that if he does so, he will be accused of racism.
''I personally believe that Jeremiah Wright is a legitimate issue to bring up,'' one of Mr. McCain's top advisers said. ''But the candidate is refusing to do that out of an abundance of caution.''
Mr. McCain appeared far more cheerful and relaxed at the town-hall-style meeting in Lakeville than he has at any other recent campaign event. He smiled broadly, laughed easily and told a number of well-worn jokes from similar forums of a year ago. He kept the event going for more than an hour, even after his aides said it was time to bring it to a close.
But although the crowd was not as large and angry as previous crowds -- Ms. Palin appears to attract greater numbers of frustrated voters -- Mr. McCain at numerous points had to try to tone down the intensity.
At one point, after a voter told him he wanted to see a ''real fight'' at the debate and the crowd responded with a roar, Mr. McCain replied, ''We want to fight, and I will fight, but we will be respectful.''
Then he added, ''I admire Senator Obama and his accomplishments, I will respect him.'' The crowd interrupted Mr. McCain to boo, but he kept talking. ''I want everyone to be respectful and let's make sure we are, because that's the way politics should be conducted in America.''
At that point, the crowd applauded.
Correction: October 13, 2008, Monday
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: Because of an editing error, an article on Saturday about the changing tactics of Senator John McCain's campaign misstated, in some editions, Mr. McCain's reaction to a woman's comment at his rally in Lakeville, Minn., that Senator Barack Obama was not trustworthy because he was an ''Arab.'' Mr. McCain told the woman, ''No Ma'am, he's a decent family man, citizen.'' Mr. McCain did not fail to respond to the woman's accusation.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: John McCain and supporters at a rally on Friday in La Crosse, Wis. The tone of his campaign has veered back and forth as Barack Obama has gained ground.(PHOTOGRAPHS BY STEPHEN CROWLEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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October 11, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Attacking Obama's Associations
BYLINE: By MICHAEL COOPER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 13
LENGTH: 569 words
The Republican National Committee began running an advertisement called ''Chicago Way'' on Friday in Indiana, a traditionally Republican state where Senator Barack Obama is showing strength, and Wisconsin, which has gone narrowly for Democrats in recent elections but which Senator John McCain is trying to win.
PRODUCER On Message Inc.
SCRIPT A man says: ''The Chicago Way. Shady politics. That's Barack Obama's training. His teachers? Tony Rezko, convicted of corruption, money laundering, aiding and abetting bribery. Rezko got Obama in on a shady land deal. William Daley, heir to the Chicago machine, a top Obama adviser. And William Ayers, leader of a terrorist group that bombed the U.S. Capitol. Obama's first campaign was launched at a gathering at Mr. Ayers's home. There's more you need to know. The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.''
ON THE SCREEN A red neon sign saying ''The Chicago Way'' flickers to life above a black and white photograph of the city's skyline. The words ''Barack Obama'' zoom into the shot. The scene cuts to a shot of cobblestone pavement with feet walking, casting long shadows. A picture captioned ''Tony Rezko'' appears, and a citation drops saying, ''Rezko convicted of corruption,'' followed by another that says, ''Obama and his Rezko ties.'' A picture captioned ''political boss William Daley'' appears. A picture captioned ''Fmr. terrorist William Ayers'' appears, joined by a picture of Mr. Obama, and text saying ''Obama's first campaign was launched ... at Mr. Ayers's home.'' The pictures disappear, and the words ''There's more you need to know'' appear.
ACCURACY Although he has been criticized for his ties to Mr. Rezko, who raised money for his past campaigns, Mr. Obama has never been implicated in any wrongdoing connected to him. The ''land deal'' referred to took place in 2005, before Mr. Rezko was indicted, when Mr. Rezko's wife bought an empty lot adjacent to the house the Obamas were buying, and later sold it to them. Mr. Obama later called the transaction ''boneheaded.'' The reference to Mr. Daley is puzzling. When Mr. Daley was commerce secretary in the Clinton administration, he was praised by none other than Mr. McCain, who was then chairman of the Senate commerce committee. And the effort to tie Mr. Obama to Mr. Ayers is overstated. Mr. Ayers, who is now an education professor in Chicago, did host a coffee for Mr. Obama's first run for office, and serve with him on a charitable board, but the two men do not appear to have been close, and Mr. Obama does not appear to have expressed sympathy for Mr. Ayers's past radical actions.
SCORECARD With Mr. McCain and Republicans slipping in the polls as the economic crisis spreads, they have begun to attack Mr. Obama's character in the hope of, as one McCain adviser put it, ''turning the page on the financial crisis.'' But such a tactic carries its own risks because Mr. McCain is not without his own questionable associations. As a member of the Keating Five in the 1980s, he was rebuked by the Senate for ''poor judgment'' after he met with regulators investigating one of his major political donors, Charles H. Keating Jr., who later went to prison after his savings and loan collapsed, at great cost to taxpayers. There is also the risk that such attacks will be seen as petty at a time of a national economic crisis. MICHAEL COOPER
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The New York Times
October 11, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Couric Rebounds With Web And Palin
BYLINE: By JACQUES STEINBERG
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; The Arts/Cultural Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1264 words
Katie Couric has been the most watched, most talked-about network news anchor this election season. Just not necessarily on CBS.
Consider that the three most popular YouTube videos of her interviews with Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, have been seen nearly six million times over the last two weeks, far more than similar interviews with Ms. Palin by others.
And while YouTube views do not bring in the kind of advertising dollars CBS expects from a newscast, the network has corralled a big-name sponsor, Intel, for the occasional nighttime political Webcast that Ms. Couric has started on cbsnews.com. It was originally a video post-mortem introduced during the Democratic and Republican conventions and has since continued with the presidential debates.
In an interview this week in her CBS News office, Ms. Couric spoke of the satisfaction she has found in the fresh set of metrics that of late have collectively served as a reminder that she and her program still matter.
Though advertisers and rivals noted that her interviews with Ms. Palin did not budge the ''CBS Evening News'' out of third place in the nightly news ratings -- the program's standing, it should also be noted, for nearly two decades before her arrival -- the segments helped her reassert her role as an anchor. They ended up serving as a virtual reintroduction of Ms. Couric, following the criticism that was heaped on her in the early months of her tenure at CBS.
''It's nice to have people acknowledge you have a skill set,'' she said, laughing, though not necessarily easily. ''There was a period of time when I was being assaulted from all sides. I never obviously intended to show it, but maybe I didn't have as much confidence on the air.''
After years of speculation about whether young (or even middle-aged) viewers will ever again turn on a dinnertime network newscast, Ms. Couric and her producers appear to have made an end run around the network itself. By getting their best programming (or at least excerpts of it) online, they may have seized on a template for the not-so-distant future, tapping into the Web as a neon road sign directing traffic to their network broadcasts and perhaps, eventually, as a destination in itself.
In the spring CBS acknowledged that Ms. Couric and several network executives had discussed the possibility of her ending her tenure on the evening news before her contract expired in 2011, and perhaps as soon as early next year.
Asked if the coverage of the last few weeks in particular had provided her with a new blueprint of what the broadcast could be in the early months of a new presidential administration, Ms. Couric said such questions were premature.
''I haven't really been able to look beyond Nov. 4, in terms of how things are going to shake out,'' she said. ''It's very exciting living in the moment right now.''
In part Ms. Couric and her team at the ''CBS Evening News'' -- including Rick Kaplan, the program's executive producer, who began his career as a producer for Walter Cronkite -- have benefited this fall from events outside their control. The presidential campaign of Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee, has done little to hide its frustration with some of the outspoken commentary against it on MSNBC (and, by association, NBC News as a whole) and CNN; neither has been granted an interview with Ms. Palin so far.
And yet Ms. Couric and Mr. Kaplan have done much to make their own luck. For months they have been giving over an increasing portion of the ''CBS Evening News'' to political coverage. Early on the program introduced a standing feature, ''Primary Questions,'' in which all of the major candidates for the Democratic and Republican nomination were asked the same 10 questions about character, including the last time they had been angry about something or whether trust in a marriage should be a barometer of trust in office.
''When we asked that of certain candidates, they went white,'' Mr. Kaplan said.
The segments, which ran as long as eight minutes, an eternity in a broadcast that lasts 22 minutes without commercials, have since morphed into the recurring segments ''Presidential Questions'' and ''Vice-Presidential Questions.''
Those features also served to introduce many of the show's producers to the senior advisers of the various campaigns. In the case of the McCain campaign, those contacts were further solidified in July when Ms. Couric and Mr. Kaplan sought to provide a counterbalance to an interview she did in Jordan with Senator Barack Obama, his first with a network anchor during a highly publicized international tour. By satellite from the Middle East, Ms. Couric conducted a separate interview with Mr. McCain that was then shown on the same broadcast.
It was a gesture the McCain campaign would remember, Mr. Kaplan said.
Once Mr. McCain tapped Ms. Palin as his vice-presidential nominee, Ms. Couric said, she began working her contacts furiously, including making phone calls and sending e-mail messages to Nicolle Wallace, a former CBS political analyst who is now a top adviser to the McCain campaign.
Her interviews with Ms. Palin ultimately served as a reminder not only to her viewers but also to her bosses of what helped make her such a star when she was on NBC's ''Today.''
''For a while I was told really not to do any interviews on the show, which is of course what I love to do,'' she said, suggesting that the network feared taking precious time from the news of the day. ''That wasn't, in my mind, using me to my full advantage.''
It also restored her somewhat as a cultural figure. Ms. Couric said she was able to laugh at the recent ''Saturday Night Live'' sketch in which Amy Poehler played her and Tina Fey played Ms. Palin. Though Ms. Palin got the worst of it -- in Ms. Fey's hands she referred to the Museum of Natural History as ''that goofy evolution museum'' and Bono as ''the king of Ireland'' -- Ms. Couric was depicted as blinking like a windshield wiper on a stormy night.
Ms. Couric said she had later called her mother to ask, ''Do I really blink that much on TV?'' Her mother's reply: ''Only when you're tired.''
A few months ago Ms. Couric created her own YouTube channel, which includes outtakes of interviews and lighter fare.
Following the vice-presidential debate, she filmed a late-night outing to a custard shop in St. Louis. Trailed by a hand-held camera, a giddy Ms. Couric can be overheard talking to a counter clerk as if she were a world leader: ''I'm going over here to do an exclusive one-on-one interview with Nancy.''
Ms. Couric's principal rivals have Web portals of their own, too, with Brian Williams of ''NBC Nightly News'' posting video and commentary to ''The Daily Nightly'' on msnbc.com and Charles Gibson's broadcast mounting a midafternoon Web cast at abc.com. But for viewers seeking a reminder of what Ms. Couric was like at her best on ''Today,'' her postdebate Webcasts show her unconfined by the time and other constraints of a nightly newscast. (She can be heard occasionally singing the Intel chimes -- ba-BUM-ba-BUM -- when not lingering over queries to colleagues or a panel of undecided voters.)
When Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, greeted Ms. Couric via satellite on her Webcast on Tuesday by saying, ''Good morning, Katie,'' Ms. Couric reminded him with a laugh that it was not quite 11:30 p.m., and she was no longer on ''Today.''
''You're used to saying that to me in the good old days,'' she said.
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Katie Couric on the set of the ''CBS Evening News.'' Ms. Couric has reinvented herself with her interviews with Gov. Sarah Palin. (PHOTOGRAPH BY CHRISTIAN HANSEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(C6)
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October 11, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Inside The Times: October 11, 2008
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LENGTH: 2323 words
INTERNATIONAL
AS FOCUS TURNS TO PIRATES,
Crisis in Somalia Worsens
Somali pirates demanding millions of dollars for their hijacked ship full of weapons have grabbed the world's attention, but the slow-burn suffering of millions of Somalis seems to go almost unnoticed. Unemployment, drought, inflation, a squeeze on global food supplies and a war that will not end combine to push Somalia ever closer to the abyss in what United Nations officials have called ''the forgotten crisis.'' PAGE A6
PROTEST BY IRANIAN MERCHANTS
Merchants in traditional bazaars in several large cities in Iran closed their shops this week to protest a decision by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to enforce the nation's first sales tax. Bazaars are the backbone of the country's traditional economy, and still wield significant power. Some analysts said the driving issue behind the closings was really the worsening of the economy. PAGE A8
TODAY'S EPISODE: THE OFFICE SEEKER
Thomas King made his name as Tom King, the straight man in ''The Dead Dog Cafe Comedy Hour,'' a popular and long-running series of 15-minute radio programs he created and wrote. Now he is trying to trade that role for a seat in Canada's House of Commons. He reasoned that it was finally time to leave ''night shift politics'' for a more conventional political platform. PAGE A8
CHRISTIANS FLEE IN WAKE OF KILLINGS
Hundreds of Christians are fleeing Mosul, Iraq, in the wake of a string of killings that appear to be singling out Christians in the city where many had taken refuge from persecution in other parts of the country. The shootings in Mosul come on the heels of an angry dispute over the Iraqi Parliament's decision to drop a provision in an earlier version of the provincial elections law that ensured political representation for Christians and other minorities. PAGE A10
PARTIAL COMPLIANCE BY RUSSIA
European leaders confirmed that Russia had met a deadline to withdraw troops from buffer zones outside the breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, though the French foreign minister said Russia had only ''partially complied'' with a European-brokered peace accord. Georgia formally protested the continuing presence of Russian troops in two areas. PAGE A9
BOMBER HITS ANTI-TALIBAN MEETING
A suicide bomber detonated a vehicle laden with explosives during a meeting of elders in Pakistan's tribal territories, killing more than 40 people and injuring more than 100. The attack came after elders in the Orakzai area had vowed to push Taliban extremists out of their region, and were planning the details of how to wipe out a Taliban headquarters. PAGE A10
national
EFFORTS BY MCCAIN TO LINK
Obama to Controversial Group
Senator John McCain's presidential campaign stepped up its efforts to tie Senator Barack Obama to a community organizing group that has been accused of involvement in problematic voter registrations in several hotly contested states, including Colorado, Indiana, Nevada and North Carolina. The Obama campaign described the charges as a spurious attempt to tie Senator Obama to potentially fraudulent voter registrations. PAGE A13
BOARD RULES FOR SUICIDE BARRIER
After decades of debate -- and unknown numbers of lost lives -- the board that controls the Golden Gate Bridge took a major step toward building a suicide barrier, voting to erect a net under the span. The current plan still must pass an environmental review and also needs funding. But despite that lingering uncertainty, supporters of the plan hailed the board's decision. PAGE A11
RESTORING CITY'S BELOVED CEMETERY
For 158 years, Atlantans have congregated in Historic Oakland Cemetery for picnics, battles, weddings and, of course, funerals. But even proud old Oakland could not withstand the tornado that battered downtown Atlanta in March, crushing trees, decapitating stone angels that guarded family memorials and toppling gravestones. And in a city famous for rising from ashes, Oakland is working hard to recover. PAGE A11
MARS ROVER'S MISSION IS A GO
Despite another overrun that could push its cost to more than $2 billion, NASA's next generation Mars rover mission remains on track for launching next fall, NASA officials said. Because of delays in some components like motors to move the rover's joints, additional staffing and resources were needed to keep the project on schedule, said the director of the Mars Exploration Program. PAGE A16
obituaries
NADIA NERINA, 80
A principal ballerina for the Royal Ballet known for her technical virtuosity, lightness afoot, effortless-seeming jumps and joyful charm onstage, especially in comedic roles. PAGE B10
EILEEN HERLIE, 90
For 32 years, she was the wise matron Myrtle Fargate on the ABC soap opera ''All My Children,'' and earlier an acclaimed performer on Broadway and the London stage. PAGE B10
NEW YORK
THE UNSEEN RESIDENTS
Of Yankee Stadium and Shea
It has all been quite private and on the sly; the Yankees and Mets have never officially permitted the ashes of the departed to be scattered in their stadiums. But the fact is, when demolition crews start their work on the House That Ruth Built and Shea Stadium, they will be dealing with the ghosts of more than just former players like Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. There are fans like Ned Marvin. PAGE A17
REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS TURNING
Some longtime Republican strongholds in New York are becoming increasingly Democratic, a change driven by demographic shifts, intense voter registration and sagging Republican fortunes. The state as a whole has grown steadily more Democratic in recent years, but now Republicans are falling behind even in places like Long Island, where Nassau County -- once home to the most formidable Republican machine in the country -- reported this week, for the first time in its history, having more registered Democrats than Republicans. PAGE A17
SPORTS
A FORMER STAR-TO-BE
Now Faces Twin Challenges
When his former team, No. 3 Louisiana State, plays No. 11 Florida in front of 92,000 fans and a national television audience Saturday night in Gainesville, Fla. Ryan Perrilloux will be in Richmond, Ky., playing for Jacksonville State against Eastern Kentucky. That's because Perrilloux miscalculated once too often with Coach Les Miles of L.S.U. and found himself an ex-Tiger. Now he faces the twin challenges of redemption and reckoning. PAGE D5
FULL-TIME PART-TIMER
Alex Cora's job -- he prefers the term ''utility player'' -- requires persistence and perseverance. He prepares every day as if he were a starter for the Boston Red Sox, even though he rarely is. In some respects, he is a victim of his own talent: he is adept at playing intermittently, not an easy role to fill. Cora hit .270 in 152 at-bats spread over 75 games. Among A.L. shortstops with at least 150 at-bats, Cora ranked first with a .371 on-base percentage. More than anything, Cora is a slick defensive player, a must for a reserve infielder. PAGE D3
A POSSIBLE GOOD SIGN FOR BONDS
Tammy Thomas, the former elite cyclist who was convicted in April of making false statements to a grand jury in connection with the Balco investigation, will not serve time in prison. That could be an encouraging sign for the former Giants slugger Barry Bonds, who faces similar charges. Thomas was sentenced to six months' house arrest and five years' probation. Her case had been closely watched by lawyers for Bonds. PAGE D6
BUSINESS
JAPAN GROWS MORE ANXIOUS
As Global Crisis Draws Nearer
Japan, with the world's second-largest economy, had seemed enviably immune from the global financial contagion; its cash-rich banks held little of the subprime debt that contaminated the books of financial institutions in the United States and Europe. But the country is suddenly feeling a lot more vulnerable to the global turmoil, which in recent days has finally begun to show signs of damaging the nation's $5 trillion economy. PAGE B4
FOREIGN DEPOSITORS PETITION ICELAND
The words being exchanged between London and Reykjavik are the most bellicose since the so-called cod wars over fishing rights in the 1970s. Britain is trying to recover deposits stranded in Icelandic banks that failed in the last two weeks. And it is not the only claimant: across Europe, countries, companies and consumers are scouring their portfolios and discovering exposure to the three main Icelandic banks, all of which have been taken over by the government. PAGE B3
FEAR AS A JOB SEARCH HURDLE
Networking in a job search brings up many of the same fears as dating -- of rejection, of looking like an idiot, of overstepping boundaries, of failing. And even if you can overcome those anxieties, you have to know how to do it right. ''Networking needs to be planned and learned,'' said one career services director. PAGE B6
I'LL TAKE WHAT HE'S HAVING
Warren Buffett got rich using uncommon common sense: investing only in businesses he understands, buying shares when they were cheap and holding them for a very long time. For small investors lacking the time, discipline, guts -- and clout -- to follow his method at a time like this, one approach is either to buy what he buys or else buy a piece of his corporate alter-ego, Berkshire Hathaway. PAGE B6
YOUTUBE GOING LONG
YouTube plans to start offering full-length episodes of some television shows on its sprawling Web site, catching up with other Web sites that have promoted long-form video for some time. The longer videos will include advertising before, during and after each episode. Google, YouTube's owner, is under pressure to raise more revenue from the nearly four-year-old video-sharing site. PAGE B2
COSMOGIRL TO FOLD
With ad pages plummeting across the industry, Hearst announced that it was shutting the teenagers' magazine CosmoGirl. The December issue will be the magazine's last. After that, subscribers will receive Seventeen, another Hearst magazine. The company will continue to run the profitable Web site CosmoGirl.com. PAGE B2
ARTS
DECADES SPENT TRAILING
A Shadowy Agency
James Bamford's first book on the National Security Agency in 1982 earned him the threat of prosecution. His second, in 2001, got him a book party hosted by agency officials. In 2005 he joined a lawsuit accusing the agency of breaking the law. Now he has a third book, ''The Shadow Factory: The Ultra-Secret NSA from 9/11 to the Eavesdropping on America,'' due out on Tuesday. He is not expecting another party. PAGE C1
PALIN VIDEOS LIFT COURIC
The three most popular YouTube videos of Katie Couric's interviews with Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska have been watched far more than similar interviews by other anchors. The segments have reasserted Ms. Couric's role as an anchor and may provide a template for the future, tapping into the Web as a neon road sign directing traffic to CBS broadcasts, and perhaps, eventually, as a destination itself. PAGE C1
REHAB IN THE KITCHEN
There is no competition for a single winning spot on ''The Chef Jeff Project,'' a new reality series beginning Sunday on the Food Network. The six participants are working with Jeff Henderson, a former drug dealer who spent his 10 years in prison before working his way to snazzy chef posts. And their lives have been no barrel of laughs, either. PAGE C11
this weekend
BOOK REVIEW
Goldman Sachs has found itself alone on Wall Street, remaining profitable as its former peers in investment banking either merged or evaporated during the financial crisis. Charles D. Ellis, the author of ''The Partnership,'' an immense history of Goldman Sachs, would suggest that this is not an accident. PAGE 19
TRAVEL
New York has a way of reminding everyone from hourly wage strivers to uptown trust-funders that it is always possible to have more, and to spend more. But big-ticket amusements often obscure the city's more enjoyable corners. New York on a budget of $250 a day. PAGE 1
ARTS & LEISURE
Gradually, and without getting much media attention, AC/DC has become the most popular currently active rock band in the country, to judge by albums sold. And with its new album, ''Black Ice,'' increased visibility for the band's catalog at Wal-Mart and a tour that starts Oct. 28, it's possible AC/DC could sell more CDs overall this year than any other act in pop music. PAGE 1
SUNDAY STYLES
A Massachusetts woman dreams she is grilling Nancy Pelosi on the economy. A songwriter wakes up in the middle of the night to check on the Asian markets. A Brooklyn accountant is mortified when her five-year-old says ''I'm John McCain, and I approve this message.'' Red flags for obsession, perhaps. But there's so much news, and it's increasingly easy to plug in. PAGE 1
Editorial
TIME TO ACT
A consensus is emerging on the immediate need to stabilize the financial system. With most of the world's finance ministers and central bankers gathered in Washington this weekend, there is an opportunity to convert this consensus into a concrete strategy. page A22
DRUGS AND DISCLOSURE
We've long feared that the integrity of medical research is being eroded by conflicts of interest and manipulation of scientific data. Still, it was disheartening to learn of two new examples. page A22
THE NAVY AND WHALES
The Supreme Court is considering whether the Navy must restrict its use of sonar in training exercises to protect whales. We hope the court asserts its authority over military activities that can cause environmental harm far from any battlefield. page A22
op-ed
BOB HERBERT
The current financial turmoil is the latest painful chapter in a long-running G.O.P. saga. page A23
GAIL COLLINS
I miss August. August was neat. The Dow was over 10,000 and nobody had ever heard of Sarah Palin. In August, female politicians were afraid of going negative because it might make them look too strident. Amazing, the things you wind up being nostalgic for. page A23
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
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The Washington Post
October 11, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
Will McCain Do Anything to Win?
BYLINE: Harold Ford Jr.
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A21
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Although our nation's economic house is on fire, John McCain isn't unveiling proposals to put out the fiscal flames. Instead, he is pursuing the presidency by taking the low road, as he and his surrogates attack Barack Obama in harsh, personal terms. It's hard to believe this is the same man who in 2004 said of the Swift-boat attacks against John Kerry: "I deplore this kind of politics. I think the ad is dishonest and dishonorable."
In fact, after McCain lost the Republican nomination to George Bush in 2000, he declared that there was a "special place in hell" for the Bush operatives who had run a smear campaign against him. By adopting the same approach against Obama, McCain diminishes his reputation and raises questions about his commitment to fairness and decency.
I know that John McCain is a man of courage and character. His ability to overcome the torture he endured at the hands of his North Vietnamese captors is a tribute to his strength and to the human spirit. But as Americans yearn for a president to lead us courageously into an uncertain future, McCain appears to be abandoning his creed of putting country first.
While I am disappointed in McCain's about-face, I am not surprised. When I ran for the Senate in 2006, my opponent, Bob Corker, also found himself trailing in the October polls. His campaign and the Republican National Committee launched a series of false and vicious character attack ads, including the infamous "call me" ad, in which a scantily clad white woman looked at the camera and said, "Harold, call me."
Every major news organization and independent ad-checking group ruled the ad a smear and deemed it way over the line. But that didn't stop John McCain from coming to Tennessee and campaigning for my opponent while the "call me" ad and other smears were broadcast across the state. Not once did McCain speak out against that ad as he did about the smear against John Kerry. In fact, the first manager he hired for his 2008 presidential campaign was Terry Nelson, the person who produced the "call me" ad. Nelson has such a history of practicing below-the-belt politics that Lee Iacocca, a strong supporter of McCain, wrote in his book "Where Have All the Leaders Gone?": "What does it say about John McCain that he's willing to make that kind of person the head of his team?"
This election may be the most consequential since Franklin Roosevelt won the presidency in 1932. Our country is at war in Iraq and in Afghanistan. The American dream is falling further out of reach of millions of families. We face intense competition from rising economic powers in Asia. And after eight years of the failed leadership of President Bush and Vice President Cheney, our image and standing around the globe are in disrepair. Our budget is burdened with runaway entitlement costs, and our public education system is failing our children.
John McCain has to make a choice over the next 3 1/2 weeks. Will he succumb to base impulses and take the country down a path littered with smears and personal attacks? Or will he focus on the future with straight talk and big ideas? America deserves solutions for its problems. Where are McCain's plans to replace the 750,000 jobs lost since the beginning of the year, to stop our financial meltdown, and to help the families hammered by the prices of gas, food and health care?
The writer is chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council. He represented Tennessee's 9th District in the U.S. House from 1997 to 2007.
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The Washington Post
October 11, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
McCain Mum on Former Pastor;
Some in GOP Frustrated at Omission in Attacks on Obama
BYLINE: Steven A. Holmes and Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A08
LENGTH: 1079 words
As John McCain's campaign hits hard at some of Barack Obama's past associations, one person closely tied to the Democratic candidate is conspicuously absent from the attacks: the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. It is an omission that some Republican strategists and McCain supporters find puzzling and frustrating.
In advertisements, in Web videos and on the campaign trail, McCain repeatedly heaps scorn on Obama for his ties to convicted Chicago financier Antoin "Tony" Rezko and to William Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground, the violent 1970s radical group. The Republican nominee never mentions Wright, the controversial black minister once described by Obama as his spiritual adviser and whom some strategists see as better target than Rezko or Ayers.
McCain made it clear this spring, after Wright's inflammatory sermons became a problem for Obama, that he was opposed to making the pastor a campaign issue. When the North Carolina Republican Party aired an ad using clips of Wright's sermons to cast Obama as an extremist, McCain condemned the commercial at a town hall meeting.
"All I can do is publicly state that that is not in keeping with the tradition of the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan," McCain said. "And I will bring every pressure to bear that I can to stop it."
And in a letter to the state party chair, McCain said the ad "degrades our civics and distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats."
McCain's reluctance to bring up Wright was on display this week at a rally in Waukesha, Wis. There, a black radio talk show host beseeched the candidate to make an issue of the "shady characters" once affiliated with Obama, mentioning Wright by name.
"I am begging you, sir, I am begging you," said James T. Harris, who hosts a radio show in Milwaukee.
McCain changed the subject to the economy.
"When your spiritual adviser is behaving like a race-baiting hatemonger, that's something voters should know about," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist who is not affiliated with the McCain campaign.
Another Republican strategist, who did not want to be identified criticizing the campaign, was more pointed. "It's just silly," he said. "If you're going to play the association game, play the association game.
"There is a much tighter connection, both in terms of their relationship and in terms of the politics of it, between Obama and Reverend Wright than between Obama and William Ayers," the strategist said. "Most people these days think the Weather Underground was a band."
Even McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, has suggested that the campaign ought to make more of Obama's links to Wright. In an interview this week, she told columnist William Kristol, "I don't know why that association isn't discussed more." But, she added, "I guess that would be a John McCain call on whether he wants to bring that up."
The split within the Republican camp illustrates the racial landmines that are strewn about the presidential contest. Abigail Thernstrom, a conservative who writes about racial issues, believes the McCain campaign is afraid to bring up Wright for fear of being labeled racist.
"They're just terrified," Thernstrom said. "People play the race card in two seconds, and it's the nastiest card you can play."
The McCain campaign's reluctance has surprised even some of Obama's black supporters. "I keep waiting for it," said Julian Bond, chairman of the NAACP. "When is this happening? When is this coming? Maybe they're saving it."
Wright, a former pastor of Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago who officiated at Obama's wedding and baptized his two daughters, said in a sermon after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that "America's chickens are coming home to roost" for the country's own acts of "terrorism." In another sermon, he said blacks should sing "God damn America" instead of "God Bless America" to protest centuries of mistreatment.
The controversy forced Obama to give a major address on race relations that drew praise from some commentators, including Thernstrom, but was criticized by others for not going far enough in condemning Wright. After the pastor repeated some of his more contentious views in subsequent appearances, Obama cut off contact with him, and he has dropped out of sight.
Donna Hammond-Miller, media coordinator for Trinity, said that Wright, who has retired as the church's pastor, is "not accepting any interview requests from the media and would have no comment."
After his initial insistence that Wright should not be an issue, McCain relented a bit, saying: "I can understand why the American people are upset about [Wright's comments]. I can understand that Americans viewing these kinds of comments are angry and upset."
But having taken Wright off the table at one point, the McCain campaign would be presented with another problem if it now goes after him. "Race is not the reason," said the Republican strategist. "They don't care. It's the charge of hypocrisy which is the deadliest of all political sins."
Inside his campaign, McCain's initial public promises not to make Wright an issue have held sway. Top aides have consistently said they will not use the pastor as a bludgeon against Obama, even if doing so might be politically advantageous.
And McCain backers say a Wright ad could produce a backlash, giving Obama and Democrats an opening to accuse the Republican of racism.
The big question -- even inside the McCain camp -- is whether a third-party group might choose to ignore the candidate's public position and run an ad featuring Wright.
That would immediately put pressure on McCain to condemn the ad, using his words from April. But doing so could anger some of his base's most fervent voters, who are eager to see their candidate aggressively go after all of Obama's past associations.
At least one neutral observer believes that beyond giving McCain's increasingly angry base something to feel good about, there is little that would be accomplished by making Wright an issue.
"McCain's problem is that he's got advisers telling him that 'the only way we're going to win is to drive up Obama's negatives,' " said David Bositis, a senior fellow at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a think tank specializing in racial issues. "That's not going to work. People are not listening to that. What people want to hear about is the economy. They don't want to hear about, nor do they care about, Ayers or Wright."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Chip Somodevilla -- Getty Images; The Rev. Jeremiah Wright, whom Barack Obama called his spiritual adviser, came under scrutiny for his fiery sermons.
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The Washington Post
October 11, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
McCain Moves to Soften the Tone at Rallies, if Not in Ads
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 1038 words
DATELINE: LAKEVILLE, Minn., Oct. 10
At the end of perhaps the most charged and negative week of the presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain sought to tone down his rhetoric toward Sen. Barack Obama even as his running mate, allies and his own advertising continued to attack the character of the Democratic nominee.
On Friday, McCain urged a crowd of skeptical supporters at a town hall forum in this Minneapolis suburb to be respectful of his rival for the presidency despite their deep policy differences with Obama.
The Republican nominee drew a cascade of boos from the crowd when he called Obama "a decent person" and told an expectant father that he does not have to be scared if he is president of the United States.
"We want to fight and I want to fight, but we will be respectful," McCain said, again prompting loud boos when he declared that he admires Obama's accomplishments. "I want everyone to be respectful, and let's be sure we are. . . . That doesn't mean you have to reduce your ferocity. It's just got to be respectful."
At one point in the event, McCain grabbed back the microphone from an elderly woman who had begun to say that she didn't like Obama because he is an Arab. "No, ma'am. No, ma'am," McCain said. "He's a decent family man, a citizen who I just happen to have serious differences with on fundamental questions."
His comments came a day after an angry crowd at a Wisconsin rally shouted epithets about the Democratic nominee, pumped their fists angrily in the air and catcalled repeatedly when Obama's name was mentioned. Several called him a "socialist," and many flipped their middle finger as a press bus drove by.
McCain appeared determined to respond Friday, saying that he respects Obama and only quieting the boos by saying that "if I didn't think I would be one heck of a better president, I wouldn't be running."
But throughout the day, McCain's allies and advertising unleashed a flurry of attacks on his rival's ethics, touting Obama's ties to a Vietnam War-era radical and accusing him of being connected to a group accused of engaging in voter fraud.
He launched a tough new television ad linking Obama to William Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground, which bombed U.S. facilities in protest of the Vietnam War. The narrator in the ad says Obama "lied" about his relationship with Ayers and accuses the Democrat of "blind ambition, bad judgment."
Later, the McCain campaign hosted a conference call with John M. Murtagh, a target of a bombing linked to Ayers's group, in which Murtagh accused Obama of lying "about the nature and extent of that relationship."
At the town hall, McCain promised not to relent on tying Obama to Ayers, telling the crowd, "We'll be talking about that more."
Campaigning in Ohio, Obama accused McCain of "riling up a crowd by stoking anger and division" and said the negative campaigning will backfire. "They can run misleading ads. They can pursue the politics of anything goes. It will not work. Not this time," Obama said.
The attacks on Obama's character came as the both candidates offered new proposals to address the steep drop in the stock market and the effects of the ongoing fiscal crisis on Wall Street.
Obama proposed a menu of tax cuts and loans for small businesses, a temporary program he said is needed to help "Main Street" and complement what has already been done for major financial institutions. McCain said the federal government should suspend rules that require seniors to begin withdrawing from their retirement accounts when they reach age 70 1/2 to allow them more times to try and recoup recent losses.
But throughout the day, McCain's campaign continued to focus on Obama's character.
The accusation about voter fraud came in a conference call with his campaign manager, Rick Davis, who said he is worried the election is being "stolen" in several battleground states where irregularities have been alleged in voter registrations collected by ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now.
"We don't think the election is something that should be stolen from the American electorate," Davis said, urging Obama to join him in calling for federal investigations and media inquiries into ACORN and its ties to Obama.
"ACORN is an organization that has violated the law on a repeated basis," Davis said. "Barack Obama has given $832,000 within the last year to an organization that is a front group for ACORN."
The McCain campaign put its accusations into a 90-second Web ad, in which an announcer accuses ACORN of "bullying banks, intimidation tactics" and "disruption of business." It says ACORN stands accused of "massive voter fraud" and says "Obama's ties to ACORN run long and deep. . . . They even endorsed him for president."
Obama aides rejected the charge, saying that Obama was never an ACORN community organizer and represented the group only as a lawyer. They said his work as an organizer in 1992 was not connected to the group.
"The McCain campaign's allegations about Senator Obama are completely transparent and false," spokesman Tommy Vietor said. Obama "believes that the registration of voters at record levels is good for our democracy, and the McCain-Palin campaign's false claims are nothing more than another dishonorable, shameful attempt to divert voters' attention from the unprecedented challenges facing their families and our nation."
The voter registration group has come under increased scrutiny since its offices in Nevada were raided Tuesday morning.
Agents with the Nevada secretary of state and attorney general's office raided the group's Clark County headquarters, alleging that ACORN had hired felons to collect signatures and had submitted about 300 apparently fraudulent registration cards.
Officials from ACORN brushed aside the charges of fraud, saying they attempt to verify obviously bogus information on voter registration forms that they collect. But, in many states the law requires them to submit forms to election officials even if they contain suspect information.
"We feel the current strategy from the right is to create and manufacture a so-called crisis of voter fraud," said Brian Kettenring, chief organizer for ACORN in Florida.
Staff writers Robert Barnes and Steven A. Holmes contributed to this report.
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October 11, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
Obama Buys a Half-Hour Block From Networks; 'SNL's' Fauxbama Draws 11 Million Viewers
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C07
LENGTH: 819 words
Barack Obama's presidential campaign is getting a bargain for the half-hour of prime time it's bought on CBS and NBC, and is in talks about buying on ABC and Fox.
The Democratic presidential candidate's camp is paying less than $1 million to each of the two networks to air its campaign-related program on Wednesday, Oct. 29. That's just six days before the election and the anniversary of Black Tuesday in 1929 -- the notorious day in stock market history that heralded the start of the Great Depression.
Obama's campaign might want to create a "roadblock" with the show, which is to say, to air it in the same time period on all four major broadcast networks.
Fox is said to be amenable to selling the half-hour to Obama's campaign -- these are called "time buys" -- in the event there is no Game 6 of the World Series that night. Fox is contractually obligated to carry the game if this year's Series comes to that. Otherwise, the network has nothing to lose airing Obama programming in the time slot, given that its World Series fallback plan is always called "Some Rerun."
Late yesterday, ABC and Obama's camp were still in talks about whether the network will sell the first half of the time slot, which it had earmarked for another episode of hour-long dramedy "Pushing Daisies." The show is one of last year's freshman series hurt by the 100-day writers' strike and that the network is attempting to relaunch this fall, but so far without much luck. ABC execs may believe there is opportunity for "Pushing Daisies" to get more sampling on Oct. 29 if the network does not join in the Obama time buy.
With CBS and NBC's scripted programming scrubbed to make way for Obama, Fox possibly airing baseball and CW running the reality show "America's Next Top Model," "Pushing Daisies" would be the only scripted series in the time slot on broadcast network TV.
Less than $1 million is considerably under what NBC and CBS would otherwise get for the 10 or 11 ad "units" they run during that 8 to 8:30 p.m. half-hour.
But Obama is not getting a price break; the campaign will be charged what's called the "lowest unit cost," in compliance with federal law.
What will Obama get for his not quite $2 million? Wednesday night at 8 has not been a real ratings bonanza this season. This week, for instance, CBS averaged 7.2 million voting-age (18 years and up) viewers for the Julia Louis-Dreyfus sitcom "The New Adventures of Old Christine," and NBC clocked 5.7 million viewers in that age bracket for its resuscitation of "Knight Rider." ABC averaged 5.2 million voting-age viewers with "Pushing Daisies" and Fox 9.2 million with "Bones."
On the other hand, The Barack Obama Show might improve the time-slot performance for those networks carrying it. Pre-election programming has been among the most watched this year. Tuesday's presidential debate between John McCain and Obama drew about 66 million viewers, and, the week before, the vice presidential debate between Sen. Joe Biden and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin logged more than 73 million -- a record for a veep debate and the second-most-watched debate ever, of any kind, VP or presidential.
Obama's time-buy simulcast will be the first by a presidential candidate since Ross Perot peppered the prime-time landscape with a whopping 15 telecasts during his 1992 presidential bid. Overall, the Perot shows drew an average of nearly 12 million viewers. His one simulcast, on ABC and CBS, on Nov. 2, 1992, bagged 26 million.
The Obama campaign program airing on even two broadcast networks just six days before the election puts the squeeze on McCain to make some kind of similar move. Each camp, for instance, purchased a national ad during NBC's telecast of the highly rated Summer Olympics in Beijing.
But McCain's campaign agreed to accept federal matching funds, which limits his campaign spending in the weeks leading up to the election.
* * *
Barack Obama's representatives had been in talks with the broadcast networks about doing a roadblock paid show on other nights, including Nov. 3, the night before the election. But that's the night NBC has scheduled its traditional pre-election "Saturday Night Live" prime-time presidential bash.
This election cycle, "SNL" for the first time will air four election-related prime-time shows, the first of which aired Thursday with great ratings results. The 30-minute special, from 9:30 to 10 p.m., clocked nearly 11 million viewers. NBC said it was the most-watched regularly scheduled "Saturday Night Live" broadcast since Jan. 20, 2001.
The broadcast featured a spoof of the second presidential debate and its host, Tom Brokaw, as well as an expanded "Weekend Update" segment.
At this rate, the pre-election "SNL"-cast could conceivably give the show's 2000 presidential bash a ratings run for its money. That special, headlined with an appearance by candidates George W. Bush and Al Gore, attracted approximately 16 million viewers.
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The New York Times
October 10, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Inside The Times
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LENGTH: 1862 words
INTERNATIONAL
NORTH KOREA BARS INSPECTORS
From Nuclear Complex
North Korea heightened pressure on the Bush administration by barring international inspectors from all parts of its Yongbyon nuclear complex, even as administration officials said they believed that they were close to a deal to end a stalemate with the North over its nuclear program. PAGE A14
IRAQI LAWMAKER KILLED IN BOMBING
A member of the Iraqi Parliament from the political movement of the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr was killed in a roadside bombing in Baghdad. The attack prompted supporters of Mr. Sadr to hold the United States responsible. The American ambassador to Iraq and the commander of the United States troops there condemned the attack as a ''heinous crime.'' PAGE A12
CRISIS RECALLS '90S FOR JAPAN
America's financial crisis has given Japan a sense of deja vu and brought various comparisons by Japan's press and policy makers to their own country's banking crisis in the 1990s, and its costly government bailouts. The prediction in Japan is that the United States faces an arduous journey to financial recovery. ''There is a lot more pain and turmoil coming,'' said an official with the industry watchdog that oversaw Japan's banking cleanup. PAGE A13
CHINA BANS DRUG AFTER DEATHS
The Chinese government, already grappling with the scandal over tainted milk, banned the sale and use of one brand of an herbal medicine after three people injected with it died and three others fell seriously ill. The State Food and Drug Administration identified the problem drug as a preparation of Siberian ginseng made by Wandashan Pharmaceutical. It was not immediately clear whether Wandashan marketed its products outside China. PAGE A14
HEROIC RESCUE? MAYBE NOT
The Egyptian government says that the 11 European tourists and their 8 Egyptian guides and drivers held captive by bandits for 10 days last month were freed as the result of an ''operation,'' and the state-controlled media in Egypt reported the release as the result of a heroic commando raid. But a former prisoner tells a different story, and an opposition member of Parliament has demanded an investigation. PAGE A8
WARY RETURN FOR GEORGIAN REFUGEES
Emotions were mixed all over Georgia, as families streamed back to their homes from refugee camps. Though government officials urged refugees to wait until their villages have been cleared of unexploded ordnance left after a brief war with Russia, it was impossible to stop them. page A6
national
INDIAN TRIBES SEE PROFIT
In Wind for Power
Wind is to South Dakota what forests are to Maine or beaches are to Florida: a natural and valuable inheritance. Native American tribes like the Rosebud Sioux now seek to claim that inheritance by building turbine farms to harness some of the country's strongest and most reliable winds, which can lead to a new economic underpinning for the 29,000 tribal members. PAGE A15
BUSH TRANSITION PLANS
President Bush took steps to deal with the aftermath of Election Day, issuing an executive order intended to govern a smooth transition to the next administration. The order creates a council to coordinate the handoff of the presidency to either John McCain or Barack Obama and speed up the nominations of hundreds of officials joining the next administration. PAGE A20
INQUIRY ON EAVESDROPPING
The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator John D. Rockefeller IV, said the committee would investigate claims by two military eavesdroppers that they routinely listened in on private calls home from American military officers, aid workers and journalists stationed in Iraq. ''Any time there is an allegation regarding abuse of the privacy and civil liberties of Americans it is a very serious matter,'' he said. PAGE A16
MARS ROVER'S NEXT MISSION
NASA's next big mission is ambitious, perhaps too ambitious. The goal is to send a robotic rover the size of a small S.U.V. to Mars. The rover, called the Mars Science Laboratory, would be powered by a nuclear battery and able to roam far and wide, gathering information with a suite of powerful instruments, including a laser to vaporize rocks. But $100 million may stand in the way of its launching next year with NASA's overall tight budget. PAGE A17
obituaries
GEORGE E. PALADE, 95
His discoveries about the intricate inner workings of cells helped give birth to the field of modern cell biology and earned him a Nobel Prize. Dr. Palade pioneered in using electron microscopy, and his findings later proved useful in understanding diseases and in the protein production that is the basis of the biotechnology industry. PAGE A27
KIM CHAN
An actor who became a familiar face in a variety of Asian roles, notably as Jerry Lewis's butler in the Martin Scorsese film ''The King of Comedy,'' a character who did furious battle with an obsessed fan played by Robert De Niro. His niece Judy Gee, who confirmed his death, said that he was probably 93 or 94. PAGE A27
SPORTS
DROPPING A LACROSSE STICK
To Carry a Pigskin
In high school, Evan Royster was among the most coveted lacrosse prospects in the country. He shined at summer camps, scored 33 goals his senior year and was named a high school All-American. But for college, he chose football, a decision that has worked out rather well. As the starting tailback for Penn State, he has used his shiftiness and vision to help drive a breakneck offense. PAGE B15
A SPOTLIGHT ON LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHTS
Chad Dawson, right, is one of the world's best light-heavyweight boxers, a young star with a spotless professional record and career earnings approaching millions of dollars. His bout Saturday night against Antonio Tarver, left, a 39-year-old three-time light-heavyweight champion, is one of the most highly anticipated match-ups in recent years. The attention is the kind usually reserved for heavier -- or lighter -- boxers. PAGE B14
AN AGENT'S CONSTELLATION
A lot of baseball people -- including people who make a living writing or talking about it -- were infuriated last year when word got out during Game 4 of the World Series that Alex Rodriguez had decided to opt out of his contract with the Yankees. They blamed Scott Boras, his agent, for the leak, and accused Boras of showing a lack of respect for the game by stealing attention from its signature event. If Boras has suffered any from the opprobrium, it isn't obvious from this year's playoffs. PAGE B11
NEW YORK
YOUNG AND GREEN,
And Applying the Heat
Steeped in environmentalism at school, in houses of worship, through scouting and even via popular culture, a growing army of ''eco-kids'' are trying to hold their parents accountable at home. They pore over garbage bins in search of errant recyclables. They turn off the lights in empty rooms. They lobby for solar panels. Money, for them, is no object. And their parents can end up feeling the pressure. PAGE A25
WORKER DIES IN MANHOLE EXPLOSION
An explosion in a manhole where Consolidated Edison workers had been splicing cables left one worker dead and another one injured in Brooklyn. George Dillman, 26, died after an explosion rocked the manhole, filled with 120-volt power lines, at the intersection of Euclid and Sutter Avenues in East New York. The cause of the explosion was under investigation. Con Edison officials said it was the first time in more than four years that one of its electrical workers had died on the job. PAGE A26
BUSINESS
CAPITALISM-HAPPY ESTONIA
Faces First Serious Downturn
Estonia, which for its two post-Communist decades has embraced capitalism with gusto, is slogging through its first serious economic downturn since liberation from the Soviet grip in the early 1990s. Political and business leaders say the challenge will include a transition from an economy based on breathless consumption to one based on the harder work of selling goods and services to the world. PAGE B6
ICELAND MAY TURN TO I.M.F.
Iceland's financial system collapsed, and analysts said it was probably only a matter of time before the country would have to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help, a move that Iceland has tried desperately to avoid. PAGE B6
TRYING TO CLOSE A MERGER
Apollo Management offered to pay $540 million to help close the $6.5 billion merger between its subsidiary, Hexion Specialty Chemicals, and a rival chemical maker, the Huntsman Corporation. The offer was an effort to prod banks that have committed to financing the deal to live up to their lending agreements, not easy in the current credit markets. PAGE B4
PRIUS MAY GET OWN BRAND
Toyota is considering creating a separate brand for its Prius hybrid car, and may add both larger and smaller Prius models to its lineup. James E. Lentz III, president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., said that if approved, the Prius brand would be similar to Scion, Toyota's brand of lower-priced cars aimed at younger buyers. PAGE B7
ESCAPES
HOME AGAIN, HOME AGAIN,
The Vacation Jig
Some people can't wait to get out of their hometowns; others never even think about leaving. And then there is a third group who live elsewhere, but own a vacation property in their hometowns or environs. PAGE D1
WINTERING WITH HORSES
The reputation of Aiken, S.C., as a haven for horse lovers got its start in the late 1800s when wealthy Northerners, including the Whitneys, Vanderbilts and Astors, discovered Aiken's agreeable climate and found that its loamy clay soil was perfect footing for their horses' hooves. Now the area is experiencing the rebirth of its ''winter colony'' days. PAGE D3
ACCENTUATING THE VIEW
In a vacation home, sitting and staring out the window can be considered a productive use of time, especially when the view is something to behold. Choosing the right type of window can make the view even better. PAGE D2
Editorial
BUILDING A BETTER BAILOUT
It's still unclear how and to what extent the Treasury Department will inject capital and assume ownership in United States banks. But it is clear that the new approach would be more than a tactical shift. page A32
FISCAL DISASTER IN CALIFORNIA
The last thing California residents need at this point are new policies that land even more people behind bars and that drive up prison spending still further. page A32
CITIZEN TERRORISTS DELETED
The homeland security mania has invited some startling abuses of police power, but we have yet to hear of any more knuckle-headed than one in Maryland. page A32
op-ed
PAUL KRUGMAN
Policy players have reached a moment of truth: They'd better do something soon. In fact, they'd better announce a coordinated financial rescue plan this weekend -- or the world economy may well experience its worst slump since the Great Depression. page A33
DAVID BROOKS
What had been a disdain for liberal intellectuals slipped into a disdain for the educated class as a whole. The liberals had coastal condescension, so the conservatives developed their own anti-elitism, with mirror-image categories and mirror-image resentments, but with the same corrosive effect. page A33
AN ECONOMY TO BANK ON
The Treasury Department may try to rescue the economy by buying ownership stakes in many American banks. But saving America's banks won't save the economy, Casey B. Mulligan, an economist, writes in an Op-Ed article. page A33
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The New York Times
October 10, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Lawmakers Weigh Plan For Stimulus
BYLINE: By LOUIS UCHITELLE
SECTION: Section B; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1125 words
The Federal Reserve and Congress are pushing out close to $1 trillion to repair the nation's financial system and to encourage lending. But that is not enough to revive the economy. Spending has to resume.
Consumers, however, have cut back sharply on their spending, in what will be the first quarterly decline in 17 years when the government tally is in for the third quarter.
Business, in response, is shrinking its outlays for equipment, supplies and personnel. And now dozens of state and city governments, their tax revenue falling short of expectations, are engaged in yet another round of cost-cutting.
To offset this shrinkage, and head off a severe recession, the Democratic leadership in Congress is ''seriously considering'' a large fiscal stimulus proposal, which would send a significant amount of money to states and cities.
''We have to prop up consumption,'' Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview in which he revealed some of the details the party leadership is discussing.
The new proposal would be far greater than the $60 billion stimulus package that the House passed in late September, Mr. Frank said.
The Senate has not acted on the earlier bill, which was dwarfed in attention and scope by the sums being pledged to Wall Street companies and commercial banks.
Congress, now in recess, would be asked to return after the November election to act on the proposal in a lame-duck session.
This new effort would be more diverse than the stimulus that Congress, with bipartisan support, approved early this year and President Bush signed. That package, at a cost of $107 billion, mostly went to low- and moderate-income families, in the form of checks in the spring and early summer. Those checks lifted spending for a while, many economists concluded, and helped compensate consumers as gasoline prices surged. But an unknown amount was used to pay down debt or buy imports. Neither lifts output in this country.
Republicans embraced the last stimulus plan, and they might very well embrace another. But their long-held position has been that the best way to give the economy a boost is through tax cuts at the corporate and individual level. They also express concerns that some money funneled to the states would be spent inefficiently, for example on programs that would generate few jobs.
The Democratic proposal would provide tax relief in some form for families, the goal being to step up their spending, as the rebates were intended to do earlier this year. In addition, unemployment insurance benefits would be extended beyond 39 weeks and the food stamp program would expand. Both would channel money to people who would probably spend every penny to meet their needs. But the biggest chunk, perhaps as much as $150 billion, would go to states and cities to sustain their everyday spending.
The rationale for another stimulus package, particularly one that helps the states and cities, is compelling for many economists. The nearly $1 trillion that Congress and the Federal Reserve are making available to the financial system is intended to make credit more available. That props up the supply side.
But to make the economy grow, or stop contracting, demand is required. Consumers, businesses and governments need confidence to spend their own incomes or tap credit from a repaired financial system. In the case of states and cities whose revenue is shrinking, bigger federal subsidies would ease the need to cut so many jobs and services to balance their budgets.
''That is the whole rationale for giving money to the states and cities,'' said Alan S. Blinder, a Princeton University economist who served in the Clinton administration and also as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. ''Deciding not to cut spending is the functional equivalent of spending more. Either one leads to more spending than you otherwise would have.''
State and local spending accounts for 12 percent of nation's economic activity. There is a widespread contraction in their spending now because of lower revenue and laws that require them to balance their budgets.
''We know there are at least 15 states that have fallen out of balance since early summer,'' said Iris J. Lav, deputy director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. ''We don't have estimates of the gaps for all of them. Only 11 estimated the amount, but their shortfall alone totaled $5.9 billion. That is on top of the $48 billion in gaps that all 50 states were forced to close to balance their budgets for the fiscal year that began in most cases on July 1.''
Indianapolis, to take just one of hundreds of examples, reduced to 12 from 24 the number of deputy chiefs and assistant chiefs in its police command staff. ''It was kind of bloated anyway,'' said Marcus Barlow, a spokesman for Mayor Greg Ballard.
In Phoenix, every department of the city government has been asked to propose a 30 percent spending reduction, on top of the 12.5 percent cut that was effective on July 1. If tax revenue does not revive and there is no lifeline from Washington, those reductions or some portion of them will go into effect by early next year, said Robert Wingenroth, the Phoenix finance director.
''Our city government is mostly people, so we would have to reduce people,'' he said.
Under the stimulus package that the Congressional Democratic leadership is considering, the mechanism for funneling money to the states and cities would be an increase in federal funding of state Medicaid programs. Those states hardest hit economically would receive more proportionally than those relatively better off.
Whatever the amounts, the federal subsidies would free up money the states currently must put into Medicaid. States might divert that money to cities, for example, to pay teachers and vendors, or it might be used to quickly resume public works projects shut down for lack of funding.
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate, now supports a stimulus plan similar to the one the Congressional Democratic leadership is seriously considering. ''Mr. Obama has been calling for six months for a demand-side fiscal stimulus,'' said Jason Furman, the candidate's economic policy director.
Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, is less enthusiastic. His campaign prefers, as a stimulus, making President Bush's tax cuts permanent and lowering corporate tax rates. But the McCain camp does not reject out of hand the Democratic proposal now taking shape.
''Nothing is off the table,'' said Mark Zandi, a McCain economic adviser and the chief economist at Moody'sEconomy.com. ''That includes all the various stimulus tools that might be used, given the severity of the crisis.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: ''We have to prop up consumption,'' said Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.(PHOTOGRAPH BY BILL GREENE/THE BOSTON GLOBE, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS)(pg. B7)
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The New York Times
October 10, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Obama, Purse Swelling, Plans Half-Hour TV Ad
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG and BRIAN STELTER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 24
LENGTH: 481 words
Senator Barack Obama has become the first presidential candidate in 16 years to buy a half-hour of prime time network television for a campaign infomercial.
Officials at the Obama campaign and at several television networks said Thursday that Mr. Obama had completed deals to show a half-hour program about his candidacy on CBS and NBC on Wednesday, Oct. 29, less than a week before Election Day. The campaign is also talking to ABC and Fox about similar deals, though the potential of a World Series Game 6 may make that impossible on Fox.
It was an extraordinary move illustrating the spending flexibility Mr. Obama enjoys as his campaign raises huge sums outside of the restrictive campaign finance system, which imposes spending limits in return for matching federal money.
As a participant in the system, which caps total general election spending at $84 million, Senator John McCain would have a hard time matching Mr. Obama's move, though there were indications Thursday that his team had at least looked into prices.
The Obama program -- the content of which has not been disclosed -- is scheduled to run at 8 p.m. in the time slots of ''The New Adventures of Old Christine'' on CBS and the first half of the new version of ''Knight Rider'' on NBC.
Neither network officials nor Obama campaign aides would discuss the cost of the television time. An analysis of advertising rates shows that the price of the commercial time alone between 8 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. on a Wednesday night would be about $1 million. It was unclear whether the networks were charging the campaign for only that commercial time or for the entire half hour, which would cost significantly more.
The news of Mr. Obama's planned television special was first reported Thursday by the Web site of The Hollywood Reporter.
''It feels very old-fashioned, very 1960 or something,'' said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist. ''But the truth is there will be a certain universe of voters, disproportionately female, who are undecided and late checking in, who will be aggressively seeking information at that point.''
Half-hour commercials were far more common during the early days of television.
John F. Kennedy presented a half-hour commercial that featured parts of his speech in Houston about his religion. Richard M. Nixon bought two hours of time on election eve in 1968, at a cost of $400,000. The outsider candidate Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr. ran a half-hour prime time telecast on CBS in 1984, using the program to call the Democratic nominee, Walter F. Mondale, ''an agent of influence'' of the Soviet intelligence services. (Federal communications rules prohibit networks from censoring the content of candidates' advertisements.)
The last candidate to use the format was Ross Perot, in 1992, when he used the time to detail his plan to cut the deficit before an audience of 16.5 million people.
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The New York Times
October 10, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Obama Attacks McCain's Mortgage Plan
BYLINE: By MICHAEL FALCONE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 24
LENGTH: 454 words
This 30-second advertisement for Senator Barack Obama will be shown across the nation on national cable television, according to the campaign. It is titled ''Tested.''
PRODUCER Obama campaign media team
THE SCRIPT A narrator says: ''In a time of crisis, our leaders' judgment is tested. On Tuesday, an announcement.'' Senator John McCain: ''I would order the secretary of the Treasury to immediately buy up the bad home loan mortgages in America.'' The narrator: ''On Wednesday, the details. McCain would shift the burden from lenders to taxpayers guaranteeing a loss of taxpayer money. Who wins? The same lenders that caused the crisis in the first place. Putting bad actors ahead of taxpayers? We can't afford more of the same.''
ON THE SCREEN The advertisement opens with still images: a foreclosed home with a ''For Sale'' sign, a worried stock trader, the Capitol. Then a clip of Mr. McCain's announcing of his home mortgage plan at the debate Tuesday. The narrator says the plan would ''shift the burden from lenders to taxpayers'' as a graphic of a CNN Money.com article that reaches a similar conclusion appears on the screen. The advertisement ends with images of a street sign on Wall Street, followed by a photograph of Mr. McCain with President Bush.
ACCURACY Even Mr. McCain's economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, conceded that the plan would place a burden on taxpayers. Under the proposal, the government could buy the home loans of Americans who are at risk of defaulting (or are already delinquent) and allow them to obtain new mortgages at more favorable rates. Taxpayers would be responsible for the difference in value between the old and new mortgages. It is very likely the McCain plan would result in ''a loss of taxpayer money,'' as the message says.
While the advertisement portrays lenders as the winners in this arrangement, it fails to acknowledge the potential benefits to homeowners, namely more affordable mortgages. Mr. Holtz-Eakin has also noted that stabilizing home values would speed economic recovery. The commercial does not mention the fact that legislation, including the $700 billion bailout bill that Congress and the president approved last week, paved the way for the plan that Mr. McCain proposed. Both Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama supported the bill.
SCORECARD With millions of Americans at risk of foreclosure, Mr. Obama has seized on Mr. McCain's mortgage proposal as a way to question his judgment on economic issues. While the advertisement glosses over the critical point of the McCain plan -- that it is meant to be a lifeline for homeowners before they slide into foreclosure -- it makes some valid points about the new liabilities taxpayers would face. MICHAEL FALCONE
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USA TODAY
October 10, 2008 Friday
FINAL EDITION
Obama ready for prime time in long ads;
Nominee plans 30-minute spots on CBS, NBC and Fox
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 393 words
WASHINGTON -- Democrat Barack Obama's campaign said Thursday that he is planning a half-hour prime-time ad on network TV on Oct. 29 to promote his presidential bid.
Spokesman Bill Burton said the campaign has bought time on CBS and NBC, plus on Fox if it is not airing a World Series baseball game. He said the Democratic nominee, who has been outspending Republican rival John McCain on TV ads, is also talking to other networks about buying 30 minutes of prime time.
Burton would not comment on what Obama would discuss. McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds declined to outline his candidate's ad strategy, but he joked Obama's move "officially marks the end of reality TV."
Campaign commercials are usually 30-second spots, but Obama has done some two-minute ads. In 1992, independent Ross Perot bought 30 minutes in prime time to make his case for the White House.
Obama's prime-time buy comes as McCain continued to emphasize Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers, a 1960s radical tied to the bombings of the Weather Underground. McCain told Wisconsin supporters that "we need to know the full extent of the relationship" between the two men, who served together on a Chicago foundation board.
Obama has emphasized that he was a child at the time of the bombings. Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said McCain "would rather launch angry, personal attacks than talk about the economy."
The candidates maneuvered as a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll showed that viewers of the second presidential debate have more confidence that Obama can handle the economy. By a more than a 2-to-1 ratio, however, debate viewers have less confidence that McCain can deal with the nation's economic problems.
The poll of 735 debate viewers Wednesday, a day after the candidates faced off in Nashville, also showed the debate helped boost confidence in Obama's ability to address defense and foreign policy issues, 33% vs. 27%. McCain, meanwhile, lost ground: 30% now have less confidence in him to handle these issues, which are usually a strong point for the former Navy pilot.
Bounds said it is more important to contrast between McCain's "record of reforming government" and Obama's "partisanship and failed judgment." Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said the poll shows Obama offers "presidential leadership that provides real solutions."
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
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The Washington Post
October 10, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
Candidates Spar Over McCain Plan for Loans;
Proposal Introduced In Second Debate
BYLINE: Robert Barnes and Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 1023 words
DATELINE: PORTSMOUTH, Ohio, Oct. 9
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday said rival John McCain's mortgage rescue plan "punishes" taxpayers and rewards lending institutions that created the crisis, while McCain charged that his opponent's response showed a lack of concern for homeowners.
The mortgage proposal became the latest point of strife between two campaigns that have tried to turn discussions about the economic crisis into questions about their opponent's fitness for office. Echoing a theme of the past several days, McCain said Obama's moves have shown a lack of judgment, while the senator from Illinois continued to cast his opponent's reactions as uneven and rash.
On a day when some conservatives also critiqued McCain's proposal, Obama used the "risky idea" as a way to describe McCain as a desperate candidate "lurching" from idea to idea as he tries to find an answer to the economic crisis that has roiled the presidential campaign.
"His first response to the housing crisis in March was that homeowners shouldn't get any help at all," Obama told a crowd at a minor-league baseball park in Dayton, part of a two-day swing through the battleground state of Ohio.
"Then a few weeks ago, he put out a plan that basically ignored homeowners. Now, in the course of 12 hours, he's ended up with a plan that punishes taxpayers, rewards banks and won't solve our housing crisis."
During the presidential debate Tuesday night, McCain proposed having the government buy and refinance troubled home loans. On Wednesday, his campaign said that the Treasury Department would buy the bad mortgages at face value even though home prices may have dropped below the value of the mortgages. Taxpayers would make up the shortfall.
McCain aides said that structure is necessary to make the plan work, and at town hall meeting in Wisconsin, the senator from Arizona and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, slammed Obama for not supporting the proposal.
"He's opposed to us helping the homeowners of America," McCain said. "Do you want to help the homeowners of America, or do you want to help Wall Street? That's the question here."
Obama agreed on the question, just not the answer.
"Banks wouldn't take a loss, but taxpayers would take a loss," he said. "It's a plan that would guarantee that you, the American taxpayers, would lose by handing over $300 billion to underwrite the kind of greed and irresponsibility on Wall Street that got us into this mess."
Obama aides were delighted to send out copies of a critique of the plan from editors of the conservative National Review that said "McCain's plan would also be a gift to lenders who abandoned any sense of prudence during the boom years." And the Obama campaign quickly cobbled together a television ad that said McCain was "putting bad actors ahead of taxpayers. We can't afford more of the same."
Speaking at an evening rally at Shawnee State University, Obama said: "Today, millions of Americans lost more of their investments and hard-earned retirement savings as the stock market took another significant plunge. Now, it is critical that the Treasury Department move as quickly as possible to implement the rescue plan that passed Congress so we can ease this credit crisis that's preventing businesses large and small from getting the loans they need. It's causing instability in our market. Understand, this is not just an issue for big businesses or banks in New York."
On Thursday, the stock market lost nearly 700 points and dropped below 9,000 for the first time in five years. Neither McCain or Palin mentioned the stock market on the campaign trail, and their campaign did not release a comment on it.
For several weeks, McCain's campaign has become more aggressive in painting Obama as dangerous, using the word in advertisements and on the stump. The idea, aides said, is to raise fundamental questions about Obama's ability to lead the nation.
On foreign policy, they question his judgment for opposing the "surge" strategy in Iraq. On the economy, they accuse him of being a "co-conspirator" with those who caused the crisis.
At the town hall meeting, McCain charged that Obama "did not lift a finger" to stop the accumulation of bad debts by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac despite what McCain said were Obama's associations with top officials of the organizations.
More than that, McCain essentially calls Obama a liar, a man whose background is one of shifting positions, inflated claims and questionable behavior. His campaign has repeatedly attacked Obama in the past week for his relationship with William Ayers, who was part of a domestic terrorist group during the Vietnam War.
In Strongsville, Ohio, on Wednesday night, Palin criticized Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., as looking backward in an attempt to assign blame. When McCain took the microphone, he did just that.
He said Obama has neither told the truth about what he has done nor answered critics. Instead, McCain said, Obama has challenged his credibility. "Let me reply in the plainest terms I know," he said. "I don't need lessons about telling the truth to the American people. If I ever needed an improvement in that regard, I probably wouldn't seek the advice of a Chicago politician."
Obama has also continually couched the argument in terms of whether McCain can be counted on to be stable in a crisis. In recent days, Obama and his surrogates have emphasized words such as "lurching" and "erratic" to describe the Republican, while a campaign ad also accuses McCain of being "erratic."
"This is the kind of erratic behavior we've been seeing out of Senator McCain," Obama said in Dayton. "You remember the first day of this crisis, he came out and said the economy was fundamentally sound. Then two hours later, he said we were in a crisis.
"I don't think we can afford that kind of erratic and uncertain leadership in these uncertain times. We need steady leadership in the White House. We need a president we can trust in times of crisis. And that's why I'm running for president of the United States of America."
Staff writer Dan Balz in Dayton, Ohio, contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 10, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jim Young -- Reuters; Sen. Barack Obama greets supporters during a rally at Ault Park in Cincinnati. In Dayton, he accused Sen. John McCain of "erratic and uncertain leadership."
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The Washington Post
October 10, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Obama & Friends: Judge Not?
BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 771 words
Convicted felon Tony Rezko. Unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers. And the race-baiting Rev. Jeremiah Wright. It is hard to think of any presidential candidate before Barack Obama sporting associations with three more execrable characters. Yet let the McCain campaign raise the issue, and the mainstream media begin fulminating about dirty campaigning tinged with racism and McCarthyite guilt by association.
But associations are important. They provide a significant insight into character. They are particularly relevant in relation to a potential president as new, unknown, opaque and self-contained as Obama. With the economy overshadowing everything, it may be too late politically to be raising this issue. But that does not make it, as conventional wisdom holds, in any way illegitimate.
McCain has only himself to blame for the bad timing. He should months ago have begun challenging Obama's associations, before the economic meltdown allowed the Obama campaign (and the mainstream media, which is to say the same thing) to dismiss the charges as an act of desperation by the trailing candidate.
McCain had his chance back in April when the North Carolina Republican Party ran a gubernatorial campaign ad that included the linking of Obama with Jeremiah Wright. The ad was duly denounced by the New York Times and other deep thinkers as racist.
This was patently absurd. Racism is treating people differently and invidiously on the basis of race. Had any white presidential candidate had a close 20-year association with a white preacher overtly spreading race hatred from the pulpit, that candidate would have been not just universally denounced and deemed unfit for office but written out of polite society entirely.
Nonetheless, John McCain in his infinite wisdom, and with his overflowing sense of personal rectitude, joined the braying mob in denouncing that perfectly legitimate ad, saying it had no place in any campaign. In doing so, McCain unilaterally disarmed himself, rendering off-limits Obama's associations, an issue that even Hillary Clinton addressed more than once.
Obama's political career was launched with Ayers giving him a fundraiser in his living room. If a Republican candidate had launched his political career at the home of an abortion-clinic bomber -- even a repentant one -- he would not have been able to run for dogcatcher in Podunk. And Ayers shows no remorse. His only regret is that he "didn't do enough."
Why are these associations important? Do I think Obama is as corrupt as Rezko? Or shares Wright's angry racism or Ayers's unreconstructed 1960s radicalism?
No. But that does not make these associations irrelevant. They tell us two important things about Obama.
First, his cynicism and ruthlessness. He found these men useful, and use them he did. Would you attend a church whose pastor was spreading racial animosity from the pulpit? Would you even shake hands with -- let alone serve on two boards with -- an unrepentant terrorist, whether he bombed U.S. military installations or abortion clinics?
Most Americans would not, on the grounds of sheer indecency. Yet Obama did, if not out of conviction then out of expediency. He was a young man on the make, an unknown outsider working his way into Chicago politics. He played the game with everyone, without qualms and with obvious success.
Obama is not the first politician to rise through a corrupt political machine. But he is one of the rare few to then have the audacity to present himself as a transcendent healer, hovering above and bringing redemption to the "old politics" -- of the kind he had enthusiastically embraced in Chicago in the service of his own ambition.
Second, and even more disturbing than the cynicism, is the window these associations give on Obama's core beliefs. He doesn't share the Rev. Wright's poisonous views of race nor Ayers's views, past and present, about the evil that is American society. But Obama clearly did not consider these views beyond the pale. For many years he swam easily and without protest in that fetid pond.
Until now. Today, on the threshold of the presidency, Obama concedes the odiousness of these associations, which is why he has severed them. But for the years in which he sat in Wright's pews and shared common purpose on boards with Ayers, Obama considered them a legitimate, indeed unremarkable, part of social discourse.
Do you? Obama is a man of first-class intellect and first-class temperament. But his character remains highly suspect. There is a difference between temperament and character. Equanimity is a virtue. Tolerance of the obscene is not.
letters@charleskrauthammer.com
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Suburban Edition
Obama Hits McCain on Mortgages
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THE AD
Narrator: In a time of crisis, our leaders' judgment is tested. On Tuesday, an announcement.
McCain: I would order the secretary of the Treasury to immediately buy up the bad home loan mortgages in America.
Narrator: On Wednesday, the details. McCain would shift the burden from lenders to taxpayers, guaranteeing a loss of taxpayer money. Who wins? The same lenders that caused the crisis in the first place. Putting bad actors ahead of taxpayers? We can't afford more of the same.
ANALYSIS
This Barack Obama ad again tries to tie John McCain to the mess on Wall Street, this time by using his own words at Tuesday's presidential debate. The $300 billion plan, which would be funded under existing legislation, has drawn criticism from across the political spectrum.
The ad shows an article from CNNMoney.com that says "McCain mortgage plan shifts costs to taxpayers." Aides to the senator from Arizona don't deny this, saying that the effort is justified because of the magnitude of the banking crisis and the need to stabilize the housing market.
Media reports have criticized the plan from the left and the right, saying that it would lower rescue standards to the point that lenders would reap a windfall -- and irresponsible homeowners would be bailed out. In that sense, it is accurate to say "the lenders that caused the crisis" would benefit.
What the spot doesn't mention is that Obama voted for the $700 billion federal bailout, which, with stricter standards, would also aid lenders by buying up distressed mortgages. The senator from Illinois, whose aides have decided the ailing economy is the overriding issue, has hammered McCain on the subject in recent ads. The "more of the same" line, along with an obligatory shot of McCain with President Bush, has become a signature element.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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The Trail
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OBAMA'S PAST
McCain Co-Chair Presses Drug Use
Former Oklahoma governor Frank Keating, a co-chair of John McCain's presidential campaign, called Barack Obama "very extreme" on a radio show Thursday and raised the issue of Obama's past drug use.
"He ought to admit, 'You know, I've got to be honest with you. I was a guy of the street,' " Keating said. " 'I was way to the left. I used cocaine. I voted liberally, but I'm back at the center.' " Keating made the comments on the radio show of comedian Dennis Miller.
Miller, a conservative, offered a long critique of Obama, calling him "the most liberal guy" and saying that the "obfuscation" and "smoke and mirrors" surrounding his campaign were "Clintonesque."
Miller did correct Keating on the accusation that Obama was hiding his drug use.
"Wait, I've got to jump in, Frank. He has copped to the blow use, right?" Miller said, referring to Obama's admission of cocaine use in his autobiography. "I mean, he did so in his own book; he said he did blow."
"Oh, yes, he did," Keating said.
In 1999, Keating was quick to weigh in on rumors about George W. Bush's alleged drug use as a young man. The former FBI agent did himself some real damage with the Bush campaign when he told an interviewer that Bush should answer questions "about private conduct."
-- Robert Barnes
WEATHER UNDERGROUND
RNC Ads to Link Obama to Radical
The Republican National Committee is launching television ads Friday in Indiana and Wisconsin that invoke the name of former Weather Underground member William Ayers and detail his ties to Barack Obama, the first such ads from either the national party committee or the campaign of John McCain so far.
"Senator Obama is crying foul and declaring his association with such individuals to be off limits," said Brad Todd, who is overseeing the RNC's independent expenditure arm. "Fortunately, with the First Amendment still intact, he does not get to decide that."
The RNC ad is the latest -- and most serious -- attempt by Republicans to make Obama's association with Ayers an issue in the campaign.
-- Chris Cillizza
A SHOW OF FUNDRAISING FORCE
Obama Buys Chunks of Prime Time
Barack Obama's campaign said it had purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS and NBC for prime-time political infomercials to air Oct. 29, and it is reportedly looking to make similar buys on other networks.
The network buys -- which could cost the campaign around $2 million each -- underscore Obama's massive fundraising advantage over John McCain.
Coming just six days before the election, Obama's prime-time ads could put pressure on McCain to respond with a similar national message. But McCain's resources are limited; he agreed to accept federal matching funds that limit his campaign to $84 million in September and October -- though the Republican National Committee is helping out.
But both Obama and McCain have run national ads during this campaign, most notably during NBC's telecast of the Summer Olympics.
-- Paul Farhi
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Washingtonpost.com
October 10, 2008 Friday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Ben Pershing, Washingtonpost.com Congressional Blogger, washingtonpost.com
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HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Ben Pershing, washingtonpost.com congressional blogger, was online Friday, Oct. 10 at 11 a.m. ET to take your questions about the latest political news.
The transcript follows.
Read the latest post from Capitol Briefing, and also see Pershing's election analysis at The Post's new Political Browser, a collection of the biggest and best campaign stories of the day from across the Web.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Ben Pershing: Good morning. Three and a half weeks to the election and the economy continues to tank (fortunately, I shifted all my money into Alpacas last week). So there's lots to talk about. Let's get started.
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State College, Pa.: Hi Ben. The way these campaigns are going, it seems to me that whoever loses this election is not going to be very happy about working with the other party in Congress. My sense is that McCain will be less willing to go across party lines, given the emnity that he appears to have for Obama. Any comments from your perspective?
Ben Pershing: Not sure if I agree with you. It's true that McCain seems to dislike Obama on some level, but if he wins it won't really be Obama he's working with (Obama's not in leadership). Democrats will be in charge, likely with larger majorities, no matter who wins the White House. So McCain would have to work with them, and he does have a record in the past of reaching across the aisle in the Senate. Just don't expect him to invite Obama over very much. If Obama wins, it will be interesting to see if he tries to be "above politics" by reaching out to work with McCain.
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Washington: I'm hearing that things are getting increasingly ugly at McCain/Palin rallies, and there was a good article in The Post yesterday about the anger that is being stoked. Do you think McCain has a responsibility to intercede when people are yelling out things like "terrorist" and "kill him" about Obama at his rallies? At the very least, the Secret Service is there and should be making arrests when someone threatens a candidate. I'm getting increasingly worried that McCain is getting caught up in the anger and it's going to come to a tragic ending, either during the campaign or after an inauguration.
washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: McCain Campaign's Angry Audience (washingtonpost.com, 3 p.m. ET today)
Ben Pershing: That's a good point about the Secret Service, but the protective detail at a McCain/Palin rally is focused on protecting those two candidates who are present. They probably have neither the time nor the manpower to police the audience for nasty comments. But if someone in the audience makes a really obvious threat against Obama and the Secret Service does hear it, I assume they would act.
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Yonkers, N.Y.: Not that it means anything, but I can't ever remember a candidate sending his wife out to do attack speeches. Cindy McCain is telling audiences that Obama voted to deprive her son of equipment in Iraq (so did her husband for that matter, if that's your standard of truth). What's going on here? She's trying to become first lady; she's not Palin. How weird is this getting?
Ben Pershing: It is unusual. Usually First Ladies and candidates for First Lady are used to fire up their own party and reach out to specific constituencies (i.e. women). I can't remember specific examples of this happening before, but I might be wrong. If any of you can remember this happening in past elections, pass those examples along.
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Chicago: Thanks for taking my question. Can you give those of us who live in the 38 nonbattleground states an idea of what TV and radio advertising in the battleground states is like? How many ads are people seeing? Is Obama clearly advertising a lot more than McCain, given that he appears to have a lot more money? On a somewhat related vein, what's the scuttlebutt on how much Obama raised in September? If he is buying half-hour time slots on primetime TV, it must be north of $100 million.
Ben Pershing: I live in D.C., so the ads I see are different and less frequent than the ones people in, say, Ohio would see. There's no question that Obama is outspending McCain by a wide margin. I read recently that he spent $3 million in ads on a single day, which McCain can't possibly match. I won't hazard a specific guess on what Obama raised in September, other than I'm sure it was more than $70 million. He's raising more than $70 million per month, and McCain got $84 million in public money to cover the entire period from Sept. 1 to Nov. 4.
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Hamilton, Bermuda: What is going on in West Virginia? Obama got blown out by Hillary by what, 41 percent? But a recent poll has Obama up 8 percentage points, and all the maps on all those sites that show you what people think is going on in the electoral college show West Virginia getting lighter and lighter pink (or even white). Is the economic meltdown causing the poor or blue-collar voters in West Virginia to come home to the Democrats?
Ben Pershing: I think you answered your own question. West Virginia is not naturally good turf for Obama -- lots of blue collar, culturally conservative workers. But the economy is really hitting him there as an issue, as it is everywhere. And so more voters there seem to be tipping toward Obama.
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Atlanta: Do you think changes in the electoral map in 2010 will allow whichever party does not win a way to unseat the president (i.e., more and more votes are coming to the south from states like New York and California). Kinda how perhaps Clinton won in 1992?
Ben Pershing: Redistricting will have an interesting impact on the 2012 race. It is likely that states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest -- New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio especially -- will lose electoral votes, and states in the south and the Sun Belt will gain. California likely will not lose any votes and might even gain. In general, these are votes that will shift from Dem-leaning states to GOP ones, but it's tough to say for sure. After all, Obama is leading in Virginia and may win Florida and North Carolina too.
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Evanston, Ill.: Good morning and thanks for chatting. I assume you saw that utterly bizarre press briefing where Sen. Coleman's press secretary (?) was asked repeatedly whether Sen. Coleman ever received suits from a contributory/supporter and he just kept saying over and over "Sen. Coleman has reported all gifts he has received." Well what's the straight dope? Did Coleman get some suits? Did he violate any rules/laws by getting them and apparently not reporting them? How is "suitgate" impacting his campaign? On top of his sweetheart apartment deal in Washington, I'd think this is pretty damaging stuff. Any chance he actually could finish third?
washingtonpost.com: Senator Norm Coleman Gets by with a Little Help From His Friends (Harper's Magazine, Oct. 6)
Ben Pershing: This is a fascinating story. Basically, Coleman is accused of getting lots of free, fancy suits from a donor, and he hasn't given a straight answer to questions about it other than to attack the media and bloggers. I really like this story because it reminds me of legendary ex-Sen. Robert Torricelli, who was accused of the exact same thing. I look for any excuse to relive "the Torch" scandals.
I don't know about Coleman actually finishing third behind Al Franken and Alben Barkley, but I do know that he is in serious danger right now.
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Naperville, Ill.: I assume you have sources on both sides of the aisle in Congress. What are they saying about how bad the GOP bloodbath in both houses of Congress will be? What are the odds the Democrats pick up 10 Senate seats?
Ben Pershing: I think a 10-seat pickup in the Senate would be difficult, even in this strong environment for Democrats. But it's definitely possible, which is amazing. "The Fix" wrote this morning that there are eight seats that Democrats have an even-money or better shot to pick up. To get two more would basically mean running the table. As for the House, a gain of 20+ seats looks increasingly likely and 30 is now a distinct possibility.
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Southwest Nebraska: The Republicans surrounding me are enormously buoyed by the ACORN voter registration problems in Ohio. How is that going to get resolved, and will there be blowback on Obama's campaign?
Ben Pershing: ACORN's problems are definitely getting some attention, but it's tough to see those stories breaking through given that there's so much election news AND a ton of important economic news. The question is whether there really are a lot of Democrats who end up being unable to vote on Election Day. With millions of voters in Ohio, it seems unlikely there will be enough voter registrations thrown off the rolls to make a difference.
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washingtonpost.com: The Fix's Friday Line: Sixty in Sight? (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 10)
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Gettysburg, Pa.: Do you see the Obama's connection with Ayers or Rev. Wright coming up at the next debate? Do you think the moderator will ask Obama about it? If so, will he ask an equivalent question to McCain about Keating or someone? If the moderator does not bring it up, do you see McCain doing so on his own? Isn't it tough to sling mud when the target is standing right next to you? I remember that one debate between Hillary and Barack where they had one or two exchanges like that, and they both seemed to pull back instinctively, realizing that they were going somewhere neither wanted to go.
Ben Pershing: Everyone was waiting for McCain to bring up Ayers at the last debate, and he didn't do it. Either that was because they thought the town hall setting was the wrong one for that kind of attack, or because they thought McCain himself shouldn't do it (and that's why Palin has been so aggressive on the issue). But McCain is in trouble now and he may just decide to go for broke in the third debate. I think he'd still prefer not to do it himself, but he may not have a choice.
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Monmouth, Ore.: A lot is being written about this election possibly being a Democratic congressional landslide. If many of these endangered Republicans lose in places like New Yrok, Minnesota, Oregon and Pennsylvania, won't the Republicans become a de facto "Southern" party? If that happens, will the few remaining Northern, moderate Republicans such as Snowe, Specter, and Gregg consider jumping ship to the Democrats, where they would seem to have more in common with people like Webb, Warner, Baucus, etc.? It seems no party makes it on such a narrow regional base. Thanks.
Ben Pershing: The demise of Republicans in the Northeast has been pretty stunning. In the House, there is only one Republican left in all of New England. Out of 29 House seats in New York state, only 6 are Republicans and 4 of them might lose. It will be tough in the long-term for Republicans to regain the majority with almost no presence in the Northeast. The Senate is a little different -- Snowe is still very popular in Maine. It's hard to see any of those Senate Republicans switching parties, but they're going to get more and more lonely.
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washingtonpost.com: Across the Northeast, GOP's Hold Lessens (Post, Aug. 18)
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Washington: Is Dean Barkley any relation to the late vice president in the Truman Administration, Alben Barkley -- the one who married a young chick and died saying "I'd rather be a servant in the house of the Lord..."?
Ben Pershing: No, they're not related. And good catch -- I wrote "Alben Barkley" in my earlier answer about the Minnesota Senate race, when I meant to say Dean. Obviously, I need more coffee.
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Alexandria, Va.: Good morning, Ben. How does the McCain camp's decision to pull out of Michigan affect Reps. Walberg and Knollenberg's re-election campaigns?
Ben Pershing: Good question. Both Knollenberg and Walberg were not happy at all at the McCain campaign's decision. Both of them already faced tough races, and now they're in serious danger of losing. The economic problems in Michigan -- just look at the headlines about GM today -- make it very tough for Republicans in that state.
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Pennsylvania: To Chicago: We've been getting so many political commercials on TV -- not only for president but also for congressional seats already -- that I automatically hit the mute button during commercial breaks, now even for the ads from the candidates I favor as well as those I oppose. If only our local NPR station weren't in pledge right now (though at least they're not sleazy!)...
Ben Pershing: I suspect a lot of swing-state residents feel the way you do. Which raises an interesting question: At what point does a candidate's advertising dollar start to lose its value? Obama can run a gazillion more ads, but if viewers are sick of them and changing the channel, they will be gradually less effective.
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Baltimore: You mention that McCain has a history of reaching across the aisle in the Senate, but what isn't mentioned is that he's got a history of not getting along with the House -- either the Republicans or the Democrats. For example, he was completely unable to budge the House Republicans the first time the bailout bill came up. Appointments only have to pass the Senate, but budgets and legislation need both houses of Congress. Will McCain be able to get anything through?
Ben Pershing: It's true that he has a longer history of cutting deals in the Senate than in the House. McCain's problem is that House Republicans on the whole are more conservative than Senate Republicans. The majority of House GOPers disagreed with McCain on campaign finance reform and immigration, two of his big issues. The one place they really agree is on spending and earmark reform, so they would probably be able to cooperate on those issues, at least.
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Alexandria, Va.: What's your take on Sen. Stevens's trial so far? Also, if he is convicted and drops out of the Senate race, do Alaskan Republicans have any options to replace him, or is it too late? Thanks.
Ben Pershing: The Stevens trial has been fascinating to watch from afar, and I'm only sorry I haven't been able to attend in person. I know fellow reporters who have been covering it who think that there is at least a chance that Stevens will be acquitted. There's no question he got a lot of stuff he didn't pay for, but has the prosecution proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he knew he was getting more than he paid for? My understanding is that it's too late to replace Stevens on the ballot before Election Day, unless there's some legal trick the GOP could pull.
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Palin Ethics Report: Washingtonpost.com has a link labeled "Palin Ethics Report Set to be Released," but the headline on the linked story said it is "secret for now," and mentions no time or date for release. Which is it?
washingtonpost.com:"At their meeting Friday, lawmakers planned to vote to release the estimated 300-page report and some of the 1,000 or more pages of supporting documents." Sensitive Palin ethics report kept secret, for now (Associated Press, Oct. 10)
Ben Pershing: Alaska legislators are voting today on whether to release their report on Palin and Troopergate. The McCain campaign this morning decided to release its own "report" saying that she did nothing wrong. Which was kind of funny. As I wrote on Political Browser this morning, maybe Ted Stevens will acquit himself today.
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Chattanooga, Tenn.: When is Bush going to learn to shut his yap? He goes on TV and the market gives up it's mini-rally and tanks again. Wouldn't we (and he) be better off if he just stayed out of sight on his bicycle?
Ben Pershing: Bush has gone on TV almost every day since this crisis began, and it hasn't exactly calmed the markets, has it? There's an argument to be made that the clout and importance that go with a presidential appearance are lessened if the president appears every single day.
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Reston, Va.: McCain seems to be running out of time to pull this thing out. My question is, given the way people are fed up with politics, why doesn't he announce a pledge that he and Palin would only serve one term if elected (because America doesn't need a president running for re-election two years down the road) and talk up the virtue of divided government (given that Democrats are going to be in charge of Congress, and that divided government worked under Reagan and Clinton)?
Ben Pershing: That issue came up during the primaries, I believe, and McCain wouldn't commit to only serving one term. And why would he? He's making the case that he should be president, so why say he'd only serve four years?
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Minneapolis: Hi Ben -- thank you for taking questions today. There seems to be a general consensus that, other than to whipping up the base, McCain/Palin's attacks on Obama's associations don't seem to be changing the direction of the race at this point. Is there any polling yet to support that? Also, if it isn't working, will McCain drop that line of attack and try something else, or is that all he has now?
Ben Pershing: It's true that there's no evidence yet that the negative stuff is working, but that doesn't mean it won't work eventually. Right now all the polling shows that voters are fixated on the economy, and they give Obama the edge on that issue. The McCain campaign feels that the only way it can win is to plant more seeds of doubt about Obama's character and suitability for the presidency. I doubt they'll stop doing that.
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Washington: During the debate, Sen. McCain mentioned a letter he and other senators had signed on the economic situation, noting that Sen. Obama had not signed it. Do we know what letter he was talking about and why Sen. Obama didn't sign it?
Ben Pershing: Another good question. The good folks at ProPublica wrote a story about this yesterday, saying that they could not find any such letter signed by McCain warning about the economic crisis. And more interestingly, the McCain campaign wouldn't comment or say what letter he was talking about. Was McCain confused? Or was it a bill or a report he was referring to, rather than a letter?
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washingtonpost.com: What Letter Was McCain Referring to? (ProPublica, Oct. 9)
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Krauthammer's op-ed: He made a point that any white politian would be cast out of society if they had long-standing relationships with a fiery white preacher delivering sermons that could be considered hateful. Where would a Rev. Hagee fit into this picture? He's said some hateful things (not even getting into his "Support Israel to hasten the Apocalypse" agenda), and that hasn't stopped many a white politician -- including McCain -- from embracing his supports. Is there really a double standard here? The white Christian religious community is full of divisive hate-mongerers, but because they preach to a majority who like the message, it's okay?
washingtonpost.com: Obama and Friends: Judge Not? (Post, Oct. 10)
Ben Pershing: I have definitely heard McCain supporters complain that Obama is getting a relatively easy ride from the media on the Ayers story. I have not heard many people argue that Obama's getting it easy because he's black. Obviously, that's Krauthammer's opinion. But as you say, there are several controversial people McCain has been linked to at some point or another in the past too, and the press hasn't been overly focused on that either (except for a blip of attention on the Keating 5 scandal).
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Bethesda, Md.: Once people decide who they are voting for do they generally stick to that? What I am trying to say is that the number of undecideds has to be shrinking every day.
Ben Pershing: Yes, the number of undecideds naturally shrinks every day until Election Day. What pollsters and experts can't always agree on is how many undecideds there are at any given time. When you see a topline poll number that says, for example, Obama leads McCain 48-42, those numbers typically include both people who say they are definitely voting for one candidate and those who say they are "leaning" toward one candidate. But what does "leaning" mean? 90 percent sure? 51 percent sure? Answer that and you could make a lot of money working in politics.
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Ads in Iowa: Inexplicably, Sen. McCain continues to run lots of ads here. Just this morning while watching the morning news shows, I saw three of the black-and-white multiscreen ads showing Obama and Pelosi and Barney Frank with a whispery voice talking about "danger" and "who is Barack Obama?" Yet the local news channel airing the ads reported on their new poll showing Obama up 54-41 over McCain in Iowa.
Ben Pershing: I'm not sure why McCain would pull out of Michigan but keep running ads in Iowa, since as you say, the state appears to be heavily tilted to Obama now. My guess is that running ads in Iowa is relatively cheap, so it's not a huge deal to stay on the air, whereas Michigan is more expensive.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: I've heard some people talking about the polls being wrong because people would lie to pollsters about voting for a black person when they wouldn't really. If that were the case, wouldn't the robo-dialers be showing very different numbers?
Ben Pershing: You raise a very good point. There have been lots of stories recently about "the Bradley effect," named after former LA Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost a gubernatorial race he was favored to win. It MAY be true that some voters lie to pollsters, saying they'll vote for black candidates even if they won't. And I have also read interesting analyses arguing that respondents are more honest when they're talking to a computer, or automated poll, than a live person. But there's almost no way to know for sure.
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Ben Pershing: Thanks as always for the great questions everyone. Let's chat again next week.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
October 9, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
INSIDE THE TIMES: October 9, 2008
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International
WITH TRADITIONAL STIGMAS WANING,
Adoptions Increase in South Korea
With a traditional emphasis on family bloodlines, South Koreans have long been reluctant to adopt. As a result, since the 1950s tens of thousands of South Korean children have been adopted by foreigners, mostly Americans. But the government is pushing aggressively to increase domestic adoptions in South Korea and last year, for the first time, more babies there were adopted by South Koreans than by foreigners. The country has set a goal of eliminating foreign adoptions altogether by 2012. PAGE A6
BRIEFING IN PAKISTAN ON TERRORISM
In an extraordinary step in Pakistan, the military gave a classified briefing to Parliament about its efforts to combat terrorism. Although many parliamentarians said the briefing was focused too narrowly on military operations rather than the strategic issues facing the country, the ruling party's members hailed it as historic, and some analysts saw it as a first step in evolving a grand national strategy against terrorism. PAGE A13
NEW BLAST ON TARGETED IRAQI STREET
A suicide bomber blew herself up in the provincial capital of Diyala Province, killing 10 people on a street that has already been attacked by suicide bombers at least 16 times in the last five years. The street, lined by a number of government buildings, has become known as the ''street of suicide bombers and car bombers'' because there have been so many explosions there. PAGE A13
KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE SCRUTINIZED
Serbia won its bid in a sharply polarized vote in the United Nations General Assembly to have the International Court of Justice review the manner in which Kosovo declared its independence last February. Addressing the General Assembly before the vote, the Serbian foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, said the court review would ''serve to reduce tensions in the region and facilitate our efforts at reconciliation.'' PAGE A10
A CALL FOR TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates called on America's allies in southeastern Europe, a group of countries that includes Italy, Turkey, Ukraine, Romania and Macedonia, to expand their troop commitments to Afghanistan, where NATO is struggling to combat an emboldened Taliban. PAGE A13
CHINA SETS MELAMINE LIMITS
In an effort to rebuild consumer confidence, China's Health Ministry said that it had established limits for the allowable trace amounts of melamine in dairy products that officials said would make the items safe. This announcement follows revelations last month that at least three babies had died and 53,000 children had been sickened by drinking contaminated milk products. PAGE A10
NATIONAL
IN A BOOK OF OLD PHOTOS,
A Town Gets a Tribute
The photographs Everett Kuntz took as a teenager in Ridgeway, Iowa, in the late 1930s were unprinted for 60 years until Mr. Kuntz, dying with cancer, remembered them. They have since been published by the University of Iowa Press, and in Ridgeway the pictures have given the town something to smile about. PAGE A14
CHICAGO HALTS EVICTIONS
Law enforcement officers in Chicago will no longer evict residents from foreclosed properties, Sheriff Thomas Dart of Cook County said. The sheriff said he took the measure because an increasing number of the residents in foreclosed properties were renters who may have been dutifully paying their rent and may have no knowledge that the owner was behind on the mortgage. A new Chicago law gives renters 90 days from thetime a foreclosure sale is confirmed before they can be evicted. PAGE A14
A HAVEN ACROSS A STATE LINE
An Iowa resident crossed into Nebraska on Tuesday to abandon a 14-year-old girl in a hospital under a Nebraska law that allows parents or guardians to leave a child in state custody. Nebraska officials said it was the first time a child from out of state has been dropped off under the that law, posing legal and policy questions, including what to do with the girl. PAGE A15
GUIDELINES FOR STOPPING INFECTIONS
Hoping to improve infection control in hospitals, the nation's top epidemiological societies joined with the American Hospital Association and the Joint Commission, which accredits hospitals, to issue a compendium of guidelines. The recommended practices, like vigorous hand-washing before the insertion of catheters, do not vary in significant ways from the guidelines issued and revised over the last two decades by a government advisory panel. PAGE A15
STEVENS PROSECUTION IS DEALT BLOW
The judge presiding at the corruption trial of Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska dealt a sharp blow to the prosecution by excluding some evidence because he said Justice Department prosecutors used documents they knew contained lies. The judge declined to declare a mistrial or dismiss any of the seven felony counts as had been urged by Mr. Stevens's lawyers, but he delivered a severe scolding to the prosecution. PAGE A18
OBITUARIES
DR. ERNEST BEUTLER, 80
In the 1980s, he and his colleagues at the Scripps Research Institute developed and tested a drug which was found to be effective in treating a potentially fatal disease of the blood and bone marrow. PAGE A29
SPORTS
YANKEES COMPLEX CLOSE TO,
But Not Part of, Playoff Picture
At the Yankees minor league training complex in Tampa, Fla., the signs pay tribute to the team's record 26 World Series titles. But just a short drive away, the team that is getting ready to play in the American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox is the Tampa Bay Rays, who, along with the Red Sox and Mets, might just be the Yankees' biggest rivals. PAGE B17
GENDER GAP IN EXERCISE
Girls who are not white, come from immigrant backgrounds or live in urban areas are less likely to be physically active than boys, while children in suburban areas have achieved a level of relative gender parity in athletics, according to a national survey of more than 2,000 school-age children to be released Thursday by the Women's Sports Foundation. PAGE B17
NEW YORK
THE LONG HISTORY
Behind a Change of Heart
After an expensive and unsuccessful campaign for mayor almost 20 years ago, Ronald S. Lauder, the cosmetics magnate, single-handedly engineered and underwrote a referendum that enshrined him as the father of term limits for city officials. But after coffee and cookies with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg at Gracie Mansion on Wednesday, Mr. Lauder said he would not oppose a City Council bill to extend the limits to three terms for next year's election. PAGE A30
SHARPTON AND OTHERS GUILTY
The Rev. Al Sharpton and seven others were found guilty of disorderly conduct, a charge that stemmed from their blocking of several bridges and tunnels around the city in May during a protest of the acquittal of three detectives charged in the shooting death of Sean Bell. The judge, Larry R. Stephen of Manhattan Criminal Court, said he was ''sympathetic to the underlying causes which gave rise to the protests and demonstrations,'' but added, ''The evidence is overwhelming.'' PAGE A31
BLOGGING AGAINST THE TIDE
Richard Ivory is black and Republican and a New Yorker, a combination that presents challenges even under normal circumstances. He started a blog, HipHopRepublican.com, four years ago to voice criticism of what he perceived to be the political pigeonholing of blacks. But he acknowledges that this year, despite being a devout Republican, he feels history tugging at his loyalties. PAGE A31
BUSINESS
ICELAND COULD BE FIRST
Country to Go Bust
After a decade-long binge in which its major banks, and some of its citizens, expanded beyond their means, Iceland may be the first country to face the prospect of ''national bankruptcy'' since the credit crisis began. Many people are talking about an epochal change, but no one is quite sure what that would mean. PAGE B1
THE FACE OF THE BAILOUT
The man with the shaved head and intense eyes who has been traveling with the Treasury secretary to Capitol Hill to testify about the unfolding financial crisis is -- to the surprise of many -- a 35-year-old former Goldman Sachs investment banker, Neel Kashkari, whom Mr. Paulson has tapped to oversee the $700 billion bailout effort. PAGE B1
UPBEAT AMID THE DOWNTURN
Small-business owners might take solace in the upbeat attitude of Christopher Hazlett, founder and president of a software design firm in Hoboken, N.J. He is introducing a software program called Event Clipboard on Friday in the midst of the financial system's breakdown. Is he nervous? ''Most of all, I feel exuberant,'' he said. PAGE B5
AN ALMOST PERFECT IDEA
The concept is irresistible: a single, sleek pad that can replace the assorted black power bricks that are required to recharge your mobile gadgets. But you have to retrofit each existing appliance with special connections at a price of $35 each for it to work. David Pogue, State of the Art. PAGE B1
STRAIGHTENING OUT VISTA
Much has been made about the issues with Microsoft's Vista operating system -- including a series of TV commercials by Apple poking fun at it. But there are some ways to make your Vista experience more livable, and perhaps even more lovable. PAGE B10
HOME
A ROCK STAR WHO STAYS
Close to His Old Haunts
If you're Wayne Coyne, the singer, guitarist and guiding force of the Flaming Lips, a house isn't enough. You need a compound where you can put up visitors, rehearse without neighbors complaining, and shoot the movie you're co-directing and starring in. PAGE D1
DEALING WITH ASBESTOS
Building owners have spent millions of dollars to remove contaminated insulation, but it still isn't unusual to find asbestos in homes. What to do about it? The first rule is, don't disturb it. The second step depends on where you find it. PAGE D2
Arts
WITH HER COMPANY ALL GROWN UP,
A Director Says Goodbye
Tina Ramirez, above, the artistic director of Ballet Hispanico, is stepping down from her position after almost 40 years, but she doesn't want to call it retirement: ''I've been in the theater my whole life, how can you retire?'' The engagement is Ms. Ramirez's last as the leader of a company she helped to turn into one of the most prominent Hispanic-American dance organizations in the country. PAGE C1
NETWORKS COPYCAT FROM ABROAD
Jobs are not the only things being outsourced. ''Life on Mars,'' which premieres on ABC, is adapted from a British series. So is CBS's ''Eleventh Hour,'' in the same vein as the ''CSI'' shows, but by contrast it lacks pizzazz. ''Kath & Kim,'' which begins on NBC, is a copy of a popular Australian sitcom, but suffers from identity problems, Alessandra Stanley writes. PAGE C1
FOX NEWS HOST RENEWS CONTRACT
Sean Hannity, a cornerstone of Fox News Channel's prime-time schedule, has agreed to appear on the network through the next presidential election in 2012. With the contract renewal Mr. Hannity is expected to become an even more prominent part of Fox's opinion programming, especially since it remains unclear how much longer Bill O'Reilly, Fox News Channel's host of the 8 p.m. hour, will remain now that his contract has expired. PAGE C3
SECOND START FOR SERIES AND LIFE
Debra Messing, casting about for a new challenge after ''Will & Grace'' ended in 2006, took on the role of Molly in ''The Starter Wife,'' a six-part mini-series in May and June. Her character, who tries to remake herself as a writer and a single mother after her husband leaves her along with her (fake) friends, struck such a chord with both audiences and critics that the series is back and not as a mini. PAGE C1
Styles
DOWN TO BARE ESSENTIALS
And Moving Along
In covering fashion shows, looking at naked people becomes part of this often surreal job. But perhaps, what is strangest about this particular form of employment is that being around rooms filled with unclad women and men is anything but stimulating. PAGE E1
DO-IT-YOURSELF SPA AT HOME
With a $28,000 home massage machine, tooth whitening gel or a skin-friendly Taser, home spa treatment has come a long way from a Listerine gargle. PAGE E3
Editorial
NEARING THE END
No matter who wins the presidential election, the United States is on its way out of Iraq. Senator Barack Obama offers the most specific and speediest withdrawal plan, but even Senator John McCain will not be able to keep a large number of combat troops there for long. PAGE A36
THAT'S A PRETTY BIG GLITCH
Election officials, who will have plenty on their minds on Nov. 4, have one more thing to worry about: Diebold electronic voting machines that drop votes. PAGE A36
Op-Ed
GAIL COLLINS
Senator John McCain may feel compelled to go back to his guilt-by-association theme. And this has me feeling very guilty about my associates. PAGE A37
NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
The Bush administration is quietly cutting off birth control supplies to some of the world's poorest women. Thus the paradox: A ''pro-life'' administration adopts a policy that will result in tens of thousands of additional abortions each year and more women dying in childbirth. PAGE A37
SAVED BY THE DEFICIT?
In an Op-Ed article, Robert B. Reich, President Bill Clinton's first secretary of labor, insists that deficit spending will be necessary to get America out of its economic malaise, and that the next president need not cut back on any of his campaign proposals. PAGE A37
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October 9, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
U.S. MAY TAKE OWNERSHIP STAKE IN BANKS TO EASE CREDIT CRISIS
BYLINE: By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and MARK LANDLER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1407 words
WASHINGTON -- Having tried without success to unlock frozen credit markets, the Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many United States banks to try to restore confidence in the financial system, according to government officials.
Treasury officials say the just-passed $700 billion bailout bill gives them the authority to inject cash directly into banks that request it. Such a move would quickly strengthen banks' balance sheets and, officials hope, persuade them to resume lending. In return, the law gives the Treasury the right to take ownership positions in banks, including healthy ones.
The Treasury plan was still preliminary and it was unclear how the process would work, but it appeared that it would be voluntary for banks.
The proposal resembles one announced on Wednesday in Britain. Under that plan, the British government would offer banks like the Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC Holdings up to $87 billion to shore up their capital in exchange for preference shares. It also would provide a guarantee of about $430 billion to help banks refinance debt.
The American recapitalization plan, officials say, has emerged as one of the most favored new options being discussed in Washington and on Wall Street. The appeal is that it would directly address the worries that banks have about lending to one another and to other customers.
This new interest in direct investment in banks comes after yet another tumultuous day in which the Federal Reserve and five other central banks marshaled their combined firepower to cut interest rates but failed to stanch the global financial panic.
In a coordinated action, the central banks reduced their benchmark interest rates by one-half percentage point. On top of that, the Bank of England announced its plan to nationalize part of the British banking system and devote almost $500 billion to guarantee financial transactions between banks.
The coordinated rate cut was unprecedented and surprising. Never before has the Fed issued an announcement on interest rates jointly with another central bank, let alone five other central banks, including the People's Bank of China.
Yet the world's markets hardly seemed comforted. Credit markets on Wednesday remained almost as stalled as the day before. Stock prices, which had plunged in Europe and Asia before the announcement, continued to plummet afterward. And stock prices in the United States went on a roller-coaster ride, at the end of which the Dow Jones industrial average was down 189 points, or 2 percent.
On Thursday, shares rebounded somewhat in Europe, with many exchanges up more than one percent, but Asian markets were mixed.
The gloomy market response on Monday sent policy makers and outside experts on a scramble for additional remedies to stabilize the banks and reassure investors.
There is no shortage of ideas, ranging from the partial nationalization proposal to a guarantee by the Fed of all lending between banks.
Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, on Wednesday refined his proposal -- revealed in a debate with the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama, the night before -- to allow millions of Americans to refinance their mortgages with government assistance.
As Washington casts about for Plan B, investors are clamoring for the Fed to lower interest rates to nearly zero. Some are also calling for governments worldwide to provide another round of economic stimulus through expensive public works projects.
Yet behind the scramble for solutions lies a hard reality: the financial crisis has mutated into a global downturn that economists warn will be painful and protracted, and for which there is no quick cure.
''Everyone is conditioned to getting instant relief from the medicine, and that is unrealistic,'' said Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, a forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass. ''As hard as it is for investors and jobholders and politicians in an election year, this crisis will not end without a lot more pain.''
One concern about the Treasury's bailout plan is that it calls for limits on executive pay when capital is directly injected into a bank. The law directs Treasury officials to write compensation standards that would discourage executives from taking ''unnecessary and excessive risks'' and that would allow the government to recover any bonus pay that is based on stated earnings that turn out to be inaccurate. In addition, any bank in which the Treasury holds a stake would be barred from paying its chief executive a ''golden parachute'' package.
Treasury officials worry that aggressive government purchases, if not done properly, could alarm bank shareholders by appearing to be punitive or could be interpreted by the market as a sign that target banks were failing.
At a news conference on Wednesday, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., pointedly named the Treasury's new authority to inject capital into institutions as the first in a list of new powers included in the bailout law.
''We will use all the tools we've been given to maximum effectiveness,'' Mr. Paulson said, ''including strengthening the capitalization of financial institutions of every size.''
The idea is gaining support even among longtime Republican policy makers who have spent most of their careers defending laissez-faire economic policies.
''The problem is the uncertainty that people have about doing business with banks, and banks have about doing business with each other,'' said William Poole, a staunchly free-market Republican who stepped down as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on Aug. 31. ''We need to eliminate that uncertainty as fast as we can, and one way to do that is by injecting capital directly into banks. I think it could be done very quickly.''
Mr. Paulson acknowledged that the flurry of emergency steps had done little to break the cycle of fear and mistrust, and he pleaded for patience.
''The turmoil will not end quickly,'' Mr. Paulson told reporters on Wednesday. ''Neither the passage of this law nor the implementation of these initiatives will bring an immediate end to the current difficulties.''
Mr. Paulson will play host to finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 7 countries this Friday. But he cautioned against expecting a grand plan to emerge from the gathering.
More likely, the participants will compare notes about the measures they are adopting in their own countries. David H. McCormick, Treasury's under secretary for international affairs, said there was no ''one size fits all'' remedy for the crisis, though countries were cooperating through the coordinated cuts in interest rates, with guarantees on bank deposits and in regulations.
At the Federal Reserve in Washington, officials insisted they had not run out of options and made it clear they were willing to do whatever it took to shore up the economy.
Fed officials increasingly talk about the challenge they face with a phrase that President Bush used in another context: ''regime change.''
This regime change refers to a change in the economic environment so radical that, at least for a while, economic policy makers will need to suspend what are usually sacred principles: minimal interference in free markets, gradualism and predictability.
In the last month, both the Treasury and the Fed took extraordinary steps toward nationalizing three of the biggest financial companies in the country. Last month, the Treasury took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant government-sponsored mortgage-finance companies that were on the brink of collapse. A week later, the Fed took control of the American International Group, the failing insurance conglomerate, in exchange for agreeing to lend it $85 billion.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lend A.I.G. an additional $37.8 billion.
But neither the individual corporate bailouts nor the Fed's enormous emergency lending programs -- including up to $900 billion through its Term Auction Facility for banks -- have succeeded in jump-starting the credit markets.
''The core problem is that the smart people are realizing that the banking system is broken,'' said Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. ''Nobody knows who is holding the tainted assets, how much they have and how it affects their balance sheets. So nobody is willing to believe that anybody else isn't insolvent, until it's proven otherwise.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: ''We will use all the tools we've been given to maximum effectiveness,'' Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said, ''including strengthening the capitalization of financial institutions.''(PHOTOGRAPH BY CHRIS KLEPONIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS)
Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain addressing the House of Commons on Wednesday. The British government was the first to announce a sweeping plan to partly nationalize banks.(PHOTOGRAPH BY ASSOCIATED PRESS)(pg. A30) CHART: Federal Reserve
Treasury Department: Some major steps this year by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Chart details timeline. (A1)
Activist Fed: As the financial crisis has unfolded, the Federal Reserve, in addition to making a series of interest rate cuts, has taken on an increasingly activist role in the markets.(Source: Bloomberg (rate cuts)) Chart details timeline for FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE. (pg. A30)
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The New York Times
October 9, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
G.O.P. Facing Tougher Battle For Congress
BYLINE: By CARL HULSE and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1555 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say.
Top campaign officials for both parties, pollsters and independent experts say the intense focus on the economic turmoil and last week's bailout vote have combined to rapidly expand a Democratic advantage in Congressional contests. Analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities.
In North Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Dole, a former Republican presidential contender and cabinet member, is teetering. In Kentucky, the opponent of the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, has drawn even in some polls, though Republicans say they believe he will win.
Democrats say they feel confidently ahead in five Senate races where they hope to pick up Republican seats, and they believe their candidates are running competitively in seven more.
In the House, Democrats say they could capture a dozen of the 26 Republican seats left open by retirements, and challengers are closing in on Republican incumbents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New York and elsewhere.
''The last week has severely damaged Republican candidates,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst who predicts that Democrats could gain as many as six to nine Senate seats and 25 to 30 House seats. ''Everything points to warning signals for Republicans.''
If such projections by Mr. Rothenberg and others are realized, it would push Senate Democrats tantalizingly close to the filibuster-proof 60-vote majority that has eluded Senate leaders since the late 1970s. While the environment could change again in the remaining weeks, recent polling suggests a fundamental shift, with Republicans absorbing more of the blame for the economic uncertainty.
At the same time, the political arms of Congressional Republicans are being outspent -- their House organization recently borrowed $8 million -- and have fewer targets, with only a handful of Democrats in Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin and in potential trouble.
Republicans are understandably nervous.
''There is no question the economic crisis, the great stimulus debate and the aftermath changed a playing field that had been improving to one that has become considerably more challenging,'' said Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Senator John Ensign of Nevada, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he was encouraging candidates to ''stay positive'' and ''run like you are 10 points down,'' which in some cases they are. ''You don't have to scare people this election cycle,'' Mr. Ensign said. ''As far as our candidates, they know to take this seriously.''
Strategists for both parties say Republican House and Senate candidates are being hurt by the dip in support for Senator John McCain at the top of the ticket, frustrating Republicans who had initially viewed Mr. McCain as a strong asset who could appeal to independents and even moderate Democrats and protect Republicans in a tough year.
But the market volatility and perceived Democratic edge on handling the economy has evidently turned voters to Democrats, a view supported by one top adviser to Republican candidates.
''This financial crisis has provided momentum to Barack Obama and other Democrats, and their campaigns now have the wind at their backs,'' said the consultant, who asked not to be identified speaking pessimistically about the Republican outlook.
Republicans say they could still limit losses by arguing to voters that Democrats would pursue a tax-heavy agenda if they were to strengthen their grip on Washington and by pointing to Democratic fault in the economic situation.
''Seize every opportunity to hold Democrats accountable for their role in creating the economic crisis,'' Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican leader, urged his colleagues in a memorandum distributed Wednesday.
But the numbers illustrate a stark challenge for Republicans. In the House, 23 seats held by Republicans are generally rated tossups and 4 others are leaning Democratic; just 8 Democratic seats fall into the tossup category and one, now held by Representative Nick Lampson in the Houston area, is rated likely to change parties. In the Senate, one Republican seat -- Virginia -- is considered safely in the Democratic column, and Alaska and New Mexico are considered leaning Democratic. Five states -- Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon -- are tossups.
''We're doing extremely well in places we didn't expect to do well,'' Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Wednesday.
In putting their vying messages before the voters, the Democrats' campaign committees have an edge in how much advertising they can afford. The committees tend to focus their spending in the most competitive districts.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has spent well under $1 million on advertisements in House districts, compared with more than $16 million invested in advertising by the House Democrats' campaign committee. And it can only afford to spend in defense of select Republican seats. On Wednesday, the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call first reported that the Republican campaign group was borrowing $8 million to buy more advertising in the closing weeks, and to avoid being heavily outspent.
In district after district, House Democrats are running advertisements seeking to link Republicans with President Bush and his economic record.
A Democratic commercial against Representative Christopher Shays of Connecticut, the only Republican House member in New England, shows him shaking hands with Mr. Bush. It includes audio of a September radio interview where Mr. Shays asserted that ''our economy is fundamentally strong.'' A similar statement by Mr. McCain put him on the defensive last month. Polls show Mr. Shays with a lead, but Democrats say their candidate, Jim Himes, is gaining ground.
Mr. McConnell, the Republican leader whom Democrats would relish knocking off as payback for the 2004 defeat of their leader, Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, is being tied to the economic deterioration in new commercials on behalf of his Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy businessman.
In an advertisement that began running on Wednesday in Kentucky, Democrats showed Mr. McConnell's face on an Old West-style wanted poster. ''Some places it'd be considered a crime, but not in Washington,'' an announcer says with a cowboy twang. ''Wall Street and the big banks gave Mitch McConnell $4.4 million for his campaigns, and he fought for less regulation of Wall Street.'' Showing a stampede of wild horses, the announcer continues: ''McConnell opened the gate and Wall Street went wild, and now our entire economy is at risk. Maybe it's time we bring Mitch McConnell back to the corral.''
Republicans remain confident that Mr. McConnell will prevail.
The economy is also a main advertising theme in New Hampshire and Oregon, two other states where Democrats are taking aim at Republican incumbents.
A commercial from Senator Gordon H. Smith's Democratic opponent, Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the Oregon House, says: ''Gordon Smith and George Bush, billions and billions in tax breaks for big oil and corporations that ship jobs overseas. Now a blank check for Wall Street.'' In North Carolina, Kay Hagan, a Democratic state senator, has mounted a surprisingly aggressive challenge that has catapulted her ahead of Mrs. Dole in some recent polls. She has gained ground, in part, by emphasizing how little time Mrs. Dole spent in North Carolina in the early years of her first term. In recent days, the Hagan campaign has focused on blaming both Mrs. Dole and President Bush for the troubled economy.
Trying to get ahead of voter anger, Senator Saxby Chambliss, Republican of Georgia, uses a commercial to defend his vote for the bailout, which he said was in response to the worst financial crisis of his lifetime. ''I'm as mad as you are about what happened,'' he tells viewers, ''but doing nothing would have been a disaster.''
The Georgia race, where Jim Martin, a former Democratic state legislator, is seeking to deny Mr. Chambliss a second term, would seem a long shot for Democrats. But they are hoping for a huge increase in turnout among African-Americans excited about the presidential candidacy of Senator Barack Obama to notch a victory.
In the House, the National Republican Congressional Committee has begun its own television advertising campaign and is emphasizing economics, though with a twist.
In a new advertisement against Steve Driehaus, a Democratic state lawmaker challenging Representative Steve Chabot, the Republican incumbent in a Cincinnati district hit by home foreclosures, the narrator faults Mr. Driehaus for missing a legislative vote to limit foreclosures while fund-raising in Washington.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: KENTUCKY: Senator Mitch McConnell, right, with his Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford. Mr. Lunsford has gained ground in some polls, but Republicans believe they will hold on to the seat.(PHOTOGRAPH BY ED REINKE/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
NORTH CAROLINA: Senator Elizabeth Dole, campaigning last month with her husband, Bob, is in a tough race for a second term against a Democratic state senator, Kay Hagan, right.(PHOTOGRAPH BY CHUCK LIDDY/THE NEWS & OBSERVER)(pg. A22) CHARTS: The House: According to an analysis by The New York Times, 23 Republican seats are currently tossups, as opposed to 8 Democratic ones. Four Republican seats are leaning Democratic.
The Senate: Republicans are facing tough competition to hold onto nearly one-third of the party's 23 seats that are up for election this year. Virginia appears to be a certain gain for the Democrats, while New Mexico and Alaska are leaning their way. Five seats currently held by Republicans are tossups.(Sources: TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG
Cook Political Report) Chart details U.S. (pg. A22)
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USA TODAY
October 9, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Candidates continue debate on relief for mortgage holders
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 332 words
WASHINGTON -- Republican John McCain on Wednesday touted his plan to have government buy up bad mortgages, while Democrat Barack Obama said his rival's approach would hurt taxpayers and help bad lenders.
A day after the second presidential debate was dominated by exchanges on the sagging economy, McCain told supporters in Pennsylvania his $300 billion plan would help struggling homeowners obtain "manageable mortgages."
His plan would direct the Treasury secretary to buy the mortgages directly and use funds from the $700 billion financial bailout approved by Congress last week. The bailout package currently calls for the government to buy mortgage-backed securities and allow -- but not require -- direct purchases of mortgages.
"We must go to the heart of the problem, and right now that problem is a housing crisis," McCain said.
Obama has said he wants the government to consider such a move, but he has not called for a mandate. His campaign said a key difference between McCain's proposal and the new government bailout program is that lenders would absorb losses that would otherwise go to taxpayers.
"The biggest beneficiaries of this (McCain) plan will be the same financial institutions that got us into this mess," Obama economic policy director Jason Furman said.
McCain policy adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin said the Republican wants direct action so homeowners get relief quicker. He said the McCain plan could affect as many as 10 million mortgage holders.
In Indiana, Obama again sought to link McCain to President Bush. "It is time to turn the page on eight years of economic policies that put Wall Street before Main Street."
The campaigns also followed up the debate with new television advertisements. Obama's spot criticizes McCain's plan for health care tax credits, saying it would lead to taxes on employer-based benefits.
McCain's ad, meanwhile, questions Obama's qualifications, calling him the "most liberal" member of the U.S. Senate and saying he is "not presidential."
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October 9, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Need a tech-savvy president?;
As a practical matter, no. But as a political matter ...
BYLINE: James Rosen
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 11A
LENGTH: 889 words
"The President," Norman Mailer wrote in 1963, "has commissions and commissars and bureaus and agents and computer machines to calculate the amount of schooling needed to keep America healthy, safe, vigorous. ... To keep America up."
No one in Mailer's time imagined the president himself operating one of those "computer machines." But times have changed, as Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, tells us in a controversial TV ad. "He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer," an announcer tsk-tsks about Republican nominee John McCain, adding that the Arizona senator "can't send an e-mail."
Can't send an e-mail! Savor the scorn! Clearly, the 47-year-old Obama, whose campaign is the most tech-savvy yet, is playing generational politics and using McCain's words against him. Asked in January by Politico's Mike Allen whether he uses a Mac or PC, McCain shrugged: "I am an illiterate that has to rely on my wife for all of the assistance that I can get."
"I've never felt the particular need to e-mail," the 72-year-old McCain elaborated in July. But the Vietnam War fighter pilot seems eager to learn new tricks: "I am learning to get online myself."
Does it matter?
With 73% of Americans surfing the Web, Obama's ad assumes they will view as hopelessly out of touch, and accordingly vote against, a septuagenarian who has no such skills. But do voters really expect the nation's chief executive to be computer-savvy? Does it matter if he is?
As a practical matter, no. The number of "commissions and commissars and bureaus and agents and computer machines" surrounding the Oval Office has only increased since the publication of The Presidential Papers by Mailer. Where FDR relied on "six anonymous assistants," the modern presidency boasts 125 offices and 5,000 employees. Tom Wolfe once described ordering aides around as the politician's ultimate power: "As soon as you see people jump when you raise your finger ... well, there's a great feeling of wholeness about that, apparently." Who would raise that finger to type -- hunt and peck like a regular schnook -- when he has 5,000 people to do it for him? Jump!
Two centuries of iconography, from Matthew Brady's Lincoln to George W. Bush's landing on the Lincoln, have trained Americans to conceive of POTUS -- the Greek god-like acronym for president of the United States used by the Secret Service and hipster reporters -- in idealized corporate terms: "Mad Men" minus the boozing and womanizing (JFK aside), pinstriped industrial titans less likely to bang out their own correspondence than to bellow out: "Ms. Crabtree, take a letter!" The "burdens" of the presidency -- the aggregate of global troubles visible in those black-and-white shots of Kennedy and Johnson, despairing silhouettes framed against Rose Garden snows -- are presumed to be too heavy for "The Leader of the Free World" to trifle with anything beyond briefings and maps, all preparatory to his real business: decision-making. Do we really want POTUS lingering about ESPN.com box scores, or posting snappy retorts at the Daily Kos?
Symbolically, though, our egalitarian era might demand a president as adept online as he is on The Hotline. By mocking McCain's computer illiteracy, Obama risks cries of "ageism" -- even running mate Joe Biden (age 65) denounced the TV spot as "terrible" -- on the bet that Americans want their leaders to be like themselves, steeped in similar experiences, tethered (wirelessly) to reality.
The McCain camp's understanding of this desire explains Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's frequent reminder that she placed her predecessor's state jet up for auction on eBay: Not only is she fiscally sensible, she's an eBay user -- she's ... with it! (Left unaddressed is whether Palin herself or an aide -- jump! -- actually clicked the mouse.)
Historically, Democrats prefer exceptionalism in their leaders, Republicans populism. JFK, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and Obama, though all products of the old-fashioned political "machines" in their states, have presented themselves as cutting-edge types, solicitous of new technologies. Even the down-home LBJ, surveying his Texas-sized mistakes in Vietnam, navigated three TV sets at once.
The regular guys
By contrast, Republican leaders Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bush 41 and W. -- all thoughtful men frequently underestimated by their opponents -- have willfully cultivated anti-intellectual, Luddite personas. At times, of course, artifice give way to reality: Nixon's mechanical abilities were so deficient he reportedly had difficulty opening the boxes of cuff links he presented to Oval Office visitors (and thus could be forgiven for forgetting that his voice-activated taping machines were running even at moments when he later wished they hadn't been).
Ultimately, the numbers could be on McCain's side, even if the zeroes and ones are not. Census figures show that 64% of American voters cast ballots but that 72% of senior citizens do -- and only a quarter of them use the Internet. Just imagine McCain's next TV ad, keyed to elderly populations and attacking Obama's digital-age fluency: "He fools around with computers -- and annoys people with e-mails!" Savor the scorn!
James Rosen is a Fox News Washington correspondent and author of The Strong Man: John Mitchell and the Secrets of Watergate.
LOAD-DATE: October 9, 2008
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The Washington Post
October 9, 2008 Thursday
Every Edition
10 Steps Through Virginia to the White House
BYLINE: Tim Craig; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: EXTRAS; Pg. PW04
LENGTH: 1119 words
DATELINE: RICHMOND
With less than one month to go until the Nov. 4 elections, Virginia is shaping up to be a make-or-break state for John McCain's hopes of winning the White House.
Despite the state's long history of supporting GOP presidential nominees, Barack Obama appears to have made major inroads in his battle to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes.
Several recent polls show Obama tied or narrowly leading McCain, which is making Republicans nervous. Yet this is still Virginia, a historically conservative state that last backed a Democratic nominee in 1964. So Obama will have to fight hard until the end, regardless of what the polls say. McCain hopes to make up some ground Monday when he and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, attend a rally in Virginia Beach and she goes on to a rally in Richmond.
But here are 10 things to watch over the next month to help gauge whether McCain or Obama will have the upper hand on Election Day.
1) What role does Mark R. Warner play for Obama?
Warner, the Democratic candidate for Senate, remains one of Virginia's most popular politicians. According to polls, he holds a 30-point lead over Republican James S. Gilmore III in the battle of the former governors. In 2006, Warner played a key role in helping Sen. James Webb (D) get across the finish line in his campaign. Warner starred in a Webb television ad that was widely aired.
Many Democrats say they think Warner can play an equally important role for Obama this year, especially in rural Virginia, where some voters might have doubts about the Illinois senator. Warner's staff is working diligently behind the scenes in support of Obama, but it's unclear how public the candidate will be with his support. Even though he has a big lead over Gilmore, Warner is still hoping to attract support from moderate Republicans. Those voters could shun Warner if he takes a high-profile role in Obama's campaign.
2) What does Sen. John W. Warner do on behalf of McCain?
John Warner is another Virginia politician who has a reputation for being able to move some undecided voters, especially moderate Republicans and voters in Hampton Roads. In 2006, Warner tried desperately to shore up Republican George Allen in his race against Webb but came up short. John Warner is a big McCain supporter, and has had several conference calls with reporters to tout his candidacy. If the retiring senator takes a more high-profile role, such as appearing in a television ad, he could keep some independents and moderate Republicans from defecting to Obama.
3) What is the state of Richmond's banking industry?
Four of the top 12 employers in Richmond are affiliated with the finance industry. Capitol One, Bank of America, SunTrust and Wachovia employ a combined 20,000 people, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Many of them live in suburban Richmond, where Republicans have traditionally racked up huge margins on Election Day.
But with the credit crisis, Richmond's banking industry could suffer. The economic uncertainty might cause some traditional GOP voters to migrate toward Obama. If Obama eats into historical GOP margins in places such as Chesterfield County, it will be nearly impossible for McCain to win statewide.
4) How many absentee ballots from service members are being returned to Hampton Roads?
Hampton Roads is home to the world's largest naval base, and service members can play a big role in the outcome of presidential contests there.
In 2004, large numbers of military members serving overseas voted by absentee ballot, and they appeared to overwhelmingly support President Bush.
There are signs this year that Obama has made some inroads with this group. Troops serving abroad have given Obama six times as much money as they have McCain, according to the Center for Responsive Politics and USA Today.
But the voting could still work in McCain's favor, meaning that a surge in absentee ballots from overseas could bode well for his chances statewide.
5) Does Keith Fimian, the GOP nominee for Congress in the 11th District, start trying to put some distance between himself and McCain?
The 11th Congressional District, which includes parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties, has been rapidly trending Democratic in recent statewide elections.
In 2004, Bush carried it by less than one percentage point. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) carried it by 13 percentage points one year later. Webb won it by 10 percentage points in 2006.
If Obama starts approaching Kaine and Webb margins, he will have a good shot at winning the state, and Fimian will have a hard time prevailing in his race against Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald E. Connolly (D) without distancing himself from McCain.
6) How many times does a representative of either campaign visit your house?
The number of visits by a canvasser from the Obama or McCain campaign is a good indication of what kind of get-out-the-vote effort each side will wage in your neighborhood on Election Day.
7) What is Kaine's real approval rating?
A Washington Post poll published late last month had Kaine's approval rating at 66 percent. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll published Sunday had it at 54 percent. Kaine is a big Obama supporter. If Kaine's approval rating is 66 percent, he might have some sway in turning votes for Obama. But if it's 54 percent, he probably won't.
8) How many newly registered voters are there in Brunswick County in southern Virginia?
African Americans make up 56 percent of the population in the county, but they have historically low registration and turnout rates. There are 12,000 people of voting age in the county, but only about 7,000 people voted in the 2004 election. Between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 487 residents registered to vote. If that number grows significantly when final registration numbers are released this month, it could mean that Obama's efforts to register black voters in Southside have been successful.
9) What are the final poll numbers in Hampton Roads?
Opinion polls in Hampton Roads have been very inconsistent. Some show Obama with a double-digit lead in that key swing area. Others show him with a narrow advantage. Still others show Obama and McCain tied. The polls that show Obama up in Hampton Roads also have him leading statewide. Those that have him tied in Hampton Roads show a tied race statewide.
10) Do Democratic officials in southwest Virginia get fully behind Obama?
Virginia Democratic leaders say they are having a hard time getting some party officials in that part of the state enthused about Obama. If that problem persists, it could mean that Obama could do even worse than Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) did in rural Virginia in 2004. If that occurs, McCain will probably carry the state.
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The Washington Post
October 9, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
MoveOn Grows Up;
What Started Online in '98 Has Transformed Liberal Politicking
BYLINE: Jose Antonio Vargas; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 2474 words
DATELINE: NEW YORK
Five days after Sen. John McCain named Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, Quinn Latimer and co-worker Lyra Kilston sent an e-mail to 40 female friends and invited them to outline the reasons they were upset with his choice. It elicited such a huge response -- from friends of friends and utter strangers -- that they created a blog called Women Against Sarah Palin. In less than a month, it has become one of the largest hubs of online opposition to Palin, receiving more than 160,000 e-mails.
"I am a fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republican," writes a 65-year-old from Flagstaff, Ariz. "I am aghast at the choice the Republican ticket has made."
"As a registered Independent, I'd been holding out in deciding which way to go on this election. However, once I saw Sarah Palin being interviewed . . . it was a much easier decision," writes a 52-year-old from Los Angeles.
Along the way, Latimer got an e-mail from Eli Pariser, head of the liberal group MoveOn.org. Pariser knows about e-mail campaigns; he built MoveOn around them. And Latimer has been a member of the organization since 2000. When Pariser found out that Latimer and Kilston also live in Brooklyn, he asked them to brunch at Flatbush Farm, a local hot spot. Over eggs, oatmeal and coffee, he offered technical support from MoveOn. At one point, he even suggested that the women take time off from their jobs and work full time on the blog until Nov. 4. MoveOn, Pariser told the women, could raise the funds to pay them.
"I got to admit I was shocked by that," says Latimer, 30, an art editor.
Adds Kilston, 31, also an art editor: "We just kind of stumbled into this whole blogging thing."
The women decided to keep their jobs while maintaining the site. But now, with help from MoveOn, they'll use the e-mail list of everyone who has sent a note to the blog to send information about voter registration, phone call drives and house parties. And, to match their online activism, Latimer and Kilston plan to knock on doors for Sen. Barack Obama in Pennsylvania.
MoveOn, the enfant terrible of online politicking, is growing up, turning 10 years old last month. And it has become far more than a purveyor of vituperative e-mail blasts. During the 2006 midterm elections, for instance, the online organization -- with a full-time staff of 23, most of whom work from home -- spent $28 million advocating for Democratic candidates through its political action committee, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. In contrast, the National Rifle Association, with a staff of about 500 housed in its expansive headquarters in Fairfax, spent $11 million through its PAC.
As the battle between Obama and McCain heated up this summer, MoveOn witnessed its largest increase in membership -- adding a million new members in three months, bringing its total to 4.2 million.
Not bad for a group that started off as an online petition to stop the impeachment of President Bill Clinton. Created in September 1998 by Silicon Valley entrepreneurs Wes Boyd and Joan Blades, the petition asked Congress to censure Clinton and "move on" to other domestic issues.
"At first, we weren't sure what to make of MoveOn," says Paul Begala, then a senior aide in the Clinton White House. "But it became clear that the grass-roots power that MoveOn represents is what helped save us." In the years since -- through the group's virulent opposition to President Bush and the Iraq war -- Begala has regarded MoveOn as a "spinal transplant" that has reinvigorated the Democratic Party.
Perhaps that's an exaggeration. Democrats, after all, lost the White House in 2000 and 2004. It wasn't until the 2006 midterms that they controlled Congress. Still, political operatives in both parties agree that MoveOn is a singular force in Washington, unmatched in its reach and resources. For years, some Republicans have tried to create their own version of it, with little success. At the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., last month, Tom DeLay, the former House majority leader, bemoaned that the right has "nothing that looks like MoveOn.org," adding that the GOP is "still in denial about what the left has been able to do."
But what exactly is MoveOn?
Although it's not a formal arm of the Democratic Party -- and the group doesn't rule out endorsing and financing third-party candidates -- MoveOn has become synonymous with the party's left wing. It's not technically a lobbying group: MoveOn doesn't employ lobbyists who've mastered the ins and outs of Capitol Hill. It's more akin to an interest group, a la Emily's List, the pro-choice organization that supports like-minded female politicians, although Pariser says somewhat grandiosely, "We are not about serving our members' individual interests -- we are primarily serving a national interest." And though officials like to say that MoveOn's membership is as sizable as the NRA's, signing up to receive the group's e-mails is not the same level of commitment as paying dues to the gun rights organization.
But in an online networking era in which pols promote their e-mail lists as a symbol of their grass-roots strength, MoveOn's list is unlike any other.
The group is led by Pariser, a tall, lanky self-described computer geek, who grew up in Lincolnville, Maine, and graduated at 19 from Simon's Rock, a small liberal arts college in western Massachusetts. "Led" is a verb that Pariser would take exception to. The way he sees it, MoveOn members are in charge. "They tell us where to go. They lead us," the 27-year-old says of his organization. "It's not about having anointed leaders. It's about leveraging technology so people can help lead themselves."
He points to regular surveys that MoveOn conducts to take the pulse of its membership. One week, members deem getting a 60-seat, filibuster-proof Democratic Senate majority as a top priority. The next, eyes turn to the financial bailout plan. When MoveOn members voted to endorse Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton days before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, it was up to Pariser to call and tell Patti Solis Doyle, who was then Clinton's campaign manager.
At the Democratic National Convention in Denver, where MoveOn hosted a packed soiree attended by the likes of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and comedian Sarah Silverman, the group seemed part of the very establishment that it criticizes -- a charge that Pariser rejects. To the McCain campaign, Obama and MoveOn are inseparable. "It's hard for Obama to claim any pretenses of bipartisan outreach when he gladly accepts the help of partisan special-interest groups like MoveOn.org," says McCain spokesman Alex Conant.
Pariser's political activism also began with an e-mail. After the Sept. 11 attacks, he sent a note to a group of friends, urging them to contact their elected officials and ask for a restrained response to the tragedy. The e-mail turned into a petition, eventually signed by more than half a million people online. Two months later, MoveOn called with a job offer.
Guided by Pariser, MoveOn began to make its mark by raising money online -- lots of it.
"When we started MoveOn, there was this standard model of how candidates are elected. Say I'm a candidate and you're a political consultant. You put me in a room, you give me a list of rich donors to call, I make calls and raise, what, $2,000 checks. Then I hand the $2,000 checks to you. You make ads with it. You take a healthy cut. You put those ads in the air -- that's how elections are won. At no point during that process does it matter to anyone other than the rich donors what you actually stand for," Pariser says.
"There's a different model now. It was the [Howard] Dean model. It's now the Obama model. You can say things that inspire people and get lots of people to contribute just a little bit. Twenty. Fifty. Maybe, who knows, even a hundred. Then instead of being accountable to a small set of rich donors, you're accountable to a large set of everyday donors."
The money has afforded MoveOn so much pull that it's hard to find a prominent Democrat who will openly criticize the group's tactics and positions. "Elected officials don't want to offend them and lose their money, right?" says a party strategist who refused to be identified. MoveOn, he adds, "is like a big-party donor, so they get treated that way. . . . A lot of people in the party who used to have more power don't like that they are losing juice to the likes of MoveOn, but they also realize they can't have the power they have without them."
Throughout this campaign cycle, MoveOn has raised nearly $33 million and expects to hit $38 million before Election Day -- money spent buying ads for and against candidates and funding get-out-the-vote efforts. All that money has led to more influence. And to more criticism when the group stumbles.
For instance, MoveOn was repudiated by Republicans and Democrats alike in September 2007 when the group ran an anti-war print ad in the New York Times that questioned the integrity of Gen. David Petraeus, the commander in Iraq. "General Petraeus or General Betray Us?" read the ad. Republicans introduced resolutions condemning the ad that easily passed in both the House and Senate.
Pariser defended it at the time. But now, more than a year later, he says he "would have worded the ad differently."
"MoveOn is still evolving, still maturing, still learning what its boundaries are," says Tad Devine, a longtime Democratic consultant. "But make no mistake about it: This election might be decided by a few votes in a few states. . . . Having those hundreds of thousands of people communicating with each other through e-mails, energizing the base, can make the difference."
Beyond Hitting 'Fwd:'
On Aug. 29, just hours after the Alaska governor became the first Republican woman on a national ticket, MoveOn sent an e-mail to its members titled "Who is Sarah Palin?"
"Yesterday was John McCain's 72nd birthday. If elected, he'd be the oldest president ever inaugurated," read the e-mail. "And after months of slamming Barack Obama for 'inexperience,' here's who John McCain has chosen to be one heartbeat away from the presidency."
That became one of the most forwarded e-mails in MoveOn's history, Pariser says. (The group can count how many people click on the link in the e-mail.)
Two weeks later, on Sept. 10, MoveOn sent another e-mail, this one titled "Disgusting."
"John McCain and Sarah Palin are repeatedly deceiving, manipulating, and flat-out lying. And polls are showing that some of those lies are convincing voters," the e-mail began. "Palin says she opposed the 'Bridge to Nowhere' -- when in fact she fully supported it. McCain says Obama wants sex-ed for kindergartners -- when he voted for a bill to protect them from sexual predators."
That e-mail raised $1.2 million within 24 hours, Pariser says, the most a MoveOn e-mail has raised in a single day.
"In a way, Palin's selection was yet another wake-up call, another reminder of just how high the stakes are," says Pariser. "A lot of people have said that she's energized the evangelical base. Well, she's energized the liberal base, too. Our energy level went way, way up."
The challenge for a maturing organization is to move beyond forwarding e-mails and facilitating online donations. Can MoveOn persuade independents and Republicans to cross party lines? Is it increasing voter turnout in swing states? How can it avoid being reduced to parody? A recent headline in the Onion, for instance, read "Obama Deletes Another Unread MoveOn.org E-Mail."
Those are the questions in the minds of critics such as Clay Shirky, author of "Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations." Sending an e-mail to your congressional representative is so easy that it has "become effectively meaningless," writes Shirky.
Shortly after the book came out, Pariser asked Shirky to lunch. On the day of the meeting, Shirky Twittered: "I'm going to lunch with MoveOn. If I don't Tweet again in two hours, they had me killed."
"Eli sees MoveOn as a community-organizing platform that happens to run e-mail campaigns," says Shirky, recalling the conversation. "I'm inclined to think of them as a message and fundraising organization that does some community organizing. They do some, but they can do so much more."
In the past five years, Pariser has beefed up the group's offline strategy. In addition to airing pro-Obama TV ads, the group will spend about $5 million in field efforts this cycle.
MoveOn collaborates with political scientists at Yale who are studying the impact of its canvassing and get-out-the-vote efforts in 2004 and 2006. In 2004, about 70,000 members went door to door in 12 states trying to increase voter turnout. This year, Pariser estimates that about 200,000 will have gotten involved by Election Day in more than a dozen states.
MoveOn is also holding hundreds of "Call for Change" house parties, at which members call voters in swing states. On a recent Sunday night, MoveOn members made half a million phone calls in two hours. They urged supporters to volunteer for the Obama campaign -- and, in classic MoveOn style, posted photos on Flickr of themselves talking on their phones.
The Communications Hub
"I give it a 55-45, with Obama winning," Pariser says from behind his standing desk in his home office. Thomas Jefferson and Donald Rumseld, he notes, had standing desks. "I somehow picked up that trivia."
He got up at 6:20 a.m. on this late September day, went to back-to-back meetings in the afternoon ("with other online advocacy groups," he says, repeatedly declining to elaborate), then hurried home, which is a cramped two-bedroom apartment in Brooklyn where he sometimes has to jiggle the toilet handle to make sure the water stops running. He lives with his wife, Lindsay, a human resources manager for a construction firm. They married in June.
"When I told people that MoveOn turned 10 today, many said, 'What? Ten years It feels like it was yesterday,' " says Pariser.
"But to me, it feels like it's been decades since 2001 when I first started getting involved. That was such a different world. In 2001, online organizing wasn't really on anyone's radar. There was no YouTube. No Facebook. No group of liberal bloggers, no Net roots. And Bush? Bush was absolutely ascendant. . . . The Democrats were in absolute disarray."
"Don't get me wrong -- a lot can change between now and November 4th. Obama can lose," Pariser says. "But here's the thing: Independent of the Obama campaign, in our own lives, through our own networks, we're doing everything we can to win this election. Back in 2001, people felt alone, like there was nothing you could do to get involved. Not anymore. People are finding each other. People are communicating. People are pumped up.
"What happens in our in-boxes doesn't just stay there."
LOAD-DATE: October 9, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Helayne Seidman For The Washington Post; MoveOn.org's executive director, Eli Pariser, sits in during a "Call for Change" party in Brooklyn, N.Y. Attendees encourage supporters to volunteer for the Obama campaign.
IMAGE; By Helayne Seidman For The Washington Post; MoveOn members "tell us where to go. They lead us," says Eli Pariser, the group's executive director.
IMAGE; By Kevin Wolf -- Associated Press; Last year, a MoveOn ad lambasted Gen. David Petraeus, here with Fox News's Brit Hume. The GOP condemned the attack on the U.S. commander in Iraq.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 9, 2008 Thursday 9:46 AM EST
Slipping Away?
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 1813 words
HIGHLIGHT: CHICAGO, Oct. 9 -- After watching Barack Obama hit his stride at a boisterous Indiana rally Wednesday, I fired up the old laptop and came to a realization.
CHICAGO, Oct. 9 -- After watching Barack Obama hit his stride at a boisterous Indiana rally Wednesday, I fired up the old laptop and came to a realization.
There is a growing acceptance among conservatives that Obama will probably be the next president of the United States.
You know how it goes after a big debate: Each side praises their guy and picks apart the other candidate. But if there's anyone seriously arguing that John McCain won the second debate in Nashville, I missed it.
Some pundits say McCain did well. Others challenged some of Obama's assertions. But many on the right were candid enough to say that Obama had won the evening. The most pointed grumbling, in fact, was directed at Tom Brokaw.
"I've never seen anyone who thought they won the baseball game walk off the field complaining about the last call by the umpire," Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs told me.
I saw it, too, in the somewhat deflated attitude of the McCain spinners at Belmont University. Gone were the usual overblown declarations of victory. "We remain in a very close race," Steve Schmidt said. "We have a tougher hill to climb than our opponent." In this political climate, he said, "we understand the difficulty of having an R next to your name."
It's more than that the battleground-state polls have broken in Obama's direction. It's that the economy seems to be crumbling, and everyone knows that doesn't favor the Republican nominee after eight years of Bush. The Palin boomlet has faded. The Ayers attacks don't seem to be getting much traction. And there is exactly one more debate for McCain to try to move a mass audience.
I'm not one for premature declarations. A month is a lifetime in politics. Wariness of Obama hasn't disappeared overnight. But in reading the mood of the pols and the pundits, my sense is that they believe Obama is close to clinching this thing.
The Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes says Obama is now seen as a plausible commander-in-chief:
"John McCain had a very strong debate. It's too bad for him that it came on a night when Barack Obama was nearly flawless.
"The debate began with questions on the economy and for thirty minutes Obama answered those questions with the kind of substance that I suspect anxious voters wanted to hear and with exactly the right tone -- empathic, aggravated, and determined. Most important, he spoke to voters in their own language.
"Obama's test in the first debate was to present himself as a plausible president, as a guy who didn't seem out of place on stage at a presidential debate and wouldn't seem out of place delivering a State of the Union address. Much as I'd disagree with the policies in such a speech, it was clear that he passed that test. Tuesday night, his job was to persuade voters -- particularly independents -- not only that he could be president but that he should be president. I suspect polling in the next couple of days will provide evidence that he passed that test, too."
Instapundit agrees that Obama cleared the hurdle:
"In retrospect I have to say that I think Obama did better than it seemed at the time. This morning, my strongest impression is that McCain seemed to be trying too hard to close the deal, and frustrated that it wasn't happening. Obama, despite a lot of stammering and some ill-advised references to Delaware, seemed a lot more comfortable. I think he passed the threshold acceptability test with the audience, which -- for people looking for 'change' -- is probably enough."
David Frum chides his own side:
"Those who press this Ayers line of attack are whipping Republicans and conservatives into a fury that is going to be very hard to calm after November. Is it really wise to send conservatives into opposition in a mood of disdain and fury for the next president, incidentally the first African-American president? Anger is a very bad political adviser. It can isolate us and push us to the extremes at exactly the moment when we ought to be rebuilding, rethinking, regrouping and recruiting."
Even Hugh Hewitt is writing about "President Barack Hoover" -- no compliment, to be sure, but anticipating an Obama administration:
"They like Obama. I like Obama. Nearly everybody likes Obama. But I don't want to put the country through Great Depression 2.0, and I don't want a vast army of academics and social engineers descending on D.C. with plans on how to remake America in their own extremist image."
National Review's Byron York reports the anti-Brokaw sentiment from the GOP side:
" 'This was the worst-moderated debate in the history of presidential debates,' one McCain campaign insider told me just moments after John McCain and Barack Obama left the stage at Belmont University in Nashville. 'The audience and the American people should feel robbed -- that the one opportunity they had to ask questions of the presidential candidates was taken from them by Tom Brokaw.' . . .
"For much of the night Brokaw seemed to ask a question of his own for every question that came from the audience or from the Internet. If McCain's advisers were hoping for a genuine New Hampshire voter-interaction town hall experience, they didn't get it. Of course, neither did Obama, but after the debate Camp Obama didn't seem nearly as unhappy. They didn't see the debate as a true town hall -- the kind of event Obama has declined to participate in with McCain -- but they weren't particularly bothered."
At Power Line, Paul Mirengoff also tut-tuts Tom:
"Brokaw was a dreadful moderator. Instead of inviting the candidates to debate the answers their opponent gave in response to the audience questions, Brokaw interposed his own (often lame) questions. This was an impediment to real debate as well as an unwarranted intrusion by Brokaw into the 'townhall.'
"Naturally, the candidates at times brushed aside Brokaw's question and did what they were there to do -- debate each other in response to audience questions. This was one reason why the candidates kept exceeding the time limit. Brokaw should have (1) realized what was going on and stopped asking his own questions and/or (2) enforced the time limit. He did neither."
The liberal side seems convinced that Barack sealed the deal. The New Republic's John Judis makes the case:
"The second debate between Barack Obama and John McCain did little -- in fact I would say nothing -- to alter the outcome of the election. Outside of McCain's referring to Obama as 'that one,' which suddenly revealed the contempt he feels for the Illinois senator, there were no egregious statements that can be repeated over and over again on talk shows. What the debate proved, I think, is that Obama is becoming more comfortable with the idea of himself as president of the United States, while McCain is becoming ever more crotchety at the prospect of defeat.
"Sometimes, polls ask voters to characterize candidates with a single word. The favorable word most often used to characterize Obama is 'intelligent,' and the unfavorable word most often used to characterize McCain is 'old.' That pretty much fit how the two men appeared. Obama roamed around the stage gracefully. He seemed as much at home with the format as Bill Clinton did in his 1992 town hall debate with George H.W. Bush when he, too, felt victory in his grasp. Many of his answers were elegantly crafted. He would begin with empathizing with the questioner and by saying briefly how he would respond; then he would contrast his approach with McCain's; and he would conclude by elaborating on his response. The effect was to get this criticism across without seeming overly critical or negative.
"McCain, by contrast, was hunched over as he left his chair. He was halting in his answers. He repeatedly cited people and incidents -- such as Theodore Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover or such as his vote on Lebanon in 1983 -- that would have little impact on his listeners except to reinforce the impression of his age. He was grouchy and humorless."
I thought the whole "that one" flap was overblown, that it was just a lame joke by McCain, but the Nation's John Nichols is taking it very seriously:
"Understand what the Republican nominee was doing.
"He did not slip up.
"The McCain campaign and its media acolytes have for weeks been spinning the notion that Obama is running as some sort of messianic character who sees himself in something akin to Biblical terms.
"In internet advertisements, campaign spin and talk-show commentary, Obama is mocked as 'the one.'
"A McCain Web commercial from earlier this year compared Obama with the Nazarene. That ad opened with the announcer declaring, 'It shall be known that in 2008 the world will be blessed. They will call him "The One." '
"The ad proceeds to ridicule Obama's high-minded rhetoric before closing with the narrator telling Americans: 'Barack Obama may be "The One." But is he ready to lead?'
"That commercial has long been recognized as one of the more amateurish cheapshots from a campaign characterized all too frequently by amateurish cheapshots.
"Now, John McCain has brought the cheapest of the cheapshots to the debate stage.
"It was, for a senior senator who has embarrassed himself too many times during this long campaign, a uniquely embarrassing moment."
Arianna says Barack's presence neutralized the McCain assaults:
"Obama was the clear winner. He was centered where McCain was scattered. Forceful where McCain was forced. Presidential where McCain was petulant.
"In the first debate, McCain wouldn't look at Obama. In this one, he referred to him as 'that one.' The contempt was palpable, and unpalatable.
"In the run-up to the debate, McCain lowered himself into the sewer in a desperate attempt to portray Obama as dangerous, untrustworthy, a risk too big to take.
"But Obama's measured reasonableness totally countered that caricature. You could fault Obama for not being particularly inspiring, but you could not miss the rock steady competence he exuded -- authoritatively delivering substantive answers to questions on the economy, health care, taxes, and foreign policy."
The new Tina Brown site, the Daily Beast, is pretty intriguing. Here's her take on the debate:
"As always on TV, the moments were enhanced by the cruel physicality of the screen. The received wisdom so far has been that Town Halls are better for McCain because he can loosen up and relax and make direct contact with what are nowadays called 'real people.' But a Town Hall also meant the public saw a tall lithe young senator primed for the terrors of the future, against a stiff, hunched old guy hobbling around the stage in a body held together by an act of will . . .
"The younger man watched him from his Frank Sinatra stool with the look of a family visitor marveling at the antics of the household's resident crazy uncle.
"This is all horrible to those of us who once fell in love with McCain's flinty heroism and independence."
Another spurned lover from media land.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 9, 2008 Thursday 8:20 AM EST
Slipping Away?
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 1810 words
HIGHLIGHT: CHICAGO, Oct. 9 -- After watching Barack Obama hit his stride at a boisterous Indiana rally Wednesday, I fired up the old laptop and came to a realization.
CHICAGO, Oct. 9 -- After watching Barack Obama hit his stride at a boisterous Indiana rally Wednesday, I fired up the old laptop and came to a realization.
There is a growing acceptance among conservatives that Obama will probably be the next president of the United States.
You know how it goes after a big debate: each side praises their guy and picks apart the other candidate. But if there's anyone seriously arguing that John McCain won the second debate in Nashville, I missed it.
Some pundits say McCain did well. Others challenged some of Obama's assertions. But many on the right were candid enough to say that Obama had won the evening. The most pointed grumbling, in fact, was directed at Tom Brokaw.
"I've never seen anyone who thought they won the baseball game walk off the field complaining about the last call by the umpire," Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs told me.
I saw it, too, in the somewhat deflated attitude of the McCain spinners at Belmont University. Gone were the usual overblown declarations of victory. "We remain in a very close race," Steve Schmidt said. "We have a tougher hill to climb than our opponent." In this political climate, he said, "we understand the difficulty of having an R next to your name."
It's more than that the battleground-state polls have broken in Obama's direction. It's that the economy seems to be crumbling, and everyone knows that doesn't favor the Republican nominee after eight years of Bush. The Palin boomlet has faded. The Ayers attacks don't seem to be getting much traction. And there is exactly one more debate for McCain to try to move a mass audience.
I'm not one for premature declarations. A month is a lifetime in politics. Wariness of Obama hasn't disappeared overnight. But in reading the mood of the pols and the pundits, my sense is that they believe Obama is close to clinching this thing.
The Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes says Obama is now seen as a plausible commander-in-chief:
"John McCain had a very strong debate. It's too bad for him that it came on a night when Barack Obama was nearly flawless.
"The debate began with questions on the economy and for thirty minutes Obama answered those questions with the kind of substance that I suspect anxious voters wanted to hear and with exactly the right tone--empathic, aggravated, and determined. Most important, he spoke to voters in their own language.
"Obama's test in the first debate was to present himself as a plausible president, as a guy who didn't seem out of place on stage at a presidential debate and wouldn't seem out of place delivering a State of the Union address. Much as I'd disagree with the policies in such a speech, it was clear that he passed that test. Tuesday night, his job was to persuade voters--particularly independents--not only that he couldbe president but that he shouldbe president. I suspect polling in the next couple of days will provide evidence that he passed that test, too."
Instapundit agrees that Obama cleared the hurdle:
"In retrospect I have to say that I think Obama did better than it seemed at the time. This morning, my strongest impression is that McCain seemed to be trying too hard to close the deal, and frustrated that it wasn't happening. Obama, despite a lot of stammering and some ill-advised references to Delaware, seemed a lot more comfortable. I think he passed the threshold acceptability test with the audience, which -- for people looking for 'change' -- is probably enough."
David Frum chides his own side:
"Those who press this Ayers line of attack are whipping Republicans and conservatives into a fury that is going to be very hard to calm after November. Is it really wise to send conservatives into opposition in a mood of disdain and fury for the next president, incidentally the first African-American president? Anger is a very bad political adviser. It can isolate us and push us to the extremes at exactly the moment when we ought to be rebuilding, rethinking, regrouping and recruiting."
Even Hugh Hewitt is writing about "President Barack Hoover"--no compliment, to be sure, but anticipating an Obama administration:
"They like Obama. I like Obama. Nearly everybody likes Obama. But I don't want to put the country through Great Depression 2.0, and I don't want a vast army of academics and social engineers descending on D.C. with plans on how to remake America in their own extremist image."
National Review's Byron York reports the anti-Brokaw sentiment from the GOP side:
" 'This was the worst-moderated debate in the history of presidential debates,' one McCain campaign insider told me just moments after John McCain and Barack Obama left the stage at Belmont University in Nashville. 'The audience and the American people should feel robbed -- that the one opportunity they had to ask questions of the presidential candidates was taken from them by Tom Brokaw.' . . .
"For much of the night Brokaw seemed to ask a question of his own for every question that came from the audience or from the Internet. If McCain's advisers were hoping for a genuine New Hampshire voter-interaction town hall experience, they didn't get it. Of course, neither did Obama, but after the debate Camp Obama didn't seem nearly as unhappy. They didn't see the debate as a true town hall -- the kind of event Obama has declined to participate in with McCain -- but they weren't particularly bothered."
At Power Line, Paul Mirengoff also tut-tuts Tom:
"Brokaw was a dreadful moderator. Instead of inviting the candidates to debate the answers their opponent gave in response to the audience questions, Brokaw interposed his own (often lame) questions. This was an impediment to real debate as well as an unwarranted intrusion by Brokaw into the 'townhall.'
"Naturally, the candidates at times brushed aside Brokaw's question and did what they were there to do -- debate each other in response to audience questions. This was one reason why the candidates kept exceeding the time limit. Brokaw should have (1) realized what was going on and stopped asking his own questions and/or (2) enforced the time limit. He did neither."
The liberal side seems convinced that Barack sealed the deal. The New Republic's John Judis makes the case:
"The second debate between Barack Obama and John McCain did little--in fact I would say nothing--to alter the outcome of the election. Outside of McCain's referring to Obama as 'that one,' which suddenly revealed the contempt he feels for the Illinois senator, there were no egregious statements that can be repeated over and over again on talk shows. What the debate proved, I think, is that Obama is becoming more comfortable with the idea of himself as president of the United States, while McCain is becoming ever more crotchety at the prospect of defeat.
"Sometimes, polls ask voters to characterize candidates with a single word. The favorable word most often used to characterize Obama is 'intelligent,' and the unfavorable word most often used to characterize McCain is 'old.' That pretty much fit how the two men appeared. Obama roamed around the stage gracefully. He seemed as much at home with the format as Bill Clinton did in his 1992 town hall debate with George H.W. Bush when he, too, felt victory in his grasp. Many of his answers were elegantly crafted. He would begin with empathizing with the questioner and by saying briefly how he would respond; then he would contrast his approach with McCain's; and he would conclude by elaborating on his response. The effect was to get this criticism across without seeming overly critical or negative.
"McCain, by contrast, was hunched over as he left his chair. He was halting in his answers. He repeatedly cited people and incidents-such as Theodore Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover or such as his vote on Lebanon in 1983--that would have little impact on his listeners except to reinforce the impression of his age. He was grouchy and humorless."
I thought the whole "that one" flap was overblown, that it was just a lame joke by McCain, but the Nation's John Nichols is taking it very seriously:
"Understand what the Republican nominee was doing.
"He did not slip up.
"The McCain campaign and its media acolytes have for weeks been spinning the notion that Obama is running as some sort of messianic character who sees himself in something akin to Biblical terms.
"In internet advertisements, campaign spin and talk-show commentary, Obama is mocked as 'the one.'
"A McCain Web commercial from earlier this year compared Obama with the Nazarene. That ad opened with the announcer declaring, 'It shall be known that in 2008 the world will be blessed. They will call him "The One." '
"The ad proceeds to ridicule Obama's high-minded rhetoric before closing with the narrator telling Americans: 'Barack Obama may be "The One." But is he ready to lead?'
"That commercial has long been recognized as one of the more amateurish cheapshots from a campaign characterized all too frequently by amateurish cheapshots.
"Now, John McCain has brought the cheapest of the cheapshots to the debate stage.
"It was, for a senior senator who has embarrassed himself too many times during this long campaign, a uniquely embarrassing moment."
Arianna says Barack's presence neutralized the McCain assaults:
"Obama was the clear winner. He was centered where McCain was scattered. Forceful where McCain was forced. Presidential where McCain was petulant.
"In the first debate, McCain wouldn't look at Obama. In this one, he referred to him as 'that one.' The contempt was palpable, and unpalatable.
"In the run-up to the debate, McCain lowered himself into the sewer in a desperate attempt to portray Obama as dangerous, untrustworthy, a risk too big to take.
"But Obama's measured reasonableness totally countered that caricature. You could fault Obama for not being particularly inspiring, but you could not miss the rock steady competence he exuded -- authoritatively delivering substantive answers to questions on the economy, health care, taxes, and foreign policy."
The new Tina Brown site, the Daily Beast, is pretty intriguing. Here's her take on the debate:
"As always on TV, the moments were enhanced by the cruel physicality of the screen. The received wisdom so far has been that Town Halls are better for McCain because he can loosen up and relax and make direct contact with what are nowadays called 'real people.' But a Town Hall also meant the public saw a tall lithe young senator primed for the terrors of the future, against a stiff, hunched old guy hobbling around the stage in a body held together by an act of will . . .
"The younger man watched him from his Frank Sinatra stool with the look of a family visitor marveling at the antics of the household's resident crazy uncle.
"This is all horrible to those of us who once fell in love with McCain's flinty heroism and independence."
Another spurned lover from media land.
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The New York Times
October 8, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
INSIDE THE TIMES: October 8, 2008
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 2252 words
International
GRAPPLING WITH FINANCIAL TURMOIL,
European Union Remains at Odds
As the financial crisis radiates around the globe, some of the 27 nations that make up the European Union have broken ranks, opting for self-interested policies to protect their own citizens and banks first. Although finance ministers agreed to take a few steps to shore up markets, they did little to dispel growing doubts that the European Union could grapple collectively with a common problem. PAGE A6
U.N. FAULTS BIOFUEL SUBSIDIES
The United Nations food agency called for a review of biofuel subsides and policies, noting that they had contributed significantly to rising food prices and hunger in poor countries. With policies and subsidies to encourage biofuel production in place in much of the developed world, farmers often find it more profitable to plant crops for fuel than food. PAGE A13
TURTLE FAILS TO PRODUCE OFFSPRING
A complicated attempt by scientists in southern China to save a species, the Yangtze giant soft-shell turtle, by mating two elderly turtles ended without producing any offspring. Xie Yan, the China program director for the Wildlife Conservation Society, said she remained hopeful, despite the setback this year. PAGE A13
U.S. TO KEEP TROOPS IN KOSOVO
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the United States would maintain its troop presence in Kosovo until at least late next year and would also continue to provide the country with military equipment and training. Mr. Gates's visit to Kosovo was the first by a United States cabinet member since the country declared independence in February in defiance of Serbia and Russia. PAGE A12
PUTIN STARS IN MARTIAL ARTS VIDEO
Just weeks after Russia's state-run media reported that Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin had saved a news crew from a wild tiger, he is flexing his muscles in an instructional martial arts video. The video is part of a growing media library highlighting Mr. Putin's masculinity that includes episodes of the former K.G.B. agent bare-chested on a fishing expedition and in flight in a fighter jet. PAGE A13
CASE IN ALBANIA SPURS SPECULATION
The investigation into the suspicious death of a whistle-blower in Albania appears to be nearing its conclusion, but with little hope of quelling the doubts surrounding the case. The man, Kosta Trebicka, uncovered evidence of public corruption in the export of ammunition from the Communist era, which led to arrests and charges. He was found dead last month and the inquiry into his death has been anything but routine. PAGE A11
National
GAY COUPLES RUSH TO THE ALTAR
In California Before Vote
Since the California Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in May, there has been a rush of gay couples marrying. In the three months ended Sept. 17, California had more same-sex marriages than Massachusetts had in four years. Some say the surge in marriage license applications came in part because of the looming vote on Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to outlaw same-sex marriage. PAGE A14
QUESTIONING A PROSECUTION WITNESS
In the trial of Senator Ted Stevens, his defense lawyer characterized Bill Allen, the prosecution's chief witness and a longtime friend of the senator, as someone who betrayed a friend to protect his fortune. Under questioning by the defense lawyer, Mr. Allen acknowledged that ''an explicit part of the contract'' to sell Veco, the oil service company he owned, ''was to cooperate with the government'' because the buyers were concerned about whether a corruption investigation he was involved in could damage the company. PAGE A15
TWO CASES ON POLICE PROCEDURE
The Supreme Court heard two cases involving the Fourth Amendment. In one case, a man's arrest came as a result of false information from the computer files of the police in a neighboring county. In the other, cocaine was found in a man's car after he was arrested and locked in the back of a police squad car. The central question in both cases is the same: does the rule that requires the suppression of some evidence produced by police misconduct still make sense? PAGE A15
NEW WARNINGS ON COUGH MEDICINE
Companies that make pediatric cough and cold medicines said they would voluntarily change their products' labels to say that they should not be given to children younger than four and that products with certain antihistamines would have added language warning parents not to use them to sedate a child or make a child feel sleepy. The Food and Drug Administration said it supported the label changes and would continue assessing the safety and effectiveness of the products in children of all ages. PAGE A14
COPING WITH A FAMILY'S SLAYING
News of a murder-suicide in Los Angeles that ended with six relatives dead spread through the tight-knit Indian-American community in which they lived. The police said that the reported killer, Karthick Rajaram, confessed in two letters, one addressed to the police and one to two friends. ''I can't tell you how I feel,'' a family friend said. ''You have to open my heart and see the feeling.'' PAGE A15
Business
ICELAND ASKS RUSSIA FOR AID
As Its Economy Stumbles
Iceland's banks, once robust, are suddenly wobbly, and the government, facing what it called ''national bankruptcy,'' took extraordinary measures by taking control of the country's second-largest bank -- its second takeover in two weeks. The government also announced that it had asked Russia for a loan of 4 billion euros, about $5.5 billion, to keep its economy afloat. PAGE B1
A.I.G.'S SPENDING HABITS
On a second day of Congressional hearings in Washington, lawmakers were informed of the spending habits at the American International Group. Only a week after the insurance giant received an $85 billion federal bailout, one of its subsidiaries held a retreat for its top sales agents at an exclusive beach resort where expenses totaled $442,000 for one week. PAGE B1
FORMER UBS EXECUTIVE SETTLES
David Aufhauser, above, the former general counsel at UBS's investment bank, reached a $6.5 million settlement with the New York attorney general on accusations of insider trading in auction-rate securities. Andrew Cuomo, New York's attorney general, said his office was expanding its investigation into financial derivatives beyond auction-rate securities. PAGE B6
PFIZER ACCUSED OF SPINNING DATA
Experts who reviewed thousands of documents from Pfizer said the drug maker manipulated the way scientific studies were published to help sales of Neurontin, its epilepsy drug, to treat other disorders. PAGE B4
New York
TREMORS ON WALL STREET
Leave Harlem Shaken
Harlem's recent resurgence was driven in part by the banks and Wall Street firms that gave business loans as well as loans for large commercial developments. The collapse of some of those financial institutions means that Harlem's growth will become much more difficult -- and also that the neighborhood will lose millions of dollars in charitable contributions from those companies. PAGE A21
CRANE COMPANY ACCUSED OF BRIBES
In indictments unsealed in State Supreme Court in Manhattan, prosecutors said that New York City's chief crane inspector conspired for more than a decade with a Long Island-based crane company to ensure that its cranes were certified without receiving valid inspections and that its crane operators had an easy time acquiring licenses. The indictments followed two crane collapses. PAGE A22
Arts
TINA BROWN, EDITOR OF NOTE,
Newly Perched on the Web
A new Web site had its debut this week, thedailybeast.com. But with more than 180 million of the things now online by some estimates, a new one would seem like just another digital drop in an ocean of zeroes and ones. Unless it's Tina Brown doing the dropping. Promising rigorous editing of the culture for complicated times, the Beast is aiming to be a smaller, less chaotic version of the World Wide Web itself, David Carr writes. PAGE C1
GUNS 'N' POSES: THUGS IN LONDON
Guy Ritchie reshuffles a worn-out deck in ''RocknRolla,'' a return to the shady stylings that characterized his earlier flicks, ''Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels'' and ''Snatch.'' There are the usual villains, double-crosses, right hooks, ha-ha scenes of grim torture and the requisite femme fatale. But there isn't much to chew on or mull over. The violence has no passion, no oomph, no sense of real or even feigned purpose, Manohla Dargis writes. PAGE C1
NEW TAKES ON OLD THEMES
''The Wrestler,'' which closes the New York Film Festival, was directed by Darren Aronofsky and stars Michael O'Rourke whose simple and cartoonish character might be described as the Rocky Balboa of professional wrestling. But unlike the ''Rocky'' films, ''The Wrestler'' is largely free of pandering sentimentality and phony optimism, and acknowledges that bodies get old and break down despite the most rigorous training, Stephen Holden writes. PAGE C1
In a Galaxy Far Away C3
Dining Out
UNITING AROUND FOOD
To Save an Ailing Town
The tiny town of Hardwick, Vt., (pop. 3,000) used to be such a den of vice that it went by the name Little Chicago, and its Main Street was dotted with vacant stores. Internet pioneers, artisans and agricultural entrepreneurs are trying to find investors and betting that farming can save their hardscrabble hamlet. PAGE D1
A LOOPHOLE IN LABELING LAWS
A law has gone into effect that requires retailers to label the country of origin of certain food products. The aim is to allow consumers to avoid products from countries like China, where food safety has been a problem. But critics point to a loophole and a lack of resources for enforcement that they say may make the mandate ineffective. PAGE D3
Eric Asimov: Alsace Wine D5
Sports
NO LONGER ON THE SIDELINES,
But Still Coaching
Joe Paterno, 81, the longtime football coach at Penn State, has long faced questions about when he may retire. They have gotten louder as he has been hampered by a leg injury and has spent more time coaching games from the press box. But Paterno plays down the significance of being on the sidelines. ''Actually, as far as making a significant contribution on the strategy side and on the tactical side, you're better off upstairs,'' he said. PAGE B20
PLAYERS TACKLE CHILDHOOD OBESITY
The N.F.L., with all its beefy linemen on the far side of 300 pounds, would seem an unlikely standard-bearer in the fight against childhood obesity. But experts say athletes present powerful body image role models, particularly for boys. And so players have rebuilt parks and conducted football clinics in support of Play 60, an effort to encourage children to be active for at least an hour a day. Page B22
AFTER STORM, TULANE BOUNCES BACK
Tulane University's athletic department almost did not survive after the campus and its sports facilities were ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. But the disaster galvanized the student body, and its community was unified around the teams. ''I think in a lot of ways, Katrina might have helped because it told people New Orleans is worth caring about,'' said the president of the university's booster club. PAGE B20
WINNING WITH A YOUNG FOUNDATION
If the Red Sox beat the Tampa Bay Rays to advance to the World Series and win their second championship in two years, it will be in large measure because of some shrewd moves by the team's front office as well and the performance of some of its young, home-grown players. ''They prepared us for what the Red Sox are and what the Red Sox want to be,'' said Dustin Pedroia, the team's young second baseman. ''It's winning.'' PAGE B19
Obituaries
CHARLES WRIGHT, 76
His three books describe a loner's life on the fringes of New York society, and his protagonists are stand-ins for himself, working at low-level jobs, living in low-rent apartments, hanging out with low-life personalities. ''The Messenger'' was the best received of the three, possibly because it was less specifically about being black than about being an outsider. PAGE B16
RUEDI RYMANN, 75
He was a master yodeler, and a song of his, ''Dr Schacher Seppli,'' was called by a Swiss television series the greatest Swiss hit of all. PAGE B16
Editorial
ATTACK POLITICS
John McCain and Barack Obama have their second presidential debate, after Mr. McCain embarked on one of the ugliest campaigns in memory. PAGE A30
THE STATES NEED HELP
Wall Street's crisis is walloping state finances across the country. State government debt is about the safest debt on the market. Still, over the last few weeks, states have been shut out of the credit markets like everybody else. PAGE A30
LESS TO WORRY ABOUT
In 1982, Congress asked the Army Corps of Engineers to study the feasibility of pumping water from the Great Lakes to arid parts of the Midwest. That terrible idea went nowhere, but ever since, the states that border the lakes have lived in fear that somebody would steal or buy their water. Those worries are over. PAGE A30
Op-Ed
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
During the vice-presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin said that paying taxes was not considered patriotic in middle-class America. What an awful statement. PAGE A31
THIRD TIME'S THE HARM
Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York is making a mistake by trying to push through legislation to alter term limits to enable him to run for a third term, Randy M. Mastro, a former New York City deputy mayor, argues in an Op-Ed article. PAGE A31
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The New York Times
October 8, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Politics of Attack
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL; Pg. 30
LENGTH: 632 words
It is a sorry fact of American political life that campaigns get ugly, often in their final weeks. But Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin have been running one of the most appalling campaigns we can remember.
They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent's record -- into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia. Senator Barack Obama has taken some cheap shots at Mr. McCain, but there is no comparison.
Despite the occasional slip (referring to Mr. Obama's ''cronies'' and calling him ''that one''), Mr. McCain tried to take a higher road in Tuesday night's presidential debate. It was hard to keep track of the number of time he referred to his audience as ''my friends.'' But apart from promising to buy up troubled mortgages as president, he offered no real answers for how he plans to solve the country's deep economic crisis. He is unable or unwilling to admit that the Republican assault on regulation was to blame.
Ninety minutes of forced cordiality did not erase the dismal ugliness of his campaign in recent weeks, nor did it leave us with much hope that he would not just return to the same dismal ugliness on Wednesday.
Ms. Palin, in particular, revels in the attack. Her campaign rallies have become spectacles of anger and insult. ''This is not a man who sees America as you see it and how I see America,'' Ms. Palin has taken to saying.
That line follows passages in Ms. Palin's new stump speech in which she twists Mr. Obama's ill-advised but fleeting and long-past association with William Ayers, founder of the Weather Underground and confessed bomber. By the time she's done, she implies that Mr. Obama is right now a close friend of Mr. Ayers -- and sympathetic to the violent overthrow of the government. The Democrat, she says, ''sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country.''
Her demagoguery has elicited some frightening, intolerable responses. A recent Washington Post report said at a rally in Florida this week a man yelled ''kill him!'' as Ms. Palin delivered that line and others shouted epithets at an African-American member of a TV crew.
Mr. McCain's aides haven't even tried to hide their cynical tactics, saying they were ''going negative'' in hopes of shifting attention away from the financial crisis -- and by implication Mr. McCain's stumbling response.
We certainly expected better from Mr. McCain, who once showed withering contempt for win-at-any-cost politics. He was driven out of the 2000 Republican primaries by this sort of smear, orchestrated by some of the same people who are now running his campaign.
And the tactic of guilt by association is perplexing, since Mr. McCain has his own list of political associates he would rather forget. We were disappointed to see the Obama campaign air an ad (held for just this occasion) reminding voters of Mr. McCain's involvement in the Keating Five savings-and-loan debacle, for which he was reprimanded by the Senate. That episode at least bears on Mr. McCain's claims to be the morally pure candidate and his argument that he alone is capable of doing away with greed, fraud and abuse.
In a way, we should not be surprised that Mr. McCain has stooped so low, since the debate showed once again that he has little else to talk about. He long ago abandoned his signature issues of immigration reform and global warming; his talk of ''victory'' in Iraq has little to offer a war-weary nation; and his Reagan-inspired ideology of starving government and shredding regulation lies in tatters on Wall Street.
But surely, Mr. McCain and his team can come up with a better answer to that problem than inciting more division, anger and hatred.
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The New York Times
October 8, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Mud Pies For 'That One'
BYLINE: By MAUREEN DOWD
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 31
LENGTH: 811 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
Some of John McCain's friends, from the good old days when he talked straight, feared that his Greek tragedy would be that he would be defeated by George Bush twice: once in 2000, because of W.'s no-conscience campaigning, and again in 2008, because of W.'s no-brains governing.
But if McCain loses, he will have contributed to his own downfall by failing to live up to his personal standard of honor.
John McCain has long been torn between wanting to succeed and serving a higher cause. Right now, the drive to succeed is trumping any loftier aspirations. He cynically picked a running mate with less care than theater directors give to picking a leading actor's understudy. And he has been running a seamy campaign originally designed by the bad seed of conservative politics, Lee Atwater.
It was adapted in 2000 in Atwater's home state of South Carolina by Atwater acolytes in W.'s camp to harpoon McCain with rumors that he had fathered out of wedlock a black baby (as opposed to adopting a Bangladeshi infant girl in wedlock). Sulfurous Atwater-style rumor-mongering by Bush supporters -- that McCain had come home from a Hanoi tiger cage with snakes in his head -- aimed to stop him during that primary after he had zoomed in New Hampshire.
Atwater relished teaching rich, white Republicans to feign a connection to the common man so they could get in office and economically undermine the common man. In the 1988 campaign, the Machiavellian ran to help George Bush Sr. defeat Michael Dukakis with this unholy quintet of charges:
The Democrat was a '60s-style liberal who would raise taxes and take away guns. He was weak and would not protect the country militarily. He was a member of the elite ''Harvard Yard's boutique.'' He had a foreign-sounding name and was not on ''the American side.'' He was on the side of the Scary Black Man.
Sound familiar?
Certainly, at some level, John McCain must be disgusted with himself for using the tactics perfected by the same crowd that used these tactics to derail him in 2000. He's now curmudgeonly, even hostile, toward the press -- the group he used to spend hours with every day and jokingly describe as his base.
He unleashed Sarah Palin to slime their opponent and suggested that the Democrat with the foreign-sounding name who came from the Harvard Yard boutique is not on the American side.
Campaigning last weekend, Palin cast their Democratic rival as ''someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country.''
The woman is sounding more Cheney than Cheney. Palin said that Obama's relationship with the former Weatherman William Ayers proved that he did not have the ''truthfulness and judgment'' to be president. Asked by William Kristol if the Rev. Jeremiah Wright should be an issue, she said, ''I don't know why that association isn't discussed more.''
Atwater gleefully tried to paint Willie Horton as Dukakis's running mate. With a black man running, it's even easier for Atwater's disciple running McCain's campaign to warn that white Americans should not open the door to the dangerous Other, or ''That One,'' as McCain referred to Obama in Tuesday night's debate. (A cross between ''The One'' and ''That Woman.'')
On Monday, McCain made Obama, who has been campaigning for almost two years now, sound like an ominous intruder, questioning his character and motives, telling a New Mexico crowd that ''even at this late hour in the campaign, there are essential things we don't know about Senator Obama ...
''All people want to know is: What has this man ever actually accomplished in government? What does he plan for America? In short: Who is the real Barack Obama?''
The new McCain TV ad, ''Dangerous,'' calls Obama ''dishonorable,'' ''dangerous'' and ''too risky for America.''
McCain aides have been blunt in their need to change the subject from the economy. But, as with Bush Senior's re-election campaign, slithery character attacks don't scare as well when Americans are already scared about keeping their jobs and retirement savings. Maybe that's why McCain didn't bring up Ayers or Wright during the debate, instead leaving it to Sarah Barracuda.
Palin finally took questions on Tuesday from her traveling press corps on her campaign plane. Asked if she thought Senator Obama was dishonest, McCain's Mean Girl meandered:
''I'm not saying he's dishonest, but in terms of judgment, in terms of being able to answer a question forthrightly, it has two different parts to this. The judgment and the truthfulness and just being able to answer very candidly a simple question about when did you know him, how did you know him, is there still -- has there been an association continued since '02 or '05, I know I've read a couple different stories. I think it's relevant.''
Of course she does.
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The Washington Post
October 8, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
Obama Flexing Financial Muscle With TV Spending
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A05
LENGTH: 763 words
Sen. Barack Obama is outspending Sen. John McCain by nearly 3 to 1 on television advertising in the final weeks of the presidential campaign, a financial edge that is almost certainly contributing to the Democrat's momentum in key battleground states.
From Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, Obama spent more than $20 million on TV ads in 17 states, including more than $3 million in Pennsylvania alone and more than $2 million each in Florida, Michigan and Ohio. In the same time frame, McCain spent a total of $7.2 million in 15 states. Even including Republican National Committee's $5.3 million in independent expenditures in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama outspent the combined GOP forces by roughly $8 million in the past week alone.
Obama has used the money to hammer McCain as both a clone of President Bush and out of touch on key domestic issues, most notably the economy. The spending edge has coincided with the collapse of the financial industry and a refocusing by voters on the economy to turn the election from a nail-biter to one in which the Democrat has moved into a discernible lead.
Obama's fundraising machine has continued to churn in recent months, while McCain ceded the right to raise any more money when he accepted $84 million in public funds for his campaign. Obama brought in $67.5 million in August alone and ended that month with more than $77 million on hand. (Reports for September are not due at the Federal Election Commission until Oct. 20.)
Obama's ad-spending strategy has been based on the idea of straining the GOP's cash reserves by forcing McCain to devote resources to nontraditional battlegrounds such as Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia.
That decision paid off for Obama last week when McCain pulled his costly TV commercials in Michigan. In the past week, Obama spent nearly $2.2 million on ads in Michigan, compared with $642,000 for McCain and just over $1 million from the RNC.
A detailed look at ad spending over the past week shows clearly how the Democrat is using his financial advantage. Obama outspent McCain in 13 of the 15 states where both candidates were on television, in some cases drastically.
In Florida, where recent polling suggests Obama has surged, the senator from Illinois spent more than $2.8 million on TV ads in the past week while the senator from Arizona spent $623,000.
In North Carolina, Obama dropped approximately $1.5 million on commercials last week while McCain spent only $137,000. Some polls now show the race in that state, which Bush won by 12 points in 2004, as a dead heat.
Even in Pennsylvania, a state where McCain is now focusing much of his time and energy, Obama's spending advantage is massive. Obama spent a little more than $3 million on ads in the Keystone State last month, compared with McCain's $1.2 million and an additional $807,000 from the RNC.
In Virginia, which has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1964, Obama's pronounced spending advantage is also being felt. Obama spent $1.6 million on ads in the commonwealth last week while the combined forces of McCain and the RNC spent $909,000.
Only in Minnesota and Iowa did McCain have a spending edge on television over Obama in the past week.
In Minnesota, the McCain campaign spent $377,000 on TV ads, far more than the $196,000 Obama spent in the same period. Republicans saw a significant uptick in their poll numbers in Minnesota after the party's convention in St. Paul in August, although most recent surveys show Obama reclaiming a statistically significant lead. History is also against McCain in the state, as no Republican presidential nominee has carried Minnesota since 1972.
In Iowa, McCain spent $297,000 on television, compared with $224,000 for Obama. That's rough parity in a state where polling shows Obama with a comfortable lead. McCain has spent considerable time, attention and money in Iowa, however, a strategy that has baffled many in the Obama campaign. Iowa went for then-Vice President Al Gore by 4,000 votes in 2000, but Bush carried the state by 10,000 votes four years later.
Spending by the RNC's independent expenditure arm has kept McCain within shouting distance of Obama in several crucial states, including Ohio and Wisconsin.
In Ohio, Obama spent $2.86 million on television last week while the combination of McCain ($1.1 million) and the RNC ($1.66 million) gave Democrats just a $100,000 edge. Democrats had a spending edge about twice that big in Wisconsin, where Obama spent $1.24 million, compared with $1.03 million for McCain and the RNC.
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The Washington Post
October 8, 2008 Wednesday
Met 2 Edition
Both Candidates Misleading TV Viewers With Attacks
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 730 words
THE ADS
From the Obama-Biden campaign, "The Subject":
He's out of ideas. Out of touch. And running out of time. But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down. With smears that have been proven false. Why? McCain's own campaign admits that if the election is about the economy, he's going to lose. But as Americans lose their jobs, homes and savings, it's time for a president who'll change the economy. Not change the subject.
From the McCain-Palin campaign, "Hypo":
Announcer: Who is Barack Obama?
KMOV-TV anchor: Obama's presidential campaign is asking Missouri law enforcement to target anyone who lies or runs a misleading television ad.
Announcer: How hypocritical. Obama's Social Security attack was called "a falsehood." His health-care attack . . . "misleading." Obama's stem cell attack . . . "not true." Barack Obama. He promised better. He lied.
ANALYSIS
Both presidential candidates are using news organizations and fact-checking groups to accuse each other of airing false advertising, though only McCain goes so far as to call his opponent a liar.
Both ignore accusations that their own ad campaigns and public statements have included misrepresentations and falsehoods, pretending that only their opponent is hurling bogus allegations. McCain's commercials have been accused of falsehoods more frequently, although Obama has begun to catch up in the last two weeks.
Obama's ad -- which includes the now-obligatory shot of McCain with President Bush and the accusation that he's "out of touch" -- is on solid ground in accusing the senator from Arizona of trying to change the subject from the economy. McCain's own aides have been quoted as saying he needs to turn the page from the financial crisis and concentrate on attacking Obama's character. It is not accurate, however, to say that McCain has "no plan" for the economy, as he has made a series of proposals involving tax cuts, health coverage and energy.
The "smears" line involves McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, who said last weekend that Obama has been "palling around with terrorists." As the ad notes, CNN called that "false," and the Associated Press said it was "a deliberate attempt to smear Obama." The reference is to onetime Weather Underground bomber William Ayers, a slight acquaintance of the senator from Illinois who has served on two boards with him. A CNN correspondent said "there's no indication that Ayers and Obama are palling around or they have had an ongoing relationship in the past three years."
By saying McCain is "running out of time" and trying to "change the subject," the ad suggests that the Republican's attacks are born of political desperation and not to be trusted.
McCain's ad is based on the accurate notion that Obama long talked about running a campaign that moved beyond petty politics, thereby rendering him vulnerable to the accusation that he is practicing old-style attack politics.
The charge that Obama is being hypocritical rests on a St. Louis television report that the Democrat had asked Missouri law enforcement officials to target campaigns that run misleading ads. But the correspondent for KMOV-TV was quoted by a local newspaper as saying that Republicans had twisted his story out of context, and that he had meant only that Obama's allies would call attention to questionable ads.
As cited in the ad, Factcheck.org called one Obama commercial "a falsehood sure to frighten seniors who rely on their Social Security checks." In that ad, Obama described the "Bush-McCain privatization plan" as "cutting Social Security benefits in half." McCain has made no such proposal; the Obama ad is based on the president's failed 2005 plan. Factcheck said another Obama spot was "misleading" in accusing McCain, based on an article he wrote, of wanting to "do the same to our health care" that "Wall Street deregulation" has done to the banking industry.
ABC's Jake Tapper, as the spot notes, criticized an Obama radio ad as untrue in claiming that McCain is against stem cell research without noting that McCain had dropped his earlier opposition. But Tapper also examined a McCain radio ad on the subject and concluded: "Both candidates mislead voters by glossing over or ignoring inconvenient facts." The selective nature of both these ads underscores that judgment.
Video of these ads can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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October 8, 2008 Wednesday 2:15 PM EST
Election 2008: Both Sides With Tucker Carlson and Ana Marie Cox
BYLINE: Tucker Carlson and Ana Marie Cox, MSNBC Senior Campaign Correspondent; Time Magazine Blogger, Radar Magazine Washington Editor, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4115 words
HIGHLIGHT: Conservative MSNBC senior campaign correspondent Tucker Carlson and liberal Radar Magazine Washington editor and Time Magazine blogger Ana Marie Cox were online Wednesday, Oct. 8 at 2:15 p.m. ET (and every Wednesday afternoon through Nov. 5) to dissect and debate the issues and latest developments in the 2008 campaigns.
Conservative MSNBC senior campaign correspondent Tucker Carlson and liberal Radar Magazine Washington editor and Time Magazine blogger Ana Marie Cox were online Wednesday, Oct. 8 at 2:15 p.m. ET (and every Wednesday afternoon through Nov. 5) to dissect and debate the issues and latest developments in the 2008 campaigns.
The transcript follows.
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Ana Marie Cox: Hi everyone, sorry I'm late. Am right now coming to you from a McCain-Palin rally going on in PA. It is VERY VERY LOUD.
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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Ana and Tucker -- thanks for doing this joint chat. There seems to be some discussion today about the town hall setting and how it benefits (or doesn't benefit) the candidates. For someone who was supposedly "owns" that format, I thought John McCain looked uneasy and uncomfortable last night -- like he couldn't find a place to sort of "be" -- and that made it hard for me to focus on what he was saying. Barack Obama does get a little "lecturely" sometimes, but it seemed that his decision to stand in one place and address the questioner worked better. Also, why was McCain so quick to take off at the end instead of schmoozing, as Obama did?
Ana Marie Cox: Well, to be fair, that was not entirely the "town hall" format that McCain does best at -- and it was full of people who are far less "undecided" than those who usually show up at a McCain town hall. (Even a marginally more friendly audience, and perhaps one not so intensely focused on the Important Task Before Them, would have given McCain's terrible jokes the benefit of a chuckle.) And having Obama on the stage did make McCain's entirely typical peregrinations seem less like the movements of an energetic, restless mind than of a jumpy old man. So while I think there are quite a few places where I think McCain stumbled purely on content matters -- "fining" people for not having health care -- I'm not personally that bothered by his physical presentation.
As for leaving early: Well, hm. I don't think he likes the guy much.
_______________________
San Francisco: To Ana Marie Cox: What's it like to travel with the Saracuda and Hannity?
Ana Marie Cox: We only just picked up Saracuda, so we'll see. Hannity seemed mildly confused by the prevalence of actual working journalists. I know how he feels!
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Laurel, Md.: Why are the parties so partisanly divided when their two residential candidates hardly disagreed on any issues last night?
Ana Marie Cox: If it appeared that there was no real disagreement between the two candidates last night then I think the Obama strategy is working. There are, to my mind, enormous differences between the two candidates. Judges, abortion, the war, legislation for equal pay -- and temperament, too: Obama is unapologetically "cooler" in both the "hip and cool" way and in the "less emotive way." In a person and I friend, I sort of prefer more emotional types like McCain. Not sure if I want that in a president.
As for why we're so mired in partisanship. I think this cycle there's a great deal of pleasure being taken by those on the left in "getting back" at the Rs. Turnabout is fair play. Or not, as the case may be.
_______________________
Ana Marie Cox: Wow, Tucker has a lot of fans.
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Washington: Hey Tucker -- I really miss your show on MSNBC. My news watching actually has plummeted since it went off the air because other shows tend to be a bit more shouty and hysteric. Anyway, what approach do you think the McCain campaign should adopt here on out? This "who is Obama, really" approach really doesn't seem like it will be too successful. I think if he focused on the issues directly, America actually agrees with his positions more so than Obama ... but his presentation just seems to be off. Do you think his campaign can turn their approach around, or do you think this is what we are going to get until Election Day?
Tucker Carlson: I don't think there's a lot McCain can do to turn this around. It's fundamentally a Democratic year. Still, he has to try, and I agree that his attemps to define Obama as scary have mostly failed. The problem is, Obama doesn't look scary. He comes off as a fairly decent, moderate guy. Hard to hate, I'd say. The best argument McCain has is about divided government: Do you really want to hand everything over to the Democratic Party? In other words, Obama's fine, if a bit callow. But Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid? Frightening. McCain might get somehwere with that.
_______________________
Denver: Is the election over? Is it too early to say that if McCain had to pullout of Michigan, if Florida is in trouble and if poll numbers hold in Ohio, the dominoes falling in Obama's favor? Also, Tucker, what happened to the bow ties?
Ana Marie Cox: It's not over. I know it seems like things can't change, but they sort of always do.
I will let Tucker speak for his ties. That are around his neck and not to unrepentant terrorists.
_______________________
Atlanta: Tucker: How many percentage points does Obama gain from the absurd bias in both the news media and popular culture?
Tucker Carlson: No idea. Hard to measure. But when pretty much the entire press corps decides it's in love with you -- and not in a platonic way, either -- it can't hurt. Obama ought to be grateful.
Ana Marie Cox: Obviously, it can't be measured that clearly. What's more, I think press has "fallen in love" with Obama for the same reasons a (narrow) majority of Americans have, so at the moment I think it's hard to untangle if the positive coverage leads to points or the points and positive coverage stem from the same AMAZING CHARISMA.
But I don't think you can argue that Obama is not receiving enormous benefit of the doubt from the press, even if the studies show the quantitative amount of negative coverage of Obama is higher.
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Ayers: I'm curious if it is fair to label Obama's judgment suspect, and even go so far as to say that he's sympathetic to terrorists, because he sat on boards with former terrorists. Why wouldn't it be fair to point out that Reagan friend Walter Annenberg also sat on the same board with Obama and Ayers? Clearly Annenberg and the other Republicans on that board hate America and also sympathize with terrorists.
Ana Marie Cox: I think it's fair to call Obama's judgment into questions but if Ayers is the best example they can come up with, then I'm afraid I'm not... that afraid. The McCain camp argues -- now at least -- that the problem isn't the connection itself (nice timing on that, what with the Obama push on Keating), but that Obama has been less than open about the nature of the connection.
And it does seem like the Obama campaign has given a few different answers to some of the questions about the Ayers timeline.
But how important can the details be if the issue as whole doesn't seem that relevant?
Tucker Carlson: Ayers is a creep, and it's infuriating that he works at a taxpayer-supported school. I'd like to see the University of Illinois lose its federal funding over hiring him. But his connections to Obama? They don't move me. The Rev. Wright, on the other hand, is an utterly legitimate topic, and revealing of Obama's character. The McCain people are afraid of being called racist, though, so they won't mention it in public. Which is absurd.
_______________________
Wheaton, Md.: To Tucker -- what do you think McCain's real feelings are about Obama? Does he have as much contempt for him as much as it appears he does?
Tucker Carlson: Yes. McCain's not impressed.
Ana Marie Cox: I'll just add here that in following McCain for a year and a half, I've seen his attitude toward Obama go from "bemused" to "annoyed" to "offended." I still don't think he personally dislikes the guy -- he is probably angrier at the IDEA of Obama, and the idea that the public could choose someone he sees as fundamentally not ready over him.
_______________________
Portland, Ore.: Ana, I know you are with McCain. Can you ask him directly, on camera if possible, for the straight talk on why he thinks Sarah Palin can be president of the United States on inauguration day?
Ana Marie Cox: You have no idea how much I'd love to do that.
But I have not spoken directly to the guy since August.
There is a cut-out of him on the plane, however, and I could ask that. And get the same response I would from him.
_______________________
Jackson, Mich.: Tucker, you once commented to Joe Scarborough on MSNBC that Barack Obama will either win big or lose big in this election. You also mentioned that the media will have to examine its role in this election. Could you go into detail about what you meant? What are you thinking?
Tucker Carlson: Candidates like Obama who come out of nowhere tend either to ride the wave until election day, or wind up crushed on the rocks when it crests before shore. (Metaphor alert! Sorry.)The former's looking more likely this year. As for the press, they've taken sides. That's wrong. They should be ashamed, and when this is all over, many of them will be.
_______________________
Rolla, Mo.: Ana Marie, are you in Bethleham, Pa.? Did the guy doing the introductions refer to Barack Hussein Obama? Is anyone in the crowd foaming at the mouth yet? Pitchforks? Ropes?
Ana Marie Cox: I see no foam, no pitchforks, just a lot of double-knit fabrics and American flags. Which all could be used to FASHION ropes, I suppose...
_______________________
Chicago: Does McCain's residential mortgage bailout proposal appear to be gaining steam on the campaign trail?
Tucker Carlson: I hope not. It's insane. The federal government is going to bail out homeowners by purchasing their mortgages and lowering their monthly payments? In other words, McCain is claiming we have a right to live in houses we paid too much for. Where exactly did this right come from? Who's going to pay for it?
Ana Marie Cox: I haven't seen any evidence of this, accept that his confidence in the plan and the way it sounds like, well, a free lunch seems to appeal.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.: Is it just me or is McCain channeling Bob Dole circa 1996?
Tucker Carlson: If I close my eyes, I can hear Dole chanting, "Where's the outrage?" It's depressing.
Ana Marie Cox: I think McCain, at this point, is probably angrier.
_______________________
St. Louis: I am unable to work up any enthusiasm for either McCain or Obama. My friends and relatives say that my intention to vote for Ralph Nader is a "waste" of my vote. I say that at least my "wasted" vote will count more visibly when the numbers are published and eventually recorded in various political almanacs. Any thoughts on this?
Tucker Carlson: Vote your conscience, I say. A vote is an endorsement that implicates you in whatever administraiton you help elect. You shouldn't be ashamed for supporting a candidate who won't win, or for opting out entirely. If more people tried to do the right rather than the effective thing, it might be a better country.
Ana Marie Cox: Maybe Tucker and I should find some real political opposites to argue with -- I agree with him on this, too. I even voted for Nader myself in 2000. Strategic voting bothers me; I think this would be a healthier democracy if -- at least at some level of national politics -- people didn't have to compromise. We'd probably end up with more parties and, thus (ironically) more compromise. So, yeah, vote your conscience. And hope other people do as well.
_______________________
Cairo, Ill.: Why isn't the media pressuring Sarah Palin harder to have a press conference? The McCain line is that we don't know who Obama is, but that's far more true of Palin. How can anyone even consider putting her in the White House if she can't handle a little open engagement with the press?
Ana Marie Cox: I would welcome suggestions as to how the press might pressure her harder. They are not quiet on this front. And as for how voters can consider putting her in the WH anyway, well, I'm not sure if I trust the press to do the vetting any more than I do McCain. And "handling open engagement with the press" is in itself not much of an indication of fitness to govern.
I think the problem here isn't that Palin is closed off from questions from the press, it is that she's closed off from questions from ANYONE. And it's not that she's inexperienced, even, it's that she doesn't capable of improving WITH experience.
Tucker Carlson: So the press has been too nice to Sarah Palin? What country do you live in?
_______________________
Seattle: At what point does McCain give up and start thinking about ways he can help some of his Senate buddies survive the elections? Are we going to see Palin rallying the base on behalf of Gordon Smith in Eastern Oregon soon?
Tucker Carlson: Giving up won't help his senate buddies. That's the point. If he were doing better, they would be too.
Ana Marie Cox: Agree with Tucker on this one. Also, and I'm not kidding here: He was a POW. By which I mean, his personality is such that I don't think "quitting" in any form is an option.
_______________________
Tacoma, Wash.: Why is offshore drilling such a winning issue when experts have stated that it will not solve our energy problems? I'm a bit disgusted that the Democrats had to cave to Republicans on such a failed policy stance. Why aren't Americans challenged to embrace a radical change in energy policy that countries like Denmark already successfully have tackled?
Ana Marie Cox: It's a winning issue because, I think, Americans like to FIX THINGS NOW. Even if the immediate fixing ultimately doesn't solve the problem any quicker than holding off for a better fix would.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO TAKE ACTION.
See also: Invading Iraq.
And, hey, I hear the coral reefs will welcome us with flowers!
_______________________
What if?: Would McCain be as hacked off if Hillary Clinton were his opponent? Is it the idea that he has a credible challenger facing him or that the competitor is Barack Obama that makes him seem so crochety?
Ana Marie Cox: Yes and it is because it is Obama. He knows and respects Hillary. As creepy as it sounds, I've even heard that they have a mildly flirtatious relationship.
He would be a much happier warrior -- and feel better about the future of the country -- if he were running against Hillary. I have had senior advisers admit (privately) exactly as much.
Tucker Carlson: Exactly, I've heard the same thing. And you can see why McCain feels that way. Obama's a very smart and impressive guy, but he hasn't actually done anything, other than run an effective presidential campaign.
_______________________
Marion, Ill.: I'm finding the rabid responses of the McCain/Palin crowds to the campaign's efforts to paint Obama as a scary terrorist sympathizer really disturbing. Do McCain and Palin realize the kind of hatred they're inciting? Will the media hold them accountable if they continue this line of attack? What the hell happened to "Country First"?
Ana Marie Cox: The McCain people say that if they're held responsible for the crazies that turn out to their town halls then Obama should be held accountable for "friends" like Ayers. I think that logic is good, but their conclusion sucks: I don't think either guy should be held accountable for their "supporters." There are shades of gray (or black or brown) here, of course, and it probably wouldn't hurt McCain/Palin (and it might keep someone else from getting hurt) to vocally (and literally) distance themselves from the kinds of statements that have gotten shouted out recently. This is something the old McCain would probably have done from the stage.
_______________________
Ana Marie Cox: Okay, I have to duck out early. The protective pool calls!
Thanks for coming, see you next week and sorry for being short!
_______________________
I'd like to see the University of Illinois lose its federal funding for hiring him: On what legal grounds? If he's tenured, he only can be terminated for cause, following due process, because tenure is a Constitutionally-protected property right. The criteria are incompetence, neglect of duty, insubordination, and that catch-all "moral turpitude" (which has to rise to a pretty strong level). If Ayers is not tenured then he's employed under contract, probably for anywhere between one and three years at a time, and so is only entitled to reasonable notice of nonrenewal (with advance time a function of how long one has been employed there).
Tucker Carlson: Tenure's a joke, a dodge and a cover for mediocrities like many college professors. People with real jobs don't get tenure. It's ludicrous and embarrassing, and I'm amazed that anyone still defends it.
_______________________
Vacaville, Calif.: Tucker,Ana, what to you think of all the catch phrases that the Republican candidates are using -- "maverick," "Joe Six-Pack," "darn right" and so on? Think the public is a little tired of hearing them, and that it sounds phony...
Tucker Carlson: Of course they're tired and phony and hackneyed, and I'm absolutely tired of hearing them, as well as every other sort of crypto-populist pandering from both sides. But they're not racist code words, as some have claimed. When everything's racist, nothing is. At some point, Obama supporters may regret devaluing the term.
_______________________
El Paso, Texas: Do you think we could get Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain to debate? Who do you think would win?
Tucker Carlson: I don't even like to think about it. In general I'd like to a whole lot less of candidates' spouses, all of them.
_______________________
Portland, Ore.: Why would Obama release a (really, really) long ad bringing up McCain's involvement in the Savings and Loan crisis 20 years ago? With his current poll numbers, it seems completely uneeded and could hurt him.
Tucker Carlson: I agree. It seemed weird and touchy, and also boring. Who'd watch all 20 minutes? Seriously.
_______________________
New York: Would you agree that perhaps the Dems should learn from the lessons of 2000 and 2004 -- be careful what you wish for? My point is that the ridiculous right thought Bush would be their savior on Earth. If the Democrats think that Obama will right all wrongs, they should think again. On both sides of the aisle, our politicians continue to show utter contempt for the people they are supposed to represent.
Tucker Carlson: Yes! Such a good point. The problem with running as Jesus is you have to govern like him too, and that's impossible. There are going to be a lot of disillusioned Starbucks baristas out there about midway through Obama's first term, I predict. Maybe the campaign should start preparing supporters for the fact that Obama is fallible.
_______________________
Cheltenham, U.K.: What did both of you think of the Sean Hannity/Gibbs exchange regarding the Ayers affair?
Tucker Carlson: I missed it, but you've convinved me to search YouTube for the clip. Congratulations if you work for Fox PR. Job well done.
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: Tucker, if Obama were elected which former president would he be most like? I think Jimmy Carter, because he hasn't really shown any leadership on any issue, he waits for long periods before he makes up his mind (a week on the financial crisis, four days on the Soviet/Georgia issue), and when he does take a stand it doesn't seem to be a strong one.
Tucker Carlson: You may be right. I hope not. One thing for sure: Obama could never be as sour, sanctimonious and nasty as Carter was. It's not possible.
_______________________
Washington: Tucker, what's Pat Buchanan like? I like to think of him as my crazy Republican Uncle (if I were a Republican and Irish, which I am not). Why doesn't Pat have his own show on MSNBC -- I know I would watch!
Tucker Carlson: Pat is one of the all-time great guys. Ask anyone at MSNBC, not exactly a hotbed of Buchananism. You won't hear a bad word about Pat. He ought to have a show, I agree.
_______________________
Maple Glen, Pa.: Do you think the Republicans, knowing this wasn't going to be their year, decided to throw McCain under the bus (they don't really like him anyway), figuring that in 2012 they can nominate Jeb Bush or someone else to take over for Obama, whom they hope won't be able to clean up the mess he's walking into?
Tucker Carlson: I wouldn't give Republicans credit for that level of organization, but it's not a crazy idea. When was the last time a Republican presidential ticket won without a Nixon or a Bush on it? 1928.
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Burke, Va.: Do either of you believe the bailout plan will work? Will it get worse before it gets better?
Tucker Carlson: Not working so far. I'd hate to think that Congress once again used a national crisis as an excuse for a power grab, but that may be what happened.
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Bronx, N.Y.: There might be a whole bunch of Starbucks baristas who like Obama now, but my experience is that the elite left preferred people like Edwards and even Kucinich. They like Obama now, but for more than 50 percent of the Democratic primary votes cast, remember -- he's a second choice.
Tucker Carlson: Good point. But in the end most partisan voters are obedient little robots, and they've climbed aboard and not looked back.
_______________________
Fair Lawn, N.Y.: Tucker, as Bush is fond of saying, this election isn't your first rodeo. I remember you did an interview with Bush before he was president, so I assume you were covering the race in 1999-2000, and my question is this: Hasn't the media misinformed the public about the race that McCain ran back then? Sure, he was the victim of dirty tricks in South Carolina -- we hear about that constantly -- but how about the slimy tactics he used against Bush in Michigan (calling him anti-Catholic) and running dishonest ads against Bush that he had to withdraw, among other things?
All we hear about is how unprecedented and shocking it all is that a noble, almost holy man like McCain would run this type of campaign against Obama ... but please, let's be grownups. The facts back then don't support the media narrative -- this is the type of candidate he's always been, and politics ain't beanbag. You agree?
Tucker Carlson: I mostly agree. I covered McCain throughout the primaries that year. Bush wasn't nice to him in South Carolina, but that's not why he lost. McCain lost because he attacked the Republican Party in speeches to Republican primary voters (and did other weird things, like hanging a sign that said "Burn It Down!" behind the stage at campaign events). I disagree that McCain is currently running a particularly nasty campaign. The press is claiming that because they support Obama and they're offended. But get some perspective. It's pretty tame.
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Los Angeles: How do you stand on illigal immigration, and do you think that the price we are paying for it is too high?
Tucker Carlson: If the economy gets much worse, you'll see a profound change of opinion on many topics, including immigration (and global warming). The price will seem a lot higher when the unemployment rate rises.
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Most worthless question of the day: If the election were held today, who would win: President Bush or O.J. Simpson?
Tucker Carlson: It'd be close, though neither of them would be available to serve.
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Washington: Isn't part of the Obama phenomenon that voting for him is a way for the nation to collectively respond to the legacy of slavery and Jim Crow? In other words, people want him to win because of the euphoric feeling they will have on Wednesday morning knowing they were part of something historic and that few of us thought we would live to see. An Obama win will make us feel awfully good about ourselves.
Tucker Carlson: Exactly. We hear a lot about "the effect of race on this election," meaning the effect of white racists who refuse to support Obama because of his color. But it seems to me there are at least as many (and where I live, far more) white people who will vote for Obama at least partly because he's black. Supporting him makes them feel good about themselves, if not morally superior to the rest of us. I'm not sure that's a noble reason to vote for someone. But the point is, race plays a far more complicated role in this election than you'd know from reading most newspaper columns.
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Tucker Carlson: Thanks a lot for having me. That was fun as hell. See you next week.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Late Edition - Final
Asked, Millions Reply
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
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LENGTH: 228 words
At least six million questions have been submitted via the Internet to be asked at the town-hall-style presidential debate Tuesday in Nashville between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain. That's a lot of queries for 90 minutes, and obviously they won't all get asked -- there will be time for only 15 to 20.
The moderator, Tom Brokaw of NBC News, is sifting through those millions of questions to find six or seven that he might pose. The other dozen or so questions will come from among an audience of about 80 likely voters from the Nashville area who will be on stage with the candidates.
Mr. Brokaw will meet with audience members on Tuesday as he seeks a balance between foreign and domestic topics.
The live audience was selected over the last week by the Gallup Organization, which made thousands of calls to find people who are truly uncommitted -- that is, they may be leaning toward one candidate or the other but could still change their minds.
''Only a small percentage of the population qualifies as uncommitted,'' said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.
The format allows about five minutes for each question: two minutes for each candidate and one minute for what the co-chairman of the Commission on Presidential Debates, Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., described as ''interplay'' to be managed by Mr. Brokaw.
KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
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International
GEORGIA ACCUSED OF NEW HOSTILITIES
As Russia Dismantles Checkpoints
The brokered peace between Russia and Georgia appeared fragile as accusations flew. Russia accused Georgia of ''seeking to provoke new hostilities,'' while Russian authorities were dismantling checkpoints outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Abkhazian authorities said that a border guard was killed during an exchange of fire with gunmen on the Georgian side, and the past few days have been marked by other violent episodes. Russian officials reached out to France, demanding that they help enforce the peace they had brokered. Page A8
CHRISTIANS PROTEST IN BAGHDAD
About 75 Christians and others assembled in Baghdad to demand the reinstatement of a provision of the provincial elections law, which ensures political representation of minority groups. The provision allows for council seats for Christians and two other minority groups. Its elimination was the most significant political development for Christians since American troops overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003. Page A6
AFGHAN DENIES LINK TO DRUG TRADE
Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, denied recent accusations that he was linked to the heroin trade, calling them ''baseless'' and saying they were part of political pressure being applied to the president following his denouncement of American air strikes. The denial came in response to a New York Times article that examined the concerns of senior American officials that Ahmed Wali Karzai might be involved in heroin shipments. Page A14
PANEL WARNS OF EXTINCTION CRISIS
A quarter of all mammals are in danger of extinction because of habitat loss, according to a study by a leading global conservation body. The situation was called an ''extinction crisis'' by the group, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, which added that hundreds of species could be lost in the present generation's lifetime as a result of human actions. The report, presented at a conference in Barcelona, Spain, was the group's most detailed study of mammals in more than a decade. Page A12
RAIN FOREST TRIBES CLAIM NEGLECT
Resentment is boiling in Venezuela among indigenous tribes, who claim that negligence on the part of the government is leading to the deaths of dozens of their people. The neglect appears to be linked to President Hugo Chavez's decision to expel American missionaries from the region, accusing them of espionage. The missionaries had ministered to the tribe member's health, acting as administrators and ensuring they were cared for. Since their absence, the plight of the native people has worsened. Page A6
National
SHAKY WALL STREET MARKETS
Put Cities in Financial Bind
Wall Street's troubles are squeezing cities around the country as the crisis takes it toll on principal sources of city revenue. In addition, loss of usually sound investments and the credit in the municipal bond markets -- where local governments turn for relatively cheap, fast money --has left some cities facing their worst fiscal crises in decades. PAGE A16
SENATOR'S CALLS TAPED BY F.B.I.
In the second week of the trial of Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, the prosecution played three conversations between Mr. Stevens and a friend, Bill Allen, in which Mr. Allen informed the senator that their relationship might also be the subject of a corruption investigation. The phone call was recorded by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, with whom Mr. Allen was cooperating. Mr. Stevens is accused of knowingly concealing about $250,000 in gifts and services from Mr. Allen, mostly for renovations to his Alaska home. PAGE A16
COURT HEARS TOBACCO FRAUD CASE
In its first argument of the court's new term, the Supreme Court heard from the plaintiffs in the Altria Group v. Good case, in which smokers say they were defrauded by tobacco companies that marketed ''light'' cigarettes. At issue is whether smokers should be able to sue under state law given that a federal law bans at least some claims concerning smoking and health. PAGE A17
HOUSING EXPANDS IN U.S.
The Census Bureau said that the number of houses, apartments and mobile homes in the nation rose by almost four million from 2005 to 2007, to 128.2 million. The numbers also find a possible cause for the difficulty in meeting monthly housing costs: Among owners who reported making a down payment on the homes they occupied, about a third put down only 6 percent or less of the purchase price. PAGE A18
FAN IN ROOM LOWERS INFANT DEATH
A study published in The Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine found that sleeping in a room with a fan lowers a baby's risk of sudden infant death syndrome by 72 percent. It is the latest evidence to suggest that a baby's sleep environment is a critical factor in the risk of SIDS, which is diagnosed when an infant's sudden death cannot be explained by other factors. The study did not say why fans made a difference, but researchers think that fans circulate air and lower the risk of ''rebreathing'' exhaled carbon dioxide. PAGE A16
New York
CITY TO CHANGE THE WAY IT GRANTS
Licenses for Crane Operators
The New York City Buildings Department said it would overhaul its procedures on licensing crane operators, and the written and practical tests for lower-level crane operator's licenses will now be given by the National Commission for the Certification of Crane Operators. The move stems in part from allegations of corruption surrounding the city's acting chief crane inspector, who was arrested this summer on charges of receiving bribes. PAGE A26
HERE HE COMES TO SAVE THE DAY
Clyde Haberman writes that Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's decision to try to run for a third term is essentially a lofty proclamation: ''I make a gift of myself to New York to lessen its misfortune.'' But, he adds, that flies in the face of the expressed will of New York City voters, who voted twice in the 1990s to limit the mayor and other officeholders to two terms. PAGE A27
Business
TRYING TO PUT A PRETTY BOW
On an Ugly Crisis
The marketing departments of major financial institution have a tricky task: trying to assuage the fears of a jumpy public. (''We love Chase,'' reads the headline of an ad for Washington Mutual. ''And not just because they have a trillion dollars.'') The thrust of many of the ads seems to be: ''You're O.K.'' PAGE B10
LURING CORPORATE MONEY BACK
In an attempt to ease the credit crisis, the Internal Revenue Service announced that it would allow corporations to ramp up their use of tax-free loans from overseas subsidiaries. The aim is to encourage American corporations to bring hundreds of billions of dollars kept overseas back to the United States, and could help combat a major problem of the credit crisis: the reluctance by banks to give companies the short-term loans needed for daily business. PAGE B11
NERVOUS DAYS FOR HEDGE FUNDS
The crisis in the markets has the hedge fund industry on edge, putting even giants like the Citadel Group of Chicago on the defensive. Many of them are considering reducing some of the lavish fees that investors pay Citadel to tend their fortunes. And some investors are already asking for their money back. PAGE B1
OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL
As recently as this summer, energy analysts and traders were predicting that the price for oil would top $200 a barrel by 2010 or sooner. But weakening global demand has sent oil prices on a skid, and prognosticators are talking about prices falling to $70 or lower. Still, economic worries have offset any relief commuters may feel. PAGE B9
science
AN AUTOIMMUNE DISORDER
In Camouflage
How can a disease that afflicts three million Americans, 90 percent of them women, be as obscure as Sjogren's syndrome, in which the body attacks its own secretory glands and tissues? Experts say it is one of the three most common autoimmune disorders, but few lay people know of it, and doctors rarely think of it when patients describe its symptoms. PAGE D7
LESS-INVASIVE PRENATAL TEST
For three decades, scientists have been trying to develop a noninvasive prenatal test for Down syndrome that would replace amniocentesis, which can cause miscarriages. Now, scientists using powerful genetic techniques are closing in on that goal with tests that require only a blood sample from the pregnant woman. down PAGE D5
RIVALS DIFFER ON ENERGY PLANS
The presidential candidates claim to see America's energy future, but their competing visions have a certain vintage quality: the hard path versus the soft path. The soft path is energy conservation and power from the sun, wind and plants -- the technologies that Senator Barack Obama emphasizes. Senator John McCain is more enthusiastic about building nuclear power plants, the hard path. PAGE D1
Arts
TWIRLING AND DANCING
Among the Lockheeds
''Breaking Ground: A Dance Charrette,'' is a yearly event in which five choreographers put together five-minute pieces, and the site is revealed only five days before performances. This year's installment was in Hangar B at Floyd Bennett Field, New York's first municipal airport at the edge of Brooklyn. Roslyn Sulcas says it is decidedly the best dance location of the year. PAGE C6
DEAR BUBBE: PLEASE VOTE OBAMA
Sarah Silverman, the acid-tongued comedian who has become a regular presence in viral videos, is now starring in ''The Great Schlep,'' a new video by the Jewish Council for Education and Research, a political action committee. The premise: asking young Jewish voters who are going to vote for Barack Obama to head to Florida to convince their grandparents, who may be on the fence or wary about doing so. ''Who has more power with them than their grandchildren?'' Ms. Silverman asks. PAGE C1
OH, YOU BEAUTIFUL BIRD
A number of naturalist artists have made their careers portraying birds. Four new books illuminate the confluence of science, art and ornithology. And though sketching may have given way to the high-tech tools of zoology, the authors agree that drawing continues to be the superior tool. PAGE D4
Sports
IN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP,
A Teacher and Pupil Square Off
Manny Ramirez may be the most dangerous hitter on the Los Angeles Dodgers, who may be the most dangerous team still alive in the baseball postseason. As his team heads into the National League Championship Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, he faces Charlie Manuel, the Phillies manager and Ramirez's former hitting coach, who may best know how to stop him. PAGE B17
TOO MANY PLAYERS ON THE FIELD
N.B.C.'s ''Football Night in America'' broadcast is loaded with on-air talent -- and that's not necessarily a good thing, writes Richard Sandomir. There are too many moving pieces, and the show does not take advantage of what should be one of its strong points: the reunion of Keith Olbermann and his former SportsCenter co-anchor, Dan Patrick. PAGE B18
CHEERING ON THROUGH THE CRISIS
The economy may be in turmoil, but that should have little impact on demand for all the luxury suites that will be in the soon-to-be-completed stadiums of several New York sports teams. There are many corporate headquarters in New York and teams like the Yankees remain huge marquee draws. Indeed, for some stadiums, the expensive luxury suites are already sold out. PAGE B16
Obituaries
IRENE DAILEY, 88
She survived a series of Broadway flops before winning critical acclaim in ''The Subject Was Roses,'' in 1964. She went on to play Liz Matthews, a moneyed matriarch, on the television soap opera, ''Another World,'' for which she won an Emmy in 1979. ''Every plummy-voiced English rose of an imitation actress should be dragged to see Miss Dailey,'' a critic wrote. ''She sweats love, breathes hate, weeps desire.'' PAGE B14
DealBook
ADVISERS ARE DOUBLING
As Wall Street's First Responders
There is a small cadre of respected bankers and lawyers who have been summoned repeatedly over the last few months to devise ways to help some of the country's ailing financial institutions during the economic crisis. Sometimes they are representing the same firm. Other times they are on opposite sides of the table. And as the Treasury Department looms larger and larger in the crisis, they have even begun representing the government. PAGE F1
Editorial
THE CRISIS AGENDA
It is vital that Barack Obama and John McCain, one of whom will inherit a real mess, address the financial crisis in detail at their debate Tuesday night. Substantive answers to the financial crisis are not the stuff of sound bites. It is time for the candidates to rise to the occasion. Page A30
CUT THE SPRAWL AND WARMING
The latest example of California's serious work on climate change is a new law intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by curbing urban sprawl and cutting back the time people have to spend in their automobiles. Page A30
PLAYING INTO HIS HANDS
We understand why the Bush administration and Congress are fed up with Bolivia's president, Evo Morales. Unfortunately, their frustration seems to be clouding good judgment. Page A30
Op-Ed
DAVID BROOKS
Decision-making is an inherently emotional process, and the traders on Wall Street in charge of trillions of dollars become bipolar as a result of their uncertainty. Page A31
BOB HERBERT
With the economy in the tank and working families drowning in debt, the need for job-creating initiatives has seldom been greater. Page A31
THE DISMAL QUESTIONS
As Americans worry about a falling stock market and a financial crisis that is spreading around the globe, John McCain and Barack Obama are scheduled to meet in Nashville on Tuesday night for the second presidential debate. The editors of the Op-Ed page asked the economists R. Glenn Hubbard, Myron S. Scholes and Joseph E. Stiglitz to suggest questions that they would like to hear the candidates answer. Page A31
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Dangerous Territory;
As the campaigns plunge into the mud, how should voters evaluate their claims?
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LENGTH: 639 words
THE TONE is ominous, the shadings dark. "Who is Barack Obama?" asks the latest campaign advertisement from Sen. John McCain. "He says our troops in Afghanistan are 'just air-raiding villages and killing civilians' . . . How dishonorable. . . . How dangerous. . . . Too risky for America."
Here's what Mr. Obama actually said about Afghanistan in August 2007: "We've got to get the job done there, and that requires us to have enough troops so that we're not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous problems there." The gap between that reality and the McCain ad -- not quite a lie, yet not a fair representation, either -- is where the campaigns seem to be heading with four weeks to go until the election. Gov. Sarah Palin accused Mr. Obama "palling around with terrorists." The Obama campaign retaliated with a 13-minute video about Mr. McCain's involvement in the two-decade-old Keating Five scandal, emphasizing words and phrases such as "betrayal" and "destroying trust." Issues are out, character assassination is in.
Character is legitimate campaign fodder -- up to a point. Is there something to be learned from Mr. Obama's association in the 1990s with William Ayers, the unrepentant domestic terrorist to whom Ms. Palin referred? It's certainly not that Mr. Obama hates America or shares responsibility for the bombing Mr. Ayers helped carry out. By the time Mr. Obama came on the Chicago scene, Mr. Ayers was a member of the liberal political establishment that Mr. Obama sought to join. Maybe someone of stronger character would have decided not to go with that flow -- not to join a foundation board with Mr. Ayers or allow him to host a political coffee. It's an arguable point, maybe a small brushstroke in a full portrait of Mr. Obama, in any case hardly disqualifying to his candidacy.
Similarly, the Keating savings-and-loan scandal, in which Mr. McCain was accused of poor judgment but no crime, is a legitimate topic. The Obama campaign is off-base in seeking to tie it to today's financial meltdown on the basis that Mr. McCain was and remains an ideological foe of regulation. As we've written here before, his record is far more complex, including advocacy of stricter accounting standards after the Enron scandal and stronger regulation of housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But Mr. McCain himself has talked about the shame he felt in his Keating Five involvement and how it impelled him to a greater attention to ethics in his subsequent career. It's a brushstroke, or two, in his political portrait.
But the relevance of character can't excuse an anything-goes assault. Mr. Obama's use of the word "just" in his statement on Afghanistan was inartful. But Mr. McCain knows perfectly well that Mr. Obama doesn't believe U.S. troops are killing only civilians. He also knows perfectly well that the problem Mr. Obama described -- the alienation of Afghan civilians by military tactics that lead to too many civilian deaths -- is real and demands a rethinking of strategy. What's dishonorable in this case is the McCain ad, not the Obama statement.
And while character counts, issues do, too, or should. In the debate tonight, we'd like to hear each candidate explain how he would unfreeze global credit markets if he were in charge now and how he will restructure financial regulation if he is in charge four months from now. We'd like to hear the candidates debate their very different cap-and-trade proposals for controlling global warming, their ideas for controlling health costs, their thoughts on immigration and homeland security, and what they would do with captured terrorism suspects once the Guantanamo Bay prison has been closed. We'd like to hear, in other words, about not just what each did 10 and 20 years ago but what he would do as president.
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Suburban Edition
McCain Spot Distorts Obama Comment About Military
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THE AD
Narrator: Who is Barack Obama? He says our troops in Afghanistan are -- (Barack Obama:) ". . . just air-raiding villages and killing civilians." (Narrator:) How dishonorable. Congressional liberals voted repeatedly to cut off funding to our active troops. Increasing the risk on their lives. How dangerous. Obama and congressional liberals. Too risky for America.
ANALYSIS
This John McCain ad blatantly distorts Barack Obama's words in an effort to paint him as callous about the role of the U.S. military. The commercial truncates a comment that Obama made to a voter in New Hampshire in August 2007. According to the Associated Press, the senator from Illinois brought up Afghanistan when asked whether he would withdraw troops from Iraq to fight terrorism elsewhere: "We've got to get the job done there, and that requires us to have enough troops so that we're not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous pressure over there." In short, Obama was saying he wanted to avoid just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, not that this was all that American troops were doing. His meaning was the opposite of what is portrayed in this spot. Civilian casualties have been rising in Afghanistan this year, and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates last month apologized for U.S. airstrikes that have killed civilians.
Obama voted against Republican legislation to continue an open-ended commitment in Iraq after President Bush vetoed a Democratic bill to link funding to a timetable for withdrawal. He did not intend to cut off funding for American troops any more than McCain did in urging Bush to reject the Democratic measure. The commercial represents an effort to turn the campaign dialogue from the economy to foreign policy, a stronger issue for the senator from Arizona. By having the female narrator begin with the words "Who is Barack Obama?" the ad attempts to reinforce doubts about the Democratic nominee as a lesser-known, untested and ultimately risky figure. And by picturing Obama with such congressional leaders as Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank and Charles B. Rangel, the McCain campaign makes a more subtle argument for the first time. Because both houses of Congress are considered likely to remain in Democratic hands, the implication is that a vote for Obama would give the party unchecked power, while a McCain White House would act as a brake against liberal Democrats on Capitol Hill.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 7, 2008 Tuesday 1:00 PM EST
Station Break;
Pop Culture and More
BYLINE: Paul Farhi, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 5878 words
HIGHLIGHT: Join Paul Farhi on Tuesday, Oct. 7, ata 1 p.m. ET for all things pop culture ("Saturday Night Live's" political sketches, sideline reporters, An American Carol, etc.) to a few things not (like his story on John McCain's first marriage). Part of this great country. And also. Thank you.
Join Paul Farhi on Tuesday, Oct. 7, ata 1 p.m. ET for all things pop culture ("Saturday Night Live's" political sketches, sideline reporters, An American Carol, etc.) to a few things not (like his story on John McCain's first marriage). Part of this great country. And also. Thank you.
A transcript follows.
Farhi is a reporter in The Post's Style section, writing about media and popular culture. He's been watching TV and listening to the radio since "The Monkees" were in first run and Adam West was a star. Born in Brooklyn and raised in Los Angeles, Farhi had brief stints in the movie business (as an usher at the Picwood Theater), and in the auto industry (rental car lot guy) before devoting himself full-time to word processing. His car has 15 radio pre-sets and his cable system has 500 channels. He vows to use all of them for good instead of evil.
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Paul Farhi: Meanwhile, much to chat about here. Has Tina Fey created a lifetime job guarantee with her Sarah Palin imitation? (Not that she needs a lifetime job guarantee). Truly, it's one of the best SNL character parodies since....since...Darrell Hammond as Jesse Jackson?
Maybe you can do better. Let's go to the phones...
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Paul Farhi: Greetings, all, and thanks for moseying by....First, a little housekeeping bidness. Apropos our scholarly discussion of female sideline reporters, an alert chatter from West 57th Street in the quaint little village of Manhattan notes the existing of this site, sidelinehotties.com. I don't know which is weirder--that there are so many female sideline reporters, or that there are so many female sideline reporters that someone has now worked up a site about them.
Paul Farhi: Ooops. I screwed up (&*%$^ computers!).
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washingtonpost.com: Sidelinehotties.com
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Fairfax, Va.: Just a quick note to congratulate you on an excellent article yesterday about Carol McCain.
washingtonpost.com: The Separate Peace of John And Carol ( Post, Oct. 6)
Paul Farhi: Thanks. The mail/response on that one has been interesting. A fair number of people found it "even-handed." But a lesser number (but still enough) thought it was a hatchet job on McCain. I think I can reconcile that, however: The haters thought it was unfair to bring up the *subject.* But, at least I'd like to think, that they thought my treatment of the subject was fair. Or something.
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Has Tina Fey created a lifetime job guarantee with her Sarah Palin imitation?: LIFETIME? Hope not, because that would Palin would be in the spotlight for a long time.
Paul Farhi: Well, Sarah will likely be with us for a while, one way or another. Have you ever seen/heard of any individual who in just 30-plus days has created sooo many instantly identifiable catchphrases? I could start a list...
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Lifetime job: I certainly hope not. I love Tina Fey and wish her a long and wonderful career (her recent Emmy for the show that she created and stars in almost seems an afterthought these days). But I hope that Sarah Palin exhausts her 15 minutes and disappears completely from the scene as of, say, November 5. I look forward to the day when Fey's spot-on impression will seem as dated as Dana Carvey's Ross Perot.
Paul Farhi:"Joe Six-Pack Americans."
"I said thanks but no thanks for that Bridge to Nowhere..."
Stop me before I go on...
_______________________
Herndon, Va.: Mr. F: I wanted to give a somewhat delayed tribute to the great drummer, Earl Palmer, who passed in September. A member of the Rock and Roll Hall of fame, he played on Fats Domino's earliest recordings, Little Richard on "Tutti Fruitti," Ike and Tina Turner's "River Deep, Mountain High," and did studio work with such artists as Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles and the Beach Boys. In his later years, when playing on a music video with "Cracker," one of the members made the mistake of asking Palmer if he would have any trouble playing along with the songs. Palmer's reply "I invented this s---"
Paul Farhi: Ah. Thank you. I've never heard of Mr. Palmer, but that's a Hall of Fame career all right.
_______________________
The Airless Cubicle: Paul -- One of the reasons radio station quality declined since deregulation has been the high prices paid for radio stations which required high revenue from advertisting to service the debt, which in turn required programs that offended few to bring in listeners per hour. How can Citadel and Clear Channel and CBS Radio survive these tougher times? Is Red Zebra going to be a tax writeoff for Dan Snyder? Which major radio station in the D.C. area will go under receivership or bankruptcy first?
Paul Farhi: You say that like it's a bad thing. Is it? Wouldn't the need to serve the broadest possible audience because of the sword of debt hanging over your head theoretically make you a better radio station rather than a worse one? I agree that the need to make the monthly numbers might crowd out some experimentation, but the problem with many experiments is that they fail. So, maybe debt is irrelevant here. I'm just sayin'...
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Takoma Park, Md.: Wow, conservatives really have a hard time with humor. I think that Michael Moore is kind of a blowhard, but I would know better than invoking George Patton to mock him. And comparing the U.S. Civil War to the current war in Iraq? Hmmm.
washingtonpost.com: An American Carol
Paul Farhi: Interesting comment. I was saying the same thing to an editor yesterday--that there have been few, if any, "conservative" movies that have ever succeeded. You could argue that that's because there have been so few "conservative" movies. But I can't think of one that ever drew a big audience. "American Carol" is a flop. "Red Dawn" was so-so at the box office, as was "Green Berets" (John Wayne in a flag-waving pro-Vietnam flick). Others?
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Upper Peninsula, Mich.: Hi Paul, I don't think Tina Fey is going to get too much more mileage of Gov. Palin -- because she (the Governor) is just too easy to imitate. Yes, there is a physical resemblance and Fey has the comic chops, but -- like Bill Clinton -- Palin is just too easy sound-like, look like, and satirize. If Palin remains on the public stage, all female comics will work her into their repertoire.
Paul Farhi: Yeah, and it's also possible that people will tire of the same old jokes about her (the accent, the hair, the conservative politics, etc.). I know I'm tired of comics doing John-McCain-is-old jokes and Bill-Clinton-is-a-womanizer jokes.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: What up, P-Far?
Have you previewed "Life on Mars"? So far, the new season is seeming a little lackluster. I never thought I'd say this, but Alec Baldwin was right: "Earl" really is done. Looking forward to "30 Rock," but is there anything new worth checking out before the return of "Lost" and "24"?
Paul Farhi: I'm intrigued by "Life on Mars." I love the time travel thing (premise: contempo cop goes back to 1973 to work on force), as I am on record being the only person in American to like "Journeyman" from last year. And "Life on Mars" has Harvey Keitel in it. So, you're guaranteed at least a minimum of fine entertainment value.
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Takoma Park, Md.: I think that the best SNL political impersonation was the duo of Dana Carvey as Ross Perot and Phil Hartman as Admiral Stockdale.
"When you were quiet there for an hour, that was world class!"
Paul Farhi: Phil Hartman is one of the great SNL performers of all time. But his Stockdale was easy, and a one-note impersonation at that.
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Purcellville, Va.: Any ideas on how much of Sarah Palin's public perception is based on "SNL" (and all its replays) versus her actual interviews and campaign appearances?
Paul Farhi: Fascinating question, and a hard one to answer, of course (not sure how you'd construct a question to tease out which is which). Thing is, any comic riff like that has to play off something real, so they're not entirely making it up. Plus, any impersonation exaggerates one or two or three qualities about a person. So, um, ah...I guess I don't know what's what.
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Silver Spring, Md.: It's a wierd radio landscape out there. I have always loved radio and enjoy listening to WTOP, NPR, baseball and (even!) music. What's the deal with "Obama 1260"? Is that legal? Dan Snyder radio, WTOP and Federal News Radio seems to be playing some sort of musical chairs with their frequencies.
If radio is a "warm" medium and TV is a "cool" medium, does that somehow explain why radio is a conservative medium and TV (SNL, scripted shows) is more liberal? Even when conservative material succeeds on TV (FoxNews) it's pretty much radio with moving pictures of the speaker's face.
Paul Farhi: What's illegal about "Obama 1260" and "McCain 570" (for the uninitiated: Dan Snyder's fledgling radio empire has taken its two very low-rated AM stations and turned them into Dem and Repub stations until Election Day). Is there some FCC rule that says you can't promote your station(s) this way?
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Palin and Fey: Paul, do you think Palin will really show up on SNL? It would definitely be a ratings grabber. The only thing about it is that Tina Fey has pretty much openly insulted Palin (with her, Please help me stop playing this lady after Nov 5 line at the Emmys) so I wonder if she and Palin would be willing to actually share the stage... Fey showed her a lot of contempt on a personal level. It's one thing when Tina is "just doing her job", it's another when she personally speaks out against her. But I could see Palin being game for it, so who knows.
Paul Farhi: Frankly, I think it would be a BRILLIANT stroke for Palin to come on SNL opposite Tina-as-Palin. It would a) show Palin has a sense of humor about herself; and b) be widely watched, giving a ton o' publicity for the campaign at a time it could really use it. Heck, Hillary Clinton did it, after years and years of vicious SNL skits about her. Obama and McCain have done it, too (McCain even hosted a few years ago).
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Leesburg, Va.: I enjoyed your story on John McCain's first marriage. One thing I wasn't clear on: What led him to adopt Carol's kids from HER first marriage? What happened to their dad?
washingtonpost.com: The Separate Peace of John And Carol ( Post, Oct. 6)
Paul Farhi: Carol and her first husband, Alasdair Swanson, a classmate of John McCain's at the Naval Academy, were divorced in the early 1960s. Apparently a very bitter parting. But I, too, am unclear about what happened to him after the fact. He would have to have given up his parental rights, or had them taken from him by a court, for John to have adopted Carol's two boys. I just don't know.
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Purcellville, Va.: Speaking of SNL, I think Kristin Wiig has got to be one of the funniest players they've had in a long time. There's just something about her that makes me laugh. She's a natural, like Gilda Radner, who can be funny just walking on stage. The Lennon Sisters parody last week had me in tears I was laughing so hard, and then there's the "just kidding" guest on Weekend Update. Thoughts?
Paul Farhi: I've said this before and will again: Female performers have been stronger on SNL for the past, oh, six to eight years, than the male players. Amy Poehler, Maya Rudolph, Tina Fey, Molly Shannon, Sheri Oteri, Rachel Dratch and now Kristin (I might be missing someone) vs. who on the male side? Will Ferrell?
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From Your Neighboorhood: Paul,
I have it on good authority that we live near each other. Now I know you have HD or satellite radio and I only have my normal AM/FM car radio, but 980 AM is very hard to pull in after the sun goes down. So how am I going to be able to listen to the Redskins when they play a 4:00 game and I'm out and about? Are there any other stations that come in well at night that have the Redskins games?
Paul Farhi: Dude, quit stalking me...The Redskins are literally on five stations locally (check local listings, as they say). I admit the signals range from so-so (980) to outright crappy, but you can usually hear them somewhere.
Maybe what you have to do is play radio roulette--keep hitting the pre-sets tuned to all the stations until the sunspots die down and you can hear one of 'em clearly.
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Silver Spring, Md.: I asked about the legality of "Obama 1260" and didn't know about "McCain 570." I was sort of joking about the old days of the Fairness Doctrine (kids, ask your grandpa).
What do you think about my idea that radio is a cool-conservative medium and that TV is a warm-liberal medium?
Paul Farhi: I happen to have Marshall McLuhan right here (ancient Woody Allen/"Annie Hall" reference, thankyouverymush)...Um, I don't get it. What's inherently conservative about radio and inherently lib about TV?
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SO LET DOWN: Got FiOS TV, had been looking forward to it for so long! Sure, pic is better, but since they have so few channels in the OnDemand section, I can't watch what I used to watch on Comcast. Most of OnDemand is sports and soap operas. I used to watch BBC, Sundance, cool stuff OnDemand. I am SO let down. What the crappy am I paying for? And Sundance is $15 a month extra, whereas that was free with Comcast. Bait and Switch.
Paul Farhi: I'm loving my OnDemand on Comcast. Could be a reason NOT to switch to FiOS. On the other hand, I don't love Comcast's prices or customer service, which ARE reasons to switch to FiOS (when it shows up in my 'hood, which appears to be never).
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The Airless Cubicle: Paul -- The sunspots have died down! There was a period of 62 days this quarter where there were no sunspots whatsoever on the surface of the Sun. This means long-distance communication using the ionosphere should be reliable.
In Anne Arundel County, 92.7 is a good frequency to hear Red Zebra.
Paul Farhi: Dang. You people know EVERYthing. But I already sorta knew that.
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Re: SNL: Andy Samberg is pretty amazing, but you're right, the female performers are generally much stronger than the male performers.
Paul Farhi: Yes, Samberg is loveable, but mostly for his SNL Digital Shorts, which are often brilliant. I can't think of one sketch character he does, however...
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Carol McCain: Paul, I found the article on the McCain's marriage very interesting. You mentioned that Carol McCain worked for Nancy Reagan but didn't mention how Carol McCain is so similar to Jane Wyman in having faded off into retirement, supporting their former husbands and never saying a bad thing about them. In addition, the children from each of these first marriages did not like Carol McCain or Nancy Reagan until years down the road. I thought these details would have really added more depth to the Carol McCain/Nancy Reagan relationship.
Paul Farhi: Fascinating parallel, yes, that only occured to me this morning (too late for print, I guess). But does the Wyman/Nancy vs. Carol/Cindy timing break down a bit? I mean, weren't Ron and Jane divorced when Ron met Nancy? Because John and Carol were still married when John took up with Cindy...
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vs. who on the male side? Will Ferrell? : Jimmy what's his name.
Paul Farhi: Fallon. Judges....? [Sound of bell ringing] Yes! We'll accept that answer.
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Re: Conservative Movies: How about anything starring Mel Gibson in the past decade?? His personal politics bleed through in any of his flicks, starting with "Ransom" (stupid government/FBI bungles his son's kidnapping case and he has to take the law into his own hands), "The Patriot" (Big Bad British resort to killing innocent children, which is completely unsubstantiated), and the best of all, "The Passion of the Christ" (once again blaming the Jews for the crucifiction of Jesus). Most of those were pretty successful at the box office, especially "Christ".
Paul Farhi: Fair point(s), but with a couple of teeny quibbles, I think. "Passion" was a "culturally" conservative movie (veneration of literal religious teaching), but not particularly conservative politically. As for "stupid/bad government" themes, that would open up a number of films to being called "conservative." Wouldn't, say, Oliver Stone's "JFK" fit this definition? And would anyone call Stone "conservative"?
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Not Sf, Calif.:"Dirty Harry" was a pretty popular conservative movie. I think the problem is when you try to be conservative first and a movie second. Same reason why "conserative" comic strips tend not to be funny. Garry Trudeau didn't set out to write a liberal comic strip, it just comes out that way because that's who he is, Whereas "Mallard Fillmore" is not funny not because it has a conservative view, but because all of its punchlines are a variation of "Boy, aren't liberals stupid?". Same reason why Fox's attempt at a conservative version of "The Daily Show" is a flop. You have to start with something real and let others decide if it's "liberal" or "conservative".
Paul Farhi: Well said, NSFC. This explains, too, why "American Carol" isn't funny. It loads all of its pro-conservative/anti-lib baggage at the front of the screen, then seeks to build a movie around it. Should have been the other way around.
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Alexandria, Va.: Your story about McCain's first marriage was enlightening. They were only married a little over two years before he was imprisoned for 5 1/2? It had to be incredibly difficult to rebuild that relationship. I still don't think he should have been dating Cindy while still married to Carol, but I am little more understanding of it. And I say all this as an Obama supporter.
Paul Farhi: Personally, I can't, and won't, judge. Can anyone really understand the mysteries of the human heart from the outside? (Heck, people often don't understand them from the inside). And when you lay some extreme circumstances on to John and Carol's marriage--his imprisonment, her terrible car accident--you're really creating an extremely complicated emotional terrain. I'm standing clear.
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Leesburg, Va.: Unlike Carol McCain, who's faded into obscurity, Jane Wyman was the star of her own TV show during the Reagan administration. Can't get much different than that.
Paul Farhi: Yeah, well, Carol wasn't really a "public" person like Jane Wyman, so not a fair basis of comparison. But Carol seems to have done perfectly well for herself; she held a series of administrative/managerial jobs in Washington and Philadelphia in the years after the divorce, and did fine, by all accounts.
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UPS guy: Is anyone else sick of the guy on the UPS commercials?
Paul Farhi: I think I am, but then I get mesmerized by how straight and fast that guy can draw. And I'm sucked in again...
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Normalizing Palin?: Paul, Will Ferrell has said that he, at least in part, regrets his George W. Bush impression years ago. He felt like his impression made Bush palatable to more Americans, or at least made them less concerned about his actual credentials because, well, he was hilarious. He was Will Ferrell.
Do you think there is any danger of Fey's beloved sketches making Palin more acceptable to American voters?
Paul Farhi: That's very interesting. This may explain why Ferrell made those very anti-Bush videos (post-SNL) that are all over the Interweb...But as for Fey, I don't think it's the same thing. She's highlighting all of Palin's "negatives"--her evasive answers, her non-answers, her non-sensical answers. Very bad for Ms. P., I think.
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Re: SNL: I don't know -- Andy Samburg is someone that I really want to like, but the more skits I see him in, the more I think that the "Chronicles of Narnia" short or the one with Justin Timberlake were the exceptions rather than the rule on his funny-ness factor. Many of his other shorts such as the one last week, or "laser cats" I find just dumb and hard to not fast forward through.
Paul Farhi: Yeah, some of the shorts have flopped, but if check the list of what has aired in the past 3(?) years, you'll find that he (and his collaborators) have a pretty high batting average. I mean, relative to the number of SNL skits that can be deemed winners, the digital shorts are out of the park. How about Peyton Manning for Boys and Girls Clubs?
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Washington, D.C.: I think that "Rambo" was a conservative movie that did well at the box office. The Dirty Harry movies, as well as some other movies of the early 1970s, did well with a message that sometimes vigilantism is necessary to clean up the streets.
Of course, none of those movies was a comedy. I mean, not intentionally.
Paul Farhi: Right. And Charles Bronson's "Death Wish" movies got there before Dirty Harry did on the clean-up-the-streets theme. But, you know, if law-and-order themes qualify a movie as "conservative," isn't every cop movie a conservative movie? Seems like a pretty loose definition.
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Springfield, Va.: I have FiOS and the OnDemand feature is quite extensive. It is as good or mre than I had with Cox a few years ago before I switched. Not sure what the previous poster is talking about.
Paul Farhi: Ah. Thank you. FiOS back on in the Farhi household. Now, if I could only convince Verizon to build in my neighborhood...
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Herndon, Va.: Mr. F: My memory tells me "The Green Berets" was a financially successful movie. (I had the joy of watching it in Vietnamw ith some Special Forces types in the audience -- they were either cheering or laughing hysterically at errors in the movie).
Paul Farhi: I just checked Boxofficemojo.com, which keeps records of the theatrical performance of thousands of movies. Unfortunately, "Green Berets" gets an "N/A" in terms of its box office results. But it does say it was released on July 4, 1968. And darn if it isn't fondly remembered, as you suggest. A real document of its time, of a sort.
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South Riding, Va.: Actually, your article made me sympathize just a smidgeon with McCain, once I learned that he did make an effort to provide materially for his jilted wife and their kids. They both had traumatic experiences, and that's hard on even the healthiest marriage. I still don't care for him or his treatment of women, but I think that at least in this case, he tried to do some right by her.
Paul Farhi: This seems to be the case. And Carol has never complained, as far as I know.
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U.P., MI ... again: Forrest Gump really impressed me as a movie with not-to-well cloaked conservative voice to it. Especially when the girl (Jenny?) goes the hippy route to certain tragedy.
Paul Farhi: Really? Was never aware of "Forrest Gump's" politics. Maybe that was its political genius!
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RE: Isn't every cop movie a conservative movie?: Not every cop movie is so dismissive of courts or constitutional protections against wrongful prosecution.
Paul Farhi: Yeah, that whole habeus corpus/innocent-until-proven-guilty thing. Sooo inconvenient...
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Jane and Ron vs. Carol and John: Big difference: Jane Wyman dumped Ronald Reagan because she found his interest in politics boring. I don't think Ron even met Nancy till some time later. John McCain, on the other hand, was cheating on Carol for many months before the divorce proceedings even began. In fact, that's what caused them.
Paul Farhi: You may be right, but I'm not clear on that. I got conflicting information about how much Carol knew about John's cheating during the later stages of the marriage. Again, you don't know what was going on between them. I'm not condoning infidelity, mind you. I AM saying that the marriage might have been over, for all practical if not legal purposes, long before the subject of divorce or infidelity ever came up.
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Enuf: Tina Fey's impersonation is great. But, I find it bizarre how much news coverage it gets. All of the networks show it, I hear excerpts on WTOP and NPR...what gives? Why is a skit considered so newsworthy? (My theory: It's easier for stations to write stories about this than to go out and report, um, real news.)
Paul Farhi: Well, it's just darn entertaining. Who doesn't want to see/hear that? And it's vaguely newsworthy, too, given the campaign...
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Conservative movies and TV: Wasn't "Forrest Gump" essentially a conservative movie? And on TV, what about all those Jerry Bruckheimer crime procedurals?
Paul Farhi:"CSI" is conservative? How?
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What Might Be Illegal: Is that your way of saying you're not coming after me when I launch my new station Farhi 1580?
Paul Farhi: Vaya con dios, mi amigo.*
*Translation: The Federal Copyright Act of 1947 imposes severe penalties for the unauthorized use of another's name or likeness. Our attorneys will be in touch.
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On the other hand...:...Perry Mason was a truly subversive series (both on TV and in the original novels), because the accused was (almost) always innocent. Interesting that it flourished during the McCarthy red-baiting era.
Paul Farhi: Now wait a second. "Perry Mason" was liberal because it accorded basic rights to the accused? Are you saying that conservatives are defined as those who have no respect for the Constitution? (And no fair answering, "Dick Cheney").
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re: I have FiOS and the OnDemand feature is quite extensive: I'm not talking about movies. I'm talking about seeing series OnDemand on FX ("It's always Sunny"), BBC, TBS, etc. Richmond does NOT have BBC OnDemand, does NOT have Fx OnDemand
Paul Farhi: Different cable systems, different OnDemand offerings, I guess.
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Frederick, Md. I hope the election results will send Lipstick and Six-Pack back to Alaska. She crammed for the VP debate, but it was too little, too late (wink). And would someone please take her to the salon to cut her bangs!
Paul Farhi: The bang thing is a completely cheap shot, Frederick! (But, um, yeah, I commented on the same thing about five minutes in, too. Very distracting).
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Followup Question:"And it's vaguely newsworthy, too, given the campaign." No, the debates or the interviews are newsworthy. The satire of the debates are...entertainment. I'm not saying they're not hilarious. (They are.) But, it ain't news. And, this is often where the news media gets in trouble with accusations of bias: They confuse news and entertainment -- the latter often reflecting the biases of its creator.
Paul Farhi: I think you have a rather narrow definition of news. Those parodies reach millions of viewers, and might have some impact on perception (as we noted earlier). Fair game, I say. And, equal time wise, Fred Armisen's imitation of Obama and Amy Poehler's Hillary were covered pretty well, too.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.: One reason for the extensive news coverage Maybe of Tina Fey's impression of Sarah Palin is that it affords a painless way for viewers to relive some of Palin's worst moments, sort of the "spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down" school of reporting. More effective than journalistic bombast which turns off those who disagree.
Paul Farhi: Good point--we sometimes learn more through satire than through facts. And by the way, Jason Sudeikis' Joe Biden wasn't exactly flattering, either.
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"Perry Mason" was liberal because it accorded basic rights to the accused?: No, no, no. Because the message was that DA Hamilton Burger (Hamburger, get it?) was almost always wrong. Unlike the DAs on crime procedurals (Bruckheimer and Dick Wolf), who are usually right.
Paul Farhi: But doesn't that make it "anti-establishment" more than "liberal"? I mean, "Perry"/Perry took on the system, and showed that the system wasn't always right (in fact, it was NEVER right, since Perry always won). But conservatives challenge the system all the time. That doesn't mean challenging the system is owned by a particular ideology, does it?
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Bangs: I realize from your photo that you're not exactly conversant with bangs. But on women of a certain age they help conceal forehead wrinkles, especially in combination with Botox. Ever notice how many older famous women wear bangs? There's a reason...
Paul Farhi: Hahahaha. Oh, back in the day, I could put David Cassidy to shame!
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Silver Spring, Md.: SNL: they sliced up Gwen pretty well too.
Paul Farhi: True dat.
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Adopting kids: I think that McCain's adopting of Carol's kids was just more common to do at that time. It's my understanding that when couples split in the early 60s, the relationship between dads and their kids were often severed too. It happened in my family -- my father adopted my mom's kid from her first marriage when they got married in 1963.
Finally, count me among those that Fey's Palin becomes as quaint as Ross Perot. Please oh please...
Paul Farhi: Possible. But I'm not really sure...
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What did Cindy see in John?: I can understand how John McCain would have been attracted to a beautiful 25-year-old multi-million dollar heiress. But what did she see in a 43-year-old broken-down married man? What did her family think of her dating a guy so much older? Mine would've packed me off to a convent if I'd tried a stunt like that?
Paul Farhi: I wondered about that, too. Her family absolutely embraced him. I guess he was dashing and charming, and seemed smart and stable and mature. And--again by all accounts--he really was head over heels about her (and vice versa). Hard to argue against all those qualities, if you're her mom or dad.
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Re Carol and Nancy: Paul, you are indeed right. Jane filed for divorce in 1947 and Reagan met Nancy in 1948. However, Reagan is the only president to have ever been divorced and if McCain is elected, he follows in his footsteps. I can't believe I'm looking this stuff up at work but for some reason I can't stop! Also, I've heard of John McCain's temper and saw a clip of him berating a questioner at a town hall meeting. Think we'll get to see that John McCain tonight? And why hasn't SNL done skits on this?
Paul Farhi: Thanks for that (I TOLD you you people know everything). And, no, of course we won't see that tonight. And I doubt we'll see it on SNL, either. This temper thing has been SAID about John McCain, but very few people have ever seen it (if indeed it's true). So it would be hard to satirize something that people are so vague about.
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re: Hard to argue against all those qualities, if you're her mom or dad. : Au contraire: my dad would have punched any married man in the nose if he was courting me! And then he would have given me a long talk about morals and ethics and personal choices.
Paul Farhi: Oh, the married thing. Um...yeah...forgot about that. Yeah, he'd have to sell his impending divorce pretty hard, wouldn't he, to make her folks happy about that? If indeed his divorce WAS pending....
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You Hit the Nail on the Head:"we sometimes learn more through satire than through facts." Because the media does a lousy job of reporting the facts. Because it takes time away from real news and reports on skits. I'd like to see the time wasted on rebroadcasting the Sarah Palin skit we've all seen refocused on reporting on the economic crisis.
Paul Farhi: Actually, "the media" does a perfectly fine job of reporting the facts since every single fact you or I know about McCain, Palin, Obama, etc. was brought to you by "the media."
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SNL : I'd say if the Dems win, they've got the Biden parody down pat(the whole thing about Jon McCain being his "dear friend who happens to be completely deranged" was lovely). But hey REALLY need to get someone who can do Obama -- they are falling way short there.
Paul Farhi: Agree. I'm not a big fan of Armisen's Obama. He's got some physical similarity, but he's wrong on the voice and mannerisms. I wonder if it's too late to make a call to the bullpen and bring in Hammond.
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Fairfax, Va.: The thing about Sarah Palin and the SNL skits is that Palin is just soooooooo parody-able. Her personality, use of language, and mannerisms are over-the-top add beg for satire.
Paul Farhi: Of course! Would you want to watch SNL if they DIDN'T parody her? What would be the point?
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Meridian Hill, Washingtonl, D.C.:"I think you have a rather narrow definition of news. Those parodies reach millions of viewers, and might have some impact on perception (as we noted earlier)."
I take issue with this as well, at least in part. Your rationale seems (perhaps unintentionally) to give credence to the idea that what celebrities do and think is generally "newsworthy" because they're popular and reach millions. But you'll also recall that there was quite a bit of speculation about whether or not Fey would perform the impression in the first place. That "will she or won't she?" coverage certainly is not news but was treated as such (as are the reports that she may continue to reprise the role).
Paul Farhi: Well, personally, I'm glad "the news" isn't only about economic collapse, war and politics. I'm glad there's room to consider (or just show) how the culture is responding to those who want to lead us. If nothing else, it "lightens up" the news, which is so ugly and grim and scary these days. But it does more than provide counter-programming. It also enables us to see a reflection of ourselves, or of the news itself. That's valuable because it helps to see the news in a new light. Signed....a guy who works in the Style section.
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Once again blaming the Jews for the crucifiction of Jesus: Okay, I'm a recovering Catholic, but I also have an MA in theology and a Ph.D. in history and historically speaking, from what we have that survived that time, they were responsible, along with the Roman government. The issue is whether a grudge should be held or whether Jews should be forever in damnation, all sane Catholics and Christians would not agree with. But yes, historically, the Jewish leaders saw him as a threat to their power within the Roman State and made plans to have him arrested, prosecuted and executed. Nothing wrong with that, no need for a religious war, just the facts. Going in as a skeptic, I thought the movie did a good job and did not go out of its way to condemn any and all Jews as a whole.
Paul Farhi: Uh oh.... This can of worms will have to wait until next week. But we will, or at least we can, open it then. In the meantime, I'll give you a word to consider: "Religulous." Discuss....Next week, we'll all hand in our term papers on this topic. Same time, same classroom. Be there. Aloha....And in the meantime, regards to all! --Paul.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 7, 2008 Tuesday 12:00 PM EST
Chatological Humor: Dogs, Palin, Mencken and a Little Advice for the Lovelorn (UPDATED 10.8.08);
aka Tuesdays With Moron
BYLINE: Gene Weingarten, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 8687 words
HIGHLIGHT: DAILY UPDATES: WED
DAILY UPDATES: WED
Gene Weingarten's humor column, Below the Beltway, appears every Sunday in The Washington Post magazine. It is syndicated nationally by the Washington Post Writers Group.
At one time or another, Below the Beltway has managed to offend persons of both sexes as well as individuals belonging to every religious, ethnic, regional, political and socioeconomic group. If you know of a group we have missed, please write in and the situation will be promptly rectified. "Rectified" is a funny word.
On Tuesdays at noon, Weingarten is online to take your questions and abuse. He will chat about anything. Although this chat is updated regularly throughout the week, it is not and never will be a "blog," even though many persons keep making that mistake. One reason for the confusion is the Underpants Paradox: Blogs, like underpants, contain "threads," whereas this chat contains no "threads" but, like underpants, does sometimes get funky and inexcusable.
Submit your questions, comments and other detritus before or during the discussion.
Important, secret note to readers: The management of The Washington Post apparently does not know this chat exists, or it would have been shut down long ago. Please do not tell them. Thank you.
Weingarten is also the author of "The Hypochondriac's Guide to Life. And Death" and co-author of "I'm with Stupid," with feminist scholar Gina Barreca.
New to Chatological Humor? Read the FAQ.
P.S. If composing your questions in Microsoft Word please turn off the Smart Quotes functionality. I haven't the time to edit them out. -- Liz
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Gene Weingarten: Good afternoon.
Here is our Holy Crap moment of the day:
On Sunday, the Post magazine printed an excerpt from Old Dogs, which chronicled the life and death of my dog Harry. In the accompanying editor's column, Tom the Butcher wrote about his fears of losing Sally, his nine-year-old lab-hound mix. The column included a picture of Sally.
On Sunday morning, Chatwoman opened up the magazine and her jaw dropped. She fired off an email to Tom:
"My dog, Page, is the same age as your Sally -- we adopted her in the fall of 1999 -- and bears an uncanny resemblance to Sally. Page was originally named "Stacey" by the Rappahannock Animal Welfare League, who had found her in a pound in rural Page County, Va. (hence her name). She's a lab-hound mix. Here's a pic of Page.
---
This was Tom's response:
"We got Sally also from the Rappahannock Animal Welfare League! She was born sometime in the summer of 1999. That's a pretty big coincidence. How many times have you seen that pink nose? Wow, my guess is they are sisters! They found her wandering around in some semi-rural Virginia county. Is Page around 40 lbs? Does she run with her nose to the ground?"
--
This was Liz's response:
"Yep, about 40 pounds and that nose is ALWAYS on the ground. Which is why it takes us an hour to get around the neighborhood."
Sisters. I'd bet on it.
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The book excerpt got a lot of mail, many with attached photos of bygone old dogs. One of the best was from Lisa Laparan, who wrote about her little dog, Chuck, and included two pictures. This is Chuck at 4 months. And this is Chuck at 16 years.
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The first dog profiled in the book was Honey, a female pit bull who lives in my neighborhood. In the final year of Harry's life, Honey was his only outside interest; the two dogs would trudge together side by side for blocks, hardly interacting but content in each other's company. Honey -- who, at nine, was much younger -- would slowing her pace so that Harry could keep up. Because Harry's romantic interests had always been for males, I compared this pairing to what happens when an old gay man returns to his wife to end their time together on a porch under and embroidered lap shawl.
They've come full circle now. Honey died yesterday, peacefully, the way all dogs should.
There are 63 dogs profiled in the book; all were between 10 and 17 years old when Michael Williamson photographed them, and some of the pictures were taken as long as two and a half years ago. Anticipating the inevitable question, in the intro of the book we wrote that if anyone wants to know how many of the dogs are still alive, our answer will be: "All of them." Honey, too.
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Many, many Jewish people wrote in last week to defend their synagogues' practice of selling seats for the High Holy Day services, pointing out, correctly, that synagogues do not pass collection plates since observant Jews cannot deal with money on the Sabbath. It's a completely reasonable means of fundraising and to any extent that I implied otherwise, I apologize. By way of abject atonement, and in the spirit of the season, I hereby present this as today's CLOD. It was submitted by Andrew Hoenig.
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Please take Today's Poll. Yes, there are correct answers, which I will obnoxiously reveal midway through the chat.
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A poor comics week was rescued by a strong Sunday: CPOW is Sunday's Doonesbury, First Runner-Up: Thursday's Doonesbury. Honorables: Sunday's Zits, Sunday's Argyle Sweater.
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Unsa, ID: You didn't say "Okay, let's go," so I'm not sure if the chat has started.
Gene Weingarten: Okay, let's go.
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Washington, D.C.: I clicked on the poll, read it in its entirety, read it a second time, then closed it without voting.
I know that quirky is your schtick, but that just sucked. The very idea of putting those thoughts and those words to music is an insult to music. Never mind that there was nothing profound in all that. I've seen pithier, more thoughtful bumper stickers. On Republicans' cars. I didn't read a single one of those lines without an annoyed "hunh?" Rather than "brilliant", "true", and "funny", I might have included a category for "most likely to have been written by a college freshman newspaper columnist desperately wishing to be seen as politically active and insightful, but failing."
I'm sure that if you post my comment, you'll include some sort of slur on my intelligence (or maybe my looks or state of sexual satisfaction). I get that; she's your friend. Have at it.
Gene Weingarten: Hardly.
I acknowledge you are a person of average intelligence.
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Falls Church, Va.: After three great years together, my boyfriend proposed last spring. Marrying him is something that I had thought about for a long time, and was sure I wanted. Now that we've been engaged for a little while, traits that had annoyed me are grating on my nerves like never before. It's all litlle things (like that he has the worst taste in television, repeats the same corny jokes over and over, and talks to our dog in a baby voice), but it's nothing that has changed about him at his core. And all the important things (honest, easy to talk to, fun to be with and good in bed) are still there. But when I think about having to hear the same punchline a thousand more times I want to throw something at his head. Is this something that can chalked up to nerves, or a sign that I'm about to marry the wrong person? We're in our mid-30s if it matters.
Gene Weingarten: I am going to put this up to the group. I am thinking it is a sign you are marrying the wrong person.
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Rhetoric and Responsibility: Gene: Reports are coming out in the news that the McCain/Palin supporters at their rallies are getting so fired up about the anti-Obama rhetoric that pushes boundaries even in the no-holds barred environment of politics that it is eliciting racist and violent remarks, so much so that one person even shouted out "Kill him!" in response to a Palin comment. So here is my question: To what extent should Palin and/or McCain or ANY of their surrogates be responsible for violence either toward Obama himself, minorities or other supporters that arise from their comments? On one hand, I generally believe that McCain/Palin are not responsible for the actions of any of their listeners/supporters, but on the other hand, they clearly INTEND to incite a fair amount of hatred against Obama as part of their tactics, so should they be held to account for the consequences?
Gene Weingarten: I think this is all going to backfire immediately. I think the electorate is scared and wants and adult. I don't think they want to hear the tooth gnashings.
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Alexandria, Va.: So...Governer Palin did better than I expected, but what is with the winking? This is a Vice presidential debate - we are choosing the back-up for the president of the most powerful country in the world. This is not a time for winking and shout-outs to Joe Six-Pack. It was like watching a high school debate where a popular girl is running for class president. I'm sorry, but this is a serious time in this country. People are losing homes, jobs, life savings and their lives and she's WINKING at the camera. What is up with that?
Gene Weingarten: I think her entire candidacy comes off as a satire. It exactly the satire Mencken was referencing in that first quote.
This is the inevitable endpoint of a TV-era presidential marketing process that for 50 years has been emphasizing style over substance and "narrative" over experience.
Actually, the same process gave us Barack Obama, I suppose, only we lucked out with that one. In addition to narrative, he has depth, intelligence, reflection, judgment and temperament.
Palin, however, seems the perfect distillate of everything flashy and nothing important. I know the McCain implosion is being driven mostly by the economy, but I am thinking that there's some Sarah in there, too. I think, finally, Americans are understanding they've been handed a pig in a poke. With or without lipstick.
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Gene Weingarten: The disturbing thing about the Palin Pit bull tour is the degree of angry nationalistic fervor. I will not make the fascism connection, I will leave that to others.
I think it would be scary, but I think it is going to implode. I don't think we're that stupid.
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Cuzzins: I thought the relatives/cousins quote in the poll was brilliant. I also thought it was funny. According to the masses, I couldn't be more wrong.
Gene Weingarten: One of my favorites in there! I will soon be explain, patiently, which the best are.
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McLean, Va.: I emailed you this a year ago this week. (I think it got caught in the Vista wormhole, because I know you would have responded if you saw it.)
My parents are putting my 18-year old dog to sleep today. I am 30. This means I got this dog when I was in the 7th grade. He was there for those awkward junior high years, a move to a different state, all of those crazy high school years, college, entering the workforce, getting married, and now having my first child. That is a very long time. Even though he has lived with my parents all these years, and I have only seen him on visits, he is my dog, the dog that I picked out at the shelter, the dog that fit in one hand when we brought him home, the only dog I've ever met that sucked his thumb and never barked. From now on, everything that happens will fall into the after-Tuffy era. I don't even know what to make of that.
Tuffy's ashes now sit on my dresser. My question for you in the year 1AT is this: My husband has never owned a pet. He says he can't do it, because he know he would have to go through losing it at some point and there is no reason to volunteer for that. How can I convince him that it is completely worth it, so that we (and our children), can one day own a dog?
Are you doing any book signings, so I can come give you a big hug?
Gene Weingarten: The book is out in stores and available on Amazon, but I'm not sure about signings yet, other than a presentation Michael Williamson and I are going to do on Oct. 30. My guess is a few will be scheduled closer to Christmas.
Your weapon with your husband is the children. Children need pets, to help them understand love. This argument has the dual advantage of helping your cause and being true.
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Op, US: I can't believe Berke Breathed is retiring...again.
Seriously, I was a huge fan as a high school student, a moderate fan as a college student, and a passing fan as an adult. I mean, it's a character-driven strip that hasn't been daily for nearly 20 years, so it's not like we had much opportunity to get re-attached for the last three. I just can't get choked up the way I would for, say, Trudeau or like I did for Larson or Watterston. Or like I did for Breathed, twice already.
Gene Weingarten: Well, Berkeley has been teasing us for weeks now. It's no surprise.
I liked Opus, and it remains one of the best drawn strips on the comics pages, and I will miss it. But I think the decision to go Sunday-only may hae doomed it from the start. It's very hard to gain traction without a daily dose of your characters, particularly, as you say, with a character-driven strip.
I began to feel that Berkeley's heart was not entirely in this latest enterprise when more than once we found ourselves looking at recycled Bloom County gags.
Gene Weingarten: But: Week after week, Opus delivered some of the best sky-is-falling allegorical hang-wringing about the political hypocrisy afoot in our land. It's not a voice I would vote to lose and I'm sorry to see it go.
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Manassas, Va.: How do you know Harry came from a puppy mill?
And how do you define "puppy mill"?
Gene Weingarten: Harry came with papers. The name of the place was something like the Happy Valley Dog Gestation Camp.
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Pic, KY: Gene, After reading your essay in this Sunday's Magazine, I realized you were the perfect person to offer advice on a dilemma I'm currently facing. My new boyfriend (3 months) is a great guy - very attractive, funny, incredibly intelligent, and great to be around. He is, as they say, something special. There's just one problem...he's deathly allergic to cats and dogs, and has been his whole life. He's tried allergy shots, all sorts of medications, and nothing has worked. I have cats, and every time he's been to my place he's ended up feeling ill and short of breath. It's obviously frustrating to me, and it's frustrating to him as well; he likes animals, but simply can't be around them. I've always assumed that pets would be a part of my life, but he's a really great person who has, as they say, "long term potential." (Apologies for using such a terrible phrase.) So what would you advise this cat & dog-loving 26-year-old to do?
Gene Weingarten: You have a difficult decision, as you know. Make it soon.
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Alexandria, Va.: Please explain to me why my three-year-old niece is afraid of an animatronic dinosaur, but is curious about a dead body in a casket.
Gene Weingarten: You can't be scared by a dead body until you have a sense of what death is. You don't need any existential help to be scared of a lizard with big teeth.
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Somewhere in Georgia: I guess this makes me elitist, but if I had used Gov. Palin's lazy brand of English is such a formal setting, I'd hear it from my mother for days. One thing she (and the rest of the adults in my family) always stressed was speaking clearly, ending my "ing" words with the actual "ing" sound, and avoiding slang. I absolutely detest her folksiness --- why did I work all those years to speak like an adult when she can go on national TV and sound like that?
Gene Weingarten: Sarah is appealing to the least of us.
I woke up this morning intending to write an ode to the people who are supporters of Sarah, who think her candidacy are a good idea. I'm still mulling the contours of it.
These are people who have the lowest possible expectations for our country.
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Baltimore, Md.: Gene, Is it just me or did Krauthammer endorse Obama on Friday? With an enormous backhand, but still...
Gene Weingarten: I read it as such, yes. I think he would call it predictive, not advocative. I call it advocative.
We've already heard similarly from George Will.
I believe that the right thing to do in this election is becoming plain to many, many people.
Also, plain is an anagram of Palin.
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Pal, IN: A submission for the CLOD.
washingtonpost.com: Language not safe for work.
Gene Weingarten: Not bad. Some excellent lines, like the Putin one.
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Shameless flatte, RY: Gene,
My 16-year-old daughter read the story about Harry in the magazine on Sunday and was absolutely charmed! (Unless you've forgotten pretty quickly, it is no small matter to thoroughly impress a 16-year-old.) She even said that she thought that the author, whoever he was, was amazing. I described your accomplishments and attributes as best I could, and mentioned a few other of your more notable offerings, such as the articles about the Great Zucchini and Joshua Bell. However, I can't seem to find them in The Post archives. Can you help a poor mom out? She even summarized your article for her current events class......
washingtonpost.com: They're all here. Right side of the page.
Gene Weingarten: Thankew.
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Pal, IN: I think the best description of Palin's performance is that she still thinks she's competing in a pageant: It's about the toothy grin, the coquettish laugh, and playing to the audience.
Gene Weingarten: And pleasing her handlers. Doing what she was told to do, and dadgumming, getting it all out there before the buzzer.
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Annapolis, Md.: Someone relatively charming came into my place of work last week and talked my ear off about life in general. But then he remarked that he loves to read but can't stand fiction because "anyone can write it." I was taken aback but didn't have a real response.
I have, on my desk, 5 books: The Bhagavad Gita, a couple computer textbooks, a book of local hikes, and a Wodehouse collection. The only work I'd classify as being inimitable is the Wodehouse collection.
So what's your take on this? I pretty much dismissed that visitor as an uninteresting cuckold after the remark.
Gene Weingarten: I read mostly nonfiction.
I've never really understood why until recently. I tend to read fiction competitively: Could I do that? It's nerve-racking.
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Win, KY: Richard Cohen has a good piece on Palin today. I think his comments about the media "grading on a curve" couldn't be more true. Obviously the conservatives were going to say she hit a home run, but I was shocked at how many people said she generally did a an excellent job. Sure, she didn't faint, but if that's as good as she can do...is she really VP worthy? (But then again, look at Cheney)
Another excellent point from Cohen..."Can you imagine the reaction of the press corps if Clinton had given the audience a 'hiya, sailor' wink?"
washingtonpost.com: This Debate's Biggest Loser, ( Post, Oct. 7)
Gene Weingarten: Yep.
She was terrible. Really terrible, not answering questions, being both shallow and transparent, masking her ignorance with folksiness.
We did grade on a curve. I did, too, even in my own mind, until I watched it again.
A really good way to look at it is through the SNL veep debate skit. Liz, can you link?
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Columbia, Md.: To the poster who is concerned that her perfect-but-irritating fiance might not be the one for her, she'd do well to remember that while love is usually the triumph of imagination over intelligence, sometimes your intelligence has to kick in. Speaking purely logically, do you really think there is anyone on the face of the earth who has no habits that will irritate you and grate on your last nerve? Once you've realized that there will always be -something- not-perfect about another person, then you let the imagination part back in--just pretend those irritating habits don't exist (as your fiance probably does already with YOUR irritating habits).
Gene Weingarten: But you know what? It's pretty early in that relationship to be getting annoyed at quirks and mannerisms.
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washingtonpost.com: Tina Fey as Sarah Palin, Take 2
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Dupont Circle: I was talking with someone over the weekend who opined that whomever wins the election will end up being a one-term president, since the situation he will inherit is already so horribly effed-up. What do you think? I don't think (or maybe I hope) that won't be the case; it didn't happen after FDR was elected, and he came into a similar economic vortex of suck.
Gene Weingarten: It won't be the case if the public perceives that the guy is trying. We are, ultimately, fair minded.
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Gene Weingarten: Okay, the poll.
You did quite well, except where you didn't.
The best way to corral this is to pull out the ones that most impress you, and THEN try to figure out why. Doing it that way, I get these five:
Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.
Every man sees in his relatives, and especially in his cousins, a series of grotesque caricatures of himself.
Legend is a lie that has attained the dignity of age.
Puritanism: the haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.
Self-respect: the secure feeling that no one, as yet, is suspicious.
The three most brilliant will inevitably include the one that is most true, because brilliance relies on truth. That one would be democracy-innocence.
The other two brilliant ones are Self-respect and Puritanism, which also happen to be the two funniest.
Any other combination with these five would also be okay. You're welcome.
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Free Advertis, IN: Do you (or Woodward, for that matter) get paid the same when you write about your own books? If so, it may be legit, but seems a bit incestuous, like first cousin marriages.
Gene Weingarten: We are not paid any extra when The Post prints a book excerpt. The Post does pay our publishers a small amount for use of the material, and it does go toward any eventual royalties the book may earn for us, but it's an indirect payment and (at least in my past experience) is never seen by the writer.
So, basically, no double dipping.
The publicity does significantly goose sales of the book, though, particuarly online sales. On Friday, "Old Dogs" was the 12,000th best selling book in the country; this morning it was the 380th.
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Arlington, Va.: So, have TtB and Liz reintroduced the long-lost sister doggies yet?
washingtonpost.com: Dude. It's been less than 48 hours. We need time to plan this thing.
Gene Weingarten: You definitely have to do it. And I predict they will not get along.
Murphy met her sister two WEEKS after being separated as puppies. They had shared a crate.
No recognition. Neither wanted anything to do with the other.
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Re: Cuckold: Why does having a dumb opinion of fiction writers necessarily mean one's wife is unfaithful? Is there another definition of "cuckold"?
Gene Weingarten: IT was an odd word to use, I agree. Does the poster wish to elaborate?
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Ethic, AL: On "competitive reading":
I've been commissioned to write a review of a well-known author's work for a national publication. As it's my first time doing this, I have to ask: I don't know the author personally, but I do know several of his competitors for shelf space and the public dollar in the same genre. What should I disclose in the review?
Gene Weingarten: You need disclose nothing.
I benefit not at all if a competitor's work is panned.
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Reston, Va.: I was invited to participate in a paid (!) focus group recently. The big question, and the one I failed, was whether I was absolutely decided on who I'm voting for in four weeks.
My mother, of all people, said I should have lied and participated anyway. While it might have been fun to see what was asked and hear others' answers, I don't think it would have been right (although I strongly considered it). What say you?
Gene Weingarten: It would have been dishonest, as dishonest as being seated on a jury if your mind was already made up. Focus group organizers take their jobs seriously.
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Germantown, MD: From Joyce's "Ulysses":
His own image to a man with that queer thing genius is the standard of all experience, material and moral. ... The images of other males of his blood will repel him. He will see in them grotesque attempts of nature to foretell or to repeat himself.
Gene Weingarten: Interesting. I wonder which came first, Mencken or Joyce? They were writing in similar times.
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America: To all the talking heads who think Palin won or held her own or exceeded expectations but can't understand the polls that show she lost by a large margin, here is a short but sweet analysis: Voters found her charming and refreshing, and no way do we want that lunatic anywhere near the White House.
Gene Weingarten: She's not a lunatic.
She's a lightweight.
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Palin's Wink, IN: The last time a woman winked at me, she took me into her bed that night. I swear, when Palin winks they should just run a crawl that says "1-900-DO ME NOW".
Was Palin intentionally sexualizing the debate, or perhaps her appeal?
Gene Weingarten: She reminded me of Tina Fey, cocking her imaginary moose rifle.
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Reston, Va.: Gene, any possibility that The Argyle Sweater is actually written by Gary Larson? I know immitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but come on.
Gene Weingarten: There have been several blatant ripoffs of The Far Side; Argyle is one of the better ones. I doubt if the artist would deny it.
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Washington, D.C.: Is there any reason why you can't buy 32 inch jeans and fold the bottom up an inch? It's not like you are a fashion plate and would be concerned that Tim Gunn would take you to task the next time he visited DC.
washingtonpost.com: Yeah, Gene. Can't you just wear a barrel and quit whining?
Gene Weingarten: I would have to rename myself Elmer.
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Monkey County: Mwa ha ha ha ha! Welcome to the jeans hell women go through every time we shop.
You are looking for inseams that don't exist. We are looking for the same, except ours aren't so nicely labeled with wasit/inseam. No, we have to try on dozens of pairs to find out that they don't exist. We have Mystery Size X which is actually the same size as Mystery Size Y in another brand, and neither fit just right. In some jeans, I need to wear "relaxed fit" (fat) jeans. In others, I wear "natural fit" (what is that?) or "regular fit" and in one brand I even fit into "slim". Boot cut, tapered leg, flare leg, long, petite, regular length, low waist, ultra low waist, "comfort" waist... All different for different brands, and none of them tell me what I need to know. I'd buy men's jeans in retaliation except they are designed for people without hips. And the weird part of this whole story is that I'm an average sized woman. Taller than average, but not unusually so, not very fat, not very slim, not very bottom heavy, not very top heavy. Still can't find clothes that fit just right. I can't imagine what the women who don't fall into the average range do!
Last time I found a pair of jeans that fit I bought the three they had in the store and ordered another four of the website, all identical. I suggest you stockpile yours if you ever find them again.
Gene Weingarten: I've gotten about 20 posts from women expressing exactly this sentiment. This said it best.
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I Like Lav, IN: After I took the poll, I contacted Christine Lavin through her Web site. My daughter is doing a project on Mencken this semester, and I was hoping I could find a link for a recording of the song, which the kid clearly needed to hear. Christine exchanged some email with me and sent me the lyrics and a link to an early draft recording of the song. I never expected anything like that -- I just hoped for her web guru to maybe point out something obvious that I had missed on the site. I think Christine is just great. Everybody reading this chat should run right over to Amazon or her web site and buy multiple copies of all her recordings, and her children's book, too. Go! Now!
Mencken's pretty good, too. His responsiveness to fans has had a definite up-tick since his demise in the 50's.
Gene Weingarten: Christine Lavin is as down-to-earth an artist as you're ever going to find. A relentlessly nice person.
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Great new word: One of my favorite things from the SNL skit was Fey/Palin using the word "mavericky." Fabulous.
Gene Weingarten: And her final sop to the people playing the drinking game.
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Palin Lovers: I live in Tyler, Texas. People here love Sarah Palin. They've explained it to me, but I still don't understand why. If you're interested in understanding her supporters, check out our local paper, the Tyler Morning Telegraph (tylerpaper.com), and scroll through the comments sections.
Be careful, though. The same people who love Palin also think the financial crisis was brought about by banks being forced to make loans to minorities.
Gene Weingarten: WEll, that sort of explains it, doesn't it.
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Hummingbird to Mars: As the paragon of journalistic integrity who killed his cover story because of improper sourcing, what do you think of Jason Wilson writing about the "underground" dining club that he attended (including revealing their location) right after being told by them that press weren't allowed to write about their experience at the club or disclose their location?
How does he get away with something like that while your story is doomed to sit in a vault for all eternity?
Gene Weingarten: I don't know anything about the background of this story, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that this was a nudge-nudge wink-wink deal, and the proprietors are not at all upset that their "secret" "got out."
The whole silly conceit of these "speakeasies" is that they are secret and naughty. They are neither. This story is more than they could have asked for.
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Dogtown, Ark.: So, did you have any trouble getting the term "son of a bitch" into the paper, or is context the great justifier? Or is SOB now accepted as a fairly mild epiphet, not inappropriate for a newspaper?
Gene Weingarten: The line in question was from the story about Harry. Here it is in context:
The product of a Kansas puppy mill, son of a bitch named Taffy Sioux, Harry had been sold to us as a yellow Labrador retriever. I suppose it was technically true, but only in the sense that Tic Tacs are technically "food." Harry's lineage was suspect. He wasn't the square, shiny, elegant type of Labrador you can envision in the wilds of Canada on a hunting trip for ducks. He was the shape of a baked potato, with the color and luster of an inter-office envelope. You could envision him in the wilds of suburban Toledo, on a hunting trip for nuggets of dried food in a carpet.
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I think we can all agree that this context, and only this context, permitted its publication in The Washington Post. And yes, it was something of a subversive coup.
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Re: Was Palin intentionally sexualizing the debate: To me the winking wasn't sexy, it was aging trailer park waitress desperate. Think of Flo from the ole TV show, an aging honey with a teased beehive, smacking gum and bedding truckers.
Gene Weingarten: Yes!
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Springfield, Va.: Fantastic excerpt from the book. Very moving. I was almost crying at the end, and I'm not one to usually get that touched by writing.
I am beginning to suspect that you're a better serious writer than you are a humor writer. The quality of your long pieces is always better than the humor of your columns. The one where you rode a bus in Jerusalem is still my favorite.
Bathroom question: I went to the movies over the weekend (Burn After Reading was disappointing). In the men's room, I saw an odd thing. One man decided that to use the urinal, he had to pull down his pants and underwear to his knees. So he's standing there, his posterior out for all to see.
The shorts appeared to be like athletic shorts, without a convenient opening, but they could have most likely been pulled down just enough, not to the knees. Is this a common practice?
Gene Weingarten: I've seen this a couple of times and it always makes me think of George Constanza.
We need to discuss Burn After Reading. I thought it was brilliant. So did Tom the Butcher. We have no idea why the critical consensus was negative and we together took the elitist position that no one understood it but us.
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Bethesda, Md.: I'm not sure if I want to do what this article suggests in the last line.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you.
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Not Laughing: Ok, I'm no longer laughing at Palin. Her vitriolic words at rallies are really starting to worry me. We have a nutso faction in this country, and if she can incite someone to yell "kill him" and another to spew racist epithets at a news cameraman (see Milbank's column today), it's a troubling issue. I can't believe the Republican party at large is happy with this. I certainly plan to let my thoughts be known, to my republican representative and any and all news media I can. It's ugly and scary.
Gene Weingarten: This is, at this point, a desperate, losing campaign. I predict the polls with continue to diverge, and not close up.
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Washington, D.C.: Did you read Milbank's article today? Oh my gosh, I usually laugh all the way through his pieces and the insane things he quotes people saying, but todays just scares the crap outta me. I think Palin might have contracted Rabies recently.
washingtonpost.com: Unleashed, Palin Makes a Pit Bull Look Tame, ( Post, Oct. 7)
Gene Weingarten: To paraphrase David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, from a few weeks ago when McCain was riding high: There's the usual hand-wringing and bed-wetting. We're not worried.
We can relax. This spasm is temporary.
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Winchester, Va.: Gene,
I need reassurance. Over the course of this interminable election I felt we were making progress on the race relations front. Even people who wouldn't personally vote for Obama seemed resigned to, or even ok with, the possibility of an African-American president. Tell me the last four weeks of the campaign isn't going to undo all that.
Gene Weingarten: That's what I'm telling you. Relax.
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Vienna, Va.: I think your prediction that Sally and Page will not bond is wrong, but only because Sally never met a dog she didn't love. I also secretly think she'll smell a sibling in there somehow. Hopefully, Liz and I will make this happen and we can report back.
washingtonpost.com: Page can be a little skittish when it comes to other doggies but I'm hopeful. She loves her dog-in-law bandit, another 9-year-old.
Gene Weingarten: I'm sure the two of you can work it out.
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Anonymous: You predict the polls will continue to diverge. Didn't you also predict McCain would dump Palin as his running mate?
Gene Weingarten: Yes. I am always wrong.
Except: I said, three months ago, that this election was going to be a landslide. It may be my first good call.
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Washington, D.C.: I also noticed Palin quit scrunching her nose during the debate. I think the wink was a replacement tic.
Gene Weingarten: That was her Bewitched nose-twitch.
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Washington, D.C.: Gee, Gene, great advice to that woman with the fiancee with "the worst taste in television, [who] repeats the same corny jokes over and over, and talks to our dog in a baby voice."
Here's another idea she could try -- talk to him about it. The first two might take some work, but trust me, most men, if called out for talking in a baby voice, will fix that, pronto.
Gene Weingarten: B-but he is the kind of a man who WOULD talk to a dog in a baby voice.
Seriously, I don't think they are doomed because they are incompatible. I think they might be doomed because she is asking the question.
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Indianapolis, IN: regarding the SNL VP debate, the crazy thing was how much more they had to exaggerate Biden to make him funny, compared to Tina's Palin. Though I did like Biden's lines about loving McCain (something like 'if I was stuck on a desert island with one other person, I'd want McCain - but seriously, that guy's a nutjob')
Gene Weingarten: The faux Biden's best moment was when he was talking about Scranton. "I'm the only thing that EVER came outta there."
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Truth can be stranger than fiction: Although this would have been hysterical if Mr. Fox had encountered a hound:
A man who decided to take home a fox he hit on the road wrecked his SUV after the animal he thought was dead revived.
Tommy Fox ran over the fox last Wednesday near Dover, Tenn., as he returned home from work, the Leaf Chronicle reports.
Thinking the animal was dead, he decided to take the animal home to cut off its tail as a souvenir, Dale Grandstaff of the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency told the paper.
"The tails are real bushy and pretty and thick this time of year," Grandstaff said.
Instead, the driver flipped his GMC Jimmy trying to keep the fox - that had awoken in the backseat - from biting him, Grandstaff told the paper.
Gene Weingarten: This story has everything! It even has Dale Grandstaff!
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Re: Reston: I was struck dumb by the poster who said he had not yet decided on who he is going to vote for.
For me, there is absolutely no question that only one candidate shares my vision of the future of this country, though we may not align on every single issue.
However, I don't know if I am annoyed by Reston or envious. Would it be nice to be so ambivalent or carefree or ignorant or uninformed to still not know who you prefer after a year and a half of campaigning?
Gene Weingarten: I am going to keep saying this, because it really honks some people off. I think it is true:
Once McCain chose Palin, and it became manifest just who she was, I contend the moral and loyal American no longer could vote for that ticket.
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Mini - Poll : How many guys in your audience generally sit when taking a leak? I'm male, late 50s, good health, and physically capable of standing long enough to drain the hose, but when I'm at home, and even at work where there are private one-holers (toilet only), I will take the occasion to drop my pants and set a spell. It's a nice break to the day, and it's like on Metro -- Why stand when a seat is available?
In a public place, I use the urinals if they're aren't otherwise occupied. They're quick and convenient, and honestly, I wouldn't mind getting a urinal installed at home. That would be useful.
In a public restroom, if only a toilet is available, I'll do a stand up there, especially in places with questionable sanitation. But I lift the seat (generally with my toe--and I have nothing but contempt for the lazy clods who leave the seat down) and direct the stream to the edge of the bowl to avoid the noise and splashing. Maybe some guys get a kick out of that sound and like to build up a nice head of bubbles in the bowl. I'm not one of them tho. And this doesn't even consider the whole question of back splatter.
And I always check the color. This might seem obsessive but I have a good reason. When I was ten years old one night, I looked down and the bowl looked like it was filled with Hawaiian punch. I was bleeding internally from a undetected congenital cyst. Within two weeks, I was in the hospital with one less kidney than I was born with. No problems since then, but I always check just to make sure.
If any or all of this makes me weird, big deal. Go tell somebody who gives a rat's tail.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you for sharing.
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Fairfax, Va.: Sarah Palin's appeal is that she tells people that even if you have no intelligence or aptitude or background or desire, you too can suddenly be plucked from obscurity to run for Vice President. She plays to the unwashed. She says "See? I'm a buffoon, and yet here I am running for Vice President for a man who is unlikely to make it to the end of one term! You can do it, too!"
Gene Weingarten: But really, what percent of the population is stupid enough to find that remotely reassuring?
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Hate speech?: Yelling that a presidential candidate should be killed sounds like a guaranteed quick trip to a federal pen. And aren't Secret Service people present, albeit to protect the other candidate?
Not a wise move. But that fits with your thesis about the Palinistas.
Gene Weingarten: As I read it, it was not clear exactly whose death the yeller was advocating.
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Pal-o-ween: So, I'm a small brunette person with "Tina Fey" glasses and sideswept bangs... clearly Palin is an awesome costume choice for me this year (also halloween is my birthday, so I always feel compelled to have awesome costumes). My question here is on accessories - what would be the most effective, a belt full of polar bear pelts? walk around all night saying, "you betcha,maverick!"? Suggestions from you would be like gold.
Gene Weingarten: You want to be dragging a moose carcass.
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Biden vs. Pal, IN:"how much more they had to exaggerate Biden to make him funny, compared to Tina's Palin"
I find it funny that Democrats think that their candidates are being exaggerated, while the people they don't like are being represented spot on.
Biased much?
Gene Weingarten: Well, you know: In this case, it is true. Objectively true. I mean, soe of Tina Fay's riffs have been direct, unadulterated quotes from what Palin actually said.
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Bethesda, Md.: I think they might be doomed because she is asking the question.
I think you're right. I can only speak from my own experience, but I had no doubts about marrying my husband. This cold feet/nerves thing -- I don't get it.
Gene Weingarten: I think cold feet is probably common; it's the going public with it that, to me, bodes poorly.
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Collateral Damage: The ugly tone of the McCain-Palin race just cost me a friendship. Here's the deal: Said former friend send me a link to a video that attempted to place all the blame for the economic meltdown on the Dems. I politely wrote back and said the video was disingenuous because there's plenty of blame to go around.
Well. That merely birthed a rash of e-mails from her, each more partisan and vitriolic than the last. Ultimately, I told her to stop writing to me. Now we're ex-friends, which is too bad, because we have friends in common I like very much.
In any case, I blame all this on the hysterical tone taken by the McCain-Palin campaign, and its Obama-is-the-Antichrist rhetoric. Jerks.
Gene Weingarten: There is some funny stuff on the Web in response to the charges about Obama and Bill Ayres, the former Weather Underground leader.
They "photos" of Obama, at age 8, conspiring with the then-criminal Ayres.
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Woodbridge, Va.: Gene: Once McCain chose Palin, and it became manifest just who she was, I contend the moral and loyal American no longer could vote for that ticket.
I have loyal and moral friends who are still voting for him for one reason -- taxes. They believe McCain won't raise them and Obama will. That's it. Taxes.
Gene Weingarten: That is not a moral or ethical stance, obviously.
If you do not think Sarah Palin can be a competent president, you cannot ethically vote for that ticket.
Okay, thank you all. I will be updating through the week.
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UPDATED 10.8.08
Iro, NY: Gene Weingarten: The three most brilliant will inevitably include the one that is most true, because brilliance relies on truth. That one would be democracy-innocence.
Fairfax, Va.: Sarah Palin's appeal is that she ... says "See? I'm a buffoon, and yet here I am running for Vice President for a man who is unlikely to make it to the end of one term! You can do it, too!" Gene Weingarten: But really, what percent of the population is stupid enough to find that remotely reassuring?
I think you answered your own question.
Seriously, I'm a big Obama guy, but I just don't understand the myopia of my liberal friends on Palin. In every election since 1980, the candidate who successfully created the image of himself as "just a regular guy, who understands you and your problems because he's like you" has won (I suspect this may have been true in 1976, too, but I'm too young to remember).
Clearly, that's the mantle McCain's going for. For him, it's hardly accurate, but been pretty successful for the nuclear physicists, movie stars, Rhodes scholars, Yale graduates, and so forth who have successfully claimed the title before, so why not? And he's done pretty well in creating that narrative for himself.
With Palin, it's even easier, because there's actually quite a bit of truth to it. The strong religious commitment, small town origin, blue collar husband, unwed pregnant teenage daughter, and checkered educational history that you decry are exactly the source of her appeal to the trailer trash in rural Ohio and Colorado who are going to decide this election.
Sure, those things make you, me, and most of the rest of the chatters hate her. But we were never going to vote for McCain, anyway. We wouldn't have voted for McCain/Ghandi. So, yeah, he choose a running mate who wouldn't appeal to people who weren't going to vote for him. You'll have to forgive me for failing to understand how that's a major blunder.
The real question is, does she appeal to the people the McCain campaign needs her to appeal to? Your acknowledgement of the brilliance of the Menkin quote (not to mention the last 30 years of electorical history) says she does.
Gene Weingarten: It's too bad you don't remember 1976, because that one is the one that may best parallel this year.
The country had just been through Watergate. The voters were sick to death of the Republicans. Gerald Ford was trying to distance himself from Nixon, but could not -- not just because of his ill-advised pardon, but because his party was inextricably linked to it all. People wanted something really different -- in fact, they wanted a smart guy to fix things.
Yeah, Jimmy Carter was a likeable peanut farmer, but he was also knowledgeable about nuclear physics, and was generally seen as the brains in that race. Gerald Ford was seen as the amiable dunce.
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Par, ODY: I submit the following Love/lust song parody for, well general amusement. NSFW!
Gene Weingarten: Thank you.
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Richmond, Va.: The boyfriend and I were having a meandering discussion about moral issues in relation to politics, such as gay marriage and abortion. I used to be conservative, but have been marching towards the left in recent years. He is a moderate and tends to be more interested in where candidates stand on the issues than with what party they are affiliated.
He mentioned hearing a discussion on talk radio about Sarah Palin's decision to have her baby with Down Syndrome and it was stated that most liberals support aborting fetuses that will have disabilities when they are born. I asked him what channel or show it was and he couldn't remember. I asked if maybe he was only half listening as he drove, noting that the only criticism I've heard recently about Palin and her baby was that people have been praising her for choosing to have this baby, considering that she is pro-life and would deny the right to choose for other women. He said he was pretty sure that wasn't what was being said.
So I went online and tried doing a search. I found one blog, something like America for Capitalism, where the person flat out said it was economically irresponsible to bring children like that in the world. I found other blogs with people furious over what the first blog said. I found a blog that quoted Phyllis Schlafly as saying that if Sarah Palin were a Democrat, she would have aborted the baby. I found another blog that said the Left hate children and listed the extreme views that would support that statement. Since I was wading into wackadoo land, I decided to stop there.
Not that I want you to make blanket statements about liberals and conservatives, but would you say this is a common belief?
Gene Weingarten: I assume it's a common belief, because I assume it is true.
Why wouldn't the part of the population that is supportive of a woman's right to choose abortion be more likely to also feel that aborting a mentally retarded fetus is jsutifiable? Surely a larger percentage of these people would believe it justifiable than would people who believe that abortion is tantamount to murder and should be a crime.
It's a leap to presume that the MAJORITY of people who are pro-choice would support aborting a fetus with Down syndrome, but it wouldn't surprise me. It seems to be among the least "frivolous" of reasons to choose abortion, and if your position (as mine is) is that abortion can be morally justified, wouldn't you sort of BEGIN there?
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B.D. Grins!: Hi Gene,
It's been over a week, but I'm still smiling about seeing B.D. smile in Doonesbury.
I loved Trudeau's whole sequence about Sam's Sarah Palin doll, but the most touching thing was seeing B.D. get so tickled as Boopsie tried to explain to Sam that Palin shouldn't be her hero (or her vice president). We've seen B.D. recover from his amputation and deal with his PTSD and even reach out to other characters -- but I'm pretty sure this is the first time he's smiled. It made me unreasonably happy.
And wide-eyed Boopsie has come a long way since B.D.'s injury, too. She's been a rock for B.D. And it's nice to see her get steamed about Palin.
I can't believe how emotionally invested I've become in these characters lately. Trudeau has always been brilliant, but this is ridiculous.
Gene Weingarten: Yeah, this was the best day of a good week.
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Old Dog Story: I won't go on too much about how cool my dog is (thats been covered in general?) but there is one story I always like telling. Growing up my mom always had these "super intelligent" (for dogs) Arabian hunting dogs. When I got my promised puppy I got a sled-dog mutt who, bless his heart, was as dumb as a door nail.
Now one of those kind of mean, but not really, things we'd do basically once with each dog at some point was the peanut-butter-on-the-nose-trick. We'd only do it once because while funny and harmless we felt a little bad proving we were smarter than the dogs. After watching them try and lick the stuff off the top of their nose for 30 seconds we'd clean their nose off, give them a treat, never do it again, and all was forgiven. Well when we got my dog (the stupid one) we tried this stunt. He licked at the air once, realized that wouldn't work, made straight for the nearest couch (it happened to be a nice one) wiped the peanut butter off on the furniture and proceeded to lick the furniture clean.
Yea, we stopped doing that one...
Gene Weingarten: This had me laughing aloud.
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Brainerd, Minn.: Funny clip of Sarah Palin being interviewed by Marge Gunderson.
I've lived in Northern Minnesota for a good part of my life -- Palin has a Northern Minnesota accent, youbetcha!
According to an article in Slate, a bunch o' Norskies from Minn-e-SO-ta were relocated to Palmer Alaska (near Wasilla) in the 1930's. This may explain the accent.
This somehow reminds me of my favorite Dilbert cartoon, which I can't find.
First frame: Pointy-haired boss tells Dilbert he's working with a new hire who graduated from Yale.
Second frame: Dilbert asks "Sven" (who's wearing an eye patch) about Yale.
Third frame: Sven says "I yust got out last week"
(Had to be there, I reckon!)
Gene Weingarten: I love that Gunderson interview, and the Dilbert.
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Next Week's Chat!!!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 8, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
October 7, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2883 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Michael D. Shear was online live Tuesday, Sept. 30 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Michael D. Shear: Hey everyone. I'm filling in for the great Mike Abramowitz, who is on the trail with Sen McCain today. I am heading to Nashville later today for the debate, which I assume you all want to talk about. So let's get started.
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La Vale, Md.: Good morning, and thanks for chatting. The McCain campaign has shifted its theme to "Obama is risky" or "who is this Obama and his associates"? (After trying "Obama is inexperienced" "Obama is a liberal" and "Obama will raise your taxes.") Isn't it a bit late to be trying a new theme, especially in the face of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression? Or does the McCain campaign think this is their only, slim chance to win at this point?
Michael D. Shear: It is late, and some Republicans I talk to worry about the very thing that you mention -- McCain's lack of consistency in his message. I would add that he also tried at times to focus on himself, rather than Obama. In the early days, the campaign talked all about McCain's biography. They don't do that so much anymore.
I do agree that the strategy they are now on carries risks, especially of a backlash from people who desperately want a discussion of how to improve their economic fortunes. But don't underestimate the importance of character in a presidential campaign. Unlike any other (senate, congress, legislator) a presidential campaign is about whether people like their candidate. If McCain can make Obama unlikeable to the swing voter, he could win.
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Washington: We're hosting some friends for the debate tonight. What kind of drinks should we have on hand?
Michael D. Shear: Hmmm. If you were at a college dorm, I could suggest some games that involve taking a drink every time you hear Obama say "change" or McCain say "reform."
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Northville, N.Y. : Please, please, please, can we permanently retire the phrase "presidential debate" until we start having real debates? These are joint press conferences, with only minor differences, and -- to the extent that there is any real debating -- debating skills are as irrelevant as they are in a beauty contest. It's more like a joint job interview, except that there is no requirement that the questions of the interviewer be answered. A whole generation of children is being mindlessly misinformed as to what a debate is.
Michael D. Shear: I largely agree. There's not much -- if any -- true debating going on at these things. Tonight may be a bit more interesting because of the town hall format, but in fact the candidates are barred from talking to each other. Hard to call that a debate.
On the other hand, who are we to fight against the momentum of semantics. I suspect they will be still called debates long after you and I are gone.
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Washington: Mr. Shear, can you please tell us a bit about the format of tonight's debate? How are the audience members (i.e., the questioners) selected? How can we at home know that the audience isn't secretly stacked with supporters of one or other candidate? Also, does anyone pre-screen the questions, or can a questioner ask any old thing he/she wants? Thank you.
Michael D. Shear: My understanding is that the questions from the audience are submitted in advance to Tom Brokaw, who selects the ones he wants asked. He then calls on the people in the audience, who are not allowed to switch questions.
The audience is made up of "uncommitted" voters and is gathered together by the Gallup polling organization in much the same way they put together focus groups -- to reflect the nation as much as possible.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Mr. Shear, is there any solid information available at this point on whether the increasingly negative tone of the campaigns (Dana Milbank's article in this morning's Post is a pointed example) has resonance with undecided and/or independent voters? Do these attacks serve to shore up the support and enthusiasm of the base, or can they also persuade voters? What has been your experience covering and studying other campaigns? Thanks.
Michael D. Shear: I have covered campaigns where negativity worked and ones where it didn't. Here's a couple of examples, though I caution that I'm not sure how it's playing out this time.
In 2005, I covered the governor's race in Virginia, where the Republican candidate ran ads accusing the Democratic candidate of not even being willing to support the death penalty for Adolph Hitler. It is widely believed that those ads backfired. After the Democrat (Tim Kaine) won, voter attitudes suggested that many felt the Republican (Jerry Kilgore) had been far more negative.
On the other hand, the Senate race between George Allen and Jim Webb was probably the nastiest, least issue-based I've ever covered. In that case, the negativity was mostly aimed at Allen, though not directly from Webb. Allen suffered from the constant negative stories, and ultimately lost.
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Sad Irony: Doesn't it seem ironic that prior to the Vice-Presidential debate Sen. Biden was cautioned not to bully Gov. Palin or address her too aggressively, and now we read (via Milbank) that she is at least overtly encouraging crowds to react in an ugly, even threatening manner, toward Barack Obama?
washingtonpost.com: Unleashed, Palin Makes a Pit Bull Look Tame (Post, Oct. 7)
Michael D. Shear: Gov. Palin has definitely taken on the traditional role of the pit-bull, attacking with relish. The caution for Biden before their debate had more to do with the concern that attacks on her could be perceived as sexist and arrogant and bullying. I think that would be less of a concern today, given her aggressive posture. But there's still a different dynamic for a male-female debate in this country.
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Washington: Good morning. I have read virtually nothing about the Georgia Senate race, and yet many of the polls I've seen have been razor-thin -- one out yesterday shows Sen. Chambliss (R) ahead by only one point. Is this race a serious pick-up possibility for Democrats, especially given Obama's registration efforts there and the likely increase in African American turnout that have just managed to fly under the radar? Or is it bad polling? Thanks!
Michael D. Shear: I'm anything but an expert on Senate races. But here's what my colleague Chris Cillizza, aka. the Fix, said about this in his blog the other day:
"If you extend the playing field slightly further (and some Democrats do) then you add Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts and Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe to that longshot yet possible list. (We're not there yet although the DSCC released a poll this week that showed Chambliss in a dog fight and state Sen. Andrew Rice in Oklahoma is running a credible race with some nice looking ads.)"
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Washington: I just heard about a new national poll that showed a majority of Americans favor the Democratic candidate to address concerns about the economny. Knowing the policy implications of having a Democrat in the White House (e.g. higher taxes, support for unions that put inflationary pressure on wages, increased government spending that could impact the federal budget deficit, etc.), I'm wondering why many concluded that a Democrat would be better for the economy. Did this recent poll, or another poll, delve into the reasons in more detail?
Michael D. Shear: This is a very interesting question. I just talked to our polling department. The polls suggest that Americans believe that Obama has more empathy for their financial situation tham McCain does. And by a large margin, voters blame President Bush and the Republicans in Congress for the current economic situation. And so it's not surprising that, given that, the edge on the economy would go to Obama.
Obviously, though, for people who are already predisposed to disagree with Obama on taxes, unions, spending, they would be less likely to be among the majorities who say they believe Obama would be better for the economy.
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Boulder, Colo.: Why does the media continue to give Sarah Palin an outlet for broadcasting her views when she refuses to engage with reporters? If she's not going to hold press conferences why not just ignore her?
Michael D. Shear: Are you a reporter in training, Boulder?
While I believe more access to Ms. Palin (and all of the candidates) would be a good thing for Democracy and our country, it is up to the campaigns to decide how much they want their candidates to submit to questions from myself and my colleagues.
Regardless, one can't ignore her. She's holding rallies with thousands of people. It's part of the campaign. All we can do is point out to people in our stories that what they are getting from Palin is the canned, pre-packaged speeches and not the more spontaneous answers that would come from a true question-and-answer session.
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Roseland, N.J.: Regardless of who wins the presidency, isn't this post-election transition going to be vastly different than any we've seen before?
Michael D. Shear: I don't think vastly different. It's a process that we've seen in Washington before.
It will, however, be a large-scale transformation of Washington either way. If Obama wins, there will be a massive shift of people as the Bush conservatives move out and a new kind of Democratic administration moves in.
If McCain wins, I would expect a similarly large change. Some of the broader Bush appointees would no doubt stay in a McCain administration, but he is clearly a different kind of Republican and so I would expect lots of people to go, and quickly.
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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Is Bob Dole doing any campaigning for his wife Liddy? Is the Senate race there going to run in tandem with the presidential race -- i.e., either Sen. Dole and Sen. McCain win North Carolina, or it's a Democratic sweep?
Michael D. Shear: From what I gather from my colleagues, Elizabeth Dole appears to have a tough slog ahead of her either way.
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Claverack, N.Y.: I understand, on its face, that the McCain camp feels they must go negative in tonight's town hall. But are they thinking this through? I mean, if they get really personal, they've already handed Obama the perfect retort: "Hard to believe that just a week ago, the senator thought we needed to do more town halls together because they would elevate the level of debate. I guess the format doesn't matter when you're so out of touch you can only win by throwing mud."
Michael D. Shear: That's true! One of the main things that Sen. McCain used to say about his proposal for 10 town halls was that it would have elevated the debate.
Thanks for reminding me. I'm gonna go dig up those quotes to be able to use them tonight.
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Rolla, Mo.: What exactly can Brokaw, the networks or the commission do to someone who switches questions on them? They're not signing a contract, are they? I guess they can cut off their mike, but boy, that wouldn't go over well.
Michael D. Shear: That's true. I'm not sure what they are going to do. I suppose they could tell someone that if they switch questions they will be asked to leave. But you're right, that wouldnt go over well either.
I'll endeavor to find out how they intend to enforce this.
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Austin, Texas: Does McCain have enough time left to define Obama? And is Obama enough of a blank slate at this point for him to do so? Seems to me that if McCain intended to go hard negative, he should have done so much earlier, just as people were starting to tune in -- say, around the convention.
Michael D. Shear: This is hard to know. If you go negative too early, when nobody is listening or watching, you are wasting your money. On the other hand, as you suggest, it takes some time for this stuff to sink in.
As an example, the original "Swift Boat" ads came out in August, giving the accusations in the ad time to seep into the public consciousness. Because John Kerry didn't react aggressively, they really took hold.
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Washington: I've been reading the Post's political coverage everyday -- thanks to everyone for interesting and good work. After the election and post-election coverage, will some reporters be reassigned to other areas? If so, are reporters looking forward to that?
Michael D. Shear:28 days, 9 hours, 19 minutes, 48 seconds left.
Not that I'm counting.
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Washington: Hey, Michael! Thanks for chatting today. The standard story on Palin is that she won't meet with the press, but how many times have any of the people on the tickets (McCain, Obama, Biden) had open question-and-answer sessions with the press? I can't remember the last time Obama met with reporters to answer questions. Am I off-base here, or is he about as accessible as the current president? Thanks!
Michael D. Shear: If I recall correctly, Sen. Obama did answer questions a week or so ago, during the financial crisis. He held a press conference to announce his "principles" and then took questions. He has not been overly accessible, but has done similar press conferences about once a week or more. He also has done interviews with national TV anchors.
McCain, of course, used to be the most accessible candidate, holding hours and hours of question-and-answer sessions on the back of his bus. That's how he got the "straight talk express" label. But that is all over. No national reporters traveling with him have had an oppotunity to ask him questions on the road in months.
McCain has given select interviews to national network anchors. And he regularly submits to interviews with local television personalities.
Biden, I believe, has done dozens of interviews. I'm not sure how many press conferences he's had.
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Washington: The democrats are going to remain in control of Congress. Do you have any sense of whether the McCain camp has a strategy in place to deal with Congress if they happen to win with a barage of negative ads? How could he possibly govern in that kind of atmosphere?
Michael D. Shear: I haven't talked to them about this. Most campaign people don't like to talk much about what happens after they win, figuring that's bad luck.
But I would guess that the relations between the parties are going to be tense no matter what happpened. If McCain wins, the Democrats are going to be seething and it won't matter how he wins, nasty or not.
If that happens, Americans will truly have chosen divided government.
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Washington: Michael, I feel like you kind of gave the submitter from Washington asking about Obama's support and the economy a free pass. The person was making assumptions that don't really fly with this election -- especially given that under Bush, the federal government's role has expanded to a huge degree. Our federal deficit is at its highest point in years. Just because a president is a Republican doesn't mean that he or she won't increase the deficit.
Michael D. Shear: That's certainly true, Washington. President Bush has certainly presided over one of the largest -- if not the largest -- increase in the federal deficit in history. That was probably true even before the bailout.
I was not intending to give anyone a pass.
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Springfield. Va/: How come there's no picture of you with this discussion? Rumor has it you look like that PC guy in the Mac commercials.
Michael D. Shear: This is cruel.
This person clearly knows that I am a Mac person, whose commitment to reporting the news using Apple products is unquestioned.
To accuse me of looking like the PC guys is an affront on so many levels.
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Fairfax, Va.: Word has it that you're the No. 1 gadget guy on the campaign trail. How has that affected your reporting this year?
Michael D. Shear: The following is sent from my iPhone:
This seems like a good place to stop. I've enjoyed chatting. Everyone tune in for the debate tonight, and then head over to our website, where I will be helping with the Instant Fact Checking throughout the evening.
Tomorrow, I'll head out with McCain to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Talk to you from the road (with all my gadgets!)
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washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Election Law (and How to Break It) (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
October 6, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Seeking to Shift Attention to Judicial Nominees
BYLINE: By PATRICK HEALY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 1122 words
There is no way, of course, that Senator Barack Obama would ever nominate three controversial figures from his past to serve on the United States Supreme Court: the convicted felon Antoin Rezko; the former Weather Underground radical Bill Ayers; or Mr. Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.
Yet the names and faces of the three men appear in a new television advertisement -- running in Michigan and Ohio this week and nationally on Fox News on Monday, at a total cost of $500,000 -- arguing that Mr. Obama's judgment about his associates shows that he cannot be trusted to pick justices for the Supreme Court.
At a time when job losses, home foreclosures and the war in Iraq are paramount in voters' minds, the politics of the Supreme Court seem, at first blush, abstract and unlikely to emerge as a concern before the election. Yet both presidential campaigns are gearing up for the possibility that court-related issues will become an X factor in some swing states, in what political analysts see as intensifying unpredictability.
''Judges are what you refer to as a 'last 30 days' issue, and it's hard to know how it might play,'' said Evan Tracey, the head of CMAG, a company that monitors political advertising. ''Now is the time when you start hearing messages that connect with the single-issue core voters -- guns, abortion, civil rights. And it's all about judges.''
President Bush is delivering a speech on Monday in Cincinnati about his judicial philosophy and his court nominations, remarks likely to draw at least an implicit contrast between Mr. Obama and the Republican candidate, Senator John McCain.
Obama advisers say they plan to push back forcefully and warn that Mr. McCain, who has praised Mr. Bush's picks for the court, would continue selecting conservative judges.
Both campaigns are also watching to see if the future of the Roe v. Wade decision, as well as issues like gay marriage and school prayer, become galvanizing forces for swing voters in battlegrounds like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Advisers on both sides say they doubt social issues will match the economy's problems in this election, and Obama advisers say they are being especially vigilant about not allowing anything to overshadow that issue.
Indeed, Mr. Obama already has some experience with blowback from the right and the left over Supreme Court issues. Critics accused him of slipperiness in June for praising the court's decision in a Second Amendment case overturning the District of Columbia's ban on personal gun ownership, and for his attack on another ruling that outlawed the death penalty for people convicted of child rape.
For Mr. McCain's part, conservatives remember with antipathy that he was part of the so-called Gang of 14, Republican and Democratic senators who forged a compromise that allowed for confirmation votes on some of Mr. Bush's judicial appointments.
Still, many conservatives are confident that Mr. McCain would appoint people who, as he has pledged, fit the mold of the two most recent additions to the court, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. (Mr. Obama voted against both men; he has praised Justices Stephen G. Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and David H. Souter as ''sensible.'') The next president is expected to have at least one nomination for the Supreme Court and as many as three in his four-year term.
''McCain is a social conservative, and he's given every indication that his appointees would be conservative, especially since that's the traditional way to repay the Republican base for helping elect you,'' said Michael Dorf, a professor at Cornell Law School and a former clerk for Justice Anthony M. Kennedy. ''Obama's whole message, meanwhile, is about uniting people and listening to the other side. And he is close to a number of core centrist Democratic thinkers about the court, so it's likely that he would pick people who are fairly centrist.''
Many conservatives disagree. They point to remarks that Mr. Obama made on CNN where, after saying he did not believe ''in a bunch of judicial law-making,'' he went on to describe in relatively explicit terms for a presidential candidate what sort of perspective he would want his nominees to have.
''What I do want is a judge who is sympathetic enough to those who are on the outside, those who are vulnerable, those who are powerless, those who can't have access to political power and as a consequence can't protect themselves from being -- from being dealt with sometimes unfairly, that the courts become a refuge for justice,'' said Mr. Obama, who taught constitutional law for years at the University of Chicago.
Several conservative observers of the court said they interpreted those remarks as code for Mr. Obama's intention to select ''liberal activist judges.''
''That comment was pretty remarkable to a lot of us,'' said Neomi Rao, a teacher at George Mason University Law School who is a former associate counsel in the Bush White House and a former clerk for Justice Clarence Thomas. ''When I hear about a judge who rules on the basis of empathy, I think of an activist judge.''
Obama advisers say that he believes most cases are decided based on precedents but that a handful of decisions can reflect judges' own life experiences, like a recent equal-pay case where a conservative bloc of justices ruled against a female factory supervisor saying she should have filed her suit years earlier.
Some campaign analysts point out that presidential candidates have long struggled to make an issue out of their opponent's record on judicial appointments. Senator John Kerry, for instance, often said in 2004 that if voters needed a reason to oppose Mr. Bush, ''I have three words for you: the Supreme Court.'' Few analysts say it made much difference in the outcome of the election, and Mr. Roberts and Mr. Alito have joined the court since.
Still, now is the moment in a presidential race when court issues can come to the fore. The new advertisement focusing on Mr. Obama's ties to Mr. Wright and others comes as Mr. Obama is struggling to win over white working-class voters in parts of Michigan, Ohio and western Pennsylvania (where the advertisement will also be seen) who voted for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
''It's important to point out that voters don't get to pick justices; we pick a president who hopefully has the right discernment of character to evaluate people for life tenure on the court,'' said Wendy Long, chief counsel for the Judicial Confirmation Network, a conservative-leaning group that is running the new commercial. ''Based on the evidence of people like Reverend Wright, Obama has deficiency in that area.''
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USA TODAY
October 6, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Obama's tie to '60s radical fuels attacks;
Palin remarks revive controversy as polls show gains for Dem
BYLINE: Jill Lawrence
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 2A
LENGTH: 569 words
WASHINGTON -- Republican John McCain's campaign spent the weekend trying to tie the Democratic nominee to a 1960s radical. "It's really important for Americans to start knowing who the real Barack Obama is," vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin said Sunday in Long Beach.
Palin led the attacks that Republicans took up across the television dial. The focus was on Bill Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground who lives near Obama in Chicago, served with him on two charity boards and held a reception for him in 1995.
"It goes to the issue of judgment," Minnesota's Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty said on ABC's This Week. "What kind of judgment would allow an unrepentant domestic terrorist to host a political event for you in his home?"
Pennsylvania's Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell shot back: "They're starting to do the politics of personal destruction. The American people and here in Pennsylvania, we're not going to buy that."
On Saturday in Carson, Calif., Palin accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists who would target their own country" and added, "This is not a man who sees America as you see America and as I see America."
She said she based her remarks on a New York Times article that appeared Saturday. That article and others describe the relationship between Obama and Ayers as not close.
The new GOP tack comes as the economic crisis increasingly dominates the campaign and new polls show Obama growing stronger in key battleground states. A Columbus Dispatch poll put the race at Obama 49%, McCain 42% in Ohio, while a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll gave Obama an 18-point lead in Minnesota. A Denver Post poll of Colorado showed the race deadlocked 44%-44%.
Two of the biggest opportunities left to shake things up are the debates Tuesday and Oct. 15. "The best chance the McCain campaign has right now is to turn the campaign back into a referendum on Obama. They're going to throw everything they possibly can at him," GOP strategist Todd Harris said.
Obama denounced the tactic Sunday in Asheville, N.C. "Sen. McCain has announced that they plan to turn the page on the ... economy and spend the final weeks of this campaign launching Swift Boat-style attacks on me," he said, referring to attacks on 2004 nominee John Kerry's military record. "The policies he's supported these past eight years and the policies he wants to continue are pretty hard to defend. I can understand why Sen. McCain would want to 'turn the page.'"
Obama has said Ayers, now an education professor, committed "detestable" acts of violence. Democrats warned Sunday on TV that the attacks on Obama may backfire. "This guilt-by-association path is going to be trouble ultimately for the McCain campaign," Paul Begala said on NBC's Meet the Press.
Over on CNN's Late Edition, Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., raised the Keating Five scandal. Charles Keating, a McCain friend and constituent, was chairman of Lincoln Savings & Loan, which failed and cost 21,000 investors their savings. The Senate Ethics Committee cleared McCain of improperly helping Keating avoid regulators but said he used poor judgment in his dealings with him.
Obama launched a pre-emptive TV ad Sunday that calls McCain "erratic in a crisis" and "out of touch." It goes on, "No wonder his campaign wants to ... turn the page on the financial crisis, by launching dishonest, dishonorable assaults against Barack Obama."
Contributing: David Jackson
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The Washington Post
October 6, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
Candidates Prepare for Tuesday's Town Hall Debate;
Format Is Seen As McCain Forte
BYLINE: Michael Abramowitz and Perry Bacon Jr.; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A06
LENGTH: 768 words
DATELINE: SEDONA, Ariz., Oct. 5
In one of the most beautiful spots on the globe, Sen. John McCain spent much of Saturday holed up in a dark hotel conference room, engaged in intense debate preparation. At the end of it, the GOP nominee told his aides that was crazy, and so Sunday's first round of debate prep was held outside, near the creek by his house in the scenic Arizona desert.
Other than that last-minute audible, McCain appears to be engaged in especially serious preparations for Tuesday's debate, one of his last opportunities to change the trajectory of a race that may be slipping out of his control. He is certainly doing more formal preparation than he did before last month's debate in Mississippi.
Since leaving Washington on Thursday, McCain has kept a light schedule, his only public appearances being two town-hall-style events in Colorado -- that will be the format of Tuesday's debate in Nashville. On Saturday and Sunday, he held three formal practice sessions, with former Ohio congressman Rob Portman standing in for Obama.
"McCain has done so many of these over the years that it's probably going to be the best kind of forum he is going to be in," said his former campaign manager Terry Nelson. "It's a great opportunity for him and the campaign."
Obama aides were trying to raise expectations for McCain even higher.
"We are expecting to see John McCain at the top of his game," said Jen Psaki, a campaign spokeswoman. "Town halls have been the signature event of both of his presidential campaigns -- he likes them, feels he does well at them and credits them for his political comeback in the summer of 2007."
Obama is preparing in Asheville, N.C., in a state where he is hoping to sway voters who typically vote Republican in presidential elections. He was joined at a resort hotel by several top aides, including strategists David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs, campaign manager David Plouffe, and Greg Craig, the Washington lawyer and Clinton administration official who has portrayed McCain in practice debates.
In the words of one campaign aide, Obama will seek Tuesday to continue his efforts to present himself as a "very pragmatic, non-ideological and very even-keeled" politician, one who can be trusted to take over the country at a time of uncertainty abroad and at home.
At the same time, the Obama campaign is trying to raise questions about McCain's temperament, launching a television ad today that labels the Arizona senator as "erratic in a crisis." [Ad Watch, A5.]
Speaking Sunday to thousands gathered on the football field of Asheville High School, Obama predicted that McCain would seek to "distract you with smears" in the final month of the campaign.
"Senator McCain's campaign has announced that they plan to 'turn the page' on the discussion about our economy and spend the final weeks of this campaign launching Swift-boat-style attacks on me," Obama said. "Senator McCain and his operatives are gambling that he can distract you. . . . I want you to know that I'm going to keep on talking about issues that matter."
He was alluding to the suggestion by McCain aides that they intend to ratchet up attacks on Obama to try to halt his recent momentum, especially questioning his judgment for his associations with 1960s radical William Ayers and convicted Chicago developer Antoin "Tony" Rezko.
An open question is how aggressively McCain will take the fight to Obama on Tuesday night. One senior McCain adviser said Sunday that he expects both candidates to draw contrasts with each other on the economy, but he seemed to suggest McCain would stay away from personal attacks.
This official said McCain is looking forward to the debate because he likes the freewheeling town hall format, and he expects it to focus on the candidates' economic plans.
"The key for McCain, if he is to close the race, is to argue that the change Obama wants is change Americans don't want," said Sara M. Taylor, former White House political director for President Bush. "Whether it's higher taxes or increased government involvement in health care, Senators McCain and Obama couldn't be more different."
Gibbs, the Obama strategist, said that any personal or character-based attacks from McCain would be complicated by the style of the debate, in which the candidates will take questions posed by audience members and, through moderator Tom Brokaw of NBC, from people online.
"I think they've announced they want people to forget about the economy and talk about Barack Obama," Gibbs said. "I think that's very dangerous and very hard in a debate where you are taking questions from real people."
Bacon reported from Asheville.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Scott Halleran -- Getty Images; Sen. Barack Obama campaigns at Asheville High School in Asheville, N.C. He told supporters that as the election nears, "Senator McCain and his operatives are gambling that he can distract you."
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The Washington Post
October 6, 2008 Monday
Regional Edition
Blaming Deregulation;
__
BYLINE: Sebastian Mallaby
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A15
LENGTH: 851 words
The financial turmoil has pushed the Obama campaign into the lead, and this is mostly justified. Barack Obama is more thoughtful on the economy than his opponent, and his bench of advisers is superior. But there's a troubling side to the Democratic advance. The claim that the financial crisis reflects Bush-McCain deregulation is not only nonsense. It is the sort of nonsense that could matter.
The real roots of the crisis lie in a flawed response to China. Starting in the 1990s, the flood of cheap products from China kept global inflation low, allowing central banks to operate relatively loose monetary policies. But the flip side of China's export surplus was that China had a capital surplus, too. Chinese savings sloshed into asset markets 'round the world, driving up the price of everything from Florida condos to Latin American stocks.
That gave central bankers a choice: Should they carry on targeting regular consumer inflation, which Chinese exports had pushed down, or should they restrain asset inflation, which Chinese savings had pushed upward? Alan Greenspan's Fed chose to stand aside as asset prices rose; it preferred to deal with bubbles after they popped by cutting interest rates rather than by preventing those bubbles from inflating. After the dot-com bubble, this clean-up-later policy worked fine. With the real estate bubble, it has proved disastrous.
So the first cause of the crisis lies with the Fed, not with deregulation. If too much money was lent and borrowed, it was because Chinese savings made capital cheap and the Fed was not aggressive enough in hiking interest rates to counteract that. Moreover, the Fed's track record of cutting interest rates to clear up previous bubbles had created a seductive one-way bet. Financial engineers built huge mountains of debt partly because they expected to profit in good times -- and then be rescued by the Fed when they got into trouble.
Of course, the financiers did create those piles of debt, and they certainly deserve some blame for today's crisis. But was the financiers' miscalculation caused by deregulation? Not really.
The key financiers in this game were not the mortgage lenders, the ratings agencies or the investment banks that created those now infamous mortgage securities. In different ways, these players were all peddling financial snake oil, but as Columbia University's Charles Calomiris observes, there will always be snake-oil salesmen. Rather, the key financiers were the ones who bought the toxic mortgage products. If they hadn't been willing to buy snake oil, nobody would have been peddling it.
Who were the purchasers? They were by no means unregulated. U.S. investment banks, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, bought piles of toxic waste. U.S. commercial banks, regulated by several agencies, including the Fed, also devoured large quantities. European banks, which faced a different and supposedly more up-to-date supervisory scheme, turn out to have been just as rash. By contrast, lightly regulated hedge funds resisted buying toxic waste for the most part -- though they are now vulnerable to the broader credit crunch because they operate with borrowed money.
If that doesn't convince you that deregulation is the wrong scapegoat, consider this: The appetite for toxic mortgages was fueled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the super-regulated housing finance companies. Calomiris calculates that Fannie and Freddie bought more than a third of the $3 trillion in junk mortgages created during the bubble and that they did so because heavy government oversight obliged them to push money toward marginal home purchasers. There's a vigorous argument about whether Calomiris's number is too high. But everyone concedes that Fannie and Freddie poured fuel on the fire to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
So blaming deregulation for the financial mess is misguided. But it is dangerous, too, because one of the big challenges for the next president will be to defend markets against the inevitable backlash that follows this crisis. Even before finance went haywire, the Doha trade negotiations had collapsed; wage stagnation for middle-class Americans had raised legitimate questions about whom the market system served; and the food-price spike had driven many emerging economies to give up on global agricultural markets as a source of food security. Coming on top of all these challenges, the financial turmoil is bound to intensify skepticism about markets. Framing the mess as the product of deregulation will make the backlash nastier.
The next president will have to make some subtle choices. In certain areas, markets need to be reformed -- by pushing murky "over-the-counter" trades between banks onto transparent exchanges, for example. In other areas, government needs to fix itself -- by not subsidizing reckless mortgage lending. But a president who has a mandate only to reregulate will be a boxer with a missing glove. By going along with the market skepticism of his party, Obama may end up winning an election while compromising his presidency.
smallaby@cfr.org
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The Washington Post
October 6, 2008 Monday
Regional Edition
Obama Attack Gets Asterisk on Accuracy
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A05
LENGTH: 383 words
THE AD
Three-quarters of a million jobs lost this year. Our financial system in turmoil. And John McCain? Erratic in a crisis. Out of touch on the economy. No wonder his campaign's announced a plan to "turn a page on the financial crisis" by launching dishonest, dishonorable "assaults" against Barack Obama. Struggling families can't turn the page on this economy. And we can't afford another president who's this out of touch.
ANALYSIS
This Barack Obama ad uses some disingenuous sleight of hand to convey the impression that The Washington Post is calling John McCain's campaign untruthful.
The commercial is largely accurate, using newspaper excerpts to buttress the impression that the senator from Arizona was less than steady in responding to the Wall Street crisis (while showing McCain in a golf cart). As McCain first said the economy's fundamentals were sound, then ratcheted up his rhetoric and plunged into congressional bailout talks, a USA Today editorial called his conduct "erratic" and "out of touch."
The ad doesn't mention that the same editorial said, "Granted, Democrat Barack Obama also has scant experience dealing with financial crises."
A Post news article Saturday -- a facsimile of which is pictured in the ad -- did say that McCain and his GOP allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Obama's judgment, honesty and personal associations, and it quoted a McCain aide talking about turning a page on the financial crisis. But when the narrator talks about "dishonest, dishonorable assaults" against the senator from Illinois, the first two words are the Obama campaign's, not The Post's. While the on-screen graphic says " 'assault' on Obama," the narrator's words run together in a way that could easily mislead the casual viewer.
With its images of a Wall Street trading floor and an "average" family, the spot attempts to play on economic anxieties, a strong issue for Obama, and depict McCain (who, as usual, is pictured with President Bush) as disconnected from those problems. At the same time, the ad, which was leaked yesterday, tries to inoculate Obama against future McCain commercials that may play up his links to convicted businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko and onetime terrorist William Ayers.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 6, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Critiquing the Press
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4182 words
HIGHLIGHT: Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
He was online Monday, Oct. 6 at noon ET to take your questions and comments.
The transcript follows.
Media Backtalk transcripts archive
____________________
Tempe, Ariz.: Howard, after making a big stink how much more coverage Obama has received in The Post as compared to McCain, have we done the same thing with the vice presidential candidates? Seems like Palin has dominated so much, yet because she's a Republican, it's a nonissue. Thanks,
Howard Kurtz: No question, Palin has received far more coverage -- not just in The Post but throughout media land. She's back on the cover of Newsweek today. The explanations are similar to what we heard about Obama during the primaries -- she's a fresh face, we know less about her, she's a trailblazer (on gender, not racial grounds), she's a better story. But unlike in the early months of Obama's candidacy, a good bit of the Palin coverage has been skeptical to negative. Case in point, Newsweek's subheadline accusing her of "mindless populism."
_______________________
Germantown, Md.: Hi Howie. During the vice presidential debate, CNN divided their "insta-feedback" tracking lines into "men" and "women," as opposed to the division for the presidential debate -- Republicans, Democrats and independents. I was shocked at this -- was this to imply that women and men respond differently just because one person on the stage is a woman? Am I overreacting, or was this a poor choice on CNN's part? Maybe if they had done it for one of the three presidential debates, it would have been different, but to use it for the one debate with a female? I watch CNN 24-7, but was so offended I changed the channel.
Howard Kurtz: I thought CNN had done it for the first presidential debate (I was in the hall so couldn't watch). Don't know if the reactions were split along gender lines. I'm not a huge fan of the whole genre -- how much does it really tell us what a bunch of wired people in a focus group say?
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New York: Do you ever see a time when the partisan cable gabfest screaming-contest show dies out? Don't all types of shows fall in and out of fashion, like reality shows and variety shows and sitcoms and what have you? Everything has its day, and then it's replaced by something new, or something recycled. Are people starting to tire of these types of shows, which add nothing to the public discourse and in fact subtract from it, or do the ratings indicate that they will continue to plague us for some time to come?
Howard Kurtz: I personally know a lot of people who are tired of talking points and shouting matches, but the ratings say otherwise. The most opinionated prime-time shows on Fox and MSNBC are also those with the strongest ratings. They tend to attract (though not exclusively) partisan viewers who already agree with the host.
_______________________
Bethesda, Md.: Hi Howard. So, are the three networks going to play all the negative campaign ads tonight? I never will understand why nightly news does not simply mention the fact that negative ads have been released (a legit news item) instead of actually playing the ad(s) -- providing a free service to the campaign!
Howard Kurtz: I have no problem with television playing the ads in a box IF the correspondents subject the charges to some kind of critical analysis, as opposed to acting like a mindless conduit for propaganda. We've also been used repeatedly, by both sides, in giving attention to ads that air 3 or 4 times and are nothing more than video press releases. But it's hard to know in advance which ones have "real" buys.
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Rolla, Mo.: After last week's dramatic build up, it seems that we have had no one willing to play the "expectations game" for tomorrow night's debate. Is it just the sign of the immediate times (financial crisis dominating everything right now)?
Howard Kurtz: What's that? The market is down another 500, so I wasn't paying attention.
_______________________
Tampa, Fla.: Hi Howard. I was reading the Post Magazine article about how Barack and Michelle met and romanced; although it was a fair piece, I was reminded about the recent Rasmussen survey that found half of Americans believe that the media is basically in the tank for Obama. Have you talked to your colleagues about how so many believe that the media is not credible? If so, does anyone care?
washingtonpost.com: When Michelle Met Barack (Post, Oct. 5)
Howard Kurtz: Whether the media are collectively in the tank or not, I don't think this article is an example of that. It's an excerpt from a forthcoming book about Michelle Obama.
_______________________
Bluffton, S.C.: Re: Today's Media Notes, I subscribe to Newsweek (don't ask me why) but the copy doesn't arrive until tomorrow. Because I was curious as to who wrote the Sarah Palin article, I visited their Web site. Had pretty much figured out it was either Evan Thomas or Jon Meacham. Sure enough it was the latter. I feel it's very important to read the byline in magazine and newspaper articles to see where the writer is coming from. Mr. Meacham touts his Tennessee connections when he appears on MSNBC, but he is more of the Brahmin, the patrician, the Washington establishment, the St. Alban's elite.
Howard Kurtz: I have great respect for Jon Meacham as a journalist and author, and his piece is, as you would expect, an intelligent examination of Sarah Palin's political persona. Indeed, the question of whether an average Joe Sixpack type is what we want in a vice president or president is a fascinating topic. But I would never have allowed "mindless populism" in the headline (the phrase is drawn from the piece). That's practically an announcement that you disapprove of the governor and her approach to politics.
_______________________
Kudos for Anne Hull: Howard, those of us who write in to this chat usually spend all of our time criticizing you media types (and you usually deserve it, don't you?). But I wanted to praise Anne Hull's story on the impact the economy is having on voters in Michigan, in Sunday's paper. She did a brilliant job of telling an individual's story without making anyone into a caricature or laying on too much symbolism. Really well done.
washingtonpost.com: Politics at the Five-and-Dime (Post, Oct. 5)
Howard Kurtz: We only deserve it sometimes!
That was an excellent piece. Political reporters would be well served to spend more time talking to voters and less to strategists, spinners and assorted insiders.
_______________________
Seattle: I loved Gwen Ifill and her PBS show for many years and I hope her ankle gets better, but I think she lost control of the vice presidential debate on Thursday, allowing for nonanswers and going off the question. Do you think it was more because of the format, or that she needed to stop them when they were straying?
Howard Kurtz: I thought Ifill's questions were too generally worded, giving the candidates a license to roam, and that she rarely tried to pin them down with followup questions. The format was constricting, but I don't see why she couldn't have framed her questions more around each candidate's record as opposed to just asking what they think about climate change, for instance.
_______________________
When Michelle Met Barack: Byron York over at the Corner is already whining that the article shows Michelle Obama is full of grievances, because she wanted her first law firm to give her only interesting and exciting work as a second-year associate.
Howard Kurtz: People are entitled to read into it whatever they want. That's how it works - we report things, and columnists and bloggers get to weigh in as they see fit.
_______________________
Trying to make a virtue out of a deficiency?: Do you think the sort of people who watch candidate debates will be favorably impressed with Sarah Palin's defiant attitude toward moderator Gwen Ifill -- namely Palin's refusing to answer questions put to the candidates in favor of speaking "directly" to the people? Or do you think this will have the unintended (by the McCain-Palin campaign) effect of turning toward the Obama-Biden ticket those viewers who might perceive this as a Palin ploy not to reply to questions she doesn't want (or is unable) to answer?
Howard Kurtz: I don't think most viewers care if a candidate is defying a moderator or not. I do think some might care if the candidate repeatedly seems unable to answer the questions. All candidates, to varying degrees, pivot off questions they don't want to answer (this is true in interviews and press conferences as well as debates) to subjects they do want to talk about. Palin was just more blatant about it. I was more surprised that she didn't respond to most of Biden's criticisms, instead trying to blow them off with a there-you-go-again approach.
_______________________
Glenside, Pa.: What does it say about expectations when both viewers and media "flock" to watch another predictable Tina Fey impression on "Saturday Night Live"? Not much ... they seem more interested in this three-minute bite than reality.
Howard Kurtz: Satire is as old as politics. And SNL has had an impact on campaigns before, most notably with Darrell Hammond's devastating impression of Al Gore, which Gore's aides made him watch so he would ease up on the sighing and eye-rolling in the second and third debates in 2000.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.: Howard, you objected this morning to Newsweek calling Palin's rhetoric "mindless," calling it "biased." You quote Newsweek: "Yes, she won the debate by not imploding. But governing requires knowledge, and mindless populism is just that -- mindless." And then you comment: "Doggone it, maybe her rhetoric is simplistic, misleading or irrelevant. But mindless?" Actually, simplistic, misleading and irrelevant all sound pretty mindless to me. I'm not making a rhetorical point here, I'm really asking: What makes the words "simplistic, misleading, irrelevant" unbiased, but "mindless" biased? How do you decide what constitutes an objective as opposed to a subjective term, especially when doing something like analyzing the truth and intelligence of someone's language?
Howard Kurtz: I just think those other words are less loaded. Mindless strongly suggests that the person is an idiot, or acting idiotic.
_______________________
Chicago: I thought the problem with Gwen Ifill's moderating was that her questions tended to be multiple choice, rather than essay questions -- e.g., something like "who is responsible for the financial meltdown: subprime borrowers, lenders, Wall Street CEOs?" That type of phrasing benefits someone who doesn't know much and is inclined to wing their way through an answer (not mentioning any names, of course). I cringed when she asked that question.
Howard Kurtz: Again, a question about Palin's and Biden's past statements or actions related to the financial meltdown (or McCain's and Obama's) would have been harder to duck with vague rhetoric.
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Re: Newsweek article: I've read that in newspapers, the writer does not always have control of the headline. Is that true in magazines as well?
Howard Kurtz: Yes. But Jon Meacham IS the editor, so he'd have more control than the average hack.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Howard, if the media devotes space to reporting the negative, partisan attacks launched by candidates against one another (for instance, the now-discredited story about Obama being a "pal" of Ayers; the link between McCain and Keating, which is pretty old history), is the media complicit in transforming the political arena from a site for discussion of substance to a mud-throwing contest? How much attention should the media pay to this back-and-forth, and how much can/should repeated (often unsubstantiated) attacks simply be ignored? Thanks.
Howard Kurtz: Part of our job is to report what the candidates and their campaigns do and say every day. We should analyze and fact-check what they say and do, but we can't simply ignore it.
In the case of William Ayers, it was the New York Times that revived the controversy in a front-page story Saturday. The story accurately described the slight acquaintanceship between Obama and this former terrorist and concluded they had never been close. There's nothing illegitimate about that, but I found it puzzling because the story was widely reported earlier this year and the Times account didn't seem to add much. Sarah Palin then seized on the piece (suddenly the McCain camp LIKES the NYT!) to charge that Obama is "palling around" with Ayers. That is false--there has been no recent contact--but then, campaigns are not always big on nuance when they go negative.
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Washington: Thanks for your column today on how the business press failed to cover the current financial crisis. Probably more than one poster will note that -- as was the case with the run-up to the Iraq war -- the press again failed in its responsibility to report objectively and not simply accept what it was fed ... let alone be curious about the supposed truth involved. Similar also are the apologies in hindsight. Is it any wonder people turn to bloggers when the press has so ill-served the public understanding of important events? How does the mainstream press regain its stature?
washingtonpost.com: The Press, a Few Dollars Short (Post, Oct. 4)
Howard Kurtz: It was a complicated, difficult story to nail, but a failure nonetheless. It's not as though business journalists were unaware of the risks at Fannie and Freddie, or the explosive growth of subprime loans and other details of the increasingly shaky financial system. But with a few exceptions - remember Jim Cramer shouting how the Fed didn't get how bad things were - these warning signs were ghettoized on the business pages and not pulled together and reported with any sense of alarm. I think the failure to report on how federal regulatory agencies were negligent in reining in this risky behavior -- which everyone is now doing in retrospect -- was particularly egregious.
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"Saturday Night Live" moment: Mr. Kurtz, you have used the Hammond-Gore comparison a few times now and I think you are doing it to imply that "Saturday Night Live" does not favor one ideology. However, "SNL" has been much, much more critical and "sharp" with Republicans in the last 15 years, so I think it's important to know why the media -- e.g. the Tribune, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, etc. -- continue to trumpet the caricaturing of politicians by a comedy show as if this was major news. You seem to be ducking the issue much in the same way "SNL," for the most part correctly, portrayed Gov. Palin ducking questions.
Howard Kurtz: I'm just citing it because it's prominent example. Hammond used to skewer Bill Clinton, but didn't Dana Carvey effectively mock Bush ("wouldn't be prudent") Sr. and Will Ferrell portray Bush 43 as rather clueless? In any case, it doesn't matter whether we report on it or not. Saturday Night Live has a big audience, and these days people can watch the clips endlessly online.
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Rachel Maddow: I tuned into her new show after reading your article about Ms. Maddow. I do not typically watch news shows on TV -- I am more of a reader of new. There were, as predicted, liberal guests. However, a scroll ran on the screen at one point listing all the Republican representatives who were asked to be on the show. The next night there was a Republican Congressmen, and I have read -- though did not see -- that a McCain representative was on the show on Friday. I found this to be interesting. Did Ms. Maddow force the conservatives' hand by calling them out for not being on her show? Not being a purveyor of these shows, I am not sure if this is typical or not.
Howard Kurtz: She did have on a McCain campaign spokeswoman and they went at it. I think the more Maddow does of that, the better. Countdown is largely limited to guests of the liberal persuasion as well as reporters. It's just more interesting to watch someone as smart as Rachel Maddow fence with someone (beyond Pat Buchanan) who disagrees with her.
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Boulder, Colo.: Good column this morning on the "financial mess." I was surprised on the Sunday shows that the financial Armageddon story took a back-seat to Sarah Palin/Tina Fey and the regular who's up/who's down. It strikes me that if the financial crisis was as dire as portrayed, it should be front-and-center. Thoughts?
Howard Kurtz: Covering the financial crisis is complicated and not as sexy as the final weeks of a hard-fought presidential campaign. Even the prospect of O.J. going to prison for life has gotten blown away by this campaign. But the credit crisis is all too real and is costing Americans untold billions of dollars.
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Chattanooga, Tenn.: Chevy Chase's depiction of Gerald Ford in the run-up to the 1976 election didn't exactly help the GOP, either.
Howard Kurtz: Good point. He was the first in a long line of presidential imitators on SNL.
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Long Island, N.Y.: Lost in the noise surrounding Tina Fey's Sarah Palin was an equally hysterical Jason Sudeikis playing Joe Biden during the debate bit on "Saturday Night Live." Even as a Biden fan, I found his lampooning his talk about growing up in Scranton, etc., a scream. Apparently "Saturday Night Live's mocking of Biden is not nearly as devastating to the audience as Fey's Palin.
Howard Kurtz: They nailed Biden. But doggone it, Tina Fey's resemblance to Sixpack Sarah puts that impression over the top.
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Bayville, N.J.: Last week, Prize-winning journalist Steve Pearlstein held a similar chat. Pearlstein, along with most of the mainstream media financial reporters/columnists, enthusiastically supported the $700 billion bailout and wrote with disdain about those who were "skeptical." Since then the Dow has plummeted 750 points, Europe's financial markets have tanked and California is asking for a $7 billion loan from Treasury to pay the bills. At what date, will these "experts" such as Pearlstein start writing their mea culpas on this bailout package?
Howard Kurtz: I don't think we can conclude from the market tanking that the bailout package was a bad idea. Maybe the Dow would have gone down 1,500 points without it. And the package may have already been priced into the stock market when it had those big rebound days in the expectation that Congress would approve some kind of bill. It may turn out that the bailout bill is a terrible idea, or was totally inadquate for the magnitude of the problem. But since it only passed Friday, it's a little early for a definitive judgment.
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Princeton, N.J.: But Steve Pearlstein was right years in advance!
Howard Kurtz: That's why he won a Pulitzer Prize in April. Which is not to say he was 100 percent right about everything, but he was certainly asking the right questions at a time when much of the media was not.
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Anonymous: I will admit "Saturday Night Live" was absolutely right in regard to its description of Scranton, Pa.
Howard Kurtz: Anyone from Scranton want to rebut the "hellhole" answer?
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Rolling Stone piece on McCain: Have you read the Rolling Stone write-up on McCain? It's fairly devastating, though I thought overly loaded with unnecessary descriptors. I'm wondering if any of this is going to bleed into the general consciousness through follow-up by reporters -- there are valid points regarding McCain's history of having poor judgment and the way he has packaged himself into something different than history shows.
Howard Kurtz: I haven't read it, but keep in mind that Rolling Stone has endorsed Barack Obama, that owner Jann Wenner has been granted interviews with Obama, and thus you wouldn't expect McCain to get terribly sympathetic coverage.
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Mindless Populism: Nice show yesterday. I loved how your guest Kathleen Parker started out with all of the vitriol the right-wing bloggers said of her. Could you repeat that?And what do you think Sarah Palin's Fox News vs. Anyone Else Interview Ratio will be?
Howard Kurtz: As Parker began her followup column: "Allow me to introduce myself. I am a traitor and an idiot. Also, my mother should have aborted me and left me in a dumpster, but since she didn't, I should off myself."
All for the sin of daring to say that in her opinion Palin is not qualified to be vice president.
On the second point, I don't know. But since the Katie debacle, Palin has spoken to Fox News, radio hosts Sean Hannity and Hugh Hewitt, and Bill Kristol.
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Medina, N.Y.: The "media elite" criticism -- is it something journalists are concerned about?
Howard Kurtz: We were just joking about that at a Georgetown cocktail party! Who cares what the unwashed masses think?
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Ayers and the New York Times: I'm not sure about your timeline, Howie. I thought the New York Times article -- which surely had been written and ready to go for a while -- was published because the McCain campaign was saying by the end of last week that it was planning to make a big negative push in October, with a particular emphasis on the Ayers connection. So it wasn't the publication of the article that spawned the campaign attacks (though Palin did cite it to support her point), but rather the reverse.
Howard Kurtz: I don't see it that way. It was an independently reported piece that did not seem to be pegged to any campaign development. By that standard, we should all go out and rehash the Jeremiah Wright story right now because Sarah Palin told Kristol she thinks it's a legitmate issue for the campaign.
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Burke, Va.: According to polls, blacks support Obama 95-2 percent. Yet most media talk is about hidden white racism against Obama. Maybe I missed it, but I have seen no in-depth analysis by your paper of any black racism against the white candidate, McCain. Or have your reporters decided that the 95 percent support is explained solely by an admirable racial pride? Should whites be able to vote on the basis of racial pride as well?
Howard Kurtz: There is a long history in this country of Italians voting for Italians, Irish voting for Irish, blacks voting for blacks (when that became possible), and so on. No one would dispute that racial and ethnic pride plays a role in voting behavior. The question of prejudice arises when someone votes against a candidate SOLELY BECAUSE of race or ethnicity. If voters who have always voted Democratic suddenly vote for McCain, that doesn't mean they're racist - they might just think McCain is a better or more experienced candidate than Obama. But racial attitudes could certainly play a role.
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Greatest Generation: Interesting how no one on the left is whining about Brokaw as a moderator. The man has written books, given countless interviews and appears to genuinely believe that the Greatest Generation of Americans were those that survived the depression and served during WWII. A generation with an inarguable belief in segregation. A generation which I firmly believe would not elect a black man to the presidency. This to Brokaw is the greatest because of the other accomplishments of the generation. Amazing how the left can see this as a belief that Brokaw has, but that he will remain a fair and unbiased moderator. Unlike the right, which went nutty over a yet unwritten book by Gwen Ifill.
Howard Kurtz: It's a ridiculous stretch to say that Brokaw, who covered the civil rights movement as a young reporter, is somehow endorsing the segregation and prejudice of that earlier generation in hailing them for winning World War II. And, of course, many African-Americans fought in that war.
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Houston loves Howie: Mr. Kurtz, I don't get to watch your TV show, I only read your columns. Are you having fun writing this election season?
Howard Kurtz: It would be very hard not to, with all the crazy twists and turns of this race.
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Princeton, N.J.: I think with all this talk about the biased press, we should go to that great philosopher Stephen Colbert who said: "Reporters must report just the facts. They must not be biased. But what do you do when the facts are biased?"
Howard Kurtz: Now that is a real problem facing America.
Thanks for the chat, folks.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: October 7, 2008
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The New York Times
October 5, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Capitalism to the Rescue
BYLINE: By JON GERTNER.
Jon Gertner is a contributing writer for the magazine.
SECTION: Section MM; Column 0; Magazine Desk; Pg. 54
LENGTH: 8229 words
How Green Was the Valley
One afternoon last May in Menlo Park, Calif., a venture capitalist named Ray Lane led me from his office to the parking lot, where an automobile had been delivered a few hours earlier by flatbed truck. The car, built in Norway, was powered by batteries and had a plug-in outlet hidden under a flip-top cover near the driver-side door. To my eye, the car resembled a generic European compact, but with some differences; the body, for instance, was made from a textured, plasticized material. In a lot full of gleaming new vehicles, some of them owned by the wealthiest venture capitalists in the United States, this car -- branded the Think -- seemed distinctive mainly for its lack of sparkle.
''You want to drive?'' Lane asked, tossing me the key. Inside, the dashboard was seemingly made of densely woven fabric, and the seat was covered in a material that felt decidedly un-Corinthian. ''The Think is 95 percent recyclable,'' Lane said matter-of-factly, giving me the sense that we were about to drive a milk carton rather than a car. A turn of the key started up a barely perceptible hum somewhere under the hood. ''There we go,'' Lane said, sitting back with a pleased expression. I shifted into drive and hit the gas pedal -- actually, the electricity pedal -- a little too hard, and the Think lurched forward.
It was one of those hot, dry, cloudless days on Sand Hill Road, the wide avenue in Silicon Valley lined with some of the country's most powerful venture-capital firms. It would have been a fine adventure to see if the Think could hit its top speed of 65 m.p.h. on U.S. 101, which snakes through Menlo Park and down into Mountain View, Sunnyvale and San Jose, high-tech towns where Lane and his colleagues at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers have been financing companies (Google and Netscape, among others) for the past 36 years. But this Think, one of only three in the United States, had no license plates or registration. So Lane and I explored the private streets around the two Kleiner Perkins buildings instead. As we drove, Lane told me that if things went well -- if the Think's manufacturing process could be made more efficient, for instance -- the car would go on sale in the United States in 2009. He said he hoped to sell several thousand in the first year and eventually reach annual sales in the tens of thousands, with a sticker price below $30,000. But then outcomes were hard to predict with precision, he admitted, even for venture capitalists who spend their working hours imagining the future.
It was late last winter when I began speaking with Lane and his partners at Kleiner Perkins. My conversations lasted to mid-September, just as the financial turmoil on Wall Street was leading to bank failures and jagged movements in the stock indexes. The firm wasn't unconcerned about the crisis -- problems with the markets could potentially slow down the development of some of the companies it backed. Still, most of its ventures were long-term investments. And entrepreneurs were still bringing new ideas through the door at a steady pace. ''I don't expect the credit crunch will change that,'' John Denniston, a Kleiner partner, said. Indeed, throughout the summer the partnership was raising hundreds of millions of dollars to pour into clean or green technologies -- in V.C.-speak, ''clean tech'' or ''green tech'' investments. By the beginning of autumn, Kleiner had financed 40 different green-tech companies and raised a total of about $1 billion to that end. Some of the firm's fledging green ventures were evolutionary improvements on current technologies that would soon hit the market, like the electric Think car. Others I heard about promised to revolutionize various aspects of the energy economy -- in, say, solar power or biofuels -- much as Netscape or Google remade the Web or Genentech (another Kleiner Perkins venture) ushered in the biotechnology era several decades earlier. In many parts of Silicon Valley, it seemed misguided to regard the U.S. economy as reliant solely on Wall Street. The future still depended on entrepreneurs and innovations and green-tech businesses getting ''traction,'' as the V.C.'s at Kleiner liked to say.
Kleiner was not the only venture firm that had suddenly seen the future and decided it was green. But Kleiner's past success tended to legitimize the prospects of business ideas that in many cases had spent decades on the economic fringe. California this past summer seemed like a fantasia of alternative-energy start-ups, where legions of garage tinkerers were taking a break from writing software code so they could help solve the climate problem. At Kleiner, which might have fielded perhaps a dozen business plans a year for new green-tech companies earlier this decade, at least 100 ideas were filtering in every month. The smooth-talking serial entrepreneurs, the university physicists toiling in obscurity, the great throngs of unshaven engineering grad students -- every day they were pitching low-carbon devices that utilized cow dung or nanofilm or supersecret ceramic compounds that had so much transformative potential they could be discussed only in the strictest confidence. John Doerr, one of Kleiner's managing partners and arguably the world's most influential venture capitalist, made the case to me in his office one morning in July that these were signs that the multitrillion-dollar energy market would inevitably, and imminently, undergo a wholesale eco-transformation. In the view of Doerr and his partners, Kleiner's efforts to seed this prospective renewable economy with its investments and the help of its new partner, Al Gore, would help address some of the most vexing problems of the modern era -- namely, climate change, fuel costs and energy independence. Amid economic hardship and the turmoil within the financial-services industry, such efforts could also contribute to a profusion of green jobs in technology as well as in manufacturing. On a different morning, another Kleiner partner, Randy Komisar, told me that the firm's green-tech investments didn't seem terribly risky to him because the energy market was so large and outdated. ''I'm so dead certain that we're solving the next huge problem for the planet,'' he said. ''I'm not very good at hitting the bull's-eye. I need a big target. And this is the biggest target I've ever seen in my life.''
Was this true? One heated topic of debate in the valley last summer was whether Kleiner had found a way to create yet another pile of riches or whether the firm was making a grievous miscalculation. What intrigued me most about Kleiner's plans, though, wasn't whether its green-tech investments would (or would not) reap huge financial returns, but whether this country's private sector, spurred primarily by venture capital, could start to change the way the U.S. and the world use energy. In many respects, the solutions to global warming and fuel prices have been defined over the past year almost exclusively in terms of government action -- the policies of a Barack Obama or a John McCain administration, in other words, that could effect a new energy infrastructure or help forge international treaties to reduce global carbon emissions. One shortcoming of this view is that while government has a longstanding role in underwriting scientific research and regulating or (with less positive results) deregulating industries, government doesn't really innovate, at least not in the sense of readying technologies for the marketplace and integrating those technologies into mainstream companies. That's left to firms like Kleiner, which happened to be financing precisely those kinds of businesses, but largely out of the public eye. If they were succeeding in green tech -- an uncertain prospect -- then conceivably big profits would follow, not to mention a social and environmental dividend for the rest of us.
'The Map of Grand Challenges' as Investment Plan
While venture capitalists are sometimes mistaken for their cousins who work in private equity, they tend to have a very different role within the U.S. economy. Private equity funds invest large sums -- hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars -- on existing businesses. V.C. funds, by contrast, typically back entrepreneurs clutching a coffee-stained business plan. The V.C.'s swap money (often anywhere from $1 million to $15 million) for an ownership stake (usually from 20 to 40 percent) in the start-up. And the sums that a firm like Kleiner invests each year are modest compared with what a company like General Electric might spend on research and development. Yet venture dollars can be extremely potent. Many of the most innovative American companies -- FedEx, Amazon, Apple and Google, for instance -- have received venture money; a recent study by Global Insight noted that such businesses now account for nearly 18 percent of America's gross domestic product and 9 percent of our private-sector employment. According to Josh Lerner of the Harvard Business School, ''When you try to quantify it, a dollar of venture capital is somewhat equal to three or four dollars of corporate R&D.'' But one of the larger misunderstandings is that all V.C.'s have a Midas touch and a private jet. ''I think it's fair to say that by and large the median venture fund is a quite disappointing performer,'' Lerner says. ''Most of them are losers.'' Still, he adds, the data suggest that a few V.C. firms -- like Kleiner Perkins, or its neighbor the Sequoia Fund -- seem to do well year after year.
Kleiner's offices in Menlo Park have been described as a temple of capitalism, but inside they feel more like a ski chalet of capitalism. Set far back from the bustle of Sand Hill Road, the firm occupies two cedar-shingled, Arts and Crafts-style buildings shaded by redwood trees. Most of the firm's 29 partners occupy glassed-in offices around a common area with exposed wood beams that support a soaring, peaked ceiling. A breakfast is laid out on a table in the common area each morning; at about noon, chafing dishes arrive with lunch. Kleiner is among the most rarefied of guilds. Every few years, the firm raises a pool of money that ranges from $500 million to $700 million; the pool gets a name that includes Roman numerals -- the most recent is KPCBXIII -- and serves as a kind of bank account that the partners use to invest in 30 to 40 business ideas. Many venture firms struggle to raise this kind of money. At Kleiner, it pours in without much apparent effort. It comes from the Kleiner partners themselves, from foundations and university endowments (Stanford, Harvard, Yale, among others) and from wealthy individuals (the Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, for instance) who are allowed -- ''by invitation only,'' as one partner put it -- to add a few million to the Kleiner pot. Most of these elite investors, known as limited partners, are also Kleiner's helpers; they often direct ideas or new entrepreneurs to the firm. Kleiner is, in essence, a mutual-interest society of wealth, knowledge and connections, and even if you wanted to, even if you begged, you couldn't invest with them.
Traditionally, the firm has split its investments between digital-technology companies and health-related companies. Occasionally there are forays into businesses that fit neither category, however. One of these was Kleiner's humiliating investment in Segway, the maker of the battery-powered scooter, which, back in 2001, John Doerr predicted would be the fastest company in history to hit $1 billion in sales. Seven years later, Segway is not even close. Nonetheless, Segway yielded a different kind of return. The vehicle's creator, the inventor Dean Kamen, spent time at Kleiner talking with Doerr and his partners about the challenges in providing a growing and increasingly urban global population with clean water and energy. And, as it happened, around the time of the Segway's debut, Kleiner received a proposal from a professor at the University of Arizona named K. R. Sridhar, a former NASA scientist, who was working on a solid-oxide fuel cell in his garage in Tucson. Fuel cells are an old technology, dating back more than 150 years; they convert a fuel, like natural gas, into electricity through chemical reaction rather than combustion. Sridhar's pitch had some novel technological aspects, and his business plan called for making energy generators -- essentially, large box-shaped units for a home basement, or an office building -- for buyers who either had no access to an electrical grid or wanted to disconnect themselves from one. ''You could put natural gas into it and get electricity out,'' Aileen Lee, the partner at Kleiner who researched Sridhar's proposal, told me. ''Or it could be fuel-flexible'' -- meaning the boxes could run on, say, ethanol. At least in theory, the units, which Sridhar called Bloom boxes, would be reliable, quiet and very low in carbon emissions.
I heard a number of explanations about why the firm paused after investing in Bloom Energy in 2002. The consensus seems to be that it took time for the partnership to be persuaded that the economy would move in a greener direction and that green tech would have far larger potential payoffs than, say, the ideas for Web sites that were being financed at the time. Then, in late 2006, at one of Kleiner's corporate retreats, Bill Joy, a founder of Sun Microsystems and a new partner at the firm, displayed what later became known within Kleiner as ''the map of grand challenges.'' This was a matrix of colored squares that itemized the firm's progress in locating potential investments in about 40 different categories: water, transportation, energy efficiency, electricity generation, energy storage and the like. In the blank spots there were lists of ''things that ought to be possible,'' in Doerr's words -- ideas, in short, that might produce huge changes and, if Kleiner bought a stake, huge profits. Thus the grand map was a rough, imaginary outline of a clean-energy economy that didn't really exist and perhaps wouldn't in any meaningful way for decades. But it helped Kleiner understand what to look for. That same year, Kleiner officially informed its investors that it would begin putting $100 million of its newest fund in green technology. Doerr, Joy, Ray Lane and John Denniston all joined the green-tech group.
There was little doubt that partners like Lane and Doerr, who have countless connections within America's high-tech worlds, would get good green-tech pitches as word got around. In the meantime, Joy and his more technically minded colleagues ''went outbound,'' in Joy's words, which meant they started scouring laboratories throughout the United States, as well as academic departments around the world, for energy ideas that could satisfy challenges on the grand map. It has become a kind of received wisdom that American and European laboratories have yet to come up with enough innovations to ease our dependence on fossil fuels, or that effective (and affordable) technological solutions to climate change are still many decades away. In truth, there have been scores of recent scientific developments in wind, solar, biofuels and energy efficiency that have not yet entered the market, in part because the private sector has deemed them risky investments in a world where gas, coal and electricity are cheap. As Andy Karsner, who recently stepped down as the Department of Energy assistant secretary in charge of renewables, told me, ''Venture capital's interest in the sector didn't arise until price signals and climate change came into play a few years ago.'' Before that, he says, green technology ''was in a state of suspended animation.'' Dan Arvizu, the head of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., echoes this sentiment. Whenever Arvizu testifies in front of Congress on the state of renewables, he told me: ''They always ask the same questions -- 'When is this going to be real?' And I say: 'It's real now.' ''
Kleiner's partners largely shared this view. ''Our overarching thesis,'' Bill Joy says, ''was that a lot of stuff had already been developed, but there were things that were not yet commercialized because they had been frozen by the low price of oil. The innovation had occurred, but they hadn't been deployed.'' In addition to a number of California ventures, Joy and his colleagues ultimately tracked down worthy ideas in Massachusetts, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Georgia, as well as in Israel, Germany and China. One morning early in the summer, I had breakfast with Joy in Manhattan, and he took a folded sheet of paper from his pocket to show me what remained of the map of grand challenges, under the condition that I would keep confidential the technologies that were not public knowledge. Some slots remained open, but the firm had identified a number of projects that could be deployed quickly as well as longer-term proposals that might be called breakthroughs. Whether any would turn into flourishing companies -- let alone another Google -- was a far more unpredictable matter. For the time being, at least, Kleiner's partners had assembled the ideas for what they intuited to be the future. At one point during his globe-trotting pursuits, Joy recalled, John Doerr turned to him and said, ''I don't think anyone has ever really done venture capital this way.''
From Idea to I.P.O.
If you look over Kleiner's clean-energy portfolio, it's apparent that the firm has made a number of large and risky bets. In part this is because of the evolving economics of venture capital: to get the returns its investors have come to expect -- the firm says it has returned an average of $1 billion in profits per year to its investors over the past decade -- Kleiner has to produce one or two magical success stories every few years. Some of the risk taking, however, is a product of the firm's culture. Brook Byers, the firm's longest-serving partner, told me the place depends on a complementary mix of talents. This has been the case since the beginning, in 1972, when Eugene Kleiner, an engineer who had worked at the valley's earliest semiconductor companies, went into business with Tom Perkins, a former executive at Hewlett-Packard. Kleiner, who died a few years ago, was an Austrian-born intellectual of modest tastes -- ''a very soft-spoken, very wise, very gentle man,'' according to Doerr. Perkins was a brash gambler who would later build one of the world's most expensive yachts. You could argue that Perkins, now retired, left the larger imprint on the firm. As Doerr told me, ''Tom would say, 'When you have a great opportunity, push all the chips, all the resources that you can, to the center of the table.' '' Perkins, Doerr added, was more his mentor than Kleiner was.
Bloom Energy is a good example of a venture where the chips are now piled high. Though you wouldn't know it from appearances. Located in a modest, unmarked one-story building with large plate-glass windows off the highway in Sunnyvale, Calif., Bloom is one of the companies in the Kleiner portfolio closest to unveiling a commercial product. Over the past two and a half years, engineers at the University of Tennessee in Chattanooga have been testing a five-kilowatt Bloom box, which looks like a squat refrigerator and produces about as much electricity as a typical home requires. And at this point there seems little doubt that the idea K. R. Sridhar pitched to Kleiner in 2001 has become a high-functioning machine. ''We installed one of his first units here to assess its durability and performance, to see if it matched the claims,'' Henry McDonald, a professor at Tennessee who is overseeing the Bloom box, says. McDonald ran the box nonstop on natural gas for 6,000 hours, and its performance beat expectations. In everyday terms, the box was twice as efficient as a boiler burning natural gas, and its carbon emissions were 60 percent lower.
Kleiner didn't invest in Bloom for precisely these reasons. Rather, the firm's partners say that Bloom could eventually sell hundreds of thousands of boxes, either at the 5-kilowatt size or as larger, 100-kilowatt machines that power buildings or neighborhoods. The company's ambitions are indeed breathtaking in scope. As Sridhar told me, referring to the world's population: ''Two billion people have no access to electricity. And of the other four billion people with access, probably two billion are actually getting below their demands.'' That makes for a lot of potential users of his product. Sridhar also contended that even here, in the developed world, where the grid is reliable and electricity comparatively cheap, Bloom could find willing customers under the right circumstances. He showed me his first Bloom fuel cell, the one he made eight years ago in his garage in Arizona with some colleagues; it resembled a flat, rectangular metal plate, about the size of a pack of Chiclets. Etched across its face was a geometric pattern of tiny equilateral triangles. The prototype produced a couple of watts of electricity, he said, not even enough to power a light bulb. ''This is what I showed Kleiner as the proof of concept,'' Sridhar recalled. ''I said, 'This is what we can use to power the world and change the world.' ''
Entrepreneurs sometimes refer to the period between a project's origins and its commercial deployment as ''the valley of death.'' The meaning of the term may be self-evident: it is the bog where most ideas stall and expire. Kleiner's partners will tell you that ventures usually die because they fail to overcome one of four risk factors. To begin with, there is technology risk. As Ted Schlein, a Kleiner partner, put it one morning: ''Can it be built? How hard is it to build it? And if you can build it, can other people build it just as well?'' Next, Schlein said, is what he and his partners call ''people risk.'' How good is the team pitching the idea, and can its members execute their idea well? The third risk involves selling a product in the market, which most Kleiner partners believe is the hardest to gauge before making an investment. In Schlein's words: ''O.K., let's say we can build it and get great people. Will anyone buy it?''
The final risk is financial. Venture capitalists who back a company in its earliest stages, as Kleiner did with Bloom, typically invest only a fraction of what it takes to bring a business to market; as the company grows, the rest of the financing necessary comes at later stages -- known as ''B rounds,'' ''C rounds'' and so forth -- from other V.C. firms and outside investment funds. Companies that have problems with their technology, management teams or marketing have difficulty attracting more financing. With green tech, this may prove especially dire. Software or Web-site development can be fast and relatively cheap -- a couple of years, say, and a total of $50 million before a company can go public. A medical venture can cost double that amount and take up to a decade to mature. Green tech may well require more time and money than either. For companies requiring industrial production -- those making fuel cells or solar installations, for example -- Doerr estimated it would take anywhere from $200 million to $500 million to get them ready for public offerings. ''It took $25 million of venture capital to get Google into business,'' he said. ''It's taken $250 million of private capital to get Bloom into business. Google was five years from when we invested to an I.P.O. Bloom is six years since we invested to today.'' If Bloom has an initial public offering, it probably won't be for at least another few years.
A number of young companies, like SunPower and First Solar, have proved that green businesses can go from start-up stage to I.P.O. and be quite profitable. But the technology developed by those companies took well more than a decade to prove itself, and many other companies have died in the meantime. In recent months, Kleiner has tried to exploit investment opportunities in these long and complex start-up periods. The firm just raised $500 million for its Green Growth Fund, which is separate from typical Kleiner funds like KPCBXIII, to invest in up-and-running ''later-stage'' green-tech companies that need money to continue growing. (As an example, Green Growth has recently been considering an investment in an energy-efficiency company that sells wireless communications devices that utilities can install in the electrical grid -- and within homes -- to save power and money.) Meanwhile, almost all of the other companies in Kleiner's green-tech portfolio, including Bloom, continue the treacherous slog to commercialization. In talking about this process with Kleiner partners, there can be a robotic quality to their conversation; they all tend say that they are ''company builders,'' or that ''the least important thing we bring to the table is money.'' By some measures, Kleiner is not necessarily the most popular firm in the valley; a new Web site, for instance, thefunded.com, which lets entrepreneurs rate their interactions with V.C.'s, gives the firm mediocre marks. Still, there's truth to the assertion that Kleiner's value isn't so much its money as its worldliness: it can hire talented executives, offer expert advice on marketing and tap additional cash for growth. Moreover, a team that includes Al Gore and Colin Powell (who is also affiliated with Kleiner), as well as an extended network of well-heeled investors, provides something of a head start.
Ray Lane often divides the firm's partners into technologists and networkers. In the first category are people like Bill Joy, whom the firm depends on to analyze the technical feasibility of green-tech ideas. Then there are those like Lane himself, a former president of the Oracle Corporation, and Doerr, a Kleiner veteran of 28 years, who use their vast numbers of contacts -- in business, academia and politics -- to help start-ups. ''I probably have 6,000 people in my Rolodex,'' Lane told me, adding that he and Doerr have a friendly competition over who has more. When Trae Vassallo, a partner in the firm, was flying around the world researching geothermal energy, Lane helped her arrange a tour of Iceland's geothermal plants with Olafur Ragnar Grimsson. Grimsson is the president of Iceland, and Lane apparently knows him well. When Lane and I first met, he had just returned from Qatar, where he saw the country's emir and took the opportunity to tell him about Ausra, one of Kleiner's more promising investments, which uses mirrors to concentrate solar energy on water pipes to produce steam and, in turn, electricity.
Renewable energy may ultimately be about the environment, but it is perhaps about economics first and foremost. To take an example, Kleiner could have backed a number of other solar-thermal companies besides Ausra. The company's appeal, according to Vassallo, was not so much technical wizardry as ''a simplicity and elegance of design'' that persuaded the partners its installations would be durable, easy to manufacture and easy to operate. Moreover, because the technology uses available commodities -- steel, glass and ordinary turbines -- it could be deployed quickly. Before investing, Kleiner commissioned two consulting firms to assess how much Ausra's power would cost, and the resulting studies concluded its electricity could be 15 to 20 percent cheaper than that produced by its solar-thermal competition. Soon thereafter, Kleiner backed the company. When I visited the Ausra offices, just off U.S. Route 101 in Palo Alto, Calif., the company's C.E.O., Bob Fishman, told me Ausra's low costs would allow it to compete in the mainstream energy market, not just in the renewable-energy market. (In California, state mandates make it possible for solar companies to gain a modest foothold.) A new factory in Las Vegas was producing mirrors and parts, and the firm's West Coast solar installations should bring power to about 125,000 homes by 2011. Soon ''we want to go after gas and coal and displace them,'' Fishman said.
Unlike Ausra, most of the Kleiner's green-tech investments are not publicly discussed. By my count, the firm has acknowledged 15 of its 40 investments. The rest are in what V.C.'s call ''stealth'' mode, hidden from the press (and copycat V.C.'s) until they are on sounder footing. Last summer, the growing number of stealth companies involved with clean energy formed a kind of dark matter in the Silicon Valley universe, businesses that could not be seen yet nevertheless exerted a discernible gravitational pull. Executives would suddenly leave jobs at established companies to join ventures with no official name. Manufacturing facilities would set up shop in cheap, anonymous buildings in towns like Santa Clara, Calif., then begin round-the-clock operations. When Kleiner decided to invest in a company called FloDesign, a business in Massachusetts, sensitive pages on its Web site were quickly dismantled; when Kleiner decided to invest in a company known as Sundrop Fuels, online links that described the technology, which was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, were removed. In some respects, the more promising the technology, the more secretive the venture becomes. And both FloDesign and Sundrop were indeed promising. FloDesign intends to replace the common propeller wind turbine with something that resembles a jet engine. Doerr told me that the company's product, which is perhaps 18 months away from a prototype, would cost 25 percent less than any other kind of wind generation -- that could make it one of the cheapest renewable-energy sources in the world. Sundrop, meanwhile, is what Joe Lacob, a Kleiner partner, calls ''solar assisted'' fuel generation -- a process that combines the ingredients of carbon, hydrogen and sunlight to create a petrol-like product. ''We can actually take CO2,'' Lacob told me, ''which is what we're trying to get rid of, and make that our source of carbon, and use the sun's energy to create liquid fuels.''
Bloom Energy is not in stealth mode, but the company has been loath to offer progress reports, leading some in the venture community to wonder what $250 million in financing has actually achieved. The company's Web site, like those of many green-tech start-ups, is a prop, a confection of environmental images devoid of links or information. At the offices of Bloom, which now has over 200 employees, I questioned Sridhar about the willful obscurity, when Bloom will almost certainly have a commercial product ready within a year or two. He answered that there have been too many promises in the past, from both fuel-cell makers and other green-technology companies, that have never delivered on the hopes they stirred up. ''We want our product to speak before we speak,'' he said.
The V.C.s Make the Case for Government Regulation
As the summer wore on, Bloom and Ausra hit various benchmarks on the path to commercialization. Bloom made a highly technical breakthrough to improve its fuel cell's efficiency; Ausra, at a remote test installation outside Bakersfield, Calif., in late August, began producing steam at about 600 degrees Fahrenheit -- proof that its technical risk had been mostly overcome. To Kleiner's partners, watching such innovation happen in real time was largely satisfying. To an outsider, it seemed wearying. Rather than a swift series of eureka moments, progress took shape in setting goals, testing, tweaking and then setting more goals. Still, in September, Ray Lane told me he had concluded there were about 15 ''Google-type opportunities'' among the firm's green-tech investments. Unfortunately, he added, Kleiner's history suggests that the firm hits only one Google-type jackpot every few years. So either Ausra or Bloom might be a big winner. Or neither might. Kleiner's partners knew perfectly well that they needed to cover their bets. Hence the company had two other automotive-company investments besides the Think car. In addition to Bloom, there were two other fuel-cell ventures. There were five different investments in solar photovoltaic companies, several battery and electrical-storage investments and about a half-dozen bets on biofuels.
The venture capitalists at Kleiner nevertheless maintained their optimism. ''If you have anxiety,'' Brook Byers told me, ''this isn't a good business to be in.'' Or as Lane remarked: ''If I had to guess, five years from now this is going to be a topic at the dinner table -- the price of electricity, electric cars. Maybe not at the technical level we're talking now. But it's going to be routine.'' What makes Kleiner's green-tech ventures so risky, though, is that an assumption by the partners -- a profitable market for biofuels, for example -- could be correct and the investments could still falter. ''If you look out far enough, I have no doubt that many of the bets will pay off,'' says Paul Kedrosky, a former investment banker, blogger and longtime observer of the venture-capital industry. ''But in the venture business, being early is indistinguishable from being wrong. That's why everyone is terrified of being too early.'' In other words, imagine if electric cars become dinner-table conversation 10 years from now, rather than 5. As Harvard's Josh Lerner notes, it would be difficult for any venture firm to keep financing its start-ups for so long. And Kleiner has not yet had what V.C.'s call an ''exit'' in green tech -- meaning an I.P.O. or sale of a start-up to a private firm. It may be early still. At some point, though, the V.C.'s have to find a way to profitably disengage from their projects. ''Exiting,'' Lerner says, ''is ultimately the crucial thing.''
If technology cannot provide a safety net for green-tech investments, politics just might. At Kleiner, you rarely go a day without hearing how new federal laws that put a price on carbon emissions, for example, and that mandate levels of renewable electricity production could speed the adoption of green energy. The partners often made the case to me that if our national science budget for renewables and efficiency (about $1 billion annually) were brought in line with that of the National Institutes of Health (about $29 billion), a torrent of projects and jobs would be unleashed. So it's no surprise, of course, that partners like Doerr, Lane and Denniston have sought meetings with senators and governors, testified before Congress and pushed their message through lobbying channels like the National Venture Capital Association. Kleiner's partners told me that their portfolio could be very profitable without any public-sector policy changes, but it's hard to see how that could be the case. A price on carbon could, in one quick stroke, make Ausra's carbon-free solar electricity even cheaper than coal- or gas-powered electricity, which would both rise in cost because they produce CO2; as a result, there would be virtually no limit to the demand for Ausra power. That's how you get a green-tech Google.
To be sure, Kleiner is hardly alone in its agitation for new energy policies. Many of this country's largest corporations -- G.E., G.M., Dow Chemical, DuPont -- now support cap-and-trade laws on carbon. The presidential candidates' energy ideas differ in significant ways, yet Obama and McCain both back legislation to control carbon emissions. When I asked Robert Socolow -- a physicist at Princeton who helped create an influential framework, known as stabilization wedges, for steadying global carbon emissions -- which was more important, new technologies or new policies, he challenged my premise. ''You can't separate the two,'' he told me. ''The policy elicits the technology. The interactions are fundamental.'' Jeffrey Sachs, an economist and the head of Columbia University's Earth Institute, put it this way: ''I think the private-sector investments that are being made are going to make a very big difference, but one can see where the bottlenecks will come if this is only left to private capital.'' Sachs notes that putting a price on carbon is a crucial action. But it's not the only one. The electricity grid, he says, would almost surely need to be rebuilt as the country switched to renewables, a change requiring federal financing and policy action in land use, interstate law and liability.
It's worth asking, perhaps, if new energy legislation could spark a tulipmania-like bubble in green tech. At the moment, amid the suffering economy, public stock offerings are at a standstill, and green technologies remain a risk mainly for V.C.'s and investment bankers. But fond memories of the Internet era remain fresh at Kleiner. Doerr told me he remembers being in a grocery-store line in 1995, in Colorado, a few days after Netscape went public. To his surprise, several people in line were discussing Netscape's share price. ''For it to have penetrated the national consciousness?'' he recalled. ''It was a large step forward that said, Hey, there was a gold rush on with respect to the Internet.'' In his view, bubbles -- Doerr affectionately calls them booms -- often have a way of building up a useful infrastructure, even when they expand too far. Energy would be a far bigger market than the Internet, meaning a much bigger boom.
Doerr expects several Kleiner green-tech ventures to have I.P.O.'s within the next few years. But he dismissed the possibility that his enthusiasm for the energy sector might already be overheated. ''I believe what we're investing now,'' he told me, ''is a pittance in comparison to the size of the opportunity and the size of the problem.''
When I later parsed what Doerr was saying, I could see that on this occasion, as in others, he had woven the financial and redemptive strands of green tech together. At times, this tendency leads to controversy. When Doerr made an impassioned speech at a 2007 technology conference urging the business community to recognize that confronting global warming was a route to both salvation and profits, the idea was subject to mockery in some quarters of the business community. ''Clean tech brings out a really emotional response in people in the valley,'' Paul Kedrosky says. ''They react strongly to the idea that this has to succeed because it's really important, because it's too big to fail. Because that has nothing to do with whether or not you can make money on it.'' From some of Kleiner's competitors I heard criticisms that Doerr was betting the firm on perhaps an idealistic quest. But there doesn't seem to be much truth to the claim. In dozens of interviews at Kleiner it seemed clear that Doerr and his colleagues were not, despite their concerns about climate change, basing decisions on where they could do the most good. They were chasing the best returns. If you look back at more than a decade's worth of Doerr's interviews, you'll see that he has always called attention to the byproducts of his investments -- namely, new jobs and new technologies -- in an effort to stir up excitement, business prospects and perhaps benevolent public policy. Climate issues are merely the latest addition to his sales pitch about the social value of venture capital. When I asked Doerr whether he was investing to save the environment, he said, ''We are ruthlessly single-minded about our job, which is to make a lot of money for our investors.'' In his view, the process of making that money could change the world. But the firm was not directly pursuing a ''cause.'' If some of Kleiner's investors -- colleges, foundations and philanthropists -- wanted to do that with their profits, he added, then that was up to them.
Al Gore, Environmental Optimist?
If Kleiner's best investments were to overcome their technical and financial risks -- and if they got a boost from new federal policies -- would they clear a quicker path to energy independence? Or have a sudden impact on carbon emissions? At a talk on green tech at M.I.T. last April, Doerr said: ''To get solutions at scale, we're going to have to find answers that are economic for all people everywhere. We've got to use policy to harness innovation to make sure that the right thing to do is a profitable thing to do -- so it becomes the probable thing to have happen.'' In his folksy manner, this was his way of expressing how green tech could infiltrate our businesses and culture. Academics sometimes call this process the diffusion of technology. Diffusion can go very fast, as has been the case with personal computers or with Web applications like Facebook. But in the field of energy, history is less encouraging: new technologies have moved quite slowly into the mainstream. It has been 54 years, for instance, since the silicon solar cell was invented in New Jersey at Bell Laboratories. A front-page article in this newspaper heralded the breakthrough as something that promised to revolutionize the world. It hasn't yet, of course.
Perhaps the most challenging aspect of Kleiner's endeavor, then, is for green tech to expand into the markets more rapidly than any energy technology has done before. In a conversation I had with Al Gore in early September, I asked how that would be possible. Gore shows up at Kleiner's offices several times a month to share his political and environmental insights. (When I asked Gore what he thought he brings to Kleiner, he quipped, ''I think it's my knowledge of subatomic physics.'') He became involved in private-sector climate solutions because, he said, ''more money is allocated in the private markets in one hour than in all of the budgets of all of the governments of the world in a year's time.'' The trends that have governed the development of alternative-energy technologies till now, he said, aren't a result of some natural scientific law. Echoing a point Bill Joy made to me a few months earlier, Gore said cheap oil had made renewable technologies less appealing as investments, which in turn had made it difficult to bring clean-energy costs down through mass production. Gore used the example of digital products: prices have come down, even as sophistication has gone up, thanks to Moore's Law, which describes how computer chips double in capacity every two years or so. ''How slowly these technologies have been developed in the past,'' Gore said of green tech, has ''limited bearing on how quickly we could deploy them in the future, if we wanted to.'' Solar-thermal companies like Ausra could soon be competitive with coal-based electricity production, he said. And when the governments of the world assign a price to carbon, he added -- as he believes they will within a year or two -- demand for carbon-free electricity will explode.
From Gore, a bearer of bad tidings when it comes to climate news, this seemed to strike a more hopeful tone. ''My previous optimism involved an act of will that occasionally was hard to reconcile with the worsening reality,'' he told me. His optimism had recently grown considerably, partly because of the prospect of new policies on carbon emissions, and partly because of innovations he'd seen at Kleiner. Some of these were green-tech companies, Gore said, that were in ''deep, deep stealth''; they were known to no one except for a few V.C.'s and the entrepreneurs themselves. I heard a similar point elsewhere. John Doerr's speech last spring at M.I.T., for instance, was notably more upbeat than the emotional one he gave at the 2007 technology conference, where he said, ''I don't think we're going to make it.'' I recently asked Doerr how he felt now. ''I'm more optimistic about the innovation that will occur,'' he replied. ''I'm more humbled by the scale of what has to be done. Or more sober. And I'm particularly concerned about the speed.'' The green-energy technologies Kleiner was investing in, Doerr continued, ''won't impact the problem at scale in the next five years, just because they have long development times associated with them. In the 5-to-15-year period of time, I think they'll demonstrate, and clearly point the path to, lower costs than we would have otherwise imagined possible.''
The difficulties along the way can't be understated. Many green-tech companies are building products that require entirely new industrial processes, which might trap them in a kind of innovator's paradox. At Ausra or Bloom, for instance, it will be challenging, early on, to reach the stage of mass production because there aren't enough buyers willing to pay for the costly products. On the other hand, the products are so costly because they are not being mass-produced. Historical patterns of innovation suggest that novel products succeed in the marketplace by exploiting a niche as their sales steadily expand and as their performance improves and costs go down. Ausra has the good fortune to have contracts with California electricity providers. But the company intends to stake out other niches too -- selling solar-thermal installations to companies that require large quantities of steam for food production or oil production, for example, or to coal-fired power plants to supply some of the steam that runs their turbine generators. The latter use has the potential to reduce a coal plant's carbon footprint more cheaply than buying equipment to capture smokestack emissions.
At Bloom, K. R. Sridhar told me he considers his challenge akin to what cellphone makers encountered a few decades ago. Cellphones were initially balky and expensive; they created a niche market of users in the developed world who appreciated the phones for their portability. In developing countries, governments and entrepreneurs found it cheaper to build cellular networks than land lines. Eventually costs decreased, reliability improved and sales soared. In several conversations, Sridhar advanced this process as a model for Bloom. In the U.S. and Europe, he told me, Bloom has to be just as reliable as the power grid and priced competitively. In areas where the grid is stressed and utilities are reluctant to build expensive new power plants, he could sell his fuel cells to new hospital buildings, big-box retail stores and computer-data centers. ''In the developing world,'' Sridhar said, ''we don't have to compete with the grid price of electricity.'' The biggest hurdle, as he saw it, would be up-front capital costs -- helping energy entrepreneurs finance the purchase of a Bloom box, for instance, so they could create a ''microgrid'' that serves several hundred homes and stores. This is Sridhar's dream for civilization. Ultimately, the Bloom box could offer low-emission, 24-hour-a-day power to villages in Asia and Africa that have never possessed modern appliances or to cities that have never experienced reliability.
His immense ambitions were not unlike those of Amyris, a biofuels company in Kleiner's portfolio located in Emeryville, Calif., next to Oakland. Amyris is synthetically engineering new strains of yeast that will convert organic matter -- Brazilian sugar cane, initially -- into renewable fuels for automobiles, trucks and jets. Its diesel has a carbon footprint 80 percent smaller than that of regular diesel. ''Between now and 2020, here's what we think is possible,'' John Melo, Amyris's C.E.O. told me. ''Somewhere around 20 percent to 30 percent combined jet fuel and diesel'' will be produced globally through a renewable process like the Amyris technology. Without impinging on rain-forest land or food production, Melo maintained, Brazil could produce 100 billion gallons of biofuel annually from cane; Africa could produce a slightly smaller amount. (Last year, U.S. drivers consumed 140 billion gallons of gasoline.) Melo, who used to be president for U.S. fuel operations for BP, told me the first niche market for Amyris would be tractors and trucks at sugar mills in Brazil in 2010; U.S. trucking fleets and diesel cars would follow in 2012. In the meantime, the company would be working on a product for military and commercial jets. How much could he produce renewable diesel for? ''Our cost in Brazil is about $1.80, $1.85 a gallon,'' he said. Transport costs would add another 40 cents per gallon. At the time, the wholesale cost of diesel in the U.S. was around $4 gallon. ''So this is profitable venture,'' Melo concluded. ''By 2012 to 2013, our profits could be higher than many Fortune 500 companies.''
As with most of Kleiner's green-tech ventures, it was a financial outcome that wasn't yet certain in a future that wasn't yet real. And would it even get the chance? There were impediments for sure -- Brazil's regulatory ministries might not like the idea of genetically engineered yeast, or a competitor to Amyris might dominate the market. So maybe it wouldn't work. Or maybe it would. Melo and I were talking in a conference room with panoramic views of the East Bay. It was hot outside and warm inside; an assistant had brought in water, and the ice was melting quickly in our glasses. Seen out the window, the freeways were jammed. Oil was more than $100 a barrel. But for a brief moment, at least, in the realm of the venture capitalists, this particular idea, like so many of the others I'd heard, seemed bright with possibility, and I understood why Doerr and Gore had given in a little bit to hope. Almost anything seemed possible.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: May 18, 2011
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Off the Grid: Bloom Energy's fuel cells, a low-emission, ''fuel flexible'' power source -- and one of Kleiner Perkins's biggest green-tech bets. (pg.MM55)
Ausra, a start-up in Palo Alto, Calif., uses mirrors to concentrate solar energy on water pipes to produce steam and, ultimately, electricity. The first installation, in 2011, should power more than 100,000 homes. (pg.MM57)
A fermenter in a lab at Amyris, a California company that plans to use synthetic yeast to convert sugar into diesel and jet fuel. The potential market is huge, but its success is hardly guaranteed. (pg.MM58)
Miasole, one of five solar photovoltaic companies in Kleiner's green-tech portfolio, creates ''thin film'' solar cells at its factory in Santa Clara, Calif. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY MITCH EPSTEIN) (pg.MM61)
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
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The New York Times
October 5, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Swedish Spoken Here
BYLINE: By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 9
LENGTH: 801 words
I was talking to friend in New York City the other day about the current financial crisis, and she told me about a scene she had just witnessed in the lobby of the Warwick Hotel. Four Swedish tourists, who clearly had been on a shopping spree in Manhattan, fueled by the still cheap dollar, were trying to cram all their purchases into four suitcases. They had bought a hand-held scale -- one of those you just grip onto the suitcase and lift -- to make sure all their American goodies were not overweight for the flight home.
Another friend of mine in the ship-supply business in Baltimore, Alan Kotz, told me about a German customer who recently put in double his normal order. When Alan asked him if he was aware of how much he had ordered, the German brushed his question away and laughed: ''Alan, nevermind, everything for us is half price.''
And a good thing it is. Even though the dollar has strengthened a bit lately, we are going to need foreigners and sovereign wealth funds from China, Asia, Europe and the Middle East more than ever to survive this crisis -- and they are going to need us to be healthy as well. In the process, we are going to become even more intertwined and dependent on the rest of the world.
Sarah Palin won't have to worry that she doesn't know what the Bush doctrine is. No one really knew what it meant. But it had something to do with the unilateral exercise of American power, and the next president's ability to act unilaterally on anything other than vital national security issues is going to be reduced. As the old saying goes: He who has the gold makes the rules. Well, we no longer have as much gold, and until we get some, we will have to pay more heed to the rules of those who lend us theirs.
At a time when the U.S. government gets half its borrowings from abroad, at a time when the U.S. household savings rate is hovering around zero and China alone is already holding around $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury notes and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds -- yes, that's how you got that cheap subprime mortgage -- it can't be any other way.
Somebody better tell John McCain: We are all Swedes now. Forget about ''Live Free or Die.'' Until we get our financial act together, our motto is going to be: ''Swedish spoken here -- or Arabic or Chinese or German ...''
I would also bet that more and more of the foreign investors who come our way are going to want to buy hard, tangible assets -- skyscrapers, real estate and real companies -- not just mutual funds, T-bills, bank stocks or other equities. No problem. Americans own assets all over the world; foreigners have long owned substantial positions in U.S. companies. That's globalization -- and now you are going to see globalization and financial integration on steroids. It should help us, but also change us.
''The next round of capital that comes in from abroad is going to be much more demanding and move into real assets,'' argued Jeffrey Garten, professor of trade and finance at the Yale School of Management. ''Being a bigger debtor nation means losing even more of our sovereignty. It means conducting our economic policies with an eye toward whether others approve. It means bearing the advice and criticism that we have dispensed ad nauseam to other countries for over half a century. It means far more intensive consultations with other capitals on our fiscal policies and our monetary policies.''
At the same time, added Garten, ''Corporate decisions will become more sensitive to international factors, in part because more non-Americans will be on the governing boards.'' Ultimately, this could make American industry even more globally competitive -- but for those who can't pass global muster or enlist global collaborators, the consequences could be harsh.
Of course, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain dare talk about this now. They want to pretend nothing has really changed. The minute one of them steps into the Oval Office, they will tell us otherwise. That will be the January surprise.
There was a lot of talk after Russia invaded Georgia that globalization was over and we were seeing the return of ''history'' and the primacy of politics over economics. I think not. Politics and economics are always inextricably intertwined. History-making is rarely free. The Russian stock market has been hammered as a result of its invasion of Georgia, and the global slowdown has sunk Russian oil and gas earnings. No country is an island today.
Making history is not simply about the will to do so. It's also about the way -- the resources you have to achieve your ends. Whatever wills the next American president comes to office with, he is going to find that his ways have been diminished and restricted -- until we roll up our sleeves and work our way out of this mess.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 5, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Op-Ed
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
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The New York Times
October 5, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
PALIN TALK: 10-5-08
BYLINE: By LISA BELKIN.
Lisa Belkin is a contributing writer for the magazine.
SECTION: Section MM; Column 0; Magazine Desk; THE WAY WE LIVE NOW; Pg. 11
LENGTH: 909 words
Nearly five years ago, my husband was offered a prestigious, challenging plum of a job in another country. At the time, my father was dying, and my older son, suffering from debilitating migraines, was struggling in school. Sometimes parents decide that what is tempting, even perfect, for them is just not right for their family. My husband turned down the job.
I didn't talk much about the decision at the time. I felt guilty that my husband had to give up something he would have loved in part because I couldn't handle it, and I carried a vague shame that other families could have toughed this out but that ours was too fragile. It's hard to talk about what you are not proud of. None of this fit with my view of who I thought I should be -- an unflappable, charge-ahead type, able to roll with whatever life delivered.
I've been thinking again about that choice since Sarah Palin, whose teenage daughter is pregnant and whose 5-month-old son has an as-yet-undetermined set of medical needs, decided to run for national office.
Looking back at the early response to Palin, I am struck by how many of the sentences that were written, spoken and shouted by people, began with ''I.'' As in: ''I have a special-needs baby, and I wouldn't dream of running for the hardest job in the world while he is an infant.'' Or ''I have a special-needs baby, and Palin's my hero for showing you can raise a child and work.'' Or ''I would never drag my pregnant teen through the national spotlight.'' Or ''I wouldn't judge her as a parent because her daughter is pregnant, the same way I wouldn't have wanted to be judged.''
Even more interesting was how often these views came from the mouths of women who I would have predicted would be saying something else. I saw it in my own circle of mostly working moms, women who could have embraced Palin as one of them but instead dismissed her for ''being back at work three days after giving birth, when I could barely find time to shower.''
And the paradox was highlighted by the polls. Not long before Palin was chosen by John McCain, a survey by the Pew Research Center found that Republicans were far less likely to support a female candidate who is the mother of young children than were Democrats. That was consistent with results from a year earlier, which showed that 53 percent of Republicans, compared with 38 percent of Democrats, believe it is ''bad for society'' when mothers of young children work outside the home. And yet within hours of her introduction, Sarah Palin, the antithesis of the stay-at-home mom, was being praised by home-schooling moms everywhere, as surely as Michelle Obama, who left her six-figure job to spend more time with her children, had been slammed.
This could all be dismissed as merely politics, and it certainly started out as politics, but there was a hunger and a fury in the conversation about Palin that hints at something deeper. Because what we are looking at while dissecting the parenting cred of our politicians (O.K., O.K., of our politicians who are mommies -- we pay very little attention to the parenting of men) has little to do with them, and everything to do with us.
Our talking is part of an endless dance in which we move about in order to figure out where we stand. For what else is gossip but a roundabout way to explore social norms? And what landscape is more complicated to navigate than that of modern parenthood, where we often hold many contradictory opinions at once? Want to work but also want to stay home. Hate pacifiers and use them anyway. Swear off junk food and commercial TV, except when necessary. Abhor helicopter parenting unless my child needs me.
In his choice of Palin, McCain inadvertently hit upon a truth. He assumed that appointing a woman would ''speak'' to other women, that nominating a mother would get mothers talking. It did. But while we started out talking about Palin -- while we thought we were actually talking about Palin -- it seems what we were mostly talking about was ourselves.
''As a parent I would never. . . .'' All around me, women were speaking of things their friends had never known. Of the pregnancy terminated because of a harrowing genetic test. Of the mother who took her 16-year-old to get an abortion in the days before Roe v. Wade. It is not that they hadn't told anyone, but now, like me, they felt it was important (and permissible) to tell everyone.
Their confessions, coming as part of a national conversation, felt less personal, less vulnerable, more purposeful. We have seen it before when the subject was marriage -- the Clintons and Spitzers and Edwardses come to mind -- when dissecting the life of someone very public gave license to talk about things that are deeply private. But short of Zoe Baird's nanny, this was the first chance we have had for a public dissection of the decisions around being a parent. For me it was the chance to talk about my husband's dream-job-that-never-happened. I started out with a point to make: ''As a parent I would never put ambition above the needs of my family.'' But the talking quickly became my way of facing my own choice. Should I have been more like Palin -- strap the baby on your back and forge the raging river? Was it weakness or strength that kept us from moving away? In the end, I grudgingly admired her fortitude and understood that her way was not mine. You often learn who you are by realizing who you are not.
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October 5, 2008 Sunday
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LENGTH: 1797 words
INTERNATIONAL
2 U.S. HELICOPTERS CRASH: POLAND ENDS IRAQ MISSION
Two American Black Hawk helicopters crashed in northern Baghdad, killing one Iraqi soldier and wounding two Iraqi soldiers and two American soldiers. Earlier Saturday, Poland's military mission in Iraq was ceremonially brought to a close, and the country's remaining 900 soldiers are expected to be home by the end of October. PAGE 14
LEADER REPORTEDLY SEEN
The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who is believed by South Korean and United States officials to have suffered a stroke, recently made his first public appearance in more than a month, the North's state-run news agency reported. Mr. Kim watched a soccer game held to mark the 62nd anniversary of the founding of Kim Il Sung University, the North's premier institution of higher education, the agency said. PAGE 13
15 TURKISH SOLDIERS KILLED
Fifteen Turkish soldiers were killed and at least 20 were wounded in an attack Friday night by Kurdish separatist rebels in the mountainous border area in eastern Turkey, Turkish officials said. Twenty-three Kurdish fighters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party were also killed. The attack was the most serious in a year, and the Turkish authorities will be under pressure to respond. PAGE 15
NATIONAL
FOR RIVALS, COMPETITION
Turns Into Concern
For years the gleeful competition between homegrown Wachovia and the larger Bank of America left Charlotte, N.C., a clear winner. But last week, as Wachovia, which employs 20,000 people in Charlotte, became the latest financial institution to succumb to the credit crisis, that long spirit of competition between the two banks swiftly turned to concern. PAGE 16
A GRIM RECOVERY TASK
Three weeks after Hurricane Ike hit Texas, at least 34 people from the Bolivar Peninsula, where the storm did the worst damage, are missing and some are presumed dead. Volunteers and state rescue workers have been combing miles of debris on the peninsula and in the marshes on the east side of Galveston Bay, using dogs trained to find human bodies. The bodies of two people from the Bolivar Peninsula have been recovered so far. PAGE 16
WYOMING'S FLUSH TIMES
No, things are not tough all over. Things are not tough in Wyoming, for example, where the gas industry has almost single-handedly set the state in stark contrast to the rest of the nation. While other states are laying off workers and cutting programs, Wyoming has enjoyed billions of dollars in surpluses, and field workers and those in the industries that support them have deep pockets. PAGE 27
OBITUARIES
BORIS YEFIMOV, 109
A Russian cartoonist despised by Hitler and beloved by Stalin for 70 years and 70,000 drawings wielded his talent as a keen sword to advance the goals of his country. PAGE 32
NEW YORK REPORT
IN THE LAND OF FINANCE,
An Uneasy Sensation
Darien, Conn., is said to have the nation's highest percentage of residents working in financial industries. And while there is still some sense of the old normal, ''there's the nagging fear we're like Wile E. Coyote having zoomed over the cliff, blithely walking on air as long as he manages not to look down and ponder the void below,'' Peter Applebome writes in Our Towns. PAGE 34
HELP FOR DETAINEES
An online video game created by an international human rights organization retells the story of the death of a Guinean tailor held in a New Jersey jail for overstaying his visa. It is part of an effort to get public support for efforts to strengthen oversight, due process and medical help in immigration detention. PAGE 35
SPORTS
N.F.L. DEFENSES
Get an Equalizer
Since 1994, quarterbacks in the N.F.L. have worn a speaker in their helmets allowing them to hear communication from a coach. Since then, scoring has exploded, completion percentages have increased and defenses have complained. This year, defenses get that same advantage, which one coach says ''obviously levels the playing field.'' PAGE 1
THE MAGAZINE
GREEN CAPITALISM
Comes to the Rescue
Can the venture capitalists at Kleiner Perkins reduce our dependence on oil, help stop global warming and make a lot of money at the same time? PAGE 54
A CONGRESSMAN GIVES UP
Representative Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia was a star in the Republican Party. Now, like dozens of his Republican colleagues, he's quitting Congress, fed up with his party, his president and the process. PAGE 62
DO THE RIGHT THING
Refusing to provide a friend with false documentation for a better job, and booby-trapping a Navy barracks locker to guard against theft. The Ethicist. PAGE 21
Questions for:
Edgar M. Bronfman Sr. 13
BOOK REVIEW
STARTING OUT FUNNY,
But Taking a Detour
''Deafness is comic, as blindness is tragic,'' the narrator says in David Lodge's new book ''Deaf Sentence.'' But while Lodge propels the story with ''consistently witty'' writing, Stephen Amidon says in his review, eventually ''the farce Lodge promised early on has given way to bittersweet domestic drama.'' PAGE 11
IRAQ'S GOOD NEWS
In ''Tell Me How This Ends,'' Linda Robinson argues that Gen. David Petraeus and the ''surge'' policy in Iraq have produced positive results that even Democrats would be hard-pressed to deny. James Traub calls the book ''a first-rate piece of work, probing and conscientious.'' PAGE 19
TRAVEL
IN ERITREA, RECALLING
La Dolce Vita
A bloody history of conflict and civil war left Eritrea, once the jewel in Italy's African crown, hermetically sealed to the outside world, a nation locked in a time capsule. The result is a surreal, out-of-body tourist experience, where you feel dislocated from just about everywhere else, but euphoric and inspired by what is in front of you. PAGE 3
ARTS & LEISURE
10 VOICES TOGETHER,
Taking Another Shot
When an original member uploaded a 1998 clip from Straight No Chaser, an undergraduate a cappella group from Indiana University long since graduated and disbanded, to YouTube, he did it for the members' own amusement. But after Craig Kallman, the chairman and chief executive of Atlantic Records, saw it, he approached the group with a record deal. PAGE 1
ONCE MORE TO THE WELL
American moviegoers have given the cold shoulder to films about Iraq and the war on terror (unless you count the stoner comedy ''Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay.'') But what if you gathered two of the world's biggest movie stars, one of its most celebrated directors, an Oscar-winning screenwriter and a novel? The result is ''Body of Lies,'' which opens Friday. PAGE 13
STYLES
WHEN MAN'S BEST FRIEND
Purrs Instead of Barks
The popular image associates cats (maybe lots of them) with ''cat ladies''-- and, this time of year, witches, provided the cats are black. But it seems that a growing number of men are embracing their feline side and posting photographs and videos of their little buddies on YouTube and on Web sites like menandcats.com. PAGE 2
THE ONE YOU'RE WITH
One might think that polyamory -- maintaining multiple steady relationships, with the consent of all involved -- would offer the promise of boundless sex. And maybe it does, for some. But what it definitely calls for is lots of talking: to one another, for starters, and to others, to explain how you live. PAGE 9
KEY
WHEN HOME IS A CASTLE,
And Family Comes to Stay
Sam and Perlin Dobson bought a run-down castle in the Scottish Highlands and then invited the entire Dobson clan to live there. That's when things took a disastrous turn. PAGE 76
SUNDAY BUSINESS
YOUR MAIL?
Sorry, Can't Have It
Suppose you try to log on to your Gmail account and find yourself locked out, the innocent victim of security measures that automatically suspend access if someone tries unsuccessfully to log on repeatedly to an account. You would probably want to talk to somebody about it. Well, tough. That's not an option. PAGE 4
NOT-SO-SMART MONEY
The so-called smart money seems to avoiding three big investment categories: index funds, dividend-paying companies and small caps. On paper, that seems to make perfect sense in these times. If you do a little homework, however, you will notice that some of these ideas haven't panned out. At least not yet. Fundamentally, by Paul J. Lim. PAGE 6
AUTOMOBILES
FUEL-EFFICIENT BIKES,
Without That Dull Feel
Commuters looking for a two-wheel ride for fuel economy have a variety of options that don't have to be dull, including the Vespa GTS 250. Its advertisements say it's the fastest Vespa ever, it gets about 60 miles to a gallon of gas and people turn their heads and smile when you whoosh by. It looks and feels cool. PAGE 1 (Page 16 in Sunday Business in some copies)
Week in Review
TRYING TO SURVIVE
The Comic Onslaught
These days, politicians of any note can pretty much count on drawing some degree of ridicule from the Lenos, Lettermans and Stewarts of the world -- as Sarah Palin is no doubt learning. The trick is not to be defined by the comic observations. (Did Dan Quayle ever fully recover?) PAGE 3
CARRYING THE G.O.P. BRAND
John McCain and his running mate are quick to call the senator a maverick. One person not happy about it is Terrellita Maverick, 82, a San Antonio native who knows a little something about what the term was intended to mean. PAGE 2
Editorial
IN THE ECONOMY
After the Senate approved the $700 billion bank bailout, the majority leader, Harry Reid, tried to persuade his colleagues to extend unemployment benefits for 800,000 jobless Americans. The measure failed. Benefits start expiring this week. So much for Main Street. WEEK IN REVIEW, PAGE 8
Op-Ed
FRANK RICH
It's an Obama-Palin race about ''the future,'' and John McCain is the only person who doesn't seem to know it. WEEK IN REVIEW, PAGE 9
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Politics and economics are always inextricably intertwined. Americans can expect a big surprise after the next president steps into the Oval Office and spells out the ramifications of being a debtor nation. WEEK IN REVIEW, PAGE 9
NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
A recent survey has suggested that Barack Obama's support would be about six percentage points higher if he were white. But this is not because of dyed-in-the-wool racists. On the contrary, the evidence is that Senator Obama is suffering from what scholars have dubbed ''racism without racists.'' WEEK IN REVIEW, PAGE 10
PUBLIC EDITOR
The Times reported last month that John McCain's campaign manager was paid nearly $2 million over five years by an advocacy group set up by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to avoid stricter government regulation. In response, McCain's chief strategist said that The Times is ''completely, totally, 150 percent in the tank'' for Barack Obama. The Public Editor looks at the record. WEEK IN REVIEW, PAGE 9
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October 5, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
The Counterinsurgent
BYLINE: By JAMES TRAUB.
James Traub, a contributing writer for The Times Magazine, is the author of ''The Freedom Agenda: Why America Must Spread Democracy (Just Not the Way George Bush Did).''
SECTION: Section BR; Column 0; Book Review Desk; Pg. 19
LENGTH: 1305 words
TELL ME HOW THIS ENDS
General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq
By Linda Robinson
Illustrated. 411 pp. PublicAffairs. $27.95
Gen. David Petraeus says that he has no desire to meddle in politics, but he may have more to do with the outcome of the presidential election than any other nonpolitician. As commanding officer in Iraq throughout 2007 and much of this year, Petraeus has served as the chief architect and champion of the ''surge'' policy there. (He has now moved on to become commander of the American military's Central Command.) As the number of both American and Iraqi deaths has plunged, and as the prospects for real political change have improved, it has become increasingly difficult for Barack Obama to argue that the surge, which he opposed and John McCain passionately supported, has been a failure. Obama may have to hope that after five years of mayhem and empty promises, the American people are past caring.
Linda Robinson's ''Tell Me How This Ends'' is the first book about this new Iraq. It's a first-rate piece of work, probing and conscientious, though reading a good-news book about one of America's all-time bad-news stories can take some getting used to. The Iraq calamity has been a colossal boon to journalists, and the scenes that Robinson's predecessors have etched into readers' minds combine equal elements of tragedy and farce. The hopelessly unprepared Jay Garner, the first head of civilian reconstruction, cheerfully informing a group of anxious sheiks that they're on their own -- that's the Iraq we know. Robinson forces us to look again.
''Tell Me How This Ends'' is scarcely a bouquet to the administration. Robinson, author in residence at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, describes President Bush as blindly, and ruinously, attached to Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's slow-moving leader. She does give Bush credit for supporting the few military thinkers who in late 2006, in the face of opposition from the State Department and the civilian Pentagon, argued that 30,000 additional troops could make a decisive difference. But this is a book about military strategy and tactics; and the president and his entourage do not linger long.
Indeed, you cannot help being struck by the radical difference between Bush and his world, and Petraeus and his. The 55-year-old general is a superachiever who took on all the toughest training assignments and came away with the medals, a perfectionist who demands as much from others as from himself and a deeply reflective figure -- he has a Ph.D. in international relations from Princeton -- who continually adapts to the lessons of experience. Petraeus puts no special store by his gut intuitions; in Iraq, he surrounded himself with junior officers as analytical, and as driven, as he is. Robinson singles out as his greatest gift not leadership but ''intellectual rigor,'' which compelled him ''to mount a sustained effort to understand the problem.''
The problem, which had thoroughly eluded Bush and his chief aides, as well as prior commanding officers up to and including Gen. George Casey, Petraeus's immediate predecessor, was that no number of American troops would make a lasting difference unless they could affect the Iraqis' own political calculations. While serving as a commanding officer at Fort Leavenworth in 2006, Petraeus had brought together leading civilian and military thinkers to produce a new version of the Army's counterinsurgency manual. The document's central theme was political rather than military: A counterinsurgency can succeed only if it makes the government legitimate in the eyes of its citizens. This requires economic aid, governance reform, improvement in basic services and the like. And it requires an act of understanding, even empathy: ''Knowing why an insurgent movement has gained support,'' the manual states, ''is essential in designing a counterinsurgency campaign.''
Petraeus proceeded to implement his strategy with relentless focus (and those 30,000 extra troops). A correct strategy forcefully executed will take you a long way -- but not all the way. As we know now, Petraeus's arrival in Iraq coincided with the fateful decision of Sunni tribal sheiks to stand up to the extremists of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, who had worn out their welcome by, for example, throwing acid in the faces of women deemed insufficiently veiled. Thanks to the ''Anbar Awakening,'' as it was called, 100,000 Sunni men joined the fight against extremism. The fallback position among Democrats, which Joe Biden articulated last month on ''Meet The Press,'' is that it wasn't the surge that worked, but the Awakening.
Robinson makes it clear that this simply isn't so. She describes in exacting detail the tactics used by field officers in some of the most terrifying battlegrounds of Iraq. When the First Battalion, Fifth Cavalry Regiment of the First Cavalry Division was assigned in late 2006 to Ameriya, in western Baghdad, the commander, Lt. Col. Dale Kuehl, moved his headquarters out of the base camp and into a local police station. He and his staff officers had read up on ''battalion-led counterinsurgency,'' and were eager to put its precepts into effect. Kuehl began building contacts with local sheiks, and spreading money around by paying for trash pickup and road repair. Then he began ''clearing'' operations against insurgents. The cost was high: 14 deaths in May alone.
Robinson lingers on the heroic self-discipline of officers who denied their men the catharsis of revenge, knowing that they were fighting for the sympathies of civilians. And finally, that discipline paid off. In late May, a local sheik called Kuehl to say that his tribesmen would be going after an Al Qaeda cell. When the sheik called back in a panic to ask for help, Kuehl joined the fight. His men weren't sure which Iraqis to shoot at, but the battle went well, and later Kuehl reached an understanding with the commander of the tribal force: he promised to pay the Sunnis, many of them former insurgents, if they submitted to fingerprinting and agreed to work with the Iraqi Army. When Petraeus learned of the deal, his only advice was, ''Do not let our Army stop you,'' and ''Do not let the Iraqi government stop you.''
Counterinsurgency theory holds that military action can only be a precondition for political success. And Robinson readily concedes that President Maliki and other Iraqi national leaders have so far refused to pursue compromise. Indeed, journalists and policy analysts have been reporting that Maliki has reneged on promises to induct Awakening members into the Iraqi Army and police, threatening a return to the Hobbesian violence of 2006. Robinson holds out hope that coming elections will produce a more legitimate government. She supports Petraeus's preference for a gradual draw-down of forces as the Iraqi Army assumes control of ground-level operations. And she argues that a swifter withdrawal would jeopardize the fragile gains of the last year.
Petraeus has come in for a great deal of abuse from opponents of the war, most notoriously when he testified in September 2007 that the surge was working, and Moveon.org took out a full-page ad in The New York Times whose headline read, ''General Petraeus or General Betray Us?''At the time, the military top brass, worried about stretching the Army to the breaking point, continued to oppose the surge; Democratic congressmen, progressive organizations and many pundits mocked Petraeus as a Bush administration shill. But Petraeus was right; and Moveon's question sounds almost repellent in retrospect. Indeed, Robinson leaves the reader feeling that, however the war turns out, our country owes David Petraeus a debt of gratitude.
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The New York Times
October 5, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Pitbull Palin Mauls McCain
BYLINE: By FRANK RICH
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 9
LENGTH: 1602 words
SARAH PALIN'S post-Couric/Fey comeback at last week's vice presidential debate was a turning point in the campaign. But if she ''won,'' as her indulgent partisans and press claque would have it, the loser was not Joe Biden. It was her running mate. With a month to go, the 2008 election is now an Obama-Palin race -- about ''the future,'' as Palin kept saying Thursday night -- and the only person who doesn't seem to know it is Mr. Past, poor old John McCain.
To understand the meaning of Palin's ''victory,'' it must be seen in the context of two ominous developments that directly preceded it. Just hours before the debate began, the McCain campaign pulled out of Michigan. That state is ground zero for the collapsed Main Street economy and for so-called Reagan Democrats, those white working-class voters who keep being told by the right that Barack Obama is a Muslim who hung with bomb-throwing radicals during his childhood in the late 1960s.
McCain surrendered Michigan despite having outspent his opponent on television advertising and despite Obama's twin local handicaps, an unpopular Democratic governor and a felonious, now former, black Democratic Detroit mayor. If McCain can't make it there, can he make it anywhere in the Rust Belt?
Not without an economic message. McCain's most persistent attempt, his self-righteous crusade against earmarks, collapsed with his poll numbers. Next to a $700 billion bailout package, his incessant promise to eliminate all Washington pork -- by comparison, a puny grand total of $16.5 billion in the 2008 federal budget -- doesn't bring home the bacon. Nor can McCain reconcile his I-will-veto-government-waste mantra with his support, however tardy, of the bailout bill. That bill's $150 billion in fresh pork includes a boondoggle inserted by the Congressman Don Young, an Alaskan Republican no less.
The second bit of predebate news, percolating under the radar, involved the still-unanswered questions about McCain's health. Back in May, you will recall, the McCain campaign allowed a select group of 20 reporters to spend a mere three hours examining (but not photocopying) 1,173 pages of the candidate's health records on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. Conspicuously uninvited was Lawrence Altman, a doctor who covers medicine for The New York Times. Altman instead canvassed melanoma experts to evaluate the sketchy data that did emerge. They found the information too ''unclear'' to determine McCain's cancer prognosis.
There was, however, at least one doctor-journalist among those 20 reporters in May, the CNN correspondent Sanjay Gupta. At the time, Gupta told Katie Couric on CBS that the medical records were ''pretty comprehensive'' and wrote on his CNN blog that he was ''pretty convinced there was no 'smoking gun' about the senator's health.'' (Physical health, that is; Gupta wrote there was hardly any information on McCain's mental health.)
That was then. Now McCain is looking increasingly shaky, whether he's repeating his ''Miss Congeniality'' joke twice in the same debate or speaking from notecards even when reciting a line for (literally) the 17th time (''The fundamentals of our economy are strong'') or repeatedly confusing proper nouns that begin with S (Sunni, Shia, Sudan, Somalia, Spain). McCain's ''dismaying temperament,'' as George Will labeled it, only thickens the concerns. His kamikaze mission into Washington during the bailout crisis seemed crazed. His seething, hostile debate countenance -- a replay of Al Gore's sarcastic sighing in 2000 -- didn't make the deferential Obama look weak (as many Democrats feared) but elevated him into looking like the sole presidential grown-up.
Though CNN and MSNBC wouldn't run a political ad with doctors questioning McCain's medical status, Gupta revisited the issue in an interview published last Tuesday by The Huffington Post. While maintaining a pretty upbeat take on the candidate's health, the doctor-journalist told the reporter Sam Stein that he couldn't vouch ''by any means'' for the completeness of the records the campaign showed him four months ago. ''The pages weren't numbered,'' Gupta said, ''so I had no way of knowing what was missing.'' At least in Watergate we knew that the gap on Rose Mary Woods's tape ran 18 and a half minutes.
It's against this backdrop that Palin's public pronouncements, culminating with her debate performance, have been so striking. The standard take has it that she's either speaking utter ignorant gibberish (as to Couric) or reciting highly polished, campaign-written sound bites that she's memorized (as at the convention and the debate). But there's a steady unnerving undertone to Palin's utterances, a consistent message of hubristic self-confidence and hyper-ambition. She wants to be president, she thinks she can be president, she thinks she will be president. And perhaps soon. She often sounds like someone who sees herself as half-a-heartbeat away from the presidency. Or who is seen that way by her own camp, the hard-right G.O.P. base that never liked McCain anyway and views him as, at best, a White House place holder.
This was first apparent when Palin extolled a ''small town'' vice president as a hero in her convention speech -- and cited not one of the many Republican vice presidents who fit that bill but, bizarrely, Harry Truman, a Democrat who succeeded a president who died in office. A few weeks later came Charlie Gibson's question about whether she thought she was ''experienced enough'' and ''ready'' when McCain invited her to join his ticket. Palin replied that she didn't ''hesitate'' and didn't ''even blink'' -- a response that seemed jarring for its lack of any human modesty, even false modesty.
In the last of her Couric interview installments on Thursday, Palin was asked which vice president had most impressed her, and after paying tribute to Geraldine Ferraro, she chose ''George Bush Sr.'' Her criterion: she most admires vice presidents ''who have gone on to the presidency.'' Hours later, at the debate, she offered a discordant contrast to Biden when asked by Gwen Ifill how they would each govern ''if the worst happened'' and the president died in office. After Biden spoke of somber continuity, Palin was weirdly flip and chipper, eager to say that as a ''maverick'' she'd go her own way.
But the debate's most telling passage arrived when Biden welled up in recounting his days as a single father after his first wife and one of his children were killed in a car crash. Palin's perky response -- she immediately started selling McCain as a ''consummate maverick'' again -- was as emotionally disconnected as Michael Dukakis's notoriously cerebral answer to the hypothetical 1988 debate question about his wife being ''raped and murdered.'' If, as some feel, Obama is cool, Palin is ice cold. She didn't even acknowledge Biden's devastating personal history.
After the debate, Republicans who had been bailing on Palin rushed back to the fold. They know her relentless ambition is the only hope for saving a ticket headed by a warrior who is out of juice and out of ideas. So what if she is preposterously unprepared to run the country in the midst of its greatest economic crisis in 70 years? She looks and sounds like a winner.
You can understand why they believe that. She has more testosterone than anyone else at the top of her party. McCain and his surrogates are forever blaming their travails on others, wailing about supposed sexist and journalistic biases around the clock. McCain even canceled an interview with Larry King, for heaven's sake, in a fit of pique at a CNN anchor, Campbell Brown.
We are not a nation of whiners, as Phil Gramm would have it, but the G.O.P. is now the party of whiners. That rebranding became official when Republican House leaders moaned that a routine partisan speech by Nancy Pelosi had turned their members against the bailout bill. As the stock market fell nearly 778 points, Barney Frank taunted his G.O.P. peers with pitch-perfect mockery: ''Somebody hurt my feelings, so I will punish the country!''
Talk about the world coming full circle. This is the same Democrat who had been slurred as ''Barney Fag'' in the mid-1990s by Dick Armey, a House leader of the government-bashing Gingrich revolution that helped lower us into this debacle. Now Frank was ridiculing the House G.O.P. as a bunch of sulking teenage girls. His wisecrack stung -- and stuck.
Palin is an antidote to the whiny Republican image that Frank nailed. Alaska's self-styled embodiment of Joe Sixpack is not a sulker, but a pistol-packing fighter. That's why she draws the crowds and (as she puts it) ''energy'' that otherwise elude the angry McCain. But she is still the candidate for vice president, not president. Americans do not vote for vice president.
So how can a desperate G.O.P. save itself? As McCain continues to fade into incoherence and irrelevance, the last hope is that he'll come up with some new game-changing stunt to match his initial pick of Palin or his ill-fated campaign ''suspension.'' Until Thursday night, more than a few Republicans were fantasizing that his final Hail Mary pass would be to ditch Palin so she can ''spend more time'' with her ever-growing family. But the debate reminded Republicans once again that it's Palin, not McCain, who is their last hope for victory.
You have to wonder how long it will be before they plead with him to think of his health, get out of the way and pull the ultimate stunt of flipping the ticket. Palin, we can be certain, wouldn't even blink.
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The Washington Post
October 5, 2008 Sunday
Met 2 Edition
Politics at the Five-and-Dime;
Where Pennies Matter, Change Is a Powerful Idea
BYLINE: Anne Hull; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 2591 words
DATELINE: FARMINGTON HILLS, Mich.
Pam Fleck has just finished vacuuming and scrubbing her mobile home into potpourri perfection when her phone rings and it's her sister, Sherry. Sherry lives over in Brighton. She drives a school bus, likes to hunt and votes Republican.
"Hi," says Fleck, an assistant manager at a Dollar General store. Her mind is on the 18-wheel delivery truck she'll have to unload at work later that night. Lifting cases of bleach take its toll at the age of 55.
Sherry is on the phone talking politics, trying one more time to talk sense into her sister. Anyone who votes for Barack Obama will not be welcome in her house -- a joke, but Fleck knows exactly where her younger sister stands. She takes a sip of coffee.
"Yeah, I'm still listening," she says.
If Obama gets in, Sherry says, he will take away everyone's guns and control what roads they can and cannot drive on.
Fleck interrupts. "We are not going to be able to afford any guns to shoot or cars to drive on the roads if things don't change, Sherry, honest to God."
With no pension and sore legs from seven-hour shifts at Dollar General, Fleck is what political pollsters classify as "working-class," "blue-collar" or a "disaffected Democrat." She is white, skipped college for motherhood and considers herself a Democrat but did not vote in the last two presidential elections because both Al Gore and John Kerry left her cold.
Fleck is exactly the kind of voter that Obama needs to win in November but has struggled to persuade. She's ready to roll the dice.
To understand why -- and to understand Obama's widening lead over McCain in a crucial state -- is to see an American worker pushed to desperation. A Wall Street bailout for $700 billion dollars? After six years at Dollar General, Fleck earns $10.35 and hour and receives an annual raise of 25 cents. She gave up Fantastic Sams and now cuts her hair over the sink in the bathroom.
Michigan is in its eighth year of a ransacked economy that has lost 322,000 manufacturing jobs in this time. The state's unemployment rate is 8.9 percent, the highest in the nation. The Pew Charitable Trust is predicting that one of every 36 homes in Michigan will fall under foreclosure by next year. The evidence is everywhere. Fleck's son tells her that poachers are stripping metal and copper from abandoned houses. The family living next to her sister lost their home, leaving behind a deep freezer full of meat that began to rot and gas the neighborhood.
Fleck grabs her pack of Misty cigarettes and goes out to sit in the warm sun of a late-breaking autumn. "You don't have to have a college degree to see what's going on," she says.
The situation calls for a leap of faith. "Maybe he'll really make a go of it," she says of Obama. "Maybe he'll say, 'Look past me and see what I do.' " Sometimes Fleck wavers, and this fragile commitment suggests the candidate's path to the White House is far from certain. "They keep saying we need a change," she says. "Well, this is definitely going to be a change. He's young and he's black."
But on most days she's sure. "I'm 55 years old. I don't like the way the world is going."
For every Obama believer swept up in a sea of "Change" bumper stickers, there are others who are tentative, whose slow gravitation is nothing short of a radical act.
* * *
The conversion is not shared across her family.
There's Sherry. "She said she doesn't like the way Obama was raised and the whole business with his church," Fleck says. "She was talking about his religion. Something about his stepbrother, who lives wherever. This is stuff that I didn't know about."
And there's the man she has been dating for the last few years, who works on prototype cars for Ford. "He's not real happy about Obama being black," Fleck says. "I said to him, 'Close your eyes and what do you see?' " But it is an impossible sell.
Until a week ago, Oakland County in suburban Detroit, where Fleck lives, was called the battleground of the battleground for the 2008 election: a must-win county in a must-win state. A mix of astonishing affluence, blue-collar workers, new immigrants from India and Japan, townships with 20 percent Jewish populations and a growing African American middle class, Oakland is known for its independent and swing voters. For that reason, McCain based his Great Lakes Regional Headquarters (Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana) in Oakland, and Obama positioned seven of his 49 state offices here.
Then came the economic apocalypse, and almost overnight the race no longer seemed close. Last week's polls showed Obama pulling ahead by nine points; McCain decided to suspend campaign operations in Michigan to focus efforts elsewhere. If Michigan is any kind of barometer for Ohio and Pennsylvania -- both crucial states in the struggling Rust Belt and replete with blue-collar workers and union retirees -- the transcendent issue of the economy could nudge tentative Democrats toward Obama. But not all.
Clayton Taylor is a 26-year-old Democrat who lives in Oakland County's working-class section of Troy. He supports abortion rights and loved Hillary Clinton but will not vote for Obama. He worries about the candidate's lack of experience and that he'll promote welfare. "He's gonna give too much away," said Thomas, outside fixing his porch. "There are a lot of people who will sit back and take it. He tries to be too 'We the People,' like he's an average Joe. He's hiding some beliefs."
From bowling alleys to bars, the economy dominates all corners of public discussion. Not the war, though Michigan has suffered 165 deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not abortion, not same-sex marriage, not national security, not terrorism. The economy.
A sign in front of a dental clinic advertises "Free Gas Card with Teeth Cleaning or X-Ray." A radio ad urges listeners to take advantage of the opportunity-rich foreclosure market -- "Order your 'Flip and Grow Rich' CD now!" Obama lands a populist punch with a TV ad showing McCain pledging his loyalty to American cars before an ominous voice-over comes on saying that the Republican senator owns 13 vehicles, including three foreign-made cars. The anxiety reaches the rolling emerald lawns up in Birmingham, where layoffs and job losses from the auto industry have started hitting executives and engineers.
But in Birmingham, there is still osso buco, and cases of new fall pinots are stocked at Papa Joe's Gourmet Market. At the Dollar General store where Fleck works, the anxiety is on naked display.
"I watch the elderly people come in and ask how much something is," Fleck says. "You see them counting their money. Here they are putting back a can of tuna fish or some cookies, and you know that's their treat. And I'll say, 'Don't worry about it, I got it.' I'm not supposed to do that. But in the back of my mind I'm thinking: Is that tuna fish what they are going to eat for the day or for the week?"
From her vantage point of Dollar General, amid the Apple Jacks and tube socks and scratchy Made in China toddler suits and cans of cling peaches and bottles of Motrin (kept up front to prevent theft), she sees it all.
"I'm not gonna lie about it," she says. "Some people come in with their food stamp cards, dressed to the hilt and gold chains hanging off them and their hair and nails done. I'm thinking: What's wrong with this picture?"
She believes immigrants should learn English. "I have no problem with someone coming to America, but don't you want to be 100 percent of it?"
Not only does she drive strictly American, she drives a Ford Taurus because a large number of its parts are manufactured in the United States.
She grudgingly supports abortion rights but thinks that "women's lib and all of these working mothers" are short-changing their children.
Fleck lives in the Flamingo Court trailer park in Farmington Hills at the south end of Oakland County. Her mobile home is spacious, decorated with curtain valances and matching towel sets and a candy dish. Before Flamingo Court, Fleck was married for 31 years. Three kids. Her husband -- her junior high school sweetheart -- worked as a millwright (an industrial maintenance mechanic) with the Big Three automakers and brought home between $1,000 and $3,000 a week with his union card.
Good money and a decent life were built on sweat, then the marriage ended. A photo album on Fleck's coffee table shows pictures from the birth of her recent grandchild, and everyone is crowded into the hospital room -- Fleck, her ex, their three grown kids, spouses and grandkids. Some things have held.
Others have not. Both of her sons are millwrights, but the work has gone overseas. They wait for the union hall to call with jobs, and they sometimes draw unemployment. Last month, Fleck's ex-husband lost his house to foreclosure.
Fleck treats her own job as if she were a mid-level executive. Her phone rings on her day off with calls from work. She tosses and turns over tasks left undone. Her conscientious habits have not gone unnoticed.
Two years ago, on her fourth year at Dollar General, the store manager came to her with a proposal.
"What would it take for you to be an assistant manager?" he asked.
"I said, '$9.25 an hour,' " Fleck says. "He said, 'We can't do that, but we can do $9 an hour.' "
She takes home $300 a week. Dollar General provides her health plan, and she pays in $42 a week for it. She drives her Taurus four miles to work, but because of gas prices, no more aimless drives. To help with expenses, she rents out a spare bedroom of her mobile home.
So when a candidate comes along and uses the word "change," she is receptive, even if his name is Barack Hussein Obama. "A part of me thinks that, and I hate to say this, that because he is black -- or partly black -- and then struggling to get to higher places in life, maybe he will say, 'I know what you are going through,' " Fleck says.
* * *
Forty-one days before the election, she wakes up and puts on make-up, has a cup of coffee and then vacuums. On the drive to work, she passes an old ranch house with a "Veterans for McCain" sign in the yard. Moving through the more upscale section of Southfield, she notices an Obama sign in front of a gated mansion and wonders who lives there. The Dollar General sits in the corner of a concrete plaza in Southfield. Fleck works the register, restocks and rides herd over the part-time employees who work the aisles of discount life. The customers are mostly working-class and African American.
Fleck was at the register recently when two female customers picked up a copy of the Globe tabloid with the headline "SARAH PALIN SEX SCANDAL: the lies, the baby secret, the raunchy photos." One of the women said to the other that if a black candidate's 17-year-old daughter were pregnant, America wouldn't be so charitable. Fleck glared at the customers but kept ringing them up. "If I said something like that in front of a black person, do you think I'd get away with it?" she later asked. If she was willing to put race aside, why couldn't they?
There is a donation jar at the register for a literacy fund and Fleck notices how even the poorest customers put a few coins in. She worries about them. "Prices have gone up more in the last six months than the entire six years I've worked there, " she says. "I'm so glad my kids are grown." She takes her lunch hour in her car. Walking out to the scrappy parking lot, she sits in her Taurus with a bag of chips and uses the time to think. "Once in a great while I'll go to Subway," she says.
On the night a truck brings a delivery, she arrives at 8 and doesn't stop moving till past midnight. "No matter if you're male or female, 20 or 60, it has to get done," she says.
The next morning, she's at home when her store manager calls. The manager suspects an employee stole a bottle of green tea while unloading the truck because she found the empty bottle. The conversation about the missing green tea goes on for 10 minutes. Finally she hangs up and shakes her head. "As manager, she is accountable for everything," Fleck says. "I feel for her."
Recently, and somewhat tentatively, she asked her manager whom she was voting for.
"Uh-oh, I don't want to start a war here," the manager said, according to Fleck. "Who are you voting for?"
Obama, Fleck said.
So am I, the manager said.
Her drive between work and home takes her past the campaign signs again.
In the ranch house with the "Veterans for McCain" sign is Donnalee Eirschele, age 57, a former public school custodian on disability: "I'm a conservative. I don't like Obama's ideas. He's going to run our economy into the ground. Obama is more for giving money to poor people, like the ones on welfare."
At the modern split-level house with the Obama sign: Derek Forney, age 40, an account manager for a benefits company. "What Bush and his party have failed to deliver on is inclusiveness," says Forney, an evangelical Christian who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. "I'm very interested in bringing people together. I have a young daughter. I don't want her to grow up in a divided country."
* * *
On her day off, Fleck visits her month-old granddaughter. "Hello!" she says, dropping her purse as she walks through the door of her daughter's house and rushes for the baby girl named Ireland.
"Here you go, Mom," says Nicole Patterson, 29, handing over the infant. Fleck comes to life: smiling and cooing and miles away from the missing bottle of green tea. Her 31-year-old son, Kelly, is also here. The union called him with a three-day job starting the next day. "All jobs are good," he says. "They just don't last long."
The big dilemma is that Nicole's company just told her that she can't come back part-time after the baby -- it has to be full-time. "The way Michigan is now, my boss is leaning on me," Nicole says. Her husband's job as an auto-body technician at Chrysler has slowed to nothing. Kelly gives his familiar refrain: "Stop outsourcing jobs." He won't vote in November, disillusioned by the vote-count fiasco in Florida in 2000.
Nicole, a Democrat, is leaning toward Obama. "When he speaks, it's almost inspirational and promising."
Kelly laughs. "As long as he doesn't pull some ghetto-fabulous [expletive], like they did in Detroit," he says, referring to Kwame Kilpatrick, the former Detroit mayor brought down by scandal this year.
Nicole tells her mother that Aunt Sherry has been working on her, too. "Aunt Sherry said, 'You gotta drop with the Democrat and Republican stuff.' And I said, 'You are gonna have to drop the race and Muslim thing.' "
"She is very passionate," Fleck says of her sister. "She has strong feelings. You hear so many things, it's hard to believe what's true."
Nicole lifts up Ireland and kisses her. "I guess my big downfall is that I'm overly optimistic," she says. "I have to be. Look what's in front of me. If you don't have hope that things will get better, what's the point? God, if you don't have hope, you don't have nothin'."
The day is warm and they go outside to sit in the back yard. A deer statue stands in the grass. A grill. A garage full of tools. Fleck tells her kids that Dollar General wants her to move to another store. Nicole wishes her mother could stay home and watch the baby, but Fleck explains that she can't go without health insurance.
"I hate her job," she says. "They take advantage of her."
Fleck's voice is soft. "I put my heart and soul into it."
She drives home, past campaign signs and foreclosure signs. "One way or another, something is going to work out for us," she says.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: October 5, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Michael Williamson -- The Washington Post; Pam Fleck, assistant manager of a Dollar General store in Southfield, Mich., is leaning toward Barack Obama as the working-class candidate.
IMAGE; Photos By Michael Williamson -- The Washington Post
IMAGE; Clayton Taylor of Troy says he is a Hillary Clinton fan who doesn't trust Barack Obama and will vote for John McCain.
IMAGE; Andre Ventura is a conservative Republican who wears his distaste for Obama on his sleeve, and displays it in his yard.
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296 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
October 5, 2008 Sunday
Met 1 Edition
Obama, McCain Saturating Va. With TV Ads
BYLINE: Tim Craig; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: METRO; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1096 words
DATELINE: RICHMOND
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are spending nearly $300,000 a day on local television advertising in Virginia, according to an independent analyst, with Obama far outspending McCain as they gear up for the final month of the presidential campaign.
With Democrats and Republicans agreeing that the contest is essentially tied in Virginia, the campaign for the commonwealth's 13 electoral votes is accelerating. The rivals also are blanketing the state with direct mail and other ads.
Obama, a senator from Illinois, has targeted Virginia relentlessly, believing it will be almost impossible for McCain, a senator from Arizona, to win the White House on Nov. 4 if he loses the historically conservative state.
Obama's strategy appears to be paying off, officials in both parties say. On Wednesday, McCain campaign officials announced that they are diverting more resources to Virginia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964.
"We feel good, and we are doubling the size of the field staff and offices in Virginia . . . and that is a reflection of the energy and support we have seen in Virginia," said Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director.
But the closeness of the race in a state President Bush won by 262,000 votes four years ago alarms some Virginia Republicans, who concede that Obama is running a strong campaign.
Several recent polls show varying leads, ranging from a 9-percentage-point Obama advantage to a 3-point McCain edge.
"I think the seesaw is going to continue, and I just hope we are on top of the seesaw when the election rolls around," said Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick (Prince William), chairman of the Virginia Republican Party.
Obama, Democrats say, has built one of the most aggressive campaigns in modern Virginia history and plans to use his organization on Election Day to try to spark a record turnout.
Yesterday, with a Navy ship as a backdrop, Obama drew thousands to a rally in Newport News on the banks of the James River, his second large event in Virginia in a week. His running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), was scheduled to make appearances today in Roanoke and Henrico County in suburban Richmond but canceled because of a serious illness in his family.
There are now about 60 Democratic offices open across the state, including Senate candidate Mark R. Warner's. They are staffed by thousands of volunteers and about 200 paid workers.
"This is absolutely the largest, most comprehensive, most aggressive presidential campaign I have ever seen in Virginia," Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee said.
Obama's efforts in Virginia are apparent on the airwaves.
From mid-June until last week, Obama spent about $9 million on TV ads in Virginia, compared with McCain's $5 million.
Obama is now spending about $250,000 a day on local network TV in Virginia, compared with McCain's $30,000, according to Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad buys.
The TV advertising imbalance is being partially offset by the Republican National Committee, which began a $33,000-a-day media buy in areas of Virginia outside the Washington market, Tracey said.
McCain spent heavily on local network TV in Northern Virginia earlier in the year, but he has pulled advertising from those stations and is bolstering his presence in Hampton Roads.
"Obviously, I think they had to make a resource decision," Tracey said. "He has to make sure he has resources to match Obama at the end of the campaign. . . . But it's a gamble, because Northern Virginia is where races are won and lost."
Trey Walker, McCain's mid-Atlantic regional director, said the decision was strategic and not about resources. The campaign has shifted its Northern Virginia ads to local cable stations to help target specific voter blocs. McCain and Obama also are on the air on national network TV.
"We are at parity, saturation-wise in Northern Virginia, with the Obama campaign," Walker said. "We are using a tactic we need to turn out voters on Election Day. Clearly, when you are doing cable television buys, you can target certain demographics you are unable to do on local" television.
McCain's campaign also is opening a dozen new offices and will be increasing its paid staff in the state to 50, DuHaime said.
Although Obama and Biden have appeared jointly or separately in the state almost a dozen times since mid-summer, McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, have appeared only once, at a rally last month in Fairfax City.
McCain is instead relying on surrogates and local party committees to drum up enthusiasm for his campaign. Joe McCain, the candidate's brother, headlined a "Veterans for McCain" rally yesterday in Loudoun County.
Obama surrogates also are blanketing the state.
Democrats are emboldened by several recent polls. Obama has opened up a 20-point lead in Northern Virginia, according to polls by Washington Post-ABC News, CNN/TIME and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.
In the 2005 race for governor and the 2006 Senate campaign, Democrats Timothy M. Kaine and James Webb, respectively, were propelled to victory after they racked up 20-point margins in Northern Virginia.
Some party officials say Obama is starting to make inroads in rural parts of the state.
"For years, it has been socially and culturally unacceptable for white working-class males to vote for a Democrat, and I am hearing a lot of them say, 'I'm voting for Obama,' and that shows me there is some movement," said Democratic strategist Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, who specializes in targeting rural voters.
But Dick Leggitt, a GOP strategist and senior adviser to Republican Senate candidate James S. Gilmore III, said the McCain campaign is working hard to turn out the party base through phone calls, mailings and targeted radio spots. The historical surge for GOP candidates from rural areas and military communities in Hampton Roads will be enough to pull out a victory, he said.
Still, some Virginia Republicans say McCain and Palin need to start campaigning in the state.
"I know McCain sleeps here a lot," said Frederick, referring to McCain's condominium in Arlington County. "We need him to come back and campaign here, because the Republican grass roots are hungry to have him."
Other Virginia Republicans say McCain, who is trailing in national polls, doesn't have the luxury to spend time in a state the GOP has carried for decades.
"McCain advisers feel if he isn't going to win Virginia, he probably isn't going to win the election anyway," said James E. Hyland, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Party.
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The New York Times
October 4, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Financial Papers Show Palins' Assets Top $1 Million
BYLINE: By LESLIE WAYNE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 818 words
The McCain campaign released financial documents on Friday indicating that Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska had assets over $1 million, consisting largely of an ample retirement portfolio, real estate and her husband's commercial fishing business.
Ms. Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, kept her tax rate low by putting all of her investments in tax-deferred accounts. In addition, she did not report as income the $17,000 that she received in per diem payments from the state while she remained at her home in Wasilla.
Tax returns for 2007 and 2006 show that Ms. Palin and her husband, Todd, had diverse sources of income. In addition to her salary as governor, there were capital gains from the sale of a snowmobile and income from Mr. Palin's winnings in the annual Iron Dog snow-machine race.
One of the most disputed aspects of Ms. Palin's tax returns, which were prepared by H&R Block, is the tax treatment of the per diem payments. The McCain campaign has said that these payments are not taxable income, a position that has been questioned by tax experts.
''We have letters from tax experts on this,'' said a spokesman for the McCain campaign, Brian Jones. ''The State of Alaska conferred with the Internal Revenue Service, and this is the decision that they came to.''
The tax treatment of the payments has drawn considerable interest from tax lawyers, who have written on this subject on various blogs, challenging the campaign's interpretation of tax law.
''What jumps out to me in these tax returns,'' said Robert S. McIntyre, director of Citizens for Tax Justice, a labor-backed group, ''is that the $17,000 in per diems is not there and it should have been.''
The McCain campaign has been under pressure to release Ms. Palin's tax returns after the Obama campaign released 10 years of returns for Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. In addition, Mr. Biden has been required routinely to file financial disclosure statements with the federal government because he is a sitting senator.
The documents issued Friday are the first glimpse into Ms. Palin's personal finances and consisted of the federal public financial disclosure report and two years of tax returns.
The Palins reported taxable income in 2007 of $166,080, consisting largely of Ms. Palin's salary as governor. The couple paid $24,738 in taxes on this income, at a tax rate of around 15 percent. But in 2006, the couple reported taxable income of $127,869, which consisted mainly of Mr. Palin's income from BP Exploration Alaska and an income of less than $5,000 for Ms. Palin from the State of Alaska before she was elected governor.
That year, the couple paid $11,944 in taxes, a tax rate of just under 10 percent.
Yet for a couple with modest incomes, the Palins have amassed a sizable portfolio that consists mainly of retirement investments and real estate.
The family home in Wasilla, which has been valued for tax purposes at $550,000, was listed on the federal financial disclosure form, which requires that all values be given in ranges, between $500,000 and $1 million.
The remaining real estate, valued at between $150,000 and $365,000, consisted of a fishing leasehold on the Nushagak River and partial interest in two other parcels of land.
The Palins kept their taxes low by putting all their investable assets into tax-deferred accounts, including 401(k)'s, I.R.A.'s and defined-contribution plans from Wasilla, the State of Alaska and BP Alaska.
The disclosure form listed the portfolio's value as from $300,000 to $850,000. The assets in these retirement accounts included a sophisticated range of investments, including mutual funds invested in Latin America, small-cap stocks, shares in Spanish, Belgian and Australian indexes and a midcap growth fund. Among the firms represented in the portfolio are Morgan Stanley, Putnam, T. Rowe Price and Alliance Bernstein, all well-known financial institutions.
Mr. Palin's commercial fishing business enabled the couple to deduct a small portion of their home's expenses, and his snowmachine racing business was marginally profitable. In 2006, it had a taxable income of around $2,500. In 2007, when Mr. Palin had $17,000 in prize winnings, he claimed business expenses that resulted in a loss of $9,639.
The Palins reported charitable deductions of $2,500 in 2007, and $4,250 in 2006. The only charity identified in the tax returns was the Salvation Army, which received a small amount of goods from the couple.
The McCain campaign declined to identify the other charitable recipients, except to say that the money went to ''churches in the local community,'' according to Mr. Jones, the campaign spokesman. He declined to say whether the Wasilla Assembly of God, where Ms. Palin was a member until 2002 and is still identified on the church's Web site as a ''friend,'' received a donation.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 4, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Gov. Sarah Palin preparing to leave Friday for campaigning in Texas, with her children, from left, Willow, Trig and Piper. (PHOTOGRAPH BY RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
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298 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
October 4, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Obama and '60s Bomber: A Look Into Crossed Paths
BYLINE: By SCOTT SHANE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 2135 words
DATELINE: CHICAGO
At a tumultuous meeting of anti-Vietnam War militants at the Chicago Coliseum in 1969, Bill Ayers helped found the radical Weathermen, launching a campaign of bombings that would target the Pentagon and United States Capitol.
Twenty-six years later, at a lunchtime meeting about school reform in a Chicago skyscraper, Barack Obama met Mr. Ayers, by then an education professor. Their paths have crossed sporadically since then, at a coffee Mr. Ayers hosted for Mr. Obama's first run for office, on the schools project and a charitable board, and in casual encounters as Hyde Park neighbors.
Their relationship has become a touchstone for opponents of Mr. Obama, the Democratic senator, in his bid for the presidency. Video clips on YouTube, including a new advertisement that was broadcast on Friday, juxtapose Mr. Obama's face with the young Mr. Ayers or grainy shots of the bombings.
In a televised interview last spring, Senator John McCain, Mr. Obama's Republican rival, asked, ''How can you countenance someone who was engaged in bombings that could have or did kill innocent people?''
More recently, conservative critics who accuse Mr. Obama of a stealth radical agenda have asserted that he has misleadingly minimized his relationship with Mr. Ayers, whom the candidate has dismissed as ''a guy who lives in my neighborhood'' and ''somebody who worked on education issues in Chicago that I know.''
A review of records of the schools project and interviews with a dozen people who know both men, suggest that Mr. Obama, 47, has played down his contacts with Mr. Ayers, 63. But the two men do not appear to have been close. Nor has Mr. Obama ever expressed sympathy for the radical views and actions of Mr. Ayers, whom he has called ''somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8.''
Obama campaign aides said the Ayers relationship had been greatly exaggerated by opponents to smear the candidate.
''The suggestion that Ayers was a political adviser to Obama or someone who shaped his political views is patently false,'' said Ben LaBolt, a campaign spokesman. Mr. LaBolt said the men first met in 1995 through the education project, the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, and have encountered each other occasionally in public life or in the neighborhood. He said they have not spoken by phone or exchanged e-mail messages since Mr. Obama began serving in the United States Senate in January 2005 and last met more than a year ago when they bumped into each other on the street in Hyde Park.
In the stark presentation of a 30-second advertisement or a television clip, Mr. Obama's connections with a man who once bombed buildings and who is unapologetic about it may seem puzzling. But in Chicago, Mr. Ayers has largely been rehabilitated.
Federal riot and bombing conspiracy charges against him were dropped in 1974 because of illegal wiretaps and other prosecutorial misconduct, and he was welcomed back after years in hiding by his large and prominent family. His father, Thomas G. Ayers, had served as chief executive of Commonwealth Edison, the local power company.
Since earning a doctorate in education at Columbia in 1987, Mr. Ayers has been a professor of education at the University of Illinois at Chicago, the author or editor of 15 books, and an advocate of school reform.
''He's done a lot of good in this city and nationally,'' Mayor Richard M. Daley said in an interview this week, explaining that he has long consulted Mr. Ayers on school issues. Mr. Daley, whose father was Chicago's mayor during the street violence accompanying the 1968 Democratic National Convention and the so-called Days of Rage the following year, said he saw the bombings of that time in the context of a polarized and turbulent era.
''This is 2008,'' Mr. Daley said. ''People make mistakes. You judge a person by his whole life.''
That attitude is widely shared in Chicago, but it is not universal. Steve Chapman, a columnist for The Chicago Tribune, defended Mr. Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., his longtime pastor, whose black liberation theology and ''God damn America'' sermon became notorious last spring. But he denounced Mr. Obama for associating with Mr. Ayers, whom he said the University of Illinois should never have hired.
''I don't think there's a statute of limitations on terrorist bombings,'' Mr. Chapman said in an interview, speaking not of the law but of political and moral implications.
''If you're in public life, you ought to say, 'I don't want to be associated with this guy,' '' Mr. Chapman said. ''If John McCain had a long association with a guy who'd bombed abortion clinics, I don't think people would say, 'That's ancient history.' ''
Mr. Ayers and his wife, Bernardine Dohrn, a clinical associate professor at Northwestern University Law School who was also a Weather Underground founder, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
The Schools Project
The Ayers-Obama connection first came to public attention last spring, when both Senator Hilary Rodham Clinton, Mr. Obama's Democratic primary rival, and Mr. McCain brought it up. It became the subject of a television advertisement in August by the anti-Obama American Issues Project and drew new attention recently on The Wall Street Journal's op-ed page and elsewhere as the archives of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge at the University of Illinois were opened to researchers.
That project was part of a national school reform effort financed with $500 million from Walter H. Annenberg, the billionaire publisher and philanthropist and President Richard M. Nixon's ambassador to the United Kingdom. Many cities applied for the Annenberg money, and Mr. Ayers joined two other local education activists to lead a broad, citywide effort that won nearly $50 million for Chicago.
In March 1995, Mr. Obama became chairman of the six-member board that oversaw the distribution of grants in Chicago. Some bloggers have recently speculated that Mr. Ayers had engineered that post for him.
In fact, according to several people involved, Mr. Ayers played no role in Mr. Obama's appointment. Instead, it was suggested by Deborah Leff, then president of the Joyce Foundation, a Chicago-based group whose board Mr. Obama, a young lawyer, had joined the previous year. At a lunch with two other foundation heads, Patricia A. Graham of the Spencer Foundation and Adele Simmons of the MacArthur Foundation, Ms. Leff suggested that Mr. Obama would make a good board chairman, she said in an interview. Mr. Ayers was not present and had not suggested Mr. Obama, she said.
Ms. Graham said she invited Mr. Obama to dinner at an Italian restaurant in Chicago and was impressed.
''At the end of the dinner I said, 'I really want you to be chairman.' He said, 'I'll do it if you'll be vice chairman,' '' Ms. Graham recalled, and she agreed.
Archives of the Chicago Annenberg project, which funneled the money to networks of schools from 1995 to 2000, show both men attended six board meetings early in the project -- Mr. Obama as chairman, Mr. Ayers to brief members on school issues.
It was later in 1995 that Mr. Ayers and Ms. Dohrn hosted the gathering, in their town house three blocks from Mr. Obama's home, at which State Senator Alice J. Palmer, who planned to run for Congress, introduced Mr. Obama to a few Democratic friends as her chosen successor. That was one of several such neighborhood events as Mr. Obama prepared to run, said A. J. Wolf, the 84-year-old emeritus rabbi of KAM Isaiah Israel Synagogue, across the street from Mr. Obama's current house.
''If you ask my wife, we hadthe first coffee for Barack,'' Rabbi Wolf said. He said he had known Mr. Ayers for decades but added, ''Bill's mad at me because I told a reporter he's a toothless ex-radical.''
''It was kind of a nasty shot,'' Mr. Wolf said. ''But it's true. For God's sake, he's a professor.''
Other Connections
In 1997, after Mr. Obama took office, the new state senator was asked what he was reading by The Chicago Tribune. He praised a book by Mr. Ayers, ''A Kind and Just Parent: The Children of Juvenile Court,'' which Mr. Obama called ''a searing and timely account of the juvenile court system.'' In 2001, Mr. Ayers donated $200 to Mr. Obama's re-election campaign.
In addition, from 2000 to 2002, the two men also overlapped on the seven-member board of the Woods Fund, a Chicago charity that had supported Mr. Obama's first work as a community organizer in the 1980s. Officials there said the board met about a dozen times during those three years but declined to make public the minutes, saying they wanted members to be candid in assessing people and organizations applying for grants.
A board member at the time, R. Eden Martin, a corporate lawyer and president of the Commercial Club of Chicago, described both men as conscientious in examining proposed community projects but could recall nothing remarkable about their dealings with each other. ''You had people who were liberal and some who were pretty conservative, but we usually reached a consensus,'' Mr. Martin said of the panel.
Since 2002, there is little public evidence of their relationship.
If by then the ambitious politician was trying to keep his distance, it would not be a surprise. In an article that by chance was published on Sept. 11, 2001, The New York Times wrote about Mr. Ayers and his just-published memoir, ''Fugitive Days,'' opening with a quotation from the author: ''I don't regret setting bombs. I feel we didn't do enough.''
Three days after the Qaeda attacks, Mr. Ayers wrote a reply posted on his Web site to clarify his quoted remarks, saying the meaning had been distorted.
''My memoir is from start to finish a condemnation of terrorism, of the indiscriminate murder of human beings, whether driven by fanaticism or official policy,'' he wrote. But he added that the Weathermen had ''showed remarkable restraint'' given the nature of the American bombing campaign in Vietnam that they were trying to stop.
Most of the bombs the Weathermen were blamed for had been placed to do only property damage, a fact Mr. Ayers emphasizes in his memoir. But a 1970 pipe bomb in San Francisco attributed to the group killed one police officer and severely hurt another. An accidental 1970 explosion in a Greenwich Village town house basement killed three radicals; survivors later said they had been making nail bombs to detonate at a military dance at Fort Dix in New Jersey. And in 1981, in an armed robbery of a Brinks armored truck in Nanuet, N.Y., that involved Weather Underground members including Kathy Boudin and David Gilbert, two police officers and a Brinks guard were killed.
In his memoir, Mr. Ayers was evasive as to which bombings he had a hand in, writing that ''some details cannot be told.'' By the time of the Brinks robbery, he and Ms. Dohrn had emerged from underground to raise their two children, then Chesa Boudin, whose parents were imprisoned for their role in the heist.
Little Influence Seen
Mr. Obama's friends said that history was utterly irrelevant to judging the candidate, because Mr. Ayers was never a significant influence on him. Even some conservatives who know Mr. Obama said that if he was drawn to Ayers-style radicalism, he hid it well.
''I saw no evidence of a radical streak, either overt or covert, when we were together at Harvard Law School,'' said Bradford A. Berenson, who worked on the Harvard Law Review with Mr. Obama and who served as associate White House counsel under President Bush. Mr. Berenson, who is backing Mr. McCain, described his fellow student as ''a pragmatic liberal'' whose moderation frustrated others at the law review whose views were much farther to the left.
Some 15 years later, left-leaning backers of Mr. Obama have the same complaint. ''We're fully for Obama, but we disagree with some of his stands,'' said Tom Hayden, the 1960s activist and former California legislator, who helped organize Progressives for Obama. His group opposes the candidate's call for sending more troops to Afghanistan, for instance, ''because we think it's a quagmire just like Iraq,'' he said. ''A lot of our work is trying to win over progressives who think Obama is too conservative.''
Mr. Hayden, 68, said he has known Mr. Ayers for 45 years and was on the other side of the split in the radical antiwar movement that led Mr. Ayers and others to form the Weathermen. But Mr. Hayden said he saw attempts to link Mr. Obama with bombings and radicalism as ''typical campaign shenanigans.''
''If Barack Obama says he's willing to talk to foreign leaders without preconditions,'' Mr. Hayden said, ''I can imagine he'd be willing to talk to Bill Ayers about schools. But I think that's about as far as their relationship goes.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 4, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Bill Ayers, shown in 1982, started the Weathermen.(PHOTOGRAPH BY DAVID HANDSCHUH/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Bill Ayers accompanied his wife, Bernardine Dohrn, when she surrendered to Chicago authorities in December 1980, after 11 years of living underground.(PHOTOGRAPH BY CHARLES KNOBLOCK/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Mr. Ayers is now an education professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. Ms. Dohrn teaches at Northwestern University.(PHOTOGRAPH BY TODD BUCHANAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES, 20010
Mr. Ayers was wanted by the F.B.I. in 1970. Charges against him were dropped in 1974 because of prosecutorial misconduct.(PHOTOGRAPH BY ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Opponents of Senator Barack Obama have created advertisements linking him to Mr. Ayers, (pg. A14)
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The New York Times
October 4, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Anxiety On Economy Wins Out
BYLINE: By JOE NOCERA
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; TALKING BUSINESS; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1454 words
The thing that surprised me most, after the $700 billion bailout bill finally passed, was that Barney Frank never cracked a smile.
It was Friday afternoon, minutes after the resounding 263-171 vote -- reversing Monday's stunning rejection of the bill -- and the House Democratic leadership was holding a self-congratulatory news conference. Photographers pushed and shoved and stood on chairs to capture the moment.
Standing at the lectern was the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. Behind her stood a half-dozen members of the Democratic leadership, including Mr. Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who probably had more to do with the shape of the legislation than anyone other than Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke. The executive compensation limits, the aid for struggling homeowners, the toughened oversight provisions -- those all came from Mr. Frank and his allies, who knew that Mr. Paulson's initial ''give me the ball and get out of the way'' approach was a nonstarter.
Mr. Frank, in other words, had every reason to exult. Yes, the Senate had larded it with $150 billion worth of tax benefits -- including the now-infamous ''kiddie arrow'' tax break. But as Mr. Frank himself put it, ''If you don't want politics in this process, you probably shouldn't be handing it over to 535 politicians. That's democracy.''
Yet he was the only one at the news conference who wasn't beaming from ear to ear. Instead, as others spoke, he closed his eyes and, slightly but perceptibly, swayed back and forth. I've heard it said several times this week that financial panics sometimes end when everyone simply collapses of exhaustion. I don't know if we're at that point yet. But when I saw Barney Frank, I thought: there's a man who needs some sleep.
Although the vote didn't take place until a little after 1 p.m. Friday, everyone knew by 10:30 a.m. that it would pass. Before the debate on the bill, the House had to vote on the rules that would govern it. The Rules Committee had agreed that no amendments would be added to the legislation passed by the Senate on Wednesday. One after another, opponents of the bill rose to object.
''A bad bill got a lot worse,'' railed Representative Steven C. Latourette, a Republican from Ohio, his voice getting louder by the minute. ''This is a financial bailout package! The pork doesn't belong in this bill. This is an egregious rule!''
A reporter next to me said, ''He's in a tough re-election campaign.'' Just off the House floor, the House Republican leader, John Boehner of Ohio, was giving a brief news conference. Mr. Boehner, of course, had actively encouraged the House Republican revolt that had brought about the bill's shocking defeat on Monday. ''It is time to act,'' he said now. ''The members have a responsibility to protect the economy.''
Twenty minutes later, the rule passed 230 to 190. ''That's it,'' said someone in the press gallery.
I wandered to the Speakers Gallery, where reporters interview congressmen as they walk off the floor. I joined a scrum of reporters around one of the bill's fiercest opponents, Representative Darrell Issa of California. ''This is a crisis created by Hank Paulson,'' he fumed. ''His fundamental mistake was thinking he could orchestrate these rescues one by one. I voted for this president twice. But I never voted for Hank Paulson.'' A minute later he called Mr. Paulson, with undisguised contempt, ''the day trader from Goldman Sachs.''
I asked Mr. Issa whether, given the seriousness of the crisis, he would swallow hard and vote for the legislation. He looked at me like I'd lost my mind. ''This president turned a problem into a crisis,'' he said. ''Can we get out of this mess using tools other than this one? I think so. They could use the F.D.I.C. and the Fed to guarantee any loan made by any bank in the country. That would cost the taxpayers a lot less.''
And the prospect that the economy might go down the tubes if this bill didn't pass? ''I realize that people are going to vote for this based on the fact that there is a crisis,'' he sniffed. He, however, wasn't going to be one of them.
By the time I returned to the House press gallery, the debate was in full swing. It was clear that the fear sweeping Wall Street had finally reached Congress. Fear -- fear of what could happen if the credit crisis didn't ease; fear that Congress would be blamed for making things worse -- is why the bill was going to pass. As Mr. Frank put it later, ''On Monday the politically expedient vote was to vote no. By Friday, it wasn't clear what the politically expedient thing was to do.''
One congressman after another recounted hearing from constituents after the Monday vote, who warned about the potentially dire consequences. California was worried about rolling over its commercial paper. People with decent credit were having trouble getting auto loans. Companies were seeing credit tighten, making expansion impossible. On Friday morning, the government announced that 159,000 people had lost their jobs in September -- the highest number in five and a half years.
''We are out of choices,'' said Representative Zack Wamp, Republican of Tennessee. ''I voted against it. But pension funds are upside down in Tennessee. The cost of inaction is greater than the cost of this bill. I've been listening to small-business people who said to me, 'Thanks for saying no on Monday. Now hold your hand over your heart and vote yes.' ''
Two people played surprisingly large roles in the about-face in the House. The first was Warren E. Buffett, who said several times this week that the bailout bill could be a good deal for the government. Most elected representatives lack financial sophistication -- so when Mr. Buffett spoke out in favor of the bill it made a big impact. ''Buffett says if we do this right, we'll make a lot of money for the taxpayers,'' said the majority leader, Steny Hoyer, toward the end of the debate. Others mentioned Mr. Buffett as well.
The second person was Barack Obama. A week and a half ago, John McCain made a public spectacle of himself by ''suspending'' his campaign to ''fix'' the bill -- only to become paralyzed once he came face-to-face with the complexities of the situation. Mr. Obama not only supported the bill but made phone calls to members of the Congressional Black Caucus, many of whom voted against the bill on Monday. By Friday, many of them had switched sides.
And then there was John Boehner. Yes, he had voted for the bill on Monday, but he had also undercut it by encouraging the House firebrands who rallied to oppose it. It was clear that he been affected by the panic in the credit markets -- and on Main Street -- after the bill failed.
Mr. Boehner was one of the last to speak before the debate was cut off and the vote began. He sounded chastened. By then, the press gallery was packed. To the extent there was drama, Mr. Boehner supplied it. ''We're in the midst of a recession,'' he said. ''It is going to be rough. I ask you to remember the words, In God We Trust -- because we are going to need his help.'' As he walked back to his seat, even Democrats applauded.
Is it, though, in ''the best interest of the American people?'' I hope so -- but I don't really know. And neither does anyone in Congress. That is what makes this so hard for everyone who has to answer to constituents. Putting $700 billion of taxpayers' money at risk could turn out to be our salvation -- in which case they'll be heroes -- or it could turn out to be a giant mistake -- in which case they'll be looking for new jobs.
For Democrats and Republicans alike, there is no set of principles or ideology to fall back on. Nor is there any precedent -- we're all in uncharted territory. People who are natural foes of this administration, like Barney Frank, joined forces with a Republican Treasury secretary, while natural allies were calling Mr. Paulson that ''day trader from Goldman.'' In the end, the possibility that we are on the brink of economic disaster overcame even election jitters. In Congress, it doesn't get any more serious than that.
As the Democratic leadership news conference was ending, someone brought Ms. Pelosi a copy of the bill -- by now over 400 pages. In her role as speaker, Ms. Pelosi signs bills before they go on to the president for his signature. With the cameras clicking furiously, she prepared to sign it. Just before she did, she glanced back at Mr. Frank and said, ''Do you want to have a look at it?'' She handed him the bill. He opened its big blue cover. And then, finally, he cracked a smile.
Let's hope the credit markets smile on Monday.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Representative Barney Frank, left, joining Speaker Nancy Pelosi at the signing of the bailout package on Friday.(PHOTOGRAPH BY DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES)(pg. C3)
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The Washington Post
October 4, 2008 Saturday
Met 2 Edition
McCain Plans Fiercer Strategy Against Obama
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1250 words
Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.
With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain's team has decided that its emphasis on the senator's biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Arizonan's campaign is also eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.
"We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Being so aggressive has risks for McCain if it angers swing voters, who often say they are looking for candidates who offer a positive message about what they will do. That could be especially true this year, when frustration with Washington politics is acute and a desire for specifics on how to fix the economy and fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is strong.
Robert Gibbs, a top Obama adviser, dismissed the new McCain strategy. "This isn't 1988," he said. "I don't think the country is going to be distracted by the trivial." He added that Obama will continue to focus on the economy, saying that Americans will remain concerned about the country's economic troubles even as the Wall Street crisis eases somewhat.
Moments after the House of Representatives approved a bailout package for Wall Street on Friday afternoon, the McCain campaign released a television ad that challenges Obama's honesty and asks, "Who is Barack Obama?" The ad alleges that "Senator Obama voted 94 times for higher taxes. Ninety-four times. He's not truthful on taxes." The charge that Obama voted 94 times for higher taxes has been called misleading by independent fact-checkers, who have noted that the majority of those votes were on nonbinding budget resolutions.
A senior campaign official called the ad "just the beginning" of commercials that will "strike the new tone" in the campaign's final days. The official said the "aggressive tone" will center on the question of "whether this guy is ready to be president."
McCain's only positive commercial, called "Original Mavericks," has largely been taken off the air, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ads.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's performance at Thursday night's debate embodied the new approach, as she used every opportunity to question Obama's honesty and fitness to serve as president. At one point she said, "Barack Obama voted against funding troops [in Iraq] after promising that he would not do so."
Palin kept up the attack yesterday, saying in an interview on Fox News that Obama is "reckless" and that some of what he has said, "in my world, disqualifies someone from consideration as the next commander in chief."
McCain hinted Thursday that a change is imminent, perhaps as soon as next week's debate. Asked at a Colorado town hall, "When are you going to take the gloves off?" the candidate grinned and replied, "How about Tuesday night?"
Yesterday in Pueblo, Colo., McCain made clear that he intends to press Obama on a variety of familiar GOP themes during the debate, as he accused the Democrat once again of getting ready to raise taxes and increase government spending.
"I guarantee you, you're going to learn a lot about who's the liberal and who's the conservative and who wants to raise your taxes and who wants to lower them," McCain said.
A senior aide said the campaign will wait until after Tuesday's debate to decide how and when to release new commercials, adding that McCain and his surrogates will continue to cast Obama as a big spender, a high taxer and someone who talks about working across the aisle but doesn't deliver.
Two other top Republicans said the new ads are likely to hammer the senator from Illinois on his connections to convicted Chicago developer Antoin "Tony" Rezko and former radical William Ayres, whom the McCain campaign regularly calls a domestic terrorist because of his acts of violence against the U.S. government in the 1960s.
The Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. appears to be off limits after McCain condemned the North Carolina Republican Party in April for an ad that linked Obama to his former pastor, saying, "Unfortunately, all I can do is, in as visible a way as possible, disassociate myself from that kind of campaigning."
McCain advisers said the new approach is in part a reaction to Obama, whose rhetoric on the stump and in commercials has also become far harsher and more aggressive.
They noted that Obama has run television commercials for months linking McCain to lobbyists and hinting at a lack of personal ethics -- an allegation that particularly rankles McCain, aides said.
Campaigning in Abington, Pa., yesterday, Obama continued to focus on the economy, even as he lashed out at McCain.
"He's now going around saying, 'I'm going to crack down on Wall Street' . . . but the truth is he's been saying 'I'm all for deregulation' for 26 years," Obama said. "He hasn't been getting tough on CEOs. He hasn't been getting tough on Wall Street. . . . Suddenly a crisis comes and the polls change, and suddenly he's out there talking like Jesse Jackson."
Obama highlighted a new report showing a reduction of more than 159,000 jobs last month, and he linked the bad economic news to McCain and Palin.
"Governor Palin said to Joe Biden that our plan to get our economy out of the ditch was somehow a job-killing plan; that's what she said," Obama told a crowd of thousands. "I wonder if she turned on the news this morning. . . . When Senator McCain and his running mate talk about job killing, that's something they know a thing or two about, because the policies they've supported and are supporting are killing jobs in America every single day."
McCain issued a statement yesterday saying the bailout bill "is not perfect, and it is an outrage that it's even necessary. But we must stop the damage to our economy done by corrupt and incompetent practices on Wall Street and in Washington."
Speaking in Pueblo just as the House was finishing deliberations on the package, McCain blamed fellow lawmakers for the failure to adequately regulate the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"It was the Democrats and some Republicans in the Congress who pushed back and did not allow those reforms to take place, and that's a major reason we are in the trouble we are in today," he said. "Those members of Congress ought to be held accountable on November 4th as well."
Before the bailout crisis, aides said, McCain was succeeding in focusing attention on Obama's record and character. Now, they say, he must return to those subjects.
"We are looking for a very aggressive last 30 days," said Greg Strimple, one of McCain's top advisers. "We are looking forward to turning a page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans."
Staff writers Michael Abramowitz and Perry Bacon Jr. contributed to this report.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By John Moore -- Getty Images; "You're going to learn a lot" in next week's debate, Sen. John McCain promised supporters in Pueblo, Colo.
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The New York Times
October 3, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
McCain Abandons His Efforts to Win Michigan
BYLINE: By MICHAEL COOPER; Adam Nagourney and Michael Luo contributed reporting from New York.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 816 words
DATELINE: DENVER
Senator John McCain is giving up on his efforts to win the state of Michigan, his campaign said Thursday, in the latest sign that the faltering economy has reshaped the presidential race and cost Mr. McCain support in crucial states.
Ceding Michigan is a major blow to the McCain campaign, which had spent heavily on television commercials there and where Mr. McCain had campaigned repeatedly in the hopes that he could appeal to enough blue-collar voters, so-called Reagan Democrats and independent voters, to bring the state back into the Republican column in November.
But as the rippling financial crisis shook up the presidential election, and Mr. McCain's somewhat unsteady response to it appeared to cost him support in a number of recent polls of battleground states, his campaign decided to pull out of Michigan and redirect its resources to other swing states where they felt Mr. McCain had a better chance.
The McCain campaign has spent nearly $8 million on ads in Michigan, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, a company that monitors political advertising, and now it has no more plans to advertise there, campaign officials said. And Mr. McCain canceled a visit he had planned to make to Michigan next week.
Mr. McCain had long made it clear that the state was central to his presidential hopes, returning there to campaign again and again and bluntly telling a crowd at a factory in Belleville this July that ''the state of Michigan, as it has in many elections in the past, will determine who the next president of the United States is.'' His campaign announced its retreat on a day that the news of his ceding the state was almost sure to be drowned out by the buzz created by the much-anticipated vice-presidential debate.
The McCain campaign's withdrawal will free the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama, to redirect some of his resources from Michigan to several states that President Bush won in 2004 but where recent polls show Mr. Obama gaining ground, including Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
The McCain campaign still projected optimism in a conference call with reporters, as senior campaign officials argued that they were confident that the electoral map presented them with numerous paths to victory in November.
Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign's political director, said the campaign would send some of its Michigan workers and resources to other states that voted for Democrats in 2004 but that they hope to win in November.
He mentioned Pennsylvania, a state rich in electoral votes where Mr. Obama fared poorly in the Democratic primary; Wisconsin, which the Democrats have won narrowly in the last two presidential elections; and Maine, which divides its electoral votes.
And although the McCain campaign's decision to accept public financing means that it faces spending limits that the Obama campaign does not face, there were indications that the campaign continues to be in strong shape on the money front. The campaign announced that the Republican National Committee, which can augment the $84 million in public money that the campaign had to spend on itself, raised nearly $66 million in September -- well above what Republicans had initially said they hoped to raise.
Greg Strimple, a senior McCain campaign adviser, held open the possibility that the R.N.C. might continue to run some advertisements in Michigan to keep the state in play. ''If we see a swing back in our favor, we will re-engage,'' he said in the conference call.
The McCain campaign made the announcement as Mr. Obama campaigned in Michigan.
The Obama campaign reacted cautiously. ''We'll believe it when we see it,'' said David Plouffe, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, who noted that the McCain campaign could still return to the state, or that independent expenditure groups might step in to try to fill the vacuum. ''We're not going to take their word for it. We're going to fight for every vote.''
But Mr. Plouffe said that if the McCain campaign really does withdraw from the state, it will make it more important for Mr. McCain to win all the states that President Bush carried in 2004, including some where they have seen an erosion of support in some recent polls. ''It just makes their path more narrow,'' he said.
Mr. McCain's struggles in Michigan were clear at the campaign stop at a factory in Belleville in July, where he found himself peppered with questions about his support for free trade by workers who believe it has cost the state jobs.
His campaign officials made it clear that they intend to open an aggressive new campaign highlighting what they described as Mr. Obama's liberal record.
Here in Denver, Mr. McCain was asked at a town-hall-style meeting when he intended to take the gloves off. ''How about Tuesday night?'' Mr. McCain responded, in a nod to his next scheduled debate with Mr. Obama.
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USA TODAY
October 3, 2008 Friday
FIRST EDITION
McCain camp pulls out of vote-rich Michigan;
Ceding state an 'obvious' choice, adviser says
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 402 words
ST. LOUIS -- Republican John McCain's presidential campaign all but conceded vote-rich Michigan to Democrat Barack Obama on Thursday, diverting ad money and candidate trips from a state it once deemed a top target.
Michigan, with 17 electoral votes, is a vital Midwestern battleground that traditionally tests a presidential candidate's ability to draw key blocs such as working-class voters. Obama leads McCain in Michigan polls by an average of 7 percentage points, according to recent polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.
"It's been the worst state of all the states in play," McCain senior adviser Greg Strimple said. "It's an obvious one ...to come off the list."
Strimple said McCain still aims to win in Democratic-leaning states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and would "re-engage" if the situation improves.
Michigan-based political analysts said McCain always faced a hard sell in their home state, which has voted for the Democratic nominee in four straight presidential elections. They also questioned why the McCain campaign was so open about pulling out of such a big state so early, saying the news could dampen GOP enthusiasm elsewhere.
"It's probably the right thing for McCain to do," pollster Ed Sarpolus said, "but it sends the wrong signal to his troops."
McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan appears unprecedented. "I have never seen this in a presidential election at any time, in the last 50 years," said Bill Ballenger, editor of the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics.
Obama's campaign reacted cautiously to the McCain decision, which came just hours before the vice presidential debate between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Sarah Palin.
"I don't understand this," Obama senior strategist David Axelrod said. "We're not going to take anything for granted in Michigan."
McCain has made seven trips to Michigan, as his campaign hoped that voters there would take out their economic frustrations on the state's Democratic leadership. The day after McCain formally accepted the GOP nomination on Sept. 4, he and Palin drew a crowd of more than 7,000 in a Detroit suburb.
McCain is constrained, in part, by his decision to accept $84.1 million in taxpayer funds for the general election. But he has been helped by the Republican National Committee, which reported $66 million in fundraising for September. Obama is fueling his campaign with private funds.
Contributing: Fredreka Schouten
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The Washington Post
October 3, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
The Trail
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LENGTH: 819 words
OBAMA'S JUDGMENT QUESTIONED
Ad Points to Wright, Rezko, Ayers
The Rev. Wright for the Supreme Court?
A group of conservative legal activists doesn't exactly suggest that, but it is releasing an ad featuring Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. and two other controversial figures from Barack Obama's life as part of an effort to bring attention to the issue of Supreme Court nominees and raise questions about the candidate's judgment.
The new ad is paid for by the Judicial Confirmation Network, a group closely associated with the successful confirmations of Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.
The ad says that the next president could reshape the court because of anticipated departures over the next four years. But instead of talking about the views of either Obama or John McCain, the ad focuses on Obama's ties to Wright, his outspoken former pastor; Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a disgraced real estate developer and campaign fundraiser; and William Ayers, a 1960s radical who is now a professor.
The connection?
"We don't know who Barack Obama would choose, but we know this," the ad says. "He chose as one of his first financial backers a slumlord now convicted on 16 counts of corruption. Obama chose as an associate a man who helped to bomb the Pentagon and said he 'didn't do enough.' And Obama chose as his pastor a man who has blamed America for the 9/11 attacks."
Wendy Long, the general counsel for the Judicial Confirmation Network, said the message showed that Obama associated with those men while voting against confirmation of Roberts and Alito.
"I tried to tie it to the court," Long said. "I hope that worked. It's certainly about the court."
She said it is intended to be just the first phase of a campaign to show the "huge, huge choice" for voters on the issue, because McCain and Obama would make such different appointments to the Supreme Court and other federal courts.
She said the ad would run nationally on Fox, tied to the court's resumption of oral arguments on Monday, and in the battleground states of Ohio and Michigan.
-- Robert Barnes
EVENT CALLED NON-POLITICAL
Biden to Speak as Son Heads to Iraq
Joe Biden will speak Friday in Dover, Del., at the deployment ceremony for his son Beau, 39, who is headed to Iraq as part of a Delaware National Guard unit.
Aides to the Democratic vice presidential candidate said that the event was not political and that he was speaking as a father and senator. Beau Biden, who is Delaware's attorney general, is a member of the Army's Judge Advocate General Corps. In a news release, National Guard officials said he may serve as an army prosecutor. He will go to Fort Bliss, Tex., for training before heading to Iraq.
Biden's Republican counterpart, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, was accused of politicizing the service of her son Track, 18, last month when she spoke at his deployment ceremony, and Biden aides have tried to avoid a similar charge. At the same time, Beau Biden introduced his father at the Democratic National Convention, and his father occasionally mentions his son's service, unlike John McCain, who has avoided discussing the experiences of his son Jimmy, 19, a Marine who returned from a tour in Iraq in February.
"I'm proud, but I have to admit to you, I wish he wasn't going, I wish he wasn't going," the senator told "Entertainment Tonight" in an interview this week. Biden's wife, Jill, said in the same interview that "there is a lot of pride" but that "there's not a morning that I open my eyes that I don't say a prayer that he comes home safely."
-- Perry Bacon Jr.
QUICK POLLING
High Marks for All After Debate
Immediate reaction polls should be taken with a load of salt, but two of the best showed three winners in Thursday night's vice presidential showdown, with both candidates gaining ground and almost all those tuning in saying that moderator Gwen Ifill treated the rivals "fairly."
In a poll by CBS News of uncommitted voters and one by CNN of all debate watchers, more said Joe Biden was the winner, but Sarah Palin scored important points.
The overwhelming focus was on the Alaska governor, and more than eight in 10 voters in the CNN poll said she exceeded their expectations. Before the debate, 43 percent of uncommitted voters said Palin is knowledgeable about important issues; after the debate, that jumped to 66 percent. At the same time, both before and after, majorities of those polled by CNN said she lacks the qualifications to be president.
Biden, too, was widely seen as doing better than predicted, and he, like Palin, saw his favorability ratings go up in both polls.
But the bottom line is how many voters will be swayed by the event, and here, the preliminary evidence is not much: 71 percent of uncommitted voters in the CBS poll said they remained so after the debate. Among those who said they had shifted, slightly more said they tilted Democratic, 18 percent to 10 percent.
-- Jon Cohen
LOAD-DATE: October 3, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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IMAGE; By Robert Miller -- The Washington Post; Joe Biden hugged son Beau at the Democratic National Convention. Beau Biden is about to be deployed to Iraq.
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The Washington Post
October 3, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
Obama Spot Is Heavy on Supposition
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A08
LENGTH: 363 words
THE AD
John McCain: I can't wait to introduce her to the big spenders in Washington.
Narrator: Big spenders . . . like John McCain. McCain's tax plan means another 3 trillion in debt. His plan to privatize Social Security -- another trillion. Tax credits sent to insurance companies, yet another trillion. So as we borrow from China to fund his spending spree, ask yourself: Can we afford John McCain?
ANALYSIS
This Barack Obama ad is an attempt to capitalize on the public's anger and unease about the current financial crisis and deflect attention from McCain's charges that the Illinois Democrat would boost taxes and federal spending.
The allegation that McCain's tax proposals would add $3 trillion to the national debt is attributed to a group created by the left-leaning Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution. The Obama camp attributes the cost estimate on McCain's Social Security plan to a paper by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, written by none other than Jason Furman, now Obama's economics adviser.
The ad is misleading on that point. The Furman paper analyzes President Bush's unpopular 2005 proposal to allow Social Security recipients to invest part of their savings in the stock market. McCain has not made a detailed proposal. The Obama camp defends the commercial by saying that McCain told the Wall Street Journal in March that he would like to revamp Social Security "along the lines of what President Bush proposed."
Also left unmentioned is that Obama does not promise to eliminate the federal budget deficit during his first term, only to reduce it. So both candidates would continue to borrow heavily to finance current spending.
The ad also manages to remind viewers that the Arizona Republican's running mate is Sarah Palin, whose disapproval ratings have been rising in recent polls. The spot opens with a shot of McCain with the Alaska governor, even though the words the viewer hears -- about introducing "her" to the profligate Beltway spenders -- were spoken with Cindy McCain at her husband's side, a scene that briefly appears after the Palin shot.
-- Howard Kurtz
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 3, 2008 Friday 1:00 PM EST
On TV;
Reality, Non-Reality and Everything In-Between
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3746 words
HIGHLIGHT: Post TV columnist Lisa de Moraes was online Friday, Oct. 3 at 1 p.m. ET and wants to know who you think does folksy 'n' adorable better -- Fey or Palin, what show should be shot now that "Do Not Disturb" is good 'n' dead, and whether a Rosie O'Donnell variety special makes NBC crazy like a Fox, or just plain ol' nuts.
Post TV columnist Lisa de Moraes was online Friday, Oct. 3 at 1 p.m. ET and wants to know who you think does folksy 'n' adorable better -- Fey or Palin, what show should be shot now that "Do Not Disturb" is good 'n' dead, and whether a Rosie O'Donnell variety special makes NBC crazy like a Fox, or just plain ol' nuts.
The transcript follows.
Lisa Blogs From the Press Tour| TV columns| On TV discussion transcripts.
De Moraes has written "The TV Column" for The Post since 1998. She served as the TV editor for the entertainment industry trade publication the "Hollywood Reporter" for almost a decade.
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Providence, R.I.: If McCain and Palin lose, how long before she gets her own TV show?
Lisa de Moraes: Hi. My money's on her becoming "The Daily Show's" Senior Moose Field-Dressing Correspondent the following week.
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Los Angeles: Did you catch "Dirty Sexy Money"? I liked it, but what exactly was the re-tool? Getting rid of most of the women (girl twin, drunk wife, transexual girlfriend)? Is the twin character gone for good? I seem to remember the actress had some personal issues. Did they explain what happened to her, or is she like Tiger from "The Brady Bunch" ... disappearing, never to return or be mentioned again?
Lisa de Moraes: Yes, Twin Chick has been disappeared without explanation. Also, priest son is now working for Daddy Sutherland, Lucy Liu has takent her Predator Chick routine to the show, and Peter Krause's character is no longer so tightly wound he won't deck Junior after catching him making out with his wife, Lisa. All welcome changes...
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Silver Spring, Md.: Isn't "Pushing Daisies" amazing? I think that if I were depressed, that show would cheer me right up. Maybe their new ad campaign should be "Pushing Daisies: Better Than Prozac."
Lisa de Moraes: Yes, it's amazing how drenching the screen with color cheers you up. I'm surprised all the other shows haven't figured this out. Maybe "Heroes" should give it a try -- based on this week's numbers. But did't you find Voiceover Guy just a teensy bit too much this week?
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Silver Spring, Md.: I cannot wait for "Saturday Night Live" this week (and wow I don't say that often). Not only is Tina Fey coming back to play Palin, Oprah is going to play Gwen Ifill. And Darell Hammond probably will add another old white character to his resume and play Joe Biden. Also, I think Anne Hathaway is hosting. I wonder if they'll make fun of her jailed ex-boyfriend.
Lisa de Moraes: I'm guessing they had to take a pledge to not do any jokes about her ex in order to snag her as host. Letterman, to his credit, asked her about it when she popped up on her show to plug her new flick and she said rather icily she was not ready to discuss it...
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Washington: Obligatory David Caruso question: Will the day come when Caruso embraces his "Caruso-ness" and, like William Shatner and the late Robert Goulet, figure out that self-parody is the surest route to being loved and to enjoying a career well into your '70s? Or does he really think he's a serious actor?
Lisa de Moraes: David Caruso appears to be going down the Self-Parody Road already. For the CBS upfront presentation two Mays ago, he'd recorded pretty funny video in which he took off his shades, peered into the camera and announced which day of the week the programming chief was now going to discuss..
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Harrisburg, Pa.: Pookie, Maybe it's the still new crop of sycophants or maybe it's the addition of his little private-eye buddy, but it sure looks like Dr. House has nuked the fridge. What do you think?
Lisa de Moraes: It's tragic. I think he's even getting highlights in his hair now. He looked suspicious like he's going to Ryan Seacrest's hair person last week...
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Jumping the Shark: Lisa, I believe your assessment of "Big Bang Theory" is that it's jumping the shark. Getting rid of Penny is not good for the show. Who really wants to watch two geeks get it on? But watching the geek strive for the pretty girl provides good commontary. Penny provides good comic relief to the over-people's-heads comments made by the scientists. Brings the show down a little. Now, you want to add another scientist? Sorry Pookie, but if they get rid of Penny, the show is done. I'm not a fan of Haley Cuoco (never have been), but she is what's keeping the show on an even keel.
Lisa de Moraes: Quite the contrary. I think the show is better the less of Penny we have to suffer through. If Penny was being played by a better actor, that would be another story. The role is a good one, it's just not being very well executed...
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Larry Wilmore:"The Daily Show's" Senior Black Correspondent was absolutely brilliant with his report last night. Why don't they assign him other topics? Or do I need to vote for Barack Obama just so Wilmore will be given more air time?
Lisa de Moraes: Wilmore is priceless. I don't know why they don't feature him more often. Yes, he wears a lot of other hats, including occasionally writing for "The Office" -- and, way back when, he was e.p. on Fox's "Bernie Mac" show, so I don't know if it's a case of him being busy working on other projects, or "The Daily Show's" choice. But "Daily Show" can't use Wilmore too often, if you ask me...
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Up North: I don't know why, but I've watched both episodes of "Gary Unmarried." I think I continue to watch to see if Jay Mohr is capable of doing a non-whiny voice. For some reson "New Christine" makes divorce funnyl; this show does not.
Lisa de Moraes: Okay, here's what I really want to know: What HAPPENED to Jay Mohr? He's gotten so, um, fat? He's gotten so, um, un-edgy? I miss "Action" Jay Mohr..
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"90210": Now that Shannon Dougherty is leaving "90210," when does Tori Spelling arrive? I can't wait to view this train wreck!!
Lisa de Moraes: Tori said she had to spend more time with her new child first. Which I'm guessing means another week?
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" 'Til Death": Pookie, please help me understand. You have a failing show (" 'Til Death") with a shaky premise -- old, jaded married couple play off young, married believe-in-romance couple. So to save it, you kill off what little premise you have, focus more on the unlikable old married couple, thereby heightening the viewers' awareness that the old couple really is unlikable, and add a strange African American character whose "jive" style actually can induce winces and the desire to donate liberally to the NAACP. Are you indeed saving the show, or is it just proof Dr. Moreau is in charge of the island after all?
Lisa de Moraes: Usually, though I don't know if this is the case here, it means the star is the executive producer of the series. This show needs to be put out of our misery, for sure.
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Washington: Lisa, I know that "Scrubs" has moved to ABC, and that they've finished shooting this season's episodes ... but when will it actually air?
Lisa de Moraes: No launch date announounced yet. Much speculation, but it's just that...
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Indianapolis, Ind.: How does one get a job as a "Little General" spotter at a Standards and Decency group? I think I would be well-qualified for the job. And I could learn to wag my accusing finger as well as the next person.
Lisa de Moraes: Get in line. I too am angling for a Little Colonel Spotter job at CBS, now that the network has been forced to see the obvious need, thanks to the Parents TV Council's having filed an indecency complaint against the network in re it's Peekaboo Penis episode of "Survivor."
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It sure looks like Dr. House has nuked the fridge: I don't know what that means! I'm pathetically out of it! Please 'splain.
Lisa de Moraes: I think it's the new "jumped the shark" ...ages ago we seemed to reach an agreement the expression was sadly in need of updating...
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Arlington, Va.:"ALF" is back! (And not just in pog form - thanks Milhouse!) "ALF" didn't do well the first time around, right? Is there really a nostalgia feeling for that show? Does it get better with a second viewing? Do the cats eat "ALF"?
washingtonpost.com: Re: A second viewing, see for yourself (Hulu).
Lisa de Moraes: ALF was huge!
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Washington: ABC is aggressively trying to get viewers for "Pushing Daisies"? What? I'd be interested in the show if they would give me the opportunity to see the first season. I'm sure I'm not the only one who misses re-runs. Couldn't they have burned off a first season marathon on SoapNet or something? Why should I be loyal to a show I haven't seen since early last winter?
Lisa de Moraes: It was a huge mistake for ABC to not even air the reruns over the summer and then spend half of the first episiode this season trying to explain the show's set-up, which is extremely complicated, though lovely. Yes,they should have run a marathon on the ABC broadcast network before the start of the season,or at least on ABC Family or something. Unless I missed it, in which case, Never Mind...
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"90210": Wait -- how did I miss that Shannon Doherty was leaving "90210"? Did she only sign on for a few episodes? What about Jennie Garth?
Lisa de Moraes: Both are signed for a limited number of episodes. But Doherty's are just more limited than Garth's. Doherty is, let's admit, dreadful on the show.
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Greensboro, N.C.: I love the show "Life," but they replaced the female boss with Donal Logue -- what happened? Did the actress get a better job?
Lisa de Moraes: I like the change. Fun chemistry between him and Damian Lewis. Sadly, it appears to be too late. None of this fall's Do-Over series launched very well: "Life," "Chuck," "Pushing Daisies," "Private Practice," "Dirty Sexy Money" -- all freshman shows from last season that got hurt badly by the writers strike and which their networks -- NBC and ABC -- decided not to bring back when the strike ended. Instead, they decided to try to re-launch them this fall.
_______________________
I Hate "Grey's Anatomy": I decided to watch the season premiere of "Grey's Anatomy" with my wife; I almost didn't make it. The horror, the horror. Do any of these idiot doctors actually, you know, practice medicine? And the lead character -- she was so whiny and self-absorbed that I felt like throwing a lamp through the TV whenever she was on.
Lisa de Moraes: Meredith could talk of nothing else but McDreamy last week and I think she's forgotten entirely how to practice medicine. After watching the season debut, I was sure I would never ever ever want to find myself at that hospital. The doctors are so distracted, so self-absorbed. No wonder the hospital fell to No. 12 in the Country's Best List. I was left wondering how it made the list at all. Sadly, I don't think that's what the show intended viewers to walk away with...
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Colorado Springs, Colo.: How does Fox expect me to catch up when they don't put new episodes of "House" online until after the next episode has aired? I'm not going to watch it live until I've seen the previous episodes. Maybe I have to wait until World Series time to catch up?
Lisa de Moraes: I'm guessing the rules are being in some way being set by the show's owner, NBC Universal. I'm frankly surprised Fox gets to replay them at all...
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Washington: Hi Lisa. What about "24"? When does its season start? Will Fox continue with the multiple-torture episodes? I liked it the first few seasons, but am wondering if it has jumped the shark yet. Thanks.
Lisa de Moraes: The "24" play pattern has included a January launch for several years now. This TV season is no different. BUT, FOx is going to air a two-hour "24" movie, "24: Exiled" during the November sweep. Can't wait!
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Now that we have "The Mentalist": Does that mean "Medium" is gone?
Lisa de Moraes: If "The Mentalist" and "Psych" can co-exist, why can't "The Mentalist" and "Medium"? They're on different networks and everything! NBC has said "Medium" will re-join its Sunday lineup in the first quarter..
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"The Ex-List": So part of the premise of this show is that she has to get married within a year. Does that mean they already decided it probably wouldn't last more than one season? Otherwise they'll have to find some excuse to keep her running around looking for "The One" after the year is up.
Lisa de Moraes: You assume the show is playing out in "real" time, like "24." Given that no one ages on these shows -- you have high school dramas in which the students are all there for six or eight years and no, they're all not flunkies, so why can't a show in which she finds her mate in a one-year deadline last for four years?
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This Season: Should I be watching "Private Practice" or "Grey's Anatomy"?
Lisa de Moraes: Given the ratings on Private Practice, I'd say "Grey's Anatomy." And, of course, they've added Kevin McKidd to the cast of "Grey's" which moves it up the Watch-o-Meter about eight notches.. Yup, stick with "Grey's"
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Bethesda, Md.: Billy Bush has started appearing on "Today" from 9 a.m. to 10 a.m. Is he trying to go into more serious news? I just cannot take him as a newscaster, period. But I wonder, what's next for him? I'd say "Access Hollywood" all the way.
Lisa de Moraes: If they're showcasing him on NBC News's "Today" show, it's just a matter of time before he joins the lineup of MSNBC...
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Re: Why can't a show in which she finds her mate in a one-year deadline last for four years?: And those stupid "Peanuts" characters never get any older either!
Lisa de Moraes: My point exactly...
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Bowie, Md.: What happened to "Chuck?" I was so excited to return to this great show, but they changed so much of it in the first episode that I'm tempted to stop watching it. This season's first episode might as well have been for some completely different show starring the same actors. Why did NBC feel they needed to tinker with a good thing?
Lisa de Moraes: Because it's ratings were sliding. All of the Do-Over series seem to have made substantial changes to the show -- some good, some not so....
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Tempe, Ariz.: Do they put the naked lady in water every week on "Fringe," or is that just a sometimes thing?
Lisa de Moraes: It is definitely working for the show, so I'm guessing it will become a regular feature. After all, they have to find some geeky pretext for getting her clothes off...
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New York: I read a review of the new season of "Friday Night Lights" in the New York Times this week, and it's only on DirecTV until it begins again on NBC in February. Would you know if it's possible to see DirecTV shows online? Although you aren't, I am a huge fan of the show.
Lisa de Moraes: I don't know but I will find out. Given that DirecTV is paying to offer its subs original programming, it would seem unlikely...
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Huey: What was up with all the Huey Lewis songs in "Chuck"? Is he making some kind of comeback, or are his songs just really cheap to get the rights to nowadays? It hurt my ears.
Lisa de Moraes: smells like product placement to me...
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"Without a Trace": Did "Without a Trace" jump the shark? What's with showing us where the victim is and what's going on during the investigation? Adding Steven Weber to the cast I like; this new change, not so much. I hope it isn't going to continue.
Lisa de Moraes: Weber is a great addition -- I continue to be surprised to discover he can act. It's going to take years to get over seeing him on "Wings." The show has been moved around CBS's schedule a lot and I know they wanted it to start with a bang this season, which explains the episode you did not seem to like much...
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Falls Church, Va.: When is Rob Thomas's retooled "Cupid" going to debut on ABC? I loved the Jeremy Piven/Paula Marshall version ... is it going to be worth watching with different leads?
Lisa de Moraes: I'm willing to put up with lack of Jeremy Piven for the sake of lack of Paula Marshall. Sarah Paulson is a major step up, and I'm willing to give Bobby Cannavale a chance because I loved him on "Will & Grace"..Oh, did I just say that out loud?
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Billy Bush: Already is on "Access Hollywood." He took over "anchoring" when Pat O'Brian left (I'm sad that I know this). Is anybody else freaked out by how much he looks like his cousin?
Lisa de Moraes: Yes,I think the person who asked that question was aware he is already on "Access H." Hence the crack...and yes, as time goes on, he looks more and more like W...
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Fairfax, Va.:"Doherty is, let's admit, dreadful on the show." Wait, I'm confused: Are you talking about "Charmed," the original "90210," the new "90210," pre-Tracy Morgan "Scare Tactics" or "Our House"? Face it, sister can 't act -- between that and her famous tantrums, how does she keep getting work?
Lisa de Moraes: No, talking about "90210."....and of course she got the gig because the producers wanted to trot out several of the old cast members from the original "Beverly Hills, 90210". I'm guessing they thought Doherty would be a great get for just the reasons you named. It absolutely got the new show boatloads of cost-free attention in the celebrity suck-up press so -- Mission Accomplished!
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'Splain further: But "jumping the shark" had to do with an actual episode. Was there some sort of bizarre refrigerator accident that happened on "House" to spawn that saying?
washingtonpost.com: Nuke the Fridge (Urban Dictionary)
Lisa de Moraes: Here you go...
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Watertown, Mass.: Any news on when " Emergency!" is coming back? Or "Courtship of Eddie's Father"? Is a new "Little House on the Prairie" in the Works? Man, them were the days!
Lisa de Moraes: No, but I did hear that NBC is bringing back yet another old show it's remaking -- no doubt one its programming chief, Ben Silverman loved to watch as a child. If I'd had any coffee this morning, I might even remember which show it was. Alas, I did not and I cannot...
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Fairfax, Va.: How does Julia Louise Dreyfrus look better now than she did 10 years ago on "Seinfeld"?
Lisa de Moraes: Yes, she looked a lot better on Conan O'Brien's show the other night, in a shortish skirt,revealing top, styled hair, than in the Annie Hall-esque get-ups they used to put her in on "Seinfeld." But, to cut to the chase, if you're really asking me are those breasts real, I do not know.
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Columbia, Md.: Paul Potts, a cell-phone salesman and opera singer, wins the hearts and minds of Britain singing "Nessun Dorma" and becomes the winner of "Britain's Got Talent" (and a huge YouTube sensation). Neal E. Boyd, an insurance salesman and opera singer, wins the hearts and minds of America singing "Nessun Dorma" and becomes the winner of "America's Got Talent." Coincidence? Nuttin' But Stringz was one of the few original talent acts on any of these competition shows. They were robbed.
Lisa de Moraes: I cannot explain why TV viewers will vote for an opera singer but they will not actually pay to listen to an opera singer. It's one of those great mysteries of TV....
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Santa Fe, N.M.: I don't want to watch TV's "Crash." Do I have to?
Lisa de Moraes: No, pookums, you don't have to watch anything you dont' want to. And in the case of this series, I would not recommend it...
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Greenbelt, Md.: So Mark Burnett is going to have to hire a staff of nipple/pubic hair/Li'l Colonel watchers to make sure they're on the ball (no pun intended) with the pixellation? Good grief. This is not the same thing as the Janet Jackson fiasco ... there's intent and then there's something that slips by, because, well ... we're not really looking for it. It sometimes seems like these people are trying to find something like that, and if they do, they freeze-frame their Tivo and try to watch it over and over again. I think their priorities are a little skewed.
Lisa de Moraes: Yes, reminds me of those blue-hairedladies who noted to Samuel Johnson that the first English dictionary, which he wrote in the 18th century, did not contain any dirty words. He responded something to the effect, "Ah, that means you went looking for them." Or maybe I just dreamed that...
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Shonda Rhimes: Why does she hate relationships? Seriously, nobody on "Grey's Anatomy" ever can have a normal relationship. If she tries to tell me that's just how relationships are, I will vomit.
Lisa de Moraes: No, Shonda Rhimes would never say anything that revealing. She's a mystery wrapped in an enigma, or however that goes...but, to be fair, aren't normal relationships boring on drama series? If she didn't have the whole staff emotionally stunted, then she'd have to have look up a lot of medical terms, like on "House." I'm guessing emotional train wreck is easier to write...and certainly appeals to chick viewers, judging by the numbers.
_______________________
That poster is nuts: Shannen Doherty was the best part of both old-school "90210" and "Charmed." She may not be the best actress in the world (I see no Oscars in her future) but she's definitely fun to watch, and brings something to the shows. Quite frankly, I've been watching the new "90210," but if both Kelly and Brenda are gone now, I think I am too.
Lisa de Moraes: Shannen Doherty is in desperate need of a makeover. Can someone please cut her hair and give her braces? That said, she'd be a perfect addition to "Desperate Housewives" and yes I am aware I am now just babbling...
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"Without a Trace": I thought the preview made it clear that following the victim was a one-time thing, similar to the episode where they showed everything from the family's point of view?
Lisa de Moraes: They made it clear, but if it had been a whopping big ratings success, that doesn't mean they wouldn't make it a more regular thing... I'm out of time. See you next week...
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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USA TODAY
October 2, 2008 Thursday
FA_CHASE FINAL EDITION
Independent groups fire barrages through ads;
Veterans blast Obama; nurses go after Palin
BYLINE: Fredreka Schouten
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 717 words
WASHINGTON -- Independent political groups launched themselves into the White House contest with full force this week, unveiling a slew of television, radio and Internet attack ads on the eve of today's vice presidential debate between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Sarah Palin.
Vets for Freedom, a non-profit group with ties to Republican donors, started a $2.2 million television campaign in California, slamming Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama on national security. The California Nurses Association, which supports Obama, began running an anti-Palin television ad Wednesday in six battleground states. The 30-second spot, titled "One Heartbeat Away," says Palin is unsuited for the job.
Similar ads will hit the air in the coming weeks as groups try to influence the close race between Obama and Republican John McCain, analysts said. The groups are boosted by a 2007 Supreme Court ruling that allows them to run attack ads in the final days before an election.
"These groups have been holding back, trying to raise as much money as they can, but now it's go time," said Evan Tracey, who tracks TV political ads for TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG.
Independent groups, which cannot legally coordinate their activities with the candidates, were a big force in the 2004 race between President Bush and Democrat John Kerry. They ranged from the liberal MoveOn.org Voter Fund and deep-pocketed labor unions to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a small group bankrolled by a handful of wealthy GOP donors that ran television ads challenging Kerry's Vietnam War record.
Vets for Freedom has emerged as one of the bigger players in this election. The group, which bills itself as the nation's largest group of Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans, has spent more than $5 million on TV ads, Chairman Pete Hegseth said.
The Vets for Freedom ad, titled "Skipped," says Obama missed nearly half the Senate's votes but showed up "to vote against emergency funding for our troops."
Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt called the ad "a despicable distortion" of Obama's record.
Obama and McCain each have voted for bills that include troop funding. Obama said he opposed one such bill in May 2007 because it did not set a timetable for removing U.S. troops from Iraq.
The group operates under a section of the tax code that does not require it to identify its donors. The donors who appeared on the most recent IRS statement for a now-defunct arm of the group included several major GOP contributors, such as Virginia developer Bob Pence.
Other independent groups are airing pro-Obama ads. They include the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, whose ads attack the records of McCain and Palin, and Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund, which will air an anti-Palin commercial tonight on TV stations in St. Louis, the site of the vice presidential faceoff.
The ad, which includes graphic, bloody images of aerial hunting of wolves, also will run in five battleground states. Palin backs hunting from aircraft to protect moose and caribou populations from predators.
"These sorts of disgusting ads being run by Obama's special-interest allies are part of what's wrong with Washington," Republican National Committee spokesman Alex Conant said.
The Price of Power is an ongoing series tracking the role of money in politics
Organizations target ads to battlegrounds
Independent groups backing either Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama launched major ad campaigns this week. Some of the groups and the states in which their ads are airing include:
*Planned Parenthood Action Fund (anti-Sarah Palin): St. Louis; Madison, Wis.; Milwaukee and Washington/Northern Virginia.
*Judicial Confirmation Network (anti-Obama): National cable television and Michigan and Ohio.
*Vets for Freedom (anti-Obama): California.
*California Nurses Association (anti-Palin): Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri.
*Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund (anti-Palin): Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Colorado and Wisconsin. Also, St. Louis and Washington/Northern Virginia market during vice presidential debate tonight.
*Matthew 25 Network (pro-Obama): Radio ads in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Sources: Planned Parenthood, Vets for Freedom, California Nurses Association, Defenders of Wildlife, Matthew 25 Network, Judicial Confirmation Network
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The Washington Post
October 2, 2008 Thursday
Regional Edition
For Marylanders, a Drafthouse to Call Their Own
BYLINE: Lavanya Ramanathan
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C11
LENGTH: 1831 words
Among the special attractions at the Arlington Cinema 'N' Drafthouse over the years has been the stand-up of Janeane Garofalo and "Daily Show" co-creator Lizz Winstead, and the regular showings of "Office Space" and "The Big Lebowski." And let's not forget the Monday-night screenings of "Grindhouse" and "300" for a dollar, with nachos and beer delivered to you tableside.
Beginning this month, a trip to Virginia won't be necessary for any of that. Residents of MoCo can hit the new Montgomery Cinema & Drafthouse in Wheaton. Why this is exciting: When it opens sometime in the next week, the theater will book the same comedians from its Arlington location, host the same Dude Fests and $1 movies and free sporting-event screenings, and even bring in the same quaint office-chair-like seating that makes the Arlington theater so not like a movie theater.
Plans for the new cinema were announced in February, with renovations of a pre-existing movie theater space beginning this July. It's off Veirs Mill Road and little hard to spot behind a Bally Total Fitness at Westfield Shoppingtown Wheaton, but it's just across the street from the Wheaton Metro station, and we timed a drive from Rockville at just about 10 minutes.
"People may get off work at 5, but they're not getting home till 7," says the theater's president, Greg Godbout, when asked why the complex was planned for Montgomery County. "They're not going to go back to the city [for entertainment]."
Walk in the door to a glossy new lobby area with tables and a long bar serving 20 brands of beer, including Stella Artois, Guinness, Flying Dog and "probably like eight you've never heard of," Godbout says. There is no concession stand, because the theater offers table service, but you can still get popcorn (you just have to get it off the menu).
Virginians, take note: The MoCo drafthouse is, at 32,000 square feet, bigger than the sister location (there are six theaters, with two equipped for live entertainment) and will offer the first-run movies that Arlington doesn't. And there is, finally, a huge parking lot -- fans of the original location, you know what we're talking about.
Already slated in coming weeks: Redskins games, the "Maryland Grindhouse" triple feature of raunch-horror flicks, Dude Fest (a screening of "The Big Lebowski" and a comedy show featuring Arj Barker, who opened the Flight of the Conchords show at Lisner Auditorium this May).
As is typical of new venues, the opening date is a little fuzzy, but the theater is scheduled to open in the next week; check the theater's Web site for updates.
Movies will be $9.25 for first-run films, matinees are $7.75; comedy shows will run $15-$25; live children's entertainment will be about $8. The theater is for those 21 and older; younger patrons are allowed only if accompanied by a parent or guardian. For details about the theater and information about the opening, visit http://www.montgomerydrafthouse.com or 301-949-9200.
SAVE THE DATE
FOR FAMILIES Halloween, the Musical? Um, sort of. Post-Classical Ensemble's "scary music" performance at Strathmore at the end of the month is a concert -- for children! -- in the spirit of Halloween, with moody lighting, a giant snake puppet and more to set the scene. "Carnival of Creatures" includes such works as Henry Cowell's "The Banshee" (famed for its wailing sound and for its technical experimentation) and "Tiger"; Silvestre Revueltas's "Sensemayá," based on a chant for killing a snake; and Saint-Saëns's joyous "The Carnival of the Animals," in which instruments depict the sounds creatures make. Recommended for children 6 and up. $18-$35. Oct. 26. 1 p.m. Music Center at Strathmore, 5301 Tuckerman Lane, North Bethesda. 301-581-5100 or get tickets at http://www.strathmore.org.
THE SCENE Flying Karamazov Brothers More than 30 years after first juggling at a California Renaissance fair, the brothers (who are not really siblings) have created a full-on circus act that has been seen by audiences around the world; the juggling is still part of the show, but these brothers Karamazov also dance, make music, bang on things and perform comedy. They land at the intimate Barns at Wolf Trap later this month for two nights. $35. Oct. 21 and 22. 8 o'clock both nights. Barns at Wolf Trap, 1635 Trap Rd., Vienna. 877-965-3872.
THE DISTRICT
Today
FILM The Experimental and the Extraordinary, at the Hirshhorn The museum kicks off its fall film series (with movies by and about artists) tonight with "In the Loop," featuring nine of the top video art works from the international LOOP festival of media art in Barcelona. (In two weeks, watch for "Seven Easy Pieces," which traces Marina Abramovic's efforts to restage seven of her renowned performance works at the Guggenheim Museum.) Free. Tonight at 8. Series continues Oct. 16, 22 and Nov. 13, also at 8. Hirshhorn Museum, Ring Auditorium, lower level, Seventh Street and Independence Avenue SW. 202-633-3030.
ON STAGE "The Road to Mecca" Athol Fugard's 1988 drama, being staged by Studio Theatre after a recent successful run of Fugard's "My Children! My Africa!," tells the story of an ostracized elderly woman whose many cement figurines outside her home -- her "Mecca" -- raise red flags for the Afrikaner community in which she lives. She calls on a young friend, a teacher, to help her endure the community's attacks. The show was just extended. $34-$61. Wednesday-Saturday at 8 p.m., Sundays at 7 p.m., also Saturdays and Sundays at 2. (Extra show next Tuesday at 8.) Through Oct. 19. 1501 14th St. NW. 202-332-3300.
Tomorrow
CLOSING End of the Season for Jazz in the National Gallery's Sculpture Garden Bemoan the close of this summer institution tomorrow as the art museum's series goes out with a bang: The last concerts tomorrow are part of the Duke Ellington Jazz Festival, which brings in charismatic, local-by-way-of-France harmonica performer Frédéric Yonnet. He plays two shows, at 5:30 and 7:15 p.m. Free. Seventh Street and Constitution Avenue NW. 202-289-3360.
THE SCENE Carte Blanche: The French-Electro Happy Hour The Alliance Francaise's happy hour, with food, drink, an iPod DJ component and a chance to actually put your high school French to work, returns to Hillwood Museum and Gardens in upper Northwest tomorrow. The event is themed to celebrate French film and art this time, so expect to see French films screened. $12; $10 in advance (Hillwood and Alliance members, $8-$10). 6:30-9:30 p.m. 4155 Linnean Ave. To RSVP, call 202-234-7911, Ext. 16 or 31. For more details, go to http://www.francedc.org.
MARYLAND
Today
FILM "O Pai, O" This Brazilian offering, one of the last movies in the 19th annual Latin American Film Festival, is a music-filled comedy about the impoverished but spirited town of Pelourinho on the last day of Carnival; the soundtrack features songs by Caetano Veloso. The film festival continues through Tuesday. In Portuguese with English subtitles. $6-$10. Today at 9:20 and Sunday at 9:15 p.m. AFI Silver Theatre, 8633 Colesville Rd., Silver Spring. 301-495-6720.
Tomorrow
ON STAGE Paula Poundstone Did you know the comic and author "covered" the 1992 presidential election for "The Tonight Show"? So you can be sure that the wry Poundstone will be delving into Obama, McCain and the media when she performs two shows tomorrow night at Rams Head Tavern in Annapolis. Poundstone shows have a tendency to sell out, and there are a limited number of tickets left for these two, so get them in advance. $37.50. 7 and 10 p.m. 33 West St., Annapolis. Get tickets at http://tickets.ramsheadonstage.com.
Saturday
THE SCENE Small Press Expo: Convergence of the Comics-Heads The Small Press Expo is a two-day showcase of comics artists, would-be graphic novelists and publishers from across the country. Artists including Richard Thompson ("Cul de Sac") and Tom Tomorrow ("This Modern World") will head up panels, meet-and-greet and just maybe offer advice (bring your portfolios, people). The expo starts Saturday. $8 for one day, $15 for both days (tickets sold at the door only). 11 a.m.-7 p.m. Saturday; noon-6 p.m. Sunday. Bethesda North Marriott Hotel & Conference Center, 5701 Marinelli Rd. For information, call 301-537-4615 or for a full schedule, visit http://www.spxpo.com. For an expo primer, check out Comic Riffs' interviews with Thompson and Ted Rall on The Post's comics blog, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/comic-riffs.
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Today
ON STAGE Second City: Time to "Deface the Nation" Shows by the touring arm of the famed Second City comedy troupe are consistently packed in Washington (Second City is the training ground that launched Bill Murray, Tina Fey, Steve Carell and about a million other stars). But a politics-themed show on the night of the vice presidential debate? Consider it a boon if you're looking to go out: Tickets remain for the Arlington Cinema 'N' Drafthouse run of "Deface the Nation," Second City's sketch show skewering today's politicians. And if you're staying home to watch Sarah Palin and Joe Biden face off? You can still catch the show tomorrow or Saturday. $25-$32. 7 and 9:45 each night through Saturday. 2903 Columbia Pike, Arlington. 703-486-2345 or get tickets in advance at http://www.arlingtondrafthouse.com.
Tomorrow
CONCERT The Bird and the Bee The Los Angeles duo of Greg Kurstin and Inara George channel Broadcast, Stereolab and just a touch of Miles Davis on their debut record, released on Blue Note Records, because, well, the pair's love of jazz is evident. The duo had a dance hit last year with a song about a guy who just won't commit (the song title's unprintable here), and they play Jammin' Java tomorrow night. As a singer with a gorgeous lilting voice, George really has to be seen to be believed. $17. 8 p.m. 227 E. Maple Ave., Vienna. 703-255-1566.
Saturday
THE SCENE Girls' Day Out: "How Not to Look Old" Charla Krupp's best-selling book breaks down the ways in which women, particularly those over 40, can update their looks in ways small (new, hip eyeglasses) and large (uh, "injectables"?). "It's not about looking good to get a guy," says Krupp -- a columnist at More and former beauty director at Glamour -- whom we chatted with by phone from New York. "It's about looking good when you want to reenter the job market, when you want to keep your job." To help Washington women get themselves updated, Krupp is visiting Tysons Corner Center to talk about her tips, particularly how women can pick out jeans for their weekends as well as casual Fridays. And don't worry, she's not going to try to "update you" into skinny jeans: She says those don't work "unless you are Kate Moss." The talk is also a "beau-tea" party with mini-mani beauty bars and light hors d'oeuvres and tea. Best part: It's free, but reservations are recommended. The event is Saturday from 2 to 4 p.m. Macy's Court, Tysons Corner Center, 1961 Chain Bridge Rd., McLean. To RSVP, call 703-893-9401 or e-mail bethany.zorn@macerich.com
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The Washington Post
October 2, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
Obama, McCain Stand United In Pressing Hard for Rescue
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A14
LENGTH: 876 words
After months on the campaign trail and countless missed votes, Barack Obama and John McCain returned to the Capitol last night as just two of 99 senators voting on a massive Wall Street rescue plan, but their forceful advocacy for the controversial measure may help push it into law.
Obama delivered an unflinching defense yesterday of a bill that could not muster majority support in the House just two days earlier. Four hours later, both men cast their votes for its passage.
Voters now face the choice between two major-party candidates who stand arm-in-arm on one of the most far-reaching and controversial economic interventions since the Depression.
"There's no real separation between Wall Street and Main Street," Obama said from the obscured corner desk of a junior senator. "There's only the road we're traveling on as Americans, and we will rise or fall on that journey as one nation and as one people. I know that many Americans are feeling anxiety right now, about their jobs, about their homes, about their life savings. But I also know this: that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis. We always have."
McCain declined to speak on the measure, leaving his Arlington condominium after 7 p.m. to make a belated, 8:20 entrance when most other senators had already reached the floor.
Over the past weeks, as the investment banking industry collapsed and financial institutions were shuttered one by one, McCain and Obama had taken turns blaming and mocking each other. McCain accused Obama of standing on the sidelines and shirking a leadership role. Obama personally confronted McCain at a tense White House meeting. Obama's campaign charged that McCain's effort last week to insert himself into the negotiations was a political stunt that proved more disruptive than constructive.
But since Monday's House rejection and the 778-point, one-day plunge of the Dow Jones industrial average, such recriminations have diminished. "There will be time to punish those who set this fire," Obama said from the Senate floor. "But now is not the time. . . . Right now, we want to put out that fire."
Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), an influential House conservative, said last night he had spoken to McCain three times since Saturday. After voting no on Monday, he said, "I'm inclined to hold my nose and vote yes." Obama, in a brief Capitol interview, said he too had spoken to "quite a few" House members, although the only name he offered was that of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
Last night's bipartisan harmony capped a day of public unity. At an Obama rally in La Crosse, Wis., and a McCain event in Independence, Mo., the two candidates struck remarkably similar tones, speaking of the crisis as a time for unity and national purpose -- and a call for far more fiscal discipline in the future.
"The constant partisan rancor that stops us from solving these problems in Washington isn't a cause, it's a symptom. It's what happens when people go to Washington to work for themselves and not you," McCain said at the Truman Library.
"This financial crisis is a direct result of the greed and irresponsibility that has dominated Washington and Wall Street for years," Obama told a large crowd in western Wisconsin. "But while there is plenty of blame to go around and many in Washington and on Wall Street who deserve it, all of us now have a responsibility to solve this crisis, because it affects the financial well-being of every single American."
McCain even released an advertisement that decries partisanship in both parties, never mentions Obama and lifts one of his opponent's signature lines: "We're the United States of America."
"What a week," McCain says, speaking into the camera. "Democrats blamed Republicans. Republicans blamed Democrats. We're the United States of America. It shouldn't take a crisis to pull us together."
On the Senate floor, Obama crossed the well to the Republican side to reach his hand out to McCain and mouth, "Good to see you." McCain looked up briefly from his conversation with Sens. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) to give his rival a curt handshake.
On the airwaves and through the candidates' surrogates, the fierce presidential campaign raged on. Obama released a new advertisement mocking McCain's claim to be a fiscal disciplinarian, rapping him for tax cut proposals that he said would stack $3 trillion onto the federal debt, along with $1 trillion from a plan to add private investment accounts to Social Security. McCain has spoken in favor of such accounts, but he has no detailed plan.
The Republican National Committee came the closest to actually blaming Obama for the crisis, with an ad intoning: "Wall Street squanders our money, and Washington is forced to bail them out with, you guessed it, our money. Can it get any worse? Under Barack Obama's plan, the government would spend a trillion dollars more, even after the bailout."
That partisan ill will was evident in the Senate chamber. Obama entered at the tail end of a speech by Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), who then left the chamber. Democratic senators filed in, to listen, then mob the candidate with handshakes, hugs and good wishes. Only one Republican, Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, sat on the other side of the aisle.
LOAD-DATE: October 2, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Nikki Kahn -- The Washington Post; Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leaves the Capitol after voting on the $700 billion rescue plan. He and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) were among the 74 senators who voted to pass the measure. Twenty-five voted against it.
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The Washington Post
October 2, 2008 Thursday
Every Edition
Blogging the Way to Election Day
BYLINE: Virginia Notebook
SECTION: EXTRAS; Pg. LZ04
LENGTH: 1111 words
This week's Notebook is a compilation of items from The Washington Post's "Virginia Politics" blog. To get your fix throughout the week, check out http://blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics or http://washingtonpost.com/vablog.
Food Workers Leave a Tip
The United Food and Commercial Workers Union donated $100,000 to the Virginia Democratic Party, the largest contribution it has received from an individual, business or union in a decade, according to the State Board of Elections and the Virginia Public Access Project.
The $100,000 was credited to the party's state account, meaning it cannot be used to influence this year's presidential or congressional races. But the donation allows the state party to pay its operating costs so it can focus additional resources on raising money for its federal account, which can be used to support Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and congressional candidates.
"We are happy to have their support, and we appreciate a shared interest in working families' conditions in Virginia," said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Virginia Democratic Party.
The United Food and Commercial Workers has become one of the biggest financial backers of the state Democratic Party, excluding contributions from candidate and national party committees, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. The union fell just short of the largest single contribution collected by the party in modern times. In 1997, the AFL-CIO gave the state party a $110,000 contribution.
The food workers' donation will certainly become fodder for Virginia Republicans, who have long argued that state Democrats are too closely aligned with organized labor.
The party also collected $10,000 from Al Dwoskin, founder and chief executive of a Fairfax County-based real estate corporation, and $25,000 from Hassan Nemazee, an Iranian-born investment banker from New York, according to the State Board of Elections. Nemazee, a major Democratic donor, served as co-chairman of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-N.Y.) fundraising effort during her presidential campaign.
-- TIM CRAIG
Mining Votes for Coal
Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) nveiled a radio ad accusing Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama of opposing clean coal technology in states such as Virginia, where thousands of jobs rely on the industry.
Former attorney general Jerry Kilgore (R) said the ad calls attention to Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s contradictory statements on supporting the coal industry while campaigning in southwest Virginia and other parts of the country.
"It's very alarming," Kilgore said. "This type of doublespeak has been caught onto by southwest Virginians and Virginians."
The focus on coal comes amid signs that Obama is making some inroads in southwest Virginia. A Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that 36 percent of likely voters in the western part of the state support Obama.
-- ANITA KUMAR
Kaine Pledges to Stay Put
Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) pledged to remain governor through his term even if Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama wins the presidency and offers him a job in the Cabinet.
"Absolutely," he said on his monthly call-in show on WTOP (103.5 FM) radio. "I'm going to stay as governor all the way through January 2010."
Kaine, co-chairman of Obama's national campaign, had been seriously considered as a running mate for the Illinois senator. The two became friends after they campaigned together during Kaine's 2005 gubernatorial race, and Kaine has returned the favor, stumping nationwide for Obama over the past year.
"If I was asked to be vice president . . . I would have said yes," Kaine said. But, he said, he plans to remain a volunteer if Obama wins. "I hope I can be helpful," he said.
-- ANITA KUMAR
Of D.C., in D.C. but for Va.
D.C. Mayor Adrian M. Fenty (D) opened a local headquarters for Sen. Barack Obama in the District.
It might seem like Obama's campaign has gone overboard when it comes to opening offices. Dating to 1968, no Democratic presidential nominee has received less than 75 percent of the vote in the District. Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) carried the District with 89 percent of the vote in his 2004 race against President Bush.
But Obama's D.C. office will be focused on helping his campaign efforts across the Potomac River in Virginia.
Fenty and D.C. Council members Kwame R. Brown (D-At Large) and Muriel Bowser (D-Ward 4) urged 200 volunteers at the office opening to get to Virginia to help knock on doors. Obama offices and Democratic committees in the heavily Democratic Maryland suburbs are also geared up to help turn out the vote in Virginia this year.
The D.C. office, in the 200 block of Florida Avenue NW near Eighth Street, will also have buttons, bumper stickers and yard signs for sale.
-- DAVID NAKAMURA and TIM CRAIG
Acting Like a Democrat
Jason Alexander, an actor best known as perpetually down-in-the-dumps George Costanza on the TV show "Seinfeld," has weighed into Virginia's U.S. Senate race by helping former Democratic governor Mark R. Warner raise money.
"If you thought Seinfeld was a show about nothing, you should check out Congress," Alexander said in a fundraising letter e-mailed to supporters. "I can't remember such a lack of productivity since the summer of George."
The letter turns more serious after that. Alexander asks for donations, as small as $5, and talks about why he is throwing his "full support" behind Warner in his race against former governor James S. Gilmore III.
"He hasn't just talked a good game," Alexander said of Warner. "As governor, he actually walked the walk by working across the aisle to deliver results and turn Virginia's struggling economy around."
The two met when Warner was traveling the country to gauge interest in a possible presidential run, Warner spokesman Kevin Hall said.
-- ANITA KUMAR
The Issue Isn't Abortion
Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama are making inroads into their opponent's political base in Virginia when it comes to abortion.
In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 60 percent of registered voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Thirty-eight percent said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. Voter attitudes on the issue have essentially remained unchanged since 2000, according to previous Washington Post Virginia polls.
McCain disagrees with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion. Obama supports Roe v. Wade.
But 30 percent of voters who want to outlaw abortions said they also support Obama. Thirty-three percent of those who favor abortion rights said they back McCain.
-- TIM CRAIG
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Washingtonpost.com
October 2, 2008 Thursday 10:30 PM EST
Analysis: Vice Presidential Debate
BYLINE: Robert G. Kaiser, Washington Post Associate Editor, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 5907 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Thursday, Oct. 2 at 10:30 p.m. ET to critique the performances of Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin in their vice presidential debate.
Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Thursday, Oct. 2 at 10:30 p.m. ET to critique the performances of Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin in their vice presidential debate.
The transcript follows.
____________________
Robert G. Kaiser: Good evening. I have to say at the outset, this was really fun. I love the fact that a political event could create real excitement. I certainly felt it tonight.
This debate followed three dreadful weeks for Sarah Palin -- she was not starting afresh here. So an important question is, did her performance tonight add gravitas to her public persona? Did she come out of this debate looking more like a political heavyweight than she did on CBS News over the last two weeks, and on Saturday Night Live? After this debate, does she look more like a plausible president?
Was it smart of her handlers to encourage her to call Obama naïve and dangerous by proposing to deal directly, diplomatically, with dictators? Does she sound like an expert judge of such matters?
No doubt she reminded some of the people who were enthusiastic about her selection as McCain's running mate of what they liked about her. We saw again the feisty, smiling, engaging Sarah Palin tonight. She probably re-invigorated the Republican base. But did she make progress with the independents who, the polls indicate, turned sharply against her during September? I certainly don't know, and I eagerly await the evidence we'll get in the days ahead.
This was first of all Palin's night, her big test, and I hope you'll tell me how you think she did. But it was also a test of Joe Biden, famous for long-windedness, master of the gaffe on many previous occasions. I covered the Senate 30 years ago, when Biden was young and green, and I've watched him ever since. For me he had a good night tonight -- disciplined, on message, and effective in criticizing John McCain. He did show gravitas, I thought -- the benefit of three decades in the Senate. But, as always, my reactions are insignificant -- what were yours?
_______________________
Philadelphia: Bob, the thing I noticed most with Gov. Palin was that her answers generally were acceptable, but she acted as though she was reading from a script, i.e. her answers often had nothing to do with the question she was asked, and she just recited talking points.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. I welcome such comments from everyone, and will post as many as I can.
_______________________
Minneapolis: Ms. Ifill was a terrible moderator -- her questions were not crisp, there was no follow-up, no control. The entire event made a mockery of the concept of a "debate." Your thoughts?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think you're being too harsh, but I agree that she didn't have full control.
_______________________
Ottawa, Ontario: She was totally incoherent in those interviews. Tonight she was talking in sentences and sounding frightening faux-reasonable. What happened? Will her performance play to the "heartland"?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. What happened, I think, was that she realized she could ignore questions and say what she had practiced saying, which she did.
_______________________
I couldn't bear to watch...: Summary please? Thank you.
washingtonpost.com: Biden and Palin Square Off On The Economy and Foreign Policy (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 2)
Robert G. Kaiser: Read the story...
_______________________
Boston: Palin said nothing concrete. She couldn't produce any evidence and avoided answering questions that she struggled with. I think Biden won the debate hands down.
Robert G. Kaiser: I think this was a significant shortcoming in her performance. There were no real arguments from her, many assertions.
_______________________
London: Mr. Kaiser, I stayed up way past my bedtime to listen to this debate, and what I heard was not reassuring. I'm sure you know that Europe is appalled at the choice of Gov. Palin as Sen. McCain's running mate, and nothing she said tonight is going to change this view. I'm sure she's a lovely person who would make a lovely neighbor, but she's simply not qualified to be president. We still are having major problems with your re-election of the current president, but this would make things substantially worse.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for staying up and sharing your sense of it. You will see, in my opening comment above, that I too wonder if she reassured people who already had doubts about her.
_______________________
Washington: Bob, do you think Gwen was a little cowed by the early criticism that she was in the tank for Obama? So many of Biden and Palin's responses begged for follow-ups, but there was really nothing.
Robert G. Kaiser: I know Gwen, who used to work at The Post, and I am confident she was not cowed.
_______________________
Reston, Va.: Biden had the right touch -- not terribly dominant, but aggressive enough to deflect Palin's punches. What about his choke? Do you think this would be seen as favorable or unfavorable?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Lord knows how the choke played. I think it seemed very real.
_______________________
Gaithersburg, Md.: Answering questions as she felt like it -- dangerous strategy or brilliant spoiler? Will the voters buy into that kind of evasion?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question.
_______________________
Grand Rapids, Mich.: To me, Sarah Palin was blah. Talking points, no real substance -- very disappointing. I ended up liking Biden, which was pretty shocking. He seemed pretty straight.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
_______________________
Bethesda, Md.: This says more about me than about the debaters, but I'm a little disappointed that I thought they both did fine. No major gaffes or blunders. Sen. Biden stuck to the point more than usual. I don't think Gov. Palin changed many minds, but she didn't come across as a fluffy airhead the way she did in the Couric interviews. Everyone who was waiting for something major now has to wait longer (this is not necessarily a bad thing).
Robert G. Kaiser: What does it say about you? That you're fair-minded? Not an egregious sin.
_______________________
Athens, Ga.: I thought they both did well. I was impressed. Now, if only the presidential candidates were watching, and show the same passion and skill as these two.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Blairsville, Pa.: Did you get the feeling that Sarah Palin really didn't answer many of the questions she was asked? She danced around many questions and kept referring back to Alaska and energy, even if she wasn't asked anything that had to do with energy.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, if we read the transcript tomorrow, we will see how often Palin did her own thing, without being intimidated by the actual content of the questions. This is a tried and true debate tactic; candidates have used it for as long as we have had debates. Does it work?
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Phoenix: I am a Republican, so please factor that into my comments. I just want to say that I am very, very proud of Sarah Palin tonight. After the tough couple of weeks that she's had, I thought it showed real guts to put in such a strong performance. She certainly removed any lingering doubts I had about voting for John McCain in November.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this.
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Washington: Bob, do you think there was any kind of game-changer tonight, or did both sides do what they needed to do and that was it?
Robert G. Kaiser: No game-changer. I think it's important to recognize that the game has turned against McCain since the financial crisis burst upon us. His decision today to give up on Michigan was a very telling moment in this campaign, and an ominous sign, as The Fix has said already. I hope we can link to him here.
My sense is that Palin did not really "do what she needed to do" tonight, because I doubt that she managed to radically alter perceptions of her in this debate. But I could be wrong!
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washingtonpost.com: The Fix: McCain's Move Out of Michigan, and What It Means (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 2)
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Ottawa, Ontario: "What happened, I think, was that she realized she could ignore questions and say what she had practiced saying, which she did." Actually, someone who debated her in Alaska said that's what she did there. ... What I'm wondering is if the, urk, Joe Six-Pack will see that or will buy the illusion of straight-talking. I guess we'll see...
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes we will.
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New York: As for the negatives: Biden seemed less energetic but progressively warmed up. Some of his responses were data-heavy. He did have some poignant statements, particularly when he spoke about his background/family and his connections with ordinary citizens.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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New York: Transcript, please. I'd like a word count on Sarah Palin's use of "also."
washingtonpost.com: We'll have a transcript -- interlaced with video clips and point-by-point analysis -- on the site tomorrow morning, at this Web page.
Robert G. Kaiser: I too look forward to the transcript. Here's where to find it -- in the morning.
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Sterling, Va.: My goodness, Palin's delivery is one big run-on sentence. Anyone have a count how many times she completed each statement with the word "also"? I'm embarrassed that a major political party thinks it can trot out someone so inexperienced.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Washington: Palin did not look like an idiot. Biden did not look like a condescending jerk. Hooray, everyone's a winner! I hate how completely scripted and practiced this entire thing has become. The president of the United States does not always get to practice for days to answer questions. I want to know how these people will act in a crisis, not how they will read the State of Union.
Robert G. Kaiser: Good comment -- thanks.
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Liberty, Mo.: Who was Gov. Palin trying to attract through her references to Ronald Reagan? What do you make of her interpretation (flexibility) of the vice president's role? I am not a Palin supporter. I didn't hear much substance in her remarks this evening.
Robert G. Kaiser: Reagan is an icon for Republicans -- not, interestingly, for others, according to polls now.
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Atlanta: As a teacher, Gov. Palin's answers reminded me of one of the problems with No Child Left Behind. Some teachers will teach the answers to the test. It seems as though this was a test for her. She memorized answers, but it was for the wrong version of the standardized test. That did not seem to stop her from reciting the answers she memorized.
Robert G. Kaiser: Pointed comment! Interesting, too.
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Chantilly, Va.: Meh. They both seemed to do okay, and they both mostly just played to their respective strengths. It is hard to see this changing the race in any significant way.
Robert G. Kaiser: I think you're right, and I think that's bad news for the Republicans.
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Santa Rosa, Calif.: She's got moxie and confidence in spades -- I'll give her that -- but otherwise seems mostly bluster and bluff and not a lot of real substance based on lengthy experience. One thing I noted that was good: She looked directly at the camera as though addressing each of us. It appears Bidden picked up on this and followed suit -- good move.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Good observations, though it seemed to me that Biden was also looking at the camera a lot from the first minutes of the debate.
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa: I think Palin benefited from the format of the debate -- there was not much opportunity for follow-up questions. Her comment on the "flexibility" of the office of vice president was really frightening; I hope she is asked to elaborate on what she meant. Biden started out strong, but got a little emotional and negative at the end, which probably hurt him a little.
Robert G. Kaiser: We have a lot of good arm-chair pundits tonight. Thanks.
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Plano, Texas: I was wondering if you noticed Biden's significant usage of the word "I." I feel as if he came off as arrogant and condescending. Do you think that Obama and Biden's main downfall is Biden's ego? Thanks for your thoughts!
Robert G. Kaiser: Anyone running for president or vice president has a huge ego -- this is one of the key lessons I have taken from my 45 years in the newspaper business and watching these people run. I don't think there's any "downfall" here.
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Alexandria, Va.: As an Obama supporter, I was relieved at Biden's performance tonight -- he was disciplined, serious and human. I was grudgingly impressed with Gov, Palin. Win or lose in November, she has a future in national Republican politics.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Hamburg, Wis.: Biden looked like a tired, old man.
Robert G. Kaiser: I think Biden and I are almost exactly the same age, so I am going to withhold any comment on this one.
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Anonymous: Mr. Kaiser: If Iran or North Korea ratchets up the conflict and Palin doesn't know the answer, she can't decide not to deal with the problem (answer the question) and say "I know energy." Does ignoring debate questions mean she'll ignore future problems?
Robert G. Kaiser: No it does not. She had a very specific assignment from her handlers tonight: stay on message, mention McCain as often as possible, attack the Democratic ticket, and avoid any topic that makes you uncomfortable -- I'd bet those were key ingredients in her instructions. And I think she followed them.
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New York: I am a Democrat, but I thought both candidates did well. They both attempted to and succeeded in addressing the concerns of their respective parties. What I can't get a sense of is which of the two candidates will appeal to independents. I would love to hear the opinion of that elusive group.
Robert G. Kaiser: CBS had a group of uncommitted voters, including a disproportionate number of people who said they had a slight preference for Obama-Biden, watching tonight with those gizmos that register their reactions. According to this group, Biden won the debate.
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Vallejo, Calif.: The things Palin pushed hardest -- continued presence in Iraq, drilling our way out of the energy crisis -- are positions the voters already have decided aren't working. Too much of what she had to say was clearly scripted and often pulled out of a bag of answers like refrigerator magnets and stuck on the screen regardless of the question.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you, Vallejo.
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McLean, Va.: First, I hated the format, which turned the first half of the debate into a muddled mess ("I want to go back to the last question before I answer this one") and kept things at a pretty superficial level. I think Palin did fine if you didn't actually listen to her answers. I also think she'll get clobbered by Tina Fey this week on Saturday Night Live for the winks and the "darn rights." I personally think it's a sad day for our democracy when people are impressed with a vice presidential candidate because they're spunky, decide not to answer the questions asked of them or plan to avoid "the filter of the media." But maybe I just expect a little too much of our elected officials.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. As today's good story on disquiet among voters about Palin made clear, a lot of people have higher expectations for their leaders. As you'll read here, our new poll shows that by 60 percent to 35 percent, Americans do not think she has the experience needed to be an effective president. Tina Fey had something to do with this, of course, but Palin herself had more to do with it, I suspect.
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washingtonpost.com: Skepticism of Palin Growing, Poll Finds (Post, Oct. 2)
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San Diego: So who won? Drudgereport says 75 percent Palin; MSNBC says 78 percent Biden. Where's the middle ground?
Robert G. Kaiser: "Winning" is not a clearcut concept in these debates. Look at last Friday: the pundits seemed to share a strong consensus that the Obama-McCain debate was a tie; some thought McCain prevailed. But all the polling I've seen this week suggests that Obama not only won the debate but did his campaign a great deal of good (with help of course from the financial crisis) by his performance on Friday.
So, be patient. It will take a few days at least to get a clearer sense of 1) who won and more important 2) how big an impact the debate had.
To repeat myself, the only big impact I think is possible here would be if Palin was able to substantially change that 60-35 conclusion that she isn't ready to be president.
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Brisbane, Australia: I thought that Gov. Palin did very well in the debate by appealing to the emotional side of Americans. But is this enough? Was there any substance in her answers?
Robert G. Kaiser: Appealing to the emotions is not enough, I suspect, but nor can I be certain that that's all she did.
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Regina, Canada: How can Palin emphasize her so-called energy expertise while suggesting that you don't really need to know what caused climate change in order to fix it? Her answer to this issue, and to the few other issues that she actually did address, were wishy-washy -- and if boiled-down, empty. Biden was dry and fact/number/data-heavy as mentioned, and while most people won't understand every issue he touched on, at least he came across as being informed and knowledgeable.
If we have indeed entered an era where the average person can't be expected to understand all the issues facing the country, we need to at least be able to leave the big decisions to people who do. I think Biden comes across as someone who gets it, while Palin comes across as someone who barely understands the big issues any better than any other average American. Any hockey mom with a college education could have done as well with the coaching Palin's had.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for an interesting comment.
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Germantown, Md.: I got to know Sen. Biden better, and appreciated the chance. I thought Gov. Palin did far better on foreign policy questions than Tina Fey led me to believe she would; I'm sure the debate tactics contributed to that, but I thought she showed well. They both scored points with me with their economy answers. I have to say, I'm still undecided.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this.
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Alexandria, Va.: Wow! Gov. Palin had a remarkable debate -- honest, homespun (ooh, that is a big negative among those with gravitas, but I like it). I wish she were the presidential nominee and McCain the running mate. Oh well, far better than an angry old man (I am one, so I know one) as vice president and an inexperienced, say-anything-to-get-elected newbie. I would be totally comfortable with Gov. Palin as president after hearing this debate. She is likely to listen to advisers and take a reasoned approach to problems. Obama is likely to think he has all the answers (watch his debate performance) and run us off the road into disaster. Go Sarah!
Robert G. Kaiser: "Wow!" is right.
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Weston, Conn.: Why is it that Gov Palin and Republicans believe that her experience in a state with a smaller population than Hartford, Conn., and no tough budget decisions, is relevant? Joe talking about family touched my heart -- that was the most real moment of the whole debate.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you, Weston.
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Toronto: I thought Biden was irked by the constant needling at his record, and talked a little fast, which undermined the gravitas factor. Palin seemed unusually polished early on, but had rather a weak finish, practically disappearing into rote script, especially considering the Biden choke-up. I was disappointed that Biden rarely responded to her, but instead focused on McCain; I've experienced a rare sense of schadenfreude in the past five weeks at the Republican ticket's expense and I was hoping that it would reach its zenith with this debate.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Columbia, S.C.: Bravo, Sarah Palin! She was quite effective in showcasing Biden and Obama as Washington insiders and she and McCain as Washington reformers. Her "say it ain't so, Joe" made Biden look ineffective in trying to associate McCain with Bush. Actually, Biden looked as if he was quite charmed by her in the way he smiled at her.
Robert G. Kaiser: I bet you a dime that Biden practiced that smile all week long.
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Puckeridge, England: To aid Sarah Palin: Experience in foreign affairs isn't really necessary. What did John McCain learn from all those trips abroad and all those meetings with foreigners? He still didn't know enough not to vote to go to invade iraq.
Robert G. Kaiser: Hmmm.
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For what it's worth: Watching the CNN coverage with their tracking of a handful of undecided voters, when Palin talked about Iraq and winning there, the line was dead flat. No response. When Biden talked about Obama having the only real plan for getting us out of Iraq, the responses went off the charts in a positive direction. I hope the pundits keep this in mind -- that much of the American public have given up on Iraq. They want out.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. The CBS group reacted similarly. I think your point is an important one.
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Portland, Ore.: What is your reaction to Palin's comment that she "wasn't necessarily going to answer the questions in the way that Gwen or Sen. Biden wanted her to"? I think there is something to be said for following the rules of a debate. While both vice presidential candidates seemed to stick to their time limits, only Biden seemed to truly answer the questions directly and with substance.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. I too remarked on that answer, which was obviously a bit of preemptive defense. She and her handlers knew from the outset what she was supposed to say, and she planned to say it whether or not it answered Ifill's questions. Or so it seemed. And as I said earlier, this is hardly a new debate tactic.
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Bethesda, Md.: Did I hear correctly? Did she say the Constitution left room for interpretation of the vice president's role; that she did not disagree with Cheney's assertion that he was not necessarily part of the executive branch?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes you did.
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Addison, Ill.: Haven't even the undecideds heard these talking points already? Was there anything that she said that was memorable as a game-changer? Any new points? Or have I just heard everything because I'm a news junky?
Robert G. Kaiser: As I said earlier, I saw nothing remotely like a game changer here tonight. But that's a lot to ask of a vice presidential debate.
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Dallas: I thought she was struggling mightily, but her ability to continue to spout those talking points covered it somewhat. I laughed when she messed up one of them, "toxic mess on Main Street that is affecting Wall Street." And her reference to long-dead Civil War general McClellan was rather entertaining. But, as Maura Liason said it on Sunday (Fox News, no less), anything more than "babbling incoherently" for her was a success.
Robert G. Kaiser: You misunderstood McClellan, who is our general today in Afghanistan. No relation to Lincoln's McClellan I don't think.
I don't think I agree with Maura. Palin is in a deep hole now; most Americans don't think she is qualified to be president. To do well tonight she had to change that perception. As I've said, I don't know if she did that, but I tend to doubt it.
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Seattle: As a woman, I think Biden handled his interactions with Palin really well and struck just the right tone -- not condescending, not overly cautious. The smile was genuine, I think! He spoke to her a long time after the debate, when the families were on stage -- I wonder what they talked about. She listened, but didn't engage as much as he did.
Robert G. Kaiser: I agree with you, and suspect that Obama and his inner circle are very relieved. Their guy did not fall into the many pitfalls that theoretically at least were in his path.
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Madrid, Spain: It is incredible that we still do not have an answer from McCain or tonight from Palin about whether they will talk to the Spanish government if elected. It is scary what type of foreign policy will emerge from a McCain-Palin administration. If you cannot talk to a EU nation and a NATO member, how in the heck are you going to start using diplomacy with countries like Iran?
Robert G. Kaiser: In fairness, McCain has made it clear that he muffed that question and didn't mean to rule out meeting with your prime minister. But he couldn't come right out with a confession of error either.
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Fairfax, Va.: How hard do you think Biden was biting his tongue when Palin referred to the commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan as McClellan, instead of McKiernan -- not once, but twice?
Robert G. Kaiser: Well, I just made the same mistake above! Sorry about that.
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Florence, Mass.: I think Palin was a little too flip with her "[aw shucks] we made some blunders in Iraq." Obviously, those blunders cost lives. Her folksiness can backfire on her if she isn't careful.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Scotland: She put me in mind of a female version of Peter Sellers in the movie "Being There."
Robert G. Kaiser: I'd say that's most unfair. Sellers barely spoke a word in that part, if memory serves (and perhaps it doesn't, I should admit, but I'm pretty sure of this). She did not lack for words.
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New York: Am I alone in finding it ominous that Gov. Plain was not able to cite a single occasion on which she fundamentally changed the way that she thought about an important issue?
Robert G. Kaiser: Don't know how much company you have, but I have a powerful hunch that all we really learned from that answer is, it was a question that Palin's trainers had not anticipated, so she had nothing ready to use to answer it.
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Boston: The aren't-I-adorable voice that Palin got whenever she started getting out of her depth was extremely annoying to me. Luckily, I was also watching CNN's gizmo lines and was happy to see the panel agreed.
Robert G. Kaiser: Nothing like finding your own views confirmed, is there?
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Las Vegas: I'm dissapointed that Biden didn't mention that McCain wants to tax employees for insurance benefits paid by their employers. This is a huge tax for all working people at the same time McCain wants to give huge tax breaks for corporations and rich people. If he mentioned it, I apologize, but I did not catch it.
Robert G. Kaiser: Well he did mention it, in some detail.
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State College, Pa.: I'm a registered independent leaning toward Obama ... if I had any questions, this solidified it for me. Palin said both she and McCain are "mavericks" -- I don't think we need both the president and vice president shooting from the hip. I think that Biden showed that Obama/Biden is a much safer choice -- especially when I have a 2-year-old boy whom I don't want to have to send to Iraq in 18 years!
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Portland, Ore.: Did Sarah Palin really say to a guy whose first wife died in an accident that his second wife's "reward is in heaven"?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think she was using an old saying about our underpaid teachers (like Jill Biden), whose rewards on this earth are rather paltry...
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State College, Pa.: I think that they both did rather poorly. Biden made several blatant lies about Iraq and clean coal, but he had more "real" responses than Palin (I particularly liked his response about Pakistan). Both candidates, in my mind, spent too much time reiterating their stump speeches. I felt like I heard about an hour of fluff, and then 20-30 minutes of real interesting stuff.
Robert G. Kaiser: Okay.
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Washington: As one who was hoping Gov. Palin would fall on her face (again), I have to note that she did all right, though her importuning appeals to the "American people," as she kept saying, were equal parts bluster and folksy maneuvering. It pains me to realize that her folksiness probably plays well to many voters. As for me, I just wonder why she can't enunciate the "g" that ends her participles, and why she can't segment thoughts into sentences that begin and end.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Arlington, Va.: I think one of the greatest failures of Palin's answers tonight was when asked if, with the change in the economy, there was anything that has been promised by the campaign that might need to be reconsidered. First off she tried to avoid the question, but wasn't allowed -- but to flat out say we wouldn't have to change anything is a dangerous answer. She could have talked about reprioritizing, etc. -- something aside from nothing.
Robert G. Kaiser: Given that that was Jim Lehrer's first question last Friday, I was surprised she didn't have an answer ready for it -- as Biden did.
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Cheshire, Conn.: Is it me or did Sarah Palin not understand what "Achilles Heel" means? Not your positive attributes, your negative ones.
Robert G. Kaiser: We have to check the transcript, but I had the same reaction you did. She also, I think, misunderstood Gwen's question about nuclear weapons.
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Los Angeles: I have the feeling that a lot of people made up their minds in the past ten days, to the detriment of the McCain campaign. Palin didn't go down in flames, but her performance was still like a caricature of herself. She showed she can spew talking points, but not that she can think on her feet. Biden wins.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you. Interesting comment.
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Nashville, Tenn.: Palin held her own -- not a lot of substance, but then again I'd like the McCain strategy for change even if a monkey was preaching it. It's time for a change, and Biden's not it. I'll take real-life experience and common sense over political experience any day. It's time to take the politicians out of politics and put in people who know what they're doing (or at least know how to find and ask people who do).
Robert G. Kaiser: Pardon me if this seems rude -- I of course don't know you from Adam or Eve. But this kind of remark drives me crazy. Why should politics not be practiced by politicians? Why should we think that "political experience" is a bad thing for a politician to have? Thomas Jefferson and George Washington were politicians; Abe Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt were too. This is a fact; governments are run by politicians. If they hadn't had extensive political experience, our country would in all likelihood not be anything like what it is today. Or so it seems to me.
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Flower Mound, Texas: Do you think the greatest success for both of them was in following the first rule of "first, do no harm"?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, but as indicated above, I think Palin had to do a lot more than that to help her ticket tonight.
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Anonymous: How many questions are you receiving tonight?
washingtonpost.com: About 600 so far.
Robert G. Kaiser: Here's the answer from my estimable producer Chris Hopkins.
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Chicago: I'm one of those students watching for extra credit that Palin spoke of. Palin spent the majority of the time defending McCain (rather than on the offensive side) and evading questions. This is a matter of business, and she didn't provide viewers with anything substantial. She may be feisty, but I wouldn't call her the pitbull America needs to run the country.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Hope you get an A.
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Kansas City, Kan.: My elementary school boys (who have signed up for a debate club and watched the debate) were shocked and dismayed at Sarah Palin's use of colloquial slang "darn it," "doggone it," "heck" (these are words they are taught not to use even in regular speech)! I am left with an image of her rolling her eyes and saying "there you go again, Putin." Eye-rolling is considered rude by most families I know, and it saddens me that this kind of behavior is legitimized in a national debate. I fail to understand how her unprofessional demeanor passes for good style.
Robert G. Kaiser: What an interesting comment. Thank you for it. You remind us all how diverse a country we live in. Obviously, the McCain aides prepping Palin tonight told her to do just what annoyed you.
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Los Angeles: My guess is that Palin's quip about teachers' reward being in heaven will be featured in an Obama ad pointing out that improving our education system starts with rewarding teachers better here on Earth.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.
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Arnold, Md.: Some noticed, as I did, that Palin occasionally referred to her notes; however Biden did about the same amount of note-reading.
Robert G. Kaiser: Under the rules, I believe, neither could bring notes into the debate, so the notes referred to were made while it was going on.
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Cartersville, Ga.: Bob, I have been glancing at several of the large newspapers and their stories. Most of them mention that Palin seemed to hold her own. However, when I read some of the online conversations like this one, it sounds as though people felt that she provided canned answers and/or didn't answer questions at all.
Robert G. Kaiser: I haven't been able to read the stories, but I refer again to the "heavyweight" evaluation of the McCain-Obama debate on Friday, which I thought was wrong then, and which I think polls now confirm was wrong. Obama won the debate and did himself a lot of good, though the stories called it a tie and a lot of pundits thought McCain won.
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New Orleans: How could the moderator get Palin to actually answer the questions (really answer what she is asked)?!
Robert G. Kaiser: This will be the last one tonight. We'll be back next Tuesday for the next Obama-McCain encounter.
These debates are seriously imperfect. Gwen had no good choices when the candidates wandered off the reservation. There was an agreement on "five minute segments"; I suspect it was violated more often than it was respected. But only by making a real pain in the neck of herself could she have "forced" answers to her questions, and that is simply not her style.
Sometimes I wish we could import some of the BBC's splendid inquisitors to anchor a debate here. I nominate James Naughtie, my favorite, who is merciless when questioning British politicians on his Today show every morning on BBC radio. By comparison our media are a tribe of wimps -- polite wimps to be sure, but, well, less interesting.
Again, thanks for the good participation from all. Good night.
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Washingtonpost.com
October 2, 2008 Thursday 2:23 PM EST
Betting on the Futures of Politics;
Prediction Markets Can Be Powerful -- and Often Profitable
BYLINE: Sarah Lovenheim, washingtonpost.com Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 1344 words
HIGHLIGHT: Last September, Bethan Brome Lilja, a Massachusetts commercial photographer, made a bet of sorts that seemed absurd at the time: that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would win the Republican presidential nomination.
Last September, Bethan Brome Lilja, a Massachusetts commercial photographer, made a bet of sorts that seemed absurd at the time: that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would win the Republican presidential nomination.
Although McCain's campaign organization had imploded that summer and his polling numbers were near rock-bottom, Lilja purchased about $75,000 worth of contracts on an unusual futures market called Intrade speculating that McCain would pull out the nomination. She also wagered that former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani would lose his campaign for the GOP nomination, despite polls showing him very much in the running.
Today, Lilja's high-stakes political speculation looks prescient, and she has made more than $300,000 off the market -- roughly four times the amount she initially invested.
Intrade, a nine-year-old financial exchange based in Dublin, Ireland, invites investors worldwide to trade contracts tied to political outcomes. The exchange operates much like a financial futures market, only profits are contingent on the result of a political race or an electoral map shakeup, rather than a company's growth. The price of a contract indicates how likely investors consider an outcome.
For example, a contract tied to the prediction that McCain will win the election selling for 47 points means that investors believe McCain has a 47 percent chance of winning the election. On Intrade, a point represents 10 cents, so one share of stock in McCain is worth $4.70. Confident investors place tens of thousands of dollars or more on one contract.
Prediction markets have been around in one form or another for decades. Throughout the 2008 presidential campaign, Intrade has generated nearly $50 million worth of futures contracts. Betfair, a market based in the United Kingdom also attracts millions of dollars in bets. Its Web site predicts nearly $70 million will be invested on the U.S. presidential election.
U.S. law prevents predictive trading nationwide, with the exception of the Iowa Electronic Markets which began as an academic research tool and today caps investments at $500.
The markets at times have worked as an uncanny bellwether of political trends -- in some cases proving to be a more accurate indicator of political trends than the pundits or the polls.
A few days before Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama (Ill.) announced his selection of Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) as his running mate on Aug. 23, a contract linked to the prospects of Biden being picked jumped 300 percent on Intrade. Shortly before Obama picked Biden, Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Gov. Tim Kaine (Va.) were on pundits' short lists.
And as soon as a blog leaked news of a jet landing in Anchorage to pick up Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin the day before McCain announced his selection, a contract tied to Palin being picked as McCain's running mate soared in market value. Market expert Justin Wolfers, an associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania, noted "That was picked up in seconds on Intrade." The mainstream news media didn't pick up the speculation on Palin until several hours later.
Investors drawn to this form of speculation "have to be a little savvy," said economist Dean Karlan of Yale University. "At the end of the day it's a security," he said.
And to do well in this form of speculation, experts say, investors have to check their political leanings at the door and invest money strictly based on who they think will win or lose. Lilja, a Democrat, will only bet on Republican outcomes. "I don't want my own personal bias to get in the way," she said.
Sometimes she confers with financial analyst Alex Forshaw, who has also bet on Intrade, before hedging a bet. Forshaw believes investors should make cautious predictions. "When I was in college, I didn't do much besides bet on political outcomes. It worked very well, but I got overconfident, and my model 'blinked' for about two weeks out of 10 months, which was enough to cost me everything I'd gained," he said.
Still, Forshaw tracks market trends because he believes most investors are wiser than that. "Anybody who thinks his opinion is materially different from the herd's, and meaningfully more predictive, should invest in the futures markets," he said. "The market is a democracy in the short run and a meritocracy in the long run. It punishes stupidity of academics and political 'experts' just as ruthlessly as it punishes the stupidity of overconfident college students."
Intrade's Vice President of Business Development Chad Rigetti believes the markets often are more insightful than polls. "Polls do not respond to news in real time. Market prices do," he said.
Yet while investors respond quickly to some events, they react cautiously to others.
While McCain's standing in the polls noticeably improved immediately after the Republican National Convention and his choice of Palin as his running mate in early September, the price of shares tied to McCain on Intrade barely changed.
From his perch at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Professor of Business and Public Policy Justin Wolfers watched the market daily. "The two weeks after the convention were the two most stable weeks in the markets," he said. "Markets were quite unimpressed by the choreography of the conventions and correctly responded."
Most investors, he explained, realize voters ultimately vote for the top of the ticket, rather than the bottom. "They were not going to place more or less money on a prediction regardless of public sentiment reflected in polls," he said.
With convention bounces all but faded, national polling -- which currently shows Obama with a four-point lead over McCain, according to an aggregation of polls by Real Clear Politics -- is more in line with Intrade's market.
Karlan, the Yale economics professor, said that when he is around a group of economists, "people will talk about the Intrade odds much more than poll data." Karlan believes the data's worth watching because "You're not going to invest thousands of dollars unless you know something beyond the average voter."
Prediction markets predate polls and were considered a reliable source to track political trends in the early 1900s. Polling emerged as a source of political intelligence in the 1930s. "If you go back to the 1912 election, large-scale prediction markets were the basis of [forecasting] the race," said Wolfers.
These markets subsequently declined in importance, but made a comeback after accurate political forecasts in 2004, according to Professor Keith Chen of Yale. "Intrade investors who bet on the electoral college map, accurately predicted that the presidential candidate to win Iowa would win the election," said Chen. They based their predictions off of mathematical calculations.
These speculators predicted the number of states President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry were likely to carry and ranked the likelihood of each. The candidate who could win Iowa, they determined, would win all of the states needed to enter the White House. On Election Day, Bush won Iowa, and all of the other states calculated in his favor. Polls, however, speculated otherwise. Election day exit polls suggested Kerry would win the popular vote, based on a widespread belief that he would win the electoral-rich state of Ohio. That night, Kerry lost Ohio and lost the election.
During this election cycle, Chen says economists applying the probability formula to investments say Nevada will be the pivotal state. While some polls suggest that Ohio is again the battle-ground state likely to determine the election, economists like Chen will watch Nevada. Investors believe the winner of Nevada will win the necessary electoral votes from other swing states to claim victory.
And what happens once the election's over? What will economists and politically savvy investors like Lilja bet on the markets? Contracts tied to potential policies of the next Congress and the state of our economy -- already growing in value -- could become the next jackpot.
LOAD-DATE: October 4, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Web Publication
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Washingtonpost.com
October 2, 2008 Thursday 2:00 PM EST
Celebritology Live: Megan Fox & B.A.G., Sharon Stone & Botox for Kids;
You've Been Served... a Heaping Plate of Gossip
BYLINE: Liz Kelly, washingtonpost.com Celebritology Blogger, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4906 words
HIGHLIGHT: When stars shave their heads, couch-jump, spend countless minutes in jail, commit a fashion faux pas and/or other random acts of ego-inspired inanity, washingtonpost.com Celebritology blogger Liz Kelly is on the job. Every weekday, Liz shares the buzz, offers perspective and provides crucial links to juicy alternate news sources and, of course, takes your reaction in her daily blog.
When stars shave their heads, couch-jump, spend countless minutes in jail, commit a fashion faux pas and/or other random acts of ego-inspired inanity, washingtonpost.com Celebritology blogger Liz Kelly is on the job. Every weekday, Liz shares the buzz, offers perspective and provides crucial links to juicy alternate news sources and, of course, takes your reaction in her daily blog.
Join Liz LIVE every Thursday at 2 p.m. ET to gab about the latest celebrity pairings (and splittings), rising stars (and falling ones), and get the scoop on the latest gossip making waves across the Web.
In her pre-celeb obsessed days (as if!), Liz ran washingtonpost.com's Discussions section, where she enjoyed talking to really interesting people -- sometimes even Post reporters -- on the phone. She still produces Pulitzer-prize winner Gene Weingarten's weekly Chatological Humor discussion and serves as co-proprietress of post.com's "Lost" Central.
Celebritology Live Archive
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Liz Kelly: Afternoon. Is everyone giddy with pre-debate anticipation? Okay, me too. Seriously, tonight's Palin vs. Biden may be as satisfying as watching an episode of "Intervention." And could their names be more similar? Palin and Biden. Sounds like a comedy duo. Okay, enough. Jen Chaney and I have cooked up a very interesting and controversial Friday List for you that will be posted tomorrow mid-morning. So make sure to include the blog in your Friday lunchtime rounds. You'll for sure want to get in your .02 cents on our own debate. What else? Brangelina is stateside, which surely must be a harbinger of something. And not only does Britney ex Adnan Ghalib say he doesn't have a Spears sex tape, he's ready to sue over the allegation. Today we will inaugurate a new tradition that I hope will become a regular part of the show. Producer Rocci is a voracious reader of the tabs and each week he'll share a couple of his favorite headlines from this week's batch. So keep an eye out for those below. Without any further ado, let's get started. And remember, first do no harm. It isn't as if we have Gwen Ifill here to keep us in line.
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washingtonpost.com: Hey Miz Liz, how'z it going? Just got a couple of things of note that might be worth chewing on:
Word from the current Enquirer -- and you know they're sometimes right -- is that 'Mad Men' star Jon Hamm is "behaving badly" on the set. An "insider" on the show says he's become impossible because he knows he's big now. He's become aloof, it's reported. And he's quoted as saying things like "I am this show! I am Don Draper (his character)!" But remember, the National Enquirer does like to do negative stories on popular people, to burst the bubble, so to speak.
Letterman is so interested in the Palin/Biden debate tonight that he's doing something the show hardly ever does. He's taping a Friday show to air that night instead of taping two on Thursday (the normal routine) because he knows it's gonna be funny fodder, reports today's New York Post. (His Friday night guests are Tom Brokaw -- when's he not on TV? -- and Tim Robbins.)
Tina Turner's back on tour, started in Kansas City last night. 18,000 tickets sold. Sounds like she did a good one. USA Today says the applause was deafening and she answered back to the crowd, "I'm glad to be here, too!" She's a tad heavier but still looks good and she's still wearing those short, short, leg-accenting skirts. Go Tina!
And Mr. Clean died. The 92-year-old commercial pitch man -- a real one and not animated like he is now -- died of pneumonia at the Motion Picture and Television Fund Hospital in L.A. That's where the old stars go to die. House Peters Jr. also appeared as an actor in Perry Mason, Gunsmoke, Twilight Zone and Lassie episodes.
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Dorkus: Liz, I am completely heartbroken over the fact that Scarlet Johansson is now married (to a Canadian of all people). Is there anything out there that can ease my suffering?
Liz Kelly: Well, Dorkus (and I call you that because it is liberating to be able to legitimately say that), I'd advise that perhaps its time to move on to a new object of affection? How about "Transformers" star Megan Fox, who recently told a GQ reporter about her penchant for "cupping" a certain part of boyfriend Brian Austin Green's anatomy in public. Yes, that Brian Austin Green.
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Dorkus: Dana Milbank in his chat giddily compared the debate tonight to "watching two kids playing with a loaded gun." Are you as giddy?
washingtonpost.com: Washington Sketch Chat
Liz Kelly: I'd probably characterize it more as two kids playing with a hot potato, but Dana's the wordsmith.
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KiKi's Teeth: Did Bazaar photoshop Kirsten Dunst's choppers on the cover, or has she really had them fixed?
Mag Hag
Liz Kelly: While I don't have any specifics on Kirsten's dental history, I have to admit that her teeth do look awfully white and uniform in that cover shot and, further, that the cover shot appears to be designed to debut a re-worked smile. A spokesman for Harper's by the way, denies any photo-retouching was done to Dunst's teeth. I know I'm in the minority, but I think Kiki is a cutie. I hope she doesn't go changing just to fit some cookie-cutter ideal.
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Sharon Stone: Just when I think she can't get crazier. Botox for her kid's feet? That's definitely worse than lying about having breast cancer, lying about being in Mensa, saying the earthquake in China was payback for the Chinese treatment of Tibet, and whatever other crazy stuff I can't remember that she'd done or said.
Sharon, feet stink. It's not a crisis.
Liz Kelly: Right. It's like trying to apply a full body cast when a band-aid would do. Poor little Roan. But I'm sure Sharon's intentions were good. Not only would Roan's feet not have been stinky, they would have been the driest feet in two counties. In fact...
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Liz Kelly: Here's what I was looking for -- it's a posting from today's blog comment thread from a Botox practitioner: -- While Sharon Stone was misguided in wanted to give her young child Botox for severe foot odor, her "basic instinct" was in fact correct. Severe foot odor can be caused by severe foot sweating from hyperhidrosis. This in fact can be treated with Botox injections in the feet and, with a proper nerve block, can be painless as well. Having treated many patients with Botox for this condition, I can assure you that it does in fact work. However, in someone as young as her son, hygiene, frequent sock changes etc. are the best course of action. Posted by: Perry Solomon, MD
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Washington, D.C.: I think you should do a live chat tonight during the VP debate. I think the participants fall within your purview of commentary. I'm ready to log on and read away!
Liz Kelly: OMG, I would so love that. But I'm not sure apoplexy is conducive to typing.
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Washington, D.C.: Not to beat this into oblivion, but I am curious: what makes you so convinced that Angie is everything she appears to be? That is, she is in fact an 'actor' with a lifetime of exposure to all that fame includes, including manipulating the paps. Based on that, it seems that she could easily have a public persona (caring, doting mom) that is inconsistent with her real life (the kids are being raised by the two nannies in Germany as we speak). I'm not saying she is or isn't -- I honestly have no inclination either way -- but you definitely seem to have a definite opinion on her (whereas you have a healthy dose of skepticism for pretty much everyone one else).
I guess for me, very few actors pass the Good Person test, and they are the ones who (a) consistently, over many years, demonstrate a high level of integrity, and (b) have a ton of friends attesting to their good nature. Again, I'm not trying to stir the pot, I'm just curious, mainly because it's likely that one day one of the kids will publish a memoir and we will be told the truth -- would it be upsetting to you if it were a facade?
Liz Kelly: No, not upsetting at all. I just don't think it is. I don't think Angie's raising her kids the same way my sister-in-law is -- shlepping three teens to soccer games, doing laundry and trying to put dinner on the table every night -- but having a nanny (or nannies) doesn't necessarily mean someone's a bad person. And, based on what I've read/seen about Angie's parenting, she passes your tests. And, not for nothing, moms with multiple kids do all kinds of things nowadays, like run for vice president on the Republican ticket.
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Holly, WOULD: Liz, could you do this lady a favor with some deep investigative reporting into what's going on at Hef's mansion with the Girls Next Door? Specifically Holly and Bridget? I heard rumors that Holly moved out. Is this true? And does this mean she's no longer West Coast Editor? And what does this mean for the show? I'm a huge fan of the show, it's my guilty pleasure.
Liz Kelly: As Sarah Palin would say, I'll try to find some examples and get back to you! Seriously, things seem to be coming a bit unglued in Hef's world. All of his "Girls Next Door" seem to be dating others and Joe Francis (who, we should note, isn't exactly the most reliable of sources) says Hef is having financial problems to boot.
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Silver Spring, Md.: ..." Megan Fox, who recently told a GQ reporter about her penchant for "cupping" a certain part of boyfriend Brian Austin Green's anatomy in public.
Yes, that Brian Austin Green."
My eyes -- my eyes! Thanks for that -- I will not be able to get that picture out of my mind until TMZ tonite when I am sure a video of Shauna Sand will take it's place.
Liz Kelly: You're welcome.
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washingtonpost.com: She, Stone's, gonna need to hold a press conference to get this all straightened out.
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Herndon, Va.: Please tell us why Janet Jackson was hospitalized.
Thank you.
Liz Kelly: Your guess is as good as mine at this point, but maybe it had something to do with boyfriend Jermaine Dupri's alleged episode of losing his lunch (or dinner) on Janet's lap over the weekend. That would be enough to send me to the ER, I can tell you.
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Richmond, Va.: Greetings!
I've been enjoying the Sarah Conner Chronicles, and one thing that has struck me in the last two episodes is how sometimes Summer Glau (Cameron) looks amazingly like Mary Tyler Moore. It's the bambi eyes.
Summer Glau
Mary: Mary Tyler Moore
Instead of separated at birth, gave up at birth?
Liz Kelly: Enh... I dunno. I' m not really seeing it, but it's hard to tell from just a still photo. But if I was pushed to make a comparison, I'd say Summer looks more like Laura Kightlinger.
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Methinks: Please, Liz Kelly, give us your take on the Letterman questioning of Anne Hathaway re: her ex. I understand there's an obvious understanding that when one goes on Letterman that the questioning could be uncomfortable, but I thought he was out of line. He comes across as a crank and a bully.
Liz Kelly: I thought Anne held her own particularly well, though. I liked this comment: "I don't want to go into the specifics of it, but you do have to give me credit. As far as relationships crashing and burning go ... come on. I did pretty great. I mean ... scorch that earth. I'm an all or nothing girl."
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Scarle,TT: Who is this Scarlett Johanssen? Do you have a picture of her or something, so we know who she might be?
washingtonpost.com: Scarlett Johansson (Google Images)
Liz Kelly: It is apparently my lot in life to be surrounded by ScarJo lovers.
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Heather Locklear: Entrapment by the papparazi? Or genuine motor vehicle violation? Or both?
Liz Kelly: I'm going to guess a little bit of both. The NY Daily News had an item this morning about Locklear turning up at an AA meeting yesterday, which sounds like a good idea. I didn't include it in the Morning Mix because it felt invasive to me. I mention it here because we're just talking and I know you guys can be discreet when it counts.
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Paul Newman: The last of his kind, a uniquely American actor, sportsman, humanitarian, and smoldering hunk who loved his wife for half a century. We were lucky to have him as long we did.
Liz Kelly: Hear hear. I hope you were able to read Stephen Hunter's weekend appreciation. Maybe Rocci can find the link.
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Philadelphia, Pa.: Re Angie as a good mom -- she may or may not be, but she clearly has connections with her children that are evident in any of the pictures of them together. They may have nannies, but when she's out in public with any of them there doesn't appear to be a stunned look on the child's face wondering who this stranger is carrying her/him around, and the child isn't leaning rigidly away from her.
Liz Kelly: That's the same vibe I get. Could I be wrong? Could you be wrong? Yes. But keep in mind that while it may be easy for a trained actress to fake affection, it ain't so easy for kids.
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Arlington, Va.: Okay, I can't believe I'm doing this -- but -- Botox has been used as a cure for extra sweatiness. Jennifer Aniston got her armpits botoxed. So, you know, maybe we should give Sharon Stone a little break.
I deserve many years of good karma for that post.
Liz Kelly: Agreed. I know Botox is a good way to stop hyper-hydrosis for months at a time. No one is arguing with that fact. What got everyone in such a tizzy was the fact that Sharon suggested this procedure for an eight-year-old.
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washingtonpost.com: Stephen Hunter: Forget Cool: Paul Newman Knew How to Play It Smart (Post, Sept. 28)
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Washington, D.C.: I'm watching Season 3 of Lost on DVD. (I rarely watch series while they're airing, 'cause I like to watch 4 eps at a time.) I almost wasn't going to keep watching Lost, but you were so into it...
Anyway, I need to know if it ever gets any better. The show is pretty good at posing interesting questions (how did Locke end up in a wheelchair and how did he get out of it? How did the Others get on the island in the first place? What happened to Michael? Whatinhell is that black smoke monster?) But as far as I can tell, they've rarely ANSWERED any. So unless I get some answers, I really can't keep it up. Since you're the reason I went back to Lost in the first place, I need you to tell me (without spoilers) if, given my need for storyline resolution, I should stick with it.
Ta!
Liz Kelly: Tell you what, let's revisit this question tomorrow when Jen Chaney and I host the monthly "Lost" Book Club discussion. We'll be chatting about Kurt Vonnegut's "Slaughterhouse 5" at 2 p.m. ET.
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Australia: Hi Liz, one of your overseas fans here. I just wanted to make sure you've seen this: Brian Austin Green (YouTube) Can the new 90210 compete with that? I doubt it. In case the above isn't sufficiently celebrity news-centred, is David (aka Brian Austin Green) still with that Angelina wannabe?
Liz Kelly: The scary thing is you sent this before I mentioned Brian above. I have just one response: Cupping.
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LOST answer: From my easy chair LOST never got any better but I know I'm in the minority on this live chat.
Liz Kelly: Yes, pipe down hater. (I kid)
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Lost: When does it start up again?
Liz Kelly: End of January. And it will be returning to Wednesday evenings. But let's save all this "Lost" talk for tomorrow afternoon.
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Sharon Stone Song: Baby, do you understand me now Sometimes I feel a little mad Well don't you know that no-one alive Can always be an angel When things go wrong I seem to be bad
I'm just a soul who's intentions are good Oh Lord, please don't let me be misunderstood
Liz Kelly: Right. Sharon's lot in life seems to be jumping the wrong way at every possible juncture.
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Words of advice: You are the last one to talk with Sen. Biden before he heads onto the stage to match wits with the Polar Princess. What do you say to him?
Liz Kelly: Look before you leap. Think before you speak. And a little humility goes a long way. Also, I think he couldn't go wrong with Paris Hilton's sign off on her new "BFF" show: TTYN b*****s!
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Alexandria, Va.: How do your tats compare with Benji Madden's?
Tattoos
Liz Kelly: Benji has about 98 percent more than I and his are much more... gruesome I guess would be the word. Good work, though, from the looks of 'em.
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River City, Va.: So this was on Milbank's chat, but I thought your audience would appreciate it, too. Palin Bingo
Liz Kelly: Ooh, me likey. And post.com's Kim O'Donnel today blogged about debate viewing vittles.
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Washington, D.C.: Liz --
I'll admit that I don't know who half the people mentioned in this discussion are, which should give you a sense of my celebrity IQ. Given that, I am surprised by my strong reaction to the strong reactions of "fans" who were surprised, disappointed, and forced to "rethink everything" because Clay Aiken came out. His music isn't really my taste, but it makes me want to buy all of his CDs and give them out for Christmas to my family, the neighbors, the mailman . . .
Is there any early indication that coming out has hurt his career? I know that there are more important things to worry about these days, but this is really ticking me off. Thoughts?
Liz Kelly: None so far. In fact, I think Clay's career topped out long before the announcement. He'll always have a place in the entertainment landscape, but he's hardly A-list material at this point. In fact, People reportedly got the scoop (along with pix of Clay with his newborn child) pretty easy. No one else wanted them.
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North Potomac, Md.: Re today's item regarding the passing of the actor who played "Mr. Clean" -- it'd be nice if The Post or the Associated Press would get the company name correct. It's Procter and Gamble, not Proctor and Gamble.
Liz Kelly: Noted.
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Nosy Parker: "...while it may be easy for a trained actress to fake affection, it ain't so easy for kids."
And even less so for companion animals. At least kids can be bribed.
Liz Kelly: Speaking of companion animals, it's all I can do to get Andy to look at me with anything approaching civility.
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washingtonpost.com: That song, "Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood," remembered by Sir Rocci here, from 1965 -- yes, I'm an oldie -- and done by The Animals, before it was Eric Burden and ... Originally written for and recorded by Nina Simone in 1964, and then in the good old disco days it was recorded -- a long version -- by Santa Esmeralda. That was hot.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: People, Brangelina do not manipulate, court, engage with or otherwise desire the presence of paparazzi in their lives. They could maybe escape it if they relocated to another planet. Even then some enterprising pap would get a hook up to the Hubble telescope and try to get pictures of them no matter how mundane the activity. Give 'em a break.
Liz Kelly: Right, Brangelina have become -- either because of or in spite of the care they take to protect their family's privacy -- one of the most sought-after paparazzi targets going. Imagine having that added to the normal stresses of juggling a family and career.
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Clay Aiken: Saw him in Spamalot over the weekend, actor he is not! And he has a bodyguard when he leaves at night....
Liz Kelly: Well, I can't fault the guy for wanting a bodyguard. Probably not the worst idea for a guy who inspires such devotion in some and such revulsion in others.
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Washington, D.C.: Why is Fox dating Brian Austin Green? Was Brian Bonsall taken?
Re: cupping, his initials are B.A.G.
Liz Kelly: It's funny cuz it's true. I'm wondering how long Megan will stay with B.A.G. if her career continues to take off.
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Washington, D.C.: I'd watch a sitcom called "Palin and Biden." Or better yet, an old-school detective show. He could be the crotchety old gumshoe with a knack for bringing in the bad guy, and she can be the feisty young firebrand with a good heart but a lot to learn. McCain could be the chief "with a past" and Obama could be the earnest assistant DA who got burned by private practice and corporate law before finding his calling.
Liz Kelly: Oooh, that's some good imaginating there, bucko. Me, I'd like to see them cast in a "Perfect Strangers" type sitcom. Biden is the urbane, life-weary city dweller and Palin moves in from a very foreign place -- Alaska -- and tries to apply her folksy ways to life in the Big Apple.
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Curmudgeon: Andy is such a beautiful cat. Maybe it's that his face is so expressive.
Anyhow, in the Morning Mix today, I made mention of the vision that clouded my brain as I awoke this morniing: Sharon Stone channeling Joan Crawford.
eeeeeeeek!
that's all.
smooches
Liz Kelly: I said NO WIRE HANGERS!
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Washington, D.C.: Okay, I've got nothing on celebrity talk, but that picture of Andy...he looks so disappointed in you. What did you do?
Liz Kelly: I exist. That's all. I exist. Andy is actually here now, curled up to the left of the computer, sitting in the sun doing nothing, as per usual. Every few minutes he tries to sneak a sip of my tea. I don't know why I put up with this feckless freeloading.
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Andy pic: Uh, Andy looks like he's gettin' tired of the paparazzi in his face every Thursday. Better back off or you might find yourself faced with a restraining order.
Liz Kelly: Good point.
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For the record...: I misread the word "tats" for, well, you know. I was amused until I read to whom you were to commpare yours. Then I was Confused.
Liz Kelly: Well, Benji might just rival me on that count, too.
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First dogs (pets)?: Hi Liz,
Okay, Barney and Mis Beazley are incredibly cute. Who would be the first pets if Obama or McCain got elected?
Would you agree that having a pet makes candidates seem more aproachable and likable?
Liz Kelly: Not sure how reliable this is, but according to a quick Google search: -- Barack Obama has no pets, though Obama has promised his kids a dog. -- John McCain owns three turtles, three parakeets, a ferret, two dogs, a cat and 13 salt water fish.
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byool, IN: Does these frozen diapers make my (butt) look big?
Liz Kelly: No, Jamie Oliver, they suit you to a tee. (See this morning's Mix if you're lost here)
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Baltimore, Md.: Hi Liz. Apparently, I've been reading Celebritology too much. I actually had a dream last night that I was working as LiLo's assistant. Sadly (or thankfully?) I don't recall the details except that her girlfriend was there.
Liz Kelly: Well, I guess it could have been worse. You could have been Dinah Lohan's assistant.
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He comes across as a crank and a bully.: Oh, like that's something new for Letterman.
Liz Kelly: Good point, but to that I'd say that everyone who agrees to sit down next to Letterman's desk knows he's unpredictably salty and abrasive. It isn't as if anyone is being blindsided here.
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washingtonpost.com: McCain sounds like he's ready for Noah's Ark. Does Palin have matches for all those animals?
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Gaithersburg, Md/: I heard Minka Kelley is suppossed to be in town for YouthAids gala this Fri. Any chance she'll be out and about in the city?
Liz Kelly: Well, I suppose anything's possible...
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McCain's pets: Do we know which animals live in which of his 13 houses?
Liz Kelly: Now, now -- that's seven houses. Don't mischaracterize the man as as some kind of elite, disconnected from the average American. Okay, another point while we're at it: Is anyone else sick of the term "Main St." being used to describe average Americans vis a vis the financial crisis?
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Puckeridge Village, England: Which country is more obsessed with celebrity and celebrity gossip, the U.S. or the U.K.? That question has always interested me since I moved here 20 years ago. Example: when David Beckham shaved his head, EVERY newspaper in the U.K. had a picture of Beckham ON THE FRONT PAGE. I thought that in the U.S. this could never happen. When Madonna celebrated her birthday, it was again national news. Mrs. Beckham recently had a short haircut. That, too, was national news. I graduated college with a writer who has been called by some the greatest living American author. It was a small college, but I learned more about him from the gossip columns in the U.K. than I ever knew about him at the university.
Liz Kelly: I'd need a lot more time than what I've got alotted for today's chat to come up with a data-based answer. But, off the cuff, I'd guess we're about evenly matched at this point. Remember, the U.S. is the country of origin of round-the-clock cable news coverage of Anna Nicole Smith's death.
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Chicago, Ill.: Hey Liz,
Was anyone besides me surprised that Kim K got voted off DWTS? To think that she went before Cloris tells you what the public thinks of her.
Liz Kelly: Oh I was totally surprised, too. I can only imagine they're keeping poor Cloris for the boomer portion of the audience which, truth be told, is probably a bigger and more influential segment than anyone who might've been interested in Kim Kardashian.
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Live Post Chats during the debate tonight: People whose chats I'd read: Robin Givhan Liz Kelly Gene W Eugene R Ruth Marcus Dana P Dana M Shailagh Anne K Hax Warren Brown
... who am I missing?
Liz Kelly: Tell you what, though, the best possible person will be online at 10:30 p.m. ET to kick off a post-debate chat: The Post's Bob Kaiser, who has an uncanny ability for putting complicated situations into perspective.
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Hey Puckeridge: Will you at least tell us who the writer was?
Liz Kelly: ...
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Grrrr...Main Street!: Yes, I agree with you 100 percent! I think the term "Main Street" is lame and uncreative and, as with every major political catchphrase, overly simplistic. I suppose that is the point but honestly, the way they talk about it all I don't want to be lumped in with either Wall Street or Main Street!
Liz Kelly: Thank you, thank you.
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Obama has promised his kids a dog: Not just any dog, but one from a shelter or pound. Big difference between that and a pricey bred-to-order pet.
Liz Kelly: Right. And I bet that dog will have only one dog house.
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True Blood?: Hey Liz! Are you watching that new HBO show "True Blood"? Anna Paquin is doing a pretty good job and the guy who plays Vampire Bill (Stephen Moyer, I think?) is dreamy!
Liz Kelly: Yes. Mr. Liz and I are totally hooked already. Alan Ball does it again.
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Washington, D.C.: "washingtonpost.com: McCain sounds like he's ready for Noah's Ark. Does Palin have matches for all those animals?"
No, but she's prepared to shoot and dress 'em all.
Liz Kelly: ba-dump-ah!
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Portland, Ore.: "Okay, another point while we're at it: Is anyone else sick of the term "Main Street" being used to describe average Americans vis a vis the financial crisis?"
Yes, yes, YES! Matt Lauer has said Main Street about a million times this week. The problem could be that I'm getting my financial info from the Today show.
Liz Kelly: It's become overused in a very short amount of time and really comes off as condescending. Next thing you know, they'll be calling us "rubes."
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WDC: Aw crap. Why'd you have to mention McCain's turtles? How can I possibly vote against a guy who appreciates the inherent profundity and wisdom of a turtle??
(Did you ever watch Jeeves and Wooster? There's a fantastic moment where Stephen Fry as Jeeves says, in his deadpan way, "I have often enjoyed the quiet companionship of a goldfish." Favorite line of the whole series.)
Liz Kelly: Well, let's not be hasty. Just because the man has turtles, doesn't mean he appreciates all that wisdom.
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Washington, D.C.: I also wonder if the U.S. is quicker to celebritize than the U.K. I mean, Kardashians? Does that happen across the pond??
Liz Kelly: Oh yes. You only need to read the Daily Mail online to get their country-specific B, C and D-level star-gossip.
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Liz Kelly: Okay, guys, that's it for today. I need to get started on my baked Alaska so it'll be ready in time for tonight's debate. Don't forget to check out the blog tomorrow for a fabulous Friday List that promises to hatch much backing and forthing and hemming and hawing. And, for you Lost-o-philes, Jen and I will be chatting at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow about this month's book club selection, "Slaughterhouse 5." That's all.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
National Edition
Building Better Bodies
BYLINE: By MILT FREUDENHEIM
SECTION: Section SPG; Column 0; Small Business; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1863 words
JACKSON, Mich.
IN this factory town in south-central Michigan, hard hit by the decline of the auto industry and home to a population whose health grimly lags well below national averages, several dozen small-business owners have joined forces in a wellness campaign that rivals those of the country's giant corporations.
With fewer employees to rely on, small businesses are particularly vulnerable when workers take sick days or function poorly on the job.
''If they're not healthy and alert, they can't do things like designing projects,'' said Mike Shirkey, owner of Orbitform Group, a machine tools company with 55 employees in Jackson.
An engineering graduate of the University of Michigan, Mr. Shirkey compares the wellness program with the ''measure and improve'' approach that he applies to manufacturing. Two years ago, Mr. Shirkey helped persuade other business owners in Jackson to join a CEO Roundtable, a forum and self-help group for top executives that is trying to address employees' health as a crucial part of corporate strategy, rather than as simply a cost-management problem.
Kirk Mercer, president of R. W. Mercer, a Jackson-based contractor that builds small factories, doctors' offices and other commercial buildings in the Midwest, said he was so taken with this approach that he was urging his small subcontractors, each with a handful of employees, to join the wellness roundtable.
There, businesspeople share ideas and encourage one another, but each business makes its own health-care decisions and pays for whatever coverage it provides; there is no pooling of employees for insurance purposes or to achieve other economies of scale, and no government contribution to the program.
If the strategy works, the result will probably be healthier workers and lower medical costs, and that will be striking, when many small businesses are unable to provide any health coverage at all -- and one in seven Americans is uninsured. At least half of them work for small companies or are self-employed.
Promoting wellness is especially urgent in Jackson, whose residents have more health problems than people living elsewhere, according to a recent survey paid for by the Allegiance Health system, which operates the local hospital; the county health department; and other local agencies.
In Jackson County, 70 percent of adults are overweight or obese, compared with 63 percent nationally, and 14 percent have diabetes, well above the 9 percent national rate. More than 1 in 4 is a smoker, compared with 1 in 10 nationally. Many people in the county do not realize they are taking serious chances with their health, the survey found; they do not have insurance and cannot afford health services.
Jackson's economic health is shaky as well. As the city's population has declined slowly to about 34,000, median household income has fallen to $31,000, a third less than Michigan as a whole, and the countywide (metropolitan area) unemployment rate has climbed to 9.7 percent, compared with 9.1 percent statewide in July.
Historically, Jackson has several claims to fame. It calls itself the birthplace of the Republican Party, noting that on July 6, 1854, the party formally organized itself and held its first convention here, according to the city's Web site; among those in attendance was Abraham Lincoln.
Jackson was a major rail hub and the onetime headquarters of Buick Motors, and it remains home to a state prison, now more than a century old, that looms over the city like a medieval fortress and was for decades the largest prison in the country.
If Jackson's wellness initiative succeeds, the small city may once again be at the forefront of a national trend.
Several states, including Maryland, New Hampshire and Rhode Island, have recently required insurance companies to offer wellness benefits to employees of small businesses, and a foundation-financed business group in Colorado, with encouragement from Lt. Gov. Barbara O'Brien, is also planning a wellness program for small- and medium-size employers.
As part of the broad national debate about health care, Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate for president, has proposed a tax credit for small businesses to help them pay health insurance premiums for their employees. His Republican rival, Senator John McCain, has called for every family to receive a tax credit of up to $5,000 to help pay for insurance, while making employees' health benefits taxable as income. Mr. McCain has recommended incentives to reduce costs, including disease management and health and wellness programs.
No matter what kinds of changes are made in the health system, many policy experts are counting on wellness and disease-management programs to slow the relentless rise of medical costs.
In Jackson, the two largest employers are Consumers Energy, the local power company; and Allegiance Health, the local hospital, and the latter has been especially involved in the initiative. ''We hope we can develop ways for the providers and payers to work together,'' said Georgia Fojtasek, a nurse with a doctorate in education who is the chief executive of Allegiance Health. Allegiance administers the wellness program and spends $2 million annually to support community health projects.
Among the small-business participants in the wellness program is Bob Lefere, president of the Pioneer Foundry, which is paying for a nicotine patch to help a 30-year-old mold maker quit smoking. He was the last smoker on the foundry's 15-person staff.
The link between smoking and dangerous lung and heart problems is widely recognized, and some large companies require workers who smoke to pay higher premiums unless they at least try to quit. Pioneer Foundry, a union shop for 50 years, already provides for annual physicals and 12 months of infant care under its contract with the Glass, Molders, Pottery, Plastics and Allied Workers International Union. Mr. Lefere said that when contract talks open next year, he might propose adding a health club membership for workers.
Orbitform has already installed a fitness center, with exercise machines and showers that workers can use at lunchtime and before and after work.
At Great Lakes Industry, which makes power-transmission equipment and auto parts, Larry Schultz, the president, marshaled some fellow exercise enthusiasts to clean up a storage area and transform it into a small fitness center. Mr. Schultz also got rid of the candy machines and offers free fruit and vegetable snacks.
Running on one of its treadmills helped Gary Lykins, a shipping and customer service manager at Great Lakes Industry, shed 45 pounds he had gained after he left the factory floor for a more sedentary job. ''I run 100 miles a month on that thing,'' Mr. Lykins said.
Great Lakes Industry and Orbitform also pay for health coaches, provided by Allegiance Health, who meet several times a year with employees and their spouses to guide them toward goals like losing weight, eating healthy food and lowering blood pressure and cholesterol levels.
''There are a lot of things you just don't think about until somebody sits down with you and explains,'' said Robert Dean, 36, a machinist who works the night shift at Great Lakes Industry.
His wife Sarah, 28, said she had not smoked for almost two years after they met with a coach for the first time. ''We both smoked before that, and we tried to quit a lot of times,'' she said.
Mrs. Dean, who operates a day care center for 11 toddlers, said she put on weight after she and Robert were married. ''I didn't have to fit into my dress anymore,'' she said. ''It was kind of a mental thing.'' Now, with daily exercising and dutifully eating fruits and vegetables, she has slimmed down. ''I fit into a size 8,'' she said. ''I haven't fit into an 8 since sixth grade.''
Great Lakes Industry, which is self-insured, offers single employees a $681-a-year reduction in their health insurance premiums if they participate in the wellness program. Married employees get the same reduction and an additional $681 discount for their spouses, who are required to join. The deductible is also waived, and co-payments for medical services are halved to 10 percent for participating workers.
The health coaches help establish goals for the workers, who are expected to ''make an honest effort'' to reach them, Mr. Schultz said. The coaches give special attention to people with chronic conditions like diabetes, asthma and heart disease.
Last year, Great Lakes Industry added fully paid health ''prevention benefits,'' including immunization shots and physical exams. Participants must select a primary-care doctor and follow her recommendations.
With 95 percent of its 65 or so employees participating in the program, health costs for Great Lakes Industry employees average $7,363 each last year, including $200 for the coach. That was down from $9,158 in 2006.
But ''return on investment is difficult to measure,'' Mr. Schultz said, because a small company's health costs were likely to be erratic from year to year, with variables like births, accidents and illnesses. He is estimating an average cost of $8,095 for 2008.
''I believe we have at least flattened or dampened the trend line,'' he said, referring to annual cost increases. His employees have been paying 14 to 20 percent of total costs, and he does not want to shift more of the costs to them.
''These are factory folks,'' Mr. Schultz said. ''Health care is an important benefit. I don't believe the solution to the cost problem is to shift more to families. If they are actively participating in improving their health, we as an employer can afford to provide them with a rich benefit plan.''
His daughter, Dr. Amy M. Schultz, began learning about health insurance when she helped out at Great Lakes Industry as a teenager; now she is director of prevention and community health at the local hospital, and she works with Prof. Dee Edington, director of the University of Michigan Health Management Research Center, which advises the Jackson programs.
Participants fill out questionnaires about their medical history and health-related behavior, and the health risk appraisals and analyses for the employers are conducted through the U.M. Health Management Research Center, Dr. Schultz said.
Phil Sponsler, the president of Orbitform, said he was ''a big proponent'' of the program. He is 6-foot-3 and weighed 248 pounds when he learned that his blood pressure was high, he said. Now he gets up early and works out with a friend (who happens to be his cardiologist). When he gets to work at 6:30 a.m., he eats his own concoction of cereal, nuts, olive oil, flax seed and cinnamon for breakfast. He said he now weighs 231 and his blood pressure is managed.
Ms. Fojtasek of Allegiance Health said businesspeople on the hospital's board, like Mr. Shirkey and Mr. Schultz, had encouraged the hospital to push for health improvements in Jackson.
Healthy employees are good for business in more ways than one, Mr. Schultz said, adding, ''We treat our customers and each other better when we are feeling good.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: October 1, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: HEALTH-BENEFIT ANALYSIS: Gary Lykins exercising during his shift at Great Lakes Industry in Jackson, Mich., which lowers insurance premiums for employees who take part in a health program.(PHOTOGRAPH BY FABRIZIO COSTANTINI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
A NEW PRIORITY: Jackson businesses are giving incentives to workers to adopt healthier lifestyles. Health statistics for the city are well below national averages.
TAKING A STAND: Jackson executives, from left, Mike Shirkey of Orbitform Group, Larry Schultz of Great Lakes Industry, and Kirk Mercer of R.W. Mercer, support programs to keep workers healthy.
INCENTIVE: Weight training equipment, left, at Great Lakes Industry, and Andrew Irwin, a machinist at the company.(PHOTOGRAPHS BY FABRIZIO COSTANTINI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES) (pg. H6)
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The New York Times
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Though an Experienced Debater, Biden Is Often Tripped Up by Spontaneity
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 1094 words
With a single-word response, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. surprised and amused his listeners in the first Democratic primary debate, in April 2007. He was asked if he could be disciplined on the world stage and restrain his legendary loquaciousness.
''Yes,'' he said.
No one expected Mr. Biden to stop there, but he did, leaving an expectant silence, until the audience caught the joke and burst into laughter.
He showed less restraint in a CNN/YouTube debate a few months later, when a gun owner asked where the candidates stood on gun control, saying he wanted to know if his ''babies'' would be safe. ''This is my baby,'' the man said on the video, showing off his Bushmaster AR-15.
''I'll tell you what,'' Mr. Biden replied. ''If that is his baby, he needs help.''
The audience applauded enthusiastically, but Mr. Biden did not stop there.
He went on to deride the questioner, saying he incriminated himself because the man said he bought the gun while it was banned, then he questioned the man's stability. ''I don't know that he is mentally qualified to own that gun,'' he said in a gratuitous aside.
The Democrats held 26 debates during the primary season. Mr. Biden, of Delaware, participated in 14 of them before he dropped out of the race Jan. 3, after he came in fifth in the Iowa caucuses. That would seem to give him a huge advantage going into Thursday's vice-presidential debate with Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, who has never debated on the national stage.
But his off-putting remark to the gun owner suggests that perhaps his ''yes'' answer to the question about self-discipline had been premature and that there are perils ahead for Mr. Biden on Thursday -- both because of his tendency to go too far and the hazards of debating a woman.
A review of Mr. Biden's debate performances shows him to be deeply knowledgeable across a range of topics, reflecting his nearly four decades in Washington, where he is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Mr. Biden's answers tend to gush forth and his voice is raspy, which lends his arguments an air of urgency. He also uses assertive phrases like, ''the truth is,'' or ''folks, let me tell you,'' which grab listeners by the lapel.
At the June 3 debate in New Hampshire, for example, he was asked to defend his vote to continue financing the war in Iraq, a vote sought by the White House and criticized by fellow Democrats as an open-ended commitment to the war. All the other Democrats on stage voted against it, including Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the presidential nominee who has picked Mr. Biden as his running mate.
''I love these guys who tell you they're going to stop the war,'' Mr. Biden said of his fellow Democrats. ''Let me tell you straight up the truth. The truth of the matter is, the only one that's emboldened the enemy has been George Bush by his policies, not us funding the war.''
One danger for Mr. Biden on Thursday is that his habit of speaking authoritatively, of saying he possesses the truth, will come across as overbearing or condescending, particularly toward someone like Ms. Palin, who lacks his credentials. To try to guard against sounding sexist, he is sparring in practice sessions with Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan, who is playing the role of Ms. Palin.
The only other time a woman has appeared on the debate stage as part of a major-party ticket was in 1984, when Geraldine A. Ferraro, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, faced Vice President George Bush. One exchange might offer Mr. Biden a good lesson.
Mr. Bush had said, ''Let me help you with the difference, Mrs. Ferraro, between Iran and the embassy in Lebanon.'' Ms. Ferraro instantly highlighted what she perceived as condescension: ''I almost resent, Vice President Bush, your patronizing attitude that you have to teach me about foreign policy.''
Mr. Bush underscored one of the hazards of debating a woman when he later gloated into an open microphone, ''We tried to kick a little ass last night.''
The risk may be even greater for Mr. Biden. His innate exuberance and gusto in speaking without stopping for air can make him sound like he is clubbing his points -- and his opponent.
He loves railing against the Republicans; he did so most memorably in an October debate in Philadelphia, when he said of former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, ''There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun and a verb and 9/11.''
The line was a huge hit, but again, Mr. Biden did not let it rest. Although the question had nothing to do with Mr. Giuliani, Mr. Biden milked it for 43 seconds more.
Other perils for Mr. Biden are unrelated to Ms. Palin.
He has a tendency to blurt out whatever is on his mind. Even as the vice-presidential nominee, Mr. Biden has veered off script, creating a series of flaps in recent days, from opposing the bailout of the American International Group, which Mr. Obama supported, to labeling as ''terrible'' an Obama campaign commercial against Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden describes himself as blunt.
He was asked at a Dec. 13 debate in Iowa about whether some of his earlier comments -- that Mr. Obama ''is articulate and bright and clean,'' for example -- reflected a discomfort with the subject of race.
''It may be possible because I speak so bluntly that people misunderstand,'' Mr. Biden said, defending his commitment to civil rights. Mr. Biden looked sad as Mr. Obama himself stepped in to vouch for him.
One of the consequences of a long time in the Senate is a long record of votes for which one can be held accountable, just as a consequence of a long primary can be a long record of attacks on allies. On Thursday, Mr. Biden may have to answer for both. See the debate of June 3, 2007, for how he twisted himself in knots over a vote for a 700-mile-long fence along the border with Mexico. And see Mr. Biden's statement that votes against financing the Iraq war by other Democratic candidates, including Mr. Obama, amount to ''cutting off support that will save the lives of thousands of American troops.''
Joseph A. Pika, a political scientist at the University of Delaware who has observed Mr. Biden over much of his career, said the senator was prone to making broad declarations -- ''We've got to level with the American people!'' -- then expounding with lengthy elaborations.
''He likes to hold forth,'' Dr. Pika said. ''Being an effective debater will require him to be disciplined and focused and to make his points punchier than is customarily his style.''
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LOAD-DATE: October 1, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. in a debate last year with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.(PHOTOGRAPH BY SHAWN THEW/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY)
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The New York Times
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
...While Obama Discusses His Tax Plans
BYLINE: By MICHAEL FALCONE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 616 words
This two-minute advertisement by Senator Barack Obama's media team features him speaking directly into the camera.
THE SCRIPT Mr. Obama says: ''For eight years, we've been told that the way to a stronger economy was to give huge tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest Americans, and somehow prosperity would trickle down. Well, now we know the truth. It didn't work. Instead of prosperity trickling down, pain has trickled up. Working-family incomes have fallen by $2,000 a year.
We're losing jobs. Deficits are exploding. Our economy's in turmoil. I know that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis. But not by driving down the very same path. And that's what this election's all about. On taxes, John McCain and I have very different ideas. Instead of giving hundreds of billions in new tax breaks to big corporations and oil companies, I'll cut taxes for small and startup businesses that are the backbone of our economy. Instead of more tax breaks for corporations that outsource American jobs, I'll give them to companies who create jobs here. Instead of extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest, I'll focus on you. My plan offers three times as much tax relief to the middle class as Senator McCain's. If you make less than a quarter- million a year, you won't see your taxes raised one penny under my plan. And seniors making less than 50,000, who are struggling with the rising costs of food and drugs on fixed incomes, won't pay income taxes at all. The tax code we have today is over 10,000 pages long. Almost every bit of it was shaped by some lobbyist taking care of some special interest. Well, it's time we had a president who puts you first. I hope you'll log on to BarackObama.com and read my full plan. It will help jump-start our economy, create millions of jobs and bring back our Main Streets all across America. The old trickle-down theory has failed us. We can't afford four more years like the last eight. I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message because I know that with a new direction and new policies focused on jobs and the middle class, we can lift our economy and our country.''
ON THE SCREEN Mr. Obama delivers a two-minute monologue on fiscal issues, outlining what he says are the key differences between his economic proposals and those of Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee.
ACCURACY The advertisement correctly points out that the incomes of working American families have fallen during the Bush administration. The commercial accuses the McCain campaign of ''giving hundreds of billions in new tax breaks to big corporations and oil companies'' and ''extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest.'' While it is true that Mr. McCain has proposed lowering the corporate income tax rate, that reduction applies across the board and is not aimed specifically at oil companies. Mr. Obama has proposed eliminating capital gains taxes on startup and small businesses. The spot's assertion that the Obama plan ''offers three times as much tax relief to the middle class as Senator McCain's'' is backed up by data from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. Mr. Obama also points out that American households earning less $250,000 a year will not be subject to an income tax increase. Although that is true for a vast majority of families in that income bracket, some could still see their taxes go up.
SCORECARD This spot is part of the Obama campaign's attempt to reframe the economic narrative by rebuking a main critique from the McCain campaign: that Mr. Obama is a tax-and-spend liberal. The Obama campaign stretches some facts, but it does a compelling job of tying Mr. McCain to President Bush's economic policies. MICHAEL FALCONE
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The New York Times
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Keeping Contributions Safe
BYLINE: By MICHAEL LUO
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE CAUCUS; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 280 words
With every day seeming to bring a new bank failure, a jittery political donor might very well ask: Where does my campaign keep its millions of dollars in contributions and are they safe?
Queries to the Obama and McCain campaigns, as well as the Democratic and Republican National Committees, yielded differing answers and levels of specificity. All emphasized there was no cause for concern.
The R.N.C.'s chairman, Mike Duncan, explained the party's bank had been Wachovia, which was acquired this week by Citigroup, but said that the R.N.C.'s holdings were in no danger.
The party has what are called ''sweep accounts,'' in which cash that comes in is then used to repurchase United States Treasury securities overnight, allowing the party to ''collateralize'' its holdings, a precautionary step the party takes when it has a lot of cash on hand, Mr. Duncan said.
The McCain campaign received $84 million from the Treasury under public financing this month. All but a small fraction of that money is in Treasury securities held at J. P. Morgan, said Brian Rogers, a spokesman for the campaign.
The exception is daily operating expenses, which are maintained at a variety of local banks, including Fidelity & Trust Bank -- which just merged with EagleBank -- and BB&T.
Both the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee keep their money at Bank of America.
The D.N.C. declined to elaborate on its holdings. But Ben LaBolt, an Obama campaign spokesman, said only a small portion of its contributions were kept as bank deposits. A majority are in ''conservative investment vehicles,'' although not United States government securities, said Mr. LaBolt. MICHAEL LUO
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The New York Times
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Candidates 'Approve' Ads and Get a Bit Creative
BYLINE: By STEVE FRIESS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 1243 words
The ''candidate'' had just finished detailing her energy policy, trashing her opponents and predicting her victory.
There was only one more obligatory thing to say.
''I'm Paris Hilton and I approved this message,'' the celebrity heiress cooed, '' 'cause I think it's totally hot.''
Political satire? To be sure. But like every other convention spun on its head by the amusing Internet spot Ms. Hilton created this summer to spoof the commercials by Senator John McCain that likened Senator Barack Obama to her, the humor comes from its similarity to reality.
Ms. Hilton's closer works because like hundreds of candidates for federal office, she did not just leave it at, ''I approved this message.''
That was, after all, the only thing the 2003 election reform law demanded: that politicians acknowledge in their own voices their responsibility for advertisements they run on public airwaves. But five years later, the ''I approved'' has become a pivotal device in commercials for Congress and the White House, a place for candidates to make a declaration of intent, summarize the message or take a parting shot.
Mr. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, for instance, made it an important part of his first general-election advertisement in June, emphasizing his patriotism with, ''I approved this message because I'll never forget those values, and if I have the honor of taking the oath of office as president, it will be with a deep and abiding faith in the country I love.''
That's a mouthful, political observers say, and not as smooth a use of the legal disclaimer requirement as would be desired. The aim should be to make the disclaimer as seamless as possible because it already forces candidates to use precious seconds of expensive 30-second advertisements.
''You try to fit it in where it's the least distracting,'' said Eric Potholm, a Republican campaign strategist whose firm is creating commercials this year for Congressional candidates in Florida, Kansas and New Mexico. ''You don't want it to sound clunky. I tend to like to do it in the body of the ad or toward the end, something like, 'I approved this ad because I want to do a, b or c.' ''
Mr. Potholm and others called the requirement an albatross, a linguistically unappetizing time-waster especially when the candidate's voice is heard throughout the advertisement.
Still, there is no significant effort to curtail them; at least for this election cycle, they can be counted on to be even more constant in political advertisements than waving flags or, in negative commercials, foreboding music.
The intent of the law was twofold: to inform the public of who paid for the advertisement and to discourage candidates from slinging so much mud at one another. The first part has worked, said a Vanderbilt University political science professor, John Geer, but the level of political vitriol has not changed.
''This reform was completely counterproductive,'' Mr. Geer said. ''Everybody complains about the sound bite as it is and here we took the ad and made it shorter. And it didn't work. The 2004 campaign was more negative than 2000 by far.''
What's more, the phrase is now a political cliche, as evidenced recently when ''Saturday Night Live'' spoofed it by having a Senator McCain doppelganger approving increasingly ridiculous attacks on Senator Obama.
A University of New Hampshire rhetoric professor, James Farrell, was irked as far back as the 2004 Democratic primary campaign, the first time the disclaimers were required. Then, as now, he said, advertisement writers were coming up with awkward non sequiturs just to slip in something extra.
Mr. Farrell noted a current commercial for Representative Don Cazayoux, Democrat of Louisiana, in which the candidate said, ''I'm Don Cazayoux and I approved this message because that's who I'm fighting for.'' That, Mr. Farrell said, is ''an amphiboly, a logical confusion created by a grammatical ambiguity.''
''Of course, if asked, the candidate will say he means he's fighting for the middle class,'' said Mr. Farrell, of the spot's theme. ''However, one could easily conclude that the disclaimer addition refers to the candidate himself, as in, 'I'm Don and that's who I'm fighting for.' ''
Most candidates use the moment for a declaration. Former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia approved a message in his current bid for Senate, ''because we cleaned up the mess in Virginia, and now it's time to clean up Washington.'' Senator Gordon H. Smith, Republican of Oregon, approved of ''working together across party lines -- and this ad.'' Dr. Victoria Wulsin, a Democrat challenging Representative Jean Schmidt, Republican of Ohio, approved one message ''because we've been fleeced enough.''
Several candidates use the tag to reiterate buzzwords. The comedian Al Franken, running as a Democrat for a United States Senate seat from Minnesota, used the word ''serious'' in the disclaimer of two advertisements to emphasize his sincerity about public issues. In Alabama, a Republican Congressional candidate, Jay Love, used ''Christian'' in his disclaimers -- as in ''because I think Alabama could use some Christian, conservative Alabama values'' -- to appeal to Christian voters.
Sometimes candidates use the disclaimer to take a final dig, as Dr. Wulsin did. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas tried this twice with a Republican rival, Mitt Romney, before the 2008 Iowa caucuses.
In one, he opened the advertisement with: ''I'm Mike Huckabee and I approved this message because Iowans have a right to know the truth about Mitt Romney's dishonest attacks on me and even an American hero, John McCain.'' In another, he said he approved the advertisement, ''because I believe most Americans want their next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off.''
Similarly, Angie Paccione, a Democrat who in 2006 lost to Representative Marilyn Musgrave, Republican of Colorado, approved one commercial ''because if Marilyn keeps lying about my record, I'll keep telling the truth about hers.''
''It was a way of saying, 'OK, if you're going to continue to say these things, we're going to fight back,' '' Ms. Paccione said in an interview. ''We knew we were taking a risk with it, but it was what I would say to her if I had seen her face to face. I had people stop me on the street and say, 'You go, girl.' ''
Political consultants frown on such an approach, preferring distance between the candidate and the harshest statements. Mark Putnam, whose firm writes advertisements for Democratic Senate candidates in Alaska and New Mexico this cycle, puts disclaimers in the beginning of critical commercials to create a separation between the attacks and the politicians making them.
''The candidates shouldn't be the one to deliver the summation of a negative argument,'' Mr. Putnam said.
Mr. Huckabee also used the disclaimer for humor. An advertisement titled ''Chuck Norris Approved,'' featured the actor declaring his support and closed with, ''I'm Mike Huckabee and I approved this message. So did Chuck.'' Mr. Norris is then seen shoving his fist into the camera.
Mr. Cazayoux, too, was whimsical in other commercials this year when he won an open seat in a special election. Those spots, created by Mr. Putnam, feature the candidate's parents and children making fun of him.
''I'm Don Cazayoux,'' he deadpans in one, ''and believe it or not, I approved this message.''
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LOAD-DATE: October 1, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: A Mike Huckabee commercial in 2007 closed with, ''I'm Mike Huckabee and I approved this message. So did Chuck.''
Paris Hilton in an image from a video she made that spoofed John McCain's commercials likening Barack Obama to her.(PHOTOGRAPH BY FUNNY OR DIE.COM)
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October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
G.O.P. Commercial Focuses on the Bailout...
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 569 words
The Republican National Committee began running this advertisement Monday in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. It was produced and distributed by the party's ''independent expenditure'' unit, which is prohibited from planning its advertising in coordination with the party's direct leadership or that of the campaign of Senator John McCain.
PRODUCER OnMessage Inc.
THE SCRIPT A male announcer says: ''Meltdown. Wall Street squanders our money, and Washington is forced to bail them out with -- you guessed it -- our money. Can it get any worse? Under Barack Obama's plan, the government would spend a trillion dollars more, even after the bailout. A trillion dollars. Who pays? You do. New taxes. New spending. New debt. Barack Obama's plan: It will make the problem worse. The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertisement.''
ON THE SCREEN A ''Wall Street'' street sign melts and morphs into the facade of the New York Stock Exchange, the image wobbling as if reflected in a fun house mirror before melting away to reveal the words ''Bailout with our money.'' The spot switches to a gauze-filtered image of a man and a woman apparently going over their household finances. It then shows a shadowy image of Senator Barack Obama walking in slow motion before a large crowd as a series of headlines flashes across the screen: ''Obama's Spending Plan: One trillion more after the bailout. You pay''; ''New taxes. New spending. New debt''; ''It'll make the problem worse.''
ACCURACY This spot's assertion that Mr. Obama will increase spending by $1 trillion ''after the bailout'' is not entirely accurate. Mr. Obama has said the current financial crisis means that he would probably have to reorder his budget priorities and delay some spending. But the initial figure is in dispute and was based upon a McCain campaign formulation that Mr. Obama's spending plans will add roughly $900 billion in new federal spending. The formula ignores Mr. Obama's envisioned cuts and tax policy changes. In fact, the most recent, comprehensive analysis of the candidates' spending and taxation plans, by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan group, found that the costs of Mr. Obama's plans were not necessarily that much higher than those of Mr. McCain's. If Mr. Obama's pre-crisis proposals were fully enacted, the group reported, they would add $286 billion to the annual deficit by the last budget of the next presidential term, that of 2013. If fully enacted, Mr. McCain's pre-crisis proposals would add a maximum of $246 billion to the annual deficit in 2013 and a minimum of $180 billion, according to the group. The spot is somewhat accurate in saying Mr. Obama would impose ''new taxes''; he is proposing an increase for those making more than $250,000 a year, and a tax cut for all those making less than that.
SCORECARD Voters who see this advertisement during their regular newscasts may be confused by its content: it comes as Mr. McCain is publicly advocating for the very bailout plan that is portrayed so negatively here. It is also running in markets where Mr. Obama is telling viewers, in a two-minute spot, that he intends to lower taxes for most Americans. So, all in all, it remains to be seen just how effective the commercial will be in hurting Mr. Obama, or, for that matter, in helping Mr. McCain. JIM RUTENBERG
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
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USA TODAY
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
FINAL EDITION
People share blame for bailout
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 10A
LENGTH: 843 words
Like many others, I have little pity for the executives who run these companies facing potential bailout by the government. But I have even less sympathy for the homeowners who have driven us to this point. Let me be clear: If you have a personal mortgage crisis because you have lost your job or have a sudden financial loss, you have my sympathy. But if you are one of those who have agreed to a mortgage that was beyond your means from the very beginning, shame on you ("The question now: Will it work?," Cover story, News, Monday).
I remember the first time I met with a mortgage counselor. Based upon my gross income, I would be approved for a mortgage of up to $300,000. This does not mean that I could afford a $300,000 mortgage, merely that I would be approved for one. Sure, blame the salesperson for making people aware of this, blame the economists for building such a faulty sales model, but ultimately, I blame the people too star-struck and too driven by greed to realize they couldn't afford the mortgage.
I have heard of luxury homes where people live with no furniture, but their homes are among the best-looking in the area. I have seen people spend money they do not have to upgrade landscaping, painting or lighting. This behavior is among the root causes for the bailout.
Twenty or even 10 years ago, we would bemoan the number of foreclosures and bankruptcies as indications of economic woe. But in reality, aren't we really facing a crisis of personal responsibility and accountability? Along with bailing out the people (not banks, people) who made this disastrous decision, shouldn't we also be trying to change the way we sell mortgages to prospective clients?
Or would such a dose of reality cause another financial crisis?
Bob Buccieri
Seneca Falls, N.Y.
Dipping into our pockets
Three cheers for the U.S. government trying to bail out our financial system. Easy for the lawmakers to do; they aren't spending their money ("Thankful for the government providing help," Letters, Monday).
I don't profess to have an alternative, but please let's not act as if these politicians will dig into their pockets to come up with this money. They'll be digging into yours and mine.
Bill Broring
Rochester, Minn.
Education can help reduce incarcerations
We're No. 1. Usually, that is something to be proud of, but in this case, the U.S. leads the world in prisoner incarcerations. While several experts argued the merits of having access to education while incarcerated, we should take a step back and look at what is happening in our schools ("Incarcerated getting educated," News, Thursday).
Investing our dollars in the nation's education system has proved to reduce the number of incarcerations. Perhaps these young men and women could have avoided imprisonment altogether if they had a decent public education. Investing $4,800 per child in preschool can reduce teenage arrests by 40%.
States and local jurisdictions want to be tough on crime. And that's fine. State leaders would be much further ahead, however, if they worried less about how many prison beds they have and concentrated on improving the schools and teachers they provide. To be tough on crime, be strong on education.
Tom Carroll, president
National Commission on
Teaching and America's Future; Washington
Beyond political ads
USA TODAY's editorial "McCain leads Obama in race to distort each other's records" has finally put me over the edge, and I am no longer that interested in politics in general and this election in particular (Editorial, Sept. 23).
People are fond of saying voters will pick the best candidate and are not stupid. Well, they probably won't and they are. The editorial's last sentence about the nominees proves it: "When they do (take the low road), they're essentially saying that they can't win on merit." And why can't they win on merit? Too many ignorant people are voting on the basis of the lies they hear in 30-second commercials and will believe anything if it is repeated enough.
Sentiments I have heard over the past six months: A majority of Americans favor drilling offshore and in Alaska to bring down gas prices right away. We can't have an adult conversation about our energy future. Is the United States ready for a black president?
The fact that the last question is even asked is depressing. Add the financial mess, and it's easy to feel that a democracy can't solve our problems. In November, I hope we get the government we need; I fear we will get only the one we deserve.
John Huxhold
Manchester, Mo.
Blame game continues
Democrats blame John McCain for injecting presidential politics into the negotiations for a bailout plan to save Wall Street and Main Street from economic disaster, while ignoring that their finger-pointing is also injecting presidential politics into the mix.
It's becoming clear that neither party is willing to accept responsibility for failures leading up to this debacle, nor able to provide the leadership to forge a sensible solution. America desperately needs political reform, too.
Buck Rutledge
Knoxville, Tenn.
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USA TODAY
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
FINAL EDITION
McCain, Obama offer ideas for rescue package;
Both want raise in federal deposit insurance limit
BYLINE: Martha T. Moore and David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 404 words
Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain pitched their own ideas Tuesday for rescuing the financial rescue plan that failed to pass Congress.
McCain and Obama both proposed raising the federal deposit insurance limit, from $100,000 to $250,000.
Speaking in Reno, the Illinois Democrat also proposed a "financial stability fee" on all Wall Street transactions to reimburse the government for losses resulting from the proposed federal takeover of bad assets. The fee would be set by the president and could become permanent, spokesman Bill Burton said.
Both candidates spoke to President Bush on Tuesday, the day after the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion plan to shore up credit markets and boost sagging financial institutions. They plan to be in Washington tonight when the Senate takes up a new version of the plan.
McCain urged the Bush administration to take action on its own. If credit markets freeze up before Congress acts, Americans from college students to small-business owners will have trouble getting loans to keep going, McCain told a business roundtable in Des Moines.
"We are in the greatest financial crisis of our lifetimes," the Arizona Republican said. "Congressional inaction has put every American and the entire economy at the gravest risk."
McCain said the Treasury Department should use an already-approved $1 trillion fund to buy up bad mortgages. He also said Treasury should use its "exchange stabilization fund" to help insure money market funds. The fund is an emergency reserve normally used to influence foreign currency exchange rates.
On the trail, the candidates said they did not want to cast blame for the financial crisis and urged bipartisan action. "There will be time to punish those who set this fire, but now is the moment for us to come together and put the fire out," Obama said.
At the same time, the campaigns and political parties released TV ads pinning culpability for the faltering economy on the opposition.
A McCain ad quotes a Washington Post editorial as saying Obama was "notably silent" when McCain called for reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2006. The federal government took over the mortgage giants Sept. 7. A GOP ad released Tuesday says Obama wants "new taxes, new spending, new debt."
Obama, in a two-minute ad outlining his economic proposals, says that people making less than $250,000 a year "won't see your taxes raised one penny."
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The Washington Post
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Met 2 Edition
Nov. 4 Isn't the Only Election Day;
Campaigns Adjust as Early Voting Rises
BYLINE: Mary Pat Flaherty; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1287 words
In Columbus, college students pitched tents overnight so they could be first to vote. Advocates in Cleveland shuttled voters from homeless shelters to the polls. In Akron, voters arrived as soon as the doors were unlocked and waited in folding chairs for their turn.
Yesterday opened Ohio's unusual week-long window in which voters can register and cast absentee ballots at the same time. Hundreds arrived in steady streams, part of a first wave of people already voting across the country, five weeks before Election Day.
Given Ohio's pivotal role in presidential races, its one-stop registration and voting drew attention -- and legal challenges.
But nationally, early voting, by mail or in person, is becoming more common and is likely to account for one-third of all votes cast in the November elections, up from 14 percent in 2000, predicts Paul Gronke, a researcher with the Early Voting Information Center in Portland, Ore.
That projection tracks with growth that three other election analysts have noted, with the rate of early voting rising from 20 percent in 2004 to 25 percent in 2006. Experts and state election officials have followed the growth in early voting for more than a decade.
The change has not been lost on the campaigns, whose strategists have adjusted their operations mightily to woo those who cast ballots early, viewing them as electoral gold -- captured votes.
"Every vote we get in early is one less to run down on Election Day," said Alex Conant, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
With that same view, the Obama campaign debuted an ad in Ohio on Friday explicitly aimed at early voters. "It was engineered just for that purpose, and it is the sort of thing you see campaigns doing more of," said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which monitors ad spending.
The early-voting trend does not benefit one party over the other, experts say, because each is targeting infrequent voters. On the Democratic side, that means urban, often minority voters and students. On the Republican side, it is older voters and those in more rural areas who favor absentee ballots.
For both campaigns, the numbers are critical. In the highly competitive states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, nearly half of voters are expected to cast ballots early this year, Gronke said.
In Ohio, early voting has shaped the candidates' operations.
Richard Kidd, a Dayton barber who volunteers with the Barack Obama campaign's community outreach effort, promised to drive customers at his shop to an early-voting site if they wanted to lock in their choices ahead of Election Day. Even before the voting began yesterday, Kidd had more than 100 voters committed.
"I wanted to make sure people who wanted to vote didn't feel stressed out that day," Kidd said.
Downstate in heavily Republican Lebanon, Lori Viars has been part of a "chase" program that mails John McCain literature to likely supporters who asked the county for an absentee ballot. The McCain team has mailed out 1 million absentee applications, and now Viars coordinates with the banks of callers who are following up, hoping to secure early votes.
Yesterday, she said, her e-mail was full of reminders about early voting and appeals for volunteers to sign up and start working now.
The effort to turn out early voters, she said, "is bigger than I've ever seen it."
This is the first presidential election in which Ohio voters do not have to provide an excuse to get an absentee ballot. But in the West, early voting took root in the 1980s, when election officials wanted to attract new voters and retain those who had become discouraged by long waits and time-consuming ballots bloated with referendum issues.
With each election cycle, the practice has moved eastward as states have adjusted voting rules to accommodate voters seeking convenience.
Thirty-one states -- not including Maryland, Virginia or the District -- allow no-excuse early voting. Others allow absentee voting, by mail or in person, only with an excuse. In Oregon, all voting is done by mail.
Benjamin Ginsberg, a longtime Republican strategist, said that over the past few presidential races, "there has been a dawning awareness" of the opportunity early voting presents to campaigns.
Obama and McCain campaign officials wouldn't detail their strategies. But experts say that generally, early voting requires campaigns to recalibrate the pace of their spending, arranging big ad buys, literature drops and volunteer canvassing weeks before Election Day.
"As soon as the window opens, you have to move. You want to be reaching out with the full weight of your message," said Geoff Garin, a strategist for Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential run. "The idea of a closing argument is quaint, if not antiquated."
During Democrat John F. Kerry's 2004 campaign, close to half of the expenditures for field operations in Iowa went toward locking down absentee voters, said John Norris, who was Kerry's state director there. "Significant amounts are spent up front," he said.
Drawing out a campaign, however, can strain an operation.
"The greatest price you pay is wear and tear on your volunteer base," said Patricia McCaig, a Democratic strategist who has worked for a decade in Oregon. "You aren't working to get out the vote just for those last 72 hours. You are doing it for weeks, and it's hard to sustain energy and enthusiasm."
Experts say they cannot point to a national contest in which early votes determined the outcome, but they say it has figured heavily into a few races.
Four years ago in New Mexico, Kerry booked a sizable pool of absentee voters, catching Republicans off guard and driving them to the last-minute get-out-the-vote effort that allowed them to carry the state.
The risks of early voting, according to some election analysts, include increased potential for fraud and voter error: Outside official polling places, it is easier for voters to obtain multiple ballots or to be improperly influenced in casting their votes, and there is no mechanism to alert them to mistakes on their ballots. It also carries the possibility of buyer's remorse if there are late surprises in the campaign, because in most states, there is no opportunity to take back a ballot once it has been cast.
But early voting has been encouraged by election officials, who see it as a way to reduce long lines and confusion on Election Day.
Officials in Franklin County, Ohio, which includes Columbus, launched a radio and TV campaign to encourage absentee voting after they saw hours-long waits in the March primary, and they have reported a record 117,000 requests for absentee ballots.
Based on the Columbus turnout yesterday, county officials expect between 10,000 and 12,000 early voters.
Court fights, which have turned into a bitter and continuing battle in Ohio, underscore just how important early voting has become, with Republicans challenging decisions by Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.
An effort to block the one-stop registration and voting window was rejected by the state Supreme Court on Monday.
In a pending case, Republicans argue that they will lose votes because Brunner has advised local elections boards not to honor absentee ballot requests if voters failed to check a box on the form affirming that they are qualified to vote.
The chance to cast a ballot early appealed to a range of Ohio voters.
When Oberlin College offered to bus students to register and vote, 600 of its 2,800 students were on board.
Obama supporter Joe Staley, a seasoned voter and high school government teacher in Dayton, said he sees early voting as a way to start building enthusiasm for his candidate.
"I wanted to get out there," he said, "and get the momentum going."
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The Washington Post
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
Candidates Follow Up on Plan;
Both Men Talk to President, as Well as Members of Their Parties in Congress
BYLINE: Anne E. Kornblut and Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 769 words
After watching the spectacular defeat of a $700 billion financial rescue plan in the House on Monday, Sen. Barack Obama yesterday accelerated his effort to sell the proposal, seeking to redress what his advisers believe has been a failure by the White House to adequately explain the plan.
Both Obama and his rival for the presidency, Sen. John McCain, called yesterday for the FDIC insurance limit to be raised to protect as much as $250,000 per bank account, a suggestion that was adopted as an emergency measure later in the day. McCain, at an economic roundtable in Des Moines, said that "we cannot allow a crisis in our financial system to become a crisis in confidence."
Both Obama and McCain also called President Bush on Tuesday morning, according to White House aides and the two campaigns. McCain said he urged the president to tap the Treasury Department's $250 billion Exchange Stabilization Fund to help shore up financial institutions, as well as to exercise new authority to buy as much as $1 trillion in mortgages.
"I encouraged him to use this fund as creatively as possible," McCain said of the stabilization fund.
White House spokesman Tony Fratto described both calls as "constructive," saying the nominees were offering to proceed with caution to avoid derailing any progress. "They know they're in delicate discussions, and they don't want to put out proposals that would make it more difficult to get legislation passed," Fratto said.
Obama also sought to put new pressure on some of the 95 Democrats who voted to defeat the bill, calling members whom he might be able to influence. His effort came as McCain continued to call Republican members of the House.
Obama's focus, his senior advisers said, is on using vivid language on the campaign trail to convey how the package would affect voters' lives -- in the hope of increasing public support for it and leading reluctant lawmakers in both parties to switch their votes.
Campaigning in Nevada on Tuesday, Obama rejected the loaded term "bailout" -- a phrase that has been abandoned by the White House because of the connotation that it would help the perpetrators of the meltdown -- and said that if the plan were designed to save "a few big banks on Wall Street, it would be one thing."
"But that's not what it means," Obama said. "What it means is that if we do not act, it will be harder for you to get a mortgage for your home or the loans you need to buy a car or send your children to college. . . . Millions of jobs could be lost. A long and painful recession could follow."
He attempted to reframe the bill from the idea of just handing $700 billion to Wall Street, and he said the plan had been "misunderstood and poorly communicated."
"When it's called a bailout, nobody is in favor of a bailout," Obama said.
McCain, still stung by the defeat of a compromise he had championed, changed the subject slightly on Tuesday to focus on tax policy, hammering Obama with the oft-repeated charge that the Democratic nominee would raise taxes.
McCain also released another ad playing off of the collapse of housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and underscoring the call for greater regulation he made two years earlier. The ad includes a surprise guest: former president Bill Clinton, with footage of an interview in which Clinton said Democrats share responsibility for not enacting stiffer oversight in past Congresses.
"I think the responsibility that the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was president to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Clinton said in the Sept. 25 interview on ABC's "Good Morning America."
At the same time, the Republican National Committee released an ad on McCain's behalf that seemed to suggest that McCain opposes passage of a rescue package. "Wall Street squanders our money, and Washington is forced to bail them out with -- you guessed it -- our money. Can it get any worse?" the ad says.
Asked to reconcile McCain's call for bipartisanship with the tough rhetoric coming from the RNC and the campaign, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds replied: "Just because we need a rescue plan doesn't mean we're going to allow Barack Obama to run around the country misrepresenting his previous proposals for punitive tax increases on businesses."
McCain and Obama will return to Washington this afternoon so that they can vote on the rescue bill, aides to both men's campaigns said last night. The Senate is expected to take up the bill as early as tonight.
Staff writer Perry Bacon Jr. contributed to this report.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Charlie Neibergall -- Associated Press; Sen. John McCain, who was at a small-business roundtable in Des Moines, phoned President Bush and urged him to tap the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
IMAGE; By Jason Reed -- Reuters; Sen. Barack Obama, shown after a rally in Reno, Nev., called for the FDIC insurance limit to be raised.
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The Washington Post
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
Shooting From the Hip, With a Smile to Boot
BYLINE: Libby Copeland; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 2019 words
The heart of Sarah Palin's appeal is --
Wait, did you see that? There! She did it again: wrinkled up her nose in a way that either looks like a sneer or is adorably reminiscent of Samantha from "Bewitched." Depending on whom you talk to.
Next time you see a clip of the Republican vice presidential nominee, try this exercise. Mute your TV and just watch that face. How often do you see someone in political life so extravagantly expressive? The eyebrows go up, the shoulder leans in, the thumb jauntily gestures backward, the tongue actually fixes in the cheek. To mock Barack Obama, she licks her finger and holds it to the imaginary wind! And that smile, that nearly ever-present smile, which either indicates -- oh, dear, here we go again -- that she's sarcastic and dismissive or that she's letting you in on a very clever joke.
People love her so. People hate her so. At the heart of it is the delivery, a style of speaking we'll see again in tomorrow night's debate, a style that reaches past folksy and veers into the territory of -- to hell with it, cue the charges of sexism -- cute.
"She's perky, she's spunky," says Republican speechwriter Landon Parvin, who has written for both Presidents Bush. "She has this quality -- in a 1950s comedy, her father would call her 'Button.' "
And?
"This allows her to get away with murder," he says.
* * *
All you wannabe hockey moms who imagine yourselves having coffee with Sarah Palin and swapping five-minute dinner recipes? Who find it endearing when Palin refers to her husband as "my guy"? Who like the smiling certainty in her tone, the determination in her squint? This is for you.
And all you Pal-lergics who dislike not only her hard-edged politics but that spoonful of sugar she serves it with? Who say her manner reminds you of -- we'll quote here from a Pal-lergic named Judi Dickerson who coaches actors on dialogue -- "the snotty head cheerleader in high school who was untouchable because she was always gonna win"? This is for you, too.
Sarah Palin is many things -- somber is not one of them. There's something about her delivery that suggests she's almost always having fun. You know how they call Joe Biden the happy warrior? Palin has a similar quality -- the ability to attack without seeming angry. Some of that is the smile on her face and the evident humor in her voice, as Sheila Tate, Nancy Reagan's former press secretary, points out.
But there's a lot more at work. It starts with the way Palin's delivery allows her to leap through the camera into your living room. Perhaps in part because of her background as a television reporter and beauty pageant competitor, she seems to understand how the camera works.
"What she knows is that the camera is a thief," says Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, who has worked for former House speaker Dennis Hastert and former Senate majority leader Trent Lott, among others. "The camera will steal your emotions and make you flat, and what she's doing is over-emphasizing her emotions, over-emphasizing her delivery, in order to get that realness across to the camera."
The realness is what her fans talk about -- that she's like them, that she doesn't seem contrived. "We feel like she talks like we do," says Susan Geary, a Richmond retiree who attended a McCain-Palin rally in Fairfax last month. "Like she's sitting in your kitchen."
There's a consistency to Palin's appeal -- if you go back and look at old clips of her, you see many of the same stylistic elements -- the warmth and the eager delivery, the voice that drops and rises emphatically, the dropped g's.
"That's been her bread and butter for 20 years, from the day she sat down in front of the TV cameras to do her sportscasting," says Anchorage-based pollster Ivan Moore. "Her success in her political career has been based on being able to project this enormously friendly, enormously appealing physical presence -- and, some people would argue, use it to conceal this very much more ruthless and nakedly political character."
Palin's fans are drawn to her story, that folk-hero combination of caribou-hunting toughness and traditional femininity that John McCain's campaign has played up. For many Palin supporters, her attractiveness does not weaken her appeal -- rather, it balances those tales of aggression on the tundra. Supporters have charged her critics with sexism but at the same time, at the GOP convention, delegates wore buttons that said "Hottest VP From the Coolest State." For a while, Cindy McCain was introducing Palin as a "true Western woman," evoking images of pretty prairie wives with rifles who could out-hunt their husbands and still get dinner on the table. (Hot chicks with guns being a beloved American archetype.)
They are also drawn to the notion of Palin's PTA-mom-just-like-you-ness, which is enhanced by the hair, which has not been cut short in the style of many political women, and the voice, which has not been brought down to a deeper register, or stripped of its Alaska-by-way-of-middle-America nasality. Palin does more than mention her five children as biographical fact in appearances -- she also speaks in mom language. What other major political figure would attempt what she said at her welcome-home rally in Fairbanks last month?
"I see some of our staff members here and cabinet members," she told the audience at a rally. "I can't wait to give you guys a hug."
Palin's huggability is evidence of her accessibility -- or of her lack of gravitas, depending on where you sit. When she met Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari in New York recently, he called her "gorgeous" and joked he might hug her. In response, she laughed.
Much of Palin's appeal -- as well as what some find grating-- is about the language she chooses, which is folksy in the extreme. She says "heck" and "darn" and "gosh" and "shoot" and "oh, gee." She says, "Guys and gals, our regulatory system is outdated." And: The nation's financial system "needs some shakin' up and some fixin'." She pronounces things "awesome" and "cool," as in: "He's an awesome bundle of joy" (baby Trig) and "It was so cool growin' up in this church and gettin' saved here" (the Wasilla Assembly of God). The critics -- she calls 'em "haters."
Could central casting produce a more ideal messenger for the new Republican populism?
"I'm sure she's not from Alaska -- she's been sitting on a Hollywood sound stage for years waiting for this," says Paul Costello, the former press aide to Rosalynn Carter and Kitty Dukakis. "She's so unbelievably perfect. . . . Even the red ruby shoes that she's been wearing."
In speeches, Palin's comedic timing is spot-on and her intonation is exaggerated, sweeping her audience along on the current of her message. "Very story-timey," says John Neffinger, a communications consultant who coaches corporate speakers and Democratic congressional candidates. "She varies her intonation all over the place so you know exactly what feelings she's trying to convey. Lots of warmth, very singsongy."
In the few interviews she has given, or when taking questions from voters, Palin speaks with speed and a rat-a-tat delivery, as if a pause were a sign of weakness. Sometimes she drops her voice to a rock-and-roll growl. Her hands move in concert, pointing to her lips, jabbing over her shoulder. Her delivery is "decisive, task-focused," says Ken Brousseau, who consults with executive search firm Korn/Ferry International on corporate leadership styles. "Very black and white." Contrast that with Barack Obama's more deliberative style, his long "uuuhs," his concessions to the opposition. ("John, you're absolutely right," in the presidential debate, over and over.)
When she's forced outside her comfort zone, as has happened more than a few times of late, Palin tends to "slip back to her talking points," as CBS's Katie Couric recently put it. John McCain is a maverick. Lots of things need some shakin' up. Palin may try to turn a question around ("In what respect, Charlie?") or stall when asked for examples to bolster her argument ("I'll try to find you some and I'll bring 'em to ya!").
"Forgive me, Mrs. Palin," faux Katie Couric said to faux Sarah Palin on last week's "Saturday Night Live," "but it seems to me that when cornered you become increasingly adorable."
There's a youthfulness and an enthusiasm there -- Palin is all emoticons; Rachael Ray as candidate for higher office. (When she ran for mayor of Wasilla in 1996, her campaign ad boasted upbeat, jazzy music and a slogan reminiscent of daytime TV: "Positively Sarah.") She speaks with supreme confidence (Ya can't blink, Charlie). On Monday, she said she looked forward to meeting Senate veteran Joe Biden at their debate.
"I've been hearing about his Senate speeches since I was in, like, the second grade," she told an audience in Columbus, Ohio -- emphasizing her youth, as well as suggesting an unusual attentiveness to the earliest speeches of Biden, who was sworn in when she was 8.
Perhaps, suggests former Miss America Kate Shindle, an undecided Republican, there's a touch of the pageant world to Palin's voice, to her careful adherence to sound bites, and that "cheerful aggressiveness" that Shindle calls "part cheerleader, part news anchor and part drill sergeant."
The confidence is underscored by something Palin does frequently at the ends of her sentences. She sets her lips in forceful line (perfectly captured by Tina Fey in her first "Saturday Night Live" impersonation) as if to communicate that the matter is settled.
Now mute the television again. Watch Palin's body. She expresses excitement through encouraging nods as well as what Karen Bradley -- a University of Maryland dance professor who studies body movement -- calls this "little shoulder wiggle." And watch that nose wiggle -- which Parvin, the Republican speechwriter, says sometimes conveys "a cute determination" and sometimes "a cute distastefulness." And sometimes, it operates as a sort of "exclamation point," conveying agreement, he says. He calls her "Gidget goes to Washington."
"She is playing into a cultural stereotype," says Drew Westen, a psychiatry professor at Emory University who also works as a Democratic consultant and wrote "The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation." And the stereotype? Westen cites Marlo Thomas in "That Girl," Mary Tyler Moore in "The Dick Van Dyke Show," Sally Field in "The Flying Nun" -- a model of perky femininity that "was really salient in the early '60s before the sexual revolution and the cultural revolution took hold."
These physical and rhetorical habits set Palin in relief to Hillary Clinton, who projected great strength but much less of what one Democratic political consultant calls "traditional feminine warmth." Which was why it caused such a splash when Clinton once told a crowd, "I'm your girl" -- there is little that's girly about Hillary Clinton's public persona. Palin calls herself a "gal" and it's utterly believable -- for better or worse.
"She's not a woman trying to deliver a speech like a man, and there is an integrity to that," says Parvin.
And all of which means Sarah Palin is either great or awful, depending on whom you talk to, because her style and her conservative beliefs are either post-feminist or the antithesis of feminism. If Palin's cuteness is disarming to her supporters, it is troubling to those who worry that she lacks intellectual heft, and infuriating to those who feel she's being coddled. Not too long ago, CNN anchor Campbell Brown suggested the McCain campaign was being sexist by shielding Palin from interviews. Acting coach Dickerson suggests that Palin gets to be as nakedly political as any other candidate while being shielded from retaliation because of the perception that she is, after all, just a gal.
"You have a very glamorous, pretty woman with, actually, a very girly delivery -- but what comes out of her are the words of a very savvy, very tough politician," says Dickerson. "It creates a mixed message of allowing her to really say anything that she wants."
Who decides what's fair? Sarah Palin is hugging us all into confusion.
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IMAGE; By Mark Lyons -- Getty Images
IMAGE; By Susan Walsh -- Associated Press
IMAGE; By Rick Wilking -- Reuters; As a former beauty queen and sportscaster, the Republican veep nominee knows how to play to the camera.
IMAGE; By Eric Risberg -- Associated Press; Mom language: "I can't wait to give you guys a hug," Sarah Palin tells staffers at a welcome-home rally in Fairbanks.
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The Washington Post
October 1, 2008 Wednesday
Met 2 Edition
A Two-Pronged Push To Aid Ailing Banks
BYLINE: Binyamin Appelbaum and Carrie Johnson; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1243 words
Two federal agencies moved yesterday to ease the financial pressure on banks even as Congress continued to debate the wisdom of a broader intervention.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said it would ask Congress to extend the government's guarantee of bank deposits beyond the current limit of $100,000 on each standard account, hoping to convince queasy depositors that there is no need to pull money from troubled banks.
Meanwhile, securities regulators and accounting rule-makers granted banks greater power to decide the value of their investments, even if market data suggest that prices should be lower. That could allow some banks to report smaller losses, perhaps comforting investors.
The carefully calibrated moves are trial balloons from an administration under intense pressure. Regulators, convinced that financial firms' problems are becoming economic problems, are searching for ways to help the financial industry without further provoking an angry public -- or its elected representatives in Congress.
If successful, yesterday's moves could stanch the bleeding at commercial banks in two ways: limiting their losses as the value of their mortgage investments declines and as customers withdraw deposits.
But both proposals drew quick criticism as attempts to hide rather than solve the industry's problems. An increase in the deposit guarantee also could have the effect of sheltering banks from their own mistakes by making it easier to retain depositors. And the accounting proposal has been described by critics as a way to allow banks to conceal losses.
"These veiled attempts to return to older, flawed cost-accounting methods will do more harm than good by allowing financial services companies to obscure deterioration in their balance sheets and avoid charges necessary to ensure that their income statements reflects their true economic performance," Donn Vickrey of Gradient Analytics, a market research firm, wrote in a note to clients.
The events yesterday again highlighted the increased prominence of FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair, who has taken a lead role in the government's response as the financial crisis spreads from Wall Street to infect retail and commercial banks.
Bair in the past week has engineered deals to sell Washington Mutual to J.P. Morgan Chase and Wachovia to Citigroup. Now she is trying to forestall any additional fire sales. Washington Mutual and Wachovia, two of the nation's largest banks, were forced into the hands of federal regulators in part because reports of ill health led depositors to withdraw money the banks needed to survive.
Bair placed a call yesterday morning to Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, to tell him that she planned to send Congress a formal request for the insurance increase because of concern about bank runs. Congress would have to vote to change the law.
The cap has not been raised since 1980, while average balances have climbed. Small businesses, in particular, often keep large account balances. As a result, only 63 percent of bank deposits now fit under the FDIC's umbrella.
"Unfortunately, there is an increasing crisis of confidence that is feeding unnecessary fear in the marketplace," Bair said in a statement. "To address this crisis of confidence, I do believe that it would be helpful for the FDIC to have the temporary ability to raise deposit insurance limits."
An FDIC spokesman said the agency was not supporting any particular number for a new cap, and it did not specify how long the increase should last. Those decisions will be left up to Congress. Leaders in both parties, including both presidential candidates, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.), have called for a cap of $250,000. That higher limit already applies to retirement accounts.
Any increase in the ceiling would require an expansion of the FDIC's insurance fund. The fund is replenished by an assessment on the banking industry, not taxpayers, but higher assessments would limit the amount of money banks have available to make loans.
Some experts warned that $250,000 is an arbitrary number. William Isaac, a former FDIC chairman, said many small businesses would still have deposits in excess of that ceiling. Government data show that almost a quarter of bank deposits would remain uninsured.
Isaac said the government instead should emulate its recent guarantee of money-market mutual funds by announcing that it will guarantee all bank deposits for the duration of the financial crisis.
"Increasing FDIC insurance coverage to $250,000 is a serious mistake," Isaac said. "The government just last week said it would insure 100 percent of money-market accounts, and now they're going to toss a $250,000 bone to banks?"
Yesterday's second front was opened by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which, together with the Financial Accounting Standards Board, issued what it called a "clarification" to provisions that have come under fire from bank executives and some lawmakers for contributing to the credit crisis.
Under an accounting standard that took effect in November, businesses are required to employ "fair value" accounting, meaning that at regular intervals they must adjust the value of assets to reflect market prices even if they do not intend to sell those assets for a long time, perhaps until prices have recovered.
The standard, also known as "mark to market," has forced banks in recent months to take big losses as other banks sell assets at fire-sale prices, driving down values throughout the market. That in turn has sometimes required banks to raise money to meet regulatory requirements that they keep enough capital on hand to cover potential losses.
Lobbyists for the American Bankers Association and the Financial Services Roundtable urged the SEC in a meeting last week to suspend or relax the accounting provision. A similar advocacy effort continues on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers are redrafting bailout legislation.
Yesterday's move does not go as far as the industry would like. The three-page joint statement from the SEC and FASB just gives companies more leeway to assign their own values in cases where markets are "disorderly" or seized by liquidity problems. It also gives companies more room to insist that declines in the value of assets are only temporary, allowing them to defer even larger write-downs.
Regulators also reminded companies yesterday that in exchange for being able to use more estimates and judgment, the need to disclose their valuation methods to investors is all the more important. The SEC sent letters reminding firms of their obligations twice already this year, in March and September, after expressing concern that many financial institutions were using opaque measurements.
Banking groups cheered the changes, which they said had been growing in urgency because the third fiscal quarter for many companies ended yesterday.
"This is a significant first step and adds stability, confidence and liquidity within the capital markets," said Steve Bartlett, chief executive of the Financial Services Roundtable.
But trade groups representing audit firms and financial analysts warned against going further.
The Center for Audit Quality, a coalition of 800 accounting firms, pointed out in a letter to members of Congress yesterday that inflated valuations only made the savings-and-loan scandal of the 1980s all the more "devastating when the bubble finally burst."
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Washingtonpost.com
October 1, 2008 Wednesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Dan Balz, Washington Post Chief Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2865 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post chief political reporter Dan Balz was online Wednesday, Oct. 1 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
____________________
Dan Balz: Good morning to everyone. Another busy day in Washington, with the Senate scheduled to vote on the economic rescue package and many eyes on the financial and credit markets. Senators Obama, McCain and Biden will have to vote on the package so they'll be back in town later. Governor Palin is doing her debate prep in Arizona in advance of Thursday's big event in St. Louis. Time to get started.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.: Isn't it disingenuous for Sarah Palin to reference Joe Biden's age when John McCain is six years older?
Dan Balz: Katie Couric asked her about that in the interview that aired last night on CBS. Governor Palin said no, it wasn't a reference to age. She said Biden has experience while she is a fresh face, a new person. She said that's the contrast she was drawing.
_______________________
Asheville, N.C.: Seems to me members in Congress are in a no-win situation. If they approve a bailout/rescue and avert a crisis, then political opponents gleefully will claim the absence of the crisis proves the bail-out was unnecessary. On the other hand, if they vote down the bill and a crisis erupts, they get blamed for that too. However, if you can tune out the experts predicting doom and find a few telling you what you want to hear, then a winning possibility shimmers into view -- vote against the bailout and hope a crisis does not occur. In that scenario, you look like a genius. Regardless of the likelihood of that scenario, isn't the psychology of the situation as obvious as the wisdom of a 50-year, negative-amortization mortgage?
Dan Balz: You've got a lot of thoughts tucked into that question. Clearly it's a tough vote for members of Congress, given the uncertainty of the economy and how it will respond to Secretary Paulson's plan, if finally approved. Some members voted no on Monday and hoped there wouldn't be the response by the market that there was. There may be fewer who want to take that risk on a more permanent basis.
_______________________
Annapolis, Md.: Let's say that McCain and Palin win. Does that mean we are back to the secret email accounts and hidden agenda that we have had to suffer through for the past eight years?
washingtonpost.com: Palin Had Another Private E-Mail Account, Company Says (Post, Oct. 1)
Dan Balz: Not necessarily.
_______________________
Danielson, Conn.: Haven't each of the presidential candidates failed to show leadership during the financial crisis? And didn't we have a right to expect more from them, given there past history of independence and bipartisanship? The election seems to have diminished both of them.
Dan Balz: The fact is that neither has a direct role to play here, other than using the forum of their campaigns to try to guide the negotiators, members of Congress and voters. Both have tried and to limited effect, though theytried in quite different ways. McCain has been criticized for what he did last week. Obama has been criticized, though less harshly, for the way he's handled it. Neither has the powers of a president and neither is in the leadership of the Senate. So they do what they can do. That said, it's likely all of this will have some impact on the campaign. We're already seeing what appears to be a shift toward Obama of uncertain size.
_______________________
Floris, Va.: The internals of the new Post poll you wrote about today shows that you interviewed significantly more Republicans and fewer African Americans than last week. Were you intimidated by the yelps from the McCain campaign after last week's polling or is the new data base a correct adjustment. If so, what do you base it on?
washingtonpost.com: Most Voters Worry About Economy (Post, Oct. 1)
Dan Balz: The methodolgy is the same, except in the previous poll we did what's called an oversample of African Americans. That is designed to give us enough black voters to be able to say how what they think about different questions. But in the overall numbers, they are weighted to their share of the population. As for the split between Republicans and Democrats, that varies a bit from poll to poll, although generally not dramatically enough to change the findings significantly. So no, we did not make any adjustments in the way we conducted the poll.
_______________________
Dunn Loring, Va.: If even the supposedly objective moderator of her debate is writing a book praising Obama, and stands to earn more money if Obama wins, why is it improper for Gov. Palin to wonder if the media might be against her?
Dan Balz: Gwen Ifill is a long-time friend and colleague. She also is a total professional. I believe any criticism of her over this book is totally misplaced. She is promoting nobody's candidacy. Whether Barack Obama wins or loses this campaign, his candidacy has been a breakthrough in terms of African Americans and politics. That story is worthy of a book no matter what the outcome of the election. Gwen is ideally suited to write the story of the evolution of political leadership within the African American community.
_______________________
Hampton Cove, Ala.: Dan, call me skeptical, but last week your ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Obama up by 9 was big news, and many said it was why McCain pulled his "stunt." A new Post poll yesterday showed Obama's head had shrunken to only 4 percentage points, but that was not on the washingtonpost.com homepage or ABC News. Instead, the Gwen Ifill poll-pickers have gone with the Quinnpiac Poll, which always has favored Obama. Have you ever heard of a case where ABC and The Washignton Post ignore their own polls?
Dan Balz: The new poll was on the front page of the Post today and as far as I know was on the home page last night.
_______________________
Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. I've noticed Obama surrogates starting to use the word "erratic" in describing John McCain. But they're not "flooding the zone" with that word either. Do you think that word is a talking point, or have a couple of Obama surrogates out of a dozen or more just happened to use the word? (I guess I'm using a specific case to ask a general question about the process by which a campaign gets its message of the day out. I wonder how tightly scripted it is.)
Dan Balz: Campaigns send out talking points to a wide list of surrogates and so it's possible that this is part of the Obama team's current set. Sometimes surrogates pick up ideas and language from the general chatter and recycle it. It could be either.
_______________________
Chicago: Michael D. Shear has a piece in The Post today about McCain appearing combative in a meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board. One of the topics the board challenged McCain on was the "sex ed for kindergartners" ad. I'd like to point out something on that topic that largely has gone unreported. The Centers for Disease Control has funded a policy for years that calls for HIV education at all levels, K-12. The same CDC policy language shows up in board of education policy documents in places like Tennessee and Alabama. So the Illinois bill hardly was unusual in this regard.
washingtonpost.com: Candidates Follow Up on Plan (Post, Oct. 1)
Dan Balz: Thanks. Posted without comment.
_______________________
Anonymous: Paulson's plan was three pages. The House plan was 111 pages. Now the Senate plan is 451 pages. Are House members upset that the Senate has brought this bill up first?
Dan Balz: House members may be glad to see the Senate go first this time. They're little shell-shocked after what happened Monday. You might wonder how many senators are pleased at going first!
_______________________
Washington: I am an Obama supporter, but I am a little troubled by the revelation that Gwen Ifill has written a book that no doubt will portray Obama positively and included his cooperation. We hold government officials accountable for even the appearance of impropriety, and it seems here that Ifill is perilously close to the edge.
Indeed, if Palin gets knocked off her stride by an Ifill question or two on Thursday night, the GOP will scream bloody murder regarding Ifill's objectivity. And, frankly, I think the GOPers would have a more than legitimate claim. I am aware of some of the counterarguments, especially that the book was not a state secret and that the GOP could have objected earlier, but I do think there remains a whiff of favoritism. What do you think?
Dan Balz: See my earlier answer on this. This book has been in the works for many, many, many months and was, as you note, not a secret. I think you can look at Gwen's work throughout this campaign and answer the question of whether she's been even-handed. She has and will continue to ask tough questions of everyone.
_______________________
Dunn Loring, Va.: Are you aware of any reporters, including at The Post, who are planning to write a book about the presidential campaign? Of those, how many are assigned to the Obama campaign?
Dan Balz: I am writing a book about the campaign and have had a contract for more than a year. My co-author is Haynes Johnson, a Pulitzer-prize winning ex-Post reporter and author who teaches at the University of Maryland. It is a broad book about the campaign and the country during what we believe is one of the most critical elections in modern history. I know of several others at other organizations who are writing books about the campaign.
This has been one of the most interesting and consequential campaigns we've all witnessed -- a truly remarkable story -- and I believe worthy not just of one or two books but potentially many. There is a book in Obama's candidacy. There is a book in Senator Clinton's campaign. There is certainly a book about Senator McCain's amazing rollercoaster of a campaign. There's a book about the country in historic times. Lots of stories to be told from this campaign.
_______________________
Riverdale, N.Y.: Mr. Balz, you've been at this game for many years, so this probably sounds like a naive comment, but doesn't it look like this presidential election is the most minutely-examined and painstakingly overanalyzed one we've ever had? We've got state-by-state examinations of minutia, like how many white single women are supporting Gov. Palin in Eastern Wisconsin, and the like.
I don't think we've ever seen this degree of overkill before; it's paralysis by analysis, sort of like people in the Middle Ages arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. We've got a month to go, and I'm getting a headache. After a while, it's just getting the people out to vote. Remember when someone hired Yogi Berra to teach hitting, and instead of giving a lengthy dissertion on how the hitter should stride and where your hands should be, he just said "hell, give me that bat and watch me," whacking line drives all over the place. As of today, this doesn't look like a landslide for anybody, so who looks more likely to get their people out to the polls? That's what I want to know.
Dan Balz: Your point is well taken. We all can get pretty deeply into the weeds looking for THE answer to the question of what's going to happen. Your question is also good and unanswerable at the point, except to note that the Obama campaign has a huge voter mobilization operation around the country, with volunteers and paid staffers. However, the proof of its prowess doesnt come until election day. The Republicans did a terrific job of this in 2004, so they know how if they're as well organized this year. At this point, people give an edge to Obama's operation, but so much of this is invisible until the day it really counts.
_______________________
Baltimore: I heard yesterday that Gwen Ifill had fallen and broken her ankle. Isn't air travel a bad idea with a freshly-broken bone? Will she be able to make it to St. Louis? Who's her backup if she can't?
washingtonpost.com: Gwen Ifill Breaks Ankle (TV Newser, Sept. 30)
Dan Balz: Yes, it's true. Gwen fell at home on Monday night, but the last I heard she was planning to go to St. Louis and moderate the debate.
_______________________
Re: Palin and the (Unnamed) Media: Hi Dan. What was your take on Palin's comments in the CBS interview about what she reads -- specifically her claiming that she reads all papers and magazines, whatever is put before her, but failing to name a single one? I couldn't tell whether she was afraid to say The Post or the Times because those are ostensibly part of the "liberal media elite" that she has complained about, or whether she honestly couldn't think of any papers.
Dan Balz: I'd like to think she reads the Post online and other papers as well. I don't know why she didn't name a few publications.
_______________________
Rolla, Mo.: I've been reading that during Palin's debates in Alaska, she was quite good. However, she had a tendency to avoid answering specific points in favor of using anecdotes to connect with viewers. The McCain camp's push for the traditional format for the vice presidential debate really makes sense, as it allows for her to continue that tactic without significant challenge by Biden. Can we expect that if she shows up, answers coherently, and is "likeable" the media will declare it a Palin "comeback"?
Dan Balz: Let's not judge the debate before it happens. Both Governor Palin and Senator Obama have a lot on the line Thursday night. I'm looking forward to it as are millions of Americans.
_______________________
Gwen Ifill: Hopefully she will make a quick recovery from her injury this week. Just a comment: I've never seen Ms. Ifill as in the tank for Obama (I think she clearly favored Clinton). She interviewed Obama during the primaries and it was a tough interview. No one should think that because of her ethnicity, Ms. Ifill can not be a fair moderator. That's like saying Tom Brokaw can't moderate the presidential debate.
Dan Balz: I agree.
_______________________
Southwest Nebraska: McCain was interviewed on NPR and lauded Palin's expertise on energy and talked about how he relied on her for information about even Middle Eastern oil politics. Why is he doubling down on this ugly bet?
Dan Balz: He doesn't see it the way you see it. He believes she has brought energy and enthusiasm to his campaign, that she represents the kind of shake-em-up maverick style that he sees in himself. He probably believes much of the criticism of her is politically motivated.
_______________________
Denver: How does increasing FDIC insurance to $250,000 help those nearing forclosure? I would assume that those with $250,000 in the bank are not having many financial issues. Is this just a small thing that Congress is harping on?
Dan Balz: The proposal is aimed at heading off any panicky runs on bank deposits. The credit system, as has been reported, is in danger of freezing up and anything that keeps things calm is seen as helping to alleviate that problem. It does not directly help a homeowner facing foreclosure, but it apparently would help not just individuals but small businesses as well.
_______________________
Madison, Wis.: I don't see any way Biden will be able to come out ahead following the debate tomorrow night. The bar for Palin has been set so low that she will probably exceed expectations just by showing up. And, as an article on your Web site suggests, she probably doesn't need to say anything substantive, so long as she delivers it in that cute, folksy way of hers. Any thoughts on ways for Biden to overcome this? Can he out-cute her?
washingtonpost.com: Shooting From the Hip, With a Smile to Boot (Post, Oct. 1)
Dan Balz: I don't think he can "out-cute her," as you put it. He needs a solid, respectful, restrained and on-point performance. He has to defend Senator Obama, he has to make points against Senator McCain and he has to do it without looking heavy-handed.
_______________________
Minneapolis: Is it safe to say that both parties are somewhat operating without leadership right now? The problem seems more acute for the Republicans, but the Democrats don't quite seem to be marching to one drummer either. My question is, how will this be reflected on Nov. 4?
Dan Balz: I think that's right. That's why this election is so consequential.
We're out of time today. Thanks to everyone who participated. Enjoy the debate! And have a great week.
Dan Balz.
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 30, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Debate Viewership Slips
BYLINE: By BRIAN STELTER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE CAUCUS; Pg. 25
LENGTH: 186 words
The first presidential debate garnered an average of 52.4 million television viewers on Friday, Nielsen Media Research said on Monday.
The relatively low audience estimate puzzled some television executives who expected a wider audience for the commercial-free forum between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama. The debate drew eight million fewer viewers than the first debate between President Bush and Senator John Kerry in 2004, but attracted six million more viewers than the second debate that year, which was also held on a Friday.
Of the 11 broadcast and cable networks that showed the McCain-Obama debate, ABC reached the most viewers, with an average of 11 million. Among other broadcasters, CBS had an average audience of 7.6 million and NBC had an average of 7.1 million. On cable, an average of 8.2 million people watched the Fox News Channel, 7.1 million watched CNN and 3.9 million watched MSNBC.
Nielsen's estimates do not include viewing parties outside the home, reruns or Internet streams of the debate. C-Span's video of the debate drew more than half a million views on YouTube.
BRIAN STELTER
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
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USA TODAY
September 30, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
It's an 'extremely worrisome situation';
Concerns multiply about deeper crisis
BYLINE: David J. Lynch
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1A
LENGTH: 440 words
The House vote Monday to reject a $700 billion financial rescue drew a swift and pointed reaction from Wall Street: the largest one-day point loss ever in the Dow Jones industrial average.
The Dow's historic 778-point cry for help followed the stunning 228-205 vote against passage. In percentage terms, Monday's 7% drop didn't even make the Dow's all-time top 10. (It was the 17th worst ever.) But the 8.8% battering absorbed by the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index was its worst since the "Crash Monday" carnage in 1987. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 9.1%.
"This is an extremely worrisome situation," says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor now at Stanford Financial Group. "We are going to go through a significant recession even if the bill passes. Without it, we could have the worst recession" since World War II.
With markets in retreat and official Washington at a loss to craft an effective response, fears of a deeper financial crisis were multiplying. Credit markets indicated banks are reluctant to lend even to other banks, threatening an eventual credit drought for scores of businesses. "There is a generalized loss of confidence in financial markets and financial institutions that no policy action seem to be able to control," former White House economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on his influential blog.
Monday's damage wasn't limited to U.S. stocks. In Brazil, trading was suspended after stocks sank 13.8%. Germany, Iceland and the United Kingdom moved to save several threatened banks. And today in Tokyo, the Nikkei index was down 4.6% by afternoon trading.
The market bloodbath capped an extraordinary day in the USA's citadels of finance and politics. Earlier Monday, the Federal Reserve announced it had acted along with nine foreign central banks to address a "shortfall" of U.S. dollars in world markets, effectively making available a total of $620 billion.
In a deal midwived by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Citigroup announced plans to acquire Wachovia's banking operations in a $2.1 billion all-stock transaction. It was the latest in a flurry of recent deals that have reshaped the U.S. banking industry.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in the White House driveway, said he was "very disappointed" with the House vote. "We need to work as quickly as possible. We need to get something done," Paulson said.
Presidential rivals traded potshots while urging renewed dealmaking. "One of the messages I have to Congress is: Get this done," said Democrat Barack Obama. Said Republican John McCain: "Now it's time for all members of Congress to go back to the drawing board."
Contributing: Barbara Hagenbaugh
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USA TODAY
September 30, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Politics, fear spell doom for bailout;
Bush, House leaders can't stop backlash
BYLINE: Richard Wolf, Kathy Kiely, Fredreka Schouten and John Fritze
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1A
LENGTH: 2005 words
WASHINGTON -- When President Bush came on television at 7:35 a.m. Monday to urge passage of a $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan, fellow Republicans working out in the House gymnasium jeered his remarks.
Hours later, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., attacked Bush's "failed economic policies" on the House floor and credited Democrats for improving the proposal, Republicans got angrier.
Bush's weak political standing even in his own party and sharp partisan divisions in the House may have contributed to the plan's demise, but it was old-fashioned politics that killed the bill. In the end, too many lawmakers weren't willing to risk losing their jobs.
"It's mainly political fear, the reaction back home," said Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., who backed the bill. "It's the most difficult time for people to be statesmen, 37 days before an election" in which all of the 435 House seats are on the ballot.
Ever since Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson presented his plan to Congress 12 days ago, lawmakers had been skeptical. They didn't like the $700 billion price tag or the plan for the U.S. government to take over bad private debt, mostly distressed mortgage securities.
Since then, compromises made to appease conservative Republicans and populist Democrats in the House made the vote close. But proponents couldn't overcome these obstacles:
*Political fear. More than 75% of House members who are in close races in the Nov. 4 elections wouldn't vote for the bill when their phone calls and e-mails were running 10-to-1 against it. "As much as anything else, it was the barrage of phone calls that everyone received," said Rep. Jim Marshall, D-Ga. He voted for the bill even though his southwest Georgia district is rated a tossup by the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.
Republicans facing tough re-election challenges deserted their leaders in droves. Thirty-two of 37 Republicans listed as endangered by the non-partisan Cook Political Report voted no, compared with 18 of 29 Democrats in the same category.
On the flip side, 22 of 29 Republicans who are leaving the House this year voted for the bill. Two of the six retiring Democrats voted against bill.
"There weren't many vulnerable members who voted yes," said David Wasserman, House editor for the Cook report. A yes vote, he said, would give "every opponent a new blistering ad to run against you."
*"Bailout" language. No matter how the Bush administration tried to describe the complex rescue plan, it kept appearing in news media accounts as a "bailout" of Wall Street. "When you call something a 'bailout,' there aren't a whole lot of people who are out there who are in favor of a bailout," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto.
*Presidential politics. Republican John McCain interrupted his campaign to jump into negotiations on the bill, while Democrat Barack Obama -- who said he was wary of injecting presidential politics into the negotiations -- sought to influence the White House and his colleagues by phone. In their debate Friday, both were non-committal. On Sunday, both backed the bill. On Monday, McCain said Obama and his allies injected unnecessary partisanship into the process, and Obama called his rival's response to the crisis "irratic."
*Bush's weakness. Four months from retirement and holding a 27% approval rating in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, Bush couldn't force enough Republicans to vote yes. He and Paulson were joined on the phones Monday by Vice President Cheney and a bevy of top White House staff members -- to no avail. "Some people committed to voting for the bill," Fratto said. "Others remain skeptical."
"The president's embrace may cost them re-election," Cooper said. "They're running like scalded dogs from the White House."
*Pelosi's rhetoric. Republican leaders expected more of their colleagues to vote for the package. Only 65 of the 199 House GOP members backed the bill. Some blamed the Democratic speaker's speech. "A bipartisan solution is only as good as the last person who throws a bomb into the room," said Minority Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo., his party's chief vote-counter.
Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, scoffed, "'Somebody hurt my feelings, so I will punish the country.'"
Cold water, hot tempers
The day's political and financial gyrations may have been foretold inside the House gym Monday morning, and not just because Republicans jeered their president. The hot water ran out.
"It was an early sign of market failure," quipped Cooper, who watched the Republicans react to Bush's speech.
House leaders scheduled four back-to-back votes on unrelated issues starting at 8 a.m., giving them time to take members' pulse on the rescue plan. It quickly became clear they were in trouble. "We're struggling," said Rep. John Murtha, a Pennsylvania Democrat close to Pelosi.
As the three-hour debate unfolded, the political maneuvering began. Because the bill was so unpopular, neither party wanted to take primary responsibility for its passage.
The deal worked out between the leaders was "we would have half the votes, and they would have half the votes," Pelosi said later. Blunt told reporters afterward that he thought he had 75 GOP votes when the roll call began. He emerged with just 65.
Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., acknowledged some "fear of what might happen" if the bill didn't pass but added, "My heart says no, and I'm very likely to vote my heart." Three hours later, he did.
As the day wore on, retiring House Republicans became a focus of GOP lobbying. Rep. Jim McCrery, R-La., had calls from Bush and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's top policy adviser.
"I have lost a lot of sleep over this," McCrery said. He voted yes.
All day, lawmakers faced lobbying by outside groups. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which supported the plan, sent e-mails to several thousand members Sunday, urging them to bombard lawmakers with their opinions. "We unleashed a full-court arsenal," said R. Bruce Josten, the chamber's top lobbyist.
That didn't sway enough Republicans, usually the chamber's allies. Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas said only a few lawmakers changed their minds in the final minutes of the vote.
"We came here today willing to swallow hard," Hensarling said. "But we can't swallow everything. ... Any model that essentially has taxpayers having to bail out Wall Street is fundamentally a flawed model."
Many lawmakers waited to the last possible minute. As the 15-minute roll call counted down to zero, 54 House members had yet to cast their votes. At that moment, the tally was 195-185 against the bill.
As Democratic and Republican leaders tried to corral members and switch votes, the tally against the bill mounted. Pelosi, visible in her cream-colored suit as she wove through a throng of navy jackets, buttonholed Democrats.
Congressional Black Caucus members Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois, Bennie Thompson of Mississippi and John Lewis of Georgia sat stoned-faced as Pelosi leaned over to talk with them in the final minutes of voting. All three had voted against the plan.
Pelosi told them, Jackson said, that the stock market was falling fast and asked for their support to help revive the bill. Lewis shook his head and neither Jackson nor Thompson budged.
Jackson said he wants an economic stimulus package and regulations barring banks from buying mortgage securities included in any bailout. "We have to give a carrot and stick at the same time to Wall Street," he said.
Then Rep. Joseph Crowley, D-N.Y., shouted to his Republican colleagues, "The Dow just dropped 600 points!"
For vulnerable Republicans, a call from Bush didn't matter as much as thousands of calls from back home. "America just seems to be in a populist mood right now," said Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., who is not running again and voted in favor.
Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, voted no. He said the plan bestowed too much power on Paulson. "I don't want the government owning everything in America," he said.
Owning 'the Great Depression'
Once the results were in, the recriminations began. Democrats blamed Republicans for producing one-third of their 199 votes. Republicans accused Democrats of being overly partisan.
Some Republicans blamed Paulson, the plan's architect, for not listening to them. "A man born without ears," Rep. Mark Souder, R-Ind., said.
Much of the talk focused on the percentages of Democrats and Republicans who voted for the plan. While 60% of Democrats voted yes, only 32% of Republicans did so. Two-thirds "decided to put political ideology ahead of the best interests of our great nation," said House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, D-S.C.
Republicans said it was Democrats' responsibility to pass the measure, since Democrats control the House. "We're not in the majority of the Congress that failed to act today," Blunt said.
They also blamed Pelosi's fiery speech blaming a "right-wing ideology of anything goes." House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said it "caused a number of members we thought we could get, to go south."
Neither McCain nor Obama were on Capitol Hill in the hours before the vote. That didn't stop the McCain campaign from blasting Obama for not getting more involved. McCain returned to Washington after Friday's debate but didn't go back to Capitol Hill. He lobbied at least 11 House Republicans during his campaign hiatus. Four voted against the package, including two from his home state of Arizona.
Even so, he defended his involvement. At a rally in Columbus before the vote was cast, McCain said he acted while Obama was "monitoring" the situation. "That's not leadership. That's watching from the sidelines," McCain said.
In a statement, Obama's campaign countered, "This is a moment of national crisis, and today's inaction in Congress as well as the angry and hyper-partisan statement released by the McCain campaign are exactly why the American people are disgusted with Washington."
Obama had been in daily contact with Paulson and congressional Democrats during the past two weeks. But he has kept his activities low key, saying that injecting presidential politics complicates the negotiations.
The most ominous warnings came from those who think the nation risks financial Armageddon absent a rescue bill. "Those that voted no will own the Great Depression," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a McCain ally.
'The way forward'
At the end of the day, all Bush and congressional leaders could do was rue the stock market's record 778-point decline and vow to try again. "We'll be working with members of Congress, leaders of Congress, on the way forward," Bush said.
Fratto, his spokesman, was blunt. "We're very concerned about the markets," he said.
In the House, which isn't scheduled to meet again until noon Thursday, Frank said Democrats were ready to go back to work. This time, he said, the administration should work better with Republicans in Congress.
Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., one of those McCain didn't sway, said supporters should be able to change enough minds if they change such things as accounting rules and increases in insurance for bank accounts. He said there isn't "a shadow of a doubt" a revised bill will pass the House this week.
Possible elements of a compromise could include an economic stimulus plan and bankruptcy protection for homeowners faced with foreclosure, which could win Democratic votes. A requirement that Treasury insure rather than buy bad loans could win conservative votes.
In the Senate, where bipartisan support has been stronger than the House, Sens. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., and Judd Gregg, R-N.H., struck a conciliatory tone. Dodd said after a cool-down period and the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashana, lawmakers would get back to work. "We don't intend to leave here without the job being done," he said.
Blunt said supporters of a rescue plan have a powerful new weapon: the plummeting stock market. "We're going to have a couple of days to see how the marketplace reacts to all this," he said. "That may be a good thing."
Contributing: David Jackson, Matt Kelley and Jill Lawrence
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The Washington Post
September 30, 2008 Tuesday
Met 2 Edition
House Rejects Financial Rescue, Sending Stocks Plummeting
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1532 words
A bipartisan rebellion in the House killed a $700 billion rescue plan for the nation's financial system yesterday, sending global stock prices plunging, prompting fierce recriminations on the presidential campaign trail and dealing President Bush his worst legislative defeat.
House Democratic and Republican leaders vowed to go back into negotiations to devise compromise legislation to stabilize the credit markets, but no talks were scheduled. After U.S. financial markets closed, with the Dow Jones industrial average down a one-day record of 778 points, or 7 percent, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. tried to calm frazzled traders, assuring them that work on a market intervention would resume.
"I will continue to work with congressional leaders to find a way forward to pass a comprehensive plan to stabilize our financial system and protect the American people by limiting the prospects of further deterioration in our economy," he said. "We've got much work to do, and this is much too important to simply let fail."
Rarely has a congressional vote held such high drama and produced such immediate repercussions, directly from the House floor to the trading floor. Wall Street traders huddling around television screens watched lawmakers denounce the bailout legislation, and then sent the Dow plummeting. Stocks had recovered somewhat by the time the vote was gaveled to a close, but jittery investors sent them plunging again as Republicans and Democrats took turns blaming each other for the defeat. In a few hours, $1.2 trillion in paper wealth was wiped out.
As lawmakers in Congress pointed fingers, the collapse of the world's financial markets only built steam. Brazil's main stock index lost more than 9 percent on the news of the U.S. congressional vote, and fears spread that other emerging markets could feel the credit crunch. European bourses fell earlier in the day as a result of the financial struggles of major European banks, and regulators from Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg moved to rescue the European banking and insurance giant Fortis. And Citigroup stepped in to buy Wachovia's banking operations for $2.16 billion, making it the dominant bank in the Washington area.
On the 228 to 205 congressional vote, 140 Democrats voted yes and 95 voted no; 133 Republicans opposed the measure, while 65 approved.
"The Democratic side more than lived up to its side of the bargain," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said of the Democrats: "We're going to reach back out to them. We're going to be talking to our members and see how we can come together in the next few days to reverse whatever negative impact there may be in the economy over the next few days because Congress has failed to act."
Yesterday, Bush called nearly every member of Texas's Republican delegation, GOP aides said. He won over four of the 19.
Congressional leaders and the White House faced several options, none of them palatable just weeks before a heavily contested presidential election. Democratic leaders could choose to return with a measure guaranteed to win more Democratic votes, even at the expense of Republican support. Instead of simply purchasing distressed assets from financial institutions, some Democratic economists favor injecting lenders with cash in exchange for stock, letting the institutions figure out what to do with the mortgage-backed securities and other troubled assets weighing down their books.
A Democratic bill would also include more money for homeowners in or facing foreclosure and would change the bankruptcy law to allow judges to adjust mortgage repayment terms. But Democratic leaders would have to ensure that the measure could survive a filibuster in the Senate and would be signed by the president.
Republicans were advocating slight changes to the bill that could attract a handful of new votes. Party members might be enticed by a measure that would allow businesses to write off more past losses on this year's taxes or a more robust expansion of mortgage insurance, financed by banks. Democrats could add more assistance to ailing state and local governments without raising too many GOP objections.
In the thick of the presidential campaign, the collapse of the deal left Washington buzzing with recriminations. Republicans -- from Sen. John McCain's top economic aide to the House GOP leadership -- initially blamed Pelosi, saying her floor speech castigating Bush administration "policies built on budgetary recklessness, on an anything-goes mentality, with no regulation, no supervision, and no discipline in the system" poisoned the atmosphere and invited partisan retribution.
In truth, few Republicans were on the floor to hear that speech, and those who were there showed no signs of discomfort, as they often do. Republican leaders backed away within hours, conceding they never had the votes they had promised.
Democrats found strength in numbers, saying nearly two-thirds of their members voted for the bill. If anyone is to blame for a record sell-off on Wall Street, Democrats said, it was the party that provided just 65 votes.
Nowhere were the recriminations fiercer than on the presidential campaign trail. McCain, the GOP nominee, had been prepared to claim credit for the measure's passage, attributing it to his decision to suspend his campaign last week and engage in negotiations.
"I've never been afraid of stepping in to solve problems for the American people, and I'm not going to stop now," he said at a rally in Columbus, Ohio. "Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced," he said of his opponent, Sen. Barack Obama. "At first he didn't want to get involved. Then he was monitoring the situation."
When two-thirds of the House Republican Conference voted no, the McCain camp changed its pitch. Not a single member of McCain's home-state Arizona House delegation voted for the bill.
"Just before the vote, when the outcome was still in doubt, Speaker Pelosi gave a strongly worded partisan speech and poisoned the outcome. This bill failed because Barack Obama and the Democrats put politics ahead of country," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's senior domestic policy adviser.
Obama campaign aides gleefully shared a quote from McCain's chief political strategist, Steve Schmidt, who said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press": "What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this."
Obama delayed a campaign event in Westminster, Colo., to speak to Paulson and Pelosi, then told his audience: "One of the messages I have to Congress is, 'Get this done, Democrats; Republicans, step up to the plate.' "
For Bush, the defeat was the starkest sign yet that a president who once had lockstep support among congressional Republicans has all but lost his influence. He has had vetoes overridden, on a water projects bill and a major agriculture measure, but nothing to compare to the defeat of a measure he had said was critical to the nation's economy. In the days before the vote, the president addressed the nation about the urgency of the plan, spoke out daily, even summoned congressional leaders and the two presidential candidates to the White House.
The divisions in both the Republican and Democratic ranks that had bedeviled negotiators simply could not be mended that easily. House Republican leaders acknowledged they let Pelosi put the bill on the floor with at least a dozen Republican votes still needed. But they thought they could win them over, with stock prices falling and time running out.
Conservative Republicans who have been decrying the bailout never wavered in their opposition, nor did liberal Democrats who saw the measure as a rescue plan for Wall Street millionaires. And House members in tough reelection bids abandoned the legislation in droves.
Opponents included the most endangered Democrats, including Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.), Nick Lampson (Tex.) and Nancy Boyda (Kan.), and the most endangered Republicans, from conservative Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.) to moderate Lincoln Diaz-Balart (Fla.). Democrats Mark Udall (Colo.) and Tom Udall (N.M.), both running for Senate seats, voted no. Low-level members of the Republican leadership, such as Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) and Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.), defied their senior leaders. African American Democrats with virtually no prospect of defeat voted no en masse.
Still, with the options declining and their members eager to get home to campaign, congressional leaders insisted they would not adjourn for the year without some kind of stabilizing legislation. The shock waves of the House defeat are expected to rock world markets this morning. Already, the carefree attitude that international bankers had been taking has begun to give way, with the European Central Bank moving an extra $173 billion into European markets yesterday.
"What happened today cannot stand," Pelosi said. "We must move forward, and I hope that the markets will take that message."
Staff writers Paul Kane, Anne E. Kornblut, Michael D. Shear and Perry Bacon Jr. contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: September 30, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Dayna Smith For The Washington Post; "The Democratic side more than lived up to its side of the bargain," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, with Rep. Rahm Emanuel.
IMAGE; By Lucian Perkins For The Washington Post; Republicans, from left, Trent Franks (Ariz.), Steve King (Iowa), Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) and Jeb Hensarling (Tex.) leave a news conference after talking about why they voted no.
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The Washington Post
September 30, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
Democrats See the Pros and Cons of Letting Biden Be Biden
BYLINE: Perry Bacon Jr.; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A06
LENGTH: 906 words
Introducing Sen. Barack Obama at a rally in Detroit on Sunday, his running mate did not hold back.
"John McCain said he'd follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell," said Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. "Well, let me tell you something: President Barack Obama will follow him to where he lives and then send him to hell."
Biden's latest ad-lib drew laughter and cheers from the crowd, but there has been a downside to the Democratic vice presidential nominee's freewheeling style: a string of comments that either don't reflect campaign positions or misstate basic facts.
Unlike his Republican counterpart, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Biden has not been shy about talking to reporters, but comments he has made since Obama chose him last month have presented Democrats with their own problems and revived the longtime senator's reputation for gaffes.
In an interview with CBS News that aired last week, Biden described how Franklin D. Roosevelt had appeared before the country on television in 1929 to explain the stock market crash. But Herbert Hoover was president in 1929, and televisions sets did not start appearing in American homes until a decade later.
In that same interview, asked about an Obama campaign commercial that mocked Sen. John McCain's lack of computer skills, Biden called the ad "terrible." A few hours later, after McCain's campaign highlighted the remark in several news releases, Obama aides put out a statement under Biden's name in which the senator from Delaware said he had not personally seen the commercial and did not have any concerns once he watched it.
The next day, confronted with a interview in which Biden had said he opposed the bailout of the insurance company American International Group, a move that Obama supported, the Democratic nominee said that "I think Joe should have waited" before commenting.
And Obama aides spent much of the week defending the candidate's backing of the construction of "clean coal" plants, after a video surfaced on the Internet that showed Biden at a campaign event saying he opposed clean coal. The coal industry is a major employer in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two key swing states where Biden is doing much of his campaigning, and Obama has pledged support for coal plants that emit less carbon dioxide than traditional plants.
The McCain campaign has jumped on the remarks to attack Obama, and the Republican National Committee has started a "Joe Biden Gaffe Clock" that includes dates and video of the senator's comments, which also have included repeated references to brigades of soldiers as "battalions."
"If this race is close, any mistake can be really exploited," said Dan Bartlett, a former top adviser to President Bush who is supporting McCain. "He has this unique capability for someone who is so smart on the issues making these mistakes."
David Wade, Biden's spokesman, defended his boss's "straight talk," adding: "Unlike other campaigns that sequester running mates, we'll proudly continue to unleash Joe Biden to be Joe Biden."
Obama himself has defended Biden, telling NBC last week, "I am very proud of the choice that I made."
And Dan Pfeiffer, Obama's communications director, rejected any suggestion that Biden's role in the campaign would be reduced or changed, calling him a "huge asset" who was "in the battleground states, dominating the media coverage."
Some Democrats have suggested -- as Biden himself did recently -- that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would have been a better choice as Obama's running mate, but on the whole the party appears satisfied with him.
Kiki McLean, who was an adviser on Clinton's campaign and served on the staff of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) when he was the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, said Biden's gaffes were "very human moments."
"He's very on-message on foreign policy and the economy," she said.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who advised the senator from Delaware during his own primary campaign, called the controversial remarks "Biden being Biden." Lake said focus groups of non-college-educated white voters, a group that has been a weak point for Obama, suggest Biden is helping sell Obama to skeptical audiences despite his occasional gaffes.
Biden has long been known for speaking for too long and making occasionally odd remarks, such as when he declared Obama "the first mainstream African American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy" when Biden launched his White House bid in early 2007. A few months earlier he had spoken of the prevalence of Indian accents in Dunkin' Donuts and 7-Eleven stores.
Initially hailed by the party as someone who would add experience as well as appeal to key voting groups such as Catholics, Biden has drawn little attention in recent weeks, crowded out of the media spotlight first by Palin and now by the financial meltdown.
Biden often travels with fewer than a dozen reporters, and even his aggressive attacks on McCain have generated little attention in national news, although Obama aides point out he often makes the front pages of local newspapers in the cities he visits. At the same time, many of those papers ran stories about his coal comments this week as well.
Bartlett, who is not formally involved with the McCain campaign, described Biden as "a rhetorical train wreck." He added: "Every utterance matters. But when he was announced I considered him to be a very good pick, and I haven't really changed my opinion."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jason Reed -- Reuters; Barack Obama is joined by Joseph R. Biden Jr. last week in Greensboro, N.C. Biden brings foreign policy savvy but also a reputation for gaffes.
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The New York Times
September 29, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Biden and Palin Prepare to Tangle
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; ON DECK; Pg. 17
LENGTH: 212 words
Next stop: St. Louis.
The financial bailout plan could draw both presidential candidates to Washington. But by midweek, the political front will be shifting to Missouri, where the vice-presidential nominees, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, will participate in their only debate.
They will be off the campaign trail most of the week, preparing for the showdown, which is scheduled for 9 p.m. Thursday, Eastern time, at Washington University in St. Louis. Gwen Ifill of PBS will moderate.
Will Ms. Palin, the Republican nominee, display enough command of the issues to convince voters that she is qualified to move into the Naval Observatory, the vice president's residence, in January?
Will Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, avoid gaffes and exhibit enough self-control to keep him out of Republican campaign commercials?
If the presidential debate last week is any indication, millions of American households will be tuned in to see.
Meantime, unless they shift course for a bailout package vote, the presidential candidates this week will continue their travels.
John McCain: Columbus, Ohio (with Ms. Palin); Des Moines; Washington; and Los Angeles.
Barack Obama: Denver; Reno, Nev.; and the La Crosse area of Wisconsin.
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USA TODAY
September 29, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Rivals in Ala. race both claim conservative tag;
Dems hope to wrest away House seat long held by Republicans
BYLINE: Sebastian Kitchen
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 6A
LENGTH: 909 words
MONTGOMERY, Ala. -- From the harsh tone of a congressional race in Alabama, it might be hard to believe the candidates are deacons at the same Baptist church.
Democrat Bobby Bright and Republican Jay Love are campaigning hard for an open seat in Congress to represent the rural 2nd District in Alabama -- a seat Democrats have not won since 1962.
"This is the best chance the Democrats have had in many years to take that seat," says William Stewart, a longtime political observer in the state and professor emeritus of political science at the University of Alabama.
Despite their hopes for Bright -- who has not endorsed Barack Obama for president and is a self-described fiscal conservative -- Stewart and strong Obama supporters such as Democratic Rep. Artur Davis do not expect Bright's possible success to translate to a win at the top of the ticket.
Davis, a three-term congressman in Alabama's heavily Democratic 7th District who gave a seconding speech placing Obama's name in nomination at the Democratic National Convention, knows the Illinois senator faces stiff odds in Alabama.
According to the Rasmussen Reports Alabama poll released Wednesday, Republican presidential nominee John McCain leads Obama, 60%-39%.
GOP territory
The last Democrat to claim Alabama in a presidential election was Jimmy Carter in 1976 with 56% of the state's vote, according to the secretary of State's records. Ronald Reagan edged Carter in 1980 -- 48.75%-47.45% -- those records show. In 2000, George W. Bush claimed 56.5% of the state's vote. In his re-election campaign in 2004, he improved to 62.5%.
Davis says he thinks Obama's presence on the ticket may push a lot of people to register to vote and help other Democrats down the ballot, including Bright.
Love and other Republicans have called Bright a liberal, blaming the three-term mayor of Montgomery for the city's 10% sales tax. Democrats have attacked Love for being cozy with big oil as a state lawmaker and for not providing health insurance to employees of the 16 fast-food restaurants he owned.
Both candidates claim they are conservatives, but Love and retiring Republican Rep. Terry Everett have attacked Bright for taking money from nationally prominent Democrats, including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of California and Rep. Charles Rangel of New York. Love reminds voters, in person and in his ads, that Bright has taken money from those Democrats and will be on a slate with Obama.
In his ads, Bright proclaims he is pro-military and opposes gun control and abortion rights. He has told citizens in Montgomery to purchase firearms, learn how to use them and do so when necessary.
It's a matter of survival for Democrats in Alabama to present themselves as conservatives, Stewart says, because that is how the white electorate in the state identifies itself. The white electorate accounts for 68% of registered voters in Alabama, according to the secretary of State's records.
Joyce Smith, a business owner in Prattville, considers herself a staunch Republican. She doesn't remember ever voting for a Democrat but plans to vote for Bright in November. She has "I'm a Bright Republican" signs lining the street in front of the assisted-living facility she owns in Prattville, a growing community just north of Montgomery.
Smith, a supporter of the McCain-Palin ticket, says her Bright signs have been kicked down, she has been told she'd have to find new friends and she has received "severe lectures."
Betty Maurer, 69, a retired legal secretary in Montgomery, considers herself a lifelong Republican. She would put bumper stickers on her car and pray for Republicans, but she never volunteered to help a political candidate until this year. She felt compelled to call Love's campaign and offer her help.
"This is most unusual for me to be this involved in (a) campaign. I have never known anyone I was that excited about before Jay Love began to run for office," Maurer says.
Bright says his ideal candidate for speaker of the House would be a "conservative Blue Dog Democrat."
The Blue Dog Democrats are a group of 49 fiscally conservative House members who have endorsed Bright and another Democrat running for an open Alabama seat, retired doctor and freshman state Sen. Parker Griffith. Griffith is opposed by Republican businessman Wayne Parker for the 5th District seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer.
Top districts
During a recent trip to Alabama, Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), says those two districts in Alabama are among the top 10 the NRCC wants to win. Cole says the party must "guard against complacency." Democrats are trying to "poach" the traditionally Republican 2nd District seat, he says.
Love was not an early McCain supporter. He backed former Republican senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee and was later selected as a delegate for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Alabama primary. He says he completely supports his party's nominee, and his campaign touted that he was the first candidate in the nation to feature vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin in an ad.
In not disclosing his choice for president, Bright says he believes in the "sanctity of the private ballot" and will not burn a bridge with either candidate before he gets to work with him.
Love says "no conservative would vote for Barack Obama" or accept money from Pelosi.
Kitchen reports for the Montgomery (Ala.) Advertiser
LOAD-DATE: September 29, 2008
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GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, B/W, Carlos Roig and Dave Merrill, USA TODAY, Sources: Census Bureau (2007)
USA TODAY research
Almanac of American Politics (Chart)
PHOTO, B/W, Amanda Sowards, Montgomery Advertiser, via AP
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The Washington Post
September 29, 2008 Monday
Regional Edition
McCain's Lost Chance;
Obama Holds His Own on Foreign Policy
BYLINE: E. J. Dionne Jr.
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 769 words
September began as John McCain's month and ended as Barack Obama's. McCain's high-risk wagers aimed at shaking up the campaign turned into very bad investments. And Friday's debate eliminated McCain's best chance to deliver a knockout blow to an opponent whose most important asset may be his capacity for self-correction.
McCain is supposed to own the foreign policy issue -- and he should have owned Friday's debate. During their respective primary battles, McCain was a better debater than Obama, who could be hesitant, wordy and thrown off his stride.
But the Obama who showed up at Ole Miss was sharper and more concise than the man who frequently lost debates against his Democratic foes. He was also resolutely calm in standing his ground against McCain, whose condescension became a major talking point after the debate. If Al Gore suffered from his sighs during the 2000 debates, McCain will be remembered for his supercilious repetition of seven variations on "Senator Obama doesn't understand."
This gave special power to Obama's peroration about McCain's "wrong" judgments on going to war in Iraq. McCain's dismissal of Obama brought back memories of how advocates of the war arrogantly dismissed those who insisted (rightly, as it turned out) that the conflict would be far more difficult and costly than its architects suggested.
McCain's derisive approach may help explain why the instant polls gave Obama an edge in a debate that many pundits rated a tie -- and why women seemed especially inclined toward Obama. CNN's survey found that 59 percent of women rated Obama as having done better, with just 31 percent saying that of McCain.
An Obama adviser who was watching a "dial group" -- in which viewers turn a device to express their feelings about a debate's every moment -- said that whenever McCain lectured or attacked Obama, the Republican's ratings would drop, and the fall was especially steep among women.
But if the debate was indeed a tie -- and McCain certainly looked informed and engaged once the discussion moved from economics to foreign affairs -- this would count as a net gain for Obama. A foreign policy discussion afforded McCain his best opportunity to aggravate doubts about his foe. That opportunity is now gone.
As for the first 40 minutes devoted to the economic crisis, Obama was more forceful in addressing public anxieties. He used the occasion to tout his middle-class tax cut that a large share of the electorate doesn't even know he's proposing. Obama's campaign quickly went on the air with an ad noting that McCain did not once mention the words "middle class" during the discussion.
Thus ends a month that began with such promise for McCain. His choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate at the end of August created a fortnight of excitement among Republican loyalists who were less than enthusiastic about McCain. Some said Palin would also enhance his appeal to female voters and help him recast his candidacy as a maverick's crusade.
But it was a reckless choice. Palin has proved herself to be spectacularly unprepared for a national campaign and embarrassingly inarticulate and unreflective. She is held in protective custody by a campaign that trusts her less and less. A few conservatives have suggested she should be dropped from the ticket.
Then came McCain's abrupt foray into Washington's negotiations over a Wall Street bailout bill. His showy call for postponing Friday's debate was serenely rebuffed by Obama, and McCain was forced to retreat. The candidate with 26 years of congressional experience lost a test of wills to an opponent with just four years on the national stage.
And when McCain intervened in the rescue package discussions, his position on the matter was muddy. This champion of bipartisanship briefly stood up for a House Republican minority that was battling against a bipartisan accord largely accepted by his Senate Republican colleagues, and then he pulled back. The McCain who had once allied with such liberals as Ted Kennedy and Russ Feingold was suddenly flirting with an approach to the economic rescue that was recommended by Newt Gingrich.
The post-Labor Day period has thus brought the campaign to an unexpected point.
McCain, once the candidate of tested experience, must now battle the perception that he has become the riskier choice, a man too given to rash moves under pressure. Obama, whose very newness promised change but also raised doubts, has emerged as the cool and unruffled candidate who moves calmly but steadily forward. However one judges the first debate, it did nothing to block Obama's progress.
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The Washington Post
September 29, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
'Substantive' Press Is Taken for a Spin
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1406 words
DATELINE: OXFORD, Miss.
David Axelrod was surrounded by a pack of camera-toting, mike-wielding, pushing-and-shoving media types, one of whom asked whether his man Barack Obama had been "too nice" in the just-completed debate with John McCain.
"I don't think he was too nice. . . . There were clear differences. . . . He made a very strong case, absolutely," the onetime newspaperman said in his meandering style.
Twenty feet away, McCain operative Steve Schmidt was robotically hammering home a single number.
"Senator Obama was right tonight when he said John McCain was right 11 times. . . . It was a home run for Senator McCain. . . . The person who is losing the debate, the person who is on defense, is the person who says his opponent is right 11 times," the shaved-head strategist declared.
Obama may have won the insta-polls after Friday's debate here at the University of Mississippi, but the McCain team won the spin war, a postgame ritual that quickly seeps into the punditry enveloping such events. What was equally striking, inside the massive media tent, was that some of the journalists who profess to want an elevated debate on the issues -- which is precisely what they got, courtesy of moderator Jim Lehrer -- seemed unusually interested in style points.
Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody asked Axelrod about the "body language," saying: "John McCain didn't make eye contact at all." Another reporter wondered whether McCain had been "patronizing" in dismissing Obama's lack of foreign-policy experience. A third asked whether McCain had hurled "insults" at his opponent.
Perhaps the debate's sober tone -- lacking such memorable one-liners as "There you go again" or "You're no Jack Kennedy" -- left the journalistic handicappers searching for a more personal way to score the session. They disdain the predictable partisans who show up afterward, but these advocates -- from Madeleine Albright and Rudy Giuliani -- didn't lack for attention.
"The spin is something we should pay less attention to, but it's important because it can change the story line," says NBC's Andrea Mitchell.
"I find most of what these people say about exceeding expectations to be total baloney," says CNBC's John Harwood.
"I guess it'd be news if someone came out and said, 'My guy did just awful,' " says CBS's Bob Schieffer.
The spinning began in earnest hours before the debate. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham insisted to a group of reporters that his close friend McCain had done the right thing in parachuting into congressional negotiations over the $700 billion federal bailout bill and threatening to abandon the debate.
"What about the criticism that Senator McCain is impetuous, kind of a drama king?" asked National Review's Byron York. Graham said McCain's participation had been "invaluable," even though the bailout talks had imploded.
"But he suggested he wasn't going to come if there wasn't an agreement," said BBC's Katty Kay. "There is no agreement."
"Do you want him here?" Graham asked. And, of course, the journalists did, or their trip to Ole Miss would have been pointless.
Ten feet away, John Kerry -- who would have been mobbed four years ago -- looked around the tent, and when no one seemed interested in his presence, walked out.
Outside, on a summerlike evening, Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs held forth for the likes of NBC's Chuck Todd and New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, who was wearing an Elvis T-shirt. (The company may have been more pleasant than that of McCain aides, who have barred Dowd from the candidate's plane. And the Obama camp seemed to show its media leanings when it texted followers to watch the debate -- on CNN.)
Gibbs said he was merely trying to gauge the media mood. And what would his role be afterward?
"I will be very, very frank," he said, laughing at the absurdity.
Moments after the debate, the front of the tent resembled a crowded bazaar, festooned with huge yellow signs for McCain surrogates and narrow blue ones for Obama advocates. The biggest names drew the largest crowds until the journalists grew bored and drifted off in search of better goods -- the free market at work.
While Axelrod fielded questions in one corner, McCain spokeswoman Nicolle Wallace was surrounded by a second press pack six feet away. She lauded her boss for suggesting he would consider a partial freeze on federal spending. "That was a leadership moment," Wallace said again and again.
Minutes later the two stood awkwardly side by side, staring straight ahead at a robot camera, waiting for an interview with CBS's Katie Couric.
"Go ahead, David, spin me," Couric began.
"I don't need to spin you, Katie. . . . What you saw was one candidate making a forceful, compelling case for change," Axelrod said.
When her turn came, Wallace -- who was working with Couric last year as a CBS commentator -- said: "What was exposed tonight was a leadership gap, a judgment gap and an experience gap." Then she was back to McCain's "bold" spending freeze.
As the McCain team rushed out a Web ad featuring Obama repeatedly saying McCain was right about this or that, Fox's Sean Hannity, MSNBC's Chris Matthews and other TV hosts picked up the point -- a twist that left Obama press secretary Linda Douglass shaking her head.
"I can't believe that anyone is criticizing someone, in this hyperpartisan environment, for being gracious enough to acknowledge where there are areas of agreement," the former ABC correspondent said. "I find it surprising that journalists would be raising questions about a candidate who is capable of acknowledging that his opponent has a point."
Then she pivoted to how Obama had won a "commanding victory" on "John McCain's home turf."
Palin Gets Panned
Sarah Palin has been struggling in her own debates -- with network anchors. While the Alaska governor hardly drew rave reviews for her interview with Charlie Gibson, her sit-down with Katie Couric last week opened the floodgates of criticism, even from conservatives.
Palin was halting, repetitive and occasionally stumped on basic questions. And the worst moments -- boasting again, Tina Fey-like, of Alaska's proximity to Russia -- have been endlessly replayed on other networks and the Web.
It may have been a turning point for Couric, who was persistent without being overbearing, in shedding early doubts about her ability to be a commanding presence in the CBS anchor chair. And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing.
While some journalists say privately they are censoring their comments about Palin to avoid looking like they're piling on, pundits on the right are jumping ship. MSNBC's Joe Scarborough says Palin "just seems out of her league." National Review Editor Rich Lowry called her performance "dreadful." Dallas Morning News columnist Rod Dreher described the interview as a "train wreck." Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker urged Palin to quit the race, saying: "If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself."
The interview is drawing extraordinary attention because of the McCain campaign's calculated decision to shield Palin from reporters. No vice-presidential nominee in modern history has been this inaccessible to the media, reinforcing the perception that she can't hit major-league pitching. When the networks balked at recording Palin's photo ops with foreign leaders at the U.N. last week unless journalists were allowed in -- and a CNN producer was granted access for all of 29 seconds -- the no-press dictum degenerated into farce.
Palin was buoyed for weeks by negative and sometimes unfair coverage, particularly about her family situation, that turned her into a sympathetic figure. But the Couric and Gibson interviews were the first real test of whether she could do more than read a punchy speech off a prompter. And even many of her supporters are no longer trying to spin her performance.
Not Too Bright
The rhetoric gets heated this time of year, but Paul Begala, the CNN commentator, went way over the line in calling President Bush a "high-functioning moron."
The former Bill Clinton aide can be a witty partisan, but there are 50 ways he could have ridiculed Bush's capacity to govern without using such a slur. Begala, though, is undeterred: "I said it. I meant it. I don't regret it. . . . You cannot imagine the positive feedback I've gotten."
Howard Kurtz hosts CNN's weekly media program, "Reliable Sources."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; Talking it up: McCain's Steve Schmidt, left, and Obama's David Axelrod.
IMAGE; Talking it up: McCain's Steve Schmidt, left, and Obama's David Axelrod.
IMAGE; Cbs News Via Associated Press; After her performance in an interview with Katie Couric last week, prominent conservatives are criticizing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 29, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Critiquing the Press
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3860 words
HIGHLIGHT: Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
He was online Monday, Sept. 29 at noon ET to take your questions and comments.
The transcript follows.
Media Backtalk transcripts archive
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Jacksonville, Fla.: "And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that likely ill prove embarrassing." Care to expand on this Howie? It already has some of the blogosphere jumping.
Howard Kurtz: The answers that are on tape are part of a "Vice Presidential Questions" series, with Joe Biden having been asked the same questions. Katie did the same sort of thing with Obama and McCain. CBS plans to air the vice-presidential nominees' responses on Wednesday and Thursday. I am told that Palin struggled with at least one or two of them.
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New York: I swear I read somewhere on The Post's site that there is a third part to the Couric/Palin interview coming out today, but now I can't find anything about it. Is there more to come?
Howard Kurtz: Katie Couric was scheduled to interview Palin again -- with McCain -- today and/or tomorrow. As of this writing, I'm told that is still the plan, despite all the criticism of Palin's earlier round with Katie and the inevitable Tina Fey send-up.
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New York: Howard, I can't tell you how many times I switched channels when watching Katie Couric's early days on the CBS News, but lately I've been watching more -- even the entire program. The format seems more businesslike, less gimmicky, and Couric really has a grip on the big issues, I think. Her Palin interview will be viewed as pivotal. Am I alone in my reassessment?
Howard Kurtz: No. I wrote about a year into her tenure that the "CBS Evening News" had become a better, harder-edged broadcast, jettisoning some of the features and gimmicks that it had used when Katie first jumped there from the "Today" show. But she has continued to struggle with third-place ratings, so a lot of people never went back to sample the revamped broadcast. Couric did have a good run at the conventions and is drawing some favorable attention lately.
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The debate spin war: So, why exactly do you think the McCain camp won the spin war? Especially given that virtually every poll that tracked reaction to the debate showed Obama winning?
Howard Kurtz: I don't mean to suggest that the McCain spinners changed the American public's verdict on the debate (as best that can be measured by polls), but in the 24 to 48 hours after the debate, television in particular picked up with the McCain argument that it was significant that Obama had said 11 times, "John's right" or "Sen. McCain is absolutely right." By itself, that's pretty meaningless, but because it lent itself to a video montage -- which the McCain operation helped along by rushing out a Web ad -- a number of anchors and pundits bit.
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McLean, Va.: Are there any plans to replace Tom Brokaw on "Meet The Press"? He can't hide his bias.
Howard Kurtz: I don't agree with the second statement, but Brokaw only has agreed to do "Meet the Press" through the election season. So he will be replaced, but that was always the plan after Tim Russert's death.
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Nashville, Tenn.: Mr. Kurtz, you have long been one of my favorites, but this election cycle Sen. McCain and mainstream media are at war, and you have been uncritically on the side of media in my view. The reason those of us on the right like to close ranks is because of the bias of the MSM. The fight is never a fair one in the media world with the field heavily tilted in favor of the left. For this year's coverage, bias is not a strong enough description. Journalistic malpractice is what I call it. Tony Blankley hit every nail in the hardware store on the head with his column earlier this week. Is the softball coverage of Sen. Obama journalistic malpractice?
washingtonpost.com: Media covering for Obama (Washington Times, Sept. 24)
Howard Kurtz: So Tony Blankley, a fine fellow -- and former spokesman for Newt Gingrich -- is your gold standard for objectivity? There's no one in the media who has made an issue of Obama's coverage in the past two years more frequently than I have, and I repeatedly have quoted top McCain aides as complaining about the coverage their man is getting, and explored when those complaints are justified and when they're just working the refs. You could look it up.
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Fair Lawn, N.J.: I've got the perfect ending for this election. Obama has about a five point leading going into the last week, but Palin announces that her daughter's wedding will be held just before Election Day. The media covers the wedding like it was Princess Di, and about ten percent of the most mentally-challenged independents shift, throwing the election to McCain! Wouldn't that make you question your life's vocation? Uh oh. This might actually happen.
Howard Kurtz: Good treatment for a Hollywood script, maybe.
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Austin, Texas: How is it that reporters kept saying that John McCain had "suspended his campaign"? What facts were there to actually back that assertion up? Or were they solely going on the campaign's words and not actions? And if the facts weren't there, aren't reporters guilty of being nothing but stenographers?
Howard Kurtz: To the contrary -- the media consistently questioned from the start whether McCain really was "suspending" his campaign, which he did not. News organizations reported on how he had made a speech at the Clinton Global Initiative and did an interview with Katie Couric, and how his field offices remained open and his ads were on the air. Obviously we had to cover the drama of whether he would attend Friday's debate -- when I drove to the airport that morning to go to Ole Miss I didn't know whether the thing was going to come off -- but there was a lot of journalistic skepticism on McCain's week.
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New York: Are there any facts to back up your assertion that McCain won the "spin war"? Relatedly, you cite a poll favoring Obama 52-37 in terms of Obama "may" have an advantage. What is your own margin for error of a poll?
Howard Kurtz: I think the USA Today poll today is a little more definitive than the 90-minute surveys Friday in showing that more people thought Obama won the debate than believe McCain finished on top. But again, winning the short-term spin war doesn't mean you completely change public opinion.
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Washington: Who are you reading, both in terms of current news and books, to keep abreast of the economic crisis? Never before have I felt at such a loss to understand a political issue -- abortion, gay marriage, health care, off-shore drilling, the war in Iraq. I understand enough to form an opinion. I just do not understand 90 percent of what is being said.
For the first time (I'm fairly young and a bit naive) I truly doubt that the majority of the Senate or House truly can understand the legislation they are being asked to vote on. Given months to research, gather opinions and think this through, maybe most of them would be there -- but turning it around in days/weeks seems so crazy to me.
Howard Kurtz: Read Steve Pearlstein's columns in The Post -- not only is he a sharp-eyed analyst who punctures a lot of the hype, but he was out there a year ago warning that the financial system was getting overextended. He won a Pulitzer for those columns.
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Southwest Nebraska: What does the New York Times have against McCain? From the bimbo warning in January to this weekend's gambling coverage -- I don't get it.
Howard Kurtz: Some of the stories on Palin's Alaska record have been very good. Some of the McCain stories have been very good, such as revealing the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac payments to the lobbying firm of McCain's campaign manager. And I most definitely was not a fan of the female lobbyist story from February.
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CBS and Palin: Wednesday and Thursday? Why are they waiting so long to air them?
Howard Kurtz: That was always CBS's plan -- to air them just before the vice presidential debate, which as you know is Thursday night.
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Bluffton, S.C.: From today's Media Notes: "Now we can all start debating how Palin will do in her debate this week." Are you kidding? Everyone in the news business already has decided on the story line.
Howard Kurtz: Well, the story line is that she has struggled in her two network interviews -- which is to say, her only interviews this side of Sean Hannity, so far. But it's also fair to say that expectations for Gov. Palin are rather low, so she might surprise people.
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Seattle: Howie, I've read analyses that say that Obama was addressing the American people but that McCain was addressing the commentariat with his responses, precisely to win the "post-debate spin war." Would you care to comment along that line?
Howard Kurtz: Stylistically, Obama looked at McCain at times, while McCain either stared into the camera or looked at Jim Lehrer. I was in the hall, and McCain's approach looked a bit more awkward than it came across on television. That's what some of the pundits mean when they say Obama was playing more to the home audience -- which is, of course, the only audience that counts.
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Long Island, N.Y.: Howard, is it possible that Tina Fey's portrayals of Palin on "Saturday Night Live" are more damaging to her public image than her actual words? It's almost to the point that the public thinks it's Fey's character who running for vice president, and that can't be good.
Howard Kurtz: I think Fey hasn't just been funny, but that when you look at Palin, you think about Tina. (Some of the punch lines on Saturday night were lifted verbatim from the governor's answers to Katie Couric.) This is the problem that Al Gore had in 2000, when Darrell Hammond portrayed him as a sighing, eye-rolling politician, to the point that Gore's own aides made him watch the skits so he would see how he was coming off. Palin, weirdly, said she had watched Fey's portrayal of her, but with the sound turned down.
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"High Functioning Moron": Howie, I love ya man, but your tut-tutting of the Begala remark in this morning's Media Notes is silly. Didn't you read your man Woodward's book? In case you missed it, Woodward quoted this president as having no regrets about the two or three years it took him to realize the war was failing and to do something about it.
Can you understand what that means -- that so many brave Americans may not have died or have been maimed if he had acted promptly as a commander in chief would be expected to? Howie, Bush's lack of insight/compassion and utter faith in his own terrible instincts are worthy of Begala's remark, if not more so. If only media pundits had been brave enough to say this then rather than now. Please get off your tut-tutting high horse.
Howard Kurtz: I am not questioning the substance of the criticism -- as a commentator, Paul Begala is free to say whatever the heck he wants about Bush's flaws. I simply think calling a president a "high-functioning moron" is over the line. If you want to cheer, be my guest.
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Fort Lee, N.J.: Do you think MC Cain was showing contempt for his opponent by not making eye contact for 90 minutes? I thought there was overtly contemptuous treatment of Obama by Bill O'Reilly, who never would have talked over and interrupted any other U.S. Senator. Compare that interview with the two interviews of Palin -- somewhat aggressive questioning, but polite. Couric even threw her a lifeline when she couldn't think of a word. I think there's the mother of all double standards going on here, and it doesn't make the media look very good. By contrast, Jim Lehrer showed how it's done -- he doesn't have to go around proclaiming how much honor he has in his character, he shows it through the way he conducts himself. I hope the other moderators have observed and stop the grand-standing and foolishness that we saw before, particularly in the ABC debate.
Howard Kurtz: On the contempt question, I honestly don't know. McCain simply may have wanted to stay focused on his own answers by staring at the camera, but I do think it came off as a bit condescending. I don't agree that Couric threw Palin a "lifeline" when she suggested the word "mocked" -- that's not exactly defining the Bush doctrine for her. As for Lehrer, this was his 10th presidential debate, and he always manages to keep the candidates on the issues without calling attention to himself.
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Thursday? Friday?: Please explain to me why the Presidential debate was on a Friday night. I made sure my plans included the debate, but it is a difficult night for many people to be at home. Obviously, it is a low-ratings night in general. Should not the goal of the Debate Commission be to maximize the eyes and ears that see the debates? What's next, midnight?
Howard Kurtz: I thought it was a dumb idea. Apparently it has happened before, but it's just not a great TV-viewing night. I do know there often are scheduling difficulties this time of year to avoid conflicting with the baseball playoffs or Jewish holidays.
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Washington Metro: Hi, Mr. Kurtz. I just saw a clip from one of McCain's spokespersons (Pfotenhauer, I believe, on "Fox and Friends") where she said that vice presidential debate moderator Gwen Ifill will have to "answer for herself" if she asks too many foreign-policy questions. Did she just brazenly threaten Gwen Ifill? That's just unacceptable. She's basically admitting that Gov. Palin cannot answer a range of questions, and putting the responsibility for dumbed-down questions on Ifill. Again, unacceptable. If Palin can't answer questions, then she should be replaced. Period. This is over-the-top thuggery, even for the McCain campaign.
Howard Kurtz: I didn't see it, but journalists -- even debate moderators -- are hardly above criticism. What's a little strange is to be chided before the debate.
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New York: What's wrong with the Times's piece on McCain's gambling? Time magazine reported on it back in July. The press corps has known about it for years. Was there something untoward in the New York Times's reporting? If so, please let me know what it is. I thought it was a fair piece, based solely on the facts. Do you disagree, Howard?
washingtonpost.com: For McCain and Team, a Host of Ties to Gambling (New York Times, Sept. 28)
Howard Kurtz: I think the implication was that the Times seems to be publishing a striking number of investigative pieces about McCain. To which I'd note that the paper ran a front-page story this past the weekend on false or misleading statements in Obama's ads, after having previously run such a piece on McCain's ads.
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Kansas City, Mo.: When the McCain campaign makes statements like "the New York Times is in the tank for Obama," any idea of what the campaign reporters think of that statement? Also, when they make that kind of claim, has anyone asked them if they think Fox News is in the tank for the GOP and is no longer a credible news organization?
Howard Kurtz: Here's what Times Executive Editor Bill Keller told me after the McCain campaign denounced the paper's story about the lobbyist in February: "They're trying to change the subject to us" and attempting "to use the New York Times as an opportunity to rally the base."
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Albany, N.Y.: I don't want to speak ill of the dead, but the difference between having the late Tim Russert up there springing his "gotcha" questions and Mr. Lehrer conducting himself as a journalist and not trying to prove that he's more clever than the candidates is wonderful indeed. There's a reason why the debate itself got good reviews, irrespective of party. When you don't notice the umpire, he called a good game, right?
Howard Kurtz: That's certainly the way Lehrer prefers it. Interestingly, he told me during the Republican convention: "The pressure is extraordinary. You can ask something, say something, do something that affects the outcome of the election."
Tim Russert was the first to agree that he had a totally different style, the more pugnacious approach you saw on display on "Meet the Press" as well as at the debates he moderated. Sometimes it seemed like he was debating the candidate, but he got results.
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Gwen Ifill: So the McCain camp says "you better not ask too many questions on international issues." Okay, fair enough. I would be very interested to hear about her view on domestic matters. If Ms. Ifill asks too many domestic-based questions will she get in trouble with McCain's talking heads?
Howard Kurtz: Gwen has a thick skin. I'm sure she's not worried about that. She already has done one of these, between Cheney and Edwards in 2004.
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Menomonie, Wis.: For once, I actually agree with you. I am not sure if Begala is aware of it, but "high-functioning moron" is actually a derogatory term for those with Asperser's Syndrome, a form of high-functioning autism. The irony here is that those with Asperser's actually are very intelligent but socially inept. Begala should not have called Bush a "high-functioning moron" because while Begala may have intended to insult only Bush, he insulted many with Asperser's Syndrome by using that term. By the way, I'm a Democrat and do not like Bush myself!
Howard Kurtz: Thanks for your view.
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Springfield, Va.: Robin Givhan hosted a chat about Gov. Palin's style earlier today; has she ever hosted a chat about Obama's choice in suits, Biden's shoes, or McCain's selection of ties? Why does The Post encourage sexist reporting like this?
washingtonpost.com: Givhan hasn't done discussions on the other candidates, but has written articles on the styles of Obama and McCain.
Howard Kurtz: She also wrote a piece about the allegedly inappropriate parka that Vice President Cheney once wore to a state funeral.
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The debate knockout myth: Howard, one of the many overblown stories that media pundits, such as Howard Fineman in this case, love to promote is the idea that one of the candidates should win a debate by "knockout." In this instance, it's Obama, and because he didn't, he "missed an opportunity." What opportunity? How many debates can you think of that were won decisively by a candidate? In most cases, if one candidate has a "good night," that really means the other guy had a bad day. Most debates aren't won or lost, but the ones that are decisive aren't won, they're lost.
Besides, how many examples do we need to point out where the candidate who wins the debates still loses the election (see Kerry, John; or Bentsen, Lloyd)? I think this is a case where the media projects their fantasies onto reality Kind of like the idea that we were going to have a brokered convention when, if you actually understood and reviewed the process, you realized Obama had won the nomination in February.
Howard Kurtz: Debates almost never end in knockouts. But to say that one candidate or another missed an opportunity is not saying the same thing. Monday-morning quarterbacking is easy: Obama should have been more aggressive toward McCain, not agreed with him as much, McCain should have been less acerbic, etc. Each candidate approached the debate with a different mission in mind. McCain wanted to show that Obama is an unqualified neophyte on foreign policy. Obama wanted to show that he could go toe-to-toe with McCain on the Republican's perceived area of strength. He may have avoided insulting McCain because he is trying to practice a less openly partisan brand of politics. Ultimately the voters, not the pundits, will decide.
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Arlington, Va.: Some of Palin's answers to Katie were troubling, but so are many of the gaffes coming form Sen. Biden that never seem to make it into the print version of The Post. Why the double standard?
Howard Kurtz: We have reported on virtually every gaffe Biden has made, and there have been a number of them. These probably should have been pulled together into one larger piece.
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McLean, Va.: Re: Cheney's Parka -- if I recall, it wasn't at a state funeral, but at an outdoor (winter) memorial service at one of the Nazi death camps; I agree with Givhan that it looked inappropriate, but on the other hand, Central Europe in winter really is cold.
washingtonpost.com: Dick Cheney, Dressing Down (Post, Jan. 28, 2005)
Howard Kurtz: Right on both counts.
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Gainesville, Va.: A couple of quick thoughts on the events of last week. First, I thought Couric was totally disingenuous when she brought up the term "Great Depression" during the Palin interview, got the governor to use herself, then hit McCain by saying that Palin had likened the current situation to the Great Depression. Sure, Palin should have been smart enough not to fall into that trap, but Katie definitely set it.
Second, I seem to be alone in having been thoroughly unimpressed with Lehrer's performance at the debate. I can understand why the financial crisis would be a topic, but he devoted more than a third of the time to it, which was way excessive to me. I saw his continuing to press the candidates for their views on the bailout plan -- it was still being negotiated, and therefore it was inappropriate for them to comment at that point -- as useless, rather than holding their feet to the fire. I thought most of his other questions were pretty lame as well, especially the last one. And I say this as a big fan of his, someone who primarily watches PBS during the conventions and other big political events.
Howard Kurtz: I disagree on, let's see, every single point. I thought Couric was pretty straightforward in her questioning, but even if she wasn't, if you can't handle Katie, how are you going to handle Putin when he invades Alaskan air space? Lehrer did exactly the right thing in devoting that much time to the financial crisis -- it was the absolute dominant issue of the moment, with huge stakes for everyone. And if the congressional negotiations were important enough for McCain to supposedly put his campaign on hold, wouldn't it be important enough to ask two sitting senators for their positions on the legislation? Both sort of ducked, but that wasn't Jim Lehrer's fault.
Thanks for the chat, folks.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 29, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Shailagh Murray, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3177 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Monday, Sept. 29 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone. Lots to talk about today. How is John McCain going to regain the momentum? How can Obama put it away? I'd love to hear from you.
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Asheville, N.C.: When polls conducted by The Army Times and others repeatedly have shown the same attitudes toward Iraq, Afghanistan and other military security matters as the rest of us, what can be the point of any story that merely points out how McCain has mobilized specific veterans to support a campaign he has going on? Propaganda in the service of his campaign, that's what.
washingtonpost.com: Brothers in Arms Hit Road to Rally Support for McCain (Post, Sept. 29)
Shailagh Murray: An interesting subplot to the campaign this year. I thought one of the most striking moments on Friday night came with that exchange over the bracelets -- which illustrated your point that people serving in the military have different views, especially on the Iraq war. It's definitely the case that McCain has sought to mobilize service members and create a juggernaut effect -- I'm sure many of you have seen that powerful YouTube video featuring the disabled young man. An aggressive email campaign also is advocating McCain, shall we say, while raising some rather serious claims about Obama.
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Providence, R.I.: Shailagh, I'm curious about preparation for the vice presidential debate. Bob Kaiser's excellent piece revealed that the stand-ins spend a good deal of time researching the debating style of the opposition candidate, so they can give a realistic performance during rehearsals. But Sarah Palin has very limited debate experience; how is the Biden team coping with this? Who's playing Palin in the rehearsals? Thanks for the chat.
washingtonpost.com: Grueling Prep Work Precedes Critical Clash (Post, Sept. 27)
Shailagh Murray: The last report I saw was that Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm was playing Palin. But I'm not sure that's still the case -- all of you who follow this closely, please alert me if the plan is changed.
A wise political person I know cracked that Biden should approach this as a joint appearance, not a debate. That's probably the right attitude. For the Biden folks, the challenge with Palin is that the person we saw in St. Paul is not the person we saw in the Katie Couric interview. She seems to be less in command with every new public appearance. It's one thing for Biden to challenge the confident, even cocky woman at the convention. But someone who is sputtering is way more of a challenge. Above all else you don't want to humiliate her, that would be disaster in my view.
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Fairfax County, Va.: Tom Brokaw clearly showed on Sunday that Bill Clinton is praising McCain more than Obama. Clinton to my ear also is praising Palin more warmly than Joe Biden. A few questions from me as a loyal Democrat and Obama supporter: Why isn't Hillary in charge of the Clinton camp's response? Her husband is totally undercutting her. Since she lost, is he back in the lead? Wouldn't the Obama people be insane to put this man on the road for them? Do you think they will, anyway? What happened between Bill Clinton's convention speech and this past week to sour him on Obama?
Shailagh Murray: I don't get this. It's as if they're not even communicating. For weeks now Hillary has played the good soldier, but as we've seen before (OVER and OVER and OVER again) her husband with a few choice sentences can undercut her like nothing else. That said, I expect President Clinton will spend lots of time in Florida and Ohio in particular, but especially Florida, a state the Obama folks believe is now well within their reach.
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Washington: Please let the readers know that "The Army Times" isn't a soldiers publication, and is owned by Gannett...
Shailagh Murray: Passing this on.
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Marysville, Wash.: I've contacted all of my representatives in the District to voice my opposition to the bailout, and want to know if there's anything else I might do to stop it from passing.
Shailagh Murray: You've done more than most to express your concerns.
But I don't think it's going to work. Many lawmakers truly hate this thing, but the prospect of being blamed for wiping out 401ks and home equity is even scarier.
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Northern Virginia: I think there is a difference between people now serving in the military, who seem (anecdotally) split between Obama and McCain, and people who are veterans, who your story tells me are leaning McCain, even though a third favor Obama. The difference is that veterans, as a demographic, include more old people. Every poll shows that both young and middle-aged people favor Obama, while older people, broadly speaking, trend toward McCain. So it isn't surprising that an older group likes McCain.
Shailagh Murray: This is an excellent point. Thanks for weighing in.
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Crystal City, Va.: With White House support, and the Senate on board, please tell me why the Democrats in the House did not pass this bill last week? They are the majority and don't need the Republican votes, do they?
Shailagh Murray: Nobody wanted to own this legislation -- what a surprise! The truth is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had plenty of problems in her own caucus, especially on the left, and she wasn't about to hang them out there. This is an all for one, one for all situation for both sides.
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Southington, Conn.: Why, in your story on McCain's tactics, did you state that the debate produced no clear winner? Many polls showed Obama clearly winning. Not an attack on your reporting, I'm just curious.
washingtonpost.com: McCain Ready for A Change Of Subject (Post, Sept. 28)
Shailagh Murray: Honestly I am skeptical about scoring winners and losers in debates. Now and then it's obvious, but mostly it isn't. I was surprised at how many commentators gave McCain the clear victory, but it seemed they were mostly reacting to the flashes of old McCain that came through from time to time, which I suppose helped to neutralize what had been a stunningly awful week for the Republican nominee. Low expectations are a wonderful thing -- as I'm sure Sarah Palin is reassuring herself as she starts her debate prep.
Certainly all the polls suggest you are right, that Obama won the debate. I would put it a bit differently -- that Obama benefited slightly more than McCain, because of the disparity in style and demeanor.
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Waterville, Maine: Good morning. Apparently, Sarah Palin is being whisked off to McCain's Sedona ranch to cram for her debate with Biden on Thursday. I couldn't help but notice how many conservative pundits and journalists are aghast at her interview with Katie Couric and, according to Howard Kurtz, there is more to come. Let's not mince words: Bo objective person concerned about the future of this country would consider her qualified to step in as president in an emergency. She makes Dan Quayle's selection seem brilliant. How worried is the McCain camp that she has become a liability instead of an asset, and when will she make an appearance on the Sunday shows? God, I wish Tim Russert was still with us. Having her "Meet the Press" with Russert would be priceless. Your thoughts?
Shailagh Murray: Is this not the most amazing political drama in forever? I mean, where the heck does it go?
My sense is that perception may be starting to move beyond alarm and into pity. A few of my non-political female friends and family members are now mad at McCain's campaign for setting Palin up to fail. Go figure. One woman I spoke to over the weekend said she's not going to watch the debate because she doesn't want to Palin humiliate herself.
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Another McCain Gamble: Any thought on letting Tina Fey do the debate? But seriously, how much of this concern is genuine, and how much is lowering expectations? I really don't see why, given this limited format and the moderator chosen (Ifill is hardly a bomb-thrower) that any politician in any statewide office couldn't get through it without much damage. They're going to spin it as a victory in any event. It's just a job interview, not the SAT. And Biden has to back off, or he'll look like a bully. What's the big deal?
washingtonpost.com: Game Plan for Palin Is Retooled Ahead of Debate (Wall Street Journal, Sept. 29)
Shailagh Murray: Palin's mistake last week, in my humble opinion, was to bluff through issues that nobody expects her to command. Instead of trying to sound like a secretary of state, she should have said, hey, I'm a governor. My perspective on foreign policy is more about immigration and trade than post cold war diplomacy. And then steer the conversation to terrain where she felt more comfortable.
The fact that she didn't do that suggests that she's not thinking well on her feet. Which frankly is probably the worst handicap a politician could have.
_______________________
Rockville, Md.: Ms. Murray, I have not read any informed commentary on Biden's debating skills and style. We presume that he has a deep base of knowledge on national and international issues, but that does not by itself make a great debater. Has anyone published material on this recently? What do you know of his skills as a debater? Thank you.
Shailagh Murray: Biden actually has been pretty strong in debates. If you've ever seen him on the Sunday shows, it's similar. He's focused and aggressive. During the primary season, he probably made more of an impact than any of the other overlooked second-tier candidates.
That said, this is a VERY tricky situation. Biden's strength is that he is well versed on the full gamut of domestic and foreign policy issues. It's almost impossible to stump him. Unless he gets his tone right he could sound like a know-it-all.
The biggest challenge may be Gwen's. She has to come up with questions that are fair to both candidates.
_______________________
Fairfax, VA: I don't know if this is really a political question but all the articles I'm reading about the bailout seem to be skirting the issue of exactly how much everyday taxpayers are going to have to fork over to pay for it. I'm absolutely livid at the banks for their irresponsible lending, the politicians for their greed and power hungriness in letting it go on and to Bush for refusing to see it ahead of time. But, bottom line, how much am I, as a US taxpayer making $86000 a year going to have to pay for this bailout?
Shailagh Murray: Don't you break a sweat. We'll just borrow the money from China. Or excuse me, borrow MORE money from China.
Actually much of this bailout does not involve cash payouts by the U.S. government. I urge you to check out the many stories in today's newspapers that outline the legislation -- it's more complex than you can imagine.
But rest assured, you will be paying for it eventually. The more debt the government takes on, the fewer services it can provide, and the higher taxes have to rise.
On the other hand, perhaps this bailout will prevent a massive meltdown that would wipe out your retirement savings and home equity, so look on the bright side.
_______________________
Palin: I know people who feel the pity you described -- I almost (but not quite) feel bad for her. The bigger question, though: Are those people going to vote for McCain because they feel sorry for her, or shake their heads and vote for Obama?
Shailagh Murray: Well, the Republican friend I cited seems to be leaning towards the latter.
_______________________
Reston, Va.: "Palin's mistake last week, in my humble opinion, was to bluff through issues that nobody expects her to command." If nobody expects her to command those issues, why ask the questions in the first place?
Shailagh Murray: It wasn't the questions, it was the answers. It's knowing your own limits.
_______________________
New York: What's the deal with Palin? Is she an intelligent person who has been mishandled by a bunch of political operatives, or is there really no there there? Thanks.
Shailagh Murray: We don't really know, do we? Perhaps that will be revealed on Thursday. Or maybe not, the way the last week has gone. Maybe St. Louis will be hit by a hurricane AND a financial meltdown.
_______________________
Fort Lee, N.J.: If you'll notice, it looks like Huckabee is acting a lot like Clinton -- ostensibly supporting the nominee, but providing sound bites that don't always put his guy in a great light. What's his game?
Shailagh Murray: Yeah, except Huckabee won Iowa and Bill Clinton was the dang president.
_______________________
Richmond, Va.: I see McCain ads jumping on Obama for saying McCain was right a few times in the debate (while leaving out the qualifiers). I fail to see the problem with admitting you may agree with your opponent on some issues. I am soooo tired of the Tom Delay world.
Shailagh Murray: And you are exactly the voter that Barack Obama is trying to reach this year.
_______________________
Toronto: My sister, who lives in Texas, has anecdotal evidence of a reverse Bradley effect among moderate Republicans -- i.e. in the privacy of the voting booth, they will vote for Obama. Has anyone in the media examined this?
Shailagh Murray: I totally buy this. I have encountered some of these folks in the South especially, Republicans who have never identified with the religious conservative faction of their party and who are fed up with race baiting and divisions. I would expect to see some of this behavior in North Carolina and Florida. Maybe not enough to make a difference, but enough to notice and ponder.
_______________________
Boston: I thought the debate was pretty even. Given the bump in polls, did the Obama team do a better job spinning the debate afterward?
Shailagh Murray: They were both making me dizzy, so I would call the post-debate a draw for sure.
_______________________
Cambridge, Mass.: Do you think there' a chance that McCain votes against the bailout at the last minute to give himself some sort of separation from both Bush and Obama on this issue? It would seem to be a possible winning gamble for him, in that he could rail against it for a month and try and win.
Shailagh Murray: I thought that last week but it now seems that both candidates are on board, perhaps McCain more reluctantly. But hey, he can't take credit for helping to cut the deal, if he doesn't vote for it.
_______________________
Washington: Not being cynical, because I like Sen. McCain, but did Gov. Palin talk like she has with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric when she ran for governor? Because I can't believe her opponent could have had worse presentation.
Shailagh Murray: It would certainly appear from the extensive news coverage of Palin's Alaska years that she was an open book, very accessible and certainly no shrinking violet. But what she's attempting is a HUGE leap. Way bigger than it would be for the governor of just about any other state, because Alaska is so far off the radar screen in just about every way.
_______________________
Re: Richmond, Va.'s Question: McCain's ad criticizing Obama for agreeing with him is a bit strange. He says that Obama is naive and does not understand ... but he is agreeing with a point that McCain is making! Seems like a logical disjoint to me.
Shailagh Murray: Good point.
_______________________
Pity Palin?: I'm sorry, but she accepted the vice presidential slot on the ticket. No sympathy from this voter.
Shailagh Murray: That would be the other side of the argument, and I'm sure you're not alone.
_______________________
Santa Barbara, Calif.: Before the Gore-Bush debate, it was widely assumed that Gore, the seasoned, wily debater, would trample over Bush. Do you think there are any parallels between that and the Biden/Palin debate?
Shailagh Murray: This speaks to the point I was just making, which is that you cannot discount how out there Alaska is. Bush was far more experienced on the public stage than Palin -- he was the son of a president, for crissakes, and he was governor of a high-profile and politically sophisticated state. Also, he did know his limitations -- he stuck to issues like immigration and taxes, turf that was familiar to him. But you are absolutely right that knowing a lot does not guarantee a strong debate performance.
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Alaska as a small state: Sorry, that won't wash. Arkansas is a small, impoverished, minor state. It's the candidate, not the venue.
Shailagh Murray: Let's start with the fact that Alaska is a state that mails checks to its residents each year.
_______________________
Potomac, Md.: Sarah needs to focus on the zingers and being mean-spirited. She shouldn't even try to get up to speed to keep up with Biden; that's a lost cause. She has to rail against big-city elitism, and make snide comments against the snotty Democrat Party. Let Sarah be Sarah.
Shailagh Murray: Free advice for the McCain camp.
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No laughing matter...: Shailagh: Borrowing more money from China is no laughing matter. If U.S. markets continue to look sour, then a great deal of the foreign investment that supports those markets may be withdrawn and deepen the bad times ahead. Either way, being so far in debt only will limit U.S. strategy and policy options in the future.
Shailagh Murray: Oh believe me, I am not laughing.
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Washington State: Good morning. I don't understand the McCain campaign strategy -- after curtailing campaigning last week, he had nothing on over the weekend, and only has one event scheduled this week. With time so short, is that smart? It's fueling conspiracy theories that something else is making him slow down. What do you think? Thanks.
Shailagh Murray: McCain thrives on chaos, and so he has to create some chaos in order to thrive. Maybe he just hasn't hit on the right form of chaos. I'm sure we'll find out.
I'm signing off but thanks for another round of well informed comments and questions. I love hearing from you all and as always I am sorry I can't answer everyone. Have a good week. Thanks, and cheers.
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 28, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
McCain's Suspension Bridge to Nowhere
BYLINE: By FRANK RICH
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 11
LENGTH: 1601 words
WHAT we learned last week is that the man who always puts his ''country first'' will take the country down with him if that's what it takes to get to the White House.
For all the focus on Friday night's deadlocked debate, it still can't obscure what preceded it: When John McCain gratuitously parachuted into Washington on Thursday, he didn't care if his grandstanding might precipitate an even deeper economic collapse. All he cared about was whether he might save his campaign. George Bush put more deliberation into invading Iraq than McCain did into his own reckless invasion of the delicate Congressional negotiations on the bailout plan.
By the time he arrived, there already was a bipartisan agreement in principle. It collapsed hours later at the meeting convened by the president in the Cabinet Room. Rather than help try to resuscitate Wall Street's bloodied bulls, McCain was determined to be the bull in Washington's legislative china shop, running around town and playing both sides of his divided party against Congress's middle. Once others eventually forged a path out of the wreckage, he'd inflate, if not outright fictionalize, his own role in cleaning up the mess his mischief helped make. Or so he hoped, until his ignominious retreat.
The question is why would a man who forever advertises his own honor toy so selfishly with our national interest at a time of crisis. I'll leave any physiological explanations to gerontologists -- if they can get hold of his complete medical records -- and any armchair psychoanalysis to the sundry McCain press acolytes who have sorrowfully tried to rationalize his erratic behavior this year. The other answers, all putting politics first, can be found by examining the 24 hours before he decided to ''suspend'' campaigning and swoop down on the Capitol to save America from the Sunnis or the Shia, or whoever perpetrated all those credit-default swaps.
To put these 24 hours in context, you must remember that McCain not only knows little about the economy but that he has not previously expressed any urgency about its meltdown. It was on Sept. 15 -- the day after his former idol Alan Greenspan pronounced the current crisis a ''once-in-a-century'' catastrophe -- that McCain reaffirmed for the umpteenth time that the ''fundamentals of our economy are strong.'' As recently as Tuesday he had not yet even read the two-and-a-half-page bailout proposal first circulated by Hank Paulson last weekend. ''I have not had a chance to see it in writing,'' he explained. (Maybe he was waiting for it to arrive by Western Union instead of PDF.)
Then came Black Wednesday -- not for the stock market, which was holding steady in anticipation of Washington action, but for McCain. As the widely accepted narrative has it, his come-to-Jesus moment arrived that morning, when he awoke to discover that Barack Obama had surged ahead by nine percentage points in the Washington Post/ABC News poll. The McCain campaign hastily suited up its own pollster to belittle that finding -- only to be drowned out by a fusillade of new polls from Fox News, Marist and CNN/Time, each with numbers closer to Post/ABC than not. Obama was rising most everywhere except the moose strongholds of Alaska and Montana.
That was not the only bad news raining down on McCain. His camp knew what Katie Couric had in the can from her interview with Sarah Palin. The first excerpt was to be broadcast by CBS that night, and it had to be upstaged fast.
But even that wasn't the top political threat McCain faced last week. Bigger still was the mounting evidence of the seamless synergy between his campaign and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage monsters at the heart of the housing bust that set off our current calamity. Most of all, it was the fast-moving events on that front that precipitated his panic to roll out his diversionary, over-the-top theatrics on Wednesday.
What we were learning -- through The New York Times, Newsweek and Roll Call -- was ugly. Davis Manafort, the lobbying firm owned by McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, had received $15,000 a month from Freddie Mac from late 2005 until last month. This was in addition to the $30,000 a month that Davis was paid from 2000 to 2005 by the so-called Homeownership Alliance, an advocacy organization that he headed and that was financed by Freddie and Fannie to fight regulation.
The McCain campaign tried to pre-emptively deflect such revelations by reviving the old Rove trick of accusing your opponent of your own biggest failings. It ran attack ads about Obama's own links to the mortgage giants. But neither of the former Freddie-Fannie executives vilified in those ads, Franklin Raines and James Johnson, had worked at those companies lately or are currently associated with the Obama campaign. (Raines never worked for the campaign at all.) By contrast, Davis is the tip of the Freddie-Fannie-McCain iceberg. McCain's senior adviser, his campaign's vice chairman, his Congressional liaison and the reported head of his White House transition team all either made fortunes from recent Freddie-Fannie lobbying or were players in firms that did.
By Wednesday, the McCain campaign's latest tactic for countering this news -- attacking the press, especially The Times -- was paying diminishing returns. Davis abruptly canceled his scheduled appearance that day at a weekly reporters' lunch sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor, escaping any further questions by pleading that he had to hit the campaign trail. (He turned up at the ''21'' Club in New York that night, wining and dining McCain fund-raisers.)
It's then that Angry Old Ironsides McCain suddenly emerged to bark that our financial distress was ''the greatest crisis we've faced, clearly, since World War II'' -- even greater than the Russia-Georgia conflict, which in August he had called the ''first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the cold war.'' Campaigns, debates and no doubt Bristol Palin's nuptials had to be suspended immediately so he could ride to the rescue, with Joe Lieberman as his Robin.
Yet even as he huffed and puffed about being a ''leader,'' McCain took no action and felt no urgency. As his Congressional colleagues worked tirelessly in Washington, he malingered in New York. He checked out the suffering on Main Street (or perhaps High Street) by conferring with Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, the Hillary-turned-McCain supporter best known for her fabulous London digs and her diatribes against Obama's elitism. McCain also found time to have a well-publicized chat with one of those celebrities he so disdains, Bono, and to give a self-promoting public speech at the Clinton Global Initiative.
There was no suspension of his campaign. His surrogates and ads remained on television. Huffington Post bloggers, working the phones, couldn't find a single McCain campaign office that had gone on hiatus. This ''suspension'' ruse was an exact replay of McCain's self-righteous ''suspension'' of the G.O.P. convention as Hurricane Gustav arrived on Labor Day. ''We will put aside our political hats and put on our American hats,'' he declared then, solemnly pledging that conventioneers would help those in need. But as anyone in the Twin Cities could see, the assembled put on their party hats instead, piling into the lobbyists' bacchanals earlier than scheduled, albeit on the down-low.
Much of the press paid lip service to McCain's new ''suspension'' as it had to its prototype. In truth, the only campaign activity McCain did drop was a Wednesday evening taping with David Letterman. Don't mess with Dave. Picking up where the ''The View'' left off in speaking truth to power, the uncharacteristically furious host hammered the absent McCain on and off for 40 minutes, repeatedly observing that the cancellation ''didn't smell right.''
In a journalistic coup de grace worthy of ''60 Minutes,'' Letterman went on to unmask his no-show guest as a liar. McCain had phoned himself that afternoon to say he was ''getting on a plane immediately'' to deal with the grave situation in Washington, Letterman told the audience. Then he showed video of McCain being touched up by a makeup artist while awaiting an interview by Couric that same evening at another CBS studio in New York.
It's not hard to guess why McCain had blown off Letterman for Couric at the last minute. The McCain campaign's high anxiety about the disastrous Couric-Palin sit-down was skyrocketing as advance excerpts flooded the Internet. By offering his own interview to Couric for the same night, McCain hoped (in vain) to dilute Palin's primacy on the ''CBS Evening News.''
Letterman's most mordant laughs on Wednesday came when he riffed about McCain's campaign ''suspension'': ''Do you suspend your campaign? No, because that makes me think maybe there will be other things down the road, like if he's in the White House, he might just suspend being president. I mean, we've got a guy like that now!''
That's no joke. Bush has so little credibility he can govern only through surrogates (Paulson is the new Petraeus). When he spoke about the economic crisis in prime time earlier that same night, he registered as no more than an irritating speed bump en route to ''David Blaine: Dive of Death.''
It's that utter power vacuum that gave McCain the opening to pull his potentially catastrophic display of economic ''leadership'' last week. He may be the first presidential candidate in our history to risk wrecking the country even before being voted into the Oval Office.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: September 28, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: DRAWING (DRAWING BY BARRY BLITT)
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Op-Ed
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
338 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
September 28, 2008 Sunday
Every Edition
Too Good To Be True? It Usually Is.;
Snopes.com Sniffs Out What You Can Believe
BYLINE: Monica Hesse; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. M01
LENGTH: 1192 words
This election has been hard on all of our inboxes.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (cut and pasted) head on a patriotically bikini'd bod? Sen. Barack Obama cluelessly chatting on a (Photoshopped) upside-down phone? Sen. John McCain identifying himself -- according to a totally mangled forward -- as a "war criminal"?
Gotta be fakes, all of them. Right?
Because why would a grown man hold a phone upside do-- well, then again, it wouldn't be the first time a politician was a doofus maximus. So maybe, just to be on the safe side. . . .
Which is why no inbox has had it harder in these last frenzied weeks than the one belonging to David and Barbara Mikkelson, the founders and sole researchers at urban legend mega-site Snopes.com.
The couple debunked each of the myths above, along with dozens more allegations ranging from the wacko (a claim that the Bible identifies Obama as the antichrist) to the wonko (a widely circulated comparison of the two candidates' tax plans).
Snopes receives 6.3 million site visits a month, according to media measurement company Quantcast, and about 600 e-mailed research requests a day from desperate voters who don't know What. To. Believe.
"Usually it's around 400," says Barbara, 49. "But, election season." She sighs.
"A lot of people don't realize," David, 48, says wearily, "that our site is just two people."
Working out of their living room.
And so the confused masses write. And writeandwriteandwrite. Not always about politics, though in recent weeks politics has dominated the site. Forget about Cokelore, forget about Glurge -- two classic Snopes categories. Currently Palin, Obama, Sen. Joe Biden and McCain, in that order, top the "Hottest 25 Legends," a compilation updated daily of the terms generating the most reader e-mails and user searches.
This confused and earnest quest for the truth is why the Mikkelsons refuse to classify any request as stupid. It's not about stupidity. It's about desperation. Studies have shown that people will believe anything that's repeated multiple times, which, in these days of mass e-mails, constitutes just about everything. It makes getting to the bottom of something a battle between our real desire for truth and the limits of our neurological makeup.
Occasionally, the most bizarro queries end up being true. Sort of. Yes, Barack Obama did say that he'd visited 57 states during his campaign. But according to the video footage David and Barbara provide, it appears to be a flub born of exhaustion: He had actually visited 47. The Mikkelsons found no evidence, FYI, that Obama was secretly referring to the 57 member states of the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
Each of their sources is cited, each of their entries is marked with a color-coded circle standing for true or false (and occasionally, undetermined).
Ah, Snopes. What a stalwart it has become, a sort of go-to intellectual Drano clearing out the apocryphal political sewage that clogs our brains more and more each day.
It's morphed into its own verb -- Snopesed, Snopesing, Snopesifying -- part of an information-overloaded election where stuff needs to be fact-checked, where believing everyone is lying seems more like smarts than paranoia. "I was Snopesing about last night," a user on a parenting message board writes in wonder, "and I discovered that the bulk of [Cindy McCain's] good deeds are more than just right-wing wonkery."
It's a one-sentence rebuttal to even the bat-craziest of e-mail forwards: Dude. Snopesify that junk.
Such oracle-like power was not the original intent of David and Barbara, who met cute in 1994 on a user group dedicated to discussing urban legends. Barbara moved from Ottawa to be with David, setting up a rudimentary Snopes in their Los Angeles area home. Their site takes its name from a particularly pernicious family peopling a William Faulkner trilogy -- and papering academia with hundreds of doctoral dissertations.
A few years ago, David left his job as a computer programmer to join his wife in full-time myth-busting (income is from ad space purchased on the site), and recently they hired an assistant whose sole job is reading through the massive piles of nutty that seem to signify everything from mudslinging partisanship to the death of satire.
Just the other day, they received a note from someone wanting to know the veracity of a newscast entitled "2008 Election Results Leaked," in which a voter complains, "If you can't trust the shadowy overlords that run your election, who can you trust?"
The video was from the Onion, a satirical newspaper whose current headlines include "No One on SWAT Team Wants to Wait in Ventilation Duct With Howard."
The Mikkelsons, who consider themselves apolitical -- Barbara's still Canadian -- opted not to debunk that particular story. They try to reserve precious Snopesifying man-hours for the stories they think have the most legs, the highest likelihood of going viral.
But they couldn't overlook another query, not after it was e-mailed by dozens of concerned readers. Branded as a series of Palin quotes, the document contained such ramblers as, "God made dinosaurs . . . so that when they died and became petroleum products we, in his perfect image, could use them in our snow machines, pickup trucks and fishing boats."
This text, as you, dear elite intellectual reader, may have suspected, is meant to be a joke. The Mikkelsons traced it to a blog labeling it as satire, not once but three separate times.
And yet, the e-mails came: "Does Sarah Palin really believe that dinosaurs are lizards of the Devil?"
"After you've received a few hundred e-mails like these," says David, "you figure that even if it looks obvious it's not obvious to everyone. . . . There's never anything so ridiculous that at least some people won't believe it."
It's ironic that Snopes is receiving more research requests than ever, says David, because most of what people are looking to verify isn't that hard to find. Although some rumors still require library visits or the combing of city records, many others can be put to bed with a few e-mails or a Googling of an online primary source. (Nothing compared with the three weeks of solid research Barbara says she once spent addressing an e-mail asserting that Bill Clinton had arranged for the deaths of 50 opponents.)
Still, some people, apparently exhausted from trying to sort through anything themselves, completely give up.
"People will forward us the entire text of a New York Times or Washington Post editorial, wanting to know if it's true," says David. "What can you say beyond, 'Well, it's someone's opinion.' "
Or, he says, people will e-mail a document asking, Did someone really write this? Obviously someone wrote it, he wants to tell them. Because you just sent it to me.
"It's kind of flattering and kind of scary," he says. "We never had any intent of becoming political screens -- it just kind of snowballed."
"The only reason we do politics," says Barbara, "is that we get so many political inquiries that it finally becomes easier just to answer them." If they ignored them, she says, those forwards would just keep clogging their inbox, again and again and again.
LOAD-DATE: September 28, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; The Web site is crowded with tales of the candidates in the presidential race.
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The Washington Post
September 28, 2008 Sunday
Met 2 Edition
McCain Ready for A Change Of Subject;
Credit Crisis Has Given Obama a Distinct Edge
BYLINE: Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1120 words
In the two weeks that the Wall Street financial crisis has dominated the political debate, the presidential race has shifted from what had been essentially a dead heat to one in which Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a narrow but perceptible advantage nationally, as well as in a number of battleground states.
The burden now falls on Sen. John McCain to reverse the effects of the focus on the economy, and to keep the contest close enough so that a dominant debate performance, a gaffe by Obama or some outside event can shift the momentum back to him.
Although Friday's debate in Oxford, Miss., produced no outright winner, strategists in both parties said the coming weeks, which will include three more debates -- two between McCain and Obama and the third between vice presidential candidates Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. -- could be decisive in determining whether the election remains on a trajectory favorable to Obama or shifts back toward too-close-to-call status.
McCain advisers are well aware that the past two weeks have brought a shift in the race, but they say that between now and Election Day, there is plenty of time for the fortunes of the two candidates to change again.
"The first lesson of this campaign, going back to 2007, is not to be panicky or reactive to poll numbers," said McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt. "A few weeks back, we had a clear lead, albeit a narrow one, and there were a lot of people on the Democratic side haranguing the Obama campaign in the sense of panic. We always understood not only would that lead dissipate but bounce back the other way and then bounce back again."
For McCain, the danger is that previously undecided voters will become comfortable that Obama is ready to be president. The longer Obama can hold even a small lead, the more difficult it will be for McCain to reverse it, absent something unexpected happening. McCain's best hope, strategists said, is for the crisis atmosphere around Wall Street and the credit markets to lessen, allowing the campaign debate to focus on other questions as much as the economy. The agreement reached early this morning on Capitol Hill about a Wall Street relief package may help with that.
Schmidt said the campaign will press two arguments as forcefully as possible in the coming days. One is that Obama is not ready to be commander in chief and that, in a time of two wars, "his policies will make the world more dangerous and America less secure." Second, he said, McCain will argue that, in a time of economic crisis, Obama will raise taxes and spending and "will make our economy worse."
Obama signaled yesterday that his focus will be on painting McCain as out of touch on the economy. Appearing at a rally in Greensboro, N.C., Obama ripped into his rival's remarks about the economy during the debate -- but more for what McCain didn't say.
"The truth is, through 90 minutes of debating, John McCain had a lot to say about me, but he had nothing to say about you. He didn't even say the words 'middle class.' Didn't say the words 'working people,' " Obama told a cheering crowd of about 20,000 people on a rainy morning. He later appeared in Fredericksburg, Va., and spoke at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation dinner in Washington. [Story, A14.]
The middle-class omission also is the subject of an Obama television ad that the campaign rolled out yesterday, asserting: "McCain doesn't get it. Barack Obama does."
McCain, who returned to Washington immediately after the debate, remained largely out of sight yesterday. Aides said he was working the phones with congressional leaders, monitoring the pace of negotiations over a financial rescue package that officials hope to have ready for a vote by the beginning of the week. They argued that without his input, the package under consideration earlier last week was doomed to fail.
But strategists said McCain will be challenged to reverse current trends, particularly in a year in which voters are gloomy about the state of the country and are looking for a change in direction after eight years of President Bush's policies.
"What begins to happen is that the margin that's been in place begins to solidify more and more," said Matthew Dowd, who was Bush's chief strategist in 2004 and is now an independent analyst. "There's only two ways this can go," he added. "It will either solidify with an Obama four- to five- point lead, or it will loosen and go back to close and go back and forth."
Both campaigns launched a war of ads and news releases yesterday as each side claimed victory in their first general-election showdown, held at the University of Mississippi.
The McCain campaign e-mailed four "volumes" of reviews about his performance, described by various pundits and editorial writers as "emphatic," "assured" and "authoritative."
Obama aides said the Democratic nominee cleared a major hurdle with undecided voters by projecting confidence, giving crisp answers and standing his ground when pressed by McCain on a range of foreign policy issues, including the fate of Iraq and Afghanistan and the challenges posed by Russia and Iran.
Overnight polls suggested Obama had won, although the samples in one case were tilted toward Democrats.
Obama and McCain will not debate again until Oct. 7, but Palin and Biden will meet in St. Louis on Thursday for their only debate. Palin had an immediate and positive effect on the race when she was chosen, but that has dissipated over the past two weeks. She struggled through an interview with CBS anchor Katie Couric last week, and polls show rising unfavorable ratings, including among independent female voters. As a result, Palin faces a major test in the debate against the more experienced Biden.
The second presidential debate will have a town hall format, which makes combat between the two candidates more difficult. If the race stands essentially as it does today by the time of the third debate on Oct. 15, strategists predict a fierce and confrontational 90 minutes. By then it will become clear whether McCain made the right decision politically to suspend most campaign activities last week and return to Washington to get involved in the financial package negotiations. Aides hope that, if Congress passes a rescue package, McCain's actions will be seen as having contributed to the deal. More important, they hope an agreement will push the economy story off the front pages for a while.
Their hope is to keep things fluid for the next few weeks.
"You've got to get it over with and start having a normal campaign," one McCain adviser said. "I think you can't make any campaign judgments until this is over.
Murray, traveling with the Obama campaign, reported from North Carolina.
LOAD-DATE: September 28, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Scott Olson -- Getty Images; Aides to Sen. John McCain say there is time for their candidate to erase Sen. Barack Obama's lead. But the economic crisis is not helping the Republican.
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The New York Times
September 27, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
I'm Your Pastor, and I Approved This Ad
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 342 words
Call it an act of faith or call it a political ploy, but 33 ministers plan to endorse a presidential candidate from their Sunday pulpits in defiance of federal law.
The ministers and the conservative group organizing them know they are breaking a 54-year-old law barring tax-exempt organizations from using their sheltered status to support a political candidate. They want to be taken to court, quickly, in hopes of overturning it.
The pastors complain that the statute limits their free expression. We take any challenge to free speech very seriously, but this is not a challenge to free speech. This is about protecting the collection plate while using the power of the pulpit to influence elections. Shepherds are entirely free to tell their flocks whom to vote for. They just cannot expect taxpayers to subsidize turning their churches into campaign offices.
The tax code mandate they are challenging has protected the separation of church and state by denying tax deductions for contributions to charitable organizations that engage in secular campaigning.
The ministers haven't announced their preferences, although Senator John McCain is expected to be favored. Senator Barack Obama has blurred church-state lines in promising more subsidies for social programs run by religious-based groups. But Mr. McCain has gone much farther, proclaiming America to be ''a Christian nation.''
A (tax-exempt) consortium of Christian lawyers that presses conservative causes -- the Alliance Defense Fund -- has organized the ministers' protest as Pulpit Freedom Sunday. They argue that the tax code restricts their right to be ''talking to their congregations about biblical issues related to candidates and elections.''
Taxpayers of any faith should see this as an election-year gambit to dash the pillar of church-state separation. Other clergy, mindful of being spiritual not political ministers, have organized to say no thanks to Pulpit Freedom Sunday. We expect the courts and the Internal Revenue Service to say those preachers are in the right.
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The New York Times
September 27, 2008 Saturday
The New York Times on the Web
The Election and the Language of Race
SECTION: Section ; Column 0; Editorial Desk; LETTERS; Pg.
LENGTH: 560 words
To the Editor:
Thank you to Brent Staples for shedding light on the language of race (''Barack Obama, John McCain and the Language of Race,'' Editorial Observer, Sept. 22).
No one has yet called Senator Barack Obama ''uppity,'' but it now appears that the aloofness that is attributed to him may have a similar objective of putting him ''in his place.'' Oh, the power of language!
The polls that refer lately to the preference for John McCain among white working-class men demonstrate that racism is alive and well in this country.
We may be better off to address the issue of race head on rather than pretend that it is not a factor in this election. Mr. Staples points out correctly that Mr. Obama ''seems to understand that he is always an utterance away from a statement -- or a phrase -- that could transform him ... into the archetypical angry black man who scares off the white vote.''
Pity us all, and the rest of the world, for it looks as if we may once again lose the opportunity to be led by a thinking individual.
Helene Salomon Scarsdale, N.Y., Sept.
22, 2008
To the Editor:
Brent Staples's article eloquently and succinctly puts a fine point on the issue: the language of the Republicans in this election reminds us that race is still the ''elephant'' in our nation's living room.
The ghosts of Nixon's ''Southern strategy''; Ronald Reagan's Cadillac-driving ''welfare queen'' and his ''states' rights'' speech in Philadelphia, Miss.; and Bush 41's ''Willie Horton'' ad turn out not to be ghosts after all; they are zombies that just won't die.
In my 60 years as an ''uppity'' black man in America, I have seen our nation do things both good and bad. What saddens me most is the willingness of some to exploit racist fears rather than confront, condemn and disavow all vestiges -- and proponents -- of this constant stain on our history, our nation and our promise for the future.
JonScott Williams Richmond, Va., Sept.
22, 2008
To the Editor:
Brent Staples's Editorial Observer about the language of race sent a chill down my 70-year-old spine.
My two brothers and I were raised in the Deep South (Tallahassee) in the 1940s by a ''Lincoln Republican'' mother from Iowa. She insisted that we address all adults as ''sir'' or ''ma'am'' regardless of race, and she always inquired as to the surname.
On Lincoln's Birthday and Emancipation Proclamation Day (Sept. 22), she drove us in our 1937 Chevrolet out the Thomasville Road to a segregated school or church (''coloreds'' only) to mark our observance.
It is hard to believe that today the party of Lincoln would be guilty of the same misconduct our mother told us was un-American.
John H. Schulte Miami, Sept.
22, 2008
To the Editor:
Brent Staples was brave to bring to our attention the racism inherent in opponents' attempts to characterize Barack Obama as elite and arrogant, and to lampoon his glamour and celebrity.
''Uppity'' is an old, subtle and deeply buried characterization, as he writes, but not one limited to the South. Political campaigns since before the beginning of the Republic have chosen their rhetoric and images shrewdly, with an eye to code. Today's are no different.
Richard H. Kohn Chapel Hill, N.C., Sept.
22, 2008
The writer is a professor of history and peace, war and defense at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
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The Washington Post
September 27, 2008 Saturday
Met 2 Edition
McCain's High Horse Meets Obama's High-Mindedness
BYLINE: Tom Shales
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1025 words
John McCain wore the more presidential tie -- that much can be said for him -- but Barack Obama displayed the more presidential temperament, or the kind of demeanor people presumably would want in a president, when the two candidates met at the University of Mississippi last night for their first debate of the campaign.
Both men seemed well equipped in terms of facts and figures -- especially, as one would expect, dollar figures -- and neither made an outrageous blunder, although McCain did misidentify the new president of Pakistan. More critically, he came across as condescending and even rude to his opponent, a bit of bad behavior especially evident because Obama may have overdone the fair-minded bit in many of his remarks and answers.
Imperiously enough, McCain -- who had threatened not to show up for the debate because of America's financial crisis -- seemed determined to avoid even looking at Obama as the debate went on, although they did shake hands at the beginning and end. Many of McCain's answers were preceded with belittling references to Obama as if he were talking to a college freshman way out of his depth: "I'm afraid Senator Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy," was one typical remark.
Obama supporters must have been displeased, then, to hear their candidate keep agreeing with McCain, a case perhaps of sportsmanlike conduct run amok. Doesn't Obama want to win?
On the matter of congressional earmarks and wasteful spending, Obama began one answer with, "Well, Senator McCain is absolutely right . . ." and later, on an issue related to the Iraq war: "Senator McCain is absolutely right . . ." etc., etc.
After all the nice-guy stuff from Obama, which may have reached self-defeating levels, it's perhaps not surprising that the most, perhaps only, electrifying moment of the debate was when he finally told McCain he was wrong -- three times in quick and effective succession. This was during debate about the origins of the war in Iraq. "You were wrong" about saying the war would be quick and easy, Obama charged, his voice rising. "You were wrong" about finding weapons of mass destruction, he continued. And there was one more "you were wrong" for good measure.
Obama was showing something that his personal appearances have too often lacked: passion. There was strong conviction behind his words, whether one agreed with them or not, and a welcome assertiveness. "You were wrong" was an effectively simple declarative sentence, not bogged down in qualifiers the way some of his sentences tend to be. "We've got to look at bringing that war to a close," he said of Iraq; why not just, "We've got to end that war"?
Although Obama was "crisper" than usual, as one commentator noted after the debate, he still may not have been crisp enough. His oratorical skills when giving speeches in vast venues have been amply demonstrated. But in debates and conversations, when he ad-libs, he sometimes seems to be weighing his answers almost too carefully, defusing his own remarks by diffusing them.
Democrat Paul Begala, one of CNN's army of pundits, criticized both candidates for the way they handled questions on the economy. The whole debate was supposed to deal with foreign policy, but as the economy shuddered and crumbled during the week, it was wisely decided to devote about a third of the debate to that crisis. But as Begala said, a stranger to this planet tuning in the debate wouldn't have known from the candidates' answers and attitudes that America is in the midst of what has been called the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression.
Instead their answers were on the theoretical side, with no real sense of urgency. The folks out there in television land, losing their homes to foreclosure or seeing their retirement nest eggs obliterated, deserved more thoughtful and heartfelt answers.
The debate was moderated by public television's Jim Lehrer, who did a very accomplished job, willing to interrupt or challenge the candidates when they danced around an issue rather than addressing it. His first question was "Where do you stand on the financial recovery plan" now being debated in Washington. Both candidates merely reiterated economic policies from past speeches, with McCain preceding his response with a self-serving salute to Ted Kennedy, who was hospitalized earlier in the day.
Obama began his response with the usual bromide about America being "at a defining moment in our history." Yes yes, but how will we pay the mortgage when the interest rate goes up for the umpteenth time next month?
Lehrer took control. After the meandering palaver from the two men he said pointedly, "Let's go back to my question" and repeated it.
Since all three networks had access to the same basic pool video, some networks tried to dress up the picture with identifying decoration. NBC and CNN both had annoying animated graphics in the lower right-hand corners of the screen, just the thing for people who want to watch letters dance or globes spin around, distracting to everyone else. CNN had mercifully ditched its ticker-tape of fun facts, but replaced it with a chart that supposedly showed reactions from a sample group to the candidates' performances. The chart was hard to read and essentially useless.
CBS armed a test group of viewer-voters with "joy sticks" to measure their responses to various moments of the debate, but this gimmick also proved to be of little help. A CBS reporter interviewed one man sitting in the room; the man said he thought McCain looked "stressed." And that was that. The research measurement was done by Nielsen Media Research, it was pointed out, the same people who rate television shows. That raised the discomforting specter of equating presidential candidates with sitcoms, soap operas and reality junk.
This was reality -- the realest kind of reality -- and the debate was, for the most part, encouragingly civilized and not flawed with frivolous name-calling. As NBC's able Chuck Todd put it, "no lipstick on a pig" nonsense. If McCain had been more civil, and Obama were more combative and fervent, it would have been better still.
LOAD-DATE: September 27, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; Pool Photo By Chip Somodevilla Via Ap; Barack Obama and John McCain shake hands before last night's presidential debate.
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The New York Times
September 26, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Credit Enters A Lockdown
BYLINE: By PETER S. GOODMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; ECONOMIC MEMO; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1331 words
The words coming out of Washington this week about the American financial system have been frightening. But many have raised the possibility that the Bush administration is fear-mongering to gin up support for its $700 billion bailout proposal.
In many corporate offices, in company cafeterias and around dining room tables, however, the reality of tight credit already is limiting daily economic activity.
''Loans are basically frozen due to the credit crisis,'' said Vicki Sanger, who is now leaning on personal credit cards bearing double-digit interest rates to finance the building of roads and sidewalks for her residential real estate development in Fruita, Colo. ''The banks just are not lending.''
With the economy already suffering the strains of plunging housing prices, growing joblessness and the new-found austerity of debt-saturated consumers, many experts fear the fraying of the financial system could pin the nation in distress for years.
Without a mechanism to shed the bad loans on their books, financial institutions may continue to hoard their dollars and starve the economy of capital. Americans would be deprived of financing to buy houses, send children to college and start businesses. That would slow economic activity further, souring more loans, and making banks tighter still. In short, a downward spiral.
Fear of this outcome has become self-fulfilling, prompting a stampede toward safer investments. Investors continued to pile into Treasury bills on Thursday despite rates of interest near zero, making less capital available for businesses and consumers. Stock markets rallied exuberantly for much of Thursday as a bailout deal appeared in hand. Then the deal stalled, leaving the markets vulnerable to a pullback.
''Without trust and confidence, business can't go on, and we can easily fall into a deeper recession and eventually a depression,'' said Andrew Lo, a finance professor at M.I.T.'s Sloan School of Management. ''It would be disastrous to have no plan.''
The Bush administration has hit this message relentlessly. On Capitol Hill, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. warned of a potential financial seizure without a swift bailout. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke -- an academic authority on the Great Depression -- used words generally eschewed by people whose utterances move markets, speaking of a ''grave threat.''
In a prime-time television address Wednesday night, President Bush, who has described the strains on the economy as ''adjustments,'' put it this way: ''Our entire economy is in danger.''
The considerable pushback to the bailout reflects discomfort with the people sounding the alarm. Mr. Paulson, a creature of Wall Street, asked Congress for extraordinary powers to take bad loans off the hands of major financial institutions with a proposal that ran all of three pages. Subprime mortgages have been issued with more paperwork than Mr. Paulson filled out in asking for $700 billion.
''The situation is like that movie trailer where a guy with a deep, scary voice says, 'In a world where credit markets are frozen, where banks refuse to lend to each other at any price, only one man, with one plan can save us,' '' said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute in Washington.
And yet, the more he looked at the data, the more Mr. Bernstein became convinced the financial system really does require some sort of bailout. ''Things are scary,'' he said.
For nonfinancial firms during the first three months of the year, the outstanding balance of so-called commercial paper -- short-term IOUs that businesses rely upon to finance their daily operations -- was growing by more than 10 percent from a year earlier, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Moody'sEconomy.com. From April to June, the balance plunged by more than 9 percent compared with the previous year.
This week, the rate charged by banks for short-term loans to other banks swelled to three percentage points above the most conservative of investments, Treasury bills, with the gap nearly tripling since the beginning of this month. In other words, banks are charging more for even minimal risk, making credit tight.
Suddenly, people who have spent their careers arguing that government is in the way of progress -- that its role must be pared to allow market forces to flourish -- are calling for the biggest government bailout in American history.
''We are in a very serious place,'' said William W. Beach, an economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington. ''There is risk of contagion to the entire economy.''
Even before the stunning events of recent weeks -- as the government took over the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers disintegrated into bankruptcy, and American International Group was saved by an $85 billion government bailout -- credit was tight, sowing fears that the economy would suffer.
The demise of those prominent institutions and anxiety over what could happen next has amplified worries considerably.
''The problem is so big that if somebody doesn't step in, it will cause a panic,'' said Michael Moebs, an economist and chief executive of Moebs Services, an independent research company in Lake Bluff, Ill. ''Things could worsen to the point that we could see double-digit unemployment.''
This week, Mr. Moebs said he heard from two clients, one a bank and the other a credit union in a small city in the Midwest, now in serious trouble: Both are heavily invested in Lehman, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
''One is going to lose about 80 percent of their capital if they can't cash those in, and the other is going to lose about half,'' Mr. Moebs said.
The credit union is located in a city in which the auto industry is a major employer -- an industry now laying off workers. Yet as people try to refinance mortgages to hang on to homes and extend credit cards to pay for gas for their job searches, the local credit union is saying no.
''They have become very restrictive on who they are lending to,'' Mr. Moebs said. ''They can't afford a loss. Their risk quotient is next to zero. You have a financial institution that really can't help out the local people who are having financial difficulties.''
Along the Gulf of Mexico, in Cape Coral, Fla., Michael Pfaff, a mortgage broker, has become accustomed to constant telephone calls from local real estate agents begging for help to save deals in danger of collapsing for lack of finance.
''The underwriters are terrified and they're dragging their feet, and making more excuses not to close loans,'' Mr. Pfaff said. ''Basically, they just don't want the deals.''
Three years ago, when Cape Coral was among the fastest-appreciating real estate markets in the nation, Mr. Pfaff specialized in financing luxury homes with seven-figure price tags. ''Now I'm doing a $32,000 loan on a mobile home,'' he said.
Finance is still there for people with unblemished credit, he said. Mr. Pfaff recently closed a deal for a couple in Indiana that bought a second house in Cape Coral, a waterfront duplex for $300,000. Their credit score was nearly impeccable, and they had a 20 percent down payment, plus income of nearly $8,000 a month.
For people like that, conditions have actually improved since the government took over the mortgage giants. A month ago, Mr. Pfaff could secure 30-year fixed rate mortgages for about 7 percent. On Thursday, he was quoting 6 percent.
But those with less-than-ideal creditare increasingly shut out of the market, Mr. Pfaff said, and there are an awful lot of those people. So-called hard money loans, for those with problematic credit but large down payments, were easy to arrange as recently as last month.
''That money has just dried up,'' Mr. Pfaff said. ''I'm afraid. I'm 54 years old, and I've seen a lot of hyperventilating in my life, but I absolutely believe that this is a very serious issue.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: September 26, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: CHART: How confident are you in their ability to make the right decisions about the economy? Chart shows bar graph for Obama and McCain.
Two Proposals to Guide the Financial Rescue: Early Thursday afternoon, Democratic and Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee told reporters that they had reached an agreement on basic principles of the financial rescue plan, as outlined below:
But John A. Boehner of Ohio, House Republican leader, cautioned later that although he was ''encouraged by the bipartisan progress,'' ''House Republicans have not agreed to any plan at this point.'' Mr. Boehner's working group produced the following recommendations. Chart details Taxpayer information. (pg. A22)
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The New York Times
September 26, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
DUBIOUS CLAIMS IN OBAMA'S ADS
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG and JULIE BOSMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1430 words
DATELINE: ROANOKE, Va.
Two weeks ago, Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign gleefully publicized a spate of news reports about misleading and untruthful statements in the advertisements of his rival, Senator John McCain. Asked by a voter in New Hampshire if he would respond in kind, Mr. Obama said, ''I just have a different philosophy, I'm going to respond with the truth,'' adding, ''I'm not going to start making up lies about John McCain.''
Yet as Mr. McCain's misleading advertisements became fodder on shows like ''The View'' and ''Saturday Night Live,'' Mr. Obama began his own run of advertisements on radio and television that have matched the dubious nature of Mr. McCain's more questionable spots.
A radio advertisement running in Wisconsin and other contested states misleadingly reports that Mr. McCain ''has stood in the way of'' federal financing for stem cell research; Mr. McCain did once oppose such federally supported research but broke with President Bush to consistently support it starting in 2001 (his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, does not support it).
A commercial running here on Thursday morning highlighting Mr. McCain's votes against incentives for alternative energy misleadingly asserts he supports tax breaks for ''one source of energy: oil companies.'' Mr. McCain's proposed corporate tax break would cover all companies, including those developing new sources of power.
A new television advertisement playing in areas with high concentrations of elderly voters and emphasizing Mr. McCain's support for President Bush's failed plan for private Social Security accounts misleadingly implies Mr. McCain supported ''cutting benefits in half'' -- an analysis of Mr. Bush's plan that would have applied to upper-income Americans retiring in the year 2075.
A much criticized Spanish-language television advertisement wrongly links the views of Mr. McCain, who was a champion of the sweeping immigration overhaul pushed by Mr. Bush, to those of Rush Limbaugh, a harsh critic of the approach, and, frequently, of Mr. McCain.
The advertisement implies Mr. Limbaugh is one of Mr. McCain's ''Republican friends,'' and quotes Mr. Limbaugh as calling Mexicans ''stupid and unqualified.'' Mr. Limbaugh has written that his quotes were taken out of context and that he was mocking the views of others.
In all, Mr. Obama has released at least five commercials that have been criticized as misleading or untruthful against Mr. McCain's positions in the past two weeks. Mr. Obama drew complaints from many of the independent fact-checking groups and editorial writers who just two weeks ago were criticizing Mr. McCain for producing a large share of this year's untruthful spots (''Pants on Fire,'' the fact-checking Web site PolitiFact.com wrote of Mr. Obama's advertisement invoking Mr. Limbaugh; ''False!'' FactCheck.org said of his commercial on Social Security.)
Some Democrats expressed concern that Mr. Obama, in stretching the truth in some of his advertisements, was putting at risk the ''above politics'' persona he has tried to cultivate.
''I do think there is a risk,'' said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic strategist. ''The risk is that they seem to be different, that the appeal for Obama is 'it's not the same old politics.' ''
Nevertheless, Mr. Trippi described the advertisements as ''an eye for an eye.''
And other Democrats shrugged off the questionable advertisements, saying they were relieved Mr. Obama was responding to continuing, frequently misleading assaults from Mr. McCain. They did not distinguish between advertisements that are tough on Mr. McCain and those that are misleading.
Some Democrats argued that Mr. Obama had yet to produce spots along the lines of two from Mr. McCain that drew criticism two weeks ago: One that wrongly asserted Mr. Obama supported comprehensive sex education for kindergartners and another, created only for the Internet, that incorrectly asserted that Mr. Obama had been referring to Ms. Palin when he said of Mr. McCain's new message of change, ''You can put lipstick on a pig; it's still a pig.''
''All's fair in love, war and politics,'' said Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist who was Vice President Al Gore's press secretary in 2000. ''Given the fact that the other side has come after him for quite some time, he has every right to fight back, and I think people understand that.''
Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, said the campaign stood by its advertisements.
''Our ads discuss serious differences on critical issues like stem cell research, Social Security and energy policy,'' Mr. Vietor said. ''John McCain's ads are about Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, and have been called some of the most frivolous and dishonest ads in campaign history.''
Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for Mr. McCain, said, ''It's bad enough that Barack Obama fictionalizes his own record, but it is a disgrace that he lies about John McCain's.''
The disputed spots from Mr. Obama coincide with a significantly increased advertising push by his campaign and the Democratic National Committee that has taken a decidedly negative tone in the past few weeks, perhaps reflecting the natural progression of a tight campaign. CMAG, a group that tracks political advertising, said Thursday that the $10 million Mr. Obama had spent over the previous week on advertisements represented a nearly $4 million increase from the week before.
The increased advertising push has been accompanied by a campaign by the Democratic National Committee featuring an emotional advertisement shown on African-American-oriented programs meant to encourage blacks to register to vote. It opens with violent images from the civil rights era of black marchers being attacked with power hoses and the words, ''Thousands died so you could vote,'' the advertisement states. The advertisement was not publicly announced by the party.
Some of the advertisements that have drawn criticism were similarly started without fanfare. Mr. Obama's campaign did not announce it was running its new radio spot that said Mr. McCain ''has stood in the way, he's opposed stem cell research.'' That ad concluded, ''John McCain doesn't understand that medical research benefiting millions shouldn't be held hostage by the political views of a few.''
The radio advertisement correctly asserts that Mr. McCain's running mate, Ms. Palin, is against the use of federal funds for stem cell research. But since 2001, Mr. McCain has consistently supported the financing. Last year, he voted for the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act, which Mr. Bush vetoed, and in 2004 signed a letter to the president with 57 other senators, urging him to change his policy on stem cell research.
The campaign has said Ms. Palin will defer to Mr. McCain on the matter should they win the White House.
As backup for the advertisement's implication that Mr. McCain is against stem cell research financing, Mr. Vietor of the Obama campaign pointed to a recent report in The Los Angeles Times that Mr. McCain had told evangelical leaders he was open to learning more about their concerns, though the article stated, ''McCain did not offer any indication he would change his mind.''
The stem cell advertisement hit the airwaves around the same time Mr. Obama released his Spanish-language commercial about Mr. Limbaugh. Bill Adair, the editor of PolitiFact, the fact-checking Web site of The St. Petersburg Times and Congressional Quarterly, said that until last week, the McCain campaign was more frequently guilty of including the most egregious falsehoods in its advertisements.
But the advertisement with Mr. Limbaugh, he said, prompted PolitiFact to deliver its worst rating, ''Pants on Fire,'' to Mr. Obama for the first time (as opposed to six times for Mr. McCain). The ''Pants on Fire'' rating is defined as, ''not just false, but ridiculously false,'' Mr. Adair said.
''I think the Obama campaign in the last two weeks has been very aggressive with its advertising,'' Mr. Adair said. ''And ads like the stem cell ad and the Spanish-language ad are just not accurate.''
Mr. Obama has been previously challenged over falsehoods or misleading statements in his advertisements. For instance, the campaign has frequently been criticized for implying that Mr. McCain has singled out ''big oil'' as the sole recipient of his broad, corporate tax cut. Mr. Obama does it again in his latest spot, in which the announcer says he ''does support tax breaks for one source of energy: Oil Companies.''
Mr. Vietor said the assertion was technically true.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: An image from an Obama advertisement entitled ''Promise.'' The advertisement contains some misleading statements.
An advertisement from the Democratic National Committee that encourages voter registration by African-American voters.(pg. A18)
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The New York Times
September 26, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Thinking About McCain
BYLINE: By DAVID BROOKS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 25
LENGTH: 793 words
I've been covering John McCain steadily for a decade. A few years ago, I worked on a book, which I foolishly never completed, on the U.S. Senate with McCain as the central character. So when I step back and think of McCain, even in the heat of this campaign, I still think of him first in the real world of governing, not in the show-business world of the election.
I think first of the personal qualities. He was an unfailingly candid man. When other politicians described a meeting, they always ended up the heroes of the story. But McCain would always describe the meeting straight, emphasizing his own failings with more vigor than his accomplishments.
He is, for a politician, a humble man. The most important legacy of his prisoner-of-war days is that he witnessed others behaving more heroically than he did. This experience has given him a basic honesty when appraising himself.
His mood darkened as the Iraq war deteriorated, but his accomplishments mounted. I don't think any senator had as impressive a few years as McCain did during this span of time.
He lobbied relentlessly for a change of strategy in Iraq, holding off the tide that would have had us accept defeat and leave Iraq to its genocide. He negotiated a complicated immigration bill with Ted Kennedy. He helped organize the Gang of 14 and helped save the Senate from polarized Armageddon over judicial nominations.
He voted against opportunist bills like the pork-laden energy package and the prescription drug plan. He led a crusade against Jack Abramoff and the sleaze-meisters in his own party and exposed corrupt Pentagon contracts.
I could fill this column with his accomplishments during this period, and not even mention the insights. At a defense conference in Munich, I saw him diagnose and confront Russian hegemony. Week after week, I saw him dissent from G.O.P. colleagues as their party lost its way.
Some people who cover the campaign seem to have no knowledge of anything but the campaign, but I can't get these events -- which were real and required the constant application of judgment, honor and courage -- out of my head.
Do I wish he was running a different campaign? Yes.
It's not that he has changed his political personality that bothers me. I've come to accept that in this media-circus environment, you simply cannot run for president as a candid, normal person.
Nor is it, primarily, the dishonest ads he is running. My friends in the Obama cheering section get huffy about them, while filtering from their consciousness all the dishonest ads Obama has run -- the demagogic DHL ad, the insulting computer ad, the cynical Rush Limbaugh ad, the misleading Social Security ad and so on. If one candidate has sunk lower than the other at this point, I've lost track.
No, what disappoints me about the McCain campaign is it has no central argument. I had hoped that he would create a grand narrative explaining how the United States is fundamentally unprepared for the 21st century and how McCain's worldview is different.
McCain has not made that sort of all-encompassing argument, so his proposals don't add up to more than the sum of their parts. Without a groundbreaking argument about why he is different, he's had to rely on tactical gimmicks to stay afloat. He has no frame to organize his response when financial and other crises pop up.
He has no overarching argument in part because of his Senate training and the tendency to take issues on one at a time -- in part, because of the foolish decision to run a traditional right-left campaign against Obama and, in part, because McCain has never really resolved the contradiction between the Barry Goldwater and Teddy Roosevelt sides of his worldview. One day he's a small-government Western conservative; the next he's a Bull Moose progressive. The two don't add up -- as we've seen in his uneven reaction to the financial crisis.
Nonetheless, when people try to tell me that the McCain on the campaign trail is the real McCain and the one who came before was fake, I just say, baloney. I saw him. A half-century of evidence is there.
If McCain is elected, he will retain his instinct for the hard challenge. With that Greatest Generation style of his, he will run the least partisan administration in recent times. He is not a sophisticated conceptual thinker, but he is a good judge of character. He is not an organized administrator, but he has become a practiced legislative craftsman. He is, above all -- and this is completely impossible to convey in the midst of a campaign -- a serious man prone to serious things.
Amid the stupidity of this season, it seemed worth stepping back to recall the fundamentals -- about McCain today and Obama on some other day in the near future.
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The Washington Post
September 26, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Tonight's Debate Still in Limbo As Blame Passes Back and Forth
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear and Jonathan Weisman; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1376 words
The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama, scheduled for tonight, remained in limbo last night after the presidential candidates left a White House meeting without a deal on a $700 billion economic rescue plan.
Democrats immediately blamed McCain for disrupting the effort at compromise, saying his decision to suspend his campaign and return to Washington shifted the klieg lights of the White House contest to the tense and delicate congressional negotiations.
Those discussions, which had appeared promising early in the day, culminated in the late-afternoon meeting held by President Bush. But instead of producing a joint statement of success, McCain and Obama slipped out of a gathering that those present described as a contentious and unproductive session.
"What this looked like to me was a rescue plan for John McCain for two hours," said an angry Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), who had all but declared the deal done earlier in the day. "To be distracted for two to three hours for political theater doesn't help."
In interviews after the meeting, Obama pointed a finger at his rival for the faltering talks, saying on CNN that "when you start injecting presidential politics into delicate negotiations, you can actually inject more problems, rather than less."
His spokesman Bill Burton was more blunt, accusing McCain of turning "a national crisis into an occasion to promote his campaign. It's become just another political stunt, aimed more at shoring up the senator's political fortunes than the nation's economy."
In response, senior McCain adviser Steve Schmidt accused Obama of playing politics, saying the negotiations had been far from resolved and challenging the Democratic nominee to "publish the list of members of Congress who were going to vote for this. Because in reality, there is not a list of a majority of Democrats and Republicans who are willing to vote for it."
McCain said he is "hopeful" that a deal can be reached soon, despite opposition from many House Republicans who have consistently balked at the bailout cost and produced a far different proposal in the 11th hour yesterday.
"There are a variety of concerns, I think a lot of them have been satisfied," McCain said on ABC's "World News Tonight" after the meeting. "And I believe and I'm hopeful that we can satisfy all of them and move forward very quickly. They are aware of the urgency."
Obama and McCain both held out hope that they could still meet in Oxford, Miss., tonight for their long-scheduled first debate as they settled in to overnight in Washington. "I think he knows that I'm going to be there," Obama said in his own appearance on ABC. But McCain's campaign said that no travel decisions had been made as of last night.
"I understand how important this debate is and I am hopeful," McCain said on ABC News.
The independent Commission on Presidential Debates said yesterday that it is "moving forward" with its plans for the face-off.
The White House meeting was the result of McCain's startling announcement Wednesday that he would cease campaigning and return to Washington, urging Bush to convene a summit to address the financial crisis. Bush did so, informing the nation in an address Wednesday night, and inviting Obama and McCain to attend.
Yesterday's photo opportunity amounted to Bush's first public appearance with McCain since May, when the two briefly shook hands on a tarmac at the Phoenix airport. The Republican nominee has sought to distance himself from the president, whose approval rating has touched new lows in recent polling, and campaign aides have said they have no plans to ask Bush to appear on the campaign trail.
McCain, Obama, administration officials and congressional leaders had hoped to emerge together from the West Wing to deliver a forceful joint statement that would at least show a display of unity behind the principle of a massive federal intervention in the financial markets.
McCain's "Straight Talk Air" landed at Reagan National Airport just after noon, and his motorcade headed toward the Senate. But even before his charter plane took off from Newark, senior Democrats and Republicans at the Capitol were already announcing that a deal in principle had been reached.
That declaration turned out to be premature, as McCain's colleagues in the House objected to the ideas presented and arrived at the meeting adamant that they had never signed on to a deal.
At the White House, the gathering turned contentious when House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) brought up a new set of principles that conservative House Republicans had been laid out earlier in the day.
Boehner's move was received poorly by Obama and the other Democrats, who quickly pressed McCain to say whether he supported Boehner's position, according to a detailed account of the meeting. McCain declined to commit, one source said.
For much of the day, McCain shuttled between meetings and his Senate office, but rarely came close to the Capitol suites and committee rooms where the negotiations were taking place. He had returned to his Crystal City condominium by 6 p.m., where aides said he continued to work the phones in support of the deal.
Earlier, McCain had emerged from his office in the Russell Senate Office Building around noon to a crush of reporters, saying nothing as he made his way to Boehner's office. In tow were a trio of his closest allies, Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), as well as top campaign aides Rick Davis and Mark Salter.
Boehner and McCain discussed the bailout plan, but Republican leadership aides described the conversation as somewhat surreal. Neither man was familiar with the details of the proposal being pressed by House conservatives, and up to the moment they departed for the White House yesterday afternoon, neither had seen any description beyond news reports.
At 1:25 p.m., McCain left Boehner's office through a back door, walking across the Capitol's rotunda to the applause of tourists. Graham conceded the group knew little about the plan the nominee had come to Washington to try to shape.
McCain ducked into the ornate Mansfield Room on the Senate side of the Capitol for lunch with colleagues. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, his chief economic adviser, met separately with the House Republicans' top four leaders. But aides said Holtz-Eakin did little of the talking. Instead, he was told in no uncertain terms that the deal touted in the morning had next to no support among the House Republican rank-and-file.
Despite the GOP nominee's pledge to suspend electioneering, the presidential campaign continued yesterday.
Democrats attacked the McCain campaign for declaring what they called a false truce, pointing to the television appearances of McCain campaign domestic policy adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer, who has been attacking Obama as taking undue credit for crisis management and legislative deal-making.
"This is maybe perhaps part of the pattern that we've seen before where Senator Obama would claim that the housing bill came out of his committee -- and he didn't even sit on the committee," she told Fox News.
As promised, aides said McCain's campaign ads were ordered off the air yesterday, though many remained on the air as stations struggled to comply with the last-minute decision.
"It is not a flip-the-switch kind of proposition," said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending. "McCain is doing everything they can in their power to take these spots down. It's not like canceling a pizza."
Schmidt accused Obama of "swooping in" to buy up the advertising time that McCain had relinquished. Without offering proof, he said the Democrat was acting in a "predatory fashion" at a time when McCain sought to take a step back from politics.
"It is an example, once again, of Senator McCain putting his country first, whereas Senator Obama puts Senator Obama first, which is an essential contrast," he t said.
Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said of the McCain campaign: "They haven't suspended the rest of their campaign, so it's not surprising they haven't suspended their lies, either."
Staff writers Robert G. Kaiser, Paul Kane, Lori Montgomery and Dan Eggen contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: September 26, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Ricky Carioti -- The Washington Post; Sen. John McCain, with Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, arrives on Capitol Hill to discuss the financial crisis. He and rival Barack Obama left the White House meeting with no deal on a $700 billion economic rescue plan.
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The Washington Post
September 26, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Drama King to the Rescue
BYLINE: Eugene Robinson
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A23
LENGTH: 752 words
John McCain is rapidly making his temperament an inescapable issue in the presidential campaign. Does the nation really want so much drama in the White House?
McCain's performance in recent days has been, to put it charitably, erratic. In an attempt to show leadership on the financial crisis, he has called Americans into ranks -- long after hostilities began. Meanwhile, back in much-reviled Washington, the generals with cooler heads and a clearer picture of the battlefield are doing their jobs, minus all the histrionics.
Thus far, an objective observer would have to say that Congress has behaved well in the days since Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered a three-page ransom note that said, and I paraphrase, "Give me $700 billion, or I'd hate to see anything bad happen to that nice economy of yours."
Our elected representatives took seriously the urgency of the crisis. They did not fall into partisan bickering. A rough consensus began to emerge: It is important to act expeditiously but not to panic. It is unwise to give this administration -- or any administration -- a blank check with absolutely no oversight, as Paulson had sought. Paulson, the White House or somebody should explain why this plan will work and why some other plan wouldn't work better. And the corporate executives who put their companies at risk and then turn to the government for a bailout should not be rewarded with multimillion-dollar compensation packages subsidized by the taxpayers.
Negotiations between a Democratic Congress and a Republican administration on these and other points seemed to be proceeding at lightning speed, given the usual pace of such things in Washington. But then, for reasons known only to himself, in charged McCain to rescue the unimperiled. Said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who has been the lead negotiator for the Democratic majority in the House: "Now that we are on the verge of making a deal, John McCain airdrops himself in to help us make a deal."
At face value, McCain's sudden "suspension" of his campaign and his call to delay the first presidential debate can be seen as pure politics. Lately, McCain has been sliding in the polls, and Barack Obama has been rising. The Wall Street crisis markedly accelerated these trends. Late September is not the time to let your opponent widen his lead.
Changing the subject, which the McCain people have raised to an art form, wasn't an option this time -- the public is hardly in the mood for another Paris Hilton ad -- so the campaign had to try to somehow get out in front of the crisis. Given McCain's initial assessment that the fundamentals of the economy are strong, that wasn't going to be easy.
The solution was to try to make it look as if McCain were leading the heroic effort to save the American way of life. To do this, he had to portray the negotiations over a rescue plan -- which had been making orderly progress -- as stalled and in shambles. "We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved," McCain said, calling on everyone to "temporarily set politics aside."
But in trying to put himself at center stage, McCain managed to insert politics into the situation. The first issue all week on which congressional Democrats and Republicans split along party lines was whether McCain's noisy intervention demonstrated boldness or bluster.
The surest way to derail any prospect of a timely rescue plan would be to have Obama and McCain get involved in the nit and the grit of the negotiations. The reason is obvious: The two major-party presidential candidates would never really abandon the campaign with less than six weeks left before the election. They'd just be shifting it to a venue where it could do maximum damage. The anodyne joint statement from the two campaigns Wednesday highlighting the urgency of the situation was about the most constructive thing Obama and McCain could do, next to staying the hell out of the way.
McCain succeeded in focusing attention on himself, but not necessarily in a good way. Voters may see this not as an illustration of brave leadership but as another example of McCain's "ready, fire, aim" approach to dealing with any crisis. Putting himself at the center of events -- making any situation all about him -- is more than a political tactic for McCain. It's his nature, and I wonder if most Americans won't be unnerved at the prospect of electing a president who's always so ready for his close-up.
eugenerobinson@washpost.com
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September 26, 2008 Friday 10:42 AM EST
Deal or No Deal?
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2535 words
HIGHLIGHT: I knew McCain's let's-skip-the-debate maneuver wasn't drawing applause in some precincts on the right when I heard Laura Ingraham tell her radio audience that this was a "huge mistake," "gimmicky," and "the worst thing he could have done."
I knew McCain's let's-skip-the-debate maneuver wasn't drawing applause in some precincts on the right when I heard Laura Ingraham tell her radio audience that this was a "huge mistake," "gimmicky," and "the worst thing he could have done."
It was what passes for high drama in Washington -- lawmakers shuttling in and out of meetings, "Breaking News" banners on cable, speculation about whether the deal would get done. Journalists were primarily interested in a) could McCain, Obama, Bush and Paulson rescue the economy from implosion and b) will there be a debate tonight. And not necessarily in that order.
Later in this column: some surprising numbers about the media coverage of Sarah Palin. But first: If McCain's gambit was designed to show him putting politics aside and riding to the rescue to save the economy, it fell flat. Especially since he found time to give a speech at the Clinton Global Initiative and do a round of network-anchor interviews while at least some of his attack ads continued to air. And hopeful noises about a bipartisan deal on the Hill were replaced by squabbling after the White House meeting, when House Repubs unveiled an alternative plan with no public money, ticking off the Dems. So much for McCain's shuttle diplomacy.
At this writing, Mississippi remains up in the air.
"With no done deal on the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, John McCain and Barack Obama last night intensified their extraordinary staredown over whether to hold their first presidential debate tonight," the Boston Globe reports.
"Senator John McCain had intended to ride back into Washington on Thursday as a leader who had put aside presidential politics to help broker a solution to the financial crisis. Instead he found himself in the midst of a remarkable partisan showdown, lacking a clear public message for how to bring it to an end," the NYT says.
Not all conservatives razzed McCain for threatening to pull out of Mississippi. Bill Kristol loves the idea:
"The rescue package that was so poorly crafted and defended by the Bush administration seemed to be sliding toward defeat. The presidential candidates were on the sidelines, carping and opining and commenting. But one of them, John McCain, intervened suddenly and boldly, taking a risk in order to change the situation, and to rearrange the landscape.
"Of course his motives were partly election-related. But 'the interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place.' If candidate McCain, for whatever mixed motives, ends up acting in a way that results in a deal that is viewed as better than the original proposal, and that seems to stabilize the markets and avert a meltdown -- he'll benefit politically, and he deserves to. For McCain will have acted presidentially in the campaign -- which some voters, quite reasonably, will think speaks to his qualifications to be president.
"As for the question of Friday night's debate, which some in the media seem to think more important than saving the financial system -- if the negotiations are still going on in D.C., McCain should offer to send Palin to debate Obama! Or he can take a break from the meetings, fly down at the last minute himself, and turn a boring foreign policy debate, in which he and Obama would repeat well-rehearsed arguments, into a discussion about leadership and decisiveness. And if the negotiations are clearly on a path to success, then McCain can say he can now afford to leave D.C., fly down, and the debate would become a victory lap for McCain."
Oh, come on. The debates are just some fetish for media blabbermouths? I was under the impression that 50 million or more Americans wanted to see these two candidates side by side, talking about this issue and others, so they could make an informed decision. Bailouts are important. So is democracy.
On the liberal side, Josh Marshall views it as a firing offense:
"Look, if you were living in the real world, if you were some hotshot young executive at a Fortune 500 company trying to rise in the ranks, and you pulled some whacked crap like this, it would probably get you blackballed permanently. People would think you were either deeply unreliable or maybe just had a screw loose. And yet here he is -- is he kidding? He can't debate Barack Obama because he's got to go to Washington and save the economy? It's like the biggest 'dog ate my homework' in history."
Washington Monthly's Steve Benen likens McCain to a Las Vegas high-roller:
"McCain seeks the presidency and gambles in largely the same way -- taking ridiculous risks without regard for consequence. Wednesday's bizarre announcement about 'suspending' the campaign obviously didn't make any sense -- McCain isn't on the Banking Committee, doesn't have any constructive role to play, and has no reason to leave the campaign trail -- but irresponsible risk-takers don't much care about good judgment. They just want to go all in and let it ride.
"We saw this dangerous impulse problem last month when McCain made the ridiculous decision to add Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket, and we clearly saw it again Wednesday."
Dick Polman reads the Arizona senator's mind:
"I want to cut and run from the presidential debate. I wonder if I can get away with this. Or, failing that, I wonder if they'll let me bring Gov. Palin on stage to stand beside me at the lectern. The crowds seem to like her . . . No wait, I have a better idea. There's no way Palin can be adequately prepped for her scheduled debate next Thursday; her learning curve is way too steep. So I'm simply gonna suggest that we reschedule the first presidential debate for next Thursday -- and that way I can keep her under wraps until whenever. If the press whines about all this, I'll just remind everyone that I always put country first."
Now for a new study, unveiled here for the first time, that counters the impression the media have been kicking the stuffing out of Sarah Palin. The Center for Media and Public Affairs says Palin got better coverage than Obama and McCain from Aug. 23 to Sept. 12 -- at least on the three network newscasts and Fox's "Special Report." On the ABC, CBS and NBC programs, 74 percent of the evaluations of Palin were positive, as were 60 percent on the first half of Brit Hume's show (the study evaluated only the first, news-oriented half of Humes's show).
CBS's Chip Reid, for instance, reported that Palin "has earned a reputation in Alaska as a tough and fearless reformer."
By contrast, McCain's coverage was 40 percent positive on the nets and 55 percent positive on the Fox show. Obama stories were 56 percent positive on the networks and just 29 percent positive on Fox. That means, according to the center, that McCain's coverage was nearly twice as positive as Obama's on "Special Report."
During that period, Palin was the subject of 77 network stories, McCain 71 and Obama 39. Joe Biden: five.
Here's my report on part two of the Katie interview. Americablog's John Aravosis is popping a few veins over Palin:
"John McCain is willing to risk the stewardship of our country, should he die in office, to a person who is unqualified and untested, and who has already shown outward signs of being something of an idiot. Nothing is less honorable, less heroic, than that. And McCain's staff made clear to Howie Kurtz that it wasn't going to change.
" ' I know the media is throwing a temper tantrum about this,' [McCain spokesman Michael] Goldfarb said. But, he said, 'she was so beat up the first week when she came on and this campaign has had fraught relations with the media ever since. There's just not a tremendous amount of concern. The campaign is resolved not to allow the media to dictate her schedule. . . . This is mainly an inside-the-Beltway issue.'
"So vetting our possible future president, testing whether she even has a brain, let alone is qualified to lead America during war time and economic crisis, is 'an inside-the-Beltway issue.' Thus is the arrogance of the self-defined hero."
After watching the first part of the Couric interview, Salon's Glenn Greenwald can hardly believe it:
"I'll be honest: watching this, I actually felt sorry for Sarah Palin.
"I still think Palin is probably perfectly smart. And in this age of dynastic and nepotistic political power centers in both parties, I admire the fact that she created her political career out of nothing . . .
"But Sarah Palin's performance in the tiny vignettes of unscripted dialogue in which we've been allowed to see her has been nothing short of frightening -- really, as I said, pity-inducing. And I say that as someone who has thought from the start that the criticisms of her abilities -- as opposed to her ideology -- were much too extreme. One of two things is absolutely clear at this point: she is either (a) completely ignorant about the most basic political issues -- a vacant, ill-informed, incurious know-nothing, or (b) aggressively concealing her actual beliefs about these matters because she's petrified of deviating from the simple-minded campaign talking points she's been fed and/or because her actual beliefs are so politically unpalatable, even when taking into account the right-wing extremism that is permitted, even rewarded, in our mainstream. I'm not really sure which is worse, but it doesn't really matter, because with 40 days left before the election, both options are heinous."
Conservative Dallas Morning News columnist Rod Dreher, who declared after her convention speech that "this Iron Lady is not about to quail before the judgment of her would-be betters," is now aghast:
"Palin is mediocre, again, regurgitating talking points mechanically, not thinking. Palin's just babbling. She makes George W. Bush sound like Cicero . . . I am well and truly embarrassed for her. I think she's a good woman who might well be a great governor of Alaska. But good grief, just watch this train wreck."
In what may be the sleaziest ad of the season, Democracy for America is showing closeups of McCain's scarred face while two doctors say, "Melanoma is the deadliest of skin cancers and the chances of survival if you have melanoma spread through a five-year period are very, very slim." Will Obama and his allies denounce it?
And in other Palin news, the WP reports: "Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has made a crackdown on gift-giving to state officials a centerpiece of her ethics reform agenda, has accepted gifts valued at $25,367 from industry executives, municipalities and a cultural center whose board includes officials from some of the largest mining interests in the state, a review of state records shows."
Remember when some of us thought this campaign would be different? Politico's John Harris and Jim VandeHei offer reasons "why American politics is stuck in a rut":
" Media madness. Reporters complain about the lack of spontaneity in politics. Then we punish spontaneity by ensuring that any impolitic comment gets played and replayed, often simplified and distorted in each replaying--usually accompanied with disapproving analysis about a candidate's lack of discipline and inability to stay on message. The lack of press access to both candidates this fall is frustrating. But the truth is McCain would be foolish to indulge in the kind of free-flowing, free-associating conversations that won such notice in 2000.
"Obama's natural instincts are to tightly control his image and words, which works nicely in this media environment. An unscripted campaign would be more interesting and more useful to voters, but it would require two unlikely ingredients: Candidates self-confident enough to throw out the script, and a news media that would devote as much attention to ideas as to gaffes . . .
" Conventional politics works. This is the ugly truth of politics: the predictable tactics of modern campaigns are often brutally effective. Both candidates promised to run cleaner campaigns."
The chatter has died down since Obama blipped up in the polls, but Jonah Goldberg objects to a race-based analysis that's been making the rounds:
"The news media have been shamefully stoking the idea that the only way Barack Obama could possibly lose the presidential election is if American racists have their way. Indeed, the fact that Obama isn't leading in polls by a wide margin 'doesn't make sense . . . unless it's race,' says CNN's Jack Cafferty. Slate's Jacob Weisberg says Obama is losing among older white voters because of the 'color of his skin.'
"Many journalists are so committed to the racism-explains-everything line they are labeling any effective anti-Obama ad as an attempt by John McCain to 'viciously exacerbate' America's 'race-fueled angst,' in the words of one New York magazine writer. For example, a McCain ad noted that Franklin Raines, the Clinton-appointed former head of Fannie Mae who helped bring about the current Wall Street meltdown, advised the Obama campaign. Time's Karen Tumulty gasped that because Raines is black, McCain is playing the race card . . .
"According to critics, McCain's 'celebrity' ads featuring Paris Hilton and Britney Spears were nothing but tawdry race-baiting because they subliminally played on white America's fear of black men violating the delicate flowers of white American womanhood. You'd think a cognitive warning bell would have gone off the moment anyone started suggesting that Paris Hilton and Britney Spears are icons of chastity.
"This spectacle is grotesque. It reveals how little the supposedly objective press corps thinks of the American people -- and how highly they think of themselves . . . and Obama. Obama's lack of experience, his doctrinaire liberalism, his record, his known associations with Weatherman radical William Ayers and the hate-mongering Rev. Jeremiah Wright: These cannot possibly be legitimate motivations to vote against Obama, in this view."
Yet another issue I never imagined becoming part of the presidential campaign: witchcraft.
"A grainy YouTube video surfaced Wednesday showing Sarah Palin being blessed in her hometown church three years ago by a Kenyan pastor who prayed for her protection from 'witchcraft' as she prepared to seek higher office.
"The video shows Palin standing before Bishop Thomas Muthee in the pulpit of the Wasilla Assembly of God church, holding her hands open as he asked Jesus Christ to keep her safe from 'every form of witchcraft.'
" 'Come on, talk to God about this woman. We declare, save her from Satan,' Muthee said as two attendants placed their hands on Palin's shoulders. 'Make her way my God. Bring finances her way even for the campaign in the name of Jesus . . . Use her to turn this nation the other way around.' "
I'm anxiously waiting for reporters to find out Joe Biden's position on witchcraft.
An update on a woman I wrote about whose romantic e-mails to a school official she was covering, Alberto Carvalho, hit the Miami press:
"A former Miami Herald education reporter implicated in a romantic relationship with a top Miami-Dade schools official has resigned from her post at The Boston Globe, according to a Globe spokesman. 'Tania deLuzuriaga has resigned to pursue other opportunities,' said Bob Powers."
Still no comment from deLuzuriaga; she's been less available than Sarah Palin.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 26, 2008 Friday 10:00 AM EST
Broder on Politics
BYLINE: David S. Broder, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4009 words
HIGHLIGHT: Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and Washington Post columnist David S. Broder was online Friday, Aug. 26 at 10 a.m. ET to answer your questions about the world of politics, from the latest maneuverings on the campaign trail to developments in the White House.
Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and Washington Post columnist David S. Broder was online Friday, Aug. 26 at 10 a.m. ET to answer your questions about the world of politics, from the latest maneuverings on the campaign trail to developments in the White House.
Broder has written extensively about primaries, elections, special interests and the business of politics. His books include "Democracy Derailed: The Initiative Movement & the Power of Money," "Behind the Front Page: A Candid Look at How the News Is Made" and "The System: The American Way of Politics at the Breaking Point."
The transcript follows.
Archive: David Broder discussion transcripts
____________________
Buffalo, N.Y.: The roller coaster this week got me thinking: If we assume the McCain/Palin ticket loses in November, will Palin become the de facto head of the Republican Party? It seems like her selection is a tremendous boost for the social conservative wing of the Republican Party, and she certainly appears to be a polarizing influence on the party itself. What would her emergence as a major player mean to the future of the party?
David S. Broder: Good morning, everyone. What a moment! I hope we don't have more calamities during the next hour togehter.
The question about Governor Palin is intriguing, but I don't think we can judge much until we see how shefares in this campaign. In any case, under the circumstances you describe, her role as a potential party leader would almost certainly be challenged by some of those who contested the 2008 nomination with Senator McCain--Mitt6 Romney, Mike Huckabee and perhaps others.
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Greensburg, Pa.: I'm amazed that executive pay continues to be a stumbling block in the bailout. Is there really no one in the United States with a high degree of business acumen who would step up to lead a troubled business during this time just because it's the right thing to do, without a guarantee of making more money than God? Has it really come to this? Bush talks a lot about patriotism -- shouldn't he be calling on it now from the business sector?
David S. Broder: Good point. But this president has ;not called on anyone except the troops and their families for sacrifice.
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Prescott, Ariz.: The House Republicans and McCain are acting in a deeply unserious and partisan fashion. It must kill you, knowing how much you favor bipartisanship over pretty much everything else. How badly are you going to chastize them on Sunday?
David S. Broder: I have not written my Sunday column yet, but if the impasse contiinues, I will certainly try to put the blame where it fits.
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Ann Arbor, Mich.: Thanks for chatting in this busy season for you and all on The Post. Short phrases and misleading commercials have been the rule in this presidential race, despite the promises from both sides. Do you think there are any forces that might change strategies like this in future elections? It would be wonderful if candidates went back to talking with the press, answering questions rather than sparring through surrogates, and being straightforward.
David S. Broder: Amen. I share your frustration with the tawdry nature of this campaign. As you know, I thought McCain's offer of joint town meetings promised a better course, but now things have descended to insults and cheap shots. I once suggested that the newspapers boycott campaigns unless and untiil candidates agreed to regular press conferences, but that is not practical either, so I am stymied on how we change this dynamic.
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Asheville, N.C.: I see a lot of commentary that Main Street needs to recognize its role in this mess. For a lot of us out here, this isn't about populism -- rich people versus average people. It's about values -- people who live within their means versus people (and a government) that refuse to. Combine that with an absolute lack of trust of politicians of all stripes, and so many bills are coming due at once that it makes my head spin. That's a long preamble for this question -- if John McCain really wants to help, why can't tonight's debate be turned into a national discussion on the bailout plan? Isn't building popular support for a plan -- any plan -- more critical than D.C. backroom echo chambers?
David S. Broder: You said a moutful. It would be far better to have this discussion as scheduled than to leave people wondering what the next president will do about this mess.
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Atlanta: Mr. Broder, is this bailout becoming just another political football? If so, that would be remarkable, and truly sad for our country. Could you share your unvarnished thoughts on the matter? Thank you.
David S. Broder: I am no economist, but I take the warnings from the Treasury secretary and the Federal Reserve chief very seriously. This is a time where action of some kind is better than inaction, even if corrective steps must be taken later. I hope Congress--and the House Republicans in particular--will deal with realities.
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Anonymous: The House Republican proposal contains a suspension of the capital gains tax for two years, which they claim will help ensure participation in the "rescue" plan. Will they be able to pull off appearing as acting for Main Street when in reality they are protecting the wealthy?
David S. Broder: I doubgt that that kind of fundamental change in the taxc xystem will be part of any rescue plan.
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Re: Town Meetings: You fell hard for the McCain excuse that it was Obama's decision to opt out of town halls that justified McCain's nasty, inaccurate ad campaign against Obama. Are you ready to buy his new line using the town halls as an excuse to skip the debate as well?
David S. Broder: No, that is not my position. I thought and think that the town meetings were a wortwhile innovation. I do not think that their rejection justifies false and misleading ads.
_______________________
Seattle, home of Washington Mutual: Does yet another bank failure mean that McCain has to find another excuse to avoid a debate, or will he get a Bush Bounce after skipping the debate and insulting Americans who know that debates occurred during the Civil War, Vietnam and both World Wars?
washingtonpost.com: U.S. Forces WaMu Sale As Bank Sinks (Post, Sept. 26)
David S. Broder: I want the debates to go foreward, but I have to question your history. The first presidential debates occured in 1960.
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Columbia, N.C.: Are members of Congress who are now opposing the economic rescue plan sufficiently knowledgeable about the ramifications of not acting, or are they viewing the situation naively?
David S. Broder: I think they are responding to what they take to be publ8ic opinion at home. As with the immigration bill and some other issues, the talk radio-populist reaction to this proposal is quick, loud and emotional--and the House Republicans are particularly prone to give it great weight.
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Hampton Cove, Ala.: This is a quote from Barney Frank in 2003: "These two entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not facing any kind of financial crisis. ... The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing." Why in the world would we allow this fool to be in charge of a $700 billion bailout?
David S. Broder: I don't think Barney Frank would be in charge of the bailout. He is one of several congressmen trying to figure out how to get out of this mess.
_______________________
Anonymous: Palin's choice as vice president invigorated a part of the Republican Party, but what effect has it had on the party as a whole? Sarah Palin, one heartbeat away?
David S. Broder: As I said earlier, I don't think we can judge Gov. Palin's impact until we see her in more open, excposed situations, rather than the sheltered life she has led so far on the campaign trail.
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: Did you ever think that in an election year you'd see the Democrats actaully siding with the Bush White House, or the Republicans trying to block Bush legislation? What does this show about each party and putting aside differences in order to better the country?
David S. Broder: As I've said in earlier answeers, I think the burden is now very much on House Republicans to step up to the challenge of this almost unprecedented financial crisis.
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Washington: I know I'm in the minority on this, but honestly, I am perfectly happy to have the first debate moved a few days so that both presidential candidates can participate in hammering out a plan that we will have to live with for decades to come. Given the magnitude of the dollars and the potential effect on the economy, I can't think of a better use of their time and energy. If fact, I might not watch the debate if they hold it tonight, because I would have lost respect for both candidates if they put getting elected ahead of determining how to save our economy.
David S. Broder: It would not be terrible, in my view, to postpone the first debate for a few days, byt the practical problems in a postponement are serious. What happens to Sunday night and Monday night football? I do think it important for the country to have this long exposure to the candidates answering thoughtful questions.
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Scotia, N.Y.: Was reading "The Boys on the Bus," from back in the '70s, and you are quoted back then as being so disgusted with the artificial manner in which Nixon ran his campaign that you quit covering it. The integrity of our elections, in this view, was at stake, because there was no genuine expression of views by the candidate in a nonmanaged setting -- just made-for-television productions in front of hand-picked participants. You know, it doesn't look like things have gotten any better ... and there were no 529s, partisan cable shows or 30-second attack ads back then. I'd say it's far worse. You disagree?
David S. Broder: No, I don't disagree. The one improvement has been the return of presidential debates, which Nixon refused. And now those debates are in jeopardy.
_______________________
Phnom Penh, Cambodia: If Senator McCain is busy in Washington, has it been suggested that he could send Vice Presidential Candidate Palin to the TV debate with Sen. Obama? If not, why not? If elected, she has to be ready stand in for the president at any time.
David S. Broder: That thought crossed my mind, as well. But I doubt that the McCain camp would agree.
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Pittsburgh: It's really hard to trust anyone in this debacle. About 80 percent of us went along with the idea that war in Iraq would be quick and easy. Now Congress is flooded with calls from irate constituents who don't want a bailout. I'm not happy about it either, but I'd rather these decisions be made on some rational basis. Who do you see as the most knowledgeble among our leaders in the House and Senate?
David S. Broder: I think the senior Democrats and Republicans on the Banking Committees of the Senate and House have been working conscientiously on this. I have less confidence in the party leaders on both sides of the Capitol.
_______________________
Candidates hammering out a solution?: Are either Sen. McCain or Sen. Obama on the relevant committee? Was it significant that the Obama campaign sent a Senate staffer with the candidate while the McCain camp sent a campaign operative to Washington?
David S. Broder: Neither senator is on the relevant committees. I don't know the significance of the accompanying aides.
_______________________
Glen Allen, Va.: David, you're The Man! So, help me here, please. I'm listening to people like Sens. Shelby, Graham and Hatch, and they are against The Paulson Plan. The plan, as I understand it, is that three-page ditty with no oversight, accountability, reciprocity, etc. That's fine, everyone objects to that! But I thought we were well past this point. Even Bush's speech covered the elements that everyone had issues with. And the framework yesterday afternoon also covered these issues. So, what are the Republicans objecting to? What alternatives are they offering? Or are they still back at square one, objecting to a bailout in the first place? Enlighten us, please.
David S. Broder: As I said in response to an earlier question, the House Republicans appear to be responding to the populist pressure from home objecting to a bailout of Wall Street. I have not seen enough substantive discussion of their proposed alternative to be able to judge whether it is practical, but Paulson and Co. apparently do not think so.
_______________________
Stuart, Fla.: I seem to get an inordinate number of calls from political and other pollsters -- two in the past two weeks. Is this logical under the supposed random selection, or is there a list of people they keep polling?
David S. Broder: No, there is not such a "target" list. But living in Florida, the classic swing state, probably means that you are being poolled often by many independent greoups.
_______________________
South Riding, Va.: Why don't U.S. senators and congressmen see themselves as people who can bring leadership and change to Washington? From the earliest days of the primaries, there was talk about Washington needing new leaders and someone who could bring change; the people talking were already in Washington, and in my opinion in a position where they could show that they have what it takes to lead their party and to strike agreements that cross the aisle. For some reason, they all thought that the U.S. only had room for one leader, in the Oval Office.
I don't know that I completely support John McCain and all that he stands for, but I do respect the fact that he was willing to go back to Washington and do his job and work to find a solution to the current problem. In my mind, that is what leaders do -- solve problems, not just talk about problems that need to be solved. Why couldn't Obama, Clinton, McCain and the others do this in a non-election year? I challenge all of our representatives to step up to the plate and be true leaders. Don't worry about party politics -- work to find the best short- and long-term solution to our problems.
David S. Broder: I agree. I would say this: As critical as I have been of Congress, it is only fair to note that the "Gang of 14" senators did avert an institutional crisis over judicial filibusters and the "Gang of 10" senators is trying to frame a constructive approach to energy legislation. And the negotiations this past week by members of Congress and the Treasury did narrow the differences on the bailout plan
_______________________
Bethesda, Md.: I feel like there has not been enough coverage of the crazy, astromonic compensation that the people running these banks made the last couple of years. Paulson walked away with $163 million for his last year at Goldmans. That blows me away.
David S. Broder: I agree. But that is an issue for another day. It should not block action needed to avert a financial meltdown./
_______________________
Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. As I understand it, over the last few days, John McCain has been calling for more regulations in the financial industry. But now, the House Republican package involves deregulation, and McCain is backing that proposal. Is that a correct understanding? If so, how does Sen. McCain explain his change of position?
David S. Broder: I am not at all clear on the regulatory aspects oft the House Republican package.
_______________________
Chantilly, Va.: What are the chances that the Democrats and Republicans can come together and create a solution to our current financial problem in a timely manner? Which party will be hurt more in the upcoming elections if they can't solve the problem?
David S. Broder: As we visit, I cannot judge the chances of agreement, byut I think there are huge risks for both parties if no agreement is reached.
_______________________
Washington: Can you shed some light on exactly what would happen if Wall Street ISN'T bailed out? What would be the consequences? Why would it cause a major economic disaster?
David S. Broder: This is far from my area of expertise, but the warnings are that without intervention, credit markets would dry up and all forms of commerce would be crippled.
_______________________
Cheltenham, U.K.: Now that conservatives columnists such as Kathleen Parker have taken a negative view of Sarah Palin, do you think the counter of liberal media elites continues? It seems to be starting to balance out that both the left and right have issues and concerns about Ms. Palin's qualifications for the world stage.
washingtonpost.com: The Palin Problem (Townhall.com, Sept. 26)
David S. Broder: AS I have said beforee, the testing of Gov. Palin lies ahead, and I think it well to reserve judgment about her abilities until we see her in less guarded environments.
_______________________
Olney, Md.: It's interesting that Prescott, Ariz., sees the House Repubs as acting "in a deeply unserious and partisan fashion." I'm a far-left liberal, and yet I'm surprised how much I agree with their hesitancy to absolve of much of their responsibility the banks that made such horrendous errors. If I invested all my money in one bad choice, can I get a do-over, too? I'd be willing to see my meager retirement fund take a huge hit if it meant that my tax money -- better spent on public transportation, the crumbling infrastructure and public education -- would not go toward rescuing the financial giants from themselves.
David S. Broder: Your generosity of spirit is admirable, but multiiply your situation by millions of others and the risk to the nation becomes unsupportable. Our priority ought to be saving the economy, not exacting revenge.
_______________________
McCain and the debate: David: Given that you have known him for many years, does John McCain have any particular expertise, experience or leadership ability to apply to the negotiations to settle this financial crisis? Enough to justify keeping him from attending the debate?
David S. Broder: As to expertise, no. There have been times when his excample and leadership have served to bring people together--immigration, filibusters, etc.--but this may not be one of them.
_______________________
Boston: Mr. Broder, in your opinion, should the debate tonight go on?
David S. Broder: Yes.
_______________________
Rockville, Md.: Mr. Broder, your reaction to the following: Most Democrats believe they are the party of government, and are more likely to be willing to make a deal even if it's not the optimum; most Republicans are hostile to government and would torpedo a deal rather than (take your pick) compromise their moral beliefs or lose a political advantage.
David S. Broder: That may be true, but this "deal" is more about the private economy than the government--and I'm surprised that Republicans are willing to run such a risk.
_______________________
Crystal City, Va.: Do the democrats in both the House and Senate have the votes to pass the bailout proposal without the support of House Republicans? Why not do so and call their bluff? Either negotiate in good faith, or we'll pass our version of the bill and Bush will sign that.
David S. Broder: The Democrats believe--and justifiably so--that this is a national problem and both parties should share the evident risks in committing such a vast sum to an uncertain fate.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.: You stated several times during this chat that you're reserving judgment about Gov. Palin until you see her take a more active and public role in the campaign. But what if that doesn't happen between now and Election Day?
David S. Broder: It will happen in the October 2 debate and as she travels with a large and increasingly impatient press corps.
_______________________
Waukesha, Wis.: With all these bank failures, is it still legal for me to trade my chickens for food?
David S. Broder: Yes, but drive a hard bargain.
_______________________
First presidential debate was 1858: According to this article, Lincoln-Douglas was the first presidential debate.
David S. Broder: Nope. Lincoln and Douglas were candidates in Illinois, not running for president.
_______________________
Anonymous: McCain's position is "no bailout deal, no debate." Will he follow through on this promise and allow an Obama 90-minute infomercial viewed by tens of millions?
David S. Broder: I don't know.
_______________________
Baltimore: Okay, so McCain says he needs to go back to Washington to fix this problem and wants to suspend his campaign. But he doesn't get involved until the last minute and his campaign offices are still open and running. While he's in New York in the morning yesterday everyone thinks a bill is going to pass, but when he gets back to Washington the bill falls apart. Did this just backfire on him big time?
David S. Broder: So far, little good has resulted from McCain's intervention or Bush's summit. But the story is still continuing today.
_______________________
Re: Consequences of not reaching a deal: One thing that I don't think has been explained to the American people is that, although relatively few people directly invest in the market, many do so indirectly. If you have a pension, it's invested in the market. If the market crashes on Monday because no deal has been reached, kiss the pension goodbye.
David S. Broder: You are right. That's why this is really important.
_______________________
Washington: Mr. Broder, have you found any consensus among independents and undecideds with regard to Palin's recent mediocre interview? I belive this might foreshadow her performance in the upcoming vice presidential debate.
David S. Broder: I doubt that many people ar5e following the Palin interviews, with everything else that is going on. The debate between her and Sen. Biden will havbe vastly more influence.
_______________________
Tuckahoe, N.Y.: Doesn't this look like a replay of the (successful) right-wing radio response to McCain's bipartisan immigration plan, which he embarrassingly was forced to disown?
David S. Broder: Yes. I made the same point in response to an earlier question.
_______________________
Lawrence, Kan.: Do you sense that the financial crisis will lead to a serious rethinking of how we regulate industries in this nation? Or will it be back to the same political split after we get past this mess?
David S. Broder: I think this has the potential to be a game-changer. What emerges from the next Congress is unpredictable, but I think the chances of systemic change are much greater now.
_______________________
Springfield, Va.: How is allowing bad decisions to have bad consequences exacting revenge, exactly?
David S. Broder: Bad decisions are already having bad consequences. I sense in some of the comments a desire to really punish the bad guys on Wall Street.
_______________________
I realize you're too young to remember this, but ...: what do you think FDR would have done in the present economic circumstances?
David S. Broder: As I wrote in a column the other day, in 1933 it was FDR's voice that was heard, calming the nation. Unfortunately, George Bush at this point has lost so much credibility he cannot fulfill that role.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.: Does it appear to you that we may be on the verge of a meltdown of the U.S. political system with its inability to act on the financial crisis, if that is what happens? How will the November election change all of that?
David S. Broder: I don't think the political system will melt down, but we are seeing it severly tested. And those who fail this test will be punished, I would think, in Novbember.
I have to go back to work now. Thank all of you for participating.
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 25, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
Bring on the Rubber Chicken
BYLINE: By GAIL COLLINS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Pg. 29
LENGTH: 803 words
How do you think the besieged financial community felt when the White House announced that George W. Bush was going to address the nation on television Wednesday night?
Hopeful? Terrified?
''We are in the midst of a serious financial crisis,'' the president said, reading his lines flatly and stolidly, like an announcer delivering a long public-service message about new parking regulations for the holiday season. The whole event had a kind of unreality to it, since Bush has arrived at that unhappy point in American public life when a famous person begins to look like a celebrity impersonator.
There is, in a way, a kind of talent required to tell the nation that it's teetering on the brink of disaster in a way that makes the viewers' attention wander. Bush's explanation about how the rescue bill would unclog the lines of credit made the whole thing sound less important than a Liquid-Plumr commercial.
But help is on the way! John McCain and Barack Obama are going to join Bush at the White House to work over the details of a rescue bill with Congressional leaders. As Obama put it: ''The risk of doing nothing is economic catastrophe.''
Or, as Sarah Palin told Katie Couric on CBS News last night: ''Not necessarily this, as it's been proposed, has to pass or we're gonna find ourselves in another Great Depression. But there has to be action taken, bipartisan effort -- Congress not pointing fingers at this point at ... one another, but finding the solution to this, taking action and being serious about the reforms on Wall Street that are needed.''
So say we all.
(Palin was unable to answer questions about McCain's record and relief for homeowners with troubled mortgages. But she did reveal forthrightly that she considers her running mate a ''maverick.'')
About that rescue bill. Passing it is going to be a test of true bipartisanship, which involves both sides deciding that they will share the blame for doing something messy and unpleasant. But first, Congress has to hold hearings until every single member of the House and Senate has had a chance to yell at Henry Paulson. This can be a surprisingly useful exercise. It is much easier to work up sympathy for the rescue plan once you've heard Senator Jim Bunning of Kentucky call it ''un-American.''
Meanwhile, McCain announced that he was suspending his campaign, taking his ads off the air and going back to Washington to do something leaderlike and bipartisan. This was yet another new McCain, very different from last week's versions, that blamed Obama for the financial meltdown while tossing out rescue plans like a desperate dart player 10 minutes before the bar closes.
''Following Sept. 11, our national leaders came together at a time of crisis. We must show that kind of patriotism now,'' he said.
In deference to the current emergency, we will refrain from pointing out that when our national leaders came together following Sept. 11, the results were, all and all, worse than if they had stayed home.
Last week, while McCain was desperately reinventing his position every day, Obama was withholding, declining to take a position until the administration plan had jelled. But in the end, it turned out that their ideas were both vaguely similar and similarly vague. On Wednesday, Obama called McCain to propose issuing a joint statement. Then McCain one-upped him by announcing that he wanted to postpone Friday's debate until the economy was rescued. His minions raced off to the news shows to say that the American people were ''tired of debates and talking.''
Since Obama, the Commission on Presidential Debates and the University of Mississippi, which is hosting the debate, all say it will go on, it isn't clear what will happen if McCain fails to show up. An empty chair? A last-minute invitation to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr to drop on by? Once in New York, when Rudy Giuliani boycotted a mayoral debate, one of his opponents spent the night twirling around a rubber chicken and the citizenry enjoyed it quite a lot. This isn't the kind of thing you could imagine Obama doing, but I'd keep my eye on Barr.
Obama, meanwhile, had not even promised to show up for the rescue bill vote until McCain made his grand gesture. When reporters asked him on Tuesday whether he was planning to go to Washington, he was noncommittal: ''If we get consensus and everybody is popping Champagne, then I'll probably go back to campaign with folks who are having a tough time in Ohio and Michigan.''
This seemed like an overly casual way to avert economic catastrophe. Since the people of Ohio and Michigan have been visited by a presidential candidate virtually every hour for the last six months, it would seem that they could get by on their own for a day or two.
This election is turning into a Goldilocks story. One candidate's too hot, and one's too cool.
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USA TODAY
September 25, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Lobbyists in 'feeding frenzy';
Financial groups flexing muscles for provisions of $700 billion bailout
BYLINE: Fredreka Schouten, Ken Dilanian and Matt Kelley
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 717 words
WASHINGTON -- The financial services industry, which has spent billions on lobbying and campaign contributions over the past decade, is scrambling to make its case for a proposed $700 billion bailout plan amid deep public skepticism.
Wall Street firms, commercial banks and insurers are lobbying on an array of issues -- from beating back proposals to make it easier to reduce mortgage debts in bankruptcy courts to fighting, unsuccessfully so far, to retain control over executive pay.
"You have a feeding frenzy going on," said Ellen Miller, executive director of the Sunlight Foundation, a non-partisan watchdog group.
Camden Fine, head of the Independent Community Bankers of America, said he worked through the weekend to successfully extend the bailout plan to commercial banks. He hasn't stopped working the phones since. "If cellphones cause cancer, I'm in trouble," he said.
The financial services industry has left its mark in other ways.
An early draft of the proposal had restricted the bailout to firms headquartered in the United States. Scott Talbott, the top lobbyist for the Financial Services Roundtable, said his group was among those that helped to expand that definition to firms with "a significant presence" here. The trade group's members include London-based Barclays.
The association was working to defeat a proposal to allow bankruptcy judges to reduce mortgage debts. Talbott said that would increase banks' risks and drive up mortgage costs. "It could price some people out of the (housing) market," he said.
Consumer groups say the bankruptcy measure would help reduce the number of foreclosures and ease the financial crisis. "Why is anyone listening to the people who brought us this problem?" asked Kathleen Day, a spokeswoman for the Center for Responsible Lending, which supports the bankruptcy change.
Government watchdogs and consumer groups say the political muscle of the industry helped it persuade Congress to change banking and bankruptcy laws in ways that contributed to the crisis.
Political action committees and individual employees of the financial services industry -- which includes finance, insurance and real estate companies -- have contributed $2 billion to federal campaigns since 1989, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics (CRP).
The industry, for example, has contributed nearly a third of all the campaign money that has flowed to the chairmen of the House and Senate committees overseeing the bailout, according to the Sunlight Foundation, which analyzed CRP's campaign finance data.
"What is most troubling about this historic episode is that the problems were identified years ago," Common Cause, a watchdog group, said in a report on the influence of the industry's campaign contributions and lobbying. "Yet, thanks in part to the political power of the financial institutions ... the government refused to step in."
The report cited a 2005 amendment defeated in the Senate, 40-58, that would have curbed predatory lending. No Republicans supported it, Senate records show, and four Democrats voted against it, including Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee. His running mate, Barack Obama, voted for it. Republican nominee John McCain voted against it.
In an interview, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who sponsored the amendment, noted that opponents warned that the measure would have driven Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of the business of subprime lending, which "could have averted this crisis."
Durbin said the bill didn't pass because "there was a lot of money being made -- and the people who were making money in this subprime mortgage mess, many of them were major contributors. That, unfortunately, is a major factor in the decision-making process in Washington."
The financial meltdown has dented the industry's credibility in Congress, says John O'Neill, a lobbyist for the law firm Venable and former staffer for the Senate Finance Committee. That may explain its failure Wednesday to stop Congress from imposing limits on the salaries of executives whose firms seek assistance from the government.
"They're going to be viewed, parts of the financial industry, as a little bit radioactive by some folks up there," O'Neill says.
The Price of Power is an ongoing series tracking the role of money in politics
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September 25, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Debates aren't do or die;
Subtleties, rather than gaffes, often determine the winner of these duels
BYLINE: Ross K. Baker
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 13A
LENGTH: 917 words
John McCain vs. Barack Obama, Round One. It'll happen one of these days.
Though this election's first presidential debate, which was scheduled for Friday, is now in doubt, the importance of such debates is itself a point of debate. Sure, voters tune in to see how convincingly each candidate answers the questions and performs under pressure. Some might even be hoping for a knockout blow or a dramatic implosion. But if history is a guide, they're likely to be disappointed.
Ever since the titanic face-to-face Nixon-Kennedy battles in 1960, few moments in the history of modern presidential debates have altered the course of a campaign. There have been some notable verbal blunders by candidates, but it is the more subtle things that often make the debates influential.
The first notable gaffe took place during the 1976 debate between President Ford and Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter. Asked about Soviet-U.S. relations, Ford concluded that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration." Despite his campaign's best efforts to paper over the flub the next few days, the comment made him seem ill-informed on foreign affairs.
Did it cost Ford the election? Not likely. He was already behind in the polls after his very unpopular decision to pardon Richard Nixon. And Ford had been the butt of many jokes by comedian Chevy Chase about being clumsy and accident-prone.
When emotion matters
Flash forward to 1988 and the final debate between Vice President Bush and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. Dukakis had been accused in a political ad of granting a convict named Willie Horton a prison furlough only to have Horton commit a rape while on a weekend pass.
When asked by the debate moderator what he would do if his wife were the victim of such a rape, Dukakis' reply was bland and bloodless and his face expressionless -- a demeanor that had long defined him. Dukakis said: "I think you know that I've opposed the death penalty during all of my life. ... I think there are better and more effective ways to deal with violent crime." Bush was judged to have won the debate by 49%-33%, according to an ABC instant poll.
More typical of the subtlety of turning points was a comment by President Carter in his 1980 debate with California Gov. Ronald Reagan. Carter related an improbable conversation about nuclear proliferation that he claimed to have had with his daughter, then 13. "I had a discussion with my daughter, Amy, the other day, before I came here, to ask her what the most important issue was. She said she thought nuclear weaponry -- and the control of nuclear arms." The comment was interpreted as evidence of Carter's tendency to exaggerate or stretch the truth.
But the greatest impact in that Carter-Reagan debate was on women. Reagan had been lagging behind Carter in the polls, especially among women who feared that he was trigger-happy. During the debate, though, Reagan instead came across with sweet reasonableness and gave many female voters the reassurance they needed to support him.
Finally, few zingers over the years have gotten as much play as Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen's savage put-down of Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana in the 1988 vice-presidential debate. When Quayle tried to defend his lack of experience by comparing himself with President Kennedy, Bentsen replied: "Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy." Though it was a great example of verbal swordsmanship, Bentsen's remark couldn't save the Dukakis ticket from defeat.
The outcome of the debate is more likely to turn on something that might go unnoticed by many voters. The classic example of this was in 1960, when Vice President Nixon's sallow complexion and profuse sweating went unnoticed by a radio audience that proclaimed him the winner of the presidential debate while the TV audience, noting Nixon's discomfort, proclaimed the suave, composed Sen. Kennedy as the victor.
More recently, President George H.W. Bush's impatient glance at his watch during a question on the effects of the recession in the 1992 debate in Richmond, Va., or Al Gore's exasperated sigh in a 2000 debate with George W. Bush, both played into stereotypes of the candidates that were well established: H.W. Bush as detached and out-of-touch with the problems of ordinary Americans, and Gore as haughty and self-righteous.
What to do -- or not to do
What advice could we give to Obama and McCain that might at least enable them to head off embarrassment, if not actually score a major coup? The eloquent and composed Obama must discipline himself not to come across as supercilious. Whatever the substance of his remarks, he must take care not to play the law professor. McCain's task is somewhat harder. Less eloquent than Obama, McCain can't afford to sound or look his age. He must guard against verbal slip-ups and should, as Reagan did in his 1980 debate, dial back on his bellicose rhetoric. These are the little things that turn out to have a big effect in presidential debates.
Above all, both men, who have made efforts to appear above partisanship, need to maintain a level of civility that would reassure voters who claim to want an end to political polarization.
If it is any comfort to the candidates who might be suffering from pre-debate jitters, nothing that they say or do not say is likely to be a game-changer.
Ross K. Baker is a political science professor at Rutgers University. He also is a member of USA TODAY's board of contributors.
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September 25, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Election could ride on voter comfort level with nominee
BYLINE: Susan Page
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 6A
LENGTH: 1269 words
With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, Republican strategist Ed Rollins and Democratic strategist Robert Shrum debate the state of the presidential campaign, critique both candidates' TV ads and predict what's next. The two veterans of presidential politics joined a USA TODAY panel Tuesday at New York Ad Week, moderated by Washington Bureau chief Susan Page. On Wednesday, the status of Friday's presidential debate became uncertain. Comments have been edited for length and clarity.
On the debates
Q: What role will the debates play this year?
Shrum: Obama has an extraordinary chance to answer the experience question. If he stands up to McCain, does well in that debate, people think he can handle national security, he then potentially will hold the high ground, the commanding high ground of the economy and block off from McCain the capacity to slip away the national security into the White House. ...
This election might be a lot like 1980, where you're not going to see it break until after the debates. If Obama does his job and people feel more comfortable with him and more comfortable with his experience, it will break toward Obama because it's a change election.
Rollins: I think this is very much like '80. The test there was the country wanted to get rid of (President Jimmy) Carter. ... (But) there was real serious doubts about Reagan. Who was Reagan? He was a movie star, governor of California. ...
He (Carter) debated just Reagan a week before the election. And after that night there was a segment of the electorate that was floating up here and it just dropped and it was over. It was literally over the day after the debate because Reagan had met the credibility test, that he wasn't the crazy that Carter had portrayed him to be, and the race was over.
If he (Obama) has the knowledge and appears calm and collected, and people walk off the stage and say, 'You know, I feel comfortable with him in the Oval Office,' then you may see a shift. ...
On the election's closeness
Q: The political landscape favors the Democrats. So why is the presidential contest so close?
Rollins: My sense is that there's serious doubt about Obama for two reasons. One is he's very inexperienced and he's totally undefined. And it's the untold truth that no one ever wants to talk about, and that is this certain ... segment of America that is just not going to vote for a black person. ...
If he had a longer record, this may have gone away because he had been more exposed. But the fact he wasn't known and fact of a lot of questions and a real smear by the Internet -- being a Muslim, where do you come from and all the rest of it -- I think there is a segment out there that is making the race close.
Shrum: The interesting thing is -- and I don't think McCain intended this when he put Sarah Palin on the ticket -- he gave people who might be reluctant to vote for an African American (a chance) to vote against that person and say, 'Of course I'm not prejudiced. I voted for a woman.'
Rollins: This is also the third rematch -- exactly the same geographical campaign turf. No matter how many people talk about 'we're going to expand it,' it's going to be the same (states as) your target list from 2000 or 2004. And the margin may be very close. I can certainly see one winning the electoral vote and one winning the popular vote.
Shrum: The fundamentals of this election strongly favor Obama, just as the fundamentals strongly favored Reagan in 1980. I think that if Obama does his job in the debates, he'll win.
On Wall Street's impact
Q: How does the Wall Street meltdown affect the campaign?
Rollins: Any of us who sat here a year ago, and we were still in Iraq and Afghanistan, we said this war is the issue, the issue, the issue. The war is barely mentioned today.
This (economic situation) is not going to get better in the next six weeks. It's going to be more confused than ever. The market's going to bounce up and down. Ordinary people are going to be more insecure and there is nothing these two candidates can do.
The person who basically can convince voters 'I am the lifeguard and I can get you to shore,' at least understand the problems, may have the advantage here.
Shrum: Well, I think that's what Obama is setting himself up to do.
Look, all through the Sarah Palin mania, he campaigned on the economy, he campaigned on the economy, he campaigned on the economy. He had a hard time getting to the top of the news or sometimes even getting into the news, Biden couldn't get in at all, and he just persisted on the assumption that the campaign would come back to this as a big central issue.
On campaign ads
Shrum: Well, I think there's actually been a long-term secular trend in which advertising, especially outside the primaries, is becoming less and less important and real news, big stories, the Internet is becoming more important. I think that's in part because ... there has been a buildup of distrust in political ads, a healthy distrust by people.
Rollins: There had been such a glut of commercials, viewership is down, viewership is diversified. It's not like the old days: You sat there and watched the commercial and the commercial was something new, introduced a new idea. Now it's just part of the clutter.
On McCain and the GOP
Rollins: McCain won this nomination without hard-core supporters of his own party sort of as a base. Our primary was a NASCAR race. Theirs was a marathon.
I ran Mike Huckabee's campaign. We knocked Romney out in Iowa. Fred Thompson knocked us out in South Carolina. ...
John won by his persistence, but he won that without Republican majorities or conservative majorities. It wasn't until he picked Palin that all of a sudden he cemented that conservative side.
So there's still a lot of doubt. You can have a lot of rhetoric about firing Chris Cox (as chairman of the SEC), and no one in the country knows him outside of Newport Beach, (Calif.). But he was a Republican leader in the House and a very respected leader in the House. (For McCain) to all of a sudden scapegoat him and then to say on 60 Minutes, 'I am going to put Andrew Cuomo in there.' Republicans said, 'You're going to fire Cox and put in Andrew Cuomo? What kind of administration are we talking about?'
On the final weeks
Shrum: If McCain re-establishes himself in this debate and somehow finds his footing on the economy ... the negative ads you have seen here are nothing compared to what I think McCain and sort of some of the independent groups on the right are going to start doing, and then the Democrats are going to have to fight back.
Rollins: I think they (McCain's strategists) have crossed the Rubicon and they feel they can destroy Obama.
(For Obama), there is a real temptation if he starts getting hammered, 'Don't let us get swift-boated again,' ... and the people that have been there before are all going to start to yell and scream, 'You've got to respond; you've got to take him out.' So you could end up in the last six weeks with an Ali-Frazier battle.
The strategists
Ed Rollins, a former amateur boxer known for being combative and outspoken, managed President Reagan's re-election campaign in 1984 and briefly helped run Ross Perot's independent candidacy in 1992. He also advised former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's bid for the Republican presidential nomination this year.
Robert Shrum, a prize-winning college debater who first gained notice for his skills as a speechwriter, has been a top aide to a series of Democratic presidential hopefuls, including Edward Kennedy in 1980 and Al Gore in 2000. He was the top strategist for John Kerry's campaign in 2004.
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September 25, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
At debates, less is more
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 11A
LENGTH: 477 words
If you watch the presidential debates over the next few weeks, you won't see Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr and independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader share the stage with John McCain and Barack Obama.
It's not because Barr and Nader don't want to be there; their comments below show they'd like nothing better. But the Commission on Presidential Debates has standards for deciding whom to include, chiefly that a candidate has to average at least 15% in five national polls before the election. Nader and Barr didn't come close, so they're out.
That's as it should be.
With barely five weeks left before Election Day, voters should get as much time as they can to scrutinize the two candidates who have a chance to win. The debates offer the best opportunity Americans will get to see the nominees under pressure on their own, with no advisers, no surrogates, no script and no lifeline call. There should be no distractions.
For all their skill and passion, neither Barr nor Nader has attracted much of a following, and neither appears to have even a remote chance of doing much more than shaving fractions off the major party candidates' totals. In national polls, McCain and Obama routinely score in the high 40s. In CNN/Opinion Research Corp. polls taken from July to last weekend, Nader, in his fifth campaign for the presidency, has never broken 6% and most recently scored 4%. Barr's high was 3% in July; last weekend, he polled just 1%.
Both Barr and Nader argue that the commission's 15% threshold is a Catch-22 because third-party candidates can't get above that number unless they're in debates or have millions to spend. Barr cites the case of Ross Perot, who polled 7%-14% just before the 1992 debates but drew 19% of the vote after viewers saw him go head-to-head with Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.
In fact, though, Perot got into the debates in part because he had been a much more formidable candidate earlier that year, at one point hitting 38% in national polls and topping both Bush and Clinton. Perot lost much of his support by dropping out of the race and then dropping back in shortly before the debates.
It's true that third-party candidates can bring energy and new ideas to a race, as Perot did when he forced Clinton and Bush to make the federal budget deficit a top-tier issue in the 1992 campaign. But they also have to demonstrate that they've earned their way into the final rounds by building a following with the power of their ideas and the example of their leadership.
Barr, a former congressman who earned a high profile when he helped lead impeachment proceedings against Clinton, has not moved many voters with his libertarian views. Nader has tried and failed to build a serious following since 1992.
With the stakes as high as they are in this election, the presidential debates are no place for the gadflies.
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The Washington Post
September 25, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
To Craft a Rescue, Go Back to Andrews;
A Past Budget Summit's Bipartisan Model
BYLINE: Ruth Marcus
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 676 words
It's time to go back to Andrews Air Force Base -- with a twist.
In 1987 and 1990, administration officials and congressional leaders of both parties huddled behind closed doors at the suburban Maryland facility to hammer out plans to deal with the budget deficit.
The current crisis calls for an updated, hyper-speed version of those negotiations. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should drive out to Andrews with their top people. The senior House and Senate leaders of both parties should go, along with a few key aides.
President Bush has summoned Barack Obama and John McCain to the White House tomorrow. Okay, but yesterday's game of Debate Chicken suggests that inserting the candidates so directly into the negotiating process will help neither the economy nor the campaign -- nor, I suspect, the candidates themselves.
However -- and this is my Andrews twist -- each candidate should send his top economic advisers to my proposed summit. Everyone should pack right now and come back Monday morning at the latest with a deal.
I'm not generally a fan of governing by summit. Like outside commissions, summits tend to produce up-or-down results when they produce any results at all. I prefer a more democratic process. Summits also can devolve into drawn-out marathons. The 1990 summit, in which the first President Bush revoked his "no new taxes" pledge, dragged on for 10 days.
Structuring the bailout arrangement, however, is not the kind of legislation that ought to be open to the potential mischief of amendment on the floor. There is reasonably broad agreement on principles -- that a package is needed and needed quickly -- but complex details must be worked out.
Nothing concentrates the mind like the prospect of a market meltdown. A good weekend's work at Andrews ought to be enough to hammer out the complicated parts, such as what the oversight structure should be or how to deal with executive compensation.
So what should the candidates' roles be? One of the two, after all, will inherit this mess -- and the less messy it is, the better off he will be. Each is, in some sense, the leader of his party. Each is a sitting senator.
They need to be involved, yes, but not so deeply engaged that political maneuvering elbows aside serious policymaking, as yesterday's posturing threatened to do. I suspended my campaign first! No, I care more about the economy and I called you first! I'm above politics! No, I'm above politics! Does anyone think this is productive? Soon enough McCain and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid went at it. By early evening it seemed that everyone was sniping at everyone.
McCain was the worst abuser yesterday. It was bad enough that he announced that the situation was far too serious to do anything as frivolous as debate -- not! -- especially because McCain acted unilaterally, just after finishing a phone discussion with Obama about whether they should issue a joint statement. Then McCain solemnly declared he was also suspending advertising and fundraising -- showboating of the first order. The economy could use that ad revenue, senator.
Then Obama weighed in, saying at a news conference saying he was a walk-and-chew-gum-at-the-same-time guy who could debate and deal with the economic problem, too. Message to candidates: This sort of jockeying for political advantage isn't making anyone look good.
And seriously, no one needs Obama and McCain in the room to work out the details. It's important to the country to hear them debate. But it is also crucial that each campaign participate in crafting, and therefore buy into, whatever deal emerges. The campaigns are neutralized if the candidates have representatives on the scene. And both Obama and McCain could play a useful cat-herding role by providing backing that could calm recalcitrant lawmakers.
In short, the candidates should go on with the show, hold the debate, keep campaigning. Everyone else: Head out to Andrews. A veteran of the 1990 summit tells me that the food there is pretty good.
marcusr@washpost.com
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Greg Gibson -- Associated Press; Senate Minority Leader Robert Dole, right, gives President George H.W. Bush a "budget buster" baseball bat at a summit held at Andrews Air Force Base in 1990. In the foreground is Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell.
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September 25, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
Potomac Confidential;
Washington's Hour of Talk Power
BYLINE: Marc Fisher, Post Metro Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 9353 words
HIGHLIGHT: Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Today's Column: A Street Where Businesses Still Have Some Sense ( Post, Sept. 25)
Fisher was online Thursday, Sept. 25, at Noon ET to look at the response to the financial crisis around the Washington area's main streets, the results of The Washington Post's Virginia election poll, and plans to reshape Tysons Corner.
A transcript follows.
Check out Marc's blog, Raw Fisher.
In his weekly show, Fisher veers wildly from serious probing to silly prattle, and is open to topics local, national, personal and more.
Archives: Discussion Transcripts
____________________
Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, folks. Well, well, things are getting interesting, huh? Quite a chess game in the presidential campaign, and of course Virginia has a front-row seat. It's kind of neat to be a battleground state--and those of us in the District and Maryland benefit too: After four decades of having to read about it from afar, we finally get to see what a presidential campaign looks like. (Though, judging by your emails and comments, you've seen those TV ads and decided you'd rather go back to the usual fare of insurance and credit cards commercials.)
Speaking of which, everything's dissolving around us, or something like that. Today's column visits some small business owners who, unlike the Wall Street fat cats whom we're now supposed to bail out, did their business on the up and up. Should they--we--now have to bear the burden of this massive bailout? Do you buy the notion that the Washington area is likely to come out ahead--protected against the worst of the economic downturn because of the government's presence here, and poised to benefit from the possible creation of a vast new bureaucracy to conduct this mega-bailout?
Less globally, there are increasing rumblings of big budget cuts in Virginia, Maryland and now the District as well--so maybe we're not so well insulated against the pain. How bad do you expect it to get here, and what impact will all this have on how you vote in November?
Sunday's column profiled a Hillary Clinton supporter--a Bethesda psychologist who lives in the District--who made the big switch and even spoke at the Fairfax City rally for John McCain and Sarah Palin. Dozens of you wrote in to accuse me of scouring the planet for the one woman who made that switch of allegiance. But more than 400 of you wrote in to say that you are that woman, just like Lynette Long, and that your reasons are identical to those that Long spelled out in that column.
We've also got a new chapter or two in the local stadium struggles--Prince George's County strengthens its bid to build a soccer stadium for D.C. United, issuing a report detailing the economic benefits to a move of the team to the suburbs. Now it's the District's move. And the Nationals end their lost season with a pathetic whimper and the smallest crowds of the year; time for some big changes on that front, and paying the city its rent would be a great first step.
On to your many comments and questions, but first, let's call the Yay and Nay of the Day...
Yay to the Virginia State Police and their superintendent, who took a stand in favor of following a federal court's ruling and prohibiting police chaplains from talking specifically about Jesus in prayers at public events. The court and the state police both say that such publicly-supported prayer in a taxpayer-supported setting must be nondenominational, and even though six volunteer police chaplains have now resigned in protest over that decision, it's the right policy and the right way to send the message that the police represent everyone.
Nay to the D.C. Board of Elections, which is doing everything but building voter confidence as the November election draws near. The board has still not certified the results of this month's primary vote nor has the board been transparent or remotely encouraging about its investigation of the election night mess that threw into question the results in a couple of races. They couldn't get a low-turnout primary right and now they're going to be in charge of a presidential race with perhaps the highest turnout in history?
Your turn starts right now--but wait: One more thing. I have a nice prize from the Vast Vat of Values for the reader who comes up with the most entertainingly plausible conclusion for this presidential debate drama. What will happen on that stage in Mississippi tomorrow night and how will we get to that moment? Spell out your quick vision of the next 30 hours and at the end of our hour together, I'll award the most creative entry (the winner should then email me with an address to which I can send your prize.)
Play on....
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: Marc, As a newspaper insider can you explain why do gaffes and mistatements by Sen. Biden -- Roosevelt was not President in 1929 and TV wasn't invented until later --( Biden's Gaffe Immunity ( Slate, Sept. 24)) get a pass in the media, while if Gov. Palin made similar statements (see the reaction to her response to the Bush doctrine question from her ABC interview), the media machine would plaster it all across the front page?
Marc Fisher: I can't say I buy your premise entirely. After all, how else do we know about Biden's strange comment about FDR going on TV except from the media who you say are giving him a pass. But there is indeed a difference in the way the Biden gaffe was covered and how any and every utterance by Sarah Palin is covered--and with good reason.
Since the conventions, Biden has given something like 55 interviews and news conferences. The guy talks and talks and talks. So voters get to listen and make an informed choice. Palin, in stark contrast, has given two national TV network interviews and a couple of sessions with friendly outlets. Biden has a voluminous record over the years; Palin is an unknown. So every word she utters is multiplied. That's just the natural course of human events: If you have a friend who never stops yammering and another one who issues a few words of advice every year or two, guess which person you're going to pay more attention to?
But there is another dynamic at work here: Because Palin's handlers are so anxious to keep her away from voters ' and reporters' questions, her rare encounters with the outside world become highly charged. That leads to abuses like CBS anchor Katie Couric's unfair trick on last night's Evening News. Couric interviewed Palin and asked the candidate whether she thought a failure to enact the bailout might lead to conditions like the Great Depression--Couric used that term. Palin then repeated the term and, voila, there's your soundbite, the GOP veep candidate comparing our predicament to the Great Depression. Here's the sleazy part: Couric then interviews John McCain and asks him what he thinks of his running mate using the term "Great Depression" in reference to our current situation. Well, hold on: Yes, Palin said it, but only after and because Couric led her into it. Sure, a more seasoned and savvy politician would avoid falling into that trap, so there is a useful revelation in that Palin wasn't sharp enough to step around the land mine. But for Couric to then twist what had happened in her question to McCain is the sort of trickery that demonstrates how frustrated reporters (and many voters) are by the Republicans' decision to hide their candidate from public scrutiny.
_______________________
Potomac, Md.: So now I'm supposed to clap because some Indian immigrant hair stylist makes a profit, or a Bolivian bakery makes payments on a loan?
It's COUNTRY first. Not India first. Not Salvador first. Not China first. COUNTRY FIRST.
washingtonpost.com: A Street Where Businesses Still Have Some Sense ( Post, Sept. 25)
Marc Fisher: How nice. I suppose it wouldn't interest you in the least that the business owners in question are American citizens, or that they have run stable and productive businesses for decades.
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SE, D.C.: Can you give a fair and balanced assessment of the Washington Teacher's Union? I would not be for the Rhee plan if I were a teacher, but status quo isn't acceptable either. The organization just seems chaotic. Are they stuck in another era, do they not have the capacity to handle their current situation or what? It seems to me they would be proactive on some front to counter the negative view of the organization. I am a DCPS parent, but where's the give and take in this situation?
Marc Fisher: The teachers union in the District is a very divided group right now, with a struggle for its leadership and its direction unfolding even as its members must decide whether to go along with Rhee's restructuring of the basic relationship between management and teachers. And then there's the essential fact that this union is just coming out of one of the most dysfunctional periods in its history, a scandal in which the union's leaders ripped off its members of millions of dollars. At bottom, there is a deep split that breaks down by class, race, age, and just about every other difficult divide you can name. I don't think Rhee or the union leaders now believe they can find a consensus on the merit pay issue, so the next step will be seeing what Rhee has in mind for imposing some sort of restructuring on her own.
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Arizona: Can we postpone the election too? I'm not ready for that, and we need to focus on this $ trillion bailout instead. Country first, you know.
Sincerely, John McCain
P.S. I was a P.O.W.
Marc Fisher: My question is, how does he back down from yesterday's dramatic move? There's no advantage for Obama to accede to a delay in the debate, so does McCain declare victory and go on with the debate, or does he pretend he's the linchpin of the bailout plan and let Obama speak on an otherwise empty stage?
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Arlington, Va.: What are the odds that the Tysons Corner plan actually come to fruition? I'd say slim to none because the traffic along the surface streets can support the density, even with Metro and HOT lanes. I've turned down two very good job offers in that area simply because I don't want to be stuck in traffic every day. I can't imagine what it would be like with 3 or 4 times as many people living and working there.
Marc Fisher: Triple the number of people going to Tysons every day and you could have gridlock, or you could have an exciting, dynamic urban center. A lot depends on how the place is designed and how the density is achieved. Many people would far rather work in a densely-packed downtown with great people-watching, pedestrian-friendly streets, creative retail and usable parks than in a suburban office park where you have to drive to lunch and are otherwise mainly captive in your building.
The transformation of Tysons is wholly dependent on building out the Metro line and then supplementing it with effective streetcars, trolleys, people movers or connector buses. If developers and government merely put up mid-rise buildings on the parking lots of existing offices and malls, the area will be a disaster zone. But if a real new city is created, it could be the best thing to happen to northern Virginia since Old Town developed.
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Arlington, Va.: Last week's discussion about most voters not being on the fringe on either side reminded me of a column I read earlier in the year by Alan Ehrenhalt in Governing Magazine. The Irritable Centrists ( Governing.com) It captured my feelings pretty accurately at the time and it is still a pretty good reading on many of us who are more in the center politically.
Marc Fisher: He's very good. If you like that piece, you should also explore the new book, "Why We Hate Us," by Dick Meyer, who runs NPR.org--it's a riveting explanation of how we got to this difficult moment in our history, and Meyer too argues that we are not nearly as politically polarized as the simplistic cable TV narrative would have us believe, but that we have lost our way and lost many of the bonds that make us into a community.
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Re: Potomac's comments: Uh, these small business owners LIVE in this country, EMPLOY people in this country, PAY TAXES in this country. What does this "Country First" slogan thing have to do with anything? I get it, you hate immigrants, but these people CHOSE to come here and are productive, tax paying members of our society. You missed the entire point of the column. These people ARE putting this country first -- by paying their bills and contributing to the tax base.
Marc Fisher: Thank you.
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Atlanta, Ga.: You are obviously a liberal hack. Please stop pointing out that Biden talks endless and Palin is seldom made available. Palin has said all she needs to say. Why does have to talk to journalists at all? She speaks directly to we the people. You, the evil media, would only take her words out of context.
Marc Fisher: Well, given the lame questions that voters tend to ask in those presidential debates that have been held in the town hall format, we can see why candidates love that format. But Palin hasn't even done that sort of forum. Unlike her running mate or either of the Democratic candidates, she has devoted nearly all of her appearances to repeating the same speech she made at the convention. That's hardly speaking directly to the people.
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What will happen Friday night?: McCain will stay in Washington claiming that he needs to focus his entire attention on the financial bailout. Obama will claim that McCain is stalling and trying to get out of the debate. McCain will not show up at the university, because he will be in D.C. and his campaigning will still be suspended. Obama will appear on stage alone and answer questions from the moderator, all the while bashing McCain for not showing up and "giving the American people the debate they deserve."
Marc Fisher: Could be, but how does that help McCain? Sure, if he is seen to be playing a leading role in creating a bailout package that the people embrace, that's a total victory for him. But given the sour reception that the bailout has had so far in much of the country, it's hard to see that scenario playing out. Other ideas?
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Chicago, Ill.: I'm an Obama supporter, so take that for what you will, but my ideal scenario tomorrow would be for Obama to spend a couple hours talking with the audience about the economy, their fears and hopes, and what this all means for America's future. They can have an empty chair for McCain or whatever, and at the end Obama can thank everyone for their time and we call it a night. I don't recall Lincoln and Douglas postponing their debates because slavery was a hot button issue. Quite the contrary . . .
Marc Fisher: I love the way McCain improvises and goes for the long ball--his would surely be an exciting and different kind of presidency. But as Republican strategists told The Post's Dan Balz in today's story, this move seems awfully odd and not well thought out. This is yet another chapter that helps define the differences between these two candidates--impulsive vs. cautious, hot vs. cool. Yet both seem uncomfortable in their own ways with ideology, which is why both have captured the public imagination.
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It's kind of neat to be a battleground state: Sorry, which is the battleground state?
Surely you do not mean Virginia. It won't even be close (McCain).
Marc Fisher: Ok, we shall see. I agree with you that McCain is likely to win in Virginia, but I don't see any evidence of a rout forthcoming. Neither side's strategists foresee anything like that.
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Washington, D.C.: Instead of DELAYING the debate, what we actually need to do is get Congress to MOVE UP the election, and the inauguration. Too many people in Congress and the administration are hesitant to do anything quickly because they're up for reelection, and because a change in administration could (likely will) yield dramatically different policies.
So let's bump everything up by 6 weeks, figure out who's going to lead us for the next 4 years, and let them roll up their sleeves and get to work.
Marc Fisher: You'd surely win a big majority of votes with that idea. Too bad we have this little thing called the Constitution....
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Charlottesville, Va. : I liked column in today's paper. It's good to be reminded about the local businessman who pays his loans on time and doesn't over-extend himself. But it seems kind of small-minded to demonize everybody who uses terms like "mortgage-backed securities" in explaining the meltdown. I don't totally understand the market forces at work here, but I do understand that it's not an issue that fits nicely into a 10-second soundbyte (or a 18-inch column). That doesn't mean the people trying to explain the reasons for a bailout are all elitist jerks who don't get it themselves.
Though my wife and I pay our mortgage on time and are kind of ticked that our tax dollars could be used to cover for those who don't (and for the banks that finaced them) these fancy talkers have convinced me that the absence of a bailout might translate to layoffs, less credit availability and the further tanking of our 401Ks. So I guess I'm saying that while it's easy to strike a populist position here and demonize the bailout, I'm more worried about the consequences of doing nothing.
I'm no Bush fan, but I thought he did a pretty good job making the case last night.
Marc Fisher: Well, we'll have to differ on this one. I appreciate the kind words about the column, but I know that this can be explained in a clear, concise way. The problem is that, as Chuck Schumer is quoted as saying in today's paper, hardly anyone on the Hill really understands this stuff. And that's not Congress-bashing to say that: Hardly anyone in our whole country understands what's happening here. President Bush made a bit of an effort to lay it out in clear terms last night, but then he fell into a puddle of jargon and couldn't climb out of it. My 12-year-old son, trying to make some sense of the dense, jargon-splattered copy in the newspaper, offered this: "It's like the bank scene in 'It's a Wonderful Life.'" And while that only explains part of the puzzle, it's a really good start, and it's exactly the kind of approach our politicians and journalists should be taking in creating an informed electorate.
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washingtonpost.com: Selfless or Reckless? McCain Gambles On Voters' Verdict ( Post, Sept. 25)
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Silver Spring, Md.: Re: The Palin Bubble "Palin has said all she needs to say." I've heard this talking point in other places. My response is that Palin is an unknown on the national scene and has not been campaigning for the past two years. I've got lots of questions.
If she has exhausted all that she has to say, then she has made my November choice very simple.
Marc Fisher: Right, and certainly that's the view that many Democrats take. But I get a lot of mail from Republicans and independents alike who say that they don't want to hear Palin on policy because they figure she can learn that stuff later. What they cherish about her is exactly her ignorance of all this Washington policy stuff--they see her as someone who would come in fresh and look at it with the same kind of distanced approach that you and I might. It's a lovely, very American sentiment, but it is just that--a sentiment, not a reasoned approach.
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Baltimore, Md.: Marc: Love the fact that the poster in Atlanta refers to the "evil media," but participates in a Post online chat. I generally don't want to talk to Satan, do you?
On more serious note, the Lynette Long thing has me totally flabbergasted as a lifelong liberal Democrat. By this logic, Long would have been happy to vote for Eva Braun and overlook the fact that her boyfriend had some rather extreme notions about race and war. It makes absolutely no sense. And, of course, if I said I was voting for a man because he's a man, Ms. Long would get the vapors.
Marc Fisher: Oh, now you're against double standards, too?
I found Long to be a smart, deliberate and well-reasoned interviewee. I don't agree with her decision that identity politics is more important than basic principles, but I like the idea that she sees more value in being a provocateur than in going along with politics as usual. My sense from many readers is that they are not switching from Clinton to Palin to be as provocative as Long likes to be, but rather because they feel an emotional affinity with both Clinton and Palin, and the merits of most Washington policy matters just don't register with them.
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Can you give a fair and balanced assessment of the Washington Teacher's Union? : No, he cannot.
Marc Fisher: Good one...
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Atlanta, Ga.: re: DCPS. It is very interesting what is going on there. In Atlanta (and my kid is in the city school), we are making progress, but also, can't get rid of bad teachers.
I have a simple question...I know that the superintendent is trying to get to pay for performance. So current teachers can decide if they want to go on that plan. The problem is the good ones will sign up -- the bad ones will keep the status quo (for obvious reasons). But are new teachers who are being hired just going to the pay for performance plan? So in that way, going forward, it would be a better system? Cause otherwise, I don't see how it would work.
Marc Fisher: Doesn't strike me as much of a problem if good teachers sign up for the extra money and are then held to a higher standard. And sure, the worst teachers are unlikely to volunteer to have their performance measured--so they would get lower pay raises and yes, the system might be stuck with them for a while. And yes, new people coming into the system would automatically go into the new merit pay plan.
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Reston, Va. -- Turning chats into political support forums...: To what extent do you think its OK for Post chat hosts to turn their weekly chats into campaign fronts for one candidate or another? Gene Weingarten for example, who is among my favorite writers, routinely insults or puts down chatters who say anything bad about Obama and insinuates that if you care about America you will vote for Obama.
Honestly, it;s a huge turnoff. The Post has enough political chats scheduled on a daily basis. I understand you are all free to do what you want though.
Marc Fisher: Gene has never made a secret of his political views. I try to find a balance between presenting my perspective and offering ideas and reporting from all sides. I make no pretense of being objective--this chat, like my column, takes positions. I don't endorse candidates, though. Sometimes that's hard, but in this presidential race, it's easy--I think these are two of the best candidates we've had to choose from in at least four decades, and I see great merit in both of them.
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Manassas, Va.:'"It's like the bank scene in 'It's a Wonderful Life.'" And while that only explains part of the puzzle, it's a really good start, and it's exactly the kind of approach our politicians and journalists should be taking in creating an informed electorate.
Are you suggesting that the president should be referencing an old Jimmy Stewart movie when addressing the American people?
Is America that dumbed down?
Marc Fisher: There's nothing dumbed down about explaining basic economic concepts--and very complex economic instruments and forces--to a general audience. I don't think I would advise the president to quote Jimmy Stewart's character in an address to the nation, but I'd certainly steal a page from that script and lay out the structure of our problem to the voters in a way that would work for the many, many millions of us who never studied economics.
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RE: What will happen Friday night?: : Friday afternoon, the bailout bill passes in the House, then goes to the Senate. The bill passes 51-49 with no threat of a presidential Veto. McCain jets off to debates claiming he's the hero for casting the deciding vote. Obama's not present at the Senate vote, having left earlier to prepare for the debates.
Marc Fisher: That would be 50-49, in that case.
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Dumb question: I know there's a lot of logistics involved, but why doesn't Obama double down on McCain and offer to meet him to debate in D.C.? Lots of open auditoriums or TV studios around here.
Marc Fisher: I like that one.
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SE, D.C.: Maybe I am confused, McCain is not part of the Finance Committee. He will have no part in this issue until it comes to the floor of the Senate. The Republicans are absolutely masterful in taking advantage of the lack of knowledge of the American public. I would say the media is complicit, but i would doubt if any of the journalist know how Congress works.
Marc Fisher: But wasn't it nifty how the president worked into his purportedly bipartisan or nonpartisan speech last night that he has called Obama and McCain back to Washington to meet with him today? Nice to see McCain and Bush coordinating their campaign efforts.
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Takoma Park, Md.: Before this chat, I had never realized that "Country first" was taken by its base to mean racial code for insulting non-European Americans. Thanks, Potomac, for clueing us all in. We all just learned something about the Republican base.
Marc Fisher: This is a longstanding Republican trope--think back to '68 and My Country, Right or Wrong.
The Democrats open themselves up to this sort of coded language with their cultural deafness, their persistent inability to embrace notions of patriotism, faith and service in any persuasive manner.
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Richmond, Va.: I have to say I would vote a big Nay against your Yay of the day. This is a Christian country and polic chaplians not only should be allowed to invoke the name of Jesus in public ceremonies, they should be required. This is yet another example of our permissive, liberal leaning society persecuting Christians. It only gives us Palin supporters even more motivation to get a true Christian in the White House.
Marc Fisher:"This is a Christian country"??
If this country "persecutes Christians," I'd like to see what you think of, say, Saudi Arabia.
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Alexandria, Va.:"Yay to the Virginia State Police and their superintendent, who took a stand in favor of following a federal court's ruling and prohibiting police chaplains from talking specifically about Jesus in prayers at public events"
I agree. But I also say "yah" to the six chaplains that resigned. The rules changed and they said they couldn't opperate under those conditions. I like people that stand up for their principles.
Of course now it will become a political thing and no one will end up looking good.
Marc Fisher: Good point--absolutely right, if those troopers couldn't perform their religious rites according to their principles by praying nondenominationally, then they were indeed absolutely right to bow out. Surely others can manage that bit of tolerance.
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Woodbridge, Va.: Did you hear that on Tuesday radio station DC-101 announced on air that the Greaseman had died? Thankfully he is alive and well, but it is still unclear if DC-101 originated the hoax as a p.r. stunt or if they were duped by Internet postings.
Marc Fisher: It has all the markings of a classic radio stunt, an attempt to boost listenership by creating buzz around a purported scandal or other such story that you can only hear about in one place. Greaseman, who now does Saturday duties on DC-101, is alive and well (and apparently a bit ticked off that he was declared to be dead.)
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Arlington, Va.: Marc --
Did 94.7 FM change formats again? I had gotten used to and liked their format of diverse music and now it seems to be back to classic rock. Any insight as to what happened?
Thanks!
Marc Fisher: The CBS-owned station has more tweaked than actually changed its format. The attempt to position the station as a green-oriented collection of classic rock and more contemporary rock that would appeal to the environmentally conscious generation flopped. So they're going back to the classic rock roots and they're making one last stab at getting some ratings numbers with that. CBS is looking to dump a lot of its radio stations around the country--they haven't put their Washington properties up for sale yet, but that could happen.
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Doubling Down: Ole' Miss spent a ton of money preparing for this event. It needs to happen, as planned.
Marc Fisher: Not a persuasive reason. Sure, there'd be a lot of disappointment on campus, but that's not a reason to be inflexible. Anyway, it's an academic point--it's hard to imagine the commission on debates acceding to any switcheroo of venue.
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lay out the structure of our problem to the voters in a way that would work for the many, many millions of us who never studied economics. : I don't understand the problem doing this. Put the smartest economists in a room with 2 PR people and a speechwriter or two. Sit there for 2 hours and come out with a speech that does this. Shouldn't be too difficult.
Marc Fisher: Then why hasn't anyone done it?
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Arlington, Va.:"they see her as someone who would come in fresh and look at it with the same kind of distanced approach that you and I might." This is what bothers me -- as some people mentioned on your last chat, I don't want "you or I" running the country. I want someone that has some mix of profound intelligence/experience/leadership abilility, not someone that I think I could be best buds with because we have stuff in common.
Marc Fisher: Yes, but you're deep into the fact-based reality, when many of our fellow countrymen have adopted a new and different approach, one that is driven by affinity and identity, one that is deeply suspicious of the idea that fact, experience and knowledge are credible, trustworthy or useful.
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McLean, Va.: Anyone who thinks that Biden has immunity from being criticized for foot-in-mouth disease has obviously not been watching The Daily Show. Jon Stewart hilariously hoisted Biden on Biden's own petard last night. Stewart made Biden look like a dumb hack.
Stewart also nailed Palin over her U.N. photo-op. And he delivered some serious satire about the indignant remarks of news organizations about their inability to ask questions of Palin.
Marc Fisher: I appreciate the comment and the rejoinder to the earlier post, but I should point out that what we have here is a reader citing The Daily Show as a piece of journalism. Isn't that precisely part of the problem in the divide between those who want to hold Palin to old standards of knowledge and experience and those who want her to be "just like us?"
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The Tree in the Park near the Mailbox: As soon as McCain said he was coming back to Washington to insert himself in the process, Democrats made a concerted attempt to close a deal on the bailout. It looked like they were working feverishly into the night last night to broker a deal to avoid the appearance of McCain saving the day. Barney "My committee is charged with congressional oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" Frank and Harry Reid both made statements with that indication. The deal still has to get through the House. If you don't think the guy at the top of the ticket will have some influence on that, I've got some mortgage securities to sell you.
Marc Fisher: So what you're saying is that McCain managed to inject partisan politics and thereby speed up a process that had been chugging along with lots of legitimate questions about an ill-defined plan?
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Washington, D.C.: Hi Marc, I've never voted for a Democrat in a general presidential election but as a current independent I want Republicans to answer me this --
How does anyone consider putting Palin just one major health event away from the presidency, with McCain as a man of 71 years in moderately failing health, a responsible vote?
I just can't get over that.
Marc Fisher: I had several emails from Republicans making exactly your point and dubbing themselves "rational Republicans."
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Washington, D.C.: Actually, now that I think about it, the money spent should be a valid reason to not change/cancel the debate. We are in the middle of a crisis that is reflective of our "throw away" mentality. Money spent? Ah well, there's more where that came from. So now the school gets nothing out of it, wasted tens of millions of bucks, and now money is spent elsewhere to set up shop in D.C.? No, doesn't sound right to me.
Marc Fisher: The banners behind the candidates could read, "Ole Miss First."
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RE: 30 Hours: McCain loses on 'Don't Forget the Lyrics'; Obama wins 'The Amazing Race'; Palin wins 'America's Toughest Jobs' by killing a moose using only her glasses; Biden wins $300,000 earmarked dollars from 'Deal or No Deal'.
Marc Fisher: And then they all come together to play that Japanese game where they have to twist their bodies to fit the cutouts that might push them into a vat of water.
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there'd be a lot of disappointment on campus, but that's not a reason to be inflexible. : No, you thick thick man, the poster wasn't talking about the students' disappointment, he/she was referring to the MILLIONS that have been spend getting the campus ready. You don't shrug off that kind of money, use your brain Marc.
Marc Fisher: I'd sooner shrug off all that money than have the country miss out on a debate.
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Arlington, Va.: Great column today, Marc. My wife and I own a small business in Arlington and are struggling to figure out how is it that huge financial institutions are as irresponsible as my 3-year-old in an ice cream shop?! Surely someone, or some group of people, could have seen this coming and averted the disaster. It certainly doesn't happen overnight. We should let these institutions fail, let them realize what happens when you bite off more than you can chew, draw down the economy even more, and maybe EVERYONE will realize at some point that they need to use more common sense when it comes to spending and investing money.
Marc Fisher: Sounds right to me. If a bailout is needed, why shouldn't the government revive the economy through a program of public works that would create millions of jobs, repair our sagging infrastructure, put the money in the hands of those who most need and deserve it, and rebuild the economy from the bottom up rather than leaving it all at the top?
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Navy Yard, D.C.: Marc, Two Sundays ago the ombudsman promised to write more about cartoons, especially one very offensive cartoon concerning Sarah Palin's religion. I'm still waiting to hear from her, but I'm curious from your point of view why The Post will run cartoons making fun of various Christian religions (besides the one in question there were a few about the Pope, etc. ...), but cowers at the idea of printing cartoons concerning the Muslim faith. Is the lesson that riots and violence are effective tools in preventing newpapers form printing offensive cartoons? That's the message I'm getting from The Post.
Marc Fisher: If we're talking about the same cartoon, that never ran in The Post. It appeared through some sort of automated feed on our web site, but not in the newspaper.
I have nothing whatsoever to do with picking editorial cartoons, but speaking solely on my own, I would never choose a cartoon based on its message but rather on its effectiveness at making whatever point it was making. I wouldn't shy from publishing cartoons that poke fun at any religion, no matter how oversensitive some members of that faith might be. An editor's job is to inform, educate, involve and challenge readers, and a cartoonist does his share of that job by provoking and by playing with our stereotypes and our sense of propriety. Poking fun at religions is often the right thing to do, just as poking fun at politicians, journalists or (gasp) readers might also be the right thing to do.
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New England: What will happen Friday: Well, as far as showmanship, you couldn't beat McCain timing it to arrive LATE to the debate: you know, stay in D.C. until the very last minute and then plan on arriving about 30 minutes in -- the delay would be short enough to still hold the debate, while getting everyone talking about why he's not there... Obama and the moderator would be passively waiting for him. And when he got there, he could say "Phew, my friends, I'm sorry I'm late, but I was just in D.C. where the bailout was passed! But I knew I needed to be here with you, so, let's talk foreign policy." Or something like that. But I'm cynical.
Marc Fisher: Now we're getting to it. Political consulting may be in your future.
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Clueless Dems and Sarah Palin: Almost every person I have spoken to who is entranced by Sarah Palin, and energized by her presence on the Republican ticket, has mentioned his or her resentment at what his perceived to be a condescending, arrogant attitude by Democrats like Obama and John Kerry (Bill Clinton usually gets a pass). Lots of people resent being thought of stupid, uneducated rednecks, and they view Ivy Leaguers as clueless eggheads who do not share their views or concerns. I must have had Palin's line about "Scranton v. San Francisco" quoted to me a dozen times. They share William F. Buckley, Jr.'s view that he'd rather be governed by the first twenty names in the Boston phone book than the faculty of Harvard University.
Marc Fisher: Except of course that Buckley didn't really believe that in the least. His entire life was a lovesong to elitism. I'm not sure which is more dishonest and sickening--the Democrats' deafness to their own snobbery and sense of superiority, or the Republicans' cynical pretense of believing in the wisdom of the common man when they actually believe no such thing. The easiest blind quote to get this campaign season is from GOP campaign strategists and politicians who under cover of anonymity are happy to talk about what a dunce they think Palin is and what ruses the American people are for buying her as a legitimate candidate. But the second you ask any of those Republicans if you can quote them by name, they are praising McCain for recognizing the native genius of the average uninformed American.
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Crofton, Md.: I was disappointed to hear Jim Bowden say on the radio yesterday that the Nats will not bring in a big name player "just to attract more fans to the park." How about a big name player who will contribute to some wins and in that way attract more fans to the park?
I thought your list of reasons the Nats don't draw more was right on. Fans will come to the park a couple times just to see the park, but then the on-field product, not minor-league type between innings stunts, is what will draw them back.
The racing Presidents are brilliant. Everything else should go back to the drawing board.
You're also correct about the totally dead atmosphere at Nationals Park, even when the team is winning. The Orioles are so bad that only die-hard fans will continue to go -- that would be me -- but the atmosphere is much more charged even when they are going through their typical "walk everyone in sight and then hit those you don't walk" phsses.
Finally, I would have expected a few more fans to show up to root for the visiting teams. I went to college and law school here in the 1960's, when attendance was laughble everywhere, but, because D.C. attracts people from all parts of the country, there were always sizeable groups cheering for the Indians, Tigers, White Sox, you name it. The same is true at Wizards and Caps games, and at OPACY. Hey, NL fans, we have a team here! And one your team can probably clobber. C'mon out and cheer them on! At least it will add some excitement to the mix.
(The above does not apply to Phillies and Mets fans!)
Marc Fisher: Good points. The fans from other cities do come out--the Nats had very strong crowds for the Cubs, Cards, Dodgers and of course the Mets and Phils. But this is a large and stable enough region that it does not need the fans of the visiting teams the way Baltimore does. And the RFK years prove that: Attendance was very strong when the Nats were doing decently, or when they had an exciting player or two (the Soriano era). Washington fans are hard to get excited, but if you give them something to cheer for, they will come around. The part of this I'm not yet sure about is the role the new stadium plays: First of all, the area around it is such a dead zone that it may put people in the wrong mood. Second and more important, I don't know yet whether its sound design hinders a crowd's role in the game. RFK was an awful stadium, but its enclosed design made it a great place for cheering, and add in the bouncy seats and you had a terrific recipe for the crowd playing a big role in the game, whether it was the Redskins or the Nats.
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Alexandria, Va.: Something to keep in mind about the Nats attendence "woes." Assuming that they lose 100 games (a pretty safe bet), they would have been only the 3rd 100 loss team in baseball history to draw over 2 million people. Yes, I agree, the team is awful and the seats are overpriced, but 2.3 million people is pretty good for a triple A team.
Marc Fisher: That would be impressive if they weren't in a new stadium. But they were. They should have drawn more, even with an awful team.
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Urbana, Md.: I come from some distance to see Nats games, so was happy to see that there is now plentiful parking around the stadium. My question, however, is what does it cost? When I originally checked this out, nearby spaces cost $35-40/game, which is beyond my means. We are casual baseball fans who usually sit in the $10 seats, which are a great bargain, whose appreciation and love of the game is growing -- just the type of people the Nats should be trying to attract! Having moderately priced parking close to the stadium would greatly help achieve that goal.
Marc Fisher: There are plenty of $20 spots within two blocks of the stadium and plenty of $15 spots a few blocks away. But that's just the official story. Unofficially, all you have to do is drive up to any of the lots that don't officially sell daily parking and the attendants will be glad to let you in for half-price (of course they pocket the money, but I'd far rather they get the cash than the parking companies they work for.)
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Bethesda, Md.: Marc, Maybe we should revive: Washington! First in War First in Peace Last in the (now) National League
Marc Fisher: I don't know about the first in peace part.
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Washington, D.C.: The Nationals have very few fans that follow the team closely; almost all of the fans that show up at Nationals Park are either casual fans of the Nats or fans of the opposing team. To this core group of fans, the won-loss record of the Nats isn't nearly as important as having a good time at the ballpark.
IMO, what's missing at Nationals Park is showmanship. If the Nats are not going to field a competitive team, then where is our version of Marvelous Marvin Throneberry? Why not have the Nats' manager, Manny Acta, get into tirades with the umpires, if for no other reason than to entertain the crowd? In short, the Nats should add some spice to the ballpark experience and make it more interesting to those of us who are resigned to the notion that the team will likely be bad to mediocre for many years to come.
Marc Fisher: More showmanship on the field, yes, but less showmanship off the field. I love the scoreboard and the racing presidents and all that, but for the love of God, they have got to get rid of Clint, the moronic clod who acts as official cheerleader and phony TV host of the games.
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The Debate: Let them both stay in D.C for the vote and then conduct it via video feed with the moderator in Mississippi.
Marc Fisher: Goodness, a compromise!
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Atlanta, Ga.: Obama will agree to spend Friday night in D.C. with McCain, but only after insisting that the Ole Miss location be used for a VP debate...
Marc Fisher: But then what about the poor folks at Washington University in St. Louis, who are supposed to be host to Biden and Palin next week?
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You're channelling FDR: Although I think a new New Deal would be a GREAT idea!
Marc Fisher: Sure, but let's also remember that for all of his grand and sweeping efforts, FDR's works programs and other government investments didn't turn around the economy for quite some years. In the end, it was the war, not the works programs that revived the economy. But at least Roosevelt's efforts utterly remade the physical infrastructure of the country, and put millions back to work.
_______________________
Silver Spring, Md.: I know you don't have the time or space to explain the entire financial crisis. Here is a basic question if I have decent credit and a trade-in could I get a loan today to buy that pretty yellow Toyota Matrix advertised next to this quesiton block? If I can today then how long before I won't be able to without Congress passing this bailout plan? These are the basic questions the government needs to answer.
Marc Fisher: I wish I knew the answers, but yes, that's exactly the sort of thing we should be able to answer after hearing our representatives debate and explain the situation before they saddle us with a debt that will crush us and our children.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: I'm struck by comments saying that it's perfectly fine for Sarah Palin to be shielded from the press because the media beats her up. If you want to be in politics, local or national, you are going to have to deal with the press. Is the coverage always fair, no, but it comes with the territory. You as a politician need to learn how to handle it, and making yourself unavailable except to friendly crowds doesn't cut it. If you can't handle it, you're in the wrong line of business.
Marc Fisher: Sounds right to me.
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Washington, DC: Not sure if you caught the controversy last night, but McCain was scheduled to be on Letterman and canceled last minute saying he had to be back in D.C. Meanwhile, Letterman found out he lied because he was appearing on Katie Couric which taped at the same time. Because they are all in the CBS family, Letterman had the feed of the interview live and aired it on the show.
My question is there really NO ONE on his team that could spin that better? Yikes.
What about a, "Hey Davey ole pal, I'm really sorry but in light of the serious financial crises going on we feel that it's critical the senator takes the time to talk about these serious economic issues that concern all of us on the news show with Couric.....etc., etc., but we'll be sure to reschedule at another time..."
That's just off the top of my head, but seriously, no one on his team thought it'd be a bad idea to just outright lie? Or they just didn't care about lying or getting caught lying? Hmmm.....that sounds a bit familiar.
Marc Fisher: I didn't see the Letterman, but from what I read, he let McCain have it when he learned what had really happened.
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Arnold, Md.: I assume Nats personnel read this chat, and just wanted to commend the team for providing the free bus service from RFK. It's great! Now that the season is winding down, those of us who take it regularly are worried it might be discontinued. Please don't do that -- it works great!
This was true even on Opening Night, when the buses were mobbed and it took some of us over 2 hours to get into the park. One happy rider exclaimed, if Dan Snyder were doing this, he would charge $18.50 -- and require exact change!
But I do have a question. I take the handicap trams between the drop-off point and the stadium, and always tip the driver as I understand they depend on tips. How about the bus driver? Are they salaried employees or do they depend on tips? Anything to keep this service rolling! Thank you very much.
Marc Fisher: I don't know, sorry--my inclination would be to give the guy a tip (it can't hurt), but I really don't know if those drivers are tip-dependent. Hey, these days, we're all tip-dependent.
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Arlington, Va.: Marc: I just got an e-mail from the Warner campaign that contained a letter from Jason Alexander (George on Seinfeld) telling me that he is throwing his support behind Mark Warner. Why would the Warner campaign distribute this? Do they really think that anyone in Virginia cares who Jason Alexander is supporting? So strange...
Marc Fisher: Ugh. That's sad.
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Washington, D.C.: Here's the next 30 hours.
McCain stays in D.C., lobbies (?!) his colleagues to pass the bailout, then tries to fly down to Mississippi. The tropical northeaster arrives, bringing rain, wind, and a run on toilet paper. Unable to access their lines of credits, grocery stores are unable to re-stock their shelves. Their is no toilet paper, which creates new uses for U.S. currency. Bonfire of vanities are set throughout the streets. McCain is trapped in D.C.
Obama, with the stage to himself, debates an empty chair. But, he still can't complete his answers in the alloted time...
Marc Fisher: Ok, just a couple more and I'll have to declare a winner....
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Anonymous: All the senators Biden, Obama and McCain should be in Washington working on the financial legislation.
Send surrogates, Financial team from both sides. If they don't have a team 40 days out why the heck not?
Of course if Paulson is staying for Mccain that might be an issue.
Marc Fisher: Surrogates? I don't think so--voters need to see the actual person who will be handling the big crises and we need to see them taking tough questions, not conducting gang news conferences on the Hill. If these two candidates were, say, governors instead of senators, we wouldn't be having this discussion--the debate would just go ahead as planned. No one senator is crucial in any debate or negotiation. After all, both McCain and Obama have been AWOL from their day jobs for more than a year.
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Wac, Ky.: What gives with all of the wackos in today's chat? Did Hannity or Rush not have a noon show today?
As for Friday, McCain tucks tail and heads out to the debate but, being old, forgets where it is and misses it anyway.
Marc Fisher: Ouch.
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Bethesda, Md.: Here's why no one has laid out the structure of the crisis: It comes down to the fact that Wall Street and the banks packaged all sorts of debt together (not just mortgages, but credit cards and other forms of debt) and sold those packages as if they were stocks. The problem is, nobody really kept track of what went where, so we know a whole lot of the debt is bad, we just don't really know how much or where it is or who owns it.
This is the sort of story that a four-year-old attempts to tell to mom when he's been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Only in this case, it's true. But who would believe the titans of finance could be such idiots?
Marc Fisher: That's a good start, but how about a good explanation of what's in those bundles and who buys them and how, and what happens to them after that?
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Debate This: I am so irritated by this debate issue. There is no reason that the future president of the United States should be so consumed by a single issue that everything else falls totally off the radar. I expect President Bush is still engaged in foreign policy, still getting security briefings and still running two wars. These candidates had best be able to solve a crisis while thinking about foreign policy at the same time.
Secondly, a tremendous amount of work and money as gone into planning for this debate and it is unfair to those folks to cancel at the last minute.
Marc Fisher: Even Gerald Ford could manage a few things at once.
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Bethesda, Md.: My prediction: Congress and the administration make a deal and McCain comes out against it. That way he can claim to be running against both Bush 'and' the Democrats 'and' be for the "little guy".
Marc Fisher: But does he do all that by this time tomorrow?
_______________________
Florida is also a swing state : And I just show a McCain ad on TV.
This is a definition of "suspension" I'm not familar with, did he mean he would hang it from a building?
Marc Fisher: Hmmm, interesting. Though TV spots are bought well in advance, so it's possible that they just aren't buying new time for today. Or it's possible that he just said it and didn't actually do it.
_______________________
Washington Teacher's Union: My fiance is a 3rd year teacher there and attended the meeting "town hall" between the union and teachers on Tuesday night. The union is indeed chaotic, and there is an open power struggle with the vp. and the president openly arguing with each other. She also said that there were a great many middle-aged teachers who are terrified of any change and basically feel like they are entitled to just go through the motions because they have been teaching here for 20 years. It's a very messy situation, I wonder why D.C. can't get good teachers to come teach/stay teaching in D.C.?
Marc Fisher: My sense is that a lot of new teachers in the system are really quite good. Things are changing.
_______________________
The transformation of Tysons is wholly dependent on building out the Metro line: I reall hope that this NEVER happens. Metro has enough problems running the system on the track it has, we don't need another extension. If we're going to spend billions on anything, let's spend it on putting in a second track alongside the existing one's on all Metro lines so that when there is a sick passenger or a mechanical failure the entire system doesn't grind to a halt. Extending Metro is an insane notion given its current state.
Marc Fisher: There's some truth in that, but extending Metro could help generate the revenue and the voter buy-in to fund the improvements that you want and need.
_______________________
Marc Fisher: Lots of intriguing scenarios you've all proposed for the denouement of the debate debacle. I'm giving the prize to the post from New England that read like this:
New England: What will happen Friday: Well, as far as showmanship, you couldn't beat McCain timing it to arrive LATE to the debate: you know, stay in D.C. until the very last minute and then plan on arriving about 30 minutes in -- the delay would be short enough to still hold the debate, while getting everyone talking about why he's not there... Obama and the moderator would be passively waiting for him. And when he got there, he could say "Phew, my friends, I'm sorry I'm late, but I was just in D.C. where the bailout was passed! But I knew I needed to be here with you, so, let's talk foreign policy." Or something like that. But I'm cynical.
New England, please email me with your name and address and I'll get your prize in the mail pronto. Thanks to all for playing along.
Stay dry and let's hope we get to see the candidates debate. And I withdraw my earlier comment about agreeing that it would be good to vote sooner--this is one heck of a campaign. Maybe we should stretch it out a bit longer....
Back next week--thanks for coming along.
_______________________
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The New York Times
September 24, 2008 Wednesday
The New York Times on the Web
McCain Aide's Firm Was Paid by Freddie Mac
BYLINE: By JACKIE CALMES and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
SECTION: Section ; Column 0; National Desk; Pg.
LENGTH: 1401 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
One of the giant mortgage companies at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain's campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.
The disclosure undercuts a statement by Mr. McCain on Sunday night that the campaign manager, Rick Davis, had had no involvement with the company for the last several years.
Mr. Davis's firm received the payments from the company, Freddie Mac, until it was taken over by the government this month along with Fannie Mae, the other big mortgage lender whose deteriorating finances helped precipitate the cascading problems on Wall Street, the people said.
They said they did not recall Mr. Davis's doing much substantive work for the company in return for the money, other than speak to a political action committee of high-ranking employees in October 2006 on the approaching midterm Congressional elections. They said Mr. Davis's firm, Davis & Manafort, had been kept on the payroll because of Mr. Davis's close ties to Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who by 2006 was widely expected to run again for the White House.
Mr. Davis took a leave from Davis & Manafortfor the presidential campaign, but as a partner and equity-holder continues to benefit from its income. No one at Davis & Manafort other than Mr. Davis was involved in efforts on Freddie Mac's behalf, the people familiar with the arrangement said.
A Freddie Mac spokeswoman said the company would not comment.
Jill Hazelbaker, a spokeswoman for the McCain campaign, did not dispute the payments to Mr. Davis's firm. But she said that Mr. Davis had stopped taking a salary from his firm by the end of 2006 and that his work did not affect Mr. McCain.
''Senator McCain's positions on policy matters are based upon what he believes to be in the public interest,'' Ms. Hazelbaker said in a written statement.
The revelations come at a time when Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama are sparring over ties to lobbyists and special interests and seeking political advantage in a campaign being reshaped by the financial crisis and the plan to bail out investment firms.
Mr. McCain's campaign has been attacking Senator Barack Obama, his Democratic rival, for ties to former officials of the mortgage lenders, both of which have long histories of cultivating allies in the two parties to fend off efforts to restrict their activities. Mr. McCain has been running a television commercial suggesting that Mr. Obama takes advice on housing issues from Franklin D. Raines, former chief executive of Fannie Mae, a contention flatly denied by Mr. Raines and the Obama campaign.
Freddie Mac's roughly $500,000 in payments to Davis & Manafort began immediately after Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in late 2005 disbanded an advocacy coalition that they had set up and hired Mr. Davis to run, the people familiar with the arrangement said.
From 2000 to the end of 2005, Mr. Davis had received nearly $2 million as president of the coalition, the Homeownership Alliance, which the companies created to help them oppose new regulations and protect their status as federally chartered companies with implicit government backing. That status let them borrow cheaply, helping to fuel rapid growth but also their increased purchases of the risky mortgage securities that were their downfall.
On Sunday, in an interview with CNBC and The New York Times, Mr. McCain responded to a question about Mr. Davis's role in the advocacy group through 2005 by saying that his campaign manager ''has had nothing to do with it since, and I'll be glad to have his record examined by anybody who wants to look at it.''
Such assertions, along with McCain campaign television ads tying Mr. Obama to former Fannie Mae chiefs, have riled current and former officials of the two companies and provoked them to volunteer rebuttals. The two officials with direct knowledge of Freddie Mac's post-2005 contract with Mr. Davis spoke on condition of anonymity. Four other outside consultants, three Democrats and a Republican also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the arrangement was widely known among people involved in Freddie Mac's lobbying efforts.
As president of the Homeownership Alliance, Mr. Davis got $30,000 to $35,000 a month. Mr. Davis, along with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have characterized the alliance as a coalition of many housing industry and consumer groups to promote homeownership, but numerous current and former officials at both companies say the two mortgage companies created and bankrolled the operation to combat efforts by competitors to rein in their business. They dissolved the group at the end of 2005 as part of cost-cutting in the wake of accounting scandals and, at Freddie Mac, a lobbying scandal that forced out its former top Republican lobbyist.
On Monday, the McCain campaign accused The New York Times of bias for reporting the payments to Mr. Davis for the alliance work from the mortgage giants. Mr. Davis said that he had worked not for the two companies but for the advocacy group, which included other nonprofit organization as well, and was focused only on promoting homeownership.
After the Homeownership Alliance was dissolved, Mr. Davis asked to stay on a retainer, the people familiar with the deal said. Hollis McLoughlin, who was chief of staff to Richard F. Syron, Freddie Mac's chief executive, arranged for a new contract with Davis & Manafort, at the reduced rate of $15,000 a month, they said. Mr. Syron lost his job in the government takeover this month. Mr. McLoughlin, who through a spokeswoman declined to comment, was a former chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady in the first President Bush's administration, and has longstanding Republican ties.
Mr. Davis was hired as a consultant, not a lobbyist, the officials said. Davis & Manafort in recent years has filed federal lobbying reports for a number of companies but not Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae.
Later in 2006, Mr. Davis was working on Mr. McCain's emerging presidential campaign, as chief financial officer. The only thing that Freddie Mac officials could recall Mr. Davis doing for the company was the October 2006 pre-election forum with mid-level and senior executives who contribute to Freddie PAC, the company's political action committee.
An electronic invitation to the employees, read by an official to the New York Times, said ''Please join us for political food for thought'' with Paul Begala, a longtime Democratic consultant, ''and Rick Davis, former 2000 presidential campaign manager and current advisor to Senator John McCain.'' Mr. Begala, who also was a paid consultant to Freddie Mac until this month, confirmed that the event took place.
At least two other people associated with Mr. McCain have ties to either Freddie Mac. The lobbying firm of the Republican that Mr. McCain has enlisted to plan his transition to the White House should he be elected, William Timmons Sr., earned nearly $3 million from Freddie Mac between 2000 and its seizure, federal lobbying records show. Mr. Timmons is founder of Timmons & Co., one of Washington's best-known lobbying shops. The payments were first reported by Bloomberg News.
Mark Buse, Mr. McCain's chief of staff for his Senate office, also is a Freddie Mac alumnus. He and his former lobbying employer, ML Strategies, registered to lobby for the company in July 2003, and received $460,000 before the association ended after 2004.
Mr. McCain and his advisers have argued that whatever connections Mr. Davis and other McCain campaign officials have had to the mortgage giants, Mr. McCain in the Senate hasbeen an advocate for reforming them. And they have suggested that Mr. Obama is linked to the companies through donations from their employees ties to former officials there, including James Johnson, another former chief executive of Fannie Mae who was the head of Mr. Obama's vice presidential search team until stepping aside after coming under criticism for getting a mortgage on favorable terms.
Since his first campaign for the Senate in 2004, Senator Obama has received about $126,000 in contributions from employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while Senator McCain, over the last decade, has received about $22,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
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September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Pinpoint Attacks Focus on Obama
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1304 words
STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich. -- Hundreds of times in the past three weeks, cable television viewers here have been the exclusive audience for two of the roughest advertisements of the political season.
One links Senator Barack Obama to the former mayor of Detroit, Kwame M. Kilpatrick, an African-American whose political career unraveled in scandal. The other features Mr. Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A Wright Jr., also black, and his now infamous sermon marked by the words ''God damn America.''
The advertisements, from a political action committee that is not connected to Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, are running only here, in Macomb County, heavily populated by white, unionized auto workers, once considered ''Reagan Democrats,'' whose votes could largely determine which candidate wins Michigan, a state vital to both sides.
The advertisements point up the unusual nature of this year's more potentially pernicious political attacks: They are not coming with the loud, nationally recognized cannon blast of the type launched by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth against Senator John Kerry in 2004, but, rather, as more stealthy, narrowly aimed rifle shots from smaller groups armed with incendiary material.
Mr. McCain has at times been a target of over-the-top attacks from outside groups, such as a recent advertisement from the liberal group Brave New Pac, based in California, that suggested his time in a Vietnamese prison ill-affected his ability to be president; the Internet was filled with various unsubstantiated and discredited rumors about his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, immediately after he named her last month.
But the more explosive charges from outside groups against Mr. Obama have often drawn closer scrutiny this year for their volume and the cultural and racial sensitivities they tend to touch, and, occasionally, seek to exploit.
In Mr. Obama's case, the messages have frequently sought to paint him as foreign, like the chain e-mail messages sent for months to Jewish areas of Florida, suburban Philadelphia and other swing states that portray Mr. Obama as Muslim (he is Christian). This week, a hate group calling itself the League of American Patriots distributed fliers to as many as 50 homes in Roxbury, a mostly white town in northern New Jersey, portraying Mr. Obama as Osama Bin Laden and including language that was derisive of black people.
The Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks extremist groups, said the fliers, initially reported by The Star-Ledger in Newark, were the first overtly racist printed tracts of their kind this election season.
The advertisements running here against Mr. Obama come from a group called Freedom's Defense Fund, a political action committee based in Washington that was formed four years ago and raises money from conservatives around the country. The advertisements have stood out because of the group's connections -- including to its paid consultant, Jerome S. Corsi, the author of the highly negative, largely discredited political biography of Mr. Obama, ''Obama Nation'' -- and what local critics say are their racial overtones.
''That's all they are -- race oriented,'' said Ed Bruley, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Macomb. ''I think some people will be affected by it, others will see it for what it is.''
It is a view shared by Democratic leaders, including Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who, in a recent interview with MSNBC, said of the advertising campaign, ''The fact that it is being run in a predominantly white suburb tells you that there is an explicit effort to try to divide people by race.''
Todd Zirkle, the executive director of Freedom's Defense Fund, said race had ''zero'' to do with the spots. ''That's the standard retort when you want to say 'Don't listen to these people,' '' Mr. Zirkle said.
He said the group's intention was to show Mr. Obama's affiliations -- although Mr. Obama and Mr. Kilpatrick were never known to be close.
He said coming spots would highlight Mr. Obama's ties to two white men, the developer Antoin Rezko, a former financial backer of Mr. Obama's who has been convicted of fraud, and to the Weather Underground founder William Ayers, with whom Mr. Obama worked on an education commission in Illinois and whose past Mr. Obama has repudiated.
Mr. Zirkle said a fifth spot would highlight Mr. Obama's supposed support for the Kenyan prime minister, the opposition leader Raila Odinga. Mr. Zirkle did not share that script, but Mr. Corsi's book asserts, without substantiation, that Mr. Obama has been a close supporter of the African leader. Mr. Obama remained neutral in the Kenyan elections.
Officials with Freedom's Defense Fund, which gives Mr. Corsi's book to its donors, said they paid Mr. Corsi only to help write fund-raising appeals. Federal returns show he was paid $15,000 as a fund-raising consultant. But the details of his book provide a thread that runs through several of the anti-Obama groups.
One of them is the National Campaign Fund, a group directed by Floyd Brown, who produced the Willie Horton attack ads against Gov. Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts in the 1988 race. An advertisement Mr. Brown hopes to run against Mr. Obama this fall -- and now on his group's Web site -- cites Mr. Corsi's book in trying to paint Mr. Obama as a Muslim.
Mr. Brown said in an interview that he had spoken with Mr. Corsi, whom he said he has known ''for years,'' but Mr. Corsi is not listed as a formal consultant. Federal filings show that Mr. Brown's group has spent more than $60,000 for a direct mail campaign, the content of which he would not share.
Disputed claims that Mr. Corsi has made about Mr. Obama's abortion stance have dovetailed with those of a group that recently ran a commercial in Dayton, Ohio, accusing Mr. Obama of supporting ''infanticide'' (he does not).
The group, the Black Republican PAC, has several connections to the Freedom Defense Fund. They share the same treasurer, Scott B. MacKenzie, who had also worked on Ronald Reagan's presidential campaigns in 1980 and 1984, as well as those of Jack Kemp and Patrick J. Buchanan. Mr. MacKenzie's office is located in the direct mail firm working with both groups, BMW Direct, whose chief operating officer, Michael Centanni, is also the chairman of the defense fund.
Mr. Centanni said he has no connection to Mr. McCain's campaign. He said Freedom's Defense Fund, with relatively scant resources to spread nationally, decided it could have the most impact by focusing its presidential efforts here for tens of thousands.
''We feel Obama can't win the presidency without Michigan and he can't win Michigan without Macomb,'' he said. ''We're relatively small, but we're trying to be effective and relevant.''
Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, said, ''Considering that these ads have only run on television a couple of times, this group is getting a wealth of attention it would otherwise never get just by this article appearing in The New York Times.''
Macomb is where the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg helped define the term ''Reagan Democrat'' in the mid-1980s, conducting a series of polls to conclude that white, unionized workers came to believe Democrats had abandoned them for, in part, the poor and African-Americans.
Mr. Greenberg returned this year with his Democratic advocacy group, Democracy Corps, to find that racial attitudes among white workers had grown less hostile, though concerns had not disappeared.
Union officials have worked to dispel those concerns. Waiting in a car outside a Dollar Store here, a retired auto worker named Angie Christel, 78, who is white, said the union had dismissed for her the notion that Mr. Obama was Muslim. ''I thought he was Muslim until I got the letter in the mail,'' Ms. Christel said, ''and he was raised by all white people.''
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September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
McCain and Social Security
BYLINE: By JULIE BOSMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 468 words
This 30-second advertisement for Senator Barack Obama, titled ''Promise,'' began running last week in battleground states across the country.
PRODUCER Obama media team.
THE SCRIPT Mr. Obama says, ''I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message.'' Over the sound of morose piano chords, a female narrator begins: ''A broken economy. Failing banks. Unstable markets. Families struggling. To protect us in retirement, Social Security has never been more important. But John McCain has voted three times in favor of privatizing Social Security. McCain says, 'I campaigned in support of President Bush's proposal.' Cutting benefits in half. Risking Social Security on the stock market. The Bush-McCain privatization plan. Can you really afford more of the same?''
THE SCREEN The spot opens with an image of Mr. Obama and his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., followed by a headline from The Wall Street Journal, ''Crisis on Wall Street.'' Another headline, this time from The Washington Post, follows, proclaiming that the ''Dow Dives 500 Points on Banking Turmoil,'' while images of frenzied Wall Street traders are shown in the background. Then the spot shows a video of a gray-haired couple walking together, smiling, with trees in the background, only to cut abruptly to an elderly woman alone, looking somberly into the camera. At the first mention of Mr. McCain's name, he appears side by side with President Bush. Then the two are seen emerging from the White House and, finally, standing together in the Rose Garden.
ACCURACY Since this spot began running, the Obama campaign has been accused of ''scare tactics'' from the McCain campaign and criticized as falsely stating Mr. McCain's position on Social Security benefits. The Web site FactCheck.org focused on the advertisement's claim that a 2005 proposal from Mr. Bush would cut Social Security benefits in half, calling it a ''rank misrepresentation.'' In fact, Mr. Bush's proposal did call for cuts to Social Security benefits, but the cuts would be imposed gradually on future retirees, not those currently receiving benefits, and would affect the highest earners the most. According to a report by Jason Furman, who is now an economic adviser to Mr. Obama, the average worker retiring in 2075 would receive benefits 28 percent lower, not half what they would receive under the current plan.
SCORECARD The Obama campaign has taken Mr. McCain to task for peddling false information in his advertising, but the fact-checks on this spot have revealed that the Obama campaign is, in this case, guilty of the same offense. Yet this spot is consistent with Mr. Obama's attempt to link Mr. McCain to Mr. Bush whenever possible, and the tactic could be effective among voters who remain disillusioned with the last seven years.
JULIE BOSMAN
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The New York Times
September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
PINPOINT ATTACKS FOCUS ON OBAMA
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1304 words
STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich. -- Hundreds of times in the past three weeks, cable television viewers here have been the exclusive audience for two of the roughest advertisements of the political season.
One links Senator Barack Obama to the former mayor of Detroit, Kwame M. Kilpatrick, an African-American whose political career unraveled in scandal. The other features Mr. Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A Wright Jr., also black, and his now infamous sermon marked by the words ''God damn America.''
The advertisements, from a political action committee that is not connected to Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, are running only here, in Macomb County, heavily populated by white, unionized auto workers, once considered ''Reagan Democrats,'' whose votes could largely determine which candidate wins Michigan, a state vital to both sides.
The advertisements point up the unusual nature of this year's more potentially pernicious political attacks: They are not coming with the loud, nationally recognized cannon blast of the type launched by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth against Senator John Kerry in 2004, but, rather, as more stealthy, narrowly aimed rifle shots from smaller groups armed with incendiary material.
Mr. McCain has at times been a target of over-the-top attacks from outside groups, such as a recent advertisement from the liberal group Brave New Pac, based in California, that suggested his time in a Vietnamese prison ill-affected his ability to be president; the Internet was filled with various unsubstantiated and discredited rumors about his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, immediately after he named her last month.
But the more explosive charges from outside groups against Mr. Obama have often drawn closer scrutiny this year for their volume and the cultural and racial sensitivities they tend to touch, and, occasionally, seek to exploit.
In Mr. Obama's case, the messages have frequently sought to paint him as foreign, like the chain e-mail messages sent for months to Jewish areas of Florida, suburban Philadelphia and other swing states that portray Mr. Obama as Muslim (he is Christian). This week, a hate group calling itself the League of American Patriots distributed fliers to as many as 50 homes in Roxbury, a mostly white town in northern New Jersey, portraying Mr. Obama as Osama Bin Laden and including language that was derisive of black people.
The Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks extremist groups, said the fliers, initially reported by The Star-Ledger in Newark, were the first overtly racist printed tracts of their kind this election season.
The advertisements running here against Mr. Obama come from a group called Freedom's Defense Fund, a political action committee based in Washington that was formed four years ago and raises money from conservatives around the country. The advertisements have stood out because of the group's connections -- including to its paid consultant, Jerome S. Corsi, the author of the highly negative, largely discredited political biography of Mr. Obama, ''Obama Nation'' -- and what local critics say are their racial overtones.
''That's all they are -- race oriented,'' said Ed Bruley, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Macomb. ''I think some people will be affected by it, others will see it for what it is.''
It is a view shared by Democratic leaders, including Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who, in a recent interview with MSNBC, said of the advertising campaign, ''The fact that it is being run in a predominantly white suburb tells you that there is an explicit effort to try to divide people by race.''
Todd Zirkle, the executive director of Freedom's Defense Fund, said race had ''zero'' to do with the spots. ''That's the standard retort when you want to say 'Don't listen to these people,' '' Mr. Zirkle said.
He said the group's intention was to show Mr. Obama's affiliations -- although Mr. Obama and Mr. Kilpatrick were never known to be close.
He said coming spots would highlight Mr. Obama's ties to two white men, the developer Antoin Rezko, a former financial backer of Mr. Obama's who has been convicted of fraud, and to the Weather Underground founder William Ayers, with whom Mr. Obama worked on an education commission in Illinois and whose past Mr. Obama has repudiated.
Mr. Zirkle said a fifth spot would highlight Mr. Obama's supposed support for the Kenyan prime minister, the opposition leader Raila Odinga. Mr. Zirkle did not share that script, but Mr. Corsi's book asserts, without substantiation, that Mr. Obama has been a close supporter of the African leader. Mr. Obama remained neutral in the Kenyan elections.
Officials with Freedom's Defense Fund, which gives Mr. Corsi's book to its donors, said they paid Mr. Corsi only to help write fund-raising appeals. Federal returns show he was paid $15,000 as a fund-raising consultant. But the details of his book provide a thread that runs through several of the anti-Obama groups.
One of them is the National Campaign Fund, a group directed by Floyd Brown, who produced the Willie Horton attack ads against Gov. Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts in the 1988 race. An advertisement Mr. Brown hopes to run against Mr. Obama this fall -- and now on his group's Web site -- cites Mr. Corsi's book in trying to paint Mr. Obama as a Muslim.
Mr. Brown said in an interview that he had spoken with Mr. Corsi, whom he said he has known ''for years,'' but Mr. Corsi is not listed as a formal consultant. Federal filings show that Mr. Brown's group has spent more than $60,000 for a direct mail campaign, the content of which he would not share.
Disputed claims that Mr. Corsi has made about Mr. Obama's abortion stance have dovetailed with those of a group that recently ran a commercial in Dayton, Ohio, accusing Mr. Obama of supporting ''infanticide'' (he does not).
The group, the Black Republican PAC, has several connections to the Freedom Defense Fund. They share the same treasurer, Scott B. MacKenzie, who had also worked on Ronald Reagan's presidential campaigns in 1980 and 1984, as well as those of Jack Kemp and Patrick J. Buchanan. Mr. MacKenzie's office is located in the direct mail firm working with both groups, BMW Direct, whose chief operating officer, Michael Centanni, is also the chairman of the defense fund.
Mr. Centanni said he has no connection to Mr. McCain's campaign. He said Freedom's Defense Fund, with relatively scant resources to spread nationally, decided it could have the most impact by focusing its presidential efforts here for tens of thousands.
''We feel Obama can't win the presidency without Michigan and he can't win Michigan without Macomb,'' he said. ''We're relatively small, but we're trying to be effective and relevant.''
Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, said, ''Considering that these ads have only run on television a couple of times, this group is getting a wealth of attention it would otherwise never get just by this article appearing in The New York Times.''
Macomb is where the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg helped define the term ''Reagan Democrat'' in the mid-1980s, conducting a series of polls to conclude that white, unionized workers came to believe Democrats had abandoned them for, in part, the poor and African-Americans.
Mr. Greenberg returned this year with his Democratic advocacy group, Democracy Corps, to find that racial attitudes among white workers had grown less hostile, though concerns had not disappeared.
Union officials have worked to dispel those concerns. Waiting in a car outside a Dollar Store here, a retired auto worker named Angie Christel, 78, who is white, said the union had dismissed for her the notion that Mr. Obama was Muslim. ''I thought he was Muslim until I got the letter in the mail,'' Ms. Christel said, ''and he was raised by all white people.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: March 24, 2011
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The New York Times
September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
PINPOINT ATTACKS FOCUS ON OBAMA
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1304 words
STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich. -- Hundreds of times in the past three weeks, cable television viewers here have been the exclusive audience for two of the roughest advertisements of the political season.
One links Senator Barack Obama to the former mayor of Detroit, Kwame M. Kilpatrick, an African-American whose political career unraveled in scandal. The other features Mr. Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A Wright Jr., also black, and his now infamous sermon marked by the words ''God damn America.''
The advertisements, from a political action committee that is not connected to Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, are running only here, in Macomb County, heavily populated by white, unionized auto workers, once considered ''Reagan Democrats,'' whose votes could largely determine which candidate wins Michigan, a state vital to both sides.
The advertisements point up the unusual nature of this year's more potentially pernicious political attacks: They are not coming with the loud, nationally recognized cannon blast of the type launched by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth against Senator John Kerry in 2004, but, rather, as more stealthy, narrowly aimed rifle shots from smaller groups armed with incendiary material.
Mr. McCain has at times been a target of over-the-top attacks from outside groups, such as a recent advertisement from the liberal group Brave New Pac, based in California, that suggested his time in a Vietnamese prison ill-affected his ability to be president; the Internet was filled with various unsubstantiated and discredited rumors about his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, immediately after he named her last month.
But the more explosive charges from outside groups against Mr. Obama have often drawn closer scrutiny this year for their volume and the cultural and racial sensitivities they tend to touch, and, occasionally, seek to exploit.
In Mr. Obama's case, the messages have frequently sought to paint him as foreign, like the chain e-mail messages sent for months to Jewish areas of Florida, suburban Philadelphia and other swing states that portray Mr. Obama as Muslim (he is Christian). This week, a hate group calling itself the League of American Patriots distributed fliers to as many as 50 homes in Roxbury, a mostly white town in northern New Jersey, portraying Mr. Obama as Osama Bin Laden and including language that was derisive of black people.
The Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks extremist groups, said the fliers, initially reported by The Star-Ledger in Newark, were the first overtly racist printed tracts of their kind this election season.
The advertisements running here against Mr. Obama come from a group called Freedom's Defense Fund, a political action committee based in Washington that was formed four years ago and raises money from conservatives around the country. The advertisements have stood out because of the group's connections -- including to its paid consultant, Jerome S. Corsi, the author of the highly negative, largely discredited political biography of Mr. Obama, ''Obama Nation'' -- and what local critics say are their racial overtones.
''That's all they are -- race oriented,'' said Ed Bruley, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Macomb. ''I think some people will be affected by it, others will see it for what it is.''
It is a view shared by Democratic leaders, including Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who, in a recent interview with MSNBC, said of the advertising campaign, ''The fact that it is being run in a predominantly white suburb tells you that there is an explicit effort to try to divide people by race.''
Todd Zirkle, the executive director of Freedom's Defense Fund, said race had ''zero'' to do with the spots. ''That's the standard retort when you want to say 'Don't listen to these people,' '' Mr. Zirkle said.
He said the group's intention was to show Mr. Obama's affiliations -- although Mr. Obama and Mr. Kilpatrick were never known to be close.
He said coming spots would highlight Mr. Obama's ties to two white men, the developer Antoin Rezko, a former financial backer of Mr. Obama's who has been convicted of fraud, and to the Weather Underground founder William Ayers, with whom Mr. Obama worked on an education commission in Illinois and whose past Mr. Obama has repudiated.
Mr. Zirkle said a fifth spot would highlight Mr. Obama's supposed support for the Kenyan prime minister, the opposition leader Raila Odinga. Mr. Zirkle did not share that script, but Mr. Corsi's book asserts, without substantiation, that Mr. Obama has been a close supporter of the African leader. Mr. Obama remained neutral in the Kenyan elections.
Officials with Freedom's Defense Fund, which gives Mr. Corsi's book to its donors, said they paid Mr. Corsi only to help write fund-raising appeals. Federal returns show he was paid $15,000 as a fund-raising consultant. But the details of his book provide a thread that runs through several of the anti-Obama groups.
One of them is the National Campaign Fund, a group directed by Floyd Brown, who produced the Willie Horton attack ads against Gov. Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts in the 1988 race. An advertisement Mr. Brown hopes to run against Mr. Obama this fall -- and now on his group's Web site -- cites Mr. Corsi's book in trying to paint Mr. Obama as a Muslim.
Mr. Brown said in an interview that he had spoken with Mr. Corsi, whom he said he has known ''for years,'' but Mr. Corsi is not listed as a formal consultant. Federal filings show that Mr. Brown's group has spent more than $60,000 for a direct mail campaign, the content of which he would not share.
Disputed claims that Mr. Corsi has made about Mr. Obama's abortion stance have dovetailed with those of a group that recently ran a commercial in Dayton, Ohio, accusing Mr. Obama of supporting ''infanticide'' (he does not).
The group, the Black Republican PAC, has several connections to the Freedom Defense Fund. They share the same treasurer, Scott B. MacKenzie, who had also worked on Ronald Reagan's presidential campaigns in 1980 and 1984, as well as those of Jack Kemp and Patrick J. Buchanan. Mr. MacKenzie's office is located in the direct mail firm working with both groups, BMW Direct, whose chief operating officer, Michael Centanni, is also the chairman of the defense fund.
Mr. Centanni said he has no connection to Mr. McCain's campaign. He said Freedom's Defense Fund, with relatively scant resources to spread nationally, decided it could have the most impact by focusing its presidential efforts here for tens of thousands.
''We feel Obama can't win the presidency without Michigan and he can't win Michigan without Macomb,'' he said. ''We're relatively small, but we're trying to be effective and relevant.''
Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, said, ''Considering that these ads have only run on television a couple of times, this group is getting a wealth of attention it would otherwise never get just by this article appearing in The New York Times.''
Macomb is where the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg helped define the term ''Reagan Democrat'' in the mid-1980s, conducting a series of polls to conclude that white, unionized workers came to believe Democrats had abandoned them for, in part, the poor and African-Americans.
Mr. Greenberg returned this year with his Democratic advocacy group, Democracy Corps, to find that racial attitudes among white workers had grown less hostile, though concerns had not disappeared.
Union officials have worked to dispel those concerns. Waiting in a car outside a Dollar Store here, a retired auto worker named Angie Christel, 78, who is white, said the union had dismissed for her the notion that Mr. Obama was Muslim. ''I thought he was Muslim until I got the letter in the mail,'' Ms. Christel said, ''and he was raised by all white people.''
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: March 24, 2011
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The Washington Post
September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Met 2 Edition
The Words Left Unspoken in the Bailout Debate
BYLINE: Steven Pearlstein
SECTION: FINANCIAL; Pg. D01
LENGTH: 946 words
In all that's been said in recent days about the latest proposals to rescue the financial system, two words have been conspicuously absent.
They are the words that Americans need to hear before they commit $2,300 for every man, woman and child to rescue the financial system.
They are the words we need to hear before taxpayers are put in the position of rescuing arrogant and overpaid financiers from the full consequences of their bad bets and misguided decisions.
Most of all, they are the words that elected senators and representatives need to hear before they entrust the secretary of the Treasury with extraordinary power and discretion to spend public money and actively manage the markets and the economy:
"We're sorry."
As in, "We're sorry that those of us who were supposed to be stewards of the world's deepest and most trusted capital markets have violated that trust by putting our own interests ahead of those of our customers and the country."
We've now entered the political phase of this financial crisis, in which the outcome will be determined not by the fear and greed of investors but by the hopes and anxieties of the voters. Their decision won't be based on some collective assessment of the efficacy of reverse auctions in the price discovery process, or whether it is better to prop up the market for mortgage-backed securities or inject fresh capital into the banks that are holding them.
Their decision -- our decision -- will come down to a much simpler question: We've got one last chance to fix this thing. Are we willing to put our fate once again in the hands of financiers who have already abused our trust?
And that's where the two magic words come in. In Japan, great ritual accompanies such apologies, which are viewed as the first step in fixing a problem and restoring frayed relations. Here, by contrast, corporate apologies are viewed as unnecessary concessions to business and political adversaries and dangerous ammunition in the hands of prosecutors and plaintiffs lawyers.
You'll have to take it from me that it's probably not a good idea to put in legislation a requirement that any financial institution that wants to participate in the rescue program has to cap executive compensation at $400,000 a year -- the same as the president -- and eliminate all severance pay from executive contracts.
On the other hand, it would certainly capture people's attention if the heads of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley were to stand before the cameras in the Capitol rotunda, apologize for letting down their investors and their employees and voluntarily offer to suspend their extravagant compensation schemes until the crisis has passed and new regulations are in place.
Because all financial institutions will benefit from a federal program to jump-start the markets in asset-backed securities, whether they participate in the program or not, it is hard to figure out which companies should be required to give taxpayers some of the "up side" if and when the markets recover.
But it would surely make it easier for members of Congress to defend this program to their angry constituents if the industry could express its appreciation for the government's extraordinary effort by voluntarily offering the Treasury an option to buy 5 percent of each company's stock at today's depressed prices at some time in the future.
Some Democrats are demanding that the bailout plan have a provision allowing any homeowner facing foreclosure to file for bankruptcy and get a bankruptcy judge to reduce the mortgage to whatever she can afford. Again, another bad idea. But what's to prevent the industry from agreeing to engage in a mediated workout process with any borrower facing foreclosure?
These are the kinds of things that responsible, honorable people do when they screw up and are forced to ask their neighbors for help. They don't point the finger at greedy short-sellers and misguided regulators for the disaster that occurred on their watch. They don't hire lobbyists to see how they can tweak the bailout to be even sweeter for them than it already is. And they certainly don't threaten to bring on financial Armageddon if people refuse to help them out.
What responsible, honorable people do is apologize for their mistakes, promise that it won't happen again and vow that they'll make it up to us once the crisis has passed. But in the past year, we've not heard any of that from the titans of Wall Street.
Political systems, communities, markets all share one common characteristic -- at their core, they all require a level of trust among the participants if they are going to work. In recent years, we have allowed that trust to erode to the point that our political system is paralyzed by partisan bickering and communities are fractured into enclaves of race and class. Now markets are collapsing because investors realize they have been misled by corporate executives, investment banks, ratings agencies and regulators.
As a country, there is an urgent need to rebuild that trust. In different ways, that is what both the McCain and Obama campaigns are all about. And it is the same challenge that now faces us in this financial crisis. At some level, we all know that we've driven the economy and the financial system into a ditch and that we're going to have to spend some money to get out of it. But until Wall Street can muster the decency, the humility and the good sense to acknowledge its colossal screw-up, it shouldn't be surprising that Americans are balking at writing the check.
Steven Pearlstein will host a Web discussion at 11 a.m. today at washingtonpost.com. He can be reached at pearlsteins@washpost.com
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The Washington Post
September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
Talked-About Ads Were Seldom Aired;
Campaigns Capitalize on Controversy
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 493 words
Sen. John McCain received considerable publicity for a television ad accusing his Democratic opponent of having "lashed out at Sarah Palin, dismissed her as good-looking . . . then desperately called Sarah Palin a liar. How disrespectful."
In the two weeks after the Republican convention, the commercial aired seven times.
Sen. Barack Obama drew substantial media attention for a spot declaring: "John McCain is hardly a maverick. . . . Sarah Palin's no maverick, either. She was for the 'Bridge to Nowhere' before she was against it. Politicians lying about their records." During the same period, that commercial aired eight times.
In the two-week period that ended Sunday, the McCain campaign released 25 ads, 12 of which aired fewer than 25 times. The Obama campaign released 28 ads, 11 of which aired fewer than 25 times.
"They've smartly figured out that there's news of the day, and by feeding the content beast that is cable news and the blogosphere, they're getting out their unfiltered take on the news of the day," said Evan Tracey of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which compiled the figures. Given the media's hunger for controversy, he said, "the campaigns are the enabling girlfriend."
By contrast, McCain's most frequently aired spot during this period, casting him and Alaska Gov. Palin as the "original mavericks," aired 15,938 times. Obama's top spot, detailing the lobbying records of senior McCain aides, ran 14,809 times.
It is an open secret by now that both campaigns are flooding the market with what amount to video press releases. The phantom spots receive enormous amounts of free airtime, particularly on cable news channels, and are the subject of news stories and "ad watch" features in newspapers. Journalists have no way of knowing in advance which spots will involve a substantial buy and which will not.
Spokesmen for McCain and Obama would not comment on the practice.
McCain's best investment may have been the spot accusing Obama of supporting sex education for kindergarteners in Illinois, although the legislation called for "age-appropriate" teaching. It aired 43 times during the two-week period. A hotly debated commercial charging Obama with taking advice from former Fannie Mae chief executive Franklin D. Raines aired three times. And an ad calling Obama's "lipstick on a pig" comment an insult to Palin never ran on television.
Obama made headlines with a spot calling McCain out of touch because he didn't know how to use a computer and doesn't send e-mail. It aired six times. A commercial citing media criticism in accusing McCain of running the "sleaziest ads ever, truly vile" aired 19 times. And a spot charging McCain with dismissing the wage gap between men and women ran twice.
The pattern is that campaigns are putting the least money behind their most slashing spots, the kind that tend to drive news coverage. "The stuff they're putting weight behind is not all that tough," Tracey said.
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The Washington Post
September 24, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
McCain Aide's Firm Was Paid Recently;
Davis Said Work for Freddie Had Ceased
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A06
LENGTH: 662 words
The lobbying firm founded and co-owned by Rick Davis, the campaign manager for Sen. John McCain's White House bid, received payments from Freddie Mac in recent months, despite assertions by Davis earlier this week that the firm's work for the mortgage giant had ended three years ago.
An industry source told The Washington Post that Davis's firm, Davis Manafort, continued to receive monthly payments in the $15,000 range from Freddie Mac until very recently, confirming an ongoing financial relationship reported last night in several other publications.
The source said Davis Manafort was paid for being on retainer to Freddie Mac but did little actual work after early 2007.
Two unidentified sources told the newspaper Roll Call yesterday that Davis Manafort is still receiving payments from the mortgage giant, one of the financial institutions at the center of the nation's housing crisis. The New York Times reported last night that the payments stopped last month.
Both reports appear to contradict Davis's comments to reporters on a conference call this week.
Before working on the McCain campaign, Davis had served as the president of the Homeownership Alliance, a group created to lobby for mortgage companies and other groups on behalf of homeownership.
"I have had a severed leave of absence from my firm for 18 months," he said Monday. "I have taken no compensation from my company, and our work for the Homeownership Alliance had ended about a year, year-and-a-half before that even started. So it's been over three years since there's been any activity in this area and since I've had any contact with those folks."
Davis has suspended his salary from Davis Manafort, but, as an equity partner in the firm, he continues to have an financial stake in its success.
A Times article this week said Davis received $2 million in compensation for his work at the Homeownership Alliance. But Davis said Monday that he had done no lobbying and dismissed the article.
"I was the public face of an organization that promoted homeownership for many years," Davis told reporters. "Sure, I have relationships there." But at the same time he was serving as a consultant to the alliance, Davis said, McCain was pursuing more regulation on the mortgage giants, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Campaign officials declined to make Davis available Tuesday night to answer questions about the payments.
The McCain campaign has no knowledge of the business arrangements that Davis Manafort has with clients, spokesman Tucker Bounds said. "What this campaign has made clear is that we are not commenting on an outside business that is unrelated to the daily activities of this campaign," Bounds said.
And he insisted that McCain did no favors for the housing industry because of any work that Davis did on behalf of the corporations or the alliance.
"It's pretty clear that the same people who ran Fannie and Freddie into the ground and stuck the taxpayers with the bill are now attacking John McCain, one of the few people in Washington who has ever stood up to them," Bounds said. "That shouldn't surprise anyone -- it's business as usual in Washington."
The news about Davis comes as both campaigns are trying to link their rivals to the failed mortgage institutions.
McCain has begun to run television commercials that link Sen. Barack Obama to two former chief executives of the once-venerated housing lenders. One ad ties Obama to Franklin Raines, who now denies comments he made to The Post this summer about sharing housing and economic advice with the senator from Illinois.
The other McCain ad links Obama to Jim Johnson, who was briefly in charge of Obama's vice presidential selection process before resigning amid public concern about his ties to the housing crisis.
Obama has attempted to link the senator from Arizona to the mortgage giants. Democrats have sent out information suggesting that almost two dozen people affiliated with the McCain campaign have ties to the housing firms.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Charles Dharapak -- Associated Press; Sen. John McCain waves as he is joined by Sen. Joseph Lieberman, left, campaign manager Rick Davis, second from right, and son Jack McCain.
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The New York Times
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Obama's Chicago, in McCain's Eyes
BYLINE: By JULIE BOSMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 24
LENGTH: 466 words
Titled ''Chicago Machine,'' this 30-second advertisement for Senator John McCain is currently running online. The McCain campaign said it would run on television nationally.
PRODUCER McCain media team.
THE SCRIPT A narrator says: ''Barack Obama. Born of the corrupt Chicago political machine.'' A video clip then shows Mr. Obama saying, ''In terms of my toughness, look, first of all, I come from Chicago.'' The narrator continues: ''His economic adviser, William Daley -- lobbyist. Mayor's brother. His money man, Tony Rezko -- client, patron, convicted felon. His 'political godfather,' Emil Jones -- under ethical cloud. His governor, Rod Blagojevich. A legacy of federal and state investigations. With friends like that, Obama is not ready to lead.''
ON THE SCREEN The spot opens with an image of a dark television screen, which then begins playing a clip of Mr. Obama on MSNBC, his face shrouded in shadows. Then it shows silhouettes of four men, who are revealed one by one to be William M. Daley, the brother of Mayor Richard M. Daley of Chicago; Antoin Rezko, an Obama fund-raiser who was convicted of fraud; Emil Jones Jr., the president of the Illinois Senate; and Rod R. Blagojevich, the governor of Illinois. The advertisement concludes with a shot of Mr. Obama next to a television screen reading, ''Not Ready to Lead.''
ACCURACY Mr. Obama has ties to all of the men named. And, yes, Mr. Rezko and Mr. Jones, both longtime fixtures in Chicago politics, indeed helped propel his career when he was a state senator. Mr. Jones has been under fire recently for holding up a high-profile ethics reform bill in the Illinois Senate, though it is unclear if that is the ''ethical cloud'' referred to (last week, Mr. Obama called to press him to allow the bill to pass). And yes, Mr. Obama knows Mr. Daley, a lobbyist and brother of the Chicago mayor, and Mr. Blagojevich, who has been investigated by state and federal authorities. The question is how strong and significant those ties are. The advertisement does not address that, using innuendo to imply the ties are deep and sinister. But while the Obama campaign has called it a ''false, gratuitous attack,'' there is nothing that is outright wrong.
SCORECARD How well this advertisement succeeds in frightening voters about Mr. Obama depends upon how much dark shadows, black silhouettes or his mere knowledge of these men make them quake. It also depends upon if they are satisfied by Mr. Obama's explanations of his relationship with Mr. Rezko, his most dubious tie, after numerous newspaper articles and Republican campaign memorandums have addressed their entwined pasts. Most of all, it depends on whether voters consider ''Chicago-style politics'' something of myth and exaggeration, or something to be feared. JULIE BOSMAN
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The New York Times
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Banking Deregulation and McCain's Health Plan
BYLINE: By MICHAEL FALCONE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 24
LENGTH: 457 words
Titled ''Article,'' this 30-second advertisement for Senator Barack Obama will be broadcast on national cable television, according to his campaign.
PRODUCER Obama media team.
THE SCRIPT A narrator says: ''We've seen what Bush-McCain policies have done to our economy. Now John McCain wants to do the same to our health care. McCain just published an article praising Wall Street deregulation. Said he'd reduce oversight of the health insurance industry, too. Just 'as we have done over the last decade in banking.' Increasing costs and threatening coverage. A prescription for disaster. John McCain. A risk we just can't afford to take.''
ON THE SCREEN The advertisement opens with a split-screen image: on top is a photograph of Senator John McCain with President Bush. On the bottom are the logos of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae, all symbols of the crisis on Wall Street. The spot attributes the sour economy to ''Bush-McCain policies,'' and then the words ''McCain wants to do the same to health care'' appear on the screen. Next is an image of an article by Mr. McCain in Contingencies magazine in which he promotes letting Americans buy health insurance across state lines, drawing a parallel to the relaxation of rules governing the banking industry. The spot ends with a photograph of Mr. Bush and Mr. McCain with the president's arm around him.
ACCURACY The advertisement makes a leap in drawing implicit parallels between Mr. McCain's health care proposals and the deregulation of the banking sector and then tying the deregulation to the financial crisis. Writing in Contingencies, Mr. McCain said, ''Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.'' While the Obama campaign is linking the ability to buy insurance across state lines to banking deregulation, the changes that allowed banks to operate across state lines were viewed by many as having benefited consumers by encouraging competition, and those changes have not been linked to the current crisis. A spokesman for Mr. McCain, Tucker Bounds, called such parallels false.
SCORECARD The advertisement successfully seizes on Mr. McCain's advocacy for less regulation at a time when financial institutions are collapsing and the government is moving to step in with a bailout estimated at $700 billion. But by making questionable assertions about the roots of the crisis and then making a link to Mr. McCain's health care plans, Mr. Obama opens himself to the same criticism that Mr. McCain has faced about the truthfulness of his attacks. MICHAEL FALCONE
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
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USA TODAY
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Fact checkers find rivals' ads low on truth
BYLINE: Jill Lawrence
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 13A
LENGTH: 1692 words
McCain leads with attacks packed with false assertions. Obama's strikes not much better.
WASHINGTON -- Cut through the din of this presidential campaign and you will find something new this year besides the usual record spending: candidate ads divorced from facts, and a platoon of fact checkers trying to keep up.
Veteran campaign watchers say they have never seen ads quite like some from Republican John McCain. The spots contend that Democrat Barack Obama caused high gasoline prices, called McCain running mate Sarah Palin a pig, plans to raise taxes on the middle class and -- in an ad called Education that's emblematic of the trend -- wants to teach graphic sex to kindergartners. All the claims are false.
Education "is a terribly misleading ad, designed to deceive voters," says Brooks Jackson, director of the non-partisan Factcheck.org.
Obama, of course, is running plenty of his own negative ads. In a reversal of earlier weeks, the Wisconsin Advertising Project says he aired more of them than McCain in the week following the GOP convention, 77%-56%.
Some of Obama's assertions have drawn censure, such as that McCain favors a 100-year war in Iraq (McCain was talking about a peacetime presence) or has plans that would halve Social Security benefits ("a gross distortion," The Washington Post said Monday).
So far, several analysts say, most of Obama's ads mislead and misrepresent in familiar ways -- twisting a statistic or a snippet of video to make a questionable point, for instance. They say McCain has been in a different league, epitomized by Education.
"McCain is making no effort to be truthful," says Farhad Manjoo, author of True Enough: Learning to Live in a Post-Fact Society. "The lies aren't routine political lies where they stretch the truth of what a candidate might have said, or take a candidate out of context."
PolitiFact.com, a fact-check team from the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times and Congressional Quarterly, rates 22 statements and ads from McCain as barely true, 23 as false and six as "pants on fire" (absurdly, ridiculously false) out of 117 analyzed. For Obama, the score is 14 barely true, 18 false and one "pants on fire" out of 120 analyzed.
Anatomy of an ad
Education is the ad that has come to crystallize the difference between 2008 and earlier years.
McCain's campaign says the spot was a response to What Kind? -- a Sept. 9 Obama ad that said: "John McCain voted to cut education funding, against accountability standards. He even proposed abolishing the Department of Education. And John McCain's economic plan gives $200 billion more to special interests while taking money away from public schools."
Education Week's Alyson Klein called What Kind? misleading on accountability and arguably fair on school funds.
McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds says the funding charge was offensive and unsupported. He says he tracked it to a National Education Association study "based on our proposals to freeze discretionary spending, ignoring the fact that John McCain had pledged to fully fund the No Child Left Behind Act. It was a blatant falsehood. It was a lie."
McCain struck back later that day with Education. It proved to be a tipping point. Reporters, columnists, editorial writers and watchdog groups produced fact checks pronouncing it beyond the pale even by the elastic standards of political advertising.
"It was a remarkable ad because it was wrong in so many ways," PolitiFact.com editor Bill Adair says. Its rating was a mix of "barely true" and "pants on fire."
The script: "Education Week says Obama 'hasn't made a significant mark on education.' That he's 'elusive' on accountability. A 'staunch defender of the existing public school monopoly.' Obama's one accomplishment? Legislation to teach 'comprehensive sex education' to kindergartners. Learning about sex before learning to read? Barack Obama. Wrong on education. Wrong for your family."
Only the first quote is from Education Week. It's accurate, but the paper also praised Obama's work on teacher quality and early childhood education and said McCain didn't have much of an education record either.
Furthermore, Obama did not sponsor or co-sponsor the 2003 bill, and it was never enacted.
Bounds declined to discuss the ad or make the McCain ad team available. GOP media consultant Alex Castellanos, who did not make the ad but is familiar with it, says the bill lowered the age for sexual education from sixth-grade to kindergarten. "McCain was right about sex ed before learning to read. That was true. Obama voted for sex ed" in kindergarten, he says.
But did Obama vote for "comprehensive sex education" in kindergarten? The bill repeatedly said instruction should be age appropriate, with parents able to pull their kids out if desired.
The bill's sponsor, now-retired Illinois state senator Carol Ronen, a Democrat, did not return a call for comment. Pam Sutherland, a legislative expert at the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council, says proponents made clear in hearings that age appropriate for grades K-3 meant teaching kids about bad touching, so they could protect themselves against predators. "That's what is generally taught" at that age, she says. That's also how Obama described the bill in 2004.
On ABC's The View, Joy Behar said to McCain, "We know these ads are lies. But you say 'I approve these messages.' Do you really approve them?"
"Actually, they are not lies," McCain responded.
For all the ruckus, Education ran only 36 times in smaller markets, mostly on one day -- Sept. 10. Total outlay by the McCain campaign: Slightly more than $30,000, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group.
In that, it was typical of many ads this year -- Web-only or barely run. CMAG ad tracker Evan Tracey calls such ads "tomatoes for food-fight TV" and the blogosphere. Like Education, he says, an Obama ad depicting McCain as a relic who doesn't use e-mail "almost never aired."
A bad year for accuracy
Darrell West, author of Air Wars: Television Advertising in Election Campaigns, says 2008 is shaping up as "much worse in terms of factual inaccuracy" than the heavily negative years of 1964 and 1988. That even includes the provocative Willie Horton ad a conservative group ran against Democrat Michael Dukakis in '88. "There was a case of this convicted felon who, while out on furlough, did terrible deeds. ... Although the ad was racially tinged, it was factually accurate," West says.
This year he says "McCain has been a much worse violator of the facts than Obama has been. There are statements that can be disproven that still are appearing ... in paid advertisements."
McCain ads on Obama's tax plan are a case in point. Factcheck.org has scored McCain for "multiple false and misleading claims" about the plan, citing studies that show families making under $250,000 would fare better with Obama. The group says McCain is engaged in a months-long "pattern of misrepresentation," most recently with a new ad late last week.
McCain also has the distinction of misusing Factcheck itself in an ad. "Those attacks on Palin that we debunked didn't come from Obama," the group protested.
Obama is edging into McCain territory, Manjoo and others say, with a new Spanish-language ad that suggests McCain is hostile to immigrants, ties him to remarks from conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh that some found offensive and quotes Limbaugh out of context to boot.
"There goes Barack Obama, down into the deceptive-campaign-ad gutter with John McCain," The New York Times editorialized Friday. The ad earned Obama his first "pants on fire" rating from PolitiFact.
Doug Bailey, a retired Republican admaker who founded the political tipsheet Hotline, says outside groups did the dirty work in past elections. "Now you have the candidates authorizing ads run by the campaigns themselves which are just blatantly false," he says. Fact checking is important, he says, but may not be able to compete with the ads.
Manjoo argues in his book that partisan blogs, websites and cable shows keep people in their comfort zones and make it easier for politicians to lie. "We'll see in this election whether fact checking or lying wins out," he says. "If McCain does well with these types of ads, it will give people license to do this in the future."
McCain's 'Education' ad: A case study
Republican presidential nominee John McCain's ad called Education has become Exhibit A in a campaign some analysts and fact checkers say is setting new lows for truth in political advertising. A close look at what the ad said, where and when it aired and how its claims hold up.
Ad text
"Education Week says Obama 'hasn't made a significant mark on education.' That he's 'elusive' on accountability. A 'staunch defender of the existing public school monopoly.' Obama's one accomplishment? Legislation to teach 'comprehensive sex education' to kindergartners. Learning about sex before learning to read? Barack Obama. Wrong on education. Wrong for your family."
A closer look
Text: "Education Week says Obama 'hasn't made a significant mark on education.'
Reality check: The publication said he had focused on other issues as a state and U.S. senator, but it praised his work on early childhood education and improving teacher quality. It also said McCain "doesn't have much of a record" either.
Text: "Obama's one accomplishment?"
Reality check: Obama was not a sponsor or co-sponsor of the 2003 bill, and it never passed.
Text: "Legislation to teach 'comprehensive sex education' to kindergartners."
Reality check: The bill repeatedly said that "comprehensive" instruction in grades K-12 was to be "age appropriate." Planned Parenthood's Pam Sutherland said testimony in hearings made clear that for K-3, that meant learning to protect against predators.
When and where the ad ran
The ad aired 36 times between Sept. 10 and Sept. 16 and is now out of rotation. It aired:
*2 times on national cable
*12 times in Sioux City, Iowa
*4 times in Grand Rapids, Mich.
*10 times in Rochester, Minn.
*2 times in Youngstown, Ohio
*2 times in Pittsburgh
*2 times in Wausau, Wis.
*2 times in Wheeling, W.Va.
Sources: Campaign Media Analysis Group, McCain campaign
Reported by Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
LOAD-DATE: September 23, 2008
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USA TODAY
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
McCain leads Obama in race to distort each other's records
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 22A
LENGTH: 827 words
Presidential campaigns have never been genteel debates over policy disagreements, but what's really disappointing about this one is that candidates who promised that this would somehow be a better and more substantive discussion have given in to the same imperatives that turned other campaigns ugly, abandoning honest attacks for distortion and outright falsehoods.
Don't take our word for it. Truth-squadding candidates' assertions has become a full-time business for journalists and has raised the profile of at least two straight-shooting websites -- FactCheck.org and PolitiFact.com -- that measure candidates' statements against the facts.
A fair reading of all the fact-checking shows that both Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama have stepped over the line dozens of times and keep doing it. That same fair reading suggests that while both nominees are guilty of sometimes outrageous falsehoods, McCain -- who has prided himself on "straight talk" and took the high road when scurrilous attacks helped cost him the GOP presidential nomination in 2000 -- has crossed the line more often and more egregiously.
This isn't about ending negative advertising, which is sometimes helpful. It's perfectly fair for a candidate to point out his opponent's deficiencies. McCain hit Obama for taking more campaign money from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac than almost any other member of Congress when those two institutions were trying to avoid stricter regulation. The money came not from the firms but their employees, but it's still a fair shot.
What's not fair, and what demeans the candidates when they do it, are statements that flatly misrepresent their opponent's positions or their own. Fact-checking websites pride themselves on neutrality and avoid comparing the candidates' mendacity, but we toted up Politifact.com's ratings and found McCain beats Obama about 5 to 3.
Five of the worst from both candidates:
*McCain on Obama and taxes. McCain has repeatedly implied that Obama wants to raise taxes on every taxpayer. A total distortion, fact-checkers say, noting that Obama would actually cut taxes on low- and middle-income people more than McCain would. Obama would raise taxes -- but on the sort of upper-income people (such as families making more than $250,000 a year) who would get the biggest tax breaks from McCain.
*Obama on McCain and Social Security. Obama distorted the effects of President Bush's proposal to partially privatize Social Security (which McCain supported), charging that it would cut retirees' benefits in half and implying that it would leave current retirees' benefits to the mercy of the stock market. FactCheck.org points out that no current retirees would have been affected by the Bush plan, and even future retirees wouldn't have had their benefits cut in half.
*McCain on Obama and sex education. A widely derided McCain TV spot charges that Obama supported sex education for children as young as kindergarteners. Fact-checkers dismantling the ad's script found little if anything that was true. Obama supported warning kids about predators and backed an opt-out provision for parents.
*Obama on McCain and immigration. Politifact.com awards Obama his only "pants on fire" lie (McCain gets six) for a Spanish-language TV spot that grossly distorts McCain's immigration position by falsely tying McCain to out-of-context comments from talk radio host Rush Limbaugh. McCain favored a bipartisan approach that Congress defeated.
*McCain on Palin. McCain says his vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, never sought earmarks as governor of Alaska. In fact, her administration sought 83 earmarks worth $453 million for 2008 and 2009. McCain and Palin both say she rejected the infamous "bridge to nowhere" earmark. In fact, she supported the bridge until it lost support in Washington. The state kept the money anyway.
What's worse than being ignorant of the truth is being indifferent to it -- repeating falsehoods after they've been pointed out. After McCain's claims are revealed to be false (earmarks and taxes, for example), he often repeats them anyway. Obama has changed some of his false assertions, though not all.
Before this campaign began, both candidates had records of avoiding the low road, and with so many differences between them, they shouldn't need to travel that path. When they do, they're essentially saying that they can't win on merit.
The McCain campaign declined to provide an opposing view to this editorial.
Political Pinocchios
PolitiFact.com rates candidates' statements on a six-category scale from "true" to "pants on fire" falsehoods. Their analysis suggests that while both presidential candidates have stretched or ignored the truth, Republican John McCain has done that more often than Democrat Barack Obama:
*Barely true
McCain -- 22
Obama -- 14
*False
McCain -- 23
Obama -- 18
*Pants on fire
McCain -- 6
Obama -- 1
Source: PolitiFact.com, a joint venture of the St. Petersburg Times and CQ.
LOAD-DATE: September 23, 2008
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The Washington Post
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
Met 2 Edition
A New Landscape, the Same Proposals
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1293 words
As the scale of the government's intervention transforms the nation's fiscal landscape, neither presidential candidate seemed ready yesterday to readjust his campaign promises to match a changing reality that could push the federal budget deficit next year toward $1 trillion.
Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain indicated they will not stand in the way of the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue of U.S. financial markets, and each offered his own proposals for making it more palatable to voters: Obama laid out a plan to overhaul federal contracting and save an estimated $40 billion a year, while McCain proposed an oversight board to monitor the bailout.
But advisers in both campaigns said they are not about to shelve their own plans to get the economy back on track -- or embrace more aggressive budget-cutting measures -- in the face of a short-term surge in the federal deficit.
"This is a major fiscal problem in the short run, but it doesn't alter the long-run fiscal picture," said Jason Furman, Obama's economic policy coordinator. "The biggest challenge we face in our economy over the next year is getting it moving again, creating jobs and relieving the squeeze on families. That's our overriding priority for the next year."
Said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's chief economic policy adviser and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office: "In terms of the numbers, obviously the landscape has changed. In terms of the [underlying] challenge, no, I don't think there is much change."
Given the drama on Wall Street, economists of all economic stripes say the candidates' reluctance to adjust to the new landscape, as well as their focus on such peripheral issues as lobbying ties to mortgage giant Fannie Mae, are turning the campaigns into a sideshow. The sheer size of the bailout could give the next president political cover to address long-festering fiscal problems, such as the burgeoning costs of Medicare and Medicaid, yet neither of the men vying for the job has shown an interest in taking advantage of it, they say.
"The U.S. fiscal situation is dramatically deteriorated from what it was," said Martin N. Baily, a former chairman of President Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers. "There is a debate which we need to have that is becoming more urgent: Our fiscal picture does not add up."
Bruce Bartlett, a Treasury official in the Reagan administration, said: "This is just a terrific opportunity for both of these guys to do a do-over. Most of these proposals were formulated when they were running to get their party's nominations. It looks ridiculous to keep peddling ideas that are no longer viable, as if nothing has changed. Then whoever is elected is at least elected on a plan that makes sense."
Even before the bailout plan was announced, the Congressional Budget Office estimated this month that the deficit for fiscal 2009 would reach $438 billion, already a record in dollar terms. If Treasury needs half the money it has sought for the bailout plan in 2009, as well as money already promised to seize Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns and the insurance giant American International Group, the deficit could approach $900 billion. As a percentage of the economy, that number would rival the highest deficits in history, recorded in the Reagan administration, said Rudolph G. Penner, another former CBO director, now at the Urban Institute.
Some, or even much, of that money could be recouped as the government tries to sell off the assets it plans to buy, but by the time the bailout is resolved, Washington will have to confront the retirement of the baby-boom generation as well as soaring Social Security and Medicare costs.
By buying the bad debt of collapsing financial firms, the government could stop panicked investors from withdrawing money, freeing up lending, boosting home sales and lifting the economy. But the current crisis, in large part, was created by a nation -- its individuals, companies and government -- living beyond its means, borrowing to prop up overconsumption. Swapping the private debt of banks and homeowners with public borrowing by the federal government changes nothing, said Douglas W. Elmendorf, a former Federal Reserve Board economist now at the Brookings Institution.
And while Obama and McCain have pledged that they would live within some fiscal constraints, neither has offered enough details about how they are going to pay for promised tax cuts, health-care plans and energy spending, said Leonard E. Burman, director of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
"Both of them would dig the hole way deeper," he said.
Campaigning yesterday in Green Bay, Wis., Obama outlined proposals to tighten federal ethics and contracting rules and bring unprecedented scrutiny to the legislative process, including through a new clearinghouse to assess corporate tax breaks.
His speech, outlining an 11-page "Plan to Reform the Greed and Excesses of Washington," built on the regulatory overhaul for the financial services industry that he proposed last week. To curb the influence of lobbyists, Obama would have all bill writing be conducted in public. Congress holds public hearings on legislation, and lawmakers debate and vote in the open, but the conference committees where final language is crafted meet mostly behind closed doors.
Obama also would create a government agency "charged with identifying recipients of corporate subsidies and evaluating the effectiveness of these subsidies in promoting growth and opportunity." All corporate tax breaks would be easily searchable on a government Web site, and if the new entity deemed a provision to be a dud, it would be targeted for elimination.
McCain, seconding calls from Democratic leaders in Congress, said yesterday that any bailout bill must include an oversight board to account for the expenditures of public money. He said that executives of financial firms receiving federal bailout money should see their salaries limited to $400,000, the highest pay of a federal worker -- in that case, the president.
"We will not solve a problem caused by poor oversight with a plan that has no oversight," McCain said at a rally in Scranton, Pa.
Beyond the speeches, much of the day continued to be consumed by the kind of attacks and counterattacks that have dominated the campaign recently.
Among the issues yesterday: the $42 million "golden parachute" that McCain economic adviser Carly Fiorina received in 2005 after being ousted from Hewlett-Packard, a new McCain campaign ad suggesting Obama was "born of the corrupt Chicago political machine," a new Obama campaign ad criticizing McCain for a news article in which he suggested opening health care to competition "as we have done over the last decade in banking," and even the New York Times' coverage of McCain.
McCain said Obama had "declined to put forth a plan" to deal with the Wall Street meltdown, an assertion that is exaggerated at best. Obama said McCain "has fought time and time again against the common-sense rules of the road that could've prevented this crisis," neglecting to mention that his new brain trust on the crisis includes two Clinton administration Treasury secretaries, Robert E. Rubin and Lawrence H. Summers, who helped negotiate the deregulation of the financial services industries in 1999.
In an interview on Friday, Rubin said the law, named after its now-retired congressional sponsors -- Phil Gramm (Tex.), a top McCain economic adviser; Jim Leach (Iowa), who heads Republicans for Obama; and Thomas J. Bliley Jr. (Va.) -- "had no impact, zero," on the current crisis.
"I would hope the two candidates would have tried to bolster confidence and stop sniping over this," Penner said.
Staff writer Michael D. Shear contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: September 23, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Gerald Herbert -- Associated Press; Sen. John McCain greets Paul Teutul Sr., center, and Paul Teutul Jr., the stars of the "American Chopper" TV show, at a rally in Media, Pa.
IMAGE; By Chris Carlson -- Associated Press; Sen. Barack Obama greets supporters after a campaign event in Green Bay, Wis., where he outlined a "Plan to Reform the Greed and Excesses of Washington."
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The Washington Post
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
Hitting Hard on Debatable Points
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THE AD
Narrator: Barack Obama. Born of the corrupt Chicago political machine.
Obama: In terms of my toughness, look, first of all, I come from Chicago.
Narrator: His economic adviser, William Daley. Lobbyist. Mayor's brother. His money man, Tony Rezko. Client. Patron. Convicted felon. His "political godfather," Emil Jones. Under ethical cloud. His governor, Rod Blagojevich. A legacy of federal and state investigations. With friends like that, Obama is not ready to lead.
ANALYSIS
This John McCain ad is mostly accurate and largely pointless.
The one serious distortion is in claiming that Barack Obama was "born" of the Chicago machine. Obama was actually an independent outsider who challenged the party establishment, both in running for the Illinois Senate and in unsuccessfully opposing U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush. Obama did use hardball tactics on occasion but was not embraced by the party apparatus until later in his career.
Three of the four names included here do no damage to the senator from Illinois and serve mainly to reinforce the impression that Obama swims with sharks. Bill Daley may be a lobbyist and the brother of Mayor Richard Daley, but he is a former commerce secretary with a solid reputation. State Sen. Emil Jones gave Obama a boost early in his career, in part by assigning him to shepherd ethics legislation through the legislature. Obama has no connection to allegations that Jones has helped some of his own family members on the state payroll. And while Blagojevich is Obama's governor -- indeed, he is the governor of Oprah Winfrey and Mike Ditka and every other Illinois resident -- he and Obama are not close politically.
Rezko is the exception, a major albatross for Obama. He was a key fundraiser for Obama and sold him a patch of land adjacent to Obama's home -- a deal that the Democratic nominee has called a "boneheaded mistake." But the Chicago businessman, who was convicted of corruption charges in June, was not under investigation at the time of these dealings.
While the ad is a stretch, McCain is trying to tie Obama to the specter of ethically challenged big-city machine politics, undoubtedly hoping the word "Chicago" will turn off suburban and rural voters.
THE AD
We've seen what Bush-McCain policies have done to our economy. Now John McCain wants to do the same to our health care. McCain just published an article praising Wall Street deregulation. Said he'd reduce oversight of the health insurance industry, too. Just "as we have done over the last decade in banking." Increasing costs and threatening coverage. A prescription for disaster. John McCain. A risk we just can't afford to take.
ANALYSIS
This Barack Obama commercial is based on John McCain's own words, although those words are subject to interpretation.
An article in the obscure journal Contingencies, published under McCain's name, says: "Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous, nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation." The senator from Arizona certainly sounds like the strong advocate of deregulation he has always been. The timing makes McCain sound as if he is defending the loosening of federal rules on banks, now widely blamed for the current market turmoil.
The McCain camp contends that the Republican nominee was referring only to the regulatory change that allowed banks to operate across state lines. But because the article does not specify what he has in mind, McCain leaves himself vulnerable to the charge that he endorsed the full sweep of banking deregulation.
There is no evidence that McCain is "threatening coverage" for health care, and the "prescription for disaster" verdict is credited to the Boston Globe -- leaving out that the quote is from the paper's liberal editorial page.
For the spot to cite the "Bush-McCain policies" ignores the fact that McCain has broken with the president on certain issues, including how to ease the banking crisis. The commercial tries to paint McCain as partially responsible for the Wall Street meltdown, although congressional Democrats did little to change the policies in question.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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September 23, 2008 Tuesday
Met 2 Edition
His Kind of Town;
Scranton Loves Biden, but Can It Warm to Obama?
BYLINE: Kevin Merida; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1976 words
DATELINE: SCRANTON, Pa.
Joe Biden was born at Mercy Hospital, went to school at St. Paul's, played baseball at Maloney Field, scrapped with local toughs, skinned his knees on the dirt roads. When he returns to his old Green Ridge neighborhood, where he spent the first 10 years of his life, he likes to pick up a "regular hoagie," the one with the special sauce, at Hank's Hoagies.
This has now become part of the official Democratic narrative for a prized city in this swing state. Scranton as Bidentown. Biden as Pennsylvania's third senator, not Delaware's senior one. This city of working-class charm and struggle has become a microcosm of all the fears and hopes and restlessness of Democrats who believe they should win this presidential election but are not convinced they will. Yesterday, John McCain brought his show to town and expressed doubts similar to Barack Obama's about the proposed massive government bailout. Someday soon, running mate Sarah Palin may show up nearby.
"It's unbelievable how close it is," says Mayor Christopher Doherty, a Democrat who supported Hillary Clinton in the primary but is backing Obama now. "I'm surprised. The country's in terrible shape, and it's a dead heat."
In talking to folks about Obama, Doherty has concluded: "He hasn't made the connection. They don't know him. Who'd you want to have a beer with? Who'd you leave your kids with? John McCain is winning that test."
Scranton embodies the strange mix of doubt and possibility that hangs over Obama's campaign, the sense that he is this generation's John F. Kennedy but hasn't yet closed the deal. In the primary, the state's political machinery was behind Clinton, who had the added benefit of having family roots in Scranton. And while Democrats outvoted Republicans nearly 6 to 1, Obama was drubbed by Clinton in northeastern Pennsylvania by margins that make some Democrats uneasy, especially in a battleground state seen as essential to retaking the White House.
Biden promised the Pennsylvania delegation at the Democratic National Convention that he would sell the ticket hard in this state, that Pennsylvania would get "an inordinate amount of resources" and that he himself would be a forceful presence here. "We cannot win without winning Pennsylvania," Biden said. "It is that simple." In 2000, Gore defeated George W. Bush in Lackawanna County, where this city is the county seat, 60 percent to 36 percent, and in 2004, John Kerry beat Bush, 56 percent to 42 percent.
The campaign even ran an early ad in this market emphasizing Biden's roots here. But those roots may not cure all in a region where Obama's top campaigners, a couple of popular Lackawanna County commissioners, received hate mail during the primary just for backing the Illinois senator. More than is sometimes acknowledged, residents say, this is a region wrestling with bitterness and backwardness, the kind that Aunie Frisch, who has Chinese ancestry, sometimes finds maddening.
"There have been several elderly people who have come up to me asking me, 'What nail salon do you work for?' I'm polite. I'm not going to scream at an old lady. But this is 2008," says Frisch, a 22-year-old graphic design major at Marywood University.
Many Scrantonians would like to believe in Obama, just as they would like to believe that their town is on the rise -- they've got the sizzling Triple-A level Yankees to be proud of, a downtown incubator center for start-up companies, the first medical school being built in the state in 50 years. They've got "The Office" to be proud of, NBC's hip, culty sitcom about the quirky cubicle life inside a fictional Scranton paper company.
But the bleak portraiture from a glorious past still darkens the cityscape -- the once teeming rag factory that no longer teems, the wallpaper factory that's now shuttered. No coal to talk about anymore, no iron. Just last month, Boscov's, described as the nation's largest family-owned department-store chain, filed for bankruptcy. Though its store in Scranton's Mall at Steamtown will remain open, Boscov's financial woes only added to the city's economic anxiety.
Despite $400 million in construction projects over the past seven years, Scranton is still a "did-you-know" kind of town. As in: Did you know that Scranton once produced virtually all of the country's silk? Did you know that the now-defunct Scranton Button Co. was once among the largest in the world? Did you know that Scranton has lost nearly half its population since Franklin Roosevelt was president?
"It's like learning to walk with a limp," says Tom Bell. "After a while, you don't even know you're limping."
Tom Bell runs an insurance firm, and the hunt for policyholders has grown more difficult as the years have gone by. Tom Bell is also a childhood friend of Joe Biden's, and the hunt for something to say about politics is not so difficult for him.
Of Obama, Bell says: "He's got to be tougher. He's got feet in both camps. But too often he seems to speak from his Ivy League, Chicago law firm camp." Of his schoolboy pal, Bell says: "Joe Biden represents my type of Democrat." Of Obama, Bell says: "I think sometimes he is, I hate to use this word, too nice." Of Biden, Bell says: "Joe is very well-known and very well-liked in this area." Of Obama, he says: "I think Obama comes across as a little too sophisticated."
And so it goes. Not that Tom Bell isn't for Obama. Of John McCain, he says: "I think something is wrong with him. I'm telling you -- something is wrong with him. Instead of him running for office, everybody should chip in and get him some therapy."
But Bell worries that Democrats have an energy policy "that is imaginary," an insecurity about their identity that is palpable, and not enough fight in them. "I'm very worried about this election," he says. "It would be hard for the Democrats to blow this election. And you know what? They're doing it."
Scranton was Biden's first stop after the Democratic National Convention, just as it was Kerry's first stop in 2004. He spent the afternoon at his old home on North Washington Avenue, a two-story gray Colonial with black shutters and a carpeted porch, now owned by Anne Kearns. It was here that the young Biden and his family lived with his grandparents, the Finnegans.
Biden spent nearly three hours with Kearns and her family and neighbors and a smattering of politicos, speaking in the back yard, where grilled hot dogs and hamburgers were served. Biden at one point was led up to the attic, where the bed he slept in as a boy had been kept all these years. "You're kidding me?" he said. At the request of the Kearnses, he signed his name on the wall with the inscription: "I am home."
Kearns was reflecting on this visit the other day, thinking that Obama is going to make it, with Joe's help. She is still the only one with an Obama yard sign in the neighborhood. Having taught for 20 years at Marywood University in the neighborhood, she has learned to listen to the kids. "When I saw all the young people going for him, I thought: That's what this country needs. I saw something new in Obama."
Jim Kennedy sat on the porch of the home he grew up in and spoke of the old. He was facing Kearns's back yard, with his white, blue-striped pants hiked up, pointing to the paved street that was once a dirt alley. That's where he and Joe played growing up. "For entertainment, we used to take popsicle sticks and weave them together and make rafts and sail them down the gutter in heavy rain. It was fun, man. It was fun."
Kennedy is an elected magistrate judge with an eighth-grade education, one of the city's colorful characters, now in his 33rd year on the bench. A record, he notes. He has remained a good friend of Biden's, and doesn't hesitate to tell all the childhood stories: about Joe's stuttering problems, about eating Joe's ice cream when Joe got his tonsils removed, about Joe's crush on the blonde next door.
Kennedy would sometimes pin Joe down and put spit on his hairy arms and rub the hair hard and make it curl up. "Little small ways of getting him." The sum of Kennedy's message: Joe is tough, authentic, irrepressible. Excellent vice presidential material. And most important, a real, native son.
* * *
Anyone who has ever stayed three nights in Scranton qualifies for hometown consideration. At Pat McMullen's bar, they have fun with this. The parents of Emmy-winning actor Jeremy Piven are from Scranton. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's wife. Judy McGrath, the MTV chief executive, is from Scranton. And Robert Reich, the former labor secretary. Let's not forget former Syracuse basketball star Gerry McNamara, a Scranton favorite. And the writer William Kotzwinkle, who collaborated on the novelization of "E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial" -- he's a Scranton kid.
"Everybody's from Scranton," says Pat Sweeney, one of McMullen's bartenders, who happens to be off-duty this night. A good thing for him. This is an especially raucous night, as the Cowboys-Eagles game on "Monday Night Football" is airing on all TV sets. And strangely enough, virtually the entire crew of regulars is rooting for the Cowboys and not Pennsylvania's own team. What's that about?
Bars in general, and Irish bars particularly in this town, are the political trash-talking equivalent of the barbershop. Nothing is off limits in the bar, especially insulting Sarah Palin.
"If she loses, she's in Playboy a month later," says Sweeney dismissively. Seriously, though. "Can she run the country? Maybe," Sweeney continues, "but I'm going to go with Joe Biden. He's got more experience."
McMullen's is adorned with miniature helmets, political posters from the Kennedy era, sports jerseys, photos of notables, including a signed one from Biden. The ceiling is covered with vinyl placards containing messages like this one from Henny Youngman: "When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." As the night was winding down, Sweeney yelled out: "Hey, Joe Biden called! Everybody gets a free drink." To which the regulars heartily cheered. It was a setup for his punch line: "Sarah called, too. Everybody gets a free photo shoot!"
Chris Doherty likes jokes and guffaws as well as the next man. But he is also the mayor of a city that needs help. For him, this election is utterly serious.
"Cities like Scranton do not have the money to pay for all these infrastructure bills we have to pay." Street pavement, bridge replacement, water lines, making an older Northeastern city attractive so that it can compete for business with the newer Southwestern cities and remain vital. "We need the federal government to play a role in our lives," he says. "Republicans don't believe that. Democrats do."
He needs Barack Obama to win, but he worries. He has told Obama's staff that the candidate needs to do more retail campaigning here, not closed events like the one at the area glass factory recently. "He needs to be out."
Joe Pusateri, who works for a Wise potato chip distributor -- "I deliver chips" -- has a different view of the electorate here and a different feel for this election. "I think Obama's gonna win. Honest to God. Why would I lie? I'm not gonna lie."
When he is not delivering chips, he works for the Arena Football 2 league. Being around football, he says, has helped him to see equality better. "It's about time we had change in the country -- that we look at each other as Americans. Not black, white, Asian," he said. "We're all Americans. That's what we are. When 9/11 happened, all folk died. Right?"
He had just finished a delivery at Hank's Hoagies. He called Obama a fresh face, an educated man, somebody special. "This guy is not off the streets." And he is concerned, quite frankly, that McCain is "getting up there in age."
So he's going to vote for Obama then?
Joe Pusateri paused for a few seconds. No, he wasn't quite prepared to go that far.
"It's up in the air," he says. "I can't lie."
LOAD-DATE: September 23, 2008
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IMAGE; By Butch Comegys -- Scranton Times-tribune; Sen. Joe Biden shares a laugh with Roxanne Pauline earlier this month when the native son returned to Scranton as Barack Obama's running mate.
IMAGE; By Gerald Herbert -- Associated Press; Sen. John McCain yesterday on Biden's old turf. The county voted Democratic in the 2000 and '04 elections.
IMAGE; Photos By Butch Comegys -- Scranton Times-tribune; Revisiting his roots: Sen. Joe Biden checks out a bedroom in what was his childhood home during a campaign stop earlier this month to Scranton.
IMAGE; Biden's mother, Jean, 91, joins him on the trip down memory lane. The vice presidential candidate "represents my type of Democrat," says one childhood pal.
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The Washington Post
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
Regional Edition
McCain Loses His Head
BYLINE: George F. Will
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A21
LENGTH: 814 words
"The queen had only one way of settling all difficulties, great or small. 'Off with his head!' she said without even looking around."
-- "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"
Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.
Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that "McCain untethered" -- disconnected from knowledge and principle -- had made a "false and deeply unfair" attack on Cox that was "unpresidential" and demonstrated that McCain "doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does."
To read the Journal's details about the depths of McCain's shallowness on the subject of Cox's chairmanship, see "McCain's Scapegoat" (Sept. 19, Page A22). Then consider McCain's characteristic accusation that Cox "has betrayed the public's trust."
Perhaps an old antagonism is involved in McCain's fact-free slander. His most conspicuous economic adviser is Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who previously headed the Congressional Budget Office. There he was an impediment to conservatives, including then-Rep. Cox, who, as chairman of the Republican Policy Committee, persistently tried and generally failed to enlist CBO support for "dynamic scoring" that would estimate the economic growth effects of proposed tax cuts.
In any case, McCain's smear -- that Cox "betrayed the public's trust" -- is a harbinger of a McCain presidency. For McCain, politics is always operatic, pitting people who agree with him against those who are "corrupt" or "betray the public's trust," two categories that seem to be exhaustive -- there are no other people. McCain's Manichaean worldview drove him to his signature legislative achievement, the McCain-Feingold law's restrictions on campaigning. Today, his campaign is creatively finding interstices in laws intended to restrict campaign giving and spending. (For details, see The Post of Sept. 17, Page A4; and the New York Times of Sept. 20, Page One.)
By a Gresham's Law of political discourse, McCain's Queen of Hearts intervention in the opaque financial crisis overshadowed a solid conservative complaint from the Republican Study Committee, chaired by Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the RSC decried the improvised torrent of bailouts as a "dangerous and unmistakable precedent for the federal government both to be looked to and indeed relied upon to save private sector companies from the consequences of their poor economic decisions." This letter, listing just $650 billion of the perhaps more than $1 trillion in new federal exposures to risk, was sent while McCain's campaign, characteristically substituting vehemence for coherence, was airing an ad warning that Obama favors "massive government, billions in spending increases."
The political left always aims to expand the permeation of economic life by politics. Today, the efficient means to that end is government control of capital. So, is not McCain's party now conducting the most leftist administration in American history? The New Deal never acted so precipitously on such a scale. Treasury Secretary Paulson, asked about conservative complaints that his rescue program amounts to socialism, said, essentially: This is not socialism, this is necessary. That non sequitur might be politically necessary, but remember that government control of capital is government control of capitalism. Does McCain have qualms about this, or only quarrels?
On "60 Minutes" Sunday evening, McCain, saying "this may sound a little unusual," said that he would like to replace Cox with Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic attorney general of New York who is the son of former governor Mario Cuomo. McCain explained that Cuomo has "respect" and "prestige" and could "lend some bipartisanship." Conservatives have been warned.
Conservatives who insist that electing McCain is crucial usually start, and increasingly end, by saying he would make excellent judicial selections. But the more one sees of his impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events, the less confidence one has that he would select judges by calm reflection and clear principles, having neither patience nor aptitude for either.
It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?
georgewill@washpost.com
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Washingtonpost.com
September 23, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Lois Romano, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 1662 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Lois Romano was online live Tuesday, Sept. 23 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
____________________
Lois Romano: Good morning, everyone. Glad to have you all here today.
_______________________
St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Lois. It seems like the hoopla surrounding Sarah Palin has died down somewhat, along with the Monday morning quarterbacking that Obama should have gone with Hillary ... but where is Joe Biden? Is there a sense that he's proving to be an effective surrogate for Obama, or is he merely fulfilling the "do no harm" requirement, despite his occasional odd comments (i.e. criticizing ads from his own party)?
washingtonpost.com: See the ad at The Post's new Political Browser, a rundown of the biggest and best stories of the day from across the Web.
Lois Romano: Biden actually is campaigning very hard across the country, focusing his energy on working-class communities that Obama has trouble connecting with. You may not read about him, but he is getting ample coverage from the local press where he travels. There certainly was some panic among Democrats when Palin was named, but there was never any serious consideration to Obama replacing Biden.
_______________________
San Diego: What is the schedule for the vice presidential and presidential debates (i.e. dates, times, TV channels)?
washingtonpost.com: All debates start at 9 p.m. ET. Presidential: Sept. 26, moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS; Oct. 7, moderated by Tom Brokaw of NBC; Oct. 15, moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS. Vice presidential: Oct. 2, moderated by Gwen Ifill of PBS.
Lois Romano: Commission on Presidential Debates.
_______________________
Re: Dire Consequences: The Post has a headline above the fold which says the administration warns of "dire consequences" if its $700 billion financial solution is not adopted. Didn't it use many of the same words to roll us over to accepting the invasion of Iraq? Do these words and scare tactic fall into the "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" department?
washingtonpost.com: Policymakers: Congress Must Move Quickly to Avert Damage (Post, Sept. 24)
Lois Romano: It's because of Iraq that you see lawmakers take a closer look at this package in the light of day. Everyone seems to agree on some level that it's needed, but to what extent the public must pick up the tab for Wall Street and corporations -- while their executives get great golden parachutes -- is being hotly debated.
_______________________
Dunn Loring, Va.: With Obama criticizing Biden's position on the AIG bailout and with Biden criticizing the Obama ad making fun of McCain's inability to use a computer, is there even more talk now of Biden being removed from the vice presidential slot? Is this harping on your running mate indicative of what an Obama administration will look like?
Lois Romano: I don't think we can read too much into it at this point. They were in different locations and it was a fast-moving event, so there wasn't much time to formulate an official campaign policy. I doubt you will see too much more of that moving forward.
_______________________
Waterville, Maine: Good morning. Joe Biden's comment to Katie Couric that an Obama-Biden campaign ad ridiculing McCain's computer skills, among other things, was "terrible" appears like the kind of gaffe that McCain's team will seize on to say Obama is not a new kind of politician -- even his vice presidential pick is disgusted (or something along those lines). I can imagine that ads are being created as we speak. Two questions: How is the Obama camp -- which has been very disciplined -- going to deal with Biden's off-message remarks? And do you think this has legs, or will the financial industry bailout drown out this impolitic statement as noise?
Lois Romano: The ad seems to have backfired on the Democrats. In addition to it being perceived as simply silly, some blogs are writing that McCain can't use a computer because of the injuries he sustained in Vietnam. Dan Pfeiffer an Obama spokesman explained the ad, saying cyber-security is "one of our most serious national security threats." It didn't come off in a way that showed "security" to be the issue.
This being said, the McCain campaign has been throwing some very tough stuff at Obama in ads. It's a pretty tough race.
_______________________
Orono, Maine: The talk of my office the other day was George Will's comments Sunday about John McCain's temperament. Now he's put those thoughts into print and the column will be in our local paper tomorrow. Do you think having a conservative criticize McCain will have an impact on moderate and conservative voters?
Lois Romano: Not particularly. Conservative voters long have been wary of McCain and his temper long has been an issue.
_______________________
Washington: Good morning. I was asked an interesting question yesterday and was hoping you might know the answer: What happens if a candidate has to drop out after they've been nominated? I'm not saying either candidate will/should, but it was a hypothetical, and I couldn't answer. Does the vice presidential pick automatically take up the mantle? Does the party hold an emergency meeting and pick a new candidate based on who got the second-most delegates? Are the rules the same for both parties? Just wondering.
Lois Romano: The only time this has happened is recent political history was when George McGovern dropped Thomas Eagleton from the ticket in 1972, and gave the vice presidential slot to Sargent Shriver after the convention. I believe what happened is that the Democrats then staged what amounted to a mini-nominating convention in Washington for Sargent.
Anyone out there know more about this?
_______________________
Salinas, Calif.: Hi Lois. It appears to me that Barak Obama has surrendered his high ground campaign of hope and leadership for the trench warfare that John McCain's advisors have calculated will get them the win (perhaps the only way). Barring a huge Election Day turnout of first-time Democratic and independent voters (the vaunted "ground game") and a dominating Obama presence in the debate crapshoot, doesn't daily "news" of battleground states leave Democrats with a queasy feeling, a bad deja vu?
Lois Romano: It's a very tough race. One demographic you didn't mention was young voters. Obama did a good job mobilizing them for the primaries; he needs them to vote this time in droves.
_______________________
Albany, N.Y.: In the world of the pundits, Obama and Biden not walking in lockstep is a major faux pas, but in the rest of the country, it is more likely a sign of two men speaking candidly -- rarely a bad thing.
Lois Romano: I agree. They come across as straight-talking in my view.
_______________________
Massillon, Ohio: In answer to the apparent disappearance of Joe Biden, he was in our area last week, and had big crowds in Wooster and Canton. The local newspapers all had extensive coverage and the television stations in Cleveland covered it. People in this area are much more likely to trust the coverage of our local media than you MSM-ers.
Lois Romano: That you for sharing.
_______________________
Dunn Loring, Va.: How smart is Biden really? I know he likes to brag about his intelligence, but then he tells Katie Couric that "when the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the princes of greed." Does Biden not realize that TV wasn't commercially available in 1929, and that FDR didn't take office until 1933?
Lois Romano: Biden is plenty smart, but like many politicians his mouth gets ahead of him.
_______________________
Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. The McCain campaign, in its public face, comes across as angry a lot of the time. Are they that way on a personal level?
Lois Romano: No, not really. There are many decent people working there who believe in McCain. I think what you're seeing now is their attack on the media, which the media then covers -- so it seems as if they are angry all the time.
_______________________
Richmond, Va.: Former President Clinton's appearance on "The View" the other day has been well reviewed across the board, with his admission that his administration made mistakes and that both parties were to blame. While some folks have said this is him being upfront and bipartisan, am I wrong to think that it's another attempt to screw over Obama and take another potentially harmful issue for the GOP off the table?
Lois Romano: To the contrary, he looks open and conciliatory. And that is a welcomed change from the primaries.
_______________________
Brookline, Mass.: If the McCain campaign says it doesn't care about the media "filter," why go on such an unhinged tirade against the Times?
washingtonpost.com: The Fix: Schmidt Hammers the New York Times (washingtonpost.com, Sept. )
Lois Romano: They care. A critical part of their strategy is to attack the media -- it fires up their base, which hates the media.
_______________________
Lois Romano: Thank you all for joining me today. I have to sign out a few minutes early to attend a press conference. These are very exciting times -- check in with us early and often.
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 22, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Loan Titans Paid McCain Adviser Nearly $2 Million
BYLINE: By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and CHARLES DUHIGG; John Harwood contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 16
LENGTH: 1033 words
Senator John McCain's campaign manager was paid more than $30,000 a month for five years as president of an advocacy group set up by the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to defend them against stricter regulations, current and former officials say.
Mr. McCain, the Republican candidate for president, has recently begun campaigning as a critic of the two companies and the lobbying army that helped them evade greater regulation as they began buying riskier mortgages with implicit federal backing. He and his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, have donors and advisers who are tied to the companies.
But last week the McCain campaign stepped up a running battle of guilt by association when it began broadcasting commercials trying to link Mr. Obama directly to the government bailout of the mortgage giants this month by charging that he takes advice from Fannie Mae's former chief executive, Franklin Raines, an assertion both Mr. Raines and the Obama campaign dispute.
Incensed by the advertisements, several current and former executives of the companies came forward to discuss the role that Rick Davis, Mr. McCain's campaign manager and longtime adviser, played in helping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac beat back regulatory challenges when he served as president of their advocacy group, the Homeownership Alliance, formed in the summer of 2000. Some who came forward were Democrats, but Republicans, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed their descriptions.
''The value that he brought to the relationship was the closeness to Senator McCain and the possibility that Senator McCain was going to run for president again,'' said Robert McCarson, a former spokesman for Fannie Mae, who said that while he worked there from 2000 to 2002, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together paid Mr. Davis's firm $35,000 a month. Mr. Davis ''didn't really do anything,'' Mr. McCarson, a Democrat, said.
Mr. Davis's role with the group has bubbled up as an issue in the campaign, but the extent of his compensation and the details of his role have not been reported previously.
Mr. McCain was never a leading critic or defender of the mortgage giants, although several former executives of the companies said Mr. Davis did draw Mr. McCain to a 2004 awards banquet that the companies' Homeownership Alliance held in a Senate office building. The organization printed a photograph of Mr. McCain at the event in its 2004 annual report, bolstering its clout and credibility. The event honored several other elected officials, including at least two Democrats, Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania and Representative Artur Davis of Alabama.
In an interview Sunday night with CNBC and The New York Times, Mr. McCain noted that Mr. Davis was no longer working on behalf of the mortgage giants. He said Mr. Davis ''has had nothing to do with it since, and I'll be glad to have his record examined by anybody who wants to look at it.''
Asked about the reports of Mr. Davis's role, a spokesman for Mr. McCain said that during the time when Mr. Davis ran the Homeownership Alliance, the senator had backed legislation to increase oversight of the mortgage companies' accounting and executive compensation. The legislation, however, did not seek to change their anomalous structure as private companies with federal support.
The spokesman, Tucker Bounds, also noted that the Homeownership Alliance included nonprofit organizations like Habitat for Humanity and the Urban League. ''It's not controversial to promote homeownership and minority homeownership,'' Mr. Bounds said. More than a half-dozen current and former executives, however, said the Homeownership Alliance was set up mainly to defend Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by promoting their role in the housing market, and the two companies paid almost the entire cost of the group's operations.
''They were financed largely, possibly exclusively, by Fannie and Freddie,'' said William R. Maloni, a Democrat who is a former head of industry relations for Fannie Mae. ''We thought it would be helpful to have someone who was a broadly recognized Republican to be the face of the organization, and that person became Rick Davis.'' Mr. Maloni added, ''Rick, for that purpose, turned out to be quite good.'' (Several executives said Mr. Davis's compensation was not unusual for the companies' well-connected consultants.)
The federal bailout of the two mortgage giants has become an emblem of what critics say is the outdated or inadequate regulatory system that allowed the financial system to slide into crisis this summer.
At the time that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recruited Mr. Davis to run the Homeownership Alliance in 2000, they were under new pressure from private industry rivals and deregulation-minded Republicans who argued that the two companies' federal sponsorship gave them an unfair advantage and put taxpayers at risk. Critics of the companies had formed their own Washington-based advocacy group, FM Watch. They were pushing for regulations that would deter the companies from expanding into new areas, including riskier and more profitable mortgages.
Mr. Davis had recently returned to his lobbying firm from running Mr. McCain's unexpectedly strong 2000 Republican primary campaign, which elevated Mr. McCain's profile as a legislator and Mr. Davis's as a lobbyist.
''You can say what you want about free-market distortions, but people like the system because it gets them into houses cheap,'' Mr. Davis said to Institutional Investor magazine in 2000, adding that he would run the advocacy group out of his Alexandria, Va., lobbying firm.
The organization also hired Public Strategies, a communications firm that included former Bush adviser Mark McKinnon. Mr. Davis wrote letters and gave speeches for the group. In April 2001, he sent out a press release headlined, ''It's Tax Day -- Do You Know Where Your Deductions Are? For Most Americans, They're in Your Home.''
But by the end of 2005, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were recovering from accounting problems and re-examining costs, former executives said. The companies decided the Homeownership Alliance had outlived its usefulness, and it disappeared.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: A 2004 photograph from a report by the Homeownership Alliance, an advocacy group for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, shows John McCain with Ken Guenther, a former chairman of the group, left, and David Lereah of the National Association of Realtors.
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The New York Times
September 22, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
McCain and Obama Urge Greater Oversight in a Financial Bailout Plan
BYLINE: By JOHN HARWOOD and MICHAEL COOPER; Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 18
LENGTH: 1101 words
DATELINE: PHILADELPHIA
Senators John McCain and Barack Obama warned Sunday that there should be more oversight built into the government's $700 billion plan to stabilize the financial markets but said the potentially enormous expenditure would not force them to scale back their ambitious governing agendas.
Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, and Mr. Obama, his Democratic rival, agreed in separate interviews that steps should be taken to ensure taxpayer dollars are not used to enrich the executives of troubled financial firms bailed out by the government. They echoed each other in assessing the threat from the financial crisis as severe enough to warrant government intervention.
But Mr. McCain said in an interview here with CNBC and The New York Times that he would press on with his plan to extend the Bush tax cuts and to cut others. Contrary to the warnings of fiscal analysts, he said he believed he could do so and balance the federal budget, which was falling deeper into deficit even before the financial crisis, by the end of his first term.
''I believe we can still balance the budget,'' he said. ''I think that it is restraint of spending, and I think it's growth of government and the economy, and the recovery of our economy. And anything you do that would take more money from the American people who are hurting more now, I think, would be a serious mistake.''
Mr. McCain also stuck by his support for allowing workers to invest a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes in stocks and bonds, an approach that Democrats call privatization and that Mr. Obama has used to suggest Mr. McCain would subject retirees to excessive market risk.
In a separate interview earlier in the day, Mr. Obama said that despite the huge new government obligation, he would press ahead with his plans to overhaul the health care system to insure more people, make college tuition more affordable, give a tax cut to the middle class and raise taxes on those making over $250,000 a year.
''The problem that we have,'' Mr. Obama said, ''in part has to do with wages and incomes that have been flat. And so homeowners and ordinary families out there have been working very hard, but it's tough for them to pay the bills and stay afloat with rising gas prices and health care.
''So if we don't address our long-term competitiveness, if we don't address some of the inequities in the tax code, if we're not addressing some of the things that weakened the family budget, then we're not, over the long term, going to solve these larger problems in the financial markets.''
Mr. McCain has made speeches and broadcast television commercials recently that highlight Mr. Obama's ties to former leaders of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the mortgage giants at the center of the financial crisis.
Mr. McCain has struck a notably populist tone in addressing the crisis, and in the interview, he set a specific limit on compensation for executives at firms that receive federal assistance. ''But the major point,'' he said, ''is that no C.E.O. of any corporation or business that is bailed out by us, that is rescued by American tax dollars, should receive any more than the highest paid person in the federal government.''
Mr. Obama continued to assail the philosophy of excessive deregulation that he said was the root cause of the crisis and made clear that the aftermath should include a new regulatory approach.
The deepening financial crisis and the shifting government response to it have challenged both presidential candidates for more than a week, as they struggled to react to a situation that seemed to change each day. In the interviews, they gave some of their most detailed views of the crisis to date.
Mr. Obama warned that the bailout should not be a ''blank check'' and called for tighter regulation of the financial industry, suggesting he would support imposing federal capital requirements on investment firms. He also emphasized that the plan would have to include more relief for homeowners and distressed communities, a demand being made by Democrats in Congress.
''Regardless of how we got there,'' he said, ''we now have a situation where people's jobs, people's savings, people's retirement accounts, their job security, all that is at risk. And so we've got to take some firm and decisive steps.''
Mr. McCain, like Mr. Obama, said an oversight board should be created to monitor how the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., administers the bailout, which calls for the federal government to take toxic assets off troubled financial firms' hands.
''I respect and admire Secretary Paulson, but as far as I can tell, we're placing all those responsibilities in the hands of one person,'' Mr. McCain said. ''I think we need to appoint an oversight board of the most respected people in America, such as maybe Warren Buffett, who's a Obama supporter; Mitt Romney, Mike Bloomberg, so that there can be some kind of oversight of, instead of just putting all this responsibility on a person who may be gone in four months.''
Mr. McCain, who has been trying to distance himself from the Bush administration while proposing to continue many of its economic policies, tried Sunday to strike several bipartisan notes.
In a separate interview on ''60 Minutes'' on CBS, he mentioned that he would like to see Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat who is the attorney general of New York, take over as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission from Christopher Cox, whose ouster he has called for.
He also said on ''60 Minutes'' that he would remove the political operation from his White House and put it in the Republican National Committee.
The financial crisis and the proposed bailout have become fodder for a heated back and forth in the presidential campaign. Mr. Obama has cast Mr. McCain as a longtime proponent of the kind of deregulation that he says led to the crisis; Mr. McCain has cast Mr. Obama as lacking in the leadership qualities needed in a time of crisis.
Mr. Obama offered guarded praise of how Mr. Paulson is handing the crisis. He stopped short of pledging to keep him in place in an Obama administration, but he said that the gravity of the turmoil in the nation's financial markets was so serious that continuity was important to avert further crisis.
''Getting a new person to start juggling those balls is going to be tricky,'' Mr. Obama said. ''Regardless of who wins the election, the issue of transition to the next administration is going to be very important. And it's going to have to be executed with a spirit of bipartisanship and cooperation.''
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LOAD-DATE: September 22, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: John McCain and Barack Obama said in interviews on Sunday that a $700 billion plan to stabilize the financial markets would not force them to scale back their ambitious governing agendas. (PHOTOGRAPHS FROM LEFT TO RIGHT BY, TODD HEISLER/THE NEW YORK TIMES
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September 22, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Barack Obama, John McCain and the Language of Race
BYLINE: By BRENT STAPLES
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL OBSERVER; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 644 words
It was not that long ago that black people in the Deep South could be beaten or killed for seeking the right to vote, talking back to the wrong white man or failing to give way on the sidewalk. People of color who violated these and other proscriptions could be designated ''uppity niggers'' and subjected to acts of violence and intimidation that were meant to dissuade others from following their examples.
The term ''uppity'' was applied to affluent black people, who sometimes paid a horrific price for owning nicer homes, cars or more successful businesses than whites. Race-based wealth envy was a common trigger for burnings, lynchings and cataclysmic episodes of violence like the Tulsa race riot of 1921, in which a white mob nearly eradicated the prosperous black community of Greenwood.
Forms of eloquence and assertiveness that were viewed as laudable among whites were seen as positively mutinous when practiced by people of color. As such, black men and women who looked white people squarely in the eye -- and argued with them about things that mattered -- were declared a threat to the racial order and persecuted whenever possible.
This obsession with black subservience was based in nostalgia for slavery. No sane person would openly express such a sentiment today. But the discomfort with certain forms of black assertiveness is too deeply rooted in the national psyche -- and the national language -- to just disappear. It has been a persistent theme in the public discourse since Barack Obama became a plausible candidate for the presidency.
A blatant example surfaced earlier this month, when a Georgia Republican, Representative Lynn Westmoreland, described the Obamas as ''uppity'' in response to a reporter's question. Mr. Westmoreland, who actually stood by the term when given a chance to retreat, later tried to excuse himself by saying that the dictionary definition carried no racial meaning. That seems implausible. Mr. Westmoreland is from the South, where the vernacular meaning of the word has always been clear.
The Jim Crow South institutionalized racial paternalism in its newspapers, which typically denied black adults the courtesy titles of Mr. and Mrs. -- and reduced them to children by calling them by first names only. Representative Geoff Davis, Republican of Kentucky, succumbed to the old language earlier this year when describing what he viewed as Mr. Obama's lack of preparedness to handle nuclear policy. ''That boy's finger does not need to be on the button,'' he said.
In the Old South, black men and women who were competent, confident speakers on matters of importance were termed ''disrespectful,'' the implication being that all good Negroes bowed, scraped, grinned and deferred to their white betters.
In what is probably a harbinger of things to come, the McCain campaign has already run a commercial that carries a similar intimation, accusing Mr. Obama of being ''disrespectful'' to Sarah Palin. The argument is muted, but its racial antecedents are very clear.
The throwback references that have surfaced in the campaign suggest that Republicans are fighting on racial grounds, even when express references to race are not evident. In a replay of elections past, the G.O.P. will try to leverage racial ghosts and fears without getting its hands visibly dirty. The Democrats try to parry in customary ways.
Mr. Obama seems to understand that he is always an utterance away from a statement -- or a phrase -- that could transform him in a campaign ad from the affable, rational and racially ambiguous candidate into the archetypical angry black man who scares off the white vote. His caution is evident from the way he sifts and searches the language as he speaks, stepping around words that might push him into the danger zone.
These maneuvers are often painful to watch. The troubling part is that they are necessary.
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USA TODAY
September 22, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Candidates slug through Wall Street mess
BYLINE: David Jackson and Jill Lawrence
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 2A
LENGTH: 564 words
During a tumultuous week on Wall Street and in Washington, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama struggled to keep up. A day-by-day look at the events and what the candidates said:
Day Events McCain Obama
Monday Lehman Bros. declares In Jacksonville: "You know In Grand Junction, Colo.:
bankruptcy; Merrill Lynch that there's been tremendous Calls the turmoil "a major
sold to Bank of America. termoil in our financial markets threat to our economy" and
and on Wall Street. ... Still and "more evidence that
the fundamentals of our too many folks in Washington
economy are strong." Later, and on Wall Street weren't
McCain said the strong minding the store ... For years,
fundamentals referred to U.S. I have called for modernizing
workers, but "their efforts are the rules of the road to suit not being matched at the top." a 21st-century market -- rules
that would protect American
investors and consumers."
Tuesday Stocks continue to fall On NBC's Today: "We In Golden, Colo.: Dismisses
amid reports the cannot have the taxpayers McCain's commission as a
government may bail out bail out AIG or anybody else." "stunt." Says he would "get
American International Group. In other morning show serious" about regulatory
appearances, McCain also oversight, change bankruptcy
proposes a panel similar to laws to help people keep their
the 9/11 Commission "to homes, offer a homeowner's
figure out what went wrong tax credit and create jobs with
and how to fix it," but he a $50 billion "emergency"
doesn't repeat the idea the program to rebuild
rest of the week. infrastructure.
Wednesday Stocks continue to plummet In a statement: "The focus of In Elko, Nev.: "The Federal
after news that the any such action should be Reserve must ensure that the
government will bail out AIG. to protect the millions of plan protects the families that
Americans who hold count on insurance. It must
insurance policies, retirement not bail out the shareholders
plans and other accounts with or management of AIG that
AIG. We must not bail out the are making big profits when
management and speculators times are good. They shouldn't
who created this mess." be bailed out when times are
bad."
Thursday Stock market rallies; reports In Cedar Rapids, Iowa: "The In Espanola, N.M.: Says he
that government is chairman of the SEC serves will convene his top advisers
considering massive bailout. at the appointment of the Friday and calls for passage
president and has betrayed the of a homeowner and financial
public's trust. If I were president support act to establish "a
today, I would fire him." more stable and permanent
solution than the daily
improvisations" of the past year.
The act would provide capital
and liquidity to markets and "get
serious" about helping people
stay in their homes, he says.
Friday Treasury Secretary Henry In Green Bay, Wis.: "The In a statement: Says he will
Paulson and Fed Chairman Federal Reserve should get hold off releasing his own
Ben Bernanke announce back to its core business of blueprint so policymakers can
bailout proposal for financial responsibly managing our do their work "unimpeded by
firms. money supply and inflation. partisan wrangling." But he
It needs to get out of the says the plan must be
business of bailouts." "temporary and coupled with
tough new oversight and
regulations."
Reported by David Jackson and Jill Lawrence
LOAD-DATE: September 22, 2008
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USA TODAY
September 22, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Democrats have sights on Va. as battleground;
Voting patterns have shifted, but southern region is solidly GOP
BYLINE: Alan Gomez
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 7A
LENGTH: 911 words
MECHANICSVILLE, Va. -- Gordon Maddox, a retired career police officer in this southern Virginia town, ticked off his priorities when deciding who to vote for in a presidential race.
"Integrity." "Good moral character." "Christian leadership."
These qualities rarely appear in national polls asking voters to list their priorities this election. But they come up often in southern Virginia, home to numerous military schools and evangelical universities.
Largely on the strength of this region, Republicans have been taking Virginia in presidential elections for decades. The last time a Democrat won here was in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated U.S. Sen. Barry Goldwater.
But Democrats believe the political stars may be aligned to turn the Old Dominion their way.
For instance, Virginia has elected back-to-back Democrats for governor. In 2006, voters sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate to replace a Republican. And Democrats made significant gains in 2007 in the Virginia House and took control of the state Senate.
Most important, Democrats may not have to win over southern Virginians.
That's because the Virginia counties in the north close to Washington, D.C., have seen a huge influx of people in recent years and they vote Democratic.
"Northern Virginia has gotten deeper and deeper blue," says Bob Hovis, 66, a lawyer who lives in Fairfax County about 15 miles from Washington. "I think this is the year to turn Virginia completely blue."
Since 2004, one out of every four new voter registrations have been in three counties: Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, according to figures from the state Board of Elections. All are in Northern Virginia.
The race is close, polls say. Republican John McCain's lead of 50%-46% over Democrat Barack Obama in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll, conducted in Virginia after both parties held their conventions, was within the poll's margin of error.
Mark Rozell, a public policy professor based at George Mason University's Arlington campus, says he had expected the growth of the Democrat-leaning north and an increase in minority groups (which tend to vote Democratic) around the state to eventually weaken the Republican grip. But the change "came about more suddenly and dramatically than I had ever imagined."
The Obama campaign seems to sense a chance and is moving to capitalize on the trend. Obama has made 10 public appearances in Virginia since June. McCain has made three. Obama has outspent McCain $7 million to $4.6 million in Virginia, says Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad costs.
Amy LaMarca volunteered in 2004 for Democrat John Kerry near her home in Fredericksburg and remembers fellow volunteers having to buy their own campaign materials. This year, she says, the Obama campaign has fully staffed the area.
"There was this assumption that the South was unwinnable, that we were just a bunch of country bumpkins," she says.
The success of some Democrats in recent years will still be hard to duplicate for Obama.
Although the 2006 race for the U.S. Senate was won by Democrat Jim Webb, he did so barely, with a 9,329-vote margin of victory out of 2.3 million votes cast.
And he won against Sen. George Allen, whose campaign was subjected to numerous negative articles in newspapers, TV programs and the Internet after he referred to a man of South Asian descent as "macaca" -- an ethnic slur in some countries.
Also, Gov. Tim Kaine and his gubernatorial predecessor, Mark Warner (who is running for the U.S. Senate this year), ran on moderate, almost conservative platforms of vowing to slash government agencies and not raise taxes.
Ron Jaeckle, who works at Fort Lee outside of Richmond, says there were "no substantial differences" between those candidates and a traditional GOP platform of low taxes and small government. But he says Obama's positions are much more liberal, making it hard for him to win over Virginia.
In 2004, President Bush beat Kerry 54%-45% and prevailed in 102 of the state's 134 voting localities, according to figures from the state elections board.
Virginians in the south give a variety of reasons why they have voted Republican so consistently.
For Darren Apple, a door installer who lives on the south side of Richmond, the answer is simple: "If your daddy does something, that's what you do."
Obama's appeal is lost on many people in rural Virginia and in such towns as Mechanicsville, a working-class suburb of Richmond where American flags are on display outside homes on seemingly every block.
Victoria Derby, who owns a cleaning business in Mechanicsville, says she thinks Republicans are more likely to help small-business owners like herself and lists off other policy stances that she shares with the GOP, but she says questions about Obama's character are paramount for Virginians.
"If John McCain had that very same preacher, I would not be voting for him," Derby says of Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright, who made several incendiary comments that prompted Obama to leave his church. Obama "should've gotten up and walked out of that church a long time ago."
Maddox pointed to comments that Obama's wife, Michelle, made in February that she was proud of her country for the first time in her life. "Those things, for people who are patriotic and love their country, that turns them off," he says.
O.P. Ditch, a retired Air Force colonel who runs Vets4McCain.com, sums up the Democrats' hopes of winning over his long-red state: "They're dreaming."
LOAD-DATE: September 22, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, B/W, Carlos Roig and Dave Merrill, USA TODAY, Sources: Census Bureau (2007)
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September 22, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
Ad Men
BYLINE: Norman Chad
SECTION: SPORTS; Pg. E02
LENGTH: 800 words
This time of year, as I watch college and pro football on an endless loop Saturdays and Sundays -- Toni, a.k.a. She Could Be The One III, slips me pancakes under the door of my study for sustenance, and the kids, whose names escape me at the moment, are restricted to the southeast end of the condo -- I've noticed that the business of America is selling everything but soap to captive American males.
Couch Slouch remains America's Viewer and, thus, America's Commercial Viewer, America's Slogan Buster and America's Product Tester, which brings us to our second annual survey of the vast wasteland of ads littering televised sports:
Wendy's: "It's waaaay better than fast food." Really? Who's in the kitchen, Bobby Flay?
Pizza Hut: "Now get pasta from Pizza Hut." This might seem like a small point, but wouldn't I want to get, uh, pizza from Pizza Hut?
BlackBerry: "Life on BlackBerry." I have enough trouble with life in L.A. -- I don't need high-tech complications.
AT&T: Bill Kurtis "just found the Internet." Congratulations -- welcome to the 20th century. For his next trick, maybe he can find my career.
Cadillac Escalade Hybrid: First of all, who do you know -- still living -- who owns a Cadillac? Secondly, if you're going to be a Cadillac Man, are you going hybrid? Please. A Cadillac has no cachet being environmentally correct -- with a Caddy, you're thinking greed, not green. If you're trying to make an impression, you want the gas-guzzling, road-hogging, lust-and-power '78 Cadillac Eldorado, my friends.
Cialis: "Now for daily use." For daily use? I'll be honest with you: I've been an adult for quite a while now and I cannot recall a time in which sex was part of my daily routine.
Viagra: I am NOT a machine.
Allstate: "You're in good hands." No, I'm in therapy.
(Election-Season Column Intermission: The moment John McCain took Sarah Palin, Barack Obama should've countered with Phyllis George.)
Dodge: "The all-new Dodge Journey." I'm glad it's "all-new." I thought the engine and the cup holders might be used.
PNC: "Leading the way." Where? And with whom? Note: I have no idea what PNC is.
C2 ING: "Your future. Made easier." My past makes that impossible.
John Hancock: "The future is yours." No, it's my mortgage lender's. By the way, how come everyone is obsessing on my future?
Ford: "Drive one." I'd love to, except it's always in the shop being repaired.
Comcast: "It's Comcastic!" If we're going to make up words, I have one: "It's crockcastic!"
Citi: "Citi never sleeps." I wouldn't sleep either if I could spend somebody else's money 24-7.
Chrysler Town & Country: "Everything you want in a minivan. Everything." You know, I really don't want people eating fondue and watching TV in my minivan. Speaking of which, exactly how much TV do we need to watch? I mean, are your kids so unruly, bored and restless that if they don't see "The Suite Life of Zack & Cody" on the seven-minute drive to soccer practice, they will revolt in the back seat?
Samsung: It's the official HDTV of the NFL and Norman Esiason is the pitchman. Frankly, I'm thinking transistor radio.
Charles Schwab: "Talk to Chuck." You talk to Chuck -- I'm watching the Discovery Channel.
Coors Light: Coors Light + Brian Billick = Irritable Bowel Syndrome.
Budweiser: Beechwood aging, my butt.
Bud Light Lime: Not in this lifetime.
American Express: "Are you a cardmember?" No, I'm all cash all the time, baby.
Avodart: "Shrink it." Nobody touches my prostate. Nobody.
Mac: I love Macs. They don't have a slogan because they don't need one.
Ask The Slouch
Q. Were you able to recommend any therapists to Vince Young? (Dave Singleton; Milwaukee)
A. You know, someone like Tony Soprano -- he's running a mob family, it's a cutthroat business, he's responsible for whacking a couple people a week -- needs a shrink. Vince Young just needs better pass protection and a tighter spiral.
Q. With Lance Armstrong back on board, do you already have Tour de France fever? (Brian Gehr; Columbia, S.C.)
A. If you're out there listening, Lance, I have two words for you: We just don't care that much. (Okay, that's six words.) You're riding a bike, across France, in a doped-up sport, on a network nobody's ever heard of. Good luck and God speed.
Q. I am a venture capitalist with several hundred million dollars and need your opinion: In these troubled times, which is a better long-term investment, Lehman Brothers or the St. Louis Rams? (Michael Becker; St. Louis)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q. Is it true the Cleveland Browns didn't give Braylon Edwards a flu shot this year since there's only a 50-50 chance of him catching anything? (Ken Kula; Independence, Ohio)
A. Pay this fella, too.
You, too, can enter the $1.25 Ask The Slouch Cash Giveaway. Just e-mail asktheslouch@aol.com and, if your question is used, you win $1.25 in cash!
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The Washington Post
September 22, 2008 Monday
Regional Edition
Closing the Whopper Gap
BYLINE: Ruth Marcus
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A15
LENGTH: 798 words
The symmetry of sin is suddenly looking more equal. Last week, I flayed John McCain for dishonesty -- flagrant and repeated dishonesty -- about Barack Obama's proposals. Obama was by no means blameless, I argued, but his lapses were nowhere near as egregious as his opponent's. I stand by everything I wrote.
But a series of new Obama attacks requires a rebalancing of the scales: Obama has descended to similarly scurrilous tactics on the stump and on the air. On immigration, Obama is running a Spanish-language ad that unfairly lumps McCain together with Rush Limbaugh -- and quotes Limbaugh out of context. On health care, Obama misleadingly accuses McCain of wanting to impose a $3.6 trillion tax hike on employer-provided insurance.
Obama has been furthest out of line, however, on Social Security, stooping to the kind of scare tactics he once derided.
"If my opponent had his way, the millions of Floridians who rely on it would have had their Social Security tied up in the stock market this week," Obama said Saturday as he campaigned in that retiree-heavy state. "Millions of families would've been scrambling to figure out how to give their mothers and fathers, their grandmothers and grandfathers, the secure retirement that every American deserves."
This is simply false -- even leaving aside the incendiary language about "privatizing" Social Security. As the invaluable FactCheck.org noted, the private account plan suggested by President Bush and backed by McCain would not have applied to anyone born before 1950. It would not have changed benefits by a single penny for current retirees like the nice Florida folks that Obama was trying to rile up. The sensible notion was that workers at or near retirement age should be able to rely on promised benefits and should not be subject to the vicissitudes of short-term market fluctuations.
There is a fair argument to be had about the wisdom of having workers invest part of their Social Security taxes in private accounts. This year's plunge buttresses the contention that such accounts are too risky to comprise even part of what was conceived, after all, to serve as a safety net.
But Obama's cartoon version of private accounts is not what Bush suggested, and it certainly is not something being peddled by McCain now. Under Bush's plan, workers would have been able to invest less than a third of their Social Security taxes in private accounts. Unless they specifically chose a riskier course, workers, beginning at age 47, would have had their investments put in "life-cycle portfolios" that shifted from high-growth funds to more secure bonds as retirement approached.
Obama's ads on Social Security are equally misleading. "Cutting benefits in half, risking Social Security on the stock market," it warns. "The Bush-McCain privatization plan. Can you really afford more of the same?"
Cutting benefits in half? As FactCheck notes, "this is a rank misrepresentation." No one at or near retirement age would have been affected. Those retiring in the future would not have received benefits as big as what they have been promised under current law -- but those promises cannot be paid for under the current system or even through the payroll tax increase on the wealthy that Obama has proposed.
The Bush plan would have limited benefits for some workers to growing at the rate of inflation rather than at the generally faster pace of wages. In other words, these workers would be getting benefits equal in real dollar value to those received by current retirees. But under the "progressive price indexing" approach endorsed by the president, lower-income workers would continue to receive all their promised benefits; medium-income workers would have their benefits reduced somewhat; and high-income workers would take the biggest hit.
The Obama campaign stretches the truth beyond recognition when it says that this would cut benefits in half. Under progressive price indexing, the average-earning worker would see a 28 percent cut in promised benefits -- in 2075. In other words, trims of that magnitude would affect workers not yet born. Today's average-earning 25-year-old would experience much smaller reductions in promised benefits upon reaching retirement age -- more like 16 percent.
And the only way the Obama campaign can inflate the supposed benefit cut to "half" is by assuming that the change in calculating benefit growth would be applied to all workers, not just the top tier. In that case, workers not yet born would get 49 percent of the benefits not yet promised to them by 2075. Doubt these numbers? They come from Jason Furman, now the Obama campaign's chief economic adviser.
To Democrats who worry about whether their nominee is willing to do whatever it takes to win: You can calm down.
marcusr@washpost.com
LOAD-DATE: September 22, 2008
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The Washington Post
September 22, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
As the Battle Rages, It's Time to Check the Pulse of Swing States
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza And Ben Pershing
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 903 words
With new national polling numbers coming out nearly every day in the presidential fight between Barack Obama and John McCain, it's easy to forget that the race for the White House remains a state-by-state battle for electoral votes.
To keep the eyes of the political world in the right place, The Fix will use the remaining Mondays before the general election to highlight several battleground states where either candidate appears to be soaring or slipping.
Away we go!
· Florida: Obama went on television in the Sunshine State early and often, spending more than $8 million on TV ads before McCain started his advertising this month. It appeared as though the Democrat's spending had gone for naught as polling seemed to show the Republican with a solid single-digit lead. But the most recent polls suggest Obama and McCain are essentially tied in the state; a Time-CNN poll conducted early this month showed both candidates receiving 48 percent of the vote, and a Research 2000 survey in the field at the same time put McCain at 46 percent and Obama at 45 percent. A St. Petersburg Times poll released yesterday showed McCain leading 47 percent to 45 percent.
· Minnesota: Long considered a shoo-in state for Obama, Minnesota appears to have returned to competitiveness after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. A poll by the Minneapolis Star Tribune put the race at a dead heat -- 45 percent each for McCain and Obama -- while the newly minted Big Ten Battleground Poll, conducted by two University of Wisconsin political science professors, showed Obama with 47 percent and McCain with 45 percent. In a state as "Wild" for hockey as Minnesota -- Republican Sen. Norm Coleman is running for reelection on the slogan "he brought hockey back" -- could McCain's growth of late be related to the "hockey mom" effect?
· Indiana: When Obama passed over home-state Hoosier Sen. Evan Bayh, it was widely assumed that Indiana, which hasn't voted for a Democrat at the presidential level since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, was off the table for the Democrats. A series of new polls challenge that assumption, most notably a survey conducted by J. Ann Selzer, of Selzer & Co., that had Obama at 47 percent and McCain at 44 percent. (Political junkies will remember that Selzer, who is based in Des Moines, nailed the order of finish in the Iowa Democratic caucuses this year.) The reason for the competitiveness? Indiana's economy has been hit hard by the collapse of the manufacturing sector, and voters might think a change of the party in charge in Washington is the best way to voice their disapproval.
Social Security Makes Comeback
The financial meltdown is having an impact on political races up and down the ballot, as it adds to voters' feelings of insecurity and pushes economic issues front and center. But the crisis may be having another effect on House and Senate races by bringing back a vintage issue (circa 2005) -- Social Security.
Three years ago, Democrats had a big time tarring Republicans for their support of President Bush's dead-on-arrival Social Security plan, which sought to partially privatize the retirement program by allowing retirees to put their money in a variety of investments, including the stock market.
Now that the Dow Jones industrial average has been swinging up and down hundreds of points a day, Democrats are trying to repeat their efforts, reminding voters which Republicans backed Bush's plan.
In Pennsylvania's 11th District, where Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) is fighting to keep his job, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running an ad against GOP candidate Lou Barletta, featuring "regular people" calling Barletta "George Bush's friend, not mine." Barletta, they say, "supported privatizing Social Security. Too risky for me."
And in Illinois' 11th District, an open-seat race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R), the DCCC has been sending out mailings accusing Republican Marty Ozinga of backing "tax cuts that put our Social Security and Medicare in danger."
Individual Democratic candidates are also attempting to attack their GOP opponents on Social Security, and DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) predicts, "You're going to see a big uptick in this issue."
Barack Obama got in on the act Friday, asking attendees at a Miami rally to "imagine if you had some of your Social Security money in the stock market right now."
But Republicans scoff at the notion that Democrats will gain any traction on Social Security and suggested that Democrats were trying to distract from the real problems facing Congress.
"Clearly, they are not serious about finding solutions to this country's very serious economic challenges," said Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
And will a stray line from Obama, an ad or a piece of direct mail really serve to put Social Security back on the front burner, particularly since the major debate over Bush's reform plan happened three years ago? The Monday Fix will keep an eye on those polls in Florida.
4 DAYS: The first presidential debate will be in Oxford, Miss. Watch how both campaigns seek to lower expectations this week in the run-up to the clash at Ole Miss.
10 DAYS: In one of the most anticipated moments of the campaign, Sen. Joe Biden and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin square off in a debate in Mrs. Fix's home town, St. Louis. Get the popcorn popped and the Raisinets ready!
LOAD-DATE: September 22, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE
IMAGE
IMAGE
IMAGE; By Carolyn Kaster -- Associated Press; Reviving a 2005 issue, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running an ad in which "regular people" say GOP hopeful Lou Barletta, left, backed privatizing Social Security. Barletta is looking to unseat Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania's 11th District.
IMAGE; By Susan Walsh -- Associated Press
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The Washington Post
September 22, 2008 Monday
Met 2 Edition
Virginians Giving At Record Pace to Obama, McCain
BYLINE: Anita Kumar; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1433 words
DATELINE: RICHMOND
Virginia's status as a battleground state in the presidential election for the first time in more than four decades has led to a dramatic increase in donations from state residents, especially among Democrats in Northern Virginia.
Virginians have donated a record $25.3 million to candidates during this two-year election cycle, more than 85 percent of that from Northern Virginia donors, according to campaign finance reports filed last month. The total is nearly double the $14.2 million given during the same period in the run-up to the 2004 election and more than four times the $6.3 million raised before the 2000 election.
The Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, received $8.1 million from Virginia donors through July 31, and the Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, took in $5 million. The rest went to other candidates who ran in the party primaries.
Virginians have given far more to Democrats than to Republicans -- $15.9 million compared with $9.3 million -- in this election cycle, the first time in at least 20 years that the GOP has not led the presidential money battle in the historically conservative state.
The boost in fundraising is in line with a national trend and is partly attributable to the prolonged nomination battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. But in Virginia, the increase in giving to Democrats has far exceeded what has occurred in the rest of the nation. The surge in giving is firm evidence that Virginia Democrats think they can build on recent wins on the state level to capture the state's 13 electoral votes for the first time since 1964.
Donald S. Beyer Jr., a former Democratic lieutenant governor and a Northern Virginia car dealer, attributes the shift in giving to Obama, whom he calls "the most transformational leader in last 40 years." Beyer, Obama's mid-Atlantic finance chairman, and his wife, Megan Beyer, have raised more than $1.5 million for Obama. "People are very motivated," he said. "People are very, very excited."
Since before the primaries, Virginia has been the scene of unprecedented fundraising activity. Millions of dollars are being raised at swanky fundraisers at John and Jacqueline Kennedy's former home, Hickory Hill in McLean, and the Ritz-Carlton in Tysons Corner, through small donations on the Internet and by bundlers who call and e-mail friends, colleagues and prior donors.
Virginia's proximity to Washington has also contributed to the money flow, as members of Congress, former White House officials and influential lobbyists, many of whom live in Northern Virginia, have held or headlined fundraisers, including former Republican senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former Senate majority leader Thomas A. Daschle, a Democrat from South Dakota.
The increase does not necessarily mean that money raised in Virginia stays in Virginia. Obama and McCain are polling close across the country, and they have mounted aggressive campaigns in other battleground states, including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Nonetheless, fundraisers for McCain and Obama said the state's status as "in play" has made their jobs much easier, with many donors writing checks without the usual arm-twisting and others contributing without having to be asked.
"The more Virginia is in play, the easier it becomes," said Bill Dean, chief executive of the Dulles-based engineering firm M.C. Dean, who has raised about $25,000 for McCain. "It's another pitch you can make."
Both candidates have poured money, paid staff and other resources into Virginia, where they have been airing ads for months. Obama's campaign has opened 43 offices and dispatched dozens of field operatives. Obama, his wife, Michelle, and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, have campaigned in the state more than a half-dozen times since Obama secured the nomination.
McCain's campaign recently named Virginia the state with the most voters reached by phone or door-to-door canvassing at night and on weekends. Two weeks ago, McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, rallied thousands of supporters in Fairfax City.
The McCain and Obama campaigns would not discuss their fundraising efforts in the state. Information about donations has come from interviews with volunteers and reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. The information includes only contributions of $200 or more.
Nationwide, Obama raised a record-setting $466 million as of Aug. 31, and McCain collected more than $217 million.
Angel Thomas, 26, a single mother who grew up in Fairfax County and now lives in Woodbridge, had not been involved in politics before this year. Thomas first noticed Obama when he gave the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, but she did not get involved in his campaign until February, after watching his success in the primaries.
"I was really excited he was winning, and I wanted to do whatever I could to help him," she said.
Thomas, who works at Northern Virginia Community College and graduated from college $40,000 in debt, said she was sold on Obama after hearing about his proposal to offer a $4,000 tax credit for college in exchange for community service. She began volunteering for his campaign, canvassing neighborhoods and calling potential donors. And she donated whenever she could -- sometimes as little as $5 -- for a total of about $200.
Contributions to Obama from small donors have been credited with much of his fundraising success, but he and McCain have counted on well-connected bundlers to increase their Virginia totals. Many are elected officials, entrepreneurs, lawyers or lobbyists who work in Washington and live in Virginia.
"I'm sure there are some lobbyists who are doing this because they only want a job as an undersecretary or they want to tell their clients they have access to [Obama or McCain]. There's no doubt about it," said Kevin Wolf, a lawyer with the Bryan Cave firm in Washington and an Obama bundler. "But I help because I want [Obama] to win."
Wolf said he raised campaign money for the first time in 2004 for then-Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) because he wanted to defeat President Bush. This year, he has collected $75,000 for Obama, partly from an afternoon reception at his house attended by 80 people, who each gave at least $500.
Fifty-two bundlers in Virginia are raising money for McCain, including 20 who have been registered federal lobbyists, according to Public Citizen, a national nonprofit consumer group. Among them are Orson Swindle, a former prisoner of war with McCain in Vietnam, who has collected more than $100,000; Dwight C. Schar, chairman of the NVR home-building company, who has collected more than $500,000; and U.S. Rep. Eric I. Cantor (R-Va.), who has collected more than $250,000. McCain's son, Douglas McCain, a commercial airline pilot in Virginia Beach, has helped raise $50,000.
Fourteen bundlers in Virginia are raising money for Obama, including two who have been registered federal lobbyists, according to Public Citizen. They include Thomas Perrelli, managing partner of the Washington law firm Jenner & Block, who has collected more than $500,000; William R. Harvey, president of the historically black Hampton University, who has collected more than $100,000; and Mark Feierstein, a Washington consultant, who collected more than $50,000.
Bobbie Kilberg, president of the Northern Virginia Technology Council and an unsuccessful Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, has raised more than $900,000 for McCain with her husband, William Kilberg. They have contacted potential donors, and they hosted two receptions and a sit-down dinner, all attended by McCain, at their McLean home last year.
Kilberg said she was drawn to McCain because she felt "at home with his philosophy" and because his positions on issues most closely reflect hers. The McCains and the Kilbergs are friends who occasionally vacation together.
Donald Clark, a Virginia Beach trial lawyer who attended the Naval Academy with McCain, decided to raise money for him after he read a Wall Street Journal essay last year by former senator Phil Gramm of Texas describing McCain as the "right person at the right time to lead our country." In September 2007, Clark hosted a McCain fundraiser at his office that was attended by more than 75 people. He said he has raised more than $100,000 by talking up McCain's attributes without mentioning what he thinks are Obama's flaws.
"I've never done anything like this," he said.
Database editor Sarah Cohen and staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.
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September 22, 2008 Monday 2:36 PM EST
Sen. Barack Obama Speaks at Campaign Event in Green Bay, Wisconsin
BYLINE: CQ Transcripts Wire, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 3384 words
HIGHLIGHT: SPEAKER: SEN. BARACK OBAMA, D-ILL.
SPEAKER: SEN. BARACK OBAMA, D-ILL.
[*] OBAMA: The era of greed and irresponsibility on Wall Street and in Washington has led us to a perilous moment. They said they wanted to let the market run free but instead they let it run wild, and in doing so, they tramped our core values of fairness, balance, and responsibility to one another. As a result, we are facing a financial crisis as profound as any we have faced since the Great Depression. As a result, your jobs, your savings, and your economic security are now at risk.
This week, we must work quickly, in a bipartisan fashion, to resolve this crisis and avert an even broader economic catastrophe. And as we do act, Washington must recognize that true economic recovery requires addressing not just the crisis on Wall Street, but the crisis on Main Street that so many of you have been feeling in your own lives long before the news of last week. We need a plan that helps families stay in their homes, and workers keep their jobs; a plan that gives hardworking Americans relief instead of using taxpayer dollars to reward CEOs on Wall Street. And we cannot give a blank check to Washington with no oversight and accountability when no oversight and accountability is what got us into this mess in the first place.
But no matter what solution we finally decide on this week, it is absolutely imperative that we get to work immediately on reforming the broken politics and the broken government that allowed this to crisis to happen in the first place.
We did not arrive at this moment by some accident of history. We are in this mess because of a bankrupt philosophy that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to the rest of us.
We're here because for too long, the doors of Washington have been thrown open to an army of lobbyists and special interests who've turned our government into a game only they can afford to play - who have shredded consumer protections, fought against common-sense regulations and rules of the road, and distorted our economy so that it works for them instead of you.
We are here because an ethic of irresponsibility has swept through our government, leaving politicians with the belief that they can waste billions and billions of your money on no-bid contracts for friends and contributors, slip pork projects into bills during the dead of night, and spend billions on corporate tax breaks we can't afford and old programs that we don't need.
And today, even as Congress debates an emergency plan to save our economy from the verge of collapse, there are reports that lobbyists and CEOs are already lining up to figure out what's in it for them; to find out how they can get theirs.
Green Bay, enough is enough.
I began this race for the presidency as the one candidate who hasn't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I've been there long enough to know this - if we want a government that puts the needs of middle-class families before the whims of lobbyists and politicians; if we want to grow this economy and prevent a crisis like this from ever happening again, then the ways of Washington must change. We must reform our lobbyist-driven politics. We must reform the waste and abuse in our government. We must reform the rules of the road that let Wall Street run wild and stuck Main Street with the bill. We must change Washington now.
This has been our message from the day we began this campaign. Our opponent, on the other hand, has spent much of the last nineteen months arguing that what qualifies him to be President are the decades he's spent in Washington.
But with forty-two days left, he's had a sudden change of heart. An election-time conversion. After twenty-six years in Washington - years where he voted for the same trickle-down, on-your-own policies that got us into this mess - he now claims that he's the one who can clean it up.
Well let's be clear. When it comes to regulatory reform, Senator McCain has fought time and time again against the common-sense rules of the road that could've prevented this crisis. His economic plan was written by Phil Gramm, the architect in the US Senate of the de- regulatory steps that helped cause this mess. Even knowing what we know now, Senator McCain said in an interview just last night that de-regulation actually helped grow our economy. Well that might be true for the profits of a few CEOs, but it's certainly not true for America's prosperity.
When it comes to taking on the special interests, my opponent sounds like Fighting Bob Lafollette. But he acts like a guy who's spent three decades of his life in Washington. He's put seven of the biggest corporate lobbyists in charge of his campaign - lobbyists for the insurance industry and the oil industry; for foreign governments and Freddie and Fannie Mac, who paid his campaign manager nearly $2 million to defend them against stricter regulations. I guess they got their money's worth.
And rest assured, those lobbyists who are working day and night to elect my opponent aren't doing it to put themselves out of business.
When it comes to reforming government waste and spending, Senator McCain talks a lot about earmarks. And while he deserves credit for not requesting many of those earmarks during his time in Congress, what he never mentions is that he voted for 144 billion dollars worth in just six years; or that he voted for four out of the five Bush budgets that have been filled with special interests giveaways and left us with the largest deficit in history.
The truth is, our earmark system in Washington is fraught with abuse. It badly needs reform - which is why I didn't request a single earmark last year, why I've released all my previous requests for the public to see, and why I've pledged to slash earmarks by more than half when I am President.
But let's not pretend, as John McCain does, that proposing the elimination of 18 billion dollars of earmarks will make up for the more than 300 billion additional dollars he wants to spend on tax breaks for big corporations and multi-millionaires that don't need them and weren't asking for them - more than 300 billion dollars at a time when taxpayers are being asked to help finance two wars and a historic financial bailout. That's some pretty creative math, but it doesn't add up to is change. And change in Washington is what we need right now.
This change will not be easy. It will require reforming our politics by taking power away from the lobbyists who kill good ideas and good plans with secret meetings and campaign checks. It will require reforming our government by taking on the spending habits of both parties and going after the tax havens and loopholes that big corporations use to avoid paying their fare share while you pay more. And it will require reforming our out-dated, unfair regulatory system that favors Wall Street over Main Street but has ended up hurting both.
But I am ready to reform our politics because I've done it before. I've spent my career taking on lobbyists and their money, and I've won. When I was a state Senator in Illinois, if you wanted a favor, there was actually a law that let you give campaign cash to politicians for their own personal use. In the State House, they called it business-as-usual. I called it legalized bribery, and while it didn't make me the most popular guy in Springfield, I put an end to it. I brought Democrats and Republicans together, and we passed the first ethics reform in twenty-five years.
When I got to Washington, Jack Abramoff and his lobbyist pals had engaged in some of the worst corruption since Watergate. I led the fight for reform in my party, and let me tell you - not everyone in my party was too happy about it. When I proposed forcing lobbyists to disclose who they're raising money from and who in Congress they're funneling it to, I had a few choice words directed my way on the floor of the Senate. But we got it done, and we banned gifts from lobbyists, and discounted rides on their corporate jets. And I'm the only candidate in this race who can say that Washington lobbyists do not fund my campaign, you do - with donations of $100, and $10, and $5.
I also joined with one of the most conservative Republicans in Congress to end the abuse that allowed no-bid contracts to waste taxpayer dollars instead of using them to rebuild the Gulf Coast after Katrina. And we worked together to put the federal government's checkbook online - so you can see how and where Washington is spending trillions of dollars of your money.
For years, I have also pushed for reform of the same loose regulations and lax oversight that could've prevented the crisis we're in. It was two years ago that I introduced legislation to stop mortgage transactions that promoted fraud, risk or abuse. It was one year ago that I called on our Treasury Secretary and our Fed Chairman to bring every stakeholder together and find a solution to the subprime mortgage meltdown before it got worse. In March, when John McCain was saying "I'm always for less regulation," I called for a new, 21st century regulatory framework to restore accountability, transparency, and trust in our financial markets.
These are the types of reform I will pursue beginning on my very first day in office as President of the United States - political reform, government reform, and regulatory reform.
First, I'll reform our special interest-driven politics. When I am President, I will start by closing the revolving door in the White House that has allowed people to use their Administration job as a stepping stone to further their lobbying careers.
I'll make it absolutely clear that working in an Obama Administration is not about serving your former employer, your future employer, or your bank account - it's about serving your country. When you walk into my administration, you will not be able to work on regulations or contracts directly related to your former employer for two years. And when you leave, you will not be able to lobby my Administration - ever. I will also institute an absolute gift ban so that no registered lobbyist can curry favor with members of my administration based on how much they can spend on a fancy dinner.
I'll make our government open and transparent so that anyone can ensure that our business is the people's business. As Justice Louis Brandeis once said, sunlight is the greatest disinfectant. As President, I will make it impossible for Congressmen or lobbyists to slip pork-barrel projects or corporate welfare into laws when no one is looking because when I am president, meetings where laws are written will be more open to the public. No more secrecy.
When there is a bill that ends up on my desk as President, you will have five days to look online and find out what's in it before I sign it. When there are meetings between lobbyists and a government agency, we will put as many as possible online for every American to watch. When there is a tax bill being debated in Congress, you will know the names of the corporations that would benefit and how much money they would get. And we will put every corporate tax break and every pork-barrel project online for every American to see. You will know who asked for them and you can cast your vote accordingly.
The second set of reforms I'll make will eliminate the waste, fraud, and abuse in our government.
We are facing the largest deficit in history. We are facing the largest government bailout in history. And we are also facing some of the greatest challenges in our history. All of this will cost money - to fix our health care system, and our schools, and build a new energy economy. And the only way we can do all this without leaving our children with an even larger debt is if Washington starts taking responsibility for every dime that it spends.
We can start by ending a war in Iraq that is costing us $10 billion a month when the Iraqi government is sitting on a $79 billion surplus. We should also stop sending fifteen billion dollars a year in overpayments to insurance companies for Medicare and go after tens of billions of dollars in Medicare and Medicaid fraud. We need to stop sending three billion a year to banks that provide student loans the government could provide for less, and hundreds of millions a year in subsidies to agribusiness that can survive just fine without your tax dollars and use some of the money to help family farmers who are struggling. I will put an end to this waste when I am President.
I am not a Democrat who believes that we can or should defend every government program just because it's there. There are some that don't work like we had hoped - like the Bush Administration's billion- dollar-a-year reading program that hasn't improved our children's reading. And there are some that have been duplicated by other programs that we just need to cut back - like waste at the Economic Development Agency and the Export-Import Bank that has become little more than a fund for corporate welfare.
I understand there are parts of these programs worth defending and politicians of both parties who will do so. But if we hope to meet the challenges of our time, we must make difficult choices. As President, I will go through the entire federal budget, page by page, line by line, and I will eliminate the programs that don't work and aren't needed.
As for the programs we do need, I will make them work better and cost less. I will create a High-Performance Team that evaluates every agency and every office based on how well they're serving the American taxpayer. We will fire government managers who aren't getting results, we will cut funding for programs that are wasting your money, and we will use technology and lessons from the private sector to improve efficiency across every level of government - because we cannot meet twenty-first century challenges with a twentieth century bureaucracy.
I will also save billions of dollars by cutting private contractors and improving management of the hundreds of billions of dollars our government spends on private contracts, and I will end the abuse of no-bid contracts for good. One employee of a former Halliburton subsidiary actually admitted that he was ordered to put his company's logo on towels provided to U.S. troops because our government - our tax dollars - would pay for it no matter how much it cost. That is wasteful, that is wrong, and that will end when I am President.
And for all his talk about earmark abuse, what Senator McCain doesn't mention these days is the corporate abuse of our tax system - abuse that has cost far more than earmarks ever have. In 2003, loopholes and tax breaks allowed 28 major corporations to actually have negative tax liabilities. We lose $100 billion every year because corporations get to set up mailboxes offshore so they can avoid paying a dime of taxes in America. Imagine if you got to do that? There is a building right now in the Cayman Islands that is the address for 18,000 corporations. Well that is either the biggest building in the world or the biggest sham in the world, and I think we know which one it is. I will shut down those offshore tax havens and all those corporate loopholes as President, because you shouldn't have to pay higher taxes because some big corporation cut corners to avoid paying theirs. All of us have a responsibility to pay our fair share. That's putting country first.
Finally, the third set of reforms I will pursue are the updated, common-sense regulations of the financial market that I've been calling for since March; rules of the road that will make Wall Street fair, open, and honest; that will ensure a crisis like this can never happen again.
I've outlined six principles that such reforms should follow. First, if you're a financial institution that can borrow from the government, you should be subject to government oversight and supervision. Taxpayers who have now been called upon to spend nearly a trillion dollars to save our economy from the excesses of Wall Street have every right to expect that financial institutions are not taking excessive risks.
Second, we need to reform requirements on all regulated financial institutions, investigate rating agencies and potential conflicts of interest with the people they are rating, and establish transparency requirements that demand full disclosure by financial institutions to shareholders.
Third, we need to streamline our overlapping and competing regulatory agencies that cannot oversee the large and complex institutions that dominate the financial landscape.
Fourth, we need to regulate institutions for what they do, not what they are. Over the last few years, commercial banks and thrift institutions were subject to guidelines on subprime mortgages that did not apply to mortgage brokers and companies. This regulatory framework failed to protect homeowners, and made no sense for our financial system.
Fifth, we need to crack down on trading activity that crosses the line to market manipulation. We need regulators that actually enforce the rules instead of overlooking them. The SEC should investigate and punish all market manipulation.
Sixth, we must establish a process that identifies systemic risks to the financial system like the crisis that has overtaken our economy. We need a standing financial market advisory group to meet regularly and provide advice to the President, Congress, and regulators on the state of our financial markets and the risks they face. It's time to anticipate risks before they erupt into a full- blown crisis.
These are the principles that should guide the reforms we need to establish a 21st century regulatory system - a system that recognizes our free market economy has only worked because we have guided the market's invisible hand with a higher principle - that America prospers when all Americans can prosper.
To restore this prosperity, we must change Washington. We must reform our regulations, our politics, and our government, but we will not be able to make these changes with the same policies, the same lobbyists, or the same Washington culture that allows politicians and special interests to set their own agenda.
That's exactly what we will get from John McCain. After twenty- six years of being part of this Washington culture, all that he has changed is his slogan for the fall campaign. And the people in charge of that campaign prove that if we elect John McCain, it's not a team of mavericks we'll be sending to the White House - it's a team of lobbyists.
We can't afford four more years of that kind of politics. We need real change.
It won't be easy. The kind of change we're looking for never is. What we are up against is a very powerful, entrenched status quo in Washington who will say anything and do anything and fight with everything they've got to keep things just the way are.
But I feel good about our chances, because I've got something more powerful than they do: I've got you. In this campaign, you have already shown what history teaches us - that at defining moments like this one, the change we need doesn't come from Washington. Change comes to Washington.
Change has always come from places like Wisconsin - the state where the progressive movement was born; where laws were passed to regulate the railroads and insurance companies; laws that protected consumers and the safety of factory workers. It was a movement rooted in a principle that was known as the Wisconsin Idea - the idea that government works best in the hands of the people, not the special interests; that your voices should speak louder than the whispers of lobbyists.
That's the Wisconsin idea. That's the America idea. And that's the kind of government we need right now.
So if you want the next four years in Washington to look just like the last eight, then I am not your candidate. But if you want real change - if you want to shine a bright light into the backrooms of Washington; if you want to replace the special interests with your interests, if you want a government that costs less and works better for everyday Americans, then I ask you to knock on some doors, and make some calls, and talk to your neighbors, and give me your vote on November 4th. And if you do, I promise you - we will change America together. Thank you.
END
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September 22, 2008 Monday 2:00 PM EST
Outlook: No White House Honeymoon;
While Task Looks Daunting, Presidents Who Clean Up After Predecessors Earn High Marks
BYLINE: Ted Widmer, Former Speechwriter, Clinton Administration; Author, "Ark of the Liberties: America and the World", washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3148 words
HIGHLIGHT: "What does it mean to inherit the presidency in an hour of crisis? Historically, it has usually meant a push to reverse the last fellow's policies. That holds true even in relatively tranquil times. In 2001, for instance, the incoming Bush team, which scorned its predecessors as ineffectual, weak and morally compromised, made a mantra of the term "ABC" ("Anything But Clinton"). ... With about 80 percent of the electorate saying that the country is on the wrong track, it doesn't take a brilliant tactician to suggest that a new direction would work well for either Barack Obama or John McCain. ... But how well does rejecting the policies of one's predecessor work? Here's the historian's answer: pretty well."
"What does it mean to inherit the presidency in an hour of crisis? Historically, it has usually meant a push to reverse the last fellow's policies. That holds true even in relatively tranquil times. In 2001, for instance, the incoming Bush team, which scorned its predecessors as ineffectual, weak and morally compromised, made a mantra of the term "ABC" ("Anything But Clinton"). ... With about 80 percent of the electorate saying that the country is on the wrong track, it doesn't take a brilliant tactician to suggest that a new direction would work well for either Barack Obama or John McCain. ... But how well does rejecting the policies of one's predecessor work? Here's the historian's answer: pretty well."
Former Clinton administration speechwriter Ted Widmer, author of "Ark of the Liberties: America and the World," was online Monday, Sept. 22, 2 p.m. ET to discuss his Outlook article about past presidents who've pushed the country away from his predecessor's policies, and what we might expect from the next White House.
The transcript follows.
Archive: Transcripts of discussions with Outlook article authors
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Ted Widmer: Hi everyone. I see a few questions relating to my piece yesterday in The Post about becoming president during hard times -- the pitfalls and the potential. I see a few questions already, some tilted obviously to the right, and others to the left. In other words, a perfect cross sampling of America. I'll try to answer as many as I can.
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Brisbane, Australia: How much cash is still available to the U.S. for all this spending that has been promised by Bush? I understand that the U.S. budget is already $10 trillion in the red, and the Wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and wherever are costing billions a month to finance. Who in their right mind is going to lend the U.S. anything at this point in time?
Ted Widmer: Nice to hear from this distant questioner -- we don't always remember how much U.S. foreign policy does to shape the affairs of the entire world, American and un-American alike. It's hard to answer with specifics about money -- it's true, Bush has made promises, but his power to enact them is more or less nil at this late stage as lame duck syndrome is already at an advanced stage. But at the same time, the U.S. economy is still the engine of the world, and where there is a potential for growth there will be investors. But a clear task of a new president will be to ensure that sound fiscal conditions prevail, that the deficit can be reduced, that reckless spending will be curtailed, and so forth. If those conditions are met, it will be very much in the world's interest to get the U.S. economy moving again.
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Muskogee, Okla.: A very intelligent look at the way past administrations coped with the mess left by their predecessors. However, how does the blatancy of the GOP smear campaign fit into this mix? If Obama wins, he begins under a cloud concocted by right-wing radio personalities who use underhanded innuendo to perhaps permanently affect his ability to govern. If McCain wins, he begins with a history of following the same path as the Bush administration, and a significant portion of the American public will believe he won his office through lies, slander, pandering and plain ol' dirty tricks. How can any one human being reconcile this?
Ted Widmer: Excellent question. Certainly there have been smears -- but I don't think they really have stuck. I think if Obama wins, it will be such a transcendent moment of new possibility that the positive message will outlive the negative one. Similarly, I believe that McCain will continue to create independent space for himself as the anti-Bush (even while strategically retreating from that position now and then). Last night on "60 Minutes," for example, he was floating ideas that Bush never would in a millions years. (Andrew Cuomo as part of GOP cabinet?)
There have been a lot of dirty presidential campaigns -- usually we forget all about them in the euphoria of the victory and the self-reinvention narrative that we love.
_______________________
Silver Spring, Md.: Certainly one major legacy being left for the next president is a mounting deficit, but just how much of a concern is that to most voters? Those who call for $10 billion a month to continue to be spent in Iraq and Afghanistan and also call for lowering taxes certainly feel that higher taxes are more of a turnoff than a higher deficit.
Is it that the deficit is too amorphous or too hard to understand, or that it is something that will be paid off down the road? We want instant gratification (e.g. lower taxes now); even if it's not instant, we'd like to believe it is (more drilling, which will really lead to more oil many years in the future).
Ted Widmer: This too is an excellent question -- and I agree. "The deficit" never has been the sexiest topic to campaign on -- it's amorphous, and projected into the future, and it seems to shrink as easily (under Clinton) as it grows, which can undercut its relevance to voters. But I think that will change somewhat in the next year, as the economy stays in the news and as credit-availability is tied to the deficit. Also, with a new president there will be a new emphasis on which policies work and which don't, and I would not be surprised if there was a lot of new nostalgia for the Clinton economic policies of the early-to-mid-'90s. We know what they were, we know they succeeded, and we know that a huge amount of job creation followed -- so what's not to like?
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Atlanta: I couldn't disagree with the premise of your article more. Virtually every problem that will be handed over to the next president was not of President Bush's making. The two biggest problems are the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, which were caused by Clinton's negligent foreign policy, while the financial crisis mainly was caused by Democrats' reluctance to regulate.
Ted Widmer: This question, if it is meant seriously, is fascinating for its ability to reinvent history. The last I heard, President Clinton had not invaded Iraq or Afghanistan, nor had he presided over the recent collapse of the economy, as convenient as it may be to blame him. And it's amazing to hear the economic crisis attributed to the Democrats for their failure to regulate -- they've held Congress, barely, for all of two years; the GOP had it all for the six years before that. I thought the GOP was supposed to be the party of responsibility? Let's try to live up to the responsibility of telling the truth about the serious mistakes that have been made. We're Americans -- we can handle the truth.
_______________________
South Riding, Va.: After hearing Sarah Palin give her first speech at the convention a few weeks ago, I wondered how much of the speech was her true style and humor and how much was the speechwriter. As a speechwriter, how do you balance the message of the speech without losing the essence of the person giving the speech?
Ted Widmer: Well, even if the speechwriter came up with those jokes, she delivered them with aplomb, and should get much of the credit. Basically as speechwriter you're just trying to give them the best possible platform from which to soar (or fall flat) -- but the final result is up to the politician, as it should be. A great politician can make an ordinary speech sound good -- with improvisations, little asides and a distinctive emphasis. A mediocre politician will make the Gettysburg Address sound like a high school assembly speech.
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Palo Alto, Calif.: Some have argued that Obama is being Carterized -- i.e. set up by the Republicans for one term. Should Obama win, his administration will be mired in two wars costing more than $1 trillion dollars, and now he will be responsible for the management of the bailout of a $45 trillion (yes, that's trillion) industry that may collapse completely. If you were Obama, how would you ensure that these Republican Trojan horses are disabled ASAP?
Ted Widmer: That's a tough one -- a quick answer is that it would be politic to ensure that both parties have a stake in the successful resolution of the problems you mention. Creating a high-profile bipartisan commission to advise, supervise and regulate the bailout would be a big step in the right direction. In World War II, Harry Truman became famous as the senator tough enough to make sure that the U.S. munitions industry was not fleecing the taxpayer -- that's why FDR chose him as his final vice president. How great it would be now to have powerful senators and administration officials looking at Halliburton and insider trading and making sure that honest business practices are followed. Honestly, this stuff isn't that difficult if people just follow the law.
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Arlington, Va.: Why would anyone want to be president given the current mess? The global finance system is melting down, there are wars on various fronts, the American people are polarized pretty much 50-50 ... it seems like the next president is doomed.
Ted Widmer: Well, that is basically the question I set out to answer in the piece. It might be true -- except that we appeared even more doomed in 1861 and 1933, and things turned out pretty well. The current situation is bad, but 1933 was worse by a wide margin. Jonathan Alter's book "The Hundred Days" has some good information on just how serious it was; so does Arthur Schlesinger's trilogy about FDR.
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Chantilly, Va.: I know that Bush is not very popular, and that reversing the course of action on many fronts could be seen by many as putting America back on the proper path. But are there areas that, although unpopular with the American people, would be made much worse if the course were reversed?
Ted Widmer: Great question. Yes, I think Democrats should resist kneejerk attempts to simply reverse everything. For example, AIDS funding to Africa has increased. Funding for UNESCO was restored. There were occasionally good statements about Darfur. None of that should be overturned.
We Democrats are sometimes squeamish about the use of military power, and we want to avoid that squeamishness, just as we want to avoid the trigger-happy policies of the past eight years. In short, we want to get it just right. We don't want a president who refuses to commit U.S. power when it is needed (as it regrettably often is). And we strongly want a president who is out there, eloquently and urgently denouncing violations of human rights and democracy, and pressing for the basic things that we care about to be available to the world. To be assertive, in other words -- but assertive in a more persuasive way than President Bush has been. His "Freedom Agenda" has not been convincing to many people. Still, having said all that, the spread of freedom and the rejection of tyranny are still exceedingly worthwhile goals for U.S. foreign policy.
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New York: Besides the obvious mess (economy, war, debt, lost leadership of America, etc.), what is the next administration going to do about: Replacing lawyers in the Justice Department with ones who know the law, passed the bar, and are not political appointees in a job that should not be political? Reversing the imperial presidency?
Getting the government to grow where it counts? We have more political appointees in management, workers have been let go, contractors have been put in to do the work and we still have Chinese food and drug imports that are killing us. Who is protecting me? Who is protecting our children?
Ted Widmer: It would be nice to see a new administration come in with a clearly-articulated code of ethics that would include ideas about effective performance, avoiding conflicts of interest, working with representatives of both parties, delivering basic services to citizens -- in effect, doing the job it has been hired to do. Corporations have to be efficient to survive (or at least they used to). Why can't governments?
Gingrich's 1994 Contract with America was an ingenious political idea -- if somewhat cynical in his hands. A new basic statement of what a government should and should not do for the people it serves would be most welcome. I know, it sounds like a Frank Capra movie -- but this might be something that could unite Republicans and Democrats eager to move forward.
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Fairfax, Va.: Given that the electorate has grown used to being lied to in the past eight years, and as the electorate is clueless about how our financial system actually works, and as most people can't remember what politicians said last week -- let alone several years ago -- isn't it pretty clear by now that the next president can get away with anything his heart desires? Especially with a mainstream media that is as ignorant, incompetent and sold out as ours is, what the last president did safely can be ignored?
In other words, we the people have been so dumbed-down, our public discourse so degraded, our sources of information so biased, that whether McCain only does the same as Bush a little less than 90 percent of the time or Obama finally tells us what he has up his sleeve, the electorate will continue to be abused and manipulated until we stand and fight for our rights as citizens.
Ted Widmer: I hope that this is wrong -- but I can't honestly say. It seems to me that some of this is right (that there is little understanding of the financial mess, and no memory of what politicians say and do), and also that we have been hurt by the declining performance of the media, who are caught between downsizing pressures of their own and a celebrity culture that cares more about Pamela Sue Anderson than retirement accounts. It's hard to know whether to blame a media that underreports what is going on or a public that shows no interest for what is going on. But that last point is not quite true, the 2008 election has shown the power of relatively unconnected people to gather together and shape outcomes (especially in the Obama campaign), and the Internet is conveying information very quickly and effectively, even if not always accurately. So there are grounds for hope. As I tried to say earlier, the American people has been burned before -- on plenty of occasions -- and invariably found a way to tinker with the system to save it. That's what needs to happen now.
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Burke, Va.: Do you think that there is there a more effective way to lead the world in fighting against terrorism and nuclear proliferation than creating a strong economy and reducing our dependence on foreign oil by finding new sources to power our energy and transportation requirements?
Ted Widmer: Those are two very good ways to begin, but I think we need to get back, more deeply, to the old-fashioned business of diplomacy -- international conferences, treaties, summit meetings to work out irritants, that sort of thing. Dean Acheson said "The United States should be the first to attend a peace conference and the last to leave."
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Burke, Va.: What do you think about oil companies' corruption of public officials? How much the public has lost in oil royalties that should have been paid?
Ted Widmer: This would be an outstanding topic for an investigative piece, but unfortunately I don't have the info.
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Philadelphia: As a University of Pennsylvania graduate, it always pains me to know that the only president to attend Penn was William Henry Harrison, who used his knowledge as a medical student to stand in the rain and deliver the longest inaugural speech ever, catch cold, and die in office after a month into his presidency. As much as we don't like to talk about it, the job of "president of the United States" has the highest mortality rate of any occupation. Do you think it may be more likely that someone with more Capitol experience is more apt to create his own policy agenda, i.e. Sen. Biden, whereas Gov. Palin is more apt to be dependant upon the policy advisors she might inherit?
Ted Widmer: I think it changes from situation to situation. Many outsiders have governed very well (Lincoln for example), and governors traditionally have been good -- Clinton, FDR, Wilson, Reagan, etc.. But in the current environment I sympathize with your sense that a Biden would be more comforting than a Palin. Still, I hope that it never would come to a vice president having to become president under those kinds of circumstances.
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Burke, Va.: Phil Gramm, President Bush, Vice President Cheney and their Republican allies, including McCain, gutted the Glass-Steagall Act in favor of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which was written by the Wall Street lobbyists. It allowed commercial banks, investment banks, and insurers to merge (which would have violated antitrust laws under Glass-Steagall). Do you think we can revoke the the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act and re-enact the Glass-Steagall Act?
Ted Widmer: That's a good specific question -- I think it's a matter of political will. If a large enough Democratic majority wins, the way it did in 1932, then anything is possible.
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Juneau, Alaska: Hi Ted. "Honeymoon"? Who would want to be married to the presidency given the mess it is in? I think we are headed toward a disaster of epic proportions, and I am not sure there is much either candidate can do at this point as president. As my 13-year-old said in the car on the way to school today, Bush has destroyed the country. Who want to clean up the elephant poop after the circus has come through town?
Ted Widmer: Well, I might have used that last line if the editors had let me. It's quite an arresting image.
Look, I think "destroyed" the country is too strong -- but "seriously harmed" is not. Still, 1932 was worse than 2008 --and the way they got out of it was by rolling up their sleeves and attacking the problems without sentimentality. We can do it again.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: If Obama wins, do you think that one of the first things his staff will have to deal with is tracking down the missing "O" keys from all of the White House keyboards?
Ted Widmer: Great question. But we'll need "O" if we want to spread demOcracy, build a recOvery, and instill bi-partisan cOOperatiOn. W, it turns out, was a more forgettable letter.
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Ted Widmer: I tried to answer your questions but couldn't quite get to all of them in an hour. But thanks for the good questions -- I enjoyed it. I'll try to answer the others somehow if I can find time later.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 22, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Critiquing the Press
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4240 words
HIGHLIGHT: Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
He was online Monday, Sept. 22 at noon ET to take your questions and comments.
The transcript follows.
Media Backtalk transcripts archive
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Montreal: The McCain campaign has decided to make it impossible for the electorate, via the press, to get any kind of real and direct examination of governor Palin. Even when she does choose to do an interview or answer a question, the campaign picks who and when. What does this kind of strategy say about the role of the Fourth Estate in modern American democracy? It sure seems like a direct attack on the concept of an informed electorate and an inquisitive press.
Howard Kurtz: Well I hate to disillusion you, but every campaign decides when, whether and with whom its candidates will talk to. Palin has been an extreme case, although she's scheduled to sit down with Katie Couric tomorrow. She has held no news conferences and taken a grand total of one question from the traveling press (offering a convoluted answer about AIG). If this is the way McCain and his strategists want to treat their vice presidential nominee, they have a right to do it. It doesn't exactly proclaim that they have full confidence in the governor to deal with normal interaction with the media. The question is whether voters will conclude that she's being shielded for a reason.
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Wheaton, Md.: So I saw a piece on Fox News Channel yesterday, explaining the AIG, Fannie and Freddie meltdown. They said it was because of a l999 law that relaxed the regulations that banks have to follow, and showed pictures of President Clinton signing something. Is this the usual FNC disinformation campaign (blame Democrats for everything bad) or was Clinton instrumental in deregulation of the banking/mortgage/insurance industries? How much blame does Clinton get for the mess we're in now?
Howard Kurtz: I didn't see the piece, but that's not disinformation -- the Republicans (led by Phil Gramm, McCain's confidant), pushed the 1999 law removing barriers between banking and insurance companies, among other things. There were Democratic objections, a compromise was reached, and Clinton signed the bill into law. To the extent that law contributed to the current crisis, the Democrats bear some responsibility -- but a lot has happened since 2000, and the Bush administration has to answer for its inaction as more and more mortgages were sliced and diced into risky and exotic instruments to avoid federal regulation. This created a shadow banking system that was great when home prices were soaring but ultimately collapsed like a house of cards.
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How about Will?: I guess George Will is also the "left's favorite righty, too, uh, Howie? "I suppose the McCain campaign's hope is that when there's a big crisis, people will go for age and experience," said Will. "The question is, who in this crisis looked more presidential, calm and un-flustered? It wasn't John McCain who, as usual, substituting vehemence for coherence, said 'let's fire somebody.' And picked one of the most experienced and conservative people in the administration, Chris Cox, and for no apparent reason. ... It was un-presidential behavior by a presidential candidate."
Donaldson then jumped in: "It was two days after the he said the fundamentals of the economy were strong. His talking points have gotten all mixed up. And I think the question of age is back on the table." ... The whole, painful, episode crested with Will leveling an even harsher blow. "John McCain showed his personality this week," said the writer and pundit, "and made some of us fearful."
Howard Kurtz: Yes, I mentioned the ABC exchange in this morning's blog.
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Winston-Salem, N.C.: I'm wondering how the recent financial meltdown will affect the questioning during the upcoming presidential debate. It seems to me that one key to doing well for Obama is to psychologically tie the economic burdens of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to instability at home.
Howard Kurtz: For the first debate, on Friday, the answer is "not much." That's because it's devoted to national security issues. I'm guessing that moderator Jim Lehrer will find a way to sneak in a couple of banking questions by tying them to the global financial crisis, but under the rules it seems that the main focus will be elsewhere.
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Laurel, Md.: Hi Howard. With the first debate being on foreign policy, do you think that either candidate may change the subject and discuss the economy, given all the incredible happenings in the past week or two? How much of an impact do you feel the debates will have on the election, and will the vice presidential debate matter much in the end?
Howard Kurtz: The presidential debates will be huge. In a close election, it's hard to think of another event as important as tens of millions of people getting to watch the two contenders face off three times.
I don't know if the candidates will have the leeway to make the first debate more about the economy. I'm sure Obama would like to try, especially given that national security is seen as closer to McCain's turf.
I'm sure the vice presidential debate will draw the biggest audience that any one of these running-mate face-offs ever have. In the end, I suspect most people will vote for the top of the ticket, as they always have.
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Washington: Howard, historically, how does the public react to candidates who clam up and don't engage with the press? Thanks for taking questions!
Howard Kurtz: Generally voters don't care that much unless the media make it a major issue, and even then that is sometimes dismissed as self-interested whining. But the point isn't that Sarah Palin is avoiding journalists -- who aren't all that popular these days -- it's that she is, except for a handful of exceptions, not communicating her views to American voters except through carefully staged and controlled appearances.
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Boston: I've read several stories talking about Gov. Palin's previous political debates -- most seem to contain anecdotes where Palin refers to papers or note cards she has brought with her. Has she ever done a debate without these aids? Will the vice presidential debate allow them?
Howard Kurtz: I don't know. She hasn't debated all that many times. I think notes are allowed at the presidential and vice presidential debates, but I'm not positive.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: Why does the press believe that it is proper to scrutinize the comments of a family's religious leader (i.e. Rev. Wright), but that the political comments of a family's political leader (i.e. the Alaska Independence Party leadership) are less relevant?
washingtonpost.com: Sliming Palin (FactCheck.org, Sept. 9)
Howard Kurtz: They're both fair game -- but because Gov. Palin, unlike her husband Todd, was not a member of the Alaska Independence Party, I don't see how it's fair to call that person the "family's political leader."
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Conyers, Ga.: This is an unashamed plug for the man-in-the-street article by Joel Achenbach. Speaking as a homeowner with a conventional mortgage, I agree with almost all of the people he interviewed and the responses he elicited. The proposed deal is "Cash for Trash," as the headline on Paul Krugman's New York Times column had it. And I and the rest of us with up-to-date mortgagees get nothing but a debt to pay off, and the worst excesses of congressional and executive "leadership." My one hope is that the lawmakers will read it and have it influence their coming negotiations.
washingtonpost.com: A Sense of Resentment Amid the 'For Sale' Signs (Post, Sept. 22)
Howard Kurtz: I don't blame anyone who handled their finances responsibly, declining to buy homes they couldn't afford, from feeling burned at having to bail out these huge corporations that acted recklessly and now are begging for a government rescue. The counterargument, of course, is that if the credit crisis isn't solved quickly, it will so devastate the economy that all of us will be hurt. That doesn't make the pill any easier to swallow.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Has the Post done on analysis of Obama's plans to deal with the current financial difficulties? Why he has chosen to neither support nor oppose the ongoing bailouts?
Howard Kurtz: He says he wants to proceed cautiously, given the magnitude of the problem, so there has been nothing to analyze. Obama is supposed to unveil his proposals today.
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Southeast Washington: When Obama and the talking heads mock McCain for saying the fundamentals of our economy are strong, why doesn't some smart reporter ask them about those fundamentals? Inflation is low, unemployment is very low by historical standards, productivity is up, and we're not in a recession (check the growth figures for the past year!). But you sell more papers predicting disaster than proclaiming everything's not too bad!
Howard Kurtz: The first point is certainly fair (although McCain backed off the comment with notable speed). The "fundamentals" could be sound, even in a recession or crisis -- anyone want to trade our economy for another country's? -- but I hardly think anyone is trying to sell papers by predicting disaster. There is a disaster unfolding, from Fannie/Freddie/Lehman/AIG to this $700-billion bailout that could end up costing even more, and we are covering it. In fact, news organizations would have been doing their duty if they had sounded a louder alarm in recent years about the risks of this shadow banking system now essentially that has collapsed.
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Dunn Loring VA: Is Page A3 of the Post considered more or less prominent than B1 (Metro front page)? I ask because it seems strange that a Biden rally with just 700 people gets inside front cover treatment but a McCain-Palin rally with 24,000 is just considered worthy of the local section.
Howard Kurtz: I'd say being on the Metro front is somewhat better display, so it makes sense that a local rally drawing 24,000 people for a vice presidential candidate would get the section front.
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Fair Lawn, N.J.: Don't want to mention "Brand X," but there was a moment to make every American shed a patriotic tear this morning in the Times, where left-of-center Paul Krugman and right-wing neocon Bill Kristol united in their opposition to the Paulson bailout. Makes me want to fly the flag today!
Howard Kurtz: It's actually a leading indicator of the fact that neither the left nor the right is ready to swallow this Paulson proposal whole, even though there is incredible pressure on Congress to act quickly.
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Bethesda, Md.: "Tens of millions of people getting to watch the two contenders face off three times." Let's not go overboard there -- I would be surprised if the debates can exceed 10 million each. These debates are so hokey, corny and 20th Century -- much like the flailing news industry, which is probably why they're being given so much attention by news outlets.
If we had a proactive, forward-thinking Fourth Estate, these silly, stilted presidential debates would have gone the way of the dodo 10 years ago. There are far better ways to test our candidates on the issues instead of standing them up in front of some television cameras and tossing them softballs. This country deserves better than this antiquated format propagated by a bunch of old fogies who think a newspaper is still worth the paper it's printed on.
Howard Kurtz: You've got a boatload of facts wrong. First of all, past debates have drawn as many as 70 million or 80 million viewers, so 50 million is hardly an unrealistic expectation this time around. Second, the media ain't in charge here -- the debates are orchestrated, in conjunction with the parties, by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which also picks the moderators.
And in my humble opinion, debates are a good way of seeing the candidates tested and challenged to think on their feet, just as they have been since the days of Lincoln-Douglass.
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Falls Church, Va.: Its seems to me that both Katie Couric and Sarah Palin have much to gain and/or lose in the interview. Certainly, Katie can get an immediate bump in the ratings, but if she goes too hard or too soft, she has the potential of hurting herself with voters. Similarly, Palin has to show that she can handle herself with one of the nation's nightly anchors. How do you expect the interview to play out?
Howard Kurtz: I don't know. I don't think the stakes are quite as high as when Charlie Gibson sat down with Palin, if only because this is her third television interview, not her first. Does Katie have more leeway to ask certain questions because she is a woman? Not sure. I agree, though, that it's a big moment for both of them.
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TV Ads: There's been a lot of talk about the truthfulness of the campaign ads, with some even accusing Sen. McCain of outright lies (something that didn't occur when there pretty egregious ads back in 2004). But shouldn't the system be better than forcing one campaign to respond and refute lies? Shouldn't they not be aired in the first place? Why can't the FEC or some governmental body regulate ads so that it's actually the truth and not just a shade of the truth?
Howard Kurtz: You don't want the government regulating political speech -- for one thing, it would be unconstitutional; for another, how would it be fair to have a group of commissioners appointed by a president of one party rule on the acceptability of commercials made by candidates of both parties?
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Deregulation: Has McCain been questioned about his past positions as a free-market advocate? He's all for more regulation and accountability now, but he has a fairly consistent, long-term view towards deregulation. Obama's campaign made a statement about it, but has the press questioned him about it?
Howard Kurtz: He was questioned about it on "60 Minutes" last night. I believe that was his first national interview since the Wall Street crisis exploded. He hasn't talked to his traveling press corps for more than a month, so there was no opportunity there.
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Fossil, Ore.: If the debate is confined to foreign policy, I think many of the avid followers simply will tune out. The debate should be open, and should cover the current economic problems.
Howard Kurtz: Well, blame the Commission on Presidential Debates. I'm not a big fan either of limiting a debate to one set of topics.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Obama's "Dos Caras" ad would have been a smear had it been directed at Rush Limbaugh -- by targeting McCain by insinuating the Limbaugh is one of McCain's Republican friends, the truth was turned on its head -- yet the media reaction was, with a few exceptions, quite muted. In more than few outlets, McCain received more criticism for his spinning of the poison-pill amendments (ridiculous as it was) than Obama did for what was little more than a reciting a litany of falsehoods. If McCain's venial sins draw harsher criticism than Obama's mortal sins, what is the motivation for either campaign to change?
Howard Kurtz: Every fact-check piece I read (and the one that I wrote) pointed out the misleading aspects of that Obama ad. (Maybe it got less attention because it was a Spanish-language spot, so you couldn't play it over and over for viewers.) And if you want to read a piece that is tough on Obama's ads, check out Ruth Marcus' Post column today.
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New Royalton, N.J.: I don't envy this news media covering the financial crisis. You could sit a dunderhead like me in front of a television set, prop my eyes open "A Clockwork Orange"-style, and still couldn't explain this crisis to me. And I'm educated. Perhaps that explains why some of us are so incensed at this bailout proposal. We (and by "we" I mean people like me, not everyone) don't really understand how we got into this mess, and don't know what would happen if the market took its course, and so are furious at this bailout.
Howard Kurtz: It's incredibly complicated. How many of us understand credit-default swaps and collateralized debt obligations? The problem is, many of the people who created these exotic instruments to evade federal regulation don't fully understand them either. Very reminiscent of what happened at Enron.
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Re: Brooks: Might I ask two questions about your Brooks piece today? First, do you believe the New York Times is absolutely allergic to opening its op-ed pages to a conservative voice who is open to pro-life views or opposed to gay marriage? Second, why no focus on how conservatives feel Brooks is insufficiently conservative to hold up the "conservative" end of debates on "NewsHour with Jim Lehrer"? Not enough space?
Howard Kurtz: I made quite clear that some conservatives are unhappy with Brooks -- in fact, that was the theme of the column, beginning with his criticism of Sarah Palin last week. As for the Times's choices, well, William Safire was pretty darn conservative for 30 years. But I think it's fair to say the Times does not now have an op-ed columnist as conservative as Safire, the old Nixon hand.
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Boston: So now that Obama has sat down for an interview with Bill O'Reilly, will McCain sit down with Keith Olbermann?
Howard Kurtz: Ah -- don't hold your breath. McCain has been interviewed a number of times by Chris Matthews, though.
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Princeton, W.Va.: It appears that the national media has, since the conventions, decided to pay attention to important presidential campaign issues instead of silly, unimportant snippets. I hope it keeps up. We need to understand where these candidates are coming from ... the future of America depends on it. The fact-checking is valuable. It was sadly missing in the past two presidential elections.
Howard Kurtz: I agree, but you're letting us off the hook. What about the two days we wasted on lipstick on a pig? It's only since Wall Street institutions began to crumble -- and everyone (including journalists) took the hit -- that the coverage has turned decidedly more serious. And, as you say, it's about time.
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Re: False advertising: Sorry, Mr. Kurtz, but I do want the government regulating political speech given that the alternative is that candidates air blatant, bald-faced lies again and again. I know the media has come out strongly against McCain's recent tactics, but all I hear from the media is that no one watches the news or reads the paper anymore. Do you think that more of America gets its info from the media column in The Washington Post, or from an ad they saw during "American Idol"?
Howard Kurtz: Well, I suggest you draft a Constitutional amendment that would, among other things, repeal the First Amendment.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Howard, what was your take on the "60 Minutes" interview that featured McCain and Obama. I thought that Steve Croft's segment was quite balanced and asked the tough questions of Obama. Scott Pelley, on the other hand, was a little passive toward McCain. I'm not sure if it is a question of interview styles -- perhaps Croft is from the Mike Wallace school of tough interviewing. Why not have one correspondent -- Croft or Leslie Stahl -- interview both candidates?
Howard Kurtz: I thought both the Kroft and Pelley interviews were pretty good.
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Washington: Is there a way for the press to take a politician to task for not answering questions? This goes for all of the politicians. Instead of a guestimated number of people at yadda yadda yadda rally, maybe "after a campaign rally at yadda yadda yadda, candidate John Q. Public refused to answer any questions about their policies or their running mate's policies." There's gotta be some way to use the power of the microphone to hold them more accountable. Alternately, the press as a whole could just not cover someone who doesn't talk to them or tries to use the press as a straw man.
Howard Kurtz: We do it -- perhaps not enough -- but I'm not sure most people care. And in Palin's case, if she continues to sit down with the likes of Gibson and Couric, it will be hard to make the case that she's avoiding serious interviews altogether -- even if she is stiffing the rest of us on a day-to-day basis.
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Alexandria, Va.: Howard, what will you be looking at in particular during the first presidential debate?
Howard Kurtz: Which candidate sighs the most.
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Crystal City, Va.: I don't understand your Media Notes column today. Is The Post guilty of flimsy sourcing for two reports and an editorial citing ties between Raines and the Obama campaign, or are you arguing that The Post reported limited, unsubstantial ties between Obama/Raines and the McCain ad stretched these connections into more than actually was there?
Howard Kurtz: I simply am saying that The Post accurately quoted Franklin Raines several months ago as saying he had offered some advice to Obama's campaign. Neither Raines nor the Obama camp ever asked for a correction. But for the McCain camp to then label Raines an Obama adviser, as if he were part of some inner circle, is a real stretch -- especially given that Obama himself says he only briefly met Raines once.
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Arlington, Va.: Regarding the New York Times and conservative columnists, although Brooks has evolved, he was a conservative when he was selected to write a column. And of course there is Bill Kristol!
Howard Kurtz: And Brooks still would describe himself as a conservative.
Kristol is a different case. His main job, of course, is as editor of the Weekly Standard, and my understanding is that the Times gig is just for this election year.
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Washington: Is AIG being called a bailout? Because it really isn't a bailout. The money lent by the government must be repaid with interest, and the government gets control of the company.
Howard Kurtz: It is absolutely, positively a government bailout that gives the feds effective control of a company that otherwise was going under. Chrysler repaid its money eventually, but that didn't make it any less of a bailout.
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Comment and question: Though the media apparently did not come up with the term "First Dude" to describe Sarah Palin's husband, making him appear folksy, they have used it extensively as though it's clever. At first, perhaps; now it's tiring -- real tiring. Also, did you see last week's Sean Hannity interview with Sarah Palin? Opinions? He did feed her lots of leading questions/comments, though others have done the same with Obama (e.g. Jon Stewart).
Howard Kurtz: It was incredibly soft -- the friendliest interview I've seen since Keith Olbermann sat down with Obama.
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What?: You say McCain hasn't talked to his traveling press corps in a month? Isn't that big news, given that he portrayed himself as being at the helm of the "Straight Talk Express," and that the access he granted to his press corps is what gave him so much favorable ink in the first place? Next thing we know, you'll tell us that he's stopped having barbecues at his "cabin" near Sedona.
Howard Kurtz: It's medium news. I wrote that he had stopped talking to the press several weeks ago, when I traveled with the campaign. Others have mentioned it. The Straight Talk Express is dead.
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Friday?: Why is the debate on Friday? In 2004 the Friday debate had around 46 million viewers, compared to around 62 for the first debate. Seems like a poor choice. Isn't TV viewership down on Fridays?
Howard Kurtz: Yes, and I can't understand it. I think Friday night is a terrible choice.
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Detroit: "What about the two days we wasted on lipstick on a pig?" I am sure you miss those days.
Howard Kurtz: Not me -- the whole thing made me cringe.
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Anonymous: So it would take repealing the First Amendment to not allow a politician to do things like accuse his opponent of supporting sex ed for kindergartners? Couldn't just have a requirement that if you are going to take federal money and use the government-supported airways, you have to tell the truth?
Howard Kurtz: Folks, listen up: Who exactly is going to determine what the "truth" is? Unelected bureaucrats? That's why the media's role is so important here in fact-checking ads that either stretch or obliterate the truth. People can argue with our analyses, but at least we raise the questions and provide the background and context. At that point the political marketplace can sort it out.
Thanks for the chat, folks.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 22, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Roads and Rails
BYLINE: Eric Weiss and Lena Sun, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3727 words
HIGHLIGHT: Do you think Metro has grown unreliable and become downright unpleasant? Or are you happy with your commutes on rail and bus? Does the thought of the intercounty connector (ICC) keep you up at night or does it seem like it's long overdue? And what of the moves by Maryland and Virginia to encourage the private sector to build road projects, such as widening the Capital Beltway?
Do you think Metro has grown unreliable and become downright unpleasant? Or are you happy with your commutes on rail and bus? Does the thought of the intercounty connector (ICC) keep you up at night or does it seem like it's long overdue? And what of the moves by Maryland and Virginia to encourage the private sector to build road projects, such as widening the Capital Beltway?
Washington Post staff writers Eric Weiss and Lena Sun were online Monday, Sept. 22 at 11 a.m. ET to answer your questions, feel your pain and share the drama of getting from Point A to Point B.
A transcript follows.
Discussion Archive
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Eric Weiss: Good morning commuters!
Please, please, pelt us with your questions about your miserable commute.
But please, no questions about the nation's financial meltdown. Keeping the Yellow and Blue Line's final destinations is about all we can keep in our tiny heads.
Okay, let's go...
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Chevy Chase, Md.: I received a speeding ticket in Upstate New York. The offense on the ticket was "disobeyed traffic control device" (I assume that refers to the speed limit sign), an offense that earns you 3 points on your license in New York. Driving 15 MPH over the speed limit gets you 4. However, the same offenses in Maryland get you only 2 points. Both New York and Maryland are members of the compact that share driving records. So, my question is, once I am convicted (I intend to plead guilty unless the officer doesn't show up in court), how many points are actually going to appear on my record?
Eric Weiss: We are not lawyers, although Lena has some sharp business suits.
I put a call in to Maryland State Police for you, maybe they will have an answer.
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Washington, D.C.: What was up today on the Orange line! What the ... ?
Lena Sun: Hi there. a lot of you were probably inconvenienced this a.m. by the Orange Line problems. At about 8:13, an Orange Line train had a brake problem, and I believe that train had to be taken out of service and there was single-tracking. It probably did not help matters that a passenger on the train tried to get off the train, according to what another passenger just told me. At about 9:14 a.m., there was a sick passenger at Rosslyn.
But I did see the advisories about the Blue/Orange delays and what was causing them.
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Washington, D.C.: I saw this quote in the story this morning:
"The blue-and-green SmarTrip cards play a principal role in how people use transit in the Washington region. By next month, all regional bus systems in the area will accept SmarTrip. In January, Metro plans to eliminate paper transfers, the free bus-to-bus transfers and the discounted rail-to-bus transfers. Those transfers are automatically computed for SmarTrip users."
Does this mean that Prince George's county The Bus is finally coming online with SmarTrip next month?
washingtonpost.com: SmarTrip Upgrades Pushed To 2010: Metro Audit Finds Agency Failings
Lena Sun: Yes, that's what I understand. TheBus is the last of the regional bus systems to get SmarTrip working on the fareboxes. All the other bus systems have them, some of them for nearly a year now. Makes traveling much more convenient.
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Washington, D.C.: Is it legal for cyclists to be on the Clara Barton Parkway, specifically the uppermost portion near Great Falls, where the speed limit is posted at 50 mph? What about the lower portion, closest to Chain Bridge, where the speed limit is posted at 35 mph? And what the George Washington Memorial Parkway? Thanks.
Eric Weiss: Oy, I think you would be crazy to ride your bike on the GW Parkway (especially where there is a parallel bike path) But I put a call in on your behalf with the National Park Service, which runs these roads, to see if there is any specific prohibition.
That's all I plan to do today for the chat. Put out calls. Provide no answers, just put out some calls. Can someone rub my back and get me an iced tea?
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Silver Spring: What is going to happen to the new Navy Yard Metro entrance/exit near the baseball park once the season is over? It pretty clearly looks like it needs some more work. Will those of us who live nearby still be able to use it, or will we have to walk down to the DOT to access Metro?
Eric Weiss: That is a permanent entrance/exit. The building is being built around it.
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New Carrollton, Md.: Hello. Regarding the article on SmarTrip card upgrades: I thought that it was strange that people could not load Metro passes onto SmarTrip cards. This is an inconvenience to those who use the parking lot at stations like New Carrollton, where the same SmarTrip card must be used for paying train and parking fees, in order to get the reduced parking charge. My question is what agency does Marta in Atlanta use for their BreezeCards and has that agency been considered by Metro? Atlantans can load Marta passes onto their BreezeCards. Their program is less than 2 years old. What gives?
washingtonpost.com: SmarTrip Upgrades Pushed To 2010: Metro Audit Finds Agency Failings
Lena Sun: Not sure which agency MARTA uses but the fare system and pass system here are much more complicated because there are all these additional regional partners. The goal is to load 256 different pass products on your smart card. Given all the difficulties getting these software upgrades, I asked Metro whether it would make sense to go with another company. They said no. And remember, Metro has already paid Cubic $15 million. Starting next month, there will be devices in some Giant stores and 12 commuter stores to let you reload your card, which will be more convenient than waiting in line at a fare machine on a busy day.
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Arlington, Va.: Communication during metros morning Orange line meltdown was horrific. The Web site only that a train malfunctioned...which usually means 15 minutes. Nowhere were the words Massive Delays or an accurate description of what happened found. On the trains, they car I was in...when the driver tried to speak it was aloud static, which we worse than silence.
With all of these troubles...why are we talking about extension? Double track, or create security lanes, or something before we extend the boondoggle.
Lena Sun: Lots of complaints about Orange Line this morning. Going to post this for the Metro folks who are supposed to be making communications better.
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Unfortunate Orange Liner: I'm sure you'll be getting many angry, frustrated posts from those of us affected by the disaster on the Orange Line this morning. Fortunately, I was not one of those trapped on the train. Still, I couldn't get on a train, couldn't get on a bus (due to the hundreds of people in line), and couldn't get a taxi (all were in use). I ended up walking home again, getting my car, and driving to the office in bumper-to-bumper traffic, parking in a garage downtown which left me $17 poorer today.
I think the Smashing Pumpkins lyric "Despite all my rage, I am still just a rat in a cage" sums up the situation of those who chose to live and work depending on the metro. I'll never get rid of my car, that's for sure!
Lena Sun: Oh jeez. You had a bad morning.
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Leesburg, VA: Where can I find out the status of Battlefield Parkway link to Route 7, now that the new section over the Greenway has opened?
Eric Weiss: Try these links:
http://www.virginiadot.org/projects/northernvirginia/battlefield_parkway_extension.asp or www.battlefieldparkway.com
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Fairfax, VA:"It probably did not help matters that a passenger on the train tried to get off the train, according to what another passenger just told me."
Explain what this means. Oh, and were nonexistent Metro Police nowhere to be found to cite this passenger for disrupting operations?
Lena Sun: Apparently a woman tried to use the emergency lever to get the train doors open. Then she tried to open the door between the rail cars.
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Shaw: Doesn't the software already exist to employ discount programs on SmartTrip-style cards? Why does Metro/Cubic have to start from scratch here?
Lena Sun: Seems like a lot of the problem has to do with making sure the system that Cubic is upgrading can "interface" with the system that is used by the SmarTrip customer service center, which is run by a different company.
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Bowie, MD:"I put a call in to Maryland State Police for you, maybe they will have an answer."
They NEVER know...They refer you to the MVA, who also don't know. There's really no way to know until the points show up on your record, which is ridiculous because one point can cost hundreds of dollars in insurance premiums. There are numerous examples of citations that seem "minor" that can cause irrepariable harm to your driving record and/or insurance, but the officials responsible for levying points don't know their own system.
Eric Weiss: Aha, so I see Bowie has already done some reporting on the topic.
If you schlep up to upstate NY to challenge the ticket, simply ask the judge. If he/she doesn't know, wait until it shows up on your record (if it ever does). Since you are a Maryland driver, you should only receive the 2 points that Maryland permits for the same offense. If you get the four points, I would challege it with MVA.
Now where is my $150 an hour?
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20th & K: A small weekend observation - With the region's 24/7 car traffic, why are the 395/95 HOV lanes kept Southbound on Saturdays?
Luckily I missed the inbound bridge mess on Saturday, but the huge delays extended past the Pentagon on Saturday and could have been relieved a little with the addition of INBOUND HOV lanes.
Eric Weiss: The traffic counts say that is where most of the traffic is heading.
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Potomac, MD: Maybe I misread something, but did I see that Metro plans to do away with paper rail to bus transfers next year? What happens to people who use the weekly pass? These won't get converted to electronic format to 2010 (or probably later). I'd hate to have to pay the full bus fare everyday because Metro continued to drop the ball on putting the weekly rail pass in electronic format.
Lena Sun: You can still use your weekly pass. The passes don't go away, just the transfers. After they eliminate the paper transfers, you will need a SmarTrip card to get the benefit of the bus-bus transfer or the rail-bus transfer. That capability is already on the smart cards now.
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Arlington, Va.: Driving south on the GW parkway, just after entering from 495, there's an electric sign that says "Commercial vehicles prohibited." What does this mean and why the new sign?
Eric Weiss: My guess is that it means that trucks and commercial vehicles are prohibited on the Parkway.
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Arlington, VA: What did Catoe say about funding Metro's capital needs this morning?
Lena Sun: Catoe said the overall figure that Metro needs is more than $11 billion over 10 years, starting from July 2010. They have enough capital funds until then, but after that, Metro and its local and state partners--and hopefully the feds--need to come up with more capital funds. will be posting story about this shortly.
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Vienna, VA: Have any interchange configurations or lane layouts been released yet for the beltway HOT lanes in Virginia? Will elected officials or citizens be given any input as to how these configurations are to be done (I-66 east traffic exiting to I-495 north (inner loop) SHOULD feed to the right lanes, not the left as they do now).
If construction is going on, they must have some rough idea what they're doing, and what they should look like when/if they're done in 2020, especially the I-495/I-66 interchange that has already seen some structural supports put into place.
Eric Weiss: Check our www.virginahotlanes.com. They have some detailed descriptions of the layout. The HOT lanes interchange with I-66 was given lots of thought, since that could be a major bottleneck.
As for input into the project, since it was largely negotiated behind closed doors, you can forget about it. They did have some public hearings, but that was just to explain what had already largely been decided.
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Washington, DC: Federal employee here, works near Union Station, commutes via the Red Line.
Wouldn't it help ease the traffic problems in this area (including the increasingly unreliable MetroRail) to begin to move federal agencies out of central DC into the burbs, preferably close to a MetroRail or MARC or VRE station? I would give anything to be able to reverse commute to White Flint via the Red Line, where the NRC is located. Spreading the pain -- I mean, federal agencies -- around this area seems to me to be a viable means to control traffic and transporatation problems. Sure, some people will have an increased commute, but something has to be done and I think this region's biggest employer should be in the forefront of solutions.
Eric Weiss: That would probably be the worst possible solution. The Metro system and our road system is designed to bring people in from the 'burbs to Central DC. It is not so good at circulating folks from suburb to suburb. One of the major reasons we are such a mess is that people are traveling from burb to burb because we have so many regional job centers without the infrastructure to support them.
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Re. points: Try an insurance agent, they usually know the points rules.
Eric Weiss: Good suggestion.
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Silver Spring, Md.: After the crash of 1929 the Federal government created huge programs that included a lot of new infrastructure to get the economy going. After the Japanese real estate bubble (and credit market crash) of 1990, their government began a massive infrastructure program to get the economy going.
Are McCain or Obama talking about any major infrastructure initiatives? Do you know if WMATA has people working The Hill the be sure Metrorail is included in any big bill coming up next year?
Lena Sun: Metro and several of the other large transit agencies are working to double the amount of capital funds set aside for transit when the current federal transportation funding legislation expires next September. If they are successful, Metro is hoping to get an additional $275 million in federal dollars a year, double what it is getting now. But that's a lot of ifs.
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Alexandria, VA: I have a couple of questions about the new Wilson Bridge...
1. Why is the bike/pedestrian lane taking sooooo long to complete (don't give me some "paint staging" excuse)? The spiral ramps on the Maryland side don't look anywhere near finished, and contractors appear to be taking their time finishing this stage of the project.
2. If, as it has been said, the bike/pedestrian lane needs to be used for staging paint equipment, I would like know first why a BRAND NEW bridge needs to be painted after it's been completed, and/or why they can't stage equipment on barges or like they did during the primary construction?
The majority of the project is completed, yet is appears (as it can during most constrcution projects) that the finishing touches are taking forever, and are not being coordinated with the same amount of effort as the majority of the project. We should NOT let these contractors off the hook and ensure that this project gets completed, and soon!
Eric Weiss: I will once again provide the paint staging "excuse" because that is what they tell me. The project is, as far as I know, still on time.
If you've ever had an addition put on your house, you know it is the final touches that seem to take the longest.
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Car-free day biker: I heard on the radio today that the District is raising the fines for some traffic violations. I laughed. Wouldn't someone have to actually be ISSUED a citation for said violation? Won't that be like SAYING driving while cell-phoning is illegal, but ignoring it on the road?
Eric Weiss: Perhaps DC Police are too busy talking on their cellphones in their patrol cars to notice violators...
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Washington, DC: Re: SmarTrip-only transfers on buses in 2009... This change is going to unfairly target poor communities that are heavily reliant on buses for transportation. How does Metro think this will go down on the first day that they do not allow paper transfers?
Lena Sun: Metro is going to make it easier for people to buy a SmarTrip card. Once you have a card, and load it with fare, it will automatically calculate those free bus transfers. That's already happening now. Metro has also distributed free smart cards to regional service agencies to give to low-income riders. People will still get the transfers, but they have to use the cards.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Yesterday and last week (in the sweltering heat), I saw several dozen Metro buses coming and going from Fed Ex Field, on my walk from Morgan Boulevard Metro station. Why are Metro buses able to do this? My understanding of the new regulations prevent public (tax-supported) buses from being used for private functions. My blood literally boiled last week when I saw the Metro buses being used. Are these being used to transport people to private and/or public parking spaces? Clearly, Metro buses are still doing some sort of business for the Redskins, as the buses marquees read "FED EX FIELD". If Metro is not permitted to transport people from New Carrolton, then what other transportation are the able to provide to Fed Ex? More importantly, how and why are they able to provide this other service, but not the New Carrolton service??? Thank you.
Lena Sun: Yes, there are new FTA regulations governing all this. But Metro was able to get a waiver for the first two exhibition games and the first two home games. So yesterday was the last day. Metrobuses were running from the McCormick lot and the Apollo lot yesterday.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: If no commercial vehicles on the GW Parkway, then why all the tour buses? Why doesn't Park Police enforce this actively?
Eric Weiss: A Park Police spokeman said there are no commercial vehicles on the Parkways, although there are some exemptions, such as for tour buses and vehicles heading to Reagan National Airport.
Also, for the earlier questioner regarding bicycles, they are not allowed on the roadway of parkways.
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Wilson Bridge: I disagree with the Alexandria resident who complained about the bike lanes on the Wilson Bridge. It seems to me that finishing the vehicular portion of the bridge will give the maximum benefit to the largest number of people and that therefore the contractors are doing the right thing by focusing on the road rather than on the pedestrian/bike facility. (If they could finish the express lane portion of the Beltway prior to Thanksgiving it would be a major coup.)
Eric Weiss: But boy, will that bike path over the bridge be sweet when it opens...
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New Carrollton, Md.: Hello again. I noticed that Yellow Line trains now run Northbound to Greenbelt. Is this change permanent and at all times? I can't find information about this on Metro's Web site. Thanks!
Lena Sun: Hi. Before the afternoon rush hour begins, there are a couple of Yellow Line trains that start out from Huntington and head up to Greenbelt and then turn around to become Green Line trains coming back downtown during rush hour.
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Washington, DC: Oh wise ones,
If Metro says there is a 15 minute delay, what exactly does that mean? That there is 15 minutes between the trains where the problem is? That people can on average expect to be 15 minutes later than they plan? That it will take them 15 minutes to remove the broken train from service? Or after the remove the broken train I can expect to wait 15 minutes for 3 full trains to pass by before there's one with space for me?
I've never understood what on earth a "15 minute delay" is supposed to mean.
Lena Sun: That's the tricky part. Everyone wants to know how long the delays are going to be, and it really all depends on where you are in the system when the breakdown occurs. That's why Metro folks have been reluctant to give estimates for exactly those reasons.
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Capitol Hill: What exactly caused the backup on the 14th street bridge on Saturday? A friend was stuck for 45 minutes, going nowhere...
Eric Weiss: According to DDOT is installing new electronic signage in the area to help traffic move more smoothly, and while most of the work is done at night, the contractor ran into trouble and had to continue during the day Saturday, causing a major traffic jam.
This is called irony.
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"You can still use your weekly pass. The passes don't go away, just the transfers.": Can I ask a follow-up to make sure I understand this? I think what you are saying is that someone who rides the bus and the trains will now have to make a choice:
(a) He can buy the Metrorail weekly pass, which requires a paper farecard, and save money on the trains, but he will now have to pay the full bus fare because of the elimination of paper transfers.
--OR--
(b) He can get a SmarTrip card and get the discounted transfer rate on the bus, but he won't be able to get the discounted weekly pass rate on Metrorail because that requires a paper farecard, and you won't be able to do the bus-to-rail transfer with a SmarTrip card if you're using the paper farecard.
Seems like more WMATA boneheadedness.....
Lena Sun: Sit tight. I've got a call into the folks now to see what the fix is going to be for this.
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Lena Sun: Folks, we are out of time. I know a lot of you asked about transfers and I'll be getting that information out to you when I get an answer from Metro. Thanks for your good questions. Talk to you next time, and sorry about the mixup this morning that said Dr. Gridlock was going to be chatting. He's up next week. Save all the really tough ones for him.:)
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 22, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 5157 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Anne E. Kornblut was online Monday, Sept. 22 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
____________________
Anne E. Kornblut: Hi everyone -- thanks so much for joining today. Send all your questions on in.
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Malvern, Pa.: Hi Anne. What are the odds that (if McCain is elected) Sarah Palin turns out to be a lot smarter and a lot better than many people today give her credit for? While I thought it was a boldly craven pick, it may prove to be political genius in getting McCain elected. Do you think it also will prove to be genius in helping him govern? And if something happens to McCain, how would you envision a Palin presidency?
Anne E. Kornblut: Great question. I don't think anyone who's covered Palin for the past few weeks has any doubts about her political skill -- she obviously has done an amazing job of igniting excitement in the Republican Party and has survived (or better than, depending on what you thought) her first two interviews. But as to how she would be as a vice president -- or, if that scenario you laid out were to come to pass, president -- I think the public still is learning about her. Hopefully she will start to open up so that the public has a chance to make an informed choice.
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Re: Taxes and Truth: I'm posting early because my babysitter will be leaving soon and I want to get this question in: What responsibility, if any, do you think the media bears for correcting the mistaken but apparently very widely held view that Barack Obama wants to raise taxes on most Americans? In particular, why do you think we don't see articles with headlines like "Sen. Obama's Plan Will Lower Taxes on Middle Class" that both directly take on misinformation spread by McCain's campaign and explores the pros and cons of Obama's plan?
washingtonpost.com: The Fact-Checker: Taxing Promises (washingtonpost.com, Sept. 17)
Anne E. Kornblut: Thanks for the question. Certainly we all have covered this issue a lot -- in fact I suspect one reason some people even know there is a debate about it is because of the coverage -- but it's a fair point. For those who aren't up to speed: Obama's tax plan would raise taxes on people making more than $250,000, but cut taxes for 95 percent of taxpayers, especially the middle class. See our fact-checker's assessment, linked here. McCain has been saying the opposite on the campaign trail.
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Fort Myers, Fla.: Palin is said to have drawn 60,000 people to a rally in Lady Lakes the other day, but many local people estimate the crowd to be closer to 20,000. I've heard this disconnect often regarding Palin's stated attendance vs. her actual attendance. Is this common for all candidates?
Anne E. Kornblut: Oh, the crowd question! Let me state, for the record, that I'm terrible at estimating crowd size, so I can understand how the campaigns occasionally get the figures wrong. Having said that, the problem the McCain campaign has run into is citing official sources (such as the Secret Service) for their crowd estimates, when in fact the Secret Service does not keep such records.
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Palm City, Fla.: Where are Sarah Palin's tax returns? We were told that the campaign had them and they would be made public. When, right after the election?
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for reminding me about this. You are right, the McCain campaign said they would release her records, but have not -- nor have they released her medical records, as is standard practice. We shall ask again.
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Winston Salem, N.C.: Help us understand how the McCain campaign, which is not part of Alaska government, can control what the office of the governor of Alaska says and does? Why are they able to intervene in state politics? Is Todd Palin overstepping his bounds or role as First Dude? What does this say about the governor and her judgment? Thank you.
Anne E. Kornblut: If I'm reading your question correctly, then I think the answer is that the McCain campaign is able to help run Palin's communications shop on the ground in Alaska -- while not necessarily running the actual government of the state. Since she was picked, McCain has moved a team up there to keep an eye on things, and to make sure that investigative reporters don't run too amok with her record. As for Todd Palin, he certainly seems to have played a significant role in her stewardship, and some of the stories seem to raise questions about the proper boundaries of that. But "overstepping bounds" is probably a subjective call -- something that could change if Gov. Palin had a security clearance.
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Bethesda, Md.: Do regular voters really know Joe Biden? I follow politics fairly closely, and I don't feel like I really know him. Will it be an advantage to have Biden kind of reintroduced to the voters?
Anne E. Kornblut: It's funny, Sen. Biden is one of the most well-known figures in Washington, having been around here so long, but he has taken something of a backseat in the past few weeks -- my friend Mark Leibovich at the New York Times described him as playing "fourth or fifth fiddle" in a piece over the weekend that you should read if you have not. Get ready for the vice presidential debate on Oct. 2!
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Menomonie, Wis.: Those are two great articles on this morning's Washington Post about the bailouts. Wouldn't it be a lot cheaper to just pay off the mortgage of every homeowner who is in trouble than to bail out these huge firms that basically have made their own beds? Thank you.
Anne E. Kornblut: Great point -- it would be nice if they'd pay off our mortgages, wouldn't it?
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Fossil, Ore.: Considering the economic mess our economy is in, is it wise to turn over the large amount of bailout moneys to the secretary of the Treasury with no oversight, nor any need to report to the Congress before December? After watching the decline and falling of the U.S., it would seem the first criteria for any presidential candidate would be to have their mental competency tested.
Anne E. Kornblut: I think that's one reason you're seeing a demand in Congress (and not just from Democrats) for a large degree of oversight in this bailout plan. One Obama adviser said to me last week when we were out on the road that, watching the markets, it is a pretty daunting job these days to be fighting so hard for the presidency.
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Orlando, Fla.: Where does the Republican Party stand with regard to Sarah Palin's record on the protection of Alaskan wildlife and Alaskan ecology? The cruel treatment of animals is of great concern to millions of people. Promoting the aerial hunting of wolves and bears, suing the government to delist polar bears and putting profits ahead of protecting the pristine Alaskan environment are not values that appeal to many voters. Some people are deciding not to support the Republican ticket after learning of Governor Sarah Palin's record regarding the treatment wolves, bears, moose and Beluga whales -- regardless of how they may feel about other issues.
Anne E. Kornblut: I do not know the answer to this, but if you don't mind, I'll pass along the question to my colleague Juliet Eilperin, who is an environmental reporter extraordinaire.
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Kensington, Md.: I keep asking, but haven't gotten an answer to, the following question. Apparently Gov. Palin and her aides used their private email accounts to hash out public business. It's fairly clear (to me) that at least in the cases of the firings discussions and the polar bear issue, this was done to evade public scrutiny of the policy process. (Palin later penned an "all is good" editorial that utterly flew in the face of her own scientists' findings.) Beyond this being an "improper" thing for a supposedly "reform-minded" governor to do, is it actually illegal? Was it illegal when Rove did it with the attorney firings? It seems like this ought to be a yes-or-no question. Thanks.
Anne E. Kornblut: Let me add to your frustration by saying I don't know the answer. My recollection is that it's not illegal to use a personal e-mail account for nonsecret exchanges; but that there is also no legal guarantee that those e-mails won't be subpoenaed in the event of an investigation. And certainly it does raise questions about transparency -- not to mention judgment and security, given how easily a regular e-mail address can be hacked, as we have seen.
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Valdosta, Ga.: Anne, re: last night on "60 Minutes," I thought it was strange that Sen. McCain said he would cut off sugar subsidies. Aren't the big sugar producers in FL almost all Republicans? I thought that was an odd comment, given that Florida is still in play, and seemed to go directly against the voters he needs to keep in his column. Your thoughts?
Anne E. Kornblut: I had that exact same thought. If true, it certainly presents an example of McCain's continuing to push against voters he needs...
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Austin, Texas: Hi Anne. What do you see the campaigns focusing on in the media this week leading up to the debate on Friday?
Anne E. Kornblut: Well, we just had a story meeting here, and got to thinking about this question ourselves. It is a pretty sure bet that the economy will continue to dominate -- and that both sides will try to lower expectations as Friday approaches. But because the main topic on Friday is ostensibly foreign policy, there probably will be continued discussions of Pakistan, terrorism and the meetings this week at the United Nations. Stay tuned...
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Arlington, Va.: The Obama campaign is slinging mud with the best of them. This is a stark departure from past Democratic presidential nominees, who always were hesitant to fight back and always appeared weak to the electorate. Why the change?
Anne E. Kornblut: I don't know, it feels to me like every four years both sides wind up slinging mud, and the degree to which it's perceived to be that way is fairly subjective. Certainly, though, Obama has said that he wants to stand up to the Republican "attack machine," and his advisers were wary of what happened to Kerry in 2004 when he did not push back against the Swift Boat veterans.
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Re: Medical Records: "Nor have they released her medical records, as is standard practice. We shall ask again." Given that Sen. Obama only released a one-page summary of his medical records, and refused to have his doctor answer questions about his health, perhaps you could also ask the Obama/Biden campaign too, if you want to be fair.
Anne E. Kornblut: Yes, absolutely, we have asked both sides. And for anyone who is keeping track, McCain let a handful of reporters look at his medical records for a short period of time earlier this year, but would not allow them to be Xeroxed or taken out of the room.
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Philadelphia: "I don't think anyone who's covered Palin over the last few weeks has any doubts about her political skill -- she has obviously done an amazing job of igniting excitement in the Republican Party." Okay, help me here. Political skill? Tell me one thing Palin has shown (other than her physical traits of being an appealing-looking woman) since being nominated that goes beyond a natural gift for public speaking, which may have been enhanced by her training as a sportscaster?
Anne E. Kornblut: Entirely good point., but two measures of political skill are the abilities to either get elected or get picked, and to draw crowds, and she is doing both. That is a separate question from having good governing skills, and we also will see how sustainable her political skills are as the weeks go on.
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Atlanta: I don't sense any effort from the McCain to lower expectations for Sarah Palin regarding the vice presidential debate. Is it too early for that, or are they just expecting the conventional wisdom (Biden will be mean to her) to carry the day?
Anne E. Kornblut: I don't know, but I surely will ask. Thanks for the thought.
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"Make sure that investigative reporters don't run too amok with her record.": How much is too amok? I personally would like to see a lot more amokness among reporters.
Anne E. Kornblut: Me too! I love amokness -- generally. I the McCain campaign, however, would like to keep investigative reporters (well, all reporters, in fact) away in a lockbox.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. Well, not so good, obviously. Just to let you Beltway insiders know, people in flyover country are keeping up with the crisis on Wall Street, and my very strong sense is that, above all, we're looking for leadership. It would be great if Bush could give a speech like the one he gave to Congress after Sept. 11. And it would be great if Obama or McCain would propose something visionary and forward-looking, rather than reactionary and backward-looking. If either one could pull that off, he'd shoot up in the polls. Also, the coming debate on foreign policy seems really pointless right now. No question, just some comments.
Anne E. Kornblut: And thank you for them. Keep paying attention -- you're going to hear more from the candidates in the days ahead.
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Fairfax, Va.: Can we start some non-monetary betting pools here on Washington Post chats? Like, odds the public debt to the penny crosses $10 trillion before President Bush leaves office? It currently stands at 9,664,631,803,259.07. A little less than four months to go!
Anne E. Kornblut: Way more fun than the electoral college betting pool. Or depressing.
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Suburban Cincinnati: Good morning, Anne. Here is a more light-hearted topic: The Ohio Republican Party is bashing Joe Biden for his remarks about how the University of Delaware football team would beat (to put it politely) the Ohio State football team. While Ohio State will not win the college national title this year, to say that is like denying the Pope is Catholic here in Ohio. (I got a master's degree from Ohio State and yes, I'm a fan.) Here's the citation. I can appreciate loyalty towards one's alma mater, but this is kinda stupid for Joe Biden.
Anne E. Kornblut: But would it be worse if he pandered? This is a constant in politics -- every four years, candidates campaigning in New Hampshire suddenly become Red Sox fans. And none of them will admit to liking the Redskins. Where's the fun in that?
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"60 Minutes": Didn't McCain also say he'd cut the defense budget? That seems strange ... what does he say is excessive spending in the defense budget?
Anne E. Kornblut: If I heard the interview correctly, he did not specify what, exactly, he would cut in the defense budget. That struck me as a good point for a debate questioner to follow up on.
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Annapolis, Md.: Speaking of Todd Palin. Since the big row over Hillary's involvement with the health insurance issue during Bill's years, how will Gov. Palin be able to have Todd sit in on her meetings as vice president if elected? I am beginning to think that, as suave as she seems to be, she would not be able to do as well as she has as governor of Alaska, if she does not have Todd.
washingtonpost.com: 'First Dude' Todd Palin Illustrates Alaska's Blend of Private and Public (Post, Sept. 22)
Anne E. Kornblut: My understanding is that there are security constraints when it comes to the White House/OEOB -- Sen. Clinton, for example, did not have national security clearance, and did not sit in on the most top-secret meetings. So there is little question that Todd Palin would have to play a different role here than in Alaska.
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Rolla, Mo.: The one candidate on either ticket whose positions we know the least about will be protected by the format in the sole vice presidential debate. The McCain campaign all but admitted this was because Biden is an experienced debater and they didn't want her at a disadvantage. However, there are clips available of her gubernatorial debate, where she seems a skilled debater. Doesn't this really boil down to protecting her lack of knowledge vs. her inexperience in debating?
washingtonpost.com: Format of Biden-Palin Debate Sets No Limit on Subject Matter (Post, Sept. 21)
Anne E. Kornblut: Fair question. I have gone back and listened to a lot of Gov. Palin's old debates from when she was running for governor, and there is no question she performed very smoothly.
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Taxes: It's so funny how taxes again have become the major issue for the GOP. I guess it's all fundamental. My mother attended an Obama rally in Florida this weekend; two planes flew overhead with banners that read "Florida is McCain/Palin territory" and "Raising Taxes is Not Patriotic" Wise way to spend their campaign funds?
Anne E. Kornblut: I wonder how much those planes cost? And what was the goal -- to scare off Obama supporters? In all seriousness, often there are protestors from the other side outside rallies -- as a show of force -- so that does not surprise me. We saw a plane with a pro-Palin banner in Nevada two weeks ago, as well.
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Fairfax, Va.: The last McCain's rally in Northern Virginia was hugely successful. Do you think the GOP will regroup and capture more women's votes in Northern Virginia?
Anne E. Kornblut: I'm not sure if this was the same one you were referring to, but I was at the one in Fairfax (Van Dyck park) a few weeks ago, and you are right -- it was very well-attended. It is too early to predict how Virginia will go -- stay tuned -- but certainly that event gave the Republicans hope that the Obama inroads may not be as great as they appeared.
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Washington: I'm just laughing at the people who are foaming at the mouth at Todd Palin's involvement in Alaska -- they're the same people who had no problem with Hillary Clinton including her eight years as first lady as part of her "presidential experience." Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, folks!
Anne E. Kornblut: And another view...
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Menomonie, Wis.: Me, again. Fairfax has a great idea! And the loser can pay off the winner's mortgage!
Anne E. Kornblut: Yes. Count me in.
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Northern Virginia: Is Barack Obama as terrible at debates as the current conventional wisdom suggests? If so, how did he win the nomination?
Anne E. Kornblut: I don't know exactly where the conventional wisdom stands, but certainly Obama advisers felt that against Sen. Clinton in all of the debates during the primary (how many were there? 23?), he did not do as well as he could have. While debates are important, and Obama clearly held his own, they were not the only factor in helping him get the nomination.
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Olney, Md.: These are sort of related: Why does the press not care about who hacked into Gov. Palin's e-mail account? It is, I assume, a crime. To me, it is similar to the press's lack of interest in who actually said "iron my shirts" to Hillary Clinton, and who actually wrote the apparently forged memo about President Bush. Not one reporter ever has figured out each of these three puzzles. Why do I get the feeling that because each one of those things may have been done by what might be called Democratic operatives, the press appears to not care?
Anne E. Kornblut: Okay, this is funny. If we don't care, then why are we covering it? By my count, we've had stories on both these issues in the paper pretty much every week. This reminds me of when people complain that an issue hasn't been in the newspaper -- but then you ask where they heard about it, and they say they read it in the newspaper.
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Cameron, N.C.: Re: An ability to draw crowds as a political strength. Are we back to the celebrity questions again? How many people would go to listen to Palin (Sarah not Michael) at a football stadium?
Anne E. Kornblut: It's a good question, and a legitimate one. What are the lines between celebrity and political skill? Is Gov. Palin skilled simply because she was picked? All are worth exploring, and are what makes this election such an interesting one.
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Ombudsman: Anne, maybe you could shed some light on what the ombudsman said about your piece on Palin's address to the Alaska Air National Guard. You could have pushed harder for dropping a quote? What does that mean?
washingtonpost.com: Two Stories That Pushed Some Buttons (Post, Sept. 21)
Anne E. Kornblut: Not sure what the confusion is here, but I'll go ahead and post this, and you can write back with what you did not understand?
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Fairfax County, Va.: Question(s) about the bailout. Sorry if it rambles, but obviously there's plenty to confuse. So we give Treasury a blank check to bail out the investment industry, which unless I'm really dense means we've just added to the deficit, so we're not paying for it because our children and grandchildren et al are. Too bad we can't reclaim the millions of dollars in bonuses these idiots received over the past several of years. So why is it such a big deal that the Democrats want to limit the compensation of the managers working the bailout? I have to assume they're not saying they want to pay only $50,000 a year. Anyone who gets to stay should be happy they still have a job. Let Congress decide down the road if someone deserves a bonus or not.
Anne E. Kornblut: A fair point. I'm just going to go ahead and post this idea.
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Hartford, Conn.: I've been a business writer and editor for more than 10 years and I'm still having difficulty getting my mind around some details of the financial news. Are the campaigns concerned that they really can't make a case for themselves in 10-second sound bites, or will they be content to be demagogues for the next six weeks?
Anne E. Kornblut: I've been wondering the same thing -- it's one reason you saw Obama put up a two-minute ad (a lifetime in political television) just talking straight to the camera about his plan.
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Halifax, Nova Scotia: Hi. With all the political excitement south of the border, you may not know that your neighbors in Canada also are in the midst of a national election. This is one of the rare instances where the U.S. election is more interesting than our own, so it may interest you to know that Canadian politicians are having a difficult time getting voter attention. The good news is that our election, from the writ dropped to voting, is over in 38 days. My question to you is, should we Canadians be offended that Sarah Palin built up her foreign relations credentials by pointing out the view from Alaska to Russia, rather than telling Charles Gibson that Alaska shares a wicked-long border with Canada?
Anne E. Kornblut: I had not even thought of that. On the other hand, Gov. Palin counts Canada as one of the four foreign countries she has visited, so you can take heart in that.
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Prescott, Ariz.: This bailout plan is a joke. If these firms are in such a mess, why are most of them still paying dividends? If they need the cash so bad, why don't they cut back on their own extravagances first? And why doesn't anyone mention that Paulson has a very "Bushian" track record? A year ago he was saying that the subprime mess largely would be contained. Heck, just a month ago he was telling anyone who would listen about how strong our banking system was. No blank checks.
Anne E. Kornblut: I'm going to go ahead and post this and a few other bailout-related thoughts because I won't have time to answer all of them, but they're provocative. Here is one.
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Olney, Md.: Not to grouse too much, but when Sen. Obama spoke at the Nissan Pavilion after winning the primaries, much was made of the fact that is was a huge place and a big rally, but it was only half-full -- about 10,000 people. When he has had low crowds, that was smoothed over; when Gov. Palin has nearly 60,000 people in a less-populous part of the country, that is minimized and barely reported on by the press.
Anne E. Kornblut: Again, let me ask: Where did you hear about the 60,000 crowd? From the press? I rest my case.
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Norfolk, Va.: So, Palin gets to meet with world leaders this week at the U.N. Do you think those meetings will be scripted and/or that the world leaders will show deference?
Anne E. Kornblut: I think world leaders tend to show deference in person, don't they? It's reporters who are rude, in case you've forgotten. As for the substance of the meetings, we will all be very curious to get readouts of them afterward, to hear what was discussed.
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Baltimore: The law limits the president's salary to $400,000 per year. That looks like a fair upper limit on salaries at any company that's asking for a federal bailout. Is what they do really that much more valuable than what the president of the United States does?
Anne E. Kornblut: And a lot of money to anyone. That's a good point.
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New York: I've had a chance to read the Bush administration's proposed legislation, and I don't like it one bit. If I understand correctly, basically Congress would be giving the Treasury Secretary the unfettered, unreviewable authority to spend $700 billion (and no doubt much more) in taxpayer money as he sees fit. Is that correct, or is the smoke coming out of my ears obscuring my view?
Anne E. Kornblut: And another view...
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Hacker?: Can the person who figured out how to get access to Palin's email even be called a "hacker"? Seems to me that no specialized knowledge of computers was necessary. Heck, even John McCain could take a stab at the questions needed to reset the password, and maybe he'd even find success.
Anne E. Kornblut: I know, this has me wondering whether I need to come up with more creative passwords of my own.
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"We're looking for leadership!": Can I step on some toes this morning and ask, is there anyone more clueless than someone who says "we need leadership!" We've had leadership -- bad leadership. It took plenty of leadership to deregulate the banking industry. It didn't make it a good idea. It took plenty of leadership to take us to war with Iraq. It didn't make it a good idea. We don't lack for leadership in this election; both of our choices have a clear visions and a clear direction. What we lack, frankly, is voters who take that decision seriously.
Anne E. Kornblut: And another...
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Sugar: Just an FYI on the sugar thing -- the governor of Florida just bought out the biggest sugar refiner in the Everglades, so they're kind of out of the picture now, or will be soon. Not that the business ever was sustainable without a massive subsidy anyway, but it's more or less shutting down.
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you. That's right -- I'd forgotten about that, from a few months ago.
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Re: Obama and Debates: Early on I was for Biden. When it came down to Sens. Clinton and Obama, it was a toss-up for me. His debate performance one-on-one with Sen. Clinton was what swung me in his favor. It seems there were a lot of folks like me, regardless of the perception that she is a better debater.
Anne E. Kornblut: That may be the case, and thanks for making the point.
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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Where is Al Gore during this campaign, and why isn't he stumping for Obama?
Anne E. Kornblut: I think he is doing his own thing -- his environmental work -- but I'm sure you'll see him before Election Day. The last time I saw him was during the Democratic convention.
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Florissant Valley, Mo.: Given the current inability of even economic experts to get their hands around the government bailout, is there any chance that either McCain of Obama will be able to make an intelligent evaluation, or even take a stand for or against the plan? Seems to me that both would be well-advised to "support the administration" and keep their ammo dry.
Anne E. Kornblut: And another...
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Boston: Re: "Candidates proposing a forward-looking and visionary plan." The problem with this is that no matter how wonderful the idea was, the other party would have to oppose, making it a partisan and never-ending fight. (I can't imagine either party saying: "You know, that's a great idea and will totally save the economy. My candidate doesn't know what he's talking about." Electoral suicide!) We need something to pass quickly, so it will be worked out behind closed doors and announced as bipartisan.
Anne E. Kornblut: And another great one...
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Bluffton, S.C.: I'll be voting for John McCain in November in the hopes we can stop the march toward socialism, but it may just be a Pyrrhic victory. If he wins, his supporters will be called racists, there will be four years of McCain-bashing editorials and op-ed pieces, not to mention negative reporting in the mainstream media, a Democratic Congress will make his life miserable, the entertainment industry will thrive on mocking him and Sarah Palin, and Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews will be screaming even louder. Alas, Alack!
Anne E. Kornblut: LOL, talk about seeing defeat in victory! I think one thing is clear -- there are going to be upset people no matter who wins.
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Princeton, N.J.: But surely there are issues which are taboo in the U.S. press. I had to go to the foreign pres to get an account of the breakup of McCain's first marriage. If his POW story is indicative of his character, why isn't this episode also indicative? The most poignant fact I heard was when Carol was told she never would walk again. She said she had to be able to walk to greet John when he came home. She went through years of pain therapy, but she did it. The outcome is history.
Anne E. Kornblut: Your point is taken.
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Anne E. Kornblut: Noontime -- thanks so much for joining today. See you again soon! Enjoy the debates, and your week.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 22, 2008 Monday 9:32 AM EST
The Left's Favorite Righty
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: BUSINESS
LENGTH: 2772 words
HIGHLIGHT: David Brooks is used to hanging around with liberals -- his wife and three children, among others, support Barack Obama -- but has grown angry at the condescending talk about Sarah Palin.
David Brooks is used to hanging around with liberals -- his wife and three children, among others, support Barack Obama -- but has grown angry at the condescending talk about Sarah Palin.
"Three times someone told me they thought she was trailer trash," the New York Times columnist said.
When it came time to judge the Alaska governor's fitness for high office, however, Brooks watched her ABC interviews and turned thumbs down. "She looked fine," he said, "but not like someone I'd be comfortable with as president in time of war."
An erudite author and talking head, Brooks, 47, is sometimes cast as the left's favorite conservative. At times he seems to delight in taking on his own side, drawing fire from the likes of Rush Limbaugh, and yet he drives some liberals up the wall.
"I look at a lot of commentary, and so much of it is campaign advocacy for one side or another," he said. "That turns me off in a visceral way." Brooks pronounces himself "disappointed" in both Obama and John McCain.
The Palin nomination has been a moment of truth for the right. Although many conservatives have embraced her as a fresh-faced reformer, a handful -- David Frum, George Will and Charles Krauthammer among them -- have questioned her meager experience. In the heat of a close election, their defection is as unusual as the small number of liberal columnists who have criticized Obama.
Brooks wrote last week that Palin "has not been engaged in national issues, does not have a repertoire of historic patterns and, like President Bush, she seems to compensate for her lack of experience with brashness and excessive decisiveness."
Radio host Laura Ingraham distributed an e-mail chiding Brooks for elitism. "Sarah Palin might not have read all the books David Brooks has read, but she has an ability to galvanize an electorate," she says now.
Although Ingraham likes Brooks, she describes him as "a conservative intellectual of the East Coast variety who thinks everyone else should be more intellectual. I'm sure there are a lot of people who don't know David who think he's a snob. He spends a lot of time around a lot of people with similar backgrounds."
Brooks often displays his witty side on television, where he has a regular debating slot on PBS's "NewsHour" and appears on such programs as "Meet the Press" and "Face the Nation."
"There's a happy tweediness about him," said Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne, a regular sparring partner on National Public Radio. "He's half-intellectual, half-'Saturday Night Live.' He veers back and forth between academic studies and great lines from stand-up."
National Review's Frum, a longtime friend, praises "the suppleness of his mind and a really warm personality." As for criticism from the right, Frum said, "David always seems so affable and fun-loving that you assume he's unbothered."
Perhaps Brooks's greatest apostasy was briefly falling for Obama, based on "interviews I had with him before he became the Messiah. I found him tremendously intelligent. I came away thinking, 'Man, he agrees with everything I think.' We talked about Burke and Niebuhr and all the philosophers I really like and he really likes." Republican senators, Brooks said, "viciously pounded me" for the defection.
Brooks hailed Obama for winning the Iowa caucuses, writing in January that he had achieved "something remarkable" and that "Americans are not going to want to see this stopped. When an African-American man is leading a juggernaut to the White House, do you want to be the one to stand up and say No?"
In urging a broader, more moderate GOP, Brooks ran afoul of Limbaugh, who opposed McCain's nomination and called the columnist part of an "establishment" interested only in Beltway influence. "Mr. Brooks, we're trying to save this party," Limbaugh told his listeners.
Within months, Brooks grew disillusioned, calling Obama a combination of "Dr. Barack, the high-minded, Niebuhr-quoting speechifier who spent this past winter thrilling the Scarlett Johansson set" and "Fast Eddie Obama, the promise-breaking, tough-minded Chicago pol who'd throw you under the truck for votes." But he was hardly a Republican cheerleader: Days before Obama picked his running mate, Brooks urged the choice of Joe Biden as an experienced if loudmouthed lawmaker.
Brooks swooned over McCain during the 2000 campaign ("Even by the standards of the media, I was more worshipful than most"), has dined with him a number of times and admires McCain's closest confidant, Mark Salter. When Brooks criticizes the McCain campaign, the pushback comes "very respectfully," he says, mostly in the form of private e-mails.
The son of two liberal college professors, Brooks grew up in Greenwich Village in the 1960s and was a self-described socialist when he arrived at the University of Chicago. He penned a parody of William F. Buckley that impressed the National Review founder sufficiently to offer him a job. Brooks called and accepted the offer years later, in 1984, by which time he had become a fan of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
Brooks was tapped as the Wall Street Journal's op-ed editor after five years in Brussels for the paper, and he joined the Weekly Standard when Rupert Murdoch launched the magazine in 1995. He also made his mark as a cultural observer with the book "Bobos in Paradise: The New Upper Class and How They Got There."
Brooks backed the invasion of Iraq, praising President Bush for remaining "resolute." He says now that "I was too enthusiastic. I betrayed or neglected the core conservative principle that social change is really complicated. Iraqi society was more complex than I anticipated, and the attempt to radically reshape the country was doomed to fall victim to our own ignorance."
But some liberals still view him as a neocon apologist. "No matter what polls or elections show," Salon's Glenn Greenwald wrote last year, "Brooks' overriding goal is to 'prove' that 'most Americans' favor a 'hawkish' foreign policy whereby America will rule the world by military force."
When Times Publisher Arthur Sulzberger Jr. offered him an op-ed spot soon after the 2003 invasion, Brooks wanted to turn it down, figuring it would be hard to compress his ideas to column length. But, he said, "I had a failure of courage." He enjoyed the increased access and visibility of being a Timesman, but there was a downside.
"Until I took this job, I was never hated on a mass scale," Brooks said.
Within months, he served notice that he was not a cultural right-winger. He wrote a column making the conservative case for gay marriage. Despite such nods to the other side, his fiercest critics are on the left.
"Sometimes liberals get really mad at David because they expect him to know better," Dionne said.
Brooks, who is working on a book about social mobility that includes brain research, admits he is something of a throwback. "This is going to sound pretentious, but I try to be a 1950s public intellectual in 2008, in 800 words."
But he is no ivory-tower thinker. Brooks went to the conventions in Denver and St. Paul, Minn., pumps his sources for off-the-record information and has joined conservative pundits in conversations with Bush. Is he too deeply embedded in the establishment? "We have to get close in order to learn things, but not get sucked in," he said. "Sometimes we fall into the trap of sucking up and censoring ourselves."
Whatever his journalistic gifts, not every audience can be persuaded. After Brooks gave a lukewarm review of Obama's convention speech on PBS, his wife, Sarah, texted him from their Bethesda home: "You are crazy. That was great." What was worse, she reported that their 9-year-old son, Aaron, had said: "For the first time, I really disagree with Daddy."
That, Brooks said, "was like a knife stuck in my heart."
The financial bailout of Wall Street continues to dominate the news -- it does seem that King Henry, to quote Newsweek's cover, is running the government -- and who really knows whether it will cost $700 billion or far more?
Washington Monthly's Steve Benen sees a transformed John McCain:
"I can't help but find it genuinely hilarious to hear McCain rail against the 'Washington culture of lobbying and influence peddling,' blame this culture for the Wall Street crisis, and insist that Obama is 'square in the middle of it.'
"He couldn't be serious. McCain has 177 lobbyists working for him, either as aides, policy advisers, or fundraisers. Of the 177, 83 are Wall Street lobbyists, representing the very financial industry McCain is now railing against. McCain is now condemning influence peddling, while he had a high-priced corporate lobbyist overseeing his campaign strategy and simultaneously doing lobbying work from aboard McCain's campaign bus during the GOP primaries.
"Who's in the middle of the 'Washington culture of lobbying and influence peddling'?
"For that matter, it's downright hysterical to hear McCain say that Obama's judgment has contributed to the crisis. This would be the same McCain who's teamed up with Phil Gramm -- who McCain has suggested would make a fine Treasury Secretary -- and who really does deserve blame for the current mess."
But Michelle Malkin laments "The Death of Fiscal Conservatism":
"Bush Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson . . . said a 'bold' approach was needed to achieve 'stability' in the market.
"Let me translate that. 'Bold' = Massively massive, taxpayer-funded rescue. 'Stability' = Privatizing profits and socializing losses on a scale we have never seen before in our lifetimes.
"I have had it with Pollyanna conservatives who continue to parrot the 'fundamentals of the market are great!' line.
"The fundamentals of the market suck. The fundamentals of capitalism have been sabotaged.
"Yes, yes, crony Democrats are to blame for much of how we got here. You don't need to recite all the talking points back to me. I've been writing about the Fannie/Freddie debacle for years.
"But it is September 19, 2008. And this is a Republican White House presiding over the Mother of All Bailouts."
The editorialists at the Wall Street Journal are gravely disappointed in McCain:
"John McCain has made it clear this week he doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does. But on Thursday, he took his populist riffing up a notch and found his scapegoat for financial panic -- Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission . . .
"Wow. 'Betrayed the public's trust.' Was Mr. Cox dishonest? No. He merely changed some minor rules, and didn't change others, on short-selling. String him up! Mr. McCain clearly wants to distance himself from the Bush Administration. But this assault on Mr. Cox is both false and deeply unfair. It's also un-Presidential . . .
"In a crisis, voters want steady, calm leadership, not easy, misleading answers that will do nothing to help. Mr. McCain is sounding like a candidate searching for a political foil rather than a genuine solution. He'll never beat Mr. Obama by running as an angry populist like Al Gore, circa 2000."
On ABC, George Will accused McCain of "un-presidential behavior by a presidential candidate," while Sam Donaldson declared that "the question of age is back on the table." Really?
In the New Republic, Jonathan Chait is still pondering Palin, whom he dubs "Dan Quaylin":
"Ever since John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, I've gotten confused about all the reasons I'm supposed to dislike Barack Obama. The previous reasons, in rough chronological order, were his lack of experience, his empty rhetoric, his flip-flopping, and his 'celebrity.' But Palin has made each one of those critiques moot. The 'celebrity' attack on Obama has a particularly Dada quality right now as starstruck Republicans bask in the charisma of their adorable veep. (Coldest state, hottest governor, read signs at her rallies.) With her hunky husband, touching family life and plucky personal story, she is the candidate of the People. And by People, I mean People magazine . . .
"The main complaint against Palin has been her lack of experience. That's fortunate for her, since 'experience' -- especially measured in a linear way -- fails to capture exactly what Palin lacks. Yes, two years as governor is less than you'd like, as is four years as senator. The real problem, though, is that Palin has no record of thinking about national or international policy . . .
"In lieu of opening Palin to regular questioning from the press corps, of the sort the other three candidates have all undergone many times before, the McCain campaign is helpfully leaking positive appraisals of her studiousness. 'Despite the worries, [Palin] struck many campaign officials as more calm and cerebral than expected,' reported Newsweek. 'She was quick to ask questions, and to 'engage in a back and forth' with briefers.' See, the McCain campaign says she's on the ball. That settles it, right?
"But, somewhere in the recesses of my mind, this admiring appraisal of the prospective veep's intellect struck a familiar chord. With a quick search, I discovered that, indeed, the same was said of Dan Quayle in 1988. Twenty years ago, The Washington Post reported, 'Bush aides, who were getting their first in-depth exposure to Quayle, were impressed by his attention span, the quality of his questions and the facility with which he moved through the agenda.' "
Kos is proud of his fellow liberal bloggers:
"Bloggers and tradmed reporters took a hard look at Sarah Palin and began raking her over the coals for myriad transgressions. She is a liar with theocratic tendencies, sports an intellect that makes Bush look like a Mensa member, and features an obvious fondness for Cheney-style abuses of power. And that's not even the worst of it.
"But then the worriers began to question, 'Why are we focusing on Palin? McCain is getting a pass! We're tilting at windmills, since she's too popular to damage!' We were told to stop talking altogether about Palin, as if ignoring her would remove the spell she had cast on America. This Andrew Sullivan post must've been emailed to me two dozen times by panicked worrywarts. A few bad polls, and people seemed to be losing their minds and sense.
"But we continued to focus on Palin. Republicans were busy trying to build a positive narrative about Palin -- the 'hockey mom' who was so folksy she could 'field dress a moose' and had 'said no to the Bridge to Nowhere and other government waste' and was overflowing with 'small town values'. McCain had shot up in the polls because of Palin. Common sense dictated it would be hard to knock him back down as long as she consolidated her popularity. So we set out to build the negative narratives about Palin. This is stuff straight out of Taking on the System. I have a whole chapter on it, in fact.
"So we focused heavily on Palin, and make no mistake, it's exactly that intense focus that has taken its toll on her numbers." Her approval/disapproval has dropped from 52-35 positive to 42-46 negative.
"That's a shocking 18 21-point collapse in a single week. She went from being just about the most popular person on the top of the ticket, to the (lipstick wearing?) goat."
The MSM also had a role in examining Palin's record. But the NYT ombudsman says its Palin profile was too much about management style and not enough on management results, and the WP ombudsman says its report on a Palin speech on Iraq was flawed.
Now this is just silly. Ed Morrissey has a great blog at Hot Air, but he's really reaching in suggesting that I sided with the McCain campaign against The Post with this adwatch on a commercial in which ex-Fannie Mae chief Franklin Raines was called an Obama adviser:
"His own newspaper has twice reported the relationship between Raines and Obama, and on one of those occasions, Raines was their source . . .
"Howard never mentions these articles. What are we to make of this omission, and of Howard's declaration of the relationship as a 'disputed premise'? It seems that the lesson is that readers shouldn't trust the reporting at The Washington Post. After all, these articles contain no corrections and have not been retracted, and more to the point, never raised an objection from Barack Obama until now."
First, I cited the McCain argument; that's called reporting. Then I noted that Raines himself (in only one Post article, so there was no need to mention others) told reporter Anita Huslin that he had gotten calls from the Obama camp soliciting his views. Now Raines may have been puffing himself up, but even by his own account, he was hardly an Obama "adviser." So the ad was a huge stretch, and so is Morrissey's claim here.
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The New York Times
September 21, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Truthiness Stages a Comeback
BYLINE: By FRANK RICH
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 9
LENGTH: 1626 words
NOT until 2004 could the 9/11 commission at last reveal the title of the intelligence briefing President Bush ignored on Aug. 6, 2001, in Crawford: ''Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.'' No wonder John McCain called for a new ''9/11 commission'' to ''get to the bottom'' of 9/14, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers set off another kind of blood bath in Lower Manhattan. Put a slo-mo Beltway panel in charge, and Election Day will be ancient history before we get to the bottom of just how little he and the president did to defend America against a devastating new threat on their watch.
For better or worse, the candidacy of Barack Obama, a senator-come-lately, must be evaluated on his judgment, ideas and potential to lead. McCain, by contrast, has been chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, where he claims to have overseen ''every part of our economy.'' He didn't, thank heavens, but he does have a long and relevant economic record that begins with the Keating Five scandal of 1989 and extends to this campaign, where his fiscal policies bear the fingerprints of Phil Gramm and Carly Fiorina. It's not the resume that a presidential candidate wants to advertise as America faces its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. That's why the main thrust of the McCain campaign has been to cover up his history of economic malpractice.
McCain has largely pulled it off so far, under the guidance of Steve Schmidt, a Karl Rove protege. A Rovian political strategy by definition means all slime, all the time. But the more crucial Rove game plan is to envelop the entire presidential race in a thick fog of truthiness. All campaigns, Obama's included, engage in false attacks. But McCain, Sarah Palin and their surrogates keep repeating the same lies over and over not just to smear their opponents and not just to mask their own record. Their larger aim is to construct a bogus alternative reality so relentless it can overwhelm any haphazard journalistic stabs at puncturing it.
When a McCain spokesman told Politico a week ago that ''we're not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say'' about the campaign's incessant fictions, he was channeling a famous Bush dictum of 2003: ''Somehow you just got to go over the heads of the filter.'' In Bush's case, the lies lobbed over the heads of the press were to sell the war in Iraq. That propaganda blitz, devised by a secret White House Iraq Group that included Rove, was a triumph. In mere months, Americans came to believe that Saddam Hussein had aided the 9/11 attacks and even that Iraqis were among the hijackers. A largely cowed press failed to set the record straight.
Just as the Bushies once flogged uranium from Africa, so Palin ceaselessly repeats her discredited claim that she said ''no thanks'' to the Bridge to Nowhere. Nothing is too small or sacred for the McCain campaign to lie about. It was even caught (by The Christian Science Monitor) peddling an imaginary encounter between Cindy McCain and Mother Teresa when McCain was adopting her daughter in Bangladesh.
If you doubt that the big lies are sticking, look at the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. Half of voters now believe in the daily McCain refrain that Obama will raise their taxes. In fact, Obama proposes raising taxes only on the 1.9 percent of households that make more than $250,000 a year and cutting them for nearly everyone else.
You know the press is impotent at unmasking this truthiness when the hardest-hitting interrogation McCain has yet faced on television came on ''The View.'' Barbara Walters and Joy Behar called him on several falsehoods, including his endlessly repeated fantasy that Palin opposed earmarks for Alaska. Behar used the word ''lies'' to his face. The McCains are so used to deference from ''the filter'' that Cindy McCain later complained that ''The View'' picked ''our bones clean.'' In our news culture, Behar, a stand-up comic by profession, looms as the new Edward R. Murrow.
Network news, with its dwindling handful of investigative reporters, has barely mentioned, let alone advanced, major new print revelations about Cindy McCain's drug-addiction history (in The Washington Post) and the rampant cronyism and secrecy in Palin's governance of Alaska (in last Sunday's New York Times). At least the networks repeatedly fact-check the low-hanging fruit among the countless Palin lies, but John McCain's past usually remains off limits.
That's strange since the indisputable historical antecedent for our current crisis is the Lincoln Savings and Loan scandal of the go-go 1980s. When Charles Keating's bank went belly up because of risky, unregulated investments, it wiped out its depositors' savings and cost taxpayers more than $3 billion. More than 1,000 other S.&L. institutions capsized nationwide.
It was ugly for the McCains. He had received more than $100,000 in Keating campaign contributions, and both McCains had repeatedly hopped on Keating's corporate jet. Cindy McCain and her beer-magnate father had invested nearly $360,000 in a Keating shopping center a year before her husband joined four senators in inappropriate meetings with regulators charged with S.&L. oversight.
After Congressional hearings, McCain was reprimanded for ''poor judgment.'' He had committed no crime and had not intervened to protect Keating from ruin. Yet he, like many deregulators in his party, was guilty of bankrupt policy-making before disaster struck. He was among the sponsors of a House resolution calling for the delay of regulations intended to deter risky investments just like those that brought down Lincoln and its ilk.
Ever since, McCain has publicly thrashed himself for his mistakes back then -- and boasted of the lessons he learned. He embraced campaign finance reform to rebrand himself as a ''maverick.'' But whatever lessons he learned are now forgotten.
For all his fiery calls last week for a Wall Street crackdown, McCain opposed the very regulations that might have helped avert the current catastrophe. In 1999, he supported a law co-authored by Gramm (and ultimately signed by Bill Clinton) that revoked theNew Deal reforms intended to prevent commercial banks, insurance companies and investment banks from mingling their businesses. Equally laughable is the McCain-Palin ticket's born-again outrage over the greed of Wall Street C.E.O.'s. When McCain's chief financial surrogate, Fiorina, was fired as Hewlett-Packard's chief executive after a 50 percent drop in shareholders' value and 20,000 pink slips, she took home a package worth $42 million.
The McCain campaign canceled Fiorina's television appearances last week after she inadvertently admitted that Palin was unqualified to run a corporation. But that doesn't mean Fiorina is gone. Gramm, too, was ostentatiouslyexiled after he blamed the economic meltdown on our ''nation of whiners'' and ''mental recession,'' but he remains in the McCain loop.
The corporate jets, lobbyists and sleazes that gravitated around McCain in the Keating era have also reappeared in new incarnations. The Nation's Web site recently unearthed a photo of the resolutely anticelebrity McCain being greeted by the con man Raffaello Follieri and his then girlfriend, the Hollywood actress Anne Hathaway, as McCain celebrated his 70th birthday on Follieri's rented yacht in Montenegro in August 2006. It's the perfect bookend to the old pictures of McCain in a funny hat partying with Keating in the Bahamas.
Whatever blanks are yet to be filled in on Obama, we at least know his economic plans and the known quantities who are shaping them (LawrenceSummers, Robert Rubin, Paul Volcker). McCain has reversed himself on every single economic issue this year, often within a 24-hour period, whether he's judging the strength of the economy's fundamentals or the wisdom of the government bailout of A.I.G. He once promised that he'd run every decision past Alan Greenspan -- and even have him write a new tax code -- but Greenspan has jumped ship rather than support McCain's biggest flip-flop, his expansion of the Bush tax cuts. McCain's official chief economic adviser is now Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who last week declared that McCain had ''helped create'' the BlackBerry.
But Holtz-Eakin's most telling statement was about McCain's economic plans -- namely, that the details are irrelevant. ''I don't think it's imperative at this moment to write down what the plan should be,'' he said. ''The real issue here is a leadership issue.'' This, too, is a Rove-Bush replay. We want a tough guy who will ''fix'' things with his own two hands -- let's take out the S.E.C. chairman! -- instead of wimpy Frenchified Democrats who just ''talk.'' The fine print of policy is superfluous if there's a quick-draw decider in the White House.
The twin-pronged strategy of truculence and propaganda that sold Bush and his war could yet work for McCain. Even now his campaign has kept the ''filter'' from learning the very basics about his fitness to serve as president -- his finances and his health. The McCain multihousehold's multimillion-dollar mother lode is buried in Cindy McCain's still-unreleased complete tax returns. John McCain's full medical records, our sole index to the odds of an imminent Palin presidency, also remain locked away. The McCain campaign instead invited 20 chosen reporters to speed-read through 1,173 pages of medical history for a mere three hours on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. No photocopying was permitted.
This is the same tactic of selective document release that the Bush White House used to bamboozle Congress and the press about Saddam's nonexistent W.M.D. As truthiness repeats itself, so may history, and not as farce.
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The New York Times
September 21, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
The Push To 'Otherize' Obama
BYLINE: By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 9
LENGTH: 769 words
Here's a sad monument to the sleaziness of this presidential campaign: Almost one-third of voters ''know'' that Barack Obama is a Muslim or believe that he could be.
In short, the political campaign to transform Mr. Obama into a Muslim is succeeding. The real loser as that happens isn't just Mr. Obama, but our entire political process.
A Pew Research Center survey released a few days ago found that only half of Americans correctly know that Mr. Obama is a Christian. Meanwhile, 13 percent of registered voters say that he is a Muslim, compared with 12 percent in June and 10 percent in March.
More ominously, a rising share -- now 16 percent -- say they aren't sure about his religion because they've heard ''different things'' about it.
When I've traveled around the country, particularly to my childhood home in rural Oregon, I've been struck by the number of people who ask something like: That Obama -- is he really a Christian? Isn't he a Muslim or something? Didn't he take his oath of office on the Koran?
In conservative Christian circles and on Christian radio stations, there are even widespread theories that Mr. Obama just may be the Antichrist. Seriously.
John Green, of the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, says that about 10 percent of Americans believe we may be in the Book of Revelation's ''end times'' and are on the lookout for the Antichrist. A constant barrage of e-mail and broadcasts suggest that Mr. Obama just may be it.
The online Red State Shop sells T-shirts, mugs and stickers exploiting the idea. Some shirts and stickers portray a large ''O'' with horns, above a caption: ''The Anti-Christ.''
To his credit, Mr. McCain himself has never raised doubts about Mr. Obama's religion. But a McCain commercial last month mimicked the words and imagery of the best-selling Christian ''Left Behind'' book series in ways that would have set off alarm bells among evangelicals nervous about the Antichrist.
Mr. McCain himself is not popular with evangelicals. But they will vote for him if they think the other guy may be on Satan's side.
In fact, of course, Mr. Obama took his oath on the Bible, not -- as the rumors have it -- on the Koran. He is far more active in church than John McCain is.
(Just imagine for a moment if it were the black candidate in this election, rather than the white candidate, who was born in Central America, was an indifferent churchgoer, had graduated near the bottom of his university class, had dumped his first wife, had regularly displayed an explosive and profane temper, and had referred to the Pakistani-Iraqi border ...)
What is happening, I think, is this: religious prejudice is becoming a proxy for racial prejudice. In public at least, it's not acceptable to express reservations about a candidate's skin color, so discomfort about race is sublimated into concerns about whether Mr. Obama is sufficiently Christian.
The result is this campaign to ''otherize'' Mr. Obama. Nobody needs to point out that he is black, but there's a persistent effort to exaggerate other differences, to de-Americanize him.
Raising doubts about a candidate based on the religion of his grandfather is toxic and profoundly un-American, cracking the melting pot we emerged from. Someday people will look back at the innuendoes about Mr. Obama with the same disgust with which we regard the smears of Al Smith as a Catholic candidate in 1928.
I'm writing in part out of a sense of personal responsibility. Those who suggest that Mr. Obama is a Muslim -- as if that in itself were wrong -- regularly cite my own columns, especially an interview last year in which I asked him about Islam and his boyhood in Indonesia. In that interview, Mr. Obama praised the Arabic call to prayer as ''one of the prettiest sounds on earth at sunset,'' and he repeated the opening of it.
This should surprise no one: the call to prayer blasts from mosque loudspeakers five times a day, and Mr. Obama would have had to have been deaf not to learn the words as a child. But critics, like Jerome Corsi, whose book denouncing Mr. Obama, ''The Obama Nation,'' is No. 2 on the New York Times best-seller list, quote from that column to argue that Mr. Obama has mysterious ties to Islam. I feel a particular obligation not to let my own writing be twisted so as to inflame bigotry and xenophobia.
Journalists need to do more than call the play-by-play this election cycle. We also need to blow the whistle on such egregious fouls calculated to undermine the political process and magnify the ugliest prejudices that our nation has done so much to overcome.
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The Washington Post
September 21, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
At Ole Miss, a Valedictory to the Old South
BYLINE: W. Ralph Eubanks
SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B03
LENGTH: 1238 words
The first thing you see as you approach the campus of the University of Mississippi, in the town of Oxford, is a 100-year-old statue of a Confederate soldier that stands in front of a grand, columned building know as the Lyceum. This is the university's administration building and the heart of "Ole Miss." It is also the spot where, 46 years ago, a riot broke out when James Meredith became the first black student to enroll in the university.
Now, this coming Friday, Ole Miss will record another historic first, as Sen. Barack Obama comes to campus for an initial debate with Sen. John McCain. As a black man and an Ole Miss grad, I'm overwhelmed by the symbolism of watching the first black man nominated for president by a major political party walk the campus grounds, past the bullet holes you can still see in the Lyceum's walls.
When I was a student at Ole Miss just 12 years after Meredith walked through the Lyceum doors, I often heard the university's integration referred to as simply "the incident." In the early 1970s, the emotional wounds from 1962 were still raw and festering, and the subject was something you discussed only in whispers. But much has changed since then, and a symbol of that change is the Ole Miss civil rights memorial, which stands on the other side of the Lyceum, almost perfectly aligned with the Confederate memorial.
So, in the same way, has a great deal changed in the broader South. To many Americans, this region of the country remains a separate land with its own unique, radically different culture. In the popular view, it's a place still inhabited by various versions of William Faulkner's eccentric Snopes clan, with only the occasional noble Atticus Finch to balance things out. But as someone who has spent nearly 10 years writing about Mississippi and race and cultural identity in the South, I know that the state and its people have changed vastly since I left more than 20 years ago, vowing never to return.
If Faulkner landed in Oxford today, he wouldn't recognize the place or the people he'd encounter. It's a bustling town that no longer feels like a place of unfulfilled hope, as did his fictional version, called Jefferson. Groups of blacks, whites and Hispanics gather together in restaurants on Courthouse Square (which, of course, has its own Confederate memorial).
I recently went back to talk to students at Ole Miss and get a sense of how they view the coming election and how they think their region has changed. I learned that today's generation is willing to look beyond race and political party affiliation in ways that their parents couldn't, to move away from an identity that's shaped closely along racially demarcated lines and to achieve full social integration.
Taylor McGraw is a white freshman who grew up in Oxford. He contemplated going out of state to school but ended up at Ole Miss. He was determined to make a difference in college, and the university seemed to be a place where he could do that. "I know that race does affect the environment at Ole Miss in many ways," he says, "but race and diversity is what makes America unique."
Melissa Cole, a senior from Jackson, takes that one step further. What's happening at Ole Miss, she says, "is just the beginning of change in Mississippi, a new approach to race."
"James Meredith accomplished the racial integration of Ole Miss," agreed Nick Luckett, an African American student from the Delta town of Drew, "but our generation is tackling the next hardest task: social integration."
Ole Miss's efforts to achieve such integration no longer center merely on black and white but also include the population of international and, above all, Latino students. How could it not, given that Mississippi's Latino population has risen 60 percent since 1980, and the overall Latino population of the South has risen 462 percent since 1990?
Social integration also means moving beyond race and looking at issues of class as well. In my days at Ole Miss, race always seemed to be front and center, even when the issue may have been social class instead. But today, says McGraw, "race doesn't explain everything." Mississippi is a poor state, and even though the university was known as the school for the children of the wealthy Delta "planter class," its students have always represented a broad cross-section of the state's socioeconomic makeup. The tradition of the planter class has long since faded away, but economic background remains an issue. And yet, discussions of class in the South can obscure honest talk about race. "It's easier to talk about class, the money you have or don't have, than to talk about race and social segregation," Patrick Woodyard, a white senior from Hot Springs, Ark., told me.
On the other hand, Curtis Wilkie, a journalism professor at Ole Miss, believes that nowadays, "many of the divisions in Mississippi are more partisan than racial." His comment conjured an image from one of my visits to Mississippi last spring: A white man in a muddy pickup passed me somewhat aggressively along U.S. Highway 49. But he had an "Obama for President" sticker in his window, right below the gun rack.
Former Democratic governor Ray Mabus is working actively for Obama in Mississippi, which has probably made it easier for many loyal white Democrats to support a black candidate. Nevertheless, most registered voters are still Republican, and the state is without question conservative, far more likely to fall into McCain's column in November than into Obama's.
If you travel around the state, you'll still encounter some of the racial attitudes of the old South. True social integration has eluded Mississippians aged 50 and older, both black and white, even though they were shaped by the civil rights movement and the fight against segregation. But at the same time, the old racial divisions can no longer be automatically mined for political purposes. The University of Mississippi -- scene of that riot nearly a half-century ago -- is located in a congressional district where a heated special election took place in May. The Republican Party, along with outside groups, tried to defeat Democratic candidate Travis Childers by spending nearly $1 million on television commercials linking him to Obama. Childers won anyway.
In today's South, truth be told, the largest concerns are no longer racial or social but economic, as manufacturing jobs have replaced farming as a means of keeping residents in many Southern states. One of my favorite boyhood vistas, a vast cotton field near the Mississippi town of Canton, is now the site of a Nissan factory. In February 2007, Toyota announced that it would build a plant on a 1,700-acre site near Tupelo, Miss., the birthplace of Elvis Presley. Slowly, farmland is being converted to manufacturing, attracting people from far outside the region and even the country, further transforming the South's cultural and economic landscape.
As the saying goes, it's not your father's South anymore. Today, the region is more sophisticated and open-minded than most people outside it realize. Maybe the public and political strategists will both finally see that when John McCain and Barack Obama arrive on campus, and walk past those bullet-pocked walls.
eubanks@newamerica.net
W. Ralph Eubanks, a fellow at the New America Foundation, is the author of "The House at the End of the Road: A Story of Race, Identity, and Memory," to be published in May 2009.
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The Washington Post
September 21, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Obama Hopes to Reverse Party Fortunes in Vote-Rich Fla.
BYLINE: Dan Balz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A08
LENGTH: 1218 words
DATELINE: MIAMI, Sept. 20
Barack Obama was wrapping up his remarks at a Friday night fundraiser here when he turned to the importance of Florida and its 27 electoral votes in his battle for the White House against Republican John McCain.
Obama expressed confidence overall about his prospects of prevailing in November, but then he reminded his audience that there are many ways to win the White House, some easier than others. "I'll tell you, we can win this thing without Florida," he said, "But, boy, it's a lot easier if we win Florida. If we win Florida, it is almost impossible for John McCain to win."
Obama's campaign is prepared to invest a huge amount of money to try to do what Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) failed to do in the Sunshine State. His campaign sent out an e-mail appeal for contributions in the past week, noting provocatively that his budget for Florida alone is $39 million.
But Florida remains one of the most difficult of the major battlegrounds for the senator from Illinois, just as it has for other Democrats this decade -- a costly dry hole. The question is whether Obama, with vast resources and a plan to redraw the shape of the electoral map, can win here. That strategy remains in doubt six weeks before the election.
"It's been a state where he's been close but just trailing," said Dave Beattie, a Florida-based Democratic strategist.
At this point, polls show the race as close to even. McCain strategists say they believe they have a very narrow lead. Senior adviser Steve Schmidt said in a message Saturday, "We are up and will win it but don't take it for granted."
Another senior adviser to the senator from Arizona said: "In an environment, especially over the last two years, when a lot of states have gone in the wrong direction for our party, Florida hasn't as much. It continues to trend in the right direction for us."
In 2000, Gore pulled out of Ohio and poured resources into Florida, only to see his hopes for the presidency die after the 37-day recount battle that was ended by the Supreme Court. George W. Bush's official margin was 537 votes.
Kerry ultimately put more emphasis on Ohio in 2004, but only when it was clear that his best efforts in Florida were likely to fall short. Growing Republican strength and Bush's popularity in the state resulted in an easy victory for the president, 52 to 47 percent.
In 2002, Democrats tried to make a run at then-Gov. Jeb Bush, who was seeking a second term, only to get swamped by massive Republican turnout. Two years ago, when Democrats were gaining substantial ground nationally, Republican Charlie Crist easily won election to succeed Bush as governor by the same 52 to 47 percent as in the 2004 presidential campaign.
The candidates are paying considerable attention to the state. McCain began his week in Florida, and Obama ended his week here. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is in the state this weekend, and Obama will return to the Tampa area next week to prepare for the first presidential debate, scheduled for Friday in Oxford, Miss.
To date, Obama has made a far larger investment in Florida. He spent at least $6 million and as much as $8 million on television ads over the summer while McCain was not advertising at all. McCain's advisers count themselves lucky that, during those months, Obama was not able to improve his standing in any notable way, at least if the polls are accurate.
"That's the ugly story," said a Florida Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to provide a candid assessment of the state. "He spent more than $8 million in Florida and McCain never went up and he lost ground."
Obama also has put an enormous organization in place. He has 50 offices in the state and more than 100,000 active volunteers, according to campaign spokesman Nick Shapiro. The Obama campaign will not provide the number of paid staffers in the state, but a Democratic strategist familiar with the operation said there are at least 300, perhaps as many as 350.
Obama's team believes that the only way to win Florida in November is by producing an electorate that is far more Democratic than that in past races. They are targeting 600,000 African Americans who are registered to vote but who do not regularly turn out on Election Day.
Obama's team also sees considerable potential in a pool of potential voters -- younger Floridians, Hispanics, African Americans and newly arrived suburban voters -- who are not registered. Democrats have gained more new voters this year in Florida than Republicans, although not by the margins they have seen in some other states.
Judging from two Obama rallies in Florida on Saturday -- the first at Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach and the second in Jacksonville, the African American community in Florida is enormously enthusiastic about the senator's candidacy. But the campaign's job will be to translate that into a significant outpouring of voters Nov. 4.
There are three keys to the state. First, Obama must produce the kind of huge margins in South Florida that have been the key to Democratic success in the past. Second, he must avoid a poorer-than-normal showing for Democrats in conservative northern Florida. Finally, he must win the battle for voters across the Interstate 4 corridor in central Florida.
"If he wins the Tampa market, he probably wins the state," Beattie said.
But a Democratic strategist said he remained worried because Republicans were beginning to come home to McCain. "Obama should be doing better on the I-4 than he currently is in the public polling. He's not doing worse among Bubba than we thought," the strategist said, referring to white, working-class Southerners. "The problem is he should be doing better with change voters on the I-4."
There are other obstacles. Whether he can ultimately win white voters in adequate numbers in northern Florida is still in question. Along Florida's west coast, he will try to woo retirees from states such as Michigan and Ohio, the same kind of voters who rejected him in overwhelming numbers in those states in the primaries against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). In South Florida, he will have to overcome some resistance in the Jewish community.
At a pair of fundraisers in Miami on Friday, Obama made a special plea to his supporters to help turn out their communities in what he called "the wonderful tapestry that is South Florida."
He urged Cuban Americans to go into Little Havana and tell voters there: "I know that you may have voted Republican in the past, but this time we need a change, and Barack Obama is my guy. He believes in liberty for the Cuban people. He wants to try to pursue it in new ways in the 21st century."
He asked Jewish voters to go into their communities, as well. "You've got to say, 'Listen, let me explain to you: This guy has always been a friend of Israel. Don't believe those nasty e-mails [saying the opposite]. He will never sacrifice Israel's security.' "
The battle over the next six weeks will pit Obama's ground game against a McCain campaign that will finally be airing television commercials and tapping into the strength of a state Republican Party and Republican National Committee that have proved so effective in recent Florida votes.
Republicans see themselves holding the state in November, but not without a fight.
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The New York Times
September 20, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
McCain Tries to Link Obama to Financial Crisis
BYLINE: By JULIE BOSMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 13
LENGTH: 603 words
Titled ''Advice,'' this is a 30-second advertisement for Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee. It is running online, but the McCain campaign said it would begin running on television nationally on Monday.
PRODUCER McCain media team
THE SCRIPT A narrator says: ''Obama has no background in economics. Who advises him? The Post says it's Franklin Raines, for 'advice on mortgage and housing policy.' Shocking. Under Raines, Fannie Mae committed 'extensive financial fraud.' Raines made millions. Fannie Mae collapsed. Taxpayers? Stuck with the bill. Barack Obama. Bad advice, bad instincts. Not ready to lead.''
ON THE SCREEN The advertisement begins with a picture of Mr. Obama, with his head cocked and a perplexed expression, as the words ''No economic background'' appear next to him. Next is a similar shot of Mr. Obama, this time next to a quote from The Washington Post reading, ''Advice on Mortgage and Housing Policy.'' The advertisement goes on to show a darkened background with several pictures of Mr. Raines, side-by-side with pictures of Mr. Obama, over the words ''As Much as $25 Million,'' again attributed to The Post. Then an elderly woman appears on screen, next to the words, ''Taxpayers stuck with bill.'' The spot concludes with an image of a smiling Mr. Obama.
ACCURACY This advertisement forced a series of heated attacks between the McCain and Obama campaigns beginning on Thursday, a debate that was left unresolved by the end of Friday. What is clear is that the McCain campaign has left the strong impression that Mr. Raines, a former chief executive of Fannie Mae who was ousted in 2004 amid an investigation over its accounting practices, is a close adviser to Mr. Obama, a suggestion that is totally unsupported by the facts. But the advertisement's basic assertion is not a whole-cloth fabrication. The Post reported on July 16, in a Style-section article on Mr. Raines, that he had ''taken calls from Barack Obama's presidential campaign seeking his advice on mortgage and housing policy matters.'' Others immediately repeated the information, including Politico.com.
Until the advertisement came out on Thursday evening, the Obama campaign did not question the claim. Since then, it has vigorously denied a relationship between Mr. Obama and Mr. Raines, with Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, calling the advertisement ''another flat-out lie from a dishonorable campaign that is increasingly incapable of telling the truth,'' and demanding a correction of the original article from The Post. The campaign also sent by e-mail a statement from Mr. Raines, saying: ''I am not an advisor to Barack Obama, nor have I provided his campaign with advice on housing or economic matters.'' On Friday, Mr. Burton said that Mr. Raines and Mr. Obama met once on the campaign trail, sometime in 2007 or 2008, and had not talked since then. He said Mr. Raines conducted an ''introductory meeting'' with a Senate aide to Mr. Obama, also sometime in the last two years.
SCORECARD The McCain campaign's goal was to link Mr. Obama to Fannie Mae; its disintegration contributed to the worst economic upheaval in decades. It is meant to play into voters' fears, as well as anger, as both Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama jockey to prove their superior ability to lead the nation through the crisis. Most viewers will not know that Mr. Raines has not been a major adviser to Mr. Obama, making it possible that the taint of Fannie Mae will stick. Yet there are so many ominous-sounding political commercials circulating that this one could be lost in the hubbub. JULIE BOSMAN
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September 20, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
McCain's Camp Tests Fund-Raising Limits
BYLINE: By MICHAEL LUO
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1363 words
Senator John McCain toiled for years to push a campaign finance overhaul through Congress. After the measure finally passed, Trevor Potter, a lawyer and vigorous advocate for reforming the system, was instrumental in defending the law from challenges and pressing for strict enforcement.
Now, as Mr. McCain makes his final sprint for the White House, Mr. Potter is again helping Mr. McCain, but this time by maneuvering to wring the maximum out of campaign finance laws in ways that some contend are at odds with the spirit of the reforms they championed.
The tactics appear to be legally permissible. And some argue that the McCain campaign is simply doing what is necessary in the face of the record fund-raising by his Democratic rival for president, Senator Barack Obama, and Mr. Obama's decision to bypass public financing and its attendant spending limits.
But critics point out Mr. McCain is capitalizing on legal loopholes that a watchdog organization headed by Mr. Potter has fought against.
''There are very, very few lawyers in the country that are better at exploiting campaign finance loopholes than Trevor Potter,'' said Bradley A. Smith, a former Republican chairman of the Federal Election Commission. ''Of course, that's one of the odd things about the McCain campaign: 'Here's the rules we want, but we'll play by the rules that are here.' ''
Mr. McCain was an author of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, known as the McCain-Feingold law, an ambitious measure that supporters hoped would help drive big money out of politics. He has also helped sponsor legislation to improve the public financing system for elections and attacked Mr. Obama for backing away from a pledge to participate in it for the general election if his opponent accepted public money as well.
But now, as Mr. McCain's top legal adviser, Mr. Potter, a former F.E.C. chairman, and his team have been helping the campaign finesse the strict spending limits it faces under public financing. Although Mr. McCain is supposed to be out of the business of private fund-raising after he received his $84 million infusion from the Treasury this month, it is sometimes difficult to tell.
This month, the McCain campaign began running banner Web advertisements asking for donations to the McCain-Palin Compliance Fund, a fund-raising vehicle rooted in a 1980s F.E.C. ruling that candidates who accept public financing can still collect private donations for legal and accounting costs for complying with campaign finance laws.
Only a careful observer, however, would have noticed the advertisements' fine print, which said donations to the fund would be used to pay for ''a portion of the cost of broadcast advertising,'' as well as other expenses.
That would seem to be a far cry from the legal and accounting exemption. But the F.E.C. issued an advisory opinion last year that said Senator John Kerry's presidential campaign could use its compliance fund to cover up to 5 percent of its advertising costs, because of the several seconds candidates must devote in their advertisements to a disclaimer.
The Campaign Legal Center, founded by Mr. Potter, joined with Democracy 21, a watchdog group, to file a strongly worded brief opposing the practice, warning that it would be exploited.
The McCain campaign declined to make Mr. Potter available for an interview. Brian Rogers, a spokesman for the campaign, said in a statement that the campaign had not yet paid for advertising with its compliance fund but ''reserves the option to do so under this recent, clear F.E.C. precedent.''
The centerpiece of McCain-Feingold was its efforts to rein in ''soft money,'' or unregulated contributions, in national elections. But McCain fund-raisers continue to build much of their efforts around the solicitation of large contributions of up to about $70,000 for a special joint fund-raising account for the Republican National Committee and several state parties, which can spend money on behalf of the campaign, called McCain-Palin Victory 2008.
Campaigns have used the joint fund-raising committees in the past, but the McCain campaign took the practice to a new level by linking them with state party accounts, which can accept contributions of $10,000, on top of the $28,500 collected for the national party, $2,300 for the compliance fund and, until recently, $2,300 for the campaign's primary coffers.
Critics have contended that the large donations to the joint fund-raising accounts amount to a form of soft money. The Obama campaign has been using its own joint fund-raising committee with the Democratic Party, but it only recently created a separate account for the state parties, so the checks are not nearly as big.
''The real irony here,'' said Craig Holman, a lobbyist for Public Citizen, a watchdog group, ''is we fought so hard to get B.C.R.A. through, McCain-Feingold through, with the whole intent of getting rid of those large donations, which everyone, including McCain, realized were potentially corrupting. And we've gone full circle with these large donations for the joint fund-raising committees.''
McCain fund-raisers certainly seem to pitch donations to the victory committee as supporting the ticket. The McCain campaign Web site attracts donors with a prominent ''Contribute'' button that sends them to a donation page for the committee, along with some lengthy disclaimers of the various entities that benefit from it.
By contrast, the Kerry campaign's contribution button on its Web page in 2004 was more clearly labeled ''Contribute to the Democratic Party.'' The Obama campaign is not soliciting contributions for its joint fund-raising committee on its Web site.
Some lawyers said that some of the ways the McCain campaign is pushing its victory committee fit awkwardly with the broader mandate of public financing to halt private fund-raising, as well as rules that ban the designating of funds to party committees for specific candidates.
''I think it's both an appearance and a legal question,'' said Lawrence H. Norton, who left his post as general counsel to the F.E.C. last year.
But Mr. Rogers pointed to explanatory language used in literature by the joint fund-raising committees and said they undertook ''substantial efforts to avoid any potential misunderstanding.''
Mr. Potter built his reputation as an activist while he was F.E.C. chairman in the 1990s and later founded his reform-minded legal center. He took a leave this year from his position as president to devote himself to being the McCain campaign's general counsel while also still maintaining a private practice.
Guided by Mr. Potter, the McCain campaign is also adopting one of the most controversial innovations introduced by the Bush campaign in 2004: the use of so-called hybrid advertisements, which allowed it to split the cost of television commercials with the Republican Party. The practice was later copied by the Democrats.
The F.E.C. deadlocked on the legality of the advertisements last year, paving the way for the McCain campaign to rely heavily on them. But Mr. Potter's Campaign Legal Center joined Democracy 21 last year in a vigorous objection to the practice, labeling it a ''scheme to evade the spending limits.''
Some election law lawyers speculated that the McCain campaign might push the envelope further and try to split the costs of its hybrid advertisements with state parties as well, or produce some advertisements in which the party picks up more of the cost.
Mr. Rogers said the campaign had no plans to change the 50-50 ratio for dividing the advertising costs but declined to comment on the state parties question.
Mr. Rogers said Mr. McCain's detractors often insinuated that because of his reformist reputation ''almost anything he does to raise or spend money is a violation of his principles.''
But Mr. Rogers said the campaign was complying with all laws.
Indeed, some lawyers argued that Mr. Potter and Mr. McCain were simply dealing with the realities of a close race.
''They're taking full advantage of opportunities the law provides for them,'' said Robert D. Lenhard, a former Democratic F.E.C. chairman.
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September 20, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
As Fingers Point in the Financial Crisis, Many of Them Are Aimed at Bush
BYLINE: By MARK LANDLER and SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 1398 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
For his entire presidency, George W. Bush has tried to avoid the fate of his father, brought low by a feeble economy. Now, as the financial crisis radiates far beyond Wall Street, Mr. Bush faces an even grimmer prospect: being blamed, at least in part, for an economic breakdown.
''There will be ample opportunity to debate the origins of this problem,'' Mr. Bush said in the Rose Garden on Friday. ''Now is the time to solve it.''
But in Washington, on Wall Street and on the presidential campaign trail, the debate has already begun.
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, denounces what he calls the Bush administration's ''failed philosophy.''
Senator John McCain, the Republican, claimed Friday that ''the administration did nothing'' to rein in the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, even though the White House did push some reforms on Capitol Hill.
And while economists and other experts say there are plenty of culprits -- Democrats and Republicans in Congress, the Federal Reserve, an overzealous home-lending industry, banks and also Mr. Bush's predecessor, Bill Clinton -- they do agree that the Bush administration bears part of the blame.
These experts, from both political parties, say Mr. Bush's early personnel choices and overarching antipathy toward regulation created a climate, that, if it did not set off the turmoil, almost certainly aggravated it.
The president's first two Treasury secretaries, for instance, lacked the kind of Wall Street expertise that might have helped them raise red flags about the use of complex financial instruments that are at the heart of the crisis.
To his credit, Mr. Bush accurately foresaw the danger posed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and began calling as early as 2002 for greater regulation. But experts say the administration could have done even more to curb excesses in the housing market, and much more to police Wall Street, which transmitted those problems around the world.
Vincent R. Reinhart, a former Federal Reserve economist now at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute here, said that, in retrospect, ''it would have helped for the Bush administration to empower the folks at Treasury and the Federal Reserve and the comptroller of the currency and the F.D.I.C.'' -- the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation -- ''to look at these issues more closely.''
He said it would also have helped ''for Congress to have held hearings.''
Instead, voices inside the administration for tougher policing of Wall Street found themselves with few supporters. William H. Donaldson, a former Wall Street executive with respected Republican credentials who became chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission under Mr. Bush, quit after facing resistance from the White House and Republican members of the agency, who criticized his support for stiffer regulations on mutual funds and hedge funds.
Today, even some sympathetic to Mr. Bush say he cannot disentangle himself from a home-lending industry that ran amok or a banking industry that mortgaged its future on toxic loans.
''The crisis definitely happened on their watch,'' said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard who advises Mr. McCain. ''This is eight years into the Bush administration. There was a lot of time to deal with it.''
To some extent, Mr. Bush was simply following a deregulatory pattern set by his predecessor, President Clinton. Perhaps the most significant recent deregulation of the banking industry -- the landmark act that allowed commercial banks to expand into other financial activities, like investment banking and insurance -- was signed into law by Mr. Clinton in 1999.
Mr. Bush also inherited a culture of borrowing and a frothy housing market that has become ''deeply embedded in the American psyche,'' Mr. Rogoff said.
And Mr. Reinhart said the markets seemed to be doing so well that few analysts, either in government or the private sector, had a critical eye. ''When everybody is doing better,'' he said, ''it is difficult to see the underlying weaknesses.''
Still, the White House, in the view of critics, fostered a free-market hothouse in which these excesses were able to flower. It avoided regulation of banks and mortgage brokers, leaving much of that work to the Federal Reserve, which, under Alan Greenspan, showed little appetite for regulation.
By the time Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. proposed an overhaul of regulations governing the financial sector in April, the storm was already brewing.
The administration's push to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was stymied by Congress. But the administration's intense focus on fending off what it foresaw as a looming housing crisis did not include an effort to curb the proliferation of fiendishly complex mortgage-backed securities, said Harvey S. Rosen, an economist who served on Mr. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, briefly as chairman.
''Maybe there should have been'' such an effort, Mr. Rosen said. ''But we were focused more on the fact that if these entities just held plain-vanilla mortgage-backed securities, it was still a disaster in the making.''
Beyond the administration's deregulatory bent, some economists argue that its fiscal and tax policies made the United States more dependent on foreign capital, which inflated the bubble in housing prices.
''A different Treasury would have taken a different approach,'' said Lawrence H. Summers, who served as Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. ''I don't think the economy has been well managed, and that has certainly been crucial for the problems we're facing.''
The White House and Congress wanted to make housing affordable to more Americans, and freeing up the lending markets was a way to do that. As Mr. Rogoff said: ''It was a market-based way to help poor people. There was an incredible belief in free markets.''
For all that faith, Mr. Bush's first two Treasury secretaries, Paul H. O'Neill and John W. Snow, came from top jobs in industry, not Wall Street. They were viewed in Washington as advocating the interests of business, and being less comfortable with the mysteries of markets.
Neither was seen as having much influence with the White House, and the Treasury Department lost some of the primacy in economic policy it had enjoyed under Mr. Summers and his predecessor, Robert E. Rubin.
Mr. O'Neill and Mr. Snow declined to be interviewed for this article.
''The primary agency responsible for keeping an eye on these things is, and should be, the Treasury Department, and I think the president erred in the first place by appointing two secretaries who had no background in finance,'' said Bruce R. Bartlett, a Republican economist who worked for President Ronald Reagan and President George H. W. Bush.
The White House did name people well versed in the markets to other posts, not least the chairmanship of the Securities and Exchange Commission. But Mr. Bush's first S.E.C. chairman -- Harvey L. Pitt, a prominent securities lawyer -- was brought down by political missteps. Mr. Pitt was succeeded by Mr. Donaldson, who quit in 2005.
Critics say the S.E.C. has been less active under its current chairman, Christopher Cox, a former Republican congressman from California. It has spent less on enforcement and imposed less in fines on wrongdoers, according to the Government Accountability Office. This week, Mr. McCain called for Mr. Cox's resignation.
In other areas, the Bush administration'sfailures seem more a case of inaction. The administration, economists said, did little to curb the practices of mortgage brokers, who are regulated by the states. But Democrats in Congress were equally to blame for this, these people said.
''The Democrats pushed affordable housing goals, even in the face of evidence that people who got the loans shouldn't have gotten them,'' said Robert E. Litan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
He added: ''I blame the Democrats for demanding that Fannie Mae keep buying these loans. I blame the administration for going along with it.''
White House officials note that the administration did propose reforms of real estate settlement procedures and the Federal Housing Administration, two areas it had identified as posing the greatest systemic risk to markets. Democrats in Congress, they said, blocked these efforts.
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September 20, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
Judging a Man by the Company He Keeps
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The Ad: John McCain admits he doesn't understand the economy. So who advises him? Carly Fiorina, the fired CEO who got a $42 million golden parachute. Phil Gramm, the ex-senator who pushed through deregulation and called Americans hurt by this economy "whiners." Then there's George Bush, whose disastrous policies McCain wants to continue. They think the economy is fundamentally strong. We know they're fundamentally wrong.
Analysis: The key facts in this Barack Obama counterattack ad are accurate.
Fiorina, who has been one of McCain's closest and most visible advisers, was forced to resign as chief executive of Hewlett-Packard over its sinking fortunes, and she received a severance package estimated at $42 million (popularly, if somewhat pejoratively, called a "golden parachute"). Gramm was another close adviser until he told the Washington Times that America had become "a nation of whiners" complaining about a "mental recession," after which he relinquished his formal campaign role. Gramm was a Senate champion of deregulation, and he sponsored a 1999 law, supported by McCain, that loosened barriers between banks and insurance companies. That measure, some analysts say, contributed to the current Wall Street meltdown.
McCain has been a frequent supporter of President Bush, but whether Bush's economic policies have been "disastrous" is, of course, a matter of debate. The ad slightly distorts McCain's comment on Monday that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" -- which, while politically tone-deaf, can be seen as saying that the financial underpinnings are solid despite the current troubles. That is not the same as saying the overall economy is strong.
In a duel over advisers, the Obama ad is stronger in aiming at two McCain confidants than the Arizona senator's spot attempting to tie the Democrat to former Fannie Mae chairman Franklin D. Raines. But voters may be more interested in the words and policies of the candidates themselves than in those of the people who surround them.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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September 19, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Obama Attacks McCain in a Bid to Attract Hispanic Voters
BYLINE: By LARRY ROHTER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 15
LENGTH: 514 words
This Spanish-language television advertisement for Senator Barack Obama is intended for Latino voters in battleground and other states. Called ''Two Faces,'' it is 30 seconds long.
PRODUCER Obama media team
THE SCRIPT Mr. Obama speaks first, in accented Spanish, saying he approves the message. Then an indignant male voice says: ''They want us to forget the insults we've had to endure. Intolerance. They've made us feel marginalized in this country that we love so much. John McCain and his Republican friends have two faces. One tells lies to get our votes. The other, even worse, follows the failed policies of George Bush, putting the interests of powerful groups ahead of working families. John McCain: more of the same Republican deceit.''
THE SCREEN After Mr. Obama's introduction, the screen splits in two. At the top is a Hispanic mother and her young child; at the bottom is a picture of Rush Limbaugh and the phrase ''stupid, unskilled Mexicans.'' The image of a middle-aged Hispanic woman in front of a store follows, with another phrase attributed to Mr. Limbaugh: ''Shut your mouth or get out!'' At the first mention of ''two faces,'' the images of Mr. McCain and President Bush appear. A newspaper headline reads ''they made immigration reform fail,'' attributing the phrase to a McCain campaign advertisement. As an image of an oil rig on the left gives way to a gasoline pump and then the accusation of deceit, Mr. McCain and Mr. Bush are shown together again on the right.
ACCURACY This advertisement is misleading. Mr. McCain's history on the immigration issue, though complicated, is misrepresented here, as is his relationship with the nativist wing of his party and Mr. Limbaugh. With Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Mr. McCain sponsored overhaul legislation in 2006. He later backed away from his own bill for reasons still being debated, and though he now says the borders must be secured first, he has not repudiated his support for the principle. (He has tried in his own advertisements to shift the blame for the bill's failure to Mr. Obama.) On the campaign trail, Mr. McCain has also repeatedly praised the Hispanic contribution to American life. Not one of the anti-Hispanic slights in the advertisement came from Mr. McCain's mouth. And while Mr. McCain has mentioned the failure of the effort to overhaul immigration in one of his own Spanish-language advertisements, he has not celebrated it.
SCORECARD A Spanish-language proverb says it best: ''Tell me who you walk with, and I will tell you who you are.'' This is an exercise in guilt by association, meant to taint Mr. McCain with Latino voters. But in the Republican presidential debates, he took pains to separate himself from the anti-immigrant posture of candidates like Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado, and Mr. Limbaugh has often attacked Mr. McCain. So while Mr. McCain may need to explain why the Republican platform does not reflect his views on immigration, little in his record justifies this attack, which strongly implies that he holds anti-Hispanic views. LARRY ROHTER
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September 19, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Inside The Times: September 19th, 2008
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LENGTH: 2322 words
INTERNATIONAL
CHINESE OFFICIAL FIRED
In Growing Milk Scandal
Chinese authorities arrested a dozen people, fired a senior government official and acknowledged that a wider range of milk products showed traces of a chemical used to disguise poor quality. Officials said a fourth infant had died from tainted baby formula, while health regulators in neighboring Hong Kong announced a broader recall of mainland Chinese-made milk, yogurt and ice cream contaminated with the chemical melamine. PAGE A7
ZIMBABWE TALKS STALLED
Power-sharing talks between President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai deadlocked over Mr. Mugabe's insistence that he retain control of the state's vast security forces, as well as virtually every other crucial ministry, a senior opposition official said. On Monday, Mr. Mugabe agreed to a deal that requires him to give up some of his powers for the first time in 28 years in office. But he has since proved unwilling to let go of any of the levers of state-sponsored authority he has regularly wielded to repress his rivals. PAGE A10
GATES URGES CAUTION ON RUSSIA
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said that he would urge NATO ministers meeting in London to adopt a cautious and deliberate approach toward Russia that reassures newer members along the Russian border without provoking hostilities. In Moscow, the Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said he hoped that Russia and the United States could find a way to improve relations. But Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a speech in Germany, said the West must stand up to the Kremlin's ''bullying.'' PAGE A6
G.I. HELD IN DEATHS OF TWO SOLDIERS
An American soldier was in custody in Iraq in the shooting deaths on Sunday of two fellow soldiers at their patrol base near Iskandariya, the American military said. The military did not name the soldier who was being held. An American military spokesman in Baghdad would not say whether the soldier was being held on suspicion of deliberate killing, negligence or for other reasons. PAGE A8
MORE WOMEN IN POLITICS
Women have entered politics in greater numbers than ever in the last decade, reaching 18 percent of parliament members worldwide, according to a study by the United Nations Development Fund for Women. If the rate of change holds constant, it will take until 2045 for women to reach parity in the developing world, which the study by Unifem, as the development fund is known, defined as holding between 40 percent and 60 percent of elected parliamentary seats. PAGE A10
national
PANEL PROPOSES CHANGES
In Financial Aid for College
A panel of education experts and researchers proposed a broad reconfiguration of federal policies on financial aid for college, including a simpler application process, Pell Grant maximums linked to the consumer price index and federally financed college savings accounts for children in low-income families. PAGE A11
AFTER HURRICANE IKE, STILL NO POWER
Hundreds of thousands of Midwestern residents remained without power after remnants of Hurricane Ike swept through the region on Sunday, bringing torrential downpours and strong winds. Many residents may not have electricity for several more days, utility companies said. PAGE A12
CHICAGO UNVEILS A GREEN PLAN
Mayor Richard M. Daley of Chicago unveiled perhaps the most aggressive plan of any major American city to reduce heat-trapping gases. The blueprint would change the city's building codes, to promote energy efficiency. PAGE A13
TODD PALIN REFUSED TO TESITIFY
Todd Palin, the husband of the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, has refused to testify in a legislative inquiry into whether Ms. Palin or members of her administration abused their power in the dismissal of a top state administrator, a spokesman said. PAGE A14
CELLPHONE BAN FOR TRAIN OPERATORS
A day after federal investigators said that an engineer in last week's deadly train collision outside Los Angeles had been text-messaging on the job, the state of California temporarily banned the use of all cellular devices by anyone at the controls of a moving train. The crash occurred after the train ran a red light and led to the deaths of 25 people, including the engineer, and injuries to 130 others. PAGE A11
CARP CAN HAVE CARBS, FOR NOW
After being berated for two months by visitors, business owners and elected officials, Pennsylvania has temporarily called off a plan to ban people from feeding bread to carp in Pymatuning Lake. An estimated 500,000 people trek to the lake every year to see a veritable carpet of carp in the water and the state wanted to end the 70-year tradition because it was generating litter and attracting geese that were defecating on local beaches and campgrounds. PAGE A13
ATTEMPTS TO HELP FISHERIES
Giving people ownership rights in marine fisheries can halt or even reverse catastrophic declines in commercial stocks, researchers in California and Hawaii are reporting. PAGE A13
Bush Sued Over Wiretapping A13
Actions Sought for Veterans A12
metro
NATURE CONSERVANCY BUYS
14,600 Acres in Adirondacks
A 14,600-acre piece of the Adirondacks long prized by environmentalists for its forests and wetlands, including a pond where Ralph Waldo Emerson led a ''philosophers' camp,'' was bought by the Nature Conservancy for $16 million, the group said. The property will not immediately be open to the public because of leases that will last several more years. But the Nature Conservancy said the land would be protected and ultimately added to the Adirondack Forest Preserve in Adirondack Park. PAGE B5
THE GREEKS KNEW WAR
Bryan Doerries translates the plays of Sophocles for modern audiences, emphasizing those centered on war and its shattering effects on the men who wage it and the families that grapple with its consequences. A recent audience included 11 cadets from the United States Military Academy at West Point. What Sophocles had to say is ''still on point all these years later,'' one said. Clyde Haberman, NYC. PAGE B1
THE GALA MUST GO ON
Share prices, indexes, people's spirits may all be falling, with bleak economic news seemingly at every turn, but the pursuit of money -- for charitable purposes -- still has its place. And so the Champagne flowed on the wraparound patio of Denise Rich's Fifth Avenue penthouse triplex. PAGE B1
SPORTS
LOOKING AHEAD TO STARDOM
At the Tender Age of 5
Willie Parker predicted his own football future at the age of 5, his father, Willie Sr., remembers. Willie the Younger has long since made good on that prediction, reshaping the image of the Pittsburgh Steelers' running game. Since 2006, he is second in the N.F.L. with 3,053 rushing yards. PAGE D1
BORN IN OHIO, RAISED IN THE BRONX
Osborn Engineering Company of Cleveland turned its knowledge of bridge design into an expertise in sports architecture early in the 20th century that made it the creator of an all-star team of facilities including the Polo Grounds, Forbes Field and Fenway and Comiskey Parks. And also a certain structure in the Bronx, now not long for the world. PAGE D2
THE GROUNDWORK FOR A DYNASTY
In 1993, the last time the Yankees failed to make the post-season, the team faded by losing 12 of 17 games in an agonizing stretch and watched the Toronto Blue Jays sprint away. Still, there was a sense of accomplishment about coming so close. Soon, good and then very good teams followed. PAGE D1
BUSINESS
WHEN SELLING A HOUSE
Means Still Paying for It
They are known as ''short sales,'' when a property is sold for less than the value of the mortgage on it, and they are increasing as home prices are tumbling. Reluctantly, banks are agreeing to let some short sales go through. But instead of writing off the unpaid portion of the debt, they want homeowners to sign a note promising to pay some or all of the balance due. PAGE C1
FUNDS UNINTERESTED IN BANKS
Less than a year ago, the sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East spent billions of dollars for minority stakes in Wall Street banks. But as the values of banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are swooning, Middle East funds are not biting. Bankers in the region say plenty of other, more attractive assets are out there right now. PAGE C4
RUSSIA MOVES TO SHORE UP MARKETS
The Russian government will inject $20 billion into domestic stocks in an effort to halt the free fall of the Russian stock markets, President Dmitri A. Medvedev said. The two main Russian stock exchanges remained closed after authorities halted trading Wednesday afternoon. The question is whether injecting capital -- which thanks to oil profits, Russia has plenty of -- will restore investor confidence, or whether it will be seen as a sign of desperation. PAGE C11
FORD SHOWS MORE EFFICIENT F-150
Ford showed reporters the 2009 model of its F-150 pickup and pitched its fuel economy. The new model, Ford said, is, on average, 8 percent more fuel efficient than its predecessor -- an improvement of roughly one or two miles per gallon. Some versions will be as much as 12 percent more efficient; a new version, the F-150 SFE, or ''superior fuel economy,'' will get 21 miles per gallon on the highway and 15 in city driving, the company said. PAGE C8
OBITUARIES
HENRY Z. STEINWAY, 93
The great-grandson of Heinrich Engelhard Steinway, the illiterate German immigrant before the ampersand in Steinway & Sons, he was the last Steinway to run the piano-making company his family started in 1853. PAGE B7
DIDIER DAGUENEAU, 52
An iconoclastic Loire Valley winemaker whose Pouilly-Fumes displayed a purity and subtlety far beyond most other sauvignon blanc wines. PAGE B6
ROBERT STEINBERG, 61
A food-loving doctor from San Francisco who threw himself into chocolate, eventually joining with one of his patients to make the Scharffen Berger Chocolate Maker brand one of the most highly regarded fine American chocolates. PAGE B6
ESCAPES
ON ROCK WALLS, WORKS
By Ancient Masters
Getting to them requires clambering over rocky mounds, crab-walking down steep slopes, sliding into irregular niches and scooching into crevices. But those willing to put in the effort can be witness to about 2,000 rock paintings, called pictographs, created by ancient artists and scattered over the 860 rugged acres of Hueco Tanks State Historic Site near El Paso, Tex. PAGE F1
TRAILING THOREAU
The north woods of Maine are not exactly as described by Henry David Thoreau a century and a half ago -- for one thing, the virgin forest trees have been cut, regrown and harvested again. But replacement evergreens stand tall again, the ''continuousness of the forest,'' as Thoreau put it, still ''uninterrupted.'' And hiking or paddling in his ''footsteps'' was made easier last year by the inauguration of the Thoreau-Wabanaki Trail. PAGE F4
Havens: Fairhope, Ala. F3
Weekend
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE SMALL,
But a Young Heart Can Help
At the junction of learning and play, there is spraying water, brightly colored toys, transparent walls for drawing and tunnels to crawl through. The Brooklyn Children's Museum has been given a $70 million renovation and its venerable environs are a veritable playground for small patrons and their adult chaperones. Page E27
THE MISANTHROPIC CAD AS MEDIUM
The spirits are restless, not to mention irritating, and left a lot of loose ends lying about. Enter our misanthropic dentist, (Ricky Gervais) and a resurrection of past movie figures like W. C. Fields and Cary Grant, along with current ones, like Greg Kinnear and Tea Leoni, in ''Ghost Town.'' A buoyant picture, packed with snappy dialogue, the chemistry of the three leads keep it afloat when similar films have sunk, writes Stephen Holden. Page E8
ROUGH IMAGES FOR HARD TIMES
If cowboys had been able to stop at the local saloon, grab a drink and a girl and retreat to the photo booth to produce some memories, it might have looked like this. ''America and the Tintype,'' at the International Center of Photography, exhibits examples from this early form of photography, which was almost like the photo booths of today, albeit with a muddier- looking issue, writes Karen Rosenberg. Page E30
A Blended Event of Many Dances E3
Editorial
IMMIGRATION DECEPTION
Yes, immigration is a complicated and combustible issue -- and the economic meltdown is everyone's top priority. No, that is no excuse for ignoring immigration or lying about it to voters, as Senators John McCain and Barack Obama have been doing. page A18
BANKERS AND SALARIES
Bankers' excessive risk-taking is a significant cause of this financial crisis, and it has contributed to others in the past. One way to address this problem is for bankers to have more of their own money at risk in the bets they are making. page A18
GUN LOBBY FIRST
The House stampeded past serious public-safety concerns and the democratic rights of residents of the District of Columbia on Wednesday to approve a bill that would gut sensible gun controls in the nation's capital. page A18
op-ed
PAUL KRUGMAN
Faced with a crisis spinning out of control, much of Washington appears to have decided that government isn't the problem, it's the solution. The unthinkable -- a government buyout of much of the private sector's bad debt -- has become the inevitable. page A19
DAVID BROOKS
This supposed new era of federal activism in the marketplace is going to confront some old problems: the lack of information available to government planners, the inability to keep up with or control complex economic systems, and the fact that political considerations invariably distort the best-laid plans. page A19
PRESENT AT THE CRASH
In an Op-Ed article, Sam G. Baris assures readers that, despite working at Lehman Brothers and having interned at Bear Sterns, he was not responsible for the demise of either firm. page A19
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The New York Times
September 19, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Immigration Deception
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL; Pg. 18
LENGTH: 554 words
Yes, immigration is a complicated and combustible issue for political candidates -- and the economic meltdown is everyone's top priority. No, that is no excuse for ignoring immigration or lying about it to voters, as John McCain and Barack Obama have been doing.
Mr. McCain lied first, in a Spanish-language ad that accused Mr. Obama of helping to kill immigration reform last year, by voting for amendments that supposedly doomed a bipartisan bill. The ad lamented the result: ''No guest worker program. No path to citizenship. No secure borders. No reform. Is that being on our side?''
That is a jaw-dropping distortion. The bill wasn't killed by any amendments. It was killed by a firestorm of talk-radio rage and a Republican-led filibuster. The very bill that Mr. McCain now mourns is the one he sidled away from as his own party weakened and killed it. It's the one he says he would now vote against.
For Mr. McCain to suggest that Mr. Obama opposes the ''path to citizenship'' and ''guest worker program'' compounds his dishonesty. Mr. Obama supports the three pillars of comprehensive reform -- tougher enforcement, expanded legal immigration and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already here.
Mr. McCain was an architect of just such a comprehensive bill. But he is also leading a party whose members rabidly oppose the path to citizenship. So, in deference to them, Mr. McCain now emphasizes border security as the utmost priority. Except when he's pandering in Spanish.
Mr. Obama's retaliatory ad, also in Spanish, was just as fraudulent. It slimed Mr. McCain as a friend and full-bore ally of restrictionists like Rush Limbaugh, even though Mr. Limbaugh has long attacked Mr. McCain's immigration moderation. It quotes Mr. Limbaugh as calling all Mexicans stupid and ordering them to ''shut your mouth or get out,'' which he never did.
Immigration was broken before the candidates started this repugnant ad war, and looks as if it will stay that way for at least the duration of this campaign.
Meanwhile, the Bush administration keeps raiding factories and farms, terrorizing immigrant families while exposing horrific accounts of workplace abuses. Children toil in slaughterhouses; detainees languish in federal lockups, dying without decent medical care. Day laborers are harassed and robbed of wages. An ineffective border fence is behind schedule and millions over budget. Local enforcers drag citizens and legal residents into their nets, to the cheers of the Minutemen.
Both candidates once espoused smart, thoughtful positions for fixing the problem. But Mr. McCain is shuffling in step with his restrictionist party. Mr. Obama gave immigration one brief mention at the Democratic convention, in a litany of big-trouble issues, like abortion, guns and same-sex marriage, on which he seemed to say that the best Americans could hope for are small compromises and to agree to disagree.
They're both wrong. The country needs to hear better answers, stated clearly and forthrightly over the shouting. The answer to immigration is what it was last year: comprehensive reform that extends order and the rule of law to a system that is broken in a million complex ways. Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama both know this. They should get back to telling the truth about it, in English and in Spanish.
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USA TODAY
September 19, 2008 Friday
FINAL EDITION
Fixing the economy; How would Barack Obama or John McCain really respond to the nation's financial turmoil? For a clue, check out their economic advisers.;
Finance, business vets help guide contenders
BYLINE: David Jackson, Kathy Kiely and Richard Wolf
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1A
LENGTH: 1570 words
The stock market tanks. Major banks and investment firms fail. The economy flirts with recession.
Who would President Barack Obama or President John McCain call?
The answer might be found in the people they call now: former Cabinet officials and corporate titans, staffers to past presidents and Congresses, economists who tamed double-digit inflation and beat back budget deficits.
Some of the candidates' economic advisers have deep ties to Wall Street -- and to the wildly lucrative, lightly regulated environment that contributed to the financial crisis rooted in risky mortgage lending.
As McCain rails against greed on Wall Street and Obama casts the current problems as the legacy of Republicans' devotion to deregulation of the financial industry, both candidates are in daily contact with a broad range of economic advisers -- some of whom could be in the next administration.
Team Obama is an ideologically diverse group including policy veterans such as Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers -- people who served Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton at the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department and White House. "A very reassuring team," says Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Team McCain is more professionally eclectic, reaching beyond Washington to Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who have run companies such as Hewlett-Packard and eBay. It trumpets low taxes and -- at least until now -- less regulation. "It's Reagan Republicanism," says Grover Norquist, president of the anti-tax group Americans for Tax Reform.
As the economy came to dominate the campaign agenda this week, it became clear that such advisers would play an increasingly important role in the seven weeks leading up to Election Day. The demise of Lehman Bros., the swallowing up of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and the government's takeover of insurance giant American International Group seem to have given Obama the debate he sought to have with McCain over how the Republican administration of George W. Bush has managed the economy this decade.
Both candidates have been ducking into meetings with economic advisers. Stanford University professor John Taylor, author of a globally recognized rule that guides central banks on setting interest rates, flew to Green Bay, Wis., on Thursday to meet with McCain before a campaign stop. Today, Obama will meet with several of his economic specialists in Coral Gables, Fla.
The learning curve is large for two politicians with a combined 30 years in Congress but who have never run a major company -- a point indelicately made this week by McCain adviser Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief who said none of the candidates for president or vice president was qualified to be CEO of a major company.
Don't look for all of these Democratic or Republican advisers to come to Washington in January. They're "not necessarily the cast of characters" who'll be in the next White House, says Stephen Hess, a Brookings Institution political scientist who worked in the Eisenhower and Nixon administrations. "Once Nov. 5 comes along, everything may be a different equation."
Veterans of economic wars
When Robert Reich, a University of California-Berkeley economist, showed up for an economic summit with Obama earlier this year, he was surprised by some of the company he was keeping.
"I never thought I would be sitting across a table from Paul O'Neill," says Reich, who was Clinton's Labor secretary. O'Neill was President Bush's first Treasury secretary.
The encounter encapsulated the diversity of Obama's economic team. The Illinois senator is "very, very insistent" on getting views from across a political and ideological spectrum, says Jason Furman, who directs economic policy for Obama's campaign and referees weekly conference calls to generate ideas.
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett and Jared Bernstein of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute have been asked to provide advice to Obama. The team also includes veterans of the Clinton administration -- some of whom helped write the legislation that tore down the regulatory walls between banking and investment firms -- and others, such as Reich, who think that such deregulation of financial markets laid the groundwork for today's problems.
"It was a mistake," says Reich, who had left the Clinton administration by the time the president signed the legislation.
Thomas "Mack" McLarty, Clinton's former White House chief of staff, and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs CEO who was in the Senate at the time, say abuses proliferated because the Bush administration refused to enforce protections within the law.
"The goal shouldn't be just to facilitate business, but to protect the public," says Corzine, another Wall Street veteran whom Obama has consulted.
In recent days, Obama has sought advice about the financial crisis from Summers and two other Clinton administration veterans -- Rubin, who preceded Summers as Treasury secretary, and former White House economic adviser Laura D'Andrea Tyson. Obama also has spoken with Volcker, 81, an emeritus professor of economics at Princeton University who chaired the Federal Reserve under Carter and Ronald Reagan.
All are deficit hawks likely to give Obama "fiscally conservative" advice, says Leon Panetta, who was Clinton's chief of staff and budget director. Volcker and Rubin also are veterans of major financial crises: Volcker is hailed for ending the double-digit inflation of the 1970s, Rubin for preventing the Mexican government from defaulting on its debts in the 1990s.
Several of Obama's advisers have ties to companies mired in the Wall Street crisis. Tyson is on the board of Morgan Stanley, which paid her $350,830 in stock and cash in 2006, according to Securities and Exchange Commission records.
Rubin is a senior adviser to Citigroup, a company embroiled in the crisis surrounding subprime mortgages that have been given to high-risk borrowers. Rubin's compensation from Citigroup in 2005 was $17 million, according to the SEC.
Another Obama adviser, William Donaldson, is a former Republican SEC chairman who once infuriated some on Wall Street by pushing for tougher regulations on hedge funds and mutual funds. Donaldson also is on the advisory council of a firm that's been retained by a former CEO of AIG. He says he has "no role at all" in the AIG matter.
Big business at the table
McCain's economic team is a far-flung enterprise, including dozens of specialists from Wall Street, universities and conservative think tanks -- most dedicated to Republican ideals of low taxes and less regulation.
"I have a big Rolodex," says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former Congressional Budget Office director who is McCain's domestic policy adviser. "McCain likes a broad array of views. He's not an ideological sort of guy."
The campaign's top economic advisers include Fiorina and Meg Whitman, formerly of eBay.
Democrats delight in pointing out Fiorina's dismissal by the Hewlett-Packard board, which granted her an $11 million payout, the type of going-away package McCain rails against. Fiorina notes McCain has called for shareholder approval for executive pay packages and says hers was backed by shareholders.
Many members of McCain's team are executives with strong ties to Wall Street:
* John Thain became CEO of Merrill Lynch in December, after its board ousted Stan O'Neal. Thain's $81 million pay package made him the second highest-earning CEO in the nation this year. Bloomberg News reported that Thain could make another $11 million in accelerated stock payouts in light of the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America.
* During 2007, Whitman's last full year as CEO at eBay, her salary, bonuses and stock options totaled $10 million. Forbes magazine estimated her personal wealth this year at $1.3 billion. In 2001 and 2002, she was director of Goldman Sachs, one of the two remaining independent investment banks in the USA.
Holtz-Eakin says he sees no conflict about consulting Thain, who joined the McCain team before taking over Merrill Lynch. He says Thain did a great job taking the company from a "troubled place" to a "successful purchase."
Other McCain advisers include deregulation specialist Peter Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute and Taylor, the Stanford professor. Also on McCain's list is Martin Feldstein, a top economics adviser to President Reagan.
Wallison, who has backed deregulation of business and financial markets throughout a career in government and the private sector, says he and McCain have "been for regulation when it's necessary." A former White House counsel to Ronald Reagan, he says McCain favored cracking down on the excesses of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "when the Democrats were opposed to it."
The financial crisis -- and the calls for increased regulation it has inspired -- has seemed to catch McCain off-guard at times. This week, he said he was opposed to a government bailout of insurance giant AIG. Then, after such a bailout was announced, he said it was probably necessary. (Obama did not express an opinion on the bailout but said it was the product of "failed economic policy" by Republicans.)
Thursday, McCain unveiled a plan to create a "mortgage and financial institutions trust" that would "identify institutions that are weak and take remedies to strengthen them."
Contributing: Ken Dilanian, Matt Kelley and Bruce Rosenstein.
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The Washington Post
September 19, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
As Michigan Goes . . .;
__
BYLINE: E. J. Dionne Jr.
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 779 words
DATELINE: GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.
If he carries Michigan, many routes to victory are open for Barack Obama. Without Michigan, he's got a big problem.
This state, which was living with economic catastrophe long before this week's Wall Street meltdown, could be to this election what Ohio was in 2004 and Florida was in 2000.
And voters here are so angry -- about unemployment at 9 percent and some of the country's highest rates of foreclosures and outbound one-way U-Haul rentals -- that no one is certain where they will lash out.
"What's challenging about Michigan is that they've suffered this economy in its worst form," said Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who has studied the state for years. "They blame the Democratic governor and the Democratic Party, and the Republican president and the Republican Party, and an elite they believe sold out their state."
It's no wonder, then, that John McCain and Sarah Palin held their first joint town hall meeting in this solidly Republican city Wednesday, or that McCain played his newly discovered populist tune during a visit earlier in the day at a General Motors plant. "We are not going to leave the workers here in Michigan hung out to dry," McCain said, "while we give billions in taxpayer dollars to Wall Street."
It's also no wonder that Detroit, Grand Rapids and Flint were three of the top five media markets nationally for political advertisements in the week after the party conventions, according to the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. Grand Rapids alone saw 1,197 of them.
Michigan matters hugely because it will be exceedingly difficult for Obama to assemble an electoral college majority unless he holds virtually every state carried by John Kerry four years ago. This is the most vulnerable of the big Kerry states. "Michigan," says Greenberg, "is the key to the whole map."
Most polls have given Obama a small lead, but he has special problems here. Because of the Democrats' wrangle over delegate rules, Obama did not campaign in the state's primary. "There's a lot of catch-up going on," says Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat.
Republicans are also trying to link Obama to Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, whose popularity has suffered with the economy. Saul Anuzis, chairman of the state Republican Party, describes Granholm as "an articulate, attractive woman who happens to be a Harvard graduate," generous words that he uses as a stiletto against Granholm's fellow Harvard Law graduate Obama.
"If you like what Jennifer Granholm has done in Michigan, you'll love what Barack Obama will do for America," says Anuzis, reciting the Republicans' battle cry. But Democrats such as Stabenow scoff at the idea that Republicans will be able to use Granholm to dodge local ire over President Bush's policies.
The choice of Palin has been helpful to McCain in western Michigan, with its large constituency of conservative Christians. On Wednesday, the faithful here greeted her with loud cries of "Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!" And noting the Palin family's penchant for snowmobiling, Anuzis reports that Michigan has the largest number of registered snowmobiles in the country -- more than 300,000, according to the American Council of Snowmobile Associations.
Obama is counting on a huge African American vote in Detroit, but the city's politics are in turmoil following Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's departure from office yesterday as part of a plea agreement related to perjury charges. Anuzis said the controversy has left the Detroit Democratic organization "splintered and divided." And a pro-McCain group has run an ad, clearly aimed at white suburban voters, linking Obama and Kilpatrick.
Anuzis is one of the few Republican politicians who say openly that Obama's race is an inescapable factor in the election. "Racism, like sexism, is not something people admit to," he says. He notes that McCain voters typically offer diverse reasons for supporting their candidate over Obama. His conclusion: "When they have five or six reasons, it's usually for another reason they don't want to mention."
"It is one of the most taboo subjects people can talk about," Anuzis adds. "Every time I bring it up, people cringe."
But by forcing Obama to sharpen his economic appeal, the bad news from Wall Street may prove to be a particularly potent tonic for his chances here. Former Democratic representative David Bonior believes that a very bad economy will brush aside "the Reagan Democrat social issues that are normally important in our state." So does Stabenow.
"For us to win Michigan, people have to understand that Barack Obama is going to put people back to work," she says. "That's going to trump every other division in the state."
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The Washington Post
September 19, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
Obama, McCain Trade Shots Over Responses to Financial Meltdown
BYLINE: Robert Barnes and Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 964 words
DATELINE: GREEN BAY, Wis., Sept. 18
Republican presidential nominee John McCain proposed the creation of a new financial institution to head off future Wall Street meltdowns as he and his Democratic rival both groped for a more robust response to the nation's deepening economic crisis.
At a town hall rally here on Thursday, McCain accused Sen. Barack Obama of "cheerleading" the gloomy financial news, urged the ouster of the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and said that Obama's running mate believes raising taxes is "patriotic."
Obama offered a blistering response during an appearance in Española, N.M., accusing the Republican of unleashing "an angry tirade against all the insiders and lobbyists who've supported him for 26 years -- the same folks who run his campaign."
The Democrat mocked McCain's call for the firing of the SEC commissioner, saying that such a move would not erase a "lifelong record" of support for the "policies and people who helped bring on this disaster."
The tough talk was the latest iteration of rapidly evolving responses to the financial crisis that has dominated headlines and the campaign since Monday. McCain said he would offer more details Friday about "what I will do as president to fix this crisis" even as he excoriated Obama.
Late Thursday, his campaign launched a TV ad noting that Obama had received advice from Franklin D. Raines, the former head of failed mortgage giant Fannie Mae, calling it "shocking" and saying: "Bad advice. Bad instincts. Not ready to lead."
"While the leaders of Fannie and Freddie were lining the pockets of his campaign, they were sowing the seeds of the financial crisis we see today, and they also enriched themselves with millions of dollars in payments," McCain said of Obama while campaigning in Iowa. "That's not change. That's what's broken in Washington, my friends."
The McCain campaign cited a July Washington Post profile of Raines as the source for his connection to Obama. In that profile, it was reported that he had "taken calls from Barack Obama's presidential campaign seeking his advice on mortgage and housing policy matters." In a statement issued by the Obama campaign late Thursday, Raines strongly denied having provided counsel to Obama, saying: "I am not an advisor to Barack Obama, nor have I provided his campaign with advice on housing or economic matters."
McCain proposed creating a mortgage and financial institutions trust to detect and prevent spectacular failures of banks, investment brokerages and insurance companies. He also plans to propose new consumer protections, the elimination of "golden parachutes" for chief executives, and more regulation and monitoring of financial institutions, aides said.
But his campaign declined to be specific about how his proposals would work, saying they did not want to preempt McCain's more detailed discussion of those issues in a speech on Friday.
"The MFI will enhance investor and market confidence, benefit sound financial institutions, assist troubled institutions and protect our financial system, while minimizing taxpayer exposure," McCain said.
McCain also lashed out at Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden Jr. after the senator from Delaware defended Obama's plan to raise taxes for the wealthy by saying: "It's time to be patriotic . . . time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut."
Campaigning in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, McCain said: "Raising taxes in a tough economy isn't patriotic. It's not a badge of honor. It's just plain dumb."
Obama reacted to McCain's tough rhetoric in kind, addressing the crowd in New Mexico with a passion he has rarely displayed on the stump.
"In the next 47 days, you can fire the whole trickle-down, on-your-own, look-the-other-way crowd in Washington who has led us down this disastrous path," he thundered. "Don't just get rid of one guy. Get rid of this administration. Get rid of this philosophy. Get rid of the do-nothing approach to our economic problem and put somebody in there who's going to fight for you."
Obama promised more information about his plan to create a Homeowner and Financial Support Act, which he said would emerge after a meeting with his top economic advisers Friday. He said it would provide capital and liquidity to financial institutions and markets and help families restructure mortgages.
Like McCain, he offered few details about his proposal, instead repeating his vows to cut taxes for 95 percent of working families, push through a $50 billion economic stimulus plan, and provide a tax credit to struggling families that would reduce their mortgage interest rates.
"Let's be clear: What we've seen the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed," Obama said.
Democrats seized on McCain's suggestion that President Bush fire SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, noting that the head of an independent agency is legally shielded from being fired. "After 26 years in Washington, you would think John McCain would understand how things work," said Damien LaVera, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee.
McCain advisers amended his statement, saying that he was suggesting that he would demand the resignation of the SEC chairman if he were president. "The president of the United States has the power to remove the chairmanship, and always reserves the right to request the resignation of an appointee and to maintain the customary expectation that it will be delivered," spokesman Brian Rogers said.
Meanwhile in Washington, Cox issued a statement of his own, saying: "The best response to political jabs like this is simply to put your head down and not lose a step doing the best job you can possibly do on behalf of those you serve."
Shear reported from Washington.
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IMAGE; By Chris Carlson -- Associated Press; At a rally in Española, N.M., Sen. Barack Obama responded to his rival's criticism with a passion he has rarely displayed while campaigning.
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The Washington Post
September 19, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
Trying to Get Christian Music Fans to Tune To the Left
BYLINE: Michelle Boorstein; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1360 words
Fans of Christian music, listeners to Christian radio, watchers of Christian TV -- you're very attractive, did you know that?
After years of living in a quiet, monogamous relationship with the Republican Party, you are being courted by the Democrats. These leftie operatives say it's not enough to be the de facto political party of Hollywood, with its nudity and violence. Now Barack Obama's supporters have a new frontier in their sights: Nashville.
In addition to being the home of country music, Nashville has long been the literal and metaphoric capital of the gospel and contemporary Christian music industries, as well as a hot spot for Christian radio and TV. This, industry folks say, is a land populated by GOP-voting listeners.
Sure, anyone who's been paying attention knows the Democrats have ramped up their outreach to religious voters in the past few years, but a concerted effort to reach into Christian Medialand has intensified recently and will continue beyond the November election.
We're talking rallies against global warming and capital punishment, at Christian music concerts. Obama ads on Christian radio. Consumers of gospel music getting bombarded with campaign literature from Democratic candidates.
That means the good people of Ohio will be peacefully listening to a radio preaching out of the Book of Revelation when suddenly -- "Jesus said, inasmuch as you did unto the least of these, you have done it to me" . . . calming instrumental music in the background . . . "As a Christian," says pro-life Democrat and former Ohio congressman Tony Hall, "Barack believes God calls us to care for those in need . . . "
That's a new radio ad scheduled to air on Christian radio in Ohio next week.
"We have people calling every Christian radio station; we want to know about their newsroom, what news services they use, how can we communicate with them. Oftentimes, they'll say we are the first Democrats to ever call," drawls Burns Strider, a Mississippi native who led faith outreach for Hillary Clinton. Strider launched a partnership this summer with Rick Hendrix, a major Christian music promoter, to connect Christian music fans with Democratic candidates. At any given time, listeners to Christian talk and music radio make up about 2.7 percent of all listeners, according to Arbitron.
While consumers of Christian entertainment are predominantly conservative, those in the business long have been more politically diverse than listeners realize.
"I think it would be shocking to a lot of people if you interviewed Christian artists, the split would be pretty even" between Republicans and Democrats, says Grant Hubbard, vice president of promotion for EMI Christian Music Group, one of the biggest labels. "The consumer, on the other hand, is about 80-20."
The biggest evangelist for Democrats is Hendrix, a 38-year-old schmoozy North Carolinian who was behind the marketing of religious blockbuster "The Passion of the Christ." Despite being a player in the Christian Media Kingdom, he thought -- until recently -- that he had to stay in the political closet.
Until Hillary Clinton.
"My grandmother was born the year women got the right to vote, and I was raised by a lot of strong-willed women. I just got passionate about her," says Hendrix, who gets a strangely dreamy sound in his voice when he talks about meeting Madeleine Albright at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
Hendrix has demanded that his musician clients let him stage rallies or set up informational tables for Democrats, at or near their shows, whether they like it or not. About half his artists are fine with that, he says, while the others agree somewhat reluctantly.
But how does this cultural crusade go down with fans? If Hendrix's experience is a barometer, it may be a mixed bag. He says he staged hundreds of Clinton events at concerts before she dropped out, including Young Harmony at Ole Country Church in McDonough, Ga., and the gospel group Heirline at Victory Baptist Church in Dallas. There were repercussions. Someone tried to run over a volunteer (yes, with a car) in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Coffee was thrown in Hendrix's face in Raleigh, N.C. A few radio stations he worked with sent back his CDs, cracked.
"He could have possibly lost his business," says Angie Hoskins, a "lifelong Democrat" who has won multiple awards with her gospel band, the Hoskins Family.
The scene for a Democratic performer is "tough. It. Is. Tough," she says. "We have to be really careful how much we say, because in the industry we work in, it can pretty much kick you out if you're not careful."
Derek Webb, an award-winning contemporary Christian musician who considers himself politically independent, says many churches stopped inviting him to play after he came out in 2005 with "A King and a Kingdom," which included these lyrics:
There are two great lies that I've heard
"The day you eat of the fruit of that tree, you will not surely die"
And that Jesus Christ was a white, middle-class Republican
What chances does this campaign have? Alan Mason, a programming consultant for contemporary Christian radio stations, says he tells clients to pay attention to the Democratic outreach because the next generation of listeners may have somewhat different views. "There is a real change going on," he says. "It's important we understand."
And Hendrix said he found 100 people eager to talk Democratic values with him in Louisville, at the National Quartet Convention, a Christian singing event.
That may be an anomaly, suggest other industry insiders. Listeners are "unmistakably" conservative, particularly on issues of when life begins and of marriage, says Joe Davis, president of the radio division for Salem Communications, the country's largest Christian radio broadcaster, with shows going to 2,000 affiliates.
Amy Sullivan, a journalist who recently wrote "The Party Faithful: How and Why Democrats Are Closing the God Gap," said yesterday at a convention of religion reporters that her book title may have been overly hopeful. "The playing field isn't terribly different than it was 2004," she said.
Some industry insiders say performers should keep their yaps shut about politics or risk alienating customers. No one has forgotten the Dixie Chicks, who temporarily lost a large swath of their audience -- and got death threats that the FBI took seriously -- after criticizing President Bush in 2003.
Hubbard, the promoter from EMI, contends that Christian artists have loftier things on their minds, anyway. "The majority of our artists look at what they are trying to accomplish as much bigger than who will be the next president," he says.
"I want to tell a story that transcends politics," says Sara Groves, a singer who performed before the Republican convention. "A lot of [Christian musicians] I'm talking to are talking about what's wrong with both parties, and we're dreaming about, wouldn't it be great if there was this common human goal?"
Meanwhile, Tom Tradup, who oversees national syndicated talk shows for Salem Radio Network, says Democrats' absence on Christian radio is their own fault. "Senator [John] McCain has appeared on virtually every show on my network at least a half-dozen times since primary season began. We have a red carpet out on every Salem show since Obama announced, and so far we've seen neither hide nor hair of him," he says. At the Denver convention, he says, he repeatedly tried to nab Obama or his religious outreach staffers to go on air, to no avail.
A spokesman for the Obama campaign said yesterday that the focus has been on local radio, including some Salem stations.
But the Democratic machine's drive toward Nashville (and California, home of Salem, and Colorado, home of the massive Focus on the Family organization) seems likely to eventually reach Tradup.
Hendrix and Strider have formed a consulting group and are building a massive mailing list of Christian media consumers that can be used by Democratic candidates and those promoting liberal issues, such as global warming. And Hendrix might want to use that list himself: He recently announced his plans to run for the U.S. House from North Carolina in 2010.
LOAD-DATE: September 19, 2008
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IMAGE; Rick Hendrix Co.; Promoter Rick Hendrix insists that his clients let him stage rallies or set up informational tables for Democrats. The reception is sometimes negative.
IMAGE; By Peter Sachs -- Religion News Service; Burns Strider is working with a major Christian music promoter to connect fans with Democratic candidates.
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The Washington Post
September 19, 2008 Friday
Regional Edition
'Always for Less Regulation'?;
John McCain's record on Wall Street oversight gets some misleading spin from Barack Obama.
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A18
LENGTH: 685 words
TO LISTEN to Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. John McCain is a Johnny-come-lately to the cause of regulating financial markets. "He has consistently opposed the sorts of common-sense regulations that might have lessened the current crisis," Mr. Obama said in New Mexico yesterday. "When I was warning about the danger ahead on Wall Street months ago because of the lack of oversight, Senator McCain was telling the Wall Street Journal -- and I quote -- 'I'm always for less regulation.' "
But the full quotation from Mr. McCain's March interview with the Journal's editorial board belies Mr. Obama's one-sided rendition. The Republican candidate went on to say, "But I am aware of the view that there is a need for government oversight. I think we found this in the subprime lending crisis -- that there are people that game the system and if not outright broke the law, they certainly engaged in unethical conduct which made this problem worse. So I do believe that there is role for oversight."
It's fair to say that Mr. McCain has dramatically ramped up the regulatory rhetoric in the wake of the meltdown on Wall Street. Mr. Obama made the argument about the need for increased oversight much earlier. And Mr. McCain has generally taken an anti-regulatory stance, although not in all cases -- his support for federal regulation of tobacco and boxing being prominent counter-examples. Mr. McCain backed a moratorium on all new federal regulation in 1995, saying that excessive regulations were "destroying the American family, the American dream." On the campaign trail in 2000, he touted his record of voting "for smaller government, for less regulation."
However, when it comes to regulating financial institutions and corporate misconduct, Mr. McCain's record is more in keeping with his current rhetoric. In the aftermath of the Enron collapse and other accounting scandals, he was a leader, with Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.), in pushing to require that companies treat stock options granted to employees as expenses on their balance sheets. "I have long opposed unnecessary regulation of business activity, mindful that the heavy hand of government can discourage innovation," he wrote in a July 2002 op-ed in the New York Times. "But in the current climate only a restoration of the system of checks and balances that once protected the American investor -- and that has seriously deteriorated over the past 10 years -- can restore the confidence that makes financial markets work."
Mr. McCain was an early voice calling for the resignation of Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt, charging that he "seems to prefer industry self-policing to necessary lawmaking. Government's demands for corporate accountability are only credible if government executives are held accountable as well."
In 2006, he pushed for stronger regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- while Mr. Obama was notably silent. "If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole," Mr. McCain warned at the time.
One element of the Obama campaign's brief against Mr. McCain is that he supported repeal of the law separating commercial banks from investment banks. "He's spent decades in Washington supporting financial institutions instead of their customers," Mr. Obama said yesterday. "Phil Gramm, one of the architects of the deregulation in Washington that led directly to this mess on Wall Street, is also the architect of John McCain's economic plan." Would it be churlish to point out that another author of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley law is former congressman Jim Leach, a founder of Republicans for Obama? Or that Obama advisers Lawrence H. Summers and Robert E. Rubin supported the repeal -- which was signed by President Bill Clinton?
It's a reasonable question which candidate has been more attentive to the brewing problems on Wall Street and which has a better prescription for them. But Mr. Obama's attack does not give a fair reading of the McCain record.
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The Washington Post
September 19, 2008 Friday
Met 2 Edition
GOP Sees Rebound in Battle for Congress;
Party Hopes Momentum Will Help Limit Losses
BYLINE: Shailagh Murray and Paul Kane; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1436 words
Like many of her Republican colleagues concerned about their reelection prospects, Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina skipped the party's national convention to focus on campaigning back home. But even in her absence, the gathering may have given her bid for a return to office its biggest boost yet.
Volunteers began showing up at GOP campaign offices at quadruple the pre-convention pace, many of them conservatives who were lukewarm to presidential nominee John McCain but ecstatic about his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Their enthusiasm could be Dole's saving grace on Nov. 4.
"We have to move out of here and take on this fight big-time," Dole said at a GOP dinner in North Carolina earlier this month, acknowledging, "We're in a very tough cycle."
After months of fundraising doldrums, recruitment misfires and daunting polls, Republicans believe they are finally on the rebound in the battle for Congress. Both sides concede that the GOP stands almost no chance of taking back the House or Senate in November, but party leaders think the Palin factor and an increasingly competitive fight for the White House have generated enthusiasm and momentum that could limit GOP losses to only a few Senate seats and perhaps fewer than a dozen House seats.
As evidence of the jolt provided to the party base by the Republican convention and the selection of Palin, strategists point to recent polls showing a bounce in "generic" polling. In August, a USA Today-Gallup poll gave Democrats a 51 to 42 percent lead on the question of which party voters would support in a congressional election in their district. In the days after the GOP convention in St. Paul, Minn., ended earlier this month, Republicans had climbed to a 50 to 45 percent advantage.
Republicans are especially bullish about the changing Senate landscape. Democrats have never envisioned an easy path to a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority, but polls suggest that prospect has been reduced to a near impossibility in recent weeks.
Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign has pulled out of Georgia, probably a fatal blow to former state representative Jim Martin in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Another long shot, state Rep. Rick Noriega in Texas, has been outraised 9 to 1 by Republican Sen. John Cornyn. State Sen. Andrew Rice is not showing significant gains against GOP Sen. James M. Inhofe in Oklahoma, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins appears to be holding firm in Maine, where she faces Rep. Tom Allen.
"Sarah Palin definitely gave a boost, no question" said Sen. John Ensign (Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "In races where we were way down, a lot of those races are even. In some of the races that were even, we are up." And public polls do not tell the full story, Ensign argued. He said internal data show a decisive shift among likely Republican voters who appear ready to turn out in droves on Election Day in states across the board.
But Democrats continue to believe that their prospects remain bright in a number of states that would normally appear to be reaches for the party, including the showdown in North Carolina between Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan. The party's best chances in the Senate are open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, gateways to two regions -- the South and the West -- that Democrats hope they have room to grow in. The party also has strong potential in Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire and even Mississippi.
Despite the Dole campaign's renewed optimism, polls show the presidential race is close in North Carolina, and congressional elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg recently shifted the state race from "narrow advantage for incumbent" to "tossup," concluding in his Sept. 10 newsletter that "North Carolina is a problem for Republicans."
Mississippi is a GOP headache that neither party anticipated until Democrats scored an unlikely victory in a special election to fill a vacant House seat in the state earlier this year. Party leaders convinced former governor Ronnie Musgrove to challenge Sen. Roger Wicker, who was appointed to the seat left vacant by Republican Trent Lott's resignation earlier this year. The NRSC has become so concerned with its prospects there that it announced this week that it would finance its second statewide round of advertising for Wicker.
Ensign said he remains "very confident" that Republicans will be able to prevail in North Carolina and Mississippi, but acknowledged that such unexpected vulnerabilities have created a financial hardship for his committee -- which lagged far behind its Democratic counterpart in available cash, $43 million to $25 million, at the end of July.
Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the only discernable slippage in Senate polls for Democrats has come in Alaska, Palin's home state (although he noted that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is still favored over Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, who will go on trial next week on corruption charges).
Disputing Ensign's rosy view of the playing field for Republicans, Schumer said Democratic candidates have stabilized in Colorado and New Hampshire and have gained in races in Oregon and Minnesota. "I expected us to be down in the last two weeks in a number of races," he said. "But we have found that the little surge that McCain and Palin have had, which we think is temporary, has not affected our Senate races. We're in better shape today than we were a month ago."
Republican optimism also is on the rise in the House, where more than 70 seats are considered competitive. Minority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) predicted that increased enthusiasm among Christian conservatives will result in a strong finish for McCain and GOP congressional candidates. In addition to Palin, Blunt credited McCain with his performance in a nationally televised appearance with evangelical minister Rick Warren that was well received by conservatives, along with his reversal on offshore oil drilling (McCain now favors expanding production).
"We still have some significant challenges out there, but House Republicans are feeling a lot better," Blunt said.
Democrats continue to take heart in the fact that President Bush remains deeply unpopular -- something a fresh round of economic turmoil is unlikely to change -- and the party's challengers in races nationwide, such as Hagan, are working furiously to link Republican incumbents to his legacy. The president frequently visited North Carolina when Dole ran for the Senate six years ago. The former Cabinet secretary touted her close ties to the administration.
Dole's loyalty may now be cutting the other way. Hagan connects her to Bush in every speech and campaign ad, and even Dole insiders concede that Hagan's hard-charging style and aggressive fundraising paid early dividends, drawing the notice of Democratic leaders months ago and resulting in a big advertising investment for her despite Dole's lopsided victory in 2002.
Neither side is pulling punches. One pro-Hagan DSCC ad featured two older men in rocking chairs debating whether Dole was "92" or "93" -- a reference to her voting percentage in support of Bush, but widely interpreted as a dig at her age (she is 72).
Dole responded with an ad questioning Hagan's truthfulness, portraying the Democrat as a barking dog named "Fibber Kay." An NRSC-funded spot features a Dr. Seuss-style reading lesson about Hagan's tax record.
But Hagan's biggest asset may be the massive Obama organizing effort that began in the state during the primary season. New voter registrations favor Democrats by an 8 to 1 ratio.
Hagan said she noticed "a bump after the Republican convention," but contends her race with Dole "is starting to settle back down." Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), the Democratic vice presidential nominee, campaigned in Charlotte earlier this week, and Obama's wife, Michelle, appeared on her behalf in Greensboro yesterday.
Dole spokesman Dan McLagan said he is confident that the race has shifted. "I get the sense that we're starting to pull away," he said. But state political experts say the outcome is far from clear.
Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at North Carolina State University, said: "The state is increasingly cosmopolitan, with a large number of people who have moved in from the East and the Midwest. Dole used to be seen as the kind of Republican who should do well in the new demographics. The old Republican model was seen as antiquated, and she represented the new model. If she can't win, or doesn't win, I think it says more than 'It's a bad year.' "
LOAD-DATE: September 19, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Chuck Liddy -- News And Observer; Sen. Elizabeth Dole, with husband Robert J. Dole, is relying on enthusiasm from GOP faithful in her reelection bid.
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The New York Times
September 18, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
McCain, on the Economy
BYLINE: By LARRY ROHTER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 468 words
This advertisement for Senator John McCain is the third this week in which he addresses the nation's financial crisis. Called ''Foundation,'' it is 30 seconds long and will be broadcast nationally.
PRODUCER Foxhole Productions
THE SCRIPT Voice of Mr. McCain: ''You, the American workers, are the best in the world. But your economic security has been put at risk by the greed of Wall Street. That's unacceptable. My opponent's only solutions are talk and taxes. I'll reform Wall Street and fix Washington. I've taken on tougher guys than this before.'' Announcer's voice: ''Change is coming. John McCain.''
THE SCREEN Against a dark background, Mr. McCain addresses the camera. As he speaks, scenes from the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange flash across the screen, followed by a street sign that says Wall Street. Then it is back to Mr. McCain, whose image gives way to that of Senator Barack Obama, with his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., in the background. Mr. McCain speaks to viewers one last time before the screen dissolves to a still photograph of him, accompanied by the phrase ''The Original Maverick.''
ACCURACY According to a 2007 study by the International Labor Organization, workers in Norway are the world's most productive (when measured on an hourly basis), followed by the United States and France. Mr. Obama has offered detailed proposals on the economy, for stemming the mortgage default crisis and channeling investment into activities that will generate new jobs. He would raise capital gains taxes as well as income and Social Security taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year, but the notion that he would also increase taxes on middle-class voters has been repeatedly debunked. Studies have found that Mr. Obama would offer most Americans a tax cut three times the size of what Mr. McCain proposes. Finally, Mr. McCain's record has favored deregulation of the financial industry, a factor that analysts say has contributed to the credit crisis, and opposed creation of a government agency to oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
SCORECARD Mr. McCain got himself into trouble on Monday by arguing that ''the fundamentals of our economy are strong'' despite the Wall Street crisis. This advertisement is an effort to rebound from that much-criticized statement with a populist appeal that echoes Mr. Obama's mantra of ''change.'' In addition, Mr. McCain seems to be evoking his history as a prisoner of war to underline his argument that he has more experience than Mr. Obama and is therefore more qualified to be president. But he has on occasion also acknowledged that economics is not his strongest suit, so with the financial markets drifting into uncharted waters, it is hard to tell if the experience argument will convince voters. LARRY ROHTER
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The New York Times
September 18, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
The McCain Of the Week
BYLINE: By GAIL COLLINS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 35
LENGTH: 771 words
DATELINE: VIENNA, Ohio
''The people of Ohio are the most productive in the world!'' yelled John McCain at a rally outside of Youngstown on Tuesday. Present company perhaps excluded, since the crowd was made up entirely of people who were at liberty in the middle of a workday.
Folks were wildly enthusiastic as the event began. That was partly because Sarah Palin was also on the bill. (With Todd!) And when McCain took the center stage, they were itching to cheer the war hero and boo all references to pork-barrel spenders.
Nobody had warned them that he had just morphed into a new persona -- a raging populist demanding more regulation of the nation's financial system. And since McCain's willingness to make speeches that have nothing to do with his actual beliefs is not matched by an ability to give them, he wound up sounding like Bob Dole impersonating Huey Long.
Really, if McCain is going to keep changing into new people, the campaign should send out notices. (Come to a rally for the next president of the United States. Today he's a vegetarian!)
''We're going to put an end to the abuses on Wall Street -- enough is enough!'' this new incarnation yelled, complaining angrily about greed and overpaid C.E.O.'s. Slowly, people begin to peel out of the crowd and drift away. Even in these troubled times, there are apparently a number of Republicans who think highly of corporate executives and captains of high finance.
The whole transformation was fascinating in a cheap-thrills kind of way. It's not every day, outside of ''Incredible Hulk'' movies, that you see somebody make this kind of turnaround in the scope of a few hours.
On Monday in Jacksonville, Fla., McCain made his now-famous reassurance that the fundamentals of the economy were still good. It's a longstanding line of his, but this was perhaps not the best week to dredge it up. So the handlers went to work, and by the time McCain arrived in Orlando a few hours later he was reprogrammed. And angry!
''We're going to put an end to the abuses on Wall Street! Enough is enough! We're going to put an end to the greed!'' he told a town hall meeting crowded with Hispanic Republicans. It was a rather jumbled message, but the new story line was firm. The fundamentals were not things like employment rates or trade statistics. The fundamentals were the workers.
We are the fundamentals!
And, naturally, the humble, hard-working fundamentals are good. Who could doubt it? Was Barack Obama trying to say that he didn't think the American working man and woman was good? Was this the sort of thing they talked about at those fancy-schmancy Hollywood fund-raisers? Which, of course, John McCain hates. Give him some hard cider and a log cabin, and he's happy as a clam.
But wait! The fundamentals are in danger! At risk because of ''greed.'' Which John McCain was shocked to discover has been running rampant in the canyons of Wall Street.
Now in an election like this, you expect a certain amount of tactical reimagining. McCain used to like reporters, and now he treats them as if they were carrying the Ebola virus. Fair enough, although given the fact that he's terrible at speeches, and the famous town halls have now become Republican-only lovefests, the campaign really should invent some new method of communication. (And remember, the man doesn't text.)
It is also disconcerting, of course, to hear the Republicans rail against Washington as if the Socialist Workers Party had been running things there for the last eight years. But really, what would you do if you were McCain? There aren't a lot of options, and he never did like George W. anyway.
This new tactic is different. McCain has always, genuinely, believed in dismantling government regulations, and there he was, vowing to create new ''comprehensive regulations that will apply the rules and enforce them to the fullest.'' It makes you think that he's trying to impersonate something he's not. Or wasn't. Or might not be. The image is getting fuzzy.
This week, while McCain's chief economic adviser was telling reporters that it was wrong to ''run for president by denigrating everything in sight and trying to scare people,'' McCain's ad people were unveiling a new spot announcing ''Our economy in crisis!'' and calling for ''tougher rules on Wall Street'' along, of course, with more offshore drilling. Mournful unemployment-line music swells.
I have absolutely no idea of how John McCain would handle a financial crisis if he were president. But on behalf of all the nation's fundamentals I would like to say that he now has me ready to stage a run on the first bank in sight.
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The New York Times
September 18, 2008 Thursday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
Saturating the Swing States
BYLINE: By JULIE BOSMAN
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; ADVERTISING; Pg. 23
LENGTH: 165 words
The presidential nominees have poured more than $15 million into television advertising since the end of the parties' national political conventions, mostly in a handful of battleground states in the Midwest, according to a study released Wednesday by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.
In the week after the Republican convention, Senator Barack Obama spent $7.7 million on advertisements in 17 states, while Senator John McCain spent $7.8 million on spots in 15 states.
Fifty-six percent of the commercials from Mr. McCain were negative, and 77 percent of those from Mr. Obama were negative, the study found.
Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain spent roughly the same amount in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Mr. Obama outspent Mr. McCain in nearly every other state.
Mr. Bush made his only appearances in commercials for Mr. Obama, where he was mentioned alongside Mr. McCain every time Mr. McCain appeared. Mr. Bush was not mentioned in any McCain spots. JULIE BOSMAN
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: September 18, 2008
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CORRECTION-DATE: September 20, 2008
CORRECTION: A report in The Caucus column on Thursday about a study of television advertising in the presidential campaign referred incorrectly to spending by Senators Barack Obama and John McCain from Sept. 6 to Sept. 13.
Mr. Obama outspent Mr. McCain in eight states, including Michigan; Mr. McCain outspent Mr. Obama in nine states, including Ohio and Pennsylvania. They did not spend ''roughly the same amount in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania,'' and Mr. Obama did not outspend Mr. McCain in ''nearly every other state'' in the study. (A chart accompanying the article was correct.)
GRAPHIC: CHART: TV advertising spending, Sept. 6-13 Chart details thousands spent.
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USA TODAY
September 18, 2008 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
Economic upheaval shakes campaign debate;
Bleak outlook shunts other issues aside
BYLINE: Richard Wolf
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 2A
LENGTH: 525 words
WASHINGTON -- After a week in which the political focus kept returning to lipstick and pigs, this week's economic implosions have refocused the policy debate and threatened to reconfigure the political landscape.
"We're facing, essentially, an economic 9/11," says Leon Panetta, White House chief of staff and budget director under President Clinton. "Rather than deciding who's wearing lipstick, they're focusing on your basic pocketbook issues."
Last week, newspapers featured a photo of Barack Obama arriving for a taping of the Late Show with David Letterman. Obama's latest TV role is in a two-minute ad laying out his prescriptions for the ailing economy.
Much of the coverage of John McCain's campaign last week centered on his running mate, Sarah Palin. By Wednesday, the talk of the campaign was all about reforming Wall Street.
The renewed attention to the economy gives both candidates a chance to move away from their parties' pasts. For McCain, that means an activist approach to changing Wall Street and Washington, not the deregulation for which Republicans are known. For Obama, it means including tax cuts and energy production in his mix of more liberal salves.
On Wednesday, Obama denounced McCain's "eleventh-hour conversion" to the cause of regulation, while McCain promoted his record of government reform and softened his earlier opposition to a government rescue of the American International Group.
The economy was at the top of voters' minds in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, taken Sept. 5-7. More than two in three respondents cited an economic issue, including energy or health care costs, as their biggest concern. The cratering of Wall Street titans and its impact on jobs, pensions and portfolios are likely to cement those worries.
"I always thought this was a campaign about the economy," says Doug Holtz-Eakin, McCain's top policy adviser. "In the end, it's about will this disaster on Wall Street roll over and crush the Main Street economy."
Though more talk about the economy may be a good thing for voters, it poses a risk for both candidates: McCain acknowledged early in the campaign that the economy wasn't his strong suit, and Obama has a short economic resume.
Obama emerged from Wall Street's wreckage Wednesday with the better chance of making gains, some analysts say. Polls show voters side with Democrats on the economy.
"The tectonic plates shifted, and it's the economy, it's the financial sector, it's Wall Street," says Robert Reischauer, president of the non-partisan Urban Institute, an economics and social policy think tank. "The Republicans have been identified with market deregulation, with low taxes on financial executives, and let capitalism and markets show their stuff."
Others say McCain can point to his support for tighter regulations on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, last week's federal bailout targets. And he can tout his opposition to tax increases.
"I think the jury's out on who this is going to benefit," says Pat Toomey, a Republican former congressman who leads the anti-tax Club for Growth. McCain, he says, "is on the right side of the tax issue, in the minds of the general public."
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The Washington Post
September 18, 2008 Thursday
Suburban Edition
Recent Obama Ads More Negative Than Rival's, Study Says;
Democrat Said to Be Facing Pressure to 'Show Some Spine'
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 420 words
Despite perceptions that Sen. John McCain has spent more time on the attack, Sen. Barack Obama aired more negative advertising last week than did the Arizona Republican, says a study released yesterday.
Seventy-seven percent of the Illinois Democrat's commercials were negative during the week after the Republican National Convention, compared with 56 percent of the spots run by McCain.
Ken Goldstein, who directed the study by the Wisconsin Advertising Project, based at the University of Wisconsin, says the pattern was a reversal from earlier months, in which McCain's advertising was consistently more negative than Obama's.
"It suggests that the Sarah Palin pick and the newfound aggressiveness by McCain got into Obama's head a little bit," Goldstein said. "He was under great pressure to show some spine, be aggressive, fire back."
The study found Obama limiting his television buys to 17 states and McCain airing spots in 15. For all the talk of an expanded electoral map, both campaigns are concentrating resources in traditional battlegrounds, with slightly more than half the total spent on advertising going to Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
"Shockingly, this race is going to come down to swing voters in the same swing states that decided the last two elections," Goldstein said.
The study says the campaigns poured $15 million into the ad wars last week -- they were virtually even in total spending -- but the figures revealed an important distinction. Obama, who has rejected public financing in favor of private fundraising, paid for 97 percent of his spots. McCain, who is limited to an $84 million federal subsidy, financed 43 percent of his commercials, with the rest airing in conjunction with the Republican National Committee. These "hybrid" spots allow McCain to retain control while the party foots much of the bill.
Obama spent more on ads in Florida, $1.3 million, but that was nearly matched by McCain's $1 million. The most McCain spent was in traditionally Democratic Pennsylvania -- $1.6 million to Obama's $948.000.
Obama was on the air in Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota and Montana, all states won by President Bush in the last two elections.
Interest-group advertising was marginal at $187,000, although that is expected to ramp up in the coming weeks. Three pro-Obama groups aired commercials -- the Service Employees International Union, Defenders of Wildlife and Planned Parenthood -- while one, Vets for Freedom, ran spots on McCain's behalf.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 18, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
Potomac Confidential;
Washington's Hour of Talk Power
BYLINE: Marc Fisher, Post Metro Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 9129 words
HIGHLIGHT: Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live. This week he examines the Virginia U.S. Senate debate, the struggle over whether the District's homeless should have a place to stay in downtown Washington, and new accusations of overuse of SWAT teams in Prince George's County.
Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live. This week he examines the Virginia U.S. Senate debate, the struggle over whether the District's homeless should have a place to stay in downtown Washington, and new accusations of overuse of SWAT teams in Prince George's County.
Fisher was online Thursday, Sept. 18, at Noon ET.
The transcript follows.
Check out Marc's blog, Raw Fisher.
In his weekly show, Fisher veers wildly from serious probing to silly prattle, and is open to topics local, national, personal and more.
Archives: Discussion Transcripts
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Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, folks.
The nation's financial markets are in disarray, nobody knows where to put their money safely, and the presidential campaign seems to be off in its own universe, a place where pigs, Alaskan municipal affairs and the merits of being an "outsider" take precedence over basic questions such as: Are we living beyond our means? Is it good to have a society divided by deep economic inequalities? What kind of jobs will sustain our country a generation from now?
And our Congress, how are they coping with this turning point in American history? Why, they're busy meddling in the affairs of the District of Columbia, spending their time writing gun laws for the city, because no right-thinking congressman would want to have to go home without being able to tell his constituents that he has saved Washington from the opportunity to have lots more guns on its streets. How do you feel about your congressman's vote on the D.C. gun bill yesterday?
The Virginia U.S. Senate debate between former governors Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner just ended a moment ago -- did you see it? First reactions?
Today's column looks at the battle over whether homeless people should be guaranteed a place to sleep in downtown Washington, or should be sent to apartments of their own out in the neighborhoods. The Sunday column visited with Cheye Calvo, the mayor of Berwyn Heights in Prince George's County whose family was the victim of a SWAT team assault this summer, a traumatic moment occasioned by a drug dealer's scheme to deliver a box of marijuana to an innocent person's house, where the dealer would intercept his stuff, ideally sight unseen. The event has sparked a new debate over how extensively SWAT teams are used and the impact that has on community trust in police.
On to your many comments and questions, but first, let's call the Yay and Nay of the Day:
Yay to congressmen Jim Moran of Virginia and Chris Van Hollen, Donna Edwards, Steny Hoyer and Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland for standing up for D.C. home rule by refusing to go along with yesterday's abusive move to stuff the District, even as its government moved (belatedly) to bring its gun laws into accord with this summer's Supreme Court ruling.
Nay to the D.C. police and government for refusing to disclose details of two investigations into the police shooting of 14-year-old Deonte Rawlings. The reports cleared police of any wrongdoing, but the city mysteriously says that the reports include details that cannot be released. It's hard enough to swallow the notion that the shooting was entirely justified, but to have to do so on the police department's say-so, without any details from the report, is simply too much to ask.
(We don't normally do financial issues here, but I'm curious -- what stories would you want to read about the current crisis? What impact are you feeling or do you anticipate and what would you want to read to help you through it?)
Your turn starts right now....
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Marc, I'm sure you won't like this, but your most recent blog has made me decide to vote for the slots referendum! I was on the fence before, but knowing that 87% of the proceeds goes back to the players was the deciding factor. That's a much higher percentage than any other type of gambling with which I'm familiar. I'm impressed.
Marc Fisher: Hey, happy to provide a public service, even if you end up on the other side of an issue from me. My point, though, was that whatever you think of state-sponsored slots casinos, the government owes it to the voters to present the ballot question honestly. Why not lay out right there on the ballot exactly what the breakdown would be, how much of each dollar would go to the casino operators, the horse tracks and the state's budget? Is there any reason not to do that other than to try to trick voters into believing that the money is going somewhere other than where it really would go?
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Gaithersburg, Md.: If we were sincere about this "education proposal", why in the world aren't we putting in table games and capitalizing on poker's popularity? Sure it costs the casinos more, but if we're really trying to create jobs and raise revenue, bring in real casinos! Why should I drive to Atlantic City and give money to New Jersey, instead of driving to Frederick or Annapolis?
This is bottom line a prop up for racetracks. Slots are for the mindless, at least poker and blackjack requires I exercise my brain.
Marc Fisher: I'm all for casinos if that's what the market seeks -- if folks want to gamble and the state believes that this ought to be a legal business, then license the casinos and let them go at it. But I cannot see why any government -- or any people -- would want to base their revenue structure on gambling, both for social and fairness reasons and because any function that government ought to serve ought to be something that the people understand their responsibility to pay for. Shunting that responsibility onto people who can least afford it and whose purpose has nothing to do with those government functions is simply wrong.
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Bethesda, Md.: Marc, I know I'm not adding anything new here, but I work in downtown D.C. and every day see poorly-dressed people with numbers written on scraps of paper lining up to buy Powerball and lottery tickets. They have far less than a 50% change of getting back much of their money. And my elderly parents, who live in Leisure World, travel every month or so to play the slots, mostly in Dover but occasionally in Atlantic City. Wouldn't it really be better if Maryland got their money and they had a shorter drive?
Marc Fisher: Sure, if there's a consensus that slots palaces are a good and important business to have in the state, I see no problem with that -- after all, we already have plenty of gambling going on and it's silly to pretend that people aren't pumping their money into online gambling and the lottery and so on. But that doesn't mean that the state ought to depend on gambling money to pay for basic functions such as schools.
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VA Senate Debate: Who 'Won'?: We know you're no fan of Gov. Gilmore and would have a hard time ever declaring him the "winner" of a debate with Mark Warner, so perhaps the best way to restate the question is: Did Gilmore do better than expected?
I expect my vote for Gilmore in November won't keep him from getting trounced, but it would be nice to know he put up a spirited fight in the debates.
Marc Fisher: The debate is just finishing now with Jim Gilmore slamming Barack Obama as he has throughout the hour, using virtually every question as a way to try to connect Mark Warner with Obama. In his closing statement just now, Gilmore mentioned Obama three times. Warner responded several times during the hour saying that he supports Obama but that whoever becomes president will have to take on tough issues in a much more rigorous and bipartisan fashion than we've been used to.
Mostly, the debate consisted of Gilmore slamming Warner as a tax-raising liar who is connected to Obama, and Warner arguing that this is a time for bipartisanship and touting his record as governor over Gilmore's. Not a lot of surprises.
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Arlington, Va.: When will the D.C. council and mayor demonstrate that they are ready for real home rule and having two senators and a congress person who can vote? They are the most inept bunch of screw-ups and the only thing close in the VA Republican party! Congress needs to amend the bill passed by Congress and allow us Virginians to carry concealed in D.C. without a permit or a VA permit!
Marc Fisher: Certainly the D.C. Council and Mayor Fenty brought this congressional interference upon themselves with their initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling throwing out the D.C. gun ban. That first move, a poke in the eye of the court, outraged gun advocates across the country.
But under the threat of congressional meddling, the mayor and council backed off and this week passed legislation that is much more in keeping with the spirit of the Supreme Court ruling. For Congress to go ahead now and bash the District has nothing to do with life on the streets of Washington, but is solely a reflection of the continuing battle over gun policy at the national level, and especially in this fall's congressional campaigns around the nation.
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NW, D.C.: I was not surprised to see Ms. Walters inherited the tax scheme on the job, and took it to another level. Is D.C. preparing to investigate the history of stealing dating back to the early 80s if not 70s? Secondly, for the life of me, how does Gandhi survive this when his level of accountability goes from Director of the Office to City CFO? He's a shrewd dude, but his oversight was grossly lax while D.C. enjoyed strong revenues!
I worked for the DC-OCFO. Employees fear him because he can and will fire quickly. He's proven himself in that regard. However, management- and oversight-wise, as long as you don't bring him an issue you are fine. If you cannot tell, D.C. government manages by crisis. Long-term plans and standards are not common. I can see the tax office never had a deficit issue, nor a horrible audit, so they stayed under the radar. However, Gandhi never ran a tight ship with sharp oversight in any agency.
Marc Fisher: Today's story about the decision not to prosecute Diane Gustus, the D.C. worker who was alleged to have prepared the documents supporting the phony checks in the scam, certainly sends the message that the prosecutors are not too eager to turn over every rock and get to everyone responsible. Obviously, every account we've heard of this scam indicates that a great many people in the office were involved. Nothing less than a total house cleaning could send a message that government is serious about doing this right.
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McLean, Va.: Why haven't the names of the PG Sheriff's SWAT Team been released? Doesn't the public have a right to know the names of the vigilante police who violated the civil rights of Calvo and his wife?
Marc Fisher: Mayor Calvo has requested that the county release a whole bunch of data about how and when the SWAT teams are used and what results they achieve, and certainly he wants all the details about his own case to be released.
But not only is the county sheriff refusing to release the report that cleared his officers of any wrongdoing, neither Calvo nor even a member of the county council has been able to get the stats on the SWAT team's use. I don't see that info coming out without a court order.
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Alexandria, Va.: So I was at the Newington Costco last night, buying some frozen berries (since fresh ones are getting harder to find in the stores now) and I noticed the package I pulled from the freezer contained raspberries, blueberries, and marionberries! My question is, is this a special blend Costco's making for us here in the D.C. Metro area? Our MFL (Mayor for Life) must be so pleased...
Marc Fisher: Those are berries from the Pacific Northwest -- quite good, actually. And there's a congressman from Arkansas named Marion Berry, while we're at it.
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Alexandria, Va.: Dan Morse's story was such a tragic yet sweet story. It sounds like Wolmans and the Rubins had a great zest for life and relationships. I worry a little about the surviving spouses, as losing your partner of 65 years is tough enough, even without compounding the pain by the loss of a good friend's spouse. That said, and without knowing the official cause of the accident, I wish they would have considered their age and driving capabilities before getting behind the wheel. I understand it's a lot of independence to surrender, but as my own grandfather proved to the drivers of the roads in California, they stop realizing that others are making corrections on their behalf to avoid an accident. And at some point, it's safer to just not be on the road at all.
washingtonpost.com: A Final Dinner for Four Friends (Washington Post, September 18, 2008)
Marc Fisher: A lovely story, on today's front page if you haven't seen it.
The only solution to that problem is to require road tests for all drivers who hit a certain age, say, 75 and up. Old folks are extremely loathe to give up their driving, even when they know their reflexes or vision are going fast. Lack of mobility leads to a dramatically diminished life. But that's why authorities need to step in to make those decisions for those who are unwilling or unable to make them for themselves.
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Blaming the victim: Marc, your paper has had several articles about the woman abducted from Springfield Mall. Most of the blogger comments were what you would expect -- shock, outrage, sympathy for the husband. But a few actually said the woman should have been more alert to her surroundings. She was shopping in broad daylight. I don't think the possibility of being kidnapped was on her list for that day. I thought she was remarkably quick-thinking. She phoned her husband and called him by the WRONG name. A sympathetic person who thought something was wrong was asked by her to check her tag number. I read somewhere not in your paper, I believe, that the mother of one of the scum claimed both men were mentally ill. I can hear the defense right now from the survivor - I was forced by the other guy, I tried to stop it, I tried to protect the woman, I was an unwilling accomplice, etc. But he is alive and an innocent woman is dead.
Marc Fisher: The store surveillance video of the kidnappers and the woman is just chilling. You could second guess her and wonder why she didn't make her plight known to the store clerks, but on the other hand, how could she be sure that the clerks would really help her, or that she wouldn't then be killed by the captors?
It does seem that she tried to reach out for help as subtly as she could. I would hope that any jury would have zero tolerance for the nonsensical claims of mental illness that defense lawyers unethically concoct so often in such cases.
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Manassas, Va.:"Warner arguing that this is a time for bipartisanship"
A Democrat's definition of bipartisanship: OK, you did what you needed to get elected. Now vote for what we want.
Marc Fisher: Yes, Gilmore hit back on that bit of rhetoric again and again, repeating the line that "Bipartisanship is no substitute for honesty" and then slamming Warner for having broken his promise not to raise taxes. It's a nice comeback on Gilmore's part, but I wonder if it will have any impact as a centerpiece of his campaign -- after all, Warner has remained Virginia's most popular politician despite -- and perhaps because of -- the way he managed to raise taxes and fix some of the state's deep structural financial problems.
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McLean, Va.: Is Jim Gilmore purposely "taking one for the team," or does he seriously believe that he has a chance to beat Mark Warner? My take is that on November 4, Virginia voters will kick Jim Gilmore's butt so hard that the RNC will have to buy Gilmore a new place to sit.
Marc Fisher: Well, Gilmore is hardly out to lose this race, and he's fighting as hard as he can given far more limited financial resources and a huge gap in the polls. Gilmore, bizarrely enough, is trying to latch onto John McCain's coattails, if there will be any -- I say bizarre because Gilmore has long been highly critical of McCain.
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Cleveland Park, Washington, D.C.: You wrote: "How do you feel about your congressman's vote on the D.C. gun bill yesterday?"
What congressman?
Marc Fisher: Exactly.
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Raw Fisher Radio: I'm curious. Is anyone else having problems with the weekly podcast? The last two weeks nothing from RFR has downloaded into my iTunes. I can hear the current version online (on Swat teams) though. I'm just curious if it's just me.
washingtonpost.com: I'll pass the concern along to the tech folks here - Michele (today's producer)
Marc Fisher: Thanks for letting us know -- the feed on washingtonpost.com seems to work just fine, but we should make sure the one on iTunes is zipping along nicely as well.
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Clifton, Va.: No, Marc. The solution is road tests for everyone every 3 years to renew your license. A real road test to also include your ability to recover from skids and spins on wet skidpad and to apply maximum braking even with ABS.
Marc Fisher: Sure, that's a lovely idea, but it's about as likely to happen as a minimum driving age of 20, which would also dramatically improve road safety. So, to concentrate on fixes that might actually have a chance of happening, I focused instead on the idea of road tests for the elderly.
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Lost chat: Marc, I have a regular schedule of chats that I read (yes, yours included). What happens when one disappears with no warning? The college football chat with Prisbell and Yanda is MIA!
Did the guys get tired of doing the chat or is it just economics of having too many discussions?
washingtonpost.com: Thanks for asking -- and for participating in Live Discussions! The college football chat will return before and/or after big games this season. We've moved to that model with that particular discussion, rather than having it run as a regular discussion every week. -- Michele (Live Online Editor and Marc's producer for today.)
Marc Fisher: Thanks for having Potomac Confidential on your list -- and thanks to Michele for the explanation. The roster of chats changes fairly regularly, both to reflect changing stories and interests and to try out new ideas. We have several different kinds of chats here on the site -- some focused around individual columnists or writers, such as this here thing, some based on one narrow area of coverage or reader interest, and some that are temporary topics, based on something happening in our world....
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Washington, D.C.: The Franklin School and the Gales School (near Union Station, two blocks from the U.S. Capitol) are both examples of us preferring political symbolism over actually helping the homeless. Both of these properties are historic properties not originally built as homeless shelters. Both sit on some of the most expensive land in the world. Using these as homeless shelters is a stunning waste of money and resources. Instead they should both be sold to the highest bidder, or developed by the city and rented out. The city would get tens of millions of dollars for each of these properties, either in sale or rental. The proceeds from this could fund ten times as many shelters, on less expensive land (much of which D.C. already owns in other parts of the city) complete with every sort of substance abuse rehab and job training program known to man. Why don't we do this? We prefer political symbolism -- the use of grand structures in highly visible high dollar locations -- over actually using those resources to generate revenue to treat the problems of homelessness.
Marc Fisher: You're absolutely right and the good news is that the mayor and much of the city government now realize how foolish and expensive it is to relegate the homeless to those vast, 19th century kind of warehouses. The far better solution for all of society is to get people into real housing with all the support they need -- counseling, drug treatment, medical care, job training--and get them into work as fast as possible. Several big cities have been moving in this direction with good results and the District is heading that way.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Why is that in reporting about local crime stories, such as the Springfield abduction, the Post refuses to provides descriptions of the criminals, but the paper is willing to have large Style section pieces on crimes committed against a minority (in areas outside this region), such as the recent article on an assault on an immigrant in Pennsylvania?
Marc Fisher: I watched the surveillance video of the Springfield abductors right here on the Post web site, which leaves me with a very strong description of those thugs. What more could you possibly want? It is true that in some crime stories, we don't use physical descriptions if those descriptions are so sketchy and broad as to be useless. A good description, with lots of detail, is one that we would and do indeed publish. This complaint, which I hear often from readers, usually focuses on race -- the idea being that editors are overly shy about mentioning the race of a suspect for fear of offending some notion of political correctness. But really it's more a question of fairness and usefulness: No one wants to read a description that is frustratingly broad. If the only function of the description is to tell readers the race of the suspect, then it doesn't belong in the paper. If the purpose is to provide a description that you can actually use to be on the lookout for the bad guy, then the whole thing goes in, race and all.
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D.C.: I hate to be morbid but as for the poor women who was killed in the kidnapping, most defense experts will tell you NEVER EVER get taken to the "second place" -- i.e. never ever get in the car. It's better to be killed in parking garage where at least your family may find out what happened to you than left for dead somewhere and just "missing" for decades. I know its harsh but this is what I hear from all self-defense class teachers.
Marc Fisher: That may be what they teach, but can you imagine really doing that in the real world? Bad guy with gun tells you to get in the car, and you're prepared to say, "No, my good sir, I would rather die here in the parking lot than accompany you on your journey of illicit activities?"
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Rockville, Md.: I so wish the person who hugged the abducted woman had just taken her away from them. But that is hindsight. It will be a while before I get over this one.
Marc Fisher: I wonder -- what would I have done had I seen that woman come into a convenience store where I was shopping? Would I assume that an older white woman accompanied by two young black guys was somehow not there of her own volition? Would I be able to read fear or pleading on her face? Even if I could, what, beyond calling the cops, would have been the right or useful thing to do? The one person I'd point to who had the best opportunity to be useful would be the shop clerk, who might have been able to at least hit a silent alarm and then try to delay the abductors with a very slow transaction at the counter.
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Gaithersburg Poker Proponent Again: Sorry, my point was that we aren't being given that option. Slots, even with 87% payback (Nevada requires higher and most casinos advertise 90% or higher), aren't really going to pay for education... it's a prop for the horse industry.
We do want real casinos. No the state shouldn't base it's budget on that and that alone. But quit losing money to neighboring states while shilling for a failing industry.
I've lived in Tucson (tribal casinos), Vegas, and am from Detroit (which has both corporate and tribal casinos). I enjoy low dollar poker and table games create more jobs than slot parlors. Dealers in Vegas make a pretty decent living. But we're not being given that option. The way the proposal is worded is slots or nothing, and I'll vote nothing until we're given that option.
Marc Fisher: I'd say that I can't foresee Maryland accepting full-blown gambling casinos, but now I'm not so certain. If slots prove to be as popular as the polls now indicate, I would not rule out the idea that the next set of politicians will say that the only way to maintain the state's schools is to go to full casinos, and I can certainly see voters choosing almost any alternative to paying for the services they actually use.
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Alexandria:"...but knowing that 87% of the proceeds goes back to the players was the deciding factor. That's a much higher percentage than any other type of gambling with which I'm familiar"
There are so many things wrong with this statement I don't know where to start, but I'll try. 87% of the "proceeds" do not go back to the players. 87% of the money put in the machine does, but then that money just goes back in the machine the next time you pull the handle (or push the button as in most slots these days). And 87% is NOT a good return (unless you're used to playing the ponies). Most table games have a much smaller house edge.
For what it's worth, I go to casinos all the time and know exactly what I'm getting into. I consider it entertainment expense.
Marc Fisher: Right -- I don't see anything immoral about gambling. What's immoral is the state teaching the people to expect to get services paid for by those who can least afford it, the people who tend to do a disproportionate amount of the gambling at slots casinos.
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Gas Station Closures, Va.: What's with the epidemic of gas station closures in Northern Virginia? In my commute from Fairfax to Arlington, no fewer than three of the gas stations I've used in the past are now all dug up and sealed off. I can't tell if they're going out of business, or if this is something that all gas stations go through from time to time. Perhaps they're replacing their tanks.
Marc Fisher: Might be just that, but in fact, I've been hearing from an increasing number of gas station owners or franchisees who are getting out of the business because -- though it may seem impossible in an era of $4 gas -- their profits are severely down as the oil companies squeeze them to the max.
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Last week, several posters noted that the questions you took contained often irrational language in their attacks against Palin but conservative responses were much tamer, which you blithely dismissed during the chat. By any chance did you go back over and look over the transcript or did you just ignore the charges?
Marc Fisher: I did take a look and I didn't see any such pattern. There was indeed a pattern in that I had more posts last week that were anti-Palin than pro-Palin, but not by a whole lot. My sense is that as with many such polarizing figures, those on both extremes tend to be very, um, colorful in their defense of their positions, but that most readers, just like most voters, are firmly in the middle and are mainly turned off by the extreme language and anger on both ends.
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Washington, DC: My personal Yay goes to Carol Schwartz for launching a write-in campaign. I seem to recall your appreciating her service to DC.
Marc Fisher: Well, I can't Yay or Nay Schwartz's turnabout this week. She had said in no uncertain terms that she would accept the results of the primary and wouldn't run as a write-in candidate. There was honor and integrity in that position, and I admired that. Now, she's back in the race and while I did indeed write appreciatively of her record and value to the D.C. government and to voters, I am troubled by the idea that she's the only one who can save the District. On the other hand, I don't see much to admire in her opponents in that November Council race....
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Coffee for $1: There's a new coffeehouse on Lee Highway in Merrifield, Va.. I think its name is "Coffeehouse," but the signs that face oncoming traffic simply say "COFFEE NOW $1." I pulled in yesterday, and sure enough, the place is newly opened and is offering a cup of Caribou Coffee for $1. It's not a Caribou franchisee, but is licensed to carry Caribou coffees.
I asked if they were going to be raising their prices soon, and a woman there said no, small coffee remain $1. It's a 12 oz. cup, I think. Just right for the 30-minute commute that awaits me after I pass the new coffee shop. I haven't seen a $1 cup of good coffee anywhere for years. And no, I don't work at this place; as a grateful consumer, I just wanted to plug them.
Marc Fisher: Hard to imagine it's not just an opening promotion. Hard to see how they can maintain that given commodity prices and the state of the economy.
And at some point, won't it become evident to all that we're kind of at the moment when this society needs to start paying for what it consumes and not pretending that everything can be cheap or free?
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Rockville, Md.:"you're prepared to say, "No, my good sir,.."
You bet I am. But not to say "good sir..."
Make them work. Run like heck.
Marc Fisher: Good for you -- I admire the courage, but I'm not sure I see a good end game.
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That may be what they teach, but can you imagine really doing that in the real world?: Actually, yes. I would have started screaming as soon as I went into the convenience store. That at least gives you a chance of survival, given that the thugs may get scared and run off. All of this is second guessing though; it is really horrifying what happened to this poor lady. There better be a special place in hell for defense attorneys who actively think up ways to get thugs off. I hope they rot in jail.
Marc Fisher: So do I, but my sense from my own experiences with being held up is that you really can't predict what you would do in the moment. I was once held up at gunpoint with three other friends and we would all have predicted that we'd just give the guy the money he asked for -- yet we walked away from the pointed gun, walked right into the middle of the street and started making loud noises as we hurried away. We had each individually sensed a certain weakness in his voice and his body language and we felt like we could get away. I would never had predicted that reaction on my own part, and I would never recommend it to anyone, but in the moment, you do read the other person, even if he is a thug.
So I am reluctant to second guess the woman in this case; my bet is that she did as much as she thought she could get away with and still survive.
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Bethesda, Md.: Again, not intending to blame the victim (and I'm not the same chatter as the previous post) -- and I admire her creativity in trying to signal others -- but yeah, I think I can imagine it -- because I'm pretty sure I would also be imagining some of the really awful things that guy might do to me (a woman, by the way) in the car, or elsewhere, whether or not I ended up dead by the end of it. Which is another reason that self-defense experts say not to get in the car.
Most of these guys will not, in fact, shoot you. And those who really would -- those that are violent and not just bluffing -- are also more likely to do other horrendous things to you if you do go along, right?
Marc Fisher: Right, in most cases, you're probably safe to run away or call out for help. But you really do have to rely on your street smarts and your sense of human behavior. And my worry is that so many kids now grow up without developing that street sense.
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Rockville, Md.:"I'm not sure I see a good end game."
To be honest, neither do I. But I got to try.
Marc Fisher: Right, but each of us will likely try in a somewhat different way.
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D.C.: I wrote the post about not getting into the car and I am totally prepared to NOT get in the car gun or no gun. I would be a heck of a lot more terrified about being driven to god knows where and left for dead than whatever is going to happen in a garage, in public, with surveillance cameras. DO ANTHING you can to avoid being taken somewhere else! Read the "Gift of Fear" by Gavin de Becker...
Marc Fisher: Great title.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Re: Suspect descriptions. The Washington Post covers a large region and it makes sense that it should only give a suspect description if it has enough detail to help us ID the bad guy. Sigh, this is why you guys at the Post are going of business.
I don't read the Post learn how to catch the bad guys; I want the Post to reinforce my opinions on our screwed up society. The Post should have an info box for every crime story telling me: race, immigration status, prettiness of victim (sexual crimes only), whether the person is from PG County, marital status and whether they finished high school or college. Marc, it's big ideas like this that will help you move up in the world of new media.
Marc Fisher: I've always wanted to write a column called Bad Advice -- you might not be surprised that I think I'd be pretty good at dishing out that stuff. Your post would be a nice entry in that column.
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Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.: Why do you hate DC United so much?
Marc Fisher: Because I stopped beating my wife and now have plenty of time for a good hate-o-rama.
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PG SWAT and the Calvos: Please don't let this story die.
I can think of nothing that has made me angrier in the last 10 years.
Marc Fisher: Thanks -- we're going to try to stay on it. There are lots of unanswered questions and there is a much bigger set of questions surrounding the militarization of the police and the impact that has on building trust and community policing.
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Fairfax, Va.: I am a DOD civilian employee and reside in the 11th Congressional District in Virginia. I am an independent who voted for Mark Warner and Tim Kaine but I also voted for John Warner, Tom Davis and Bush (twice).
The Virginia Republican party is worthless. Tom Davis was an asset to us Feds and would have made a better candidate than Gilmore. I am pro life and a fiscal conservative who believes in less government. I have big problems with Virginia Republican candidates who are chosen strictly on litmus issues. And yeah Cucinelli is my state senator. I will never vote for a candidate who home schools. I would have voted for Davis for Senator. Would have been a tough choice. And I would vote for Mark Warner for prez over either McCain or Obama. The Virginia Republican party needs to realize Virginia has changed. I am as good ole boy as my herding instructor but come on!
Marc Fisher: I think you are very much in the mainstream of northern Virginia voters and I talk to people who lay out their politics as you did quite often. And this fall, I am hearing those voters go every which way on the presidential race. If you're still out there, please let us know your presidential pick.
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Vienna, Va.: Is Warner's lead over Gilmore in NoVa such that Warner can forgo campaigning out here? I am sick of seeing an incredible Gilmore presence at every local event and nothing or very little from Warner. I will support Warner, but I can tell you it is a feeling akin to those who supported Hillary and feel dissed by Obama. It irrationally makes me almost want to vote the other way. And if Warner were more visible here in NoVa, it would help Obama, who by no means has it locked up here in Fairfax.
Marc Fisher: I think you will find that yes, Warner does tend to take northern Virginia for granted both because it's his home base and because he has traditionally done so well here, but given his large financial advantage in this race, you will definitely see a substantial Warner presence on TV this fall. I'm not sure that's the kind of presence you're looking for, but you will also see Warner out and about -- he's doing more and more retail appearances, but I do get the sense that his focus on personal appearances will be in other, more divided parts of the state.
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Great Falls, Va.: Gilmore was a poor Governor, leaving the state in a fiscal crisis. He also has no transportation plan, something northern Virginians desperately need. Characterizing the "bipartisanship" statements by Warner as rhetoric is fair, but how can Gilmore's harping about Obama, who is not running for Senate in Virginia as far as I know, be anything but rhetoric? My question is whether Gilmore is appealing to unspoken racism when he continually brings up Obama.
Marc Fisher: That's a fair question, and the way Gilmore slipped Obama's name into well more than half of his answers -- even when the presidential race had zero to do with the question -- certainly lends credence to that notion. Clearly, the Gilmore camp believes that Warner is so popular and so far ahead that their only chance is to try to link him to Obama. And Warner at the Democratic convention was careful to reach out to what he called "McCain-Warner" voters, of whom there will be many. But I found myself wondering the same thing -- was this a not so subtle racial appeal?
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NW, D.C.: Marc: Can we discuss some of these local budget issues? I live in PG and note my own county on top of Montgomery, and the states of MD and VA. I am not a conservative, but how is it these jurisdictions basically just approved their FY09 budgets a few months ago and are now scurrying around over potential deficits?
The revenue trends have been there for over a year. How did they just realize the potential shortfall 3-4 months after approving the upcoming budgets? It seems they failed to do a thorough job in their initial budget process. The mention of furloughs before department/program cuts just seems like lazy governance. I think if they scrub their budgets and looked at effective programs, and those with low return, not to mention non-essential contracts, they can find the 3% easily and not require an 80-hour furlough. And slots are not the solution!
Marc Fisher: Most of those budgets have been pretty well scrubbed in other recent financial crunches, but yes, of course there are always services that can be cut and staffs that can be trimmed. But while it's been obvious for some months that revenues would be lower, state and local budgets are drawn up quite a bit in advance and they've been based in recent years on extraordinary incomes from real estate taxes and fees, and no one could have predicted just how deeply those would fall, or how quickly energy prices would jack up the price of just about everything that government buys.
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D.C.: I agree with the earlier poster on the sale of the buildings for more funds for shelters and training, it is a good solution -- IF there is effort to make sure the facilities are spread evenly throughout the city. In other words, don't just stick the homeless in NE or Petworth, but also integrate them into mixed income housing west of the park. The NW NIMBYs may not like it, but it is unfair to expect one or two communities to absorb the entire population of the city's homeless.
Marc Fisher: Scatter-site housing for the homeless is not a terrible idea, except for two caveats: One, it doesn't make sense to buy very expensive housing for the homeless just to make the political point that all must share in housing them, and two, you do want the homeless to be near or have access to the mental health and other services they will need to get back into the work force and take care of their families.
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C and O canal: Have you seen the damage to the canal from Hanna yet? It's not just the towpath that was washed out -- the entire side of the canal collapsed into the Potomac.
Marc Fisher: Goodness, no, I haven't been down there, but thanks for the tip -- we'll take a look.
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Re: Gas station closures: Marc: I have a little knowledge to offer here. My understanding is that the profit margins on gasoline for gas stations and convenience stores is really small and they don't set the prices. They simply react to the price charged to them. They make their money getting us to do an oil change there or going inside and buying sodas and stuff. It's quite possible that if prices are going up and consumption is going down, they're having real problems.
Marc Fisher: Quite right -- I did a column a couple of years ago in which a Montgomery County station owner opened his books to me and showed how the big oil companies really break the backs of your neighborhood station owner. They literally make all of their profit from the convenience store operations, almost like movie theater owners relying almost entirely on the popcorn sales.
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Washington, D.C.: Marc, you miss the point on the way D.C. deals with the homeless, the two buildings will be sold at a song to friendly developers, those same developers will the severely mark up anything the city buys/rents to replace and service for the homeless will go down at higher costs. In other words the status quo.
Marc Fisher: Sorry, but the conspiracy theories just don't work on this one. Indeed, the city has no buyer or even plan for a buyer on the Franklin Shelter. But that gorgeous building ought to be sold or leased to someone who will make big money on it, and the city's cut of that money is the only way the District can ever be able to take care of its neediest citizens.
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"The college football chat with Prisbell and Yanda is MIA!": They're axeing the Dirda on Books chat soon too! Changing it to one of those discussion groups.
Watch your back, Fisher. Don't get on that elevator with Michele!
washingtonpost.com: Yes, Marc. I am one dangerous woman!
Marc Fisher: Sometime when we have more time, I'd love to hear your thoughts on these chats vs. the discussion group model that also appears here on the big web site. It's the back and forth with the host versus the discuss among yourselves model.
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D.C.: You don't "say" anything to a would-be assailant in most situations, you start screaming your head off and then see if you can jam a thumb into either their eye socket or wind pipe and a knee to the groin. You may just be too much trouble for an assailant in the middle of a parking lot in the middle of the day. I wonder if these two thugs in Springfield looked at this woman and thought she is older so maybe she won't be able to fight back?
Marc Fisher: I'm sure they picked her in good part because they thought she might be easier to handle than some other victim -- that's why we see so many home invaders picking the homes of the elderly.
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No, Good Sir: It is a good strategy, because in most cases that person is not prepared to shoot you while you are standing in a public place. That's why running away or standing your ground IS the best strategy. It is true this is what police or security/self-defense experts will tell you. Another tip I remember from when kids were small -- teach kids if they are in trouble to look for a grandma-type person to go to for help. Chances are they will not SEE a policeman if they are in a public place and are lost, need help, etc. The least chance of a threat is an older woman -- that's who they should ask for help.
Marc Fisher: Kind of sad that the assumption is that some random guy on the street wouldn't automatically help out.
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I've never been held up or kidnapped, but:...I've always figured that if such a thing happened to me, I'd pretend to faint and collapse to the floor, in as public a place as possible.
Marc Fisher: Screaming and generally behaving like a crazy person has always been my recommended strategy. I know I have ranted and raved my way out of at least two muggings over the years. Nobody, not even a criminal, wants to deal with a crazy person.
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Springfield, Va.: Not a question, but just a comment. I am amazed at the courage not only the woman who was kidnapped had, but also the person who went up to her at the store. I am not sure if I could have done that and that poor person must be plagued with guilty feelings as well, like not having done enough. What a horrible situation.
Marc Fisher: Yeah, I'd be cautious about slamming that person for not having done more. Only the folks who were there can know just what the crooks were saying with their body language.
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Bethesda, Md.: You're reluctant to second guess that poor woman but showed no such reluctance when you chastised that driver in the PG drag racing crash that he should have had the presence of mind to drive through thick tire smoke and swerve while driving over 50 miles an hour to dodge bodies. No telling how people might react in such situations, but I guess it depends on the situation.
Marc Fisher: A bit different, those situations are: The woman who has been abducted has more limited freedom of choice. The driver is of course limited by physical forces and his own reflexes, but otherwise has the ability to decide how to handle a frightening and disorienting situation.
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NO!: Scream, throw the car keys and your purse TO the attackers (their reflex is to catch) and run like hell, screaming FIRE! at the top of your lungs. I am not blaming the victim. I mourn her, and I didn't know her.
Marc Fisher: All of these good suggestions require a good deal of forethought and strong instincts and will.
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"make them work run like heck": Hard to do that when he's grabbed your arm and there is a sharp screwdriver pointed at your face. Permanent scar/worse or I lose my purse? Guess which one I chose?
Marc Fisher: Plus, I fall back on all the training I've heard over the years, especially from police, that says don't be a hero, just give them what they want.
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re: mental illness:"I would hope that any jury would have zero tolerance for the nonsensical claims of mental illness that defense lawyers unethically concoct so often in such cases."
Marc, please don't continue to spread that misinformation about how mental illness is "so often" used in cases. Yes, this is a wikipedia link, but it is cited. The defense is only used 1% of the time, not sure how that qualifies as "so often." And, the citation further points out that of the successful cases 90% of those people are actually mentally ill.
Mental illness is just not the get out jail free card a lot of people (apparently, yourself included) seem to think it is.
Marc Fisher: Sorry, but first of all, one percent is a lot. Second, I've sat in way too many courtrooms and watched mental illness being used as a defense and as a distraction when it was clearly not justified. Most juries can see through that nonsense, but unfortunately, many judges don't let the juries make that decision but instead take it upon themselves to accept bogus claims.
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Fairfax, Va.: Marc, what do you anticipate the FBI report on the Berwyn Hieghts SWAT team debacle will reveal? Will the Feds step up and call out the PG County force for its serious mishandling of the incident and investigation? Will the FBI decry the increasing use of SWAT teams? Or will they stick with and up for their own kind in the name of law enforcement brotherhood?
Marc Fisher: A lot of hope is riding on that FBI investigation. But Calvo and others are also pursuing change at the county level and there ought to be a state role in this as well -- changing the policies that govern when and how SWAT teams are used need not await the results of an FBI probe.
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Alexandria, Va.: Marc, just saw this article online:
Smile When You Pass That Traffic Light (Tech Insider, Sept. 17, 2008)
It says: "The top two suppliers of cameras used to capture motorists who run red lights and speed are now selling local governments on video technology that can be used to identify drivers and their passengers, reports Newspaper.com. Redflex and American Traffic Solutions are selling the enhanced systems as a way to help police track down Amber Alert cases and stolen cars."
This is appalling! Is there any way to find out if DC or MD are buying this junk? The public was assured when the cameras were put in that any red light/speed cameras would NOT be able to identify the people in the cars to protect our privacy.
Marc Fisher: Not exactly fair of me to unload this one at the very end of the show, but I just saw it. My quick view: I'm all for any such program that uses the cameras as the automated eyes of the police. There ought be no expectation of privacy when you are driving on the public thoroughfares, especially if and when you are violating the law and endangering others.
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Maryland: I disagree about Schwartz. Reminds me of Lieberman losing in his primary and then becoming a write-in and somehow winning. My belief is that you have one shot to win it and then walk away if you lose. Man or woman up.
Marc Fisher: Reasonable enough.
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Atlanta: re: write in campaign...
Do you have laws in D.C. like we have in Georgia? If you write in a candidate the vote gets thrown away, unless said candidate has declared, in a major periodical (and only one exists that the secretary of state's office will accept) AT LEAST 30 days prior to an election, their write in candidacy. Yes, this is all true. I'm currently running a write in campaign for an election as I have been tired of writing in names only to know the votes get thrown away (talk about disenfranchisement). And no, the local paper definitely DOES NOT CARE.
Marc Fisher: No, no such law here. And we actually have recent experience with a winning write-in candidate, Mayor Tony Williams, who managed to not get on the ballot in his reelection campaign and then won as a write-in.
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Bethesda, Md.: The problem I have with slots is that modern 'slot machines' aren't the classic one-armed bandits with a slot, they're carefully researched and engineered devices that draw people in and get the maximum amount of money. It only looks like gambling; it's really rats-in-a-maze gone commercial.
Marc Fisher: Still fun, though, no? I like em just for the noises and lights. We are at bottom simple creatures.
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Elderly Drivers: Marc, I agree elderly drivers should be restested frequently, but disagree that age 75 should be the threshold for status as elderly. Even though I no longer think of 40 as middle-aged, having recently hit that number myself, I believe that for purposes of driving that number needs to be moved south. I would say age 70 to start, with retesting every other year until age 80, when retesting would be annual. Part of the battle is just getting older folks to buy in to questioning their own abilities. And yes, the age for licensure should be increased to age 18. Maybe these changes would force communities to get more involved with providing transportation options.
Marc Fisher: Sure, start at 60 or even lower. But realistically, to get that kind of regulation through, you'd have to pick on the older crowd -- at least that's the way it went in Florida, where I worked when the state finally imposed such rules.
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Making it easier to vote absentee: Since moving, I have voted absentee every election. I claim to be out of town that day. Do I hate having to lie? Yes. It's not that I will be away at work for 12 hours or whatever it is, it's just that it's inconvenient to get to the polling place and probably stand in long lines either before or after work. By the time I count in my travel time with work, it's still less than 12 hours, but what if I'm stuck on metro? Voting is important to me, and I want to let my vote count. Why do I have to lie to get an absentee ballot?
Marc Fisher: Because part of your civic duty is actually going to the polls. It is a communal act and there is value in having to go out and see your neighbors and have them see you -- that builds the sense that by voting, we are acting on behalf of each other. I would actually make absentee voting much more difficult.
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Washington, D.C.: It wasn't in the Metro section, but the front page article by Post Staff Writer Dan Morse, "A Final Dinner for Four Friends" actually made me cry on the ride to work on the metro this morning. Beautifully written and incredibly sad. My heart goes out to the family members.
Marc Fisher: There are more like this one -- well-deserved kudos for a splendid story.
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Rockville, Md.: Since these SWAT teams do not have to check to see who lives in the house they will attack, I will send them a tip for a house on Pennsylvania Ave. 1600 I think. Perhaps the Secret Service can take care of them. At least it will be more of a fair fight.
Marc Fisher: Ouch.
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Springfield, Va.: Marc, the financial crisis I worry about is the Post. Your circulation is down by about 200K in the past decade or so, and I'm guessing ad revenues are also dropping. The New York Times is reporting that their ad revenues are off by about 10%. How much longer can the Post continue to lose customers? Millions read you on-line for free, but I doubt internet ads bring in much dough? What will it take to entice a new generation or readers to subscribe to the Post, while many older and loyal subscribers depart for news sources that fit their political desires?
Marc Fisher: The irony many newspapers face is that more people read us than ever before, thanks to Webly Webster, but we get little revenue from that to support our news operation. The business model hasn't caught up with the way people live today. It's a challenge that all old media -- and all new media too -- face, and no one has figured out answers that would support the nation's news-gathering infrastructure, which, as a result, is crumbling before our eyes.
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Marc Fisher: On that cheery note, that has to kick things in the head for today. Many thanks for coming along, and apologies to those I couldn't get to. Back here with you again next week, and of course on the blog every day and in the column again on Sunday, when we'll visit with a woman who has made the Hillary Clinton to Sarah Palin switch. She explains why.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: September 19, 2008
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Washingtonpost.com
September 18, 2008 Thursday 8:53 AM EST
The Drudge Retort
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 2349 words
HIGHLIGHT: On Tuesday, as Wall Street was reeling and the humongous AIG bailout was being assembled, Drudge ran a picture of Barbra Streisand.
On Tuesday, as Wall Street was reeling and the humongous AIG bailout was being assembled, Drudge ran a picture of Barbra Streisand.
By calling attention to a $28,000-a-head Obama fundraiser headlined by the singer in Beverly Hills, Drudge again used his Zeitgeist-spotting ability to make some campaign mischief. McCain mocked Obama for hanging out with the Hollywood crowd, and a new zinger was born.
Or was it?
Does Matt Drudge, an unabashed conservative, still have huge clout in shaping the media's coverage? Or is his influence overstated by those seeking a simple explanation for why MSM types do what they do?
Even worse, do cable producers and others use Drudge as an excuse to chase pointless, lipstick-type stories rather than grapple with such serious matters as the candidates' record on financial deregulation?
In 2000 or so, Drudge was king of the Net. His gossip column was unique and lots of people--especially journalists--read it. He still has tremendous traffic, but he also has plenty of competition from the likes of the Huffington Post, National Review Online, Daily Kos, Pajamas Media and on and on, not to mention such mainstream blogs as the Caucus (NYT), the Trail (WP), Swampland (Time), First Read (NBC) and many others. So he's no longer the only guy who can drive a story. Far from it.
Sometimes the Miami-based Drudge has got his finger on the pulse in a way that editors locked in story meetings do not. Other times, he pumps up something trivial for sheer entertainment value. And while he certainly leans right, he'll post items damaging to Republicans if they're juicy enough. In the end, it's all about the number of clicks.
I do think journalists lean on Drudge as a way of indulging their id. "We've got to do this," they tell each other, "because it's on Drudge." Or: "The cable networks are running with this because it's on Drudge, so it's really out there." Whatever happened to independent judgment? Or are we all just digital dittoheads now?
My colleague Chris Cillizza is delving into Drudge-ology:
"In the banner headline spot for most of the day was a picture of entertainer Barbra Streisand touting a Beverly Hills fundraiser for Barack Obama -- not exactly the sort of headline that the Illinois senator wants as chum for the cable channels 49 days before the election.
"Two other stories never merited attention from Drudge: a claim by a senior aide to John McCain that the Arizona senator had invented the BlackBerry and a statement by McCain surrogate Carly Fiorina that neither McCain nor Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would be equipped to serve as CEO of a major U.S. company . . .
"The emphasis on Obama's Hollywood ties and the omission of two negative McCain items is consistent with a broader trend over the past month (or so) that has seen the Arizona senator receive far better treatment from Drudge than he had during the primary season when, as several other acute political observers noted at the time, a number of tough stories for McCain regularly appeared on Drudge."
Maybe so. But TPM's Greg Sargent says the impact, as measured by cable hits, was the opposite:
"One of the stories ignored by Drudge actually got a whole lot more coverage on cable Tuesday than the one Drudge pushed all day in that supposedly hypnotic banner headline of his . . .
"As best as we can determine, the Streisand story was only the focus of episodes on Fox. Neither CNN nor MSNBC did episodes focused on it. On those two networks, it only came up in passing when brought up by GOP operatives (a no-brainer) or when subjected to ridicule by a few others.
"By contrast, all three networks devoted repeated stand-alone episodes to the Fiorina mess -- even though (Heaven forfend) Drudge ignored it! She appeared on all the nets again and again throughout the day.
"Look, far be it from me to question the notion that Drudge has influence over network producers. Of course he does. But if we're really going to devote so much time to flacking Drudge's influence, how about a real and nuanced discussion of it?
"For instance, does Drudge's influence over the cable nets really mean what it once did? The blogs pushed the heck out of the Fiorina story Tuesday. Cable news followed suit. Other media is influencing the cable narrative, too. Even more broadly, in the new media environment, the cable-bubble-narrative has competition and doesn't necessarily reign supreme at all times -- so is Drudge really as omnipotent as he once was?"
I have to side with TPM on this. Carly was the campaign flap of the day. Key reason: there was video of her less-than-brilliant remarks about how Palin (or McCain or Obama or Biden) couldn't run a major company (unlike Fiorina, who was fired by H-P). And in TV land, video rules.
The Palin bubble appears to have popped, based on this poll that gives Obama a 48-43 lead:
"Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. Mr. McCain is widely viewed as a 'typical Republican' who would continue or expand President Bush's policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
"Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support -- particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate -- but the latest poll indicates 'the Palin effect' was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest . . .
"More than 6 in 10 of those surveyed said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines."
Still, 50 percent now say the surge has helped the situation in Iraq. As for the excitement gap, "47 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters described themselves as enthused about the Republican party's presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the conventions." But more have confidence in Obama's ability to manage the economy.
Boy, what a grilling Palin got from Sean Hannity last night. The questions included: "Is Obama using what happened on Wall Street this week for political gain?" "Why does everyone benefit if the rich pay less" in taxes? And this zinger: "How did you take on your own party, specifically, and do you think you'll be able to do as well in Washington?" It's a wonder she didn't start sweating.
By the way, with McCain and Palin vowing to crack down on Wall Street corruption, aren't they also using the week's events for political gain?
After McCain backed away from his "fundamentals are sound" comment, a new argument is emerging on the right: He's the steady hand and Obama is the sky-is-falling guy. National Review's Jonah Goldberg makes the case:
"McCain shouldn't apologize for his initial statements. Indeed, McCain should stop being defensive about his political instincts in areas like this. Obama wants this to be about 'the economy.' McCain's instinct is to make this about leadership in a crisis. That's the right instinct. Obama sees nothing wrong with screaming that the sky is falling during a stock-market meltdown in order to score political points. McCain's impulse was to argue for calm at the moment when it is needed.
"McCain's response to Obama's attack shouldn't be to ratchet-up his own panic language to keep up with Obama, but to scold Obama for making the situation worse. The narrative of the moment should be McCain is the grown-up, Obama the hot head. There's a thin line between hope and fear, and Obama is crossing it."
Well. Pointing out that the economy is struggling, Wall Street is imploding and the nation's largest insurance company needed an $85-billion bailout is hardly being a fearmonger.
Remember the biggest political battle of 2005? HuffPoster John Neffinger does:
"When George W. Bush made it to term #2, he decided to try to privatize Social Security to reward his supporters on Wall Street with a new source of capital, customers, and fees. (Those would be the same people whose firms are now cratering under the weight of the bad debt they recklessly took on while Republican regulators looked the other way). But as it turned out, we Americans were not about to let our elected representatives turn over our social security taxes to Wall Street financiers to gamble with if it meant losing the guaranteed income that has allowed millions upon millions of American seniors to live out their sunset years with at least a basic measure of dignity.
"But while ordinary Americans spoke out, John McCain stood with Bush (hugged him awkwardly in public, even), against the American people. In fact, just six months ago, McCain again let slip his fondness for privatization.
"I have been scratching my head why this has not been talked about more, especially since Obama has been having trouble winning votes among seniors."
In fairness, Bush's market-investment idea was to be voluntary. But the president pushed it hard, and got so creamed he couldn't even get a committee vote on the Hill.
Where's Hillary? The New Republic's Michael Crowley follows the clues:
"Quoth the NYT's Patrick Healy via NY Mag:
"You know what I keep hearing privately from advisers to Hillary? They say, 'Why is it our job to blunt Palin's impact? Hillary is not on the ticket. Obama didn't choose her.' I don't think it's so much about resentment, it's an honest assessment that Hillary can only do so much in this regard. (And she doesn't want to be blamed if this vote doesn't go Obama's way.)
"This really doesn't strike me as a line that Hillary's people should be promoting. After all, she's the one who explained to her supporters in Denver that the campaign wasn't just about her, but about the big issues. If she really believes, as she proclaimed at the Pepsi Center, that 'nothing less than the fate of our nation and the future of our children hang in the balance,' then isn't that worth sticking out her neck for, even if it entails some personal political risk? Now wouldn't seem the time to make a passive-aggressive point because Obama didn't put her on the ticket."
At the Weekly Standard, Michael Weiss delights in the notion that the Dems are depressed:
"As bellwethers of liberal demoralization about this election go, I've not yet come across anything so clanging as the following comment from Hanna Rosin, responding to the phenomenon of Sarah Palin: 'One of my many depressed Obama-supporting friends suggests a tidy solution: Repeal the 19th Amendment.' . . .
"Yes, it's rather moonlight and self-pity in Democratic circles now that the prospect of an Obama administration may not be the certainty it seemed only weeks ago. 'There is a growing sense of doom among Democrats I have spoken to,' the Financial Times quotes a party fundraiser who formerly supported Hillary Clinton. 'People are going crazy, telling the campaign 'you've got to do something'.' . . .
"In his almost jaw-dropping inability to stand up to the revitalized McCain campaign (at least not without allowing it to dictate the rules of every engagement) Obama appears more and more like a hapless professor in a chaotic classroom, the kind who'd love to get to the lesson plan but is reduced to meekly asking everyone to 'settle down now.' "
My nominee for the most over-the-top anti-Palin piece (with a bonus for the most sexual references) is Salon's Cintra Wilson:
"Palin may have been a boost of political Viagra for the limp, bloodless GOP . . . But ideologically, she is their hardcore pornographic centerfold spread, revealing the ugliest underside of Republican ambitions . . .
"As a woman who does not believe what Palin believes, the thought of such an opportunistic anti-female in the White House -- in the Cheney chair, no less -- is akin to ideological brain rape. What this Republican blowup doll does with her own insides in accord with her own faith is her business. But, like the worst and most terrifying of religious extremists, she seems very comfortable with the idea of imposing her own views on everyone else . . .
"The choice of Palin represents what the Christian right is really saying to the women of America. The subtext: It's a Faustian bargain, girls. To elevate your sex to power and respectability, you must first give us the keys to your chastity belt."
Ahem.
How low is this? Hacking Palin's Yahoo account. Pathetic.
When a radio interviewer criticized her lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, Palin wrote: "Arghhh! He is so inconsistent and purposefully misleading! I am sorry Sean. He can keep trying, but you are the right one for the congressional position and he KNOWS it (that's the inconsistency!)"
I like a public official who can let loose with a good "arghhh!"
Speaking of Palin -- who, told yesterday that her back-of-the-plane press corps was getting lonely, apparently responded "Are you getting lonely? Gee, yeah, come on up then!"--the Troopergate story is back.
"Sarah Palin's latest explanation for why she fired Walt Monegan is that he had gone over her head in seeking federal money for an initiative to combat sexual assault crimes, before she had approved the program," says TPM's Zachary Roth.
"But it now appears that the program in question is one that most elected officials would be wary of admitting they hadn't strongly backed. According to Peggy Brown, who heads the Alaska Network on Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault, Monegan wanted to use the federal money to hire retired troopers and law enforcement officials, and assign them to investigate the most egregious cases of sexual assault -- including those against children.
"In other words, if Palin's new story is true, she fired Monegan for being too aggressive in going after child molesters."
Prompting the New Republic's Christopher Orr to observe:
"If the Obama Campaign Were the McCain Campaign . . . how long do you think it would be before they cut an ad claiming that, as Alaska governor, Sarah Palin wanted to go easy on child molesters?"
LOAD-DATE: September 20, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Web Publication
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The New York Times
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Abortion Issue Again Dividing Catholic Votes
BYLINE: By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1431 words
DATELINE: SCRANTON, Pa.
Until recently, Matthew Figured, a Sunday school teacher at the Holy Rosary Roman Catholic Church here, could not decide which candidate to vote for in the presidential election.
He had watched progressive Catholics work with the Democratic Party over the last four years to remind the faithful of the party's support for Catholic teaching on the Iraq war, immigration, health care and even reducing abortion rates.
But then his local bishop plunged into the fray, barring Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, from receiving communion in the area because of his support for abortion rights.
Finally, bishops around the country scolded another prominent Catholic Democrat, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, for publicly contradicting the church's teachings on abortion, some discouraging parishioners from voting for politicians who hold such views.
Now Mr. Figured thinks he will vote for the Republican candidate, Senator John McCain of Arizona. ''People should straighten out their religious beliefs before they start making political decisions,'' Mr. Figured, 22, said on his way into Sunday Mass.
A struggle within the church over how Catholic voters should think about abortion is once again flaring up just as political partisans prepare an all-out battle for the votes of Mass-going Catholics in swing-state towns like Scranton.
The theological dispute is playing out in diocesan newspapers and weekly homilies, while the campaigns scramble to set up phone banks of nuns and private meetings with influential bishops.
Progressive Catholics complain that by wading into the history of church opposition to abortion -- Mr. Biden brought up St. Thomas Aquinas, Ms. Pelosi discussed St. Augustine -- Democratic officials are starting a distracting debate with the church hierarchy.
''Getting into Augustine and Aquinas -- it is just not helpful,'' said Chris Korzen, executive director of Catholics United, a progressive Catholic group running television commercials that emphasize the church's social justice teachings. ''It would be wise for them to focus on how policies they are going to implement as leaders are going to move forward the church teachings they say they believe in.''
Catholic conservatives, in turn, until recently had worried about a resurgence of the progressive forces in the American church. Now they are reveling. ''The Democrats have actually given back some of the progress they had made,'' said Deal Hudson, a Catholic conservative who worked with President Bush's campaign and is now advising Mr. McCain's.
Once a reliable Democratic voting bloc, Catholics have emerged as a pivotal swing vote in recent presidential races. Evenly divided in a New York Times-CBS News poll over the summer, Catholics make up about a quarter of the national electorate and about a third in the pivotal battleground states of Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. ''Whoever wins the Catholic vote will generally win our state and, most of the time, the nation,'' said G. Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.
And Scranton, a city dominated by the kind of white working-class Catholics who have often defected from the Democrats in presidential elections, is a focus of special attention this year. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, who generally underperformed with Catholics in the Democratic primary, lost the surrounding Lackawanna County by a margin of three-to-one to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, who has family in the area. Now, the Obama campaign often highlights Mr. Biden's local roots -- he was baptized and spent his early years in Scranton -- in a bid for Pennsylvania voters.
Dozens of interviews with Catholics in Scranton underscored the political tumult in the parish pews. At Holy Rosary's packed morning Masses on Sunday in working-class North Scranton and the Pennsylvania Polka Festival downtown that afternoon, many Clinton supporters said they were planning to vote for Mr. Obama, some saying they sided with their labor unions instead of the church and others repeating liberal arguments about church doctrine broader than abortion.
''I think that one of the teachings of God is to take care of the less fortunate,'' said Susan Tighe, an insurance lawyer who identified herself as ''a folk Catholic, from the guitar-strumming social-justice side'' of the church.
But more said they now leaned toward Mr. McCain, citing both his experience and his opposition to abortion. Paul MacDonald, a retired social worker mingling over coffee after Mass at Holy Rosary, said he had voted for Mr. Kerry four years ago and Mrs. Clinton in the primary but now planned to vote for Mr. McCain because of ''the life issue.''
The choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as Mr. McCain's running mate had clinched it for him, Mr. MacDonald said. ''She is anti-abortion, anti-gay-marriage, anti-Big Oil, a lifetime member of the N.R.A., she hunts, she fishes -- she is the perfect woman!''
One parishioner ruled out voting for Mr. Obama explicitly because he is black. ''Are they going to make it the Black House?'' Ray McCormick asked, to embarrassed hushing from a half dozen others gathered around the rectory kitchen. (Five of the six, all lifelong Democrats who supported Mrs. Clinton in the primary, said they now lean toward Mr. McCain.)
Mr. Madonna, the political scientist, said of the Catholic vote in white, working-class Scranton, ''This is a tough area for Obama and some of it is race.''
Both campaigns have dispatched teams of operatives and high-profile allies to help fire up like-minded Pennsylvania Catholics. The McCain campaign also disclosed last month that the senator was meeting privately with Cardinal Justin Rigali of Philadelphia. He met with Archbishop Charles J. Chaput of Denver shortly before the Democratic convention. Both were outspoken critics of Ms. Pelosi and Mr. Biden.
Former Gov. Frank Keating of Oklahoma, a director of Catholic outreach for the McCain campaign, said the meetings Mr. McCain has held with bishops around the country were ''strictly ceremonial.'' But the campaign welcomed the bishops' comments about the Democrats and abortion, Mr. Keating said, as ''statements of affectionate support'' for Mr. McCain.
Both sides say that Mr. Obama has a broader grass-roots turnout operation than Mr. McCain. In Pennsylvania, the campaign has trained organizers to talk about Catholic doctrine on abortion and other issues, held about two dozen ''brunch for Barack'' events after Sunday Mass and organized what the campaign calls ''nun banks'' to call lists of Catholic voters.
Catholic Democrats outside the campaign have also worked hard to avoid repeating the experience of 2004, when a small group of outspoken bishops dominated news coverage of the church with criticism of Democratic Senator John Kerry focused on the single issue of abortion.
Many parishes distributed a voter guide, produced by an outside conservative Catholic group called Catholic Answers, which identified five ''nonnegotiable'' issues for faithful voters: abortion, embryonic stem-cell research, human cloning, euthanasia and same-sex marriage.
After the 2004 election, progressive Catholics started to organize and appeared to win some victories. In 2006, the bishops' conference all but banned outside voter guides from parishes. And last fall, the bishops revised their official statement on voting priorities to explicitly allow Catholics to vote for a candidate who supports abortion rights if they do so for other reasons. And it also allowed for differences of opinion about how to apply church principles. The statement appeared to leave room for Democrats to argue that social programs were an effective way to reduce abortion rates, an idea the party recently incorporated into its platform.
Their revisions set the stage for a clash of voter guides. Catholic Answers is again promoting its ''nonnegotiables'' voter guide; a new group, Catholics in Alliance for Common Good, has produced a chart comparing the candidates' views on the war, taxes, the environment and other issues as well as abortion.
The same debate is already playing out almost every day in the letters section of Scranton's newspaper, said Jean Harris, a political scientist at the Jesuit-run University of Scranton. ''It is a running debate between Catholics saying 'abortion is the only issue' and others saying 'you have to look at the whole teaching of the church,' '' she said.
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many were still undecided.
Sandy Evans, left, with Paul MacDonald, who said he plans to vote for Senator John McCain because of ''the life issue.''(PHOTOGRAPHS BY JANE THERESE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(pg. A20)
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The New York Times
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
As Long-Term Answer, Some Seek Agency to Buy Bad Debt
BYLINE: By STEPHEN LABATON
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1160 words
WASHINGTON -- As the Bush administration has lurched from pillar to post in the financial crisis, some lawmakers and experts were considering a longer-term legislative solution that would create a new agency to dispose of the mortgage-related assets at the core of Wall Street's woes.
Proponents of a more systematic government role to help relieve financial institutions of their toxic securities range from Lawrence H. Summers, the former Treasury secretary under President Clinton, to former Federal Reserve chairmen Paul A. Volcker and Alan Greenspan.
In Congress, the idea that is gaining traction centers on the creation of a new agency that would buy troubled assets from hobbled companies. The idea was floated on Tuesday by Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, who heads the House Financial Services Committee. Among those signaling that it merited serious consideration were Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi.
With seven weeks until the presidential elections, no one expects Congress or the White House to move quickly to create a new federal agency that puts taxpayers at risk for hundreds of billions of dollars in bad assets. Steny H. Hoyer, the House majority leader, said there was no time to consider any new proposals in the two weeks before Congress adjourns.
But in its ad hoc approach to the crisis, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have, in effect, already embarked on a course similar to the proposals in Congress.
In the case of Bear Stearns, the Fed took $29 billion of the investment bank's mortgage-related assets as collateral for a Fed loan to JPMorgan Chase, which then agreed to acquire Bear Stearns.
In the case of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Treasury Department placed the companies in a conservatorship and explicitly backed the $5.3 trillion of mortgages they own or guarantee.
Treasury also agreed to buy an unspecified amount of Fannie's and Freddie's mortgage-backed securities on the open market, starting with a $5 billion purchase this month. Those securities are to be managed and ultimately sold for the government by an investment house on Wall Street.
But federal officials remain concerned about the plight of other institutions, including Washington Mutual, the nation's largest savings association. Experts estimate that a government bailout of Washington Mutual could cut in half the size of the federal deposit insurance fund, which protects bank depositors at thousands of banks and savings and loan institutions.
Mr. Frank was among the House and Senate leaders who were hastily called to a meeting Tuesday with the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. to hear about the Fed's latest rescue plan, this time of the American International Group.
Mr. Frank said that one of the issues discussed in the meeting was a potential need for broader, longer-term federal action in the marketplace.
''We have had a series of ad hoc interventions; this is one more ad hoc intervention,'' he said. ''I do think, because you can't be sure this is the last one, the question of a broader more systemic action in which the government tries to help resolve these things is very important.''
In concept, the proposal would resemble the Resolution Trust Corporation, which disposed of bad assets held by hundreds of crippled savings institutions. Created in 1989, Resolution Trust closed or reorganized 747 institutions holding assets of nearly $400 billion. It did so by seizing the assets of troubled savings and loans and then reselling them to bargain-seeking investors.
By 1995, the S.& L. crisis abated and the agency was folded into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which Congress created during the Great Depression to regulate banks and protect the accounts of customers when they fail.
But the parallels to Resolution Trust are inexact. The federal government, unlike now, had no choice but to acquire the assets from savings associations because they were backed by federal deposit insurance. The mortgages now at the heart of Wall Street's woes are not backed by federally insured deposits.
Moreover, the mission of the corporation was to dispose of the assets as quickly as possible for maximum value. Its goal was to reduce taxpayer exposure.
In the current crisis, the goal is more debatable. Should the government be helping homeowners, housing or financial markets, or large companies in trouble? Moreover, policy makers already have been seeking ways to reduce the impact of hard-to-sell assets on the books of companies by encouraging healthier institutions to acquire troubled ones.
The issue is whether Congress, after the election, should create a more formal and accountable mechanism, such as a federal agency, that would provide a relief valve for the troubled assets now causing havoc on Wall Street.
''The question is, and it's just a question, is, 'Are we at the point where the private market has made so many bad decisions and is so depressed that it can't get out from under?' '' said Mr. Frank, who is planning to hold a hearing next week to explore whether Congress should create an agency to help the markets dispose of hard-to-sell assets.
''The question we have to address is, 'Is it the case that market psychology has so depressed assets that no entity has capacity to buy and hold these assets except for the government?' ''
Mr. Frank said it would be more appropriate for a new agency, rather than the central bank, to be relieving the markets of the troubled assets.
''It is not appropriate for the Federal Reserve either in a financial sense or in a democratic sense to take on this role,'' Mr. Frank said in an interview.
But Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, the chairman of the Senate banking committee, said at a news conference announcing hearings later this week on the crisis that he wondered whether such an agency was necessary if Treasury and the Fed were already performing such a function and had the authority to continue to do it.
''I'm not opposed to it,'' he said of Mr. Frank's proposal. ''I'm anxious to hear what the administration would have to say about this.''
Administration officials said they had no plans to make such a proposal, and that they would leave it to the next administration.
Mr. Frank emphasized that any legislation creating a new agency would have to be accompanied by ''tough new regulations'' to discourage companies from making more risky investments. He acknowledged that the decision about such an agency would be in the hands of the next Congress and the next president.
In recent days, aides to the presidential campaigns of John McCain and Barack Obama have said it would be premature to consider creating a new agency. But after the election, the political imperatives could significantly change, particularly if the housing markets remain depressed and Wall Street continues to choke on the billions of dollars in mortgage-backed assets.
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and Representative Barney Frank.(PHOTOGRAPH BY BLOOMBERG NEWS)
(PHOTOGRAPH BY AP PHOTO/THE CANADIAN PRESS)(pg. A22)
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USA TODAY
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
FINAL EDITION
Candidates' comments center on economics;
Obama, McCain try to reassure voters on finances
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 8A
LENGTH: 421 words
WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama outlined rules for a "21st-century regulatory system" Tuesday, and John McCain proposed a commission to examine the causes of failed banks and over-speculation in the financial markets.
In a week in which investment bank Lehman Bros. declared bankruptcy, brokerage firm Merrill Lynch was merged into Bank of America and insurance giant American International Group was bailed out by a federal loan, the presidential candidates refocused their campaigns on the economy.
They also released new ads: Obama hammered McCain for saying Monday that the fundamentals of the economy remain strong, and McCain promised "new rules for fairness and honesty" for failing institutions.
McCain and Obama tried to reassure voters worried about record home foreclosures and government assistance for Wall Street.
Presidents "don't set interest rates and can't stop people from making bad investment decisions," said non-partisan financial analyst Stan Collender of Qorvis Communications. But there are ways they can influence markets, from "jawboning to appointing the Treasury secretary to proposing legislation."
Collender said presidents must rely on "the power to persuade" and ease voters' fears about their savings and investments. "Ultimately, any economy is built on confidence," he said.
McCain vowed at an Ohio rally to crack down on "the kind of wild speculation that can put our markets at risk." Appearing earlier on NBC, he proposed a special panel "to figure out what went wrong and how to fix it."
"This foundation of our economy, the American worker, is strong, but it has been put at risk by the greed and mismanagement of Wall Street and Washington," McCain said later in Florida.
Obama told a Colorado audience that McCain punted by proposing a commission to study the problem. "This isn't 9/11," he said, referring to the bipartisan panel that reviewed the 2001 terrorist attacks.
McCain "has spent decades in Washington supporting financial institutions instead of their customers," Obama said.
He proposed tougher oversight on lenders that receive federal funds and the identification of "systemic risks."
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said McCain's comment about strong economic fundamentals was a "huge mistake." Some voters "are going to wonder, 'What planet are you on?'"
GOP pollster Ed Goeas, who works for McCain, said McCain has long campaigned against corporate malfeasance. "You're going to see him make the case that those people should be held accountable," he said.
*Wall Street's woes, 1B
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The Washington Post
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
Pigskin Weather Gives NBC the Ratings Edge
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C07
LENGTH: 1193 words
Sunday's Pittsburgh Steelers-vs.-Cleveland Browns square-off, and three servings of "America's Got Talent," pushed NBC to the top of the ratings heap -- the beleaguered network's sixth consecutive weekly ratings win.
Here's a look at the week's touchdowns and fumbles:
WINNERS
Football, football and football. On Monday, ESPN's "Monday Night Football" coverage of the Dallas Cowboys' 41-37 home victory over the Philadelphia Eagles clocked 18.6 million viewers -- the biggest audience in the history of ad-supported cable TV. One night earlier, NBC's Pittsburgh-at-Cleveland football game copped 17.8 million viewers to become last week's No. 1-ranked broadcast and put NBC on top for the sixth week straight. And one night before that, ABC's Saturday college football game snagged that franchise's biggest Saturday college football audience in nearly two years: 12 million fans.
Plus, last week on Monday, ESPN's first game of the prime-time night, featuring Aaron Rodgers's first regular-season game as the Green Bay Packers' starting quarterback, copped 12.5 million viewers -- which, for one week, was cable's biggest audience of '08 to date and beat everything on broadcast TV that night, including the season debut of Fox's "The Sarah Connor Chronicles."
"Saturday Night Live"/Sarah Palin. Tina Fey's dead-on portrayal of Palin, along with an appearance by Olympic record-setter Michael Phelps, combined to deliver the biggest audience to NBC's late-night show since its first original episode after the 9/11 attacks. Early stats indicate the season debut was up 64 percent (in the country's top TV markets) vs. last year's season starter, which would put its audience around 10 million viewers. Final stats are due later this week.
ABC evening news/Sarah Palin. Charlie Gibson struck ratings gold with Palin's first sit-down since becoming the GOP veep hopeful, averaging nearly 10 million viewers to beat front-runner "NBC Nightly News" by more than 2 mil.
"Late Show"/Barack Obama. CBS's David Letterman pulled off a rare win over NBC's "Tonight Show" Wednesday in the country's top TV markets with guest Dem presidential hopeful Obama.
Bill O'Reilly/Barack Obama. It all started two weeks ago, when O'Reilly's Fox News Channel show ran Part 1 of his four-part Obama interview and copped 6.6 million viewers -- the second-biggest audience in "The O'Reilly Factor" history. That ran on FNC the same night GOP presidential nominee John McCain gave his acceptance speech at his party's convention in St. Paul, Minn., setting a viewing record. Last week, on Monday, Part 2 of O'Reilly's Obama Saga averaged 4.6 million viewers -- at the exact same time Keith Olbermann's MSNBC show "Countdown" was running its Obama interview, which averaged 1.9 million. Olbermann's Obama and O'Reilly's Obama went mano a mano again the next night, Tuesday, and once again O'Reilly's Obama made mincemeat of Olbermann's Obama, 4.3 million viewers to 1.6 million, respectively. And finally, O'Reilly wrung the last drop out of his Obama on Wednesday night -- he had the Obama field to himself -- and 4.2 million tuned in.
"Coco Chanel." Shirley MacLaine's phoned-in performance nonetheless attracted 5.2 million viewers Saturday at 8, making this Lifetime biopic basic cable's No. 2-ranked original flick of the year, behind only Lifetime's "The Memory Keeper's Daughter" (5.8 mil).
"Saving Grace"/"Raising the Bar." TNT renewed both dramas for another season. Cop show "SG" averaged 4.4 million viewers this summer and winds up its second season in early '09; a 15-episode third season will kick in later next year. Meanwhile, lawyerly "RtB" is averaging 5.5 million viewers, making it ad-supported cable's top new series for '08 to date; the second season starts next year.
LOSERS
Alma Awards. The trophy show logged just 3.52 million viewers Friday at 8 after getting preempted in Los Angeles, the country's No. 2 television market: The L.A. ABC station instead covered news of the fatal Metrolink/freight train crash. In Los Angeles, the Alma Awards broadcast finally aired -- at 1:35 a.m. Sunday.
"Fringe." Maybe the most highly anticipated new-series launch of the TV season, Tuesday's unveiling of J.J. Abrams's latest series attracted only 9.1 million viewers -- about 10 million fewer than his most recent series premiere, ABC's "Lost" in '04. In fact, it's the smallest opening for a J.J. series since "Felicity," way back in September '98. On the bright side, Sunday's repeat did 75 percent of what the premiere had done among the network's target 18-to-49-year-old audience, after a repeat "Simpsons" episode, suggesting maybe there's a hit in there somewhere and the problem was the premiere's early start and lack of a lead-in show.
"The Sarah Connor Chronicles." The season debut clocked 6.3 million -- a series low for an original of that show. (This past Monday it beat that record, logging just 5.6 million viewers.)
"CMA Music Festival." ABC's Monday telecast attracted just 4.9 million viewers -- a 24 percent plunge compared with last year when it was broadcast six weeks earlier.
The week's 10 most watched programs, in order: NBC's Sunday football, CBS's "60 Minutes," ESPN's "Monday Night Football" Vikings/Packers game, ABC's Saturday football, NBC's Wednesday "America's Got Talent," NBC's Tuesday "America's Got Talent," NBC's Thursday "America's Got Talent," ESPN's "Monday Night Football" Broncos/Raiders game, NBC's Monday "Deal or No Deal" and CBS's "Two and a Half Men."
* * *
Men's Vogue posts a blurb on "Saturday Night Live's" Amy Poehler, in which it is mentioned she's leaving the show around the time of the presidential election to have her baby, after which she will star in a midseason comedy series for NBC. Never mind that all of this was already laid out by NBC execs this summer: The item got picked up yesterday by The Reporters Who Cover Television With Their Heads in the Sand, leading to such breathless reports as "Amy Poehler Moves Up SNL Exit," "Amy Poehler's . . . decided to kick 'Saturday Night Live' to the curb sooner than expected," "Hillary Clinton, oops Amy Poehler's leaving 'SNL' -- Say it isn't so" and, our fave, "No joke: Amy Poehler's leaving 'Saturday Night Live.' "
Sigh.
Back in July, NBC's programming chief, Ben Silverman, announced at the Thank God We're Working Summer TV Press Tour 2008 that his network had signed the "SNL" star to headline a new Thursday night sitcom, to be created by the guys behind the Americanization of the Britcom "The Office." The as-yet-unnamed comedy would debut in March, Silverman said. Both Silverman and "SNL" exec producer Lorne Michaels explained, in separate press-tour Q&A sessions, that they hoped Poehler would be on "SNL" through early November. "Amy will be [on the show] until her baby is born, which hopefully will be just after the election," Michaels joked during his session with TV critics and reporters, adding, "I think she'll be with us through the election."
After that, Michaels said, they expected the very pregnant Poehler to take time off to spend with her baby. And, after that, Silverman explained, NBC plans to debut her prime-time series in March.
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The Washington Post
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
McCain Able to Skirt Limits of Federal Financing
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 1212 words
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama put his fundraising machine on display in Beverly Hills last night, tallying more than $9 million at star-studded events that included a $28,500-per-person dinner and a private concert by Barbra Streisand.
Obama's record $66 million haul in August and the money that poured into his campaign last night have helped feed the impression that the senator from Illinois will have a substantial financial advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) heading into the final weeks of the presidential campaign. But presidential strategists and campaign finance experts expressed surprise yesterday that Obama's decision to become the first presidential nominee to swear off public funding for the general election -- and McCain's decision to finance his bid with a single $84 million infusion from the federal government -- has not given Obama a clear financial edge.
"Senator Obama's advantage is not emerging as people thought," said Lawrence M. Noble, a former Federal Election Commission general counsel and an Obama supporter.
The reason has less to do with Obama's fundraising -- he has now raised $440 million, more than any presidential candidate in history -- than it does with McCain's ability to maneuver within the confines of the Watergate-era funding program, Noble said.
With backing from the Republican National Committee, McCain has taken advantage of loopholes such as "hybrid" television advertisements and joint fundraising committees that may keep him close to financial parity with Obama.
McCain's campaign team has argued privately for months that he would be able to raise enough money to be competitive in the fall, and RNC officials announced earlier this week that the party would enter the general-election period with $110 million in its various accounts. Combined with McCain's federal infusion, the Republican candidate had about $200 million at his disposal. When his total is added to funds held by the Democratic National Committee, Obama began the month with about $94 million at his disposal and the ability to continue raising as much as he can.
But publicly, Republicans have not hesitated to cast McCain as being at a disadvantage, and during an appearance yesterday in Vienna, Ohio, the GOP nominee used the occasion to note that his rival's hard-edged comments about McCain and the economy came "just before he flew off to Hollywood for a fundraiser with Barbra Streisand."
"Let me tell you, friends, there's no place I'd rather be than here with the hardworking men and women of Ohio."
While McCain had to stop raising money for his campaign committee after he accepted the GOP nomination in St. Paul, Minn., earlier this month, he has hardly been idle. On Monday night, he helped bring in more than $5 million at a Miami hotel, and his campaign has found ways to both raise money and spend it through coordinated efforts with the RNC. According to Republican sources, money is pouring in to a joint fundraising committee that can legally accept up to $70,000 from a single donor. Contributions made through McCain's Web site have quadrupled in recent days, according to party officials. The site routes potential donors to a separate page that collects money for the joint committee, distributing money to the RNC, state Republican party accounts, and a compliance fund that pays the McCain campaign's legal bills. The message on the site says, "The best way to help our campaign is to give to McCain-Palin Victory 2008."
Joint committees are not new. But the way the McCain campaign is using them, in the view of some election lawyers, makes it hard for donors to tell the difference between a contribution to the joint fund and a donation directly to McCain's campaign.
"One cute issue lurking within all of this joint fundraising is whether campaigns are getting away with having people basically give to party committees what technically is money earmarked to help a particular candidate," said Scott Thomas, a former FEC chairman.
Under FEC rules, Thomas explained, the party cannot tell donors that contributions will be used expressly to help a single candidate. That practice, called earmarking, would circumvent contribution limits and, in this case, the prohibition on McCain raising private money.
Trevor Potter, who is McCain's lawyer and a former FEC chairman, said the language soliciting for the victory fund was, in part, modeled on wording used by the 2004 Democratic nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry.
Potter objected to the assertion that money is being "earmarked" for McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, because the Web site clearly states that donations will go only to the RNC, the participating state parties and the compliance fund.
The campaign is also finding more latitude in how it can spend money during the final weeks. Under federal rules, the candidate can control only how his campaign's $84 million is used, and how $20 million in coordinated funds are spent in tandem with the RNC.
But McCain aides and the RNC are also working together on "hybrid" ads, which purport to advance the cause of his campaign and the fortunes of other Republicans. The RNC and the campaign split the cost of the ads, with the only requirement being that the ads mention, in some fashion, other elements of the GOP ticket.
Candidates from both parties first used such hybrid ads in 2004, and members of the FEC deadlocked over whether they should be allowed. Some lawyers considered the ads a way to bypass coordination rules and stretch the amount of money a presidential candidate could legally spend.
Fred Wertheimer, who heads the campaign finance reform group Democracy 21, called the use of the ads in 2004 "a scheme to evade the presidential public financing spending limits and the coordinated party spending limits," adding: "We urged the FEC in June 2007 to end this abuse, but they failed to take any action to do so."
David Mason, a former FEC chairman whose efforts to address the issue were derailed by a deadlocked commission, said, "There was a lot of discussion as to what standard should apply in terms of the content of the ad. Did you have to make an explicit appeal to the Republican ticket in a specific, identifiable way?"
The hybrid ads McCain and the RNC have aired to date offer quick, passing criticisms of Democrats such as Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.), but there is little doubt they are intended to promote McCain, Mason said.
The hybrid ads and the use of joint fundraising committees are, in Noble's view, "the final distortion" of a presidential financing system that many have considered outdated for years. Because McCain has found other ways to both raise and spend money during the general-election race, Noble said, "it effectively means he is getting an $84 million subsidy for his campaign."
Obama advisers said this week that these efforts by McCain have only added pressure to the finance team to produce significant fundraising totals in upcoming weeks. "It's safe to say that is a fundraising record in Los Angeles," said Chad Griffin, a Hollywood political consultant. "This was billed as the last time Senator Obama was expected to be in Los Angeles before Election Day, so there was a tremendous amount of excitement."
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The Washington Post
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
The Ugly New McCain
BYLINE: Richard Cohen
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY
LENGTH: 708 words
Following his loss to George W. Bush in the 2000 South Carolina primary, John McCain did something extraordinary: He confessed to lying about how he felt about the Confederate battle flag, which he actually abhorred. "I broke my promise to always tell the truth," McCain said. Now he has broken that promise so completely that the John McCain of old is unrecognizable. He has become the sort of politician he once despised.
The precise moment of McCain's abasement came, would you believe, not at some news conference or on one of the Sunday shows but on "The View," the daytime TV show created by Barbara Walters. Last week, one of the co-hosts, Joy Behar, took McCain to task for some of the ads his campaign has been running. One deliberately mischaracterized what Barack Obama had said about putting lipstick on a pig -- an Americanism that McCain himself has used. The other asserted that Obama supported teaching sex education to kindergarteners.
"We know that those two ads are untrue," Behar said. "They are lies."
Freeze. Close in on McCain. This was the moment. He has largely been avoiding the press. The Straight Talk Express is now just a brand, an ad slogan like "Home Cooking" or "We Will Not Be Undersold." Until then, it was possible for McCain to say that he had not really known about the ads, that the formulation "I approve this message" was just boilerplate. But he didn't.
"Actually, they are not lies," he said.
Actually, they are.
McCain has turned ugly. His dishonesty would be unacceptable in any politician, but McCain has always set his own bar higher than most. He has contempt for most of his colleagues for that very reason: They lie. He tells the truth. He internalizes the code of the McCains -- his grandfather, his father: both admirals of the shining sea. He serves his country differently, that's all -- but just as honorably. No more, though.
I am one of the journalists accused over the years of being in the tank for McCain. Guilty. Those doing the accusing usually attributed my feelings to McCain being accessible. This is the journalist-as-puppy school of thought: Give us a treat, and we will leap into a politician's lap.
Not so. What impressed me most about McCain was the effect he had on his audiences, particularly young people. When he talked about service to a cause greater than oneself, he struck a chord. He expressed his message in words, but he packaged it in the McCain story -- that man, beaten to a pulp, who chose honor over freedom. This had nothing to do with access. It had to do with integrity.
McCain has soiled all that. His opportunistic and irresponsible choice of Sarah Palin as his political heir -- the person in whose hands he would leave the country -- is a form of personal treason, a betrayal of all he once stood for. Palin, no matter what her other attributes, is shockingly unprepared to become president. McCain knows that. He means to win, which is all right; he means to win at all costs, which is not.
At a forum last week at Columbia University, McCain said, "But right now we have to restore trust and confidence in government." This was always the promise of John McCain, the single best reason to vote for him. America has been cheated on too many times -- the lies of Vietnam and Watergate and Iraq. So many lies. Who believes that in Afghanistan last month, only five civilians were killed by the American military in an airstrike, instead of the approximately 90 claimed by the Afghan government? Not me. I first gave up on the military during Vietnam and then again when it covered up the death of Pat Tillman, the Army Ranger and former NFL player who was killed in 2004 by friendly fire.
McCain was going to fix all that. He was going to look the American people in the eyes and say, not me. I will not lie to you. I am John McCain, son and grandson of admirals. I tell the truth.
But Joy Behar knew better. And so McCain lied about his lying and maybe thinks that if he wins the election, he can -- as he did in South Carolina -- renounce who he was and what he did and resume his old persona. It won't work. Karl Marx got one thing right -- what he said about history repeating itself. Once is tragedy, a second time is farce. John McCain is both.
cohenr@washpost.com
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The Washington Post
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Regional Edition
Obama's Panic
BYLINE: Michael Gerson
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19
LENGTH: 723 words
Seldom has there been a larger contrast between the style of a candidate and the strategy of his campaign.
Barack Obama is cool, firm and permanently unruffled. It is precisely this quality of steadiness that has made him seem a credible prospective president with the thinnest of résumés.
But Obama's campaign is rootless, reactive and panicky. At every stage since securing the nomination, it has seemed fearful of missteps and unsure of its own organizing principle. So it has invariably adopted the Democratic conventional wisdom of the moment.
Obama's first major decision was his running mate. He could have reinforced a message of change and moderation with a Democratic governor who wins in a Republican state, or reached for history by selecting Hillary Clinton. But his choice came soon after Russia invaded Georgia, and the conventional wisdom demanded an old hand who knew his way around Tbilisi. When the Georgia crisis faded, Obama was left with a partisan, undisciplined, congressional liberal at his side. This has served to undermine Obama's message of change -- and has allowed Sarah Palin to pilfer a portion of that appeal.
Obama's second decision concerned the tone and content of his convention. Here the Democratic conventional wisdom was nearly unanimous. Obama should shelve his highfalutin rhetoric and talk like a real Democrat. Go after McCain. Talk about "bread and butter" issues -- code words for class-warfare attacks on consumers of blinis and caviar.
Obama took this advice to the letter -- at the cost of his political identity. In his Denver speech, it seemed that every American home was on the auction block, every car stalled for lack of gasoline, every credit card bill past due, every worker treated like a Russian serf. And John McCain? He was out of touch, with flawed "judgment." His life devoted to serving oil companies and big corporations. And, by the way, he didn't have the courage to follow Osama bin Laden "to the cave where he lives." In obedience to the best Democratic advice, Obama managed to be conventional, bitter and graceless.
Now Obama has made his third major campaign decision -- to finally get really tough on McCain. In response to attacks and dropping polls, the Democratic wisdom is once again nearly uniform: Democrats lose because they are not vicious enough. And once again, the Obama campaign has taken this advice without hesitation. "We will respond with speed and ferocity to John McCain's attacks, and we will take the fight to him," says Obama's campaign manager.
Obama feels provoked -- and he has been. There is no evidence that Obama supported explicit sex education for kindergarteners, as a McCain ad implied. Having already accused McCain of being a cowardly corporate tool who is disconnected from reality, escalation is not an easy task for Obama. But he has managed. In one recent commercial, McCain is clearly mocked for his age -- compared to a disco ball and a 10-pound cellphone. Another ad uses the word "dishonorable" next to a photo of McCain -- an attack from a candidate who has little practical familiarity with the cost of honor.
Who is hurt most by this race to the bottom? McCain, by the evidence of his own convention, wants to be a viewed as a fighter -- which a fight does little to undermine. Obama was introduced to America as a different and better kind of politician -- an image now in tatters.
Even worse for Obama, all these shifts to catch the prevailing winds confirm the most serious concerns about his political character. As a senator, he has almost never opposed the ideological consensus of his party. (The ethics reform he often cites as his profile in courage eventually passed the Senate 96 to 2.) And now as a presidential candidate, Obama has run his campaign with all the constancy of a skittish sailboat on an erratic ocean.
Here is a different strategy. Obama could attempt to "beat back the politics of fear, and doubt, and cynicism." He could try to build a coalition that "stretches through red states and blue states." He could reject "the politics where we tear each other down instead of lifting this country up."
The candidate who said those words the night he won the Iowa caucuses did pretty well. But whatever the outcome of this presidential election, that candidate is no longer in the race.
michaelgerson@cfr.org
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September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Met 2 Edition
GOP Rally Reaches Out To Minorities
BYLINE: Amy Gardner; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: METRO; Pg. B01
LENGTH: 789 words
Northern Virginia Republicans, realizing they need to improve their appeal among the region's large ethnic population, will stage a "unity" rally Saturday that they say will draw 1,000 people.
Organizers said the annual rally, which has grown in recent years, is particularly significant this year because ethnic minorities represent an increasingly powerful voting bloc that will help decide which presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain, wins the state Nov. 4.
But Democrats say the rally does not signify a surge in immigrant support for Republicans, and even GOP organizers acknowledged that evidence of a broader coalition of ethnic Republicans is slim.
"We confront a perception problem, which we have to fight every day -- that the Republican Party is not for working people or immigrants," said Jim Hyland, a rally organizer and chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Committee. "The only way that we can battle that is to take the fight directly to the people in these communities, spread the word that the Republican Party represents more of their views than the Democratic Party."
Hyland said he expects as many as 1,000 supporters to turn out for the event at Edison High School, where former senator George Allen and Reps. Tom Davis and Frank R. Wolf are expected to speak. Former Virginia governor James S. Gilmore III is planning to attend, as is a widely known surrogate from McCain's campaign, organizers said.
Republicans have boosted their efforts to reach out to immigrant communities that traditionally have voted Democratic. To bolster participation at the rally, they are targeting Korean, Arab, Chinese, Taiwanese and Latin American communities across the county through phone banks and door-to-door visits.
County Republicans also have translated McCain's education policies into Korean and Spanish, and workers will distribute the information at the rally. They are also operating Korean-language phone banks to invite voters to the rally. And to appeal to small-business owners in immigrant communities, organizers are talking about low taxes, less regulation and encouragement of entrepreneurialism. They are also rallying around family values and social conservatism in the hope that those issues will connect with voters.
"We all have our own little enclaves, small enclaves, and no unified voice," said Ken Feng, 59, a Chinese American from Herndon who is active in Republican politics and focusing on Chinese turnout for the rally. "We are trying to gather all the ethnic groups together so we can have a unified voice for our candidates."
Two events last week had sparse turnout, offering little evidence that the voice is growing stronger. To announce the weekend rally, county Republicans held a news briefing at which organizers representing seven ethnic groups explained their efforts to boost minority turnout. But all were steadfast Republican volunteers -- not examples of newly minted Republican voters.
Later, the Republican National Hispanic Assembly of Virginia, Latinas for McCain, Hispanic Veterans for McCain and local Hispanic leaders gathered to endorse McCain for president.
About 15 people participated in the event, which was held at the Tower Club in Tysons Corner -- and not in one of Fairfax's commercial or residential enclaves, such as Annandale or Baileys Crossroads, known for their concentrations of ethnic minorities.
The events, Democrats said, say more about Republican nervousness than the party's chance for success among minorities. Virginia is a presidential battleground state for the first time in 44 years, prompting the candidates to devote more time and energy to the area. In particular, vote-rich Northern Virginia will be crucial in deciding who wins.
"This happens almost every election cycle," said Gerald E. Connolly (D), chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. He is seeking the congressional seat held by Davis, who is retiring.
"Prominent Republican minority figures come out and say, 'We're a diverse party.' But you know, if you looked at the convention in St. Paul, the numbers were appallingly low. If you looked at the McCain rally in Fairfax, it was an overwhelmingly white event. Every election cycle they do this, and every election cycle, minorities vote for Democrats in large numbers."
Some of the county's largest minority enclaves are also some of the strongest performers for Democratic candidates.
The population of the county's Mason District, for example, including Annandale, Baileys, Willston and Lincolnia, is mostly minority -- and it delivered some of the widest margins for Connolly last year, when he was reelected chairman; for Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2006; and for Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) in 2005.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Don Petersen -- Associated Press; Former senator George Allen is one of the Republicans scheduled to speak to voters at a weekend rally in Fairfax County.
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The Washington Post
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Met 2 Edition
McCain Embraces Regulation After Many Years of Opposition
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1228 words
A decade ago, Sen. John McCain embraced legislation to broadly deregulate the banking and insurance industries, helping to sweep aside a thicket of rules established over decades in favor of a less restricted financial marketplace that proponents said would result in greater economic growth.
Now, as the Bush administration scrambles to prevent the collapse of the American International Group (AIG), the nation's largest insurance company, and stabilize a tumultuous Wall Street, the Republican presidential nominee is scrambling to recast himself as a champion of regulation to end "reckless conduct, corruption and unbridled greed" on Wall Street.
"Government has a clear responsibility to act in defense of the public interest, and that's exactly what I intend to do," a fiery McCain said at a rally in Tampa yesterday. "In my administration, we're going to hold people on Wall Street responsible. And we're going to enact and enforce reforms to make sure that these outrages never happen in the first place."
McCain hopes to tap into anger among voters who are looking for someone to blame for the economic meltdown that threatens their home values, bank accounts and 401(k) plans. But his past support of congressional deregulation efforts and his arguments against "government interference" in the free market by federal, state and local officials have given Sen. Barack Obama an opening to press the advantage Democrats traditionally have in times of economic trouble.
In 2002, McCain introduced a bill to deregulate the broadband Internet market, warning that "the potential for government interference with market forces is not limited to federal regulation." Three years earlier, McCain had joined with other Republicans to push through landmark legislation sponsored by then-Sen. Phil Gramm (Tex.), who is now an economic adviser to his campaign. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act aimed to make the country's financial institutions competitive by removing the Depression-era walls between banking, investment and insurance companies.
That bill allowed AIG to participate in the gold rush of a rapidly expanding global banking and investment market. But the legislation also helped pave the way for companies such as AIG and Lehman Brothers to become behemoths laden with bad loans and investments.
McCain now condemns the executives at those companies for pursuing the ambitions that the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act made possible, saying that "in an endless quest for easy money, they dreamed up investment schemes that they themselves don't even understand."
He said the misconduct was aided by "casual oversight by regulatory agencies in Washington," where he said oversight is "scattered, unfocused and ineffective."
"They haven't been doing their job right," McCain said yesterday, "or else we wouldn't have these massive problems on Wall Street, and that's a fact. At their worst, they've been caught up in Washington turf wars instead of working together to protect investors and the public interest."
Yesterday, Obama seized on what he called McCain's "newfound support for regulation" and accused his rival of backing "a broken system in Washington that is breaking the American economy."
In a speech in Golden, Colo., Obama blamed the economic crisis on an "economic philosophy" that he said McCain and President Bush supported blindly.
"John McCain has spent decades in Washington supporting financial institutions instead of their customers," he told a crowd of about 2,100 at the Colorado School of Mines. "So let's be clear: What we've seen the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed."
Obama released a TV ad that mocks McCain for saying on Monday that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" and asks: "How can John McCain fix our economy if he doesn't understand it's broken?"
He also poked fun at McCain for proposing a commission to examine the crisis, calling that "the oldest Washington stunt in the book."
"This isn't 9/11. We know how we got into this mess," Obama said. "What we need now is leadership that gets us out. I'll provide it, John McCain won't, and that's the choice for the American people in this election."
Obama reiterated his economic proposals: a stimulus plan and protections for struggling homeowners. Over the long term, he proposes enhancing regulations of the financial markets, including creating an advisory panel to regularly update the president.
McCain's proposed changes for the system were equally vague.
"There will be constant access to the books and accounts of our banks and other financial institutions," he said. "By law, it will reduce the debt and risk that any bank can take on. And above all, I promise reforms to prevent the kind of wild speculation that can put our markets at risk, and has already inflicted such enormous damage across our economy."
McCain offered his own TV ad promising to "reform Wall Street" and pass "new rules for fairness and honesty," adding: "I won't tolerate a system that puts you and your family at risk. Your savings, your jobs . . . I'll keep them safe," the ad says.
He did not describe how he would bring greater transparency to the process. His senior policy adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, told reporters earlier in the day that there was no need for McCain to be specific right now.
"There's no magic solutions, and I don't think it's imperative at this moment to write down what the plan should be," he said. "The real issue here is a leadership issue.''
McCain stumbled Monday when the financial crisis peaked, first saying the "fundamentals" of the economy were strong. After being hammered by Obama and the Democrats -- "What economy is he talking about?" Obama asked -- he said that he knows the economy is in crisis, but that the basis of the American economy, the American worker, is strong.
By Tuesday, McCain had retooled the message further, and tried to wrap the financial meltdown into his campaign's greater message about changing "the way Washington does business."
McCain has not always opposed government regulation. He supported efforts to allow the Food and Drug Administration to regulate tobacco. And he pushed to strengthen the Sarbanes-Oxley Act requirements, which were put in place after the accounting scandals involving Enron and other major firms.
But he has usually reverted to the role of an unabashed deregulator. In 2007, he told a group of bloggers on a conference call that he regretted his vote on the Sarbanes-Oxley bill, which has been castigated by many executives as too heavy-handed.
In the 1990s, he backed an unsuccessful effort to create a moratorium on all new government regulation. And in 1996, he was one of only five senators to oppose a comprehensive telecommunications act, saying it did not go far enough in deregulating the industry.
As chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee for more than a decade, McCain did not have direct oversight of the financial sector. But he sat at the center of arguments between telephone, cable and satellite companies, almost always pressing for more competition.
"I'm always for less regulation," he told the Wall Street Journal in March. He added: "I'd like to see a lot of the unnecessary government regulations eliminated."
Staff writers Robert Barnes and Anne E. Kornblut and political researcher Alice Crites contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: September 17, 2008
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Ed Andrieski -- Associated Press; "John McCain has spent decades . . . supporting financial institutions instead of their customers," Sen. Barack Obama said in Golden, Colo.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 17, 2008 Wednesday 3:30 PM EST
McCain, Palin Rally Supporters;
Vienna, Ohio
BYLINE: CQ Transcripts Wire, washingtonpost.com
LENGTH: 3095 words
HIGHLIGHT: ALASKA GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN: John McCain is all about putting government back on the side of the people. He and I, we're going to take our case for that reform that is needed in our government to voters of every background, in every party, or no party at all. And with your vote, we're going to Washington, D.C. to shake things up.
ALASKA GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN: John McCain is all about putting government back on the side of the people. He and I, we're going to take our case for that reform that is needed in our government to voters of every background, in every party, or no party at all. And with your vote, we're going to Washington, D.C. to shake things up.
(APPLAUSE)
Here's how I look at the choice that we have in this election. In politics (inaudible -- break in tape) the old "politics as usual" and that's why we need that reform to get there. We need to take the maverick of the Senate and put him in the White House.
(APPLAUSE)
John McCain is -- he's going to get our economy back on track. This is so important. I know you woke up yesterday morning and you heard the news and you realized, too, we're hutting. He's got to help us, and he will put the economy back on track.
Politicians in Washington tend to like to talk about the economy and job creation. But the people who actually create most jobs in this great country, they're the small-business owners. People like Todd...
(APPLAUSE)
People like Todd with our commercial fishing business and my sister and her family just -- with a brand-new service station that they just built and opened up, or Todd's folks owning a hardware store. Our family, like your families, we know that the best way to help small businesses is for government to take less from them, leave more for them, so that they can expand and create jobs.
(APPLAUSE)
It's a pretty system principle, and it works. And that is the way that we create jobs and hire more people, and that's exactly what we're going to do in a McCain-Palin administration.
(APPLAUSE)
Now, we've got to be aware that our opponent has a very different plan. He wants to raise income taxes, and he wants to raise payroll taxes.
(BOOING)
And raise investment income taxes and raise the death tax and raise...
(BOOING)
... business taxes. That's his plan. He actually proposes to raise taxes in this hurting economy, this time of hurt in America. In a hurting economy, that increase in taxes would equate to about billions and billions of dollars on you -- taken from you.
And even with all those new taxes, still, our opponent would need more taxes to pay for the enormous new federal programs that he's proposing. But here's a little straight talk for our opponent. His tax plans really would kill jobs and hurt small businesses and make even today's bad economy look like the good old days.
To grow our economy, Ohio, you know this. To grow our economy and to avoid a recession, to bring new jobs to this state or save the jobs that you already have, we need relief for every taxpayer and for every business in America. And we also need serious reform on Wall Street, and John McCain is the guy who will get it done.
(APPLAUSE)
Reform on Wall Street is necessary. It's going to affect every single one of you. Almost two out of every three Americans have a stake in the market, and that's through pensions and 401(k)s and IRAs and the like. Families across America have a right to expect that their interest and their investments will be protected.
Instead, what's going on now, huge investment banks are going under because of their own bad practices and then they're asking the public to bail them out. Federal agencies are failing to defend you, are failing to defend the public interests.
And reckless CEOs are walking off with multi-million dollar severance deals; money taken from what's left of some of these companies that they were supposed to be serving. It's going to take a man of action and a proven reformer to clean up Wall Street, and that man is Senator John McCain.
(APPLAUSE)
Now, as for my part as mayor and as governor, I always knew that I was accountable to the people who hired me, the people of Alaska. And in a McCain-Palin administration, we will never forget that, first and foremost, we will be there working for you.
(APPLAUSE)
And John and I, we've discussed some new responsibilities that I'm going to have as vice president, and I look forward to these.
First, I'll help to lead the mission of energy security.
(APPLAUSE)
As governor, my job has been to oversee such a great portion of the oil development and production levels in our domestic supply here in the U.S. I had to take on the big oil company interests and kind of break up a monopoly up there in order to get competition in order to ramp up some production initiatives that are underway.
I got agreements through competition to build a nearly $40 billion national gas pipeline, and that's going to feed very hungry markets when it's built. And when that last section of pipe is laid, America will be one step closer to energy independence, and that's good for our economy and it's good for our security. (APPLAUSE)
As your vice president, I will help John McCain implement his "all-of-the-above" strategy for energy independence. I drove by a gas station the other day near here, and I saw that gas is now nearing four bucks a gallon again. Here in Ohio, gas prices are making a full tank at the pump kind of seem like a luxury.
The cost of living, of course, is going up. Groceries going up. Everything's going up, but the value of your paycheck has gone down all because of energy and transportation costs.
And people blame Washington for this one for doing next to nothing. And on that one, they got it right.
(APPLAUSE)
John McCain, though, he's going confront our energy problems once and for all. He's not going to just talk about it. We're going to expand our use of alternative fuels. We're going to drill now to make this nation energy independent.
(APPLAUSE)
And, Ohio, to make this nation more energy independent and to help power the American economy with clean coal technology, we're going to be looking to the hard-working people here in this state to help us out on that front. So thank you, Ohio, for that.
(APPLAUSE)
You all know it's a matter of national security and future prosperity. We need American energy resources brought to you by American ingenuity and produced by American workers.
(APPLAUSE)
Second, I'm going help lead the mission of reforming government. We're going to make government more transparent and more accountable and more open to those who want to serve. We're going to recruit the best to serve you and to help those people who have desired to participate in their government, regardless of party affiliation, regardless of whether they have that Washington experience.
In Alaska, we have done things like put the state checkbook online so that everyone can see where their money goes in government. And in a McCain-Palin administration...
(APPLAUSE)
... we're going to bring that kind of openness to Washington. Hasn't been done there before, but again, that's the reason we're going to D.C. We want to shake things up.
(APPLAUSE) And third, another mission that I'm going to be on, I've told Senator McCain about a few things that I've learned as governor and learned as a mom. Ever since I took the chief executive's job up north, I fought for funding for students with special needs, and it's really touched my heart...
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you. It has touched my heart especially with the beautiful addition to our extended family about 13 years ago, a nephew with autism. And now my family and I, we have added special, a good, good perspective, that recently came into our lives four months ago with the birth of our perfectly beautiful baby boy, Trig.
(APPLAUSE)
This new perspective has really added to our lives because we now join so many American families that know that some of life's greatest joys sometimes come with some unique challenges. And we're going to make sure that government is on their side, too.
(APPLAUSE)
Man, and, you know, talking about an issue like that, I just feel America's heart. I feel Ohio's heart. And I thank you for understanding where I'm coming from on that one. I appreciate you, Ohio.
(APPLAUSE)
Ladies and gentlemen, joining the ticket with John McCain is a great privilege, and it's going to be just the most humbling experience, also, to be able to serve beside him as vice president. It's going to be a high but humbling experience.
And I want to tell you some things really quickly about him because he won't say these on his own behalf.
You know, our opponents have been going on lately about how they always, quote, fight for you. But again, since John McCain won't say it himself, I'm going to say it.
There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you.
(APPLAUSE)
Ohio, he has fought for you. He's going to keep fighting for you. He's the only great man in this race. And he is ready to serve as our 44th president of the United States of America, John McCain.
(APPLAUSE)
ARIZONA SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN: Thank you.
(APPLAUSE) Thank you very much.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you. I am so proud to be introduced by Sarah Palin, the great governor of the state of Alaska, but I can hardly wait to introduce her to Washington, D.C.
(APPLAUSE)
The old boy, big spender, earmarking, business as usual, me first and the nation second, old boy circuit in Washington is coming to an end. And it's going to end when we are elected to the presidency and the vice presidency of the United States, and it has to happen here in the state of Ohio.
We need your vote. We need you to turn out. We can win in Ohio.
(APPLAUSE)
And we have to win here.
(APPLAUSE)
My friends, if Governor Palin and I are elected in 49 days, we're not going to waste a moment changing the way Washington does business. And we're going start where the need for reform is greatest. In short order, we're going to put an end to the reckless conduct, corruption, and unbridled greed that have caused a crisis on Wall Street in America.
(APPLAUSE)
We're going put a stop to it.
(APPLAUSE)
The working people of Ohio and this nation are the most innovative, the hardest-working, the best-skilled, the most productive, most competitive in the world.
(APPLAUSE)
This -- this foundation of our economy, the American worker, is strong but it's been put at risk by the greed and mismanagement of Wall Street and Washington. The top of our economy is broken. We have seen self-interest, greed, irresponsibility and corruption, yes, and corruption, undermine the hard work of the American people. It's time to set things right, and I promise to get the job done as your president.
(APPLAUSE)
I promise you that.
(APPLAUSE)
You know, Americans put a lot of trust in the bankers and brokerage firms at Wall Street. They depend on the financial service sector to protect their savings, their IRAs, the 401(k)s, pension plans, but many leaders in financing have proven unworthy of that trust.
Government has a clear responsibility to act in defense of the public interest, and that's exactly what I intend to do.
(APPLAUSE)
We're going to make sure that American's accounts are protected. I pledge that the FDIC and the SPIC will have all the support they need to fully back the savings of the American people.
(APPLAUSE)
My friends, too many people -- too many people on Wall Street have been recklessly wagering instead of making the sound investments we expected of them. And when the economies collapse and their companies collapse, only the CEOs seem to escape the consequences while employees, shareholders, and other victims are left with nothing but trouble and debt.
The people who help cause the collapse make off with tens of millions in severance packages, and that's terrible.
(APPLAUSE)
I've spoken out.
(APPLAUSE)
I've spoken out against the excessive corporate executives, and I can assure you that if I am president, we're not going to tolerate that any more.
(APPLAUSE)
In my administration, we're going to hold the people of Wall Street responsible, and we're going to enact and enforce reforms to make sure that these outrages never happen in the first place.
(APPLAUSE)
Too many people on Wall Street have forgotten or discarded the basic rules of sound finance. In an endless quest for easy money, they dreamed up investment schemes that they, themselves, don't even understand with their derivatives, credit default swaps, and mortgage- backed securities. They tried to make their own rules, but they could only avoid the basic rules of economics for so long.
Now, as their schemes unravel in bankruptcies and collapse, it's once again, the public that's left to bare the cost. And I promise you that on my watch, we're never going to let these kinds of abuses go...
(APPLAUSE)
We're never going to let...
(APPLAUSE)
Too many practices on Wall Street have been kept hidden from public view to buy time, postpone the inevitable reckoning. Bad investments were made even worse, risks even allowed to multiply by keeping them off the books, derivatives, mortgage-backed securities, and other complicated instruments often disguised, foolish investments, and were sold to insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds, banks, and individuals.
When the housing markets collapsed and the value of these securities went away, down, way down, our banks couldn't pay their debts. We saw Bear-Stearns collapse followed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, more recently, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and a troubled Merrill Lynch sold in order -- to the Bank of America -- in order to survive.
And now we have other banks and insurance companies at risk. So much of the loss and damage to our economy could have been avoided if these practices had been exposed to the light of day.
People have a right to know when their jobs, pensions, investments, and our whole economy are being put at risk by the recklessness of Wall Street.
(APPLAUSE)
And under my reforms for the financial sector, that fundamental right will be protected. Too many firms on Wall Street have been able to count on casual oversight by regulatory agencies in Washington, and there are so many of these regulators that the responsibility for oversight scattered, unfocussed, and ineffective. Among others, we've got the SEC, the CFTC, the FDIC, the SPIC, and the OCC. But for all those big and impressive-sounding names, the fact is they haven't been doing their job right or else we wouldn't have faced those massive problems on Wall Street.
(APPLAUSE)
They haven't been doing their job right.
(APPLAUSE)
At their worst, they've been caught up in Washington turf wars instead of working together to protect investors and the public interest. And we don't need a dozen federal agencies doing the job badly. We need the best federal agencies to do the job right.
(APPLAUSE)
Under my reforms, the American people will be protected by comprehensive regulations that will apply the rules and enforce them to the fullest. There will be constant access to the books and accounts of our banks and others financial institutions.
By law, it will reduce the debt and risk that any bank can take on. And above all, I promise you, reforms to prevent the kind of wild speculation that can put our markets at risk and that's already inflicted such enormous damage across our economy.
My friends, two years ago, I warned the administration, the Congress, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac needed to be fixed. And it turns out the problem was a lot bigger. They waited too long. Now, we have a housing crisis, three bail-outs with taxpayer's money, and a financial crisis.
As for the Congress, members in both parties must accept a share the responsibility. Some members seem to measure the financial health of banks and lenders by the size of their political contributions instead of the extent of their debt.
They listen to the lobbyists instead of the accountants. I can promise you the days of dealing and special favors will soon be over, and in a McCain-Palin administration...
(APPLAUSE)
... the public interest in this country will always come first. Always.
(APPLAUSE)
Honest people on Wall Street, and there are many, will have a friend in the White House when I'm president. The financial services industry plays a vital and honorable role in our economy, and I will seek reforms to help them to serve their shareholders and employees. But when any Wall Street operator abuses the trust of the public, then they will face the consequences, and they will have a fight on their hands with the president of the United States.
(APPLAUSE)
I'll fight -- I'll continue the fight to reform Wall Street and protect the savings and pensions of the American people. I'll make sure that Washington works for your interest and not the special interests. I'll fight to make it easier for small-business owners everywhere to grow and hire. I'll fight to make sure you can afford a home loan or a student loan or a small-business loan. I'll fight to make sure we create more jobs here at home and prosperity for all Americans.
(APPLAUSE) We've seen a telling moment in this campaign today. Senator Obama saw an economic crisis and has found a political opportunity. My friends, this is not a time for political opportunism. This is a time for leadership.
(APPLAUSE)
Too often -- too often, we hear people say America is in decline. I reject that. I believe America's best days are ahead of us.
(APPLAUSE)
Governor Palin and I are going to reform Wall Street. We're going to reform Washington. I'm going to fight for you, and I'm going lead our nation forward in the greatest period of prosperity in its history.
(APPLAUSE)
And let's have some straight talk. Senator Obama is not interested in the politics of hope. He's interested in his political future. And that's why he's hurling insults and making up facts about his record.
(APPLAUSE)
Today, he claimed the Congressional Stimulus Package was his idea. That's news to those of us in Congress who supported it. Senator Obama didn't even show up to vote.
(BOOING)
He talks a tough game on the financial crisis, but the facts tell a different story. Senator Obama took more money from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac than anyone but the chairman of the committee they answer to.
(BOOING)
And he put Fannie Mae's CEO, who helped create this problem, in charge of finding his vice president.
(BOOING)
That's not change. That's what's broken in Washington.
(APPLAUSE)
He talked about siding with the people. Siding with the people just before he flew off to Hollywood for a fund-raiser with Barbara Streisand and his celebrity friends.
(BOOING)
Let me tell you, my friends, there's no place I'd rather be than here with the working men and women of Ohio. (APPLAUSE)
I'm going to fight for you, and together we're going win in November.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you. And God bless you and God bless America.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
END
.ETX
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Washingtonpost.com
September 17, 2008 Wednesday 1:00 PM EST
Real Life Politics
BYLINE: Ruth Marcus, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4660 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post opinion columnist Ruth Marcus will be online Wednesday, Sept. 17 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss her recent columns and the latest news.
Washington Post opinion columnist Ruth Marcus will be online Wednesday, Sept. 17 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss her recent columns and the latest news.
Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.
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Ruth Marcus: Sorry guys, I was just answering some reader mail and let the time get away from me. Getting right to reading your questions...
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Burke, Va.: Ms. Marcus -- is it outrageous (you say lying!) for a McCain ad to simply make the conservative argument on taxes? Obama's tax hikes will hurt working families because he wants to end the Bush tax cuts and raise taxes on business and our most productive citizens. Slamming a weak economy with higher rates will hurt all families, not just the rich. While bashing the McCain ads, you fail to mention the cruel Obama ad about McCain not being able to type e-mail. He is indeed familiar with e-mail, but he cannot type very easily because of his war wounds!
Ruth Marcus: No--I have no problem with simply making the conservative argument on taxes. In fact, here is an editorial what we published on the subject. My problem is with the suggestion that Obama would increase taxes on all--not with the argument that this is foolish tax policy.
editorial
Continuing Deception
Mr. McCain's ads on taxes are just plain false.
Sunday, August 31, 2008; B06
THERE IS a serious debate to be had in this presidential campaign about the fundamentally different tax policies of Barack Obama and John McCain. Then there is the phony, misleading and at times outright dishonest debate that the McCain campaign has been waging -- most recently with a television ad.
The two candidates have very different positions on taxes. Mr. Obama wants to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans and cut them substantially for low- and middle-income taxpayers. He would cut taxes for more households, and by a larger amount, than Mr. McCain, who would give the greatest benefits to wealthy households and corporations.
These are disagreements rooted in divergent views about the role of tax policy: the importance of reducing inequality versus the importance of encouraging investment. Mr. Obama has the wiser and more fiscally responsible of the plans, on balance, but this is by no means a one-sided debate between evil, tycoon-hugging Republicans and good-hearted Democrats. Higher taxes do have consequences for the behavior of both individuals and corporations. Listening to the candidates debate and defend their actual plans would be a useful exercise.
Instead, the McCain campaign insists on completely misrepresenting Mr. Obama's plan. The ad opens with the Obama-as-celebrity theme -- "Celebrities don't have to worry about family budgets, but we sure do," says the female announcer. "We're paying more for food and gas, making it harder to save for college, retirement." Then she sticks it to him: "Obama's solution? Higher taxes, called 'a recipe for economic disaster.' He's ready to raise your taxes but not ready to lead."
The facts? The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that the Obama plan would give households in the bottom fifth of the income distribution an average tax cut of 5.5 percent of income ($567) in 2009, while those in the middle fifth would get an average cut of 2.6 percent of income ($1,118). "Your taxes" would go up, yes -- but not if you're someone who is sweating higher gas prices. By contrast, Mr. McCain's tax plan would give those in the bottom fifth of income an average tax cut of $21 in 2009. The middle fifth would get $325 -- less than a third of the Obama cut. The wealthiest taxpayers make out terrifically.
The country can't afford the tax cuts either man is promising, although Mr. McCain's approach is by far the more costly. We don't expect either side to admit that. But neither side should get to outright lie about its opponent's positions, either.
View all comments that have been posted about this article.
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Bethesda, Md.: My question is why politicians manage to get away with so much dishonesty. In the television interviews I've seen, the reporters don't push the candidates very hard on questions, and in turn the candidates just recite the same canned lines over and over. The pundits on "their side" then latch on to and repeat these same lines ... it's just so sickening that I'd rather just play video games.
Ruth Marcus: Good, and troubling question. I think we tend not to know enough (or have done enough homework) on the questions we're asking, so the follow-ups are too often lame. And the time pressures inherent in television don't allow for the pressing--candidates can just run out the clock. It's very frustrating.
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New York: Richard Cohen's column yesterday was remarkable, a "game-changer," but it's my understanding it did not run in the printed version of the paper. Is this so?
washingtonpost.com: The Ugly New McCain (Post, Sept. 17)
Ruth Marcus: I believe it only ran on-line--and it got a very good reasdership there.
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Los Angeles: McCain is fast reaching what I call the "Mary McCarthy Threshhold." That's when the great novelist and critic declared that every word playwright and memoirst Lilian Hellman said was a lie "including 'and' and 'the.' " Hellman sued and, as I recall, lost. Am I right about that?
washingtonpost.com: Suit was dropped after Hellman's death. (Wikipedia)
Ruth Marcus: Nice line--I certainly wouldnt' go that far about Sen. McCain.
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Atlanta: Hi Ruth. A comment on your column about McCain: He is even more disingenuous on the tax issue than you realize. His health care plan is going to make contributions by your employer toward your health insurance taxable income for all of us who are on a company-sponsored plan. I call that raising my taxes, and my household income is appoximately $100,000.
Ruth Marcus: Actually, I think the taxability of health insurance benefits is a more complicated issue, and hope to write about it some time soon.
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Grand Rapids, Mich.: Your column led me to think about Sen. McCain and whether we can trust his promise to clean up Wall Street. As I recall, he said he learned an important lesson about greed, etc., during his "Keating 5" experience in the midst of the Savings and Loan crisis. Has he explained why, in light of that experience, he has been a strong proponent of deregulating the financial services industry? If he didn't learn his lesson from that searing experience then, when he admitted his honorable reputation was tarnished, why should we believe his words now?
Ruth Marcus: I've been spending a lot of time in the last few days reading and talking about both candidates' psoitions on regulation, and Sen. McCain's change of rhetoric on this issue is truly remarkable.
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Washington: Ms. Marcus, I am sure you will have a lot of invective hurled at you for today's opinion piece on McCain, so let me please say: Thank you for calling it like it is! Keep up the good work.
Ruth Marcus: HAHAHA. I don't believe in Santa, so I can't answer.
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Baltimore: Good afternoon. You write in your column today: "Obama would lower taxes for most households, and lower them more than McCain would. The only 'painful tax increases on working American families' would be on working families making more than $250,000." This quote is extremely misleading and taken right out of Obama's talking points. The fact is that everyone that has any stock will have their capital gains taxes raised, and small businesses will have to pay much more in payroll taxes under Obama's plan. Last time I checked, small businesses employ a majority of our workforce. What happens to their jobs when their employers incurs all of these new taxes?
Ruth Marcus: Sen. Obama's plan would be to raise the capital gains rate for those making more than $250,000. Not sure what you mean by more payroll taxes for small business, but the only small business affected would be the very small number that have incomes in excess of $250,000.
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Los Angeles: Ms. Marcus: Please offer your view as to why so much of the media (especially TV news) continues to promote this image of McCain as a "maverick." He is uninformed, speaks on every side of every issue and is firmly on the side of Bush's "base" -- the ultra wealthy. Thank you.
Ruth Marcus: He certainly has been a maverick, on many issues. And I think he is getting some criticism (including from me) for
his new incarnation.
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What change in rhetoric?: For decades Washington has been dominated by an ideology that is proudly, publicly, explicitly allergic to regulation. John McCain has endorsed that ideology. He campaigned for it. He confirmed its appointees. He voted for its bills. So when did McCain's rhetorical "change" you point to actually occur?
Ruth Marcus: There may be some previous snippets, but in its most vociferous form, Monday or Tuesday.
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Atlanta: Politico had an article quoting several historians who have said that there is nothing particularly dishonest or nasty about this election by historical standards. Why do the liberal media insist on trumping up this false issue?
washingtonpost.com: Historians say McCain camp not sleaziest (Politico, Sept. 16)
Ruth Marcus: I haven't read the piece yet, but I imagine there is one like that in every election: we reporters moan about dishonesty and the historians remind us about how really nasy and dishonest things used to be. I'm sure they're right, but one thing about this election is that both candidate presented themselves as offering a different tone--NOT!
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New York: Regarding the AIG bailout, apparently Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke rejected a deal with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan on Sunday night, unwilling to commit $40 billion in Fed funding. Less than 36 hours later, Paulson and Bernanke accepted a deal with substantially worse terms for the Fed -- $85 billion in funding and zero private funding.
It appears that Paulson and Bernanke were willing to let AIG fail as of Sunday evening, and consequently held a very firm line in its negotiations with Goldman and J.P. Morgan. Didn't the Republican Party decide an AIG collapse would have harmed McCain grievously, particularly after his series of conflicting statements on the economy on Monday? I can't help but believe that the Bush administration found AIG's potential collapse to be acceptable, but not the political consequences.
Ruth Marcus: I don't see any basis for that rather serious assertion. As far as i can tell, they could allow Lehman to go under without huge collateral damage to the economy and didn't think the same was true of AIG.
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Washington: Human nature being what it is, it's easier to rationalize, justify or excuse a candidate's exaggeration, misstatement or outright lie if it's a candidate you generally tend to agree with or suppport than it is if it's a candidate you generally disagree with or oppose. A misstatement by someone you support seems to be well-intentioned, or essentally right even if technically wrong. A misstatement by someone you oppose is simply evidence of the opponent's bad character and the fundamental weakness of his or her arguments.
So when I read your argument that McCain's dishonesty is somehow worse than Obama's, I don't see any more substance to your argument than that, on the whole, you are more in sync with Obama than McCain. (If you're planning to vote for McCain, or truly are undecided, then boy am I wrong.) Before you and other pundits declare your preferred candidate to be the more honest one, I'd suggest you talk with an open mind to people who support his opponent, ask them to make the contrary case, and try to fairly consider the merits of their arguments.
Ruth Marcus: This is a fair point, and nicely stated without the usual accusations of bad faith that go along with such comments, so I appreciate it. All I can say is that I do try very hard to keep that phenomenon in mind and do my best to call it fairly. I have taken, btw, quite a bit of heat from Democrats I know for giving too much leeway to McCain over the months because--so they argue--I cut him a break based on my admiration for him.
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Washington: I will probably vote for Obama, but I do like Palin -- though I differ with her on most significant issues. Still, I like her. She's got a good persaonlity and she wants to lead. We see that. Something that works against her is that, because everything 99.9 percent of us are learning about her is new, it makes a much bigger imprint on our brains than if we already had known the person for years and years, though we might not have known about every single incident in that person's life. For those people we've known many years, we care less about those incidents because the overall impression already has been formed.
Ruth Marcus: Sure--we're taking a crash course in Sarah Palin, every data point feels like a huge one.
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Olney, Md.: I do not believe that Sen. McCain's approach to "taxing" health care has the net effect of a tax increase. Replacing the employee-based system also will involve a tax credit, which helps the poor more than the rich, because it is not based on your highest tax bracket. And actually, right now, I have to pay taxes at the end of the year on a part of my employer's health insurance payment, so all Sen. McCain can do is help. And I hate to say it, but as usual, liberals distortions are usually treated by the press as fact. Here is the text right from his web page:
"While still having the option of employer-based coverage, every family will receive a direct refundable tax credit -- effectively cash -- of $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families to offset the cost of insurance. Families will be able to choose the insurance provider that suits them best and the money would be sent directly to the insurance provider. Those obtaining innovative insurance that costs less than the credit can deposit the remainder in expanded Health Savings Accounts."
Ruth Marcus: It has the net effect of a tax increase on some people, especially those with gold-plated health insurance. But as I said, I think it is, in combination with other changes, a change in the right direction.
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San Francisco: So, do you think your column today might be a little premature? What with Obama promising to get tougher and more ferocious in his response, and then releasing an ad mocking McCain's age, or mocking the fact that he doesn't send e-mails (which is more because the North Vietnamese broke his fingers as opposed not knowing how), it seems he's ready descend from what ever moral high ground he might have occupied...
Ruth Marcus: The great thing about writing a column--you always get to do another one the next week. So I have taken both candidates to task in the past and expect to do more in the future.
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Seattle: It was nice to hear in your column that you are ready to give up the false equivalencies of balance in discussing partisan politics in this country, but I have to ask, why now? Surely you must have detected the same false equivalencies back in 2000 or even before. In the past couple election cycles, the GOP has relied on this very tendency toward balance (and the Democrats' tendency towards less-aggressive efforts to twist facts) relentlessly. Is the difference that Gore and Kerry were less likeable? That we didn't expect better from Bush? What is it?
Ruth Marcus: Um, this is the first election -- presidential election --in which I've written a regular column?
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Rudy, Md.: Why did The Washington Post run a 2,500-word, front-page story last week on the painkiller addiction of Cindy McCain, who is not running for president, yet The Post has an official "off-limits" policy on asking any tough or meaningful questions about Barack Obama's admitted heavy use of cocaine, marijuana and alcohol? Why the blatant double standard?
Ruth Marcus: You'll have to ask the news side about that story, although I think that admitted addiction is different from admitted use. As to Obama's "heavy use"--I don't know about any off-limits policy, official or otherwise, but we are talking about college.
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Rudy, Md.: Why did The Washington Post run a 2,500-word, front-page story last week on the painkiller addiction of Cindy McCain, who is not running for president, yet The Post has an official "off-limits" policy on asking any tough or meaningful questions about Barack Obama's admitted heavy use of cocaine, marijuana and alcohol? Why the blatant double standard?
Ruth Marcus: You'll have to ask the news side about that story, although I think that admitted addiction is different from admitted use. As to Obama's "heavy use"--I don't know about any off-limits policy, official or otherwise, but we are talking about college.
Ruth Marcus: You'll have to ask the news side about that story, although I think that admitted addiction is different from admitted use. As to Obama's "heavy use"--I don't know about any off-limits policy, official or otherwise, but we are talking about college.
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Los Angeles: I must say, I've been an investment banker for 20 years, and I too, like the previous questioner from New York, was struck by the fact that Paulson turned down a deal with only $40 billion of Fed exposure on Sunday, and took a far worse deal just two days later. Hank Paulson is not a stupid man, but this scenario suggests that Paulson terribly miscalculated how much leverage he had with Goldman and J.P. Morgan. Understand that if Paulson had made this kind of deal while at Goldman, he would have lost his job.
It seems obvious to me that Paulson was willing to let AIG fail as of Sunday evening, consistent with his prior statements that there would be no more bailouts. Something happened between Sunday evening and Tuesday afternoon, and the economic news doesn't explain Paulson's shift (Paulson certainly was not surprised by the extent of Monday's selloff on Wall Street). I don't think anyone is making a "serious assertion," as you put it. I'm suggesting that policital considerations had a very big impact on the margins of this transaction. Do you disagree?
Ruth Marcus: Boy, I'm just not that cynical, and I'm pretty cynical. You mean Bernanke just went along for the ride to thank GWB for appointing him?
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Minneapolis: Isn't Obama in a no-win position on attacking McCain? If he doesn't attack McCain, then the media complains he's not attacking (just as they did during the primaries versus Hillary). If he does attack McCain, then he's just another politician. Haven't the media put Obama in a box on this issue?
Ruth Marcus: Or he--and McCain--put themselves in a box.
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Kingston, Ontario: Ms. Marcus, my gut tells me that McCain's real reason for wanting to be president is that he wants to go to war in order to restore American honor. That's why his statements on domestic and economic issues are so careless. Is that unfair?
Ruth Marcus: Yes. I don't think he "wahts to go to war."
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"The very small number who have incomes in excess of $250,000": What's the income cutoff for us single people? We always get the short end of the stick.
Ruth Marcus:$200,000.
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Philadelphia: When Sarah Palin was picked to run for vice president, there were reports she had admitted smoking mariquana in her past. Was this a false Internet rumor, or has the been squashed, as it might upset the Moral Majority base if they knew about this? If it is true, I find it interesting how outraged some were when Bill Clinton said he did it, yet these same people are silent when it is Sarah Palin.
Ruth Marcus: Haven't seen that, but given her age, it wouldn't be surprising--or particularly interesting.
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Richmond, Va.: I haven't heard anyone state the obvious (if not politically correct) fact that this is McCain's last shot at the presidency, as he is somewhat up there in age. Of course he's going for broke, even if that means means making crap up or flip-flopping on every position he ever has held. Obama can stay a little more in on track because he obviously isn't as desperate in terms of not having another kick at the can. This is McCain's last kick, as it were.
Ruth Marcus: Oh, I don't know about that. I mean, yes, his last shot, but I'm not sure that would lead him to, as you say, go for broke.
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Philadelphia: I'm just going to be helpful about point out to San Francisco (who wrote "and then releasing an ad mocking McCain's age, or mocking the fact that he doesn't send e-mails (which is more because the North Vietnamese broke his fingers as opposed not knowing how)") that one doesn't actually need fingers to use a computer. Many years ago voice-recognition software was developed, so many people with disabilities -- people who are blind, people who might be missing limbs, people who can't use their hands, etc. -- still are able to compose, send, receive and read e-mail. Broken fingers may have been a reason to avoid computers back in the early 1980s, but not anymore.
I hate seeing that lie about his being unable to use a computer because of broken fingers repeated because it suggests that people who aren't "normal" are "handicapped" and unable to join in common daily activities. Anyway, my late grandfather, whose fingers were badly broken in World War II and who went without proper medical care for much longer than is recommended, managed to e-mail his friends and family just fine using a regular keyboard up until he died at age 84.
Ruth Marcus: For the record, I thought that was a stupid Obama ad, even leaving aside the question of whether/why McCain can't type or whether he knows how to use a computer. It's part of the trivialization of issues that has become such a disappointing aspect of this campaign.
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St. Louis: Ms. Marcus, is it the media's duty to be adversarial to government? This has been the underlying belief of most citizens. When a political party accuses the media of bias, it is incumbent on the media to proceed as they were, regardless of the complaint.
Ruth Marcus: I think I'd favor the word skeptical rather than adversarial. Not hostile, but not blindly accepting. And I think that it's incumbent on us not to be cowed into silence or to overreact the other way when we're criticized.
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Re: AIG Bailout: To the New York commentor, I would just like to point out that Paulson and Bernake didn't give AIG the money, we loaned it to them at 11 percent interest in return for a 79.9 percent stake in their company. The U.S. government now essentially, owns AIG for two years. Yes, if the assets fall through, taxpayers will be on the line, but this is pretty far from a straight bailout. A lot of executives and stockholders lost a lot of paper wealth for the actions and risk-taking.
Ruth Marcus: Well, tell me another place they could have gotten tha loan.
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Sewickley, Pa.: When the Clinton administration raised taxes on upper incomes, the "Club for Growth" types warned the economy would surely go into a recession, if not an all-out depression. Instead, investors, consumers and businesses saw the country on a trajectory toward a balanced budget and their confidence soared. The stock market went from 4,000 to 10,000 and the economy created more than 20 million new private-sector jobs. The Bush economy has produced about 3.5 million new private-sector jobs, the market is in the tank, and the financial sector is hanging by a taxpayer-funded thread. Do you think Sen. Obama will be able to articulate our economic history as well as President Clinton did?
Ruth Marcus: Please read with a tone of wry humor: I think the person who has the greatest appreciation of, and ability to relate, the economic accomplishments of the Clinton administration is... President Clinton
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I thought that was a stupid Obama ad: How would you have brought up the point that McCain doesn't use a computer, nor, it seems, has any interest in learning? I find it a salient and troubling issue, especially with regards to our current economy, which is relying more and more on computer-based information systems. How do you explain "social networking" to someone who doesn't even e-mail?
Ruth Marcus: I wouldn't have brought it up. I don't find it particularly salient.
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Bel Air, Md.: The way the topic is phrased -- "why should we believe that McCain would be an honest president" -- is interesting. Obviously you are going to follow up tomorrow or next week with another column and discussion session on "why should we believe that Obama would be an honest president."
Ruth Marcus: If/when there is a basis for that. Please see the column that I wrote about Sen. Obama's flip-flop on taking federal funding for the general election campaign.
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Minneapolis: The fact that Obama sometimes attacks McCain doesn't mean that Obama is just another politician, does it? Just as it's false to say that Obama will raise your taxes because he has advocated some limited tax increases, engaging in some attacks against his opponent doesn't negate the fact that Obama is indeed many ways different than the typical politician.
Ruth Marcus: I think that's a false comparison. If you say you're not going to engage in low-road politics, then every time you deviate from high road it becomes notable.
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Boston: For the record, the New York Times did a big article about Obama's drug use during the primary season ... it fizzled because none of his friends really remembered him doing drugs -- there was speculation that he may have hyped it up a little in his book.
Ruth Marcus: Thanks for noting that.
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washingtonpost.com: When a Flop Isn't a Flop (Post, July 2)
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Orono, Maine: Besides honesty in office, the recent actions of the McCain campaign make me wonder how they would react to Congress and others seeking to find out what they have done. There is essentially a constitutional crisis now in Alaska, with the Palin-appointed Attorney General advising legislators and others not to comply with legal subpoenas on Troopergate. Michael Isakoff reported that this comes from a legal strategy crafted by the McCain campaign. Can we expect some questions and more press attention to this very important issue? We've lived through a period when the president tried to be immune from questions and investigation, and I would like to see more discussion about what McCain and Obama would do in office.
Ruth Marcus: Interesting post, it definitely bears some thinking about.
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Falls Church, Va.: I read your column today. As a journalist, I felt that you could have been unbiased and mentioned true whoppers from the Obama camp as well. And for that reason, you project to be the same as the rest of the media that doesn't practice honest reporting or provide substantial opinions.
washingtonpost.com: True Whoppers (Post, Sept. 17)
Ruth Marcus: Well, I tried to mention some that I considered whoppers. But my point was that McCain's whoppers seem bigger to me.
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Ruth Marcus: Well, thanks, as always, for the great questions. I'll be back in two weeks--and given the velocity of the news, hard to imagine what might be happening by then. I look forward to talking about it, whatever it turns out to be.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
In a Tight Race, Interest Groups Step Up
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG and MICHAEL LUO; Jim Rutenberg reported from Washington, and Michael Luo from New York.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 23
LENGTH: 1016 words
WASHINGTON -- After largely staying on the sidelines, the types of independent groups that so affected the 2004 presidential campaign are flooding back as players in the final sprint to the election this fall, financing provocative messages on television, in mailboxes and through the Internet.
MoveOn, a progressive group started a decade ago, says it will double its advertising budget to $7 million and start a campaign this week that ties the Republican presidential nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, to lobbyists.
The Service Employees International Union has begun a $2.1 million advertising campaign that criticizes Mr. McCain's economic record, while a smattering of smaller liberal groups are testing out more limited television campaigns, including one by two groups -- Brave New PAC and Democracy for America -- that asserts his experience as a prisoner of war ''is not a good prerequisite'' to be president.
The Minutemen, a group calling for stricter border security, has filed paperwork with election officials reporting that it is running mailers against Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the Democratic nominee for president.
An anti-abortion group, BornAliveTruth.org, announced Monday it would begin running an advertisement against Mr. Obama in New Mexico and Ohio that features a woman who survived a botched abortion.
And the American Issues Project, a conservative group whose main backer is a major fund-raiser for Mr. McCain, said it was considering whether to expand its efforts beyond its existing advertisement that links Mr. Obama to the 1960s radical William Ayers Jr.
Hewing to their reformist themes, the McCain and Obama campaigns initially tried to discourage such activities on their behalf. But as the race has intensified in its closing weeks, the campaigns have increasingly turned a blind eye to the activities of these groups, which sometimes operate outside campaign finance rules and with little accountability.
The activities have led aides to both candidates to trade accusations that the other is secretly behind the new attacks by the independent groups. Campaign watchdogs are on the lookout for whether the activities run afoul of election laws that prohibit coordination between the groups and the campaigns.
Citing changes to the rules that make it easier for outside groups to advertise right up to Election Day, political advertising analysts predicted that the new efforts would be the start of a crescendo of attacks.
''I think in the next two weeks you are going to see a lot more of these coming out of the woodwork,'' said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which monitors expenditures on advertising. ''They want to get messages out there that are the most disruptive politically, and the closer you are to Election Day the more disruptive you are by definition.''
Mr. Tracey said he doubted that the efforts, many of them at their nascent stages, would come anywhere near matching the level of activity in 2004. So far this year, the outside groups have spent roughly a tenth of the $75 million that their predecessors had at this point four years ago on television advertising. Then, most flocked to help the campaign of the Democratic nominee that year, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, when it was short of cash.
The leaders of the groups say their donors and members have stepped up their efforts because polls suggest the race has gotten closer and become increasingly dominated by harsh exchanges between the campaigns.
Eli Pariser, the executive director of MoveOn, said he decided to step up the group's advertising plans after donations rose significantly when Mr. McCain decided to pick as his running mate Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, a social conservative whose addition to the ticket gave Mr. McCain a boost in several public polls.
''We're just following our members' mandate,'' Mr. Pariser said.
MoveOn's membership has grown to 4.2 million from 3.2 million in the past year, largely because of the popularity of Mr. Obama's candidacy. The group is also planning to spend $4 million on voter registration efforts in swing states, focusing on young voters.
Other Democratic strategists said that donors' fears about how the Obama campaign might react to an independent media effort had faded amid what they believed to be more encouraging signals from Obama officials, as well as a growing sense of urgency as the race has tightened.
Steve Phillips, the president of PowerPAC.org, an independent group that supported Mr. Obama in the Democratic primary, said it was moving ahead with plans for a $10 million effort focused on turning out black and Latino voters. Mr. Phillips is also talking to others about an outside media effort that attacks Mr. McCain.
''There is another set of conversations going on about advertising -- and around hard-hitting advertising, frankly,'' he said. ''A lot of people want to hit back hard.''
Mike Lux, a Democratic political consultant, and Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, are leading another set of discussions on the left about supporting an outside effort. The pair convened a conference call last week for potential donors to discuss where they might funnel their money, specifically encouraging a focus on older white women.
Similar activity continues on the right, with new donors like Raymond Ruddy -- a former supporter of Mitt Romney, who sought the Republican nomination this year -- kicking in $350,000 for the advertisement against Mr. Obama on abortion by BornAliveTruth.org.
One of the largest groups, American Issues Project, received its initial $2.8 million from the financier Harold Simmons, who, aside from raising tens of thousands of dollars for Mr. McCain, also financed the anti-Kerry group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
The group's president, Ed Martin, said that donations continued to come in and that his group was weighing its options as it contemplated its final moves.
''Certainly there's going to be a lot of action down the stretch, and we want to be part of it,'' Mr. Martin said. ''It's not like the election isn't close.''
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LOAD-DATE: March 23, 2011
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: A new advertisement from the group MoveOn that ties Senator John McCain to lobbyists.(PHOTOGRAPH BY MOVEON)
An anti-abortion group, BornAliveTruth.org, plans to advertise in New Mexico and Ohio.(PHOTOGRAPH BY BORNALIVETRUTH.ORG)
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The New York Times
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
In Candidates, 2 Approaches To Wall Street
BYLINE: By JACKIE CALMES; Reporting was contributed by Kitty Bennett, Michael Luo, Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1497 words
WASHINGTON -- The crisis on Wall Street will leave the next president facing tough choices about how best to regulate the financial system, and although neither Senator Barack Obama nor Senator John McCain has yet offered a detailed plan, their records and the principles they have set out so far suggest they could come at the issue in very different ways.
On the campaign trail on Monday, Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, struck a populist tone. Speaking in Florida, he said that the economy's underlying fundamentals remained strong but were being threatened ''because of the greed by some based in Wall Street and we have got to fix it.''
But his record on the issue, and the views of those he has always cited as his most influential advisers, suggest that he has never departed in any major way from his party's embrace of deregulation and relying more on market forces than on the government to exert discipline.
While Mr. McCain has cited the need for additional oversight when it comes to specific situations, like the mortgage problems behind the current shocks on Wall Street, he has consistently characterized himself as fundamentally a deregulator and he has no history prior to the presidential campaign of advocating steps to tighten standards on investment firms.
He has often taken his lead on financial issues from two outspoken advocates of free market approaches, former Senator Phil Gramm and Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman. Individuals associated with Merrill Lynch, which sold itself to Bank of America in the market upheaval of the past weekend, have given his presidential campaign nearly $300,000, making them Mr. McCain's largest contributor, collectively.
Mr. Obama sought Monday to attribute the financial upheaval to lax regulation during the Bush years, and in turn to link Mr. McCain to that approach.
''I certainly don't fault Senator McCain for these problems, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to,'' Mr. Obama told several hundred people who gathered for an outdoor rally in Grand Junction, Colo.
Mr. Obama set out his general approach to financial regulation in March, calling for regulating investment banks, mortgage brokers and hedge funds much as commercial banks are. And he would streamline the overlapping regulatory agencies and create a commission to monitor threats to the financial system and report to the White House and Congress.
On Wall Street's Republican-friendly turf, Mr. Obama has outraised Mr. McCain. He has received $9.9 million from individuals associated with the securities and investment industry, $3 million more than Mr. McCain, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a watchdog group. His advisers include Wall Street heavyweights, including Robert E. Rubin, the former treasury secretary who is now a senior adviser at Citigroup, another firm being buffeted by the financial crisis.
If many voters are fuzzy on the events that over the weekend forced Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch & Company to be swallowed by the Bank of America Corporation, the continuing chaos among the most venerable names in American finance -- coming on top of the recent government seizure of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the demise of the Bear Stearns Companies -- has stoked their anxiety for the economy, the foremost issue on voters' minds.
So it was that first Mr. Obama and then Mr. McCain rushed out their statements on Monday morning before most Americans had reached their workplaces.
To the extent that travails on Wall Street and Main Street have both corporations and homeowners looking to Washington for a hand, that helps Mr. Obama and his fellow Democrats who see government as a force for good and business regulation as essential. Yet Mr. McCain has sold himself to many voters as an agent for change, despite his party's unpopularity after years of dominating in Washington, and despite his own antiregulation stances of past years.
Mr. McCain was quick on Monday to issue a statement calling for ''major reform'' to ''replace the outdated and ineffective patchwork quilt of regulatory oversight in Washington and bring transparency and accountability to Wall Street.'' Later his campaign unveiled a television advertisement called ''Crisis,'' that began: ''Our economy in crisis. Only proven reformers John McCain and Sarah Palin can fix it. Tougher rules on Wall Street to protect your life savings.''
Mr. McCain's reaction suggests how the pendulum has swung to cast government regulation in a more favorable political light as the economy has suffered additional blows and how he is scrambling to adjust. While he has few footprints on economic issues in more than a quarter century in Congress, Mr. McCain has always been in his party's mainstream on the issue.
In early 1995, after Republicans had taken control of Congress, Mr. McCain promoted a moratorium on federal regulations of all kinds. He was quoted as saying that excessive regulations were ''destroying the American family, the American dream'' and voters ''want these regulations stopped.'' The moratorium measure was unsuccessful.
''I'm always for less regulation,'' he told The Wall Street Journal last March, ''but I am aware of the view that there is a need for government oversight'' in situations like the subprime lending crisis, the problem that has cascaded through Wall Street this year. He concluded, ''but I am fundamentally a deregulator.''
Later that month, he gave a speech on the housing crisis in which he called for less regulation, saying, ''Our financial market approach should include encouraging increased capital in financial institutions by removing regulatory, accounting and tax impediments to raising capital.''
Yet Mr. McCain has at times in the presidential campaign exhibited a less ideological streak. As he did on Monday, he from time to time speaks in populist tones about big corporations and financial institutions and presents himself as a Theodore Roosevelt-style reformer. He supported the Bush administration's decision to seize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants, and he has backed as unavoidable the promise of taxpayer money to help contain the financial crisis.
Other than Mr. Gramm, who as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee before his leaving Congress in 2002 worked to block efforts to tighten financial regulation, Mr. McCain's closest adviser on matters of Wall Street is John Thain, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch, who has raised about $500,000 for Mr. McCain. Unlike Mr. Gramm, Mr. Thain has a reputation as a pragmatic, nonideological, moderate Republican. That the men are Mr. McCain's touchstones is typical of his small and eclectic mix of advisers, making it hard to generalize about how Mr. McCain would act as president.
A prominent McCain supporter, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, signaled how Mr. McCain would try to make his antiregulation record fit the proregulation times that the next president will inherit. Mr. Pawlenty suggested in an interview on Fox News that, given the danger that ''any future administration'' would go too far, Mr. McCain would be the safer bet to protect against ''excessive government intervention or excessive government regulation.''
Mr. Obama also does not have much of a record on financial regulation. As a first-term senator, he has not been around for the major debates of recent years, and his eight years in the Illinois Senate afforded little opportunity to weigh in on the issues.
In March 2007, however, he warned of the coming housing crisis, and a year later in a speech in Manhattan he outlined six principles for overhauling financial regulation.
On Monday, he said the nation was facing ''the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression,'' and attributed it on the hands-off policies of the Republican White House that, he says, Mr. McCain would continue. Seeking to showcase Mr. Obama's concerns, his campaign said Mr. Obama led a conference call on the crisis early Monday that included Paul A. Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve; Mr. Rubin; and his successor as treasury secretary, Lawrence H. Summers.
Later, citing Mr. McCain's remarks about the economy's strong fundamentals, he told a Colorado crowd that Mr. McCain ''doesn't get what's happening between the mountain in Sedona where he lives and the corridors of power where he works.''
One reason for both men's sketchy records on financial issues is that neither has been a member of the Senate Banking Committee, which has oversight of the industry and its regulators. Under both parties' leadership, the committee often has been a graveyard for proposals opposed by lobbyists for financial institutions, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which last week were forced into government conservatorships.
Industry lobbyists' success in killing such regulations meant senators outside the banking panel did not have to take a stand on them.
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LOAD-DATE: March 23, 2011
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: (PHOTOGRAPH BY THE NEW YORK TIMES
PHOTOGRAPH BY KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS)
As the candidates addressed the economy on Monday, John McCain, in Florida, pointed to greed on Wall Street, and Barack Obama, in Colorado, linked problems to lax regulation in Washington.(PHOTOGRAPH BY GERARDO MORA/GETTY IMAGES)
(PHOTOGRAPH BY EMMANUEL DUNAND/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE -- GETTY IMAGES)(pg. A24) CHART: CHARTS: Stocks fell sharply Monday as investors tried to digest the turmoil on Wall Street. Henry M. Paulson Jr., above, the Treasury secretary, said the financial system was sound. Chart details line graph for DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Its finances deteriorating, Merrill Lynch is being bought by Bank of America. Chart details line graph for MERRILL LYNCH
Investors reacted to the deal by driving down Bank of America's stock price. Chart details line graph for BANK OF AMERICA (Source: Bloomberg)
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The New York Times
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; TODAY IN BUSINESS; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 520 words
A DAY OF HUGE LOSSES Investors experienced their deepest losses since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks of 2001, while government officials battled to keep the financial crisis from growing.
HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN? How can it even be possible that we woke up on a Monday morning to discover that Lehman Brothers is bankrupt and that Merrill Lynch has been sold to Bank of America? Talking Business: Joe Nocera. [A23.]
THE CANDIDATES RESPOND The Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, says it was good for the government not to bail out Lehman and vows to update the financial regulatory system, while the Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, seizes on the crisis to highlight lax regulation. [A1.]
HELP FOR A.I.G. People briefed on the matter are saying that the Federal Reserve has asked JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs to lend the giant insurance company American International Group up to $75 billion to help prop it up. Gov. David A. Paterson, left, of New York announced that the state would allow A.I.G. to borrow $20 billion from its subsidiaries. [C1.]
BLEAK DAY AT LEHMAN Lehman's bankruptcy filing ignited events around the globe that will play out for months as creditors lined up, employees awaited word on paychecks and benefits and Lehman's counterparties rushed to limit their exposure. [C1.]
NEW PAIN FOR CREDIT MARKETS Credit markets that have been in turmoil for more than a year suffered anew as prices of credit default swaps and of Treasury bills rose sharply. [C7.]
PAINFUL CHANGE AHEAD Many experts forecast a period of difficult change for Wall Street after the last 72 hours. [C1.]
THE ACQUISITION IT WANTED On Friday, Kenneth D. Lewis, chief executive of the Bank of America Corporation, walked away from a Lehman acquisition because the government would not safeguard buyers from possible losses. On Saturday, he had a new goal: Merrill Lynch. [C9.]
RUSH BY LEHMAN CREDITORS A worldwide battle has begun over the remains of Lehman Brothers as the biggest bankruptcy filing in history sent creditors scrambling to protect their investments. [C8.]
ADVICE FOR CONSUMERS Despite the market turmoil, it almost never makes sense to sell everything or to stop contributing to a 401(k) in the hope that you will know when the market has hit bottom. But beyond that? [C6.]
THE MAYOR'S ROLE Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's close ties to Wall Street, forged over decades as a trader and as the billionaire head of the financial data company Bloomberg L.P. gave the New York mayor an unusual view into the unfolding financial crisis and a role in its resolution. [C6.]
OIL PRICES FALL BACK Oil prices have fallen under the symbolic $100-a-barrel, but oil and gasoline prices are moving in opposite directions. [C10.]
CHANGING PERCEPTION The collapse of an American titan like Lehman Brothers has made Europeans think about what it portends for the union's own increasingly global financial institutions. [C7.]
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DROPS Government data shows the nation's industrial output plunged in August by nearly four times the amount that had been expected. [C12.]
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The New York Times
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
In Spanish, McCain Criticizes Obama on Immigration
BYLINE: By JIM RUTENBERG
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 634 words
Senator John McCain's campaign began running this advertisement on Spanish language television stations in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico over the weekend.
PRODUCER McCain media team.
SCRIPT (As translated by The New York Times) A male announcer says: ''Obama and his allies in Congress say they are on the side of immigrants, but they're not. Reports in the press say that their efforts were like 'poison pills' that caused immigration reform to fail. The results: 'No' to the guest workers program; 'no' to a path to citizenship, 'no' to secure borders. The reform didn't pass. Is that being on our side? Obama and his Congressional allies -- ready to block immigration reform, but not ready to govern.''
ON THE SCREEN The spot switches among montages of Mr. Obama and Senate Democrats -- Harry Reid of Nevada; Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont -- and Hispanic-looking voters and hazy images of federal buildings as onscreen writing flashes statements like ''De Nuestro Lado?'' ( ''On our side?'').
ACCURACY The bill in question, which died in 2007, would have overhauled the nation's immigration rules by creating a temporary worker program, a ''pathway to citizenship'' for illegal workers already here and provisions to tighten border security. Members of both parties took the blame for introducing amendments that ultimately killed the carefully developed compromise based upon an initial bill that Mr. McCain had helped draft. Before its fate was sealed, President Bush, who was pushing hard for its passage, directed much of his rhetoric against Republican opponents who dismissed it as ''amnesty.''
Mr. Obama did support several Democratic provisions that were among those ultimately blamed for undermining it. He introduced an (ultimately losing) amendment curtailing a proposal to award green cards based on a point system that valued education and job skills more than mere family ties. And he joined with most of the Senate Democrats to support an amendment supported by labor groups and widely viewed as harming the bill by limiting the guest worker program at its core.
The key votes, however, came from four Republicans who initially voted against the amendment but switched sides at the 11th hour, they said, to destroy the broader bill. Mr. Obama did face some accusations of political expediency for siding with labor on a provision that was not favored by the Democrats who had forged the fragile, bipartisan compromise.
Still, after the bill's failure, Senator Mel Martinez, Republican of Florida and a major backer of the bill, thanked Mr. Obama for his help, saying in a note that it ''meant a lot to me personally.'' And in May 2006, Mr. McCain complimented Mr. Obama for his ''commitment to this issue,'' and for ''working to ensure this bill moved successfully intact through the legislative process.'' Mr. McCain, however, said during a Republican primary debate in late January that if the legislation came back for a vote he would not support it because, ''We know what the situation is today -- people want the borders secured first.''
SCORECARD Mr. McCain was one of the more outspoken early voices for the liberalization of the immigration system, a fact he played down through the primary season that should now play well with Hispanic audiences. And any voters who carefully followed the debate would know that Mr. Obama was generally supportive of the legislation and that Republicans took much of the blame for its failure. Mr. McCain trails among traditionally Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters and his chances for victory will increase greatly if he can draw more of them into his column. But the spot could prove helpful to Mr. McCain among less informed, undecided Spanish-speaking voters looking for reasons to vote Republican this year.
JIM RUTENBERG
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USA TODAY
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Candidates pin blame in financial 'crisis';
But rivals don't agree on causes of Wall St. woes
BYLINE: David Jackson
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 540 words
WASHINGTON -- Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain called Monday for tougher oversight of Wall Street while arguing over the causes of what both called a financial "crisis."
Republican McCain blamed "self-interest, greed, irresponsibility and corruption" at the top of the U.S. financial system. Democrat Obama cited GOP economic policies that he said favor the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.
"It's a philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise," Obama said while campaigning in Grand Junction, Colo.
Obama also blasted McCain for saying "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." The Illinois senator said it shows his Republican opponent is out of touch. McCain said he was referring to the skills and productivity of U.S. workers. "We are going to reform the way Wall Street does business," McCain said during a town-hall-style meeting in Orlando.
The campaigns reshuffled their messages Monday after the collapse of two Wall Street giants. Lehman Bros. declared bankruptcy, while Merrill Lynch merged with Bank of America.
Mark Bloomfield, president of the American Council for Capital Formation, a think tank, said the candidates are not traditional members of their parties: McCain advocates more regulation of big business than many Republicans, while Obama is more free-market-oriented than other Democrats.
"They are backing the Federal Reserve and the Treasury and the economic policymakers on stepping in as they have stepped in to date," he said.
McCain's campaign released an ad, called "Crisis," that advocates "tougher rules on Wall Street to protect your life savings." Obama senior economic adviser Austan Goolsbee said McCain has "no record" on financial regulatory issues, adding Obama's plan is "to set the rules of the road and re-establish public trust" in financial markets.
Both candidates opposed any sort of taxpayer bailout of Lehman Bros. Both traced the overall problems of the financial system to the housing crisis, including a record number of foreclosures due to faulty loans.
Obama has proposed a federal definition of mortgage fraud, with money for state and federal prosecution of offenders. He has also proposed requiring a specific schedule for borrowers of what they owe and when they need to pay.
McCain economic adviser Carly Fiorina said his goal is "to require more transparency and more accountability," to help lenders and borrowers. McCain has also called for increasing required down payments for home purchasers, so they will have more equity invested.
Both campaigns protested the patchwork of federal regulatory agencies over financial institutions, such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Maya MacGuineas, director of fiscal policy with the non-partisan New America Foundation, said both candidates have made sensible suggestions. The question is what the new regulations may look like, she said, and both candidates may be wise to avoid getting too specific at this point. "The danger here is that this process gets politicized instead of leaving it up to experts," she said. "You want this to be technically driven, not politically driven."
Contributing: Richard Wolf
*Staggering failures, 1A
LOAD-DATE: September 16, 2008
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The Washington Post
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
Met 2 Edition
Economy Becomes New Proving Ground For McCain, Obama
BYLINE: Dan Balz and Robert Barnes; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A01
LENGTH: 1270 words
Yesterday's meltdown on Wall Street brought the economy roaring back to the center of the presidential campaign, and the question for the final seven weeks of the general-election campaign is whether Barack Obama or John McCain can convince voters that he is capable of leading the country out of the morass.
McCain faces the bigger challenge. As the Republican nominee, he must answer for what has happened on President Bush's watch and offer a plausible explanation for why his conservative administration would be genuinely different. Obama already is attacking him as ill-equipped to deal with the financial crisis and has aggressively moved to tie a future McCain administration to a lobbyist-dominated Washington culture.
Obama's challenge is different. He begins with the reality that Democrats are seen as the party that is more trusted to deal with the economy. Despite that, he has struggled through much of the year to develop a compelling economic message. Where he remains suspect is on the strength of his leadership and his ability to connect with working- and middle-class voters.
McCain is playing on those qualms in his counterattacks.
Even before yesterday's bad news, the economy was the top issue on voters' minds. But over the past two weeks, other issues -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin being the most obvious -- have dominated the political discussion. That phase of the campaign may have ended.
The debate will now probably shift back to fundamentals. Whom will voters trust to lead the country out of this problem and whom do they believe has a credible plan for doing so? What matters now is how McCain and Obama respond to the latest evidence of an economy still struggling to overcome the damage inflicted by the real estate and home mortgage crises.
Neither has truly won the confidence of voters, and yesterday neither offered fresh ideas about how to deal with what has become a mess of huge proportions.
By McCain's own admission, the economy is not his natural turf, and his comments yesterday seemed less than sure-footed. At his first event of the day, he acknowledged that the economy is in difficult straits and promised to shake up Washington and Wall Street. But he also said he still thinks that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."
The Obama campaign pounced on those words, saying they showed McCain to be "disturbingly out of touch" with the reality that everyday Americans face. At a rally in Grand Junction, Colo., Obama wondered: "What economy are you talking about?" The comments also seemed at odds with McCain's new television commercial that declares an economic crisis.
By the time the Republican nominee had made the short flight to Orlando for a town hall meeting, his campaign had e-mailed reporters new remarks he would deliver. They seemed a 180-degree turn. If McCain's earlier comments had seemed designed to reassure, his new ones were dire. "The American economy is in a crisis -- in a crisis," he repeated.
Obama has been under pressure from Democrats, nervous about McCain's post-convention rise in the polls, to refocus his campaign message on the economy. Campaigning in Colorado, he described the recent series of events as "the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression" and accused Washington and Wall Street of failures.
"I certainly don't fault Senator McCain for these problems," he said. "But I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. It's the same philosophy we've had for the last eight years -- one that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else."
Obama accused McCain of embracing a philosophy that has opposed tougher regulations -- "one that says we should just stick our heads in the sand and ignore economic problems until they spiral into crises." McCain's campaign accused Obama of embracing "pessimism, defeatism and weakness" in questioning the Republican's praise of the ingenuity and vitality of American workers and charged that an Obama administration would mean higher taxes and burdensome regulation just when the economy can least afford it.
"Everything that's been happening in the last week and a half reminds voters what's at stake in this election," Democratic pollster Peter Hart said. "Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac -- they all may sound like arcane terminology to the voters. But in the end they know it's about housing, about the ability to invest in new ideas, and it's about holding on to jobs."
As a result, voters will be looking for more than accusations and boilerplate from the two nominees. "How the candidates respond to this will be critical to Americans' assessment of whether they're ready for the job," Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said in an e-mail. "In the big picture of this campaign, this issue is a 'jump ball.' "
That the issue of the economy is anywhere close to even between the candidates is remarkable. Given that Republicans have controlled the White House for the past eight years and that the normal advantage Democrats hold as the party best able to handle the economy, Obama ought to have a clear edge over McCain.
The Democratic nominee does score higher than his rival on the economy, but not by as much as he should, which is why Democratic strategists have been urging his campaign to refocus its message on the economy and to do so more forcefully.
In a memo issued over the weekend, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg concluded that by emphasizing a reform message aimed at shaking up Washington, McCain and Palin had managed to draw even with Obama on who would stand up to special interests in Washington, narrow the gap between the two tickets on the economy and diminish the importance of economic issues as the most significant driver of voters' decisions.
Greenberg predicted in a telephone interview that the economy "will soar as a voting issue" because of the huge shocks that have hit Wall Street. "It will force the discussion to a very serious thing -- not that Palin is frivolous -- but I think now people want to know where McCain and Obama are going to take the country."
The challenge for McCain and Obama is to help people understand what has happened. The shocks have come from many directions this year. The mortgage crisis and the wave of foreclosures hit from one direction. Rising world oil prices -- and with them higher prices at the gas pump and for the coming winter's supply of home heating oil -- seemingly came from another.
Added to that is the collapse of financial giants, beginning with the bailout of Bear Stearns and continuing through Sunday's decision not to bail out Lehman Brothers. These financial market meltdowns have both symbolic and real effects on average Americans, even if they cannot understand exactly what has happened or why.
President Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke are on the front lines of this crisis now, but come January, McCain or Obama will be in charge. They have less than 50 days to demonstrate they're capable of dealing with it.
Howard Wolfson, who was communications director for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's Democratic primary campaign, described the financial meltdown as a "3 a.m. moment" for Wall Street. "Will either candidate offer an explanation of the problem and a plan to fix it that will reassure voters and break through the din?" he asked.
After all the uproar and chatter of the past two weeks, the campaign may be heading back to fundamentals.
Barnes, traveling with McCain, reported from Florida. Michael D. Shear in Washington contributed to this report.
LOAD-DATE: September 16, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Gerardo Mora -- Getty Images; Sen. John McCain discusses the economy during a visit to the Asociación Borinqueña de Florida Central in Orlando.
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The Washington Post
September 16, 2008 Tuesday
Suburban Edition
Obama Ad on Lobbying Turns Past Into Present
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A04
LENGTH: 489 words
"John McCain's chief adviser lobbies for oil companies, even from Russia and China. His campaign manager lobbies for corporations outsourcing American jobs."
Barack Obama "It's Over" television ad
The McCain campaign has taken a lot of heat from the fact-checking community over the last week for deceptive, at times dishonest, campaign ads. But the Obama campaign is hardly immune from criticism about misleading advertising. A good example: a couple of ads that slam the Republican nominee for employing lobbyists while insisting that "it's over" for the special interests.
THE FACTS
Obama's "It's Over" ad flashes a photograph of McCain adviser Charlie Black across the screen with a voice-over claiming that he "lobbies for oil companies, even from Russia and China." Next up is a photograph of campaign manager Rick Davis with the claim that he "lobbies for corporations outsourcing American jobs."
Asked to provide support for these claims, the Obama campaign pointed to Senate records showing that Black had lobbied for a Chinese state-owned oil company, CNOOC, between July and August 2005. Senate filings show that Black lobbied for the Russian oil company Yukos in 2004. It also cited a 2004 newspaper report stating that Davis had lobbied for a telecommunications company called SBC that outsourced some jobs to India.
Excuse me, but verb tenses matter.
"Lobbies" and "lobbied" or "has lobbied" carry different meanings. I took McCain to task in May when he claimed that "we have drawn down to pre-surge levels" in Iraq. It turned out that he was speaking prematurely: The full drawdown was still a couple of months away. The McCain campaign offered the "verb tense defense" to justify the senator's claim, ridiculing the distinction between "have" and "will" as a "matter of semantics."
It is fair for the Obama campaign to draw attention to the fact that McCain is surrounded by advisers who "have lobbied" for special interests in the past. (The McCain camp points out that some of Obama's advisers are also former lobbyists.) Use of the present tense is out of bounds, however.
The McCain campaign, in the person of former lobbyist Rick Davis, issued a blanket directive on May 15 stating that "no person working for the campaign may be a registered lobbyist or foreign agent, or receive compensation for any such activity." The directive was a belated response to criticism on the role played by lobbyists, such as Black, in the campaign. Black told The Washington Post in February that he was conducting his lobbying business by phone from the McCain campaign bus, the famous "Straight Talk Express."
But that was then. Black stepped down from his position at the lobbying firm BKSH and Associates in March.
THE PINOCCHIO TEST
I awarded the McCain campaign three Pinocchios for mixing up its verb tenses over the Iraq surge in May. Consistency demands the same verdict for Barack Obama.
THREE PINOCCHIOS: Significant factual errors
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Dissecting the Negatives
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THE AD
John McCain: I will not take the low road to the highest office in this land.
Narrator: What's happened to John McCain? He's running the sleaziest ads ever. Truly vile. Dishonest smears that he repeats even after it's been exposed as a lie. The truth be damned. A disgraceful, dishonorable campaign. After voting with Bush 90 percent of the time, proposing the same disastrous economic policies. It seems deception is all he has left.
ANALYSIS
This Barack Obama commercial relies almost entirely on harsh media criticism of John McCain's ads, and most of the citations are from liberal sources, such as Time columnist Joe Klein, Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne, Washington Monthly blogger Steve Benen and the New Republic. This is a classic technique of using third-party citations to validate a candidate's argument. And while a casual viewer might get the impression that Time and The Post are running news stories calling McCain's ads sleazy and disgraceful, the columnists' last names are shown in small type.
Recent media accounts have said that McCain is using more frequent and serious falsehoods than the Illinois senator, but fact-check efforts have found occasional distortions in Obama ads, as well.
This is the second spot in less than a week in which Obama has gone aggressively negative against McCain. A previous ad said McCain is out of touch and can't even use a computer, despite the fact that his old war injuries make it difficult for him to type for any length of time.
This commercial attempts to use the criticism of McCain's advertising to raise questions about his policy proposals. It is true that the Arizona senator has voted with President Bush 90 percent of the time and supports some of the same economic policies, such as extending the president's tax cuts. But McCain has differed on some Bush policies, such as supporting greater financial regulation.
Whether this kind of attack will move votes is open to question, since voters have grown accustomed to candidates accusing each other of making false claims.
Video of this ad is at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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The Trail
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TROOPER PROBE
Palin 'Unlikely' to Talk to Prosecutor
ANCHORAGE -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is unlikely to meet with a special prosecutor looking into whether she or other state officials improperly pushed to punish a trooper, a spokesman for John McCain's presidential campaign announced Monday.
Since Palin was named McCain's running mate, the campaign has dismissed the state legislature's investigation of her dismissal of the state's director of public safety, saying that Democrats are exploiting the probe for political gain.
McCain campaign spokesman Ed O'Callaghan said that Palin is "unlikely to cooperate" with the investigation, which he called "tainted."
Palin's husband, Todd, was subpoenaed in the probe last week. O'Callaghan said he did not know whether Todd Palin would challenge that.
Sarah Palin has said she fired Walter Monegan over disagreements about budget priorities. Monegan says he received repeated e-mails and phone calls from both Palins and her staff expressing dismay over the continued employment of state trooper Mike Wooten, whose divorce from Sarah Palin's sister was ugly.
Todd Palin and 12 other people were subpoenaed Friday by a joint committee, made up of three Republicans and two Democrats, after prosecutor Stephen Branchflower said that someone may have attempted to deny workers' compensation benefits to Wooten.
No subpoena was sought or issued for the governor. When the investigation was announced less than two months ago, Palin said she welcomed it and promised her full cooperation.
The decisive vote in the committee's 3 to 2 decision was cast by Charlie Huggins, a Republican state senator from the Palins' home town of Wasilla. He explained his vote by saying: "I say let's just get the facts on the table; the sooner the better."
After McCain named Palin to the GOP national ticket, her supporters urged lawmakers to turn the Wooten matter over to the three-member State Personnel Board, which is appointed by the governor and charged with handling ethics complaints.
One lawmaker complained earlier this month that state Sen. Hollis French, the Anchorage Democrat overseeing the investigation, appears to be steering the investigation "in a manner that will have maximum partisan political impact on the national and state elections."
French said last night: "The McCain campaign seems to have forgotten that this began with a unanimous vote by eight Republicans and four Democrats to begin an investigation."
-- Karl Vick
PRIORITIES
Palin's List Includes Energy
GOLDEN, Colo. -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin outlined the priorities she would pursue as vice president should the GOP win the election this fall. Speaking before a boisterous crowd of a couple of thousand supporters at the Jefferson County Fairgrounds, Palin addressed the unfolding financial crisis on Wall Street, saying Washington has "been asleep at the switch, and ineffective."
"John McCain and I are going to put an end to the mismanagement and abuses in Washington and on Wall Street. It must be the market that the American people and investors everywhere can trust. This is going to be one of the highest priorities of our administration," she added.
Palin then revealed that she and McCain had agreed on three areas that she would focus on if he is elected president: energy, government reform and supporting "families with special needs."
-- Juliet Eilperin
IMMIGRATION
Ad: Democrats Made Reform Fail
The McCain campaign has begun airing a new Spanish-language television commercial in the battleground states of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico that lays the failure of comprehensive immigration reform at the feet of Barack Obama and his Democratic colleagues -- despite the fact that Obama supported the bipartisan John McCain-Edward Kennedy efforts to enact such reforms and voted for their final proposal last year.
"Obama and his congressional allies say they are on the side of immigrants," the ad's announcer says in Spanish in the spot, released Friday. "But are they? The press reports that their efforts were 'poison pills' that made immigration reform fail. The result: No guest-worker program. No path to citizenship. No secure borders. No reform. Is that being on our side? Obama and his congressional allies: Ready to block immigration reform, but not ready to lead."
-- Ed O'Keefe
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IMAGE; By Rick Wilking -- Reuters; Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in Golden, Colo., yesterday.
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Ad Calls McCain's Campaign 'Dishonorable';
Obama on Offensive To Regain Traction
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Sen. Barack Obama's campaign accused Sen. John McCain of running a "disgraceful, dishonorable campaign" in an advertisement launched Monday as the Democratic nominee vowed to leave no attack unanswered in the final weeks of the race for the White House.
Obama's running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., also mocked McCain, saying he was making the same promises to enact change as George W. Bush had offered in 2000 but failed to deliver on. Biden also joined in accusing McCain of shameful tactics, saying he no longer recognized his longtime friend.
"When Senator McCain was subjected to unconscionable, scurrilous attacks in his 2000 campaign, I called him on the phone to ask what I could do," Biden told a crowd of about 800 in Michigan. "And now, some of the very same people and the tactics he once deplored his campaign now employs."
After a string of tactical successes by McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, over the past two weeks, the Obama campaign sought to regain its footing on Monday. The shift followed a series of internal meetings, including a rare Sunday evening session at the campaign's Chicago headquarters that Obama attended.
Advisers reinforced the division of labor in the days ahead: Obama will articulate the campaign's broader message of "change" and outline how the Democratic ticket will govern, while Biden will deliver attacks against the GOP ticket, drawing on his 30-year-old relationship with McCain to undercut the Arizona senator's standing, especially among working-class voters.
But with a spate of new polls showing a very competitive race and with McCain and Palin drawing big crowds at appearances in battleground states, Obama will also take a consistently tougher line, as he did here Monday.
Appearing in front of an estimated 13,500 people at the state fairgrounds, Obama delivered a revised stump speech that centered largely on his mantra of change and took some tough shots at McCain. Accusing McCain of employing "politics that would divide this country just to win an election," Obama said the Republican had let "lies and spin consume a campaign that should be about you, should be about the issues, the great challenges of our time." He slammed McCain for saying he would reduce the influence of lobbyists in Washington, noting that the Republican has several former lobbyists in the upper echelons of his campaign.
If you believe that, Obama said, "Let me tell you, I've got a bridge to sell you up in Alaska."
And the Democrat -- using the word "change" over and over during his address -- said McCain has suddenly adopted Obama's message after running for months on experience. "For the last 19 months, he has argued that we don't need change, that what qualifies him to be president is the quarter-century he has been in Washington, the experience that comes from decades walking the halls of power," Obama said.
"But now, suddenly, John McCain says he's about change, too. He's even started using our lines. . . . He even put out an ad today -- get this -- that says Governor Palin and he would bring, and I quote, the change that we need," Obama said, drawing laughter from the crowd. "That sound familiar?"
Earlier in the day, after the Illinois senator made similar remarks at a stop in western Colorado, McCain pushed back. "Friends, Senator Obama's been saying some pretty nasty things about me and Governor Palin," McCain said. "That's okay; he can attack if he wants. All the insults in the world aren't going to bring change to Washington, and they're not going to change Senator Obama's record."
The Obama campaign is seeking to address a range of festering problems, including the candidate's persistent underperformance among female voters, especially the older ones. It rolled out a women's outreach effort Monday, led by scores of prominent female entrepreneurs, athletes and politicians, including former secretary of state Madeleine K. Albright, cosmetics entrepreneur Bobbi Brown and Yahoo! Inc. President Sue Decker.
The women will act as surrogates for Obama, advocating his support for issues such as equal pay, expansion of family leave and reduction of health care costs. Prominent women also are flooding the airwaves on Obama's behalf, including Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Govs. Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), a former Hillary Rodham Clinton backer.
But Obama's most aggressive advocate will be Biden, who will spend the coming weeks seeking to deflate McCain before audiences of working-class voters.
"Eight years ago, a man ran for president who claimed he was different, not a typical Republican. He called himself a reformer. He admitted that his party, the Republican Party, had been wrong about things from time to time. He promised to work with Democrats and said he'd been doing that for a long time," Biden told the group in Michigan.
"That candidate was George W. Bush. Remember that?" Biden said. "Eight years later, we have another Republican nominee who's telling us the exact same thing: This time it will be different, it really will. This time he's going to put country before party, to change the tone, reach across the aisle, change the Republican Party, change the way Washington works."
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September 16, 2008 Tuesday 1:38 PM EST
Sen. Obama Speaks In Golden, Col. on the Economy
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HIGHLIGHT: OBAMA: Over the last few days, we have seen clearly what's at stake in this election. The news from Wall Street has shaken the American people's faith in our economy. The situation with Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions is the latest in a wave of crises that have generated tremendous uncertainty about the future of our financial markets. This is a major threat to our economy and its ability to create good-paying jobs and help working Americans pay their bills, save for their future, and make their mortgage payments.
OBAMA: Over the last few days, we have seen clearly what's at stake in this election. The news from Wall Street has shaken the American people's faith in our economy. The situation with Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions is the latest in a wave of crises that have generated tremendous uncertainty about the future of our financial markets. This is a major threat to our economy and its ability to create good-paying jobs and help working Americans pay their bills, save for their future, and make their mortgage payments.
Since this turmoil began over a year ago, the housing market has collapsed. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be effectively taken over by the government. Three of America's five largest investment banks failed or have been sold off in distress. Yesterday, Wall Street suffered its worst losses since just after 9/11. We are in the most serious financial crisis in generations. Yet Senator McCain stood up yesterday and said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong
A few hours later, his campaign sent him back out to clean up his remarks, and he tried to explain himself again this morning by saying that what he meant was that American workers are strong. But we know that Senator McCain meant what he said the first time, because he has said it over and over again throughout this campaign -- no fewer than 16 times, according to one independent count.
Now I certainly don't fault Senator McCain for all of the problems we're facing, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. Because the truth is, what Senator McCain said yesterday fits with the same economic philosophy that he's had for 26 years. It's the philosophy that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down. It's the philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise. It's a philosophy that lets Washington lobbyists shred consumer protections and distort our economy so it works for the special interests instead of working people.
We've had this philosophy for eight years. We know the results. You feel it in your own lives. Jobs have disappeared, and peoples' life savings have been put at risk. Millions of families face foreclosure, and millions more have seen their home values plummet. The cost of everything from gas to groceries to health care has gone up, while the dream of a college education for our kids and a secure and dignified retirement for our seniors is slipping away. These are the struggles that Americans are facing. This is the pain that has now trickled up.
So let's be clear: what we've seen the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed. And I am running for President of the United States because the dreams of the American people must not be endangered any more. It's time to put an end to a broken system in Washington that is breaking the American economy. It's time for change that makes a real difference in your lives.
If you want to understand the difference between how Senator McCain and I would govern as President, you can start by taking a look at how we've responded to this crisis. Because Senator McCain's approach was the same as the Bush Administration's: support ideological policies that made the crisis more likely; do nothing as the crisis hits; and then scramble as the whole thing collapses. My approach has been to try to prevent this turmoil. In February of 2006, I introduced legislation to stop mortgage transactions that promoted fraud, risk or abuse. A year later, before the crisis hit, I warned Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke about the risks of mounting foreclosures and urged them to bring together all the stakeholders to find solutions to the subprime mortgage meltdown. Senator McCain did nothing.
Last September, I stood up at NASDAQ and said it's time to realize that we are in this together -- that there is no dividing line between Wall Street and Main Street -- and warned of a growing loss of trust in our capital markets. Months later, Senator McCain told a newspaper that he'd love to give them a solution to the mortgage crisis, "but" -- he said -- "I don't know one."
In January, I outlined a plan to help revive our faltering economy, which formed the basis for a bipartisan stimulus package that passed the Congress. Senator McCain used the crisis as an excuse to push a so-called stimulus plan that offered another huge and permanent corporate tax cut, including $4 billion for the big oil companies, but no immediate help for workers.
This March, in the wake of the Bear Stearns bailout, I called for a new, 21st century regulatory framework to restore accountability, transparency, and trust in our financial markets. Just a few weeks earlier, Senator McCain made it clear where he stands: "I'm always for less regulation," he said, and referred to himself as "fundamentally a deregulator."
This is what happens when you confuse the free market with a free license to let special interests take whatever they can get, however they can get it. This is what happens when you see seven years of incomes falling for the average worker while Wall Street is booming, and declare -- as Senator McCain did earlier this year -- that we've made great progress economically under George Bush. That is how you can reach the conclusion -- as late as yesterday -- that the fundamentals of the economy are strong.
Well, we have a different way of measuring the fundamentals of our economy. We know that the fundamentals that we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great --that America is a place where you can make it if you try.
Americans have always pursued our dreams within a free market that has been the engine of our progress. It's a market that has created a prosperity that is the envy of the world, and rewarded the innovators and risk-takers who have made America a beacon of science, and technology, and discovery. But the American economy has worked in large part because we have guided the market's invisible hand with a higher principle -- that America prospers when all Americans can prosper. That is why we have put in place rules of the road to make competition fair, and open, and honest.
Too often, over the last quarter century, we have lost this sense of shared prosperity. And this has not happened by accident. It's because of decisions made in boardrooms, on trading floors and in Washington. We failed to guard against practices that all too often rewarded financial manipulation instead of productivity and sound business practices. We let the special interests put their thumbs on the economic scales. The result has been a distorted market that creates bubbles instead of steady, sustainable growth; a market that favors Wall Street over Main Street, but ends up hurting both.
Let me be clear: the American economy does not stand still, and neither should the rules that govern it. The evolution of industries often warrants regulatory reform - to foster competition, lower prices, or replace outdated oversight structures. Old institutions cannot adequately oversee new practices. Old rules may not fit the roads where our economy is leading. But instead of sensible reform that rewarded success and freed the creative forces of the market, too often we've excused an ethic of greed, corner-cutting and inside dealing that threatens the long-term stability of our economic system.
It happened in the 1980s, when we loosened restrictions on Savings and Loans and appointed regulators who ignored even these weaker rules. Too many S&Ls took advantage of the lax rules set by Washington to gamble that they could make big money in speculative real estate. Confident of their clout in Washington, they made hundreds of billions in bad loans, knowing that if they lost money, the government would bail them out. And they were right. The gambles did not pay off, our economy went into recession, and the taxpayers ended up footing the bill. Sound familiar?
And it has happened again during this decade, in part because of how we deregulated the financial services sector. After we repealed outmoded rules instead of updating them, we were left overseeing 21st century innovation with 20th century regulations. When subprime mortgage lending took a reckless and unsustainable turn, a patchwork of regulators systematically and deliberately eliminated the regulations protecting the American people and failed to raise warning flags that could have protected investors and the pensions American workers count on.
This was not the invisible hand of the market at work. These cycles of bubble and bust were symptoms of the ideology that my opponent is running to continue. John McCain has spent decades in Washington supporting financial institutions instead of their customers. In fact, one of the biggest proponents of deregulation in the financial sector is Phil Gramm -- the same man who helped write John McCain's economic plan; the same man who said that we're going through a "mental recession"; and the same man who called the United States of America a "nation of whiners." So it's hard to understand how Senator McCain is going to get us out of this crisis by doing the same things with the same old players.
Make no mistake: my opponent is running for four more years of policies that will throw the economy further out of balance. His outrage at Wall Street would be more convincing if he wasn't offering them more tax cuts. His call for fiscal responsibility would be believable if he wasn't for more tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, and more of a trillion dollar war in Iraq paid for with deficit spending and borrowing from foreign creditors like China. His newfound support for regulation bears no resemblance to his scornful attitude towards oversight and enforcement. John McCain cannot be trusted to reestablish proper oversight of our financial markets for one simple reason: he has shown time and again that he does not believe in it.
What has happened these last eight years is not some historical anomaly, so we know what to expect if we try these policies for another four. When lobbyists run your campaign, the special interests end up gaming the system. When the White House is hostile to any kind of oversight, corporations cut corners and consumers pay the price. When regulators are chosen for their disdain for regulation and we gut their ability to enforce the law, then the interests of the American people are not protected. It's an ideology that intentionally breeds incompetence in Washington and irresponsibility on Wall Street, and it's time to turn the page.
Just today, Senator McCain offered up the oldest Washington stunt in the book -- you pass the buck to a commission to study the problem. But here's the thing -- this isn't 9/11. We know how we got into this mess. What we need now is leadership that gets us out. I'll provide it, John McCain won't, and that's the choice for the American people in this election.
History shows us that there is no substitute for presidential leadership in a time of economic crisis. FDR and Harry Truman didn't put their heads in the sand, or hand accountability over to a Commission. Bill Clinton didn't put off hard choices. They led, and that's what I will do. My priority as President will be the stability of the American economy and the prosperity of the American people. And I will make sure that our response focuses on middle class Americans -- not the companies that created the problem.
To get out of this crisis -- and to ensure that we are not doomed to repeat a cycle of bubble and bust again and again -- we must take immediate measures to create jobs and continue to address the housing crisis; we must build a 21st century regulatory framework, and we must pursue a bold opportunity agenda that creates new jobs and grows the American economy.
To jumpstart job creation, I have proposed a $50 billion Emergency Economic Plan that would save 1 million jobs by rebuilding our infrastructure, repairing our schools, and helping our states and localities avoid damaging budget cuts.
I worked with leaders in Congress to create a new FHA Housing Security Program, which will help stabilize the housing market and allow Americans facing foreclosure to keep their homes at rates they can afford. Going forward, we need to replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as we know them with a structure that is focused on helping people buy homes -- not engaging in market speculation. We can't have a situation like the old S&L scandal where its "heads" investors win, and "tails" taxpayers lose. That's going to take ending the lobbyist- driven dominance of these institutions that we've seen for far too long in Washington.
To prevent fraud in the mortgage market, I've proposed tough penalties on fraudulent lenders, and a Home Score system that will ensure consumers fully understand mortgage offers and whether they'll be able to make payments. To help low- and middle-income families, I will ease the burden on struggling homeowners through a universal homeowner's tax credit. This will add up to a 10 percent break off the mortgage interest rate for 10 million households. That's another $500 each year for many middle class families.
Unlike Senator McCain, I will change our bankruptcy laws to make it easier for families to stay in their homes. Right now, if you're a family that owns one house, bankruptcy judges are actually barred from helping you keep a roof over your head by writing down the value of your mortgage. If you own seven homes, the judge is free to write down any or all of the debt on your second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh homes. Now that may be of comfort to Senator McCain, but that's the kind of out-of-touch Washington loophole that makes no sense. When I'm President, we'll make our laws work for working people.
But as we've seen the last few days, the crisis in our financial markets now reaches well beyond the housing market. That's why it's time to do what I called for last September and again this past March -- and it is only more overdue today.
Our capital markets cannot succeed without the public's trust. It's time to get serious about regulatory oversight, and that's what I will do as President. That starts with the core principles for reform that I discussed at Cooper Union.
First, if you're a financial institution that can borrow from the government, you should be subject to government oversight and supervision. When the Federal Reserve steps in as a lender of last resort, it is providing an insurance policy underwritten by the American taxpayer. In return, taxpayers have every right to expect that financial institutions with access to that credit are not taking excessive risks.
Second, we must reform requirements on all regulated financial institutions. We must strengthen capital requirements, particularly for complex financial instruments like some of the mortgage securities and other derivatives at the center of our current crisis. We must develop and rigorously manage liquidity risk. We must investigate rating agencies and potential conflicts of interest with the people they are rating. And we must establish transparency requirements that demand full disclosure by financial institutions to shareholders and counterparties. As we reform our regulatory system at home, we must address the same problems abroad so that financial institutions around the world are subject to similar rules of the road.
Third, we need to streamline our regulatory agencies. Our overlapping and competing regulatory agencies cannot oversee the large and complex institutions that dominate the financial landscape. Different institutions compete in multiple markets - Washington should not pretend otherwise. A streamlined system will provide better oversight and reduce costs.
Fourth, we need to regulate institutions for what they do, not what they are. Over the last few years, commercial banks and thrift institutions were subject to guidelines on subprime mortgages that did not apply to mortgage brokers and companies. This regulatory framework failed to protect homeowners, and made no sense for our financial system. When it comes to protecting the American people, it should make no difference what kind of institution they are dealing with.
Fifth, we must crack down on trading activity that crosses the line to market manipulation. The last six months have shown that this remains a serious problem in many markets and becomes especially problematic during moments of great financial turmoil. We cannot embrace the administration's vision of turning over the protection of investors to the industries themselves. We need regulators that actually enforce the rules instead of overlooking them. The SEC should investigate and punish market manipulation, and report its conclusions to Congress.
Sixth, we must establish a process that identifies systemic risks to the financial system like the crisis that has overtaken our economy. Too often, we end up where we are today: dealing with threats to the financial system that weren't anticipated by regulators. We need a standing financial market advisory group to meet regularly and provide advice to the President, Congress, and regulators on the state of our financial markets and the risks they face. It's time to anticipate risks before they erupt into a full-blown crisis.
These six principles should guide the legal reforms needed to establish a 21st century regulatory system. But the change we need goes beyond laws and regulation. Financial institutions must do a better job at managing risks. There is something wrong when boards of directors or senior managers don't understand the implications of the risks assumed by their own institutions. It's time to realign incentives and CEO compensation packages, so that both high level executives and employees better serve the interests of shareholders.
Finally, the American people must be able to trust that their government is looking out for all of us - not the special interests that have set the agenda in Washington for eight years, and the lobbyists who run John McCain's campaign.
I've spent my career taking on lobbyists and their money, and I've won. If you wanted a special favor in Illinois, there was actually a law that let you give campaign cash to politicians for their own personal use. In the State House, they called it business- as-usual. I called it legalized bribery, and while it didn't make me the most popular guy in Springfield, I put an end to it.
When I got to Washington, we saw some of the worst corruption since Watergate. I led the fight for reform in my party, and let me tell you -- not everyone in my party was too happy about it. When I proposed forcing lobbyists to disclose who they're raising money from and who in Congress they're funneling it to, I had a few choice words directed my way on the floor of the Senate. But we got it done, and we banned gifts from lobbyists, and free rides on their fancy jets. And I am the only candidate who can say that Washington lobbyists do not fund my campaign, they will not run my White House, and they will not drown out the voices of the American people when I am President of the United States. That's how we're going to end the outrage of special interests tipping the scales.
The most important thing we must do is restore opportunity for all Americans. To get our economy growing, we need to recapture that fundamental American promise. That if you work hard, you can pay the bills. That if you get sick, you won't go bankrupt. That your kids can get a good education, and that we can leave a legacy of greater opportunity to future generations.
That's the change the American people need. While Senator McCain likes to talk about change these days, his economic program offers nothing but more of the same. The American people need more than change as a slogan-- we need change that makes a real difference in your life.
Change means a tax code that doesn't reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it. I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America. I will eliminate capital gains taxes for small businesses and start-ups -- that's how we'll grow our economy and create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.
I will cut taxes -- cut taxes -- for 95% of all working families. My opponent doesn't want you to know this, but under my plan, tax rates will actually be less than they were under Ronald Reagan. If you make less than $250,000 a year, you will not see your taxes increase one single dime. In fact, I offer three times the tax relief for middle-class families as Senator McCain does -- because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.
I will finally keep the promise of affordable, accessible health care for every single American. If you have health care, my plan will lower your premiums. If you don't, you'll be able to get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves. And I will stop insurance companies from discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most
I will create the jobs of the future by transforming our energy economy. We'll tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I'll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I'll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I'll invest 150 billion dollars over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy -- wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can't ever be outsourced
And now is the time to finally meet our moral obligation to provide every child a world-class education, because it will take nothing less to compete in the global economy. I'll recruit an army of new teachers, and pay them higher salaries and give them more support. But in exchange, I will ask for higher standards and more accountability. And we will keep our promise to every young American -- if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford a college education.
This is the change we need -- the kind of bottom up growth and innovation that will advance the American economy by advancing the dreams of all Americans.
Times are hard. I will not pretend that the changes we need will come without cost -- though I have presented ways we can achieve these changes in a fiscally responsible way. I know that we'll have to overcome our doubts and divisions and the determined opposition of powerful special interests before we can truly reform a broken economy and advance opportunity.
But I am running for President because we simply cannot afford four more years of an economic philosophy that works for Wall Street instead of Main Street, and ends up devastating both.
I don't want to wake up in four years to find that more Americans fell out of the middle-class, and more families lost their savings. I don't want to see that our country failed to invest in our ability to compete, our children's future was mortgaged on another mountain of debt, and our financial markets failed to find a firmer footing.
This time -- this election -- is our chance to stand up and say: enough is enough!
We can do this because Americans have done this before. Time and again, we've battled back from adversity by recognizing that common stake that we have in each other's success. That's why our economy hasn't just been the world's greatest wealth generator -- it's bound America together, it's created jobs, and it's made the dream of opportunity a reality for generation after generation of Americans.
Now it falls to us. And I need you to make it happen. If you want the next four years looking just like the last eight, then I am not your candidate. But if you want real change -- if you want an economy that rewards work, and that works for Main Street and Wall Street; if you want tax relief for the middle class and millions of new jobs; if you want health care you can afford and education so that our kids can compete; then I ask you to knock on some doors, and make some calls, and talk to your neighbors, and give me your vote on November 4th. And if you do, I promise you -- we will win Colorado, we will win this election, and we will change America together.
END
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September 16, 2008 Tuesday 1:30 PM EST
Election 2008: Economy's Impact on Politics and Policy
BYLINE: Glenn Kessler, Washington Post Diplomacy Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2224 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post diplomacy reporter Glenn Kessler, who has written extensively on the economy and has helped cover the 2008 presidential campaigns, was online Tuesday, Sept. 16 at 1:30 p.m. ET to discuss the latest economic problems in the United States and their potential impacts on politics and policy before Election Day.
Washington Post diplomacy reporter Glenn Kessler, who has written extensively on the economy and has helped cover the 2008 presidential campaigns, was online Tuesday, Sept. 16 at 1:30 p.m. ET to discuss the latest economic problems in the United States and their potential impacts on politics and policy before Election Day.
The transcript follows.
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Glenn Kessler: Okay, I'm here. Let's get the questions started.
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Fairfax, Va.: I am a stock holder and insurance customer of AIG. At this point, I have sadly come to grips with the loss of principal on the stock. However, I have two 20-year term life insurance policies. If AIG folds, are these just worthless as well? I got them prior to turning 40, and it will be substantially more to get a new policy now at 45. Am I just stuck? Thanks for any thoughts.
Glenn Kessler: Sorry to hear about your stock investment. But your insurance policies should be fine. AIG has massive assets that will likely ensure that insurance customers get paid. AIG's problem stems from another part of its business, known as credit default swaps, a kind of insurance contract tied to corporate defaults. IF AIG collapses, I would assume the traditional insurance business -- and the assets that back it -- would be purchased by another insurance company.
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Reston, Va.: Hi Glenn. Given the short-term vision the voting public seems to have with respect to saving for retirement, do you think the current market turbulence will kill any discussions of private Social Security accounts, even if enrollment would be optional?
Glenn Kessler: Certainly the idea gained a lot of currency when the market was going up. But President Bush was abandoned by his own party when he tried to push it hard at the start of his second term. Eventually, lawmakers are going to have to deal with the long-term financing problems of Social Security. I imagine they will use traditional approaches, though I could imagine private accounts being introduced as an add-on, not a replacement for traditional Social security.
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Oviedo, Fla.: I'm a lifelong Democrat (writing in Hillary Clinton this year) and wonder how true to their promises about tax cuts the candidates can be. Is it really up to them to do this by fiat -- can't they get vetoed along the way? They each have promises that sound like "done deals," but they aren't. Right? Explain the process, please. I love your work -- you're brilliant.
Glenn Kessler: Thanks for the compliment. All of these plans and promises should be viewed only as a guide for the general inclination of the potential president. There is no done deal. First of all, circumstances change. (Neither candidate has updated their proposals to account for the huge new federal deficits annoounced this month.) Second, you need to get any tax bill passed in the House and then the Senate. If the Democrats gain even more seats in Congress, McCain would have real trouble cutting taxes across those board as he has promised. Even with those extra seats, Obama might have to accept tax cuts for people making above $250,000 in order to get past a Senate filibuster by Republicans. So take all of those promises with a huge grain of salt.
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Anonymous: I've seen Democrats blaming Bush for the banking collapse and Republicans blaming Clinton for the same. Obviously it's far more complicated than one president's fault, but just for fun, who of those two would you say is more to blame? (Or would you stick it on the current or former Democratic majority in Congress or the Republican majority that came between those two?)
Glenn Kessler: Presidents (and Congresses) often get blame or credit for things that they had little to do with. And Wall Street has been adept at inventing new products that blow up in their faces every few years, after everyone has gotten a bit too greedy. But the crisis happened on this president's watch, and it seems the administration was slow to respond it -- though Hank Paulson is certainly making up for lost time. Bush's first two Treasury secretaries had no Wall Street experience; Paulson, by contrast, was the former head of Goldman Sachs, possibly Wall Street's best-run firm.
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Northville, N.Y.: What a load of rubbish coming out of Washington. The GOP mantra since Reagan has been "get the government off our backs" and "get rid of excess regulation." Well, we sure did it. McCain's chief economic adviser, Phil Gramm, who could have been Secretary of the Treasury if McCain wins, was the king of banking deregulation, and McCain himself had a savings and loan scandal years ago that would have killed off the political career of a non-war hero. Sure, some of the Democrats were in on it as well, but who is kidding who? Like the Iraq War, this is a GOP show, based on their political and anti-government regulation economic philosphy. This is the chickens coming home to roost, and we need more New Deal regulation.
Glenn Kessler: I'm posting this comment to generate discussion. Thanks for the input!
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Silver Spring, Md.: Is there a regulatory device in place to keep AIG from selling some of the assets that back up its insurance business to buoy other parts of the business? Or perhaps I misunderstood your response to the first question of the chat. Thanks.
Glenn Kessler: I am no insurance expert, but I believe those assets are required to be there by the insurance regulators. There are strict regulations on moving those assets around. New York State this week indicated that it may allow AIG to move harder-to-sell assets to back insurance claims, allowing it to free up tradeable assets for the parent company to borrow against as it seeks to come up with cash.
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Implications of Lehman's Bankruptcy: Given that they filed for Chapter 11, how much of the Lehman Brothers' assets now are either 100 percent worthless or paying out pennies on the dollar? What are the longer-term implications of so much wealth disappearring into thin air?
Glenn Kessler: The stock is worthless. In bankruptcy, ordinary shareholders get paid after bondholders and preferred stock holders, which means they almost always get nothing. However, you will be able to write off the loss against any gains you may have recorded during the tax year.
As for the implications, people feel poorer and are less likely to buy or invest.
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Washington: What do you think the political shelf-life of the situation with Lehman, Merrill Lynch and Wall Street will be?
Glenn Kessler: With just 50 or so days before the election, I think this will be one of the main themes of the final weeks. I make no gurantees about the political shelf life after the election!
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Sedona, Ariz.: Are the fundamentals of our economy still strong?
Glenn Kessler: Someone with a sense of humor! I bet McCain doesn't ever say this again...
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Long Beach, Calif.: Thanks for taking my question. I spent 17 years at major New York Stock Exchange member firms out here on the West Coast. My experience is that these messes (like the Savings and Loan crisis) take years of gestation time, the erosion of regulatory scrutiny by government through a combination of de-regulatory legislation, followed by loose regulating (intentional or not).
This leads to a feeding frenzy within the financial industry, with all participants smiling and winking at risk until the weight of problems tip the boat over. Would you say that describes the process this time around? What government regulators were looking the other way with a wink while the feeding frenzy was going on? Or was it just that the mortgage industry figured out that Fannie and Freddie weren't minding the store, and would buy any junk mortgages they bundled up and sent over?
Glenn Kessler: This is a very astute observation. In the 25 years since I first started writing about Wall Street, I have witnessed the insider trading crisis, the Savings & Loan crisis, the junk bond crisis, the program-trading crisis, the emerging market crisis, the derivatives crisis, the leveraged buyout crisis ... and now this. There is just too much money to be made too quickly, and people can get very greedy--and regulators and lawmakers are among the last to figure out what is going on.
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Columbia, Md.: Northville, Glass Steagall was repealed in 1999, supplanted by Gramm's act -- but a Democratic president signed it. So I think blame is equally laid.
Glenn Kessler: The repeal of Glass Steagall has little to do with the current situation. Mortgage backed securities were created before the repeal, and the development of the subprime market was a natural outgrowth as investment firms became bolder and cut more corners.
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Southwest Nebraska: McCain and Palin have both been talking about how regulatory agencies need reform. What have they done to promote watch dog activities as a senator or governor?
Glenn Kessler: I am not sure about Palin. McCain is generally known as a deregulator, and has proudly called himself that in the past. He did vote for the Sarbannes-Oxley Act that imposed new accounting standards on corporations, however.
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Re: Implications: The main thrust of my question was more: How much worse is it going to get now that a bunch of paper backed by Lehman Brothers' assets is now just a bunch of paper? Are we talking a cascade of worse news, or did the market's 500-point drop yesterday purge a lot of it?
Glenn Kessler: We will have to see whether the fallout continues as Lehman's assets are unwound. But I would keep my eye now on whether AIG fails; Lehman is old news.
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Northern Virginia: I read about and liked Obama's speech on financial regulation back in March and was mad that, in the rush of primary politics (and without something like Rev. Wright's video clips to propel it), it got so much less coverage than the race speech. To what extent does his speech of a few months ago apply to this crisis? Or did it have a broader focus?
Glenn Kessler: That speech is certainly relevant, and my guess is people will now look back at it to see what he proposed and whether it still makes sense in the current context.
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Austin, Texas: A lot of people have said that this is the most serious problem on Wall Street since the '20s. Even Greenspan -- not an excitable sort -- said it was the sort of thing that happens once or twice a century. So why do you suppose the Dow currently is up 14 points or so and apparently holding pretty steady?
Glenn Kessler: I think today is a holding pattern -- in part to see what the Federal Reserve does at its meeting today. One day's trading never tells the story; you need to look over a period of many months.
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Mt. Laurel, N.J.: I was wondering if you could explain what is different between the Bear Stearns situation and the Lehman Brothers situation, per Henry Paulson's recent comments? Thank you for any light you can throw.
Glenn Kessler: Treasury helped fund the purchase of Bear Stearns because it felt that its failure would be too much of a shock to the financial system. Paulson is guessing that the failure of Lehman was anticipated by the market and thus is not such a shock. He wanted to draw the line somewhere, especially after the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We will see if his bet pays off.
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Cedar Crest, N.M.: Regarding the "fundamentals," McCain backtracked and said the fundamentals are the working men and women, the small business owners and entrepreneurs. Is this a common use of the term "fundamentals of our economy"? When I think of "fundamentals", I think about the unemploymnet/inflation rates, the budget deficit, trade deficit, durable goods orders, etc. ... Who is right -- McCain or me?
Glenn Kessler: No, that's just spin. Politically, McCain's comment was quite damaging, and he's trying to recover.
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Austin, Texas: Paraphrasing: "Private accounts might be introduced as an add-on to, not replacement for, Social Security." Isn't that what IRAs are?
Glenn Kessler: Yes, but these would be funded with some government money. Even some Democrats who have been wary of privatizing Social Security have supported this concept. The problem is...where to get the money!
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The repeal of Glass-Steagall has little to do with the current situation.: Why is this? I thought Glass-Steagall would have kept Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, etc., out of the mortgage business.
Glenn Kessler: No, they were already in the business of buying mortgages and packing them into securities--in fact, it was a Wall Street invention which commercial banks loved because it took the mortgages off their books.
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Glenn Kessler: Thanks for all of the questions. There are dozens I did not have time to answer, so I thank you for your enthusiasm. I have to get back to work!
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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September 16, 2008 Tuesday 1:00 PM EST
Opinion Focus
BYLINE: Eugene Robinson, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 1895 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post opinion columnist Eugene Robinson was online Tuesday, Sept. 16 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss his recent columns and the latest news.
Washington Post opinion columnist Eugene Robinson was online Tuesday, Sept. 16 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss his recent columns and the latest news.
Discussion Group: Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood
The transcript follows.
Archive: Eugene Robinson discussion transcripts
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Eugene Robinson: Hello, everyone, and welcome. Today I'm guessing we'll talk about politics and the economy. Somehow, lipstick doesn't seem to be such a burning issue. This morning's column, for reference, was about Sarah Palin's passing acquaintance with the truth.
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Oz (or so it seems): Mr. Robinson, while reading your column this morning, it struck me that the American presidency is one of the only jobs in America that one can get in spite (or because of?) falsifying one's resume. If one made false claims on her resume in applying for, say, a managerial or academic or medical or legal position, then she (presuming she was caught) surely would not get the job, right?
How can it be that, in the quest for the jobs that matter most (president and vice president), candidates are permitted to manufacture their own "truth" and rewrite their resumes to fit their wishes? The rest of us surely do not get to do that in our efforts to secure the little jobs we do! Sometimes I have to stop and wonder if this all really is happening...
washingtonpost.com: Running on a Lie (Post, Sept. 15)
Eugene Robinson: Sometimes I have to stop and wonder, too. I don't understand how being unencumbered by knowledge of Washington or foreign affairs is somehow a recommendation for high office.
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Baltimore: Mr. Robinson, it seems that you didn't listen to all of what Karl Rove had to say, and conveniently left out the part of how untruthful Obama's ads have been. You try to paint this image that only Republican candidates stretch the truth, but make no mention of the many untruths the Democrats have spread. Why the one-sided reporting?
Eugene Robinson: The traditional definition of news if "man bites dog." It is no surprise that Karl Rove would criticize a Democratic candidate's ads. That would be "dog bites man." It is indeed a surprise that he would question the Republican candidate's ads.
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The Election and the Economy: What people want to see are energetic, solution-oriented politicians who are on the case. They must have energy and a vision, and it would be good to see them anxious to convey their belief in it to the people of the country, to take delight in their knowledge of the field. Little things like a "credit agency" here or "regulators" there do not really cut it. I want someone who will grab the bull (so to speak) by the horns and say "here's what we're gonna do." And it might not be a bad time for them to ask something of U.S. As a Democrat, I'm afraid there so far has been only one person in particular who fits the bill. Pun intended.
Eugene Robinson: I think you make a great point. I have said before, and say again, that the candidate who is able to offer a compelling vision of how to restart the economy and give people hope for a better and more prosperous future will seize the initiative in this election.
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J. Francois Kerry: You claim that Palin lied when she stated that she told Congress "thanks but no thanks for that Bridge to Nowhere up in Alaska" because she supported the bridge while running for governor. Mainstream media outlets and Alaskan Democrats concede that she killed the project. That makes her statement consistent with the facts. Do you have any evidence that she has stated that she "opposed" the "Bridge to Nowhere" from the start, or is your attack based on distortion? That might make it a smear.
Eugene Robinson: Her statement is not consistent with the facts. She killed a project that was already dead. She tries to give the impression that she opposed it when in fact she supported it when she ran for governor and while she was in office. If she were to say that she was in favor of the bridge but came to oppose it after it had become a national embarrassment, and took the money anyway for other projects, that would be truthful and I'd have no problem.
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Oviedo, Fla.: Why is it accepted for Obama to be spoken of in the same breath with Thurgood Marshall, Medgar Evers, Martin Luther King Jr. of course and the entire civil rights movement/history of black struggle? He had nothing to do with any of that. The honor earned by brave blacks who broke barriers all accrue to him, now, just because he is black? And we "old" white women (I just turned 50) are bitter, shrewish battle-axe types when we are just as excited about the symbolism of Hillary Clinton's 18 million votes? Or for that matter, enjoy the overnight spotlite on Sarah Palin?
In short -- why is it cool to break barriers as a black and tedious and even offensive to note similar gains for females? The new ground for Obama is sacred and above critique, while that for Clinton and Palin is simply a bigger stage where they are savaged as being too entrenched or not established enough, and so on. What gives?
Eugene Robinson: First of all, you're certainly not "old" as far as I'm concerned. Second, I guess I don't agree with your premise. I do agree that Hillary Clinton's campaign and Sarah Palin's candidacy are historic. But how can you suggest that Obama hasn't been subjected to critical scrutiny? And shouldn't Palin be scrutinized as well?
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Charlotte, N.C.: With all of Obama's hand-wringing about focusing on the issues, do you think he now wishes he would have done the joint town hall meetings with McCain? It seems to me this would have kept the focus of both campaigns where they need to be. I thought it did not jibe with his "new politics" campaign when he denied McCain's offer.
Eugene Robinson: That's an interesting question. I guess I don't buy John McCain's claim that the campaign would have been like a graduate school seminar if only Obama had agreed to the town halls. That sounds like an invented rationalization to me. But I wonder if we wouldn't have been better served by seeing the candidates side by side in some kind of series of encounters. We'll still have the three debates, but I would have liked to see more.
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Seattle: McCain supported Bush's efforts to privatize Social Security and invest the money in Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, Merill Lynch, etc. Will McCain run into a lot of trouble regarding this?
Eugene Robinson: I would think the Democrats might want to mention McCain's ideas about Social Security.
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Norfolk, Va.: Eugene, Obama's ad questioning McCain's honor -- and the 527 ad trashing his time as a POW -- are really beyond the pale. They go way beyond McCain's dirty little ads. Doesn't Obama risk tarnishing his reputation by getting down in the gutter like this? My father always said "never mud-wrestle a pig -- you'll get dirty, and the pig likes it."
Eugene Robinson: The Obama campaign has a fine line to walk. The 527's on both sides are going to mud-wrestle, and the campaigns, by law, can't be involved. After McCain's ad accusing Obama of supporting sex education for kindergartners, I don't see how Obama could avoid firing back on the issue of honor. But every day spent on this back-and-forth is a day not spent talking about the issues, and the issues are where Obama has an advantage because he's more in tune with public opinion than McCain.
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Denver: I read an interesting piece yesterday that got me to thinking ... how would I feel about any one of the four candidates taking over at Lehman Brothers? If any of them leave me feeling squeamish about their qualifications in that role, how could I possibly consider that same person in the role of commander in chief? Suddenly my vote became clearer than ever.
Eugene Robinson: That's an interesting way to look at it. Being a CEO isn't exactly the same thing as being commander in chief, but you could argue that there's enough overlap to make this a useful thought experiment.
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Rockville, Md.: Gene, wouldn't it be fair to say elections these days essentially are lying contests? The candidate that lies most convicingly ("I'll get A, B and C done" or "my opponnent did X, Y and Z horrible things") wins, no? I'm not saying Palin's a convincing liar, but...
Eugene Robinson: I hope we haven't devolved to that point. I hope this election can ultimately be about McCain's vision of the future versus Obama's -- and about either candidate's ability to take us there.
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Roseland, N.J.: If I managed my kids the way the SEC managed this market, I'd be in jail for child abuse. They'd be sticking their finger in the socket, and I'd be saying, "I'll let the current sort out whether that's a good idea or not."
Eugene Robinson: The prevailing philosophy in Washington has been that we need more deregulation and less oversight. Not the way I would manage my kids, either.
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Arlington, Va.:"I don't understand how being unencumbered by knowledge of Washington or foreign affairs is somehow a recommendation for high office." It's ironic that you can't see that your attempt to belittle Sarah Palin actually applies more aptly to ... Barack Obama.
Eugene Robinson: Obviously, people have questioned Obama's experience. That's a legitimate issue. It doesn't seem to be a dominant issue, however, because McCain -- who has, unquestionably, tons of experience in Washington -- is now all about change.
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Virginia Beach, Va.: Any comment on David Brook's article in the New York Times this morning? Do you see other conservative columnists following in his footsteps?
washingtonpost.com: Why Experience Matters (New York Times, Sept. 16)
Eugene Robinson: I thought David Brooks' column was eloquent. Even if he works for Brand X.
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Washington: After reading your article, I'm a little perplexed about campaigning about big government. These same people want to get big government contracts, or big government business loans. Then, when they become successful, they don't want to pay taxes because they feel as though they are giving away their hard-earned money, which for the average people was how they became successful in the first place. Most of all, if they don't like big government, why are they trying to get elected and take control of this wonderful big government?
Eugene Robinson: That's a great question. If you don't believe in government, why spend all that time and effort campaigning to... run the government? Why not leave that to someone who believes that government is necessary and good?
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Eugene Robinson: My time is up, folks. Thanks to all for tuning in, and I'll see you again next week. By then we'll be getting ready for the first presidential debate. Elections don't get more exciting, or consequential, than this one.
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washingtonpost.com: Discussion: The Economy and The Election (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
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September 16, 2008 Tuesday 12:00 PM EST
Chatological Humor: The Best Feeling in the World (UPDATED 9.17.08);
aka Tuesdays With Moron
BYLINE: Gene Weingarten, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 10251 words
HIGHLIGHT: Daily Updates: WED
Daily Updates: WED
Gene Weingarten's humor column, Below the Beltway, appears every Sunday in The Washington Post magazine. It is syndicated nationally by the Washington Post Writers Group.
At one time or another, Below the Beltway has managed to offend persons of both sexes as well as individuals belonging to every religious, ethnic, regional, political and socioeconomic group. If you know of a group we have missed, please write in and the situation will be promptly rectified. "Rectified" is a funny word.
On Tuesdays at noon, Gene is online to take your questions and abuse. He will chat about anything. Although this chat is updated regularly throughout the week, it is not and never will be a "blog," even though many persons keep making that mistake. One reason for the confusion is the Underpants Paradox: Blogs, like underpants, contain "threads," whereas this chat contains no "threads" but, like underpants, does sometimes get funky and inexcusable.
This Week's Poll: MEN | WOMEN
Not Chat Day? Visit the Gene Pool.
Important, secret note to readers: The management of The Washington Post apparently does not know this chat exists, or it would have been shut down long ago. Please do not tell them. Thank you.
Weingarten is also the author of "The Hypochondriac's Guide to Life. And Death" and co-author of "I'm with Stupid," with feminist scholar Gina Barreca.
New to Chatological Humor? Read the FAQ.
P.S. If composing your questions in Microsoft Word please turn off the Smart Quotes functionality or use WordPad. I haven't the time to edit them out. -- Liz
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Gene Weingarten: Good afternoon.
Apparently, Sarah Palin purchased a tanning bed for her governor's mansion. I hope to be the first Outspoken Liberal to say: I don't care. I don't think it reflects badly on her. (Haha! Pun!) I make no negative inferences about it. This is the very first factoid about Gov. Palin that I think is unworthy of adding to her long list of febrile atrocities. I officially hereby discard the tanning bed as a story and urge others to, as well.
---
A few days ago, something odd happened to my laptop. You know the little icon on the lower right part of the monitor that looks like two screens overlapping? It shows whether you are connected to wireless. Well, a few days ago, it developed a red X over it, which remained there whether or not I was in fact connected to the Web. It impeded nothing. My computer was otherwise acting fine. But there was this little red X, see?
Quick, take this instapoll!
Thank you for voting. You may judge for yourself if you were right or wrong.
I called customer service and spoke to a man in San Jose, Costa Rica. We were on the phone for one hour and 16 minutes. He had me do many things, involving re-booting my computer several times. He showed me how to go into scary "administrator" mode and type odd things like "ping" onto the black screen. The red X remained. Finally, he said this problem was too complex for him to solve, and gave me a different number to call. This was to be connected to an Enhanced degree of service, from people more knowledgeable than he.
This call went to Taiwan, where I spoke to someone who claimed to be named David but obviously wasn't, and then I was rerouted to a suburb of Manila in the Philippines. The new guy, who also claimed to be David and wasn't, stayed on the phone with me for one hour and 52 minutes. At one point, while on hold, my cell almost died, which would have been disaster, so I had to rush to plug it into a wall socket, and because I have an old house without lots of wall sockets, this meant I had to unplug my computer and hunch over it on the floor for a half hour as my phone was charging.
This new technician also had me go into administrator mode, and at one point he actually physically took control of my computer, from the Philippines, and I watched oddly fascinated as the cursor danced around, and he opened control pages and entered text and clicked on things thus such. That led to this exchange:
Me: Whoa, this is weird.
Him:
Me: It's like you're physically inside my computer.
Him:
Me: I would like this a lot better if you were a woman.
Him:
Me: Hey, are we getting anywhere, or should I just go f--- myself?
Him:
As I said, this session lasted just under two hours. The red X was still there. Finally, in exasperation, I said, "Isn't there some way to restore my computer to an earlier point in time, before this problem began?"
"Some people do that," he said, with some distaste, as if he were saying "some people are sexually attracted to armpits."
Yeah. That solved the problem. I did it on my own.
---
Regarding my column on Sunday about reader "Comments" to online stories, I would like to post here, in its entirety and without further comment, a "comment" that appeared beneath a Post Review of "Burn After Reading."
iamerican wrote: Having yet to see this latest offering, one must suspect, given the genius track-record of the Coens, with, for some, deep and painful levels of revealed truth, and the proven patriotic sensibility of Clooney, the negative comments here are from the sinecures and traitors with Government I.D.'s, perks, pensions, and the astounding willingness to cash their paychecks, who have no problem "failing" to recognize that which everyone outside the Beltway knows: the CIA was found by a Federal District Court Jury to have assassinated John Kennedy ('Hunt v Liberty Lobby') six weeks after he ordered our military home from Vietnam, led by Nixon and Bush1; and, Bush2 is a closet-queen draft-dodger cheated into the White House by the Roman Catholics on the Supreme Court who has yet to be brought to justice for committing 9/11 (Viz. "The New Pearl Harbor," Griffin, PhD).
Can't wait to see the Coen's "take" on the city of my birth and, former, hometown.
Art leads Life May G-d bless America once more Death for Treason Annuit Coeptis
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I want to thank Henry Chen for this interesting audio hallucination.
There is much speculation on the Web that this is a trick, but it isn't. I have tried to understand how it works, and failed. Someone will explain it to us, I am confident.
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I really have no choice about the Clip of the Day. My duties as chronicler of pinnacles of humor require me to link to this, even though most of you have probably already seen it. I cannot recall ever watching a better impersonation of a politician figure than what Tina Fey has pulled off here. She's as good as Caliendo doing Madden.
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Please take today's poll. (MEN | WOMEN) Well' be talking about it through the chat.
A good comics week, not a great comics week. These are all honorable mentions: Monday's Frazz, Monday's Nonseq, Wednesday's Speed Bump, Wednesday's Doonesbury, Thursday's Fuzzy, Sunday's Argyle Sweater.
Actually, i take that back. The CPOW goes to Richard Thompson, for this oddly linked and satisfying combination of Cul De Sac and Richard's Poor Almanack, on Saturday.
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Springfield, Va.: LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS. It would be great to shed some light, and not more misplaced heat here. My primary concern is that this intelligent woman is being so offended that she wants to punish all the wrong people.
"I know it's not coming from the Obama campaign, but still! A woman can't be smart and attractive at the same time? She can't bear children and not be a full-time mom?
I'm a politically-active, Ivy League-educated, flamingly-liberal woman who is tempted to vote McCain/Palin just as a statement against the toxic attitude toward women in power in America.
Grr Boo Hiss! I'm hoping the media wakes up before they forve me to make a horrible decision out of anger to actually vote for the dark side. "
Gene Weingarten: The item quoted here is from last week's updates. I'm happy to start the discussion. There are two issues here. The first, the one you raise, is whether it makes any sense for a liberal woman to vote against her best interests, to vote for an arch-conservative ticket that among other things would love to overturn Roe v. Wade, and to do this as some sort of protest against what she sees as the generalized media-driven sexist treatment of a woman candidate. I kind of understand the impulse, but it seems illogical, intemperate, and wrong -- as the poster herself seems to know. Especially because she ackowledges this is not driven by the Obama campaign. It's just a spasm of misplaced anger. The larger issue, though, is whether she is right about a pervasive sexism regarding Palin. And to analyze that, I think we have to start by going back to the Clinton campaign. There was definitely some sexism displayed toward Clinton during the campaign, just as there was some racism displayed toward Obama. But I don't think that either rose to the level of an overwhelming factor, and I believe that was the general consensus among nonpartisan people who watched the campaign more closely than I did. I think, in general, Clinton was treated fairly by the media. So what about Palin? (And I ask this leading with my chin, as the guy who wrote a poem last week calling her a MILF.) If the candidate for vice president were Christine Todd Whitman, or another woman with a defensibly impressive background of leadership and experience, you would not see what you are seeing in the media. You just wouldn't. I think that the choice of someone as nakedly unqualified and dowright weird as Sarah Palin has opened her, and McCain, up to justified ridicule. Is the fact that she chose to have a child at 43, vastly (and some would say irresponsibly) increasing the likelihood of that child being a Down Syndrome child, an issue? Yeah. Could it be an issue if she were a man? No. I don't care. (No woman could have been accused of draft-dodging, as Clinton was. Doesn't matter.) Is it appropriate to mention that Palin is unusually young and attractive and gun-totin' and big-haired and plain ol' hicksy and whatnot, and that those speaking in her defense make some outrageously silly exaggerations of her experience? Sure -- because her age and attractiveness and demeanor and backwoodsiness clearly were part of why McCain cynically chose her. He put all these things in play. So, to the original poster: I think you're probably smart, but you sure are acting dumb, not because you are a woman, but because you're being both petulant and wrong.
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Seattle, Wash.: The audio hallucination is done by having multiple "parallel" scales playing at the same time, each an octave apart. As the notes of a given scale approach the middle range, they get louder; as they leave it, they get softer. Since the tones overall are rising, we get the effect of an endlessly rising scale; however, because of the adjustments in volume, we end up right where we started.
See this page for details and/or corroborating evidence.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you.
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The poll: Who are all these people who think a movie's genre is more informative than the name of the director? Madness! In fact, of all the choices you provided, director is the ONLY choice that provides any real predictive value at all, in terms of the likely look, feel, and quality of the film.
Gene Weingarten: It depends on whether you know the directors and what they've made. I am very spotty on this. There was no good choice for me, really.
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Richmond, Va.: When I saw your poll question about choosing a doctor based on the name, and knew immediately that it would be about stereotypes based on nationality. And I did indeed choose a doctor honestly and there was indeed stereotyping involved.
The name Sebastian S. Bradisher sounds British, and I decided that Dr. Bradisher was likely to have a British accent. Since this medical condition would be stressful and depressing and since I am enchanted by British accents, the rationale is that this doctor would be most likely to make me smile - something I would desperately need at the time.
Gene Weingarten: Understood. If there is a young college-aged woman name Martha Hendrickson out there, she might want to consider a career in internal medicine. She'd apparently do VERY well. Yes, this was a nakedly manipulative poll, and I think we got mostly honest answers. In truth, of course, you would seldom JUST know the names of the doctors, and I am sure that in most cases any real information received would trump casual, spasmodic racial/ethnic chauvinism. I did laugh out loud, though, that the Jew was so clearly the favorite of the men. I definitely was taught, growing up, to seek out the Jew in all areas of life except betting on sports, but I grew up in Jewish ghetto. I'm not sure what explains this result. Anyone?
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Juneau, Alaska: So what do you see yourself doing on Nov. 5 if you wake up to a President McCain?
Gene Weingarten: I'm more nervous about waking up on Nov. 6 with President Palin. Hey, not to be gruesome, but does anyone know what the rules are if the president elect dies before his inauguration?
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Luddi,TE: The little icon with the two computers isn't for wireless - it's for a wired internet connection. Wireless is the computer with the two curved lines. So unless you are physically connected to the Internet with a cable you can ignore the paired computer icon.
washingtonpost.com: I think this guy is right, Gene.
Gene Weingarten: Nope. This is wireless.
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Washington, D.C.: Gene, I think you overlooked the best cartoon this week. Eric Shansby's cartoon accompanying your column made me laugh out loud, and was hands down the best cartoon of the week. Was this an oversight or is there some kind of conflict of interest where you can't pick his for the CPOW?
washingtonpost.com: No Comment, (Post Magazine, Sept. 14)
Gene Weingarten: This was completely brilliant, but I limit my cartoon picks to comics-page cartoons. Thaks for writing in, Eric.
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Noted: Yes vote in insta-poll was based on the general policy NEVER GET INVOLVED WITH COMPUTER COSTOMER SERVICE UNLESS THE MACHINE WILL NOT FUNCTION. This is now taught in elementary school along with hand washing, avoiding strangers and other personal safety truisms. For you, thought, the answer would be "No" because you will get at least one column out of the experience.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you.
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Audio hallucination: Imagine an infinite piano keyboard, and that all the A notes are played together, then all Bs, Cs, etc... You will have the impression that each sound is higher than the previous one - even if the scale will repeat itself on the 8th note. You can search on the net for "endless octave" for another example of this fascinating illusion.
Gene Weingarten: It's really interesting, isn't it? The first time I heard it, I suspected chicanery; that hitting "replay" was somehow rigged to deliver a different set of pitches.
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Wow!: Right now, more men than women think that "being held lovingly" is a better non-sex physical feeling. Aww, Gene chatters are sooo sensitive!
Gene Weingarten: The guys are lying.
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Bowie, Md.: "Hey, not to be gruesome, but does anyone know what the rules are if the president elect dies before his inauguration? "
Between the general election and the convening of the electoral college, the electors can switch to whoever they want.
Once THEY'VE voted, on Jan 20 the VP nominee is sworn into that office, and then would immediately be sworn in as Pres.
Gene Weingarten: I will accept this unless instructed otherwise by someone more knowledgeable.
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State of doubt: What would Gene do?
While at a doctor appointment, I foolishly allowed myself to be drawn into a political discussion with my doctor. He started the discussion by asking what I thought of McCain's VP candidate. It ended with him declaring homosexuality to be immoral and unnatural, and me declaring that an unborn fetus was a parasite. Can I even go back to this doctor again? Should I trust him, now that he knows we have vastly opposing beliefs? I don't want anymore political lectures, I just want a good sinus guy. He slammed my candidate, and basically told my I need to re-think my opinions. But he IS a really good sinus guy. What would you do?
Gene Weingarten: Okay, well, I have a doctor whom I like and have seen for years, even though he has a big sign in his office that says "Support Our President." Your situation is a little different, though. My doc has a political opinion with which I disagree. Your doc is a bigot. So I'm not sure. This may be a ligitimate ethical call on your part, and the best way to think about it would be to ask yourself what you would do if, instead of saying gays were immoral, he said the same thing about Jews or black people. Cause it's on the same plane, in my opinion. I'd like to hear what others think about this.
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Capitol Hill: Sunday's column was wonderfully demonstrated in Monday's Raw Fisher. The comments ranged from outright racist to nearly off the point entirely. Great fun to read, and more than a little disturbing to contemplate.
washingtonpost.com: Union Station Movie Theaters to Close, (Raw Fisher, Sept. 15)
Gene Weingarten: I'm not suprised the Union Station theaters are closing. The Rib and I were there on Saturday night to see Tropic Thunder, and we were nearly alone in the audience. Hit movie, still reasonably early in its run, at prime time. No way this place is making money. Also, when I went to the men's room, something odd happened. When I walked in, a guy at the sink started coughing loudly. Then he walked out. I believe this was a signal. As I was at the urinal I realized there were two men in one stall, being very, very quiet. I don't think this was sex, I think it was a different type of transaction. I zipped up real quick and left. As for the comments to Marc's story, I suspect some of the really bad ones have been removed. The ones that are left are coherent, mostly articulate, highly judgmental, and troubling because they are confronting, with varying degrees of sensitivity, an uncomfortable truth. My kids stopped going to Union Station theaters many years ago. I had to pry the reason out of them, because they were embarrassed about it. The audiences were young, rowdy and "interactive" to a degree that was ludicrous and distracting. I had experienced something similar the few times I'd been there.
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Seattle, Wash.: "Who are all these people who think a movie's genre is more informative than the name of the director?"
Clearly, you're not getting it.
If I want to see a comedy, I want to see a comedy. If I want to action, I want to see action.
Yeah, it might be mediocre, but if I'm in the mood to see something action-packed and exciting, the best Nora Ephron movie isn't going to get it done.
Gene Weingarten: Oh, but things that define themselves as comedy have a very very long continuum of quality. And you don't want to be anywhere near the bottom half.
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Cleveland Park, Washington, DC: "Who are all these people who think a movie's genre is more informative than the name of the director? Madness! In fact, of all the choices you provided, director is the ONLY choice that provides any real predictive value at all, in terms of the likely look, feel, and quality of the film."
I chose lead actor. There are some actors I cannot stand and will not see. If Adam Sandler is starring in a Scorcese movie, I'm not going to it.
Gene Weingarten: I would see it. Scorsese would have a good reason. He might be making fun of Adam, without Adam knowing.
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Pastis CHOKED!: Did you catch Pastis losing embarrassingly on "Wait Wait, Don't Tell me?" this weekend? He even changed his answer from the correct response.
Gene Weingarten: No! Hahaha.
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Pentagon City, Va.: Aren't the Republicans as much to blame as anyone for the sexism against Palin? I saw a lot of "Hottest VP Ever" buttons worn by the conventioneers at St. Paul. They didn't do that for Quayle and I never heard one Republican come out against the Hillary Clinton nut cracker that was for sale in some stores. And SNL even made a joke about Hillary having balls, but no Republican has complained about that sexism. But the Republicans seem very willing to play the sexism card anytime someone questions Palin's background and experience.
Gene Weingarten: Simple answer: Yes. They brought this on themselves.
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Washington, D.C.: My only "issue" with the SNL sketch was Tina Fey's accent - it was a little too Fargo/Minnesota compared to Gov. Palin. Her mannerisms and everything else were spot on - but the voice was just far enough off that it was noticable. Granted, she's had all of two weeks to work on it, at most, so it was still an amazing feat. And the writing was brilliant.
Gene Weingarten: Poehler had some great lines, and delivered them well, but the side-by-side showed the weakness of her Hillary.
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Two computers with Red X icon: Let your cursor hover over the icon. You will get a dialog box that states "Local Area Connection. A network cable is unplugged."
Gene Weingarten: Ah, but when I just hovered it it said: Currently connected to: (name of my wireless connection) Access: Local and internet.
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Dr. Hendrickson, I presume: I am female, and I am noticing that a large majority (so far) of women have chosed Dr. H. I went through the following analysis to reach my answer:
1. It's an urgent problem and she's first on the list, so in the absence of any further information, why not stop there?
2. It's a GI tract problem and, in my experience, men and women experience GI problems a little differently. A female doc is just a little more likely to understand how whatever it is feels to me and/or be able to distinguish between genuine GI issues and possible other issues.
3. Based on past experience, there is a reasonable chance that while Dr. Wong may be an excellent doctor, she will have an accent that will make it pretty hard for me to understand her, and this will cut down on the effectiveness of my consulting her. I am basing this not only on her last name but her first name, which is old-fashioned and more likely to have been adopted by an adult immigrant than bestowed on a child born in an English-speaking country. I'm in severe GI discomfort and I don't want to deal with language difficulties if I can avoid it.
So, does this make me a racist or otherwise unworty of polite society?
Gene Weingarten: Yeah, I do think it is racially insensitive to assume Dr. Wong will have an accent that will impede communication. She's a doctor with a practice.
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McCa, IN: Re: Dying before taking office.
A better question might be, "If McCain died this week, would Palin become the nominee, or would the party put in a different presidential nominee and keep her as VP?" The GOP's answer to that would prove whether they really believe she's qualified or know (wink-wink) that she's a gimmick.
Gene Weingarten: It would be Pawlenty-Palin. They are cynical, they are not stupid.
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Charcoal Sniper Palin: According to the Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator you'd be Beretta Hockey Palin. I think this is an improvement.
Obama would be Tarp Lazer Palin, which would likely win him more votes in Pennsylvania.
washingtonpost.com: Me: Skein Chug Palin
Gene Weingarten: This thing is very funny.
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Alexandria, Va.: "Jews and blacks are basically homosexuals in my opinion." -- Gene Weingarten
Gene Weingarten: I do not disavow that quote.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: At any point during your issue with the red X did you reboot your computer? That's always the first thing you should do, but in your description it doesn't sound like you did, nor does it sound like the technicians recommended it. Weird.
Gene Weingarten: Nah, I did many times.
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Washington, D.C.: "In truth, of course, you would seldom JUST know the names of the doctors"
When I moved here, my employer signed me up with Kaiser Permananente (HMO). I was given a book with lists of doctors and told to pick one as my primary care physician. It provided their location, their specialty, and their name. So once I decided I wanted an internist at their NW DC facility, I really did pick based on name.
What an awful way to pick a doctor, right?
I should add that my husband is a medical student, and he had no better ideas at the time.
Gene Weingarten: Hey, it's how most people vote for judges.
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politically-active, Ivy League-educated, flamingly-liberal woman: B---h is crazy. Seriously, I'm a liberal woman too I don't think the media is being sexist when it comes to Sarah Palin. She's very new and no one knows anything about her. We deserve to know everything. I don't think Charlie Gibson was being condescending either, which I keep hearing. That is all.
Gene Weingarten: Well, Charlie Gibson's question about the Bush Doctrine was a completely transparent trap. That question would not have been asked of any other candidate. And the fact that he wouldn't explain what it was after her initial "huh" was also transparent. I LIKED it, but, man. It was a quiz question.
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John McCain: what's an icon? and what's a wireless? I'm sorry, my friend, but you are whining too much. When I was in that Hanoi hell-hole, we were glad to get even a mere scrap of paper to write our messages.
Gene Weingarten: Sorry, sir.
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Worth Three Words: Here are some examples to support my choice of the three-word reviewer's quote from a print ad for each movie. They're all taken from this Sunday's Post. Judge for yourself whether they provide some indication of quality, as well as some useful clues to the genre. (I expected more clues to the name of the biggest star, but they didn't seem to be there in three words in these ads -- no "Carrey is hilarious!" or anything.) Remember, while all reviewers' quotes from print ads are positive, there are still different levels of positivity and believability.
"Gorgeously entertaining! Hilarious."
"----! Raunchy merriment!"
"Moving, bitingly funny."
"Miracles do happen."
"Fabulous, fun, fresh!"
"See it. Epic."
"All star cast."
"Sexy, funny romp."
"This year's Bourne."
Gene Weingarten: I don't find any of these remotely helpful. To me, that was only answer in the poll that was of NO value. You have no idea whose review it is, and choosing three words can be done with marvelous cynicism and deception. "Do not see this movie!" and become, accurately "see this movie!" There was one other interesting poll result. The last question was clearly a self-referential joke, right? So, really, to me, there was only one right answer, which was the funny, self-referential answer, which was the last one.
Gene Weingarten: So pat y'self on the back if you chose that.
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Theophyla, CT: I assume you weren't asking about THIS week's poll, you Cretan.
Gene Weingarten: It's "cretin."
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Numerology: B-A-R-A-C-K (6) H-U-S-S-E-I (6) N O-B-A-M-A (6)
There you go. 666.
Gene Weingarten: Hahahahaha.
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Baltimore, Md.: Gene, I hate to rehash the "anti-wedding" article from last week's magazine, but it's been bothering me all week. I don't feel a need to defend my own wedding, or bridesmaids, or flowers. I feel the need to defend a wedding as a holy sacrament.
For atheists, who consider marriage just legal paperwork, the only sensible option seems to be what you did - a courthouse marriage followed by the kind of celebration you'd have for other secular occasions like buying a house or getting a promotion - whatever kind of party that would be for you.
But for a couple of faith, a wedding is a sacred commitment sworn before God and community. This couple didn't give up the self-centeredness or the spectacle of a wedding. I can't help but feel like they were mocking the idea of marriage as a statement of faith: having a sham minister and deliberately omitting vows as part of a public protest.
To me a wedding is like Christmas - we all know the ribbons and bows and sappy songs aren't what the whole thing is really about. Some of us like those extras, some of us don't, some of celebrate only the secular aspects. But you don't see people in the street mocking Jesus's birth - at least not by people willing to have their names in print. Am I the only person who feels this way?
Gene Weingarten: I am sure you are not, but I think you are misunderstanding the story, or misstating your case. You are definning "wedding" as a holy sacrament, which I think is wrong. "Marriage" is the sacrament, no? The "wedding" is the ancillary way that you choose to celebrate the sacrament of the marriage. This story said nothing whatsoever about a couple's decision to marry; if anything, I suppose, it was endorsing marriage, by creating one. The target of this story, as I read it, was the Matrimonial Industrial Complex, a loose conspiracy (okay, actually, a very tight-butted conspiracy) of wedding planners, banquet-hall managers, fashionistas, opportunistic floral designers, editors of thick-as-a-brick bridal magazines, etc. whose survival and continued prosperity depends on their continuing ability to whip American womanhood up into a frenzy of greed, pettiness, competitiveness, immaturity, frazzled nerves and thus such, pushing wedding frippery and foolishness and shameless ostentation to insupportable levels. It was that vast conspiracy at which the story was aimed. I'm not sure why you took it as an affront to faith. No, the couple in question didn't seem to care about religion, so their ceremony was joyfully pagan. But I don't think the story would have changed at all if they'd been married by a Catholic priest who was willing to perform a quiet, dignified, scripturally justified marriage on the street (or if they'd all ducked into a church.) They still could have had their scavenger hunt and dinner at Bertucci's. The actually ceremony wasn't what this story was about; the authors can correct me if I am wrong, but if everything had remained the same but Chris and Jaqi had wanted the services of a real clergyman, that would not have mattered one whit to the anti-wedding planners. If you are arguing that the holiness of a marriage must be additionally sanctified by a big ol' expensive wedding, with hand-calligraphied invitations and bridesmaids dresses made from the same taffeta as the draperies, well, I do not know, but strongly suspect, that Jesus would disagree.
washingtonpost.com: The Anti-Wedding, (Post Magazine, Sept. 7)
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Fairfax, Va.: I chose Dr. Wong because Asian ladies are generally good looking into their 60s and it would help alleviate my discomfort to be around a good looking lady.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you for sharing.
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Baltimore, Md.: Gene, I am in a unique position, and I think you are the only person I can ask for advice. My boyfriend and I had one of our female friends over to our place last night, and both of them drank (I didn't feel like drinking at the time). BF got TRASHED. He was dancing and singing and bumping into things. That part was funny.
What was not funny was when he started putting his hands on friend's knees and thighs and shoulders and face. I don't think he meant to come on to her, but as an observer, that's what it looked like to me. She was not nearly as drunk and seemed to feel VERY awkward, so she left. BF immediately passed out on the bed.
So, what now? I was angry for most of last night, but now I'm not sure how I feel about it. Should I act mad and attempt to punish him further for his transgression, or do you think the massive hangover and crushing embarrassment he'll suffer once he comes to will be punishment enough?
If neither of them remember last night (which is likely), would it be best to pretend that nothing happened?
(BF and friend have never shown interest in each other before. They are not each other's type at all. It was bizarre.)
Gene Weingarten: Well, I'm not Hax, but I'd say you should gently talk to him about it. Don't kill him for it, but he needs to know he did something inappropriate, if for no other reason than to alert a little speck of brain cell, somewhere in there, that might still be functioning the next time he gets in that state. Special hint: The more understanding you are about it, the guiltier and more miserable he will feel about it. The additional question is whether he needs to apologize to your friend. This may depend on the likelihood of her remembering it.
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Chicago, Ill.: You're Jewish so I thought you might have some advice for me. I'm wondering whether to go to services for the high holidays this year. Pro: my mom moved here recently after my dad died (your age, unexpected) and it would be nice to go with her. Con: the amount of public crying I'll be doing thinking about exactly what Yom Kippur is - the time when God decided my dad wasn't going to make it another year. My (simplified) view of religion is that it's evil and creates half of all the problems in the world. But, and I think you might identify with this, I don't want it to end with me, you know?
So, in summary, I don't believe, I don't want to contribute to the demise of the Jewish people, I don't want to bawl in public, and I want to make my mom happy. Any advice?
Gene Weingarten: You're Jewish, you know the answer already: You must do whatever guilt most compels youo do.
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The guys are lying. : Or we're gay.
Gene Weingarten: Right!
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Washington, D.C.: So, was that supposed to be an apology for calling Palin what you called her? 'Cause you really should.
Gene Weingarten: No, it was not. It was exactly what I said it was.
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Washington D.C.: I can top the previous story about the bigot doctor. While I was unable to comment, protest, or otherwise weigh in, my dentist expressed his reservations about a "darkie" as president, and then said to his Carribean hygienist, "Oh, I'm sorry... should I use the term "mulatto"?"
Gene Weingarten: Wow.
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Crotchety young man: Gene is right that the little icon denotes wireless. It looks similar to the wired connection icon, but means wireless. The wireless card I installed on my computer put its own connection program on the computer that has a different icon than the windows internet connection one (and I have some how collected two or three more icons that tell me the same bloody thing). I just felt like ranting and telling Gene that he is right .
Gene Weingarten: I realize this is a boring thread but it is entertaining me.
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Fatsis. Not Pastis.: "Pastis CHOKED!: Did you catch Pastis losing embarrassingly on "Wait Wait, Don't Tell me?" this weekend? He even changed his answer from the correct response."
Um...dude. Did you even listen to the show? Did you wonder why they didn't mention Pearls Before Swine? Did you wonder why they focused on his being a writer who spent a summer as a placekicker with the Broncos? None of this struck you as odd? IT'S NOT THE SAME GUY. The guy on Wait Wait was Stefan Fatsis.
Gene Weingarten: Hahahahahaha. It did seem odd that Pastis would be on the show.
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Philadelphia, Pa.: So I'm home last week to see my parents (in DC), and my dad and I get into a heated argument about Sarah Palin's fitness to be a VP. The argument subsides (after numerous dirty looks from my mother), but my dad brings it up again over dinner by saying, "Well, at least you know the woman stands by what she believes in. She's pro-life and had the baby." My response was that the truly difficult decision would be to be openly pro-choice and not have a baby with Down's (or any other known abnormality - not that I'm advocating that's what one should do). Does that make sense to you, or was I just trying to win an argument with a cheap shot? If it matters, I'm a late 20s female who hasn't yet figured out who to vote for....
Gene Weingarten: I want to repeat something I said in the Gene Pool. Because she is staunchly pro-life, it was indeed an act of conscience to have the Downs child; in fact, she had no other moral choice. The question is more: Was it an irresponsible act to get pregnant at 43, knowing how much more likely it was that she would have a Downs child? But, here is the bigger question: Palin is against abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. While I gigantically disagree with this stance, I do not understand how someone can believe that abortion is the murder of a child, and yet make an exception for rape and incest. Is murder of a child sometimes okay? I don't mean to be snide about this, it actually puzzles me. As I see it, if you are staunchly "pro life," you HAVE to make no exceptions. Palin's stance is the only moral one. No?
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Los Angeles, Calif.: Why is your friend Joel Achenbach reporting on Hurricane Ike in Texas? He's doing a great job, but it seems a bit out of his usual job description.
washingtonpost.com: After Ike, a Test of Endurance, (Post, Sept. 16)
Gene Weingarten: Secret fact, unknown to many: Joel is a great reporter. Parachute him into a situation, he produces magnificent things on deadline.
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Mount Airy, Md.: Can I explain why picking "biggest name star" isn't as shallow as it seems? Because (especially the way Hollywood works these days) it's a more specific clue to the nature of the movie than "genre".
For example: I might like to see a "comedy" -- but I'd like to know whether the star of the comedy is Robin Williams, Ashton Kutcher, or Martin Lawrence, for example.
Gene Weingarten: I'd still rather know the director, but for me, that's taking a chance, because I seldom remember which director did what.
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Rexburg, Idaho: You left off some of the best non-sexual physical feelings off the poll. My favorite is taking a shower after a long day, or after feeling really dirty.
washingtonpost.com: Gene wouldn't understand.
Gene Weingarten: Correct. You know what is totally surprising me about the answers to the first question? How so few people are choosing the scratching of an itch. That's my answer. It is the only answer that relieves an immediate urgency. The bathroom functions are ones that can (usually) be held a little longer, scheduled slightly, relieved more or less at will over a period of time. That itch has to be addressed NOW. And the relief can be exquisite.
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Arlington, Va.: Gene. The Style section has a story today by Joel Garreau and Shankar Vedantam about the stock market and how humans instinctively see patterns in random acts -- how they "ascribe intentionality" to inanimate objects and everyday happenings. They assure readers how human and understandable this is.
Let me ask you something. You know how you're driving along and see a car that is the exact same color, model and year of yours? "Oh hey, just like mine," you think, for 1 second, then forget about it.
One day early last March, I noticed on my morning commute that a car exactly like mine was driving behind me. It cruised there for a few miles, then took an exit. I thought, "Huh."
The same thing happened the next TWO mornings. A different driver with a car the exact color, model and year of mine. Followed me for a few miles, then veered off.
I didn't see any similar cars the next morning and thought, "Whew, just a freaky coincidence." But then it happened on the way home.
As it turned out, a car almost identical to mine would follow me once a day, either morning or evening, on my daily commute. They always had different drivers (once an Asian woman, once a young guy, etc.), none of whom I recognized. They would follow closely behind my car for 3 or 4 miles, then suddenly exit.
This happened almost every weekday in March and April -- well over 30 times. During the first week of May, it stopped, abruptly. It hasn't happened since.
I have no explanation for this, good or bad, except that a group of people obviously decided for some unknown reason to mess with my head. (Fortunately, my head has been so messed with during the past 6 years, it didn't work.)
Sometimes a pattern IS a pattern. What should I do if this starts to happen again? I tried writing down each license plate number, but discovered that I can't write and drive at the same time. Ditto with taking photos. And what would I do with the info, anyway?
washingtonpost.com: Dealing with Scary Mr. Market, (Post, Sept. 16)
Gene Weingarten: What you are describing is the basis of all religion and all superstition and all conspiracy theorizing. Here is an amazing but true fact: Coincidence happens. In fact, it is statistically CERTAIN to happen.
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Raleigh, N.C.: Last night, I had an itch I couldn't reach on my back. It tingled, it felt crawly, it was driving my BATTY. So, I asked my husband to scratch it for me. So, he started in the middle and I gave him directions to find the right spot. He scratched, and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I didn't notice how much I had enjoyed it until after he stopped scratching, and I noticed he had this odd look on his face. I asked what was up, and he said "Wow... normally when I get this reaction from you, you have on a lot less clothing, and I'm breathing much harder!"
The first question of the poll was really easy to answer for me!
Gene Weingarten: I know! I am amazed that so few people chose it.
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Stadium Na,ME: Gene-
What's your opinion of the controversy of the Giants and Jets negotiating with Allianz for stadium naming rights? Does a companies past from close to 70 years ago disqualify them, even when they've tried to apologize and make up for that past?
I just wanted to get your opinion. Although I'm not Jewish, I can't understand where there is a problem.
Gene Weingarten: Background: Allianz was the insurer of Nazis. I don't think, 70 years later, Allianz can be faulted, and should not be punished, but "naming rights" is all about image and PR, and this could not be allowed to happen. The last thing a team wants is controversy over the name of its stadium. By the way, like all decent people, I hate the concept of naming rights.
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Gene - HELP, ME: My parents, who have voted Democratic in every election since Kennedy (except for my Dad voting for George Wallace in '68 - yes, racism was a factor) are ready to vote for McCain because they are so frosted about the treatment Hilary received. What can I say to them to convince them that this is the most bone-headed idea they have ever had?
Gene Weingarten: The treatment Hillary received from WHOM? Unless they feel OBAMA treated Hillary in a sexist fashion, or encouraged such treatment, their vote for McCain is stupid. I don't think there is any evidence that Obama did this.
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A Poll in Response, Washington, D.C.: In response to your latest poll questions for us, here is a series of three short poll questions for you:
1. The sight of a dog in the position to make No. 2 is: (a) funny (b) pathetic (c) both
2. Which is funnier? (a) a dog in the position to make No. 2 (b) a dog doing the "butt-scoot"
3. Which is funnier? (a) a dog doing the "butt-scoot" (b) a cat doing the "butt-scoot"
4. Which celebrity/politician/well-known person would you most like to see doing the "butt-scoot"?
Your answers will undoubtedly be correct.
Gene Weingarten: These are fine questions. Nothing is funnier than the but scoot, but that is only because we have been inured to the poopsquat. It happens to often, so, like the completely hilariously OBVIOUSLY criminal appearance of the face of Richard Nixon, after a while, over time, we just sort of got used to it. I would want to see Antonin Scalia do the buttscoot.
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Judaism: My neighbor is Jewish, and both she and my (non-Jewish) husband tell me that they know a Jewish person when they see one. (They've been tested with both famous and non-famous people.) I don't seem to have the ability to do it. Do you think this gift exists? I don't think it's useful in any way, but I find it fascinating.
As an aside, this neighbor also declared my dog as being from a Jewish family. Because of this, she has been teaching us (both non-practicing Catholics) about Judaism. It's been a great experience!
Gene Weingarten: During the war, my parents sat at the dinner table of another army couple at Fort Belvoir. The man told my parents that he hated Jews and could "smell them a mile away."
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Age and Pregnancy: Gene, You keep saying about how much greater risk Palin took by having a child over the age of 40. The risk of a down syndrome child from a woman under the age of 40 is 1 percent and the risk only rises to 3 percent for a woman over the age of 40.
Gene Weingarten: Um, that is a very large risk increase. Ask any actuary.
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Minneapolis, Minn.: I really wish sneezing had been an option for the first question on the poll!
Gene Weingarten: Yeah. In my experience, people either love or hate to sneeze. I really like it. I have a theory. I just came up with it. Let's see how it flies. Thesis: People who like to sneeze are people who like to get drunk or high. I think people who do not like to sneeze are people who do not like these altered states. Basis: Sneezing involves complete loss of control. You either like losing control, or you do not. You are one sort of person, or the other.
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Fortaleza, Brazil: As an American voter currently far from the States, I have to admit that I cannot see Russia from my window, but I have yet to hear Palin or any of her spokespersons say just why the proximity of Alaska to Russia has any relevance whatsoever to Palin's knowledge of national security and/or world affairs. Did she ever deal with Russian government officials? I know it was Cindy McCain who first brought up the close-to-Russia item, but during last week's interview with ABC, Palin again mentioned the fact the one could see Russia from some place in Alaska (apparently without elaborating). Now I hear she hasn't even really been to Iraq. And it looks like she and John McCain, alumnus of the Keating Five scandal (just the guy to clean up Wall Street), may win. Please explain.
Gene Weingarten: Okay, we need to clear this up. The Alaskan town of Savoonga on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea is actually closer to the Russian mainland than the Alaskan mainland. When I was there, a Yupic Eskimo named Larry pointed toward a distant speck of land and told me it was Siberia. To my knowledge, Palin has never claimed to have herself seen Russia, only that there are places in Alaska from which one can see Russia. Ergo, I believe I am more qualified than she is for the vice presidency. As was Larry.
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Ethical dilem, MA: Gene, I already know my own answer, but wanted to get your take.
I am an attorney. Suppose that, hypothetically, during a recent meeting with a client, she indicated that a political candidate would be attending an outdoor campaign event near her home--within sight of it, actually. She expressed that she does not support this candidate, and that it would be very easy for her to assassinate said candidate from her living room with a hunting rifle, and expressed a certain level of desire (if not an explicit intention) to do exactly that.
Is that something that I should report to this candidate's security personnel? The easy answer is yes, but the ethical rules of the legal profession prohibit me, absent explicit consent from my client, from disclosing communications between us, or confidential information that I learn in the course of representing her, to anyone else. Consent, as you might imagine, would probably not be forthcoming in this case.
Gene Weingarten: Interesting! Did you see 60 Minutes Sunday? A lawyer had a client confess to a murder that another man was tried for, and convicted. He could not ethically do anything about it, and didn't, until his client died. Then he went to the court, and was punished for violating privilege, even after death. You can do nothing. I think you know that. And I think that 90 percent of the readers won't really get this. The real question is, does this change if it is not a vague maybe threat, but a "I am going to do this" statement.
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Naming Rights: With the current economic turmoil and the high cost of college - I think parents to be should seriously consider negotiating with companies on the naming rights for their children. I like the idea of British Petroleum Smith.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you.
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Kink Canada: Re: the sinus doc...Dump him. Sure, he might be a great sinus guy but he can't be that great...has not seen the considerable research regarding the biological basis for homosexuality?
What's next? The world is flat. As a scientist you can't only accept the data that fits within your "moral understanding".
Gene Weingarten: I do think there is a moral obligation to dump the guy. I'd like to hear from someone who disagrees, because I am not sure of this.
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Kansas City: Following on your hatred of Twitter from last week: Here's an example of how "tweeting" can be a touch inappropriate, even for news organizations trying to live on the cutting edge of technology. A reporter for the Rocky Mountain News in Denver tweeted the funeral of a three-year-old boy. A quote: "RMN_Berny: family member says marten is with grandmother who died last year. ' marten we loved you,' he says. People sobbing."
Gene Weingarten: Yeah. This was a very bad idea.
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Raleigh, N.C.: I really like the feeling of relief of a big sneeze. Uhhh...I also like the Grateful Dead and saw them in concert several times. I also like Phish, and attend Bonnaroo every year. Once, when having surgery, after being the general anesthetic, I was asked to count backwards. Upon waking, I was asked if I had ever engaged in "recreational pharmaceuticals" because I counted further than all but 5 patients that anesthesiologist could remember. Draw whatever conclusions you wish...
I'm also the one who noticeably loves a good back scratch who wrote in earlier.
Gene Weingarten: Okay, I consider my theory scientifically proven and the debate is now closed.
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Jewish Doct, OR: My Protestant Grandma (and my mom, a public health nurse) always told me to choose a Jewish doctor, especially when pregnant. Because they felt the Catholic doctors would save the baby before saving me, if it came down to that choice.
Gene Weingarten: Oooooooh.
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New York, N.Y.: I don't think we ever got the link to your 2000 story about asking the candidates about the funniest thing about running for President.
washingtonpost.com: Oopsy. Tomorrow.
Gene Weingarten: Okay.
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Virginia Square, Arlington, Va.: I could not answer the first poll question. None of the choices comes close to what I experienced when my badly dislocated shoulder was reduced. The moment after the doctor returned my arm to its socket was pure bliss....a total release from the excruciating pain I was experiencing during the procedure -- nothing has ever come close to it. If I was a smoker, I would have wanted a cigarette.
Gene Weingarten: Interesting. Yeah, I chose not to include a few powerful but non-universal sensations. Like, "that first rush of mainlined smack...."
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Richmond, Va.: Excellent response on Palin/Abortion. I've struggled my whole adult life to reconcile my general aversion to and objection to abortion....and yet, I CAN see circumstances in which it is a merciful (yet dreadful) choice. I am, therefore, I suppose, a pro-life pro-choicer. It's hard for me to accept it as a simple option--it's way, way more than that...but I can't bring myself to close that option off from someone in need. Makes it hard for sound bites.
Gene Weingarten: I think one's position on abortion is simply and clearly driven by whether, at some (haha) visceral level, you find a very early fetus to be a life. I don't. Just don't feel it. But if you really, really do, I don't see how you excuse an exception for rape or incest. I hope this not sound snide or baiting. I don't mean it argumentatively. I'm just not getting my mind around the logic of it.
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Washington, D.C.: Gene, I read The Post at home in the mornings before coming to work. But this morning someone e-mailed me a scathing column by Richard Cohen that I am positive I did not see on the Op-Ed page of the paper. Am I nuts? Or did The Post really not run the column?
Gene Weingarten: It is on the Web, but dated tomorrow. I think there was a slip up. I think it runs tomorrow.
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Anonymous: I don't know about that sneeze theory. I hate losing control, and am a rare/moderate drinker as a result (at college-a whole three months ago-I was notorious among my friends for this). But sneezing often provides me with freat relief. I feel clearer afterwards, often.
Gene Weingarten: Ah, we may be getting somewhere. You feel clearer afterwards... but what about the sensation of the sneeze itself? Is that pleasurable? I'm guessing not.
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But... but: "Gene Weingarten: Yeah. In my experience, people either love or hate to sneeze. I really like it."
You tought ME how not to sneeze. The whole tounge to the soft palette thing.
Gene Weingarten: That is not my trick. Mine is finger under the nose, pushed up hard. But I only do that when it is socially unacceptable to sneeze.
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TVFL: Your question about doctors reminds me of a joke told by Sarah Silverman: "I was raped by a doctor. That's so bittersweet for a Jewish girl."
Gene Weingarten: Hahahahaha. Wow. An actually funny rape joke. Guy could not tell that joke.
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Washington, D.C.: I cannot believe that so many of your readers did not get the irony in question number 4.
Gene Weingarten: Or ignored it.
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Anti-Choice stance: Hi Gene --
You are of course correct that the only tenable stand for an anti-choice, "life begins at conception" advocate to take is to oppose all abortions, including the cases of rape & incest as well as instances where fetuses are severely deformed.
I take it one step further: I think it is untenable to be anti-choice and also to support war and the death penalty. Certainly, no one could say that scores of innocent children are killed in any war. Similarly, the (not insignificant) chance that an innocent person could be put to death should be enough to demand that the death penalty be abolished.
When individuals take these three positions, then, certainly, there is no quarreling with their moral stance. I may not share that view, but I cannot quarrel with it.
Gene Weingarten: I disagree. I limit my criticism to abortion only. And for the updates, I'd like to hear from someone who draws the line at rape and incest. Please explain. Send to weingarten(at)washpost.com. Thank you all. Good chat. See you in the updates.
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DBFL: Please, please, let me be the one to say it's been a great chat, but it's time to go. Gene will be updating all week.
Gene Weingarten: Drat!
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UPDATED 9.17.08
washingtonpost.com: As promised, Gene's 2000 story (sadly, without the accompanying art):
How Is the Presidential Campaign Like This Picture? (Post, Jan. 23, 2000)
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Gene Weingarten: I asked for people to explain how they could feel abortion was the murder of a baby, but make an exception in the case of rape or incest. Not many people tried. But this man, I think, did reasonably well, and did so quite articulately; it would be persuasive if you are ready to accept a pretty dramatic logical leap right there in the middle of it --
I am a moderate who is usually equally disdained by both the right and the left. I have that stance that you don't understand about being against abortion with exceptions for rape and incest. To me the world is not black and white and I question the common sense of those people who feel the need to cast it in black and white.
In a perfect world, abortion would not be allowed. In a perfect world, there would be birth control that worked 100 percent, no crime, no rape, no incest. Sexual education would be taught to all children before they were of reproductive ages (whether by parents or school) and birth control would be made available to those who wanted/needed it so that unwanted preganancies would not occur. Such a fantasy does not exist. So we have to temper our values with a practical solution.
I believe that abortion is wrong except in the extreme cases where there are other mitigating circumstances. If it would not endanger the life or health of the mother, I think that no woman should electively be allowed to abort a life. However, if the health or life of the mother is in danger, that is clearly an exception. In the case of rape and/or incest, the mother has already gone through trauma and the psychological damage; carrying the product of her assault could cause her could damage her for life. This is another extenuating circumstance that mitigates the need to preserve the life of the child.
What I can't understand are those people who have such immutable values that they cannot add common sense to their thoughts. To me the exceptions of rape, incest, health and life of the mother are similar to the exceptions of self-defense to the accusal of murder or manslaughter. They are extreme extenuating circumstances that require us to THINK before judging rather than blindly following some idea that works best in a theoretical sense and not in a practical sense. If your wife was wounded and you were driving her to the hospital would you follow all traffic laws religiously because it's the right thing and the law, or would you get her to the hospital as fast as you could?
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Gene Weingarten: Hey, you know how I said yesterday that the Palin tanning-bed story was beneath contempt and not a story? Well, I have decided I was wrong. This is because of an important communique I just received from my friend Tom Scocca, who resides in Beijing but is a very loyal American. Tom has come up with a political slogan that will, and I quote, "save America." Here it is:
Obama. He's ALREADY tan.
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Maryland: You have to see the Twin Cities Pioneer Press article "Republican by Day, Romeo by Night, Robbed by Morning."
Make sure you watch the linked video so you can see what this guy is really like. We're talking d*****bag warehouse.
Gene Weingarten: This is so great. I particularly love the interviewer's reactions.
Before I saw the interview, I was wondering what explained the presence of all the bling in the room of a single guy. Now I understand: It must have been his. Hairy chest bling.
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Fairfax, Va.: This story is a little gross and probably makes me seem weird, but I think it speaks to how we interpret pleasure.
Several years ago I developed a sebaceous cyst on my scalp. That's like a zit with attitude. Because it was hidden, I ignored it. Then, very quickly, it became infected. Before I had a chance to see a doctor the thing had grown into a large tender swollen protuberance. I started to look like a freakish unicorn. In the early hours of the morning I woke up in intense pain. The thing was throbbing. In desperation I went into the bathroom and applied a very hot compress. Immediately, the cyst burst. I will omit the visuals.
Suffice it to say that a sense of relief and satiation rolled over me the likes of which I had never before experienced. I felt my eyes roll back in rapture.
Now, the doctor tells me such an infected cyst could have easily led to blood poisoning. Home treatment is not recommended.
And yet a small part of me hopes it happens again.
Gene Weingarten: Thank you.
Okay, now I have a question for some linquists out there. Perhaps P the P is listening.
Why is the word "protuberance" and not "protruberance," as I used it until learning better in my 20s -- is the root "tuber'? Isn't it all about protruding?
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Doctor, Md.: I wonder how many people chose Martha Hendrickson because she's the first one on the list. What would happen if you reordered the names?
Gene Weingarten: I believe I know the audience here. I don't think this is a "choose the first person on the list" group.
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Gene Weingarten: You might want to visit the Gene Pool today. It's about Nude Blogging.
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Submit to next week's chat.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 16, 2008 Tuesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Matthew Mosk, Washington Post Campaign Finance Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3220 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post campaign finance reporter Matthew Mosk was online live Tuesday, Sept. 16 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Matthew Mosk: Good morning,
As the economy wheezes, both candidates for president are talking about ways to tackle its revival. John McCain is proposing a 9/11-style commission; Barack Obama proposed closer scrutiny of credit-ratings services. Meanwhile, both candidates are tending to the financial health of their campaign. McCain raised more than $5 million at an event in Florida last night; Obama is set to take in more than $9 million in Beverly Hills.
Lots of politics to discuss with 49 days left to the election.
What's on your minds?
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning! Can you tell us anything about Team Obama's efforts to work the 527 angle? Whom is being asked for money? What issues are they going to hit?
Matthew Mosk: Good morning Raleigh,
There are lots of signs that outside groups are finally heating up as the campaign enters this critical stage. These groups had spent more than $100 million by this point four years ago. So far they have spent only $8 million this year.
As for your question, both Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain have vowed to tamp down the role of 527's (or 501(c)4s) during this year's campaign. But on both sides, there are signs that those requests are starting to fall on deaf ears.
Specifically on the Democratic side, there is a group called Brave New PAC, that seems to be modeling itself on the Swift Boat group from four years ago. It attacks McCain in a new ad on, of all things, his military service.
Here's what Fox News said about it:
"A former Naval Academy midshipman who was imprisoned alongside John McCain is the narrator of a new television ad that bashes the Republican candidate by saying being a prisoner of war is not a good prerequisite for being president The ad, produced by Brave New PAC, a liberal political action committee affiliated with Brave New Films, shows Phillip Butler saying McCain was known as a "very volatile guy" and someone Butler would not like to see "with his finger near the red button." Leighton Woodhouse, communications director for both Brave New Films and the PAC, said two days of national air time has been purchased on cable news channels CNN and MSNBC. He called it a "moderate buy to get the message out." Woodhouse said that they will re-evaluate whether to continue running it if "it seems to be resonating."
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Springfield, Va.: How soon until Rangel is forced out of his chairman's seat? How will his troubles affect the ability of the Congress to pass a budget this year, or at least a continuing resolution -- or do you forsee another shutdown like we had under Clinton?
Matthew Mosk: Interesting question. I have followed this issue as a reader, more than as a reporter. So I asked Chris Lee, who helped break the Rangel story, to help me with an answer. Here's what his assessment was:
"It remains to be seen whether Mr. Rangel will be forced out. He's certainly under pressure to at least temporarily step aside while the ethics committee investigates him. It's not surprising that Republicans have called for him to step aside. But in the last few days the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer did too. And there is some indication that House Democrats are pushing him in that direction as well.
"If he were to step aside, it would be a political blow for House Democrats, who took back the House two years ago in part on their promise to end the 'culture of corruption' that they accused Republicans of fostering. But it's not likely to interfere with passage of a budget. There are plenty of other factors that are slowing that down. Pretty soon Congress will recess so that lawmakers can campaign to keep their seats in the fall election, guaranteeing that the appropriations bills will remain unfinished when the fiscal year closes at the end of September. But many analysts believe the Democrats would like to wait until next year to pass most spending bills anyway, since, if Obama wins, they'd have a Democratic president to sign the bills rather than President Bush."
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washingtonpost.com: Group With Swift Boat Alumni Readies Ads Attacking Obama (Post, Sept. 14)
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Baltimore: Doesn't holding fundraisers after taking public financing -- as mcCain is -- make a mockery of the McCain-Feingold law?
Matthew Mosk: I have a bunch of questions about this, Baltimore, so I'll take a stab at an answer.
McCain-Feingold is not really what applies here. What McCain is doing, legally I'm told, is working the loopholes in the presidential public financing system. You are correct that, after accepting $84 million in public funds, McCain was supposed to be done with fundraising, and use that money to pay for his campaign.
But the Republican National Committee is allowed to continue to raise money. And McCain has turned his attention to helping them do that.
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Los Angeles: Explain the restrictions on the national party committees' expenditures for the presidential campaign, and what the point of public financing is if the Republican National Committee can raise hundreds of millions of dollars and spend it on McCain?
Matthew Mosk: Here's a related question.
The RNC can spend roughly $20 million in direct coordination with the McCain campaign, and that money can be spent on anything, including television ads.
The McCain campaign and the RNC can also coordinate RNC spending on field operations, on efforts to get out the vote, on mail campaigns. That's where a good portion of the RNC's money will go.
The only place they cannot coordinate efforts is on the RNC's so-called independent expenditure efforts.
So, what's the point of the public financing system, in light of all this? Well, the system was created to keeps a presidential candidate from being beholden to big money interests, and to prevent them from having to spend all their time raising money. Based on what's happening this year, you can decide for yourself whether it's still working as it was intended.
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Baltimore: From what I've seen so far, McCain seems to be concentrating his money on TV ad buys while Obama seems to be spending a higher percentage on opening offices and hiring organizers -- the "air game" versus the "ground game." Has anyone collected percentages, or does anyone track these sorts of things historically?
Matthew Mosk: This was correct, at least as of July. But I suspect the spending numbers will have shifted somewhat -- with Sen. Obama increasing his spending on television. I'm told the McCain campaign has not changed its formula much, but that may be because the RNC is slated to handle much of the ground game.
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Wilmington, Del.: Barack Obama is rolling in dough. At what point does his rejection in public financing show itself in an advantage in the number of TV commercials, for example? I haven't seen much of anything from independent Republican 527s to offset Obama's advantage. Down the stretch, doesn't his ability to outspend his opponent reverse McCain's gains? Or can the Republican National Committee meet the challenge?
Matthew Mosk: Hi Wilmington. These are some terrific questions, and I don't have any easy answers for you.
First, there is the question of whether Barack Obama really has a financial edge. Much of that will depend on what he raises in September, particularly online. If he raises $100 million this month, he will probably be on pace to have a decent money advantage. If he raises less than that, it's quite possible he and Sen. McCain (along with the RNC) will have comperable amounts to spend on the campaign.
Let's take your premise, though, and assume Sen. Obama will have a sizeable edge. I'm not aware that we've ever seen a case where one candidate has vastly more to spend than the other. It could prove very important to Obama in the final weeks, if he's able to bombard McCain on television and outspend him in the field. On the other hand, Obama had a significant money advantage in key primaries against Sen. Clinton, and it was not able to help him win in Pennsylvania, Ohio, or West Virginia.
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Columbus, Ohio: Obama's raising $9 million tonight in Hollywood? At $30,000/seat, that's only 300 people, right? Who are the 300 people? And who pays to throw the party? It's gotta cost millions to throw the kind of party that Hollywood billionaires and Barbara Streisand attends. Who foots the bill for that? Didn't the Clintons get in trouble for this kind of thing?
Matthew Mosk: Hi Columbus.
There's nothing illegal about this fundraiser, as far as I can tell. Under FEC rules, you can raise up to $28,500 from each donor, with the money going to the Democratic National Committee. As for who is giving the money, and who organizes the event, those questions can be answered on Oct. 20, when we see disclosure reports for the month of September. I suspect candidates count on no one caring at that point. But I can promise you that we'll be scouring the reports to answer those very questions.
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Salinas, Calif.: Hi Matthew. Will the McCain campaign have to bench Carly Fiorina (their "business expert") during this news cycle regarding the current Wall Street collapse and "fat cat" golden parachutes for CEOs when it is easily pointed out that Fiorina was handed her $21 million package after helming Hewlett-Packard into the weeds? Or do they think that no one will notice?
Matthew Mosk: Hi Salinas,
There are a number of Republican sources of mine who have been wondering about that -- and whether her background would become a liability at some point. So far, there's no sign that it has -- it might be a little to much inside baseball for some folks.
Time will tell, though...
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Fairfax County, Va.: I remember a substantive speech Obama gave this spring about financial regulation. It was really disappointing to see how little coverage it got at the time. Does the content of the speech apply to the current crisis (I think it does), and if so, should the campaign or the press be revisiting that footage? It sometimes seems that if a speech isn't covered within 24 hours, it never is heard from again -- which is frustrating, especially when his opponent's idea of immediate action is to create a commission to study the problem.
washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: The Economy and the Election (washingtonpost.com, 1:30 p.m. ET today)
Matthew Mosk: Hello Fairfax. Good news! My colleague Glenn Kessler will be chatting about this very question this afternoon at 1:30. If the speech has been ignored up until now, at least you will have the chance to revive discussion of it this afternoon!
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Chicago: Perhaps this is slightly out of your domain, but I'm sensing that a shift is starting to take place regarding Palin's impact on the election. She is starting to get the scrutiny that comes from this kind of campaign and I don't think she'll weather it well. Could McCain have peaked too early?
Matthew Mosk: We have a number of questions about the vice presidential picks. I think this question of how Gov. Palin will wear over time is one people are watching closely. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this -- will the McCain campaign be able to sustain the enthusiasm that has surrounded her selection?
I'll offer one thought on this. Palin appears to have tapped into an undercurrent among religious conservatives, who lost their reason to be excited about this campaign after Gov. Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race. I don't see any reason to believe that, now that this group is energized, they will not remain energized.
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Anonymous: Are there any restrictions on what can be shown in independent ads? I understand free speech, but can anyone run a totally substantiated ad saying the most believable lie the weekend before the election, and tilt an election totally on a made up charge? Seriously, if someone finds an alleged ex or a prostitute who claims a candidate was abusive, gay, a foreign agent, etc., and they launch an ad the Sunday or Monday before the Tuesday election, would there be any checks or repercussions?
Matthew Mosk: Okay... this is a really interesting question. And I was stumped. So I just called Michael Toner, a former Federal Election Commission chairman, to see what the rules are.
Here's what Toner told me:
"In terms of the content, what the ads can say, there are no real restrictions. An ad can be as negative as they want it to be.
"Broadcast stations cannot take a candidate's ads off the air, even if they are demonstrably false.
"But, that is not the case with ads by third party groups. There, a station can take an ad off the air if they don't think it's accurate. That's at the discretion of the broadcast company."
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Charlottesville Va:"Could McCain have peaked too early?" I almost spit my coffee on my keyboard. Are you kidding? McCain and Palin are still climbing in the polls. Obama is dropping. "Did Obama peak too early?" is a much better question. But I guess that wouldn't fit the media narrative, would it?
Matthew Mosk: Thanks for this reply, Charlottsville... and please be careful with your coffee!
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Re: Coordination between Candidate and Party: Can you explain that some more? For example, can the coordination produce a TV ad, run it once, and then say "if only a 527 or the party's independent expenditure fund would pay for more air time"?
Matthew Mosk: I think I follow your question here... basically, coordination involves direct communication. So if the candidate's media team writes an ad and asks an outside group to pay to put it on the air, that would not fly.
But, outside groups are very good at reading the signals coming from a campaign. So you might see Sen. Obama start talking about McCain and his close ties to lobbyists. And then, an interest group might create and place a television ad making the same claim. And all that would be allowed, since the two never actually discussed the ad.
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Bethesda, Md.: M Squared, how "honest" is the Obama ad that merely lifts McCain criticisms from liberal commentators like E.J. Dionne? That's like claiming the Cowboys are bad based on the opinion of a Redskins fan!
Matthew Mosk: Howie Kurtz just did an adwatch on this exact question. He thought the practice was, well, suspect. But I'll see if we can dig out a link so you can read his views for yourself.
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Seattle: Surfing around this morning, I caught something I just have to ask. Did McCain's economic advisor just claim that McCain invented the Blackberry?
washingtonpost.com: Adviser says McCain helped create the BlackBerry (AP, Sept. 16)
Matthew Mosk: Here's the response coming from the McCain campaign on this question, which I can share from my colleague Bob Barnes, who is out on the trail with McCain.
Senior aide Matt McDonald said that the senator "laughed" when he heard the comment. "He would not claim to be the inventor or anything, much less the BlackBerry. This was obviously a boneheaded joke by a staffer," McDonald said.
_______________________
Anonymous: If the Obama campaign is putting more faith on field organization, has anyone analyzed how well this organization is structured and being used? My limited personal observation by playing back my answering machine is thus: If calling someone every day begging for money is how they are using their field operation, they don't seem to be spending their time well on things that win votes.
Matthew Mosk: Thanks for this question -- you know, I think it's going to be very hard to tell whether the Obama ground game is successful until Election Day. But I can tell you they have devoted a tremendous amount of money and energy on this aspect of the campaign. As for the fundraising calls you're getting, those are probably the result of a program through which Obama tries to get volunteers to call their neighbors and get them involved in the campaign. I've heard mixed things about that program, including this interesting op-ed piece in The Post on the topic.
Here's the link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/12/AR2008091202658.html
_______________________
Salinas, Calif.: Matthew, regarding Obama's "ground game": I haven't heard any in-depth discussion regarding the impact of the local organizing of new voters nationwide (specifically first time African American and under-25 white voters) who may not have yet shown up on the radar of national polling. With the current polls calling it close, is it possible that there is a vast body of new voters out there who are waiting to come into play in November?
Matthew Mosk: Another interesting ground game question. Thank you Salinas. During the GOP Convention, we met with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis for an on-the-record discussion about the campaign. He said that the goal of the Obama campaign has been to grow the Democratic base, and turn them out. If every Democratic voter came out and voted for Obama, he said, Obama would win. The McCain campaign, by contrast, has focused its attention on persuading moderate Democrats (so-called Reagan Democrats, women who find Gov. Palin appealing, blue collar workers who supported Hillary Clinton, etc.) to cross party lines. That's the formula for a McCain victory.
So understanding that, it kind of makes sense that Obama is focused so much on a formula to getting Democrats to the voting booth, while McCain is pouring energy into advertising that aims to persuade moderates to go with him.
_______________________
Re: Ads: Wow. So seriously, a candidate can run ads that spew demonstrably bald-faced lies, and no one can do anything about it? Ads for products have to be at least not false; why are campaign ads -- inarguably more important than those for mouthwash and dog food -- given so much slack?
Matthew Mosk: I guess when politicians write the laws, they give themselves a lot of latitude. :)
_______________________
Matthew Mosk: Well gang,
Looks like we're out of time. Thanks so much for all the great questions. And don't forget to join my colleague Glenn Kessler at 1:30 to discuss politics and the economy -- the day's hot topic.
Till next time...
Matt
_______________________
washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Obama Ad Says McCain Isn't Running an Honorable Campaign (washingtonpost.com, Sept. 15)
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September 15, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
INSIDE THE TIMES: September 15, 2008
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 2383 words
International
A MODERATE SUNNI LEADER
Is Killed in a Bombing in Iraq
Fouad Ali Hussein al-Douri, a Sunni Arab leader of a citizen patrol group in Baghdad and a proponent of reconciliation and moderation in his neighborhood, was killed in a bombing over the weekend. It was the latest attack aimed at members of the so-called Awakening Councils, and a double blow, because of his efforts to promote reconciliation. PAGE A6
CHINA FIRES LEADERS AFTER DEATHS
China's state news agency announced that the governor and vice governor of Shanxi province lost their jobs after at least 254 villagers died last week when their homes were engulfed by a cascade of muddy iron ore waste from the reservoir of an unlicensed mine. Provincial officials in Shanxi may have also have hurt their credibility in Beijing last week by repeatedly and publicly underestimating the deaths caused by the mud flow. PAGE A10
CONQUERING A PEAK, AND A DIVIDE
A group of Italian priests wanted Kenyans from different backgrounds to overcome an obstacle together, to show that cooperation was possible in their country, which has been torn by violence. And so a group of Kambas and Kikuyus, among others, set out to ascend Africa's second-highest peak, Mount Kenya. Though climbing the mountain required no special equipment, that did not mean it was easy. ''There better not be another war,'' one climber said. ''Because I ain't doing this again.'' PAGE A10
CRISIS HAMPERS THAILAND'S TOURISM
Somchai Wongsawat, Thailand's acting prime minister, lifted the country's state of emergency that began this month after a clash erupted between rival groups of protesters. He also warned that the continuing political crisis was frightening away tourists and tarnishing the country's image as the ''Land of Smiles,'' as tourism groups had noted sharp declines in the number of visitors and hotel occupancy. PAGE A11
A CALL FOR AID TO AFGHANISTAN
One of the most experienced Western envoys in Afghanistan, Francesc Vendrell, said that conditions in the country had deteriorated to their worst point since 2001. He urged a concerted American and foreign response, even before a new American administration took office, because Afghanistan's problems could result in ''a very cold winter'' that threatened to become ''a very hot winter for all of us.'' PAGE A7
2 DIE IN PARIS TOUR BOAT SINKING
Two people died in Paris after a small tourist boat sank Saturday night in the Seine near the Cathedral of Notre Dame. The police were investigating whether the boat hit a bridge or a larger tourist dinner boat. PAGE A11
NATIONAL
THEY WERE SUPPOSED
To Stay on the Farm
As with so many similar tales, the start was benign: in the early 1970s, bighead carp and silver carp were imported from China and eastern Siberia to eat the algae clotting fish farms in the South. But then came the floods in the late '80s and early '90s that helped them to escape their controlled environment. And now fears that they will make their way to the Great Lakes haunts the dreams of environmentalists, business owners and government officials. This Land, by Dan Barry. PAGE A12
O.J. SIMPSON BACK ON TRIAL
If you are the kind of person whose TV viewing has seemed strangely hollow since O.J. Simpson's murder trial ended in 1995, take heart. His new trial, on charges related to what prosecutors contend was a hotel room robbery and kidnapping, begins Monday. And the fact that he was acquitted in the previous case is not necessarily considered an advantage in this one. PAGE A12
THE THIRD-TERM PROBLEM
Fuel provided by Gov. Sarah Palin has Senator John McCain running neck and neck with Senator Barack Obama in the presidential election, according to most national polls. But how well Mr. McCain handles his relationship with President Bush may matter more. Since ratification in 1951 of the constitutional amendment barring any candidate from winning more than two presidential elections, five nominees have sought to extend their party's control of the White House for a third straight term. Four of them failed. The Caucus, by John Harwood. PAGE A21
THE BATTLE FOR WOMEN
Male voters might be forgiven for feeling like the afterthoughts in the presidential campaign; evidence abounds of how hard the two camps are battling over women. For openers, consider that after the news programs, ''Oprah'' is the chief recipient of campaign advertisements this year, with Senator John McCain buying more commercial spots on the show in the last month than Senator Barack Obama. PAGE A21
OBITUARIES
DAVID FOSTER WALLACE, 46
His prodigiously observant, exuberantly plotted, grammatically and etymologically challenging, philosophically probing and culturally hyper-contemporary novels, stories and essays made him an heir to modern virtuosos like Thomas Pynchon and Don DeLillo and a clear influence on younger tour-de-force stylists like Dave Eggers and Jonathan Safran Foer. PAGE A26
NEW YORK REPORT
A PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEM
That Actually Turns a Profit
At a time when public transportation systems around the country are struggling with soaring fuel costs and pinched budgets, the bus system in Rochester is running a surplus and has done something that few others would contemplate: it lowered its single-ride fare. It did so in part by eliminating some low-trafficked routes, avoiding debt and aggressively raising revenue from other sources. PAGE A25
RIVERSIDE AFFIRMS NEW PASTOR
A sharply divided congregation voted to affirm the Rev. Dr. Brad R. Braxton, a Baptist minister and former Rhodes Scholar, as the sixth senior pastor of Riverside Church. Dr. Braxton, 39, follows the long and sometimes fractious tenure of the Rev. Dr. James A. Forbes, the first black senior pastor of the church, who drew criticism from congregants complaining that he neglected Riverside's long tradition of liberal Protestant activism while pouring his energies into increasing black membership. PAGE A24
MODERN EXPLORERS
In 2003, the federal government sold Governors Island to the state and the city for $1, a price some compared favorably to the one Dutch settlers got it for in 1637: two ax heads, a string of beads and some iron nails. Since then, officials from two agencies have been trying to raise the island's profile, and a growing number of people have been discovering a 172-acre spot 800 yards off the tip of Manhattan. PAGE A25
Metropolitan Diary A25
SPORTS
GIRARDI POINTS 10 FINGERS
At Himself for Yankee Woes
Manager Joe Girardi is more comfortable blaming himself than he is in openly dissecting how and why the Yankees fizzled in this year of the usual high expectations. He would rather say that he takes responsibility for the season, because that is easier than trying to explain why the high-profile offense was feeble, why the rookie pitchers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy flopped and why second baseman Robinson Cano and outfielder Melky Cabrera regressed. In fact, the uninspiring season has created questions about Girardi's performance. PAGE D7
RUNNER-UP, ANYBODY?
Of course there is still plenty of football left, and on any given day, any team, etc., etc. Oh, and something about one game at a time. But at least for now, before conference play fully kicks in and the potential for upsets, letdowns and surprises looms every week, No. 1 Southern California, having eviscerated the former No. 5 Ohio State, 35-3, has sent an ominous message to the rest of the college football world -- let the race for No. 2 begin. PAGE D9
BUSINESS
HOW A SERIES OF MISTAKES
Took a Toll on United Shares
The swift, sharp and short-lived collapse of United Airlines shares last Monday, when investors wiped out $1 billion of the market value of United's parent company within minutes of an erroneous news flash, was followed by a week of finger-pointing. New-media analysts say there is plenty of blame to go around. ''This is what happens when everything goes on autopilot and there are no human controls in place or those controls fail,'' said one new-media executive. PAGE C1
TEXTBOOK DOWNLOADS
As an option to textbook prices that can easily reach triple figures, some authors and publishers have created Internet versions that allow free or reduced price access to texts. CourseSmart, for example, allows students to subscribe to a textbook and read it online, with the option of highlighting and printing out portions of it. The price is generally half what a book costs. PAGE C3
BIRD DELIVERS THE DIRT
American political campaigns may be known for their dirt, but when is the last time one of them had a virtual bird dropping a load of excrement on a candidate? Last Monday, the ruling Conservative Party of Canada introduced a Web site, notaleader.ca, that did just that to Stephane Dion, the head of the opposition Liberal Party. And that was just one of the site's odd features. PAGE C3
ELECTIONS FOR SALE
Predicting elections by tracking the sales of assorted campaign merchandise; an Internet video site established to cover drilling issues in Texas; a State Department video contest on the meaning of democracy, with YouTube as host; and Hollywood types providing tutorials for Chinese film and television moguls on the Tao of show business. Media Talk. PAGE C4
BIGGER, BLURRIER PICTURES
Many hotel chains, like their guests, are replacing their old picture tube TVs with new L.C.D. or plasma flat screens. But most have not spent the money needed to add high-definition service, resulting in stretched images with lower resolution that provide a picture that looks worse than it would have on a standard picture tube set. PAGE C5
A LEVI'S LOGO
Harking back to the days when a TV program might be named for a single sponsor (like ''Colgate Comedy Hour''), the Levi's 501 button-fly line of jeans is joining with Logo, a network aimed at gay and lesbian viewers, for a campaign called ''Logo Unbuttoned.'' The title echoes the phrase ''Live Unbuttoned,'' the theme of a worldwide campaign for Levi's 501. PAGE C5
An Anchor Lets Her Hair Down C1
Well
6 COMMON PARENTING STUMBLES,
When Mealtime Is Upon Them
When finicky eaters can defeat even the most resolute parent, or force one into making just anything, healthy variety can fall by the wayside. A few simple strategies help ease children into new food choices and take the edge off stubbornness at mealtime. Page H2
AN OLD REMEDY RE-EMERGES
When a child exhibited signs of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, the doctor recommended an old solution: fish oil. Some doctors who practice integrative medicine have been prescribing this treatment. But with a lack of research, and controversy about abandoning established medications for a home remedy, the approach has been slow to take off. Page H2
EXERCISES IN SELF-POSSESSION
Poor impulse control might be one way to describe the behavior of your average toddler. It can be hard to keep up with brains that show new changes almost daily. But scientists believe that certain cognitive exercises can help accelerate the path to self-possession and control, what researchers are calling executive function. They also believe the skills are more closely related to school success than I.Q. is. Page H4
GEE, DISCIPLINE'S HARD
A survey of 2,100 parents showed that 1 in 3 believed they could not effectively discipline their children. But what is effective discipline? The confusion may come from the belief that it is primarily the meting out of punishment and consequences, but both can reinforce bad behavior. Instead, positive reinforcement when children are being good can be more effective. Page H5
ARTS
Smithsonian's New Secretary
Is Charged With a Herculean Task
The days of Learjets and luxury hotel visits are over for the secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, which was nearly run into the ground financially. Its new secretary, G. Wayne Clough, has to do more than abstain from such extravagances. He has to whip the institution's multiple museums, galleries and research centers into a tightly run machine. Page E1
A GUITAR WITH ROCK-STAR STATUS
The Fender Jazzmaster was largely ignored by the people it was meant to appeal to. But it was embraced by plenty of others, including Elvis Costello, and Johnny Marr of the Smiths. A recent gig at the Knitting Factory to celebrate the instrument's 50th birthday featured the college-radio guitar heroes like Tom Verlaine of Television and J Mascis of Dinosaur Jr. Page E5
Editorial
CHAIRMAN RANGEL
Mounting embarrassment for taxpayers and Congress makes it imperative that Representative Charles Rangel step aside as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee while his ethical problems are investigated. Page A24
GROUND ZERO'S LINGERING VICTIMS
Seven years after terrorist attacks destroyed the World Trade Center towers, it is clear that many workers who responded to the crisis are suffering lingering effects from breathing in toxic dust and fumes. What is less clear is how well the nation will treat those whose health problems are still emerging or yet to be seen. Page A24
GAMBLING WITH MEDICAID
Rhode Island is seeking a federal waiver to change much of its Medicaid program from an open-ended entitlement with no limit on spending to a capped budget with fixed expenditure limits. Prudent leaders would be wise to watch what happens before following this path. Page A24
Op-Ed
WILLIAM KRISTOL
Is 2008 just a strange year, or is something big happening? Are we seeing one of America's periodic political and cultural awakenings, one of our occasional, almost-convulsive democratic reactions to what is felt to be too great a distance between the people and their ''establishments''? Page A25
PAUL KRUGMAN
Lehman Brothers, a major investment bank, is apparently about to go under. And Henry Paulson apparently believes that playing Russian roulette with the financial system is his best option. Page A25
DRILL, BABY, DRILL?
Two Op-Ed articles -- one by David S. Abraham, a former official at the Office of Management and Budget, and another by Robert Hahn of the American Enterprise Institute and Peter Passell of the Milken Institute -- discuss the economics and environmental impact of opening more federal land for oil drilling. Page A25
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The New York Times
September 15, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
Both Sides Seeking to Be What Women Want
BYLINE: By KATE ZERNIKE
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 1464 words
For evidence of how intensely the presidential candidates are battling over women, consider their investment in Oprah Winfrey. After the news programs, ''Oprah'' is the chief recipient of campaign advertisements this year, with Senator John McCain buying more commercial spots on the program in the last month than Senator Barack Obama -- even though Ms. Winfrey herself is backing Mr. Obama.
Mr. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, is teaming stars from soap operas and ''Sex and the City'' with congresswomen in contested states. Mr. McCain, the Republican nominee, is sending tailored mailings on taxes to women who drive minivans, watch ''The Biggest Loser'' or ''Lost'' and know their way to the nearest big-box store.
And both campaigns are trying to highlight the issues they think will draw more support from women, with Mr. Obama emphasizing pay equity and abortion rights and Mr. McCain playing up his ''maverick'' image and raising questions of respect.
The fierce, and complicated, competition for the female vote has been escalated by Mr. McCain's selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate. Even before the Palin selection, Mr. Obama was moving to shore up support from women, especially those who had supported Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
Now Obama campaign officials are stepping up their efforts, and both campaigns are recalibrating pitches to women to navigate cultural forces and policy positions that can give them an advantage.
In particular, they are competing for working-class white women, the group that could be especially pivotal in the states likely to decide the election.
For Mr. Obama, the push for women means emphasizing that he is running against Mr. McCain, not Ms. Palin, and drawing attention to Mr. McCain's record on issues that particularly resonate with women: his opposition to abortion rights, his votes against expanded health insurance for children and pay equity legislation, and his support for private investment accounts for Social Security, of concern among white women over 50, a group Mr. Obama has had trouble winning over.
This week, Obama events have a theme, ''Women for the Change We Need,'' as the campaign tries to connect with women in conference calls, rallies and registration drives.
The campaign will also begin increasing advertising on television programs watched by women -- besides ''Oprah,'' some of the biggest investments for the campaigns have been during ''Dr. Phil,'' ''Live With Regis and Kelly'' and ''The Ellen DeGeneres Show.''
Each campaign is also beginning to put more spots on Lifetime, and a McCain media buyer recently lamented that the Food Network did not accept political advertising.
Mr. McCain will continue to campaign this week with Ms. Palin, with a rally on Tuesday in Ohio, an important state for working-class women. The two are expected to be together frequently in the seven remaining weeks of the campaign.
Beyond that, the McCain campaign's strategy is to emphasize personality, capitalizing on the booming celebrity of Ms. Palin, highlighting Mr. McCain's story as a war hero, showcasing their families, and trying to keep alive the anger about sexism that many women felt during Mr. Obama's primary campaign against Mrs. Clinton.
Democrats have relied heavily on women in recent presidential elections -- so much so that McCain strategists say they believe that to win they need to run even among women over all, and lead among white women.
Women have voted in greater proportions than men for almost three decades -- in 2004, nearly nine million more women voted than men, 67.3 million to 58.5 million. But the hard-fought candidacy of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain's selection of Ms. Palin as the first woman on a Republican presidential ticket have put new cultural and ideological elements more fully into play.
''It's because there were these women who supported Hillary Clinton, some of whom so visibly said they might not support Obama or might sit it out or vote for John McCain,'' said Susan Carroll, a senior scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers who has written extensively on the gender gap in voting. ''That really called attention to the fact that women were going to be critically important.''
Mr. McCain's strategists do not expect to win more than a small fraction of Mrs. Clinton's supporters. But they do see blocs of women they think they can win.
Democrats have been accused of taking women for granted, in part because they have been able to count on them: More women have voted Democratic in the last four presidential cycles. More men have voted Republican in all but two of the last nine, the exceptions being 1976, when Jimmy Carter was the Democratic candidate, and 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected.
But white women have voted Republican in all but two of the last nine presidential elections. In 1992, they were evenly divided between the first President Bush and Mr. Clinton; in 1996, they voted for Mr. Clinton, 48 percent to 43 percent. And while unmarried women have consistently given their majority to Democrats, married women gave President Bush the majority in 2004.
''It's about how much Democrats can maximize the gender difference and how much the Republicans can hold it down,'' Ms. Carroll said.
The McCain campaign's polling identifies two ripe demographics: So-called Wal-Mart women, who shop at the store at least once a week, earn less than $60,000 a year, have less than a college education, and hold a poor impression of Mr. Bush; they tend to call themselves independents and say their economic situation is fair or poor, listing the economy as their prime election issue. McCain strategists believe this group will be attracted by the ticket's ''maverick'' image.
The second group is women in important suburbs in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The McCain campaign is also on the offensive in trying to stoke anger about perceived sexism. The campaign has designated a squad of prominent Republican women to call out what they see as gender-based smears against Ms. Palin. Last week, it released two spots accusing Mr. Obama of being ''disrespectful'' toward her.
Mr. Obama appears to have a strong advantage among young, unmarried women. But, said Anita Dunn, a senior adviser: ''We are not ceding women with children. We have a candidate whose wife is a working mom with two young children.''
In part, the Obama campaign is emphasizing the Republican ticket's opposition to abortion rights. The campaign ran a radio advertisement during the Republican convention calling the party's platform on abortion ''extreme'' because it did not include an exception for rape or incest.
But that issue alone may not swing many women. In a Gallup poll in May, 14 percent of women said that a candidate for major office must share their view on abortion (about the same percentage as among men). For half the women in the poll, abortion was one issue among many affecting their decision.
The Obama campaign is also emphasizing Mr. McCain's opposition to pay equity legislation, with a television spot that began running on Sunday saying that he ''just doesn't get it.''
The Obama campaign's focus on women this week will start with a conference call Wednesday between 20,000 women in leadership positions nationwide and Mr. Obama's running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, who the campaign believes commands respect among women, particularly because of his advocacy for laws against domestic violence. Mr. Biden and Mr. Obama will then hold rallies with women Thursday and Friday, setting up a weekend of voter registration, beauty shop canvassing and mobilizing events.
To secure working-class women, the campaign sees Mrs. Clinton as its best surrogate, and has sent her to Florida, Nevada and Ohio, states she won in the primaries. In recent days, female aides and surrogates to Mr. Obama have also begun arguing in television appearances that Mr. McCain has a history of insensitivity toward women -- recalling a joke he made about Chelsea Clinton's appearance when she was a teenager, or his going along at a South Carolina event last year when a woman used a coarse term to refer to Mrs. Clinton. (Mr. McCain now frequently lauds Mrs. Clinton.)
Though there is little question that Ms. Palin's bursting onto the scene has put pressure on the Obama campaign, it is unclear how much difference she will make. Geraldine A. Ferraro created a small bounce in the polls when Walter F. Mondale chose her as his running mate in 1984, making her the first woman on a major party ticket. But in the end, the nation went in a landslide for President Ronald Reagan.
''Ultimately in that election,'' Ms. Carroll said, ''people voted the top of the ticket.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: The Obama team is using Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, campaigning Sunday in Ohio, to reach working-class women. (PHOTOGRAPH BY BRIDGET COMMISSO-CASWELL/MORNING JOURNAL, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Gov. Sarah Palin, prominent on signs at a rally in Pennsylvania last week, has affected competition for support from women. (PHOTOGRAPH BY CAROLYN KASTER/ASSOCIATED PRESS) CHART: How Women Have Voted in Presidential Races: According to exit polls. (Sources: Exit polls conducted by The New York Times, CBS News, Voter Research and Surveys, Voter News Service and Edison/Mitofsky)
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The New York Times
September 15, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
ON NYTIMES.COM
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 4
LENGTH: 211 words
The Asian carp population in the Illinois River has exploded over the last decade, threatening native fish and affecting commercial fisherman. The jumping fish can knock boaters unconscious.
nytimes.com/national
LESSON PLANS Teaching Without a Script A Philadelphia high school teacher explains his loyalty to his school, where art, performance and learning are allowed to meet.
nytimes.com/opinion
VIDEO: OBAMA CAMPAIGN
Seeks Momentum
Senator Barack Obama is opening up a multifaceted campaign against Senator John McCain to try to regain his momentum and move past the fascination with Gov. Sarah Palin.
nytimes.com/politics
Talk to the Newsroom Amy Harmon
The national correspondent covering the impact of science and technology on American life, will answer questions from readers.
nytimes.com/media
Baghdad Bureau Petraeus's Farewell Letter
In one of his last acts as the top American commander in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus has drafted a letter of thanks for the troops and underscored his view that the struggle to bring stability to Iraq is far from over.
nytimes.com/baghdadbureau
INTERACTIVE: ELECTORAL MAP
Get state-by-state analysis of the presidential campaign from The Times, or map out your own projections.
nytimes.com/electionguide
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The New York Times
September 15, 2008 Monday
Late Edition - Final
An Anchor Lets Down Her Hair
BYLINE: By DAVID CARR
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; THE MEDIA EQUATION; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1149 words
The election season has been very good to a woman who seems to be benefiting from her status as an outsider in terms of gender and history. That would be Katie Couric, the anchor of the CBS Evening News.
Sure, Gov. Sarah Palin makes headlines while Ms. Couric just reads them. And Ms. Couric has yet to prove that all of the lucre and attention lavished on her debut an anchor almost exactly two years ago was a smart business bet. Early efforts at innovation fell flat in the ratings, and a subsequent return to the evening news template left the impression that Ms. Couric was starring in her own hostage video.
''It's clear that in the beginning, it was hard for viewers to accept a woman in the anchor role and at the same time, we tried to re-imagine the newscast, which was probably too much all at the same time,'' she said over the phone from her office in Manhattan.
But once she left the anchor desk, she was everywhere at the conventions -- soliciting people in a video on Digg about what questions to ask as a reporter for a nightly Webcast (cbsnews.com), seeking out the kind of conversations that made ''Today'' such a monster in the ratings. There was no convention bump in the ratings for Ms. Couric, and CBS and she remain a long way from precious bragging rights. But the odd anchor out has been in the middle of things for the last few weeks.
''It felt liberating to get beyond the limitations of the 22-minute newscast,'' Ms. Couric said about the convention coverage on the Web. ''Every night we had an hour, or an hour and change, to really flesh out some of the stories that were under way.''
It could be argued that with fundamental assumptions about race, gender and politics up for grabs in an election that might pivot on things besides policy, having a woman in the anchor chair with a history of roaming across all kinds of subject matter might be a pretty good asset.
While I was at the Democratic convention in Denver, I noticed -- and thought nothing of -- the former presidential candidate Michael Dukakis making his way toward security. That was until Ms. Couric buttonholed him.
''This obviously brings back some memories and some disappointments,'' she said, blinking into the sun, adding, ''How do you think you screwed it up?''
A remarkably revealing conversation ensued with Mr. Dukakis concluding, ''Look, I owe the American people an apology. If I had beaten the old man, you would never have heard of the kid and then we wouldn't be in this mess.''
That conversation won't change the political landscape, but it demonstrated what has been apparent for the last two decades to anybody with a television: Ms. Couric is a highly skilled interviewer, and people tend to tell her stuff.
''All of these media worlds are colliding and I am enjoying putting the puzzle together in a way that plays to some of our strengths as a news organization without all the time pressures and restrictions on broadcast real estate,'' she said. ''It was just much more conducive to the things I think I can do well.''
During our chat, I made a side bet with Ms. Couric that I could get through this column without using the p-word (you know, the one that rhymes with ''jerky''), and I plan on collecting. But Ms. Couric's online work and expanded broadcast efforts should remind viewers just how she ended up as America's broadcast sweetheart. She's naturally funny, she can be impertinent and, um, quirky.
In the run-up to the primary, she grilled 10 candidates on issues of character, including asking John Edwards about infidelity, a piece of tape that had a nice afterlife. In Jordan, she asked Barack Obama why he would not give due credit to the surge.
At the Republican convention in her role anchoring election coverage, she got Steve Schmidt, the seldom seen overlord of the McCain campaign, to come on camera and throw some grenades. And her interview with Cindy McCain in which the Republican candidate's wife displayed confusion about her husband's position on abortion kicked up a lot of notice.
Rick Kaplan, executive producer of ''CBS Evening News,'' said that a recent vote of confidence from Les Moonves, chief executive of CBS, and a natural settling-in period has made third place bearable if not actually comfortable.
''What sometimes gets lost in all the noise is that she is a superb journalist,'' he said. ''She will outwork you and outinterview you and that is going to show up handsomely for her. We are in the second act of a three-act movie.''
That act won't include a debate. The Commission on Presidential Debates went with three broadcast Brahmins -- Tom Brokaw, Jim Lehrer and Ms. Couric's colleague Bob Schieffer -- a significant disappointment for an anchor looking for traction and who missed out on the primary debates for a variety of reasons.
But even as she ended up on the sidelines of the debate game, Ms. Couric also became a character in the news last week when the McCain campaign used a piece of videotape of her saying, ''one of the great lessons of that campaign is the continued and accepted role of sexism in American life'' in an attack ad on Mr. Obama.
Never mind that she was actually talking about reaction to the Clinton campaign and that the use of the bit was deeply cynical and misleading; it etches the fact that this campaign has moved into Ms. Couric's wheelhouse.
''This is a great story for everyone, clearly,'' she said. ''But with the candidacy of Hillary Clinton and the emergence of Governor Palin, it is also worthwhile to have a female perspective on the news as well.''
''You'd like the gender issues to fall away, just as you hope that at some point the race thing will fade,'' she said. ''The road to gender equality really starts when the novelty wears off. And I think my presence anchoring a nightly newscast is much less jarring than it might have been initially.''
It is telling that when the McCain campaign was looking for a soft place to land Governor Palin's first interview, they turned to Charles Gibson at ABC, not Ms. Couric. It would have been fun to watch given the implied subtext: ''Hey, Governor, I invented spunky; I've had a colonoscopy on live network television, so let's get started on yours.''
The last time I wrote about Ms. Couric, I got in a bit of a jam for suggesting that if the best man for the anchor job was a woman, it wasn't the same job anymore. The implied sexism of the statement was lost on me, but not on readers and Ms. Couric herself.
So let me amend it here: Ms. Couric may never bring to mind Uncle Walt, but at a time when mainstream media is adopting the tools of the insurgency, the Olympian remove of network news is no longer an option. And as long as the job of anchoring network news keeps changing, no one, including me, should make a lot of assumptions about what kind of person should be sitting in that chair.
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USA TODAY
September 15, 2008 Monday
FINAL EDITION
Scrutiny over lobbyist leaves out key points
BYLINE: Mark Memmott
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 5A
LENGTH: 288 words
Democrat Barack Obama's presidential campaign released an ad Sunday called His Administration. The campaign says the ad is in response to a Time magazine report that Republican candidate John McCain has chosen "one of Washington's steadiest and most senior inside players" -- lobbyist William Timmons -- to plan a potential McCain administration.
The script
Narrator: "His campaign is run by lobbyists. Now we find out McCain's White House will be lobbyist-run too.
"McCain just picked a Washington super lobbyist to plan his administration. A 'consummate insider' who lobbies for oil companies. The credit card industry. Corporate special interests rigging the system against hard-working Americans ... pushing failed Bush economics.
"Does that sound like change to you? We just can't afford more of the same."
The images
The ad begins with a picture of McCain that's covered over with photos of McCain staffers. Two photos of Timmons follow. Two of the final images show President Bush and McCain together.
Reality check
The ad continues a theme that the Obama campaign has been pushing for weeks: McCain would be "more of the same" and would continue many of the policies and practices of the Bush administration.
It does not point out that McCain was instrumental in exposing the misdeeds of onetime lobbyist Jack Abramoff or that the Obama campaign allows lobbyists to volunteer on its behalf and to work for it so long as they are not currently registered to lobby. Last year, the non-partisan website PolitiFact.com called Obama's claim that he doesn't take money from lobbyists only "half true."
Where it's playing
The ad, Obama's campaign says, will be on some national cable networks and local stations in some battleground states.
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September 15, 2008 Monday
Every Edition
Hispanic Businesses Get Out the Vote;
Recruitment Campaigns, Immigration Debate Spur Latinos
BYLINE: Alejandro Lazo; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: FINANCIAL; Pg. D01
LENGTH: 680 words
Hispanic businesses and Spanish-language media, galvanized by the immigration debates of recent years, are sponsoring a bevy of civic engagement and get-out-the-vote efforts in the Washington area.
Some are part of larger national campaigns, spurred both by discussions of immigration policy and by Republican and Democratic interest in recruiting Hispanic voters. The majority of the efforts are nonpartisan and aimed at getting Hispanics to register and show up on Election Day.
The Ayuda Business Coalition runs one such campaign, focusing on Northern Virginia, particularly Prince William County. The nonprofit was formed last year by business owners opposed to the county's crackdown on illegal immigration, calling it bad for the local economy. It consists of more than 100 local, Hispanic-owned businesses.
Ayuda has set up registration booths at some members' grocery stores and at soccer matches. It also plans to conduct demonstrations on how to use voting machines and run spots on Spanish-language radio with the tagline, "Si no votas, no cuentas," or, "If you don't vote, you don't count."
José Marinay, the owner of a real estate settlement company in Annapolis, joined the Ayuda coalition last year when he saw sales at his Smart Choice Settlements office in Prince William County plummet. Marinay said he had donated to Democratic campaigns in the past but had not been involved in lobbying or voter mobilization efforts.
"Immigration was having a tremendous effect in Prince William County because nobody wanted to buy there and it was like they were shutting the door down on us," Marinay said. "There was nothing I could do, and I was trying to find a way to make a difference."
Both Republicans and Democrats are courting the Hispanic vote. The Service Employees International Union, which has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), has been getting its members to register Hispanic voters by phone and on the streets. The Republican National Hispanic Assembly, on behalf of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), plans to hold its own roundtable discussions for Hispanic business owners before the election, emphasizing tax issues. It also plans to host Hispanic happy hours.
"The Hispanic vote in Virginia could be pivotal," said Raul "Danny" Vargas, the founder of Herndon marketing company VARCom Solutions and chairman of the assembly. "What you will see is that there are a number of business leaders that are engaged in the political process, whereas they had not been before."
Hispanic media are also playing a stepped-up role, donating air time and advertising space to get Hispanic voters to the polls. Local newspapers Washington Hispanic and El Tiempo Latino, a publication of The Washington Post Co., are donating ad space to the campaign called "Ya Es Hora," or "It's Time," run by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials in Los Angeles.
That campaign, backed nationally by the Spanish-language media giant Univision, has been encouraging immigrants to gain citizenship and vote this year.
Alberto Avendaño, associate publisher and editor in chief of El Tiempo Latino, said the campaign was born out of the demonstrations by immigrants in 2006.
"This year, the community is really energized," Avendaño said.
The local affiliate of Telemundo is partnering with the nonprofit Voto Latino, which will run public service announcements and give political analysis, said Maria Teresa Petersen, director of the Voto Latino campaign.
The U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce plans to launch get-out-the-vote efforts in October to try to mobilize voters through its member chambers, including ones in the District, Rockville, Germantown and Herndon. It is the first time that the chamber, which has also stepped up its lobbying and policy efforts in the past two years, has attempted to mobilize voters, said David Ferreira, vice president of government affairs for the commerce.
"We decided to get involved in this election once we saw that comprehensive immigration [legislation] failed," he said. "We knew we needed to activate the Hispanic community."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Mirna Urias mans a phone for the Service Employees International Union's push to get Hispanics to register to vote. Other local groups are making similar efforts.
IMAGE; By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post; Christian Gonzalez, right, recruited Claudia Amurrio to Barack Obama's campaign. Volunteer efforts targeting Hispanic voters are on the rise.
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September 15, 2008 Monday
Suburban Edition
Fey-as-Palin Wins the Early Vote On 'SNL'
BYLINE: Tom Shales
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1065 words
"Saturday Night Live" season premieres are almost always on the shaky side, and the 34th season debut was no exception. It took off, however, like a skyrocket.
Saturday's "cold open" sketch -- a "Nonpartisan Message From Sarah Palin & Hillary Clinton" -- rose to the occasion and then kept rising, right into the stratosphere. Former writer and cast member Tina Fey, making a brief return to the show, played the Republican vice presidential candidate, with pregnant cast member Amy Poehler doing her sure-fire, time-tested Clinton right beside her.
In the parlance of the show (and comedians generally), they "killed."
Their strong showing helped make up for the fact that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama -- who was scheduled to make a guest appearance at least once during the program -- didn't show. Executive producer Lorne Michaels got the bad news Friday night at 10, about 24 hours after hearing from the Obama campaign that the senator definitely would appear.
"His people called and said they felt they had to shut it down because of the storm," meaning Hurricane Ike, Michaels said yesterday by phone from New York. "I pleaded with them to wait and make the decision on Saturday morning, but they felt they had to do it then. There was a sensitivity to how it would be perceived -- whether he would be criticized for doing it while disaster struck."
Did he make the right decision? "It was certainly the wrong decision for me," Michaels said. "Do I think there's an oversensitivity in this area? Yes." But Michaels said he would be happy to have Obama appear on a future show, provided a good sketch can be devised. "It was an enormous disappointment," Michaels said, "but they were very pleasant about it -- 'Please have us back again' and all that."
In the words of the announcement from the Obama camp: "In light of the unfolding crisis in Texas, Senator Obama has decided it is no longer appropriate to appear on 'Saturday Night Live' tomorrow evening."
The monologue, by guest host and Olympic swimming champ Michael Phelps, was to have been built around Obama and would have included an additional cameo by action star Chuck Norris. But Norris, too, canceled because of the hurricane, and William Shatner was enlisted as his replacement. Shatner was already en route from Los Angeles via chartered airplane when Obama dropped out; the monologue was reworked so that it would still include a Shatner cameo.
"It was great of him to do it," Michaels said of Shatner. Michaels said Obama was to have returned briefly for a second appearance, during the "Weekend Update" segment, but that was obviously scuttled, too.
Last-minute catastrophes necessitating last-minute changes and rewrites are nothing new for Michaels and "Saturday Night Live." Fey wasn't even certain she could appear, Michaels said, since she was shooting an episode of her own hit prime-time comedy, "30 Rock," all day Friday and until 5 p.m. Saturday. Because Oprah Winfrey was guest-starring on the episode, the shooting schedule could not be changed.
"She came by Friday night and we rehearsed," Michaels said of Fey. The sketch was written by "Update" co-anchor Seth Meyers with assists from Fey and Poehler, and every punch line got roars from the 400 people in the studio audience.
Poehler as Clinton: "I believe that diplomacy should be the cornerstone of any foreign policy."
Fey as Palin: "And I can see Russia from my house!"
Poehler: "I believe global warming is caused by man."
Fey: "And I believe it's just God huggin' us closer."
While Poehler's Clinton tried to speak seriously to the issue of sexism, Fey's Palin mimed posing for photos, including one in which she loaded and fired a rifle -- all the time maintaining a big, occasionally seductive grin on her face.
Michaels said that to have followed the Fey-Poehler sketch with an Obama appearance would have been a sensation. But the sketch, and Fey's dead-on impression of Palin -- to whom she famously bears a definite resemblance -- went over so explosively that everything that came after it seemed anticlimactic, even though it only took up the first five of the show's 90 minutes (including about 30 minutes of commercials).
CNN was reporting Fey's return to the show as national news Friday, as well as the planned appearance by Obama. "The entire country cast Tina in that part," Michaels said; hundreds of e-mails and letters from viewers had all but demanded that Fey play Palin, almost from the hour that Palin was announced as John McCain's running mate.
The tremendous buzz was reflected in the ratings. Early overnight figures showed the "Saturday Night Live" season premiere earned a 7.4 rating and 18 percent share of viewers watching at that hour -- the highest for a season premiere since 2001, and the highest for any "SNL" telecast since Dec. 14, 2002, when Al Gore was host. The numbers were up 64 percent over last year's season premiere, according to Nielsen "metered market" data.
Phelps sometimes looked stiff and lost in thought during his sketches, yet just as often, he brightened to the task and came through. He was perhaps funniest during the "Michael Phelps Diet" sketch, in which he outlined the contents of his 12,000-calorie-a-day intake. Earlier, he did a good job as a home-educated rube in a high school "quiz bowl" sketch.
Unfortunately, the show never again rose to the dizzy heights of those first five minutes. Asked whether the first show of a season had ever also been the best show of a season, Michaels said: "Almost never. Generally it takes us a while to shake down."
In special scheduling for the presidential year, "SNL" will be seen 10 more times prior to Election Day -- three more Saturday nights and seven prime-time specials.
Saturday night's musical guest, Lil Wayne, didn't perform his second number until the last few minutes of the broadcast, perhaps because the song had worried NBC censors. Some of the lyrics, according to the closed captions: "I like that like a lollipop . . . Shawty wanna hump . . . You'd know I'd love to touch your lovely lady lumps."
Among the distinctions of his performance, Lil Wayne wore his jeans below his buttocks while they clung for dear life in front. "I thought he was amazing," Michaels said of Lil Wayne's performance. And of the rapper's pants, the producer said: "I'm not saying you should wear yours that way, but clearly it's our job to set trends."
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Dana Edelson -- Nbc Via Associated Press; A role she was born to play? Tina Fey as the GOP veep nominee.
IMAGE; By Dana Edelson -- Nbc Via Associated Press; Tina Fey, left, creates a dead-on Sarah Palin to Amy Poehler's time-tested Hillary Clinton on "Saturday Night Live."
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Gibson Trod A Fine Line In Interviews
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1406 words
For a precious few moments, the presidential campaign wasn't about Sarah Palin's hairstyle or her Naughty Monkey red shoes or her daughter's pregnancy.
Charlie Gibson was all business during three interviews with the Alaska governor last week, pressing her on her qualifications to take over as president and her knowledge of national and international issues. The ABC anchor navigated a minefield in which he would have been slammed for going easy on America's newest celebrity and denounced if he were seen as hectoring her. When he finally got around to asking what everyone in America has been debating -- how can she juggle five kids and the vice presidency? -- Gibson prefaced it by saying, "Is that a sexist question to ask?"
No national candidate in modern history, not even Hillary Clinton, has ever been lambasted and lionized in quite the way Palin is. Why, for instance, do so many journalists feel compelled to mention her looks? Why are her family choices at the center of a noisy, cable-driven debate? Why are some Republicans convinced that the media apply a different standard to conservative women -- and journalists just as convinced that legitimate reporting is being written off as sexist snobbery?
Gibson managed to cut through that static. Instead of the touchy-feely stuff, there were questions about Iraq, Pakistan, Russia, abortion, gun control and global warming. Gibson did no grandstanding, even as he followed up on questions three or four times. And if he seemed like an unsmiling professor peering over his glasses at an earnest graduate student, well, the first time a vice presidential nominee submits to journalistic scrutiny is an oral exam of sorts.
"The headlines are about her answers, not Charlie's interview, and that was our goal from the start," ABC Senior Vice President Jeffrey Schneider says.
The McCain camp decided early that Palin's first interview should go to one of the network anchors, so she would be seen as hitting major-league pitching before a large audience. Gibson, 65, was viewed as fair-minded, McCain aides said, in part because of the way he has handled several interviews with President Bush. The plan is to give CBS's Katie Couric a chance later on, and perhaps NBC's Brian Williams as well.
The McCain team was satisfied with the interviews but found Gibson a bit condescending at times, a judgment that is firmly in the beholder's eye. New York Times critic Alessandra Stanley said he was "at times supercilious."
But when Palin seemed puzzled by a question about the Bush Doctrine -- which has several possible meanings -- Gibson explained what he meant without making it sound like a gotcha moment. Earlier, however, he did follow up on her answer about not hesitating to become McCain's running mate by wondering: "Didn't that take some hubris?"
Some conservatives criticized Gibson for raising religion by asking Palin whether she considers the Iraq conflict a "holy war." But how can it be unfair to ask about her own words, in a church, that "our national leaders are sending U.S. soldiers on a task that is from God"?
She is likely to have an easier time tomorrow in her second interview, with Fox News's Sean Hannity. The day McCain picked Palin, Hannity declared: "She is a rock star, a rising star, a governor with more experience than Barack Obama ever dreamed of having."
It was conservative pundits who originally talked up Palin. She gained attention last year when a Weekly Standard cruise happened to sail into Alaska, and an aide invited the magazine's top editors, Fred Barnes and Bill Kristol, to lunch with the governor.
"We talked for 1 1/2 hours," said Barnes, who lived in Alaska as an elementary school student. "I was impressed enough to write a story. I wasn't thinking of Sarah Palin as a vice presidential running mate for anyone. Nor did I see the star quality she obviously has. I saw her as a smart, very confident, very pretty governor."
His June 2007 profile called Palin "the most popular governor in America," discussed her "Christian faith" and praised her "adherence to principle."
Other conservative commentators took notice; radio host Laura Ingraham called Palin a potential president last summer after meeting her at a luncheon in Alaska. And a number of the men paid tribute to the governor's looks. In February, Rush Limbaugh told a caller from Alaska: "Yeah, plus she's a housewife; before that, she's a babe. I saw a picture. . . . The babe is the icing-on-the-cake aspect, something the Democrats can't claim on their side."
The same month, National Review writer Stephen Sprueill called Palin a "solidly conservative (and ridiculously good-looking) Republican." In the American Spectator, Thomas Cheplick wrote that "the beautiful conservative Republican governor of Alaska would be an ideal choice" for vice president. Last fall, a Wonkette blogger called Palin "the hottest governor in all 50 states" and "my total girl crush."
A similar thread runs through the recent coverage. "To start with the obvious, she's attractive," writes Time's Joe Klein. The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan calls Palin "this beautiful girl." "Large numbers of Americans think she's hot," said Salon's Gary Kamiya, whose piece was accompanied by a photo illustration of Palin as a dominatrix.
"She's sexy. Men want a sexy woman," CNBC's Donny Deutsch told viewers. "Women want to idealize about a sexy woman. . . . She's a lioness. . . . Women want to be her. Men want to mate with her." Slate's David Plotz confessed that he's been dreaming about Palin and that "a couple of conservative men I know have mentioned that they've been having sexual fantasies about the Alaska governor."
What, exactly, is going on here?
"The fact that she's a fairly youthful woman adds to her appeal," San Francisco Chronicle reporter Carolyn Lochhead says. "It has nothing to do with being qualified for vice president. It's a fact of human nature. Women routinely use their looks, and men routinely fall for it."
That, of course, doesn't mean that journalists have to buy into the narrative. "The media should focus on her policies rather than her looks," Lochhead says. "But if her looks are news, I guess that's part of the story."
Peggy Drexler, who wrote a Huffington Post blog about "the babe factor," calls the coverage "demeaning to other women. Most women have tried very hard to be perceived as people who are capable of producing. But the culture is the way it is."
Palin, she says, has played up her appearance with her 1980s beauty-pageant photo and by posing for Vogue: "She is the Playboy fantasy of the nurse with her hair up in her prim little suit, and then the hair comes down and she's the hot babe."
For 18 months, Obama's opponents complained that the media treated him like a celebrity. McCain even aired an ad likening him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. Now Obama is being overshadowed by a new superstar, a woman with an intriguing life story, and liberals are complaining that Palin is getting a pass on the issues.
Palin's defenders haven't hesitated to accuse journalists (as well as Democrats) who question her record of ganging up on a woman. And there has been a degree of piling on, even as she remained secluded from the press. At times, the media hubbub has threatened to drown out the original concern about Palin, voiced when the insta-pundits were calling her selection a reckless gamble: Is she qualified to serve as a potential president? In Alaska, Gibson took the country back to that basic question.
Steamy Messages
The Miami Herald is investigating a series of romantic e-mails between its former education reporter and a school official who is now the region's incoming school superintendent.
In one message, Tania Luzuriaga, now with the Boston Globe, wrote Alberto Carvalho: "Will you be completely offended if I leap into your arms the next time I see you (place permitting)? Like in the movies, with arms and legs wrapped around . . . Love, love, love you." In another, Luzuriaga apologized for not properly crediting him in a story, saying, "if it doesn't compromise us professionally, we ought to act in ways that help one another." There are also notes about plans to travel together. Carvalho says he doesn't recall seeing the messages; Luzuriaga did not return a phone call.
"If these e-mails are real, this violates some of the most basic rules of our profession,'' Herald Executive Editor Anders Gyllenhaal told his paper.
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GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Donna Svennevik -- Associated Press; Sarah Palin's good looks weren't on the agenda last week as Charlie Gibson asked her tough questions about Iraq, abortion and global warming.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 15, 2008 Monday 12:00 PM EST
Critiquing the Press
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3813 words
HIGHLIGHT: Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
Howard Kurtz has been The Washington Post's media reporter since 1990. He is also the host of CNN's "Reliable Sources" and the author of "Reality Show: Inside the Last Great Television News War," "Media Circus," "Hot Air," "Spin Cycle" and "The Fortune Tellers: Inside Wall Street's Game of Money, Media and Manipulation." Kurtz talks about the press and the stories of the day in "Media Backtalk."
He was online Monday, Sept. 15 at noon ET to take your questions and comments.
The transcript follows.
Media Backtalk transcripts archive
____________________
Baltimore: Howard -- In today's Media Notes you laud as "well-reported" a New York Times story that demonstrates why so many of us regard the MSM as severely biased and untrustworthy. The Times states of a Palin appointee: "A former real estate agent, Ms. Havemeister cited her childhood love of cows as a qualification for running the roughly $2 million agency." I'm sure the woman also cited numerous other, far more serious qualification for the job, yet the New York Times chose to cite only one, thereby making both Palin and Havemeister appear to be total fools. Character demolition jobs from would-be-cute columnists are expected, but such cheap shots in what should be straight news stories contribute heavily to the public's distrust of the mainstream media.
Howard Kurtz: I'm sorry, you may or may not like the Times -- and I've done my share of criticizing the paper, such as on that flimsy McCain/female lobbyist story -- but Sunday's piece WAS well reported. Lots of people were interviewed, including Palin supporters. Everyone was quoted on the record. The pattern of Palin hiring high school classmates and firing those whose loyalty she questions -- described in some other pieces -- was firmly established here. If the former real estate agent had any other qualifications to run the state agriculture division, I'm happy to revise and extend my remarks.
_______________________
Pittsburgh: It's still over six weeks till the general election, and I'm already sick, sick, sick of the glut of campaign commercials, not to mention the sleaziness of a lot of them (even for the candidates I favor, let alone the ones I oppose). If TV stations weren't running so many politicial ads, wouldn't they still be filling their commercial time with just as much other (nonpolitical) advertising? Aren't they legally limited as to how much commercial time they can run in any given half-hour of programming, depending, for example, on whether it's in primetime? Are TV stations able to charge more per second for a campaign commercial than for ads for other products, or do political commercials get priority, preempting other ads?
Howard Kurtz: My condolences. There's actually a law involved here. Networks cannot turn down ads by candidates for federal office, and they can't charge more for them, either. At the same time, they're happy to ring the cash registers with ads for gubernatorial and mayoral candidates and other local politicians. And yes, the effect can be so repetitive that most voters try to tune out most of these ads.
_______________________
Silver Spring, Md.: I question the notion that journalists are somehow driven by a storyline over which they have no control. I'm thinking of the comment by the West Coast reporter who said Sarah Palin's good looks "seem to be the story." Palin's genetic advantages are the story only because individual editors and reporters decide to make it the story. I've seen this rationale over and over when journalists are challenged on their coverage of one topic or another. "That's the story." I say this as a working journalist (copy editor). I never have understood it; it seems mindless to me, and I wonder if you can address this issue.
Howard Kurtz: They certainly have some control. There's no constitutional requirement that we spend two days on a silly lipstick controversy. Still, the campaigns have substantial ability to shape the coverage. If McCain or Obama mounts repeated assaults on his opponent and airs attack ads on the same subject, we have a responsibility to cover that -- and to report on whether they're sticking to the facts. At the same time, we cede too much in letting them control the agenda. In '88, the candidates didn't want to talk about the looming S&L crisis, and the media mostly ignored it. This year neither candidate wants to talk about the exploding federal deficit, and we have devoted almost no ink and airtime to that issue.
_______________________
Ocala, Fla.: Why do you think there has been so little broadcast and cable coverage about the Charlie Rangel "ethics" flap?
Howard Kurtz: It's been overshadowed by the presidential campaign and the hurricanes. Rangel, while an important member of Congress who chairs House Ways and Means, isn't a towering national figure. But his failure to pay taxes on an investment property deserves more television coverage than it has gotten.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Charles Krauthammer (who for some reason is still writing for an American newspaper) took issue with your characterization of Palin's "Bush Doctrine" moment. It seems that her deer-in-the-headlights, "I knew I should have studied that chapter!" reaction to the phrase was actually a sophisticated, nuanced protest regarding the evolving meaning of the term. Has this post-hoc excuse for her unfamiliarity with the defining tenet of Bush's presidency gained any currency with the political media? I know it didn't impress me.
washingtonpost.com: Charlie Gibson's Gaffe (Post, Sept. 13)
Howard Kurtz: Everyone's entitled to his or her opinion. Since there are several aspects of the Bush doctrine, I didn't see Palin's failure to immediately answer as some horrible gaffe. What was more troubling was that after Gibson explained that he was asking about the doctrine of preemptive strike, she seemed less than commanding on that or other foreign policy subjects. It's certainly understandable that a governor and former small-town mayor hasn't had to deal with such questions. But her knowledge and judgment in this area are absolutely fair game in a vice-presidential campaign.
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Seattle: Why so many people distrust MSM can be summed here, on Palin lying about visiting Iraq: The American press writes that "Obama camp suggests Palin has distorted record." The foreign press that "McCain campaign admits Palin never visited Iraq."
Howard Kurtz: The Boston Globe, which broke the story, did not report it that way. The paper said that while Palin had claimed to have visited Iraq, its reporting showed that she had never gone beyond the border of Kuwait. Fact-based reporting, not spin.
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Reston, Va.: What are the odds that The Washington Post will dedicate some prime, front-page, above-the-fold free advertising for authors of books who are either not critical of the present administration, or who are critical of Barack Obama?
washingtonpost.com:" The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008," " Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency."
Howard Kurtz: You might keep in mind that Bob Woodward's first book in this four-part Bush-at-war series was quite positive toward the president. And this book, while quite critical of Bush, does credit him for the success of the surge, even while saying that other factors have also been at play in the reduction of violence in Iraq.
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Smithton, Ill.: Howie -- I have always considered you to be very fair to both sides (I'm an evangelical conservative Christian), but you're missing the boat on the Palin interview with Gibson/ABC News. Gibson and ABC news totally took out of context her statement about God's will and her statements about Russia (going to war). Martin Bashir dripped with condenscion that Palin was a Christian, like that is a horrible thing. Comments, I know, always are taken out of context but she was made to look like a rabid fundementalist Christian, which she is not, and the media are now picking up the "Jesus was a community organizer, Pontius Pilate was a governor" meme ("Meet the Press" with Tom Brokaw). This madness has to stop!
Howard Kurtz: I have to disagree. Gibson played the tape of what Palin said in church (yes, he didn't play the whole tape; it's television) and gave her a full chance to respond. When you say someone was dripping with condescension, that's a subjective judgment on your part. I will say that the media in general have taken an openly skeptical approach to reporting on Palin's religion and the practices at her former church in a way that has made me a bit uncomfortable.
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Portland, Ore.: Howie, do political reporters have time to read the rest of the newspaper? Especially tne business section -- or even the front page? I ask because while The Post and others obviously are playing the latest problems on Wall Street prominently, this issue does not seem to be appearing in stories on the election. Example from the Sunday talk shows: Greenspan says on "This Week" that the Wall Street meltdown is the worst of his lifetime (and he's old!), yet in the prior segment Stephanopolous asks not one question about what is happening and what each candidate would do to stop the bleeding -- and one of the surrogates is Carly Fiorina, for crying out loud. Tell Balz and Co. to get off the "lipstick on a pig" crap and report on something that may cost me much of my (and others') life savings!
Howard Kurtz: In fairness, The Post hasn't done much with the silly lipstick flap, and the candidates today are starting to talk about the latest Wall Street meltdown. I do think we have to keep the focus on their approach to financial regulation, both in the past and what they're proposing now, even if by tomorrow they move on to other subjects.
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San Diego: Howard -- I was watching your CNN segment this morning (Sunday 9/14) re: the opinions of TV anchors/pundits, and it struck me ... who cares what they think? I don't. I used to work in Washington, for the Clintons. I understand the process, but really, as a regular American now, I'm bored and annoyed by pundits. I'm interested in how average Americans (across the country) respond to the press. Could you bring on a focus group or a few nonpundits to discuss their reactions to the news, punits etc? That would be fascinating! Thanks!
Howard Kurtz: You're free to tune in or out as you see fit. But I don't think anyone can deny that media coverage, and the punditry as well, has a significant impact on campaigns and how they're perceived by voters. Unlike almost every other show on the planet, I don't have guests on to spout off on how the campaign is going. We cover the coverage. Our focus yesterday, for instance, was on Gibson's questions, not Palin's answers.
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Journalism School?: Sarah Palin claims to have been a journalism major in college (complete with five transfers in six years, a record which in itself, absent compelling reasons, would raise all sorts of red flags in most human resources departments). My question is, how rare is it for a journalism major who hopes ever to be employed in the field never to have worked on a school newspaper, TV or radio station? This just seems so bizarre to me.
Are there people who were at the colleges Palin claims to have attended (faculty, former classmates) who can even vouch for her having been there? How much can reporters investigate this without violating Palin's legal right to privacy, e.g. whether she actually earned a degree, whether she was ever on academic probation, etc.?
Howard Kurtz:"Claims to have attended"? I haven't seen any hint that Sarah Palin didn't attend the colleges she says she did. And I don't think it's odd that someone would major in journalism without moonlighting at some campus publication or station. Palin did work as a sports reporter and anchor after college -- I'm sure you've seen the video of her with the huge '80s hair.
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San Diego: For shame, Howie. Apparently you, as a member of the evil cabal of media elite, are to blame for the McCain campaign's recent (and reluctant, I'm sure) embrace of negativity. If you had just paid more attention to him before, he wouldn't have been forced to accuse Obama of being one-step removed from pedophilia. He also wouldn't have to keep saying that Palin said "no thanks" to the Bridge to Nowhere and never has taken an earmark in her entire political life. So, what do you have to say for yourself, mister?
Howard Kurtz: No one gets into journalism to be popular.
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New York: You've parroted every anti-MSNBC line of attack out there, but you ignored Joe Scarborough admitting on-air that the mainstream media always will be talking about what the McCain campaign wants the media to be talking about.
Howard Kurtz: But that is Joe Scarborough's opinion, and the opinion of a former Republican congressman may or may not be more valid than the opinions of Olbermann, Matthews, Maddow etc. As for "parroting" attacks on MSNBC, I was out there largely by myself for months in saying it was questionable for the very opinionated Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews to assume the role of anchors on primary nights and at the conventions. MSNBC President Phil Griffin kept assuring me it was no problem because they wear "different hats" at live events. Now he's changed their mind and removed them from anchoring live political events. So who was right?
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New York: You recently claimed at washgintonpost.com that reporters and pundits are furious at the McCain campaign: "Whether it's the latest back-and-forth over attack ads, the silly lipstick flap or the continuing debate over Sarah and sexism, you can just feel the tension level rising several notches." But isn't it true that the press chose to cover the lipstick charade? But now, according to you, it's as if the press had to pretend the hoax represented news. I'm all for journalists feeling like the McCain camp has insulted their intelligence in recent weeks, because I think it's true, but spare me the notion that the press hasn't allowed itself to be played and insulted.
Howard Kurtz: Yes, the media chose to cover the lipstick flap, even while many journalists made clear that Obama wasn't calling Sarah Palin a pig and that the whole thing was trumped-up on the part of the McCain campaign. I think we wasted everyone's time during the two days when this dominated cable news and even led the network newscasts--and said as much on my show yesterday.
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Annapolis, Md.: Was it my imagination, or did you and your guests on CNN gulp after you said some thought of Sarah Palin as a "boob"? Was that your lipstick moment?
Howard Kurtz: Apparently you weren't watching the show I was on. I didn't use that word. People may have gulped about something else, but it escaped my notice.
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Ashland, Mo.: When one compares the Gibson questions to Palin and Obama, the tone and substance seem very different. One explanation would be that it is assumed that people are familiar with Obama's positions but not Palin's. However, this is probably false for those independents who will decide the elections. Shouldn't interviewers assume little to no knowledge by the viewer and interview accordingly?
Howard Kurtz: Well, it's certainly different interviewing a national candidate that few in the Lower 48 had heard of two weeks ago and a man who's been campaigning for president for a year and a half. But remember when Gibson was co-moderator of an Obama/Hillary debate, and was widely criticized (including by me) for spending the first 45 minutes asking about Obama's lack of flag pin, Jeremiah Wright and other controversies? My point is that he's demonstrated over the years that he can be tough on both sides.
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Cheyenne, Wyo.: Mr. Kurtz: As The Post's media critic, do you ever monitor the religious press? I ask because the secular media has portrayed the Palin phenomenon as something that arose almost spontaneously in the past two weeks. In fact, Palin has been extensively profiled and lauded in many religous publications, especially since the birth of her child with Downs Syndrome. She had a ready-made audience of evangelical and other pro-life women to whom she already was a hero. That is one reason the crowds are so large. Just one more part of America that the secular media don't seem to know exists sometimes. Thanks.
Howard Kurtz: I do. And I know Governor Palin has been something of a heroine in some Christian communities and the anti-abortion community, especially after the birth of Trig. And I would be the first to say that the mainstream media are wary of, and don't know enough about, fundamentalist Christianity.
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Boston: Why is it bad for the primaries and conventions to be anchored by partisans? I mean, especially with primaries, the only objective thing of note is the result. If you need to fill more then 15 seconds of TV time, why not go partisan?
Howard Kurtz: It is fine for partisan pundits to be ON the broadcasts, offering their views (and even better when they're balanced by partisans of the opposite persuasion). But the anchor role is very different. The anchor is the quarterback, the person who frames the debate. And if that person is a liberal (or conservative) commentator, it skews the coverage in unmistakable ways, as we saw at the conventions.
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Washington: Howard, do you consider "The View" interview of John McCain (two comedians, the wife of a pro quarterback, and a reporter who was famous for asking "what kind of tree would you be") some of the best journalism/interviews this political season? Could, say, some of the folks at CNN learn something from this (McCain thinks Roe v. Wade should be overturned, he thinks his false ads against Obama are true, Palin opposed earmarks as a governor, and Palin would reform some vague Washington). I mean, they actually asked follow-up questions.
Howard Kurtz: The View is a curious mix, a gossipy chat show that also deals with real issues. And good for Joy Behar and company for trying to pin down McCain. But keep in mind that most of the panelists are liberals.
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Re: "Claims to have attended": One thing that's struck me about how the media operates, especially the pundits, is that a person is allowed to get on TV and claim X, and then say "disprove me if you don't believe me." Perhaps that's a reason for the contempt, because the rest of the world operates on a different principle.
Howard Kurtz: I think we should be skeptical. Trust but verify and all that. But I don't think we should become so steeped in cynicism that we assume every syllable out of a politician's mouth is a lie.
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New York: I've noted Alan Greenspan (who should be hanging his head in shame, after doing nothing to forestall the current financial crisis) is once again all over the airwaves and it struck me: Why does the media continue to tart-up those who were wrong for so long about specific topics (the economy, the war in Iraq, etc.)? Seems to me they'd be better served talking to people who were warning against the tactics approved by Greenspan (and in the case of Iraq, those who were skeptical from the beginning), wouldn't they? Why is the media so backward in this regard?
Howard Kurtz: Alan Greenspan clearly made mistakes during his two-decade tenure, but he also accomplished some things. He hasn't been the Fed chairman for two years. So I don't think he can be heavily blamed for the current mortgage/Wall Street meltdown, or that he should be banned from the airwaves. The White House and Congress bear a great deal of responsibility as well. Who failed to rein in the obviously risky practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Who allowed banks to circumvent federal regulation by creating exotic financial instruments relating to mortgages? Your elected leaders.
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Plainsboro, N.J.: Mr. Kurtz: Over the weekend I read a AP story about their recent poll, in which the writer makes the point that Obama's share of the white vote is comparable to what John Kerry polled among the same group. That piece of news surprised me greatly. Most stories I read seem to suggest that most whites are deserting deserting Obama because of latent racial attitudes. But if what the AP article says is true, then there is no racist storyline here. Shouldn't the press explicitly be debunking this racist storyline?
Howard Kurtz: I don't think the press has been pushing a racist storyline. The news lately is a substantial shift among white women, particularly older white women, from Obama to McCain. The media interpretation is that much of this is due to the Palin pick. However it stacks up against historical benchmarks, it's got to be worrisome to the Obama campaign.
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Columbia, Md.: Howard: Big dust-up brewing in the newsphoto world after prominent photog Jill Greenberg ambushed McCain on an Atlantic mag cover shoot. You can find all the images on her site. Thought you would find this interesting on several levels. Regards,from a 20-year Baltimore Sun veteran.
Howard Kurtz: She did more than ambush McCain. She intentionally shot pictures to make him look horrible, and she admits to it. Fortunately, the Atlantic didn't use those shots. I've got the link in today's online column.
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Evangelist Media: With all due respect to Wyoming, the fact that puff pieces appear in religious publications because they admire a politician's anti-abortion stance does nothing whatsoever to educate the rest of us as to that candidate's qualifications for national office. That's what we got real newspapers for. I would say the same about George W. Bush's revealing interviews in the fishing and hunting magazines.
Howard Kurtz: I think Wyoming was simply making the point that Sarah Palin was well-known in communities that agree with her views on abortion long before most of us knew who she was.
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Down South: My sister-in-law has a graduate degree in journalism; her undergrad is from an Ivy League school. She did not work on any paper while in college or graduate school. Doesn't mean a thing. She has done some reporting after grad school, here and there.
Howard Kurtz: On the other hand, I was the editor of my student newspaper, and I don't argue that it makes me qualified to be vice president. Did help me get my first job, though.
Thanks for the chat, folks.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
LOAD-DATE: September 16, 2008
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September 15, 2008 Monday 11:46 AM EST
Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) Speaks on the Economy
BYLINE:
LENGTH: 2566 words
HIGHLIGHT: Saint Clair Shores, Michigan
Saint Clair Shores, Michigan
SPEAKER: SEN. JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., D-DEL.
[*] BIDEN: Eight years ago, a man ran for President who claimed he was different, not a typical Republican. He called himself a reformer. He admitted that his Party, the Republican Party, had been wrong about things from time to time. He promised to work with Democrats and said he'd been doing that for a long time.
That candidate was George W. Bush. Remember that? Remember the promise to reach across the aisle? To change the tone? To restore honor and dignity to the White House?
We saw how that story ends. A record number of home foreclosures. Home values, tumbling. And the disturbing news that the crisis you've been facing on Main Street is now hitting Wall Street, taking down Lehman Brothers and threatening other financial institutions.
We've seen eight straight months of job losses. Nearly 46 million Americans without health insurance. Average incomes down, while the price of everything -- from gas to groceries -- has skyrocketed. A military stretched thin from two wars and multiple deployments.
A nation more polarized than I've ever seen in my career. And a culture in Washington where the very few wealthy and powerful have a seat at the table and everybody else is on the menu.
Eight years later, we have another Republican nominee who's telling us the exact same thing:
This time it will be different, it really will. This time he's going to put country before party, to change the tone, reach across the aisle, change the Republican Party, change the way Washington works.
We've seen this movie before, folks. But as everyone knows, the sequel is always worse than the original.
If we forget this history, we're going to be doomed to repeat it -- with four more just like the last eight, or worse. If you're ready for four more years of George Bush, John McCain is your man.
Just as George Herbert Walker Bush was nicknamed "Bush 41" and his son is known as "Bush 43," John McCain could easily become known as "Bush 44."
The campaign a person runs says everything about the way they'll govern. The McCain-Palin campaign has decided to bet the house on the politics perfected by Karl Rove. Those tactics may be good at squeaking by in an election, but they are bad if you want to lead one nation, indivisible.
I count John McCain as a friend. I've known him since before he was a Senator. If he needed my personal help, I'd go. He served our country bravely, nobly. But America needs more than a great soldier, America needs a wise leader.
Take a hard look at the positions John has taken for the past 26 years, on the economy, on health care, on foreign policy, and you'll see why I say that John McCain is just four more years of George Bush. On the issues that you talk about around the kitchen table, Mary's college tuition, the cost of the MRI for mom, heating our home this winter -- John McCain is profoundly out of touch.
Senator McCain has confessed, quote, "It's easy for me to go to Washington and frankly, be somewhat divorced from the day-to-day challenges people have." And he's right, if all you do is walk the halls of power, all you hear are the wants of the powerful.
I believe that's why Senator McCain could say with a straight face, as recently as this morning, and I quote "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." That, "We've made great progress economically" during the Bush years. But friends, I could walk from here to Lansing, and I wouldn't run into a single person who thought our economy was doing well, unless I ran into John McCain.
John McCain just doesn't seem to understand what middle class people are going through today. I don't doubt that he cares. He just doesn't think that we have any responsibility to help people who are hurting.
My dad used to have an expression: "Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget, and I'll tell you what you value."
By that measure, John McCain doesn't stand with the middle class. He stands with George Bush firmly in the corner of the wealthy and well-connected. He stands with the CEO of Exxon-Mobil, who, while testifying before my Senate judiciary committee swore to me under oath that Exxon-Mobil didn't need the tax breaks they'd been given to explore for oil.
John McCain is so firmly in their corner he thinks the Exxon- Mobils of the world should get an additional $4 billion dollars a year in tax cuts.
He stands in the corner of the wealthiest Americans by extending tax cuts for people making over a quarter million dollars a year, and then adding more than $300 billion on top of that for corporations and the wealthy.
There is simply no daylight -- at least none I can see -- between John McCain and George Bush.
On every major challenge we face, from the economy, to health care, to education and Iraq, you can barely tell them apart.
Don't take my word for it, look at the record. Ninety percent of the time, John McCain votes with George Bush.
Here's what that means:
When George Bush called for Social Security to be privatized, John McCain stood with him -- he even campaigned for that roundly rejected plan.
When George Bush says that the government has no obligation to re-train or provide extended unemployment benefits for people who have lost their jobs due to trade agreements,
John McCain echoes that view, and has said that Bush is "Right on trade -- absolutely."
When George Bush said we shouldn't investigate why the government's response to Hurricane Katrina was so incompetent, John McCain stood with him.
When George Bush initially opposed a new GI Bill that would send a new generation of veterans to college, John McCain stood with him, calling Senator Webb's effort too generous.
When George Bush blocked our efforts to provide health care to another 3.8 million children, John McCain stood with him.
And when, in early 2007, George Bush suggested that the health care benefits you get through your employer should be taxed as income, John McCain stood with him. And now, ladies and gentlemen, John McCain has resurrected that idea, and made it an essential part of his health care plan.
Issue after issue, vote after vote, the story is the same.
In the last 16 years, he's voted 23 times against the renewable energy -- wind, solar, biofuels -- we need to free ourselves from foreign oil.
Since he arrived in the Senate over 20 years ago, he's voted more than 19 times against the minimum wage.
In 1994, I wrote and we passed a Crime bill that put 100,000 new police officers on the street, 3,300 of them here in Michigan, provided shelters and security for tens of thousands of battered women, and helped lead to an eight year drop in violent crime. John opposed the crime bill and the Violence Against Women Act it contained, calling them "ineffective" and "ill conceived."
Time and again John voted against increased funding for Pell grants to help families with incomes under $55,000 send their kids to college.
Time and again, John McCain voted to make it harder for women to achieve equal pay for the same work -- making it harder to prove, and punish, discrimination. He even voted against a study to determine if there is a gap between what men and women are paid. Twice.
Governor Palin says all senators do is vote. Well, just imagine what the country would look like if John's votes had become the law of the land.
In John McCain's America, we wouldn't guarantee that more of energy would come from wind, solar, and other renewables. The minimum wage would still be $3.35 an hour. There would have been 100,000 fewer police on the beat. There would have been no national domestic violence hotline for the 1.5 million women who were in crisis and needed somewhere to turn.
Over 160,000 members of the Guard and Reserve who answered their country's call and served more than one tour in Iraq or Afghanistan would get no credit towards an education for their additional sacrifice. Fewer parents would be able to afford to send their kids to college. And women who were discriminated against on the basis of pay would more difficulty making their case. Thank God that's not the America we live in.
John McCain recently said: "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should." Then he proved it by the advisers he chose to surround him -- advisers who have further cocooned him from the reality facing the rest of us. People like Phil Gramm, the man who wrote John McCain's economic plan actually said, repeatedly, that we're not going through an economic recession. Phil Gramm says it's just a mental recession; that we're a nation of whiners.
Tell that to my friend who flew jets for the Navy and then went to work for a commercial airline for over 20 years -- only to see his pension wiped out while his CEO got a golden parachute. Don't tell me that he is a whiner.
Don't tell me that the woman I met in Missouri who worked for the Chrysler plant for 13 years making minivans and lost her job when production moved to Canada is a whiner.
Don't tell me that an engineer who sees his job go overseas because his company has been given a tax break to leave instead of one to stay is a whiner.
Don't tell me that these people, people who are our nation's heart and soul -- deserve to be treated as economic scapegoats.
These people worked hard, they did everything right, and they're willing to work hard again. But instead of their government supporting them, their government walked away from them. Nobody stood up for them.
Barack and I will.
What is John's response to the state of the economy? Let me quote him: "A lot of this is psychological." Let me tell you something: Losing your job is more than a state of mind.
It means staring at the ceiling at night thinking that you may lose your house because you can't get next month's mortgage payment. It means looking at your pregnant wife and not knowing how you're going to come up with the money to pay for the delivery of your child, since you don't have health care anymore. It means looking at your child when they come home from college at Christmas and saying "Honey, I'm sorry, we're not going to be able to send you back next semester." It's not a state of mind. It's a loss of dignity.
When you and your economic advisers are so out of touch, it's no surprise that your economic policies ignore the challenges that normal families face.
Let me just give you one more example. In the midst of this housing crisis, John McCain said, "I will fight for those that lost their real estate investments." He went on to say, "It's not the role of government to bail out big banks or small borrowers." What about small borrowers? What about homeowners? What about the people who don't invest in homes, but live in them? There's an important distinction between the predators and the preyed upon.
I heard that a Republican County Chairman right here in Michigan said that they're keeping a list of foreclosed homes, suggesting that if you've lost your home, you should also lose your vote. I have a different idea. I think that if you're worried about losing your home, you should vote for the guys who are going to help you keep it!
Whatever happened to the guy, who once denounced tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans in a time of war as immoral.
When someone running for election changes his views to satisfy the base of the party, that's not change, that's just more of the same Washington game. The problem is that in the Washington game today, the American people are losing.
Ladies and Gentlemen, as of today, there are 50 days until Election Day. That's just seven more weeks to talk about the direction we're going to take this country, to talk about the issues of concern in your lives, to talk about you. But as his campaign manager has said, and I quote, "This election is not about issues."
When Senator McCain was subjected to unconscionable, scurrilous attacks in his 2000 primary campaign, I called him on the phone to ask what I could do. And now, some of the very same people and the tactics he once deplored his campaign now employs. The same campaign that once called for a town hall a week is now launching a low blow a day.
Barack and I can take it. That's not what bothers me.
It bothers me that -- as one media watchdog put it -- John's recent commercial is the, "latest in a number that resort to a dubious disregard for the facts." As another news organization put it: The wheels have come off the straight talk express.
But what really bothers me, is that every punch thrown at us --- is an attempt to distract you. And they can be plenty distracting.
Like the McCain advertisements that misrepresent a vote by Barack Obama to protect young children from sexual predators. Like Senator McCain's effort to obscure the fact that Barack Obama's tax cuts will benefit 95 percent of all working people. Like John McCain's attempt to cloak himself in reform by misrepresenting his running mate's record.
It's disappointing to me to think that John McCain really does approve this message.
Every false debate we're drawn into is a real conversation we don't have with the American people. Character attacks get media attention, but they make this election about us when it really needs to be about you. Barack Obama believes that progress in this country is measured by how many people have a decent job where they're shown respect. How many people can pay their mortgage. How many people can turn their ideas into a new business. How many people can turn to their kids and say "It's going to be okay" with the knowledge that the opportunities they give will be better than the ones they received.
That's the American dream. That's what the people in my neighborhood grew up believing. And I want our kids to have the same dream.
Barack Obama starts from that vision of progress and will do what it takes to get us there.
That's why his tax cuts - benefit the middle class. That's why he'll make it easier for families to afford college for their kids. That's why he says everyone should be able to have the same health care that members of Congress have. That's why his energy plan will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, bring down gas prices, and, in the process, we'll create five million new green jobs. Those are the changes we need.
Yes, this campaign is about change, but it's about even more than that. It's about what we value as a people. It's not just about a job, it's about dignity. It's not just about a paycheck. It's about pride. It's not just about opportunity. It's about respect. That's why Barack and I are in this race.
We know we need change if we're to restore dignity, pride, and respect. We know America's best days are ahead of us, and we know why we're here.
We're here for the for the cops and firefighters, the teachers and assembly line workers, the engineers and office workers, the small business owners and the retiree.
All of the folks who play by the rules, work hard, and do what is asked of them. They deserve a government as good and an economy as strong as they are.
We're all are Americans. There has never been a challenge too great. The stakes have never been higher.
My father always told me, "Champ, when you get knocked down, get up. Get up." It's time to get up. It's time to trust the grit and determination of the American people.
America is ready. You are ready. I am ready. And Barack Obama is ready. Our best days are yet to come.
May God bless America and may God protect our troops.
END
LOAD-DATE: September 17, 2008
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September 15, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Science: Department of Human Behavior;
Fighting Misinformation in Political Campaigns
BYLINE: Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4155 words
HIGHLIGHT: Washington Post staff writer Shankar Vedantam and Jason Reifler, a political scientist at Georgia State University, were online at 11 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 15 to discuss research that shows that fighting misinformation in political campaigns is almost impossible.
Washington Post staff writer Shankar Vedantam and Jason Reifler, a political scientist at Georgia State University, were online at 11 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 15 to discuss research that shows that fighting misinformation in political campaigns is almost impossible.
Read about the study in this week's Department of Human Behavior column: The Power of Political Misinformation.
The transcript follows.
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Shankar Vedantam: Welcome to this online chat to discuss the Department of Human Behavior column today, The Power of Political Misinformation. Do you see examples on the campaign trail where misinformation is rampant? Have you noticed whether attempts to debunk the misinformation have been successful? Several experiments seem to suggest that misinformation is not only difficult to debunk, but that some refutations can actually prompt MORE people to believe the misinformation. I am delighted to be joined by Jason Reifler at Georgia State University, who helped conduct experiments showing this "backfire effect."
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Arlington, Va.: Without a doubt Vedantam and Reifler's research demonstrates that lies and deliberate falsehoods injected into a political campaign have a desired viral effect. The subject matter is contaminated, and the candidates remain even more vulnerable to spurious charges. A modest suggestion to remedy the problem might be to remind the spinmeisters that actions have consequences. Independently funded 'truth squads,' the Federal Election Commission, and the Courts need to be brought fully into the mix to sort truth from lies, and to impose penalties and sanctions for deliberate violations of 'truth in advertising.' If the electorate doesn't demand honesty and integrity from the process then the only thing we can be assured of is that future campaigns will begin in the gutter and descend from there.
Jason Reifler: This question raises a couple of important points. First, that pressure can be potentially be brought to bear on campaigns that traffic in falsehoods. I am not a lawyer, but my understanding is that pursuing legal strategies (like libel or slander) would be extremely difficult. Second, we do see campaigns try and get TV stations not to air certain ads. Although in a federal election this can also have the potentially difficult legal issues by denying running ads of one campaign.
I think the main point relevant to our research is that "truth" is somewhat in the eye of the beholder. Political predispositions greatly affect what we view as true. Objective standards for what is "true" in terms of political events may be more difficult than we realize.
Shankar Vedantam: A good example of what Jason Reifler is talking about comes from one of the experiments I wrote about in the column today. Conservatives told about the 2004 Duelfer report -- which said Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the 2003 U.S. invasion -- were MORE likely to believe Iraq did have the weapons than conservatives who did not hear the refutation. Even if it were possible to set up truly independent watchdog groups or agencies (and I don't really see how this could be done) the research seems to suggest that people largely believe what they want to believe. Is there an antidote for that?
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Silver Spring, Md.: Here's a different sort of question concerning misinformation, science and the political campaigns: After 8 years of Mr. Bush suppressing scientific findings (by the EPA or the NIH, principally), shouldn't Sarah Palin be questioned about her episode of sitting on the findings of her own scientists regarding the polar bear? According to the New York Times, an outside scientist was stonewalled as she misrepresented her staff's findings. When he finally got a hold of their internal discussions, it turns out Palin's public statement was a lie:
Once Elected, Palin Hired Friends and Lashed Foes (New York Times, September 13, 2008)
Shankar Vedantam: Thanks, Silver Spring. It's an interesting question and a good one. My sense is that the media are trying to ask a lot of questions, but to some extent are being locked out by the McCain-Palin campaign, which is keeping a tight lid on interviews. That said, I have seen many media accounts that attempt to correct misinformation -- the question we are dealing with today is whether these accounts actually change people's minds and attitudes?
Jason Reifler: The topic of political manipulation of scientific data is beyond my area of expertise. Chris Mooney has written extensively on this question, and I highly recommend his work.
There are lots of questions about Palin (as there are with all candidates). Campaigns certainly do shield candidates from the press -- this is not something invented by the McCain campaign.
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Bethesda, Md.: When I was growing up in the south in the 50s and 60s, I thought white racism was unmovable. Yet opinions changed dramatically in less than a decade. Given that people seek confirmation of their beliefs and consider even debunked falsehoods to be confirmation, how is such a dramatic opinion change possible?
Jason Reifler: This question raises a number of interesting points. First, some scholars would say that racism has not abated as much as it first appears. Rather, "racist" people have learned how to answer survey questions correctly. (That is not my view, but is a position held my some.)
Second, there may be a difference between our experiments that challenge a view one time and an overwhemling message environment against prior held beliefs that continue for years. This is one of the areas that our research is continuing in.
Shankar Vedantam: Thanks for the question, Bethesda. I think you are raising a larger point that is relevant: Over time, it does seem that people's views are changing, and that inaccurate views tend to go out of fashion, or go extinct. But two questions arise from this: Is the change because you are studying different groups of people at different points in time? Does comparing racial attitudes in 1950s America with the country today tell us that people have changed their minds or that many of the people we are talking to today were not around in the 1950s? The other point is that it appears that some shifts in people's attitudes track large-scale political changes. As the Bush Administration has itself stepped away from explicit claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the 2003 invasion, for example, I am guessing fewer conservatives subscribe to that view today. But is that because misinformation was corrected, or because the political winds changed?
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Huntingtown, Md.: One of the studies referenced in the article concludes that among conservatives, some refutations strengthen rather than mitigate misinformation. They claim it's because conservatives are more rigid in their views. Since the authors are both Democrats and presumably liberal, why should I take their claim as science? I would offer the refutation that it's not rigidity but a belief that like the laws of physics, there are moral laws that are universal, unchanging and not subject to the whims and cultural preferences of mankind. Liberals claim they do not believe in absolute truth, even though I would argue that they too have their absolutes, such as their contention that there ARE no absolutes. Studies like this would be more useful without making value judgments as to why people behave as they do.
Shankar Vedantam: I will pass that along to Jason so he can answer for himself. For my own part, I wrote about these studies because they were CONTROLLED experiments. Many of the experiments I wrote about in the column today suggest biases among liberals -- Democrats were more likely to think worse of then Supreme Court nominee John Roberts after hearing misinformation about him, even after the misinformation was corrected. Unless you are suggesting the researchers falsified their results to paint both Republicans and Democrats in a bad light -- which I personally have to say does not seem credible to me -- it seems that it is their data that are speaking to us, not their personal political beliefs. Parenthetically, I find it disturbing how often people dismiss data if it clashes with their pre-existing views -- isn't that an example of shooting the messenger?
Jason Reifler: I want to thank the participant for the question. I think that it is important to ask in a study about political predispositions driving how we interpret the world how our predispositions might affect the experiments we create and how we interpret the data.
First, these were controlled experiments, as Shankar points out. We actually were not expecting the results we got. Our work started with the idea that corrections could be more effective, and that effective corrections have to be what the psych literature calls "causal" (corrections that explain how people arrived at their mistaken view are more effective). WE did not find that. So, the results were not something we were trying to get to be a "gotcha" at conservatives/Republicans.
Second, we also test liberal misperceptions. And we alsofind that corrections are ineffective. That is, a correction of a "liberal" misperception does not bring liberals any closer to the truth. The difference is that we have yet to see a backfire effect among liberals. OUr research continues in that area to see what we can find. (If you have suggestions for good liberal misperceptions, please feel free to share. This is one area where we actively seek input from people with political preferences different than our own.)
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Takoma Park, Md.: Any correlation between the backfire effect and level of education/IQ/ other metrics that might be predictors of good analytical skills or the ability to retain information accurately?
Jason Reifler: We do find that those who do better on a simple battery of truly objective fact questions (e.g. who is the chief justice of the supreme court) tend to be less misinformed. There is suggestive evidence from a our statistical analyses that knowledge plays an important moderating role, but our data are not conclusive on that point.
These are great questions! Keep 'em coming!
Shankar Vedantam: I must say I would be extremely cautious with the suggestion that education is always an effective safeguard against misinformation. If you go back and read many of the columns I have written -- the archive is at washingtonpost.com/behavior -- there are numerous examples that show people who are the best informed sometimes have the worst and most rigid biases.
See for example, this piece about the "hostile media effect":
Two Views of the Same News Find Opposite Biases (Washington Post, July 24, 2006)
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Falls Church, Va.: So is there any way we can effectively hold campaigns accountable for misrepresenting the facts, or outright lying?
Jason Reifler: I wish a had the silver bullet that would slay the villain of falsehoods in politics. We are still figuring out the very basics of exactly when there will be a backfire effect. The next step is strategies to mitigate the power of falsehoods. Sadly, we are a long way away. Brendan and I are testing something right now in lab setting. But even if that works, it will be hard to migrate that from the lab to the real world. We believe that this is an important problem. I really wish I had a good answer that said "here's all we need to do, and the problems will be solved."
Shankar Vedantam: It seems to me the solution for these biases -- in so far as there really is a solution -- is less about what is out there and more about how we ourselves think. Many of us are quick to spot the biases in our political opponents, but are completely certain that our own views and information are accurate. To our political opponents, our certainty about things is also a glaring example of bias.
I don't want to imply that the lies propagated by different sides are all equivalent, and therefore cancel each other out. Clearly, some politicians and some campaigns are more honorable than others, and some are better at mass deception. From the point of view of the audience -- us -- caveat emptor!
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Washington, D.C.: I'm having difficulty inferring the reason for the backfire effect, especially of the magnitude of the instances you describe. If the refutation is itself unrefuted, doesn't redoubling one's original belief sort of amount to insanity?
Jason Reifler: Our speculation is that being given disconfirming evidence of what one believes threatens one's sense of self, and that the brain responds to this threat by counter-arguing the evidence. By successfully counter-arguing against it. one comes to hold the initial "mistaken" belief even more strongly.
Shankar Vedantam: Dear Washington, surely you are not implying that people are rational creatures, who think about the world in deliberate ways and reach balanced conclusions about what is right and wrong??!!?
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Liberal misperception ideas: How about unfounded prejudices about regular churchgoers (liberals more likely to already believe churchgoers are dumb) or about people who believe that Jesus Christ was literally the son of God (slightly different from regular churchgoer, but just as likely to trip "dumb" hot buttons in many liberals)?
Jason Reifler: We'll look into finding a way to incorporate these. They are slightly different than what we have done to data because there is not a specific fact to try and debunk (at least for the first). As the second (is Christ literally the son of God?), I'm simply going to steal an Obama line -- that is above my pay grade.
Shankar Vedantam: Good suggestions, both! Stereotypes always produce caricatures. To paraphrase both McCain and Obama, Americans have many more things that unite them than divide them. A political campaign, of course, reminds us primarily about differences, and not about areas of consensus or similarity.
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Arlington, Va.: Gentlemen, I think you dodged my comment. The operant phrase is that actions have consequences. I agree that 'proving' the lie will be a challenge, but as your own research indicates, once the fabrication (and the fabricators) have scored their point, the damage is done. 'All's fair in love and war (and politics)' is neither in the best interests of this country nor an example of how the United States is somehow more 'virtuous' than other societies. Expensive and punitive sanctions to include enjoining a ad campaign or a group may seem draconian, but dammit if the electorate doesn't insist on integrity in the process, who will?
Jason Reifler: I don't think that I was necessarily dodging the question (which is of course self-serving to believe).
My response is 1. as I understand the legal system, that is extremely difficult to do, and 2. our research shows that the idea of "facts" is slippery. Suppose a case comes to the FEC, FCC, or a judge. It will be up to the nebulous "them" to decide the facts and whether something really was an egregious abuse of truth that draconian punishment is necessary. I think an implication of our research is that whether one sees the transgression as sufficiently egregious to warrant stiff punishment will depend on the political predispositions of the person adjudicating the case. Harsher punishment may be helpful, but also may be difficult to actually implement.
Shankar Vedantam: Also, I strongly believe that a lot of misinformation propagated by political campaigns is completely sincere. People are not trying to mislead and deceive -- they sincerely believe many of the things they are saying. I am not sure a punitive system would do very much to help fight misinformation.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: There are several self-designated "fact checker" organizations. Which in your opinion are some of the better fact checkers?
Jason Reifler: I think factcheck.org does a good job. I will admit that doing this research has led me to change how I read fact checking items. I am much more aware of not letting counter-arguing affect what I take away.
By the way, Shankar wrote a great column about a year ago that focused on different ways correcting "myths" (though if I recall correctly those tended to focus on health issues).
Shankar Vedantam: The earlier piece Jason referred to is here:
Persistence of Myths Could Alter Public Policy Approach (Washington Post, Sept. 4, 2007)
The Washington Post has an excellent fact-checker in the person of my colleague Michael Dobbs. Check out his pieces on The Trail blog. Michael is the best fact-checker around, and my saying so has absolutely nothing to do with the fact I work for the same organization!
In the end, the best fact-checker may be that person you see in the mirror ...
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Bethesda, Md.: Since political campaigns are relatively short, winner-take-all events, unlike the steady drumbeat on civil rights, how is there any hope for truth in political campaigns? The truth only reinforces the lie.
Jason Reifler: First, that is a great line. Can we use it?
Second, this is our long term interest--how can we create a better informed citizenry? As I said before, I wish we had the answer figured out. As of now, we don't. But, I think that identifying this problem lets us know that we need to work hard to find a solution.
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Princeton, N.J.: There is a difference now. There is YouTube. I think that people who use faith-based reasoning (both religious and otherwise) will never be convinced because, after all, faith is the ability to hold beliefs not supported by or even in contradiction with facts. But an open-minded person (if one exists) will probably be more influenced by a tape than a printed version.
Shankar Vedantam: I agree that technology can provide us with tools to fight misinformation. But I think it is an open (and empirical) question as to whether the advent of the internet has made misinformation more or less common. It is true that anyone can post a video showing a political candidate contradicting himself or herself, and this ought to increase accountability, but it is also true that rumors and misinformation now spread rapidly through the internet. The splintering of the media (another technological development) has caused people of different political persuasions to tune in to different channels or read different publications -- meaning people are less likely than before to encounter points of view that clash with their own, or hear refutations of damaging rumors. The experiments I wrote about today all involved compelling refutations, but still proved ineffective -- it seems safe to say refutations in the real world are even less likely to be useful than the ones described in the experiments!
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Baltimore, Md.: Obligatory LBJ anecdote:
Back in 1948, during his first race for the U.S. Senate, Lyndon Johnson was running about ten points behind, with only nine days to go. He was sunk in despair. He was desperate. And it was just before noon on a Monday, they say, when he called his equally depressed campaign manager and instructed him to call a press conference for just before lunch on a slow news day and accuse his high-riding opponent, a pig farmer, of having routine carnal knowledge of his barnyard sows, despite the pleas of his wife and children.
His campaign manager was shocked. "We can't say that, Lyndon," he supposedly said. "You know it's not true."
"Of course it's not true!" Johnson barked at him. "But let's make the bastard deny it!"
Shankar Vedantam: Thanks for the anecdote, Baltimore. Since we are talking about misinformation and refutations, it might be useful for you to let us know the source of that anecdote!
On the larger issue of politicians misrepresenting the truth, I have written columns previously that discuss how the most "effective" liars are the ones that actually believe their own lies.
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Takoma Park, Md.: OK, another question. Is there a metric that assays people's own standards of honesty? Like how they behave themselves on a day to day basis? And do you think that people who score lower for honesty would be more likely to experience the backfire effect? There is a notion out there that honest people can detect lies while liars are themselves fooled.
Jason Reifler: I have no idea, but this is an excellent question/suggestion. Thanks!
Shankar Vedantam: Do take a look at a previous column I wrote on the subject of self-deception in politics. It describes research in evolutionary psychology that argues that self-deception evolved because it made deceiving others more effective.
When Seeing is Disbelieving (Washington Post, April 30, 2007)
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Falls Church, Va.: The Duelfer report may be a difficult example for you, because that report indicated that Iraq was intending to resume WMD production once sanctions were lifted, so it was a bit of a mixed message.
Jason Reifler: It may be. My reading of the report is that Iraq did not have stockpiles of WMD at the time of the invasion, which is what our question focuses on. Iraq may have had desires to reconstitute its weapons program. That being said, evidence of no stockpiles of WMD should not lead one to more strongly believe that there were stockpiles immediately prior to the invasion.
Shankar Vedantam: The question volunteers were asked after being provided with Bush Administration claims and the Duelfer report was whether they agreed with the following statement:
"Immediately before the U.S. invasion, Iraq had an active weapons of mass destruction program, the ability to produce these weapons, and large stockpiles of WMD, but Saddam Hussein was able to hide or destroy these weapons right before U.S. forces arrived."
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Baltimore, Md.: I got the anecdote from Hunter S. Thompson, so make of it what you will...
Shankar Vedantam: Thanks, Baltimore.
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Chicago: Do you have any insights as to how one would find away around this "backfire" effect? How can we point out to someone with firm beliefs that what they think is factually inaccurate without causing cognitive dissonance?
Jason Reifler: If our speculation is correct that receiving difficult information leads one to counter-argue to protect a sense of self, than remedies probably lie in affirming one's sense of self before attempting to correct misperceptions. This approach is what Brendan and I are starting to test in a lab setting.
Shankar Vedantam: To put it another way, is it possible that fighting misinformation might be less about the facts and more about reassuring people that they are not dumb or stupid if they change their minds? If the process by which people believe bad information is partly psychological, is it possible the solution is partly psychological, too? Of course, this is very different from the conventional view of how to fight misinformation -- which argues that the antidote to bad information is merely to provide people with good information.
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Buffalo, N.Y.: I sincerely believe that citizens should have to take a civics exam to qualify to vote; it should be administered in an oral and written form, so it's not a matter of literal literacy but civic literacy. Why on earth should someone be allowed to vote if they don't know how many branches of government we have? Your thoughts?
Shankar Vedantam: Hmmm. There is a long (and rather distubing) history of what happens when societies decide that some citizens are better capable of electing leaders than other citizens. I take away nothing from your point that voting should involve educating yourself about the candidates and issues, but I think most experiments that have tried to limit voting to one group or another have ended badly. (It may be worth noting that people who want to ban other people from voting usually think the people who ought to be kept out of voting booths are those who are most likely going to vote for their political opponents!)
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More about reassuring people that they are not dumb or stupid if they change their minds: This is definitely what I do to my husband before I spring a big grievance. It seems to work.
Shankar Vedantam: On that funny and excellent note, we must bring this chat to a close. Thanks to all for excellent questions and a robust discussion. Thanks especially to Jason Reifler for giving us an hour of his time. Have a good day everyone -- and remember to be skeptical about the things you feel most certain about!
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Washingtonpost.com
September 15, 2008 Monday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Shailagh Murray, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 2769 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Monday, Sept. 22 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Milford, Conn.: Hi Shailagh. Timing question -- would Democrats be as nervous if their convention had followed the GOP's?
Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone, and thanks for participating on this CRAZY day. Tell me what's on your mind. Have you ever lived through a political cycle that's more difficult to read?
Milford -- good question, and something to ponder. I suspect the convention schedules were significant, at least through last week.
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Kensington, Md.: Though I'm hesitant to second-guess the advisers who so skillfully navigated the primary process for Obama, I'm simply amazed at how many unproductive (and sometimes counterproductive) tangents they are allowing the campaign to be led off on. It seems to me they should be hammering away on the two sides' tax plans. McCain's is Bush redux, while Obama's is populist and friendly to the middle class. Is this not a simple foolproof formula, against a backdrop of all the baggage the GOP now carries? Why complicate things with too-clever ads about disco balls and touchy e-mail references? It's the tax plan, stupid! What am I missing?
Shailagh Murray: Think about all the incoming that the Obama campaign is now processing. From the Palin factor to this latest round of McCain ads -- it's very volatile. Check out the new Obama ad this morning -- it's much more direct than that email ad, which I thought was a little odd considering his struggles with older voters.
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Rolla, Mo.: When was the last time we had a vice presidential candidate outdraw the presidential candidate at public events?
Shailagh Murray: Apparently lots of empty seats at McCain's event this morning...no wonder he and the governor are reuniting soon.
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Still confused: Gov. Palin again brought up Russia's proximity to Alaska in her interview with Charlie Gibson, pointing out that one could see Russia from some (remote) parts of Alaska. But he didn't ask about any dealings she has had with Russian government officials. Have there been any? I've heard nothing about this and really don't know the answer. Also, I am unclear as to just where she went on one foreign trip she has taken in her life, apart from Canada. Did she go to Iraq, or just to an Iraq/Kuwait border post?
Shailagh Murray: There were a lot of questions in that marathon session that tested what she knew, but not a lot of questions that reveals how she thinks or sees the world. As for Iraq, I'm not sure we know for sure -- apparently she may have crossed the border, but no more than that -- if anyone knows the latest on this, please fill us in.
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Missouri: Do you think the revised strategy of attacking the continued and nonstop lies from McCain and Palin will gain any traction? It appears that they are ignoring the fact that they are being debunked by every source, and they still trot out the same lies ... bridge, travel, earmarks ... this should make for a nice ad campaign, just using their own words only. What do you think?
Shailagh Murray: The McCain folks are trying to make Obama look and act like a regular politician. They are trying to provoke him, in order to diminish his aura. So Obama's challenge is to defend himself, without compromising his appeal, both with his supporters and undecided voters. Needless to say, it's an extremely difficult needle to thread.
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Rockville, Md.: I may be a bit older than the average person, but that means my first programming class was in 1969 and I do have some knowledge of computers. That means that I am not impressed or dismayed when they say another person does not do e-mail. It is a preference, not a bar exam.
Shailagh Murray: Right. This is what I meant. Frankly I wish sometimes I didn't know how to operate a computer either.
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Bethesda, Md.: It seems that this country loves to build celebrities up and then break them down. Do you think that Pallin is at the apex of her celebrity yet? Is the homeymoon almost over?
Shailagh Murray: If I were Sarah Palin's publicist, I'd be a little worried right now. Do I profess to understand what is driving this phenomenon? I do not. It seems to defy categorization. But her challenge will be maintaining a fairly unrealistic, folkloric image in the face of a lot of conflicting incoming information. Sound familiar? That's what Republicans are trying to do to Obama!
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Vilcabamba, Ecuador: On a one-hour cab ride from Loja to Vilcabanba in Ecuador, the cab driver in his broken English kept asking me questions about Obama vs. McCain. Amazing.
Shailagh Murray: I was just talking to a pollster about this -- apparently the level of interest, and the amount of information that voters are digesting, is off the charts. We'll see if it translates into people actually voting.
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Lehman, Bear, Meryll, Fannie and Freddie, AIG...: Has either campaign got any real proposals for reforming the financial sector? I'm assuming the Democtrats favor more regulation of the financial industry and the Republicans don't...
Shailagh Murray: They're both pledging to "clean up" Wall Street. Whatever that means.
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Catholic Bishops: I'm a pro-life Catholic. Obama and Biden's varying degrees of support for abortion rights is troubling for me. But why in the world are Catholic bishops only issuing press releases and making public statements about the abortion issue?! The Church is against the death penalty when other means of containing prisoners are available, supports treating immigrants with dignity and respect, and two Popes have spoken out against the Iraq War ... but there is nothing about any of this from American bishops, who seem to have no problem injecting themselves into the political debate when abortion is the issue. How about the bishops say something about McCain's divorce or infidelity to his first wife? There's a commandment about that one, too. Or better yet, maybe they could not use their position in the Church as a launching pad to disseminate their own political ideology!
Shailagh Murray: Well, I'm a Catholic too, and this is certainly a difficult subject these days. We Catholics are just not used to that us vs. them dividing line, especially as it becomes sharper in other demominations. It's an uncomfortable place for a lot of Catholics and it's a risky gambit too, when you're trying to unify millions of people from all walks of life.
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New York: Can anyone tell Sarah Palin that nuclear is pronounced just as it's spelled and not "nucular"? Is there a way to correct a politician without offending him or her?
Shailagh Murray: Lots of people do this! It's so weird!
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Alexandria, Va.: So far, it seems that no matter what the Democrats throw at Gov. Palin, she remains standing, and continues to attract much interest among independent voters. Do we expect the Palin attacks to continue, or -- given that they don't seem to be working well to date, should we expect a new line of attack from the Obama campaign? Almost seems like David Axelrod is out of ideas at the moment?
Shailagh Murray: I wouldn't say that Obama or Biden are themselves unduly focused on Palin. The media certainly is. I think the problem is that nobody notices what the Democratic candidates say, unless they're talkinga bout Palin.
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Memphis, Tenn.:"The fundamentals of the economy are strong." -- John McCain on Sept. 15, 2008. Just thought I'd give you that, because the McCain folks later will say he hasn't said that in months.
Shailagh Murray: I thought the financial markets were pretty "fundamental" to our economy, but maybe I'm biased after all those years at the Wall Street Journal.
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Experienced: What is Sarah Palin's position on policy to address the lack of regulation and oversight that has deflated our financial system?
Shailagh Murray: Well, she's on TV right now pledging to clean up that mess on Wall Street.
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Mansfield, Ohio: There has been a lot of attention given to accusations of "press bias" based on the nth-degree scrutinizing Sarah Palin is receiving. Some of this simply may be because Palin is "fresh meat" of sorts for the media, and many in the mainstream press simply defer by saying much already has been written about Obama back during the primaries.
My question is, does The Post have any intention (for the sake of undecided voters who are now for the first time really paying attention) of requestioning Obama/Biden to the degree they have Palin, and reprinting the potentially negative stories associated with Obama (e.g., Wright, Rezco, Biden's plagiarizing, etc.), or does the press tend to consider this "old news," because it really is old news ... to them?
Shailagh Murray: I won't bore you with a lengthy defense of my struggling profession. I mean struggling in a Wall Street sense.
The deal with Sarah Palin is this: she is a totally unknown quantity who has vaulted to the absolute pinnacle of the political world. What are we supposed to do, reprint her Wikipedia page? Certainly folks are writing a lot of about her but HELLO!!!???? What's the alternative -- Pravda? (I wonder if they have home delivery in Alaska).
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"Nucular": That poster from New York needs to spend some time in flyover land. "Nuclear" is only pronounced as it's spelled on the coasts. Palin's pronunciation of the word is typical of the north plains (where her parents are from, I believe, and where she was born). She has a regional accent, just as the New York poster has, I'll bet. In fact, I'm sure that Palin wonders why New Yorkers add all those "-er" sounds to words like "potato."
Shailagh Murray: Like "warsh?" as they say in Missour-a.
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Washington: Nor do the media listen to what McCain says ... unless it is about or in joint appearance with Palin. As frustrating as that may be for the top of the Democratic ticket. in the end, it is worse for McCain, who looks like the weak sister (sorry for the sexist analogy) on the ticket. McCain, it seems to me, is going to get tired of being the second banana here -- and sooner rather than later, I would think.
Shailagh Murray: Yeah, I wonder about this too. Looking out at those thousands of empty seats this morning...
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Bethesda, Md.: So my wife had my mother-in-law and several of her friends over for dinner last night, and to a person each one of them believes that McCain is pro-choice. And this is a group that I am pretty sure is a lot more engaged and politically aware than most Americans. Then, when pressed on the issue of McCain appointing justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade, most of the them seemed to believe that the country never would go back on that issue, and that it is a settled question.
So, why in the world is Obama not making this a bigger issue? We know who the anti-abortion folks in this country are voting for, but Obama is going to lose some of the large majority of Americans who believe in abortion rights, and I suspect some of the strongest believers are women who are disengaged on this issue. This Palin pick is looking smarter and smarter by the minute.
Shailagh Murray: Memo to David Axelrod...
_______________________
"Well, she's on TV right now pledging to clean up that mess on Wall Street.": How?
Shailagh Murray: Perhaps that question will arise in the debate. Or maybe Sean Hannity will press her on it this week.
_______________________
Washington:"Well, she's on TV right now pledging to clean up that mess on Wall Street" You in the media all understand she's the bottom of the ticket, don't you? What, pray tell, is she going to do as vice president?
Shailagh Murray: Dick Cheney found plenty to do.
_______________________
Avon Park, Fla.: Why has Sarah Palin gotten more media attention than vice presidential candidates normally get, considering the conventional wisdom that they don't impact the race that much?
Shailagh Murray: Because she's so pretty and has all those adorable children!
No, seriously, when was the last time you saw a measured response to anything?
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: As a reporter, what is your response to the latest McCain campaign cant that they'd be a lot more positive if only Obama had participated in town hall meetings?
Shailagh Murray: I think Obama made a mistake by turning down this offer. It would have added volatility and uncertainty, but it would have placed the focus squarely on these two men, and forced them to address all these issues that you folks clearly care about, from abortion rights to regulating financial markets.
_______________________
Iowa: The newest Iowa voter poll, taken after both the conventions, has Obama up 12 points over McCain, so Iowans still are hanging tough for Obama, the caucus winner so many months ago. Bush has now sunk to 25 percent approval in Iowa (a new low), so a continuation of that regime is a hard sell indeed.
Shailagh Murray: I am not surprised by that Iowa poll. Obama spent tons of time there, and McCain spent almost none. Also, Iowans are strongly opposed to the war.
_______________________
Ellicott City, Md.: Regarding the banking news today -- people often say the "fundamentals" of the economy are solid. What do they mean by that? Employment numbers? Productivity? Or is it just something people say while everyone else nods in agreement? I'd love to hear someone ask "what do you mean by that?" the next time a politician says that the fundamentals are strong.
Shailagh Murray: This is an age-old debate in politics. Who cares if unemployment and inflation are manageable, if gas prices are sky-high, credit is hard to come by, and brand names like Lehman are going bust? That makes people feel insecure and skittish no matter what the reality is. I did think Alan Greenspan's comments about more tax cuts were interesting, and I would expect to hear a lot of that from Obama in the coming days and weeks.
_______________________
Re: Pronunciation of Nuclear: That has got to be the most creative talking point I have seen yet. As someone from the upper Midwest (Minnesota, to be exact), I can say with some authority that it has nothing to do with some kind of Northern Plains regionalism. The only people who pronounce it "nucular" are those who don't know the correct pronunciation of "nuclear."
Shailagh Murray: Flyover country speaks.
_______________________
Mansfield, Ohio: Obama is proclaiming this morning that the current Wall Street mess is the fault of George Bush. Yet I've seen studies that refute this, and point directly to the Bill Clinton administration for the lazy policies that led to the mess we are in. Will any mainstream press like The Post compare the arguments and try to do an even-handed analysis? Or will they mostly just repeat the line Obama has given them?
Shailagh Murray: The free market rises, and the free market falls. It's an extremely complicated cycle, fueled by many forces. Given its track record in recent years, just be glad Congress has as little control as it does over what goes on.
_______________________
Garfield, N.J.: Besides the hard-hitting and scrupulously honest former fireman from Long Island, Sean Hannity, what other "journalists" is Palin being interviewed by?
Shailagh Murray: How about those gals from The View? That would be pretty interesting.
I have to sign off for today but thanks for the mountain of comments and questions and I'm sorry I couldn't get to everyone! But I salute all of you for paying attention. Cheers and see you soon, Shailagh
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 14, 2008 Sunday
National Edition
Where to Direct All That Rage
BYLINE: By BEN STEIN.
Ben Stein is a lawyer, writer, actor and economist. E-mail: ebiz@nytimes.com
SECTION: Section BU; Column 0; Money and Business/Financial Desk; EVERYBODY'S BUSINESS; Pg. 6
LENGTH: 915 words
EARLIER this month I was flying home to Los Angeles from the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, which I attended as a pundit, not a politician. Sitting next to me on the flight was a charming young man named Tom Morello. Ruthless questioning elicited the fact that he is the lead guitar for a fabulously successful band called Rage Against the Machine.
This band sings about inequality and oppression in the world, mostly, as far as I can tell, in the Western world, and, these days, mostly in George W. Bush's world. In the process, all of the band members have become well-heeled indeed. Raging against the machine -- which I am morally certain is done by the band with utmost sincerity -- pays well sometimes. I must add that Mr. Morello is a gentleman and amazingly talented and that I would be happy if I had his composure.
But as I pondered this band's act, my brain turned to the presidential campaign. In particular, I was struck by how angry both sides are at ''Washington.''
I am not certain what they mean by Washington. The city itself has terrible humidity and awful traffic, but that's clearly not what they are talking about. I think they mean the way government does business, and here I am puzzled by both sides' anger, but especially by Senator John McCain's.
First, there's the endless complaining about waste, fraud and abuse in Washington. I have been following politics since I was 7, when Dwight D. Eisenhower first ran against Adlai Stevenson. In that election and all those after, and probably long before, all candidates told us how there was a lot of waste, fraud and abuse, and that they would find it and rip it out root and branch, and that the government would then run cleanly and thriftily.
Somehow, it never happens. There always seems to be more waste, fraud and abuse to complain about. And if my poor old memory doesn't fail me, the endless investigations of waste, fraud and abuse turn up pretty small potatoes in a federal budget approximating $2.4 trillion. And even if earmarks were totally wasteful, I read that they totaled $18 billion last year. Not pennies, for sure, but a tiny blemish on a federal budget roughly 150 times that sum.
Besides, what one person calls waste -- say, an urban economist talking about ethanol subsidies -- is, in the eyes of an Iowa corn farmer, basic salvation of our energy independence. What another person calls waste -- an enormously expensive new fighter bomber -- is a defense of freedom to another equally patriotic American.
It's sometimes awfully hard to define waste. It's largely subjective. And as far as I can tell, it's either not a huge number, or it is so deeply woven into the fabric of government that it cannot be determined. So maybe we should not pay much attention when Senator Barack Obama tells us that he will read every line of the federal budget, which contains thousands upon thousands of lines, and extirpate the projects that are wasteful. (How could he find the time? How would he know on a reading which were wasteful? )
Maybe we shouldn't pay much mind when Senator McCain promises to embarrass legislators who want pork for their districts. I imagine that he may want to have a few friends on the Hill, and I notice a lot of new highways in Arizona on my frequent trips there.
Then there is that aspect of the war against Washington in which candidates -- very often, my fellow Republicans -- rage against the machine of regulation. Indeed, this is a constant refrain of the conservatives I call my pals. Regulation is stifling growth and entrepreneurship, they say.
With respect, I don't see it. Look at the major debacles in the economy in the past quarter-century. The junk-bond scandal of the 1980s was largely a result of a failure of regulation. The tech boom of the 1990s and the subsequent bust were greatly facilitated by a lack of regulation over fiduciary behavior by underwriters and investment banks. The problem was not too much regulation, but far too little.
OR look at the current financial madness caused by wildly imprudent lending by major banks and investment banks. Basically, a major piece of deregulation, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, overturned most of the laws that had kept commercial banks and investment banks separate. This made it much easier for monster-size banks to lay down enormous bets on the direction of housing prices.
When these bets turned out to be wrong, the losses to the banks and their stockholders were staggering. (Naturally, those who approved these wagers left, if they left at all, with monster-size severance. You and I will pick up the monster-size bill in many different ways.)
My point is that Washington -- that is, the federal government -- is not really to blame for all of our current problems. (One glaring exception is the war in Iraq.) Or, to put a finer point upon it, in some ways Washington was not doing too much, but should have been doing more -- meaning more regulation and more prosecution.
I know that it's all just politics and that politicians will say a lot to be elected. But it's good to know the truth, too. The government is just a lot of men and women. Most of them are working hard, trying to do their best and not stealing anything. Most are modestly paid, and sometimes they wear uniforms, carrying M-4s and risking their lives for us.
Washington is not the problem. Human nature is the problem, and that's going to be a tough nut to crack. That's the machine to rage against.
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The New York Times
September 14, 2008 Sunday
Late Edition - Final
Making America Stupid
BYLINE: By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN.
Nicholas D. Kristof is off today.
SECTION: Section WK; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 11
LENGTH: 824 words
Imagine for a minute that attending the Republican convention in St. Paul, sitting in a skybox overlooking the convention floor, were observers from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. And imagine for a minute what these observers would have been doing when Rudy Giuliani led the delegates in a chant of ''drill, baby, drill!''
I'll tell you what they would have been doing: the Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan observers would have been up out of their seats, exchanging high-fives and joining in the chant louder than anyone in the hall -- ''Yes! Yes! Drill, America, drill!'' -- because an America that is focused first and foremost on drilling for oil is an America more focused on feeding its oil habit than kicking it.
Why would Republicans, the party of business, want to focus our country on breathing life into a 19th-century technology -- fossil fuels -- rather than giving birth to a 21st-century technology -- renewable energy? As I have argued before, it reminds me of someone who, on the eve of the I.T. revolution -- on the eve of PCs and the Internet -- is pounding the table for America to make more I.B.M. typewriters and carbon paper. ''Typewriters, baby, typewriters.''
Of course, we're going to need oil for many years, but instead of exalting that -- with ''drill, baby, drill'' -- why not throw all our energy into innovating a whole new industry of clean power with the mantra ''invent, baby, invent?'' That is what a party committed to ''change'' would really be doing. As they say in Texas: ''If all you ever do is all you've ever done, then all you'll ever get is all you ever got.''
I dwell on this issue because it is symbolic of the campaign that John McCain has decided to run. It's a campaign now built on turning everything possible into a cultural wedge issue -- including even energy policy, no matter how stupid it makes the voters and no matter how much it might weaken America.
I respected McCain's willingness to support the troop surge in Iraq, even if it was going to cost him the Republican nomination. Now the same guy, who would not sell his soul to win his party's nomination, is ready to sell every piece of his soul to win the presidency.
In order to disguise the fact that the core of his campaign is to continue the same Bush policies that have led 80 percent of the country to conclude we're on the wrong track, McCain has decided to play the culture-war card. Obama may be a bit professorial, but at least he is trying to unite the country to face the real issues rather than divide us over cultural differences.
A Washington Post editorial on Thursday put it well: ''On a day when the Congressional Budget Office warned of looming deficits and a grim economic outlook, when the stock market faltered even in the wake of the government's rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, when President Bush discussed the road ahead in Iraq and Afghanistan, on what did the campaign of Senator John McCain spend its energy? A conference call to denounce Senator Barack Obama for using the phrase 'lipstick on a pig' and a new television ad accusing the Democrat of wanting to teach kindergartners about sex before they learn to read.''
Some McCain supporters criticize Obama for not having the steel in his belly to use force in the dangerous world we live in today. Well I know this: In order to use force, you have to have force. In order to exercise leverage, you have to have leverage.
I don't know how much steel is in Obama's belly, but I do know that the issues he is focusing on in this campaign -- improving education and health care, dealing with the deficit and forging a real energy policy based on building a whole new energy infrastructure -- are the only way we can put steel back into America's spine. McCain, alas, has abandoned those issues for the culture-war strategy.
Who cares how much steel John McCain has in his gut when the steel that today holds up our bridges, railroads, nuclear reactors and other infrastructure is rusting? McCain talks about how he would build dozens of nuclear power plants. Oh, really? They go for $10 billion a pop. Where is the money going to come from? From lowering taxes? From banning abortions? From borrowing more from China? From having Sarah Palin ''reform'' Washington -- as if she has any more clue how to do that than the first 100 names in the D.C. phonebook?
Sorry, but there is no sustainable political/military power without economic power, and talking about one without the other is nonsense. Unless we make America the country most able to innovate, compete and win in the age of globalization, our leverage in the world will continue to slowly erode. Those are the issues this election needs to be about, because that is what the next four years need to be about.
There is no strong leader without a strong country. And posing as one, to use the current vernacular, is nothing more than putting lipstick on a pig.
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The Washington Post
September 14, 2008 Sunday
Regional Edition
Campaign, and Complaints, Heat Up
BYLINE: Deborah Howell
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. B06
LENGTH: 906 words
Election frenzy is at full pitch; incoming partisan fire was smoking in my inbox when I returned from a Wyoming hiking trip.
Unsurprisingly, the No. 1 topic was John McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, a rifle-toting, moose-skinning, snowmobiling, Bible-believing, Alaskan mother of five -- as exotic to this area as Barack Obama's biracial heritage and his childhood in Hawaii and Indonesia would be elsewhere.
First, readers complained that an all-Obama front page on Aug. 29, the day after his nomination acceptance speech, wasn't matched by an all-McCain front page on Sept. 5, the day after his speech. Ed Thiede, assistant managing editor for the news desk, said that happened because "Aug. 28 was a day with less news competing for Page 1, while Sept. 4 was a more competitive day."
Then McCain and Palin's large Fairfax County rally was on the Metro section front page Thursday; a June 6 rally for Obama at Nissan Pavilion was on Page A1. Thiede said, "We had a busier day with more competing for A1 play Wednesday, including a main art package commemorating the opening of the Sept. 11 memorial." These are logical answers in a newsroom, but they don't cut it with Republican-leaning readers, especially when, as I've reported, Obama has had a preponderance of Page 1 stories and photos throughout the paper.
Many readers think The Post is trying to skewer Palin. While some opinion writers have, news coverage has not been overtly negative. The Post's duty is to report anything pertinent about Palin -- the least known of the candidates. She did have changing views on Alaska's "Bridge to Nowhere." An item in The Trail political blog overdid it in using the word "slash" to describe her line-item veto of funds for pregnant teenagers; Palin did cut some proposed funds, but, overall, the program got more money.
Speaking of overdoing it, a political cartoon by Pat Oliphant that appeared on washingtonpost.com Wednesday prompted complaints from about 350 readers who said he lampooned their faith. The cartoon showed Palin speaking in tongues, an aspect of worship in some Pentecostal churches, and then God telling St. Peter that he didn't understand what she was saying -- "All I can hear is some dam' right-wing politician spouting gibberish."
Readers were right to complain; I will deal with political cartooning in another column. Political cartoons and comics aren't selected at washingtonpost.com the way they are for The Post in print; they are automatically posted.
Oliphant's Universal Press Syndicate advertises him this way: "No one is safe from the acid brush of Pat Oliphant.. a master of what he calls 'confrontational art' . . . [who] spares neither the liberal nor conservative, sinner nor saint."
Some readers complained that The Post prominently displayed the story reporting the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, Bristol. Yolanda R. Smith of Crofton wrote that "what this has to do with her public persona is beyond me." She said the coverage "reeks of elitism, chauvinism -- after all the only competent woman must be a liberal one." The McCain campaign released the information, and Bristol and her boyfriend were on stage the last night of the convention. That was news.
Last week, most of the complaints were about a story Tuesday by James V. Grimaldi and Karl Vick about per-diem payments that Palin and family members received while living in their home in Wasilla, an Anchorage suburb. Palin goes to the capital in Juneau only during legislative sessions.
Many readers thought it was a non-story; others, like Bill Phelps of Indianapolis, objected to the headline -- "Palin Billed State for Nights Spent at Home" -- and called it, as Phelps did, "inaccurate and misleading, as the article repeatedly emphasizes Gov. Palin acted within the law." The story's third paragraph noted the legality of the payments. It was a legitimate story; the headline was accurate.
Other stories were straightforward -- a Sept. 2 Style piece headlined "Gov. Mom"; a Sept. 7 story on how Palin weaves family and politics; an article Wednesday on how Palin has energized female voters; a Style story Thursday on her local fans. Editorial writer Ruth Marcus wrote a sensitive commentary on how Palin has sparked conversation about balancing motherhood and work.
Glenn Merritt of Vienna thought that TV critic Tom Shales and TV columnist Lisa de Moraes, both of whom are paid to write opinion, took "cheap shots" at Palin's convention speech. Shales said it was filled with "malicious zeal" and was "crudely effective"; he called Obama's convention speech "refreshingly combative." While de Moraes wrote that Palin's speech was "venom-infused," she also wrote it was "electrifying" and "riveting." Chris Cillizza, author of washingtonpost.com's political blog, The Fix, rated her speech No. 1 of all the convention speeches.
The danger in campaign reporting is focusing on the day-to-day events, polls and gaffes and not on what most readers want to know: Who are these people, what do they stand for and how would they govern?
In biography, The Post did an excellent job in special sections by David Maraniss about Obama's parents and his childhood and adolescent years and by Michael Leahy on McCain's Navy family and how it shaped his life. Convention coverage was fair and even.
Still, there's much reporting to be done before Election Day.
Deborah Howell can be reached at 202-334-7582 or at ombudsman@washpost.com
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The Washington Post
September 14, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Group With Swift Boat Alumni Readies Ads Attacking Obama;
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BYLINE: Matthew Mosk and Chris Cillizza; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A07
LENGTH: 932 words
A new group financed by a Texas billionaire and organized by some of the same political operatives and donors behind the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign against Sen. John F. Kerry in 2004 plans to begin running television ads attacking Barack Obama, a signal that outside groups may play a larger role than anticipated in the closing days of the presidential race.
The American Issues Project has amassed a multimillion-dollar fund, and the group is putting the final touches on an eleventh-hour campaign targeting the Democratic presidential nominee, sources said.
"We expect to be doing both issues and express advocacy between now and November and beyond," said Christian Pinkston, a spokesman for the group.
The effort could mark a sharp turn in what has been an unusually quiet year for outside political groups. At this point in 2004, such groups had already spent about $100 million dollars on television commercials attacking Kerry (D-Mass.) and President Bush, but they have devoted $8 million to ads so far in this election cycle.
The resurgence on the right appears as though it will not go unanswered. The Service Employees International Union is set to unveil a multimillion-dollar television campaign on Monday, and other liberal and Democratic-aligned groups are rushing to establish financing for efforts over the final weeks of the campaign.
At the outset of the general election, both Obama and Republican nominee John McCain called on outside groups to stay on the sidelines, hoping to steer funds to their own campaigns and party committees. Several initial attempts to organize independent groups for the 2008 presidential contest fizzled early on. But as the back and forth has grown more intense in recent weeks, both campaigns have signaled that their opposition to such efforts is softening.
AIP emerged on the scene in August, airing controversial anti-Obama ads in four battleground states -- Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- that sought to raise questions about his ties to William Ayers, a member of the Vietnam War-era radical group known as the Weathermen. The ad was sponsored entirely -- at a cost of more than $2 million -- by Harold Simmons, a Dallas-based businessman who also helped fund the Swift boat activities four years ago.
The new group was launched by Chris LaCivita, who was intimately involved in the Swift boat campaign, and Tony Feather, one of the co-founders of Progress for America, which spent tens of millions backing Bush in 2004.
According to sources familiar with AIP, it has secured significant financial backing from a handful of major donors and is planning more ads like the Ayers commercial in the weeks between now and Election Day.
Four years ago, mid-September might have been too late to organize for November. But the rules for outside groups changed after a recent Supreme Court opinion that loosened restrictions on corporate and union electioneering within 60 days of the general election. That enabled groups such as AIP, which is organized as a nonprofit corporation, more leeway to launch last-minute attack ads.
On the Democratic side, much of that effort appears to be falling to labor unions and a handful of well-known advocacy groups such as MoveOn.org and the Sierra Club. In the spring, a coalition of liberal groups that included the AFL-CIO announced plans to spend $350 million on political activities during the 2008 campaign season, but they have been slow in coming together.
Ilyse Hogue, the campaign director for MoveOn.org confirmed that the group will spearhead an ad campaign focused on what has emerged as the central theme of the fall campaign, the question of which candidate is better equipped to bring change to Washington.
"The fight is over whose plan for change is real, whose is genuine. And we're looking to put that in front of voters," Hogue said. "When you look at McCain and [GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah] Palin's ties to Big Oil, it doesn't pass the laugh test that they are for change."
Having spent recent elections watching conservative groups bombard Democratic candidates by taking a disciplined message to the television and talk radio airwaves, the leaders of several major left-leaning groups said they are ready to answer back.
"After years of watching the other side do this, it's finally something we've really gotten strong at," Hogue said.
But Republicans appear to have a head start. In April, Simmons, a corporate tycoon who had spent heavily on the Swift boat campaign, began holding meetings with other Swift boat donors to discuss renewing their effort for 2008-- meetings that included input from Bush's former strategist, Karl Rove.
At one of the meetings, Simmons presented his plans to oilman T. Boone Pickens, another financier of the Swift boat efforts, at a gathering in Simmons's Dallas office, Pickens said. Pickens ultimately chose not to get involved but said several others decided to forge ahead. Rove is not directly involved in the American Issues Project but has provided advice to a group targeting Democratic candidates for the Senate and House, known as Freedom's Watch.
American Issues Project is organized as a qualified 501(c)4 under Internal Revenue Service guidelines. As such an entity, AIP must use 60 percent of all its funding to make issues-based appeals but can use the remaining 40 percent to directly advocate for or against the election of a candidate. Any money spent for express advocacy must be reported through the Federal Election Commission, meaning that donors to the group will eventually have their identities revealed.
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The Washington Post
September 14, 2008 Sunday
Suburban Edition
Obama Points to the Issues;
Ignore Attacks, Democrat Implores
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A10
LENGTH: 757 words
DATELINE: MANCHESTER, N.H., Sept. 13
Sen. Barack Obama brought his newly aggressive campaign against Republican opponent John McCain to an open-air rally here, castigating the senator from Arizona as a latecomer to the cause of change and imploring about 8,000 Granite State citizens to ignore the GOP's barrage of negative attacks.
"The McCain-Palin ticket, they don't want to debate the Obama-Biden ticket on the issues, because they're running on eight more years," Obama said under a sunny sky at Veterans Memorial Park. "They will try to distort my record, and they will try to undermine your trust in what the Democrats want to do. . . . But the times are too serious for those strategies to work this time."
After a long period of focusing his attention on more intimate events in high school gyms and work sites that communicated the feel of a candidate meeting face-to-face with voters, Obama returned to large crowds with the Manchester rally. The McCain campaign had long criticized such big events as a form of "celebrity" worship but has itself adopted the format since the addition of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.
Saturday's event was toned down as Hurricane Ike ravaged Texas. An appearance by running mate Joseph R. Biden Jr. was scrapped. A scheduled appearance on "Saturday Night Live" was canceled.
Obama opened his rally here with an appeal for help for the Red Cross and hurricane victims in Texas. "During difficult times, during moments of tragedy, the American people come together," he said.
But unlike his response during Hurricane Gustav, Obama did not declare a temporary cease-fire -- an acknowledgment of the shifting dynamics of the presidential campaign since the end of the Democratic convention. Instead, Obama quickly pivoted from sympathy for the victims of Ike to a more aggressive speech focused squarely on the struggling economy, saying that "there are a lot of quiet storms going on all across America" in the form of job losses, spiraling health-care and college costs, and schools that are "underfunded and uninspired."
"People are concerned not just for their immediate well-being, but they're concerned about what happened to that promise, what happened to that dream? Are we going to be the first generation that passes on a country that is a little less prosperous, a little less unified and a little meaner than the last generation?" he said, intoning the phrase that has become his theme since the Democratic convention. "We are here to say enough is enough."
McCain, who was off the campaign trail Saturday, issued a statement about Hurricane Ike expressing concern that "there may have been a substantial loss of life." He added: "We do know that the economic impact from this storm will be severe. . . . But our priority now must be to help the relief effort in any way we can, and to pray for the safety of those in the storm's path."
Meanwhile, his campaign, under fire for the negative tone it has employed over the last week, tried to shift that criticism to Obama.
"It says a lot about Barack Obama's judgment that while his campaign canceled his appearance on 'Saturday Night Live' and his running mate stayed home, Obama went ahead and delivered a series of scathing personal attacks," said McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds, calling the speech "a new low." McCain was off the campaign trail on Saturday but also planned to stump in New Hampshire on Sunday.
The Obama campaign did not let up.
"We will take no lectures from John McCain, who is cynically running the sleaziest and least honorable campaign in modern presidential campaign history," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.
As the senator from Illinois spoke, the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee officially highlighted a campaign commercial castigating McCain as a tool of Washington lobbyists. "His campaign manager lobbies for corporations outsourcing American jobs," the ad states, flashing an image of McCain with top aide Rick Davis. "The campaign chairman he picked last year . . . a bank lobbyist," it continues, with an image of McCain and former Texas senator Phil Gramm. "If seven of McCain's top advisers are lobbyists, who do you think will run his White House?"
Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod insisted that Palin has energized conservative Republicans mainly in Republican states that were going to vote for McCain regardless of whom he selected.
"There's not going to be a person in America who by the end of these next weeks will not understand who represents change and who represents more of the same," Axelrod boasted.
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The New York Times
September 13, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
Portraying McCain as a Man of the Past
BYLINE: By JEFF ZELENY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 13
LENGTH: 411 words
This 30-second advertisement for Senator Barack Obama was introduced Friday and is to run on national cable networks and on television stations in some swing states.
PRODUCER The Obama Media Team
THE SCRIPT An announcer says: ''1982. John McCain goes to Washington. Things have changed in the last 26 years, but McCain hasn't. He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send an e-mail. Still doesn't understand the economy. And favors 200 billion in new tax cuts for corporations, but almost nothing for the middle class. After one president who was out of touch, we just can't afford more of the same.''
ON SCREEN The commercial opens with an image of a disco ball and 1982 flashes on the screen. A younger Mr. McCain, a new congressman, is shown at a hearing. His hair, longer than it is today, is rumpled and his large glasses offer a retro look. An old cellphone, a record player, an early-model computer and a Rubik's Cube flash on the screen. Fast-forward to present day, a Macintosh computer is shown. A video clip shows Mr. McCain stepping from a golf cart with former President George Bush, with the words ''Doesn't understand the economy.'' Champagne flutes clink and a family shopping at a supermarket appears as the message turns to tax cuts. The advertisement closes with Mr. McCain grinning as he stands by the current President Bush.
ACCURACY Mr. McCain has told reporters that he does not regularly use a computer and was trying to learn how to send e-mail messages. A quotation from last year about Mr. McCain not understanding the economy can be misleading because it omits statements he has since made. The tax argument accurately states that Mr. McCain favors reducing the corporate income tax rate. The bulk of his tax-cutting proposals would benefit those with higher incomes, while Mr. Obama says he wants much larger tax breaks for low- and middle-income Americans.
SCORECARD The overriding message of this advertisement is that Mr. McCain -- who is 72, though the commercial never mentions that -- is out of touch and out of date. The Obama campaign says the intention is to show how long Mr. McCain has served in Washington, but it also suggests that he may not be equipped to handle today's fast-moving problems. By linking him to two Bush presidents, the advertisement tries to deflate the message that McCain would be a candidate of change. But will Mr. Obama attract older voters with this message? JEFF ZELENY
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McCain Barbs Stirring Outcry As Distortions
BYLINE: By MICHAEL COOPER and JIM RUTENBERG; Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting from Dover, N.H.
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Harsh advertisements and negative attacks are a staple of presidential campaigns, but Senator John McCain has drawn an avalanche of criticism this week from Democrats, independent groups and even some Republicans for regularly stretching the truth in attacking Senator Barack Obama's record and positions.
Mr. Obama has also been accused of distortions, but this week Mr. McCain has found himself under particularly heavy fire for a pair of headline-grabbing attacks. First the McCain campaign twisted Mr. Obama's words to suggest that he had compared Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, to a pig after Mr. Obama said, in questioning Mr. McCain's claim to be the change agent in the race, ''You can put lipstick on a pig; it's still a pig.'' (Mr. McCain once used the same expression to describe Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's health plan.)
Then he falsely claimed that Mr. Obama supported ''comprehensive sex education'' for kindergartners (he supported teaching them to be alert for inappropriate advances from adults).
Those attacks followed weeks in which Mr. McCain repeatedly, and incorrectly, asserted that Mr. Obama would raise taxes on the middle class, even though analysts say he would cut taxes on the middle class more than Mr. McCain would, and misrepresented Mr. Obama's positions on energy and health care.
A McCain advertisement called ''Fact Check'' was itself found to be ''less than honest'' by FactCheck.org, a nonpartisan group. The group complained that the McCain campaign had cited its work debunking various Internet rumors about Ms. Palin and implied in the advertisement that the rumors had originated with Mr. Obama.
In an interview Friday on the NY1 cable news channel, a McCain supporter, Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, called ''ridiculous'' the implication that Mr. Obama's ''lipstick on a pig'' comment was a reference to Ms. Palin, whom he also defended as coming under unfair attack.
''The last month, for sure,'' said Don Sipple, a Republican advertising strategist, ''I think the predominance of liberty taken with truth and the facts has been more McCain than Obama.''
Indeed, in recent days, Mr. McCain has been increasingly called out by news organizations, editorial boards and independent analysts like FactCheck.org. The group, which does not judge whether one candidate is more misleading than another, has cried foul on Mr. McCain more than twice as often since the start of the political conventions as it has on Mr. Obama.
A McCain spokesman, Brian Rogers, said the campaign had evidence for all its claims. ''We stand fully by everything that's in our ads,'' Mr. Rogers said, ''and everything that we've been saying we provide detailed backup for -- everything. And if you and the Obama campaign want to disagree, that's your call.''
Mr. McCain came into the race promoting himself as a truth teller and has long publicly deplored the kinds of negative tactics that helped sink his candidacy in the Republican primaries in 2000. But his strategy now reflects a calculation advisers made this summer -- over the strenuous objections of some longtime hands who helped him build his ''Straight Talk'' image -- to shift the campaign more toward disqualifying Mr. Obama in the eyes of voters.
''I think the McCain folks realize if they can get this thing down in the mud, drag Obama into the mud, that's where they have the best advantage to win,'' said Matthew Dowd, who worked with many top McCain campaign advisers when he was President Bush's chief strategist in the 2004 campaign, but who has since had a falling out with the White House. ''If they stay up at 10,000 feet, they don't.''
For all the criticism, the offensive seems to be having an impact. It has been widely credited by strategists in both parties with rejuvenating Mr. McCain's campaign and putting Mr. Obama on the defensive since it began early this summer.
Some who have criticized Mr. McCain have accused him of blatant untruths and of failing to correct himself when errors were pointed out.
On Friday on ''The View,'' generally friendly territory for politicians, one co-host, Joy Behar, criticized his new advertisements. ''We know that those two ads are untrue,'' Ms. Behar said. ''They are lies. And yet you, at the end of it, say, 'I approve these messages.' Do you really approve them?''
''Actually they are not lies,'' Mr. McCain said crisply, ''and have you seen some of the ads that are running against me?''
Mr. Obama's hands have not always been clean in this regard. He was called out earlier for saying, incorrectly, that Mr. McCain supported a ''hundred-year war'' in Iraq after Mr. McCain said in January that he would be fine with a hypothetical 100-year American presence in Iraq, as long as Americans were not being injured or killed there.
More recently, Mr. Obama has been criticized for advertisements that have distorted Mr. McCain's record on schools financing and incorrectly accused him of not supporting loan guarantees for the auto industry -- a hot topic in Michigan. He has also taken Mr. McCain's repeated comments that American economy is ''fundamentally sound'' out of context, leaving out the fact that Mr. McCain almost always adds at the same time that he understands that times are tough and ''people are hurting.''
But sensing an opening in the mounting criticism of Mr. McCain, the Obama campaign released a withering statement after Mr. McCain's appearance on ''The View.''
''In running the sleaziest campaign since South Carolina in 2000 and standing by completely debunked lies on national television, it's clear that John McCain would rather lose his integrity than lose an election,'' Hari Sevugan, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, said in a statement.
At an event in Dover, N.H., a voter asked Mr. Obama when he would start ''fighting back.'' Mr. Obama, who began his own confrontational advertising campaign Friday, said, ''Our ads have been pretty tough, but I just have a different philosophy that I'm going to respond with the truth.''
''I'm not going to start making up lies about John McCain,'' Mr. Obama said.
The McCain advertisements are devised to draw the interest of bloggers and cable news producers -- but not necessarily always intended for wide, actual use on television stations -- to shift the terms of the debate by questioning Mr. Obama's character and qualifications.
Mr. Sipple, the Republican strategist, voiced concern that Mr. McCain's approach could backfire. ''Any campaign that is taking liberty with the truth and does it in a serial manner will end up paying for it in the end,'' he said. ''But it's very unbecoming to a political figure like John McCain whose flag was planted long ago in ground that was about 'straight talk' and integrity.''
The campaign has also been selective in its portrayal of Mr. McCain's running mate, Ms. Palin. The campaign's efforts to portray her as the bane of federal earmark spending was complicated by evidence that she had sought a great deal of federal money both as governor of Alaska and as mayor of Wasilla.
Ms. Palin has often told audiences about pulling the plug on the so-called Bridge to Nowhere, an expensive federal project to build a bridge to a sparsely populated Alaskan island that became a symbol of wasteful federal spending. ''I told Congress, 'Thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere in Alaska,'' she said this week in Virginia.
But her position was more like ''please'' before it became ''no thanks.'' Ms. Palin supported the bridge project while running for governor, and abandoned it after it became a national scandal and Congress said the state could keep the money for other projects. As a mayor and governor, she hired lobbyists to request millions in federal spending for Alaska. In an ABC News interview on Friday with Charles Gibson, Ms. Palin largely stuck to her version of the events.
Disputed characterizations are not uncommon on the trail. At a campaign stop this week in Missouri, Mr. McCain said that Mr. Obama's plan would ''force small businesses to cut jobs and reduce wages and force families into a government-run health care system where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor.''
Jonathan B. Oberlander, who teaches health policy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said that Mr. Obama's plan would not force families into a government-run system. ''I would say this is an inaccurate and false characterization of the Obama plan,'' he said. ''I don't use those words lightly.''
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Senator John Mc- Cain paid visits on Friday to both ''The View,'' where Joy Behar, third from right, said two of his advertisements were ''lies,'' and ''The Rachael Ray Show.''(PHOTOGRAPH BY STEVE FENN/ABC)(pg. A14) CHART: The Reality Behind the Claims: Senator John McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, have been criticized for a number of recent false, incomplete or misleading claims in his commercials and on the stump. Chart details facts. (pg. A14)
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Inside The Times: September 13th, 2008
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international
CHANNEL TUNNEL CLOSED
After Overnight Fire
The Channel Tunnel that links Britain and the Continent was closed after an overnight blaze that reached temperatures as high as 1,800 degrees. The fire, which broke out on Thursday on a France-bound freight train, may have started on one of the trucks it was carrying, safety officials said. PAGE A8
U.S. AIRSTRIKE IN PAKISTAN KILLS 12
The intensified American campaign against suspected Al Qaeda and Taliban militants in Pakistan's tribal areas continued. Two missiles fired from remotely piloted American aircraft killed 12 people in an attack on a compound in North Waziristan, according to a local journalist and television reports. The attack struck the home of a local tribesman, Yousaf Khan Wazir, who was among the dead, the journalist said. PAGE A9
31 KILLED IN ATTACK NEAR BAGHDAD
At least 31 people were killed and 60 were wounded in a car bomb attack in the center of the predominately Shiite town of Dujail, north of Baghdad, according to Iraqi police officers in Dujail and in the provincial capital, Tikrit. PAGE A9
CHINA'S MIGHT USED IN DEAL
As part of an incentive package to persuade Costa Rica to shift its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People's Republic of China last year, China used the muscle of its enormous foreign exchange reserves, agreeing to buy $300 million in Costa Rican bonds. PAGE A8
LOAN SIGNALS DISMAY WITH RUSSIA
The executive board of the Asian Development Bank unanimously approved a $40 million loan to Georgia at the lowest possible interest rate, the latest sign of Asian dissatisfaction with Russian military action in Georgia. PAGE A10
IN FRANCE, POPE SPEAKS ABOUT FAITH
In his first visit to France as pope, Benedict XVI touched on central themes of his papacy -- the tensions between faith and reason and church and state, as well as his efforts to reach out to Muslims and Jews -- and urged an increasingly irreligious Europe to look back to its intellectual roots in Christian monastic culture. PAGE A8
CHINA EXAMINES INFANT FORMULA
China's Health Ministry announced a nationwide inquiry into the safety of all infant formulas, as a team of investigators from six government agencies descended on the milk powder factory that produced formula now linked to one baby's death and kidney problems in at least 50 more. PAGE A10
Russia's Stock Market Slump Persists A10
Power in Zimbabwe Deal Is Unclear A6
NATIONAL
STUBBORN BUNCH
Rides Out Storm in Galveston
As the storm surge from Hurricane Ike began battering the island of Galveston and officials warned that ''certain death'' awaited anyone who failed to evacuate, a reckless and stubborn bunch ignored the warnings. ''We never punked out before. Why start now?'' said the owner of the Poop Deck, a biker bar just stumbling distance from the waterfront. PAGE A15
SUBPOENA FOR TODD PALIN APPROVED
Alaska lawmakers voted to issue a subpoena to Todd Palin, the husband of Gov. Sarah Palin, in an escalation of the inquiry into whether Ms. Palin improperly tried to get her former brother-in-law fired from his job as a state trooper. The subpoena was one of 14 approved by the State Senate Judiciary Committee, setting the stage for a potential legal clash between the Legislature and the Palin administration. PAGE A12
PLAN TO EXPAND F.B.I. TOOLS
The Justice Department made public a plan to expand the tools the Federal Bureau of Investigation can use to investigate suspicions of terrorism inside the United States, even without any direct evidence of wrongdoing. It would, for instance, allow an F.B.I. agent to pursue an anonymous tip about possible terrorism by conducting an undercover interview or watching someone in a public place. Such investigative steps are now prohibited unless there is more specific evidence of wrongdoing. PAGE A11
Anthrax Suspect's Last Wishes A11
Biden Son Resigns as Lobbyist A13
OBITUARIES
RALPH PLAISTED, 80
An insurance man by profession, he was probably the first man to reach the North Pole when he crossed the polar ice cap by snowmobile in 1968. PAGE B5
ALAIN JACQUET, 69
A French artist known for his playful modernizations of old master paintings, he was associated with Pop Art and the minimovement known as Mec Art (for mechanical art), making use of mechanical processes and advertising cliches in photoscreened works like his ''Dejeuner sur l'Herbe'' series. PAGE B5
HELEN GALLAND, 83
One of the few women of her time to run a fashion-oriented retailer, she began her career as a sales assistant at Lord & Taylor and presided over the Bonwit Teller chain from 1980 to 1983. She is credited with having restored some of the store's luster at a time when the company had undergone a decline in its image. PAGE B5
metro
IMAGES OF BROADWAY'S GOLDEN AGE
Are Veiled in Dispute With Library
Thousands of famous images by the theater photographer Leo Friedman -- young lovers holding hands on a street of tenements in ''West Side Story,'' Rex Harrison looking over a shabby Julie Andrews in ''My Fair Lady,'' Robert Preston conducting his make-believe trombones in ''The Music Man'' -- are in limbo, caught in a dispute between the photographer and the New York Public Library's performing arts collection at Lincoln Center, where the pictures were sent in 1971. PAGE B3
WALL STREET GROWS SHAKIER
Early last year, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Senator Charles E. Schumer sounded the alarm that New York City was in danger of losing its status as the world's pre-eminent financial hub to London. Now that Lehman Brothers is on the verge of following Bear Stearns onto the casualty list of major investment firms, officials and economists are worrying even more, saying that the city's days as the clear leader of global finance may be ending. PAGE B1
SPORTS
A STRONG ARM AND A STRONG MIND
In U.S.C.'s Starting Quarterback
When Mark Sanchez took batting practice as a teenager, his father would quiz him on the periodic table. And when he would drop back to pass a football, he would also have to know who the 13th president was. (Answer: Millard Fillmore.) If Sanchez did not understand then the demands his father placed on him, he does now. He is the starting quarterback for U.S.C.'s top-ranked Trojans. PAGE D3
THE CAN'T-MISS PROSPECT WHO DID
The player who was supposed to redefine the linebacker position in the N.F.L. now plays fantasy football. The player who created so much hysteria at Ohio State that people waited outside his shower for autographs now solicits clients for his personal training studio. And the player who was stigmatized by Sports Illustrated, which called him the consummate dumb jock of the 1990s, is back in college pursuing his degree. It is indeed strange how things turned out for Andy Katzenmoyer. PAGE D1
THE LESSONS OF A METS COLLAPSE
Last year, a heady streak that saw the Mets win seven of nine games set the team up for one of the greatest falls in baseball history. This year's team, with its comparatively slim lead, will prosper where last year's team stumbled precisely because of the 2007 swoon. They were humbled and shocked. And this is what gives this Mets something they may have lacked last season: collective mettle. William C. Rhoden, Sports of the Times. PAGE D1
BUSINESS
POLICYMAKERS TO DETERMINE
Who Will Lose Homes
The government intervention in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a growing number of banks puts federal agencies in the powerful, and awkward, position of deciding which borrowers will receive help and which will lose their homes. And while the Bush administration is leaving it to the next president to decide how the mortgage finance companies will operate further out, the actions taken by their conservators will have an immediate influence on the cost of stabilizing the nation's housing market. PAGE C1
THE LATEST SIGN OF A SLOWDOWN
News on the economy was mixed, with the price index for finished goods falling 0.9 percent in August and consumer spending on retail and food decreasing 0.3 percent, according to the Census Bureau. ''It's a ray of hope on the inflationary front, but dark clouds on the horizon for consumers,'' the chief economist at Merk Mutual Funds said. PAGE C4
BRITISH TOUR OPERATOR SHUTS DOWN
Britain's already struggling travel industry suffered a series of setbacks when a large tour operator collapsed, British Airways offered thousands of managers a buyout and Richard Branson of Virgin Atlantic said he would fight ''tooth and nail'' to prevent a combination of British Airways with American Airlines. PAGE C3
STRONG RETURNS FOR HARVARD
The endowment of Harvard University, among the most closely watched in the country, said it had earned 8.6 percent in its fiscal year ending June 30. That return brought the value of the foundation to $36.9 billion. Harvard said it had outperformed its internal benchmark and that its returns put it in the fifth percentile of the 165 large institutional funds measured by the Trust Universe Comparison Services. PAGE C3
ALITALIA RESCUE PLAN NEAR COLLAPSE
The future of Alitalia, the financially troubled Italian airline, hung in the balance as its unions and an Italian investor group suspended talks over a bailout of the flagship carrier, with the unions citing ''insurmountable difficulties.'' With Alitalia losing more than a million euros, or $1.4 million, a day, the rescue plan from the investor group, known as CAI, is the only option on the table. PAGE C2
DEUTSCHE BANK STAKE IN POSTBANK
Deutsche Post agreed to sell about 30 percent of Postbank to Deutsche Bank in a deal worth 2.8 billion euros. Deutsche Bank, which is heavily dependent on volatile investment banking fees, will be able to sell its real estate and investment services through Postbank's retail network. The transaction, worth $3.9 billion, marks a further unwinding of what was once a mammoth German state monopoly that delivered letters, connected telephone calls and provided basic banking services. PAGE C3
Pressure to Spend on 'Special Days' C5
Arts
A CENTURY LATER, A LITERARY REPUTATION ON THE RISE
When the novelist Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis died 100 years ago this month, his passing went little noticed outside his native Brazil. But in recent years he has been transformed from a fringe figure in the English-speaking world to a literary favorite and trend setter, promoted by much more acclaimed writers and by critics as an unjustly neglected genius. Susan Sontag, an early and ardent admirer, once called him ''the greatest writer ever produced in Latin America,'' surpassing even Borges. PAGE B9
A TRAILBLAZER HEADS TO DALLAS
In his position as executive director of the Miller Theater at Columbia University, George Steel has turned the place into a hotbed of adventurous programming, and made the Miller an exemplar of audience outreach and dynamic commitment to contemporary music. Mr. Steel's admirers were baffled when the news came that he was leaving the Miller Theater to become the general director of the Dallas Opera. The Dallas Opera? Talk about conventional programming. But in a recent interview he sounded like someone who intended to shake things up in Dallas, Anthony Tommasini writes. PAGE B11
SONGS ARE JUST PART OF THE PACKAGE
A few songs into his set at B. B. King Blues Club & Grill, Wayne Brady, best known as a comedian and television host, decided that he needed to do something, he said, ''to address the people that are saying, 'Do something funny.' '' Up to that point no such request had been made, but that mattered little. Maybe it was an acknowledgment of the obvious: while Mr. Brady is an able vocalist, his singing works best as part of a broader package, where less is at stake, Jon Caramanica writes. PAGE B12
this weekend
BOOK REVIEW
Chuck Knoll won more Super Bowls with the Steelers; Bill Belichick has as many (and counting?) with the Patriots. But Bill Walsh of the 49ers is the subject of ''The Genius,'' with a subtitle that credits him with reinventing football. In his review, Gregory Cowles calls it ''a sports biography that is thorough, diligent, generous and honest.'' Need more? PAGE 20
TRAVEL
Purists (or survivalists) may scoff at the idea, but ''glamping'' -- the new term for upscale, or glamorous, camping -- could be ideal for those who want an outdoor experience without the outdoor fuss. ''We call it nature on a silver plate,'' one resort manager said. PAGE 4
ARTS & LEISURE
It was known as the ''Dakota Fanning rape movie'' at the Sundance Film Festival in 2007, got boos at a press screening and eviscerating reviews (Manohla Dargis called it ''overinflated rubbish''). But the film, actually titled ''Hounddog'' and with a radically different cut, will make it into 22 theaters across the country on Sept. 19. PAGE 15
Editorial
GOVERNOR PALIN'S WORLDVIEW
As we watched Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, the Republican vice presidential candidate, on TV the last couple of days, we kept wondering what on earth John McCain was thinking. page A18
EUROPE'S PROBLEM
Russia cannot be allowed to redraw Georgia's borders by force. Until the Europeans stand together -- and with the United States -- against Moscow's bullying, Russia's leaders will feel little pressure to change their behavior. page A18
THE SPIRIT OF PUBLIC SERVICE
At a forum at Columbia University, John McCain and Barack Obama took a break from their increasingly harsh presidential contest to speak with genuine passion about a worthy cause that they both share: engaging more Americans in national service. page A18
op-ed
BOB HERBERT
Gov. Sarah Palin's stumbling effort in the nationally televised interview showed just how reckless a choice she is for vice president. page A19
GAIL COLLINS
Though only on the Republican ticket a few weeks, Gov. Sarah Palin is already a totally different person. Did you see her being interviewed by Charlie Gibson, trying to slither away from saying anything controversial about foreign policy, rewriting her own history whenever it suited her? page A19
HEAD GAMES
The best way to tell if an athlete has had adequate rest after a concussion is to administer neuropsychological tests and compare the results with those from tests given before the injury. But, too often, injured athletes have not had the baseline tests, writes Gerald Tramontano in an Op-Ed essay. page A19
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The New York Times
September 13, 2008 Saturday
Late Edition - Final
A Big Regulator for the Little Investor
BYLINE: By WILLIAM R. GRUVER.
William R. Gruver is a professor of management at Bucknell University.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Pg. 19
LENGTH: 826 words
DATELINE: LEWISBURG, Pa.
ALMOST six months ago, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson proposed an ambitious consolidation of the regulatory agencies that police the nation's financial system. Unfortunately, since then the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve have been so busy reacting to crises -- just this week, taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and trying to broker a sale of Lehman Brothers -- that these long-term, systemic remedies have been punted to the next president.
The idea of a financial supercop should be embraced by a McCain or Obama administration. The place to start should be with a re-examination of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, which removed the 66-year-old separation between commercial banks (the kind that accept deposits and make loans) and investment banks (the kind that underwrite securities).
The separation began with the Banking Act of 1933, also known as the Glass-Steagall Act because it was written in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 by Senator Carter Glass of Virginia and Representative Henry Steagall of Alabama. The idea behind it was twofold: first, diffuse what was thought to be an excessive concentration of financial power in a limited number of large institutions, and second, prevent unsophisticated investors from being sold risky investments when they thought they were placing their savings in what we now call money-market accounts.
By 1999, however, the idea that risky investments and public deposits should never be offered by the same institution had become an anachronism of the New Deal. Foreign banks like UBS and Deutsche Bank engaged in both underwriting and in lending and deposit-taking, which put American banks at a competitive disadvantage in the global marketplace.
But when lawmakers permitted commercial banks and investment banks to merge into new behemoths like Citigroup, they did not follow through on the logical implication of their idea -- fusing the industry's regulatory overseers into a similar colossus. Instead, Congress allowed the government's financial regulatory structure to remain stuck in the 1930s, split among an array of agencies.
This piecemeal alteration of the law is continuing today. Earlier this year, for the first time since Glass-Steagall was enacted, the Federal Reserve allowed investment banks direct access to cheap, short-term loans from the Fed's discount window -- a privilege that by law had been limited to commercial banks. It was a necessary government response to a crisis. But the issue of oversight, of increased responsibility in exchange for increased privileges, remains unaddressed. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 (another one of Carter Glass's creations) needs to be amended to permit the Fed to oversee both investment banks and commercial banks in a financially integrated world.
We must avoid simply merging regulators and hoping for synergies. We need a system that focuses on the prevention of crimes and crises (similar to the British Financial Services Authority) instead of aiming only for after-the-fact discovery and punishment. Right now, the Securities and Exchange Commission conducts backward-looking audits, searching for past transgressions. Instead, federal regulators should focus on guiding companies, helping them to adhere to sound principles of risk management and to avoid imprudent business practices.
It is also time, though, to build a new wall of separation. Today, complex financial instruments like structured investment vehicles and auction-rate securities are marketed to unsophisticated buyers ranging from retail investors to corporate and government treasurers. In 1933, Glass-Steagall addressed the imbalance of power between the investors and the providers of financial services by separating the providers into commercial banks and investment banks. Seventy-five years later, instead of trying to limit what products innovative financial firms can offer, it would be more prudent to limit the markets to which they can sell their wares.
In other words, the customers, not the companies, should be divided. This could be accomplished by extending the current system of government classification of ''qualified investors,'' used to limit who can invest in things like hedge funds. By demonstrating expert knowledge or the ability to absorb loss (because of high net worth), qualified investors could be given a pass into the caveat emptor world of modern Wall Street. Those without the inclination, the sophistication or the deep pockets to qualify would be limited to the more closely regulated menu of stocks, bonds and mutual funds.
The lesson from the financial crises of the 20th century is that responsible politicians are not socialist demons trying to destroy capitalism. Carter Glass saved American capitalism through prudent regulation that prevented past excesses without stifling new innovation. The next administration will need to accomplish that feat again.
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Late Edition - Final
A Sharp Attack on Obama
BYLINE: By LARRY ROHTER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; THE AD CAMPAIGN; Pg. 14
LENGTH: 415 words
This advertisement for the Republican ticket of Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin is scheduled to be broadcast in what the McCain campaign describes as key states, though as of late Friday it had run only once, in Denver on Sept. 10. Called ''Disrespectful,'' it is 30 seconds long.
PRODUCER Foxhole Productions
SCRIPT ''He was the world's biggest celebrity, but his star is fading. So they lashed out at Sarah Palin. Dismissed her as 'good looking.' That backfired, so they said she was doing 'what she was told.' Then desperately called Sarah Palin a liar. How disrespectful. And how Gov. Sarah Palin proves them wrong, every day.''
THE SCREEN Senator Barack Obama is shown at a lectern, gesticulating, with crowd noises in the background and cameras flashing as a female voice speaks. Next, head shots of Mr. Obama and his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., fill the screen. As the accusations against Mr. Obama roll across the screen, his face alone appears, intermittently smiling, fretful or frowning. The final image is that of a smiling Mr. McCain standing at Ms. Palin's side as she speaks at a public event.
ACCURACY Mr. Obama is pictured when the phrase ''good looking'' appears on the screen, but it was actually Mr. Biden who made the remark, and clearly in a self-deprecating context. The Obama adviser accused of saying Ms. Palin was doing what she was told merely said that she might have been fed misinformation about Mr. Obama and repeated it. An Obama advertisement does accuse both Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin of ''lying'' about their records, in her case as regards her claimed opposition to the so-called bridge to nowhere, which she opposed only once it became a symbol of wasteful spending. And this is the second McCain advertisement to call Mr. Obama ''the world's biggest celebrity,'' a contention that will no doubt come as a surprise to several actors and athletes, and seems odd at a moment when Ms. Palin is omnipresent on television and in newspapers and magazines.
SCORECARD The advertisement is the latest in a number that resort to a dubious disregard for the facts. The nonpartisan political analysis group Factcheck.org has already criticized ''Disrespectful'' as ''particularly egregious,'' saying that it ''goes down new paths of deception,'' and is ''peddling false quotes.'' Even the title is troublesome. ''Disrespectful'' is one of those words that is loaded with racial and class connotations that many people consider offensive.
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The Washington Post
September 13, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
McCain Wraps Distortions Around One Truth
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A08
LENGTH: 331 words
THE AD
He was the world's biggest celebrity, but his star's fading. So they lashed out at Sarah Palin. Dismissed her as "good-looking." That backfired, so they said she was doing "what she was told." Then desperately called Sarah Palin a liar. How disrespectful. And how Governor Sarah Palin proves them wrong, every day.
ANALYSIS
This John McCain commercial, which contains two significant distortions, is part of a larger effort to rule criticism of his running mate out of bounds and to paint her as the victim of unfair attacks from both Democrats and the media.
The "they" is never specified here, but the notion that Barack Obama's campaign "dismissed" Sarah Palin based on her looks twists what was clearly a self-deprecating joke by his running mate, Joseph R. Biden Jr. The senator from Delaware laughed as he compared himself to the Alaska governor: "Well, there's obvious differences. She's good-looking."
The "doing what she was told" line is an exaggerated version of a comment by Obama strategist David Axelrod. "She tried to attack Obama by saying he had no significant legislative accomplishments -- maybe that's what she was told," he said. Axelrod did not say that Palin was entirely programmed by the McCain campaign.
The spot is accurate in saying the Obama campaign called Palin a liar. An Obama ad challenged her for taking credit for stopping Alaska's so-called Bridge to Nowhere, which she had originally supported, saying: "Politicians lying about their records?"
The indignation in the female narrator's voice suggests that the Obama camp is unfairly pillorying Palin, in no small measure because she is a woman. One irony is that, while earlier McCain ads depicted the senator from Illinois as "the world's biggest celebrity" -- trying to make a liability of the large and enthusiastic crowds Obama was drawing -- McCain now has a celebrity of his own on the ticket and is determined to protect her image.
Video of this ad can be found at www.washingtonpost.com/politics.
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September 13, 2008 Saturday
Regional Edition
A Privacy Shield Against the Campaigns
BYLINE: Shaun Dakin
SECTION: EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A17
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While John McCain and Barack Obama have plenty to fight about, there is at least one thing that they agree on: Voters who interact with their campaigns have no privacy rights.
What does this mean?
It's simple: Voters do not have the right to opt out of unwanted campaign communications, either online or off-line. Voters don't have the right to decide who will contact them or how they will be contacted by the presidential campaigns.
This invasion of the voters' privacy is bipartisan. Republicans do it. Democrats do it. Heck, even Libertarians do it.
This week, I received an e-mail from the Obama campaign that had the subject line: "Your Neighbors." Intrigued, I opened the message and learned that the campaign was launching a sophisticated program called "Neighbor-to-Neighbor" that makes "it easier than ever to connect with potential supporters in your community by phone or door-to-door." It continues: "Neighbor-to-Neighbor gives you the option to make phone calls or knock on doors -- the choice is yours."
The choice may be yours, but what about your neighbors, who may not want you to bother them at their homes?
This new program is both tech-cool and privacy-rights-scary. When I clicked through to myBarackObama.com, I was able to create "walk lists" using a Google map showing me exactly where potential Obama supporters near me live. The Web site provided the names, addresses and phone numbers of these targeted neighbors and offered a prompt for printing out the list. The last step? Log back in and record the results of your "door-to-door" conversations with voters.
I don't know about you, but I do not want my neighbors knocking on my door asking me whom I'm going to vote for. I certainly do not want my name, address and phone number printed on a Google map for the world to see. And, without a doubt, I do not want anyone calling me at home during dinner.
This is an invasion of privacy, because these voters never explicitly gave their permission to have themselves targeted in a database that invites their neighbors to walk "door to door" to try to persuade them to vote for a particular candidate.
When I tried to opt out of this tool, I learned that while I could opt out of campaign e-mail spam, there was no way that I could quickly, securely and comprehensively opt out of voter communications that I do not want to receive.
John McCain's Web site is much the same: It provides no mechanism for voters to opt out of unwanted communications other than e-mail.
What can be done?
As a spokesperson for millions of voters inundated by political campaigns, I have testified this year before the Senate Rules Committee in support of the Robocall Privacy Act. Our members report receiving as many as 15 robocalls a day during election season. Mothers have their babies awakened from naps. Night-shift workers who sleep during the day can't get the rest they need. Seniors and others fear that a health emergency could occur while their phone is tied up.
While commercial organizations are required by law to respect the privacy rights of consumers, politicians at the federal level and in all but a few states have exempted themselves from these laws. More than 160 million phone numbers have been placed on the National Do Not Call Registry, which requires commercial organizations to stop calling consumers within 30 days of those consumers listing their numbers. Political campaigns will call many of those 160 million numbers with impunity this fall. Why should commercial companies be required by law to stop invading the privacy of potential customers while politicians are allowed to do whatever they wish to reach potential voters?
To answer this question, candidates usually cite the First Amendment -- the right to speak freely as part of the our nation's vital democratic process. That might be a legitimate criticism of an outright ban but not of a system in which voters are given the choice to opt out of unwelcome communications.
Thus, the real reason for their personal exemptions is obvious: Politicians write the laws, and politicians like regulation only when it applies to someone else.
The time has come for a Voter Privacy Bill of Rights built on a single, straightforward principle: Voters should have the right to opt out of all direct political communications that they do not want to receive. Period.
The writer is chief executive and founder of Citizens for Civil Discourse, a nonprofit group that has launched the National Political Do Not Contact Registry at StopPoliticalCalls.org.
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September 13, 2008 Saturday
Suburban Edition
Obama Campaign Begins Counterattack
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 1291 words
DATELINE: CONCORD, N.H., Sept. 12
Sen. Barack Obama and his campaign launched a promised counterpunch against Sen. John McCain on Friday, portraying him as an aging, out-of-touch politician who would cater to "fat-cat" lobbyists and continue President Bush's economic policies.
With two new television advertisements, a campaign memo to supporters and a two-day trip through New Hampshire, Obama sought to regain his footing amid faltering poll numbers, a continuing assault by his Republican presidential rival and rising worries among Democrats about his campaign.
"They've been talking about lipstick and they've been talking about pigs and they've been talking about Paris and Britney," Obama told a boisterous crowd of 1,500 packed into a gym at a technical college here. "They will spend any amount of money and use any tactic out there in order to avoid talking about how we're going to move America forward to the future."
Attempting to shift the focus away from Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and to McCain, Obama quoted his opponent saying Thursday night that "it's easy for me to go to Washington and, frankly, be somewhat divorced from the day-to-day challenges people have."
"So from where he and George Bush sit, maybe they just can't see," the Democrat told supporters and some self-identified undecided voters earlier in the day in Dover. "Maybe they are just that out of touch. But you know the truth, and so do I. . . . We just can't afford four more years of what John McCain and George Bush consider progress."
If Democrats were expecting a dramatic change in words, tone or temperament, they did not get it. While McCain attacked him as a pampered, fading celebrity, a sexist and a desperate bully, Obama stuck to familiar themes linking the senator from Arizona to Bush and Washington lobbyists.
Even after being prodded by the audience in Dover, Obama appeared reluctant to get too aggressive. Glenn Grasso, 39, a doctoral student, pleaded: "When and how are you going to start fighting back?"
Obama responded by calling McCain's ads "just fabricated" and "just made up," an answer that spurred some to shout out: "Lies."
"Lies, that's the word," Obama said.
Not everyone was reassured. "Truth be told, I'm extremely worried" about Obama's dip in the polls and McCain's attacks, said Jaimee Rudman, 30.
Obama's use of McCain's words from a forum Thursday on volunteerism invited a biting response. McCain had suggested that he was out of touch as a way to defend Palin's record as a small-town mayor. But Obama also came to her defense at the forum, saying mayors fill potholes, trim trees and make sure the garbage is collected, while senators "yak."
"It's a shame that Barack Obama is using a discussion of service on September 11th as the basis for a distorted political attack. Especially when you consider that during the same event, Barack Obama reduced his own service in the U.S. Senate to mindless yakking," McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded in a statement.
The ads from the Obama campaign took different approaches: One attacked McCain directly, the other tried to reinforce Obama's message of change with the candidate talking to the camera.
The attack was direct, accusing McCain of being out of touch after 26 years in Washington. Using jaunty, humorous music, a picture of a younger McCain with shaggy hair and the hint of sideburns, and images of massive, antiquated cellphones and a Rubik's Cube, the ad is the clearest evocation yet of McCain's age. The Republican turned 72 late last month.
"He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send e-mail. Still doesn't understand the economy, and favors $200 billion in new tax cuts for corporations, but almost nothing for the middle class. . . . After one president who was out of touch," it concludes, "we just can't afford more of the same." The Obama campaign said the ad would be aired nationally on cable and on other outlets in swing states.
In a memo to supporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said: "In recent weeks, John McCain has shown that he is willing to go into the gutter to win this election. His campaign has become nothing but a series of smears, lies and cynical attempts to distract from the issues that matter to the American people."
Plouffe assured supporters that "we will respond with speed and ferocity to John McCain's attacks and we will take the fight to him, but we will do it on the big issues that matter to the American people."
Obama got something of an assist from the hosts of "The View," who challenged McCain on the integrity and honesty of his campaign. Joy Behar questioned two ads he is running against the Democrat -- one accusing him of supporting "comprehensive" sex education for kindergartners, the other saying he called Palin a pig when he used the saying "lipstick on a pig" in reference to McCain's claims to be an agent of change.
"We know that those two ads are untrue," Behar said. "They are lies."
When McCain defended them, Barbara Walters noted that McCain had made the same lipstick on a pig comment about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's health-care proposal.
"About health care," McCain said. Obama "chooses his words very carefully. He shouldn't have said it."
McCain has portrayed Palin as a reformer unwilling to accept pork from Washington, but Walters and Behar pressed. "She also took some earmarks," Walters said.
"No, not as governor she didn't," McCain responded, inaccurately.
The Obama campaign quickly produced newspaper articles about Palin seeking various earmarks as governor. In February, her office sent Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) a 70-page memo outlining almost $200 million worth of funding requests for her state.
The McCain campaign also kept up its attacks on Friday, releasing an ad titled "Disrespectful" [See Ad Watch, A8] that kept up its celebrity attack on Obama even as it continued to play the victim card with Palin. The spot says "they" dismissed her as "good looking," said she was just doing "what she was told" and called her a liar.
"He was the world's biggest celebrity, but his star is fading," the ad intones.
The independent FactCheck.org weighed in quickly, saying the ad -- already airing in Denver -- continues a pattern of distortion, taking quotes out of context and twisting meaning. "The new McCain-Palin ad . . . goes down new paths of deception," the Web site concluded.
On the stump, Obama focused on his tax plan, which offers sizable breaks to middle-income families, while raising taxes on families earning more than $250,000. He said McCain has been "simply dishonest" about that plan, asserting repeatedly that an Obama administration would raise everyone's taxes.
"I will make a firm pledge: I pledge under my plan, no one making less than $250,000 a year will see any type of tax increase, not income tax, not capital gains taxes, not any kind of taxes," Obama said.
And he slammed McCain's proposal to tax the value of employer-based health-care plans as income and use that to help finance tax credits to buy health insurance. The senator from Illinois called that "a $3.6 trillion tax increase" on working families.
Convinced that McCain's message on taxes is doing serious harm to Obama, Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell (D) sent a memo on Friday to every elected Democrat in his state to get the word out that Obama's plan would cut taxes for the middle class far more than McCain's would.
In an interview, Rendell said the Obama campaign is beginning to push back successfully on McCain's character attacks, but the Republican's charge that Obama would raise middle-class taxes may be more damaging. The McCain ads are "just despicable, but nowhere are they lying more clearly than on the tax issue," he said.
Staff writer Robert Barnes in Washington contributed to this report.
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Biden's Son Quits Lobbying
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Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s son Hunter has stopped working as a federal lobbyist, employment that had made him a Republican target in the presidential contest.
"I no longer expect to act as a federal lobbyist," Hunter Biden said in a letter to the clerk of the House and the Senate Office of Public Records. The letter is dated Aug. 25 and was made public yesterday.
Presidential candidate Barack Obama, who chose Biden as his running mate last month, has been a vocal critic of rival John McCain's ties to lobbyists. In a new television ad, Obama repeats criticisms of McCain for having current and former lobbyists on his campaign staff.
Obama has refused to accept contributions from federal lobbyists, though some have advised his campaign.
Hunter Biden and his lobbying firm, Oldaker, Biden & Belair, have represented colleges and hospitals, mainly in an effort to secure money for them in appropriation bills. His letter ending his lobbying work was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
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The New York Times
September 12, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Candidates Take Break, of Sorts, to Mark 7th Anniversary of the 9/11 Attacks
BYLINE: By PATRICK HEALY; Larry Rohter contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 18
LENGTH: 886 words
After days of sharp attacks against each other, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama suspended all political combat on Thursday, including television commercials, and instead made joint visits to ground zero and a forum on public service in New York to mark the seventh anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
At one point, Mr. McCain, who spoke first at the nighttime forum at Columbia University, defended his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, for recently making fun of Mr. Obama's work years ago as a community organizer. He said that Ms. Palin made her comment in reaction to Democratic attacks on her relative inexperience as a first-term governor and a former mayor of a small Alaskan town, Wasilla.
''Of course I respect community organizers, of course I respect people who serve their community, and Senator Obama's record there is outstanding,'' said Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, before adding, ''I think a small-town mayor has very great responsibilities.''
Mr. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in his appearance that while he deeply respected mayors, ''I was surprised by several remarks around community organizing, and belittling it.''
''It taught me,'' he said, ''that ordinary people can do extraordinary things, when they're given a chance and brought together. I want every young person to recognize that they will not fulfill their potential until they hitch their wagon to something bigger.''
Both candidates did agree on a politically divisive issue: They urged universities like Columbia to reverse Vietnam-era bans on Reserved Officers Training Corps activities. Some schools continue the bans in reaction to the military's policy on gays and lesbians -- a policy that Mr. Obama has pledged to lift and that Mr. McCain has said he would continue.
''Shouldn't the students here be exposed to the attractiveness of serving in the military, particularly as officers?'' said Mr. McCain, of Arizona, who attended the United States Naval Academy. ''I would hope that these universities would re-examine that policy.''
Asked if Columbia, his alma mater, should reinstate ROTC, Mr. Obama said: ''I think we've made a mistake on that. I recognize that there are students here who have differences in terms of military policy, but the notion that young people here at Columbia aren't offered a choice or an option in participating in military service is a mistake.''
Outside of the forum, on the steps of Low Memorial Library, students cheered loudly when Mr. McCain talked about Columbia's unwillingness to let ROTC on campus and then booed when he mentioned the option of serving as a military officer. When Mr. Obama proposed allowing ROTC back on campus, meanwhile, the students remained largely silent.
While Mr. Obama made no campaign appearances on Thursday, he did not entirely halt campaign-related activities: He shared a 90-minute lunch in Harlem with former President Bill Clinton, intended, in part, to soothe any ill will left from the bitter Democratic primary campaign between Mr. Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Advisers to the two men said afterward that the meeting was cordial and that Mr. Clinton urged Mr. Obama, of Illinois, to keep his political message focused on economic issues.
The meeting took place in Mr. Clinton's 14th-floor office on 125th Street, and they took a few questions from reporters. Mr. Clinton said he had agreed to do ''a substantial number of things'' on behalf of Mr. Obama this fall, and would hit the campaign trail as soon as his Global Initiative conference concluded on Sept. 26.
''We're putting him to work,'' Mr. Obama joked.
Asked for his opinion about the state of the presidential race, Mr. Clinton replied, ''I predict that Senator Obama will win and win handily.''
''There you go,'' Mr. Obama said. ''You can take it from the president of the United States. He knows a little something about politics.''
Yet the main event of the day was a moment when no words were exchanged: It was the image, rather, of Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain walking shoulder-to-shoulder down a long ramp at ground zero.
The two appeared somber throughout their 15 minutes together, chatting briefly on the ramp. At the bottom, they greeted a small receiving line of uniformed officers and relatives of victims. Each man also took a rose and placed the flower on a reflecting pool. They stood silent for a few moments, each clasping his own fingers.
At the end of their 15-minute public detente, Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama shook hands, and Mr. McCain could be heard saying, ''All right, sir, see you soon.''
The idea for the rivals to appear together at ground zero originated last week during a telephone conversation between the men. When Mr. Obama called Mr. McCain to congratulate him on accepting the presidential nomination, aides to both men said, Mr. Obama proposed the idea and Mr. McCain accepted.
The breather from minute-by-minute politicking comes after several days of intensifying tension and attacks between the McCain and Obama camps, in large part over Ms. Palin's leadership style and record. She is under scrutiny for her inconsistent positions on Congressional earmarks and her motives in dismissing the Alaska public safety commissioner, among other things.
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LOAD-DATE: September 12, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Senators John McCain and Barack Obama with Cindy McCain and Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg at the World Trade Center site on Thursday in New York. (PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHEN CROWLEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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September 12, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
A Message From John McCain
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; EDITORIAL; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 352 words
The most disheartening aspect of a scurrilous Republican ad falsely accusing Barack Obama of promoting sex education for kindergarten children is its closing line: ''I'm John McCain, and I approved this message.''
This from that straight-talker of yore, who fervidly denounced the 2004 Bush campaign's Swift Boat character attacks on John Kerry's military record.
What a difference four years makes, especially after Mr. McCain secured the nomination by hiring some of the same low-blow artists from the Bush campaign.
The kindergarten ad flat-out lies: telling voters that Mr. Obama's ''one accomplishment'' in education was to favor ''comprehensive'' sex education for 5-year-olds. ''Learning about sex before learning to read?'' intones the voice-over, as a blur of respected sources are cited -- none of them accurately, as they have proclaimed.
The truth is that as an Illinois legislator, Mr. Obama favored a sensible bill supported by many mainline organizations -- including the Illinois Parent Teacher Association, the Illinois State Medical Society and the Illinois Public Health Association -- to provide an ''age and developmentally appropriate'' sex education curriculum for older students. At most, kindergarteners were to be taught the dangers of sexual predators. And parents of children of all ages had the right to withdraw their children from the classes.
Surely, Senator McCain knows that all that change he's promising for the tooth-and-claw Washington culture must start on the hustings. Yet, the kindergarten ad that he's blessed signals that his goal is shamefully more of the same.
The way these ads work, this one is already playing over and over on the Web as a free-media ''ghost,'' in professional parlance -- too late for any cynical expression of regret by Mr. McCain. And no regret has been offered.
The lesson for voters is to be wary of all ads from the McCain machine. The lesson for Mr. McCain is that if he really believes in straight talk, he should fire his ad writers and any aide who believes that the best way to win the presidency is to lie to American voters.
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The New York Times
September 12, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Health Care Issue, Not Quite Hot, Remains Strong
BYLINE: By KEVIN SACK
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 1196 words
DATELINE: ROSWELL, Ga.
When Representative Tom Price spoke to the Roswell Kiwanians the other day, the first three questions concerned health care. When he appeared four days later before the Sandy Springs Rotarians, no one asked about it at all.
As energy and the economy consume more of the country's political discourse, health care is an issue that can seem to vacillate in importance by the day, the place and the audience.
It remains a significant presence in virtually every Congressional district, including this well-heeled Atlanta suburb represented by Mr. Price, a second-term Republican. In some contests, particularly those where Democrats smell blood, it has been placed front and center. But in others it has become less distinct, absorbed by the electorate's broader anxiety over the economy and displaced by the urgency of high-cost gasoline and the housing crisis.
''Energy has kind of taken the wind out of -- no pun intended -- all sorts of other things,'' Mr. Price said, campaigning in his district, which was once represented by Newt Gingrich. ''But health care is still in the top three issues, and it is for every single demographic group.''
With Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on the sidelines, health care is also receiving somewhat less emphasis in the presidential race, although each campaign is busy stoking fears about the other's proposals.
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, is arguing that Senator John McCain's plan to end the tax bias against those who buy insurance individually, and to replace it with health care tax credits for all, would increase costs for many consumers and leave others underinsured.
Mr. McCain, the Republican nominee, is charging that Mr. Obama's proposal, which would allow the privately insured to maintain their coverage while creating a heavily subsidized government plan for the uninsured, would ''force families into a government-run health care system.''
Advocacy groups, meanwhile, are spending tens of millions of dollars on advertising to keep the issue at the forefront of the 2009 Congressional agenda. And working groups, both inside and outside Congress, are meeting to search for points of bipartisan agreement that might produce at least incremental change.
Polls show not that concern about health care has faded significantly, only that the foreboding about energy and the economy has blitzed past it. Some analysts of health care politics argue that because Democrats are more associated with the issue, any de-emphasis may help Republicans. They warn, however, that candidates ignore health care at their own peril.
''It's generally more helpful to Democrats than to Republicans, so when health care is subsumed into the economy it may not have as much of an edge,'' said Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA, one of the advocacy groups behind the new ''Harry and Louise'' television commercials about the plight of the uninsured. ''But in terms of what people want to hear candidates talk about, they certainly want to hear something about health care.''
That message is not lost on Mr. Price, one of 13 medical doctors in Congress. An orthopedic surgeon, the son and grandson of physicians, he speaks regularly about health care on the stump, saying it is ''broken beyond repair by nibbling at the sides.'' He has polled voters on the issue and mailed out fliers explaining his positions.
As a Republican and a physician, Mr. Price says, it distresses him that his party has allowed health care to be defined as a Democratic issue. (In an August poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 58 percent of those questioned said Mr. Obama was the presidential candidate more likely to make health care a priority, compared with 20 percent for Mr. McCain.)
''People believe Republicans don't have a health care gene because many Republicans don't talk about it with any frequency,'' said Mr. Price, who is heavily favored to defeat his Democratic opponent, Bill Jones. ''I think, however, that it is a Republican issue, because the solution embraces our conservative principles, the imperative of individuals and their families being able to make decisions. Nobody truly believes the government can solve this, save Democrat politicians.''
To prompt debate, Mr. Price has introduced legislation to allow individuals to buy insurance with pretax dollars, as is currently the case for those who purchase employer-sponsored plans. (Mr. McCain would achieve the same equity in the opposite way, by ending the exclusion from income taxes for employer plans.)
To promote universal coverage, the Price plan would also provide tax deductions and credits to all who cannot afford insurance, a proposition whose price tag to the government is unknown but certain to be expensive. And he would allow individuals to select from an array of plans rather than permitting employers to limit their choices.
The McCain plan, Mr. Price said, ''is a step in the right direction.'' But he said Mr. McCain's proposed tax credits of $2,500 an individual and $5,000 a family would not be enough to make insurance affordable for everyone who needs help.
If Mr. Price seems proactive on health care, it is at least partly because he, like other Republicans, starts from a defensive stance. His opponent, Mr. Jones, plans to make a major issue of Mr. Price's votes last year against a Democratic proposal to expand vastly the eligibility for the Children's Health Insurance Program. President Bush twice vetoed the expansion, and Mr. Price and other Republicans helped him sustain the vetoes.
The congressman has worked to explain those votes. ''People in my district,'' he said, ''understand that the last thing we need to be doing is moving folks from private health insurance to public health insurance, which is exactly what that bill did.''
But Mr. Jones, a former commercial pilot and Air Force veteran, said his indignation over those votes had driven him to challenge Mr. Price. ''He wraps himself in his white coat while arguing why we can't expand our health care system,'' Mr. Jones said.
When provided openings, other Democrats have attacked what they see as a Republican soft spot. In the open race in Illinois's 11th District, for instance, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has distributed two mailings calling attention to the claim by the Republican candidate, Marty Ozinga, that health care is available to all Americans. ''I don't care who you are, if you're sick or you get hurt, you go to the hospital and you get taken care of,'' Mr. Ozinga was quoted as saying on a local cable television program.
Representative Chris Van Hollen, the Maryland Democrat who heads the campaign committee, said Mr. Ozinga's opponent, State Senator Debbie Halvorson, ''is going to zero in on this like a laser beam.''
All Democratic candidates, Mr. Van Hollen said, will try to invigorate the debate over health care by emphasizing its part in the country's economic travails.
''While there continues to be a moral issue of ensuring that our people have access to basic health care,'' he said, ''it's also a family budget issue and an economic issue in an era of global competition.''
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LOAD-DATE: September 12, 2008
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GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Representative Tom Price says that while gasoline prices may have taken center stage, health care is still a potent campaign topic. (PHOTOGRAPH BY ERIK S. LESSER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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September 12, 2008 Friday
Late Edition - Final
Inside The Times September 12th, 2008
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 2330 words
INTERNATIONAL
PUZZLED-SOUNDING PUTIN
Defends Georgia Invasion
Vladimir V. Putin spent more than three hours before a collection of Russia experts from around the world, trying to make the case for Russia's having sent columns of armor into Georgia. In tones that were alternately pugilistic and needy, he expressed only bafflement that those in the West did not accept Russia's explanation that it had simply acted in defense of its citizens. PAGE A6
INDICATION OF A COVER-UP
A secretly recorded conversation played in a Miami courtroom indicated that members of Argentina's government may have participated in a cover-up with the government of President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela to hide the fact that $800,000 seized at a Buenos Aires airport was intended as a secret campaign contribution to Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who was elected president of Argentina two months later. PAGE A14
FIGHTING DEMOCRACY IN THAILAND
The thousands of protesters on the grounds on the prime minister's office in Bangkok may look like the kind of pro-democracy uprising that has toppled dictators from the Philippines to Serbia. But the new order they propose would replace an elected Parliament with one that is mostly appointed, keeping power in the hands of the country's royalist, bureaucratic, military elite. PAGE A12
THE DAY THE BOMBS FELL
Residents of Palomares, Spain, would like to forget the day more than 42 years ago when a United States bomber exploded during airborne refueling and dropped three of its hydrogen bombs around the poor farming village. But it is hard to forget when radioactive snails turn up and fresh tracts of land are confiscated for additional testing and cleanup. PAGE A13
JAPAN NEGOTIATES IRAQ WITHDRAWAL
Japan said that it wanted to withdraw its remaining military personnel from Iraq by year's end, wrapping up an overseas mission that has pleased Washington but divided Japan. Defense Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said that the country was negotiating a withdrawal of its small military airlift mission because of the improved security situation in Iraq and that his country wanted to shift its priority to Afghanistan. PAGE A10
PRAISE FOR NEW PAKISTAN LEADER
President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan said that he had found a better working environment in Pakistan with the election of the new president, Asif Ali Zardari, above, welcoming what he described as the ''serious and fundamental change'' in Pakistan's attitude. Mr. Karzai had an often testy relationship with Mr. Zardari's predecessor, Pervez Musharraf. PAGE A10
Russia Warns Poland on Pact A10
National
STUDY ON SPREAD OF H.I.V. FINDS BLACKS AT HIGHEST RISK
An unusually detailed study of people newly infected with H.I.V. in the United States has confirmed that the majority of new cases occur among gay and bisexual men and that blacks are most at risk. But the data show that whites and blacks tend to be infected at different times in their lives with the virus that causes AIDS. PAGE A17
MONTANA GOVERNOR SPARKS STORM
A political dust-up has blown up in Montana over a speech by Gov. Brian Schweitzer, above, from earlier this summer, archived and recently recovered on the Internet, in which he said he had exerted influence to swing the 2006 Senate race in favor of Jon Tester, a Democrat whose narrow victory swung majority control of the United States Senate to the Democrats. Mr. Schweitzer, a Democrat, now says the stories in the speech were entirely made up. PAGE A15
HEALTH CARE CEDES POLITICAL STAGE
As energy and the economy consume more of the country's political discourse, health care is an issue that can seem to vacillate in importance by the day, the place and the audience. In some Congessional contests it has been placed front and center. But in others it has become absorbed by the electorate's broader anxiety. PAGE A20
BIDEN ON THE TRAIL, GAFFES IN TOW
On the campaign trail with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, a day without a cringe-inducing gaffe is a rare blessing. He has not been too blessed lately. Just this week, Mr. Biden mused that the Democrats' nominee for president, Senator Barack Obama, might have been better off with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate. PAGE A18
The Hockey Life in Wasilla A15 Obituaries
GREGORY MCDONALD
An Edgar Award-winning crime writer whose acidly funny novels starring the subversive sleuth I. M. Fletcher, breezily known as Fletch, have sold millions of copies and inspired two Hollywood films, he was 71. PAGE A21
MARTIN TYTELL
Perhaps the greatest of typewriter repairmen, he was a boon to American spies during World War II, the defense lawyers for Alger Hiss, writers like Dorothy Parker, newsmen like David Brinkley and thousands of everyday scriveners who needed him to keep their typewriters (not to mention their computer-resistant pride) intact. He was 94. PAGE A21
SPORTS
DRAMATIC VICTORIES FUEL
Tampa Bay's Playoff Drive
The Tampa Bay Rays arrive in Yankeeland having taken two of three games against the Boston Red Sox in rather dramatic fashion. They got only two hits in 36 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the series. One was a three-run home run to win the finale. The other was a double to drive in the decisive run on Tuesday. ''We're in a good place right now,'' Manager Joe Maddon said. PAGE D5
HIS FATHER'S SON
Chicago Bears fullback Jason McKie's father, Nevil, was a military man, a lifer, the kind of guy who retired from the Air Force after 21 years and 3 months of service. When it came time last year for McKie to choose a focus for philanthropic works, his father told him, ''Think about what you're close to.'' He did. The Jason McKie Foundation helps the families of soldiers. PAGE D32
METRO
JUDGE THROWS OUT CHARGES
From Steroids Investigation
A judge threw out criminal indictments against the central figures in a wide-ranging national steroids investigation, citing a series of blunders and missteps by prosecutors for the Albany County district attorney, P. David Soares. If upheld, the decision could unravel other elements of Mr. Soares's criminal investigation, which has spanned at least four states and so far resulted in 17 guilty pleas. PAGE B1
AFGHAN INTRIGUE IN A COURTROOM
The trial of Haji Bashir Noorzai, an Afghan man charged with running an international drug ring, is not unusual in having produced widely contrasting portraits of Mr. Noorzai's intent and motives. But the case has an extraordinary degree of intrigue about it because it has brought into a New York City courtroom the chaos of Afghanistan and the grip of its narcotics trade, and the looming figure of Mullah Mohammad Omar, one of the most wanted men in the world. PAGE B5
BUSH DEDICATES MEMORIAL
For President Bush, the seventh anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks brought to mind a very specific number: 2,557, the number of days, as of Thursday, that have passed without another attack on American soil. Mr. Bush invoked that figure during a ceremony at the Pentagon, where he presided over the dedication of a memorial to honor the 184 men, women and children who died when a hijacked plane crashed into it. PAGE B2
BUSINESS
WEATHER AGAIN INTERRUPTS
Falling Gasoline Prices
Hurricane Ike has forced thousands to fill up their car's gas tank and evacuate inland, draining many gas stations of their supplies completely. The storm has also forced oil companies to shut down major production and refining facilities in Texas, the second storm in two weeks to do so, forcing up gasoline prices even as the price of oil continued to decline on international markets. PAGE C1
CHINA PRESSES FOR UNIONS
China is putting pressure onsome of the world's biggest corporations to allow state-approved unions to form in their Chinese plants and offices, a move that seems to be part of an effort to address some of the ugly consequences of China's dynamic economic growth. But many companies fear that allowing the unions will significantly increase the cost of doing business there. PAGE C1
A.I.G. CONTINUES DECLINE
With investors looking at Lehman Brothers and worried that A.I.G. may be another collateral victim, A.I.G. shares closed down again, and are now nearly 50 percent off their value when the company's new chief executive, Robert B. Willumstad, took over in June. But a spokesman said the company would not let the market pressure it into speeding up the publication of the new business plan, scheduled for Sept. 25. PAGE C1
SHORTCHANGING UNCLE SAM
Downside: Monitoring by an arm of the Internal Revenue Service found that almost two out of three independent tax preparers -- the most numerous category -- failed to fill out accurate returns for their clients. Potential upside: Of those inaccurate returns, most were in the clients' favor. More downside: About one-third left clients paying too much. PAGE C4
DEUTSCHE BANK WANTS POSTBANK
Deutsche Bank is poised to announce on Friday that it will buy a controlling stake in Postbank, a relatively modest but profitable German institution. Postbank's falling share price in the last month helped tip the balance in favor of an acquisition, analysts said, outweighing concerns that its less-affluent client base would make for an uneasy fit with Deutsche Bank's own retail operations in Germany. PAGE C4
JULY IMPORTS OUTPACE EXPORTS
The trade deficit reached a 16-month high in July despite a 3.3 percent increase in exports from June. Demand rose for motor vehicles, consumer goods and industrial products. Imports were up 3.9 percent for the month, largely because of the surging cost of foreign petroleum and oil-derived products. A separate report said that prices of non-petroleum imports dipped slightly last month, an encouraging sign that inflation may have slowed. PAGE C4
I.R.S. Urged to Stop Tax Schemes C4
Weekend
FINDING ART ON AND IN THE ASPHALT
But Not a Spray Can to Be Found
Street life conjures up a barrage of imagery. Graffiti, loud music, laughter, love and violence. The art of the streets often matches this explosion. ''Street Art Street Life,'' opening at the Bronx Museum of the Arts, is an exhibition of mostly black and white photographs, with some video installations, of city dwellers wearing their lives on their streets, writes Holland Cotter. Page E27
N.E.A. CHAIRMAN TO STEP DOWN
When Dana Gioia was appointed president of the National Endowment for the Arts, he was ascending to a snarled mass. Infighting and politics had earned the organization a slashed budget and an uncertain future. Now that the agency has recovered somewhat, Mr. Gioia has decided to step down to focus on his own writing. Page E3
LETTING OUT YOUR INNER CLOWN
Clowning may be the new source of solace for the troubled. Not the clowning of big red shoes, but that of physical clowns like Charlie Chaplin or Lucille Ball. Workshops, classes at major universities and a general influx of instructors to America display a trend. Leaving only the question: How do you teach people to be funny? Page E5
BLACK IN AMERICA, VIBRANT IN PAINT
Aaron Douglas, muralist and painter, offers his vision of being African-American in 1920 America in ''Aaron Douglas: African-American Modernist,'' an exhibition at the Schomburg Center for Research in Black Culture. Bringing an Afro-centric image, overlaid with a heroic, triumphant flavor, his works, such as a self-portrait, above, feature concentric bands of light, writes Ken Johnson. Page E29
ESCAPES
CRUISING THE ROADS
Of Carolina's Lake Country
It runs along the southern edge of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, but the lakes country -- west of Asheville, N.C., and south of Knoxville, Tenn. -- is free of Appalachia's standard roadside attractions and souvenir clutter. What it does have is fishing and hiking and mountain-biking and five dam-created reservoirs that some have called the Finger Lakes of the South. PAGE F1
LOW-TECH GETAWAYS
A weekend home away from the distractions of the 21st century requires not only skipping the cable or satellite TV access, Internet, cellphone or BlackBerry. Going low-tech calls for even less: no electric can opener, no microwave (except under certain extenuating circumstances) no dishwasher. Relax. It can be done. PAGE F2
Havens: Naples, Me. F3
'The Cape Cod of the Midwest' F4
Editorial
ANYTHING GOES, APPARENTLY
Two years ago, Inspector General Earl Devaney said: ''Short of a crime, anything goes at the Department of the Interior.'' It now appears that crime could be part of the mix. PAGE A22
HELP FOR CUBA AND HAITI
The devastating string of hurricanes that rushed through the Caribbean in the last month has left a scale of devastation that calls for an extraordinary assistance effort. So far, it is not happening. PAGE A22
A MESSAGE FROM JOHN MCCAIN
The most disheartening aspect of a scurrilous Republican ad falsely accusing Barack Obama of promoting sex education for kindergarten children is its closing line: ''I'm John McCain, and I approved this message.'' PAGE A22
Op-Ed
DAVID BROOKS
Goldwater's vision was highly individualistic and celebrated a certain sort of person -- the stout pioneer crossing the West, the risk-taking entrepreneur with a vision, the stalwart hero fighting the collectivist foe. The problem is, this individualist description of human nature seems to be wrong, and it is the main impediment to Republican modernization. PAGE A23
THE ORIGINS OF THE UNIVERSE
In an Op-Ed article, Brian Greene, a professor of physics and mathematics at Columbia, explains how the Large Hadron Collider, which was turned on this week in a lab where many of the scientists wore pajamas, above, could help unlock the secrets of the universe and its origins. He also explains why the much-discussed risks of the collider creating a black hole that will devour the Earth are wildly overblown. PAGE A23
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: September 12, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Summary
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
469 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The New York Times
September 12, 2008 Friday
Correction Appended
Late Edition - Final
On the Web, a Nonpartisan Look at Those Partisan Campaign Ads
BYLINE: By ALESSANDRA STANLEY
SECTION: Section E; Column 0; Movies, Performing Arts/Weekend Desk; TELEVISION; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 972 words
It's sometimes hard to remember those early lofty campaign spots for Senator John McCain that put him on a par with Winston Churchill. Nowadays the gathering storm has turned into a gathers-no-moss effort to paint Senator Barack Obama as an ill-mannered sexist who favors sex education for kindergarten children and sends packs of Democratic wolves to gnaw on Gov. Sarah Palin's reputation.
Mr. Obama's pitch has devolved just as drastically. He went from gauzy testimonials to his patriotism and Midwestern values to painting Mr. McCain as a lame-brained George W. Bush clone in ads that rework Sam Cooke's ''Wonderful World'' to belittle his rival. (''I'm not up on the economy/Don't know much about industry.'')
The campaigns spent months and many millions of dollars to produce scores of television spots and Web ads that jumble together in a kaleidoscope of cropped sound bites and long, accusatory freeze frames. The political discourse is so overrun with negative ads and charges of guilt by association that voters can be forgiven for confusing which candidate is supposedly akin to Britney Spears and which one seems too close to President Bush, or who smeared whom with lipstick slurs.
And all that 30-second clatter and confusion is what makes the Living Room Candidate so useful at this particular moment in the presidential campaign. The Web site (livingroomcandidate.org), which was created in 2000 by the Museum of the Moving Image in Astoria, Queens, returns every presidential election cycle with an ever larger collection of political ads dating from 1952 to the present. The 2008 edition, which is scheduled to go online on Friday, allows voters to scan the latest ads, local, national and Web-only, while dipping into the dim electoral past.
It catalogs ads by years, and also by issue (''change'' is big this time around). It also offers instant reality checks: there is a link to Factcheck.org, a nonpartisan watchdog site, which checked the facts on one of the latest McCain attack ads, called ''Fact Check,'' which uses, and apparently misuses, Factcheck.org quotations. (''The ad strives to convey the message that FactCheck.org said 'completely false' attacks on Gov. Sarah Palin had come from Senator Barack Obama,'' Factcheck.org demurred. ''We said no such thing. We have yet to dispute any claim from the Obama campaign about Palin.'')
Viewers can study those ads for themselves; they can also examine Mr. Obama's attack ad tailored for Ohio, which accuses Mr. McCain of having ''helped pave the way'' for the foreign-owned shipping company DHL to drive out an American company, as well as the anti-Obama spots by a conservative organization that accuse the Illinois senator of having ties to William Ayers, a former '60s radical who helped found the Weather Underground.
Negative ads that melt all degrees of separation seem like an innovation that began with the Willie Hortonization of Michael S. Dukakis in 1988. But that tactic reaches back to 1952, when an ad for Adlai Stevenson warned that Dwight D. Eisenhower would be in the foreign-policy thrall of Senator Robert A. Taft, an isolationist Republican from Ohio: the point is made by two cartoon hearts speared together and a mocking jingle that suggests that ''Ike'' is forever entwined with ''Bob.''
There are some lost arts, however, notably political jingles. Popular music is mostly used sarcastically nowadays, but there was a time when it was used to pep up voters. Even in the cool, stylish age of ''Mad Men,'' John F. Kennedy ran a 1960 ad with music that sounded like the theme of a wacky early-'60s sitcom: ''Do you want a man for president who's seasoned through and through/But not so doggoned seasoned that he won't try something new?''
The Living Room Candidate might seem obsolete in the age of YouTube and campaign sites that post every speech and advertising message. But it's more valuable now than ever, serving as both clearinghouse and curator. It provides voters with historical context and full disclosure: it distinguishes ads that are created by the candidate's official team from proxy attacks paid for by nonprofit but highly partisan political organizations -- a technique now known by the 2004 term ''Swiftboating.'' In this cycle, however, the campaigns have proved less squeamish than ever before and are perfectly happy to level the silliest charges in their own names.
This election's model is updated for the iTunes epoch as well. There are playlists, favorite ads by commentators who add their expertise or personal opinions to the mix. John Dickerson, a political correspondent for Slate, states that ''our presidential ads today are less tough and less fair,'' and includes on his playlist a 1964 ad by Barry Goldwater that cross-cuts American schoolchildren reciting the Pledge of Allegiance before the classroom flag with the Soviet leader Nikita S. Khrushchev saying, ''We will bury you,'' in a 1956 speech to Westerners. (Though even then, Mr. Khrushchev complained that his threat was taken out of context.)
In an election in which warring blogs, talk radio and 24-hour cable news opinionators blur the news, the Living Room Candidate is a state-of-the-art site that provides an old-fashioned, impartial and lingering look at the most partisan and quicksilver weapon in politics.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
LOAD-DATE: September 16, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
CORRECTION-DATE: September 15, 2008
CORRECTION: A television column on Friday discussed a Web site, created by a museum in Astoria, Queens, that shows televised presidential campaign advertisements from 1952 to the present. While the column and an accompanying capsule summary about coverage at nytimes.com/tv correctly cited the name of the museum at the time it created the site in 2000 -- the American Museum of the Moving Image -- it has since changed its name to the Museum of the Moving Image.
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: A 1972 Nixon ad claimed that George McGovern would decimate the military.(PHOTOGRAPH BY MUSEUM OF THE MOVING IMAGE)
From the Living Room Candidate Web site: top, from left, Barack Obama in a John McCain spot
a Democratic portrayal of Mr. McCain. Bottom, from left, Bill Clinton meeting John F. Kennedy
the ''Willie Horton'' attack on Michael S. Dukakis.(PHOTOGRAPHS FROM THE MUSEUM OF THE MOVING IMAGE)(pg. E21)
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
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470 of 972 DOCUMENTS
The Washington Post
September 12, 2008 Friday
Suburban Edition
Candidates Promise National-Service Initiatives
BYLINE: Michael D. Shear and Jonathan Weisman; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A03
LENGTH: 1273 words
DATELINE: NEW YORK, Sept. 11
Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain pledged to inspire a new commitment to public service Thursday, as they set aside the rancor of an intense presidential campaign during a two-hour forum on the seventh anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
"The best way to commemorate, and the best way to show our appreciation for and our love and sympathy for the families of those who have sacrificed, is to serve our country," McCain said.
The question, Obama said later, is how to recreate the spirit of service "not just during times of tragedy, not just during 9/11, but how do we honor those who died, those who sacrificed . . . how do we honor them every day?"
In back-to-back conversations largely devoid of partisan recrimination, McCain (R-Ariz.) and Obama (D-Ill.) each urged Americans to honor the victims of the country's worst terrorist attack by dedicating their time to service through teaching, the military, the Peace Corps and faith-based volunteering.
But the reality of Campaign 2008 -- a contest that has turned particularly ugly in recent days -- was never far from the surface as both men were challenged by the questioners to explain the often angry tone of their competition for the White House.
McCain acknowledged the "rough" nature of the campaign and praised Obama's service as a community organizer -- something his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, had mocked during her speech to the Republican national convention.
McCain defended Palin, saying she had been responding to a barrage of criticism of her own experience as a small-town mayor. But he appeared to chide his supporters who derided Obama's efforts as a young man.
"Of course I respect community organizers. Of course I respect people who serve their community," he said.
Obama did not disparage Palin's service as mayor of Wasilla, praising small-town mayors and noting the presence of many at the Democratic National Convention in Denver last month. "We yak in the Senate. They actually have to fill potholes, trim trees and make sure the garbage is collected," Obama said.
He expressed only "surprise" at Palin's decision to belittle his work as a community organizer, displaying no anger and keeping the sometimes subdued tone that some Democrats have argued he must shed if he is to rally Democrats and appeal to voters waiting for him to display his passion.
Obama called McCain's service in the military "legendary," adding that "one of the wonderful things about this campaign is his ability to share that story."
Some of the more lighthearted moments of the evening came when each man was asked if he would create a Cabinet-level position on public service -- and then appoint the other to it.
McCain chuckled and said yes before adding that he believes there are too many Cabinet secretaries already.
Obama laughed and said, "If this is the deal he wants to make right now, I'm committed to appointing him." Asked whether he would serve in McCain's Cabinet, Obama said, "We've got a little work to do before we get to that."
McCain also drew laughter when he was asked about encouraging older Americans to participate in public service. They are "living longer and they're more vigorous," he said. "I'm here to tell you that's a fact."
The 72-year-old candidate then cocked his head and pretended to fall asleep for a moment, letting out a "Zzz."
While the tone of the event was civil, McCain and Obama did outline differing roles for the federal government in fostering volunteerism.
McCain stressed that the government should not compel service, argued the private sector should take a larger role in disaster relief and said he hoped private companies would allow their employees to volunteer in the community. He declined to put a price tag on his service initiative.
"When you compel someone to do something, you basically are in contradiction to the basic principle of people wanting to serve," he said, adding later that he would sign a bipartisan Senate bill that would expand government support of service programs.
Obama, who has proposed a $3.5 billion service program, emphasized his belief that government and the private sector could work together to augment each other's efforts.
The solution, he said, is to offer people more ways to volunteer, and he said the government needs to do more to encourage that. "The government is going to have a role," he said.
"My sense is the country yearns for that," Obama said. "It's hungry for it. What has been missing is a president in the White House that taps into that yearning in a serious way. . . . The choices we offer young people today are too constraining."
Each made a bit of news in the forums.
McCain pledged to sign a bipartisan bill on national service that is being introduced Friday, prompting applause from the audience in Columbia University's Roone Arledge Auditorium at Lerner Hall.
Obama said he thought it was wrong for Columbia -- his alma mater -- and other colleges to turn away the Reserve Officers' Training Corps because of differences some students have on military policy.
"I think we've made a mistake on that," he said. "We should have an honest debate while still having opportunities to serve."
Last month, Jay Winuk, a co-founder of MyGoodDeed.org and the brother of a Sept. 11 victim, wrote to both campaigns, asking them to set aside campaigning to participate in the event.
Winuk's younger brother Glenn was a partner at the law firm Holland and Knight and a volunteer firefighter in Jericho, Long Island, who died after rushing into the World Trade Center to provide assistance on 9/11.
Earlier in the day, the presidential rivals made a joint appearance at Ground Zero to honor the victims of the terrorist attacks. They chatted as they walked side by side down a long ramp to the site, where they talked with family members of 9/11 victims as well as first responders before laying roses in the reflecting pool commemorating the attacks.
Both men had promised to take a break from politics for a day, suspending all television commercials and other campaign activities. A day after a barrage of attack e-mails from both sides poured into reporters' inboxes, there were none from McCain, Obama or their respective political parties.
"Today, we honor the memory of the lives that were lost on September 11, 2001, and grieve with the families and friends who lost someone they loved in New York City, at the Pentagon, and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. We will never forget those who died," a statement from Obama read.
In the morning, McCain paid a somber visit to the field where United Flight 93 crashed, marking the moment that passengers overwhelmed terrorists onboard the ill-fated airliner.
The evening forum, in which both men took questions for roughly an hour from Time magazine's managing editor, Richard Stengel, and PBS "NewsHour" senior correspondent and political editor Judy Woodruff, was organized by ServiceNation, a group dedicated to increasing service by Americans, and hosted by Time and CNN. McCain went first, and Obama was allowed to listen, organizers said, because they would not be asked identical questions.
While Obama and McCain put aside their attacks, the Illinois Democrat continued his rapprochement with former president Bill Clinton with a long, private get-together in Harlem. Over sandwiches and pizza, the two chitchatted about Clinton's commute from suburban Chappaqua, the work of the former president's international charitable organization and the presidential campaign.
"I've agreed to do a substantial number of things" for Obama, Clinton told a small pool of reporters. "Whatever I'm asked to do."
"We're putting him to work," Obama chimed in.
LOAD-DATE: September 12, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Melina Mara -- The Washington Post; Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama, who have fought fiercely of late, looked more like allies at the ServiceNation forum.
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper
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Washingtonpost.com
September 12, 2008 Friday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Chris Cillizza, Washingtonpost.com Political Blogger, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3053 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Chris Cillizza, washingtonpost.com political blogger, was online Friday, Sept. 12 at 11 a.m. ET to take your questions about the latest political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
____________________
Chris Cillizza: Good Friday morning. I'm sequestered in the official Fix coffee shop -- Buzz on Slaters Lane -- for this chat.
Lots going on this morning already. I just finished a Fix post on whether Barack Obama's new aggressive tone toward John McCain on the economy will work, and we've got Sarah Palin's three-part interview with ABC' Charlie Gibson coming out in drips and drabs throughout today.
Did I mention there are ads and polls out this week in nearly every competitive Senate race?
Man. What a time to be a political junkie.
Let's get to it.
_______________________
San Diego: Chris, the Republicans won the news cycle this week, hands down. What advice would you have for Obama to win next week?
Chris Cillizza: Up early in San Diego! I like it.
Far be it from me to give advice to the Obama campaign but here it goes:
Find a way to change the narrative. Right now the meta-story is how Sarah Palin has changed the face of American politics. The micro-story is a day-by-day picking-apart of Obama's readiness to lead. Neither of those are good story lines for the Democratic ticket.
The roll out this morning by the Obama campaign of a strategy designed to refocus the race on the economy and their belief that McCain is out of touch on this central issue is a smart move. Obama -- and Democrats generally -- are on their strongest footing when talking about the economy and health care, domestic issues where voters have tired of Republican policies and are ready for a change.
The more time Obama spends responding to McCain attacks (lipstick on a pig) or talking about national security, the less of a chance he has to win.
_______________________
St. Louis: Since you're so "in the know," I was wondering if you've heard from Republicans -- off the record, of course -- that they're surprised by McCain's campaign. His traditionally Republican campaign is smart -- they win -- but it also seems so out of character for the old McCain we knew in 2000. What are Republican insiders thoughts on this change?
Chris Cillizza: Hmm, was that "in the know" comment a shot at me? If so, well played.
Onto the question...
Republicans always -- or at least for as long as the Fix memory lasts -- have adopted a realpolitik approach to political campaigns. That is, they use tactics that work -- whether or not they are "fair."
Republicans are, typically, far less concerned about the approval of newspaper editorial boards and the so-called "Eastern media elite" than their Democratic counterparts, a fact that allows them almost total freedom when it comes to how they conduct their campaigns.
Democrats, on the other hand, always promise to play as down-and-dirty as Republicans, but when the rubber hits the road they tend to back off somewhat. The one Democratic politician in recent memory who didn't follow that blueprint was Bill Clinton; it's no accident he is the last Democrat to win the White House.
In the frame of campaign politics, "fair" doesn't really matter. Effective and persuasive do. I don't condone this but state it merely as fact.
The jury remains out on how the Obama campaign will approach the final seven weeks of the campaign.
_______________________
Obama Responses: I hate to say this, but it looks to me like Hillary was right -- Obama didn't appreciate how hard the Republicans would go after him and was not as "steeled" as she was to handle this.
Chris Cillizza: This line of thinking has percolated up -- see stories in Bloomberg, Los Angeles Times and Politico -- in recent days.
I'm not sure it's right. Obama has shown a pretty strong backbone in this campaign to date. There is still lots of time left in this race.
_______________________
Falls Church, Va.: Hola Chris. With all the polls coming out on a daily basis how should they be interpreted? Who are the people that are asked to answer these polls? What about the youth vote and first-time registered voters -- are they on the pollsters' call list?. And one more thing: Can The Washington Post have a Q&A with a pollster who can explain objectively what these polls mean?
washingtonpost.com: We've had a few discussions with The Post's Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta, Falls Church ( one, two, three) but will look at lining up another.
Chris Cillizza: Great question, and as our moderator has already noted, the Post's polling unit -- Jon "Can Do" Cohen and Jenn "The Analyst" Agiesta -- have done several online chats and I am sure will do a bunch more between now and November.
My general attitude on polling: Don't take any one survey -- even one as good as the Post/ABC poll -- as the Truth.
Instead, average a series of polls and take that number as roughly right.
I've seen a series of polls lately that show McCain up a few on Obama and several others that have Obama ahead. My guess is that on a national level the race is basically a dead heat.
As I laid out in my battleground states Line this morning on The Fix, Obama still has a slight edge in the state by state analysis.
_______________________
Aldie, Va.: Okay, Obama's gotta move on to the issues and away from Palin, but that's gonna be tough with the ABC interview in three parts -- neat strategy by McCain's campaign, because regardless of what she says, the focus will be squarely on her...
Chris Cillizza: Aldie, I agree. The McCain did a few very smart things with this interview:
1. Split it into three separate sit downs to allow Palin to regroup and refocus if and when she gets flustered or makes a mistake.
2. Schedule the interview in Alaska so that Palin is as relaxed as possible and fighting on her home turf.
3. Put the interviews at the end of a week when, even if there is some sort of major screw-up, it will be lessened by the oncoming weekend.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.: Will Biden back up his recent comments about Hillary being a better choice for vice president than him by withdrawing so Obama could name Hillary?
Chris Cillizza: No.
Look, Joe Biden is Joe Biden. Barack Obama knew it when he picked him. Biden says literally everything that is on his mind. And, while that can be incredibly endearing at times, it also makes for the occasional gaffe.
His comment that Clinton would have been a better choice is such a moment. If there was any blessing in the "lipstick on a pig" comment for the Obama campaign, however, it was that it drained a lot of the oxygen from Biden's remarks.
_______________________
Washington: Yesterday, in a Fix post about the Minnesota Senate race, you said Minnesota had the highest anti-war sentiment, second only to New Hampshire. If that's the case, then why is New Hampshire a swing state? Does McCain's "independent" streak prevail over his Iraq policies?
Chris Cillizza: Ah yes. That was actually a few days ago when I wrote about the new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ad hitting Norm Coleman for his support of the war in Iraq.
Looking back at the 2006 election, there were two states where voters' opposition to the war played out in obvious electoral terms.
The first was in Minnesota where Amy Klobuchar turned what was expected to be a competitive Senate race against Mark Kennedy into a blow out. The second was New Hampshire, where Democrats not only knocked off vulnerable Rep. Charlie Bass (R), but also beat seemingly safe Rep. Jeb Bradley (R). Bradley fell to Carol Shea-Porter, an antiwar activist not seen as a serious opponent by many within her own party.
Given that, it would seem as though New Hampshire would be in the bag for Obama this year. But that doesn't account for McCain's unique connection to the state. New Hampshire jump-started McCain on the national scene in 2000 and saved his campaign in this race. New Hampshire-ites -- especially independents -- like McCain and respond to his maverick messaging.
Still, polling shows Obama with an edge in the state, and his campaign is confident they will hold it on Nov. 4.
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Glen Burnie, Md.: Commenting on Charles Gibson's interview with Gov. Palin, I think both sides of the commenters are wrong -- he asked good questions and actually asked what is on people's minds, and was skeptical yet fair, and the governor gave good answers. But then again, I thought he ran the best of the Democratic Party debates too, for the same reason -- he asked about what people were talking about.
The Obama people complained bitterly at the time, and I guess the McCain/Palin people are complaining a bit now, too, but give Gibson credit: He asks about things that the candidate may not want to respond to but they are on people's minds, and he doesn't ask them rhetorically or in a nasty, leading way, the way others on other networks do. And by the way, I thought the governor's answers last night about NATO defense and the Bush Doctrine were clearer and more specific than anything Sen. Obama ever has said about that.
Chris Cillizza: An interesting take.
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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Chris -- a Senate question for you. Is Al Franken making any headway against Norm Coleman here in Minnesota? They both have been running some pretty tough ads, but we also have a relatively strong third-party candidate (Dean Barkley) in the mix. Is Coleman is any danger of losing his seat, or does Franken simply carry too much baggage to knock him out?
Chris Cillizza: Senate question! Love it. Keep them coming!
This is one of the best -- if not the best -- Senate race on the docket this fall.
Coleman is a savvy pol who, as a former Democrat, is absolutely detested by his former party. Franken is a larger than life personality who has brought tons of national attention to the race. Barkley served in the Senate -- albeit briefly -- and has a real following in the state.
Right now, the Coleman people feel good about where they are as they see the race, as a referendum on Franken and his controversial comments and writings during his past life as a satirist/comedian. But, Minnesota seems almost certain to go for Obama in the fall campaign, which should help Franken.
My guess is this will be a very close contest.
_______________________
Boston: Hey Chris, transplanted Washington political junkie now in Boston. Is the McCain/Palin surge working in terms of the Congressional races? Will a closer race mean less time for presidential candidates to help their party by campaigning with congressional candidates? Thanks for your time.
Chris Cillizza: Great question that I don't know the answer to.
Congressional Republicans are pushing the idea that the excitement in their base for Palin is helping them down-ballot, and several recent national surveys suggest that the huge Democratic edge on the generic ballot largely has evaporated in recent weeks.
Whether that will continue for the remainder of the race remains to be seen.
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Hampton Cove, Ala.: Chris, is there an agreement among the press corp not to cover Biden? Five draft deferrals, two brain aneurysms, 92-page expense report ... seems so different than the treatment Bush, Cheney and Palin have gotten. Is everyone in Alaska?
Chris Cillizza: Without accepting the premise of the first part of your question, I will tell you The Post as well as lots of other news organizations have lots and lots of people in Alaska.
I think the focus on Palin is so intense because we knew so little about her when she was picked. Biden is a much more of a known commodity inside Washington, a fact that takes away some of reporters' natural curiosity.
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Charlottesville, Va.: I found Gibson's tone condescending, and I was annoyed by his misquotation of Palin, and then his insistence that the misquotation were her "exact words." Kurtz appeared to be unfamiliar with the fact that she had been misquoted; will this ever get reflected in The Post's coverage?
Chris Cillizza: Another opinion on the Palin interview.
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Richmond, Va.: Why was Biden's comment about Hillary being a better VP a gaffe? I struck me as a bit of humility, something you rarely see in politicians and certainly Palin's "no hesitation about being the vice presidential nominee" didn't strike me as humble. It struck me as coming from someone who had no clue what she was getting into, or the gravity of the position.
Chris Cillizza: Fair point, and the word "gaffe" may have been too strong.
My only issue with Biden's comment: When you are running to be the vice president of the United States, it's usually not a good idea to say someone is better equipped for the job than you. That would be like me saying "I can do a good job with The Fix, but not as good a job as some other guy."
Wouldn't exactly instill a lot of confidence in The Fix Bosses.
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Old Town, Maine: I thought Palin's responses were frightening. She seemed like someone who crammed for an exam and then was trying to wing her way through it. There was no real thinking going on. Shouldn't the Obama campaign be talking about that? Yes, I know they want to get back to their message, but the whole set of foreign policy answers were awful, and Palin is not prepared to take over should McCain pass away.
Chris Cillizza: Maine is in the house!
I think you touch on an important point as it relates to Obama's new counterattack that McCain is out of touch on the economy.
The issue for Obama is that attacks on McCain's record on the economy are not what gets the Democratic base going these days. The only thing that the party base wants to hear is pushback on Palin, which is not something the Obama campaign seems willing to do.
For more on this, make sure to check out The Fix shortly ... I have a full post on the new attack by Obama and whether it will work.
_______________________
The only Republican in Ann Arbor, Mich.: Anyone who thought that Palin's answers on NATO and the Bush Doctrine were clearer than Obama's is crazy. I've been a McCain supporter for years, and I cringed. I thought she came across at times as rehearsed and at times as confused. I'm worried, especially here in Michigan where the Obama campaign's voter-registration campaign is phenomenal -- you should see the volunteers in Detroit.
Chris Cillizza: This comment reminds me of one of our favorite "Simpsons" episodes of all time -- Lisa the Vegetarian -- which contains the following lines:
Jimmy: Uhh, Mr. McClure? I have a crazy friend who says its wrong to eat meat. Is he crazy?
Troy McClure: Nooo, just ignorant. You see your crazy friend never heard of "The Food Chain."
So true.
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Austin, Texas: I find it amazing that polls in general show this race to be a dead heat. With most of the country agreeing that the past eight years have not been good, how is it that half of the populace believes that the Republican Party deserves to hold the presidency for another term? Is it the "maverick" label that McCain uses? Is he truly seen as an agent of change by independent voters?
Chris Cillizza: It's an interesting point. From a political environment standpoint, it's hard to argue that the playing field is badly stacked against Republicans.
So, why is McCain competitive? My guess is twofold: Voters still see McCain as a maverick, independent operator and that image appeals to them, and voters still have real questions about Obama and whether he is ready to be president.
Obama's job, then, in the next eight weeks is to call into question McCain's maverick credentials while simultaneously making sure he assures voters he is ready and able to lead.
Tough to do, but far from impossible.
_______________________
Washington: How do you think Palin did? Honestly.
Chris Cillizza: What I think matters so very little. Less than you can possibly imagine.
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Asheville, N.C.: The longer Palin holds off the media, the harder they pursue her, which plays to the whole "media stacked against us" mythology Republicans love. The more it's suggested she's hiding because she might be a lightweight, the lower her expectation bar drops. I think W proved in 2000 how valuable that can be. When and how does this stop being a win-win for her? Is the media's sole relevance in today's politics simply spelling names right and providing free advertising for the day's most spectacular spin, no matter how inaccurate?
Chris Cillizza: This shows that attacking the media is not the sole purview of conservatives.
The media: Hated by everyone.
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Falls Church, Va.:"Denali" and "Driller," eh? What are the Secret Service codenames of the other candidates and spouses? (I'm sure they've been mentioned, but I've missed them).
washingtonpost.com: 'Renegade' Joins Race For White House (Post, June 17)
Chris Cillizza: I just read that Biden's codename is "Celtic" and Michelle Obama is "Renaissance."
The Fix codename? We are partial to "Animal" or maybe "Hoya" or "Cardinal" in honor of our basketball and field hockey rooting loyalties.
We could always go simple: "Fix."
_______________________
Chris Cillizza: That's all, folks. Thanks for joining me this morning and thanks for the continued support of The Fix.
Remember to check The Fix multiple times a day (100 or so would be helpful for my page views) for the latest and greatest news and analysis from the campaign trail.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to root for the Catholic University Cardinals field hockey team tomorrow as they take their show on the road for a game against the Randolph Macon Hornets! Go Cards!
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 11, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
INSIDE THE TIMES: September 11, 2008
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Metropolitan Desk; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 2371 words
INTERNATIONAL
IF NORTH KOREA'S LEADER IS ILL,
The Question Is Succession
Intelligence reports that Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, suffered a stroke raise questions about succession that the North's neighbors have long feared asking. Mr. Kim took over after his father, Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea, died of heart failure in 1994. Long before that, he had been groomed as a successor. But none of his three known sons nor his daughter has emerged as an obvious candidate to take the dynasty into a third generation. PAGE A6
PAKISTANI LEADER CRITICIZES U.S.
The chief of the Pakistani army said his forces would not tolerate United States missions into Pakistan to fight Taliban and Qaeda militants and would defend the country's sovereignty ''at all costs.'' The statement by the chief amounted to a direct rebuff to the United States by the Pakistanis, who are regarded by the Bush administration as an ally in the campaign on terrorism. PAGE A8
A LOOK INSIDE BIN LADEN'S JIHAD
A large cache of audiocassette tapes left behind at Osama bin Laden's headquarters in Kandahar, Afghanistan, provide a more spontaneous look at al Qaeda than is usually available through the carefully choreographed messages it releases to the world, said Flagg Miller, a University of California, Davis, professor who spent five years translating the cassettes. Among the revelations: being on jihad can be boring. PAGE A14
EFFORT TO HELP CHAD ENDS
When the World Bank agreed in 2000 to help finance a $4.2 billion pipeline to tap the undeveloped oil wealth of Chad, the government of Chad agreed to channel most of its royalties into fighting poverty. That experiment expired quietly this week. Chad repaid the $65.7 million it owed the World Bank out of national coffers swollen by oil revenues, but it had not honored part of its bargain, the bank said. PAGE A12
IRAQ SEEKS FIGHTER JETS
Iraq's defense minister said that his country was seeking to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States, which he said would be a crucial step if Iraqi forces were to assume more responsibilities from American soldiers. His American counterpart, Robert M. Gates, said he believed the Iraq war had entered the ''endgame.'' PAGE A6
A COLD WAR MYSTERY
It was a cold war legend: a Bulgarian dissident writer who had defected to the West and become a journalist and critic of Communist rule died in a London hospital of a mysterious fever after being injected with a poison pellet from a specially adapted umbrella. Now, 30 years later, new mystery swirls around the death. PAGE A10
national
HIGH COSTS AND OBSTACLES
Delay Fence Along Border
Cost overruns, legal obstacles and other problems were imperiling the completion of the 670 miles of fencing and technological improvements on the Southwest border that President Bush has promoted as vital to securing it, the Department of Homeland Security said. PAGE A16
PREPARING FOR HURRICANE IKE
Thousands of people fled coastal areas of Texas after Hurricane Ike spun off Cuba, roared into the Gulf of Mexico and headed toward the state with growing strength. The storm pummeled Haiti, Cuba and other parts of the Caribbean, then refueled in the Gulf of Mexico. It headed toward a landfall Saturday as a Category 4 hurricane betweenCorpus Christiand Galveston. PAGE A21
CALLS TO EASE CUBA EMBARGO
With Cuba in trouble, ravaged by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, Miami is again debating its relationship with the island. Even as supporters of the 47-year-old trade embargo maintain that there are already enough programs providing aid, groups have begun to demand that the policy's restrictions on family travel and remittances be lifted for 60 to 90 days so Cuban-Americans can do more for their relatives. PAGE A21
CLEANING UP A NUCLEAR MESS
Last month B Reactor, the world's first major nuclear reactor and the source of plutonium for the bomb that was dropped on Nagasaki in World War II, was designated a national historic landmark. Although the federal government no longer produces plutonium at the B Reactor -- at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Richland, Wash., -- it expects to spend the foreseeable future cleaning up after it, very carefully. PAGE A16
MCCAIN UNVEILS NEW OBAMA ADS
Escalating its efforts to portray Senator Barack Obama as a candidate whose values fall outside the mainstream, the campaign of Senator John McCain unveiled a new television advertisement asserting that Mr. Obama, the Democratic nominee, favors ''comprehensive sex education'' for kindergarten students. The accusation, however, seriously distorts the record. PAGE A22
DEBATE REVIVED ON KNEE SURGERY
A study has found that surgery is no better than more conservative treatment to relieve knee pain caused by arthritis. The results of the study are in line with those from a study published in 2002. But experts are divided about what effects the two studies will have. PAGE A19
Palin to Break News Blackout A23
Panel Backs Airlines on Safety A18
metro
HOLE IN CITY'S SKYLINE
Still Lingers After 9/11
Marissa Gonzalez had designed her whole fourth-floor apartment in Brooklyn around the outline of the Lower Manhattan skyline. A few months after Sept. 11, 2001, she moved out. And though it may seem trivial compared with the pain of those who lost loved ones, friends or colleagues in the terrorist attacks, the way New Yorkers have reached accommodation -- or not -- with the transformed view provides yet another window into the city's long recovery process. PAGE B1
LEARNING BY DOING
Some 500 engineering students at Columbia University will earn academic credit this year participating in projects around Harlem: designing swings for people in wheelchairs, creating a trash can that can be used by the severely disabled and others. Such service learning has been a graduation requirement for all of Columbia's engineering majors for six years, and other academic departments are considering integrating it into the curriculum. PAGE B1
SPORTS
DOPING QUESTIONS REKINDLED
As Armstrong Plans Return
As Lance Armstrong prepares to announce his return to professional cycling, a somewhat arcane scientific debate has rekindled questions about his past and whether his cycling success came in part through doping. The matter involves an error in an expert's long-term study of Armstrong's muscle efficiency -- and whether that error is significant, or incidental. PAGE D2
AFTER 18 YEARS, RIVALRY RENEWED
Penn State and Syracuse began their football rivalry with a 0-0 tie in 1922 at the Polo Grounds. More than a few of their 68 games ended with some sort of controversy. And then they ended altogether; the teams have not played each other since 1990 -- and they even dispute the reason for that. But No. 17 Penn State (2-0) and Syracuse (0-2) will revive their history Saturday in the Carrier Dome, then return to State College, Pa., next fall. PAGE D6
A TOP PROSPECT KEPT OFF THE FIELD
Pedro Alvarez, the son of a New York City livery cab driver, was picked second over all by the Pittsburgh Pirates in Major League Baseball's draft in June after three standout seasons playing third base for Vanderbilt. But his professional career is tied up in a dispute about precisely when he made his deal with the Pirates and whether baseball rules were broken. PAGE D5
OBITUARIES
RICHARD MONETTE, 64
A Canadian actor and director, he became the artistic director of the Stratford Shakespeare Festival and led it into the most robust artistic and financial period in its history. Mr. Monette was known for unabashedly audience-pleasing productions that were sometimes dismissed by critics who derided him as a populist. PAGE C12
BUSINESS
REPORT ACCUSES BANKS
Of Tax Evasion Schemes
A number of Wall Street investment banks are selling complex schemes intended to allow foreign investors to illegally avoid paying billions of dollars in dividend taxes, according to a Senate subcommittee report that singles out Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Citigroup. Complex equity swaps, fake loans and sham stock sales help to disguise dividend payments to clients, the report said. PAGE C5
CHINA JOINS REAL ESTATE DECLINE
China has joined at least one capitalist list it would not want to: nations suffering a real estate decline. Real estate brokers say prices are down drastically and volumes are up, a downturn that comes as Chinese exports have slowed and stock markets have plummeted. The confluence of events has triggered what economists describe as a deceleration in China's economic growth, although at nearly 10 percent it remains the envy of many countries. PAGE C1
UNEASY LIES THE LEHMAN HEAD
Richard S. Fuld started at Lehman Brothers in 1969 as an intern, rose through the ranks, stayed when the firm was sold in distress in the 1980s and oversaw its spinoff in the 1990s. He is the longest-serving Wall Street chief but also the one investors are most closely tying to the problems in the mortgage markets. ''I think it's possible he could be pushed out any day now,'' one analyst said. PAGE C1
TANKER DECISION DELAYED
Saying that the competition had become too ''highly charged,'' the defense secretary, Robert M. Gates, said the Pentagon was postponing a decision on a $35 billion contract to replace the Air Force's aging tanker fleet until the next administration. Mr. Gates said that the seven-year acquisition process had become ''enormously complex and emotional,'' blaming ''mistakes and missteps along the way'' by the Pentagon. PAGE C3
INVESTORS TURN ON THRIFT
Investors drove down shares in Washington Mutual, the nation's largest thrift, by 30 percent on fears that, like Lehman Brothers, it is running out of time and options to find a buyer or raise capital to repair it from a hard hit by the downturn in the housing market. PAGE C1
CARDS REPLACE LINES OF CREDIT
Banks have become more reluctant to extend traditional lines of credit to small businesses, but they have been offering ''small business'' credit cards. One fundamental difference is that lines of credit have low, fixed interest rates or slow-moving, variable ones, while interest rates on credit cards can jump unpredictably. Too unpredictably, some small-business owners say. PAGE C6
Style
I WANT MY KIDS TO HAVE
The Internet Persona I Never Did
Of all the things expected of precocious children, typing is not usually one. Or at least not while in infancy. So parents help them start, managing their pages on sites like totspot.com, billed as Facebook for children. It makes whipping out pictures in an old wallet look even more low-tech than ever. Want to check in on your favorite nephew? Just log on. Page E2
GOLD, SILVER OR BRONZE? NO, IRON
The Ironman competition, the premiere triathlon in the country, has seen a 40 percent rise in entry costs. But unlike gas or rent, this has not done anything to dampen participation. While anybody can stage a race, it takes a licensing fee to host an Ironman event, complete with the logo's trademark M-dot, proving again that exclusivity is a popular commodity all its own. Page E8
Arts
SPLITS OR BACKBENDS,
Strike an Acrobatic Pose
A moment in time, between muscle twitches and synaptic response, a photograph of a dancer can often not help being picturesque. In ''Capri's Camera on Dance,'' Frank Capri captures 29 of these moments but shows the flashy, fancy moves of dance and often neglects their more subtle, distinctive counterparts, Alastair Macauley writes. The focus seems to be, unfortunately, on the sensational. Page B5
HOME
PROVIDING A NATURAL LOOK
Through Unnatural Effort
Once it matures, a perennial meadow in bloom -- as opposed to, say, a large expanse of lawn -- presents nature at its most alluring. But don't think that producing one is as simple as sprinkling a bunch of wildflower seeds. There are rules to be aware of, and maybe the most important is just to be patient. PAGE D1
LIFE IN THE ROUND
The architects Branimir Medic and Pero Puljiz believe that the modern house must bring the family more intensely together -- because modern life makes those times less frequent than before. They see features of traditional homes -- multiple floors, separate rooms -- as no longer conducive to family life. They favor round -- think of living inside a doughnut surrounding a courtyard. PAGE D4
Editorial
MISSISSIPPI'S BALLOT TRICK
Mississippi's governor and secretary of state have come up with an appalling dirty trick for the November election. They have decided to hide a hard-fought race for the United States Senate at the bottom of the ballot, where they clearly are hoping some voters will overlook it. PAGE A26
IN SEARCH OF GOVERNOR PALIN
It is past time for Sarah Palin, Republican running mate, Alaska governor and self-proclaimed reformer, to fill in for the voting public the gaping blanks about her record and qualifications to be vice president. The best way would be by doing exactly what the McCain campaign is avoiding -- holding an honest news conference. PAGE A26
NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
Daniel Mudd and Richard Syron, the ousted chiefs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, could collect as much as $24 million in exit pay unless a federal regulator says no. Neither should be rewarded any more than they already have been for their failures. PAGE A26
op-ed
GAIL COLLINS
A large number of Democrats have gone completely nuts about Barack Obama's presidential campaign. He's going to lose! Sarah Palin is getting all the attention! The Republicans are so mean! Please, little Obama-ites, calm down. You're overreacting. PAGE A27
QUESTIONS OF SECURITY
In Op-Ed articles to commemorate 9/11, Philip Bobbitt, a law professor and former member of the National Security Council, and John C. Danforth, a former Republican senator from Missouri, lay out essential foreign policy questions for the candidates; Clark Kent Ervin, the former inspector general of the Department of Homeland Security, asks whether the United States is prepared for another attack; and Edward Ruscha, an artist, shares his thoughts about an old photograph of Lower Manhattan. PAGE A27
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The New York Times
September 11, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
All Too Quiet on the Homeland Front
BYLINE: By CLARK KENT ERVIN.
Clark Kent Ervin, the inspector general of the Homeland Security Department from 2003 to 2004, is a fellow at the Aspen Institute and the author of ''Open Target: Where America Is Vulnerable to Attack.''
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Pg. 25
LENGTH: 642 words
DATELINE: Washington
IF recent history is any guide -- the first World Trade Center bombing a month after Bill Clinton became president; 9/11 itself, in the first year of the Bush administration; the Madrid bombing in 2004 on the eve of a national election in Spain; and the foiled London-Glasgow bomb plot last summer at the start of a new government -- President Barack Obama or President John McCain may well be tested by terrorists soon after taking office.
And it is not just historical patterns that suggest that another major attack is likely to be attempted sooner rather than later. Our intelligence agencies tell us that Al Qaeda is stronger now than at any time since 2001. The sanctuary the group found in Afghanistan has been recreated just over the border in Pakistan, and the departure of former Gen. Pervez Musharraf as that country's president makes it less rather than more likely that the terrorist training camps there will soon be flushed out.
Thanks to the strain that Iraq continues to place on our military, it may not be long before the Taliban reclaims all of Afghanistan. With two bases of operation, Al Qaeda would be even stronger than it was before 9/11. And around the world, the flames of anti-Americanism have rarely burned hotter, creating a geopolitical environment that increases the risk of a terrorist attack here.
The candidates owe it to us to explain -- loudly often, and in detail -- exactly what they think the federal government has done right and done wrong in the seven years since 9/11 in securing this country against another terrorist attack.
Yet neither candidate has said much, during the long 2008 presidential campaign, about homeland security. Both Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama address the topic to some degree on their Web sites, but they do not discuss it in detail in stump speeches, nor do they tend to bring it up unbidden in town hall meetings or interviews with the news media.
The government's approach to homeland security needs to be changed drastically if we are to close the gap between how secure we need to be and how secure we really are. Airport screeners still fail undercover tests of their ability to spot concealed weapons. Scanners at seaports are unable to detect the presence of deadly radiation in cargo containers. Here are just a few of the questions that each candidate should answer:
What sectors and sites remain most vulnerable to terrorist attacks, and in what priority should these vulnerabilities be addressed? Should, for example, all airport workers, and not just crew members, be routinely screened like passengers?
Once detection technology is improved, should all cargo arriving at seaports be scanned for radiation?
Is additional spending needed to address any of the nation's vulnerabilities? How much more, and how should the money be allocated?
How would you improve the collection, analysis and dissemination of intelligence related to homeland security?
What is the proper balance between security and liberty?
How, if at all, should the Department of Homeland Security be restructured?
What background and qualities would you look for in the next secretary of homeland security and, assuming you retain the position, the next White House homeland security adviser?
As Hillary Clinton's iconic campaign ad underscored, the phone may well ring in the White House early one morning next year, with news of an attack on our soil. Americans want to know that the president who would answer that call has the judgment, expertise and experience to execute an effective response.
We also need a president who will do everything within his power to prevent such an attack. Knowing the answers that Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama would give to questions about homeland security would help voters judge which candidate is best prepared to defend and to deter.
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The New York Times
September 11, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
Misery Loves Democrats
BYLINE: By GAIL COLLINS.
Nicholas D. Kristof is off today.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 25
LENGTH: 763 words
It has come to our attention that a large number of Democrats have gone completely nuts about Barack Obama's presidential campaign.
He's going to lose! Sarah Palin is getting all the attention! The Republicans are so mean! Why isn't he tougher?
They're calling each other up to discuss how doomed they are, vowing to move to Canada as soon as the election is over and the inevitable worst has occurred. Really, we evacuated several hurricane-prone states with more cheer and optimism.
Cheer up, Obama-ites. You're overreacting. I'll answer all your questions as long as you promise to take deep breaths into this nice paper bag.
Have you seen the polls? He should be talking more about the economy! Why isn't his campaign working harder?
If the Obama brain trust seems relatively serene compared with its seething base, it's because they live in the Electoral College world, where the presidential race only takes place in a third of the country. They don't care about national polls -- a concept as quaint as measuring one's wealth by caribou pelts. They worry about the undecided vote in Minnesota and Ohio and run their TV ads (about the economy) in places like Colorado and Michigan and Florida. If you live in California or New York or Texas, you don't really have much of a feel for their level of effort because as far as they're concerned, you've already voted.
I'm beginning to think we should have gone with Hillary Clinton.
Hillary now lives in a golden alternative universe. As soon as the Democrats had actually nominated Obama, they decided that Clinton was by far the better candidate and that they had destroyed their chances by not choosing her. This is the nature of the party. If she had not been in the race, the Democrats would probably be bemoaning the fact that they hadn't stuck with John Edwards and nailed down the critical swing-state philanderer vote.
Obama seems to be disappearing from the news compared with Sarah Palin!
One of the great things about this campaign is that both sides are convinced they're going to lose. Remember how nuts all the Obama people went when Hillary refused to concede? How suicidal the Republicans were when Obama was knocking them dead in Europe while McCain was tooling around in a golf cart with the president's father? We still have nearly two months to go. The people who haven't decided who they want to vote for by now aren't going to make up their minds until the last minute. Just chill for a few weeks until the debates start and let the Sarah Palin thing play itself out.
But the vice president isn't supposed to get any attention, and all people can talk about is Palin, Palin, Palin!
True. I think that's because she's from Alaska. It's got that frontier aura that we've missed since all the cowboy television series were canceled a generation ago. Plus, it gives us the opportunity to talk a lot about moose, which are a funny animal no matter how you slice it. If Palin had been a deer-hunting mom from New Jersey, John McCain would have gotten no post-convention bump whatsoever.
McCain, by the way, is the Republican nominee for president. You may remember him from the Sarah Palin convention in Minneapolis, where he gave a speech and was congratulated by Sarah Palin.
Have you seen that Republican lipstick video? They're trying to say Obama called her a pig!
Obama simply brought up the old saw about how ''you can put lipstick on a pig; it's still a pig.'' The Republicans seem to be assuming that since Palin has a joke about how hockey moms are pit bulls with lipstick, all references to mammals wearing lip rouge are about her.
If you really want to see a strange line of attack, take a look at the wolf ad. It cuts from Palin's face to Obama's to packs of wolves prowling through the forest, presumably in search of vice-presidential prey. Then comes the text claiming that as Barack drops in the polls, ''he'll try to destroy her.'' Given Palin's affection for shooting wolves from airplanes with high-powered rifles, it'd be more appropriate to have them cowering in their dens while she aims her machine gun from a diving Cessna.
You don't seem to appreciate how critical this election is.
Well, I definitely appreciate how long this election is. Time only seems short because these people have already been running for a year. Calm down. Remember, that 17-mile-long Swiss particle collider that people were afraid would create a black hole that swallows the Earth? It started operation this week. And so far, no planet-eating black holes. So you see, things could be worse.
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The New York Times
September 11, 2008 Thursday
Late Edition - Final
Ad on Sex Education Distorts Obama Policy
BYLINE: By LARRY ROHTER
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; CHECK POINT; Pg. 22
LENGTH: 860 words
Escalating its efforts to portray Senator Barack Obama as a candidate whose values fall outside the mainstream, the campaign of Senator John McCain on Tuesday unveiled a new television advertisement claiming that Mr. Obama, the Democratic nominee, favors ''comprehensive sex education'' for kindergarten students.
''Learning about sex before learning to read?'' the narrator asks in the 30-second advertisement, which the campaign says will be shown in battleground states and on national cable. The commercial also asserts that a sex-education bill introduced in Illinois, which Mr. Obama did not sponsor and which never became law, is his ''one accomplishment'' in the field of education.
Both sets of accusations, however, seriously distort the record.
The original controversy dates to 2003, when a bill to modify the teaching of sex education in Illinois was introduced in the Legislature. The proposal was supported by a coalition of education and public health organizations, including the Illinois Parent Teacher Association, the Illinois State Medical Society, the Illinois Public Health Association and the Illinois Education Association.
Mr. Obama voted for the bill in committee, where it passed, but it never came to a full and final vote. The proposal called for ''age and developmentally appropriate'' sex education and also allowed parents the option of withdrawing their children from such classroom instruction if they felt that it clashed with their beliefs or values.
In referring to the sex-education bill, the McCain campaign is largely recycling old and discredited accusations made against Mr. Obama by Alan Keyes in their 2004 Senate race. At that time, Mr. Obama stated that he understood the main objective of the legislation, as it pertained to kindergarteners, to be to teach them how to defend themselves against sexual predators.
''I have a 6-year-old daughter and a 3-year-old daughter, and one of the things my wife and I talked to our daughter about is the possibility of somebody touching them inappropriately, and what that might mean,'' Mr. Obama said in 2004. ''And that was included specifically in the law, so that kindergarteners are able to exercise some possible protection against abuse, because I have family members as well as friends who suffered abuse at that age.''
It is a misstatement of the bill's purpose, therefore, to maintain, as the McCain campaign advertisement does, that Mr. Obama favored conventional sex education as a policy for 5-year-olds. Under the Illinois proposal, ''medically accurate'' education about more complicated topics, including intercourse, contraception and homosexuality, would have been reserved for older students in higher grades.
The advertisement, then, also misrepresents what the bill meant by ''comprehensive.'' The instruction the bill required was comprehensive in that it called for a curriculum that went from kindergarten and through high school, not in the sense that kindergarteners would have been fully exposed to the entire gamut of sex-related issues.
In another part of the advertisement, Mr. McCain maintains that Mr. Obama's sole achievement in education was the sex-education bill. In reality, Mr. Obama not only helped administer a $49 million education project in Chicago in the 1990s, but also sponsored or co-sponsored measures that increased the number of charter schools in Illinois, and expanded federal grants to summer school programs and to historically black colleges.
As support for its contention that Mr. Obama is ''wrong on education,'' Mr. McCain's advertisement cited criticism by Education Week, a trade publication. Mr. Obama ''hasn't made a significant mark on education'' in his years in the Senate in Illinois and Washington, the advertisement asserts.
Education Week did indeed make that assessment in an article published last year. But in the same paragraph, the magazine also said that Mr. Obama ''did promote early-childhood initiatives that advocates considered ''innovative and progressive,'' and also noted that ''his biggest accomplishment in the field was the creation of a state board to oversee the expansion of early-childhood education in the state.''
The same publication has also criticized Mr. McCain, in language that was perhaps even stronger. Early this year, in an article titled ''John McCain Where Art Thou?'' it complained that he offered ''a laundry list of fairly vague answers'' on how to improve schools and did not make education a priority.
''McCain is a campaign-finance, foreign-relations, anti-abortion, tax-cut candidate,'' the magazine said. ''Education is not his thing. Depending on your perspective, McCain's relative silence on education may be a good thing. If you think the federal government has grossly overreached into the state business of education, then he may be your guy.''
The Obama campaign expressed outrage over the commercial, with Bill Burton, a spokesman, describing it as ''shameful and downright perverse.''
But Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for the McCain campaign, said, ''the Obama campaign did not and cannot dispute a shred of the content in the ad.''
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The New York Times
September 11, 2008 Thursday
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Troubling Signs for Obama in Pennsylvania
BYLINE: By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
SECTION: Section ; Column 0; National Desk; ON LINE; Pg.
LENGTH: 1425 words
DATELINE: LANCASTER, Pa.
Pennsylvania has voted for Democrats for president since 1992. But no one ever said winning it would be as easy for Senator Barack Obama as, say, ladling Cheez Whiz onto a Pat's steak.
In April he managed to insult the state's rural voters, saying they cling to their guns and religion because they are bitter about their economic plight. And he lost the primary to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Since winning the Democratic nomination, Mr. Obama's campaign has labored to secure his standing here. It has conducted a ferocious voter registration drive, flooded the airwaves with commercials and dispatched thousands of volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls. It has opened 65 offices across the state -- four times as many as Mr. McCain has -- and more than it has opened in any other state.
Still, Craig Schirmer, the Obama state director, said on a conference call with reporters Wednesday that he expected the race here to be ''incredibly close,'' within ''a couple'' of percentage points.
Maybe he was just lowering expectations.
But a new Quinnipiac poll released on Thursday shows that Mr. Obama's lead over Mr. McCain in Pennsylvania has shrunk to three percentage points (48-45) from seven percentage points on Aug. 26. (The sampling was taken Sept. 5-9 of 1,001 likely Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, making the results statistically a dead heat.)
Mr. McCain has narrowed the gap in Pennsylvania by wiping out Mr. Obama's lead among independent voters, said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Mr. Obama still holds a three-point edge ''by convincing previously uncommitted Hillary Clinton primary voters and Catholics to move into his camp -- the Catholics perhaps because of some help from running mate Joe Biden, a Catholic from Scranton,'' Mr. Richards said.
Mr. McCain has also gained ground among white women, according to this poll and others, perhaps reflecting a positive reaction to his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his vice-presidential running mate.
A raucous rally here Tuesday with Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin -- what Mr. McCain calls ''this team of mavericks'' -- provided fresh evidence of what Mr. Obama is up against in this state.
Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin drew a cheering throng of 7,000 people to the sports center at Franklin & Marshall College, practically a tidal wave compared with Mr. McCain's once-sleepy audiences (although a bit smaller than an Obama rally nearby a few days earlier).
Once they arrived in the arena, Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin spent 10 minutes just working their way through the crowd to the podium as Jerry Goldsmith's stirring theme music from the football movie ''Rudy'' washed over them. ''Sarah!'' they chanted. ''Sarah!''
In her 14-minute speech, Ms. Palin, wearing a red jacket, black dress and red patent-leather heels, essentially repeated her acceptance speech from the convention, including some information about her record that has been disputed, and she highlighted Mr. Obama's remark about small-town voters.
''Here in Pennsylvania,'' Ms. Palin said, ''we don't know what to make of a candidate who lavishes praise on working people when they're listening, and turns around and talks about how bitterly they cling to their religion and their guns when they're not listening.''
The crowd booed a mightily.
The remark struck at the heart of one of Mr. Obama's weaknesses, the blue-collar, Reagan Democrats who generally favored Mrs. Clinton in the primaries.
Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat who backed Mrs. Clinton in the primary but is now hustling for Mr. Obama, indicated during the conference call Wednesday that these working-class voters were still proving elusive for Mr. Obama. He said the McCain campaign had misrepresented Mr. Obama's economic plan and had ''confused the electorate.''
''We haven't advanced the ball as much in that category as we have in expanding the base,'' Mr. Rendell said, referring to the addition of hundreds of thousands of new Democrats, who now outnumber registered Republicans by 1.1 million.
The inclination of blue-collar voters toward Mr. McCain is evident in the new poll. It shows Mr. McCain with a substantial lead in the southwestern part of the state, for example, a region dominated by Reagan Democrats, and among people without college degrees. That region, and those without degrees, voted heavily for Mrs. Clinton.
All told, the poll says, Mr. McCain wins perhaps one in five of those who went for Mrs. Clinton in the primary, which should be a big red flag to the Obama campaign that it is not connecting with those voters.
Of two former Clinton supporters who were interviewed at the rally, they were split between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain. Celia Fauth, 50, a real estate agent, now backs Mr. Obama while her daughter, Lindsay, 28, a marketing coordinator, is backing Mr. McCain.
Celia Fauth said that while Mr. McCain's pick of Ms. Palin made her like him more, she said she would vote for Mr. Obama because Mr. McCain is ''too tied to Bush.''
But her daughter is voting Republican because Ms. Palin''brings youth and energy,'' Lindsay Fauth said, ''and it would be wonderful to have a working mom as vice president.''
Lancaster County, made up of small towns and the relentlessly expanding exurbs of Philadelphia, is an interesting piece of the Pennsylvania puzzle in presidential politics. While the city of Lancaster is Democratic, the county is overwhelmingly Republican. In 2004, it voted for President Bush over Senator John Kerry by 66 percent to 34 percent, even as Mr. Kerry narrowly won the state. Voters here are deeply religious and generally oppose abortion rights and gun control.
In this year's primary, Lancaster was one of the few counties in the state where Democrats voted for Mr. Obama over Mrs. Clinton.
And in the Republican primary, voters were not all that enthused by Mr. McCain. Even though he was already the likely nominee, Mr. McCain drew only 73 percent of the vote. Representative Ron Paul won 16 percent and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, 11 percent.
Now, according to the Quinnipiac poll, Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama are virtually tied here in central Pennsylvania.
Mr. McCain needs to hold down Mr. Obama's support here because Mr. Obama will have substantial support from Philadelphia, where the poll shows him leading Mr. McCain by 3-1, as well as in Pittsburgh.
But strikingly, Mr. McCain shows a slight lead in the Southeast, home to the state's all-important Philadelphia suburbs, where most statewide races are traditionally decided -- the battleground within the battleground. While these suburbs were staunchly Republican for decades, they have generally voted Democratic for president since 1992.
If the rally here on Tuesday is any indication, Ms. Palin has galvanized enthusiasm for the Republican ticket, especially among social conservatives and white women.
Shirl Schober, 43, a real estate title searcher in Lancaster County, said that the addition of Ms. Palin to the ticket rekindled her interest in Mr. McCain.
''I was starting to worry; I thought he didn't want the presidency, and I was getting a little disillusioned,'' said Ms. Schober. ''But when he picked her, I decided, he does want it.''
Ruth Ecklin, 46, a retailer in Lancaster, who brought two of her four daughters to see Ms. Palin, said, ''I'm more enthusiastic now, no question.'' They waited for two hoursoutside as part of an overflow crowd and watched her on a big screen.
The day after the rally -- as some national Democrats began to fret publicly about the state of the race -- the Obama team held a conference call to tout the progress it had made in its ground operation in Pennsylvania.
Mr. Schirmer, the state director, shrugged off a question about how Ms. Palin had changed the political landscape, saying she had not and that Mr. Obama was the true agent of change.
But Mr. Rendell responded to that question by mentioning Mrs. Clinton, saying she had always planned to campaign heavily in the state even before Ms. Palin was picked.
''We're going to see a lot of Senator Clinton in Pennsylvania and she will be a big help in defusing some of this popularity,'' Mr. Rendell said, being careful to add that Mrs. Clinton would take on Ms. Palin on the issues, not personally.
Mr. Obama has 54 days to try to solidify his lead here. The next potential game-changer comes in 15 days with the first presidential debate.
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September 11, 2008 Thursday
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McCain Camp Hits Obama On More Than One Front
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman and Peter Slevin; Washington Post Staff Writers
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Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign launched a broadside against Sen. Barack Obama yesterday, accusing him of a sexist smear, comparing his campaign to a pack of wolves on the prowl against the GOP vice presidential pick, charging that the Democratic nominee favored sex education for kindergartners, and resurrecting the comments of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.
The assault came a day before the seventh anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, when McCain and Obama are scheduled to appear together at Ground Zero during a mutually declared truce. That cease-fire is not likely to last long. With the airwaves already filling up with some of the most negative imagery of the campaign, Obama aides hinted that they would save their toughest counterpunch until after Sept. 11.
"Enough," Obama declared yesterday while campaigning in Norfolk, Va. "I don't care what they say about me. But I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and Swift boat politics. Enough is enough."
The McCain campaign, meanwhile, sought to portray itself as the victim of unfair smears and sexist attacks against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin even as it pursued its own assaults on Obama. The rhetoric was echoed yesterday on conservative talk radio, the Internet and in the House, where Republican women decried Obama's alleged sexism.
"The Obama campaign has decided that the way to get at Sarah Palin is through personal attacks and sexist insults," Rep. Candice S. Miller (Mich.) said on the House floor.
On a campaign conference call last night, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) lumped together Obama's reference to a female reporter as "sweetie" last May, his decision not to choose Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) or Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate, and his use of the saying "lipstick on a pig" in comments Tuesday to denounce what they call a pattern of sexism.
The attacks over the first three days of this week have come at a sometimes dizzying pace. Within 24 hours, the McCain campaign released a television advertisement saying Obama favored "comprehensive sex education" for kindergartners, produced an Internet ad charging that the Democrat had referred to Palin as a pig, then concluded with another ad saying, "Obama's politics of hope? Empty words."
All three of the spots drew outraged responses and charges of dirty politics from Obama and his supporters. "We've got an energy crisis," the candidate said at a campaign event where he had planned to focus entirely on education policy. "We have an education system that is not working for too many of our children and making us less competitive. We have an economy that is creating hardship for families all across America. We've got two wars going on, veterans coming home not being cared for -- and this is what they want to talk about."
McCain allies think they have succeeded in knocking Obama on his heels since he accepted his party's nomination in Denver two weeks ago.
"They really are in a meltdown," said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), a McCain adviser.
Obama aides say the assaults will not work, arguing that all of the accusations against him are a reach, if not fabrications. The sexism allegation stemmed from a comment Obama made in Virginia during a talk in which he did not mention Palin.
"Let's just list this for a second," he said Tuesday. "John McCain says he's about change, too. And so I guess his whole angle is, 'Watch out, George Bush. Except for economic policy, health-care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove-style politics, we're going to really shake things up in Washington. That's not change. That's just calling some -- the same thing something different. But you know, you can't, you can put, uh, lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig."
The McCain campaign seized on the remark, saying that Obama was alluding to Palin's characterization of herself as a pit bull in lipstick. The Internet ad skips over the introductory words from Obama, juxtaposing Palin's line from her nomination acceptance speech last Wednesday -- "They say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull: lipstick" -- with Obama's lipstick-on-a-pig phrase, a phrase that McCain also has used, to describe Clinton's health-care plan.
"Ready to lead? No," the ad concludes. "Ready to smear? Yes."
The sex education ad referred to legislation Obama voted for -- but did not sponsor -- in the Illinois Senate that allowed school boards to develop "age-appropriate" sex education courses at all levels. Kindergarten teachers were given the approval to teach about appropriate and inappropriate touching to combat molestation.
The McCain advertisement calls it "Obama's one accomplishment" in education: "legislation to teach comprehensive sex education to kindergartners."
"Learning about sex before learning to read? Barack Obama, wrong on education, wrong for your family," the ad concludes.
Paired with that was another attack. The "wolves" ad alludes to a "mini-army" of lawyers dispatched to "dig dirt" on Palin in Alaska.
"As Obama drops in the polls, he'll try to destroy her," the ad states.
The ad pins the swirl of Internet rumors about McCain's running mate to the Obama campaign. The reference to a mini-army was drawn from a Wall Street Journal column by conservative John Fund. A spokesman for the Democratic National Committee said yesterday that neither it nor the Obama campaign had any researchers or lawyers in Alaska.
It was a McCain surrogate, former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.), who brought back the words of Wright, Obama's former longtime pastor, whose incendiary sermons nearly derailed the Democrat's primary candidacy.
"Frankly, I think Reverend Wright was correct when he says he's just doing what politicians do," Thompson said of Obama as he introduced McCain to a Northern Virginia audience. "That's not the kind of change this country needs."
During a Boston fundraiser, Obama's running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), denounced the negativity, noting that McCain himself faced smears in his 2000 race for the presidency.
"What really disappoints me is the very tactics used against him, they're trying to use against Barack Obama now," he said. "It's literally saddening. I didn't expect it, I didn't expect it. But I guess I should learn to expect everything."
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September 11, 2008 Thursday
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McCain's 'Education' Spot Is Dishonest, Deceptive
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A new John McCain ad caricatures Barack Obama's education record by claiming that his only achievement is to pass legislation ensuring "comprehensive sex education" for kindergartners. It implies that its critique of the Democratic presidential nominee has been endorsed by the nonpartisan journal Education Week, when in fact it is a hodgepodge of quotes from a variety of sources stitched together to form a highly partisan political attack.
THE FACTS
Education Week bills itself as the "journal of record" for education professionals. In March last year, it ran a generally positive article about Obama, describing him as one of several Democratic candidates with a demonstrated interest in education policy. The article noted that Obama had gained considerable "grassroots experience" in education problems in Chicago as the member of a board of a school reform initiative known as the Annenberg Challenge. It went on to say that he had not made "a significant mark on education policy" in either the Illinois Senate or the U.S. Senate, but that he had pushed for the expansion of early-childhood education.
The McCain ad includes captions attributing the quotes on accountability and Obama's alleged support for "the existing public school monopoly" to a Washington Post editorial and an op-ed in the Chicago Tribune. (Needless to say, the ad omitted The Post's criticism of McCain for failing to come up with a detailed education plan.) But a casual viewer or listener could easily get the impression that all the quotes came from Education Week.
The McCain ad is wrong when it claims -- in a voice dripping with sarcasm -- that Obama's "one accomplishment" in the education field was a sex education bill for kindergartners. While it is true that Obama supported the bill, he was not one of the sponsors. As far as kindergartners were concerned, the principal purpose of the bill was to make them aware of the risk of inappropriate touching and sexual predators. Other states, including California and Massachusetts, have passed similar legislation.
Obama was more closely identified with other education legislation in the Illinois Senate, including a 2003 bill he co-sponsored to double the number of Chicago charter schools from 15 to 30. On substance, Obama has attempted to tread a fine line between his opposition to vouchers and his support for greater choice for parents, including support for charter schools. In a speech in Dayton, Ohio, earlier this week, he proposed doubling the funding for "responsible charter schools."
THE PINOCCHIO TEST
Nobody expects television ads to be fair and objective analyses of public policy. Almost by definition, the ads are partisan sales pitches, designed to promote one political brand while running down the rival brand. But they should not misrepresent the record of the other side and should clearly distinguish quotes from nonpartisan news sources from standard political rhetoric. The McCain "Education" ad fails this test.
THREE PINOCCHIOS: Significant factual errors
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September 11, 2008 Thursday
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The Ads That Aren't;
Candidates Let Media Spread the Message
BYLINE: Paul Farhi; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C01
LENGTH: 1336 words
When Democrats turned their attention to national security themes at their nominating convention last month, Sen. John McCain's campaign was ready. In a withering TV commercial called "Tiny," McCain claimed that Sen. Barack Obama had called Iran a "tiny" country that "doesn't pose a serious threat."
As reporters scrambled to vet the claims -- which, it reportedly turned out, distorted Obama's comments -- few noticed something curious about the commercial itself: "Tiny" appeared almost nowhere on the air except in news accounts. Since introducing the much-discussed commercial two weeks ago, in fact, McCain's campaign has bought airtime for it just 10 times.
The McCain ad, in other words, wasn't really much of an ad at all.
In political parlance, "Tiny" was a "vapor," or "ghost," ad. The goal of such spots is to stir up news-media interest rather than to reach voters directly through the purchase of expensive TV time.
Campaign ads-that-aren't are "the oldest trick going," says Kenneth Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who tracks political advertising. "You call a press conference, announce the ad, then run it once or twice. It's like Lucy pulling the football from Charlie Brown."
This time around, both major-party candidates have been playing the game, reaping a small bonanza of attention from cable and local news stations that have given the ads a free ride. McCain's campaign has been more aggressive and arguably more effective than Obama's, launching spots that have undercut Obama just when he seemed to be on the ascent.
Yesterday, for instance, the McCain campaign released a commercial called "Lipstick," which attacks Obama for allegedly smearing vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin by saying "You can't put lipstick on a pig." The ad, however, appears to be more of a video press release than a traditional commercial. McCain hasn't announced any airtime buys for it, and at 35 seconds, its length isn't standard for a TV commercial.
Obama's representatives have repeatedly complained about the content of McCain's vapor ads, as well as about the media's coverage of them. Obama spokesman Nick Shapiro blasted McCain for the strategy, saying in a statement that McCain was using "Bush political tactics" to try to "distract the media."
One ad unveiled by McCain quotes unfavorable comments about Obama made by the Democratic nominee's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, during the primaries; this ad has aired just seven times since it was announced two weeks ago, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), an Arlington-based firm that tracks political advertising. Another McCain spot that claimed -- erroneously -- that Obama "made time to go the gym" instead of visiting wounded troops during his visit to Europe this summer has aired just nine times, appearing in only three cities.
In each case, however, broadcast and print reporters gave McCain's claims wide circulation.
By contrast, an ad in which McCain compared Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears has aired more than 12,000 times as a paid spot across the country, according to CMAG. "They've used this tactic to a T," says Evan Tracey, who heads CMAG. "These [ads] feed the media beast the right food at just the right time. It has kept [McCain] relevant and part of the dialogue" at a time when Obama might have commanded the spotlight alone.
A spokesman for McCain, Brian Rogers, declined to discuss the frequency of the ads or other tactics. But he noted that "the reason our ads have gotten so much attention is that they reflect timely and compelling issues in this campaign. . . . The central question is: Is Barack Obama ready to be president?"
Obama has played the vapor-ad game, too. After Hillary Clinton launched a spot during the primaries suggesting that she had the experience to handle a world crisis that could break with "a 3 a.m. phone call" to the White House, Obama responded with a spot attesting to his "judgment and courage" in opposing the war in Iraq. That spot, which used some of the same images as Clinton's original commercial, never aired anywhere except in news stories, according to CMAG.
Similarly, an Obama spot that taunted McCain for owning seven houses appeared briefly in paid spots on cable TV, but received coverage on TV and in newspapers.
Ghost political ads have a long and colorful history, and have often had an impact on perceptions of a political race, says the University of Wisconsin's Goldstein. The ads tend to be featured prominently in local TV news stories about campaigns and elections, he says. According to research that Goldstein directed, nearly one-third of TV stories about senatorial races in 2006 mentioned advertising, and about 20 percent of stories about gubernatorial races did so.
He notes that the Democrats' famous "Daisy" commercial -- which raised doubts about Lyndon Johnson's opponent, Barry Goldwater, by using the image of a little girl picking petals off a daisy to evoke the countdown to nuclear war -- ran just once as a paid commercial during the 1964 race. Thanks to massive publicity about it, "Daisy" remains perhaps the most famous, and infamous, political ad of all time.
In 2004, an independent group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth bought airtime in a handful of markets to run commercials questioning Democratic nominee John Kerry's truthfulness and fitness for office. The subsequent media coverage was so heavy -- particularly on cable TV -- that Kerry had to defend himself against the onslaught.
Tracey says vapor ads may be increasing in frequency due to the rise of YouTube and the proliferation of political blogs. Before they were around, it was more difficult for a campaign to persuade reporters to do stories on a new ad until it was in wide circulation, he says. But nowadays, Tracey says, the ad is on the Internet somewhere almost as soon as a candidate announces it, providing an immediate justification for making a news story out of what is little more than a video press release.
"Ten years ago, this was the number one sin between journalists and the campaign," he says. "No one [in the media] wanted to be seen as taking the campaign's bait. Now there's a willingness on the part of both parties to use and be used. There's a much bigger appetite to accept this kind of content."
Advertising experts say that viewers typically remember a TV commercial only after they've been exposed to it repeatedly, typically 10 or 12 times. But even though ghost ads don't come close to that kind of saturation, they are valuable to a campaign for other reasons. Tracey says such ads don't disrupt the candidate's primary advertising campaign but enable him to muddy his opponent's message or image. McCain's "Troops" helped McCain shift attention away from the stirring images of Obama addressing hundreds of thousands of people at a rally in Germany.
TV stations that air the ads as news "end up making the campaign's point for them, with exactly the words and pictures" the campaign wants, he adds. "The campaign is getting a willing partner in the media because [the media is] filling in the rest of the story for them."
But the news media's willingness to turn over airtime for such unfiltered messages troubles some journalists. "Reporters and news executives fall for this every time," says Brooks Jackson, a veteran political reporter who runs the Annenberg Center's FactCheck.org, which vets political speeches and other campaign statements. He says the ads' flashy images and inflammatory rhetoric make them "irresistible" to TV stations.
"When [the campaigns] tell people that an ad is going to be seen and talked about by everyone, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy" when stations put it on the air, Jackson says. With YouTube and such popular Web sites as Drudge.com, however, "the gatekeeper function that the news media executives used to perform is long gone."
At the very least, Jackson says, the news media should be "pushing back" by sorting out what's true and what's false in the ads.
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September 11, 2008 Thursday
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What's the Pig Deal?;
With a phony flap and a misleading attack ad, the McCain campaign sinks into silliness.
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IT'S HARD to think of a presidential campaign with a wider chasm between the seriousness of the issues confronting the country and the triviality, so far anyway, of the political discourse. On a day when the Congressional Budget Office warned of looming deficits and a grim economic outlook, when the stock market faltered even in the wake of the government's rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, when President Bush discussed the road ahead in Iraq and Afghanistan, on what did the campaign of Sen. John McCain spend its energy? A conference call to denounce Sen. Barack Obama for using the phrase "lipstick on a pig" and a new television ad accusing the Democrat of wanting to teach kindergartners about sex before they learn to read.
Mr. Obama's supposedly offending remark was not only not offensive -- it also was not directed at Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. "The other side, suddenly, they're saying 'we're for change too,' " Mr. Obama said. "You can put lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig." With a woman on the ticket, apparently all references to cosmetics -- or pork of the non-bridge variety, for that matter -- are forbidden. "Sen. Obama owes Gov. Palin an apology," sniffed former Massachusetts governor Jane Swift. "Calling a very prominent female governor of one of our states a pig is not exactly what we want to see." No matter that Mr. McCain used the lipstick-on-a-pig phrase himself, referring to (female) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's health-care plan, or that (female) former McCain aide Torie Clarke wrote a book with that title. In the heat of a campaign, operatives will pounce on any misstep and play to the referees over any arguable foul. We understand that, and certainly the Obama campaign has not been above such tactics. But this cynical use of the gender card is unusually silly.
The kindergarten sex ad, exhuming an argument that Republican Alan Keyes used against Mr. Obama in his 2004 Senate race, was equally ridiculous. "Obama's one accomplishment?" the narrator asks. "Legislation to teach 'comprehensive sex education' -- to kindergartners. Learning about sex before learning to read? Barack Obama: wrong on education. Wrong for your family." As a state senator, Mr. Obama voted for -- though he did not sponsor -- a measure that set out standards for non-mandatory sex and health education. It required that instruction be "age and developmentally appropriate" and allowed parents to have their children opt out. To call this an accomplishment seems a departure for a campaign that was insisting just last week that Mr. Obama had no legislation to his credit, conveniently ignoring his significant work on a lobbying reform bill. Mr. Obama's support for the Illinois measure seems both reasonable and relatively unimportant.
John McCain is a serious man who promised to wage a serious campaign. Win or lose, will he be able to look back on this one with pride? Right now, it's hard to see how.
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September 11, 2008 Thursday
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She's the Star the GOP Hitched Its Bandwagon To
BYLINE: Kevin Merida; Washington Post Staff Writer
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After weeks of mocking Barack Obama as a famous man and that's all, the McCain campaign now has its own celebrity to promote: Sarah Palin, the sudden sensation.
Mad love from the public is always welcome, in politics and entertainment, but the McCain campaign seems to have come to this notion slowly. With the hordes gravitating to Obama in record numbers, Rick Davis, John McCain's campaign manager, penned a memo on July 30 that said: "Barack Obama is the biggest celebrity in the world, comparable to Tom Cruise, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton."
The memo took aim at his gym habits, and the protein bars he eats, and the organic tea he drinks, and went on to say his celebrity status had "fueled a certain arrogance." Concerned that Obama was out of reach, flying at an altitude of 50,000 feet or something, the McCain campaign was determined to bring him down closer to where they could battle him. The campaign ran an ad trying to tie him to Britney and Paris, first-name celebrities known for getting in mindless trouble or doing nothing. The ad's kicker: "But is he ready to lead?"
So much for the dissing of celebrity. Now it's Sarah Palin, a former small-town mayor with 21 months as governor, who is being followed like a rock star. And McCain aides love it. "Entertainment Tonight" was among the media contingents traveling to Alaska with her. She's on the cover of People, Us Weekly and OK! magazines. Her overall favorable rating is about even with McCain and Obama at 58 percent, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. And some demographic segments of the population swoon over her even more. Among white women with children at home, her approval rating is 80 percent. Women have been coming into their local eyewear shops asking for those Palin glasses with the silver temple pieces.
And so it was that people pressed against each other to catch a glimpse of her, even from afar, at yesterday's McCain-Palin rally at Van Dyck Park in Fairfax City, an elaborate showcase for the Alaska governor's own brand of instant celebrity. It wasn't exactly Obama in Berlin or at Denver's Invesco Field, where the Democratic nominee drew unbelievable crowds and the contempt of his Republican opponents for being, well, extremely popular. But it was, by the yardstick of the Republican quest for the presidency, something extraordinary to see. So much so, that the McCain campaign hierarchy is now considering keeping the nominee and her running mate stumping together as a tag team.
The lines to gaze upon Sarah Palin formed early and stretched for more than a mile along Old Lee Highway, as thousands and thousands made their way to the park's grassy hills, and chanted over and over: "Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!" Parents ditched work, and kids skipped school, and the souvenir hawkers did a brisk business working the lines with buttons like: "Hot chicks vote Republican." Many came by foot, many others by shuttle bus from a nearby mall. The size of the crowd was difficult to determine. Police and the McCain campaign estimated it at 23,000.
Celebrity is its own momentum. "It was so cool watching all the people get in line," said Vicki Hoffman, an artist who lives in the neighborhood. "It was like Woodstock."
Those who came were there to take their own measure of the collage of Palin images they had embraced from a distance: hockey mom, field dresser of moose, grandmother-in-waiting, champion of social conservatives, battler of good ol' boy Republicans, historic running mate. Here was a composite version of stardom they could get behind.
"She exemplifies what a genuine feminist is," said Elizabeth Hauris, who owns a company that manufactures cloth diapers. "She's pro-life, pro-family, nurses her son, carries him in a sling, which epitomizes the idea of close attachment." Hauris said she has seen photos of Palin signing bills, baby Trig in tow. "And that thrills me."
Celebrity does not require any special skill -- except to be. Who can say with precision what it is that inspires some to squeal and moan and be moved beyond rationality? Like the man in the camouflage raincoat who stood on the hill with his homemade sign: "Sarah! Will You Marry Me!"
Ann Norman, 21, and her University of Virginia "girls" drove from Charlottesville to Fairfax on Tuesday night, stayed with her cousin, woke up at 4:30 a.m. -- the rally didn't start until 10 -- and were first in line at 5. "We heard there were thousands of people turned away, and we were determined that would not be us," said Norman, a junior.
"We're skipping all of our classes," said fellow junior Lucy Partain. "Don't tell my parents."
"We talk about her every day," said Molly Newcomb, who is majoring in government with a minor in media studies.
"We can't stop talking about her," said Partain, 20.
But why?
"I love that she is a mother, wife and a politician," Partain continued. "That's very admirable. She's not a career politician who's been affected by the Washington games."
Sarah Palin the celebrity?
"It's a different kind of celebrity," said Partain. "She's doing her thing and people are flocking to her."
Her thing, at least onstage, was mostly a support role -- pumping up John McCain. Talking about cutting property taxes as mayor in Wasilla and putting the state's checkbook online as governor wasn't sexy celebrity stuff.
But the crowd was crazy over her. Iris Burkart and the ladies who do Jazzercise together gave up their class for her. "And that's huge," said Beckette Helson, who calls herself "a professional mom."
The ladies also pondered the meaning of celebrity.
"It all depends on how you categorize celebrity," said Burkart, a Loudoun County real estate agent. If you're talking about the most notable, recognizable figures in the world right now, she'd have to say Obama and McCain. But if you're talking about dreamy, larger-than-life, would-love-to-sit-down-to-dinner-with figures, there's only one at the top.
"Sean Connery," said Burkart. "At my age, sweetheart, that's who we go for."
When the rally was over and rope lines had been worked and the motorcade assembled for the drive out of the park, the hordes flocked to Old Lee Highway to get a look at McCain and Palin pulling out of town. The Straight Talk Express bus rumbled slowly down the street, which was lined with picture takers and kids who had climbed trees for a better vantage point. And then the bus stopped, and McCain and Palin got out and went into the crowd. Some pushed to get closer. Others got up on the wooden fences, trying to balance themselves to get a peek.
Brooke Ramos, 18, being home-schooled by her mother, the first year she can vote, just happened to be at the spot where the Straight Talk stopped. After shaking Palin's hand, she just stood shaking, shrieking, dancing in place. She couldn't believe she had touched Sarah Palin. It was as if she had touched a real celebrity, someone like Christian pop-rock star Rebecca St. James, and out burst that time-tested declaration of mad love:
"I'm not going to wash this hand!"
LOAD-DATE: September 11, 2008
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DISTRIBUTION: Maryland
GRAPHIC: IMAGE; By Jason Reed -- Reuters; Admirers at the feet of Sarah Palin. "It's a different kind of celebrity," said one. "She's doing her thing and people are flocking to her."
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The Washington Post
September 11, 2008 Thursday
Every Edition
Virginians Fasten Seat Belts as Obama, McCain Dig In
BYLINE: Tim Craig; Washington Post Staff Writer
SECTION: EXTRAS; Pg. LZ04
LENGTH: 888 words
RICHMOND
Afew months ago, many Republicans were predicting that Virginia's status as a battleground state in the presidential election would be a summer sensation that would quickly fade after Labor Day.
Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) would pull his resources from the state after realizing it would, once again, be reliably red on Election Day.
Privately, some Democrats agreed, pointing to the decision by Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) four years ago to abandon Virginia after his state poll numbers failed to move following his party's nominating convention.
But Labor Day has come and gone. And, if anything, the battle over Virginia's 13 electoral votes is getting hotter. Obama and GOP presidential nominee John McCain, the Arizona senator, are spending time and money in Virginia in ways the commonwealth hasn't seen in a generation.
As both candidates prepare for the final two months leading up to the Nov. 4 election, residents should prepare for a campaign that could resemble some of the state's fiercest contests for governor or U.S. senator.
A lot can still change, but it's looking increasingly likely that the presidential contest in Virginia could soon rival some of Virginia's great modern campaigns, including the 2006 race between Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) and former senator George Allen and the 1994 contest between Republican Oliver North and former senator Charles Robb (D).
Many Republicans and Democrats say McCain is favored to win Virginia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964. But few doubt that winning Virginia has become a top priority for Obama, adding an element of uncertainty to the race.
Obama has been making a strong push for Virginia since midsummer, when he began launching TV ads statewide and started opening 41 offices across the state.
Obama, backed by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and U.S. Senate candidate Mark R. Warner (D), also made several visits to the state before the Democratic National Convention. The visits have continued since the convention.
He also has amassed thousands of volunteers in Virginia, and on any given day his Web site lists dozens of voter registration, canvassing or get-out-the vote activities.
McCain has been slower to engage in Virginia. But that is starting to change.
Shortly before the GOP convention, McCain began airing TV ads on broadcast stations statewide, reversing his earlier decision only to advertise in the Washington media market, where his ads would be seen by political journalists and pundits.
And although he has been to Richmond and Northern Virginia for fundraisers, McCain was scheduled to make his first official campaign stop in the state yesterday with a rally in Fairfax City.
His advisers say he'll be back, and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, is expected to appear next week in Virginia Beach.
Not wanting to be overshadowed by McCain, Obama's campaign on Tuesday announced that he, too, would be campaigning in Virginia yesterday.
Obama scheduled an event at a school in Norfolk to discuss his educational policy. Obama's visit to Norfolk followed a stop Tuesday in Southwest Virginia. This week marks the second time in a month that Obama has spent two consecutive days in Virginia.
The candidates' visits and ads are only part of the story. Out of public view, both campaigns are fighting for any attention they can get in the local media through surrogates and daily events.
On Monday, former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore and Del. Christopher B. Saxman (R-Staunton), co-chairs of McCain's Virginia campaign, held a conference call with Virginia reporters to discuss why they don't think Obama can win the state.
On Tuesday, U.S. senators Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) held a news conference in Arlington County to outline their views on why McCain and Palin are too conservative for voters in Northern Virginia.
The Obama campaign announced the noon news conference at 7 a.m., a possible sign that it was organized at the last minute.
Three hours later -- in an e-mail marked urgent -- the McCain campaign announced it was having a conference call for Virginia reporters that would feature U.S. Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R). Bolling and Warner talked about why they think Virginia voters will reject Obama on Nov. 4.
The presidential election is overshadowing the U.S. Senate race between Warner and his Republican opponent, former governor James S. Gilmore III, as well as the congressional races. After he picked up the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police on Monday, Warner spent a few minutes taking questions from reporters.
Three out of four questions were about the presidential race.
All the attention on Virginia is resulting in increasing acrimony between partisans, as evidenced by the uproar this week over whether McCain should be allowed to hold a rally at Fairfax High School.
After it was reported that the rally would be in violation of school policies prohibiting political events during school hours, dozens of angry parents phoned local, state and school officials. Some students and teachers at the Fairfax school began talking of walking out of class in protest.
All this, and it's only mid-September.
If the polls show a close race heading into next month, Virginia voters should get ready for a very bumpy ride.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 11, 2008 Thursday 12:00 PM EST
Potomac Confidential;
Washington's Hour of Talk Power
BYLINE: Marc Fisher, Post Metro Columnist, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 8889 words
HIGHLIGHT: Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Potomac Confidential fills the midday lull with discussion by Metro columnist Marc Fisher who looks at the latest news with a rigorous slicing and dicing of the issues that define who we are and where we live.
Fisher was online Thursday, Sept. 11.
The transcript follows.
Check out Marc's blog, Raw Fisher.
Archives: Discussion Transcripts
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Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, folks. Huge response to today's column on the Sarah Palin phenomenon and the reaction to her by women at yesterday's rally in Fairfax. We'll dive right into that and probably spend a good chunk of the hour on the political and cultural shift that Palin's candidacy represents.
But of course there's much more on the agenda, and I hope to get to some other issues too. The end of the four-decade-long Carol Schwartz era in D.C. politics is a symbol of new energy in the Republican party, especially among young people, who are in many cases recent arrivals to the District and who have generally not gotten involved in local politics in the past. The move by Congress this week to strip the District of its right to write its own gun laws is both a gun rights question and a home rule debate, and that latter piece appears to be largely ignored in the discussions on the Hill.
On to your many comments and questions, but first, let's call the Yay and Nay of the Day:
Yay to the three-judge panel in the Anne Arundel County Circuit Court that yesterday declared the ballot language on this fall's Maryland slots vote to be misleading. Unfortunately, the court ordered only that a single word on the ballot question be changed, making clear that the purpose of adding slots casinos to the state is not strictly to raise money for schools, but that that is only a "primary" purpose. Even that is misleading, since the majority of the money will go not to schools but to line the pockets of casino operators and to prop up the state's crumbling horse industry. But at least the court made it clear that the state was trying to pull a fast one on voters.
Nay to the congressional Democrats who preach their allegiance to home rule for the District, and now turn around and sponsor a bill that would strip the city of the right to decide on its own way to rework its gun laws to conform with this summer's Supreme Court ruling striking down the city's gun ban.
Your turn starts right now....
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Arlington, Va.: Palin does inject youth and energy into the campaign. That said, I fail to understand -- and am a little embarrassed by -- the lack of critical thinking about how well she may serve as the vice president of the United States, not to mention how she would perform as the president of the United States! Yes, she is energetic, has a backbone, can deliver a sound-byte, etc, but does she know enough to be able to interact credibly on the world stage? How well does she understand the issues of the day? This contest has the disturbing feel of a high school contest for class president -- she isn't being tasked with putting together the senior prom! She is being asked to help steer one of the largest economies in the world. At this point we know very little about whether she is up to the job. I don't think it is unfair to ask her to face some hard questions and evaluate how well she does. Folks seem to think this is an unreasonable request. I honestly don't get it.
Marc Fisher: I agree that there's nothing unfair about asking hard questions, but obviously the Republican campaign strategists have decided to run against the media and the whole concept of experience and the broad base of knowledge that holding national office implies. It is fruitless for the Democrats to insist solely that a campaign be about the so-called issues, both because campaigns are never strictly about issues, and because this is, as I argue in today's column, a new twist on American politics, a ratcheting up of the idea that personal and group affinities are more important than expertise or experience. Sure, the Democrats and responsible Republicans should have it out on the issues and policies of the day, but the Democrats also need to engage in the place where they are uncomfortable--on the matter of how much Americans feel not only empathy, but a sense of shared lives and experiences, which is the key to Palin's appeal.
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Were any of the moms Independents or Dems before the Palin choice?: Marc, how many of the women you interviewed at the rally were undecided/independents/Democrats that were swayed to McCain after the Palin choice, versus how many were already McCain supporters? Personally, I admire Palin, but won't vote for her due to her beliefs. Were these moms already Republican voters, or did her "working mom" identity trump any particular issue?
Marc Fisher: Obviously a rally like yesterday's draws mostly hard-core supporters. But I was surprised by how many people I spoke to -- especially women -- who had been anywhere from lukewarm to actively antagonistic to McCain before the Palin pick. And there were many independents and Democrats (funny how so many people continue to call themselves Democrats and when I ask them when they last voted for a Dem for president, they have to reach back to Carter or McGovern) as well, including quite a few people who had been surprised to find themselves leaning to or supporting Hillary Clinton and now are fascinated by Palin.
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Midlothian, Va.: I'm disturbed by your conclusion that Palin is the choice of working moms, based on interviews with people who, remarkably, took time out of their working day to go see her. Most working moms were actually at work during Palin and McCain's rally yesterday. That people at a Palin rally said they support Palin isn't a surprise. I would have preferred an survey of the women I see every night at the grocery store about 6:00 p.m., picking up last minute groceries on the way home from work. Your survey is the equivalent of asking people at a Miley Cyrus concert if they're fans of Hannah Montana. I'm just a few years older than Palin, with two teenagers. I've worked continually since I was 17 and I can't think of a woman who less represents me than Sarah Palin. She's Bush in heels.
Marc Fisher: Good point -- of course the crowd at a rally for any candidate is wildly skewed, but that makes it a great place to try to delve into why people are showing the level of support and commitment that they are. Separately, I spent a chunk of time in some western Fairfax neighborhoods talking to random voters, quite a few of whom were in the process of making the Hillary to Palin switch, and that informed my thinking about the whole larger Palin phenomenon.
I can't agree that she's Bush in heels: Bush was an early version of what Palin represents. But remember that while he sort of admitted to having had drinking problems earlier in life, he wouldn't touch questions about drugs, draft-dodging or any other imperfections. Whereas Palin seems to want to make her family's troubles a cornerstone of her identity and candidacy -- that represents an emotional availability that lends itself to our national voyeurism, which is fed constantly by the pop culture of the web and the rest of the entertainment-information industry.
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Arlington, Va.: Apropos of your piece today, I was reminded of Peggy Noonan's now famous faux pas in which she complained that the selection involved the choice of "narrative" over substance. I can see how some women might see their experiences reflected in the Palin story, but do we really want a VP who, going into her second week as the nominee, has yet to face a hard question personally?
Marc Fisher: Depends on who the "we" is in your question. Not to be Clintonian in my response, but we really are a divided culture in some ways, and while most people share a dislike of political truth-shading and squishy principles, there are some who take refuge in the world of issues and policies and others who judge politicians according to how closely they seem to be attached to normal lives. At the top of national politics, it's very rare to find someone who lives "just like us," to use the phrase I heard so many people utter at the McCain-Palin rally. So Palin seems a startlingly different character, and as I argue in today's column, she's especially attractive because she fits in with so much of how our society has been changing -- we're in a phase where all authority and expertise and experience is suspect, where anyone can do anything on the web, where one anonymous voice can be taken as seriously as the voice of someone who has studied something for decades. It's a terrifically fascinating moment in the evolution of the culture, and Palin comes along to represent that hyperdemocracy concept just beautifully.
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washingtonpost.com: Marc's column today: For Working Moms, 'Flawed' Palin Is the Perfect Choice (The Washington Post, Sept. 11, 2008)
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Shaftsburg, Mich.: Marc Fisher, do you ever consider that many of us are insulted by your oft demonstrated, and flawed, urban-centric contempt for heartland folkways, mores, and family values?
Marc Fisher: I guess you are the "many." I don't buy the concept that urban values and heartland values are in opposition, nor do I see much difference, except in purely stylistic ways, in how urban and rural residents think about or care for family. There are certainly strong class differences in this society, and we tend to gloss over them, but you're right that they're coming out in this election in a very visible way. I hear that in the contempt with which some liberals talk about Palin, and in the defensiveness that some conservatives show about her inexperience and lack of knowledge. That's why this is the most fascinating election since 1968.
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Jessup, Md.: If I were your editor, you would be gone and out the door, take your stuff with you. The kind of reporting in your article about Palin makes my skin crawl. We live in an age where Republicans script out anything the candidate says and then sell a personal image in a controlled environment. Either you are a Republican or you are extremely naive about how Palin has "capitivated" her believers. The role of the press shouldn't be to do superficial analysis that just puts a postivistic spin on what happens.
Marc Fisher: Wow -- just when I'm hearing from Republicans that I've dissed their candidate and have twisted Sarah Palin's genuine appeal into a statement of American anti-intellectualism, now you come along to argue that I'm somehow following a Republican script. We do indeed sometimes dwell in different realities in this land.
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NO to Palin: The only thing she shares with me, or Hillary Clinton, is a chromosome. No woman, working or not, that I know likes her. She is a joke. Furthermore, most of us have working husbands too. And many men and women are struggling to make ends meet. Represents real women? NO. Represents a common type of woman? NO. She doesn't have the education or the judgment or the knowledge or even the common sense to be president. It does not matter if she would be fun to work with on a PTA project. She is NOT qualified to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. She is not qualified to tell me -- or anyone -- that I must not have an abortion. She is not qualified to push an obviously failed policy of abstinence! She is not qualified to meet with foreign leaders. She does not support special needs children or families and would not, has not, spent one dime to help them. This was cynical, cold, tokenism by McCain. This is disrespecting our country at a supreme level. Honestly, we do not need trivial articles like this. We need real reporting about how these woman, and others, would respond to facts about her true actions with the Bridge to Nowhere and her belief in the Iraq war and the end times, and how can she approach dealing with real complex multi-cultural urban problems? Be a real reporter, for the country's sake, don't be a panderer. I'm so disappointed in you.
Marc Fisher: I hear your apoplectic rage about the Palin phenomenon from a lot of liberal women (and men). I keep hearing from Hillary supporters who think it's absolutely outrageous that any feminist would flip over to or be remotely attracted by Palin. But if you had been with me at the rally, you would have taken a step back as you heard women who created their own businesses and who very much believe that women get a raw deal in this society arguing that Palin's story is their story, and that Palin's trumpeting of her ability to balance family and work is every bit as important a feminist statement as Hillary Clinton's talk about cracking up the glass ceiling.
But how can such women be for someone who is anti-abortion and a social conservative and so on? In most of my conversations with the Clinton-to-Palin switchers, their conclusion -- quite reasonably given the last three decades of American history -- is that abortion is largely a dead issue, that with an enormous percentage of Americans in support of at least some form of abortion rights, and with 20 years of Reagan/Bush/Bush presidencies essentially just paying lip service to their fundamentalist Christian base on the issue of abortion, the right seems fixed. Maybe they're wrong, but that's their reading of the situation. And they are, as I've said here several times, driven far more by personality and character than by issues.
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Logan North, D.C.: In his op-ed column today, David Broder pontificates that "What we know is that the American people take the choice of a new president very seriously." In your column today, you posit that a not insignificant number of Americans may be treating the presidential race as an enhanced reality show competition. Do you agree with Broder that the people you encountered yesterday are taking the race "very seriously?" While I'd like to believe Broder, much of what I see in media coverage (particularly on cable TV and small-town newspapers in "battleground" states) tends to make me support your reality show hypothesis, cynical as it may be.
Marc Fisher: Not just because I revere David Broder, but because I really think it's true, my answer is that both of us are right. I ran into very few reflexive McCain-Palin supporters at yesterday's rally -- of course, there are dyed in the wool Republicans who were there because that's their party and they believe in its principles or have spent their lives working for its candidates. But far more frequently, my conversations were with people who were taking this choice very seriously, and who really dislike Bush and the war, and who had surprised themselves by being very much attracted to either Hillary Clinton or Obama back last spring, but who have been moving over to the R side, either because they fear that only the Republicans will protect us from terrorism -- an issue on which the Democrats still don't make an emotionally convincing case -- or because they see something that connects in Sarah Palin.
I have rarely been at a political rally where the crowd was so lukewarm about the man at the top of the ticket. The number of people who, after hearing Palin, walked out on McCain was just stunning.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Dear Marc, as a Washington area "working mom," I read your piece in the Metro section with interest. Alas, I must beg to differ that Palin (or McCain) represent a "perfect choice." While it is admirable that Sarah Palin has achieved so much while raising a family, I cannot in good conscience embrace the candidacy. The campaign has to this point offered its audiences a diet of half-truths and untruths: as the WP has shown, the Bridge to Nowhere story is a story. Further, the failure of the campaign to show integrity by not crying wolf on sexism at every (ridiculous) turn is depressing to anyone who has seen real sexism. I choose integrity and honesty as values greater than power -- but I don't see that in this campaign. A women interviewed in your piece said that Palin "is a statement that anyone can make it if he or she really tries" -- Maybe that should have read, "...if he or she really lies." Thanks for letting this frustrated "working mom" have her say.
Marc Fisher: Thanks for the venting -- the trick for the Democrats will be to find a way to translate frustration such as yours into a message that hits home with the same kind of emotional wallop as Palin conveys, or as Obama communicated last spring. Instead, we see a strangely emotionally constricted Obama all of a sudden, as if he doesn't know how to respond.
Yesterday, I spoke to an Obama strategist who argued that the Palin phenomenon is a passing phase, "a honeymoon that won't last more than a couple of weeks," he said. I think he couldn't be more wrong and if his view represents that of the Obama camp broadly, then they are toast.
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Alexandria, Va.: I think it is strange that you feign surprise that the American public exhibiting a strange new attraction to a populist candidate, and suggest that throughout our history Americans have always preferred politicians from elite backgrounds. Geez. You don't really think that. Have you read of Reagan's upbringing? Wasn't Carter a peanut farmer? Wasn't Clinton raised by a single mom in small town Arkansas? Wasn't Nixon from humble roots? Truman? Lincoln? Umm, didn't we start this at least as far back as Andrew Jackson?
Marc Fisher: Populism is a grand and essential tradition in American politics, and I'm pretty much a sucker for it myself. But what's different about the Palin phenomenon is that it takes a big step beyond the tradition of populism, at least as it has evolved in the past century. Our greatest populists come right out of the elite, whether it's Pat Buchanan on the right (upper Northwest D.C. kid who goes to fancy schools and is right at home with the Eastern liberal media elite) or Norman Thomas on the left (a Princeton man through and through). Reagan was a Hollywood idol. Carter a millionaire and Naval Academy wonk -- a nuclear scientist! We like our populists well-bred in this country, and there's nothing wrong with that. Palin's is a very different biography -- yes, perhaps more like an Andrew Jackson in some ways, but he was an accomplished general long before he opened the White House to the riff-raff.
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Fairfax County, Va.: Dear Marc, I was fascinated by your reporting about voter responses to Sarah Palin. Locally, I am finding many Democrats (especially women) passionately opposed to her. She is a real lightning rod both for and against.
I would take the literal words of her supporters with a grain of salt, though. I think they just connect with her so strongly that they will say what seem like illogical things (defiantly praising her lack of knowledge, for example) because they don't want to be drawn into a debate. If a news report came out tomorrow that she had aced every class she ever took and also secretly served as our envoy to Russia, they'd be more than happy to tout those accomplishments.
It seems to me more like infatuation and a resulting "don't confuse me with the facts" attitude, than actual hostility to talent, achievement, or knowledge. Not that infatuation is so great either.
Marc Fisher: Excellent point, and I'm sure that in many cases you're right. But there is a point of pride that many people now take in their separation from authoritative information, in their skepticism or outright rejection of anything that comes from academia, the media or any other previously respected source. And the Republicans are tapping into this quite brilliantly.
The spectacle yesterday of seeing millionaire Fred Thompson, who lives in Fairfax, talking up millionaire John McCain, who lives in northern Virginia, to a crowd of people who live in houses and communities vastly more affluent than most American neighborhoods, and then egging this crowd on to bash bureaucrats (which many of them are) and to laugh uproariously at "the brie and chablis crowd" (which many of them are), and to then see that crowd laugh and shout along with Thompson, was just amazing.
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Arlington, Va.: While you were wandering the rally and Fairfax, did you get any vibes about how people there, mostly true believers, are reacting to Jim Gilmore and the replacement of Tom Davis?
Marc Fisher: Tom Davis was the emcee at yesterday's rally, and he dutifully introduced Jim Gilmore -- the former Virginia governor now running for the U.S. Senate, a position that Davis had very much wanted for himself -- and left it at that. Other Republican officeholders got more effusive intros and congressman Frank Wolf got to speak to the crowd, but Gilmore got squat.
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Alexandria, Va.: Your column today highlighted the "just like us" sentiment that seems to be attracting people to Palin. You seem to dismiss this, arguing that out best leaders aren't like us, but are more educated, experienced, etc. I wonder if you thought the same way when a realatively unknown southern governor told us: "I feel your pain." It's the same story now, it's just coming from a different perspective.
Marc Fisher: It's all a continuum -- from Clinton's supreme ability to convey empathy, to George Bush's presentation as a regular guy compared to stiff Al Gore, and now to Palin, who, as several women I talked to put it, "doesn't just understand our lives, but actually lives our lives." And I think you have to look at this in the context of the rest of the culture -- of reality TV, and the culture of the web, and the decline of fact-based institutions such as newspapers, TV news, the teaching profession, the whole concept of expertise...
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Cubefarm, DC: Marc,
My husband and I are from the heartland, now living in the District. I have to say that we both enjoyed your article today -- it did speak more to how (in our opinion) the women in flyover country would perceive Palin. It's one thing to talk to the people contributing to this chat (ahem); they will most likely be at odds with her and her beliefs. However, it's another to talk to miliary wives (as you have previously) and the women at the rallies. I think it was a good way for people within the Beltway to get a glimpse at the true national debate, which has little in common with the one presented to us on the nightly news.
And for the record, I say this as a die-hard Democrat.
Marc Fisher: Thanks -- one of the joys of my job is that I get to travel back and forth between those various worlds, and somehow I'm still always amazed by our ability to wall ourselves off into communities of like-thinking people, to the extent that we truly find it hard to believe that people with opposing world views exist or might even be rational and thoughtful and good-hearted folks.
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Washington, D.C.: As someone who spent about 20 years in Fairfax County and about five years in Arlington and D.C., I can say that Fairfax is nowhere as Democratic or liberal as Arlington or D.C. I feel like the Post keeps painting it as on the verge of becoming another Arlington which is crazy. Instead I see a tradition of moderation in who Fairfax elects. Kaine and Webb and Connolly are all pretty moderate Democrats. I don't think anyone saw Tom Davis or Frank Wolf as ideologues. I don't think Fairfax has ever shown itself in the past 25 years to be particularly partisan one way or the other. To the extent Republicans have done poorly it is because they ran someone on the far right. That's why I think McCain has a pretty good shot there.
Marc Fisher: Excellent post -- and yes, Fairfax is a much more mixed bag than easily stereotyped places such as Arlington, Alexandria or the District. Just at yesterday's rally, you had hard-core Christian conservatives who are the backbone of Sen. Ken Cuccinelli's support in western Fairfax, and liberal Republicans, including many federal workers, who think it's just a shame that Rep. Tom Davis is essentially being drummed out of his own party, and lots of much more apolitical people in between, people who are perfectly willing to vote for a Democrat who they believe shares their values, a Jim Webb or a Mark Warner. But you're right -- that does not remotely make those voters automatic Barack Obama voters. They need to be persuaded, and interestingly enough, they're willing to be persuaded.
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Annapolis, Md.: I don't have a question, just a comment because I could go on and on about McCain's blatantly obvious pandering but I will only point out his campaigns one of many hypocritical points to ignore experience as an issue for being POTUS or VP. As a proud, first-generation University of MD grad. and working mother, I believe one of the requirements of being elected POTUS (anyone can run) should be demonstrating intellectual ability whether it's at Harvard, the Naval Academy, or Univ. of Idaho. Graduating near the bottom of your class and not traveling out of the country (especially when you govern so close to a foreign country) are indications of the dullards the Republican party keeps pushing on to this country.
Marc Fisher: Well, I'm not about to argue for the benefits of hiring lousy students to do tough jobs, but the historical record is muddier than most of us would like it to be on this point. Truly awful or careless or unstudious students have been among our best and most popular presidents, and among our worst and least popular presidents.
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Olney, Md.: Have you noticed that almost all your questioners are Democratic supporters who use catastrophic language about someone with whom they disagree? Thank you for being right down the middle and factual.
Now here is my partisan opinion: When Sen. Clinton was running for office, her supporters and the press in general often talked about the importance of her being the first female to run for president and that it was earth-shattering and the main reason to vote for her. When it is now about Sarah Palin, much of the press and "women's" groups suddenly say it's liberal issues that should be the reason to not support her. They are hypocrites, if you ask me. At least you don't say it either way.
Marc Fisher: No, I don't see that -- I haven't counted, but I'm seeing a decent mix of views here on today's chat. It's certainly true that the readership on this site is probably more liberal than average, but it would be a big mistake to assume that ours is a predominantly liberal, Democratic readership, because it just is not, and that's borne out both by reader surveys and by the experience here on the chat and on our comment boards.
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McLean, Va.: Given the celebrity flavor of national politics, why not do away with debates ad have the candidates compete on a special election season of American Idol this fall?
If you insist on having candidate debates, I think the only choice for debate moderator should be Jerry Springer.
Marc Fisher: Politics and pop culture have been moving inexorably toward one another for half a century and this cycle, they've taken an extra big step closer.
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WV: You're at a rally. FOR the Republican ticket. Did you really expect to run into women who did not support Palin? As a white woman, working mom, one of the supposedly "captivated", I am NOT. I am appalled at McCain's choice. She does not represent any of my interests, or my life. This is not apopleptic liberal rage. I used to admire McCain. I started worrying about him after he seemed to cave to Bush (Rove's) ways, but I still had respect for him. Until now. His choice says he cares little about my concerns, and his judgement is surely questionable.
Marc Fisher: No, as I said above, obviously a rally presents a highly skewed slice of the population. But every rally presents a grand opportunity to explore why people feel as strongly as they do, and to discover what it is that drives people to hold the positions they do and to associate with the people they've chosen to be with.
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Cap Hill, DC: Marc,
I don't want the president to be an average American. I want him/her to be really smart, well-educated, knowledgable of the world and to have demonstrated good judgement. Apparently those are fatal flaws these days.
Marc Fisher: The good news is that both parties this year chose their best candidate; very few people seem to agree with me on this, but I think this is the best choice Americans have been given in several decades. Vice presidential picks and cynical campaign strategies aside (yes, I know, that's a lot to put aside), the two presidential candidates are everything you seek--smart, knowledgeable, interesting blends of maverick and traditional politician.
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Herndon, Va.: I am a Democrat for Palin (and woman!) and note that she has more executive experience than the two Washington lawyers atop the Dem ticket and McCain combined.
It's insulting to say that being on City Council, Mayor, and Governor of a State with all foreign borders is not "experience." In what universe? The nation is made up towns, cities and states!
But then again, you won't print my comment... you are only printing the anti-Palin ones for the most part.
Nice journalistic objectivity.
Marc Fisher: Yes, for the 693rd time this year, I fell for the "you won't use my comment" ruse.
I'm a big fan of local government and I believe that experience at the local and state level is far better preparation for the presidency than experience in Congress is. That's why governors have generally made for better presidents than senators. That said, Palin is not exactly experienced in the sense that, say, Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton were.
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Midlothian, Va.: Marc, you misunderstand my comment about Palin being Bush in heels. I'm talking about her political stances, not her personal life. I believe she has completely exploited her children, even while telling the rest of the world to back off them. She guards her family's privacy, until she needs it for political game. But her politics -- that's Bush all the way and it needs to be exploited to demonstrate just how little she is an agent of change.
Marc Fisher: I don't think you can compare Palin's political stands to Bush's in any useful way because most of her positions were either just formed in the last few days or have to be gleaned from the very thin record of her past. I see some very worrisome positions that she's taken in her municipal experience and in her personal life -- do we really want a vice president who inquired into how to ban books from the local schools, or a vice president who believes that creationism ought to be taught in public schools? But Bush had a much more detailed record as governor in Texas at this stage than Palin has in Alaska.
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Arlington, Va.: Serious question here, does democracy work on the national scale? It seems like each election is more and more superficial and based on pre-packaged "reality." Yesterday the major debate seemed to be about the use of the word lipstick (ok for one side, not the other).
I guess I missed when all the problems the country is facing were solved. Did the automatons at the rally have any ideas about those things or were they just too enraptured to see someone "just like them?"
Sigh.
Marc Fisher: Sadly, both parties seem to get away with steering public attention to silly gaffes and gotchas. The entertainers of cable TV news channels eat that stuff up, and judging by the ratings, so do the audiences. But I wouldn't want a campaign to be a policy seminar either. There is in the rough and tumble of a campaign a whole series of demeaning and dumb rituals that do test people and do show us something of their character and their ability to manage crisis and to run an organization. It ain't even close to perfect, but it has its own natural wisdom to it.
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Fairfax County, Va. : Just for curiosity's sake, how ethnically/racially diverse was the crowd you saw yesterday?
Marc Fisher: I saw one black person and two Asians in the crowd. It was the whitest crowd I've been in since the mass of Americans who gathered on the Mall for the Ronald Reagan funeral.
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Boyds, Md.: You said 8,000 attended the McCain-Palin rally. The police estimated 23,000. What counting technique did you use? Did you have help? Why the big difference?
Marc Fisher: I counted the people who were gathered in the natural bowl of the park. The area was fenced in by the Secret Service, so it was relatively easy to count. Any crowd is a moving target, so it's fair to consider a count to be off by, say, 10 percent. I don't know what method the police used for their estimate, but it seems way off to me. I did an actual person by person count, and it took well more than an hour to accomplish. It's probably fair to conclude that the actual number was a bit higher than my count, but to get to the police estimate, people would have had to be stacked.
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Reston, Va.: I attended the McCain-Palin rally yesterday and I'm amazed at your comments regarding the size of the crowd and people leaving after Palin's speech and before McCain's. You say that YOU counted the crowd at 8,000; this is just not credible. How in the world did you do this and what is your experience in estimating crowd size? The police estimated the crowd at 23,000 and they are much more experienced at that task than you are. As far as people leaving before McCain's speech, the only people I saw leaving, and I was standing next to the fenced entrance/exit path, were people with volunteer badges who probably needed to assist in people exiting the Park or hand out signs for people to take home, and those with small children who had been standing for 2-3 hours in the sun. The crowd was at least 50% female many of them teenagers and college-aged and all were orderly, polite and in a happy mood. What a GREAT experience!
Marc Fisher: I've been counting crowds at rallies for about 28 years, and of course that doesn't mean I'm any good at it. But I've covered many rallies at which I was able to compare my counts to those by others, and I'm convinced that I get pretty close, especially when the venue is a controlled space. A moving march, for example, is a much tougher project.
As for the stream of people leaving, that's simply undeniable. The Secret Service guys were joking about it as the crowd poured out during McCain's speech. The cops hadn't even had a chance to take down the barriers they used as people were security-screened on the way in.
But I agree wholeheartedly with you that it was a great and fascinating experience.
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Washington, DC: Marc, Posting early because I just read your article this morning and it struck such a chord with me. I had been trying to glean the attraction of Governor Palin beyond the staunch conservative base who, of course, loves her right wing social and political philosophies. Why, though, would seemingly intelligent independents and even some Democrats have any inclination to support a woman who is likely to argue for extremely conservative Supreme Court judges, opening up public school education to the teaching (or discussion) of creationism, and who is, by any reasonable measure, unqualified for the position of president. Then, your article hit upon a familiar refrain that echoes back to the election (and reelection) of the current president -- that more Americans wanted to have a beer with Bush rather than Gore or Kerry. And because of this sense of sympatico, they voted for the person they most wanted to hang out with, rather than the person most qualified. This scenario was recently effectively ridiculed in the Doonesbury comic strip. Now, Governor Palin has tapped into that same mentality, especially with women and your article highlighted it beautifully.
Marc Fisher: Thanks, but I do think it's more than just wanting to have a beer with the candidate. It really reflects a longing to vote for someone who might understand how much more difficult it has become to make a living, raise a family, and have a sane life and a real community in this country. The longing for someone who might get--and might even have experienced -- those strains is palpable, and for all her imperfections -- indeed, because of those imperfections, Palin appears to many as that sort of person.
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London, UK: Let's not avoid the ugly fact that there is a very good chance the John Mcain will die during his first term. I am an actuary and have the statistics to back me up regarding 72 year old men with a history of cancer. Do you believe that the women cheering for Palin at the rally believe that she can effectively occupy the Oval Office?
In reading her background; I found a frightening amount of inexperience, not only to be the VP, but I also wonder if she was qualified to be the mayor of Wasilla, or dog catcher for that matter.
You've had eight years with an incurious amateur; eight more will completely destroy your country.
Marc Fisher: Nah, the country's pretty tough, it will survive. But contrary to your actuarial tables, we have the sight of McCain's feisty mom at 96. On the other hand, we have the experience of watching Reagan start to lose it in his second term. But memories are short.
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Cheverly Md: Marc,
When do you think the media will get back to reporting about the PRESIDENTIAL election between Obama and McCain? Also with all the attention paid to Palin, does the media feel that it owes equal coverage to Joe Biden?
Marc Fisher: Great question -- not if the Republicans can keep the focus on Palin. Obama's challenge is to reassert himself, but he's been playing it safe of late. That won't win him the election.
A few other topics before we go:
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Maryland: I read this a.m. that the state funding for the improvements in the roads surrounding the new Medical Center in Bethesda has been cut by at least a third by the state. Do you think this will have any effect on the plans? The people who live there must be beside themselves at the news.
Marc Fisher: Lots of areas all around the state will be hit hard by this latest round of budget cuts, and yes, I can certainly imagine that the feds will go ahead with the move of jobs to the Naval Hospital area even if the transportation fixes lag behind.
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Washington, DC: Any chance Carol Schwartz will pull a Lieberman and run as an independent?
I didn't agree with her on every issue, but her constituant services were amazing. She always had her staff address any governmental issues I came to her with. I'm a DCPS teacher, and without her there were a few years where I wouldn't have had textbooks.
Marc Fisher: No, Schwartz is out. The deadline for filing as an independent has passed, so hers would have to be a write-in candidacy, and she told me last night that there will be no such thing. She is finished with politics.
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Non Palin question!: What happened to Carol Schwartz? I'm a Democrat but had a lot of respect for her...
Marc Fisher: She ran into the reality that she hasn't been much of a Republican for a long time and that her support was mainly from D.C. Democrats, so when she finally got an intra-party challenge, she was vulnerable, and the eagerness of the business lobby to get rid of her did the trick.
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Navy Yard, SE D.C.: Marc, I don't support the congressional effort to rewrite the District's gun laws, and the chief's position that they could not stop someone carrying an assault rifle along Pennsylvania Ave during the inaugeration was laughable -- but since the District chose to thumb their nose at the recent Supreme Court opinion and unreasonable and illegally restrict sales, prohibit semi-automatic hand guns, etc., I can't say that Fenty didn't ask for this kind of intervention.
Marc Fisher: Absolutely right -- the District didn't just ask for this, they virtually begged for it. Fenty and Peter Nickles chose not to accept the Supreme Court ruling, but to publicly announce that they would do everything they could think of to undermine it. They didn't use those words, of course, but their actions speak for themselves. Now the city will likely lose its right to craft its own gun laws, and the result will be something far less restrictive than the city could have accomplished on its own with a more moderate approach.
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Bowie: Your Nay of the Week takes Congressional Dems to task for interfering with the D.C. Gov't in the response to the gun decision. I see where Obama was quoted as saying he agrees with the Supreme Court decision and favors an individual's right to bear arms. Did I hear wrong?
Marc Fisher: You heard just right. Finding Democrats willing to stand up to the gun lobby and say what they privately believe is about as hard as finding Republicans who will stand up to the anti-abortion lobby and say what they privately believe.
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Arlington, Va.: Marc, a few months back you had a YAY that the voters in Montgomery County would be able to vote on the transgender protection law. I'm an LGBT activist and was very glad the courts ruled against allowing voters to decide on a minority protection statute. What are your thoughts now? Should the voters get to vote on a civil rights issue?
Marc Fisher: It's tragic that the court won't allow MoCo voters to analyze the proposal for themselves and register their own views about whether transgender people should be given special status under county law. Same goes for slots--I'm fine with putting the question to the voters, but only if the ballot question honestly lays out what the state is really planning to do.
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Section 128 Row E: Can we sue Luis Ayala to get back his salary? Based on the way he pitched against the Nats, it's obvious that he was purposely tanking while pitching for them.
Marc Fisher: Or he's a head case and he somehow lost the ability to pitch here because of the personal problems that the team kept whispering about this season. Or he's juiced by being on a contending team. Or he just couldn't get his heart into the Nats games because he was so angry about not becoming the closer. There is talent there -- we saw that in earlier seasons. Too bad it didn't show here this year.
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Washington D.C.: Marc: OK, so you're a DC teacher in your 30s,40s or older. You've seen Chancellor Rhee's management style, which is to clean house and start over as much as possible. That's not just what she says she wants to do, it's what she has done every time she is given the chance. Now, she's telling you that you'd get way more money under her proposed deal ... but you'd have to give up tenure, which means you might get fired.
Why on earth would you vote in favor of that deal? Is there any doubt that if it goes through, in a year we'll read about a great many older DC teachers losing their jobs because the administration will want to make a change and will see them as part of the problem? Why would it make any sense to accept the vague promise of future raises over the more likely outcome of having to hit the job market in a year during tough economic times? The odds of a charter school taking away your job in 5 years is far less than the odds of Chancellor Rhee taking away your job next June.
Unless you're seriously arguing that most of the teachers would return anyway, absent of tenure. In which case I would ask what in Chancellor Rhee's history of dealing with people makes that a credible argument.
Marc Fisher: Right -- if you're an old teacher near the end of career and you're coasting or just don't think you could hit the measures they'd use to judge you, then you'd be right to vote down the merit pay plan. But if you're younger and buy Rhee's ideas or see that some of your colleagues are much more effective than others, then all that extra money starts to sound really enticing.
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Washington, D.C.: Palin was recently mayor of a town of around 6,000. That's the equivalent of maybe 2 ANC districts here. Then she was governor of a state with as many people as D.C. since 2007. So let's see, if Palin is qualified, should Adrian Fenty be considering a presidential bid? How about Frank Winstead for veep?
Marc Fisher: Wouldn't it be cool to have a veep who wanders around taping bad scenes and putting them on YouTube like our man Winstead?
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HoCo, MD: Hi Marc,
Really enjoyed reading your column this morning. I'm a longtime Democrat and Obama supporter, and once again I fell into the trap of overconfidence toward the end of this election campaign. In 2004, I expected the electorate to toss Bush owing to the mounting evidence that his administration was mishandling the war in Iraq and the questionable tactics being used to gather intelligence both at home and abroad. But to be fair, Kerry wasn't particularly inspiring and his campaign could have been run more effectively.
This time around, Obama certainly has shown his abilities to inspire voters and to run a good campaign. Now, due to the entrance of Palin as McCain's running mate, it's as if blinders have been placed over a segment of the electorate.
How can the GOP get away with harping on experience for so long and end up with a VP candidate that is clearly not qualified for the Presidency? McCain is neither young nor healthy, so this is an absolutely crucial consideration. There's a big difference between experience as a wedding flower designer, like the person quoted in your article, and experience as a politician who acts on the world stage. How can experience be a liability in this situation? Why are flaws admirable? Are that many people's hypocrisy detectors broken?
Until now, Palin's post-convention rhetoric has consisted of repeating excerpts (nearly verbatim) from the speech she delivered at the convention. It will be interesting to see what happens once/if she is diverted from the prepared material. Kudos to any journalist who manages to force Palin off script in the context of meaningful political discourse.
Marc Fisher: If Palin is exposed to questioning, it will likely be too much of the gotcha school and will backfire, even if it does expose her to be less than well informed. But I wouldn't bet on that. If there's one thing we know about her, it's that she can handle herself nicely in front of a camera or a crowd. She was a TV sportscaster, you know.
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Washington, D.C.: The idea that "anyone can be president" is absurd. The original concept of our country was that the presidency is not a monarchy, so there was no requirement that the president be a member of the landed aristocracy. In modern times, this has been expanded, and now the mere fact that someone is black, or a woman, or something other than a white man is not an automatic bar to becoming the president. However, I really believe that the President of the United States should be someone who is extremely bright, thoughtful, engaged, gifted at management, articulate - basically, the best of the best. I want my president to be smarter than I am. Why has it become a bad thing for someone with all of those gifts to be running for president? Why has the main criteria become whether the person in question has led a life similar to mine? Once someone becomes president, his or her life will not be like mine at all, and I'd like to think that we should take that into consideration when making our decisions in the voting booth. Bottom line - I guess I'm sick of the idea that having college and law or business degrees from top schools automatically means that a person is an out of touch elitist. When did having brains and working hard become bad things in this country?
Marc Fisher: Just a couple more quick ones before we wrap....
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Washington, DC: Why is being young and relatively inexperienced a good thing for Obama and a bad thing for Palin? Or, put more cyncially, a good thing for a man and a bad thing for a woman?
Marc Fisher: Palin's amount of experience doesn't bother me nearly as much as her distance from so many of the problems a president has to work on.
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Annandale, Va.: Your editorial in the Metro Section of the Post today reveals a real ignorance of the American presidency. Most of our presidents had very humble origins. You said, "They tend to have come from wealth, power, fame, the pinnacle of our education system or all of the above." This is not true. Even President Reagan came from poverty and went to an obscure college. Most presidents had exactly the kind of origins as Sarah Palin. We have not been led by elites. You should do some research on where the American presidents went to college. Only four were Harvard educated. Some never went to college. The first president to be born in a hospital was Jimmy Carter. I can't believe the Post would allow such poor scholarship from one of their writers. Do your research next time.
Marc Fisher: Do the math -- our presidents have tended to come from wealth, power and prestigeful institutions. Not just Harvard, of course, but for most of our history, we have looked up to presidents as in many ways our betters, even as we cherish their connections to small towns and humble backgrounds.
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Palin: I have lived the last eight years with a President that I don't think is smarter than me. Bottom line, I think all the people who are in line for the office should be smarter than me, no matter the party. I may not agree with you but I want to be able to have an articulate discussion about the issues. So far, I have not seen anything about her that indicates she is and as a result there is no way that ticket gets my vote.
Marc Fisher: Couple more...
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Dupont Circle: Every Hillary supporter I know, whether mom or not, white, black, Asian, Hispanic, etc., is now firmly in the McCain-Palin camp (no matter how much dirt they "dig up" on her).
Many journalists and D.C. elites who think they are so damn smart, are, to use the cliche, out of touch with ordinary women, and women who do not march in lockstep with the Dems. These people also think that most voters and women think exactly like they do (wrong!).
They say liberal Dems won't back a "gun-toting, evangelical neophyte" like Palin. They say we "are too smart" to back Palin. They say we won't switch allegiances to Palin because of abortion, etc. But we are not all "issue voters" and some of us refuse to be boxed into neat little categories. Some of us are independent thinkers and have not drunk the Obama koolaid. Some of us also care about experience, character and leadership. McCain-Palin beats Obama on all these points.
Marc, the female factor will be hard to measure, because some women will be afraid to say it out loud (that they are pro-McCain) to the media, and others won't admit it to their liberal, Obama-loving friends. But once they step into that voting booth, all bets will be off and they, much to the liberal blowhards' chagrin, might just punch McCain-Palin. As a liberal Democrat, I'd just like to say that the Dems brought this on themselves. They made a mockery of the primaries (I voted HRC), and refused to put Hillary on the ticket. If Obama is so great, I wonder why it is that he, despite the disastrous eight years of Dubya, has not been able to have a commanding lead in the polls? With the state of the economy and the deplorable war in Iraq, Obama should be pummeling the GOP. Could it be that he is in fact THE WRONG CHOICE?
Marc Fisher: And this.....
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Petworth: This whole Palin flap is making me nuts in a very specific way.
I'm a woman without children. There are lots of us. There are also lots of women who no longer have children at home. But the Republicans seem to assume that all women are working mommies of small children. Well, that's not me, that will never be me, that has never been me. I don't object to a candidate who is the working mother of small children, I just object to the thought that woman=mother that the republicans are pushing on us yet again. (And no, I won't vote McCain, because I disagree with almost everything he stands for.)
Marc Fisher: And this...
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Annandale, Va.: What is wrong with Former Judge Fancy Pants? Is he really appealing the ruling against him and his $54 million dollar lawsuit over a lost pair of pants?
Marc Fisher: Yes, the appeal will be heard Oct. 22.
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Marc Fisher: That has to kick things in the head for today. We can come back to this next week if you wish. More in the blog every day, and in the column on Sunday. Thanks for coming along and apologies to the many, many I couldn't get to today.
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Washingtonpost.com
September 11, 2008 Thursday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Lois Romano, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 3434 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Lois Romano was online live Thursday, Sept. 11 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Lois Romano: Good morning. Thanks for joining us this morning.
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Cincinnati: Good morning, Lois, from an already overloaded resident of Ohio -- overloaded from political ads, and it's early. Thank goodness for the mute button! I'm curious as to why Sarah Palin continues to repeat her "Bridge to Nowhere" line when many reporters have discredited it. It's close to a falsehood, it takes away from her and John McCain's reformer image, and they don't need to say it. Repeating it does not make it true. And I say this as a McCain supporter with a bumper sticker on my car. He doesn't need to do this.
As a midshipman at the Naval Academy, he lived on an honor code that said he would not lie, cheat or steal. I went to the University of Virginia, which has a similar honor code. He would have been kicked out of school for this. I don't see the political benefit: she could give the same speech without it and its essence would be the same. What do you think?
Lois Romano: The statement on the bridge seems the least of it at this point. McCains two recent ads- one accusing Obama of supporting sex education for kindergartners and of calling Palin a pig--are flat out false. Voters eventually will get sick of all of this irrelevant stuff and demand to know issues.
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Cameron, N.C.: Good morning. Do you think that the McCain is ever going to discuss the issues -- Iraq, the economy, Social Security, Medicare, etc.? Or are we going to parse every Obama comment looking for perceived insults for the next two months? I've turned off cable TV, should I now forego the A section and the Internet to save my sanity?
Lois Romano: Its pretty bad isn't it. Turn your tv back on for the debates.
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Easton, Mass.: Hi Lois. As a regular politics chat reader, I have seen a number of times where Post reporters refer to John McCain's "real" personality/character/views as somehow separate from -- and less negative or deceitful than -- his campaign. (One example: Dan Balz once wrote of McCain's "true voice" as different from the disorganized and negative campaign he was running.) On what are reporters basing this idea of the "real" McCain, and do you think his recent behavior will affect assessments of McCain? Too often it seems the coverage's starting point is that McCain is inherently "honorable" and "serious" rather than starting from a neutral, objective place that considers his current actions on their own terms.
Lois Romano: Very good question. The assessments of McCain are largely based reporters years--sometimes decades-- of dealing with him up close, which would include his 2000 presidential bid. Supporting that was the fact that his own party often had issues with him because he wouldn't walk in lock step with them. While being a conservative, he has always seemed open to other views. Yes, I thnk this spate of negative ads and charges can impact him negatively. At a certain point you can't say you don't know what's going.
Lois Romano: Very good question. The assessments of McCain are largely based reporters years--sometimes decades-- of dealing with him up close, which would include his 2000 presidential bid. Supporting that was the fact that his own party often had issues with him because he wouldn't walk in lock step with them. While being a conservative, he has always seemed open to other views. Yes, I thnk this spate of negative ads and charges can impact him negatively. At a certain point you can't say you don't know what's going.
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Richmond, Va.: South Carolina Democratic chairwoman Carol Fowler sharply attacked Sarah Palin yesterday, saying John McCain had chosen a running mate "whose primary qualification seems to be that she hasn't had an abortion." Two days ago, the governor of New York played the race card by accusing McCain and Palin of using a racist code word: "community organizer."
Disgusting. Just disgusting. Barack Obama and his supporters have gone so far beyond the bounds of basic human decency. Wasn't it just two weeks ago that Obama said in his Denver speech that he wanted his campaign to be about issues, not personalities? But he's calling Palin a pig (and everyone in the crowd knew it) and having his surrogates launch these kinds of nasty personal attacks. I thought he was a different kind of politician. He is -- he's worse.
Lois Romano: Oh Puleeezze Richmond! Are you on another planet? or just on Mccain's payroll?
John McCain put up an ad yesterday saying Obama supported sex education for kindergartners which is false. And no person in their right ming thinks Obama called her any such thing. Obama is fighting back on the attacks and you're right about one thing== its disgusting to deprive voters of discussions on issues.
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Hampton, Va.: Lois, John McCain has enjoyed a great week-and-a-half, winning the news cycle almost every day and climbing at least even in the polls. Your colleague Howard Kurtz argues that the media is now angry -- particularly at McCain's attacks on Obama -- and we're about to see the pendulum swing. Do you sense that in the media? Are you prepared to jump to Obama's defense?
washingtonpost.com: The Anger Factor (Post, Sept. 11)
Lois Romano: The media shouldn't be angry or happy. What reporters should do is just report what is going on and let the public decide.
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Phoenix: Lois, what do you think John McCain, the candidate of 2000, would say about the campaign being run by John McCain, the candidate of 2008?
Lois Romano: They would say: Who is that guy?
But as McCain likes to say, he didn't win in 2000 so he had to try a new tact.
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Rochester, N.Y.: You write "McCains two recent ads -- one accusing Obama of supporting sex education for kindergartners and of calling Palin a pig -- are flat out false." You also suggest that voters will be turned off by they lying. What evidence do you have that voters will be turned off by lying?
Lois Romano: I have no evidence. But voters are smart and have a way of getting out the truth.
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Powhatan, Va.: Thanks for your work and taking our questions. This being Sept. 11, I realize we are trying as a nation to set aside politics and focus on this day of remembrance. However, it is an election year. Who, McCain or Obama, does Sept. 11 help or hurt. Why?
Lois Romano: I'm just not sure it impacts either-- but McCain believes he shows better in times of national security crisis. Today, however, they are both going to ground zero so both will look presidential.
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Richmond, Va.: Lois, this is the second chat where you've called out a questioner as a member of the McCain campaign. I don't doubt both campaigns try to influence these things, but you've never called out someone as a member of the Obama campaign. It makes you look biased that you can sniff out pro-McCain questions but not the pro-Obama ones. I'm the guy who asked the pro-McCain question. I'm not working for him, I haven't contributed to him ... but I'm leaning his way. Poking the media with a stick is just fun.
Lois Romano: I feel like I have called out a writer for being on Obama staff at some point--although I can't swear to it. Sometimes questions are worded in a way that I think someone is trying to stack the deck. I'm really just playing devil's advocate-- Take no offense.
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Boston: As a woman reporter do you ever feel that you are being treated unfairly -- that the men get better stories to cover from editors or a that there is a reluctance from interviewees to speak with you because you're female, or that promotions are withheld because you might get pregnant? I think reporting is one occupation that seems unisex, but as a male I can't tell.
Lois Romano: No, I don't feel that. Reporting is really a meritocracy. If you can write and you can report, everyone is given an equal chance.
Like other professions, however, it was once dominated by men. Women writers were sent to the women's pages.
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Hartford, Conn.: Lois: In your response to Cincinnati, you wrote that "voters eventually will get sick of all of this irrelevant stuff and demand to know issues." What makes you think this year is any different from the last five or six presidential elections?
Lois Romano: Hope springs eternal.
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Rockville, Md.: Lips or no lips, it seems that the Democrats have concluded that Palin will ruin them if they do not attack. How will it play out? Destroyed, or saved by sympathy?
Lois Romano: Its a pretty delicate dance for Democrats right now. Palin has turned into a phenomenon and people like her. But she is also being tightly controlled, and giving the save speech every day. Democrats are hoping that once she strikes out on her own, voters might see another dimension to her. But she may not do that. Apparently, the campaign is considering keeping she and McCain together.
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Stone Ridge, Va.: It's pretty obvious what McCain's up to -- keep baiting Obama with Palin and let him bat her around like a pinata, with predictable results. At what point does the Obama campaign wise up and stop responding?
Lois Romano: Yes, you are right. If the Mccain campaign keeps throwing the sink at Obama, he stops talking about issues and keeps talking about the sink heading jis way. Obama needs to find the right balance for him-- but he can't ignore them. That has proved deadly in previous elections.
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Arlington, Va.: Barack Obama seems preoccupied with Sarah Palin. Two questions: don't his attacks inflate her standing? Wouldn't he better better off dismissing her as a political lightweight and ignoring her? Secondly, where the hell is Joe Biden? Isn't the vice presidential nominee traditionally the attack dog? Why is Obama doing the dirty work?
Lois Romano: Biden is out there in big important markets--like Florida. But Biden is not covered as much as Obama-- he's a magnet for media coverage so he is delivering the message.
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Birmingham, Ala.: Given the debate formats (the first and third with a moderator and nine-minute segments, the second a "town hall" format) who do you expect to have advantages in each? Common wisdom appears to be McCain will dominate the town hall format, but I was wondering your opinion? The way the campaign is going, I can't wait for the debates instead of frivolous he-said/she-said tactics.
Lois Romano: McCain's campaign believes he will do best in the free-wheeling town hall setting. Debate are not Obama's strongest platform.
But that said, Ive quit predicting on debates. Everyone thought Gore would trounce Bush in 2000-- and some think he did on substance- but his demeanor gave the victory to Bush. Kerry did trounce Bush in 2004-- and still lost.
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Southwest Vermont: Lois, I was a McCain County Co-Chair in 2000, and I'm trying to be objective, but today's "edition" is not the 2000 one. A couple of New Hampshire supporters of McCain have told me that they and a lot of their friends in New Hampshire are switching to Obama, because of the campaign tactics and the selection of Palin. Not scientific to be sure, but your thoughts on this happening elsewhere beneath the poll "radar"? Thanks, and thanks for the comment on that McCain "talking head" from Richmond.
Lois Romano: I don't think we know yet. But picking Palin was always a mixed blessing for McCain: he secured his conservarive base, which he needed to do because they were lukewarm. But he may have lost Independants like your friends.
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Delicate dance?: I disagree -- there are any number of women on the Democratic side that could rebut Palin without being accused of sexism. Let's start with Hillary Clinton, who should be doing just that. Aside from her, how about Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Mikulski or Geraldine Ferraro -- who, after all, was the first major-party woman candidate? Democrats need to get work, and to counter the Palin nomination no one is better than the women who already lead the party.
Lois Romano: Yes, very good points. Dems
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Reality City: I believe you are wrong about McCain's ad being false. Do you think you can airdrop any reporters into Chicago? Anyway, having now looked at the text of the sex education bill in question, it's clear that one of its key purposes was to change existing law that said "each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades 6 through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention, transmission and spread of AIDS" to "each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV." Yes, the legislation permitted parents to take their children out of the class. But that was already existing law.
(Note that the legislation also aimed to change the language from "all public elementary, junior high, and senior high 20 school classes that teach sex education and discuss sexual intercourse shall emphasize that abstinence is the expected norm in that abstinence from sexual intercourse is the only protection that is 100 percent effective against unwanted teen pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)" to "all public elementary, junior high, and senior high school classes that teach sex education and discuss sexual activity or behavior shall emphasize that abstinence is an effective method of preventing unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and HIV when transmitted sexually.")
Yes, there is a section stating that course material ought to be "age and developmentally appropriate." But the bill also talks about alcohol and drug use education instruction in grades five through 12, so the legislation clearly recognized that some topics are best held until later years, but deemed that instruction on sexually-transmitted diseases -- not merely "good touch, bad touch" -- wasn't one of them.
Lois Romano: The New York Times (pA18) today does a thorough job of explaining why the ad is a distortion of Obama's position and the intent of the bill. It also shows how its a recycled-- and debunked--charge from his senate race.
Everyone should read the story on the web. I found it persuasive.
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San Diego: Palin doesn't answer questions. She's giving her first interview today and tomorrow with Charlie Gibson, but it will be in a tightly controlled atmosphere. Now we learn that everything on her plane is "off the record." At what point, given McCain's desire to prevent the media (or the public) from having actual access to his chosen vice presidential candidate, does the media stop following her around and giving her what is essentially a free, around-the-clock campaign commercial?
Lois Romano: Never.
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New York: Lois, thanks, good for you on responding strongly to the phony comments from Richmond. Question for you: Who selects the debate moderators? Are there any guidelines re: the questions, so that substantive issues must be emphasized? (Here's hoping.)
washingtonpost.com: Commission on Debates
Lois Romano: I believe EVERYTHING is negotiated with regard to format and general subject matter. But the camapigns can't tell the moderators what to ask.
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Fairfax, Va.: Lois, thanks for taking my question. Polls seem to show that Obama appeals more to those who are better educated and more affluent. His campaign looks to me to be aimed at smart people. However, and with apologies to Adlai Stevenson, he needs a majority. Is he aiming too high? What can he do to connect with the rest of us?
Lois Romano: I believe he's trying, and that's also what Joe Biden is suppposed to bring-- middle class roots.
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New York: Will Obama give a tacit nod to the 527s to counterattack? Aren't there a number of such groups just waiting for the green light?
Lois Romano: If this line of attack continues on Obama, you will see more from the 527s. But hopefully not because Obama said so since that would be illegal.
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washingtonpost.com: Ad on Sex Education Distorts Obama Policy (New York Times, Sept. 10)
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Richmond, Va.: Hi Lois, thanks for taking questions today! Republican strategist John Feehery was quoted in Washington Post yesterday saying: "There's a bigger truth out there and the bigger truths are [Sarah Palin is] new, she's popular in Alaska and she is an insurgent. As long as those are out there, these little facts don't really matter."
I was curious what journalists thought of the apparent Republican strategy that any facts revealed that don't play into the "bigger truth" of Palin's scripted story are considered "little" facts that don't really matter. I know perception and spin are everything in politics, but the Republicans seem to be taking things down to a whole new level of dishonesty. Thoughts?
Lois Romano: Journalists will continue to report when candidates mistate facts and distort records. Feehery was obvioulsy saying that her popularlity is such that, people will ignore everything else. Hard to say. Its still very very early. In politics, 24 hours can be a lifetime. Much can happen in the next 60 days to shift the debate.
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Newark, N.J.: It's funny how the left demands that Palin be made available to the media. The assumption is that you'll pick apart her carefully constructed image. But Obama doesn't let the media get close either. Anyone want to demand that Obama meet with the media? Hello? Anyone there? Sarah Palin's strategy is sound. The attacks from the left -- distorting her record with false attacks about banning books, etc. -- aren't working. Her approval rating is fantastic, especially with core demographics in swing states. Why change? I'd stay in that bubble until someone pops it.
Lois Romano:
Obama meets with the media. He often talks to reporters on his plane and gives interviews to the networks. Your advice to the campaign is sound-- they will protect her until they can't. Simple as that.
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Vienna, Va.: Lois, Dan Balz did a nice piece on the Web site about how polarized the campaign has become. It would have been nice if he had emphasized his key point a little more: the campaign doing most of the polarizing -- if not almost all of it -- is the McCain campaign. Lipstick on pigs, the Bridge to Nowhere and the sex education ad just serve as the tip of the iceberg. I know journalists are supposed to be neutral, but is there any doubt that the polarizing, especially the sleaziest of it, is coming from McCain?
washingtonpost.com: The Trail: The Politics of Polarization (washingtonpost.com, Sept. 10)
Lois Romano: Dan Balz stated it pretty directly, I thought. He left no room for interpretation on that one.
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South Riding, Va.: At what point do the Democrats finally figure out that if they ignore Palin and even McCain and simply focus on Obama's clear advantages on the issues that he'll get his momentum/lead back? Right now the Republicans are making them look like a bunch of amateurs.
Lois Romano: Give them a little time. They were caught off guard by her immense popularity-- as was the McCain campaign. This is still very new and needs to level out a bit longer.
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Lois Romano: Thank you all for joining us today. No mystery what's on everyone's mind! Join my colleagues here same time weekdays for more insight. Have a good week.
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Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.
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The New York Times
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
National Edition
Protecting Your Assets: Some Strategies
BYLINE: By DEBORAH L. JACOBS
SECTION: Section SPG; Column 0; Wealth&PersonalFinance; Pg. 4
LENGTH: 1169 words
UNCERTAINTY about future tax rates is complicating estate planning at a time when the economic downturn offers significant opportunities.
Most methods of saving estate taxes reduce a person's net worth through irrevocable lifetime transfers. Yet even the very wealthy are sometimes reluctant to take this step, because they worry that it will leave them short of money, said Lloyd Leva Plaine, a lawyer with Sutherland, the Washington-based firm. Market turbulence and changing political tides exacerbate those fears.
Even if you have no estate tax concerns, strong reasons remain for creating trusts and maintaining old ones, said Steve R. Akers, managing director at the Bessemer Trust Company in Dallas. They can safeguard your assets and provide for your care if you can no longer handle your affairs; they can also hold money for minors, prevent funds from being eroded by spendthrift family members and protect assets from former spouses or someone who wins a lawsuit against you.
Because of a quirk in the current law, the estate tax is scheduled for repeal at the end of 2009. Then, after a year with no estate tax, it would return at the unfavorable rates that applied in 2001, unless Congress enacts a new plan. For 2008, the exemption amount is $2 million a person and the rate is 45 percent; the exemption increases to $3.5 million in 2009 with the rate unchanged.
Neither presidential candidate wants the tax repealed, and each has offered a proposal for modifying it. Senator Barack Obama favors a system in which there would be no tax on the first $3.5 million worth of assets that each of us leaves behind, and a tax of 45 percent on everything above that amount -- in other words, continuing the 2009 model. Senator John McCain's proposal would allow $5 million to pass tax-free and would lower the tax rate to 15 percent.
Both political parties also support a proposed tax break for married couples. It would permit a surviving spouse to carry over any portion of the exempt amount that wasn't used by the deceased spouse. Couples would be exempt from estate tax if their combined assets were up to $7 million under the Obama plan or up to $10 million under the McCain version.
Such a measure would require major legislation to make up for the revenue lost by lowering the tax rate or raising the exemption. Congress might, for example, curtail the use of other estate planning tools, said Dennis I. Belcher, a lawyer with McGuireWoods in Richmond, Va. The possibilities include stricter rules on the use of certain kinds of trusts and on family limited partnerships.
Lawmakers might also opt for the path of least resistance and keep extending the 2009 rates, one year at time, rather than making them permanent or tackling the bigger issues, Mr. Belcher said -- no matter who occupies the White House.
While it may be tempting to wait and see, Mr. Akers of Bessemer Trust said the current downturn offers estate planning opportunities. Here are some strategies to consider:
CONVERT A TRADITIONAL IRA TO A ROTH This multipurpose strategy can eliminate the income tax that you or your heirs would have to pay when withdrawing the funds. You also avoid the requirement to take yearly minimum distributions beginning at age 70 1/2, which can leave more for your heirs if you don't use the money yourself.
Although you must pay tax on the amount being converted, a decline in account values makes conversion a potential bargain right now, said Barry C. Picker, an accountant and financial planner with Picker, Weinberg & Auerbach in Brooklyn. Assuming the investment springs back, that appreciation will escape income tax.
If estate taxes might also be an issue, a Roth conversion offers an additional benefit. Money spent on income taxes reduces your net worth and leaves less that could be subject to estate taxes.
The main catch is the income limits that apply until 2010. For now, you can do a conversion only if you are single or filing jointly and your adjusted gross income -- modified by adding back in foreign income, foreign-housing deductions and other items -- is below $100,000. Affluent retirees with no earned income and with tax-efficient investments might well qualify. A Roth conversion is a valuable, low-tech estate planning technique, often overlooked because many advisers are not fluent with the complexities or assume, sometimes mistakenly, that their clients will not qualify.
MOVE INVESTMENTS THAT HAVE LOST VALUE You can give $12,000 worth of assets a year to as many recipients as you like without paying gift tax. Spouses can combine this annual exclusion to give $24,000 jointly to any person (or a trust for his or her benefit). If you want to give away more than that, you can either count your gift against the $1 million lifetime exemption -- the total of taxable gifts each person can make without incurring gift tax -- or, if you have used up the exemption, pay gift tax of 45 percent.
By transferring property now, when market values are low, you can pack more into these limits, Ms. Plaine said. For gift-tax purposes, you count the value of the asset at the time of the transfer. Any appreciation is not subject to estate or gift tax.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOW INTEREST RATES A couple of planning devices that can reduce or eliminate the gift tax are especially attractive because interest rates are still very low.
One is the grantor-retained annuity trust, or GRAT. You put assets into a short-term irrevocable trust, and you retain the right to receive annual income equal to the value of what you contribute plus interest at a rate set each month by the Internal Revenue Service (the Section 7520 rate). If you survive the trust term -- a condition for this tool to work -- any appreciation in the trust when the annual payments end passes to your family.
If the property doesn't perform, ''you haven't really lost anything,'' said Carlyn S. McCaffrey, a lawyer with Weil, Gotshal & Manges in New York. The trust would satisfy its payout obligations by giving you back the assets.
A popular alternative to a GRAT is for senior family members to sell assets to a trust that will benefit younger relatives and, in exchange, take back an interest-bearing promissory note. Assuming a sale at fair-market value and interest at the applicable federal rate, which is lower than the Section 7520 rate, there is no gift and therefore no gift tax.
With both of these strategies, your hope is that the value of the assets will increase by more than the interest rate by the time the trust or loan term ends. If that happens, you will have shifted all that excess to family members without having to pay gift tax.
In today's uncertain environment, these tools have another attraction. Each creates an income stream -- an annuity from a GRAT or interest in connection with a loan -- for the person making the transfer. If you want to do estate planning but are afraid of running out of money, this can greatly add to your level of comfort.
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The New York Times
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
For '08 Rivals, A Skein of Ties To Loan Giants
BYLINE: By JACKIE CALMES; Kitty Bennett contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1134 words
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
Senators Barack Obama and John McCain each cite the mess at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a consequence of the corrosive coziness of lobbyists and politicians that they promise to end. But each man and his party also have ties to the fallen giants that will complicate the next president's job of reshaping the mortgage finance companies that have been essential to the economy.
The Republican nominee, Mr. McCain of Arizona, has numerous close relationships with and contributions from current and former company lobbyists.
Mr. Obama, his Democratic rival from Illinois, is second among members of Congress in donations from the firms' employees and political action committees.
Beyond the antilobbyist message, Mr. Obama also indicts the Bush administration and the Republicans who controlled Congress for a dozen years until 2007, including Mr. McCain.
He blames them for lax regulation that freed the companies to go deep into debt to buy the mortgages that crushed them as the housing crisis persisted. Yet his fellow Democrats in Congress have been well known as enablers of the two companies for years, protecting the firms' dueling responsibilities to support affordable housing as well as to maximize shareholder profits.
For all their outrage now, neither Mr. Obama, with less than four years in the Senate, and Mr. McCain, after a quarter-century in the House and Senate, has a record of directly challenging the companies. Mr. Obama did warn publicly of a coming housing crisis in March 2007, five months before it erupted and the government first took action.
Several former company executives, as well as current and former Senate Republican staff members, said Mr. McCain seemed to avoid matters related to the financial industry after the last major financial crisis -- the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s. He was one of the ''Keating Five'' senators investigated by the Senate, accused of interceding with federal regulators for the operator of a failing thrift. Mr. McCain received a rebuke.
More than Mr. Obama, Mr. McCain's circle of advisers and contributors includes current and former lobbyists or directors for the companies, although since July he has called for a ban on any lobbying by the two firms.
Among the companies' past advocates are Mr. McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, a longtime lobbyist; Mr. McCain's confidant and adviser Charlie Black, whose firm worked for Freddie Mac for several years ending in 2005, and the deputy campaign finance chairman, Wayne L. Berman, a vice president for Ogilvy Worldwide and a former Fannie Mae lobbyist.
Mr. Davis previously was head of the Homeownership Alliance, a coalition of banks and housing industry interests led by Fannie and Freddie to stave off regulations.
The group was formed to counter another organization, FM Watch, an alliance of financial institutions and lobbying associations that wanted to even the playing field against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, by challenging the implicit government guarantee that allowed the two firms to borrow funds at lower interest rates.
Six members of the Republican lobbying firm Fierce Isakowitz & Blalock, all Fannie Mae lobbyists, have given Mr. McCain $13,250, records show.
The New York investor Geoffrey T. Boisi, a member of Freddie Mac's board, contributed more than $70,000 to Mr. McCain and Republican Party committees working for his election. Both he and Richard F. Hohlt, a Fannie Mae lobbyist, are among the McCain ''bundlers'' who have raised $100,000 to $250,000 from others, according to the campaign Web site.
Both candidates' vetters for their vice presidential picks have links to Fannie. The former chairman, James Johnson, initially led Mr. Obama's search committee, but stepped aside after a controversy over favorable loan terms he received from another firm. Mr. McCain's vetter, Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr., was a past Fannie lobbyist.
Mr. Obama's contributors include the Freddie Mac senior vice president Robert Y. Tsien and the directors William M. Lewis Jr., a banker at Lazard, and the Chicago businesswoman Brenda J. Gaines. He does not accept contributions from lobbyists, but Mr. Obama has been a favorite of Fannie Mae employees and their political action committee, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.
He was second only to the Senate Banking Committee chairman, Christopher J. Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat, in contributions from the two firms' employees and PACs since 1998, the analysis found, even though Mr. Obama has been in the Senate only since 2005. While the two firms have long been careful to hire from and contribute to both parties, generally Fannie Mae has favored Democrats and Freddie Mac the Republicans.
The center said he received $122,850, of which $101,150 was from Fannie Mae.
Until now, the companies were among the capital's lobbying powerhouses -- hiring former members of Congress, administration officials and top staff members as in-house lobbyists, contracting with outside lobbying firms, and sprinkling development projects and charitable contributions among Congressional districts.
With the Treasury's action over the weekend putting Fannie and Freddie in government conservatorships, the issue of what went wrong and how to fix them has intruded into the presidential campaign.
Mr. McCain wants to see the companies carved up and privatized, as commercial lenders have long sought. Phil Gramm, Mr. McCain's friend and longtime adviser, also took that position when he was the Senate Banking Committee chairman in the late 1990s to 2003.
Mr. Obama's comments signal a preference for the sort of public-private hybrid that Fannie and Freddie were, but with tighter controls. The firms, until now, were shareholder-owned and highly profitable, but chartered by the government and backed by an implicit government guarantee that is now explicit.
Both senators issued statements supporting Treasury's seizure. And both increased the populist rhetoric in their competition to be seen as an agent of change.
Mr. McCain attributed the companies' troubles to ''cronyism, special interest lobbyists and executives making millions of dollars a year while things were going downhill.''
Mr. Obama, in Ohio on Tuesday, said he would oppose any golden parachutes for the companies' ousted executives. ''Any action with respect to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac needs to put taxpayers first and can't under any circumstances bail out shareholders or senior management of those companies,'' he said.
He sent a letter late Monday to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and James B. Lockhart, the companies' conservator, seeking clarification that the bailout would not provide ''a windfall'' to ousted executives.
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LOAD-DATE: September 10, 2008
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GRAPHIC: CHART: FANNIE AND FREDDIE AND MCCAIN AND OBAMA: Directors, officers and lobbyists for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have contributed to the 2008 campaigns of John McCain, and, in smaller amounts, Barack Obama, and their related committees. Here is a sample. (Source: Federal Election Commission) (pg.A22)
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The New York Times
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; TODAY IN BUSINESS; Pg. 2
LENGTH: 536 words
TIES TO LOBBYISTS For all their outrage over the coziness of politicians and lobbyists, Senators Barack Obama and John McCain have their own ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
EXPRESS CHECKOUT Retailers are experimenting with smaller grocery stores that emphasize prepared meals, fresh produce and grab-and-go drinks, hoping to lure shoppers who want to pick up a few items or a fast meal. [A1.]
NO DEAL Wall Street was bracing for the possible collapse of Lehman Brothers after a report that talks with the Korea Development Bank ended without a deal for a capital injection. [A1.]
PUMPING TO SLOW Despite concerns from some members, OPEC said it would reduce oil production levels in a bid to curtail a decline in oil prices. [C1.]
SECOND-HAND SHOPPING The same economic woes that are sending consumers to thrift stores are causing donors to give fewer items, causing many stores to run low on inventory. [C1.]
BARGAINING POSITION The machinists' union striking the Boeing Company wants it to add more workers to meet its production goals, a promise Boeing is leery of making. [C1.]
STUDENT LENDERS SETTLE The New York attorney general said several student loan companies agreed to adopt broad reforms as part of a settlement over deceptive marketing practices. [C1.]
Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo is investigating Arbitron's personal people meters, which critics say skew the ratings for minority broadcasting. [C3.]
GENDER DEBATE The European Parliament voted to scold advertisers for ''sexual stereotyping,'' a measure that may provoke debate about gender messages in ad campaigns. Advertising. [C2.]
ANTITRUST CHALLENGE The Justice Department hired a veteran antitrust lawyer to assess a deal between Google and Yahoo, an indication that it might be planning a legal challenge. [C3.]
JOB CUTS AT RENAULT The French automaker Renault said it would cut 6,000 jobs, prompting protests from a union, which called for a one-day strike. [C3.]
BEAR SETTLES The former Bear Stearns Companies agreed to pay $28 million to settle charges that it deceived consumers with its home loan practices. [C4.]
FUNDING FOR LENDERS Although Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are struggling, other government-linked mortgage companies have come through the credit crisis largely unscathed. [C4.]
Three prominent Democrats criticized the multimillion-dollar pay packages awarded to the former chief executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. [C4.]
NO SURPRISES Steven P. Jobs, the chief executive of Apple, unveiled incremental changes to the iPod line of products and iTunes, setting the company up for the holiday shopping season. Mr. Jobs also announced that NBC was bringing its television lineup back to iTunes. [C3.]
FEELING THE SQUEEZE Mall landlords are facing mounting challenges: vacancies are up, retail sales have been disappointing and established chains have filed for bankruptcy protection. [C5.]
TOBACCO GIANT TO CUT JOBS Reynolds American said it would eliminate 570 jobs to reduce costs as cigarette consumption in the United States declines. [C6.]
CUTTING COSTS, NOT JOBS Airbus presented new cost-cutting measures to unions as part of its plan to seek an additional $1.42 billion in savings. [C9.]
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The New York Times
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Feeling a Challenge, Obama Sharpens His Silver Tongue
BYLINE: By JEFF ZELENY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; POLITICAL MEMO; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 903 words
DATELINE: LEBANON, Va.
A new character is making a debut at Senator Barack Obama's campaign rallies: His name is John McCain.
It began quietly on Monday in Michigan, but grew in volume as Mr. Obama made his way from Flint to Farmington Hills, carrying over to a speech on Tuesday morning in Ohio. By the time he arrived for an evening stop in the southwestern tip of Virginia, Mr. Obama's sales pitch contained nearly as many references to Senator McCain as to himself, suggesting how the McCain campaign has been driving the recent dialogue of the presidential race.
''John McCain says he's about change, too -- except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove-style politics,'' Mr. Obama told his supporters here. ''That's just calling the same thing something different.''
With a laugh, he added: ''You can put lipstick on a pig; it's still a pig. You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change; it's still going to stink after eight years.''
In the latest sign of the campaign's heightened intensity, Mr. McCain's surrogates responded within minutes and called on Mr. Obama to apologize to Gov. Sarah Palin for the lipstick remark. But to those in the audience, it was clear that Mr. Obama was employing an age-old phrase -- lipstick on a pig -- and referring to Mr. McCain's policies. He had not yet mentioned Ms. Palin at that point of his speech.
The exchange came as Mr. Obama has been stepping up his own rhetoric as he has sought to draw attention back to himself after a week in which Ms. Palin has dominated the stage.
For all the discussion about polls this week, perhaps the best barometer of the state of the campaign can be found by simply taking a listen to Mr. Obama as Election Day rushes up on him.
With just 57 days remaining in this long presidential race, Mr. Obama is going after Mr. McCain more aggressively than at any other point in the campaign, with a professorial tone giving way to one of prosecution. These days, he sounds more like those sharp-tongued commercials seen on television.
''Do you really believe John McCain is going to make a difference now?'' Mr. Obama said, mentioning his rival's name twice in the same breath, a pattern he repeated again and again. ''John McCain doesn't get it.''
His advisers said that combative edge was essential to blunt any progress Mr. McCain was making as he sought to encroach on Mr. Obama's trademark message of change. Or perhaps it is in response to cries of alarm from Democrats who believe he is being too mild-mannered.
But Mr. Obama's remarks are curiously reminiscent -- right down to that mocking tone -- to words he spoke nearly a year ago when Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton suddenly tried to swipe the mantle of change and Mr. Obama demonstrated a fight that many Democrats had doubted he could muster.
Mr. Obama has been in this place before: finding the proper temperature to aggressively critique -- or attack -- his rival without tarnishing his own image of trying to remain above traditional politics. As he enters the final eight weeks of the race, advisers said, the lessons from the Democratic primaries are alive in his head.
Mr. McCain and his running mate, Ms. Palin, seem to be there, too.
''A month ago, they were all saying, 'Oh, it's experience, experience, experience,' '' Mr. Obama said, speaking over booming applause the other night in a high school gymnasium. ''Then they chose Palin and they started talking about change, change, change. What happened? What happened? What happened?''
For one of the few times in his presidential candidacy, Mr. Obama is suddenly not the freshest and most telegenic figure on the ballot. While he seems to have settled on a line of attack against Mr. McCain, his campaign appearances in the past 12 days make clear that he is still grappling with his approach to Ms. Palin.
He has declared her family off limits. He has praised her biography, telling an audience, ''Mother, governor, moose shooter -- that's cool.'' But he has taken sharp aim at her record as Alaska governor, vigorously questioning her evolving stance on the state's so-called bridge to nowhere.
''She was for it until everybody started raising a fuss about it and she started running for governor and then suddenly she was against it,'' Mr. Obama said, speaking over an applauding crowd in Michigan. ''I mean, you can't just make stuff up. You can't just recreate yourself. You can't just reinvent yourself. The American people aren't stupid.''
There were plentiful signs in recent days that the voters turning out to see Mr. Obama liked his forceful tone, with several audiences chanting along with him, ''Eight is Enough! Eight is Enough!'' which has become a rallying cry for changing Washington.
Newly invigorated, his presence and energy on stage resembled how he began to act last fall as his extended primary battle with Mrs. Clinton became fully engaged.
But as in that contest, Mr. Obama's aggressive posture comes with possible pitfalls -- real or created by the opposition -- as he again navigates the tricky terrain of gender politics.
As Mr. Obama's motorcade passed through the Appalachian countryside on Tuesday night, aides inside his campaign headquarters back in Chicago were fighting back criticism over the lipstick-on-a-pig remark, assertively trying to steer the conversation back to attacking Mr. McCain.
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The New York Times
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Late Edition - Final
Campaigns Adjust Their Pace to Meet Short Season
BYLINE: By ADAM NAGOURNEY; Kitty Bennett and Jim Rutenberg contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 20
LENGTH: 1110 words
DATELINE: DAYTON, Ohio
Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are confronting a sharply abbreviated general election campaign season, the product of the late nominating conventions and a boom in early voting in tightly contested states. This shortened timetable is forcing both campaigns to recalibrate the pace of television advertisements, accelerate voter turnout operations and tailor the candidates' traveling schedules to accommodate states where voting is imminent.
While it is just eight weeks until Election Day, even that schedule overstates how much time the presidential nominees have to win over voters. More than 30 states allow some form of early voting, forcing the campaigns to deal with a rolling series of Election Days. Iowa, a crucial state, will begin voting on Sept. 23, less than three weeks after the end of the Republican convention marked the traditional start of the general election sprint.
''I think it's unprecedented, a whole new way of looking at elections,'' said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who is not involved with either campaign. ''A combination of the late conventions and the way early voting is becoming even earlier around the country is going to have a big, big impact.''
Aides to Mr. McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, are devising state-by-state advertising strategies so that their close-the-deal messages -- typically kept in reserve until the last 10 days before Election Day -- are released to coincide with when people are reaching their final decisions. The old advertising formula was to begin after Labor Day with soft biographical advertisements introducing the candidate, followed by commercials drawing sharp contrasts with the other side, and closing with the strongest argument. But that formula is obsolete, aides to both candidates said.
The traveling schedules of the candidates, spouses and running mates are being adjusted so they front-load the time spent in states where, practically speaking, there is not much time before people begin to vote. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain were in Ohio on Tuesday, on-the-ground evidence of the fact that this state will for the first time permit early voting in presidential elections. Voting starts Sept. 30.
Turnout operations that once would not have kicked into high-gear until the weekend before Election Day are about to be revved up and will remain in operation to accommodate the elongated period of early voting, posing new expenses and complications. The campaigns are using computer models -- studying past voting trends along with consumer and demographic data -- to try to identify people most likely to be early voters, and press them to vote.
''We are now less than 30 days from people voting,'' said Steve Hildebrand, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. ''Easily one-third of the people are going to vote before Election Day.''
Given the truncated general election season, campaign aides said they were going to have make triage decisions sooner about what states the nominees are actually going to compete in. The ambitious battleground presented by Mr. Obama's aides, of at least 18 states, may soon get whittled down in deference to a calendar that does not leave that many days for campaigning. With deceptively little time left, it is now unlikely that Mr. McCain will go to, say, New Jersey, or that Mr. Obama will visit Georgia, early wish-list states for the two candidates.
And given the time constraints, complicated by the fact that the three presidential debates are going to eat up campaign time in the weeks ahead, there is less time for a candidate to recover from a mistake or catch up should either Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain experience a major breakthrough at one of those debates.
''It fundamentally changes two things: timing and budgets,'' said Mike DuHaime, the political director for Mr. McCain. ''You need to close the deal earlier for some voters, and Election Day can be spread out over weeks. That means your get-out-the-vote costs are more than ever.''
David Plouffe, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, said: ''This is an enormously compressed time frame -- this thing is really getting down to the wire. You can't look at this like there's 57 days until Election Day. We start having Election Day right around the corner.''
The shortened campaign season means that both campaigns have more money to spend on a per-week or per-day basis; thus, the $84 million that Mr. McCain is receiving in his federal campaign subsidy will go a lot farther in a 60-day campaign than it would have gone in, say, 2000 when the general election campaign lasted 81 days.
With the exception of one campaign, 2004, this 60-day general election campaign is the shortest since the new Republican Party held its convention in 1856. This year, unlike in 2004, the two parties held their conventions in consecutive weeks toward the end of the summer, making the general election that much more concentrated for both of them. Early voting is a relatively new phenomenon in American politics, and its influence varies widely by region. But significantly, Southwest states that have emerged as McCain-Obama battlegrounds this year -- Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico -- are hotbeds of early voting, as is Florida, where one million people have already requested a ballot. But early voting is far less prevalent in contested Eastern states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Paul Gronke, the director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon, said he expected 33 percent of the votes in this presidential election to be cast early, a sharp increase from the 20 percent of the 2004 election. In the 2006 midterm elections, 25 percent of the votes were cast early.
''The numbers have accelerated as the campaigns have learned about this,'' Mr. Gronke said. But, he said, this remains to some extent new territory, and he can see circumstances where early voting may not reach the levels expected.
''If the race is very competitive,'' he said, ''citizens may hold their ballots.''
Early evidence of how campaigns are adjusting to this new calendar can be seen in spending patterns on television advertising. Evan Tracey, the president of Campaign Media Analysis Group, a company that monitors political advertising, said his group had charted a big surge in spending in Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico in recent days. Those are all states viewed as big early-voting targets.
In addition, Mr. Tracey said, Mr. McCain went on the air on Sept. 1 in Florida, another state where early voting is viewed as crucial, after weeks in which he let Mr. Obama have the field to himself there.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: John McCain and Sarah Palin, above, as well as Barack Obama visited Ohio on Tuesday, a state where voting starts Sept. 30.(PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHEN CROWLEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES)
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The Washington Post
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
Reduced Dominance Is Predicted for U.S.;
Analyst Previews Report to Next President
BYLINE: Joby Warrick and Walter Pincus; Washington Post Staff Writers
SECTION: A-SECTION; Pg. A02
LENGTH: 1132 words
An intelligence forecast being prepared for the next president on future global risks envisions a steady decline in U.S. dominance in the coming decades, as the world is reshaped by globalization, battered by climate change, and destabilized by regional upheavals over shortages of food, water and energy.
The report, previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community's top analyst, also concludes that the one key area of continued U.S. superiority -- military power -- will "be the least significant" asset in the increasingly competitive world of the future, because "nobody is going to attack us with massive conventional force."
Fingar's remarks last week were based on a partially completed "Global Trends 2025" report that assesses how international events could affect the United States in the next 15 to 17 years. Speaking at a conference of intelligence professionals in Orlando, Fingar gave an overview of key findings that he said will be presented to the next occupant of the White House early in the new year.
"The U.S. will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished," Fingar said, according to a transcript of the Thursday speech. He saw U.S. leadership eroding "at an accelerating pace" in "political, economic and arguably, cultural arenas."
The 2025 report will lay out what Fingar called the "dynamics, the dimensions, the drivers" that will shape the world for the next administration and beyond. In advance of its completion, intelligence officials have begun briefing the major presidential candidates on the security threats that they would be likely to face in office. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) received an initial briefing Sept. 2, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) expected to receive one in the coming days, intelligence officials said.
As described by Fingar, the intelligence community's long-term outlook has darkened somewhat since the last report in 2004, which also focused on the impact of globalization but was more upbeat about its consequences for the United States. The new view is in line with that of prominent economists and other global thinkers who have argued that America's influence is shrinking as economic powerhouses such as China assert themselves on the global stage. The trend is described in the new book "The Post-American World," in which author Fareed Zakaria writes that the shift is not about the "decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else."
In the new intelligence forecast, it is not just the United States that loses clout. Fingar predicts plummeting influence for the United Nations, the World Bank and a host of other international organizations that have helped maintain political and economic stability since World War II. It is unclear what new institutions can fill the void, he said.
In the years ahead, Washington will no longer be in a position to dictate what new global structures will look like. Nor will any other country, Fingar said. "There is no nobody in a position . . . to take the lead and institute the changes that almost certainly must be made in the international system," he said.
The predicted shift toward a less U.S.-centric world will come at a time when the planet is facing a growing environmental crisis, caused largely by climate change, Fingar said. By 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarcity of fresh water will plague large swaths of the globe, from northern China to the Horn of Africa.
For poorer countries, climate change "could be the straw that breaks the camel's back," Fingar said, while the United States will face "Dust Bowl" conditions in the parched Southwest. He said U.S. intelligence agencies accepted the consensual scientific view of global warming, including the conclusion that it is too late to avert significant disruption over the next two decades. The conclusions are in line with an intelligence assessment produced this summer that characterized global warming as a serious security threat for the coming decades.
Floods and droughts will trigger mass migrations and political upheaval in many parts of the developing world. But among industrialized states, declining birthrates will create new economic stresses as populations become grayer. In China, Japan and Europe, the ratio of working adults to seniors "begins to approach one to three," he said.
The United States will fare better than many other industrial powers, in part because it is relatively more open to immigration. Newcomers will inject into the U.S. economy a vitality that will be absent in much of Europe and Japan -- countries that are "on a good day, highly chauvinistic," he said.
"We are just about alone in terms of the highly developed countries that will continue to have demographic growth sufficient to ensure continued economic growth," Fingar said.
Energy security will also become a major issue as India, China and other countries join the United States in seeking oil, gas and other sources for electricity. The Chinese get a good portion of their oil from Iran, as do many U.S. allies in Europe, limiting U.S. options on Iran. "So the turn-the-spigot-off kind of thing -- even if we could do it -- would be counterproductive."
Nearly absent from Fingar's survey was the topic of terrorism. Since the last such report, the intelligence community has projected a declining role for al-Qaeda, which was deemed likely to become "increasingly decentralized, evolving into an eclectic array of groups, cells, and individuals." Inspired by al-Qaeda, "regionally based groups, and individuals labeled simply as jihadists -- united by a common hatred of moderate regimes and the West -- are likely to conduct terrorist attacks," the 2004 document said.
The new assessment saw a continued threat from Iran, however. Fingar predicted steady progress in the Islamic republic's attempts to create enriched uranium, the essential fuel used in nuclear weapons and commercial power reactors. For now, however, there is no evidence that Iran has resumed work on building a weapon, Fingar said, echoing last year's landmark National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which concluded that warhead-design work had halted in 2003.
He said Iran's ultimate decision on whether to build nuclear weapons depended on how its leaders viewed their "security requirement" -- whether they thought their government sufficiently safe in a region surrounded by traditional enemies.
Iranians are "more scared of their neighbors than many think they ought to be," Fingar said. But he noted that the United States had eliminated two of Iran's biggest enemies: Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
"The United States took care of Iran's principal security threats," he said, "except for us, which the Iranians consider a mortal threat."
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The Washington Post
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Suburban Edition
My 38.9 Million Fellow Americans . . .
BYLINE: Lisa de Moraes
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C07
LENGTH: 604 words
Viewers flocked to Republicans and rich kids last week, but vampires did not fare so well. We're sure that's pregnant with meaning -- we'll get back to you on that.
Here's a look at the week's nominees and also-rans:
WINNERS
Palin/McCain. Turns out GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain doesn't have to do better than name Tina Fey his vice presidential choice if he wants his acceptance speech to attract even more viewers than Sen. Barack Obama's. One week after the Democratic nominee's speech clocked 38.4 million viewers across multiple broadcast and cable nets -- breaking the record for most watched convention acceptance speech -- McCain eclipsed him by attracting 38.9 million. And Obama got a run for his money when Fey, er, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, clocked 37 million viewers with her speech to the GOP confab.
Fox News Channel. The cable news net's coverage of McCain's speech clocked 9.2 million viewers one night after it logged 9.04 million for Palin's speech. Both telecasts landed in the weekly top 10 programs and are FNC's third- and fourth-highest-rated ever. Fueled by Republican National Convention coverage, FNC averaged 4.2 million prime-time viewers for the week, beating broadcaster ABC.
"90210." CW's redo of Fox's classic soap scored the week's No. 1 ranking among 18-to-34-year-old chicks, the net's target audience. The Zip code, coupled with season debuts of "One Tree Hill," "Gossip Girl" and "Top Model," catapulted CW to No. 1 among all broadcasters for the week with those 18-34 women -- a rare win in any niche for the network.
MTV's Video Music Awards. The cheesetastic Russell Brand-hosted trophy show snagged an average of 8.4 million viewers, to finish right behind FNC's McCain and Palin speech numbers for the week -- and up dramatically from last year's VMA crowd of 7.1 mil.
"Raising the Bar." An average of 7.7 million tuned in for the premiere of Steven Bochco's TNT lawyer drama, making it the biggest series-opening audience in ad-supported cable history.
LOSERS
"True Blood." HBO's vampire drama started slowly Sunday, averaging 1.4 million viewers at 9 in its first telecast. (A repeat at 10:30 logged 672,000 more.) While this is certainly better than last year's unveiling of HBO's "Tell Me You Love Me," which attracted 910,000 viewers in its premiere, it's nowhere near the 4.6 million who watched the opening of "Big Love" in March 2006 or the first telecast of "John From Cincinnati," which HBO perpetrated on an unsuspecting 3 million-plus in the summer of '07.
(In fairness, "John" enjoyed a "Sopranos" lead-in audience of nearly 12 million, while someone at HBO decided the best lead-in for "True Blood" would be a one-hour promo for "True Blood." And of course, viewers do a lot more DVR'ing these days, HBO telecasts episodes multiple times across a week, blah, blah, blah.)
ABC. Saddled with a last-minute, low-rated Hurricane Gustav special Monday at 10, a last-minute scrapping of a NASCAR race (due to weather) Saturday, and a low-rated end-of-summer "America United: Support the Troops" Sunday special, as well as a lineup riddled with repeats against originals on Fox, NBC and CW, ABC finished sixth in prime time for the week, behind not only NBC, CBS and Fox but also FNC and Univision.
The week's 10 most watched programs, in order, were NBC's Sunday night football, Thursday NFL special, Monday "Deal or No Deal," and Tuesday and Wednesday "America's Got Talent"; CBS's "60 Minutes"; Fox's "Bones"; Fox News Channel's Thursday coverage of McCain's acceptance speech and Wednesday coverage of Palin's acceptance speech; and NBC's coverage of McCain's speech.
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The Washington Post
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Every Edition
Three Presidents Get My Vote
SECTION: FOOD; Pg. F05
LENGTH: 841 words
"Who would you rather have a beer with?"
In presidential politics, that simple question has become a litmus test for a candidate's likability and, it follows, his likelihood of getting elected.
In 2004, according to a Zogby/Williams Identity Poll, 57 percent of undecided voters said they would rather toss back a beer with President George W. Bush than with Democratic nominee John Kerry (even though Bush doesn't drink). During last spring's Democratic campaign, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama chugged beer to counter charges of elitism. (Obama made one Raleigh, N.C., bartender very happy by tipping $18 for a $2 glass of Pabst.) More recently, washingtonpost.com blogger Chris Cillizza called Obama running mate Joseph Biden "the kind of guy voters can imagine themselves having a beer with."
I'd have a beer with any of them. The real question is, which beer?
John McCain's wife, Cindy, is chairwoman of an Anheuser-Busch distributorship, so an appropriate tipple for him might be Budweiser American Ale, the St. Louis company's latest attempt to court craft-beer drinkers. Bud American Ale is more middle-of-the-road than maverick, with caramel malt dominating the flavor, a crisp, dry finish and a touch of fruity hops. It's pleasant enough, but the PR material goes a bit overboard in asserting that "Budweiser American Ale defines a new standard of ale -- The American Ale." That will come as news to the brewers of Liberty Ale and Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, who set the parameters for American-style pale ale a generation ago.
Ad hype, like campaign speeches, shouldn't be taken too seriously.
Obama has his own beer connection. In Kenya, his father's birthplace, drinkers of a cut-rate brand called Senator Keg have unofficially renamed it "Obama Beer" to celebrate the Democratic candidate's rise to prominence. Senator Keg isn't exported here, but you can buy another Kenyan brand, Tusker. This European-style golden lager honors George Hurst, co-founder of Kenya Breweries, who was gored to death by a bull elephant. The name is almost an omen for Obama, who will have to dodge another elephant, the GOP pachyderm.
Let's extend this fantasy game further. Suppose you could have a beer with any U.S. president, living or dead. Who would be your barmate?
My one criterion: The president must enjoy the beer as much as I do. That narrows the field to three: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Grover Cleveland.
Washington was a home-brewer. One of his recipes, for a molasses-based brew, is preserved in the New York Public Library. Later in life he acquired a taste for porter, ordering up to "three gross" bottles at a time from a Philadelphia brewer named Robert Hare.
Jefferson was an oenophile, but when the War of 1812 cut off supplies of European wines, he turned to beermaking with an unbridled enthusiasm, producing up to 200 gallons a year of a wheat-based ale at Monticello. His brewer was a slave named Peter Hemings, older brother of the more famous Sally Hemings.
Williamsburg AleWerks, a microbrewery in the former Virginia capital, brews a Washington's Porter, full of roasty and bittersweet chocolate flavors, and a spritzy, golden Colonial Wheat Ale. Brewery manager Charles Haines acknowledges that these are not re-creations of old recipes. He says his porter, brewed with seven malts, is more complex than the versions Washington would have quaffed (and it contains no molasses). As for his wheat beer, Haines explains that golden-colored ales brewed with lightly toasted grains were unknown in Jefferson's era: "They roasted grain in ovens, they did it in skillets. Everything was brown."
Does Haines think Washington or Jefferson would have appreciated his beers? "Everybody liked beer back then!" he replies.
Grover Cleveland was our only president to serve non-consecutive terms (1885-1889 and 1893-1897). While rising through the political ranks in Buffalo, he was a frequenter of bars and a prodigious consumer of lager. He groused of the White House fare: "I must go to dinner. I wish it was to eat a pickled herring, a swiss cheese and a chop at Louis' [his favorite saloon] instead of that French stuff I shall find."
If I were clinking glasses with Grover today, I'd choose a pre-Prohibition-style lager, maybe Participation Lager from Magic Hat Brewing in South Burlington, Vt. It's brewed with 20 percent flaked maize for extra smoothness, but it has a firm malt body and a landslide of flowery Hallertau and Columbus hops. This special-release brew is available only in the Participation Variety 12-Pak, on sale through Election Day.
Suitable for any chief executive is Capitol City Brewing's Election Ale, a crisp, drinkable golden ale to debut Sept. 24 at the local brew pub chain's three branches. After Election Day, head brewer Mike McCarthy says, he'll add an extra ingredient (probably honey) from the winning candidate's home state to create Inaugurale, which will linger until the cheering is over on Jan. 20.
Greg Kitsock's Beer column appears every other week. He can be reached at food@washpost.com
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Washingtonpost.com
September 10, 2008 Wednesday 11:00 AM EST
Post Politics Hour;
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
BYLINE: Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post National Political Reporter, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: LIVEONLINE
LENGTH: 4850 words
HIGHLIGHT: Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Anne E. Kornblut was online Wednesday, Sept. 10 at noon ET to discuss the latest in political news.
Kornblut also wrote this article in The Post's Sunday Outlook: What's Fair Game With Sarah Palin? (Post, Sept. 8)
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
____________________
Anne E. Kornblut: Hi all! Busy week -- and I'm chatting with you from the McCain/Palin event in Fairfax, so please forgive me if there are pauses. But let's go ahead and get started!
_______________________
Anonymous: As I watch the evening campaign coverage on TV, I am left with only one question: When is Sen. McCain going to stop hiding behind Gov. Palin's skirt?
Anne E. Kornblut: Is this a metaphorical question, or a literal one? Or both? Either way, you make an interesting point. It does seem as though it is Palin's ticket now, and that the race (at least on the Republican side) is about electing her, does it not?
_______________________
Toronto: Did the Democrats really believe the Obama campaign would be a cakewalk? I know the media said so, but you say that every election cycle. Hell, you said Hillary was "inevitable." Is that the source of today's panic? Barack Obama is a terrific candidate with a lead, but can he come from behind? If yesterday is any guide, he's not much of a counterpuncher. And the media's support of Obama actually hurts -- when people hear the "lipstick on a pig" and hear the crowd roar on YouTube, but The Washington Post ignores it, they know the media is in the tank. You wouldn't ignore a similar line from McCain. Is the media to blame for Obama's unpreparedness for a real fight?
Anne E. Kornblut: Well, this is a pretty curious posting. If you actually look at today's Washington Post, you'll see the lipstick story to which you refer. Also, we have quoted the Obama campaign repeatedly as saying that this will be a tough race -- they even said it when some of the pundits out there said it should be easy for them. So you should work on your facts! But thanks for writing in.
_______________________
Paducah, Ky.: Yeah, Palin won't give you interviews, so you are checking a few facts. As a major paper, what are you doing to overcome the unwillingness to talk? How about some news analyses. How about some focus groups and special polls? You seem to be throwing in the sponge. Get over it and cover her.
Anne E. Kornblut: Excuse me? (And what's with all the hostility today, people?) We are, believe it or not, covering Palin very diligently -- and as best we can given that she does not want to be interviewed or do press conferences. As soon as this event here in Fairfax is finished, in fact, I'm going to be getting on a flight with her to Alaska -- and will continue trying to cover her there. We also have a team of reporters on the ground up there, and have done a lot of analyses of her record. So, keep reading, and we'll keep reporting. Believe me -- that's our job, and we want to do it.
_______________________
St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Anne -- thanks for chatting today and for your excellent recent reporting on Gov. Palin. The McCain campaign has been amazingly successful at deflecting questions about where they stand on issues and on Gov. Palin's inconsistent statements, and are turning the election into a referendum on who said what about lipstick. As a voter I find this extremely frustrating and demoralizing, but it doesn't seem to show any sign of abating. Is this strategy likely to continue to work? The thought of six more weeks of this type of pitched battle is more than I can bear.
Anne E. Kornblut: If you will look at the most recently released Washington Post poll, you'll see an interesting number -- Obama does well among voters who care most about the issues, while McCain does better among voters who are focused on personal stories and personality. (Points to our polling division for noting this to us reporters today). In that context, the conference calls and the attention the McCain cmapaign is trying to draw to the lipstick question is understandable.
_______________________
Hampton Cove, Ala.: I am watching Barack Obama attack John McCain and Sarah Palin in a public school in Norfolk during school hours. Yet, your newspaper ran a headline story that McCain is not allowed to hold a rally in a Fairfax County high school because it is wrong to use public schools for political purposes. As you find nothing Obama does is wrong, do you think Obama might be slightly less right for using a public school to attack his opponents?
washingtonpost.com: McCain Rally Moves to Park As School Debate Continues (Post, Sept. 10)
Anne E. Kornblut: This is a good question, and it was just raised here at this rally in Fairfax by one of the introductory speakers. I do know that when I was covering Hillary Clinton, she held a rally at a local school in Virginia as well. Our Metro staff has (as you know) been all over this story, so I'll make sure they're aware of it, also. My gut tells me it's a local school-by-school issue, but don't quote me on that -- I just don't know.
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San Diego: I think it's funny to watch Team Obama panic. There's a long way from here to Nov. 4 ... why do you think they're so utterly thrown by a momentary bounce in the polls? Obama's gone so negative so fast -- it's really a total flip-flop from a guy who just told us in his much-lauded Denver speech that he wanted the race to be about issues, not personalities. If so, why the "lipstick on a pig"? Why call McCain a liar?
washingtonpost.com: McCain Camp Sees An Insult in a Saying (Post, Sept. 10)
Anne E. Kornblut: You know what's actually interesting, as one who watches the Obama campaign and its advisers up close, is that they really aren't panicking -- they've been more consistent than I think I've seen any campaign, except perhaps the Bush campaign in 2000 and 2004, which they always described as being like a "marathon." Their answer to questions about the polls is that they're not worried, and a few tough lines aside, they don't seem to have changed their strategy at all.
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Dripping Springs, Texas: Is the Anne Kilkenny letter mostly factual or mostly false?
washingtonpost.com: E-mail on Sarah Palin grabs spotlight (Tampa Bay Tribune, Sept. 6)
Anne E. Kornblut: I got that letter, and the answer is, I do not know. I have not published it myself, because I can't verify it.
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Richmond, Va.: Shouldn't someone tell Obama that he can't win by being so sexist to Govenor Palin? Is he that desperate? He is that desperate!
Anne E. Kornblut: I have a suspicion that the Obama campaign knows this -- especially after running against Sen. Clinton for so long. I also have a hard time believing that the "lipstick on a pig" line from last night was sexist -- if that's what you're referring to. If anything, it seems that the definition of sexism is being rapidly expanded to include anything the other side doesn't like -- which is not to excuse insensitivity when it is real, but is just to say that both sides probably need to be careful of crying wolf when it is not.
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Louisville, Ky.: Hello, Anne. Thanks for taking questions today -- I enjoy following your articles. The other day on NPR I heard a wrap up of the campaign day. NPR reported that Palin was still touting her Bridge to Nowhere experience as evidence of her reformer status. NPR immediately had a sort of clarification (that discussed her being for it in her 2006 campaign and how she eventually did not support it but kept the money and spent it anyway).
I was so pleased to hear them do that. The Post has been very clear about this as well. So much criticism of the "media" is for reporting spoken inaccuracies without the reporter's clarification. Is there any guideline there at The Post for introducing these sorts of clarifications? I wish all reporters would do this. Also, why do you think the McCain Campaign still is encouraging her to tout this, as well as the bit about putting the governor's plane on eBay, when they have been discredited? How does the McCain group justify that?
Anne E. Kornblut: I did not hear the NPR clarification; thanks for drawing it to my attention. We're now in that season of the campaign -- with accusations flying, both sides responding, and, in this case, added into the mix, a candidate whose record everyone is just getting to know rather than having memorized. As for the McCain campaign's claims, yes, they are still using her opposition to the bridge to nowhere as a big applause line at events, as well as the eBay sale of the jet. But if you parse their words, they are being technically accurate -- Palin says she "put the jet up for sale on eBay," which is true, although she fails to mention that she did not sell it on eBay, and clearly wants to leave the impression that she did.
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Baltimore: I just saw a clip of McCain using the same "lipstick" expression a few years ago in reference to Hillary Clinton's health care plan. Is this sort of faux outrage overreaching? Aren't they risking getting dunned for political correctness, especially since they're the anti-PC party?
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for bringing up my favorite phrase of this campaign -- "faux umbrage," or as I started calling it back during the primaries, "fauxmbrage." The thing is, it has a tendency to work. Both sides are really riled. And the McCain campaign is clearly enjoying revving up their supporters at every grievance, real or imagined.
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Washington:"Lipstick on a pig" probably was innocent. But his continued attacks on Palin -- trying to diminish her by calling her inexperienced and constantly harping on her motherhood -- isn't innocent at all. It's calculated, and it's a continuation of a pattern of attacks we saw him use against Hillary Clinton. Given that Obama still needs to win over the Clinton supporters, how in the world did they decide on attacking Palin as a strategy? It's unbelievable!
Anne E. Kornblut: You are probably right on this -- it's a very fine line he is trying to walk. As one of the earlier posters suggested, he just can't throw up his hands and hope Palin goes away; yet running against her is complicated, for exactly the reasons you mention.
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Detroit: The McCain campaign has been able to get away with claiming that the press unfairly reported on and gave attention to Palin's pregnant unwed daughter -- yet even to this day, little attention has been given by the press to the "joke" that McCain made more than a decade ago about Clinton's daughter. I don't see why the latter received so little publication at the time and is not published now in light of the complaints of the McCain campaign regarding treatment of a child of a politician in the news. If people knew what McCain had said, I think they would look at him differently.
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for this. It's a great point.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: When Dana Milbank and others reported that the Secret Service was headed to Romney's sister's house, leading many to speculate (and was correctly speculated when the Secret Service went to Joe Biden's house) that Romney was the vice presidential pick, what was that all about? Was that a diversion tactic to throw people off? If so, is that a proper use of Secret Service resources?
washingtonpost.com: McCain VP Update: Secret Service Says They Did Not Sweep Romney's Sister's House (U.S. News & World Report, Aug. 28)
Anne E. Kornblut: I have absolutely no idea. I will ask Dana to please carry out that line of reporting.
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Re: "When Lies Become Facts": Jonathan Weisman's piece today was interesting and depressing. In light of the way that what candidates say becomes "true" despite ... well, the truth ... I am wondering what you think the media can do to prevent this situation. It seems that, often, candidates' claims get front-page stories (and clear headlines), while stories that question the veracity of these claims often are relegated to the inner sections of the paper and the inner sections of an article -- i.e. somewhere in paragraph ten. Why do you think there are hardly ever stories headlined something like "Palin's Claims about Bridge to Nowhere Untrue" on the front page? Has nothing been learned about the need to call spades spades in the past eight years?
washingtonpost.com: As Campaign Heats Up, Untruths Can Become Facts Before They're Undone (Post, Sept. 10)
Anne E. Kornblut: What can I say -- we're trying to hold both sides to account, and sometimes we get it right, and sometimes we don't. But your remarks are welcome, thank you.
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Land of Faux: What about faux racism? The governor of New York says that "community organizer" is code for "black," and that is why Palin mocked the phrase in her convention speech.
Anne E. Kornblut: I heard that, too -- and I have to say, I also wasn't aware that "fairy tale" was going to strike people as racist, either, back during the primaries. This is where it gets tricky. I feel qualified, as a woman, to make a judgment call on what is sexist. Less so when it comes to race. Is that ideal? Probably not. Suggestions?
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Dunn Loring, Va.: Much has been made of Gov. Palin's one-time support of the Bridge to Nowehere (including today's Post article) even though she changed her mind once the high price became known. However, The Post and other media have studiously ignored the fact that both Obama and Biden voted for this pork project. Isn't it worse to support such wasteful spending than to change your mind and oppose the project?
Anne E. Kornblut: Those are all good points. I think the point of the Bridge to Nowhere coverage has been that she is claiming she always opposed it, but did not (where Obama and Biden are not running on a platform of opposing the Bridge to Nowhere). But thank you, that is a great thing to bring up.
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Reston, Va.: Hi Anne. With respect to the "campaigning in a school" topic, it is indeed a local issue. The Fairfax County School Board apparently has a rule prohibiting the use of public schools for campaign purposes during the day while school is in session. The school system where Obama is speaking has no such rule. I suppose one could question whether or not the typically Democratic-leaning Fairfax County would have raised a kerfluffel if Obama asked to speak.
Question for you: NBC Nightly News ran a story last night saying that Palin didn't sell the plane on eBay, but instead listed it on eBay where it failed to sell, and then sold it through conventional means. Doesn't this sound like splitting hairs? And doesn't the media risk the chance of coming off as being petty in their effort to be seen as "truth" detectors?
Anne E. Kornblut: Actually, I saw that NBC piece, and thought it was a good one. McCain has said on the campaign trail that Palin sold the plane on eBay and made a profit. That's just factually innacurate. I'll leave it to readers to decide what is splitting hairs, but still think it's our job to separate truth from untruth. And thanks for the Virginia update.
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Accusations, yet no proof: What are these people talking about? When exactly has Obama talked about Palin's motherhood -- oh yeah, when he said her family was off-limits? I think we need to go back to a literacy test for voting.
Anne E. Kornblut: A fair point. Obama has not mentioned Palin's family at all, He's stuck to her record as far as I am aware. I'm heading back out with him again next week and will double check.
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Mansfield, Ohio: Your article titled "What's Fair..." asked some what-if questions about how the GOP might act differently if all the nit-picky things about Palin being scrutinized in the media belonged to a Democrat like Hillary. However, isn't the better question to ask "how would we reporters act differently" if Sara Palin were a Democrat? You just referred to The Post's reporters already on the ground in Alaska. How many reporters were on the ground in Wilmington, Del., the week after Obama chose Biden?
Anne E. Kornblut: It's a very good question. We actually had a team of reporters covering Biden, too -- and for a lot longer, because we knew he was on Obama's short list, so we had time to prepare. The major difference, I think, is that Biden has been reported on over and over for many decades, so there was just less to discover for the first time, whereas Palin has been one of many governors (and a new one) so she was new to the scene. But believe me -- we are equal opportunity diggers.
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Running against her is complicated: Why? If women want to play with the big boys, they need to toughen up. If they want to run for office like men do, if they want to hold office that only men have held, then they need to be able to take any criticism and not run behind their gender. Women can't have it both ways -- they can't be immune to any and all attacks on their policies because they're women. If Palin can't take the heat of the campaign, perhaps she should get back into the kitchen.
Anne E. Kornblut: I'm going to leave the substance of this email alone, but just say that this was the attitude Sen. Clinton had when she first got into the race -- that she was going to have to be tough and withstand a lot of garbage. That is probably a requirement for anyone, male or female, running for higher office.
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Washington: If the people at whom an untruth is targeted (aka "swing voters") have an inherrent mistrust of mainstream media, then does debunking a claim on the front page of The Washington Post ("When Lies Become Fact" ran on page 1 today) have any effect on voters? Bridge to Nowhere, Saddam links to al-Qaeda, tax issues ... is there any evidence that fact-checking can break a myth spread by a campaign?
Anne E. Kornblut: Who knows? Are you saying I should quit and go make money? For an interesting musing on this question, please see my colleague EJ Dionne's column today.
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Washington: After additional investigation, it seems as though Sarah Palin was not a member of the Alaska Independence Party but that her husband, Todd, had been a member for several years. While it would have been a very serious issue had she been a member, I remain concerned about the fact that her husband was a member for so long, especially given the fact that he apparently is her closest advisor. How much of an issue do you think his membership in the AIP ultimately will be?
Anne E. Kornblut: I really have no idea, but thank you for bringing it up. I think that Alaska generally is a subject that is new to most voters in the lower 48, so I could see it cutting either way -- freaking out people who don't understand it, or being seen as so remote as to be unimportant.
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Montgomery Village, Md.: Anne, I thought I heard several weeks ago that Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain would be making some "nonpolitical" joint appearance tomorrow on Sept. 11 and discussing the importance of community service. Is this still happening? How tense might that be given what has transpired in the past week?
Anne E. Kornblut: As far as I know, the event is still happening in NY -- and I have a feeling they will not be going out for cocktails afterward. That said, these guys are all accustomed to passing each other in hallways and green rooms around debate time, so I have no doubt they'll handle it just fine.
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Westcliffe, Colo.: You appear taller online than on MSNBC. Is it the lighting, or does Chris Matthews shrink the life forms around him, like the touch of Death shriveling flowers?
Anne E. Kornblut: Um, are you being short-ist? (Or is it height-ist?)
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Southwest Nebraska:"Lipstick on a pig" -- reference to Sarah Palin's appearance and right-wingedness, reference to Palin as Princess of Pork (now known as earmarks), or simply an innocent use of a popular phrase?
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for bringing up my favorite question in all of this, which is: Are we now no longer to discuss PORK BARREL SPENDING, in addition to lipstick?
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Arlington, Va.: One interesting angle on the "lipstick" controversy that hasn't gotten much coverage is that Obama's lines immediately preceding it had previously appeared almost verbatim in a Tom Toles cartoon. Do you think this is a problem for Obama, given the fact that his running mate previously has been accused of plagiarism?
washingtonpost.com: The Toles cartoon in question.
Anne E. Kornblut: I actually think that's a much better question to be asking. These guys borrow lines from each other and others all the time (and Palin, of course, has only read from one script so far). But it is a very fair point, and thank you for raising it.
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Brigantine, N.J.: I don't understand how Washington can get so lathered about the Obama campaign accusing Palin of being inexperienced. She is. Does Washington really feel comfortable with the possibility of a Palin presidency? To be fair, Washington would be justified in accusing Obama of the same weakness -- but only if (s)he admits to the same failing in Palin.
Anne E. Kornblut: It's interesting, right? I don't know that it's Washington asking the question -- or that even it's Washington's to ask -- but instead voters. Do voters care about experience? We will find out to what extent. And in the meantime -- it's a question that was raised about Obama, and will be about Palin.
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Arlington, Va.: Hi, Anne. You said earlier that you will be traveling with Gov. Palin on her flight back to Alaska later today. On the campaign trail, does Gov. Palin speak to reporters at all (i.e. off the record), or has she been completely shielded from anyone who wants to ask her substantive questions? What do you think about her upcoming interview with Charlie Gibson?
Anne E. Kornblut: I just met up with her campaign yesterday, but so far she has not spoken to reporters, or come anywhere near us. I tried to watch her as closely as I could on the ropelines in Ohio and Pennsylvania yesterday, and she did not appear to be answering regular people's questions, either
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Tampa, Fla.: If attacking Palin for lacking experience is sexist, then wasn't attacking Obama for lacking experience racist? And will Palin hide behind her skirts and refuse to have a female journalist interview her? Palin can cry sexism when a man puts tough questions to her, but she can't when the questioner is a woman. Hillary had the guts to face a hostile press, and didn't cry sexism when she was pressed on the issues. Palin seems to lack Hillary's courage.
Anne E. Kornblut: A lot of people seem to feel the same way here. It's a very interesting question, that is for sure.
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Anchorage, Alaska: Do voters care about experience? After the eight years of George Walker Bush, experience never will be a requirement for the job of president. In fact, it should never even come up in conversation.
Anne E. Kornblut: What I love is that we have a new Alaska constituency down here in Washington. Thank you for writing in.
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Re: "Nit-Picky Things": More of a comment than a question -- remember when Al Gore was running for president in 2000? Everyone kept calling him a liar and it stuck. Why does Sarah seem to be wearing teflon?
Anne E. Kornblut: Is she? She has been out in the public eye for a little over the week, and hasn't taken any questions yet or deviated from her speech script. I have a feeling that there is a lot more to come in this campaign. Or maybe I am wrong.
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Arlington, Va.: Hi Anne, no hostility here -- your chats are one of the few reasons to smile at work! How about a softball question for you? When the election is over, and you get a long break from all this chaos, what is the first thing you are going to do on your break?
Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you so much! You know what? I am merely hoping it actually ends on Nov. 4 like it's supposed to...no recount this year, please! And then I will start to think about it.
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Pennsylvania: What would happen if a Washington Post reporter billed the company to the tune of some $16,000 for more than 300 per diems out of fewer than 600 days' employment (while instead spending those nights at home)? Seems to me that having to reimburse The Post and getting fired probably would be the least of that reporter's problems; maybe criminal charges, too? Do you think some Republican fat-cat will donate the cash for Teflon Sarah to repay the State of Alaska, and then she'll smear the media for raising the matter in the first place?
washingtonpost.com: Palin Billed State for Nights Spent at Home (Post, Sept. 9)
Anne E. Kornblut: I had this exact same thought (and no, Washington Post bean counters reading this, I am not going to try it as an experiment). But it seems a lot of people probably do have to be more accoutable with their expenses than that.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Hello. I am really surprised that more high-profile Democratic female governors, senators and representatives (Clinton, Sebilius, Pelosi, etc.) have not yet mobilized more to counter the enthusiasm for Palin. It would make much more sense for them to go after Palin on Obama's behalf, given that he and Biden have to tread lightly in attacking her.
I think it is extremely important that Sen. Clinton shout from the rooftops, particularly to her former supporters, about the extreme differences between her and Palin. Do you expect to see more Democratic women legislators mobilizing on this front? It just doesn't seem to me that they are doing much, when they could be making a huge difference.
Anne E. Kornblut: My understanding is that Sen. Clinton does not want to get into it in this way -- yet. She's not running against Palin, and she knows all too well how she can energize the Republican base. But I am hearing from a lot of Clinton supporters who feel the same way -- pleading her, almost.
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Anonymous:"I tried to watch her as closely as I could on the ropelines in Ohio and Pennsylvania yesterday, and she did not appear to be answering regular people's questions, either." The AP's experience is similar. To someone skeptical of the Palin selection, this doesn't exactly give me a warm feeling.
Anne E. Kornblut: We'll see how long it lasts...
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Is this a first for this election?: Since when has Alaska and Hawaii played such an important role in the elections? Nearly 50 years since they have attained statehood, and they are each playing an important role. Interesting?
Anne E. Kornblut: FASCINATING. Yes.
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Iowa: The new McCain attack ad on Obama's support for a sex education bill ran on my TV station this morning, and I have to say it was the sleaziest thing I've seen in years in any political campaign. Joe Klein blogged on TIME saying the same thing. What happened to the "honorable" campaign pledges?
Anne E. Kornblut: Thoughts, anyone? EJ Dionne also has a good column on it.
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Chicago: As you cover these campaigns, are you meeting people who are smart or zealous (or both)? In other words, politics has become such a cynical game played for its own ends -- complete with spinmeisters and bloviators who do nothing but attack and mislead -- that I'm having a hard time believing that sincere, well-meaning Americans still participate. When you walk through the crowd at a daytime McCain-Palin rally, for example, are you meeting informed citizen voters or partisan hacks? This campaign took a very nasty turn recently, and the way America has reacted to it leaves me very depressed. Thanks.
Anne E. Kornblut: All of the above. There are a lot of very genuine people on both sides -- and people who are completely insincere as well. But thank you for the question and hang in there. I'm a believer that the worst thing that could ever happen would be for people who care to give up, regardless of which side they're on.
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Anne E. Kornblut: Apologies all, but the event in Fairfax just ended, and I have to pull up stakes! Will speak to you all from Alaska...
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Washingtonpost.com
September 10, 2008 Wednesday 9:28 AM EST
Palin Panic
BYLINE: Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Staff Writer, washingtonpost.com
SECTION: OPINION
LENGTH: 2089 words
HIGHLIGHT: Forget Iraq and health care. Forget the polls and focus groups. There's a new explanation why Sarah Palin is the surprise hit of the season.
Forget Iraq and health care. Forget the polls and focus groups. There's a new explanation why Sarah Palin is the surprise hit of the season.
"She's sexy. Men want a sexy woman," says CNBC's Donny Deutsch. "Woman want to idealize about a sexy woman. . . . She's a lioness. . . . Women want to be her. Men want to mate with her."
What men are really saying, Deutsch adds, is, "I want her laying next to me in bed."
How could I have missed that? It's all about her looks! No wonder we can't stop talking about her. (Hat tip: TV Newser.)
There is something to the notion that Palin has always run with motherhood at the center of her political persona. It's also true that she has spooked many feminists who want more women in high office (as long as they're liberal) and coaxed from many conservatives a new concern about sexist media coverage. It is a measure of how Palin has taken over this campaign that the latest satirical image of her online, courtesy of Salon.com, is that of a dominatrix, complete with riding crop and (for a touch of humor) a moose. Photoshopped pix floating around the Net also show her posing in a bikini, toting an assault rifle.
She has certainly mounted an assault on the narrative of this election, dumbfounding all the pundits who said McCain's pick was "desperate" (VandeHei and Harris, Politico, Aug. 30). Now it's the media who are scrambling to explain how Hurricane Sarah has transformed the political landscape.
Want proof? The Project for Excellence in Journalism says that 60 percent of last week's stories were about her: "Palin enjoyed more coverage as a VP candidate during the GOP convention than Obama did a week earlier when he became the first person of color to accept the nomination for president of a major party."
Now to the panic part. With a new WP poll showing a 20-point swing among white women toward McCain-Palin, worried Democrats seem not to know what to do. An NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up 47-46: "McCain's pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to have not only attracted female voters, but boosted McCain's association with changing the country's direction, and energized members of the Republican Party." A CBS poll: "Gov. Sarah Palin has been well received: 52 percent have a favorable feeling towards her, while just 18 percent view her unfavorably. Obama running mate Sen. Joe Biden is less well known: 54 percent say they don't know enough about him to have an opinion."
The Obama campaign has already made an ad against Palin, but what presidential candidate runs against a number two? And yet, at his news conference yesterday, it was, hey, Senator, tell us what you think of Sarah Palin. And Obama was tepid, mostly observing how much press coverage she's gotten.
Some, like columnist Richard Cohen, are frustrated by Obama's demeanor, saying that the Illinois senator "for all his splendid virtues, seems to lack fight. Maybe he's worried about how America would receive an angry black man or maybe he's just too cool to ever get hot, but the result is that we have little insight into his passions: What, above all, does he care about?"
Here's my question. Will the public fascination with Palin trump a growing familiarity with her positions (against abortion even in cases of rape, for instance)? Will it trump revelations about her Alaska record or qualms about her relative lack of experience? Will it trump news stories saying she keeps claiming credit for killing the Bridge to Nowhere when she once supported it?
Which leads me to this what if: What if Obama had picked Hillary? Then McCain wouldn't have chosen Palin, or if he had, it wouldn't have mattered as much. Of course, Hillary would have brought plenty of other baggage: battle scars, Bill, undermining a change message. But she might have shored up Barack among women.
By the way, there are now Sarah Palin dolls.
The sex appeal question keeps popping up, as it does in the aforementioned Salon piece by Gary Kamiya (illustrated by the dominatrix):
"The tough-talking, gun-toting 'hockey mom' who believes that America's wars are God's will has fired up social conservatives, restarted the culture wars so beloved of Republicans, and shifted the election from being about issues into a personality contest.
"Post-convention polls are highly unreliable. But the same Democrats who were crowing with glee a week ago about McCain's off-the-wall choice are suddenly panicking. And you can't blame them. . . . It's all too plausible that just when victory is in sight, the most crucial election of our time could be tipped by the 11th-hour appearance of a slick, unqualified, right-wing extremist and religious zealot in designer glasses.
"Call it Moose ex Machina. Republican strategists have made it clear that the GOP's only chance to win is by reframing the election as a battle of images. And right now, Palin is the pinup queen in that war. She's feisty, she's a mom, she's from a frontier state, she guns down wolves from the air, she's a devout Evangelical, she poses as a reformer, and she insults the Washington elites.
"And large numbers of Americans think she's hot.
"This latter point cannot be underestimated. Iraq may be a quagmire, a new cold war may be looming, the economy may be tanking and the world may be heading toward environmental doom, but the presidential race may be decided by the perceived doability of the governor of Alaska."
For the record, I take no position on that burning national question.
"Barack Obama and his Democratic allies are intensifying their attacks on Sarah Palin," says Politico, "as her sustained and surprising central role in this race is upending Obama's strategy and often overshadowing McCain . . .
"The Obama campaign is calculating that it must reckon with Palin and the big public boost she has provided McCain in the past week. When Palin was first named, the Obama staff attacked, then he pulled back. Now, reflecting the threat posed by Palin, Obama is taking the unusual route of attacking the opposition's No. 2, a job that would more typically be left to Biden, who focused more on McCain and President Bush.
"The new tone is not without risk for the Democratic ticket. It's hard to take down an opponent without appearing overly or overtly partisan. It's also unusual to appear so focused on your opponent's running mate -- and not the nominee himself."
"Some Democrats are now worried about the perils of Obama's strategy," reports the L.A. Times, "saying that his campaign, instead of engaging the Alaska governor, should avoid any move that draws more attention to her and could enhance her appeal among the white, blue-collar voters who remain cool to Obama's candidacy."
Liberals, such as Josh Marshall, are increasingly training their fire on the running mate:
"We seem to be witnessing the first stirrings of a backlash and a dawning realization that the 'Sarah Palin' we've heard so much about over the last few days is a fraud of truly comical dimensions.
"The McCain camp has made her signature issue shutting down the Bridge to Nowhere. But as The New Republic put it, that's just 'a naked lie.' " Hmm. Subliminal reference, maybe?
"And pretty much the same thing has been written today in Newsweek, the Washington Post, the AP, the Wall Street Journal. Yesterday even Fox's Chris Wallace called out Rick Davis on it . . .
"On earmarks she's an even bigger crock. On the trail with McCain they're telling everyone that she's some kind of earmark slayer when actually, when she was mayor and governor, in both offices, she requested and got more earmarks than virtually any city or state in the country.
"Think about that. On the stump , not a single word that comes out of her mouth -- or not a single word that the McCain folks put in her mouth-- is anything but a lie. I know that sounds like hyperbole. But just go down the list. None of them bear out."
At the New Republic, Leon Wieseltier is rather exercised over Palin:
"These are not the times for right-wing screwball. The world is aflame and we have been pondering the knocked-up daughter of a pert and uncannily confident Alaskan mediocrity who was elevated to a national ticket for the purpose of changing the conversation. The Republicans wanted a new conversation, and they got one. Juno in Juneau! The anthropological harvest has been rich: what a carnival of double standards Palin provoked. I was unaware of the tender feelings of conservatives for sex outside of marriage. . . .
"Sarah Palin was chosen not for what she has done but for what she is -- for her value as an ideological illustration. Her distinction lies in her typicality, whereas the Democratic candidate is a monster of atypicality. She is, quite plainly, a stranger to skepticism. No McCain-like temperament here; only a vivacious dogmatism. As mayor of Wasilla she considered the banning of books from the town's library. Three of her five children exemplify articles of conservative faith. And she sees God in her own activities."
How's this for a HUGE scandal? Obama uses the phrase "lipstick on a pig" and has to deny that he was referring to the woman who described herself as a pit bull with lipstick. This led to a Drudge banner headline, and Hannity made it the lead story: Breaking News! When he asked Mike Huckabee about it, though, the former Arkansas governor said it was a common phrase and he'd cut Obama some slack.
And, not surprisingly, that other Rupert Murdoch property, the New York Post (which just endorsed McCain in a front-page editorial), hypes up the story with a screaming "HOLY SOW!" headline.
The reality-based reporting continues, as with this Wall Street Journal story:
"Sarah Palin and John Bitney go way back. They were in the same junior-high band class. Mr. Bitney was a key aide in Gov. Palin's 2006 gubernatorial campaign. When she took office, she gave Mr. Bitney a job as her legislative director, and a few months later stood beside him at a news conference and praised his work.
" 'Whatever you did, you did it right,' she told Mr. Bitney and his team. Seven weeks later she fired Mr. Bitney for what her spokeswoman now describes as 'poor job performance.'
"What happened in between? According to Mr. Bitney, Gov. Palin got a call from another old friend, Scott Richter, informing her that his wife, Debbie Richter, and Mr. Bitney were having an affair. Mr. Bitney had kept that secret from the governor, even as he told her of his divorce, he said.
"Allies of Republican presidential nominee John McCain like to point out that his running mate is the governor of the largest state in the union. But at times, Alaska seems more like a small town, run by folks with overlapping professional, political and personal ties that can be difficult to untangle."
At Slate, Dahlia Lithwick offers Joe Biden (remember him?) some advice for taking on Palin and her body of work:
"Everyone expects you to win the debate, and to trounce her on the substance. But the rules for debating Gov. Palin are different. If you lecture her, you'll be seen as a sexist bully. If you act too smart, you'll be seen as a sexist bully. If you condescend to her, you'll be seen as a sexist bully. So this longtime parliamentary debater (and longer-time female) is going to humbly offer you a few tips on how to debate a girl . . .
"Your real problem with Palin is not actually going to be her gender. Assuming you don't gaze fixedly at her breasts or ask her to fetch you a coffee, you probably won't do anything truly career wrecking on the sexism front. Your real problem is that Palin is not a serious candidate. I don't mean to suggest that she is not a serious person or even a seriously impressive first-term governor with real potential to shake up national politics. Nor do I want to imply for an instant that Palin is not a serious competitor. I just want to state here what you will be unable to say out loud at the debate: That by every obvious metric -- experience, knowledge base, decades of public service, policy experience, understanding of the world -- Palin is an unserious candidate for the vice presidency of the United States. And as any college debater will tell you, it's far harder to beat a clumsy opponent than a good one . . .
"But if you even hint that Sarah Palin may be opining on the Israel-Palestinian peace process with something Piper pulled off Wikipedia that morning, you will look like a snotty professor lecturing an undergrad. And if you look like a snotty professor, you will come across as a sexist bully."
I bet some Dems are wishing that Tim Pawlenty had gotten the nod.
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September 9, 2008 Tuesday
The New York Times on the Web
U.S. Backs Off Civilian Nuclear Pact With Russia
BYLINE: By STEVEN LEE MYERS and BRIAN KNOWLTON; Steven Lee Myers reported from Rome, and Brian Knowlton from Washington.
SECTION: Section ; Column 0; Foreign Desk; Pg.
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DATELINE: WASHINGTON
The Bush administration formally withdrew an agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia from congressional consideration on Monday.
''The president has notified Congress that he has today rescinded his prior determination regarding the U.S.-Russia agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation,'' the State Department said in a prepared statement. ''We make this decision with regret.''
The step is the most meaningful show of displeasure the United States has yet made over Russia's military action in Georgia. But it stops short of the more aggressive measures that some have proposed.
The White House has stepped up economic aid to Georgia, but it has so far ruled out providing military assistance. Similarly, the White House has not sought to impose economic sanctions against Russia or to revoke its membership in the Group of Eight, despite the strong warnings tha American officials issued as the crisis was unfolding that Russia would face consequences for its actions.
Withdrawing the pact from congressional consideration is a less definitive step than canceling it; withdrawal leaves open the possibility that this administration or a successor could resubmit the agreement to Congress if tensions subside. And the pact's chances of winning approval any time soon had already grown cloudy.
''After Russia's invasion of Georgia, it's not appropriate at this time'' to go ahead with the pact, a senior administration official said earlier on Monday, discussing the agreement on grounds of anonymity because the official announcement of the withdrawal had not yet been made.
The announcement came the same day that a European delegation in Moscow said it had received Russian reassurances concerning Georgia and its intentions there.
The withdrawal of the pact, which was submitted to Congress in May, could cost Russia billions of dollars in potential earnings, but will also unravel a program that is central to President George W. Bush's hopes of safely spreading the use of civilian nuclear energy.
The agreement would have cleared the way for extensive commercial nuclear trade, technology transfers and joint nuclear research between the two countries. And it would have allowed Russia to move forward with the lucrative business of importing, storing and possibly reprocessing spent nuclear fuel from U.S.-supplied reactors around the world.
''The Russians have some very ambitious goals in developing their civilian nuclear reactor export industry,'' said Andrew Kuchins, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, ''and to get to some of the newer markets, they have to have the United States stamp of approval.''
Michael O'Hanlon, a national security specialist with the Brookings Institution, said the deal should be viewed primarily as a commercial one. ''It's not trivial,'' he said, in evaluating the impact of its withdrawal. ''But it's also not the breadbasket of Russia.''
American officials have made clear the depth of their displeasure over Russia's brief war with Georgia. Vice President Dick Cheney, speaking Saturday at a conference in Italy after visiting Georgia, asked, called Russia's action an ''affront to civilized standards.''
But officials also acknowledge the importance of Russian cooperation with the United States on a range of sensitive topics. Ultimately, the senior administration official said, ''the focus is trying to get back to a good relationship.''
The nuclear cooperation agreement had already faced skepticism from American lawmakers who are angry at Russia for, among other things, resisting the imposition of tougher international sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
The Russia-Georgia clash in early August appears to have ended any remaining chance it had of passage, at least for now.
''Its chances to pass before Aug. 8 were going to be a challenge, and after Aug. 8, they're zero,'' said Mr. Kuchins. The withdrawal of the accord, he said, is ''a recognition of the political reality.''
In a statement, Representative John D. Dingell, the Michigan Democrat and chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, underlined the depth of congressional skepticism. ''Even without Russia's incursion into Georgia,'' he said, ''Russian support for Iranian nuclear and missile programs alone is enough to call into question the wisdom of committing to a 30-year agreement to transfer sensitive nuclear technologies and materials to Russia.''
Mr. Dingell said his committee would continue to monitor Russian support for Iranian nuclear programs.
Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, has angrily denounced the Russian action in Georgia and has called for ousting Russia from the Group of Eight. Mr. McCain also favors blocking Russian aspirations to join the World Trade Organization.
His Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, has said that Russia's application to the trade group should be reviewed.
''Unfortunately, the tendency right now on both sides is a strong momentum to kind of throw out the baby with the bathwater,'' Mr. Kuchins said. ''The Russians immediately announced that they're going to not abide by some W.T.O. accession agreements; they've bailed on NATO-Russia cooperation; and we respond by withdrawing the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. It's a bad action-reaction cycle.''
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September 9, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Forgoing Subsidy, Obama Team Presses Donors
BYLINE: By MICHAEL LUO and JEFF ZELENY
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; National Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1616 words
After months of record-breaking fund-raising, a new sense of urgency in Senator Barack Obama's fund-raising team is palpable as the full weight of the campaign's decision to bypass public financing for the general election is suddenly upon it.
Pushing a fund-raiser later this month, a finance staff member sent a sharply worded note last week to Illinois members of its national finance committee, calling their recent efforts ''extremely anemic.''
At a convention-week meeting in Denver of the campaign's top fund-raisers, buttons with the image of a money tree were distributed to those who had already contributed the maximum $2,300 to the general election, a subtle reminder to those who had failed to ante up.
The signs of concern have become evident in recent weeks as early fund-raising totals have suggested that Mr. Obama's decision to bypass public financing may not necessarily afford him the commanding financing advantage over Senator John McCain that many had originally predicted.
Presidential candidates in a general election have typically relied on two main sources of money: public financing, along with additional money their parties raise. In choosing to accept the public money, the McCain campaign now gets an $84 million cash infusion from the United States Treasury. Mr. McCain is barred from raising any more money for his own campaign coffers but can lean on money raised by the Republican National Committee, which has continued to exceed expectations.
Meanwhile, Obama campaign officials had calculated that with its vaunted fund-raising machine, driven by both small contributors over the Internet and a powerful high-dollar donor network, it made more sense to forgo public financing so they could raise and spend unlimited sums.
But the campaign is struggling to meet ambitious fund-raising goals it set for the campaign and the party. It collected in June and July far less from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's donors than originally projected. Moreover, Mr. McCain, unlike Mr. Obama, will have the luxury of concentrating almost entirely on campaigning instead of raising money, as Mr. Obama must do.
The Obama campaign does not have to report its August fund-raising totals until next week, so it is difficult to tally what it has in the bank at this point. A spokesman said that August was its best fund-raising month yet and that the campaign's fund-raising was on track. But the campaign finished July with slightly less cash on hand with the Democratic National Committee compared with Mr. McCain and the R.N.C. The Obama campaign has also been spending heavily, including several million more than the McCain campaign in advertising in August.
A California fund-raiser familiar with the party's August performance estimated that it raised roughly $17 million last month, a drop-off from the previous month, and finished with just $13 million in the bank.
Still, the Obama campaign said last Thursday that it had raised $10 million over the Internet in the 24 hours after the speech by Mr. McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, at the Republican convention on Wednesday, a one-day record for the campaign.
David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, said the majority of the Obama campaign's donors during the primary had yet to write checks for the general election. When they do, he said, it will be the equivalent of the large injection of cash the McCain campaign is receiving from the government -- about $70 million or $80 million.
''We're confident that we will meet our financial goals, but it's hard work,'' Mr. Plouffe said. ''We have a long way to go in the next six weeks.''
Members of Mr. Obama's national finance committee were briefed during the convention in Denver by Mr. Plouffe. Penny Pritzker, the Obama finance chairwoman, announced new state-by-state fund-raising goals. The decidedly business-oriented nature of the meeting reflected the burden on the Obama campaign in the coming weeks.
''I think McCain made the right call,'' said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who managed Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996. ''The Republican National Committee is strong. They have the resources to make this race almost financially on par.''
Democratic strategists disagree, pointing out that campaign finance rules impose serious restrictions on Mr. McCain's ability to fully make use of his party's bank account.
''It's not just the limitation of dollars when you accept public financing, it's the limitations that go with that spending,'' said Tad Devine, a senior strategist for Senator John Kerry's presidential campaign in 2004. Mr. Devine added that choosing to accept public financing was the Kerry campaign's single biggest mistake because it limited the campaign's resources.
The McCain campaign had by far its best fund-raising month ever in August, when it collected $47 million for its coffers and $22 million for the party, finishing the month with more than $100 million in the bank that will now be at the disposal of the R.N.C., according to several finance officials.
McCain fund-raisers said they also hope to raise an additional $100 million for the party in September and in October, taking advantage of the sizable contribution limits for the party. The party's Internet fund-raising has also picked up significantly since the announcement that Ms. Palin would join the Republican ticket. Combined with the $84 million from public financing, that would leave the McCain campaign with about $300 million at its disposal.
A recent e-mail message to McCain fund-raisers unveiled new incentives to spur them in their final push. For the primary, anyone who raised $100,000 or more earned the title of Trailblazer, while those who raised $250,000 or more became Innovators. Now Trailblazers who raise another $100,000 for the party for the general election can become Super-Trailblazers, and Innovators who raise another $250,000 earn the title of Super-Innovators.
Officials have also sketched out plans for Ms. Palin to do some 35 fund-raisers over the next two months. Mr. McCain will be dispatched for only four major fund-raisers: one on Monday night in Chicago, in which the party raised about $4 million; another next week in Miami, then Los Angeles and New York in October, finance officials said.
But even if the McCain finance team, led by Lewis M. Eisenberg, a former Goldman Sachs executive, and Wayne L. Berman, a Washington lobbyist, meets its goals, the campaign will have complete control over only the $84 million from the federal government, as well as $19 million in party money that is permitted to be used in coordination with the campaign.
The Republican Party can spend unlimited amounts of its money independent of the McCain campaign. It can also split the costs of so-called hybrid advertisements with the campaign, commercials that must promote not only Mr. McCain but also other Republicans down the ticket, something media strategists said could be ineffective when trying to create a cohesive message. Nevertheless, McCain fund-raisers pointed out the pressure is now on the Obama campaign to raise far more than it ever has before.
The Obama campaign set a goal in mid-June of raising $300 million for the campaign and about $150 million for the Democratic Party over four-and-a-half months, fund-raisers said. As of the end of July, however, the Obama campaign was well short of the $100 million a month pace it had set, taking in about $77 million between the campaign and the party that month.
It is not yet clear whether the Obama campaign will be able to ratchet up its fund-raising enough in the final two months of the campaign to make up the difference.
Even Mr. Obama's fund-raisers in Illinoiswere admonished in an e-mail message last Thursday to step up their efforts to ''show the other regions that his home state still has it.'' The donors, who were also reminded they had each promised to collect $300,000 for the campaign, were asked to raise $25,000 each for an event on Sept. 22 at a Chicago museum.
The new state-by-state goals unveiled by campaign officials in Denver stunned at least some in the room and included sizable increases for at least some states, according to interviews with several Obama fund-raisers.
The campaign has created a fund-raising committee, the Campaign for Change, which allows fund-raisers to harvest additional checks of more than $30,000 that will then be divvied up among state Democratic Parties in 18 battleground states, with Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan receiving the most.
In a campaign swing through South Florida over Labor Day weekend, Mr. Obama's vice-presidential running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., met with several small groups of major donors and sent out an e-mail appeal to supporters of his own unsuccessful presidential campaign, as well as to Jewish supporters. The effort brought in more than $1 million in four days.
Campaign officials expect their Internet fund-raising engine to ramp up as the election approaches. And they hope that much of the high-dollar fund-raising can be done without Mr. Obama. In the New York area alone, there are some 18 events planned in September, all with surrogates, including Mrs. Clinton, Caroline Kennedy and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.
But campaign officials conceded that Mr. Obama inevitably will have to make some appearances. On Friday night in New Jersey, Mr. Obama devoted five hours for two fund-raising events, including one at the home of the singer Jon Bon Jovi, in which the ticket was $30,800 a person. Mr. Obama is also scheduled to appear at back-to-back fund-raisers in Los Angeles on Sept. 16.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: Senator Barack Obama, who spoke Monday in Flint, Mich., has bypassed federal financing, giving him more freedom but requiring continuing fund-raising. (PHOTOGRAPH BY CHRIS CARLSON/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
A worker for the Democratic National Committee canvassed on the Upper West Side of Manhattan on Monday, trying to raise money on behalf of the Obama campaign. (PHOTOGRAPH BY JACOB SILBERBERG FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)(A20)
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The New York Times
September 9, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
Surprise Me Most
BYLINE: By DAVID BROOKS
SECTION: Section A; Column 0; Editorial Desk; OP-ED COLUMNIST; Pg. 27
LENGTH: 801 words
None of us have ever lived through an election at a time when 80 percent of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction. But now that we're in the thick of it, a few things are clear. From voters, the demand is: Surprise Me Most. For candidates, the lesson is: Weirdness Wins.
Last winter, Barack Obama succeeded by running a weird campaign. He wasn't just a normal politician aiming for office, he was going to cleanse the country of the baby-boom culture war mentality. In his soaring speeches, he denounced the mores of both the Clinton and Bush eras and made an argument for unity and hope over endless partisan warfare.
But over the course of the spring, Obama's campaign got less weird. The crucial pivot came when he failed to seize on McCain's offer to do a series of joint town-hall meetings across the country. Those meetings would have elevated the race and shown that Obama is willing to take risks in order to truly change the way things are done.
Instead, Obama's speeches became more conventional, more policy-specific and more orthodox. His Denver acceptance speech was different from his Iowa speeches. It was more traditionally anti-Republican and pro-Democratic. In the speech's crucial contrast Obama declared: ''It's time for them to own their failure. It's time for us to change America. You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.''
As David Broder noted, Obama's speech ''subordinated any talk of fundamental systemic change to a checklist of traditional Democratic programs.''
It is easy to see why Obama might tack this way. Democrats have a huge advantage in a straight-up issue contest. McCain is vulnerable on health care and the economy.
But by campaigning in this traditional way, Obama ceded the weirdness edge to McCain.
The old warrior jumped right in. Think about how weird last week was. The Republican convention was one long protest against the way the Republicans themselves have run Washington. McCain's convention speech barely mentioned his own party. His vice-presidential nominee came out of the blue and seems totally unlike the regular crowd of former eighth-grade class presidents who normally dominate public life. McCain's campaign ideology, exemplified in a new ad released on Monday, is not familiar conservatism. It's maverickism -- against the entrenched powers and party orthodoxies.
And it all worked. McCain got a huge postconvention bounce in the polls.
Now the campaign has become a battle between two different definitions of change. The Obama camp has become the champion of policy change -- after eight years of failed Bush-McCain policies, it is time for different, Democratic ones. The McCain campaign is the champion of systemic change -- after two decades of bickering and self-dealing, its time to shake up the whole system in order to get things done.
The Obama change is more responsible and specific, but it has all the weirdness of a Brookings Institution report. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.) The McCain promise of change is comprehensive and vehement, though it's hard to know how it would actually work in office.
It will still be hard for McCain to win in this environment, but his emphasis on broad systemic change may appeal to swing voters. Independent voters do not believe the country's problems can be solved merely by replacing Republicans with Democrats. They cast a pox on both houses. That's why they're independents.
Furthermore, the maverick theme allows McCain to talk directly about character. Obama can hint at his values when he describes his tax cuts and health care plans, but he is indirect. Most voters, especially ones who decide late, vote on character over policies.
If I were advising the candidates, I'd tell them to double down on weirdness. Obama needs to occasionally criticize his own side. If he can't take on his own party hacks, he'll never reclaim the mantle of systemic change. Specifically, he needs to attack the snobs who are savaging Sarah Palin's faith and family. Many liberals claim to love working-class families, but the moment they glimpse a hunter with an uneven college record, they hop on chairs and call for disinfectant. Obama needs to attack Bill Maher for calling her a stewardess and the rest of the coastal condescenders.
If I were McCain, I'd make the divided government argument explicit. The Republicans are intellectually unfit to govern right now, but balancing with Democrats, they might be able to do some good. I'd have McCain tell the country that he looks forward to working with Congressional Democrats, that he is confident they can achieve great things together.
The candidates probably won't take this kind of advice. But remember: Weirdness wins. Surprise me most.
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The New York Times
September 9, 2008 Tuesday
Late Edition - Final
A Risky High-Wire Act
BYLINE: By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ; Bill Vlasic contributed reporting.
SECTION: Section C; Column 0; Business/Financial Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1190 words
Is the definition of companies that are ''too big to fail'' getting broader? Or are some industries simply more important than others?
The seizure of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the second time this year, after the rescue of Bear Stearns, that Washington has intervened to prevent a financial collapse.
Now, troubled automakers in the United States are also looking for help, in the form of loans to finance the development of new energy-efficient cars.
Until now, the bailout efforts have largely been reactive, with Washington throwing lifelines over the last decade to businesses in the airline and insurance industries in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and, more recently, those on Wall Street.
Now, many in the financial industry say a more formal debate is needed to set criteria to guide decisions on future requests for help from individual companies or industries. For example, should a large airline be allowed to fail while an automaker is bailed out? Or might one investment bank be judged as less critical to Wall Street's overall solvency than another?
''This presents a very important policy question that people are going to be grappling with for a long time,'' said Robert E. Rubin, who was Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and is now a senior adviser at Citigroup. ''Bear was not too big to fail; it was too interconnected. Fannie and Freddie are both.''
Hard choices have been made in the past -- the once-powerful American steel industry was allowed to shrink to a shadow of its former self.
When Washington did ride to the rescue, the overall risk to the economy was considered greater than the downside of providing help -- what economists call ''moral hazard,'' referring to the risk that helping a faltering company will only encourage others to take even greater risks on the assumption that the government will always be there to provide a backstop.
Mr. Rubin said that the moral hazard problem was ''extremely important.'' But with Fannie's and Freddie's shareholders practically wiped out, ''the principle has been upheld,'' he added.
Shares of both companies closed below $1 on Monday, down from more than $60 a year ago. Bear Stearns shareholders fared slightly better, ultimately receiving $10 a share, but that was still a fraction of what the shares commanded before the rescue effort in March.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are unusual because of their longstanding relationship with the federal government, but even supporters of the rescue plan say the move raises bigger questions.
''Do we live in a market economy or not?'' said Jonathan Koppell, director of the Millstein Center for Corporate Governance and Performance at Yale. ''If we do, it seems companies have to be allowed to fail. If we say companies can't fail because they're too big or the consequences are too great, we have something else.''
Foreign policy considerations are also driving the deal to help Fannie and Freddie. A substantial portion of their debt is held by central banks in Asia as well as by private financial institutions in Europe. A default, Mr. Koppell said, ''would make foreign governments scream that they thought they were doing business with the U.S.A. and would undermine their faith in America as a borrower.''
The most notable corporate rescues of recent years have involved financial firms, and that is no coincidence, said Sanford Jacoby, a professor of management at the University of California, Los Angeles. ''The financial sector is special, because so much in the financial markets is based on confidence,'' he said.
In addition, he said, financial firms now represent an outsize portion of corporate profits and a more powerful force in the economy than they did in the 1970s, when industrial companies were seen as symbols of American might, and Lockheed and Chrysler received government help.
In Chrysler's case, Congress extended a package of $1.5 billion in loan guarantees for the troubled carmaker, which had a work force of more than 100,000.
More recently, after the Sept. 11 attacks, Congress approved $15 billion in direct aid and loan guarantees to the nation's faltering airline industry.
Richard C. Breeden, a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and a key architect of the savings and loan bailout under President George H. W. Bush, said the criteria for a bailout should be whether ''the failure of a particular company will cause a ripple effect and otherwise healthy institutions will be forced into insolvency, affecting the overall economy.''
During his tenure at the S.E.C., he noted, the government did not step in to prevent the collapse of Drexel Burnham after a scandal involving insider trading and abuses in the junk bond market.
This time around, Mr. Breeden said, shoring up Fannie and Freddie ''wasn't even a close call.'' Failing to do so, he added, ''would have caused a wave of problems to institutions around the world, and that's a wave big enough to drown a lot of people.''
On the other hand, helping American automakers might have strong political support but does not meet this economic test, Mr. Breeden said.
''If you're trying to win the electoral votes of Michigan, you can promise who knows what, but in terms of risks to the entire economy, it's not as immediate a threat,'' he said.
In recent months, the automakers' finances have been deteriorating, and Senators John McCain and Barack Obama have voiced support for providing billions in loans to automakers in Detroit.
On Monday, the chief executive of the Ford Motor Company, Alan R. Mulally, said he expected broad support in Congress for a loan program to help automakers accelerate their development of more fuel-efficient vehicles.
In his first public comments on the issue, Mr. Mulally defended a proposed $25 billion loan package as a critical piece of a larger mandate to improve fuel-economy standards.
The loan program is drawing additional scrutiny because of the federal government's decision to take over the finances of Fannie and Freddie, but Mr. Mulally said his industry was seeking a very different kind of assistance.
He said the bailouts of Freddie and Fannie had little in common with the incentive program for manufacturing advanced-technology vehicles written into the fuel-economy bill.
''I absolutely don't think it's a bailout,'' Mr. Mulally said Monday. ''It's going to be a loan at lower interest rates with a caveat to pay it back.''
The loans are tied to an energy bill signed last year to raise corporate average fuel economy standards for cars and trucks by 40 percent by 2020.
Ford, as well as General Motors and Chrysler, is hoping that funding for the program can be completed before Congress finishes its abbreviated legislative session this month. The Detroit automakers are still discussing whether their chief executives will appear together in Washington to push for the money.
G.M.'s chief executive, Rick Wagoner, is expected to address the need for the loan program during an appearance at a Senate Energy Committee panel discussion on Friday.
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GRAPHIC: PHOTOS: In 2002, airline executives testified at a House subcommittee about the financial condition of the industry, which received aid after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. (PHOTOGRAPH BY HYUNGWON KANG/REUTERS)
From left, John Swearingen, chairman of Continental Illinois, in 1984, and James Dimon, of JPMorgan Chase, and Alan Schwartz, of Bear Stearns, in April. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY, LEFT TO RIGHT, MARK ELIAS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
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USA TODAY
September 9, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Very different visions;
The conventions clearly demonstrated why the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are still worlds apart.
BYLINE: Jonah Goldberg
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 13A
LENGTH: 969 words
During the political conventions, we were swamped with a lot of punditry about stagecraft, statistics, polls and politics. We heard over and over again about appeals to this or that constituency.
Did that one satisfy small-business men? Did Joe Biden fix Barack Obama's problem with Catholics? Did Sarah Palin, the lipsticked pit bull, peel off Hillaryites from the Democratic fold? And who is speaking for the indispensable left-handed Samoans living on fixed incomes in the increasingly gay suburbs around Cleveland?
Well, here's a crazy thought: Maybe the Democrats and Republicans actually believe what they said and said what they believe. Perhaps the multiday infomercials put on in St. Paul and Denver should be seen for what the producers wanted them to be: a vision statement. And if that's the case, then the old saw about how there's not a dime's worth of difference between the two parties can only be true if we're talking about one really big dime.
Winners and losers
Perhaps the chief thematic difference between the two parties last week is this: One party is for losers and the other for winners. Now, I don't mean that Democrats are losers in the sense that they never got picked for softball, went to the prom with their favorite aunt or uncle, or any of that sort of thing. After all, the Democratic Party has almost cornered the market on the beautiful people and the hipsters. Heck, Rolling Stone has essentially become the house organ of the Democratic National Committee, and MTV serves as the Democrats' main youth outreach program. Rather, the Democrats cast themselves as the party for the losers in society, those who've been left behind, hurt, left homeless, literally or figuratively, by the gales of the supposedly cruel free market.
And, of course, that speaks well of them (whatever the merits of their policies may be). But after four nights of relentless hype about America's misery, the average viewer of the Democratic convention could be forgiven for thinking it was being held in Pyongyang, North Korea, instead of Denver. In the Democrats' America, it sounds as if we're all living off tree bark.
Vice presidential nominee Biden ad-libbed a line about how when he looked out the window of his Amtrak train at night, he could see the "flickering lights" of families huddled around their tables trying to figure out how to make ends meet. Apparently, the electric light bulb hasn't reached Delaware.
Meanwhile, the Republicans' message was aimed at winners. Again, I don't mean in the juvenile sense of popularity. Indeed, as much as both parties would like to blur the fact, many of the "losers" in today's economy are parts of the Republican coalition and certainly key voters for a John McCain victory (which is why McCain and Obama's speeches had so many similarities). The culturally conservative, working class, rural voters -- the sorts of voters Obama says cling to guns and God -- are feeling the pinch of the global economy more than perhaps any other demographic.
GOP upbeat on economy
Even so, the GOP message on economics is one of Reaganite optimism. Obama lamented the effects of global trade, while McCain celebrated the prosperity that comes with opening markets. Even Mike Huckabee, who generally speaks for economically downscale Republicans, highlighted the difference: "I'm not a Republican because I grew up rich," he proclaimed, "I'm a Republican because I didn't want to spend the rest of my life poor, waiting for the government to rescue me."
Contrast that with Obama's lament that more Americans own cars "you can't afford to drive" and "credit card bills you can't afford to pay." He concedes that these problems "are not all of government's making" and then proceeds to explain why they are all largely the government's responsibility to solve. Hillary Clinton has admitted she ran for president "to stand up for all those who have been invisible to their government for eight long years." Suffice it to say, it is the dream of a great many Republicans to be invisible to their government. Consider the VP picks. Joe "the Scranton scrapper" Biden claims to speak for allegedly Dickensian working class folks suffering by flickering lamplight. Sarah Palin's whole persona is that she is working class, but the last thing she looks like is a victim in need of government charity.
On national security issues, the winner-loser gap is even more stark. Speaker after speaker at the Democratic convention expressed "support" for the troops and promised to bring them home from Iraq. Left out was any sense that the troops might actually want to win, never mind have their recent victories celebrated. Instead, the impression left by the Democrats, from Michelle Obama on Monday to her husband on Thursday, was of a military cruelly exploited and manipulated and now desperately in need of "mental health care," in Mrs. Obama's words. No Republican would say returning troops deserve anything but the best, but for the GOP the troops are heroes in pursuit of victory, not dupes in search of a handout. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina summed it up well: "Victory! You can say it at this convention. We are winning!"
Of course, none of this is really new. Franklin Roosevelt transformed American politics by recasting the relationship between the government and its people to that of caretaker and client, and the Democrats remain the party of Roosevelt. The challenge for the Democrats is that they've somehow lost their Rooseveltian optimism, to the point where they're the Downer Party.
The challenge for the Republicans is perhaps more acute: a majority of voters might think now is the time for the Downer Party.
Jonah Goldberg, editor at large of National Review Online and author of Liberal Fascism, is a member of USA TODAY's board of contributors.
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USA TODAY
September 9, 2008 Tuesday
FINAL EDITION
Disconnect on Palin's bridge line
BYLINE: Mark Memmott
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 4A
LENGTH: 382 words
The presidential campaigns of Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain accused each other of lying Monday after McCain's team released its latest commercial.
Called Original Mavericks, the 30-second ad makes the case that it is Arizona Sen. McCain and running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin who will bring "real change" to Washington.
The script
Narrator: "The original mavericks. He fights pork-barrel spending. She stopped the 'Bridge to Nowhere.' He took on the drug industry. She took on big oil. He battled Republicans and reformed Washington. She battled Republicans and reformed Alaska.
"They'll make history. They'll change Washington.
"McCain. Palin. Real change."
The images
The ad begins with the faces of McCain and Palin, together -- to reinforce the message that they are a team. An American flag is in the background.
Then, as the narrator runs through the statements about each person, the images flip from McCain to Palin and back again.
As the ad comes to its end, the two are together again.
Reality check
It's the claim that Palin "stopped the 'Bridge to Nowhere'" that sparked the dispute. The reference is to a proposed bridge to a remote Alaskan community that would have cost the U.S. government more than $200.million Palin has said repeatedly that she told the federal government: "Thanks, but no thanks."
As a candidate for governor, however, Palin supported the bridge.
"We need to come to the defense of southeast Alaska when proposals are on the table, like the bridge, and not allow the spinmeisters to turn this project or any other into something that's so negative," Palin said in August 2006, according to the Ketchikan Daily News.
The non-partisan FactCheck.org has called Palin's claim that she blocked the project "a bridge too far."
When the ad was released, Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton issued a statement accusing McCain's campaign of repeating a "lie." McCain campaign spokesman Brian Rogers issued a statement calling Burton's claim a "hysterical" attack and saying it was the Obama team that was lying because Palin "ultimately canceled the wasteful project."
Where it's playing
The McCain campaign says Original Mavericks will run on some national cable networks and in some of the so-called battleground states, where the race is expected to be close.
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